WEBVTT - Dan Ives and Mandeep Singh on Nvidia earnings

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news.

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<v Speaker 2>Joining us now after extensive travel, thrilled you? Good, fine

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<v Speaker 2>time to start us off this morning, Daniel Day us

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<v Speaker 2>in Singapore. How do you get back to like the

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<v Speaker 2>golf stream always got the web bush golf stream blowblight

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<v Speaker 2>out of technology for web bushes, Stan I just I

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<v Speaker 2>want to look forward. What did you learn from Nvidia yesterday?

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<v Speaker 2>That's part of the AI story of the other ten stocks.

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<v Speaker 3>I mean it's all about Blackwell that's fueling. I mean

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<v Speaker 3>eleven billion that shows. I mean this is manage rejectory

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<v Speaker 3>fifteen to twenty billion a quarter. So if you had

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<v Speaker 3>any concerns, it's the opposite Big tech, other enterprises, they're

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<v Speaker 3>doubling down. That's the multiplier factor cross tech. For every

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<v Speaker 3>dollar spent on a video chip, eight ten dollars spent

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<v Speaker 3>across to us attack.

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<v Speaker 2>What is your ex exis do when you look at

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<v Speaker 2>technology develop and we'll talk to man deep sing about

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<v Speaker 2>this at a moment, dan Ie, do you have like

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<v Speaker 2>a timeline out on Nvidia? Do you have a terminal

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<v Speaker 2>value on in video that's appropriate seven years?

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<v Speaker 1>What is it?

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<v Speaker 3>I think two to two twenty five to me is

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<v Speaker 3>ultimately going to be sort of the base cases this

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<v Speaker 3>plays out, and again you're not gonna need like the

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<v Speaker 3>massive blowouts. They stay in this trajectory outside of some

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<v Speaker 3>black swan and the Bears will always hold for that

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<v Speaker 3>like they have the last decade. I think this is

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<v Speaker 3>a four an ultimately five trillion dollars markup as it

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<v Speaker 3>plays out. There is one red food in the world

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<v Speaker 3>for these chips, and he's wearing a black leather jacket.

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<v Speaker 3>His name is Jensen Dan.

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<v Speaker 4>Talk to us about the just catalysts for this name.

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<v Speaker 4>You know, it's it's really unusual for Nvidia shareholders to

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<v Speaker 4>look down at their Bloomberg screen and see year to

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<v Speaker 4>date sucks, you know, down a couple of percent here,

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<v Speaker 4>not to see green on the screen here. What's the

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<v Speaker 4>next catalyst do you think for this stock?

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<v Speaker 3>Yeah, I think catalysts now clearly going forward, you're going

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<v Speaker 3>to continue to focus on what Blackwell demand looks like.

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<v Speaker 3>Right and in the video you know, they'll have their

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<v Speaker 3>conference in March. I think that's going to be a

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<v Speaker 3>sort of spectacle that's gonna you know, they're launching pad

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<v Speaker 3>for Jensen Foreign video and look, and I think there

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<v Speaker 3>was all smoke, no fire, and I just continue. And

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<v Speaker 3>we've talked about on the show Deep Seek is bullish

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<v Speaker 3>for in video and big tech. It's not the opposite,

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<v Speaker 3>despite you know many of the barrizone fire in a

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<v Speaker 3>crowd theater.

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<v Speaker 2>If you're just joining us, folks at Man Deep sign

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<v Speaker 2>will be with us in a moment. From Bloomberg Intelligence,

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<v Speaker 2>we start with Daniel Ives of web Bush. They're head

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<v Speaker 2>of technology. For those of you on Bloomberg Radio, it

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<v Speaker 2>is critical to point out Ives with the Penn State

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<v Speaker 2>Knitney Lions merch in the background this morning at Penn's State,

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<v Speaker 2>Dan Eyes, they're going to have to do a rebuy

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<v Speaker 2>of Apple technology. We have Mark Germi in four or five,

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<v Speaker 2>six days ago and we started with a chip and

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<v Speaker 2>you know it's like Man Deep sing talk and Dan

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<v Speaker 2>and I's German was riveting about the technological veracity of

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<v Speaker 2>the Apple story. Do you agree?

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<v Speaker 1>Oh?

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<v Speaker 3>I think the best is yet to come because I did,

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<v Speaker 3>and German's talked about it as well. But the consumer

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<v Speaker 3>AI revolution comes from Coupertino. They're a toll collector. China

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<v Speaker 3>app us APP Australia doesn't matter. In other words, it's

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<v Speaker 3>about that. In stallwas I continue to think that is

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<v Speaker 3>going to incrementally add sixty seventy dollars per share the

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<v Speaker 3>AI story, the incremental services, and that doesn't include a

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<v Speaker 3>new form factor chip and just more and more control

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<v Speaker 3>of their ecosystem.

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<v Speaker 4>Dan, how did the company kind of position the deep

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<v Speaker 4>seek issue as a competitor out there in the marketplace?

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<v Speaker 3>I think actually someone of the rest of the big ten.

