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Speaker 1: Welcome to the Favorites, the podcast presented by BET three

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Speaker 1: six five. We are part of the Action Network. I

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Speaker 1: am Chad Milnin, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: Today is our NFL Super Bowl Best Bets Episode, our

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Speaker 1: final episode before Super Bowl fifty eight. In this episode,

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Speaker 1: Simon and I will run down our final list of

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Speaker 1: bets for the Big Game because, as our road pal

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Speaker 1: Colin Coward, who I saw last night, likes to say,

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Speaker 1: there's a sea of money out there.

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Speaker 2: There's a sea of money out there.

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Speaker 1: Later in the show, we'll be joined once again and

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Speaker 1: as always by Action Network Director of Research Evan Abrams,

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Speaker 1: who we use the data and research to help us

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Speaker 1: set the stage one last time. Also, I'd be real

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Speaker 1: a miss if I did not think and if Simon

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Speaker 1: and I did not thank all of our viewers and

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Speaker 1: listeners for fueling our explosive growth this football season. No joke,

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Speaker 1: I'm not gonna lie me and Mett Mitchell. Simon a

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Speaker 1: little bit less so because he's super confident, had a

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Speaker 1: lot of ogita and concern about what this is was

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Speaker 1: going to look like with going on YouTube live new shows,

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Speaker 1: and it was a fantastic experience fueled by everybody who

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Speaker 1: came along for the ride. Quick programming note after today's show,

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Speaker 1: the Favorites will release new episodes on Tuesdays only for

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Speaker 1: the next couple of months, mainly focused on NFL offseason,

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Speaker 1: NFL free agency, NFL Draft, how we are going to

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Speaker 1: bet those numbers for the draft, how we are thinking

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Speaker 1: about NFL free agency, how that is impacting our opinions

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Speaker 1: of teams moving forward. We'll probably have a contest or

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Speaker 1: to be sure to stick around. Let's bring in my

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Speaker 1: co host, my companion, Mike and Padre my BFF professional

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Speaker 1: better Simon Hunter et oh.

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Speaker 3: Sim Happy Super Bowl Week, Chad brother.

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Speaker 1: I'm in Vegas. I'm in a hotel room in Vegas.

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Speaker 1: You're wearing your Tombolo shirt. Thanks to Michael Sard from

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Speaker 1: Tombolo for sending us both uh Tompolo Tombolo swag, which

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Speaker 1: we love and it's so cool. Simon, I know you

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Speaker 1: were in Vegas last week. You lived in Vegas. I

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Speaker 1: when I was writing The Odds, you know, twenty five

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Speaker 1: years ago, the book that got me into the sports

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Speaker 1: betting biz, I practically lived here. I'm staying at the

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Speaker 1: Mirage Hotel because one of the main characters in the book.

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Speaker 1: Joe Lupo is now the CEO at the Mirage Hotel.

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Speaker 1: Thanks Joe hooking me up with a sweet, sweet sweet.

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Speaker 1: But as I was driving around the city yesterday, it's

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Speaker 1: just astonishing to me. I wonder if you feel the

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Speaker 1: same way like the Super Bowl is in Vegas. This

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Speaker 1: is an entirely different experience for someone like me who

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Speaker 1: has been coming to Vegas for years, knowing there was

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Speaker 1: always something a little illicit when it came to its

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Speaker 1: connection to the sports world.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I just never never would have believed it. I

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Speaker 4: always believe there was too much mafia money and that

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Speaker 4: the sports teams like the NFL and NBA and all

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Speaker 4: these different leagues were scared of Las Vegas.

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Speaker 3: But we've seen the change.

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Speaker 4: Right as soon as they got a football team in

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Speaker 4: the hockey team, the wheels were in motion, you know.

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Speaker 4: League glized sports meting obviously has changed the demographic a lot,

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Speaker 4: but still the NFL is so scared of every little thing.

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Speaker 3: I never thought they would do it.

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Speaker 4: But I guess the joke is, if they can survive

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Speaker 4: or Super Bowl in Miami, Vegas, isn't that bad, right?

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Speaker 3: It's really not.

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Speaker 4: So that's a fair point that everyone pointing that out,

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Speaker 4: but I love it.

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Speaker 3: It's it's like.

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Speaker 4: You said, Chad, when you go there, it's different because

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Speaker 4: you've been there and you've lived there, and it's just

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Speaker 4: if you've never been there and you're going for your

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Speaker 4: first time for the super Bowl, you were probably gonna

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Speaker 4: be blown away.

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Speaker 3: But honestly, I think you know this. You can go

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Speaker 3: on a random march and it.

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Speaker 4: Feels like super Bowl is always there, right, There's always

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Speaker 4: stuff going on, there's always some big events. But me

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Speaker 4: and you talk before coming on seeing them set up

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Speaker 4: all these stages, like in front of these hotels and

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Speaker 4: in all these different areas, it's like it really does

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Speaker 4: sinking where it's like, oh my god, the super Bowl

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Speaker 4: is in Las Vegas, Like this is really bizarre. So

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Speaker 4: it's it's definitely changed my mindset of never say never

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Speaker 4: because I never never thought there would be a super

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Speaker 4: Bowl in Las Vegas, and this disproves that. It's like,

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Speaker 4: if there's money to be made, the NFL will go there.

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Speaker 1: Well, that's number one. Number two, you know. When I

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Speaker 1: came out and did the the subtitle of the odds

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Speaker 1: was one season three Gamblers and the Death of their

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Speaker 1: Las Vegas. The idea was, it was nineteen ninety nine,

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Speaker 1: two thousand and these guys, if you want to be

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Speaker 1: a professional better, if you want to do what you did,

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Speaker 1: you could really only do it legitimately from Las Vegas.

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Speaker 1: You had to you had to go to the books,

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Speaker 1: have runners, bring your cash drive all over town. They

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Speaker 1: were starting to be able to do accounts through the

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Speaker 1: phones and stuff like that, but offshore was creeping in

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Speaker 1: right and now all of a sudden, what's happened is

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Speaker 1: sports betty became legal. Nevada is not even top three

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Speaker 1: when it comes to handle overall for sports betting. It's

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Speaker 1: dominated by New York, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, other places. And

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Speaker 1: the death of their Las Vegas really translated to the

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Speaker 1: birth of Las Vegas as a legitimate sports city. Because

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Speaker 1: now you got the Raiders, you got the Golden Knights,

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Speaker 1: You're getting the A's. They'll be an NBA team, They

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Speaker 1: do NBA Summer League here. So what everything is lost

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Speaker 1: from being sort of the mecca of sports betting, it's

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Speaker 1: gained in being a world class professional sports city. I

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Speaker 1: think it's probably a better trade off for them because

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Speaker 1: he can still gamble with the books if you want to.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and I think they cleaned up the image right

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Speaker 4: like Vegas what you when you saw, I never saw,

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Speaker 4: which is that was truly the last of the old

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Speaker 4: school in Vegas. Like you know, I knew plenty of people.

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Speaker 4: I knew Doyle Brunson. If you don't know Duyle Brunson,

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Speaker 4: he's a really famous poker player. Hearing him talk about

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Speaker 4: the old days in Vegas, it was truly the wild West.

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Speaker 4: And things start changing obviously through the eighties and the nineties.

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Speaker 4: You saw that last right, that last age where the Internet,

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Speaker 4: to me is what changed Vegas completely.

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Speaker 3: Yes.

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Speaker 4: Now the joke is if you go to Vegas and

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Speaker 4: your sports better, it's like stepping back in time because

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Speaker 4: they are now behind these other states just because they're

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Speaker 4: slow to change. I mean, Vegas is slow to change,

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Speaker 4: so they are getting better if you're a sports better.

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Speaker 4: But it's still you know, I know plenty of guys

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Speaker 4: who unless you're over the age of fifteen, you've lived

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Speaker 4: in Vegas for thirty or twenty years. I know plenty

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Speaker 4: of people have left, but there's new age people moving there,

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Speaker 4: like our own doctor Nick. There's always gonna be these young,

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Speaker 4: hungry guys who want to move there because it is

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Speaker 4: a life chat, right, I mean, it is the life

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Speaker 4: of living in that city.

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Speaker 3: We joked about you.

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Speaker 4: Once you're in Vegas, there's nothing around you for about

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Speaker 4: an hour and a half like you're in Vegas, right,

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Speaker 4: So if you're moving there, you're moving there because you

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Speaker 4: want to gamble.

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Speaker 1: Right Well, speaking of betting, I will not make a

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Speaker 1: single bet in Vegas because I'm not running around to

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Speaker 1: different books, right. It's too much of a pain to

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Speaker 1: deposit in books than go bet on your phone. I'll

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Speaker 1: just wait until I'm back in Connecticut. We're going to

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Speaker 1: talk about all the bets that we've made so far

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Speaker 1: for this game, and our best bets will finalize our

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Speaker 1: decisions on the side. As a reminder of the favorites.

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Speaker 1: Podcast is presented by Bet three sixty five who are

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Speaker 1: now live in the beautiful States of Indiana and Era Arizona.

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Speaker 1: Bet three six five doesn't do ordinary That's why you

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Speaker 1: three sixty five. Must be twenty one or older and

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Speaker 1: present in Arizona, Colorado, Indiana, Iowa, Louisiana, New Jersey, Ohio, Virginia,

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Speaker 1: or eighteen and older in Kentucky. Gambling problem called one

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Speaker 1: eight hundred gambler or one eight hundred bets off in

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Speaker 1: Iowa terms. Conditions restrictions apply, all right. Like I said,

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Speaker 1: whole menu of bets that we are actually making for

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Speaker 1: the game. These could be sides, props, totals, anything we

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Speaker 1: are thinking about betting for the game. That is what

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Speaker 1: we're going to talk about right now, Simon. We got

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Speaker 1: to start with the side, because you know, I'm walking

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Speaker 1: around the media center yesterday and it's so funny go

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Speaker 1: in the media center and everybody wants to know which

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Speaker 1: side are you betting on? And I had a long

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Speaker 1: conversation with our old friend Tom Tolbert. Tom Tolbert, who

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Speaker 1: has been on the podcast many times, who played in

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Speaker 1: the NBA broadcaster for many years, hosts a very popular

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Speaker 1: afternoon show at K and BR in San Francisco. Huge

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Speaker 1: gambler loves to talk about gambling, So I'm on CANBR yesterday.

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Speaker 1: I saw Tom and one on the show and we're

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Speaker 1: talking about the side, and I'm like, here's the thing,

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Speaker 1: I don't know that there's that grade of an edge

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Speaker 1: in the side. The best to make aren't the sides

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Speaker 1: at the Super Bowl? Like, and to Tom's point, was,

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Speaker 1: you're right, like, if I looked at this game as

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Speaker 1: a week five game, I might not even bet it

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Speaker 1: because I might not find an edge. So we're going

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Speaker 1: to talk about the side. Are you still feeling very

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Speaker 1: strongly about the Chiefs?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, but I think you're right where it's like, it's

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Speaker 4: not like there's crazy value here.

