WEBVTT - The Recession Was a Lie—Here’s What’s REALLY Coming! 0:00:00.320 --> 0:00:03.720 The headlines say the economy is crashing again, But what 0:00:03.760 --> 0:00:06.680 does the actual data say? Because when I dug into 0:00:06.680 --> 0:00:10.039 the numbers myself, what I found was shocking. Now, it's 0:00:10.119 --> 0:00:12.800 nothing like the headlines would have you believe. In fact, 0:00:13.200 --> 0:00:17.319 there's one stat that would flip the entire narrative upside down. 0:00:17.360 --> 0:00:20.360 And if you're just doom scrolling headlines, you're sitting there 0:00:20.400 --> 0:00:23.480 in fear, then you're gonna miss the biggest wealth window 0:00:23.680 --> 0:00:26.840 of this decade real quick. I'm Mark Mossov spent over 0:00:26.880 --> 0:00:30.280 twenty years tracking boom and bus cycles, helping investors cut 0:00:30.280 --> 0:00:32.199 through the noise to find the signal. And what I'm 0:00:32.200 --> 0:00:35.159 about to show you might completely change how you see 0:00:35.200 --> 0:00:39.920 the economy. So let's go all right, So we're gonna 0:00:39.960 --> 0:00:42.320 jump right into it, and we're gonna show you. Well, 0:00:42.479 --> 0:00:45.720 first the doomer headlines that gets all the headlines, and 0:00:45.760 --> 0:00:47.280 the reason why is it gets all the clicks. And 0:00:47.280 --> 0:00:49.280 to be honest with you, it's hard for me getting 0:00:49.320 --> 0:00:50.920 you to come watch this video if I don't have 0:00:50.960 --> 0:00:53.120 some sort of doomer. So we'll start the bad news 0:00:53.240 --> 0:00:55.480 and then we'll get to the real data. Now, the 0:00:55.520 --> 0:01:01.960 big bad doomer headline is GENIP gross domestic product went negative. Negative. 0:01:01.960 --> 0:01:05.920 Now this is after eleven quarters of positive growth. It's 0:01:05.920 --> 0:01:09.120 a big deal. Trump is crashing the economy. What is 0:01:09.160 --> 0:01:12.600 he doing? How dare he wreck the entire world economy? 0:01:12.720 --> 0:01:14.399 Don't you know that other nations are going to hate 0:01:14.400 --> 0:01:16.399 the United States and love did you trade with us? Again? 0:01:16.440 --> 0:01:20.240 And all of those things? Well? Well, yes, So here 0:01:20.360 --> 0:01:24.120 is a government statistic. This is from the BEEA, the 0:01:24.200 --> 0:01:27.200 Bureau of Economic Analysis, And what this is showing is 0:01:27.400 --> 0:01:29.880 GDP gross domestic product for the first quarter of twenty 0:01:29.920 --> 0:01:32.800 twenty five. And what they're showing is that we have 0:01:33.080 --> 0:01:36.720 now a negative quarter after all these positive quarters. This 0:01:36.560 --> 0:01:38.320 is this line here is about three percent, so a 0:01:38.319 --> 0:01:40.640 little bit less than three percent, and now we have 0:01:40.720 --> 0:01:44.280 a negative print. Boohoo. The media headlines love to pick 0:01:44.360 --> 0:01:46.640 up on this, and it's true. Now, if we go 0:01:46.720 --> 0:01:49.400 out a little bit further, you might remember this. By 0:01:49.440 --> 0:01:51.760 the way, I'm using some charts here from my friends 0:01:51.760 --> 0:01:54.320 over at the Bitcoin Layer. You should check them out. 0:01:54.360 --> 0:01:56.440 We'll link to them in the description down below. Also, 0:01:57.000 --> 0:01:59.680 my friend Pete saint Ange, we're using some stuff from 0:01:59.680 --> 0:02:01.600 his news as well. But what we can see here 0:02:01.640 --> 0:02:04.120 is that we have this negative GDP print. After all 0:02:04.200 --> 0:02:08.560 these positive gdpre prints except for this one over here. 0:02:08.800 --> 0:02:11.720 Now you might remember this one when Biden was president 0:02:12.000 --> 0:02:15.079 and everyone starts talking about the US is in a recession, 0:02:15.080 --> 0:02:19.040 and then Biden says the Biden administration says, well, that's 0:02:19.080 --> 0:02:22.840 not a technical recession. You might remember that anyway. So 0:02:23.040 --> 0:02:27.799 now we have a negative GDP print. However, that's the headline. 