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Speaker 1: Hello there, Welcome to another episode of the Chuck Podcast.

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Speaker 1: We are coming up on the end of July, and

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Speaker 1: there's another aspect that I want to get into today.

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Speaker 2: My guest is Dave Wygel.

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Speaker 1: He's sort of the chief political correspondent, certainly the campaign

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Speaker 1: guru these days over at Semaphore. I first got to

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Speaker 1: note Dave Weigel at a few of the other stops,

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Speaker 1: if you will, most recently before that, the Washington Post.

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Speaker 1: He is sort of my type of campaign reporter. He

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Speaker 1: likes to get out of Washington. He goes to these events.

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Speaker 1: He spends a lot of time. He goes to these.

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Speaker 1: You know, if there's an event where candidates are showing up.

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Speaker 1: There's a state picnic of some sort in Kentucky, they'll

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Speaker 1: call it Fancy Farm, and you know it's the Iowa

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Speaker 1: State Fair in Iowa where political candidates get together. There's

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Speaker 1: all these different things. Someday I'll give you a whole tour.

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Speaker 1: I actually would love to sell a podcast series where

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Speaker 1: I just go from a political event to political event

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Speaker 1: where they you know, sometimes you've got to go eat

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Speaker 1: bad fried fish with the local political leaders to showcase

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Speaker 1: your wares and this or that.

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Speaker 2: But anyway.

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Speaker 1: But Dave Weigel's that kind of guy, and he was

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Speaker 1: a perfect guy to do.

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Speaker 2: What I think is, you know.

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Speaker 1: If you look at the midterm calendar and you divide

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Speaker 1: it up into four quarters, there's basically, you know, we

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Speaker 1: are at the end of the first quarter of this

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Speaker 1: midterm cycle with November of twenty twenty six. Basically we're

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Speaker 1: at with the first quarter poll if you want to

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Speaker 1: talk about it as you're a racing fan, either cars

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Speaker 1: or horses, end of the first.

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Speaker 2: Quarter, if you want to talk about it.

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Speaker 1: As far as splitting things up that way. And there's

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Speaker 1: a few things that I get into deep with Dave about,

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Speaker 1: you know, what are the similarities between the political environment

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Speaker 1: of twenty twenty five and the political environment in the

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Speaker 1: first year of one point zero and twenty seventeen. We

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Speaker 1: get into all of that and sort of the different

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Speaker 1: sort of historical factor, sort of near term history that

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Speaker 1: favors one party versus the near term history that may

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Speaker 1: favor another.

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Speaker 2: So it is this is.

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Speaker 1: A political junkie day, and as you know, most Wednesdays

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Speaker 1: I do try to reserve sort of for my my

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Speaker 1: campaign midterm updates, and so that's what my substack focus

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Speaker 1: is this week. It is on sort of where are

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Speaker 1: we in the midterms after the first quarter, And the

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Speaker 1: way I put it is, we're in a coin flip situation.

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Speaker 1: What you know, if you'd asked me six months ago

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Speaker 1: what is the most likely result for the midterm elections,

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Speaker 1: I'd have said, well, Democrats are going to win the House.

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Speaker 1: The question is can they put the Senate in play?

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Speaker 1: Here we are six months in. I still think the

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Speaker 1: Democrats are favored to win the House, but I don't

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Speaker 1: have the same kind of certainty about it as I

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Speaker 1: felt six months ago. Part of that is to do

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Speaker 1: with redistricting and what may happen, the fact that we

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Speaker 1: are going to redo all these maps, and I think

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Speaker 1: it does sort of put a bit of paralysis over

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Speaker 1: the House map, especially when you look at four states

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Speaker 1: that may all try to remap their congressional districts before

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Speaker 1: the November elections. Texas, Ohio, California, New York. All of

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Speaker 1: four of those states have talked about a Missouri might,

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Speaker 1: Florida might as well. So the fact that you may

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Speaker 1: just take those first four states I mentioned, Texas, California,

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Speaker 1: New York, Ohio. Boy, there's approximately over a dozen swing

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Speaker 1: districts just there. So those four states alone could decide

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Speaker 1: this majority. Because you know, one of the ironies about

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Speaker 1: this reapportionment map, the one that we did right after

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Speaker 1: the census in twenty twenty, the map that was put

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Speaker 1: into place in twenty twenty two, is I would argue

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Speaker 1: it's the most competitive map, ie map that we've had.

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Speaker 1: I can go in individual states and say this is

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Speaker 1: an unfair map in favor of the Republicans, this is

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Speaker 1: an unfair map in favor of the Democrats. But when

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Speaker 1: you actually look at it from a wider lens through

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Speaker 1: all fifty states, you're like, oh, it's basically two and ten.

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Speaker 1: You know, two hundred and five sure bets for the Republicans,

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Speaker 1: two hundred and five sure bets for the Democrats, and

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Speaker 1: oh another twenty eight that are going to be the

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Speaker 1: actual battleground, right we what both parties have successfully done

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Speaker 1: is shrunk the battleground. Now, what could happen with all

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Speaker 1: of this attempt at redistricting in this mid decade attempt here,

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Speaker 1: as particularly as Republicans try to try to safeguard their

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Speaker 1: very narrow house majority, is it might actually expand the

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Speaker 1: number of swing districts they could actually open up. And

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Speaker 1: this is what I think could be the unintended consequence

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Speaker 1: of all this. If California Democrats are looking to find

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Speaker 1: more create more opportunities for Democratic seats, what it's going

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Speaker 1: to take for them to do it might weaken some

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Speaker 1: Democratic seats and put them more in play. Ditto for

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Speaker 1: what could happen in Texas as they try to strengthen

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Speaker 1: some Democratic seats to make them more Republican leaning. The

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Speaker 1: Republicans they put in those districts are going to come

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Speaker 1: from say, solid red districts that suddenly become lean Republican

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Speaker 1: and potentially competitive if Democrats find a compelling candidate. So

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Speaker 1: but at this you know, this is why you know

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Speaker 1: the fact that they're going through this process. You know,

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Speaker 1: someone like me looks like it's like, well, you know,

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Speaker 1: I hate jerrymandering. I hate how each state does it,

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Speaker 1: you know, but the results seem to be uneasy equilibrium,

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Speaker 1: which is probably better long term for the country.

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Speaker 2: So here we are.

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Speaker 1: So look, the House map I think is a bit uncertain,

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Speaker 1: but there are certain things that still favor the Democrats

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Speaker 1: in the mid terms. One is their their voting coalition.

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Speaker 1: They've become the coalition. They've they've acquired suburban voters as

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Speaker 1: part of their coalition, and suburban voters of the reliable

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Speaker 1: voters they vote in every election. Twenty and thirty years ago,

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Speaker 1: suburban voters leaned Republican, which is why Republicans used to

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Speaker 1: overperform in special elections. Republicans used to overperform in the midterms.

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Speaker 1: It was Democrats that needed the presidential turnout years to

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Speaker 1: improve their standing, you know, as recently as two thousand.

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Speaker 1: You know, Republicans over indexed in the midterms in ninety eight,

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Speaker 1: and Democrats over index in the presidential vote, which allowed

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Speaker 1: them to pick up four Senate seats in a presidential year.

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Speaker 1: It really wasn't until the advent of Trump when he

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Speaker 1: sort of shifted the party away from its Chamber of

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Speaker 1: Commerce routes to these more populous routes. They basically traded

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Speaker 1: a bigger pool of potential voters in presidential years, which

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Speaker 1: has helped Trump, but they've traded it for less reliable

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Speaker 1: voters in midterm years, where the Democrats have the more

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Speaker 1: reliable voters. Now that's why you see them over performing

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Speaker 1: in in special elections and why so many Why for instance,

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Speaker 1: I believe, and you'll learn this in the day, Wigle,

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Speaker 1: that there's probably going to be a special election in

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Speaker 1: December and Tennessee. That is close enough that I'll start

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Speaker 1: talking about it on this podcast. You can hold me

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Speaker 1: to it if it happened. If it doesn't happen, I

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Speaker 1: will happily admit I'm wrong on that one. But this

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Speaker 1: is that special election Mark Green who just resigned his

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Speaker 1: seat in Congress, and it's got a bit of the

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Speaker 1: suburbs of Nashville. It's got the makings of a potential,

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Speaker 1: you know, low turnout election. The people paying attention lean left,

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Speaker 1: the people paying less attention. There may and then that's

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Speaker 1: another aspect of the midterms of why the Democrats might

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Speaker 1: be favored is that the out party is already showing

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Speaker 1: signs of being more motivated to vote in the mid

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Speaker 1: terms than the end party. You know, it could very

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Speaker 1: well be that MAGA is tired of winning and doesn't

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Speaker 1: see a need to get out there and vote. This

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Speaker 1: is obviously a mindset that's Trump. White House is trying

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Speaker 1: to figure out how to change because it has been

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Speaker 1: a hallmark of the Trump era that in the midterms,

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Speaker 1: Republicans underperform.

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Speaker 2: Specifically, Trump voters don't show up.

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Speaker 1: However, as the atmospherics favor the Democrats, you do see

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Speaker 1: problems for the Democrats, right, you have a brand that

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Speaker 1: is unpopular. I rattled through that Wall Street Journal poll

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Speaker 1: a couple of days ago that told you that showed

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Speaker 1: you that Congressional Republicans are favored on a lion's share

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Speaker 1: of the major issues that can turn Americans about. The

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Speaker 1: only ones that they're not favored on are healthcare, which

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Speaker 1: is not an insignificant one.

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Speaker 2: And they were even with.

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Speaker 1: Looking out for the middle class, which is normally something

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Speaker 1: that the Democrats had a much bigger advantage on and

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Speaker 1: they don't at the moment. And there's one other thing

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Speaker 1: that's going in favor of the Republicans, which is why

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Speaker 1: in my sub stack I said, hey, this is a

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Speaker 1: midterm cycle where there's you can't say either party is

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Speaker 1: favored yet, and that is the republic Party is more

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Speaker 1: unified than it's been in any midterm yet in the

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Speaker 1: Trump era. You know, in both twenty eighteen and twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty two, the two midterms were Republicans lost the eighteen

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Speaker 1: midterms and essentially underperformed in their narrow House victory in

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Speaker 1: twenty two, Mitch McConnell run in the Senate campaign army,

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Speaker 1: and even on the House Republican side, they were constantly

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Speaker 1: looking for candidates in these swind districts that had some

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Speaker 1: distance from Trump.

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Speaker 2: They didn't want. They wanted candidates.

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Speaker 1: That Trump wasn't going to destroy and hate, but they

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Speaker 1: didn't weren't necessarily looking for MAGA. They were looking for

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Speaker 1: MAGA acceptable, not necessarily MAGA excited, and that would create

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Speaker 1: some problems.

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Speaker 2: Right.

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Speaker 1: We saw multiple primaries in both twenty eighteen and twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty two in the Republican Party where essentially it was

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Speaker 1: McConnell versus MAGA or the establishment versus Trump, and it didn't.

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Speaker 2: Matter who won or lost. It it hurt, it harmed

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Speaker 2: the party in the general.

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Speaker 1: It created an op for the Democrats this cycle, it

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Speaker 1: appears really only the Texas mess is a Republican primary

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Speaker 1: that could actually create an opportunity for Democrats if things

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Speaker 1: go the wrong way. But look at out quickly Republicans

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Speaker 1: have cleared the field and rallied around a canadate in

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Speaker 1: North Carolina. Cleared the field and rallied around a canadate

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Speaker 1: in Michigan. These are things that they have not been

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Speaker 1: able to do in previous midterms. So you have a

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Speaker 1: Republican party more unified, you could say more. You know,

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Speaker 1: it's Trump's party now, right. McConnell was still fighting, was

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Speaker 1: still swimming against that current. And even at times Kevin

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Speaker 1: McCarthy went hot and cold at swimming against that current.

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Speaker 1: You know, he kind of would be with Trump, then

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Speaker 1: he'd be against him and on camp you know, so,

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Speaker 1: but either way, there's none of that now, right, Mike

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Speaker 1: Johnson always swims with Trump, and John Thune has made

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Speaker 1: the decision, even though he's not always seeing eye to

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Speaker 1: eye with him, he is not he is not going

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Speaker 1: to operate that way as far as running the Senate

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Speaker 1: Republican campaign arms. So this is a more are in

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Speaker 1: sync Republican party and that should in theory put them

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Speaker 1: in better positions in some of these primaries. And then

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Speaker 1: there's one other aspect that unity on the Republican side

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Speaker 1: has also improved their financial aspect. For the first time, frankly,

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Speaker 1: in about a decade, the House Republicans collectively in the

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Speaker 1: swing in the in the in the most vulnerable districts,

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Speaker 1: seem to outraise the House Democratic incumbents in their most

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Speaker 1: vulnerable districts. This had not been the case for multiple cycles.

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Speaker 1: Democrats had been really good about raising early money fortifying

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Speaker 1: their more vulnerable members. It seemed as if this time

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Speaker 1: the Republicans finally got their act together.

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Speaker 2: Now there's a few reasons potentially for this one.

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Speaker 1: As I said, I think it's the unity inside where

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Speaker 1: this is Trump's party now and everybody's operating in the

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Speaker 1: same way, so there's no competing finance, financial factions, things

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Speaker 1: like that. The second is, I do think some Democratic

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Speaker 1: downers are sitting on their hands, So I do think

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Speaker 1: that there was some There was some money that Democrats

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Speaker 1: successfully raised before in twenty seventeen and twenty eighteen and

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty one and twenty twenty two that is

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Speaker 1: not there right now in this cycle.

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Speaker 2: It may come back.

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Speaker 1: You know, these donors are just disappointed. Maybe they're angry

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Speaker 1: at Biden, maybe they're angry at the Democratic leadership, maybe

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Speaker 1: they just lost faith.

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Speaker 2: Whatever it is.

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Speaker 1: Now they may come back and that money will show

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Speaker 1: up in the spring of twenty six and suddenly the

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Speaker 1: financial advantage that many House Democrats had been enjoying Overhouse

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Speaker 1: Republicans comes back. But that is yet another reason, right

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Speaker 1: you have you know, the Republican Party of twenty seventeen

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Speaker 1: that was in such you know, that was basically fighting

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Speaker 1: with itself, helped give And it was the Democrats that

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Speaker 1: were in the United Party after the twenty sixteen election,

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Speaker 1: not the Republicans, right, and that unity gave them the

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Speaker 1: opportunity to win forty seats in twenty eighteen.

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Speaker 2: There's just obviously a lot less.

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Speaker 1: Unity in the Democratic side at this point in time.

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Speaker 1: The atmospheric still favor the Democrats. That's the who you know.

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Speaker 1: Usually people that are unhappy are more likely to vote

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Speaker 1: than people that are satisfied. The magabase may feel satisfied,

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Speaker 1: and that's why I think Republicans are fearing if they

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Speaker 1: don't have a negative message to use to motivate their voters.

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Speaker 1: I think they fear they won't have a motivating message.

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Speaker 1: It is hard to get a voter to say, aren't

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Speaker 1: you happy about this tax cut? Come out and vote,

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Speaker 1: aren't you happy about these deportations? Come out and vote

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Speaker 1: versus So they got to create fear. I know that

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Speaker 1: they're talking about trying to use the threat of impeachment

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Speaker 1: if Democrats win the House, they'll impeach. I would be

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Speaker 1: surprised if voters buy into that. You know, maybe someone

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Speaker 1: there in the base will, but you know, you know,

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Speaker 1: outside of al Green, you don't hear a lot of

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Speaker 1: Democrats talking impeachment right now in the.

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Speaker 2: Real world because they're just not having the votes.

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Speaker 1: I don't think there's credibility there, and I think that

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Speaker 1: there's an exhaustion, right I think it would be you know,

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Speaker 1: if anybody campaigned on there's one thing about being a

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Speaker 1: check on Donald Trump and and working within the system

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Speaker 1: that I think is going to be quite appealing to voters.

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Speaker 1: And that's another thing that could be advantaged to the Democrats.

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Speaker 1: Here's one other trend line that I picked up on

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Speaker 1: as I was doing my dive into the first quarter

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Speaker 1: of the midterms. It's interesting, since nineteen ninety, every time

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Speaker 1: the Democrats have won the midterms, so that would be

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Speaker 1: nineteen ninety, that would be arguably two thousand and six,

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Speaker 1: twenty eighteen. Those three times the win in the midterms

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Speaker 1: led to winning the presidential Two years later nineteen ninety,

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Speaker 1: they gained seats in both the House and the Senate.

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Speaker 1: They already have the majorities, but the gain seats in

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Speaker 1: both the House and the Senate. They won the presidency

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Speaker 1: in ninety two. In two thousand and six, they won

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Speaker 1: both the House and the Senate, and at the time

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Speaker 1: the Senate was a bit of an upset. In what

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Speaker 1: happened in eight they win the presidency and won even

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Speaker 1: more House and Senate s. It's added to both majorities

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Speaker 1: on that front. Eighteen they win the House. While they

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Speaker 1: didn't get weren't able to pick up the Senate, it

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Speaker 1: did foreshadow the ability to win the presidency. The last

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Speaker 1: time Democrats won the midterms but lost the presidency the

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Speaker 1: following two years was actually eighty six.

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Speaker 2: That was a year they win the Senate.

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Speaker 1: Back in eighty six, they already had the House majority,

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Speaker 1: and then they go on to lose the presidential in

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Speaker 1: a landslide in eighty eight. And I bring up the

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Speaker 1: eighty six midterms because I think if I were looking

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Speaker 1: for a model that I think the current landscape supports

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Speaker 1: the best, it's potentially that where I can see the

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Speaker 1: Democrats doing well more as a reactionary response to Trump.

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Speaker 1: But come twenty twenty eight, all that baggage that the

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Speaker 1: Democrats are carrying right now about their brand, about their

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Speaker 1: what are they as a party. They're having a generational fight,

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Speaker 1: they're having an ideological fights. Sometimes those two things aligned,

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Speaker 1: sometimes they don't. You know, has the part already lost

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Speaker 1: enough in order to do the soul searching that needs

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Speaker 1: to be done? You know? How much should the party

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Speaker 1: be focused on policy and democracy versus culture?

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Speaker 2: Right?

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Speaker 1: I think that's the if I had somebody asked me

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Speaker 1: this question on my sub stack, what's the soul searching

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Speaker 1: that needs to be done? It's sort of like, you know,

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Speaker 1: what is how do they denote that they will fight

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Speaker 1: for the underdog without taking up every fight for every

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Speaker 1: underdog identity group?

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Speaker 2: You know?

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Speaker 1: How do you shift away from identity politics without abandoning

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Speaker 1: those very voters.

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Speaker 2: That were with you because they felt like you were

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Speaker 2: looking out for them.

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Speaker 1: I think these I think these challenges inside the party

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Speaker 1: they haven't fully figured out. Look that stuff usually doesn't

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Speaker 1: get sorted out until you have a north star of

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Speaker 1: a presidential nominee. And that is why I think both

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Speaker 1: things could be true here. This is a party that well,

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Speaker 1: there will be some ideological fights and maybe some primaries

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Speaker 1: produce some nominees that can't win generals for the Democrats.

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Speaker 1: But in essence, the larger momentum of the atmospherics may

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Speaker 1: favor them, and they may do well in the midterms,

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Speaker 1: but it may be meaning, you know, it may it

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Speaker 1: may not foreshadow success in twenty eight, because twenty eight

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Speaker 1: may truly be the actual fight for the soul of

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Speaker 1: the party. Which direction should it go? Right, That's what happened.

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Speaker 1: That's what happened after ninety.

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Speaker 2: You know, ninety took place, and then there was.

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Speaker 1: This a bit of a back and forth which direction

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Speaker 1: should the party go? And Bill Clinton ended up winning

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Speaker 1: that argument, and the center left coalition became became the

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Speaker 1: majority coalition on the Democratic side. So this is why

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Speaker 1: I think it's fascinating in this respect, Republicans in the

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Speaker 1: Trump era have never been in as good of a

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Speaker 1: position before midterm. Yet doesn't mean they'll have success. It

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Speaker 1: just simply means Democrats aren't going to get handed easy

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Speaker 1: opportun tunities thanks to own goals by the Republicans right

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Speaker 1: that benefited them quite a bit in eighteen, twenty and

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Speaker 1: twenty two. In these down ballot races, I do think

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Speaker 1: you will see fewer own goals on the R side

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Speaker 1: than we've seen, and the question is are there going

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Speaker 1: to be own goals?

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Speaker 2: On the Democratic side?

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Speaker 1: Is the is the the concern about the direction of

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Speaker 1: the party. Does that how much does that hurt Democrats

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Speaker 1: in the midterms. History says it may not hurt them

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Speaker 1: that much. What will really hurt them, I mean is

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Speaker 1: is the debate that may take place after the midterms.

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Speaker 1: But like I said, this is a check in in

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Speaker 1: the first quarter. There's plenty of examples where one thing

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Speaker 1: looks like it's going one way after one quarter and

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Speaker 1: then literally, you know, you know the expression a week

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Speaker 1: is a lifetime in politics, Well, imagine what three more six.

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Speaker 2: Month periods are in a midterm cycle. And we still

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Speaker 2: have that to go.

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Speaker 1: So with that, enjoy my conversation and you're sort of

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Speaker 1: deep dive into the where the two parties stand at

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Speaker 1: the moment and where directionally they may be headed in

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Speaker 1: the next eighteen months.

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Speaker 2: All right, Joining me now is well, I will I

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Speaker 2: will let.

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Speaker 1: Him tell what his official title is with Semaphore, But

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Speaker 1: he's basically the political guy, is the way I look

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Speaker 1: at it. He's the campaign guy. And Dave Weigel is

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Speaker 1: somebody that I've never worked with. And if I were

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Speaker 1: in Hotline today, I'd like to think Dave Wygel would

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Speaker 1: have been somebody we'd have got out, have coerced into

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Speaker 1: coming to the hotline. He's wired like a cook Report guy,

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Speaker 1: hotline guy Chris Sliza.

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Speaker 2: So, mister Wigle, it's good to see you, good to

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Speaker 2: talk with you. No, it's great to be here. Thank

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Speaker 2: you for saying that I am such an original hotline

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Speaker 2: follower that I used to. I think I had to

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Speaker 2: download the old hotline videos you did in the you.

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Speaker 1: Say download first of all the videos that was such

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Speaker 1: a that was a separate that was like John mccuriy

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Speaker 1: and I, you know, totally going, you know, doing a

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Speaker 1: total ripoff of PTI, and we were doing YouTube throwing

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Speaker 1: them up there. My old friend of mine, Dan Manette,

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Speaker 1: his dad is Chuck Manette, the late Chuck Manatte In

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Speaker 1: case wondering, Dan Manatt's a documentarian. It was his idea

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Speaker 1: and they still live on YouTube. Nothing goes away on YouTube.

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Speaker 1: It sits there forever.

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Speaker 2: Oh. I remember there was a nine to eleven tribute

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Speaker 2: video episode that you released with that I had YouTube's

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Speaker 2: Peace on Earth was the soundtrack. I have the memory

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Speaker 2: that that my memory that recalls congressional district names and

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Speaker 2: stuff is very spotty. I can't remember what time meetings start,

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Speaker 2: but I can't remember that, right, So big fan. Good

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Speaker 2: to be here. So it's good to talk with you.

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Speaker 2: And it's sort of where.

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Speaker 1: Look, we're talking on a Monday, July twenty eighth, a

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Speaker 1: big sort of midterm news of the day as the

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Speaker 1: Roy Cooper announcement in there, But I kind of want

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Speaker 1: to tackle things. We're going to start sixty thousand feet

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Speaker 1: and then we're going to travel the country a little bit.

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Speaker 1: Twenty seventeen versus twenty twenty five at this moment in time.

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Speaker 1: In twenty seventeen, we had the beginning of some well

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Speaker 1: there's some special election over performances. Democrats hadn't really won

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Speaker 1: anything yet, but it was starting to look I don't

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Speaker 1: think we had had the Connor Lamb special just yet,

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Speaker 1: but it was the Mike Pompeo Special. There was a

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Speaker 1: couple of others, and hey, is there something happening out here.

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Speaker 1: You also had a divided Republican Party and a unified

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Speaker 1: Democratic Party. Eight years later, some of this looks similar.

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Speaker 1: We've had some special elections, there's been some over performance

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Speaker 1: by Democrats. But you have a unified Republican party for

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Speaker 1: the most part, arguably, and it's a divided Democratic party.

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Speaker 1: What are you taking away so far in twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: five and how would you compare it to twenty seventeen.

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Speaker 2: I like that setup, and that was one of my

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Speaker 2: jobs at the Post in twenty seventeen was going to

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Speaker 2: all these these districts for the election being held and

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Speaker 2: Democrats kept coming right up to the end of the race,

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Speaker 2: getting a couple points short of winning. This took me

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Speaker 2: to Montana and to rock Hill, South Carolina, and yeah,

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Speaker 2: there are a bunch of single digit races and Safety's Republicans.

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Speaker 2: The only repetition of history sort of with these Lara

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Speaker 2: races that got out of hand were Democrats raised a

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Speaker 2: ton of money that really not performed by much. The

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Speaker 2: parties are very different than they were eight years ago.

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Speaker 2: I was just talking to colleagues about Eric Schmidt, and

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Speaker 2: I was saying, well, he's won. In the many lists

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Speaker 2: at Missouri Center of Republicans who hold seats that sometimes

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Speaker 2: Trump critics used to hold, there are very few left.

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Speaker 2: We were down to the point where Tom Massey is

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Speaker 2: the most visible Trump critic and that is a huge

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Speaker 2: shift of the window of what's acceptable in the Republican Party.

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Speaker 2: We all in the media the universe changes, but we

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Speaker 2: use the same terms like centrist and moderate and pragmat

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Speaker 2: et cetera to define the party. And a modern rep

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Speaker 2: look in at this point is somebody who doesn't really

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Speaker 2: criticize Trump, but maybia votes against some of his nominees sometimes,

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Speaker 2: and eight years ago it was somebody like Bob Corker

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Speaker 2: who is trying to slow the agenda down or voting

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Speaker 2: against it. So they're there, and they also have a

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Speaker 2: vision of governments, which there are still lots of liberals

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Speaker 2: I think who criticize it and say it's all based

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Speaker 2: on Trump's adjuta and what his biases were from twenty

438
00:23:42,160 --> 00:23:45,120
Speaker 2: years ago. He's obsessed with Japan and the trade deficit.

439
00:23:45,840 --> 00:23:47,760
Speaker 2: They're all in on it, and they also have a

440
00:23:47,840 --> 00:23:52,120
Speaker 2: vision of the country that is understandable. I could sum up, Okay,

441
00:23:52,119 --> 00:23:56,400
Speaker 2: if Republicans get everything they want, total stopped, integration, prices

442
00:23:56,440 --> 00:23:58,600
Speaker 2: go down for zero some reasons. I'm not saying that's right.

443
00:23:58,640 --> 00:24:03,000
Speaker 2: I'm saying that's what the vision is. A smaller welfare state.

444
00:24:03,119 --> 00:24:05,879
Speaker 2: You have to work harder to be part of a

445
00:24:05,960 --> 00:24:09,320
Speaker 2: foreign policy. We're paying more attention to the Western hemisphere

446
00:24:09,359 --> 00:24:11,959
Speaker 2: than the rest of the world, except when you want

447
00:24:12,000 --> 00:24:13,720
Speaker 2: to know about these prize and you need to bomb Ran.

448
00:24:14,840 --> 00:24:18,560
Speaker 2: But the Democratic vision, and for all the burbiage they

449
00:24:18,600 --> 00:24:21,080
Speaker 2: spent about this, their problem is for the first time

450
00:24:21,119 --> 00:24:23,639
Speaker 2: since nineteen eighty, they had a failed presidency and they

451
00:24:23,680 --> 00:24:26,240
Speaker 2: had a chance to try out their version of how

452
00:24:26,240 --> 00:24:28,440
Speaker 2: the world should work, their vision of what America is.

453
00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:30,600
Speaker 2: People didn't like it. I don't think they've made peace

454
00:24:30,640 --> 00:24:32,160
Speaker 2: with that, and I don't think they have a coherent

455
00:24:32,560 --> 00:24:34,760
Speaker 2: vision that makes sense to people because it's not credible.

456
00:24:34,800 --> 00:24:38,600
Speaker 2: They just had Joe Biden. Theyve American people, They had

457
00:24:38,600 --> 00:24:42,320
Speaker 2: a president try kinesy and stimulus in the economy. It

458
00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:44,639
Speaker 2: led to some inflation. They don't like it, you know,

459
00:24:44,680 --> 00:24:47,159
Speaker 2: need to overcomplicate. I think just that this is the

460
00:24:47,240 --> 00:24:50,320
Speaker 2: least credible Democrats have been on a number of areas.

461
00:24:50,760 --> 00:24:53,199
Speaker 2: And it's not even like whack the mall. They have

462
00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:56,280
Speaker 2: a whackable board. They're like hitting even the mallet to

463
00:24:56,320 --> 00:24:58,199
Speaker 2: hit the headboard instead of the moles. They're really not

464
00:24:58,480 --> 00:25:01,240
Speaker 2: attacking any of the problems they had because it would

465
00:25:01,280 --> 00:25:04,160
Speaker 2: start with saying, like Trump said in twenty fifteen, Hey,

466
00:25:04,200 --> 00:25:06,200
Speaker 2: the Republican Party is terrible and it's screwed up, and

467
00:25:06,640 --> 00:25:08,320
Speaker 2: I'm not gonna apologize. I'm just going to make fun

468
00:25:08,359 --> 00:25:10,240
Speaker 2: of them, say here's a different vision. They don't add that.

469
00:25:10,280 --> 00:25:12,240
Speaker 2: They don't have anyone doing that. No.

470
00:25:12,440 --> 00:25:16,160
Speaker 1: I was talking with Solissa earlier today in our weekly pod,

471
00:25:16,200 --> 00:25:18,680
Speaker 1: and I compared it to because you know, when you

472
00:25:18,680 --> 00:25:21,000
Speaker 1: look at the Wall Street Journal poll that I've sort

473
00:25:21,040 --> 00:25:23,600
Speaker 1: of gone inside out of and just sort of, yeah,

474
00:25:24,800 --> 00:25:28,280
Speaker 1: crawled in every nook and cranny of it, what I

475
00:25:28,760 --> 00:25:31,320
Speaker 1: see is where two things can be true at the

476
00:25:31,320 --> 00:25:35,040
Speaker 1: same time, which is the Trump agenda is baggage for

477
00:25:35,080 --> 00:25:38,639
Speaker 1: the Republican Party hard stop. A Democratic party is even

478
00:25:38,680 --> 00:25:42,040
Speaker 1: more unpopular than the Republican Party right now. What does

479
00:25:42,040 --> 00:25:45,280
Speaker 1: that mean for the midterms? Well, I go back and

480
00:25:45,280 --> 00:25:46,840
Speaker 1: I'm going to go in the way back machine, and

481
00:25:46,880 --> 00:25:48,440
Speaker 1: my apologies for that, but I'm gonna go back to

482
00:25:48,480 --> 00:25:49,520
Speaker 1: the eighty six midterms.

483
00:25:49,880 --> 00:25:51,840
Speaker 2: I love the machine. Let's hang out there.

