WEBVTT - Election Two Weeks Away; Bonds Sell-Off as Traders Rethink Cuts

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<v Speaker 1>Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio News. Good morning, I'm Nathan

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<v Speaker 1>Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the stories we're

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<v Speaker 1>following today.

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<v Speaker 2>Karen, let's begin with the latest from the presidential campaign trail.

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<v Speaker 2>There are just two weeks left until the election, and

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<v Speaker 2>both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are fanning out across

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<v Speaker 2>the battleground states. Former President Trump visited Asheville, North Carolina,

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<v Speaker 2>and continued to make unsubstantiated claims about the federal response

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<v Speaker 2>to Hurricane Helene.

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<v Speaker 3>They don't have any money for the people that live here.

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<v Speaker 4>They got hit by one of the worst storms, possibly

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<v Speaker 4>the worst storm ever, but one of the worst storms

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<v Speaker 4>in the history of our country.

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<v Speaker 5>And it's a shame.

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<v Speaker 2>Donald Trump's claims run countered word from North Carolina Governor

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<v Speaker 2>Roy Cooper that FEMA has given one hundred and twenty

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<v Speaker 2>nine million dollars to Helene victims and placed more than

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<v Speaker 2>sixty two hundred people in temporary housing.

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<v Speaker 6>Meanwhile, Nathan Vice President Harris visited the Midwestern blue wall

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<v Speaker 6>state of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin. She criticized the former

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<v Speaker 6>president over a new report on his economic proposals from

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<v Speaker 6>the nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget.

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<v Speaker 7>There are many seniors in our country that social security

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<v Speaker 7>is their only form of income, and now an independent

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<v Speaker 7>agency has reviewed Donald Trump's theory about social security and

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<v Speaker 7>his policies and has indicated that his policy would actually

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<v Speaker 7>render the Social Security Fund empty essentially in six years.

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<v Speaker 6>Kamala Harris also took Trump to task for a side

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<v Speaker 6>stepping a question about raising the minimum wage during his

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<v Speaker 6>weekend campaign stop at a McDonald's. Today, early voting begins

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<v Speaker 6>in Wisconsin. Former President Barack Obama will join a Democratic

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<v Speaker 6>running mate, Tim Waltz at a rally in Madison, while

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<v Speaker 6>Republicans will hold their own events, encouraging voters to cast

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<v Speaker 6>an early ballot for Donald Trump.

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<v Speaker 2>Now, Karen, let's turn to the latest from the Middle East.

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<v Speaker 2>Secretary of State Anthony Blincoln has arrived in Israel. He

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<v Speaker 2>is scheduled to meet later today with Prime Minister Benjamin

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<v Speaker 2>Netanyahu in Jerusalem and Defense Minister Joev Galant in Tel Aviv.

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<v Speaker 2>It's Blncoln's eleventh trip to the Middle East since the

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<v Speaker 2>October seventh attack. America's top diplomat's been trying to engineer

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<v Speaker 2>a ceasefire between Israel and Iran backed militias since the

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<v Speaker 2>attack more than a year ago. Bloomberg's Paul Wallace says

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<v Speaker 2>this round of talks is unlikely to change things.

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<v Speaker 8>Israel at the moment sees itself as on the front

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<v Speaker 8>foot and degrading Hamas and Hezwella to a massive degree.

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<v Speaker 8>And it thinks that these military gains that it's been

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<v Speaker 8>making in the last several weeks, if not a few months,

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<v Speaker 8>are very much in its favor when it comes to

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<v Speaker 8>eventual diplomatic talks and eventual ceasefire negotiations.

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg's Paul Wallace ads Secretary Blincoln's visit comes as Israel's

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<v Speaker 2>retaliation against Iran is still yet to come. The US

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<v Speaker 2>maintains Israel's killing of Hamas leader Yaikiya sin War last

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<v Speaker 2>week could open the way for a breakthrough, even though

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<v Speaker 2>Hamas leaders and Netanyah, who have both vowed to fight on.

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<v Speaker 6>Well, let's turn to the markets now, Nathan and bonds

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<v Speaker 6>have been selling off, and that's pushing yields higher and higher.

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<v Speaker 6>Bloomberg John Tucker joins us with more, John, good morning,

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<v Speaker 6>and what's behind the move?

