1
00:00:02,560 --> 00:00:07,840
Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News.

2
00:00:09,840 --> 00:00:13,160
Speaker 2: This is your weekly Washington Policy Pulse, the Balance of

3
00:00:13,240 --> 00:00:17,680
Speaker 2: Power podcast. I'm Joe Matthew. Every Monday, Bloomberg Intelligence, Senior

4
00:00:17,720 --> 00:00:20,800
Speaker 2: policy analyst and friend of the show, Nathan Dean shares

5
00:00:20,840 --> 00:00:24,200
Speaker 2: his weekly call on upcoming catalysts in the nation's capital.

6
00:00:24,720 --> 00:00:27,360
Speaker 2: Listen for the most recent and relevant policy research from

7
00:00:27,400 --> 00:00:30,880
Speaker 2: our team at Bloomberg Intelligence. Now with today's installment, here's

8
00:00:30,960 --> 00:00:31,560
Speaker 2: Nathan Dean.

9
00:00:32,000 --> 00:00:35,800
Speaker 1: Good morning and good afternoon everybody. Welcome to the Washington

10
00:00:35,800 --> 00:00:38,480
Speaker 1: Policy Pulse. My name is Nathan Dean. I'm a senior

11
00:00:38,520 --> 00:00:41,120
Speaker 1: policy analyst here in the DC office. For those of

12
00:00:41,159 --> 00:00:43,159
Speaker 1: you who are watching us, so you can see that

13
00:00:43,240 --> 00:00:45,080
Speaker 1: we have a new location. We're coming to a podcast

14
00:00:45,080 --> 00:00:47,760
Speaker 1: booth because as a reminder, we put this out on

15
00:00:47,800 --> 00:00:50,000
Speaker 1: the Balance of Power podcast and we wanted to get

16
00:00:50,000 --> 00:00:52,000
Speaker 1: the audio a little bit better. I think the audio

17
00:00:52,040 --> 00:00:55,040
Speaker 1: folks were like, Nathan, your audio on the desk sounds great,

18
00:00:55,080 --> 00:00:58,080
Speaker 1: but maybe the audio from a podcast booth sounds better.

19
00:00:58,280 --> 00:01:01,120
Speaker 1: So again, welcome to those of you who are listening

20
00:01:01,200 --> 00:01:01,960
Speaker 1: to the Balance.

21
00:01:01,720 --> 00:01:02,640
Speaker 3: Of Power podcast.

22
00:01:02,840 --> 00:01:06,640
Speaker 1: Now we're recording this on November seventeenth at ten oh

23
00:01:06,760 --> 00:01:09,560
Speaker 1: two am The timestamp is important because we've got a

24
00:01:09,640 --> 00:01:11,119
Speaker 1: lot of stuff happening this week.

25
00:01:11,440 --> 00:01:13,000
Speaker 3: Now. We did not have a call last week.

26
00:01:13,040 --> 00:01:14,959
Speaker 1: I was actually out in one of the mountain resorts

27
00:01:15,000 --> 00:01:17,440
Speaker 1: and I stopped at this American store called BUCkies. Now,

28
00:01:17,480 --> 00:01:19,959
Speaker 1: if you don't know what BUCkies is and you're ever

29
00:01:20,000 --> 00:01:21,880
Speaker 1: traveling in the States, or if you know, obviously, if

30
00:01:21,920 --> 00:01:23,640
Speaker 1: you're traveling on a highway and you see the BUCkies,

31
00:01:23,800 --> 00:01:26,080
Speaker 1: you gotta stop. I mean, it's a really cool store.

32
00:01:26,440 --> 00:01:29,119
Speaker 1: But they had a shirt in Bucky saying I celebrate

33
00:01:29,200 --> 00:01:33,400
Speaker 1: hollow thank Mess, meaning Halloween, Thanksgiving, Christmas, and I had

34
00:01:33,400 --> 00:01:35,960
Speaker 1: a picture of a pumpkin, a turkey, and a Santa.

35
00:01:36,440 --> 00:01:38,920
Speaker 1: And I like the term hollow thank Miss because that

36
00:01:39,040 --> 00:01:41,039
Speaker 1: was a good way to describe and I used this

37
00:01:41,080 --> 00:01:43,720
Speaker 1: in my newsletter for Bloomberg News last week. It's a

38
00:01:43,720 --> 00:01:47,120
Speaker 1: good way to describe the season between Halloween and Christmas

39
00:01:47,160 --> 00:01:49,440
Speaker 1: and Halloween in the end of the year, because that

40
00:01:49,880 --> 00:01:53,080
Speaker 1: really does change how Washington thinks. And so what I

41
00:01:53,120 --> 00:01:55,640
Speaker 1: want to do today is I want to run through

42
00:01:55,760 --> 00:01:57,480
Speaker 1: all of the key events that I think are going

43
00:01:57,560 --> 00:02:00,360
Speaker 1: to come up during hollow thank Miss because as of

44
00:02:00,440 --> 00:02:04,080
Speaker 1: right now, we only have fifteen legislative days starting tomorrow

45
00:02:04,560 --> 00:02:06,360
Speaker 1: between now and the end of the year, and so

46
00:02:06,480 --> 00:02:09,160
Speaker 1: it's going to be very much a storming out of

47
00:02:09,200 --> 00:02:11,480
Speaker 1: the gate, get a lot of things done, because, as

48
00:02:11,480 --> 00:02:14,720
Speaker 1: the Washingtonians who are listening to us know, first week

49
00:02:14,760 --> 00:02:18,040
Speaker 1: in December has every single holiday party you can think of.

50
00:02:18,160 --> 00:02:20,560
Speaker 1: Because by the second week of Christmas, or sorry, the

51
00:02:20,600 --> 00:02:26,080
Speaker 1: second week of December, sorry, I just had a question

52
00:02:26,120 --> 00:02:26,360
Speaker 1: come in.

53
00:02:26,440 --> 00:02:26,960
Speaker 3: We'll get to that.

54
00:02:27,240 --> 00:02:30,079
Speaker 1: By the second week in December, most of the politicians

55
00:02:30,080 --> 00:02:32,360
Speaker 1: and most of the polyaymaker policymakers are like, you know what,

56
00:02:32,440 --> 00:02:33,160
Speaker 1: get me out of town.

57
00:02:33,240 --> 00:02:35,680
Speaker 3: I don't want to be here. So let's talk about

58
00:02:35,680 --> 00:02:36,440
Speaker 3: what's going to happen.

59
00:02:36,480 --> 00:02:38,639
Speaker 1: So the first thing to note is the House is

60
00:02:38,639 --> 00:02:41,600
Speaker 1: going to vote on the Jeffrey Epstein files as soon

61
00:02:41,680 --> 00:02:42,559
Speaker 1: as tomorrow.

62
00:02:43,120 --> 00:02:45,680
Speaker 3: This we actually saw a discharge petition.

63
00:02:45,720 --> 00:02:47,800
Speaker 1: Now, what a discharge petition is is it allows the

64
00:02:47,840 --> 00:02:51,520
Speaker 1: minority to essentially overrule the speaker of the House.

