WEBVTT - Week 17 NFL Best Bets (Ep. 146) 0:00:13.720 --> 0:00:17.320 Hey everybody, Welcome back to the Betting Pros Podcast, brought 0:00:17.360 --> 0:00:20.240 to you by bet MGM. I am your host, Dan Harris. 0:00:20.280 --> 0:00:22.080 You can find me on Twitter at Dan Harris eighty. 0:00:22.120 --> 0:00:24.759 It's week seventeen. It's time to talk about some of 0:00:24.800 --> 0:00:28.080 our best bets. With me to do that is Scott Bogman. 0:00:28.360 --> 0:00:31.200 He's the co host of In This League podcast. You 0:00:31.240 --> 0:00:33.600 know him from the Betting Pros College Football Show and 0:00:33.680 --> 0:00:38.040 pretty much from everywhere. Find him on Twitter at Bogman Sports. Bogwin. 0:00:38.120 --> 0:00:40.520 Thank you for taking time out of your busy day 0:00:40.960 --> 0:00:42.360 to pop on this pod. How are you. 0:00:42.760 --> 0:00:44.760 I'm doing great, man, Thank you for having me. I 0:00:44.800 --> 0:00:49.040 love talking to anything NFL always so yeah show. 0:00:49.120 --> 0:00:51.280 And we like talking to each other anyway, just because 0:00:51.560 --> 0:00:53.840 you know we've been on each other's podcast. It's good time. 0:00:53.880 --> 0:00:56.760 It's always fun. So long as we pick WINNERDS Bogman, 0:00:56.800 --> 0:00:58.840 that's all anybody cares about. Trust me. I can tell 0:00:58.880 --> 0:01:01.440 from the comments Center Tube channel, so don't worry about it. 0:01:01.600 --> 0:01:04.320 I know from some of the emails I've got all right. 0:01:04.800 --> 0:01:07.399 So look usually, by the way, you guys have noticed 0:01:07.480 --> 0:01:09.160 the last two weeks, we have not done the look 0:01:09.200 --> 0:01:12.319 Ahead podcast like the early one just to take an 0:01:12.319 --> 0:01:14.240 early look at the lines. One of it was because 0:01:14.280 --> 0:01:16.280 it was just Christmas and getting people's hard. But right 0:01:16.319 --> 0:01:19.160 now with the COVID situation, man, like, is one. 0:01:19.120 --> 0:01:23.960 Hundred guys came off the COVID list today? Yeah, because it's. 0:01:22.760 --> 0:01:25.080 Getting a little easier obviously because of the fact that 0:01:25.120 --> 0:01:27.840 they change the protocol now, so like guys being put on. 0:01:28.200 --> 0:01:30.399 But now at this point, Bagman, I think if people 0:01:30.400 --> 0:01:32.920 get put on the list, they're out because you still 0:01:32.920 --> 0:01:35.559 need the five days, so this may still change things. 0:01:35.560 --> 0:01:37.039 We'll do the best we can, wait as long as 0:01:37.080 --> 0:01:40.160 possible to make your bets as full. Yes, my general recommendation. 0:01:40.200 --> 0:01:42.200 All right, usual deal, three best bets of the weekend 0:01:42.240 --> 0:01:44.560 spreads totals, money line, whatever you want to do. Then 0:01:44.560 --> 0:01:48.080 we'll run through the remaining spreads. Don't forget to subscribe 0:01:48.080 --> 0:01:50.000 to our YouTube channel. You can be watching this podcast 0:01:50.240 --> 0:01:52.800 over at YouTube dot com slash betting Pros. Then go 0:01:52.800 --> 0:01:55.080 to betting Pros dot com slash helmet. Very quickly you 0:01:55.080 --> 0:01:58.040 can win a sign Saquon Barkley helmet and our latest 0:01:58.040 --> 0:02:01.320 offer from bet MGM new customers ten dollars two hundred dollars. 0:02:01.400 --> 0:02:04.680 If your team scores a touchdown again. That's for new customers. 0:02:04.760 --> 0:02:08.080 Use the code Juice one hundred. That's available in New Jersey, Colorado, Indiana, 0:02:08.120 --> 0:02:13.160 West Virginia, Tennessee, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Virginia, Iowa, Washington, DC, Arizona, Nyoman. 