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Speaker 3: I made the line on one and a half. We're

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Speaker 3: getting how a point.

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Speaker 4: But I told you if if, even if my model

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Speaker 4: wanting me to take the forty nine ers, I just

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Speaker 4: wasn't gonna do it. And you know, I've I've heard

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Speaker 4: plenty of people's opinions like you have all week. I mean,

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Speaker 4: it's never ending the amount of opinions you hear super

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Speaker 4: Bowl week. But yeah, it feels like anybody you talk

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Speaker 4: to right, Any Joe schmol you talk to, they like

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Speaker 4: the Chiefs, and any professional you talk to, they like

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Speaker 4: the forty nine Ers, and it's deja vu with the Ravens.

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Speaker 3: The Ravens Chiefs game, isn't it.

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Speaker 4: It's just like it felt like every pro I talked

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Speaker 4: to loved the Ravens, and it's I feel like they're

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Speaker 4: just dug in at this point and even trying to

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Speaker 4: reason with these guys about why they're.

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Speaker 3: Still trying to fade Mahomes. I get where they're coming from.

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Speaker 4: It's like, on paper, they're a great team, this forty

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Speaker 4: nine Ers team Rock Party has ascended. I mean, this

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Speaker 4: guy has been incredible, especially on this playoff run. You know,

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Speaker 4: I totally get their perspective, but nothing to make me

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Speaker 4: budg Chad, like I mean you joked about it. Mahomes

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Speaker 4: has cost me a lot of money this playoffs. And

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Speaker 4: again I'm not chasing on this like this is only

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Speaker 4: one of my bigger bets on the side because, like

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Speaker 4: you said, there's no real value. And that's also something

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Speaker 4: we haven't really talked about. I mean, we'll dive into

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Speaker 4: it maybe this offseason, but the Super Bowl has shifted

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Speaker 4: since they've legalized sports betting, right, the last big number

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Speaker 4: we had was pre legalization. I think the Eagles were

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Speaker 4: opened at six and a half, closed at four and

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Speaker 4: a half.

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Speaker 3: Then what do we happen?

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Speaker 1: That was the first year of legalization and so it

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Speaker 1: hadn't gone wide yet. I remember because when we launched

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Speaker 1: Action and I remember going on radio shows all over

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Speaker 1: the country talking about how everyone who's a professional better

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Speaker 1: is going to bet the Eagles. They are the side

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Speaker 1: to bet in this game, and you're right. Ever since then,

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Speaker 1: it's tightened up.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, and like same with I mean, we had a

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Speaker 4: big spread the SINCI game, and obviously that spread didn't matter, right.

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Speaker 4: It opened at three and a half. A bunch of

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Speaker 4: pro slammed the Rams at three and a half, miss

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Speaker 4: structure point the number of lands on three. So we

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Speaker 4: have seen them come down though, like longer gone are

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Speaker 4: the days of right the Giants ore they had ten

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Speaker 4: twelve point dog against the Patriots that undefeated season, and

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Speaker 4: you know, the Patriots their first Super Bowl with Belichick,

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Speaker 4: I believe they were a ten or eleven point dog

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Speaker 4: to that Rams team. I don't think we ever get

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Speaker 4: back to that, Chad, I really don't where it's like

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Speaker 4: the books know how it is nowadays, where it's like,

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Speaker 4: there we go from our guy Evan fifteen straight super

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Speaker 4: Bowls under five points. So clearly there's there's been a

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Speaker 4: change herehere. We just haven't had these big spreads like

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Speaker 4: we did in the early mid two thousands all through

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Speaker 4: the nineties and eighties. The books just know it's not

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Speaker 4: worth the risk, especially when you have all these future liability,

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Speaker 4: which we talked about earlier in the week where some

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Speaker 4: of these books are getting tons of Chiefs money, they

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Speaker 4: still need the Chiefs because the liability is so heavy.

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Speaker 3: On the forty nine ers futures.

250
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Speaker 4: That's why people are like, why don't you worried about

251
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Speaker 4: don't you like to back with the books and.

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Speaker 3: Everything like that. I'm like, from book to book, everyone,

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Speaker 3: it's gonna be very different, especially when it comes to

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Speaker 3: Super Bowl. I mean, Chad knows this. The fat money's

255
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Speaker 3: flying in this weekend.

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Speaker 4: We've already seen a hand full of five hundred k

257
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Speaker 4: one million dollar bets right on this forty nine Ers team.

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Speaker 3: People keep asking, is that professional money? Is that Billy Walters?

259
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Speaker 4: No, No, that is not okay, that's that's your local

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Speaker 4: player where they when they put online it's a local

261
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Speaker 4: respected player that's eleven. That's that's a that's a money

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Speaker 4: maker for these different sports books. So yeah, it's it's

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Speaker 4: pretty interesting. The biggest bets we've seen so far have

264
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Speaker 4: coming to the forty nine ers, But I don't think

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Speaker 4: it's that shocking. Me and you talked about we think

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Speaker 4: they are the better team. We just think the Mahomes

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Speaker 4: and the Spags combo is pretty deadly. Like that defense,

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Speaker 4: we keep talking about it. It really is to me

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Speaker 4: what I keep getting behind, and we keep talking about

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Speaker 4: the different looks you can give to this forty nine

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Speaker 4: ers team defensively to make them struggle like we've seen

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Speaker 4: the last couple of weeks that the forty iris defense

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Speaker 4: has struggled against the past. So I really did try

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Speaker 4: to give us a fair look because I didn't want

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Speaker 4: to just bet bet Mahomes just because I was so

276
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Speaker 4: upset about losing money against it. I really wanted to

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Speaker 4: dive into it, and you know, coming out the other

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Speaker 4: it's like, I do feel confident about the Chiefs team.

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Speaker 4: I feel confid about the Chief's number and if this

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Speaker 4: is a close, tight game in the fourth quarter, which

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Speaker 4: mean you expect it will be. I feel pretty good, Chad,

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Speaker 4: and that's why I feel confident betting this where it's like,

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Speaker 4: even if we do lose this bet, which we know

284
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Speaker 4: is always a possibility, especially on a tight number like this,

285
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Speaker 4: I'm not going to kick myself where if I take party,

286
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Speaker 4: I will be kicking myself for six months going against

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Speaker 4: my homes Andy Reid in this spot.

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Speaker 3: So I totally get why this is such a tough decision.

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Speaker 4: Why, I mean, you joke, why it's like, yeah, this

290
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Speaker 4: isn't the greatest value ever. I'm not slamming the table

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Speaker 4: saying you have to take this one side just because

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Speaker 4: it's so tight. And that's just the toughest part here

293
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Speaker 4: where it's like I wish I could come on here

294
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Speaker 4: and be super confident and be like no, no, no,

295
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Speaker 4: this is exactly what's going to happen. This is why

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Speaker 4: you're playing the side. But both these teams are so

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Speaker 4: evenly matched. I totally get why people are taking the

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Speaker 4: other side. It's just you can't take talk me off

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Speaker 4: the chiefs. I just love taking the Chiefs, especially at

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Speaker 4: a plus number.

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Speaker 1: So, speaking of big bets, big money and all that

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Speaker 1: rolling in when I went to check in yesterday at

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Speaker 1: the Mirage, there's like a special sort of room you

304
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Speaker 1: go to check in if you're on a certain like

305
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Speaker 1: VIP status, which I normally wouldn't be because but Joe

306
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Speaker 1: is hooking me up. I go to this room, right

307
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Speaker 1: and when I check in, this is the kind of

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Speaker 1: room I'm in. They automatically ask you what kind of

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Speaker 1: line of credit would you like me to open for you?

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Speaker 1: It's not even like will you be opening a line

311
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Speaker 1: of credit to what kind of line of credit? And

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Speaker 1: then literally as I'm standing there, a dude walks in.

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Speaker 1: He's like, I've already opened two fifty, I'm down one hundred.

314
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Speaker 1: I need I need to extend it another hundred. He

315
00:15:44,280 --> 00:15:46,440
Speaker 1: had been there for thirty five minutes, he hadn't even

316
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Speaker 1: checked into his room, and he was already down one

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Speaker 1: hundred grand from the line of credit had set up

318
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Speaker 1: before he got to the hotel. A couple of important stats,

319
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Speaker 1: But that's the kind of money that's going to be

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Speaker 1: flowing in this weekend in Vegas for these games, for

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Speaker 1: a Super Bowl in Vegas, and that will have an

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Speaker 1: impact on the line for sure. Right now, seventy percent

323
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Speaker 1: of spread tickets are on Kansas City. Sixty eight percent

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Speaker 1: is the record for the Super Bowl. Only two teams

325
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Speaker 1: had sixty six percent or higher. Twenty nineteen New England

326
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Speaker 1: they covered against the Rams, twenty fourteen Denver lost to Seattle. Also,

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Speaker 1: teams that are getting fifty five percent or more of

328
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Speaker 1: tickets as an underdog four to zero against the spread

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Speaker 1: in the Super Bowl. The record for underdogs getting tickets

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Speaker 1: on the spread is sixty percent, which was two thousand

331
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Speaker 1: and eight Giants who pulled the upset. So just a

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Speaker 1: couple more hints and trends. The other thing I talked

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Speaker 1: about with Tolbert yesterday. I thought it was interesting, and

334
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Speaker 1: this has come up a lot. You look at the

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Speaker 1: Niners over a seventeen game season, better metrics, better team overall,

336
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Speaker 1: better performance. You look at, say, the Chiefs the past

337
00:17:10,160 --> 00:17:17,120
Speaker 1: five weeks, better metrics, dominant team, better performance against much, much,

338
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Speaker 1: much better competition. As a handicapper, as a bookmaker, how

339
00:17:23,000 --> 00:17:26,439
Speaker 1: much do you account or change your numbers at this

340
00:17:26,640 --> 00:17:30,080
Speaker 1: point in the year when one team is outperforming the

341
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Speaker 1: other team so much versus taking to account the entirety

342
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Speaker 1: of the season.

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Speaker 4: Honestly, nothing really changed that much other than I gave

344
00:17:38,520 --> 00:17:42,040
Speaker 4: an imaginary extra point to Mahomes No Joe, like, I

345
00:17:42,119 --> 00:17:44,080
Speaker 4: just gave him another point of value because it's just

346
00:17:45,200 --> 00:17:47,560
Speaker 4: you can't it. Really, my model just doesn't get it.

347
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Speaker 4: And that was my issue. It's just like I can't

348
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Speaker 4: get over how special he is. And it's just the

349
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Speaker 4: Tom Brady effect, right, It's just these guys they break

350
00:17:56,960 --> 00:17:59,479
Speaker 4: the models in and you have to adjust, and then

351
00:17:59,480 --> 00:18:01,320
Speaker 4: you factor in what you talked about where it's like,

352
00:18:02,280 --> 00:18:05,600
Speaker 4: even if you go back twenty games, spags defense, this

353
00:18:05,640 --> 00:18:06,480
Speaker 4: is one of my favorite stats.

