Speaker 1: Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly, a production of I Heart Radio.
Speaker 1: Time now for Fantasy Football Weekly from I Heart Radio,
Speaker 1: your weekly source for the nation's best fantasy football advice, speculation,
Speaker 1: and whatever stupid stuff they decided to drop into the show.
Speaker 1: Now here's your host, Paul. Welcome to Fantasy Football Weekly.
Speaker 1: I am Paul charchy In and for the first time
Speaker 1: in several months, thanks to social distancing, I have both
Speaker 1: of my co hosts with me today. I guess thanks
Speaker 1: to relaxed social distancing, Matt Harrison and Brian Johnson, we're
Speaker 1: back together again, a three way. I've never felt less relaxed.
Speaker 1: I feel very I'm very old people people. Yeah, it's weird.
Speaker 1: Would you like to touch elbows? Brian la celebratory, secret,
Speaker 1: very secretive elbow bump. Probably. Uh. There's a lot to
Speaker 1: get to over the course of the show. Fantasy Football Weekly,
Speaker 1: and this show is dedicated to the first round of
Speaker 1: your draft. We're going to look at every pick that
Speaker 1: you the people are making in the first round. We'll
Speaker 1: tell you who you're taking first, who you're taking second,
Speaker 1: who you're taking third, by average draft position, and whether
Speaker 1: or not that's right. We're gonna be evaluating your picks.
Speaker 1: We got to change this a dp before it gets
Speaker 1: out of hand. Yeah, there's some changes to be made
Speaker 1: out here. Now. Generally I think the public does a
Speaker 1: pretty good job, but we've got a lot to quibble with.
Speaker 1: In the first round is very important. Really, if you're
Speaker 1: gonna miss up any round, you can lose your league
Speaker 1: in the first round, you can, and that is part
Speaker 1: of the draft strategy. Are you looking in the first round?
Speaker 1: Do you want the pick that's going to help rocket
Speaker 1: you to a championship or is it more important to
Speaker 1: get the safe pick and don't get the one that's
Speaker 1: gonna torpedo your team like David Johnson last year who
Speaker 1: went off in the middle first round and gave you nothing.
Speaker 1: Antonio Brown and well he wasn't a first rounder. Well
Speaker 1: it depends on what time of the summer were draft
Speaker 1: David Johnson the year before. There's that too. There's that too.
Speaker 1: You know this is gonna be the year when David
Speaker 1: Johnson blows up, so nobody's gonna draft him. And you
Speaker 1: know that's that would be fantasy football in a nutshell
Speaker 1: right there. So does the public, you the listening audience
Speaker 1: have it right? We're gonna go through every pick of
Speaker 1: the first round, the twelve picks the public is selecting.
Speaker 1: We'll tell you if we believe your selections are too high,
Speaker 1: too low, or just right. We begin with the first
Speaker 1: overall pick. By consensus, you are taking Christian McCaffrey, last
Speaker 1: year's number one overall score and is number one at
Speaker 1: the position. Is it possible you're taking him too low
Speaker 1: at number one? Um the Panthers with Cam Newton, Kyle Allen,
Speaker 1: and Will Greer last year, we're second in the league
Speaker 1: with six thirty passing attempts, most forty per game. Their
Speaker 1: defense is going to be worseless year with the loss
Speaker 1: of Luke Keikley. They're gonna be playing from behind, meeting
Speaker 1: check down. Teddy will be throwing the ball, maybe just
Speaker 1: as much. As I mentioned in previous episodes, bridgewaters average
Speaker 1: depth of target is five point four yards. That spells
Speaker 1: good for him. That spells doom for Curtis Samuel and
Speaker 1: Robby Anderson, who are both deep threats. And DJ Moore's
Speaker 1: average depth of target last year was around eleven point
Speaker 1: one yards. Plus Greg Olsen is gone. Yes, that means
Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey is going to catch a whole heck of
Speaker 1: a lot of balls because his average depth of target
Speaker 1: zero point seven yards, that is own right there. Well,
Speaker 1: it's kind of in his max range for Teddy Bridgewater. Actually,
Speaker 1: I think McCaffrey will set the record, maybe a record
Speaker 1: that won't be beaten ever for running back receptions this year.
Speaker 1: He led last year all running backs in targets, receptions,
Speaker 1: receiving yards, total touchdowns, and he was second in Russian
Speaker 1: yards last year Chris to McCaffrey in ESPN scoring system.
Speaker 1: Last year, Christian McCaffrey scored twenty two more Fantasy points
Speaker 1: than the next closest running back. That's that's the equivalent
Speaker 1: of really like getting a free flex player, justin the
Speaker 1: differential that he brought. I think I read in fantasy
Speaker 1: points he he totaled the number ten and number eleven
Speaker 1: running backs last year together, So you get an extra
Speaker 1: starter on the field with him. All right, let's the one,
Speaker 1: the one argument you can make against Christian mcafy. Yes,
Speaker 1: but you know, let's try to let's try to make
Speaker 1: some cases why you wouldn't take Christian McCaffrey number one,
Speaker 1: because there there are reasons. History is the one I
Speaker 1: can think of, and that is essentially Priest Holmes is
Speaker 1: the only running back that's ever repeated as number one,
Speaker 1: number one fantasy running back back to back years, and
Speaker 1: I was back in two three. It's either it's not
Speaker 1: often though, it's domin no matter what, Predominantly, guys don't
Speaker 1: back to back now, and you know, we've gotten very
Speaker 1: excited about players before after monster seasons. Chris Johnson comes
Speaker 1: to mind, your boy tap dancing Nancy, But he was
Speaker 1: a tap dancing Nancy for all the reasons Matt suggested.
Speaker 1: I mean, the stars are aligning for even a better season.