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<v Speaker 4>Well?

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<v Speaker 9>Current the market no longer sure the Fed's going to

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<v Speaker 9>cut rates in each of the next three FOMC meetings.

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<v Speaker 9>Strong employment data for September that whittled away the expectations.

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<v Speaker 9>Traders are positioning for a likelihood that there's going to

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<v Speaker 9>be at least one meeting when the FED stays on hold.

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<v Speaker 9>At your Denny Is with your Denny Research, we.

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<v Speaker 10>Have some FED officials already kind of walking back the

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<v Speaker 10>idea that there's going to be a fifty basis point

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<v Speaker 10>cut at the November meeting, or even walking back the

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<v Speaker 10>idea that we necessarily will have two twenty five basis

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<v Speaker 10>point cuts.

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<v Speaker 9>As for FED officials, Jeffrey Schmidt, president of the Kansas

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<v Speaker 9>City FED, said he favored a cautious and gradual approach.

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<v Speaker 9>Neil kesh Curry the Minneapolis FED, said he would need

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<v Speaker 9>real evidence the labor market is weakening quickly before he'd

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<v Speaker 9>moved from a cautious path. The prospect of bigger fiscal

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<v Speaker 9>deficit after elections next month only compounding the market's concerns.

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<v Speaker 9>You see the ten year yield rising back of a

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<v Speaker 9>four point two percent for the first time since July.

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<v Speaker 5>In New York.

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<v Speaker 9>I'm John Tucker, Bloomberg Radio.

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<v Speaker 2>Thanks John, It's another busy day for earnings, with nearly

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<v Speaker 2>thirty companies reporting, including GM. Let's get a preview from

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<v Speaker 2>Bloomberg's Tom Busby.

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<v Speaker 11>General Motors expected to report reduce losses from its electric

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<v Speaker 11>vehicle lineup, and even though vehicle sales in the third

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<v Speaker 11>quarter were down, prices were kept higher as even though

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<v Speaker 11>some competitors offered more discounts ad in the benefits it

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<v Speaker 11>likely got from its recent stock buyback plans, and that

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<v Speaker 11>should all give GM a boost. Investors will also be

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<v Speaker 11>watching for any improvements and outlook for its operations in China,

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<v Speaker 11>which has lost money the past two quarters. Bloomberg consensus

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<v Speaker 11>calls for revenues of forty four point sixty nine billion

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<v Speaker 11>dollars and adjusted earnings per share two dollars and forty

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<v Speaker 11>five cents.

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<v Speaker 9>Tom Busby Bloomberg.

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<v Speaker 6>Radio, All right, Tom, thank you all. Shares of SAP

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<v Speaker 6>up about five percent overseas cloud revenue swored at Europe's

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<v Speaker 6>biggest software company, SAP is transitioning customers away from locally

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<v Speaker 6>run systems with the promise of artificial intelligence tools and analytics.

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<v Speaker 5>Well Karen.

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<v Speaker 2>One of Europe's biggest banks, HSBC, has begun its biggest

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<v Speaker 2>restructuring in a decade. Let's go to London and get

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<v Speaker 2>the latest with Bloomberg's Ewan Pots, Ewan.

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<v Speaker 12>Nathan and Karen. One of the world's biggest banks is

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<v Speaker 12>reshaping its global structure. HSBC will combine its commercial and

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<v Speaker 12>institutional banking operations, and it's creating a new international wealth

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<v Speaker 12>and premiere banking business. It's all part of a plan

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<v Speaker 12>by the London based lenders new CEO to cut costs

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<v Speaker 12>and reduce complexity. HSBC has also named a new CFO,

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<v Speaker 12>its first female finance director in its one hundred and

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<v Speaker 12>fifty nine year history in London. I'm Une Pots Bloomberg.

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<v Speaker 6>Radio, all right you in thank you Well. Here in

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<v Speaker 6>the US, banks will now have to give customers access

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<v Speaker 6>to their financial data after the top consumer watchdog finalized

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<v Speaker 6>a long awaited rule aimed at fueling more competition for

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<v Speaker 6>financial products. Under the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau measure, consumers

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<v Speaker 6>will be able to demand, download, and transfer their highly

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<v Speaker 6>coveted data to another lender or financial services provider for free.

