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Speaker 1: This is Straight Fire with Jason McIntyre. What is up

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Speaker 1: straight Fire, fam, It's me Jason McIntyre. Straight Fire for Friday,

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Speaker 1: October eighth, The weekend is here. Gave out another winner

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Speaker 1: on the best bet here on Straight Fire the Rams.

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Speaker 1: Thank goodness, Gino Smith had to come in. You knew

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Speaker 1: it was locked up when Gino Smith had to come in.

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Speaker 1: When uh, Russell Wilson, what is that? A fractured finger?

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Speaker 1: That was so disgusting. I'm eating dinner with my daughter.

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Speaker 1: The wife got tickets to Dave Chappelle last night, so

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Speaker 1: she went to the Hollywood Bowl to see Chappelle with

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Speaker 1: some moms. And I'm eating dinner take out of course

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Speaker 1: with the daughter while the son's at soccer practice and

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Speaker 1: Russell Wilson shows like his gnarly finger on the screen

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Speaker 1: and it's like, oh no, you know, my daughter almost vomited.

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Speaker 1: Just a bit of a nightmare in the MacIntyre our household. Nevertheless,

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Speaker 1: very happy that the Rams delivered the victory. And I

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Speaker 1: just want to point out a couple of things. Number One,

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Speaker 1: the Seattle Seahawks are in trouble, folks. This team just

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Speaker 1: does not look very good. I know they took the

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Speaker 1: early lead, and people will say, oh, well, you know

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Speaker 1: they were still in it. They had a chance of

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Speaker 1: If Russell Wilson doesn't go down, you guys can make

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Speaker 1: all the excuses you want. If Russ is gonna be

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Speaker 1: gone for any period of time, it's over. Okay, next

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Speaker 1: week Steelers in primetime. I know the Steelers are not good.

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Speaker 1: That being said, that game will be close because the

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Speaker 1: Steelers play defense, and guess what their offense should move through.

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Speaker 1: Seattle's really bad defense, which I'll get to in a second.

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Speaker 1: And then they get the Saints and yes, then they

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Speaker 1: have the Jaguars. But Packers, Cardinals, we're looking at a

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Speaker 1: what are they two and three now? They I don't

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Speaker 1: know that they're gonna be five when we get to December. Honestly,

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Speaker 1: this team is hurtling toward irrelevance. And you're Jay Glazer

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Speaker 1: on Fox before the game, say, hey, the stunt rust pulled,

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Speaker 1: He's probably gonna pull it again in the off season.

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Speaker 1: I'm not saying exactly, that's not exactly what he said.

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Speaker 1: I'm paraphrasing, but essentially, yeah, the same thing is probably

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Speaker 1: gonna play out once again with Russ, and I think

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Speaker 1: It's time now to talk about Jamal Adams the big

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Speaker 1: story in Seattle. I don't if you have a radio

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Speaker 1: show in Seattle, if you are talking Seahawks on radio, television,

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Speaker 1: anything today, this Jamal Adams disaster has to be your

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Speaker 1: top story for the Seahawks, because, folks, that was a

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Speaker 1: close game. In the third quarter, the Rams had a

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Speaker 1: third and ten. I think the Rams are up seven.

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Speaker 1: You know, crowds loud, you get a stop here, you

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Speaker 1: get the ball back, You're right back in the game.

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Speaker 1: They throw a bomb to Deshan Jackson. They have him

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Speaker 1: with two guys on him, the cornerback leading him to

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Speaker 1: the safety. Jamal Adams is the safety and Jamal Adams

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Speaker 1: had no freaking clue where the ball was. Totally deep

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Speaker 1: ansked by Jackson, picks up like fifty yards bing bang boom.

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Speaker 1: I mean they're in the red zone. And of course

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Speaker 1: the play. A couple of plays prior to that, Jamal

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Speaker 1: Adams struggled against Darrell Henderson, the running back just totally

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Speaker 1: hit the wrong gap, got beat, ends up diving and

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Speaker 1: missing the tackle. And then for the touchdown pass, who

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Speaker 1: does Matt Stafford target? You guessed it. Jamal Adams in coverage,

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Speaker 1: he is a nightmare. This is well chronicled. I'm not

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Speaker 1: being a hater. I saw the guy on Twitter who

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Speaker 1: said I'm so negative and Rob is negative. We're not negative.

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Speaker 1: This is reality. Jamal Adams stinks in coverage. The numbers

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Speaker 1: were there last year. The Jets didn't want to pay him,

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Speaker 1: Seattle decided, sure, we'll make him ayas paid safety in

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Speaker 1: NFL history. And he can't defend anybody in coverage. That

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Speaker 1: One of the funniest stats last year was something along

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Speaker 1: the lines of Julian Edelman only had like three catches

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Speaker 1: of over twenty yards all season. All of them came

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Speaker 1: with Jamal Adams was in coverage. I'm telling the guy's

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Speaker 1: not good in coverage. He's great inside the box, but

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Speaker 1: you can't just play your safety inside the box, can you.

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Speaker 1: And if you remember, there was a screen pass in

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Speaker 1: the first half when Stafford sees Adams lining up, he

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Speaker 1: audibles to the blitz. So Jamal Adams comes bum rushing in.

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Speaker 1: You just dump it to the over his head Henderson

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Speaker 1: on the screen pass and it goes for like twenty yards. Folks,

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Speaker 1: the Jets won that deal. And it's not even close

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Speaker 1: they get Seattle's first round picks. So yes, I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: be anti Seahawks this year. If the Jets can get

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Speaker 1: to top ten picks, you get one, you get the

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Speaker 1: cornerback out of L. S U. Stingley. Oh what I

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Speaker 1: love that Jets need a quarterback badly. I know L.

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Speaker 1: S U stinks this year. Uh, we knew that was

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Speaker 1: gonna happen. But and yeah, I knew that was gonna happen.

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Speaker 1: I said it on Cowhard Show when I picked U.

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Speaker 1: C l A two bat L s U in Week one.

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Speaker 1: So don't just I'm not just throwing that out there,

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Speaker 1: like we knew Ogeron was gonna be in trouble, and

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Speaker 1: it's not Stingley's fault. Stingley's a great, great cornerback. And

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Speaker 1: then I don't know what you do with that other pick.

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Speaker 1: I don't know that you need another playmaker. Probably go

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Speaker 1: offensive line, but let's see how the offensive line shakes

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Speaker 1: out when Beckton's back. But bottom line, the Jets are

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Speaker 1: sitting pretty thanks to the Jamal Adams trade, Seattle much

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Speaker 1: less pretty at two and three. A quick word on

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Speaker 1: the Rams. I didn't love what I saw from Stafford.

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Speaker 1: I'll say, I know he threw for three uh and

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Speaker 1: he reconnected with Robert Woods. And by the way, if

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Speaker 1: you follow me on Instagram, I gave out the Robert

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Speaker 1: Woods over receptions over five and a half, easiest money

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Speaker 1: I have won, probably in a few days. In a

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Speaker 1: few days he had over He had six receptions in

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Speaker 1: the first half, so over five and a half cashed easily.

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Speaker 1: Fourteen targets for Woods, big time winner. And I just

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Speaker 1: I didn't love the accuracy from Stafford on some passes

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Speaker 1: that mattered. Cooper Cup bailed him out of a couple

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Speaker 1: of times, and um, Stafford's gotta be better. I think

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Speaker 1: this is a super Bowl team. They did not look

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Speaker 1: super Bowl ish for much of that game. And now

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Speaker 1: they crossed the country to play the New York Football

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Speaker 1: Giants next week and a game that I will be

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Speaker 1: definitely So here's the here's the weird thing about gambling.

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Speaker 1: If the Giants show well against the Cowboys Sunday, the

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Speaker 1: number against the Rams will probably be lower because the

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Speaker 1: Rams didn't look particularly good. People will be like, hey,

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Speaker 1: the Giants are playing well. Look what they did to

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Speaker 1: the Saints, and then they hung tough with the with

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Speaker 1: the Cowboys, the Giants are good, and we know the

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Speaker 1: Giants stink at home, They're terrible at home. I think

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Speaker 1: Stafford and mcveighan just go pound town on the Giants

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Speaker 1: next week, so I will I will be looking back

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Speaker 1: the Rams the next couple of weeks. Then they faced

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Speaker 1: the Lions and the Texans. So I'm just telling you

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Speaker 1: right now, the l A Rams are about to get

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Speaker 1: hot at four and one faced if having faced playoff

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Speaker 1: teams from last year, and the Bears and the Bucks

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Speaker 1: and the Seahawks three of the first five, and the

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Speaker 1: Colts for their first five opponents. We're in the playoffs

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Speaker 1: last year. Now, I know things change and the Cults

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Speaker 1: aren't good and the Bears are that good, but Bucks

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Speaker 1: Cardinals are two tough opponents. If they beat the Giants, Lions,

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Speaker 1: Texans in their next three, they'll go to seven and

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Speaker 1: one and be right there with Arizona looking for home

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Speaker 1: home field advantage in the postseason. Because remember how valuable

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Speaker 1: that by is, guys, that is one hugely important thing

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Speaker 1: the bye this year, only one team gets it big time.

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Speaker 1: UM need to get that number one seed, and obviously

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Speaker 1: that matters with the Chiefs and Bills. Obviously this weekend.

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Speaker 1: Chiefs cannot lose that they'll be I think three games

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Speaker 1: back to two games back of the Bills, plus losing

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Speaker 1: the tiebreaker if they go down this weekend in the

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Speaker 1: race for home field advantage. Rob G, we haven't heard

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Speaker 1: much of me this week. You got the busy schedule.

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Speaker 1: You were at the stabathon at so far. No, I'm kidding.

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Speaker 1: I didn't even google to see if anybody got injured.

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Speaker 1: But UM, I don't know how was that was? How

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Speaker 1: was the night of football? If you know your Raiders lost?

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Speaker 1: It was great. It was like a you know, Raider's

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Speaker 1: home game, which is always nice. You know, a lot

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Speaker 1: of um drunk, excitable fans in the building, which was great. Um.

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Speaker 1: You know, I wish my team would have showed up

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Speaker 1: in the first half, but you know, what can you do? Um,

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Speaker 1: I will say, you know, I don't. I don't want

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Speaker 1: to get too deep into that just because my team lost,

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Speaker 1: So it's not it's fun to relive as as much

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Speaker 1: as people might think it is. I'm glad that you

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Speaker 1: made that point about Matthew Stafford because I was on

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Speaker 1: Twitter after the game last night and I saw a

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Speaker 1: lot of people sharing this nugget. Oh, you know, Matthew

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Speaker 1: Stafford through three sixty five yards. He's now at you know,

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Speaker 1: the fourth most passing yards by any player in his

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Speaker 1: first five games in it, within any team in NFL history.

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Speaker 1: You know, he's off to this historic start. Now, look,

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Speaker 1: I picked Matthew Stafford to win the m v P.

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Speaker 1: I have the Rams winning the Super Bowl, but Matthew

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Speaker 1: Stafford saved for the Bucks game. Has it really been

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Speaker 1: all that impressive to me? You know, the passages that

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Speaker 1: here was hitting last night were a lot of the

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Speaker 1: same ones that I saw Jared Goff hit, you know,

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Speaker 1: but his numbers got inflated because you know, the Seahawks

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Speaker 1: have the worst statistically defense, you know, on pace in

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Speaker 1: NFL history. Uh, he underthrew t Sean Jackson on that

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Speaker 1: big past that you talked about, where if he hits

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Speaker 1: him in stride, maybe that's a seventy five yard touchdown

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Speaker 1: as opposed to a sixty yard gang or whatever it was.

