1
00:00:00,800 --> 00:00:06,080
Speaker 1: Global business news twenty four hours a day's Bloomberg dot

2
00:00:06,120 --> 00:00:08,960
Speaker 1: Com the radio plus mobile lact and on your radio.

3
00:00:09,240 --> 00:00:13,160
Speaker 1: This is a Bloomberg Business Flash and I'm Karen Moscow.

4
00:00:13,240 --> 00:00:16,880
Speaker 1: This updates brought to you by American Arbitration Association. International

5
00:00:16,920 --> 00:00:20,600
Speaker 1: Trade or Business Dispute Resolve Faster with the International Center

6
00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:24,440
Speaker 1: for Dispute Resolution, the leader in alternative dispute resolution around

7
00:00:24,480 --> 00:00:28,320
Speaker 1: the world, i c d R dot org. Othergan posting

8
00:00:28,360 --> 00:00:31,000
Speaker 1: first quarter earnings that beat analysts estimates in the first

9
00:00:31,000 --> 00:00:34,199
Speaker 1: financial report since it's one hundred sixty billion dollar proposed

10
00:00:34,280 --> 00:00:37,880
Speaker 1: takeover by Fiser collapsed in early April. It also said

11
00:00:37,880 --> 00:00:40,080
Speaker 1: it will buy back as much as ten billion dollars

12
00:00:40,080 --> 00:00:43,400
Speaker 1: in stock. It shares up a tense percent in early trading.

13
00:00:43,760 --> 00:00:46,839
Speaker 1: Dean Foods, the largest US milk processor, posted better than

14
00:00:46,880 --> 00:00:49,920
Speaker 1: expected first quarter profit after costs to Clide and the

15
00:00:49,960 --> 00:00:53,760
Speaker 1: company's Dairy Pure brand game market share. The bearers sentiment

16
00:00:53,800 --> 00:00:56,000
Speaker 1: that hit traders in the past two weeks is easing,

17
00:00:56,040 --> 00:00:58,680
Speaker 1: with u S stock index futures higher this morning. I'm

18
00:00:58,680 --> 00:01:01,240
Speaker 1: going a rebound in equity mark gets from Japan to Europe.

19
00:01:01,360 --> 00:01:03,840
Speaker 1: We checked the markets every fifteen minutes throughout the trading

20
00:01:03,920 --> 00:01:07,400
Speaker 1: day on Bloomberg, SNP emity futures up seven points, Dow

21
00:01:07,480 --> 00:01:09,920
Speaker 1: e Many future is up sixty seven and nasdac emny

22
00:01:10,000 --> 00:01:13,399
Speaker 1: futures up eleven dacks. In Germany's up half percent ten,

23
00:01:13,440 --> 00:01:16,000
Speaker 1: Your treasury down three thirty seconds, the yield one point

24
00:01:16,040 --> 00:01:18,840
Speaker 1: seven six percent. Nimex screwed oil down a tenth of

25
00:01:18,920 --> 00:01:21,400
Speaker 1: upper center five cents to forty three thirty nine a

26
00:01:21,480 --> 00:01:23,920
Speaker 1: barrel comex gold down a tenth of upper cent, or

27
00:01:23,959 --> 00:01:26,560
Speaker 1: a dollar sixty to twelve sixty five an ounce, the

28
00:01:26,640 --> 00:01:29,160
Speaker 1: euro a dollar thirteen seventy one, a yen one oh

29
00:01:29,240 --> 00:01:32,600
Speaker 1: nine point two three and gap down almost thirteen percent

30
00:01:32,640 --> 00:01:35,480
Speaker 1: after reporting same store sales fell in April. That's a

31
00:01:35,480 --> 00:01:39,000
Speaker 1: Bloomberg business flash. Tom and Mike kay, I'm thank you

32
00:01:39,120 --> 00:01:41,920
Speaker 1: very much. We're talking with Jim Swanson. He's chief investment

33
00:01:41,959 --> 00:01:45,960
Speaker 1: strategist at MFS Investment Management. And Tom, he has got

34
00:01:46,000 --> 00:01:48,680
Speaker 1: a lot of initials after his name. He's m B, A,

35
00:01:48,720 --> 00:01:50,880
Speaker 1: P B K, and c F A. I knew that

36
00:01:50,880 --> 00:01:55,000
Speaker 1: would get your attention, so we say mostly just Colgate. Yeah,

37
00:01:55,520 --> 00:01:58,440
Speaker 1: we saved the math for you, Uh, the mathy part

38
00:01:58,520 --> 00:02:01,000
Speaker 1: here of our our conversation, we're talking about the FED

39
00:02:01,520 --> 00:02:03,760
Speaker 1: and how it's not gonna make a whole lot of difference.

