WEBVTT - Are you getting the first round right? 0:00:01.840 --> 0:00:05.560 Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, a production of I Heart Radio. 0:00:07.640 --> 0:00:11.039 Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from I Heart Radio, 0:00:11.280 --> 0:00:15.720 your weekly source for the nation's best fantasy football advice, speculation, 0:00:15.840 --> 0:00:18.680 and whatever stupid stuff they decided to drop into the show. 0:00:19.160 --> 0:00:25.680 Now here's your host, Paul. Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly. 0:00:25.920 --> 0:00:28.560 I am Paul charchy In and for the first time 0:00:28.600 --> 0:00:32.640 in several months, thanks to social distancing, I have both 0:00:32.840 --> 0:00:36.280 of my co hosts with me today. I guess thanks 0:00:36.280 --> 0:00:40.840 to relaxed social distancing, Matt Harrison and Brian Johnson, we're 0:00:40.840 --> 0:00:44.800 back together again, a three way. I've never felt less relaxed. 0:00:46.960 --> 0:00:53.760 I feel very I'm very old people people. Yeah, it's weird. 0:00:54.320 --> 0:00:59.400 Would you like to touch elbows? Brian la celebratory, secret, 0:00:59.640 --> 0:01:02.920 very secretive elbow bump. Probably. Uh. There's a lot to 0:01:02.960 --> 0:01:05.400 get to over the course of the show. Fantasy Football Weekly, 0:01:05.400 --> 0:01:09.880 and this show is dedicated to the first round of 0:01:09.920 --> 0:01:13.880 your draft. We're going to look at every pick that 0:01:14.000 --> 0:01:17.920 you the people are making in the first round. We'll 0:01:17.959 --> 0:01:20.480 tell you who you're taking first, who you're taking second, 0:01:20.480 --> 0:01:22.640 who you're taking third, by average draft position, and whether 0:01:22.720 --> 0:01:25.679 or not that's right. We're gonna be evaluating your picks. 0:01:26.040 --> 0:01:28.080 We got to change this a dp before it gets 0:01:28.080 --> 0:01:30.040 out of hand. Yeah, there's some changes to be made 0:01:30.040 --> 0:01:32.920 out here. Now. Generally I think the public does a 0:01:33.040 --> 0:01:36.640 pretty good job, but we've got a lot to quibble with. 0:01:36.680 --> 0:01:39.240 In the first round is very important. Really, if you're 0:01:39.280 --> 0:01:41.400 gonna miss up any round, you can lose your league 0:01:41.400 --> 0:01:43.760 in the first round, you can, and that is part 0:01:43.760 --> 0:01:46.200 of the draft strategy. Are you looking in the first round? 0:01:46.959 --> 0:01:50.080 Do you want the pick that's going to help rocket 0:01:50.120 --> 0:01:52.720 you to a championship or is it more important to 0:01:52.760 --> 0:01:55.480 get the safe pick and don't get the one that's 0:01:55.520 --> 0:01:59.200 gonna torpedo your team like David Johnson last year who 0:01:59.200 --> 0:02:02.480 went off in the middle first round and gave you nothing. 0:02:02.760 --> 0:02:06.400 Antonio Brown and well he wasn't a first rounder. Well 0:02:06.440 --> 0:02:08.600 it depends on what time of the summer were draft 0:02:10.120 --> 0:02:14.280 David Johnson the year before. There's that too. There's that too. 0:02:14.800 --> 0:02:16.200 You know this is gonna be the year when David 0:02:16.240 --> 0:02:18.560 Johnson blows up, so nobody's gonna draft him. And you 0:02:18.560 --> 0:02:20.960 know that's that would be fantasy football in a nutshell 0:02:21.120 --> 0:02:24.480 right there. So does the public, you the listening audience 0:02:24.520 --> 0:02:26.000 have it right? We're gonna go through every pick of 0:02:26.000 --> 0:02:28.920 the first round, the twelve picks the public is selecting. 