Speaker 1: So there's one guy you can aregue taking over mccaff
Speaker 1: We all know who that is. But I think we
Speaker 1: can get to the the question here. So one is,
Speaker 1: you know, even we all think the regression is possible,
Speaker 1: just because history says a repression. But here's the things
Speaker 1: it's possible even if Christian McCaffrey regressed by he'd be
Speaker 1: the last year's highest scoring running back. Now I'll give
Speaker 1: you this is here's the one angle I've come up
Speaker 1: with that I think is a legitimate one that could
Speaker 1: hurt Christian McCaffrey. Really a massively rebuilt Carolina Panther's offensive
Speaker 1: line that will probably take time to gel. They gained
Speaker 1: left tackle Russell o'cum, the formal Pro bowler that was
Speaker 1: traded from the Chargers. Left tackle John Miller replaces greg
Speaker 1: Van Roten, and right guard Michael Schofield will start in
Speaker 1: place of Trey Turner, who went back to the Chargers
Speaker 1: in that deal. And that's a lot of moving parts
Speaker 1: and at at in new coaching staff, and there's it
Speaker 1: could be that this offense and the offensive line just
Speaker 1: doesn't function right while they iron out all the new
Speaker 1: components of a new offensive. And while pass catching running
Speaker 1: backs are immune to some of that, they're not immune
Speaker 1: to all of that. And he we still need him
Speaker 1: to run. So I think that's the best case to
Speaker 1: make against Christian McCaffrey. It's not even that good of
Speaker 1: a case, all right, So do you believe it's not
Speaker 1: Do you believe Christian McCaffrey should go number one? Is
Speaker 1: that I can't here? Is it too high? Too low?
Speaker 1: Or is it just right? Can't be two? Can't be
Speaker 1: too high because he's number one, he's just right. What
Speaker 1: do you think, Brian, I'll go just right to just right.
Speaker 1: We all agree with Christian McAffrey just right. Let's go
Speaker 1: to the average as of Laton a favorite year. Ever,
Speaker 1: let's go to the player you are taking second in
Speaker 1: the first round. As we avail to evaluate your first round.
Speaker 1: These are the twelve picks that you are selecting an
Speaker 1: average draft position by ESPN Drafts, and that is Michael Thomas.
Speaker 1: People clearly drinking too much during quarantine time and ap
Speaker 1: you got from ESPSP belief. This is ESPNS average draft position.
Speaker 1: Last year he was wide receiver number one. He was
Speaker 1: ranked third overall in scoring. I'll go I guess, I mean,
Speaker 1: I don't even know if I take Michael Thomas as
Speaker 1: my top wide receiver, but I'm not taking them second.
Speaker 1: I'm very much on the fence with taking se Kwon
Speaker 1: Berkley over Christian McCaffrey, just to be a bit contrarian
Speaker 1: and go go with the histories trends. But from Michael Thomas,
Speaker 1: he he still has wide receiver one potential for sure.
Speaker 1: He could warrant being the top or the second overall
Speaker 1: pick in the fantasy draft. But I don't like the
Speaker 1: addition of Emmanuel Sanders. He commands a lot more targets
Speaker 1: than any other wide receiver that was on the scenes
Speaker 1: last year, Brandon Cooks was kind of like the most
Speaker 1: notable secondary option and he was never much of a
Speaker 1: target hug ever, so Emmanuel Sanders coming back, Taysom Hill,
Speaker 1: I just hate for that whole offense in general, including
Speaker 1: Michael Thomas. He just comes in and vultures touchdowns from
Speaker 1: Kamara Thomas. And really the easiest argument against not taking
Speaker 1: Thomas here, I'm sorry, I kind of jump the gun
Speaker 1: and answered the question is wide receiver is the deepest
Speaker 1: I can remembered ever being in the twenty five issue
Speaker 1: years I've played fantasy football, You've got guys and the
Speaker 1: opposite kind of year, you got guys like Juju Smith
Speaker 1: Schuster who are like ranked in the thirties predominantly by
Speaker 1: most experts and whatnot. So I just I cannot take
Speaker 1: Michael Thomas second here. And what what say? What percentage
Speaker 1: of fantasy owners have ever regretted their selection of Michael
Speaker 1: Thomas no matter where they took him. Uh, it's about
Speaker 1: uh maybe point oh oh one. Nobody's ever regretted. This
Speaker 1: is the safest pick in fantasy football, Michael Thomas. But
Speaker 1: should he go at position number two? So the knock
Speaker 1: I have on him here was Breeze went from averaging
Speaker 1: forty two passing attempts per game in sixteen and basically
Speaker 1: over forty per game for the prior ten years, to
Speaker 1: thirty four or fewer in each of the last three seasons.
Speaker 1: Manuel Sanders Brian mentioned his legit and capable defense. If
Speaker 1: Breeze's arm isn't up for throwing forty times a game.
Speaker 1: Thomas seems due for some regression because he had a
Speaker 1: hundred and eighty five targets, one forty nine receptions, and
Speaker 1: seventy five for yardage. But even if he regresses to
Speaker 1: his two thousand eighteen numbers, which that's likely, he's still
Speaker 1: getting a hundred and twenty five catches for fourteen hundred
Speaker 1: yards and nine touchdowns. So I I think that he's
Speaker 1: going to regress some, but you're not gonna feel bad
Speaker 1: if you take him in the top five. So you're
Speaker 1: you're saying, give me, is this is he being a
Speaker 1: position number two? Is Michael Thomas too high he's too right?
Speaker 1: Or too low? He's too high? Because I'd I'd take
Speaker 1: a running back over him. He's just right. Incredible depth
Speaker 1: of quarterback with Drew Brees Jamis Winston, who would likely
Speaker 1: get lots of reps in the event that Drew Brees
Speaker 1: got hurt, and then Taysom Hill does for whatever, for
Speaker 1: whatever faults he has, he also can throw a nice
Speaker 1: deep ball and he can do some things. And then
Speaker 1: you guys are so wrong in Emmanuel Sanders. Emmanuel Sanders
Speaker 1: helps his cause he has been languishing. Michael Thomas. He
Speaker 1: hasn't been languishing. He's had too. He has had to
Speaker 1: take full coverage, the best coverage. Nobody, no other wide
Speaker 1: receivers offering defense is anything to look at. Emmanuel Sanders
Speaker 1: will at least make keep defenses a little bit honest an,
Speaker 1: I think that will ultimately help in the long run.
Speaker 1: Michael Thomas. I believe it is just right at pick
Speaker 1: number two. When we come back, we will begin looking
Speaker 1: at pick number three that you've got. We're evaluating the
Speaker 1: public's drafting through the first round you took, by average
Speaker 1: draft position and ESPN drafts you've taken. Christian McCaffrey, Michael Thomas.
