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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I'm just about that action awesome all right.

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Speaker 1: Here we go from growing and so respect.

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Speaker 3: I'm saying it's a cash touchtop.

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Speaker 2: That's all we see.

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Speaker 1: Most gamblers when they go to gamble, they go to wind.

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Speaker 3: That's incredible.

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Speaker 2: Big bank, small banks. I like to make money, all right.

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Speaker 3: This is the ultimate kabai if.

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Speaker 2: You want to.

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Speaker 1: And we are underway. Welcome to the Action Network Podcast,

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Speaker 1: presented by Fan Duel. I'm your host, Jill Gallant with

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Speaker 1: the Action Network, and today I'm joined by NFL experts

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Speaker 1: Brandon Anderson and Evan Abrams. Now Brandon regular guest here

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Speaker 1: on the Action Network Podcast. If you're not familiar with

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Speaker 1: him by now, thank you for listening. But yes, very

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Speaker 1: featured here, awesome insights, and of course we have Evan Abrams.

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Speaker 1: He is our stats Wizard research director here at the

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Speaker 1: Action Network. Gentlemen, today's show, we're gonna be digging deep,

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Speaker 1: breaking out the shovels. We're looking past the regular markets

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Speaker 1: like Super Bowl and NFL MVP, that's child's play stuff.

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Speaker 1: We're getting into the exotic markets. And this is the

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Speaker 1: Action Network's annual NFL Exotic Bets Show, where we look

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Speaker 1: at the deeper markets like teams like best record, make

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Speaker 1: or miss the playoffs, most points scored, first coach fired.

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Speaker 1: So a lot of interesting markets that we're gonna take

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Speaker 1: a look here. Now, the one thing I will just

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Speaker 1: say before we give out our best bets for some

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Speaker 1: of these markets is you're gonna hear a lot of

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Speaker 1: you know, seventy five to one plus five thousand and

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Speaker 1: forty to one. The one thing I would just steer

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Speaker 1: clear of is maybe just having more fun with these bets.

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Speaker 1: These are kind of more pizza bets, you know, maybe

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Speaker 1: don't overextend yourself and let's have some fun with it. So,

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Speaker 1: now that I've got that on record, let's start with

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Speaker 1: the best record. Brandon, you nailed the Philadelphia Eagles last

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Speaker 1: year at twenty to one. You were all over this. Now,

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Speaker 1: they did end up splitting with the Kansas City Chiefs

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Speaker 1: with the best record, but still a win is a win.

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Speaker 1: Please tell us, Brandon, who is having the best record

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Speaker 1: in the NFL at twenty twenty three.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, that was one of my favorites last year, and

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Speaker 4: this is actually one of my favorites on this pod

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Speaker 4: this year. I'm gonna stay in the division, but switch

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Speaker 4: teams to your team, Jell, give me the Dallas Cowboys

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Speaker 4: fourteen to one. I think that they set up to

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Speaker 4: have a great season, especially in the regular season. I

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Speaker 4: feel better about this not having to win some playoff

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Speaker 4: games with old Mike McCarthy. But look, this team knew

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Speaker 4: that it was very close, and then what did they do.

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Speaker 4: They needed a corner Stefan Gilmour is here, that solved

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Speaker 4: that problem. They needed some run defense. They use a

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Speaker 4: first round pick on Mazzie Smith a nose tackle. You

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Speaker 4: don't use that have a pick on a beefy dude

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Speaker 4: on the line to just stand there and eat up

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Speaker 4: guys unless you know, like we really need this and

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Speaker 4: we don't have a lot of holes. They needed another

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Speaker 4: receiver across cdlam. They missed Amari Cooper last year. Well

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Speaker 4: now they have Brandon Cooks, underrated, always gets the job done.

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Speaker 4: They bring back Tyron Smith hopefully he stays healthy this year.

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Speaker 4: He only played four games last year for them. That

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Speaker 4: Dak Prescott missed five games last year. So at all

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Speaker 4: the key positions here, Dallas addressed the needs that they had. Honestly, two,

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Speaker 4: if I'm being honest, I think Zeke is additioned by subtraction,

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Speaker 4: not because he's not good anymore, but because I think

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Speaker 4: he kind of became the crutch for that team right,

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Speaker 4: Like too often is Cowboys fans, you knew Joe, Like

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Speaker 4: every time it's like, come on, another first down, Zeke,

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Speaker 4: run up? That got like, this is not five years

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Speaker 4: ago anymore. Let's move on. I think two. And this

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Speaker 4: is gonna be me talking myself into this a little bit. Look,

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Speaker 4: I don't want Mike McCarthy and Brian schottenheim Er holding

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Speaker 4: my money all year. That's not an exciting thing for me.

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Speaker 4: But here we are. But McCarthy has been very pass

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Speaker 4: heavy when he's run the offense in the past. That's

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Speaker 4: probably good actually, because that's the strength of this offense now.

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Speaker 4: I think even if they're a little less efficient than

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Speaker 4: they were under Kellen Moore last year, passing more might

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Speaker 4: even that out and maybe even make the offense a

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Speaker 4: little better. And Sean Hammer's had a really done a

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Speaker 4: good job of getting the ball to receivers accurately on

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Speaker 4: the move, and I think that's a good setup for Dak.

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Speaker 4: That's good strength for him and Cook's and Ceedee Lamb.

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Speaker 4: Those are the guys you want doing that. So I

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Speaker 4: love the way that sets up for Dallas. NFC East

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Speaker 4: has been something like two decades, I believe, where we've

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Speaker 4: had a new division champion year after year. So I

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Speaker 4: look at the NFC. If it's not the Eagles in

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Speaker 4: the NFC East, it's got to be the Cowboys. I

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Speaker 4: think there's a lot of obvious Eagles regression that just

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Speaker 4: kind of stands out after.

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Speaker 3: Year that good.

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Speaker 4: And had to wear my forty nine ers jersey today

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Speaker 4: because I'm not gonna have a lot of good things

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Speaker 4: to say about them, so I had to even out

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Speaker 4: the mojo. I just don't see one else in the NFC.

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Speaker 4: So Dallas wins a lot, top offensive line, top ten quarterback,

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Speaker 4: even special teams. I like John Fossil's had them top

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Speaker 4: ten three years in a row. Obviously, the defense is great,

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Speaker 4: everyone's number one defense. To me, it's just a team

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Speaker 4: that sets up for a big season. So I don't

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Speaker 4: know if I believe they're gonna actually win this whole thing.

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Speaker 4: We'll get there later, but I like them to win

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Speaker 4: a lot in the regular season. Fourteen to one, and

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Speaker 4: I'm playing this a few ways. You can take an

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Speaker 4: alt line. I see an over twelve and a half,

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Speaker 4: so thirteen and four season, that's plus four to twenty five.

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Speaker 4: You're still gonna have to beat the Eagles and win

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Speaker 4: the division to get that one, but I think if

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Speaker 4: they do, I don't want just a division odds. Give

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Speaker 4: me something better, give me a little more juice and

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Speaker 4: meat on the bone. One seed is plus six fifty. Again,

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Speaker 4: if you beat the Eagles, who else is in the competition?

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Speaker 4: That's probably had to head with the Niners. Now, So

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Speaker 4: I like that one, and I will take the super

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Speaker 4: Bowl ticket fifteen to one because if you are the

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Speaker 4: one seed, you get a chance to win the super Bowl.

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Speaker 4: No matter how much I don't necessarily believe in the

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Speaker 4: postseason chances, this is the one for me. Last year

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Speaker 4: I didn't take the super Bowl ticket on the Eagles,

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Speaker 4: and then I hated it all season a long. I

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Speaker 4: had this bet here on the podcast best Record. If

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Speaker 4: you're gonna buy a team to be the best record,

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Speaker 4: you have to believe they can win the super Bowl. Now,

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Speaker 4: the ticket did in cash because the Eagles came up short,

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Speaker 4: but man, they got really close, and I'd have.

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Speaker 3: Loved to have that long shot.

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Speaker 4: So all in on the Dallas Cowboys this year starting

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Speaker 4: with best record fourteen to one.

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Speaker 1: Wow, what amazing amount of praise for my Dallas Cowboys.

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Speaker 1: I'd probably just end the show right now. I think

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Speaker 1: that would probably be it. I love this bet not

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Speaker 1: just because I'm a Cowboys fan, but because of the

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Speaker 1: NFC path about the lack of competition and the fact

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Speaker 1: that really is just a three team race. I think

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Speaker 1: of what you're pointing to that the fact that they

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Speaker 1: could get to the best record in this spot. For myself,

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Speaker 1: I'm moving over to the AFC, Brandon, I'm looking at

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Speaker 1: the Jacksonville Jaguars. I'm pretty high on Trevor Lawrence for MVP.

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Speaker 1: They have actually the same odds at sixteen to one

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Speaker 1: for best record as him winning MVP. FanDuel and I

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Speaker 1: think what we saw after their bye and in the playoffs,

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Speaker 1: that's the team that we're seeing for the Jacksonville Jaguars,

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Speaker 1: where they went six and one. We saw two big

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Speaker 1: wins over the Baltimore Ravens and the Dallas Cowboys. Both

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Speaker 1: of those games they had to overcome huge deficits, and

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Speaker 1: of course that Chargers game, which was just a big

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Speaker 1: shit show. For the lack of better word. But for me,

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Speaker 1: the big thing about the Jaguars is they do have

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Speaker 1: the hardest strength of schedule inside their own division, but

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Speaker 1: only really the eighteenth most difficult schedule in the league,

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Speaker 1: and those are according to our own Sean Kerner he project.

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Speaker 1: His latest strength of schedule rankings were just published on

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Speaker 1: the Action Network last week, so you should go check

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Speaker 1: those out. Now, the Jaguars, they have the Chiefs, Bills, Niners,

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Speaker 1: and Cincy on the docket, but the rest of the

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Speaker 1: schedule pretty easy. All those AFC teams I just mentioned

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Speaker 1: as well are actually in the top ten for toughest

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Speaker 1: schedule this year, and they get to face the AFC

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Speaker 1: South teams along with the NFC South. I think that

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Speaker 1: could help propel them into the top seeds, especially if

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Speaker 1: the rest of the AFC is kind of cannibalizing itself.

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Speaker 1: Again mentioned Trevor Lawrence being a quality MVP candidate. There's

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Speaker 1: just a lot of upside to go from nine to

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Speaker 1: eight to fourteen and three, which I think would be

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Speaker 1: able to get the best record in the NFL at

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Speaker 1: that stage. So Jacksonville Jaguars at sixteen to one. Evan,

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Speaker 1: what do you think of the Jacksonville Jaguars chances to

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Speaker 1: be able to have best record in the NFL this year.

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Speaker 5: So it was actually funny when it was gonna be

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Speaker 5: my turn, I was gonna say to myself, Okay, which

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Speaker 5: one of Brandon Origill's bet do I like better? So

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Speaker 5: I can praise them. I think I'm more with Dallas.

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Speaker 5: To be honest with you, I think Jacksonville can't get mad.

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Speaker 5: I'm just gonna say I think Jacksonville has a complete

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Speaker 5: chance to do it. But based off my bet who

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Speaker 5: I'm going to talk about in a second, which is

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Speaker 5: way more of a long shot than either of these two.

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Speaker 5: To me, it's an NFC thing too, Like I think

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Speaker 5: it's easier to try to pluck the team who's going

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Speaker 5: to float to the top based off of a few

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Speaker 5: different reasons in that division in that conference versus trying

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Speaker 5: to deal with the gauntlet of the other conference. So

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Speaker 5: just based off of that, and I also I understand

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Speaker 5: what you're doing from the vision, like, I get it.

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Speaker 5: It's kind of the reason I'm going I'm gonna go

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Speaker 5: with my pick as well, And it was kind of

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Speaker 5: the reason BRANDED did the Eagles last year too, So.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I get it. But I prefer Dallas, to be honest.

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Speaker 1: So you prefer Dallas, again, I won't really argue then,

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Speaker 1: So who in the NFC are you looking at for

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Speaker 1: best record?

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Speaker 5: Sure, so I'm gonna be way more concise with mine

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Speaker 5: because I you know, I think it's just down to

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Speaker 5: some bare attacks and it's just a little bit of value.

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Speaker 5: I'm gonna roll the dice with the Falcons, and I

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Speaker 5: know you're everyone's gonna be like, what are you talking about?

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Speaker 5: This is crazy? I mean, I like Atlanta anyway. Honestly,

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Speaker 5: their division couldn't be more poor in general. They have

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Speaker 5: the second easiest schedule in the league Gordon of course

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Speaker 5: Kerner fourth easiest schedule in the first six weeks.

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Speaker 2: Again, they're in the NFC.

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Speaker 5: They open up two games at home, so hopefully we

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Speaker 5: can get a little momentum, a little running. And I mean,

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Speaker 5: if you look at last year improvements on defense, added

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Speaker 5: off weapons on offense, I just like them overall. And

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Speaker 5: then you work in the schedule, you work in the conference.

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Speaker 5: I think it's worth a flyer like forty or fifty

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Speaker 5: to one I see in the market.

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Speaker 1: Especially with the fact that the Falcons right now at

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Speaker 1: FAD will have a win total of eight and a

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Speaker 1: half with the minus odds on the over, as well

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Speaker 1: as having minus odds to make the playoffs. So I

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Speaker 1: don't think you're alone on this one, Evan. I think

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Speaker 1: a lot of people and especially betters, are already looking

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Speaker 1: at this. Brandon, what are you thinking of the Falcons here?

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Speaker 3: Yeah?

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Speaker 4: I love the Falcons. My eyes lit up when I

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Speaker 4: saw this on the list. I did not consider this here,

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Speaker 4: and I was like, man, why didn't I consider this here? Like,

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Speaker 4: we're gonna hear a lot of Falcons love for me

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Speaker 4: later in this podcast, and I even have like I

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Speaker 4: was like, I wish I could bet the Falcons to

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Speaker 4: be the two seed, and I didn't quite get there

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Speaker 4: on this one. But you know why, It's similar to

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Speaker 4: what I said about Dallas. If I really like Atlanta

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Speaker 4: enough all the ways I do to be at least

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Speaker 4: the two seed, well then why couldn't they win another

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Speaker 4: game or two? Why couldn't they be in the mix here?

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Speaker 4: So forty to one. Look again, we're playing long shots here,

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Speaker 4: so I want to chime in on that. The other

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Speaker 4: thing too, that I really do agree with on Evan,

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Speaker 4: but I think is important framing on a lot of

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Speaker 4: the picks that we're making here. For me, at least,

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Speaker 4: that NFCAFC thing is really important this season. I did

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Speaker 4: my quarterback rankings article, and eight of the top nine

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Speaker 4: quarterbacks this season right now are in the AFC. It's

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Speaker 4: Jalen Hurts and then eight AFC quarterbacks. Then Dak Prescott

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Speaker 4: is my number ten. Maybe he could go a little

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Speaker 4: higher in that range, but that's it. That's the ten.

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Speaker 4: So eight out of nine we only have seven playoff teams.

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Speaker 4: One of the top nine quarterbacks doesn't get into the

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Speaker 4: playoffs at least maybe more than one, because there's other

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Speaker 4: teams down the.

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Speaker 3: List that might push as well.

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Speaker 4: So the AFC to me, like when we talk about

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Speaker 4: maker miss the playoffs or who's going to be the sleeper,

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Speaker 4: I'm all about I want sleepers in the NFC. I

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Speaker 4: want bad outcomes in the AFC, because I think the

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Speaker 4: margin is way thinner in the AFC and the margin

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Speaker 4: of stupidly doing awesome my Vikings last year, or the

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Speaker 4: Giants and Coach of the Year Ryan.

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Speaker 3: Daboll, it's the NFC.

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Speaker 4: Oh look, you won thirteen games. Congratulations Vikings, what a

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Speaker 4: great season. You only deserved eight but it doesn't matter

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Speaker 4: you play at the NFC. So I think that's really

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Speaker 4: important framing. As you're thinking about who's my sleeper this year,

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Speaker 4: who's my long shot? To me, NFC long shots just

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Speaker 4: have a wider path to come through.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So we were looking at a lot of the

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Speaker 1: teams that we're thinking going to finish at the top

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Speaker 1: of the standings. Now let's automatically start looking at the basement.

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Speaker 1: I think you mentioned an important word, stupidly doing awesome.

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Speaker 1: We're gonna be looking at the opposite for this, stupidly

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Speaker 1: just being stupid. And that's the Arizona Cardinals that I

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Speaker 1: think I'm gonna have the worst record this year, and

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Speaker 1: you can get them right now at plus two fifty.

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Speaker 1: A classic case of just tell me you're tanking without

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Speaker 1: saying you're tanking. Because this team has question marks at

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Speaker 1: a lot of key positions, specifically quarterback. They've got a

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Speaker 1: batter broster with little talent and a rookie head coach,

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Speaker 1: and usually teams have maybe one of those issues. It's

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Speaker 1: very rare where a team all of those boxes and

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Speaker 1: we're still in August. So they just released Colt McCloy.

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Speaker 1: They traded DeAndre Hopkins Isaiah Simmons. They traded off one

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Speaker 1: of their starting offensive linemen. They went four and thirteen

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Speaker 1: last year and they were one in five in the division.

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Speaker 1: Where is the improvement coming? And they have the lowest

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Speaker 1: over under win total at four and a half. That's

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Speaker 1: two full games lower than the next team. Another thing

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Speaker 1: about the Cardinals two over the last two seasons, and

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Speaker 1: remember they had a winning season in twenty twenty one,

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Speaker 1: so this includes this trend. Home field has been a

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Speaker 1: disaster for the Cardinals over the last two years. They

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Speaker 1: were four and thirteen straight up at home, eleven and

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Speaker 1: six on the road. Six of their eight home games

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Speaker 1: this year are against teams that went to the playoffs

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Speaker 1: last year. And not only that, they're projected to be

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Speaker 1: at least a six point dog in every home game

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Speaker 1: except one versus the Falcons, where they're three and a

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Speaker 1: half point underdogs. So the Arizona Cardinals for me, is

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Speaker 1: who I think is going to finish with the worst record. Evan,

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Speaker 1: do you have a team in the NFC that will

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Speaker 1: finish with the worst record? Are you looking at the AFC?

