1 00:00:05,600 --> 00:00:09,000 Speaker 1: What's up, Brenson. Welcome back to the Fantasy Pros Dynasty 2 00:00:09,080 --> 00:00:12,119 Speaker 1: Baseball Podcast. I'm your host, Chris Welsh. Thank you guys 3 00:00:12,119 --> 00:00:14,000 Speaker 1: so much for coming and hanging out with us today. 4 00:00:14,080 --> 00:00:18,239 Speaker 1: Where I'm welcoming in Jesse Severe, host of the Dynasty 5 00:00:18,320 --> 00:00:22,120 Speaker 1: Sports Life Podcast. Actually a very long time friend of mine. 6 00:00:22,160 --> 00:00:25,360 Speaker 1: The Dynasty Sports Life podcast is actually a part of 7 00:00:25,440 --> 00:00:27,880 Speaker 1: the In This League podcast network, And what is most 8 00:00:27,880 --> 00:00:31,560 Speaker 1: fascinating about Jesse is this is one of the best, 9 00:00:31,640 --> 00:00:35,560 Speaker 1: most hardcore Dynasty players and that show actually isn't even 10 00:00:35,840 --> 00:00:42,440 Speaker 1: just baseball. The Dynasty Sports Life podcast covers multiple sports football, basketball, hockey, 11 00:00:42,520 --> 00:00:47,400 Speaker 1: and baseball. So we're talking to a premier Dynasty player 12 00:00:47,520 --> 00:00:50,000 Speaker 1: and a great podcaster who I am very familiar with. 13 00:00:50,080 --> 00:00:52,239 Speaker 1: So Jesse is going to be joining us here in 14 00:00:52,280 --> 00:00:55,760 Speaker 1: just a minute to talk about the Dynasty ranks fifty 15 00:00:55,840 --> 00:01:00,000 Speaker 1: one through one hundred we're building in We're giving you, guys, 16 00:01:00,120 --> 00:01:02,400 Speaker 1: is a baseline to what these ranks look like. So 17 00:01:02,480 --> 00:01:05,440 Speaker 1: we are going to be covering the entire second half 18 00:01:05,560 --> 00:01:09,280 Speaker 1: of the first round here, talking about prospects, process with pitching, 19 00:01:09,600 --> 00:01:12,480 Speaker 1: and of course some of the really fun hitter matchups. 20 00:01:12,480 --> 00:01:14,160 Speaker 1: That's what we're going to be doing today and I 21 00:01:14,160 --> 00:01:16,320 Speaker 1: think you guys will enjoy it. If you're new to 22 00:01:16,360 --> 00:01:18,880 Speaker 1: the podcast, I do want to ask you make sure 23 00:01:18,959 --> 00:01:22,480 Speaker 1: that you are subscribed. This is on the Leading Off Feed, 24 00:01:22,520 --> 00:01:25,280 Speaker 1: which is pretty great, so if you're already a Leading 25 00:01:25,319 --> 00:01:27,560 Speaker 1: Off listener, you're set to go. But when we get 26 00:01:27,600 --> 00:01:30,960 Speaker 1: in season, this feed flips over and during the draft 27 00:01:31,040 --> 00:01:33,120 Speaker 1: season will be flipped in to a lot of the 28 00:01:33,160 --> 00:01:35,600 Speaker 1: redraft coverage we do daily shows. So make sure you 29 00:01:35,680 --> 00:01:38,680 Speaker 1: subscribe to the podcast, and feel free to drop a 30 00:01:38,680 --> 00:01:42,319 Speaker 1: little rate and review, even mentioning the Dynasty podcast because 31 00:01:42,600 --> 00:01:45,360 Speaker 1: it's a pretty cool revelation we've had here at Fantasy Pros, 32 00:01:45,440 --> 00:01:49,760 Speaker 1: the first Dynasty Baseball podcast, so let's keep rocking with it. 33 00:01:49,920 --> 00:01:54,160 Speaker 1: And lastly, you know Fantasy Pros for the incredible aggregated content, 34 00:01:54,480 --> 00:01:58,760 Speaker 1: all of the insanely awesome articles and obviously videos and podcasts, 35 00:01:58,840 --> 00:02:01,680 Speaker 1: but there is a premium product that you're gonna want 36 00:02:01,720 --> 00:02:03,640 Speaker 1: to take advantage of, So go and download the app 37 00:02:03,680 --> 00:02:07,040 Speaker 1: today iOS, Android, or you can simply just go to 38 00:02:07,040 --> 00:02:10,200 Speaker 1: Fantasypros dot com and you can start exploring. Because when 39 00:02:10,200 --> 00:02:14,639 Speaker 1: you get into draft season, you've got roster management, roster suggestions, 40 00:02:14,800 --> 00:02:18,480 Speaker 1: mock drafts, the Draft Wizard is insanely cool, and a 41 00:02:18,480 --> 00:02:20,440 Speaker 1: gajillion other things that are gonna help you as a 42 00:02:20,440 --> 00:02:23,520 Speaker 1: fantasy player. So go and consider that today, and you 43 00:02:23,560 --> 00:02:26,720 Speaker 1: can get access to the premium discord for Fantasy Pros, 44 00:02:26,760 --> 00:02:29,160 Speaker 1: which not only has a great community, but it's where 45 00:02:29,200 --> 00:02:30,520 Speaker 1: you can take part in some of the stuff we 46 00:02:30,600 --> 00:02:33,120 Speaker 1: do during leading off during the year, the home run Contest. 47 00:02:33,360 --> 00:02:35,280 Speaker 1: We've got a lot of different prices and stuff like that. 48 00:02:35,320 --> 00:02:37,560 Speaker 1: So go and check it out today, Fantasy Pros on 49 00:02:37,680 --> 00:02:43,480 Speaker 1: your app or just on the web. What's that sound, Yes, 50 00:02:43,600 --> 00:02:46,120 Speaker 1: it's Dynasty time and here he is, my guy, Jesse 51 00:02:46,200 --> 00:02:49,279 Speaker 1: Severe from Dynasty Sports Life. Jesse, what's up, buddy. 52 00:02:49,160 --> 00:02:52,079 Speaker 2: Hey man, I'm doing great, Welsh love talking to a little 53 00:02:52,160 --> 00:02:54,919 Speaker 2: Dynasty Baseball. Appreciate doing this with you today. 54 00:02:55,160 --> 00:02:58,520 Speaker 1: Yeah, Jesse is one of the better Dynasty players I 55 00:02:58,560 --> 00:03:01,200 Speaker 1: have ever known. I've played with him a long time 56 00:03:01,760 --> 00:03:05,320 Speaker 1: and he's also a crazy person because of not only 57 00:03:05,400 --> 00:03:08,959 Speaker 1: the Dynasty Sports Life is baseball, but it is multi sport, 58 00:03:09,240 --> 00:03:12,160 Speaker 1: and you talk a lot of different sports. So it's 59 00:03:12,200 --> 00:03:16,320 Speaker 1: actually uniquely fun because it gives a different perspective in 60 00:03:16,520 --> 00:03:21,560 Speaker 1: how different sports battle and use dynasty, whether it's ranks 61 00:03:21,600 --> 00:03:25,480 Speaker 1: or drafting habits. And you know, football dynasty is so 62 00:03:25,680 --> 00:03:29,640 Speaker 1: different than baseball dynasty. Baseball dynasty in its own might 63 00:03:29,720 --> 00:03:33,360 Speaker 1: be the craziest one of all because of how much 64 00:03:33,400 --> 00:03:36,720 Speaker 1: and how many players can be so far off and 65 00:03:36,840 --> 00:03:39,480 Speaker 1: having credible values. And that has obviously been a trend 66 00:03:39,520 --> 00:03:41,400 Speaker 1: of what we've been talking about and we're going to 67 00:03:41,440 --> 00:03:45,320 Speaker 1: talk about in here as I am picking apart relative 68 00:03:45,440 --> 00:03:49,240 Speaker 1: players that exist, you know, maybe across multiple lists, my 69 00:03:49,320 --> 00:03:52,200 Speaker 1: own lists, in the fifty to one hundred range. These 70 00:03:52,200 --> 00:03:54,120 Speaker 1: are the type of players that you can expect, the 71 00:03:54,160 --> 00:03:58,720 Speaker 1: type of questions battling old versus new, and Jesse, let's 72 00:03:58,760 --> 00:04:03,280 Speaker 1: just jump right into it. It's Manny Machado, because Manny 73 00:04:03,280 --> 00:04:07,640 Speaker 1: Machada was a I would say probably a pretty easy 74 00:04:07,800 --> 00:04:10,680 Speaker 1: top twenty five to thirty dynasty player coming into this 75 00:04:10,800 --> 00:04:13,560 Speaker 1: past year. I think he's fallen in a lot of spots. 76 00:04:13,600 --> 00:04:16,040 Speaker 1: He's lightly come up in a few different of these 77 00:04:16,040 --> 00:04:19,640 Speaker 1: conversations where you know, oh, I kind of maybe favor him. 78 00:04:19,760 --> 00:04:23,400 Speaker 1: I favor him here, but I've got him right on 79 00:04:23,440 --> 00:04:26,440 Speaker 1: the fringes, just right at that fifty marker. And a 80 00:04:26,440 --> 00:04:29,160 Speaker 1: few other of the industry people have him right at 81 00:04:29,480 --> 00:04:32,760 Speaker 1: or right below the top fifties, So he's going to 82 00:04:32,800 --> 00:04:36,120 Speaker 1: be the first breaker right at the top of the fifties. 83 00:04:36,160 --> 00:04:38,040 Speaker 1: Talk to me about Manny Machado in Dynasty. 84 00:04:38,279 --> 00:04:40,720 Speaker 2: Yeah. The thing with many Machado is he's pretty much 85 00:04:40,720 --> 00:04:43,680 Speaker 2: a lock under the hood for the same thing every year. 86 00:04:43,760 --> 00:04:45,560 Speaker 2: You know, he's going to give you the thirty home runs, 87 00:04:45,760 --> 00:04:49,799 Speaker 2: he's going to give you the reasonable but not great average, 88 00:04:49,839 --> 00:04:51,920 Speaker 2: and he's gonna knock in a bunch of RBI a 89 00:04:52,000 --> 00:04:54,760 Speaker 2: bunch of runs. If you liked him before, there's no 90 00:04:54,880 --> 00:04:57,240 Speaker 2: reason not to like him now. He is the same 91 00:04:57,279 --> 00:05:00,440 Speaker 2: age as Bryce Harper, Mookie Betts, Hose Ramirez. He's kind 92 00:05:00,480 --> 00:05:04,320 Speaker 2: of part of that age cadre. And the only thing 93 00:05:04,400 --> 00:05:07,000 Speaker 2: I can think of why we think of the Padress 94 00:05:07,120 --> 00:05:10,000 Speaker 2: underperforming last year is that they were built Petco on 95 00:05:10,160 --> 00:05:12,599 Speaker 2: an ancient burial ground, because there was just something wrong 96 00:05:12,760 --> 00:05:14,640 Speaker 2: in the water in San Diego last. 97 00:05:14,520 --> 00:05:17,400 Speaker 1: Year, and it's very the inch of burial ground makes 98 00:05:17,440 --> 00:05:18,920 Speaker 1: a lot of sense. That actually might be the most 99 00:05:19,000 --> 00:05:22,280 Speaker 1: reasonable excuse to what the crazy things that happened. To 100 00:05:22,360 --> 00:05:25,080 Speaker 1: your point, you're not wrong about the like, Hey, if 101 00:05:25,120 --> 00:05:27,240 Speaker 1: you liked him before, you can still like him. He 102 00:05:27,360 --> 00:05:29,200 Speaker 1: sits in the world of some of these other guys 103 00:05:29,520 --> 00:05:32,880 Speaker 1: the negatives, if you're gonna pick apart some negatives. It's 104 00:05:32,920 --> 00:05:37,279 Speaker 1: the lowest batting average he's had since twenty nineteen, which 105 00:05:37,320 --> 00:05:39,400 Speaker 1: didn't make everybody feel good. It did go with a 106 00:05:39,440 --> 00:05:44,160 Speaker 1: low babbitb and his babbit to batting average is pretty translatable. 