Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.
Speaker 2: Joining us now after extensive travel, thrilled you? Good, fine
Speaker 2: time to start us off this morning, Daniel Day us
Speaker 2: in Singapore. How do you get back to like the
Speaker 2: golf stream always got the web bush golf stream blowblight
Speaker 2: out of technology for web bushes, Stan I just I
Speaker 2: want to look forward. What did you learn from Nvidia yesterday?
Speaker 2: That's part of the AI story of the other ten stocks.
Speaker 3: I mean it's all about Blackwell that's fueling. I mean
Speaker 3: eleven billion that shows. I mean this is manage rejectory
Speaker 3: fifteen to twenty billion a quarter. So if you had
Speaker 3: any concerns, it's the opposite Big tech, other enterprises, they're
Speaker 3: doubling down. That's the multiplier factor cross tech. For every
Speaker 3: dollar spent on a video chip, eight ten dollars spent
Speaker 3: across to us attack.
Speaker 2: What is your ex exis do when you look at
Speaker 2: technology develop and we'll talk to man deep sing about
Speaker 2: this at a moment, dan Ie, do you have like
Speaker 2: a timeline out on Nvidia? Do you have a terminal
Speaker 2: value on in video that's appropriate seven years?
Speaker 1: What is it?
Speaker 3: I think two to two twenty five to me is
Speaker 3: ultimately going to be sort of the base cases this
Speaker 3: plays out, and again you're not gonna need like the
Speaker 3: massive blowouts. They stay in this trajectory outside of some
Speaker 3: black swan and the Bears will always hold for that
Speaker 3: like they have the last decade. I think this is
Speaker 3: a four an ultimately five trillion dollars markup as it
Speaker 3: plays out. There is one red food in the world
Speaker 3: for these chips, and he's wearing a black leather jacket.
Speaker 3: His name is Jensen Dan.
Speaker 4: Talk to us about the just catalysts for this name.
Speaker 4: You know, it's it's really unusual for Nvidia shareholders to
Speaker 4: look down at their Bloomberg screen and see year to
Speaker 4: date sucks, you know, down a couple of percent here,
Speaker 4: not to see green on the screen here. What's the
Speaker 4: next catalyst do you think for this stock?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think catalysts now clearly going forward, you're going
Speaker 3: to continue to focus on what Blackwell demand looks like.
Speaker 3: Right and in the video you know, they'll have their
Speaker 3: conference in March. I think that's going to be a
Speaker 3: sort of spectacle that's gonna you know, they're launching pad
Speaker 3: for Jensen Foreign video and look, and I think there
Speaker 3: was all smoke, no fire, and I just continue. And
Speaker 3: we've talked about on the show Deep Seek is bullish
Speaker 3: for in video and big tech. It's not the opposite,
Speaker 3: despite you know many of the barrizone fire in a
Speaker 3: crowd theater.
Speaker 2: If you're just joining us, folks at Man Deep sign
Speaker 2: will be with us in a moment. From Bloomberg Intelligence,
Speaker 2: we start with Daniel Ives of web Bush. They're head
Speaker 2: of technology. For those of you on Bloomberg Radio, it
Speaker 2: is critical to point out Ives with the Penn State
Speaker 2: Knitney Lions merch in the background this morning at Penn's State,
Speaker 2: Dan Eyes, they're going to have to do a rebuy
Speaker 2: of Apple technology. We have Mark Germi in four or five,
Speaker 2: six days ago and we started with a chip and
Speaker 2: you know it's like Man Deep sing talk and Dan
Speaker 2: and I's German was riveting about the technological veracity of
Speaker 2: the Apple story. Do you agree?
Speaker 1: Oh?
Speaker 3: I think the best is yet to come because I did,
Speaker 3: and German's talked about it as well. But the consumer
Speaker 3: AI revolution comes from Coupertino. They're a toll collector. China
Speaker 3: app us APP Australia doesn't matter. In other words, it's
Speaker 3: about that. In stallwas I continue to think that is
Speaker 3: going to incrementally add sixty seventy dollars per share the
Speaker 3: AI story, the incremental services, and that doesn't include a
Speaker 3: new form factor chip and just more and more control
Speaker 3: of their ecosystem.
Speaker 4: Dan, how did the company kind of position the deep
Speaker 4: seek issue as a competitor out there in the marketplace?
Speaker 3: I think actually someone of the rest of the big ten.