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Speaker 2: I'm looking more to the AFC in this one.

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Speaker 5: But I think I feel like I had to start

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Speaker 5: this the way probably everyone did, which is like the

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Speaker 5: right bet is probably Arizona.

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Speaker 2: But like, let's have like a little bit of fun

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Speaker 2: here just for a second, and.

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Speaker 1: I want to get one winner though, just one.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, that's what I'm saying, Like, imagine world, imagine a

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Speaker 5: world where it's not So I did a little bit

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Speaker 5: of a formula in looking at this and just went

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Speaker 5: in my head to try to like really narrow down

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Speaker 5: the team. So bottom third in the league and rest advantage,

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Speaker 5: bottom third in the league in strength to schedule and

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Speaker 5: in the AFC, so that leaves us with actually three

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Speaker 5: teams just kind of ironic. It's the Chiefs probably not

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Speaker 5: for this one, the Chargers also probably not for this one,

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Speaker 5: and my bet the Raiders. So when you look at it,

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Speaker 5: like when you look at it like this as well,

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Speaker 5: how about also hardest strength to schedule for six weeks,

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Speaker 5: that's Kansas City. To throw that out the window. Now,

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Speaker 5: the one stat that I looked at three wins or

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Speaker 5: less over the last five years all had win totals

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Speaker 5: of six and a half or less. So in this situation,

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Speaker 5: you're usually not looking for like a crazy long shot

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Speaker 5: it's usually a bad team's going to be bad, and

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Speaker 5: especially the worst team in the league is going to

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Speaker 5: be bad. So that's also why I ended up looking

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Speaker 5: at the Raiders in this spot. I mean eight games

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Speaker 5: October to Christmas, which include five playoff teams, plus they

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Speaker 5: get Detroit and the Jets, like they have a really

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Speaker 5: hard slate as they go through the season, and if

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Speaker 5: I'm looking right now, they at Denver, at Buffalo versus Pittsburgh,

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Speaker 5: at the Chargers Green Bay, Like the start of the

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Speaker 5: year isn't easy for them, so if things don't go right,

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Speaker 5: things go a little bit, you know, it is McDaniel's.

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Speaker 2: So I kind of like the Raiders. And the only other.

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Speaker 5: One I was looking at is Tampa Bay that's near

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Speaker 5: the top plus eight fifty a little intriguing, fifth worst

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Speaker 5: schedule for six weeks. Have also a first place schedule

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Speaker 5: this year, which I think is important with some of

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Speaker 5: these like their games are going to be hard against

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Speaker 5: good teams. So those are the two I looked at,

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Speaker 5: But I like the Raiders in this slot.

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Speaker 1: All right, Raiders thirteen to one for worst record. Brandon,

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Speaker 1: do you share the same sentiment I do?

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Speaker 4: I like the Raiders they were the pick I was

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Speaker 4: gonna make the case for here, but you basically made

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Speaker 4: the case I was gonna make Evan, So I'll leave

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Speaker 4: that there. We'll get to one of my favorite categories,

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Speaker 4: first coach fired later. But I think Josh McDaniels, if

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Speaker 4: things go awry, is a pretty obvious Candon for that,

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Speaker 4: and then the outre much shorter there, So I think

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Speaker 4: this is maybe a better, longer odds way to play

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Speaker 4: that sort of thing. And I think for this one too,

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Speaker 4: especially this year, this is a great quarterback draft. You

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Speaker 4: want the quarterback. You want Caleb Williams. So who's gonna

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Speaker 4: give the number one pick? Who's gonna have the worst record?

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Speaker 4: A team that needs a quarterback like the Raiders don't

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Speaker 4: have a good season, it's because Garoppolo stinks because spoiler alert,

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Speaker 4: Garroppolo stinks and doesn't fit there, and so it's like, okay,

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Speaker 4: when you start over, and let's over hard and the

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Speaker 4: right way and get that number one pick and get

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Speaker 4: Caleb Williams or Drake may Like, there's two possible number

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Speaker 4: one picks in the draft at quarterback, So you definitely

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Speaker 4: want a team here that thinks they need a quarterback. Look,

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Speaker 4: I think that the real answer here, like Evan said,

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Speaker 4: is the Cardinals. That's just the obvious choice. They're tanking,

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Speaker 4: like they're straight up tanking. I track the way I

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Speaker 4: kind of prepare for the season. I have a huge

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Speaker 4: rosters matrix where I have quarterback, running back, receiver, offensive line,

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Speaker 4: defensive line, linebacker, special teams, offensive coordinator. Like this just

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Speaker 4: this crazy matrix of stuff. Everyone gets ranked top to bottom.

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Speaker 4: And like, you know, if you're going to create a

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Speaker 4: new stat to measure quarterbacks, what would you do to

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Speaker 4: test and see if it worked? You would look and

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Speaker 4: see is Patrick Mahomes number one in the stat? If

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Speaker 4: I like measured a thing and Mahomes came out number one, saying, okay,

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Speaker 4: he's the best quarterback, all right, the stat's probably pretty good.

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Speaker 4: So my test this year preparing for the season, as

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Speaker 4: I did my rosters matrix, sometimes i'd sort it running back,

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Speaker 4: or i'd sort by defensive line or sort by overall defense.

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Speaker 4: And the way my screen looks when I click sort,

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Speaker 4: I always see my heading and the very last line,

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Speaker 4: And if I click sort and the last line is

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Speaker 4: at Arizona, I knew that I was on the right track,

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Speaker 4: because that line never removed is just Arizona's worst and everything.

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Speaker 4: They don't have anything. We don't even know who the

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Speaker 4: quarterback is on this team for opening day right now,

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Speaker 4: so it's probably them.

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Speaker 3: I like the Raiders.

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Speaker 4: I'll throw out a little longer shot here just to

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Speaker 4: get another team in the mix. Give me my local

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Speaker 4: Chicago Bears twenty five to one. I will bet against

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Speaker 4: Justin Fields two ways. Number one, maybe he gets hurt

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Speaker 4: and we go to the backup.

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Speaker 3: Number two.

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Speaker 4: I just don't think he's that good. I don't think

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Speaker 4: that then. He's so far has not been good. He

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Speaker 4: could be good, maybe he will become good. He has

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Speaker 4: not been good. That's what I will say. I put

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Speaker 4: him twice any of in my QB rankings. I got

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Speaker 4: a lot of crap for that, and frankly, I think

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Speaker 4: I should have gotten some praise. I think that I

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Speaker 4: was like putting a lot of hope in the fields.

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Speaker 4: He has not been a top twenty quarterback so far. Guys,

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Speaker 4: do you know I'm gonna let you guess? Do you

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Speaker 4: know who Justin Field's backup is on the roster right now?

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Speaker 4: If you were to get hurt or benched, so.

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Speaker 2: It's not Peterman didn't get good.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, Peterman just got let go.

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Speaker 4: So Peterman's cut pg O Locker got cut. Is a

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Speaker 4: manned by the name of Tyson Bagent out of Division

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Speaker 4: two shepherd University, Shepherdstown, West Virginia. Look, justin fields runs

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Speaker 4: a lot, takes a lot of hits. There's a pretty

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Speaker 4: good chance my man, Tyson Bagent is stepping out of

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Speaker 4: the field sometime this year. I have the Bears bottom

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Speaker 4: five offense and defense. I don't love that they're in

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Speaker 4: the NFC here for all the reasons we've said, it'd

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Speaker 4: rather an AFC team, and frankly, that's the worst division

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Speaker 4: for me. So you might just accidentally beat the Vikings

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Speaker 4: or the or the line sometime or whoever. But twenty

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Speaker 4: five to one, if it goes bad, it's gonna be

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Speaker 4: because of fields. So if it goes bad, they're gonna

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Speaker 4: want the high pick to replace fields, which they chose

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Speaker 4: not to do last year and probably wouldn't do two

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Speaker 4: years in a row. So Chicago Bears twenty five to one.

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Speaker 1: All right, that's enough about these trash teams. Let's talk

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Speaker 1: about make or miss the playoffs now, because I don't

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Speaker 1: want to talk anymore about the Cardinals or Bears. If

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Speaker 1: we don't have to, I'll get it started. Though. With

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Speaker 1: the playoff props here and this market, I was looking

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Speaker 1: at miss the playoffs, and I'm looking at the Jets.

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Speaker 1: The Jets to miss the playoffs right now or plus

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Speaker 1: one ten. And I know it's an easy thing to

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Speaker 1: pile on the Jets and be that naysayer, but they

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Speaker 1: might have the hardest two months of any team in football.

431
00:20:36,920 --> 00:20:39,560
Speaker 1: They start off with Buffalo, then they're in Dallas, then

432
00:20:39,600 --> 00:20:42,160
Speaker 1: they host New England, a team they haven't beaten forever.

433
00:20:42,440 --> 00:20:45,439
Speaker 1: Then they're playing KC. Then they go to Denver, and

434
00:20:45,480 --> 00:20:48,600
Speaker 1: then they host Philadelphia Like that to me is a

435
00:20:48,760 --> 00:20:52,520
Speaker 1: murderer's row, like the seventh hardest strength of schedule, according

436
00:20:52,600 --> 00:20:55,800
Speaker 1: again to Sean Kerner's rankings. And then in the back half,

437
00:20:56,040 --> 00:20:57,840
Speaker 1: if the Dolphins are even any good, they have to

438
00:20:57,880 --> 00:21:01,800
Speaker 1: still face them twice and the Bills again. So for me,

439
00:21:01,960 --> 00:21:04,240
Speaker 1: I'm already just looking at there's just a lot of

440
00:21:04,280 --> 00:21:06,760
Speaker 1: an uphill battle right now for the Jets. They're on

441
00:21:06,880 --> 00:21:09,840
Speaker 1: hard knocks. Hard knocks teams tend to fall short. Over

442
00:21:09,880 --> 00:21:12,040
Speaker 1: the last ten years, only two teams featured on the

443
00:21:12,040 --> 00:21:14,320
Speaker 1: show actually went on to make the playoffs. It was

444
00:21:14,320 --> 00:21:18,280
Speaker 1: the Rams and twenty twenty Cowboys in twenty one. For me,

445
00:21:19,320 --> 00:21:21,320
Speaker 1: you need at least nine toin to eight in the standings.

446
00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:23,520
Speaker 1: I can't see right now more than seven wins on

447
00:21:23,560 --> 00:21:26,679
Speaker 1: that schedule. What are you guys thinking right now? So

448
00:21:26,760 --> 00:21:28,760
Speaker 1: I have the Jets to miss the playoffs, Evan, are

449
00:21:28,840 --> 00:21:30,720
Speaker 1: you looking at any other teams in the AFC to

450
00:21:30,720 --> 00:21:31,320
Speaker 1: fall short?

451
00:21:32,160 --> 00:21:32,400
Speaker 2: Yeah?

452
00:21:32,440 --> 00:21:34,919
Speaker 5: So, I mean initially, and I think it's funny I

453
00:21:34,960 --> 00:21:37,280
Speaker 5: was doing this. I was looking at the Dolphins because,

454
00:21:37,440 --> 00:21:40,639
Speaker 5: like I really tried to look at win total about

455
00:21:40,720 --> 00:21:43,159
Speaker 5: nine and a half. Which of these teams do I

456
00:21:43,200 --> 00:21:45,960
Speaker 5: think have the best chance to falter because it's usually

457
00:21:46,000 --> 00:21:48,480
Speaker 5: about that range where you tend to find some value.

458
00:21:48,720 --> 00:21:51,000
Speaker 5: So I did land on Miami. They're about minus one

459
00:21:51,040 --> 00:21:54,320
Speaker 5: to ten range to miss the playoffs. And I looked

460
00:21:54,359 --> 00:21:56,040
Speaker 5: at the end of their schedule. They end with the

461
00:21:56,119 --> 00:22:01,959
Speaker 5: Jets wash at Washington, Tennessee. The Jets again as Buffalo Baltimore.

462
00:22:02,440 --> 00:22:04,960
Speaker 5: Not the easiest end of the year. Now you look

463
00:22:05,000 --> 00:22:08,480
Speaker 5: at rest advantage, they are plus seven, but that all

464
00:22:08,520 --> 00:22:13,439
Speaker 5: comes with one game, which is coming after Germany and

465
00:22:13,480 --> 00:22:15,879
Speaker 5: they play the Raiders who they should beat anyway, and

466
00:22:15,920 --> 00:22:18,520
Speaker 5: a rest advantage wouldn't matter, and you kind of look

467
00:22:18,520 --> 00:22:21,320
Speaker 5: at to it. Missed fifteen games the past three seasons.

468
00:22:21,640 --> 00:22:24,199
Speaker 5: Literally with him, a hit can happen at any point

469
00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:26,600
Speaker 5: and listen like the Jets, and I thought it was funny.

470
00:22:26,640 --> 00:22:30,119
Speaker 5: I looked at the rundown and saw Jets, I thought Dolphins.

471
00:22:30,320 --> 00:22:32,679
Speaker 5: I think we're on the same page in thinking that

472
00:22:33,240 --> 00:22:37,000
Speaker 5: somebody is going to fall off in that division if

473
00:22:37,000 --> 00:22:39,760
Speaker 5: people like Buffalo. And I'm going to talk about New

474
00:22:39,800 --> 00:22:42,720
Speaker 5: England in a second, I absolutely hate New England, so

475
00:22:43,960 --> 00:22:47,359
Speaker 5: I couldn't be more anti New England and during this season,

476
00:22:47,680 --> 00:22:50,240
Speaker 5: so I also looked at this as you know, is

477
00:22:50,240 --> 00:22:54,200
Speaker 5: it possible they're both really bad shrug emoji?

478
00:22:54,320 --> 00:22:54,840
Speaker 2: Possibly?

479
00:22:55,320 --> 00:22:57,480
Speaker 5: I think the other bet that I really like in

480
00:22:57,520 --> 00:22:59,600
Speaker 5: this spot, and I'll be quick here is the Lions.

481
00:22:59,840 --> 00:23:02,720
Speaker 5: So plus one thirty six plus one forty to miss

482
00:23:02,760 --> 00:23:10,240
Speaker 5: the playoffs. Their schedules brutal, they're non division trips, Chiefs, Ravens, Saints, Cowboys, Chargers,

483
00:23:10,520 --> 00:23:13,240
Speaker 5: and they've got so many back to back road games

484
00:23:13,560 --> 00:23:17,960
Speaker 5: six and seven, thirteen, fourteen, sixteen, seventeen, and come on,

485
00:23:18,000 --> 00:23:21,080
Speaker 5: they're just four twelve and one on the road under Campbell,

486
00:23:21,119 --> 00:23:24,800
Speaker 5: like there's a decent chance another team in this division

487
00:23:25,040 --> 00:23:27,080
Speaker 5: kind of steps up to the top. I've heard Stucky

488
00:23:27,280 --> 00:23:30,879
Speaker 5: likes the Packers. I know Raybon likes the Bears. Like

489
00:23:30,920 --> 00:23:33,560
Speaker 5: everyone kind of has their choice and pick when everyone's

490
00:23:33,560 --> 00:23:35,560
Speaker 5: trying to go against the Lions. So I think a

491
00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:37,919
Speaker 5: Lions not to make the playoffs and kind of fade

492
00:23:38,400 --> 00:23:41,080
Speaker 5: everything that, you know all the momentum of the season

493
00:23:41,359 --> 00:23:42,439
Speaker 5: is a decent way to play it.

494
00:23:42,880 --> 00:23:45,919
Speaker 1: Brandon, sounds like both Evan and I are just kind

495
00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:47,640
Speaker 1: of crapping on the AFC East here.

496
00:23:48,680 --> 00:23:50,200
Speaker 3: Do you concur or a there are other.

497
00:23:50,080 --> 00:23:52,440
Speaker 1: Teams that you're thinking about that could make or miss

498
00:23:52,440 --> 00:23:53,040
Speaker 1: the playoffs?

499
00:23:53,200 --> 00:23:55,320
Speaker 4: Yeah, I actually I had three picks here I was

500
00:23:55,320 --> 00:23:56,960
Speaker 4: looking at and two of them are two of the

501
00:23:56,960 --> 00:23:59,000
Speaker 4: ones you guys just did. So I'll just chime in on.

502
00:23:59,080 --> 00:24:01,720
Speaker 4: I agree Jets and Lines both to miss the playoffs.

503
00:24:02,440 --> 00:24:05,200
Speaker 4: Basically Jets everything you said, Jill, I think to a

504
00:24:05,240 --> 00:24:08,200
Speaker 4: couple of key positions that they're very thin on. They're

505
00:24:08,240 --> 00:24:10,920
Speaker 4: out of receivers after Garrett Wilson get out of here

506
00:24:10,960 --> 00:24:14,159
Speaker 4: with Aaron Rodgers buddies playing receiver, Like, I do not

507
00:24:14,320 --> 00:24:17,480
Speaker 4: need if Wilson was injured for any amount of time,

508
00:24:17,840 --> 00:24:20,760
Speaker 4: we got suddenly Alan Lazard and Randall Cobb.

509
00:24:20,800 --> 00:24:23,880
Speaker 3: These are your top options. Like Elijah Moore. I think

510
00:24:23,880 --> 00:24:24,600
Speaker 3: they need him back.