0:02:29.200 --> 0:02:32.840 We'll tell you if we believe your selections are too high, 0:02:33.120 --> 0:02:38.040 too low, or just right. We begin with the first 0:02:38.120 --> 0:02:42.800 overall pick. By consensus, you are taking Christian McCaffrey, last 0:02:42.880 --> 0:02:46.600 year's number one overall score and is number one at 0:02:46.639 --> 0:02:49.080 the position. Is it possible you're taking him too low 0:02:50.760 --> 0:02:54.120 at number one? Um the Panthers with Cam Newton, Kyle Allen, 0:02:54.160 --> 0:02:57.480 and Will Greer last year, we're second in the league 0:02:57.480 --> 0:03:01.600 with six thirty passing attempts, most forty per game. Their 0:03:01.639 --> 0:03:03.880 defense is going to be worseless year with the loss 0:03:03.880 --> 0:03:06.480 of Luke Keikley. They're gonna be playing from behind, meeting 0:03:06.560 --> 0:03:08.880 check down. Teddy will be throwing the ball, maybe just 0:03:08.960 --> 0:03:12.840 as much. As I mentioned in previous episodes, bridgewaters average 0:03:12.840 --> 0:03:16.800 depth of target is five point four yards. That spells 0:03:16.960 --> 0:03:20.079 good for him. That spells doom for Curtis Samuel and 0:03:20.160 --> 0:03:23.280 Robby Anderson, who are both deep threats. And DJ Moore's 0:03:23.320 --> 0:03:25.880 average depth of target last year was around eleven point 0:03:25.919 --> 0:03:29.440 one yards. Plus Greg Olsen is gone. Yes, that means 0:03:29.639 --> 0:03:32.079 Christian McCaffrey is going to catch a whole heck of 0:03:32.120 --> 0:03:34.040 a lot of balls because his average depth of target 0:03:34.400 --> 0:03:39.640 zero point seven yards, that is own right there. Well, 0:03:39.640 --> 0:03:42.960 it's kind of in his max range for Teddy Bridgewater. Actually, 0:03:43.160 --> 0:03:48.720 I think McCaffrey will set the record, maybe a record 0:03:48.760 --> 0:03:51.720 that won't be beaten ever for running back receptions this year. 0:03:52.840 --> 0:03:56.000 He led last year all running backs in targets, receptions, 0:03:56.040 --> 0:03:58.920 receiving yards, total touchdowns, and he was second in Russian 0:03:59.000 --> 0:04:03.920 yards last year Chris to McCaffrey in ESPN scoring system. 0:04:04.040 --> 0:04:09.040 Last year, Christian McCaffrey scored twenty two more Fantasy points 0:04:09.280 --> 0:04:13.640 than the next closest running back. That's that's the equivalent 0:04:13.680 --> 0:04:16.159 of really like getting a free flex player, justin the 0:04:16.240 --> 0:04:19.080 differential that he brought. I think I read in fantasy 0:04:19.120 --> 0:04:22.720 points he he totaled the number ten and number eleven 0:04:22.800 --> 0:04:26.719 running backs last year together, So you get an extra 0:04:26.800 --> 0:04:30.400 starter on the field with him. All right, let's the one, 0:04:30.480 --> 0:04:33.960 the one argument you can make against Christian mcafy. Yes, 0:04:34.160 --> 0:04:36.280 but you know, let's try to let's try to make 0:04:36.360 --> 0:04:39.800 some cases why you wouldn't take Christian McCaffrey number one, 0:04:39.800 --> 0:04:42.960 because there there are reasons. History is the one I 0:04:42.960 --> 0:04:46.359 can think of, and that is essentially Priest Holmes is 0:04:46.400 --> 0:04:49.360 the only running back that's ever repeated as number one, 0:04:49.440 --> 0:04:51.960 number one fantasy running back back to back years, and 0:04:51.960 --> 0:04:58.359 I was back in two three. It's either it's not 0:04:58.480 --> 0:05:02.320 often though, it's domin no matter what, Predominantly, guys don't 0:05:02.320 --> 0:05:04.200 back to back now, and you know, we've gotten very 0:05:04.200 --> 0:05:07.640 excited about players before after monster seasons. Chris Johnson comes 0:05:07.680 --> 0:05:10.839 to mind, your boy tap dancing Nancy, But he was 0:05:10.880 --> 0:05:14.080 a tap dancing Nancy for all the reasons Matt suggested. 0:05:14.160 --> 0:05:17.160 I mean, the stars are aligning for even a better season. 0:05:17.279 --> 0:05:20.080 So there's one guy you can aregue taking over mccaff 0:05:20.160 --> 0:05:21.280 We all know who that is. But I think we 0:05:21.320 --> 0:05:24.200 can get to the the question here. So one is, 0:05:24.440 --> 0:05:28.680 you know, even we all think the regression is possible, 0:05:28.960 --> 0:05:34.039 just because history says a repression. But here's the things 0:05:34.360 --> 0:05:39.880 it's possible even if Christian McCaffrey regressed by he'd be 0:05:39.920 --> 0:05:43.600 the last year's highest scoring running back. Now I'll give 0:05:43.640 --> 0:05:45.719 you this is here's the one angle I've come up 0:05:45.760 --> 0:05:47.520 with that I think is a legitimate one that could 