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Speaker 1: Good luck with the most beautiful game. Do us proud

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Speaker 1: read enough? There were running again?

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Speaker 2: So smoothe so sweet slid.

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Speaker 1: Sixteen just glorious execution.

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Speaker 2: Guys, all I'm looking for is sixty percent effort, four

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Speaker 2: thousand percent of the time.

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Speaker 3: How shot with that shop with mind and buddy, and

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Speaker 3: that's why you see your beautiful tiers.

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Speaker 2: Look at his movements the most.

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Speaker 1: Dangerous amount of the planet.

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Speaker 4: Nobody picks them.

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Speaker 1: Shut up, I'm trying.

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Speaker 2: The one left too, the wide eyed.

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Speaker 3: Drilled fibus how old earth pick that happens?

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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, welcome back to Wondergo, the soccer betting podcast

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Speaker 1: from the Action Network. My name is Michael lebuff and

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Speaker 1: joining me for this episode and all the Euro twenty

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Speaker 1: twenty four episodes coming our way. It's Bj Cunningham and

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Speaker 1: a new voice on the pod for the Euros, Sam Ingram,

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Speaker 1: Coming our way bea Woking in England by way of Plymouth. Sam.

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Speaker 1: Welcome to Wondergoal. We're excited to have you. Can you

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Speaker 1: introduce yourselves to our listeners and what you're into, who

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Speaker 1: you root for, all that stuff, and then we'll get

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Speaker 1: right into our Euro twenty twenty four futures preview.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, hello everyone, and thank you very much for having

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Speaker 3: me very much excited for the summer and the tournament ahead.

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Speaker 3: I am the football editor at a platform called Betting Expert,

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Speaker 3: and I've been betting in a full time capacity for

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Speaker 3: a number of years now, So this is the first

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Speaker 3: Euros actually that I won't be attending in quite a

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Speaker 3: long time in person. But I've obviously got a decent agent.

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Speaker 3: It was somehow locked in a temporary loan deal to

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Speaker 3: Action Network with no obligation to buy, so you guys

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Speaker 3: can have a real look at me over the summer. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: Michael mentioned now, I'm originally from Plymouth, so I'm a

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Speaker 3: Plymouth Fargo fan of the Championship of course in England.

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Speaker 3: Just got Wayne Brooney and as head coach, so I'm

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Speaker 3: not too sure our next season is gonna go. But yeah, overall,

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Speaker 3: just happy to be brilliant and keen to get stuck

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Speaker 3: into some bets.

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Speaker 1: All right, Yeah, let's do that. Let's get right into it.

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Speaker 1: So this is your twenty twenty four we're gonna look at.

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Speaker 1: We'll go group by group, give out a bunch of futures.

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Speaker 1: In each group. We're gonna start there with our favorite outrights,

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Speaker 1: it's a twenty four team tournament. It's it's a little convoluted.

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Speaker 1: This is the third iteration of this version of it,

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Speaker 1: where we have twenty four teams split into six groups

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Speaker 1: of four, and then you get the top two teams

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Speaker 1: in each of those group, plus the four best third

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Speaker 1: place teams go into the round of sixteen, so only

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Speaker 1: eight teams get eliminated. With that all in mind, let's

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Speaker 1: just run real quick through the outright odds. England is

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Speaker 1: your betting favorite at the moment. They are three to one,

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Speaker 1: France right behind them at four to one, Germany plus

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Speaker 1: five fifty. Portugal and Spain are both eight to one.

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Speaker 1: These odds, of course, are from our friends over at

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Speaker 1: bet three sixty five. Italy's next up. They are the

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Speaker 1: defending champions. They're fourteen to one. Belgium and the Netherlands

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Speaker 1: are at sixteen. Then we got a big jump to Croatia,

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Speaker 1: denmarkt forty, Turkey is fifty to one, Switzerland coming in

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Speaker 1: at sixty six to one, Serbia, Austria, Hungary at eighty

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Speaker 1: to one, Scotland, Ukraine at one hundred to one, Czech

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Speaker 1: Republic one hundred and fifty to one, so is Poland,

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Speaker 1: Romania two hundred to one, Slovenia to fifty to one,

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Speaker 1: and then we got the true, true, true, true outsiders Albania,

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Speaker 1: Georgia and Slovakia are all five hundred to one r BJ.

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Speaker 1: Right now, if you're looking at this board, just the

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Speaker 1: outright board, what is the what is your favorite bet

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Speaker 1: that you can pluck from here?

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Speaker 2: Well, Michael, these type of international tournaments, you can qualify

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Speaker 2: this for the World Cup or even the Euros. Typically

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Speaker 2: the favorites win these. You know, we've had a couple instances.

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Speaker 2: You know, Italy was eleven to one at the last Euros. Obviously,

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Speaker 2: the big story is Greece in two thousand and four

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Speaker 2: with their magical run as a huge long shot. So

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Speaker 2: you typically want to have somebody around the top of

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Speaker 2: the board here, and the team that I really like

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Speaker 2: is Germany at plus five fifty year tournament hosts. So

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Speaker 2: Germany's had two international tournaments, the last Euros and the

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Speaker 2: World Cup that have not gone well. Let's just say

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Speaker 2: that it's been a complete disaster from their vantage point.

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Speaker 2: They got knocked out in the round of sixteen by England,

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Speaker 2: and if you remember that last Euros, there was a

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Speaker 2: moment where they were going home from that group of

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Speaker 2: death where they needed to score against Hungary. Then at

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Speaker 2: the last World Cup they obviously got knocked out at

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Speaker 2: the group stage. But a lot has changed. They are

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Speaker 2: now bringing in Ulian Nagelsman, who for me is the

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Speaker 2: best tactical manager in this entire tournament. He was incredibly

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Speaker 2: successful at Byron. The reason he got sacked was more

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Speaker 2: having to do with disagreements with the board and than

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Speaker 2: his actual managerial skills. What I love about him is

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Speaker 2: he has the ability to adapt for a tournament like this.

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Speaker 2: He'll use so many different build up structures, from a

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Speaker 2: two to three to a three to two to a

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Speaker 2: three to one six, depending on whoever the opponent is.

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Speaker 2: They have unbelievable attacking players from Musiala so Florian Vertz

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Speaker 2: who's the Bundesliga player of the year, Ti Havertz who's

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Speaker 2: outstanding at playing the false nine role and dropping deep

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Speaker 2: and build up Leroy Sane who's got electric pace, Gundagan

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Speaker 2: who's an incredible box crasher. They have everything in terms

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Speaker 2: of attack, But what's really improved from Germany as opposed

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Speaker 2: to tournament's pass is their defense. As rock solid because noggles Men,

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Speaker 2: unlike Kanzie Flick, is not the type of manager that's

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Speaker 2: just gonna all out press and play a high line

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Speaker 2: and leave his defense really exposed through the few. You know, obviously,

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Speaker 2: Germany didn't go through the qualifying process, so they only

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Speaker 2: played They've played six friendlies under Noglesmen, the last two

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Speaker 2: of them against the Netherlands in France. In those two matches,

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Speaker 2: they were playing more of a four four two mid

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Speaker 2: block or a four to two four, which is much

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Speaker 2: better for a tournament like this. And what that does

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Speaker 2: also is if they decide to press from that, Rudiger

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Speaker 2: and Jonathan tom Is an incredible center back pairing because

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Speaker 2: they're so good not only from building out of the back,

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Speaker 2: from winning duels, but winning aerial duels. They've gone over

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Speaker 2: sixty eight percent of their aerial duels over the last

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Speaker 2: few seasons at the club level. So Germany has absolutely everything.

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Speaker 2: They have the manager, they have a defense, they have

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Speaker 2: an offense, they have a great tactical plan, but they

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Speaker 2: also have the path. I mean, when you're betting outrights,

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Speaker 2: you have to look at what's the most likely path

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Speaker 2: for all these all of these teams. If England and

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Speaker 2: France both win their groups, which they should because they're

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Speaker 2: pretty heavy favorites, they are going to be on the

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Speaker 2: same side of the bracket. Germany wins their group, they're

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Speaker 2: going to be alone to the top half of the

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Speaker 2: bracket with the most likely matchup against Spain in the quarterfinals,

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Speaker 2: who they outplayed at the World Cup. And then at

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Speaker 2: worst they're going to face Portugal, who will get to

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Speaker 2: later in this program that I'm pretty out on, and

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Speaker 2: I think that potentially they could go home early. So

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Speaker 2: the path for Germany is outstanding. And we've seen also

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Speaker 2: in January and for a couple other of these international tournaments,

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Speaker 2: both the Asian Cup and the Cup Nations, both the

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Speaker 2: host nations won. Homefield advantage is huge in these type

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Speaker 2: of tournaments. So with home field advantage, path the manager

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Speaker 2: and having all of the talent, now other knight as

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Speaker 2: talented as France or England, but having all of those,

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Speaker 2: I think they should be closer to four to one,

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Speaker 2: closer to France in England as being a three way

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Speaker 2: tie for favorites. So I really like Germany at plus

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Speaker 2: five fifty and same.

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Speaker 1: I know you're in agreement with BJ So what do

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Speaker 1: you want to add on to there about why you

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Speaker 1: like Germany here at this price?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I'll promise I've not just copied BJ.

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Speaker 2: We should go on to you first, honestly, Yeah, could have.

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Speaker 3: No, I do fancy Germany at plus five point fifty.

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Speaker 3: There's not really much I can add on start. I

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Speaker 3: think BJ's covered most of it, but yeah, just to

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Speaker 3: follow on from being at home really shouldn't be overlooked.

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Speaker 4: So that bet an expert.