354
00:18:06,480 --> 00:18:07,919
Speaker 3: I'm stealing from someone else. I wish I could give

355
00:18:07,920 --> 00:18:08,280
Speaker 3: them credit.

356
00:18:08,359 --> 00:18:12,560
Speaker 4: But twenty games, his defense is only giving up twenty

357
00:18:12,600 --> 00:18:16,679
Speaker 4: one points or more three times. So clearly, even with

358
00:18:16,760 --> 00:18:19,240
Speaker 4: a very young defense, this guy is getting the best

359
00:18:19,240 --> 00:18:21,199
Speaker 4: out of it. And then you just talk about we

360
00:18:21,320 --> 00:18:25,520
Speaker 4: go through this playoffs. Their last three games, they shut

361
00:18:25,600 --> 00:18:27,880
Speaker 4: down Miami, one of the best offense we've ever seen. Okay,

362
00:18:28,119 --> 00:18:32,720
Speaker 4: factor in weather, Okay, no problem. They shut down Josh Allen,

363
00:18:32,840 --> 00:18:35,560
Speaker 4: who is in god Mo. Like again, if Diggs could

364
00:18:35,560 --> 00:18:37,800
Speaker 4: figure out how to catch again, maybe it's a different story.

365
00:18:37,800 --> 00:18:40,640
Speaker 4: But that's what happened, right. They made the place. There

366
00:18:40,640 --> 00:18:43,840
Speaker 4: were drops, but one of the best quarterbacks you've ever seen.

367
00:18:44,320 --> 00:18:48,520
Speaker 4: They stopped them the MVP on the road, Lamar, they

368
00:18:48,520 --> 00:18:50,960
Speaker 4: made him look stick functional, they made him go back

369
00:18:51,000 --> 00:18:54,280
Speaker 4: to revert back to being a scared rookie out of Louisville,

370
00:18:54,320 --> 00:18:57,040
Speaker 4: Like he just looked completely lost, not the Lamar we've

371
00:18:57,080 --> 00:19:01,360
Speaker 4: seen for years. So it's like, I totally get where

372
00:19:01,400 --> 00:19:02,679
Speaker 4: people are coming from trying to be on the four

373
00:19:02,760 --> 00:19:04,280
Speaker 4: other side. But I just keep going back to these

374
00:19:04,320 --> 00:19:08,680
Speaker 4: games and watching the film. It is glaring me watch

375
00:19:08,760 --> 00:19:12,440
Speaker 4: the film that you know, people keep bringing up this week, Well,

376
00:19:12,520 --> 00:19:13,920
Speaker 4: Purty's new Russian ability.

377
00:19:14,280 --> 00:19:16,200
Speaker 3: It's like, didn't they just beat one of the best

378
00:19:16,280 --> 00:19:17,879
Speaker 3: running quarterbacks in all football?

379
00:19:17,880 --> 00:19:20,359
Speaker 4: And Lamar and the second best and Josh Allen. It's like,

380
00:19:21,200 --> 00:19:22,640
Speaker 4: I get where they're coming from. They're trying to find

381
00:19:22,640 --> 00:19:24,439
Speaker 4: angles to take this four NS team, but it's just

382
00:19:25,040 --> 00:19:28,600
Speaker 4: Spags just has the answer all along. So yeah, it's

383
00:19:28,640 --> 00:19:31,280
Speaker 4: just it is crazy diving into the numbers chat where

384
00:19:31,320 --> 00:19:33,959
Speaker 4: it's like, you know, that's what this week, these two

385
00:19:34,000 --> 00:19:36,160
Speaker 4: weeks you're all about, right, You're trying to really get

386
00:19:36,200 --> 00:19:39,480
Speaker 4: into every little thing. And the FY nine ers team

387
00:19:40,160 --> 00:19:43,000
Speaker 4: I think are proceeds much better to the general public

388
00:19:43,320 --> 00:19:45,239
Speaker 4: than they are to people breaking down film and really

389
00:19:45,320 --> 00:19:46,960
Speaker 4: dive into the numbers on this team where it's like

390
00:19:47,359 --> 00:19:49,879
Speaker 4: they are good, they do have a bunch of cracks

391
00:19:49,920 --> 00:19:52,440
Speaker 4: in this team, like they do have weaknesses on this defense,

392
00:19:52,760 --> 00:19:56,360
Speaker 4: and then offensively it is all there where it's like, yeah,

393
00:19:56,440 --> 00:19:58,720
Speaker 4: we know they have all the best weapons, they don't

394
00:19:58,760 --> 00:20:00,520
Speaker 4: have one of the best lines of football, right, Like

395
00:20:00,560 --> 00:20:03,520
Speaker 4: that is a thing that they've struggled right past. Blocking

396
00:20:03,640 --> 00:20:07,000
Speaker 4: is not their strengths. So there are things that you know,

397
00:20:07,080 --> 00:20:08,560
Speaker 4: the Chiefs are gonna able to take advantage of it.

398
00:20:08,600 --> 00:20:09,840
Speaker 4: At the end of the day, it's all going to

399
00:20:09,880 --> 00:20:12,600
Speaker 4: come down to Purty is prettying able to make these

400
00:20:12,640 --> 00:20:16,120
Speaker 4: plays because I feel like, you know, everything I read

401
00:20:16,119 --> 00:20:19,040
Speaker 4: from these beat writers from the Kansas City, the number

402
00:20:19,119 --> 00:20:22,080
Speaker 4: one goal is not to let McCaffrey get going. Like

403
00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:24,520
Speaker 4: everyone it seems like it talks about it. That's the goal,

404
00:20:24,640 --> 00:20:26,840
Speaker 4: right They don't want McCafferty to be the workhorse in

405
00:20:26,920 --> 00:20:29,720
Speaker 4: this game. So that's shifted my thought a lot, because

406
00:20:29,720 --> 00:20:31,560
Speaker 4: I really wanted to bet a lot of McCaffrey's overs.

407
00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:36,200
Speaker 4: You know, that's pretty interesting that that's really their mindset

408
00:20:36,240 --> 00:20:39,639
Speaker 4: of no again, not here to shoot on purty, but

409
00:20:40,040 --> 00:20:41,920
Speaker 4: they want pretty to beat them. They don't want McCaffrey

410
00:20:41,960 --> 00:20:43,480
Speaker 4: to beat them, and I think that's really going to

411
00:20:43,520 --> 00:20:45,240
Speaker 4: be their identity for this defensive style.

412
00:20:46,560 --> 00:20:48,840
Speaker 1: I think, finally for us on the side, it comes

413
00:20:48,840 --> 00:20:53,399
Speaker 1: down to Mahomes, it comes down to Spagnola and his

414
00:20:53,480 --> 00:20:56,520
Speaker 1: ability to make adjustments, and honestly, for me, it comes

415
00:20:56,560 --> 00:21:00,280
Speaker 1: down to the defense the Niners play, which is predominantly zone,

416
00:21:00,320 --> 00:21:03,600
Speaker 1: which is the perfect matchup form of Homes and Steve

417
00:21:03,640 --> 00:21:08,560
Speaker 1: wilks inability or stubbornness when it comes to making adjustments

418
00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:12,800
Speaker 1: from that zone defense. So that's why we like the Chiefs.

419
00:21:13,560 --> 00:21:17,720
Speaker 1: What are your other biggest bets for the game.

420
00:21:19,280 --> 00:21:19,640
Speaker 3: Right now?

421
00:21:19,760 --> 00:21:23,080
Speaker 4: My biggest altogether bet is the under. Like it's just

422
00:21:23,160 --> 00:21:25,080
Speaker 4: at this point the tickets have added up where this

423
00:21:25,200 --> 00:21:25,800
Speaker 4: is by far.

424
00:21:25,760 --> 00:21:27,240
Speaker 3: My biggest bet at sim and close.

425
00:21:27,920 --> 00:21:30,240
Speaker 4: I might get there though with the Chiefs, Like again,

426
00:21:30,600 --> 00:21:32,400
Speaker 4: we've seen some more two and a halfs pop up.

427
00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:35,359
Speaker 4: If they give me a three, I guarantee you if

428
00:21:35,359 --> 00:21:37,719
Speaker 4: a three pops again, the Chiefs wind up being bigger

429
00:21:37,760 --> 00:21:40,400
Speaker 4: than me taking a total here just because.

430
00:21:40,160 --> 00:21:42,760
Speaker 1: I would agree by the way, I feel like it

431
00:21:42,840 --> 00:21:45,159
Speaker 1: might get there. There's a couple of books two and a.

432
00:21:45,160 --> 00:21:48,680
Speaker 4: Half, right, And it's again it's all about liability to people.

433
00:21:48,680 --> 00:21:51,240
Speaker 4: If they if they keep getting four and niners money

434
00:21:51,240 --> 00:21:53,440
Speaker 4: and they're heaving forty nine ers futures, they will give

435
00:21:53,480 --> 00:21:55,560
Speaker 4: us the three. And that's I've been very patient with

436
00:21:55,640 --> 00:21:57,679
Speaker 4: it where it's I'm not forcing so many on the

437
00:21:57,680 --> 00:22:00,320
Speaker 4: two and a half. Where you know, when the more

438
00:22:00,320 --> 00:22:02,040
Speaker 4: public books in all of America as the two and

439
00:22:02,080 --> 00:22:04,719
Speaker 4: a half, they wouldn't take my money. So I've had

440
00:22:04,720 --> 00:22:06,280
Speaker 4: to use a couple other books to try to get

441
00:22:06,280 --> 00:22:11,159
Speaker 4: that number. But yeah, this is this is really you know,

442
00:22:12,160 --> 00:22:14,600
Speaker 4: a game of who's gonna budget first? Like it just

443
00:22:14,640 --> 00:22:17,040
Speaker 4: I'm just waiting for the for the big money to

444
00:22:17,040 --> 00:22:18,720
Speaker 4: come in like we talked about this weekend and hopefully

445
00:22:18,720 --> 00:22:20,800
Speaker 4: get us up to three. So I tried to be

446
00:22:20,880 --> 00:22:24,480
Speaker 4: very patient. But yeah, the under nothing's changed my confidence

447
00:22:24,520 --> 00:22:26,679
Speaker 4: on that. It's just I like the number. I like

448
00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:29,600
Speaker 4: the spot, the fact that it is forty seven and

449
00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:32,719
Speaker 4: a half, forty eight a couple of books. It's not shocking, right,

450
00:22:32,760 --> 00:22:35,080
Speaker 4: we talk all the time. The public likes do bet over,

451
00:22:35,200 --> 00:22:39,040
Speaker 4: especially in the Super Bowl. You know last year.

452
00:22:40,320 --> 00:22:42,080
Speaker 3: We talked all week it just felt like that was

453
00:22:42,080 --> 00:22:44,600
Speaker 3: an easy over where it's like both these teams are

454
00:22:44,640 --> 00:22:47,320
Speaker 3: so efficient offensively, I just don't see them getting stops

455
00:22:47,320 --> 00:22:49,720
Speaker 3: where these two teams identities are different than the teams

456
00:22:49,760 --> 00:22:50,280
Speaker 3: of last year.