0:05:47.560 --> 0:05:52.640 hurt Christian McCaffrey. Really a massively rebuilt Carolina Panther's offensive 0:05:52.680 --> 0:05:56.240 line that will probably take time to gel. They gained 0:05:56.320 --> 0:05:59.320 left tackle Russell o'cum, the formal Pro bowler that was 0:05:59.360 --> 0:06:03.600 traded from the Chargers. Left tackle John Miller replaces greg 0:06:03.720 --> 0:06:07.240 Van Roten, and right guard Michael Schofield will start in 0:06:07.279 --> 0:06:09.600 place of Trey Turner, who went back to the Chargers 0:06:09.600 --> 0:06:12.159 in that deal. And that's a lot of moving parts 0:06:12.360 --> 0:06:16.560 and at at in new coaching staff, and there's it 0:06:16.600 --> 0:06:19.520 could be that this offense and the offensive line just 0:06:19.880 --> 0:06:23.400 doesn't function right while they iron out all the new 0:06:23.400 --> 0:06:27.920 components of a new offensive. And while pass catching running 0:06:27.960 --> 0:06:29.880 backs are immune to some of that, they're not immune 0:06:29.880 --> 0:06:31.200 to all of that. And he we still need him 0:06:31.200 --> 0:06:34.520 to run. So I think that's the best case to 0:06:34.560 --> 0:06:37.479 make against Christian McCaffrey. It's not even that good of 0:06:37.480 --> 0:06:39.760 a case, all right, So do you believe it's not 0:06:40.360 --> 0:06:44.279 Do you believe Christian McCaffrey should go number one? Is 0:06:44.320 --> 0:06:46.080 that I can't here? Is it too high? Too low? 0:06:46.160 --> 0:06:47.960 Or is it just right? Can't be two? Can't be 0:06:48.160 --> 0:06:52.640 too high because he's number one, he's just right. What 0:06:52.680 --> 0:06:55.600 do you think, Brian, I'll go just right to just right. 0:06:55.640 --> 0:06:57.760 We all agree with Christian McAffrey just right. Let's go 0:06:57.800 --> 0:07:03.520 to the average as of Laton a favorite year. Ever, 0:07:04.040 --> 0:07:07.320 let's go to the player you are taking second in 0:07:07.360 --> 0:07:11.080 the first round. As we avail to evaluate your first round. 0:07:11.480 --> 0:07:14.520 These are the twelve picks that you are selecting an 0:07:14.560 --> 0:07:20.600 average draft position by ESPN Drafts, and that is Michael Thomas. 0:07:20.920 --> 0:07:24.280 People clearly drinking too much during quarantine time and ap 0:07:24.520 --> 0:07:28.840 you got from ESPSP belief. This is ESPNS average draft position. 0:07:29.320 --> 0:07:32.120 Last year he was wide receiver number one. He was 0:07:32.200 --> 0:07:36.800 ranked third overall in scoring. I'll go I guess, I mean, 0:07:37.480 --> 0:07:39.600 I don't even know if I take Michael Thomas as 0:07:39.640 --> 0:07:42.560 my top wide receiver, but I'm not taking them second. 0:07:42.640 --> 0:07:45.000 I'm very much on the fence with taking se Kwon 0:07:45.080 --> 0:07:48.640 Berkley over Christian McCaffrey, just to be a bit contrarian 0:07:48.680 --> 0:07:52.560 and go go with the histories trends. But from Michael Thomas, 0:07:52.680 --> 0:07:56.240 he he still has wide receiver one potential for sure. 0:07:56.280 --> 0:07:59.040 He could warrant being the top or the second overall 0:07:59.040 --> 0:08:01.280 pick in the fantasy draft. But I don't like the 0:08:01.280 --> 0:08:04.760 addition of Emmanuel Sanders. He commands a lot more targets 0:08:04.760 --> 0:08:07.040 than any other wide receiver that was on the scenes 0:08:07.120 --> 0:08:09.520 last year, Brandon Cooks was kind of like the most 0:08:09.560 --> 0:08:12.560 notable secondary option and he was never much of a 0:08:12.640 --> 0:08:16.760 target hug ever, so Emmanuel Sanders coming back, Taysom Hill, 0:08:16.840 --> 0:08:20.680 I just hate for that whole offense in general, including 0:08:20.720 --> 0:08:23.600 Michael Thomas. He just comes in and vultures touchdowns from 0:08:23.640 --> 0:08:27.800 Kamara Thomas. And really the easiest argument against not taking 0:08:27.800 --> 0:08:29.560 Thomas here, I'm sorry, I kind of jump the gun 0:08:29.560 --> 0:08:32.520 and answered the question is wide receiver is the deepest 0:08:32.559 --> 0:08:35.160 I can remembered ever being in the twenty five issue 0:08:35.200 --> 0:08:39.000 years