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Speaker 3: We've produced a betting guide for the summer and I

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Speaker 3: was looking at that before coming on, and that states

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Speaker 3: that home field advantage in the Euros across the entire

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Speaker 3: history of the European Championships has been worth a net

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Speaker 3: gain of plus zero point four to five go difference

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Speaker 3: per match to the hosts. So that's interesting and that's

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Speaker 3: worth noting down. And I suppose maybe a reason to

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Speaker 3: not back, if you're looking for a reason to not

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Speaker 3: back Germany, it's probably due to their lack of competitive

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Speaker 3: fixture since the World Cup, so they haven't played any

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Speaker 3: as hosts of the Euros, meaning their last competitive fixture

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Speaker 3: was against Costa Rica in the World Cup, a competition

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Speaker 3: in which they were very very poor. But BJ also

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Speaker 3: mentioned that in March they played France beat them to nil,

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Speaker 3: Netherlands beat them too one. So I suppose on the

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Speaker 3: other side of it, you could argue that their friendlies

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Speaker 3: have been of a standard that is maybe better than

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Speaker 3: some of the European Championship qualifying routes. So yeah, I

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Speaker 3: do like them. I was impressed, really impressed against France.

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Speaker 3: Pg's gone through pretty much all of the team, but

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Speaker 3: they've got Tony Cruise in midfield. This is going to

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Speaker 3: be his last tournament, so maybe the squad's going to

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Speaker 3: get want to get one over the line for their

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Speaker 3: departing teammate, this will be his last tournament in professional football. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: Jonathan tar and Rudiga in front of Manual Noya, that is,

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Speaker 3: that's a solid spine. And you've got Nicholas ful Krug

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Speaker 3: as well up top, who I think he might be

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Speaker 3: playing as a deputy to Kai Habertz. But that's a

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Speaker 3: really handy plan be option that's really effective if maybe

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Speaker 3: you're in the knockout stages and you're looking for a

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Speaker 3: goal late on, you need to launch balls into a box.

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Speaker 4: So yeah, for all of.

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Speaker 3: Those reasons and everything that BJ touched on at Germany

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Speaker 3: at plus five fifty yep, and we.

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Speaker 1: Will preach patients that Obviously Sam Sam comes from England,

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Speaker 1: so he's used to decimal ads, but already right off

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Speaker 1: the bat doing really good job with the American money

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Speaker 1: line system. I'm going to take a shot on the

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Speaker 1: Netherlands at sixteen to one, and it comes down to

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Speaker 1: the path more than anything, likely going to finish second

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Speaker 1: in Group D, and that could end up being the

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Speaker 1: best spot for anybody finishing second in second place right

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Speaker 1: like you look at their path would likely you're playing

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Speaker 1: maybe like a That Group E is so soft, is

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Speaker 1: what I'm saying right Wishing behind Belgium, I don't know

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Speaker 1: what is going to be Romania, whoever it's gonna whoever's

200
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Speaker 1: gonna finish behind Belgium in that group, it's going to

201
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Speaker 1: be easy. So I think that the Netherlands path is there.

202
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Speaker 1: I liked what I saw out of them in the

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Speaker 1: World Cup. I know we're getting a change of manager

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Speaker 1: here to former Everard and Buss Ronald Cooman, but this

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Speaker 1: team has the upside. They've obviously got a ton of

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Speaker 1: attacking talent. The center of the defense should be fine,

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Speaker 1: So it's more about the path than anything else. With

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Speaker 1: the Dutch for me, it's sixteen to one. I think

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Speaker 1: the number is probably just a shade too long, and

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Speaker 1: there's a couple teams I think in that range you

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Speaker 1: can make an argument for, and if you look at

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Speaker 1: the path for them versus Belgium or even Italy, I

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Speaker 1: would much rather take a stroll with the Dutch, with

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Speaker 1: the Orange as my favorite outright. So I do think

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Speaker 1: that if I were to pick a had to pick

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Speaker 1: a favorite, I would go with you guys on Germany.

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Speaker 1: It does seem like that this is all setting up

218
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Speaker 1: pretty pretty nicely for them coming out of Group A,

219
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Speaker 1: which is not going to be all that competitive, and

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Speaker 1: then from as BJ said, the path opens up for

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Speaker 1: them as well. All right, let's go group by group. Now,

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Speaker 1: let's start obviously with Group A. You guys made your

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Speaker 1: thoughts pretty clear. In Germany. They are minus three hundred

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Speaker 1: odds on to win Group A. They're joined by Scotland,

225
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Speaker 1: Hungary and the Swiss. Switzerland is a second favorite plus

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Speaker 1: five fifty to win the group. Scott Hungary at eight

227
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Speaker 1: to one they are pretty fancied for like as a

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Speaker 1: sleeper team, and at Scotland at eleven to one BJ.

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Speaker 1: What do you have here for Group A?

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Speaker 2: Yeah, so I have two bets. Number one is going

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Speaker 2: to be a dual forecast, which meaning you can either finish,

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Speaker 2: can happen first or second? Germany and Switzerland plus one

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Speaker 2: twenty five. I won't going to Germany after we already

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Speaker 2: talked about that. But Switzerland is a team I really like,

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Speaker 2: you know, I think that people have maybe just I

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Speaker 2: don't know if they've gotten tired of them or the

237
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Speaker 2: market's gotten a little tired of them, because you can

238
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Speaker 2: essentially just like copy and paste their roster from previous

239
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Speaker 2: eros the World Cup to now right like it's the

240
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Speaker 2: same core. It's still granted Shaka a Kanji shar even

241
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Speaker 2: Shakiri's even though he's playing an MLS, is going to

242
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Speaker 2: play on the right, Reuben Vargas on the left. There's

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Speaker 2: a question markob who's actually going to be up top.

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Speaker 2: But if you go through Switzerland numbers and qualifying, yes,

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Speaker 2: they were in a very easy group. They finished second

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Speaker 2: to Romania, but they had a plus two expected goal

247
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Speaker 2: differential per ninety minutes, So at some level you have

248
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Speaker 2: to say, okay, you can discredit that because they did

249
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Speaker 2: have an easy group. But y'all, but you can only

250
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Speaker 2: play who's in front of you, right, and putting up

251
00:12:23,679 --> 00:12:27,520
Speaker 2: that impressive of numbers definitely raises some eyebrows, and I

252
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Speaker 2: think at the international level, because these teams don't train

253
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Speaker 2: as often together as the club teams do, having that

254
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Speaker 2: continuity and that same core is incredibly valuable. And Switzerland

255
00:12:39,280 --> 00:12:42,400
Speaker 2: has that even through qualifying. I mean when they're two

256
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Speaker 2: matches against Romania, they didn't get results in them, but

257
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Speaker 2: I mean they created close to five expectacles in those

258
00:12:47,679 --> 00:12:49,240
Speaker 2: two matches, just could not put the ball in the

259
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Speaker 2: back of the net. They have granted Shaka, who is

260
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Speaker 2: in the form of his life for Leverkus in the season,

261
00:12:53,360 --> 00:12:56,080
Speaker 2: conducting their entire attack, Like I said, a very solid

262
00:12:56,120 --> 00:12:59,560
Speaker 2: center back Perry m Fabian shar Elvetti or a Kanji.

263
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Speaker 2: They have potentially, you know, I would say one of

264
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Speaker 2: the best goalkeepers in this tournament, whether they start greg

265
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Speaker 2: Or Cabal or Yon Summer. And the system that they're

266
00:13:09,600 --> 00:13:14,640
Speaker 2: playing under Yaiken has been so good for so long,

267
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Speaker 2: and they're really good at breaking down low blocks. They

268
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Speaker 2: use a lot of passing triangles in the half spaces.

269
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Speaker 2: They wrecked Romanian with that. They're we're being really good

270
00:13:22,800 --> 00:13:26,000
Speaker 2: at breaking down low blocks is crucial in this tournament

271
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Speaker 2: and this group, especially because they're going to play two

272
00:13:28,280 --> 00:13:30,760
Speaker 2: of them in their first two matches. So I really

273
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Speaker 2: like Switzerland and Germany plus one twenty five. I think

274
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Speaker 2: they're a clear level above Hungary and Scotland, and I

275
00:13:36,280 --> 00:13:38,600
Speaker 2: also like Hungary to finish bottom of this group at

276
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Speaker 2: plus one sixty. Hungary, the problem with them is is

277
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Speaker 2: that throughout qualifying they were in an even or positive

278
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Speaker 2: game state pretty much throughout all of it. So it's

279
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Speaker 2: easy to sit in a five three to two low

280
00:13:50,200 --> 00:13:53,040
Speaker 2: block and play passively and play in transition when you're

281
00:13:53,040 --> 00:13:55,760
Speaker 2: always either tied or leading. But the second that they're

282
00:13:55,800 --> 00:13:58,000
Speaker 2: actually losing a match and they have to press, they're

283
00:13:58,080 --> 00:13:59,960
Speaker 2: terrible in transition defense. They're one of the worst sets

284
00:14:00,240 --> 00:14:03,440
Speaker 2: defense in this entire tournament, so you're taking away essentially

285
00:14:03,480 --> 00:14:05,400
Speaker 2: when you have to play Scotland. Those are two things

286
00:14:05,400 --> 00:14:08,599
Speaker 2: that Scotland actually does well. So I like Hungary to

287
00:14:08,600 --> 00:14:10,760
Speaker 2: finish bottle and plus one sixty. Their numbers are in

288
00:14:10,840 --> 00:14:13,040
Speaker 2: qualifying really weren't that good. I got all played in

289
00:14:13,040 --> 00:14:15,240
Speaker 2: both matches by Serbia, even though they won both of them,

290
00:14:15,280 --> 00:14:17,360
Speaker 2: so those are my two bets for Groupe.

