1 00:00:02,520 --> 00:00:10,119 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the 2 00:00:10,119 --> 00:00:13,880 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at 3 00:00:13,920 --> 00:00:17,119 Speaker 1: noon and five pm Eastern on Apple Coarclay and Android 4 00:00:17,160 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 1: Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever 5 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:25,040 Speaker 1: you get your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:25,400 --> 00:00:27,760 Speaker 2: Welcome to the Tuesday edition of Balance of Power here 7 00:00:27,800 --> 00:00:30,680 Speaker 2: on Bloomberg Radio Satellite radio channel one twenty one in 8 00:00:30,760 --> 00:00:33,000 Speaker 2: on YouTube, where you can dial us up right now 9 00:00:33,080 --> 00:00:35,600 Speaker 2: if you haven't already searched Bloomberg Business News Live. Just 10 00:00:35,680 --> 00:00:38,280 Speaker 2: let it roll all day while you're working or whatever 11 00:00:38,320 --> 00:00:42,800 Speaker 2: you're doing. Here. It's the full Bloomberg Radio experience with 12 00:00:42,960 --> 00:00:45,519 Speaker 2: visuals if you dare throughout the day. And we've got 13 00:00:45,520 --> 00:00:48,680 Speaker 2: a lot to cover here as we mark one hundred days. 14 00:00:48,720 --> 00:00:51,080 Speaker 2: This is all anybody's talking about, beyond, of course, the 15 00:00:51,120 --> 00:00:55,120 Speaker 2: markets and the economic data that are inextricably tied to 16 00:00:55,160 --> 00:00:57,760 Speaker 2: the Trump administration. It's going to play out like this. 17 00:00:57,840 --> 00:01:00,000 Speaker 2: He leaves the bubble pretty soon, actually, around two o'clock 18 00:01:00,160 --> 00:01:02,400 Speaker 2: in the afternoon. We'll head over to Joint Base Andrews, 19 00:01:02,760 --> 00:01:05,640 Speaker 2: and then it's off to the Midwest to the Promised Land. 20 00:01:05,680 --> 00:01:08,400 Speaker 2: Of Michigan, and he's not going straight to the big rally. 21 00:01:08,400 --> 00:01:10,360 Speaker 2: We're going to get a big campaign style rally tonight. 22 00:01:10,400 --> 00:01:12,200 Speaker 2: You know, we're all staying up late for this special 23 00:01:12,240 --> 00:01:16,240 Speaker 2: coverage right here on Bloomberg. But he's starting at Selfridge 24 00:01:16,280 --> 00:01:18,760 Speaker 2: Air National Guard Base. If you were with us yesterday, 25 00:01:18,920 --> 00:01:21,720 Speaker 2: you might have heard Congressman Bill Ia Singa talking about 26 00:01:21,720 --> 00:01:23,920 Speaker 2: that there's been an ask in Michigan for more jets. 27 00:01:23,959 --> 00:01:26,080 Speaker 2: That's why the governor was in the Oval Office a 28 00:01:26,120 --> 00:01:28,240 Speaker 2: couple of weeks ago updated jets. They're going to be 29 00:01:28,240 --> 00:01:30,600 Speaker 2: talking likely about a major investment at Selfridge, and then 30 00:01:30,640 --> 00:01:34,480 Speaker 2: it's on to the grand event in McCombe County at 31 00:01:34,520 --> 00:01:39,000 Speaker 2: the Community College Sports Expo Center. They tell us six 32 00:01:39,040 --> 00:01:42,480 Speaker 2: o'clock PM what they're billing as the one hundredth day 33 00:01:42,480 --> 00:01:46,080 Speaker 2: in office achievement speech. Are we going to get the 34 00:01:46,080 --> 00:01:48,120 Speaker 2: big one? We get like a kid rock concert here? 35 00:01:48,160 --> 00:01:49,880 Speaker 2: What's going to be involved. I'm waiting to hear more 36 00:01:49,880 --> 00:01:51,800 Speaker 2: about the choreography because it's going to feel a lot 37 00:01:51,800 --> 00:01:53,920 Speaker 2: like the campaign. Maybe we'll get a flyover since he's 38 00:01:54,640 --> 00:01:57,400 Speaker 2: actually the president now with of course, a lot of 39 00:01:57,400 --> 00:02:02,360 Speaker 2: the conversation around promise is made promises kept right, just 40 00:02:02,560 --> 00:02:07,400 Speaker 2: billed as an achievement speech. Of course, one of the 41 00:02:07,440 --> 00:02:11,280 Speaker 2: big promises was tariffs. Another promise was lower prices. And 42 00:02:11,320 --> 00:02:13,679 Speaker 2: they keep bumping into each other. We'll talk about it 43 00:02:13,720 --> 00:02:17,120 Speaker 2: every day around here. They even pulled out the Treasury 44 00:02:17,120 --> 00:02:19,359 Speaker 2: Secretary for an early morning briefing. By the way, they've 45 00:02:19,360 --> 00:02:22,760 Speaker 2: done this twice, you're allowed to chuckle at White House 46 00:02:22,760 --> 00:02:25,040 Speaker 2: correspondence who have to get up extra early now every 47 00:02:25,040 --> 00:02:28,480 Speaker 2: morning for the eight thirty am Press briefing. Used to 48 00:02:28,480 --> 00:02:31,360 Speaker 2: be around two in the afternoon. Special guest today the 49 00:02:31,360 --> 00:02:34,880 Speaker 2: Treasury Secretary there to answer the big questions on tariffs. 50 00:02:35,280 --> 00:02:38,239 Speaker 2: When will the trade deals emerge? But more specifically, listen 51 00:02:38,320 --> 00:02:41,800 Speaker 2: to this exchange. Are we actually talking to China? Because 52 00:02:41,840 --> 00:02:43,639 Speaker 2: we keep hearing from the White House that we are. 53 00:02:43,800 --> 00:02:46,960 Speaker 2: Donald Trump even said on the daily Beijing says, we've 54 00:02:47,000 --> 00:02:51,040 Speaker 2: never engaged the White House on tariffs. Here's the latest 55 00:02:51,080 --> 00:02:51,760 Speaker 2: from this morning. 56 00:02:52,960 --> 00:02:56,520 Speaker 3: I'm not going to get into the nitty gritty again 57 00:02:56,560 --> 00:03:00,800 Speaker 3: of who's talking to whom, but as I said, I 58 00:03:00,880 --> 00:03:04,799 Speaker 3: believe for the Chinese these terrifts are unsustainable. 59 00:03:05,000 --> 00:03:07,400 Speaker 4: Very quickly two days ago, un you didn't know if 60 00:03:07,440 --> 00:03:09,600 Speaker 4: President Trump had spoken to sheeting king. 61 00:03:10,000 --> 00:03:12,920 Speaker 5: Do you know now Again, I would say Caroline and 62 00:03:12,960 --> 00:03:14,639 Speaker 5: I have a lot of jobs around the White House, 63 00:03:14,760 --> 00:03:16,680 Speaker 5: running the switchboard in one of them. 64 00:03:17,560 --> 00:03:20,720 Speaker 2: Running the switchboard ain't one of them. So we still 65 00:03:20,760 --> 00:03:23,080 Speaker 2: have no idea who's on the phone with whom, or 66 00:03:23,120 --> 00:03:26,360 Speaker 2: anyone for that matter. With the idea of maybe some 67 00:03:26,560 --> 00:03:31,880 Speaker 2: other countries arriving at deals first, Japan, maybe Indio would 68 00:03:31,919 --> 00:03:34,920 Speaker 2: be the big one. But as we wait, it's not 69 00:03:35,080 --> 00:03:39,440 Speaker 2: helping with confidence on the corporate level or on the 70 00:03:39,440 --> 00:03:42,160 Speaker 2: consumer level. As we bump into the headline this morning, 71 00:03:42,840 --> 00:03:45,840 Speaker 2: consumer confidence slumps to an almost five year low. We 72 00:03:45,880 --> 00:03:48,720 Speaker 2: can talk about abstract politics all day long, but if 73 00:03:48,760 --> 00:03:52,640 Speaker 2: your job is to be Bloomberg Economics editor like Molly Smith, 74 00:03:52,680 --> 00:03:56,600 Speaker 2: you have to deal with fact data. You know, Bloomberg. 75 00:03:57,160 --> 00:04:01,480 Speaker 2: She's with us right now, having survived another thirty am call, 76 00:04:01,600 --> 00:04:03,840 Speaker 2: not for a briefing, but for a data dump. You 77 00:04:03,840 --> 00:04:06,000 Speaker 2: have no mercy on these White House correspondents. Have to 78 00:04:06,000 --> 00:04:07,360 Speaker 2: be in the briefing room at eight thirty. You do 79 00:04:07,360 --> 00:04:07,800 Speaker 2: it every day. 80 00:04:07,880 --> 00:04:09,440 Speaker 6: We've got other things to do. If could do this 81 00:04:09,480 --> 00:04:12,280 Speaker 6: every day. Confidence actually dropped at ten, so that was 82 00:04:12,280 --> 00:04:12,839 Speaker 6: a little later. 83 00:04:12,960 --> 00:04:13,360 Speaker 2: That's true. 84 00:04:13,560 --> 00:04:15,680 Speaker 7: We had something else at eight thirty you did. 85 00:04:15,840 --> 00:04:18,760 Speaker 2: I know you're an early bird here, and I want 86 00:04:18,800 --> 00:04:21,680 Speaker 2: to start on confidence here, because if you look back 87 00:04:21,760 --> 00:04:24,839 Speaker 2: five years, what was that May of twenty twenty? 88 00:04:25,160 --> 00:04:25,680 Speaker 7: What was time? 89 00:04:25,800 --> 00:04:26,880 Speaker 2: What was going on right around that? 90 00:04:26,960 --> 00:04:27,520 Speaker 7: Really dark? 91 00:04:27,600 --> 00:04:30,240 Speaker 2: So we just went back to the pandemic in terms 92 00:04:30,240 --> 00:04:30,839 Speaker 2: of confidence. 93 00:04:30,920 --> 00:04:32,320 Speaker 7: That's where the levels are right now. 94 00:04:32,360 --> 00:04:35,080 Speaker 6: And this was the fifth straight monthly decline and that's 95 00:04:35,120 --> 00:04:38,200 Speaker 6: the longest stretch since two thousand and eight, another time 96 00:04:38,200 --> 00:04:40,760 Speaker 6: period that probably rings boy oh bothe. 97 00:04:41,040 --> 00:04:44,120 Speaker 2: These superlatives are stacking up. So what are consumers saying 98 00:04:44,240 --> 00:04:44,960 Speaker 2: in this survey? 99 00:04:45,320 --> 00:04:48,599 Speaker 6: It's, you know, really just a continuation of this tariff 100 00:04:48,640 --> 00:04:51,560 Speaker 6: induced anxiety about how this is going to be raising 101 00:04:51,640 --> 00:04:55,640 Speaker 6: prices on a number of consumer goods, How prospects for 102 00:04:55,720 --> 00:04:58,960 Speaker 6: what somebody anticipates their financial situation is going to look 103 00:04:59,000 --> 00:05:04,919 Speaker 6: like or deteriorate markedly anticipated odds of a recession, wage prospects, 104 00:05:05,000 --> 00:05:07,320 Speaker 6: just all of these things about how secure you feel 105 00:05:07,360 --> 00:05:11,040 Speaker 6: in your financial situation have just really weakened dramatically. 106 00:05:11,120 --> 00:05:14,640 Speaker 2: We talk a lot about soft data versus hard data. 107 00:05:14,720 --> 00:05:18,159 Speaker 2: The data are supposed to capture what consumers are doing. 108 00:05:18,760 --> 00:05:20,800 Speaker 2: We kind of look as we're blanks at Bloomberg, we 109 00:05:20,839 --> 00:05:23,039 Speaker 2: wonder we kind of assume everyone's walking around looking at 110 00:05:23,120 --> 00:05:25,760 Speaker 2: GDP and consumers saying, well, geez, maybe I shouldn't buy this. 111 00:05:26,240 --> 00:05:28,240 Speaker 2: But it's sort of a chicken and egg thing here, right. 112 00:05:28,279 --> 00:05:30,839 Speaker 2: Where is the consumer when it comes to talk of 113 00:05:30,880 --> 00:05:33,359 Speaker 2: a recession? Is is that kitchen table talk or is 114 00:05:33,360 --> 00:05:34,400 Speaker 2: that for people like us? 115 00:05:34,640 --> 00:05:34,719 Speaker 8: No? 116 00:05:34,839 --> 00:05:37,719 Speaker 6: I think this is very real, and that's where people 117 00:05:37,720 --> 00:05:40,880 Speaker 6: talk about this so called vibe session, in this idea 118 00:05:40,960 --> 00:05:43,640 Speaker 6: of the soft data being just so much worse than 119 00:05:43,640 --> 00:05:46,080 Speaker 6: what the hard data indicates. And that's why when we 120 00:05:46,120 --> 00:05:48,440 Speaker 6: do actually get the first look at GDP tomorrow, it's 121 00:05:48,440 --> 00:05:50,800 Speaker 6: going to be so interesting to see how much of 122 00:05:50,800 --> 00:05:52,160 Speaker 6: this actually comes through. 