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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network podcast. Oh now do you bill?

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Speaker 2: Whose guys are good? Hello everybody, and welcome to the

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Speaker 2: Action Network podcast. This is a special Stanley Cup playoffs

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Speaker 2: betting update.

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Speaker 1: I'm Michael leboff.

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Speaker 2: I am the hockey editor here at Action and also

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Speaker 2: the co host of the Action Networks hockey podcast Line Change.

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Speaker 2: You can listen to us by and sometimes try weekly

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Speaker 2: during the playoffs. That's me in so many sports. But

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Speaker 2: today I have our NHL expert Nick Martin on with me.

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Speaker 2: We're going to talk a little bit about the Rangers

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Speaker 2: and Lightning series. That series just gotten added up at

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Speaker 2: two games apiece. Then we'll look ahead towards what a

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Speaker 2: potential Stanley Cup matchup could look like between the Lightning

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Speaker 2: and Aves. Rangers, Aves, maybe some Consmith picks, and we'll

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Speaker 2: just kind of touch on it all, try to get

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Speaker 2: you guys set up before the Cup final starts next week.

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Speaker 2: We will have a Stanley Cup betting preview when the

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Speaker 2: matchup is set as well, so look out for that

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Speaker 2: on the Action Network feed.

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Speaker 1: So Nick talk.

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Speaker 2: Rangers and Lightning. We're looking at game five now. Rangers

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Speaker 2: they win the first two of the series. Lightning looked

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Speaker 2: all out of sorts coming off the nine day layoff.

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Speaker 2: They get back home, they rattle off two impressive wins

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Speaker 2: in a row. Tampa now minus one twenty five in

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Speaker 2: Game five, Rangers plus one oh five. For the series line,

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Speaker 2: Tampa's minus one fifty five. So despite having to win

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Speaker 2: or two other than three possible games taking place at

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Speaker 2: Massive Square Garden, the Lightning still are a decent favorite

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Speaker 2: here after the two impressive wins.

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Speaker 1: There's some injury.

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Speaker 2: Stuff we got to talk about. There's some other stuff

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Speaker 2: we should get into, but let's just talk right now

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Speaker 2: about Game.

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Speaker 1: Five and the line. The Lightning.

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Speaker 2: We're minus one twenty five in game one, minus one

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Speaker 2: thirty in Game two, so it really isn't that surprising

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Speaker 2: that we're going to see this line open Tampa minus

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Speaker 2: one twenty five for Game five.

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Speaker 1: But I do have a feeling we're going to.

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Speaker 2: See some money come in on the Lightning considering the

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Speaker 2: performances they just had and now that the Rangers are

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Speaker 2: dealing with some injuries.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, for sure, I would definitely lean towards the Lightning,

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Speaker 3: and I can see how I think that's the sharpest side. Admittedly,

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Speaker 3: I've been burned with the Rangers ridiculous home and road

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Speaker 3: splits this postseason. I've had a bit of a hard

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Speaker 3: time accepting that they're just this much better at MSG.

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Speaker 3: But I do think we could see in the first

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Speaker 3: two games that there was kind of some miscues that

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Speaker 3: we wouldn't typically see from this Tampa team, and I

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Speaker 3: think once those were cleaned up, like we've just seen

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Speaker 3: Vassilevsky dominate the last two and it's helped so much.

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Speaker 3: I was kind of laughing by hearing all the takes

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Speaker 3: that Vasilevsky had supposedly been solved and all the goals

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Speaker 3: high blocker, and I really just thought like a big

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Speaker 3: part of it was, you know, if you were reviewed

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Speaker 3: and credit to New York, like they generated a ton

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Speaker 3: of high quality chances in those two games in MSG.

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Speaker 3: But I was really confident that he would bounce back

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Speaker 3: once he was given the right play in front of him,

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Speaker 3: and not just goals he was never supposed to save

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Speaker 3: to begin with, and I think we've seen exactly that.