107 00:05:44,360 --> 00:05:48,040 Speaker 1: It's the lowest OBP he's had since two thousand and seventeen, 108 00:05:48,839 --> 00:05:52,200 Speaker 1: if you don't count the twenty twenty season. It was 109 00:05:52,279 --> 00:05:56,520 Speaker 1: the lowest amount of runs he scored since. Oh boy, 110 00:05:56,640 --> 00:05:58,920 Speaker 1: I mean, I'm looking here, it looks like two thousand 111 00:05:58,960 --> 00:06:02,480 Speaker 1: and fourteen. Lois RBIs Over the last couple of years. 112 00:06:02,640 --> 00:06:05,120 Speaker 1: Home run totals are tiny bit down. But here's the 113 00:06:05,120 --> 00:06:08,480 Speaker 1: thing that really matters. He is almost thirty two years old, 114 00:06:08,520 --> 00:06:11,080 Speaker 1: and he is going to miss some early portions of 115 00:06:11,120 --> 00:06:15,480 Speaker 1: this year with kind of like a little disastrous Padres thing. 116 00:06:15,520 --> 00:06:17,800 Speaker 1: So I think what ends up happening from that Dynasty 117 00:06:17,839 --> 00:06:23,400 Speaker 1: perspective is age to production levels dropping to maybe big 118 00:06:23,480 --> 00:06:27,160 Speaker 1: questions around that team make him less of a viable 119 00:06:27,440 --> 00:06:29,040 Speaker 1: like draft option early. 120 00:06:29,279 --> 00:06:30,320 Speaker 2: But dare I. 121 00:06:30,279 --> 00:06:33,599 Speaker 1: Say to you with many Machado sitting around fifty is 122 00:06:33,600 --> 00:06:36,320 Speaker 1: many Machado a dynasty by right now. 123 00:06:36,240 --> 00:06:38,520 Speaker 2: I would say he is. You know, thirty one is 124 00:06:38,640 --> 00:06:43,200 Speaker 2: not ancient in dynasty baseball terms, it is not. You know, 125 00:06:43,480 --> 00:06:47,080 Speaker 2: heck Frey Freeman's four years older than him. So you know, 126 00:06:47,080 --> 00:06:49,000 Speaker 2: if we're not done with Freddy Freeman, we shouldn't be 127 00:06:49,040 --> 00:06:51,800 Speaker 2: done with many Machado. I really think, yeah, if you 128 00:06:51,839 --> 00:06:55,000 Speaker 2: could get him around fifty, that's a value. Don't expect 129 00:06:55,000 --> 00:06:57,120 Speaker 2: stole the basis, But you know what, there's a lot 130 00:06:57,120 --> 00:06:59,240 Speaker 2: of places we can find stolen bases. These days, we 131 00:06:59,240 --> 00:07:01,599 Speaker 2: need more of them. But it doesn't have to come 132 00:07:01,800 --> 00:07:05,120 Speaker 2: necessarily from a guy in your top thirty or well 133 00:07:05,200 --> 00:07:07,600 Speaker 2: top fifty for you to succeed. So if you give 134 00:07:07,680 --> 00:07:09,760 Speaker 2: a Chad around fifty in a startup draft, I think 135 00:07:09,800 --> 00:07:10,520 Speaker 2: you're doing fine. 136 00:07:10,960 --> 00:07:13,520 Speaker 1: Yeah, and this might be one that slowly gets the 137 00:07:13,600 --> 00:07:14,880 Speaker 1: tick up. There's a slight day. 138 00:07:15,120 --> 00:07:15,600 Speaker 2: I live in. 139 00:07:15,720 --> 00:07:18,640 Speaker 1: The three to four year window is definitely what I 140 00:07:18,680 --> 00:07:20,440 Speaker 1: focus on. And you know, there's a little bit of 141 00:07:20,520 --> 00:07:24,000 Speaker 1: a production negative to early on this year. I do 142 00:07:24,040 --> 00:07:26,520 Speaker 1: wonder what that carries over through the rest of the year. 143 00:07:26,600 --> 00:07:28,120 Speaker 1: So all of a sudden, it's like if you have 144 00:07:28,160 --> 00:07:32,080 Speaker 1: a lesser thirty one to thirty two year old season, 145 00:07:32,560 --> 00:07:35,400 Speaker 1: and then you're banking on the next year where he's 146 00:07:35,400 --> 00:07:37,480 Speaker 1: even a little bit older, and maybe guys like Sodo 147 00:07:37,520 --> 00:07:39,680 Speaker 1: or Gone. That's where some of the dings come in 148 00:07:39,720 --> 00:07:42,000 Speaker 1: for many mitchatda. But projections are still very friendly. Of 149 00:07:42,040 --> 00:07:46,160 Speaker 1: course they would be because most projections are battling a 150 00:07:46,240 --> 00:07:49,160 Speaker 1: three year window, and two of these three years were 151 00:07:49,400 --> 00:07:52,760 Speaker 1: great years for good years for manye Miuchaddo, specifically twenty 152 00:07:52,840 --> 00:07:54,520 Speaker 1: twenty two, which is going to have a higher weight 153 00:07:54,560 --> 00:07:57,000 Speaker 1: on projections. So if people don't understand that, you know, 154 00:07:57,320 --> 00:07:59,960 Speaker 1: I've said this before, Jesse is a projections guy, by 155 00:08:00,040 --> 00:08:04,400 Speaker 1: the way, that I as many can now you can 156 00:08:04,520 --> 00:08:08,200 Speaker 1: I what projections will look like when you've done this 157 00:08:08,280 --> 00:08:11,480 Speaker 1: long enough. Be it looking at three year windows, or 158 00:08:11,480 --> 00:08:14,840 Speaker 1: be it looking at the underlying analytical things like expected 159 00:08:14,880 --> 00:08:18,600 Speaker 1: batting average, a hard hit barell rate, like those things 160 00:08:19,200 --> 00:08:22,360 Speaker 1: you can kind of tell based on their career averages. Oh, 161 00:08:22,400 --> 00:08:24,640 Speaker 1: this is what projections will look like. So I'm not 162 00:08:24,800 --> 00:08:30,080 Speaker 1: surprised that projections look better one single bit for him. 163 00:08:30,560 --> 00:08:33,280 Speaker 1: But you know, the things to consider long term are 164 00:08:33,320 --> 00:08:36,680 Speaker 1: the hard hit rate was down, the expected batting averages down, 165 00:08:37,040 --> 00:08:39,480 Speaker 1: you know those those are things while with a declining 166 00:08:39,559 --> 00:08:41,520 Speaker 1: age that make some of the questions out there. But 167 00:08:41,640 --> 00:08:44,200 Speaker 1: in the fifties, Mania Machado is kind of sneaky. How 168 00:08:44,200 --> 00:08:47,120 Speaker 1: about this one for you. How about a World Series 169 00:08:47,200 --> 00:08:49,920 Speaker 1: battle of a player that I think maybe had one 170 00:08:50,200 --> 00:08:53,280 Speaker 1: pinch run or maybe one at bat versus one of 171 00:08:53,280 --> 00:08:56,760 Speaker 1: the best leadoff hitters in baseball at this point. And 172 00:08:57,120 --> 00:09:01,480 Speaker 1: this is that probably somewhere between even taper into the forties. 173 00:09:01,520 --> 00:09:04,920 Speaker 1: I want to point out, but this is Marcus Simeon 174 00:09:05,400 --> 00:09:08,680 Speaker 1: versus Jordan Lawler, the guy that's done nothing versus the 175 00:09:08,720 --> 00:09:12,720 Speaker 1: guy that has continuously done it. But it's the Angel 176 00:09:12,800 --> 00:09:17,600 Speaker 1: Dynasty question. It is older age versus many, many many 177 00:09:17,679 --> 00:09:21,600 Speaker 1: years coming in of future production. Marcus Simeon projected in 178 00:09:21,679 --> 00:09:24,600 Speaker 1: Steamer twenty eight home or sixteen stolen bases, one hundred runs, 179 00:09:24,600 --> 00:09:28,000 Speaker 1: two sixty five. It's still kind of all there for 180 00:09:28,160 --> 00:09:31,680 Speaker 1: Marcus Simeon, But in some cases people would value Jordan 181 00:09:31,720 --> 00:09:34,240 Speaker 1: Lawler over him in dynasty. So what do you think 182 00:09:34,280 --> 00:09:34,880 Speaker 1: in this battle? 183 00:09:35,120 --> 00:09:38,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, not to repeat what you said, but here's a 184 00:09:38,640 --> 00:09:41,480 Speaker 2: way that I like to classify the dynasty value. There's 185 00:09:41,559 --> 00:09:44,880 Speaker 2: kind of two sources of value. There's production and there's age. 186 00:09:45,280 --> 00:09:48,320 Speaker 2: You know, you want him young and you want a productive. 187 00:09:48,600 --> 00:09:50,920 Speaker 2: If you get guys who are both, that's the top. 188 00:09:51,200 --> 00:09:53,080 Speaker 2: If you get guys who are one or the other, 189 00:09:53,240 --> 00:09:55,560 Speaker 2: that's cool. And if you get guys who are neither one, 190 00:09:56,160 --> 00:09:56,960 Speaker 2: you stink. 191 00:09:57,320 --> 00:10:00,280 Speaker 1: So there might be a third element that you add 192 00:10:00,280 --> 00:10:03,120 Speaker 1: to this, where it's also projection. And I don't mean 193 00:10:03,200 --> 00:10:06,840 Speaker 1: like steat necessarily steamer projection, but when you talk about 194 00:10:06,840 --> 00:10:11,400 Speaker 1: like production versus age, and then you go into projection 195 00:10:11,760 --> 00:10:14,520 Speaker 1: a little bit, which that might that might be a 196 00:10:14,559 --> 00:10:17,440 Speaker 1: softer way of adding to your age element here, but 197 00:10:17,520 --> 00:10:21,040 Speaker 1: you do have to consider the age to projection element 198 00:10:21,080 --> 00:10:23,640 Speaker 1: for a guy like Jordan Lawler versus the production of 199 00:10:23,640 --> 00:10:25,000 Speaker 1: what you're going to see in Simeon. So sorry, I 200 00:10:25,080 --> 00:10:25,760 Speaker 1: just wanted to add that. 201 00:10:26,240 --> 00:10:29,240 Speaker 2: No, yeah, you're absolutely right. I should have clarified that 202 00:10:29,240 --> 00:10:31,520 Speaker 2: that that's what age is. You don't just get to 203 00:10:31,559 --> 00:10:34,560 Speaker 2: be young, and that makes you valuable in dynasty because 204 00:10:34,559 --> 00:10:36,400 Speaker 2: there's a lot of young guys who aren't going to succeed, 205 00:10:36,760 --> 00:10:40,000 Speaker 2: but the young and you know the possibility, you see 206 00:10:40,000 --> 00:10:42,079 Speaker 2: the possibility, you see it for a long time. So 207 00:10:42,640 --> 00:10:45,640 Speaker 2: we're really this is the ultimate battle of one versus 208 00:10:45,679 --> 00:10:48,280 Speaker 2: the other because Simeon is certainly toward the back end 209 00:10:48,320 --> 00:10:51,520 Speaker 2: of his career. Second basemen are not known for having 210 00:10:51,520 --> 00:10:54,640 Speaker 2: the longest MLB careers unless their name is Carlos by Erga, 211 00:10:55,280 --> 00:10:58,280 Speaker 2: So you know, it's probably when you're the end. I 212 00:10:58,320 --> 00:11:01,679 Speaker 2: think though at this point, I'm probably still taking Simeon 213 00:11:02,000 --> 00:11:04,640 Speaker 2: in dynasty. I mean, it really is, Oh, are you 214 00:11:04,679 --> 00:11:06,320 Speaker 2: trying to do one thing or are you trying to 215 00:11:06,360 --> 00:11:08,880 Speaker 2: do the other. But there's some things that Lawler hasn't 216 00:11:08,920 --> 00:11:12,200 Speaker 2: proved at the highest level yet. He hasn't hit hard 217 00:11:12,600 --> 00:11:15,280 Speaker 2: when he's up there, The hard hit percentage is really low. 218 00:11:15,520 --> 00:11:18,560 Speaker 2: The power hasn't shown up yet. Obviously the power is 219 00:11:18,640 --> 00:11:21,760 Speaker 2: there in the minors and the speed is off the charts. 