0:02:28.160 --> 0:02:29.760 What we want to do is we want to peel 0:02:29.840 --> 0:02:32.600 back the data, what's in the GDP so we can 0:02:32.680 --> 0:02:35.600 understand what's really going on. Is this something that we 0:02:35.600 --> 0:02:38.080 should be alarmed for or is this something that we 0:02:38.120 --> 0:02:41.880 should think about differently? Okay, so the data. We want 0:02:41.880 --> 0:02:43.239 to go into the data. That's why I show you 0:02:43.280 --> 0:02:44.680 the charts. I show you the graphs so you can 0:02:44.680 --> 0:02:46.640 see the size of the speed, all those things. And 0:02:46.720 --> 0:02:49.080 we first of all want to understand GDP. So GDP 0:02:49.280 --> 0:02:54.480 is gross domestic product g domestic product. The reason why 0:02:54.520 --> 0:02:56.600 I say that is because first of all, GDP is 0:02:56.639 --> 0:02:58.839 all messed up, Like if the government is taking money 0:02:58.840 --> 0:03:01.040 from you and I from TIMEX dollars and spending that 0:03:01.200 --> 0:03:03.680 should they be counted as gross domestic product? It's not 0:03:03.720 --> 0:03:07.760 really producing any product. It's just redistribution, right. It certainly 0:03:07.760 --> 0:03:11.720 shouldn't be counting Toyota trucks that were made overseas and 0:03:11.720 --> 0:03:13.440 then brought into the United States, and so the whole 0:03:13.480 --> 0:03:15.799 GDP basket is a little bit messed up. As a 0:03:15.880 --> 0:03:18.519 matter of fact, Howard Lutnik, the new Secretary of Commerce, 0:03:18.520 --> 0:03:21.320 says he wants to redo the entire GDB basket, which 0:03:21.360 --> 0:03:25.040 I think I'm welcoming, okay, But understanding that because it's 0:03:25.280 --> 0:03:28.240 domestic product, then we can start to understand the data. 0:03:28.240 --> 0:03:30.400 What am I talking about? Well, what we can see 0:03:30.440 --> 0:03:33.000 is that when we peel back the curtain and look 0:03:33.040 --> 0:03:36.360 at the data, what we see is that imports surged 0:03:36.760 --> 0:03:41.280 forty one percent, so again from the bea contributions to 0:03:41.440 --> 0:03:44.520 the percent change in GDP for the first quarter. And 0:03:44.560 --> 0:03:47.400 what we can see is that we have consumer spending 0:03:47.520 --> 0:03:51.160 was positive. Investment spending was big time positive. We're going 0:03:51.240 --> 0:03:55.320 to come back to that government spending was down. That 0:03:55.360 --> 0:03:58.360 should be good, right, Government spending was down and exports 0:03:58.720 --> 0:04:00.600 up a little bit. But here look at this one 0:04:00.640 --> 0:04:04.600 right here, this is a big negative. Imports. The imports 0:04:04.640 --> 0:04:07.640 were a big negative to GDP. Why because it's supposed 0:04:07.640 --> 0:04:11.360 to be domestic product. So if we're importing from someone else, 0:04:11.440 --> 0:04:13.920 that sort of takes away from the domestic product, which 0:04:14.000 --> 0:04:17.000 is why it counts as a negative. But here's the problem. 0:04:17.240 --> 0:04:20.880 We have this forty one percent surge in imports, so 0:04:20.920 --> 0:04:24.440 it takes away from GDP, giving it this negative thing. 0:04:24.440 --> 0:04:27.920 But why is this a massive surge of imports? Well 0:04:28.080 --> 0:04:32.760 because of tariffs, because tariffs were announced, massive tariffs maybe 0:04:32.800 --> 0:04:34.599 you know, one hundred and hundre percent on China, and 0:04:34.640 --> 0:04:37.000 so everybody is front rating. Everyone's trying to import all 0:04:37.040 --> 0:04:39.280 the goods they need right now because they don't know 0:04:39.320 --> 0:04:41.080 what the prices will be later. And so we have 0:04:41.160 --> 0:04:43.880 this what I'm calling a sugar rush. That's all happening now. 0:04:43.880 --> 0:04:46.560 It's important understanding this is like a one time thing. 