484
00:25:51,920 --> 00:25:55,040
Speaker 1: Yeah, you know, the eighty six midterms are like, are

485
00:25:55,280 --> 00:26:00,560
Speaker 1: exactly the potential model for Democrats where they have this success,

486
00:26:00,720 --> 00:26:04,040
Speaker 1: they win the Senate back at the time it was

487
00:26:04,080 --> 00:26:06,280
Speaker 1: the Senate that was what they thought they could win back.

488
00:26:06,280 --> 00:26:08,040
Speaker 1: They already had the House that was back during the

489
00:26:08,600 --> 00:26:11,000
Speaker 1: middle of their forty year run, so the Senate was

490
00:26:11,040 --> 00:26:14,119
Speaker 1: really what the midterms were about. And you know, they

491
00:26:14,160 --> 00:26:16,159
Speaker 1: had a front runner presidential candidate at the time and

492
00:26:16,200 --> 00:26:18,320
Speaker 1: Gary Hart, so that it looked like.

493
00:26:18,240 --> 00:26:19,200
Speaker 2: They were on the march.

494
00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:22,720
Speaker 1: Right, they win the Senate, hearts, candidacy collapses, it turns

495
00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:25,280
Speaker 1: into a free for all, and the Democratic Party gets

496
00:26:25,280 --> 00:26:28,520
Speaker 1: whacked again right by eighty eight, And I could easily

497
00:26:28,560 --> 00:26:32,239
Speaker 1: see both things happening. Democrats narrowly sort of winning the midterms, right,

498
00:26:32,280 --> 00:26:35,159
Speaker 1: getting the House, maybe netting a Senate seat, you know,

499
00:26:35,880 --> 00:26:38,760
Speaker 1: not quite winning the Senate, but sort of looking like

500
00:26:38,840 --> 00:26:42,960
Speaker 1: they moved, you know, they moved the ball forward, only

501
00:26:43,000 --> 00:26:46,560
Speaker 1: to see the divides in the party just totally unravel

502
00:26:46,640 --> 00:26:51,840
Speaker 1: them in twenty eight. So that's a model that I've

503
00:26:51,840 --> 00:26:54,119
Speaker 1: been you know, is it You could picture the Democrats

504
00:26:54,200 --> 00:26:56,399
Speaker 1: learning the wrong lessons that their success When when you

505
00:26:56,400 --> 00:26:59,080
Speaker 1: look at that Wall Street Journal poll, you had a

506
00:26:59,440 --> 00:27:01,760
Speaker 1: huge majority saying that they don't think Congress is pushing

507
00:27:01,800 --> 00:27:05,160
Speaker 1: back hard enough on the president. You have unpopularity there,

508
00:27:05,200 --> 00:27:07,760
Speaker 1: So you see how you can run an anti campaign

509
00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:10,119
Speaker 1: and win in the midterms, but it doesn't do anything

510
00:27:10,119 --> 00:27:12,280
Speaker 1: to improve the Democratic brand going into twenty eight.

511
00:27:13,000 --> 00:27:14,760
Speaker 2: Yes, and I was just talking about how that brand

512
00:27:14,800 --> 00:27:17,320
Speaker 2: is affected by the actual record of the party. I

513
00:27:17,320 --> 00:27:19,520
Speaker 2: don't think the Democrats like hearing that because they'll say, well,

514
00:27:19,520 --> 00:27:21,359
Speaker 2: what was the Trump record in twenty twenty. We just

515
00:27:21,359 --> 00:27:24,240
Speaker 2: had we had a we had a pandemic and budget

516
00:27:24,400 --> 00:27:27,280
Speaker 2: and he got fired. Yes, like that's the thing.

517
00:27:27,520 --> 00:27:30,119
Speaker 1: Like the public didn't like it. You're right, and guess

518
00:27:30,160 --> 00:27:31,520
Speaker 1: what they didn't like you either.

519
00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:35,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, and Trump came up with something I think basically unrepeatable,

520
00:27:35,400 --> 00:27:38,359
Speaker 2: which is, well, I was stinnied as president and the

521
00:27:38,400 --> 00:27:40,520
Speaker 2: deep state stopped me from doing what I really would

522
00:27:40,560 --> 00:27:42,560
Speaker 2: have done, and I could have fixed it. And I'm

523
00:27:42,560 --> 00:27:44,200
Speaker 2: still a little bit to run again. So life pull

524
00:27:44,240 --> 00:27:48,360
Speaker 2: this off. And yes, in theory, Bill, I suppose Joe

525
00:27:48,359 --> 00:27:51,320
Speaker 2: Biden isn't only living Democratic to try that. Give me,

526
00:27:51,520 --> 00:27:54,840
Speaker 2: give me one more shot this that's not going to happen. No, really,

527
00:27:54,920 --> 00:28:01,600
Speaker 2: they they Italy holler bien. Yeah, but that's I start

528
00:28:01,600 --> 00:28:04,840
Speaker 2: with the Democrats problems because yeah, I've done my way

529
00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:07,879
Speaker 2: back machine visit was I read Outcrum's memoir of creating

530
00:28:07,880 --> 00:28:11,120
Speaker 2: the Democratic Leadership Council, which when I started out reporting,

531
00:28:11,160 --> 00:28:13,560
Speaker 2: which really was writing my own stories two thousand and

532
00:28:13,560 --> 00:28:14,480
Speaker 2: four ars or dous and five.

533
00:28:14,680 --> 00:28:17,840
Speaker 1: Oh, that was at the peak anti DLC craz Yes,

534
00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:19,520
Speaker 1: a the beginning of that.

535
00:28:19,840 --> 00:28:23,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, and the mindset at the time, And a lot

536
00:28:23,359 --> 00:28:26,280
Speaker 2: of this comes from this Democrat the democrats belief in

537
00:28:26,960 --> 00:28:31,480
Speaker 2: democratic demographic destiny, which they stopped believing in, was why

538
00:28:31,560 --> 00:28:33,240
Speaker 2: do we have to do that. There's a lot of

539
00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:37,359
Speaker 2: you know, J. K. Chesterton's fence, the old analogy, if

540
00:28:37,400 --> 00:28:39,920
Speaker 2: there's a if there's an offense somewhere, you don't know

541
00:28:40,280 --> 00:28:42,239
Speaker 2: the reason. If you understand why it was put up,

542
00:28:42,240 --> 00:28:43,720
Speaker 2: you can't just tear it down. There must have been

543
00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:46,120
Speaker 2: some reason. That's what happened with the DLCs. A lot

544
00:28:46,160 --> 00:28:48,480
Speaker 2: of Democrats came into the process at the end of

545
00:28:48,480 --> 00:28:51,760
Speaker 2: the Bush years and said this, this is a disaster.

546
00:28:51,920 --> 00:28:55,920
Speaker 2: There's all these wimpy moderate Democrats or conservative Democrats who

547
00:28:56,000 --> 00:28:58,280
Speaker 2: voted for the disaster, voting for George W. Bush's war.

548
00:28:58,680 --> 00:29:00,080
Speaker 2: Why do we do that in the first place, we

549
00:29:00,080 --> 00:29:02,280
Speaker 2: can build a new majority. Then Brock Obama did it,

550
00:29:02,360 --> 00:29:06,320
Speaker 2: and it's ten years of let's repeat the Obama experiment,

551
00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:10,400
Speaker 2: the experiment, let's repeat the Obama map. We can, we

552
00:29:10,440 --> 00:29:13,360
Speaker 2: can do it, we can. We can lose by attrition

553
00:29:13,520 --> 00:29:17,479
Speaker 2: working class voters because they're being replaced over time. That

554
00:29:17,520 --> 00:29:19,960
Speaker 2: doesn't end not to get into the entirest to last

555
00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:21,720
Speaker 2: a couple of years. That's what happened to the DLC.

556
00:29:22,520 --> 00:29:25,360
Speaker 2: That book's useful because they were doing things that wouldn't

557
00:29:25,400 --> 00:29:28,960
Speaker 2: work anymore. They It was a very media focused narrative.

558
00:29:29,000 --> 00:29:31,560
Speaker 2: Focus the narrative, and by narrative, I mean it was

559
00:29:31,600 --> 00:29:35,560
Speaker 2: built for a time when Americans read basically, if they

560
00:29:35,600 --> 00:29:38,080
Speaker 2: didn't read or watch the same news outlets, it was

561
00:29:38,120 --> 00:29:40,400
Speaker 2: understood those new dead let's had the power to shape

562
00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:41,840
Speaker 2: the storylines.

563
00:29:41,880 --> 00:29:44,520
Speaker 1: And so the deal news magazines had they were I

564
00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:46,600
Speaker 1: always said they were the social media of our time.

565
00:29:46,840 --> 00:29:49,480
Speaker 1: Who was on the cover of Time and Newsweeks and

566
00:29:49,560 --> 00:29:51,400
Speaker 1: even US News.

567
00:29:50,840 --> 00:29:54,880
Speaker 2: Meant something both pop culturally and politically. Yeah, and I

568
00:29:54,880 --> 00:29:57,080
Speaker 2: guess I'm I'm in the media, so everything I think

569
00:29:57,080 --> 00:29:59,120
Speaker 2: the media is important. But but no, it's is every

570
00:29:59,120 --> 00:30:01,680
Speaker 2: Democrats trying to figure out how to live in this

571
00:30:01,800 --> 00:30:04,200
Speaker 2: environment where you can get the most glowing profile of

572
00:30:04,240 --> 00:30:07,080
Speaker 2: what you did in Time magazine and it doesn't matter

573
00:30:07,120 --> 00:30:09,560
Speaker 2: because you looked really embarrassing in an online video that

574
00:30:09,640 --> 00:30:11,800
Speaker 2: got shared a lot of times. So the DLC would

575
00:30:11,840 --> 00:30:13,760
Speaker 2: have these meetings around the country and say, Okay, we've

576
00:30:13,760 --> 00:30:16,920
Speaker 2: got Bill Clinton, We've got Bruce Babbott, we've got Mike

577
00:30:16,960 --> 00:30:19,640
Speaker 2: Dukakkas Speed part of some of these meet these young

578
00:30:19,720 --> 00:30:22,800
Speaker 2: future Democrats who have new ideas and reporters would come

579
00:30:22,840 --> 00:30:25,680
Speaker 2: to them and they meet the Democrats. Donors would come.

580
00:30:26,120 --> 00:30:30,280
Speaker 2: There was just you could build a momentum through this discourse.

581
00:30:30,320 --> 00:30:33,000
Speaker 2: And that discourse has shattered. We're on a podcast. That's

582
00:30:33,040 --> 00:30:36,080
Speaker 2: another example of how all you could do. Actually going

583
00:30:36,160 --> 00:30:37,600
Speaker 2: to go back, if you really wanted to do this,

584
00:30:37,720 --> 00:30:40,440
Speaker 2: go to your go research every David brodercolumn and then

585
00:30:40,520 --> 00:30:43,320
Speaker 2: from nineteen eighty five to nineteen ninety and it would

586
00:30:43,320 --> 00:30:47,040
Speaker 2: be a parade of new kind of Democrat, new kind

587
00:30:47,080 --> 00:30:49,520
Speaker 2: of democrat, new kind of democrat.

588
00:30:49,080 --> 00:30:51,640
Speaker 1: You know, And it was all about that, you know.

589
00:30:51,920 --> 00:30:55,080
Speaker 1: It was all these governors, right, and the Southern governors.

590
00:30:55,120 --> 00:30:55,280
Speaker 2: You know.

591
00:30:55,280 --> 00:30:57,640
Speaker 1: I always say Bill Clinton's presidency was supposed to be

592
00:30:57,760 --> 00:31:01,960
Speaker 1: Chuck Robb's presidency, right. It was all the entire the

593
00:31:02,440 --> 00:31:06,240
Speaker 1: entire delegate selection process, the creation of super delegates, right,

594
00:31:06,480 --> 00:31:10,040
Speaker 1: the Stop Jesse Jackson movement. It was all designed to

595
00:31:10,080 --> 00:31:12,160
Speaker 1: help the southern governors. And at the time it was

596
00:31:12,280 --> 00:31:16,040
Speaker 1: lbj son in law Chuck Rob governor of Virginia, that

597
00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:18,440
Speaker 1: everybody assumed would be the great beneficiary.

598
00:31:18,680 --> 00:31:21,640
Speaker 2: Why because Chuck Rob lived in the Washington DC media market,

599
00:31:21,680 --> 00:31:22,480
Speaker 2: is what I always say.

600
00:31:22,600 --> 00:31:25,360
Speaker 1: So it gave him this sort of perceived leg up

601
00:31:25,440 --> 00:31:29,480
Speaker 1: on perception, and then of course he turned out not

602
00:31:29,520 --> 00:31:31,920
Speaker 1: to be a very good politician. This is pre scandal forget.

603
00:31:32,160 --> 00:31:34,200
Speaker 1: He just wasn't that good at this. He was a

604
00:31:34,240 --> 00:31:38,200
Speaker 1: great he was a resume guy. But Bill Clinton and

605
00:31:38,240 --> 00:31:42,120
Speaker 1: frankly Michael Dukakas in eighty eight both benefited from the

606
00:31:42,200 --> 00:31:45,680
Speaker 1: Super Tuesday organization, which was a total DLC. You know,

607
00:31:45,840 --> 00:31:48,800
Speaker 1: the DLC was also tactical. They knew that if they

608
00:31:48,880 --> 00:31:52,120
Speaker 1: created Southern Super Tuesday, it was a way to insulate

609
00:31:52,200 --> 00:31:56,040
Speaker 1: them from a super lefty becoming the nominee.

610
00:31:56,720 --> 00:32:00,480
Speaker 2: Yes, and that infrastructure obviously is completely different, and the

611
00:32:00,520 --> 00:32:05,040
Speaker 2: media they're operating is completely different. The fractal I've been

612
00:32:05,040 --> 00:32:07,880
Speaker 2: paying attention to to just see how different this is.

613
00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:11,000
Speaker 2: It's isolate. One thing Democrats are trying to do. There

614
00:32:11,080 --> 00:32:16,120
Speaker 2: is a very stop start conversation they're having about, let's

615
00:32:16,120 --> 00:32:19,440
Speaker 2: just call it the Biden administration's position on gender and

616
00:32:19,480 --> 00:32:24,760
Speaker 2: transgender rights and the sword version, which i nick The

617
00:32:24,800 --> 00:32:27,320
Speaker 2: New York Times had had a very very long piece

618
00:32:27,360 --> 00:32:31,040
Speaker 2: based on scrimmitting decisions outcome that gets into this history.

619
00:32:31,360 --> 00:32:34,360
Speaker 2: But basically Trump Biden says trans right to be a

620
00:32:34,360 --> 00:32:37,680
Speaker 2: civil rights station of our time. He reverses a lot

621
00:32:37,720 --> 00:32:41,560
Speaker 2: of the Obama Sorry, Obama starts to be more accepting

622
00:32:41,680 --> 00:32:45,480
Speaker 2: of trans people. Gender is a septacritical working sex. Trump

623
00:32:45,560 --> 00:32:49,520
Speaker 2: undoes it. Biden puts it back into effect. Trump unwinds

624
00:32:49,560 --> 00:32:52,840
Speaker 2: it all, and there's this very stop start conversation about

625
00:32:53,120 --> 00:32:55,920
Speaker 2: did Democrats was that a mistake? Did Democrats need to

626
00:32:55,960 --> 00:32:59,360
Speaker 2: rethink this? The way it's being done is that occasionally

627
00:32:59,440 --> 00:33:02,400
Speaker 2: a Democrat will get asked a question about some aspect

628
00:33:02,440 --> 00:33:05,200
Speaker 2: of this issue, not the every Biden executive order, but

629
00:33:05,840 --> 00:33:09,160
Speaker 2: the sports aspect of the issue, and a Senator or

630
00:33:09,200 --> 00:33:13,160
Speaker 2: a Congressman We'll get asked and they'll say what they think.

631
00:33:13,400 --> 00:33:16,640
Speaker 2: They'll get piled on by tre be majority, but just

632
00:33:17,280 --> 00:33:21,320
Speaker 2: every every group in this space, human rights campaign. I'm

633
00:33:21,360 --> 00:33:24,680
Speaker 2: glad the new groups like Christopher Street Project will come

634
00:33:24,680 --> 00:33:28,200
Speaker 2: in and say this person is betraying our movement. No

635
00:33:28,240 --> 00:33:30,400
Speaker 2: one can lead our party. And also what fort lab

636
00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:32,520
Speaker 2: They'll say, and they're weak. This is weakness. This is

637
00:33:32,560 --> 00:33:35,920
Speaker 2: the Democrat who is responding to defeat by abandoning a

638
00:33:35,960 --> 00:33:39,720
Speaker 2: section of party. Won't they abandon? What is next? And

639
00:33:40,080 --> 00:33:43,720
Speaker 2: they're they I've not seen people respond to that by

640
00:33:43,920 --> 00:33:46,280
Speaker 2: saying I was I was wrong. We're giving a new

641
00:33:46,320 --> 00:33:48,640
Speaker 2: interview and saying I was completely right. They just don't

642
00:33:48,680 --> 00:33:52,440
Speaker 2: come at again. Ruby Guyego went through this, the Santra Arizona,

643
00:33:53,400 --> 00:33:56,480
Speaker 2: Seth Molton went through this. Massachusetts, there's the there's a

644
00:33:56,560 --> 00:34:01,200
Speaker 2: very good reporter, Oreana Gonzalez that notice, who's been doing

645
00:34:01,240 --> 00:34:03,720
Speaker 2: iterative stories about House Democrats trying to come up with

646
00:34:03,760 --> 00:34:07,200
Speaker 2: some position, but they're not having the conversation in public.

647
00:34:07,240 --> 00:34:09,200
Speaker 2: And the DLC had a lot of conversations in public.

648
00:34:09,239 --> 00:34:11,560
Speaker 2: And this is the hardest one because they are just

649
00:34:11,640 --> 00:34:13,759
Speaker 2: parents every day affected by this issue. I'd bring up

650
00:34:13,760 --> 00:34:17,399
Speaker 2: the hardest one because it's the one that I've seen

651
00:34:17,480 --> 00:34:20,840
Speaker 2: Democrats touch the stove and pull it away from the vassist.

652
00:34:20,880 --> 00:34:23,279
Speaker 2: But you could say the same for immigration. Immigration is

653
00:34:23,280 --> 00:34:28,040
Speaker 2: even stranger because now today Nearri Canna has an article

654
00:34:28,200 --> 00:34:30,040
Speaker 2: in the Wall Street Journal about how they're going forward.

655
00:34:30,520 --> 00:34:33,240
Speaker 2: But there's no Democrat who's come out and said very clearly,

656
00:34:33,280 --> 00:34:35,480
Speaker 2: here's I'm giving a speech and a place where reporters

657
00:34:35,480 --> 00:34:39,279
Speaker 2: will be. Biden was a disaster. He let our party down,

658
00:34:39,320 --> 00:34:42,200
Speaker 2: and he was wrong on immigration, and instead here is

659
00:34:42,280 --> 00:34:45,120
Speaker 2: an immigration position that is going to piss off people

660
00:34:45,160 --> 00:34:47,680
Speaker 2: who thought that who believed in one thing, and to

661
00:34:47,920 --> 00:34:51,040
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty, who believed that, for example, that asylum

662
00:34:51,120 --> 00:34:53,120
Speaker 2: is the human rights which is a sign that a

663
00:34:53,120 --> 00:34:57,120
Speaker 2: lot of Democrats campaign behind. Literally, they're not doing that.

664
00:34:57,680 --> 00:34:59,560
Speaker 2: I'm going to float something in Interview'm going to float

665
00:34:59,560 --> 00:35:02,320
Speaker 2: into the pod. They would notice, Well, hopefully some people notice.

666
00:35:02,440 --> 00:35:05,440
Speaker 2: It is very hesitant and odd, and you can trust

667
00:35:05,440 --> 00:35:08,400
Speaker 2: that with Republicans and Trump, Trump can say something and

668
00:35:08,400 --> 00:35:10,919
Speaker 2: then there is a discourse around when Trump is saying,

669
00:35:11,040 --> 00:35:12,920
Speaker 2: do you Republicans agree with Trump? And they not agree

670
00:35:12,960 --> 00:35:15,520
Speaker 2: with him. He just put out our new position on

671
00:35:15,920 --> 00:35:18,520
Speaker 2: trade or on whatever it is, or whatever it is,

672
00:35:18,960 --> 00:35:20,799
Speaker 2: and it's not like I didn't go off in question

673
00:35:20,880 --> 00:35:22,760
Speaker 2: gets asked, oh, well, who's the leader of the party.

674
00:35:22,960 --> 00:35:25,359
Speaker 2: That's the same of the DLC. You know, need a leader,

675
00:35:25,400 --> 00:35:28,160
Speaker 2: You needed just some sort of coherent network that was

676
00:35:28,160 --> 00:35:31,399
Speaker 2: having a conversation that people understood was a conversation about

677
00:35:31,400 --> 00:35:33,640
Speaker 2: the party. You also had the progressive of the Jesse Jackson.

678
00:35:33,719 --> 00:35:36,799
Speaker 2: I'm saying, here's our conversation, here's our populism. It's just

679
00:35:36,840 --> 00:35:39,799
Speaker 2: this very anomized selection of groups. And I say this

680
00:35:39,840 --> 00:35:42,279
Speaker 2: in the reporters. I've just had to build charts of

681
00:35:42,560 --> 00:35:45,640
Speaker 2: which group says which. Because news stories still exists and

682
00:35:45,680 --> 00:35:48,520
Speaker 2: TV's story still exists, you can only quote so many people.

683
00:35:49,000 --> 00:35:52,200
Speaker 2: But it's this total post Tower of Babel cacophony of

684
00:35:52,200 --> 00:35:55,360
Speaker 2: who stands for what in the party and very unclear

685
00:35:55,560 --> 00:35:58,600
Speaker 2: what their position is on anything, because they're not starting with, hey,

686
00:35:58,640 --> 00:36:02,080
Speaker 2: Biden was wrong, here's why he was wrong. I'm willing

687
00:36:02,120 --> 00:36:05,480
Speaker 2: to have Mike Donaldan tell me, I'm i stink. I'm

688
00:36:05,480 --> 00:36:07,560
Speaker 2: willing to have hundred to buy meal. Let me who cares.

689
00:36:07,960 --> 00:36:10,560
Speaker 2: They're not doing that, They're not confronting that they had

690
00:36:10,600 --> 00:36:11,480
Speaker 2: a failed presidency.

691
00:36:12,360 --> 00:36:15,319
Speaker 1: It's a great point and it really gets it. And

692
00:36:15,360 --> 00:36:19,080
Speaker 1: that's the question I've had this conversation. Have the Democrats

693
00:36:19,160 --> 00:36:22,480
Speaker 1: lost enough yet to realize they have to change right.

694
00:36:23,920 --> 00:36:24,560
Speaker 2: Eighty four and.

695
00:36:24,520 --> 00:36:27,920
Speaker 1: Eighty eight, you know, they they tried to make changes,

696
00:36:27,960 --> 00:36:30,960
Speaker 1: and yet they didn't say Carter was a failed presidency

697
00:36:31,280 --> 00:36:33,400
Speaker 1: going in eighty four. How could they They nominated the

698
00:36:33,440 --> 00:36:37,040
Speaker 1: vice president, right, And that was back when Labor really

699
00:36:37,160 --> 00:36:38,200
Speaker 1: was controlling the party.

700
00:36:38,280 --> 00:36:40,600
Speaker 2: Right. Labor was sort of the.

701
00:36:40,000 --> 00:36:43,520
Speaker 1: The They were the bridge, right, they were the force

702
00:36:43,560 --> 00:36:46,719
Speaker 1: that sort of brought factions together because they had the money, right,

703
00:36:46,760 --> 00:36:50,799
Speaker 1: they had the money, and then they could certainly impact primaries.

704
00:36:52,400 --> 00:36:55,120
Speaker 1: And then the DLC is born basically in ninety five

705
00:36:55,160 --> 00:36:57,839
Speaker 1: after the Mondale shellaking. To sort of stay with your

706
00:36:57,840 --> 00:37:02,920
Speaker 1: timeline there and whether if Hart stays who was easily

707
00:37:02,960 --> 00:37:07,640
Speaker 1: sort of the deals Arguably he was DLC ish right,

708
00:37:07,719 --> 00:37:10,279
Speaker 1: because he had both right. He was seen as the

709
00:37:10,320 --> 00:37:13,560
Speaker 1: guy who ran McGovern's campaign in seventy two, who was

710
00:37:13,600 --> 00:37:15,920
Speaker 1: an interventionist and who was like, you know, he was

711
00:37:16,000 --> 00:37:19,200
Speaker 1: not easily and he was this sort of Bill Clinton

712
00:37:20,080 --> 00:37:20,560
Speaker 1: like figure.

713
00:37:20,600 --> 00:37:21,480
Speaker 2: Before Bill Clinton.

714
00:37:21,800 --> 00:37:24,360
Speaker 1: It looked like he had the ability to bridge the

715
00:37:24,480 --> 00:37:27,560
Speaker 1: union part of the party and this sort of Western

716
00:37:27,719 --> 00:37:32,040
Speaker 1: sort of Hey, he's he's a bit cool, right, he's

717
00:37:32,080 --> 00:37:35,960
Speaker 1: warn Baby's friend, you know, and then he collapses and

718
00:37:36,000 --> 00:37:39,600
Speaker 1: then it was then all the factions came back. Labor

719
00:37:39,920 --> 00:37:42,080
Speaker 1: decided to you know, get behind, get part eighty eight

720
00:37:42,080 --> 00:37:42,760
Speaker 1: and all this stuff.

721
00:37:42,880 --> 00:37:46,239
Speaker 2: And it took him. You know, it took two presidential

722
00:37:46,320 --> 00:37:50,640
Speaker 2: shellackings for them to get religion. And arguably they didn't

723
00:37:50,640 --> 00:37:53,080
Speaker 2: even think ninety you know, most of the major figures

724
00:37:53,120 --> 00:37:56,919
Speaker 2: of the party conceded ninety two early on, thinking that

725
00:37:56,920 --> 00:37:59,239
Speaker 2: that was a useless exercise to try to knock off

726
00:37:59,239 --> 00:38:01,920
Speaker 2: the sitting president. And then lo and behold, Bill Clinton

727
00:38:01,920 --> 00:38:03,640
Speaker 2: showed that there was a way to do this. I

728
00:38:03,680 --> 00:38:06,239
Speaker 2: want to pick up on something on immigration because the

729
00:38:06,239 --> 00:38:09,040
Speaker 2: Wall Street Journal poll and I think this is the

730
00:38:09,440 --> 00:38:12,719
Speaker 2: you why is Trump's numbers starting to go upside down

731
00:38:12,760 --> 00:38:13,360
Speaker 2: on immigration?

732
00:38:14,000 --> 00:38:17,920
Speaker 1: Because there really is two distinct features of the issue.

733
00:38:18,719 --> 00:38:22,640
Speaker 1: Border security is what people wanted, and that was the

734
00:38:22,680 --> 00:38:25,680
Speaker 1: massive failure of the Biden administration, and that has been

735
00:38:25,960 --> 00:38:29,920
Speaker 1: the initial success and what people wanted from Trump when

736
00:38:30,000 --> 00:38:31,920
Speaker 1: you ask and I saw that the Wall Street Journal

737
00:38:32,000 --> 00:38:35,120
Speaker 1: did a split sample asking Trump's job rating on immigration,

738
00:38:35,200 --> 00:38:37,400
Speaker 1: and then they did half sample Trump's job rating on

739
00:38:37,520 --> 00:38:42,040
Speaker 1: illegal immigration. His numbers were better in dealing with illegal immigration.

740
00:38:42,160 --> 00:38:44,840
Speaker 1: His numbers were worse when it was just immigration. It

741
00:38:44,880 --> 00:38:47,719
Speaker 1: turns out what the country wanted was they didn't like

742
00:38:47,760 --> 00:38:50,480
Speaker 1: the chaos at the border. Yeah, they didn't mean they

743
00:38:50,520 --> 00:38:52,280
Speaker 1: wanted to get rid of every migrant in the country.

744
00:38:52,680 --> 00:38:56,080
Speaker 1: And I think that that's the opening here. And ironically,

745
00:38:56,440 --> 00:39:00,359
Speaker 1: that was the Democratic position under Obama. Tough on the ball, order,

746
00:39:01,160 --> 00:39:04,120
Speaker 1: lenient on my and fought pathway to citizenship for people

747
00:39:04,200 --> 00:39:06,879
Speaker 1: already here. And it turned out that's a fifty five

748
00:39:06,920 --> 00:39:10,680
Speaker 1: to sixty percent agreement message. And for some reason, I

749
00:39:10,719 --> 00:39:13,279
Speaker 1: go back, it's a debate I moderated. I go back

750
00:39:13,280 --> 00:39:16,759
Speaker 1: to that first debate where they decriminalize, where everybody on

751
00:39:16,800 --> 00:39:20,080
Speaker 1: stage but Joe Biden and one other wanted to decriminalize

752
00:39:20,080 --> 00:39:22,200
Speaker 1: the border, and You're like, oh my god.