511
00:24:24,600 --> 00:24:27,000
Speaker 4: They should not have traded him because now Corey Davis

512
00:24:27,080 --> 00:24:29,159
Speaker 4: retired to get away from Aaron Rodgers. You heard it

513
00:24:29,240 --> 00:24:32,439
Speaker 4: here first like there's nobody left there. And then on

514
00:24:32,480 --> 00:24:36,679
Speaker 4: the defense, I was surprised in my roster's matrix. As

515
00:24:36,720 --> 00:24:39,439
Speaker 4: good as this defense looked last year, the overall talent

516
00:24:39,520 --> 00:24:42,920
Speaker 4: doesn't really pop on my matrix except at corner, where

517
00:24:42,960 --> 00:24:46,200
Speaker 4: corner is really really good. But corner is one spot

518
00:24:46,240 --> 00:24:49,120
Speaker 4: where you can get an injury or two some cluster injuries,

519
00:24:49,119 --> 00:24:51,359
Speaker 4: and that thing switches in a hurry. So I just

520
00:24:51,400 --> 00:24:52,280
Speaker 4: think there's.

521
00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:54,760
Speaker 3: A lot of ways that could go sideways. Lions. I

522
00:24:54,840 --> 00:24:56,000
Speaker 3: gree with what you said. Evan.

523
00:24:56,359 --> 00:24:59,120
Speaker 4: The thing too with Detroit. You start the opening night

524
00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:01,360
Speaker 4: Thursday night in Kansas City.

525
00:25:01,280 --> 00:25:03,400
Speaker 3: So at the very least you're probably oh.

526
00:25:03,400 --> 00:25:06,359
Speaker 4: On to one and already lasts in the division. So

527
00:25:07,000 --> 00:25:09,480
Speaker 4: literally just buying in and I see a plus one

528
00:25:09,520 --> 00:25:12,199
Speaker 4: to fifty to miss the playoffs, that number is going

529
00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:14,880
Speaker 4: to just move in our favor and you get practically

530
00:25:14,960 --> 00:25:16,480
Speaker 4: just like you might even be able to buy on

531
00:25:16,520 --> 00:25:19,000
Speaker 4: the other side at a plus number after one game

532
00:25:19,040 --> 00:25:21,600
Speaker 4: of the NFL season and just immediately lock in a

533
00:25:21,600 --> 00:25:23,840
Speaker 4: profit and wash your hands be done for the year.

534
00:25:23,960 --> 00:25:27,080
Speaker 4: So there's a possibility there. I'm gonna go with the

535
00:25:27,119 --> 00:25:29,520
Speaker 4: team that haven't talked about earlier here and do the

536
00:25:29,520 --> 00:25:32,600
Speaker 4: Atlanta Falcons. So Atlanta is plus one tend to make

537
00:25:32,600 --> 00:25:36,200
Speaker 4: the playoffs. I just what I like about Atlanta this year.

538
00:25:36,720 --> 00:25:39,239
Speaker 4: I don't know if I love love them to you know,

539
00:25:39,320 --> 00:25:41,280
Speaker 4: like go on a Super Bowl run or something crazy.

540
00:25:41,320 --> 00:25:43,800
Speaker 4: But to me, they added a lot of floor raisers.

541
00:25:44,160 --> 00:25:48,480
Speaker 4: The defense brought in just a bunch of veteran guys, right,

542
00:25:48,560 --> 00:25:51,399
Speaker 4: some adults in the room. Jesse Bates that safety I

543
00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:53,240
Speaker 4: think is going to make a big difference kind of

544
00:25:53,359 --> 00:25:56,600
Speaker 4: organizing things. On the d line, they went from having

545
00:25:56,640 --> 00:26:00,199
Speaker 4: a really weak line to Anyamada and Kalays Campbell and

546
00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:02,800
Speaker 4: they got Bud Dupree to rush the passer. I really

547
00:26:02,840 --> 00:26:05,880
Speaker 4: like the new defensive coordinator to Ryan Nielsen comes over.

548
00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:08,320
Speaker 4: He was with the Saints working with the line, and

549
00:26:08,359 --> 00:26:11,159
Speaker 4: we've seen how good that Saints defense has been and

550
00:26:11,280 --> 00:26:15,520
Speaker 4: really developing guys there. Deepax coordinator. Another one came from

551
00:26:15,600 --> 00:26:18,400
Speaker 4: Green Bay. They've had a lot of success developing corners there.

552
00:26:18,480 --> 00:26:24,199
Speaker 4: So I think the defense goes from terrible to maybe okay,

553
00:26:24,440 --> 00:26:26,840
Speaker 4: like average, which is a really important step in the

554
00:26:26,960 --> 00:26:29,639
Speaker 4: NFL because he gives you a chance. And then the

555
00:26:29,720 --> 00:26:30,560
Speaker 4: key is the offense.

556
00:26:30,600 --> 00:26:30,760
Speaker 3: Here.

557
00:26:30,800 --> 00:26:33,320
Speaker 4: I have this as the number eight offense in the NFL.

558
00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:38,040
Speaker 4: Awesome blocking line, Bijeon Robinson. I'm all love for my guy,

559
00:26:38,119 --> 00:26:40,720
Speaker 4: Bijon Jilly. You and I talked about him both the

560
00:26:40,760 --> 00:26:44,439
Speaker 4: line for Rookie of the Year offensively, Drake London, Kyle Pitts.

561
00:26:44,440 --> 00:26:47,160
Speaker 4: There's plenty of weapons there. And I don't know about

562
00:26:47,200 --> 00:26:47,840
Speaker 4: Desmond Raider.

563
00:26:47,880 --> 00:26:48,600
Speaker 3: I'm not really that.

564
00:26:48,600 --> 00:26:52,480
Speaker 4: Sold personally, but Desmond Ridder plus Arthur Smith can give

565
00:26:52,520 --> 00:26:56,000
Speaker 4: me competency. We've heard all year the forty nine ers

566
00:26:56,040 --> 00:26:59,560
Speaker 4: thing about it doesn't even matter who plays quarterback for them. Well,

567
00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:01,359
Speaker 4: I'm not sure if it matters a lot who plays

568
00:27:01,440 --> 00:27:04,800
Speaker 4: quarterback for Atlanta as long as it's not Marcus Mariota anymore. Like,

569
00:27:05,080 --> 00:27:08,359
Speaker 4: give us an actual quarterback in twenty twenty three, but

570
00:27:09,000 --> 00:27:11,960
Speaker 4: Arthur Smith had a top six offense twice in Tennessee

571
00:27:12,280 --> 00:27:15,800
Speaker 4: and he was thirteenth last year Dvoa, even though Mariota

572
00:27:15,840 --> 00:27:18,520
Speaker 4: and a rookie, you played the entire season. So I

573
00:27:18,560 --> 00:27:21,080
Speaker 4: actually have the floor very high on this team. They're

574
00:27:21,119 --> 00:27:23,000
Speaker 4: over under his eight and a half. I project them

575
00:27:23,000 --> 00:27:26,280
Speaker 4: about ten wins, so in the NFC that is very

576
00:27:26,320 --> 00:27:28,840
Speaker 4: safely in the playoffs, I have a seven or eight

577
00:27:28,880 --> 00:27:32,159
Speaker 4: win team making that final wildcard spot. So I like

578
00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:35,320
Speaker 4: Atlanta for more than this. We'll get to them again

579
00:27:35,359 --> 00:27:39,480
Speaker 4: as far as divisions and things beyond that. But to me,

580
00:27:40,480 --> 00:27:42,840
Speaker 4: you guys know, I love my escalator bets. This for

581
00:27:42,920 --> 00:27:45,040
Speaker 4: me is kind of a good baseline bet. Gave me

582
00:27:45,080 --> 00:27:47,240
Speaker 4: a thing that I feel pretty good about hitting here

583
00:27:47,280 --> 00:27:49,320
Speaker 4: Atlanta just to make the playoffs, even if it's a

584
00:27:49,320 --> 00:27:52,439
Speaker 4: wild card, and then I'll use some of that to

585
00:27:52,560 --> 00:27:56,040
Speaker 4: sort of fund my escalator bets in Atlanta later on.

586
00:27:56,880 --> 00:27:57,080
Speaker 3: Yeah.

587
00:27:57,119 --> 00:27:58,720
Speaker 1: One of the things we see every year in the

588
00:27:58,840 --> 00:28:02,920
Speaker 1: NFL are teams who come in they finished last in

589
00:28:02,960 --> 00:28:06,159
Speaker 1: their division and then surprise everybody and go right to

590
00:28:06,200 --> 00:28:08,440
Speaker 1: the top and win the division title. For example, Brandon,

591
00:28:08,480 --> 00:28:10,680
Speaker 1: you did this last year. You had the Jaguars at

592
00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:15,040
Speaker 1: eight to one to go from worse to first, and

593
00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:16,800
Speaker 1: I think you might be thinking of another team in

594
00:28:16,840 --> 00:28:19,640
Speaker 1: the AFC seven. What are you looking at right now? Yeah,

595
00:28:19,720 --> 00:28:21,840
Speaker 1: back to the well on this one. Back to the

596
00:28:21,960 --> 00:28:22,840
Speaker 1: same division.

597
00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:27,880
Speaker 4: Out with the Jaguars, in with my Houston Texans eleven

598
00:28:27,960 --> 00:28:31,119
Speaker 4: to one, worst of first Division winner. That is my

599
00:28:31,240 --> 00:28:33,560
Speaker 4: pick and this year's worse first Actually, Atlanta is my

600
00:28:33,600 --> 00:28:35,960
Speaker 4: pick too, So give me a Lanta plus two to twenty.

601
00:28:35,960 --> 00:28:37,640
Speaker 4: I just made the whole case for that. Nothing more

602
00:28:37,640 --> 00:28:41,960
Speaker 4: to say there. Houston again added a lot of floor raizers.

603
00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:44,520
Speaker 4: This team has not been irrelevant for a few years. Right,

604
00:28:44,840 --> 00:28:48,320
Speaker 4: this is an actual professional football team now. The defense

605
00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:52,040
Speaker 4: is gonna be way better. Demiko Ryans led the best

606
00:28:52,040 --> 00:28:54,160
Speaker 4: defense in the NFL last year, and he's the head

607
00:28:54,200 --> 00:28:57,680
Speaker 4: coach here. You're gonna work miracles overnight. But look what

608
00:28:57,760 --> 00:29:00,800
Speaker 4: he did with Hufonga, with Fred Way, guys who were

609
00:29:00,800 --> 00:29:04,600
Speaker 4: a little bit more unknown that became superstars in San Francisco.

610
00:29:05,400 --> 00:29:08,240
Speaker 4: I think Houston has a lot of talent. Will Anderson,

611
00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:11,720
Speaker 4: my man for defensive Rookie of the Year, Derek Stingley,

612
00:29:11,800 --> 00:29:15,280
Speaker 4: the corner they brought in, Rankins, Jimmy Ward. I think

613
00:29:15,320 --> 00:29:17,600
Speaker 4: there's just a lot of defense here that's going to improve,

614
00:29:18,400 --> 00:29:22,160
Speaker 4: and offensively the line. I'm hoping is good. We got

615
00:29:22,160 --> 00:29:24,520
Speaker 4: some injuries now, so I'm getting a little concerned there.

616
00:29:24,880 --> 00:29:25,480
Speaker 3: I need CJ.

617
00:29:25,560 --> 00:29:28,200
Speaker 4: Stroud to have a lot of shell around him, a

618
00:29:28,240 --> 00:29:32,040
Speaker 4: lot of help, but hopefully good offensive line. I think,

619
00:29:32,080 --> 00:29:35,080
Speaker 4: best line in the division, best defense, best special teams.

620
00:29:35,520 --> 00:29:38,520
Speaker 4: I like the Texans eleven toh one. I'm not a

621
00:29:38,560 --> 00:29:41,960
Speaker 4: believer in your Jaguars, Jel, I'm sorry, but I like Houston.

622
00:29:42,000 --> 00:29:43,880
Speaker 4: Here for a lot of awards this season. This is

623
00:29:43,920 --> 00:29:44,760
Speaker 4: one of my favorites.

624
00:29:45,520 --> 00:29:45,880
Speaker 3: All right.

625
00:29:45,920 --> 00:29:48,880
Speaker 1: Well, the Will Anderson jersey, I'm sure is in the mail.

626
00:29:50,000 --> 00:29:52,840
Speaker 1: Speaking of another worst to first candidate, Evan, you were

627
00:29:52,880 --> 00:29:54,560
Speaker 1: looking at somebody in the AFC.

628
00:29:55,160 --> 00:29:57,560
Speaker 5: Yeah, So I'll also set the table a little bit

629
00:29:57,640 --> 00:30:00,240
Speaker 5: on base off, Brandon said, I think an interesting way

630
00:30:00,280 --> 00:30:02,320
Speaker 5: of looking at these types of bets is looking at

631
00:30:02,360 --> 00:30:04,560
Speaker 5: all the divisions as a whole, and right now this

632
00:30:04,640 --> 00:30:07,240
Speaker 5: is like the tightest division race we've seen in years,

633
00:30:07,280 --> 00:30:10,040
Speaker 5: because currently there is no betting favorite of minus two

634
00:30:10,120 --> 00:30:12,600
Speaker 5: hundred or higher in any division, and that's the first

635
00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:14,360
Speaker 5: time since two thousand and four and the second time

636
00:30:14,400 --> 00:30:17,720
Speaker 5: since two thousand. So at the current moment, it's anybody's

637
00:30:17,800 --> 00:30:20,600
Speaker 5: race and almost any division, but probably the Cardinals. So

638
00:30:20,920 --> 00:30:24,880
Speaker 5: if you look around Falcons, I'm anti Detroit, I'm anti

639
00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:25,600
Speaker 5: the Jaguars.

640
00:30:25,600 --> 00:30:26,960
Speaker 2: That's why I like his textans pick.

641
00:30:27,000 --> 00:30:28,760
Speaker 5: So I do think there's like you know, I even

642
00:30:28,760 --> 00:30:30,960
Speaker 5: think there's an opportunity in the AFC West for the

643
00:30:30,960 --> 00:30:33,480
Speaker 5: first time and maybe a millennium. So I even think

644
00:30:33,480 --> 00:30:37,560
Speaker 5: there's But I'm gonna look at the Browns and I

645
00:30:37,840 --> 00:30:38,560
Speaker 5: know we're gonna talk.

646
00:30:38,640 --> 00:30:39,880
Speaker 2: You know, we've talked Steelers.

647
00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:42,520
Speaker 5: I think there's also an opportunity here with what we've

648
00:30:42,520 --> 00:30:45,920
Speaker 5: seen with the Bengals. But listen, I like what they've added,

649
00:30:45,960 --> 00:30:48,040
Speaker 5: and we talked about Elijah Moore before. I think he's

650
00:30:48,080 --> 00:30:51,280
Speaker 5: a perfect gadget for the team, just another weapon for Watson.

651
00:30:51,640 --> 00:30:55,680
Speaker 5: I love their offensive line, Cedric Tillman in the third round,

652
00:30:55,720 --> 00:30:59,560
Speaker 5: great red zone threat. I love the rapport I've seen

653
00:30:59,560 --> 00:31:02,400
Speaker 5: with Anjoku. I just think there's an opportunity with a

654
00:31:02,440 --> 00:31:07,080
Speaker 5: Cleveland team. And you think about Zadarias, Smith, Thornhill, McLeod

655
00:31:07,560 --> 00:31:10,080
Speaker 5: and like we've talked about before, Cleveland has a last

656
00:31:10,080 --> 00:31:13,320
Speaker 5: play schedule, so nothing wrong with that. I think there's

657
00:31:13,400 --> 00:31:15,480
Speaker 5: value in Cleveland. I think there's gonna be another team

658
00:31:15,480 --> 00:31:21,080
Speaker 5: in that division, possibly aside from the Bengals, and I think.

659
00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:22,080
Speaker 2: The Browns have an opportunity.

660
00:31:22,760 --> 00:31:27,160
Speaker 1: Browns have not won the division since nineteen eighty nine,

661
00:31:27,200 --> 00:31:30,400
Speaker 1: which is insane when you just think of all the

662
00:31:30,440 --> 00:31:33,400
Speaker 1: things that you know, just we always see division turnover,

663
00:31:33,720 --> 00:31:35,440
Speaker 1: there's always a new team every once in a while.

664
00:31:35,480 --> 00:31:37,160
Speaker 1: The fact that we have not seen them even in

665
00:31:37,160 --> 00:31:39,560
Speaker 1: an eleven and five year they were still not first

666
00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:41,840
Speaker 1: in their own division when they made the playoffs a

667
00:31:41,880 --> 00:31:44,400
Speaker 1: couple of seasons ago. I'm gonna be sticking with the

668
00:31:44,440 --> 00:31:47,440
Speaker 1: AFC North, Evan, but I'm actually again we probably should

669
00:31:47,480 --> 00:31:49,280
Speaker 1: be making long shot bets. I don't know if this

670
00:31:49,360 --> 00:31:51,240
Speaker 1: is really a long shot bet, because it feels like

671
00:31:51,320 --> 00:31:54,280
Speaker 1: the safest bet in that exact same division. I'm taking

672
00:31:54,280 --> 00:31:57,520
Speaker 1: the Steelers to win the division at five to one now.

