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Speaker 1: Welcome in everybody to betting pros. It's time to place

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Speaker 1: your bets. It is me Joey p joe Pisapia and

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Speaker 1: this is BP NFL. It's time to look ahead to

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Speaker 1: Monday night football with my rowdiest friend Scott Bogman and Boggs.

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Speaker 1: I gotta tell you, if you listen closely right now,

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Speaker 1: you can hear it. You hear it. Listen, that's the

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Speaker 1: shutting of the window of the Buffalo Bills dominance in

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Speaker 1: the AFC East. To hear it, he listened real close,

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Speaker 1: because that's what happened Thursday night. It was the Mills

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Speaker 1: mafia going after it, not so much the Bills mafia.

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Speaker 1: Bog's pretty good night though. Three and two from there,

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Speaker 1: so feeling good. I know you hate Thursday night, so

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Speaker 1: that's a good feeling. That Thursday night was good. I

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Speaker 1: think it bodes well for our Monday night contest.

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Speaker 2: Here. Good, good Thursday night game, so we're back on that,

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Speaker 2: which is nice, but had some points, even some points

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Speaker 2: before the half. Was really nice to see three and two,

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Speaker 2: so we're not gonna complain about that. We're gonna move

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Speaker 2: on to Monday with a smile.

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Speaker 1: That's right. That's right. And remember if we want to

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Speaker 1: put a smile on all of your faces too by

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Speaker 1: giving you free stuff this holiday season. And we've got

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Speaker 1: a Kirn Williams Autographs helmet that's going out to one

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Speaker 1: complete the form there and either download the Betting Pros

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Speaker 1: app leaver review of the Betting Pros podcast, or subscribe

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Speaker 1: to our social media channels at Betting Pros on ax

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Speaker 1: more actions you complete, the more entries you'll receive, and

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Speaker 1: we'll be announcing the winner right here on the channel.

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Speaker 1: So make sure you turn on those notifications so you

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Speaker 1: can never miss a piece of content and we can

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Speaker 1: let you know if you're the winner of this month's giveaway.

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Speaker 1: The Kyne williams Helmet. Let's take a look at the

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Speaker 1: line here for Monday Night. The Carolina Panthers six and five,

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Speaker 1: the San Francisco forty nine Ers seven and four. Everybody

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Speaker 1: has been hurt for the forty nine ers most of

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Speaker 1: the season, but you know you do have George kittleback,

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Speaker 1: you got Perdie back, you got Piersoll back. The last

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Speaker 1: couple weeks, unfortunately the defense falling apart. You're getting plus

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Speaker 1: seven on the Carolina Panthers. You're getting minus seven here

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Speaker 1: on San fram forty nine and a half for the over,

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Speaker 1: forty nine and a half for the under, plus three

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Speaker 1: oh five on the money line for the Carolina Panthers. Upset.

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Speaker 1: I gotta tell you, Bogs, I don't love this game,

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Speaker 1: don't have a great feeling about it. But my lean

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Speaker 1: is San Francisco minus seven, just because they have so

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Speaker 1: many weapons and sometimes the Panthers are for a little

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Speaker 1: jeckl and hide. Right, they have a game like they

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Speaker 1: did last week from Bryce Young's throwing four point fifty,

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Speaker 1: and then the week after that they'll go on the

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Speaker 1: road to San Francisco in a matchup where Santa fran

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Speaker 1: you know, just saw you know, we just wat Chacoby Presett,

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Speaker 1: you know, complete four hundred and seventy passes against them.

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Speaker 2: If you want the peists of examples, showy. They were

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Speaker 2: at home against the Bills, they lose forty nine. Then

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Speaker 2: they go on the road to the Packers and win

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Speaker 2: sixteen thirteen. So yeah, the Panthers are are team to

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Speaker 2: figure out.

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Speaker 1: I'm just gonna I'm gonna say. I'm gonna say. Look,

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Speaker 1: it's Monday night, it's CMC, it's personnel getting healthy, brock

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Speaker 1: Purty there, you know, normal quarterback being under center. It's like,

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Speaker 1: this is the game. Where're the forty nine ers. Look,

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Speaker 1: you get to eight wins here, you got to keep

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Speaker 1: pace a little bit with some of those other teams

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Speaker 1: there because you know, see I's not going anywhere and

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Speaker 1: the Rams aren't go anywhere. So that's my take on

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Speaker 1: this game. But you see it differently. You think that

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Speaker 1: possibly Carolina can cover this.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I'll tell you what. I don't really like the side.