65
00:02:52,360 --> 00:02:53,519
Speaker 3: Can happen in either chamber.

66
00:02:53,560 --> 00:02:56,640
Speaker 1: We essentially overrule the majority by saying that we have

67
00:02:56,800 --> 00:02:58,960
Speaker 1: enough votes. As a result, we are going to force

68
00:02:58,960 --> 00:03:01,480
Speaker 1: a vote on this case to release the Epstein files.

69
00:03:01,720 --> 00:03:03,560
Speaker 3: Now, they don't really.

70
00:03:03,440 --> 00:03:05,280
Speaker 1: Talk about the Epstein files all that much because they

71
00:03:05,320 --> 00:03:08,120
Speaker 1: really don't have a investable impact.

72
00:03:08,240 --> 00:03:10,079
Speaker 3: But just note that you know it is going to

73
00:03:10,160 --> 00:03:10,720
Speaker 3: drive a lot of.

74
00:03:10,639 --> 00:03:13,560
Speaker 1: The headlines this week. So again, you know this vote's

75
00:03:13,560 --> 00:03:15,560
Speaker 1: going to take place. It most likely passed the House.

76
00:03:15,600 --> 00:03:19,160
Speaker 1: President Trump actually just returned or had a little bit

77
00:03:19,200 --> 00:03:21,240
Speaker 1: of a u turn in terms of his support, and

78
00:03:21,280 --> 00:03:24,040
Speaker 1: now he's saying that Republicans should vote for this. So

79
00:03:24,080 --> 00:03:26,280
Speaker 1: you're going to see headlines dominate this early part of

80
00:03:26,320 --> 00:03:28,360
Speaker 1: the week. Other things to keep in mind, though these

81
00:03:28,360 --> 00:03:31,040
Speaker 1: are the more investable angles, is that we're anticipating a

82
00:03:31,200 --> 00:03:34,960
Speaker 1: twelve to thirteen billion dollar package for US farmers. Now,

83
00:03:35,000 --> 00:03:37,200
Speaker 1: the way that this work is that very similar to

84
00:03:37,200 --> 00:03:40,080
Speaker 1: twenty eighteen and twenty nineteen during the first Trump administration,

85
00:03:40,600 --> 00:03:44,839
Speaker 1: farmer essentially had another aid package, approximately around twenty three

86
00:03:44,840 --> 00:03:45,600
Speaker 1: billion dollars.

87
00:03:46,160 --> 00:03:47,320
Speaker 3: Now, this would be.

88
00:03:47,240 --> 00:03:50,720
Speaker 1: A first allocation of aid. It would already be allocated

89
00:03:50,720 --> 00:03:53,600
Speaker 1: by the USDA. I mean, you don't need, you don't

90
00:03:53,640 --> 00:03:57,680
Speaker 1: require Congress for this, but the general thought is coming

91
00:03:57,680 --> 00:04:00,000
Speaker 1: from the farming industry. And I spoke to our analyst

92
00:04:00,160 --> 00:04:02,760
Speaker 1: in the region, meaning that the folks who are already

93
00:04:02,840 --> 00:04:05,280
Speaker 1: working out in the heartland right now, and their mantra

94
00:04:05,440 --> 00:04:08,360
Speaker 1: was trade not aid, because as you can imagine that,

95
00:04:08,440 --> 00:04:11,960
Speaker 1: you know, US China imports over soybeans and so forth.

96
00:04:12,000 --> 00:04:14,600
Speaker 1: They've essentially got into a position where US farmers are

97
00:04:14,600 --> 00:04:19,039
Speaker 1: struggling due to high crop, high crop production costs, and

98
00:04:19,080 --> 00:04:22,360
Speaker 1: low crop prices. But as a result, you know, we're

99
00:04:22,360 --> 00:04:24,760
Speaker 1: thinking about twelve to thirteen billion dollars could be announced

100
00:04:24,800 --> 00:04:27,640
Speaker 1: as soon as earlier this week in terms of giving

101
00:04:27,640 --> 00:04:30,400
Speaker 1: aid to farmers. Now, you know, Alexis Maxwell, who's our

102
00:04:30,440 --> 00:04:32,880
Speaker 1: analyst who covers fertilizer, has already put some notes on

103
00:04:32,880 --> 00:04:33,960
Speaker 1: onto the terminal about this.

104
00:04:34,400 --> 00:04:35,120
Speaker 3: But her rule of.

105
00:04:35,040 --> 00:04:37,839
Speaker 1: Thumb is is that, you know, essentially this would be

106
00:04:37,839 --> 00:04:41,680
Speaker 1: a nice short term hit, a short term relief if

107
00:04:41,720 --> 00:04:44,880
Speaker 1: you will, that mostly goes to fourth quarter and first quarters,

108
00:04:45,560 --> 00:04:49,360
Speaker 1: you know, crop price, crop seed seed purchases, not terms

109
00:04:49,400 --> 00:04:51,760
Speaker 1: of equipment or anything like that, and it's really just

110
00:04:51,800 --> 00:04:52,880
Speaker 1: short term aid in nature.

111
00:04:52,920 --> 00:04:55,680
Speaker 3: It's not going to address the long term questions. So again,

112
00:04:55,800 --> 00:04:56,840
Speaker 3: keep your eyes out on that.

113
00:04:57,320 --> 00:05:00,560
Speaker 1: Let's talk about cryptocurrency now that the US government shutdown

114
00:05:00,800 --> 00:05:03,440
Speaker 1: is over, and I'll get to those questions in so

115
00:05:03,480 --> 00:05:07,039
Speaker 1: thank you very much. Now that the shutdown is over

116
00:05:07,160 --> 00:05:09,920
Speaker 1: now for until January thirty first. And let's actually let

117
00:05:09,960 --> 00:05:12,560
Speaker 1: me just talk about the shutdown right now. So the

118
00:05:12,600 --> 00:05:16,400
Speaker 1: shutdown deal last week essentially funded three out of the

119
00:05:16,440 --> 00:05:19,239
Speaker 1: twelve appropriation bills, and these are the bills for Defense

120
00:05:19,320 --> 00:05:25,920
Speaker 1: I'm sorry, USDA, for Congressional Apparatus, and for Veteran Affairs.