0:02:13.520 --> 0:02:15.839 Let's quickly do the recap of last week. Our guest 0:02:15.919 --> 0:02:18.960 Pat Fitzmorris took an over so you can only go 0:02:19.120 --> 0:02:20.800 up here bo. Yeah, it was a bad one. He 0:02:20.880 --> 0:02:22.520 was very upset about it, by the way. The one 0:02:22.520 --> 0:02:25.120 thing I will say about Pat is Pat takes this 0:02:25.200 --> 0:02:27.440 to heart more than anybody I know. Like he is 0:02:27.520 --> 0:02:30.040 like I can help believe it, blah blah blah. But 0:02:30.080 --> 0:02:32.000 he is a great on the prop bets for sure, 0:02:32.040 --> 0:02:33.720 and he's he's still been running hot on that, so 0:02:33.760 --> 0:02:36.799 make sure you check out his article at bettingpros dot com. 0:02:36.840 --> 0:02:38.519 But he missing the Chargers were one. 0:02:38.840 --> 0:02:41.080 The Chargers were one. Yes, yes, the. 0:02:41.160 --> 0:02:44.280 Chargers didn't miss on that. You know, everybody that was bad. 0:02:44.639 --> 0:02:46.680 I don't know, man, anytime you're a double digit spread, though, 0:02:46.720 --> 0:02:49.600 it always makes me just you know whatever, It makes 0:02:49.600 --> 0:02:51.360 me tough this sort of take out. He also missed 0:02:51.360 --> 0:02:52.880 on the Seahawks playing six and a half to the 0:02:52.880 --> 0:02:55.240 Bears and the under forty three and a half points 0:02:55.240 --> 0:02:57.160 in the Bills Patriots, so he really wasn't close on 0:02:57.200 --> 0:03:00.160 any of them. I went two and one. Officially, I 0:03:00.240 --> 0:03:01.720 hit on the Bills getting two and a half from 0:03:01.760 --> 0:03:04.320 the Pats, the Raiders giving one to the Broncos, and 0:03:04.360 --> 0:03:06.800 I missed on the Ravens who were getting three to 0:03:06.880 --> 0:03:09.280 the Bengals. I did say, wait as long as possible, 0:03:09.320 --> 0:03:11.640 and then after that everybody was declared out and it 0:03:11.680 --> 0:03:16.399 was Joshahnson. But admittedly that game they would have probably lost. 0:03:16.520 --> 0:03:18.720 They didn't lose because of Josh Johnson. 0:03:18.440 --> 0:03:20.639 That's correct. They would have lost regardless of who was 0:03:20.639 --> 0:03:23.239 that quarterback. So I will take the l on that regardless, 0:03:23.280 --> 0:03:26.000 even though I did buy out of it, to be fair. 0:03:26.639 --> 0:03:29.320 Once everything moved, I'm now basically an even twenty four 0:03:29.320 --> 0:03:31.520 and twenty four in the year. So very exciting there. 0:03:31.520 --> 0:03:33.880 All right, Bogwin, you're our guest. You get to lead 0:03:33.960 --> 0:03:36.360 us off here. We just by the way, I just 0:03:36.480 --> 0:03:38.640 found out Bogwin's picks right before this, because I don't 0:03:38.640 --> 0:03:40.360 want to overlap on him, and I will say that 0:03:40.520 --> 0:03:42.600 one of them was my picks. I'm very excited about 0:03:42.600 --> 0:03:44.960 it bogwin, start us off anywhere you want. What do 0:03:44.960 --> 0:03:45.320 you got? 0:03:45.440 --> 0:03:47.600 Give me the Los Angeles Rams minus three and a 0:03:47.680 --> 0:03:50.800 half on the road against those Baltimore Ravens. And the 0:03:50.880 --> 0:03:53.920 reason I like the Rams in this game is number one, desperation. 0:03:54.000 --> 0:03:58.000 They need wins, right, They need to keep the Cardinals 0:03:58.040 --> 0:04:00.920 at arm's length here, so they they need this win. 0:04:01.320 --> 0:04:04.680 And just the patheticness of the Ravens defense that we 0:04:04.760 --> 0:04:07.640 saw last week. And it's not And I've hit this 0:04:07.720 --> 0:04:10.360 part home because I'm a Steelers fan and everybody knows 0:04:10.400 --> 0:04:12.440 that I don't like the Ravens. I don't like the Bengals, 0:04:12.440 --> 0:04:14.840 I don't like the Browns, right, So I get it. 0:04:15.000 --> 0:04:17.560 But it's not the Ravens' fault that they're bad. It's 0:04:17.560 --> 0:04:20.840 not like their best skill position players are playing terribly. 0:04:21.200 --> 0:04:24.960 They are down to guys off the street playing quarterback. 