I've played fantasy football, You've got guys and the 0:08:39.000 --> 0:08:42.480 opposite kind of year, you got guys like Juju Smith 0:08:42.520 --> 0:08:45.200 Schuster who are like ranked in the thirties predominantly by 0:08:45.280 --> 0:08:48.040 most experts and whatnot. So I just I cannot take 0:08:48.080 --> 0:08:53.000 Michael Thomas second here. And what what say? What percentage 0:08:53.000 --> 0:08:57.040 of fantasy owners have ever regretted their selection of Michael 0:08:57.040 --> 0:09:00.640 Thomas no matter where they took him. Uh, it's about 0:09:00.800 --> 0:09:06.360 uh maybe point oh oh one. Nobody's ever regretted. This 0:09:06.520 --> 0:09:09.439 is the safest pick in fantasy football, Michael Thomas. But 0:09:09.440 --> 0:09:13.040 should he go at position number two? So the knock 0:09:13.080 --> 0:09:16.080 I have on him here was Breeze went from averaging 0:09:16.160 --> 0:09:19.559 forty two passing attempts per game in sixteen and basically 0:09:19.640 --> 0:09:23.040 over forty per game for the prior ten years, to 0:09:23.360 --> 0:09:26.560 thirty four or fewer in each of the last three seasons. 0:09:26.840 --> 0:09:32.280 Manuel Sanders Brian mentioned his legit and capable defense. If 0:09:32.960 --> 0:09:36.600 Breeze's arm isn't up for throwing forty times a game. 0:09:36.679 --> 0:09:39.600 Thomas seems due for some regression because he had a 0:09:39.720 --> 0:09:43.720 hundred and eighty five targets, one forty nine receptions, and 0:09:43.840 --> 0:09:47.720 seventy five for yardage. But even if he regresses to 0:09:47.840 --> 0:09:52.280 his two thousand eighteen numbers, which that's likely, he's still 0:09:52.280 --> 0:09:54.800 getting a hundred and twenty five catches for fourteen hundred 0:09:54.880 --> 0:09:58.120 yards and nine touchdowns. So I I think that he's 0:09:58.160 --> 0:10:01.080 going to regress some, but you're not gonna feel bad 0:10:01.120 --> 0:10:05.240 if you take him in the top five. So you're 0:10:05.360 --> 0:10:08.040 you're saying, give me, is this is he being a 0:10:08.160 --> 0:10:10.960 position number two? Is Michael Thomas too high he's too right? 0:10:11.040 --> 0:10:13.480 Or too low? He's too high? Because I'd I'd take 0:10:13.480 --> 0:10:17.200 a running back over him. He's just right. Incredible depth 0:10:17.240 --> 0:10:20.959 of quarterback with Drew Brees Jamis Winston, who would likely 0:10:20.960 --> 0:10:23.200 get lots of reps in the event that Drew Brees 0:10:23.240 --> 0:10:26.120 got hurt, and then Taysom Hill does for whatever, for 0:10:26.120 --> 0:10:28.040 whatever faults he has, he also can throw a nice 0:10:28.080 --> 0:10:30.120 deep ball and he can do some things. And then 0:10:30.280 --> 0:10:33.000 you guys are so wrong in Emmanuel Sanders. Emmanuel Sanders 0:10:33.000 --> 0:10:36.319 helps his cause he has been languishing. Michael Thomas. He 0:10:36.360 --> 0:10:39.760 hasn't been languishing. He's had too. He has had to 0:10:39.800 --> 0:10:43.400 take full coverage, the best coverage. Nobody, no other wide 0:10:43.400 --> 0:10:47.600 receivers offering defense is anything to look at. Emmanuel Sanders 0:10:47.920 --> 0:10:52.200 will at least make keep defenses a little bit honest an, 0:10:52.480 --> 0:10:55.360 I think that will ultimately help in the long run. 0:10:55.600 --> 0:10:59.160 Michael Thomas. I believe it is just right at pick 0:10:59.240 --> 0:11:02.439 number two. When we come back, we will begin looking 0:11:02.440 --> 0:11:05.959 at pick number three that you've got. We're evaluating the 0:11:06.000 --> 0:11:09.720 public's drafting through the first round you took, by average 0:11:09.760 --> 0:11:13.520 draft position and ESPN drafts you've taken. Christian McCaffrey, Michael Thomas. 