753
00:39:22,239 --> 00:39:23,719
Speaker 2: It was like they were all high in their own

754
00:39:23,719 --> 00:39:27,600
Speaker 2: supply in that moment. Yeah, I think that that's the

755
00:39:27,600 --> 00:39:31,000
Speaker 2: immigration just conversation I'm talking about. It was try's so

756
00:39:31,120 --> 00:39:34,040
Speaker 2: fourth and how that's gotten further. It's been interesting to

757
00:39:34,040 --> 00:39:36,239
Speaker 2: watch Frank Sherry, who was at Family's USA for a

758
00:39:36,239 --> 00:39:39,280
Speaker 2: long time, say, yeah, the movement got over its skis

759
00:39:39,320 --> 00:39:42,640
Speaker 2: on this and this is one of Trump's strengths and

760
00:39:42,640 --> 00:39:45,040
Speaker 2: I'm trying to put it in the right way. Is

761
00:39:45,880 --> 00:39:49,200
Speaker 2: sometimes you do something and it's unpopular and it's extreme,

762
00:39:49,280 --> 00:39:51,200
Speaker 2: and it backfires and you're just credit. No one does

763
00:39:51,200 --> 00:39:53,759
Speaker 2: it again. This is Sam brown Back in Kansas. A

764
00:39:53,800 --> 00:39:55,799
Speaker 2: Reblicans still can't win a governor Grace in Kansas because

765
00:39:55,840 --> 00:39:58,400
Speaker 2: it is tax plant sage disaster. Trump has done some

766
00:39:58,560 --> 00:40:00,600
Speaker 2: things that I think it's the third pause. Nobody's going

767
00:40:00,640 --> 00:40:03,000
Speaker 2: to like Obamacare. It can be hacked away at, but

768
00:40:03,000 --> 00:40:06,879
Speaker 2: nobody's running out your failing anymore. But he's also done

769
00:40:06,920 --> 00:40:10,400
Speaker 2: some things where he his response is so angering to progressive,

770
00:40:13,000 --> 00:40:18,479
Speaker 2: attacked so many of their political no just I would

771
00:40:18,520 --> 00:40:21,879
Speaker 2: say what they think is American period, that they will

772
00:40:21,880 --> 00:40:25,440
Speaker 2: overreact and with immigration, that's what happened is there's a

773
00:40:25,480 --> 00:40:26,960
Speaker 2: lot of Democrats and the thing you said about two

774
00:40:26,960 --> 00:40:29,440
Speaker 2: thousand and eight, the Democrats in this space the sort

775
00:40:29,480 --> 00:40:31,879
Speaker 2: of way to share a Metagalasius types. They often will say,

776
00:40:31,920 --> 00:40:34,000
Speaker 2: just go back to two as an eight twenty twelve

777
00:40:34,040 --> 00:40:36,680
Speaker 2: Obama he said things that Democrats don't say anymore, and

778
00:40:36,680 --> 00:40:43,040
Speaker 2: they were popular and Democrats voted for offense. Right, you

779
00:40:43,040 --> 00:40:44,719
Speaker 2: could call it a wall. It is a defense. Is

780
00:40:44,760 --> 00:40:48,719
Speaker 2: a wall? Yo, Read the language and the platform, because

781
00:40:48,719 --> 00:40:50,560
Speaker 2: I've talked to some people are in the democratic polling

782
00:40:50,960 --> 00:40:54,680
Speaker 2: and data space who've just gone back and looked a

783
00:40:54,719 --> 00:40:56,879
Speaker 2: platforn You can look at a platform language with somebody

784
00:40:56,880 --> 00:40:59,239
Speaker 2: with a time to just do regression and say what

785
00:40:59,280 --> 00:41:01,800
Speaker 2: words drop out out, what words come in the party

786
00:41:01,800 --> 00:41:05,320
Speaker 2: just gets much more optimistic about its future and cannot

787
00:41:05,360 --> 00:41:11,560
Speaker 2: imagine a backsliding which has already happened to something that is,

788
00:41:11,680 --> 00:41:16,879
Speaker 2: let's say, backsliding to a right wing country. I'm trying

789
00:41:16,960 --> 00:41:19,920
Speaker 2: not to try to overegg what I'm saying now. The

790
00:41:19,960 --> 00:41:24,000
Speaker 2: Trump thing on immigration is he's president. He starting to

791
00:41:24,000 --> 00:41:26,000
Speaker 2: tries to build a wall. There's a Republican division on that,

792
00:41:26,040 --> 00:41:28,360
Speaker 2: and Tom Tillis, who's retiring when the Republicans wh complains

793
00:41:28,360 --> 00:41:31,879
Speaker 2: about a moving military money to fund the wall. He

794
00:41:32,360 --> 00:41:37,400
Speaker 2: has very visible deportation facilities. Those are unpopular. There's actually

795
00:41:37,440 --> 00:41:39,879
Speaker 2: the whole remain in Mexico policy in part comes from

796
00:41:39,880 --> 00:41:43,760
Speaker 2: not wanting that imagery of camps because American sea camps

797
00:41:43,760 --> 00:41:46,160
Speaker 2: and they have associations. They don't like to thank that

798
00:41:46,200 --> 00:41:50,879
Speaker 2: the deeps in other countries there's less cameras exactly, and

799
00:41:52,160 --> 00:41:55,240
Speaker 2: then that keeps going. I'm covering the twenty nineteen Democratic

800
00:41:55,280 --> 00:41:58,520
Speaker 2: primary at this point, and that poll will Braves hand Its.

801
00:41:58,560 --> 00:42:01,759
Speaker 2: It is such a great question for Democrats comes from

802
00:42:01,760 --> 00:42:03,520
Speaker 2: this discourse saying how do we prevent this from ever

803
00:42:03,520 --> 00:42:07,839
Speaker 2: happening again? Well, instead of deportation being a criminal, it's

804
00:42:07,840 --> 00:42:10,680
Speaker 2: already a civil ALTI what if it's something even less.

805
00:42:10,680 --> 00:42:12,319
Speaker 2: What if you're just you're allowed to show up and

806
00:42:12,360 --> 00:42:15,600
Speaker 2: say I'm I'm demanding asylum because look at how terrible

807
00:42:15,600 --> 00:42:19,279
Speaker 2: Trump is. This is not America, m E. Lazarus, Poem, etcetera, etc.

808
00:42:20,120 --> 00:42:22,319
Speaker 2: That we need to make sure that no Trump can

809
00:42:22,360 --> 00:42:24,760
Speaker 2: ever happen again. And that's a lot of the Biden

810
00:42:24,840 --> 00:42:27,520
Speaker 2: premise in twenty twenty. I'm going to run Trump will

811
00:42:27,520 --> 00:42:29,960
Speaker 2: be an aberration, This will never happen again. Part of

812
00:42:29,960 --> 00:42:33,239
Speaker 2: that never happened again agenda. Everyone deserves asylum. And so

813
00:42:33,480 --> 00:42:38,280
Speaker 2: they got themselves into a very humanitarian, emotional immigration position

814
00:42:38,800 --> 00:42:42,560
Speaker 2: that they cannot defend. And the result. I mentioned those

815
00:42:42,600 --> 00:42:44,520
Speaker 2: camps because one thing that Trump is doing in this

816
00:42:44,640 --> 00:42:47,360
Speaker 2: term unthinkable last term, going to them, just going to

817
00:42:47,440 --> 00:42:51,000
Speaker 2: the sending Christine home to Salvador, personally, going to Aliger

818
00:42:51,040 --> 00:42:54,040
Speaker 2: Ralpatraz in Florida with this confidence that the country has

819
00:42:54,040 --> 00:42:57,960
Speaker 2: moved so far towards him on immigration and deportation that

820
00:42:58,080 --> 00:43:01,400
Speaker 2: they're going to buy and I have some people merchandise

821
00:43:01,520 --> 00:43:04,920
Speaker 2: from the detention camps. So how did Democrats get in

822
00:43:04,920 --> 00:43:08,439
Speaker 2: that position? They did overreact to Trump and they didn't

823
00:43:08,440 --> 00:43:12,160
Speaker 2: come up with their own coherent immigration policy. That was

824
00:43:12,200 --> 00:43:14,280
Speaker 2: what they were skipping. There was a coherent you're affording

825
00:43:14,320 --> 00:43:17,920
Speaker 2: to it. There was a coherent Obama policy to on order, security, lenient,

826
00:43:17,960 --> 00:43:20,760
Speaker 2: on pathway to citizenship. A question I like to ask

827
00:43:21,000 --> 00:43:22,680
Speaker 2: the Democrats I talked to, like the ones who are

828
00:43:22,760 --> 00:43:25,040
Speaker 2: running for Andy Basher I talked to last week, and

829
00:43:25,040 --> 00:43:28,279
Speaker 2: I'm editing something is I'll ask who deserves to be here?

830
00:43:28,640 --> 00:43:31,640
Speaker 2: Like beyond if you're born in America, you're on the

831
00:43:31,719 --> 00:43:34,279
Speaker 2: process right now getting naturalized. Who else deserves to be

832
00:43:34,320 --> 00:43:38,800
Speaker 2: an American? And the answers have been not. Bascher's answer

833
00:43:38,960 --> 00:43:42,319
Speaker 2: was involving well, you know, it's about the workforce. Well

834
00:43:42,360 --> 00:43:44,440
Speaker 2: even that, that's how they're saying. In twenty nineteen there

835
00:43:44,440 --> 00:43:47,279
Speaker 2: were Democrats and I was saying, we need immigrants here

836
00:43:47,320 --> 00:43:50,080
Speaker 2: for the workforce, and that's it. They were saying, Hey,

837
00:43:50,080 --> 00:43:53,360
Speaker 2: if there are people seeking asylum somewhere. I remember Democrats

838
00:43:53,360 --> 00:43:55,920
Speaker 2: having Trudeau envy because they were watching Justin Trudeau in

839
00:43:55,960 --> 00:43:59,200
Speaker 2: Canada personally welcome Syrian refugees and saying, what if this

840
00:43:59,239 --> 00:44:01,399
Speaker 2: country was like that? What if this country was taking

841
00:44:01,440 --> 00:44:03,600
Speaker 2: in more refugees. We used to be like that. We

842
00:44:03,719 --> 00:44:07,600
Speaker 2: used to be like that during the gerald Ford operation

843
00:44:07,680 --> 00:44:10,839
Speaker 2: that brought people from Vietnam. The country's moved so far

844
00:44:10,920 --> 00:44:13,720
Speaker 2: right because of the backlash to Biden, and the backlash

845
00:44:13,800 --> 00:44:16,600
Speaker 2: was engendered by Fox News et cetera coverage of the border,

846
00:44:18,080 --> 00:44:20,600
Speaker 2: what other areas, So the Democrats not realize that the

847
00:44:20,600 --> 00:44:23,879
Speaker 2: country has moved away from them, because I do think

848
00:44:24,160 --> 00:44:27,319
Speaker 2: both parties storytelling of a lot of politics. But I

849
00:44:27,360 --> 00:44:30,080
Speaker 2: wrote a callum out this Kawisco. In Democrats' minds, the

850
00:44:30,160 --> 00:44:34,480
Speaker 2: way history moves is that something outrageous happens and people

851
00:44:34,480 --> 00:44:37,680
Speaker 2: get up in the streets and protests, and then the

852
00:44:37,719 --> 00:44:41,520
Speaker 2: people who were defending outrageous thing crack down the protesters,

853
00:44:41,719 --> 00:44:43,719
Speaker 2: and the whole country looks at that and says that

854
00:44:43,760 --> 00:44:46,240
Speaker 2: can't happen, and they move on. It never happens again.

855
00:44:46,600 --> 00:44:49,680
Speaker 2: And I'm not trying to impugne Democrats or say that

856
00:44:50,600 --> 00:44:53,080
Speaker 2: just in covering them, listening to the rhetoric a lot

857
00:44:53,080 --> 00:44:55,320
Speaker 2: of their rhetoric assumes that there's going to be a

858
00:44:55,440 --> 00:44:58,319
Speaker 2: selma for the outrage. There's going to this is what

859
00:44:58,360 --> 00:45:01,120
Speaker 2: happened immigration hundred from what happened under this policy, and

860
00:45:01,280 --> 00:45:03,600
Speaker 2: this refugee policy, this is what's going to happen under

861
00:45:03,719 --> 00:45:07,919
Speaker 2: for gender based rights, trans rights, LGBTQ rights. And when

862
00:45:07,920 --> 00:45:10,920
Speaker 2: it doesn't, they seem to be They seem not to

863
00:45:10,960 --> 00:45:14,319
Speaker 2: know what to do with a Republican party that's very

864
00:45:14,400 --> 00:45:18,880
Speaker 2: comfortable saying things that make fun of human suffering. I

865
00:45:18,920 --> 00:45:21,600
Speaker 2: mentioned the detention camps, but there there is a level

866
00:45:21,600 --> 00:45:24,760
Speaker 2: of mockery for the Trump administration that I think borders

867
00:45:24,840 --> 00:45:27,680
Speaker 2: or maybe has gotten on the border of eu bris.

868
00:45:27,800 --> 00:45:30,640
Speaker 2: They definitely look like a Republican party that can't imagine

869
00:45:30,640 --> 00:45:32,640
Speaker 2: losing ever again, which is how you get into trouble.

870
00:45:33,320 --> 00:45:35,520
Speaker 2: They might go back and regret some of the gladness

871
00:45:35,600 --> 00:45:38,400
Speaker 2: with which they talk about these issues. But Democrats, I

872
00:45:38,400 --> 00:45:41,879
Speaker 2: think we're just not ready for a cultural shift away

873
00:45:41,880 --> 00:45:44,160
Speaker 2: from them, and they're looking at these polls and saying

874
00:45:44,160 --> 00:45:47,560
Speaker 2: this poll says that Trump's some unpopular immigration, But what

875
00:45:47,560 --> 00:45:49,600
Speaker 2: does that mean when you come back, it's who deserves

876
00:45:49,640 --> 00:45:51,760
Speaker 2: to be in the country. Correct? When it comes to

877
00:45:51,840 --> 00:45:54,600
Speaker 2: who does what does ender mean in the law, There

878
00:45:54,600 --> 00:45:57,040
Speaker 2: are these tough questions. They just punted because they said, well,

879
00:45:57,560 --> 00:46:00,560
Speaker 2: from it's unpopular, we're going to go I'm not trying

880
00:46:00,600 --> 00:46:02,120
Speaker 2: to ramb I'm just trying to bring things together. Same

881
00:46:02,120 --> 00:46:04,600
Speaker 2: thing with gender happened. A lot of the movement on

882
00:46:05,160 --> 00:46:08,719
Speaker 2: people's acceptance of trans rights was not a lot some

883
00:46:08,800 --> 00:46:11,279
Speaker 2: of it was driven by Trump, by people saying, why

884
00:46:11,360 --> 00:46:13,360
Speaker 2: is he being so cruel to people who are trans

885
00:46:13,360 --> 00:46:15,200
Speaker 2: and just want to live their lives? Sert of a

886
00:46:15,200 --> 00:46:16,000
Speaker 2: military the.

887
00:46:15,960 --> 00:46:20,000
Speaker 1: Libertarian look, we are Americans are libertarian. Americans are always

888
00:46:20,000 --> 00:46:23,040
Speaker 1: been libertarian on social issues, like even no matter when

889
00:46:23,080 --> 00:46:24,919
Speaker 1: you push it, both on the right and the left,

890
00:46:25,000 --> 00:46:27,240
Speaker 1: so that ultimately say hey, don't be cruel to people.

891
00:46:27,640 --> 00:46:28,359
Speaker 2: Live and let live.

892
00:46:28,400 --> 00:46:32,960
Speaker 1: There's live and let live is mostly usually one out

893
00:46:33,080 --> 00:46:36,520
Speaker 1: over time. Right, the ark of cultural stuff is always

894
00:46:36,520 --> 00:46:42,040
Speaker 1: bent towards that. And you know, it's sort of like,

895
00:46:42,080 --> 00:46:45,879
Speaker 1: why is Caitlin General a Republican? I think people need

896
00:46:46,000 --> 00:46:49,400
Speaker 1: like Democrats not ask themselves. Why is Caitlyn Jener a Republican?

897
00:46:50,360 --> 00:46:51,400
Speaker 2: You know, the live and.

898
00:46:51,440 --> 00:46:57,080
Speaker 1: Let live part, But she's not asking to compete in

899
00:46:57,160 --> 00:47:00,719
Speaker 1: women's sports, Right, Like, there's this is the line the

900
00:47:00,719 --> 00:47:03,680
Speaker 1: country's at, which is, hey, you live your life, how

901
00:47:03,719 --> 00:47:06,920
Speaker 1: you live your life. But right, that seems to be

902
00:47:06,920 --> 00:47:12,239
Speaker 1: where the majority position is. I wonder is this the

903
00:47:12,640 --> 00:47:16,239
Speaker 1: so famously Bill Clinton was pro death penalty at a

904
00:47:16,280 --> 00:47:19,160
Speaker 1: time when the party was not, and he of course

905
00:47:19,560 --> 00:47:23,440
Speaker 1: infamously put somebody to death. Went back Ricky Rector I

906
00:47:23,480 --> 00:47:26,080
Speaker 1: think was his name. My memory serves Rectory.

907
00:47:26,239 --> 00:47:31,680
Speaker 2: Yeah, yeah, and it's a very I think it was

908
00:47:31,719 --> 00:47:34,520
Speaker 2: a explosive because he didn't need to go back to Arkansas,

909
00:47:34,640 --> 00:47:36,759
Speaker 2: but he did decide he did. He wanted everybody to

910
00:47:36,800 --> 00:47:37,640
Speaker 2: see what he was doing.

911
00:47:38,120 --> 00:47:40,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm going to go out. It was this was

912
00:47:40,120 --> 00:47:44,200
Speaker 1: to me, this was Sister Soldier times one hundred. If

913
00:47:44,200 --> 00:47:46,960
Speaker 1: you actually think about it, Sister Soldier gets the sort

914
00:47:47,000 --> 00:47:50,200
Speaker 1: of the moniker, if you will. This was actually the

915
00:47:50,200 --> 00:47:52,880
Speaker 1: moment that sort of said, look, I am a different

916
00:47:52,920 --> 00:47:54,799
Speaker 1: type of Democrat, right, you are not.

917
00:47:55,160 --> 00:47:56,920
Speaker 2: I am not soft? Right?

918
00:47:56,960 --> 00:47:59,600
Speaker 1: And that was the fear, right, our democrats too soft

919
00:47:59,600 --> 00:48:02,360
Speaker 1: to lead? Are they too soft to be the leader

920
00:48:02,360 --> 00:48:04,640
Speaker 1: of the country? You know, Reagan was tough, all those

921
00:48:04,760 --> 00:48:05,760
Speaker 1: all that, all that mindset.

922
00:48:05,800 --> 00:48:08,399
Speaker 2: Jimmy Carter was too soft, right, that was the red

923
00:48:08,440 --> 00:48:11,760
Speaker 2: dukakas seen soft mondale sy whatever that is to people,

924
00:48:11,760 --> 00:48:15,480
Speaker 2: but there was a softness to them. And and Bill

925
00:48:17,160 --> 00:48:18,160
Speaker 2: is transgender?

926
00:48:18,280 --> 00:48:20,919
Speaker 1: That issue that is that how a Democrat is going

927
00:48:20,960 --> 00:48:25,640
Speaker 1: to try to exploit the stereotype of the left. And

928
00:48:25,760 --> 00:48:27,759
Speaker 1: is that where we expect, which I know is what

929
00:48:28,239 --> 00:48:31,640
Speaker 1: the trans community fears that they're going to be the

930
00:48:31,719 --> 00:48:38,239
Speaker 1: currency to distance for a Democrat to rebrand themselves or

931
00:48:38,280 --> 00:48:39,640
Speaker 1: the party to rebrand themselves.

932
00:48:39,719 --> 00:48:42,360
Speaker 2: Well, this is a this is a very active conversation

933
00:48:42,760 --> 00:48:46,879
Speaker 2: among Democrats that is mostly underground. Again, w I talked

934
00:48:46,880 --> 00:48:48,120
Speaker 2: about the discos.

935
00:48:48,800 --> 00:48:51,880
Speaker 1: I used to call them conversations, right, like the Biden issue,

936
00:48:52,200 --> 00:48:56,839
Speaker 1: the Biden issue that was the loudest nonversation for the

937
00:48:57,000 --> 00:48:57,920
Speaker 1: entire four years.

938
00:48:58,320 --> 00:49:01,120
Speaker 2: Is Kamala Harris really going to be that this? You know?

939
00:49:01,320 --> 00:49:02,960
Speaker 2: Why is there no trust there? And all this?

940
00:49:03,040 --> 00:49:06,759
Speaker 1: The conversation was concern about Harris and concerned about Biden, right,

941
00:49:06,800 --> 00:49:10,680
Speaker 1: and yet it wasn't It wasn't happening in public enough.

942
00:49:10,880 --> 00:49:13,040
Speaker 1: But you and I were having these conversations almost on

943
00:49:13,080 --> 00:49:15,839
Speaker 1: a daily basis with sources, but nobody was talking about

944
00:49:15,880 --> 00:49:18,560
Speaker 1: it right in public. It was the conversation. So what

945
00:49:18,600 --> 00:49:20,680
Speaker 1: you're saying, is this is today's conversation.

946
00:49:21,400 --> 00:49:24,760
Speaker 2: Yes, And the way that I've heard it from people

947
00:49:24,840 --> 00:49:29,080
Speaker 2: in the democratic ideas space, and I'm talking about the

948
00:49:29,120 --> 00:49:33,799
Speaker 2: sorts that they go to donor conferences, they present, they

949
00:49:33,800 --> 00:49:36,919
Speaker 2: present data, they some of them write columns about it. Again,

950
00:49:36,960 --> 00:49:39,319
Speaker 2: I rich to Sharon John Judis are still are still

951
00:49:39,360 --> 00:49:41,360
Speaker 2: doing this. They had a book that got less intention

952
00:49:41,440 --> 00:49:43,759
Speaker 2: than the Emerging Democrat Majority that came out in twenty

953
00:49:43,840 --> 00:49:47,720
Speaker 2: twenty two, and it's funny life to merge. The Democrat

954
00:49:47,719 --> 00:49:50,000
Speaker 2: majority comes out before Democrats are able to win something.

955
00:49:50,160 --> 00:49:52,080
Speaker 2: Their second what comes outhen Democrats have a pretty good

956
00:49:52,120 --> 00:49:55,120
Speaker 2: min term, so they keep the people get missing missing

957
00:49:55,320 --> 00:49:56,440
Speaker 2: what they're saying.

958
00:49:57,000 --> 00:49:59,080
Speaker 1: By the way, that there's fine reading for my how

959
00:49:59,160 --> 00:50:02,600
Speaker 1: Washington works is Roy to Shay's books, because as when

960
00:50:02,680 --> 00:50:04,600
Speaker 1: my students said, oh my god, I wish i'd read

961
00:50:04,600 --> 00:50:05,920
Speaker 1: this before the twenty four election.

962
00:50:06,200 --> 00:50:09,719
Speaker 2: I would have seen this coming, you know, absolutely, But

963
00:50:11,480 --> 00:50:13,760
Speaker 2: there are this conversation when I was saying, the Democrats

964
00:50:13,800 --> 00:50:16,239
Speaker 2: are kind of talking, coming out and saying something and

965
00:50:16,280 --> 00:50:18,919
Speaker 2: then not saying any something again. Behind the scene, they're

966
00:50:18,920 --> 00:50:22,640
Speaker 2: talking about this a lot, and I don't so I'll

967
00:50:22,640 --> 00:50:25,360
Speaker 2: separate the two things. Immigration will be more important because

968
00:50:25,400 --> 00:50:28,239
Speaker 2: that it turns out that Trump has forced a conversation

969
00:50:28,280 --> 00:50:30,160
Speaker 2: on who deserves to be in the country, what does

970
00:50:30,160 --> 00:50:32,719
Speaker 2: the country mean, what do borders mean? And there are

971
00:50:32,719 --> 00:50:36,000
Speaker 2: Democrats now saying you can't have a country without borders.

972
00:50:36,040 --> 00:50:38,640
Speaker 2: Just he has shifted the conversation his direction on what

973
00:50:38,680 --> 00:50:39,160
Speaker 2: that means.

974
00:50:41,360 --> 00:50:44,239
Speaker 1: It's like the great line of what Bill Clinton said, Hey, yeah,

975
00:50:44,280 --> 00:50:46,960
Speaker 1: the air big government is over. Democrats are saying we

976
00:50:47,000 --> 00:50:48,120
Speaker 1: need a nation with borders.

977
00:50:48,600 --> 00:50:51,279
Speaker 2: Yes, And just one of the Democrats' problems for how

978
00:50:51,280 --> 00:50:53,920
Speaker 2: do you convince the swing voter vunning bee does not

979
00:50:54,040 --> 00:50:55,960
Speaker 2: mean the border is wide open and Anglan come in.

980
00:50:56,280 --> 00:50:58,480
Speaker 2: That has become a problem for them that I think

981
00:50:58,800 --> 00:51:01,520
Speaker 2: is existential for what the aready stands for. I should

982
00:51:01,520 --> 00:51:03,640
Speaker 2: that because it's happened everywhere, like look around the world.

983
00:51:03,680 --> 00:51:06,680
Speaker 2: That has been that has been fatal to center left

984
00:51:07,120 --> 00:51:12,880
Speaker 2: social democratic parties in Europe. Uh, it is in Canada.

985
00:51:13,480 --> 00:51:14,280
Speaker 2: David Cameron.

986
00:51:14,640 --> 00:51:19,399
Speaker 1: We came to the States and said get tougher on migrants. Trust, yes,

987
00:51:20,440 --> 00:51:21,920
Speaker 1: I have first stand experience.

988
00:51:22,000 --> 00:51:24,839
Speaker 2: Yeah, yes, or you lose the conversation and the far

989
00:51:24,960 --> 00:51:28,239
Speaker 2: right takes advantage. That is the warning on the left.

990
00:51:28,239 --> 00:51:31,080
Speaker 2: They called this choice socialism or barbarism, which is just

991
00:51:31,080 --> 00:51:33,200
Speaker 2: a good phrase. But what anyone is very different than

992
00:51:33,200 --> 00:51:35,520
Speaker 2: what demmigrants are running on. And that's the problem that

993
00:51:35,600 --> 00:51:37,920
Speaker 2: they if and I say they sell that problem, I

994
00:51:37,920 --> 00:51:39,520
Speaker 2: mean they just need to come up with something that's

995
00:51:39,560 --> 00:51:41,480
Speaker 2: going to have some groups say you guys are terrible

996
00:51:41,560 --> 00:51:45,600
Speaker 2: racists and you're supporting Trump. Urben Guano Arizona has kind

997
00:51:45,600 --> 00:51:47,520
Speaker 2: of led with his chin on this. And as I'm

998
00:51:47,560 --> 00:51:50,000
Speaker 2: a son of Columbia immigrants, I voted for the Lake

999
00:51:50,040 --> 00:51:52,279
Speaker 2: and Riley Act. I don't regret voting for it. Some

1000
00:51:52,320 --> 00:51:54,600
Speaker 2: people who are in the country don't deserve to be here.

1001
00:51:54,680 --> 00:51:56,800
Speaker 2: Come at me, But what does that mean as a

1002
00:51:56,800 --> 00:51:59,240
Speaker 2: full policy? Still bring that out on the gender stuff

1003
00:51:59,560 --> 00:52:02,920
Speaker 2: that that has become, that has been more complicated because

1004
00:52:03,719 --> 00:52:07,560
Speaker 2: the way that they look into this. If I can

1005
00:52:08,480 --> 00:52:11,799
Speaker 2: just quickly, I always I'm sorry I summarize it without

1006
00:52:11,800 --> 00:52:16,719
Speaker 2: being blase about what happened. But gay marriage, which was

1007
00:52:16,960 --> 00:52:19,040
Speaker 2: the fight for gay marriage, which we were both covering

1008
00:52:19,200 --> 00:52:23,640
Speaker 2: for years, was very incremental inch by inch. A lot

1009
00:52:23,640 --> 00:52:26,360
Speaker 2: of Democrats not even in committing to endorseing gay marriage,

1010
00:52:26,360 --> 00:52:28,480
Speaker 2: like Barack Obama until twenty twelve.

1011
00:52:28,560 --> 00:52:32,680
Speaker 1: And Human Rights Campaign's board was divided about Yeah, you know,

1012
00:52:32,760 --> 00:52:37,040
Speaker 1: after the shellacking that gay marriage took at the ballot

1013
00:52:37,040 --> 00:52:40,960
Speaker 1: box and four, there was a real there was a

1014
00:52:41,000 --> 00:52:45,359
Speaker 1: divide inside HRC among some of its big donors. Hey,

1015
00:52:45,400 --> 00:52:48,480
Speaker 1: should we sort of hold back on marriage and instead

1016
00:52:48,560 --> 00:52:53,560
Speaker 1: focus on gay rights protections, you know in the workplace,

1017
00:52:54,400 --> 00:52:57,560
Speaker 1: civil unions. Let's go down that road. People seem to

1018
00:52:57,560 --> 00:53:00,719
Speaker 1: be good with that. Like, there was a real and

1019
00:53:00,760 --> 00:53:04,600
Speaker 1: it was a fifty one proposition about how much to

1020
00:53:05,120 --> 00:53:07,919
Speaker 1: go into the no fight for same sex marriage now

1021
00:53:08,000 --> 00:53:10,839
Speaker 1: versus fight for same sex marriage later, right, And that

1022
00:53:11,040 --> 00:53:14,320
Speaker 1: was a divide, by the way, similar divide on trans

1023
00:53:14,320 --> 00:53:17,840
Speaker 1: issues inside HRC, though I see that they've they've moved

1024
00:53:17,840 --> 00:53:19,040
Speaker 1: past that debate a little bit.

1025
00:53:19,719 --> 00:53:22,839
Speaker 2: They have all you can still walk past HRC headquarters

1026
00:53:22,840 --> 00:53:25,080
Speaker 2: in in DC, and it has they has the big

1027
00:53:25,120 --> 00:53:28,280
Speaker 2: signs that are that are that are about trans rights,

1028
00:53:28,280 --> 00:53:30,879
Speaker 2: et cetera. But just I'm slowly walking through the way

1029
00:53:30,880 --> 00:53:33,439
Speaker 2: that they felt this was Democrats had it was Trench

1030
00:53:33,480 --> 00:53:36,759
Speaker 2: Warford Democrats and the groups there were defeats and one

1031
00:53:36,800 --> 00:53:39,160
Speaker 2: they have asked conservatives who on the trans issue, the

1032
00:53:39,200 --> 00:53:42,560
Speaker 2: ones who believe that they are winning this they can

1033
00:53:42,640 --> 00:53:45,960
Speaker 2: went on everywhere is why why didn't you guys try

1034
00:53:46,000 --> 00:53:50,960
Speaker 2: to put on the ballot in some states? Hey, this

1035
00:53:51,080 --> 00:53:54,880
Speaker 2: state now defines genders as two sexiest man in female.

1036
00:53:54,920 --> 00:53:58,160
Speaker 2: Well that's a great question. Why has it that happened? Well,

1037
00:53:58,200 --> 00:54:01,520
Speaker 2: the one thing is that they they think just even

1038
00:54:01,960 --> 00:54:03,520
Speaker 2: some of them are too younger. Remember two thousand and

1039
00:54:03,560 --> 00:54:06,400
Speaker 2: four when it wouldn't be a perish a referenda. But

1040
00:54:06,440 --> 00:54:10,160
Speaker 2: they they assumed they'd be they'd be outspent on these.

1041
00:54:10,239 --> 00:54:12,239
Speaker 2: They assumed they would not win as many as they did.

1042
00:54:12,400 --> 00:54:15,480
Speaker 2: They also had trouble convincing the party that it mattered.

1043
00:54:15,520 --> 00:54:18,160
Speaker 2: And the story of the right on this up to

1044
00:54:18,200 --> 00:54:23,560
Speaker 2: twenty twenty was that their donors didn't understand why this

1045
00:54:23,680 --> 00:54:26,200
Speaker 2: was such a big deal. The Caitlyn Jenner coming out

1046
00:54:26,239 --> 00:54:30,880
Speaker 2: in twenty fifteen in the context of a twenty sixteen

1047
00:54:30,960 --> 00:54:33,160
Speaker 2: Republican race. You can find Republican at the time like

1048
00:54:33,239 --> 00:54:35,959
Speaker 2: Rick Santorum saying, well, Kaitlyn Jenner says, she's a woman,

1049
00:54:36,000 --> 00:54:38,759
Speaker 2: She's a woman. Sure they didn't understand. They end their

1050
00:54:38,760 --> 00:54:41,600
Speaker 2: family was also Republican. There was a weird part of that.

1051
00:54:42,080 --> 00:54:44,680
Speaker 2: You wonder if she had been a high profile Democrat.

