WEBVTT - Gold’s Record-Breaking Run and Geopolitical Conspiracy Theories

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. Welcome to the Merton

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<v Speaker 1>Talks Money weekly round up, debrief and the biggest stories

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<v Speaker 1>in Marcus and economics this week. I'm join Stepicks, senior

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<v Speaker 1>reporter and author of the Money Distilled newsletter Meurn's out

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<v Speaker 1>this week, so I'm again in the driver's seat and

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<v Speaker 1>back by popular demand, we have none other than Bloomberg opinions.

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<v Speaker 1>Marcus Ashworth. Hih hi Marcus. So today we're gonna get

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<v Speaker 1>any exactly exactly macro. That's a famously easy to predict

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<v Speaker 1>and forecast thing that no Hedge one managers ever come

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<v Speaker 1>a cropper from attempting to do. But I thought we could

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<v Speaker 1>start with gold because gold has been the obvious big

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<v Speaker 1>story this week. I think with so it's a new

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<v Speaker 1>record in dollars, also an ay speG growing number in pounds,

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<v Speaker 1>twenty one hundred squadter owns. And I suppose I'd just

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<v Speaker 1>like to get your views or in why this is happening.

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<v Speaker 2>Just know, well, I like commodities generally. I think clearly

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<v Speaker 2>gold is you know, just a technical analysis overview is

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<v Speaker 2>clearly going to carry on pushing up to new highs.

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<v Speaker 2>If you were just take the fundamentals away, so it's

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<v Speaker 2>trading in a certainly an abolished format. The fundamental reasons

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<v Speaker 2>behind gold going up, I've got no idea. I don't

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<v Speaker 2>think anyone does quite clearly what gold is being driven

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<v Speaker 2>by in recent months and what have you. Is, in essence,

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<v Speaker 2>is something bad is going on the one It doesn't

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<v Speaker 2>matter where in the world it's going back. For instance,

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<v Speaker 2>let's we can see that a lot of money still

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<v Speaker 2>coming out of China as in individual investors trying to

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<v Speaker 2>sort of perhaps put something away where it can be

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<v Speaker 2>literally for any day. So driving I think it's just simple.

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<v Speaker 2>It's it's it's constant demand.

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<v Speaker 1>You know.

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<v Speaker 2>It could be what's going on in the Middle East.

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<v Speaker 2>People want to want to get some money off shore.

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<v Speaker 2>It could be indeed, still the ongoing main driver, I

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<v Speaker 2>think is something from both China and in the state,

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<v Speaker 2>but equally much more in individuals.

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<v Speaker 1>And so because gold you can see as one with

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<v Speaker 1>stuff from a capital fleet from China, cant is that

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<v Speaker 1>fair to see it? Because Chinese people can move it

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<v Speaker 1>to gold exactly that and even although it's stell end China,

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<v Speaker 1>it's kind of not. It's what goes on.

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<v Speaker 2>Well, I'm not sure holding it in China, But that's

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<v Speaker 2>sort of not the point, really, isn't it. But yeah, look,

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<v Speaker 2>I think it's it doesn't matter where in the world

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<v Speaker 2>if something's going really bad and people need to get

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<v Speaker 2>money off. Sure, you know, we know what happens with

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<v Speaker 2>bitcoin from time to time, and gold is in essence

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<v Speaker 2>exactly that. Now you can extrapolate a lot of other

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<v Speaker 2>fundamental drive of what's going on in the world. We

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<v Speaker 2>can see bon yeos going up a lot, everyone's worrying

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<v Speaker 2>about fiscal plans for whoever the next US president might be.

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<v Speaker 2>I don't think that is necessarily the primary diur of gold,

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<v Speaker 2>but I don't think it's holding gold back. Sometimes you

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<v Speaker 2>would think gold would be going the other way because

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<v Speaker 2>of that, But actual fact clear at the moment as

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<v Speaker 2>that it's a momentum trade and people are prepared to

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<v Speaker 2>be quite happily long it. And because if something bad

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<v Speaker 2>goes on on November fifth, sixth seventh, you know, at

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<v Speaker 2>least you know you've got something which is doing it's

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<v Speaker 2>an instancy's silver starting to move as well, because that's

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<v Speaker 2>the sort of the higher beta gold, and that my

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<v Speaker 2>view is that gold is you can't really call it

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<v Speaker 2>an asset in a normal sense of the word, but

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<v Speaker 2>it's it's a barometer of other sort of fear and

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<v Speaker 2>greed in excellence. Both both benefits you, both in greed

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<v Speaker 2>terms and in fir terms at the moment.

