1 00:00:03,960 --> 00:00:08,440 Speaker 1: Broadcasting live to New York Bloomberg eleven, to Washington, d 2 00:00:08,480 --> 00:00:12,760 Speaker 1: C Bloomberg to Boston, Bloomberg Well under It, to San 3 00:00:12,800 --> 00:00:17,239 Speaker 1: Francisco Bloomberg ninety to the Country Series Exam Channel one 4 00:00:17,320 --> 00:00:20,720 Speaker 1: nine and around the globe the Bloomberg Radio Plus app 5 00:00:20,800 --> 00:00:24,520 Speaker 1: and Bloomberg Got Gone. This is taking stock. I'm Kathleen 6 00:00:24,600 --> 00:00:27,440 Speaker 1: Hayes Long pim Blos for broadcasting live the Bloomberg Markets 7 00:00:27,480 --> 00:00:33,280 Speaker 1: Most Influential Summit at our Bloomberg World headquarters. Globalization. Where 8 00:00:33,320 --> 00:00:35,920 Speaker 1: is it heading? Have we reached the end of globalization? 9 00:00:36,000 --> 00:00:39,240 Speaker 1: This is one of the topics here at Bloomberg Markets 10 00:00:39,280 --> 00:00:42,680 Speaker 1: Most Influential PIM And we're going to be speaking to 11 00:00:42,880 --> 00:00:46,519 Speaker 1: a panelist shortly to talk about, you know, maybe Donald 12 00:00:46,560 --> 00:00:50,000 Speaker 1: Trump shouldn't be so worried the trade is actually shrinking 13 00:00:50,000 --> 00:00:52,279 Speaker 1: in the global economy. Yes, our guests tub will be 14 00:00:52,320 --> 00:00:56,640 Speaker 1: Alan Krueger, a Princeton University professor of economics and public affairs, 15 00:00:56,880 --> 00:01:01,040 Speaker 1: former head of the Council Economic Advisors in the administration. 16 00:01:01,120 --> 00:01:02,920 Speaker 1: Right now, that let's Charlie Pellet in the Blue of 17 00:01:03,040 --> 00:01:06,120 Speaker 1: News Corporder Business left and I think it very much 18 00:01:06,160 --> 00:01:09,040 Speaker 1: PIM Fox. Thank you, Kathleen, Hayes, speaking of influence, gott 19 00:01:09,040 --> 00:01:13,160 Speaker 1: to begin with crude oil today surging four point four percent, 20 00:01:13,280 --> 00:01:16,680 Speaker 1: helping lift equities, the DAL, the SMP nestack all the 21 00:01:16,680 --> 00:01:20,840 Speaker 1: advancing West Texas intermediate crude now at forty six sixty 22 00:01:20,880 --> 00:01:24,160 Speaker 1: three for a barrel. OPEC agreeing to cut production for 23 00:01:24,160 --> 00:01:27,200 Speaker 1: the first time in eight years. And this uptake brought 24 00:01:27,200 --> 00:01:30,640 Speaker 1: to you by instinct options from Bank of America, Merrill Lynch, 25 00:01:30,720 --> 00:01:35,000 Speaker 1: Capture liquidity and US equity and index options, by trading, 26 00:01:35,160 --> 00:01:39,319 Speaker 1: by unleashing the in depth market insights and adaptive algo 27 00:01:39,400 --> 00:01:45,080 Speaker 1: strategies of instinct options. That's the power of global connections. 28 00:01:45,640 --> 00:01:48,320 Speaker 1: OPEC cutting production for the first time in eight years, 29 00:01:48,320 --> 00:01:51,320 Speaker 1: according to a delegate briefed on the matter, sending oil 30 00:01:51,400 --> 00:01:56,120 Speaker 1: prices up as Saudi Arabia and Irrong or Iran wrong 31 00:01:56,160 --> 00:01:58,840 Speaker 1: footed traders who expected a continuation of the pump and 32 00:01:58,920 --> 00:02:03,240 Speaker 1: Will policy Group adopted it in two thousand fourteen. Crude 33 00:02:03,240 --> 00:02:06,320 Speaker 1: oil up now by four point four percent, rallying two 34 00:02:06,400 --> 00:02:10,560 Speaker 1: dollars of the barrel to forty six sixty three. California, 35 00:02:10,639 --> 00:02:14,080 Speaker 1: the nation's largest issue of municipal bonds, is barring Wells 36 00:02:14,120 --> 00:02:18,280 Speaker 1: Fargo from underwriting state debt and handling its banking transactions 37 00:02:18,280 --> 00:02:22,680 Speaker 1: after the company admitted to opening potentially millions of bogus 38 00:02:22,720 --> 00:02:25,920 Speaker 1: customer accounts. Wells Fargo shares up one tenth of one percent, 39 00:02:26,320 --> 00:02:28,919 Speaker 1: Goal down six sixty, the Ounce down five tenths of 40 00:02:29,000 --> 00:02:32,000 Speaker 1: one percent, the tenure down to thirty seconds, Zeal one 41 00:02:32,040 --> 00:02:36,200 Speaker 1: point five seven percent, SMP five index up six again. 