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Speaker 1: You know, Cooper Cups making no look catches. I don't

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Speaker 1: think I've ever seen that before. Um. You know, I

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Speaker 1: think that he's good and their team has been good,

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Speaker 1: and you mentioned they're they're on track to get to

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Speaker 1: seven and one, which would be great. But I haven't

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Speaker 1: been as impressed with Matthew Stafford as I had hoped

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Speaker 1: I would be. Can I challenge you on that? So

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Speaker 1: Tom Brady went to Tampa last year, and I think

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Speaker 1: his first five games, I know it was a little

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Speaker 1: different with the COVID situation. However, new offense, new coach,

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Speaker 1: it worked itself out. There were some hiccups in the

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Speaker 1: first two months. Do we give Matthew Stafford the same

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Speaker 1: pass that we kind of sort of gave Brady? Yeah?

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Speaker 1: I mean, like I said, I don't want to come

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Speaker 1: down on him, you know, because I said I picked

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Speaker 1: him to win m v P. So I'm happy that

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Speaker 1: he's having the scene that he's having. I just think

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Speaker 1: that the hyperbole has gone a little bit too far,

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Speaker 1: considering he was missing a lot of throws last night

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Speaker 1: and against Arizona he just wasn't good at all. So

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Speaker 1: I would like for that to be, you know, some

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Speaker 1: honesty when it comes to these guys. I like, don't

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Speaker 1: just look at the raw numbers and say, hey, he's

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Speaker 1: having this historically great start to the season when he's

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Speaker 1: really not. That's fair. And uh, I'm gonna give Matthew

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Speaker 1: Stafford the benefit of doubt because A I'm a Stafford fan.

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Speaker 1: B Because I have some Rims futures to this rule

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Speaker 1: and see their defense also needs some time to stort

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Speaker 1: itself out because this secondary outside of Ramsey has been suspect.

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Speaker 1: I know they lost two guys in free agency to

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Speaker 1: the Browns, but they'll get it together. And guess what

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Speaker 1: these next three games. I think Stafford gets back on

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Speaker 1: track and heads into Halloween a hot quarterback, and I

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Speaker 1: would not rule out I know right now it's like

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Speaker 1: a Dak mahomes Uh Kyler Josh Allen m v P

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Speaker 1: kind of race. And again it's early four weeks in

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Speaker 1: the books is a marathon on a sprint. Matt Stafford

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Speaker 1: will get back in that race over the next three weeks.

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Speaker 1: You marked those words, all right? Without further ado, Let's

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Speaker 1: get to our great guest today. He's at FanDuel Director

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Speaker 1: of Trading, John Sheeran. Fox Sports Radio has the best

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Speaker 1: sports talk lineup in the nation. Catch all of our

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Speaker 1: shows at Fox sports Radio dot com and within the

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Speaker 1: I Heart Radio app search f s R to listen live.

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Speaker 1: Jason likes to think he knows everything when it comes

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Speaker 1: to sports, I know what sports stands want, but for

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Speaker 1: everything he doesn't. He knows a guy who does. Let's

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Speaker 1: just say I know a guy who knows a guy

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Speaker 1: who knows another guy. All right, let's welcome into straight fire.

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Speaker 1: A guy who was on here last year. I did

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Speaker 1: a TV show with him. I don't know. It feels

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Speaker 1: like a long long time ago. I think it was

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Speaker 1: only like two or three years ago. John Sheer and

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Speaker 1: the director trading at FanDuel. He's a big deal. John.

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Speaker 1: How are you man? Very good? How are you? I

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Speaker 1: love having you on because obviously you bring you raised

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Speaker 1: the culture level here with the cool accent. Uh. And

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Speaker 1: obviously listen, you're looking at lines constantly. I'm assuming as

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Speaker 1: we record this on Thursday morning, you are watching the

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Speaker 1: screen to see if the huge bets come in for

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Speaker 1: this weekend's NFL games and true or false? Are you

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Speaker 1: adjusting lines as we're talking. We do the vast majority

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Speaker 1: of our discussion on a Wednesday evening. The reason we

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Speaker 1: do it on a Wednesday evening is because are a

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Speaker 1: couple of our NFL head traders are actually based in

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Speaker 1: Melbourne and Australia, so we do it at about six

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Speaker 1: pm Eastern on a on a Wednesy evening, and then

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Speaker 1: you'll see us kind of formulize our opinion in our lines,

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Speaker 1: where where we don't have an opinion, we'll stick with

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Speaker 1: the market, and where we do will be slightly off

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Speaker 1: kilter versus what the consensus line is. And gradually, I

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Speaker 1: think yeah, between there, as we learn more through either

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Speaker 1: injury reports on a Thursday or Friday, through bets that

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Speaker 1: we see from sharp betters or betters we respect, we

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Speaker 1: will find our lines constantly from there. I guess. So

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Speaker 1: you guys say, when you have an opinion on a game,

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Speaker 1: give us an example. Was anyone pounding the table this

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Speaker 1: week for a strong opinion on anything on the board,

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Speaker 1: whether it's maybe the Vikings who I like a ladder

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Speaker 1: or are going up, maybe the Texans I'm seeing money?

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Speaker 1: Was anybody pounding at the table opinion wise? I think

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Speaker 1: there's a couple that we're a decent bit off market

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Speaker 1: in terms of where our number was. I know that

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Speaker 1: Tennessee was one that we were six on the market

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Speaker 1: opened at three and a half. I think it's a

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Speaker 1: four and a half right now. We're pretty heavily juiced

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Speaker 1: at that number towards Tennessee just because we thought it

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Speaker 1: should be, you know, a decent bit higher than where

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Speaker 1: it opened. I know Jacksonville come off the ten day rest,

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Speaker 1: and we know the Tennessee have been super disappointing. But

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Speaker 1: Derrick Henry might go for a thousand yards in that game.

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Speaker 1: You know, we we we just we just thought that

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Speaker 1: was a little bit, a little bit off off market.

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Speaker 1: So we're aggressive on that one, trying to find another one.

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Speaker 1: I know there was another one we were looking at earlier.

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Speaker 1: I think San Francisco Arizona is the other one. We

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Speaker 1: only made that line three and a half, so we'll

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Speaker 1: be staying low on on the market on San Francisco.

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Speaker 1: Hard to believe that's all the way up to five

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Speaker 1: and a half. The sharp betters in the public I

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Speaker 1: like out there who like Arizona this season, Jason, I've

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Speaker 1: done really well and I've no doubt that some of

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Speaker 1: that is reinvestments, So pretty big move. They're just a

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Speaker 1: little bit high, and I know we've got probably Trailanes,

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Speaker 1: so he's a bit of a down grade for us.

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Speaker 1: And still could only get it to three and a

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Speaker 1: half from Jimmy g So it's hard to understand why

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Speaker 1: this game should be at five and a half for us. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: that that's interesting because that this is a game I

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Speaker 1: you know, I bet Arizona Sunday night as soon as

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Speaker 1: I saw some of this stuff come out, and you know,

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Speaker 1: I didn't expect it to go this high. But I mean, John,

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Speaker 1: we're talking about a guy with how many passes the

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Speaker 1: trail line throne like thirty in the NFL, and his

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Speaker 1: left tackle Trent Williams may not be there um against

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Speaker 1: I guess Chandler Jones and J J. Watt, But all

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Speaker 1: that is baked into the line. That's the thing everybody

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Speaker 1: loves to say. It's baked into the line. But how

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Speaker 1: why do you think these sharp betterers are hammering Arizona here? Um?

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Speaker 1: I don't really know. Like we lean heavily on our priors,

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Speaker 1: and maybe our priors haven't caught up with the Cardinals

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Speaker 1: progression this season. I think they've been in some pretty

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Speaker 1: good favorable spots, if I'm honest, I think some of

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Speaker 1: the defenses that they've come up against, maybe not as

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Speaker 1: challenge of San Francisco. Think matchup why San Francisco I

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Speaker 1: think held them to twelve or thirteen points last year

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Speaker 1: when they were arguably more hurt than they are now.

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Speaker 1: So I think schematically, coaching wise, I think San Francisco

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Speaker 1: can do a bit of a job in Arizona, and

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Speaker 1: I think Arizona won those teams when everything goes their way,

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Speaker 1: they look good, they put up a racket points, they

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Speaker 1: move the ball quickly, they run it well, and they

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Speaker 1: passed it well. And Kyler is obviously a demon on

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Speaker 1: us on a speed. So I think they can be

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Speaker 1: overly impressive sometimes. I think we saw the same with

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Speaker 1: them in spots last year, and then these bigger games

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Speaker 1: come around and they you know, they give away a

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Speaker 1: lot of offensive penalties. I think their number one penalized

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Speaker 1: offensive team in the league as well. So those sort

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Speaker 1: of things can hurt you when you're trying to drive

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Speaker 1: on a team like San Francisco. And so let's go

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Speaker 1: back to Tennessee. I am curious if what do you

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Speaker 1: guys make of the Urban Meyer stuff. I know it's silly,

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Speaker 1: it's nonsense. We don't really care about the video, we

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Speaker 1: don't care about him staying, but how do you approach

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Speaker 1: the whole Has he lost the team? Uh? Jacksonville staying

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Speaker 1: to their winless. This feels like their season on the

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Speaker 1: line here, they go to oh and five, it's over.

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Speaker 1: Some would already say it's over for them, John, but

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Speaker 1: I don't know. This division is really bad. A win here,

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Speaker 1: you know, a rally round the coach deal. Jacksonville is

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Speaker 1: firmly in the mix in this division, which is really awful. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think we've got Jacksonville had a lot

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Speaker 1: to play for, right Trevor Lawrence is a lot to

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Speaker 1: play for. He needs those reps, he needs, you know, progression.

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Speaker 1: I think we saw some of that from him last

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Speaker 1: week against Cincinnati. I thought he was better there. The

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Speaker 1: overall team, we're better. Yeah, they coughed it up when

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Speaker 1: they probably should have won the game. But I do

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Speaker 1: think that, you know, it's not a season to consign

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Speaker 1: to the bin just yet. I think the Arbe Meyers stuff,

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Speaker 1: from my perspective, Jason really something we can't pay any

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Speaker 1: attention to. I think it's a little reflective of maybe

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Speaker 1: how how what sort of a leader he is maybe

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Speaker 1: and how that player you know, impacts the team, and

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Speaker 1: what their opinion of it is. I think they are

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Speaker 1: all questions and ponderables that we'll never know the answer too.