457
00:22:50,280 --> 00:22:53,800
Speaker 4: Where this team, you know, the Chiefs, like long, methodical drives.

458
00:22:53,800 --> 00:22:56,159
Speaker 4: They want to take their time. Sam goes with the

459
00:22:56,160 --> 00:22:57,919
Speaker 4: forty nine ers, like the forty nine ers. Yeah, they

460
00:22:57,960 --> 00:23:00,280
Speaker 4: can push the ball downfield, that's not who they want

461
00:23:00,280 --> 00:23:02,240
Speaker 4: to be. Like that really isn't if you go through

462
00:23:02,520 --> 00:23:05,440
Speaker 4: they like to take their time as well. So both

463
00:23:05,480 --> 00:23:07,520
Speaker 4: going off game script. And we talk all the time

464
00:23:07,560 --> 00:23:10,880
Speaker 4: about the nerves, I just think between these guys being

465
00:23:10,920 --> 00:23:13,359
Speaker 4: so nervous everything like that, it's just it plays to

466
00:23:13,400 --> 00:23:15,560
Speaker 4: the under and that factors. Another bet I like to

467
00:23:15,560 --> 00:23:17,879
Speaker 4: make every year if you're near to the show, I

468
00:23:17,920 --> 00:23:20,680
Speaker 4: love betting the second half as being the most points.

469
00:23:20,800 --> 00:23:22,600
Speaker 4: Like I just I just find a time and time

470
00:23:22,600 --> 00:23:25,080
Speaker 4: a game seems like teams come out slow. Granted it

471
00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:28,359
Speaker 4: didn't work out last year, but that happens Like this

472
00:23:28,480 --> 00:23:29,760
Speaker 4: is just a bet I like to make every year

473
00:23:29,800 --> 00:23:33,399
Speaker 4: where historically teams come out slow in the first half

474
00:23:33,440 --> 00:23:36,640
Speaker 4: and you know, we were spoiled. I was so spoiled

475
00:23:36,640 --> 00:23:39,399
Speaker 4: with that Tom Brady run where Tom Brady the goat,

476
00:23:39,440 --> 00:23:43,360
Speaker 4: the greatest quarterback ever. It is arguably the worst quarterback

477
00:23:43,400 --> 00:23:45,399
Speaker 4: in Super Bowl history in the first quarter. Like I

478
00:23:45,440 --> 00:23:48,040
Speaker 4: think in one time out of nine games, he scored

479
00:23:48,040 --> 00:23:50,360
Speaker 4: more than three points in the first quarter. So that

480
00:23:50,400 --> 00:23:52,760
Speaker 4: was a gift because I just would always bet second

481
00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:55,440
Speaker 4: half most points just because of the Brady effect.

482
00:23:56,040 --> 00:23:58,359
Speaker 3: It hasn't been the same with Mahomes. Mahomes comes out firing.

483
00:23:58,400 --> 00:23:59,880
Speaker 4: It's a little different with him in the Super Bowl,

484
00:24:00,000 --> 00:24:03,280
Speaker 4: but I just see both teams kind of feeling each

485
00:24:03,280 --> 00:24:05,960
Speaker 4: other out and playing a little slow. So yeah, for

486
00:24:06,600 --> 00:24:08,639
Speaker 4: under bets, I like to tie it in. I like

487
00:24:08,720 --> 00:24:10,680
Speaker 4: the second half have been the most points compared to

488
00:24:10,720 --> 00:24:11,280
Speaker 4: the first half.

489
00:24:12,400 --> 00:24:14,320
Speaker 1: In the last couple of days, we've seen a shift

490
00:24:14,359 --> 00:24:18,800
Speaker 1: in the bet percentages for the total. The overhad about

491
00:24:18,840 --> 00:24:21,359
Speaker 1: fifty seven percent of the tickets in the last forty

492
00:24:21,400 --> 00:24:24,920
Speaker 1: eight hours. Now fifty three percent of the tickets are

493
00:24:24,960 --> 00:24:29,520
Speaker 1: on the under. Handle has been on the under since

494
00:24:29,600 --> 00:24:32,040
Speaker 1: the start at sixty three percent, so that's telling you

495
00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:34,919
Speaker 1: professional betters have liked the under forty seven and a half.

496
00:24:35,359 --> 00:24:38,440
Speaker 1: We bet the under forty seven and a half basically

497
00:24:38,480 --> 00:24:41,400
Speaker 1: two weeks ago at this point, it's just been sitting there.

498
00:24:41,440 --> 00:24:45,119
Speaker 1: I'm actually surprised it didn't get higher. We saw the

499
00:24:45,119 --> 00:24:48,639
Speaker 1: tickets creeping there, but all the money was coming in

500
00:24:48,680 --> 00:24:51,600
Speaker 1: on the under, so that's sort of why it stayed

501
00:24:52,119 --> 00:24:54,960
Speaker 1: where it did. It'll probably end up going lower before

502
00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:58,000
Speaker 1: game time if these tickets continue to come in on

503
00:24:58,320 --> 00:25:01,439
Speaker 1: the under. I thought Nick Giffen had a bet the

504
00:25:01,440 --> 00:25:08,720
Speaker 1: other day that I loved that. I probably have equal

505
00:25:08,800 --> 00:25:12,760
Speaker 1: to my side on this bet. Christian McCaffrey over three

506
00:25:12,840 --> 00:25:15,679
Speaker 1: and a half rush yards on his first carry. I

507
00:25:15,720 --> 00:25:19,720
Speaker 1: thought his breakdown was brilliant. It totally makes sense anecdotally.

508
00:25:20,080 --> 00:25:22,560
Speaker 1: Think about how many times you've seen Christian McCaffrey get

509
00:25:22,560 --> 00:25:27,720
Speaker 1: the first carry, and you know he is surprisingly powerful

510
00:25:28,400 --> 00:25:30,440
Speaker 1: in the middle of that line. And I think even

511
00:25:30,440 --> 00:25:32,680
Speaker 1: though what people have played against him, it still is

512
00:25:32,720 --> 00:25:36,120
Speaker 1: a jolt, right, And that is like a play they script.

513
00:25:36,520 --> 00:25:38,800
Speaker 1: They want to get him off the ball, They want

514
00:25:38,840 --> 00:25:40,800
Speaker 1: to move the line to scrimmage forward. They want to

515
00:25:40,840 --> 00:25:45,240
Speaker 1: feel like they are controlling and overpowering the other defense.

516
00:25:45,600 --> 00:25:48,399
Speaker 1: To me, that the way Nick lined up that bet.

517
00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:49,760
Speaker 1: Freaking loved it.

518
00:25:51,200 --> 00:25:53,200
Speaker 4: Yeah, I love it too, because it's like he talked

519
00:25:53,240 --> 00:25:55,720
Speaker 4: about it's hit out of eleven out of sixteen games,

520
00:25:55,760 --> 00:25:58,440
Speaker 4: and now you factor in it's a good matchup against

521
00:25:58,440 --> 00:26:02,520
Speaker 4: the Chiefs. We keep talking about it. Chiefs have undersized linebackers.

522
00:26:02,560 --> 00:26:04,520
Speaker 4: The way you attack the Chiefs is running the ball.

523
00:26:04,880 --> 00:26:07,400
Speaker 4: Even though they have some of the better tackling cornerbacks,

524
00:26:07,840 --> 00:26:09,640
Speaker 4: that doesn't help you when you're trying to stop them

525
00:26:09,640 --> 00:26:11,840
Speaker 4: four or five yards, right, Like, that's your second line,

526
00:26:11,920 --> 00:26:15,720
Speaker 4: third line of defense. These great at tackling cornerbacks. So yeah,

527
00:26:15,760 --> 00:26:18,359
Speaker 4: I'm right there with Nick. Like first play, you expect

528
00:26:18,400 --> 00:26:20,720
Speaker 4: the offense to have some push. You know, you already

529
00:26:20,720 --> 00:26:22,399
Speaker 4: know what they're gonna run, right, They're just gonna run

530
00:26:22,440 --> 00:26:24,520
Speaker 4: into McCaffrey, run up the middle of one of the sides.

531
00:26:24,560 --> 00:26:27,600
Speaker 4: It's just it bakes into what we talked about where

532
00:26:28,040 --> 00:26:30,479
Speaker 4: that's the fort down of his identity.

533
00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:32,520
Speaker 3: Right. If they want to set a tone, they're gonna

534
00:26:32,520 --> 00:26:33,680
Speaker 3: set it to them by running the ball.

535
00:26:33,720 --> 00:26:35,520
Speaker 4: And that's what they like to do right there. Half

536
00:26:35,560 --> 00:26:38,600
Speaker 4: their plays are out of play action pass. So not

537
00:26:38,760 --> 00:26:41,240
Speaker 4: shocking that you love that play. I tried to bet

538
00:26:41,280 --> 00:26:43,320
Speaker 4: it when Nick talked about it, the number kept moving.

539
00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:45,000
Speaker 3: So it is tough people.

540
00:26:45,040 --> 00:26:46,560
Speaker 4: If you're hearing this now, you do want to grab

541
00:26:46,600 --> 00:26:48,840
Speaker 4: it three and a half because it is moving up

542
00:26:48,880 --> 00:26:49,160
Speaker 4: to four.

543
00:26:51,200 --> 00:26:53,720
Speaker 1: Tell me about your Deebo, Samuel Over it was over

544
00:26:53,840 --> 00:26:56,439
Speaker 1: fifty eight and a half earlier in the week. I

545
00:26:56,440 --> 00:26:58,960
Speaker 1: think it's creeping up a little bit. But you had

546
00:26:59,040 --> 00:27:02,200
Speaker 1: really good breakdown and why you liked debo over fifty

547
00:27:02,280 --> 00:27:04,040
Speaker 1: eight and a half for senior yards.

548
00:27:03,840 --> 00:27:05,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, and shifting out to fifty nine and a half

549
00:27:05,480 --> 00:27:07,639
Speaker 4: and sixty eight. A couple of books still like it.

550
00:27:07,680 --> 00:27:10,840
Speaker 4: But we talked about Deebo is going to be in

551
00:27:10,840 --> 00:27:14,320
Speaker 4: the slot. That's really honestly, the only real weakness is

552
00:27:14,359 --> 00:27:17,120
Speaker 4: Kansas City Secondary. They're just not good against slot receivers,

553
00:27:17,160 --> 00:27:19,639
Speaker 4: so you will be on the outside. Obviously, he's going

554
00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:22,520
Speaker 4: to be getting more attention where Deebo in that slot position.

555
00:27:22,560 --> 00:27:23,920
Speaker 4: I can just see him getting a lot of work

556
00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:26,400
Speaker 4: and a lot of touches. Where we talk all the time.