42 00:02:36,240 --> 00:02:39,359 Speaker 1: There of three tenths of one percent, and right now 43 00:02:39,400 --> 00:02:41,400 Speaker 1: three thirty two on Wall Street. Let's take a look 44 00:02:41,400 --> 00:02:45,400 Speaker 1: at some of the other stories making news. Thank you, 45 00:02:45,480 --> 00:02:48,000 Speaker 1: Charlie from the Bloomberg news Room. I'm Jill Schneider. This 46 00:02:48,040 --> 00:02:50,560 Speaker 1: news update is brought to you by the jeep Grand Cherokee, 47 00:02:50,720 --> 00:02:54,320 Speaker 1: the most awarded suv ever. The Grand Cherokee continues to 48 00:02:54,440 --> 00:02:57,839 Speaker 1: raise the bar with its luxurious interior and legendary four 49 00:02:57,840 --> 00:03:01,240 Speaker 1: by four capability. Drive one at your local cheap dealer today. 50 00:03:01,760 --> 00:03:04,480 Speaker 1: For the first time in his presidency, Congress has voted 51 00:03:04,520 --> 00:03:08,400 Speaker 1: to override a President Obama veto. The House overwhelmingly voted 52 00:03:09,440 --> 00:03:12,320 Speaker 1: to seventy seven to override a bill that will allow 53 00:03:12,360 --> 00:03:15,160 Speaker 1: Saudi Arabia to be sued for involvement in the nine 54 00:03:15,160 --> 00:03:18,560 Speaker 1: eleven attacks. Earlier, the Senate voted nine seven to one, 55 00:03:18,919 --> 00:03:21,919 Speaker 1: with the single no vote coming from Minority Leader Harry Reid. 56 00:03:22,040 --> 00:03:25,600 Speaker 1: First Lady Michelle Obama is out campaigning for Hillary Clinton. Today, 57 00:03:25,960 --> 00:03:30,359 Speaker 1: Mrs Obama addressed a crowd at Philadelphia's LaSalle University. Remember, 58 00:03:30,919 --> 00:03:34,080 Speaker 1: it's not about voting for the perfect candidate. There is 59 00:03:34,240 --> 00:03:38,760 Speaker 1: no such person, and this election, it's about making a 60 00:03:38,880 --> 00:03:42,520 Speaker 1: choice between two very different candidates with very different visions 61 00:03:42,840 --> 00:03:45,720 Speaker 1: for our nation. Mrs Obama also said the country needs 62 00:03:45,800 --> 00:03:48,800 Speaker 1: quote an adult in the White House. Israel is mourning 63 00:03:48,800 --> 00:03:51,760 Speaker 1: the death of former President and Prime Minister Shimon Perez. 64 00:03:52,040 --> 00:03:54,960 Speaker 1: Former President Bill Clinton will be among those attending his 65 00:03:55,040 --> 00:03:59,040 Speaker 1: funeral Friday. I'm very grateful to him for a lifetime 66 00:03:59,120 --> 00:04:03,040 Speaker 1: of taking big thoughts and dreaming big dreams and figuring 67 00:04:03,040 --> 00:04:06,120 Speaker 1: out practical ways to achieve. The Penn Station, the nation's 68 00:04:06,120 --> 00:04:09,320 Speaker 1: busiest transit hub, could finally be getting a makeover. Governor 69 00:04:09,360 --> 00:04:12,120 Speaker 1: Andrew Cuomo has unveiled at one point six billion dollar 70 00:04:12,200 --> 00:04:14,840 Speaker 1: plan that would create a retail space at the James A. 71 00:04:15,000 --> 00:04:17,760 Speaker 1: Farley Building across the Avenue and a waiting hall for 72 00:04:17,800 --> 00:04:21,520 Speaker 1: Amtrak and Long Island Railroad passengers. Global News twenty four 73 00:04:21,560 --> 00:04:24,640 Speaker 1: hours a day, powered by more than twenty journalists and 74 00:04:24,760 --> 00:04:28,120 Speaker 1: analysts in more than one twenty countries. I'm Jil Schneider. 