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Speaker 1: So we're better off just sticking to the box, sticking

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Speaker 1: to our numbers, and I think the rest of that

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Speaker 1: stuff averages out over time when it comes to off

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Speaker 1: the field stuff that we just can never quantify. To

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Speaker 1: go back to the word priors, So Arizona last year,

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Speaker 1: in the first half of the season, with a healthy

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Speaker 1: Kyler was I believe seven and two or seven and

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Speaker 1: three leading the division. Then he had the injuries and

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Speaker 1: it was clearly wasn't the same. Dude, how do you

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Speaker 1: rectify the priors on Arizona from healthy Kyler good early

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Speaker 1: in the season too, not healthy in the second half

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Speaker 1: and obviously not remotely the same player, Plus the additions

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Speaker 1: they made in the off season to get some veteran

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Speaker 1: leadership in the locker room for a team that kind

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Speaker 1: of struggled in one score games with their coach. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I think that's fair. Um. I think Kyler Murray's injuries

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Speaker 1: hard to quantify. Again, we just never know how really

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Speaker 1: badly heart he was. Was that combination of you know,

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Speaker 1: the start that they had and more film around, you know,

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Speaker 1: allowing dcs to you know, come up with better plans

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Speaker 1: for how they managed to contain them. Um or was

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Speaker 1: he genuinely impacted so heavily due to the injury that

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Speaker 1: his performance left levels dropped significantly, And I think again

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Speaker 1: to go back to the earlier points was very, very

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Speaker 1: hard for us to know what exactly the truth is.

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Speaker 1: We look at the balance of performance overall, assessed that

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Speaker 1: on a week to week basis. Of course, we'll allow

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Speaker 1: for injury if we believe he was injured, and I

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Speaker 1: think there's no doubt in certain scenarios he really really was.

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Speaker 1: So I think that's all accounted for when we come

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Speaker 1: to our rating at the start of the season. For me,

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Speaker 1: somebody in the marketplace being a sharp better, A lot

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Speaker 1: of publics just seem to have the Cardinals rated higher

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Speaker 1: than you could ever have them rated at the start

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Speaker 1: of the season. This game probably was like to pick

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Speaker 1: him at the start of the year. And so five

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Speaker 1: and a half points for the performance levels of the

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Speaker 1: two teams, including Trail Lance, it seems like a lot

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Speaker 1: to us. Yeah, speaking of quarterbacks, what is the move

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Speaker 1: from Teddy Bridgewater out with a concussion likely out this

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Speaker 1: week to Drew Lock who looked pretty abysmal in the

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Speaker 1: second half against Baltimore last week and now he faces

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Speaker 1: a Pittsburgh defense that has a healthy DJ. What yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean we're looking at him trending out actually have

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Speaker 1: the game as Steelers is a one and a half

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Speaker 1: point favorite. So I think that there's no question with

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Speaker 1: Teddy in here. You're probably talking Denver's favorites. I think

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Speaker 1: maybe not by a lot to talking somewhere in the

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Speaker 1: realms that I would say probably two point drop off

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Speaker 1: for Teddy. I don't know that necessarily their ability deserves

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Speaker 1: that two points, but I think Bridgewater has done really well,

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Speaker 1: not here, but in previous organizations when he's come into

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Speaker 1: just you know, he's really really efficient and he runs

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Speaker 1: the offense in a smart way. I think he's reliable.

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Speaker 1: He's not flashy, He's never going to give you elite

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Speaker 1: quarterback play, but he's definitely very, very solid, and I

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Speaker 1: think Drew lock is a drop off from that somewhere

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Speaker 1: in the raalms to two points. Fox Sports Radio has

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00:19:58,520 --> 00:20:01,520
Speaker 1: the best sports talk lineup the nation. Catch all of

402
00:20:01,600 --> 00:20:05,080
Speaker 1: our shows at Fox sports radio dot com and within

403
00:20:05,160 --> 00:20:07,600
Speaker 1: the I Heart Radio app search f s R to

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Speaker 1: listen live. Sticking with Quarterbacks, John so the Baker Mayfield

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Speaker 1: stuff is interesting. He was pretty awful, right, No, No,

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Speaker 1: Jervis lanjury. He was awful, missed a lot of throws

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Speaker 1: against Minnesota. Then he goes on like Instagram and says

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Speaker 1: all this stuff, and now it comes out on Thursday

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Speaker 1: that oh, he has a non throwing shoulder labor from injury.

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Speaker 1: He's fine, He's gonna play. But John, any adjustments on

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Speaker 1: your end to the Baker Mayfield shoulder injury news. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I mean, Baker Mayfield hurt his shoulder two weeks ago.

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Speaker 1: We all saw it. He had to be carried off

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Speaker 1: and not carried off. He walked off his own power

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Speaker 1: and how to pop back in. So he said he

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Speaker 1: was fine. I remember hearing his speak as he came

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Speaker 1: back out on the sideline in the middle of that game,

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Speaker 1: And yeah, I think there's maybe some lack of understanding

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Speaker 1: the Baker Mayfield is really average quarterback in the NFL.

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Speaker 1: We've seen glimpses of them be very good. But from

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Speaker 1: my money, he's got really talented players around him, probably

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Speaker 1: on both sides of the ball. Okay, he's missing some

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Speaker 1: of his receivers this year with injury, and we haven't

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Speaker 1: seen no BJ back in full form yet. So for me,

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Speaker 1: you know he makes bad decisions when he's under pressure.

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00:21:18,320 --> 00:21:20,879
Speaker 1: Everybody knows that, he knows that. I think some of

427
00:21:20,920 --> 00:21:23,120
Speaker 1: the frustration has been born out by why you've seen

428
00:21:23,200 --> 00:21:26,080
Speaker 1: this seat this week. It doesn't move our numbers a lot.

429
00:21:26,160 --> 00:21:28,680
Speaker 1: We'll still have him as an average quarterback, and we'll

430
00:21:28,720 --> 00:21:31,840
Speaker 1: still have Cleveland rated where we have them rated. I think,

431
00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:34,200
Speaker 1: like you said, he'll play. I think he'll be proficient.

432
00:21:34,320 --> 00:21:38,680
Speaker 1: I think he'll be unimpacted by the injury. Um but

433
00:21:38,760 --> 00:21:40,680
Speaker 1: I don't trust them to make all the right decisions.

434
00:21:41,040 --> 00:21:44,280
Speaker 1: That said, we can't make this line anything other than

435
00:21:44,359 --> 00:21:46,520
Speaker 1: pick him. Pretty surprised by the move towards the Los

436
00:21:46,600 --> 00:21:49,280
Speaker 1: Angeles Chargers. I think that's a team that have faced

437
00:21:49,320 --> 00:21:51,679
Speaker 1: weak defenses, and now you come in against the Brands

438
00:21:52,280 --> 00:21:54,200
Speaker 1: d that has been pretty good and comes in in

439
00:21:54,280 --> 00:21:56,479
Speaker 1: good form. And I think if the Brands can move

440
00:21:56,560 --> 00:22:00,520
Speaker 1: the ball effectively, which you know in certain spots and drives,

441
00:22:00,640 --> 00:22:02,480
Speaker 1: Vegas could, and I don't see any reason why the

442
00:22:02,520 --> 00:22:05,040
Speaker 1: Browns can so for us. That's that's another one that

443
00:22:05,119 --> 00:22:08,280
Speaker 1: will be favor in Cleveland quite heavily. That's one of

444
00:22:08,359 --> 00:22:10,119
Speaker 1: those weird ones. If you I don't know how much

445
00:22:10,160 --> 00:22:12,320
Speaker 1: you value the football Outsiders d v O A. But

446
00:22:12,440 --> 00:22:15,399
Speaker 1: they have the Browns as number four overall and the

447
00:22:15,520 --> 00:22:18,960
Speaker 1: Chargers are down at fourteen. That's a pretty big disconnect,

448
00:22:19,000 --> 00:22:21,399
Speaker 1: and the public obviously gravitating towards Chargers, who they just

449
00:22:21,440 --> 00:22:23,960
Speaker 1: saw Monday. Now you take down the undefeated Raiders. But yeah,

450
00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:25,800
Speaker 1: I thought the Browns were the side here. But it

451
00:22:26,359 --> 00:22:29,359
Speaker 1: is this big professional money or just public money on

452
00:22:29,440 --> 00:22:32,240
Speaker 1: the Charger so far, I would say it was probably

453
00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:35,760
Speaker 1: kicked off by probably a sharp bed in the market.

454
00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:37,639
Speaker 1: We haven't seen a whole lot of sharp action on

455
00:22:37,680 --> 00:22:41,000
Speaker 1: the game ourselves, but in a game that opened minus

456
00:22:41,080 --> 00:22:42,840
Speaker 1: one and a half when we were zero before we

457
00:22:42,960 --> 00:22:45,320
Speaker 1: sat down and had our discussion, not a game we

458
00:22:45,400 --> 00:22:49,080
Speaker 1: wanted to necessarily have an opening opinion on, so um

459
00:22:49,240 --> 00:22:52,480
Speaker 1: I would say started off probably by a sharp move

460
00:22:53,000 --> 00:22:54,960
Speaker 1: move at a point half a point, and then I

461
00:22:55,040 --> 00:22:56,960
Speaker 1: think we've seen some public money on the Charges for

462
00:22:57,040 --> 00:22:59,760
Speaker 1: the reasons that you mentioned. Everybody's in love with just

463
00:22:59,880 --> 00:23:02,080
Speaker 1: a Herbert and there's no reason they shouldn't be. I

464
00:23:02,200 --> 00:23:03,959
Speaker 1: just don't think the charges are maybe as good as

465
00:23:04,040 --> 00:23:06,800
Speaker 1: recent performances indicate, and I don't think the brands are

466
00:23:06,800 --> 00:23:09,400
Speaker 1: as bad as they blot the last couple of weeks either, well,

467
00:23:09,800 --> 00:23:12,320
Speaker 1: I'd agree. Now, Um, I think you should the phrase

468
00:23:12,400 --> 00:23:15,520
Speaker 1: something along the lines of like being early to the

469
00:23:15,640 --> 00:23:19,040
Speaker 1: market on a move. Um, could you clarify that? And

470
00:23:19,800 --> 00:23:21,320
Speaker 1: you know, John, I think a lot of people out

471
00:23:21,320 --> 00:23:23,680
Speaker 1: there are wondering, like, what's the value for you guys

472
00:23:23,880 --> 00:23:28,880
Speaker 1: in being early on a market move? Um? Yeah, I look,

473
00:23:29,359 --> 00:23:32,520
Speaker 1: I think a so from our perspect that we go

474
00:23:32,640 --> 00:23:35,040
Speaker 1: up early, and when we go up early, you've less confidence,

475
00:23:35,040 --> 00:23:37,240
Speaker 1: and where the market is, it's less formed, there's less

476
00:23:37,920 --> 00:23:40,760
Speaker 1: liquidity gone through it. So for that reason, it's likely

477
00:23:40,840 --> 00:23:42,840
Speaker 1: to be a little bit more inefficient that the numbers

478
00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:45,280
Speaker 1: that are home. Our aim is to put the right

479
00:23:45,400 --> 00:23:47,560
Speaker 1: number as early as we can to every game. And

480
00:23:48,280 --> 00:23:51,280
Speaker 1: you know, if we believe that, for example, the Titans

481
00:23:51,359 --> 00:23:54,560
Speaker 1: are six point favors the market open three and a half,

482
00:23:54,640 --> 00:23:56,320
Speaker 1: it's already gone to four and a half, So we

483
00:23:56,359 --> 00:23:58,760
Speaker 1: would have been quick to move in that game, particularly

484
00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:00,440
Speaker 1: when we look at our numbers and say this game

485
00:24:00,520 --> 00:24:04,080
Speaker 1: says it's more like six. And then after Wednesday, you know,

486
00:24:04,160 --> 00:24:07,360
Speaker 1: we take our opinion and kind of confirm and get

487
00:24:07,400 --> 00:24:10,399
Speaker 1: everybody's alignment, and then we're more aggressive and how we

488
00:24:11,040 --> 00:24:13,679
Speaker 1: how we do that, but effectively, nobody likes to lay

489
00:24:13,720 --> 00:24:16,159
Speaker 1: about number. We want to be quick to We want

490
00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:18,360
Speaker 1: to be quick to make those moves and be aggressive

491
00:24:18,400 --> 00:24:22,200
Speaker 1: in our opinions. And uh, has there been a week

492
00:24:22,359 --> 00:24:24,320
Speaker 1: yet this year where you guys have kind of been

493
00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:27,000
Speaker 1: hurt versus cleaning up? And I know you don't want

494
00:24:27,040 --> 00:24:28,359
Speaker 1: to make it sound like, you know, the public is

495
00:24:28,400 --> 00:24:31,040
Speaker 1: losing their shirt here, but we are a little over

496
00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:33,879
Speaker 1: a quarter into the season. How has it gone for

497
00:24:33,960 --> 00:24:36,440
Speaker 1: you guys so far? Are you four? No each week

498
00:24:36,520 --> 00:24:38,680
Speaker 1: winning money? Or has there been any week you guys

499
00:24:38,720 --> 00:24:42,480
Speaker 1: are taking hits? Yeah, unfortunately, I'm here to report we're four.