123 00:05:51,960 --> 00:05:52,720 Speaker 7: In the hard data. 124 00:05:52,920 --> 00:05:56,600 Speaker 6: Because GDP, some economists are I think the media in 125 00:05:56,720 --> 00:05:58,599 Speaker 6: estment right now is penciling in what would be a 126 00:05:58,760 --> 00:06:02,400 Speaker 6: very very small increase, would be a huge slowdown from 127 00:06:02,440 --> 00:06:05,040 Speaker 6: the previous quarter, and a lot of that coming from 128 00:06:05,160 --> 00:06:08,039 Speaker 6: one a big drop off in consumer spending, and the 129 00:06:08,080 --> 00:06:11,080 Speaker 6: bigger one is trade. And all of this so far 130 00:06:11,200 --> 00:06:14,520 Speaker 6: being that there has been so much import activity to 131 00:06:14,560 --> 00:06:16,720 Speaker 6: get ahead of these tariffs, and we saw. 132 00:06:16,480 --> 00:06:18,440 Speaker 7: That with the eight thirty data this morning. 133 00:06:18,480 --> 00:06:21,240 Speaker 6: That was the Advanced Trades Report showing that the goods 134 00:06:21,279 --> 00:06:24,760 Speaker 6: deficit widened to another record in March. So the import 135 00:06:24,760 --> 00:06:28,200 Speaker 6: activity has just been rampant and that's really going to 136 00:06:28,200 --> 00:06:30,200 Speaker 6: just subtract the most from GDP tomorrow. 137 00:06:30,200 --> 00:06:32,440 Speaker 2: We're seeing this as well in the form of fewer 138 00:06:32,480 --> 00:06:36,840 Speaker 2: container ships off the port of la Right, So what 139 00:06:36,920 --> 00:06:39,440 Speaker 2: are we in for tomorrow when GDP comes out? This 140 00:06:39,480 --> 00:06:42,120 Speaker 2: will be our broadest measure we've had, yeah, and there 141 00:06:42,640 --> 00:06:45,240 Speaker 2: since it's mattered since Liberation Day exactly. 142 00:06:45,279 --> 00:06:48,280 Speaker 7: So this is for the government's initial estimate of. 143 00:06:48,240 --> 00:06:51,560 Speaker 6: First quarter GDP, and there are a lot of economists 144 00:06:51,560 --> 00:06:54,159 Speaker 6: who are penciling into contraction. You know, we haven't had 145 00:06:54,200 --> 00:06:59,320 Speaker 6: that since twenty twenty two, and that would be really dramatic. Again, 146 00:06:59,360 --> 00:07:02,440 Speaker 6: a lot of it from the trade side. So if 147 00:07:02,480 --> 00:07:05,000 Speaker 6: you are of the camp that maybe imports are going 148 00:07:05,040 --> 00:07:08,400 Speaker 6: to normalize after this big rush in the first quarter 149 00:07:08,440 --> 00:07:10,480 Speaker 6: to get ahead of tariffs, then you might be a 150 00:07:10,560 --> 00:07:12,960 Speaker 6: little bit more sanguine on the outlook for the current 151 00:07:13,040 --> 00:07:13,600 Speaker 6: quarter for. 152 00:07:13,640 --> 00:07:14,920 Speaker 7: Trade and GDP. 153 00:07:15,200 --> 00:07:17,760 Speaker 6: But it's really hard to tell right now because there's 154 00:07:17,760 --> 00:07:19,520 Speaker 6: still so much of this up in the air. As 155 00:07:19,560 --> 00:07:21,720 Speaker 6: you just heard, Beson can even tell us who's talking 156 00:07:21,760 --> 00:07:24,600 Speaker 6: to who right now? So who the heck knows if 157 00:07:24,600 --> 00:07:27,360 Speaker 6: there's still going to be more of this front running 158 00:07:27,400 --> 00:07:29,880 Speaker 6: activity until we really know where the tariff rates are 159 00:07:29,880 --> 00:07:30,480 Speaker 6: going to settle. 160 00:07:30,560 --> 00:07:33,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, So the idea of front running and the pull 161 00:07:33,400 --> 00:07:37,200 Speaker 2: forward that we're seeing right now in anticipation of tariffs, 162 00:07:37,240 --> 00:07:40,520 Speaker 2: does that guarantee a downturn in the back half of 163 00:07:40,520 --> 00:07:42,720 Speaker 2: the year. I don't know if I was saying that. 164 00:07:42,920 --> 00:07:45,480 Speaker 6: I mean, I don't know if I would say guarantee 165 00:07:45,520 --> 00:07:48,480 Speaker 6: a downturn. I think what the biggest thing for our 166 00:07:48,560 --> 00:07:52,680 Speaker 6: economy is consumer spending, and that's what drives our economic 167 00:07:52,720 --> 00:07:55,800 Speaker 6: activity more so than what trade does. And I think 168 00:07:55,840 --> 00:07:57,960 Speaker 6: a lot of economists would also tell you, in looking 169 00:07:58,000 --> 00:08:01,040 Speaker 6: at how to determine when a recess is actually happening, 170 00:08:01,520 --> 00:08:03,040 Speaker 6: you have to look at the consumer, and you have 171 00:08:03,080 --> 00:08:06,000 Speaker 6: to look at the job market. And trade is I 172 00:08:06,040 --> 00:08:08,720 Speaker 6: guess it's more of an exogenous factor compared to those others. 173 00:08:08,720 --> 00:08:10,480 Speaker 2: Okay, well, we're about to look at the job market 174 00:08:10,560 --> 00:08:12,400 Speaker 2: on Friday. This is the big one that we have coming. 175 00:08:12,840 --> 00:08:15,080 Speaker 2: I keep asking you every month, when do the federal 176 00:08:15,120 --> 00:08:17,880 Speaker 2: worker layoffs start showing up? What are you expecting on Friday? 177 00:08:18,120 --> 00:08:20,720 Speaker 6: So we're I think, I mean, you know, we keep 178 00:08:20,760 --> 00:08:22,600 Speaker 6: thinking that like we're going to keep getting these like 179 00:08:22,680 --> 00:08:25,840 Speaker 6: big you know, more of a moderation in job growth, which. 180 00:08:26,000 --> 00:08:27,280 Speaker 7: Has generally been the theme. 181 00:08:27,320 --> 00:08:29,640 Speaker 6: I mean, except for the fact that the March payrolls 182 00:08:29,640 --> 00:08:32,559 Speaker 6: report was such a blowout in a good way. You 183 00:08:32,600 --> 00:08:35,200 Speaker 6: know that there was such strong job growth, but it 184 00:08:35,240 --> 00:08:37,360 Speaker 6: looks like that it's going to that level would drop off. 185 00:08:37,240 --> 00:08:40,280 Speaker 7: Pretty mysterially in April this month. I don't know if 186 00:08:40,280 --> 00:08:42,319 Speaker 7: I would. I mean, I think that implies that it's 187 00:08:42,440 --> 00:08:43,960 Speaker 7: really like bad. 188 00:08:44,440 --> 00:08:46,960 Speaker 6: But like the median estimate right now for payrolls growth 189 00:08:47,040 --> 00:08:49,640 Speaker 6: is somewhere in like the one hundred and fifteen thousand area. 190 00:08:50,000 --> 00:08:51,760 Speaker 7: That's not bad. That's not a bad number. 191 00:08:51,760 --> 00:08:54,040 Speaker 6: And the unemployment rates still holding a four point two 192 00:08:54,040 --> 00:08:58,560 Speaker 6: percent also not that. But there's I mean, I always 193 00:08:58,600 --> 00:09:00,600 Speaker 6: like to look at the range of est myths for 194 00:09:00,640 --> 00:09:01,880 Speaker 6: the payrolls report and. 195 00:09:01,800 --> 00:09:03,319 Speaker 7: How wide the band can be. 196 00:09:03,400 --> 00:09:05,800 Speaker 6: I mean, sometimes we're looking at a span of like 197 00:09:06,000 --> 00:09:08,080 Speaker 6: one hundred and fifty thousand from the high to the low, 198 00:09:08,720 --> 00:09:11,960 Speaker 6: So that median, of course is who knows where the 199 00:09:12,000 --> 00:09:13,120 Speaker 6: actual number will lie. 200 00:09:13,160 --> 00:09:14,560 Speaker 2: It's interesting what you said to us, though, is we 201 00:09:14,600 --> 00:09:17,200 Speaker 2: get a contraction in GDP tomorrow, first time since the 202 00:09:17,280 --> 00:09:20,600 Speaker 2: non recession, remember was it was two quarters, but it 203 00:09:20,600 --> 00:09:22,800 Speaker 2: wasn't a recession from the Biden administration. A lot of 204 00:09:22,800 --> 00:09:25,679 Speaker 2: people think this is the beginning of one. Is when 205 00:09:25,679 --> 00:09:28,480 Speaker 2: does that become consensus or that's not a baseline expectation 206 00:09:28,600 --> 00:09:29,200 Speaker 2: right now, is it? 207 00:09:29,440 --> 00:09:32,319 Speaker 6: I mean, it's I think right now in more Oh 208 00:09:32,320 --> 00:09:33,960 Speaker 6: that we're in one now. Yeah, I don't know if 209 00:09:33,960 --> 00:09:36,000 Speaker 6: I would say that. No, I think because again, like 210 00:09:36,400 --> 00:09:38,440 Speaker 6: there's the idea of what you kind of just alluded 211 00:09:38,480 --> 00:09:41,040 Speaker 6: to what we'd call a technical recession of these back 212 00:09:41,040 --> 00:09:44,280 Speaker 6: to back quarters of negative GDP, which could very well 213 00:09:44,320 --> 00:09:46,600 Speaker 6: be a trade story. But when you look at actual 214 00:09:46,640 --> 00:09:50,000 Speaker 6: recession jobs, spending, that's not really that pass well. 215 00:09:50,000 --> 00:09:51,679 Speaker 2: And I learned a lot about that a couple of 216 00:09:51,760 --> 00:09:54,320 Speaker 2: years ago when when we met the technical definition and 217 00:09:54,360 --> 00:09:56,640 Speaker 2: Molly Smith taught me otherwise, it takes a lot more 218 00:09:56,840 --> 00:09:59,120 Speaker 2: to call it a recession. Great to have you in Washington, 219 00:09:59,240 --> 00:10:02,679 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Imix editor Molly Smith with us on the fastest 220 00:10:02,679 --> 00:10:05,880 Speaker 2: show in politics. Stay here live from Washington only on Bloomberg. 221 00:10:08,040 --> 00:10:11,520 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 222 00:10:11,600 --> 00:10:14,640 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on 223 00:10:14,760 --> 00:10:18,000 Speaker 1: Apple Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. 224 00:10:18,040 --> 00:10:21,040 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 225 00:10:21,080 --> 00:10:26,280 Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa, Play Bloomberg eleven thirty. 226 00:10:26,960 --> 00:10:30,080 Speaker 2: I'm Jill Matthew and Washington, where we don't have a subway, 227 00:10:30,120 --> 00:10:33,880 Speaker 2: we have a metro. Sometimes it works much like the 228 00:10:33,920 --> 00:10:37,480 Speaker 2: apparatus on both ends of Pennsylvania Avenue. We're going to 229 00:10:37,520 --> 00:10:40,000 Speaker 2: be talking more about reconciliation, the drive to mark up 230 00:10:40,000 --> 00:10:42,080 Speaker 2: some bills this week, and of course what's happening on 231 00:10:42,120 --> 00:10:45,800 Speaker 2: the other end. That's the big story today. One hundred days. 232 00:10:46,679 --> 00:10:50,600 Speaker 2: How do you feel having experienced it? As we turn 233 00:10:50,720 --> 00:10:56,320 Speaker 2: to the anatomy of a retraction? This has been an 234 00:10:56,320 --> 00:10:59,680 Speaker 2: interesting element today, having started at eight thirty this morning 235 00:11:00,000 --> 00:11:02,200 Speaker 2: with another early morning call in the White House briefing 236 00:11:02,280 --> 00:11:06,240 Speaker 2: room the Press Secretary and the Treasury Secretary today talking 237 00:11:06,280 --> 00:11:09,160 Speaker 2: about trade tariffs, you know, the economic agenda on one 238 00:11:09,200 --> 00:11:10,800 Speaker 2: hundred days. This is a big part of what we're 239 00:11:10,800 --> 00:11:13,400 Speaker 2: going to hear about this evening from President Trump. But 240 00:11:13,480 --> 00:11:17,280 Speaker 2: this whole idea of Amazon. You heard about this by now, 241 00:11:17,320 --> 00:11:19,720 Speaker 2: I'm sure listing tariff prices. You know, when you go 242 00:11:19,760 --> 00:11:22,360 Speaker 2: to the restaurant, they've got the calorie count on the menu, 243 00:11:22,679 --> 00:11:25,440 Speaker 2: makes you not want to buy anything there order that 244 00:11:25,559 --> 00:11:28,640 Speaker 2: it's a thousand calories. Amazon had an idea to break 245 00:11:28,640 --> 00:11:31,280 Speaker 2: it out in terms of tariffs. How come my new 246 00:11:31,320 --> 00:11:33,400 Speaker 2: fruit of the loom are so expensive? You ask, and 247 00:11:33,400 --> 00:11:35,640 Speaker 2: there'd be a little item on there right like a 248 00:11:35,679 --> 00:11:39,840 Speaker 2: service charge, and it would break out. The tariffs didn't 249 00:11:39,840 --> 00:11:42,400 Speaker 2: play well at the White House. We all woke up 250 00:11:42,440 --> 00:11:45,520 Speaker 2: to this story today. The Amazon was considering this. The 251 00:11:45,520 --> 00:11:48,040 Speaker 2: Press Secretary Caroline Levitt was asked about it. Here's what 252 00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:48,480 Speaker 2: she said. 253 00:11:49,200 --> 00:11:51,000 Speaker 9: I just got off the phone with the President about 254 00:11:51,040 --> 00:11:56,640 Speaker 9: Amazon's announcement. This is a hostile and political act by Amazon. 