0:04:46.960 --> 0:04:49.080 This isn't like a new trend. This is something that 0:04:49.080 --> 0:04:52.000 will continue. It's a one time thing, and it's because 0:04:52.040 --> 0:04:54.760 of this unusual circumstance of like I said, of these 0:04:54.800 --> 0:04:57.480 tariffs and not knowing what's going to be next. So 0:04:57.600 --> 0:04:59.479 what we want to do is what does that mean 0:04:59.520 --> 0:05:01.279 If it's a one time thing that was because of 0:05:01.320 --> 0:05:04.360 this tariff, it's not an ongoing thing, Well, what would 0:05:04.360 --> 0:05:07.080 happen if that wasn't there, let's take a look at that. 0:05:07.160 --> 0:05:09.080 What we can see is that all the pain was 0:05:09.080 --> 0:05:11.200 caused by a forty one percent surge of imports from 0:05:11.200 --> 0:05:15.640 Pete Saint one fronting tariffs, and this counts as negative GDP, 0:05:15.720 --> 0:05:19.400 so it counts against it the actual GDP. If we 0:05:19.520 --> 0:05:23.160 take that out, the actual GDP sored by a blistering 0:05:23.279 --> 0:05:25.719 four and a half percent. Now I just showed you 0:05:25.760 --> 0:05:29.039 the historical GDP for the last couple of years. Four 0:05:29.080 --> 0:05:32.360 and a half percent is massive. It's way bigger than 0:05:32.360 --> 0:05:34.800 we've seen in the last several years. Blistering as he 0:05:34.880 --> 0:05:37.600 calls it. But it actually gets better than that. Hold on, 0:05:37.680 --> 0:05:42.000 there's more. Because government spending dropped for the first time 0:05:42.080 --> 0:05:44.040 since twenty twenty two. I showed you that in the chart. 0:05:44.279 --> 0:05:46.400 Why is that a good thing? Well, because remember the 0:05:46.440 --> 0:05:49.839 government spending is only spending money that it's taken from 0:05:49.880 --> 0:05:51.560 you and I, So one, it shouldn't be double counted. 0:05:51.640 --> 0:05:55.239 Number two, the government's running massive deficits. So there's about 0:05:55.360 --> 0:06:00.240 two trillion roughly of spending per year that's debt into 0:06:00.279 --> 0:06:03.400 the debt. So if the government can spend less, then 0:06:03.440 --> 0:06:05.400 one we bring the debt down number one, but number two. 0:06:05.640 --> 0:06:09.960 It gets even better than that because consumer spending outpaced 0:06:10.040 --> 0:06:14.839 government spending by three point two percent. So private spending, 0:06:14.920 --> 0:06:18.720 consumer spending, that's the real data, not the government spending, 0:06:19.000 --> 0:06:21.080 not the fiscal spending. It's you and I. So that's 0:06:21.120 --> 0:06:24.599 why government went down, consumer spending picked up. This is 0:06:24.680 --> 0:06:27.200 also the best number since twenty twenty two. The Biden 0:06:27.240 --> 0:06:31.719 administration was hiring massive amounts of government workers, bringing the 0:06:31.760 --> 0:06:34.080 government spending numbers up to sort of goose the data, 0:06:34.120 --> 0:06:36.039 goost the numbers, So a lot of the bad numbers 0:06:36.040 --> 0:06:38.320 that we're seeing are getting back to like real data, 0:06:38.360 --> 0:06:40.080 which is why we're seeing the best numbers since twenty 0:06:40.080 --> 0:06:43.520 twenty two. Now, control for that dropping government spending, and 0:06:43.640 --> 0:06:47.760 the economy grew by nearly five percent. So now you 0:06:47.880 --> 0:06:51.080 take out the one time sugar rush, you adjust for 0:06:51.120 --> 0:06:54.240 the difference in consumer and government spending, and now we 0:06:54.279 --> 0:06:58.240 have an economy growing by nearly five percent. Sounds really good. 0:06:58.520 --> 0:07:00.320 There's more in the data. We're going to get to it. 0:07:00.480 --> 0:07:02.560 Remember there was one stat I was going to show you, 0:07:02.600 --> 0:07:05.240 So now we're about five percent. Now, I want to 0:07:05.240 --> 0:07:08.520 just say real quickly before we go too deep. I 0:07:08.680 --> 0:07:10.240 like to look at the data. If you're new to 0:07:10.240 --> 0:07:12.040 the channel, you may not have been watching me for 0:07:12.120 --> 0:07:14.680 very long. Here's some videos that are pulled going back 0:07:14.720 --> 0:07:18.520 to October of twenty two. Now you might remember in 0:07:18.560 --> 0:07:20.760 October of twenty twenty two, the whole world was going 0:07:20.840 --> 0:07:22.920 to end, the markets were going to crash and all 0:07:22.960 --> 0:07:24.520 these things, and I made a video said, there is 0:07:24.560 --> 0:07:28.200 no market crash coming. And here's why. The real data. 0:07:28.280 --> 0:07:30.559 The FED doesn't want you to see the data showing 0:07:30.560 --> 0:07:32.520 it's time to buy. The central banks are going to 0:07:32.560 --> 0:07:36.360 be forced into this playbook easing the markets. Breaking data 0:07:36.520 --> 0:07:38.720 shows the FED pivots here it's time to start buying. 