Speaker 3: It's actually it's a positive the models. The more innovative
Speaker 3: the models get, the cheaper they get, the more use case,
Speaker 3: the more GPU capacity. In other words, like that's why
Speaker 3: like that because everyone here and you guys talk about
Speaker 3: all the time, like everyone's waiting for where's the cracks
Speaker 3: in the armor smoke? Is this the AI bubble? But
Speaker 3: we've talked about this two trillion of cap backs next
Speaker 3: three years, Big Tech span three hundred and thirty billion
Speaker 3: this year. You can find cracks, but you're not going
Speaker 3: to find it here. And I think that's what you
Speaker 3: saw last night in terms of really the demand there
Speaker 3: was no I thought Gens was actually more bullish than
Speaker 3: even what he was a few months ago.
Speaker 2: Daniel, I thank you so much. Get some sleep too
Speaker 2: early traveling worldwide with US with wet Bush well rested.
Speaker 2: Mandeep Singh joins us right now, senior technology analysts for
Speaker 2: Bloomberg Intelligence. The distinction here man deep designs is doing
Speaker 2: by old cell trying to make money. You're looking at
Speaker 2: the industry holistically. If I'm such in a della and
Speaker 2: I'm listening in Vidia yesterday, what did Microsoft learn from
Speaker 2: the the Nvidia conference call?
Speaker 1: Yeah, look, I think Dan mentioned about black Vell ramping
Speaker 1: up nicely. Contributed eleven billion dollars in the quarter, So
Speaker 1: that means that video is really ramping up nicely with
Speaker 1: its new architecture. In fact, they laid out the plan
Speaker 1: for black Belt Ultra, so they're moving very fast when
Speaker 1: it comes to the advances with the chips. So one
Speaker 1: I would say, you know, data point that didn't do
Speaker 1: very well was on the networking side, so they had
Speaker 1: a second sequential decline in networking revenue. And if I
Speaker 1: try to tie that in, you know with the size
Speaker 1: of clusters. Again, in AI, there are these two main concepts,
Speaker 1: training versus inferencing. Training is driven by the size of clusters,
Speaker 1: and then if you have a bigger cluster, you have
Speaker 1: to network it in a way where it's coher and
Speaker 1: then you know you could use it for your training purposes.
Speaker 1: So the fact that in Vidia's networking revenue decline sequentially,
Speaker 1: again it's off a very strong base, it tells you
Speaker 1: that there may be a slight pause when it comes
Speaker 1: to building these bigger clusters and Nvidio is the most
Speaker 1: exposed to that you know trend. So from that perspective,
Speaker 1: I think you could ask yourself given their valuation, I mean,
Speaker 1: clearly a lot is baked in in terms of growth
Speaker 1: and the outer years is what everyone is worried about.
Speaker 1: Can Nvidia sustain this momentum in you know, the outer
Speaker 1: years twenty twenty seven, twenty eight and beyond. And I
Speaker 1: don't think we got an answer last night in terms
Speaker 1: of how this could drive it. And the other data
Speaker 1: point I would call is the China sales. I mean
Speaker 1: it's half of where it was before they export controls,
Speaker 1: and their guide doesn't bake in the fact that if
Speaker 1: tariffs go into effect then it would be a much
Speaker 1: bigger hit on the roast margin, which actually fell three
Speaker 1: hundred paces on.
Speaker 4: So, following up on that, mat Man Deep, how did
Speaker 4: Gensi Zwang kind of characterize the whle tariff environment, that
Speaker 4: trade environment between China and the West.
Speaker 1: Yeah, he didn't explain much. Neither did the CFO in
Speaker 1: terms of what could go wrong. I mean, as of now,
Speaker 1: what they said was China sales is half of before
Speaker 1: the export controls went into effect under Biden. And look,
Speaker 1: if they tightened the export controls, which is a very
Speaker 1: likely scenario given what we have heard from the administration,
Speaker 1: then China sales could go to zero by the end
Speaker 1: of a year. And when you think about upside, I mean,
Speaker 1: given Nvidia has said this trend of beat and races,
Speaker 1: which they did last night as well, you have to
Speaker 1: ask to yourself where will that upside come from. If
Speaker 1: China sales, which was as big as you know, twenty
Speaker 1: percent of the overall sales at one point, now it's
Speaker 1: much smaller around ten percent. Will will that have an
Speaker 1: impact in terms of you know, the BDA and a restaurant.
Speaker 2: Joining us on your commuter crass nation. Mandeep Singh with
Speaker 2: us with Bloomberg Intelligence on your technology holdings