291
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Speaker 1: Yeah, we talked a lot, I mean our first episodes

292
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Speaker 1: on this podcast. We're right ahead of euro twenty twenty,

293
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Speaker 1: and we talked a lot about and I did especially Turkey,

294
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Speaker 1: and they became pretty trendy sleeper and fell flat on

295
00:14:29,240 --> 00:14:31,280
Speaker 1: your face. I think you've kind of identified it Hungry

296
00:14:31,320 --> 00:14:33,440
Speaker 1: as as that team that I think a lot of

297
00:14:33,480 --> 00:14:36,640
Speaker 1: people will back and could come up short and knock

298
00:14:36,680 --> 00:14:38,280
Speaker 1: a lot of people out of pools in terms of

299
00:14:38,320 --> 00:14:41,320
Speaker 1: like trying to pick a sleeper. I'm going to build

300
00:14:41,320 --> 00:14:44,640
Speaker 1: a dual forecast round robin throughout this show as part

301
00:14:44,720 --> 00:14:47,600
Speaker 1: of how I'll be betting this, and for me, it's

302
00:14:47,600 --> 00:14:49,720
Speaker 1: Germany and Scotland. And I know, Sam, You're going to

303
00:14:49,760 --> 00:14:52,440
Speaker 1: be on an opposite trajectory here with the Scotts, But

304
00:14:52,520 --> 00:14:56,120
Speaker 1: what I like about them is in these tournament settings,

305
00:14:56,120 --> 00:15:00,440
Speaker 1: in these tournament environments, being hard to beat is crucial

306
00:15:00,760 --> 00:15:02,520
Speaker 1: and I think that Scotland is set up to do that.

307
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Speaker 1: And I hate the fact that they're playing Germany right

308
00:15:04,520 --> 00:15:06,560
Speaker 1: out the gates and it's going to be a cauldron

309
00:15:06,600 --> 00:15:09,120
Speaker 1: and a in a brutal atmosphere in that standalone game

310
00:15:09,120 --> 00:15:13,240
Speaker 1: on the opening night of the tournament. So perhaps you

311
00:15:13,240 --> 00:15:15,120
Speaker 1: can wait, sit and wait for them to get absolutely

312
00:15:15,120 --> 00:15:17,840
Speaker 1: worked by Germany and then back back them even at

313
00:15:17,880 --> 00:15:19,720
Speaker 1: a better number. But I'm gonna go for it here

314
00:15:19,720 --> 00:15:22,280
Speaker 1: at plus four thirty. I think that in the middle

315
00:15:22,280 --> 00:15:25,160
Speaker 1: of the park they should be okay with like you know,

316
00:15:25,200 --> 00:15:29,080
Speaker 1: the Billy Gilmour's of the world, Scott mcdommin ay as

317
00:15:29,120 --> 00:15:32,120
Speaker 1: they're kind of maverick and then John McGinn as well

318
00:15:32,120 --> 00:15:34,840
Speaker 1: as like a creative force. I don't I don't see

319
00:15:34,880 --> 00:15:39,600
Speaker 1: too many glaring issues outside of the injuries on the

320
00:15:40,920 --> 00:15:45,600
Speaker 1: with with like Nathan Patterson and missing out so like

321
00:15:45,640 --> 00:15:47,520
Speaker 1: they're they're on their third choice out there on the

322
00:15:47,560 --> 00:15:49,960
Speaker 1: wing back. But I think that there's enough depth here,

323
00:15:50,000 --> 00:15:52,200
Speaker 1: which is something you don't really hear, I guess from

324
00:15:52,240 --> 00:15:55,680
Speaker 1: from Scotland, to cover those holes. So I actually like

325
00:15:55,680 --> 00:15:57,360
Speaker 1: the Scotts to finish. Second, I just don't think that

326
00:15:57,400 --> 00:15:59,720
Speaker 1: the rest of the group is good enough to scare

327
00:15:59,760 --> 00:16:02,320
Speaker 1: me off of them. I think, as you said, BJ,

328
00:16:02,720 --> 00:16:05,280
Speaker 1: maybe I'm kind of just getting tired of the whole

329
00:16:05,360 --> 00:16:08,600
Speaker 1: set it and forget it nature of Switzerland, which is yeah,

330
00:16:08,600 --> 00:16:10,720
Speaker 1: they'll just you know, go to sleep, wake up in

331
00:16:10,760 --> 00:16:12,680
Speaker 1: the round of sixteen and that we'll find them there,

332
00:16:13,360 --> 00:16:15,440
Speaker 1: you know, one win and two draws or something like that.

333
00:16:15,480 --> 00:16:18,720
Speaker 1: Wind draw last. So maybe I'm just getting tired of that,

334
00:16:18,800 --> 00:16:21,840
Speaker 1: but I have a little more faith in the Scottish

335
00:16:21,880 --> 00:16:26,640
Speaker 1: ceiling then I guess maybe the market and you Sam.

336
00:16:26,760 --> 00:16:29,480
Speaker 3: Yeah, this is why, this is why I love betting

337
00:16:29,560 --> 00:16:32,040
Speaker 3: really because I completely disagree with both of you.

338
00:16:32,080 --> 00:16:32,720
Speaker 4: But that's fine.

339
00:16:34,320 --> 00:16:37,920
Speaker 3: Scotland not to qualify it plus plus one hundred would

340
00:16:37,960 --> 00:16:39,200
Speaker 3: you call that Evans as well?

341
00:16:39,520 --> 00:16:41,520
Speaker 2: Yep, that's money.

342
00:16:42,160 --> 00:16:46,480
Speaker 3: We'll go with even money. So I like Hungary more

343
00:16:46,480 --> 00:16:48,880
Speaker 3: so than I like Scotland. They for me, they've got

344
00:16:48,920 --> 00:16:51,760
Speaker 3: all the tools to cause problems and we saw as

345
00:16:51,840 --> 00:16:55,920
Speaker 3: much in both recent victories versus England one nil in

346
00:16:56,000 --> 00:16:59,200
Speaker 3: Hungary and beat us for nail at Wembley which doesn't happen.

347
00:17:00,280 --> 00:17:02,400
Speaker 4: Also beat Germany not longer in the Nation's League.

348
00:17:02,400 --> 00:17:05,160
Speaker 3: They're be pretty robust at the back, and I feel

349
00:17:05,160 --> 00:17:08,520
Speaker 3: like they're equally capable and brave enough to progress through

350
00:17:08,560 --> 00:17:10,640
Speaker 3: the thirds, and that's what you need in a major tournament.

351
00:17:10,640 --> 00:17:14,479
Speaker 3: You need that bravery when it really matters, and they

352
00:17:14,520 --> 00:17:17,720
Speaker 3: were unbeaten in all eight qualifying games. They hadn't lost

353
00:17:17,800 --> 00:17:21,879
Speaker 3: the previous fourteen outings before losing against Ireland a couple

354
00:17:21,880 --> 00:17:25,520
Speaker 3: of days ago, which was unlucky. I'm not sold on

355
00:17:25,840 --> 00:17:30,000
Speaker 3: Hungry pipping Switzerland to second, considering how well rounded the

356
00:17:30,000 --> 00:17:34,359
Speaker 3: Swiss squad feels. You've got shah a Kanji, jacka okerf

357
00:17:34,480 --> 00:17:37,240
Speaker 3: Shakiri or you know, just a decent side packed with

358
00:17:37,720 --> 00:17:41,080
Speaker 3: elite level experience in quality. So for me, the question

359
00:17:41,359 --> 00:17:44,119
Speaker 3: was how do you get Hungry on side when Switzerland

360
00:17:44,200 --> 00:17:47,760
Speaker 3: are so close in terms of quality and likely points total.

361
00:17:48,320 --> 00:17:51,760
Speaker 3: So in the end, all fingers pointed to Scotland struggling

362
00:17:51,760 --> 00:17:54,400
Speaker 3: to impose themselves in a pretty tough group. And there's

363
00:17:54,560 --> 00:17:58,560
Speaker 3: plus one ten available for the Scots to finish last

364
00:17:58,600 --> 00:18:01,400
Speaker 3: and even money for and not to qualify, which means

365
00:18:01,480 --> 00:18:04,600
Speaker 3: they can finish third and this still wins and for

366
00:18:04,760 --> 00:18:07,600
Speaker 3: out of the six of the best third place teams

367
00:18:07,640 --> 00:18:11,439
Speaker 3: will qualify for around the sixteen. So Linden Dykes was

368
00:18:11,480 --> 00:18:14,760
Speaker 3: injured in training, maybe like a week or so ago,

369
00:18:15,000 --> 00:18:18,359
Speaker 3: Aaron Hicky is out, Ben Doak left camp. He offered

370
00:18:18,400 --> 00:18:20,720
Speaker 3: like a wild card spark on the wing, and so

371
00:18:20,760 --> 00:18:23,639
Speaker 3: they've lost that focal point up top. And I'm not sure,

372
00:18:23,840 --> 00:18:26,640
Speaker 3: if the likes of Jay Adams is going to cut

373
00:18:26,680 --> 00:18:31,000
Speaker 3: it at a major tournament against Hungary, Switzerland, Germany, they're

374
00:18:31,000 --> 00:18:32,960
Speaker 3: going to need a lot of help from the likes

375
00:18:33,000 --> 00:18:36,200
Speaker 3: of Scot mctominey and John mcginni the field. If those

376
00:18:36,240 --> 00:18:41,040
Speaker 3: two have a busy, active tournament, if they really turn up,

377
00:18:41,080 --> 00:18:44,160
Speaker 3: then we might well see Scotland progress. If they don't,

378
00:18:44,200 --> 00:18:47,240
Speaker 3: if they're a little quiet in midfield, and the three

379
00:18:47,400 --> 00:18:50,480
Speaker 3: nations I mentioned can keep them quiet, then I fear

380
00:18:50,520 --> 00:18:53,840
Speaker 3: for Scotland. So even money that's Scotland to finish fourth

381
00:18:53,960 --> 00:18:57,160
Speaker 3: or third and you know, be one of the two

382
00:18:57,320 --> 00:19:01,680
Speaker 3: worst third place teams and not quite for the knockout stages,

383
00:19:01,880 --> 00:19:03,720
Speaker 3: I thought that was not bad price.