40
00:02:04,320 --> 00:02:07,680
Speaker 1: It's earnings and free cash flow that we should Yeah,

41
00:02:08,639 --> 00:02:10,880
Speaker 1: what I'm interested in more than anything when I look

42
00:02:10,960 --> 00:02:14,000
Speaker 1: at free cash flow is a manipulation of it by

43
00:02:14,120 --> 00:02:17,320
Speaker 1: reducing cap X. So if you get into trouble, it's

44
00:02:17,320 --> 00:02:20,520
Speaker 1: easy for any good company to level out or drop

45
00:02:20,600 --> 00:02:24,600
Speaker 1: down CAPEX too. Goose free cash flow? Are you observing that?

46
00:02:24,760 --> 00:02:28,960
Speaker 1: Is it a quality free cash flow? It is because

47
00:02:29,480 --> 00:02:33,399
Speaker 1: my argument throughout this whole cycle is that we're experiencing

48
00:02:33,480 --> 00:02:36,880
Speaker 1: excess margins. Margins that did not mean revert for this

49
00:02:37,040 --> 00:02:39,520
Speaker 1: last six and three quarters, So I think you need

50
00:02:39,600 --> 00:02:41,679
Speaker 1: to look at that as well. Margins have been a

51
00:02:41,720 --> 00:02:44,960
Speaker 1: big contributor here. I agree, it's been a cap X

52
00:02:45,040 --> 00:02:47,400
Speaker 1: light cycle as well, and we see that in the

53
00:02:47,440 --> 00:02:51,560
Speaker 1: aging of everything from software the factories, that everything is

54
00:02:51,600 --> 00:02:54,320
Speaker 1: pretty close to an all time old age if you will.

55
00:02:54,360 --> 00:02:57,880
Speaker 1: For the private infrastructure, um so it can be manipulated.

56
00:02:57,880 --> 00:03:01,600
Speaker 1: But the fact that margins until this last two quarters

57
00:03:01,919 --> 00:03:05,799
Speaker 1: have held up and actually X energy they're still holding up. Well,

58
00:03:05,840 --> 00:03:09,280
Speaker 1: So it's I look at both within that. What should

59
00:03:09,440 --> 00:03:13,959
Speaker 1: institutional investors do who need to allocate responsibly and they've

60
00:03:14,000 --> 00:03:17,359
Speaker 1: got a perspect this mandate. Did they load the boat

61
00:03:17,440 --> 00:03:21,280
Speaker 1: on a dividend growing stocks or is there a different path?

62
00:03:22,919 --> 00:03:24,840
Speaker 1: I don't know that there's a First of all, we

63
00:03:24,919 --> 00:03:28,760
Speaker 1: do know that capital reinvestment is better for long term

64
00:03:28,800 --> 00:03:31,200
Speaker 1: growth of earnings and CASHA that has has shown up

65
00:03:31,240 --> 00:03:34,200
Speaker 1: over time. So if you can identify and it tends

66
00:03:34,240 --> 00:03:37,240
Speaker 1: to be these big large cap companies, if you can

67
00:03:37,320 --> 00:03:40,360
Speaker 1: identify the free cash flow growers, they're going to sustain

68
00:03:40,400 --> 00:03:44,040
Speaker 1: their dividends, and in this world of yield scarcity, I

69
00:03:44,120 --> 00:03:48,040
Speaker 1: think you till your portfolio towards them. Very good, James Swanson,

70
00:03:48,080 --> 00:03:50,840
Speaker 1: thank you so much with the MFS, greatly appreciated. We

71
00:03:50,920 --> 00:03:55,040
Speaker 1: now digress joining us for the next three hours, Chuck,

72
00:03:55,360 --> 00:04:00,000
Speaker 1: David Todd the press. He's a moderator, and we got

73
00:04:00,080 --> 00:04:04,120
Speaker 1: three hours to discuss. He's gonna hours got three hours

74
00:04:04,200 --> 00:04:06,720
Speaker 1: with us, Chuck, I'm gonna suggest the last three or

75
00:04:06,760 --> 00:04:10,800
Speaker 1: four days have been arguably the most bizarre political days

76
00:04:11,520 --> 00:04:15,160
Speaker 1: in modern political history. You added back and forth with

77
00:04:15,280 --> 00:04:21,120
Speaker 1: Mr Trump recently framed for us what the debate's gonna

78
00:04:21,160 --> 00:04:27,000
Speaker 1: be is we staggered to meet the press NBC Sunday Morning. Wow. Uh,

79
00:04:27,640 --> 00:04:30,240
Speaker 1: first of all, this coming week, there's not going to

80
00:04:30,320 --> 00:04:33,040
Speaker 1: be a debate. Um, we are actually preempted for a

81
00:04:34,320 --> 00:04:37,560
Speaker 1: for English Premier League. That's a good thing. The Green

82
00:04:37,640 --> 00:04:42,360
Speaker 1: Day Parkers are not playing in that they've been relegated.