500
00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:46,200
Speaker 1: I know it's been really good so far. You know,

501
00:24:46,280 --> 00:24:48,800
Speaker 1: I speak a lot. I'm not a fan of winning

502
00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:51,480
Speaker 1: at an aggressive rate in the NFL. I want people

503
00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:53,280
Speaker 1: to have a good experience and show we're all here

504
00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:56,040
Speaker 1: to make money money. But you know, I think products

505
00:24:56,080 --> 00:24:58,720
Speaker 1: like same getting prior that we have. I think, you know,

506
00:24:58,800 --> 00:25:01,000
Speaker 1: people who have a winning X experience with that early

507
00:25:01,080 --> 00:25:03,119
Speaker 1: on probably stick with it a lot longer than that

508
00:25:03,240 --> 00:25:05,600
Speaker 1: they have a losing one. And so far that's been

509
00:25:05,640 --> 00:25:09,040
Speaker 1: pretty tough. I think a couple of the initial primetime

510
00:25:09,119 --> 00:25:12,440
Speaker 1: games overs helped the public, but apart from that, it's

511
00:25:12,480 --> 00:25:14,800
Speaker 1: been pretty bad news. The dogs were strong last week,

512
00:25:14,880 --> 00:25:17,560
Speaker 1: as we all know, and seeing some money for the

513
00:25:17,640 --> 00:25:19,720
Speaker 1: likes of the Bengals this week as well as plus

514
00:25:19,800 --> 00:25:22,080
Speaker 1: three and a half in a spot where a lot

515
00:25:22,119 --> 00:25:24,840
Speaker 1: of people will obviously take Green Bay. They're the sort

516
00:25:24,880 --> 00:25:27,240
Speaker 1: of warning games I would have for people as well.

517
00:25:27,320 --> 00:25:29,520
Speaker 1: But yeah, it's been it's been a tough start for

518
00:25:29,560 --> 00:25:31,840
Speaker 1: the public, and you know, I hope hopefully they turn

519
00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:33,400
Speaker 1: around and I just to get a couple of winning

520
00:25:33,440 --> 00:25:36,359
Speaker 1: weeks and we get back to more balance. And I

521
00:25:36,480 --> 00:25:38,639
Speaker 1: asked that because I mean, and you don't have to

522
00:25:39,040 --> 00:25:41,879
Speaker 1: give me exact numbers, but have you seen handles slowly

523
00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:44,120
Speaker 1: drop off? Everybody in their mom is betting week one

524
00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:46,320
Speaker 1: and then you know, you lose a little bit on

525
00:25:46,400 --> 00:25:48,920
Speaker 1: week one, maybe you bet less on week two. Are

526
00:25:49,000 --> 00:25:52,960
Speaker 1: you seeing a stark decline from week one to last week?

527
00:25:54,119 --> 00:25:56,960
Speaker 1: Not necessarily a start, one of the things. We're very strong.

528
00:25:57,080 --> 00:25:58,920
Speaker 1: Week three was a little slower, and I kind of

529
00:25:58,960 --> 00:26:00,600
Speaker 1: put it down to that reason. And you're right, like

530
00:26:00,680 --> 00:26:03,639
Speaker 1: everybody's been waiting so long for football in week one

531
00:26:03,680 --> 00:26:05,800
Speaker 1: and two that you know, everybody and their dog is

532
00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:09,400
Speaker 1: wagering on it, um and then yeah, if you continue

533
00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:13,160
Speaker 1: to lose, you're obviously going to invest less. So people

534
00:26:13,680 --> 00:26:16,280
Speaker 1: are worried about it from that perspective, But you know,

535
00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:19,080
Speaker 1: football is strong. You've got a narrative that we had

536
00:26:19,200 --> 00:26:23,640
Speaker 1: last Monday night with Tom Brady and um come back

537
00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:26,159
Speaker 1: to New England. That was our highest turnover game of

538
00:26:26,240 --> 00:26:30,480
Speaker 1: the season. Obviously heavily lobsided towards Brady in the books,

539
00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:34,200
Speaker 1: So I think demands still there. We're not worried yet, Jason,

540
00:26:34,280 --> 00:26:36,400
Speaker 1: but I wouldn't mind the public having a winning week

541
00:26:36,480 --> 00:26:40,480
Speaker 1: and getting some money back in the ecosystem the whole.

542
00:26:40,640 --> 00:26:43,560
Speaker 1: We're not worried yet. It is funny because you're talking

543
00:26:43,600 --> 00:26:45,639
Speaker 1: about we need to lose, we need you guys to

544
00:26:45,760 --> 00:26:48,159
Speaker 1: win and do better, and and it's just tough to

545
00:26:48,400 --> 00:26:51,439
Speaker 1: to reconcile that. Like that's odd. But Um, it's interesting

546
00:26:51,520 --> 00:26:55,239
Speaker 1: you said the Brady Belichick split was massive. I had

547
00:26:55,280 --> 00:26:59,800
Speaker 1: seen some ridiculous numbers like we're on Brady. Um, I

548
00:27:00,000 --> 00:27:04,399
Speaker 1: am curious. Eight twenty historically has been an interesting split

549
00:27:04,480 --> 00:27:07,120
Speaker 1: when or more are on one side, go take the other.

550
00:27:07,640 --> 00:27:10,520
Speaker 1: How have those eight D twenty bins this season? And

551
00:27:10,600 --> 00:27:13,280
Speaker 1: have you seen a lot of them. Um, yeah, I

552
00:27:13,359 --> 00:27:16,240
Speaker 1: think there's obviously like what we generally see, Jason, is

553
00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:20,040
Speaker 1: the trend from top to bottom of good versus bad.

554
00:27:20,119 --> 00:27:22,600
Speaker 1: So the most happily bad teams are the are the

555
00:27:22,640 --> 00:27:25,800
Speaker 1: good teams in the least amount of bets are taken

556
00:27:25,840 --> 00:27:28,520
Speaker 1: on the bad teams. That's perfectly understandable. I get it.

557
00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:31,719
Speaker 1: It makes perfect sense. And when you get a matchup

558
00:27:31,760 --> 00:27:33,960
Speaker 1: of good and bad, public tend to just bet the

559
00:27:34,000 --> 00:27:37,680
Speaker 1: good team, regardless of necessarily being driven by what that

560
00:27:37,840 --> 00:27:42,080
Speaker 1: number is we see. You remember New England against Miami

561
00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:44,119
Speaker 1: two years ago to look ahead those minus twenty and

562
00:27:44,119 --> 00:27:46,200
Speaker 1: a half or something, and we were still seeing a

563
00:27:46,280 --> 00:27:48,600
Speaker 1: majority of bets at that number on New England to

564
00:27:48,680 --> 00:27:52,120
Speaker 1: cover when Brady was still there. So yeah, they're They're

565
00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:54,920
Speaker 1: not unusual. We have, We get them every week. There's

566
00:27:54,920 --> 00:27:56,960
Speaker 1: always a team there that's a big favorite. I think

567
00:27:57,440 --> 00:28:00,920
Speaker 1: Minnesota this week probably one where we'll be heavily bias

568
00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:03,679
Speaker 1: towards Minnesota. I think we've won enough of those battles

569
00:28:03,760 --> 00:28:05,800
Speaker 1: this season though, and to make sure that we're still

570
00:28:05,840 --> 00:28:09,960
Speaker 1: in front, like the overall position, geez uh, is anybody

571
00:28:10,040 --> 00:28:13,280
Speaker 1: betting the Houston Texans at this point, not really. I

572
00:28:13,359 --> 00:28:16,440
Speaker 1: mean the Houston Texans like we we turned every predominant,

573
00:28:16,520 --> 00:28:19,840
Speaker 1: Like I said, good bat anyway, and then um, particularly

574
00:28:20,200 --> 00:28:22,200
Speaker 1: a little bit of a bias towards our footprint on

575
00:28:22,280 --> 00:28:25,400
Speaker 1: the on the west coast, are East coast sorry, So um,

576
00:28:25,920 --> 00:28:29,400
Speaker 1: Houston down there in Texas not winning the very many

577
00:28:29,440 --> 00:28:32,600
Speaker 1: football games, not necessarily with a quarterback than anyone has

578
00:28:32,600 --> 00:28:35,440
Speaker 1: a whole lot of respect for in terms of ability. Yeah,

579
00:28:35,560 --> 00:28:38,760
Speaker 1: nobody's going to bet in Houston, Texans. So one of

580
00:28:38,800 --> 00:28:40,480
Speaker 1: the things I did last week, I had, you know,

581
00:28:40,560 --> 00:28:43,200
Speaker 1: probably my best weekend in about three years. I took

582
00:28:43,280 --> 00:28:46,760
Speaker 1: the teams that were garbage, the Jets, the Giants, Um,

583
00:28:47,000 --> 00:28:49,640
Speaker 1: I took Washington and then I you know, I took

584
00:28:49,720 --> 00:28:53,120
Speaker 1: Kansas City or whatever. But you know, all for four

585
00:28:53,160 --> 00:28:55,440
Speaker 1: of those teams that I bet had lost the week prior.

586
00:28:55,600 --> 00:28:58,600
Speaker 1: And again there's no like trend towards taking a team

587
00:28:58,640 --> 00:29:02,240
Speaker 1: off a loss. But I don't know, is there something

588
00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:06,200
Speaker 1: to the public just saw X dominate, They're going to

589
00:29:06,280 --> 00:29:10,560
Speaker 1: back them again, for instance Arizona, and by that idea

590
00:29:10,720 --> 00:29:14,160
Speaker 1: you should look closer at if anything avoiding Arizona. Does

591
00:29:14,240 --> 00:29:16,960
Speaker 1: that apply to a team like the Vikings who looked

592
00:29:17,080 --> 00:29:19,760
Speaker 1: awful last week seven points at home, nothing after the

593
00:29:19,800 --> 00:29:22,360
Speaker 1: first drive. Is the public really going to come in

594
00:29:22,480 --> 00:29:25,000
Speaker 1: on the Vikings against a team that like the Lion

595
00:29:25,040 --> 00:29:27,960
Speaker 1: who are fighting hard and covered in the opening week

596
00:29:28,400 --> 00:29:30,720
Speaker 1: if you had the right number definitely covered in the

597
00:29:30,760 --> 00:29:32,760
Speaker 1: first half against the Packers, and and and have kind

598
00:29:32,800 --> 00:29:36,000
Speaker 1: of been in the mix of some games. Um yeah.