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<v Speaker 3>It's actually it's a positive the models. The more innovative

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<v Speaker 3>the models get, the cheaper they get, the more use case,

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<v Speaker 3>the more GPU capacity. In other words, like that's why

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<v Speaker 3>like that because everyone here and you guys talk about

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<v Speaker 3>all the time, like everyone's waiting for where's the cracks

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<v Speaker 3>in the armor smoke? Is this the AI bubble? But

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<v Speaker 3>we've talked about this two trillion of cap backs next

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<v Speaker 3>three years, Big Tech span three hundred and thirty billion

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<v Speaker 3>this year. You can find cracks, but you're not going

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<v Speaker 3>to find it here. And I think that's what you

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<v Speaker 3>saw last night in terms of really the demand there

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<v Speaker 3>was no I thought Gens was actually more bullish than

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<v Speaker 3>even what he was a few months ago.

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<v Speaker 2>Daniel, I thank you so much. Get some sleep too

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<v Speaker 2>early traveling worldwide with US with wet Bush well rested.

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<v Speaker 2>Mandeep Singh joins us right now, senior technology analysts for

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg Intelligence. The distinction here man deep designs is doing

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<v Speaker 2>by old cell trying to make money. You're looking at

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<v Speaker 2>the industry holistically. If I'm such in a della and

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<v Speaker 2>I'm listening in Vidia yesterday, what did Microsoft learn from

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<v Speaker 2>the the Nvidia conference call?

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, look, I think Dan mentioned about black Vell ramping

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<v Speaker 1>up nicely. Contributed eleven billion dollars in the quarter, So

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<v Speaker 1>that means that video is really ramping up nicely with

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<v Speaker 1>its new architecture. In fact, they laid out the plan

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<v Speaker 1>for black Belt Ultra, so they're moving very fast when

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<v Speaker 1>it comes to the advances with the chips. So one

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<v Speaker 1>I would say, you know, data point that didn't do

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<v Speaker 1>very well was on the networking side, so they had

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<v Speaker 1>a second sequential decline in networking revenue. And if I

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<v Speaker 1>try to tie that in, you know with the size

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<v Speaker 1>of clusters. Again, in AI, there are these two main concepts,

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<v Speaker 1>training versus inferencing. Training is driven by the size of clusters,

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<v Speaker 1>and then if you have a bigger cluster, you have

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<v Speaker 1>to network it in a way where it's coher and

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<v Speaker 1>then you know you could use it for your training purposes.

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<v Speaker 1>So the fact that in Vidia's networking revenue decline sequentially,

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<v Speaker 1>again it's off a very strong base, it tells you

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<v Speaker 1>that there may be a slight pause when it comes

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<v Speaker 1>to building these bigger clusters and Nvidio is the most

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<v Speaker 1>exposed to that you know trend. So from that perspective,

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<v Speaker 1>I think you could ask yourself given their valuation, I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>clearly a lot is baked in in terms of growth

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<v Speaker 1>and the outer years is what everyone is worried about.

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<v Speaker 1>Can Nvidia sustain this momentum in you know, the outer

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<v Speaker 1>years twenty twenty seven, twenty eight and beyond. And I

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<v Speaker 1>don't think we got an answer last night in terms

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<v Speaker 1>of how this could drive it. And the other data

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<v Speaker 1>point I would call is the China sales. I mean

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<v Speaker 1>it's half of where it was before they export controls,

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<v Speaker 1>and their guide doesn't bake in the fact that if

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<v Speaker 1>tariffs go into effect then it would be a much

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<v Speaker 1>bigger hit on the roast margin, which actually fell three

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<v Speaker 1>hundred paces on.

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<v Speaker 4>So, following up on that, mat Man Deep, how did

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<v Speaker 4>Gensi Zwang kind of characterize the whle tariff environment, that

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<v Speaker 4>trade environment between China and the West.

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<v Speaker 1>Yeah, he didn't explain much. Neither did the CFO in

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<v Speaker 1>terms of what could go wrong. I mean, as of now,

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<v Speaker 1>what they said was China sales is half of before

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<v Speaker 1>the export controls went into effect under Biden. And look,

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<v Speaker 1>if they tightened the export controls, which is a very

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<v Speaker 1>likely scenario given what we have heard from the administration,

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<v Speaker 1>then China sales could go to zero by the end

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<v Speaker 1>of a year. And when you think about upside, I mean,

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<v Speaker 1>given Nvidia has said this trend of beat and races,

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<v Speaker 1>which they did last night as well, you have to

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<v Speaker 1>ask to yourself where will that upside come from. If

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<v Speaker 1>China sales, which was as big as you know, twenty

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<v Speaker 1>percent of the overall sales at one point, now it's

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<v Speaker 1>much smaller around ten percent. Will will that have an

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<v Speaker 1>impact in terms of you know, the BDA and a restaurant.

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<v Speaker 2>Joining us on your commuter crass nation. Mandeep Singh with

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<v Speaker 2>us with Bloomberg Intelligence on your technology holdings