220 00:11:22,200 --> 00:11:25,200 Speaker 2: But you know, between the power not quite being there 221 00:11:25,320 --> 00:11:28,720 Speaker 2: yet and questions about is the hit tool really gonna 222 00:11:28,720 --> 00:11:30,840 Speaker 2: be what it takes for this guy to be a 223 00:11:30,880 --> 00:11:34,640 Speaker 2: super elite player, I'm still going with Simeon two years 224 00:11:34,640 --> 00:11:37,720 Speaker 2: from now, I'm gonna look stupid. So you know, let's 225 00:11:37,760 --> 00:11:38,600 Speaker 2: just put that out there. 226 00:11:38,840 --> 00:11:42,520 Speaker 1: See, that's the that's that's the crux of all of 227 00:11:42,559 --> 00:11:45,160 Speaker 1: this that everybody has to battle with. It's like what 228 00:11:45,200 --> 00:11:49,160 Speaker 1: we tell you now will not be the same for 229 00:11:49,200 --> 00:11:51,520 Speaker 1: the future, and that's what you have to that's what 230 00:11:51,559 --> 00:11:54,599 Speaker 1: you have to battle with. So clearly, you know, I 231 00:11:54,640 --> 00:11:56,240 Speaker 1: think you laid it out properly. If you're a win 232 00:11:56,360 --> 00:11:58,200 Speaker 1: Now team, I have market I'll just tell you right now, 233 00:11:58,200 --> 00:12:02,080 Speaker 1: I have Marcus Simeon over Lawler. At this moment, Marcus 234 00:12:02,120 --> 00:12:05,840 Speaker 1: Simeon is thirty three years old. Marcus Simeon might have 235 00:12:06,640 --> 00:12:10,120 Speaker 1: I think it's easy to guess two really good seasons 236 00:12:10,200 --> 00:12:12,480 Speaker 1: left in him, and then that bell curve of thirty 237 00:12:12,520 --> 00:12:14,480 Speaker 1: six starts to kind of take over a little bit. 238 00:12:14,640 --> 00:12:17,920 Speaker 1: So maybe you worry about that, but there is there 239 00:12:17,960 --> 00:12:21,280 Speaker 1: is a hardcore battle of like what can I get 240 00:12:21,320 --> 00:12:24,360 Speaker 1: from the young player? Like the win Now team is, 241 00:12:24,440 --> 00:12:26,840 Speaker 1: when do I get off of this old guy who's 242 00:12:26,880 --> 00:12:29,320 Speaker 1: still producing for a young player that might be off. 243 00:12:29,360 --> 00:12:31,760 Speaker 1: So you get back to projections for a minute. I 244 00:12:31,760 --> 00:12:34,800 Speaker 1: already told you Simeon Simeon still Simons look very relative 245 00:12:34,840 --> 00:12:36,800 Speaker 1: to where they are. They're projecting a lot less RBI, 246 00:12:37,080 --> 00:12:39,160 Speaker 1: which is interesting because he has had over one hundred 247 00:12:39,200 --> 00:12:42,400 Speaker 1: RBIs two of the last three seasons and they're projecting 248 00:12:42,480 --> 00:12:45,360 Speaker 1: him as sorry Steamer goes the least of all time. 249 00:12:45,880 --> 00:12:48,800 Speaker 1: But batting average is stable. Homer's runs, those are all stable. 250 00:12:48,800 --> 00:12:54,080 Speaker 1: Stolen bases relatively stable. Lawler's actually given an interesting projection 251 00:12:54,480 --> 00:12:58,000 Speaker 1: around one hundred and twenty games, ten homer, seventeen stolen bases. 252 00:12:58,640 --> 00:13:00,600 Speaker 1: You want to pair that out a little. Maybe you're 253 00:13:00,640 --> 00:13:04,520 Speaker 1: talking like fifteen twenty. Let's say so a fifteen twenty 254 00:13:04,600 --> 00:13:06,760 Speaker 1: Jordan Lawler is going to have less run in RBIs 255 00:13:06,760 --> 00:13:09,440 Speaker 1: and probably less batting average. But how long does that 256 00:13:09,559 --> 00:13:11,720 Speaker 1: take to get back? You mentioned the hard hit numbers, 257 00:13:12,320 --> 00:13:14,040 Speaker 1: and you want to point this out and give a 258 00:13:14,040 --> 00:13:17,600 Speaker 1: shout out to Prospects Live, who's got some of the 259 00:13:17,600 --> 00:13:20,000 Speaker 1: triple A data here, But it still speaks to your 260 00:13:20,000 --> 00:13:22,319 Speaker 1: hard hit they've got the PCL hard hit numbers or 261 00:13:22,360 --> 00:13:26,360 Speaker 1: Jordan Laller thirty three percent that's still relatively low. Max 262 00:13:26,360 --> 00:13:29,360 Speaker 1: ev one oh eight point six in the PCL. It 263 00:13:29,400 --> 00:13:33,760 Speaker 1: did never hit the elite territory. You had the ninety 264 00:13:33,880 --> 00:13:36,320 Speaker 1: This is a good one though, ninety fifth percentile exit 265 00:13:36,360 --> 00:13:39,320 Speaker 1: velocity was one oh two point eight. That's a little 266 00:13:39,320 --> 00:13:42,520 Speaker 1: bit better of what you want to see. And there's 267 00:13:42,880 --> 00:13:44,520 Speaker 1: quite a few other things you can kind of start 268 00:13:44,559 --> 00:13:46,600 Speaker 1: to dig in here about who he is as a player. 269 00:13:46,640 --> 00:13:49,040 Speaker 1: But there is some raw power. I think your peak 270 00:13:49,160 --> 00:13:51,640 Speaker 1: value on a Lawler is a fifteen to thirty guy. 271 00:13:51,640 --> 00:13:55,040 Speaker 1: I think the Diamondbacks could run him higher, but I 272 00:13:55,160 --> 00:13:57,800 Speaker 1: also personally think there's a chance he's not a Diamondback. 273 00:13:57,920 --> 00:14:00,320 Speaker 1: I think the Diamondbacks could be aggressive and going after 274 00:14:00,440 --> 00:14:02,600 Speaker 1: in a pitching market and can end up moving on 275 00:14:02,679 --> 00:14:06,800 Speaker 1: from him, But that doesn't necessarily change his value. So yes, 276 00:14:06,960 --> 00:14:09,400 Speaker 1: there's a caveat to this one. What does your team 277 00:14:09,480 --> 00:14:12,360 Speaker 1: look like? You want massive production? Marcus Simons a guy 278 00:14:12,480 --> 00:14:15,320 Speaker 1: I have about ten spots higher than Lawler, But I 279 00:14:15,440 --> 00:14:19,640 Speaker 1: do think Lawler can fit in that team that's still 280 00:14:19,680 --> 00:14:21,760 Speaker 1: trying to win now. You can't have a lot of 281 00:14:21,840 --> 00:14:24,440 Speaker 1: Lawlers otherwise you are now playing for the future, Jesse. 282 00:14:24,560 --> 00:14:28,040 Speaker 1: But like I think, if you start building in, if 283 00:14:28,080 --> 00:14:30,360 Speaker 1: you build in a fifteen to twenty guy out of him, 284 00:14:30,720 --> 00:14:34,240 Speaker 1: you could build a really solid win now team and 285 00:14:34,280 --> 00:14:37,040 Speaker 1: not completely regret passing on Marcus Simeon. 286 00:14:37,120 --> 00:14:40,200 Speaker 2: Don't you think, Yeah, for sure, you could get away 287 00:14:40,240 --> 00:14:42,280 Speaker 2: with it. You know the thing that I look at here, 288 00:14:42,440 --> 00:14:45,200 Speaker 2: this isn't a bad trade. I could very easily see 289 00:14:45,360 --> 00:14:47,600 Speaker 2: a Lawler for Simeon trade. That would be a win 290 00:14:47,720 --> 00:14:51,640 Speaker 2: win in a league. And let's you know, that's the 291 00:14:51,640 --> 00:14:54,720 Speaker 2: thing with Simeon. Lawler is so much younger Simeon, You're 292 00:14:54,760 --> 00:14:56,600 Speaker 2: looking at two yours. How could a to your guy 293 00:14:57,080 --> 00:15:00,880 Speaker 2: be better than a Jordan Lawler who so many years 294 00:15:00,920 --> 00:15:03,360 Speaker 2: ahead of him, so many years ahead of him in 295 00:15:03,400 --> 00:15:05,960 Speaker 2: his career. It keep in mind, one hundred and twenty 296 00:15:05,960 --> 00:15:09,440 Speaker 2: two runs was it one hundred and one hundred rbi? 297 00:15:09,920 --> 00:15:13,920 Speaker 2: He had one hundred rbi leading off every game of 298 00:15:13,960 --> 00:15:17,160 Speaker 2: the season. How the heck do you do that? How 299 00:15:17,160 --> 00:15:20,560 Speaker 2: do you have a hundred rbi leading off every game 300 00:15:20,680 --> 00:15:24,000 Speaker 2: of the season that that doesn't make sense to me. 301 00:15:24,520 --> 00:15:27,280 Speaker 2: This is the absolutely historic value is the problem here? 302 00:15:27,320 --> 00:15:31,040 Speaker 2: Compared to Lawler? We have to consider to Again, I 303 00:15:31,080 --> 00:15:33,440 Speaker 2: love Lawler, I think he's going to come to be 304 00:15:33,680 --> 00:15:37,080 Speaker 2: very valuable, but it's always a percentage play, right. If 305 00:15:37,120 --> 00:15:40,320 Speaker 2: there's a seventy five percent chance that Lawler is going 306 00:15:40,400 --> 00:15:42,280 Speaker 2: to be all that we think Lawler is going to be, 307 00:15:42,440 --> 00:15:46,960 Speaker 2: that's great. But the road to great dynasty teams, if 308 00:15:47,000 --> 00:15:49,880 Speaker 2: you look back on trades, it's littered with guys who 309 00:15:49,880 --> 00:15:51,600 Speaker 2: are supposed to be one thing and turned out to 310 00:15:51,640 --> 00:15:53,000 Speaker 2: be just a little bit less than that. 311 00:15:53,360 --> 00:15:55,760 Speaker 1: Yeah, that's well said, and you know, I would point 312 00:15:55,760 --> 00:15:58,680 Speaker 1: out the other thing if people didn't process this, Lawler's 313 00:15:58,720 --> 00:16:01,560 Speaker 1: a top one hundred dynasty asset. But I do think 314 00:16:01,640 --> 00:16:04,280 Speaker 1: Lawler shares a lot of similarities with like cj Abrams. 315 00:16:04,320 --> 00:16:07,880 Speaker 1: You know, cj Abrams last year did not have any 316 00:16:07,920 --> 00:16:11,880 Speaker 1: of the production to justify the value, and the first 317 00:16:11,920 --> 00:16:15,720 Speaker 1: half of the season did not produce to justify where 318 00:16:15,760 --> 00:16:18,160 Speaker 1: you took him. But then look at him now, we're 319 00:16:18,160 --> 00:16:20,520 Speaker 1: talking about a top thirty five, Top forty over dynasy 320 00:16:20,480 --> 00:16:22,800 Speaker 1: Ascid because it had worked out, So you have to 321 00:16:22,880 --> 00:16:25,600 Speaker 1: understand the process that's built into it. I think Lawler 322 00:16:25,680 --> 00:16:27,960 Speaker 1: shares some similarities where there could be some bumps and 323 00:16:27,960 --> 00:16:30,960 Speaker 1: bruises adjusting. But I've watched Lawler for many, many years 324 00:16:31,000 --> 00:16:34,440 Speaker 1: in the minors AFL recently and I've seen the power. 