0:07:39.120 --> 0:07:41.400 The new data tells us it's time to buy. So 0:07:41.440 --> 0:07:44.280 this is from October twenty twenty two, going all the 0:07:44.320 --> 0:07:46.480 way forward, we have one of the why aren't the 0:07:46.520 --> 0:07:49.840 markets crash coming? Breaking that down for my prediction for 0:07:49.920 --> 0:07:54.440 financial markets on and on on, bear markets canceled, on 0:07:54.480 --> 0:07:56.400 and on and on. Now that was out of time 0:07:56.440 --> 0:07:58.400 again when the whole world thought the markets were going 0:07:58.440 --> 0:08:01.520 to crash, and it was right here in the lows. 0:08:01.720 --> 0:08:04.080 October of twenty two is when I started making those videos. 0:08:04.200 --> 0:08:06.720 And of course the Nasdaq is up about one hundred 0:08:06.720 --> 0:08:11.320 percent since that time. Also some more receipts here. These 0:08:11.320 --> 0:08:13.720 are videos I made telling you was historic times to 0:08:13.760 --> 0:08:17.800 buy bitcoin six seven, twenty two, nineteen thousand, seven nineteen 0:08:17.840 --> 0:08:21.320 twenty two, nineteen thousand Bitcoin is fifteen thousand, twenty thousand, 0:08:21.400 --> 0:08:23.720 twenty six thousand. Of course, now it's up over one 0:08:23.760 --> 0:08:26.200 hundred thousand dollars or around one hundred thousand dollars right now. 0:08:26.360 --> 0:08:28.400 So I just want to show you that I haven't 0:08:28.400 --> 0:08:31.000 always been a doomer. I have the receipts to prove it, 0:08:31.000 --> 0:08:32.600 and those videos are all still up on my channel. 0:08:32.679 --> 0:08:35.240 You can go watch them. So why do I say 0:08:35.280 --> 0:08:39.160 that real quickly? Because we can look past the headlines, 0:08:39.480 --> 0:08:41.760 and look past the media, and look past the hysteria 0:08:41.840 --> 0:08:44.920 and look at the data, we see something different. Okay, 0:08:46.120 --> 0:08:47.839 Before I go on to tell you about this hidden 0:08:47.920 --> 0:08:50.199 bowl market and what the data is really telling this 0:08:50.240 --> 0:08:51.880 is going to happen, I want to let you know 0:08:51.920 --> 0:08:53.880 that next week I'm gonna have a live event like 0:08:53.920 --> 0:08:56.160 I do about every four to six weeks, where I 0:08:56.160 --> 0:08:58.120 can go into depth. Here, we'll go about an hour. 0:08:58.160 --> 0:09:00.360 I'm gonna have about thirty thirty five charts show you 0:09:00.400 --> 0:09:03.079 exactly how to apply this to your own portfolio. It's 0:09:03.080 --> 0:09:04.760 one thing to have the knowledge, but if you don't 0:09:04.760 --> 0:09:06.520 apply the knowledge, if you don't know what assets to 0:09:06.559 --> 0:09:08.880 buy to take advantage of this bull run, it doesn't 0:09:08.880 --> 0:09:10.439 really do it a lot of good. So come hang out. 0:09:10.440 --> 0:09:12.320 I'm going to break the entire case down, show you 0:09:12.320 --> 0:09:14.120 all the charts to graphs what I'm buying, and then 0:09:14.160 --> 0:09:15.920 we hang out live Q and A. It's super fun. 0:09:15.920 --> 0:09:17.920 We'll answer all your questions. It's all free. There's a 0:09:17.960 --> 0:09:19.439 link down below if you want to come join me, 0:09:19.920 --> 0:09:22.800 Join me live. Hope to see you there. But what 0:09:23.000 --> 0:09:25.679 is the data showing us? And why do I think 0:09:25.800 --> 0:09:29.679 there's a hidden bull market ready to emerge? Well, a 0:09:29.760 --> 0:09:32.600 couple of reasons again back into the data. Number