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<v Speaker 1>So that was getting well, just a couple of things

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<v Speaker 1>because at the very start there you said can elate

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<v Speaker 1>commodities at the moment, because that's essentially because commodities generally,

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<v Speaker 1>so gold has been growing up, but and places may

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<v Speaker 1>also have been going up bit coppered and the world

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<v Speaker 1>or the rest of them. And oil, I say, it's

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<v Speaker 1>the obvious wine as well, haven't haven't actually been going

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<v Speaker 1>the other week.

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<v Speaker 2>So I meant more soft than I should be more Yeah,

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<v Speaker 2>but I mean, you know, the point here is oil

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<v Speaker 2>is that it is you know, if you want to

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<v Speaker 2>look at one thing to tell you what the world's

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<v Speaker 2>economy is doing, not stop markets. You know, obviously you

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<v Speaker 2>can look at the value of the dollar, you can

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<v Speaker 2>look at the ten year US treasury yield, and you

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<v Speaker 2>would look at oil. And every time oil goes to

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<v Speaker 2>be fair below seventy in the moment, it's getting bought.

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<v Speaker 2>So it shows you that it's got quite a quite

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<v Speaker 2>a firm flaw at the moment, which is pretty low

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<v Speaker 2>in some senses. Quite clearly, you would expect a test

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<v Speaker 2>of fifty rather than a test of one hundred of the moment,

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<v Speaker 2>if you were looking at how the market's been training.

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<v Speaker 2>Every time it tries to rally on Middle East fears

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<v Speaker 2>and what have you, it comes straight back down again

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<v Speaker 2>fairly quickly. And it quite clear to my mind that

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<v Speaker 2>the jibilisical concerns and how oil relates to them as

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<v Speaker 2>is nowhere near as big as it perhaps once was.

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<v Speaker 2>You know, the question is that most people in oil,

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<v Speaker 2>all they focus on is is supply as opposed to demand.

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<v Speaker 2>What's interesting at the moment is that, you know, demand

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<v Speaker 2>is very strong actually, but supplies even stronger.

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<v Speaker 1>I see this. This is key, isn't it? Because you

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<v Speaker 1>would look at the oil place by itself and your

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<v Speaker 1>assumption would be oil goin do and means the global

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<v Speaker 1>economy is slowing. But that doesn't it seems to be

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<v Speaker 1>more to supply.

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah, which I know it should normally. Would you look oil,

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<v Speaker 2>you go okay, that's the economy is telling something that

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<v Speaker 2>the global economy that oil prices coming down. The other story,

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<v Speaker 2>which is harder to get into, and I wouldn't say

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<v Speaker 2>I'm an expert on this, but from what I can

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<v Speaker 2>understand is that the shift in China's demand is probably

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<v Speaker 2>permanently down because they're shifting to gasification. They're moving to

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<v Speaker 2>other types of ecologically more more more sound forms of

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<v Speaker 2>energy wind, solar, et cetera. And I think that is

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<v Speaker 2>quite a fundamental shift that they are going to be

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<v Speaker 2>requiring less and less oil deliberately. Yeah, that's a much

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<v Speaker 2>longer term thing, but you know, you want to have

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<v Speaker 2>to understand that, you know, China can move the old

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<v Speaker 2>market and has consistently. We will see what goes on

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<v Speaker 2>with India it still being requiring an awful lot of

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<v Speaker 2>hydro carbons, and other big economies in Asia particular like

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<v Speaker 2>Japan as well, But for the moment, you know, China

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<v Speaker 2>has always been the mover of this and that that

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<v Speaker 2>may well be no longer the case going going forward.

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<v Speaker 1>Can we get in the geopolitical conspiracy theories for famous?