0:04:25.520 --> 0:04:28.840 Anthony Averrett, who was terrible, who was third in the 0:04:28.960 --> 0:04:32.000 league in yards given up, just had surgery and is 0:04:32.000 --> 0:04:33.800 out for the year. And they were starting that guy. 0:04:34.160 --> 0:04:37.240 So now Chris Westry and some other scrub are starting 0:04:37.360 --> 0:04:41.239 in the defensive backfield for them, and Chuck Clark hasn't 0:04:41.240 --> 0:04:44.600 been great all year, he's smart and he's the play 0:04:44.640 --> 0:04:47.360 caller for them, but he hasn't been great in coverage. 0:04:47.400 --> 0:04:51.280 So I just expect the Rams to sit and pick 0:04:51.400 --> 0:04:53.960 the Ravens apart, and I think they win by way 0:04:53.960 --> 0:04:55.880 more than three and a half, even on the road. 0:04:56.040 --> 0:04:58.479 Lamar's GIMPI we don't know what the offense is gonna 0:04:58.480 --> 0:05:01.600 look like, especially with this bust offensive line against erld 0:05:01.720 --> 0:05:04.920 Aaron Donald and company. I just don't see a way 0:05:04.960 --> 0:05:06.880 that the Ravens come away with a winning this game. 0:05:07.000 --> 0:05:09.719 So give me the Rams and I'll lay the points. 0:05:10.240 --> 0:05:13.320 My hesitation with it, bagman, is don't you think this 0:05:13.480 --> 0:05:15.880 spread begs you to take the Rams? Like I mean, 0:05:15.920 --> 0:05:18.640 you look at the Ravens right now. Their secondary, like 0:05:18.680 --> 0:05:21.800 you said, is just an embarrassment and nothing to them, 0:05:21.839 --> 0:05:24.520 Like they're just dealing with incredible amount of injuries and 0:05:24.920 --> 0:05:27.600 kudos to John Harbaugh for keeping them together as long 0:05:27.640 --> 0:05:29.760 as they have. But like I look at this and 0:05:29.760 --> 0:05:32.279 I'm like, of course I'm taking the Rams. You know, 0:05:32.360 --> 0:05:34.120 a team like the Rams, it gets me. 0:05:34.279 --> 0:05:36.960 I just they know they laid some eggs. They have. 0:05:37.279 --> 0:05:40.039 The Tennessee game after Derrick Henry got hurt was a 0:05:40.120 --> 0:05:42.279 huge eg but I think they're past that point in 0:05:42.320 --> 0:05:44.320 the season. And you know, some of it was growing 0:05:44.320 --> 0:05:47.400 pains with Matthew Stafford and mcveighe it's getting on the 0:05:47.480 --> 0:05:49.480 right page. But you saw him get on the right 0:05:49.480 --> 0:05:51.719 page last week. And it looks like they've been building. 0:05:51.920 --> 0:05:52.360 Obviously. 0:05:52.400 --> 0:05:55.120 Henderson is down, but cam Akers is back now and 0:05:55.120 --> 0:05:58.320 Sony Michelle is in a bang up job placing Henderson 0:05:58.320 --> 0:06:01.040 as well. So and I know they lost Robert Woods, 0:06:01.080 --> 0:06:04.400 but god, ob jay like the offense is starting to 0:06:04.520 --> 0:06:06.839 click now. And yes, it is a little bit of 0:06:06.839 --> 0:06:09.680 a bait game, but I think it started out at 0:06:09.680 --> 0:06:13.080 three and it's because well, Lamar Jackson is going to play, 0:06:13.120 --> 0:06:15.320 and Lamar Jackson makes the Ravens a different team, but 0:06:15.360 --> 0:06:16.520 he doesn't help their defense. 0:06:16.640 --> 0:06:17.120 Guy can't. 0:06:17.200 --> 0:06:19.000 I mean, he probably could play corner, but they're not 0:06:19.040 --> 0:06:21.159 going to put him out there to play corner, especially 0:06:21.200 --> 0:06:23.960 as campy as he is. So I understand your hesitation 0:06:23.960 --> 0:06:26.320 because the Rams have looked wishy washy this year, but 0:06:26.360 --> 0:06:26.960 I think they're. 0:06:26.800 --> 0:06:28.840 Locked in right now. Yeah, I wouldn't be surprised to 0:06:28.880 --> 0:06:31.920 see the line move. I guess in favor then, because 0:06:32.200 --> 0:06:34.760 it's true. And again we Lamar misspractice we're recording this 0:06:34.800 --> 0:06:38.360 on Thursday, Mispractice today, So his best bet is really Gimby. 