121
00:05:25,960 --> 00:05:27,840
Speaker 1: So those are the only three out of the twelve

122
00:05:27,880 --> 00:05:30,800
Speaker 1: that are funded for the entire fiscal year that gets

123
00:05:30,880 --> 00:05:33,600
Speaker 1: us through September thirtieth. Now that means that there are

124
00:05:33,680 --> 00:05:37,520
Speaker 1: nine out of twelve appropriation bills outstanding, and those have

125
00:05:37,560 --> 00:05:40,960
Speaker 1: only been approved up until January thirty first, so things

126
00:05:41,000 --> 00:05:44,200
Speaker 1: like Defense and things like you know, just Treasury and

127
00:05:44,279 --> 00:05:47,320
Speaker 1: State and all these other parts of the US government. Now,

128
00:05:47,360 --> 00:05:49,320
Speaker 1: the question that just came in is what odds would

129
00:05:49,320 --> 00:05:51,600
Speaker 1: you put on a shutdown in February twenty twenty six,

130
00:05:52,040 --> 00:05:54,279
Speaker 1: And right now, I'd say thirty to forty percent. I

131
00:05:54,320 --> 00:05:56,200
Speaker 1: actually don't think a shutdown is going to happen in

132
00:05:56,279 --> 00:06:00,240
Speaker 1: January twenty twenty six with one major caveat. Now, shutdown

133
00:06:00,400 --> 00:06:03,960
Speaker 1: in election years are not good politics. Nobody likes having

134
00:06:03,960 --> 00:06:06,400
Speaker 1: a shutdown in an election year because, as you remember,

135
00:06:06,600 --> 00:06:08,720
Speaker 1: and I've said this before on the call that via

136
00:06:08,760 --> 00:06:13,039
Speaker 1: Brown marrichrip of April twenty twenty six, policymakers across the

137
00:06:13,080 --> 00:06:16,480
Speaker 1: aisles are going to get really uncomfortable being here in Washington,

138
00:06:16,560 --> 00:06:19,640
Speaker 1: because every day you spend here in Washington is another

139
00:06:19,720 --> 00:06:21,919
Speaker 1: day that your opponent and this is all four hundred

140
00:06:21,920 --> 00:06:24,680
Speaker 1: thirty five members of the House of Representatives and one

141
00:06:24,760 --> 00:06:27,560
Speaker 1: third of the Senate, their opponent is back in their

142
00:06:27,560 --> 00:06:31,560
Speaker 1: home district campaigning against them. So Washingtonian policymakers don't like

143
00:06:31,600 --> 00:06:34,240
Speaker 1: being here in Washington, and as a result, very few

144
00:06:34,240 --> 00:06:37,880
Speaker 1: things get done in the six months leading up until

145
00:06:37,880 --> 00:06:40,880
Speaker 1: the election. Now, going back to the question of what

146
00:06:40,920 --> 00:06:43,280
Speaker 1: odds would you put on a shutdown, thirty to forty percent.

147
00:06:43,680 --> 00:06:46,559
Speaker 1: The major caveat, though, is is if the White House

148
00:06:47,080 --> 00:06:52,799
Speaker 1: pursues another Recisians bill. If remember Recisians bills allow without

149
00:06:52,880 --> 00:06:54,800
Speaker 1: a filibuster, so a majority vote in the House and

150
00:06:54,839 --> 00:06:58,039
Speaker 1: a majority vote in the Senate to clawback deals and

151
00:06:58,160 --> 00:07:01,440
Speaker 1: clawback money and rescind money that has already been appropriated.

152
00:07:01,680 --> 00:07:04,200
Speaker 1: And this is the problem with the recisions packages, because

153
00:07:04,240 --> 00:07:07,680
Speaker 1: it takes sixty votes to get an appropriations bill, fifty

154
00:07:07,760 --> 00:07:10,560
Speaker 1: votes to re send that money, and that equation just

155
00:07:10,640 --> 00:07:14,200
Speaker 1: does not work. And so from the democratic perspective, look,

156
00:07:14,280 --> 00:07:17,360
Speaker 1: if we had a deal to keep the government open

157
00:07:17,960 --> 00:07:20,760
Speaker 1: and you essentially just said, nah, we're just going to

158
00:07:20,800 --> 00:07:23,520
Speaker 1: avoid that, you know that equation just does not work,

159
00:07:23,680 --> 00:07:26,520
Speaker 1: we could see another shutdown. So it really depends on

160
00:07:26,520 --> 00:07:28,239
Speaker 1: what language we're going to see from the White House.

161
00:07:28,680 --> 00:07:30,160
Speaker 1: And I don't think it's going to be anytime soon.

162
00:07:30,200 --> 00:07:32,520
Speaker 1: I think it's going to be more like January where

163
00:07:32,520 --> 00:07:34,640
Speaker 1: we're going to get into this. But if the Senate

164
00:07:34,800 --> 00:07:37,240
Speaker 1: and the House can actually make some decent work on

165
00:07:37,280 --> 00:07:40,480
Speaker 1: these appropriation bills, then I think it's going to be

166
00:07:40,520 --> 00:07:43,880
Speaker 1: more likely than not these things go forward. Senator Thune

167
00:07:43,960 --> 00:07:47,120
Speaker 1: is actually going to try and package together, potentially as

168
00:07:47,160 --> 00:07:49,360
Speaker 1: soon as next week, a vote on some of the

169
00:07:49,440 --> 00:07:52,840
Speaker 1: language on this. So again, you know, we'll see what happens.

170
00:07:52,840 --> 00:07:54,880
Speaker 1: But right now, i'd say it's about thirty to forty percent.

171
00:07:55,840 --> 00:07:58,720
Speaker 1: So going back to crypto, one of the things that

172
00:07:58,760 --> 00:08:01,560
Speaker 1: it's interesting is on the crypto currency space is that

173
00:08:03,120 --> 00:08:05,400
Speaker 1: you know, both the Senate and AG committees have come

174
00:08:05,440 --> 00:08:08,400
Speaker 1: out of the gate storming post shutdown. Now, if you

175
00:08:08,440 --> 00:08:11,520
Speaker 1: remember the House Passage Clarity Act earlier this year, the

176
00:08:11,520 --> 00:08:14,600
Speaker 1: Senate Banking Committee had there what's known as a discussion

177
00:08:14,680 --> 00:08:19,080
Speaker 1: draft that focused on the banking side of cryptos, so

178
00:08:19,160 --> 00:08:22,240
Speaker 1: the SEC so they don't have authority over commodities, that

179
00:08:22,360 --> 00:08:25,400
Speaker 1: is the AG side. Now, the Senate Ag Committee released

180
00:08:25,440 --> 00:08:28,920
Speaker 1: their discussion draft late last week. I'm sorry, late the

181
00:08:28,960 --> 00:08:33,040
Speaker 1: week before. I'm actually gonna have my thoughts out this week.

182
00:08:33,520 --> 00:08:35,640
Speaker 1: So if you're in the crypto space, text me ping

183
00:08:35,679 --> 00:08:38,720
Speaker 1: me around Thursday Friday, that's when my piece is going

184
00:08:38,720 --> 00:08:40,959
Speaker 1: to be on on the terminal. But the status of

185
00:08:41,000 --> 00:08:42,800
Speaker 1: where we're at right now is that the Senate Banking

186
00:08:42,800 --> 00:08:45,640
Speaker 1: Committee has their draft, the Senate ad Committee has their draft,

187
00:08:46,000 --> 00:08:47,960
Speaker 1: and they wont all this done by the end of

188
00:08:47,960 --> 00:08:50,640
Speaker 1: the year. And my message to clients is is that

189
00:08:50,760 --> 00:08:53,080
Speaker 1: I don't think it's going to happen because, like I said,

190
00:08:53,280 --> 00:08:55,920
Speaker 1: there's only fifteen legislative days between now and the end

191
00:08:55,920 --> 00:08:58,840
Speaker 1: of the year, and by the second week of December,

192
00:08:58,960 --> 00:09:01,840
Speaker 1: Senate politicians do not want to be here. They want