one, 0:09:33.120 --> 0:09:35.720 we want to look at the private the sales to 0:09:36.000 --> 0:09:40.160 private domestic purchasers, the consumers, the private domessage purchase, the 0:09:40.360 --> 0:09:43.160 PCE and what we can see here going back to 0:09:43.280 --> 0:09:46.960 twenty twenty two, we can see that we are still 0:09:47.120 --> 0:09:49.760 above sort of normal. Right. We don't have this big 0:09:49.800 --> 0:09:51.959 sugar rush that was kind of the snapback reversion of 0:09:51.960 --> 0:09:55.120 the mean here, but we're doing really well. The market's 0:09:55.160 --> 0:09:58.000 looking actually really really strong, nothing like you would hear 0:09:58.000 --> 0:10:00.959 on the news that the consumers stretch, then the economy 0:10:01.040 --> 0:10:03.960 is crumbling all those things. So it's up three percent. 0:10:04.040 --> 0:10:07.000 We can see the PCE we can see is up 0:10:07.840 --> 0:10:11.599 one point seven nine percent. This is of personal consumption expenditures. 0:10:11.960 --> 0:10:15.360 We can see here. The green is the consumer spending 0:10:15.440 --> 0:10:18.240 services of two point almost two point four percent, the 0:10:18.360 --> 0:10:20.840 red here consumer spending goods total a little bit low, 0:10:21.360 --> 0:10:24.800 and then consumer spending non durable goods two point seven percent. Ay, 0:10:24.880 --> 0:10:28.120 small business owner, are you buried in all types of 0:10:28.120 --> 0:10:30.720 work keeping you from the real thing that makes you money? 0:10:30.760 --> 0:10:33.160 Well that's where just Works comes in. They're the all 0:10:33.160 --> 0:10:36.200 in one platform that supports small business growth. You can 0:10:36.240 --> 0:10:39.320 get all their tools that help with benefits like payroll 0:10:39.480 --> 0:10:43.600 and HR and compliance with transparent pricing. 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Again, 0:11:19.440 --> 0:11:23.680 past the headlines, past the media driven polls, and looking 0:11:23.720 --> 0:11:27.199 at the data, what we can see is that there's 0:11:27.600 --> 0:11:30.600 kind of a difference in shifting of purchases. But we 0:11:30.640 --> 0:11:32.600 can see here there's a rise in personal savings. So 0:11:32.640 --> 0:11:35.760 on top of that, personal savings has also gone up. 0:11:35.800 --> 0:11:39.400 So the consumer is still spending, they're still buying. On 0:11:39.520 --> 0:11:42.240 top of the spending. On top of the buying holding up, 0:11:42.600 --> 0:11:45.480 we have savings going up. So that tells something very different. 0:11:45.679 --> 0:11:48.120 That tells that the economy is not crumbling, that the 0:11:48.280 --> 0:11:51.319 consumer is doing pretty good. Now, look, I understand there's 0:11:51.360 --> 0:11:53.200 millions of people that are not doing good. There's also 0:11:53.240 --> 0:11:55.000 millions of people that are doing really good, and so 0:11:55.600 --> 0:11:57.360 this is not a model that everybody's a little bit different. 0:11:57.440 --> 0:12:00.280 But the data is showing us that the economy is 0:12:00.280 --> 0:12:02.480 not crumbling like they want to say it is. However, 0:12:02.720 --> 0:12:07.480 this doesn't even break down what I really think is happening. Okay, 0:12:07.600 --> 0:12:12.520 the businesses, the business spending, the business investments are going parabolic, 0:12:13.320 --> 0:12:16.600 consumers holding up. Businesses are going parabolic. Let me break 0:12:16.600 --> 0:12:19.120 what I break that down. All right, what we've seen 0:12:19.120 --> 0:12:22.000 here I talked about this on a previous video, that 0:12:22.200 --> 0:12:28.480 private investments, businesses investing into their future production, into factories 0:12:28.520 --> 0:12:31.480 and equipment things that are up twenty two percent. Twenty 0:12:31.520 --> 0:12:34.600 two percent. We are talking a massive number. This is 0:12:34.640 --> 0:12:37.199 the biggest spike since twenty twenty one. Again from my 0:12:37.240 --> 0:12:41.360 friends over the bitcoin layer. US business capital