0:06:38.400 --> 0:06:40.360 Other than that, you're looking at Huntley and you know 0:06:40.400 --> 0:06:43.440 who is off the COVID Reserve nineteen list obviously, but 0:06:44.160 --> 0:06:46.160 that's you know. I'm glad he played a great game 0:06:46.640 --> 0:06:48.680 in the one that he did against the Packers, but 0:06:49.040 --> 0:06:51.160 it's really hard to rely on them. So yeah, I 0:06:51.800 --> 0:06:54.320 get it. I'm probably not gonna bet at myself, but 0:06:54.360 --> 0:06:56.960 certainly there's no way I could back the Ravens in 0:06:57.040 --> 0:07:01.000 this spot. I'm gonna go Bogmin and I gotta lead 0:07:01.040 --> 0:07:04.480 with your with your boys, with your team, who I 0:07:04.480 --> 0:07:06.880 imagine you're not too happy with right now, but I'm 0:07:06.880 --> 0:07:08.920 gonna take them here, Bogman, get in three and a 0:07:08.960 --> 0:07:11.200 half against the Browns. I assume it is. Actually I'm 0:07:11.200 --> 0:07:13.480 gonna double check, make sure it's still at three. It's 0:07:13.480 --> 0:07:15.040 still three and a half. I'm taking them three and 0:07:15.040 --> 0:07:18.040 a half. And Bogman, you're a fan of the Steelers. 0:07:18.120 --> 0:07:21.120 You know the classic Mike Tomlin spots, of course, and 0:07:21.560 --> 0:07:23.880 this is one of them where you are left for dead. 0:07:23.920 --> 0:07:28.160 You're coming off a horrific performance, You're an underdog. You 0:07:28.320 --> 0:07:31.200 back Tomlin as an underdog. Yeah, Backham as an underdog 0:07:31.280 --> 0:07:33.840 late in the season. You back them as a home dog, like, 0:07:34.040 --> 0:07:37.120 that's just what you do. It's a second divisional game here. 0:07:37.200 --> 0:07:40.480 Those games are always tight, like, regardless of anything, regardless 0:07:40.480 --> 0:07:42.840 of the disparity among the teams, a second divisional game 0:07:43.120 --> 0:07:46.360 is almost always tight. It's Ben's last game. There's my 0:07:46.440 --> 0:07:48.680 garage door. Everybody knows who listens to the podcast still 0:07:48.880 --> 0:07:52.280 still going. Don't worry about it. Every podcast doesn't matter. 0:07:52.600 --> 0:07:55.280 It will happen. Okay, so it Ben's last game in 0:07:55.360 --> 0:07:59.120 hinz Field all but confirmed as of today. They are terrible. 0:07:59.200 --> 0:08:01.120 Of course, they look parable against the Chiefs, but the 0:08:01.160 --> 0:08:04.560 Chiefs are really really good, especially at home. Like Baker 0:08:04.560 --> 0:08:08.160 Mayfield's not playing great. He just had the four pick game. 0:08:08.320 --> 0:08:12.240 Kevin Stefanski. I came across the stat on Twitter. Admittedly 0:08:12.440 --> 0:08:15.360 I did not find in myself Kevin Stefanski in divisional 0:08:15.400 --> 0:08:18.280 games is one to nine against the spread, which I 0:08:18.320 --> 0:08:23.320 did not know. Came across it verified it. So that's crazy. Now, 0:08:23.520 --> 0:08:28.000 look the on paper, you're like, okay, great, let's take 0:08:28.040 --> 0:08:30.480 a great running team like the Browns and let's put 0:08:30.480 --> 0:08:32.839 them against one of the worst rush defenses in all 0:08:32.880 --> 0:08:36.880 football with the Steelers. That's not good. But Pittsburgh's thirtieth 0:08:36.920 --> 0:08:39.959 in defensive DVOA against the run thirty first in defensive 0:08:40.000 --> 0:08:43.400 DVOA against the run is the Packers who still just 0:08:43.480 --> 0:08:47.320 managed to beat the Browns here. So again, I don't 0:08:47.360 --> 0:08:49.600 love the Browns, Bogman. It really is like I think 0:08:49.640 --> 0:08:52.120 Mayfield is just, you know, considering all the injuries stuff 0:08:52.160 --> 0:08:55.120 like that, not playing well. I think this is just 0:08:55.200 --> 0:08:58.040 a spot where Tomlin somehow figures out a way to 0:08:58.080 --> 0:09:01.080 get them up off that loss. Would you with the hook? 0:09:01.200 --> 0:09:03.280 I wouldn't love it at three, although I'll probably bet 0:09:03.280 --> 0:09:04.640 them on the money line too, just because I do 0:09:04.679 --> 0:09:08.679 that always with a short home dog. But getting the hook, Bogwin, 0:09:09.320 --> 0:09:11.479 I like it. Talk to me about your team. 0:09:11.320 --> 0:09:13.640 I mean, you