557
00:27:26,520 --> 00:27:29,280
Speaker 4: Deebo's issue with us is is he going to finish

558
00:27:29,280 --> 00:27:31,639
Speaker 4: the game? The guy plays so hard, he uses his

559
00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:34,480
Speaker 4: body so violently, it's hard to know we're going to

560
00:27:34,520 --> 00:27:36,680
Speaker 4: get week to week from him. This is it, right,

561
00:27:36,720 --> 00:27:38,000
Speaker 4: this is the last game of the year, so he's

562
00:27:38,000 --> 00:27:39,600
Speaker 4: going all out. I think they're gonna use him that

563
00:27:39,600 --> 00:27:42,080
Speaker 4: way where it's like, you know, Kyle's not gonna be

564
00:27:42,080 --> 00:27:44,440
Speaker 4: saving him for the next game, right, It's it's gonna

565
00:27:44,440 --> 00:27:47,560
Speaker 4: be a lot of plays that are scripted just for Deebo.

566
00:27:47,840 --> 00:27:49,200
Speaker 3: And that's a big deal.

567
00:27:49,240 --> 00:27:51,159
Speaker 4: When you go through Deebo's history and games where he

568
00:27:51,200 --> 00:27:54,720
Speaker 4: does explode, it's off scripted plays. It's it's really something

569
00:27:54,760 --> 00:27:57,840
Speaker 4: unique with him. So the only reason to me that

570
00:27:57,920 --> 00:28:01,280
Speaker 4: this number is so low is because of his running ability,

571
00:28:01,440 --> 00:28:02,960
Speaker 4: Like you have to mix in that he's going to

572
00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:05,719
Speaker 4: be getting carries in this game. That's a big deal, right,

573
00:28:05,760 --> 00:28:07,439
Speaker 4: That's gonna take away touches fro him catching.

574
00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:09,879
Speaker 3: But me and you talked about how we think the

575
00:28:09,880 --> 00:28:10,840
Speaker 3: game script is gonna be.

576
00:28:10,920 --> 00:28:13,200
Speaker 4: I think the Chiefs will have a lead that plays

577
00:28:13,200 --> 00:28:16,879
Speaker 4: into Debo as well, like Debo getting these catches. So again,

578
00:28:17,240 --> 00:28:19,119
Speaker 4: when you're making these bets, you're trying to trying to

579
00:28:19,160 --> 00:28:20,680
Speaker 4: bet out how you think the whole game scrip is

580
00:28:20,680 --> 00:28:22,719
Speaker 4: going to go. And this plays into how I think

581
00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:24,520
Speaker 4: the gamestrips can go. And also add in the fact

582
00:28:24,600 --> 00:28:27,080
Speaker 4: that all the numbers line up where this is a

583
00:28:27,160 --> 00:28:30,240
Speaker 4: huge favorable matchup for Debo. Like everything he does well,

584
00:28:30,680 --> 00:28:35,400
Speaker 4: they struggle with covering in that slot position. So everything

585
00:28:35,480 --> 00:28:38,680
Speaker 4: I've read, all the b writers say Debo is one

586
00:28:38,760 --> 00:28:41,240
Speaker 4: hundred percent good to go. So obviously, if you're worried

587
00:28:41,240 --> 00:28:44,200
Speaker 4: because he was banged up two weeks ago, I read

588
00:28:44,240 --> 00:28:45,840
Speaker 4: that he couldn't even lift his arm above his head

589
00:28:45,840 --> 00:28:47,800
Speaker 4: after the game, and then by the following week when

590
00:28:47,800 --> 00:28:50,360
Speaker 4: game time showed up, he had full rotation of his

591
00:28:50,480 --> 00:28:52,640
Speaker 4: arms and his shoulders and he was all good. Now

592
00:28:52,680 --> 00:28:55,800
Speaker 4: he's had two weeks to go, full participate in all

593
00:28:55,840 --> 00:28:59,680
Speaker 4: their practices, not on the injury report, feel okay betting

594
00:28:59,720 --> 00:29:01,200
Speaker 4: Debo here. I know a lot of people worried about

595
00:29:01,200 --> 00:29:03,760
Speaker 4: the injury. I wouldn't fact that it in right, It's

596
00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:07,200
Speaker 4: not worth them lying about on the injury report. Even

597
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:08,600
Speaker 4: if he was a little banged up, they would put

598
00:29:08,600 --> 00:29:11,320
Speaker 4: some type of news on there. He's completely clear to go.

599
00:29:11,520 --> 00:29:14,600
Speaker 4: So I do have confidence and betting Deebo this week.

600
00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:21,240
Speaker 1: Well, listen the buzz coming from Super Bowl in Las

601
00:29:21,320 --> 00:29:28,600
Speaker 1: Vegas yesterday, how royally pissed the Niners are about the

602
00:29:28,640 --> 00:29:31,960
Speaker 1: practice field conditions. And like I know that story came

603
00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:35,840
Speaker 1: out earlier in the week and at the press conferences

604
00:29:36,080 --> 00:29:40,400
Speaker 1: they weren't necessarily sort of trying to blow it off

605
00:29:40,440 --> 00:29:43,320
Speaker 1: and brush it off, but they weren't sort of speaking

606
00:29:43,360 --> 00:29:47,760
Speaker 1: their truth. They're pissed. I heard about that three or

607
00:29:47,760 --> 00:29:53,240
Speaker 1: four different times yesterday. How pissed players coaches are about

608
00:29:53,560 --> 00:29:56,880
Speaker 1: the conditions that they're projecting on. Do I think that

609
00:29:57,280 --> 00:30:01,200
Speaker 1: impacts the game? Probably not? But it does it mean

610
00:30:01,680 --> 00:30:04,360
Speaker 1: on a Wednesday or a Thursday, are you practicing in

611
00:30:04,440 --> 00:30:08,800
Speaker 1: conditions that aren't an ideal and you're a ninety seven

612
00:30:08,800 --> 00:30:11,040
Speaker 1: percent instead of one hundred percent? Will that three percent matter?

613
00:30:11,800 --> 00:30:13,680
Speaker 1: I don't know. All I know is they're really pissed.

614
00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:16,040
Speaker 1: And that's been a story that has been bubbling here

615
00:30:16,040 --> 00:30:19,719
Speaker 1: in Las Vegas much more aggressively than it's even being covered,

616
00:30:19,880 --> 00:30:23,400
Speaker 1: and it has been covered, so, uh, something to think about.

617
00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:25,560
Speaker 4: That's why I asked you about the rain though, because

618
00:30:25,600 --> 00:30:31,320
Speaker 4: I've heard all these reports they've the Vegas Stadium has

619
00:30:31,360 --> 00:30:34,120
Speaker 4: one of those wheel wheeled out grass fields, so it's

620
00:30:34,120 --> 00:30:36,040
Speaker 4: one of those fields they wheeled out of the stadium.

621
00:30:36,240 --> 00:30:39,480
Speaker 4: And apparently in Vegas they've had some bad weather and

622
00:30:39,520 --> 00:30:43,120
Speaker 4: it's been in the forties and fifties most nights. So again,

623
00:30:43,760 --> 00:30:45,520
Speaker 4: are we really going to be talking about grass here

624
00:30:45,600 --> 00:30:47,360
Speaker 4: next week, just like we did last Super Bowl. But

625
00:30:47,880 --> 00:30:50,000
Speaker 4: apparently the field they're going to wheel in is a

626
00:30:50,000 --> 00:30:52,280
Speaker 4: little a little banged up from being outdoors and stuff.

627
00:30:52,320 --> 00:30:54,880
Speaker 4: So another thing we could see is a slick field

628
00:30:54,880 --> 00:30:58,560
Speaker 4: and players having to switch switch cleats mid game. It's

629
00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:01,480
Speaker 4: just back to back Super Bowls like this is kind

630
00:31:01,520 --> 00:31:03,240
Speaker 4: of a disaster for the NFL.

631
00:31:03,840 --> 00:31:05,920
Speaker 1: All right, let me summarize for people the bets that

632
00:31:05,960 --> 00:31:08,800
Speaker 1: we're sort of leading into the most. It's going to

633
00:31:08,880 --> 00:31:12,400
Speaker 1: be the Chiefs plus two. For the record, we both

634
00:31:12,440 --> 00:31:13,560
Speaker 1: bet this at two and a half. You might have

635
00:31:13,600 --> 00:31:15,080
Speaker 1: gotten a little bit of the three when it first

636
00:31:15,240 --> 00:31:18,320
Speaker 1: opened on Sunday night under forty seven and a half.

637
00:31:18,800 --> 00:31:22,160
Speaker 1: We both bet Deebo Samuel over his receiving yards fifty

638
00:31:22,160 --> 00:31:24,360
Speaker 1: eight and a half. It's moving up. We both bet

639
00:31:24,440 --> 00:31:27,200
Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey over three and a half rush yards on

640
00:31:27,240 --> 00:31:30,920
Speaker 1: his first attempt. I also, based on some stats Evan

641
00:31:30,960 --> 00:31:34,320
Speaker 1: gave us a couple weeks ago, I bet Chiefs minus

642
00:31:34,320 --> 00:31:37,080
Speaker 1: two and a half at about plus one thirty five,

643
00:31:38,200 --> 00:31:41,360
Speaker 1: which I thought was really fun. And chances are that

644
00:31:42,720 --> 00:31:45,680
Speaker 1: sort of these games will land at three or more.

645
00:31:46,600 --> 00:31:48,600
Speaker 1: So if you like one side, then maybe you want

646
00:31:48,640 --> 00:31:50,280
Speaker 1: to take that side as a favorite of less than

647
00:31:50,320 --> 00:31:54,760
Speaker 1: three of three or of at lesson three. And then

648
00:31:54,840 --> 00:31:58,000
Speaker 1: I did sprinkle based on our conversation on Tuesday, a

649
00:31:58,000 --> 00:32:00,600
Speaker 1: little bit of a Sheiver Rice MVP. It's sixty to one,

650
00:32:01,040 --> 00:32:05,120
Speaker 1: Travis Kelce seventeen to one. You know, I'm trying to

651
00:32:05,120 --> 00:32:07,080
Speaker 1: find the ways to bet the Chiefs without having to

652
00:32:07,160 --> 00:32:10,000
Speaker 1: go all in on the Chiefs and find ways to

653
00:32:10,080 --> 00:32:12,480
Speaker 1: hedge a little bit with the Niners. I know it's cowardly,

654
00:32:12,680 --> 00:32:15,960
Speaker 1: but you know, I want to enjoy the game, and.

655
00:32:16,040 --> 00:32:18,000
Speaker 4: Talking about those adjusted lines, it made me feel that

656
00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:20,120
Speaker 4: then better. When Nick was talking about how these teams

657
00:32:20,720 --> 00:32:23,040
Speaker 4: they don't do things outside the book, right, they don't

658
00:32:23,080 --> 00:32:26,360
Speaker 4: go for two, they rarely miss extra points, Like it's

659
00:32:26,720 --> 00:32:28,560
Speaker 4: these teams very do play it by the book, so

660
00:32:28,600 --> 00:32:30,520
Speaker 4: we shouldn't see some weird numbers. Like I feel even

661
00:32:30,560 --> 00:32:32,400
Speaker 4: better taking the minus two and a half because it

662
00:32:32,440 --> 00:32:34,600
Speaker 4: does feel like this game will laying on three. That's

663
00:32:34,640 --> 00:32:36,360
Speaker 4: why Nick is trying to get all of us to

664
00:32:36,360 --> 00:32:39,000
Speaker 4: bet this overtime bet, which I think is actly hilarious.