384
00:19:04,480 --> 00:19:05,960
Speaker 2: But I will say, to add on to what Sam

385
00:19:06,000 --> 00:19:07,880
Speaker 2: is saying, what I will say, I think he's right

386
00:19:07,920 --> 00:19:10,280
Speaker 2: in the fact that I think that Group A and

387
00:19:10,320 --> 00:19:12,960
Speaker 2: Group E are your most likely groups to not get

388
00:19:12,960 --> 00:19:15,119
Speaker 2: a third place team through, because if you look through

389
00:19:15,119 --> 00:19:16,879
Speaker 2: all of your groups, which we'll get to, there's a

390
00:19:16,880 --> 00:19:19,159
Speaker 2: pretty clear bottom team that everybody's going to have a

391
00:19:19,200 --> 00:19:22,080
Speaker 2: winning hopefully have a win against. So if you're betting

392
00:19:22,119 --> 00:19:23,800
Speaker 2: a team not to advance, whether it be hungry whether

393
00:19:23,840 --> 00:19:26,040
Speaker 2: it be Scotland. I think Groupe is one of those

394
00:19:26,040 --> 00:19:27,800
Speaker 2: groups that potentially the third place team is not going

395
00:19:27,840 --> 00:19:28,280
Speaker 2: to go through.

396
00:19:29,960 --> 00:19:34,399
Speaker 1: Okay, let's move on Group B, which is I think

397
00:19:34,440 --> 00:19:37,680
Speaker 1: you can make an argument for the two groups of death,

398
00:19:38,400 --> 00:19:40,360
Speaker 1: maybe a you know, a Tier one group of death

399
00:19:40,400 --> 00:19:42,760
Speaker 1: and this would be this one. Spain is the odds

400
00:19:42,760 --> 00:19:45,040
Speaker 1: on favorite to win the group at minus won twenty five.

401
00:19:45,640 --> 00:19:47,840
Speaker 1: They are followed by Italy to defending champs at two

402
00:19:47,880 --> 00:19:52,280
Speaker 1: to one. Croatia plus four fifty Albania is the clear

403
00:19:53,240 --> 00:19:56,680
Speaker 1: bottom feeder here at twenty five to one BJA. Quick

404
00:19:56,800 --> 00:19:59,480
Speaker 1: before we get into this, and as we were looking

405
00:19:59,520 --> 00:20:01,920
Speaker 1: through this and I had a good laugh thinking about it,

406
00:20:02,240 --> 00:20:04,520
Speaker 1: do you remember who was given the Golden Ball at

407
00:20:04,560 --> 00:20:05,639
Speaker 1: Euro twenty twenty.

408
00:20:06,080 --> 00:20:10,200
Speaker 2: I do. It's Dounorama. Yeah crazy, use like one hundred

409
00:20:10,240 --> 00:20:10,399
Speaker 2: to one.

410
00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:13,000
Speaker 1: Yeah it was. I will get it into player fags

411
00:20:13,040 --> 00:20:14,480
Speaker 1: at the end too. But just something to keep in

412
00:20:14,480 --> 00:20:16,919
Speaker 1: mind that that, hey, we've seen a goalkeeper do it?

413
00:20:16,960 --> 00:20:19,080
Speaker 1: Is this one straightforward? As it looks, BJA with Spain.

414
00:20:19,320 --> 00:20:21,280
Speaker 1: I like the Spain Italy dual forecast as part of

415
00:20:21,280 --> 00:20:24,920
Speaker 1: that round robin. I think that Croatia's the concerns about

416
00:20:24,960 --> 00:20:27,399
Speaker 1: the age, and we just had this conversation before the

417
00:20:27,400 --> 00:20:29,639
Speaker 1: previous World Cup like we're like, okay, this is it.

418
00:20:29,640 --> 00:20:31,640
Speaker 1: They can't quite do it again, there's no no way.

419
00:20:31,680 --> 00:20:34,240
Speaker 1: And then they did it again and it was sensational

420
00:20:34,280 --> 00:20:37,520
Speaker 1: to watch. But it was not just like the age profile,

421
00:20:37,560 --> 00:20:39,600
Speaker 1: but it's how they go about winning games that was

422
00:20:39,640 --> 00:20:42,720
Speaker 1: also it felt unsustainable. So it was just finally the

423
00:20:42,840 --> 00:20:45,400
Speaker 1: year where we can say, all right, you can feel

424
00:20:45,400 --> 00:20:47,720
Speaker 1: confident bending against this Croatian team with the way the

425
00:20:47,720 --> 00:20:51,040
Speaker 1: group sets up. So I like Spain Italy plus two thirty.

426
00:20:51,800 --> 00:20:54,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I agree, So I'm gonna go Croatian in different aspects.

427
00:20:56,119 --> 00:20:57,919
Speaker 2: So like them under five and a half goals for

428
00:20:57,960 --> 00:21:02,560
Speaker 2: the tournament minus one twenty five, so forever for at least,

429
00:21:02,600 --> 00:21:04,320
Speaker 2: you know, going back to at least the twenty eighteen

430
00:21:04,359 --> 00:21:07,000
Speaker 2: World Cup. The talk of Croatia has always been their

431
00:21:07,040 --> 00:21:10,400
Speaker 2: midfield and how they have an advantage over everybody with Modrich,

432
00:21:10,480 --> 00:21:13,920
Speaker 2: Kovacic and Broseovich. Well if you look at those three guys, now,

433
00:21:14,200 --> 00:21:16,840
Speaker 2: Broseovich is over in the Saudi Pro League, Modrich is

434
00:21:16,840 --> 00:21:19,480
Speaker 2: now thirty seven. He's still playing fine, but he's thirty seven,

435
00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:22,639
Speaker 2: and Kovacic. Really, I didn't think was that great for

436
00:21:22,720 --> 00:21:26,639
Speaker 2: Manchester City this season and the problems that exist for Croatia.

437
00:21:26,720 --> 00:21:29,720
Speaker 2: They're still a very solid defensive team, like they will

438
00:21:29,720 --> 00:21:31,320
Speaker 2: man mark you and they will come at you, and

439
00:21:31,359 --> 00:21:33,760
Speaker 2: they will cause a lot of problems because their midfield

440
00:21:33,800 --> 00:21:35,560
Speaker 2: is still pretty decent at defending and they have a

441
00:21:35,600 --> 00:21:38,040
Speaker 2: pretty good back line. But when they get to the

442
00:21:38,040 --> 00:21:40,600
Speaker 2: final third, that's where things tend to break down. They

443
00:21:40,600 --> 00:21:42,399
Speaker 2: don't have any wingers that can beat you in one

444
00:21:42,480 --> 00:21:45,720
Speaker 2: v one situations. Up top, it's going to be Kramerrich

445
00:21:46,080 --> 00:21:48,119
Speaker 2: or Budhemer, who are both thirty two years old and

446
00:21:48,200 --> 00:21:52,960
Speaker 2: had very average numbers at the club level during qualifying.

447
00:21:53,920 --> 00:21:57,200
Speaker 2: You know they did. They played a pretty difficult group

448
00:21:57,240 --> 00:21:59,760
Speaker 2: there with Turkey and Wales. The four matches against those

449
00:21:59,800 --> 00:22:02,000
Speaker 2: two teams they only created five point two expected goals

450
00:22:02,040 --> 00:22:04,040
Speaker 2: and then they kind of ran the score up against

451
00:22:04,080 --> 00:22:08,679
Speaker 2: Armenia and Latvia. But the problem with them is that

452
00:22:08,720 --> 00:22:10,480
Speaker 2: they struggle to play through the middle of the pitch.

453
00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:11,920
Speaker 2: They get the ball out wide and either it ends

454
00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:14,359
Speaker 2: with the cross or shot from outside the box. Well,

455
00:22:14,920 --> 00:22:17,080
Speaker 2: they were twelfth in cross completion rate and twenty first

456
00:22:17,080 --> 00:22:19,119
Speaker 2: and aerial dual win rates, so they don't really have

457
00:22:19,800 --> 00:22:21,760
Speaker 2: somebody in the box who can get on the end

458
00:22:21,880 --> 00:22:24,640
Speaker 2: of those balls and win those aerial duels. And they're

459
00:22:24,640 --> 00:22:27,679
Speaker 2: going to play three really good defensive teams. Spain for

460
00:22:28,200 --> 00:22:30,000
Speaker 2: all of their problems, and you know we'll get to

461
00:22:30,000 --> 00:22:33,080
Speaker 2: them defending in transition. Kreus is not a team that

462
00:22:33,119 --> 00:22:35,560
Speaker 2: can really beat you in transition. Italy is a very

463
00:22:35,640 --> 00:22:38,720
Speaker 2: solid defensive team as well, and even Albania, you know

464
00:22:38,720 --> 00:22:41,840
Speaker 2: they're going to be playing a very very low defensive block.

465
00:22:41,880 --> 00:22:44,520
Speaker 2: And even if they overperformed, they still allowed four goals

466
00:22:44,600 --> 00:22:46,879
Speaker 2: during qualifying an under one expected goal for ninety minutes.

467
00:22:47,000 --> 00:22:50,159
Speaker 2: So it's three very tough defensive sides that they're going

468
00:22:50,240 --> 00:22:54,040
Speaker 2: to face, and their prospects of getting deep in this tournament, Michael,

469
00:22:54,359 --> 00:22:56,639
Speaker 2: I mean, I think that just all the magic and

470
00:22:56,680 --> 00:22:59,880
Speaker 2: the energy has run out for them unless they get there,

471
00:23:00,000 --> 00:23:01,840
Speaker 2: which they did in the World Cup just on sheer

472
00:23:02,240 --> 00:23:06,480
Speaker 2: will effort and alligator blood. I don't see how they're

473
00:23:06,560 --> 00:23:09,640
Speaker 2: gonna make it this deep into the tournament with how

474
00:23:09,720 --> 00:23:12,080
Speaker 2: weak this attack is. So I only have to only

475
00:23:12,080 --> 00:23:13,920
Speaker 2: have them projected for two point nine goals in their

476
00:23:13,920 --> 00:23:16,600
Speaker 2: three group stage matches, so even if they get through

477
00:23:16,600 --> 00:23:18,000
Speaker 2: in third place, they're gonna have to play one of

478
00:23:18,040 --> 00:23:22,360
Speaker 2: the one of the the group winners. So I mean,

479
00:23:23,400 --> 00:23:25,120
Speaker 2: it's gonna it's tough for me to see how they're

480
00:23:25,119 --> 00:23:27,560
Speaker 2: actually getting to six goals in this tournament unless they

481
00:23:27,600 --> 00:23:28,640
Speaker 2: somehow make a deep run.