know it's they're not good. 0:09:14.000 --> 0:09:16.000 I'll say, this is one of the worst Steelers teams 0:09:16.040 --> 0:09:19.280 I've ever seen, But the worst Steeler team I ever 0:09:19.320 --> 0:09:22.000 seen is about an average Browns team, you know, so, 0:09:22.760 --> 0:09:23.319 and that's. 0:09:23.160 --> 0:09:23.560 What you know. 0:09:23.640 --> 0:09:26.440 The Browns are probably better than the Steelers right now. 0:09:26.480 --> 0:09:28.440 But you know, all the stuff that you just said, 0:09:28.440 --> 0:09:32.120 you got to take in consideration. Ben's teammates playing for 0:09:32.160 --> 0:09:34.800 his pride in this game, because his regular season record 0:09:34.800 --> 0:09:36.880 against the Browns is twenty five to three and one 0:09:37.240 --> 0:09:42.520 in his career. So you know, I'm picking the Steelers too. 0:09:42.640 --> 0:09:44.840 I never bet the Steelers because I find that to 0:09:44.880 --> 0:09:47.120 be bad luck for me and I hate losing twice, 0:09:47.240 --> 0:09:49.680 you know, losing in my real life with my team 0:09:49.720 --> 0:09:52.880 and then my mom too, So I just never find 0:09:52.920 --> 0:09:55.640 that to be good luck. They do match up well 0:09:55.679 --> 0:09:58.400 here the Browns against Pittsburgh because they are running team 0:09:58.440 --> 0:10:01.680 against a bad running defense. But in the divisional games, 0:10:01.679 --> 0:10:04.280 things get weird, especially in AFC North divisional games. I 0:10:04.280 --> 0:10:07.160 mean Cleveland was clicking on all cylinders early earlier in 0:10:07.200 --> 0:10:10.200 this year they played Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh won fifteen to ten, 0:10:10.360 --> 0:10:13.880 you know, so just it doesn't make any sense sometimes 0:10:13.880 --> 0:10:17.680 this rivalry. So I'm definitely taking the Steelers at home 0:10:17.880 --> 0:10:20.600 with his teammates playing for him in his very last 0:10:20.600 --> 0:10:21.960 home game for Ben. 0:10:22.120 --> 0:10:24.320 So I'm just going to be shocked, man, I'm going 0:10:24.360 --> 0:10:27.000 to be shocked if they not. I could see them losing. 0:10:27.080 --> 0:10:29.760 I think if Cleveland wins, they blow the doors off Pittsburgh. 0:10:29.800 --> 0:10:32.000 I don't think it's every close win. I think if 0:10:32.000 --> 0:10:34.199 Cleveland wins, it's going to be just like the playoff 0:10:34.240 --> 0:10:37.719 game last year. They come in, they stunned the Steelers 0:10:37.760 --> 0:10:39.480 and then they're stunned for the rest of the game. 0:10:40.160 --> 0:10:42.319 With something like that, I don't think it's going to 0:10:42.360 --> 0:10:45.280 be a down to the wire win for Cleveland. I 0:10:45.280 --> 0:10:47.760 think if it's down to the wire, I would favorite Pittsburgh. 0:10:47.840 --> 0:10:50.720 The craziest thing, Bagman, is that both of these teams 0:10:50.760 --> 0:10:53.480 at this point like could be this could be a 0:10:53.480 --> 0:10:55.400 fight for the division. That's right. 0:10:55.480 --> 0:10:59.440 Yeah, yeah, they're both in playoff contention still somehow with 0:10:59.520 --> 0:11:02.120 the terrible seasons that they're having, and they're both you know, 0:11:02.200 --> 0:11:05.360 not good. But we've seen weird stuff happen in the playoffs. 0:11:05.400 --> 0:11:07.000 So all you got to do is get in, get 0:11:07.040 --> 0:11:09.400 into the playoffs, and that's the goal for everybody right now. 0:11:09.440 --> 0:11:11.680 I think if the Chiefs beat the Bengals and the 0:11:11.720 --> 0:11:14.319 Browns control their own destiny to win the division, I 0:11:14.440 --> 0:11:16.800 think that's what it is. And the Steelers if they 0:11:16.880 --> 0:11:18.880 win and then the Bengals is next week, and then 0:11:18.960 --> 0:11:21.080 the Steelers. If the Browns beat the Bengals next week, 0:11:22.240 --> 0:11:23.199 win the division for. 0:11:23.200 --> 0:11:25.080 The Steelers to win the division, but they can still 0:11:25.080 --> 0:11:25.800 get a wild card. 0:11:26.000 --> 0:11:28.599 Yeah, correct, Yeah, the Bargers. 