599
00:29:36,040 --> 00:29:38,040
Speaker 1: I think it board comes down to the idea that

600
00:29:39,440 --> 00:29:44,120
Speaker 1: of short sample sizes in three or four weeks, people

601
00:29:44,200 --> 00:29:47,920
Speaker 1: tend to over estimate how good or bad teams are.

602
00:29:49,040 --> 00:29:50,760
Speaker 1: Like I said, that's the main reason we rely on

603
00:29:50,800 --> 00:29:52,800
Speaker 1: our priors, and I think as a result, you get

604
00:29:53,400 --> 00:29:56,560
Speaker 1: potentially some inflated numbers on some of the perceived worst

605
00:29:56,640 --> 00:30:00,280
Speaker 1: teams because nobody's betting them, number one, they're dessert in them.

606
00:30:00,360 --> 00:30:02,120
Speaker 1: They're all piling in on the other side, and you

607
00:30:02,200 --> 00:30:05,480
Speaker 1: can tend to find value, particularly early on, before we

608
00:30:05,560 --> 00:30:07,640
Speaker 1: build out the data set of what the capabilities are

609
00:30:07,680 --> 00:30:10,520
Speaker 1: the t of the teams are on those kind of

610
00:30:11,200 --> 00:30:13,400
Speaker 1: yuckie teams that nobody wants to bet on. I remember

611
00:30:13,480 --> 00:30:15,760
Speaker 1: Bett in Atlanta against Tampa Bay earlier in the year

612
00:30:15,800 --> 00:30:18,960
Speaker 1: for exactly that reason, and probably pretty unlucky not to

613
00:30:19,040 --> 00:30:21,600
Speaker 1: cover that spread that day as well. So yeah, I

614
00:30:21,640 --> 00:30:24,040
Speaker 1: think I think that's the reason for it, and I

615
00:30:24,200 --> 00:30:27,640
Speaker 1: wouldn't you know, I absolutely wouldn't put people off looking

616
00:30:27,720 --> 00:30:31,720
Speaker 1: at that as an angle, particular early on in the season. Yeah, alright,

617
00:30:31,760 --> 00:30:34,520
Speaker 1: So just two more teams. The New York Giants, who

618
00:30:35,120 --> 00:30:37,160
Speaker 1: have a bad quarterback and a bad coach but always

619
00:30:37,200 --> 00:30:40,600
Speaker 1: cover on the road, are taking money in Dallas, and

620
00:30:40,880 --> 00:30:43,280
Speaker 1: Dallas we know is a public team. They're talked about

621
00:30:43,280 --> 00:30:45,520
Speaker 1: on TV all the time. I think there might be

622
00:30:45,600 --> 00:30:49,120
Speaker 1: for now against his bread this year, and uh, the

623
00:30:49,200 --> 00:30:50,880
Speaker 1: big money is coming in on the Giants, I would

624
00:30:50,880 --> 00:30:53,440
Speaker 1: assume because the lines moving their way. What are you

625
00:30:53,520 --> 00:30:57,719
Speaker 1: seeing on that game from a public perspective, Yeah, I mean,

626
00:30:57,840 --> 00:30:59,920
Speaker 1: I'm not sure that the Giants have a back quarterback,

627
00:31:00,000 --> 00:31:02,560
Speaker 1: and I am a Giants fan. I think he needs

628
00:31:02,840 --> 00:31:04,400
Speaker 1: I think he's been really good in a couple of

629
00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:08,640
Speaker 1: games this season, and I like his poison, like his arm. Yeah,

630
00:31:08,680 --> 00:31:10,360
Speaker 1: he cops it up a little too often, but I

631
00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:13,920
Speaker 1: don't know that that's necessarily all on him. And this

632
00:31:14,080 --> 00:31:16,000
Speaker 1: has been a really bad matchup for the Lions the

633
00:31:16,120 --> 00:31:18,360
Speaker 1: last few years. Dallas have given them a pretty good

634
00:31:18,480 --> 00:31:21,280
Speaker 1: beating every time I've watched this game, and I don't

635
00:31:21,360 --> 00:31:24,080
Speaker 1: know that I expect a whole lot different this at

636
00:31:24,160 --> 00:31:26,440
Speaker 1: this time around. The offense for Dallas is really rolling.

637
00:31:26,480 --> 00:31:29,520
Speaker 1: There's an excellent all season long. Defensively, they're a little

638
00:31:29,600 --> 00:31:33,080
Speaker 1: week Trayvon Diggs is kind of master a little bit

639
00:31:33,120 --> 00:31:35,240
Speaker 1: of that. I'm sure he'll be hunting the ball against

640
00:31:35,280 --> 00:31:37,960
Speaker 1: the Giants again this week and may well very find

641
00:31:38,080 --> 00:31:42,280
Speaker 1: find himself catching another interception. The game has gone. We

642
00:31:42,400 --> 00:31:45,040
Speaker 1: were six, it opened seven and a half. I think

643
00:31:45,080 --> 00:31:48,840
Speaker 1: it's takedown to seven right now. I expect to see

644
00:31:48,840 --> 00:31:51,200
Speaker 1: the huge public demand for Dallas. I think offensively, the

645
00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:53,080
Speaker 1: number of points are putting up, the way they're playing

646
00:31:53,440 --> 00:31:55,800
Speaker 1: will be enough to ensure that we see all that

647
00:31:55,880 --> 00:31:59,000
Speaker 1: money for Dallas again. And John will wrap up with

648
00:31:59,120 --> 00:32:02,880
Speaker 1: the game of the week, probably the best matchup of

649
00:32:02,960 --> 00:32:06,520
Speaker 1: the early season for a f C supremacy, Bills and Chiefs.

650
00:32:07,160 --> 00:32:09,360
Speaker 1: I'm shocked people are coming in on the Bills here.

651
00:32:09,360 --> 00:32:10,960
Speaker 1: I I've seen some two and a half. Have you

652
00:32:11,000 --> 00:32:12,840
Speaker 1: guys going to do and half? I kind of sort

653
00:32:12,880 --> 00:32:16,640
Speaker 1: of love Kansas City here. Yeah, unfortunately, I agree with you.

654
00:32:17,040 --> 00:32:20,200
Speaker 1: We made this three point three in Kansas's favor, so

655
00:32:20,360 --> 00:32:23,600
Speaker 1: the other side of the field. Goal obviously significant. We'll

656
00:32:23,640 --> 00:32:25,480
Speaker 1: look to be bottom of the market, so the best

657
00:32:25,560 --> 00:32:28,120
Speaker 1: price we can be on Buffalo. I think we're pretty

658
00:32:28,160 --> 00:32:33,760
Speaker 1: heavily juiced on Kansas right now. UM. I like the Chiefs.

659
00:32:33,920 --> 00:32:36,120
Speaker 1: I think this is a big overreaction. They've had their

660
00:32:36,200 --> 00:32:38,320
Speaker 1: number the last couple of seasons. I think Spike Nola

661
00:32:38,400 --> 00:32:40,520
Speaker 1: does a good job coming up with defensive schemes and

662
00:32:40,600 --> 00:32:44,200
Speaker 1: these big games that maybe mask how week that secondary

663
00:32:44,360 --> 00:32:47,239
Speaker 1: really is. I think they've been really bad offense are

664
00:32:47,360 --> 00:32:49,880
Speaker 1: defensively the Chiefs this season. I think that's why you're

665
00:32:49,880 --> 00:32:54,000
Speaker 1: seeing Buffalo be the public side so far, or at

666
00:32:54,040 --> 00:32:55,600
Speaker 1: least see some of that money come in on them,

667
00:32:55,680 --> 00:32:58,640
Speaker 1: because you know, they put up some big points. Um,

668
00:32:59,040 --> 00:33:02,440
Speaker 1: and everybody's sees the susceptibility in the Chief's defense. So

669
00:33:02,800 --> 00:33:04,680
Speaker 1: I think I understand why the money's coming. I'm not

670
00:33:04,720 --> 00:33:07,080
Speaker 1: sure that I agree with it though. Yeah, and that

671
00:33:07,240 --> 00:33:08,960
Speaker 1: is the Sunday night game. And as you said, you

672
00:33:09,000 --> 00:33:12,480
Speaker 1: were loaded up on Belichick Brady last week, so we're

673
00:33:12,520 --> 00:33:14,560
Speaker 1: shaping up with another one where the public is all

674
00:33:14,640 --> 00:33:18,240
Speaker 1: over Buffalo Sunday Night football, hoping to close out teasers

675
00:33:18,880 --> 00:33:21,600
Speaker 1: chase game Sunday night. Um, I don't know, John, I

676
00:33:21,600 --> 00:33:23,200
Speaker 1: have a feeling you could go five and oh this

677
00:33:23,320 --> 00:33:27,760
Speaker 1: week after five five weeks in the NFL. Oh Man, Yeah,

678
00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:29,760
Speaker 1: there's a lot of games here. I thought this is

679
00:33:29,800 --> 00:33:32,200
Speaker 1: a tough slateh I think I highlighted the ones that

680
00:33:32,320 --> 00:33:34,840
Speaker 1: were of main interest to us. I think that's something

681
00:33:34,920 --> 00:33:38,080
Speaker 1: that game could come down to points, you know, really

682
00:33:38,160 --> 00:33:40,760
Speaker 1: really high totals. It went as high as fifty seven.

683
00:33:40,800 --> 00:33:42,440
Speaker 1: I think it's fifty six and a half right now.

684
00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:44,400
Speaker 1: You know, the public might be able to get a

685
00:33:44,480 --> 00:33:47,280
Speaker 1: lot of winning bets without necessarily having to get the

686
00:33:47,440 --> 00:33:51,800
Speaker 1: right side in the game. Yeah, alright, John, any final

687
00:33:51,840 --> 00:33:54,680
Speaker 1: words on on the overall gambling industry. I know you

688
00:33:54,800 --> 00:33:56,840
Speaker 1: are a titan. You're getting invited to all these big

689
00:33:56,880 --> 00:33:59,880
Speaker 1: shin digs hell, you might be running everything here is

690
00:34:00,040 --> 00:34:03,160
Speaker 1: peopling in America pretty shortly overall, though, Are you having

691
00:34:03,200 --> 00:34:04,720
Speaker 1: fun in America? I know you guys just got here

692
00:34:04,720 --> 00:34:07,200
Speaker 1: a few years ago. Yeah, I mean it's been awesome

693
00:34:07,280 --> 00:34:09,839
Speaker 1: so far. You know, three years down now, it's been

694
00:34:10,000 --> 00:34:13,680
Speaker 1: far bigger both from a business perspective and opportunity perspective

695
00:34:13,719 --> 00:34:15,920
Speaker 1: than I could have ever hoped for. And Yeah, I'm

696
00:34:15,960 --> 00:34:18,520
Speaker 1: just excited by where it goes. We continue to work

697
00:34:18,560 --> 00:34:20,759
Speaker 1: hard to make it better for everybody, and I think

698
00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:24,000
Speaker 1: that's a key part of our responsibility, not just customers,

699
00:34:24,080 --> 00:34:27,400
Speaker 1: but working with regulators and market access partners to make

700
00:34:27,440 --> 00:34:29,520
Speaker 1: sure that you know, we're the number one sports book

701
00:34:29,520 --> 00:34:32,120
Speaker 1: in the country. That's the fundamental goal. And like I said,

702
00:34:32,120 --> 00:34:33,560
Speaker 1: I think we've done a good job so far. We

703
00:34:33,600 --> 00:34:35,759
Speaker 1: have a lot of stuff to improve on, but yeah,

704
00:34:35,840 --> 00:34:38,160
Speaker 1: I'm just excited by US sports in general. I think

705
00:34:38,200 --> 00:34:41,040
Speaker 1: a part of that is is betting, and it's good

706
00:34:41,080 --> 00:34:43,279
Speaker 1: good that it's finally starting to roll out across the

707
00:34:43,320 --> 00:34:45,399
Speaker 1: country and hopefully we're in any Moore stays next year.