482
00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:32,200
Speaker 1: Yeah, And it's it's funny too that where now four

483
00:23:32,240 --> 00:23:34,720
Speaker 1: years removed from Italy or three years I guess technically

484
00:23:34,800 --> 00:23:40,280
Speaker 1: since with Italy winning and it's almost this their prospects

485
00:23:40,320 --> 00:23:41,920
Speaker 1: of the tournament and going on a deep run. It

486
00:23:41,960 --> 00:23:44,439
Speaker 1: feels the same exact kind of narrative as it was

487
00:23:44,640 --> 00:23:46,720
Speaker 1: before the last one. Nobody's really talking about them. They're

488
00:23:46,720 --> 00:23:48,760
Speaker 1: sitting around, you know, in the double digits in terms

489
00:23:48,800 --> 00:23:51,960
Speaker 1: of odds, and uh, I don't I don't think they're

490
00:23:52,000 --> 00:23:54,560
Speaker 1: going to be have too many friends in the betting market, Sam,

491
00:23:54,600 --> 00:23:59,320
Speaker 1: But uh, they're quietly, I think, very solidly the second

492
00:23:59,359 --> 00:24:01,520
Speaker 1: best team in this group and I don't think it.

493
00:24:01,800 --> 00:24:04,680
Speaker 1: I think this group looks more straightforward then the Group

494
00:24:04,720 --> 00:24:07,679
Speaker 1: of death label will make it. But what do you

495
00:24:07,760 --> 00:24:10,200
Speaker 1: have on your threats for Group B? What's your favorite

496
00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:10,560
Speaker 1: bet here?

497
00:24:10,680 --> 00:24:11,560
Speaker 4: My favorite bet here?

498
00:24:11,760 --> 00:24:15,800
Speaker 3: Like BJ, I'm sticking with a pick in the ghost

499
00:24:15,800 --> 00:24:19,960
Speaker 3: market Alva. Alvaro Marata top La Lega scorer plus six hundred,

500
00:24:20,040 --> 00:24:22,600
Speaker 3: so he's going to be up top for four favorite Spain.

501
00:24:23,600 --> 00:24:28,679
Speaker 3: And do you have marmite in the States spread on

502
00:24:28,720 --> 00:24:29,639
Speaker 3: toast and stuff.

503
00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:31,399
Speaker 1: Like Vegiemite is like a vegie might kind of thing.

504
00:24:31,440 --> 00:24:33,639
Speaker 1: We don't, we don't, we don't, but we know what

505
00:24:33,720 --> 00:24:34,800
Speaker 1: it is, right.

506
00:24:34,960 --> 00:24:38,800
Speaker 3: So Alvaro Marat is marmt like people either love him

507
00:24:38,960 --> 00:24:40,000
Speaker 3: or hate him.

508
00:24:43,920 --> 00:24:44,399
Speaker 4: There you go.

509
00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:47,840
Speaker 3: He's one of those strikers where when he's for on

510
00:24:47,960 --> 00:24:50,920
Speaker 3: go you often you don't really fancy him and you

511
00:24:50,960 --> 00:24:53,760
Speaker 3: expect him to mess up somehow. You expect the keeper

512
00:24:53,800 --> 00:24:55,879
Speaker 3: to smugle the ball at his feet and up. I

513
00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:58,679
Speaker 3: know I'm not really selling this, but he's going to

514
00:24:58,720 --> 00:25:02,040
Speaker 3: be down the middle of Spanish team littered with top

515
00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:05,440
Speaker 3: level creative outlets and they're going to provide the opportunities

516
00:25:05,680 --> 00:25:08,919
Speaker 3: for Marata and it's just the case of him needing

517
00:25:09,000 --> 00:25:10,480
Speaker 3: to put the ball in the back of the net.

518
00:25:10,600 --> 00:25:15,600
Speaker 3: So if you look at his season in Spain just gone,

519
00:25:15,640 --> 00:25:18,840
Speaker 3: Marat has got fifteen goals from thirteen point seven eight

520
00:25:19,000 --> 00:25:22,000
Speaker 3: x g in Laaliga for Athletic and Madrid. He's scored

521
00:25:22,040 --> 00:25:24,679
Speaker 3: five goals in eight Champions League starts, so he's had

522
00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:27,439
Speaker 3: a good season. Not unbelievable, but twenty plus goals at

523
00:25:27,480 --> 00:25:29,880
Speaker 3: that level is not to be sniffed that and he'll

524
00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:32,760
Speaker 3: be coming here. He'll be heading to Germany fancying his

525
00:25:32,840 --> 00:25:35,080
Speaker 3: chances of getting on the score sheet in that team

526
00:25:35,520 --> 00:25:37,440
Speaker 3: and in the better And if you have a look

527
00:25:37,480 --> 00:25:39,959
Speaker 3: at what we've got there, we've got Jude Bellingham favorite

528
00:25:40,000 --> 00:25:43,199
Speaker 3: at plus three hundred. Now I'm not too sure about that.

529
00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:45,120
Speaker 3: I can see him maybe playing a deeper role next

530
00:25:45,119 --> 00:25:47,639
Speaker 3: to Declan Rice, but I'm also not too sure about

531
00:25:48,440 --> 00:25:50,240
Speaker 3: whether that's going to happen because there's a lot of

532
00:25:50,320 --> 00:25:52,840
Speaker 3: question marks that Southgate needs to get his head around there.

533
00:25:53,040 --> 00:25:55,080
Speaker 3: I'll be going to play Connor Gallagher. Are you going

534
00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:57,360
Speaker 3: to go for Adam Waton or Kilby Mayney? So I'm

535
00:25:57,359 --> 00:25:59,920
Speaker 3: not too sure about that. But I don't think Jude

536
00:26:00,040 --> 00:26:03,720
Speaker 3: Ellingham is going to get your four five six goals

537
00:26:03,760 --> 00:26:07,480
Speaker 3: at this tournament. And then we've got Marata at plus

538
00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:11,440
Speaker 3: six hundred, dop Bick at plus seven hundred, Grisman at

539
00:26:11,520 --> 00:26:13,560
Speaker 3: plus eight hundred, and for me, for me, I just

540
00:26:13,600 --> 00:26:17,240
Speaker 3: think Marata stands out because dop Bicic. I don't think

541
00:26:17,560 --> 00:26:20,199
Speaker 3: Ukraine's gonna do enough for him. I think he's going

542
00:26:20,200 --> 00:26:21,960
Speaker 3: to score a couple of goals. We'll get onto that later,

543
00:26:22,000 --> 00:26:23,760
Speaker 3: but I don't think they're going to do enough to

544
00:26:24,040 --> 00:26:26,720
Speaker 3: get him four or five six goes and Griesman obviously

545
00:26:27,280 --> 00:26:30,480
Speaker 3: the goes aren't really shared around it shared around it

546
00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:33,800
Speaker 3: that French team. So yeah, at plus six hundred, Mara

547
00:26:34,000 --> 00:26:37,120
Speaker 3: really stood out for me in that Spanish team because

548
00:26:37,119 --> 00:26:39,240
Speaker 3: he is going to get opportunities, we just need him

549
00:26:39,359 --> 00:26:40,400
Speaker 3: to take them.

550
00:26:40,640 --> 00:26:43,480
Speaker 2: We have a big affinity for album Marato on this podcast, Sam,

551
00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:45,280
Speaker 2: we bet him at the Last Heroes at the World

552
00:26:45,280 --> 00:26:47,919
Speaker 2: Cup to win the Golden Boot. The Last Eros was

553
00:26:48,160 --> 00:26:51,280
Speaker 2: particularly hilarious because, as you mentioned, he has a finishing problem.

554
00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:53,520
Speaker 2: In front of that three goals off four point five

555
00:26:53,600 --> 00:26:56,760
Speaker 2: expected that was second to Ronaldo at the Last Heroes

556
00:26:56,760 --> 00:26:58,800
Speaker 2: and even if you know, for people who remember that,

557
00:26:58,920 --> 00:27:01,720
Speaker 2: it was some of the most painful just moments in

558
00:27:01,720 --> 00:27:04,000
Speaker 2: front of net where he would just miss actual sitters.

559
00:27:04,040 --> 00:27:07,320
Speaker 2: So we love him on this podcast to death. We

560
00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:10,760
Speaker 2: love guys typically who we either have like high XG

561
00:27:10,920 --> 00:27:13,960
Speaker 2: and can't finish because usually they're undervalued in the betting market,

562
00:27:14,000 --> 00:27:17,199
Speaker 2: somebody like you mentioned with Alvara Maratas. So for those

563
00:27:17,240 --> 00:27:18,640
Speaker 2: of you who have been listening for a long time, yes,

564
00:27:18,680 --> 00:27:20,800
Speaker 2: we're rolling it back again at this time.

565
00:27:21,160 --> 00:27:23,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, they'll be. There'll be a lot more Alva Morata

566
00:27:23,359 --> 00:27:27,880
Speaker 1: tak towards the end of the show. All right, group

567
00:27:27,960 --> 00:27:30,879
Speaker 1: C the inflection point here for you, Sam, We're going

568
00:27:30,960 --> 00:27:34,159
Speaker 1: to talk about England's group. They are minus two fifty

569
00:27:34,200 --> 00:27:36,800
Speaker 1: to win it ahead of Denmark. We're four to one,

570
00:27:36,880 --> 00:27:41,680
Speaker 1: Serbia eight to one and Slovenia ten to one. Well,

571
00:27:41,720 --> 00:27:44,200
Speaker 1: we'll get into the bets, but you're as an Englishman,

572
00:27:44,800 --> 00:27:48,280
Speaker 1: your general thoughts here is it's football finally coming home

573
00:27:48,920 --> 00:27:50,640
Speaker 1: in twenty twenty four.