0:11:28.200 --> 0:11:30.080 Are playing the way the Ravens are playing, and the 0:11:30.120 --> 0:11:32.360 Browns and everybody in front of them is not good 0:11:32.360 --> 0:11:36.520 except for maybe Miami. Yeah, it's that last seed is 0:11:36.800 --> 0:11:38.240 up for grabs for sure. 0:11:38.720 --> 0:11:41.480 Spoiler alert. I do not expect Miami to win this game, 0:11:41.480 --> 0:11:43.880 which we'll talk about in a little bit, but yeah, 0:11:43.920 --> 0:11:46.800 I will. I Everything about this points to the Steelers 0:11:46.800 --> 0:11:48.880 here and again, there have been games where I've been like, 0:11:48.920 --> 0:11:50.959 this is almost spot, I love it, and then they 0:11:51.080 --> 0:11:53.120 I think against the second game against the Bengals where 0:11:53.120 --> 0:11:55.560 I was like, oh, this perfect spot, second divisional game, 0:11:55.720 --> 0:11:58.200 and then they just got their brains beat in That 0:11:58.320 --> 0:12:00.520 happens obviously on occasion. If they go in here on 0:12:00.559 --> 0:12:02.520 Monday night the Browns and beat the crap out of 0:12:02.520 --> 0:12:04.840 the Steelers, I'm just I'm just gonna be totally floored 0:12:04.840 --> 0:12:06.600 by it. So give me a Steelers getting the three 0:12:06.600 --> 0:12:08.400 and a half. Go to your number two pick here, Boga. 0:12:08.520 --> 0:12:10.080 I'm gonna stay in the same game I just mentioned. 0:12:10.120 --> 0:12:12.600 I'm gonna take the over for the Rams and Ravens 0:12:12.600 --> 0:12:17.240 as well. Like you said, Lamar, looking GIMPI probably better 0:12:17.320 --> 0:12:19.600 for the over because I'd rather have a healthy Tyler 0:12:19.679 --> 0:12:22.800 Huntley in there than a fifty percent Lamar Jackson, which 0:12:22.840 --> 0:12:25.120 looks like it's going to trend towards that way. But 0:12:25.480 --> 0:12:28.120 like I said, the Rams are going to get most 0:12:28.160 --> 0:12:30.040 of this. I think the Rams score five touchdowns, so 0:12:30.040 --> 0:12:32.320 it's thirty five of this forty six and a half 0:12:32.480 --> 0:12:35.160 of the over here. So we're asking the Ravens to 0:12:35.160 --> 0:12:38.360 score twice two touchdowns, and I think they can do that, 0:12:38.880 --> 0:12:41.000 even if it's in garbage time. You know, Betting the 0:12:41.040 --> 0:12:46.120 over is frustrating sometimes because what you do is you 0:12:46.160 --> 0:12:47.679 look at that first half and you go, all right, well, 0:12:47.679 --> 0:12:50.800 they're not pacing. They're not pacing at all. You know, 0:12:50.880 --> 0:12:53.760 everybody does this. Everyone who the over goes this pace 0:12:53.880 --> 0:12:56.520 is not right. They're off the pace, you know. But 0:12:56.760 --> 0:12:58.880 also you got to remember more points scored in the 0:12:58.920 --> 0:13:02.640 second half, right, Defenses retired in offenses make adjustments. Right, 0:13:02.880 --> 0:13:06.200 So then in the third quarter you're like, okay, all right, okay, 0:13:06.440 --> 0:13:08.480 And in the fourth quarter you're getting closer and closer 0:13:08.520 --> 0:13:11.960 until you eventually hit it or you know you don't. 0:13:12.760 --> 0:13:14.560 But in the fourth quarter you have a pretty good idea. 0:13:14.640 --> 0:13:16.240 But I do I expect the Rams to pick the 0:13:16.320 --> 0:13:20.360 Ravens defensive part, and I think they get the majority 0:13:20.400 --> 0:13:23.280 of this over. And I think both these teams, you know, 0:13:23.600 --> 0:13:27.160 no one is great as far as their record on 0:13:27.360 --> 0:13:30.320 over unders. Right, the best record for over unders is 0:13:30.400 --> 0:13:32.959 nine and six this year Philly, the Jets, Minnesota all 0:13:33.040 --> 0:13:35.839 nine and six. The Rams are eight six and one, 0:13:35.880 --> 0:13:38.840 so they have the best record in playing second best 0:13:38.880 --> 0:13:42.400 