255 00:11:56,760 --> 00:11:59,840 Speaker 9: It's another reason why we are on shoring critical supply 256 00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:02,360 Speaker 9: into here at home to shore up our own critical 257 00:12:02,400 --> 00:12:05,120 Speaker 9: supply chain and boost our own manufacturing. 258 00:12:06,760 --> 00:12:11,839 Speaker 2: Yikes called it a hostel and political act by Amazon. 259 00:12:12,200 --> 00:12:16,720 Speaker 2: Fast forward to noon statement from the company that was 260 00:12:16,880 --> 00:12:20,440 Speaker 2: never under consideration. Amazon says the team that runs our 261 00:12:20,520 --> 00:12:23,480 Speaker 2: ultra low cost Amazon Haul store considered the idea of 262 00:12:23,520 --> 00:12:27,360 Speaker 2: listing import charges, never approved and was never going to happen. 263 00:12:27,400 --> 00:12:30,040 Speaker 2: If you're with us on YouTube. You see the response 264 00:12:30,760 --> 00:12:34,720 Speaker 2: rapid response from Amazon. The stock's been lower. And it's 265 00:12:34,760 --> 00:12:38,720 Speaker 2: where we start our conversation with a noted Republican strategist 266 00:12:38,800 --> 00:12:41,880 Speaker 2: who's been through the ringer in multiple campaigns, survived the 267 00:12:41,920 --> 00:12:44,840 Speaker 2: first Trump administration, and is with us right now at 268 00:12:44,880 --> 00:12:48,160 Speaker 2: the desk. Alex Conant, partner at Firehouse Strategies, was at 269 00:12:48,160 --> 00:12:50,719 Speaker 2: one time, in a different life two thousand and eight 270 00:12:51,040 --> 00:12:54,839 Speaker 2: a spokesman for the Republican National Committee, also helped to 271 00:12:54,920 --> 00:12:57,440 Speaker 2: run Marco Rubio's presidential campaign. It's great to see you. 272 00:12:57,440 --> 00:13:00,600 Speaker 2: Thank you for coming back on Bloomberg. So, like yourself, 273 00:13:00,600 --> 00:13:03,400 Speaker 2: working at Firehouse, gets a phone call from Amazon. It says, Alex, 274 00:13:03,440 --> 00:13:06,319 Speaker 2: we need help. What do we do here? A reversal 275 00:13:06,440 --> 00:13:08,400 Speaker 2: like this is remarkable and it tells us a lot 276 00:13:08,400 --> 00:13:11,280 Speaker 2: about the influence this administration has over corporate America. 277 00:13:11,640 --> 00:13:13,600 Speaker 10: I don't think any business wants to get a fight 278 00:13:13,679 --> 00:13:15,360 Speaker 10: with the White House right now, but I think every 279 00:13:15,400 --> 00:13:18,880 Speaker 10: business in America is also recognizes the reality that tariffs 280 00:13:18,880 --> 00:13:21,280 Speaker 10: are going to drive prices up. Sure, as we saw 281 00:13:21,280 --> 00:13:24,720 Speaker 10: in the last administration, inflation is the worst thing that 282 00:13:24,760 --> 00:13:30,280 Speaker 10: can happen to a president. It's something that voters see 283 00:13:30,320 --> 00:13:33,480 Speaker 10: everywhere every time they're going to fill the tank, buy eggs, 284 00:13:33,800 --> 00:13:36,560 Speaker 10: go online, to go shopping. When they see prices going up, 285 00:13:36,600 --> 00:13:40,680 Speaker 10: they get angry. And so look if Biden didn't survive it, 286 00:13:40,800 --> 00:13:43,320 Speaker 10: Carter din subriveet. I think Trump and the Republicans are 287 00:13:43,400 --> 00:13:46,160 Speaker 10: very sensitive that these tariffs are going to make prices 288 00:13:46,160 --> 00:13:48,760 Speaker 10: go up. That's why you saw That's why you saw 289 00:13:48,840 --> 00:13:51,720 Speaker 10: the White House so quick to attack this report. They 290 00:13:51,880 --> 00:13:54,480 Speaker 10: don't want they don't want prices to go up, but 291 00:13:54,520 --> 00:13:56,959 Speaker 10: they really don't want a Corporate America or any businesses 292 00:13:57,280 --> 00:14:00,960 Speaker 10: to tell to blame the president directly on why the 293 00:14:01,000 --> 00:14:01,800 Speaker 10: prices are going out. 294 00:14:01,920 --> 00:14:03,560 Speaker 2: Well, so here you are, it's one hundred days and 295 00:14:03,600 --> 00:14:06,600 Speaker 2: you need to write an achievement speech as it's being 296 00:14:06,600 --> 00:14:09,640 Speaker 2: called for President Trump. We just spoke to Molly Smith, 297 00:14:09,720 --> 00:14:12,080 Speaker 2: or economics editor, who's pointed a hard data. We're going 298 00:14:12,120 --> 00:14:15,160 Speaker 2: to see potentially a contraction in GDP tomorrow. You see 299 00:14:15,200 --> 00:14:17,920 Speaker 2: all the analysts notes that the odds are rising on 300 00:14:17,960 --> 00:14:21,000 Speaker 2: a recession. We're seeing some creep when it comes to inflation. 301 00:14:21,120 --> 00:14:24,200 Speaker 2: The bond market's been freaking out a little bit. How 302 00:14:24,280 --> 00:14:28,480 Speaker 2: do you craft a cohesive message that says we did 303 00:14:28,520 --> 00:14:30,560 Speaker 2: good in the last one hundred days on the economy. 304 00:14:30,640 --> 00:14:35,120 Speaker 10: Yeah, Look, I can't recall a situation where there's such 305 00:14:35,120 --> 00:14:38,200 Speaker 10: a disconnect between the mood inside the West Wing and 306 00:14:38,240 --> 00:14:41,840 Speaker 10: the mood on Main Street, on Wall Street with the 307 00:14:41,880 --> 00:14:43,560 Speaker 10: electorate as all. If you look at the polls that 308 00:14:43,600 --> 00:14:45,920 Speaker 10: came out over the weekend, they're really bad for the president, 309 00:14:46,120 --> 00:14:48,680 Speaker 10: and they're trending badly. And they're bad because people are 310 00:14:48,680 --> 00:14:50,760 Speaker 10: losing faith in his ability to handle economy, which has 311 00:14:50,800 --> 00:14:54,120 Speaker 10: always been the bad rock of Donald Trump's support since 312 00:14:54,200 --> 00:14:56,400 Speaker 10: twenty fifteen, since twenty sixteen. They might not like what 313 00:14:56,560 --> 00:14:58,760 Speaker 10: he tweets, they might not like some of his personal behavior, 314 00:14:58,960 --> 00:15:00,960 Speaker 10: but they trust them to handlely. If he loses that, 315 00:15:01,000 --> 00:15:02,640 Speaker 10: he's in real trouble. And that's what we're seeing in 316 00:15:02,680 --> 00:15:04,800 Speaker 10: the polls. But the mood inside the White Houses. Look, 317 00:15:04,840 --> 00:15:07,960 Speaker 10: one hundred days in, we're delivering on everything that we promised, 318 00:15:08,080 --> 00:15:09,640 Speaker 10: Everything that the President said he was going to. 319 00:15:09,600 --> 00:15:10,720 Speaker 2: Do, he's doing. 320 00:15:10,840 --> 00:15:13,880 Speaker 10: We got our our cabinet confirmed. You know, there's only 321 00:15:13,920 --> 00:15:15,960 Speaker 10: one nominee at Gates who didn't make it through. The 322 00:15:16,000 --> 00:15:18,560 Speaker 10: rest were confirmed, you know, for better or worse. Yeah, 323 00:15:19,040 --> 00:15:20,840 Speaker 10: you know, some of them have had some trouble since then. 324 00:15:21,200 --> 00:15:23,800 Speaker 10: But the executive orders, he said he's done more of 325 00:15:23,800 --> 00:15:26,720 Speaker 10: those than any president in history. His tax reform is 326 00:15:26,800 --> 00:15:30,280 Speaker 10: moving ahead in Congress. So I think that they feel very, 327 00:15:30,360 --> 00:15:33,760 Speaker 10: very good about the kind of the first one hundred days. 328 00:15:33,800 --> 00:15:35,440 Speaker 10: I think the President is going to be a really 329 00:15:35,440 --> 00:15:38,080 Speaker 10: good mood at his rally tonight. But I think the 330 00:15:38,080 --> 00:15:40,560 Speaker 10: fact that he's doing the rally tonight and he's doing 331 00:15:40,600 --> 00:15:42,480 Speaker 10: all the interviews around one hundred days is also a 332 00:15:42,520 --> 00:15:45,360 Speaker 10: reflection that there are voices inside the West Wing. While 333 00:15:45,360 --> 00:15:47,800 Speaker 10: the mood is good, they can see the storm crowd 334 00:15:47,840 --> 00:15:50,040 Speaker 10: clouds coming. They recognize he needs to get out there 335 00:15:50,080 --> 00:15:52,640 Speaker 10: more sell his agenda. But if the economy is in 336 00:15:52,680 --> 00:15:54,600 Speaker 10: the tank, you know, a couple of rallies isn't going 337 00:15:54,640 --> 00:15:55,000 Speaker 10: to fix it. 338 00:15:55,120 --> 00:15:57,600 Speaker 2: Sure, does you know? I can hear what he's going 339 00:15:57,640 --> 00:15:59,760 Speaker 2: to say on the border tonight, Right, we locked it down. 340 00:15:59,760 --> 00:16:02,600 Speaker 2: This is the most secure border in American history. When 341 00:16:02,640 --> 00:16:05,480 Speaker 2: it comes to the economy, though, is the message just 342 00:16:05,600 --> 00:16:07,680 Speaker 2: hang on? I mean, give me a little more time. 343 00:16:07,720 --> 00:16:09,000 Speaker 2: And how much time does he have? Look? 344 00:16:09,040 --> 00:16:14,200 Speaker 10: I think I mean still he's gonna blame bidenidenomy. Look, 345 00:16:14,240 --> 00:16:16,440 Speaker 10: I mean he's gonna say Look, you know the economy 346 00:16:16,480 --> 00:16:18,760 Speaker 10: was and the reason he won is because people didn't 347 00:16:18,800 --> 00:16:20,880 Speaker 10: like the economy, right, Like, people not liking the economy 348 00:16:20,960 --> 00:16:23,320 Speaker 10: is not a new phenomenon. People haven't liked the economy 349 00:16:23,360 --> 00:16:25,360 Speaker 10: is why he won. He's gonna blame Trump, he's gonna say, 350 00:16:25,520 --> 00:16:27,640 Speaker 10: or he's gonna blame Biden. He's gonna say, Look, I 351 00:16:27,680 --> 00:16:30,480 Speaker 10: inherited the worst economy ever. We're doing X, Y and 352 00:16:30,560 --> 00:16:32,240 Speaker 10: Z to fix it, including tariffs, and he's going to 353 00:16:32,320 --> 00:16:34,280 Speaker 10: try to sell his tariffs. But at the end of 354 00:16:34,320 --> 00:16:37,080 Speaker 10: the day, you know, inflation is not something you can 355 00:16:37,120 --> 00:16:39,080 Speaker 10: spin away. People are going to get upset about that 356 00:16:39,120 --> 00:16:42,520 Speaker 10: falling stock market, people get upset about that recessions, if 357 00:16:42,520 --> 00:16:45,200 Speaker 10: people start losing their jobs. Look, they're gonna blame Trump. 358 00:16:45,400 --> 00:16:47,520 Speaker 10: And this is not a you know, I'm a communicator, 359 00:16:47,560 --> 00:16:49,240 Speaker 10: and you know I love to say like, this is 360 00:16:49,280 --> 00:16:51,400 Speaker 10: not a communications problem, Like this is going to be 361 00:16:51,440 --> 00:16:54,600 Speaker 10: an economic problem. If if the trends that we're seeing 362 00:16:54,600 --> 00:16:56,800 Speaker 10: that Molly was just talking about, if that actually comes 363 00:16:56,840 --> 00:16:59,560 Speaker 10: to fruition, he's going to have Republicans are going to 364 00:16:59,600 --> 00:17:01,000 Speaker 10: have a real local problem on their hand. 365 00:17:01,120 --> 00:17:04,359 Speaker 2: Has there been a communications problem when you have Howard 366 00:17:04,400 --> 00:17:07,639 Speaker 2: Lutnik on one network, Scott Besstt on another. Then the 367 00:17:07,680 --> 00:17:09,520 Speaker 2: president's doing an hour and a half in the oval, 368 00:17:09,520 --> 00:17:12,160 Speaker 2: and everyone's saying something a little bit different about tariffs, 369 00:17:12,200 --> 00:17:14,480 Speaker 2: about whether we've talked to China about whether we're going 370 00:17:14,560 --> 00:17:17,639 Speaker 2: to have exemptions. There has been some confusion in the message. 371 00:17:17,640 --> 00:17:19,600 Speaker 2: If you were in the communications office, how would you 372 00:17:19,640 --> 00:17:20,240 Speaker 2: true this up? 373 00:17:20,720 --> 00:17:24,159 Speaker 10: Look, I think there's been to say there's confusion on 374 00:17:24,720 --> 00:17:28,200 Speaker 10: the tariffs's. I think a misunderstand is an understatement. There's 375 00:17:28,240 --> 00:17:30,680 Speaker 10: been no communication strategy on the tariffs here. Right, you 376 00:17:30,760 --> 00:17:32,680 Speaker 10: have Howard Lutnick out there saying we aren't going to 377 00:17:32,760 --> 00:17:34,680 Speaker 10: do tariffs because we're going to raise all this revenue 378 00:17:34,720 --> 00:17:35,560 Speaker 10: to balance the budget. 379 00:17:35,640 --> 00:17:35,760 Speaker 8: Right. 380 00:17:35,880 --> 00:17:37,600 Speaker 10: You've had other people out there saying we're going to 381 00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:39,919 Speaker 10: do tariffs to get great trade deals so we can 382 00:17:39,960 --> 00:17:42,960 Speaker 10: do even more trading. You've had other people saying we're 383 00:17:42,960 --> 00:17:46,400 Speaker 10: going to do trade tariffs so that we can rise 384 00:17:47,040 --> 00:17:49,600 Speaker 10: increase the cost of imports. Yeah, and force people to 385 00:17:49,600 --> 00:17:51,320 Speaker 10: bring those jobs back to the US, so you know, 386 00:17:51,320 --> 00:17:54,119 Speaker 10: we can get more factories, more manufacturing in the US. 387 00:17:54,320 --> 00:17:55,840 Speaker 10: All three of those things cannot be true at the 388 00:17:55,880 --> 00:17:58,720 Speaker 10: same time, right, you can't have great trade deals and 389 00:17:59,480 --> 00:18:01,800 Speaker 10: raise a bunch of new tariffs. And so I think 390 00:18:01,920 --> 00:18:04,200 Speaker 10: the I think the fact that and at the same time, 391 00:18:04,240 --> 00:18:06,560 Speaker 10: you're asking the American people to make great sacrifices, You're 392 00:18:06,600 --> 00:18:09,120 Speaker 10: asking them to pay more for the things that they 393 00:18:09,160 --> 00:18:12,040 Speaker 10: buy every day, which is gonna be unpopular. If you're 394 00:18:12,040 --> 00:18:14,000 Speaker 10: going to ask the American people to make great sacrifice, 395 00:18:14,080 --> 00:18:16,639 Speaker 10: you have to have a really clear rationale for that, 396 00:18:16,680 --> 00:18:18,080 Speaker 10: And we haven't heard that from the White House. 397 00:18:18,240 --> 00:18:20,600 Speaker 2: What do you do optically tonight? How do you make 398 00:18:20,640 --> 00:18:24,080 Speaker 2: this different? We're so used to seeing Trump rallies. Do 399 00:18:24,119 --> 00:18:27,280 Speaker 2: you have a big opening act here? Is there a flyover? 400 00:18:27,440 --> 00:18:29,680 Speaker 2: You know he's gonna be calling people up on the stage, right, 401 00:18:29,720 --> 00:18:32,080 Speaker 2: Alex Come, I love you, Alex, Come talk to the 402 00:18:32,119 --> 00:18:34,679 Speaker 2: people for a minute. Is this a stem winder like 403 00:18:34,720 --> 00:18:36,240 Speaker 2: we saw in twenty twenty four? 404 00:18:36,600 --> 00:18:37,320 Speaker 11: I would assume. 405 00:18:37,359 --> 00:18:37,439 Speaker 4: So. 406 00:18:37,560 --> 00:18:41,000 Speaker 10: I mean, look, I think Trump's current team has survived 407 00:18:41,040 --> 00:18:42,280 Speaker 10: because they let Trump be Trump. 408 00:18:42,400 --> 00:18:43,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's up to Trump. 409 00:18:43,359 --> 00:18:46,360 Speaker 10: He's gonna do what he did a National convention. Look, 410 00:18:46,359 --> 00:18:48,760 Speaker 10: he gave the longest acceptance speech ever at the RNC. 411 00:18:49,080 --> 00:18:51,760 Speaker 10: He gave the longest ever Stay of the Union speech. 412 00:18:51,920 --> 00:18:54,480 Speaker 10: A couple of weeks ago. Tonight'speech is gonna be long. 413 00:18:54,560 --> 00:18:57,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, Okay, cancel the dinner plans, James. We're going for 414 00:18:57,080 --> 00:19:01,359 Speaker 2: the long haul here. We're very cited for another late one. 415 00:19:01,520 --> 00:19:04,119 Speaker 2: Will there be news becomes a question and does it matter? 416 00:19:04,240 --> 00:19:06,240 Speaker 2: Does he need to make news tonight? Just talk about 417 00:19:06,720 --> 00:19:08,960 Speaker 2: some relief that he might offer in the form of 418 00:19:09,240 --> 00:19:11,359 Speaker 2: auto teriffs. For instance, you go to Michigan, do you 419 00:19:11,440 --> 00:19:13,880 Speaker 2: have to bring something with you? Maybe? 420 00:19:13,960 --> 00:19:17,960 Speaker 10: I mean, look, that's just right, Like I'm out of 421 00:19:17,960 --> 00:19:21,040 Speaker 10: the prediction business. When Donald when it comes to Donald Trump, like, 422 00:19:21,040 --> 00:19:22,639 Speaker 10: who knows what he's going to do, what he's going 423 00:19:22,720 --> 00:19:23,159 Speaker 10: to say. 424 00:19:23,440 --> 00:19:25,920 Speaker 2: You know, at the end of the day, Look, I think. 425 00:19:25,800 --> 00:19:28,760 Speaker 10: We should all expect some sort of tariff walk back 426 00:19:28,800 --> 00:19:31,080 Speaker 10: over the next thirty days. You see, you see what 427 00:19:31,160 --> 00:19:33,800 Speaker 10: importers are saying, You see what the Port of Los 428 00:19:33,840 --> 00:19:36,480 Speaker 10: Angeles is saying, You see what the retailers are expecting. 429 00:19:37,160 --> 00:19:40,480 Speaker 10: This if, if all this comes to fruition, Memorial Day 430 00:19:40,520 --> 00:19:42,919 Speaker 10: is going to be rough politically, the economy is going 431 00:19:42,960 --> 00:19:45,119 Speaker 10: to be rough, and so I would expect over the 432 00:19:45,119 --> 00:19:47,199 Speaker 10: next thirty days to continue to see the sort of 433 00:19:47,240 --> 00:19:49,760 Speaker 10: tariff walkbacks that we've seen over the last three weeks, 434 00:19:50,400 --> 00:19:52,399 Speaker 10: and maybe he lays out or hints at some of 435 00:19:52,400 --> 00:19:52,800 Speaker 10: that tonight. 436 00:19:53,040 --> 00:19:56,439 Speaker 2: So lawmakers marching in parades and doing town halls, if 437 00:19:56,440 --> 00:19:58,720 Speaker 2: they do them, yeah, I mean at least republic lawmakers 438 00:19:58,720 --> 00:20:00,080 Speaker 2: over Memorial of the Week and are going to get. 439 00:20:00,040 --> 00:20:02,560 Speaker 10: A earful look if the tariffs go If if the 440 00:20:02,600 --> 00:20:05,960 Speaker 10: tariffs go into it affect as he said, and they're 441 00:20:05,960 --> 00:20:07,760 Speaker 10: allowed to go into effect over the next couple of weeks, 442 00:20:07,760 --> 00:20:11,280 Speaker 10: so you're going to see economic uh, an economic response 443 00:20:11,280 --> 00:20:13,480 Speaker 10: to that. It's going to be very negative. And these 444 00:20:13,520 --> 00:20:16,160 Speaker 10: things lag right first, uh, you know, first you see 445 00:20:16,160 --> 00:20:21,680 Speaker 10: fewer imports. Then look if if if, if container ships 446 00:20:21,680 --> 00:20:23,920 Speaker 10: are not coming into the Port of Los Angeles, then 447 00:20:24,000 --> 00:20:26,320 Speaker 10: you don't need the truck drivers to drive those goods 448 00:20:26,480 --> 00:20:28,600 Speaker 10: to the to you know, to to the stores. The 449 00:20:28,640 --> 00:20:30,800 Speaker 10: stories don't have things to sell. You don't need people 450 00:20:30,840 --> 00:20:33,800 Speaker 10: working hourly, you know hourly. If there's nothing to buy, 451 00:20:34,119 --> 00:20:35,800 Speaker 10: you know, people are prices are going to goup, people 452 00:20:35,800 --> 00:20:39,320 Speaker 10: are gonna get frustrated. This is this is all very foreseeable. 453 00:20:39,400 --> 00:20:41,080 Speaker 10: I think you guys on Bloomberger are talking about it 454 00:20:41,119 --> 00:20:42,840 Speaker 10: every single day. I think people inside the White House 455 00:20:42,880 --> 00:20:45,040 Speaker 10: recognize this is coming, which is why you have seen 456 00:20:45,400 --> 00:20:47,520 Speaker 10: the steady walking back of the tariffs. I would expect 457 00:20:47,560 --> 00:20:49,320 Speaker 10: to continue to see that. If you don't see that, 458 00:20:49,800 --> 00:20:52,080 Speaker 10: then there is going to be I think real economic 459 00:20:52,160 --> 00:20:54,280 Speaker 10: headwinds this summer, and the White House is going to 460 00:20:54,359 --> 00:20:55,720 Speaker 10: face the political palty. 461 00:20:55,840 --> 00:20:58,119 Speaker 2: Wait, hear lines about empty shelves and so that's a 462 00:20:58,240 --> 00:21:02,160 Speaker 2: that's a horrifying thought for any administration in our remaining moment. 463 00:21:02,200 --> 00:21:05,800 Speaker 2: Then you're a political strategist. If you're a Democrat right now, 464 00:21:06,320 --> 00:21:08,359 Speaker 2: are you writing the menu for the midterms? 465 00:21:08,400 --> 00:21:10,480 Speaker 10: Look, it turns out James Carver Level's right, right, Like 466 00:21:10,960 --> 00:21:13,280 Speaker 10: all Democrats needed to do was going back, was going 467 00:21:13,280 --> 00:21:17,080 Speaker 10: to hiding. The president's poll numbers are not down because 468 00:21:17,119 --> 00:21:21,160 Speaker 10: Democrats have figured out, you know, effective messaging. To the contrary, 469 00:21:21,400 --> 00:21:24,919 Speaker 10: I think the messaging we've seen from the Democrats is 470 00:21:24,920 --> 00:21:28,359 Speaker 10: is pretty lousy. But they're in the opposition, right and 471 00:21:28,359 --> 00:21:30,480 Speaker 10: so they're going to benefit in the mid term. If 472 00:21:30,480 --> 00:21:32,960 Speaker 10: the economy is in the tank and Trump is unpopular, 473 00:21:33,200 --> 00:21:35,840 Speaker 10: the Democrats are going to have a good midterms, just 474 00:21:35,880 --> 00:21:37,520 Speaker 10: like Republicans did four years ago. 475 00:21:37,600 --> 00:21:39,520 Speaker 2: Fascinating. I'm really glad to have you back in the 476 00:21:39,520 --> 00:21:42,679 Speaker 2: fold here. Alex ConA, thank you so much, Firehouse Strategies. 477 00:21:42,840 --> 00:21:44,719 Speaker 2: Big thanks to Maddie and your team for putting us 478 00:21:44,720 --> 00:21:47,920 Speaker 2: back in touch. Let's keep this conversation going because this 479 00:21:48,000 --> 00:21:50,040 Speaker 2: is not one that's going to go away anytime soon. 480 00:21:50,480 --> 00:21:54,119 Speaker 2: A voice of experience here in Washington, Republican strategist Alex Conant, 481 00:21:54,160 --> 00:21:56,800 Speaker 2: many thanks here on Balance of Power. I'm Joe Matthew 482 00:21:56,840 --> 00:21:59,359 Speaker 2: and Washington. Glad you're with us here on Bloomberg Radio, 483 00:21:59,440 --> 00:22:03,320 Speaker 2: on the satellite and on YouTube. 484 00:22:04,280 --> 00:22:07,920 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast ketsas 485 00:22:08,000 --> 00:22:11,240 Speaker 1: live weekdays at noon and five pm Eastern on Apple, 486 00:22:11,320 --> 00:22:14,680 Speaker 1: Cocklay and Android Auto with the Bloomberg Business App. Listen 487 00:22:14,760 --> 00:22:17,880 Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us 488 00:22:17,920 --> 00:22:19,280 Speaker 1: live on YouTube. 489 00:22:20,359 --> 00:22:22,600 Speaker 12: We're seeing a new trend here in Washington this week, 490 00:22:22,600 --> 00:22:26,720 Speaker 12: which is a pre opening bell briefing here in Washington 491 00:22:26,760 --> 00:22:29,159 Speaker 12: from the White House Press Secretary in Caroline Levitt. Two 492 00:22:29,200 --> 00:22:32,439 Speaker 12: mornings in a row, eight thirty am Eastern time is 493 00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:34,520 Speaker 12: when these have been called and she's been joined by 494 00:22:34,520 --> 00:22:37,160 Speaker 12: other officials in the administration. Yesterday was Tom Homan, who, 495 00:22:37,160 --> 00:22:39,560 Speaker 12: of course, as the borders are today, it was the 496 00:22:39,560 --> 00:22:44,879 Speaker 12: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessett as tariffs as always remain in focus, 497 00:22:44,880 --> 00:22:49,440 Speaker 12: specifically tariff negotiations with trading partners and the ongoing question 498 00:22:49,480 --> 00:22:52,240 Speaker 12: as to whether or not those negotiations are even happening 499 00:22:52,880 --> 00:22:55,800 Speaker 12: with China at the moment. This was the Treasury Secretary earlier. 500 00:22:56,160 --> 00:22:59,840 Speaker 3: Well, I'm not going to get into the nitty gratty 501 00:23:00,040 --> 00:23:03,840 Speaker 3: again of who's talking to whom, but as I said, 502 00:23:04,400 --> 00:23:09,200 Speaker 3: I believe for the Chinese these terrafts are unsustainable very quickly. 503 00:23:09,240 --> 00:23:11,520 Speaker 4: Two days ago, you and you didn't know if President 504 00:23:11,520 --> 00:23:13,320 Speaker 4: Trump had spoken to Shijinping. 505 00:23:13,720 --> 00:23:15,280 Speaker 11: Do you know now? Again? 506 00:23:15,440 --> 00:23:17,240 Speaker 5: I would say, Caroline and I have a lot of 507 00:23:17,320 --> 00:23:19,600 Speaker 5: jobs around the White House. Running the switchboard in one 508 00:23:19,640 --> 00:23:20,280 Speaker 5: of them. 509 00:23:21,560 --> 00:23:24,040 Speaker 2: Running the switchboard isn't one of them. Maybe Tyler can 510 00:23:24,080 --> 00:23:26,800 Speaker 2: help us with the switchboard. She's made her way to Michigan, 511 00:23:27,200 --> 00:23:29,520 Speaker 2: where President Trump is going to be speaking later in 512 00:23:29,560 --> 00:23:33,040 Speaker 2: what's being billed as an achievement speech marking one hundred days. 513 00:23:33,040 --> 00:23:38,600 Speaker 2: Bloomberg's Tyler Kendall in Warren, Michigan. It's at a community college. 514 00:23:39,080 --> 00:23:40,520 Speaker 2: Tyler set the stage for us. 515 00:23:43,040 --> 00:23:45,919 Speaker 4: Yeah, Hey, Jim, so Warren, Michigan. We're in Macomb County. 516 00:23:45,920 --> 00:23:47,520 Speaker 4: You can probably hear the crowd behind me. We're going 517 00:23:47,600 --> 00:23:49,600 Speaker 4: to show you what the scene already looks like for 518 00:23:49,680 --> 00:23:52,360 Speaker 4: our radio listeners. You can see people are already starting 519 00:23:52,640 --> 00:23:55,439 Speaker 4: to line up here as President Trump is expected to 520 00:23:55,640 --> 00:23:58,760 Speaker 4: take this stage at six pm Eastern. This is an 521 00:23:58,840 --> 00:24:01,639 Speaker 4: auto industry hubby. In fact, a county official tells me 522 00:24:01,680 --> 00:24:05,160 Speaker 4: the area has three hundred and thirty eight vehicle manufacturers 523 00:24:05,200 --> 00:24:08,320 Speaker 4: employees about twenty two thousand people. And it comes as 524 00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:11,280 Speaker 4: President Trump is expected to sign those executive orders on 525 00:24:11,359 --> 00:24:14,120 Speaker 4: Air Force one on his way over here to Michigan 526 00:24:14,119 --> 00:24:16,520 Speaker 4: that you've been talking about that could give some reprieve 527 00:24:16,600 --> 00:24:20,320 Speaker 4: to automakers. That includes preventing the stacking of levies four 528 00:24:20,359 --> 00:24:22,399 Speaker 4: automakers so that they want to be subject to that 529 00:24:22,440 --> 00:24:25,760 Speaker 4: twenty five percent tariff on stealing aluminum, for example. It 530 00:24:25,800 --> 00:24:30,360 Speaker 4: also would potentially modify how we see auto parts tariffs 531 00:24:30,560 --> 00:24:34,280 Speaker 4: end up being terrify, allowing companies that make the fully 532 00:24:34,280 --> 00:24:37,600 Speaker 4: assembled vehicles in the United States to get an offset 533 00:24:37,640 --> 00:24:39,560 Speaker 4: of up to three point seventy five percent of the 534 00:24:39,680 --> 00:24:43,720 Speaker 4: MSRP value for the next year. Now, administration officials, and 535 00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:45,800 Speaker 4: we should be clear this is not a changing the 536 00:24:45,840 --> 00:24:49,240 Speaker 4: actual twenty five percent teriff rate that automakers are facing, 537 00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:51,439 Speaker 4: but administration officials say that this should give them at 538 00:24:51,520 --> 00:24:53,359 Speaker 4: least a little bit of a boost, a little bit 539 00:24:53,400 --> 00:24:57,200 Speaker 4: of a reprieve to re short manufacturing to places like Michigan. 540 00:24:57,320 --> 00:24:59,280 Speaker 4: Here's what the Treasury Secretary had to say about it 541 00:24:59,320 --> 00:25:00,840 Speaker 4: earlier today. 542 00:25:01,200 --> 00:25:03,840 Speaker 5: I can tell you that it will go substantially toward 543 00:25:04,080 --> 00:25:10,160 Speaker 5: restoring America and auto manufacturing. And again, the goal here 544 00:25:10,440 --> 00:25:15,720 Speaker 5: is to bring back the high quality industrial jobs to 545 00:25:15,800 --> 00:25:16,960 Speaker 5: the US. 546 00:25:19,960 --> 00:25:22,560 Speaker 4: I was on press call earlier today with senior Commerce 547 00:25:22,600 --> 00:25:25,399 Speaker 4: officials who told US reporters that ultimately it really was 548 00:25:25,440 --> 00:25:27,800 Speaker 4: the talks with the big three automakers that made the 549 00:25:27,840 --> 00:25:32,240 Speaker 4: difference here that ultimately spurred the administration to make these changes, 550 00:25:32,280 --> 00:25:35,040 Speaker 4: because the Whitehouse says that they have gone commitments from 551 00:25:35,119 --> 00:25:38,040 Speaker 4: these companies to reshore production and they just needed a 552 00:25:38,040 --> 00:25:38,800 Speaker 4: little more time. 553 00:25:40,520 --> 00:25:43,480 Speaker 12: Well and Tyler obviously no surprise that this is likely 554 00:25:43,560 --> 00:25:46,359 Speaker 12: to feature heavily in the President's speech tonight, given where 555 00:25:46,400 --> 00:25:48,600 Speaker 12: he is speaking, and we can already hear the excitement 556 00:25:48,640 --> 00:25:52,840 Speaker 12: of the crowd that is gathering hours early. What are 557 00:25:52,880 --> 00:25:55,880 Speaker 12: his other primary messages going to be tonight for those 558 00:25:55,920 --> 00:25:59,400 Speaker 12: who are assembled to see him. 559 00:26:00,200 --> 00:26:02,800 Speaker 4: Well, the administration really is focusing on the two prongs 560 00:26:02,800 --> 00:26:05,399 Speaker 4: of its economic approach today, with Scott Bessen this morning 561 00:26:05,440 --> 00:26:08,960 Speaker 4: tounting progress when it comes to tariff negotiations, although we 562 00:26:08,960 --> 00:26:11,639 Speaker 4: have yet to see any more concrete details about exactly 563 00:26:11,680 --> 00:26:13,600 Speaker 4: where those stands. And then the other priority is that 564 00:26:13,600 --> 00:26:16,199 Speaker 4: they are pushing that they are moving very fast to 565 00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:19,000 Speaker 4: get his tax agenda through. In fact, President Trump told 566 00:26:19,040 --> 00:26:22,040 Speaker 4: Michigan Republicans not to come here tonight because he wants 567 00:26:22,040 --> 00:26:25,840 Speaker 4: them to stay in Washington to get done the reconciliation package. 568 00:26:25,880 --> 00:26:28,320 Speaker 4: We heard from the Treasury Secretary yesterday that they would 569 00:26:28,400 --> 00:26:31,000 Speaker 4: like to see the entire package done by July fourth. 570 00:26:31,000 --> 00:26:34,240 Speaker 4: It's something that Senate Majority Leader John Thune said was 571 00:26:34,240 --> 00:26:37,359 Speaker 4: an aspirational goal. Instead, we're really thinking that that X 572 00:26:37,480 --> 00:26:39,840 Speaker 4: date is going to be the hard deadline for lawmakers. 573 00:26:39,840 --> 00:26:41,560 Speaker 4: But it is clear that this White House is pushing 574 00:26:41,560 --> 00:26:44,280 Speaker 4: to get more cash into consumers pockets quickly try to 575 00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:47,480 Speaker 4: turn the attention there as they deal with the fallout 576 00:26:47,480 --> 00:26:50,359 Speaker 4: when it comes to the tariffs from retailers and consumers alike. 577 00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:54,960 Speaker 12: All Right, Bloomberg's Tyler Genthal live in Warren, Michigan, where 578 00:26:54,960 --> 00:26:56,880 Speaker 12: it is already, Loud. I can't imagine what it's going 579 00:26:56,920 --> 00:26:59,359 Speaker 12: to be like this evening when President Trump speaks at 580 00:26:59,359 --> 00:27:02,439 Speaker 12: six pm Hestern time. Thank you so much, Tyler, and 581 00:27:02,520 --> 00:27:04,320 Speaker 12: for a kind of taste as to what we might 582 00:27:04,359 --> 00:27:06,960 Speaker 12: be able to get from President Trump tonight. Beyond what 583 00:27:07,000 --> 00:27:09,320 Speaker 12: we just heard from Tyler, let's hear from the President 584 00:27:09,400 --> 00:27:11,800 Speaker 12: himself some of the highlights of his first one hundred 585 00:27:11,840 --> 00:27:12,600 Speaker 12: days in office. 586 00:27:13,119 --> 00:27:16,200 Speaker 13: The Golden Age of America begins right now. I will 587 00:27:16,240 --> 00:27:22,880 Speaker 13: sign a historic executive order instituting reciprocal tariffs. My fellow Americans, 588 00:27:22,880 --> 00:27:27,879 Speaker 13: this is liberation Day China sixty seven percent, this ending 589 00:27:27,920 --> 00:27:29,680 Speaker 13: Fenton All to Mexico, in Canada. 590 00:27:29,760 --> 00:27:32,240 Speaker 2: We're not in a good positions. You don't have the 591 00:27:32,320 --> 00:27:33,200 Speaker 2: cards right now. 592 00:27:33,240 --> 00:27:37,119 Speaker 13: One of the most important initiatives is doge. We're going 593 00:27:37,160 --> 00:27:39,960 Speaker 13: to be cutting taxes and as possible, we'll do a 594 00:27:40,000 --> 00:27:42,959 Speaker 13: complete tax cut. I have a great relationship with Presidency. 595 00:27:43,000 --> 00:27:44,679 Speaker 13: I hope it's going to stay that way. We are 596 00:27:44,760 --> 00:27:47,960 Speaker 13: finally going to be able to make America great again, 597 00:27:48,400 --> 00:27:50,320 Speaker 13: greater than ever before. 598 00:27:52,760 --> 00:27:55,800 Speaker 12: Words from the Republican president of the United States, and 599 00:27:55,800 --> 00:27:57,439 Speaker 12: we want to get the other side now from a 600 00:27:57,480 --> 00:28:01,160 Speaker 12: Democratic leader of a state, the state of Kansas, specifically, 601 00:28:01,400 --> 00:28:04,920 Speaker 12: it's governor, the chair of the Democratic Governor's Association. Mind you, 602 00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:07,359 Speaker 12: Laura Kelly, is joining us now here on Bloomberg TV 603 00:28:07,480 --> 00:28:10,280 Speaker 12: and Radio. Governor, thank you very much for being with 604 00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:12,480 Speaker 12: us here on balance of power. I would imagine it 605 00:28:12,480 --> 00:28:14,920 Speaker 12: will be several times tonight we might hear some iteration 606 00:28:15,480 --> 00:28:19,679 Speaker 12: of promises made, promise is kept by President Trump, and 607 00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:22,600 Speaker 12: hear those words from his lips. He argues, Governor that 608 00:28:22,640 --> 00:28:24,600 Speaker 12: what we have seen over the last one hundred days 609 00:28:24,640 --> 00:28:27,960 Speaker 12: is him fulfilling the desire of the voters who elected him. 610 00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:30,119 Speaker 12: Is he fundamentally wrong about that? 611 00:28:31,800 --> 00:28:33,760 Speaker 8: I don't know if I would say he is wrong. 612 00:28:34,080 --> 00:28:37,040 Speaker 8: I mean, certainly, in his mind he feels like he 613 00:28:37,160 --> 00:28:39,120 Speaker 8: said he was going to do all of these things, 614 00:28:39,160 --> 00:28:40,400 Speaker 8: and he's doing all of them. 615 00:28:40,920 --> 00:28:42,200 Speaker 11: And there are actually some of the. 616 00:28:42,120 --> 00:28:46,640 Speaker 8: Things that he proposed doing that I think everybody would agree. 