Speaker 1: We'll talk about picks number three, four and five when
Speaker 1: we come back to Fantasy Football Weekly. Welcome back to
Speaker 1: Fantasy Football Weekly. I'm your host Paul Charchy and my
Speaker 1: co host today are Matt Harrison and Brian Johnson. You
Speaker 1: can follow us on Twitter. I am at Paul Charchi
Speaker 1: and Matt Harrison is at explosive output. And and all
Speaker 1: these years years later it Bryan has available it at
Speaker 1: b t x J b t x J. It's still
Speaker 1: waiting for some corporation that needs t pay up. Well
Speaker 1: for that, it's only four digits long. I got it
Speaker 1: a long time ago. Good for you. We are looking
Speaker 1: at the first round draft picks. Your the public's first
Speaker 1: round draft picks. The twelve rounds comprising the first round
Speaker 1: on ESPN average draft position. Do you have these picks right?
Speaker 1: Are they guys too high or too low? We've already
Speaker 1: covered Christian McCaffrey. Consensus was that was correct at number one.
Speaker 1: Michael Thomas, two of the three of us said it
Speaker 1: was too high at number two. And with the third
Speaker 1: pick you are selecting, say Kwon Barkley, Matt, do you
Speaker 1: believe it pick number three? Say Kwon Barkley is too high,
Speaker 1: too low or just right? He's too low because he
Speaker 1: should be locked in at number two. UM. I think
Speaker 1: CMC's ceiling and floor are just a tiny bit higher
Speaker 1: than say Kwan's. But the sky's the limit for Barkley.
Speaker 1: He's got a capable quarterback who can throw the ball downfield.
Speaker 1: Somehow that's working against him though, But it's like the
Speaker 1: opposite of Teddy Bridgewater. And the weapons in New York
Speaker 1: aren't bad. Darius Slayton, Sterling Shepard, Golden Tate, Evan Angram
Speaker 1: all pretty decent options. Now the drawback is you have
Speaker 1: Jason Garrett calling your place. But Jason Garrett's offenses in
Speaker 1: the past to feature a workhorse running back in Ezekiel Elliott.
Speaker 1: So I feel fine with se Kwon Barkley working in
Speaker 1: that offense, and I think he's a great pick at
Speaker 1: number two. Brian is gonna say he should be picked
Speaker 1: at number one. You could make that argument, but yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna basically agree with you. And those those weapons
Speaker 1: you mentioned, including Barkley, who last year was a disaster
Speaker 1: of course, injuries and but uh, Golden Tate missed the
Speaker 1: first four games of the season, Evan Ingram got injured
Speaker 1: during that span. They never had that full team together.
Speaker 1: And then yet Daniel Jones, who you know, started the season. Yeah,
Speaker 1: so that team never had a chance. They're finally going
Speaker 1: into a whole season together. The opening schedule is rough, though,
Speaker 1: which I don't like it. I believe it's Pittsburgh, Chicago,
Speaker 1: San Francisco and the Rams. Yikes, so that's a murderers row.
Speaker 1: It's almost like, as much as you I love Barkley,
Speaker 1: I think he's gonna bounce back in a big wave.
Speaker 1: Arguably the most talented running back in the NFL. That
Speaker 1: schedule scares me, and it's like it's more like a
Speaker 1: bye low opportunity. But I'm still gonna say he's too low.
Speaker 1: But keep that in mind that that opening schedu is
Speaker 1: a little scary, could be a slow start, so it
Speaker 1: could be tough on guillotine leaguers. Se kwon Barkley at
Speaker 1: number three, I believe is just right and I love him.
Speaker 1: He's he's the He's the best running back in the NFL.
Speaker 1: Did you set the ADP for ESPN charge per drafted
Speaker 1: on ESPN one thousand times? Just to make it just
Speaker 1: my way? I hope. I don't want to step on
Speaker 1: your toes. You might mention this, the Giants invested Andrew
Speaker 1: Thomas fourth overall. Okay, I'll let you keep going. They
Speaker 1: got their early first round pick and Andrew Thomas, who
Speaker 1: joins Nate Solder. Will Hernandez also very good blockers, and
Speaker 1: the Giants also put a third rounder into Matt Perkin.
Speaker 1: I mean, this is an offensive line that should get better,
Speaker 1: might take a little while, and again, you know, new
Speaker 1: offensive lines take a little bit to jelt. Maybe that's
Speaker 1: going to be the Yeah, it really does. And nowhere
Speaker 1: to go but up. Okay, let's go to a position
Speaker 1: number four. The public on ESPN is taking Ezekiel Elliott
Speaker 1: at number four. Let's go to Brian. Do you believe
Speaker 1: that ezequiellet number four is too high, too low or
Speaker 1: just right? Well, Michael Thomas has screwed this all up
Speaker 1: because everyone's too low. But um, let's let's just say
Speaker 1: behind se Kwan and McCaffrey, I'll say just right, um
Speaker 1: for Zeke just uh. He was a beast last year,
Speaker 1: probably the most consistent running back outside of McCaffrey, and
Speaker 1: the addition of Ceedee Lamb doesn't really concern me. There's
Speaker 1: a lot of weapons, aerial weapons. Blake jarr Went an
Speaker 1: upcoming tight end, gonna steal some red zone touches from Zeke.
Speaker 1: I think Tony Pollard's he's a little more run this year,
Speaker 1: trying to, you know, take the mileage off ze because
Speaker 1: there they've got him for the long haul now they
Speaker 1: like it or not. Right, he's locked in, So I
Speaker 1: don't know if he's gonna see just a slight downtick
Speaker 1: in usage for Elliott, but he's still gonna beed the
Speaker 1: same elite player on the same elite on the same
Speaker 1: lead offense. So he's just about right where he is. Uh,
Speaker 1: most of what Brian said is spot on. Kellen Moore
Speaker 1: stays as the offensive coordinator, so he's got something there. Um.
Speaker 1: He led the league with fifty nine red zone rushing
Speaker 1: attempts last steer and had twelve scores from that distance.