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Speaker 2: I like the over right. I think that the Niners

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Speaker 2: defense is the banged up side. Like you mentioned, the

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Speaker 2: offense is getting healthier. They've been using CMC a little

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Speaker 2: bit less in recent weeks. And George Kittle is getting

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Speaker 2: healthy with brock Party back. The last two games, he's

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Speaker 2: looked great. Ricky Pierce Saw had a bad game in

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Speaker 2: his first game back. Now he's more healthy, but he

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Speaker 2: had a lot of routes and snaps in that game

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Speaker 2: and he stayed healthy, so I expect more from him

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Speaker 2: as well. So I like the over in this game

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Speaker 2: more than I like aside. I think in the NFL

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Speaker 2: at this point, if I've seen a team be good

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Speaker 2: and bad, if you're giving me over a touchdown, I'm

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Speaker 2: going to take the points. I think that's kind of

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Speaker 2: where I boiled down to it on this game. So

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Speaker 2: I'll take the Panthers kind of like I took the

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Speaker 2: Texans at home on Thursday. I just thought that was

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Speaker 2: a good matchup for them. But I didn't have a

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Speaker 2: good feel on that one. I don't have a great

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Speaker 2: feel on this one either, but I do like the over.

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Speaker 2: So spoiler alert, we're gonna be going with some overs here.

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Speaker 1: Rico Dawdle is the first guy we're going to talk

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Speaker 1: about in this one and look, believe it or not,

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Speaker 1: in Fantasy, Rico Dowdell, despite not doing anything really for

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Speaker 1: the first five weeks of the season, is RB ten.

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Speaker 1: He's a top ten RB in Fantasy if you can

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Speaker 1: believe it. He's had some giant output games. Then Chew

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Speaker 1: Barber came back, and now, of course Rico Dawdell kind

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Speaker 1: of solidified himself as the lead guy. So what does

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Speaker 1: it look like for him? How do we approach him

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Speaker 1: on this Monday Night contest?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean it has been all Rico And this

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Speaker 2: is what welse keeps hitting me with this because I

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Speaker 2: sat it a couple weeks ago and I'm still gonna

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Speaker 2: stand by it. I think in terms of skill, I

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Speaker 2: think the Rico and Chewbar are pretty close, but Tuba

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Speaker 2: got hurt. I don't think Tuba is one hundred percent,

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Speaker 2: And I think en Rico's hot. That's why we're going

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Speaker 2: to Rico more. And he's had eighteen or more carries

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Speaker 2: and five of seven starts so far, he's passed this

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Speaker 2: total seventy four and a half rushing yards in four

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Speaker 2: of seven games. And the best run defenders for the

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Speaker 2: Niners are down. Fred Warner has been down for a

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Speaker 2: few weeks now. His backup Tatum Bethune, the third best

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Speaker 2: run defender in terms of grade, also likely down for

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Speaker 2: this game, looking doubtful right now. So I just think

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Speaker 2: that with the way you attack the Niners, I honestly,

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Speaker 2: their defense is so banged up you can do it

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Speaker 2: any way you want right now. But I think Rico,

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Speaker 2: I think the thing to do with the Niners getting

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Speaker 2: more healthy on offense, you want to hold the rock

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Speaker 2: as much as you can.

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Speaker 1: I didn't.

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Speaker 2: I wanted rushing attempts when I went to Rico. My

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Speaker 2: first thought was rushing attempts. Rushing attempts eighteen and a half.

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Speaker 2: And we looked a couple weeks ago the losing side

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Speaker 2: of this game and their favorite. They're getting seven and

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Speaker 2: a half points here. It's the running back. I think

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Speaker 2: only one or two games the running back past eighteen carries,

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Speaker 2: and that the last one to do it was Aston

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Speaker 2: genty when they lost ten to seven to Denver. So

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Speaker 2: I don't think this game plays like that. But I

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Speaker 2: think you want to run the ball as much as

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Speaker 2: you can if you're the Panthers before you get down

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Speaker 2: to the Niners, and control the clock a little bit.

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Speaker 2: So I think decent amount of carries for him, and

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Speaker 2: I think he breaks one big one because the tackling

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Speaker 2: has been rough recently for the Niners. So give me,

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Speaker 2: give me the over seventy four and a half for

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Speaker 2: Tuba here, all.

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Speaker 1: Right, Bog's look at the end of October. I know

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Speaker 1: we were screaming from the rooftops about the CMC workload

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Speaker 1: and like, what are we doing here? It's an astronomical

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Speaker 1: pace for a guy with the injury history that he has.