0:11:13.720 --> 0:11:16.280 We'll talk about picks number three, four and five when 0:11:16.360 --> 0:11:20.880 we come back to Fantasy Football Weekly. Welcome back to 0:11:20.920 --> 0:11:23.120 Fantasy Football Weekly. I'm your host Paul Charchy and my 0:11:23.200 --> 0:11:26.840 co host today are Matt Harrison and Brian Johnson. You 0:11:26.840 --> 0:11:29.160 can follow us on Twitter. I am at Paul Charchi 0:11:29.240 --> 0:11:35.400 and Matt Harrison is at explosive output. And and all 0:11:35.440 --> 0:11:40.920 these years years later it Bryan has available it at 0:11:41.280 --> 0:11:45.920 b t x J b t x J. It's still 0:11:45.960 --> 0:11:51.080 waiting for some corporation that needs t pay up. Well 0:11:51.120 --> 0:11:53.320 for that, it's only four digits long. I got it 0:11:53.360 --> 0:11:55.720 a long time ago. Good for you. We are looking 0:11:55.760 --> 0:11:58.839 at the first round draft picks. Your the public's first 0:11:58.920 --> 0:12:01.680 round draft picks. The twelve rounds comprising the first round 0:12:01.679 --> 0:12:05.120 on ESPN average draft position. Do you have these picks right? 0:12:05.520 --> 0:12:07.959 Are they guys too high or too low? We've already 0:12:07.960 --> 0:12:11.160 covered Christian McCaffrey. Consensus was that was correct at number one. 0:12:11.320 --> 0:12:13.160 Michael Thomas, two of the three of us said it 0:12:13.240 --> 0:12:15.640 was too high at number two. And with the third 0:12:15.640 --> 0:12:19.640 pick you are selecting, say Kwon Barkley, Matt, do you 0:12:19.679 --> 0:12:22.880 believe it pick number three? Say Kwon Barkley is too high, 0:12:22.880 --> 0:12:24.920 too low or just right? He's too low because he 0:12:24.960 --> 0:12:28.200 should be locked in at number two. UM. I think 0:12:28.320 --> 0:12:31.480 CMC's ceiling and floor are just a tiny bit higher 0:12:31.480 --> 0:12:34.120 than say Kwan's. But the sky's the limit for Barkley. 0:12:34.200 --> 0:12:37.280 He's got a capable quarterback who can throw the ball downfield. 0:12:37.559 --> 0:12:40.360 Somehow that's working against him though, But it's like the 0:12:40.400 --> 0:12:43.120 opposite of Teddy Bridgewater. And the weapons in New York 0:12:43.120 --> 0:12:47.480 aren't bad. Darius Slayton, Sterling Shepard, Golden Tate, Evan Angram 0:12:47.480 --> 0:12:50.600 all pretty decent options. Now the drawback is you have 0:12:50.720 --> 0:12:55.480 Jason Garrett calling your place. But Jason Garrett's offenses in 0:12:55.520 --> 0:12:58.920 the past to feature a workhorse running back in Ezekiel Elliott. 0:12:59.040 --> 0:13:01.760 So I feel fine with se Kwon Barkley working in 0:13:01.800 --> 0:13:04.800 that offense, and I think he's a great pick at 0:13:04.880 --> 0:13:07.760 number two. Brian is gonna say he should be picked 0:13:07.760 --> 0:13:10.360 at number one. You could make that argument, but yeah, 0:13:10.360 --> 0:13:13.360 I'm gonna basically agree with you. And those those weapons 0:13:13.360 --> 0:13:16.760 you mentioned, including Barkley, who last year was a disaster 0:13:16.840 --> 0:13:20.760 of course, injuries and but uh, Golden Tate missed the 0:13:20.800 --> 0:13:23.800 first four games of the season, Evan Ingram got injured 0:13:23.880 --> 0:13:26.880 during that span. They never had that full team together. 0:13:26.920 --> 0:13:30.680 And then yet Daniel Jones, who you know, started the season. Yeah, 0:13:30.720 --> 0:13:33.000 so that team never had a chance. They're finally going 0:13:33.000 --> 0:13:36.520 into a whole season together. The opening schedule is rough, though, 0:13:36.520 --> 0:13:40.240 which I don't like it. I believe it's Pittsburgh, Chicago, 0:13:41.040 --> 0:13:46.079 San Francisco and the Rams. Yikes, so that's a murderers row. 0:13:46.120 --> 0:13:48.400 It's almost like, as much as you I love Barkley, 0:13:48.440 --> 0:13:50.000 I think he's gonna bounce back in a big wave. 0:13:50.080 --> 0:13:52.600 Arguably the most talented running back in the NFL. That 0:13:52.720 --> 0:13:54.880 schedule scares me, and it's like it's more like a 0:13:54.920 --> 0:13:57.960 bye low opportunity. But I'm still gonna say he's too low. 0:13:58.040 --> 0:14:00.320 But keep that in mind that that opening schedu is 0:14:00.559 --> 0:14:03.040 a little scary, could be a slow start, so it 0:14:03.080 --> 0:14:06.280 could be tough on guillotine leaguers. Se kwon Barkley at 0:14:06.360 --> 0:14:09.400 number three, I believe is just right and I love him. 0:14:09.520 --> 0:14:11.959 He's he's the He's the best running back in the NFL. 0:14:12.040 --> 