83
00:04:42,360 --> 00:04:48,159
Speaker 1: They've been relegated. Um, but it is it's funny you

84
00:04:48,200 --> 00:04:49,800
Speaker 1: say that that these have been most you know, I

85
00:04:49,839 --> 00:04:52,680
Speaker 1: feel like that's been the case about it about every

86
00:04:52,680 --> 00:04:56,080
Speaker 1: two weeks. I think, wow, these are really bizarre days.

87
00:04:56,120 --> 00:04:57,640
Speaker 1: I don't know if we've had any bizarre days like

88
00:04:57,680 --> 00:04:59,440
Speaker 1: this before and then all of a sudden or bizarre

89
00:04:59,520 --> 00:05:04,200
Speaker 1: days happen. Um. Look, I think Donald Trump's dude at

90
00:05:04,200 --> 00:05:07,000
Speaker 1: the Republican Party isn't over right, that's what That's what

91
00:05:07,000 --> 00:05:10,600
Speaker 1: we're in the middle of. Um. I think that influenced

92
00:05:10,880 --> 00:05:13,520
Speaker 1: Trump's instincts on his tax plan when he started talking

93
00:05:13,520 --> 00:05:16,200
Speaker 1: about it. I think that's influenced his instincts on the

94
00:05:16,440 --> 00:05:19,680
Speaker 1: on on what to say about funding and let's say

95
00:05:19,720 --> 00:05:23,640
Speaker 1: about alliance. So look, I think, uh, you know, this

96
00:05:23,680 --> 00:05:26,640
Speaker 1: isn't a crucial week for Trump. Kenny couldn't think Brian

97
00:05:26,720 --> 00:05:30,599
Speaker 1: to get on board. Can he find enough donors to

98
00:05:30,680 --> 00:05:35,360
Speaker 1: put together a competitive general election campaign. I'm skeptical to

99
00:05:35,440 --> 00:05:40,160
Speaker 1: boats driving the conversation forward. Michael McKee, this is what

100
00:05:40,200 --> 00:05:43,520
Speaker 1: we heard, you know what, it's my opening statement. But

101
00:05:43,720 --> 00:05:46,720
Speaker 1: everything is negotiable, I would suggest, Michael McKee, we never

102
00:05:46,760 --> 00:05:51,039
Speaker 1: heard that from Tip O'Neill. Well, well, actually Tip O'Neal

103
00:05:51,080 --> 00:05:52,800
Speaker 1: would go over to the White House with a fifth

104
00:05:52,800 --> 00:05:55,280
Speaker 1: of bourbon and sit down with Ronald Reagan and they

105
00:05:55,279 --> 00:05:57,400
Speaker 1: would negotiate and they would talk. You don't see that

106
00:05:57,480 --> 00:06:01,320
Speaker 1: in watching it anymore, But chuck. The question that seems

107
00:06:01,360 --> 00:06:04,520
Speaker 1: to be the real bottom line question in Washington these

108
00:06:04,560 --> 00:06:09,480
Speaker 1: days seems to be whether there will be the Republican

109
00:06:09,520 --> 00:06:14,240
Speaker 1: party we know today November. You've got some people who

110
00:06:14,240 --> 00:06:17,040
Speaker 1: are betting on Trump and a lot of people who

111
00:06:17,080 --> 00:06:20,119
Speaker 1: are not. What's the general feeling about where the party

112
00:06:20,200 --> 00:06:23,040
Speaker 1: ends up. It seems as if everybody's making their own

113
00:06:23,040 --> 00:06:27,400
Speaker 1: individual calculation with this. With this in mind, I've noticed

114
00:06:27,400 --> 00:06:33,799
Speaker 1: this pattern if a Republican is running in and still

115
00:06:33,839 --> 00:06:37,719
Speaker 1: face as a primary, or faces a really close election

116
00:06:37,839 --> 00:06:39,800
Speaker 1: in a state that they think Trump's done well, that

117
00:06:39,839 --> 00:06:42,960
Speaker 1: Trump's done well, and they're reluctantly they get on board.