708
00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:49,359
Speaker 1: All right, John, Yeah, great stuff as usual. Good luck

709
00:34:50,000 --> 00:34:52,120
Speaker 1: this weekend to game or not to you obviously, and

710
00:34:52,200 --> 00:34:54,719
Speaker 1: I we'll talk to you to thank you. Jason appreciate it.

711
00:34:56,760 --> 00:34:59,560
Speaker 1: The only thing better than sitting on your couch watching

712
00:34:59,600 --> 00:35:03,840
Speaker 1: the game. He's making money while you do it. Here's

713
00:35:03,880 --> 00:35:08,839
Speaker 1: your best beat, great stuff from John Sheer and good guy,

714
00:35:09,560 --> 00:35:14,359
Speaker 1: intelligent guy, really actionable info and you'd love to see it. Um,

715
00:35:15,320 --> 00:35:17,279
Speaker 1: are you ready for my best bets? I will say,

716
00:35:17,320 --> 00:35:19,960
Speaker 1: without a doubt, I'm feeling better on NFL than college

717
00:35:20,000 --> 00:35:22,480
Speaker 1: this week. I gave out Cincinnati last week in college

718
00:35:22,840 --> 00:35:24,520
Speaker 1: and that was my easy winner. After that, I was

719
00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:27,759
Speaker 1: a little spotty. Ole Miss didn't really come through. The

720
00:35:27,920 --> 00:35:31,719
Speaker 1: Georgia under was an easy winner this week. It's I

721
00:35:32,000 --> 00:35:33,600
Speaker 1: feel like the slate is not as good and I'm

722
00:35:33,640 --> 00:35:36,919
Speaker 1: not as locked in. Also baseball postseason. Uh, your boys

723
00:35:36,960 --> 00:35:40,040
Speaker 1: in a soccer tournament? Yeah that's me. Uh. There's just

724
00:35:40,160 --> 00:35:42,799
Speaker 1: a lot going on this weekend. So the Saturday college

725
00:35:42,840 --> 00:35:45,600
Speaker 1: slate not being great helps. I did take a nibble

726
00:35:45,640 --> 00:35:49,840
Speaker 1: on Oklahoma. Uh, favored by three against Texas and the

727
00:35:49,960 --> 00:35:54,040
Speaker 1: red River let's just call it the Red River Game, shootout, showdown,

728
00:35:54,080 --> 00:35:56,880
Speaker 1: whatever you wanna call a rivalry. Oklahoma by three, but

729
00:35:56,920 --> 00:35:58,920
Speaker 1: I hate Oklahoma this year. They they can't beat anybody

730
00:35:58,960 --> 00:36:01,640
Speaker 1: owing four against the spread against FPS teams Like, I

731
00:36:01,719 --> 00:36:05,040
Speaker 1: don't love it. I just I could see Oklahoma finally

732
00:36:05,360 --> 00:36:07,720
Speaker 1: showing here. That is, so that's why I'm not taking Texas.

733
00:36:07,760 --> 00:36:10,120
Speaker 1: By the way, Texas defenses is bad, but I think

734
00:36:10,160 --> 00:36:12,399
Speaker 1: Stark is gonna have a chance to win this. So um,

735
00:36:13,239 --> 00:36:15,839
Speaker 1: I will take Oklahoma by three, but not confident at all.

736
00:36:16,120 --> 00:36:18,160
Speaker 1: I like Old Miss to bounce back against Arkansas. I

737
00:36:18,239 --> 00:36:20,680
Speaker 1: took Old Miss favored by six. I think my bet

738
00:36:20,719 --> 00:36:24,080
Speaker 1: of the weekend is probably Iowa favored by two against

739
00:36:24,120 --> 00:36:27,120
Speaker 1: Penn State. This Iowa team, I know a lot of

740
00:36:27,160 --> 00:36:30,399
Speaker 1: people think they're fraudulent because the offense just doesn't hasn't

741
00:36:30,440 --> 00:36:32,560
Speaker 1: done anything. But the offense hasn't had to do anything

742
00:36:32,560 --> 00:36:35,200
Speaker 1: because the defense is so damn good. Why would you

743
00:36:35,360 --> 00:36:37,879
Speaker 1: risk anything when your defense is just locking people down

744
00:36:37,960 --> 00:36:40,560
Speaker 1: and giving you great feel position. I like i Wa

745
00:36:40,600 --> 00:36:42,400
Speaker 1: favor by two against Penn State. I know, uh, some

746
00:36:42,520 --> 00:36:45,279
Speaker 1: Penn State folks back from my neck of the woods

747
00:36:45,320 --> 00:36:47,480
Speaker 1: and p A listening to the pod, shout out to

748
00:36:47,560 --> 00:36:52,040
Speaker 1: y'all Bucks County represent and uh, Penn State. They're good

749
00:36:52,120 --> 00:36:54,320
Speaker 1: this year, but they're not great. That went over Wisconsin

750
00:36:54,400 --> 00:36:57,560
Speaker 1: doesn't look that great. They went over Auburn's Like Auburn

751
00:36:58,440 --> 00:37:01,600
Speaker 1: I was actually played a tougher strength schedule, and I

752
00:37:01,920 --> 00:37:04,000
Speaker 1: took Iowa favor by two. That's my biggest bet of

753
00:37:04,040 --> 00:37:07,759
Speaker 1: the weekend in college football. This this one I don't love.

754
00:37:08,280 --> 00:37:10,399
Speaker 1: I took A and M getting seventeen and a half

755
00:37:10,440 --> 00:37:13,279
Speaker 1: against Bama. Another one I don't love. Jimbo Fisher just

756
00:37:13,440 --> 00:37:16,480
Speaker 1: such a phony in any big game dating back to

757
00:37:16,560 --> 00:37:18,799
Speaker 1: his f s U days. I mean, you could look

758
00:37:18,840 --> 00:37:21,719
Speaker 1: at that f SU titally ad with Jamis Winston. By

759
00:37:21,800 --> 00:37:25,160
Speaker 1: the way, the number that I recall is all twenty

760
00:37:25,239 --> 00:37:28,000
Speaker 1: two of the starters offensive defense had a couple of

761
00:37:28,000 --> 00:37:30,840
Speaker 1: coffee in the NFL. I think something ridiculous like eighteen

762
00:37:30,880 --> 00:37:34,520
Speaker 1: or nineteen were drafted, but every single offensive starter from

763
00:37:34,560 --> 00:37:38,560
Speaker 1: that one team had some sort of play in the NFL.

764
00:37:38,640 --> 00:37:41,120
Speaker 1: Something might have been practice squad called up, but that

765
00:37:41,239 --> 00:37:43,279
Speaker 1: team was so stacked, and outside of that, Jim was

766
00:37:43,280 --> 00:37:45,160
Speaker 1: always lost of big games. I do think he covers

767
00:37:45,160 --> 00:37:48,920
Speaker 1: against Saban here Um at home in College Station should

768
00:37:48,920 --> 00:37:50,440
Speaker 1: be a good scene. And the last one is Um

769
00:37:50,680 --> 00:37:55,640
Speaker 1: reluctantly Georgia by sixteen, Favorite by sixteen at Auburn. Yikes.

770
00:37:55,719 --> 00:37:57,920
Speaker 1: So that's not a great slate. Let's get to the

771
00:37:58,040 --> 00:38:02,920
Speaker 1: NFL again. Last weekend was probably my best gambling weekend

772
00:38:02,960 --> 00:38:05,080
Speaker 1: in the NFL in three years, four and one in

773
00:38:05,160 --> 00:38:07,080
Speaker 1: the four million dollar contest, So I'm kind of back

774
00:38:07,120 --> 00:38:10,160
Speaker 1: in that this one is a tougher slate. Now, one

775
00:38:10,200 --> 00:38:11,759
Speaker 1: thing I'm gonna say, and well, if you listen to

776
00:38:11,920 --> 00:38:14,560
Speaker 1: the interview with Sharon and the other guys earlier this week.

777
00:38:15,520 --> 00:38:19,480
Speaker 1: There is some value in taking teams off losses, obviously,

778
00:38:19,840 --> 00:38:23,000
Speaker 1: because nobody wants to bet them. The public remembers what

779
00:38:23,080 --> 00:38:26,760
Speaker 1: they just last saw, so they're gonna gravitate towards the Chargers.

780
00:38:26,800 --> 00:38:29,160
Speaker 1: Looked awesome on Monday Night football. I'm gonna take the

781
00:38:29,239 --> 00:38:31,839
Speaker 1: Chargers out. How are they only favored by two over

782
00:38:31,880 --> 00:38:34,520
Speaker 1: the Browns. I'm not gonna. I would give out the

783
00:38:34,560 --> 00:38:36,880
Speaker 1: Browns a little down the list. I'm a little bit

784
00:38:37,000 --> 00:38:39,560
Speaker 1: off them. It seems like a lot of money. I

785
00:38:39,640 --> 00:38:42,440
Speaker 1: respect people like that. You know, I see on social

786
00:38:42,480 --> 00:38:45,040
Speaker 1: media who I'm like, Oh, they have good insight and takes.

787
00:38:45,239 --> 00:38:47,520
Speaker 1: They like the Charges. I leaned towards the Browns here

788
00:38:47,520 --> 00:38:51,160
Speaker 1: getting too. I love them in a teaser leg and

789
00:38:51,760 --> 00:38:53,719
Speaker 1: you know you take that up to nine through three

790
00:38:53,760 --> 00:38:56,560
Speaker 1: and seven. That's that feels good the Chargers. As much

791
00:38:56,600 --> 00:39:01,040
Speaker 1: as we love the Chargers, let's remember Ruggle to Barely

792
00:39:01,120 --> 00:39:07,040
Speaker 1: be Washington and the Opener lost to the Cowboys. You know,

793
00:39:07,239 --> 00:39:10,680
Speaker 1: they look good against the Raiders, but again, the Raiders

794
00:39:10,760 --> 00:39:12,640
Speaker 1: that I know, they were three and O. I don't know.