record in playing towards the over this season. The Ravens 0:13:42.440 --> 0:13:45.079 are eight and seven. So you know, these are two 0:13:45.160 --> 0:13:49.160 teams that hit the over more often than most other 0:13:49.200 --> 0:13:52.880 teams in the NFL, so I think this lends towards 0:13:52.880 --> 0:13:55.040 that over as well. Plus just the bad state of 0:13:55.080 --> 0:13:58.360 this Ravens secondary. So giving the Rams over and the 0:13:58.480 --> 0:14:00.560 Rams and lay the points, I like bet on that 0:14:00.600 --> 0:14:03.640 game this week. Yeah, against the Ravens too. It's fun. 0:14:03.880 --> 0:14:06.880 Sure, why not just go Ravens every single time? This 0:14:07.080 --> 0:14:08.840 was one of my picks, Yes, I agree, I had it, 0:14:08.880 --> 0:14:11.200 which I was like, oh, interesting, because usually we're able 0:14:11.200 --> 0:14:13.640 to share picks beforehand, you and I weren't. You were like, oh, 0:14:13.679 --> 0:14:15.120 I'll just tell you what they are, and I'm like, 0:14:15.120 --> 0:14:17.800 I'm sure we don't overlap. And that was oddly enough, 0:14:18.080 --> 0:14:19.840 the one over under that I had. I agree with 0:14:19.840 --> 0:14:21.400 you completely in this one. I think the Rams are 0:14:21.440 --> 0:14:23.480 going to put up a ton of points. Again, talked 0:14:23.520 --> 0:14:26.760 about it when you talked about the spread, just the secondary. 0:14:26.800 --> 0:14:29.160 They're just going to be able to pass all over them. 0:14:29.600 --> 0:14:32.280 And I do think you're right. I don't expect Lamar 0:14:32.360 --> 0:14:33.920 Jackson to go at this point. I think when you're 0:14:33.960 --> 0:14:36.280 out there and you're really, really gimpy and then you're 0:14:36.280 --> 0:14:38.960 a DNP the next day like that just can't be good. 0:14:39.120 --> 0:14:40.960 And I think it's better for the Ravens offense then 0:14:41.120 --> 0:14:43.640 if you have a fully healthy Tyler Huntley with the 0:14:43.760 --> 0:14:47.200 entire week to prepare and really multiple weeks at this point, 0:14:47.400 --> 0:14:49.320 rather than a gimbie Lamar Jackson. So I agree with 0:14:49.360 --> 0:14:51.480 you over forty six and a half, I will adopt 0:14:51.720 --> 0:14:54.840 your play. My next pick, bog when is the Titans 0:14:54.920 --> 0:14:57.160 length three and a half to the Dolphins. This is 0:14:57.240 --> 0:15:00.640 much more about a fade of the Dolphins. Dolphins streak 0:15:00.840 --> 0:15:03.480 when you look at it, it's been really remarkable. It's 0:15:03.600 --> 0:15:06.600 just basically beaten the worst teams in the history of 0:15:06.640 --> 0:15:09.920 football with when you consider the quarterback play other than 0:15:10.080 --> 0:15:15.080 the real I mean in book would look almost ready 0:15:15.320 --> 0:15:18.160 for like a pee wee football game. But yeah, it 0:15:18.200 --> 0:15:20.000 was not. It was not close. Yes, I mean, you 0:15:20.040 --> 0:15:23.359 think about it. It's the Texans, the Jets twice, the Panthers, 0:15:23.640 --> 0:15:26.480 the Giants with Glennon, the Saints with Book, and the Ravens. 0:15:26.480 --> 0:15:28.880 That game on Thursday was very impressive. With the Ravens, 0:15:28.880 --> 0:15:31.200 I admit on that one. But you know, they're just 0:15:31.920 --> 0:15:34.240 I don't think they're a very good football team. Overall, 0:15:34.280 --> 0:15:38.120 They're fine. Pro Football Reference Bagman has a rating system 0:15:38.160 --> 0:15:41.720 which shows basically that the Dolphins are two points worse 0:15:41.800 --> 0:15:44.040 than the average football team. The Titans are two and 0:15:44.040 --> 0:15:46.000 a half points better than the average football team. So 0:15:46.120 --> 0:15:48.000 if you gave that credence and you put that together, 0:15:48.000 --> 0:15:50.640 it be four and a half points spread on a 0:15:50.680 --> 0:15:52.480 neutral site. This is a three and a half point 0:15:52.520 --> 0:15:56.280 spread in Tennessee. I think