673
00:31:57,680 --> 00:32:00,080
Speaker 1: They finished nine to eight last year. They haven't had

674
00:31:59,920 --> 00:32:03,200
Speaker 1: a losing record since two thousand and three. They also

675
00:32:03,240 --> 00:32:05,360
Speaker 1: haven't won the division in two seasons. They haven't won

676
00:32:05,400 --> 00:32:08,400
Speaker 1: it since twenty twenty, but historically they lap the field

677
00:32:08,480 --> 00:32:10,720
Speaker 1: like they have twenty four division titles. The next team

678
00:32:10,800 --> 00:32:14,760
Speaker 1: is Sincey with eleven and another factor about the AFC

679
00:32:14,800 --> 00:32:17,120
Speaker 1: North that I find is the history about it because

680
00:32:17,520 --> 00:32:20,360
Speaker 1: stability typically doesn't last in this division. So the Bengals,

681
00:32:20,400 --> 00:32:22,680
Speaker 1: they've won the division in the last two years, but

682
00:32:23,680 --> 00:32:25,560
Speaker 1: it's kind of going against history for them to win

683
00:32:25,560 --> 00:32:27,120
Speaker 1: a third year in a row because no team has

684
00:32:27,120 --> 00:32:29,080
Speaker 1: won it three years in a row since the Steelers

685
00:32:29,120 --> 00:32:31,800
Speaker 1: have done it in ninety four to ninety seven. Now

686
00:32:31,840 --> 00:32:34,240
Speaker 1: you have two factors like TJ. Watt and Mike Tomlin.

687
00:32:34,280 --> 00:32:36,280
Speaker 1: Those are big influences for this pick. I kind of

688
00:32:36,320 --> 00:32:38,200
Speaker 1: talked about TJ. Watt how I was taking him for

689
00:32:38,240 --> 00:32:41,120
Speaker 1: Defensive Player of the Year on our Awards podcast year

690
00:32:41,160 --> 00:32:43,560
Speaker 1: on the Action Network podcast, But it was night and

691
00:32:43,640 --> 00:32:45,400
Speaker 1: day when he came back into the lineup last year.

692
00:32:45,440 --> 00:32:47,400
Speaker 1: They went eight and one in their final nine games

693
00:32:47,440 --> 00:32:50,360
Speaker 1: when he came back, only giving up fourteen points per game.

694
00:32:50,760 --> 00:32:52,680
Speaker 1: I mean, Mike Tomlin, you want to talk about coach

695
00:32:52,680 --> 00:32:55,040
Speaker 1: of the Year. He let a team that was last

696
00:32:55,160 --> 00:32:58,080
Speaker 1: in total passing touchdowns to nine wins. Do you know

697
00:32:58,120 --> 00:33:01,360
Speaker 1: how hard that is to do? It's just making something

698
00:33:01,400 --> 00:33:05,000
Speaker 1: out of nothing is really his specialty. So the Steelers

699
00:33:05,000 --> 00:33:06,520
Speaker 1: to me are one of the few teams that I

700
00:33:06,560 --> 00:33:09,120
Speaker 1: also feel will kind of work for your money, Like

701
00:33:09,160 --> 00:33:10,600
Speaker 1: you know, they're not going to just mail it in

702
00:33:10,760 --> 00:33:13,320
Speaker 1: like after a month, like if if there, if Pikett

703
00:33:13,320 --> 00:33:15,400
Speaker 1: goes down, the ship goes on and they're going to

704
00:33:15,480 --> 00:33:17,680
Speaker 1: keep trying to win for you. So I like the

705
00:33:17,680 --> 00:33:20,840
Speaker 1: Steelers to win the division at five to one.

706
00:33:21,040 --> 00:33:23,720
Speaker 4: I like both of those bets because in that division,

707
00:33:23,880 --> 00:33:27,040
Speaker 4: I have nine point seven to five wins for the

708
00:33:27,080 --> 00:33:29,920
Speaker 4: bottom team and ten point two wins for the top team,

709
00:33:30,280 --> 00:33:33,080
Speaker 4: So it's a half a win to me. That means

710
00:33:33,120 --> 00:33:35,840
Speaker 4: everyone's in play. So that's a division that I would

711
00:33:35,880 --> 00:33:36,360
Speaker 4: play now.

712
00:33:36,440 --> 00:33:37,400
Speaker 3: But I'll also look to.

713
00:33:37,360 --> 00:33:40,280
Speaker 4: Play during the season and maybe even you build a position,

714
00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:42,560
Speaker 4: you get a couple of teams at long numbers before

715
00:33:42,600 --> 00:33:45,240
Speaker 4: a soft spot on the schedule. Cleveland is actually my

716
00:33:45,320 --> 00:33:48,040
Speaker 4: division favorite right now, so I'll sign with Evan on

717
00:33:48,080 --> 00:33:50,760
Speaker 4: this one. But I can believe how high Pittsburgh getting

718
00:33:50,800 --> 00:33:52,440
Speaker 4: up in my rankings too, So I think that's a

719
00:33:52,440 --> 00:33:54,840
Speaker 4: good target from both of you, and I think that's.

720
00:33:54,720 --> 00:33:57,960
Speaker 1: A good strategy Brandon, to monitor the adds as the

721
00:33:58,000 --> 00:33:59,720
Speaker 1: season goes. We know that you're gonna have tons of

722
00:33:59,760 --> 00:34:02,440
Speaker 1: con tent throughout the season to be able to adjust

723
00:34:02,480 --> 00:34:04,640
Speaker 1: and be able to make sure that we build the best,

724
00:34:04,720 --> 00:34:08,560
Speaker 1: most profitable futures portfolio we can have now, gentlemen, more

725
00:34:08,600 --> 00:34:12,120
Speaker 1: memories are made when you're there for live NFL action

726
00:34:12,280 --> 00:34:15,120
Speaker 1: and when you need tickets, our friends at Ticketmaster have

727
00:34:15,160 --> 00:34:18,280
Speaker 1: got you covered. As the official marketplace of the NFL.

728
00:34:18,480 --> 00:34:21,279
Speaker 1: Ticketmaster gives you more ways to find your perfect seat.

729
00:34:21,640 --> 00:34:24,160
Speaker 1: Their interactive seat map gives you a three to sixty

730
00:34:24,200 --> 00:34:26,200
Speaker 1: degree preview of your section to make sure you have

731
00:34:26,320 --> 00:34:29,120
Speaker 1: the best view of those pivotal plays and if your

732
00:34:29,120 --> 00:34:32,600
Speaker 1: plans change. Ticketmaster gives you more flexibility to sell or

733
00:34:32,640 --> 00:34:36,160
Speaker 1: transfer your tickets. Plus mobile tickets make getting in on

734
00:34:36,239 --> 00:34:39,000
Speaker 1: game day a breeze. You can even customize your Ticketmaster

735
00:34:39,040 --> 00:34:42,879
Speaker 1: app to rep your team's colors. Find tickets today at

736
00:34:42,880 --> 00:34:46,600
Speaker 1: ticketmaster dot com slash NFL now. Before we get into

737
00:34:46,600 --> 00:34:49,759
Speaker 1: more picks, quick programming note, The Action Network podcast will

738
00:34:49,800 --> 00:34:54,320
Speaker 1: return with our usual NFL recap episodes first thing every

739
00:34:54,360 --> 00:34:57,120
Speaker 1: Monday morning this season. This year, I'll be joined by

740
00:34:57,160 --> 00:34:59,440
Speaker 1: Evan to go through all the Sunday action, Plus we'll

741
00:34:59,480 --> 00:35:02,560
Speaker 1: have Brandons stopping by for his beloved Hot Reads segment

742
00:35:02,760 --> 00:35:06,360
Speaker 1: as well, and as usual, we have our three other shows,

743
00:35:06,520 --> 00:35:09,920
Speaker 1: NFL Projections are Betting previews with Chris Raybon and Stucky

744
00:35:10,160 --> 00:35:14,080
Speaker 1: and of course our Best Bets episode every Friday morning.

745
00:35:14,280 --> 00:35:17,120
Speaker 1: So lotus to look forward to this NFL season. Here

746
00:35:17,440 --> 00:35:22,560
Speaker 1: at the Action Network podcast, let's talk about team points scored.

747
00:35:22,640 --> 00:35:26,280
Speaker 1: So there's a couple different categories that fall under this umbrella.

748
00:35:26,360 --> 00:35:29,800
Speaker 1: So you have least points scored, least points allowed, most

749
00:35:29,800 --> 00:35:33,600
Speaker 1: points scored, most points allowed. Brandon, you're touching on maybe

750
00:35:33,640 --> 00:35:35,600
Speaker 1: each one of them. Here, I want you to fire

751
00:35:35,760 --> 00:35:38,279
Speaker 1: and let us know what you're thinking for this category.

752
00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:40,440
Speaker 3: First, least points scored.

753
00:35:40,520 --> 00:35:42,560
Speaker 4: So I want a bad offense and I'm gonna go

754
00:35:42,600 --> 00:35:45,160
Speaker 4: back to Chicago. Here gave me the Bears twenty two

755
00:35:45,200 --> 00:35:48,160
Speaker 4: to one. I already dumped on Justin Fields. We don't

756
00:35:48,200 --> 00:35:50,520
Speaker 4: need any more there. I don't really believe in Luke Getzi,

757
00:35:50,680 --> 00:35:53,120
Speaker 4: the coordinator. I'm not sure he's shown a lot. And

758
00:35:53,200 --> 00:35:56,440
Speaker 4: if you look back, remember mid last season, we were

759
00:35:56,520 --> 00:35:59,080
Speaker 4: riding the Bears overs because right around the middle of

760
00:35:59,120 --> 00:36:01,840
Speaker 4: the year, suddenly Fields was looking great. He had the

761
00:36:01,840 --> 00:36:04,600
Speaker 4: breakout coming. But the Bears can stop any once. We're

762
00:36:04,600 --> 00:36:07,440
Speaker 4: getting these like thirty five thirty two sort of games.

763
00:36:07,440 --> 00:36:10,480
Speaker 4: Suddenly those games there were four games right in the

764
00:36:10,520 --> 00:36:12,680
Speaker 4: middle of the year thirty one points a game, all

765
00:36:12,719 --> 00:36:15,360
Speaker 4: in a row that the Beers were scoring. Outside of

766
00:36:15,360 --> 00:36:18,440
Speaker 4: those games, they never topped twenty four the entire season.

767
00:36:18,880 --> 00:36:21,960
Speaker 4: So outside of one month when things went well, they

768
00:36:21,960 --> 00:36:24,120
Speaker 4: averaged fifteen and a half points a game the whole

769
00:36:24,120 --> 00:36:27,040
Speaker 4: rest of the season, which that number would rank dead last.

770
00:36:27,160 --> 00:36:32,280
Speaker 4: So Chicago twenty two to one least points scored. And again, Tyler,

771
00:36:32,320 --> 00:36:33,960
Speaker 4: bag and tell me out on this one, buddy, if

772
00:36:33,960 --> 00:36:35,759
Speaker 4: you get a chance to come and play some quarterback.

773
00:36:35,880 --> 00:36:39,799
Speaker 4: So I'll go for most points allowed and next, and

774
00:36:39,840 --> 00:36:42,279
Speaker 4: that's a new team for me here. I'm gonna take

775
00:36:42,280 --> 00:36:45,400
Speaker 4: the Indianapolis Colts twenty five to one to have a

776
00:36:45,480 --> 00:36:49,120
Speaker 4: defense that is hopefully leaking points all year. The Colts

777
00:36:49,120 --> 00:36:51,440
Speaker 4: were the team Jill, you and I I had to

778
00:36:51,600 --> 00:36:52,920
Speaker 4: text you last night.

779
00:36:53,080 --> 00:36:55,720
Speaker 3: Like near midnight. Where is most points allowed?

780
00:36:55,760 --> 00:36:57,759
Speaker 4: This is the one out of all the points categories

781
00:36:57,800 --> 00:37:00,680
Speaker 4: I want And we founded deep in FanDuel's the sesses

782
00:37:01,080 --> 00:37:03,600
Speaker 4: of their menu there. This is the one I wanted

783
00:37:03,640 --> 00:37:07,000
Speaker 4: here because the Colts were third most points allowed already

784
00:37:07,080 --> 00:37:10,000
Speaker 4: last year. Now I think there's an assumption that they

785
00:37:10,000 --> 00:37:12,680
Speaker 4: will be a little better this year. But my guy,

786
00:37:12,719 --> 00:37:16,120
Speaker 4: Gus Bradley, former North Dakota State coach. I do not

787
00:37:16,280 --> 00:37:18,480
Speaker 4: like him as a defensive coordinator, and they kept him

788
00:37:18,480 --> 00:37:21,920
Speaker 4: around even though Shane Steikin came in, he didn't really like.

789
00:37:22,080 --> 00:37:24,880
Speaker 4: I don't know if I love the mix of coordinators

790
00:37:24,880 --> 00:37:27,879
Speaker 4: on this team. This defense lost a lot. They lost

791
00:37:27,880 --> 00:37:31,640
Speaker 4: Stefan Gilmour at corner. They lost Yannick and Gakaway the

792
00:37:31,920 --> 00:37:34,920
Speaker 4: pass rusher. They lost Bobby Okarake. They're the middle of

793
00:37:34,960 --> 00:37:37,920
Speaker 4: their defense and they were already bad and they lost guys.

794
00:37:38,000 --> 00:37:41,960
Speaker 4: So I think this year they might have the worst

795
00:37:42,000 --> 00:37:45,279
Speaker 4: pass rush in cornerback combo in the NFL. Let me

796
00:37:45,360 --> 00:37:46,920
Speaker 4: read to you the top of the depth chart at

797
00:37:46,960 --> 00:37:48,839
Speaker 4: the cornerback list right now. I'm not gonna have you guess,

798
00:37:48,920 --> 00:37:51,560
Speaker 4: because none of us would have guessed these names their

799
00:37:51,640 --> 00:37:55,239
Speaker 4: lead corner. The only guy who has ever played an

800
00:37:55,360 --> 00:37:58,879
Speaker 4: NFL snap for them at cornerback was an undrafted free

801
00:37:58,880 --> 00:38:01,160
Speaker 4: agent a year ago named Dallas Flowers. He's played one

802
00:38:01,239 --> 00:38:04,400
Speaker 4: hundred and seventy five snaps. Here's the other names. Another

803
00:38:04,400 --> 00:38:07,960
Speaker 4: guy from last year, undrafted Darryl Baker Junior, and then

804
00:38:08,000 --> 00:38:10,480
Speaker 4: a second round pick Juju Brentz and a seventh round

805
00:38:10,480 --> 00:38:11,959
Speaker 4: to pick Jaalen Jones this year.

806
00:38:12,400 --> 00:38:14,760
Speaker 3: Three dudes who have never played a real.

807
00:38:14,600 --> 00:38:17,680
Speaker 4: Snap, and then one hundred and seventy five snaps undrafted

808
00:38:17,680 --> 00:38:20,399
Speaker 4: free agent. That's the secondary. By the way the Colts

809
00:38:20,440 --> 00:38:23,080
Speaker 4: play the Jaguars Week one, I think we know I

810
00:38:23,080 --> 00:38:25,520
Speaker 4: will be on Trevor Lawrence and that one lighting up

811
00:38:25,640 --> 00:38:29,000
Speaker 4: against this defense. So the secret here, the reason I

812
00:38:29,080 --> 00:38:31,160
Speaker 4: wanted to look at this one beyond just bad defense.

813
00:38:31,160 --> 00:38:33,680
Speaker 4: There's a lot of bad defenses out there. The secret

814
00:38:33,760 --> 00:38:37,080
Speaker 4: is I saw a lot of tempo from Sean Steichen

815
00:38:37,280 --> 00:38:42,000
Speaker 4: in the preseason. Offensively, I think tempo is his way

816
00:38:42,040 --> 00:38:44,280
Speaker 4: to try to get his rookie quarterback Anthony and Richardson

817
00:38:44,320 --> 00:38:46,960
Speaker 4: going a little bit, get the ball moving quickly, get

818
00:38:47,280 --> 00:38:49,600
Speaker 4: cut their reeds, get him up to the line so

819
00:38:49,640 --> 00:38:51,160
Speaker 4: he can get more time to give him, you know,

820
00:38:51,239 --> 00:38:52,600
Speaker 4: be in his ear and help him out.

821
00:38:53,160 --> 00:38:55,000
Speaker 3: Tempo means more plays.

822
00:38:55,440 --> 00:38:58,120
Speaker 4: More plays means more time to throw at those terrible

823
00:38:58,200 --> 00:39:00,839
Speaker 4: cornerbacks that no one's ever heard of before. So I'm

824
00:39:00,880 --> 00:39:03,240
Speaker 4: kind of counting on tempo as my secret weapon here,

825
00:39:03,600 --> 00:39:06,480
Speaker 4: hoping that that's something that they used to help the offense.

826
00:39:06,840 --> 00:39:07,879
Speaker 3: And then it goes the other way.

827
00:39:07,920 --> 00:39:10,480
Speaker 4: So I love the Colts there twenty five to one,

828
00:39:11,040 --> 00:39:15,040
Speaker 4: and then I'll stand the division least points allowed. Give

829
00:39:15,040 --> 00:39:18,200
Speaker 4: me my Houston Texans. I told you I had more

830
00:39:18,239 --> 00:39:21,480
Speaker 4: from them seventy to one. Baby, let's go. I think

831
00:39:21,560 --> 00:39:24,840
Speaker 4: this might be my longest one on here. Demiko Ryans

832
00:39:24,960 --> 00:39:27,680
Speaker 4: led this category a year ago. Guys, right, So if

833
00:39:27,680 --> 00:39:29,840
Speaker 4: it's only about the coaching and not the players, I

834
00:39:29,880 --> 00:39:32,640
Speaker 4: already got this one made. It's probably about the players

835
00:39:32,680 --> 00:39:36,960
Speaker 4: a little bit. But Texans last year, second half the season, defensively,

836
00:39:37,040 --> 00:39:40,120
Speaker 4: they were in tenth in dvaa second against the pass,

837
00:39:40,400 --> 00:39:42,680
Speaker 4: and that was without Derek Stingley, who I think is

838
00:39:42,680 --> 00:39:43,720
Speaker 4: a shutdown corner.

839
00:39:44,080 --> 00:39:44,919
Speaker 3: They get him back.