193
00:09:01,840 --> 00:09:04,480
Speaker 1: to go home, so and there's nothing saying you have

194
00:09:04,559 --> 00:09:07,240
Speaker 1: to have it done early this year. More likely not,

195
00:09:07,320 --> 00:09:09,240
Speaker 1: this gets kicked the can to the first half of

196
00:09:09,280 --> 00:09:11,440
Speaker 1: next year, where I do think that this bill is

197
00:09:11,440 --> 00:09:13,280
Speaker 1: going to pass. I'm at a seventy percent chance, and

198
00:09:13,280 --> 00:09:15,400
Speaker 1: I feel, you know, that's pretty high for me. So

199
00:09:15,640 --> 00:09:17,480
Speaker 1: I'm thinking that, you know, we have decent chance of

200
00:09:17,520 --> 00:09:21,439
Speaker 1: bill passage, probably a little bit more nuances. But Senator

201
00:09:21,480 --> 00:09:24,320
Speaker 1: Booker from New Jersey, a Democrat, has already signed on

202
00:09:24,400 --> 00:09:26,880
Speaker 1: to this discussion draft. So there are already Democrats on

203
00:09:26,960 --> 00:09:30,319
Speaker 1: board with this idea of passing a crypto bill. And

204
00:09:30,480 --> 00:09:32,560
Speaker 1: just let's come out and say it. The amount of

205
00:09:32,640 --> 00:09:37,040
Speaker 1: crypto lobbying dollars that's being thrown at Washington at the

206
00:09:37,040 --> 00:09:41,120
Speaker 1: moment is almost unheard of, and as a result, it's

207
00:09:41,160 --> 00:09:43,640
Speaker 1: going to be very difficult for politicians to say I

208
00:09:43,679 --> 00:09:46,440
Speaker 1: don't want any part of this. So again, we'll see

209
00:09:46,440 --> 00:09:48,400
Speaker 1: and I'll have a little bit more update later this week.

210
00:09:48,640 --> 00:09:51,439
Speaker 1: And just for those of you who are tracking stable coins,

211
00:09:51,520 --> 00:09:54,800
Speaker 1: as remember the crypto industry right now, there is a

212
00:09:55,360 --> 00:09:59,800
Speaker 1: under the Genius Act, stable coin issuers cannot issue yield

213
00:09:59,840 --> 00:10:04,680
Speaker 1: and cannot pay for deposits on stable coins. But there's

214
00:10:04,720 --> 00:10:07,640
Speaker 1: nothing out there that doesn't prevent crypto platforms like coinbase

215
00:10:07,720 --> 00:10:11,120
Speaker 1: from offering rewards, and so the banking industry wants that

216
00:10:11,200 --> 00:10:14,800
Speaker 1: loophole closed as part of this bill, crypto industry is

217
00:10:14,800 --> 00:10:17,560
Speaker 1: obviously finding it. So you have the crypto versus banking industry,

218
00:10:17,920 --> 00:10:20,000
Speaker 1: and as a result, I think what happens is the

219
00:10:20,040 --> 00:10:23,160
Speaker 1: status quo wins, and I think, you know, the cryptocurrency

220
00:10:23,280 --> 00:10:25,840
Speaker 1: was able to continue to pay those rewards through their

221
00:10:25,880 --> 00:10:30,160
Speaker 1: crypto platform partners. So that's where we are are in cryptocurrency.

222
00:10:30,240 --> 00:10:33,000
Speaker 1: Let's talk about National Defense Authorization Act. So as part

223
00:10:33,040 --> 00:10:35,400
Speaker 1: of that appropriations Act, for those of you who are

224
00:10:35,400 --> 00:10:37,880
Speaker 1: in the defense space, you're probably gonna have a very

225
00:10:37,880 --> 00:10:41,720
Speaker 1: busy next week or so because Senator Thune has said

226
00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:44,520
Speaker 1: that they are very close to having a general agreement

227
00:10:44,840 --> 00:10:47,320
Speaker 1: on the National Defense Authorization Actor. If you remember, the

228
00:10:47,360 --> 00:10:50,480
Speaker 1: House passed this version earlier this year. Senate passed their

229
00:10:50,600 --> 00:10:53,080
Speaker 1: version just a couple of weeks ago. And this is

230
00:10:53,200 --> 00:10:56,320
Speaker 1: where right now they're talking about top light and spending dollars,

231
00:10:56,720 --> 00:10:58,719
Speaker 1: because the White House is asking for eight hundred and

232
00:10:58,760 --> 00:11:01,360
Speaker 1: ninety three billion dollars in defense spending for next year

233
00:11:01,559 --> 00:11:04,760
Speaker 1: for this year, and the Senate plan is coming up

234
00:11:04,760 --> 00:11:06,680
Speaker 1: with nine hundred and twenty five billion. Now that's thirty

235
00:11:06,679 --> 00:11:09,840
Speaker 1: two billion dollars in difference. But remember the White House

236
00:11:09,880 --> 00:11:12,000
Speaker 1: already allocated one hundred and fifty billion dollars from the

237
00:11:12,040 --> 00:11:13,080
Speaker 1: one big beautiful bill.

238
00:11:13,320 --> 00:11:14,080
Speaker 3: So the White House is.

239
00:11:14,080 --> 00:11:16,480
Speaker 1: Actually saying eight ninety three plus one fifty, we're actually

240
00:11:16,480 --> 00:11:18,120
Speaker 1: coming in a little bit higher than the Senate plan.

241
00:11:18,640 --> 00:11:21,320
Speaker 1: Where I'm going with this is that the National Defense

242
00:11:21,320 --> 00:11:23,920
Speaker 1: Authorization Act is important for us for two reasons. One,

243
00:11:23,960 --> 00:11:27,520
Speaker 1: it's usually a bipartisan and so you generally see this

244
00:11:27,600 --> 00:11:30,280
Speaker 1: move a little bit quicker than others. I anticipate that

245
00:11:30,280 --> 00:11:32,400
Speaker 1: that's going to continue to happen now that the shutdown

246
00:11:32,520 --> 00:11:35,680
Speaker 1: is over. And Two, the National Defense Authorization Act is

247
00:11:35,679 --> 00:11:38,960
Speaker 1: one of those bills that people love to attach bills

248
00:11:38,960 --> 00:11:41,560
Speaker 1: too to try and get it to the President's desk.

249
00:11:41,960 --> 00:11:43,800
Speaker 3: It's what is known as a Christmas tree bill.

250
00:11:43,800 --> 00:11:46,040
Speaker 1: We've talked about this in the past before, where you

251
00:11:46,120 --> 00:11:49,160
Speaker 1: hang an ornament on a Christmas tree. What happens is

252
00:11:49,160 --> 00:11:51,880
Speaker 1: is that they like to hang legislation on the National

253
00:11:51,920 --> 00:11:54,520
Speaker 1: Defense Authorization Act as a way to try and get

254
00:11:54,520 --> 00:11:57,240
Speaker 1: it to the President's desk. So things like the Credit

255
00:11:57,240 --> 00:12:01,000
Speaker 1: Card Competition Act that's been tried, actually just tried earlier

256
00:12:01,040 --> 00:12:03,880
Speaker 1: this year. Senator Thun said, no, you can't do it.