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<v Speaker 6>The Open Banking Rule, as it's known, is aimed at

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<v Speaker 6>making it easier for consumers to switch providers to access

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<v Speaker 6>better rates. Time Now for a look at some of

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<v Speaker 6>the other stories making news in New York and around

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<v Speaker 6>the world, and for that we're joined by Blowberg's Michael

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<v Speaker 6>Barr Michael, Good Morning.

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<v Speaker 5>Good Morning, Karen. More support for a new trial and

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<v Speaker 5>a death row case in Texas. Supporters of Robert Robertson

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<v Speaker 5>insists that his two thousand and three conviction and the

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<v Speaker 5>killing of his two year old daughter was based on

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<v Speaker 5>the now discredited shaken baby syndrome theory. State Representative Lacy

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<v Speaker 5>Hull test five before state lawmakers. She is backing a

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<v Speaker 5>new trial for Robertson.

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<v Speaker 13>Let the jury make up their mind, but he deserves

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<v Speaker 13>a real defense and a fair trial.

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<v Speaker 5>Robertson has high profile support, including psychologist Phil McGraw that

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<v Speaker 5>are known as Doctor Phil.

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<v Speaker 13>If we start executing people in Texas absent due process,

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<v Speaker 13>absent fair trial, we are going down a really dangerous roague.

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<v Speaker 5>Also among Doctor Phil supporting Robertson, author John Grisham, A

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<v Speaker 5>powerful new drug is making headlines in the US. An

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<v Speaker 5>autopsy has revealed former One Direction singer Liam Payne had

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<v Speaker 5>multiple drugs in his system, including pink cocaine, when he

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<v Speaker 5>plunged off a balcony in Argentina last week, dying at

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<v Speaker 5>the age of thirty one. The drug has also been

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<v Speaker 5>linked to rappers Sean Diddy Combs. Despite its name, there

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<v Speaker 5>is often no cocaine in the mix of drugs, which

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<v Speaker 5>acts as both a stimulant and depressant. Former DEA official

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<v Speaker 5>Bill Bodner, it's.

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<v Speaker 11>Been in the United States for a little while now,

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<v Speaker 11>not it hasn't been as popular as it's becoming now.

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<v Speaker 5>Public health officials are warning parents the designer drug with

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<v Speaker 5>the it's bright color is growing in popularity among teens

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<v Speaker 5>and young adults. Cuba's capital remains paralyzed, as the island

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<v Speaker 5>had a fourth night of a massive blackout that has

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<v Speaker 5>generated both a handful of small protests and a stern

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<v Speaker 5>government warning that any unarrest will be punished. Meanwhile, Hurricane

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<v Speaker 5>Oscar crossed the island's eastern coast with winds and heavy

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<v Speaker 5>rain Sunday night, leaving at least six dead. Filmmaker Steven

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<v Speaker 5>Spielberg is among twenty recipients of the National Medals of Arts.

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<v Speaker 5>President Biden also honored nineteen recipients of National Humanities Medals,

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<v Speaker 5>including playwright screenwriter Aaron Sorkin. After presenting the medals. The

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<v Speaker 5>President had a message to the recipients.

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<v Speaker 13>With absolute courage, you combat racial stereotypes, confront ghosts of history,

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<v Speaker 13>and speak truth to power.

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<v Speaker 5>Filmmakers Spike Lee and Ken Burns, and singers Missy Elliott

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<v Speaker 5>and Queen Latifah were also honored with Medals of Art

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<v Speaker 5>at the White House. Global News twenty four hours a

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<v Speaker 5>day and whenever you want it with Bloomberg News Now.

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<v Speaker 5>I'm Michael Barr, and this is Bloomberg.

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<v Speaker 3>Karen.

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<v Speaker 6>All right, Michael Barr, thank you time now for the

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<v Speaker 6>Bloomberg scores. Up date Broncky you by trying state OUTI

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<v Speaker 6>here's John Stanshawer, John.

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<v Speaker 3>Good morning, Good morning, Karen.

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<v Speaker 4>The NBA season tips off tonight in Boston Celtics and Knicks.