1052
00:54:44,719 --> 00:54:48,080
Speaker 2: If the conversation would have been the same, just maybe maybe,

1053
00:54:48,080 --> 00:54:51,040
Speaker 2: but just the way it was seen as a libertarian issue,

1054
00:54:51,040 --> 00:54:53,080
Speaker 2: It's like, why do you want the republic the Republican

1055
00:54:53,120 --> 00:54:57,160
Speaker 2: party that just got killed on gay marriage after and

1056
00:54:57,160 --> 00:54:58,640
Speaker 2: you can't even talk anymore, why do he wants to

1057
00:54:58,680 --> 00:55:03,000
Speaker 2: get involved in this? Regrets had the same set of facts, Well,

1058
00:55:01,840 --> 00:55:05,040
Speaker 2: we may gain marriage, move so slowly that now we're

1059
00:55:05,080 --> 00:55:07,239
Speaker 2: kind of embarrassed that we moved so slowly. There was

1060
00:55:07,280 --> 00:55:10,080
Speaker 2: a very brief news cycle in twenty fifteen because Hillary

1061
00:55:10,120 --> 00:55:12,760
Speaker 2: Clinton had been Secretary of State and wasn't taking political positions.

1062
00:55:13,080 --> 00:55:15,279
Speaker 2: How come she had endoorse gay marriage yet and the

1063
00:55:15,320 --> 00:55:17,960
Speaker 2: Trump campaign had some fun with Donald Trump endorse gay

1064
00:55:18,000 --> 00:55:23,319
Speaker 2: marriage before Ellary Clinton did so. The trans issues, the

1065
00:55:23,440 --> 00:55:26,880
Speaker 2: history quite complicated. I recommend reading Susan Striker's book on

1066
00:55:27,080 --> 00:55:30,640
Speaker 2: transgender history to catch up on this stuff. They are

1067
00:55:30,680 --> 00:55:33,160
Speaker 2: different movements that are interlocking. They're there and they fight,

1068
00:55:33,600 --> 00:55:36,799
Speaker 2: they they've boon different things. But the way that this

1069
00:55:36,880 --> 00:55:40,320
Speaker 2: has gotten the bomb Minstration of biderministration said well, no,

1070
00:55:40,440 --> 00:55:42,320
Speaker 2: these are these are human rights. Weren't forcing them, and

1071
00:55:42,360 --> 00:55:45,720
Speaker 2: we're changing the way that the code the government's code

1072
00:55:45,920 --> 00:55:49,640
Speaker 2: talks about gender. We are changing the way that healthcare

1073
00:55:49,680 --> 00:55:53,560
Speaker 2: plans cover gender medicine. We're doing that. There's not going

1074
00:55:53,600 --> 00:55:55,239
Speaker 2: to be a debate, there's not going to be referendums

1075
00:55:55,239 --> 00:55:56,680
Speaker 2: in the States, it's not going to all to take forever.

1076
00:55:56,719 --> 00:55:59,080
Speaker 2: We're just doing it because this is right. And then

1077
00:55:59,120 --> 00:56:03,120
Speaker 2: the backlash later. I mean, so it's imagine if because

1078
00:56:03,440 --> 00:56:06,719
Speaker 2: what happened with game marriage is sometimes a court would

1079
00:56:06,760 --> 00:56:09,240
Speaker 2: legalize it and there'd be a voter backlash. But imagine

1080
00:56:09,239 --> 00:56:13,879
Speaker 2: if instead Bill Clinton in nineteen ninety nine says change

1081
00:56:13,880 --> 00:56:15,919
Speaker 2: the legal code. Marriage now means whatever, No, he didn't,

1082
00:56:15,960 --> 00:56:19,200
Speaker 2: he did, Delma. And so the way the trans rights

1083
00:56:19,200 --> 00:56:23,839
Speaker 2: have played out politically, I think has been again traumatized

1084
00:56:23,880 --> 00:56:26,839
Speaker 2: to people who are who are progressive, who believe in this,

1085
00:56:26,880 --> 00:56:29,879
Speaker 2: to trans people, because the recent experience is that human

1086
00:56:29,960 --> 00:56:35,920
Speaker 2: rights moves in one direction, and that actually was the

1087
00:56:36,880 --> 00:56:40,319
Speaker 2: trench forefare of gay marriage was not repeated for trans rights,

1088
00:56:40,360 --> 00:56:45,640
Speaker 2: it was handled differently. Your party really fully understood the implications.

1089
00:56:46,000 --> 00:56:48,320
Speaker 2: Now they've got a good understanding implications. There are people

1090
00:56:48,320 --> 00:56:51,440
Speaker 2: trying to find a way through. But instand what you're

1091
00:56:51,480 --> 00:56:54,960
Speaker 2: seeing is because it wasn't just America, UK, European countries

1092
00:56:54,960 --> 00:56:57,120
Speaker 2: still have the same thing. All right. We have a

1093
00:56:57,120 --> 00:57:00,279
Speaker 2: new understanding of what gender is. It's enforced in the code.

1094
00:57:01,239 --> 00:57:06,200
Speaker 2: And the backlash came after that, This progressive dealing with

1095
00:57:06,239 --> 00:57:09,040
Speaker 2: a with a right wing backlash for a lot because

1096
00:57:09,360 --> 00:57:11,839
Speaker 2: people are cycling through the political process just because of

1097
00:57:11,920 --> 00:57:14,799
Speaker 2: mortality who don't remember things. I find this in the report.

1098
00:57:14,880 --> 00:57:17,600
Speaker 2: People who do not remember Barack Obama being elected. Certainly

1099
00:57:17,600 --> 00:57:20,760
Speaker 2: they don't remember purely when gay marriage was unpopular. There

1100
00:57:20,760 --> 00:57:23,320
Speaker 2: are a lot of people in political activism, in democratic

1101
00:57:23,320 --> 00:57:26,840
Speaker 2: powery politics, and their story is, look, the country is

1102
00:57:26,880 --> 00:57:31,680
Speaker 2: becoming more progressive. Why would you ever question rights for

1103
00:57:31,720 --> 00:57:33,640
Speaker 2: all people, something that's good for all people. Why would

1104
00:57:33,680 --> 00:57:36,240
Speaker 2: you ever do that? How could the Democrats sell people

1105
00:57:36,280 --> 00:57:40,080
Speaker 2: out by saying maybe it's going too fast? Republicans say,

1106
00:57:40,400 --> 00:57:42,560
Speaker 2: I think they're snake bit by gay marriage, and now

1107
00:57:42,800 --> 00:57:44,680
Speaker 2: the degree they moved from we're not sure if we

1108
00:57:44,680 --> 00:57:46,920
Speaker 2: should run on this issue too. We're going to attack

1109
00:57:46,960 --> 00:57:49,760
Speaker 2: every Democrat over it. Again. I think seems eu briistic

1110
00:57:49,800 --> 00:57:52,640
Speaker 2: because in those spaces I'm talking about, the democratic donor

1111
00:57:52,680 --> 00:57:56,640
Speaker 2: space was one thing they're saying is courts might take

1112
00:57:56,680 --> 00:57:59,520
Speaker 2: care of this, and that's like a very if you

1113
00:57:59,520 --> 00:58:01,240
Speaker 2: know what you mean by that, your life, right, another

1114
00:58:01,280 --> 00:58:02,760
Speaker 2: thing of your life. That's a little hard to hear,

1115
00:58:02,920 --> 00:58:05,400
Speaker 2: the saying, look, scremedi happened, there's going to be another.

1116
00:58:05,440 --> 00:58:07,160
Speaker 2: There are there any more cases before a six to

1117
00:58:07,200 --> 00:58:09,440
Speaker 2: three Supreme Court. The next time the Democrats is going

1118
00:58:09,480 --> 00:58:12,560
Speaker 2: to run for office, a Republicans say this is hey,

1119
00:58:12,680 --> 00:58:15,120
Speaker 2: they're going to do this, They'll say no, it's all illegal.

1120
00:58:15,320 --> 00:58:17,360
Speaker 2: That's terrible to hear. If you're progressive, that's like saying,

1121
00:58:17,400 --> 00:58:19,560
Speaker 2: well the ports and handle every wade. Stop running on

1122
00:58:19,560 --> 00:58:22,680
Speaker 2: abortion in Texas. It's over you. Just what's your what's

1123
00:58:22,720 --> 00:58:25,040
Speaker 2: your frame of ressent reference as a progressive or if

1124
00:58:25,120 --> 00:58:27,160
Speaker 2: looks that one, we're never going to get it back.

1125
00:58:36,520 --> 00:58:38,280
Speaker 1: If you have to solve one, if you have to

1126
00:58:38,360 --> 00:58:41,160
Speaker 1: sort of run against the party on, you have to

1127
00:58:41,160 --> 00:58:42,840
Speaker 1: pick one of those two issues to run against the

1128
00:58:42,840 --> 00:58:47,080
Speaker 1: party on. Hard My sense is immigration's the one that

1129
00:58:47,200 --> 00:58:50,600
Speaker 1: voters care about more. Yes, a trans issue is sort

1130
00:58:50,600 --> 00:58:54,600
Speaker 1: of like an exclamation point, and they're in favor of

1131
00:58:55,000 --> 00:58:58,600
Speaker 1: or and they're this right like, and you can weather

1132
00:58:58,720 --> 00:59:01,520
Speaker 1: that if that's your only merit, you can say, look,

1133
00:59:01,600 --> 00:59:04,919
Speaker 1: how pathetic my opponent is being he's obsessed with looking

1134
00:59:05,040 --> 00:59:08,000
Speaker 1: under people's skirts. If that is your only quote unquote

1135
00:59:08,080 --> 00:59:12,600
Speaker 1: violation to the cultural center right, I don't think you

1136
00:59:12,720 --> 00:59:15,920
Speaker 1: could be tough on trans folks and soft on immigration

1137
00:59:15,960 --> 00:59:18,000
Speaker 1: and think that's going to solve your problems. If you're

1138
00:59:18,000 --> 00:59:20,640
Speaker 1: going to pick one of these cultural hot button issues

1139
00:59:20,680 --> 00:59:23,440
Speaker 1: to run against the party on. It feels like immigration

1140
00:59:23,640 --> 00:59:27,440
Speaker 1: is the probably the smarter play if you're just playing.

1141
00:59:27,160 --> 00:59:34,440
Speaker 2: Tactical and it. I agree with that. I also, for

1142
00:59:34,480 --> 00:59:35,720
Speaker 2: all the reason we just talked about it, for the

1143
00:59:35,720 --> 00:59:39,120
Speaker 2: Waite courts are going to handle it. It's also, like

1144
00:59:39,160 --> 00:59:43,560
Speaker 2: I was saying, within the party and the polyglot of

1145
00:59:43,680 --> 00:59:47,080
Speaker 2: influences it has right now, if you come out and say, look,

1146
00:59:47,120 --> 00:59:49,960
Speaker 2: I'm for some deep I'm for deporting people who committed

1147
00:59:49,960 --> 00:59:52,240
Speaker 2: a crime, you don't get the same backlash as you

1148
00:59:52,280 --> 00:59:57,120
Speaker 2: do if you say I mean I was a I

1149
00:59:57,120 --> 00:59:59,240
Speaker 2: mean basher, Andy basher. Another thing I asked him was

1150
00:59:59,240 --> 01:00:03,880
Speaker 2: about the Trump's orders on gender medicine for miners, and

1151
01:00:03,920 --> 01:00:06,400
Speaker 2: he said, well, I'm against surgeries on minors, and I

1152
01:00:06,440 --> 01:00:09,640
Speaker 2: always had it been, and I guess that didn't get

1153
01:00:09,680 --> 01:00:13,960
Speaker 2: reaction anymore. But it's the what also affects more people's lives.

1154
01:00:14,200 --> 01:00:15,720
Speaker 2: I think this is this is this is going. That's

1155
01:00:15,760 --> 01:00:19,360
Speaker 2: exactly right. It's a part of it, yeah, versus you know,

1156
01:00:19,440 --> 01:00:23,600
Speaker 2: thirty percent of the country. But I I I I vote. Sorry,

1157
01:00:23,800 --> 01:00:25,600
Speaker 2: you're the host, and I keep, I keep, I keep. No,

1158
01:00:25,600 --> 01:00:27,720
Speaker 2: no, no no, I think this is a no no no.

1159
01:00:27,760 --> 01:00:30,560
Speaker 2: We spent a good chuck here. That was the big picture.

1160
01:00:31,400 --> 01:00:34,280
Speaker 2: You know, Democrats like need to figure out what they

1161
01:00:34,280 --> 01:00:36,160
Speaker 2: believe and talk about it, as opposed to say, and

1162
01:00:36,200 --> 01:00:38,240
Speaker 2: where we believe is moving this way and I'll get

1163
01:00:38,280 --> 01:00:39,920
Speaker 2: right with history. They just need to say, why do

1164
01:00:39,960 --> 01:00:40,520
Speaker 2: I believe this?

1165
01:00:40,600 --> 01:00:42,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's talk about where we're going to see some

1166
01:00:42,880 --> 01:00:45,080
Speaker 1: of these fights play out, right, like at the ballot

1167
01:00:45,120 --> 01:00:49,480
Speaker 1: box in some of these primaries. Look, we can have

1168
01:00:49,480 --> 01:00:50,720
Speaker 1: a mom Donnie conversation.

1169
01:00:51,160 --> 01:00:52,720
Speaker 2: I'm I'm of.

1170
01:00:54,240 --> 01:00:56,480
Speaker 1: You know, I think that there is a long history

1171
01:00:56,720 --> 01:01:02,000
Speaker 1: of urban voters willing to flirt. Was so because there's

1172
01:01:02,040 --> 01:01:05,760
Speaker 1: a demand for cities to for there always is more

1173
01:01:05,800 --> 01:01:08,880
Speaker 1: of an expectation and a demand for city services than

1174
01:01:08,920 --> 01:01:11,080
Speaker 1: there is for state or federal right that there is

1175
01:01:11,160 --> 01:01:13,600
Speaker 1: this sort of so like, you know, the fact is,

1176
01:01:13,640 --> 01:01:16,560
Speaker 1: when have we elected socialists in this country. Most of

1177
01:01:16,600 --> 01:01:19,200
Speaker 1: the elections have taken place in mayor's races, whether it's

1178
01:01:19,200 --> 01:01:21,320
Speaker 1: the mayor of Burlington, the mayor of Milwaukee. We may

1179
01:01:21,320 --> 01:01:23,400
Speaker 1: have a mayor of Minneapolis, and you know, the mayor

1180
01:01:23,440 --> 01:01:27,480
Speaker 1: of New York City. So I am skeptical that's this

1181
01:01:27,640 --> 01:01:31,880
Speaker 1: transferable into the rest of the party. And I expect

1182
01:01:31,880 --> 01:01:35,480
Speaker 1: most of the party to feel comfortable distancing themselves from

1183
01:01:35,480 --> 01:01:38,680
Speaker 1: mom Donnie, you know, in some sort of Oh, I

1184
01:01:38,800 --> 01:01:40,920
Speaker 1: like him, he's a good campaigner, but that's not what

1185
01:01:40,960 --> 01:01:44,600
Speaker 1: I'm for or hostile, but it will be some form

1186
01:01:44,640 --> 01:01:46,640
Speaker 1: of that. You concur with that, or do you think

1187
01:01:46,680 --> 01:01:48,640
Speaker 1: they could it could have more legs.

1188
01:01:49,480 --> 01:01:52,960
Speaker 2: I I concur I think Republicans are very quick to

1189
01:01:53,000 --> 01:01:55,320
Speaker 2: say we're going to tie every Democrat to mom Donnie.

1190
01:01:55,400 --> 01:01:58,600
Speaker 2: But this rang hollow because Eric Adams was supposed to

1191
01:01:58,600 --> 01:02:03,240
Speaker 2: be the savior of Democrats brand in cities and Republicans

1192
01:02:03,400 --> 01:02:05,880
Speaker 2: swept all these New York suburban seats or anything against

1193
01:02:05,920 --> 01:02:11,160
Speaker 2: Eric Adams anyway, So that's also I try to play

1194
01:02:11,200 --> 01:02:14,360
Speaker 2: it straight. And if everyone agrees that Democrats need to

1195
01:02:14,440 --> 01:02:16,840
Speaker 2: run for something, not against something, I'm not convinced that

1196
01:02:16,960 --> 01:02:20,080
Speaker 2: a midterm message for the incumbent party that runs everything

1197
01:02:20,120 --> 01:02:21,640
Speaker 2: will be Hey, look at that guy in New York.

1198
01:02:22,880 --> 01:02:25,000
Speaker 2: Now I talked to I've known mam Day for a while.

1199
01:02:25,000 --> 01:02:26,600
Speaker 2: I talked to him in the race for mayor, but

1200
01:02:26,680 --> 01:02:28,360
Speaker 2: I met him when he was running for State Senate

1201
01:02:29,240 --> 01:02:31,800
Speaker 2: in New York. The rise of DSA New York, the

1202
01:02:31,840 --> 01:02:34,800
Speaker 2: story of socialists until Mamdani over the last couple of

1203
01:02:34,840 --> 01:02:36,959
Speaker 2: years that they were losing brown. They were losing ground

1204
01:02:37,000 --> 01:02:39,880
Speaker 2: votes for the reasons that a lot of left wing

1205
01:02:40,240 --> 01:02:43,840
Speaker 2: or groups lose round infighting and people quit and people

1206
01:02:43,920 --> 01:02:46,920
Speaker 2: lob accusations at each other. But also they were getting

1207
01:02:46,960 --> 01:02:49,320
Speaker 2: blamed for a lot of policies that they advanced, like

1208
01:02:49,720 --> 01:02:55,120
Speaker 2: bail reform, more of the criminal policies, socialist criminal justice. Yes,

1209
01:02:55,480 --> 01:02:58,520
Speaker 2: but socials were not getting dinged for their economic ideas.

1210
01:02:58,520 --> 01:03:02,040
Speaker 2: They were getting hurt for the other ideas about remaking

1211
01:03:02,280 --> 01:03:08,480
Speaker 2: remaking society. Prison abolition, police abolition, defunding police is downstream

1212
01:03:08,480 --> 01:03:11,720
Speaker 2: from that. And Mam Donnie didn't run on that. Remind

1213
01:03:11,760 --> 01:03:15,760
Speaker 2: ran on affordability. So I feel the one way I

1214
01:03:15,840 --> 01:03:18,000
Speaker 2: view what he did is more he's like the Howard

1215
01:03:18,080 --> 01:03:21,800
Speaker 2: Jarvis of of a browsing a portability Howard Jarvis, you know,

1216
01:03:21,840 --> 01:03:25,760
Speaker 2: passes this doll initiative in California in the seventies on

1217
01:03:25,880 --> 01:03:29,320
Speaker 2: tax limitation that free defines the state, but Democrats don't

1218
01:03:29,320 --> 01:03:32,160
Speaker 2: see Prop thirteen. But Democrats don't see it coming because

1219
01:03:32,200 --> 01:03:35,360
Speaker 2: they they thought they were being responsible stewards of this

1220
01:03:35,840 --> 01:03:38,360
Speaker 2: exparis money and saving up for a big surplus and

1221
01:03:38,360 --> 01:03:42,160
Speaker 2: not refunding people's money with taxes. And in New York

1222
01:03:42,200 --> 01:03:43,840
Speaker 2: there was a lot of denial like, well, I mean, yeah,

1223
01:03:43,880 --> 01:03:45,600
Speaker 2: the housing thing is slow, but we need to work

1224
01:03:45,640 --> 01:03:48,200
Speaker 2: through these groups and we're going to build this housing.

1225
01:03:48,240 --> 01:03:51,280
Speaker 2: But this donor's opposed to it, and Mam Donnie. There's

1226
01:03:51,320 --> 01:03:54,680
Speaker 2: been this fight for who owns this agenda between more

1227
01:03:54,800 --> 01:03:58,680
Speaker 2: moderate Democrats and Progresses because they do want to be

1228
01:03:58,760 --> 01:04:02,200
Speaker 2: the party of affordability. It just needs different stuff in

1229
01:04:02,200 --> 01:04:05,800
Speaker 2: different places. I mean, you mentioned Minneapolis and housing affordability

1230
01:04:05,840 --> 01:04:07,520
Speaker 2: is less of an issue in Minneapolis because it's not

1231
01:04:07,560 --> 01:04:10,840
Speaker 2: as expensive. It's society spent to lived there. New York

1232
01:04:10,880 --> 01:04:14,360
Speaker 2: has been New York Los Angeles. I mean you can

1233
01:04:14,440 --> 01:04:18,400
Speaker 2: really start that there. DC area are just if you're

1234
01:04:18,400 --> 01:04:20,400
Speaker 2: in when you're done with this podcast, go look up

1235
01:04:20,480 --> 01:04:23,080
Speaker 2: Zillo and look up what it costs to have a

1236
01:04:23,080 --> 01:04:26,280
Speaker 2: big family home in those places, You're not going to

1237
01:04:26,360 --> 01:04:29,960
Speaker 2: have the same issues outside of urban areas. So he

1238
01:04:30,120 --> 01:04:32,800
Speaker 2: is he is for urban democrats, like a Howard Jermans

1239
01:04:32,800 --> 01:04:36,800
Speaker 2: figures saying, look, if you don't deal with this, voters

1240
01:04:36,840 --> 01:04:38,840
Speaker 2: are going to react and make you deal with it.

1241
01:04:38,880 --> 01:04:44,000
Speaker 2: And I look more housing etctera, go ahead. My test

1242
01:04:44,040 --> 01:04:48,280
Speaker 2: on Mom Donnie is Mikey Cheryl. If somehow she loses,

1243
01:04:48,480 --> 01:04:51,320
Speaker 2: I think there will be this idea that there's a

1244
01:04:51,360 --> 01:04:54,600
Speaker 2: Mom Donnie effect and that hurt her in the Northern

1245
01:04:54,720 --> 01:04:58,000
Speaker 2: Jersey suburbs, right, Like, that's the scenario. I had an

1246
01:04:58,040 --> 01:05:00,280
Speaker 2: interview with Rama Manuel a couple of weeks ago, and

1247
01:05:00,320 --> 01:05:04,440
Speaker 2: that was his paranoia that does Mom Donnie become a problem?

1248
01:05:04,480 --> 01:05:04,640
Speaker 2: You know?

1249
01:05:04,720 --> 01:05:08,280
Speaker 1: Can the can Chitdarelli and New Jersey weaponized Mom Donnie

1250
01:05:08,720 --> 01:05:12,560
Speaker 1: and weaponize New York City essentially against Mikey Chryl and

1251
01:05:12,920 --> 01:05:17,200
Speaker 1: make her own that a little bit. I'll watch and see, right,

1252
01:05:17,360 --> 01:05:20,880
Speaker 1: I don't you know, we'll find out. I think I'm

1253
01:05:20,920 --> 01:05:22,920
Speaker 1: fascinated with New Jersey governor because I think it's the

1254
01:05:22,920 --> 01:05:25,160
Speaker 1: only I don't think Virginia is going to be because

1255
01:05:25,200 --> 01:05:27,640
Speaker 1: of the federal worker issue really more than anything else,

1256
01:05:28,000 --> 01:05:30,880
Speaker 1: is such a such a problem for Republicans. You know,

1257
01:05:30,920 --> 01:05:34,200
Speaker 1: they can complain all they want around the lieutenant governor's campaign. Please,

1258
01:05:34,440 --> 01:05:37,200
Speaker 1: it's Donald Trump and the land Doge that is the

1259
01:05:38,240 --> 01:05:41,080
Speaker 1: that is going to put Abigail Spamberger in Richmond.

1260
01:05:41,080 --> 01:05:41,360
Speaker 2: There.

1261
01:05:42,880 --> 01:05:45,760
Speaker 1: So let's move to twenty sixteen, and if you had

1262
01:05:45,760 --> 01:05:49,560
Speaker 1: a I'm going to answer it first. And I'm curious

1263
01:05:49,560 --> 01:05:52,000
Speaker 1: if there's any other state that you I think the

1264
01:05:52,000 --> 01:05:55,360
Speaker 1: most interesting state to understand where the country is headed,

1265
01:05:55,560 --> 01:05:58,880
Speaker 1: where the Democratic Party is headed, is the state of Michigan.

1266
01:05:59,640 --> 01:06:02,480
Speaker 1: You have a Democratic primary and Senate that is going

1267
01:06:02,520 --> 01:06:07,000
Speaker 1: to pit sort of establishment DC versus sort of younger

1268
01:06:07,560 --> 01:06:12,080
Speaker 1: outsider state senator right and Molly McMorrow versus Haley Stevens.

1269
01:06:12,680 --> 01:06:14,560
Speaker 1: And then you have the three way race for governor,

1270
01:06:16,160 --> 01:06:20,120
Speaker 1: which is going to test sort of where is the middle?

1271
01:06:20,720 --> 01:06:23,520
Speaker 2: You know, can you know what is what.

1272
01:06:23,520 --> 01:06:27,440
Speaker 1: Is mainstream left versus the center versus Frankly John James

1273
01:06:27,440 --> 01:06:28,200
Speaker 1: being mainstream right.

1274
01:06:28,240 --> 01:06:32,000
Speaker 2: I mean I find it, you know, and whether there is.

1275
01:06:31,960 --> 01:06:36,720
Speaker 1: A a centrist or a sort of non major party

1276
01:06:36,800 --> 01:06:40,440
Speaker 1: movement that can actually get traction right beyond that. So

1277
01:06:40,920 --> 01:06:43,600
Speaker 1: I look at the state of Michigan and it both

1278
01:06:43,600 --> 01:06:45,400
Speaker 1: the governor's race and the Senate race, and I just

1279
01:06:45,400 --> 01:06:48,480
Speaker 1: see it as having all of the national storylines. We're

1280
01:06:48,480 --> 01:06:52,000
Speaker 1: trying to figure out the future of the Democrats, what's

1281
01:06:52,080 --> 01:06:54,920
Speaker 1: going on with this sort of continued ten year rise

1282
01:06:54,960 --> 01:06:58,560
Speaker 1: of people not aligning with either party, particularly among voters

1283
01:06:58,640 --> 01:07:01,280
Speaker 1: under forty five, and that Michigan.

1284
01:07:00,880 --> 01:07:01,400
Speaker 2: Has it all.

1285
01:07:04,360 --> 01:07:07,240
Speaker 1: I know you coulccur about Michigan being important. Is it

1286
01:07:07,320 --> 01:07:09,640
Speaker 1: the be all end all? Do you see it that

1287
01:07:09,720 --> 01:07:11,960
Speaker 1: same way? Is there other states that you would put

1288
01:07:11,960 --> 01:07:14,360
Speaker 1: in that category for the for twenty twenty six?

1289
01:07:14,400 --> 01:07:15,320
Speaker 2: It's sort of being.

1290
01:07:17,120 --> 01:07:22,160
Speaker 1: Nearly the most intriguing and most important potential ways to

1291
01:07:22,320 --> 01:07:26,320
Speaker 1: sort of decipher what might happen in twenty eight.

1292
01:07:26,920 --> 01:07:29,600
Speaker 2: No, I like that as the focal point. I would

1293
01:07:29,680 --> 01:07:32,560
Speaker 2: not There is not any sort of I would say

1294
01:07:32,720 --> 01:07:37,280
Speaker 2: Nevada is going to be interesting because as a test

1295
01:07:37,320 --> 01:07:39,800
Speaker 2: of how Fluky and Texas, Texas and Babiel pinterting is

1296
01:07:39,800 --> 01:07:42,680
Speaker 2: the text of whether to move towards Trump by Latino

1297
01:07:42,760 --> 01:07:45,400
Speaker 2: voters with situational for twenty twenty four or whether it

1298
01:07:45,480 --> 01:07:48,600
Speaker 2: represents something long term and just that's not as much

1299
01:07:48,600 --> 01:07:51,960
Speaker 2: of a factor in Michigan. It's both of them. I'm

1300
01:07:51,960 --> 01:07:53,400
Speaker 2: why have you said that too? Because I think I

1301
01:07:53,480 --> 01:07:55,800
Speaker 2: unless something changes, I'm going to Michigan on Saturday. So

1302
01:07:55,880 --> 01:07:59,120
Speaker 2: I'm glad it's important, But I mean it's got era.

1303
01:07:59,200 --> 01:08:01,400
Speaker 1: I mean I've been there already myself, and it's like

1304
01:08:01,840 --> 01:08:05,280
Speaker 1: I I every time, I'm like, man, boy, this is

1305
01:08:05,320 --> 01:08:06,640
Speaker 1: where I'd open a bureau here.

1306
01:08:06,680 --> 01:08:08,520
Speaker 2: If I were the hotline, you know, type of thing

1307
01:08:09,720 --> 01:08:12,520
Speaker 2: that important, I'd ben she theres a third candidate in

1308
01:08:12,520 --> 01:08:14,479
Speaker 2: the in the the four candidates in the Senate race,

1309
01:08:14,920 --> 01:08:17,360
Speaker 2: Abdul Elsi ed who Bernie Sanders and Doris day One.

1310
01:08:17,760 --> 01:08:20,360
Speaker 2: That's right, I forgot about it, yeah, yes, And and

1311
01:08:20,479 --> 01:08:23,200
Speaker 2: Joe Tate, the former Speaker of the of the State House,

1312
01:08:23,240 --> 01:08:27,040
Speaker 2: who's interesting. He's also kind of as a storytelling figure,

1313
01:08:27,120 --> 01:08:29,599
Speaker 2: sort of interesting because he was the first black Democrats

1314
01:08:29,600 --> 01:08:32,559
Speaker 2: speaker of the State House in Michigan, and Michigan Democrats

1315
01:08:32,600 --> 01:08:36,960
Speaker 2: finally won this trifecta in twenty a twenty two, and

1316
01:08:37,000 --> 01:08:39,120
Speaker 2: then they didn't do as much as other Democrats did

1317
01:08:39,120 --> 01:08:41,840
Speaker 2: with their trifecta. And there's not real metrics, not much

1318
01:08:41,840 --> 01:08:45,040
Speaker 2: excitement around Joe Tate because where was the agenda. Where

1319
01:08:45,080 --> 01:08:47,840
Speaker 2: was the great Whitmer agenda that she could compare to

1320
01:08:47,880 --> 01:08:52,479
Speaker 2: what Tim Walls did in Minnesota or what Kathie Hochel

1321
01:08:52,479 --> 01:08:56,000
Speaker 2: did in New York, et cetera. Uh. And so Tate

1322
01:08:56,080 --> 01:08:59,080
Speaker 2: has not gotten much much momentum. Abdul has gotten some

1323
01:08:59,120 --> 01:09:02,160
Speaker 2: of that progressive in christ And yes more is running

1324
01:09:02,200 --> 01:09:04,920
Speaker 2: more as an anti I agree with you because the

1325
01:09:04,920 --> 01:09:07,600
Speaker 2: stories they're all telling are very interesting. The reason that

1326
01:09:08,120 --> 01:09:11,640
Speaker 2: the more of people's theory of the case is he

1327
01:09:12,000 --> 01:09:16,919
Speaker 2: is at the leading edge of the suburban state Michigan

1328
01:09:17,400 --> 01:09:22,280
Speaker 2: revival from the suburbs of Detroit. The subject froid big place. Uh.