Speaker 1: Plus if by some chance, Dak Prescott decides to go
Speaker 1: Ezekiel Elliott on this and hold out, he's got Andy
Speaker 1: Dalton who's a capable backup quarterback. But Andy Dalton might
Speaker 1: hand Zeke the ball just a couple extra times. So
Speaker 1: I like Zeke is the third overall running back, and
Speaker 1: in my mind he's the third overall pick, So I
Speaker 1: think he's going a little bit too low. You talked
Speaker 1: about his red zone touches. Listen to this from inside
Speaker 1: the five yard line for Ezekiel Elliott. Over his three
Speaker 1: year career, he's had forty one carries from inside the
Speaker 1: five just in the last uh just in last two years,
Speaker 1: he's had thirty one even And but I want to
Speaker 1: spend a minute on Tony Pollard. And here's why I'm
Speaker 1: going to say this is too high. I'm legitimately worried
Speaker 1: about Tony Pollard significantly eating into his usage. He's a baller.
Speaker 1: He is a baller. Listened to this by many metrics.
Speaker 1: In fact, by most metrics, Tony Pollard was the better
Speaker 1: back last year. He ran for five point three yards
Speaker 1: per carry, and even when Paullard didn't touch the ball,
Speaker 1: the Cowboys average more yards per play on when Pollard
Speaker 1: was in the game than when Zeke was in the game.
Speaker 1: Pollard had the NFL's highest yards after contact last year.
Speaker 1: Among all runners that had at least his eighties six carries,
Speaker 1: he had the most yards per contact. Tony Pollard had
Speaker 1: a higher Pro Football Focus grade than Zeke did last year,
Speaker 1: both as a runner and as a receiver. And we
Speaker 1: saw Tony Pollard put up heavy usage games at the
Speaker 1: end of last year, Week fifteen and week seventeen last year,
Speaker 1: we're fourteen and fifteen touch games. At the end of
Speaker 1: last year, when Dallas was playing to try to get
Speaker 1: into the playoffs, they were relying on Tony Pollard down
Speaker 1: the stretch. Were those games at the end of last
Speaker 1: year a foreshadowing of what is to come this year?
Speaker 1: Don't don't you got me convinced? Uh? Tony Pollard also,
Speaker 1: I believe had the highest elusive rating in the league
Speaker 1: out of players who played more than uh eight games.
Speaker 1: That would not surprise me, considering he he led the
Speaker 1: NFL and yards after contact. The only the only the
Speaker 1: only guys who were even close to him was Kareem
Speaker 1: Hunt and he played exactly eight games. So anybody who
Speaker 1: played more than eight games, Tony Pollard was the most
Speaker 1: elusive running back in the league. He's too high. Now,
Speaker 1: did I talk to you? You're going to come out
Speaker 1: thinking about the players that are all right? So I
Speaker 1: still like seeke find I don't like him at number four.
Speaker 1: I think he's too high. So we have two two
Speaker 1: highs and the just right. Let's go to position number
Speaker 1: five and that is Dalvin Cook. Last year is running
Speaker 1: back six overall player number nine, depending on that's ESPN
Speaker 1: scoring system. You ESPN drafters are taking Doubt and Cook
Speaker 1: at position number five. Matt, do you believe that's too high?
Speaker 1: Too lower? Just right? I think just right again. Um.
Speaker 1: Things I found while digging in on Dalvin Cook. At
Speaker 1: the beginning of the season, they took Dalvin off the
Speaker 1: field more often on passing downs, and the Vikings developed
Speaker 1: a bit of a tell because Dalvin was on the
Speaker 1: field more often for rushing snaps and not for passing snaps.
Speaker 1: First five game he averaged only eighteen snaps per game
Speaker 1: on pass plays. But by the middle of the season
Speaker 1: and in his last three healthy games in his two
Speaker 1: playoff games, Dalvin was averaging twenty eight passing snaps per game. Uh.
Speaker 1: He's also in a contract here and it's not guaranteed
Speaker 1: that he comes back to the Purple. So the Vikings
Speaker 1: could go to Marco Murray with him and just run
Speaker 1: the tread off the tires this year, pass him the
Speaker 1: ball a brazillion times, keep him running, and just see
Speaker 1: what they get out of Dalvin this year. Yeah, I
Speaker 1: agree with everything you have to say. The Vikings also
Speaker 1: invested some draft capital in an offensive line as Cleveland
Speaker 1: in the second round. Second and uh yeah, the contract
Speaker 1: year thing is huge for fantasy football there. They're probably
Speaker 1: not going to extend with Minnesota, so they have nothing
Speaker 1: to lose and just feeding him the ball all day
Speaker 1: and win. The championship window is closing, sor is. Here's
Speaker 1: why I think you guys are wrong in the usage
Speaker 1: is he's just never been durable, never stayed healthy. And
Speaker 1: last year in the second half of the season, first
Speaker 1: half of the season, Dalvin Cook averaged five point two
Speaker 1: yards per carry. Second half of the season three point two.
Speaker 1: That's a massive difference. And it's just a guy who
Speaker 1: wears down. And it's as plausible as it could be
Speaker 1: that the Vikings would like to run him a lot
Speaker 1: and to just hand then give the keys to Alexander
Speaker 1: Madison next year. I don't think. I just don't think
Speaker 1: Dalvin Cook has built for that. So I don't believe
Speaker 1: that that is in fact going to happen, although we will.
Speaker 1: So it sounds like you think that he's ranked too high.
Speaker 1: Too high for Dalvin Cook, not a lot, and I
Speaker 1: think he is a little bit too high. We are
Speaker 1: working our way through the average first round. By your
Speaker 1: drafts on ESPN and validating or invalidating your selections at
Speaker 1: every pick of the first round. We've already been through
Speaker 1: Christian McCaffrey, Michael Thomas, say, Kwan Barkley is the first
Speaker 1: three players selected. Then Ezekiel Elliott, Dalves, Yeah, Ezekiel Elliott,
Speaker 1: Dalvin Cook. And now for selection number six, Alvin Camara
Speaker 1: being selected at position number six. Many people expecting a
Speaker 1: bounce back season after a very disappointing one last year. Brian,
Speaker 1: do you believe that Alvin Camari's position number six is
Speaker 1: too high, too low or just right? Here's one thing
Speaker 1: you can tank take to the bank of Alvin Camaro.