with AJ Brown back, And 0:15:56.320 --> 0:15:58.320 again we have to watch this because Julio Jones was 0:15:58.320 --> 0:16:01.400 placed on the COVID nineteen reserve list. If Brown gets 0:16:01.400 --> 0:16:04.560 put on it, I'm off this game obviously entirely. But 0:16:04.640 --> 0:16:07.080 obviously Julio make come back now that matters. You saw 0:16:07.120 --> 0:16:09.640 what AJ Brown can do and I get. 0:16:09.640 --> 0:16:13.400 Save how good he was a practice in oh, like whatever, 0:16:13.400 --> 0:16:15.800 what eight weeks or whatever, a practice and a half. 0:16:15.880 --> 0:16:16.160 That's it. 0:16:16.240 --> 0:16:17.720 I was like, I'm not starting to Ancient Brown. I'm 0:16:17.760 --> 0:16:19.840 not brave brave now Fryan tannels like like garbage the 0:16:19.880 --> 0:16:22.800 whole year. And then he just went crazy against the 0:16:22.840 --> 0:16:23.880 Niners on Thursday night. 0:16:24.360 --> 0:16:26.720 Now I mean without without Mosley, Like their secondary is 0:16:26.760 --> 0:16:29.240 terrible anyway, I get it. But I was completely with you. 0:16:29.280 --> 0:16:31.280 And again we do fantasy as well, and I ranked 0:16:31.320 --> 0:16:33.560 AJ Brown and when I was like sort of doing 0:16:33.560 --> 0:16:36.360 my projection, it was like, there's just no way he's 0:16:36.400 --> 0:16:38.640 going to get enough snaps at this point. But what 0:16:38.760 --> 0:16:41.040 was great about that bagman is at some point it 0:16:41.200 --> 0:16:43.200 was like it was like somebody getting on a heater 0:16:43.320 --> 0:16:45.080 with like a guy in craps getting on a heater 0:16:45.120 --> 0:16:45.480 with a roll. 0:16:45.600 --> 0:16:45.680 Right. 0:16:45.720 --> 0:16:47.960 You were just like all, I'm just going to you, 0:16:47.600 --> 0:16:50.040 going to you, and they knew it was going to Brown. 0:16:50.080 --> 0:16:51.800 There was nothing they could do about it. And that 0:16:52.040 --> 0:16:54.480 is how good he actually is. So I do think 0:16:54.520 --> 0:16:57.560 like regardless of the secondary, because the Dolphins secondary, which 0:16:57.560 --> 0:17:00.920 at one point was just they were the names are great, 0:17:01.000 --> 0:17:01.840 right obviously you know. 0:17:01.800 --> 0:17:03.960 They played musical chairs a lot in the beginning of 0:17:04.000 --> 0:17:07.600 the year with that secondary they went with Nick need 0:17:07.680 --> 0:17:09.479 Him for a while and it was just like Coleman 0:17:09.560 --> 0:17:12.679 and they bounce around, but they did finally Javon holland 0:17:12.680 --> 0:17:16.040 Brandon Johnes they settled on their safeties and they're both 0:17:16.080 --> 0:17:16.560 really good. 0:17:16.960 --> 0:17:19.560 But I still think that even though they are now 0:17:19.720 --> 0:17:21.879 finally sort of more back to what we kind of 0:17:21.880 --> 0:17:24.080 expected them to be in the preseason, it's still I 0:17:24.400 --> 0:17:27.439 just think that Brown being there, even without Derrick Henry 0:17:27.520 --> 0:17:29.359 and you know, Theonta Foreman has been fine. They couldn't 0:17:29.359 --> 0:17:31.440 get much going against s Francisco. I just think they're 0:17:31.440 --> 0:17:33.840 a much better team, and I think that I like, 0:17:33.920 --> 0:17:36.960 I don't love the hook like obviously, but I still 0:17:37.000 --> 0:17:38.959 think this is a game they're gonna win by a 0:17:39.000 --> 0:17:43.080 touchdown with Brown back. So and again I'm assuming Budgetree 0:17:43.160 --> 0:17:44.640 by the way, comes off the COVID list as well. 0:17:44.720 --> 0:17:47.159 So that's something that I'm just with the new protocols, 0:17:47.320 --> 0:17:49.240 but I will take them. Bogman much more of a 0:17:49.280 --> 0:17:51.440 fade of the Dolphins. You've got the Titans, by the way, 0:17:51.440 --> 0:17:54.600 with the ability potentially here to now seal the division. 0:17:54.840 --> 0:17:56.639 Win that one They're still in the air for the 0:17:56.720 --> 0:17:59.160