840
00:39:44,960 --> 00:39:47,880
Speaker 4: Now. That was without Will Anderson, the pass rusher. That

841
00:39:47,920 --> 00:39:51,200
Speaker 4: was without Dmiko Ryans. So I don't love this division.

842
00:39:51,960 --> 00:39:54,920
Speaker 4: Jacksonville's offense obviously can put up points with Trevor Lawrence,

843
00:39:54,960 --> 00:39:57,240
Speaker 4: but I don't really think the Colts are Titans offense

844
00:39:57,360 --> 00:40:01,360
Speaker 4: is great, and I have from my quarterback rankings, Texans

845
00:40:01,400 --> 00:40:04,359
Speaker 4: have ten games against bottom eleven quarterbacks.

846
00:40:04,360 --> 00:40:06,400
Speaker 3: For me, that is over half the schedule. Is a

847
00:40:06,440 --> 00:40:07,279
Speaker 3: good way too.

848
00:40:07,360 --> 00:40:10,239
Speaker 4: Even if your defense is good not great, just not

849
00:40:10,320 --> 00:40:12,440
Speaker 4: give up a ton of points. So they played the

850
00:40:12,560 --> 00:40:15,440
Speaker 4: NFC South. Not a lot of good offenses there. They

851
00:40:15,480 --> 00:40:18,719
Speaker 4: played the ANFC North. Lots of good teams that play

852
00:40:18,800 --> 00:40:22,959
Speaker 4: defense and slow, low scoring. Give me a Baltimore six

853
00:40:23,000 --> 00:40:26,080
Speaker 4: to three Houston game, Give me Pittsburgh nine to six.

854
00:40:26,200 --> 00:40:29,640
Speaker 4: Let's go baby Texans. Least points allowed seventy to one.

855
00:40:29,880 --> 00:40:34,319
Speaker 1: Okay, Brandon Anderson noted Houston Texans booster and put that

856
00:40:34,400 --> 00:40:37,239
Speaker 1: in his bio. Now he has the best defense and

857
00:40:37,320 --> 00:40:40,719
Speaker 1: the worst defense coming out of the AFC. For himself,

858
00:40:41,080 --> 00:40:43,480
Speaker 1: I'm gonna move to the NFC East. I'm looking at

859
00:40:43,600 --> 00:40:47,120
Speaker 1: least points allowed, and the team that I immediately want

860
00:40:47,160 --> 00:40:50,239
Speaker 1: to pick for this is the Washington Commanders. They're at

861
00:40:50,280 --> 00:40:53,120
Speaker 1: twenty eight to one for the least points allowed. They

862
00:40:53,120 --> 00:40:56,439
Speaker 1: break seventh and total points allowed last year. They got

863
00:40:56,560 --> 00:40:59,960
Speaker 1: Chase Young back now if he's healthy. For my mind,

864
00:41:00,280 --> 00:41:02,640
Speaker 1: it's the best defensive line in the NFL, and they

865
00:41:02,640 --> 00:41:05,200
Speaker 1: were already a top eight run DEE last season without

866
00:41:05,280 --> 00:41:08,759
Speaker 1: Chase Young. They only have six games versus teams that

867
00:41:08,880 --> 00:41:11,920
Speaker 1: ranked in the top ten in points per game last season,

868
00:41:12,120 --> 00:41:14,920
Speaker 1: and four of those are versus the Eagles and the Cowboys,

869
00:41:15,040 --> 00:41:17,680
Speaker 1: two teams that they played very tough last year, and then,

870
00:41:17,719 --> 00:41:19,840
Speaker 1: of course, they also have six games versus teams that

871
00:41:19,920 --> 00:41:22,560
Speaker 1: ranked in the bottom ten in points per game last year,

872
00:41:22,640 --> 00:41:25,520
Speaker 1: starting with to start the season, they've got the Arizona

873
00:41:25,600 --> 00:41:28,680
Speaker 1: Cardinals and the Broncos that might be twenty points combined.

874
00:41:28,719 --> 00:41:31,359
Speaker 1: You know, if we're seeing based on what we saw

875
00:41:31,440 --> 00:41:33,880
Speaker 1: last year, and they also one of their biggest weaknesses

876
00:41:33,920 --> 00:41:35,880
Speaker 1: defensively is they needed a ton of help in the

877
00:41:35,920 --> 00:41:39,080
Speaker 1: secondary use both their first and second round picks on

878
00:41:39,920 --> 00:41:44,560
Speaker 1: DBS both getting brave reviews in camp. So the Washington Commanders,

879
00:41:44,880 --> 00:41:47,160
Speaker 1: I think at twenty eight to one, could really hold

880
00:41:47,200 --> 00:41:50,120
Speaker 1: some teams down offensively. So that's who I'm liking for

881
00:41:50,160 --> 00:41:53,720
Speaker 1: at least points allowed. Evan, you already hinted earlier about

882
00:41:53,760 --> 00:41:57,000
Speaker 1: how your true feelings about this team. What are you

883
00:41:57,040 --> 00:41:59,279
Speaker 1: looking at for team points scored? Or is at least

884
00:41:59,320 --> 00:42:01,560
Speaker 1: points scored? Most points scored? What are you thinking for

885
00:42:01,600 --> 00:42:02,320
Speaker 1: this category?

886
00:42:02,680 --> 00:42:06,239
Speaker 5: Sure, so it's I'm looking at fewest points scored. And

887
00:42:06,280 --> 00:42:09,640
Speaker 5: again I'll preface this by saying it could just be Arizona,

888
00:42:09,880 --> 00:42:12,640
Speaker 5: so that just that might be your easiest bet for

889
00:42:12,680 --> 00:42:15,719
Speaker 5: this one as well. But I think where the interesting

890
00:42:15,800 --> 00:42:19,319
Speaker 5: value comes in is with the Patriots. They're thirty to one,

891
00:42:20,000 --> 00:42:22,000
Speaker 5: thirty five to one, forty to one. I've seen in

892
00:42:22,000 --> 00:42:25,280
Speaker 5: certain markets, but hardest schedule in the NFL, to be honest,

893
00:42:25,320 --> 00:42:27,960
Speaker 5: I'm fading them anyway, So let's just have a little fun, right,

894
00:42:28,560 --> 00:42:32,800
Speaker 5: twenty seventh in points, sixth in points, seventeenth in points

895
00:42:32,800 --> 00:42:35,799
Speaker 5: since Brady, so you've been about middle of the pack.

896
00:42:35,880 --> 00:42:37,960
Speaker 5: But twenty seventh is nice to see for this bet.

897
00:42:38,480 --> 00:42:41,640
Speaker 5: They didn't fix the offensive line at all in the offseason,

898
00:42:41,640 --> 00:42:43,560
Speaker 5: so that was like the one thing we were hoping

899
00:42:43,960 --> 00:42:46,319
Speaker 5: as a Patriots fan that they would do, but they

900
00:42:46,320 --> 00:42:50,040
Speaker 5: didn't do it. They added Juju and they lost Myers,

901
00:42:50,400 --> 00:42:52,040
Speaker 5: so I don't like that at all. I think that's

902
00:42:52,040 --> 00:42:55,320
Speaker 5: a downgrade, And honestly, I think their good defense helps.

903
00:42:55,920 --> 00:42:58,680
Speaker 5: Now they have no backup if they don't get Zapi back,

904
00:42:58,840 --> 00:43:00,479
Speaker 5: so I think that's something as well.

905
00:43:00,840 --> 00:43:03,200
Speaker 2: And mac Jones is regressed. He hasn't done well in

906
00:43:03,239 --> 00:43:04,680
Speaker 2: terms of your YPA.

907
00:43:05,360 --> 00:43:09,680
Speaker 5: His touchdown interception was down, as completion percentage was down.

908
00:43:09,800 --> 00:43:12,640
Speaker 5: It just wasn't good overall. And they're a good running team,

909
00:43:12,760 --> 00:43:16,000
Speaker 5: so there's the clock's gonna run. Their defense is decent,

910
00:43:16,280 --> 00:43:19,160
Speaker 5: so I think this is an opportunity where the bottom

911
00:43:19,200 --> 00:43:21,719
Speaker 5: could just fall out in New England, especially based off

912
00:43:21,800 --> 00:43:24,920
Speaker 5: the rest of their division and the defenses in their division.

913
00:43:25,160 --> 00:43:27,000
Speaker 2: So I'm gonna go with New England.

914
00:43:27,200 --> 00:43:29,440
Speaker 1: The one thing I will mention too about New England

915
00:43:29,440 --> 00:43:32,240
Speaker 1: why I love this pick is because they had seven

916
00:43:32,400 --> 00:43:35,360
Speaker 1: defensive touchdowns last year. They had four the year before.

917
00:43:35,560 --> 00:43:38,399
Speaker 1: That is not sustainable. Like, they broke the record last

918
00:43:38,480 --> 00:43:41,799
Speaker 1: year with seven touchdowns and for me, when once you

919
00:43:41,920 --> 00:43:44,719
Speaker 1: kind of maybe properly evaluate that, get that down to

920
00:43:44,760 --> 00:43:47,560
Speaker 1: maybe three or four for the season, it's a real

921
00:43:47,680 --> 00:43:49,880
Speaker 1: uphill battle for them to put points on the board.

922
00:43:50,560 --> 00:43:53,279
Speaker 1: So yeah, I love that. Now we're gonna be looking

923
00:43:53,280 --> 00:43:57,560
Speaker 1: as well at markets for last unbeaten team or last

924
00:43:57,640 --> 00:44:01,040
Speaker 1: undefeated team, but also the last windless team. That means

925
00:44:01,120 --> 00:44:04,200
Speaker 1: they start off just looking like trash and they basically

926
00:44:04,280 --> 00:44:08,239
Speaker 1: don't correct it until someway somewhere in the midpoint of

927
00:44:08,280 --> 00:44:11,960
Speaker 1: the season. Brandon, we talked about this team briefly in

928
00:44:12,080 --> 00:44:14,880
Speaker 1: maybe potential worst record. What team do you think is

929
00:44:14,920 --> 00:44:18,200
Speaker 1: going to be the last winless team in the NFL.

930
00:44:18,400 --> 00:44:19,920
Speaker 4: Now, I'm going to be a little choky on this

931
00:44:20,000 --> 00:44:22,080
Speaker 4: one and take one of the favorites here. I'll take

932
00:44:22,080 --> 00:44:25,240
Speaker 4: the Bucks at eleven to one. Look again, the Cardinals

933
00:44:25,280 --> 00:44:27,000
Speaker 4: are the team everyone wants to start with here, But

934
00:44:27,239 --> 00:44:29,320
Speaker 4: just a little math to help us feel better about

935
00:44:29,400 --> 00:44:33,080
Speaker 4: not taking the Cardinals. Arizona plays Washington and the Giants

936
00:44:33,120 --> 00:44:35,439
Speaker 4: the first two weeks. I don't think anyone thinks those

937
00:44:35,480 --> 00:44:38,640
Speaker 4: are impossible games for them to win, right their clue underdogs.

938
00:44:38,960 --> 00:44:41,800
Speaker 4: But if you give just a little math for you, Arizona,

939
00:44:42,160 --> 00:44:44,960
Speaker 4: give them a thirty percent chance to beat Washington, it's

940
00:44:45,000 --> 00:44:47,520
Speaker 4: not very good. Give them a twenty five percent chance

941
00:44:47,560 --> 00:44:49,279
Speaker 4: to be the Giants who just won a playoff game,

942
00:44:49,680 --> 00:44:53,560
Speaker 4: so you're expecting them to lose. The math says there's

943
00:44:53,800 --> 00:44:56,200
Speaker 4: barely a fifty to fifty shot that they lose both

944
00:44:56,200 --> 00:44:58,440
Speaker 4: of those games, fifty three percent that they're own too,

945
00:45:00,200 --> 00:45:02,040
Speaker 4: that they accidentally win a game right out of the

946
00:45:02,040 --> 00:45:03,440
Speaker 4: gates those first two weeks.

947
00:45:03,840 --> 00:45:05,040
Speaker 1: I'm gonna need them too.

948
00:45:04,920 --> 00:45:07,719
Speaker 4: Because right after that their schedule gets rough and they

949
00:45:07,760 --> 00:45:12,560
Speaker 4: are gonna start losing a lot of games. But Tampa Bay, look,

950
00:45:12,600 --> 00:45:14,200
Speaker 4: we don't have to get into why they're not any good.

951
00:45:14,320 --> 00:45:17,080
Speaker 4: Avenue talked about them a bit earlier. Baker Mayfield, Come on,

952
00:45:17,200 --> 00:45:19,799
Speaker 4: we're still doing Baker Mayfield. The whole line is starting

953
00:45:19,840 --> 00:45:22,840
Speaker 4: to fall apart. Ryan Jensen retiring now is a big deal.

954
00:45:23,120 --> 00:45:25,800
Speaker 4: They're a big dropper. And since when I publish offensive

955
00:45:25,840 --> 00:45:29,440
Speaker 4: line rankings, Tampa Bay starts out against Minnesota and Chicago

956
00:45:29,920 --> 00:45:33,400
Speaker 4: similar to Arizona. Those are winnable, those are winnable games.

957
00:45:33,440 --> 00:45:35,239
Speaker 4: I'm gonna need Tampa to get out of here. And

958
00:45:35,320 --> 00:45:38,239
Speaker 4: two because then it's Philadelphia and the Saints. We know

959
00:45:38,280 --> 00:45:41,040
Speaker 4: Tampa doesn't play the Saints. Well, you get a bye week.

960
00:45:41,360 --> 00:45:43,640
Speaker 4: I love to sneaking the early bye week into these

961
00:45:43,640 --> 00:45:46,399
Speaker 4: ones because you can just not do anything and still

962
00:45:46,480 --> 00:45:48,520
Speaker 4: keep my bet alive while the other teams are trying

963
00:45:48,520 --> 00:45:52,560
Speaker 4: to get out of here. And then Detroit, Atlanta, Buffalo, Houston,

964
00:45:52,680 --> 00:45:56,080
Speaker 4: my Houston Texans. A lot of losable games there. The

965
00:45:56,120 --> 00:45:59,040
Speaker 4: other thing about Tampa there is talent on the roster.

966
00:45:59,120 --> 00:46:01,160
Speaker 4: When you look and you're like, I kind of still

967
00:46:01,160 --> 00:46:03,920
Speaker 4: see the super Bowl team, right, But like, here's an example,

968
00:46:03,960 --> 00:46:08,480
Speaker 4: it's a very thin team. There's talent, but nobody behind them. Gentlemen,

969
00:46:08,520 --> 00:46:11,440
Speaker 4: I got trivia for you again here. I want us

970
00:46:11,480 --> 00:46:14,680
Speaker 4: to name three Tampa Bay Buccaneers receivers. I'm gonna start

971
00:46:14,920 --> 00:46:17,200
Speaker 4: with Mike Evan and Chris Godwin. All right, who's got

972
00:46:17,239 --> 00:46:19,600
Speaker 4: a third one for me? Give me another Tampa Bay receiver.

973
00:46:19,880 --> 00:46:21,920
Speaker 1: I'll tell you Scotty Miller.

974
00:46:22,040 --> 00:46:24,440
Speaker 4: Scotty Miller is gone. We're not gonna get these. I'm

975
00:46:24,440 --> 00:46:27,080
Speaker 4: gonna read off. Here's the entire depth chart after Evans

976
00:46:27,080 --> 00:46:32,319
Speaker 4: and Godwin, Trey Palmer, rakeem Jarrett, Devin Tompkins, Jill. I

977
00:46:32,360 --> 00:46:35,120
Speaker 4: smell like a seventy five to one anytime touchdown somewhere

978
00:46:35,120 --> 00:46:38,319
Speaker 4: on that list hitting somewhere this season. But yeah, this

979
00:46:38,360 --> 00:46:41,600
Speaker 4: team is gonna get an injury or two along the way.

980
00:46:42,000 --> 00:46:43,759
Speaker 4: They're kind of a stealth tank team as well. I

981
00:46:43,760 --> 00:46:46,120
Speaker 4: think we could go really sideways there. So eleven to

982
00:46:46,239 --> 00:46:48,440
Speaker 4: one Buccaneers last winless team.

983
00:46:48,800 --> 00:46:50,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, and I share that same stentment. The way that

984
00:46:50,640 --> 00:46:52,600
Speaker 1: I was approaching this, Brandon is I was trying to

985
00:46:52,640 --> 00:46:56,160
Speaker 1: find teams that have the tough opening schedule and the

986
00:46:56,280 --> 00:47:00,480
Speaker 1: losing pedigree. So I sprinkled on two teams. I'm looking

987
00:47:00,560 --> 00:47:03,239
Speaker 1: at the Jets at twenty five to one and the

988
00:47:03,320 --> 00:47:06,560
Speaker 1: Lions at seventy five to one. So I'll get into

989
00:47:06,560 --> 00:47:08,320
Speaker 1: the Jets first. We already talked about it about the

990
00:47:08,320 --> 00:47:11,680
Speaker 1: miss the playoffs start, no team faces have gone really

991
00:47:11,719 --> 00:47:14,400
Speaker 1: like the Jets do to start the year, real possibility

992
00:47:14,440 --> 00:47:17,320
Speaker 1: of going zero to six. Obviously, the great defense will

993
00:47:17,560 --> 00:47:20,200
Speaker 1: keep them in games, but I just worry about their execution,

994
00:47:20,600 --> 00:47:23,560
Speaker 1: the depth, and obviously the offensive line I think is

995
00:47:23,600 --> 00:47:27,319
Speaker 1: still a work in progress. But one of the things

996
00:47:27,360 --> 00:47:29,840
Speaker 1: I'll preface before I talked about the Lions is the Texans.