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Speaker 3: And then yeah, obviously we'll touch on the injury stuff,

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Speaker 3: but if the kid line is going to be broken up,

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Speaker 3: that's clearly been a huge game changer for the Rangers,

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Speaker 3: and that kind of leaves them with just one line

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Speaker 3: you're really worried about breaking through with the offense.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so those injuries are Ryan Strom. He missed most

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Speaker 2: of Game three, or at least the second half of

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Speaker 2: Game three, and then all of Game four with an injury.

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Speaker 2: They won't say what it is, but we can all

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Speaker 2: kind of suspect that it was a something with his leg.

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Speaker 1: He took it. It was like a weird, freak, no

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Speaker 1: contact kind of injury.

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Speaker 2: And then there were I mean, he took warm ups

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Speaker 2: and dard Loant kept saying that, I mean, you can't

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Speaker 2: believe anything coaches say at this point of the year,

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Speaker 2: but he kept saying that he thought Strome was going

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Speaker 2: to play, but he was deemed not fit.

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Speaker 1: Enough to play after warm ups.

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Speaker 2: And then midway through game four, you Philip Pedal at

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Speaker 2: the center of that kid line with Capo Cocco and

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Speaker 2: Alexis Lafrenier.

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Speaker 1: He gets hurt.

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Speaker 2: So this is why, like the playoffs are so interesting,

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Speaker 2: Philip Pedo being out in a regular season game, you

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Speaker 2: and I wouldn't spend more than thirty seconds thinking about it.

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Speaker 2: And like when we're handicapping, if it was Rangers versus

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Speaker 2: Sabers Rangers versus like Dallas Stars on like a Tuesday night,

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Speaker 2: But in this situation it matters was because of the

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Speaker 2: way that the matchup works out and the fact you're

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Speaker 2: playing same team over and over again, right, So if

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Speaker 2: he's out, like you said, it breaks up everything. And

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Speaker 2: if Strome is out, orf Strom is even dinged up.

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Speaker 2: You're now talking about your second and third line center

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Speaker 2: at the very least playing less than you know, near

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Speaker 2: one hundred percent. So those are two big injuries to

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Speaker 2: keep an eye on, especially if they compound, right like

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Speaker 2: one injury is one thing, but when when you have

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Speaker 2: the injury luck, that ends up clustering, which, by the way,

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Speaker 2: the Rangers have had tremendous injury luck throughout this entire playoffs.

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Speaker 2: I think tonight was the first game since Game four

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Speaker 2: of the Penguin series where they were missing a player

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Speaker 2: from their top eleven, top six forwards, top four defenseman,

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Speaker 2: or starting goalie. And they've played every team that they've

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Speaker 2: played from Game one to Round one through tonight, and

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Speaker 2: including tonight, the other team has missing at least one.

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Speaker 2: So it's not like, you know, the Ranger has been

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Speaker 2: really unlucky with injuries. This is their first kind of

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Speaker 2: injury crisis of the postseason. I do think that there's

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Speaker 2: a chance though, that this Lightning line maybe gets out

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Speaker 2: of control based off of that stuff. Right, Like, like

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Speaker 2: I said, minus one third in Game two, that was

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Speaker 2: coming off of a bad performance in Game one where

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Speaker 2: everyone expected, Okay, they'll bounce back. They clearly hadn't found

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Speaker 2: their game yet, and at some point in the middle

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Speaker 2: of the second period of Game two, they started to

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Speaker 2: look more like the Lightning.

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Speaker 1: So if this line gets too much.

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Speaker 2: Higher, you know, past that one thirty, I think minus

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Speaker 2: one forty is you're really pushing it with the Lightning

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Speaker 2: price at that point, and then you'd have to start

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Speaker 2: looking towards the Rangers.