325 00:16:34,480 --> 00:16:37,640 Speaker 1: I've seen the aggressive, stolen bases, solid defense. I do 326 00:16:37,720 --> 00:16:39,600 Speaker 1: think average could take some time, but again, I think 327 00:16:39,600 --> 00:16:42,640 Speaker 1: it's very reminiscent of cj. Abrams when it clicks, and 328 00:16:42,680 --> 00:16:44,520 Speaker 1: you've got great tutelage. So that's a guy that I 329 00:16:44,560 --> 00:16:47,040 Speaker 1: want to bet on that I still go Simion. Let's 330 00:16:47,080 --> 00:16:50,160 Speaker 1: move on to another one. These are very two different players. 331 00:16:50,680 --> 00:16:53,280 Speaker 1: But I think this is again we are focusing in 332 00:16:53,280 --> 00:16:57,720 Speaker 1: this fifty one to one hundred range and these guys 333 00:16:58,200 --> 00:17:01,120 Speaker 1: this isn't quite the Lawler Simian one, but there's a 334 00:17:01,160 --> 00:17:04,960 Speaker 1: similar different trajectory. I think of how these players are perceived, 335 00:17:05,400 --> 00:17:09,320 Speaker 1: and this battle is Cody Bellinger versus Spencer Torkelsen. Torkelsen 336 00:17:10,000 --> 00:17:12,240 Speaker 1: kind of like the Abrams thing. It's taken a little 337 00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:16,440 Speaker 1: bit average never climbed this year though in fact, he 338 00:17:16,520 --> 00:17:19,920 Speaker 1: has not in the majors ever had a babbit that's 339 00:17:19,960 --> 00:17:22,879 Speaker 1: been over two seventy if you add the miners. He 340 00:17:22,920 --> 00:17:26,760 Speaker 1: has never had added balls in play over three hundred, 341 00:17:27,080 --> 00:17:30,960 Speaker 1: except one stint in high A runs a low babbit. 342 00:17:31,080 --> 00:17:34,440 Speaker 1: You don't like that strikeout's a little bit worrisome. Average, 343 00:17:34,720 --> 00:17:36,760 Speaker 1: it's kind of stunk. He hasn't hit over two point 344 00:17:36,720 --> 00:17:40,280 Speaker 1: fifty at any level since twenty twenty one. Yet he 345 00:17:40,480 --> 00:17:44,719 Speaker 1: just dropped thirty one homers with ninety four RBI. Spencer 346 00:17:44,760 --> 00:17:47,560 Speaker 1: Torkelsen did with the Tigers, and then everyone I think 347 00:17:47,640 --> 00:17:49,760 Speaker 1: kind of knows the story with Cody Bellinger. By the way, 348 00:17:49,800 --> 00:17:54,400 Speaker 1: Spencer Torkelsen is twenty four years old versus Cody Bellinger, 349 00:17:54,440 --> 00:17:58,479 Speaker 1: who is twenty eight years old. Cody refound himself, stopped 350 00:17:58,520 --> 00:18:04,080 Speaker 1: swinging at everything, strikeouts went absolutely bottom. Barrel twenty twenty guy. 351 00:18:04,359 --> 00:18:06,240 Speaker 1: Now we don't know exactly at this moment as we 352 00:18:06,320 --> 00:18:10,840 Speaker 1: record where he's going to play. So Dynasty Spencer Torkelsen 353 00:18:11,240 --> 00:18:12,520 Speaker 1: or Cody Bellinger. 354 00:18:12,119 --> 00:18:16,880 Speaker 2: For you, boy, Cody Bellinger, the player who a good 355 00:18:16,960 --> 00:18:20,600 Speaker 2: fantasy player probably trusts almost least of the highest producing 356 00:18:20,640 --> 00:18:24,320 Speaker 2: guys in fantasy baseball, and in Dynasty versus Spencer Torkelsen, 357 00:18:24,680 --> 00:18:28,280 Speaker 2: who just hasn't landed on his feet the way that 358 00:18:28,320 --> 00:18:32,560 Speaker 2: we all hoped for him to. Torklesen, it kind of 359 00:18:32,600 --> 00:18:35,000 Speaker 2: helped him that he started the season hot and then 360 00:18:35,000 --> 00:18:37,439 Speaker 2: he actually cooled down. If you watch his ex wOBA 361 00:18:37,520 --> 00:18:40,560 Speaker 2: chart over the course of the season, he started out 362 00:18:40,640 --> 00:18:43,520 Speaker 2: good and then he kind of coasted to league average 363 00:18:43,520 --> 00:18:46,000 Speaker 2: for most of the season. But he stayed out there 364 00:18:46,000 --> 00:18:48,320 Speaker 2: one hundred and fifty nine games. He kept hitting. He's 365 00:18:48,359 --> 00:18:51,159 Speaker 2: in the middle of that order, and he kept knocking 366 00:18:51,160 --> 00:18:54,720 Speaker 2: guys in. He kept knocking balls out, and the k 367 00:18:54,840 --> 00:18:59,320 Speaker 2: rate is good for Torklsen. But the man can't run 368 00:18:59,359 --> 00:19:01,880 Speaker 2: for anything, he can't move, and that ain't getting better. 369 00:19:02,040 --> 00:19:06,679 Speaker 2: He's only like twenty three now, so there's not at 370 00:19:06,680 --> 00:19:09,959 Speaker 2: all no, but and it also comes into things like 371 00:19:10,000 --> 00:19:12,560 Speaker 2: the babbeb you know. I mean that the speed is 372 00:19:12,560 --> 00:19:14,760 Speaker 2: something that can help juice your babbuit a little bit 373 00:19:14,800 --> 00:19:18,240 Speaker 2: for some players. So I don't think it's an accident 374 00:19:18,359 --> 00:19:20,199 Speaker 2: that his babbub is low. He's not going to be 375 00:19:20,200 --> 00:19:22,720 Speaker 2: able to run out a whole lot of balls the 376 00:19:22,760 --> 00:19:24,720 Speaker 2: way that some of the players are going to be 377 00:19:24,960 --> 00:19:28,719 Speaker 2: able to do. Bellinger is so wide variance though, because 378 00:19:29,000 --> 00:19:31,960 Speaker 2: he will destroy your team if you take him highly 379 00:19:32,440 --> 00:19:35,560 Speaker 2: and he goes back to the majority of the seasons 380 00:19:35,560 --> 00:19:37,960 Speaker 2: of his career. The thing is he's only twenty eight. 381 00:19:38,200 --> 00:19:40,720 Speaker 2: He's only twenty eight Welsh. How can he be that young? 382 00:19:41,080 --> 00:19:44,600 Speaker 2: He's had these two seasons in all this lousy time, 383 00:19:44,960 --> 00:19:48,240 Speaker 2: and yet he's there. So if you're gonna make me choose, 384 00:19:48,400 --> 00:19:52,920 Speaker 2: I would say I've got to take torkleson the ceiling 385 00:19:53,000 --> 00:19:56,240 Speaker 2: is higher on Bellinger. The guy who wants Bellinger, the 386 00:19:56,280 --> 00:19:59,240 Speaker 2: player who wants Bellinger in your league is that team 387 00:19:59,320 --> 00:20:02,840 Speaker 2: that is just outside of the top teams. Maybe they're 388 00:20:02,840 --> 00:20:05,240 Speaker 2: a fringe playoff team. They're hoping to make a run 389 00:20:05,280 --> 00:20:08,480 Speaker 2: this year, and they need to strike gold. They need 390 00:20:08,520 --> 00:20:11,360 Speaker 2: to hit the lottery to have a player who can 391 00:20:11,560 --> 00:20:14,199 Speaker 2: have the ceiling to take them over the top. And 392 00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:16,600 Speaker 2: that's the kind of team. That's the kind of build 393 00:20:16,640 --> 00:20:20,080 Speaker 2: I would want to invest in, Belicher. Otherwise, I want 394 00:20:20,080 --> 00:20:22,399 Speaker 2: that solid first baseman who's going to go out there 395 00:20:22,440 --> 00:20:25,119 Speaker 2: and hit me thirty runs, thirty home runs for I 396 00:20:25,160 --> 00:20:26,439 Speaker 2: don't know, ten more years. 397 00:20:26,600 --> 00:20:28,600 Speaker 1: One of the interesting things you can build, too, from 398 00:20:28,880 --> 00:20:32,480 Speaker 1: Jesse's responses, is you have been valuing I think higher 399 00:20:32,560 --> 00:20:35,959 Speaker 1: end power versus speed more than anything else. You're not 400 00:20:36,119 --> 00:20:40,720 Speaker 1: as concerned about players that are not providing that really 401 00:20:40,720 --> 00:20:43,159 Speaker 1: solid speed number because we can get it from so 402 00:20:43,160 --> 00:20:45,080 Speaker 1: many other spots. And I think that's some of what 403 00:20:45,160 --> 00:20:47,199 Speaker 1: you're building here. One more hitter, one and then we're 404 00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:48,919 Speaker 1: actually gonna spend a little bit more time on pitching 405 00:20:48,920 --> 00:20:51,439 Speaker 1: than we have in the previous ones. This is another 406 00:20:51,480 --> 00:20:55,680 Speaker 1: speed versus power combo one Adoldice Garcia. Every single year, 407 00:20:55,920 --> 00:20:57,760 Speaker 1: many of us have been like, he can't keep doing it, 408 00:20:57,840 --> 00:21:00,600 Speaker 1: he can't keep doing it. He keeps doing it. This 409 00:21:00,680 --> 00:21:04,679 Speaker 1: comes back to another kind of age, but it's not 410 00:21:04,760 --> 00:21:09,440 Speaker 1: so much production because Jazz Chisholm, another huge dynasty name 411 00:21:09,760 --> 00:21:13,040 Speaker 1: that has fallen off because of constant injuries. I've joked 412 00:21:13,080 --> 00:21:16,440 Speaker 1: that he's the new gen Carlos Stanton of fantasy because 413 00:21:16,440 --> 00:21:20,840 Speaker 1: he cannot stay healthy. Yet when you dream on jazz chism, 414 00:21:21,119 --> 00:21:25,560 Speaker 1: you know what, those those numbers can easily be thirty thirty. 415 00:21:26,640 --> 00:21:30,240 Speaker 1: Putting in projections here for Steamer, just for everybody for 416 00:21:30,320 --> 00:21:33,720 Speaker 1: this season, they're projecting one hundred and thirty eight games 417 00:21:33,880 --> 00:21:36,119 Speaker 1: twenty eight to twenty eight. So in a full season, 418 00:21:36,240 --> 00:21:38,199 Speaker 1: even give him one to fifty, you're looking at a 419 00:21:38,240 --> 00:21:40,760 Speaker 1: thirty thirty guy. You don't see a lot of thirty 420 00:21:40,840 --> 00:21:43,880 Speaker 1: thirty guys outside the top fifty. Yet jazz has kind 421 00:21:43,880 --> 00:21:46,159 Speaker 1: of set up shop outside the top fifty due to 422 00:21:46,160 --> 00:21:50,240 Speaker 1: these constant injuries. Versus a Dooley Garcia who just keeps hitting, 423 00:21:50,320 --> 00:21:54,080 Speaker 1: keeps hitting and is an absolute monster. So jazz chism 424 00:21:54,320 --> 00:21:55,760 Speaker 1: versus Adolice Garcia. 425 00:21:56,000 --> 00:21:58,240 Speaker 2: Did you ever see that skit from I think you 426 00:21:58,240 --> 00:22:02,479 Speaker 2: should leave where the guy does the like pictionary with 427 00:22:02,520 --> 00:22:06,080 Speaker 2: all the people, except he picks all obscure jazz artists. 