1 00:00:01,320 --> 00:00:02,360 Speaker 1: The volume. 2 00:00:14,880 --> 00:00:17,800 Speaker 2: What is going on Everybody, John middlecop three and our 3 00:00:17,920 --> 00:00:20,599 Speaker 2: podcast How Are We Doing? Presented by my friends at 4 00:00:20,680 --> 00:00:24,599 Speaker 2: Zone Pouches. Today we will be talking to Stucky. We 5 00:00:24,720 --> 00:00:29,440 Speaker 2: recorded on Wednesday. If you're listening to this, either headed 6 00:00:29,480 --> 00:00:31,480 Speaker 2: to the hospital in the hospital, maybe have a kid 7 00:00:31,640 --> 00:00:33,839 Speaker 2: by now. Maybe I don't yet. We'll see if we 8 00:00:33,880 --> 00:00:37,240 Speaker 2: get pushed back for emergencies, but we are. I don't 9 00:00:37,240 --> 00:00:39,680 Speaker 2: mean our emergency. I'm just saying if C section, if 10 00:00:39,680 --> 00:00:41,960 Speaker 2: there are other emergency bursts, we get pushed back. So 11 00:00:42,000 --> 00:00:45,160 Speaker 2: it's a fluid situation. But we'll have Stucky on today 12 00:00:45,240 --> 00:00:47,879 Speaker 2: talk about the games. We'll look back a little bit 13 00:00:47,920 --> 00:00:51,240 Speaker 2: and talk about at the end the College Football National Championship. 14 00:00:51,720 --> 00:00:57,160 Speaker 2: Also up on Netflix, Stucky's Netflix debut, and yeah, so 15 00:00:57,200 --> 00:00:58,600 Speaker 2: make sure you check that out. We have all of 16 00:00:58,640 --> 00:01:03,040 Speaker 2: our content up there obviously. If you're listening audio, Spotify, Apple, 17 00:01:03,280 --> 00:01:05,640 Speaker 2: subscribe to the podcast. If you listen on Collins, I 18 00:01:05,680 --> 00:01:10,600 Speaker 2: appreciate you doing that. Tomorrow we recorded with Josh Pate. 19 00:01:12,440 --> 00:01:14,920 Speaker 2: It looks like ESPN is about to build a show 20 00:01:14,959 --> 00:01:17,680 Speaker 2: around the guy Fellow ball Brother. That will be tomorrow 21 00:01:18,319 --> 00:01:20,360 Speaker 2: and yeah, it's a game plan for the week. So 22 00:01:20,440 --> 00:01:23,920 Speaker 2: let's just you guys know him. He's here every week. 23 00:01:24,319 --> 00:01:26,479 Speaker 2: Let's dive into my main man, Stucky. Okay, we've been 24 00:01:26,480 --> 00:01:29,240 Speaker 2: doing this every week for years. For those of you 25 00:01:29,360 --> 00:01:32,520 Speaker 2: watching that are new to this, this is my good 26 00:01:32,520 --> 00:01:36,920 Speaker 2: friend Stucky. He is a fellow degenerate gambler, works for 27 00:01:36,959 --> 00:01:40,279 Speaker 2: the Action Network. You can find him all over the place, 28 00:01:41,160 --> 00:01:45,280 Speaker 2: big bets on campus, guys, dialed in on college football 29 00:01:45,280 --> 00:01:49,160 Speaker 2: and basketball, and knows the National Football League from a 30 00:01:49,200 --> 00:01:52,960 Speaker 2: gambling standpoint as well as anyone I've ever been associated with. 31 00:01:54,640 --> 00:01:59,120 Speaker 2: So we do this all throughout the football season. And 32 00:01:59,320 --> 00:02:02,200 Speaker 2: he's he just had a baby as well, So he's 33 00:02:02,240 --> 00:02:05,279 Speaker 2: got a new baby, he's got basketball season in full swing, 34 00:02:05,360 --> 00:02:08,840 Speaker 2: he's got the NFL playoffs. Probably slept, my guess would 35 00:02:08,840 --> 00:02:14,720 Speaker 2: be over under eight hours this entire week and going 36 00:02:14,840 --> 00:02:19,560 Speaker 2: right into a massive, massive weekend for the National Football League. Stuckey, 37 00:02:20,000 --> 00:02:20,880 Speaker 2: how are you holding up? 38 00:02:20,960 --> 00:02:27,520 Speaker 1: Yeah under on that and yeah, everything's going well. Had 39 00:02:27,520 --> 00:02:29,960 Speaker 1: a rough I had a rough Wildcard weekend. I loved, 40 00:02:31,160 --> 00:02:34,639 Speaker 1: loved my card and I mean JAG's first half was 41 00:02:34,680 --> 00:02:38,800 Speaker 1: one of my favorite bets of the year, and Jack's 42 00:02:38,800 --> 00:02:41,280 Speaker 1: first half money line had him I think plus one 43 00:02:41,360 --> 00:02:43,720 Speaker 1: h two closed like minus one forty five, They missed 44 00:02:43,720 --> 00:02:46,359 Speaker 1: a field goal, Parker Washingt gets hurt, Trevor Lawrence's shin 45 00:02:46,520 --> 00:02:49,480 Speaker 1: goes down. That was rough. The Packers were one of 46 00:02:49,480 --> 00:02:54,119 Speaker 1: my favorite bets. That was absolute pain. It was only 47 00:02:54,160 --> 00:02:57,560 Speaker 1: the second time in playoff history a team has scored 48 00:02:57,600 --> 00:03:00,520 Speaker 1: twenty five or more points in the four, fourth quarter 49 00:03:01,600 --> 00:03:05,600 Speaker 1: ind or overtime in a fifteen plus point comeback. The 50 00:03:05,680 --> 00:03:10,280 Speaker 1: other was the Falcons against the Patriots and the Super Bowl, 51 00:03:10,919 --> 00:03:12,919 Speaker 1: or I should say the Patriots against the Falcons super 52 00:03:12,919 --> 00:03:15,519 Speaker 1: Bowl when they were down twenty eight three. That was 53 00:03:15,560 --> 00:03:17,840 Speaker 1: one of my biggest losses ever. I had the Falcons 54 00:03:17,880 --> 00:03:19,920 Speaker 1: plus four and a half, one of the most painful 55 00:03:20,120 --> 00:03:23,960 Speaker 1: losses and one of the biggest financially. So that was 56 00:03:24,000 --> 00:03:26,040 Speaker 1: like reliving that. 57 00:03:27,160 --> 00:03:30,119 Speaker 2: So how cocky were you at twenty eight three that day? 58 00:03:31,280 --> 00:03:34,920 Speaker 1: Yeah? I thought it was over. And I mean this 59 00:03:35,040 --> 00:03:38,080 Speaker 1: sequence of events that had to happen. I mean that 60 00:03:38,800 --> 00:03:42,000 Speaker 1: this is what Bears games have been like all season. 61 00:03:42,160 --> 00:03:46,720 Speaker 1: But you had McManus missing kicks left and right the 62 00:03:46,800 --> 00:03:49,520 Speaker 1: fourth and eight that was the game you. I mean, 63 00:03:49,520 --> 00:03:52,080 Speaker 1: you have to give Caleb credit for that throw on 64 00:03:52,240 --> 00:03:54,800 Speaker 1: fourth and eight, But if they don't call the false start, 65 00:03:54,840 --> 00:03:57,480 Speaker 1: the ball snaps over his head. The game's over if 66 00:03:57,480 --> 00:03:59,240 Speaker 1: they don't convert that fourth and eight. The Packers of 67 00:03:59,320 --> 00:04:02,880 Speaker 1: the ball at midfield, up eleven with six to go. 68 00:04:03,680 --> 00:04:06,960 Speaker 1: But yeah, I thought it was over. And then when 69 00:04:06,960 --> 00:04:09,440 Speaker 1: they scored again, then I got a little nervous. Then 70 00:04:09,480 --> 00:04:10,920 Speaker 1: when I scored again to go up eleven, I thought 71 00:04:10,920 --> 00:04:12,640 Speaker 1: it was over. But then after that fourth and eight, 72 00:04:12,640 --> 00:04:15,280 Speaker 1: I was like, you never know this Bear team. I've 73 00:04:15,280 --> 00:04:17,320 Speaker 1: seen this story. And then they get the two point conversion. 74 00:04:17,360 --> 00:04:19,920 Speaker 1: The Packers miss more kicks. I mean, if you think 75 00:04:19,920 --> 00:04:22,680 Speaker 1: about it, if they just the margins are so thin 76 00:04:22,880 --> 00:04:25,280 Speaker 1: in the NFL playoffs from a betting perspective and just 77 00:04:25,480 --> 00:04:29,760 Speaker 1: in how these games are decided. And I mean the 78 00:04:29,880 --> 00:04:31,560 Speaker 1: Jags they have an all Pro kicker, they make twenty 79 00:04:31,640 --> 00:04:32,800 Speaker 1: kicks in a row. They miss a kick at the 80 00:04:32,839 --> 00:04:35,600 Speaker 1: end of the first half, which is like a shock 81 00:04:35,600 --> 00:04:37,960 Speaker 1: you miss even though it was from like fifty two. Yeah, 82 00:04:38,080 --> 00:04:41,120 Speaker 1: that ends up being the margin the Packers if they 83 00:04:41,200 --> 00:04:43,400 Speaker 1: make any of those kicks, if Ecvanness makes any of 84 00:04:43,440 --> 00:04:46,400 Speaker 1: those kicks at the extra point or any of the 85 00:04:46,440 --> 00:04:48,400 Speaker 1: field goals, they miss a kick at the other the 86 00:04:48,400 --> 00:04:51,600 Speaker 1: first half too. Then at the end when they're at 87 00:04:51,600 --> 00:04:54,760 Speaker 1: the twenty yard line, I mean McManus would probably miss 88 00:04:54,800 --> 00:04:56,760 Speaker 1: it again, but you could kick a fuel goal either 89 00:04:56,800 --> 00:04:59,200 Speaker 1: tied or win it, and you don't need a touchdown there. 90 00:05:00,160 --> 00:05:03,240 Speaker 1: So the margins are very thin. And then I had 91 00:05:05,040 --> 00:05:07,480 Speaker 1: the Chargers, which I was just dead wrong on. I mean, 92 00:05:07,720 --> 00:05:11,880 Speaker 1: Herbert was. He was bad, horrifying. I mean, you could 93 00:05:12,120 --> 00:05:15,000 Speaker 1: blame the offensive line, you could blame the game plan. 94 00:05:15,080 --> 00:05:17,080 Speaker 1: I don't care like that. In the first half, he 95 00:05:17,120 --> 00:05:20,839 Speaker 1: had pockets to throw, he had clean pockets, and he 96 00:05:20,839 --> 00:05:22,960 Speaker 1: couldn't make the throws. He looked gun shy. He looked 97 00:05:23,000 --> 00:05:25,440 Speaker 1: like a rookie. I mean, that was the worst I've 98 00:05:25,440 --> 00:05:29,840 Speaker 1: ever seen him play. And credit to the Patriots, apparently 99 00:05:29,880 --> 00:05:33,480 Speaker 1: they were the charters. Offense was confused, but Herbert misthrows, 100 00:05:33,520 --> 00:05:38,440 Speaker 1: missed wide open guys and just looked gunshy. So yeah, 101 00:05:38,440 --> 00:05:42,159 Speaker 1: it didn't get much right on the weekend. Did have 102 00:05:42,200 --> 00:05:44,560 Speaker 1: some Eagles forty nine ers under which I had a sweat. 103 00:05:45,080 --> 00:05:48,400 Speaker 1: But yeah, a couple of bad breaks, but that that'll happen. 104 00:05:49,080 --> 00:05:53,799 Speaker 2: What were you saying? A couple situations the Jags game 105 00:05:54,480 --> 00:05:57,240 Speaker 2: when they only have the one time out and there's 106 00:05:57,240 --> 00:06:02,160 Speaker 2: a minute left. Would you have knelt the ball, made 107 00:06:02,240 --> 00:06:04,320 Speaker 2: him burn it and then you know, get it down 108 00:06:04,400 --> 00:06:06,000 Speaker 2: or I guess they were out of timeout, so you 109 00:06:06,080 --> 00:06:08,320 Speaker 2: kneel the ball, you get it to like what thirty 110 00:06:08,360 --> 00:06:11,000 Speaker 2: second range to be safe, to give yourselves a little time, 111 00:06:11,720 --> 00:06:13,440 Speaker 2: I thought, And I get it, you're on the road. 112 00:06:13,520 --> 00:06:15,640 Speaker 2: But I it's like, man, this this team is a 113 00:06:15,640 --> 00:06:20,840 Speaker 2: great kicker. The kickoff rule now shortens the field. I'm 114 00:06:20,880 --> 00:06:23,520 Speaker 2: all for. I get it. You can't get tricky, but 115 00:06:23,560 --> 00:06:26,240 Speaker 2: you have the best player you know on the planet 116 00:06:26,240 --> 00:06:29,960 Speaker 2: who's dominating this game. The touch push had been working 117 00:06:30,760 --> 00:06:32,720 Speaker 2: or the josh push or whatever you want to call it. 118 00:06:32,760 --> 00:06:36,159 Speaker 2: That that was a pretty big risk by McDermott. That 119 00:06:36,360 --> 00:06:38,120 Speaker 2: ended up paying off because they get the pick whatever 120 00:06:38,160 --> 00:06:39,919 Speaker 2: a couple of plays later. But I was like, damn, 121 00:06:39,960 --> 00:06:41,400 Speaker 2: that's that was crazy. 122 00:06:41,440 --> 00:06:45,039 Speaker 1: I thought one thousand percent. I tweeted it out immediately. 123 00:06:45,120 --> 00:06:50,040 Speaker 1: I said, you have to quick knee and then score. 124 00:06:50,720 --> 00:06:53,400 Speaker 2: What would you run it down to like twenty five Yeah. 125 00:06:53,360 --> 00:06:55,440 Speaker 1: Twenty five seconds? Because you've also had a time out. 126 00:06:55,880 --> 00:06:57,440 Speaker 2: Yeah, so they had a couple. 127 00:06:58,400 --> 00:07:00,640 Speaker 1: Yeah, So like time was it an issue for you? 128 00:07:01,040 --> 00:07:05,040 Speaker 1: But just think about it from a probability standpoint, Like 129 00:07:05,720 --> 00:07:13,119 Speaker 1: if the chances of you scoring a touchdown on second, third, 130 00:07:13,160 --> 00:07:16,520 Speaker 1: and fourth in goal, you can get three chances with 131 00:07:16,640 --> 00:07:20,040 Speaker 1: Josh Allen and the Twitsch I mean is ninety nine percent, 132 00:07:20,880 --> 00:07:23,400 Speaker 1: maybe ninety eight percent. Like you could have a false 133 00:07:23,440 --> 00:07:27,080 Speaker 1: start right there could be a fumble and snap that 134 00:07:27,080 --> 00:07:30,280 Speaker 1: could happen on first down too, but that those chances 135 00:07:30,800 --> 00:07:36,560 Speaker 1: are so much higher than the chances of you scoring 136 00:07:36,640 --> 00:07:40,480 Speaker 1: right away and then kicking off. There's a chance. The 137 00:07:40,560 --> 00:07:43,840 Speaker 1: Jags started the thirty five that Cam Little was kicking, 138 00:07:44,240 --> 00:07:48,720 Speaker 1: was making seventy yarders in pregame warmups. He's two of 139 00:07:48,760 --> 00:07:50,920 Speaker 1: two from sixty seven plus in his career. The rest 140 00:07:50,920 --> 00:07:53,400 Speaker 1: of the NFL. In NFL history, all of the kickers 141 00:07:53,440 --> 00:07:56,120 Speaker 1: are oh of twenty two from sixty seven plus. You 142 00:07:56,320 --> 00:07:59,120 Speaker 1: might only need one first down to get a fugel range. 143 00:07:59,640 --> 00:08:02,920 Speaker 1: That probability is so much higher. So they they completely 144 00:08:02,960 --> 00:08:04,480 Speaker 1: botched it that they got away with it because Lawrence 145 00:08:05,160 --> 00:08:06,960 Speaker 1: threw a pick, but he also missed the touch There 146 00:08:07,000 --> 00:08:08,760 Speaker 1: was a wide open guy on that play that could 147 00:08:08,760 --> 00:08:12,000 Speaker 1: have ran for a touchdown. I thought McDermott completely botched 148 00:08:12,080 --> 00:08:15,160 Speaker 1: that you have to go down there and the other 149 00:08:15,800 --> 00:08:18,000 Speaker 1: there's two other reasons why you know that was the 150 00:08:18,040 --> 00:08:22,840 Speaker 1: bad move. That was the incorrect move from a game 151 00:08:22,880 --> 00:08:30,960 Speaker 1: theory perspective. One, the Jags money line where the Bills 152 00:08:31,080 --> 00:08:34,000 Speaker 1: live money line in the live market. When they scored 153 00:08:34,040 --> 00:08:39,760 Speaker 1: on first down, their odds went down to win the game, 154 00:08:39,840 --> 00:08:43,280 Speaker 1: so like the market would say, okay, now, the probability 155 00:08:43,320 --> 00:08:46,120 Speaker 1: then winning the game is lower than if they would 156 00:08:46,160 --> 00:08:48,080 Speaker 1: have waited. And number two, the Jags let them score, 157 00:08:48,960 --> 00:08:52,800 Speaker 1: so that the Jags knew that they needed to let 158 00:08:52,960 --> 00:08:55,920 Speaker 1: the Bills score there to give them the best chance 159 00:08:56,320 --> 00:08:59,360 Speaker 1: to tie the game into force overtime. So yeah, it 160 00:08:59,440 --> 00:09:03,960 Speaker 1: was the wrong move. McDermot almost pulled a you know, 161 00:09:04,000 --> 00:09:07,800 Speaker 1: a Chiefs thirteen second repeat from a couple of years 162 00:09:07,840 --> 00:09:11,520 Speaker 1: ago when they messed up the kickoff and then they 163 00:09:11,640 --> 00:09:13,719 Speaker 1: let Kelsey catch up pass up the seam to get 164 00:09:13,720 --> 00:09:16,120 Speaker 1: a field goal range. Now, no one will ever talk 165 00:09:16,160 --> 00:09:18,360 Speaker 1: about it again because Lawrence thro a pick. But I 166 00:09:18,400 --> 00:09:22,360 Speaker 1: thought it was clearly the wrong move, but they got 167 00:09:22,360 --> 00:09:25,800 Speaker 1: away with it. Allen was incredible, and I mean, yeah, 168 00:09:25,840 --> 00:09:29,280 Speaker 1: you just have to go down there. There's no way 169 00:09:29,280 --> 00:09:34,400 Speaker 1: that they're stopping Allen on three downs from the one. 170 00:09:35,320 --> 00:09:39,120 Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean totally with you. Obviously the Eagle game, 171 00:09:40,400 --> 00:09:43,120 Speaker 2: you know, to lose to that forty nine er team 172 00:09:43,200 --> 00:09:47,240 Speaker 2: wallow from practice squads to Eric Kendricks, who was kind 173 00:09:47,240 --> 00:09:49,600 Speaker 2: of out of the league, you know, trending toward his 174 00:09:49,679 --> 00:09:54,320 Speaker 2: career being over making game winning plays against you, you 175 00:09:54,360 --> 00:09:56,400 Speaker 2: know the time. You know, Kyle is not a trick 176 00:09:56,440 --> 00:09:58,520 Speaker 2: play guy. You know, I can count on one hand 177 00:09:58,520 --> 00:10:00,680 Speaker 2: the trick plays he's running the last five year. But 178 00:10:00,720 --> 00:10:02,800 Speaker 2: they've all come in big spots. Won the Super Bowl, 179 00:10:03,440 --> 00:10:06,960 Speaker 2: won in that famous uh debo, threw a pass to 180 00:10:07,080 --> 00:10:10,480 Speaker 2: Jennings against the Rams week eighteen. The Niners had to 181 00:10:10,480 --> 00:10:12,240 Speaker 2: win to get in the division. They were getting blown 182 00:10:12,240 --> 00:10:14,240 Speaker 2: out in the first half. I was actually at that game. 183 00:10:14,960 --> 00:10:19,040 Speaker 2: So he's not Kyle's you know, not some you know 184 00:10:19,080 --> 00:10:21,240 Speaker 2: Ben Johnson with the trick play. So when he busts 185 00:10:21,280 --> 00:10:24,240 Speaker 2: him out, you know he clearly he's on tilt, knowing 186 00:10:24,280 --> 00:10:26,439 Speaker 2: his season was, you know, on the line. Obviously in 187 00:10:26,480 --> 00:10:30,400 Speaker 2: a playoff game, it is, but the underdog mentality. We'll 188 00:10:30,400 --> 00:10:32,160 Speaker 2: get into that game a little bit later. Against Seattle, 189 00:10:32,240 --> 00:10:33,760 Speaker 2: I think, you know, they might need like a fake 190 00:10:33,800 --> 00:10:36,000 Speaker 2: pun or a fake field goal. They should be using 191 00:10:36,040 --> 00:10:38,880 Speaker 2: some of that type stuff. This week potentially, but man, 192 00:10:38,960 --> 00:10:41,240 Speaker 2: that was you know, looking back, it's one of those 193 00:10:42,080 --> 00:10:44,400 Speaker 2: I didn't have much faith just because and part of 194 00:10:44,400 --> 00:10:48,120 Speaker 2: it was recency biased. It wasn't even just the Seattle game. 195 00:10:48,160 --> 00:10:50,120 Speaker 2: It was a week before against Chicago when they were 196 00:10:50,160 --> 00:10:51,920 Speaker 2: just scoring it will You're like, this defense just out 197 00:10:51,920 --> 00:10:55,600 Speaker 2: of bodies. But I mean, what you know, we talk 198 00:10:55,640 --> 00:10:58,600 Speaker 2: a lot about coaching performances, but Kyle and Sola coming 199 00:10:58,640 --> 00:11:01,120 Speaker 2: out of that, I mean, that's a pretty legendary performance 200 00:11:01,160 --> 00:11:02,000 Speaker 2: by those two guys. 201 00:11:03,120 --> 00:11:08,320 Speaker 1: Yeah, unbelievable. They deserve all the credit, that's the beautiful 202 00:11:08,360 --> 00:11:11,480 Speaker 1: thing about and it makes it tough to bet on. 203 00:11:12,240 --> 00:11:14,520 Speaker 1: You know, obviously lines are really efficient this time of 204 00:11:14,520 --> 00:11:17,920 Speaker 1: the year, but this is you know, I'll spend all 205 00:11:17,920 --> 00:11:21,960 Speaker 1: week diving into tendencies and NFL teams change on a 206 00:11:21,960 --> 00:11:23,880 Speaker 1: week to week basis, but especially in the playoffs, you 207 00:11:23,920 --> 00:11:27,079 Speaker 1: can flip, right, and that's when you can flip everything 208 00:11:27,920 --> 00:11:32,240 Speaker 1: these highest leverage games. But I thought Sala did a 209 00:11:32,240 --> 00:11:37,040 Speaker 1: tremendous job with his fifth, sixth, and seventh string linebackers, 210 00:11:37,080 --> 00:11:41,240 Speaker 1: and you know, part of what you know, like Salid, 211 00:11:41,240 --> 00:11:42,880 Speaker 1: there's a ton of credit for what he's working with him, 212 00:11:43,000 --> 00:11:44,800 Speaker 1: what he's done all year, but part of that was 213 00:11:45,160 --> 00:11:47,480 Speaker 1: the story of the Eagles all year. Yeah, I mean, 214 00:11:47,480 --> 00:11:51,120 Speaker 1: this is a team they went twenty they went to 215 00:11:51,120 --> 00:11:53,439 Speaker 1: stretch after they went on a ninety six yard touchdown drive, 216 00:11:53,480 --> 00:11:57,280 Speaker 1: They went twenty seven plays for twenty four yards over. 217 00:11:57,320 --> 00:11:59,400 Speaker 1: It just happened all year, no matter who they played, 218 00:11:59,720 --> 00:12:02,839 Speaker 1: and it is just how many hitches can you run? 219 00:12:04,160 --> 00:12:07,199 Speaker 1: They couldn't run the ball on anybody. But I thought 220 00:12:07,240 --> 00:12:13,760 Speaker 1: Shanahan because that Eagles defense, which was healthy too, was 221 00:12:13,800 --> 00:12:20,480 Speaker 1: one of the most elite units in the NFL all year. Additionally, 222 00:12:20,640 --> 00:12:24,720 Speaker 1: you had wind going up against that defense, going up 223 00:12:24,960 --> 00:12:28,120 Speaker 1: against a Fangio defense that in foe head to head 224 00:12:28,160 --> 00:12:31,560 Speaker 1: meetings Shanahan never cleared fifteen points to average ten point 225 00:12:31,559 --> 00:12:36,520 Speaker 1: two five points per game, clearly had Shannan's number, so 226 00:12:36,679 --> 00:12:38,880 Speaker 1: he made I just thought he called a hell of 227 00:12:38,920 --> 00:12:40,880 Speaker 1: a game, used a trick play at the right time. 228 00:12:42,400 --> 00:12:43,840 Speaker 1: I didn't think they were gonna be able to hit 229 00:12:43,880 --> 00:12:47,440 Speaker 1: that many pass explosives. I mean, DeMarcus Robinson looked like 230 00:12:48,360 --> 00:12:52,160 Speaker 1: you know, Jerry Rice out there, So I thought Shanahan 231 00:12:52,679 --> 00:12:55,839 Speaker 1: was unbelievable to lose kittle two to go do that 232 00:12:55,960 --> 00:12:59,920 Speaker 1: drive to take the lead was awesome, but it also 233 00:13:00,280 --> 00:13:04,320 Speaker 1: was a fitting end and a micro cosm of the 234 00:13:04,440 --> 00:13:08,600 Speaker 1: entire season for the Eagles, although I didn't expect the 235 00:13:08,640 --> 00:13:14,480 Speaker 1: defense to get torched like that, but the offense it 236 00:13:14,720 --> 00:13:19,280 Speaker 1: was a lot overdue that that's how they would that 237 00:13:19,280 --> 00:13:22,000 Speaker 1: they would end their season because Patula and that offense, 238 00:13:22,040 --> 00:13:24,680 Speaker 1: it was just a disaster from from day one. 239 00:13:25,559 --> 00:13:29,000 Speaker 2: Patula and you've been rattling off stats, like statistically he 240 00:13:29,160 --> 00:13:32,040 Speaker 2: is dramatically worse than the Ben Johnson offense, which was 241 00:13:32,080 --> 00:13:35,480 Speaker 2: obviously struggled. But the quarterback has to get some ship. 242 00:13:35,559 --> 00:13:38,320 Speaker 2: I mean he he doesn't. He doesn't want to run anymore. 243 00:13:38,400 --> 00:13:41,079 Speaker 2: That that would have been a game Lamar Jackson or 244 00:13:41,120 --> 00:13:42,920 Speaker 2: Josh Allen would have ran for eighty five to one 245 00:13:42,960 --> 00:13:47,760 Speaker 2: hundred yards. He could one play they got called back. 246 00:13:48,200 --> 00:13:50,480 Speaker 2: He could have had that play all game long. Quarterback 247 00:13:50,520 --> 00:13:53,120 Speaker 2: sweeps quarterback. But he doesn't want to do it, clearly 248 00:13:53,200 --> 00:13:55,280 Speaker 2: because it's not like the staff's like, let's just out 249 00:13:55,320 --> 00:13:58,920 Speaker 2: run Jalen. They're not that dumb. It's the quarterback. I 250 00:13:59,000 --> 00:14:01,880 Speaker 2: told this to Colin on Sunday night. I think he 251 00:14:01,960 --> 00:14:05,079 Speaker 2: views himself like Russell did, like once they won the 252 00:14:05,080 --> 00:14:07,280 Speaker 2: Super like I'm a pot quarterback. I'm not running anymore. 253 00:14:07,880 --> 00:14:09,880 Speaker 2: And Russell was even less of a runner than like 254 00:14:09,960 --> 00:14:12,960 Speaker 2: Jalen is a natural runner in the open field. But 255 00:14:13,000 --> 00:14:14,760 Speaker 2: he just doesn't want to do it because you should 256 00:14:14,760 --> 00:14:18,400 Speaker 2: have called like minimum, like five quarterback powers. A couple 257 00:14:18,400 --> 00:14:20,440 Speaker 2: of the probably would have hit for like twenty yards. 258 00:14:20,720 --> 00:14:23,320 Speaker 1: Yeah it was that was the defense that you do 259 00:14:23,360 --> 00:14:28,560 Speaker 1: it against. And yeah there's a patula, doesn't he gets it. 260 00:14:28,880 --> 00:14:32,200 Speaker 1: He deserves a ton of blame, but certainly not all 261 00:14:32,240 --> 00:14:35,560 Speaker 1: of it. Heerts should get a lot. The offensive line 262 00:14:35,560 --> 00:14:38,040 Speaker 1: also is way worse. I mean, how many times gets 263 00:14:38,080 --> 00:14:40,800 Speaker 1: no matter who they played is Barkley. It's not like 264 00:14:40,840 --> 00:14:42,680 Speaker 1: Barkley lost a step. You can see him once he 265 00:14:42,760 --> 00:14:45,920 Speaker 1: hit once he is a hole, still has the same explosives. 266 00:14:45,960 --> 00:14:48,280 Speaker 1: How many times all year they hand the ball off 267 00:14:48,280 --> 00:14:50,240 Speaker 1: the Barkley and immediately he's. 268 00:14:50,360 --> 00:14:53,000 Speaker 2: Led the league led? The league touches behind the backfield 269 00:14:53,480 --> 00:14:54,680 Speaker 2: line of scrimmage. 270 00:14:54,240 --> 00:14:57,000 Speaker 1: And like the forty nine ers run defense a team 271 00:14:57,040 --> 00:14:59,400 Speaker 1: that doesn't get pressure. They were in the backfield all night. 272 00:14:59,400 --> 00:15:04,040 Speaker 1: So the offensive line deserves some blame as well. And 273 00:15:04,080 --> 00:15:10,760 Speaker 1: then I think Siriani and how I don't know his 274 00:15:11,520 --> 00:15:15,760 Speaker 1: the offense was almost it kind of took on like 275 00:15:15,840 --> 00:15:18,920 Speaker 1: his arrogance, like they would just they felt like they 276 00:15:18,920 --> 00:15:20,880 Speaker 1: were just like too cool for school sometimes and they 277 00:15:20,880 --> 00:15:23,080 Speaker 1: would put a drive together and then they would just 278 00:15:23,280 --> 00:15:26,920 Speaker 1: be lax days. There was no never any energy. But 279 00:15:27,040 --> 00:15:30,000 Speaker 1: when he went after he went after A J. Brown 280 00:15:31,160 --> 00:15:33,480 Speaker 1: for not getting off the sidelines, they get in each 281 00:15:33,480 --> 00:15:37,240 Speaker 1: other's face and then A J. Brown doesn't have to 282 00:15:37,280 --> 00:15:38,920 Speaker 1: catch the rest of the day like he A J. 283 00:15:39,080 --> 00:15:41,320 Speaker 1: Brown is. It seems like he's that type of guy 284 00:15:41,320 --> 00:15:45,360 Speaker 1: that is just like all right, I'm checking out of here, Like, yeah, 285 00:15:45,400 --> 00:15:48,720 Speaker 1: you have to know how to handle the personalities of 286 00:15:49,000 --> 00:15:51,720 Speaker 1: your team. I would be shocked if he's back in 287 00:15:51,760 --> 00:15:54,600 Speaker 1: Philly if is stuck you. 288 00:15:54,680 --> 00:15:56,840 Speaker 2: But AJ Brown is a lock to be traded in 289 00:15:56,920 --> 00:15:59,840 Speaker 2: the next probably after the combine, it'll be announced he's 290 00:15:59,840 --> 00:16:01,160 Speaker 2: been has it has to. 291 00:16:01,080 --> 00:16:05,320 Speaker 1: Be, But like, yeah, what a waste you have? They 292 00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:08,600 Speaker 1: have talent like you have A J. Brown, Devonte Smith, 293 00:16:09,040 --> 00:16:12,160 Speaker 1: Saquon Barkley, you know, Dallas Goddard on paper of one 294 00:16:12,160 --> 00:16:15,600 Speaker 1: of the better offensive lines and then what a waste 295 00:16:16,600 --> 00:16:19,120 Speaker 1: for that offense and a talented roster. But credits are 296 00:16:19,160 --> 00:16:22,320 Speaker 1: the forty nine ers for going on the road and 297 00:16:22,320 --> 00:16:24,280 Speaker 1: getting a win that you know, not a lot of 298 00:16:24,280 --> 00:16:27,320 Speaker 1: people saw, including myself. Uh, it's all happening. 299 00:16:27,720 --> 00:16:29,520 Speaker 2: Do you consider yourself you know when people said the 300 00:16:29,600 --> 00:16:31,960 Speaker 2: sharps aron so and so, do you consider yourself as sharp? 301 00:16:33,560 --> 00:16:40,880 Speaker 1: Uh? I would? I mean yeah, I would say so. 302 00:16:43,240 --> 00:16:47,000 Speaker 1: And it's it's it's all round like there's gonna be when. 303 00:16:47,480 --> 00:16:48,760 Speaker 1: One of the things that I will say is that 304 00:16:48,800 --> 00:16:55,240 Speaker 1: when like last week the books they said the sharp 305 00:16:55,320 --> 00:16:59,560 Speaker 1: sides were like the Jags, Pittsburgh Packers, Ye had the 306 00:16:59,640 --> 00:17:01,960 Speaker 1: steel I wasn't on the Steelers, but I was on 307 00:17:02,000 --> 00:17:05,200 Speaker 1: the Jags, the Packers, the Eagles at an early number, 308 00:17:07,440 --> 00:17:13,840 Speaker 1: and so I tend to be on similar sides. But 309 00:17:13,880 --> 00:17:17,080 Speaker 1: the number one. There's two two key points here. The 310 00:17:17,160 --> 00:17:21,359 Speaker 1: numbers matter. So like when sports mustile to come out 311 00:17:21,400 --> 00:17:23,760 Speaker 1: and say like are sharper accounts and these are accounts 312 00:17:23,760 --> 00:17:27,159 Speaker 1: that are that are respected and that they they'll move on. 313 00:17:27,840 --> 00:17:30,320 Speaker 1: And you know, you could come in just a guy 314 00:17:30,359 --> 00:17:33,520 Speaker 1: off the street or Floyd Mayweather and bet even way 315 00:17:33,520 --> 00:17:35,280 Speaker 1: bigger than some of these respect accounts and they're not 316 00:17:35,280 --> 00:17:37,360 Speaker 1: going to move off it. But these sharp accounts that win, 317 00:17:37,920 --> 00:17:41,560 Speaker 1: they'll they'll move the line or respect it. Based on 318 00:17:41,600 --> 00:17:45,040 Speaker 1: where some of these accounts are betting, but the number one. 319 00:17:45,080 --> 00:17:48,480 Speaker 1: The numbers matter, So like there was there was sharp 320 00:17:48,520 --> 00:17:50,399 Speaker 1: money on the Eagles, but that was you know, it 321 00:17:50,480 --> 00:17:53,119 Speaker 1: opened three and a half, it got up to six. 322 00:17:53,200 --> 00:17:56,240 Speaker 1: There all there will also was some sharp money that 323 00:17:56,320 --> 00:18:00,679 Speaker 1: came in on the forty nine ers. That's right, So 324 00:18:00,760 --> 00:18:04,520 Speaker 1: numbers matter, there's different entry points, and then there's also 325 00:18:04,600 --> 00:18:08,320 Speaker 1: gonna be conflicting. You know, some sharp groups might like 326 00:18:09,359 --> 00:18:11,159 Speaker 1: you know, like the Jags, but there was also some 327 00:18:11,160 --> 00:18:12,760 Speaker 1: short money that came into the Bills when they got 328 00:18:12,760 --> 00:18:16,840 Speaker 1: to plus two, plus two and a half. So all 329 00:18:16,920 --> 00:18:19,639 Speaker 1: that is just speaking in generals. But it was a 330 00:18:19,720 --> 00:18:24,960 Speaker 1: rough weekend for a lot of sharp betters and uh 331 00:18:25,680 --> 00:18:28,560 Speaker 1: including myself. But you know that's what happens in small, 332 00:18:28,720 --> 00:18:30,680 Speaker 1: small sample size. You really just try to get the 333 00:18:30,720 --> 00:18:32,120 Speaker 1: best of the number, which I did so I can't 334 00:18:32,119 --> 00:18:34,600 Speaker 1: complain too much. And then you're you're you're betting on 335 00:18:35,600 --> 00:18:38,520 Speaker 1: football games with small margins at an oblong ball. Sometimes 336 00:18:38,520 --> 00:18:42,360 Speaker 1: you're gonna get bounces, sometimes you're not. But yeah, that's 337 00:18:42,600 --> 00:18:48,320 Speaker 1: I would assume this week for the sharp sides, I 338 00:18:48,320 --> 00:18:51,200 Speaker 1: don't even know. I would assume, like New England that 339 00:18:51,359 --> 00:18:54,560 Speaker 1: under it opened under three. I'm there was probably some 340 00:18:54,720 --> 00:18:56,120 Speaker 1: sharp early money. 341 00:18:57,440 --> 00:18:57,880 Speaker 2: Rams. 342 00:18:59,640 --> 00:19:02,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the Rams are probably gonna have more 343 00:19:02,600 --> 00:19:09,720 Speaker 1: sharp money there. And then Saturday, I don't I could see. 344 00:19:10,080 --> 00:19:12,200 Speaker 1: I think there's gonna be sharp money on both the 345 00:19:12,280 --> 00:19:17,880 Speaker 1: Buffalo and Denver and San fran Seattle. I think there 346 00:19:17,880 --> 00:19:20,639 Speaker 1: was early sharp money in Seattle, like just real early, 347 00:19:20,720 --> 00:19:23,560 Speaker 1: and then I could see some sharp money on like 348 00:19:23,600 --> 00:19:26,280 Speaker 1: San fram whenever it gets above seven, and then I 349 00:19:26,280 --> 00:19:30,679 Speaker 1: think inevitably it's gonna settle it at seven. But I 350 00:19:30,720 --> 00:19:33,120 Speaker 1: don't you might have. I think you have some sharp 351 00:19:33,119 --> 00:19:41,480 Speaker 1: money on the Denver Buffalo under which I like. And yeah, 352 00:19:41,520 --> 00:19:44,440 Speaker 1: other than that, there there obviously was sharp money on 353 00:19:44,480 --> 00:19:48,600 Speaker 1: the Rams bears under because that to move it from 354 00:19:48,720 --> 00:19:50,719 Speaker 1: it was backing off to fifty one and a half 355 00:19:51,400 --> 00:19:53,280 Speaker 1: and it came down to forty eight and a half. 356 00:19:53,320 --> 00:19:56,960 Speaker 1: It's a pretty substantial move, but these things can change 357 00:19:57,000 --> 00:19:59,880 Speaker 1: later in the week is limits could even higher, so we'll, 358 00:20:00,240 --> 00:20:03,400 Speaker 1: but last week it was it was rough for sharp 359 00:20:03,440 --> 00:20:06,840 Speaker 1: betters'll that'll that'll have one weekend a lot of avariants. 360 00:20:13,880 --> 00:20:16,199 Speaker 2: Today's show is brought to you by are presenting sponsor 361 00:20:16,240 --> 00:20:20,679 Speaker 2: hard Rock Bet with Miami making the Natty, you know 362 00:20:20,760 --> 00:20:23,320 Speaker 2: hard Rock Stadium will be rocking, and if you're going 363 00:20:23,320 --> 00:20:25,240 Speaker 2: to the game, hard Rock Bet is giving you ten 364 00:20:25,280 --> 00:20:27,679 Speaker 2: dollars bonus to get in on the action. 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If you are someone you know has a 391 00:21:53,600 --> 00:21:57,680 Speaker 3: gambling problem and wants help, call one eight hundred and 392 00:21:57,800 --> 00:22:03,360 Speaker 3: nine with it gambling problem called Winne Hunter Gambler Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, 393 00:22:03,359 --> 00:22:09,160 Speaker 3: New Jersey, Ohio and A Steve Virginia. 394 00:22:12,280 --> 00:22:15,000 Speaker 2: Well let's just start with the bills, and I think 395 00:22:15,000 --> 00:22:16,840 Speaker 2: it's fair to say when you get a number like 396 00:22:16,920 --> 00:22:19,440 Speaker 2: this that hovers between you know, bills right now in 397 00:22:19,480 --> 00:22:23,280 Speaker 2: Hardrock Bet as if we're recording this on Wednesday, you 398 00:22:23,280 --> 00:22:26,399 Speaker 2: know are minus one on the road against Denver. The 399 00:22:26,720 --> 00:22:29,080 Speaker 2: numbers shifted around a little bit. But like you said 400 00:22:29,640 --> 00:22:32,639 Speaker 2: to me offline that the money line really reflects this 401 00:22:32,720 --> 00:22:35,040 Speaker 2: game as a coin flip game. You know, when you 402 00:22:35,080 --> 00:22:37,080 Speaker 2: look at Denver, even if I give them a pass, 403 00:22:37,680 --> 00:22:40,520 Speaker 2: let's just say for sake of argument, we removed the 404 00:22:40,640 --> 00:22:45,080 Speaker 2: Charger game. They're rolling out Trey Lance, who's probably not 405 00:22:45,880 --> 00:22:48,800 Speaker 2: two deep player in the NFL. The previous week they 406 00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:51,840 Speaker 2: played the Raiders on that whatever was it Christmas or 407 00:22:51,880 --> 00:22:55,840 Speaker 2: Christmas Eve division game, weird thing. Just let's say remove that. 408 00:22:56,200 --> 00:22:59,200 Speaker 2: The previous time when they played Jacksonville, which was a 409 00:22:59,280 --> 00:23:02,520 Speaker 2: massive game at the time, they kind of got worked 410 00:23:03,040 --> 00:23:07,480 Speaker 2: not kind of that they did. And their defense, you know, 411 00:23:07,560 --> 00:23:09,600 Speaker 2: like when you watch the Eagles or you watch Seattle, 412 00:23:09,600 --> 00:23:11,879 Speaker 2: there's a physicality to their defense. I think when you 413 00:23:11,880 --> 00:23:16,920 Speaker 2: watch Denver there's more speed oriented. And I just think 414 00:23:16,960 --> 00:23:20,239 Speaker 2: that like the question on Denver, Obviously, bo Nicks has 415 00:23:20,280 --> 00:23:22,399 Speaker 2: been the big kind of elephant in the room, but 416 00:23:22,520 --> 00:23:24,800 Speaker 2: if their defense isn't as dominant, like they don't look 417 00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:27,960 Speaker 2: like Houston or something. Right, now, did you go how 418 00:23:28,000 --> 00:23:32,119 Speaker 2: good is this team? The quarterback's never proven anything, and 419 00:23:32,119 --> 00:23:35,480 Speaker 2: he's been very iffy most of the season, and clearly 420 00:23:35,560 --> 00:23:37,600 Speaker 2: like he was trying in those last couple of games. 421 00:23:37,720 --> 00:23:40,879 Speaker 2: It didn't look great the Bills. We talked about it 422 00:23:40,920 --> 00:23:42,840 Speaker 2: last week. I just took Josh. It's been on Josh 423 00:23:42,920 --> 00:23:45,440 Speaker 2: and it worked. And I mean the difference in that game. 424 00:23:45,480 --> 00:23:47,560 Speaker 2: I thought Trevor was all over the place. Liam Cohen 425 00:23:47,560 --> 00:23:49,240 Speaker 2: probably should have ran the ball more. They were having 426 00:23:49,280 --> 00:23:51,840 Speaker 2: much success, I mean part of the deal against Buffalo. 427 00:23:51,880 --> 00:23:54,520 Speaker 2: And you saw this last year with your squad Baltimore, 428 00:23:54,720 --> 00:24:00,320 Speaker 2: like lean on physically they're not yea, yeah, what are 429 00:24:00,320 --> 00:24:03,840 Speaker 2: you guys doing? So I think this is a tough spot. 430 00:24:04,040 --> 00:24:06,159 Speaker 2: You know, Denver just they had a lot of question marks. 431 00:24:06,320 --> 00:24:08,439 Speaker 2: Now maybe just we look back in the year, they 432 00:24:08,480 --> 00:24:10,440 Speaker 2: answer them over the next couple of weeks and we 433 00:24:10,480 --> 00:24:13,720 Speaker 2: don't think about them like that. But I'm taking the Bills. 434 00:24:13,880 --> 00:24:15,800 Speaker 2: I'm just gonna hammer the money line in this game. 435 00:24:16,240 --> 00:24:17,760 Speaker 2: And just like I said last week, if they beat 436 00:24:17,760 --> 00:24:20,000 Speaker 2: this Jacks team, I'm just gonna hammer them till they lose. 437 00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:22,439 Speaker 2: And that's my mindset here. The other thing is, I 438 00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:24,440 Speaker 2: was at the dog park the other day and we 439 00:24:24,480 --> 00:24:26,199 Speaker 2: start talking to this lady and she comes up. She's like, Oh, 440 00:24:26,320 --> 00:24:28,280 Speaker 2: is your wife the one that's pregnant. I'm like yeah, 441 00:24:28,359 --> 00:24:31,000 Speaker 2: and we's like the guy was wearing a Broncos sweatshirt. 442 00:24:31,040 --> 00:24:33,240 Speaker 2: I'm like, oh, you're from Colorado. He's like, yeah, We've 443 00:24:33,320 --> 00:24:35,840 Speaker 2: lived there for forty years, right, we bought a house 444 00:24:35,880 --> 00:24:38,200 Speaker 2: here forever. We came over here during the winter, big 445 00:24:38,240 --> 00:24:41,600 Speaker 2: Bronco fans. I'm like, oh, it's probably cold, snowy week. 446 00:24:41,640 --> 00:24:43,679 Speaker 2: He's like, actually, I just text my son. It's sixty 447 00:24:43,720 --> 00:24:46,760 Speaker 2: degrees and I look today, the sun's gonna be out 448 00:24:46,920 --> 00:24:49,720 Speaker 2: and it's like in the fifties. So this is not 449 00:24:50,040 --> 00:24:55,000 Speaker 2: some frigid, cold Denver Bronco Mile High game. It's not 450 00:24:55,080 --> 00:24:58,400 Speaker 2: quite Jacksonville where people are in the pool, but at least, 451 00:24:58,440 --> 00:25:02,800 Speaker 2: based on what I saw, could be potentially a nice afternoon, 452 00:25:03,880 --> 00:25:07,680 Speaker 2: you know, day game. So that to me benefits Josh Allen, 453 00:25:07,720 --> 00:25:09,879 Speaker 2: does it not? So I'm taking the bills in this game. 454 00:25:11,080 --> 00:25:15,159 Speaker 1: Yeah, I so I agree with that. The Broncos defense 455 00:25:16,359 --> 00:25:25,960 Speaker 1: is it's not as elite as Seattle and Houston. It's 456 00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:27,720 Speaker 1: very good, and they might get drag Green. 457 00:25:27,560 --> 00:25:31,920 Speaker 2: Law back, which their physicality, yeah, which they need. 458 00:25:31,920 --> 00:25:34,080 Speaker 1: I mean last year, So these teams met last year 459 00:25:34,119 --> 00:25:38,399 Speaker 1: in the playoffs and the Bills won thirty one seven 460 00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:42,840 Speaker 1: in the first round. The Broncos linebacker and corps. Linebacker 461 00:25:42,840 --> 00:25:46,440 Speaker 1: corps was decimated by injury that in game injuries, and 462 00:25:47,000 --> 00:25:49,000 Speaker 1: it wasn't as good as what it would be if 463 00:25:49,119 --> 00:25:52,880 Speaker 1: especially if Green laws back. And you know, they added Hufunga, 464 00:25:53,160 --> 00:25:56,440 Speaker 1: who provides some more physicality as well in the run game. 465 00:25:57,280 --> 00:25:59,600 Speaker 1: Now you're gonna have Locke, who is vulnerable at safety 466 00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:05,040 Speaker 1: because their start, their starting safety is out with an injury, 467 00:26:05,160 --> 00:26:09,280 Speaker 1: Brandon Jones. But yeah, this so and what happened in 468 00:26:09,320 --> 00:26:10,960 Speaker 1: that game is the Bills just ran all over them 469 00:26:11,240 --> 00:26:14,880 Speaker 1: and they just leaned on Denver. I don't think they'll 470 00:26:14,920 --> 00:26:17,760 Speaker 1: be able to do that as success successfully here. But 471 00:26:17,800 --> 00:26:19,640 Speaker 1: I do think that they'll have success running. 472 00:26:19,440 --> 00:26:22,640 Speaker 2: The ball because they didn't really against Jacksonville, right, Cook 473 00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:24,320 Speaker 2: was kind of a non factor in that game. 474 00:26:24,400 --> 00:26:27,160 Speaker 1: So, yeah, Jason Rundy has been e lead all year. 475 00:26:28,160 --> 00:26:29,960 Speaker 1: They had a top five Rundy. Now, on paper, the 476 00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:31,919 Speaker 1: Broncos have a top five run dye. But when they 477 00:26:31,960 --> 00:26:34,240 Speaker 1: stepped up and faced some teams that can run the ball, 478 00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:36,359 Speaker 1: like some of the top tier running teams, they didn't 479 00:26:36,359 --> 00:26:39,480 Speaker 1: face a lot they they weren't as dominant, so I 480 00:26:39,480 --> 00:26:41,520 Speaker 1: could see I think the Bills have to lean on 481 00:26:42,200 --> 00:26:44,760 Speaker 1: the ground game here. I'm so curious to see what 482 00:26:44,800 --> 00:26:48,920 Speaker 1: they do from because here, so for starters, I did 483 00:26:48,920 --> 00:26:53,239 Speaker 1: play the under. I don't blame you for taking I mean, 484 00:26:53,240 --> 00:26:55,159 Speaker 1: if you just need to win a game historically, like 485 00:26:55,320 --> 00:26:58,919 Speaker 1: on the money line as a dog or as a 486 00:26:58,960 --> 00:27:02,879 Speaker 1: favorite under a fueld goal, Josh Allen is, you know, 487 00:27:02,920 --> 00:27:05,080 Speaker 1: the just to win the game. Is the most profitable 488 00:27:05,320 --> 00:27:09,439 Speaker 1: quarterback in NFL history, and he just might be the 489 00:27:09,480 --> 00:27:13,720 Speaker 1: Mahomes of this year, right, like who cares I have 490 00:27:13,840 --> 00:27:16,200 Speaker 1: Josh Allen? Like? Right, but last year was you know, 491 00:27:16,320 --> 00:27:19,080 Speaker 1: nearest prior was just who cares live Patrick Mahomes. It's 492 00:27:19,119 --> 00:27:20,840 Speaker 1: like it didn't matter. You just bet the bet the 493 00:27:20,920 --> 00:27:23,000 Speaker 1: Chiefs to win the game. And that's basically what happened 494 00:27:23,080 --> 00:27:28,360 Speaker 1: last week, right, Like the Jags were they had the game, 495 00:27:28,440 --> 00:27:32,159 Speaker 1: but Josh Allen just despite all the injuries, he just 496 00:27:32,240 --> 00:27:34,439 Speaker 1: made plays when he had to at the end. And 497 00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:35,520 Speaker 1: that could happen here. 498 00:27:36,040 --> 00:27:37,680 Speaker 2: Now do you agree to if they if they win 499 00:27:37,760 --> 00:27:40,960 Speaker 2: this game? So they've I mean the Jags obviously the 500 00:27:40,960 --> 00:27:43,760 Speaker 2: hottest team coming in the playoffs potentially in the league. 501 00:27:44,160 --> 00:27:46,120 Speaker 2: Then you go on the road to the number one seed, 502 00:27:46,200 --> 00:27:49,680 Speaker 2: beat him, and more likely, I guess Houston will get 503 00:27:49,680 --> 00:27:51,600 Speaker 2: into that game. Who beat the shit out of the 504 00:27:51,640 --> 00:27:54,000 Speaker 2: Bills early this season. Might be a tough matchup for him. 505 00:27:54,400 --> 00:27:56,359 Speaker 2: So actually it's it might not be as easy to 506 00:27:56,480 --> 00:27:58,639 Speaker 2: just be like they're just gonna win the super Bowl. 507 00:27:58,760 --> 00:28:00,920 Speaker 2: The Houston thing, well, I guess we'll get to that 508 00:28:00,960 --> 00:28:03,320 Speaker 2: in a minute. No, never mind, that's Houston's a tough 509 00:28:03,320 --> 00:28:04,320 Speaker 2: matchup for the Bills. 510 00:28:04,760 --> 00:28:06,879 Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean going to going to New England wouldn't 511 00:28:06,920 --> 00:28:08,720 Speaker 1: wouldn't be easy. I mean both of those games were 512 00:28:08,760 --> 00:28:11,600 Speaker 1: very close during the year as far like Allen will 513 00:28:11,600 --> 00:28:13,240 Speaker 1: have to earn it because I know, I know that 514 00:28:13,280 --> 00:28:15,760 Speaker 1: there's no Mahomes, no Lamar, no Burrow in it. But 515 00:28:16,359 --> 00:28:18,240 Speaker 1: going on the road to Jacksonville, it's a shame for 516 00:28:18,320 --> 00:28:20,120 Speaker 1: jack that those teams had to play each other, because 517 00:28:20,119 --> 00:28:22,040 Speaker 1: both those teams could went to Super Bowl, and the 518 00:28:22,080 --> 00:28:24,359 Speaker 1: Jags got screwed. They win the division, they have to 519 00:28:24,359 --> 00:28:27,840 Speaker 1: play Buffalo Texans finished in second, get to play the Steelers, 520 00:28:29,480 --> 00:28:31,480 Speaker 1: but the Texans pass. 521 00:28:31,560 --> 00:28:33,560 Speaker 2: Jags would have rather played the Steelers. They probably would 522 00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:34,639 Speaker 2: have won by the same margin. 523 00:28:34,960 --> 00:28:40,640 Speaker 1: Absolutely, the Jags you know, when the the Bills played 524 00:28:40,680 --> 00:28:45,080 Speaker 1: the Falcons and lost the Texans, those pass rushers, they 525 00:28:45,960 --> 00:28:48,520 Speaker 1: they were able to get to Allen and give them 526 00:28:48,520 --> 00:28:52,520 Speaker 1: some issues. So maybe this Broncos pass rush can do 527 00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:54,840 Speaker 1: the same. Because it isn't a great matchup for the 528 00:28:54,880 --> 00:29:01,040 Speaker 1: Bills offense, They're not. Allen's numbers this year are significantly 529 00:29:01,080 --> 00:29:03,400 Speaker 1: worse against man coverage. Now last week he got to 530 00:29:03,440 --> 00:29:06,800 Speaker 1: face a zone heavy defense, and the reason for that 531 00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:09,360 Speaker 1: is it's not Josh Allen. It's that he doesn't have 532 00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:13,400 Speaker 1: receivers that can get any separation. So it's hard for 533 00:29:13,440 --> 00:29:16,680 Speaker 1: me to see their receivers getting and their receiving core 534 00:29:16,760 --> 00:29:19,680 Speaker 1: is decimated now. Like Curtis Samuel just got designated to 535 00:29:19,680 --> 00:29:22,840 Speaker 1: come back off IR, they're probably gonna need him. They 536 00:29:22,920 --> 00:29:25,720 Speaker 1: only had three as yesterday, only had three healthy receivers 537 00:29:25,760 --> 00:29:27,560 Speaker 1: on the roster. One of them is a guy who've 538 00:29:27,560 --> 00:29:30,480 Speaker 1: been healthy scratching. You know, Shakier has been good, but 539 00:29:30,560 --> 00:29:33,480 Speaker 1: McMillan's pretty good in the slot. And then you have 540 00:29:33,640 --> 00:29:35,800 Speaker 1: Certain I'm curious see what they do with him. I mean, 541 00:29:35,800 --> 00:29:39,640 Speaker 1: you use him on, like Kincaid said, sometimes because there's 542 00:29:39,680 --> 00:29:42,600 Speaker 1: just they're gonna be able to man up, load the box, 543 00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:45,960 Speaker 1: bring the blitz, and it's gonna be hard for Alan 544 00:29:46,080 --> 00:29:49,880 Speaker 1: to have enough time because his receivers just aren't gonna 545 00:29:49,880 --> 00:29:53,560 Speaker 1: get any separation because the Broncos are going to play 546 00:29:53,600 --> 00:29:56,280 Speaker 1: a ton of man. They blitz and it's just gonna 547 00:29:56,280 --> 00:29:57,480 Speaker 1: be tough. So the Bills are gonna lean on the 548 00:29:57,480 --> 00:30:00,200 Speaker 1: ground game here. It's gonna keep the clock moving. I'm 549 00:30:00,200 --> 00:30:02,240 Speaker 1: curious to see if they like completely switch it up, 550 00:30:02,280 --> 00:30:05,920 Speaker 1: if they go three, if they go like two three 551 00:30:06,000 --> 00:30:09,920 Speaker 1: tight end sets and and try to attack the linebackers 552 00:30:09,960 --> 00:30:14,520 Speaker 1: and the safeties of Denver. So I'm super curious to 553 00:30:14,520 --> 00:30:17,280 Speaker 1: see how they what they do schematically. If you got 554 00:30:17,360 --> 00:30:19,600 Speaker 1: to remember Josh Allen's also dealing with some injuries. On 555 00:30:19,640 --> 00:30:22,040 Speaker 1: a short week, we'll see how banged up he is. 556 00:30:22,080 --> 00:30:25,200 Speaker 1: He's gonna take hits against Denver. But the clock's gonna 557 00:30:25,200 --> 00:30:26,760 Speaker 1: be moving. I think they're gonna lean on the ground game, 558 00:30:26,880 --> 00:30:29,600 Speaker 1: especially early on, and then on the other side of 559 00:30:29,600 --> 00:30:32,000 Speaker 1: the ball, they could get at Oliver back as well. 560 00:30:32,040 --> 00:30:35,000 Speaker 1: He was just designated off. That would be big for 561 00:30:35,040 --> 00:30:38,920 Speaker 1: their defensive line. But McDermott usually does a good job 562 00:30:38,920 --> 00:30:42,480 Speaker 1: in game planning, scheming, disguising looks in these big, high 563 00:30:42,520 --> 00:30:45,120 Speaker 1: leverage games, they're gonna play a ton of too high. 564 00:30:45,440 --> 00:30:48,640 Speaker 1: They take away the explosive play. That's kind of what 565 00:30:48,760 --> 00:30:51,280 Speaker 1: bo Nicks does. It's but bo Nix will you know, 566 00:30:51,280 --> 00:30:54,120 Speaker 1: he's very inconsistent on a down the down basis. But 567 00:30:54,200 --> 00:30:56,120 Speaker 1: then we'll he'll hit the splash play every once in 568 00:30:56,160 --> 00:30:58,360 Speaker 1: a while. The Bills don't give that up. Play a 569 00:30:58,400 --> 00:31:01,520 Speaker 1: ton of too high against too high, Knicks doesn't really 570 00:31:01,520 --> 00:31:04,120 Speaker 1: take chances. He's the lowest yards per attempt in the league. 571 00:31:04,520 --> 00:31:07,920 Speaker 1: He's gonna take those short passes. I also think Peyton 572 00:31:08,040 --> 00:31:10,760 Speaker 1: is gonna rely on his defense, which means he's gonna 573 00:31:10,880 --> 00:31:12,960 Speaker 1: heavy dose of run here. He knows that's where the 574 00:31:13,040 --> 00:31:15,920 Speaker 1: Bills are the weakest. He's usually smart about that. So 575 00:31:15,960 --> 00:31:17,640 Speaker 1: I think both teams are gonna be running a ton, 576 00:31:18,360 --> 00:31:21,240 Speaker 1: relying on field position. Clock will be running. 577 00:31:21,520 --> 00:31:23,200 Speaker 2: This is a great game. This is a great game. 578 00:31:23,480 --> 00:31:26,720 Speaker 1: Yeah, it'll be good. So I bet the under the Bill. 579 00:31:26,800 --> 00:31:30,960 Speaker 1: I think the Bill's only goal is Knicks is gonna 580 00:31:31,040 --> 00:31:34,000 Speaker 1: use his legs here. The Bills struggle with can struggle 581 00:31:34,040 --> 00:31:38,080 Speaker 1: with mobile quarterbacks. I think the Bill's only goal is, 582 00:31:38,800 --> 00:31:41,680 Speaker 1: you know, try to run the ball. Keep the game 583 00:31:41,800 --> 00:31:46,160 Speaker 1: close until the fourth quarter, and then you have Josh Allen. 584 00:31:46,840 --> 00:31:50,360 Speaker 1: They have bow knicks, and uh, you just want to 585 00:31:50,400 --> 00:31:52,680 Speaker 1: be in a position where Josh Allen needs to go 586 00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:55,920 Speaker 1: win the game, and more times than not, he's gonna 587 00:31:55,960 --> 00:31:58,920 Speaker 1: go do that. But I think this will be lower 588 00:31:58,960 --> 00:32:16,480 Speaker 1: scoring field position battle, especially early on. 589 00:32:16,480 --> 00:32:19,200 Speaker 2: One thing I was told and forty nine er players 590 00:32:19,240 --> 00:32:20,520 Speaker 2: have been saying, I mean it goes back to the 591 00:32:20,600 --> 00:32:24,200 Speaker 2: Atlanta Falcons. That what one of Kyle's strengths is during 592 00:32:24,200 --> 00:32:26,400 Speaker 2: the week when he does these game plans, he's so 593 00:32:26,560 --> 00:32:29,560 Speaker 2: good at dissecting the defense. When he tells, you get 594 00:32:29,600 --> 00:32:32,160 Speaker 2: to this spot, it'll be wide open. Run this play 595 00:32:32,200 --> 00:32:34,880 Speaker 2: at this time, it'll work. And he's kind of a 596 00:32:34,880 --> 00:32:37,440 Speaker 2: genius like that because he's really he has a great 597 00:32:37,520 --> 00:32:39,640 Speaker 2: mind on the defensive side of the ball. So when 598 00:32:39,640 --> 00:32:42,400 Speaker 2: you do something like Fangio. One thing I think they 599 00:32:42,400 --> 00:32:44,200 Speaker 2: felt after the game is like we kind of knew 600 00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:45,720 Speaker 2: where they were going to line up. Obviously they have 601 00:32:45,720 --> 00:32:49,040 Speaker 2: good players, but we weren't getting tricked by stuff. And 602 00:32:49,080 --> 00:32:51,320 Speaker 2: the thing that happened in that Seattle game a couple 603 00:32:51,320 --> 00:32:54,560 Speaker 2: of weeks ago, you know, from just some some sources, 604 00:32:54,760 --> 00:32:56,680 Speaker 2: is and I think this is what makes Mike so 605 00:32:56,760 --> 00:32:59,040 Speaker 2: specially he's been doing it. You know, his whole career 606 00:32:59,720 --> 00:33:01,640 Speaker 2: is they dot they would get something, and guys would 607 00:33:01,640 --> 00:33:04,160 Speaker 2: be in completely different spots once the ball was snapped, 608 00:33:04,240 --> 00:33:08,520 Speaker 2: and his deciphering and disguising shit was all over the place. 609 00:33:08,680 --> 00:33:10,959 Speaker 2: But I'm not even talking about the D line whooping 610 00:33:11,000 --> 00:33:13,520 Speaker 2: the old line. I'm just talking about in coverage. Guys 611 00:33:13,560 --> 00:33:15,440 Speaker 2: are all over the map when the forty nine ers 612 00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:18,280 Speaker 2: have game planned against something else. So I mean, Perty's 613 00:33:18,320 --> 00:33:20,440 Speaker 2: going back there thinking X and he's getting why, and 614 00:33:20,480 --> 00:33:23,000 Speaker 2: it really threw them off ward. Against Fangio, they went 615 00:33:23,040 --> 00:33:24,560 Speaker 2: back to seeing X and they were getting X. He 616 00:33:24,800 --> 00:33:27,400 Speaker 2: they just had to execute it. So, you know, I 617 00:33:27,440 --> 00:33:30,920 Speaker 2: think they can prepare. You know, obviously they got screwed 618 00:33:30,960 --> 00:33:34,959 Speaker 2: a little bit by the timing. Right, ideally you'd play Sunday. 619 00:33:35,000 --> 00:33:37,280 Speaker 2: They've kind of got a couple of short weeks, but 620 00:33:37,440 --> 00:33:39,920 Speaker 2: like they don't really have like the prep's already done, right, 621 00:33:39,960 --> 00:33:42,080 Speaker 2: they just played him Sunday. The Seattle didn't play an 622 00:33:42,120 --> 00:33:44,560 Speaker 2: extra game, So really they can double down and like 623 00:33:44,960 --> 00:33:47,960 Speaker 2: what could we have done a little different and like 624 00:33:48,120 --> 00:33:50,400 Speaker 2: build off what we thought coming into that game and 625 00:33:50,400 --> 00:33:52,640 Speaker 2: make adjustment. It's kind of a unique spot for the 626 00:33:52,680 --> 00:33:55,280 Speaker 2: forty nine ers from a game plan perspective in a 627 00:33:55,280 --> 00:33:58,640 Speaker 2: shitty week, because they just probably had an incredible game 628 00:33:58,640 --> 00:34:01,520 Speaker 2: plan playing for the number one seed that didn't work, 629 00:34:01,560 --> 00:34:04,480 Speaker 2: and then they can kind of pivot off that where Seattle. 630 00:34:04,960 --> 00:34:07,240 Speaker 2: You know, it's like you just you know you're gonna 631 00:34:07,240 --> 00:34:10,040 Speaker 2: get some different swings now from them that you just saw. 632 00:34:10,480 --> 00:34:13,080 Speaker 2: So I I think the forty nine ers to have 633 00:34:13,120 --> 00:34:15,319 Speaker 2: a chance in this game. And to me, the key 634 00:34:15,440 --> 00:34:18,640 Speaker 2: is someone asked me, it's like, well, the two guys 635 00:34:18,719 --> 00:34:20,759 Speaker 2: ran for one hundred and seventy yards and there was 636 00:34:20,800 --> 00:34:22,920 Speaker 2: a point in that Eagle game when it was thirteen 637 00:34:22,920 --> 00:34:24,759 Speaker 2: to seven Eagles, they had the ball and the time 638 00:34:24,840 --> 00:34:26,480 Speaker 2: possession was like eighteen to six. I was like, the 639 00:34:26,560 --> 00:34:27,480 Speaker 2: Niners are in trouble. 640 00:34:27,640 --> 00:34:31,440 Speaker 1: Yeah, the Eagles just went on a nine minute touchdown. 641 00:34:31,440 --> 00:34:34,120 Speaker 2: If that takes place in Seattle, they will lose the 642 00:34:34,160 --> 00:34:36,799 Speaker 2: time possession thing again. So you just have to get 643 00:34:37,080 --> 00:34:39,600 Speaker 2: for some more punts and not just give them drives 644 00:34:39,640 --> 00:34:42,359 Speaker 2: even if they're not scoring points that just last seven 645 00:34:42,400 --> 00:34:44,960 Speaker 2: eight minutes, because then that puts so much pressure. If 646 00:34:45,000 --> 00:34:47,400 Speaker 2: you go three and out, it feels like a disastrous quarter. 647 00:34:48,160 --> 00:34:50,800 Speaker 2: So I do think Kyle, this is a game again. 648 00:34:51,200 --> 00:34:52,840 Speaker 2: It's like can you run a fake field goal or 649 00:34:52,880 --> 00:34:54,919 Speaker 2: fake punt? Like you're gonna have to do one of those. 650 00:34:54,960 --> 00:34:57,719 Speaker 2: You probably can't run the wide receiver pass again. But 651 00:34:58,200 --> 00:35:00,200 Speaker 2: I do think the forty nine ers are pretty live 652 00:35:00,280 --> 00:35:02,560 Speaker 2: dog in this spot. And let's face it, you know, 653 00:35:02,600 --> 00:35:04,719 Speaker 2: there is a ton of pressure on Sam in this 654 00:35:04,800 --> 00:35:08,600 Speaker 2: game to just like he played really well last week 655 00:35:08,760 --> 00:35:10,600 Speaker 2: or whenever they won thirteen to three. I know they 656 00:35:10,640 --> 00:35:12,680 Speaker 2: didn't score many points, but he was twenty twenty six. 657 00:35:12,760 --> 00:35:15,239 Speaker 2: He was efficient. He was just completely under control. If 658 00:35:15,280 --> 00:35:17,319 Speaker 2: he plays again like that and their defense plays, they'll win. 659 00:35:17,840 --> 00:35:19,680 Speaker 2: But like we've seen Sam in a couple of these 660 00:35:19,719 --> 00:35:21,520 Speaker 2: high leverage spots and it didn't go as well. Now, 661 00:35:21,560 --> 00:35:23,440 Speaker 2: did the forty nine ers have the defense to really, 662 00:35:24,160 --> 00:35:27,000 Speaker 2: you know, kind of put him on tilt? I don't know, 663 00:35:27,040 --> 00:35:29,359 Speaker 2: But to me, it starts with can you just neutralize 664 00:35:29,360 --> 00:35:31,319 Speaker 2: the run game? Because if you remove the first run 665 00:35:31,360 --> 00:35:32,920 Speaker 2: of the game or Saquon win, I think for like 666 00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:35,640 Speaker 2: thirty yards, he really had twenty five carries for like 667 00:35:35,800 --> 00:35:38,480 Speaker 2: seventy yards, Like you live with that all day. It 668 00:35:39,080 --> 00:35:41,560 Speaker 2: was just the over and over in that Saturday night 669 00:35:41,600 --> 00:35:44,880 Speaker 2: game of just the five seven five, It's like it 670 00:35:45,040 --> 00:35:48,640 Speaker 2: just kills you. So to me stop the run, It's like, Okay, 671 00:35:48,680 --> 00:35:53,000 Speaker 2: Sam throw for two hundred and fifty three hundred yards. 672 00:35:53,120 --> 00:35:56,120 Speaker 1: I can't wait for this game now. My favorite part 673 00:35:56,120 --> 00:35:59,040 Speaker 1: about the playoffs is from a football fan perspective, is 674 00:35:59,080 --> 00:36:02,600 Speaker 1: the coaching matchup. And to look at the NFC, I mean, 675 00:36:02,640 --> 00:36:06,080 Speaker 1: you have Ben Johnson versu mcaday, and you have Kyle 676 00:36:06,200 --> 00:36:07,240 Speaker 1: versus MacDonald. 677 00:36:08,520 --> 00:36:10,959 Speaker 2: And if we had a coaching draft, I mean, would 678 00:36:10,960 --> 00:36:13,080 Speaker 2: you say these four guys would go in the top six? 679 00:36:14,000 --> 00:36:15,560 Speaker 1: Yes, yeah, for sure? 680 00:36:15,880 --> 00:36:18,000 Speaker 2: After if you just if you just say, hey, age 681 00:36:18,000 --> 00:36:21,319 Speaker 2: doesn't matter. Let's say Andy goes one, would these get 682 00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:23,600 Speaker 2: Would these be the next four picks in some order? 683 00:36:24,080 --> 00:36:24,319 Speaker 1: Yeah? 684 00:36:25,000 --> 00:36:26,759 Speaker 2: I get Mike's a defensive guy, but I think he 685 00:36:26,920 --> 00:36:28,000 Speaker 2: still ain't falling far. 686 00:36:29,680 --> 00:36:33,920 Speaker 1: Yeah, let me look at the If Kevin. 687 00:36:33,680 --> 00:36:38,160 Speaker 2: O'Connell would go high, Rabel would go in the top ten, 688 00:36:40,719 --> 00:36:43,440 Speaker 2: Demiko would be a sleeper defensive guy that would go high, 689 00:36:43,560 --> 00:36:49,160 Speaker 2: high level guy, all. 690 00:36:49,040 --> 00:36:53,880 Speaker 1: Four of them for anyone else, I think at the moment, 691 00:36:55,080 --> 00:37:01,319 Speaker 1: although I do think now he's still new to the job, 692 00:37:02,560 --> 00:37:04,720 Speaker 1: but I do think very, very highly of Liam Cohen. 693 00:37:06,960 --> 00:37:10,120 Speaker 1: So he but I mean it's only one years. 694 00:37:10,239 --> 00:37:12,680 Speaker 2: He'd go hid Sirianni go top twenty, you think, or. 695 00:37:13,920 --> 00:37:17,279 Speaker 1: I don't know. I mean, like what does what does 696 00:37:17,960 --> 00:37:21,520 Speaker 1: ser Like I struggle with how valuable is Sirianni? Like 697 00:37:21,560 --> 00:37:25,000 Speaker 1: what does he do? Right? Like he won a Super 698 00:37:25,040 --> 00:37:26,440 Speaker 1: Bowl and you have to give him credit for that, 699 00:37:26,520 --> 00:37:30,880 Speaker 1: but like he had, right, two really good coordinators. He 700 00:37:30,960 --> 00:37:33,520 Speaker 1: has one of the most talented rosters. Is the organization 701 00:37:33,880 --> 00:37:38,000 Speaker 1: is run very well. You have a great GM, so 702 00:37:38,160 --> 00:37:41,840 Speaker 1: much talent on that roster. What does he really do? 703 00:37:41,880 --> 00:37:43,960 Speaker 1: He's supposed to be an offensive guy, so you don't 704 00:37:44,000 --> 00:37:48,360 Speaker 1: have the coordinator this year and the offense falls apart. 705 00:37:48,640 --> 00:37:52,759 Speaker 1: Like if you remove him from that team last year, 706 00:37:52,800 --> 00:37:56,200 Speaker 1: did they still win the Super Bowl? Maybe? I do 707 00:37:56,239 --> 00:37:58,400 Speaker 1: think he's pretty sharp with like some in game stuff 708 00:38:00,400 --> 00:38:04,719 Speaker 1: and understanding like game and time and clock management. But 709 00:38:06,000 --> 00:38:10,480 Speaker 1: I wouldn't have him near the top. So but yeah, 710 00:38:10,640 --> 00:38:14,479 Speaker 1: these coaching matchups are awesome. So I kind of wanted 711 00:38:14,520 --> 00:38:17,759 Speaker 1: to when these two teams met in week eighteen. When 712 00:38:17,760 --> 00:38:18,800 Speaker 1: I was saw him on this game, I told you, 713 00:38:18,880 --> 00:38:21,240 Speaker 1: I like the under it was that opened at like fifty. 714 00:38:21,640 --> 00:38:23,480 Speaker 1: I was like, that's way too high for these teams, 715 00:38:23,800 --> 00:38:25,440 Speaker 1: and it came down to like forty seven and a 716 00:38:25,440 --> 00:38:28,040 Speaker 1: half I think, But now this total is that like 717 00:38:28,080 --> 00:38:30,360 Speaker 1: forty four and a half. I'm thinking I kind of 718 00:38:30,400 --> 00:38:32,160 Speaker 1: want to bet the over. I think it's come down 719 00:38:32,760 --> 00:38:36,160 Speaker 1: a bit too much. But this will all come down 720 00:38:37,120 --> 00:38:43,239 Speaker 1: to the battle between Shanahan and McDonald. And what I 721 00:38:43,239 --> 00:38:47,520 Speaker 1: mean by that is that if McDonald dominates. Because McDonald 722 00:38:47,520 --> 00:38:49,640 Speaker 1: came out he said, well, he has some other looks 723 00:38:49,719 --> 00:38:51,640 Speaker 1: that he has in his back pocket that he didn't 724 00:38:51,640 --> 00:38:53,479 Speaker 1: show in the Week eighteen game. So there you're gonna 725 00:38:53,480 --> 00:38:56,200 Speaker 1: get some other looks here. So can Shanahan anticip based 726 00:38:56,239 --> 00:38:58,280 Speaker 1: on what they saw in week eighteen that they weren't expecting, 727 00:38:59,200 --> 00:39:03,440 Speaker 1: what newde is McDonald have? What does Shanahan have to 728 00:39:03,520 --> 00:39:06,680 Speaker 1: kind of counteract that? And can the forty nine ers 729 00:39:07,000 --> 00:39:09,480 Speaker 1: hit some explosive plays and move the ball through the air. Right, 730 00:39:09,520 --> 00:39:11,879 Speaker 1: you're gonna have Trent Williams this time around, but you're 731 00:39:11,880 --> 00:39:14,879 Speaker 1: not gonna have Kittle. You could have Ricky Pearsall, which 732 00:39:14,880 --> 00:39:16,879 Speaker 1: would be massive. Do you think he's gonna play. 733 00:39:18,440 --> 00:39:19,520 Speaker 2: I would not be confident. 734 00:39:19,840 --> 00:39:23,359 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's what I figured, But he was these two deer. 735 00:39:23,400 --> 00:39:27,520 Speaker 1: Remember these two teams played in Week one and both 736 00:39:27,760 --> 00:39:30,120 Speaker 1: the times they played, the scores are super low scoring, 737 00:39:30,400 --> 00:39:33,640 Speaker 1: but there's been a bunch of scoring opportunities and where 738 00:39:33,680 --> 00:39:34,960 Speaker 1: no one scored. 739 00:39:34,640 --> 00:39:37,040 Speaker 2: Like Kittle missed the majority of that game. 740 00:39:37,120 --> 00:39:40,120 Speaker 1: Right, Yeah, Kittle got hurt in that series and Party 741 00:39:40,120 --> 00:39:42,200 Speaker 1: threw for what three sixty I think. 742 00:39:42,600 --> 00:39:46,600 Speaker 2: And good, what's the what's the weather this week? There? 743 00:39:47,000 --> 00:39:50,879 Speaker 1: I think it's gonna be fine. Okay, so piersall had 744 00:39:51,000 --> 00:39:52,920 Speaker 1: but Pearsall had a big Dad. I think you had 745 00:39:52,920 --> 00:39:57,000 Speaker 1: four catches for one to ten in that game. But 746 00:39:57,120 --> 00:39:59,840 Speaker 1: if the forty nine ers, so, what you can cross 747 00:39:59,840 --> 00:40:06,000 Speaker 1: all here is the forty nine ers will not be 748 00:40:06,080 --> 00:40:10,200 Speaker 1: able to run the ball. That's just gonna be a fact. 749 00:40:11,600 --> 00:40:15,560 Speaker 1: Number one. Seattle's run defense is historically good. They're the 750 00:40:15,560 --> 00:40:17,800 Speaker 1: best run defense in the NFL by a wide margin. 751 00:40:18,120 --> 00:40:19,879 Speaker 1: You can't run on them. No one can run on them. 752 00:40:21,280 --> 00:40:24,160 Speaker 1: It's almost impossible. Now you're gonna have to still do 753 00:40:24,239 --> 00:40:26,799 Speaker 1: it some. But they're not gonna success running ball, especially naw, 754 00:40:26,800 --> 00:40:30,080 Speaker 1: they don't Kittle, who's one of your keys to your 755 00:40:30,160 --> 00:40:34,120 Speaker 1: run game. But you'll have Williams this time around. Party 756 00:40:34,160 --> 00:40:37,560 Speaker 1: should have a bit more time, can he avoid the mistakes, right, 757 00:40:37,600 --> 00:40:40,320 Speaker 1: I think he has seven. I think he's made a 758 00:40:40,400 --> 00:40:43,040 Speaker 1: ton of mistakes whenever he's faced McDonald defense. Go back 759 00:40:43,040 --> 00:40:47,880 Speaker 1: to that Ravens Niners game that costs them then four picks. Yeah, 760 00:40:48,040 --> 00:40:51,960 Speaker 1: So can he avoid the mistakes? Like we get teeny 761 00:40:52,000 --> 00:40:53,640 Speaker 1: throw a pick, but that was tipped and then bounced 762 00:40:53,640 --> 00:40:56,879 Speaker 1: off McCaffrey's arms. But can he move the ball through 763 00:40:56,880 --> 00:40:59,799 Speaker 1: the air against this complex changing that's gonna come down 764 00:40:59,800 --> 00:41:03,640 Speaker 1: to Shanahan has dialed up where he has identified the 765 00:41:03,719 --> 00:41:07,320 Speaker 1: potential weaknesses are in that coverage, Like there was definitely 766 00:41:07,320 --> 00:41:10,880 Speaker 1: some certain areas of the field that he identified against 767 00:41:10,920 --> 00:41:13,440 Speaker 1: that Fangio defense that they took advantage of on the 768 00:41:13,520 --> 00:41:16,279 Speaker 1: left side, and it was a beautiful game plan. And 769 00:41:16,320 --> 00:41:18,120 Speaker 1: I agree with you, they're gonna have to get aggressive 770 00:41:18,160 --> 00:41:22,759 Speaker 1: and then try some trick plays. And so if they're 771 00:41:22,800 --> 00:41:27,600 Speaker 1: able to do that and you know, score and put 772 00:41:27,680 --> 00:41:31,920 Speaker 1: touchdowns on the board, then that puts pressure on Sam 773 00:41:32,000 --> 00:41:34,920 Speaker 1: Darnold to have to throw the ball and then he 774 00:41:34,960 --> 00:41:37,920 Speaker 1: could make mistakes. The problem is the fort As don't 775 00:41:37,920 --> 00:41:40,080 Speaker 1: get a ton of pressure. So I'm also curious to 776 00:41:40,080 --> 00:41:44,520 Speaker 1: see how to Sola play this. The Seahawks should should 777 00:41:44,520 --> 00:41:46,279 Speaker 1: have their left tackle back. They could get a Royal 778 00:41:46,400 --> 00:41:49,200 Speaker 1: back at tight end who kind of helps stretch defense 779 00:41:49,239 --> 00:41:51,040 Speaker 1: as a bunch. But the Seattle offense hasn't been great 780 00:41:51,040 --> 00:41:52,960 Speaker 1: for you know, a month and a half. Their offense 781 00:41:53,000 --> 00:41:56,880 Speaker 1: has been solved a bit. But this does Sala say, 782 00:41:57,680 --> 00:42:00,840 Speaker 1: I'm just gonna play. They played too high on sixty 783 00:42:00,880 --> 00:42:03,200 Speaker 1: seven percent of their snapskn Siquals played a ton of 784 00:42:03,280 --> 00:42:04,719 Speaker 1: quarters coverage. They we're just trying to take away the 785 00:42:04,719 --> 00:42:06,440 Speaker 1: explosive plays. They know their defense doesn't have a ton 786 00:42:06,480 --> 00:42:09,359 Speaker 1: of talent, so it's like prevent the explosive plays. Well, 787 00:42:09,680 --> 00:42:12,279 Speaker 1: we're just gonna stop you in the red zone, hope 788 00:42:12,320 --> 00:42:14,120 Speaker 1: you make a mistake and then you know, we just 789 00:42:14,120 --> 00:42:16,080 Speaker 1: don't want to give up those big plays. Does he 790 00:42:16,680 --> 00:42:19,840 Speaker 1: take that same approach or does he bring his safeties 791 00:42:19,880 --> 00:42:21,680 Speaker 1: more down and try to stop that run game because 792 00:42:21,680 --> 00:42:24,600 Speaker 1: Seattle was doing whatever it wanted on the ground that so, 793 00:42:25,200 --> 00:42:28,360 Speaker 1: but it all comes down to what that Kyle versus 794 00:42:28,600 --> 00:42:32,759 Speaker 1: McDonald chess match, Because if if Kyle's able to move 795 00:42:32,800 --> 00:42:36,080 Speaker 1: the ball and is able, you know, to identify some 796 00:42:36,120 --> 00:42:40,200 Speaker 1: of those weaknesses, then this is gonna be I think 797 00:42:40,280 --> 00:42:42,640 Speaker 1: this game of wover and there could be like twenty seven. 798 00:42:43,040 --> 00:42:45,719 Speaker 1: I could see being twenty seven to twenty. I could 799 00:42:45,719 --> 00:42:47,160 Speaker 1: see the forty nine's on the shot to pull off 800 00:42:47,200 --> 00:42:49,759 Speaker 1: the upset. But if Channan's, if they're not able to 801 00:42:49,760 --> 00:42:52,319 Speaker 1: move the ball and perty's under pressure, and I know 802 00:42:52,360 --> 00:42:53,560 Speaker 1: they're not going to be able to run the ball, 803 00:42:54,480 --> 00:42:58,680 Speaker 1: what McDonald will do is park it, and he's gonna 804 00:42:58,680 --> 00:43:02,719 Speaker 1: tell he's he knows. I don't. I My defense is 805 00:43:02,719 --> 00:43:06,120 Speaker 1: dominating this game. I'm not letting Donald lose it. And 806 00:43:06,160 --> 00:43:07,839 Speaker 1: then they're just gonna run it, and then they're gonna 807 00:43:07,840 --> 00:43:10,879 Speaker 1: you're gonna have these long drives and then the over 808 00:43:11,000 --> 00:43:13,959 Speaker 1: is gonna have no chance, and they're just gonna say 809 00:43:13,960 --> 00:43:14,440 Speaker 1: look now. 810 00:43:14,440 --> 00:43:16,360 Speaker 2: And he's the most conservative coach, doesn't go for it 811 00:43:16,400 --> 00:43:18,200 Speaker 2: on fourth downs, kicksfield goals. 812 00:43:18,719 --> 00:43:21,319 Speaker 1: So this is all that's gonna dictate the side. If 813 00:43:21,320 --> 00:43:23,319 Speaker 1: the forty nine's had a chance, that's that chess match. 814 00:43:23,360 --> 00:43:24,520 Speaker 1: How's it gonna play? I don't know. 815 00:43:25,840 --> 00:43:28,520 Speaker 2: I'm taking that. I'm taking the Niners seven points and 816 00:43:28,520 --> 00:43:31,440 Speaker 2: that's I mean, this game was what two and a half, 817 00:43:31,600 --> 00:43:34,280 Speaker 2: a couple of weeks ago. I think obviously we witnessed 818 00:43:34,280 --> 00:43:37,920 Speaker 2: that game. It was like Jesus Now, Trent didn't play pleasants, 819 00:43:37,920 --> 00:43:41,759 Speaker 2: getting you know, spun like a draidal a party. By 820 00:43:41,800 --> 00:43:43,040 Speaker 2: the end of the game, it felt like, God is 821 00:43:43,080 --> 00:43:46,279 Speaker 2: He's gonna die in this game. So that's it's part 822 00:43:46,320 --> 00:43:48,160 Speaker 2: of it. Uh. The forty nine ers when they're O 823 00:43:48,280 --> 00:43:50,120 Speaker 2: line does play bad. It does feel like they can 824 00:43:50,120 --> 00:43:52,400 Speaker 2: get physically overwhelmed. And this is one of the units 825 00:43:52,400 --> 00:43:54,560 Speaker 2: that God, they've they've been good. So to me, it's like, 826 00:43:54,840 --> 00:43:58,040 Speaker 2: can you just neutralize that front a little bit. They 827 00:43:58,080 --> 00:44:00,000 Speaker 2: always say party's gonna have to run around no matter 828 00:44:00,040 --> 00:44:02,600 Speaker 2: who they play, But like, if it's just if it 829 00:44:02,640 --> 00:44:04,959 Speaker 2: looks like Aaron Rodgers against the Texas, yeah they're gonna 830 00:44:04,960 --> 00:44:07,439 Speaker 2: get killed, right, and the score might not even reflect 831 00:44:07,480 --> 00:44:10,120 Speaker 2: quote unquote killed. It could be like seventeen to seven 832 00:44:10,160 --> 00:44:13,879 Speaker 2: final score, but it'll just be like a bludgeoning, you know, Yeah, and. 833 00:44:13,800 --> 00:44:15,480 Speaker 1: You'll feel like they have no chance to win it. 834 00:44:15,680 --> 00:44:18,200 Speaker 1: But yeah, Shanahan just has to draw. He has to 835 00:44:18,200 --> 00:44:20,279 Speaker 1: find a way like he did last week against a 836 00:44:20,280 --> 00:44:22,760 Speaker 1: team that doesn't give up exposed to plays like Seattle. 837 00:44:23,560 --> 00:44:26,040 Speaker 1: Find ways. It would be a big boost of pure 838 00:44:26,040 --> 00:44:29,920 Speaker 1: so could play and look healthy. But with Robinson Jennings. 839 00:44:31,080 --> 00:44:34,160 Speaker 1: I'm sure there's gonna be a ton of designed stuff 840 00:44:34,200 --> 00:44:39,440 Speaker 1: for McCaffrey out of the backfield, and then Herdy just 841 00:44:39,520 --> 00:44:43,680 Speaker 1: has to avoid forcing throws. Now, it's a fine balance. 842 00:44:43,680 --> 00:44:45,200 Speaker 1: You want to you got to hit some exposures. You're 843 00:44:45,239 --> 00:44:47,280 Speaker 1: not going to run the ball, but the Seattle defense 844 00:44:47,280 --> 00:44:50,439 Speaker 1: will take it away and they'll score. So uh yeah, 845 00:44:50,480 --> 00:44:52,480 Speaker 1: early in this game will tell you because if the 846 00:44:52,520 --> 00:44:55,480 Speaker 1: forty nine ers are struggling, this game is gonna die 847 00:44:55,840 --> 00:44:58,279 Speaker 1: because the Shawks are just gonna run it totally and 848 00:44:58,320 --> 00:45:00,640 Speaker 1: then punt it and rely on their day and field 849 00:45:00,719 --> 00:45:02,759 Speaker 1: goals and no to. 850 00:45:02,840 --> 00:45:04,879 Speaker 2: Shaheed too is a little bit of a curveball right 851 00:45:04,880 --> 00:45:10,040 Speaker 2: as a return many last week, Brian Robinson like barely 852 00:45:10,120 --> 00:45:12,279 Speaker 2: was making it to the twenty five like they were 853 00:45:12,320 --> 00:45:14,799 Speaker 2: kicking it to him. Sky Moore had won it. It did 854 00:45:14,840 --> 00:45:16,560 Speaker 2: not go well. I mean, part of it was like 855 00:45:16,600 --> 00:45:20,120 Speaker 2: they were starting like old school long NFL drives. They 856 00:45:20,120 --> 00:45:22,319 Speaker 2: didn't have any like oh, got to the forty you know. 857 00:45:22,400 --> 00:45:24,839 Speaker 2: I was like that that they're gonna need a little 858 00:45:24,880 --> 00:45:28,040 Speaker 2: bit more juice on especially if Jason let's say Myers 859 00:45:28,120 --> 00:45:29,799 Speaker 2: kicks like three field goals, like you're gonna get some 860 00:45:29,880 --> 00:45:33,359 Speaker 2: kickoff return opportunities. The Robinson thing, I don't know what 861 00:45:33,400 --> 00:45:35,800 Speaker 2: was going on, but he was going nowhere. He was 862 00:45:35,920 --> 00:45:38,480 Speaker 2: running the back of guys like bro, this is this 863 00:45:38,520 --> 00:45:40,480 Speaker 2: is a game that's gonna be decided by a couple 864 00:45:40,520 --> 00:45:43,160 Speaker 2: of yards here. This is not gonna work out. And 865 00:45:43,200 --> 00:45:45,200 Speaker 2: if Shaheed gives them some explosive plays and all of 866 00:45:45,200 --> 00:45:47,439 Speaker 2: a sudden they gotta drive from the fifty. It's shit 867 00:45:47,560 --> 00:45:49,480 Speaker 2: like that you're talking about that these games all come 868 00:45:49,520 --> 00:45:52,399 Speaker 2: down to small margins. That something I noticed big time, 869 00:45:52,480 --> 00:45:53,919 Speaker 2: Like this is not ideal here. 870 00:45:54,600 --> 00:45:57,760 Speaker 1: Yeah, the Jets somehow had a historically good special teams 871 00:45:57,800 --> 00:46:00,560 Speaker 1: this year. It's the only thing they did well. If 872 00:46:00,560 --> 00:46:03,200 Speaker 1: Folk is a kicker, really good return units, coverage units. 873 00:46:04,160 --> 00:46:07,160 Speaker 1: The Seahawks were right behind them. If you look at 874 00:46:07,280 --> 00:46:09,640 Speaker 1: a lot of the overall metrics, there are special teams 875 00:46:09,680 --> 00:46:11,680 Speaker 1: that are very very good. I think the forty nine 876 00:46:11,719 --> 00:46:14,880 Speaker 1: ers were around league average, but that could be some 877 00:46:14,960 --> 00:46:18,560 Speaker 1: hidden edge for Seattle. But Kyle has to be aggressive here. 878 00:46:18,600 --> 00:46:21,640 Speaker 1: I can't wait for the chess match like whenever you 879 00:46:21,760 --> 00:46:27,400 Speaker 1: doubt like Chanaan, Yeah in the playoffs, Yeah, so I 880 00:46:27,440 --> 00:46:28,960 Speaker 1: don't blame you for taking the points here. 881 00:46:29,840 --> 00:46:31,359 Speaker 2: Nine and four in the playoffs, and a lot of those. 882 00:46:31,440 --> 00:46:34,880 Speaker 2: This isn't like the Belichick you know, Brady Patriots. They 883 00:46:34,880 --> 00:46:37,200 Speaker 2: were underdogs and a lot of those wins. Right, Yeah, 884 00:46:37,840 --> 00:46:40,919 Speaker 2: So it's and pretty not like you know, coin flip games. 885 00:46:40,960 --> 00:46:43,960 Speaker 2: These were like over a field goal underdogs, you know, 886 00:46:44,000 --> 00:46:47,839 Speaker 2: at Dallas, at Green Bay, at Philly. I mean those 887 00:46:47,840 --> 00:46:50,200 Speaker 2: were games that most Niner fans like, yeah, I'm probably 888 00:46:50,239 --> 00:46:53,719 Speaker 2: not gonna win. You know. It's like that's and that's 889 00:46:53,719 --> 00:46:55,239 Speaker 2: what makes a great coach when people like, yeah, I'm 890 00:46:55,239 --> 00:46:56,800 Speaker 2: probably not gonna win, and then you get to the 891 00:46:56,840 --> 00:46:58,399 Speaker 2: point where it's like you just can't doubt the guy 892 00:46:58,520 --> 00:47:01,680 Speaker 2: because his team. So I don't know mentally what the 893 00:47:01,719 --> 00:47:03,920 Speaker 2: preparation going into the game, there's like a belief and 894 00:47:03,960 --> 00:47:06,080 Speaker 2: then you just got to make the game weird. So 895 00:47:07,200 --> 00:47:09,480 Speaker 2: it's just a great game. It really is. To me, 896 00:47:09,520 --> 00:47:10,760 Speaker 2: it's the best game of the weekend. 897 00:47:10,920 --> 00:47:12,279 Speaker 1: Yeah, I can't I can't wait for it. The other 898 00:47:12,320 --> 00:47:15,120 Speaker 1: thing is Donald struggles more against too high, which you assume. 899 00:47:15,840 --> 00:47:17,880 Speaker 1: So he ran a ton of That's usually what he 900 00:47:17,920 --> 00:47:20,560 Speaker 1: wants to do. Take away explosive, but then you'll leave 901 00:47:20,560 --> 00:47:23,680 Speaker 1: yourself vulnerable to the run game. So that you obviously 902 00:47:23,719 --> 00:47:25,920 Speaker 1: don't just run nothing. But to Islo, classic Can was 903 00:47:25,960 --> 00:47:28,680 Speaker 1: sixty six percent, but I'm curious to see that percentage. 904 00:47:28,840 --> 00:47:31,160 Speaker 1: But if the forty nine is able to score, you 905 00:47:31,600 --> 00:47:35,080 Speaker 1: make Donald have to throw and be more aggressive, and 906 00:47:35,120 --> 00:47:38,640 Speaker 1: then in those zones he's more likely to make a mistake, 907 00:47:39,280 --> 00:47:41,160 Speaker 1: and that's where you can really win this game. So 908 00:47:41,320 --> 00:47:43,239 Speaker 1: you'll know early on in this game how it's gonna go. 909 00:47:43,920 --> 00:47:46,760 Speaker 2: I'm not overthinking the same time, I'm taking the Texans. Obviously, 910 00:47:46,800 --> 00:47:49,040 Speaker 2: CJ makes you a little nervous. I was looking at 911 00:47:49,040 --> 00:47:51,759 Speaker 2: all the games they played and I was like, if 912 00:47:51,800 --> 00:47:55,400 Speaker 2: you remove the Chargers, who's the best defense that the 913 00:47:55,440 --> 00:47:59,239 Speaker 2: Patriots had played? I mean they got the Browns in 914 00:47:59,320 --> 00:47:59,960 Speaker 2: New England. 915 00:48:00,239 --> 00:48:01,839 Speaker 1: Yeah, Brown's the stand away from home. 916 00:48:02,080 --> 00:48:06,439 Speaker 2: No, so it's like not really anybody. And that game 917 00:48:06,560 --> 00:48:09,480 Speaker 2: was weird last week. If Herbert hadn't played, I mean, 918 00:48:09,520 --> 00:48:11,560 Speaker 2: that's as bad as it gets. It was nine to 919 00:48:11,560 --> 00:48:14,280 Speaker 2: three going to the fourth quarter, and your quarterback, fifty 920 00:48:14,320 --> 00:48:16,960 Speaker 2: million dollar guy that a lot of people like myself defend, 921 00:48:16,960 --> 00:48:20,560 Speaker 2: it's just playing a game like he's fucking Deshaun Kaiser 922 00:48:20,640 --> 00:48:22,600 Speaker 2: or something. You're like, what is going on here? And 923 00:48:22,640 --> 00:48:25,759 Speaker 2: it was still nine to three. Vrabel has done an 924 00:48:25,800 --> 00:48:29,160 Speaker 2: incredible job. The future is bright. They're gonna have aj 925 00:48:29,239 --> 00:48:31,880 Speaker 2: Brown on the team next year. Probably they'll be fine, 926 00:48:32,000 --> 00:48:34,520 Speaker 2: and they're gonna be legit sua well contender and yours. 927 00:48:34,800 --> 00:48:36,520 Speaker 2: I just don't know if they are right now. And 928 00:48:36,640 --> 00:48:38,799 Speaker 2: Drake Drake was really good in the second half. And 929 00:48:38,880 --> 00:48:42,160 Speaker 2: obviously the home field advantage New England is the fans 930 00:48:42,560 --> 00:48:45,120 Speaker 2: show they're up, they're used to winning. Play's gonna be rocking. 931 00:48:45,760 --> 00:48:48,480 Speaker 2: But that that Houston defense, I mean, if the Neil 932 00:48:48,520 --> 00:48:50,919 Speaker 2: Hunter is gonna look like Lawrence Taylor, and you also 933 00:48:50,920 --> 00:48:52,719 Speaker 2: have Will Anderson and the team speed they have in 934 00:48:52,760 --> 00:48:56,320 Speaker 2: the secondary, Petrie probably one of the more fun players 935 00:48:56,320 --> 00:48:58,879 Speaker 2: in the league. Throwback to a guy like we grew 936 00:48:58,960 --> 00:49:00,160 Speaker 2: up on. There are a bunch of guys like that 937 00:49:00,200 --> 00:49:01,640 Speaker 2: in the league that would just could do it all 938 00:49:01,680 --> 00:49:04,040 Speaker 2: and be fucking knock the shit out of you. Who 939 00:49:04,080 --> 00:49:06,000 Speaker 2: fungus kind of like that too, but Petrie feels like 940 00:49:06,000 --> 00:49:10,399 Speaker 2: a little bit more dynamic in the open field. This again, though, 941 00:49:10,440 --> 00:49:13,120 Speaker 2: I mean if their quarterback against the Patriots has four 942 00:49:13,160 --> 00:49:15,239 Speaker 2: fumbles and a half, loses a couple and throws a 943 00:49:15,239 --> 00:49:17,799 Speaker 2: pick that it's just hits a guy in the numbers, Yeah, 944 00:49:17,800 --> 00:49:20,480 Speaker 2: they'll lose. And to me, Demko is sitting them down. 945 00:49:20,480 --> 00:49:22,799 Speaker 2: Like CJ. You the number two pick in the draft 946 00:49:22,840 --> 00:49:24,440 Speaker 2: to come from Ohio State, you were a star player. 947 00:49:24,840 --> 00:49:26,160 Speaker 2: We need you to play like trend Deil for a 948 00:49:26,160 --> 00:49:28,880 Speaker 2: Brad johnsonbody like, let's let's calm it down a little bit. 949 00:49:28,880 --> 00:49:31,560 Speaker 2: It's on the offensive coordinator to Miko, just we don't 950 00:49:31,600 --> 00:49:33,840 Speaker 2: need you to play hero ball because our defense is 951 00:49:33,920 --> 00:49:36,640 Speaker 2: poised to just carry us. And if you're gonna run 952 00:49:36,640 --> 00:49:40,000 Speaker 2: the ball like that, it's like CJ. No turnovers. He 953 00:49:40,280 --> 00:49:41,800 Speaker 2: I feel like he plays like a guy trying to 954 00:49:41,920 --> 00:49:44,040 Speaker 2: prove he's a star. It's like, bro, they don't need 955 00:49:44,080 --> 00:49:46,640 Speaker 2: this right now. Perty got fifty million dollars a year 956 00:49:46,680 --> 00:49:48,600 Speaker 2: by just just do what the court coach tells you 957 00:49:48,640 --> 00:49:51,920 Speaker 2: to do. Also, it wasn't his fault when you run 958 00:49:51,920 --> 00:49:53,600 Speaker 2: a flee If I say, hey, a team runs a 959 00:49:53,600 --> 00:49:56,000 Speaker 2: flea flicker, don't you usually think about that like later 960 00:49:56,080 --> 00:49:58,239 Speaker 2: in the game after you establish the run. Isn't that 961 00:49:58,239 --> 00:50:00,800 Speaker 2: part of the play. Yes, you don't run in the 962 00:50:00,840 --> 00:50:01,440 Speaker 2: first quarter. 963 00:50:02,440 --> 00:50:07,000 Speaker 1: No, that was bizarre. I had no idea on this game, 964 00:50:07,040 --> 00:50:10,280 Speaker 1: to be honest, I part of it is I struggled 965 00:50:10,280 --> 00:50:12,560 Speaker 1: to what to make of the pass because of their schedule. 966 00:50:12,640 --> 00:50:15,759 Speaker 1: They had the easiest schedule of any team over the 967 00:50:15,760 --> 00:50:18,759 Speaker 1: past thirty years. Now they finally so. They played no 968 00:50:18,880 --> 00:50:22,439 Speaker 1: defenses with a pulse until the Chargers, the first top 969 00:50:22,480 --> 00:50:24,839 Speaker 1: ten defense they played. Texans are another level and their 970 00:50:24,880 --> 00:50:28,399 Speaker 1: offense struggled like may fumbled it a couple times, throw 971 00:50:28,440 --> 00:50:32,320 Speaker 1: a pick. It wasn't the same smooth operation as you 972 00:50:32,360 --> 00:50:35,480 Speaker 1: would expect as when they stepped up in class. The 973 00:50:35,480 --> 00:50:38,520 Speaker 1: same to be set of their defense, which hasn't They 974 00:50:38,640 --> 00:50:40,880 Speaker 1: played like the only offense with a pole. Like the 975 00:50:40,960 --> 00:50:43,520 Speaker 1: quarterbacks they faced over the course of the season, it 976 00:50:43,560 --> 00:50:47,240 Speaker 1: was rookies, backups, guys who were benched in like eleven 977 00:50:47,239 --> 00:50:50,520 Speaker 1: of the of their womins. They faced Allen twice, they 978 00:50:50,560 --> 00:50:53,399 Speaker 1: split right and they got torched in the second game. 979 00:50:54,800 --> 00:50:56,600 Speaker 1: They didn't really face any other good quarterbacks. Then they 980 00:50:56,640 --> 00:51:02,520 Speaker 1: faced Herbert, and Herbert is a top ten back, many 981 00:51:02,600 --> 00:51:05,600 Speaker 1: have him the top five, and they shut him down. Now, 982 00:51:05,680 --> 00:51:09,120 Speaker 1: was that the Chargers offensive line and Herbert? But that 983 00:51:09,160 --> 00:51:12,360 Speaker 1: could look the same here. The Texans offensive line isn't great, 984 00:51:12,880 --> 00:51:16,719 Speaker 1: their running game isn't great, and you know Stroud could 985 00:51:16,719 --> 00:51:18,799 Speaker 1: struggle in the pocket. You could have a similar game 986 00:51:18,840 --> 00:51:21,760 Speaker 1: plan here, you know, blitz heavy. Stroud struggles against the blitz, 987 00:51:22,480 --> 00:51:26,719 Speaker 1: and this Texans offense could look broken as it does 988 00:51:26,760 --> 00:51:28,160 Speaker 1: at times. You got to remember, I mean remember the 989 00:51:28,160 --> 00:51:32,719 Speaker 1: Steelers defense has been pretty bad all year. But I 990 00:51:32,800 --> 00:51:35,399 Speaker 1: just don't know enough about it because I also saw 991 00:51:35,440 --> 00:51:37,759 Speaker 1: Herbert missing throws and missing guys that were over. 992 00:51:37,840 --> 00:51:40,360 Speaker 2: Guys were open, he's over, He's airmailing them by like 993 00:51:40,440 --> 00:51:41,080 Speaker 2: ten feet. 994 00:51:41,600 --> 00:51:44,239 Speaker 1: Wasn't even close. So even that game is hard for 995 00:51:44,280 --> 00:51:46,759 Speaker 1: me to really measure what this Pats is. Now, they 996 00:51:46,760 --> 00:51:48,239 Speaker 1: do a good job of these guys and coverages and 997 00:51:48,280 --> 00:51:52,200 Speaker 1: changing things. Now, Christian Gonzalez, they don't have depth at corner. 998 00:51:52,200 --> 00:51:54,000 Speaker 1: If he's out with concussion, and then you also have 999 00:51:54,040 --> 00:51:56,160 Speaker 1: the Nico Collins thing, I think it would hurt the 1000 00:51:56,200 --> 00:51:58,400 Speaker 1: Pats more if Gonzalez is out. I think there's a 1001 00:51:58,440 --> 00:52:00,560 Speaker 1: more higher chance that Collins is out short week. It 1002 00:52:00,600 --> 00:52:03,040 Speaker 1: looked bad, but when he was out earlier this year, 1003 00:52:03,040 --> 00:52:06,320 Speaker 1: they developed some depth at wide receiver. But this basically 1004 00:52:06,360 --> 00:52:12,440 Speaker 1: just comes down to how dominant can the Texans defense be, 1005 00:52:13,040 --> 00:52:15,279 Speaker 1: Like they have the defense that can carry them to 1006 00:52:15,320 --> 00:52:21,120 Speaker 1: a Super Bowl. Imagine if we get Houston Seattle Super 1007 00:52:21,160 --> 00:52:26,880 Speaker 1: Bowl what that total would be. So but they have 1008 00:52:26,960 --> 00:52:28,600 Speaker 1: the defense that can carry them to a super Bowl. 1009 00:52:28,719 --> 00:52:30,439 Speaker 1: How many plays can they make? I mean, had two 1010 00:52:30,440 --> 00:52:35,719 Speaker 1: defensive touchdowns last week? Margins are thin. This totals forty one. 1011 00:52:36,920 --> 00:52:40,720 Speaker 1: This line's trending to three and a half at that point, 1012 00:52:41,400 --> 00:52:43,640 Speaker 1: I think you have to look at Houston. I just 1013 00:52:43,680 --> 00:52:45,520 Speaker 1: don't have a great feel on this Pats team just 1014 00:52:45,520 --> 00:52:48,320 Speaker 1: because of the lack of data points against strong competition, 1015 00:52:49,840 --> 00:52:52,400 Speaker 1: and it just might be a struggle for this Houston 1016 00:52:52,440 --> 00:52:55,799 Speaker 1: offense because the Pats can employ that same game plan 1017 00:52:55,840 --> 00:52:59,200 Speaker 1: as last week, and you know, having Nego Collins will 1018 00:52:59,560 --> 00:53:02,279 Speaker 1: not having Nico Collins would would definitely hurt their their 1019 00:53:02,280 --> 00:53:06,239 Speaker 1: playmaking ability. But this will just come down to how 1020 00:53:06,360 --> 00:53:09,200 Speaker 1: good I can't wait to watch another great chestments is Drake. 1021 00:53:09,280 --> 00:53:11,719 Speaker 1: May you know number one in e paper drop back 1022 00:53:12,320 --> 00:53:16,160 Speaker 1: versus this Houston pass defense, which is historically good. Number 1023 00:53:16,160 --> 00:53:19,719 Speaker 1: one ePaper drop back allowed how much pressure because the 1024 00:53:19,719 --> 00:53:21,839 Speaker 1: pressure could just be overwhelming on that end as well. 1025 00:53:22,040 --> 00:53:26,440 Speaker 1: You saw the Chargers. The Chargers are not an elite 1026 00:53:26,520 --> 00:53:31,000 Speaker 1: defense in terms of getting pressure, and they were in 1027 00:53:31,000 --> 00:53:33,600 Speaker 1: the backfield all day I think they had five or 1028 00:53:33,640 --> 00:53:38,399 Speaker 1: six stacks always looked like an All Pro, and their 1029 00:53:38,480 --> 00:53:41,480 Speaker 1: rookie tackle Will Campbell looked. 1030 00:53:41,200 --> 00:53:43,960 Speaker 2: Rough shove him back a lot. 1031 00:53:44,120 --> 00:53:47,319 Speaker 1: You know, this is another step up in class the 1032 00:53:47,360 --> 00:53:51,520 Speaker 1: Texans pass rush, So how may handles that will be 1033 00:53:51,560 --> 00:53:53,560 Speaker 1: interesting to see. But yeah, if you want to take 1034 00:53:53,560 --> 00:53:56,399 Speaker 1: the points here with you know that defense in which 1035 00:53:56,440 --> 00:54:00,359 Speaker 1: should be a lower scoring affair, I will. I won't 1036 00:54:00,400 --> 00:54:02,120 Speaker 1: talk you off, bit I just don't have a strong feel. 1037 00:54:03,120 --> 00:54:05,480 Speaker 2: My logic on the Bears is simple. They could be 1038 00:54:05,560 --> 00:54:08,440 Speaker 2: down twenty in the second half and you look up 1039 00:54:08,440 --> 00:54:10,359 Speaker 2: an hour later in the games in overtime. So I'm 1040 00:54:10,400 --> 00:54:12,120 Speaker 2: just taking them in the points. I mean, it just 1041 00:54:12,560 --> 00:54:14,920 Speaker 2: it feels like the football gods are just hanging out 1042 00:54:14,920 --> 00:54:16,680 Speaker 2: in their locker room this year. I mean, they score 1043 00:54:16,719 --> 00:54:18,800 Speaker 2: twenty five points in the fourth quarter, they're down twenty 1044 00:54:18,800 --> 00:54:20,680 Speaker 2: one to three and a half, and then they come 1045 00:54:20,719 --> 00:54:22,799 Speaker 2: back and win the game outright. I mean, it's just 1046 00:54:23,840 --> 00:54:28,400 Speaker 2: that stadium, it's just a lover of atmospheres. Looks incredible 1047 00:54:28,400 --> 00:54:31,640 Speaker 2: on television. I mean, that place is rocking. It just 1048 00:54:31,680 --> 00:54:36,120 Speaker 2: feels a little more potent than like what we saw 1049 00:54:36,120 --> 00:54:38,040 Speaker 2: with the Commanders. I think they're a little bit better, 1050 00:54:38,120 --> 00:54:40,759 Speaker 2: but defensively, same type thing. They're just not very good. 1051 00:54:40,800 --> 00:54:42,799 Speaker 2: They can't cover a soul, which you would think in 1052 00:54:42,920 --> 00:54:46,239 Speaker 2: theory is not good against Puka. Nakua's probably the best 1053 00:54:46,280 --> 00:54:48,839 Speaker 2: receiver in the league so far this year, and Davante's back. 1054 00:54:49,560 --> 00:54:51,359 Speaker 2: The tight ends can all catch. I mean, their running 1055 00:54:51,400 --> 00:54:54,759 Speaker 2: backs are good, but stafford Man just has these weird stretches. 1056 00:54:56,600 --> 00:54:59,160 Speaker 2: It's gonna be cold. I'm just taking the Bears in 1057 00:54:59,200 --> 00:55:02,520 Speaker 2: the points. Don't feel right about it, but how can 1058 00:55:02,560 --> 00:55:04,319 Speaker 2: you go against them right now? With the way that 1059 00:55:04,440 --> 00:55:06,600 Speaker 2: everything keeps shaking out every single game. 1060 00:55:08,239 --> 00:55:13,120 Speaker 1: It's it's insane. I what I played here, this total 1061 00:55:13,160 --> 00:55:15,359 Speaker 1: came down a bit. It's hard for me to see 1062 00:55:15,360 --> 00:55:18,120 Speaker 1: either one of these defenses getting stops. I played some 1063 00:55:18,200 --> 00:55:22,239 Speaker 1: rams over twenty six and a half points, so over 1064 00:55:22,280 --> 00:55:26,080 Speaker 1: twenty six and a half their team total. This is 1065 00:55:26,120 --> 00:55:29,239 Speaker 1: a team versus if you remove the nine, if you 1066 00:55:29,280 --> 00:55:32,120 Speaker 1: remove the top five defenses from their schedule, so Seattle, 1067 00:55:32,320 --> 00:55:34,960 Speaker 1: Houston and Philly, I mean, then they scored twenty six 1068 00:55:35,000 --> 00:55:39,480 Speaker 1: versus Philly and we missed two field goals. They averaged 1069 00:55:39,520 --> 00:55:41,919 Speaker 1: thirty two and a half points per game. They got 1070 00:55:41,920 --> 00:55:45,600 Speaker 1: the twenty seven and eleven of the fourteen and a 1071 00:55:45,600 --> 00:55:47,440 Speaker 1: couple of them they just didn't have to and one 1072 00:55:47,440 --> 00:55:49,799 Speaker 1: of them against Seattle, they put up thirty eight and. 1073 00:55:49,760 --> 00:55:52,440 Speaker 2: They led the league in scoring anyway, right with the factory, 1074 00:55:52,160 --> 00:55:52,640 Speaker 2: and so I. 1075 00:55:52,640 --> 00:55:54,319 Speaker 1: Think they get the twenty seven plus. I mean, this 1076 00:55:54,360 --> 00:55:57,400 Speaker 1: is a Bears defense that's you know, twenty eighth PVOA, 1077 00:55:57,520 --> 00:56:00,759 Speaker 1: twenty six, success rate, thirtieth and epa. If you remove turnovers, 1078 00:56:02,120 --> 00:56:04,720 Speaker 1: their turnover luck is extreme. It's not gonna last forever. 1079 00:56:05,960 --> 00:56:09,080 Speaker 1: They're twenty third points allowed despite leading the lead league 1080 00:56:09,080 --> 00:56:14,000 Speaker 1: in turnover margin. Additionally, you know you have there is 1081 00:56:14,160 --> 00:56:17,319 Speaker 1: some concern with the Stafford finger and then the in 1082 00:56:17,360 --> 00:56:21,080 Speaker 1: the cold, the Adams handstring. In the cold, you're gonna 1083 00:56:21,080 --> 00:56:23,720 Speaker 1: see a lot of stats of Stafford has struggled historically 1084 00:56:23,719 --> 00:56:26,360 Speaker 1: in the cold, like his win loss recer. But a 1085 00:56:26,360 --> 00:56:28,360 Speaker 1: lot of those games were when he was with a 1086 00:56:28,520 --> 00:56:30,960 Speaker 1: bad Lions team. Remember last year he almost beat the 1087 00:56:30,960 --> 00:56:33,400 Speaker 1: Super Bowl champion in Philly in the snow, and he 1088 00:56:33,440 --> 00:56:36,239 Speaker 1: looked great. I don't it's hard for him. 1089 00:56:36,120 --> 00:56:38,200 Speaker 2: Because he had the Ravens game a couple of years ago, 1090 00:56:38,320 --> 00:56:40,319 Speaker 2: remember when he was unreal. I mean, it's like one 1091 00:56:40,320 --> 00:56:42,439 Speaker 2: of the best games I've ever seen. Definitely the last 1092 00:56:42,440 --> 00:56:43,920 Speaker 2: like five years is as good of a game as 1093 00:56:43,920 --> 00:56:45,719 Speaker 2: you're gonna see. I know he didn't the end it 1094 00:56:45,760 --> 00:56:47,799 Speaker 2: on a pick, but he was fantastic in that game. 1095 00:56:47,960 --> 00:56:51,160 Speaker 1: Yeah, they should have won that game. So I think 1096 00:56:51,160 --> 00:56:53,360 Speaker 1: he'll be fine. This Bears defense, they don't get pressure. 1097 00:56:53,560 --> 00:56:55,960 Speaker 1: They're now missing t. J. Edwards as well at linebacker. 1098 00:56:56,000 --> 00:56:59,520 Speaker 1: Their depth of linebackers really shaky. They really just can't 1099 00:56:59,560 --> 00:57:03,200 Speaker 1: get any Their rundy is really really bad. One of 1100 00:57:03,280 --> 00:57:06,360 Speaker 1: my favorite props. I like some Korm props, but Korm 1101 00:57:06,360 --> 00:57:12,080 Speaker 1: over eleven and a half longest rush he's I mean, 1102 00:57:12,120 --> 00:57:15,480 Speaker 1: he's had I think twenty three rushes of ten plus yards, 1103 00:57:16,320 --> 00:57:18,360 Speaker 1: one carry at least twelve yards, and ten of the 1104 00:57:18,400 --> 00:57:21,160 Speaker 1: seventeen games that he's played, if you're a movie opener, 1105 00:57:21,280 --> 00:57:24,200 Speaker 1: only had one carry and that's despite not getting an 1106 00:57:24,200 --> 00:57:28,440 Speaker 1: increased workload until like Week seven. But Kevin Dotson I 1107 00:57:28,480 --> 00:57:30,320 Speaker 1: think is going to be back. That's huge. He's one 1108 00:57:30,360 --> 00:57:32,720 Speaker 1: of the best run blocking offensive linemen in the NFL. 1109 00:57:32,720 --> 00:57:36,600 Speaker 1: They missed him down the stretch. That'll help their run game, 1110 00:57:36,640 --> 00:57:39,360 Speaker 1: and the Bears give up tons of run explosives. One 1111 00:57:39,360 --> 00:57:41,720 Speaker 1: of the worst defenses in the league at giving up 1112 00:57:41,760 --> 00:57:46,920 Speaker 1: big runs. So yeah, I think that they'll I like 1113 00:57:47,000 --> 00:57:49,400 Speaker 1: that Korm. I think the Bears allowed a run of 1114 00:57:49,440 --> 00:57:52,800 Speaker 1: twelve plus and fifteen of the eighteen games to non quarterbacks. 1115 00:57:54,720 --> 00:57:57,920 Speaker 1: Multiple backs in the same game got a run of 1116 00:57:57,960 --> 00:58:01,520 Speaker 1: twelve plus yards in seven of their eighteen games, and 1117 00:58:01,600 --> 00:58:03,480 Speaker 1: like the teams that didn't were like the Browns. Even 1118 00:58:03,480 --> 00:58:07,200 Speaker 1: though Shador standers said a twenty yard run, they just 1119 00:58:07,280 --> 00:58:10,479 Speaker 1: I mean Gino Smith had a twenty yard run against them. 1120 00:58:11,000 --> 00:58:12,760 Speaker 1: So I think Korm can have a big day here. 1121 00:58:12,760 --> 00:58:15,800 Speaker 1: I like his longest rush over eleven and a half. 1122 00:58:16,440 --> 00:58:20,080 Speaker 1: I like the Rams to score, but you're right, I 1123 00:58:20,120 --> 00:58:22,760 Speaker 1: could the Bears match them is there's some Bears magic 1124 00:58:22,880 --> 00:58:25,880 Speaker 1: and you have these two offensive gurus going up against 1125 00:58:25,960 --> 00:58:29,200 Speaker 1: vulnerable defenses. I think it's gonna be a ton of 1126 00:58:29,200 --> 00:58:32,040 Speaker 1: explosive plays, which is good for an over so I 1127 00:58:32,080 --> 00:58:34,080 Speaker 1: don't I think this total has come down a bit 1128 00:58:34,280 --> 00:58:36,320 Speaker 1: too much. Now. I get it's gonna be like freezing cold. 1129 00:58:36,360 --> 00:58:38,240 Speaker 1: Both teams could rely on the run a bit more, 1130 00:58:39,120 --> 00:58:42,680 Speaker 1: but not enough people are talking about the Rams defense 1131 00:58:43,480 --> 00:58:48,000 Speaker 1: has dropped off significantly over the first twelve weeks of 1132 00:58:48,040 --> 00:58:51,880 Speaker 1: the year. They were number one in EPA per play, 1133 00:58:52,480 --> 00:58:54,240 Speaker 1: But I kept saying, like, I think this defense is 1134 00:58:54,280 --> 00:58:56,520 Speaker 1: a bit overrated, because I don't believe we were saying this. 1135 00:58:56,560 --> 00:58:58,920 Speaker 1: We don't believe, really believe in their secondary, which is 1136 00:58:58,960 --> 00:59:01,320 Speaker 1: the weak point. They were number one of the EPA 1137 00:59:01,360 --> 00:59:04,000 Speaker 1: play But you gotta remember they played the Bucks, and 1138 00:59:04,080 --> 00:59:06,560 Speaker 1: the Bucks offense was bad from Week seven off if 1139 00:59:06,560 --> 00:59:09,040 Speaker 1: Baker got hurt, right and that game was just a joke. 1140 00:59:09,200 --> 00:59:12,440 Speaker 1: They played the Ravens when it was Cooper Rush. They 1141 00:59:12,480 --> 00:59:15,040 Speaker 1: played Stroud when like two of his offensive in Week 1142 00:59:15,040 --> 00:59:16,640 Speaker 1: one and two of his offensive linemen got ruled out 1143 00:59:16,680 --> 00:59:18,720 Speaker 1: right before the game, they had to shuffle everyone around. 1144 00:59:19,160 --> 00:59:23,080 Speaker 1: They played cam Warden, the second start Spencer Rattler, so 1145 00:59:23,200 --> 00:59:27,920 Speaker 1: like the first you know, half of the season, they 1146 00:59:28,120 --> 00:59:31,880 Speaker 1: benefited from a lot of opposing quarterback and offensive line situations. 1147 00:59:33,360 --> 00:59:35,840 Speaker 1: And then over the final seven games. Over the last 1148 00:59:35,880 --> 00:59:38,760 Speaker 1: seven games, including last week in the Wildcard, they're twentieth 1149 00:59:38,800 --> 00:59:42,200 Speaker 1: in EPA per play. And they faced the Panthers twice 1150 00:59:42,640 --> 00:59:45,760 Speaker 1: and the Cardinals twice, so it's not like they were 1151 00:59:46,040 --> 00:59:50,240 Speaker 1: facing nothing, but these elite offensive teams, they're giving up 1152 00:59:50,240 --> 00:59:53,080 Speaker 1: a ton of explosive plays. The secondary is vulnerable. The 1153 00:59:53,120 --> 00:59:57,240 Speaker 1: Bears can hit those, So yeah, I think the Rams 1154 00:59:57,240 --> 00:59:59,200 Speaker 1: can do whatever they want here, Like they can run 1155 00:59:59,240 --> 01:00:02,880 Speaker 1: the ball, they could go heavy personnel. The Bears struggle 1156 01:00:02,880 --> 01:00:07,200 Speaker 1: in that aspect as well, but Caleb Williams keeps improving 1157 01:00:07,360 --> 01:00:09,880 Speaker 1: this Ben Johnson offense. I think he's gonna be aggressive 1158 01:00:09,920 --> 01:00:13,640 Speaker 1: as well in like fourth downs. I think the Bacon 1159 01:00:13,720 --> 01:00:18,400 Speaker 1: hit explosives keep the pressure on Los Angeles. So yeah, 1160 01:00:18,480 --> 01:00:22,040 Speaker 1: don't don't doubt the Bears every one. I always sweet 1161 01:00:22,080 --> 01:00:24,760 Speaker 1: Every Bears game is the same, but I did play 1162 01:00:24,760 --> 01:00:29,160 Speaker 1: some Rams team total over some and then some corn 1163 01:00:29,280 --> 01:00:32,960 Speaker 1: props should be a go on though again between two 1164 01:00:33,120 --> 01:00:35,320 Speaker 1: awesome offensive mines. 1165 01:00:49,040 --> 01:00:51,520 Speaker 2: Well, I won't talk to you until after the National 1166 01:00:51,560 --> 01:00:54,240 Speaker 2: Championship game. It feels like there are like two plays. 1167 01:00:55,120 --> 01:00:59,200 Speaker 2: Indiana blows out basically everybody except Ohio State. So it's 1168 01:00:59,200 --> 01:01:01,000 Speaker 2: like just take down and the points eight and a 1169 01:01:01,040 --> 01:01:04,840 Speaker 2: half and they'd win by fifteen twenty points. Or it's 1170 01:01:04,880 --> 01:01:08,439 Speaker 2: like take Miami money line, like cause if the game's closed, 1171 01:01:08,480 --> 01:01:11,160 Speaker 2: like Miami would have a chance to win, right, But 1172 01:01:11,760 --> 01:01:16,200 Speaker 2: it's like, do I trust Mario's team with a bunch 1173 01:01:16,240 --> 01:01:20,920 Speaker 2: of penalties? I guess the players just take Indiana in 1174 01:01:20,960 --> 01:01:24,040 Speaker 2: this spot though, It's like, is it just gonna turn 1175 01:01:24,080 --> 01:01:25,959 Speaker 2: out to be? They played in the playoffs and blew 1176 01:01:25,960 --> 01:01:28,680 Speaker 2: everyone out after playing that close game against Olio State. 1177 01:01:29,920 --> 01:01:32,600 Speaker 1: Yeah, this is a tough game. I mean, I make it. 1178 01:01:33,600 --> 01:01:37,480 Speaker 1: I make this spread down. I'm just I've been aggressively 1179 01:01:37,560 --> 01:01:41,200 Speaker 1: up upgrading Indiana. I make this spread ten on a 1180 01:01:41,280 --> 01:01:44,600 Speaker 1: neutral But I'm struggling to determine what do I make 1181 01:01:44,640 --> 01:01:47,960 Speaker 1: the home field advantage here? So, like I don't think 1182 01:01:47,960 --> 01:01:50,760 Speaker 1: it's a full home field advantage, so I don't know. 1183 01:01:50,800 --> 01:01:52,680 Speaker 1: I'm using like a point and a half, so like 1184 01:01:52,720 --> 01:01:53,960 Speaker 1: I make it like eight and a half, which is 1185 01:01:53,960 --> 01:01:56,560 Speaker 1: where it is. But I don't know how like what 1186 01:01:56,600 --> 01:01:59,000 Speaker 1: the home field should be here, Like they are playing 1187 01:01:59,000 --> 01:02:02,760 Speaker 1: at home, but I imagine, like this is Indiana's all in year. 1188 01:02:03,360 --> 01:02:06,520 Speaker 1: They have the largest alumni base of any school in 1189 01:02:06,560 --> 01:02:10,880 Speaker 1: the country, so this crowd is going to be I 1190 01:02:10,920 --> 01:02:15,600 Speaker 1: don't know, split, So Miami's technically the road team, which 1191 01:02:15,640 --> 01:02:17,640 Speaker 1: was funny. So I don't really know what make home 1192 01:02:17,720 --> 01:02:22,280 Speaker 1: field but this this just could be a scenario. Every 1193 01:02:22,320 --> 01:02:25,920 Speaker 1: once in a while in college football, you have a 1194 01:02:25,920 --> 01:02:30,800 Speaker 1: team where the market never catches up to twenty nineteen LSU. 1195 01:02:31,040 --> 01:02:32,680 Speaker 1: Every week you were talking about the sharps are you 1196 01:02:32,680 --> 01:02:36,160 Speaker 1: would have sharps. The sharp's even bet against LSU and 1197 01:02:36,160 --> 01:02:39,320 Speaker 1: the championship against Clemson, there was a lot of sharp 1198 01:02:39,320 --> 01:02:41,080 Speaker 1: money against LSU again, and all this team would do 1199 01:02:41,120 --> 01:02:43,600 Speaker 1: was cover, cover, cover. I lost a lot of money 1200 01:02:43,600 --> 01:02:44,320 Speaker 1: betting against. 1201 01:02:44,160 --> 01:02:46,600 Speaker 2: F ther I don't even remember. They blew Clemson out 1202 01:02:46,600 --> 01:02:47,000 Speaker 2: in that game. 1203 01:02:47,160 --> 01:02:48,919 Speaker 1: Blew them out. Yeah, they were blowing every They blew 1204 01:02:48,920 --> 01:02:52,040 Speaker 1: everybody out, even though their defense was bad, and that's 1205 01:02:52,080 --> 01:02:53,800 Speaker 1: what a lot of people are seeing. But their offense 1206 01:02:53,920 --> 01:02:55,200 Speaker 1: was just so good it didn't matter. 1207 01:02:55,520 --> 01:02:57,560 Speaker 2: It turns out they had Jamar Chase, Justin Jefferson and 1208 01:02:57,640 --> 01:02:59,560 Speaker 2: Joe Burrow, like, yeah, pretty good combo. 1209 01:03:00,040 --> 01:03:04,400 Speaker 1: Pretty decent. So but yeah, the market just could never 1210 01:03:04,480 --> 01:03:06,800 Speaker 1: catch up to how good they were. And that just 1211 01:03:06,840 --> 01:03:10,080 Speaker 1: might be the case for Indiana. That's my my fear 1212 01:03:10,160 --> 01:03:11,960 Speaker 1: for I don't think Miami's gonna be able to like 1213 01:03:12,000 --> 01:03:13,320 Speaker 1: they might be to run the ball a little bit. 1214 01:03:13,920 --> 01:03:15,640 Speaker 1: I played the under here. I played on some under 1215 01:03:15,680 --> 01:03:18,919 Speaker 1: forty and a half under forty eight I did. Both 1216 01:03:18,920 --> 01:03:21,960 Speaker 1: these teams are very slow. I do have a lot 1217 01:03:22,000 --> 01:03:23,680 Speaker 1: of respect for the Miami defense. I do think that 1218 01:03:23,720 --> 01:03:25,840 Speaker 1: they'll be able to get some pressure. That that right 1219 01:03:25,840 --> 01:03:29,000 Speaker 1: side of the Indiana offensive line is a bit vulnerable. 1220 01:03:30,200 --> 01:03:33,600 Speaker 1: The Miami defense is real, and then the Indiana defense, 1221 01:03:33,600 --> 01:03:36,560 Speaker 1: they're so buttoned up it's very hard to consistently run 1222 01:03:36,600 --> 01:03:40,400 Speaker 1: against them. Carson Beck has not been great in the playoff. 1223 01:03:40,520 --> 01:03:42,520 Speaker 1: Why he doesn't gonna do much, It's really on the defense. 1224 01:03:43,080 --> 01:03:45,600 Speaker 1: But I think this will be more of a rock 1225 01:03:45,640 --> 01:03:51,400 Speaker 1: fight type of game, lower scoring, there's no reason. There's 1226 01:03:51,400 --> 01:03:53,080 Speaker 1: no need for Indiana to run it up at the 1227 01:03:53,200 --> 01:03:57,640 Speaker 1: end like to show off, which sometimes comes into play 1228 01:03:57,640 --> 01:04:00,320 Speaker 1: in their games. But I think I think this will 1229 01:04:00,320 --> 01:04:03,600 Speaker 1: be more of a defensive game, field position game. The temph, 1230 01:04:03,840 --> 01:04:06,680 Speaker 1: the pace will be very slow. Miami's going to play 1231 01:04:06,680 --> 01:04:09,600 Speaker 1: how Miami does. They're going to want to just run, run, 1232 01:04:09,680 --> 01:04:13,280 Speaker 1: control the clock, play field position, rely on that defense. 1233 01:04:14,240 --> 01:04:18,600 Speaker 1: But I think Indiana will get Beck into just too 1234 01:04:18,640 --> 01:04:22,800 Speaker 1: many known passing downs and then their pressure packages. Miami 1235 01:04:22,840 --> 01:04:25,040 Speaker 1: is a really good offensive line that's a great battle watch, 1236 01:04:25,080 --> 01:04:28,960 Speaker 1: but their pressure and blitz packages are incredible, and Beck 1237 01:04:29,080 --> 01:04:33,080 Speaker 1: is not good under pressure. So I think it's going 1238 01:04:33,120 --> 01:04:35,040 Speaker 1: to be a struggle for the Miami offense. So I 1239 01:04:35,080 --> 01:04:37,200 Speaker 1: did play the under I think I'm spot on with 1240 01:04:37,640 --> 01:04:40,360 Speaker 1: the number. I couldn't talk anyone out. I've heard good 1241 01:04:40,360 --> 01:04:43,280 Speaker 1: cases for Miami and good cases for Indiana. It just 1242 01:04:43,280 --> 01:04:47,320 Speaker 1: comes down to how historically dominant this Indiana team is. 1243 01:04:47,360 --> 01:04:49,640 Speaker 1: But my biggest fear is what you brought up. Indiana 1244 01:04:49,760 --> 01:04:55,680 Speaker 1: is so buttoned up that they're just execution monsters. Yeah, 1245 01:04:55,720 --> 01:04:59,040 Speaker 1: and I mean on third down. Their third down offense 1246 01:04:59,120 --> 01:05:01,840 Speaker 1: is historically good fifty five percent. That's a range you 1247 01:05:01,960 --> 01:05:04,280 Speaker 1: rarely see, like five or six teams over the past 1248 01:05:04,280 --> 01:05:08,320 Speaker 1: ten years. Their giveaway, they never turned the ball over, 1249 01:05:09,160 --> 01:05:13,840 Speaker 1: they never get penalized. And this is a Miami team 1250 01:05:13,880 --> 01:05:18,680 Speaker 1: that's undisciplined, right outside the top one hundred penalties back 1251 01:05:18,720 --> 01:05:23,000 Speaker 1: at times can put the ball on Harm's way. 1252 01:05:23,240 --> 01:05:27,440 Speaker 2: So that well, their whole thing is like violent or crazy, 1253 01:05:27,600 --> 01:05:31,880 Speaker 2: we're tough, where Signette's like, we're like the Navy Seals 1254 01:05:31,880 --> 01:05:34,680 Speaker 2: were dialed. We execute, we don't fuck around. He doesn't 1255 01:05:34,920 --> 01:05:37,960 Speaker 2: he doesn't use violent like Mario's uses violence every time 1256 01:05:38,000 --> 01:05:41,640 Speaker 2: he talks. Signetti's much more like execution like Nick right, 1257 01:05:41,720 --> 01:05:43,240 Speaker 2: And then the violence is just part of that the 1258 01:05:43,240 --> 01:05:47,240 Speaker 2: way they play, but they the coaches talk dramatically different 1259 01:05:47,280 --> 01:05:49,720 Speaker 2: like Mario looks like he wants to get in at 1260 01:05:49,760 --> 01:05:51,800 Speaker 2: this fight, where Signetti looks like he wants to get 1261 01:05:51,840 --> 01:05:52,680 Speaker 2: into a chess match. 1262 01:05:53,200 --> 01:05:56,800 Speaker 1: Yep. So now it's very well put so that might 1263 01:05:56,880 --> 01:05:58,280 Speaker 1: end up being the difference. 1264 01:05:58,280 --> 01:06:00,800 Speaker 2: But in fairness, Mario does have a Island team too, 1265 01:06:00,880 --> 01:06:03,480 Speaker 2: so it's like they can physically hang like they're not 1266 01:06:03,520 --> 01:06:05,720 Speaker 2: going to be shoved around. They're like Ohio State, right 1267 01:06:05,760 --> 01:06:07,800 Speaker 2: where physically they're not going to be intimidated by and 1268 01:06:07,800 --> 01:06:10,200 Speaker 2: get shoved around by Indiana like Bam and Oregon did. 1269 01:06:10,680 --> 01:06:12,360 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think this game is gonna play out more 1270 01:06:12,400 --> 01:06:16,200 Speaker 1: like Ohia. It's gonna play out similar to Ohio State Indiana. 1271 01:06:16,280 --> 01:06:17,960 Speaker 2: Then Miami would have a chance if they don't have 1272 01:06:18,000 --> 01:06:19,160 Speaker 2: like ten penalties right. 1273 01:06:19,120 --> 01:06:23,880 Speaker 1: Yes, or Beck doesn't turn it over, like they have 1274 01:06:23,920 --> 01:06:26,800 Speaker 1: to play clean to win this game, which you can't have, 1275 01:06:27,400 --> 01:06:29,960 Speaker 1: you know, one hundred and eight penalty yards and you 1276 01:06:30,000 --> 01:06:32,480 Speaker 1: can't turn the ball over. So I think they're going 1277 01:06:32,520 --> 01:06:34,360 Speaker 1: to be cautious as long as like this game is 1278 01:06:34,400 --> 01:06:40,280 Speaker 1: close playfield position, I think both defenses will give each 1279 01:06:40,280 --> 01:06:44,880 Speaker 1: opposing offense some issues. Now, Indiana seems they seemingly never 1280 01:06:44,960 --> 01:06:48,120 Speaker 1: drop a contested catch. I mean Sarad is incredible. This 1281 01:06:48,200 --> 01:06:51,360 Speaker 1: Becker kid has really come on as a fantask threat, 1282 01:06:51,760 --> 01:06:56,919 Speaker 1: which is added another layer to their offense. But yeah, 1283 01:06:56,960 --> 01:07:00,680 Speaker 1: I played some under. I played some Mendoza under rushing 1284 01:07:00,760 --> 01:07:04,680 Speaker 1: yards like eighteen and a half. The you'll try to 1285 01:07:04,720 --> 01:07:10,800 Speaker 1: scramble some, but I mean the Miami defense has allowed 1286 01:07:11,800 --> 01:07:15,880 Speaker 1: They played fourteen games against FBS opponents. Opposing quarterbacks have 1287 01:07:16,000 --> 01:07:20,320 Speaker 1: ran it one hundred and twenty seven times for fourteen yards, 1288 01:07:20,760 --> 01:07:23,840 Speaker 1: so that obviously includes sacks. But they've given up fourteen 1289 01:07:23,960 --> 01:07:27,320 Speaker 1: total rushing yards. And they played you know, Watson and Drones. 1290 01:07:27,360 --> 01:07:30,360 Speaker 1: At Votec. They played Byron Brown, who had a thousand 1291 01:07:30,400 --> 01:07:35,080 Speaker 1: yards rushing for USF. They played the Syracuse guys who 1292 01:07:35,120 --> 01:07:40,000 Speaker 1: could run. They played Costianos of Florida State. They played Chamblis. 1293 01:07:40,040 --> 01:07:42,600 Speaker 1: I mean Chamblas had seven yards rushing. They played a 1294 01:07:42,640 --> 01:07:48,080 Speaker 1: ton of Marcel Reid, so they played a ton of 1295 01:07:48,080 --> 01:07:50,760 Speaker 1: mobile quarterbacks. They give up fourteen yards. That includes a 1296 01:07:50,760 --> 01:07:56,000 Speaker 1: ton of sacks. Now Mendoza had but he averaged like 1297 01:07:58,960 --> 01:08:00,720 Speaker 1: eight do you average like eighteen and a half per game, 1298 01:08:00,720 --> 01:08:03,560 Speaker 1: which is where this line is set. But he was 1299 01:08:03,600 --> 01:08:08,200 Speaker 1: only sacked like one plus one point four times, per game. 1300 01:08:09,280 --> 01:08:10,800 Speaker 1: I think that could go up to like three or 1301 01:08:10,840 --> 01:08:13,280 Speaker 1: four and you could get some major negative sack yard. 1302 01:08:13,920 --> 01:08:16,400 Speaker 1: I mean he went up against Wisconsin, he had six 1303 01:08:16,479 --> 01:08:19,519 Speaker 1: rushes for negative twenty four yards. He was sacked five times. 1304 01:08:19,800 --> 01:08:22,320 Speaker 1: Against Ohio State, he was sacked three times, ended with 1305 01:08:22,400 --> 01:08:28,720 Speaker 1: negative three rushing yards. So yeah, I played some under 1306 01:08:28,800 --> 01:08:31,960 Speaker 1: rushing yards there surat anytime touchdown if you're looking for 1307 01:08:32,000 --> 01:08:33,479 Speaker 1: like a part of any time, probably pace. But that's 1308 01:08:33,479 --> 01:08:36,000 Speaker 1: around even money. He got scores everything every week. I 1309 01:08:36,000 --> 01:08:38,080 Speaker 1: think he scored like ten weeks in a row. Hit 1310 01:08:38,120 --> 01:08:41,679 Speaker 1: that back shoulder. It's like a cheat code. But yeah, 1311 01:08:41,720 --> 01:08:44,600 Speaker 1: I'm struggling what to do with home field. So but 1312 01:08:45,120 --> 01:08:48,679 Speaker 1: I think I'm close to the line. I won't bet Miami. 1313 01:08:49,200 --> 01:08:51,720 Speaker 1: They're like, I wouldn't even bet Miami if it's ten. 1314 01:08:52,800 --> 01:08:54,720 Speaker 1: I would need more than ten because I've just seen 1315 01:08:54,800 --> 01:08:58,120 Speaker 1: I've seen Indiana and they just feel to me like 1316 01:08:58,160 --> 01:09:00,360 Speaker 1: a team that you don't want to get in front of. 1317 01:09:00,800 --> 01:09:02,519 Speaker 1: So even if Miami went, I won't have any regret 1318 01:09:02,600 --> 01:09:05,400 Speaker 1: if Miami covers or were wins that I didn't fade Indiana. 1319 01:09:07,280 --> 01:09:09,879 Speaker 1: So yeah, if you made me better, I bet Indiana. 1320 01:09:11,000 --> 01:09:12,840 Speaker 1: But I do like the under I like it. 1321 01:09:13,000 --> 01:09:16,240 Speaker 2: I think I'm gonna take Indiana. Okay, sucky. I got 1322 01:09:16,280 --> 01:09:18,240 Speaker 2: my wife screaming. I mean I got to help get 1323 01:09:18,280 --> 01:09:20,920 Speaker 2: ready for this, uh, this endeavor we're about to take 1324 01:09:20,920 --> 01:09:23,840 Speaker 2: off on. So I'll be joining you soon into the 1325 01:09:24,120 --> 01:09:26,920 Speaker 2: fatherhood category. And enjoy the rest of the week and 1326 01:09:27,640 --> 01:09:29,240 Speaker 2: enjoy the games and I will talk to you soon. 1327 01:09:29,600 --> 01:09:35,080 Speaker 1: Yeah, good luck which you all good health, And enjoy 1328 01:09:35,320 --> 01:09:37,760 Speaker 1: the NFL playoffs from the hospital speed. It feels like 1329 01:09:37,760 --> 01:09:43,000 Speaker 1: like like a camp. Yeah, so enjoy it, but I 1330 01:09:43,000 --> 01:09:46,519 Speaker 1: hope everything goes well. And talk to you next week. Brother. 1331 01:09:46,680 --> 01:09:47,600 Speaker 2: I appreciate it. See it 1332 01:09:51,080 --> 01:09:51,719 Speaker 1: The volume