257
00:12:04,160 --> 00:12:06,680
Speaker 1: But if you're looking at Senator Marshall and Senator Durbin.

258
00:12:06,960 --> 00:12:09,120
Speaker 1: I have to imagine they may try again. So again

259
00:12:09,200 --> 00:12:12,640
Speaker 1: keep that one with the NDAA. Look for this Christmas

260
00:12:12,640 --> 00:12:15,280
Speaker 1: tree bill opportunity. I'm going to be watching for it.

261
00:12:15,320 --> 00:12:17,200
Speaker 1: And obviously if you know, if you want to know,

262
00:12:17,280 --> 00:12:18,320
Speaker 1: just ping me and I'll let you know.

263
00:12:19,679 --> 00:12:21,160
Speaker 3: Let's talk about marijuana for a second.

264
00:12:21,160 --> 00:12:23,079
Speaker 1: I just put out a note this morning on marijuana

265
00:12:23,520 --> 00:12:26,400
Speaker 1: because as part of the shutdown deal, there was actually

266
00:12:26,400 --> 00:12:29,600
Speaker 1: a marijuana provision that actually was someone interesting. So the

267
00:12:29,640 --> 00:12:32,000
Speaker 1: Senate voted I want to say it was like seventy

268
00:12:32,040 --> 00:12:33,160
Speaker 1: six to twenty four.

269
00:12:33,360 --> 00:12:34,760
Speaker 3: I can't remember off the top of my head, but

270
00:12:35,000 --> 00:12:35,640
Speaker 3: it was seventy six.

271
00:12:35,800 --> 00:12:38,520
Speaker 1: I think it's seventy six to twenty four to essentially

272
00:12:38,559 --> 00:12:40,960
Speaker 1: ban what is known as the hemp loophole. So back

273
00:12:40,960 --> 00:12:44,440
Speaker 1: in the twenty eighteen Farm Bill, there was they called

274
00:12:44,440 --> 00:12:45,920
Speaker 1: a loophole. I don't want to call it a loophole,

275
00:12:45,920 --> 00:12:48,520
Speaker 1: but it's generally known as the farm bill loophole that

276
00:12:48,640 --> 00:12:52,319
Speaker 1: allowed hemp derived products to be sold. So these are

277
00:12:52,360 --> 00:12:54,840
Speaker 1: things like you know, over the counter, you know, essentially

278
00:12:54,960 --> 00:12:58,640
Speaker 1: very important to states like Kentucky and other you know, hemp,

279
00:12:59,080 --> 00:13:04,079
Speaker 1: hemp States, and Senator McConnell led an effort to essentially

280
00:13:04,120 --> 00:13:08,360
Speaker 1: ban this, and it succeeded. So this band's going into

281
00:13:08,400 --> 00:13:10,480
Speaker 1: effect in a year, and there's going to be a

282
00:13:10,520 --> 00:13:13,800
Speaker 1: lot of hemp deprived products, and some people estimate as

283
00:13:13,840 --> 00:13:16,960
Speaker 1: much as twenty eight billion dollars per year industry that

284
00:13:17,080 --> 00:13:18,760
Speaker 1: is going to be harmed by this by saying you

285
00:13:18,800 --> 00:13:21,280
Speaker 1: can't sell this. The reason why it's important for us

286
00:13:21,440 --> 00:13:24,400
Speaker 1: is that I think it's very indicative of the marijuana

287
00:13:24,880 --> 00:13:28,920
Speaker 1: arguments or the marijuana debate over things like rescheduling and

288
00:13:29,120 --> 00:13:32,840
Speaker 1: even legalization. Because if you have seventy six senators that

289
00:13:33,000 --> 00:13:36,600
Speaker 1: is not just like above sixty barely, that's seventy six

290
00:13:36,679 --> 00:13:39,800
Speaker 1: senators that voted to ban these products, that seventy six

291
00:13:39,880 --> 00:13:42,680
Speaker 1: senators most likely are not on board with this idea

292
00:13:42,840 --> 00:13:46,040
Speaker 1: of loosened up marijuana regulation. And so the note that

293
00:13:46,080 --> 00:13:48,160
Speaker 1: I put out on the terminal this morning essentially said

294
00:13:48,320 --> 00:13:50,680
Speaker 1: look for two things. One for full legalization and things

295
00:13:50,720 --> 00:13:52,880
Speaker 1: like the Safer Banking Act. It's not going to happen

296
00:13:52,880 --> 00:13:55,000
Speaker 1: in this congressional term. I don't think it's going to

297
00:13:55,040 --> 00:13:57,880
Speaker 1: happen in the second congressional term, meaning through twenty twenty eight.

298
00:13:58,200 --> 00:14:00,520
Speaker 1: But when it comes to rescheduling, I think it's a

299
00:14:00,559 --> 00:14:04,120
Speaker 1: political decision for President Trump. So I'm just saying, is

300
00:14:04,200 --> 00:14:06,400
Speaker 1: that the last thing that happened is President Trump put

301
00:14:06,400 --> 00:14:08,640
Speaker 1: out a video a couple of weeks ago essentially saying

302
00:14:09,040 --> 00:14:13,079
Speaker 1: that there could be some benefits to this idea of marijuana.

303
00:14:13,960 --> 00:14:15,640
Speaker 1: But I also don't think it's going to lead to

304
00:14:15,640 --> 00:14:18,880
Speaker 1: reschedulization anytime soon. I think if there is an announcement that

305
00:14:18,880 --> 00:14:20,640
Speaker 1: comes from the White House, it's going to be a

306
00:14:20,680 --> 00:14:24,040
Speaker 1: political decision to say we want this announcement to help

307
00:14:24,120 --> 00:14:27,880
Speaker 1: us politically, maybe in advance of the midterms. But then again,

308
00:14:27,920 --> 00:14:31,040
Speaker 1: the reschedulization argument is going to take a long time

309
00:14:31,120 --> 00:14:34,080
Speaker 1: to play out. There's over fifteen thousand comment letters. The

310
00:14:34,160 --> 00:14:36,680
Speaker 1: FDA and the DEA have to essentially look at it here,

311
00:14:37,000 --> 00:14:39,320
Speaker 1: and the DEA administrator by a gentleman by the name

312
00:14:39,360 --> 00:14:43,080
Speaker 1: of Terrence Cole. He spent thirty years combating marijuana. And

313
00:14:43,320 --> 00:14:45,520
Speaker 1: unless the President comes out here and says you must

314
00:14:45,520 --> 00:14:47,480
Speaker 1: do this, I don't think Terrence Cole is going to

315
00:14:47,520 --> 00:14:50,320
Speaker 1: come back and say I want to do rescheduling anytime soon.

316
00:14:51,640 --> 00:14:54,640
Speaker 1: So talking a little bit about bank regulation this week, interesting.