428 00:22:06,520 --> 00:22:08,880 Speaker 2: Those are the only people in the world more confused 429 00:22:08,920 --> 00:22:12,439 Speaker 2: by jazz than I am. I think, And because this 430 00:22:12,520 --> 00:22:15,240 Speaker 2: jazz jazz chisholm, I don't know what to make of him. 431 00:22:15,520 --> 00:22:20,120 Speaker 2: I guess I'm a Jazz fader. I just can't buy 432 00:22:20,160 --> 00:22:23,600 Speaker 2: him because the guy can't stay healthy and there is 433 00:22:24,040 --> 00:22:26,560 Speaker 2: just that risk with a hit tool, and the upside 434 00:22:26,680 --> 00:22:29,360 Speaker 2: is so high with this guy, and you win with stars. 435 00:22:29,680 --> 00:22:32,560 Speaker 2: Jazz has the better chance of being a star for 436 00:22:32,640 --> 00:22:35,800 Speaker 2: the long term. But there's some things. Garcia is only 437 00:22:35,840 --> 00:22:38,359 Speaker 2: four years older than Jazz. It's not as big of 438 00:22:38,440 --> 00:22:41,879 Speaker 2: an age gap as you would think. And the mileage 439 00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:46,040 Speaker 2: on Garcia is limited. I mean, during the pandemic seasons 440 00:22:46,080 --> 00:22:48,760 Speaker 2: in his first seasons in MLB, he didn't play a 441 00:22:48,800 --> 00:22:52,000 Speaker 2: whole offul lot. You know, his minor league career tapered 442 00:22:52,000 --> 00:22:54,479 Speaker 2: off in like twenty eighteen or something like that, so 443 00:22:55,200 --> 00:22:57,600 Speaker 2: the mileage is lower on him, you know. Coming I 444 00:22:57,640 --> 00:23:00,760 Speaker 2: believe he was a Cuban who came to the United States. 445 00:23:00,840 --> 00:23:02,680 Speaker 2: I remember when he came over. Well, she were doing 446 00:23:02,720 --> 00:23:06,840 Speaker 2: prospecting at that time, and I remember that stuff coming in. 447 00:23:07,359 --> 00:23:10,480 Speaker 2: But Jazz can't put on a shoe until January either. 448 00:23:10,640 --> 00:23:13,320 Speaker 2: You know, he's got some pretty serious offseason surgery going 449 00:23:13,320 --> 00:23:16,160 Speaker 2: on here. I guess, you know, I hope that this 450 00:23:16,240 --> 00:23:20,280 Speaker 2: is not small sample recency bias. With the World Series 451 00:23:20,320 --> 00:23:24,360 Speaker 2: and Adulas Garcia being briefly the best player in the universe, 452 00:23:24,400 --> 00:23:29,800 Speaker 2: it seemed, but I just don't trust Jazz objectively. If 453 00:23:29,840 --> 00:23:33,320 Speaker 2: you're swinging for the Dynasty upside, it probably is Jazz. 454 00:23:33,359 --> 00:23:35,480 Speaker 2: But I would rather have Adullus on my team. 455 00:23:35,880 --> 00:23:39,760 Speaker 1: Yeah, this one I struggle with. I believe, if I'm 456 00:23:39,760 --> 00:23:43,159 Speaker 1: looking here, I actually have Adulies higher than Jazz. I 457 00:23:43,200 --> 00:23:45,560 Speaker 1: have him inside the top fifty. Many others do not. 458 00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:49,200 Speaker 1: I've got Jazz right at that top fifty marker. Jazz 459 00:23:49,240 --> 00:23:52,560 Speaker 1: has only played over one hundred games once in four years. 460 00:23:52,840 --> 00:23:55,400 Speaker 1: It's crazy. He's never played one hundred and twenty five 461 00:23:55,440 --> 00:23:58,640 Speaker 1: games in a season. Adulis Garcia has played at least 462 00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:00,879 Speaker 1: one hundred and forty eight games three straight seasons. Has 463 00:24:00,920 --> 00:24:03,919 Speaker 1: cut his strikeout percentage every single year, has raised his 464 00:24:04,000 --> 00:24:07,240 Speaker 1: walk percentage every single year, and has maintained in the 465 00:24:07,320 --> 00:24:10,359 Speaker 1: two forty batting average range every single year that I 466 00:24:10,440 --> 00:24:12,920 Speaker 1: mentioned as well, his barrel percentage and hard hit has 467 00:24:13,000 --> 00:24:17,560 Speaker 1: raised every single year. Projections thirty one homers quite a 468 00:24:17,640 --> 00:24:21,040 Speaker 1: drop on the homers, but double digit stolen bases. You know, 469 00:24:21,160 --> 00:24:24,080 Speaker 1: Jazz is they're actually about five years difference. If you 470 00:24:24,119 --> 00:24:26,879 Speaker 1: add in months, by the way, so there is a 471 00:24:26,920 --> 00:24:31,560 Speaker 1: significant difference. But if you're talking about usage on those wheels, 472 00:24:31,680 --> 00:24:34,160 Speaker 1: there's not a lot there with the Dolese, and you're 473 00:24:34,160 --> 00:24:36,520 Speaker 1: going to get pretty massive production. So we've picked on 474 00:24:36,560 --> 00:24:38,920 Speaker 1: a couple of rangers that are older. But you know, 475 00:24:39,160 --> 00:24:42,199 Speaker 1: I don't think you lose with Jazz like you do 476 00:24:42,600 --> 00:24:45,159 Speaker 1: with some of these other dynasty options. It's just the 477 00:24:45,200 --> 00:24:48,880 Speaker 1: mistime is where you lose. So we both have taken 478 00:24:48,920 --> 00:24:51,760 Speaker 1: a Dolese heer. So some pitching questions, I throw this 479 00:24:51,880 --> 00:24:54,720 Speaker 1: just directly out to you, like the many machado about 480 00:24:54,720 --> 00:24:59,080 Speaker 1: Corbyn Burns. Corbin Burns has faded in some eyes, had 481 00:24:59,280 --> 00:25:01,920 Speaker 1: really weird see this year. At one time it was 482 00:25:01,920 --> 00:25:04,760 Speaker 1: probably an easy top twenty five dynasty asset. And I 483 00:25:04,840 --> 00:25:07,239 Speaker 1: know this sounds crazy as a picture, but things are 484 00:25:07,280 --> 00:25:09,600 Speaker 1: moving in the little bit the wronger. I don't want 485 00:25:09,600 --> 00:25:11,879 Speaker 1: to say it's like drastically because he did find himself 486 00:25:11,920 --> 00:25:14,800 Speaker 1: some this year. But Corbyn Burns, I think one of 487 00:25:14,800 --> 00:25:17,240 Speaker 1: the more polarizing twenty nine year old. This is a 488 00:25:17,280 --> 00:25:20,000 Speaker 1: good time for pictures, but may not be with the Brewers. 489 00:25:20,400 --> 00:25:22,800 Speaker 1: What say you on his dynasty value? Should he be 490 00:25:22,880 --> 00:25:26,040 Speaker 1: higher than fifty. And you know, what's your general consensus 491 00:25:26,080 --> 00:25:26,880 Speaker 1: on him in dynasty. 492 00:25:27,040 --> 00:25:30,000 Speaker 2: Well, as you know, I'm sitting here in Wisconsin and 493 00:25:30,320 --> 00:25:33,440 Speaker 2: I am close to following the Brewers, and I would 494 00:25:33,480 --> 00:25:36,400 Speaker 2: tell you stat cast for Corbyn Burns is redder than 495 00:25:36,440 --> 00:25:39,760 Speaker 2: camp Randall on a football saturday out in Madison. It 496 00:25:39,840 --> 00:25:44,160 Speaker 2: is still looking great on stat cast for this guy, 497 00:25:44,200 --> 00:25:47,520 Speaker 2: Corbyn Burns. It's he's still elite everywhere that it counts. 498 00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:50,000 Speaker 2: As far as I'm concerned now, I think the thing 499 00:25:50,040 --> 00:25:52,520 Speaker 2: that's gonna happen with Corbyn Burns in the near future 500 00:25:52,600 --> 00:25:54,600 Speaker 2: is it's all going to be about when is he 501 00:25:54,640 --> 00:25:56,199 Speaker 2: going to be traded? Where is he going to go? 502 00:25:56,720 --> 00:25:58,480 Speaker 2: And what kind of a park is he going to 503 00:25:58,600 --> 00:26:00,720 Speaker 2: land in? You know what is going to happen to 504 00:26:00,800 --> 00:26:03,160 Speaker 2: him at that point because he's kind of graduating from 505 00:26:03,200 --> 00:26:07,440 Speaker 2: that arbitration year thing that he's in now. Marking any 506 00:26:07,680 --> 00:26:10,280 Speaker 2: picture as at the top of the rings like that 507 00:26:10,400 --> 00:26:14,000 Speaker 2: in the top fifty is an extremely dicey proposition. But 508 00:26:14,119 --> 00:26:16,199 Speaker 2: I think Corbyn Burns is going to bounce into that 509 00:26:16,359 --> 00:26:18,840 Speaker 2: territory off and on. I don't know that I would 510 00:26:18,840 --> 00:26:21,000 Speaker 2: get him all the way into the top fifty, but 511 00:26:21,080 --> 00:26:24,080 Speaker 2: I still think if he's in your sixties or your seventies, 512 00:26:24,320 --> 00:26:27,720 Speaker 2: he's still going to be, you know, in my ranks. 513 00:26:27,720 --> 00:26:31,120 Speaker 2: In my estimation, I put probably guys who are still 514 00:26:31,119 --> 00:26:33,920 Speaker 2: in my top ten pictures in that range. I think 515 00:26:33,960 --> 00:26:38,320 Speaker 2: Corbyn Burns definitely belongs in that part of the conversation. 516 00:26:38,720 --> 00:26:41,920 Speaker 1: Corbyn Burns or Tyler Glasstow Dynasty. 517 00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:45,480 Speaker 2: Absolutely Corbyn Burns. I don't think. I don't see glass 518 00:26:45,520 --> 00:26:46,320 Speaker 2: Snow on that level. 519 00:26:46,440 --> 00:26:51,600 Speaker 1: Corbyn Burns or Luis Castillo. Castillo's about a year and 520 00:26:51,640 --> 00:26:55,680 Speaker 1: a half older than Corbyn Burns but has been absolute elite. 521 00:26:55,880 --> 00:26:59,600 Speaker 2: Yeah, Burns still on that one. I you know, Castillo's great, 522 00:26:59,760 --> 00:27:01,560 Speaker 2: but I think Burns is still going to give you, 523 00:27:01,800 --> 00:27:02,520 Speaker 2: deliver you more. 524 00:27:02,680 --> 00:27:05,000 Speaker 1: How about Corbin Burns are Uri Perez? 525 00:27:07,440 --> 00:27:08,480 Speaker 2: Why you get to do that to me? 526 00:27:09,040 --> 00:27:09,280 Speaker 1: Chris? 527 00:27:09,280 --> 00:27:10,880 Speaker 2: Why you get it do that to me? I think 528 00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:15,840 Speaker 2: in Dynasty, Uri Prez might actually be valued higher. But boy, 529 00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:19,359 Speaker 2: it's a small sample, isn't it. He's incredibly young you 530 00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:22,080 Speaker 2: want to talk about. I mean, Burns is already want 531 00:27:22,080 --> 00:27:25,000 Speaker 2: to say young, right, I mean, and he he's had 532 00:27:25,000 --> 00:27:27,080 Speaker 2: the chance to fall off that rate. But what are 533 00:27:27,080 --> 00:27:29,320 Speaker 2: we expecting from Uri Perez? Are we thinking he's going 534 00:27:29,400 --> 00:27:31,520 Speaker 2: to be doc goodin for twenty straight years? I mean, 535 00:27:31,680 --> 00:27:34,879 Speaker 2: what Uri is going to have up years and down years? 