75 00:04:28,320 --> 00:04:31,640 Speaker 1: This is Bloomberg, Charlie, and we thank you, but again, 76 00:04:31,800 --> 00:04:34,360 Speaker 1: keeping an eye on crude oil. West Texas Intermediate up 77 00:04:34,360 --> 00:04:37,400 Speaker 1: now by four point four percent, a barrel of w 78 00:04:37,480 --> 00:04:41,039 Speaker 1: t I sixty three equities higher, SMP up six, a 79 00:04:41,080 --> 00:04:44,480 Speaker 1: gain of three tenths of one percent. I'm Charlie Pellett. 80 00:04:44,480 --> 00:04:48,680 Speaker 1: Thatath's a Bloomberg business flash. You're listening to Taking Stock 81 00:04:48,800 --> 00:04:52,640 Speaker 1: with Kathleen Mays and Pim Fox on Bloomberg Radcroft broadcasting 82 00:04:52,680 --> 00:04:55,360 Speaker 1: live today for the liver Market's most Influential Summit at 83 00:04:55,360 --> 00:04:59,279 Speaker 1: our world headquarters here in New York. Take a look 84 00:04:59,480 --> 00:05:03,680 Speaker 1: at globalization and where are the world is heading now, 85 00:05:03,720 --> 00:05:06,400 Speaker 1: particularly in this election year when there are so many 86 00:05:06,440 --> 00:05:09,880 Speaker 1: debates around trade, trade deals and more. Joining us now 87 00:05:10,080 --> 00:05:12,039 Speaker 1: is Alan Krueger, who's former head of the Council of 88 00:05:12,040 --> 00:05:16,200 Speaker 1: Economic Advisors, professor at Princeton University, and he's faring to 89 00:05:16,200 --> 00:05:18,400 Speaker 1: you talk about his panel today. Whether the sun is 90 00:05:18,440 --> 00:05:23,120 Speaker 1: setting on globalization? So Ellen, is it? Uh? Is it 91 00:05:23,360 --> 00:05:27,000 Speaker 1: twilight for globalization? Or is it just some dark clouds 92 00:05:27,160 --> 00:05:29,719 Speaker 1: obscuring the sun, so it feels like like the sun 93 00:05:29,800 --> 00:05:33,640 Speaker 1: is setting. The word I used was moderation. I think 94 00:05:33,680 --> 00:05:37,320 Speaker 1: we're seeing a moderate ration and globalization when it comes 95 00:05:37,360 --> 00:05:39,760 Speaker 1: to trade as well as when it comes to immigration. 96 00:05:40,360 --> 00:05:42,479 Speaker 1: Is this a bad thing or a good thing? I 97 00:05:42,520 --> 00:05:46,159 Speaker 1: think it was a somewhat inevitable thing in that there 98 00:05:46,279 --> 00:05:51,800 Speaker 1: was enormous rush of globalization when the Soviet Union collapsed 99 00:05:51,839 --> 00:05:57,080 Speaker 1: and Eastern Europe joined the modern world, the capitalist system, uh, 100 00:05:57,120 --> 00:05:59,280 Speaker 1: and then when China joined the world trading system, and 101 00:05:59,400 --> 00:06:02,600 Speaker 1: I think that that led to a long period of 102 00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:07,080 Speaker 1: expanding trade. And now we're reaching more of an equilibrium 103 00:06:07,120 --> 00:06:11,080 Speaker 1: point where wages have been driven up in China, the 104 00:06:11,080 --> 00:06:15,520 Speaker 1: infrastructure has been driven down to the point that they 105 00:06:15,560 --> 00:06:18,160 Speaker 1: are really quite stretched in terms of their infrastructure. We're 106 00:06:18,160 --> 00:06:21,600 Speaker 1: seeing companies bring more work back to the US. In fact, 107 00:06:21,640 --> 00:06:25,320 Speaker 1: we're seeing companies re shoring UH some work in the US, 108 00:06:25,360 --> 00:06:27,920 Speaker 1: and I think that trend will probably continue. The same 109 00:06:27,920 --> 00:06:31,440 Speaker 1: thing with immigration. I think we saw very rapid immigration 110 00:06:31,480 --> 00:06:34,680 Speaker 1: to the US, particularly from Mexico when we had our 111 00:06:34,720 --> 00:06:37,520 Speaker 1: housing bubble, and since then we've actually had a net 112 00:06:37,520 --> 00:06:43,200 Speaker 1: autmoinigration to Mexico. Professor Krueger, there's so much I want 113 00:06:43,200 --> 00:06:44,640 Speaker 1: to answer, so I just want to throw out some 114 00:06:44,720 --> 00:06:47,200 Speaker 1: topics and maybe get your maybe you can connect them. 115 00:06:47,240 --> 00:06:50,200 Speaker 1: For for us UM, one of your earliest pieces of 116 00:06:50,240 --> 00:06:54,200 Speaker 1: research has to do with the restaurant industry and minimum wage. 117 00:06:54,960 --> 00:06:59,039 Speaker 1: You've written books about wage inequality. We've also written a 118 00:06:59,080 --> 00:07:02,640 Speaker 1: book about terrorism. Wondering if there's a way to connect 119 00:07:02,720 --> 00:07:06,160 Speaker 1: all those things in the context of trade agreements and 120 00:07:06,200 --> 00:07:09,200 Speaker 1: what they will ultimately do in a variety of ways, 121 00:07:09,200 --> 00:07:12,240 Speaker 1: because trade is not just about stuff, it's about people. 122 00:07:12,960 --> 00:07:16,720 Speaker 1: And supposedly, if you actually know somebody, chances are you're 123 00:07:16,720 --> 00:07:20,640 Speaker 1: gonna feel less aggressive towards them, uh, because you're gonna 124 00:07:20,680 --> 00:07:22,680 Speaker 1: know something rather than just hear it or think it 125 00:07:22,800 --> 00:07:25,920 Speaker 1: or get that information that might not be true. Well, 126 00:07:25,920 --> 00:07:28,720 Speaker 1: there are a lot of crosscurrents are not So I'll 127 00:07:28,720 --> 00:07:32,400 Speaker 1: do I'll do my best. The point I think which 128 00:07:32,440 --> 00:07:36,600 Speaker 1: is underappreciated about trade agreements is they are as much 129 00:07:36,760 --> 00:07:41,200 Speaker 1: international relations policy as they are economic policy. And if 130 00:07:41,280 --> 00:07:44,720 Speaker 1: you look at NAFTA, for example, in our eighteen trillion 131 00:07:44,720 --> 00:07:48,760 Speaker 1: dollar economy in the US, NAFTA had very little effect 132 00:07:49,240 --> 00:07:51,520 Speaker 1: one way or the other in terms of our economic growth, 133 00:07:51,920 --> 00:07:54,280 Speaker 1: or wages. I think it was positive on that. I 134 00:07:54,320 --> 00:07:57,600 Speaker 1: think that's why the economy did so well in THEES 135 00:07:57,680 --> 00:08:00,720 Speaker 1: after NAFTA. But I would have to acknowledge that was 136 00:08:00,720 --> 00:08:03,679 Speaker 1: pretty small. But it did help our relationship with Mexico 137 00:08:03,720 --> 00:08:07,760 Speaker 1: and Canada. And now when returning to the other parts 138 00:08:07,800 --> 00:08:09,920 Speaker 1: of the world, do we want to have better relations 139 00:08:09,920 --> 00:08:11,680 Speaker 1: but the rest of the world or worst relations? I 140 00:08:11,760 --> 00:08:13,920 Speaker 1: think when it comes to our national security, it's better 141 00:08:14,080 --> 00:08:17,920 Speaker 1: to have better relations. So I think one aspect of 142 00:08:17,960 --> 00:08:21,360 Speaker 1: trade agreements is that it helps to further our national 143 00:08:21,440 --> 00:08:25,120 Speaker 1: security interests. And if you have a candidate who says 144 00:08:25,120 --> 00:08:26,880 Speaker 1: I'm going to tear up agreements that we have, I 145 00:08:26,920 --> 00:08:30,120 Speaker 1: think that works in reverse. And I think it makes 146 00:08:30,120 --> 00:08:32,840 Speaker 1: it very difficult to negotiate agreements that are in the 147 00:08:32,880 --> 00:08:36,720 Speaker 1: interests of the US, both economically and in our international 148 00:08:37,040 --> 00:08:42,360 Speaker 1: security interests. If we have bluster coming from politicians about 149 00:08:42,480 --> 00:08:46,320 Speaker 1: withdrawing from agreements which we have previously negotiated in good faith, 150 00:08:46,600 --> 00:08:51,520 Speaker 1: as we make future trader greaments, assuming that that happens. Uh. 151 00:08:52,000 --> 00:08:54,360 Speaker 1: Is it important though, to see that our experience with 152 00:08:54,480 --> 00:08:58,520 Speaker 1: China was not altogether good. Our our relationship with our trade, 153 00:08:59,320 --> 00:09:01,280 Speaker 1: our trade relatestions and the fact that they pegged their 154 00:09:01,280 --> 00:09:04,640 Speaker 1: currency for so long helped all about manufacturing in this country. 