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Speaker 3: I think, yeah, for sure, especially because we know like

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Speaker 3: it's going to take a ton to break through on Schusterkin,

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Speaker 3: and unless the Rangers really allow a lot of those

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Speaker 3: complete breakdowns where the Lightning are just always going to

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Speaker 3: score the goal, I don't really I don't think i'd

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Speaker 3: see a lot of value in that. I think one

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Speaker 3: play that is going to continue to hold merit. I've

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Speaker 3: been pretty firm on the storyline all series long that

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Speaker 3: the under five and a half would be a good play,

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Speaker 3: and I think the under in that game should still

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Speaker 3: remain a really strong play. I think it's just at

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Speaker 3: a point where we're both seeing both teams really sharpen

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Speaker 3: up defensively. Obviously, both goalies are in elite form, and

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Speaker 3: I think I think it's just for a lot of

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Speaker 3: reason it's going to be hard for that one to

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Speaker 3: break open, and especially because I don't think we'll see

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Speaker 3: Tampa manage those kinds of mistakes they made the first

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Speaker 3: two times in MSG, so they're going to play better

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Speaker 3: and not allow a big total. I think we know

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Speaker 3: in New York will lock it down. They'll find a

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Speaker 3: way to hang around. So I think there's a lot

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Speaker 3: of ways that we can hit on the under again.

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Speaker 2: And it hasn't hit yet, but sportsbooks have been dealing

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Speaker 2: will the game go to overtime where the draw sixty

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Speaker 2: minute draw at like plus three twenty plus three thirty

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Speaker 2: and it should keep, you know, incrementally going up. Since

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Speaker 2: we haven't seen an overtime game yet, I do think

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Speaker 2: that that holds value too, because you're talking about two

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Speaker 2: teams that should.

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Speaker 1: Run away with a game.

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Speaker 2: I think what we saw tonight from Tampa Bay is

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Speaker 2: basically the extent of what a running away with a

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Speaker 2: game in the series would look like from now on,

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Speaker 2: because like you said, both both teams are in good

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Speaker 2: defensive form, both goalies are on, and it's just you

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Speaker 2: wouldn't expect Tampa to make those kind of mistakes again,

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Speaker 2: so I do like that as well. I think targeting

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Speaker 2: that if John Cooper keeps that first line together, the Pilot,

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Speaker 2: stamp Cost Kucher upline that he reunited after games one

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Speaker 2: and two, those three guys are very live in terms

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Speaker 2: of player props as well, because they're just they're just

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Speaker 2: generating opportunities. I mean, Pilot's been terrific the past few games,

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Speaker 2: Kutra has been terrific. So it could be stamp Cost

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Speaker 2: at this point for Game five because he'll probably be

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Speaker 2: the one with the most value since he's been a

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Speaker 2: little bit quieter than his colleagues there.

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Speaker 1: All right, from there, let's move on.

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Speaker 2: To kind of a bigger picture look at the playoffs

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Speaker 2: as they stand three teams left. The Avalanche are minus

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Speaker 2: two twenty to win the Stanley Cup coming off of

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Speaker 2: a four game sweep of the Oilers.

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Speaker 1: The Lightning now plus three fifty. The Rangers six to one.

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Speaker 2: One thing I'll do want to ask you about the

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Speaker 2: Avalanche is Noskadre's out the Avalanche now he was. I

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Speaker 2: like he A lot of times when you're asking your

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Speaker 2: second line center to be more effective than productive, I

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Speaker 2: think that goes for basically your second your middle six centers.

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Speaker 2: But Cadri the season was both those things. He was

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Speaker 2: incredibly effective at his whatever role he had to play

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Speaker 2: in a game, but he's also productive. It doesn't seem

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Speaker 2: like it's going to be as big a crisis as

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Speaker 2: this would have been maybe last year, because it looks

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Speaker 2: like Miko Ranton and Can just kind of slid over,

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Speaker 2: and they have the winger depth to make sure that

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Speaker 2: with Artery l Luckingon and Nachew skin like, those guys

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Speaker 2: should be able to fill in fine around Ranton in

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Speaker 2: to make sure that things don't come undone.

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Speaker 1: But does it give you any cause for concern.

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Speaker 2: That without Cadrey maybe, and also the goaltending situation there

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Speaker 2: is a little whilebly so if you are trying to

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Speaker 2: pull holes in the Avalanche and make a case for

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Speaker 2: one of the other two teams, can you do it? Yeah?