536 00:27:35,359 --> 00:27:39,359 Speaker 2: I think at this point the better play in Dynasty 537 00:27:39,640 --> 00:27:43,320 Speaker 2: would be to take Corbyn Burns. But that doesn't mean 538 00:27:43,320 --> 00:27:45,760 Speaker 2: that Uri Prez isn't going to have an amazing career. 539 00:27:45,960 --> 00:27:49,399 Speaker 1: It's an interesting battle with the pitchers overall. What is 540 00:27:49,480 --> 00:27:54,040 Speaker 1: your overarching thesis on starting pitchers and Dynasty and specifically 541 00:27:54,119 --> 00:27:57,639 Speaker 1: Top one hundred, Like, what type of an investment are you? You? 542 00:27:57,800 --> 00:28:01,639 Speaker 1: Steadfast like? I will not have you know, let's say 543 00:28:01,680 --> 00:28:04,720 Speaker 1: you're doing a startup Dynasty draft. Win is the first 544 00:28:04,760 --> 00:28:07,919 Speaker 1: time you're really considering pitching or you like hard stray 545 00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:09,320 Speaker 1: away from pitching in Dynasty. 546 00:28:09,520 --> 00:28:14,080 Speaker 2: Well, the problem with pitching is it's absolutely the worst, 547 00:28:14,840 --> 00:28:18,359 Speaker 2: except it's also half the game. So we're stuck. We 548 00:28:18,520 --> 00:28:21,520 Speaker 2: have to have pitchers. We can't win without them. You 549 00:28:21,560 --> 00:28:23,960 Speaker 2: can't win with him, you can't win without him. I 550 00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:26,920 Speaker 2: think in some ways my new philosophy and I haven't 551 00:28:27,400 --> 00:28:30,560 Speaker 2: checked this out statistically yet, but I'm starting to feel 552 00:28:30,560 --> 00:28:33,440 Speaker 2: in my life like I never want to Trutch Tuss 553 00:28:33,920 --> 00:28:37,000 Speaker 2: trust a hitter over thirty, and I never want to 554 00:28:37,080 --> 00:28:40,400 Speaker 2: trust a pitcher under thirty because I think the older 555 00:28:40,440 --> 00:28:44,520 Speaker 2: pitchers are the ones who consistently deliver value, and the 556 00:28:44,560 --> 00:28:46,800 Speaker 2: twenty seven year old starting pitchers are the ones who 557 00:28:46,880 --> 00:28:50,760 Speaker 2: consistently deliver heartache. I want to see guys like Corbin 558 00:28:50,800 --> 00:28:54,000 Speaker 2: Burns who put up several years of consistent value, and 559 00:28:54,080 --> 00:28:58,640 Speaker 2: Luis Castillo the same way. Over reliance on the Uri 560 00:28:58,680 --> 00:29:02,120 Speaker 2: Perez's of the world. Even though URI's stuff is absolutely 561 00:29:02,160 --> 00:29:05,880 Speaker 2: doggone amazing, it's it's rare to have a picture who's 562 00:29:05,920 --> 00:29:09,200 Speaker 2: going to spend most of his twenties producing at an elite, 563 00:29:09,400 --> 00:29:12,800 Speaker 2: super elite level. There's going to be all kinds of fluctuation. 564 00:29:13,120 --> 00:29:14,880 Speaker 2: So in terms of when I take them in a 565 00:29:14,960 --> 00:29:18,280 Speaker 2: dynasty startup, I think I can get them a little 566 00:29:18,280 --> 00:29:22,440 Speaker 2: bit later. I did a startup dynasty this year my 567 00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:25,800 Speaker 2: four sport diesel leak that I run through the DSL 568 00:29:25,840 --> 00:29:28,920 Speaker 2: pod and I got an amazing number of pictures of courts. 569 00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:31,800 Speaker 2: That one also has a salary component to it, So 570 00:29:32,280 --> 00:29:34,000 Speaker 2: a lot of guys were falling through, but I got 571 00:29:34,040 --> 00:29:36,440 Speaker 2: Nola and Snell and you know, a whole bunch of 572 00:29:36,440 --> 00:29:41,000 Speaker 2: guys who fell through the cracks. Because people don't want 573 00:29:41,040 --> 00:29:43,760 Speaker 2: to trust the pictures. They fade the pictures, and everybody 574 00:29:43,800 --> 00:29:47,800 Speaker 2: I think over invests in glass nows and perezes in 575 00:29:47,880 --> 00:29:50,320 Speaker 2: terms of the actual value they're going to give you. 576 00:29:50,920 --> 00:29:52,600 Speaker 1: It wasn't a dynasty, but I just did a mock 577 00:29:52,680 --> 00:29:54,400 Speaker 1: with CBS, and I did. 578 00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:54,760 Speaker 2: I did. 579 00:29:54,760 --> 00:29:56,920 Speaker 1: I tried a strategy where I just waited on pitching. 580 00:29:57,040 --> 00:29:59,120 Speaker 1: I waited, wait to wait, and this's not dynasty, but 581 00:29:59,280 --> 00:30:01,120 Speaker 1: I wait. I waited to the eleventh round for my 582 00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:04,680 Speaker 1: first starter, and I ended up getting these old, boring guys. 583 00:30:04,720 --> 00:30:07,400 Speaker 1: But I got like Shane Bieber and Sonny Gray, and 584 00:30:07,480 --> 00:30:09,680 Speaker 1: I was just getting guys that could eat innings with strikeouts. 585 00:30:09,880 --> 00:30:12,120 Speaker 1: I didn't hate it. I took closers early, and again 586 00:30:12,160 --> 00:30:14,560 Speaker 1: this was redraft. I got my closers early, I got 587 00:30:14,600 --> 00:30:17,240 Speaker 1: lots of hitters, speed power, and then I just took 588 00:30:17,320 --> 00:30:20,040 Speaker 1: some old, more boring values. And I think one thing 589 00:30:20,080 --> 00:30:22,240 Speaker 1: we might be pulling out of this as well, when 590 00:30:22,280 --> 00:30:25,160 Speaker 1: you get into that post fifty range. I think this 591 00:30:25,200 --> 00:30:28,320 Speaker 1: is signifying guys at Corbyn Burns and many Machado might 592 00:30:28,360 --> 00:30:31,520 Speaker 1: be buys in Dynasty right now because their value is 593 00:30:32,160 --> 00:30:35,280 Speaker 1: just ultimately lower and pitching in general is tougher. Though 594 00:30:35,320 --> 00:30:39,120 Speaker 1: I will say this, It is better to it is 595 00:30:39,160 --> 00:30:42,280 Speaker 1: easier to acquire pitching in startup dynasties than it is 596 00:30:42,360 --> 00:30:45,280 Speaker 1: trading for them in dynasties. I find trading four pitching 597 00:30:45,280 --> 00:30:48,680 Speaker 1: in dynasty incredibly difficult, pending the league a couple other 598 00:30:48,960 --> 00:30:52,080 Speaker 1: ones A plow through here. This is a pitching philosophy thing. 599 00:30:52,080 --> 00:30:54,040 Speaker 1: You've kind of already answered this, but I'm gonna give 600 00:30:54,080 --> 00:30:57,080 Speaker 1: you two pairings. These are pitchers that live in the 601 00:30:57,200 --> 00:30:59,280 Speaker 1: fifty one to one hundred dynasty range. You can have 602 00:31:00,080 --> 00:31:04,000 Speaker 1: Bobby Miller with the Los Angeles Dodgers breakout season and 603 00:31:04,280 --> 00:31:07,200 Speaker 1: Kyle Bradish who just had a huge breakout season with 604 00:31:07,360 --> 00:31:11,000 Speaker 1: the Orioles. Versus you can have Joe Ryan with the 605 00:31:11,000 --> 00:31:14,520 Speaker 1: Twins or Aaron Nola free agent who just kind of 606 00:31:14,520 --> 00:31:17,640 Speaker 1: rebounded off of his dynasty value being pretty low. So 607 00:31:17,720 --> 00:31:21,520 Speaker 1: these are a little bit older, more track record pitchers 608 00:31:21,880 --> 00:31:24,640 Speaker 1: versus huge upside in Bobby Miller with the Dodgers and 609 00:31:24,720 --> 00:31:27,680 Speaker 1: Kyle Bradish with the Orioles. Again, they sit in that range, 610 00:31:27,920 --> 00:31:29,880 Speaker 1: but you can have one of these two pairings. 611 00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:34,480 Speaker 2: Boy, this is tough, but here's how I would approach this. 612 00:31:35,040 --> 00:31:37,880 Speaker 2: I'm going to take Bradish and Ryan and I'm going 613 00:31:37,960 --> 00:31:40,880 Speaker 2: to cross them off and say that I've got a 614 00:31:40,920 --> 00:31:43,000 Speaker 2: little bit of a par situation there. These are both 615 00:31:43,040 --> 00:31:45,680 Speaker 2: guys who we didn't really expect to jump up the 616 00:31:45,720 --> 00:31:48,040 Speaker 2: way that they did this year. These are both guys 617 00:31:48,040 --> 00:31:53,600 Speaker 2: who are not overwhelming fastball type stuff. Especially Ryan does 618 00:31:53,680 --> 00:31:57,240 Speaker 2: not have it like that. And so I'm going to 619 00:31:57,280 --> 00:31:59,480 Speaker 2: take those two and say they're roughly equivalent. And then 620 00:31:59,480 --> 00:32:02,640 Speaker 2: it turns into to Miller versus Nola, and that's no easier. 621 00:32:02,720 --> 00:32:05,719 Speaker 2: We have one of these super races that you know, 622 00:32:05,920 --> 00:32:09,959 Speaker 2: it had a down year relative to his overall career, 623 00:32:10,160 --> 00:32:14,040 Speaker 2: versus the Bobby Miller who's coming up, who's coming into 624 00:32:14,080 --> 00:32:18,200 Speaker 2: that world. And I'm just telling you, I think that 625 00:32:18,760 --> 00:32:21,280 Speaker 2: Aaron Nola is going to be my pick here. And 626 00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:25,800 Speaker 2: this is so hard. I keep dissing these young pitchers. 627 00:32:25,680 --> 00:32:30,840 Speaker 3: But how many guys, yeah, like, how many superstar, top 628 00:32:30,880 --> 00:32:36,400 Speaker 3: prospect twenty four year old pitchers have had careers that 629 00:32:36,560 --> 00:32:40,320 Speaker 3: are worse than Adam wayn Wright's after he got boring, 630 00:32:40,800 --> 00:32:43,560 Speaker 3: you know, like at like thirty four plus year old 631 00:32:43,600 --> 00:32:48,200 Speaker 3: Adam Waynwright had that was a better fantasy career then 632 00:32:48,360 --> 00:32:50,280 Speaker 3: most of the guys who come up who we want 633 00:32:50,280 --> 00:32:53,120 Speaker 3: all this from I want the upside. 634 00:32:53,240 --> 00:32:56,040 Speaker 2: I get it. Bobby Miller could be great. I think 635 00:32:56,080 --> 00:32:59,400 Speaker 2: Bobby Miller is going to drive people crazy for the 636 00:32:59,440 --> 00:33:02,760 Speaker 2: next couple of because that's what happens with these young guys. 637 00:33:03,040 --> 00:33:05,120 Speaker 1: One more battle, one more breakdown, and then the quick 638 00:33:05,160 --> 00:33:07,880 Speaker 1: hitters KODEI Senga versus Blake Snell. We have no idea 639 00:33:07,920 --> 00:33:10,280 Speaker 1: where Blake Snell's going to go coming off a huge year. 640 00:33:10,280 --> 00:33:12,280 Speaker 1: If you were at the first Pitch conference, you would 641 00:33:12,320 --> 00:33:14,800 Speaker 1: know some people do not like Blake Snell this coming year. 642 00:33:14,840 --> 00:33:17,920 Speaker 1: Projections probably not as favorable with the high walks. Quote. 