Speaker 1: He's gonna have eighty one catches this season. Yes, his
Speaker 1: rookie season one catches. Last season eighty one catches, So
Speaker 1: that's locked in. I like the eighty one catch aspect
Speaker 1: Alvin Camara. No, the touches went down a little bit
Speaker 1: for Camaro last year, twenty fewer catches obviously the twenty
Speaker 1: fewer carries that the catches were the same. Uh, the
Speaker 1: touchdowns went down big time from he had fourteen rushing
Speaker 1: touchdowns only five last year. Remember, famously, he had scored
Speaker 1: in one game until Week sixteen last year, and we're
Speaker 1: all languishing waiting for the touchdowns to come that never did.
Speaker 1: Taysom Hill, the aforementioned Taysom Hill, UH certainly stole some
Speaker 1: touches from Kamara in the red zone last year, or
Speaker 1: we'll probably do the same this year as well. The
Speaker 1: Tavius Murray that said, still an elite offense with a
Speaker 1: great uh run blocking offensive line and for like top
Speaker 1: twelve and Emmanuel Sanders comes in and makes that offense
Speaker 1: even a little better. I do think positive regression has
Speaker 1: to come. I think the touches will stay consistent in
Speaker 1: that offense. So I'm gonna say he's just about right
Speaker 1: where he's at because I still like him behind the
Speaker 1: Zeke and the the Alvin. Um. I'm sorry, the Dalvin
Speaker 1: Cooks of the world. Uh, Brian almost hit it right
Speaker 1: on the head. Uh. The Saints had the fifth best
Speaker 1: run blocking grade last season according to Pro Football Focus,
Speaker 1: but they were the eleventh best at rushing grade. That
Speaker 1: means they handed the ball to Lettavius Murray too much. UM,
Speaker 1: and I don't think that's the case this year. UH.
Speaker 1: Like Dalvin Cook, Alvin Kamara in a contract situation, and
Speaker 1: we discussed that in a previous episode of Fantasy Football Weekly. Um,
Speaker 1: these Saints cannot resign him. They do not have to
Speaker 1: resign him. So this is his last year in New Orleans.
Speaker 1: He only had a hundred and seventy one rushing attempts
Speaker 1: last year. I'm predicting at least two D twenty rushing
Speaker 1: attempts and I'm gonna say he beats eighty one receptions.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna say he gets to So he's closer to
Speaker 1: the twenty touch per game mark than he's ever been,
Speaker 1: and frankly, it could be more. So. I think the
Speaker 1: Saints really are going to try to work with Alvin
Speaker 1: Camara as their window is closing as well. I agree
Speaker 1: with everything you said, So you're too you'r you believe
Speaker 1: Alvin camary is. I might bump him up one. I
Speaker 1: might bump him ahead of Dalvin. I'd have no problem
Speaker 1: with that. We all think, we all think the bounce
Speaker 1: back is coming, and I do too. Let's go to
Speaker 1: pick number seven. The public is taking Derrick Henry, who
Speaker 1: was running back six or seven depending on your scoring system.
Speaker 1: Overall player number, uh player number, He's not right. I
Speaker 1: think his overall was player seven and as a running
Speaker 1: back he was player number five. I think believe that
Speaker 1: is correct from Derrick Henry. Do you believe, Matt, Do
Speaker 1: you believe Derrick Henry is too high or too low
Speaker 1: or just right at pick number seven? Keep in mind
Speaker 1: we are talking about PPR leagues. Um, well, if you
Speaker 1: think of Derrick Henry is a big, bruising running back,
Speaker 1: your which, But you didn't know that he had the
Speaker 1: seventh highest elusive rating of out of all running backs
Speaker 1: who played in at least ten games last year. So
Speaker 1: that's good. Um, more elusive than Austin Ekeler, Alvin Kamara,
Speaker 1: sa Kwan Barkley, and Dalvin Cook. You would never guess, Um,
Speaker 1: he's on the franchise tax. It's another contract here for
Speaker 1: him and the Titans finally realized that he is their
Speaker 1: bread and water. Is one of the best two to
Speaker 1: three players throughout the NFL playoffs last year. He also
Speaker 1: scored in thirteen of nineteen games last season at six
Speaker 1: multi score games, and his eleven red zone rushing touchdowns
Speaker 1: on only thirty five attempts was amazing. He scored on
Speaker 1: one third of his red zone rushing attempts inside the twenty.
Speaker 1: He scores that it's not inside, it's inside the five.
Speaker 1: So yeah, I mean his knock is he only had
Speaker 1: eighteen receptions. He's only getting targeted like one and a
Speaker 1: half times per game. So I think that he's too
Speaker 1: high for a PPR league. I would bump him down
Speaker 1: a couple of spots because now after we get past
Speaker 1: those five running backs that really like this is where
Speaker 1: I start to invest in some of those wide receivers.
Speaker 1: Brian is Derrick Henry too high, too low, or just
Speaker 1: right to pick number seven? Yeah, and PPR he's just
Speaker 1: a little too high. Dion Lewis is gone. All he
Speaker 1: could do was catch a football if given the opportunity.
Speaker 1: But Darienton Evans, the rookie they brought in, is even
Speaker 1: more like drinking us as good a pass catcher, if
Speaker 1: not better than Dion Lewis. So he's gonna own that role.
Speaker 1: Henry's not gonna factor much in the passing game. It
Speaker 1: does help the contractor year, though. You do think they'll
Speaker 1: give him a few extra carries if they're not willing
Speaker 1: to extend. But yeah, it just the lack of past catching.
Speaker 1: I won't say ability, but potential has him a little
Speaker 1: too high for me. I believe this is just right
Speaker 1: for Derrick Henry. He listened to these carries from inside
Speaker 1: the five. You talked about its red zone carries from
Speaker 1: carries inside the five over the past two year. Two years,
Speaker 1: Derrick Henry has thirty three in the last two years.