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Speaker 1: And I can only assume Kyle Shanahan's been watching the shows, right,

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Speaker 1: because all of a sudden last couple of weeks, Brian

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Speaker 1: Robinson Junior has been working a little bit more so.

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Speaker 1: Can we wager on that after this trend of Brian

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Speaker 1: Robinson's uptick and work.

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Speaker 2: I think, so they're at home, they're projected to win

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Speaker 2: by more than a touchdown, right, So I think we're

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Speaker 2: gonna see some b rob here. And I think to

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Speaker 2: what you said about how we're so frustrating, it's still

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Speaker 2: CMC has way more carries than anybody else. JT is

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Speaker 2: still number two to him by I think like fifty

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Speaker 2: touches or something, forty or fifty touches. It's a lot

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Speaker 2: right now. But what I think here is that you

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Speaker 2: had nobody else healthy, even the quarterback right Party was down,

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Speaker 2: Kittle was down, Pearce All was down. Ayuk still has

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Speaker 2: not come back, right, So you were kind of forced

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Speaker 2: to give the ball to see him see more than

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Speaker 2: you needed to. But now everybody's coming back outside of Ayu.

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Speaker 2: So we saw Brian Robinson's highest nap percentage last week,

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Speaker 2: and he's had eight carries or more in the last

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Speaker 2: two games. In the last couple of games, eight for

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Speaker 2: forty one, eight for twenty three, five for fifty three,

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Speaker 2: and nine for thirty six. In the game they lost,

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Speaker 2: he can't get any carries. But you know for zero

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Speaker 2: there but twenty three and a half is a low number.

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Speaker 2: I feel like if he's going to get about eight

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Speaker 2: carries again, which I think is a pretty decent margin,

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Speaker 2: I think he'll sail past twenty three yards.

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Speaker 1: Okay, so we'll see if Ryan Robinson can sail past

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Speaker 1: twenty three yards. Let's talk about Bryce Young. I mentioned earlier,

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Speaker 1: huge output for him last week, obviously against the Atlanta Falcons.

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Speaker 1: So Bryce Young the passing touchdowns, it's one and a

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Speaker 1: half the overs plus money at plus one twenty. That

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Speaker 1: is tempting because we saw what San Fran wasn't able

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Speaker 1: to do, and that was cover anybody last week. So

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Speaker 1: the secondary has had all kinds of problems that look,

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Speaker 1: I know, you know, sometimes we see something like that

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Speaker 1: and then the next week can get corrected. I just

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Speaker 1: don't know from the old perspective of that's something the

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Speaker 1: forty nine ers are really capable of doing. That defense

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Speaker 1: has been just obliterated by injuries this year. So you

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Speaker 1: want to take the over here and Bryce Young throw

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Speaker 1: him for some touchdowns.

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Speaker 2: I love the number. I love the juice of getting

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Speaker 2: plus one twenty here. I just think that that is

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Speaker 2: a great number to bet. One and a half is

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Speaker 2: not crazy. The Niners have allowed twenty one passing touchdowns

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Speaker 2: to only eight rushing touchdowns and the Panthers have scored

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Speaker 2: fifteen to only scoring seven. So Bryce Young has hit

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Speaker 2: this in four of nine, so a little less than

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Speaker 2: fifty percent. But he is coming off his best offensive

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Speaker 2: performance as a pro. So I just think that we

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Speaker 2: ride that momentum. And you said it. You know, the

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Speaker 2: pass rush has been bad for the Niners. Nick Bosa

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Speaker 2: done for the year, Michael Williams done for the year.

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Speaker 2: These guys are on ir so they haven't had a

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Speaker 2: lot of a pass rush recently. Lots of injuries, you know,

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Speaker 2: to the linebacking corps as well, and the secondary was

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Speaker 2: the weakness coming in. So yeah, I just think that

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Speaker 2: once we get down there, Bryce Young can throw too.

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Speaker 2: Ted Ro McMillan's such a weapon, and I think he

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Speaker 2: could get two. Like I said, I think this game

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Speaker 2: goes over. So if we get two touchdowns from the Panthers,

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Speaker 2: I would expect both of them to be passing. And

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Speaker 2: if we get three, I'm pretty for sure we're gonna

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Speaker 2: get passing from Bryce Young.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So Bryce Young in for a possible good day

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Speaker 1: there let's talk about Juan Jennings, another guy that we've

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Speaker 1: been waiting for. Now we know Jennings and Perty have

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Speaker 1: a good rapport. The number is forty six and a

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Speaker 1: half on the receiving yard side. Do we taking an

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Speaker 1: over here again? I know you teased all the overs bogs,

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Speaker 1: So is it just over city.