317
00:14:54,640 --> 00:14:56,400
Speaker 1: Two things that I wanted to talk about. One is

318
00:14:56,400 --> 00:15:01,040
Speaker 1: I put in our article last week analysis talking about

319
00:15:01,040 --> 00:15:03,440
Speaker 1: regional bank relief, because if you've been a member of

320
00:15:03,480 --> 00:15:05,640
Speaker 1: this call, you know that we've talked a lot about

321
00:15:05,640 --> 00:15:09,000
Speaker 1: investment banking rules, bank capital rules, and so forth. But

322
00:15:09,080 --> 00:15:10,320
Speaker 1: a lot of the questions we get is where are

323
00:15:10,320 --> 00:15:12,960
Speaker 1: the regional banks? Where's P and C capital and trust?

324
00:15:13,040 --> 00:15:15,720
Speaker 1: You know, you know, where are these banks in terms

325
00:15:15,720 --> 00:15:18,120
Speaker 1: of regulatory relief? And what my note essentially said is

326
00:15:18,480 --> 00:15:22,400
Speaker 1: investment bank big bank relief first, regional banks second. And

327
00:15:22,440 --> 00:15:25,640
Speaker 1: this came to this idea of thresholds. So if you're

328
00:15:25,680 --> 00:15:27,560
Speaker 1: a regional bank in the United States, and let's just

329
00:15:27,600 --> 00:15:30,160
Speaker 1: say that you're around seven hundred billion in assets or

330
00:15:30,200 --> 00:15:34,040
Speaker 1: six hundred billion in assets, you are what's considered category two.

331
00:15:34,080 --> 00:15:37,320
Speaker 1: There's category one, category three, two, category three, and I apologize,

332
00:15:37,360 --> 00:15:39,480
Speaker 1: actually it's category three is the one I was referring

333
00:15:39,480 --> 00:15:42,200
Speaker 1: to for P and C and so forth. Category four.

334
00:15:43,200 --> 00:15:46,440
Speaker 1: These thresholds are not set by law. They are set

335
00:15:46,480 --> 00:15:48,800
Speaker 1: by regulation, with one exception, that is two hundred and

336
00:15:48,800 --> 00:15:51,080
Speaker 1: fifty billion dollars that is what deems you to be

337
00:15:51,160 --> 00:15:55,480
Speaker 1: domestically systemically important. And so the banking industry for many

338
00:15:55,560 --> 00:15:58,480
Speaker 1: years is said, look, you know, because these thresholds aren't

339
00:15:58,480 --> 00:16:00,480
Speaker 1: set by law. Outside of that two hundred fifty billion

340
00:16:00,520 --> 00:16:03,400
Speaker 1: dollar threshold, maybe you should index it to something like

341
00:16:03,440 --> 00:16:06,360
Speaker 1: inflation or this is what the banking industry is calling

342
00:16:06,400 --> 00:16:09,720
Speaker 1: for nominal GDP. So rather than saying if you're at

343
00:16:09,720 --> 00:16:12,160
Speaker 1: seven hundred billion dollars, if you have to index it

344
00:16:12,200 --> 00:16:15,160
Speaker 1: the nominal GDP, you're more looking at something like nine.

345
00:16:15,080 --> 00:16:15,920
Speaker 3: Hundred billion dollars.

346
00:16:15,960 --> 00:16:18,960
Speaker 1: And this is important because if you move these thresholds up,

347
00:16:19,280 --> 00:16:21,320
Speaker 1: it allows a bank like P and C or Capital

348
00:16:21,400 --> 00:16:24,360
Speaker 1: One to be able to say, huh, maybe we actually

349
00:16:24,400 --> 00:16:26,680
Speaker 1: can grow our base by another one hundred and fifty

350
00:16:26,720 --> 00:16:28,880
Speaker 1: to two hundred billion in assets and we won't actually

351
00:16:29,000 --> 00:16:33,080
Speaker 1: hit this threshold for enhance regulation. So again keep that

352
00:16:33,160 --> 00:16:35,280
Speaker 1: in mind. I do think that this is coming, and

353
00:16:35,360 --> 00:16:37,080
Speaker 1: this note and I can send it to you if

354
00:16:37,120 --> 00:16:39,440
Speaker 1: you'd like. It's very thematic at this point. There's no

355
00:16:39,520 --> 00:16:41,720
Speaker 1: indication that they've said that they're going to do this

356
00:16:41,760 --> 00:16:43,920
Speaker 1: other than just general yeah, we think it's a great idea.

357
00:16:44,440 --> 00:16:47,120
Speaker 1: I think once all the big bank pack capital rules

358
00:16:47,160 --> 00:16:50,520
Speaker 1: are done, so maybe by the talent of next year,

359
00:16:50,720 --> 00:16:53,360
Speaker 1: that's when these proposals come out. So the last thing

360
00:16:53,400 --> 00:16:55,120
Speaker 1: I want to talk about in terms of bank regulation

361
00:16:55,360 --> 00:16:57,880
Speaker 1: is if you missed it, Katanga Johnson. And this is

362
00:16:57,880 --> 00:17:01,440
Speaker 1: why I was actually on a Mountain report essentially saying

363
00:17:01,600 --> 00:17:04,560
Speaker 1: that the leverage ratio proposal has moved its way from

364
00:17:04,560 --> 00:17:08,280
Speaker 1: the Federal Reserve to the Office of Management and Budget

365
00:17:08,280 --> 00:17:11,840
Speaker 1: the OMB. This is the Enhanced Supplementally Leverage Ratio also

366
00:17:11,880 --> 00:17:14,080
Speaker 1: known as the ESLR. So one of the things that

367
00:17:14,119 --> 00:17:17,240
Speaker 1: the Trump administration did is they changed the process of

368
00:17:17,280 --> 00:17:18,960
Speaker 1: how you finalize the rule. And this is not just

369
00:17:19,000 --> 00:17:24,080
Speaker 1: a financial regulator, this is everybody in the within the

370
00:17:24,080 --> 00:17:24,720
Speaker 1: White House.

371
00:17:24,520 --> 00:17:25,879
Speaker 3: And the administrative agencies.

372
00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:29,840
Speaker 1: Is before the Federal Reserve had said okay, let's talk

373
00:17:29,840 --> 00:17:32,960
Speaker 1: to the FDIC, let's talk to the OECC. Let's final well,

374
00:17:33,000 --> 00:17:35,760
Speaker 1: and let's put it out there. Now every proposal has

375
00:17:35,800 --> 00:17:38,480
Speaker 1: to go to OMB for the White House review. Now,

376
00:17:38,520 --> 00:17:40,600
Speaker 1: I think this just slows things down a little bit.

377
00:17:40,960 --> 00:17:42,280
Speaker 1: It's not that big of a deal. I mean, don't

378
00:17:42,280 --> 00:17:43,840
Speaker 1: get me wrong. I don't think the OMB is going

379
00:17:43,880 --> 00:17:45,520
Speaker 1: to really come back and say to the FED, we

380
00:17:45,560 --> 00:17:49,800
Speaker 1: don't like this, with certain exceptions, But because the FDI,

381
00:17:50,000 --> 00:17:52,880
Speaker 1: the FED has submitted it or, reportedly according to Katanga,

382
00:17:52,960 --> 00:17:55,560
Speaker 1: to the O and B, we're looking at finalization most

383
00:17:55,600 --> 00:17:58,040
Speaker 1: likely in December. The banking industry has said that they

384
00:17:58,040 --> 00:17:59,640
Speaker 1: want the ESLR done by January.