Speaker 1: Anybody else five get this? Last year he got all
Speaker 1: of them. Every single carry the team had inside the
Speaker 1: five went to Derrick Henry last year, and also a
Speaker 1: passing touchdown. And then there's the Tannehill effect. He topped
Speaker 1: one yards zero times in the first nine games last year.
Speaker 1: Derrick Henry did, and then he went berserk as Tannehill
Speaker 1: got acclimated into that offense. I believe Tannehill starting in
Speaker 1: Week six and then you know, after that, it was
Speaker 1: just lights out, as people already know. I believe Derrick
Speaker 1: Henry is properly rated where he is. Let's talk about
Speaker 1: player number eight again. These are your picks by average
Speaker 1: draft position on ESPN. You have selected DeAndre Hopkins with
Speaker 1: pick number eight. Gentlemen, Brian, is this too high? Too lower?
Speaker 1: Just right? It's gentlemen, and Brian, it's to uh. We
Speaker 1: didn't call me gettleman. I take much offense. That's um
Speaker 1: laugh in the face right there. I don't really like
Speaker 1: the move for DeAndre moving west to Arizona for fantasy football,
Speaker 1: reality football. Yeah, like a like it for him a
Speaker 1: little more, But there's just a ton of thrown the
Speaker 1: competition for targets out there, and Larry Fitzgerald, the one
Speaker 1: of the best to ever do it's still still doing it.
Speaker 1: Christian kirk Kenyan Drake catches the ball well out of
Speaker 1: the backfield. Uh, Andy is a bell. They put some
Speaker 1: decent draft capital into last where you think they're gonna
Speaker 1: try and find more of a role for him. Hakim
Speaker 1: Butler should also see an increased role if he stays healthy.
Speaker 1: There's just so many people there that he didn't. He
Speaker 1: didn't have that problem in h Houston was quite the opposite.
Speaker 1: People were always hurt, so he was the only one
Speaker 1: to throw too. And it's sort of it's a lateral move.
Speaker 1: I guess you can say, uh in quarterback from Watson
Speaker 1: to Kyler Murray. But whoa, whoa whoa Watson. Deshaun Watson
Speaker 1: is really really good, Like so is Kyler won. Deshaun
Speaker 1: Watson is really good. Kyler Murray is hoping to become
Speaker 1: Shaun Watson was very good with DeAndre Hopkins as his
Speaker 1: main wideness. Fair point, it is now very good with
Speaker 1: DeAndre Hopkins as his main wide receiver. They're comparable players
Speaker 1: on break. I think the weapons are comparable too. I
Speaker 1: I don't think that there's that much of a different
Speaker 1: step here. I mean you look at Will Fuller versus
Speaker 1: Christian Cook or Christian Kirk. Sorry, who would you rather have?
Speaker 1: I mean it Kirk, It's it's not come on, it's
Speaker 1: not that you know. Will Fuller is good at one thing,
Speaker 1: run straight, run fast, and other than that will touchdowns.
Speaker 1: And Will Fuller does not bring a lot to the table.
Speaker 1: I don't believe uh. And it's it's a little tougher
Speaker 1: division for wide receivers too. All throw it out there.
Speaker 1: The Seahawks rams both allowed about under one wide receiver
Speaker 1: touchdown per game. So that's a fair point. I like
Speaker 1: another wide receiver more than Hopkins, so he's just too
Speaker 1: high for me. So we have a too high on
Speaker 1: DeAndre Hopkins at position eight, and it's defensible, but it's
Speaker 1: too high. I got two other wide receivers that I
Speaker 1: like better. Agreed, DeAndre Hopkins too high at pick number eight.
Speaker 1: When we come back one more segment. It was a
Speaker 1: round out the bottom of the first round. These are
Speaker 1: your picks, the public's first picks in average draft position
Speaker 1: for selections nine, ten, eleven, and twelve. We'll tell you
Speaker 1: if you're getting those picks right or wrong when we
Speaker 1: come back, final segment of Fantasy Football Weekly. Welcome back
Speaker 1: to Fantasy Football Weekly. Paul Charge and Brian Johnson Matt
Speaker 1: Harrison with you. We are looking at the first round
Speaker 1: of fantasy football drafts, and a lot of them happening already,
Speaker 1: a lot of people getting in practice drafts, real drafts
Speaker 1: that are for leagues. It's just start early people that
Speaker 1: have already got a taste for fantasy football, and we're
Speaker 1: looking at your average draft position using ESPN's average drafts
Speaker 1: across all the thousands of leagues that have already drafted
Speaker 1: on ESPN. We've already done the first eight players. We
Speaker 1: now go to position number nine and Davante Adams. Last
Speaker 1: year because of a variety mostly the high ankle sprain
Speaker 1: that he had and then playing kind of gimpy after that,
Speaker 1: he ended up as wide receiver eighteen and player number
Speaker 1: fifty six. Yet here he is going at position number nine. Matt,
Speaker 1: is that too high or too low? Were just it's
Speaker 1: too low Davante Adams and uh Brian's gonna be right
Speaker 1: in lockstep with me because we kind of discussed before.
Speaker 1: I think Davante Adams has a serious case to be
Speaker 1: made for wide receiver one off the board. Um. He
Speaker 1: had double digit targets in ten of his last eleven games.
Speaker 1: He scored seven touchdowns in his final eight games after
Speaker 1: coming back from the injury. He's got a piste off
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers, who was excited for the Packers to draft
Speaker 1: him another wide receiver weapon in this year's draft, but
Speaker 1: then they picked his back up and and replaced Geronimo
Speaker 1: Allison with a fat Devin Funchious. It's Davante Adams and
Speaker 1: no one else, even Jimmy Graham's gone from that offense.
Speaker 1: If he stays healthy this year, he's in line for
Speaker 1: Michael Thomas like targets, maybe a hundred and seventy five.
Speaker 1: And I think that he's going too low. Yeah, I
Speaker 1: think Um Adams could average fifteen targets this year easily
Speaker 1: if he stays healthy. He didn't last year, but that
Speaker 1: was the first year he didn't stay healthy the three
Speaker 1: years before that. He was the only wide receiver with
Speaker 1: double digit touchdowns three street years. That should keep on
Speaker 1: rolling into this year. Uh for what it's Darius slay
Speaker 1: Um gone from Detroit. He gave him headaches twice a year.