118
00:06:43,080 --> 00:06:47,920
Speaker 1: John McCain is a perfect example, vulnerable in sixteen nervous

119
00:06:47,960 --> 00:06:50,919
Speaker 1: about Trump has said he's going to support the nominee.

120
00:06:51,279 --> 00:06:53,839
Speaker 1: Arizona's a state that obviously Trump did very well, and

121
00:06:53,839 --> 00:06:56,520
Speaker 1: but at the same time about a lot of hispanics.

122
00:06:57,240 --> 00:07:00,600
Speaker 1: Then you have a whole bunch of Republicans, what Ryan's

123
00:07:00,600 --> 00:07:03,160
Speaker 1: in this in this camp who are sitting there and

124
00:07:03,279 --> 00:07:06,200
Speaker 1: thinking the stain of Trump is going to be hard

125
00:07:06,240 --> 00:07:11,800
Speaker 1: to wash away even even if he loses. And and

126
00:07:11,880 --> 00:07:14,200
Speaker 1: the idea is people will be keeping score. Were you

127
00:07:14,240 --> 00:07:16,320
Speaker 1: with him or or did you try to fight the

128
00:07:16,400 --> 00:07:21,240
Speaker 1: virus um? And I think that's that's why you see

129
00:07:21,760 --> 00:07:24,720
Speaker 1: some people falling on one one side, some people falling

130
00:07:24,760 --> 00:07:27,960
Speaker 1: in love right on the other. Chuck Todd Andrew Toubias

131
00:07:27,960 --> 00:07:31,200
Speaker 1: to Cleveland playing deal. This morning, Mr Trump leads a

132
00:07:31,280 --> 00:07:34,680
Speaker 1: secretary in Ohio. A new poll says everybody in the

133
00:07:34,760 --> 00:07:38,080
Speaker 1: last twenty four hours is all rust spelled You own

134
00:07:38,200 --> 00:07:40,400
Speaker 1: as you did before you were doing met the press,

135
00:07:40,720 --> 00:07:44,240
Speaker 1: the minutia of polling. What is the unique feature of

136
00:07:44,320 --> 00:07:49,920
Speaker 1: Ohio that Mr Trump has to discover to take Ohio? Well, look,

137
00:07:49,960 --> 00:07:53,120
Speaker 1: I mean, Ohio's some argue. It's that it's four or

138
00:07:53,120 --> 00:07:55,680
Speaker 1: five different states, you know where he's got to do

139
00:07:55,800 --> 00:07:58,320
Speaker 1: really well is basically on the on the parts that

140
00:07:58,400 --> 00:08:01,960
Speaker 1: border Pennsylvania and West Virginia, essentially on the sort of

141
00:08:02,040 --> 00:08:05,000
Speaker 1: the east, the eastern and southeastern border. That's where he's

142
00:08:05,000 --> 00:08:07,240
Speaker 1: got to run up the score. That's a lot of

143
00:08:07,560 --> 00:08:10,400
Speaker 1: there's a little appellation there, there's a little coal miners

144
00:08:10,400 --> 00:08:12,720
Speaker 1: in there, there's a little a lot of white working

145
00:08:12,760 --> 00:08:15,880
Speaker 1: class vote. That's where he has to to overperform. But

146
00:08:15,920 --> 00:08:17,960
Speaker 1: I have to tell you just be very careful of

147
00:08:17,960 --> 00:08:19,840
Speaker 1: these poles that you see up this morning from from

148
00:08:19,840 --> 00:08:25,240
Speaker 1: my friend I take these days, I use a bag

149
00:08:25,240 --> 00:08:27,320
Speaker 1: of fault and I look at that. Okay, But but

150
00:08:27,880 --> 00:08:32,520
Speaker 1: is important Athens, Ohio we don't talk about enough. And

151
00:08:32,600 --> 00:08:36,679
Speaker 1: whether it's Mr Sanders, Mike McKee or Mr Trump Athens,

152
00:08:36,679 --> 00:08:42,240
Speaker 1: Ohio is what's in play. I gotta ask this, Chuck,

153
00:08:42,640 --> 00:08:46,560
Speaker 1: those who are supporting the nominee and nobody ever mentions

154
00:08:46,600 --> 00:08:50,800
Speaker 1: his name, But those are those close states just so sure.