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Speaker 3: I definitely think you can. I mean as someone who's

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Speaker 3: been very pro Avalanche all year. I don't think I

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Speaker 3: would jump in on that series number because either way,

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Speaker 3: like whether they get stirk In or bat CELESTI like

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Speaker 3: that is a massive goalie discrepancy to cover. And as

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Speaker 3: much as I think Oilers did look really good through

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Speaker 3: the first two rounds, I think we kind of knew

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Speaker 3: all year they had those flaws, and I think that

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Speaker 3: them showing through is a big part of Colorado. Then

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Speaker 3: Emo to do what they did and you know, hang

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Speaker 3: in there with Francius, but playing Tampa and possibly New York,

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Speaker 3: it's gonna be a lot harder to cover that up

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Speaker 3: where it's you're probably not just scoring at will when

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Speaker 3: you have one of these miscues or maybe a softer goal.

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Speaker 3: So I do think there's definitely some reason as to

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Speaker 3: why Tampa or even New York could could find a

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Speaker 3: way to claw into the series.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, and then there's also going to be the Rest

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Speaker 2: versus Russ stuff. We just saw it with Tampa and

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Speaker 2: the Rangers. I do think so the situation needs more context.

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Speaker 2: You know, not every Rest versus Rost spot is the same.

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Speaker 2: It's just like in a lot of things et betting,

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Speaker 2: this one, I don't I want to penalize or be

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Speaker 2: as worried about Colorado as I was about the Lightning

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Speaker 2: before game one because the lightning so much of the

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Speaker 2: Lightning success hinges on Bezilevski playing at an elite level,

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Speaker 2: and a nine day layoff for a goalie of his

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Speaker 2: stature is not not a good thing, right, Like you

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Speaker 2: want that guy to be playing every other day, like

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Speaker 2: with Franco and Campa, who he needs to get healthy.

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Speaker 1: It's just not as big a deal.

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Speaker 2: So I think the way to attack that Stanley Cup

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Speaker 2: Final series will be to try to beat Colorado on

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Speaker 2: game one, and if it does come through, then you're

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Speaker 2: looking at a pretty good discount going forward.

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Speaker 1: Now onto Sleeper.

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Speaker 4: Sleeper is the fastest growing fantasy platform today with millions

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Speaker 4: I use it for mine. It's a game changing product

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Speaker 4: super simple. First, in any sport, cho's two or more

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Speaker 4: players that you like and pick their over or under

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Speaker 4: for example number of points in basketball or hits in baseball.

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Speaker 4: Then choose the amount of money you want to enter

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Speaker 4: into the contest. If you pick correctly, you can win

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Speaker 4: anywhere from two to over twenty times the amount you

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Speaker 4: put in.

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Speaker 1: The main reason I'm.

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Speaker 4: Excited about over Under on Sleeper is that it's the

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Speaker 4: only app where I can join my buddies contest and

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Speaker 4: play together. It's got a built in group chat where

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Speaker 4: I can see and copy my friend's picks with the

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Speaker 4: top of a button. Insanely fun to ride it out together.

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Speaker 4: So stop what you're doing and download Sleeper now to

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Speaker 4: play their new over undergame. Have fun with your friends

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Speaker 4: and make some money on your mobile phone. Join our

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Speaker 4: listener group on Sleeper at sleeper dot com slash action

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Speaker 4: and Sleeper will automatically match your first deposit up to

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Speaker 4: action and you'll get a one hundred dollars match on

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Speaker 4: your first deposit. Terms and conditions apply. See Sleepers Terms

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Speaker 4: of Use for details. Okay, back to the show.

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Speaker 2: All right, let's quickly close the show. We'll talk a

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Speaker 2: little bit about the conspipe market. We talked before the

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Speaker 2: playoffs started about the strategy of There are certain players

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Speaker 2: that if a team like the Rangers is going to

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Speaker 2: win the Stanley Cup, Ego Shisterkin is going to win

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Speaker 2: the CONTs. Spike, I'm gonna flip it over to you.

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Speaker 2: What is your shortlist looking like for these three teams?