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Speaker 2: And we're going over over overboard here? I mean, look,

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Speaker 2: brock Purty, looking at projections, is projected to have the

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Speaker 2: third most passing yards this week. So he's projected over

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Speaker 2: two seventy. So there's gonna be some guys catching some footballs.

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Speaker 2: If that is the case, the projections are correct and

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Speaker 2: number one's versus Carolina have hit. This number is only

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Speaker 2: forty six and a half yards. So London last week

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Speaker 2: one hundred nineteen o lave one hundred and four dobbs

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Speaker 2: ninety one. The last time that a number one wide

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Speaker 2: out the guy? Would you know that was number one

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Speaker 2: for that team? I mean we can kind of throw

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Speaker 2: Ty Johnson in question against the Jets, but he still

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Speaker 2: passes number with three catches, he had sixty yards. But

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Speaker 2: these Number one been peppered pickings for Cede Lamb when

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Speaker 2: he was hurt eleven targets nine to one sixty eight,

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Speaker 2: Wattle six for one, ten Dig six for one oh one,

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Speaker 2: even when London had his bad game, five for fifty five.

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Speaker 1: Right.

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Speaker 2: The last two guys that were number ones and didn't

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Speaker 2: hit this were weeks one and two against the Niners,

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Speaker 2: and that was Brian Thomas Junior. He had seven targets,

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Speaker 2: only one catch, and then Harrison had Marvin Harrison Junior

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Speaker 2: had five targets, only two catches for twenty seven and

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Speaker 2: eleven yards. Every single other week the number one has

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Speaker 2: passed this and he is the number one wide out,

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Speaker 2: you know, the number one target probably still Kittle, but

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Speaker 2: Jennings is your number one wide receiver here.

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Speaker 1: Okay, So what does that mean for George Kittle, Because

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Speaker 1: George Kittle might say, excuse me, my number is higher.

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Speaker 1: It's fifty three and a half. I'm the number one

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Speaker 1: target guy around these parts.

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Speaker 2: Yeah. In the last two weeks with Perty healthy, he's

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Speaker 2: had six for six targets, six catches sixty seven yards

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Speaker 2: and two scores against Arizona and nine nine targets, nine

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Speaker 2: catches eighty four yards and a touchdown against the Rams.

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Speaker 2: That Panthers are twenty six and receiving yards allowed to

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Speaker 2: tight ends per game, allowing sixty five point three. Kittle's

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Speaker 2: gonna get lots of targets, lots catches in this game.

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Speaker 2: I think if I had to pick one, I would

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Speaker 2: probably pick Kittle. But I like both of these, all.

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Speaker 1: Right, So Bogs is in on those. And remember, if

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Speaker 1: you want to get in on more props, you go

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Speaker 1: to the prop bet sheet sheet. It's free and fun,

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Speaker 1: and the best way to do it is to go

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Speaker 1: to download the Betting Pros app or go to betting

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Speaker 1: pros dot com slash props. Again, you're gonna see the projections,

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Speaker 1: you're gonna see the lines, and you're gonna see the

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Speaker 1: overs and the unders. It's very simple. It's the way

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Speaker 1: to make it work here. So again, the prop bet

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Speaker 1: cheat sheet one of the many tools that are really

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Speaker 1: useful for you over on Betting Pros. All right, Bogs,

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Speaker 1: I got a new plan here because I need to

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Speaker 1: shake the dust off. So let's put together what you

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Speaker 1: think are the best bets here potentially for the same game,

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Speaker 1: partly in this game, like what are the two things

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Speaker 1: that you love the most from the prop side, And

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Speaker 1: I'll see if I can get there and maybe throw

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Speaker 1: in one of my own here, where are you at? Here?

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Speaker 1: What my favorite number? One bets?

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Speaker 2: Here my favorite props? Let's go George Kittle over fifty

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Speaker 2: three and a half.

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Speaker 1: I'm with that one too.

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Speaker 2: It's probably ticking up a little bit.

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Speaker 1: Uh, and then.

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Speaker 2: It's tough for me. I think I like this. Brian

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Speaker 2: Robinson over Okay.

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Speaker 1: So we go with the little Brian Robinson number.

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Speaker 2: I just think, you know, with in recent weeks, it's

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Speaker 2: been just way fewer carries for Christian McCaffrey. And I

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Speaker 2: think that is because everybody else is healthy and he

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Speaker 2: doesn't have to do this workload. And I think I

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Speaker 2: think this is Shanahan saying, I know I'm overworking him early.