155
00:08:50,800 --> 00:08:53,400
Speaker 1: They're afraid of that. They're afraid of saying Kelly it

156
00:08:53,400 --> 00:08:55,199
Speaker 1: was a classic. They don't want to utter the word

157
00:08:55,640 --> 00:08:57,840
Speaker 1: they be used in the TV AD. They want to

158
00:08:57,840 --> 00:09:00,920
Speaker 1: protect their seats. But does anybody want Donald Trump to

159
00:09:01,000 --> 00:09:05,160
Speaker 1: actually win. You know, there are some that do. And

160
00:09:05,200 --> 00:09:08,120
Speaker 1: it goes to the first thing, um that was said

161
00:09:08,120 --> 00:09:10,640
Speaker 1: earlier during our chat here, which is the ideas everything

162
00:09:10,679 --> 00:09:13,839
Speaker 1: is negotiable espetially is some some folks on on Capit

163
00:09:13,920 --> 00:09:16,200
Speaker 1: Hill that I'm looking around back and going, you know what,

164
00:09:17,360 --> 00:09:20,000
Speaker 1: will never ever president like that? Who actually will? Who

165
00:09:20,040 --> 00:09:24,480
Speaker 1: actually probably does believe everything is negotiable, meaning everything is negotiable.

166
00:09:24,520 --> 00:09:27,040
Speaker 1: It will, it will, it will. There are some that

167
00:09:27,160 --> 00:09:30,160
Speaker 1: think that it will empower the legislative branch in ways

168
00:09:30,160 --> 00:09:34,480
Speaker 1: who we haven't seen before because he is so because

169
00:09:34,480 --> 00:09:38,560
Speaker 1: he doesn't have an ideological um you know, some ideological

170
00:09:38,840 --> 00:09:43,320
Speaker 1: of um issue that he claims to really other than trade, right,

171
00:09:43,679 --> 00:09:46,120
Speaker 1: the only thing he's consistent on and seems to care

172
00:09:46,120 --> 00:09:50,080
Speaker 1: the most about is igniting a trade war with somebody

173
00:09:50,200 --> 00:09:53,840
Speaker 1: or with multiple somebody. But but it's really on trade agreements.

174
00:09:53,920 --> 00:09:57,080
Speaker 1: Is the only thing that there is um consistency with

175
00:09:57,160 --> 00:10:00,280
Speaker 1: him and and sort of what I would call um

176
00:10:00,480 --> 00:10:05,360
Speaker 1: uh dogg it, you know, some sort of dogged ideological belief.

177
00:10:05,800 --> 00:10:08,440
Speaker 1: Everything else with him is the coastable. Hey, very quickly,

178
00:10:08,440 --> 00:10:11,839
Speaker 1: thirty seconds unfortunately, as all we got. But if Bernie

179
00:10:11,880 --> 00:10:14,559
Speaker 1: Sanders wins to primaries day anyway, he peels off any

180
00:10:14,600 --> 00:10:18,680
Speaker 1: of the super delegates and actually makes this a race. Uh,

181
00:10:18,720 --> 00:10:20,640
Speaker 1: he might peel off a handful of super delegates, but

182
00:10:20,720 --> 00:10:24,280
Speaker 1: answer is now, I mean there is. Look, there's nervousness

183
00:10:24,280 --> 00:10:28,160
Speaker 1: about Clintmann's nominee against Trump, but there's more nervousness about

184
00:10:28,440 --> 00:10:31,880
Speaker 1: Sanders messing that up than there is a Clinton messing enough.

185
00:10:32,960 --> 00:10:34,959
Speaker 1: Chuck Tyle, thank you so much. She's the moderating I

186
00:10:35,040 --> 00:10:38,600
Speaker 1: Met the Press NBC. You can see it on NBC

187
00:10:38,720 --> 00:10:43,400
Speaker 1: Sunday Morning. Here it on Bloomberg Radio Sunday Afternoon. Uh,

188
00:10:43,600 --> 00:10:46,000
Speaker 1: one of one of our most popular features of the

189
00:10:46,080 --> 00:10:50,000
Speaker 1: Sunday shows that we have on beginning, I get lots

190
00:10:50,040 --> 00:10:54,880
Speaker 1: of commons love to catch up on on all the

191
00:10:54,920 --> 00:10:56,960
Speaker 1: Sunday shows. They don't get a chance to see him,

192
00:10:56,960 --> 00:10:58,880
Speaker 1: and they can drive around or listen to him later

193
00:10:58,880 --> 00:11:01,160
Speaker 1: in the day, which reminds me of bloomberg Best on

194
00:11:01,200 --> 00:11:05,280
Speaker 1: the weekends on Bloomberg Television is immediately proved popular. Bloomberg Best,

195
00:11:05,679 --> 00:11:07,680
Speaker 1: the best of what we have on television. Look for that,

196
00:11:07,800 --> 00:11:10,880
Speaker 1: much like what we do on radio with Meet the Press.

197
00:11:10,920 --> 00:11:12,320
Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg's surveillance