997
00:47:29,840 --> 00:47:32,439
Speaker 1: So last year, the Texans were the last winless team

998
00:47:32,560 --> 00:47:35,319
Speaker 1: and they won by the by week five they beat

999
00:47:35,360 --> 00:47:38,360
Speaker 1: the Jaguars. The last team to have a losing streak

1000
00:47:38,400 --> 00:47:41,280
Speaker 1: to start a season was the Detroit Lions in twenty

1001
00:47:41,280 --> 00:47:43,200
Speaker 1: twenty one. They went zero to eight to.

1002
00:47:43,160 --> 00:47:43,759
Speaker 3: Start the year.

1003
00:47:44,280 --> 00:47:47,040
Speaker 1: And when you compare the rosters that are coming into

1004
00:47:47,040 --> 00:47:49,920
Speaker 1: this year compared to twenty one, it's not really that

1005
00:47:50,040 --> 00:47:52,880
Speaker 1: much different. Goff is still the quarterback. His home and

1006
00:47:52,880 --> 00:47:56,920
Speaker 1: away splits are nightmarish, like he'll have a three to

1007
00:47:56,920 --> 00:47:59,480
Speaker 1: one touchdown ratio at home and he'll have a one

1008
00:47:59,520 --> 00:48:02,560
Speaker 1: to one on the road, and it's it's pretty awful

1009
00:48:02,600 --> 00:48:04,480
Speaker 1: the way that he has looked in his time as

1010
00:48:04,480 --> 00:48:07,360
Speaker 1: a quarterback. Obviously, we're maybe recency bias of just for

1011
00:48:07,680 --> 00:48:09,680
Speaker 1: remembering the final kind of six to seven weeks of

1012
00:48:09,760 --> 00:48:13,000
Speaker 1: last year. But there's so much hype with this team,

1013
00:48:13,360 --> 00:48:15,640
Speaker 1: and it's like, I feel like people just are taking

1014
00:48:15,640 --> 00:48:19,280
Speaker 1: crazy pills and forgetting what this team was up until

1015
00:48:19,360 --> 00:48:21,799
Speaker 1: Week ten last year. I'd rather find a way to

1016
00:48:21,840 --> 00:48:24,880
Speaker 1: fade it than embrace it. So I'm taking the Detroit

1017
00:48:24,960 --> 00:48:27,839
Speaker 1: Lions at seventy five to one and the Jets at

1018
00:48:27,880 --> 00:48:30,319
Speaker 1: twenty five to one. Evan, are you gonna pile more

1019
00:48:30,360 --> 00:48:31,319
Speaker 1: on the Patriots for this?

1020
00:48:31,920 --> 00:48:32,120
Speaker 2: God?

1021
00:48:32,160 --> 00:48:34,040
Speaker 5: I love that Lions pick. I just want to sorry,

1022
00:48:34,080 --> 00:48:36,960
Speaker 5: I had to stop down. Just that just makes me

1023
00:48:37,360 --> 00:48:38,400
Speaker 5: all tickled inside.

1024
00:48:39,040 --> 00:48:39,879
Speaker 3: Here's my order.

1025
00:48:40,160 --> 00:48:42,359
Speaker 5: I made three bets. I really think there's two bets here.

1026
00:48:42,600 --> 00:48:44,719
Speaker 5: Number one New England. Is it just New England again?

1027
00:48:44,880 --> 00:48:48,840
Speaker 5: Like twenty five to one? Listen to and listen for

1028
00:48:48,880 --> 00:48:51,520
Speaker 5: this bet. For me, this is just about math. Like

1029
00:48:51,800 --> 00:48:54,879
Speaker 5: I did percentages, I looked at games and I came

1030
00:48:54,920 --> 00:48:56,799
Speaker 5: out with a list of about five teams I think

1031
00:48:56,800 --> 00:48:59,760
Speaker 5: make the most sense. But look about New England, Philly,

1032
00:49:00,000 --> 00:49:05,560
Speaker 5: Miami Jets, Dallas Saints, and then Raiders Buffalo, Miami, Washington

1033
00:49:05,600 --> 00:49:08,560
Speaker 5: and then Indian Germany. Like there's not a ton of

1034
00:49:08,600 --> 00:49:11,160
Speaker 5: games there where you're like, oh, yeah, you know, Max's

1035
00:49:11,200 --> 00:49:13,719
Speaker 5: definitely gonna win that one. So I think New England

1036
00:49:13,800 --> 00:49:15,680
Speaker 5: twenty five to one is just a fun bet to

1037
00:49:15,719 --> 00:49:17,719
Speaker 5: get into. And my number two on the list is

1038
00:49:17,719 --> 00:49:21,600
Speaker 5: the Raiders at eighteen to one at Denver at Buffalo, Pittsburgh,

1039
00:49:21,719 --> 00:49:25,359
Speaker 5: Chargers Green Bay. Hopefully New England and the Raiders both

1040
00:49:25,400 --> 00:49:28,560
Speaker 5: winless going into the like Wicks Week six game and

1041
00:49:28,600 --> 00:49:30,160
Speaker 5: we can, you know, maybe cash a ticket.

1042
00:49:30,200 --> 00:49:31,480
Speaker 2: But to me, those are the.

1043
00:49:31,400 --> 00:49:34,040
Speaker 5: Two like fun ones and then the other one who

1044
00:49:34,080 --> 00:49:37,360
Speaker 5: honestly could start ero and four just based on their schedule.

1045
00:49:37,520 --> 00:49:40,640
Speaker 5: But I'm kind of having conflicting uh thoughts in my

1046
00:49:40,680 --> 00:49:41,960
Speaker 5: brain because I do kind of like them.

1047
00:49:41,960 --> 00:49:43,520
Speaker 2: For the division A tiny bit is Tennessee.

1048
00:49:43,760 --> 00:49:47,240
Speaker 5: They're eleven to one, but at New Orleans home against

1049
00:49:47,280 --> 00:49:51,640
Speaker 5: the Chargers at Cleveland and Cincinnati, that could be an

1050
00:49:51,640 --> 00:49:54,520
Speaker 5: oh and four start. So I was looking at Tennessee,

1051
00:49:54,600 --> 00:49:57,080
Speaker 5: but New England to me, number one and number two

1052
00:49:57,080 --> 00:49:58,560
Speaker 5: could be the Raiders at eighteen to one.

1053
00:49:58,680 --> 00:50:01,520
Speaker 1: Well, let's move on from these tracks barrels called NFL team.

1054
00:50:01,560 --> 00:50:03,520
Speaker 1: So let's look at the chalk at the top, and

1055
00:50:03,600 --> 00:50:08,359
Speaker 1: let's look at last undefeated team. And Brandon, you could

1056
00:50:08,360 --> 00:50:09,920
Speaker 1: probably look right at the top of the list and

1057
00:50:10,000 --> 00:50:12,000
Speaker 1: start making a good case for a team here.

1058
00:50:12,520 --> 00:50:14,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, I'm gonna do a chalk pick here and then

1059
00:50:14,560 --> 00:50:16,560
Speaker 4: a long shot. So I'll start with the chalk. I'll

1060
00:50:16,560 --> 00:50:19,000
Speaker 4: just take the Bills eleven to one. They're my number

1061
00:50:19,040 --> 00:50:21,200
Speaker 4: one team overall. I don't need to tell you why.

1062
00:50:21,320 --> 00:50:24,680
Speaker 4: They finished top five last year offense, defense, and special teams.

1063
00:50:24,680 --> 00:50:26,880
Speaker 4: They're the only team like that, and I feel like

1064
00:50:27,400 --> 00:50:30,520
Speaker 4: we've kind of maybe moved on collectively from them, like, ah, well,

1065
00:50:30,600 --> 00:50:32,520
Speaker 4: the Bills kind of missed their chance, and I'm not

1066
00:50:32,560 --> 00:50:34,040
Speaker 4: sure they did. I think they're still in the mix.

1067
00:50:34,400 --> 00:50:36,520
Speaker 4: The other team if it's not Buffalo.

1068
00:50:36,080 --> 00:50:36,560
Speaker 3: That I like.

1069
00:50:37,080 --> 00:50:39,080
Speaker 4: And this is kind of just taking a shot here.

1070
00:50:39,880 --> 00:50:42,160
Speaker 4: I was not really in on the Packers at all.

1071
00:50:42,160 --> 00:50:44,719
Speaker 4: I'm taking Tank gre Bay forty to one, and I

1072
00:50:44,800 --> 00:50:45,600
Speaker 4: was not in on this team.

1073
00:50:45,600 --> 00:50:46,359
Speaker 3: I'm still really not.

1074
00:50:46,440 --> 00:50:49,479
Speaker 4: But to me, it's a more volatile team. I don't

1075
00:50:49,560 --> 00:50:52,399
Speaker 4: really believe in what I see on them. I don't

1076
00:50:52,440 --> 00:50:55,799
Speaker 4: love I rank their defensive coordinator dead last of all coordinators.

1077
00:50:55,920 --> 00:50:58,600
Speaker 4: He has not gotten anything out of this unit. But

1078
00:50:59,160 --> 00:51:02,280
Speaker 4: it's a pretty talent did defense. Actually, it's a defense

1079
00:51:02,280 --> 00:51:05,320
Speaker 4: that could be pretty good. And I don't believe in

1080
00:51:05,400 --> 00:51:08,200
Speaker 4: Jordan Love. But there's no question that he could be good.

1081
00:51:08,239 --> 00:51:11,160
Speaker 4: He's looked pretty good in the preseason, right so I

1082
00:51:11,200 --> 00:51:14,040
Speaker 4: don't believe in what I see. But what if Jordan

1083
00:51:14,080 --> 00:51:15,719
Speaker 4: Love is pretty good? Like I don't know he's going

1084
00:51:15,800 --> 00:51:17,200
Speaker 4: to be an MVP right away. I'm not going to

1085
00:51:17,280 --> 00:51:20,120
Speaker 4: go crazy, But what if he is like the twelfth

1086
00:51:20,160 --> 00:51:22,080
Speaker 4: best quarterback? Could he be as good as a Kirk

1087
00:51:22,160 --> 00:51:25,040
Speaker 4: Cousins or a Derek Carr. I think that's certainly possible.

1088
00:51:25,400 --> 00:51:27,960
Speaker 4: If he is now the defense a little better, it

1089
00:51:28,000 --> 00:51:31,040
Speaker 4: all kind of plays together. The Packers starret out against

1090
00:51:31,040 --> 00:51:33,799
Speaker 4: the Bears, the Falcons, who I like, but you know,

1091
00:51:34,040 --> 00:51:37,799
Speaker 4: maybe we're wrong, The Saints, the Lions, the Raiders. Those

1092
00:51:37,840 --> 00:51:41,040
Speaker 4: are winnable games, then a bye week again early bye week.

1093
00:51:41,120 --> 00:51:45,239
Speaker 4: Can't lose if you're not playing. That's the secret here. Denver, Minnesota,

1094
00:51:45,320 --> 00:51:48,960
Speaker 4: the Rams, these are winnable games. I'll take a chance

1095
00:51:49,000 --> 00:51:51,680
Speaker 4: on the Packers forty to one, just a bet on

1096
00:51:51,840 --> 00:51:57,040
Speaker 4: volatility and frankly, the comedy of betting against Aaron Rodgers

1097
00:51:57,120 --> 00:51:59,760
Speaker 4: sitting over there in this awful schedule for the Jets,

1098
00:51:59,800 --> 00:52:02,360
Speaker 4: while the Packers is a win every single week and

1099
00:52:02,600 --> 00:52:06,200
Speaker 4: Rogers keeps on losing boy, that just makes my heart

1100
00:52:06,239 --> 00:52:08,520
Speaker 4: wim and the fuzziest. So give me the Packers forty

1101
00:52:08,560 --> 00:52:08,879
Speaker 4: to one.

1102
00:52:09,920 --> 00:52:12,880
Speaker 1: Packers is a really interesting choice because I think a

1103
00:52:12,920 --> 00:52:15,560
Speaker 1: lot of people are still not sold on Jordan Love,

1104
00:52:15,640 --> 00:52:19,200
Speaker 1: but the route is there for them to have a

1105
00:52:19,280 --> 00:52:22,560
Speaker 1: nice little run to start the year. And with Josh Allen,

1106
00:52:22,719 --> 00:52:24,520
Speaker 1: really I think it just comes down to turnovers in

1107
00:52:24,520 --> 00:52:27,640
Speaker 1: the Buffalo Bills, because the main thing with him is

1108
00:52:28,040 --> 00:52:29,960
Speaker 1: he likes to take maybe a little too many chances.

1109
00:52:29,960 --> 00:52:33,200
Speaker 1: He's got sixty interceptions and seventy seven career games, so

1110
00:52:33,239 --> 00:52:35,439
Speaker 1: you know there's always one game per year where you'll

1111
00:52:35,480 --> 00:52:37,239
Speaker 1: have three picks and really put his team in a

1112
00:52:37,280 --> 00:52:40,120
Speaker 1: little bit of a hole. Hopefully that is by week ten,

1113
00:52:40,200 --> 00:52:42,400
Speaker 1: week eleven, so Brandon can cash his ticket.

1114
00:52:43,000 --> 00:52:44,200
Speaker 3: But the last.

1115
00:52:44,120 --> 00:52:46,359
Speaker 1: Undefeated team that I'm looking at, I went into the

1116
00:52:46,400 --> 00:52:48,600
Speaker 1: mid section of the odds. I wasn't trying to look

1117
00:52:48,600 --> 00:52:51,200
Speaker 1: for this crazy like, you know, Tampa to have the

1118
00:52:51,239 --> 00:52:53,600
Speaker 1: best record or last undefeated team. But I also wasn't

1119
00:52:53,600 --> 00:52:55,719
Speaker 1: looking at the chalk. I was actually looking in the

1120
00:52:55,800 --> 00:52:58,520
Speaker 1: NFC South, looking at the New Orleans Saints at twenty

1121
00:52:58,520 --> 00:53:02,120
Speaker 1: five to one. Now they have the easiest strength of

1122
00:53:02,120 --> 00:53:05,920
Speaker 1: schedule according to pretty much every publication that does strength

1123
00:53:05,960 --> 00:53:10,399
Speaker 1: of schedule type of analytics. And then we have two

1124
00:53:10,520 --> 00:53:13,280
Speaker 1: games in their opening ten weeks of the season against

1125
00:53:13,320 --> 00:53:15,439
Speaker 1: teams that made the playoffs last year, and they host

1126
00:53:15,440 --> 00:53:17,920
Speaker 1: the Jaguars in week seven, they visit the Vikings in

1127
00:53:17,960 --> 00:53:21,440
Speaker 1: week ten, so there's a potential to go into thereby undefeated.

1128
00:53:21,840 --> 00:53:24,239
Speaker 1: And I really love their receiving group. I talked about

1129
00:53:24,239 --> 00:53:26,279
Speaker 1: how I think Michael Thomas could have a nice little

1130
00:53:26,600 --> 00:53:29,080
Speaker 1: bounced back year looking at him and the comeback Player

1131
00:53:29,080 --> 00:53:31,800
Speaker 1: of the Year market. Their O line is above average,

1132
00:53:31,840 --> 00:53:35,319
Speaker 1: their defense still has some playmakers. So for me, I

1133
00:53:35,400 --> 00:53:37,719
Speaker 1: like the Saints at twenty five to one to be

1134
00:53:37,840 --> 00:53:40,840
Speaker 1: the last undefeated team. Now that's not an endorsement of oh,

1135
00:53:40,920 --> 00:53:42,440
Speaker 1: they're gonna win the super Bowl or they're going to

1136
00:53:42,480 --> 00:53:45,640
Speaker 1: win the NFC. It's more just the fact that they

1137
00:53:45,719 --> 00:53:49,000
Speaker 1: have a pretty easy schedule. So I think an NFC

1138
00:53:49,040 --> 00:53:51,280
Speaker 1: South team is going to be the last undefeated team.

1139
00:53:51,640 --> 00:53:53,120
Speaker 1: Do you also feel that way, Evan?

1140
00:53:53,560 --> 00:53:55,600
Speaker 2: I do. And it's funny going into this exercise.

1141
00:53:55,680 --> 00:53:58,239
Speaker 5: My bets for the Bills fun thank you, Brandon, the

1142
00:53:58,320 --> 00:54:01,239
Speaker 5: Saints awesome, and my bet right now, which I'll talk

1143
00:54:01,239 --> 00:54:04,160
Speaker 5: about which is the Falcons. So only four teams have

1144
00:54:04,239 --> 00:54:07,400
Speaker 5: home home games in their first two games, Atlanta, Denver,

1145
00:54:07,520 --> 00:54:10,279
Speaker 5: New England, Pittsburgh, and I think Atlanta actually has like

1146
00:54:10,560 --> 00:54:15,440
Speaker 5: the best advantage and number going forward, so Detroit, Jacksonville

1147
00:54:15,480 --> 00:54:20,399
Speaker 5: and London, Houston, Washington. You know, the no by thing

1148
00:54:20,640 --> 00:54:22,400
Speaker 5: is a little bit tough because I think what Brandon

1149
00:54:22,400 --> 00:54:25,240
Speaker 5: said is actually really key here. By means you can't lose,

1150
00:54:25,280 --> 00:54:27,719
Speaker 5: so that early by, while it might be a disadvantage

1151
00:54:27,719 --> 00:54:30,400
Speaker 5: for other bets, probably an advantage for this bet. But

1152
00:54:30,920 --> 00:54:33,480
Speaker 5: I liked Atlanta earlier. I think they could start a

1153
00:54:33,520 --> 00:54:35,480
Speaker 5: little hot at least two to zero and get rolling.