665
00:32:39,080 --> 00:32:43,400
Speaker 4: But yeah, for for me, right now, I'm right there

666
00:32:43,400 --> 00:32:45,080
Speaker 4: with Chad and we can run through a couple more

667
00:32:45,080 --> 00:32:48,400
Speaker 4: of the player props, but it's it's all about what

668
00:32:48,440 --> 00:32:50,080
Speaker 4: you want the games cub to beat people. That's how

669
00:32:50,120 --> 00:32:52,120
Speaker 4: I bet because if I hit big, I want to

670
00:32:52,200 --> 00:32:55,800
Speaker 4: hit huge. And I mean again, don't be scared off

671
00:32:55,800 --> 00:32:58,800
Speaker 4: of betting the really boring chalk bets. We've seen timetime again,

672
00:32:59,280 --> 00:33:03,480
Speaker 4: the star player usually show up. I mean last year,

673
00:33:04,040 --> 00:33:07,560
Speaker 4: I think what Hurts had three rushing touchdowns and Mahomes

674
00:33:07,560 --> 00:33:10,000
Speaker 4: had a great game. And the year before, I think

675
00:33:10,000 --> 00:33:12,120
Speaker 4: Cooper Cupp had two touchdowns, and I think Chase Went

676
00:33:12,200 --> 00:33:13,040
Speaker 4: had two touchdowns.

677
00:33:13,080 --> 00:33:15,280
Speaker 3: Like, the stars usually do show up.

678
00:33:15,640 --> 00:33:16,960
Speaker 4: So if you're like, well, I don't want to bet

679
00:33:16,960 --> 00:33:19,080
Speaker 4: Travis Kelcey all of his overs and his touchdown props,

680
00:33:19,240 --> 00:33:22,040
Speaker 4: bet them, I'm betting them. It's like the best players

681
00:33:22,240 --> 00:33:24,320
Speaker 4: show up and you were saying, well, the defense is

682
00:33:24,320 --> 00:33:26,120
Speaker 4: gonna be covering him. They're all gonna shift their coverage

683
00:33:26,120 --> 00:33:28,480
Speaker 4: to him. What do you think his whole career has been?

684
00:33:28,920 --> 00:33:30,960
Speaker 4: Do you not get what a Hall of Famer is? Okay,

685
00:33:31,200 --> 00:33:33,360
Speaker 4: it's team preparing as much as they can for one

686
00:33:33,400 --> 00:33:35,640
Speaker 4: guy and the game plan being gone end of their

687
00:33:35,640 --> 00:33:37,920
Speaker 4: first quarter. That's the kind of guy Travis Kelcey is so,

688
00:33:38,720 --> 00:33:40,200
Speaker 4: I got a lot of questions like, well, don't you

689
00:33:40,240 --> 00:33:43,280
Speaker 4: feel like you're superstar heavy. Yes, that's how you should

690
00:33:43,280 --> 00:33:45,200
Speaker 4: be betting in the Super Bowl. Like the best names,

691
00:33:45,240 --> 00:33:47,640
Speaker 4: the best guys, they tend to get their touches in

692
00:33:47,680 --> 00:33:50,960
Speaker 4: these Super Bowls. Right, there's always gonna be a David Tyree. Okay,

693
00:33:51,160 --> 00:33:53,840
Speaker 4: think how long ago David Tyree's catch was. Okay, that's

694
00:33:53,880 --> 00:33:56,280
Speaker 4: how rare those little things are. Where Yes, they're always

695
00:33:56,280 --> 00:33:59,160
Speaker 4: gonna be random guys making big plays, but usually the

696
00:33:59,200 --> 00:34:02,240
Speaker 4: best players show up. So another prop I like an

697
00:34:02,280 --> 00:34:05,240
Speaker 4: over guy running back is Pachecko. Right, I think the

698
00:34:05,280 --> 00:34:07,720
Speaker 4: Chiefs are going to control this game. What is the

699
00:34:07,760 --> 00:34:10,239
Speaker 4: weakness of this point hours team? They can be ran

700
00:34:10,320 --> 00:34:12,840
Speaker 4: on and that is something where you know, Chase Young

701
00:34:13,239 --> 00:34:16,640
Speaker 4: Bosa great pass rushers, they're not that great against the run,

702
00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:19,040
Speaker 4: and that has been a weakness of Theirs this season.

703
00:34:19,160 --> 00:34:21,320
Speaker 3: So yeah, but check go.

704
00:34:21,840 --> 00:34:25,120
Speaker 4: A couple of books have moved them up above sixty

705
00:34:25,239 --> 00:34:28,000
Speaker 4: sixty five and a half sixty nine at some books

706
00:34:28,239 --> 00:34:29,279
Speaker 4: is rushing over prop?

707
00:34:29,760 --> 00:34:30,239
Speaker 3: I like it.

708
00:34:30,280 --> 00:34:32,160
Speaker 4: I just think this is a team that's gonna made

709
00:34:32,160 --> 00:34:34,640
Speaker 4: a ball control. We've seen it all season with Pacheck

710
00:34:34,680 --> 00:34:37,760
Speaker 4: go too. He's just their workhorse. I believe he averaged

711
00:34:37,800 --> 00:34:40,720
Speaker 4: over four point three yards per carry. No other running

712
00:34:40,719 --> 00:34:43,080
Speaker 4: back in their TEAMVVA comes close to that. So he

713
00:34:43,200 --> 00:34:45,319
Speaker 4: is their guy and he re talked about it. When

714
00:34:45,320 --> 00:34:48,720
Speaker 4: they get him over seventeen touches, that's usually them sealing

715
00:34:48,760 --> 00:34:50,480
Speaker 4: the games right, and we've seen time and time again

716
00:34:50,520 --> 00:34:51,880
Speaker 4: they want to feed him the ball, especially in the

717
00:34:51,920 --> 00:34:54,960
Speaker 4: second half when they do have a lead. So Pa Checko,

718
00:34:55,040 --> 00:34:58,680
Speaker 4: that's another player prop I like his over rushing yards.

719
00:34:58,520 --> 00:35:00,959
Speaker 1: On Another one that I like is Checko to lead

720
00:35:01,120 --> 00:35:03,480
Speaker 1: the game in rushing, which you might be able to

721
00:35:03,480 --> 00:35:06,280
Speaker 1: get at better numbers. I think at least last week.

722
00:35:06,160 --> 00:35:07,520
Speaker 3: It was that a coroner bet?

723
00:35:07,880 --> 00:35:09,920
Speaker 1: That was I think it was a raybon or coroner bet?

724
00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:15,160
Speaker 1: It was plus money last week I got it. Yeah, Simon,

725
00:35:16,040 --> 00:35:19,200
Speaker 1: Everyone that knows me knows I'm obsessed with eating well.

726
00:35:19,440 --> 00:35:22,200
Speaker 1: I avoid sugar, I avoid seed oils. My body is

727
00:35:22,239 --> 00:35:25,359
Speaker 1: a temple. I seek out quality in everything I eat,

728
00:35:25,680 --> 00:35:28,720
Speaker 1: including meat and seafood. That's why I love our friends

729
00:35:28,800 --> 00:35:33,040
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730
00:35:33,080 --> 00:35:36,240
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731
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732
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733
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Speaker 1: wildcut salmon, and shrimp, just to name a few. If

734
00:35:50,800 --> 00:35:55,600
Speaker 1: you are too busy betting Deebo Samuel super Bowl MVP

735
00:35:56,200 --> 00:35:58,919
Speaker 1: to head to the grocery store or wait in line

736
00:35:58,960 --> 00:36:01,760
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737
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738
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740
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741
00:36:16,480 --> 00:36:21,640
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742
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Speaker 1: to get one hundred and twenty dollars off across your

743
00:36:24,880 --> 00:36:30,600
Speaker 1: first four boxes. That's code at favorites one twenty at

744
00:36:30,640 --> 00:36:36,080
Speaker 1: good Chop dot com slash favorites one twenty or one

745
00:36:36,160 --> 00:36:41,680
Speaker 1: hundred and twenty dollars off. All right, Simon, I'm in Vegas.

746
00:36:42,080 --> 00:36:46,520
Speaker 1: I'm leaving Vegas before the game. I feel like acting

747
00:36:46,560 --> 00:36:49,839
Speaker 1: like you've been there knows when you is, knowing when

748
00:36:49,840 --> 00:36:52,160
Speaker 1: you should leave the Super Bowl. So I'm leaving the

749
00:36:52,200 --> 00:36:55,680
Speaker 1: day before. Where will you be How are you going

750
00:36:55,760 --> 00:36:58,719
Speaker 1: to spend your day? Will you be live betting your

751
00:36:58,719 --> 00:37:00,839
Speaker 1: face off? What is your for both Sunday light?

752
00:37:02,320 --> 00:37:05,480
Speaker 3: It all depends. Obviously.

753
00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:06,839
Speaker 4: I'm back in Jersey. I have a lot of friends

754
00:37:06,880 --> 00:37:09,760
Speaker 4: and family around here, so I might do super Bowl parties.

755
00:37:09,520 --> 00:37:11,120
Speaker 3: You know, have fun.

756
00:37:11,719 --> 00:37:14,520
Speaker 4: But I am crazy, superstitious, and I have a weird

757
00:37:14,520 --> 00:37:15,319
Speaker 4: thing where I like to do.

758
00:37:15,920 --> 00:37:17,480
Speaker 3: But I'm what I live back here on Sunday.

759
00:37:17,480 --> 00:37:18,759
Speaker 4: Is my favorite thing to do is I go to

760
00:37:18,800 --> 00:37:21,239
Speaker 4: the books, so we do our show Sunday morning, I'll

761
00:37:21,280 --> 00:37:24,080
Speaker 4: do our show. I'll head either down to a sierra

762
00:37:24,120 --> 00:37:27,120
Speaker 4: to Philadelphia. And it's weird. But I like to play

763
00:37:27,160 --> 00:37:29,680
Speaker 4: blackjack during the games. I don't know why I've always

764
00:37:29,719 --> 00:37:32,040
Speaker 4: been this way. And again I'm not playing for big money,

765
00:37:32,080 --> 00:37:35,040
Speaker 4: but I like to play where I'm watching, but I'm

766
00:37:35,080 --> 00:37:36,759
Speaker 4: half watching, especially if I have a lot of money

767
00:37:36,760 --> 00:37:39,560
Speaker 4: on the game. And then if things start going good

768
00:37:40,080 --> 00:37:43,840
Speaker 4: and I'm winning in blackjack as well, I'll stay. And

769
00:37:43,880 --> 00:37:46,000
Speaker 4: if things are going bad both sides, I get out

770
00:37:46,040 --> 00:37:48,440
Speaker 4: right away, like five minutes in ten minutes, and I'll

771
00:37:48,440 --> 00:37:49,640
Speaker 4: get out because I.