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Speaker 3: I mean, I think with the Rangers personally at this point,

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Speaker 3: I wouldn't say I'd be playing this. But if you're

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Speaker 3: in New York, guy, and you want to play the

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Speaker 3: Rangers at this point, I think this is the most

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Speaker 3: black and white example we're going to see, where you

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Speaker 3: just play just and if somehow, like at the start

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Speaker 3: of this series, he was still or he's at plus

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Speaker 3: one thousand and compared to the New York I think

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Speaker 3: we're six plus six fifty to win. And I think

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Speaker 3: if you weren't going to play that, I think it's

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Speaker 3: just it's such an obvious one that if they win,

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Speaker 3: it's got to be him even and if he goes

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Speaker 3: out somehow, I don't think they're winning. So it's just

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Speaker 3: there's almost no way where I can see it going.

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Speaker 3: So I think that's an obvious one if you wanted

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Speaker 3: to get in on New York. I think Colorado is

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Speaker 3: pretty tough. We actually talked about it started the playoff

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Speaker 3: how it could be really split between McKinnon and mccar

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Speaker 3: And I think right now, obviously mccar is leading him,

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Speaker 3: but it's still at the point where I think it'd

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Speaker 3: be hard to differentiate which guy could come out of

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Speaker 3: it in the Cup final, and then I wouldn't touch

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Speaker 3: either of their goalies, and then the third one I

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Speaker 3: would personally always play Basilevski. Looking towards Tampa, I do

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Speaker 3: think he's got a big enough edge that he's going

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Speaker 3: to be able to hold off Kuchrov, who's probably sneaking

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Speaker 3: in there, and Headman, and especially the way the two

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Speaker 3: games I think in this series two or three games

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Speaker 3: versus New York can go, they'll probably boost his numbers

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Speaker 3: even more. It could be kind of close those final

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Speaker 3: two games versus Toronto and Florida, And I do think

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Speaker 3: he's kind of already the front runner there. So if

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Speaker 3: I were to get in on Tampa right now, I

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Speaker 3: think the way to play them would definitely beat it back.

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Speaker 3: BESI let's ski to win the cons might Yeah, I'm

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Speaker 3: with you there.

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Speaker 2: I do think if if I had to pick a

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Speaker 2: Colorado player, it would be mccar. It just sounds like

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Speaker 2: people are kind of when you watch the broadcast, it

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Speaker 2: sounds like people are already kind of annoyting him, and if

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Speaker 2: you listen to the podcasts and stuff, and it's the

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Speaker 2: media who vote on this, so it does sound like

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Speaker 2: everyone's kind of angling for macar to win it already.

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Speaker 2: So I would go with Macar, but like you said,

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Speaker 2: the Avalanche are a little bit diceier situation though those

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Speaker 2: would be bets. I would wait to see what the

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Speaker 2: matchups like and maybe you can get a little bit

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Speaker 2: of a better number.

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Speaker 1: On mccar or McKinnon going into it.

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Speaker 2: And you know, if if you wanted to like get

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Speaker 2: really really sneaky the one long shot who and he

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Speaker 2: won't win and he's going to be triple digits, he

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Speaker 2: should be like one hundred and fifty to one at

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Speaker 2: this point that I maybe would target. And I got

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Speaker 2: a little sprinkle on his Corey Perry because he's near

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Speaker 2: the I think he's at the top in terms of goals.

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Speaker 2: Think Kutrop just caught him for the Lightning. He's at

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Speaker 2: five if he has just if he just goes bonkers

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Speaker 2: in the Stanley Cup Final and the Lightning win, it's

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Speaker 2: just the media vote on it.

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Speaker 1: It's a great story.

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Speaker 2: He's literally the only long shot I would even give

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Speaker 2: a second of thought to among both of those teams.

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Speaker 2: And on that note, we'll close this episode of the

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Speaker 2: Action Network podcast once again a reminder to download and

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Speaker 2: subscribe to Line Change if you like betting on hockey.

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Speaker 2: We will be recording a new one ahead of Rangers

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Speaker 2: and Lightning on Thursday morning, and then we will be

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Speaker 2: back to preview the Stanley Cup Final sometime next week

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Speaker 2: whenever we get to schedule there. So for Nick Martin,

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Speaker 2: Michael Leaboff, wishing you best of luck with your hockey

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Speaker 2: bets coming up, ye