1329
01:09:22,320 --> 01:09:25,559
Speaker 2: And she's been doing this work in Michigan, not in

1330
01:09:25,640 --> 01:09:29,000
Speaker 2: d C. Their theory is just being connected to DC

1331
01:09:29,120 --> 01:09:32,240
Speaker 2: and Democrats flopping around failing. Uh is not going to

1332
01:09:32,280 --> 01:09:35,479
Speaker 2: be a winner for Haley Stevens the Stephens. The Stephens

1333
01:09:35,479 --> 01:09:38,720
Speaker 2: theory is more that she gets things done, she can

1334
01:09:38,760 --> 01:09:41,639
Speaker 2: work with both parties. Is that still the wait get ahead? Yeah,

1335
01:09:41,720 --> 01:09:44,120
Speaker 2: that she's Ferry Peters or she's a lista slock into

1336
01:09:44,160 --> 01:09:46,920
Speaker 2: an extent and I'll do the saed l sa Ed

1337
01:09:47,000 --> 01:09:51,120
Speaker 2: theory is Democrats were not inspiring enough. They're not straightforward

1338
01:09:51,160 --> 01:09:53,679
Speaker 2: enough of what they believe, say what they think, call

1339
01:09:53,720 --> 01:09:56,439
Speaker 2: out for I mean day waned how I interviewed him

1340
01:09:56,479 --> 01:10:00,000
Speaker 2: and he calls what happening, what's happening Israel and Gaza genocide?

1341
01:10:00,479 --> 01:10:04,160
Speaker 2: Do that his theory, and that's that's a very powerful

1342
01:10:04,200 --> 01:10:08,160
Speaker 2: strain of progressive thinking. The note for true progressives have

1343
01:10:08,240 --> 01:10:12,240
Speaker 2: not been tried. They the democratic establishment never let Bernie

1344
01:10:12,240 --> 01:10:14,360
Speaker 2: get the nominations, so we've never got to see out

1345
01:10:14,560 --> 01:10:16,639
Speaker 2: put him progressive in there, and you're gonna wake up

1346
01:10:17,120 --> 01:10:21,479
Speaker 2: correct Bernie's was Bernie won Michigan primaries twice, right, No,

1347
01:10:21,640 --> 01:10:23,280
Speaker 2: he won the first one and he got he got

1348
01:10:23,280 --> 01:10:24,960
Speaker 2: smoked in pointy twenty uh.

1349
01:10:25,120 --> 01:10:27,639
Speaker 1: Which twenty he did not win. Because that's because Michigan

1350
01:10:27,680 --> 01:10:30,280
Speaker 1: has in the past. Jesse Jackson won the Michigan primary

1351
01:10:30,520 --> 01:10:32,920
Speaker 1: back in the day. There's always been this interesting, weird

1352
01:10:33,720 --> 01:10:36,240
Speaker 1: progressive and part of it is there's no party registration.

1353
01:10:36,680 --> 01:10:39,360
Speaker 1: I think you can go on either side, so you

1354
01:10:39,439 --> 01:10:42,679
Speaker 1: can sort of momentum candidates can grab, can can pull

1355
01:10:42,760 --> 01:10:44,600
Speaker 1: up sets in Michigan in ways that.

1356
01:10:45,280 --> 01:10:49,360
Speaker 2: Yeah, this is one of my favorite unkillables the party

1357
01:10:49,400 --> 01:10:53,480
Speaker 2: is because because Bernie never never got the nomination. Uh,

1358
01:10:53,680 --> 01:10:56,840
Speaker 2: who was the Bernie voter and how how much could

1359
01:10:56,840 --> 01:10:58,880
Speaker 2: he have been a Bernie instead of a Trump voter?

1360
01:10:59,360 --> 01:11:01,240
Speaker 2: And they never got a chance to prove it. They

1361
01:11:01,280 --> 01:11:03,960
Speaker 2: never will, But in Michigan is one of those places.

1362
01:11:04,120 --> 01:11:07,000
Speaker 2: New Hampshire primary was the first place where this started

1363
01:11:07,000 --> 01:11:10,439
Speaker 2: to pop up. Because Bernie kills Hillary in the New

1364
01:11:10,439 --> 01:11:13,280
Speaker 2: Hampshire biggest landslide and they through the primary. He runs

1365
01:11:13,280 --> 01:11:15,760
Speaker 2: four years later, he's better known. He does much worse.

1366
01:11:15,800 --> 01:11:18,479
Speaker 2: He wins the primary, but barely because it turns out

1367
01:11:18,479 --> 01:11:19,960
Speaker 2: a lot of his voters just like, no, I'm an

1368
01:11:19,960 --> 01:11:22,439
Speaker 2: independent and I hate Hillary. Same thing happened to Michigan.

1369
01:11:22,520 --> 01:11:25,400
Speaker 2: He Biden wins every county in the state because a

1370
01:11:25,400 --> 01:11:28,160
Speaker 2: lot of the Bernie voters just they hated Hillary. How

1371
01:11:28,160 --> 01:11:30,400
Speaker 2: many of them would have come out for Bernie had

1372
01:11:30,439 --> 01:11:33,759
Speaker 2: he been the nominee. How many of the voted for Trump?

1373
01:11:34,040 --> 01:11:35,640
Speaker 2: We don't know. And I think it's very fair to

1374
01:11:35,640 --> 01:11:38,040
Speaker 2: progressives to say that's right, you never have to test

1375
01:11:38,280 --> 01:11:42,720
Speaker 2: that particular campaign. And the abdulah l said theory is,

1376
01:11:42,800 --> 01:11:44,720
Speaker 2: I'll do it. I'm going to test this campaign. I'm

1377
01:11:44,760 --> 01:11:48,720
Speaker 2: going to run as a Bernie populist in Michigan. And

1378
01:11:48,760 --> 01:11:51,000
Speaker 2: the mcmorro theory is more I'm going to run as

1379
01:11:51,000 --> 01:11:54,719
Speaker 2: the Buddha Judge generational change outsider candidate, and the Stevens

1380
01:11:54,720 --> 01:11:57,920
Speaker 2: Camp theory is look, Gary Peters won, I can win

1381
01:11:59,200 --> 01:12:03,839
Speaker 2: and so yeah, very different theories of how how the party,

1382
01:12:03,960 --> 01:12:07,040
Speaker 2: how the party works. And I needed to spend time

1383
01:12:07,040 --> 01:12:09,160
Speaker 2: out with them because the thing in common is they're

1384
01:12:09,160 --> 01:12:13,639
Speaker 2: really not attracting new people. They're not finding those voters

1385
01:12:13,680 --> 01:12:17,639
Speaker 2: who got disaffected by Democrats in the in the last

1386
01:12:17,640 --> 01:12:20,160
Speaker 2: few years and now have found somebody inspiring. And I

1387
01:12:20,200 --> 01:12:23,000
Speaker 2: think that does come down to policy. And I think

1388
01:12:23,000 --> 01:12:25,160
Speaker 2: it was a non more immigration than anything else, because

1389
01:12:25,160 --> 01:12:28,880
Speaker 2: that's one thing you hear a lot talking to the

1390
01:12:28,960 --> 01:12:32,519
Speaker 2: non white voters who were Democrats and voted for Obama

1391
01:12:32,560 --> 01:12:34,720
Speaker 2: and then voted for Trump. A thing that comes up

1392
01:12:34,880 --> 01:12:37,559
Speaker 2: very frequently is I work for what I have. And

1393
01:12:37,600 --> 01:12:39,599
Speaker 2: then the Democrats gave free hotels to all the elie

1394
01:12:39,680 --> 01:12:43,360
Speaker 2: immigrants boom once. How much did it hurt the party

1395
01:12:43,360 --> 01:12:45,880
Speaker 2: that they were seeing as the party not just of

1396
01:12:45,920 --> 01:12:49,599
Speaker 2: not giving things, not giving things away to people, Because

1397
01:12:49,600 --> 01:12:51,040
Speaker 2: this was the we're trying to the eighties, this is

1398
01:12:51,080 --> 01:12:52,960
Speaker 2: the crisis the eighties. The Democrats of the party of

1399
01:12:53,040 --> 01:12:56,040
Speaker 2: handing out welfare and taking the economy. How much of

1400
01:12:56,080 --> 01:12:56,800
Speaker 2: this and it's over?

1401
01:12:58,840 --> 01:13:02,280
Speaker 1: You know, the welfare queen image of the eighties became

1402
01:13:02,360 --> 01:13:06,200
Speaker 1: the migrant free migrant hotel guys in New York in yeah,

1403
01:13:06,280 --> 01:13:07,240
Speaker 1: twenty two.

1404
01:13:07,160 --> 01:13:09,400
Speaker 2: And how much is it? I think that's less of

1405
01:13:09,439 --> 01:13:11,640
Speaker 2: a factor in Michigan. But I did hear some of

1406
01:13:11,680 --> 01:13:14,200
Speaker 2: that in the Detroit area, is it? Yeah? I look

1407
01:13:14,240 --> 01:13:15,840
Speaker 2: for the Democrats, but they never do anything for us.

1408
01:13:15,880 --> 01:13:17,679
Speaker 2: It seems like all they care about is a legal immigrant.

1409
01:13:18,160 --> 01:13:21,080
Speaker 2: What's let's if Mike Duggan wins the governorship, what does

1410
01:13:21,160 --> 01:13:27,240
Speaker 2: that mean? Uh? Yeah, that would be so that would

1411
01:13:27,360 --> 01:13:30,120
Speaker 2: I think be a victory for he will have beaten

1412
01:13:30,120 --> 01:13:36,960
Speaker 2: the Democratic Republican candidates most very good, I mean very good. One.

1413
01:13:36,960 --> 01:13:39,160
Speaker 1: This is not a case usually when the third party

1414
01:13:39,200 --> 01:13:43,840
Speaker 1: candidate has a shot, there's a flawed nominee. But there's

1415
01:13:43,840 --> 01:13:47,640
Speaker 1: no obvious flaw in Joscelyn Benson among Democrats. There's no

1416
01:13:47,720 --> 01:13:51,000
Speaker 1: obvious flaw among John James. If anything, both of them,

1417
01:13:51,360 --> 01:13:54,080
Speaker 1: you know, Benson feels like a rightful heir to Whitmer,

1418
01:13:54,160 --> 01:13:57,680
Speaker 1: and John James feels like the new Republican Party that

1419
01:13:57,680 --> 01:14:00,360
Speaker 1: they're trying to sell, right, you know. And and here

1420
01:14:00,360 --> 01:14:04,200
Speaker 1: comes Mike Duggan, sort of rumpily rumpty, old white guy

1421
01:14:04,240 --> 01:14:09,240
Speaker 1: mayor of Detroit, right and sort of I'm going to

1422
01:14:09,320 --> 01:14:11,360
Speaker 1: turn your street lights on and fill your potholes kind

1423
01:14:11,400 --> 01:14:15,120
Speaker 1: of guy, sort of technocraty, right, sort of Bloomberg without

1424
01:14:15,120 --> 01:14:19,639
Speaker 1: the nice suits. And that's I don't know if that's

1425
01:14:19,680 --> 01:14:22,120
Speaker 1: going to work outside of the Detroit metro area, which

1426
01:14:22,160 --> 01:14:25,559
Speaker 1: is my curiosity. He does really well in in his

1427
01:14:25,640 --> 01:14:28,519
Speaker 1: media market. He's much less known obviously in the rest

1428
01:14:28,560 --> 01:14:34,240
Speaker 1: of the state. But that's my curiosity is if he wins,

1429
01:14:34,320 --> 01:14:36,880
Speaker 1: what does it mean and what does it mean for

1430
01:14:36,960 --> 01:14:39,600
Speaker 1: Democrats more so than it is for Republicans, because to me,

1431
01:14:39,640 --> 01:14:42,000
Speaker 1: this would be more of a of a statement against

1432
01:14:42,000 --> 01:14:44,600
Speaker 1: the against the Democrats than it would be because one

1433
01:14:44,640 --> 01:14:47,360
Speaker 1: would assume by the general Whitmer's out there trying to

1434
01:14:47,720 --> 01:14:49,479
Speaker 1: help Jocelyn Benson be the heir apparent.

1435
01:14:50,640 --> 01:14:53,080
Speaker 2: Yes, that is that is an under That's another reason

1436
01:14:53,120 --> 01:14:57,320
Speaker 2: Michigan's worth watching, because Democrats have their map and their

1437
01:14:57,360 --> 01:15:00,400
Speaker 2: theory of what's going to happen across the kind tree

1438
01:15:00,439 --> 01:15:03,040
Speaker 2: and where where does this fit in? Where where does

1439
01:15:03,080 --> 01:15:06,720
Speaker 2: where does it fit in that they because why do

1440
01:15:07,200 --> 01:15:10,040
Speaker 2: play it out like if they lose the Michigan UH

1441
01:15:10,680 --> 01:15:13,800
Speaker 2: governor's mansion to John James. He's an instantly favorite for

1442
01:15:13,960 --> 01:15:17,759
Speaker 2: vice president in twenty twenty eight president at some point

1443
01:15:17,920 --> 01:15:20,800
Speaker 2: without doing anything, maybe just being in that position. He

1444
01:15:21,240 --> 01:15:23,519
Speaker 2: ran for senidate twice and lost. With that theory, as

1445
01:15:23,520 --> 01:15:25,880
Speaker 2: soon as we going state a black elected Republican, he's

1446
01:15:25,920 --> 01:15:27,000
Speaker 2: he's going to be. He's going to be in the

1447
01:15:27,000 --> 01:15:28,280
Speaker 2: mets with later in Black Bowl.

1448
01:15:28,320 --> 01:15:31,720
Speaker 1: It's like Reuben Diego's wingst Hispanic Democrat. He's going to

1449
01:15:31,720 --> 01:15:32,360
Speaker 1: be on every lip.

1450
01:15:33,120 --> 01:15:36,960
Speaker 2: So there will intense Democratic interest in stopping that from happening.

1451
01:15:37,520 --> 01:15:39,880
Speaker 2: And the most recent experiency you have of this is

1452
01:15:39,920 --> 01:15:42,240
Speaker 2: Democrats is trying to shut down the third party candidate

1453
01:15:42,240 --> 01:15:45,960
Speaker 2: and deny them support, deny them consultants, et cetera. Dougan's

1454
01:15:46,000 --> 01:15:49,519
Speaker 2: been polling pretty well. And the thing that I think

1455
01:15:49,520 --> 01:15:54,120
Speaker 2: this havn't panicked yet because in polling Benson has still

1456
01:15:54,160 --> 01:15:57,679
Speaker 2: been winning. James is not a runaway favorite. He's never

1457
01:15:57,760 --> 01:16:02,160
Speaker 2: he's he's done, he's done, he's out performed when I

1458
01:16:02,200 --> 01:16:05,720
Speaker 2: think he ran it behind Trump and twenty twenty yes,

1459
01:16:06,240 --> 01:16:10,040
Speaker 2: hand Trump joined my eighteen, but the stated not on

1460
01:16:10,080 --> 01:16:13,240
Speaker 2: fire for John James and being a Republican House member

1461
01:16:13,439 --> 01:16:16,000
Speaker 2: is the least effective part of it. If I'm wrong,

1462
01:16:16,160 --> 01:16:21,479
Speaker 2: Republicans haven't been able to win statewide in Michigan fourteen

1463
01:16:21,520 --> 01:16:25,200
Speaker 2: I mean, right, Rick Schnyder, that's the last one. Yeah, yeah,

1464
01:16:25,240 --> 01:16:29,439
Speaker 2: I mean Democrats. The Democrats have swept everything except the

1465
01:16:29,479 --> 01:16:34,960
Speaker 2: presidential in twenty twenty sixteen, twenty sixteen, and twenty two.

1466
01:16:35,280 --> 01:16:37,719
Speaker 2: Those are big ifs, and those are big butt forst

1467
01:16:37,760 --> 01:16:40,559
Speaker 2: But really it's yeah, Democrats what they can't win any

1468
01:16:40,560 --> 01:16:43,360
Speaker 2: of the state wide races republicly in twenty twenty two,

1469
01:16:43,520 --> 01:16:46,200
Speaker 2: and Democrats win every state supreme court race every time.

1470
01:16:46,520 --> 01:16:49,200
Speaker 2: It's not Trump on the ballot Democrats. Sweet, you're right, Well,

1471
01:16:49,200 --> 01:16:50,760
Speaker 2: what's interesting about what's going on?

1472
01:16:50,800 --> 01:16:53,400
Speaker 1: And this was and I know we're getting up on

1473
01:16:53,439 --> 01:16:57,200
Speaker 1: an hour, and I'm very I'm very mindful of that,

1474
01:16:57,200 --> 01:16:58,880
Speaker 1: but I have a feeling we could go on for

1475
01:16:58,920 --> 01:17:03,000
Speaker 1: a long time. But it it is interesting about the difference.

1476
01:17:03,040 --> 01:17:04,680
Speaker 1: And this was another theme I wanted to hit with

1477
01:17:04,720 --> 01:17:09,200
Speaker 1: you on the midterms that I think what makes eighteen different,

1478
01:17:09,240 --> 01:17:11,880
Speaker 1: what makes twenty twenty six potentially different? Twenty eighteen is

1479
01:17:11,920 --> 01:17:15,920
Speaker 1: you have a more unified Republican Party. So Mitch McConnell

1480
01:17:15,960 --> 01:17:18,240
Speaker 1: was not interested in the same candidates that Donald Trump's

1481
01:17:18,240 --> 01:17:21,160
Speaker 1: team was interested in for Senate races. This time, John

1482
01:17:21,200 --> 01:17:24,479
Speaker 1: Thune and the Trump team are working in tandem and

1483
01:17:24,520 --> 01:17:28,240
Speaker 1: they're really The only disagreement going right now, arguably is Georgia.

1484
01:17:28,320 --> 01:17:32,840
Speaker 1: And we can have a conversation about Louisiana, but that's

1485
01:17:32,840 --> 01:17:34,320
Speaker 1: a separate issue in Texas.

1486
01:17:34,360 --> 01:17:36,040
Speaker 2: Those are sort of unique to the incumbents.

1487
01:17:36,200 --> 01:17:39,960
Speaker 1: But as far as the essentially and it's really Brian

1488
01:17:40,080 --> 01:17:43,360
Speaker 1: Kemp and the DC folks that are in disagreement about Georgia.

1489
01:17:44,880 --> 01:17:48,040
Speaker 1: Look at howt quickly everybody's shut down primaries in Michigan.

1490
01:17:48,040 --> 01:17:50,559
Speaker 1: Look howt quickly a primary was shut down in North Carolina,

1491
01:17:50,720 --> 01:17:53,400
Speaker 1: Look out quickly, But like this is a quickly a

1492
01:17:53,400 --> 01:17:56,920
Speaker 1: primary was shut down in Florida for that Senate seat.

1493
01:17:57,280 --> 01:18:00,400
Speaker 1: It does you know, I see a Republican Party for

1494
01:18:00,439 --> 01:18:02,640
Speaker 1: the first time in the Trump era rowing in the

1495
01:18:02,680 --> 01:18:06,920
Speaker 1: same direction as far as tactic tactics are concerned.

1496
01:18:07,760 --> 01:18:12,839
Speaker 2: That's worth something. And you know Democrats have overperformed thanks

1497
01:18:12,960 --> 01:18:16,639
Speaker 2: to Republican infighting. That may not be there in twenty

1498
01:18:16,720 --> 01:18:21,840
Speaker 2: six that's worth what five seats in the House? Is

1499
01:18:21,840 --> 01:18:24,439
Speaker 2: that worth a Senate seat or two? What's your sense

1500
01:18:24,479 --> 01:18:28,360
Speaker 2: on that it would have been in the past, because

1501
01:18:28,439 --> 01:18:32,000
Speaker 2: sometimes Trump just chooses worse candidates even despite the infighting

1502
01:18:34,200 --> 01:18:36,719
Speaker 2: and almost out of it. Really touched the hot stove,

1503
01:18:36,760 --> 01:18:37,320
Speaker 2: don't touch it.

1504
01:18:37,400 --> 01:18:39,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm gonna I'm gonna sleep on the hot stove,

1505
01:18:40,000 --> 01:18:40,719
Speaker 1: forget touching.

1506
01:18:40,800 --> 01:18:44,479
Speaker 2: Yeah, But it's the point is getting people who have

1507
01:18:44,560 --> 01:18:49,280
Speaker 2: his vision. The jd Vance example in Ohio is definitive

1508
01:18:49,360 --> 01:18:52,000
Speaker 2: obviously because where he ended up is would they have

1509
01:18:52,479 --> 01:18:55,960
Speaker 2: Would Mike Dolan have won more easily than jd Vance

1510
01:18:56,120 --> 01:18:59,040
Speaker 2: in twenty twenty two? Yeah? Probably? What would that have

1511
01:18:59,080 --> 01:19:02,639
Speaker 2: gotten Trump though, just a a conservative senator who breaks

1512
01:19:02,760 --> 01:19:06,719
Speaker 2: them on Ukraine and doesn't in terriff like yeah, tariffs

1513
01:19:06,720 --> 01:19:09,360
Speaker 2: and no, he got somebody who already had a Rob Portman.

1514
01:19:09,439 --> 01:19:12,200
Speaker 2: He didn't want another Rob Portman. He got a zealous

1515
01:19:12,240 --> 01:19:14,400
Speaker 2: convert who's with him on everything. So is it worth?

1516
01:19:14,439 --> 01:19:18,080
Speaker 2: I mean Jim de Mint had this quote especially. I

1517
01:19:18,120 --> 01:19:19,960
Speaker 2: think this quote got blown up because this was the

1518
01:19:20,280 --> 01:19:22,280
Speaker 2: at the height of the Mitch McConnell Senate warriers where

1519
01:19:22,280 --> 01:19:24,400
Speaker 2: he wanted to discredit Jim Dimitt and the Conservatives. But

1520
01:19:24,439 --> 01:19:28,040
Speaker 2: the men said, I'd rather have you know, uh, He'd

1521
01:19:28,080 --> 01:19:32,120
Speaker 2: rather have a thirty yeah like man and senators than

1522
01:19:32,160 --> 01:19:35,519
Speaker 2: sixty WinPY Republicans. And they said that's a loser mentality.

1523
01:19:35,680 --> 01:19:38,360
Speaker 2: We don't want thirty. But it turns out, what's uh

1524
01:19:38,720 --> 01:19:41,599
Speaker 2: fifty three Republicans of whom two of them want want

1525
01:19:41,600 --> 01:19:43,280
Speaker 2: to break with Trump on some things, turns out to

1526
01:19:43,280 --> 01:19:45,880
Speaker 2: get you everything you want. You have, you can still

1527
01:19:45,920 --> 01:19:48,320
Speaker 2: get your Mitch McConnell gets to vote against nominees and

1528
01:19:48,320 --> 01:19:50,200
Speaker 2: give a statement about it. And Tom Tillis gets to

1529
01:19:50,200 --> 01:19:51,679
Speaker 2: do his interviews where he says he has a problem

1530
01:19:51,720 --> 01:19:53,400
Speaker 2: with Trump, but you mostly get what you want. It

1531
01:19:53,439 --> 01:19:56,600
Speaker 2: turns out, and this is the experience Democrats had. It

1532
01:19:56,640 --> 01:20:00,639
Speaker 2: turns out, I mean had had really had like Al Cunningham,

1533
01:20:01,080 --> 01:20:03,160
Speaker 2: she just kept in his pants in twenty twenty and

1534
01:20:03,200 --> 01:20:07,240
Speaker 2: they had one more Senate seat in twenty twenty one.

1535
01:20:08,200 --> 01:20:11,320
Speaker 2: Trillions more dollars could have passed, and not because it

1536
01:20:11,320 --> 01:20:14,400
Speaker 2: didn't require building party just May didn't need Roy. How

1537
01:20:14,439 --> 01:20:16,639
Speaker 2: bad it would do you need Joe Mansion's vote? Right?

1538
01:20:16,720 --> 01:20:20,160
Speaker 1: Yes, Donald Trump doesn't need Asa Murkowski's vote and doesn't

1539
01:20:20,200 --> 01:20:23,280
Speaker 1: need Susan Collins's vote, right, he has put himself at

1540
01:20:23,280 --> 01:20:26,320
Speaker 1: a position where the swing votes are now Mitch McConnell

1541
01:20:26,360 --> 01:20:28,000
Speaker 1: and Tom Tillis and Bill Cassidy.

1542
01:20:28,360 --> 01:20:31,559
Speaker 2: He'll take that of the week. Yeah, so he But

1543
01:20:31,600 --> 01:20:34,200
Speaker 2: will he involved lest because for really their osoff is

1544
01:20:34,240 --> 01:20:36,640
Speaker 2: it osof is the only Democrat running for election to

1545
01:20:36,720 --> 01:20:40,160
Speaker 2: the Senate in Michigan. He's been pretty successful. Man. He

1546
01:20:40,200 --> 01:20:42,360
Speaker 2: didn't people think he cleared he cleared the field for

1547
01:20:42,400 --> 01:20:46,280
Speaker 2: Mike Rodgers in twenty twenty two four. Rather he didn't quite.

1548
01:20:46,280 --> 01:20:48,160
Speaker 2: There's still were people who kept run against Bike Rodgers

1549
01:20:48,240 --> 01:20:50,840
Speaker 2: just didn't matter because Trump endorsed him. So he will

1550
01:20:50,840 --> 01:20:53,200
Speaker 2: get the candidates he wants. And it's really those kind

1551
01:20:53,200 --> 01:20:56,840
Speaker 2: of rogers, guys who genuflect to Trump and are willing

1552
01:20:56,920 --> 01:20:59,360
Speaker 2: to support whatever he does, even if they but they

1553
01:20:59,360 --> 01:21:02,679
Speaker 2: have some other appeal beyond Trump. That's the sweet spot.

1554
01:21:02,840 --> 01:21:04,360
Speaker 2: They're going to find some of those. They have not

1555
01:21:04,360 --> 01:21:06,400
Speaker 2: found one in North Carolina. They have not found one

1556
01:21:06,760 --> 01:21:09,439
Speaker 2: in Georgia. I don't know who they could and I'm

1557
01:21:09,479 --> 01:21:11,479
Speaker 2: not just going down the entire list of people in George.

1558
01:21:11,520 --> 01:21:14,200
Speaker 2: But they did get very fixated on Brian camp and

1559
01:21:14,280 --> 01:21:16,760
Speaker 2: once he decided not to do it. Can they find

1560
01:21:16,800 --> 01:21:21,880
Speaker 2: somebody whose brand is independent of independent of Trump, but

1561
01:21:21,920 --> 01:21:25,880
Speaker 2: also endorse by Trump. They don't have somebody, obviously, And I.

1562
01:21:25,800 --> 01:21:28,200
Speaker 1: Am surprised, and I think Brian Kemp is too, that

1563
01:21:28,200 --> 01:21:30,400
Speaker 1: the Trump folks are not as interested in Derek Dooley.

1564
01:21:30,920 --> 01:21:36,640
Speaker 1: I think Derek Dooley is a smart idea because I

1565
01:21:36,680 --> 01:21:40,679
Speaker 1: think being an incumbent is a demerit r ord this year,

1566
01:21:41,160 --> 01:21:44,240
Speaker 1: and more importantly, being a congressman isn't it is a

1567
01:21:44,280 --> 01:21:46,560
Speaker 1: demerit And if I were John Assoff, I'd love to

1568
01:21:46,640 --> 01:21:49,920
Speaker 1: run against somebody whose first name is congressman versus somebody

1569
01:21:49,920 --> 01:21:51,120
Speaker 1: whose first name is coach.

1570
01:21:51,520 --> 01:21:54,840
Speaker 2: Okay, like it's congressman who's the son of a congressman,

1571
01:21:54,920 --> 01:21:57,120
Speaker 2: Like I can write that that's yeah, no.

1572
01:21:57,200 --> 01:22:03,000
Speaker 1: And so I am surprised that the Chris Lasovitaz and

1573
01:22:03,160 --> 01:22:06,320
Speaker 1: and the Tony Fabrizios, who right now do have the

1574
01:22:06,360 --> 01:22:09,120
Speaker 1: presidency here on some of these things, and and uh

1575
01:22:09,320 --> 01:22:13,720
Speaker 1: is it? And Blair the political director don't see the

1576
01:22:13,840 --> 01:22:16,839
Speaker 1: value in coach Duley versus Congressman Collins.

1577
01:22:17,760 --> 01:22:21,599
Speaker 2: You know, on that front, it's it's the most the

1578
01:22:21,600 --> 01:22:24,879
Speaker 2: best intro, the best bio for candidates. I'm an independent

1579
01:22:24,920 --> 01:22:27,519
Speaker 2: businessman and like Donald Trump, I'm fed up with the

1580
01:22:27,640 --> 01:22:31,439
Speaker 2: establishment and I'm it to Washington. Absolutely. And there are

1581
01:22:31,479 --> 01:22:33,720
Speaker 2: those people throughout these states. It's just who of them?

1582
01:22:34,080 --> 01:22:37,559
Speaker 2: Who of them can? Cause you know, podcasts actually good

1583
01:22:37,600 --> 01:22:39,800
Speaker 2: training for some of the guys who can go on

1584
01:22:39,920 --> 01:22:41,320
Speaker 2: and kind of riff for an hour. In terms of

1585
01:22:41,439 --> 01:22:45,880
Speaker 2: you knows, all right, those guys I think always need

1586
01:22:45,960 --> 01:22:48,640
Speaker 2: to be in the mix. Hey, you're the NBC all

1587
01:22:48,640 --> 01:22:50,479
Speaker 2: the time. He might run for sent Yes, I'm.

1588
01:22:50,320 --> 01:22:52,040
Speaker 1: Gonna push my elvelope here a little bit, but let's

1589
01:22:52,040 --> 01:22:54,000
Speaker 1: do I'm gonna try to do lightning around. Let's try

1590
01:22:54,040 --> 01:22:58,440
Speaker 1: to finish up in seven minutes. Tennessee special in December.

1591
01:22:59,120 --> 01:23:02,200
Speaker 1: Percentage chains that becomes a special election we all carry

1592
01:23:02,520 --> 01:23:05,559
Speaker 1: care about come December. Second, because it may show something.

1593
01:23:05,600 --> 01:23:08,519
Speaker 1: This is a little bit of suburbs of Nashville. It

1594
01:23:08,600 --> 01:23:11,120
Speaker 1: has all the makings. I look at it as if

1595
01:23:11,160 --> 01:23:14,920
Speaker 1: Democrats can't make it interesting. I actually see that as

1596
01:23:14,920 --> 01:23:17,080
Speaker 1: a yellow flag for the midterm. What say you am

1597
01:23:17,080 --> 01:23:18,200
Speaker 1: I overranke rating it?

1598
01:23:18,760 --> 01:23:21,599
Speaker 2: Do you want it a chance? I'd say fifty percent chance.

1599
01:23:22,560 --> 01:23:25,240
Speaker 2: I think that's another state where Republicans have run it

1600
01:23:25,280 --> 01:23:28,120
Speaker 2: for so long and they're so euburistic. And Andy Ogoles

1601
01:23:28,200 --> 01:23:29,960
Speaker 2: is the guy who won the other safe seat they

1602
01:23:30,040 --> 01:23:31,599
Speaker 2: drew at a go when they carved it up Nashville,

1603
01:23:31,640 --> 01:23:34,479
Speaker 2: and he's mediocre. If they get a mediocre candidate, Democrats

1604
01:23:34,520 --> 01:23:36,040
Speaker 2: will have a good one. Yeah, that's it's say fifty

1605
01:23:36,040 --> 01:23:38,040
Speaker 2: to fifty that beat. I could see that becoming like

1606
01:23:38,080 --> 01:23:40,920
Speaker 2: a five point race. And everybody's like, whoa, right, Like,

1607
01:23:40,960 --> 01:23:43,000
Speaker 2: I don't expect Democrats to win it. I'm talking about that.