643 00:33:17,920 --> 00:33:20,360 Speaker 1: I Singa fixed some of his walk issues with big 644 00:33:20,360 --> 00:33:22,440 Speaker 1: strikeout numbers, so you got to take a bet. I 645 00:33:22,440 --> 00:33:25,360 Speaker 1: think these guys are right around the same age. I 646 00:33:25,360 --> 00:33:28,080 Speaker 1: think Senga's thirty and I think Snell is thirty one, 647 00:33:28,520 --> 00:33:30,920 Speaker 1: so I could have that. I'll look while you're going here, 648 00:33:30,920 --> 00:33:32,720 Speaker 1: but pick your side, Senga or Snell. 649 00:33:32,840 --> 00:33:37,240 Speaker 2: Well. I think the poltergeists in Petco liked Blake Snell 650 00:33:37,440 --> 00:33:40,360 Speaker 2: and hated everybody else because Blake got himself a pretty 651 00:33:40,360 --> 00:33:42,960 Speaker 2: good run this year. That part of the whole thing 652 00:33:43,000 --> 00:33:45,640 Speaker 2: on him is how long of an outing is he 653 00:33:45,720 --> 00:33:48,440 Speaker 2: going to get, you know, because it's sort of been proven. 654 00:33:48,480 --> 00:33:50,360 Speaker 2: This is one of the guys who benefits from being 655 00:33:50,360 --> 00:33:53,320 Speaker 2: pulled earlier. It's not just in that World Series game 656 00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:55,840 Speaker 2: where that turned out to be true. Blake Snell was 657 00:33:55,960 --> 00:33:58,480 Speaker 2: out over his skis this year. Code I Senga was 658 00:33:58,600 --> 00:34:03,640 Speaker 2: quietly pitching wonderfully this year, And even if Snell walks 659 00:34:03,680 --> 00:34:06,600 Speaker 2: away with the hardware this offseason, I think I'm gonna 660 00:34:06,640 --> 00:34:10,239 Speaker 2: take Code I Singa in terms of what he's going 661 00:34:10,280 --> 00:34:12,960 Speaker 2: to become in the future. Snell has had some very 662 00:34:12,960 --> 00:34:16,720 Speaker 2: frustrating seasons. He's had some great seasons, and it's really 663 00:34:16,719 --> 00:34:19,280 Speaker 2: hard to tell what you're going to get next. CODEI 664 00:34:19,520 --> 00:34:23,000 Speaker 2: is established, We've got a track record from him, albeit 665 00:34:23,120 --> 00:34:26,440 Speaker 2: not all in MLB, and I don't know, maybe this 666 00:34:26,480 --> 00:34:28,239 Speaker 2: is playing against the type of what I've been saying 667 00:34:28,239 --> 00:34:30,600 Speaker 2: to the other ones, but I like Kodai here, how 668 00:34:30,600 --> 00:34:31,720 Speaker 2: about you. 669 00:34:31,719 --> 00:34:33,520 Speaker 1: You know, they're actually about the same age, by the way. 670 00:34:33,560 --> 00:34:35,239 Speaker 1: I think Snell might be a couple months older. Yeah, 671 00:34:35,280 --> 00:34:37,560 Speaker 1: Snell's like two months older, but they're both thirty. You know, 672 00:34:37,600 --> 00:34:41,680 Speaker 1: It's interesting Blake Snell actually has a better expected era 673 00:34:41,920 --> 00:34:44,120 Speaker 1: than CODEI Singer and CODAI sang is coming off of 674 00:34:44,160 --> 00:34:48,000 Speaker 1: a three ERA season. Their walks were generally the same, 675 00:34:48,560 --> 00:34:52,799 Speaker 1: and Snell's k per nine is almost a full k 676 00:34:52,920 --> 00:34:56,120 Speaker 1: pre nine higher. You don't have the home run issues, 677 00:34:56,280 --> 00:34:59,439 Speaker 1: not that Senga had. I think I actually lean Blake 678 00:34:59,480 --> 00:35:01,680 Speaker 1: Snell a little bit, and I really like Kodai Senga, 679 00:35:01,719 --> 00:35:04,080 Speaker 1: and I'm targeting him here. I'm there. I know there 680 00:35:04,120 --> 00:35:08,239 Speaker 1: are some absolute command concerns overall with him, and there's 681 00:35:08,239 --> 00:35:11,520 Speaker 1: a huge discrepancy of era to expect the era. But 682 00:35:11,920 --> 00:35:15,320 Speaker 1: given the same age, given Snell's ability to start pushing 683 00:35:15,360 --> 00:35:17,800 Speaker 1: the innings a little bit more for him to get 684 00:35:17,800 --> 00:35:19,720 Speaker 1: I mean one hundred and eighty innings, it's the second 685 00:35:19,800 --> 00:35:22,360 Speaker 1: time he's hit that marker. I think he's pushing health. 686 00:35:22,440 --> 00:35:24,160 Speaker 1: He is a better management of who he is as 687 00:35:24,200 --> 00:35:26,840 Speaker 1: a pitcher. I'm gonna lean Snell on this one. I 688 00:35:26,840 --> 00:35:29,520 Speaker 1: think it's very, very close, though not one hundred percent. 689 00:35:29,880 --> 00:35:35,600 Speaker 1: Kode Senga is a finished product. Speaking of Yoshinobu Yamamoto 690 00:35:35,800 --> 00:35:40,160 Speaker 1: is coming over. He is a huge, huge, huge target 691 00:35:40,200 --> 00:35:42,680 Speaker 1: for a lot of people, but is a huge unknown. 692 00:35:43,440 --> 00:35:47,920 Speaker 1: The simplistic idea behind him is like Kodei Sengo with 693 00:35:48,000 --> 00:35:51,719 Speaker 1: better command, which that would almost build you into being 694 00:35:51,760 --> 00:35:54,279 Speaker 1: inside the top fifty. But what are your thoughts on 695 00:35:54,440 --> 00:35:58,440 Speaker 1: Yoshinobu Yamamoto, also younger than kodey Sing I believe twenty five, 696 00:35:58,800 --> 00:36:01,400 Speaker 1: twenty five to twenty six coming over? Where do you 697 00:36:01,400 --> 00:36:03,759 Speaker 1: think he is an and you feel free to talk 698 00:36:03,800 --> 00:36:05,960 Speaker 1: about him relative to like the guys we've talked about 699 00:36:06,000 --> 00:36:09,239 Speaker 1: Bobby Miller, Bradish, Aaronola, kode I, Sena Lake Snell. Where 700 00:36:09,239 --> 00:36:10,040 Speaker 1: do you think he belongs? 701 00:36:10,200 --> 00:36:13,200 Speaker 2: He is the hotness coming in. He is absolutely one 702 00:36:13,239 --> 00:36:17,120 Speaker 2: of the better Japanese prospects or Japanese players we've had 703 00:36:17,400 --> 00:36:20,480 Speaker 2: come over in a little bit. And it is just 704 00:36:20,600 --> 00:36:23,319 Speaker 2: so uncertain what these guys are going to be. There's 705 00:36:23,360 --> 00:36:28,120 Speaker 2: such a wide variation for players. And Hasan Kim, I 706 00:36:28,200 --> 00:36:30,440 Speaker 2: get it, that's Korea, that's not Japan, and Korea is 707 00:36:30,480 --> 00:36:33,320 Speaker 2: a little bit lower level of competition. But that's a 708 00:36:33,360 --> 00:36:36,080 Speaker 2: guy who came over and we wanted him to be 709 00:36:36,200 --> 00:36:38,160 Speaker 2: a big thing. And I know we're talking about him 710 00:36:38,160 --> 00:36:39,240 Speaker 2: in those prospects stuff. 711 00:36:39,320 --> 00:36:41,279 Speaker 1: Remember how high I was on him too, and how 712 00:36:41,320 --> 00:36:42,480 Speaker 1: wrong it looked. 713 00:36:42,400 --> 00:36:44,560 Speaker 2: Looked in the first year, and then the second year 714 00:36:44,600 --> 00:36:48,000 Speaker 2: he was great. You know, he's beloved in the second year, 715 00:36:48,160 --> 00:36:53,560 Speaker 2: even the San Diego fans adored him. But Yamamoto is 716 00:36:53,640 --> 00:36:55,640 Speaker 2: just so uncertain if he could come in and beat 717 00:36:55,680 --> 00:36:58,120 Speaker 2: kode I Sena, And I know that's unfair. I can't 718 00:36:58,160 --> 00:37:02,040 Speaker 2: just comp based on the passport that these guys are 719 00:37:02,040 --> 00:37:05,359 Speaker 2: coming in with. But I think the reputation he's coming with, 720 00:37:05,400 --> 00:37:07,680 Speaker 2: and I have to rely on the people who have 721 00:37:07,800 --> 00:37:10,480 Speaker 2: a little closer look at the situation, is that he's 722 00:37:10,520 --> 00:37:13,680 Speaker 2: going to be better than Senga and younger. And if 723 00:37:13,719 --> 00:37:17,360 Speaker 2: that's the case, I probably would would rate him pretty high. 724 00:37:17,360 --> 00:37:19,600 Speaker 2: In this group of pictures that we've talked about so far, 725 00:37:20,040 --> 00:37:22,919 Speaker 2: I do think I would still have burns over him 726 00:37:23,880 --> 00:37:30,120 Speaker 2: and maybe Nola, But beyond that, he's got the you know, 727 00:37:30,160 --> 00:37:32,920 Speaker 2: he's got the upside and a little bit of the 728 00:37:32,920 --> 00:37:35,839 Speaker 2: maturity that I would think that maybe after a year 729 00:37:35,920 --> 00:37:38,680 Speaker 2: or so of adjustment to MLB, he would be right 730 00:37:38,760 --> 00:37:41,600 Speaker 2: up in that level. Now, sometimes it's a matter of, 731 00:37:41,840 --> 00:37:44,080 Speaker 2: Like with Senga, part of the thing, you know, he 732 00:37:44,239 --> 00:37:47,200 Speaker 2: was adjusting to MLB, but then the pictures were adjusting 733 00:37:47,200 --> 00:37:50,319 Speaker 2: to him too, So we'll have to see what that 734 00:37:50,400 --> 00:37:52,880 Speaker 2: process looks like. But how about Yea, I like ya 735 00:37:53,400 --> 00:37:53,799 Speaker 2: quite a bit. 736 00:37:54,000 --> 00:37:58,319 Speaker 1: How about Yoshua Yamamoto versus Freddy Peralta, who would you 737 00:37:58,320 --> 00:37:58,719 Speaker 1: sign on? 738 00:37:59,480 --> 00:38:05,319 Speaker 2: Probably, oh, geez, I would probably take Yamamoto because I'm 739 00:38:05,360 --> 00:38:10,640 Speaker 2: tired of seeing Peralta hurt missing time. There's a reliability 740 00:38:10,680 --> 00:38:13,920 Speaker 2: factor there, so you know, just because he's worn a 741 00:38:13,920 --> 00:38:18,239 Speaker 2: Brews jersey, I don't always trust that guy to I 742 00:38:18,440 --> 00:38:22,239 Speaker 2: want Yamamoto to be more than what Paralta has been 743 00:38:22,280 --> 00:38:24,640 Speaker 2: able to be in the big leagues, and I think 744 00:38:24,680 --> 00:38:25,799 Speaker 2: that there's a good chance of that. 745 00:38:26,200 --> 00:38:28,920 Speaker 1: I think Yamamoto is like a top sixty guy. I 746 00:38:29,000 --> 00:38:30,960 Speaker 1: think that's the range that he's got to sit with 747 00:38:31,000 --> 00:38:33,839 Speaker 1: potential for hire. I think you're gonna ask yourself real 748 00:38:33,920 --> 00:38:37,080 Speaker 1: questions between him and a Wheeler and him and a Gosman. 