0:14:16.720 Did you set the ADP for ESPN charge per drafted 0:14:16.760 --> 0:14:20.280 on ESPN one thousand times? Just to make it just 0:14:20.360 --> 0:14:23.400 my way? I hope. I don't want to step on 0:14:23.440 --> 0:14:25.800 your toes. You might mention this, the Giants invested Andrew 0:14:25.800 --> 0:14:28.320 Thomas fourth overall. Okay, I'll let you keep going. They 0:14:28.320 --> 0:14:30.840 got their early first round pick and Andrew Thomas, who 0:14:30.920 --> 0:14:35.440 joins Nate Solder. Will Hernandez also very good blockers, and 0:14:35.480 --> 0:14:37.880 the Giants also put a third rounder into Matt Perkin. 0:14:37.920 --> 0:14:39.920 I mean, this is an offensive line that should get better, 0:14:40.120 --> 0:14:42.040 might take a little while, and again, you know, new 0:14:42.040 --> 0:14:43.960 offensive lines take a little bit to jelt. Maybe that's 0:14:44.000 --> 0:14:47.960 going to be the Yeah, it really does. And nowhere 0:14:48.000 --> 0:14:50.440 to go but up. Okay, let's go to a position 0:14:50.560 --> 0:14:54.520 number four. The public on ESPN is taking Ezekiel Elliott 0:14:54.640 --> 0:14:58.480 at number four. Let's go to Brian. Do you believe 0:14:58.800 --> 0:15:01.440 that ezequiellet number four is too high, too low or 0:15:01.520 --> 0:15:03.920 just right? Well, Michael Thomas has screwed this all up 0:15:03.920 --> 0:15:08.400 because everyone's too low. But um, let's let's just say 0:15:08.440 --> 0:15:12.280 behind se Kwan and McCaffrey, I'll say just right, um 0:15:12.520 --> 0:15:15.760 for Zeke just uh. He was a beast last year, 0:15:15.800 --> 0:15:18.680 probably the most consistent running back outside of McCaffrey, and 0:15:19.280 --> 0:15:22.200 the addition of Ceedee Lamb doesn't really concern me. There's 0:15:22.200 --> 0:15:24.720 a lot of weapons, aerial weapons. Blake jarr Went an 0:15:24.760 --> 0:15:28.000 upcoming tight end, gonna steal some red zone touches from Zeke. 0:15:28.240 --> 0:15:31.080 I think Tony Pollard's he's a little more run this year, 0:15:31.440 --> 0:15:34.120 trying to, you know, take the mileage off ze because 0:15:34.120 --> 0:15:35.960 there they've got him for the long haul now they 0:15:36.160 --> 0:15:38.200 like it or not. Right, he's locked in, So I 0:15:38.240 --> 0:15:41.000 don't know if he's gonna see just a slight downtick 0:15:41.040 --> 0:15:42.800 in usage for Elliott, but he's still gonna beed the 0:15:42.840 --> 0:15:44.920 same elite player on the same elite on the same 0:15:44.960 --> 0:15:47.520 lead offense. So he's just about right where he is. Uh, 0:15:47.600 --> 0:15:50.920 most of what Brian said is spot on. Kellen Moore 0:15:51.040 --> 0:15:55.560 stays as the offensive coordinator, so he's got something there. Um. 0:15:55.640 --> 0:15:59.280 He led the league with fifty nine red zone rushing 0:15:59.280 --> 0:16:02.640 attempts last steer and had twelve scores from that distance. 0:16:03.440 --> 0:16:08.800 Plus if by some chance, Dak Prescott decides to go 0:16:09.000 --> 0:16:12.760 Ezekiel Elliott on this and hold out, he's got Andy 0:16:12.840 --> 0:16:16.680 Dalton who's a capable backup quarterback. But Andy Dalton might 0:16:16.720 --> 0:16:19.040 hand Zeke the ball just a couple extra times. So 0:16:19.160 --> 0:16:21.440 I like Zeke is the third overall running back, and 0:16:21.520 --> 0:16:23.960 in my mind he's the third overall pick, So I 0:16:23.960 --> 0:16:26.320 think he's going a little bit too low. You talked 0:16:26.320 --> 0:16:29.720 about his red zone touches. Listen to this from inside 0:16:29.760 --> 0:16:33.720 the five yard line for Ezekiel Elliott. Over his three 0:16:33.800 --> 0:16:38.920 year career, he's had forty one carries from inside the 0:16:39.000 --> 0:16:43.920 five just in the last uh just in last two years, 0:16:43.960 --> 0:16:47.280 he's had thirty one even And but I want to 0:16:47.320 --> 0:16:49.120 spend a minute on Tony Pollard. And here's why I'm 0:16:49.160 --> 0:16:53.240 going to say this is too high. I'm legitimately worried 0:16:53.560 --> 0:16:57.920 about Tony Pollard significantly eating into his usage. He's a baller. 