spending and 0:12:41.400 --> 0:12:44.080 so what we can see here Q one. Look how 0:12:44.120 --> 0:12:48.160 big those numbers are. Look how big those numbers are. 0:12:49.520 --> 0:12:50.920 I mean, you don't even compare. This is just on 0:12:51.040 --> 0:12:53.480 Q one. Now what does that mean for us? Well, 0:12:53.520 --> 0:12:57.120 if businesses, the smart consumer, the one that's paying attention, 0:12:57.360 --> 0:12:59.640 the one that has skinning the game, if they're making 0:12:59.760 --> 0:13:03.160 this big of investments into the future, new equipment, new buildings, 0:13:03.240 --> 0:13:06.360 new manufacturing, things like that, they are expecting big things 0:13:06.360 --> 0:13:08.400 to happen. All right, there's more to that, we'll break 0:13:08.440 --> 0:13:11.760 down that. But that's big. Equipment spending is up twenty 0:13:11.760 --> 0:13:14.680 two and a half percent. Again, this is long term thinking. 0:13:14.920 --> 0:13:18.520 This is the big businesses they see positive economic growth 0:13:18.559 --> 0:13:22.400 in the future. The big one here information processing equipment, 0:13:22.520 --> 0:13:27.000 information processing, think data centers, think computers is up seventy 0:13:27.080 --> 0:13:30.800 percent annualized. This is an all time record, all time 0:13:30.840 --> 0:13:35.400 record spending in information processing services. And I recently did 0:13:35.400 --> 0:13:39.680 a video on Trump announced eight trillion dollars has already 0:13:39.720 --> 0:13:43.120 been committed to be invested into the United States. Eight 0:13:43.160 --> 0:13:46.959 trillion dollars or twenty two percent, massive and new deals. 0:13:46.960 --> 0:13:48.600 We'll link to that video right here if you want, 0:13:48.679 --> 0:13:50.800 or check it out on the description dob the eight 0:13:50.840 --> 0:13:53.439 trillion dollar tsunami that's about to hit, we'll call it that. 0:13:53.720 --> 0:13:56.760 And really, what we're seeing is this new industrial revolution. 0:13:57.640 --> 0:14:00.280 This is just the beginning. We're eight trillion dollars just 0:14:00.280 --> 0:14:03.920 being invested into the country right now. But what does 0:14:03.960 --> 0:14:06.560 that mean? Where does it go? And so much more? Well, 0:14:06.640 --> 0:14:10.520 Number one, we have an AI boom and it's onshore 0:14:10.520 --> 0:14:13.600 and boom. So as I said, the information processing, the 0:14:13.600 --> 0:14:17.959 computers AI is driving the capex, the capital expenditures. So 0:14:18.000 --> 0:14:21.240 we have this massive surge seventy one percent on an 0:14:21.280 --> 0:14:25.400 annualized basis an all time record on that. And why 0:14:25.400 --> 0:14:27.920 do you think that is? Well, because AI is taking 0:14:27.960 --> 0:14:32.040 off so fast, we have physical compute is needed right 0:14:32.120 --> 0:14:34.480 so in order to build all these large language models, 0:14:34.480 --> 0:14:37.280 all these llms. You need lots of compute, You need 0:14:37.320 --> 0:14:40.880 lots of servers, you need warehouses, you need data centers, 0:14:40.920 --> 0:14:43.160 you need lots of materials to build these things out. 0:14:44.040 --> 0:14:45.680 We can see again. Let's take a look at a 0:14:45.760 --> 0:14:48.960 chart courtesy of the Bitcoin Layer US real private fixed 0:14:49.040 --> 0:14:54.280 investment for information processing equipment, and look at this number 0:14:54.400 --> 0:14:58.760 right here compared to some mean right here since two 0:14:58.800 --> 0:15:02.840 thousand and eight. Now, obviously AI is something new, but 0:15:02.880 --> 0:15:04.840 since two thousand and eight, we had the iPhone and 0:15:04.880 --> 0:15:07.000 we had cloud competing and all that take off as well. 0:15:07.800 --> 0:15:10.920 This is taking off at a whole nother level like 0:15:10.960 --> 0:15:13.880 we've never even seen before. And really we're seeing this 0:15:14.080 --> 0:15:16.720 new wave of onshouring. Like I said, over eight trillion 0:15:16.800 --> 0:15:19.560 dollars has been announced to be built here, and