385
00:17:59,640 --> 00:18:00,880
Speaker 3: First. I was a skeptic.

386
00:18:00,960 --> 00:18:02,960
Speaker 1: You know, if you talk to me about this before,

387
00:18:03,000 --> 00:18:05,920
Speaker 1: I've always said, yeah, I mean, look, there's a couple

388
00:18:05,960 --> 00:18:08,040
Speaker 1: of people working on this. They may struggle, they may

389
00:18:08,119 --> 00:18:10,359
Speaker 1: it may have to be January February. But look, if

390
00:18:10,359 --> 00:18:12,919
Speaker 1: it's already at OMB, it means that they have a

391
00:18:13,000 --> 00:18:16,480
Speaker 1: rule that they've essentially sent said bless this so we

392
00:18:16,480 --> 00:18:18,800
Speaker 1: can put it out. So assuming that the FDIC and

393
00:18:18,840 --> 00:18:21,479
Speaker 1: the OECC don't have any issues with this, I think

394
00:18:21,520 --> 00:18:23,680
Speaker 1: you're going to see a leverage ratio rule before the

395
00:18:23,760 --> 00:18:25,639
Speaker 1: end of the year. A couple of other things to

396
00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:30,320
Speaker 1: keep in mind real quickly. Tomorrow, the Crown Prince of

397
00:18:30,320 --> 00:18:33,159
Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia is meeting with the President Trump over at

398
00:18:33,160 --> 00:18:36,320
Speaker 1: the White House. You know, there's a lot geopolitical news

399
00:18:36,320 --> 00:18:37,199
Speaker 1: that's going to come from this.

400
00:18:37,640 --> 00:18:39,280
Speaker 3: Obviously, keeping in the mind.

401
00:18:39,040 --> 00:18:40,800
Speaker 1: The one thing I'm going to be looking for is,

402
00:18:41,000 --> 00:18:44,360
Speaker 1: let's talk about Saudi investments in the United States. Let's

403
00:18:44,359 --> 00:18:46,560
Speaker 1: talk about purchases of f thirty five, So let's talk

404
00:18:46,560 --> 00:18:49,000
Speaker 1: about aideals. I'm going to be looking at the technology

405
00:18:49,000 --> 00:18:52,240
Speaker 1: sector in particular because if we see any deals coming

406
00:18:52,280 --> 00:18:54,200
Speaker 1: out from the Saudi arabiasa that they're going to invest

407
00:18:54,240 --> 00:18:57,280
Speaker 1: five hundred billion dollars, et cetera, that could make things

408
00:18:57,320 --> 00:18:59,600
Speaker 1: a little bit exciting from the headline perspective. So keep

409
00:18:59,600 --> 00:19:02,000
Speaker 1: in mind, this meeting is going to be around lunchtime

410
00:19:02,160 --> 00:19:05,359
Speaker 1: on the East coast, so probably around eleven thirty twelve o'clock.

411
00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:07,960
Speaker 1: That puts you in London around five o'clock. If you

412
00:19:08,000 --> 00:19:10,879
Speaker 1: put on the continent, you're around six pm. So again

413
00:19:11,240 --> 00:19:13,280
Speaker 1: that's when you're going to probably see the headlines about

414
00:19:13,280 --> 00:19:17,560
Speaker 1: an hour after that. Other things geopolitical wise, you know,

415
00:19:17,920 --> 00:19:21,160
Speaker 1: those of you who exposure to energy or interested in Venezuela.

416
00:19:21,760 --> 00:19:25,159
Speaker 1: Just last night, Senator State Secretary of State Mark Rubio

417
00:19:25,480 --> 00:19:28,720
Speaker 1: said that there's a new terrorism designation. As you remember,

418
00:19:28,760 --> 00:19:30,880
Speaker 1: the Gerald Ford, the uss S Gerald Ford at an

419
00:19:30,880 --> 00:19:34,920
Speaker 1: aircraft carrier, has gone from the Mediterranean to the Caribbean.

420
00:19:35,000 --> 00:19:38,320
Speaker 1: It just entered entered the Caribbean waters this past weekend.

421
00:19:38,840 --> 00:19:42,920
Speaker 1: Stay close to our defense analysts Wayne Sanders for Bloomberg Intelligence.

422
00:19:42,960 --> 00:19:46,320
Speaker 1: Becka Wasser from Bloomberg Economics. So if we get into

423
00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:49,000
Speaker 1: a situation where the United States does decide to attack

424
00:19:49,080 --> 00:19:52,440
Speaker 1: Venezuela through strikes or whatever, both Wayne and Becca would

425
00:19:52,440 --> 00:19:53,960
Speaker 1: be the individuals that you want to talk to you,

426
00:19:54,000 --> 00:19:55,679
Speaker 1: So again, pin me and I will make sure that

427
00:19:55,760 --> 00:19:58,919
Speaker 1: you get in touch with them. Finally, as part of

428
00:19:58,920 --> 00:20:02,680
Speaker 1: this hollow thank miss period, just to remember, I EAPA

429
00:20:02,720 --> 00:20:05,680
Speaker 1: tariffs is still up there with Supreme Court. You know,

430
00:20:05,760 --> 00:20:07,600
Speaker 1: one of the things that my colleague calif from has

431
00:20:07,600 --> 00:20:10,119
Speaker 1: been looking at is this idea of refund chaos.

432
00:20:10,400 --> 00:20:12,000
Speaker 3: What happens if the United States.

433
00:20:11,800 --> 00:20:14,160
Speaker 1: Has to actually refund about one hundred billion dollars worth

434
00:20:14,160 --> 00:20:16,760
Speaker 1: of money. She's put a note out on the terminal.

435
00:20:18,880 --> 00:20:21,800
Speaker 1: So talking about this, so again, as we get closer

436
00:20:21,840 --> 00:20:23,760
Speaker 1: to that, and you want to know what happens now

437
00:20:23,920 --> 00:20:27,760
Speaker 1: after the you know, Supreme Court case, We're gonna have

438
00:20:27,760 --> 00:20:28,480
Speaker 1: a lot of stuff here.

439
00:20:28,520 --> 00:20:30,159
Speaker 3: But again I'm just giving your heads up on that.

440
00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:32,600
Speaker 1: And then finally before we get to the last question

441
00:20:33,280 --> 00:20:35,399
Speaker 1: that's in the chat, for those of you who are

442
00:20:35,400 --> 00:20:37,880
Speaker 1: in the housing policy space, you've read a lot about

443
00:20:37,920 --> 00:20:41,400
Speaker 1: fifty year mortgages my college drew reading and Erica Adelberg

444
00:20:41,440 --> 00:20:43,520
Speaker 1: has a piece about talking about why these fifty year

445
00:20:43,560 --> 00:20:45,880
Speaker 1: mortgages most likely won't be taken up by the industry.