1154
00:54:35,520 --> 00:54:37,840
Speaker 5: So I don't mind the number. But I think Buffalo

1155
00:54:38,239 --> 00:54:41,840
Speaker 5: at the top there, given Allen's good early you know,

1156
00:54:41,960 --> 00:54:44,800
Speaker 5: Buffalo really not being looked at. I think that number

1157
00:54:44,840 --> 00:54:47,440
Speaker 5: does hold value and probably should be a little shorter.

1158
00:54:48,000 --> 00:54:50,240
Speaker 1: Yeah, And if you're hearing the sirens in the background,

1159
00:54:50,280 --> 00:54:53,759
Speaker 1: that's somebody who is just fainted with the value coming

1160
00:54:53,760 --> 00:54:58,600
Speaker 1: from Evan right now on Atlanta. Now, Arthur Smith probably

1161
00:54:58,600 --> 00:55:01,319
Speaker 1: doesn't have a chance to see the get a pink

1162
00:55:01,320 --> 00:55:03,520
Speaker 1: slip at this point this year. But one of the

1163
00:55:03,560 --> 00:55:06,560
Speaker 1: markets that I love to look at is first coach fired,

1164
00:55:06,640 --> 00:55:09,239
Speaker 1: because it really just turns into a shit show for

1165
00:55:09,280 --> 00:55:12,200
Speaker 1: a team, and there's some real value out there I

1166
00:55:12,239 --> 00:55:14,879
Speaker 1: think that you could get and guys, you know, at

1167
00:55:14,880 --> 00:55:16,920
Speaker 1: the top of the list, it's a three way co

1168
00:55:17,120 --> 00:55:21,680
Speaker 1: favorite tie between Josh McDaniels with the Raiders, Mike McCarthy

1169
00:55:21,719 --> 00:55:25,279
Speaker 1: with the Cowboys, and Todd Bowles with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers,

1170
00:55:25,320 --> 00:55:28,439
Speaker 1: all teams that we talked about. Cowboys not so much,

1171
00:55:28,480 --> 00:55:30,719
Speaker 1: but we talked about the Raiders potentially being at the

1172
00:55:30,719 --> 00:55:35,040
Speaker 1: bottom of the standing. Same thing with Tampa. Brandon. We

1173
00:55:35,120 --> 00:55:37,359
Speaker 1: already talked about the Jets and just you know what

1174
00:55:37,400 --> 00:55:39,600
Speaker 1: they could be this year. But it doesn't sound like

1175
00:55:39,640 --> 00:55:41,520
Speaker 1: you're two enthused right now with their coach.

1176
00:55:41,840 --> 00:55:44,880
Speaker 4: Well, it's really not even about the coaching here. But yeah, spoiler,

1177
00:55:44,920 --> 00:55:46,480
Speaker 4: I'm going to take the Jets here. I'm going to

1178
00:55:46,520 --> 00:55:49,879
Speaker 4: take Robert Sala thirty three to one. I actually like him.

1179
00:55:49,920 --> 00:55:50,560
Speaker 3: I like the guy.

1180
00:55:50,640 --> 00:55:53,200
Speaker 4: But look, we've done the Jets a few times along

1181
00:55:53,200 --> 00:55:55,920
Speaker 4: the way. Here that opening schedule, Jill, you broke it

1182
00:55:55,960 --> 00:55:58,760
Speaker 4: down nicely. It is brutal Buffalo at Dallas, New England,

1183
00:55:58,960 --> 00:56:02,239
Speaker 4: Kansas City, Denver, Philly. Five of those six games are

1184
00:56:02,239 --> 00:56:05,120
Speaker 4: in national television because we gotta have Aaron Rodgers in

1185
00:56:05,160 --> 00:56:08,320
Speaker 4: our lives. So if the Jets aren't good right away,

1186
00:56:08,760 --> 00:56:12,200
Speaker 4: they're gonna be very publicly not good. They're gonna be

1187
00:56:12,200 --> 00:56:14,560
Speaker 4: the team we all watched on hard knocks. We all

1188
00:56:14,600 --> 00:56:17,600
Speaker 4: got excited and then we watched them just fall on

1189
00:56:17,640 --> 00:56:19,200
Speaker 4: their face. You know what that reminds me of a

1190
00:56:19,239 --> 00:56:21,800
Speaker 4: little bit. Reminds me of the Denver Broncos and Russell

1191
00:56:21,800 --> 00:56:24,600
Speaker 4: Wilson a year ago. You go bring in the new quarterback,

1192
00:56:24,920 --> 00:56:26,960
Speaker 4: you put them on Monday Night Football Week one against

1193
00:56:27,000 --> 00:56:29,600
Speaker 4: his old team, and then he poops the bed and

1194
00:56:29,640 --> 00:56:31,400
Speaker 4: they go on to one and start losing all the

1195
00:56:31,440 --> 00:56:33,960
Speaker 4: time right out of the gates. I don't really think

1196
00:56:34,080 --> 00:56:36,400
Speaker 4: Robert sala Is gonna be the problem here if it

1197
00:56:36,440 --> 00:56:39,040
Speaker 4: goes sideways. But if they're two and four, one and

1198
00:56:39,080 --> 00:56:41,839
Speaker 4: five after that stretch, By the way, bye week. Love

1199
00:56:41,880 --> 00:56:44,240
Speaker 4: to fire my coach during a bye week. That's another

1200
00:56:44,239 --> 00:56:45,440
Speaker 4: one where the bye week matters.

1201
00:56:45,480 --> 00:56:45,680
Speaker 3: Here.

1202
00:56:46,520 --> 00:56:49,320
Speaker 4: Who's gonna get the blame. It's not be Aaron Rodgers.

1203
00:56:49,520 --> 00:56:52,040
Speaker 4: It's not be any of Aaron Rodgers' buddies. So you

1204
00:56:52,080 --> 00:56:55,560
Speaker 4: can't blame Nathaniel Hackett, the offensive coordinator. You can't cut

1205
00:56:55,560 --> 00:56:57,760
Speaker 4: the receivers he brought in and all of his buddies

1206
00:56:57,800 --> 00:57:00,440
Speaker 4: on the roster. Robert sala is the.

1207
00:57:00,360 --> 00:57:02,920
Speaker 3: Head coach and basically runs the defense.

1208
00:57:03,400 --> 00:57:03,839
Speaker 2: He's it.

1209
00:57:04,120 --> 00:57:06,239
Speaker 3: He's the only one left to blame in New York

1210
00:57:06,280 --> 00:57:10,120
Speaker 3: if it goes badly. He's the only guy. And guess

1211
00:57:10,160 --> 00:57:11,600
Speaker 3: who's going to have the finals? Say?

1212
00:57:11,680 --> 00:57:15,160
Speaker 4: Is it Robert sala or mister Aaron Rodgers? On where

1213
00:57:15,160 --> 00:57:16,680
Speaker 4: this team is headed the rest of the season. Can

1214
00:57:16,720 --> 00:57:19,600
Speaker 4: you guys tell I love my guy Aaron Rodgers The

1215
00:57:19,680 --> 00:57:23,080
Speaker 4: Vikings fan in me. Really, this is a comedic bet

1216
00:57:23,360 --> 00:57:27,840
Speaker 4: against the Jets and against Aaron Rodgers. Hard Knocks coaches

1217
00:57:28,200 --> 00:57:31,160
Speaker 4: have been fired three times in the last decade alone,

1218
00:57:31,400 --> 00:57:33,800
Speaker 4: So just because we saw the team get the hype

1219
00:57:33,800 --> 00:57:36,680
Speaker 4: doesn't mean they're not out of this Cleveland twenty eighteen,

1220
00:57:37,120 --> 00:57:40,640
Speaker 4: the Rams in twenty seventeen, Atlanta twenty fourteen, and maybe

1221
00:57:41,080 --> 00:57:44,600
Speaker 4: we got the Hard Knocks in season now our lonesome loser,

1222
00:57:44,640 --> 00:57:47,680
Speaker 4: Cliff Kingsbury, the last coach to be on Hard Knocks,

1223
00:57:47,720 --> 00:57:49,360
Speaker 4: got fired at the end of the season. He's gonna

1224
00:57:49,400 --> 00:57:53,680
Speaker 4: make it like five episodes. Robert sala enjoy your television time,

1225
00:57:53,760 --> 00:57:55,360
Speaker 4: You're out of here thirty three to one.

1226
00:57:56,600 --> 00:58:00,520
Speaker 1: Robert Salo was my pick last year, and unfortune he

1227
00:58:00,920 --> 00:58:04,600
Speaker 1: kept those receipts and ended up winning some games. And

1228
00:58:04,960 --> 00:58:07,040
Speaker 1: I had an egg in my face for picking the

1229
00:58:07,120 --> 00:58:09,840
Speaker 1: Jets even though they finished seven and nine for the season.

1230
00:58:10,480 --> 00:58:12,000
Speaker 1: But for me, the way that I look at this

1231
00:58:12,040 --> 00:58:16,400
Speaker 1: category is I pay attention to ownership and the ownership

1232
00:58:16,440 --> 00:58:19,560
Speaker 1: history of how they handle coaching. Do they fire at

1233
00:58:19,560 --> 00:58:20,760
Speaker 1: the end of the year, are they more of a

1234
00:58:20,760 --> 00:58:23,120
Speaker 1: mid season fire kind of team, and how do they

1235
00:58:23,320 --> 00:58:27,360
Speaker 1: handle failure and ineptness? And obviously I think that's why

1236
00:58:27,400 --> 00:58:30,240
Speaker 1: Josh mcdaniels's favorite, because of the Davis family and their

1237
00:58:30,880 --> 00:58:35,400
Speaker 1: kind of erratic behavior sometimes with how they treat their employees.

1238
00:58:35,440 --> 00:58:39,000
Speaker 1: But the guy that I'm picking is Riverboat. Ron rivera

1239
00:58:39,600 --> 00:58:42,880
Speaker 1: new ownership. They didn't pick him as coach. He hasn't

1240
00:58:42,920 --> 00:58:45,360
Speaker 1: had a winning season as a coach since twenty seventeen.

1241
00:58:45,720 --> 00:58:48,439
Speaker 1: They just hired Eric the Enemy from the Kansas City Chiefs,

1242
00:58:48,480 --> 00:58:52,200
Speaker 1: who's been on pretty much every team's radar as far

1243
00:58:52,200 --> 00:58:54,720
Speaker 1: as interviews go, for a coaching position, so he could

1244
00:58:54,760 --> 00:58:57,000
Speaker 1: take over if it's not working out. They still have

1245
00:58:57,120 --> 00:58:59,080
Speaker 1: Jack del Rio for a defensive coordinator. I'm not his

1246
00:58:59,200 --> 00:59:02,760
Speaker 1: biggest fan, but same time he is competent. But the

1247
00:59:02,760 --> 00:59:04,600
Speaker 1: one thing I would talk about is the ownership group

1248
00:59:04,720 --> 00:59:06,840
Speaker 1: of the Washington Commanders. Now it's the same group that

1249
00:59:06,920 --> 00:59:10,160
Speaker 1: owns the Philadelphia seventy six ers and the New Jersey Devils.

1250
00:59:10,160 --> 00:59:12,680
Speaker 1: And if you go look at each team's head coach

1251
00:59:12,760 --> 00:59:16,920
Speaker 1: history since they took over, many coaches were fired mid season,

1252
00:59:17,160 --> 00:59:19,880
Speaker 1: and like you look at the Devils, it's not pretty.

1253
00:59:20,080 --> 00:59:23,440
Speaker 1: I mean Doc Rivers got canned, Brett Brown got canned.

1254
00:59:23,680 --> 00:59:25,520
Speaker 1: You know, those guys were at the end of the year,

1255
00:59:25,560 --> 00:59:27,560
Speaker 1: but you could tell that they were playoff teams. So

1256
00:59:27,880 --> 00:59:29,320
Speaker 1: you know, you've got to at least let them see

1257
00:59:29,320 --> 00:59:32,160
Speaker 1: it out. The only other candidate that I was considering

1258
00:59:32,200 --> 00:59:34,640
Speaker 1: for this, but then what I was kind of I

1259
00:59:34,640 --> 00:59:36,240
Speaker 1: had to go look at it just to make sure

1260
00:59:36,840 --> 00:59:40,040
Speaker 1: was Kevin Stefanski with the Browns because of the just

1261
00:59:40,080 --> 00:59:43,160
Speaker 1: the overall coaching turnover we've seen since Jimmy Haslam has

1262
00:59:43,160 --> 00:59:45,600
Speaker 1: bought this team. But when you actually go look at

1263
00:59:45,640 --> 00:59:48,360
Speaker 1: all of the coaching history for this team, for the

1264
00:59:48,400 --> 00:59:51,040
Speaker 1: five coaches, even if they were inapt were fired at

1265
00:59:51,040 --> 00:59:53,480
Speaker 1: the end of the season. Only Hugh Jackson was fired

1266
00:59:53,520 --> 00:59:55,600
Speaker 1: mid season because he was in the middle of a

1267
00:59:55,640 --> 00:59:59,959
Speaker 1: three and twenty five stretch with sixteen stretch with the Brown.

1268
01:00:00,200 --> 01:00:03,880
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna go with Ron Rivera to unfortunately not

1269
01:00:04,000 --> 01:00:05,000
Speaker 1: make it through the season.

1270
01:00:06,120 --> 01:00:06,720
Speaker 3: Evan, are you.

1271
01:00:06,680 --> 01:00:08,800
Speaker 1: Feeling the Ron Rivera pick or is there another one

1272
01:00:08,800 --> 01:00:09,440
Speaker 1: you're looking at?

1273
01:00:09,640 --> 01:00:11,800
Speaker 5: I love it and I think he nailed it all around.

1274
01:00:11,840 --> 01:00:14,560
Speaker 5: I think the new Josh Harris willing to make a change.

1275
01:00:14,640 --> 01:00:16,840
Speaker 5: I think the Howell comments about like only finding a

1276
01:00:16,880 --> 01:00:21,080
Speaker 5: quarterback in week eighteen defending the enemy Ali oddly early

1277
01:00:21,160 --> 01:00:23,280
Speaker 5: in camp was very odd. I just think the whole

1278
01:00:23,280 --> 01:00:26,520
Speaker 5: dichotomy of those two together just don't seem to be fitting.

1279
01:00:26,680 --> 01:00:29,000
Speaker 5: And I think at any moment there could be a flip,

1280
01:00:29,000 --> 01:00:31,720
Speaker 5: because I don't know if Riverboat Ron is really, you know,

1281
01:00:32,240 --> 01:00:34,360
Speaker 5: doing it these days, and I feel like most people

1282
01:00:34,360 --> 01:00:36,720
Speaker 5: think he's kind of passed his time. So I think

1283
01:00:36,720 --> 01:00:39,520
Speaker 5: the Rivera one's good. I think sal is a great one.

1284
01:00:39,600 --> 01:00:41,160
Speaker 5: You know, if you saw the last Hard Knocks, he

1285
01:00:41,240 --> 01:00:43,880
Speaker 5: was in the car with the Sopranos episode, so whacking

1286
01:00:43,960 --> 01:00:48,280
Speaker 5: him at some point. But the other one, and I

1287
01:00:48,400 --> 01:00:50,200
Speaker 5: have to say this because I do have, you know,

1288
01:00:50,280 --> 01:00:50,880
Speaker 5: put a few.

1289
01:00:50,720 --> 01:00:52,880
Speaker 1: Bucks on it, but I keep a brand on point.

1290
01:00:53,040 --> 01:00:54,880
Speaker 2: Belichick at one hundred to one is just fun.

1291
01:00:54,960 --> 01:00:58,240
Speaker 6: Oh and I also think and I also think this

1292
01:00:58,280 --> 01:01:02,520
Speaker 6: for one reason, like the lying issues between Belichick and

1293
01:01:02,600 --> 01:01:05,880
Speaker 6: Craft are something that can't be talked about enough, especially

1294
01:01:05,920 --> 01:01:08,080
Speaker 6: with this type of bet, especially if the season doesn't

1295
01:01:08,080 --> 01:01:09,480
Speaker 6: go right, especially if it goes.

1296
01:01:09,400 --> 01:01:13,320
Speaker 5: Really really wrong, really really quickly. I'm here, I'll do

1297
01:01:13,400 --> 01:01:14,520
Speaker 5: it one.

1298
01:01:14,800 --> 01:01:15,320
Speaker 3: On that one.

1299
01:01:15,440 --> 01:01:18,080
Speaker 4: Make sure that you check check the book and check

1300
01:01:18,160 --> 01:01:21,000
Speaker 4: the wording on how this one goes. Because my only

1301
01:01:21,040 --> 01:01:24,800
Speaker 4: hesitation there is would they fire quote unquote Belichick or

1302
01:01:24,840 --> 01:01:26,600
Speaker 4: would they mutually.

1303
01:01:26,160 --> 01:01:27,320
Speaker 3: Agreed to part ways?

1304
01:01:27,440 --> 01:01:30,760
Speaker 4: Or would Belichick retire to spend time with his family

1305
01:01:30,920 --> 01:01:34,440
Speaker 4: or like, like, I think that the ownership things J'll mentioned,

1306
01:01:34,800 --> 01:01:36,800
Speaker 4: I wouldn't be shocked. I think the case you said,

1307
01:01:36,840 --> 01:01:39,680
Speaker 4: and the schedule and the mac Jones and everything, would

1308
01:01:39,720 --> 01:01:42,640
Speaker 4: they fire him? And how does the book greade it?

1309
01:01:42,840 --> 01:01:44,680
Speaker 4: I would want to pay attention to that, so be

1310
01:01:44,760 --> 01:01:45,400
Speaker 4: careful there.