617 00:28:48,200 --> 00:28:49,520 Speaker 11: Could be very good things. 618 00:28:49,680 --> 00:28:53,400 Speaker 8: You know, certainly we're all cognizant of the fact that 619 00:28:53,440 --> 00:28:56,480 Speaker 8: we had an issue at our vorder and that that 620 00:28:56,560 --> 00:29:01,480 Speaker 8: needs to be cleaned up. I would agree, I think 621 00:29:01,520 --> 00:29:04,600 Speaker 8: though we can't leave it just at cleaning up the 622 00:29:04,640 --> 00:29:09,400 Speaker 8: border and deporting people who may or may not be criminals. 623 00:29:10,080 --> 00:29:13,800 Speaker 8: I think it needs to go further than that to 624 00:29:13,840 --> 00:29:18,280 Speaker 8: deal with the entire immigration issue and come up with 625 00:29:18,520 --> 00:29:27,200 Speaker 8: finally a comprehensive immigration reform package that works for our states. 626 00:29:27,720 --> 00:29:32,480 Speaker 8: Every state I know is facing workforce shortages, and by 627 00:29:32,560 --> 00:29:37,920 Speaker 8: deporting potential workers, we are not working towards resolution of that. 628 00:29:38,760 --> 00:29:43,480 Speaker 8: We really need the administration and Congress to sit down 629 00:29:43,480 --> 00:29:47,280 Speaker 8: and finally come up with a real solution that would 630 00:29:47,560 --> 00:29:53,000 Speaker 8: resolve the border issue but also resolve our workforce issue. 631 00:29:54,360 --> 00:29:56,520 Speaker 2: Governor Kelly, We're lucky to talk to a lot of 632 00:29:56,560 --> 00:29:59,520 Speaker 2: elected officials on this program, but it's always different when 633 00:29:59,520 --> 00:30:03,840 Speaker 2: you speak an executive. Governors and mayors simply have a 634 00:30:03,880 --> 00:30:06,880 Speaker 2: different reality than a lot of elected officials here in 635 00:30:07,040 --> 00:30:09,000 Speaker 2: Washington who play the PARTI is in game and do 636 00:30:09,080 --> 00:30:11,280 Speaker 2: a lot of talking. You have to deal with things 637 00:30:11,320 --> 00:30:15,000 Speaker 2: like balancing budgets, making sure services are delivered, making sure 638 00:30:15,120 --> 00:30:19,719 Speaker 2: roads are paved, actual things that impact constituents' lives. And 639 00:30:19,760 --> 00:30:23,640 Speaker 2: so I'm curious what your pragmatic view is of this, 640 00:30:23,640 --> 00:30:26,120 Speaker 2: this waiting period, this sort of limbo that we're in 641 00:30:26,200 --> 00:30:29,800 Speaker 2: right now, and how much time President Trump actually has 642 00:30:30,280 --> 00:30:33,600 Speaker 2: to set the record straight and deliver a clear message 643 00:30:33,600 --> 00:30:36,560 Speaker 2: on tariffs. You're talking to voters every day about this. 644 00:30:36,920 --> 00:30:38,240 Speaker 2: Is that window about to close? 645 00:30:39,160 --> 00:30:39,320 Speaker 9: Oh? 646 00:30:39,360 --> 00:30:42,320 Speaker 8: I think I think we're pastime. You know, I think 647 00:30:42,440 --> 00:30:46,680 Speaker 8: the first hundred days of this administration has just sown 648 00:30:46,800 --> 00:30:53,680 Speaker 8: chaos and uncertainty all across the country and all across 649 00:30:54,880 --> 00:31:00,600 Speaker 8: issues and industries. You know, the tariff issue is obviously 650 00:31:00,720 --> 00:31:06,240 Speaker 8: the one that's most prominent and clearly creating issues for 651 00:31:07,400 --> 00:31:12,000 Speaker 8: our economies in our states. You know, in my state alone, 652 00:31:12,320 --> 00:31:15,640 Speaker 8: you know, we have worked so hard over the last 653 00:31:15,680 --> 00:31:19,080 Speaker 8: six years and been very successful in growing our economy, 654 00:31:19,400 --> 00:31:23,720 Speaker 8: you know, in bringing in new and different industries into 655 00:31:23,760 --> 00:31:29,360 Speaker 8: our state, creating seventy five thousand jobs, bringing in twenty billion, 656 00:31:29,480 --> 00:31:32,720 Speaker 8: twenty two billion dollars worth of new capital investment, which 657 00:31:32,760 --> 00:31:34,440 Speaker 8: is huge for a state like Kansas. 658 00:31:35,000 --> 00:31:36,360 Speaker 11: All of what we've been. 659 00:31:36,240 --> 00:31:41,080 Speaker 8: Doing is getting put up in the air as the 660 00:31:41,240 --> 00:31:44,160 Speaker 8: companies that we have recruited, the companies that are here, 661 00:31:44,600 --> 00:31:47,880 Speaker 8: are dealing with all of this chaos and uncertainty on 662 00:31:47,960 --> 00:31:50,440 Speaker 8: the tariff issue, and they don't know where to go 663 00:31:51,600 --> 00:31:55,600 Speaker 8: or what will work as they move forward. So everybody's 664 00:31:55,640 --> 00:31:59,720 Speaker 8: getting to a standstill kind of positioning, which is not 665 00:31:59,800 --> 00:32:03,320 Speaker 8: good for the companies, and it's certainly not good for 666 00:32:03,440 --> 00:32:10,240 Speaker 8: our states. So, you know, I while I recognize that 667 00:32:10,360 --> 00:32:17,760 Speaker 8: every new administration has the right and responsibility to you know, 668 00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:21,560 Speaker 8: put into place policies and procedures that they think are 669 00:32:21,640 --> 00:32:24,080 Speaker 8: necessary to move the country in a way that they 670 00:32:24,200 --> 00:32:28,520 Speaker 8: think appropriate, but doing it in this way where it's 671 00:32:28,680 --> 00:32:33,240 Speaker 8: just willingly one thing one day, another thing the next day, 672 00:32:33,960 --> 00:32:38,360 Speaker 8: isn't helpful not to move their agenda forward, but certainly 673 00:32:38,400 --> 00:32:41,760 Speaker 8: not to help our states stay on a path. 674 00:32:43,520 --> 00:32:46,400 Speaker 12: Well, in your state specifically, Governor has more than fifty 675 00:32:46,440 --> 00:32:49,160 Speaker 12: thousand farms, and I wonder what you're hearing from farmers 676 00:32:49,200 --> 00:32:52,360 Speaker 12: specifically about the impact of tariffs on them and whether 677 00:32:52,480 --> 00:32:55,880 Speaker 12: they're going to need to count on subsidies from either 678 00:32:55,920 --> 00:33:02,280 Speaker 12: the state government or the federal government to offset the impact. 679 00:33:00,040 --> 00:33:03,160 Speaker 8: Out Well, you know, we have two major industries here 680 00:33:03,760 --> 00:33:05,360 Speaker 8: in the state of Kansas. 681 00:33:05,480 --> 00:33:09,320 Speaker 11: Aviation is one of them. And you know, as has been. 682 00:33:09,200 --> 00:33:11,680 Speaker 8: In the paper, there are lots of issues going on 683 00:33:11,760 --> 00:33:14,800 Speaker 8: with the aviation issue industry as a result of these 684 00:33:14,840 --> 00:33:18,040 Speaker 8: tariffs and these sort of international battles that are going 685 00:33:18,080 --> 00:33:21,400 Speaker 8: on right now, but certainly in agriculture here in Kansas. 686 00:33:21,640 --> 00:33:24,040 Speaker 8: But then across the country. 687 00:33:24,520 --> 00:33:29,240 Speaker 11: Uh. The tariffs create absolute havoc uh. 688 00:33:29,840 --> 00:33:36,480 Speaker 8: And real concern for our farmers, you know, our you know, 689 00:33:36,560 --> 00:33:39,320 Speaker 8: I was the very first and maybe the only Democratic 690 00:33:39,360 --> 00:33:44,040 Speaker 8: governor who signed on to the USMCA, the trade deal 691 00:33:44,720 --> 00:33:49,080 Speaker 8: that the Trump administration put together in his first administration, 692 00:33:49,560 --> 00:33:52,640 Speaker 8: you know, dealing with our relationship with Canada and Mexico 693 00:33:52,760 --> 00:33:55,320 Speaker 8: and the United States. I signed out of that because 694 00:33:55,360 --> 00:33:57,480 Speaker 8: I thought it was in the best interests of Kansas, 695 00:33:57,680 --> 00:33:59,840 Speaker 8: you know. And now that's all being thrown out. 696 00:34:00,520 --> 00:34:01,000 Speaker 11: Uh. 697 00:34:01,080 --> 00:34:04,880 Speaker 8: And you know what's being it's nothing's really replacing it. 698 00:34:05,320 --> 00:34:09,279 Speaker 8: But what has happened is that our relationship, particularly with 699 00:34:09,400 --> 00:34:13,840 Speaker 8: our two biggest trade partners, Canada and Mexico, are in 700 00:34:13,920 --> 00:34:18,120 Speaker 8: a shambles. You know, our farmers very much depend upon 701 00:34:18,640 --> 00:34:23,440 Speaker 8: the potash that they get from Canada to fertilize their fields. 702 00:34:24,000 --> 00:34:28,080 Speaker 11: Uh. You know, our UH are a lot of our. 703 00:34:28,880 --> 00:34:33,320 Speaker 8: UH produce and stuff which we can't grow here, you know, 704 00:34:33,440 --> 00:34:34,680 Speaker 8: is brought in from Mexico. 705 00:34:35,560 --> 00:34:38,400 Speaker 11: Our exports. You know, when, for instance, when the U. 706 00:34:38,560 --> 00:34:39,000 Speaker 9: S a i. 707 00:34:39,120 --> 00:34:42,799 Speaker 8: D Was sort of shut down, you know, moments after 708 00:34:42,880 --> 00:34:46,160 Speaker 8: he took office. You know, we had I don't know 709 00:34:46,200 --> 00:34:51,480 Speaker 8: how many millions of UH pounds of milo that was 710 00:34:51,560 --> 00:34:55,040 Speaker 8: sitting in silos here in the state of Kansas. 711 00:34:55,200 --> 00:34:57,960 Speaker 11: Their only customer was the USDA. 712 00:34:58,680 --> 00:35:02,960 Speaker 8: UH. They were growing this typically for them to use. 713 00:35:03,080 --> 00:35:07,680 Speaker 8: So my farmers are stuck with this stuff and the 714 00:35:07,719 --> 00:35:10,759 Speaker 8: market has been completely shut down. So there are a 715 00:35:10,880 --> 00:35:14,359 Speaker 8: lot of problems and we absolutely have got to come 716 00:35:14,360 --> 00:35:18,680 Speaker 8: to some resolution very quickly. And they don't want, you know, 717 00:35:19,120 --> 00:35:21,920 Speaker 8: a handout. You know, they got that the first time around. 718 00:35:21,960 --> 00:35:25,480 Speaker 8: You know, remember that tariffs were put in place in 719 00:35:25,560 --> 00:35:30,120 Speaker 8: the first Trump administration and they did backfill that with 720 00:35:30,120 --> 00:35:34,640 Speaker 8: with cash. The farmers don't want that, you know that 721 00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:37,919 Speaker 8: that's a band aid that doesn't do anything for them 722 00:35:38,480 --> 00:35:41,800 Speaker 8: going forward. I think their biggest fear with what's going 723 00:35:41,840 --> 00:35:45,480 Speaker 8: on right now is that, you know, not only are 724 00:35:45,480 --> 00:35:48,919 Speaker 8: they not able to sell their their product right now, 725 00:35:49,200 --> 00:35:54,120 Speaker 8: export their products right but that they will ultimately lose 726 00:35:54,160 --> 00:35:59,759 Speaker 8: their markets. That countries aren't going to wait forever, you know, 727 00:36:00,040 --> 00:36:02,680 Speaker 8: They're going to go find somebody else who can supply 728 00:36:03,320 --> 00:36:04,920 Speaker 8: what Kansas farmers. 729 00:36:04,520 --> 00:36:07,680 Speaker 11: Have been supplying. So it is a huge. 730 00:36:07,400 --> 00:36:11,680 Speaker 8: Concern and one that I hope this administration will wake 731 00:36:11,800 --> 00:36:13,880 Speaker 8: up to and finally deal with. 732 00:36:14,040 --> 00:36:17,440 Speaker 2: Because Governor Kelly, we only have one minute left. I 733 00:36:17,480 --> 00:36:20,160 Speaker 2: want to give you an opportunity to Freebut what we're 734 00:36:20,200 --> 00:36:22,399 Speaker 2: going to hear this evening. Donald Trump carried your state 735 00:36:22,440 --> 00:36:25,239 Speaker 2: by more than sixteen points in twenty twenty four. What's 736 00:36:25,239 --> 00:36:28,239 Speaker 2: your message to voters on this one hundredth day of 737 00:36:28,280 --> 00:36:29,480 Speaker 2: the Trump administration. 