Speaker 1: It's not that Xavier Rhodes was giving him headaches anymore,
Speaker 1: but short three of their top three starting cornerbacks, and
Speaker 1: the Bears actually weren't that tough against wide receivers. The
Speaker 1: defense in general took a major step back. So he's
Speaker 1: just gonna be the focal point of that offense. It's
Speaker 1: not going to be Aaron Jones. It's still gonna be
Speaker 1: Aaron Rodgers throwing Davanta Adams all day long. And it's
Speaker 1: I think it's double digit. I think he's the one
Speaker 1: guy you can say double digit touchdowns are a lock
Speaker 1: him and Thomas. But I just like Adams more. Thomas
Speaker 1: didn't do it the last two years. No, I didn't.
Speaker 1: And yet but get this, I bet, I bet almost
Speaker 1: all of our listeners have forgotten this. Davante Adams did
Speaker 1: not score until Week twelve last year. Week twelve, no
Speaker 1: touchdowns for Davante Adams. I don't know how you can
Speaker 1: guarantee double digit touchdowns. Now, he missed four games on
Speaker 1: the ankle sprain, and I appreciate that, but that still
Speaker 1: that means he played eight games and didn't score a touchdown.
Speaker 1: So I don't know that the safety the safety that
Speaker 1: you think is there. And I think this is much
Speaker 1: more about we all agreed Davanta Adams a very good receiver,
Speaker 1: very good, But is where is Aaron Rodgers in his
Speaker 1: career arc? I think really ranking Davante Adams is a
Speaker 1: referendum on Rogers, who last year saw his lowest completion
Speaker 1: percentage of his career, second lowest yards in any full season.
Speaker 1: He is touchdown numbers the last two years twenty five
Speaker 1: and twenty six. What I mean those are you know
Speaker 1: those are middle Those are Andy Dalton style touchdown numbers
Speaker 1: and the second lowest passer rating for Aaron Rodgers since
Speaker 1: his first year as a starter. This, you know, Aaron
Speaker 1: Rodgers last year was not the Hall of Famer we
Speaker 1: were used to seeing. And if maybe he bounces back,
Speaker 1: maybe he's got another good the firm quarterback controversy, No
Speaker 1: I'm not, but I don't know that it's a guarantee
Speaker 1: that Aaron Rodgers gets better. Let's go to a position. Okay,
Speaker 1: so you guys both say two. I say just right,
Speaker 1: Davante Adams. Let's go to wide receiver, sorry, position number ten.
Speaker 1: Who is a wide receiver by your average draft selection?
Speaker 1: That is Julio Jones last year wide receiver number five,
Speaker 1: overall player number twenty two. Is this too high, too low?
Speaker 1: Or just right? I've been publicly knocking Julio for years,
Speaker 1: and not because he's bad as he's at his job.
Speaker 1: He's great as his at his job. But he's had
Speaker 1: foot and hamstring injuries that just kind of lingered, and
Speaker 1: he's been questionable for like his entire career. Um he
Speaker 1: hasn't been adequately adequately targeted in the red zone for
Speaker 1: a receiver of his size until last year, when he
Speaker 1: was targeted sixteen times in the red zone, but he
Speaker 1: only came up with five red zone touchdowns, and he
Speaker 1: only came up with six touchdowns total. And while we're
Speaker 1: talking touchdowns, Julio Jones scored in one game after Week
Speaker 1: three last year. Well, yeah, and so he is also
Speaker 1: on the team that led the league in passes by
Speaker 1: a ton. They passed six eighty three times they were
Speaker 1: behind in every game. Um. He's also had seven straight
Speaker 1: years of eight or fewer touchdowns. He just has not
Speaker 1: He's hit the double digit mark once. He's a great player,
Speaker 1: but I would never pick him in the first round
Speaker 1: of a fantasy draft. I would wait till the second
Speaker 1: round to see if he's there. If you forced me
Speaker 1: to take in Atlanta Falcon wide receiver in the first round,
Speaker 1: it wouldn't be would not be Julio Jones this year.
Speaker 1: I like Calvin Ridley's prospects. Russell Cage that hates Calvin Ridley,
Speaker 1: bow we gotta get to dedicate a whole podcast to you.
Speaker 1: Just don't like him for whatever reason. But anyway, I
Speaker 1: just don't want to pay what other people are paying.
Speaker 1: Ridley is just turning it on. I think really out
Speaker 1: those out of school Julio this year. I don't want
Speaker 1: to go too much into it. Ridley came on strong
Speaker 1: last year. He started last year strong four touchdowns in
Speaker 1: his four touchdowns on the first six games, uh three
Speaker 1: touchdowns in his last four, had target totals of fourteen
Speaker 1: and ten and two of his last three. He looked
Speaker 1: like the alpha receiver at the end of last year
Speaker 1: and I could see that certainly taking this year. Wi
Speaker 1: Leo Jones is only thirty one, only quote, and he's
Speaker 1: only thirty one, but he's an old thirty one with
Speaker 1: the eight hundred receptions, right, He's just a lot of
Speaker 1: miles on that body. And I'd rather get out a
Speaker 1: year too early than a year too late. Jones, and
Speaker 1: so at position number ten, all three of us agree,
Speaker 1: Julio Jones going too high. Let's go to position number eleven.
Speaker 1: The public is taking Tyreek Hill last year wide receiver
Speaker 1: twenties seven and the seventy three highest scoring player overall.
Speaker 1: Obviously a variety of problems. He had shoulder and hamstring injuries,
Speaker 1: his quarterback missed a month of games, and he ultimately
Speaker 1: ended up suffering career lows in every category. Is Tyreek
Speaker 1: Hill too high, too low? Or just right? Brian? Yeah?
Speaker 1: And last season, I'm not giving him a pass by
Speaker 1: any means for his behavior off the field, but he
Speaker 1: was going into last year. Everyone hated him, you know,
Speaker 1: he was a villain, So it was. It was a
Speaker 1: tough year for Tyreek last year. He kind of deserved it,
Speaker 1: But going into this season doesn't appear to be the case.