a 0:15:19.600 --> 0:15:21.760 lot of that is in this information marketing. Now, if 0:15:21.800 --> 0:15:23.960 you follow my work, it shouldn't be a big surprise 0:15:24.040 --> 0:15:26.480 to you. Of course, I always talk about the quantum 0:15:26.600 --> 0:15:30.120 leaf cycle that happens about every fifty years, and the 0:15:30.160 --> 0:15:33.360 one that is just starting. So this happened six times one, two, three, 0:15:33.520 --> 0:15:35.880 four or five. We're on the sixth one right now, 0:15:36.560 --> 0:15:39.120 and this is the decentralized revolution. This is the convergence 0:15:39.160 --> 0:15:43.560 of bitcoin and AI coming together and how they work 0:15:43.560 --> 0:15:45.120 together to give us a whole nother set of building 0:15:45.120 --> 0:15:46.840 blocks to build things that we don't even know about. 0:15:46.960 --> 0:15:49.160 So if you follow my work and you understand the cycles, 0:15:49.480 --> 0:15:52.480 this AI boom shouldn't be a big surprise. It's more 0:15:52.480 --> 0:15:55.000 of a confirmation of that. Okay, And we have this 0:15:55.040 --> 0:15:57.680 new wave of onshooring. And this is again even for 0:15:59.080 --> 0:16:01.600 blue collar workers. Right We need to build the warehouse, 0:16:01.640 --> 0:16:04.280 we need to build the data centers. It's the largest 0:16:04.440 --> 0:16:07.600 relocation of capital since World War II. I just did 0:16:07.600 --> 0:16:10.200 a video on this talking about how after World War 0:16:10.240 --> 0:16:13.320 II the US sort of had this wartime economy and reindustrialized, 0:16:14.120 --> 0:16:16.920 and now we're doing the same thing. Right now, I 0:16:17.000 --> 0:16:21.440 expect another massive era of prosperity. The reason why is 0:16:21.440 --> 0:16:24.400 because the US is becoming the global hub for this, 0:16:25.200 --> 0:16:28.479 the global hub for AI, the global hub for processing, 0:16:28.840 --> 0:16:32.320 the global hub for data processing. It's all happening right here. Okay. 0:16:32.360 --> 0:16:34.800 So that's the data with a little bit of my 0:16:34.840 --> 0:16:36.880 opinion on top of it. But the data is the data. 0:16:37.160 --> 0:16:40.520 So what we're trying to do as investors is we're 0:16:40.520 --> 0:16:43.920 trying to find the signal through all the noise, because 0:16:43.960 --> 0:16:46.640 there's plenty of noise out there. For anyone saying one thing, 0:16:46.640 --> 0:16:48.280 you can find someone saying the other. What do they 0:16:48.280 --> 0:16:50.400 say about opinions fill in the blank. I'm not going 0:16:50.440 --> 0:16:53.920 to answer that, right, But we've all this noise. And again, 0:16:54.320 --> 0:16:57.200 what gets media headlines, what gets YouTube views, what gets 0:16:57.240 --> 0:16:59.800 you to click on these videos is talking about sensational, 0:17:00.280 --> 0:17:03.080 new more stuff. But we want to find the signal, 0:17:03.080 --> 0:17:07.240 and we do that by understanding what's fact data and 0:17:07.280 --> 0:17:09.199 then what's opinion? All right, so that's what we want 0:17:09.240 --> 0:17:12.200 to understand. The noise is all the negative headlines that 0:17:12.240 --> 0:17:15.280 gets you to click, But the signal tells us something different, 0:17:15.320 --> 0:17:17.480 and we can choose to interpret the data differently. But 0:17:18.160 --> 0:17:20.280 what we can see is by looking at some of 0:17:20.280 --> 0:17:23.880 these charts, it can give us more information. So for example, 0:17:24.359 --> 0:17:26.840 when this was announced, the negative GDP print and all 0:17:26.880 --> 0:17:29.600 the news media ran into hysteria telling you how bad 0:17:29.600 --> 0:17:31.560 things are and Trump's going to crash the entire world. 0:17:31.880 --> 0:17:35.479 What we saw is that risk assets which would typically 0:17:35.520 --> 0:17:38.680 sell off quickly like the bitcoin, like S and P 0:17:38.760 --> 0:17:41.080 five hundred, for example, they didn't. They didn't sell off. 0:17:41.119 --> 0:17:43.760 As a matter of fact, they're really very resilient and 0:17:43.800 --> 0:17:46.760 they've only been going up since then. Huh. That's interesting. 