738 00:36:31,200 --> 00:36:33,680 Speaker 8: Well, you know, there's not a lot to say to 739 00:36:33,760 --> 00:36:35,080 Speaker 8: voters right now. 740 00:36:36,360 --> 00:36:37,840 Speaker 11: You know, we don't have an election. 741 00:36:39,040 --> 00:36:43,320 Speaker 8: You know, midterms aren't until twenty six, another presidential elections 742 00:36:43,360 --> 00:36:48,040 Speaker 8: not until twenty eight. But I would say to all 743 00:36:48,160 --> 00:36:53,240 Speaker 8: citizens that they need to make a lot of noise 744 00:36:53,400 --> 00:36:57,040 Speaker 8: about how this is really impacting them in their lives, 745 00:36:57,239 --> 00:36:59,480 Speaker 8: and they need to make that noise so that they're 746 00:36:59,600 --> 00:37:04,960 Speaker 8: Congress representatives hear them, you know, because what's happening right 747 00:37:04,960 --> 00:37:09,959 Speaker 8: now is impacting people all across this country, whether they're 748 00:37:09,960 --> 00:37:14,200 Speaker 8: talking about what they're thinking about doing with medicaid obviously, 749 00:37:14,320 --> 00:37:19,960 Speaker 8: what's happening with caraffs, and what's happening or governor system 750 00:37:20,120 --> 00:37:22,120 Speaker 8: lots and lots they need to get loud. 751 00:37:22,320 --> 00:37:24,400 Speaker 2: We're glad you could be with us. Laura Kelly, the 752 00:37:24,440 --> 00:37:27,800 Speaker 2: governor of Kansas, chair of the Democratic Governors Association on Bloomberg. 753 00:37:30,080 --> 00:37:33,600 Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch 754 00:37:33,640 --> 00:37:36,480 Speaker 1: us live weekdays at noon and five pm. E's during 755 00:37:36,640 --> 00:37:40,040 Speaker 1: on Apple Cocklay and Android Otto with the Bloomberg Business App. 756 00:37:40,120 --> 00:37:43,120 Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our 757 00:37:43,160 --> 00:37:46,960 Speaker 1: flagship New York station. Just say Alexa play Bloomberg. 758 00:37:47,000 --> 00:37:47,960 Speaker 7: Eleven thirty. 759 00:37:49,200 --> 00:37:51,200 Speaker 12: Not just any Tuesday, of course, the day in which 760 00:37:51,520 --> 00:37:55,239 Speaker 12: President Trump is marking one hundred days back in the 761 00:37:55,280 --> 00:37:57,680 Speaker 12: White House. And of course over the last one hundred days, 762 00:37:57,680 --> 00:38:01,400 Speaker 12: we've seen a lot of action emany from the executive branch, 763 00:38:01,400 --> 00:38:04,160 Speaker 12: from President Trump himself, the signing of hundreds of executive 764 00:38:04,239 --> 00:38:08,960 Speaker 12: orders or memoranda, the implementation of tariffs and the like, 765 00:38:09,360 --> 00:38:13,360 Speaker 12: things that he hasn't really needed Congress to go with 766 00:38:13,480 --> 00:38:16,040 Speaker 12: them on, and Congress hasn't really expressed much interest in 767 00:38:16,360 --> 00:38:18,480 Speaker 12: countering him on that. But the problem, Joe is for 768 00:38:18,560 --> 00:38:21,960 Speaker 12: the next portion of the President's agenda, the next one 769 00:38:22,040 --> 00:38:25,040 Speaker 12: hundred days, he's going to need Congress, that's true, to 770 00:38:25,080 --> 00:38:26,920 Speaker 12: get a lot of what he would like to achieve 771 00:38:27,200 --> 00:38:28,040 Speaker 12: across the finish line. 772 00:38:28,080 --> 00:38:29,799 Speaker 2: Well, if you think about it broadly too, I mean 773 00:38:29,800 --> 00:38:31,680 Speaker 2: that's when trade deals would need to be announced right 774 00:38:31,760 --> 00:38:34,719 Speaker 2: that the ninety day period would be wrapped up. We 775 00:38:34,800 --> 00:38:36,520 Speaker 2: have to deal with Trump tax cuts, and we could 776 00:38:36,560 --> 00:38:39,240 Speaker 2: get an X state this week that lands a debt 777 00:38:39,320 --> 00:38:43,760 Speaker 2: ceiling in the early summer. So yeah, the second hundred 778 00:38:43,880 --> 00:38:46,520 Speaker 2: days could be really interesting here, and it's where we 779 00:38:46,560 --> 00:38:49,520 Speaker 2: start our conversation with our panel as we round the 780 00:38:49,560 --> 00:38:51,880 Speaker 2: first one hundred Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano or here 781 00:38:51,880 --> 00:38:55,960 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Politics contributors. Ricks partner at Stone Cord Capital. Jeanie 782 00:38:56,040 --> 00:38:58,200 Speaker 2: is Senior Democracy Fellow at the Center for the Study 783 00:38:58,200 --> 00:39:02,680 Speaker 2: of the Presidency in Congress. One hundred days, everybody, Rick, 784 00:39:02,719 --> 00:39:06,359 Speaker 2: how much does President Trump have to show for the 785 00:39:06,400 --> 00:39:08,880 Speaker 2: first hundred days? But also how much news does he 786 00:39:08,960 --> 00:39:11,440 Speaker 2: need to make? Because there is an expectation he's going 787 00:39:11,480 --> 00:39:14,719 Speaker 2: to make an announcement, no mystery that he's in the 788 00:39:14,760 --> 00:39:17,640 Speaker 2: suburbs of Detroit here to make an announcement on auto 789 00:39:17,880 --> 00:39:20,560 Speaker 2: tariffs that we just heard from the White House. The 790 00:39:20,560 --> 00:39:23,240 Speaker 2: auto industry will be happy with the announcement, some relief 791 00:39:23,280 --> 00:39:26,279 Speaker 2: on tariffs that will prevent them from being stacked on 792 00:39:26,360 --> 00:39:28,839 Speaker 2: top of each other. Here, Rick, does he need to 793 00:39:28,840 --> 00:39:30,600 Speaker 2: bring the goods to Michigan. 794 00:39:32,400 --> 00:39:34,360 Speaker 14: Yeah, First of all, I'm not sure it's a happy 795 00:39:34,440 --> 00:39:37,000 Speaker 14: one hundred days. I mean it's a pretty sober one 796 00:39:37,040 --> 00:39:39,920 Speaker 14: hundred days. You know, what everybody thought was going to 797 00:39:40,000 --> 00:39:44,480 Speaker 14: be open season on you know, investments and mergers and 798 00:39:44,560 --> 00:39:50,720 Speaker 14: IOPs and you know, less government regulation and more entrepreneurship 799 00:39:51,000 --> 00:39:54,360 Speaker 14: has turned into exactly the opposite, real serious questions about 800 00:39:54,480 --> 00:39:58,600 Speaker 14: global trade, attacking the Fed's independence. I mean this is 801 00:39:58,719 --> 00:40:01,400 Speaker 14: this has had a real salute or effect on the 802 00:40:01,440 --> 00:40:05,360 Speaker 14: economy and SMP down eight percent, worse than any present 803 00:40:05,480 --> 00:40:09,560 Speaker 14: sin since Gerald Ford in his first hundred days. And 804 00:40:09,600 --> 00:40:12,160 Speaker 14: we know what was going on back then. So the 805 00:40:12,239 --> 00:40:16,720 Speaker 14: reality is that I think today he's got a chance 806 00:40:17,239 --> 00:40:20,360 Speaker 14: to try and start peeling some of that back. Obviously, 807 00:40:20,400 --> 00:40:24,040 Speaker 14: they are forecasting release of some of these tariffs on 808 00:40:24,120 --> 00:40:29,760 Speaker 14: parts for car manufacturers. Good start, you kind of scratch 809 00:40:29,800 --> 00:40:31,319 Speaker 14: your head and go, okay, well, why did we do 810 00:40:31,400 --> 00:40:33,879 Speaker 14: that to begin with? I mean, like, you know, these 811 00:40:33,880 --> 00:40:36,200 Speaker 14: are parts that all go into automobiles that are going 812 00:40:36,280 --> 00:40:39,040 Speaker 14: to be made in the US ultimately, anyway, why did 813 00:40:39,120 --> 00:40:40,280 Speaker 14: we put tariffs. 814 00:40:39,920 --> 00:40:40,759 Speaker 15: On him to begin with? 815 00:40:41,000 --> 00:40:42,920 Speaker 16: And so I think there's going to be a lot 816 00:40:42,960 --> 00:40:45,360 Speaker 16: of that head scratching because hopefully this is the beginning 817 00:40:45,400 --> 00:40:47,879 Speaker 16: of a whole series of things, including, as you point out, 818 00:40:48,440 --> 00:40:52,440 Speaker 16: deals that we're making with other countries that will lower 819 00:40:52,520 --> 00:40:58,040 Speaker 16: the reciprocity tariffs, that reciprocal tariffs that were already put on. 820 00:40:58,520 --> 00:41:00,399 Speaker 14: Well, you know, if we're going to cut the those deals, 821 00:41:00,400 --> 00:41:02,080 Speaker 14: why didn't we just reach out and say, hey, we're 822 00:41:02,080 --> 00:41:04,239 Speaker 14: going to cut a new deal with you before we 823 00:41:04,360 --> 00:41:08,040 Speaker 14: put these reciprocal tariffs on. I honestly don't really get 824 00:41:08,040 --> 00:41:11,080 Speaker 14: the strategy, but it's not working with the American public. 825 00:41:11,440 --> 00:41:14,200 Speaker 14: But tonight maybe we see the clawback on some of that. 826 00:41:16,480 --> 00:41:19,120 Speaker 12: Well, and I wonder how much tonight we'll focus not 827 00:41:19,160 --> 00:41:21,760 Speaker 12: just on tariffs, Genie, but the other kind of domestically 828 00:41:21,800 --> 00:41:26,080 Speaker 12: oriented efforts that the President has undertaken, in part with 829 00:41:26,200 --> 00:41:29,840 Speaker 12: Elon Musk at his side, like the dramatic reduction in 830 00:41:29,880 --> 00:41:34,399 Speaker 12: the federal government, the complete dismantling of agencies like USAID 831 00:41:34,600 --> 00:41:38,600 Speaker 12: or the CFPB. Arguably, how much, Genie is his one 832 00:41:38,680 --> 00:41:41,560 Speaker 12: hundred days actually marked by something that could be, if 833 00:41:41,600 --> 00:41:45,080 Speaker 12: not a permanent change to the federal bureaucracy, something that 834 00:41:45,120 --> 00:41:48,240 Speaker 12: would take years to unwind even once he leaves office, 835 00:41:48,360 --> 00:41:50,920 Speaker 12: or rather than unwinding, perhaps rebuilding. 836 00:41:52,440 --> 00:41:55,040 Speaker 15: Yeah, much of what he's done can take a long time. 837 00:41:55,080 --> 00:41:58,040 Speaker 15: You know, things he's done via EO, we usually say, well, 838 00:41:58,520 --> 00:42:01,920 Speaker 15: a new president could walk that back, but that's harder 839 00:42:01,960 --> 00:42:04,680 Speaker 15: in those areas you're talking about, Kayley, like the cuts 840 00:42:04,760 --> 00:42:08,440 Speaker 15: in DOGE. How do you bring a workforce back if 841 00:42:08,480 --> 00:42:11,080 Speaker 15: you want to do that? How do you rebuild departments? 842 00:42:11,080 --> 00:42:14,560 Speaker 15: I mean, just take USA as an example. You know 843 00:42:14,760 --> 00:42:17,719 Speaker 15: that's going to be a big, big challenge. And you know, 844 00:42:17,800 --> 00:42:21,040 Speaker 15: as I look at what the president is facing, he 845 00:42:21,280 --> 00:42:24,000 Speaker 15: certainly is not going to want to focus on the 846 00:42:24,040 --> 00:42:29,040 Speaker 15: economy tonight because the economy, according to every poll you 847 00:42:29,080 --> 00:42:31,840 Speaker 15: look at, is in disarrays. So he's gonna want to 848 00:42:31,880 --> 00:42:35,960 Speaker 15: talk about things like immigration and DOGE. But he's not 849 00:42:36,040 --> 00:42:39,879 Speaker 15: incredibly popular on that either, and so this is going 850 00:42:39,920 --> 00:42:42,840 Speaker 15: to be difficult. You know, Carl Rove got on Fox 851 00:42:42,960 --> 00:42:47,200 Speaker 15: News and said, the president has a huge problem, and 852 00:42:47,239 --> 00:42:50,319 Speaker 15: that is number one. His support as it pertains to 853 00:42:50,360 --> 00:42:53,359 Speaker 15: the economy, both short term and long term, has all 854 00:42:53,440 --> 00:42:57,080 Speaker 15: but plummeted and is in very bad shape. And Carl Grove, 855 00:42:57,120 --> 00:42:59,840 Speaker 15: as we know, is no liberal. So how do you 856 00:43:00,080 --> 00:43:03,040 Speaker 15: walk back from that? Very tough? And then I look 857 00:43:03,080 --> 00:43:05,839 Speaker 15: at the Atlantic Interview where that. The reporters asked him 858 00:43:05,880 --> 00:43:09,160 Speaker 15: point blank, is there any red line, any sign of 859 00:43:09,200 --> 00:43:12,799 Speaker 15: the US economy plummeting where you would say, Okay, enough 860 00:43:12,840 --> 00:43:14,440 Speaker 15: is enough, and I'm going to walk back from my 861 00:43:14,520 --> 00:43:18,120 Speaker 15: commitment to tariffs. And he said, no, there's no red line. 862 00:43:18,200 --> 00:43:21,160 Speaker 15: I've been committed to this for thirty years. Nothing could 863 00:43:21,239 --> 00:43:24,799 Speaker 15: change my mind. So that is a very soberat reality 864 00:43:25,000 --> 00:43:27,080 Speaker 15: as we look out there, and so I think it 865 00:43:27,160 --> 00:43:29,160 Speaker 15: leaves him with a real challenge tonight. 