Speaker 1: I don't see how he regresses whatsoever. His numbers can
Speaker 1: only go up. I'm just gonna keep this very simple. Uh.
Speaker 1: I think he's well. Considering we had Julio in this
Speaker 1: a DP, he's too low, But removing Julio from the equation,
Speaker 1: we're all in agreement. He's way too high. I think
Speaker 1: we can say Tyreek Hill is just about right as
Speaker 1: wide receiver. So you're just about right at position number
Speaker 1: eleven for Tyreek Hill, Matt, I have Hill is my
Speaker 1: number three wide receiver behind Thomas and Adams. Um you
Speaker 1: you kind of mentioned a charge. There were six games
Speaker 1: that either Tyreek Hill wasn't playing or Patrick Mahomes wasn't playing,
Speaker 1: So that's only ten games where they were together and
Speaker 1: Hill was dinged up or Mahomes was dinged up for
Speaker 1: a few of them. He's still finished with seven touchdowns
Speaker 1: and he led the league. Was sorry it was fifth
Speaker 1: in the league with four touchdown receptions at twenty yards
Speaker 1: or more. He's so explosive. I think that he's always
Speaker 1: in play. Is as a top three wide receiver, Tyreek
Speaker 1: Hill is too low and far too large. Fact, I
Speaker 1: think this is the worst ranking here. He's my number
Speaker 1: two wide receiver. I can in my mind, you can
Speaker 1: take Tyreek Hill as high as selection number four in
Speaker 1: this draft. I love Tyreek Hill. Um. Insiders around the
Speaker 1: Chiefs tell me that Patrick Mahomes is good. I would
Speaker 1: like to have his number. Um, I can't. I can't
Speaker 1: reveal my sources. I'm Patrick Mahomes. Remember he's one season
Speaker 1: removed from sixteen hundred total yards in thirteen touchdowns for
Speaker 1: Tyreek hill Um. And if you think Patrick Mahomes is
Speaker 1: going to bounce back to have a season a healthy
Speaker 1: sixteen games, that mirrors what he had closer to that
Speaker 1: puts Tyrek Hill right back at six hundred yards and
Speaker 1: thirteen touch Is there still a bylow opportunity on Hill
Speaker 1: and dynasty or is it? No? I think it's still there.
Speaker 1: I do think it's still there because people replay last
Speaker 1: year too much. Al Right, guys, we've got about one
Speaker 1: minute to break down the final player to be selected
Speaker 1: in the first round by the public according to ESPN's
Speaker 1: average draft position, and that is Packers running back Aaron Jones,
Speaker 1: who finished his running back four last year and player
Speaker 1: seven overall. Yeah, fourteen red zone rushing touchdowns last year
Speaker 1: led the league. Then They drafted a J. Dillon, whose
Speaker 1: deal is to be the red zone running back, and
Speaker 1: Packers coach Matt Lafleur is trying to build a Kyle
Speaker 1: Shanahan like system, and the Niners deploy their running backs
Speaker 1: in weird ways. You'd think Raheems start led their team
Speaker 1: in red zone rushing touches. No, it was Tevin Coleman
Speaker 1: with twenty six and then Jeff Wilson with sixteen. Most
Speaker 1: are it was third. So I see A J. Dillon
Speaker 1: doing the same thing and stealing from Aaron Jones this year.
Speaker 1: He's way too high. Last year fifty cent of Aaron
Speaker 1: Jones is sixteen games were inside the top twelve long
Speaker 1: running backs, but thirty over thirty percent were outside the
Speaker 1: top thirty. That's that's too Jekal and hide for me.
Speaker 1: His usage can't be trusted even with the floor uh
Speaker 1: And as Matt said, they drafted a J. Dillon, which
Speaker 1: he's more a head ached. Jamal Williams is still there.
Speaker 1: He he cannot win. He might be able to win
Speaker 1: your year league, but he could certainly lose you your league.
Speaker 1: If you draft Aaron Jones in the first round, I
Speaker 1: think I think Brian you hit it right on the head.
Speaker 1: The danger here is that Aaron Jones gets schemed out
Speaker 1: of too many Packer games and absolutely no good reason.
Speaker 1: I can't have my first round draft picking schemed out
Speaker 1: of his own games. Down now, in the first round,
Speaker 1: I don't mind taking the handcuff the you know, the
Speaker 1: two part running back. They are running back in the
Speaker 1: third round or something, but not the the end of
Speaker 1: the first round. That's too early. And then there's the
Speaker 1: intangible here. With all of the heat the Packers took
Speaker 1: for selecting A. J. Dillon, I'm worried that general manager
Speaker 1: Brian guda Kunst is going to basically require that they
Speaker 1: use Dylan in meaningful ways to take some heat off
Speaker 1: this front office. Packers universally had the lowest graded draft,
Speaker 1: and it's care it over to the you know, general
Speaker 1: public psyche, the player's psyche, everything else. I really do
Speaker 1: worry about A J. Dillon and that threat being real.
Speaker 1: We didn't mention any tight ends or quarterbacks, and I
Speaker 1: think that there's four of those two two positions. Give
Speaker 1: me a name and one sentence on each guy, because
Speaker 1: that's all we have time. So I mean Travis Kelsey
Speaker 1: and George Kittle could easily go in the first round
Speaker 1: because I don't think tight end is as deep as
Speaker 1: some other people think. Uh And Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes,
Speaker 1: they're just on a different level from a fantasy perspective
Speaker 1: than the other quarterbacks. I'd wait if I don't get
Speaker 1: either of those two guys, but it's completely defensible taking
Speaker 1: Lamar Jackson, who gives you RB one ish kind of
Speaker 1: numbers at the quarterback position in your top five currently
Speaker 1: going in the early to middle second round by average,
Speaker 1: John Lamar Jackson, And I'll throw one more name that's
Speaker 1: first round worthy out there. If it's running back, it's
Speaker 1: Joe Mixon could Certainly a lot of people think the
Speaker 1: Bengals are are looking better with the selections that they
Speaker 1: made in the in the off season, both in the
Speaker 1: draft and free agency. Thank you for listening to Fantasy
Speaker 1: Football Weekly, everybody. We will be back next week. If
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