574
00:27:51,480 --> 00:27:55,359
Speaker 3: In a word, Michael, No, no, I don't think it

575
00:27:55,520 --> 00:27:59,720
Speaker 3: is like most English football.

576
00:27:59,760 --> 00:27:59,960
Speaker 4: Five.

577
00:28:00,440 --> 00:28:03,280
Speaker 3: I'm not too sure how we're favorites if you look

578
00:28:03,280 --> 00:28:07,120
Speaker 3: at like maybe it from like an individual player basis,

579
00:28:07,160 --> 00:28:10,200
Speaker 3: like yeah, we do. We are stacked in forward areas

580
00:28:10,359 --> 00:28:13,680
Speaker 3: and I'll get it. You know, Caine, Folden, Socker, et cetera.

581
00:28:13,800 --> 00:28:15,880
Speaker 3: On that front line, and we've got players like Cole

582
00:28:15,920 --> 00:28:18,760
Speaker 3: Palmer who you probably wouldn't you know, wouldn't spring to mind,

583
00:28:18,760 --> 00:28:23,080
Speaker 3: but he's been carrying Chelsea throughout the Premier League this season,

584
00:28:23,119 --> 00:28:25,520
Speaker 3: so we've got a lot of talent, but in terms

585
00:28:25,560 --> 00:28:28,280
Speaker 3: of the betting, in terms of being favorites, like I

586
00:28:28,440 --> 00:28:31,240
Speaker 3: just can't see it, to be honest, and that will

587
00:28:31,320 --> 00:28:35,080
Speaker 3: lead on to my pick in this group, and it's

588
00:28:35,240 --> 00:28:38,640
Speaker 3: England stage of elimination at the semi final stage up

589
00:28:38,640 --> 00:28:41,760
Speaker 3: plus three hundred and thirty three. So I feel like

590
00:28:41,760 --> 00:28:43,680
Speaker 3: a bit of a scumbag to be honesty offering this

591
00:28:43,800 --> 00:28:46,680
Speaker 3: up as a selection, almost as if I'm turning my

592
00:28:46,720 --> 00:28:51,000
Speaker 3: back on my nation. But I suppose we're on American podcast,

593
00:28:51,040 --> 00:28:53,160
Speaker 3: so hopefully this doesn't get back to anyone.

594
00:28:53,920 --> 00:28:56,760
Speaker 4: I do back England to beat most teams, I really do.

595
00:28:56,840 --> 00:28:59,000
Speaker 4: Like I said, We've got the players to do so.

596
00:28:59,000 --> 00:29:02,880
Speaker 3: Southgate's created squad is the best squad harmony I've ever

597
00:29:02,880 --> 00:29:06,040
Speaker 3: seen at international level for England. We've got match winners

598
00:29:06,080 --> 00:29:10,320
Speaker 3: throughout the team, cop Palmer, like I said, players that

599
00:29:10,400 --> 00:29:12,720
Speaker 3: are going to be like littered on the bench that

600
00:29:13,080 --> 00:29:16,720
Speaker 3: can come on and really change games. Folding Soaker Hurricane

601
00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:19,959
Speaker 3: jre Bellingham Declan Rice has been a catalyst for Arsenal's

602
00:29:19,960 --> 00:29:23,040
Speaker 3: Premier League title push. The defense is a little shaky.

603
00:29:23,400 --> 00:29:25,920
Speaker 3: I've just seen a tweet before coming onto the podcast

604
00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:29,600
Speaker 3: that Harry Maguire and Jared Branthwaite will miss out on

605
00:29:29,720 --> 00:29:32,120
Speaker 3: being on the plane for England, so it's going to

606
00:29:32,160 --> 00:29:35,560
Speaker 3: be Stones at center back with one of Dunk, Gayheye

607
00:29:35,640 --> 00:29:36,720
Speaker 3: and Gomez.

608
00:29:36,320 --> 00:29:37,080
Speaker 4: In beside him.

609
00:29:37,480 --> 00:29:40,120
Speaker 3: And I've always thought Stones at center back needs someone

610
00:29:40,160 --> 00:29:42,400
Speaker 3: beside him, like a Maguire, like some of a bit

611
00:29:42,440 --> 00:29:45,720
Speaker 3: of experience, and now Stones may be in that role

612
00:29:45,800 --> 00:29:48,840
Speaker 3: with one of the younger lads or Lewis Dunk, who

613
00:29:48,880 --> 00:29:51,560
Speaker 3: has the experience but hasn't flattered to dece even in

614
00:29:51,640 --> 00:29:54,880
Speaker 3: England shirt. So I'm not so sure about us. Defensively,

615
00:29:55,000 --> 00:29:57,840
Speaker 3: I think Stones is brilliant, but that dynamic is center back.

616
00:29:57,880 --> 00:30:00,400
Speaker 3: It worries me a little. And when I look at France,

617
00:30:00,440 --> 00:30:03,240
Speaker 3: who England will likely face in the semifinal if all

618
00:30:03,280 --> 00:30:06,480
Speaker 3: goes to plan, I'm instantly a bit shook, to be honest.

619
00:30:06,520 --> 00:30:09,920
Speaker 3: They're stacked all over the park and Bape Griesman obviously,

620
00:30:10,240 --> 00:30:12,560
Speaker 3: I think they'll run rings around us around that back

621
00:30:12,640 --> 00:30:16,040
Speaker 3: four and there's enough at the back to keep Caine

622
00:30:16,040 --> 00:30:18,400
Speaker 3: and company quiet on their day two. And if all

623
00:30:18,440 --> 00:30:21,160
Speaker 3: goes well for these nations and they're in the semifinals.

624
00:30:21,240 --> 00:30:25,120
Speaker 3: We've basically got a plus three through three on France

625
00:30:25,160 --> 00:30:27,320
Speaker 3: getting the better of the two on the day, and

626
00:30:27,360 --> 00:30:29,120
Speaker 3: at that price, I think it might be worth a

627
00:30:29,160 --> 00:30:32,200
Speaker 3: few pennies. The two met in the World Cup in

628
00:30:32,240 --> 00:30:34,920
Speaker 3: the quarter final in twenty twenty two and France had

629
00:30:34,960 --> 00:30:37,320
Speaker 3: too much for US, then too many from about thirty

630
00:30:37,320 --> 00:30:40,360
Speaker 3: five yards out and drud to win the game with

631
00:30:40,400 --> 00:30:43,480
Speaker 3: tennis some minutes left, followed by Caine's sky in a

632
00:30:43,520 --> 00:30:47,400
Speaker 3: penalty five minutes later. So yeah, I suppose even if

633
00:30:47,400 --> 00:30:50,040
Speaker 3: a nation out boxes France en route to the semi

634
00:30:50,120 --> 00:30:52,440
Speaker 3: final and faces England in the semis, then I also

635
00:30:52,440 --> 00:30:55,280
Speaker 3: wouldn't be too surprised to see England fall out on

636
00:30:55,640 --> 00:30:59,240
Speaker 3: penal penalties will fail to turn up. But yeah, if

637
00:30:59,280 --> 00:31:02,400
Speaker 3: given the choice to England's favorites for the competition at

638
00:31:02,440 --> 00:31:05,600
Speaker 3: plus three hundred or take the price here on a

639
00:31:05,600 --> 00:31:08,000
Speaker 3: semi final exit, I think he'll be much more comfortable

640
00:31:08,000 --> 00:31:08,560
Speaker 3: with the latter.

641
00:31:09,000 --> 00:31:10,720
Speaker 2: Sam, I have a question for you because that that

642
00:31:10,840 --> 00:31:12,280
Speaker 2: kind of shocked me when you said Harry moere I

643
00:31:12,560 --> 00:31:13,920
Speaker 2: wasn't gonna be there and I just saw it's because

644
00:31:13,960 --> 00:31:18,080
Speaker 2: of injury. Do you think Mark Gaye starts next to next.

645
00:31:17,840 --> 00:31:19,880
Speaker 4: To Stones potentially.

646
00:31:20,000 --> 00:31:23,200
Speaker 3: Yeah, I wouldn't, I wouldn't start Lewis Dunco really don't

647
00:31:23,200 --> 00:31:28,040
Speaker 3: think he's into it at international level. And Joe Gomez, Yeah,

648
00:31:28,280 --> 00:31:30,840
Speaker 3: I'm not sure. I'm not sure if South gates having

649
00:31:30,880 --> 00:31:33,800
Speaker 3: him at center back over gay He so Stone's in

650
00:31:33,840 --> 00:31:36,840
Speaker 3: gay he sent about partnership. Yeah, I'm just it's it's

651
00:31:36,840 --> 00:31:39,160
Speaker 3: not awful, it's not better than a lot of teams.

652
00:31:39,160 --> 00:31:40,640
Speaker 3: Bottom just not sold on it.