866 00:43:30,440 --> 00:43:34,319 Speaker 2: Well, Rick, democrats are counting the ways here. The top 867 00:43:34,360 --> 00:43:37,239 Speaker 2: Democrats on the House and Senate Appropriations Committee are out 868 00:43:37,239 --> 00:43:39,799 Speaker 2: with a letter here. They've even created a tracker to 869 00:43:39,880 --> 00:43:44,360 Speaker 2: determine the billions of dollars in funding allocated by Congress 870 00:43:44,880 --> 00:43:49,000 Speaker 2: that has been blocked or withheld by this administration. This 871 00:43:49,080 --> 00:43:52,840 Speaker 2: is four hundred and thirty billion dollars according to Rosa 872 00:43:52,840 --> 00:43:56,480 Speaker 2: Deloro and Senator Patty Murray, four hundred and thirty billion 873 00:43:56,520 --> 00:44:00,239 Speaker 2: dollars for medical research, disaster relief aid to farmers. I 874 00:44:00,239 --> 00:44:02,840 Speaker 2: could go on here. It's almost like they're taking a 875 00:44:02,880 --> 00:44:05,600 Speaker 2: page out of Elon Musk. Remember the wall of receipts. 876 00:44:05,719 --> 00:44:08,520 Speaker 2: We now have a tracker to determine the money that's 877 00:44:08,600 --> 00:44:12,080 Speaker 2: not being spent. Is this the type of strategy that works? 878 00:44:13,360 --> 00:44:15,200 Speaker 14: Yeah, I think it's important to realize they're kind of 879 00:44:15,239 --> 00:44:18,600 Speaker 14: like three buckets that everybody's talking about. There's that Doge 880 00:44:18,600 --> 00:44:21,360 Speaker 14: bucket that went from we're going to cut two trillion 881 00:44:21,400 --> 00:44:23,480 Speaker 14: dollars out of the budget to now we're going to 882 00:44:23,520 --> 00:44:26,560 Speaker 14: cut one hundred and fifty billion, right, and these are cuts, 883 00:44:26,600 --> 00:44:30,080 Speaker 14: these are things that will likely not come back. Then 884 00:44:30,120 --> 00:44:32,919 Speaker 14: there's this four hundred and thirty billion, which are things 885 00:44:32,920 --> 00:44:35,439 Speaker 14: they're just they're authorized to spend the money on, they're 886 00:44:35,520 --> 00:44:37,840 Speaker 14: just not spending it. Those checks aren't going out, the 887 00:44:38,719 --> 00:44:41,560 Speaker 14: funds aren't made available to the programs that have been 888 00:44:41,680 --> 00:44:45,319 Speaker 14: authorized by Congress to do. And that's what Congress is tracking, saying, hey, 889 00:44:45,680 --> 00:44:48,120 Speaker 14: this stuff is supposed to be done. There's a third 890 00:44:48,200 --> 00:44:51,160 Speaker 14: bucket that Russ Vot's about to send to Congress, which 891 00:44:51,239 --> 00:44:55,800 Speaker 14: is nine billion dollars of recisions. That means, here's money 892 00:44:55,800 --> 00:44:58,920 Speaker 14: you gave us, we're giving it back this we're not 893 00:44:58,920 --> 00:45:02,040 Speaker 14: going to spend that money. And so like, there is 894 00:45:02,120 --> 00:45:06,239 Speaker 14: a massive reduction in spending by the federal government going on, 895 00:45:06,600 --> 00:45:09,440 Speaker 14: none of which we can really track effectively right now. 896 00:45:09,760 --> 00:45:11,719 Speaker 14: And By the way, we talk as if the first 897 00:45:11,800 --> 00:45:14,799 Speaker 14: hundred days is at the end of the administration. We 898 00:45:14,960 --> 00:45:21,279 Speaker 14: have three years and four hundred days left to this 899 00:45:21,440 --> 00:45:25,120 Speaker 14: administration and we're just getting started. So I think you've 900 00:45:25,200 --> 00:45:27,560 Speaker 14: anticipate this fight continuing for a long time. 901 00:45:29,920 --> 00:45:34,400 Speaker 12: Well, it certainly is incredible to consider the more than 902 00:45:34,440 --> 00:45:35,759 Speaker 12: thirteen hundred days that we. 903 00:45:35,800 --> 00:45:36,560 Speaker 7: Still have left. 904 00:45:36,560 --> 00:45:38,600 Speaker 12: But of course the President may be thinking about a 905 00:45:38,680 --> 00:45:42,560 Speaker 12: kind of more immediate deadline here, Genie is he wants 906 00:45:42,600 --> 00:45:45,080 Speaker 12: to make sure he can get a maximum amount done 907 00:45:45,160 --> 00:45:48,440 Speaker 12: with control of both chambers of Congress. Right now Republicans 908 00:45:48,480 --> 00:45:51,600 Speaker 12: have control that could change after the midterms next year, 909 00:45:51,640 --> 00:45:53,800 Speaker 12: which is why they're trying to force through this budget 910 00:45:53,840 --> 00:45:58,240 Speaker 12: reconciliation package with his tax cuts included, as quickly as possible. 911 00:45:58,239 --> 00:46:01,480 Speaker 12: The Treasury Secretary says, now July fourth is really the 912 00:46:01,520 --> 00:46:02,160 Speaker 12: target to. 913 00:46:02,120 --> 00:46:02,759 Speaker 7: Get this done. 914 00:46:02,880 --> 00:46:05,560 Speaker 12: It had previously been touted by the Speaker of the House. 915 00:46:05,640 --> 00:46:07,480 Speaker 12: Is something that would be accomplished at least in that 916 00:46:07,600 --> 00:46:11,040 Speaker 12: chamber by Memorial Day, knowing that the debt ceiling could 917 00:46:11,080 --> 00:46:14,080 Speaker 12: be a factor in here as well. Is this really 918 00:46:14,120 --> 00:46:16,680 Speaker 12: going to be something that can be completed by the 919 00:46:16,719 --> 00:46:19,600 Speaker 12: August recess? Given the difficulty of some of the subject 920 00:46:19,680 --> 00:46:22,160 Speaker 12: matter that Republicans are going to have to tackle in 921 00:46:22,200 --> 00:46:22,920 Speaker 12: the coming weeks. 922 00:46:24,160 --> 00:46:26,920 Speaker 15: Yeah, they really want to just ruin your summer, Kaylee. 923 00:46:27,040 --> 00:46:29,520 Speaker 15: Forget about the beach. You're going to be working, work, 924 00:46:29,520 --> 00:46:32,640 Speaker 15: and work in either Memorial Day July fourth. It's going 925 00:46:32,719 --> 00:46:35,239 Speaker 15: to be tough either way. I think, in an odd way, 926 00:46:35,360 --> 00:46:37,719 Speaker 15: the fact that the debt ceiling they may come up 927 00:46:37,760 --> 00:46:41,040 Speaker 15: to it may light a fire under them. But either way, 928 00:46:41,120 --> 00:46:43,800 Speaker 15: there is going to be a lot of inter party 929 00:46:43,920 --> 00:46:47,760 Speaker 15: squabbling on these issues because we've got these small groups 930 00:46:47,760 --> 00:46:52,000 Speaker 15: of Republicans who are committed and they, unlike Donald Trump, 931 00:46:52,000 --> 00:46:54,680 Speaker 15: when it comes to tariffs, they don't they do have 932 00:46:54,760 --> 00:46:57,200 Speaker 15: a redline that they won't go over. I mean, we 933 00:46:57,200 --> 00:46:59,880 Speaker 15: were just talking about clawbacks, and you've even got a 934 00:47:00,080 --> 00:47:03,719 Speaker 15: group of Republicans in Congress who say, we don't want 935 00:47:03,760 --> 00:47:07,960 Speaker 15: clawbacks of the IRA quite frankly, we like those investments 936 00:47:08,040 --> 00:47:11,520 Speaker 15: that Joe Biden made. Then you've got the other deficit hawks, 937 00:47:11,560 --> 00:47:13,880 Speaker 15: and then of course you've got the folks on Salt, 938 00:47:13,920 --> 00:47:16,040 Speaker 15: which you know is one of my personal favorites. Then 939 00:47:16,320 --> 00:47:19,040 Speaker 15: you know, you've also got folks who are saying we're 940 00:47:19,080 --> 00:47:22,800 Speaker 15: gonna draw a red line as it pertains to something else. 941 00:47:22,880 --> 00:47:26,280 Speaker 15: And so these groups are gonna have to come together 942 00:47:26,360 --> 00:47:28,560 Speaker 15: and figure this out, and it's gonna be hard to 943 00:47:28,600 --> 00:47:31,280 Speaker 15: do in a short period of time. And of course 944 00:47:31,320 --> 00:47:34,200 Speaker 15: Donald Trump is running some right smack dab into a 945 00:47:34,280 --> 00:47:38,680 Speaker 15: Madisonian government. It's all about divided power. Everything he's done 946 00:47:38,680 --> 00:47:42,719 Speaker 15: this first hundred days has been unilateral executive power. Now 947 00:47:42,719 --> 00:47:44,799 Speaker 15: he's got to deal with this other branch he's been 948 00:47:44,840 --> 00:47:47,239 Speaker 15: able to run over for some time. But if they 949 00:47:47,280 --> 00:47:49,839 Speaker 15: look at the same pole askar Rova's looking at, they 950 00:47:49,880 --> 00:47:52,760 Speaker 15: may decide it's not in their interest and they indeed 951 00:47:52,960 --> 00:47:55,160 Speaker 15: could lose their seats if they go along with what 952 00:47:55,239 --> 00:47:59,560 Speaker 15: the president is proposing. So I think July fourth is ambitious, 953 00:48:00,239 --> 00:48:02,719 Speaker 15: you know. But Scott Besten's a smart guy. Maybe he 954 00:48:02,840 --> 00:48:05,880 Speaker 15: knows something I don't, But I think it's an ambitious timeline. 955 00:48:06,840 --> 00:48:11,680 Speaker 2: Does that unilateral approach rick that genie describes the playbook 956 00:48:11,760 --> 00:48:13,839 Speaker 2: for the next one hundred days? 957 00:48:14,760 --> 00:48:15,719 Speaker 15: Yeah, I don't think so. 958 00:48:16,880 --> 00:48:17,080 Speaker 13: You know. 959 00:48:17,120 --> 00:48:19,279 Speaker 14: Look, I mean, even though Donald Trump did a lot 960 00:48:19,280 --> 00:48:21,920 Speaker 14: of things through executive order, which you'll continue to do 961 00:48:22,000 --> 00:48:24,560 Speaker 14: throughout his presidency, all they do is pick up the 962 00:48:24,560 --> 00:48:26,919 Speaker 14: front page of any newspaper tale. I'm going to issue 963 00:48:26,920 --> 00:48:29,400 Speaker 14: an executive order on that today. That seems to be 964 00:48:29,480 --> 00:48:32,880 Speaker 14: his MO. But remember, Congress gave him his cabinet. There 965 00:48:32,880 --> 00:48:35,440 Speaker 14: were hearings, there were the votes in the House in 966 00:48:35,480 --> 00:48:41,720 Speaker 14: the Senate to confirm every member of his administration's cabinet. 967 00:48:41,760 --> 00:48:45,640 Speaker 14: And they members had lots of opportunity there to hang 968 00:48:45,719 --> 00:48:50,239 Speaker 14: people up and make it quote worth their while on 969 00:48:50,280 --> 00:48:52,319 Speaker 14: a policy basis, but they didn't do it. And now 970 00:48:52,320 --> 00:48:56,879 Speaker 14: they're all rallying around, you know, the big, beautiful Reconciliation bill, 971 00:48:57,080 --> 00:48:59,799 Speaker 14: and I have no doubt that's what will become law. 972 00:49:01,520 --> 00:49:01,879 Speaker 7: All right. 973 00:49:02,000 --> 00:49:05,440 Speaker 12: Rick Davis and Jeanie Shanzano our political panel, thank you 974 00:49:05,480 --> 00:49:07,479 Speaker 12: so much joining us as we mark one hundred days 975 00:49:07,480 --> 00:49:09,680 Speaker 12: in office for President Trump and look ahead to his 976 00:49:09,719 --> 00:49:18,120 Speaker 12: big speech in Michigan tonight, again slated for six pm. 977 00:49:18,200 --> 00:49:21,399 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make 978 00:49:21,440 --> 00:49:24,360 Speaker 2: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify, 979 00:49:24,480 --> 00:49:27,040 Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find 980 00:49:27,120 --> 00:49:30,360 Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC at noontime Eastern 981 00:49:30,640 --> 00:49:32,080 Speaker 2: at Bloomberg dot com.