1608
01:23:43,080 --> 01:23:46,000
Speaker 1: It's a you're like, uh oh, they've got to send

1609
01:23:46,200 --> 01:23:51,680
Speaker 1: they got to do something. Second thing is other than

1610
01:23:51,800 --> 01:23:54,800
Speaker 1: Ran Paul and Glenn Youngkin. Have you seen anybody else

1611
01:23:54,880 --> 01:23:55,479
Speaker 1: on the.

1612
01:23:55,600 --> 01:24:00,519
Speaker 2: Republican twenty twenty eight presidential primary trail?

1613
01:24:00,640 --> 01:24:04,120
Speaker 1: Like I said, Paul's out there, he's decided. It's pretty

1614
01:24:04,120 --> 01:24:07,000
Speaker 1: clear to me he's decided he's running. And Youngkin obviously

1615
01:24:07,000 --> 01:24:11,599
Speaker 1: went to Iowa. And then of course there's Christy Nomes

1616
01:24:13,080 --> 01:24:17,519
Speaker 1: obvious campaign on Cosplay primary. But in you know, there's

1617
01:24:17,560 --> 01:24:21,880
Speaker 1: this sub primary of the Trump cabinet right vance Rubyo Nome,

1618
01:24:22,640 --> 01:24:25,000
Speaker 1: you know, and I throw Howard Lutnik in there.

1619
01:24:25,040 --> 01:24:27,960
Speaker 2: I think he's gonna I think he's got an ego

1620
01:24:28,000 --> 01:24:32,160
Speaker 2: that is just only going to grow. But who else?

1621
01:24:32,200 --> 01:24:35,320
Speaker 2: Have you seen anybody else that you know? I haven't, Like,

1622
01:24:35,360 --> 01:24:37,200
Speaker 2: I expect Josh Holly to run for president, but I

1623
01:24:37,200 --> 01:24:39,360
Speaker 2: haven't seen him do the things that somebody would be

1624
01:24:39,400 --> 01:24:42,000
Speaker 2: doing right now to run for president. No, there was

1625
01:24:42,040 --> 01:24:45,599
Speaker 2: a float around Mike Brown, who just got elected Governor

1626
01:24:45,680 --> 01:24:47,680
Speaker 2: Van Diama. He shot it down pretty fast, didn't He

1627
01:24:47,920 --> 01:24:50,599
Speaker 2: shot it down very quickly. I've not seen anyone else

1628
01:24:50,640 --> 01:24:54,080
Speaker 2: getting into that that mix. Even the Trump kids, they'll

1629
01:24:54,080 --> 01:24:58,960
Speaker 2: get pulled. Not really. I feel that it's not because

1630
01:24:58,960 --> 01:25:02,000
Speaker 2: they're afraid of Trump stepping in and defending Dadie Vance

1631
01:25:02,000 --> 01:25:06,200
Speaker 2: and attacking them. I just haven't seen it yet. No,

1632
01:25:06,680 --> 01:25:08,880
Speaker 2: you're not missing anything. I've not seen a Republican that

1633
01:25:08,880 --> 01:25:11,320
Speaker 2: we've not heard of get in and put himself out

1634
01:25:11,360 --> 01:25:13,760
Speaker 2: as a as somebody that donors might want to be

1635
01:25:13,760 --> 01:25:17,000
Speaker 2: interested in. They might be underplaying it because it's it's

1636
01:25:17,040 --> 01:25:20,960
Speaker 2: I think Vance is a strong vice president in that position,

1637
01:25:21,880 --> 01:25:24,960
Speaker 2: but not invincible and does not have the independent appeal

1638
01:25:25,000 --> 01:25:27,920
Speaker 2: of Trump so young can. I mean not surprising that

1639
01:25:27,960 --> 01:25:32,280
Speaker 2: the former Carlisle is being entrepreneurial, but nobody else yet.

1640
01:25:32,560 --> 01:25:35,240
Speaker 1: No, I mean it's like I could picture a primary

1641
01:25:35,280 --> 01:25:38,400
Speaker 1: field that looked a lot like twenty sixteen Democrats, like

1642
01:25:38,479 --> 01:25:41,439
Speaker 1: four or five people, only an obvious front runner, and

1643
01:25:41,479 --> 01:25:44,320
Speaker 1: then somebody that catches fire that you don't expect. Right,

1644
01:25:44,360 --> 01:25:48,000
Speaker 1: if you told me Vance Paul was a really close primary,

1645
01:25:49,080 --> 01:25:51,920
Speaker 1: I wouldn't be totally blown away. I'd be more surprised

1646
01:25:51,960 --> 01:25:55,360
Speaker 1: if it were Vance Youngkin having a dueling it out.

1647
01:25:55,400 --> 01:26:00,040
Speaker 1: I guess Youngkin is such an on paper candidate and

1648
01:25:59,760 --> 01:26:03,280
Speaker 1: that and we've seen I've seen those guys implode in

1649
01:26:03,320 --> 01:26:06,600
Speaker 1: the past. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'm not. I'm not

1650
01:26:06,640 --> 01:26:09,920
Speaker 1: as sold into Paul. I never underestimate I never underestimate

1651
01:26:09,960 --> 01:26:13,360
Speaker 1: the Paul family. They have a following that's durable.

1652
01:26:14,640 --> 01:26:18,200
Speaker 2: And I will see the conditions are. But look how

1653
01:26:18,280 --> 01:26:20,679
Speaker 2: much how much are Repulican voters actually gonna care about

1654
01:26:20,680 --> 01:26:24,040
Speaker 2: the debt in twenty twenty eight after another future You're

1655
01:26:24,040 --> 01:26:26,920
Speaker 2: thrown onto it, right, I see openings for him. I

1656
01:26:26,920 --> 01:26:29,600
Speaker 2: don't know the foreign policy situation. Trump overpromised what he

1657
01:26:29,640 --> 01:26:32,360
Speaker 2: was going to get done. I've see some openings, But

1658
01:26:32,400 --> 01:26:36,200
Speaker 2: you're really in a world where Trump won the midterms

1659
01:26:36,240 --> 01:26:38,240
Speaker 2: partly for the detective jerry mandering, harder to see in

1660
01:26:38,240 --> 01:26:41,000
Speaker 2: a world where Trump and Dvance are on defense from

1661
01:26:41,200 --> 01:26:42,840
Speaker 2: for the next two years. I mean, go back to

1662
01:26:42,840 --> 01:26:46,280
Speaker 2: George Bush and eighty eight, who really had trumple luck

1663
01:26:46,280 --> 01:26:49,000
Speaker 2: in that nomination down when he was there to a

1664
01:26:49,040 --> 01:26:50,800
Speaker 2: very popular president, right, but.

1665
01:26:51,320 --> 01:26:53,160
Speaker 1: He was always going to get the benefit of the doubt.

1666
01:26:53,240 --> 01:26:55,439
Speaker 1: He was still Ronald Reagan's vice president and Bob Ble

1667
01:26:55,560 --> 01:26:57,920
Speaker 1: wasn't He was still Ronald Reagan's vice president and Jack

1668
01:26:57,960 --> 01:26:58,559
Speaker 1: Kemp wasn't.

1669
01:26:58,760 --> 01:27:01,280
Speaker 2: Right. I've always said that should have been Jack Kemp's nomination.

1670
01:27:01,520 --> 01:27:03,720
Speaker 1: He was the true Ara apparent to the Reagan If

1671
01:27:03,760 --> 01:27:05,960
Speaker 1: you talk to anybody that worked in the Reagan White House,

1672
01:27:06,040 --> 01:27:08,800
Speaker 1: they viewed campus that true Ara parent. That doesn't mean

1673
01:27:08,840 --> 01:27:12,040
Speaker 1: you can voters voters see the words vice president and think, oh,

1674
01:27:12,120 --> 01:27:16,400
Speaker 1: I'm okay with that on and let me get you

1675
01:27:16,439 --> 01:27:19,080
Speaker 1: out of here on this because I think it has

1676
01:27:19,160 --> 01:27:23,360
Speaker 1: to do potentially, why do you think there's so many

1677
01:27:23,400 --> 01:27:26,880
Speaker 1: interested Democrats in running for Iowa Senate, Like of all

1678
01:27:26,960 --> 01:27:30,000
Speaker 1: places where we're seeing and they're all what's interesting about

1679
01:27:30,000 --> 01:27:33,120
Speaker 1: the four candidates three are already in one is pondering.

1680
01:27:33,960 --> 01:27:36,559
Speaker 2: They're all kind of the same candidate. They're running as

1681
01:27:36,640 --> 01:27:39,400
Speaker 2: new types of Democrats. They're on the younger side.

1682
01:27:41,560 --> 01:27:46,719
Speaker 1: They're culturally less progressive and liberal, right, you know, it's

1683
01:27:46,840 --> 01:27:50,799
Speaker 1: fascinating to me, And you're like, guys, you know, shouldn't

1684
01:27:50,800 --> 01:27:52,320
Speaker 1: one of you run for state treasury and one of

1685
01:27:52,360 --> 01:27:53,960
Speaker 1: you run for the attorney general or run of you

1686
01:27:54,000 --> 01:27:56,120
Speaker 1: what for a House an open house seat in the

1687
01:27:56,160 --> 01:27:57,519
Speaker 1: fourth or whatever it is.

1688
01:27:58,080 --> 01:27:59,559
Speaker 2: What do you make of that? Is that all?

1689
01:27:59,720 --> 01:28:04,760
Speaker 1: Because, like I do, since Republican fatigue in the governor's mansion, right,

1690
01:28:04,800 --> 01:28:08,000
Speaker 1: I think sans Rob Saon has all the markings of

1691
01:28:08,439 --> 01:28:12,760
Speaker 1: Charlie Baker in Massachusetts, or Laura Kelly in Kansas right where, Yeah,

1692
01:28:12,800 --> 01:28:16,280
Speaker 1: there's sort of or ADYE. Basher in Kentucky. Yeah, hey,

1693
01:28:16,280 --> 01:28:18,479
Speaker 1: that guy's you know, not too liberal. He's not one

1694
01:28:18,520 --> 01:28:21,040
Speaker 1: of those national Democrats. Let's let him govern things.

1695
01:28:21,240 --> 01:28:24,240
Speaker 2: I don't like this education policy that that the you know,

1696
01:28:24,479 --> 01:28:26,720
Speaker 2: it's education that I think is the real sort of

1697
01:28:27,360 --> 01:28:28,719
Speaker 2: the issue that if Rob.

1698
01:28:28,680 --> 01:28:31,679
Speaker 1: Sayon wins, that's why he ends up winning. But I'm

1699
01:28:32,200 --> 01:28:34,360
Speaker 1: it's a head scratcher to me about the Senate race,

1700
01:28:35,400 --> 01:28:37,920
Speaker 1: other than I assume they think that she's not running.

1701
01:28:40,000 --> 01:28:46,000
Speaker 2: Yeah, they that's safe. Although most Democrats i've talked to,

1702
01:28:46,040 --> 01:28:48,880
Speaker 2: and this includes the Senate candidates. Do think she was

1703
01:28:48,920 --> 01:28:51,160
Speaker 2: a She was a more clear target than Ashley Henson,

1704
01:28:51,160 --> 01:28:53,559
Speaker 2: who they expect would run against run from the seat,

1705
01:28:54,280 --> 01:28:58,360
Speaker 2: the former former tv TV she runs to the seat.

1706
01:28:58,400 --> 01:29:01,560
Speaker 1: I bet you one or two of those Senate Democratic

1707
01:29:01,600 --> 01:29:04,080
Speaker 1: candidates jump in the nationally instancy for what it's worth.

1708
01:29:05,000 --> 01:29:07,719
Speaker 2: Uh, I think does he live? I'm thinking because Walsall

1709
01:29:07,760 --> 01:29:09,880
Speaker 2: was in Iowa City, I think he's in. He's in

1710
01:29:10,040 --> 01:29:13,599
Speaker 2: Miller Meets's Well, yeah, I'm you know, love that does

1711
01:29:13,680 --> 01:29:17,560
Speaker 2: Let's end on an exciting redistricting conversation. Yeah, yeah, I

1712
01:29:17,560 --> 01:29:19,800
Speaker 2: always city goes back and forth between whether it's in

1713
01:29:19,800 --> 01:29:21,800
Speaker 2: the first of the second, you know, depending on who's

1714
01:29:22,000 --> 01:29:25,040
Speaker 2: who got those short straw. On the Republican remander, I

1715
01:29:25,040 --> 01:29:27,680
Speaker 2: think it's it's one of a faction, a factor of

1716
01:29:27,760 --> 01:29:30,360
Speaker 2: the party at the party decline and there's no one

1717
01:29:30,360 --> 01:29:31,800
Speaker 2: in the party who can say run for this, not

1718
01:29:31,840 --> 01:29:34,560
Speaker 2: that too the man that's the Sands factor, because the

1719
01:29:34,760 --> 01:29:38,479
Speaker 2: sand Reublicans really said, I mean, if if he does

1720
01:29:38,560 --> 01:29:40,160
Speaker 2: run and when it will be. Remind me a bit

1721
01:29:40,200 --> 01:29:44,120
Speaker 2: when Republicans jerrymandered out Joe Connolly and forced to run

1722
01:29:44,120 --> 01:29:45,880
Speaker 2: for Senate, which he with Donnelly, would you, which he

1723
01:29:45,920 --> 01:29:48,599
Speaker 2: won Indiana because Republicans went on to terrors taking away

1724
01:29:48,680 --> 01:29:51,240
Speaker 2: rob Sand's powers and he said, it's nothing for me

1725
01:29:51,280 --> 01:29:53,439
Speaker 2: to run for his auto anymore. It's a run for governor.

1726
01:29:54,160 --> 01:29:57,559
Speaker 1: Oh and he's been using fiscal conservatism arguments. They are

1727
01:29:57,840 --> 01:30:00,639
Speaker 1: I mean, he's he's running on a mess that Ram

1728
01:30:00,640 --> 01:30:04,200
Speaker 1: Emmanuel would have been with Champion back in oh six.

1729
01:30:04,320 --> 01:30:08,719
Speaker 1: Run on corruption, run on you know, saving people money,

1730
01:30:08,800 --> 01:30:11,400
Speaker 1: you know, sort of run on sort of bread and

1731
01:30:11,400 --> 01:30:15,000
Speaker 1: butter issues to get you know, that's what's available to them.

1732
01:30:15,040 --> 01:30:17,160
Speaker 1: And then you throw in the fact that you know

1733
01:30:17,240 --> 01:30:20,960
Speaker 1: Kim Reynolds. You know, it's funny she's so I assume

1734
01:30:21,000 --> 01:30:23,120
Speaker 1: she's not running because she made Maga so mad by

1735
01:30:23,200 --> 01:30:27,600
Speaker 1: endorsing Desanta's And that is still a hangover inside the

1736
01:30:27,640 --> 01:30:30,120
Speaker 1: Republican Party in Iowa a little bit. But it is

1737
01:30:30,160 --> 01:30:32,719
Speaker 1: fascinating to me. You're just like, Wow, Democrats are struggling

1738
01:30:32,720 --> 01:30:35,519
Speaker 1: as a party, but somehow they have four reasonably decent

1739
01:30:35,520 --> 01:30:38,000
Speaker 1: Senate candidates showing up in Iowa. All of them are

1740
01:30:38,080 --> 01:30:43,640
Speaker 1: interesting on paper candidates. The guy and Council bluffs, the

1741
01:30:44,800 --> 01:30:48,200
Speaker 1: Chamber of Commerce guy, the baseball player, right, like they

1742
01:30:48,240 --> 01:30:51,400
Speaker 1: all have interesting one I think a Republican seat and

1743
01:30:51,439 --> 01:30:54,120
Speaker 1: a special so they all have their story. They're like

1744
01:30:54,160 --> 01:30:57,920
Speaker 1: four Molly mcmorrows, if you will out of there. So

1745
01:30:57,960 --> 01:31:00,559
Speaker 1: it's just a it's it is an other one where

1746
01:31:00,600 --> 01:31:01,880
Speaker 1: it makes me want to go to the state fair

1747
01:31:01,920 --> 01:31:04,559
Speaker 1: this year, and you know state fairs in about a week.

1748
01:31:05,200 --> 01:31:08,599
Speaker 2: And it was a diego stopping by no I I think.

1749
01:31:08,880 --> 01:31:11,800
Speaker 2: So remember Iowa has that rule where nobody gets more

1750
01:31:11,800 --> 01:31:14,759
Speaker 2: than thirty five percent in the primary. They oh convention.

1751
01:31:14,880 --> 01:31:16,800
Speaker 2: I think that's going to be if all they stay in.

1752
01:31:17,400 --> 01:31:18,840
Speaker 2: That is the irony is that it will be a

1753
01:31:18,840 --> 01:31:21,880
Speaker 2: bunch of insiders that decide this problem. Somebody might be

1754
01:31:21,960 --> 01:31:24,080
Speaker 2: convinced that they would be better off running because I

1755
01:31:24,120 --> 01:31:26,719
Speaker 2: think an agg was one that Democrats come close on before.

1756
01:31:28,080 --> 01:31:31,360
Speaker 2: But how do you sand is the kind of now

1757
01:31:31,360 --> 01:31:35,439
Speaker 2: he didn't in twenty twenty two, but the Santus brought

1758
01:31:35,439 --> 01:31:39,800
Speaker 2: this up. But Iowa and Florida were this archipelago of

1759
01:31:39,840 --> 01:31:41,479
Speaker 2: states where there was a red wave and that was

1760
01:31:41,520 --> 01:31:45,000
Speaker 2: in part because Democrats just gave up on Iowa and they.

1761
01:31:44,800 --> 01:31:46,960
Speaker 1: Gave up and Democrats gave up on Florida. Right, It

1762
01:31:46,960 --> 01:31:49,920
Speaker 1: was it was. It was more of surrender than it

1763
01:31:50,000 --> 01:31:50,920
Speaker 1: was accomplishment.

1764
01:31:50,960 --> 01:31:52,880
Speaker 2: But yeah, so this will be the first time they

1765
01:31:52,920 --> 01:31:56,599
Speaker 2: will head since Fred Hubble in twenty eighteen. A real

1766
01:31:56,640 --> 01:31:58,880
Speaker 2: candidate with real sources, and unlike Fred Hubble, who is

1767
01:31:58,960 --> 01:32:02,839
Speaker 2: running at a very culturally liberal, let's protect abortion candidate,

1768
01:32:03,080 --> 01:32:05,559
Speaker 2: sand is very different in ways you set up. Yeah,

1769
01:32:05,600 --> 01:32:08,160
Speaker 2: they're going to compete for it. Uh, there's also a

1770
01:32:08,200 --> 01:32:11,479
Speaker 2: little bit of this is their last their last chance

1771
01:32:11,520 --> 01:32:14,519
Speaker 2: to convince Democrats to maybe give them back a caucus. Oh,

1772
01:32:14,560 --> 01:32:16,439
Speaker 2: I think it's a little harder.

1773
01:32:16,479 --> 01:32:18,880
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, yeah, I think if sand wins I was

1774
01:32:18,920 --> 01:32:21,000
Speaker 1: first on the nation again, I do, and I think

1775
01:32:21,280 --> 01:32:25,160
Speaker 1: I think the Democratic Party I think there they were

1776
01:32:25,200 --> 01:32:27,639
Speaker 1: idiots to get out of Iowa because when you look

1777
01:32:27,640 --> 01:32:31,000
Speaker 1: at the problem the party has talking to rural voters, well,

1778
01:32:31,080 --> 01:32:33,400
Speaker 1: making all your candidates learn how to talk to royal

1779
01:32:33,520 --> 01:32:35,160
Speaker 1: voters might be a good idea.

1780
01:32:34,880 --> 01:32:37,400
Speaker 2: In your first in the first president of primary state.

1781
01:32:38,600 --> 01:32:40,800
Speaker 2: Although it ended up happening. Is the one thing that

1782
01:32:41,160 --> 01:32:42,800
Speaker 2: cooled them on it was who was turning up for

1783
01:32:42,800 --> 01:32:45,400
Speaker 2: the caucuses was the most progressive Democrats. So they said, hey,

1784
01:32:45,439 --> 01:32:47,160
Speaker 2: was it a good idea? They have to go around

1785
01:32:47,200 --> 01:32:49,720
Speaker 2: here and promise to stop deportations, because that's what they

1786
01:32:50,120 --> 01:32:51,759
Speaker 2: yell that area. When I was in the city.

1787
01:32:52,200 --> 01:32:54,519
Speaker 1: Their best messenger, a guy named Pete Bootajid, was the

1788
01:32:54,560 --> 01:32:57,080
Speaker 1: only one that was campaigning in eastern Iowa. And he

1789
01:32:58,040 --> 01:33:01,400
Speaker 1: arguably we can debate on who won Iowa, but he

1790
01:33:01,479 --> 01:33:06,120
Speaker 1: basically got there because he went to places that Democrats

1791
01:33:06,120 --> 01:33:06,880
Speaker 1: had stopped going to.

1792
01:33:07,840 --> 01:33:11,200
Speaker 2: I think I heard Bernie Sanders day enough times the

1793
01:33:11,240 --> 01:33:13,840
Speaker 2: winner the popular vote in Iowa. So he won the

1794
01:33:13,840 --> 01:33:15,680
Speaker 2: popular vote. Let's give him that, Yes.

1795
01:33:17,240 --> 01:33:19,880
Speaker 1: Dead Weigel, what is your favorite state fair food? You're

1796
01:33:20,000 --> 01:33:22,840
Speaker 1: you're one of the fewer campaign reporters that truly travels

1797
01:33:22,920 --> 01:33:25,040
Speaker 1: the country a lot. You've probably been to more than

1798
01:33:25,080 --> 01:33:29,360
Speaker 1: just the Iowa State Fair. Iowa State Fair, Minnesota, Minnesota

1799
01:33:29,400 --> 01:33:32,320
Speaker 1: State Fair. You know that that's a big rivalry, Indiana

1800
01:33:32,360 --> 01:33:33,960
Speaker 1: State Fair. The three of them think they have the

1801
01:33:34,000 --> 01:33:35,559
Speaker 1: best best state fairs.

1802
01:33:35,960 --> 01:33:39,559
Speaker 2: Have you been to all three? I've been to Iowa

1803
01:33:39,560 --> 01:33:43,280
Speaker 2: and Minnesota, and Minnesota's like to say, actually, you political

1804
01:33:43,240 --> 01:33:44,880
Speaker 2: reporteris don't realize that we have the best state fair.

1805
01:33:44,920 --> 01:33:48,480
Speaker 2: And I'll say, no, you do. And I've definitely the Minnesota.

1806
01:33:48,120 --> 01:33:51,280
Speaker 1: Wherever I go, right wherever I go, I will say

1807
01:33:51,320 --> 01:33:54,400
Speaker 1: it's the best state fair. You know, I'll suck up

1808
01:33:54,400 --> 01:33:56,720
Speaker 1: to the locals. Don't get me wrong. But you've been

1809
01:33:56,760 --> 01:33:59,479
Speaker 1: to both. Which one is it Minnesota or Iowa?

1810
01:34:00,680 --> 01:34:04,080
Speaker 2: I'd say Minnesota. Also remember like, no, we're disrespect to

1811
01:34:04,080 --> 01:34:06,760
Speaker 2: Iowa food. But Minnesota has that Andrew Zimmern tradition and

1812
01:34:06,760 --> 01:34:09,719
Speaker 2: they will always have not just the experimental fair food

1813
01:34:09,720 --> 01:34:12,479
Speaker 2: and the fair experimental fair food that you're eat like

1814
01:34:12,520 --> 01:34:16,800
Speaker 2: you would order it on menu anywhere. So I've like

1815
01:34:16,840 --> 01:34:22,800
Speaker 2: this the fusion Somalian like sorts of food that you

1816
01:34:22,800 --> 01:34:25,519
Speaker 2: need to do not expect. Yeah, Minnesota, that's fun. They

1817
01:34:25,600 --> 01:34:27,760
Speaker 2: change when they change the fair. They change every year.

1818
01:34:27,760 --> 01:34:29,920
Speaker 2: I will always get some cheese curds because I try

1819
01:34:29,960 --> 01:34:33,400
Speaker 2: to avoid fried stuff, but that that hot cheese curd

1820
01:34:33,479 --> 01:34:37,040
Speaker 2: in fresh brine oil unbeatable. But that's boring and there's

1821
01:34:37,080 --> 01:34:39,240
Speaker 2: usually more more exciting one once you get there. That

1822
01:34:39,280 --> 01:34:41,160
Speaker 2: competition that they had every year for the for the

1823
01:34:41,160 --> 01:34:44,840
Speaker 2: best new experimental food, just Minnesota is in. It is

1824
01:34:44,840 --> 01:34:46,600
Speaker 2: a thousand years ahead of everybody.

1825
01:34:47,120 --> 01:34:50,240
Speaker 1: So if you're a foodie, if you're a foodie, Minnesota

1826
01:34:50,280 --> 01:34:52,920
Speaker 1: is the call is with ne Minnesota is the one. Yeah,

1827
01:34:52,920 --> 01:34:57,280
Speaker 1: oh man, all right, I'm gonna I'm I'll be very curious.

1828
01:34:57,520 --> 01:34:59,240
Speaker 2: This is the weird type of thing that'll get a

1829
01:34:59,240 --> 01:35:02,040
Speaker 2: lot of feedback about. Right. We won't get any feedback

1830
01:35:02,040 --> 01:35:04,120
Speaker 2: about that, you know, all the conversation we had about

1831
01:35:04,120 --> 01:35:07,360
Speaker 2: trans issues. No, no, no no, the state Fair conversation. People

1832
01:35:07,400 --> 01:35:10,040
Speaker 2: will be more passionate about that. But I love it

1833
01:35:10,080 --> 01:35:11,000
Speaker 2: for a foodie.

1834
01:35:11,280 --> 01:35:13,200
Speaker 1: And you can go on YouTube if anybody really wants

1835
01:35:13,240 --> 01:35:15,840
Speaker 1: to see I did one year at the Iowa State Fair.

1836
01:35:16,520 --> 01:35:19,360
Speaker 1: I try one of everything. We did an experiment and

1837
01:35:19,400 --> 01:35:21,880
Speaker 1: I put it on YouTube. If your stomach can hack it,

1838
01:35:22,640 --> 01:35:25,280
Speaker 1: you can take a look at that. Dave Weigel, if

1839
01:35:25,320 --> 01:35:27,640
Speaker 1: you don't subscribe to his newsletter as I did with

1840
01:35:27,720 --> 01:35:30,519
Speaker 1: Ben Smith, I think the Semaphore newsletters number one.

1841
01:35:30,520 --> 01:35:34,599
Speaker 2: They don't make you pay. They're all free, thank you.

1842
01:35:34,720 --> 01:35:37,360
Speaker 1: Like for us independent media operations, we don't like to

1843
01:35:37,400 --> 01:35:42,720
Speaker 1: spend too much subscription money. We spend subscription money. I'm

1844
01:35:42,840 --> 01:35:45,200
Speaker 1: I'm I subscribe to a lot of papers, don't get

1845
01:35:45,200 --> 01:35:47,720
Speaker 1: me wrong, but it's free.

1846
01:35:47,920 --> 01:35:48,920
Speaker 2: It's fantastic.

1847
01:35:49,000 --> 01:35:51,720
Speaker 1: And as I said, you know, Dave, the fact that

1848
01:35:52,400 --> 01:35:54,760
Speaker 1: we've never worked together is a bummer to me.

1849
01:35:55,320 --> 01:35:57,839
Speaker 2: But I appreciate you coming on the pod. Well this counts.

1850
01:35:57,880 --> 01:36:00,760
Speaker 2: This is a podcast collaboration, so we find here you go, Well,

1851
01:36:00,800 --> 01:36:03,120
Speaker 2: I'm going to bring it back because that you know,

1852
01:36:03,160 --> 01:36:07,519
Speaker 2: there's political reporters who travel, and there's political reporters you know,

1853
01:36:07,880 --> 01:36:09,960
Speaker 2: and you travel, I know you're on the.

1854
01:36:09,920 --> 01:36:13,479
Speaker 1: Ground, and you bring a lot of nuanced to your reporting,

1855
01:36:13,479 --> 01:36:17,240
Speaker 1: which I think, frankly, strategists on both sides of the

1856
01:36:17,280 --> 01:36:19,280
Speaker 1: aisle respect a ton.

1857
01:36:20,000 --> 01:36:23,240
Speaker 2: Uh and that matters a lot. So good for Thanks

1858
01:36:23,280 --> 01:36:24,880
Speaker 2: so much, it's real pleasure to do this. Thanks.

1859
01:36:25,200 --> 01:36:26,800
Speaker 3: I'm glad we can make it work. Yeah, you got

1860
01:36:26,800 --> 01:36:37,800
Speaker 3: a brother. Thanks well.

1861
01:36:38,840 --> 01:36:40,720
Speaker 1: I hope you enjoyed that conversation with Dave. I know

1862
01:36:40,800 --> 01:36:43,800
Speaker 1: I enjoyed it because you know this is this is

1863
01:36:43,800 --> 01:36:46,720
Speaker 1: my bread and butter. I love I can go deep

1864
01:36:46,800 --> 01:36:49,000
Speaker 1: on any campaigns that you want to go.

1865
01:36:49,200 --> 01:36:53,920
Speaker 2: I love this stuff. And one thing and you heard

1866
01:36:53,960 --> 01:36:54,400
Speaker 2: me there.

1867
01:36:54,520 --> 01:36:58,920
Speaker 1: I do think there is one state that will rise

1868
01:36:59,000 --> 01:37:01,439
Speaker 1: above the rest as far as importance in the midterms,

1869
01:37:01,439 --> 01:37:03,960
Speaker 1: and it is the state of Michigan. And let me

1870
01:37:04,040 --> 01:37:06,479
Speaker 1: just say, I promise you will get I'm going to

1871
01:37:06,960 --> 01:37:09,840
Speaker 1: if you want to be as informed and as ready

1872
01:37:09,880 --> 01:37:11,160
Speaker 1: for these midterm elections.

1873
01:37:11,640 --> 01:37:14,080
Speaker 2: As you want to be stay with me on this.

1874
01:37:14,640 --> 01:37:16,560
Speaker 1: I promise you I'll get you educated in all the

1875
01:37:16,600 --> 01:37:18,760
Speaker 1: key places and we're going to be doing some deep

1876
01:37:18,800 --> 01:37:22,519
Speaker 1: diving on Michigan in the extremely near future. But let

1877
01:37:22,560 --> 01:37:25,160
Speaker 1: me take a few questions here a little ask Chuck.

1878
01:37:25,040 --> 01:37:28,720
Speaker 2: Ask Chuck, Hello, Chuck.

1879
01:37:28,760 --> 01:37:31,080
Speaker 1: I used to teach this comes from Brian Drake. Cutt

1880
01:37:31,120 --> 01:37:36,040
Speaker 1: it Brian f from track It, Massachusetts. Maybe it's track It.

1881
01:37:36,280 --> 01:37:36,680
Speaker 2: I don't know.