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<v Speaker 2>Yeah?

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<v Speaker 1>See, because I mean obviously reading a few things and

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<v Speaker 1>obviously wine is it big sort of stories that always

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<v Speaker 1>checks about and there has been kicking a bit for

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<v Speaker 1>twenty UYGLS is this idea of China eventually having the

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<v Speaker 1>ui and or the n men.

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<v Speaker 2>Ben't you that MST named what a winning sort of

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<v Speaker 2>the bricks currency of choice?

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<v Speaker 1>Well, no, I I was thinking just just the yourn

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<v Speaker 1>rather than the bricks, because I think the bricks is

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<v Speaker 1>a sort of fever dream by you know, golden bitcoin,

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<v Speaker 1>kind of bugs with whom I have a certain amoent

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<v Speaker 1>the sympathy. But I think that one's just daft. But

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<v Speaker 1>what you're saying there is basically so if China is

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<v Speaker 1>building out electric vehicles to reduce its reliance on oil,

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<v Speaker 1>and presumably most of that electricity can be generated at home,

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<v Speaker 1>and it's simultaneously trying to build up its gold reserves

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<v Speaker 1>so that it can effectively cut itself off from the

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<v Speaker 1>US dollar system if it needs to or wants to,

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<v Speaker 1>and can provide a sort of alternative payments global payments system.

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<v Speaker 1>I guess for the like say Russia and all the

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<v Speaker 1>other people who don't want to be not.

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<v Speaker 2>How it's further wey than ever was. And that's one

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<v Speaker 2>of the reasons. What's going back to what we're saying

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<v Speaker 2>about gold. The reason why gold's up is because exactly

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<v Speaker 2>that not even Chinese want with it. So no, I don't,

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<v Speaker 2>I think, And that's the problem. You know, as I mentioned,

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<v Speaker 2>it's going to ago. The bricks countries are together as

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<v Speaker 2>we speak and want to basically have at some point,

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<v Speaker 2>you know, an alternative to the US dollar. But it's

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<v Speaker 2>not so much the US dollar, it's the US dollar

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<v Speaker 2>payment system, of which, of fact, the of as far

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<v Speaker 2>off assets control. Basically, the US Treasury can reach out

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<v Speaker 2>across the world and make light very difficult, not just

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<v Speaker 2>by grabbing sovereign reserves like they did for Russia, but

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<v Speaker 2>you know they can block and do all sorts of things,

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<v Speaker 2>rightly or wrongly. But the point here is that the

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<v Speaker 2>alternative to the dollar would have to be the un

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<v Speaker 2>and it isn't ever going to be because of cup

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<v Speaker 2>of controls in the way that the rule of law

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<v Speaker 2>is not applied to be saying in the normal sense

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<v Speaker 2>of the word in China means that any bricks country

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<v Speaker 2>or any bricks alternatives that the units was you know

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<v Speaker 2>they're thinking about, will essentially be the Chinese ran. It's

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<v Speaker 2>not gonna be Russian rouble. And any correlation into India

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<v Speaker 2>repeat that, that's never gonna happen because you know, India

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<v Speaker 2>and China for whatever reason, may I have some or

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<v Speaker 2>a prosh one moment, but they are not friends and

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<v Speaker 2>never will be. And you know, likewise, you know, in

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<v Speaker 2>this context Brazil and South Africa are not are not

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<v Speaker 2>directly relevant. So in that sense, if they want to

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<v Speaker 2>get together, that means they're essentially going to give control

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<v Speaker 2>to Beijing. Is that better than giving control to Washington?

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<v Speaker 2>Obviously not So in that context, I don't think. I

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<v Speaker 2>think it's a non start, and it will continue to be.