0:16:58.360 --> 0:17:02.359 He is a baller. Listened to this by many metrics. 0:17:02.400 --> 0:17:07.200 In fact, by most metrics, Tony Pollard was the better 0:17:07.240 --> 0:17:10.119 back last year. He ran for five point three yards 0:17:10.119 --> 0:17:13.320 per carry, and even when Paullard didn't touch the ball, 0:17:13.840 --> 0:17:18.400 the Cowboys average more yards per play on when Pollard 0:17:18.480 --> 0:17:21.240 was in the game than when Zeke was in the game. 0:17:21.800 --> 0:17:26.680 Pollard had the NFL's highest yards after contact last year. 0:17:27.240 --> 0:17:30.240 Among all runners that had at least his eighties six carries, 0:17:30.960 --> 0:17:34.919 he had the most yards per contact. Tony Pollard had 0:17:34.920 --> 0:17:38.440 a higher Pro Football Focus grade than Zeke did last year, 0:17:38.640 --> 0:17:42.960 both as a runner and as a receiver. And we 0:17:43.080 --> 0:17:45.800 saw Tony Pollard put up heavy usage games at the 0:17:45.880 --> 0:17:49.000 end of last year, Week fifteen and week seventeen last year, 0:17:49.359 --> 0:17:52.440 we're fourteen and fifteen touch games. At the end of 0:17:52.520 --> 0:17:54.080 last year, when Dallas was playing to try to get 0:17:54.119 --> 0:17:58.280 into the playoffs, they were relying on Tony Pollard down 0:17:58.280 --> 0:18:01.320 the stretch. Were those games at the end of last 0:18:01.359 --> 0:18:04.600 year a foreshadowing of what is to come this year? 0:18:05.480 --> 0:18:10.320 Don't don't you got me convinced? Uh? Tony Pollard also, 0:18:10.520 --> 0:18:15.480 I believe had the highest elusive rating in the league 0:18:15.560 --> 0:18:19.600 out of players who played more than uh eight games. 0:18:19.960 --> 0:18:22.520 That would not surprise me, considering he he led the 0:18:22.640 --> 0:18:25.119 NFL and yards after contact. The only the only the 0:18:25.160 --> 0:18:27.520 only guys who were even close to him was Kareem 0:18:27.600 --> 0:18:30.000 Hunt and he played exactly eight games. So anybody who 0:18:30.040 --> 0:18:32.320 played more than eight games, Tony Pollard was the most 0:18:32.400 --> 0:18:35.639 elusive running back in the league. He's too high. Now, 0:18:35.680 --> 0:18:37.720 did I talk to you? You're going to come out 0:18:37.720 --> 0:18:42.239 thinking about the players that are all right? So I 0:18:42.280 --> 0:18:44.560 still like seeke find I don't like him at number four. 0:18:44.600 --> 0:18:46.320 I think he's too high. So we have two two 0:18:46.400 --> 0:18:49.040 highs and the just right. Let's go to position number 0:18:49.080 --> 0:18:52.800 five and that is Dalvin Cook. Last year is running 0:18:52.800 --> 0:18:56.280 back six overall player number nine, depending on that's ESPN 0:18:56.320 --> 0:19:00.320 scoring system. You ESPN drafters are taking Doubt and Cook 0:19:00.359 --> 0:19:02.760 at position number five. Matt, do you believe that's too high? 0:19:02.800 --> 0:19:07.080 Too lower? Just right? I think just right again. Um. 0:19:07.440 --> 0:19:10.840 Things I found while digging in on Dalvin Cook. At 0:19:10.840 --> 0:19:13.719 the beginning of the season, they took Dalvin off the 0:19:13.760 --> 0:19:17.320 field more often on passing downs, and the Vikings developed 0:19:17.320 --> 0:19:19.480 a bit of a tell because Dalvin was on the 0:19:19.520 --> 0:19:23.400 field more often for rushing snaps and not for passing snaps. 0:19:23.680 --> 0:19:26.640 First five game he averaged only eighteen snaps per game 0:19:26.640 --> 0:19:29.640 on pass plays. But by the middle of the season 0:19:29.880 --> 0:19:32.120 and in his last three healthy games in his two 0:19:32.119 --> 0:19:36.960 playoff games, Dalvin was averaging twenty eight passing snaps per game. Uh. 0:19:37.000 --> 0:19:39.160 He's also in a contract here and it's not guaranteed 0:19:39.200 --> 0:19:41.680 that he comes back to the Purple. So the Vikings 0:19:41.680 --> 0:19:44.400 could go to Marco Murray with him and just run 0:19:44.440 --> 0:19:46.919 the tread off the tires this year, pass him the 0:19:46.920 --> 0:19:50.560 ball a brazillion times, keep him running, and just see 0:19:50.560 --> 0:19:53.399 what they get out of