1882
01:37:36,760 --> 01:37:39,479
Speaker 1: I don't know this town. Hopefully I pronounced it correctly.

1883
01:37:39,479 --> 01:37:40,360
Speaker 1: My apologies if I.

1884
01:37:40,320 --> 01:37:42,639
Speaker 2: Did not, and he asked U, Hi, Chuck.

1885
01:37:42,640 --> 01:37:44,400
Speaker 1: I used to teach ap government and politics, and my

1886
01:37:44,400 --> 01:37:47,040
Speaker 1: class would watch MPTP every Sunday and we would devote

1887
01:37:47,040 --> 01:37:49,479
Speaker 1: Monday's class to discuss in the topics. Always appreciated your

1888
01:37:49,479 --> 01:37:51,439
Speaker 1: insider analysis and love to have the chance to listen

1889
01:37:51,479 --> 01:37:54,200
Speaker 1: to you without the restrictions of the sixty minute show,

1890
01:37:54,240 --> 01:37:58,080
Speaker 1: actually forty four minutes. I just read a book called

1891
01:37:58,120 --> 01:38:00,240
Speaker 1: Lucky Loser, in which the author's journalists for The York

1892
01:38:00,240 --> 01:38:03,040
Speaker 1: Times exposed Trump's solution of success. I was floored by

1893
01:38:03,040 --> 01:38:05,120
Speaker 1: how much of his life has been built on live scams,

1894
01:38:05,160 --> 01:38:07,439
Speaker 1: and wonder how so many people have been duped by him.

1895
01:38:07,479 --> 01:38:10,360
Speaker 1: Will there ever be a Toto who will pull away

1896
01:38:10,400 --> 01:38:10,880
Speaker 1: the curtain?

1897
01:38:11,640 --> 01:38:11,840
Speaker 2: You know?

1898
01:38:12,120 --> 01:38:15,720
Speaker 1: This was you get at something, Brian that I think

1899
01:38:15,840 --> 01:38:18,120
Speaker 1: was the greatest disconnect of the twenty sixteen election.

1900
01:38:20,760 --> 01:38:21,559
Speaker 2: And you know when.

1901
01:38:21,439 --> 01:38:24,080
Speaker 1: People talk about did we properly? When I say we

1902
01:38:24,240 --> 01:38:28,240
Speaker 1: the collective, we did the media properly vet Trump? And

1903
01:38:28,280 --> 01:38:32,080
Speaker 1: there was always this aspect of Trump where I think

1904
01:38:32,080 --> 01:38:34,400
Speaker 1: we all assumed everybody knew the story. This was a

1905
01:38:34,400 --> 01:38:37,880
Speaker 1: fairly famous peep you know, don't you know he bankrupted

1906
01:38:37,920 --> 01:38:40,559
Speaker 1: three casinos, don't you know he did this? And all

1907
01:38:40,600 --> 01:38:44,559
Speaker 1: of his businesses were failures. And there was certainly plenty

1908
01:38:44,560 --> 01:38:49,000
Speaker 1: of stories done about how not had they simply let

1909
01:38:49,240 --> 01:38:54,280
Speaker 1: his inheritance just accumulate interest and dividends in the stock market,

1910
01:38:54,320 --> 01:38:57,200
Speaker 1: that he'd have more money today than he did when

1911
01:38:57,240 --> 01:39:00,439
Speaker 1: he used his inheritance to try to try his hand

1912
01:39:00,520 --> 01:39:01,559
Speaker 1: at real estate development.

1913
01:39:03,720 --> 01:39:06,960
Speaker 2: And it has always been, you know, he's he's it's.

1914
01:39:07,400 --> 01:39:12,240
Speaker 1: All been, it's all been smoking mirrors with him, right

1915
01:39:12,600 --> 01:39:17,759
Speaker 1: Atlantic City was smoking mirrors. Trump Airlines was spoken mirrors.

1916
01:39:18,479 --> 01:39:20,479
Speaker 1: You know, the Apprentice, it was always he always found

1917
01:39:20,520 --> 01:39:24,520
Speaker 1: other He always found other people to finance his investments

1918
01:39:24,560 --> 01:39:27,320
Speaker 1: and stuff. Now he's not alone and of doing this.

1919
01:39:27,439 --> 01:39:33,000
Speaker 1: And you know, I did the first interview I did

1920
01:39:33,040 --> 01:39:33,360
Speaker 1: with him.

1921
01:39:34,920 --> 01:39:35,400
Speaker 2: One of the.

1922
01:39:36,920 --> 01:39:41,080
Speaker 1: Pre interview transcripts that I became obsessed with was an

1923
01:39:41,120 --> 01:39:44,200
Speaker 1: interview he gave in nineteen ninety to Playboy magazine. It

1924
01:39:44,280 --> 01:39:48,680
Speaker 1: was for a reporter writing for Playboy, obviously freelance reporter.

1925
01:39:50,479 --> 01:39:54,320
Speaker 2: But it was It was a fascinating interview because it

1926
01:39:54,360 --> 01:39:57,000
Speaker 2: was as revealing as Trump ever was about sort of

1927
01:39:57,880 --> 01:40:01,479
Speaker 2: the what was sort of referred to as the Trump Show.

1928
01:40:01,880 --> 01:40:04,840
Speaker 1: This is in nineteen ninety, before there's an apprentice, right

1929
01:40:04,920 --> 01:40:09,920
Speaker 1: before there's any of this stuff, right, And I remember,

1930
01:40:10,040 --> 01:40:13,160
Speaker 1: you know, I even repeated what I said. You know,

1931
01:40:16,680 --> 01:40:18,920
Speaker 1: the reporter asked you. I went to Trump, I said,

1932
01:40:18,920 --> 01:40:22,760
Speaker 1: the reporter asked you about you know, the yacht, the planes,

1933
01:40:22,920 --> 01:40:27,439
Speaker 1: the girls, what is all this? And he called it

1934
01:40:27,479 --> 01:40:30,160
Speaker 1: props for the This was in the ninety interview, props

1935
01:40:30,160 --> 01:40:35,200
Speaker 1: for the show. And in the interview, Trump's answer was,

1936
01:40:35,240 --> 01:40:38,639
Speaker 1: and it's been sold out every day. And I said,

1937
01:40:38,880 --> 01:40:42,000
Speaker 1: props for the show, and he goes, yeah, And I said,

1938
01:40:42,280 --> 01:40:46,000
Speaker 1: and I remember asking him, you've been compared to P. T. Barnum,

1939
01:40:46,000 --> 01:40:47,800
Speaker 1: Do you take that as a compliment, he said, I do,

1940
01:40:49,800 --> 01:40:52,640
Speaker 1: and I thought that was the as revealing of a

1941
01:40:52,720 --> 01:40:55,719
Speaker 1: moment as you could have had with them, right, Speaking

1942
01:40:55,720 --> 01:40:58,960
Speaker 1: of revealing moments, I do, I do believe that. You know,

1943
01:40:59,120 --> 01:41:02,160
Speaker 1: there's always the pictures worth a thousand words and sometimes

1944
01:41:02,280 --> 01:41:08,759
Speaker 1: videos worth a million. If you just needed one video

1945
01:41:08,880 --> 01:41:12,880
Speaker 1: to explain Donald Trump's presidency, what it likely was like,

1946
01:41:13,720 --> 01:41:15,400
Speaker 1: what was it like to work for Donald Trump? And

1947
01:41:15,479 --> 01:41:18,760
Speaker 1: what kind of person is Donald Trump? The video of

1948
01:41:18,880 --> 01:41:22,760
Speaker 1: the staffer dropping the golf ball and supposedly searching for

1949
01:41:22,800 --> 01:41:24,640
Speaker 1: the golf ball and then dropping in to make it

1950
01:41:24,680 --> 01:41:29,960
Speaker 1: easy for the president to find. I don't think you

1951
01:41:30,000 --> 01:41:34,479
Speaker 1: need anything else. I think it is one of those

1952
01:41:35,320 --> 01:41:37,760
Speaker 1: need you say more? What else do you need to

1953
01:41:37,800 --> 01:41:40,000
Speaker 1: know about him? And I remember, actually, of all people,

1954
01:41:40,000 --> 01:41:43,080
Speaker 1: it was Rush Limbaugh who once said, by the way,

1955
01:41:43,080 --> 01:41:47,559
Speaker 1: that golf golf will tell you more about a person's

1956
01:41:47,640 --> 01:41:51,519
Speaker 1: character than anything, right, because you score yourself. It's all

1957
01:41:51,560 --> 01:41:53,479
Speaker 1: the honor system. Did you find your ball?

1958
01:41:53,640 --> 01:41:56,320
Speaker 2: Oh? Yeah, I found my ball? Did you or did

1959
01:41:56,320 --> 01:41:57,000
Speaker 2: you not? Right?

1960
01:41:57,760 --> 01:42:01,439
Speaker 1: It's all self reporting. Oh that's why we're always impressed

1961
01:42:01,439 --> 01:42:05,439
Speaker 1: when a golfer penalizes themselves. No one saw it but

1962
01:42:05,520 --> 01:42:07,880
Speaker 1: of course with cameras today, there's always a chance somebody

1963
01:42:07,920 --> 01:42:11,360
Speaker 1: saw it, and so you find out who wants to

1964
01:42:11,360 --> 01:42:14,200
Speaker 1: be seen as honest before being caught, and who wants

1965
01:42:14,240 --> 01:42:18,360
Speaker 1: to only be honest after getting caught. Right, And golf

1966
01:42:18,439 --> 01:42:21,479
Speaker 1: is one of those very much reveals who you really are,

1967
01:42:21,960 --> 01:42:25,400
Speaker 1: right essentially, are you willing the cut corners? Are you

1968
01:42:25,479 --> 01:42:30,160
Speaker 1: somebody that has a foot wedge? I always say ironically

1969
01:42:30,479 --> 01:42:32,840
Speaker 1: it was Russe Limbaugh, because look, I mean there's stories

1970
01:42:32,880 --> 01:42:37,280
Speaker 1: of Bill Clinton was a cheater at golf supposedly, right,

1971
01:42:37,360 --> 01:42:44,519
Speaker 1: you'd hear these stories, So it's a I think it's

1972
01:42:44,560 --> 01:42:48,040
Speaker 1: an incredibly revealing moment. But to go back to the

1973
01:42:48,080 --> 01:42:54,120
Speaker 1: basis of your question, when I think about all these

1974
01:42:54,240 --> 01:42:56,720
Speaker 1: I don't think you know think I don't think we

1975
01:42:57,479 --> 01:43:00,200
Speaker 1: realized that the country needed more of an education his

1976
01:43:00,200 --> 01:43:03,240
Speaker 1: business background. I think there was this weird assumption first

1977
01:43:03,479 --> 01:43:05,920
Speaker 1: when he first got in, there wasn't the typical coverage

1978
01:43:05,920 --> 01:43:07,840
Speaker 1: you get of who is Donald Trump? Do you really

1979
01:43:07,880 --> 01:43:11,600
Speaker 1: know Donald Trump? Because nobody took the candidacy seriously. It

1980
01:43:11,640 --> 01:43:14,800
Speaker 1: felt like a publicity stunt. Because most of what Donald

1981
01:43:14,800 --> 01:43:17,479
Speaker 1: Trump's done his whole life is aublicity stunt. And in fact,

1982
01:43:17,680 --> 01:43:20,160
Speaker 1: to those of us that have had to cover Donald

1983
01:43:20,200 --> 01:43:23,200
Speaker 1: Trump off and on, he was viewed as kind of

1984
01:43:24,640 --> 01:43:27,400
Speaker 1: he was viewed as that person. Oh god, I mean

1985
01:43:28,760 --> 01:43:31,400
Speaker 1: in twenty eleven, when he was floating the idea of

1986
01:43:31,439 --> 01:43:33,439
Speaker 1: running for president, it felt like we were all being

1987
01:43:33,560 --> 01:43:35,880
Speaker 1: used for just a publicity stunt for.

1988
01:43:35,880 --> 01:43:43,599
Speaker 4: Him to to to try to get NBC to pony

1989
01:43:43,640 --> 01:43:47,240
Speaker 4: up more money to renew The Apprentice.

1990
01:43:47,760 --> 01:43:50,240
Speaker 1: I remember getting a call one time, just sort of

1991
01:43:50,720 --> 01:43:53,280
Speaker 1: you know, putting him on speaker and on mute and go,

1992
01:43:53,680 --> 01:43:55,400
Speaker 1: I can't believe this guy is spending what does he

1993
01:43:55,439 --> 01:43:58,479
Speaker 1: have to do all day? Sitting here yelling at myself

1994
01:43:58,479 --> 01:44:00,680
Speaker 1: and Savannah Guthrie for thirty minutes. It's about why we

1995
01:44:00,680 --> 01:44:04,280
Speaker 1: should take them more seriously as a presidential candidate. Now, obviously,

1996
01:44:04,280 --> 01:44:06,559
Speaker 1: in hindsight, yeah, we should have. You know, what we

1997
01:44:06,560 --> 01:44:09,160
Speaker 1: should have taken seriously was not Trump, but it was

1998
01:44:09,160 --> 01:44:11,599
Speaker 1: the appeal of Donald Trump, right. That was that That's

1999
01:44:11,640 --> 01:44:14,840
Speaker 1: been you know to me, that's the that's disconnect number one.

2000
01:44:14,960 --> 01:44:17,240
Speaker 1: But disconnect number two is we did not we made

2001
01:44:17,240 --> 01:44:20,760
Speaker 1: too many assumptions that the what we we kind of

2002
01:44:20,880 --> 01:44:23,240
Speaker 1: knew Trump was was sort.

2003
01:44:23,000 --> 01:44:23,439
Speaker 2: Of this.

2004
01:44:24,800 --> 01:44:26,519
Speaker 1: I don't know what you want to call him, P T.

2005
01:44:26,680 --> 01:44:30,719
Speaker 1: Barnum phony, and we just assumed everybody else did too.

2006
01:44:32,080 --> 01:44:34,280
Speaker 1: And I think that if we had treated him as

2007
01:44:34,280 --> 01:44:39,519
Speaker 1: if he were Donald Smith, you know, a self proclaimed

2008
01:44:39,560 --> 01:44:42,280
Speaker 1: billionaire that people don't know a lot about, and you

2009
01:44:42,400 --> 01:44:45,559
Speaker 1: sort of were uncovering here's here was, here's how this

2010
01:44:45,600 --> 01:44:50,599
Speaker 1: deal really worked, and his this deal really worked. Perhaps

2011
01:44:50,680 --> 01:44:53,720
Speaker 1: voters see this version of him, you know, perhaps you

2012
01:44:53,720 --> 01:44:57,200
Speaker 1: don't need to pray for Toto to come in. But

2013
01:44:57,320 --> 01:44:59,400
Speaker 1: there's also a part of me that thinks that that

2014
01:44:59,479 --> 01:45:02,640
Speaker 1: this is something that maybe not that it will be

2015
01:45:02,760 --> 01:45:05,240
Speaker 1: like the Wizard of Oz. It'll be the end of

2016
01:45:05,280 --> 01:45:11,000
Speaker 1: the story when people finally all figure it out. But

2017
01:45:11,040 --> 01:45:13,840
Speaker 1: I often wonder if we collectively had sort of treated

2018
01:45:13,920 --> 01:45:17,280
Speaker 1: him as a candidate, that we didn't assume everybody knew,

2019
01:45:18,240 --> 01:45:21,000
Speaker 1: that we had dug into his background, as if we

2020
01:45:21,000 --> 01:45:25,080
Speaker 1: assumed the voters didn't know him. Maybe some of these

2021
01:45:25,120 --> 01:45:31,920
Speaker 1: stories hit differently, hit sooner, but you know, hindsight, right,

2022
01:45:31,960 --> 01:45:35,880
Speaker 1: what do they say? Twenty twenty next question comes from

2023
01:45:35,960 --> 01:45:39,439
Speaker 1: Jim parts unknown perhaps, and he asked us, why does

2024
01:45:39,439 --> 01:45:42,679
Speaker 1: the USA give such unconditional support to israel? I perceive

2025
01:45:42,760 --> 01:45:45,720
Speaker 1: nat Yah who's having more sway over Trump than vice versa.

2026
01:45:45,840 --> 01:45:48,679
Speaker 1: Why does the tail wag the dog here? People are suffering, starving,

2027
01:45:48,680 --> 01:45:50,640
Speaker 1: and no matter what Israel does, it seems they have

2028
01:45:50,680 --> 01:45:53,320
Speaker 1: our unconditional support. Why aren't we the one dictating the terms?

2029
01:45:53,360 --> 01:45:56,760
Speaker 1: You're asking a question that Jim Baker once asked of

2030
01:45:56,880 --> 01:45:57,600
Speaker 1: George H. W.

2031
01:45:57,800 --> 01:45:58,280
Speaker 2: Bush.

2032
01:45:58,520 --> 01:46:01,320
Speaker 1: Bill Clinton's asked that question, Barack Obamas asked that question.

2033
01:46:01,560 --> 01:46:06,320
Speaker 1: Here's the irony is that Bibi Netanyaho individually has always

2034
01:46:06,320 --> 01:46:09,360
Speaker 1: been the one that's never understood that he that he's

2035
01:46:09,360 --> 01:46:09,800
Speaker 1: supposed to.

2036
01:46:09,800 --> 01:46:12,080
Speaker 2: Be the little brother in the relationship, not the big brother.

2037
01:46:12,680 --> 01:46:16,160
Speaker 1: He always has treated the American presidents as if they

2038
01:46:16,200 --> 01:46:19,280
Speaker 1: work for him, not vice versa. So you're not wrong

2039
01:46:19,320 --> 01:46:24,280
Speaker 1: about that relationship. And what's interesting is, you know, Jim Baker,

2040
01:46:24,800 --> 01:46:27,280
Speaker 1: this is George H. W. Bush's Secretary of State famously

2041
01:46:27,360 --> 01:46:30,679
Speaker 1: barred net Yahoo from the State Department. This is before

2042
01:46:30,720 --> 01:46:33,280
Speaker 1: he was ever Prime minister, but it was sort of

2043
01:46:35,560 --> 01:46:37,959
Speaker 1: Bbe has a way of wearing out his welcome with everybody.

2044
01:46:38,040 --> 01:46:40,320
Speaker 1: Ward is welcome with Bill Clinton, Water is welcome with

2045
01:46:40,320 --> 01:46:43,040
Speaker 1: George W. Bush, Wata is welcome with Barack Obama. Warld

2046
01:46:43,120 --> 01:46:46,439
Speaker 1: is welcome with with with Donald Trump, what is welcome

2047
01:46:46,479 --> 01:46:50,760
Speaker 1: with Joe Biden, and yes, even Donald Trump, right like,

2048
01:46:50,880 --> 01:46:54,120
Speaker 1: you know, because of the posture he takes.

2049
01:46:54,160 --> 01:46:54,920
Speaker 2: So you're not wrong.

2050
01:46:55,520 --> 01:46:57,960
Speaker 1: I do think this is catching up with him, right.

2051
01:46:58,000 --> 01:47:02,479
Speaker 1: You now have a Biparson coalition growing in the House

2052
01:47:03,000 --> 01:47:07,000
Speaker 1: and then the Senate that that can't support you know,

2053
01:47:07,040 --> 01:47:10,320
Speaker 1: that supports Israel, but can't support everything Israel is doing

2054
01:47:10,320 --> 01:47:11,679
Speaker 1: militarily right now in Kasa.

2055
01:47:13,680 --> 01:47:15,800
Speaker 2: It's you know, when you know, it's funny.

2056
01:47:15,800 --> 01:47:20,840
Speaker 1: When the tide turns, it really turns. I think the

2057
01:47:20,880 --> 01:47:23,040
Speaker 1: reason why so many American presidents stood by for so

2058
01:47:23,160 --> 01:47:26,240
Speaker 1: long is it Israel. Is Israel has been the only

2059
01:47:26,280 --> 01:47:29,439
Speaker 1: democracy in the midleaus right, true democracy in the Middle East,

2060
01:47:29,439 --> 01:47:31,160
Speaker 1: And so if we're not going to stand by them,

2061
01:47:31,560 --> 01:47:32,559
Speaker 1: you know, when aren't we?

2062
01:47:32,600 --> 01:47:33,960
Speaker 2: You know, why why wouldn't we do that?

2063
01:47:37,120 --> 01:47:42,080
Speaker 1: Obviously bbi's tactics and sort of you know, what he's

2064
01:47:42,080 --> 01:47:44,160
Speaker 1: done to try to change in judiciary is even sort

2065
01:47:44,200 --> 01:47:48,640
Speaker 1: of challenging, you know, sort of what democracy is and

2066
01:47:48,720 --> 01:47:53,519
Speaker 1: looks like in the in the state of Israel. You know,

2067
01:47:53,880 --> 01:47:59,880
Speaker 1: I do think that he's he's misplayed his lever whatever

2068
01:48:00,040 --> 01:48:03,960
Speaker 1: average he believed he had over many American politicians he

2069
01:48:04,040 --> 01:48:04,559
Speaker 1: is starting.

2070
01:48:05,600 --> 01:48:06,760
Speaker 2: I think he overplayed his hand.

2071
01:48:07,600 --> 01:48:10,599
Speaker 1: I think he's gotten he's and the problem, I think

2072
01:48:10,640 --> 01:48:12,599
Speaker 1: it's pretty clear what the problem is. He is so

2073
01:48:12,800 --> 01:48:16,840
Speaker 1: worried about his own legal peril that he's afraid of

2074
01:48:16,840 --> 01:48:19,280
Speaker 1: losing power. Right the minute he loses power, the legal

2075
01:48:19,320 --> 01:48:23,360
Speaker 1: peril immediately comes back. Right, what protects him from legal

2076
01:48:23,360 --> 01:48:24,639
Speaker 1: trouble staying in power?

2077
01:48:25,000 --> 01:48:26,000
Speaker 2: What has that done?

2078
01:48:26,640 --> 01:48:30,720
Speaker 1: It is as he's alienated more and more centrists and

2079
01:48:30,760 --> 01:48:33,760
Speaker 1: then center right folks right, and he's coalitions, he's had

2080
01:48:33,760 --> 01:48:37,920
Speaker 1: to lean more heavily on far right coalitions, and his

2081
01:48:38,040 --> 01:48:39,839
Speaker 1: far right members are very radical.

2082
01:48:39,840 --> 01:48:42,240
Speaker 2: They're anti Palestinian. They have never been for the two

2083
01:48:42,280 --> 01:48:44,800
Speaker 2: state solution. I'm old enough to remember when Biebe was

2084
01:48:44,840 --> 01:48:47,200
Speaker 2: for the two state solution, and he'd never put gold

2085
01:48:47,200 --> 01:48:49,880
Speaker 2: in a coalition with anybody that wasn't for it. And

2086
01:48:49,960 --> 01:48:55,960
Speaker 2: over time, for political survival is he has partnered with

2087
01:48:56,400 --> 01:48:59,760
Speaker 2: coalition further and further to the right that in many

2088
01:48:59,840 --> 01:49:05,360
Speaker 2: ways will punish him if he isn't aggressive against Hamas,

2089
01:49:05,640 --> 01:49:13,080
Speaker 2: if he doesn't continue to expand the settlements I mean settlements. Look, Trump,

2090
01:49:13,520 --> 01:49:14,240
Speaker 2: that was one thing.

2091
01:49:14,280 --> 01:49:16,479
Speaker 1: Trump just let him have cart Blatch And I think,

2092
01:49:16,920 --> 01:49:20,439
Speaker 1: you know, Trump found common cause with net Yahoo because

2093
01:49:20,680 --> 01:49:24,080
Speaker 1: Yahoo became anti Obama. Right, So, you know, the way

2094
01:49:24,080 --> 01:49:26,320
Speaker 1: Trump is is very binary. The enemy of my enemy

2095
01:49:26,360 --> 01:49:28,760
Speaker 1: is my ally. Oh you don't like Obama? You know,

2096
01:49:28,760 --> 01:49:30,400
Speaker 1: it's just like, why did he suck up to Putin?

2097
01:49:30,520 --> 01:49:33,680
Speaker 1: Putin didn't like Hillary? You know that it may be

2098
01:49:33,840 --> 01:49:37,479
Speaker 1: the you know, maybe he's on Putin's payroll, but maybe

2099
01:49:37,479 --> 01:49:41,800
Speaker 1: he simply played favorites with Putin because Putin didn't like

2100
01:49:41,880 --> 01:49:43,960
Speaker 1: Hillary and he didn't like Hillary. And there's there's a

2101
01:49:43,960 --> 01:49:47,400
Speaker 1: part of Trump that's just very binary in his thinking

2102
01:49:47,439 --> 01:49:52,120
Speaker 1: that way. So, but I think he now realizes because

2103
01:49:52,120 --> 01:49:55,040
Speaker 1: I do think you know, Trump seemed Trump. Trump is

2104
01:49:55,120 --> 01:49:58,480
Speaker 1: moved by pictures, right, we know this, right, He believes

2105
01:49:58,600 --> 01:50:02,679
Speaker 1: in the visual. He understands visual. I think I've shared

2106
01:50:02,720 --> 01:50:04,880
Speaker 1: with you that he one time wanted to rewatch an

2107
01:50:04,920 --> 01:50:08,400
Speaker 1: interview I conducted with him without sound before, you know,

2108
01:50:08,560 --> 01:50:10,320
Speaker 1: just wanted to see what the lighting look like, see

2109
01:50:10,320 --> 01:50:10,920
Speaker 1: what he looked like.

2110
01:50:11,600 --> 01:50:12,559
Speaker 2: And you know.

2111
01:50:12,720 --> 01:50:15,559
Speaker 1: He's he cares about the visual. That's why he dresses

2112
01:50:15,680 --> 01:50:17,120
Speaker 1: exactly the same way.

2113
01:50:17,040 --> 01:50:17,920
Speaker 2: All the time. Right.

2114
01:50:17,960 --> 01:50:20,960
Speaker 1: He he believes the visual is a brand and it

2115
01:50:20,960 --> 01:50:26,000
Speaker 1: says something and the visuals coming out of Gaza are

2116
01:50:26,160 --> 01:50:28,200
Speaker 1: you know. I mean, look at how he responded to

2117
01:50:28,320 --> 01:50:30,360
Speaker 1: one of the questions. You know, I don't I know

2118
01:50:30,439 --> 01:50:33,280
Speaker 1: what the Israeli government says, and I know what I see.

2119
01:50:34,120 --> 01:50:37,680
Speaker 1: So he is moved by visuals almost more than many

2120
01:50:37,720 --> 01:50:43,240
Speaker 1: people are moved by visuals, and so it's you know,

2121
01:50:43,280 --> 01:50:45,479
Speaker 1: I don't I I you know, I think we we

2122
01:50:46,120 --> 01:50:49,080
Speaker 1: there's a lot of cynicism about Trump, and it's earned cynicism.

2123
01:50:49,120 --> 01:50:52,440
Speaker 1: I think he truly is is doesn't like being associated

2124
01:50:52,439 --> 01:50:54,559
Speaker 1: with this at all. Now, I have to tell you

2125
01:50:54,680 --> 01:50:58,840
Speaker 1: there's a there's another part of me that thinks, I

2126
01:50:59,560 --> 01:51:05,439
Speaker 1: where the United States of freaking America. Why can't we

2127
01:51:05,479 --> 01:51:08,400
Speaker 1: go in there and say, God, damn it, Hamas, We're

2128
01:51:08,400 --> 01:51:11,639
Speaker 1: coming in and we're feeding everybody, every fucking person. We're

2129
01:51:11,640 --> 01:51:13,320
Speaker 1: feeding everybody in Gaza, and what are you going to

2130
01:51:13,400 --> 01:51:15,360
Speaker 1: do about it? And we come in there like the

2131
01:51:15,479 --> 01:51:18,439
Speaker 1: mighty United States government and we're there to make sure

2132
01:51:18,479 --> 01:51:22,559
Speaker 1: everybody eats and everybody's got access to food. Who's going

2133
01:51:22,640 --> 01:51:27,240
Speaker 1: to stop us? So there's there's a part of me

2134
01:51:27,280 --> 01:51:29,640
Speaker 1: that thinks that if we want, you know, if we

2135
01:51:29,680 --> 01:51:30,280
Speaker 1: wanted to, we.

2136
01:51:30,240 --> 01:51:33,880
Speaker 2: Could could we we be putting some soldiers in harms.

2137
01:51:33,880 --> 01:51:36,240
Speaker 1: Way we might be, and that's not something that perhaps

2138
01:51:36,320 --> 01:51:38,719
Speaker 1: we have the stomach for, or perhaps the administration doesn't

2139
01:51:38,720 --> 01:51:41,040
Speaker 1: want to do. So there is a part of me

2140
01:51:41,080 --> 01:51:43,320
Speaker 1: that thinks that way about this, that like, you know what,

2141
01:51:43,479 --> 01:51:47,920
Speaker 1: you know, let's just push BB aside. We'll do it

2142
01:51:47,960 --> 01:51:51,519
Speaker 1: if he won't, you know. And that's who we are

2143
01:51:51,960 --> 01:51:55,640
Speaker 1: right where the United States, freaking America, and we're not

2144
01:51:55,640 --> 01:51:56,679
Speaker 1: going to let somebody start.

2145
01:51:56,960 --> 01:51:58,479
Speaker 2: We're not letting a population start.

2146
01:52:01,400 --> 01:52:05,880
Speaker 1: But I do think that BB has really damaged the

2147
01:52:05,880 --> 01:52:09,120
Speaker 1: politics of Israel in America. He's alienated half the Democratic

2148
01:52:09,240 --> 01:52:14,840
Speaker 1: Party by getting blatantly partisan during the Obama years. You know,

2149
01:52:16,040 --> 01:52:18,080
Speaker 1: he should be thank you very you know, he tried.

2150
01:52:18,160 --> 01:52:21,880
Speaker 1: He realized his mistake with Obama when he became the

2151
01:52:21,920 --> 01:52:24,639
Speaker 1: first world leader to congratulate Biden after his victory. He

2152
01:52:24,680 --> 01:52:30,160
Speaker 1: was he realized that he had You know, he's not stupid. Okay,

2153
01:52:30,200 --> 01:52:32,680
Speaker 1: BB's not stupid at all. He knows he made a

2154
01:52:32,680 --> 01:52:36,040
Speaker 1: political mistake. That the reason there's a rising anti Israel

2155
01:52:36,080 --> 01:52:39,960
Speaker 1: sentiment in the Democratic Party is directly because of how

2156
01:52:40,240 --> 01:52:42,800
Speaker 1: Biebe drove a wedge and sort of became a partisan,

2157
01:52:43,000 --> 01:52:47,719
Speaker 1: got involved against Obama and against Democrats in our country, right,

2158
01:52:47,920 --> 01:52:51,439
Speaker 1: got involved in politics, in partisan politics on the side

2159
01:52:51,520 --> 01:52:55,160
Speaker 1: during during the Romney campaign, and that was that did

2160
01:52:55,160 --> 01:52:57,680
Speaker 1: some real damage. In fact, I get into this with

2161
01:52:58,400 --> 01:53:02,400
Speaker 1: Richie torresm my Newsphere episode this week. If you go

2162
01:53:02,479 --> 01:53:05,320
Speaker 1: check out my interview with Richie where we talk about

2163
01:53:05,320 --> 01:53:09,840
Speaker 1: that and the damage, the long term damage politically BB

2164
01:53:10,000 --> 01:53:12,080
Speaker 1: did to Israel's standing.