795
00:39:12,719 --> 00:39:14,359
Speaker 1: I took the Browns getting too, but it's not it's

796
00:39:14,360 --> 00:39:16,040
Speaker 1: not one of my best my I would say my

797
00:39:16,200 --> 00:39:19,160
Speaker 1: three best biggest bets are the Vikings. I got it

798
00:39:19,239 --> 00:39:22,080
Speaker 1: at eight, eight and a half, and nine, and now

799
00:39:22,160 --> 00:39:24,560
Speaker 1: it's touching ten this morning, which is a little scary

800
00:39:24,920 --> 00:39:28,960
Speaker 1: divisional matchup. Just check the Lions injury report, Penney Sewell,

801
00:39:29,080 --> 00:39:32,320
Speaker 1: the rookie may not even be able to play this weekend.

802
00:39:32,360 --> 00:39:34,399
Speaker 1: I know you're thinking, oh, he's not that great. Their

803
00:39:34,600 --> 00:39:37,800
Speaker 1: center and their other tackler out, so they could be

804
00:39:37,840 --> 00:39:41,880
Speaker 1: down three starting offensive lineman against the Vikings team coming

805
00:39:41,920 --> 00:39:45,600
Speaker 1: off a loss. With Anthony Barr coming back off the edge,

806
00:39:46,440 --> 00:39:49,359
Speaker 1: I think Minnesota kind of opens up a can here

807
00:39:49,440 --> 00:39:52,920
Speaker 1: on a Lions team. Remember what is GoF? Not like pressure?

808
00:39:53,600 --> 00:39:56,600
Speaker 1: Three offensive lineman down, He's gonna be filled the pressure.

809
00:39:56,640 --> 00:40:00,319
Speaker 1: I would assume that Minnesota moved the ball easily. Of course,

810
00:40:00,360 --> 00:40:02,360
Speaker 1: when you're at ten, there's always a chance for a

811
00:40:02,360 --> 00:40:05,680
Speaker 1: backdoor cover, which is scary, especially in individual matchup. But

812
00:40:05,800 --> 00:40:08,520
Speaker 1: a good number for you. Mike Zimmer thirty two and

813
00:40:08,680 --> 00:40:12,280
Speaker 1: fifteen against the spread, awful loss in his career. Crunch

814
00:40:12,320 --> 00:40:14,879
Speaker 1: the numbers, that's pretty good. I'm not a trend guy,

815
00:40:14,960 --> 00:40:17,880
Speaker 1: just I toss out some trends because they're interesting. So Minnesota.

816
00:40:18,000 --> 00:40:21,840
Speaker 1: I like a lot folks. You just heard shearing, Okay,

817
00:40:22,640 --> 00:40:24,799
Speaker 1: I don't see how you can't met Kansas City at

818
00:40:24,840 --> 00:40:27,120
Speaker 1: two and a half. You have to take Kansas City

819
00:40:27,160 --> 00:40:29,239
Speaker 1: at two and a half less than a field goal

820
00:40:29,320 --> 00:40:33,879
Speaker 1: at home with Mahomes with read against a Buffalo team,

821
00:40:33,920 --> 00:40:35,920
Speaker 1: and I and I jotted down the quarterbacks that Buffalo

822
00:40:35,960 --> 00:40:37,480
Speaker 1: Bills and face. I know they have two shutouts. They

823
00:40:37,480 --> 00:40:43,000
Speaker 1: look great. They faced a wash Ben Roethlisberger, Jacoby Brissette,

824
00:40:43,040 --> 00:40:45,000
Speaker 1: remember he came in for the injured too like in

825
00:40:45,200 --> 00:40:48,399
Speaker 1: one or two series. Taylor Heinik in his first career

826
00:40:48,480 --> 00:40:52,400
Speaker 1: road start, and Davis Mills, who is a rookie in

827
00:40:52,480 --> 00:40:57,120
Speaker 1: his first road start. You face those guys, you feel confident.

828
00:40:57,239 --> 00:41:00,480
Speaker 1: Now you're facing Patrick Mahomes. I don't alway if Josh

829
00:41:00,520 --> 00:41:02,879
Speaker 1: Gordon's gonna suit up. There's some chatter he may play.

830
00:41:03,680 --> 00:41:06,759
Speaker 1: But again, Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelsey, these guys murdered the

831
00:41:06,800 --> 00:41:09,399
Speaker 1: Bills in the a f C title game. I don't

832
00:41:09,440 --> 00:41:12,920
Speaker 1: know what changes. The Bills haven't done anything dramatically different.

833
00:41:12,960 --> 00:41:15,000
Speaker 1: These are mostly the same squads. I know the Chiefs

834
00:41:15,320 --> 00:41:18,080
Speaker 1: O L is a little different than it was in

835
00:41:18,120 --> 00:41:20,200
Speaker 1: the A f C Title game when it was injured,

836
00:41:21,200 --> 00:41:24,000
Speaker 1: and the Buffalo defensive lines a little bit better, but

837
00:41:25,200 --> 00:41:26,880
Speaker 1: I've got to take the homes here and at two

838
00:41:26,880 --> 00:41:29,600
Speaker 1: and a half, I just love it. I absolutely love it.

839
00:41:29,640 --> 00:41:33,960
Speaker 1: So the Chiefs, the Vikings and the third one. This

840
00:41:34,120 --> 00:41:39,080
Speaker 1: pains me to say Cincinnati Bengals. And I got a buddy,

841
00:41:39,200 --> 00:41:42,480
Speaker 1: another guy back from Pennsylvania who is a huge Bengals fan,

842
00:41:42,800 --> 00:41:45,080
Speaker 1: and he always is messaging me, uh in the d

843
00:41:45,280 --> 00:41:47,640
Speaker 1: M s on the Graham about oh, come on, Jay,

844
00:41:47,680 --> 00:41:49,279
Speaker 1: you know the Bengals are gonna let down. You know

845
00:41:49,400 --> 00:41:53,919
Speaker 1: it's coming, and yeah, I know what historically last twenty years,

846
00:41:53,960 --> 00:41:56,600
Speaker 1: that's what they do. But I just look at the

847
00:41:56,640 --> 00:41:59,200
Speaker 1: matchups and I see no Ji Year Alexander for the Packers.

848
00:42:00,080 --> 00:42:04,360
Speaker 1: If he doesn't play, you're looking at who the rookie

849
00:42:04,440 --> 00:42:08,719
Speaker 1: starting on the outside, and Kevin King the human turnstile

850
00:42:09,239 --> 00:42:12,520
Speaker 1: at the other cornerback Jim mar Chase, Tyler Boyd. I

851
00:42:12,560 --> 00:42:13,880
Speaker 1: don't know if Higgins is gonna be a go. I

852
00:42:13,920 --> 00:42:16,480
Speaker 1: don't know that it matters. I can see the Bengals

853
00:42:16,560 --> 00:42:18,200
Speaker 1: just keeping up all day and I know Mix and

854
00:42:18,280 --> 00:42:20,680
Speaker 1: may not play, that's fine, But we're talking about a

855
00:42:20,719 --> 00:42:23,160
Speaker 1: Packers team that's struggling without one of the Smith brothers

856
00:42:23,200 --> 00:42:26,840
Speaker 1: in the pass rush. Everything I look at here for

857
00:42:26,960 --> 00:42:28,759
Speaker 1: the Bengal says they're gonna score. So you know I

858
00:42:28,800 --> 00:42:31,160
Speaker 1: gave out the over earlier this week. The Green Bay

859
00:42:31,239 --> 00:42:33,440
Speaker 1: defense is so desperate. I think they went and signed

860
00:42:33,480 --> 00:42:36,600
Speaker 1: Jhalen Smith from the Cowboys, who they just dropped. And

861
00:42:36,760 --> 00:42:40,440
Speaker 1: just one reminder about this overrated Packers defense. Heroes the quarterbacks.

862
00:42:40,480 --> 00:42:43,840
Speaker 1: They faced Jamis Winston in in that game where he

863
00:42:43,920 --> 00:42:45,560
Speaker 1: didn't have to do anything, but he still had I

864
00:42:45,640 --> 00:42:48,040
Speaker 1: think five tv s in a hundred forty eight yards passing.

865
00:42:48,600 --> 00:42:52,360
Speaker 1: Then they faced Jared Goff, they faced Jimmy Garoppolo, and

866
00:42:52,440 --> 00:42:56,840
Speaker 1: they faced Ben Roethlisberger. Like, Hello, Joe Burrow. I know

867
00:42:56,920 --> 00:42:58,600
Speaker 1: you guys might not want to hear Joe Burrows already

868
00:42:58,640 --> 00:43:01,239
Speaker 1: better than all those guys. And if you want to

869
00:43:01,280 --> 00:43:03,360
Speaker 1: doubt me and say, Jason, you're crazy, I can't believe this.

870
00:43:05,040 --> 00:43:06,719
Speaker 1: What metrics would you like to use? Oh, let's go

871
00:43:06,760 --> 00:43:08,719
Speaker 1: to Pro Football Focus again. Not the end all be

872
00:43:08,800 --> 00:43:14,919
Speaker 1: all Goff, Garoppolo, Roethlisberger, Jamis none have graded out among

873
00:43:14,960 --> 00:43:17,640
Speaker 1: the top twenty five according to Pro Football Focus. Joe

874
00:43:17,680 --> 00:43:20,840
Speaker 1: Burrow is six, and again we could say, well, Burrow

875
00:43:20,880 --> 00:43:22,440
Speaker 1: has it looked good? Let me do it? Gets the

876
00:43:22,480 --> 00:43:26,280
Speaker 1: jag to the first half? Okay, fair, fair enough? Where

877
00:43:26,360 --> 00:43:29,040
Speaker 1: was Burrow on the road in Chicago? What do you do? Okay,

878
00:43:29,160 --> 00:43:34,280
Speaker 1: that's fine. Green Bay has a poor defense. Joe Burrow

879
00:43:34,400 --> 00:43:36,840
Speaker 1: is going to like them up at again. No JayR Alexander,

880
00:43:37,800 --> 00:43:40,800
Speaker 1: I I like him to King Tough. It probably feels

881
00:43:40,800 --> 00:43:43,319
Speaker 1: like a tie game a minute left, Aaron Rodgers gets

882
00:43:43,320 --> 00:43:44,799
Speaker 1: the ball and goes down and wins it. Right, that's

883
00:43:44,920 --> 00:43:48,080
Speaker 1: probably what happens. But if you can find a three

884
00:43:48,120 --> 00:43:49,520
Speaker 1: and a half out there in the market, you gotta

885
00:43:49,560 --> 00:43:51,920
Speaker 1: grab it now. You might not be able to find

886
00:43:52,000 --> 00:43:54,080
Speaker 1: with this point. So much professional money has got it

887
00:43:54,120 --> 00:43:55,360
Speaker 1: at three, and you may even see it two and

888
00:43:55,400 --> 00:43:58,560
Speaker 1: a half. I am on the Bengals. Listen, I bet

889
00:43:58,640 --> 00:44:00,440
Speaker 1: it earlier in the week. I'm probably gonna in contest.