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Speaker 2: We're going to ratchet him back before the playoffs. I

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Speaker 2: think that's the plan. So if they if they get

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Speaker 2: up by more than a touchdown in this game, at

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Speaker 2: any point, I think you were guaranteed to see Brian Robinson.

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Speaker 1: So okay, So we're gonna put that together right here,

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Speaker 1: A love show. George Kittle over fifty three and a

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Speaker 1: half receiving yards, Brian Robinson over twenty three and a

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Speaker 1: half rushing yards, And I'm gonna throw in forty nine

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Speaker 1: ers on the money line there just for s's and

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Speaker 1: g's because I still think they can win this game.

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Speaker 1: That's heavily juiced, but I just want to throw in

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Speaker 1: a little bit more. When you have those three selections,

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Speaker 1: you're getting to plus two ninety one. That's three to

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Speaker 1: one almost for those three bets to hit. So again

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Speaker 1: that's the SG Joey p. So I'm trying to get

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Speaker 1: all the help from my friends because you know, I

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Speaker 1: thought Josh Allen was on track, and I thought they

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Speaker 1: could figure things out against the Texans defense, and they

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Speaker 1: could not. Texans defense, man, especially in that building, just

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Speaker 1: ferocious bogs. You and I love defense. So I remember

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Speaker 1: when we were doing the live playoff game last year.

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Speaker 1: You actually wasn't last year. Was this year? Last season.

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Speaker 1: It was all the way back in January against the Chargers,

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Speaker 1: right and we were watching that game and we were

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Speaker 1: just like, man, this Texans defense has come to play

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Speaker 1: against the Chargers and Wills b s.

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Speaker 2: You know, I'll Shay Hear had that tip for a

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Speaker 2: pick as well. That dude is good. When he's not

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Speaker 2: cheap shot people, he's really good.

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Speaker 1: And he's not a complete jerky bit of football. But yeah,

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Speaker 1: so all right, let's pick some touchdowns here. I'm going

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Speaker 1: with Tedoro McMillan plus one forty five. I like the number,

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Speaker 1: of the trend of the volume. Look, he hasn't a

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Speaker 1: lot of touchdowns this year, so I'm hoping, you know,

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Speaker 1: he had that big two touchdown game against the Cowboys

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Speaker 1: earlier in the year, and now, you know, coming off

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Speaker 1: a game against Atlanta, let's hope that things are trend

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Speaker 1: to get the right direction for him down the stretch.

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Speaker 1: So I'm gonna go with Teed McMillan for plus one

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Speaker 1: forty five. And of course you're going with George Kittle,

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Speaker 1: which I think is a good one.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean, he scored in five of six. And

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Speaker 2: by the way, I was so mad when I saw

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Speaker 2: that you had Teed McMillan. Good for me first because

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Speaker 2: I saw him, I'm like, easy, because I had just

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Speaker 2: finished all the rest of my stuff. I'm like, easy,

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Speaker 2: I can do this. I can go to bed teen

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Speaker 2: McMillon plus one fifty. Great, And I look at him,

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Speaker 2: Joe coming, So I switched to I switched to Kittle.

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Speaker 2: But again, Kittle touchdowns in five of six games played

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Speaker 2: this season, so I think that's a pretty good one

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Speaker 2: as well.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, it's good to have him back. So if forty

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Speaker 1: Niners can get healthy, maybe they can make a real

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Speaker 1: run at this thing. We shall see, and of course

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Speaker 1: we'll see you next week right here on the Betting

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Speaker 1: Pros channel. Subscribe, don't go anywhere. We'll be right back

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Speaker 1: with more amazing content guests weeks right Black Friday Games.

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Speaker 1: We also got Thanksgiving Special. It's like South Park Thanksgiving Special.

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00:17:11,040 --> 00:17:13,480
Speaker 1: We got the Black Friday Special. All the specials and

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Speaker 1: all the shows have plenty of tegrity. You never have

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00:17:16,560 --> 00:17:19,720
Speaker 1: to worry, you never have to wonder. You got plenty

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Speaker 1: of integrity to go around here in these parts. That's

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Speaker 1: how we get through all these shows. That'll do it

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Speaker 1: for us. But the story of the game goes on

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Speaker 1: for Scott Bog and I'm Joey p. We'll see you

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Speaker 1: next time.

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Speaker 3: Kids. Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros podcast. If

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