772
00:37:49,600 --> 00:37:52,360
Speaker 3: Just won't like the vibes. But this game.

773
00:37:52,840 --> 00:37:54,400
Speaker 4: I know a couple of people having a big parties

774
00:37:54,400 --> 00:37:56,239
Speaker 4: down at Lake City. I'll probably go down for that.

775
00:37:56,960 --> 00:38:00,279
Speaker 4: Always a good time. So yeah, it's I think this

776
00:38:00,320 --> 00:38:03,640
Speaker 4: will be my third super Bowl down in Atlantic City,

777
00:38:03,640 --> 00:38:05,919
Speaker 4: and obviously it's Baby Vegas for a reason.

778
00:38:05,960 --> 00:38:08,160
Speaker 3: It's always a really good time, especially for the Super Bowl.

779
00:38:09,719 --> 00:38:12,239
Speaker 1: Where will you go if you leave five or ten

780
00:38:12,280 --> 00:38:13,959
Speaker 1: minutes out? Where are you going?

781
00:38:15,600 --> 00:38:17,239
Speaker 3: Like if I'm in the book and I'm hating and I.

782
00:38:17,200 --> 00:38:19,360
Speaker 1: Want to leave, Yeah, you just go back to your place.

783
00:38:19,600 --> 00:38:21,040
Speaker 3: No, I'll go hang out with the common folk.

784
00:38:21,120 --> 00:38:23,200
Speaker 4: I'll go hang out with the normal people and watch

785
00:38:23,280 --> 00:38:25,759
Speaker 4: the game, eat some pretzels, have some small talk about

786
00:38:25,760 --> 00:38:28,720
Speaker 4: the wife and kids, now, the usual normal people stuff.

787
00:38:29,200 --> 00:38:30,280
Speaker 1: That's so funny.

788
00:38:30,640 --> 00:38:31,080
Speaker 4: How do you.

789
00:38:31,040 --> 00:38:32,000
Speaker 3: Progress so green?

790
00:38:32,080 --> 00:38:32,200
Speaker 1: Oh?

791
00:38:32,320 --> 00:38:34,680
Speaker 4: I use a turkey fertilizer. Yeah, it's always a good

792
00:38:34,680 --> 00:38:37,640
Speaker 4: time shot small talk in your mid thirties.

793
00:38:39,280 --> 00:38:43,720
Speaker 1: It's true. That's exactly why my wife when I was leaving,

794
00:38:43,719 --> 00:38:46,040
Speaker 1: She's like, so, you're gonna be home on Sunday. I'm

795
00:38:46,080 --> 00:38:48,200
Speaker 1: like yeah. She goes, do you want to have a party.

796
00:38:48,600 --> 00:38:51,759
Speaker 1: I'm like, no, I don't want to talk to anybody

797
00:38:52,200 --> 00:38:54,920
Speaker 1: during the game. I don't want to be communicating with people.

798
00:38:55,200 --> 00:38:56,799
Speaker 1: When I'm going to be on my phone, I'm going

799
00:38:56,840 --> 00:39:00,320
Speaker 1: to be tracking in the app the percentage opportunity percent

800
00:39:00,520 --> 00:39:03,680
Speaker 1: chance I have to win my bet. I think my kid,

801
00:39:04,040 --> 00:39:06,840
Speaker 1: I'll have a bunch of friends over. They'll be crazy.

802
00:39:08,200 --> 00:39:11,320
Speaker 1: I may have to leave the room because at some point,

803
00:39:11,400 --> 00:39:14,360
Speaker 1: if it gets too crazy, it'll stress me out. And

804
00:39:14,400 --> 00:39:16,440
Speaker 1: I don't want to be the dad who is like

805
00:39:17,280 --> 00:39:20,839
Speaker 1: letting bets impact his mood on Super Bowl Sunday and

806
00:39:20,880 --> 00:39:25,520
Speaker 1: having the kid see that. So I'll I'll probably end up,

807
00:39:25,719 --> 00:39:28,799
Speaker 1: you know, under the covers in my room by myself.

808
00:39:29,719 --> 00:39:31,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, that's that was me. Like last year, I was

809
00:39:33,160 --> 00:39:34,480
Speaker 3: I didn't want to watch with anyone.

810
00:39:34,280 --> 00:39:36,760
Speaker 4: Because I had so much money, and it was the Eagles,

811
00:39:37,440 --> 00:39:40,279
Speaker 4: and I made the huge mistake of they're up ten

812
00:39:40,880 --> 00:39:44,280
Speaker 4: at halftime, feeling pretty good, hit up a lady friend

813
00:39:44,640 --> 00:39:46,760
Speaker 4: go watch the game with and I'm hanging out with her,

814
00:39:47,400 --> 00:39:49,960
Speaker 4: and I think it was I don't know what happened,

815
00:39:49,960 --> 00:39:51,520
Speaker 4: but either we had to leave head in the fourth

816
00:39:51,560 --> 00:39:54,400
Speaker 4: quarter or whatever it was, we punted and again this

817
00:39:54,480 --> 00:39:56,440
Speaker 4: girl will never never hit me up ever again. I

818
00:39:56,440 --> 00:39:58,080
Speaker 4: looked there like a crazy person, was like, I need

819
00:39:58,120 --> 00:40:00,480
Speaker 4: to leave right now, and she's like, Wow, I'm just

820
00:40:00,520 --> 00:40:02,600
Speaker 4: like everything is going wrong since I've gotten here. I

821
00:40:02,640 --> 00:40:06,160
Speaker 4: just need to leave. And yeah, that didn't matter. The

822
00:40:06,200 --> 00:40:09,279
Speaker 4: egos lost anyway, But anyone knows if you're sports better.

823
00:40:09,280 --> 00:40:11,359
Speaker 4: We're all crazy. We're all superstitious. Even though we say

824
00:40:11,360 --> 00:40:13,879
Speaker 4: we're not, we are in some different ways. So I'm

825
00:40:13,880 --> 00:40:16,919
Speaker 4: with Chad where it's like, in the ideal world, i'd

826
00:40:16,920 --> 00:40:18,799
Speaker 4: watched a loan so I could stay focused. But I

827
00:40:18,840 --> 00:40:20,880
Speaker 4: did that last year, so I'm gonna try to go

828
00:40:20,920 --> 00:40:22,200
Speaker 4: out and beat around people this year.

829
00:40:22,600 --> 00:40:24,520
Speaker 1: Also, we're always doing the math. What do I need

830
00:40:24,560 --> 00:40:27,360
Speaker 1: to happen on the next two plays in order for

831
00:40:27,480 --> 00:40:30,000
Speaker 1: my bet to get back in a position to win?

832
00:40:30,640 --> 00:40:35,400
Speaker 1: All hope is lost? Or no, maybe it's not. What

833
00:40:35,520 --> 00:40:38,040
Speaker 1: is it When all hope is lost? All that's left

834
00:40:38,080 --> 00:40:41,760
Speaker 1: is relief? My favorite scoochism, by the way, Bob Scoochy.

835
00:40:41,800 --> 00:40:45,400
Speaker 1: I'll be seeing him this week in Las Vegas. Simon

836
00:40:46,200 --> 00:40:50,520
Speaker 1: by now you know that Little Caesars, the official pizza

837
00:40:50,560 --> 00:40:54,479
Speaker 1: sponsor of the NFL, knows fans love a great game

838
00:40:54,520 --> 00:40:57,680
Speaker 1: and a great deal, so they're tossing out a challenge.

839
00:40:57,840 --> 00:41:02,240
Speaker 1: They're calling that challenge the pick six for slices and sticks.

840
00:41:02,600 --> 00:41:05,279
Speaker 1: If there's a pick six during Super Bowl fifty eight,

841
00:41:05,320 --> 00:41:08,720
Speaker 1: fans who accepted this challenge on the Little Caesars app

842
00:41:09,120 --> 00:41:14,920
Speaker 1: will get a free slices and sticks period. They've even

843
00:41:15,000 --> 00:41:19,600
Speaker 1: partnered with NFL legend Derek Brooks of the Tampa Bay

844
00:41:19,640 --> 00:41:23,840
Speaker 1: Box because he returned a famous pick six during Super

845
00:41:23,880 --> 00:41:26,879
Speaker 1: Bowl thirty seven back in two thousand and three when

846
00:41:26,920 --> 00:41:31,360
Speaker 1: the bus crushed the Raiders forty eight twenty one. Simon,

847
00:41:31,680 --> 00:41:37,360
Speaker 1: in honor of this promotion, I created one final motto

848
00:41:37,760 --> 00:41:43,800
Speaker 1: for this football season. When the Super Bowl hits you

849
00:41:43,920 --> 00:41:50,160
Speaker 1: like a roundhouse from Swazy, refresh your body with the

850
00:41:50,239 --> 00:41:52,719
Speaker 1: crust that is crazy.

851
00:41:53,840 --> 00:41:54,480
Speaker 3: So accept the.

852
00:41:54,560 --> 00:42:00,200
Speaker 1: Challenge on the Little Caesars app today and win some pizza.

853
00:42:00,680 --> 00:42:03,239
Speaker 1: Don't you think I really brought it home for the

854
00:42:03,360 --> 00:42:08,240
Speaker 1: last motto of the year. You might have thought, Simon,

855
00:42:08,640 --> 00:42:11,160
Speaker 1: I was out last night. I wasn't going to be

856
00:42:11,200 --> 00:42:15,160
Speaker 1: able to really put my all into the motto. But

857
00:42:15,480 --> 00:42:17,440
Speaker 1: I got up super early, a little jet lagged that

858
00:42:17,440 --> 00:42:19,360
Speaker 1: I was up at three o'clock and I spent like

859
00:42:19,400 --> 00:42:22,720
Speaker 1: three hours trying to craft that last Little Caesar's motto.

860
00:42:23,680 --> 00:42:26,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, anytime you can mix in a movie about a

861
00:42:26,520 --> 00:42:28,960
Speaker 4: bouncer from the eighties into our ad reads. I'm all

862
00:42:28,960 --> 00:42:30,240
Speaker 4: for it, of course.

863
00:42:30,600 --> 00:42:33,359
Speaker 1: All right, as promised, before we get out of here,

864
00:42:33,440 --> 00:42:37,240
Speaker 1: let's bring in Action Network direct our research. Evan Abram

865
00:42:37,360 --> 00:42:41,200
Speaker 1: for the last word. Evan, don't give me any news

866
00:42:41,239 --> 00:42:41,719
Speaker 1: that I'm not going.

867
00:42:41,719 --> 00:42:41,960
Speaker 2: To like.

868
00:42:43,800 --> 00:42:46,959
Speaker 4: The last word with Evan Abrams.

869
00:42:47,600 --> 00:42:50,000
Speaker 1: We're finished talking now Today's news.