2165
01:53:12,080 --> 01:53:13,400
Speaker 2: In the United States Congress.

2166
01:53:14,920 --> 01:53:18,160
Speaker 1: And you know, look, when I first started covering politics,

2167
01:53:18,760 --> 01:53:21,680
Speaker 1: it was the Republican Party that had more Israel skeptics

2168
01:53:21,680 --> 01:53:24,920
Speaker 1: than the Democratic Party. Pat Buchanan was the one of

2169
01:53:24,960 --> 01:53:28,800
Speaker 1: the leading and Bob Novak two conservative columnists who were

2170
01:53:28,800 --> 01:53:35,320
Speaker 1: both skeptical of the of this sort of unchecked support

2171
01:53:35,400 --> 01:53:39,000
Speaker 1: for Israel. Now it is interesting to see that that

2172
01:53:39,000 --> 01:53:42,040
Speaker 1: that that faction exists, and there's sort of the roots

2173
01:53:42,080 --> 01:53:45,519
Speaker 1: of MAGA I think are very Israel skeptic a little

2174
01:53:45,560 --> 01:53:49,439
Speaker 1: bit due to sort of more in the isolation is upfront,

2175
01:53:50,680 --> 01:53:55,240
Speaker 1: but you know, so this is and then the Republican

2176
01:53:55,280 --> 01:53:58,479
Speaker 1: Party became, thanks to the evangelicals, more pro Israel than

2177
01:53:58,520 --> 01:54:02,360
Speaker 1: the Democratic Party. It's possible we're starting to see this

2178
01:54:02,439 --> 01:54:08,000
Speaker 1: coalition sort of reshape itself yet again. But look, you know,

2179
01:54:08,040 --> 01:54:11,840
Speaker 1: the future of Israel's standing with the United States, I

2180
01:54:11,880 --> 01:54:14,439
Speaker 1: think depends largely on how long beating that now, who

2181
01:54:14,479 --> 01:54:15,120
Speaker 1: stays in power?

2182
01:54:17,439 --> 01:54:20,200
Speaker 2: All right? This one comes from Daniel from Fairfax. His

2183
01:54:20,360 --> 01:54:22,280
Speaker 2: question is this. In your interview with.

2184
01:54:23,880 --> 01:54:26,320
Speaker 1: Jim and Marjorie, you discussed the long history of Massachusetts

2185
01:54:26,360 --> 01:54:29,960
Speaker 1: politicians having powerful national presence with presidential potential. As a

2186
01:54:29,960 --> 01:54:32,760
Speaker 1: lifelong Virginia made me realize we haven't had a politician

2187
01:54:32,840 --> 01:54:35,160
Speaker 1: with such a profile in my lifetime. I know in

2188
01:54:35,240 --> 01:54:37,680
Speaker 1: Virginia used to be the home of presidents. Right, It's

2189
01:54:37,680 --> 01:54:42,000
Speaker 1: still I think second to Ohio in elected presidents, but

2190
01:54:42,080 --> 01:54:45,400
Speaker 1: hasn't had a president since Wilson anyway. Do you think

2191
01:54:45,400 --> 01:54:47,320
Speaker 1: that is a product of governors having a single four

2192
01:54:47,400 --> 01:54:50,120
Speaker 1: year term referring to Virginia. Is it because the Commonwealth's

2193
01:54:50,120 --> 01:54:52,680
Speaker 1: politics have been dominated by birds and warners, with the

2194
01:54:52,680 --> 01:54:55,480
Speaker 1: occasional rob Kine thrown in since the post war air

2195
01:54:55,520 --> 01:54:57,560
Speaker 1: thus making it hard for newcomers to break through, or

2196
01:54:57,800 --> 01:55:01,240
Speaker 1: given the relatively stable state wide economy, Jinay, governors not

2197
01:55:01,360 --> 01:55:05,040
Speaker 1: make lasting national impressions provided they stay out of legal trouble.

2198
01:55:05,080 --> 01:55:07,600
Speaker 2: I love the new podcast. Thanks.

2199
01:55:08,760 --> 01:55:13,320
Speaker 1: Well, look, I mean, you know, Chuck Rob was supposed

2200
01:55:13,320 --> 01:55:16,120
Speaker 1: to be the next Virginian to become president. Right, the

2201
01:55:16,440 --> 01:55:20,880
Speaker 1: Democratic Party, with the leadership of Governor Chuck Rob at

2202
01:55:20,880 --> 01:55:24,400
Speaker 1: the time, created Southern Super Tuesday, you know for the

2203
01:55:24,440 --> 01:55:30,360
Speaker 1: eighty four election, which ended up benefiting Walter. It ended

2204
01:55:30,440 --> 01:55:33,000
Speaker 1: up becoming sort of it did eventually benefit of Bill

2205
01:55:33,040 --> 01:55:36,320
Speaker 1: Clinton right come ninety two, but it was actually designed

2206
01:55:36,320 --> 01:55:38,640
Speaker 1: to help one of these Southern governors and the southern

2207
01:55:38,680 --> 01:55:43,040
Speaker 1: governor that the party, the people in the party that

2208
01:55:43,120 --> 01:55:46,680
Speaker 1: pushed for this primary calendar change and was orchestrating this

2209
01:55:46,760 --> 01:55:50,240
Speaker 1: sort of one of the first sort of races to

2210
01:55:50,480 --> 01:55:55,560
Speaker 1: early up primaries and create is the Southern Democratic governors.

2211
01:55:55,600 --> 01:55:59,720
Speaker 1: They wanted to create a primary day Super Tuesday. This

2212
01:55:59,800 --> 01:56:03,360
Speaker 1: is the original Super Tuesday was just Southern states, and

2213
01:56:03,400 --> 01:56:05,520
Speaker 1: it was the goal was to elect one of these

2214
01:56:05,520 --> 01:56:10,320
Speaker 1: Southern Democratic governors, whether it was Rubin Ascue a you know,

2215
01:56:10,320 --> 01:56:11,840
Speaker 1: you had Jimmy Carter before them, but you had a

2216
01:56:11,880 --> 01:56:14,560
Speaker 1: Rubin Ascue in Florida or Bob Graham later, you had

2217
01:56:14,560 --> 01:56:18,040
Speaker 1: a Zel Miller, you had Chuck Rob, you had Bill Clinton,

2218
01:56:18,160 --> 01:56:21,520
Speaker 1: you had Dick Riley in South Carolina.

2219
01:56:22,000 --> 01:56:24,320
Speaker 2: There was a whole series of these reform and they

2220
01:56:24,320 --> 01:56:27,760
Speaker 2: were reform governors. They were considered were from Jim Hunt

2221
01:56:27,760 --> 01:56:32,240
Speaker 2: in North Carolina, and they were all working on education policy.

2222
01:56:32,360 --> 01:56:36,000
Speaker 1: They were sort of staying at of cultural issues. And

2223
01:56:36,640 --> 01:56:39,000
Speaker 1: so Chuck Rob was that whole thing was. It was

2224
01:56:39,080 --> 01:56:41,840
Speaker 1: Chuck Rob lbj son in law that was seen as

2225
01:56:41,880 --> 01:56:45,400
Speaker 1: the future of that. And you know, in ninety two,

2226
01:56:45,440 --> 01:56:49,440
Speaker 1: Doug Wilder ran for president himself. Now he was in

2227
01:56:49,440 --> 01:56:51,560
Speaker 1: the middle of that feud with Chuck Robb, which I think,

2228
01:56:52,000 --> 01:56:55,400
Speaker 1: I do think the Chuck Rob Doug Wilder feud of

2229
01:56:55,480 --> 01:56:59,160
Speaker 1: ninety one ninety two, which by the way, is just

2230
01:56:59,200 --> 01:57:03,240
Speaker 1: a young political reporter. I mean, that's how I got

2231
01:57:03,280 --> 01:57:06,960
Speaker 1: to know Mike Allen. Mike Allen of Axio's Fame, Playbook Fame.

2232
01:57:07,320 --> 01:57:09,520
Speaker 1: He was a young cub reporter for the Richmond Times

2233
01:57:09,520 --> 01:57:12,120
Speaker 1: Dispatch and man, this was his beat. He had the

2234
01:57:12,160 --> 01:57:17,520
Speaker 1: feud the Warner they excuse me, the the Rob Wilder feud.

2235
01:57:17,880 --> 01:57:20,680
Speaker 1: One of the great inter party fights ever.

2236
01:57:21,000 --> 01:57:21,600
Speaker 2: I mean, if we.

2237
01:57:21,600 --> 01:57:24,000
Speaker 1: Had had an Internet era then, I mean there was

2238
01:57:24,560 --> 01:57:28,200
Speaker 1: secret taping, tape recordings of each other. There was a

2239
01:57:28,320 --> 01:57:31,040
Speaker 1: nude massage thrown in. I mean, if you really want

2240
01:57:31,040 --> 01:57:33,200
Speaker 1: to go down those rabbit holes. It's a it actually

2241
01:57:33,280 --> 01:57:36,080
Speaker 1: might be. You know, I've always tried to sell a

2242
01:57:36,120 --> 01:57:38,280
Speaker 1: thirty for thirty for politics. You know, this is one

2243
01:57:38,280 --> 01:57:41,920
Speaker 1: of those What if I told you that two Democratic governors,

2244
01:57:42,280 --> 01:57:44,600
Speaker 1: one who was the lieutenant governor at one point to

2245
01:57:44,760 --> 01:57:47,480
Speaker 1: the Democratic governor got into the type of fight that

2246
01:57:47,560 --> 01:57:52,560
Speaker 1: started secret tape recordings, secret you know, nude massages and

2247
01:57:53,240 --> 01:57:58,240
Speaker 1: how it, you know, upended the future of Virginia's democratic

2248
01:57:58,280 --> 01:58:03,080
Speaker 1: politics and presidential politics. So look, and Mark Warner was

2249
01:58:03,120 --> 01:58:05,680
Speaker 1: going to run for president, and then a guy named

2250
01:58:05,680 --> 01:58:07,960
Speaker 1: Barack Obama started to He was going to be the

2251
01:58:08,000 --> 01:58:11,080
Speaker 1: new media guy. He was the tech guy that was

2252
01:58:11,120 --> 01:58:12,880
Speaker 1: going to be able to talk to this new Internet

2253
01:58:12,880 --> 01:58:16,880
Speaker 1: community in six seven. Look, if Obama doesn't run, Mark

2254
01:58:16,920 --> 01:58:20,000
Speaker 1: Warner may have been that and had been a Virginian.

2255
01:58:20,080 --> 01:58:22,200
Speaker 1: So I do think some of it recently has been timing.

2256
01:58:23,400 --> 01:58:25,640
Speaker 1: Glenn Youngkin, I think is going to run in twenty eight,

2257
01:58:25,880 --> 01:58:30,760
Speaker 1: so there's another opportunity. But you know, I've never met

2258
01:58:30,760 --> 01:58:33,720
Speaker 1: a Virginia governor who liked the one term lament. They

2259
01:58:33,760 --> 01:58:36,839
Speaker 1: all think it should be, you know, and you don't. Obviously,

2260
01:58:36,880 --> 01:58:40,520
Speaker 1: you can serve non consecutively. Terry mcculloff wanted to do it.

2261
01:58:41,200 --> 01:58:44,480
Speaker 1: He just lost to Youngkin and couldn't pull it off.

2262
01:58:45,280 --> 01:58:48,200
Speaker 1: Terry mcaloff was going to run for president. He wanted

2263
01:58:48,240 --> 01:58:51,000
Speaker 1: to run for president in twenty twenty had Joe Biden

2264
01:58:51,000 --> 01:58:53,400
Speaker 1: not run, and I think had Biden not run, TERR

2265
01:58:53,480 --> 01:58:55,000
Speaker 1: mccallff would have jumped in to try to be the

2266
01:58:55,040 --> 01:59:00,960
Speaker 1: centrist candidate in that lane. So I look at and

2267
01:59:00,960 --> 01:59:03,120
Speaker 1: and Tim Kaine was Hillary. Let's not forget Tim Kane

2268
01:59:03,160 --> 01:59:07,040
Speaker 1: was Hillary Clinton's running mate, right, So I think there

2269
01:59:07,120 --> 01:59:11,920
Speaker 1: was certainly opportunities that just sort of you know, for

2270
01:59:11,960 --> 01:59:16,360
Speaker 1: a variety of reasons, specific specific folks. Look George Allen,

2271
01:59:17,280 --> 01:59:20,120
Speaker 1: you know, I profiled him early on in a Washingtonian piece.

2272
01:59:20,160 --> 01:59:23,360
Speaker 1: I remember I went to a NASCAR track with George

2273
01:59:23,400 --> 01:59:27,440
Speaker 1: Allen as he was starting to prepare for a presidential

2274
01:59:27,440 --> 01:59:29,160
Speaker 1: candidate in two thousand and eight. This was in two

2275
01:59:29,200 --> 01:59:30,680
Speaker 1: thousand and five. But he had to get through a

2276
01:59:30,720 --> 01:59:32,360
Speaker 1: reelection that most people thought was going.

2277
01:59:32,360 --> 01:59:33,040
Speaker 2: To be a cakewalk.

2278
01:59:34,000 --> 01:59:38,920
Speaker 1: Well, one Makaka moment later and he loses reelection to

2279
01:59:39,000 --> 01:59:41,200
Speaker 1: O six, to Jim Webb. And yet there's another Virginia

2280
01:59:41,240 --> 01:59:47,000
Speaker 1: politician whose presidential ambitions went up and smoked. So I

2281
01:59:47,040 --> 01:59:49,240
Speaker 1: guess what I'm telling you is, I don't think Virginian

2282
01:59:49,600 --> 01:59:52,720
Speaker 1: politicians have lost their ambition to be president.

2283
01:59:53,520 --> 01:59:56,520
Speaker 2: I just think that they for a variety of reasons.

2284
01:59:57,200 --> 02:00:00,280
Speaker 1: The timing, and that might be the argument you'd make

2285
02:00:00,480 --> 02:00:04,600
Speaker 1: is that the timing of the election calendar actually might

2286
02:00:04,680 --> 02:00:09,240
Speaker 1: be what has made it difficult for these potentially nationally

2287
02:00:09,280 --> 02:00:15,320
Speaker 1: interesting candidates to get traction in a year, you know,

2288
02:00:15,360 --> 02:00:17,160
Speaker 1: and be able to because if you think about it,

2289
02:00:17,160 --> 02:00:20,080
Speaker 1: the year before the actual presidential race is the midterm

2290
02:00:20,120 --> 02:00:22,480
Speaker 1: election year in the state of Virginia, And if you're

2291
02:00:22,520 --> 02:00:24,160
Speaker 1: a sitting governor, you got to worry about your own

2292
02:00:24,160 --> 02:00:26,000
Speaker 1: mid terms if you want to keep if you want

2293
02:00:26,040 --> 02:00:28,920
Speaker 1: to have a governing majority, or at least a non

2294
02:00:28,920 --> 02:00:34,920
Speaker 1: hostile legislature. So I think there's plenty that want to

2295
02:00:34,960 --> 02:00:37,320
Speaker 1: add their name to the list. But you know, there

2296
02:00:37,400 --> 02:00:40,360
Speaker 1: was a time, you know, I think I think, especially

2297
02:00:40,440 --> 02:00:44,880
Speaker 1: now with Jade Vance being in in the in the

2298
02:00:44,920 --> 02:00:49,680
Speaker 1: catbird seat to be the next nominee the Republican Party, Ohio's,

2299
02:00:49,880 --> 02:00:53,400
Speaker 1: Ohio's got a better chance of electing a new president

2300
02:00:53,440 --> 02:00:54,320
Speaker 1: than Virginia does.

2301
02:00:55,240 --> 02:00:57,960
Speaker 2: In that race between those two states. All right.

2302
02:00:57,960 --> 02:01:01,360
Speaker 1: Next question, speaking of Ohio, comes from Aaron Kay and Cincinnati,

2303
02:01:02,200 --> 02:01:04,360
Speaker 1: and she writes this, I may have missed this because

2304
02:01:04,400 --> 02:01:05,960
Speaker 1: I am behind a few episodes, but I thought we

2305
02:01:05,960 --> 02:01:08,040
Speaker 1: were taught growing up that redistricting was tied to the

2306
02:01:08,080 --> 02:01:11,080
Speaker 1: census every ten years and has only done once every decade,

2307
02:01:12,160 --> 02:01:14,240
Speaker 1: a year or so after the census. If that is

2308
02:01:14,280 --> 02:01:17,400
Speaker 1: the case, why can each state call a redistricting at

2309
02:01:17,440 --> 02:01:19,160
Speaker 1: whim or did they set new precedence?

2310
02:01:19,160 --> 02:01:19,880
Speaker 2: Thanks very much.

2311
02:01:20,200 --> 02:01:22,640
Speaker 1: You know, it turns out these were just norms, right.

2312
02:01:22,720 --> 02:01:24,640
Speaker 1: You know, there's a few places where it's written into

2313
02:01:24,640 --> 02:01:27,919
Speaker 1: the constitution that you can only redraw maps once a decade,

2314
02:01:28,120 --> 02:01:30,880
Speaker 1: but in most places it's not written to the state constitution.

2315
02:01:31,040 --> 02:01:35,080
Speaker 1: So then it becomes, you know, the assumption we went

2316
02:01:35,120 --> 02:01:37,440
Speaker 1: through this because you'd have a jerrymander and then a

2317
02:01:37,520 --> 02:01:40,320
Speaker 1: court would reorder a new map, right, So then you'd

2318
02:01:40,320 --> 02:01:45,600
Speaker 1: have a court order that forced this. Sometimes that's exactly

2319
02:01:45,600 --> 02:01:49,160
Speaker 1: what a legislature was intending. They wanted to force a

2320
02:01:49,200 --> 02:01:51,200
Speaker 1: court order so that they could open up the map.

2321
02:01:52,360 --> 02:01:54,960
Speaker 1: But I think that's the issue. There's nothing in the constitution.

2322
02:01:55,640 --> 02:01:58,720
Speaker 1: The constitution simply leaves it to state legislatures to decide

2323
02:01:58,720 --> 02:02:01,360
Speaker 1: the lines. They don't say how this state legislatures should

2324
02:02:01,400 --> 02:02:03,040
Speaker 1: decide the lines. Which is why if you want to

2325
02:02:03,160 --> 02:02:06,280
Speaker 1: use an outside commission to draw the lines, and then

2326
02:02:06,320 --> 02:02:09,440
Speaker 1: the legislature approves, you want to have the legislature draw it,

2327
02:02:09,680 --> 02:02:14,120
Speaker 1: so be it. But it's however the legislature deems the

2328
02:02:14,160 --> 02:02:17,480
Speaker 1: way to do it in state in said state acts.

2329
02:02:17,960 --> 02:02:21,160
Speaker 1: But look, this is the hallmark of the Trump bears.

2330
02:02:21,160 --> 02:02:23,080
Speaker 1: There was a whole bunch of things that we thought

2331
02:02:23,080 --> 02:02:25,280
Speaker 1: were there's a whole bunch of norms that we all

2332
02:02:25,320 --> 02:02:27,640
Speaker 1: treated as law, and it turns out nope, they were

2333
02:02:27,720 --> 02:02:30,560
Speaker 1: just they were just traditions we all agreed to abide

2334
02:02:30,600 --> 02:02:34,280
Speaker 1: to abide by until apparently we didn't. And I kind

2335
02:02:34,320 --> 02:02:36,640
Speaker 1: of think that's where we are in redistricting. And it's

2336
02:02:36,640 --> 02:02:39,560
Speaker 1: certainly a fear that I have, which is this tip

2337
02:02:39,600 --> 02:02:42,160
Speaker 1: for tat. I understand it strategically right.

2338
02:02:42,440 --> 02:02:42,800
Speaker 2: You know, the.

2339
02:02:42,720 --> 02:02:44,320
Speaker 1: Democrats are going to argue if they're going to do it,

2340
02:02:44,360 --> 02:02:47,200
Speaker 1: we're going to do it. But when you set a

2341
02:02:47,240 --> 02:02:49,960
Speaker 1: precedent of doing it, that's what you've just done. You've

2342
02:02:49,960 --> 02:02:52,120
Speaker 1: set a precedent and you've made it easier for the

2343
02:02:52,160 --> 02:02:53,960
Speaker 1: next legislature to say, well, if they did it, why

2344
02:02:54,040 --> 02:02:56,720
Speaker 1: can't we do it? And then once another party says yeah,

2345
02:02:56,720 --> 02:03:00,320
Speaker 1: we're going to do it too, well, then all of

2346
02:03:00,360 --> 02:03:03,800
Speaker 1: a sudden, we have you know, we have no rules, right,

2347
02:03:03,840 --> 02:03:05,960
Speaker 1: we don't have a rules based system at all. And

2348
02:03:06,000 --> 02:03:08,880
Speaker 1: then you don't have trustworthy elections. Right if you get

2349
02:03:08,920 --> 02:03:11,960
Speaker 1: to decide who your voters are, is it a democracy anymore?

2350
02:03:13,200 --> 02:03:13,320
Speaker 2: So?

2351
02:03:13,440 --> 02:03:16,280
Speaker 1: Look, this is this is why if you heard my

2352
02:03:16,320 --> 02:03:19,880
Speaker 1: friend Larry Lessig a couple a couple episodes ago where

2353
02:03:19,920 --> 02:03:22,280
Speaker 1: he and I are advocating it might be time for

2354
02:03:22,320 --> 02:03:25,480
Speaker 1: a constitutional convention where we deal with things like this,

2355
02:03:26,080 --> 02:03:28,600
Speaker 1: and that you have a constitutional amendment that is a

2356
02:03:28,640 --> 02:03:34,400
Speaker 1: bit explicit that says, you know, either create either create

2357
02:03:34,440 --> 02:03:38,240
Speaker 1: an equation for redistricting itself. Like I actually think you

2358
02:03:38,240 --> 02:03:40,160
Speaker 1: can have an equation. You know, no district should be

2359
02:03:40,400 --> 02:03:44,640
Speaker 1: more than more than ten points ten percentage points more

2360
02:03:44,680 --> 02:03:47,960
Speaker 1: Republican or Democrat than the average percentage of what a

2361
02:03:47,960 --> 02:03:51,480
Speaker 1: Democrat has gotten over a decade in the last two

2362
02:03:51,560 --> 02:03:54,920
Speaker 1: governors races and presidential races. You sort of average those numbers.

2363
02:03:54,960 --> 02:03:57,920
Speaker 1: I know I'm sitting here describing some easy math to

2364
02:03:57,960 --> 02:03:59,800
Speaker 1: go by, but I would take sort of give me

2365
02:03:59,800 --> 02:04:04,120
Speaker 1: the average democratic statewide vote among governor's races and presidential races.

2366
02:04:04,280 --> 02:04:04,640
Speaker 2: Give it the.

2367
02:04:04,760 --> 02:04:09,040
Speaker 1: Average Republican vote, and then you basically say, no district

2368
02:04:09,040 --> 02:04:13,280
Speaker 1: could be ten points more Republican or less or more democratic.

2369
02:04:13,720 --> 02:04:16,760
Speaker 1: You know, in any district you draw, you know something

2370
02:04:16,920 --> 02:04:20,200
Speaker 1: like that that you create some parameters to at least

2371
02:04:23,080 --> 02:04:25,440
Speaker 1: minimize the shenanigans.

2372
02:04:24,720 --> 02:04:29,360
Speaker 2: That are played here with redistrict. All right, I'll make

2373
02:04:29,400 --> 02:04:32,480
Speaker 2: this my last question. It comes from Los Alamos, New Mexico,

2374
02:04:32,600 --> 02:04:35,600
Speaker 2: home of the.

2375
02:04:35,440 --> 02:04:41,080
Speaker 1: Nuclear bomb and mister Oppenheimer and at all. So this

2376
02:04:41,160 --> 02:04:43,440
Speaker 1: comes from Pete d. Los Alamos, New Mexico, and he

2377
02:04:43,440 --> 02:04:45,920
Speaker 1: writes this, my biggest fear if there was a constitutional

2378
02:04:46,000 --> 02:04:49,640
Speaker 1: convention would be the death of the most important part

2379
02:04:49,640 --> 02:04:51,640
Speaker 1: of the Constitution, the First Amendment. How can we protect

2380
02:04:51,640 --> 02:04:54,280
Speaker 1: the freedoms of speech, assembly, press, and most importantly, the

2381
02:04:54,280 --> 02:04:56,680
Speaker 1: separation of church and state in a constitutional convention. I

2382
02:04:56,720 --> 02:04:59,040
Speaker 1: do not trust my fellow citizens to keep that and

2383
02:04:59,080 --> 02:05:01,400
Speaker 1: certainly not to strength it back to the founder's intent.

2384
02:05:02,640 --> 02:05:04,080
Speaker 2: Please tell me how I'm wrong.

2385
02:05:04,240 --> 02:05:06,480
Speaker 1: I guess I just look at it as that it's

2386
02:05:06,520 --> 02:05:09,680
Speaker 1: the way, you know, you still would have the same

2387
02:05:09,760 --> 02:05:13,680
Speaker 1: rules of it would take, you know, supermajorities to approve

2388
02:05:13,720 --> 02:05:18,720
Speaker 1: an amendment, supermajorities to get this done, so I think

2389
02:05:18,760 --> 02:05:23,960
Speaker 1: there would be compromises. I just don't think the first

2390
02:05:24,000 --> 02:05:27,680
Speaker 1: amendment would get messed with. I really don't. I think realistically,

2391
02:05:27,680 --> 02:05:29,920
Speaker 1: I think you get a balanced budget amendment, which would

2392
02:05:30,280 --> 02:05:32,800
Speaker 1: wreak some havoc at first on our budget, but I

2393
02:05:32,800 --> 02:05:35,680
Speaker 1: think that would I think that would get in there.

2394
02:05:35,720 --> 02:05:38,720
Speaker 1: I think you might get a campaign finance law in there.

2395
02:05:38,760 --> 02:05:41,880
Speaker 1: I think you would get term limits or age Actually,

2396
02:05:42,040 --> 02:05:44,600
Speaker 1: I think what's more likely is age limits. Right, since

2397
02:05:44,640 --> 02:05:47,160
Speaker 1: age minimums are already in the constitution, I think it

2398
02:05:47,280 --> 02:05:50,680
Speaker 1: makes it easier to sell age limits in the constitution.

2399
02:05:50,840 --> 02:05:53,520
Speaker 1: So maybe we would have it for the judiciary, for

2400
02:05:54,000 --> 02:05:55,560
Speaker 1: the Senate, for the House, et cetera.

2401
02:05:58,840 --> 02:05:59,840
Speaker 2: But I just.

2402
02:06:01,640 --> 02:06:04,640
Speaker 1: I hate the idea that you can't trust your fellow citizens.

2403
02:06:05,000 --> 02:06:08,120
Speaker 1: If we can't trust each other at a constitutional convention,

2404
02:06:09,600 --> 02:06:13,360
Speaker 1: then aren't we Isn't the Republic already lost? So I

2405
02:06:13,360 --> 02:06:19,360
Speaker 1: guess I'm I'm That's where I'm ultimately, I'm betting I'm

2406
02:06:19,400 --> 02:06:20,080
Speaker 1: the better angel.

2407
02:06:21,760 --> 02:06:22,040
Speaker 2: I'm not.

2408
02:06:22,400 --> 02:06:27,200
Speaker 1: I'm not saying you're not wrong and you're concerned. I'm

2409
02:06:27,200 --> 02:06:31,480
Speaker 1: betting on the process itself. I think I will say this.

2410
02:06:31,840 --> 02:06:36,880
Speaker 1: I think our fellow citizens, I think we all are

2411
02:06:36,920 --> 02:06:39,880
Speaker 1: more are are our patriots, you know when we're when

2412
02:06:39,880 --> 02:06:42,120
Speaker 1: we're put If we were put into a situation like that,

2413
02:06:44,800 --> 02:06:46,800
Speaker 1: I think we would be capital p patriots.

2414
02:06:47,360 --> 02:06:50,840
Speaker 2: I do. And I think that that that you know.

2415
02:06:50,920 --> 02:06:53,720
Speaker 1: The constitution, you know, now, maybe we would need to

2416
02:06:53,720 --> 02:06:57,760
Speaker 1: make sure everybody that showed up the Constitutional Convention read

2417
02:06:57,840 --> 02:07:01,400
Speaker 1: up on the actual Constitutional Convention of seventeen eighty nine

2418
02:07:02,200 --> 02:07:04,320
Speaker 1: and realize that, hey, this is going to be a

2419
02:07:04,320 --> 02:07:07,120
Speaker 1: compromise document. This isn't going to be the be all

2420
02:07:07,200 --> 02:07:09,680
Speaker 1: end all, This isn't going to favor one side or

2421
02:07:09,760 --> 02:07:13,240
Speaker 1: the other. This is going to sift out what do

2422
02:07:13,320 --> 02:07:20,200
Speaker 1: we need to update the infrastructure of our republic. So look,

2423
02:07:20,240 --> 02:07:22,440
Speaker 1: a lot of it would depend on leadership, but I

2424
02:07:22,480 --> 02:07:27,320
Speaker 1: think you can't. I guess I'm going to put my faith.

2425
02:07:28,440 --> 02:07:30,600
Speaker 1: Let me put it in another way. I trust the voters.

2426
02:07:30,840 --> 02:07:32,800
Speaker 1: There's always something to learn from the voters, even if

2427
02:07:32,840 --> 02:07:36,240
Speaker 1: I disagree with their decision, and I think our I

2428
02:07:36,280 --> 02:07:39,160
Speaker 1: think ultimately voters eventually get it right. We have two

2429
02:07:39,240 --> 02:07:42,240
Speaker 1: hundred and forty eight years with this republic. So far

2430
02:07:42,680 --> 02:07:46,440
Speaker 1: because when we've gotten it wrong, we've eventually gotten it right.

2431
02:07:46,600 --> 02:07:49,800
Speaker 1: Do we elect the McCarthy, We do, and then we

2432
02:07:49,880 --> 02:07:51,560
Speaker 1: eventually move on from McCarthy.

2433
02:07:51,640 --> 02:07:55,120
Speaker 2: So I think you have to.

2434
02:07:55,680 --> 02:07:59,080
Speaker 1: If you can't trust your fellow citizens in a constitutional convention,

2435
02:07:59,160 --> 02:08:07,320
Speaker 1: then I might argue the republic is more fragile than

2436
02:08:07,400 --> 02:08:10,280
Speaker 1: we thought. So on that uplifting note, I think I

2437
02:08:10,320 --> 02:08:14,560
Speaker 1: will end the end the mailbag portion for this episode.

2438
02:08:14,960 --> 02:08:19,080
Speaker 2: As always, I appreciate you listening, and I believe and

2439
02:08:19,160 --> 02:08:19,920
Speaker 2: this is one right.

2440
02:08:19,960 --> 02:08:22,280
Speaker 1: This is Wednesday episode, So guess what I'm going to

2441
02:08:22,280 --> 02:08:24,240
Speaker 1: see you in twenty four hours and with that until

2442
02:08:24,240 --> 02:08:24,880
Speaker 1: I upload down