155 00:09:04,640 --> 00:09:08,200 Speaker 1: There's I think it's hard to dispute that also they've 156 00:09:08,200 --> 00:09:12,080 Speaker 1: blocked intellectual property, they stolen intellectual property. Is there some 157 00:09:12,200 --> 00:09:14,840 Speaker 1: way in future trade agreements that will makes sure that 158 00:09:14,920 --> 00:09:17,720 Speaker 1: free trade is fair trade. I think you raised very 159 00:09:17,720 --> 00:09:21,560 Speaker 1: important points and also recognized it was not trade agreement 160 00:09:22,040 --> 00:09:26,600 Speaker 1: that led to China's expansion in the US. UM, we 161 00:09:26,640 --> 00:09:29,000 Speaker 1: don't have a trade agreement with China. And one of 162 00:09:29,040 --> 00:09:32,120 Speaker 1: the arguments that President Obamas maybe I think is exactly 163 00:09:32,240 --> 00:09:38,560 Speaker 1: right is t p P UH would prevent China from 164 00:09:38,559 --> 00:09:40,360 Speaker 1: writing the rules of the road when it comes to 165 00:09:40,440 --> 00:09:45,600 Speaker 1: the economic relations in Asia. UH, it will be US 166 00:09:45,640 --> 00:09:48,680 Speaker 1: standards that would protect intellectual property. For example, we solved 167 00:09:48,679 --> 00:09:51,920 Speaker 1: them a lot of treasuries. That was something that we 168 00:09:52,000 --> 00:09:54,400 Speaker 1: did that they that they bought from us. Well, I 169 00:09:54,440 --> 00:09:56,680 Speaker 1: think they bought treasuries from US because they recognize that 170 00:09:56,720 --> 00:09:59,960 Speaker 1: we are the strongest, most responsible country in the world 171 00:10:00,480 --> 00:10:04,320 Speaker 1: UH and a good place to invest UM. And I 172 00:10:04,360 --> 00:10:07,640 Speaker 1: think we are now at a point where China's currency 173 00:10:07,800 --> 00:10:12,120 Speaker 1: is roughly valued appropriately. I think for a long time 174 00:10:12,160 --> 00:10:15,720 Speaker 1: it did um a weekend its currency. But I think now, 175 00:10:16,040 --> 00:10:18,600 Speaker 1: given how poorly China has fared over the last few 176 00:10:18,640 --> 00:10:21,400 Speaker 1: years and how much better the US has grown, you 177 00:10:21,400 --> 00:10:24,439 Speaker 1: would see a reversal. UH. So, I think it's very 178 00:10:24,440 --> 00:10:30,040 Speaker 1: hard to say that the currency manipulation UH is causing 179 00:10:30,080 --> 00:10:32,559 Speaker 1: a lot of damage to this economy today. Now, I 180 00:10:32,600 --> 00:10:35,200 Speaker 1: think that's something you need to monitor very closely going forward. 181 00:10:35,840 --> 00:10:37,400 Speaker 1: I want to thank you very much for coming in 182 00:10:37,480 --> 00:10:39,880 Speaker 1: and spending time with us. Alan Krueger. He is the 183 00:10:39,920 --> 00:10:42,880 Speaker 1: former head of the Council of Economic Advisors, currently a 184 00:10:43,000 --> 00:10:47,640 Speaker 1: professor at Princeton University, and the author of many books, 185 00:10:47,720 --> 00:10:52,800 Speaker 1: one Quality Education and Terrorists. You're listening to taking Stock, 186 00:10:52,880 --> 00:10:56,559 Speaker 1: I'm pin Fox my co host Kathleen Hayes. This is Bloomberg. 187 00:11:00,440 --> 00:11:03,120 Speaker 1: Bloombertaking's Stock is brought to you by Cone Resnick look Ahead, 188 00:11:03,200 --> 00:11:05,880 Speaker 1: Gain Insight, Imagine More, Get forward thinking advice that can 189 00:11:05,880 --> 00:11:09,600 Speaker 1: help turn business possibilities into business opportunities. Find out more 190 00:11:09,640 --> 00:11:15,199 Speaker 1: at Cone Resnick dot com.