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<v Speaker 4>Celtics will hoist their eighteenth championship bender. It was one

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<v Speaker 4>of their greatest seasons ever regular in postseason combined, they

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<v Speaker 4>went eighty and twenty one. Vegas as them as the

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<v Speaker 4>favorites to repeat. But the Knicks were good last year

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<v Speaker 4>and figure to be even better with the additions of Karl,

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<v Speaker 4>Anthony Towns and Michel Bridges. The undeniable leader of the

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<v Speaker 4>next is Jalen Brunson coach Tump Tibeau had never before.

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<v Speaker 3>Named a team captain that he has with Brunson.

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<v Speaker 13>Jalen's not one of those guys. It's gonna get up

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<v Speaker 13>in front of the team and say you gotta do this,

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<v Speaker 13>you gotta do that. But you know, Bubba buh. What

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<v Speaker 13>you're gonna see from Jalen is him coming in early

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<v Speaker 13>every day, went through his routine, great concentration, great work

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<v Speaker 13>at the team, oriented all about his teammates. To me,

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<v Speaker 13>there's no better leadership than that.

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<v Speaker 4>One of the game tonight, that's Minnesota taking on the

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<v Speaker 4>Lakers Lebron James starting his twenty second NBA season. New

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<v Speaker 4>Lakers coach JJ Reddick hasn't said whether Lebron's son, Bronni,

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<v Speaker 4>will join him on the court. If he does, it's

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<v Speaker 4>NBA history. It's only happened once in baseball nineteen ninety

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<v Speaker 4>in Seattle, Ken Griffy senior and junior played together.

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<v Speaker 3>The Griffies will be at the game tonight in La Baltimore.

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<v Speaker 4>Ravens with their fifth straight win, led by Lamar Jackson

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<v Speaker 4>making a case for another MVP through five touchdown passes

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<v Speaker 4>in a forty one thirty one win at Tampa Bay

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<v Speaker 4>Derrick Henry Rush for one hundred and sixty nine yards

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<v Speaker 4>James Conner one hundred and fifty two all purpose yards

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<v Speaker 4>Arizona on the last second field goal top the LA

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<v Speaker 4>Chargers seventeen fifteen. Injury news inclod a couple of season

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<v Speaker 4>enders Browns QB DeShawn Watson, who was not having a

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<v Speaker 4>good season, now out ruptured Achilles forty nine ers white out,

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<v Speaker 4>Brandon Eye torn acl The ribbage suffered by Washington star

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<v Speaker 4>rookie QB Jane Daniels may keep him out this week,

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<v Speaker 4>but it's not long term. Aaron Boone confirmed the obvious

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<v Speaker 4>Garrett Cole will start Game one of the World Series

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<v Speaker 4>for the Yankees Friday in Los Angeles.

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<v Speaker 3>John Stashanmwer Bloomberg Sports Care.

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<v Speaker 14>Navan Coast to Coast on Bloomberg Radio, nationwide on Sirius XM,

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<v Speaker 14>and around the world on Bloomberg dot Com and the

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<v Speaker 14>Bloomberg Business app. This is Bloomberg Daybreak. Good morning, I'm

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<v Speaker 14>Nathan Hager.

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<v Speaker 2>With two weeks left until the election, Donald Trump and

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<v Speaker 2>Kamala Harris are both scouring the battleground states for every

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<v Speaker 2>last swing vote they can find.

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<v Speaker 3>In our movement.

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<v Speaker 10>We love Christians, we welcome believers, and we embrace followers

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<v Speaker 10>of Jesus.

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<v Speaker 7>You know, every election we said this is the one,

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<v Speaker 7>this is the one, This truly is the one.

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<v Speaker 2>And from where I'm where this election stands. We are

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<v Speaker 2>joined now by Bloomberg News Managing Editor Derek Wallbank. Derek,

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<v Speaker 2>good morning. So we've had Donald Trump in North Carolina

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<v Speaker 2>continuing to make unfounded claims about Hurricane aid, while Kamala

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<v Speaker 2>Harris has been slamming Trump's economic plans in the midwestern

0:12:07.440 --> 0:12:10.680
<v Speaker 2>Blue Wall states. Does any of this move the needle?

0:12:11.679 --> 0:12:14.000
<v Speaker 15>Well, Nathan, the question right now is who are these

0:12:15.440 --> 0:12:16.520
<v Speaker 15>people speaking to?