1311
01:01:45,960 --> 01:01:49,080
Speaker 1: All right, Well, according to Evan, Belichick will not make

1312
01:01:49,160 --> 01:01:54,400
Speaker 1: it by we eight at this stage, which could be

1313
01:01:54,480 --> 01:01:57,640
Speaker 1: considered a true djen bet. But Brandon I think is

1314
01:01:57,640 --> 01:01:59,080
Speaker 1: going to one up us here, and he is going

1315
01:01:59,160 --> 01:02:01,240
Speaker 1: to take it to another level. This is his true

1316
01:02:01,640 --> 01:02:07,560
Speaker 1: sickos NFL Multiverse lightning round, Brandon, take it away for us.

1317
01:02:07,640 --> 01:02:09,600
Speaker 1: Tell us, what are some of the sickest bets that

1318
01:02:09,680 --> 01:02:11,440
Speaker 1: you've looked at that you're considering betting?

1319
01:02:11,640 --> 01:02:13,600
Speaker 4: Yeah, I had five more here to wrap us up.

1320
01:02:13,680 --> 01:02:15,680
Speaker 4: Just wrap it a fire. You're gonna have to shop

1321
01:02:15,760 --> 01:02:17,600
Speaker 4: round these one w You necessarily be at every book

1322
01:02:17,680 --> 01:02:21,000
Speaker 4: but multiverse because you, guys, just imagine, what if the

1323
01:02:21,000 --> 01:02:23,880
Speaker 4: season goes sideways? What if the weird thing happens. Because

1324
01:02:23,880 --> 01:02:25,960
Speaker 4: it's the NFL, it's that not for a long weird

1325
01:02:25,960 --> 01:02:29,640
Speaker 4: stuff happens. So I got two weird outcomes for teams

1326
01:02:29,680 --> 01:02:31,840
Speaker 4: that we know are pretty good. Give me the forty

1327
01:02:31,920 --> 01:02:35,600
Speaker 4: nine ers under alternate under seven and a half wins

1328
01:02:35,720 --> 01:02:36,840
Speaker 4: plus six fifty.

1329
01:02:37,160 --> 01:02:37,600
Speaker 2: Wow.

1330
01:02:38,000 --> 01:02:41,720
Speaker 4: Kyle Shanahan has coached six seasons for the forty nine Ers.

1331
01:02:42,080 --> 01:02:45,040
Speaker 4: In three of them, they made the NFC Championship Game.

1332
01:02:45,440 --> 01:02:46,120
Speaker 3: In the other.

1333
01:02:46,040 --> 01:02:49,680
Speaker 4: Three they win six and ten or worse. They either

1334
01:02:50,040 --> 01:02:52,160
Speaker 4: are really good or really bad.

1335
01:02:52,280 --> 01:02:52,720
Speaker 3: That's it.

1336
01:02:52,760 --> 01:02:55,960
Speaker 4: That's the only way in between. Defensive line is getting worse.

1337
01:02:56,280 --> 01:02:59,000
Speaker 4: The defense is probably gonna regress they've got bad corners,

1338
01:02:59,000 --> 01:03:00,959
Speaker 4: and Dimiko has gone on there and now I'm big

1339
01:03:00,960 --> 01:03:04,560
Speaker 4: on Jamiko Ryans guys, And what about quarterback? What if

1340
01:03:04,600 --> 01:03:06,720
Speaker 4: this blck party thing just doesn't work out? What if

1341
01:03:06,720 --> 01:03:09,240
Speaker 4: they made the wrong choice there or the elbows not ready?

1342
01:03:09,560 --> 01:03:12,800
Speaker 4: What if Sam Darnold can't step in. All we've heard

1343
01:03:12,800 --> 01:03:15,960
Speaker 4: from every analyst all off season is anyone can play

1344
01:03:16,040 --> 01:03:19,320
Speaker 4: quarterback for the forty nine ers. Guess what other than

1345
01:03:19,400 --> 01:03:22,320
Speaker 4: Jimmy Garoppolo and maybe Purdy. That is not what the

1346
01:03:22,400 --> 01:03:25,880
Speaker 4: numbers say. Everyone else who's played quarterback, including my guy

1347
01:03:25,920 --> 01:03:29,640
Speaker 4: Trey Wance, can't do anything for Kyle Shanahan. So if

1348
01:03:29,680 --> 01:03:34,160
Speaker 4: it's not party, it could go very sideways under seven

1349
01:03:34,160 --> 01:03:35,360
Speaker 4: and a half wins. I think if you want to

1350
01:03:35,360 --> 01:03:37,760
Speaker 4: fade the Niners, you've got to really fade the Niners.

1351
01:03:38,040 --> 01:03:39,840
Speaker 4: So this is my way of doing it. Plus six

1352
01:03:39,840 --> 01:03:42,920
Speaker 4: p fifty on that one. Another one if it goes badly.

1353
01:03:43,280 --> 01:03:46,080
Speaker 4: We talked about the tough Division. Give me the Buffalo

1354
01:03:46,160 --> 01:03:50,000
Speaker 4: Bills to finish dead last in their division nine to one.

1355
01:03:50,760 --> 01:03:52,920
Speaker 4: I like this one because you don't even really need

1356
01:03:52,920 --> 01:03:55,640
Speaker 4: the bottom to totally fall out. They could finish last

1357
01:03:55,640 --> 01:03:58,600
Speaker 4: in the division at nine to eight right, because well

1358
01:03:58,720 --> 01:04:00,720
Speaker 4: not if Evan's right about the peak. But I think

1359
01:04:00,720 --> 01:04:03,760
Speaker 4: the Patriots are pretty solid. I think the Jets probably

1360
01:04:03,800 --> 01:04:08,000
Speaker 4: are solid much despite my hatred for them. Here, Miami

1361
01:04:08,040 --> 01:04:12,720
Speaker 4: hopefully good if Tua stays healthy. Buffalo, they're a good team.

1362
01:04:12,960 --> 01:04:14,800
Speaker 4: I think that they're gonna win a lot of games.

1363
01:04:14,840 --> 01:04:18,040
Speaker 4: But is their universe a ten percent one that's what

1364
01:04:18,080 --> 01:04:21,040
Speaker 4: this plus nine hundred is where they just caught some

1365
01:04:21,120 --> 01:04:23,680
Speaker 4: bad luck in close games, they lose a couple close ones,

1366
01:04:23,760 --> 01:04:26,720
Speaker 4: or frankly, is their universe where Josh Allen got hurt

1367
01:04:26,760 --> 01:04:29,480
Speaker 4: for a while and he's he's the guy, he's the

1368
01:04:29,520 --> 01:04:32,760
Speaker 4: whole offense, and if he's out, that's open and play here.

1369
01:04:33,080 --> 01:04:34,920
Speaker 4: So they could only even have to do this by

1370
01:04:34,960 --> 01:04:36,920
Speaker 4: a couple of games here in that division and still

1371
01:04:37,160 --> 01:04:39,520
Speaker 4: even have a pretty good season end up last in

1372
01:04:39,560 --> 01:04:42,760
Speaker 4: the division. So I looked at miss playoffs for them,

1373
01:04:42,760 --> 01:04:44,280
Speaker 4: and it wasn't tasty enough. So I had to go

1374
01:04:44,320 --> 01:04:47,280
Speaker 4: a little further and last in the division Atlanta him

1375
01:04:47,280 --> 01:04:50,720
Speaker 4: make the conference finals ten to one odds, Avan, you

1376
01:04:50,760 --> 01:04:53,480
Speaker 4: and I are both on Atlanta. If they actually are

1377
01:04:53,520 --> 01:04:55,240
Speaker 4: a one or two seed, you might only have to

1378
01:04:55,280 --> 01:04:57,520
Speaker 4: win a home game. You were in the conference finals.

1379
01:04:57,800 --> 01:04:59,920
Speaker 4: I'm out after that. I don't want to make this

1380
01:05:00,000 --> 01:05:02,200
Speaker 4: super Bowl. I don't want a Super Bowl ticket. I

1381
01:05:02,240 --> 01:05:05,320
Speaker 4: don't need it. But win some regular season games, make

1382
01:05:05,320 --> 01:05:07,800
Speaker 4: it to the conference finals ten to one, and then

1383
01:05:07,840 --> 01:05:11,560
Speaker 4: I got a couple of rookie quarterbacks for you, Anthony Richardson,

1384
01:05:11,920 --> 01:05:15,120
Speaker 4: to lead all quarterbacks in rushing yards, not just rookies,

1385
01:05:15,280 --> 01:05:20,080
Speaker 4: all quarterbacks. Last year only one guy finished over eight

1386
01:05:20,200 --> 01:05:23,160
Speaker 4: hundred yards, and that was justin fields. You heard what

1387
01:05:23,280 --> 01:05:25,880
Speaker 4: I think about justin fields. The guy can run, no doubt,

1388
01:05:26,320 --> 01:05:28,440
Speaker 4: but can you stay on the field? Can he be healthy?

1389
01:05:29,160 --> 01:05:32,000
Speaker 4: I think Richardson's going to be a great runner, Shane Steichen.

1390
01:05:32,320 --> 01:05:35,000
Speaker 4: We saw what he did with Jalen Hurts. Richardson's gonna

1391
01:05:35,040 --> 01:05:36,960
Speaker 4: run a lot, He's gonna scramble a lot. So the

1392
01:05:37,000 --> 01:05:39,840
Speaker 4: one thing I know he can do, he's not getting benched.

1393
01:05:40,160 --> 01:05:42,760
Speaker 4: He's an absolute tank, so he's less likely to get

1394
01:05:42,840 --> 01:05:45,840
Speaker 4: hurt than a guy like justin the fields. Presumably eight

1395
01:05:45,920 --> 01:05:47,880
Speaker 4: hundred yards is fifty yards a game. You're telling me

1396
01:05:47,920 --> 01:05:50,000
Speaker 4: Anthony Richardson's not going to pass fifty yards a game.

1397
01:05:50,080 --> 01:05:51,840
Speaker 3: Running. It's the thing he does. It's the one thing

1398
01:05:51,880 --> 01:05:52,160
Speaker 3: we know.

1399
01:05:52,160 --> 01:05:54,400
Speaker 4: He does, so it's kind of a head to he

1400
01:05:54,520 --> 01:05:56,960
Speaker 4: bet on the fields. Seven to one is too long

1401
01:05:57,000 --> 01:05:59,240
Speaker 4: for me, So I love that one. And then the

1402
01:05:59,320 --> 01:06:03,600
Speaker 4: truest taco as bet of them all, Clayton Tune. You

1403
01:06:03,720 --> 01:06:07,080
Speaker 4: heard of Clayton Tune, guys, Clayton Tune to lead all

1404
01:06:07,320 --> 01:06:11,880
Speaker 4: rookies in passing yards twenty eight to one. Look, the

1405
01:06:11,920 --> 01:06:14,360
Speaker 4: Cardinals have not named a starting quarterback for Week one.

1406
01:06:14,840 --> 01:06:18,560
Speaker 4: They just cut Colt McCoy. It could be Josh Dobbs

1407
01:06:18,560 --> 01:06:20,480
Speaker 4: who they traded for. Could be that Dobbs starts and

1408
01:06:20,520 --> 01:06:22,960
Speaker 4: gets benched at halftime, or could just beat Clayton toon

1409
01:06:23,040 --> 01:06:25,680
Speaker 4: as the starter. Maybe they just like their guy, maybe

1410
01:06:25,720 --> 01:06:27,560
Speaker 4: they hate him, but they want to lose games, so

1411
01:06:27,560 --> 01:06:30,320
Speaker 4: they want to play Clayton Tune, Like, why not throw

1412
01:06:30,360 --> 01:06:33,840
Speaker 4: the rookie out here if he starts Week one? We

1413
01:06:33,920 --> 01:06:36,200
Speaker 4: got three other rookie quarterbacks. It's not gonna be Richard

1414
01:06:36,200 --> 01:06:38,640
Speaker 4: saying he's not gonna put up big passing yards. Why

1415
01:06:38,720 --> 01:06:42,400
Speaker 4: can't Clayton Tune have as many yards passing as Bryce

1416
01:06:42,520 --> 01:06:43,800
Speaker 4: Young or as c J.

1417
01:06:43,960 --> 01:06:44,400
Speaker 3: Stroud.

1418
01:06:44,880 --> 01:06:46,760
Speaker 4: The Texans are good, like I think they're probag Gonna

1419
01:06:46,760 --> 01:06:48,000
Speaker 4: have to pass a lot, So I don't know if

1420
01:06:48,000 --> 01:06:49,480
Speaker 4: I love him putting up a big number.

1421
01:06:49,760 --> 01:06:50,960
Speaker 3: Bryce Young's a little dude.

1422
01:06:50,960 --> 01:06:52,360
Speaker 4: He could get hurt. I don't know if I like

1423
01:06:52,360 --> 01:06:55,720
Speaker 4: the Panthers anyway. The Cardinals suck. They want to lose.

1424
01:06:55,760 --> 01:06:58,400
Speaker 4: The defense is terrible. They're gonna bleed points all year.

1425
01:06:58,760 --> 01:07:01,840
Speaker 4: You pass when you're behind all game. Why can't Clayton

1426
01:07:01,920 --> 01:07:05,360
Speaker 4: Tune play a little quarterback if he actually were the

1427
01:07:05,400 --> 01:07:07,680
Speaker 4: Week one starter, I think this would be like five

1428
01:07:07,720 --> 01:07:09,840
Speaker 4: to one, six to one, give me twenty eight to

1429
01:07:09,880 --> 01:07:12,720
Speaker 4: one Clayton Tune all rookie passing yards leader.

1430
01:07:13,120 --> 01:07:13,400
Speaker 2: Man.

1431
01:07:13,920 --> 01:07:16,240
Speaker 5: I love the Richardson bet. I think it's seven to one.

1432
01:07:16,280 --> 01:07:18,680
Speaker 5: There's complete value there, especially because they're gonna give him time.

1433
01:07:18,720 --> 01:07:20,280
Speaker 5: He's gonna get a lot of snaps. He's gonna be

1434
01:07:20,320 --> 01:07:22,920
Speaker 5: there all year. So I like that one. The other

1435
01:07:22,960 --> 01:07:26,880
Speaker 5: bet that I sprinkled on with that Clayton Tune concept

1436
01:07:27,120 --> 01:07:29,040
Speaker 5: eight and O'Connell is like one hundred and fifty to one.

1437
01:07:29,120 --> 01:07:31,280
Speaker 5: If things go really bad with the Raiders, I don't

1438
01:07:31,280 --> 01:07:33,040
Speaker 5: think Hoyer is going to be any answer.

1439
01:07:33,120 --> 01:07:34,880
Speaker 2: They might take a look at him. So that was

1440
01:07:34,920 --> 01:07:36,560
Speaker 2: something I looked at. If you think the Raiders do

1441
01:07:36,640 --> 01:07:37,400
Speaker 2: really bad this year.

1442
01:07:37,840 --> 01:07:40,280
Speaker 1: All right. So we have given out a ton of

1443
01:07:40,320 --> 01:07:43,520
Speaker 1: bets on this show. Today, I'm gonna give out my

1444
01:07:43,880 --> 01:07:46,960
Speaker 1: favorite ones, my best bets for everything that we just

1445
01:07:46,960 --> 01:07:49,920
Speaker 1: talked about. I still love the Steelers to win the

1446
01:07:49,920 --> 01:07:52,480
Speaker 1: division at five to one, and I still love the

1447
01:07:52,560 --> 01:07:55,080
Speaker 1: Jets to miss the playoffs at plus one ten. Brandon,

1448
01:07:55,120 --> 01:07:57,240
Speaker 1: can you narrow it down and give us two or

1449
01:07:57,280 --> 01:08:00,000
Speaker 1: three of your favorites that you let us know them?

1450
01:08:00,080 --> 01:08:00,240
Speaker 3: Yeah?

1451
01:08:00,440 --> 01:08:02,440
Speaker 4: You know, I love my Texans, So give me the

1452
01:08:02,480 --> 01:08:05,440
Speaker 4: Texans eleven to one. Worst the first Division. I'm already

1453
01:08:05,440 --> 01:08:08,120
Speaker 4: on the app multi units on that one. Give me

1454
01:08:08,240 --> 01:08:10,960
Speaker 4: Dallas fourteen to one. Most wins. Those are the two

1455
01:08:11,040 --> 01:08:12,880
Speaker 4: that I love the most. And then one of those

1456
01:08:12,920 --> 01:08:15,040
Speaker 4: I just mentioned at the end. I like that Richardson

1457
01:08:15,080 --> 01:08:18,440
Speaker 4: bet a lot seven to one. Most rushing yards among quarterbacks.

1458
01:08:18,479 --> 01:08:21,280
Speaker 4: I think those are my top three plays here, all right,

1459
01:08:21,320 --> 01:08:22,440
Speaker 4: Evan Finish.

1460
01:08:22,240 --> 01:08:25,120
Speaker 5: Aside, Yeah, Raiders worst record, I think is a great bet.

1461
01:08:25,200 --> 01:08:27,639
Speaker 5: I'm buying Atlanta, I'm selling New England.

1462
01:08:28,040 --> 01:08:30,880
Speaker 2: That's it. I mean, across the people, there's tons of action.

1463
01:08:31,040 --> 01:08:32,719
Speaker 2: But those are the three concepts.

1464
01:08:32,760 --> 01:08:35,599
Speaker 1: Let's go there, beautiful, all right, Well, that'll do it

1465
01:08:35,640 --> 01:08:38,360
Speaker 1: for us. I want to thank Brandon Anderson and Evan

1466
01:08:38,400 --> 01:08:42,240
Speaker 1: Abrams for joining me on the Action Network podcast presented

1467
01:08:42,280 --> 01:08:45,880
Speaker 1: by FanDuel, and to all the listeners and betters. Mops.

1468
01:09:01,640 --> 01:09:06,160
Speaker 5: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1469
01:09:06,200 --> 01:09:08,960
Speaker 5: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1470
01:09:09,000 --> 01:09:12,200
Speaker 5: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler