WEBVTT - Did Democrats Learn Their Lesson Or Will They Keep Losing? + The Electoral Landscape After Six Months Of Trump 0:00:03.960 --> 0:00:06.880 Hello there, Welcome to another episode of the Chuck Podcast. 0:00:07.040 --> 0:00:10.280 We are coming up on the end of July, and 0:00:10.320 --> 0:00:14.640 there's another aspect that I want to get into today. 0:00:14.680 --> 0:00:15.840 My guest is Dave Wygel. 0:00:15.880 --> 0:00:21.080 He's sort of the chief political correspondent, certainly the campaign 0:00:21.239 --> 0:00:24.560 guru these days over at Semaphore. I first got to 0:00:24.600 --> 0:00:27.720 note Dave Weigel at a few of the other stops, 0:00:28.200 --> 0:00:31.040 if you will, most recently before that, the Washington Post. 0:00:31.640 --> 0:00:35.040 He is sort of my type of campaign reporter. He 0:00:35.159 --> 0:00:39.519 likes to get out of Washington. He goes to these events. 0:00:39.560 --> 0:00:42.120 He spends a lot of time. He goes to these. 0:00:42.640 --> 0:00:46.279 You know, if there's an event where candidates are showing up. 0:00:46.320 --> 0:00:49.800 There's a state picnic of some sort in Kentucky, they'll 0:00:49.840 --> 0:00:52.760 call it Fancy Farm, and you know it's the Iowa 0:00:52.840 --> 0:00:56.720 State Fair in Iowa where political candidates get together. There's 0:00:56.760 --> 0:00:58.960 all these different things. Someday I'll give you a whole tour. 0:00:59.280 --> 0:01:02.360 I actually would love to sell a podcast series where 0:01:02.400 --> 0:01:06.600 I just go from a political event to political event 0:01:06.680 --> 0:01:08.920 where they you know, sometimes you've got to go eat 0:01:09.000 --> 0:01:13.479 bad fried fish with the local political leaders to showcase 0:01:13.520 --> 0:01:14.560 your wares and this or that. 0:01:14.640 --> 0:01:15.160 But anyway. 0:01:15.280 --> 0:01:17.520 But Dave Weigel's that kind of guy, and he was 0:01:17.520 --> 0:01:19.240 a perfect guy to do. 0:01:19.360 --> 0:01:20.479 What I think is, you know. 0:01:20.440 --> 0:01:25.000 If you look at the midterm calendar and you divide 0:01:25.040 --> 0:01:27.960 it up into four quarters, there's basically, you know, we 0:01:28.000 --> 0:01:30.200 are at the end of the first quarter of this 0:01:30.360 --> 0:01:34.080 midterm cycle with November of twenty twenty six. Basically we're 0:01:34.120 --> 0:01:37.120 at with the first quarter poll if you want to 0:01:37.160 --> 0:01:40.000 talk about it as you're a racing fan, either cars 0:01:40.080 --> 0:01:43.200 or horses, end of the first. 0:01:43.040 --> 0:01:44.360 Quarter, if you want to talk about it. 0:01:44.360 --> 0:01:47.840 As far as splitting things up that way. And there's 0:01:47.840 --> 0:01:52.560 a few things that I get into deep with Dave about, 0:01:52.680 --> 0:01:56.560 you know, what are the similarities between the political environment 0:01:56.600 --> 0:01:58.920 of twenty twenty five and the political environment in the 0:01:58.920 --> 0:02:02.760 first year of one point zero and twenty seventeen. We 0:02:02.880 --> 0:02:07.160 get into all of that and sort of the different 0:02:07.240 --> 0:02:10.800 sort of historical factor, sort of near term history that 0:02:11.240 --> 0:02:14.480 favors one party versus the near term history that may 0:02:14.520 --> 0:02:15.960 favor another. 0:02:16.120 --> 0:02:17.880 So it is this is. 0:02:17.880 --> 0:02:20.200 A political junkie day, and as you know, most Wednesdays 0:02:20.240 --> 0:02:22.560 I do try to reserve sort of for my my 0:02:22.680 --> 0:02:26.240 campaign midterm updates, and so that's what my substack focus 0:02:26.360 --> 0:02:29.359 is this week. It is on sort of where are 0:02:29.400 --> 0:02:33.320 we in the midterms after the first quarter, And the 0:02:33.320 --> 0:02:37.360 way I put it is, we're in a coin flip situation. 0:02:37.560 --> 0:02:40.280 What you know, if you'd asked me six months ago 0:02:41.880 --> 0:02:43.919 what is the most likely result for the midterm elections, 0:02:43.960 --> 0:02:45.720 I'd have said, well, Democrats are going to win the House. 0:02:46.440 --> 0:02:48.840 The question is can they put the Senate in play? 0:02:48.919 --> 0:02:52.160 Here we are six months in. I still think the 0:02:52.240 --> 0:02:54.640 Democrats are favored to win the House, but I don't 0:02:54.680 --> 0:02:57.840 have the same kind of certainty about it as I 0:02:57.840 --> 0:03:00.320 felt six months ago. Part of that is to do 0:03:00.360 --> 0:03:03.360 with redistricting and what may happen, the fact that we 0:03:03.400 --> 0:03:06.079 are going to redo all these maps, and I think 0:03:06.120 --> 0:03:09.160 it does sort of put a bit of paralysis over 0:03:09.200 --> 0:03:12.520 the House map, especially when you look at four states 0:03:12.520 --> 0:03:16.840 that may all try to remap their congressional districts before 0:03:16.880 --> 0:03:22.120 the November elections. Texas, Ohio, California, New York. All of 0:03:22.280 --> 0:03:24.560 four of those states have talked about a Missouri might, 0:03:24.680 --> 0:03:29.079 Florida might as well. So the fact that you may 0:03:29.720 --> 0:03:32.920 just take those first four states I mentioned, Texas, California, 0:03:32.919 --> 0:03:37.800 New York, Ohio. Boy, there's approximately over a dozen swing 0:03:37.840 --> 0:03:43.120 districts just there. So those four states alone could decide 0:03:44.000 --> 0:03:46.640 this majority. Because you know, one of the ironies about 0:03:46.640 --> 0:03:50.560 this reapportionment map, the one that we did right after 0:03:50.600 --> 0:03:53.600 the census in twenty twenty, the map that was put 0:03:53.600 --> 0:03:56.200 into place in twenty twenty two, is I would argue 0:03:56.240 --> 0:04:01.480 it's the most competitive map, ie map that we've had. 0:04:01.880 --> 0:04:03.880 I can go in individual states and say this is 0:04:03.920 --> 0:04:06.840 an unfair map in favor of the Republicans, this is 0:04:06.840 --> 0:04:08.840 an unfair map in favor of the Democrats. But when 0:04:08.880 --> 0:04:12.000 you actually look at it from a wider lens through 0:04:12.080 --> 0:04:17.880 all fifty states, you're like, oh, it's basically two and ten. 0:04:18.560 --> 0:04:21.080 You know, two hundred and five sure bets for the Republicans, 0:04:21.120 --> 0:04:23.520 two hundred and five sure bets for the Democrats, and 0:04:24.720 --> 0:04:27.839 oh another twenty eight that are going to be the 0:04:28.000 --> 0:04:31.720 actual battleground, right we what both parties have successfully done 0:04:31.760 --> 0:04:35.280 is shrunk the battleground. Now, what could happen with all 0:04:35.320 --> 0:04:39.960 of this attempt at redistricting in this mid decade attempt here, 0:04:40.480 --> 0:04:44.440 as particularly as Republicans try to try to safeguard their 0:04:44.640 --> 0:04:47.480 very narrow house majority, is it might actually expand the 0:04:47.560 --> 0:04:50.440 number of swing districts they could actually open up. And 0:04:50.440 --> 0:04:52.680 this is what I think could be the unintended consequence 0:04:52.960 --> 0:04:55.760 of all this. If California Democrats are looking to find 0:04:55.760 --> 0:04:59.640 more create more opportunities for Democratic seats, what it's going 0:04:59.720 --> 0:05:01.359 to take for them to do it might weaken some 0:05:01.440 --> 0:05:04.400 Democratic seats and put them more in play. Ditto for 0:05:04.440 --> 0:05:07.440 what could happen in Texas as they try to strengthen 0:05:07.520 --> 0:05:11.120 some Democratic seats to make them more Republican leaning. The 0:05:11.200 --> 0:05:13.520 Republicans they put in those districts are going to come 0:05:13.560 --> 0:05:17.719 from say, solid red districts that suddenly become lean Republican 0:05:17.760 --> 0:05:21.839 and potentially competitive if Democrats find a compelling candidate. So 0:05:23.520 --> 0:05:25.479 but at this you know, this is why you know 0:05:25.800 --> 0:05:27.719 the fact that they're going through this process. You know, 0:05:28.279 --> 0:05:30.920 someone like me looks like it's like, well, you know, 0:05:31.040 --> 0:05:33.600 I hate jerrymandering. I hate how each state does it, 0:05:33.839 --> 0:05:39.680 you know, but the results seem to be uneasy equilibrium, 0:05:39.720 --> 0:05:43.200 which is probably better long term for the country. 0:05:43.240 --> 0:05:43.880 So here we are. 0:05:44.279 --> 0:05:46.320 So look, the House map I think is a bit uncertain, 0:05:46.839 --> 0:05:49.120 but there are certain things that still favor the Democrats 0:05:49.160 --> 0:05:52.440 in the mid terms. One is their their voting coalition. 0:05:53.880 --> 0:05:58.080 They've become the coalition. They've they've acquired suburban voters as 0:05:58.120 --> 0:06:00.560 part of their coalition, and suburban voters of the reliable 0:06:00.640 --> 0:06:04.000 voters they vote in every election. Twenty and thirty years ago, 0:06:04.279 --> 0:06:07.200 suburban voters leaned Republican, which is why Republicans used to 0:06:07.200 --> 0:06:11.200 overperform in special elections. Republicans used to overperform in the midterms. 0:06:11.360 --> 0:06:14.440 It was Democrats that needed the presidential turnout years to 0:06:14.520 --> 0:06:17.640 improve their standing, you know, as recently as two thousand. 0:06:18.680 --> 0:06:21.600 You know, Republicans over indexed in the midterms in ninety eight, 0:06:21.640 --> 0:06:25.960 and Democrats over index in the presidential vote, which allowed 0:06:25.960 --> 0:06:29.080 them to pick up four Senate seats in a presidential year. 0:06:29.920 --> 0:06:32.560 It really wasn't until the advent of Trump when he 0:06:32.680 --> 0:06:35.120 sort of shifted the party away from its Chamber of 0:06:35.160 --> 0:06:40.120 Commerce routes to these more populous routes. They basically traded 0:06:41.440 --> 0:06:44.560 a bigger pool of potential voters in presidential years, which 0:06:44.560 --> 0:06:47.880 has helped Trump, but they've traded it for less reliable 0:06:47.960 --> 0:06:50.680 voters in midterm years, where the Democrats have the more 0:06:50.680 --> 0:06:53.360 reliable voters. Now that's why you see them over performing 0:06:53.360 --> 0:06:57.600 in in special elections and why so many Why for instance, 0:06:57.839 --> 0:06:59.760 I believe, and you'll learn this in the day, Wigle, 0:07:00.080 --> 0:07:02.359 that there's probably going to be a special election in 0:07:02.400 --> 0:07:07.080 December and Tennessee. That is close enough that I'll start 0:07:07.120 --> 0:07:10.040 talking about it on this podcast. You can hold me 0:07:10.080 --> 0:07:12.040 to it if it happened. If it doesn't happen, I 0:07:13.000 --> 0:07:15.720 will happily admit I'm wrong on that one. But this 0:07:15.880 --> 0:07:19.720 is that special election Mark Green who just resigned his 0:07:19.760 --> 0:07:23.120 seat in Congress, and it's got a bit of the 0:07:23.160 --> 0:07:29.000 suburbs of Nashville. It's got the makings of a potential, 0:07:29.520 --> 0:07:34.480 you know, low turnout election. The people paying attention lean left, 0:07:34.520 --> 0:07:37.960 the people paying less attention. There may and then that's 0:07:38.000 --> 0:07:40.600 another aspect of the midterms of why the Democrats might 0:07:40.600 --> 0:07:44.840 be favored is that the out party is already showing 0:07:44.920 --> 0:07:47.640 signs of being more motivated to vote in the mid 0:07:47.760 --> 0:07:52.000 terms than the end party. You know, it could very 0:07:52.000 --> 0:07:54.960 well be that MAGA is tired of winning and doesn't 0:07:54.960 --> 0:07:56.720 see a need to get out there and vote. This 0:07:56.800 --> 0:07:59.520 is obviously a mindset that's Trump. White House is trying 0:07:59.560 --> 0:08:03.120 to figure out how to change because it has been 0:08:03.160 --> 0:08:06.040 a hallmark of the Trump era that in the midterms, 0:08:06.120 --> 0:08:07.400 Republicans underperform. 0:08:08.080 --> 0:08:10.840 Specifically, Trump voters don't show up. 0:08:12.640 --> 0:08:17.840 However, as the atmospherics favor the Democrats, you do see 0:08:17.880 --> 0:08:19.880 problems for the Democrats, right, you have a brand that 0:08:19.960 --> 0:08:24.040 is unpopular. I rattled through that Wall Street Journal poll 0:08:24.040 --> 0:08:25.840 a couple of days ago that told you that showed 0:08:25.840 --> 0:08:30.640 you that Congressional Republicans are favored on a lion's share 0:08:30.640 --> 0:08:32.599 of the major issues that can turn Americans about. The 0:08:32.600 --> 0:08:34.680 only ones that they're not favored on are healthcare, which 0:08:34.679 --> 0:08:36.000 is not an insignificant one. 0:08:37.080 --> 0:08:38.120 And they were even with. 0:08:39.840 --> 0:08:43.600 Looking out for the middle class, which is normally something 0:08:43.640 --> 0:08:45.720 that the Democrats had a much bigger advantage on and 0:08:45.720 --> 0:08:49.640 they don't at the moment. And there's one other thing 0:08:49.679 --> 0:08:52.000 that's going in favor of the Republicans, which is why 0:08:52.760 --> 0:08:55.080 in my sub stack I said, hey, this is a 0:08:55.080 --> 0:08:57.800 midterm cycle where there's you can't say either party is 0:08:57.840 --> 0:09:00.640 favored yet, and that is the republic Party is more 0:09:00.720 --> 0:09:03.080 unified than it's been in any midterm yet in the 0:09:03.080 --> 0:09:05.560 Trump era. You know, in both twenty eighteen and twenty 0:09:05.600 --> 0:09:08.880 twenty two, the two midterms were Republicans lost the eighteen 0:09:08.880 --> 0:09:12.280 midterms and essentially underperformed in their narrow House victory in 0:09:12.280 --> 0:09:17.640 twenty two, Mitch McConnell run in the Senate campaign army, 0:09:17.679 --> 0:09:21.079 and even on the House Republican side, they were constantly 0:09:21.120 --> 0:09:24.320 looking for candidates in these swind districts that had some 0:09:24.480 --> 0:09:25.480 distance from Trump. 0:09:25.880 --> 0:09:28.920 They didn't want. They wanted candidates. 0:09:28.520 --> 0:09:32.199 That Trump wasn't going to destroy and hate, but they 0:09:32.240 --> 0:09:35.200 didn't weren't necessarily looking for MAGA. They were looking for 0:09:35.320 --> 0:09:40.920 MAGA acceptable, not necessarily MAGA excited, and that would create 0:09:41.040 --> 0:09:43.119 some problems. 0:09:43.400 --> 0:09:43.600 Right. 0:09:43.679 --> 0:09:47.000 We saw multiple primaries in both twenty eighteen and twenty 0:09:47.080 --> 0:09:50.000 twenty two in the Republican Party where essentially it was 0:09:50.080 --> 0:09:55.280 McConnell versus MAGA or the establishment versus Trump, and it didn't. 0:09:55.040 --> 0:09:57.720 Matter who won or lost. It it hurt, it harmed 0:09:57.720 --> 0:09:58.760 the party in the general. 0:09:59.040 --> 0:10:02.280 It created an op for the Democrats this cycle, it 0:10:02.320 --> 0:10:07.920 appears really only the Texas mess is a Republican primary 0:10:08.000 --> 0:10:12.000 that could actually create an opportunity for Democrats if things 0:10:12.040 --> 0:10:16.719 go the wrong way. But look at out quickly Republicans 0:10:16.720 --> 0:10:18.480 have cleared the field and rallied around a canadate in 0:10:18.520 --> 0:10:20.839 North Carolina. Cleared the field and rallied around a canadate 0:10:20.880 --> 0:10:23.600 in Michigan. These are things that they have not been 0:10:23.600 --> 0:10:25.480 able to do in previous midterms. So you have a 0:10:25.520 --> 0:10:28.560 Republican party more unified, you could say more. You know, 0:10:28.640 --> 0:10:32.079 it's Trump's party now, right. McConnell was still fighting, was 0:10:32.120 --> 0:10:34.720 still swimming against that current. And even at times Kevin 0:10:34.800 --> 0:10:38.079 McCarthy went hot and cold at swimming against that current. 0:10:38.160 --> 0:10:39.960 You know, he kind of would be with Trump, then 0:10:40.000 --> 0:10:42.200 he'd be against him and on camp you know, so, 0:10:42.360 --> 0:10:44.319 but either way, there's none of that now, right, Mike 0:10:44.400 --> 0:10:47.679 Johnson always swims with Trump, and John Thune has made 0:10:47.720 --> 0:10:50.720 the decision, even though he's not always seeing eye to 0:10:50.720 --> 0:10:53.840 eye with him, he is not he is not going 0:10:53.880 --> 0:10:57.280 to operate that way as far as running the Senate 0:10:57.320 --> 0:11:00.600 Republican campaign arms. So this is a more are in 0:11:00.720 --> 0:11:04.520 sync Republican party and that should in theory put them 0:11:04.520 --> 0:11:06.679 in better positions in some of these primaries. And then 0:11:06.720 --> 0:11:10.200 there's one other aspect that unity on the Republican side 0:11:10.200 --> 0:11:14.559 has also improved their financial aspect. For the first time, frankly, 0:11:14.640 --> 0:11:18.720 in about a decade, the House Republicans collectively in the 0:11:18.760 --> 0:11:21.280 swing in the in the in the most vulnerable districts, 0:11:21.600 --> 0:11:24.600 seem to outraise the House Democratic incumbents in their most 0:11:24.640 --> 0:11:27.800 vulnerable districts. This had not been the case for multiple cycles. 0:11:29.000 --> 0:11:32.319 Democrats had been really good about raising early money fortifying 0:11:32.360 --> 0:11:36.760 their more vulnerable members. It seemed as if this time 0:11:36.800 --> 0:11:39.120 the Republicans finally got their act together. 0:11:40.480 --> 0:11:42.600 Now there's a few reasons potentially for this one. 0:11:43.480 --> 0:11:46.280 As I said, I think it's the unity inside where 0:11:46.520 --> 0:11:48.920 this is Trump's party now and everybody's operating in the 0:11:48.960 --> 0:11:53.120 same way, so there's no competing finance, financial factions, things 0:11:53.160 --> 0:11:55.720 like that. The second is, I do think some Democratic 0:11:55.800 --> 0:11:58.200 downers are sitting on their hands, So I do think 0:11:58.240 --> 0:12:00.920 that there was some There was some money that Democrats 0:12:00.960 --> 0:12:04.760 successfully raised before in twenty seventeen and twenty eighteen and 0:12:04.800 --> 0:12:07.400 in twenty twenty one and twenty twenty two that is 0:12:07.440 --> 0:12:09.560 not there right now in this cycle. 0:12:09.640 --> 0:12:10.480 It may come back. 0:12:11.080 --> 0:12:13.959 You know, these donors are just disappointed. Maybe they're angry 0:12:14.040 --> 0:12:17.040 at Biden, maybe they're angry at the Democratic leadership, maybe 0:12:17.080 --> 0:12:18.040 they just lost faith. 0:12:18.240 --> 0:12:19.000 Whatever it is. 0:12:19.320 --> 0:12:21.400 Now they may come back and that money will show 0:12:21.480 --> 0:12:23.720 up in the spring of twenty six and suddenly the 0:12:23.760 --> 0:12:27.200 financial advantage that many House Democrats had been enjoying Overhouse 0:12:27.280 --> 0:12:30.480 Republicans comes back. But that is yet another reason, right 0:12:30.520 --> 0:12:33.439 you have you know, the Republican Party of twenty seventeen 0:12:35.160 --> 0:12:38.600 that was in such you know, that was basically fighting 0:12:38.640 --> 0:12:42.080 with itself, helped give And it was the Democrats that 0:12:42.080 --> 0:12:45.080 were in the United Party after the twenty sixteen election, 0:12:45.200 --> 0:12:49.320 not the Republicans, right, and that unity gave them the 0:12:49.360 --> 0:12:51.480 opportunity to win forty seats in twenty eighteen. 0:12:53.520 --> 0:12:55.600 There's just obviously a lot less. 0:12:55.440 --> 0:12:57.840 Unity in the Democratic side at this point in time. 0:12:58.240 --> 0:13:01.920 The atmospheric still favor the Democrats. That's the who you know. 0:13:02.080 --> 0:13:04.760 Usually people that are unhappy are more likely to vote 0:13:04.760 --> 0:13:08.559 than people that are satisfied. The magabase may feel satisfied, 0:13:08.640 --> 0:13:11.880 and that's why I think Republicans are fearing if they 0:13:11.880 --> 0:13:14.840 don't have a negative message to use to motivate their voters. 0:13:15.400 --> 0:13:18.559 I think they fear they won't have a motivating message. 0:13:19.480 --> 0:13:21.439 It is hard to get a voter to say, aren't 0:13:21.440 --> 0:13:24.000 you happy about this tax cut? Come out and vote, 0:13:24.000 --> 0:13:27.600 aren't you happy about these deportations? Come out and vote 0:13:28.080 --> 0:13:31.440 versus So they got to create fear. I know that 0:13:31.760 --> 0:13:35.080 they're talking about trying to use the threat of impeachment 0:13:35.120 --> 0:13:38.360 if Democrats win the House, they'll impeach. I would be 0:13:38.480 --> 0:13:41.840 surprised if voters buy into that. You know, maybe someone 0:13:41.880 --> 0:13:44.160 there in the base will, but you know, you know, 0:13:44.600 --> 0:13:46.080 outside of al Green, you don't hear a lot of 0:13:46.080 --> 0:13:47.880 Democrats talking impeachment right now in the. 0:13:47.800 --> 0:13:49.840 Real world because they're just not having the votes. 0:13:50.280 --> 0:13:52.840 I don't think there's credibility there, and I think that 0:13:52.960 --> 0:13:55.160 there's an exhaustion, right I think it would be you know, 0:13:55.200 --> 0:13:58.600 if anybody campaigned on there's one thing about being a 0:13:58.679 --> 0:14:01.400 check on Donald Trump and and working within the system 0:14:01.480 --> 0:14:03.400 that I think is going to be quite appealing to voters. 0:14:03.640 --> 0:14:06.880 And that's another thing that could be advantaged to the Democrats. 0:14:07.040 --> 0:14:09.400 Here's one other trend line that I picked up on 0:14:09.480 --> 0:14:11.920 as I was doing my dive into the first quarter 0:14:11.960 --> 0:14:16.600 of the midterms. It's interesting, since nineteen ninety, every time 0:14:16.720 --> 0:14:19.800 the Democrats have won the midterms, so that would be 0:14:19.880 --> 0:14:23.440 nineteen ninety, that would be arguably two thousand and six, 0:14:24.640 --> 0:14:30.239 twenty eighteen. Those three times the win in the midterms 0:14:30.720 --> 0:14:35.280 led to winning the presidential Two years later nineteen ninety, 0:14:35.320 --> 0:14:36.800 they gained seats in both the House and the Senate. 0:14:36.800 --> 0:14:38.480 They already have the majorities, but the gain seats in 0:14:38.480 --> 0:14:40.840 both the House and the Senate. They won the presidency 0:14:40.840 --> 0:14:43.640 in ninety two. In two thousand and six, they won 0:14:43.720 --> 0:14:45.600 both the House and the Senate, and at the time 0:14:45.640 --> 0:14:47.040 the Senate was a bit of an upset. In what 0:14:47.080 --> 0:14:49.160 happened in eight they win the presidency and won even 0:14:49.240 --> 0:14:52.320 more House and Senate s. It's added to both majorities 0:14:52.720 --> 0:14:56.000 on that front. Eighteen they win the House. While they 0:14:56.000 --> 0:15:01.040 didn't get weren't able to pick up the Senate, it 0:15:01.160 --> 0:15:06.000 did foreshadow the ability to win the presidency. The last 0:15:06.000 --> 0:15:09.960 time Democrats won the midterms but lost the presidency the 0:15:10.000 --> 0:15:11.720 following two years was actually eighty six. 0:15:12.360 --> 0:15:13.720 That was a year they win the Senate. 0:15:15.040 --> 0:15:17.280 Back in eighty six, they already had the House majority, 0:15:18.080 --> 0:15:20.040 and then they go on to lose the presidential in 0:15:20.080 --> 0:15:26.160 a landslide in eighty eight. And I bring up the 0:15:26.200 --> 0:15:29.120 eighty six midterms because I think if I were looking 0:15:29.160 --> 0:15:33.760 for a model that I think the current landscape supports 0:15:33.800 --> 0:15:36.640 the best, it's potentially that where I can see the 0:15:36.680 --> 0:15:42.560 Democrats doing well more as a reactionary response to Trump. 0:15:42.960 --> 0:15:45.800 But come twenty twenty eight, all that baggage that the 0:15:45.800 --> 0:15:48.480 Democrats are carrying right now about their brand, about their 0:15:49.400 --> 0:15:52.560 what are they as a party. They're having a generational fight, 0:15:52.600 --> 0:15:55.840 they're having an ideological fights. Sometimes those two things aligned, 0:15:56.000 --> 0:16:00.680 sometimes they don't. You know, has the part already lost 0:16:00.840 --> 0:16:03.520 enough in order to do the soul searching that needs 0:16:03.520 --> 0:16:05.240 to be done? You know? How much should the party 0:16:05.280 --> 0:16:08.400 be focused on policy and democracy versus culture? 0:16:08.800 --> 0:16:08.960 Right? 0:16:09.000 --> 0:16:11.280 I think that's the if I had somebody asked me 0:16:11.280 --> 0:16:13.200 this question on my sub stack, what's the soul searching 0:16:13.240 --> 0:16:15.240 that needs to be done? It's sort of like, you know, 0:16:15.440 --> 0:16:19.240 what is how do they denote that they will fight 0:16:19.320 --> 0:16:21.960 for the underdog without taking up every fight for every 0:16:22.040 --> 0:16:24.360 underdog identity group? 0:16:24.440 --> 0:16:24.600 You know? 0:16:24.640 --> 0:16:28.840 How do you shift away from identity politics without abandoning 0:16:28.880 --> 0:16:30.400 those very voters. 0:16:30.360 --> 0:16:32.120 That were with you because they felt like you were 0:16:32.120 --> 0:16:32.800 looking out for them. 0:16:32.800 --> 0:16:36.440 I think these I think these challenges inside the party 0:16:36.840 --> 0:16:41.040 they haven't fully figured out. Look that stuff usually doesn't 0:16:41.040 --> 0:16:43.000 get sorted out until you have a north star of 0:16:43.040 --> 0:16:48.240 a presidential nominee. And that is why I think both 0:16:48.280 --> 0:16:50.960 things could be true here. This is a party that well, 0:16:51.000 --> 0:16:53.880 there will be some ideological fights and maybe some primaries 0:16:54.360 --> 0:16:57.080 produce some nominees that can't win generals for the Democrats. 0:16:57.080 --> 0:17:01.800 But in essence, the larger momentum of the atmospherics may 0:17:01.840 --> 0:17:03.800 favor them, and they may do well in the midterms, 0:17:04.440 --> 0:17:07.320 but it may be meaning, you know, it may it 0:17:07.359 --> 0:17:10.960 may not foreshadow success in twenty eight, because twenty eight 0:17:11.000 --> 0:17:13.960 may truly be the actual fight for the soul of 0:17:14.000 --> 0:17:17.800 the party. Which direction should it go? Right, That's what happened. 0:17:18.920 --> 0:17:20.720 That's what happened after ninety. 0:17:20.840 --> 0:17:23.080 You know, ninety took place, and then there was. 0:17:23.040 --> 0:17:25.879 This a bit of a back and forth which direction 0:17:25.960 --> 0:17:29.240 should the party go? And Bill Clinton ended up winning 0:17:29.280 --> 0:17:36.600 that argument, and the center left coalition became became the 0:17:36.600 --> 0:17:42.120 majority coalition on the Democratic side. So this is why 0:17:42.160 --> 0:17:46.159 I think it's fascinating in this respect, Republicans in the 0:17:46.160 --> 0:17:49.199 Trump era have never been in as good of a 0:17:49.240 --> 0:17:55.159 position before midterm. Yet doesn't mean they'll have success. It 0:17:55.280 --> 0:17:59.600 just simply means Democrats aren't going to get handed easy 0:17:59.600 --> 0:18:04.400 opportun tunities thanks to own goals by the Republicans right 0:18:04.720 --> 0:18:07.600 that benefited them quite a bit in eighteen, twenty and 0:18:07.600 --> 0:18:10.240 twenty two. In these down ballot races, I do think 0:18:10.280 --> 0:18:12.480 you will see fewer own goals on the R side 0:18:12.520 --> 0:18:15.840 than we've seen, and the question is are there going 0:18:15.880 --> 0:18:16.480 to be own goals? 0:18:16.520 --> 0:18:17.639 On the Democratic side? 0:18:18.240 --> 0:18:24.879 Is the is the the concern about the direction of 0:18:24.920 --> 0:18:28.959 the party. Does that how much does that hurt Democrats 0:18:28.960 --> 0:18:32.320 in the midterms. History says it may not hurt them 0:18:32.359 --> 0:18:35.040 that much. What will really hurt them, I mean is 0:18:35.960 --> 0:18:40.159 is the debate that may take place after the midterms. 0:18:40.320 --> 0:18:42.879 But like I said, this is a check in in 0:18:42.960 --> 0:18:46.600 the first quarter. There's plenty of examples where one thing 0:18:46.680 --> 0:18:49.760 looks like it's going one way after one quarter and 0:18:49.800 --> 0:18:54.280 then literally, you know, you know the expression a week 0:18:54.359 --> 0:18:58.520 is a lifetime in politics, Well, imagine what three more six. 0:18:58.359 --> 0:19:02.359 Month periods are in a midterm cycle. And we still 0:19:02.400 --> 0:19:03.640 have that to go. 0:19:03.760 --> 0:19:09.280 So with that, enjoy my conversation and you're sort of 0:19:09.800 --> 0:19:13.639 deep dive into the where the two parties stand at 0:19:13.640 --> 0:19:17.320 the moment and where directionally they may be headed in 0:19:17.400 --> 0:19:18.800 the next eighteen months. 0:19:30.119 --> 0:19:34.080 All right, Joining me now is well, I will I 0:19:34.080 --> 0:19:34.560 will let. 0:19:34.520 --> 0:19:37.840 Him tell what his official title is with Semaphore, But 0:19:37.920 --> 0:19:40.800 he's basically the political guy, is the way I look 0:19:40.840 --> 0:19:43.840 at it. He's the campaign guy. And Dave Weigel is 0:19:43.880 --> 0:19:47.000 somebody that I've never worked with. And if I were 0:19:47.000 --> 0:19:49.160 in Hotline today, I'd like to think Dave Wygel would 0:19:49.200 --> 0:19:52.840 have been somebody we'd have got out, have coerced into 0:19:52.840 --> 0:19:57.200 coming to the hotline. He's wired like a cook Report guy, 0:19:57.640 --> 0:19:59.400 hotline guy Chris Sliza. 0:19:59.520 --> 0:20:02.280 So, mister Wigle, it's good to see you, good to 0:20:02.320 --> 0:20:04.880 talk with you. No, it's great to be here. Thank 0:20:04.920 --> 0:20:09.400 you for saying that I am such an original hotline 0:20:09.800 --> 0:20:12.359 follower that I used to. I think I had to 0:20:12.400 --> 0:20:14.960 download the old hotline videos you did in the you. 0:20:14.920 --> 0:20:18.000 Say download first of all the videos that was such 0:20:18.040 --> 0:20:20.560 a that was a separate that was like John mccuriy 0:20:20.600 --> 0:20:23.840 and I, you know, totally going, you know, doing a 0:20:23.880 --> 0:20:28.920 total ripoff of PTI, and we were doing YouTube throwing 0:20:28.920 --> 0:20:32.040 them up there. My old friend of mine, Dan Manette, 0:20:32.280 --> 0:20:34.399 his dad is Chuck Manette, the late Chuck Manatte In 0:20:34.400 --> 0:20:37.840 case wondering, Dan Manatt's a documentarian. It was his idea 0:20:38.080 --> 0:20:41.680 and they still live on YouTube. Nothing goes away on YouTube. 0:20:41.800 --> 0:20:43.000 It sits there forever. 0:20:44.560 --> 0:20:47.080 Oh. I remember there was a nine to eleven tribute 0:20:47.160 --> 0:20:50.360 video episode that you released with that I had YouTube's 0:20:50.400 --> 0:20:53.159 Peace on Earth was the soundtrack. I have the memory 0:20:53.160 --> 0:20:56.680 that that my memory that recalls congressional district names and 0:20:56.680 --> 0:20:59.760 stuff is very spotty. I can't remember what time meetings start, 0:20:59.760 --> 0:21:02.600 but I can't remember that, right, So big fan. Good 0:21:02.600 --> 0:21:04.840 to be here. So it's good to talk with you. 0:21:05.000 --> 0:21:05.960 And it's sort of where. 0:21:06.200 --> 0:21:09.280 Look, we're talking on a Monday, July twenty eighth, a 0:21:09.320 --> 0:21:12.280 big sort of midterm news of the day as the 0:21:12.359 --> 0:21:14.840 Roy Cooper announcement in there, But I kind of want 0:21:14.880 --> 0:21:17.440 to tackle things. We're going to start sixty thousand feet 0:21:17.480 --> 0:21:20.680 and then we're going to travel the country a little bit. 0:21:22.280 --> 0:21:25.960 Twenty seventeen versus twenty twenty five at this moment in time. 0:21:26.000 --> 0:21:29.520 In twenty seventeen, we had the beginning of some well 0:21:29.520 --> 0:21:32.479 there's some special election over performances. Democrats hadn't really won 0:21:32.560 --> 0:21:35.160 anything yet, but it was starting to look I don't 0:21:35.160 --> 0:21:37.399 think we had had the Connor Lamb special just yet, 0:21:37.680 --> 0:21:40.359 but it was the Mike Pompeo Special. There was a 0:21:40.359 --> 0:21:43.240 couple of others, and hey, is there something happening out here. 0:21:44.000 --> 0:21:47.440 You also had a divided Republican Party and a unified 0:21:47.480 --> 0:21:52.840 Democratic Party. Eight years later, some of this looks similar. 0:21:52.960 --> 0:21:56.480 We've had some special elections, there's been some over performance 0:21:56.520 --> 0:22:01.080 by Democrats. But you have a unified Republican party for 0:22:01.119 --> 0:22:07.760 the most part, arguably, and it's a divided Democratic party. 0:22:07.920 --> 0:22:10.800 What are you taking away so far in twenty twenty 0:22:10.840 --> 0:22:13.040 five and how would you compare it to twenty seventeen. 0:22:14.320 --> 0:22:15.840 I like that setup, and that was one of my 0:22:15.960 --> 0:22:18.480 jobs at the Post in twenty seventeen was going to 0:22:18.520 --> 0:22:21.359 all these these districts for the election being held and 0:22:21.400 --> 0:22:26.240 Democrats kept coming right up to the end of the race, 0:22:26.280 --> 0:22:29.199 getting a couple points short of winning. This took me 0:22:29.280 --> 0:22:32.640 to Montana and to rock Hill, South Carolina, and yeah, 0:22:32.640 --> 0:22:35.199 there are a bunch of single digit races and Safety's Republicans. 0:22:35.960 --> 0:22:38.800 The only repetition of history sort of with these Lara 0:22:38.920 --> 0:22:41.399 races that got out of hand were Democrats raised a 0:22:41.400 --> 0:22:45.040 ton of money that really not performed by much. The 0:22:45.119 --> 0:22:48.040 parties are very different than they were eight years ago. 0:22:48.640 --> 0:22:51.320 I was just talking to colleagues about Eric Schmidt, and 0:22:51.320 --> 0:22:53.640 I was saying, well, he's won. In the many lists 0:22:53.640 --> 0:22:57.520 at Missouri Center of Republicans who hold seats that sometimes 0:22:57.520 --> 0:22:59.920 Trump critics used to hold, there are very few left. 0:23:00.000 --> 0:23:03.000 We were down to the point where Tom Massey is 0:23:03.040 --> 0:23:06.240 the most visible Trump critic and that is a huge 0:23:06.240 --> 0:23:09.399 shift of the window of what's acceptable in the Republican Party. 0:23:09.960 --> 0:23:12.960 We all in the media the universe changes, but we 0:23:13.119 --> 0:23:17.080 use the same terms like centrist and moderate and pragmat 0:23:17.080 --> 0:23:19.800 et cetera to define the party. And a modern rep 0:23:19.800 --> 0:23:22.320 look in at this point is somebody who doesn't really 0:23:22.320 --> 0:23:25.600 criticize Trump, but maybia votes against some of his nominees sometimes, 0:23:26.040 --> 0:23:28.520 and eight years ago it was somebody like Bob Corker 0:23:28.520 --> 0:23:30.120 who is trying to slow the agenda down or voting 0:23:30.119 --> 0:23:33.000 against it. So they're there, and they also have a 0:23:33.080 --> 0:23:37.040 vision of governments, which there are still lots of liberals 0:23:37.080 --> 0:23:38.879 I think who criticize it and say it's all based 0:23:38.880 --> 0:23:42.080 on Trump's adjuta and what his biases were from twenty 0:23:42.160 --> 0:23:45.120 years ago. He's obsessed with Japan and the trade deficit. 0:23:45.840 --> 0:23:47.760 They're all in on it, and they also have a 0:23:47.840 --> 0:23:52.120 vision of the country that is understandable. I could sum up, Okay, 0:23:52.119 --> 0:23:56.400 if Republicans get everything they want, total stopped, integration, prices 0:23:56.440 --> 0:23:58.600 go down for zero some reasons. I'm not saying that's right. 0:23:58.640 --> 0:24:03.000 I'm saying that's what the vision is. A smaller welfare state. 0:24:03.119 --> 0:24:05.879 You have to work harder to be part of a 0:24:05.960 --> 0:24:09.320 foreign policy. We're paying more attention to the Western hemisphere 0:24:09.359 --> 0:24:11.959 than the rest of the world, except when you want 0:24:12.000 --> 0:24:13.720 to know about these prize and you need to bomb Ran. 0:24:14.840 --> 0:24:18.560 But the Democratic vision, and for all the burbiage they 0:24:18.600 --> 0:24:21.080 spent about this, their problem is for the first time 0:24:21.119 --> 0:24:23.639 since nineteen eighty, they had a failed presidency and they 0:24:23.680 --> 0:24:26.240 had a chance to try out their version of how 0:24:26.240 --> 0:24:28.440 the world should work, their vision of what America is. 0:24:28.720 --> 0:24:30.600 People didn't like it. I don't think they've made peace 0:24:30.640 --> 0:24:32.160 with that, and I don't think they have a coherent 0:24:32.560 --> 0:24:34.760 vision that makes sense to people because it's not credible. 0:24:34.800 --> 0:24:38.600 They just had Joe Biden. Theyve American people, They had 0:24:38.600 --> 0:24:42.320 a president try kinesy and stimulus in the economy. It 0:24:42.359 --> 0:24:44.639 led to some inflation. They don't like it, you know, 0:24:44.680 --> 0:24:47.159 need to overcomplicate. I think just that this is the 0:24:47.240 --> 0:24:50.320 least credible Democrats have been on a number of areas. 0:24:50.760 --> 0:24:53.199 And it's not even like whack the mall. They have 0:24:53.200 --> 0:24:56.280 a whackable board. They're like hitting even the mallet to 0:24:56.320 --> 0:24:58.199 hit the headboard instead of the moles. They're really not 0:24:58.480 --> 0:25:01.240 attacking any of the problems they had because it would 0:25:01.280 --> 0:25:04.160 start with saying, like Trump said in twenty fifteen, Hey, 0:25:04.200 --> 0:25:06.200 the Republican Party is terrible and it's screwed up, and 0:25:06.640 --> 0:25:08.320 I'm not gonna apologize. I'm just going to make fun 0:25:08.359 --> 0:25:10.240 of them, say here's a different vision. They don't add that. 0:25:10.280 --> 0:25:12.240 They don't have anyone doing that. No. 0:25:12.440 --> 0:25:16.160 I was talking with Solissa earlier today in our weekly pod, 0:25:16.200 --> 0:25:18.680 and I compared it to because you know, when you 0:25:18.680 --> 0:25:21.000 look at the Wall Street Journal poll that I've sort 0:25:21.040 --> 0:25:23.600 of gone inside out of and just sort of, yeah, 0:25:24.800 --> 0:25:28.280 crawled in every nook and cranny of it, what I 0:25:28.760 --> 0:25:31.320 see is where two things can be true at the 0:25:31.320 --> 0:25:35.040 same time, which is the Trump agenda is baggage for 0:25:35.080 --> 0:25:38.639 the Republican Party hard stop. A Democratic party is even 0:25:38.680 --> 0:25:42.040 more unpopular than the Republican Party right now. What does 0:25:42.040 --> 0:25:45.280 that mean for the midterms? Well, I go back and 0:25:45.280 --> 0:25:46.840 I'm going to go in the way back machine, and 0:25:46.880 --> 0:25:48.440 my apologies for that, but I'm gonna go back to 0:25:48.480 --> 0:25:49.520 the eighty six midterms. 0:25:49.880 --> 0:25:51.840 I love the machine. Let's hang out there. 0:25:51.920 --> 0:25:55.040 Yeah, you know, the eighty six midterms are like, are 0:25:55.280 --> 0:26:00.560 exactly the potential model for Democrats where they have this success, 0:26:00.720 --> 0:26:04.040 they win the Senate back at the time it was 0:26:04.080 --> 0:26:06.280 the Senate that was what they thought they could win back. 0:26:06.280 --> 0:26:08.040 They already had the House that was back during the 0:26:08.600 --> 0:26:11.000 middle of their forty year run, so the Senate was 0:26:11.040 --> 0:26:14.119 really what the midterms were about. And you know, they 0:26:14.160 --> 0:26:16.159 had a front runner presidential candidate at the time and 0:26:16.200 --> 0:26:18.320 Gary Hart, so that it looked like. 0:26:18.240 --> 0:26:19.200 They were on the march. 0:26:19.640 --> 0:26:22.720 Right, they win the Senate, hearts, candidacy collapses, it turns 0:26:22.720 --> 0:26:25.280 into a free for all, and the Democratic Party gets 0:26:25.280 --> 0:26:28.520 whacked again right by eighty eight, And I could easily 0:26:28.560 --> 0:26:32.239 see both things happening. Democrats narrowly sort of winning the midterms, right, 0:26:32.280 --> 0:26:35.159 getting the House, maybe netting a Senate seat, you know, 0:26:35.880 --> 0:26:38.760 not quite winning the Senate, but sort of looking like 0:26:38.840 --> 0:26:42.960 they moved, you know, they moved the ball forward, only 0:26:43.000 --> 0:26:46.560 to see the divides in the party just totally unravel 0:26:46.640 --> 0:26:51.840 them in twenty eight. So that's a model that I've 0:26:51.840 --> 0:26:54.119 been you know, is it You could picture the Democrats 0:26:54.200 --> 0:26:56.399 learning the wrong lessons that their success When when you 0:26:56.400 --> 0:26:59.080 look at that Wall Street Journal poll, you had a 0:26:59.440 --> 0:27:01.760 huge majority saying that they don't think Congress is pushing 0:27:01.800 --> 0:27:05.160 back hard enough on the president. You have unpopularity there, 0:27:05.200 --> 0:27:07.760 So you see how you can run an anti campaign 0:27:07.760 --> 0:27:10.119 and win in the midterms, but it doesn't do anything 0:27:10.119 --> 0:27:12.280 to improve the Democratic brand going into twenty eight. 0:27:13.000 --> 0:27:14.760 Yes, and I was just talking about how that brand 0:27:14.800 --> 0:27:17.320 is affected by the actual record of the party. I 0:27:17.320 --> 0:27:19.520 don't think the Democrats like hearing that because they'll say, well, 0:27:19.520 --> 0:27:21.359 what was the Trump record in twenty twenty. We just 0:27:21.359 --> 0:27:24.240 had we had a we had a pandemic and budget 0:27:24.400 --> 0:27:27.280 and he got fired. Yes, like that's the thing. 0:27:27.520 --> 0:27:30.119 Like the public didn't like it. You're right, and guess 0:27:30.160 --> 0:27:31.520 what they didn't like you either. 0:27:32.080 --> 0:27:35.360 Yeah, and Trump came up with something I think basically unrepeatable, 0:27:35.400 --> 0:27:38.359 which is, well, I was stinnied as president and the 0:27:38.400 --> 0:27:40.520 deep state stopped me from doing what I really would 0:27:40.560 --> 0:27:42.560 have done, and I could have fixed it. And I'm 0:27:42.560 --> 0:27:44.200 still a little bit to run again. So life pull 0:27:44.240 --> 0:27:48.360 this off. And yes, in theory, Bill, I suppose Joe 0:27:48.359 --> 0:27:51.320 Biden isn't only living Democratic to try that. Give me, 0:27:51.520 --> 0:27:54.840 give me one more shot this that's not going to happen. No, really, 0:27:54.920 --> 0:28:01.600 they they Italy holler bien. Yeah, but that's I start 0:28:01.600 --> 0:28:04.840 with the Democrats problems because yeah, I've done my way 0:28:04.840 --> 0:28:07.879 back machine visit was I read Outcrum's memoir of creating 0:28:07.880 --> 0:28:11.120 the Democratic Leadership Council, which when I started out reporting, 0:28:11.160 --> 0:28:13.560 which really was writing my own stories two thousand and 0:28:13.560 --> 0:28:14.480 four ars or dous and five. 0:28:14.680 --> 0:28:17.840 Oh, that was at the peak anti DLC craz Yes, 0:28:18.640 --> 0:28:19.520 a the beginning of that. 0:28:19.840 --> 0:28:23.360 Yeah, and the mindset at the time, And a lot 0:28:23.359 --> 0:28:26.280 of this comes from this Democrat the democrats belief in 0:28:26.960 --> 0:28:31.480 democratic demographic destiny, which they stopped believing in, was why 0:28:31.560 --> 0:28:33.240 do we have to do that. There's a lot of 0:28:33.240 --> 0:28:37.359 you know, J. K. Chesterton's fence, the old analogy, if 0:28:37.400 --> 0:28:39.920 there's a if there's an offense somewhere, you don't know 0:28:40.280 --> 0:28:42.239 the reason. If you understand why it was put up, 0:28:42.240 --> 0:28:43.720 you can't just tear it down. There must have been 0:28:43.800 --> 0:28:46.120 some reason. That's what happened with the DLCs. A lot 0:28:46.160 --> 0:28:48.480 of Democrats came into the process at the end of 0:28:48.480 --> 0:28:51.760 the Bush years and said this, this is a disaster. 0:28:51.920 --> 0:28:55.920 There's all these wimpy moderate Democrats or conservative Democrats who 0:28:56.000 --> 0:28:58.280 voted for the disaster, voting for George W. Bush's war. 0:28:58.680 --> 0:29:00.080 Why do we do that in the first place, we 0:29:00.080 --> 0:29:02.280 can build a new majority. Then Brock Obama did it, 0:29:02.360 --> 0:29:06.320 and it's ten years of let's repeat the Obama experiment, 0:29:06.880 --> 0:29:10.400 the experiment, let's repeat the Obama map. We can, we 0:29:10.440 --> 0:29:13.360 can do it, we can. We can lose by attrition 0:29:13.520 --> 0:29:17.479 working class voters because they're being replaced over time. That 0:29:17.520 --> 0:29:19.960 doesn't end not to get into the entirest to last 0:29:20.040 --> 0:29:21.720 a couple of years. That's what happened to the DLC. 0:29:22.520 --> 0:29:25.360 That book's useful because they were doing things that wouldn't 0:29:25.400 --> 0:29:28.960 work anymore. They It was a very media focused narrative. 0:29:29.000 --> 0:29:31.560 Focus the narrative, and by narrative, I mean it was 0:29:31.600 --> 0:29:35.560 built for a time when Americans read basically, if they 0:29:35.600 --> 0:29:38.080 didn't read or watch the same news outlets, it was 0:29:38.120 --> 0:29:40.400 understood those new dead let's had the power to shape 0:29:41.120 --> 0:29:41.840 the storylines. 0:29:41.880 --> 0:29:44.520 And so the deal news magazines had they were I 0:29:44.560 --> 0:29:46.600 always said they were the social media of our time. 0:29:46.840 --> 0:29:49.480 Who was on the cover of Time and Newsweeks and 0:29:49.560 --> 0:29:51.400 even US News. 0:29:50.840 --> 0:29:54.880 Meant something both pop culturally and politically. Yeah, and I 0:29:54.880 --> 0:29:57.080 guess I'm I'm in the media, so everything I think 0:29:57.080 --> 0:29:59.120 the media is important. But but no, it's is every 0:29:59.120 --> 0:30:01.680 Democrats trying to figure out how to live in this 0:30:01.800 --> 0:30:04.200 environment where you can get the most glowing profile of 0:30:04.240 --> 0:30:07.080 what you did in Time magazine and it doesn't matter 0:30:07.120 --> 0:30:09.560 because you looked really embarrassing in an online video that 0:30:09.640 --> 0:30:11.800 got shared a lot of times. So the DLC would 0:30:11.840 --> 0:30:13.760 have these meetings around the country and say, Okay, we've 0:30:13.760 --> 0:30:16.920 got Bill Clinton, We've got Bruce Babbott, we've got Mike 0:30:16.960 --> 0:30:19.640 Dukakkas Speed part of some of these meet these young 0:30:19.720 --> 0:30:22.800 future Democrats who have new ideas and reporters would come 0:30:22.840 --> 0:30:25.680 to them and they meet the Democrats. Donors would come. 0:30:26.120 --> 0:30:30.280 There was just you could build a momentum through this discourse. 0:30:30.320 --> 0:30:33.000 And that discourse has shattered. We're on a podcast. That's 0:30:33.040 --> 0:30:36.080 another example of how all you could do. Actually going 0:30:36.160 --> 0:30:37.600 to go back, if you really wanted to do this, 0:30:37.720 --> 0:30:40.440 go to your go research every David brodercolumn and then 0:30:40.520 --> 0:30:43.320 from nineteen eighty five to nineteen ninety and it would 0:30:43.320 --> 0:30:47.040 be a parade of new kind of Democrat, new kind 0:30:47.080 --> 0:30:49.520 of democrat, new kind of democrat. 0:30:49.080 --> 0:30:51.640 You know, And it was all about that, you know. 0:30:51.920 --> 0:30:55.080 It was all these governors, right, and the Southern governors. 0:30:55.120 --> 0:30:55.280 You know. 0:30:55.280 --> 0:30:57.640 I always say Bill Clinton's presidency was supposed to be 0:30:57.760 --> 0:31:01.960 Chuck Robb's presidency, right. It was all the entire the 0:31:02.440 --> 0:31:06.240 entire delegate selection process, the creation of super delegates, right, 0:31:06.480 --> 0:31:10.040 the Stop Jesse Jackson movement. It was all designed to 0:31:10.080 --> 0:31:12.160 help the southern governors. And at the time it was 0:31:12.280 --> 0:31:16.040 lbj son in law Chuck Rob governor of Virginia, that 0:31:16.240 --> 0:31:18.440 everybody assumed would be the great beneficiary. 0:31:18.680 --> 0:31:21.640 Why because Chuck Rob lived in the Washington DC media market, 0:31:21.680 --> 0:31:22.480 is what I always say. 0:31:22.600 --> 0:31:25.360 So it gave him this sort of perceived leg up 0:31:25.440 --> 0:31:29.480 on perception, and then of course he turned out not 0:31:29.520 --> 0:31:31.920 to be a very good politician. This is pre scandal forget. 0:31:32.160 --> 0:31:34.200 He just wasn't that good at this. He was a 0:31:34.240 --> 0:31:38.200 great he was a resume guy. But Bill Clinton and 0:31:38.240 --> 0:31:42.120 frankly Michael Dukakas in eighty eight both benefited from the 0:31:42.200 --> 0:31:45.680 Super Tuesday organization, which was a total DLC. You know, 0:31:45.840 --> 0:31:48.800 the DLC was also tactical. They knew that if they 0:31:48.880 --> 0:31:52.120 created Southern Super Tuesday, it was a way to insulate 0:31:52.200 --> 0:31:56.040 them from a super lefty becoming the nominee. 0:31:56.720 --> 0:32:00.480 Yes, and that infrastructure obviously is completely different, and the 0:32:00.520 --> 0:32:05.040 media they're operating is completely different. The fractal I've been 0:32:05.040 --> 0:32:07.880 paying attention to to just see how different this is. 0:32:08.760 --> 0:32:11.000 It's isolate. One thing Democrats are trying to do. There 0:32:11.080 --> 0:32:16.120 is a very stop start conversation they're having about, let's 0:32:16.120 --> 0:32:19.440 just call it the Biden administration's position on gender and 0:32:19.480 --> 0:32:24.760 transgender rights and the sword version, which i nick The 0:32:24.800 --> 0:32:27.320 New York Times had had a very very long piece 0:32:27.360 --> 0:32:31.040 based on scrimmitting decisions outcome that gets into this history. 0:32:31.360 --> 0:32:34.360 But basically Trump Biden says trans right to be a 0:32:34.360 --> 0:32:37.680 civil rights station of our time. He reverses a lot 0:32:37.720 --> 0:32:41.560 of the Obama Sorry, Obama starts to be more accepting 0:32:41.680 --> 0:32:45.480 of trans people. Gender is a septacritical working sex. Trump 0:32:45.560 --> 0:32:49.520 undoes it. Biden puts it back into effect. Trump unwinds 0:32:49.560 --> 0:32:52.840 it all, and there's this very stop start conversation about 0:32:53.120 --> 0:32:55.920 did Democrats was that a mistake? Did Democrats need to 0:32:55.960 --> 0:32:59.360 rethink this? The way it's being done is that occasionally 0:32:59.440 --> 0:33:02.400 a Democrat will get asked a question about some aspect 0:33:02.440 --> 0:33:05.200 of this issue, not the every Biden executive order, but 0:33:05.840 --> 0:33:09.160 the sports aspect of the issue, and a Senator or 0:33:09.200 --> 0:33:13.160 a Congressman We'll get asked and they'll say what they think. 0:33:13.400 --> 0:33:16.640 They'll get piled on by tre be majority, but just 0:33:17.280 --> 0:33:21.320 every every group in this space, human rights campaign. I'm 0:33:21.360 --> 0:33:24.680 glad the new groups like Christopher Street Project will come 0:33:24.680 --> 0:33:28.200 in and say this person is betraying our movement. No 0:33:28.240 --> 0:33:30.400 one can lead our party. And also what fort lab 0:33:30.400 --> 0:33:32.520 They'll say, and they're weak. This is weakness. This is 0:33:32.560 --> 0:33:35.920 the Democrat who is responding to defeat by abandoning a 0:33:35.960 --> 0:33:39.720 section of party. Won't they abandon? What is next? And 0:33:40.080 --> 0:33:43.720 they're they I've not seen people respond to that by 0:33:43.920 --> 0:33:46.280 saying I was I was wrong. We're giving a new 0:33:46.320 --> 0:33:48.640 interview and saying I was completely right. They just don't 0:33:48.680 --> 0:33:52.440 come at again. Ruby Guyego went through this, the Santra Arizona, 0:33:53.400 --> 0:33:56.480 Seth Molton went through this. Massachusetts, there's the there's a 0:33:56.560 --> 0:34:01.200 very good reporter, Oreana Gonzalez that notice, who's been doing 0:34:01.240 --> 0:34:03.720 iterative stories about House Democrats trying to come up with 0:34:03.760 --> 0:34:07.200 some position, but they're not having the conversation in public. 0:34:07.240 --> 0:34:09.200 And the DLC had a lot of conversations in public. 0:34:09.239 --> 0:34:11.560 And this is the hardest one because they are just 0:34:11.640 --> 0:34:13.759 parents every day affected by this issue. I'd bring up 0:34:13.760 --> 0:34:17.399 the hardest one because it's the one that I've seen 0:34:17.480 --> 0:34:20.840 Democrats touch the stove and pull it away from the vassist. 0:34:20.880 --> 0:34:23.279 But you could say the same for immigration. Immigration is 0:34:23.280 --> 0:34:28.040 even stranger because now today Nearri Canna has an article 0:34:28.200 --> 0:34:30.040 in the Wall Street Journal about how they're going forward. 0:34:30.520 --> 0:34:33.240 But there's no Democrat who's come out and said very clearly, 0:34:33.280 --> 0:34:35.480 here's I'm giving a speech and a place where reporters 0:34:35.480 --> 0:34:39.279 will be. Biden was a disaster. He let our party down, 0:34:39.320 --> 0:34:42.200 and he was wrong on immigration, and instead here is 0:34:42.280 --> 0:34:45.120 an immigration position that is going to piss off people 0:34:45.160 --> 0:34:47.680 who thought that who believed in one thing, and to 0:34:47.920 --> 0:34:51.040 in twenty twenty, who believed that, for example, that asylum 0:34:51.120 --> 0:34:53.120 is the human rights which is a sign that a 0:34:53.120 --> 0:34:57.120 lot of Democrats campaign behind. Literally, they're not doing that. 0:34:57.680 --> 0:34:59.560 I'm going to float something in Interview'm going to float 0:34:59.560 --> 0:35:02.320 into the pod. They would notice, Well, hopefully some people notice. 0:35:02.440 --> 0:35:05.440 It is very hesitant and odd, and you can trust 0:35:05.440 --> 0:35:08.400 that with Republicans and Trump, Trump can say something and 0:35:08.400 --> 0:35:10.919 then there is a discourse around when Trump is saying, 0:35:11.040 --> 0:35:12.920 do you Republicans agree with Trump? And they not agree 0:35:12.960 --> 0:35:15.520 with him. He just put out our new position on 0:35:15.920 --> 0:35:18.520 trade or on whatever it is, or whatever it is, 0:35:18.960 --> 0:35:20.799 and it's not like I didn't go off in question 0:35:20.880 --> 0:35:22.760 gets asked, oh, well, who's the leader of the party. 0:35:22.960 --> 0:35:25.359 That's the same of the DLC. You know, need a leader, 0:35:25.400 --> 0:35:28.160 You needed just some sort of coherent network that was 0:35:28.160 --> 0:35:31.399 having a conversation that people understood was a conversation about 0:35:31.400 --> 0:35:33.640 the party. You also had the progressive of the Jesse Jackson. 0:35:33.719 --> 0:35:36.799 I'm saying, here's our conversation, here's our populism. It's just 0:35:36.840 --> 0:35:39.799 this very anomized selection of groups. And I say this 0:35:39.840 --> 0:35:42.279 in the reporters. I've just had to build charts of 0:35:42.560 --> 0:35:45.640 which group says which. Because news stories still exists and 0:35:45.680 --> 0:35:48.520 TV's story still exists, you can only quote so many people. 0:35:49.000 --> 0:35:52.200 But it's this total post Tower of Babel cacophony of 0:35:52.200 --> 0:35:55.360 who stands for what in the party and very unclear 0:35:55.560 --> 0:35:58.600 what their position is on anything, because they're not starting with, hey, 0:35:58.640 --> 0:36:02.080 Biden was wrong, here's why he was wrong. I'm willing 0:36:02.120 --> 0:36:05.480 to have Mike Donaldan tell me, I'm i stink. I'm 0:36:05.480 --> 0:36:07.560 willing to have hundred to buy meal. Let me who cares. 0:36:07.960 --> 0:36:10.560 They're not doing that, They're not confronting that they had 0:36:10.600 --> 0:36:11.480 a failed presidency. 0:36:12.360 --> 0:36:15.319 It's a great point and it really gets it. And 0:36:15.360 --> 0:36:19.080 that's the question I've had this conversation. Have the Democrats 0:36:19.160 --> 0:36:22.480 lost enough yet to realize they have to change right. 0:36:23.920 --> 0:36:24.560 Eighty four and. 0:36:24.520 --> 0:36:27.920 Eighty eight, you know, they they tried to make changes, 0:36:27.960 --> 0:36:30.960 and yet they didn't say Carter was a failed presidency 0:36:31.280 --> 0:36:33.400 going in eighty four. How could they They nominated the 0:36:33.440 --> 0:36:37.040 vice president, right, And that was back when Labor really 0:36:37.160 --> 0:36:38.200 was controlling the party. 0:36:38.280 --> 0:36:40.600 Right. Labor was sort of the. 0:36:40.000 --> 0:36:43.520 The They were the bridge, right, they were the force 0:36:43.560 --> 0:36:46.719 that sort of brought factions together because they had the money, right, 0:36:46.760 --> 0:36:50.799 they had the money, and then they could certainly impact primaries. 0:36:52.400 --> 0:36:55.120 And then the DLC is born basically in ninety five 0:36:55.160 --> 0:36:57.839 after the Mondale shellaking. To sort of stay with your 0:36:57.840 --> 0:37:02.920 timeline there and whether if Hart stays who was easily 0:37:02.960 --> 0:37:07.640 sort of the deals Arguably he was DLC ish right, 0:37:07.719 --> 0:37:10.279 because he had both right. He was seen as the 0:37:10.320 --> 0:37:13.560 guy who ran McGovern's campaign in seventy two, who was 0:37:13.600 --> 0:37:15.920 an interventionist and who was like, you know, he was 0:37:16.000 --> 0:37:19.200 not easily and he was this sort of Bill Clinton 0:37:20.080 --> 0:37:20.560 like figure. 0:37:20.600 --> 0:37:21.480 Before Bill Clinton. 0:37:21.800 --> 0:37:24.360 It looked like he had the ability to bridge the 0:37:24.480 --> 0:37:27.560 union part of the party and this sort of Western 0:37:27.719 --> 0:37:32.040 sort of Hey, he's he's a bit cool, right, he's 0:37:32.080 --> 0:37:35.960 warn Baby's friend, you know, and then he collapses and 0:37:36.000 --> 0:37:39.600 then it was then all the factions came back. Labor 0:37:39.920 --> 0:37:42.080 decided to you know, get behind, get part eighty eight 0:37:42.080 --> 0:37:42.760 and all this stuff. 0:37:42.880 --> 0:37:46.239 And it took him. You know, it took two presidential 0:37:46.320 --> 0:37:50.640 shellackings for them to get religion. And arguably they didn't 0:37:50.640 --> 0:37:53.080 even think ninety you know, most of the major figures 0:37:53.120 --> 0:37:56.919 of the party conceded ninety two early on, thinking that 0:37:56.920 --> 0:37:59.239 that was a useless exercise to try to knock off 0:37:59.239 --> 0:38:01.920 the sitting president. And then lo and behold, Bill Clinton 0:38:01.920 --> 0:38:03.640 showed that there was a way to do this. I 0:38:03.680 --> 0:38:06.239 want to pick up on something on immigration because the 0:38:06.239 --> 0:38:09.040 Wall Street Journal poll and I think this is the 0:38:09.440 --> 0:38:12.719 you why is Trump's numbers starting to go upside down 0:38:12.760 --> 0:38:13.360 on immigration? 0:38:14.000 --> 0:38:17.920 Because there really is two distinct features of the issue. 0:38:18.719 --> 0:38:22.640 Border security is what people wanted, and that was the 0:38:22.680 --> 0:38:25.680 massive failure of the Biden administration, and that has been 0:38:25.960 --> 0:38:29.920 the initial success and what people wanted from Trump when 0:38:30.000 --> 0:38:31.920 you ask and I saw that the Wall Street Journal 0:38:32.000 --> 0:38:35.120 did a split sample asking Trump's job rating on immigration, 0:38:35.200 --> 0:38:37.400 and then they did half sample Trump's job rating on 0:38:37.520 --> 0:38:42.040 illegal immigration. His numbers were better in dealing with illegal immigration. 0:38:42.160 --> 0:38:44.840 His numbers were worse when it was just immigration. It 0:38:44.880 --> 0:38:47.719 turns out what the country wanted was they didn't like 0:38:47.760 --> 0:38:50.480 the chaos at the border. Yeah, they didn't mean they 0:38:50.520 --> 0:38:52.280 wanted to get rid of every migrant in the country. 0:38:52.680 --> 0:38:56.080 And I think that that's the opening here. And ironically, 0:38:56.440 --> 0:39:00.359 that was the Democratic position under Obama. Tough on the ball, order, 0:39:01.160 --> 0:39:04.120 lenient on my and fought pathway to citizenship for people 0:39:04.200 --> 0:39:06.879 already here. And it turned out that's a fifty five 0:39:06.920 --> 0:39:10.680 to sixty percent agreement message. And for some reason, I 0:39:10.719 --> 0:39:13.279 go back, it's a debate I moderated. I go back 0:39:13.280 --> 0:39:16.759 to that first debate where they decriminalize, where everybody on 0:39:16.800 --> 0:39:20.080 stage but Joe Biden and one other wanted to decriminalize 0:39:20.080 --> 0:39:22.200 the border, and You're like, oh my god. 0:39:22.239 --> 0:39:23.719 It was like they were all high in their own 0:39:23.719 --> 0:39:27.600 supply in that moment. Yeah, I think that that's the 0:39:27.600 --> 0:39:31.000 immigration just conversation I'm talking about. It was try's so 0:39:31.120 --> 0:39:34.040 fourth and how that's gotten further. It's been interesting to 0:39:34.040 --> 0:39:36.239 watch Frank Sherry, who was at Family's USA for a 0:39:36.239 --> 0:39:39.280 long time, say, yeah, the movement got over its skis 0:39:39.320 --> 0:39:42.640 on this and this is one of Trump's strengths and 0:39:42.640 --> 0:39:45.040 I'm trying to put it in the right way. Is 0:39:45.880 --> 0:39:49.200 sometimes you do something and it's unpopular and it's extreme, 0:39:49.280 --> 0:39:51.200 and it backfires and you're just credit. No one does 0:39:51.200 --> 0:39:53.759 it again. This is Sam brown Back in Kansas. A 0:39:53.800 --> 0:39:55.799 Reblicans still can't win a governor Grace in Kansas because 0:39:55.840 --> 0:39:58.400 it is tax plant sage disaster. Trump has done some 0:39:58.560 --> 0:40:00.600 things that I think it's the third pause. Nobody's going 0:40:00.640 --> 0:40:03.000 to like Obamacare. It can be hacked away at, but 0:40:03.000 --> 0:40:06.879 nobody's running out your failing anymore. But he's also done 0:40:06.920 --> 0:40:10.400 some things where he his response is so angering to progressive, 0:40:13.000 --> 0:40:18.479 attacked so many of their political no just I would 0:40:18.520 --> 0:40:21.879 say what they think is American period, that they will 0:40:21.880 --> 0:40:25.440 overreact and with immigration, that's what happened is there's a 0:40:25.480 --> 0:40:26.960 lot of Democrats and the thing you said about two 0:40:26.960 --> 0:40:29.440 thousand and eight, the Democrats in this space the sort 0:40:29.480 --> 0:40:31.879 of way to share a Metagalasius types. They often will say, 0:40:31.920 --> 0:40:34.000 just go back to two as an eight twenty twelve 0:40:34.040 --> 0:40:36.680 Obama he said things that Democrats don't say anymore, and 0:40:36.680 --> 0:40:43.040 they were popular and Democrats voted for offense. Right, you 0:40:43.040 --> 0:40:44.719 could call it a wall. It is a defense. Is 0:40:44.760 --> 0:40:48.719 a wall? Yo, Read the language and the platform, because 0:40:48.719 --> 0:40:50.560 I've talked to some people are in the democratic polling 0:40:50.960 --> 0:40:54.680 and data space who've just gone back and looked a 0:40:54.719 --> 0:40:56.879 platforn You can look at a platform language with somebody 0:40:56.880 --> 0:40:59.239 with a time to just do regression and say what 0:40:59.280 --> 0:41:01.800 words drop out out, what words come in the party 0:41:01.800 --> 0:41:05.320 just gets much more optimistic about its future and cannot 0:41:05.360 --> 0:41:11.560 imagine a backsliding which has already happened to something that is, 0:41:11.680 --> 0:41:16.879 let's say, backsliding to a right wing country. I'm trying 0:41:16.960 --> 0:41:19.920 not to try to overegg what I'm saying now. The 0:41:19.960 --> 0:41:24.000 Trump thing on immigration is he's president. He starting to 0:41:24.000 --> 0:41:26.000 tries to build a wall. There's a Republican division on that, 0:41:26.040 --> 0:41:28.360 and Tom Tillis, who's retiring when the Republicans wh complains 0:41:28.360 --> 0:41:31.879 about a moving military money to fund the wall. He 0:41:32.360 --> 0:41:37.400 has very visible deportation facilities. Those are unpopular. There's actually 0:41:37.440 --> 0:41:39.879 the whole remain in Mexico policy in part comes from 0:41:39.880 --> 0:41:43.760 not wanting that imagery of camps because American sea camps 0:41:43.760 --> 0:41:46.160 and they have associations. They don't like to thank that 0:41:46.200 --> 0:41:50.879 the deeps in other countries there's less cameras exactly, and 0:41:52.160 --> 0:41:55.240 then that keeps going. I'm covering the twenty nineteen Democratic 0:41:55.280 --> 0:41:58.520 primary at this point, and that poll will Braves hand Its. 0:41:58.560 --> 0:42:01.759 It is such a great question for Democrats comes from 0:42:01.760 --> 0:42:03.520 this discourse saying how do we prevent this from ever 0:42:03.520 --> 0:42:07.839 happening again? Well, instead of deportation being a criminal, it's 0:42:07.840 --> 0:42:10.680 already a civil ALTI what if it's something even less. 0:42:10.680 --> 0:42:12.319 What if you're just you're allowed to show up and 0:42:12.360 --> 0:42:15.600 say I'm I'm demanding asylum because look at how terrible 0:42:15.600 --> 0:42:19.279 Trump is. This is not America, m E. Lazarus, Poem, etcetera, etc. 0:42:20.120 --> 0:42:22.319 That we need to make sure that no Trump can 0:42:22.360 --> 0:42:24.760 ever happen again. And that's a lot of the Biden 0:42:24.840 --> 0:42:27.520 premise in twenty twenty. I'm going to run Trump will 0:42:27.520 --> 0:42:29.960 be an aberration, This will never happen again. Part of 0:42:29.960 --> 0:42:33.239 that never happened again agenda. Everyone deserves asylum. And so 0:42:33.480 --> 0:42:38.280 they got themselves into a very humanitarian, emotional immigration position 0:42:38.800 --> 0:42:42.560 that they cannot defend. And the result. I mentioned those 0:42:42.600 --> 0:42:44.520 camps because one thing that Trump is doing in this 0:42:44.640 --> 0:42:47.360 term unthinkable last term, going to them, just going to 0:42:47.440 --> 0:42:51.000 the sending Christine home to Salvador, personally, going to Aliger 0:42:51.040 --> 0:42:54.040 Ralpatraz in Florida with this confidence that the country has 0:42:54.040 --> 0:42:57.960 moved so far towards him on immigration and deportation that 0:42:58.080 --> 0:43:01.400 they're going to buy and I have some people merchandise 0:43:01.520 --> 0:43:04.920 from the detention camps. So how did Democrats get in 0:43:04.920 --> 0:43:08.439 that position? They did overreact to Trump and they didn't 0:43:08.440 --> 0:43:12.160 come up with their own coherent immigration policy. That was 0:43:12.200 --> 0:43:14.280 what they were skipping. There was a coherent you're affording 0:43:14.320 --> 0:43:17.920 to it. There was a coherent Obama policy to on order, security, lenient, 0:43:17.960 --> 0:43:20.760 on pathway to citizenship. A question I like to ask 0:43:21.000 --> 0:43:22.680 the Democrats I talked to, like the ones who are 0:43:22.760 --> 0:43:25.040 running for Andy Basher I talked to last week, and 0:43:25.040 --> 0:43:28.279 I'm editing something is I'll ask who deserves to be here? 0:43:28.640 --> 0:43:31.640 Like beyond if you're born in America, you're on the 0:43:31.719 --> 0:43:34.279 process right now getting naturalized. Who else deserves to be 0:43:34.320 --> 0:43:38.800 an American? And the answers have been not. Bascher's answer 0:43:38.960 --> 0:43:42.319 was involving well, you know, it's about the workforce. Well 0:43:42.360 --> 0:43:44.440 even that, that's how they're saying. In twenty nineteen there 0:43:44.440 --> 0:43:47.279 were Democrats and I was saying, we need immigrants here 0:43:47.320 --> 0:43:50.080 for the workforce, and that's it. They were saying, Hey, 0:43:50.080 --> 0:43:53.360 if there are people seeking asylum somewhere. I remember Democrats 0:43:53.360 --> 0:43:55.920 having Trudeau envy because they were watching Justin Trudeau in 0:43:55.960 --> 0:43:59.200 Canada personally welcome Syrian refugees and saying, what if this 0:43:59.239 --> 0:44:01.399 country was like that? What if this country was taking 0:44:01.440 --> 0:44:03.600 in more refugees. We used to be like that. We 0:44:03.719 --> 0:44:07.600 used to be like that during the gerald Ford operation 0:44:07.680 --> 0:44:10.839 that brought people from Vietnam. The country's moved so far 0:44:10.920 --> 0:44:13.720 right because of the backlash to Biden, and the backlash 0:44:13.800 --> 0:44:16.600 was engendered by Fox News et cetera coverage of the border, 0:44:18.080 --> 0:44:20.600 what other areas, So the Democrats not realize that the 0:44:20.600 --> 0:44:23.879 country has moved away from them, because I do think 0:44:24.160 --> 0:44:27.319 both parties storytelling of a lot of politics. But I 0:44:27.360 --> 0:44:30.080 wrote a callum out this Kawisco. In Democrats' minds, the 0:44:30.160 --> 0:44:34.480 way history moves is that something outrageous happens and people 0:44:34.480 --> 0:44:37.680 get up in the streets and protests, and then the 0:44:37.719 --> 0:44:41.520 people who were defending outrageous thing crack down the protesters, 0:44:41.719 --> 0:44:43.719 and the whole country looks at that and says that 0:44:43.760 --> 0:44:46.240 can't happen, and they move on. It never happens again. 0:44:46.600 --> 0:44:49.680 And I'm not trying to impugne Democrats or say that 0:44:50.600 --> 0:44:53.080 just in covering them, listening to the rhetoric a lot 0:44:53.080 --> 0:44:55.320 of their rhetoric assumes that there's going to be a 0:44:55.440 --> 0:44:58.319 selma for the outrage. There's going to this is what 0:44:58.360 --> 0:45:01.120 happened immigration hundred from what happened under this policy, and 0:45:01.280 --> 0:45:03.600 this refugee policy, this is what's going to happen under 0:45:03.719 --> 0:45:07.919 for gender based rights, trans rights, LGBTQ rights. And when 0:45:07.920 --> 0:45:10.920 it doesn't, they seem to be They seem not to 0:45:10.960 --> 0:45:14.319 know what to do with a Republican party that's very 0:45:14.400 --> 0:45:18.880 comfortable saying things that make fun of human suffering. I 0:45:18.920 --> 0:45:21.600 mentioned the detention camps, but there there is a level 0:45:21.600 --> 0:45:24.760 of mockery for the Trump administration that I think borders 0:45:24.840 --> 0:45:27.680 or maybe has gotten on the border of eu bris. 0:45:27.800 --> 0:45:30.640 They definitely look like a Republican party that can't imagine 0:45:30.640 --> 0:45:32.640 losing ever again, which is how you get into trouble. 0:45:33.320 --> 0:45:35.520 They might go back and regret some of the gladness 0:45:35.600 --> 0:45:38.400 with which they talk about these issues. But Democrats, I 0:45:38.400 --> 0:45:41.879 think we're just not ready for a cultural shift away 0:45:41.880 --> 0:45:44.160 from them, and they're looking at these polls and saying 0:45:44.160 --> 0:45:47.560 this poll says that Trump's some unpopular immigration, But what 0:45:47.560 --> 0:45:49.600 does that mean when you come back, it's who deserves 0:45:49.640 --> 0:45:51.760 to be in the country. Correct? When it comes to 0:45:51.840 --> 0:45:54.600 who does what does ender mean in the law, There 0:45:54.600 --> 0:45:57.040 are these tough questions. They just punted because they said, well, 0:45:57.560 --> 0:46:00.560 from it's unpopular, we're going to go I'm not trying 0:46:00.600 --> 0:46:02.120 to ramb I'm just trying to bring things together. Same 0:46:02.120 --> 0:46:04.600 thing with gender happened. A lot of the movement on 0:46:05.160 --> 0:46:08.719 people's acceptance of trans rights was not a lot some 0:46:08.800 --> 0:46:11.279 of it was driven by Trump, by people saying, why 0:46:11.360 --> 0:46:13.360 is he being so cruel to people who are trans 0:46:13.360 --> 0:46:15.200 and just want to live their lives? Sert of a 0:46:15.200 --> 0:46:16.000 military the. 0:46:15.960 --> 0:46:20.000 Libertarian look, we are Americans are libertarian. Americans are always 0:46:20.000 --> 0:46:23.040 been libertarian on social issues, like even no matter when 0:46:23.080 --> 0:46:24.919 you push it, both on the right and the left, 0:46:25.000 --> 0:46:27.240 so that ultimately say hey, don't be cruel to people. 0:46:27.640 --> 0:46:28.359 Live and let live. 0:46:28.400 --> 0:46:32.960 There's live and let live is mostly usually one out 0:46:33.080 --> 0:46:36.520 over time. Right, the ark of cultural stuff is always 0:46:36.520 --> 0:46:42.040 bent towards that. And you know, it's sort of like, 0:46:42.080 --> 0:46:45.879 why is Caitlin General a Republican? I think people need 0:46:46.000 --> 0:46:49.400 like Democrats not ask themselves. Why is Caitlyn Jener a Republican? 0:46:50.360 --> 0:46:51.400 You know, the live and. 0:46:51.440 --> 0:46:57.080 Let live part, But she's not asking to compete in 0:46:57.160 --> 0:47:00.719 women's sports, Right, Like, there's this is the line the 0:47:00.719 --> 0:47:03.680 country's at, which is, hey, you live your life, how 0:47:03.719 --> 0:47:06.920 you live your life. But right, that seems to be 0:47:06.920 --> 0:47:12.239 where the majority position is. I wonder is this the 0:47:12.640 --> 0:47:16.239 so famously Bill Clinton was pro death penalty at a 0:47:16.280 --> 0:47:19.160 time when the party was not, and he of course 0:47:19.560 --> 0:47:23.440 infamously put somebody to death. Went back Ricky Rector I 0:47:23.480 --> 0:47:26.080 think was his name. My memory serves Rectory. 0:47:26.239 --> 0:47:31.680 Yeah, yeah, and it's a very I think it was 0:47:31.719 --> 0:47:34.520 a explosive because he didn't need to go back to Arkansas, 0:47:34.640 --> 0:47:36.759 but he did decide he did. He wanted everybody to 0:47:36.800 --> 0:47:37.640 see what he was doing. 0:47:38.120 --> 0:47:40.080 Yeah, I'm going to go out. It was this was 0:47:40.120 --> 0:47:44.200 to me, this was Sister Soldier times one hundred. If 0:47:44.200 --> 0:47:46.960 you actually think about it, Sister Soldier gets the sort 0:47:47.000 --> 0:47:50.200 of the moniker, if you will. This was actually the 0:47:50.200 --> 0:47:52.880 moment that sort of said, look, I am a different 0:47:52.920 --> 0:47:54.799 type of Democrat, right, you are not. 0:47:55.160 --> 0:47:56.920 I am not soft? Right? 0:47:56.960 --> 0:47:59.600 And that was the fear, right, our democrats too soft 0:47:59.600 --> 0:48:02.360 to lead? Are they too soft to be the leader 0:48:02.360 --> 0:48:04.640 of the country? You know, Reagan was tough, all those 0:48:04.760 --> 0:48:05.760 all that, all that mindset. 0:48:05.800 --> 0:48:08.399 Jimmy Carter was too soft, right, that was the red 0:48:08.440 --> 0:48:11.760 dukakas seen soft mondale sy whatever that is to people, 0:48:11.760 --> 0:48:15.480 but there was a softness to them. And and Bill 0:48:17.160 --> 0:48:18.160 is transgender? 0:48:18.280 --> 0:48:20.919 That issue that is that how a Democrat is going 0:48:20.960 --> 0:48:25.640 to try to exploit the stereotype of the left. And 0:48:25.760 --> 0:48:27.759 is that where we expect, which I know is what 0:48:28.239 --> 0:48:31.640 the trans community fears that they're going to be the 0:48:31.719 --> 0:48:38.239 currency to distance for a Democrat to rebrand themselves or 0:48:38.280 --> 0:48:39.640 the party to rebrand themselves. 0:48:39.719 --> 0:48:42.360 Well, this is a this is a very active conversation 0:48:42.760 --> 0:48:46.879 among Democrats that is mostly underground. Again, w I talked 0:48:46.880 --> 0:48:48.120 about the discos. 0:48:48.800 --> 0:48:51.880 I used to call them conversations, right, like the Biden issue, 0:48:52.200 --> 0:48:56.839 the Biden issue that was the loudest nonversation for the 0:48:57.000 --> 0:48:57.920 entire four years. 0:48:58.320 --> 0:49:01.120 Is Kamala Harris really going to be that this? You know? 0:49:01.320 --> 0:49:02.960 Why is there no trust there? And all this? 0:49:03.040 --> 0:49:06.759 The conversation was concern about Harris and concerned about Biden, right, 0:49:06.800 --> 0:49:10.680 and yet it wasn't It wasn't happening in public enough. 0:49:10.880 --> 0:49:13.040 But you and I were having these conversations almost on 0:49:13.080 --> 0:49:15.839 a daily basis with sources, but nobody was talking about 0:49:15.880 --> 0:49:18.560 it right in public. It was the conversation. So what 0:49:18.600 --> 0:49:20.680 you're saying, is this is today's conversation. 0:49:21.400 --> 0:49:24.760 Yes, And the way that I've heard it from people 0:49:24.840 --> 0:49:29.080 in the democratic ideas space, and I'm talking about the 0:49:29.120 --> 0:49:33.799 sorts that they go to donor conferences, they present, they 0:49:33.800 --> 0:49:36.919 present data, they some of them write columns about it. Again, 0:49:36.960 --> 0:49:39.319 I rich to Sharon John Judis are still are still 0:49:39.360 --> 0:49:41.360 doing this. They had a book that got less intention 0:49:41.440 --> 0:49:43.759 than the Emerging Democrat Majority that came out in twenty 0:49:43.840 --> 0:49:47.720 twenty two, and it's funny life to merge. The Democrat 0:49:47.719 --> 0:49:50.000 majority comes out before Democrats are able to win something. 0:49:50.160 --> 0:49:52.080 Their second what comes outhen Democrats have a pretty good 0:49:52.120 --> 0:49:55.120 min term, so they keep the people get missing missing 0:49:55.320 --> 0:49:56.440 what they're saying. 0:49:57.000 --> 0:49:59.080 By the way, that there's fine reading for my how 0:49:59.160 --> 0:50:02.600 Washington works is Roy to Shay's books, because as when 0:50:02.680 --> 0:50:04.600 my students said, oh my god, I wish i'd read 0:50:04.600 --> 0:50:05.920 this before the twenty four election. 0:50:06.200 --> 0:50:09.719 I would have seen this coming, you know, absolutely, But 0:50:11.480 --> 0:50:13.760 there are this conversation when I was saying, the Democrats 0:50:13.800 --> 0:50:16.239 are kind of talking, coming out and saying something and 0:50:16.280 --> 0:50:18.919 then not saying any something again. Behind the scene, they're 0:50:18.920 --> 0:50:22.640 talking about this a lot, and I don't so I'll 0:50:22.640 --> 0:50:25.360 separate the two things. Immigration will be more important because 0:50:25.400 --> 0:50:28.239 that it turns out that Trump has forced a conversation 0:50:28.280 --> 0:50:30.160 on who deserves to be in the country, what does 0:50:30.160 --> 0:50:32.719 the country mean, what do borders mean? And there are 0:50:32.719 --> 0:50:36.000 Democrats now saying you can't have a country without borders. 0:50:36.040 --> 0:50:38.640 Just he has shifted the conversation his direction on what 0:50:38.680 --> 0:50:39.160 that means. 0:50:41.360 --> 0:50:44.239 It's like the great line of what Bill Clinton said, Hey, yeah, 0:50:44.280 --> 0:50:46.960 the air big government is over. Democrats are saying we 0:50:47.000 --> 0:50:48.120 need a nation with borders. 0:50:48.600 --> 0:50:51.279 Yes, And just one of the Democrats' problems for how 0:50:51.280 --> 0:50:53.920 do you convince the swing voter vunning bee does not 0:50:54.040 --> 0:50:55.960 mean the border is wide open and Anglan come in. 0:50:56.280 --> 0:50:58.480 That has become a problem for them that I think 0:50:58.800 --> 0:51:01.520 is existential for what the aready stands for. I should 0:51:01.520 --> 0:51:03.640 that because it's happened everywhere, like look around the world. 0:51:03.680 --> 0:51:06.680 That has been that has been fatal to center left 0:51:07.120 --> 0:51:12.880 social democratic parties in Europe. Uh, it is in Canada. 0:51:13.480 --> 0:51:14.280 David Cameron. 0:51:14.640 --> 0:51:19.399 We came to the States and said get tougher on migrants. Trust, yes, 0:51:20.440 --> 0:51:21.920 I have first stand experience. 0:51:22.000 --> 0:51:24.839 Yeah, yes, or you lose the conversation and the far 0:51:24.960 --> 0:51:28.239 right takes advantage. That is the warning on the left. 0:51:28.239 --> 0:51:31.080 They called this choice socialism or barbarism, which is just 0:51:31.080 --> 0:51:33.200 a good phrase. But what anyone is very different than 0:51:33.200 --> 0:51:35.520 what demmigrants are running on. And that's the problem that 0:51:35.600 --> 0:51:37.920 they if and I say they sell that problem, I 0:51:37.920 --> 0:51:39.520 mean they just need to come up with something that's 0:51:39.560 --> 0:51:41.480 going to have some groups say you guys are terrible 0:51:41.560 --> 0:51:45.600 racists and you're supporting Trump. Urben Guano Arizona has kind 0:51:45.600 --> 0:51:47.520 of led with his chin on this. And as I'm 0:51:47.560 --> 0:51:50.000 a son of Columbia immigrants, I voted for the Lake 0:51:50.040 --> 0:51:52.279 and Riley Act. I don't regret voting for it. Some 0:51:52.320 --> 0:51:54.600 people who are in the country don't deserve to be here. 0:51:54.680 --> 0:51:56.800 Come at me, But what does that mean as a 0:51:56.800 --> 0:51:59.240 full policy? Still bring that out on the gender stuff 0:51:59.560 --> 0:52:02.920 that that has become, that has been more complicated because 0:52:03.719 --> 0:52:07.560 the way that they look into this. If I can 0:52:08.480 --> 0:52:11.799 just quickly, I always I'm sorry I summarize it without 0:52:11.800 --> 0:52:16.719 being blase about what happened. But gay marriage, which was 0:52:16.960 --> 0:52:19.040 the fight for gay marriage, which we were both covering 0:52:19.200 --> 0:52:23.640 for years, was very incremental inch by inch. A lot 0:52:23.640 --> 0:52:26.360 of Democrats not even in committing to endorseing gay marriage, 0:52:26.360 --> 0:52:28.480 like Barack Obama until twenty twelve. 0:52:28.560 --> 0:52:32.680 And Human Rights Campaign's board was divided about Yeah, you know, 0:52:32.760 --> 0:52:37.040 after the shellacking that gay marriage took at the ballot 0:52:37.040 --> 0:52:40.960 box and four, there was a real there was a 0:52:41.000 --> 0:52:45.359 divide inside HRC among some of its big donors. Hey, 0:52:45.400 --> 0:52:48.480 should we sort of hold back on marriage and instead 0:52:48.560 --> 0:52:53.560 focus on gay rights protections, you know in the workplace, 0:52:54.400 --> 0:52:57.560 civil unions. Let's go down that road. People seem to 0:52:57.560 --> 0:53:00.719 be good with that. Like, there was a real and 0:53:00.760 --> 0:53:04.600 it was a fifty one proposition about how much to 0:53:05.120 --> 0:53:07.919 go into the no fight for same sex marriage now 0:53:08.000 --> 0:53:10.839 versus fight for same sex marriage later, right, And that 0:53:11.040 --> 0:53:14.320 was a divide, by the way, similar divide on trans 0:53:14.320 --> 0:53:17.840 issues inside HRC, though I see that they've they've moved 0:53:17.840 --> 0:53:19.040 past that debate a little bit. 0:53:19.719 --> 0:53:22.839 They have all you can still walk past HRC headquarters 0:53:22.840 --> 0:53:25.080 in in DC, and it has they has the big 0:53:25.120 --> 0:53:28.280 signs that are that are that are about trans rights, 0:53:28.280 --> 0:53:30.879 et cetera. But just I'm slowly walking through the way 0:53:30.880 --> 0:53:33.439 that they felt this was Democrats had it was Trench 0:53:33.480 --> 0:53:36.759 Warford Democrats and the groups there were defeats and one 0:53:36.800 --> 0:53:39.160 they have asked conservatives who on the trans issue, the 0:53:39.200 --> 0:53:42.560 ones who believe that they are winning this they can 0:53:42.640 --> 0:53:45.960 went on everywhere is why why didn't you guys try 0:53:46.000 --> 0:53:50.960 to put on the ballot in some states? Hey, this 0:53:51.080 --> 0:53:54.880 state now defines genders as two sexiest man in female. 0:53:54.920 --> 0:53:58.160 Well that's a great question. Why has it that happened? Well, 0:53:58.200 --> 0:54:01.520 the one thing is that they they think just even 0:54:01.960 --> 0:54:03.520 some of them are too younger. Remember two thousand and 0:54:03.560 --> 0:54:06.400 four when it wouldn't be a perish a referenda. But 0:54:06.440 --> 0:54:10.160 they they assumed they'd be they'd be outspent on these. 0:54:10.239 --> 0:54:12.239 They assumed they would not win as many as they did. 0:54:12.400 --> 0:54:15.480 They also had trouble convincing the party that it mattered. 0:54:15.520 --> 0:54:18.160 And the story of the right on this up to 0:54:18.200 --> 0:54:23.560 twenty twenty was that their donors didn't understand why this 0:54:23.680 --> 0:54:26.200 was such a big deal. The Caitlyn Jenner coming out 0:54:26.239 --> 0:54:30.880 in twenty fifteen in the context of a twenty sixteen 0:54:30.960 --> 0:54:33.160 Republican race. You can find Republican at the time like 0:54:33.239 --> 0:54:35.959 Rick Santorum saying, well, Kaitlyn Jenner says, she's a woman, 0:54:36.000 --> 0:54:38.759 She's a woman. Sure they didn't understand. They end their 0:54:38.760 --> 0:54:41.600 family was also Republican. There was a weird part of that. 0:54:42.080 --> 0:54:44.680 You wonder if she had been a high profile Democrat. 0:54:44.719 --> 0:54:48.080 If the conversation would have been the same, just maybe maybe, 0:54:48.080 --> 0:54:51.040 but just the way it was seen as a libertarian issue, 0:54:51.040 --> 0:54:53.080 It's like, why do you want the republic the Republican 0:54:53.120 --> 0:54:57.160 party that just got killed on gay marriage after and 0:54:57.160 --> 0:54:58.640 you can't even talk anymore, why do he wants to 0:54:58.680 --> 0:55:03.000 get involved in this? Regrets had the same set of facts, Well, 0:55:01.840 --> 0:55:05.040 we may gain marriage, move so slowly that now we're 0:55:05.080 --> 0:55:07.239 kind of embarrassed that we moved so slowly. There was 0:55:07.280 --> 0:55:10.080 a very brief news cycle in twenty fifteen because Hillary 0:55:10.120 --> 0:55:12.760 Clinton had been Secretary of State and wasn't taking political positions. 0:55:13.080 --> 0:55:15.279 How come she had endoorse gay marriage yet and the 0:55:15.320 --> 0:55:17.960 Trump campaign had some fun with Donald Trump endorse gay 0:55:18.000 --> 0:55:23.319 marriage before Ellary Clinton did so. The trans issues, the 0:55:23.440 --> 0:55:26.880 history quite complicated. I recommend reading Susan Striker's book on 0:55:27.080 --> 0:55:30.640 transgender history to catch up on this stuff. They are 0:55:30.680 --> 0:55:33.160 different movements that are interlocking. They're there and they fight, 0:55:33.600 --> 0:55:36.799 they they've boon different things. But the way that this 0:55:36.880 --> 0:55:40.320 has gotten the bomb Minstration of biderministration said well, no, 0:55:40.440 --> 0:55:42.320 these are these are human rights. Weren't forcing them, and 0:55:42.360 --> 0:55:45.720 we're changing the way that the code the government's code 0:55:45.920 --> 0:55:49.640 talks about gender. We are changing the way that healthcare 0:55:49.680 --> 0:55:53.560 plans cover gender medicine. We're doing that. There's not going 0:55:53.600 --> 0:55:55.239 to be a debate, there's not going to be referendums 0:55:55.239 --> 0:55:56.680 in the States, it's not going to all to take forever. 0:55:56.719 --> 0:55:59.080 We're just doing it because this is right. And then 0:55:59.120 --> 0:56:03.120 the backlash later. I mean, so it's imagine if because 0:56:03.440 --> 0:56:06.719 what happened with game marriage is sometimes a court would 0:56:06.760 --> 0:56:09.240 legalize it and there'd be a voter backlash. But imagine 0:56:09.239 --> 0:56:13.879 if instead Bill Clinton in nineteen ninety nine says change 0:56:13.880 --> 0:56:15.919 the legal code. Marriage now means whatever, No, he didn't, 0:56:15.960 --> 0:56:19.200 he did, Delma. And so the way the trans rights 0:56:19.200 --> 0:56:23.839 have played out politically, I think has been again traumatized 0:56:23.880 --> 0:56:26.839 to people who are who are progressive, who believe in this, 0:56:26.880 --> 0:56:29.879 to trans people, because the recent experience is that human 0:56:29.960 --> 0:56:35.920 rights moves in one direction, and that actually was the 0:56:36.880 --> 0:56:40.319 trench forefare of gay marriage was not repeated for trans rights, 0:56:40.360 --> 0:56:45.640 it was handled differently. Your party really fully understood the implications. 0:56:46.000 --> 0:56:48.320 Now they've got a good understanding implications. There are people 0:56:48.320 --> 0:56:51.440 trying to find a way through. But instand what you're 0:56:51.480 --> 0:56:54.960 seeing is because it wasn't just America, UK, European countries 0:56:54.960 --> 0:56:57.120 still have the same thing. All right. We have a 0:56:57.120 --> 0:57:00.279 new understanding of what gender is. It's enforced in the code. 0:57:01.239 --> 0:57:06.200 And the backlash came after that, This progressive dealing with 0:57:06.239 --> 0:57:09.040 a with a right wing backlash for a lot because 0:57:09.360 --> 0:57:11.839 people are cycling through the political process just because of 0:57:11.920 --> 0:57:14.799 mortality who don't remember things. I find this in the report. 0:57:14.880 --> 0:57:17.600 People who do not remember Barack Obama being elected. Certainly 0:57:17.600 --> 0:57:20.760 they don't remember purely when gay marriage was unpopular. There 0:57:20.760 --> 0:57:23.320 are a lot of people in political activism, in democratic 0:57:23.320 --> 0:57:26.840 powery politics, and their story is, look, the country is 0:57:26.880 --> 0:57:31.680 becoming more progressive. Why would you ever question rights for 0:57:31.720 --> 0:57:33.640 all people, something that's good for all people. Why would 0:57:33.680 --> 0:57:36.240 you ever do that? How could the Democrats sell people 0:57:36.280 --> 0:57:40.080 out by saying maybe it's going too fast? Republicans say, 0:57:40.400 --> 0:57:42.560 I think they're snake bit by gay marriage, and now 0:57:42.800 --> 0:57:44.680 the degree they moved from we're not sure if we 0:57:44.680 --> 0:57:46.920 should run on this issue too. We're going to attack 0:57:46.960 --> 0:57:49.760 every Democrat over it. Again. I think seems eu briistic 0:57:49.800 --> 0:57:52.640 because in those spaces I'm talking about, the democratic donor 0:57:52.680 --> 0:57:56.640 space was one thing they're saying is courts might take 0:57:56.680 --> 0:57:59.520 care of this, and that's like a very if you 0:57:59.520 --> 0:58:01.240 know what you mean by that, your life, right, another 0:58:01.280 --> 0:58:02.760 thing of your life. That's a little hard to hear, 0:58:02.920 --> 0:58:05.400 the saying, look, scremedi happened, there's going to be another. 0:58:05.440 --> 0:58:07.160 There are there any more cases before a six to 0:58:07.200 --> 0:58:09.440 three Supreme Court. The next time the Democrats is going 0:58:09.480 --> 0:58:12.560 to run for office, a Republicans say this is hey, 0:58:12.680 --> 0:58:15.120 they're going to do this, They'll say no, it's all illegal. 0:58:15.320 --> 0:58:17.360 That's terrible to hear. If you're progressive, that's like saying, 0:58:17.400 --> 0:58:19.560 well the ports and handle every wade. Stop running on 0:58:19.560 --> 0:58:22.680 abortion in Texas. It's over you. Just what's your what's 0:58:22.720 --> 0:58:25.040 your frame of ressent reference as a progressive or if 0:58:25.120 --> 0:58:27.160 looks that one, we're never going to get it back. 0:58:36.520 --> 0:58:38.280 If you have to solve one, if you have to 0:58:38.360 --> 0:58:41.160 sort of run against the party on, you have to 0:58:41.160 --> 0:58:42.840 pick one of those two issues to run against the 0:58:42.840 --> 0:58:47.080 party on. Hard My sense is immigration's the one that 0:58:47.200 --> 0:58:50.600 voters care about more. Yes, a trans issue is sort 0:58:50.600 --> 0:58:54.600 of like an exclamation point, and they're in favor of 0:58:55.000 --> 0:58:58.600 or and they're this right like, and you can weather 0:58:58.720 --> 0:59:01.520 that if that's your only merit, you can say, look, 0:59:01.600 --> 0:59:04.919 how pathetic my opponent is being he's obsessed with looking 0:59:05.040 --> 0:59:08.000 under people's skirts. If that is your only quote unquote 0:59:08.080 --> 0:59:12.600 violation to the cultural center right, I don't think you 0:59:12.720 --> 0:59:15.920 could be tough on trans folks and soft on immigration 0:59:15.960 --> 0:59:18.000 and think that's going to solve your problems. If you're 0:59:18.000 --> 0:59:20.640 going to pick one of these cultural hot button issues 0:59:20.680 --> 0:59:23.440 to run against the party on. It feels like immigration 0:59:23.640 --> 0:59:27.440 is the probably the smarter play if you're just playing. 0:59:27.160 --> 0:59:34.440 Tactical and it. I agree with that. I also, for 0:59:34.480 --> 0:59:35.720 all the reason we just talked about it, for the 0:59:35.720 --> 0:59:39.120 Waite courts are going to handle it. It's also, like 0:59:39.160 --> 0:59:43.560 I was saying, within the party and the polyglot of 0:59:43.680 --> 0:59:47.080 influences it has right now, if you come out and say, look, 0:59:47.120 --> 0:59:49.960 I'm for some deep I'm for deporting people who committed 0:59:49.960 --> 0:59:52.240 a crime, you don't get the same backlash as you 0:59:52.280 --> 0:59:57.120 do if you say I mean I was a I 0:59:57.120 --> 0:59:59.240 mean basher, Andy basher. Another thing I asked him was 0:59:59.240 --> 1:00:03.880 about the Trump's orders on gender medicine for miners, and 1:00:03.920 --> 1:00:06.400 he said, well, I'm against surgeries on minors, and I 1:00:06.440 --> 1:00:09.640 always had it been, and I guess that didn't get 1:00:09.680 --> 1:00:13.960 reaction anymore. But it's the what also affects more people's lives. 1:00:14.200 --> 1:00:15.720 I think this is this is this is going. That's 1:00:15.760 --> 1:00:19.360 exactly right. It's a part of it, yeah, versus you know, 1:00:19.440 --> 1:00:23.600 thirty percent of the country. But I I I I vote. Sorry, 1:00:23.800 --> 1:00:25.600 you're the host, and I keep, I keep, I keep. No, 1:00:25.600 --> 1:00:27.720 no, no no, I think this is a no no no. 1:00:27.760 --> 1:00:30.560 We spent a good chuck here. That was the big picture. 1:00:31.400 --> 1:00:34.280 You know, Democrats like need to figure out what they 1:00:34.280 --> 1:00:36.160 believe and talk about it, as opposed to say, and 1:00:36.200 --> 1:00:38.240 where we believe is moving this way and I'll get 1:00:38.280 --> 1:00:39.920 right with history. They just need to say, why do 1:00:39.960 --> 1:00:40.520 I believe this? 1:00:40.600 --> 1:00:42.840 Yeah, let's talk about where we're going to see some 1:00:42.880 --> 1:00:45.080 of these fights play out, right, like at the ballot 1:00:45.120 --> 1:00:49.480 box in some of these primaries. Look, we can have 1:00:49.480 --> 1:00:50.720 a mom Donnie conversation. 1:00:51.160 --> 1:00:52.720 I'm I'm of. 1:00:54.240 --> 1:00:56.480 You know, I think that there is a long history 1:00:56.720 --> 1:01:02.000 of urban voters willing to flirt. Was so because there's 1:01:02.040 --> 1:01:05.760 a demand for cities to for there always is more 1:01:05.800 --> 1:01:08.880 of an expectation and a demand for city services than 1:01:08.920 --> 1:01:11.080 there is for state or federal right that there is 1:01:11.160 --> 1:01:13.600 this sort of so like, you know, the fact is, 1:01:13.640 --> 1:01:16.560 when have we elected socialists in this country. Most of 1:01:16.600 --> 1:01:19.200 the elections have taken place in mayor's races, whether it's 1:01:19.200 --> 1:01:21.320 the mayor of Burlington, the mayor of Milwaukee. We may 1:01:21.320 --> 1:01:23.400 have a mayor of Minneapolis, and you know, the mayor 1:01:23.440 --> 1:01:27.480 of New York City. So I am skeptical that's this 1:01:27.640 --> 1:01:31.880 transferable into the rest of the party. And I expect 1:01:31.880 --> 1:01:35.480 most of the party to feel comfortable distancing themselves from 1:01:35.480 --> 1:01:38.680 mom Donnie, you know, in some sort of Oh, I 1:01:38.800 --> 1:01:40.920 like him, he's a good campaigner, but that's not what 1:01:40.960 --> 1:01:44.600 I'm for or hostile, but it will be some form 1:01:44.640 --> 1:01:46.640 of that. You concur with that, or do you think 1:01:46.680 --> 1:01:48.640 they could it could have more legs. 1:01:49.480 --> 1:01:52.960 I I concur I think Republicans are very quick to 1:01:53.000 --> 1:01:55.320 say we're going to tie every Democrat to mom Donnie. 1:01:55.400 --> 1:01:58.600 But this rang hollow because Eric Adams was supposed to 1:01:58.600 --> 1:02:03.240 be the savior of Democrats brand in cities and Republicans 1:02:03.400 --> 1:02:05.880 swept all these New York suburban seats or anything against 1:02:05.920 --> 1:02:11.160 Eric Adams anyway, So that's also I try to play 1:02:11.200 --> 1:02:14.360 it straight. And if everyone agrees that Democrats need to 1:02:14.440 --> 1:02:16.840 run for something, not against something, I'm not convinced that 1:02:16.960 --> 1:02:20.080 a midterm message for the incumbent party that runs everything 1:02:20.120 --> 1:02:21.640 will be Hey, look at that guy in New York. 1:02:22.880 --> 1:02:25.000 Now I talked to I've known mam Day for a while. 1:02:25.000 --> 1:02:26.600 I talked to him in the race for mayor, but 1:02:26.680 --> 1:02:28.360 I met him when he was running for State Senate 1:02:29.240 --> 1:02:31.800 in New York. The rise of DSA New York, the 1:02:31.840 --> 1:02:34.800 story of socialists until Mamdani over the last couple of 1:02:34.840 --> 1:02:36.959 years that they were losing brown. They were losing ground 1:02:37.000 --> 1:02:39.880 votes for the reasons that a lot of left wing 1:02:40.240 --> 1:02:43.840 or groups lose round infighting and people quit and people 1:02:43.920 --> 1:02:46.920 lob accusations at each other. But also they were getting 1:02:46.960 --> 1:02:49.320 blamed for a lot of policies that they advanced, like 1:02:49.720 --> 1:02:55.120 bail reform, more of the criminal policies, socialist criminal justice. Yes, 1:02:55.480 --> 1:02:58.520 but socials were not getting dinged for their economic ideas. 1:02:58.520 --> 1:03:02.040 They were getting hurt for the other ideas about remaking 1:03:02.280 --> 1:03:08.480 remaking society. Prison abolition, police abolition, defunding police is downstream 1:03:08.480 --> 1:03:11.720 from that. And Mam Donnie didn't run on that. Remind 1:03:11.760 --> 1:03:15.760 ran on affordability. So I feel the one way I 1:03:15.840 --> 1:03:18.000 view what he did is more he's like the Howard 1:03:18.080 --> 1:03:21.800 Jarvis of of a browsing a portability Howard Jarvis, you know, 1:03:21.840 --> 1:03:25.760 passes this doll initiative in California in the seventies on 1:03:25.880 --> 1:03:29.320 tax limitation that free defines the state, but Democrats don't 1:03:29.320 --> 1:03:32.160 see Prop thirteen. But Democrats don't see it coming because 1:03:32.200 --> 1:03:35.360 they they thought they were being responsible stewards of this 1:03:35.840 --> 1:03:38.360 exparis money and saving up for a big surplus and 1:03:38.360 --> 1:03:42.160 not refunding people's money with taxes. And in New York 1:03:42.200 --> 1:03:43.840 there was a lot of denial like, well, I mean, yeah, 1:03:43.880 --> 1:03:45.600 the housing thing is slow, but we need to work 1:03:45.640 --> 1:03:48.200 through these groups and we're going to build this housing. 1:03:48.240 --> 1:03:51.280 But this donor's opposed to it, and Mam Donnie. There's 1:03:51.320 --> 1:03:54.680 been this fight for who owns this agenda between more 1:03:54.800 --> 1:03:58.680 moderate Democrats and Progresses because they do want to be 1:03:58.760 --> 1:04:02.200 the party of affordability. It just needs different stuff in 1:04:02.200 --> 1:04:05.800 different places. I mean, you mentioned Minneapolis and housing affordability 1:04:05.840 --> 1:04:07.520 is less of an issue in Minneapolis because it's not 1:04:07.560 --> 1:04:10.840 as expensive. It's society spent to lived there. New York 1:04:10.880 --> 1:04:14.360 has been New York Los Angeles. I mean you can 1:04:14.440 --> 1:04:18.400 really start that there. DC area are just if you're 1:04:18.400 --> 1:04:20.400 in when you're done with this podcast, go look up 1:04:20.480 --> 1:04:23.080 Zillo and look up what it costs to have a 1:04:23.080 --> 1:04:26.280 big family home in those places, You're not going to 1:04:26.360 --> 1:04:29.960 have the same issues outside of urban areas. So he 1:04:30.120 --> 1:04:32.800 is he is for urban democrats, like a Howard Jermans 1:04:32.800 --> 1:04:36.800 figures saying, look, if you don't deal with this, voters 1:04:36.840 --> 1:04:38.840 are going to react and make you deal with it. 1:04:38.880 --> 1:04:44.000 And I look more housing etctera, go ahead. My test 1:04:44.040 --> 1:04:48.280 on Mom Donnie is Mikey Cheryl. If somehow she loses, 1:04:48.480 --> 1:04:51.320 I think there will be this idea that there's a 1:04:51.360 --> 1:04:54.600 Mom Donnie effect and that hurt her in the Northern 1:04:54.720 --> 1:04:58.000 Jersey suburbs, right, Like, that's the scenario. I had an 1:04:58.040 --> 1:05:00.280 interview with Rama Manuel a couple of weeks ago, and 1:05:00.320 --> 1:05:04.440 that was his paranoia that does Mom Donnie become a problem? 1:05:04.480 --> 1:05:04.640 You know? 1:05:04.720 --> 1:05:08.280 Can the can Chitdarelli and New Jersey weaponized Mom Donnie 1:05:08.720 --> 1:05:12.560 and weaponize New York City essentially against Mikey Chryl and 1:05:12.920 --> 1:05:17.200 make her own that a little bit. I'll watch and see, right, 1:05:17.360 --> 1:05:20.880 I don't you know, we'll find out. I think I'm 1:05:20.920 --> 1:05:22.920 fascinated with New Jersey governor because I think it's the 1:05:22.920 --> 1:05:25.160 only I don't think Virginia is going to be because 1:05:25.200 --> 1:05:27.640 of the federal worker issue really more than anything else, 1:05:28.000 --> 1:05:30.880 is such a such a problem for Republicans. You know, 1:05:30.920 --> 1:05:34.200 they can complain all they want around the lieutenant governor's campaign. Please, 1:05:34.440 --> 1:05:37.200 it's Donald Trump and the land Doge that is the 1:05:38.240 --> 1:05:41.080 that is going to put Abigail Spamberger in Richmond. 1:05:41.080 --> 1:05:41.360 There. 1:05:42.880 --> 1:05:45.760 So let's move to twenty sixteen, and if you had 1:05:45.760 --> 1:05:49.560 a I'm going to answer it first. And I'm curious 1:05:49.560 --> 1:05:52.000 if there's any other state that you I think the 1:05:52.000 --> 1:05:55.360 most interesting state to understand where the country is headed, 1:05:55.560 --> 1:05:58.880 where the Democratic Party is headed, is the state of Michigan. 1:05:59.640 --> 1:06:02.480 You have a Democratic primary and Senate that is going 1:06:02.520 --> 1:06:07.000 to pit sort of establishment DC versus sort of younger 1:06:07.560 --> 1:06:12.080 outsider state senator right and Molly McMorrow versus Haley Stevens. 1:06:12.680 --> 1:06:14.560 And then you have the three way race for governor, 1:06:16.160 --> 1:06:20.120 which is going to test sort of where is the middle? 1:06:20.720 --> 1:06:23.520 You know, can you know what is what. 1:06:23.520 --> 1:06:27.440 Is mainstream left versus the center versus Frankly John James 1:06:27.440 --> 1:06:28.200 being mainstream right. 1:06:28.240 --> 1:06:32.000 I mean I find it, you know, and whether there is. 1:06:31.960 --> 1:06:36.720 A a centrist or a sort of non major party 1:06:36.800 --> 1:06:40.440 movement that can actually get traction right beyond that. So 1:06:40.920 --> 1:06:43.600 I look at the state of Michigan and it both 1:06:43.600 --> 1:06:45.400 the governor's race and the Senate race, and I just 1:06:45.400 --> 1:06:48.480 see it as having all of the national storylines. We're 1:06:48.480 --> 1:06:52.000 trying to figure out the future of the Democrats, what's 1:06:52.080 --> 1:06:54.920 going on with this sort of continued ten year rise 1:06:54.960 --> 1:06:58.560 of people not aligning with either party, particularly among voters 1:06:58.640 --> 1:07:01.280 under forty five, and that Michigan. 1:07:00.880 --> 1:07:01.400 Has it all. 1:07:04.360 --> 1:07:07.240 I know you coulccur about Michigan being important. Is it 1:07:07.320 --> 1:07:09.640 the be all end all? Do you see it that 1:07:09.720 --> 1:07:11.960 same way? Is there other states that you would put 1:07:11.960 --> 1:07:14.360 in that category for the for twenty twenty six? 1:07:14.400 --> 1:07:15.320 It's sort of being. 1:07:17.120 --> 1:07:22.160 Nearly the most intriguing and most important potential ways to 1:07:22.320 --> 1:07:26.320 sort of decipher what might happen in twenty eight. 1:07:26.920 --> 1:07:29.600 No, I like that as the focal point. I would 1:07:29.680 --> 1:07:32.560 not There is not any sort of I would say 1:07:32.720 --> 1:07:37.280 Nevada is going to be interesting because as a test 1:07:37.320 --> 1:07:39.800 of how Fluky and Texas, Texas and Babiel pinterting is 1:07:39.800 --> 1:07:42.680 the text of whether to move towards Trump by Latino 1:07:42.760 --> 1:07:45.400 voters with situational for twenty twenty four or whether it 1:07:45.480 --> 1:07:48.600 represents something long term and just that's not as much 1:07:48.600 --> 1:07:51.960 of a factor in Michigan. It's both of them. I'm 1:07:51.960 --> 1:07:53.400 why have you said that too? Because I think I 1:07:53.480 --> 1:07:55.800 unless something changes, I'm going to Michigan on Saturday. So 1:07:55.880 --> 1:07:59.120 I'm glad it's important, But I mean it's got era. 1:07:59.200 --> 1:08:01.400 I mean I've been there already myself, and it's like 1:08:01.840 --> 1:08:05.280 I I every time, I'm like, man, boy, this is 1:08:05.320 --> 1:08:06.640 where I'd open a bureau here. 1:08:06.680 --> 1:08:08.520 If I were the hotline, you know, type of thing 1:08:09.720 --> 1:08:12.520 that important, I'd ben she theres a third candidate in 1:08:12.520 --> 1:08:14.479 the in the the four candidates in the Senate race, 1:08:14.920 --> 1:08:17.360 Abdul Elsi ed who Bernie Sanders and Doris day One. 1:08:17.760 --> 1:08:20.360 That's right, I forgot about it, yeah, yes, And and 1:08:20.479 --> 1:08:23.200 Joe Tate, the former Speaker of the of the State House, 1:08:23.240 --> 1:08:27.040 who's interesting. He's also kind of as a storytelling figure, 1:08:27.120 --> 1:08:29.599 sort of interesting because he was the first black Democrats 1:08:29.600 --> 1:08:32.559 speaker of the State House in Michigan, and Michigan Democrats 1:08:32.600 --> 1:08:36.960 finally won this trifecta in twenty a twenty two, and 1:08:37.000 --> 1:08:39.120 then they didn't do as much as other Democrats did 1:08:39.120 --> 1:08:41.840 with their trifecta. And there's not real metrics, not much 1:08:41.840 --> 1:08:45.040 excitement around Joe Tate because where was the agenda. Where 1:08:45.080 --> 1:08:47.840 was the great Whitmer agenda that she could compare to 1:08:47.880 --> 1:08:52.479 what Tim Walls did in Minnesota or what Kathie Hochel 1:08:52.479 --> 1:08:56.000 did in New York, et cetera. Uh. And so Tate 1:08:56.080 --> 1:08:59.080 has not gotten much much momentum. Abdul has gotten some 1:08:59.120 --> 1:09:02.160 of that progressive in christ And yes more is running 1:09:02.200 --> 1:09:04.920 more as an anti I agree with you because the 1:09:04.920 --> 1:09:07.600 stories they're all telling are very interesting. The reason that 1:09:08.120 --> 1:09:11.640 the more of people's theory of the case is he 1:09:12.000 --> 1:09:16.919 is at the leading edge of the suburban state Michigan 1:09:17.400 --> 1:09:22.280 revival from the suburbs of Detroit. The subject froid big place. Uh. 1:09:22.320 --> 1:09:25.559 And she's been doing this work in Michigan, not in 1:09:25.640 --> 1:09:29.000 d C. Their theory is just being connected to DC 1:09:29.120 --> 1:09:32.240 and Democrats flopping around failing. Uh is not going to 1:09:32.280 --> 1:09:35.479 be a winner for Haley Stevens the Stephens. The Stephens 1:09:35.479 --> 1:09:38.720 theory is more that she gets things done, she can 1:09:38.760 --> 1:09:41.639 work with both parties. Is that still the wait get ahead? Yeah, 1:09:41.720 --> 1:09:44.120 that she's Ferry Peters or she's a lista slock into 1:09:44.160 --> 1:09:46.920 an extent and I'll do the saed l sa Ed 1:09:47.000 --> 1:09:51.120 theory is Democrats were not inspiring enough. They're not straightforward 1:09:51.160 --> 1:09:53.679 enough of what they believe, say what they think, call 1:09:53.720 --> 1:09:56.439 out for I mean day waned how I interviewed him 1:09:56.479 --> 1:10:00.000 and he calls what happening, what's happening Israel and Gaza genocide? 1:10:00.479 --> 1:10:04.160 Do that his theory, and that's that's a very powerful 1:10:04.200 --> 1:10:08.160 strain of progressive thinking. The note for true progressives have 1:10:08.240 --> 1:10:12.240 not been tried. They the democratic establishment never let Bernie 1:10:12.240 --> 1:10:14.360 get the nominations, so we've never got to see out 1:10:14.560 --> 1:10:16.639 put him progressive in there, and you're gonna wake up 1:10:17.120 --> 1:10:21.479 correct Bernie's was Bernie won Michigan primaries twice, right, No, 1:10:21.640 --> 1:10:23.280 he won the first one and he got he got 1:10:23.280 --> 1:10:24.960 smoked in pointy twenty uh. 1:10:25.120 --> 1:10:27.639 Which twenty he did not win. Because that's because Michigan 1:10:27.680 --> 1:10:30.280 has in the past. Jesse Jackson won the Michigan primary 1:10:30.520 --> 1:10:32.920 back in the day. There's always been this interesting, weird 1:10:33.720 --> 1:10:36.240 progressive and part of it is there's no party registration. 1:10:36.680 --> 1:10:39.360 I think you can go on either side, so you 1:10:39.439 --> 1:10:42.679 can sort of momentum candidates can grab, can can pull 1:10:42.760 --> 1:10:44.600 up sets in Michigan in ways that. 1:10:45.280 --> 1:10:49.360 Yeah, this is one of my favorite unkillables the party 1:10:49.400 --> 1:10:53.480 is because because Bernie never never got the nomination. Uh, 1:10:53.680 --> 1:10:56.840 who was the Bernie voter and how how much could 1:10:56.840 --> 1:10:58.880 he have been a Bernie instead of a Trump voter? 1:10:59.360 --> 1:11:01.240 And they never got a chance to prove it. They 1:11:01.280 --> 1:11:03.960 never will, But in Michigan is one of those places. 1:11:04.120 --> 1:11:07.000 New Hampshire primary was the first place where this started 1:11:07.000 --> 1:11:10.439 to pop up. Because Bernie kills Hillary in the New 1:11:10.439 --> 1:11:13.280 Hampshire biggest landslide and they through the primary. He runs 1:11:13.280 --> 1:11:15.760 four years later, he's better known. He does much worse. 1:11:15.800 --> 1:11:18.479 He wins the primary, but barely because it turns out 1:11:18.479 --> 1:11:19.960 a lot of his voters just like, no, I'm an 1:11:19.960 --> 1:11:22.439 independent and I hate Hillary. Same thing happened to Michigan. 1:11:22.520 --> 1:11:25.400 He Biden wins every county in the state because a 1:11:25.400 --> 1:11:28.160 lot of the Bernie voters just they hated Hillary. How 1:11:28.160 --> 1:11:30.400 many of them would have come out for Bernie had 1:11:30.439 --> 1:11:33.759 he been the nominee. How many of the voted for Trump? 1:11:34.040 --> 1:11:35.640 We don't know. And I think it's very fair to 1:11:35.640 --> 1:11:38.040 progressives to say that's right, you never have to test 1:11:38.280 --> 1:11:42.720 that particular campaign. And the abdulah l said theory is, 1:11:42.800 --> 1:11:44.720 I'll do it. I'm going to test this campaign. I'm 1:11:44.760 --> 1:11:48.720 going to run as a Bernie populist in Michigan. And 1:11:48.760 --> 1:11:51.000 the mcmorro theory is more I'm going to run as 1:11:51.000 --> 1:11:54.719 the Buddha Judge generational change outsider candidate, and the Stevens 1:11:54.720 --> 1:11:57.920 Camp theory is look, Gary Peters won, I can win 1:11:59.200 --> 1:12:03.839 and so yeah, very different theories of how how the party, 1:12:03.960 --> 1:12:07.040 how the party works. And I needed to spend time 1:12:07.040 --> 1:12:09.160 out with them because the thing in common is they're 1:12:09.160 --> 1:12:13.639 really not attracting new people. They're not finding those voters 1:12:13.680 --> 1:12:17.639 who got disaffected by Democrats in the in the last 1:12:17.640 --> 1:12:20.160 few years and now have found somebody inspiring. And I 1:12:20.200 --> 1:12:23.000 think that does come down to policy. And I think 1:12:23.000 --> 1:12:25.160 it was a non more immigration than anything else, because 1:12:25.160 --> 1:12:28.880 that's one thing you hear a lot talking to the 1:12:28.960 --> 1:12:32.519 non white voters who were Democrats and voted for Obama 1:12:32.560 --> 1:12:34.720 and then voted for Trump. A thing that comes up 1:12:34.880 --> 1:12:37.559 very frequently is I work for what I have. And 1:12:37.600 --> 1:12:39.599 then the Democrats gave free hotels to all the elie 1:12:39.680 --> 1:12:43.360 immigrants boom once. How much did it hurt the party 1:12:43.360 --> 1:12:45.880 that they were seeing as the party not just of 1:12:45.920 --> 1:12:49.599 not giving things, not giving things away to people, Because 1:12:49.600 --> 1:12:51.040 this was the we're trying to the eighties, this is 1:12:51.080 --> 1:12:52.960 the crisis the eighties. The Democrats of the party of 1:12:53.040 --> 1:12:56.040 handing out welfare and taking the economy. How much of 1:12:56.080 --> 1:12:56.800 this and it's over? 1:12:58.840 --> 1:13:02.280 You know, the welfare queen image of the eighties became 1:13:02.360 --> 1:13:06.200 the migrant free migrant hotel guys in New York in yeah, 1:13:06.280 --> 1:13:07.240 twenty two. 1:13:07.160 --> 1:13:09.400 And how much is it? I think that's less of 1:13:09.439 --> 1:13:11.640 a factor in Michigan. But I did hear some of 1:13:11.680 --> 1:13:14.200 that in the Detroit area, is it? Yeah? I look 1:13:14.240 --> 1:13:15.840 for the Democrats, but they never do anything for us. 1:13:15.880 --> 1:13:17.679 It seems like all they care about is a legal immigrant. 1:13:18.160 --> 1:13:21.080 What's let's if Mike Duggan wins the governorship, what does 1:13:21.160 --> 1:13:27.240 that mean? Uh? Yeah, that would be so that would 1:13:27.360 --> 1:13:30.120 I think be a victory for he will have beaten 1:13:30.120 --> 1:13:36.960 the Democratic Republican candidates most very good, I mean very good. One. 1:13:36.960 --> 1:13:39.160 This is not a case usually when the third party 1:13:39.200 --> 1:13:43.840 candidate has a shot, there's a flawed nominee. But there's 1:13:43.840 --> 1:13:47.640 no obvious flaw in Joscelyn Benson among Democrats. There's no 1:13:47.720 --> 1:13:51.000 obvious flaw among John James. If anything, both of them, 1:13:51.360 --> 1:13:54.080 you know, Benson feels like a rightful heir to Whitmer, 1:13:54.160 --> 1:13:57.680 and John James feels like the new Republican Party that 1:13:57.680 --> 1:14:00.360 they're trying to sell, right, you know. And and here 1:14:00.360 --> 1:14:04.200 comes Mike Duggan, sort of rumpily rumpty, old white guy 1:14:04.240 --> 1:14:09.240 mayor of Detroit, right and sort of I'm going to 1:14:09.320 --> 1:14:11.360 turn your street lights on and fill your potholes kind 1:14:11.400 --> 1:14:15.120 of guy, sort of technocraty, right, sort of Bloomberg without 1:14:15.120 --> 1:14:19.639 the nice suits. And that's I don't know if that's 1:14:19.680 --> 1:14:22.120 going to work outside of the Detroit metro area, which 1:14:22.160 --> 1:14:25.559 is my curiosity. He does really well in in his 1:14:25.640 --> 1:14:28.519 media market. He's much less known obviously in the rest 1:14:28.560 --> 1:14:34.240 of the state. But that's my curiosity is if he wins, 1:14:34.320 --> 1:14:36.880 what does it mean and what does it mean for 1:14:36.960 --> 1:14:39.600 Democrats more so than it is for Republicans, because to me, 1:14:39.640 --> 1:14:42.000 this would be more of a of a statement against 1:14:42.000 --> 1:14:44.600 the against the Democrats than it would be because one 1:14:44.640 --> 1:14:47.360 would assume by the general Whitmer's out there trying to 1:14:47.720 --> 1:14:49.479 help Jocelyn Benson be the heir apparent. 1:14:50.640 --> 1:14:53.080 Yes, that is that is an under That's another reason 1:14:53.120 --> 1:14:57.320 Michigan's worth watching, because Democrats have their map and their 1:14:57.360 --> 1:15:00.400 theory of what's going to happen across the kind tree 1:15:00.439 --> 1:15:03.040 and where where does this fit in? Where where does 1:15:03.080 --> 1:15:06.720 where does it fit in that they because why do 1:15:07.200 --> 1:15:10.040 play it out like if they lose the Michigan UH 1:15:10.680 --> 1:15:13.800 governor's mansion to John James. He's an instantly favorite for 1:15:13.960 --> 1:15:17.759 vice president in twenty twenty eight president at some point 1:15:17.920 --> 1:15:20.800 without doing anything, maybe just being in that position. He 1:15:21.240 --> 1:15:23.519 ran for senidate twice and lost. With that theory, as 1:15:23.520 --> 1:15:25.880 soon as we going state a black elected Republican, he's 1:15:25.920 --> 1:15:27.000 he's going to be. He's going to be in the 1:15:27.000 --> 1:15:28.280 mets with later in Black Bowl. 1:15:28.320 --> 1:15:31.720 It's like Reuben Diego's wingst Hispanic Democrat. He's going to 1:15:31.720 --> 1:15:32.360 be on every lip. 1:15:33.120 --> 1:15:36.960 So there will intense Democratic interest in stopping that from happening. 1:15:37.520 --> 1:15:39.880 And the most recent experiency you have of this is 1:15:39.920 --> 1:15:42.240 Democrats is trying to shut down the third party candidate 1:15:42.240 --> 1:15:45.960 and deny them support, deny them consultants, et cetera. Dougan's 1:15:46.000 --> 1:15:49.519 been polling pretty well. And the thing that I think 1:15:49.520 --> 1:15:54.120 this havn't panicked yet because in polling Benson has still 1:15:54.160 --> 1:15:57.679 been winning. James is not a runaway favorite. He's never 1:15:57.760 --> 1:16:02.160 he's he's done, he's done, he's out performed when I 1:16:02.200 --> 1:16:05.720 think he ran it behind Trump and twenty twenty yes, 1:16:06.240 --> 1:16:10.040 hand Trump joined my eighteen, but the stated not on 1:16:10.080 --> 1:16:13.240 fire for John James and being a Republican House member 1:16:13.439 --> 1:16:16.000 is the least effective part of it. If I'm wrong, 1:16:16.160 --> 1:16:21.479 Republicans haven't been able to win statewide in Michigan fourteen 1:16:21.520 --> 1:16:25.200 I mean, right, Rick Schnyder, that's the last one. Yeah, yeah, 1:16:25.240 --> 1:16:29.439 I mean Democrats. The Democrats have swept everything except the 1:16:29.479 --> 1:16:34.960 presidential in twenty twenty sixteen, twenty sixteen, and twenty two. 1:16:35.280 --> 1:16:37.719 Those are big ifs, and those are big butt forst 1:16:37.760 --> 1:16:40.559 But really it's yeah, Democrats what they can't win any 1:16:40.560 --> 1:16:43.360 of the state wide races republicly in twenty twenty two, 1:16:43.520 --> 1:16:46.200 and Democrats win every state supreme court race every time. 1:16:46.520 --> 1:16:49.200 It's not Trump on the ballot Democrats. Sweet, you're right, Well, 1:16:49.200 --> 1:16:50.760 what's interesting about what's going on? 1:16:50.800 --> 1:16:53.400 And this was and I know we're getting up on 1:16:53.439 --> 1:16:57.200 an hour, and I'm very I'm very mindful of that, 1:16:57.200 --> 1:16:58.880 but I have a feeling we could go on for 1:16:58.920 --> 1:17:03.000 a long time. But it it is interesting about the difference. 1:17:03.040 --> 1:17:04.680 And this was another theme I wanted to hit with 1:17:04.720 --> 1:17:09.200 you on the midterms that I think what makes eighteen different, 1:17:09.240 --> 1:17:11.880 what makes twenty twenty six potentially different? Twenty eighteen is 1:17:11.920 --> 1:17:15.920 you have a more unified Republican Party. So Mitch McConnell 1:17:15.960 --> 1:17:18.240 was not interested in the same candidates that Donald Trump's 1:17:18.240 --> 1:17:21.160 team was interested in for Senate races. This time, John 1:17:21.200 --> 1:17:24.479 Thune and the Trump team are working in tandem and 1:17:24.520 --> 1:17:28.240 they're really The only disagreement going right now, arguably is Georgia. 1:17:28.320 --> 1:17:32.840 And we can have a conversation about Louisiana, but that's 1:17:32.840 --> 1:17:34.320 a separate issue in Texas. 1:17:34.360 --> 1:17:36.040 Those are sort of unique to the incumbents. 1:17:36.200 --> 1:17:39.960 But as far as the essentially and it's really Brian 1:17:40.080 --> 1:17:43.360 Kemp and the DC folks that are in disagreement about Georgia. 1:17:44.880 --> 1:17:48.040 Look at howt quickly everybody's shut down primaries in Michigan. 1:17:48.040 --> 1:17:50.559 Look howt quickly a primary was shut down in North Carolina, 1:17:50.720 --> 1:17:53.400 Look out quickly, But like this is a quickly a 1:17:53.400 --> 1:17:56.920 primary was shut down in Florida for that Senate seat. 1:17:57.280 --> 1:18:00.400 It does you know, I see a Republican Party for 1:18:00.439 --> 1:18:02.640 the first time in the Trump era rowing in the 1:18:02.680 --> 1:18:06.920 same direction as far as tactic tactics are concerned. 1:18:07.760 --> 1:18:12.839 That's worth something. And you know Democrats have overperformed thanks 1:18:12.960 --> 1:18:16.639 to Republican infighting. That may not be there in twenty 1:18:16.720 --> 1:18:21.840 six that's worth what five seats in the House? Is 1:18:21.840 --> 1:18:24.439 that worth a Senate seat or two? What's your sense 1:18:24.479 --> 1:18:28.360 on that it would have been in the past, because 1:18:28.439 --> 1:18:32.000 sometimes Trump just chooses worse candidates even despite the infighting 1:18:34.200 --> 1:18:36.719 and almost out of it. Really touched the hot stove, 1:18:36.760 --> 1:18:37.320 don't touch it. 1:18:37.400 --> 1:18:39.880 Yeah, I'm gonna I'm gonna sleep on the hot stove, 1:18:40.000 --> 1:18:40.719 forget touching. 1:18:40.800 --> 1:18:44.479 Yeah, But it's the point is getting people who have 1:18:44.560 --> 1:18:49.280 his vision. The jd Vance example in Ohio is definitive 1:18:49.360 --> 1:18:52.000 obviously because where he ended up is would they have 1:18:52.479 --> 1:18:55.960 Would Mike Dolan have won more easily than jd Vance 1:18:56.120 --> 1:18:59.040 in twenty twenty two? Yeah? Probably? What would that have 1:18:59.080 --> 1:19:02.639 gotten Trump though, just a a conservative senator who breaks 1:19:02.760 --> 1:19:06.719 them on Ukraine and doesn't in terriff like yeah, tariffs 1:19:06.720 --> 1:19:09.360 and no, he got somebody who already had a Rob Portman. 1:19:09.439 --> 1:19:12.200 He didn't want another Rob Portman. He got a zealous 1:19:12.240 --> 1:19:14.400 convert who's with him on everything. So is it worth? 1:19:14.439 --> 1:19:18.080 I mean Jim de Mint had this quote especially. I 1:19:18.120 --> 1:19:19.960 think this quote got blown up because this was the 1:19:20.280 --> 1:19:22.280 at the height of the Mitch McConnell Senate warriers where 1:19:22.280 --> 1:19:24.400 he wanted to discredit Jim Dimitt and the Conservatives. But 1:19:24.439 --> 1:19:28.040 the men said, I'd rather have you know, uh, He'd 1:19:28.080 --> 1:19:32.120 rather have a thirty yeah like man and senators than 1:19:32.160 --> 1:19:35.519 sixty WinPY Republicans. And they said that's a loser mentality. 1:19:35.680 --> 1:19:38.360 We don't want thirty. But it turns out, what's uh 1:19:38.720 --> 1:19:41.599 fifty three Republicans of whom two of them want want 1:19:41.600 --> 1:19:43.280 to break with Trump on some things, turns out to 1:19:43.280 --> 1:19:45.880 get you everything you want. You have, you can still 1:19:45.920 --> 1:19:48.320 get your Mitch McConnell gets to vote against nominees and 1:19:48.320 --> 1:19:50.200 give a statement about it. And Tom Tillis gets to 1:19:50.200 --> 1:19:51.679 do his interviews where he says he has a problem 1:19:51.720 --> 1:19:53.400 with Trump, but you mostly get what you want. It 1:19:53.439 --> 1:19:56.600 turns out, and this is the experience Democrats had. It 1:19:56.640 --> 1:20:00.639 turns out, I mean had had really had like Al Cunningham, 1:20:01.080 --> 1:20:03.160 she just kept in his pants in twenty twenty and 1:20:03.200 --> 1:20:07.240 they had one more Senate seat in twenty twenty one. 1:20:08.200 --> 1:20:11.320 Trillions more dollars could have passed, and not because it 1:20:11.320 --> 1:20:14.400 didn't require building party just May didn't need Roy. How 1:20:14.439 --> 1:20:16.639 bad it would do you need Joe Mansion's vote? Right? 1:20:16.720 --> 1:20:20.160 Yes, Donald Trump doesn't need Asa Murkowski's vote and doesn't 1:20:20.200 --> 1:20:23.280 need Susan Collins's vote, right, he has put himself at 1:20:23.280 --> 1:20:26.320 a position where the swing votes are now Mitch McConnell 1:20:26.360 --> 1:20:28.000 and Tom Tillis and Bill Cassidy. 1:20:28.360 --> 1:20:31.559 He'll take that of the week. Yeah, so he But 1:20:31.600 --> 1:20:34.200 will he involved lest because for really their osoff is 1:20:34.240 --> 1:20:36.640 it osof is the only Democrat running for election to 1:20:36.720 --> 1:20:40.160 the Senate in Michigan. He's been pretty successful. Man. He 1:20:40.200 --> 1:20:42.360 didn't people think he cleared he cleared the field for 1:20:42.400 --> 1:20:46.280 Mike Rodgers in twenty twenty two four. Rather he didn't quite. 1:20:46.280 --> 1:20:48.160 There's still were people who kept run against Bike Rodgers 1:20:48.240 --> 1:20:50.840 just didn't matter because Trump endorsed him. So he will 1:20:50.840 --> 1:20:53.200 get the candidates he wants. And it's really those kind 1:20:53.200 --> 1:20:56.840 of rogers, guys who genuflect to Trump and are willing 1:20:56.920 --> 1:20:59.360 to support whatever he does, even if they but they 1:20:59.360 --> 1:21:02.679 have some other appeal beyond Trump. That's the sweet spot. 1:21:02.840 --> 1:21:04.360 They're going to find some of those. They have not 1:21:04.360 --> 1:21:06.400 found one in North Carolina. They have not found one 1:21:06.760 --> 1:21:09.439 in Georgia. I don't know who they could and I'm 1:21:09.479 --> 1:21:11.479 not just going down the entire list of people in George. 1:21:11.520 --> 1:21:14.200 But they did get very fixated on Brian camp and 1:21:14.280 --> 1:21:16.760 once he decided not to do it. Can they find 1:21:16.800 --> 1:21:21.880 somebody whose brand is independent of independent of Trump, but 1:21:21.920 --> 1:21:25.880 also endorse by Trump. They don't have somebody, obviously, And I. 1:21:25.800 --> 1:21:28.200 Am surprised, and I think Brian Kemp is too, that 1:21:28.200 --> 1:21:30.400 the Trump folks are not as interested in Derek Dooley. 1:21:30.920 --> 1:21:36.640 I think Derek Dooley is a smart idea because I 1:21:36.680 --> 1:21:40.679 think being an incumbent is a demerit r ord this year, 1:21:41.160 --> 1:21:44.240 and more importantly, being a congressman isn't it is a 1:21:44.280 --> 1:21:46.560 demerit And if I were John Assoff, I'd love to 1:21:46.640 --> 1:21:49.920 run against somebody whose first name is congressman versus somebody 1:21:49.920 --> 1:21:51.120 whose first name is coach. 1:21:51.520 --> 1:21:54.840 Okay, like it's congressman who's the son of a congressman, 1:21:54.920 --> 1:21:57.120 Like I can write that that's yeah, no. 1:21:57.200 --> 1:22:03.000 And so I am surprised that the Chris Lasovitaz and 1:22:03.160 --> 1:22:06.320 and the Tony Fabrizios, who right now do have the 1:22:06.360 --> 1:22:09.120 presidency here on some of these things, and and uh 1:22:09.320 --> 1:22:13.720 is it? And Blair the political director don't see the 1:22:13.840 --> 1:22:16.839 value in coach Duley versus Congressman Collins. 1:22:17.760 --> 1:22:21.599 You know, on that front, it's it's the most the 1:22:21.600 --> 1:22:24.879 best intro, the best bio for candidates. I'm an independent 1:22:24.920 --> 1:22:27.519 businessman and like Donald Trump, I'm fed up with the 1:22:27.640 --> 1:22:31.439 establishment and I'm it to Washington. Absolutely. And there are 1:22:31.479 --> 1:22:33.720 those people throughout these states. It's just who of them? 1:22:34.080 --> 1:22:37.559 Who of them can? Cause you know, podcasts actually good 1:22:37.600 --> 1:22:39.800 training for some of the guys who can go on 1:22:39.920 --> 1:22:41.320 and kind of riff for an hour. In terms of 1:22:41.439 --> 1:22:45.880 you knows, all right, those guys I think always need 1:22:45.960 --> 1:22:48.640 to be in the mix. Hey, you're the NBC all 1:22:48.640 --> 1:22:50.479 the time. He might run for sent Yes, I'm. 1:22:50.320 --> 1:22:52.040 Gonna push my elvelope here a little bit, but let's 1:22:52.040 --> 1:22:54.000 do I'm gonna try to do lightning around. Let's try 1:22:54.040 --> 1:22:58.440 to finish up in seven minutes. Tennessee special in December. 1:22:59.120 --> 1:23:02.200 Percentage chains that becomes a special election we all carry 1:23:02.520 --> 1:23:05.559 care about come December. Second, because it may show something. 1:23:05.600 --> 1:23:08.519 This is a little bit of suburbs of Nashville. It 1:23:08.600 --> 1:23:11.120 has all the makings. I look at it as if 1:23:11.160 --> 1:23:14.920 Democrats can't make it interesting. I actually see that as 1:23:14.920 --> 1:23:17.080 a yellow flag for the midterm. What say you am 1:23:17.080 --> 1:23:18.200 I overranke rating it? 1:23:18.760 --> 1:23:21.599 Do you want it a chance? I'd say fifty percent chance. 1:23:22.560 --> 1:23:25.240 I think that's another state where Republicans have run it 1:23:25.280 --> 1:23:28.120 for so long and they're so euburistic. And Andy Ogoles 1:23:28.200 --> 1:23:29.960 is the guy who won the other safe seat they 1:23:30.040 --> 1:23:31.599 drew at a go when they carved it up Nashville, 1:23:31.640 --> 1:23:34.479 and he's mediocre. If they get a mediocre candidate, Democrats 1:23:34.520 --> 1:23:36.040 will have a good one. Yeah, that's it's say fifty 1:23:36.040 --> 1:23:38.040 to fifty that beat. I could see that becoming like 1:23:38.080 --> 1:23:40.920 a five point race. And everybody's like, whoa, right, Like, 1:23:40.960 --> 1:23:43.000 I don't expect Democrats to win it. I'm talking about that. 1:23:43.080 --> 1:23:46.000 It's a you're like, uh oh, they've got to send 1:23:46.200 --> 1:23:51.680 they got to do something. Second thing is other than 1:23:51.800 --> 1:23:54.800 Ran Paul and Glenn Youngkin. Have you seen anybody else 1:23:54.880 --> 1:23:55.479 on the. 1:23:55.600 --> 1:24:00.519 Republican twenty twenty eight presidential primary trail? 1:24:00.640 --> 1:24:04.120 Like I said, Paul's out there, he's decided. It's pretty 1:24:04.120 --> 1:24:07.000 clear to me he's decided he's running. And Youngkin obviously 1:24:07.000 --> 1:24:11.599 went to Iowa. And then of course there's Christy Nomes 1:24:13.080 --> 1:24:17.519 obvious campaign on Cosplay primary. But in you know, there's 1:24:17.560 --> 1:24:21.880 this sub primary of the Trump cabinet right vance Rubyo Nome, 1:24:22.640 --> 1:24:25.000 you know, and I throw Howard Lutnik in there. 1:24:25.040 --> 1:24:27.960 I think he's gonna I think he's got an ego 1:24:28.000 --> 1:24:32.160 that is just only going to grow. But who else? 1:24:32.200 --> 1:24:35.320 Have you seen anybody else that you know? I haven't, Like, 1:24:35.360 --> 1:24:37.200 I expect Josh Holly to run for president, but I 1:24:37.200 --> 1:24:39.360 haven't seen him do the things that somebody would be 1:24:39.400 --> 1:24:42.000 doing right now to run for president. No, there was 1:24:42.040 --> 1:24:45.599 a float around Mike Brown, who just got elected Governor 1:24:45.680 --> 1:24:47.680 Van Diama. He shot it down pretty fast, didn't He 1:24:47.920 --> 1:24:50.599 shot it down very quickly. I've not seen anyone else 1:24:50.640 --> 1:24:54.080 getting into that that mix. Even the Trump kids, they'll 1:24:54.080 --> 1:24:58.960 get pulled. Not really. I feel that it's not because 1:24:58.960 --> 1:25:02.000 they're afraid of Trump stepping in and defending Dadie Vance 1:25:02.000 --> 1:25:06.200 and attacking them. I just haven't seen it yet. No, 1:25:06.680 --> 1:25:08.880 you're not missing anything. I've not seen a Republican that 1:25:08.880 --> 1:25:11.320 we've not heard of get in and put himself out 1:25:11.360 --> 1:25:13.760 as a as somebody that donors might want to be 1:25:13.760 --> 1:25:17.000 interested in. They might be underplaying it because it's it's 1:25:17.040 --> 1:25:20.960 I think Vance is a strong vice president in that position, 1:25:21.880 --> 1:25:24.960 but not invincible and does not have the independent appeal 1:25:25.000 --> 1:25:27.920 of Trump so young can. I mean not surprising that 1:25:27.960 --> 1:25:32.280 the former Carlisle is being entrepreneurial, but nobody else yet. 1:25:32.560 --> 1:25:35.240 No, I mean it's like I could picture a primary 1:25:35.280 --> 1:25:38.400 field that looked a lot like twenty sixteen Democrats, like 1:25:38.479 --> 1:25:41.439 four or five people, only an obvious front runner, and 1:25:41.479 --> 1:25:44.320 then somebody that catches fire that you don't expect. Right, 1:25:44.360 --> 1:25:48.000 if you told me Vance Paul was a really close primary, 1:25:49.080 --> 1:25:51.920 I wouldn't be totally blown away. I'd be more surprised 1:25:51.960 --> 1:25:55.360 if it were Vance Youngkin having a dueling it out. 1:25:55.400 --> 1:26:00.040 I guess Youngkin is such an on paper candidate and 1:25:59.760 --> 1:26:03.280 that and we've seen I've seen those guys implode in 1:26:03.320 --> 1:26:06.600 the past. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm not. I'm not 1:26:06.640 --> 1:26:09.920 as sold into Paul. I never underestimate I never underestimate 1:26:09.960 --> 1:26:13.360 the Paul family. They have a following that's durable. 1:26:14.640 --> 1:26:18.200 And I will see the conditions are. But look how 1:26:18.280 --> 1:26:20.679 much how much are Repulican voters actually gonna care about 1:26:20.680 --> 1:26:24.040 the debt in twenty twenty eight after another future You're 1:26:24.040 --> 1:26:26.920 thrown onto it, right, I see openings for him. I 1:26:26.920 --> 1:26:29.600 don't know the foreign policy situation. Trump overpromised what he 1:26:29.640 --> 1:26:32.360 was going to get done. I've see some openings, But 1:26:32.400 --> 1:26:36.200 you're really in a world where Trump won the midterms 1:26:36.240 --> 1:26:38.240 partly for the detective jerry mandering, harder to see in 1:26:38.240 --> 1:26:41.000 a world where Trump and Dvance are on defense from 1:26:41.200 --> 1:26:42.840 for the next two years. I mean, go back to 1:26:42.840 --> 1:26:46.280 George Bush and eighty eight, who really had trumple luck 1:26:46.280 --> 1:26:49.000 in that nomination down when he was there to a 1:26:49.040 --> 1:26:50.800 very popular president, right, but. 1:26:51.320 --> 1:26:53.160 He was always going to get the benefit of the doubt. 1:26:53.240 --> 1:26:55.439 He was still Ronald Reagan's vice president and Bob Ble 1:26:55.560 --> 1:26:57.920 wasn't He was still Ronald Reagan's vice president and Jack 1:26:57.960 --> 1:26:58.559 Kemp wasn't. 1:26:58.760 --> 1:27:01.280 Right. I've always said that should have been Jack Kemp's nomination. 1:27:01.520 --> 1:27:03.720 He was the true Ara apparent to the Reagan If 1:27:03.760 --> 1:27:05.960 you talk to anybody that worked in the Reagan White House, 1:27:06.040 --> 1:27:08.800 they viewed campus that true Ara parent. That doesn't mean 1:27:08.840 --> 1:27:12.040 you can voters voters see the words vice president and think, oh, 1:27:12.120 --> 1:27:16.400 I'm okay with that on and let me get you 1:27:16.439 --> 1:27:19.080 out of here on this because I think it has 1:27:19.160 --> 1:27:23.360 to do potentially, why do you think there's so many 1:27:23.400 --> 1:27:26.880 interested Democrats in running for Iowa Senate, Like of all 1:27:26.960 --> 1:27:30.000 places where we're seeing and they're all what's interesting about 1:27:30.000 --> 1:27:33.120 the four candidates three are already in one is pondering. 1:27:33.960 --> 1:27:36.559 They're all kind of the same candidate. They're running as 1:27:36.640 --> 1:27:39.400 new types of Democrats. They're on the younger side. 1:27:41.560 --> 1:27:46.719 They're culturally less progressive and liberal, right, you know, it's 1:27:46.840 --> 1:27:50.799 fascinating to me, And you're like, guys, you know, shouldn't 1:27:50.800 --> 1:27:52.320 one of you run for state treasury and one of 1:27:52.360 --> 1:27:53.960 you run for the attorney general or run of you 1:27:54.000 --> 1:27:56.120 what for a House an open house seat in the 1:27:56.160 --> 1:27:57.519 fourth or whatever it is. 1:27:58.080 --> 1:27:59.559 What do you make of that? Is that all? 1:27:59.720 --> 1:28:04.760 Because, like I do, since Republican fatigue in the governor's mansion, right, 1:28:04.800 --> 1:28:08.000 I think sans Rob Saon has all the markings of 1:28:08.439 --> 1:28:12.760 Charlie Baker in Massachusetts, or Laura Kelly in Kansas right where, Yeah, 1:28:12.800 --> 1:28:16.280 there's sort of or ADYE. Basher in Kentucky. Yeah, hey, 1:28:16.280 --> 1:28:18.479 that guy's you know, not too liberal. He's not one 1:28:18.520 --> 1:28:21.040 of those national Democrats. Let's let him govern things. 1:28:21.240 --> 1:28:24.240 I don't like this education policy that that the you know, 1:28:24.479 --> 1:28:26.720 it's education that I think is the real sort of 1:28:27.360 --> 1:28:28.719 the issue that if Rob. 1:28:28.680 --> 1:28:31.679 Sayon wins, that's why he ends up winning. But I'm 1:28:32.200 --> 1:28:34.360 it's a head scratcher to me about the Senate race, 1:28:35.400 --> 1:28:37.920 other than I assume they think that she's not running. 1:28:40.000 --> 1:28:46.000 Yeah, they that's safe. Although most Democrats i've talked to, 1:28:46.040 --> 1:28:48.880 and this includes the Senate candidates. Do think she was 1:28:48.920 --> 1:28:51.160 a She was a more clear target than Ashley Henson, 1:28:51.160 --> 1:28:53.559 who they expect would run against run from the seat, 1:28:54.280 --> 1:28:58.360 the former former tv TV she runs to the seat. 1:28:58.400 --> 1:29:01.560 I bet you one or two of those Senate Democratic 1:29:01.600 --> 1:29:04.080 candidates jump in the nationally instancy for what it's worth. 1:29:05.000 --> 1:29:07.719 Uh, I think does he live? I'm thinking because Walsall 1:29:07.760 --> 1:29:09.880 was in Iowa City, I think he's in. He's in 1:29:10.040 --> 1:29:13.599 Miller Meets's Well, yeah, I'm you know, love that does 1:29:13.680 --> 1:29:17.560 Let's end on an exciting redistricting conversation. Yeah, yeah, I 1:29:17.560 --> 1:29:19.800 always city goes back and forth between whether it's in 1:29:19.800 --> 1:29:21.800 the first of the second, you know, depending on who's 1:29:22.000 --> 1:29:25.040 who got those short straw. On the Republican remander, I 1:29:25.040 --> 1:29:27.680 think it's it's one of a faction, a factor of 1:29:27.760 --> 1:29:30.360 the party at the party decline and there's no one 1:29:30.360 --> 1:29:31.800 in the party who can say run for this, not 1:29:31.840 --> 1:29:34.560 that too the man that's the Sands factor, because the 1:29:34.760 --> 1:29:38.479 sand Reublicans really said, I mean, if if he does 1:29:38.560 --> 1:29:40.160 run and when it will be. Remind me a bit 1:29:40.200 --> 1:29:44.120 when Republicans jerrymandered out Joe Connolly and forced to run 1:29:44.120 --> 1:29:45.880 for Senate, which he with Donnelly, would you, which he 1:29:45.920 --> 1:29:48.599 won Indiana because Republicans went on to terrors taking away 1:29:48.680 --> 1:29:51.240 rob Sand's powers and he said, it's nothing for me 1:29:51.280 --> 1:29:53.439 to run for his auto anymore. It's a run for governor. 1:29:54.160 --> 1:29:57.559 Oh and he's been using fiscal conservatism arguments. They are 1:29:57.840 --> 1:30:00.639 I mean, he's he's running on a mess that Ram 1:30:00.640 --> 1:30:04.200 Emmanuel would have been with Champion back in oh six. 1:30:04.320 --> 1:30:08.719 Run on corruption, run on you know, saving people money, 1:30:08.800 --> 1:30:11.400 you know, sort of run on sort of bread and 1:30:11.400 --> 1:30:15.000 butter issues to get you know, that's what's available to them. 1:30:15.040 --> 1:30:17.160 And then you throw in the fact that you know 1:30:17.240 --> 1:30:20.960 Kim Reynolds. You know, it's funny she's so I assume 1:30:21.000 --> 1:30:23.120 she's not running because she made Maga so mad by 1:30:23.200 --> 1:30:27.600 endorsing Desanta's And that is still a hangover inside the 1:30:27.640 --> 1:30:30.120 Republican Party in Iowa a little bit. But it is 1:30:30.160 --> 1:30:32.719 fascinating to me. You're just like, Wow, Democrats are struggling 1:30:32.720 --> 1:30:35.519 as a party, but somehow they have four reasonably decent 1:30:35.520 --> 1:30:38.000 Senate candidates showing up in Iowa. All of them are 1:30:38.080 --> 1:30:43.640 interesting on paper candidates. The guy and Council bluffs, the 1:30:44.800 --> 1:30:48.200 Chamber of Commerce guy, the baseball player, right, like they 1:30:48.240 --> 1:30:51.400 all have interesting one I think a Republican seat and 1:30:51.439 --> 1:30:54.120 a special so they all have their story. They're like 1:30:54.160 --> 1:30:57.920 four Molly mcmorrows, if you will out of there. So 1:30:57.960 --> 1:31:00.559 it's just a it's it is an other one where 1:31:00.600 --> 1:31:01.880 it makes me want to go to the state fair 1:31:01.920 --> 1:31:04.559 this year, and you know state fairs in about a week. 1:31:05.200 --> 1:31:08.599 And it was a diego stopping by no I I think. 1:31:08.880 --> 1:31:11.800 So remember Iowa has that rule where nobody gets more 1:31:11.800 --> 1:31:14.759 than thirty five percent in the primary. They oh convention. 1:31:14.880 --> 1:31:16.800 I think that's going to be if all they stay in. 1:31:17.400 --> 1:31:18.840 That is the irony is that it will be a 1:31:18.840 --> 1:31:21.880 bunch of insiders that decide this problem. Somebody might be 1:31:21.960 --> 1:31:24.080 convinced that they would be better off running because I 1:31:24.120 --> 1:31:26.719 think an agg was one that Democrats come close on before. 1:31:28.080 --> 1:31:31.360 But how do you sand is the kind of now 1:31:31.360 --> 1:31:35.439 he didn't in twenty twenty two, but the Santus brought 1:31:35.439 --> 1:31:39.800 this up. But Iowa and Florida were this archipelago of 1:31:39.840 --> 1:31:41.479 states where there was a red wave and that was 1:31:41.520 --> 1:31:45.000 in part because Democrats just gave up on Iowa and they. 1:31:44.800 --> 1:31:46.960 Gave up and Democrats gave up on Florida. Right, It 1:31:46.960 --> 1:31:49.920 was it was. It was more of surrender than it 1:31:50.000 --> 1:31:50.920 was accomplishment. 1:31:50.960 --> 1:31:52.880 But yeah, so this will be the first time they 1:31:52.920 --> 1:31:56.599 will head since Fred Hubble in twenty eighteen. A real 1:31:56.640 --> 1:31:58.880 candidate with real sources, and unlike Fred Hubble, who is 1:31:58.960 --> 1:32:02.839 running at a very culturally liberal, let's protect abortion candidate, 1:32:03.080 --> 1:32:05.559 sand is very different in ways you set up. Yeah, 1:32:05.600 --> 1:32:08.160 they're going to compete for it. Uh, there's also a 1:32:08.200 --> 1:32:11.479 little bit of this is their last their last chance 1:32:11.520 --> 1:32:14.519 to convince Democrats to maybe give them back a caucus. Oh, 1:32:14.560 --> 1:32:16.439 I think it's a little harder. 1:32:16.479 --> 1:32:18.880 Oh yeah, yeah, I think if sand wins I was 1:32:18.920 --> 1:32:21.000 first on the nation again, I do, and I think 1:32:21.280 --> 1:32:25.160 I think the Democratic Party I think there they were 1:32:25.200 --> 1:32:27.639 idiots to get out of Iowa because when you look 1:32:27.640 --> 1:32:31.000 at the problem the party has talking to rural voters, well, 1:32:31.080 --> 1:32:33.400 making all your candidates learn how to talk to royal 1:32:33.520 --> 1:32:35.160 voters might be a good idea. 1:32:34.880 --> 1:32:37.400 In your first in the first president of primary state. 1:32:38.600 --> 1:32:40.800 Although it ended up happening. Is the one thing that 1:32:41.160 --> 1:32:42.800 cooled them on it was who was turning up for 1:32:42.800 --> 1:32:45.400 the caucuses was the most progressive Democrats. So they said, hey, 1:32:45.439 --> 1:32:47.160 was it a good idea? They have to go around 1:32:47.200 --> 1:32:49.720 here and promise to stop deportations, because that's what they 1:32:50.120 --> 1:32:51.759 yell that area. When I was in the city. 1:32:52.200 --> 1:32:54.519 Their best messenger, a guy named Pete Bootajid, was the 1:32:54.560 --> 1:32:57.080 only one that was campaigning in eastern Iowa. And he 1:32:58.040 --> 1:33:01.400 arguably we can debate on who won Iowa, but he 1:33:01.479 --> 1:33:06.120 basically got there because he went to places that Democrats 1:33:06.120 --> 1:33:06.880 had stopped going to. 1:33:07.840 --> 1:33:11.200 I think I heard Bernie Sanders day enough times the 1:33:11.240 --> 1:33:13.840 winner the popular vote in Iowa. So he won the 1:33:13.840 --> 1:33:15.680 popular vote. Let's give him that, Yes. 1:33:17.240 --> 1:33:19.880 Dead Weigel, what is your favorite state fair food? You're 1:33:20.000 --> 1:33:22.840 you're one of the fewer campaign reporters that truly travels 1:33:22.920 --> 1:33:25.040 the country a lot. You've probably been to more than 1:33:25.080 --> 1:33:29.360 just the Iowa State Fair. Iowa State Fair, Minnesota, Minnesota 1:33:29.400 --> 1:33:32.320 State Fair. You know that that's a big rivalry, Indiana 1:33:32.360 --> 1:33:33.960 State Fair. The three of them think they have the 1:33:34.000 --> 1:33:35.559 best best state fairs. 1:33:35.960 --> 1:33:39.559 Have you been to all three? I've been to Iowa 1:33:39.560 --> 1:33:43.280 and Minnesota, and Minnesota's like to say, actually, you political 1:33:43.240 --> 1:33:44.880 reporteris don't realize that we have the best state fair. 1:33:44.920 --> 1:33:48.480 And I'll say, no, you do. And I've definitely the Minnesota. 1:33:48.120 --> 1:33:51.280 Wherever I go, right wherever I go, I will say 1:33:51.320 --> 1:33:54.400 it's the best state fair. You know, I'll suck up 1:33:54.400 --> 1:33:56.720 to the locals. Don't get me wrong. But you've been 1:33:56.760 --> 1:33:59.479 to both. Which one is it Minnesota or Iowa? 1:34:00.680 --> 1:34:04.080 I'd say Minnesota. Also remember like, no, we're disrespect to 1:34:04.080 --> 1:34:06.760 Iowa food. But Minnesota has that Andrew Zimmern tradition and 1:34:06.760 --> 1:34:09.719 they will always have not just the experimental fair food 1:34:09.720 --> 1:34:12.479 and the fair experimental fair food that you're eat like 1:34:12.520 --> 1:34:16.800 you would order it on menu anywhere. So I've like 1:34:16.840 --> 1:34:22.800 this the fusion Somalian like sorts of food that you 1:34:22.800 --> 1:34:25.519 need to do not expect. Yeah, Minnesota, that's fun. They 1:34:25.600 --> 1:34:27.760 change when they change the fair. They change every year. 1:34:27.760 --> 1:34:29.920 I will always get some cheese curds because I try 1:34:29.960 --> 1:34:33.400 to avoid fried stuff, but that that hot cheese curd 1:34:33.479 --> 1:34:37.040 in fresh brine oil unbeatable. But that's boring and there's 1:34:37.080 --> 1:34:39.240 usually more more exciting one once you get there. That 1:34:39.280 --> 1:34:41.160 competition that they had every year for the for the 1:34:41.160 --> 1:34:44.840 best new experimental food, just Minnesota is in. It is 1:34:44.840 --> 1:34:46.600 a thousand years ahead of everybody. 1:34:47.120 --> 1:34:50.240 So if you're a foodie, if you're a foodie, Minnesota 1:34:50.280 --> 1:34:52.920 is the call is with ne Minnesota is the one. Yeah, 1:34:52.920 --> 1:34:57.280 oh man, all right, I'm gonna I'm I'll be very curious. 1:34:57.520 --> 1:34:59.240 This is the weird type of thing that'll get a 1:34:59.240 --> 1:35:02.040 lot of feedback about. Right. We won't get any feedback 1:35:02.040 --> 1:35:04.120 about that, you know, all the conversation we had about 1:35:04.120 --> 1:35:07.360 trans issues. No, no, no no, the state Fair conversation. People 1:35:07.400 --> 1:35:10.040 will be more passionate about that. But I love it 1:35:10.080 --> 1:35:11.000 for a foodie. 1:35:11.280 --> 1:35:13.200 And you can go on YouTube if anybody really wants 1:35:13.240 --> 1:35:15.840 to see I did one year at the Iowa State Fair. 1:35:16.520 --> 1:35:19.360 I try one of everything. We did an experiment and 1:35:19.400 --> 1:35:21.880 I put it on YouTube. If your stomach can hack it, 1:35:22.640 --> 1:35:25.280 you can take a look at that. Dave Weigel, if 1:35:25.320 --> 1:35:27.640 you don't subscribe to his newsletter as I did with 1:35:27.720 --> 1:35:30.519 Ben Smith, I think the Semaphore newsletters number one. 1:35:30.520 --> 1:35:34.599 They don't make you pay. They're all free, thank you. 1:35:34.720 --> 1:35:37.360 Like for us independent media operations, we don't like to 1:35:37.400 --> 1:35:42.720 spend too much subscription money. We spend subscription money. I'm 1:35:42.840 --> 1:35:45.200 I'm I subscribe to a lot of papers, don't get 1:35:45.200 --> 1:35:47.720 me wrong, but it's free. 1:35:47.920 --> 1:35:48.920 It's fantastic. 1:35:49.000 --> 1:35:51.720 And as I said, you know, Dave, the fact that 1:35:52.400 --> 1:35:54.760 we've never worked together is a bummer to me. 1:35:55.320 --> 1:35:57.839 But I appreciate you coming on the pod. Well this counts. 1:35:57.880 --> 1:36:00.760 This is a podcast collaboration, so we find here you go, Well, 1:36:00.800 --> 1:36:03.120 I'm going to bring it back because that you know, 1:36:03.160 --> 1:36:07.519 there's political reporters who travel, and there's political reporters you know, 1:36:07.880 --> 1:36:09.960 and you travel, I know you're on the. 1:36:09.920 --> 1:36:13.479 Ground, and you bring a lot of nuanced to your reporting, 1:36:13.479 --> 1:36:17.240 which I think, frankly, strategists on both sides of the 1:36:17.280 --> 1:36:19.280 aisle respect a ton. 1:36:20.000 --> 1:36:23.240 Uh and that matters a lot. So good for Thanks 1:36:23.280 --> 1:36:24.880 so much, it's real pleasure to do this. Thanks. 1:36:25.200 --> 1:36:26.800 I'm glad we can make it work. Yeah, you got 1:36:26.800 --> 1:36:37.800 a brother. Thanks well. 1:36:38.840 --> 1:36:40.720 I hope you enjoyed that conversation with Dave. I know 1:36:40.800 --> 1:36:43.800 I enjoyed it because you know this is this is 1:36:43.800 --> 1:36:46.720 my bread and butter. I love I can go deep 1:36:46.800 --> 1:36:49.000 on any campaigns that you want to go. 1:36:49.200 --> 1:36:53.920 I love this stuff. And one thing and you heard 1:36:53.960 --> 1:36:54.400 me there. 1:36:54.520 --> 1:36:58.920 I do think there is one state that will rise 1:36:59.000 --> 1:37:01.439 above the rest as far as importance in the midterms, 1:37:01.439 --> 1:37:03.960 and it is the state of Michigan. And let me 1:37:04.040 --> 1:37:06.479 just say, I promise you will get I'm going to 1:37:06.960 --> 1:37:09.840 if you want to be as informed and as ready 1:37:09.880 --> 1:37:11.160 for these midterm elections. 1:37:11.640 --> 1:37:14.080 As you want to be stay with me on this. 1:37:14.640 --> 1:37:16.560 I promise you I'll get you educated in all the 1:37:16.600 --> 1:37:18.760 key places and we're going to be doing some deep 1:37:18.800 --> 1:37:22.519 diving on Michigan in the extremely near future. But let 1:37:22.560 --> 1:37:25.160 me take a few questions here a little ask Chuck. 1:37:25.040 --> 1:37:28.720 Ask Chuck, Hello, Chuck. 1:37:28.760 --> 1:37:31.080 I used to teach this comes from Brian Drake. Cutt 1:37:31.120 --> 1:37:36.040 it Brian f from track It, Massachusetts. Maybe it's track It. 1:37:36.280 --> 1:37:36.680 I don't know. 1:37:36.760 --> 1:37:39.479 I don't know this town. Hopefully I pronounced it correctly. 1:37:39.479 --> 1:37:40.360 My apologies if I. 1:37:40.320 --> 1:37:42.639 Did not, and he asked U, Hi, Chuck. 1:37:42.640 --> 1:37:44.400 I used to teach ap government and politics, and my 1:37:44.400 --> 1:37:47.040 class would watch MPTP every Sunday and we would devote 1:37:47.040 --> 1:37:49.479 Monday's class to discuss in the topics. Always appreciated your 1:37:49.479 --> 1:37:51.439 insider analysis and love to have the chance to listen 1:37:51.479 --> 1:37:54.200 to you without the restrictions of the sixty minute show, 1:37:54.240 --> 1:37:58.080 actually forty four minutes. I just read a book called 1:37:58.120 --> 1:38:00.240 Lucky Loser, in which the author's journalists for The York 1:38:00.240 --> 1:38:03.040 Times exposed Trump's solution of success. I was floored by 1:38:03.040 --> 1:38:05.120 how much of his life has been built on live scams, 1:38:05.160 --> 1:38:07.439 and wonder how so many people have been duped by him. 1:38:07.479 --> 1:38:10.360 Will there ever be a Toto who will pull away 1:38:10.400 --> 1:38:10.880 the curtain? 1:38:11.640 --> 1:38:11.840 You know? 1:38:12.120 --> 1:38:15.720 This was you get at something, Brian that I think 1:38:15.840 --> 1:38:18.120 was the greatest disconnect of the twenty sixteen election. 1:38:20.760 --> 1:38:21.559 And you know when. 1:38:21.439 --> 1:38:24.080 People talk about did we properly? When I say we 1:38:24.240 --> 1:38:28.240 the collective, we did the media properly vet Trump? And 1:38:28.280 --> 1:38:32.080 there was always this aspect of Trump where I think 1:38:32.080 --> 1:38:34.400 we all assumed everybody knew the story. This was a 1:38:34.400 --> 1:38:37.880 fairly famous peep you know, don't you know he bankrupted 1:38:37.920 --> 1:38:40.559 three casinos, don't you know he did this? And all 1:38:40.600 --> 1:38:44.559 of his businesses were failures. And there was certainly plenty 1:38:44.560 --> 1:38:49.000 of stories done about how not had they simply let 1:38:49.240 --> 1:38:54.280 his inheritance just accumulate interest and dividends in the stock market, 1:38:54.320 --> 1:38:57.200 that he'd have more money today than he did when 1:38:57.240 --> 1:39:00.439 he used his inheritance to try to try his hand 1:39:00.520 --> 1:39:01.559 at real estate development. 1:39:03.720 --> 1:39:06.960 And it has always been, you know, he's he's it's. 1:39:07.400 --> 1:39:12.240 All been, it's all been smoking mirrors with him, right 1:39:12.600 --> 1:39:17.759 Atlantic City was smoking mirrors. Trump Airlines was spoken mirrors. 1:39:18.479 --> 1:39:20.479 You know, the Apprentice, it was always he always found 1:39:20.520 --> 1:39:24.520 other He always found other people to finance his investments 1:39:24.560 --> 1:39:27.320 and stuff. Now he's not alone and of doing this. 1:39:27.439 --> 1:39:33.000 And you know, I did the first interview I did 1:39:33.040 --> 1:39:33.360 with him. 1:39:34.920 --> 1:39:35.400 One of the. 1:39:36.920 --> 1:39:41.080 Pre interview transcripts that I became obsessed with was an 1:39:41.120 --> 1:39:44.200 interview he gave in nineteen ninety to Playboy magazine. It 1:39:44.280 --> 1:39:48.680 was for a reporter writing for Playboy, obviously freelance reporter. 1:39:50.479 --> 1:39:54.320 But it was It was a fascinating interview because it 1:39:54.360 --> 1:39:57.000 was as revealing as Trump ever was about sort of 1:39:57.880 --> 1:40:01.479 the what was sort of referred to as the Trump Show. 1:40:01.880 --> 1:40:04.840 This is in nineteen ninety, before there's an apprentice, right 1:40:04.920 --> 1:40:09.920 before there's any of this stuff, right, And I remember, 1:40:10.040 --> 1:40:13.160 you know, I even repeated what I said. You know, 1:40:16.680 --> 1:40:18.920 the reporter asked you. I went to Trump, I said, 1:40:18.920 --> 1:40:22.760 the reporter asked you about you know, the yacht, the planes, 1:40:22.920 --> 1:40:27.439 the girls, what is all this? And he called it 1:40:27.479 --> 1:40:30.160 props for the This was in the ninety interview, props 1:40:30.160 --> 1:40:35.200 for the show. And in the interview, Trump's answer was, 1:40:35.240 --> 1:40:38.639 and it's been sold out every day. And I said, 1:40:38.880 --> 1:40:42.000 props for the show, and he goes, yeah, And I said, 1:40:42.280 --> 1:40:46.000 and I remember asking him, you've been compared to P. T. Barnum, 1:40:46.000 --> 1:40:47.800 Do you take that as a compliment, he said, I do, 1:40:49.800 --> 1:40:52.640 and I thought that was the as revealing of a 1:40:52.720 --> 1:40:55.719 moment as you could have had with them, right, Speaking 1:40:55.720 --> 1:40:58.960 of revealing moments, I do, I do believe that. You know, 1:40:59.120 --> 1:41:02.160 there's always the pictures worth a thousand words and sometimes 1:41:02.280 --> 1:41:08.759 videos worth a million. If you just needed one video 1:41:08.880 --> 1:41:12.880 to explain Donald Trump's presidency, what it likely was like, 1:41:13.720 --> 1:41:15.400 what was it like to work for Donald Trump? And 1:41:15.479 --> 1:41:18.760 what kind of person is Donald Trump? The video of 1:41:18.880 --> 1:41:22.760 the staffer dropping the golf ball and supposedly searching for 1:41:22.800 --> 1:41:24.640 the golf ball and then dropping in to make it 1:41:24.680 --> 1:41:29.960 easy for the president to find. I don't think you 1:41:30.000 --> 1:41:34.479 need anything else. I think it is one of those 1:41:35.320 --> 1:41:37.760 need you say more? What else do you need to 1:41:37.800 --> 1:41:40.000 know about him? And I remember, actually, of all people, 1:41:40.000 --> 1:41:43.080 it was Rush Limbaugh who once said, by the way, 1:41:43.080 --> 1:41:47.559 that golf golf will tell you more about a person's 1:41:47.640 --> 1:41:51.519 character than anything, right, because you score yourself. It's all 1:41:51.560 --> 1:41:53.479 the honor system. Did you find your ball? 1:41:53.640 --> 1:41:56.320 Oh? Yeah, I found my ball? Did you or did 1:41:56.320 --> 1:41:57.000 you not? Right? 1:41:57.760 --> 1:42:01.439 It's all self reporting. Oh that's why we're always impressed 1:42:01.439 --> 1:42:05.439 when a golfer penalizes themselves. No one saw it but 1:42:05.520 --> 1:42:07.880 of course with cameras today, there's always a chance somebody 1:42:07.920 --> 1:42:11.360 saw it, and so you find out who wants to 1:42:11.360 --> 1:42:14.200 be seen as honest before being caught, and who wants 1:42:14.240 --> 1:42:18.360 to only be honest after getting caught. Right, And golf 1:42:18.439 --> 1:42:21.479 is one of those very much reveals who you really are, 1:42:21.960 --> 1:42:25.400 right essentially, are you willing the cut corners? Are you 1:42:25.479 --> 1:42:30.160 somebody that has a foot wedge? I always say ironically 1:42:30.479 --> 1:42:32.840 it was Russe Limbaugh, because look, I mean there's stories 1:42:32.880 --> 1:42:37.280 of Bill Clinton was a cheater at golf supposedly, right, 1:42:37.360 --> 1:42:44.519 you'd hear these stories, So it's a I think it's 1:42:44.560 --> 1:42:48.040 an incredibly revealing moment. But to go back to the 1:42:48.080 --> 1:42:54.120 basis of your question, when I think about all these 1:42:54.240 --> 1:42:56.720 I don't think you know think I don't think we 1:42:57.479 --> 1:43:00.200 realized that the country needed more of an education his 1:43:00.200 --> 1:43:03.240 business background. I think there was this weird assumption first 1:43:03.479 --> 1:43:05.920 when he first got in, there wasn't the typical coverage 1:43:05.920 --> 1:43:07.840 you get of who is Donald Trump? Do you really 1:43:07.880 --> 1:43:11.600 know Donald Trump? Because nobody took the candidacy seriously. It 1:43:11.640 --> 1:43:14.800 felt like a publicity stunt. Because most of what Donald 1:43:14.800 --> 1:43:17.479 Trump's done his whole life is aublicity stunt. And in fact, 1:43:17.680 --> 1:43:20.160 to those of us that have had to cover Donald 1:43:20.200 --> 1:43:23.200 Trump off and on, he was viewed as kind of 1:43:24.640 --> 1:43:27.400 he was viewed as that person. Oh god, I mean 1:43:28.760 --> 1:43:31.400 in twenty eleven, when he was floating the idea of 1:43:31.439 --> 1:43:33.439 running for president, it felt like we were all being 1:43:33.560 --> 1:43:35.880 used for just a publicity stunt for. 1:43:35.880 --> 1:43:43.599 Him to to to try to get NBC to pony 1:43:43.640 --> 1:43:47.240 up more money to renew The Apprentice. 1:43:47.760 --> 1:43:50.240 I remember getting a call one time, just sort of 1:43:50.720 --> 1:43:53.280 you know, putting him on speaker and on mute and go, 1:43:53.680 --> 1:43:55.400 I can't believe this guy is spending what does he 1:43:55.439 --> 1:43:58.479 have to do all day? Sitting here yelling at myself 1:43:58.479 --> 1:44:00.680 and Savannah Guthrie for thirty minutes. It's about why we 1:44:00.680 --> 1:44:04.280 should take them more seriously as a presidential candidate. Now, obviously, 1:44:04.280 --> 1:44:06.559 in hindsight, yeah, we should have. You know, what we 1:44:06.560 --> 1:44:09.160 should have taken seriously was not Trump, but it was 1:44:09.160 --> 1:44:11.599 the appeal of Donald Trump, right. That was that That's 1:44:11.640 --> 1:44:14.840 been you know to me, that's the that's disconnect number one. 1:44:14.960 --> 1:44:17.240 But disconnect number two is we did not we made 1:44:17.240 --> 1:44:20.760 too many assumptions that the what we we kind of 1:44:20.880 --> 1:44:23.240 knew Trump was was sort. 1:44:23.000 --> 1:44:23.439 Of this. 1:44:24.800 --> 1:44:26.519 I don't know what you want to call him, P T. 1:44:26.680 --> 1:44:30.719 Barnum phony, and we just assumed everybody else did too. 1:44:32.080 --> 1:44:34.280 And I think that if we had treated him as 1:44:34.280 --> 1:44:39.519 if he were Donald Smith, you know, a self proclaimed 1:44:39.560 --> 1:44:42.280 billionaire that people don't know a lot about, and you 1:44:42.400 --> 1:44:45.559 sort of were uncovering here's here was, here's how this 1:44:45.600 --> 1:44:50.599 deal really worked, and his this deal really worked. Perhaps 1:44:50.680 --> 1:44:53.720 voters see this version of him, you know, perhaps you 1:44:53.720 --> 1:44:57.200 don't need to pray for Toto to come in. But 1:44:57.320 --> 1:44:59.400 there's also a part of me that thinks that that 1:44:59.479 --> 1:45:02.640 this is something that maybe not that it will be 1:45:02.760 --> 1:45:05.240 like the Wizard of Oz. It'll be the end of 1:45:05.280 --> 1:45:11.000 the story when people finally all figure it out. But 1:45:11.040 --> 1:45:13.840 I often wonder if we collectively had sort of treated 1:45:13.920 --> 1:45:17.280 him as a candidate, that we didn't assume everybody knew, 1:45:18.240 --> 1:45:21.000 that we had dug into his background, as if we 1:45:21.000 --> 1:45:25.080 assumed the voters didn't know him. Maybe some of these 1:45:25.120 --> 1:45:31.920 stories hit differently, hit sooner, but you know, hindsight, right, 1:45:31.960 --> 1:45:35.880 what do they say? Twenty twenty next question comes from 1:45:35.960 --> 1:45:39.439 Jim parts unknown perhaps, and he asked us, why does 1:45:39.439 --> 1:45:42.679 the USA give such unconditional support to israel? I perceive 1:45:42.760 --> 1:45:45.720 nat Yah who's having more sway over Trump than vice versa. 1:45:45.840 --> 1:45:48.679 Why does the tail wag the dog here? People are suffering, starving, 1:45:48.680 --> 1:45:50.640 and no matter what Israel does, it seems they have 1:45:50.680 --> 1:45:53.320 our unconditional support. Why aren't we the one dictating the terms? 1:45:53.360 --> 1:45:56.760 You're asking a question that Jim Baker once asked of 1:45:56.880 --> 1:45:57.600 George H. W. 1:45:57.800 --> 1:45:58.280 Bush. 1:45:58.520 --> 1:46:01.320 Bill Clinton's asked that question, Barack Obamas asked that question. 1:46:01.560 --> 1:46:06.320 Here's the irony is that Bibi Netanyaho individually has always 1:46:06.320 --> 1:46:09.360 been the one that's never understood that he that he's 1:46:09.360 --> 1:46:09.800 supposed to. 1:46:09.800 --> 1:46:12.080 Be the little brother in the relationship, not the big brother. 1:46:12.680 --> 1:46:16.160 He always has treated the American presidents as if they 1:46:16.200 --> 1:46:19.280 work for him, not vice versa. So you're not wrong 1:46:19.320 --> 1:46:24.280 about that relationship. And what's interesting is, you know, Jim Baker, 1:46:24.800 --> 1:46:27.280 this is George H. W. Bush's Secretary of State famously 1:46:27.360 --> 1:46:30.679 barred net Yahoo from the State Department. This is before 1:46:30.720 --> 1:46:33.280 he was ever Prime minister, but it was sort of 1:46:35.560 --> 1:46:37.959 Bbe has a way of wearing out his welcome with everybody. 1:46:38.040 --> 1:46:40.320 Ward is welcome with Bill Clinton, Water is welcome with 1:46:40.320 --> 1:46:43.040 George W. Bush, Wata is welcome with Barack Obama. Warld 1:46:43.120 --> 1:46:46.439 is welcome with with with Donald Trump, what is welcome 1:46:46.479 --> 1:46:50.760 with Joe Biden, and yes, even Donald Trump, right like, 1:46:50.880 --> 1:46:54.120 you know, because of the posture he takes. 1:46:54.160 --> 1:46:54.920 So you're not wrong. 1:46:55.520 --> 1:46:57.960 I do think this is catching up with him, right. 1:46:58.000 --> 1:47:02.479 You now have a Biparson coalition growing in the House 1:47:03.000 --> 1:47:07.000 and then the Senate that that can't support you know, 1:47:07.040 --> 1:47:10.320 that supports Israel, but can't support everything Israel is doing 1:47:10.320 --> 1:47:11.679 militarily right now in Kasa. 1:47:13.680 --> 1:47:15.800 It's you know, when you know, it's funny. 1:47:15.800 --> 1:47:20.840 When the tide turns, it really turns. I think the 1:47:20.880 --> 1:47:23.040 reason why so many American presidents stood by for so 1:47:23.160 --> 1:47:26.240 long is it Israel. Is Israel has been the only 1:47:26.280 --> 1:47:29.439 democracy in the midleaus right, true democracy in the Middle East, 1:47:29.439 --> 1:47:31.160 And so if we're not going to stand by them, 1:47:31.560 --> 1:47:32.559 you know, when aren't we? 1:47:32.600 --> 1:47:33.960 You know, why why wouldn't we do that? 1:47:37.120 --> 1:47:42.080 Obviously bbi's tactics and sort of you know, what he's 1:47:42.080 --> 1:47:44.160 done to try to change in judiciary is even sort 1:47:44.200 --> 1:47:48.640 of challenging, you know, sort of what democracy is and 1:47:48.720 --> 1:47:53.519 looks like in the in the state of Israel. You know, 1:47:53.880 --> 1:47:59.880 I do think that he's he's misplayed his lever whatever 1:48:00.040 --> 1:48:03.960 average he believed he had over many American politicians he 1:48:04.040 --> 1:48:04.559 is starting. 1:48:05.600 --> 1:48:06.760 I think he overplayed his hand. 1:48:07.600 --> 1:48:10.599 I think he's gotten he's and the problem, I think 1:48:10.640 --> 1:48:12.599 it's pretty clear what the problem is. He is so 1:48:12.800 --> 1:48:16.840 worried about his own legal peril that he's afraid of 1:48:16.840 --> 1:48:19.280 losing power. Right the minute he loses power, the legal 1:48:19.320 --> 1:48:23.360 peril immediately comes back. Right, what protects him from legal 1:48:23.360 --> 1:48:24.639 trouble staying in power? 1:48:25.000 --> 1:48:26.000 What has that done? 1:48:26.640 --> 1:48:30.720 It is as he's alienated more and more centrists and 1:48:30.760 --> 1:48:33.760 then center right folks right, and he's coalitions, he's had 1:48:33.760 --> 1:48:37.920 to lean more heavily on far right coalitions, and his 1:48:38.040 --> 1:48:39.839 far right members are very radical. 1:48:39.840 --> 1:48:42.240 They're anti Palestinian. They have never been for the two 1:48:42.280 --> 1:48:44.800 state solution. I'm old enough to remember when Biebe was 1:48:44.840 --> 1:48:47.200 for the two state solution, and he'd never put gold 1:48:47.200 --> 1:48:49.880 in a coalition with anybody that wasn't for it. And 1:48:49.960 --> 1:48:55.960 over time, for political survival is he has partnered with 1:48:56.400 --> 1:48:59.760 coalition further and further to the right that in many 1:48:59.840 --> 1:49:05.360 ways will punish him if he isn't aggressive against Hamas, 1:49:05.640 --> 1:49:13.080 if he doesn't continue to expand the settlements I mean settlements. Look, Trump, 1:49:13.520 --> 1:49:14.240 that was one thing. 1:49:14.280 --> 1:49:16.479 Trump just let him have cart Blatch And I think, 1:49:16.920 --> 1:49:20.439 you know, Trump found common cause with net Yahoo because 1:49:20.680 --> 1:49:24.080 Yahoo became anti Obama. Right, So, you know, the way 1:49:24.080 --> 1:49:26.320 Trump is is very binary. The enemy of my enemy 1:49:26.360 --> 1:49:28.760 is my ally. Oh you don't like Obama? You know, 1:49:28.760 --> 1:49:30.400 it's just like, why did he suck up to Putin? 1:49:30.520 --> 1:49:33.680 Putin didn't like Hillary? You know that it may be 1:49:33.840 --> 1:49:37.479 the you know, maybe he's on Putin's payroll, but maybe 1:49:37.479 --> 1:49:41.800 he simply played favorites with Putin because Putin didn't like 1:49:41.880 --> 1:49:43.960 Hillary and he didn't like Hillary. And there's there's a 1:49:43.960 --> 1:49:47.400 part of Trump that's just very binary in his thinking 1:49:47.439 --> 1:49:52.120 that way. So, but I think he now realizes because 1:49:52.120 --> 1:49:55.040 I do think you know, Trump seemed Trump. Trump is 1:49:55.120 --> 1:49:58.480 moved by pictures, right, we know this, right, He believes 1:49:58.600 --> 1:50:02.679 in the visual. He understands visual. I think I've shared 1:50:02.720 --> 1:50:04.880 with you that he one time wanted to rewatch an 1:50:04.920 --> 1:50:08.400 interview I conducted with him without sound before, you know, 1:50:08.560 --> 1:50:10.320 just wanted to see what the lighting look like, see 1:50:10.320 --> 1:50:10.920 what he looked like. 1:50:11.600 --> 1:50:12.559 And you know. 1:50:12.720 --> 1:50:15.559 He's he cares about the visual. That's why he dresses 1:50:15.680 --> 1:50:17.120 exactly the same way. 1:50:17.040 --> 1:50:17.920 All the time. Right. 1:50:17.960 --> 1:50:20.960 He he believes the visual is a brand and it 1:50:20.960 --> 1:50:26.000 says something and the visuals coming out of Gaza are 1:50:26.160 --> 1:50:28.200 you know. I mean, look at how he responded to 1:50:28.320 --> 1:50:30.360 one of the questions. You know, I don't I know 1:50:30.439 --> 1:50:33.280 what the Israeli government says, and I know what I see. 1:50:34.120 --> 1:50:37.680 So he is moved by visuals almost more than many 1:50:37.720 --> 1:50:43.240 people are moved by visuals, and so it's you know, 1:50:43.280 --> 1:50:45.479 I don't I I you know, I think we we 1:50:46.120 --> 1:50:49.080 there's a lot of cynicism about Trump, and it's earned cynicism. 1:50:49.120 --> 1:50:52.440 I think he truly is is doesn't like being associated 1:50:52.439 --> 1:50:54.559 with this at all. Now, I have to tell you 1:50:54.680 --> 1:50:58.840 there's a there's another part of me that thinks, I 1:50:59.560 --> 1:51:05.439 where the United States of freaking America. Why can't we 1:51:05.479 --> 1:51:08.400 go in there and say, God, damn it, Hamas, We're 1:51:08.400 --> 1:51:11.639 coming in and we're feeding everybody, every fucking person. We're 1:51:11.640 --> 1:51:13.320 feeding everybody in Gaza, and what are you going to 1:51:13.400 --> 1:51:15.360 do about it? And we come in there like the 1:51:15.479 --> 1:51:18.439 mighty United States government and we're there to make sure 1:51:18.479 --> 1:51:22.559 everybody eats and everybody's got access to food. Who's going 1:51:22.640 --> 1:51:27.240 to stop us? So there's there's a part of me 1:51:27.280 --> 1:51:29.640 that thinks that if we want, you know, if we 1:51:29.680 --> 1:51:30.280 wanted to, we. 1:51:30.240 --> 1:51:33.880 Could could we we be putting some soldiers in harms. 1:51:33.880 --> 1:51:36.240 Way we might be, and that's not something that perhaps 1:51:36.320 --> 1:51:38.719 we have the stomach for, or perhaps the administration doesn't 1:51:38.720 --> 1:51:41.040 want to do. So there is a part of me 1:51:41.080 --> 1:51:43.320 that thinks that way about this, that like, you know what, 1:51:43.479 --> 1:51:47.920 you know, let's just push BB aside. We'll do it 1:51:47.960 --> 1:51:51.519 if he won't, you know. And that's who we are 1:51:51.960 --> 1:51:55.640 right where the United States, freaking America, and we're not 1:51:55.640 --> 1:51:56.679 going to let somebody start. 1:51:56.960 --> 1:51:58.479 We're not letting a population start. 1:52:01.400 --> 1:52:05.880 But I do think that BB has really damaged the 1:52:05.880 --> 1:52:09.120 politics of Israel in America. He's alienated half the Democratic 1:52:09.240 --> 1:52:14.840 Party by getting blatantly partisan during the Obama years. You know, 1:52:16.040 --> 1:52:18.080 he should be thank you very you know, he tried. 1:52:18.160 --> 1:52:21.880 He realized his mistake with Obama when he became the 1:52:21.920 --> 1:52:24.639 first world leader to congratulate Biden after his victory. He 1:52:24.680 --> 1:52:30.160 was he realized that he had You know, he's not stupid. Okay, 1:52:30.200 --> 1:52:32.680 BB's not stupid at all. He knows he made a 1:52:32.680 --> 1:52:36.040 political mistake. That the reason there's a rising anti Israel 1:52:36.080 --> 1:52:39.960 sentiment in the Democratic Party is directly because of how 1:52:40.240 --> 1:52:42.800 Biebe drove a wedge and sort of became a partisan, 1:52:43.000 --> 1:52:47.719 got involved against Obama and against Democrats in our country, right, 1:52:47.920 --> 1:52:51.439 got involved in politics, in partisan politics on the side 1:52:51.520 --> 1:52:55.160 during during the Romney campaign, and that was that did 1:52:55.160 --> 1:52:57.680 some real damage. In fact, I get into this with 1:52:58.400 --> 1:53:02.400 Richie torresm my Newsphere episode this week. If you go 1:53:02.479 --> 1:53:05.320 check out my interview with Richie where we talk about 1:53:05.320 --> 1:53:09.840 that and the damage, the long term damage politically BB 1:53:10.000 --> 1:53:12.080 did to Israel's standing. 1:53:12.080 --> 1:53:13.400 In the United States Congress. 1:53:14.920 --> 1:53:18.160 And you know, look, when I first started covering politics, 1:53:18.760 --> 1:53:21.680 it was the Republican Party that had more Israel skeptics 1:53:21.680 --> 1:53:24.920 than the Democratic Party. Pat Buchanan was the one of 1:53:24.960 --> 1:53:28.800 the leading and Bob Novak two conservative columnists who were 1:53:28.800 --> 1:53:35.320 both skeptical of the of this sort of unchecked support 1:53:35.400 --> 1:53:39.000 for Israel. Now it is interesting to see that that 1:53:39.000 --> 1:53:42.040 that that faction exists, and there's sort of the roots 1:53:42.080 --> 1:53:45.519 of MAGA I think are very Israel skeptic a little 1:53:45.560 --> 1:53:49.439 bit due to sort of more in the isolation is upfront, 1:53:50.680 --> 1:53:55.240 but you know, so this is and then the Republican 1:53:55.280 --> 1:53:58.479 Party became, thanks to the evangelicals, more pro Israel than 1:53:58.520 --> 1:54:02.360 the Democratic Party. It's possible we're starting to see this 1:54:02.439 --> 1:54:08.000 coalition sort of reshape itself yet again. But look, you know, 1:54:08.040 --> 1:54:11.840 the future of Israel's standing with the United States, I 1:54:11.880 --> 1:54:14.439 think depends largely on how long beating that now, who 1:54:14.479 --> 1:54:15.120 stays in power? 1:54:17.439 --> 1:54:20.200 All right? This one comes from Daniel from Fairfax. His 1:54:20.360 --> 1:54:22.280 question is this. In your interview with. 1:54:23.880 --> 1:54:26.320 Jim and Marjorie, you discussed the long history of Massachusetts 1:54:26.360 --> 1:54:29.960 politicians having powerful national presence with presidential potential. As a 1:54:29.960 --> 1:54:32.760 lifelong Virginia made me realize we haven't had a politician 1:54:32.840 --> 1:54:35.160 with such a profile in my lifetime. I know in 1:54:35.240 --> 1:54:37.680 Virginia used to be the home of presidents. Right, It's 1:54:37.680 --> 1:54:42.000 still I think second to Ohio in elected presidents, but 1:54:42.080 --> 1:54:45.400 hasn't had a president since Wilson anyway. Do you think 1:54:45.400 --> 1:54:47.320 that is a product of governors having a single four 1:54:47.400 --> 1:54:50.120 year term referring to Virginia. Is it because the Commonwealth's 1:54:50.120 --> 1:54:52.680 politics have been dominated by birds and warners, with the 1:54:52.680 --> 1:54:55.480 occasional rob Kine thrown in since the post war air 1:54:55.520 --> 1:54:57.560 thus making it hard for newcomers to break through, or 1:54:57.800 --> 1:55:01.240 given the relatively stable state wide economy, Jinay, governors not 1:55:01.360 --> 1:55:05.040 make lasting national impressions provided they stay out of legal trouble. 1:55:05.080 --> 1:55:07.600 I love the new podcast. Thanks. 1:55:08.760 --> 1:55:13.320 Well, look, I mean, you know, Chuck Rob was supposed 1:55:13.320 --> 1:55:16.120 to be the next Virginian to become president. Right, the 1:55:16.440 --> 1:55:20.880 Democratic Party, with the leadership of Governor Chuck Rob at 1:55:20.880 --> 1:55:24.400 the time, created Southern Super Tuesday, you know for the 1:55:24.440 --> 1:55:30.360 eighty four election, which ended up benefiting Walter. It ended 1:55:30.440 --> 1:55:33.000 up becoming sort of it did eventually benefit of Bill 1:55:33.040 --> 1:55:36.320 Clinton right come ninety two, but it was actually designed 1:55:36.320 --> 1:55:38.640 to help one of these Southern governors and the southern 1:55:38.680 --> 1:55:43.040 governor that the party, the people in the party that 1:55:43.120 --> 1:55:46.680 pushed for this primary calendar change and was orchestrating this 1:55:46.760 --> 1:55:50.240 sort of one of the first sort of races to 1:55:50.480 --> 1:55:55.560 early up primaries and create is the Southern Democratic governors. 1:55:55.600 --> 1:55:59.720 They wanted to create a primary day Super Tuesday. This 1:55:59.800 --> 1:56:03.360 is the original Super Tuesday was just Southern states, and 1:56:03.400 --> 1:56:05.520 it was the goal was to elect one of these 1:56:05.520 --> 1:56:10.320 Southern Democratic governors, whether it was Rubin Ascue a you know, 1:56:10.320 --> 1:56:11.840 you had Jimmy Carter before them, but you had a 1:56:11.880 --> 1:56:14.560 Rubin Ascue in Florida or Bob Graham later, you had 1:56:14.560 --> 1:56:18.040 a Zel Miller, you had Chuck Rob, you had Bill Clinton, 1:56:18.160 --> 1:56:21.520 you had Dick Riley in South Carolina. 1:56:22.000 --> 1:56:24.320 There was a whole series of these reform and they 1:56:24.320 --> 1:56:27.760 were reform governors. They were considered were from Jim Hunt 1:56:27.760 --> 1:56:32.240 in North Carolina, and they were all working on education policy. 1:56:32.360 --> 1:56:36.000 They were sort of staying at of cultural issues. And 1:56:36.640 --> 1:56:39.000 so Chuck Rob was that whole thing was. It was 1:56:39.080 --> 1:56:41.840 Chuck Rob lbj son in law that was seen as 1:56:41.880 --> 1:56:45.400 the future of that. And you know, in ninety two, 1:56:45.440 --> 1:56:49.440 Doug Wilder ran for president himself. Now he was in 1:56:49.440 --> 1:56:51.560 the middle of that feud with Chuck Robb, which I think, 1:56:52.000 --> 1:56:55.400 I do think the Chuck Rob Doug Wilder feud of 1:56:55.480 --> 1:56:59.160 ninety one ninety two, which by the way, is just 1:56:59.200 --> 1:57:03.240 a young political reporter. I mean, that's how I got 1:57:03.280 --> 1:57:06.960 to know Mike Allen. Mike Allen of Axio's Fame, Playbook Fame. 1:57:07.320 --> 1:57:09.520 He was a young cub reporter for the Richmond Times 1:57:09.520 --> 1:57:12.120 Dispatch and man, this was his beat. He had the 1:57:12.160 --> 1:57:17.520 feud the Warner they excuse me, the the Rob Wilder feud. 1:57:17.880 --> 1:57:20.680 One of the great inter party fights ever. 1:57:21.000 --> 1:57:21.600 I mean, if we. 1:57:21.600 --> 1:57:24.000 Had had an Internet era then, I mean there was 1:57:24.560 --> 1:57:28.200 secret taping, tape recordings of each other. There was a 1:57:28.320 --> 1:57:31.040 nude massage thrown in. I mean, if you really want 1:57:31.040 --> 1:57:33.200 to go down those rabbit holes. It's a it actually 1:57:33.280 --> 1:57:36.080 might be. You know, I've always tried to sell a 1:57:36.120 --> 1:57:38.280 thirty for thirty for politics. You know, this is one 1:57:38.280 --> 1:57:41.920 of those What if I told you that two Democratic governors, 1:57:42.280 --> 1:57:44.600 one who was the lieutenant governor at one point to 1:57:44.760 --> 1:57:47.480 the Democratic governor got into the type of fight that 1:57:47.560 --> 1:57:52.560 started secret tape recordings, secret you know, nude massages and 1:57:53.240 --> 1:57:58.240 how it, you know, upended the future of Virginia's democratic 1:57:58.280 --> 1:58:03.080 politics and presidential politics. So look, and Mark Warner was 1:58:03.120 --> 1:58:05.680 going to run for president, and then a guy named 1:58:05.680 --> 1:58:07.960 Barack Obama started to He was going to be the 1:58:08.000 --> 1:58:11.080 new media guy. He was the tech guy that was 1:58:11.120 --> 1:58:12.880 going to be able to talk to this new Internet 1:58:12.880 --> 1:58:16.880 community in six seven. Look, if Obama doesn't run, Mark 1:58:16.920 --> 1:58:20.000 Warner may have been that and had been a Virginian. 1:58:20.080 --> 1:58:22.200 So I do think some of it recently has been timing. 1:58:23.400 --> 1:58:25.640 Glenn Youngkin, I think is going to run in twenty eight, 1:58:25.880 --> 1:58:30.760 so there's another opportunity. But you know, I've never met 1:58:30.760 --> 1:58:33.720 a Virginia governor who liked the one term lament. They 1:58:33.760 --> 1:58:36.839 all think it should be, you know, and you don't. Obviously, 1:58:36.880 --> 1:58:40.520 you can serve non consecutively. Terry mcculloff wanted to do it. 1:58:41.200 --> 1:58:44.480 He just lost to Youngkin and couldn't pull it off. 1:58:45.280 --> 1:58:48.200 Terry mcaloff was going to run for president. He wanted 1:58:48.240 --> 1:58:51.000 to run for president in twenty twenty had Joe Biden 1:58:51.000 --> 1:58:53.400 not run, and I think had Biden not run, TERR 1:58:53.480 --> 1:58:55.000 mccallff would have jumped in to try to be the 1:58:55.040 --> 1:59:00.960 centrist candidate in that lane. So I look at and 1:59:00.960 --> 1:59:03.120 and Tim Kaine was Hillary. Let's not forget Tim Kane 1:59:03.160 --> 1:59:07.040 was Hillary Clinton's running mate, right, So I think there 1:59:07.120 --> 1:59:11.920 was certainly opportunities that just sort of you know, for 1:59:11.960 --> 1:59:16.360 a variety of reasons, specific specific folks. Look George Allen, 1:59:17.280 --> 1:59:20.120 you know, I profiled him early on in a Washingtonian piece. 1:59:20.160 --> 1:59:23.360 I remember I went to a NASCAR track with George 1:59:23.400 --> 1:59:27.440 Allen as he was starting to prepare for a presidential 1:59:27.440 --> 1:59:29.160 candidate in two thousand and eight. This was in two 1:59:29.200 --> 1:59:30.680 thousand and five. But he had to get through a 1:59:30.720 --> 1:59:32.360 reelection that most people thought was going. 1:59:32.360 --> 1:59:33.040 To be a cakewalk. 1:59:34.000 --> 1:59:38.920 Well, one Makaka moment later and he loses reelection to 1:59:39.000 --> 1:59:41.200 O six, to Jim Webb. And yet there's another Virginia 1:59:41.240 --> 1:59:47.000 politician whose presidential ambitions went up and smoked. So I 1:59:47.040 --> 1:59:49.240 guess what I'm telling you is, I don't think Virginian 1:59:49.600 --> 1:59:52.720 politicians have lost their ambition to be president. 1:59:53.520 --> 1:59:56.520 I just think that they for a variety of reasons. 1:59:57.200 --> 2:00:00.280 The timing, and that might be the argument you'd make 2:00:00.480 --> 2:00:04.600 is that the timing of the election calendar actually might 2:00:04.680 --> 2:00:09.240 be what has made it difficult for these potentially nationally 2:00:09.280 --> 2:00:15.320 interesting candidates to get traction in a year, you know, 2:00:15.360 --> 2:00:17.160 and be able to because if you think about it, 2:00:17.160 --> 2:00:20.080 the year before the actual presidential race is the midterm 2:00:20.120 --> 2:00:22.480 election year in the state of Virginia, And if you're 2:00:22.520 --> 2:00:24.160 a sitting governor, you got to worry about your own 2:00:24.160 --> 2:00:26.000 mid terms if you want to keep if you want 2:00:26.040 --> 2:00:28.920 to have a governing majority, or at least a non 2:00:28.920 --> 2:00:34.920 hostile legislature. So I think there's plenty that want to 2:00:34.960 --> 2:00:37.320 add their name to the list. But you know, there 2:00:37.400 --> 2:00:40.360 was a time, you know, I think I think, especially 2:00:40.440 --> 2:00:44.880 now with Jade Vance being in in the in the 2:00:44.920 --> 2:00:49.680 catbird seat to be the next nominee the Republican Party, Ohio's, 2:00:49.880 --> 2:00:53.400 Ohio's got a better chance of electing a new president 2:00:53.440 --> 2:00:54.320 than Virginia does. 2:00:55.240 --> 2:00:57.960 In that race between those two states. All right. 2:00:57.960 --> 2:01:01.360 Next question, speaking of Ohio, comes from Aaron Kay and Cincinnati, 2:01:02.200 --> 2:01:04.360 and she writes this, I may have missed this because 2:01:04.400 --> 2:01:05.960 I am behind a few episodes, but I thought we 2:01:05.960 --> 2:01:08.040 were taught growing up that redistricting was tied to the 2:01:08.080 --> 2:01:11.080 census every ten years and has only done once every decade, 2:01:12.160 --> 2:01:14.240 a year or so after the census. If that is 2:01:14.280 --> 2:01:17.400 the case, why can each state call a redistricting at 2:01:17.440 --> 2:01:19.160 whim or did they set new precedence? 2:01:19.160 --> 2:01:19.880 Thanks very much. 2:01:20.200 --> 2:01:22.640 You know, it turns out these were just norms, right. 2:01:22.720 --> 2:01:24.640 You know, there's a few places where it's written into 2:01:24.640 --> 2:01:27.919 the constitution that you can only redraw maps once a decade, 2:01:28.120 --> 2:01:30.880 but in most places it's not written to the state constitution. 2:01:31.040 --> 2:01:35.080 So then it becomes, you know, the assumption we went 2:01:35.120 --> 2:01:37.440 through this because you'd have a jerrymander and then a 2:01:37.520 --> 2:01:40.320 court would reorder a new map, right, So then you'd 2:01:40.320 --> 2:01:45.600 have a court order that forced this. Sometimes that's exactly 2:01:45.600 --> 2:01:49.160 what a legislature was intending. They wanted to force a 2:01:49.200 --> 2:01:51.200 court order so that they could open up the map. 2:01:52.360 --> 2:01:54.960 But I think that's the issue. There's nothing in the constitution. 2:01:55.640 --> 2:01:58.720 The constitution simply leaves it to state legislatures to decide 2:01:58.720 --> 2:02:01.360 the lines. They don't say how this state legislatures should 2:02:01.400 --> 2:02:03.040 decide the lines. Which is why if you want to 2:02:03.160 --> 2:02:06.280 use an outside commission to draw the lines, and then 2:02:06.320 --> 2:02:09.440 the legislature approves, you want to have the legislature draw it, 2:02:09.680 --> 2:02:14.120 so be it. But it's however the legislature deems the 2:02:14.160 --> 2:02:17.480 way to do it in state in said state acts. 2:02:17.960 --> 2:02:21.160 But look, this is the hallmark of the Trump bears. 2:02:21.160 --> 2:02:23.080 There was a whole bunch of things that we thought 2:02:23.080 --> 2:02:25.280 were there's a whole bunch of norms that we all 2:02:25.320 --> 2:02:27.640 treated as law, and it turns out nope, they were 2:02:27.720 --> 2:02:30.560 just they were just traditions we all agreed to abide 2:02:30.600 --> 2:02:34.280 to abide by until apparently we didn't. And I kind 2:02:34.320 --> 2:02:36.640 of think that's where we are in redistricting. And it's 2:02:36.640 --> 2:02:39.560 certainly a fear that I have, which is this tip 2:02:39.600 --> 2:02:42.160 for tat. I understand it strategically right. 2:02:42.440 --> 2:02:42.800 You know, the. 2:02:42.720 --> 2:02:44.320 Democrats are going to argue if they're going to do it, 2:02:44.360 --> 2:02:47.200 we're going to do it. But when you set a 2:02:47.240 --> 2:02:49.960 precedent of doing it, that's what you've just done. You've 2:02:49.960 --> 2:02:52.120 set a precedent and you've made it easier for the 2:02:52.160 --> 2:02:53.960 next legislature to say, well, if they did it, why 2:02:54.040 --> 2:02:56.720 can't we do it? And then once another party says yeah, 2:02:56.720 --> 2:03:00.320 we're going to do it too, well, then all of 2:03:00.360 --> 2:03:03.800 a sudden, we have you know, we have no rules, right, 2:03:03.840 --> 2:03:05.960 we don't have a rules based system at all. And 2:03:06.000 --> 2:03:08.880 then you don't have trustworthy elections. Right if you get 2:03:08.920 --> 2:03:11.960 to decide who your voters are, is it a democracy anymore? 2:03:13.200 --> 2:03:13.320 So? 2:03:13.440 --> 2:03:16.280 Look, this is this is why if you heard my 2:03:16.320 --> 2:03:19.880 friend Larry Lessig a couple a couple episodes ago where 2:03:19.920 --> 2:03:22.280 he and I are advocating it might be time for 2:03:22.320 --> 2:03:25.480 a constitutional convention where we deal with things like this, 2:03:26.080 --> 2:03:28.600 and that you have a constitutional amendment that is a 2:03:28.640 --> 2:03:34.400 bit explicit that says, you know, either create either create 2:03:34.440 --> 2:03:38.240 an equation for redistricting itself. Like I actually think you 2:03:38.240 --> 2:03:40.160 can have an equation. You know, no district should be 2:03:40.400 --> 2:03:44.640 more than more than ten points ten percentage points more 2:03:44.680 --> 2:03:47.960 Republican or Democrat than the average percentage of what a 2:03:47.960 --> 2:03:51.480 Democrat has gotten over a decade in the last two 2:03:51.560 --> 2:03:54.920 governors races and presidential races. You sort of average those numbers. 2:03:54.960 --> 2:03:57.920 I know I'm sitting here describing some easy math to 2:03:57.960 --> 2:03:59.800 go by, but I would take sort of give me 2:03:59.800 --> 2:04:04.120 the average democratic statewide vote among governor's races and presidential races. 2:04:04.280 --> 2:04:04.640 Give it the. 2:04:04.760 --> 2:04:09.040 Average Republican vote, and then you basically say, no district 2:04:09.040 --> 2:04:13.280 could be ten points more Republican or less or more democratic. 2:04:13.720 --> 2:04:16.760 You know, in any district you draw, you know something 2:04:16.920 --> 2:04:20.200 like that that you create some parameters to at least 2:04:23.080 --> 2:04:25.440 minimize the shenanigans. 2:04:24.720 --> 2:04:29.360 That are played here with redistrict. All right, I'll make 2:04:29.400 --> 2:04:32.480 this my last question. It comes from Los Alamos, New Mexico, 2:04:32.600 --> 2:04:35.600 home of the. 2:04:35.440 --> 2:04:41.080 Nuclear bomb and mister Oppenheimer and at all. So this 2:04:41.160 --> 2:04:43.440 comes from Pete d. Los Alamos, New Mexico, and he 2:04:43.440 --> 2:04:45.920 writes this, my biggest fear if there was a constitutional 2:04:46.000 --> 2:04:49.640 convention would be the death of the most important part 2:04:49.640 --> 2:04:51.640 of the Constitution, the First Amendment. How can we protect 2:04:51.640 --> 2:04:54.280 the freedoms of speech, assembly, press, and most importantly, the 2:04:54.280 --> 2:04:56.680 separation of church and state in a constitutional convention. I 2:04:56.720 --> 2:04:59.040 do not trust my fellow citizens to keep that and 2:04:59.080 --> 2:05:01.400 certainly not to strength it back to the founder's intent. 2:05:02.640 --> 2:05:04.080 Please tell me how I'm wrong. 2:05:04.240 --> 2:05:06.480 I guess I just look at it as that it's 2:05:06.520 --> 2:05:09.680 the way, you know, you still would have the same 2:05:09.760 --> 2:05:13.680 rules of it would take, you know, supermajorities to approve 2:05:13.720 --> 2:05:18.720 an amendment, supermajorities to get this done, so I think 2:05:18.760 --> 2:05:23.960 there would be compromises. I just don't think the first 2:05:24.000 --> 2:05:27.680 amendment would get messed with. I really don't. I think realistically, 2:05:27.680 --> 2:05:29.920 I think you get a balanced budget amendment, which would 2:05:30.280 --> 2:05:32.800 wreak some havoc at first on our budget, but I 2:05:32.800 --> 2:05:35.680 think that would I think that would get in there. 2:05:35.720 --> 2:05:38.720 I think you might get a campaign finance law in there. 2:05:38.760 --> 2:05:41.880 I think you would get term limits or age Actually, 2:05:42.040 --> 2:05:44.600 I think what's more likely is age limits. Right, since 2:05:44.640 --> 2:05:47.160 age minimums are already in the constitution, I think it 2:05:47.280 --> 2:05:50.680 makes it easier to sell age limits in the constitution. 2:05:50.840 --> 2:05:53.520 So maybe we would have it for the judiciary, for 2:05:54.000 --> 2:05:55.560 the Senate, for the House, et cetera. 2:05:58.840 --> 2:05:59.840 But I just. 2:06:01.640 --> 2:06:04.640 I hate the idea that you can't trust your fellow citizens. 2:06:05.000 --> 2:06:08.120 If we can't trust each other at a constitutional convention, 2:06:09.600 --> 2:06:13.360 then aren't we Isn't the Republic already lost? So I 2:06:13.360 --> 2:06:19.360 guess I'm I'm That's where I'm ultimately, I'm betting I'm 2:06:19.400 --> 2:06:20.080 the better angel. 2:06:21.760 --> 2:06:22.040 I'm not. 2:06:22.400 --> 2:06:27.200 I'm not saying you're not wrong and you're concerned. I'm 2:06:27.200 --> 2:06:31.480 betting on the process itself. I think I will say this. 2:06:31.840 --> 2:06:36.880 I think our fellow citizens, I think we all are 2:06:36.920 --> 2:06:39.880 more are are our patriots, you know when we're when 2:06:39.880 --> 2:06:42.120 we're put If we were put into a situation like that, 2:06:44.800 --> 2:06:46.800 I think we would be capital p patriots. 2:06:47.360 --> 2:06:50.840 I do. And I think that that that you know. 2:06:50.920 --> 2:06:53.720 The constitution, you know, now, maybe we would need to 2:06:53.720 --> 2:06:57.760 make sure everybody that showed up the Constitutional Convention read 2:06:57.840 --> 2:07:01.400 up on the actual Constitutional Convention of seventeen eighty nine 2:07:02.200 --> 2:07:04.320 and realize that, hey, this is going to be a 2:07:04.320 --> 2:07:07.120 compromise document. This isn't going to be the be all 2:07:07.200 --> 2:07:09.680 end all, This isn't going to favor one side or 2:07:09.760 --> 2:07:13.240 the other. This is going to sift out what do 2:07:13.320 --> 2:07:20.200 we need to update the infrastructure of our republic. So look, 2:07:20.240 --> 2:07:22.440 a lot of it would depend on leadership, but I 2:07:22.480 --> 2:07:27.320 think you can't. I guess I'm going to put my faith. 2:07:28.440 --> 2:07:30.600 Let me put it in another way. I trust the voters. 2:07:30.840 --> 2:07:32.800 There's always something to learn from the voters, even if 2:07:32.840 --> 2:07:36.240 I disagree with their decision, and I think our I 2:07:36.280 --> 2:07:39.160 think ultimately voters eventually get it right. We have two 2:07:39.240 --> 2:07:42.240 hundred and forty eight years with this republic. So far 2:07:42.680 --> 2:07:46.440 because when we've gotten it wrong, we've eventually gotten it right. 2:07:46.600 --> 2:07:49.800 Do we elect the McCarthy, We do, and then we 2:07:49.880 --> 2:07:51.560 eventually move on from McCarthy. 2:07:51.640 --> 2:07:55.120 So I think you have to. 2:07:55.680 --> 2:07:59.080 If you can't trust your fellow citizens in a constitutional convention, 2:07:59.160 --> 2:08:07.320 then I might argue the republic is more fragile than 2:08:07.400 --> 2:08:10.280 we thought. So on that uplifting note, I think I 2:08:10.320 --> 2:08:14.560 will end the end the mailbag portion for this episode. 2:08:14.960 --> 2:08:19.080 As always, I appreciate you listening, and I believe and 2:08:19.160 --> 2:08:19.920 this is one right. 2:08:19.960 --> 2:08:22.280 This is Wednesday episode, So guess what I'm going to 2:08:22.280 --> 2:08:24.240 see you in twenty four hours and with that until 2:08:24.240 --> 2:08:24.880 I upload down