653
00:31:41,000 --> 00:31:42,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, I know Gaye played a couple of matches during

654
00:31:43,000 --> 00:31:46,840
Speaker 2: qualifying alongside there's a long time McGuire and Stones as well,

655
00:31:46,960 --> 00:31:50,080
Speaker 2: so I guess that would make sense. But here's one

656
00:31:50,120 --> 00:31:52,600
Speaker 2: of my one of them long as well. Yeah, one

657
00:31:52,600 --> 00:31:56,440
Speaker 2: of one of my best kind of leads into the

658
00:31:56,440 --> 00:31:58,360
Speaker 2: makeup of the England squad as well, and it's going

659
00:31:58,400 --> 00:32:00,800
Speaker 2: to be Jude Bellingham under two and a half goals

660
00:32:00,840 --> 00:32:03,120
Speaker 2: for the tournament a minus one sixty three, so, like

661
00:32:03,160 --> 00:32:04,760
Speaker 2: you mentioned Sam, he's going to be playing much of

662
00:32:04,760 --> 00:32:08,240
Speaker 2: a deeper role with England, I think, right, unless they

663
00:32:08,240 --> 00:32:11,040
Speaker 2: decide to play somebody alongside Rice and play Billingham More

664
00:32:11,040 --> 00:32:13,320
Speaker 2: as a ten, which if you have somebody like Foden

665
00:32:13,600 --> 00:32:15,520
Speaker 2: or Palmer that's able to play that role. I think

666
00:32:15,720 --> 00:32:17,360
Speaker 2: I would kind of puzzled me why you would leave

667
00:32:17,400 --> 00:32:19,160
Speaker 2: those guys on the bench. But who knows. And if

668
00:32:19,200 --> 00:32:21,240
Speaker 2: I feel like I know selfke like I do, is

669
00:32:21,240 --> 00:32:24,040
Speaker 2: he's going to value control over anything else rather than

670
00:32:24,360 --> 00:32:28,720
Speaker 2: you know, potentially playing Trent alongside Declan Rice as more

671
00:32:28,720 --> 00:32:32,680
Speaker 2: of a midfield role. So Bellingham for Real Madrid this

672
00:32:32,720 --> 00:32:36,200
Speaker 2: season played more as that number ten or a box

673
00:32:36,280 --> 00:32:38,800
Speaker 2: crashing striker because they didn't really have a striker or

674
00:32:38,840 --> 00:32:41,560
Speaker 2: played without it for most of the season. He obviously

675
00:32:41,560 --> 00:32:44,520
Speaker 2: scored twenty three goals. He was incredible. That was also

676
00:32:44,520 --> 00:32:47,200
Speaker 2: off fourteen expected and he really was only getting two

677
00:32:47,200 --> 00:32:50,640
Speaker 2: point four shots per ninety with England at the last

678
00:32:50,680 --> 00:32:53,479
Speaker 2: World Cup he averaged one point zero shots per ninety.

679
00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:56,720
Speaker 2: During qualifying he averaged one point one seven shots per ninety.

680
00:32:56,840 --> 00:32:58,560
Speaker 2: If he's going to play much of a deeper role,

681
00:32:58,600 --> 00:33:00,760
Speaker 2: he's not going to be the focal point of the attack.

682
00:33:00,960 --> 00:33:03,160
Speaker 2: And if you're only getting about a shot per ninety,

683
00:33:03,840 --> 00:33:05,680
Speaker 2: that shot is going to have to be incredibly good

684
00:33:06,000 --> 00:33:08,040
Speaker 2: to actually get to three goals. And even Finland goes

685
00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:10,280
Speaker 2: deep into this tournament, the focal point of the attack

686
00:33:10,400 --> 00:33:14,320
Speaker 2: is Foden Caine, Soka and hopefully Palmer if he plays

687
00:33:14,360 --> 00:33:16,800
Speaker 2: as well. So I think two and a half is

688
00:33:16,800 --> 00:33:18,520
Speaker 2: incredibly high, and I think it's made more of a

689
00:33:18,520 --> 00:33:20,240
Speaker 2: price on what billing him did at the club level

690
00:33:20,240 --> 00:33:23,080
Speaker 2: for Real Madrid. Another bet I like for this one,

691
00:33:23,640 --> 00:33:28,320
Speaker 2: sticking with the top league goal scorer for the Premier League,

692
00:33:28,360 --> 00:33:31,160
Speaker 2: I like Rasmal spoiland at eight to one for Denmark.

693
00:33:31,320 --> 00:33:33,440
Speaker 2: So if you look at the guys above him, you

694
00:33:33,560 --> 00:33:38,040
Speaker 2: have Voden Soka, Havevertz and Diego Jolta. I don't know

695
00:33:38,080 --> 00:33:40,680
Speaker 2: if Diego Jolta is actually gonna play for Portable, quite frankly,

696
00:33:40,680 --> 00:33:43,680
Speaker 2: because typically through qualifying they started layout on the left

697
00:33:43,680 --> 00:33:47,240
Speaker 2: and Bernardo Silva on the right. As far as Hevertz

698
00:33:47,280 --> 00:33:49,680
Speaker 2: is concerned with all you know he's going to play

699
00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:51,560
Speaker 2: the same role for Germany that he played for Arsenal,

700
00:33:51,600 --> 00:33:54,760
Speaker 2: which more is more of a deeper role in build up.

701
00:33:54,760 --> 00:33:56,720
Speaker 2: And even for Arsenal season he only averaged two point

702
00:33:56,720 --> 00:33:58,440
Speaker 2: three shots for ninety It's not like he was getting

703
00:33:58,680 --> 00:34:03,480
Speaker 2: elite level striker production. Sokka did average over three shots

704
00:34:03,480 --> 00:34:05,680
Speaker 2: per ninety. I am an Arsenal fan, Sam so I

705
00:34:05,680 --> 00:34:08,000
Speaker 2: love him to death, but most of those shots were

706
00:34:08,040 --> 00:34:09,920
Speaker 2: from outside the box and he's not the one and

707
00:34:10,120 --> 00:34:11,839
Speaker 2: Cane's the folk point of the England attack. He's going

708
00:34:11,840 --> 00:34:13,920
Speaker 2: to get all most of the shots, and same thing

709
00:34:13,920 --> 00:34:15,520
Speaker 2: with Foden. I don't know what role he's going to play.

710
00:34:15,520 --> 00:34:16,640
Speaker 2: I don't know if he's going to play out left

711
00:34:16,680 --> 00:34:17,680
Speaker 2: or I don't know if he's going to play as

712
00:34:17,719 --> 00:34:18,960
Speaker 2: a ten in the middle, So I'm not sure what

713
00:34:19,040 --> 00:34:21,200
Speaker 2: his shot production numbers are going to look like. And

714
00:34:21,239 --> 00:34:23,200
Speaker 2: even when he did play for England qualifying, he only

715
00:34:23,200 --> 00:34:25,600
Speaker 2: played a few matches, but he was barely averaging one

716
00:34:25,640 --> 00:34:28,000
Speaker 2: shot per ninety So that leads me to Hoyland, who

717
00:34:28,040 --> 00:34:29,960
Speaker 2: is going to be the main shot guy for Denmark.

718
00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:33,520
Speaker 2: He had seven goals in qualifying. If you watch Hoyland

719
00:34:33,520 --> 00:34:36,000
Speaker 2: at Manchester United this season, you'll know that he had

720
00:34:36,000 --> 00:34:38,120
Speaker 2: a really horrible first half of the season, but he

721
00:34:38,160 --> 00:34:40,560
Speaker 2: really came on in the second half eleven goals over

722
00:34:40,600 --> 00:34:43,120
Speaker 2: his last twenty matches. He's a very specialized striker in

723
00:34:43,160 --> 00:34:47,000
Speaker 2: the fact that he's really good in transition and the

724
00:34:47,000 --> 00:34:50,320
Speaker 2: matches that Denmark are going to play against Serbia, who

725
00:34:50,760 --> 00:34:52,600
Speaker 2: Michael will get to them in a second. They're the

726
00:34:52,760 --> 00:34:55,560
Speaker 2: biggest chaos team in this entire tournament in England, where

727
00:34:55,560 --> 00:34:57,239
Speaker 2: they're going to have to play in transition because they're

728
00:34:57,239 --> 00:34:59,360
Speaker 2: not going to control the ball. Those are two matches

729
00:34:59,400 --> 00:35:02,200
Speaker 2: that he can act absolutely thrive in. Then against Slovenia,

730
00:35:02,200 --> 00:35:04,239
Speaker 2: who they already played in qualifying, he's scoredon the only

731
00:35:04,280 --> 00:35:06,080
Speaker 2: goal that they played against them, And if you get

732
00:35:06,080 --> 00:35:09,200
Speaker 2: Slovenia into a negative game state, well then you're gonna

733
00:35:09,200 --> 00:35:11,719
Speaker 2: be playing in transition once again. In Denmark, although the

734
00:35:11,760 --> 00:35:15,719
Speaker 2: squad is older, I think we have some potential to

735
00:35:15,800 --> 00:35:18,560
Speaker 2: at least get to the quarterfinals. So Hoyland at a

736
00:35:18,640 --> 00:35:20,120
Speaker 2: to one, I think is going to get the most

737
00:35:20,160 --> 00:35:23,160
Speaker 2: shot production, or at least the most shots of the

738
00:35:23,200 --> 00:35:25,879
Speaker 2: guys ahead of him. So I think there's some value

739
00:35:25,920 --> 00:35:26,719
Speaker 2: on him at a to one.

740
00:35:27,239 --> 00:35:29,719
Speaker 3: I really like that as well, BJ because he's one

741
00:35:29,760 --> 00:35:34,080
Speaker 3: of those strikers where he's he's like a purple potch

742
00:35:34,160 --> 00:35:37,080
Speaker 3: streaky striker. So let's say he hits the ground running

743
00:35:37,080 --> 00:35:39,239
Speaker 3: in game one, would not be surprised to the n

744
00:35:39,320 --> 00:35:41,520
Speaker 3: T him score you know, Game two three knockouts.

745
00:35:41,520 --> 00:35:43,360
Speaker 4: So yeah, I like that. It's a good price.

746
00:35:43,600 --> 00:35:48,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, let's talk about Serbia to continue building this round robin.

747
00:35:49,000 --> 00:35:51,480
Speaker 1: I think England do kind of just end up running

748
00:35:51,480 --> 00:35:53,239
Speaker 1: away with the group here. I don't see him having

749
00:35:53,239 --> 00:35:56,920
Speaker 1: too much trouble. I like Serbia to coming second here,

750
00:35:57,520 --> 00:35:59,879
Speaker 1: and it's because of that chaos you're talking about, BJ

751
00:36:00,080 --> 00:36:02,319
Speaker 1: Do you just when Serbia shows up to a match.

752
00:36:02,320 --> 00:36:04,600
Speaker 1: We saw this at the World Cup. The person you

753
00:36:04,640 --> 00:36:06,760
Speaker 1: are before the match starts, you're gonna be a completely

754
00:36:06,800 --> 00:36:09,799
Speaker 1: different person when that match ends. Like it's these guys

755
00:36:09,880 --> 00:36:13,160
Speaker 1: show up and all hell breaks loose and it's not

756
00:36:13,239 --> 00:36:16,440
Speaker 1: and it's not a different I don't expect anything different.