446
00:20:46,440 --> 00:20:50,280
Speaker 1: Just last week we saw Bill Polti, the FHFA director,

447
00:20:50,320 --> 00:20:55,199
Speaker 1: talked about portable mortgages. But as a reminder, Bill Ackman

448
00:20:55,280 --> 00:20:57,600
Speaker 1: has a Twitter spaces tomorrow that he's going to be

449
00:20:57,600 --> 00:20:59,560
Speaker 1: talking about and he's most likely going to be talking

450
00:20:59,600 --> 00:21:02,479
Speaker 1: about cap and release in terms of taking Fanny May

451
00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:05,320
Speaker 1: and Freddie mack public. So you may see some headlines

452
00:21:05,359 --> 00:21:08,800
Speaker 1: there if you do have questions on housing policy. My

453
00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:11,159
Speaker 1: colleague Ben Elliott is the individual that you want to

454
00:21:11,160 --> 00:21:13,240
Speaker 1: talk to, So just as a heads up, you may

455
00:21:13,240 --> 00:21:16,840
Speaker 1: see some Fanny fredline Fanny Freddie headlines tomorrow. So last

456
00:21:16,920 --> 00:21:18,719
Speaker 1: question that I got in here from one of our

457
00:21:18,720 --> 00:21:21,440
Speaker 1: clients was when can we expect President Trump? Oh, I

458
00:21:22,200 --> 00:21:24,440
Speaker 1: see the other question, yep, I got that when can

459
00:21:24,480 --> 00:21:26,600
Speaker 1: we expect President Trump to make a FED share pick?

460
00:21:26,640 --> 00:21:28,719
Speaker 3: And how easy will it be to get through the Senate.

461
00:21:29,119 --> 00:21:31,960
Speaker 1: So you know, the anticipation has always been that we

462
00:21:31,960 --> 00:21:34,040
Speaker 1: would see this before the end of the year. The

463
00:21:34,119 --> 00:21:36,840
Speaker 1: last official word we had from Treasury Secretary Scott Besson

464
00:21:36,960 --> 00:21:39,200
Speaker 1: is that he would make his recommendations to the President

465
00:21:39,200 --> 00:21:41,600
Speaker 1: by Thanksgiving, which for those of you who are not

466
00:21:41,640 --> 00:21:44,400
Speaker 1: in the United States is a week from Thursday. We're

467
00:21:44,440 --> 00:21:45,960
Speaker 1: still going to have a call next week. I'll be

468
00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:48,760
Speaker 1: working most in fact all I think most of the

469
00:21:48,920 --> 00:21:51,920
Speaker 1: Thanksgiving week. But for those of you not outside of

470
00:21:51,920 --> 00:21:54,439
Speaker 1: the United States, Thanksgiving is a week from Thursday, So

471
00:21:55,359 --> 00:21:57,879
Speaker 1: that's when Scott Besson has said that he would make

472
00:21:57,920 --> 00:22:00,560
Speaker 1: his pick to President Trump, and Trump is always said

473
00:22:00,560 --> 00:22:02,800
Speaker 1: by the end of the year. Now the nomination wouldn't

474
00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:05,399
Speaker 1: actually come until after Jerome Paul leaves.

475
00:22:06,119 --> 00:22:07,720
Speaker 3: And how easy it will it be to get through

476
00:22:07,720 --> 00:22:08,080
Speaker 3: the Senate?

477
00:22:08,119 --> 00:22:10,119
Speaker 1: I think fairly easy if you go off of the

478
00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:14,040
Speaker 1: idea of the front runners, people like Kevin Moorrish, Kevin Hassett,

479
00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:18,879
Speaker 1: Secretary best in himself, Chris Waller, the governor. You know,

480
00:22:18,920 --> 00:22:21,280
Speaker 1: I don't think there's anything really hair controversial when it

481
00:22:21,280 --> 00:22:23,119
Speaker 1: comes to the Senate side, so I think it'd be

482
00:22:23,119 --> 00:22:23,800
Speaker 1: fairly easy.

483
00:22:24,240 --> 00:22:25,800
Speaker 3: And then the last question is him, is the.

484
00:22:25,760 --> 00:22:29,480
Speaker 1: Hemp band relevant production materials like paper and cloth, Yes,

485
00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:32,320
Speaker 1: a little bit. But to that client, I would ask you,

486
00:22:32,359 --> 00:22:34,320
Speaker 1: did you speak with my colleague Ken Shay.

487
00:22:34,880 --> 00:22:36,360
Speaker 3: He's our marijuana analyst.

488
00:22:36,359 --> 00:22:38,199
Speaker 1: They actually well, obviously he does a little bit more

489
00:22:38,240 --> 00:22:40,800
Speaker 1: than just marijuana, but he's done a lot of work

490
00:22:40,840 --> 00:22:43,439
Speaker 1: about hemp in particular, and so he can assist you.

491
00:22:44,200 --> 00:22:45,840
Speaker 3: So there is some relevance here.

492
00:22:45,880 --> 00:22:47,480
Speaker 1: But you know, off the top of my head, I

493
00:22:47,520 --> 00:22:50,359
Speaker 1: don't want to say it's market moving, but again I

494
00:22:50,359 --> 00:22:53,640
Speaker 1: will that can correct me if if I feel differently

495
00:22:53,840 --> 00:22:56,680
Speaker 1: or if he feels differently. So with that, I'm going

496
00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:58,359
Speaker 1: to sign off. I want to say thank you very

497
00:22:58,440 --> 00:23:01,359
Speaker 1: much for sticking in a few extra minutes on this call.

498
00:23:01,560 --> 00:23:04,080
Speaker 1: I promise going back, we'll go back to the ten

499
00:23:04,119 --> 00:23:06,440
Speaker 1: to fifteen minute mark next week. But there was just

500
00:23:06,480 --> 00:23:08,120
Speaker 1: a lot of talk about and we had missed a week.

501
00:23:08,440 --> 00:23:10,600
Speaker 1: But again, thank you very much. We really appreciate you

502
00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:12,520
Speaker 1: listening to those of you who are listening in Balanced

503
00:23:12,520 --> 00:23:13,159
Speaker 1: Power podcast.

504
00:23:13,240 --> 00:23:15,040
Speaker 3: We hope the audio are better for you now.

505
00:23:15,720 --> 00:23:19,600
Speaker 2: Our thanks to Nathan Deed, Bloomberg Intelligence senior policy analyst,

506
00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:23,359
Speaker 2: bringing you the latest installment of his weekly Washington Policy Pulse.

507
00:23:23,760 --> 00:23:26,520
Speaker 2: For more from BI or to join this call live

508
00:23:26,760 --> 00:23:30,440
Speaker 2: each week, you can email Nathan at ndan at Bloomberg

509
00:23:30,520 --> 00:23:31,040
Speaker 2: dot net.

510
00:23:31,320 --> 00:23:33,160
Speaker 3: That's nd Ea n at

511
00:23:33,200 --> 00:23:36,040
Speaker 2: Bloomberg dot net and come back to the podcast later

512
00:23:36,080 --> 00:23:38,720
Speaker 2: today for the latest edition of Balance of Power,