870
00:42:50,080 --> 00:42:51,920
Speaker 2: It's fine. I do have to say this. So I'm

871
00:42:51,960 --> 00:42:54,320
Speaker 2: live from Las Vegas as well, but I will agree

872
00:42:54,360 --> 00:42:58,320
Speaker 2: to one indictment. So I had a layover to Vegas,

873
00:42:58,320 --> 00:43:00,680
Speaker 2: and I did it on purpose because I wanted to

874
00:43:00,719 --> 00:43:03,640
Speaker 2: and needed to stop in Denver to gamble. I don't

875
00:43:03,640 --> 00:43:05,480
Speaker 2: think there's more of an indictment of sports betting than

876
00:43:05,520 --> 00:43:07,480
Speaker 2: me on my way to Vegas making sure I stopped

877
00:43:07,480 --> 00:43:10,320
Speaker 2: in Denver to bet, than what you talked about earlier.

878
00:43:10,400 --> 00:43:13,839
Speaker 1: So why I completely agree in Denver because you weren't

879
00:43:13,840 --> 00:43:15,360
Speaker 1: gonna be able to get the best down in Vegas.

880
00:43:15,440 --> 00:43:20,239
Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, the bed, the props, and also Denver's fantastic

881
00:43:20,640 --> 00:43:23,040
Speaker 2: in terms of like the options and different things you

882
00:43:23,080 --> 00:43:25,680
Speaker 2: can bet on. And also agree simon sports betters are

883
00:43:25,719 --> 00:43:29,280
Speaker 2: completed by vibes. People of the Blackjack story completely true. Everyone,

884
00:43:29,400 --> 00:43:32,239
Speaker 2: we all do weird things, so fantastic. All right, let's

885
00:43:32,280 --> 00:43:34,759
Speaker 2: jump into this. I'll go through a few things here,

886
00:43:35,160 --> 00:43:37,160
Speaker 2: just some fun stuff to remind us a few days

887
00:43:37,160 --> 00:43:39,319
Speaker 2: before the super Bowl. Kind of what's the stakes at

888
00:43:39,320 --> 00:43:41,880
Speaker 2: the moment. So if the Chiefs win, they'd be the

889
00:43:42,000 --> 00:43:44,799
Speaker 2: ninth back to back super Bowl champs, but also the

890
00:43:44,960 --> 00:43:48,480
Speaker 2: first to win both as underdogs, which is hilarious considering

891
00:43:48,480 --> 00:43:52,000
Speaker 2: it's Patrick Mahomes. But it's also and there's a great

892
00:43:52,040 --> 00:43:54,439
Speaker 2: note by Brandon Anderson. He wrote this on actionetwork dot

893
00:43:54,480 --> 00:43:57,880
Speaker 2: Com the hardest path to a title based on opponent

894
00:43:57,920 --> 00:44:00,960
Speaker 2: Dvoway since nineteen eighty one if the Chiefs win this,

895
00:44:01,040 --> 00:44:04,799
Speaker 2: which is incredible and a fun cover note. So Mahomes

896
00:44:05,120 --> 00:44:07,880
Speaker 2: with a win and cover third super Bowl, he's done that.

897
00:44:08,040 --> 00:44:12,160
Speaker 2: Only Brady Bradshawn Montana have won and covered three.

898
00:44:12,600 --> 00:44:15,440
Speaker 1: I do think that's another reason why I like Mahomes.

899
00:44:15,760 --> 00:44:19,319
Speaker 1: He's cha chasing legacy. The guy's what twenty seven, twenty eight,

900
00:44:19,680 --> 00:44:22,319
Speaker 1: He's chasing legacy at this point, not even thirty years old,

901
00:44:22,400 --> 00:44:25,160
Speaker 1: but he can see what's in front of him. That's

902
00:44:25,560 --> 00:44:28,680
Speaker 1: to me a massive edge. When you have that kind

903
00:44:28,719 --> 00:44:30,960
Speaker 1: of talent, and you know you can be historic.

904
00:44:31,719 --> 00:44:34,960
Speaker 2: It's also really unbelievable what the Chiefs had done historically

905
00:44:35,000 --> 00:44:37,759
Speaker 2: before him and what he's done since he's arrived. The

906
00:44:37,840 --> 00:44:40,400
Speaker 2: history wasn't great as people know, m so incredible. So

907
00:44:40,440 --> 00:44:43,160
Speaker 2: let's keep going here. So if Casey does win the

908
00:44:43,200 --> 00:44:45,239
Speaker 2: forty nine Ers, history is pretty terrible here. So they

909
00:44:45,239 --> 00:44:46,960
Speaker 2: would become a third team in Super Bowl history to

910
00:44:47,000 --> 00:44:49,960
Speaker 2: lose twice in five years with two different quarterbacks. The

911
00:44:50,040 --> 00:44:52,960
Speaker 2: Dolphins did in eighty three and eighty five with Woodley Marino,

912
00:44:53,239 --> 00:44:55,320
Speaker 2: and the Vikings did it in nineteen seventy and seventy

913
00:44:55,360 --> 00:44:58,479
Speaker 2: four with Cap and Tarkenton. So really doesn't happen often.

914
00:44:58,480 --> 00:45:00,600
Speaker 2: You could take it a step further because they also

915
00:45:00,680 --> 00:45:03,080
Speaker 2: lost previously, right the Niners. So third, it'd be the

916
00:45:03,120 --> 00:45:05,919
Speaker 2: third and twelve years with three different quarterbacks, and that's

917
00:45:05,920 --> 00:45:06,640
Speaker 2: never been done.

918
00:45:06,680 --> 00:45:08,320
Speaker 1: So who was the quarterback twelve?

919
00:45:08,360 --> 00:45:08,560
Speaker 3: Yeah?

920
00:45:08,600 --> 00:45:13,240
Speaker 2: So Kaepernick? All right, Kaepernick? This goes to your question

921
00:45:13,280 --> 00:45:16,920
Speaker 2: as well. So Rock Party twenty four years old, third

922
00:45:16,960 --> 00:45:20,439
Speaker 2: youngest quarterback to start a Super Bowl. So nineteen eighty five,

923
00:45:20,520 --> 00:45:23,239
Speaker 2: twenty three year old Marino did really well. Twenty nine

924
00:45:23,239 --> 00:45:26,440
Speaker 2: to fifty three, eighteen touchdown, did throw two picks, but

925
00:45:26,840 --> 00:45:29,600
Speaker 2: decent game. Dolphins lost. Then in two thousand and six,

926
00:45:29,719 --> 00:45:32,279
Speaker 2: Big Ben literally did nothing in the game, nine to

927
00:45:32,320 --> 00:45:34,600
Speaker 2: twenty one, one hundred and twenty three yards, no touchdowns,

928
00:45:34,600 --> 00:45:37,359
Speaker 2: two picks. Defense was incredible. They won twenty one ten,

929
00:45:37,480 --> 00:45:40,760
Speaker 2: So little bit of precedents in both directions. So honestly,

930
00:45:40,760 --> 00:45:43,120
Speaker 2: I think we can see almost anything from Party in

931
00:45:43,120 --> 00:45:45,520
Speaker 2: this game based on how they designed the plays. But

932
00:45:45,600 --> 00:45:48,600
Speaker 2: it should look better early on with Shanahan, and then

933
00:45:48,760 --> 00:45:50,640
Speaker 2: we're going to see where Party takes in my opinion,

934
00:45:51,000 --> 00:45:51,640
Speaker 2: I got one.

935
00:45:51,480 --> 00:45:52,000
Speaker 3: More for you.

936
00:45:52,280 --> 00:45:55,440
Speaker 2: So this is the eighth Super Bowl, eighth super Bowl

937
00:45:55,560 --> 00:45:59,160
Speaker 2: in history where one quarterback is playing in his first

938
00:45:59,239 --> 00:46:02,000
Speaker 2: Super Bowl facing a quarterback who's playing in his third

939
00:46:02,200 --> 00:46:05,640
Speaker 2: or more. The experience quarterback is five and two in

940
00:46:05,680 --> 00:46:09,880
Speaker 2: those seven games, the two losses both to Tom Brady.

941
00:46:10,280 --> 00:46:12,480
Speaker 2: First it was Eli Manning and the Giants in two

942
00:46:12,480 --> 00:46:15,560
Speaker 2: thousand and eight, then Nick Foles and Eagles in twenty eighteen,

943
00:46:16,080 --> 00:46:19,560
Speaker 2: and only once in those seven games was the more

944
00:46:19,680 --> 00:46:24,480
Speaker 2: experienced quarterback the underdog. Twenty sixteen, Denver's Peyton Manning beat

945
00:46:24,560 --> 00:46:27,040
Speaker 2: Cam Newton and the Panthers by two touchdowns. As four

946
00:46:27,040 --> 00:46:29,440
Speaker 2: and a half point underdog, So the presidents here is

947
00:46:29,480 --> 00:46:32,719
Speaker 2: almost incredible that you have this guy getting the two

948
00:46:32,760 --> 00:46:35,960
Speaker 2: and a half points against the other side. But also

949
00:46:36,800 --> 00:46:39,279
Speaker 2: Hertz Eagles last year he was twenty four years old.

950
00:46:39,440 --> 00:46:41,920
Speaker 2: He ended up closing as the favorite. We remember how

951
00:46:41,920 --> 00:46:44,839
Speaker 2: that ended. So pretty fun story back to back years.

952
00:46:44,840 --> 00:46:45,440
Speaker 3: Guys.

953
00:46:45,760 --> 00:46:48,919
Speaker 1: You know what's frightening Evan. You mentioned two thousand and three,

954
00:46:49,520 --> 00:46:53,919
Speaker 1: you mentioned two thousand and eight, you mentioned Ben Roethlisberger

955
00:46:53,960 --> 00:46:57,000
Speaker 1: in two thousand and six. I'm so old that was

956
00:46:57,040 --> 00:47:02,200
Speaker 1: at all of these games. That is really These sound

957
00:47:02,280 --> 00:47:06,080
Speaker 1: like they are ancient history, but they are yesterday to me.

958
00:47:06,360 --> 00:47:09,040
Speaker 1: I just want to say that as a reminder. Catch

959
00:47:09,040 --> 00:47:12,520
Speaker 1: every episode of The Favorites live on YouTube every Tuesday.

960
00:47:12,560 --> 00:47:15,720
Speaker 1: So if you're subscribing or if you're watching on YouTube,

961
00:47:15,760 --> 00:47:18,000
Speaker 1: don't forget to give us a like and subscribe to

962
00:47:18,080 --> 00:47:23,040
Speaker 1: the Action Network YouTube page. The Favorites podcast is presented

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Speaker 1: Download us from Spotify, a podcast wherever you get your pods,

977
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Speaker 1: Rate review, subscribe, leaves five stars, Shay. What everyone feedback

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Speaker 1: is a gift. Good luck in the super Bowl with

979
00:48:11,480 --> 00:48:14,600
Speaker 1: all your bests this weekend everybody until Tuesday. Love You.

980
00:48:22,680 --> 00:48:26,120
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

981
00:48:26,560 --> 00:48:29,400
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