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<v Speaker 2>They will obviously be trying to push for into trade

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<v Speaker 2>and denominations, and that's just smart and I perfectly understand that,

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<v Speaker 2>and that's fair enough, but I don't think it's going

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<v Speaker 2>to evolve into anything. What they are most keen on, though,

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<v Speaker 2>is is the payment systems, because you know, separating away

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<v Speaker 2>from using the dollar, you know, it's it's it's the

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<v Speaker 2>how that payment is monitored. And you know, as we

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<v Speaker 2>know swift, the society of worldwide, you know, national financial

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<v Speaker 2>transfers is essentially the payment system of the globe amongst

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<v Speaker 2>the banking systems, and they want to find an alternative

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<v Speaker 2>to that, and that's something which I think they will

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<v Speaker 2>also struggle very hard to do, but I clearly see

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<v Speaker 2>why that's their prime concern. So when you look at

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<v Speaker 2>a bricks currency, it's not really about the currency, it's

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<v Speaker 2>about alternative payment systems which can move money between China

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<v Speaker 2>and any other part of the bricks sort of universe,

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<v Speaker 2>but not getting involved in the essentially a US controlled

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<v Speaker 2>banking payment system.

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<v Speaker 1>And has that been a lot of the interest in

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<v Speaker 1>the CBDC say the things that can digital cut and

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<v Speaker 1>see say the things.

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<v Speaker 2>It's slightly more subtle, But I went to the europe

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<v Speaker 2>Central Bank in June and one of the things that

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<v Speaker 2>really surprised me is the real desire to get a

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<v Speaker 2>digital Europe without really i think, the concept of understanding

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<v Speaker 2>what they're going to create and what monster they are

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<v Speaker 2>going to be left with. Because you know, only seven

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<v Speaker 2>of the area countries have their own individual banking payment systems.

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<v Speaker 1>It's quite extraordinary.

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<v Speaker 2>So you know, we have Chaps or you're going to

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<v Speaker 2>call it in the UK, and it's not applicated across

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<v Speaker 2>the whole wide euro area. So they're ali essentially on Visa,

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<v Speaker 2>master Card and what have you, and they really are

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<v Speaker 2>unhappy about that. So their logic would be credit digital

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<v Speaker 2>euro and a lot of central banks are thinking on

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<v Speaker 2>the line zone in the UK obviously looking at it,

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<v Speaker 2>that's more of a keeping up with the Jones this

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<v Speaker 2>type thing. Yes, sure that they're at least not completely

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<v Speaker 2>left behind, but you know, the concept of allowing the

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<v Speaker 2>government to completely control every payment you make and to

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<v Speaker 2>my mind is horrific. The alternation surely would be to

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<v Speaker 2>create your own privately owned or non government controlled payment system,

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<v Speaker 2>but that doesn't seem to have quite dawned on anyone.

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<v Speaker 1>There, so we could call it bet bet queen.

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<v Speaker 2>You'll never catch on say blockchain a few times, so

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<v Speaker 2>to say blockchain refeatably long of the answer everything.

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<v Speaker 1>You should basically get your by a point of a

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<v Speaker 1>longer chat about that topic, because that's actually really interesting.

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<v Speaker 1>But yes, I think we'll wrap it up there for

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<v Speaker 1>just now. But so thanks very much again. Marcus Marx's

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<v Speaker 1>most recent column ECB should shock and all with half

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<v Speaker 1>point cut spoiler alert, they didn't.

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<v Speaker 2>We are talking about doing it in the someone else

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<v Speaker 2>I think I'm cracking. I'll win on that one.

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<v Speaker 1>And if you want to read more about gold record

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<v Speaker 1>book and run recently got about that and money distilled

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<v Speaker 1>and thanks for listening to this week's Merton Talks Money Debrief.

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<v Speaker 1>If you like the show, rate review, subscribe wherever you

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<v Speaker 1>listen to podcasts, do review, especially if you're gonna leave

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<v Speaker 1>five stars. And also we should follow us on x

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<v Speaker 1>or Twitter as it used to be known. Mern is

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<v Speaker 1>at meren sw Marcus's at Marcus Ashworth, and I'm at

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<v Speaker 1>Join Underscore Stepeck. Who could have believed that somebody else

0:12:49.600 --> 0:12:53.440
<v Speaker 1>would already have taken play old joint Steppeck. This episode

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<v Speaker 1>was produced by Summer Sady, Production support and sound designed

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<v Speaker 1>by Moses and Questions and comments on the show and

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<v Speaker 1>all our shows, They're always welcome or show email is

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<v Speaker 1>Merion Money at Bloomberg dot net