Dalvin this year. Yeah, I 0:19:53.440 --> 0:19:55.879 agree with everything you have to say. The Vikings also 0:19:56.200 --> 0:19:59.360 invested some draft capital in an offensive line as Cleveland 0:19:59.359 --> 0:20:02.320 in the second round. Second and uh yeah, the contract 0:20:02.400 --> 0:20:06.080 year thing is huge for fantasy football there. They're probably 0:20:06.200 --> 0:20:08.240 not going to extend with Minnesota, so they have nothing 0:20:08.240 --> 0:20:11.960 to lose and just feeding him the ball all day 0:20:12.320 --> 0:20:17.199 and win. The championship window is closing, sor is. Here's 0:20:17.240 --> 0:20:18.959 why I think you guys are wrong in the usage 0:20:19.000 --> 0:20:21.639 is he's just never been durable, never stayed healthy. And 0:20:21.760 --> 0:20:23.920 last year in the second half of the season, first 0:20:23.960 --> 0:20:26.159 half of the season, Dalvin Cook averaged five point two 0:20:26.200 --> 0:20:29.840 yards per carry. Second half of the season three point two. 0:20:30.400 --> 0:20:33.520 That's a massive difference. And it's just a guy who 0:20:33.560 --> 0:20:35.639 wears down. And it's as plausible as it could be 0:20:35.680 --> 0:20:38.160 that the Vikings would like to run him a lot 0:20:38.240 --> 0:20:40.800 and to just hand then give the keys to Alexander 0:20:40.840 --> 0:20:44.080 Madison next year. I don't think. I just don't think 0:20:44.119 --> 0:20:45.960 Dalvin Cook has built for that. So I don't believe 0:20:46.000 --> 0:20:48.920 that that is in fact going to happen, although we will. 0:20:49.040 --> 0:20:51.920 So it sounds like you think that he's ranked too high. 0:20:52.080 --> 0:20:54.840 Too high for Dalvin Cook, not a lot, and I 0:20:54.880 --> 0:20:56.919 think he is a little bit too high. We are 0:20:56.920 --> 0:21:00.960 working our way through the average first round. By your 0:21:01.080 --> 0:21:07.240 drafts on ESPN and validating or invalidating your selections at 0:21:07.320 --> 0:21:10.600 every pick of the first round. We've already been through 0:21:10.720 --> 0:21:14.400 Christian McCaffrey, Michael Thomas, say, Kwan Barkley is the first 0:21:14.440 --> 0:21:19.640 three players selected. Then Ezekiel Elliott, Dalves, Yeah, Ezekiel Elliott, 0:21:19.760 --> 0:21:24.719 Dalvin Cook. And now for selection number six, Alvin Camara 0:21:24.880 --> 0:21:28.840 being selected at position number six. Many people expecting a 0:21:28.920 --> 0:21:32.200 bounce back season after a very disappointing one last year. Brian, 0:21:32.240 --> 0:21:35.040 do you believe that Alvin Camari's position number six is 0:21:35.040 --> 0:21:37.880 too high, too low or just right? Here's one thing 0:21:38.160 --> 0:21:40.879 you can tank take to the bank of Alvin Camaro. 0:21:41.280 --> 0:21:43.879 He's gonna have eighty one catches this season. Yes, his 0:21:44.000 --> 0:21:49.240 rookie season one catches. Last season eighty one catches, So 0:21:49.320 --> 0:21:51.920 that's locked in. I like the eighty one catch aspect 0:21:52.040 --> 0:21:55.639 Alvin Camara. No, the touches went down a little bit 0:21:55.680 --> 0:21:59.080 for Camaro last year, twenty fewer catches obviously the twenty 0:21:59.119 --> 0:22:01.639 fewer carries that the catches were the same. Uh, the 0:22:01.680 --> 0:22:05.000 touchdowns went down big time from he had fourteen rushing 0:22:05.000 --> 0:22:10.800 touchdowns only five last year. Remember, famously, he had scored 0:22:10.840 --> 0:22:14.520 in one game until Week sixteen last year, and we're 0:22:14.520 --> 0:22:17.200 all languishing waiting for the touchdowns to come that never did. 0:22:17.600 --> 0:22:21.199 Taysom Hill, the aforementioned Taysom Hill, UH certainly stole some 0:22:21.400 --> 0:22:23.440 touches from Kamara in the red zone last year, or 0:22:23.440 --> 0:22:25.359 we'll probably do the same this year as well. The 0:22:25.440 --> 0:22:29.000 Tavius Murray that said, still an elite offense with a 0:22:29.080 --> 0:22:32.320 great uh run blocking offensive line and for like top 0:22:32.359 --> 0:22:35.440 twelve and Emmanuel Sanders comes in and makes that offense 0:22:35.480 --> 0:22:38.560