0:12:17.000 --> 0:12:17.200
<v Speaker 5>Right?

0:12:17.240 --> 0:12:20.640
<v Speaker 15>And it's really interesting because as far diverged as Kamala

0:12:20.720 --> 0:12:23.840
<v Speaker 15>Harris and Donald Trump are on any number of things,

0:12:24.360 --> 0:12:26.920
<v Speaker 15>you can actually find some commonalities in who they actually

0:12:27.000 --> 0:12:30.240
<v Speaker 15>are speaking to. I mean, Kamala Harris right now barnstorming

0:12:31.280 --> 0:12:38.640
<v Speaker 15>places like Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin with with Liz Cheney. That's

0:12:38.640 --> 0:12:41.000
<v Speaker 15>an appeal to those Nicki Haley voters, the people who

0:12:41.040 --> 0:12:44.520
<v Speaker 15>are still voting for Nicki Haley even after she'd lost right,

0:12:45.520 --> 0:12:48.920
<v Speaker 15>and there are many of them in those three states. Now,

0:12:49.360 --> 0:12:52.480
<v Speaker 15>the simple fact of the math is that if Kamala

0:12:52.480 --> 0:12:55.720
<v Speaker 15>Harris wins in Omaha, Nebraska and then goes and wins

0:12:55.720 --> 0:12:58.720
<v Speaker 15>the Blue Wall, she's the president. Right, That's ball game.

0:12:59.120 --> 0:13:04.520
<v Speaker 15>That's literally how numbers work. The thing that Donald Trump

0:13:04.600 --> 0:13:09.440
<v Speaker 15>has though, is he's we're starting to see some of

0:13:09.480 --> 0:13:13.640
<v Speaker 15>these early vote numbers coming in, and in places like

0:13:13.720 --> 0:13:17.720
<v Speaker 15>North Carolina where Trump was, in places like Nevada, you

0:13:17.760 --> 0:13:20.280
<v Speaker 15>are seeing some numbers come in that the Trump team

0:13:20.360 --> 0:13:22.440
<v Speaker 15>is exceptionally happy about.

0:13:23.280 --> 0:13:25.640
<v Speaker 2>Talk a little bit more about that. What are we

0:13:25.880 --> 0:13:29.360
<v Speaker 2>learning when it comes to early voting at this point.

0:13:29.559 --> 0:13:33.000
<v Speaker 15>Well, it's tough, Nathan, right, Remember, because if we're baselining

0:13:33.040 --> 0:13:35.720
<v Speaker 15>off of twenty twenty, we're baselining off of a COVID

0:13:35.760 --> 0:13:40.240
<v Speaker 15>election where Democrats were only too happy to vote almost entirely,

0:13:40.440 --> 0:13:42.800
<v Speaker 15>you know, by mail, and there was such a big,

0:13:43.520 --> 0:13:47.719
<v Speaker 15>big divergence between mail and in person and the likes

0:13:47.760 --> 0:13:52.400
<v Speaker 15>that we really hadn't seen before. Republicans have definitely emphasized

0:13:52.440 --> 0:13:56.160
<v Speaker 15>mail more and early vote more, and both sides are

0:13:56.160 --> 0:14:00.720
<v Speaker 15>trying to bank votes. But we are seeing, certainly, you know,

0:14:00.960 --> 0:14:04.520
<v Speaker 15>in Nevada, we're seeing a bit of an outperformance among

0:14:04.760 --> 0:14:09.440
<v Speaker 15>rural voters we're seeing the vote in Las Vegas. The

0:14:09.440 --> 0:14:13.839
<v Speaker 15>big Democratic bulwark isn't really where it has been in

0:14:13.880 --> 0:14:18.640
<v Speaker 15>prior cycles, certainly relatively. At the same time, if I'm

0:14:18.679 --> 0:14:21.240
<v Speaker 15>looking for good news for Kamala Harris, I'll tell you

0:14:21.360 --> 0:14:23.360
<v Speaker 15>I would find it in some of the gender gaps

0:14:23.360 --> 0:14:26.160
<v Speaker 15>that I'm seeing in some of these early states. You know,

0:14:26.480 --> 0:14:28.280
<v Speaker 15>you're seeing in some of these places in the early

0:14:28.360 --> 0:14:31.920
<v Speaker 15>vote women out voting men by maybe eight to nine

0:14:31.960 --> 0:14:35.680
<v Speaker 15>percentage points, And every single poll that we can see

0:14:36.160 --> 0:14:39.240
<v Speaker 15>is basically saying that there's likely to be an incredibly

0:14:39.320 --> 0:14:42.680
<v Speaker 15>high gender gap here, with women voting far more for

0:14:42.800 --> 0:14:46.000
<v Speaker 15>Harris and men voting far more for Trump. Again, let

0:14:46.000 --> 0:14:49.240
<v Speaker 15>me reduce this. I'm vastly oversimplifying it here, so all

0:14:49.280 --> 0:14:52.120
<v Speaker 15>those disclaimers, but if you just sort of figured that

0:14:52.160 --> 0:14:55.440
<v Speaker 15>there was an even breakout right in terms of women

0:14:55.520 --> 0:14:59.920
<v Speaker 15>for Harris and men for Trump, and then more women vote,

0:15:00.200 --> 0:15:02.320
<v Speaker 15>you know, the math to that suggests that that's good

0:15:02.320 --> 0:15:05.640
<v Speaker 15>news for Kamala Harris. So there are positive indicators for

0:15:05.760 --> 0:15:09.160
<v Speaker 15>both sides depending on where you look across these seven

0:15:09.720 --> 0:15:14.800
<v Speaker 15>critical battleground states. I do think one of the biggest commonalities, though, Nathan,

0:15:14.880 --> 0:15:16.880
<v Speaker 15>is that you see again and again and again. Both

0:15:16.920 --> 0:15:20.240
<v Speaker 15>of these candidates keep returning to Pennsylvania. In all of

0:15:20.280 --> 0:15:24.320
<v Speaker 15>the election map modeling that I'm doing right now, the

0:15:24.360 --> 0:15:27.800
<v Speaker 15>most likely tipping point state where you know that you

0:15:27.840 --> 0:15:31.040
<v Speaker 15>know its ballgame is Pennsylvania.

0:15:31.000 --> 0:15:33.960
<v Speaker 2>Just thirty seconds left. Along with presidential politics, we have

0:15:34.040 --> 0:15:36.800
<v Speaker 2>geopolitics and Secretary of State b Lincoln back in the

0:15:36.840 --> 0:15:39.360
<v Speaker 2>Middle East? Is there a chance for a ceasefire with

0:15:39.440 --> 0:15:40.840
<v Speaker 2>two weeks to go before the election?

0:15:41.360 --> 0:15:44.560
<v Speaker 15>Well, Anthony Blincoln look is on trip number eleven, and

0:15:44.880 --> 0:15:47.040
<v Speaker 15>I do think that the US is trying to find

0:15:47.120 --> 0:15:50.920
<v Speaker 15>any way toward a ceasefire. They're wondering now whether or

0:15:50.960 --> 0:15:55.640
<v Speaker 15>not the conditions on the ground with the death of

0:15:55.720 --> 0:15:59.840
<v Speaker 15>the Hamas leader you know and others, has changed enough.

0:16:00.720 --> 0:16:04.480
<v Speaker 15>Hard to say right now, but the Biden administration does

0:16:04.600 --> 0:16:07.960
<v Speaker 15>keep trying and maybe at one point they succeed, but

0:16:08.120 --> 0:16:12.760
<v Speaker 15>we haven't necessarily seen a massive change on the ground.

0:16:12.880 --> 0:16:16.040
<v Speaker 15>Benjamin Netniaw who's been very clear Israel's Prime Minister that

0:16:16.160 --> 0:16:19.120
<v Speaker 15>the condition for a ceasefire is released the hostages, and

0:16:19.160 --> 0:16:20.280
<v Speaker 15>that has not happened.

0:16:20.520 --> 0:16:23.960
<v Speaker 6>This is Bloomberg Daybreak, your morning podcast on the stories

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<v Speaker 3>And I'm Nathan Hager.

0:17:07.920 --> 0:17:10.000
<v Speaker 2>Join us again tomorrow morning for all the news you

0:17:10.040 --> 0:17:12.800
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