0:17:47.520 --> 0:17:51.959 So the media is trying to whip us up into hysteria. 0:17:52.320 --> 0:17:54.480 The YouTubers and the Twitter people are trying to put 0:17:54.520 --> 0:17:57.280 us in that hysteria. But the data, huh, the assets 0:17:57.280 --> 0:18:00.119 were pretty resilient. We also know that if we you 0:18:00.119 --> 0:18:02.240 look at global liquidity again, if you watch my channel 0:18:02.240 --> 0:18:04.040 on a regular basis, you know that I always talk 0:18:04.080 --> 0:18:07.719 about global equidity because it's global liquidity pushes asset prices higher, 0:18:07.840 --> 0:18:09.199 so we always want to keep our eye on that. 0:18:09.880 --> 0:18:12.359 One of my favorite people to follow for global equity 0:18:12.400 --> 0:18:14.320 is Michael how This just came out a couple of 0:18:14.359 --> 0:18:18.320 days ago. Global equity is rising. That's the headline. It's rising. 0:18:18.359 --> 0:18:20.760 How much is it rising? It reached a new all 0:18:20.840 --> 0:18:23.200 time high of one hundred and seventy seven trillion dollars, 0:18:23.200 --> 0:18:25.399 a new all time high. On liquidy, it's still coming on, 0:18:25.480 --> 0:18:28.879 but it gets better. Expect the current liquidity cycle. Oh, 0:18:28.920 --> 0:18:32.840 he expected the current liquidity cycle to peak around Q 0:18:33.080 --> 0:18:35.880 four this year, so he's been talking about this. Of course, 0:18:35.920 --> 0:18:38.560 I talk about his research all the time. We typically 0:18:38.600 --> 0:18:41.119 have about these four year liquidity cycles, not to the 0:18:41.160 --> 0:18:44.120 day plus or minus. And because of that, he's been 0:18:44.160 --> 0:18:46.720 expecting it to peak sometime around the end of this year. 0:18:46.920 --> 0:18:48.960 Of course, if you're a bitcoin bowl, you understand there's 0:18:49.080 --> 0:18:51.320 four year cycles as well. It's a lot of people 0:18:51.359 --> 0:18:53.040 think that maybe bitcoin would peak around the end of 0:18:53.080 --> 0:18:56.640 this year as well. However, he says, however, the rapidly 0:18:56.680 --> 0:19:02.240 deteriorating global economy, which will likely spur central banks to 0:19:02.440 --> 0:19:06.720 ease we've already seen it, has caused us to reconsider 0:19:07.240 --> 0:19:10.320 maybe it's not gonna end twenty twenty six. All in all, 0:19:10.560 --> 0:19:13.600 we now expect the cycle to peak in mid twenty 0:19:13.680 --> 0:19:16.720 twenty six because right now the central banks are just 0:19:16.760 --> 0:19:18.760 starting to fire up their money printers, if you will. 0:19:19.280 --> 0:19:22.680 The Federal Reserve is just has just been easing lately. 0:19:22.760 --> 0:19:24.520 Right this is all getting going, and so he thought 0:19:24.520 --> 0:19:25.639 it might peak in them the year, and now I 0:19:25.680 --> 0:19:29.520 says mid twenty twenty six. And because of that, risk 0:19:29.560 --> 0:19:34.920 asset markets and liquidity sensitive cryptocurrencies. So basically risk assets 0:19:34.960 --> 0:19:42.080 bitcoin are benefiting. Hmm. Okay, so that's the data, that's 0:19:42.119 --> 0:19:45.920 the data. Global equidity is rising. We also can look 0:19:45.920 --> 0:19:49.040 at the data and go well, the bonds, the bond market, 0:19:49.280 --> 0:19:51.560 they didn't crash, they hold study. As a matter of fact, 0:19:51.760 --> 0:19:54.720 they eased a little bit. So all of the data 0:19:54.760 --> 0:19:58.239 points are telling us that the signal tells us that 0:19:58.320 --> 0:20:01.120 things are really good, and not just really good. They're 0:20:01.200 --> 0:20:04.600 loading up for a sling shot. That's what it's telling us. 0:20:04.920 --> 0:20:09.520 We see rising wages and stable inflation. So if wages 0:20:09.560 --> 0:20:12.800 are going up and inflation is stable, so wages are 0:20:12.800 --> 0:20:15.240 going up faster than the cost of goods, that means 0:20:15.280 --> 0:20:18.760 the consumer has more money to spend, which means a 0:20:18.760 --> 0:20:21.960