890
00:44:00,480 --> 00:44:03,360
Speaker 1: It's only three. I would say the Bengals are my

891
00:44:03,440 --> 00:44:06,880
Speaker 1: third favorite choice. They get to vote narrowly, and this

892
00:44:07,000 --> 00:44:10,279
Speaker 1: one may surprise you over the New Orleans Saints. Yes,

893
00:44:11,200 --> 00:44:14,319
Speaker 1: I'm finally betting on them. I've faded them multiple times

894
00:44:14,360 --> 00:44:16,200
Speaker 1: this year. I I do not like the Saints this year,

895
00:44:16,760 --> 00:44:19,680
Speaker 1: it's more of a play against Washington And and you know,

896
00:44:19,760 --> 00:44:23,400
Speaker 1: I got our number here that Sean Payton, you know,

897
00:44:24,040 --> 00:44:25,759
Speaker 1: really really good coach. I don't know if he's one

898
00:44:25,760 --> 00:44:28,359
Speaker 1: of the best coaches in the league. Without Drew Brees,

899
00:44:28,400 --> 00:44:29,920
Speaker 1: he still got something to prove. Right, you lose all

900
00:44:29,920 --> 00:44:32,839
Speaker 1: the Fame quarterback, what can you do that? Being said,

901
00:44:33,160 --> 00:44:36,680
Speaker 1: Sean Payton really delivers off of a loss, sixteen and

902
00:44:36,800 --> 00:44:41,080
Speaker 1: six last five years against the spread after a loss. Now,

903
00:44:41,160 --> 00:44:44,279
Speaker 1: how many of those are with Teddy Bridgewater? How many

904
00:44:44,360 --> 00:44:47,360
Speaker 1: are with Jameis Winston, How many are with Drew Brees

905
00:44:47,400 --> 00:44:49,759
Speaker 1: the Hall of Famer. We'd have to drill down further.

906
00:44:49,840 --> 00:44:52,799
Speaker 1: But bottom line is Peyton is a really damn good coach.

907
00:44:52,880 --> 00:44:55,320
Speaker 1: And if you remember, they went to New England this

908
00:44:55,480 --> 00:44:58,920
Speaker 1: year off of a loss and beat Belichick head to head,

909
00:44:59,440 --> 00:45:01,680
Speaker 1: mostly with the defense. I know, facing a rookie quarterback.

910
00:45:01,760 --> 00:45:05,040
Speaker 1: But what Taylor Heineke is awesome because he came back

911
00:45:05,080 --> 00:45:07,040
Speaker 1: to beat the Falcons in a luck box win for

912
00:45:07,120 --> 00:45:10,160
Speaker 1: me last week, Like I I Taylor Heinecke's fun. I

913
00:45:10,239 --> 00:45:12,840
Speaker 1: joked that he's Matt Saracen QB one from Friday nightlights.

914
00:45:13,440 --> 00:45:17,480
Speaker 1: But the reality is Taylor Heinekey is like okay at best.

915
00:45:18,360 --> 00:45:21,960
Speaker 1: I mean, is he like Ryan Fitzpatrick light, you know,

916
00:45:22,080 --> 00:45:24,080
Speaker 1: when there's no pressure at all? Yeah, he can deliver

917
00:45:24,520 --> 00:45:26,680
Speaker 1: in a big spot. Taylor Heinecke ain't getting it done,

918
00:45:27,080 --> 00:45:29,839
Speaker 1: and I would anticipate in New Orleans defense that got

919
00:45:30,040 --> 00:45:33,480
Speaker 1: reamed out in the film room this week after Danny

920
00:45:33,560 --> 00:45:37,040
Speaker 1: Dimes beat him on two fifty yard touchdown passes. Does

921
00:45:37,080 --> 00:45:42,080
Speaker 1: Washington have the playmakers for that? I don't quite think J. D. Mckissic,

922
00:45:42,239 --> 00:45:44,680
Speaker 1: who can scoot, is on the same level of say

923
00:45:44,719 --> 00:45:48,560
Speaker 1: Kuon Barkley, Kenny Golladay. Actually, Terry mclord is really good.

924
00:45:48,920 --> 00:45:51,480
Speaker 1: Terry Clord's good, and my my son has him on

925
00:45:51,520 --> 00:45:54,560
Speaker 1: his fantasy team. Washington's good. I just if I'm getting

926
00:45:54,880 --> 00:45:57,440
Speaker 1: the Saints at two on the road, I don't think

927
00:45:57,480 --> 00:45:59,960
Speaker 1: there's really a home court of home field advantage for Washington,

928
00:46:00,400 --> 00:46:03,120
Speaker 1: So yeah, I've got to ride New Orleans there. Um

929
00:46:03,719 --> 00:46:06,480
Speaker 1: after that though, it's slim pickings. Uh. Just look at

930
00:46:06,600 --> 00:46:09,600
Speaker 1: some of these lines, like I love the Panthers, but

931
00:46:10,120 --> 00:46:13,719
Speaker 1: a lot of money coming in on the Eagles. It's like,

932
00:46:14,560 --> 00:46:16,719
Speaker 1: I don't think that's public money. That's that's real money.

933
00:46:17,400 --> 00:46:21,040
Speaker 1: I'm looking at the Tennessee Titans. You know, I have

934
00:46:21,160 --> 00:46:24,480
Speaker 1: a love hate relationship mostly hate with that team, and

935
00:46:24,840 --> 00:46:27,960
Speaker 1: I can't It's tough for me to pull the trigger

936
00:46:28,000 --> 00:46:30,239
Speaker 1: on them if there's no Brown or Julio Jones, and

937
00:46:30,360 --> 00:46:32,400
Speaker 1: you guys know I talked about it. I think Jacksonville's

938
00:46:32,440 --> 00:46:36,560
Speaker 1: live this week, so I can't really go to Tennessee. Yeah,

939
00:46:37,280 --> 00:46:40,600
Speaker 1: the real tough one is Chicago Bears, because I looked

940
00:46:40,640 --> 00:46:44,000
Speaker 1: at that injury report yesterday. No a Key Hicks, no

941
00:46:44,160 --> 00:46:46,680
Speaker 1: Khalil Mack. If they're not playing, do you have to

942
00:46:46,760 --> 00:46:49,080
Speaker 1: take the Raiders? But at the same time, should the

943
00:46:49,160 --> 00:46:51,120
Speaker 1: Raiders be favored by five and a half over anybody?

944
00:46:52,400 --> 00:46:55,480
Speaker 1: They beat the Ravens as an underdog, They beat the

945
00:46:55,520 --> 00:46:59,279
Speaker 1: Steelers as an underdog. They who they beat in their

946
00:46:59,360 --> 00:47:04,640
Speaker 1: third game? I don't remember. Oh, they beat Miami as

947
00:47:04,680 --> 00:47:07,160
Speaker 1: a favorite but did not cover. So I can see

948
00:47:07,239 --> 00:47:10,520
Speaker 1: the Raiders just dicking around, screwing around, and you know,

949
00:47:10,640 --> 00:47:13,799
Speaker 1: basically fumbling this and not covering the spread. So it's

950
00:47:13,840 --> 00:47:16,640
Speaker 1: a big number. I'm a little reluctant to fire on that.

951
00:47:16,960 --> 00:47:19,400
Speaker 1: I like Dallas a lot. That's probably gonna end up

952
00:47:19,400 --> 00:47:22,240
Speaker 1: as a play. It's just too many people on the giants,

953
00:47:22,280 --> 00:47:23,919
Speaker 1: too many squares, too many people like, oh, you gotta

954
00:47:23,960 --> 00:47:27,120
Speaker 1: take the giants on the road. Like if everybody's talking

955
00:47:27,200 --> 00:47:31,560
Speaker 1: about a dog, then it's probably a public dog and

956
00:47:31,600 --> 00:47:35,239
Speaker 1: you want to avoid them. Like, just too many people

957
00:47:35,280 --> 00:47:37,400
Speaker 1: saying all the giants stuff, Danny Dimes on the road.

958
00:47:37,440 --> 00:47:40,200
Speaker 1: Like we we were talking about this weeks ago, Danny

959
00:47:40,280 --> 00:47:42,480
Speaker 1: Dimes on the road right last week, we were all

960
00:47:42,560 --> 00:47:44,600
Speaker 1: over it. Now everybody else is on it. You kind

961
00:47:44,600 --> 00:47:46,759
Speaker 1: of gotta jump off, So I don't know, guys, those

962
00:47:46,800 --> 00:47:48,560
Speaker 1: are some of my best bets here in the NFL.

963
00:47:49,120 --> 00:47:53,080
Speaker 1: I if you're looking at teasers, New England Patriots and

964
00:47:53,160 --> 00:47:57,399
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay Buccaneers under three along with the vikings, which

965
00:47:57,440 --> 00:48:00,239
Speaker 1: one of those guys is losing outright or almost using

966
00:48:00,360 --> 00:48:04,680
Speaker 1: altogether vikings at home. Patriots on the road can be risky.

967
00:48:04,760 --> 00:48:06,880
Speaker 1: Like a rookie quarterback favored by eight or nine on

968
00:48:06,960 --> 00:48:11,880
Speaker 1: the road, that's insanity to me. But Belichick against a

969
00:48:11,960 --> 00:48:16,160
Speaker 1: rookie quarterback, I cannot see them losing that. And then

970
00:48:16,239 --> 00:48:19,879
Speaker 1: Miami Tampa is interesting because I almost talked myself into

971
00:48:20,080 --> 00:48:23,320
Speaker 1: Miami getting ten. If you look at the Buck's injury report,

972
00:48:23,400 --> 00:48:27,640
Speaker 1: like their entire starting secondaries out. It's crazy. Every starter,

973
00:48:28,960 --> 00:48:32,080
Speaker 1: including Winfield from week one in the secondary looks like

974
00:48:32,080 --> 00:48:34,160
Speaker 1: they're not gonna play this week. And like, I know

975
00:48:34,280 --> 00:48:38,960
Speaker 1: you could Joe be Jacoby Present take advantage of Kenny.

976
00:48:39,320 --> 00:48:42,440
Speaker 1: I don't. I'm not so sure he can. Jacob. We're

977
00:48:42,440 --> 00:48:44,840
Speaker 1: talking about Jacoby Brissette and if the passports gets to

978
00:48:44,880 --> 00:48:47,879
Speaker 1: it in Miami's offensive line's body, you know, this could

979
00:48:47,920 --> 00:48:50,239
Speaker 1: be another blood bath like when the Buffalo Bills went

980
00:48:50,280 --> 00:48:53,920
Speaker 1: in or Buffalo Bills went into Miami. And it's like

981
00:48:54,000 --> 00:48:58,200
Speaker 1: Jacoby Brissette, like, you can handle the Oakland Raiders, sorry,

982
00:48:58,320 --> 00:49:01,120
Speaker 1: Las Vegas Raiders one man pass rush, can you handle

983
00:49:01,200 --> 00:49:04,480
Speaker 1: the Bucks front four which can be dominant? And bowls

984
00:49:04,480 --> 00:49:06,320
Speaker 1: in his blitzing, Like, I just don't know if I

985
00:49:06,320 --> 00:49:07,839
Speaker 1: can trust per set. So that's kind of a tough

986
00:49:07,880 --> 00:49:10,840
Speaker 1: one for me to swallow. But um, guys, this is

987
00:49:10,880 --> 00:49:13,520
Speaker 1: an exciting weekend. If I do well again, I'm gonna

988
00:49:13,600 --> 00:49:17,160
Speaker 1: probably be insufferable on on Monday, I'll be insufferable anyway.

989
00:49:17,280 --> 00:49:18,320
Speaker 1: Have a good weekend, everybody,