749 00:38:37,120 --> 00:38:40,200 Speaker 1: A Gossman and Wheeler both very, very, very productive and 750 00:38:40,239 --> 00:38:42,640 Speaker 1: probably have a couple more years ahead, which I think 751 00:38:42,680 --> 00:38:44,600 Speaker 1: is easier to justify. But you might have an eight 752 00:38:44,680 --> 00:38:46,680 Speaker 1: year gauge gap between those guys. So I think he 753 00:38:46,760 --> 00:38:51,480 Speaker 1: lives in that general vicinity Wheeler Glass now code is Singa. 754 00:38:51,560 --> 00:38:53,560 Speaker 1: He's right in that spot. You can kind of pick 755 00:38:53,560 --> 00:38:57,520 Speaker 1: your poison. Maybe destination will be important. Quick hitters closers 756 00:38:57,640 --> 00:38:59,719 Speaker 1: fifty one to one hundred, you doing it. 757 00:39:00,120 --> 00:39:04,120 Speaker 2: No, you can't. Even the most elite. You have to 758 00:39:04,160 --> 00:39:07,080 Speaker 2: move closers when you're at that level. You need closers 759 00:39:07,440 --> 00:39:12,000 Speaker 2: when you're close to competing. So I guess maybe you 760 00:39:12,000 --> 00:39:15,719 Speaker 2: could draft the very top closers, but no, I'm not 761 00:39:15,840 --> 00:39:18,280 Speaker 2: there in the top one hundred. 762 00:39:17,680 --> 00:39:21,319 Speaker 1: Fifty one to one hundred Dynasty rank targets. We've talked 763 00:39:21,360 --> 00:39:23,160 Speaker 1: a lot about guys, and maybe a couple we've talked 764 00:39:23,160 --> 00:39:25,560 Speaker 1: about have been them. Two or three targets in this 765 00:39:25,800 --> 00:39:29,279 Speaker 1: range that you know, respective to wherever you are, you 766 00:39:29,400 --> 00:39:30,520 Speaker 1: just really want to get. 767 00:39:30,760 --> 00:39:34,759 Speaker 2: I would say that Riley Green is a guy I 768 00:39:34,800 --> 00:39:38,319 Speaker 2: think you might be a little higher on him than 769 00:39:38,480 --> 00:39:41,600 Speaker 2: I think the industry consensus might be. But he is 770 00:39:41,600 --> 00:39:43,319 Speaker 2: a guy who I think is going to come into 771 00:39:43,320 --> 00:39:45,759 Speaker 2: his own and I'm hoping to get in some of 772 00:39:45,800 --> 00:39:51,440 Speaker 2: these lower ranges of the top one hundred and Yeah, 773 00:39:51,520 --> 00:39:54,440 Speaker 2: looking at this list, a couple guys are right outside. 774 00:39:54,960 --> 00:39:57,320 Speaker 2: Alex Bregman I think is kind of in that range. 775 00:39:57,360 --> 00:40:00,360 Speaker 2: I think Alex Bregman is underrated and you're going to 776 00:40:00,400 --> 00:40:02,480 Speaker 2: be able to get him at the tail end of 777 00:40:02,520 --> 00:40:04,759 Speaker 2: the top one hundred and I think he's probably more 778 00:40:04,880 --> 00:40:07,319 Speaker 2: like in the seventies and is going to be able 779 00:40:07,360 --> 00:40:10,520 Speaker 2: to still plug in a solid piece into your lineup 780 00:40:10,560 --> 00:40:14,560 Speaker 2: for a long time. Vinnie Pasquentino so young and productive. 781 00:40:15,080 --> 00:40:18,120 Speaker 2: We forget because we didn't see him as much last year, 782 00:40:18,280 --> 00:40:21,719 Speaker 2: So Vinnie is maybe faded for memory for some of 783 00:40:21,760 --> 00:40:24,640 Speaker 2: the big fantasy players. So those are a couple of 784 00:40:24,640 --> 00:40:27,520 Speaker 2: the guys that I'm thinking about that might sneak up 785 00:40:27,560 --> 00:40:28,799 Speaker 2: on people in that top one hundred. 786 00:40:29,200 --> 00:40:32,239 Speaker 1: Lastly, who just miss that's on your mind? A guy 787 00:40:32,280 --> 00:40:34,600 Speaker 1: that you think could maybe even move into the top 788 00:40:34,640 --> 00:40:37,239 Speaker 1: one hundred. There's a very relative question. By the way, 789 00:40:37,320 --> 00:40:39,960 Speaker 1: It's very subjective because there's different ranks and blah blah blah. 790 00:40:40,000 --> 00:40:42,960 Speaker 1: But someone in that like relative outside the top one 791 00:40:43,000 --> 00:40:45,440 Speaker 1: hundred thing that you think is either a target or 792 00:40:45,440 --> 00:40:46,759 Speaker 1: someone that's going to move up this year. 793 00:40:46,880 --> 00:40:49,279 Speaker 2: Well, there's a couple of guys I can mention. First 794 00:40:49,280 --> 00:40:53,359 Speaker 2: of all, there's the catcher question, and I see like 795 00:40:53,400 --> 00:40:57,200 Speaker 2: a will Smith and a William Contreras hanging out outside 796 00:40:57,239 --> 00:40:59,440 Speaker 2: the top one hundred, and I think that they have 797 00:40:59,520 --> 00:41:02,240 Speaker 2: a case to knock on the door. Even though catchers 798 00:41:02,920 --> 00:41:06,080 Speaker 2: it's a rough life man and the catchers don't always 799 00:41:06,120 --> 00:41:07,839 Speaker 2: last a long time, but I like both of those 800 00:41:07,840 --> 00:41:11,720 Speaker 2: guys quite a lot. And the other piece is the Reds. 801 00:41:12,320 --> 00:41:15,520 Speaker 2: There are so many of these young Reds popping at 802 00:41:15,520 --> 00:41:18,799 Speaker 2: the same time. They're all under twenty five. They all 803 00:41:18,840 --> 00:41:23,080 Speaker 2: have question marks, but they all have upside. Looking at this, 804 00:41:23,239 --> 00:41:28,840 Speaker 2: I have doubts about the Christian and Carnacion strands of 805 00:41:28,920 --> 00:41:31,360 Speaker 2: the world and the neuelvi Martes of the world, but 806 00:41:31,440 --> 00:41:34,680 Speaker 2: I really like Spencer Steer, who is maybe a little 807 00:41:34,680 --> 00:41:38,360 Speaker 2: bit lower. I guess it sort of depends on who's 808 00:41:38,520 --> 00:41:41,200 Speaker 2: looking at it or how they assess it at this point, 809 00:41:41,239 --> 00:41:44,360 Speaker 2: but I think Spencer Steer, with the fact that he 810 00:41:44,400 --> 00:41:47,799 Speaker 2: can play different positions the production, you can't deny at 811 00:41:47,800 --> 00:41:52,600 Speaker 2: that young age. He's going ninety six in NFBC ADP 812 00:41:52,800 --> 00:41:56,120 Speaker 2: right now, and I think he's definitely somebody who ought 813 00:41:56,160 --> 00:41:57,480 Speaker 2: to be in a top one hundred. 814 00:41:57,719 --> 00:42:00,719 Speaker 1: I like that. Jesse Severe Dynasty Sorts Life. You can 815 00:42:00,760 --> 00:42:04,280 Speaker 1: follow him on Twitter at d y N Sports Life. 816 00:42:04,600 --> 00:42:05,320 Speaker 1: What do you want to plug? 817 00:42:05,320 --> 00:42:05,480 Speaker 2: Man? 818 00:42:05,560 --> 00:42:07,600 Speaker 1: You can plug the podcast obviously. What do you got 819 00:42:07,640 --> 00:42:08,640 Speaker 1: going on? Let's hear it? 820 00:42:08,760 --> 00:42:12,320 Speaker 2: I got that going. I wrote an article on Dynasty 821 00:42:12,320 --> 00:42:15,560 Speaker 2: Fantasy Baseball on fantracks HQ this week, and I'll be 822 00:42:15,600 --> 00:42:17,839 Speaker 2: doing a few more of those so you can check 823 00:42:17,880 --> 00:42:20,640 Speaker 2: those out. And I do have a second podcast, Fantasy 824 00:42:20,680 --> 00:42:24,120 Speaker 2: Hockey Light, that's all about Dynasty fantasy hockey if you're 825 00:42:24,239 --> 00:42:26,719 Speaker 2: feeling that sport as well. But I just really appreciate 826 00:42:27,200 --> 00:42:27,960 Speaker 2: coming on Chris. 827 00:42:28,040 --> 00:42:30,520 Speaker 1: We appreciate it, and like I said, this is a 828 00:42:30,600 --> 00:42:33,240 Speaker 1: Dynasty guy that you need to know. Jesse Severe, Dynasty 829 00:42:33,280 --> 00:42:34,239 Speaker 1: Sports Life. Thanks brother. 830 00:42:36,360 --> 00:42:36,799 Speaker 2: There you go. 831 00:42:37,080 --> 00:42:39,879 Speaker 1: That is the podcast. Thank you guys for hanging out, 832 00:42:40,000 --> 00:42:42,440 Speaker 1: and hopefully you've got a pretty good baseline of some 833 00:42:42,520 --> 00:42:44,640 Speaker 1: of these player evaluations that might be a little bit 834 00:42:44,680 --> 00:42:47,719 Speaker 1: tricky for you in Dynasty. As we've now covered the 835 00:42:47,760 --> 00:42:50,040 Speaker 1: top one hundred ranks. If you've missed any of the 836 00:42:50,080 --> 00:42:52,280 Speaker 1: episodes and you're new to it, go back and listen. 837 00:42:52,280 --> 00:42:54,760 Speaker 1: We had Eric Cross in episode one and Chris Clegg 838 00:42:54,800 --> 00:42:58,160 Speaker 1: in episode two, both from the Dynasty tool Shed podcast 839 00:42:58,320 --> 00:43:01,360 Speaker 1: where we were able to cover the top fifty. Now 840 00:43:01,800 --> 00:43:04,400 Speaker 1: we are going to be pushing into deeper Dynasty targets 841 00:43:04,440 --> 00:43:07,799 Speaker 1: outside the top one hundred. Coming up on the next episode, 842 00:43:08,120 --> 00:43:11,759 Speaker 1: we've got James Anderson from Rodo Wire, one of the 843 00:43:11,960 --> 00:43:14,960 Speaker 1: top prospect and Dynasty people out there. James is going 844 00:43:15,000 --> 00:43:17,160 Speaker 1: to be joining me for a great conversation as we're 845 00:43:17,160 --> 00:43:19,400 Speaker 1: going to be talking about the post one hundred players, 846 00:43:19,760 --> 00:43:23,200 Speaker 1: deeper sleepers, prospects and stuff like that. I'm pretty confident 847 00:43:23,239 --> 00:43:25,040 Speaker 1: you guys are going to enjoy that one, so make 848 00:43:25,080 --> 00:43:27,719 Speaker 1: sure you are subscribed so you notified when the new 849 00:43:27,719 --> 00:43:30,200 Speaker 1: episode does drop. Thank you again for hanging out with me. 850 00:43:30,320 --> 00:43:32,520 Speaker 1: Where you can find me on Twitter at is It 851 00:43:32,600 --> 00:43:35,480 Speaker 1: the Welsh for aning of your Dynasty stuff. Until next time, 852 00:43:35,640 --> 00:43:39,080 Speaker 1: we'll go deep into the Dynasty baseball world right here 853 00:43:39,440 --> 00:43:40,400 Speaker 1: on Fantasy Pros. 854 00:43:40,800 --> 00:43:44,000 Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Fantasy Pros Fantasy Baseball podcast. 855 00:43:44,239 --> 00:43:46,640 Speaker 1: If you love the show, the best freeway to support 856 00:43:46,680 --> 00:43:49,560 Speaker 1: us is by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts 857 00:43:49,680 --> 00:43:53,359 Speaker 1: or Spotify, follow us on x, Instagram, and TikTok at 858 00:43:53,400 --> 00:43:56,320 Speaker 1: Fantasy Pros, and subscribe to our YouTube channel at YouTube 859 00:43:56,360 --> 00:43:58,560 Speaker 1: dot com slash Fantasy Pros MLB