757
00:36:16,440 --> 00:36:18,960
Speaker 1: We saw that at the World Cup. It was they

758
00:36:19,000 --> 00:36:21,360
Speaker 1: played a really really good game against Brazil if you

759
00:36:21,400 --> 00:36:23,440
Speaker 1: remember that right, Like they were hanging around with Brazil

760
00:36:23,520 --> 00:36:26,960
Speaker 1: that entire game. I don't think Brazil really understood how

761
00:36:27,000 --> 00:36:30,960
Speaker 1: to how to manage the situation of this this complete

762
00:36:31,080 --> 00:36:34,399
Speaker 1: fire alarm team that Serbia is. And I think that

763
00:36:34,680 --> 00:36:37,800
Speaker 1: will unsettled teams like Denmark and Slovenia that are are

764
00:36:38,320 --> 00:36:41,880
Speaker 1: so reliant on structure and cohesiveness as a group, Like

765
00:36:41,920 --> 00:36:44,239
Speaker 1: you get these the tallest group, the tallest team in

766
00:36:44,360 --> 00:36:47,640
Speaker 1: the in the tournament shows up. They're physical, they have

767
00:36:47,920 --> 00:36:51,200
Speaker 1: a really technically gifted midfield. They have they have their flaws, right,

768
00:36:51,200 --> 00:36:52,960
Speaker 1: They're eighty to one to win this tournament for a reason.

769
00:36:53,080 --> 00:36:55,080
Speaker 1: They're they're the third favorite to come to win the

770
00:36:55,080 --> 00:36:58,400
Speaker 1: group for a reason. But if they show up and

771
00:36:58,400 --> 00:37:01,239
Speaker 1: they're able to deploy what they want to do against you,

772
00:37:01,280 --> 00:37:03,879
Speaker 1: and they get the game off your script, you're gonna

773
00:37:03,880 --> 00:37:05,040
Speaker 1: be in a lot of trouble. And I don't think

774
00:37:05,080 --> 00:37:08,360
Speaker 1: that they'll have issues with with Slovenia. I think that

775
00:37:08,400 --> 00:37:12,759
Speaker 1: they'll give Denmark enough problems. Who knows how it goes

776
00:37:12,800 --> 00:37:15,080
Speaker 1: against England, but I actually think they could have some

777
00:37:15,120 --> 00:37:17,919
Speaker 1: success against You know, as Sam was talking about that

778
00:37:17,920 --> 00:37:21,680
Speaker 1: that middle part of the back of England, in the

779
00:37:21,680 --> 00:37:23,960
Speaker 1: middle part of England's back line with Stones and now

780
00:37:24,160 --> 00:37:26,560
Speaker 1: gay Hee or Donk or whoever it is. When you

781
00:37:26,600 --> 00:37:30,000
Speaker 1: look at how this Serbia team, you expect them to score. Yeah,

782
00:37:30,040 --> 00:37:35,080
Speaker 1: Like the cliche would be balls in through crosses and

783
00:37:35,160 --> 00:37:37,760
Speaker 1: Mitrovich just heading away and against a team like England,

784
00:37:37,760 --> 00:37:39,640
Speaker 1: I think that works right, Like they could be physical

785
00:37:39,680 --> 00:37:43,920
Speaker 1: with those guys. But it's like the those gifted midfielders

786
00:37:43,920 --> 00:37:46,279
Speaker 1: with the ball at their feet, like Dussan Tadic and

787
00:37:46,440 --> 00:37:51,440
Speaker 1: I'm gonna absolutely butcher some of these pronunciations, so I'm

788
00:37:51,480 --> 00:37:54,800
Speaker 1: not even gonna go there. But they he's got a

789
00:37:55,080 --> 00:38:02,040
Speaker 1: great deputy in Lazarre, some margit. You look at the Milnkovich,

790
00:38:02,200 --> 00:38:06,279
Speaker 1: Savage guys, the goalkeepers terrific, the midfielder is great, like

791
00:38:06,320 --> 00:38:09,280
Speaker 1: this is this is a team that can give you issues.

792
00:38:09,320 --> 00:38:14,400
Speaker 1: And then you know Vohovich as the kind of second

793
00:38:14,400 --> 00:38:18,800
Speaker 1: fiddle for Mitrovich, Like there's there's enough talent here. Serbia

794
00:38:18,840 --> 00:38:20,719
Speaker 1: is either gonna go oh three and oh and have

795
00:38:20,800 --> 00:38:23,640
Speaker 1: like a minus six goal differential, or they're gonna give

796
00:38:23,680 --> 00:38:25,239
Speaker 1: these teams a lot of trouble. I'm gonna go with

797
00:38:25,280 --> 00:38:27,040
Speaker 1: the other. I'm gonna be riding this team, I think

798
00:38:27,080 --> 00:38:28,879
Speaker 1: the whole tournament. And then one other thing I want

799
00:38:28,880 --> 00:38:32,319
Speaker 1: to note, if you remember the last two World Cups.

800
00:38:32,360 --> 00:38:35,560
Speaker 1: Now they've they've been dealt with some weird geopolitical matchups

801
00:38:35,600 --> 00:38:39,440
Speaker 1: where they've been taking on the Swiss, and you know,

802
00:38:39,480 --> 00:38:41,560
Speaker 1: things get kind of ugly and they can get distracted.

803
00:38:41,640 --> 00:38:44,319
Speaker 1: We've avoided that here, right, they don't have to really

804
00:38:44,320 --> 00:38:48,160
Speaker 1: worry too much about that kind of stuff. So I

805
00:38:48,200 --> 00:38:51,040
Speaker 1: know everybody in Serbia hates their manager. I kind of

806
00:38:51,080 --> 00:38:53,120
Speaker 1: like that here. I think that this team might show

807
00:38:53,160 --> 00:38:55,279
Speaker 1: up and just cause it a complete ruckus, and that's

808
00:38:55,320 --> 00:38:56,920
Speaker 1: the type of team I want to back in these

809
00:38:56,920 --> 00:39:01,000
Speaker 1: tournaments where the day it is so hard to rely

810
00:39:01,080 --> 00:39:05,320
Speaker 1: on because of different schedules that the qualifying groups teams

811
00:39:05,360 --> 00:39:09,120
Speaker 1: playing are completely differently set up. I mean, you talked

812
00:39:09,120 --> 00:39:11,480
Speaker 1: about Germany not even playing one, so the data is

813
00:39:11,520 --> 00:39:14,239
Speaker 1: really really hard to rely on. So I'm going to

814
00:39:14,320 --> 00:39:16,640
Speaker 1: lean into the chaos here. Serbia reminds me a little

815
00:39:16,640 --> 00:39:19,120
Speaker 1: bit in this tournament. Like we talked about Japan in

816
00:39:19,160 --> 00:39:21,120
Speaker 1: the World Cup. We were really into Japan and the

817
00:39:21,160 --> 00:39:22,840
Speaker 1: reason we liked them was because they were going to

818
00:39:22,840 --> 00:39:25,960
Speaker 1: show up and they were going to play this chaos

819
00:39:26,040 --> 00:39:27,640
Speaker 1: ball and it was going to be on the other

820
00:39:27,719 --> 00:39:30,960
Speaker 1: team to adapt to that. And I'm hoping that Serbia

821
00:39:31,040 --> 00:39:33,600
Speaker 1: does that and this time it works out for them,

822
00:39:33,719 --> 00:39:36,279
Speaker 1: and they've got the finishers and the goalkeeper to make

823
00:39:36,280 --> 00:39:41,440
Speaker 1: those things stand up. In my opinion, so the Serbs

824
00:39:42,160 --> 00:39:45,000
Speaker 1: to finish. So England first, Serbia second, plus two thirty

825
00:39:45,280 --> 00:39:47,840
Speaker 1: as part of that, and I'll talk more about Serbia

826
00:39:48,080 --> 00:39:51,319
Speaker 1: later in the show as well. All right, before we

827
00:39:51,360 --> 00:39:53,680
Speaker 1: move on to Group D, A reminder that wonder goal

828
00:39:53,840 --> 00:39:56,239
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829
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839
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843
00:40:36,400 --> 00:40:39,880
Speaker 1: that's Group C done and dusted. We're moving on to

844
00:40:40,360 --> 00:40:43,359
Speaker 1: Group D, which is set up for France. It's their

845
00:40:43,400 --> 00:40:45,359
Speaker 1: odds on at minus one eighty eight to top the group.

846
00:40:45,680 --> 00:40:48,920
Speaker 1: The Netherlands are plus two seventy five behind them. Very

847
00:40:48,920 --> 00:40:51,200
Speaker 1: interesting team in Austria, I think we say that any

848
00:40:51,200 --> 00:40:53,920
Speaker 1: time that they're in an international tournament. But they're eight

849
00:40:53,920 --> 00:40:56,040
Speaker 1: to one. And then a very uninteresting team in Poland,

850
00:40:56,040 --> 00:40:57,560
Speaker 1: like they just show they're kind of like the poor

851
00:40:57,600 --> 00:40:59,640
Speaker 1: man in Switzerland and these kind of things. They show

852
00:40:59,719 --> 00:41:01,879
Speaker 1: up and then they bow out. People talk about ken

853
00:41:01,960 --> 00:41:04,759
Speaker 1: Robert Lewandowski get this team over the line on his own,

854
00:41:05,160 --> 00:41:06,600
Speaker 1: and we're now at the point of his career where

855
00:41:06,600 --> 00:41:09,239
Speaker 1: the answer is pretty emphatically no, Sam and that leads

856
00:41:09,239 --> 00:41:11,080
Speaker 1: into what you're going to get into.

857
00:41:12,280 --> 00:41:12,839
Speaker 4: Yes it does.

858
00:41:12,960 --> 00:41:16,120
Speaker 3: Poland lowess scoring team at the competition plus eight hundred,

859
00:41:16,239 --> 00:41:18,760
Speaker 3: so we've got Albania plus three hundred is the favorites

860
00:41:19,239 --> 00:41:23,400
Speaker 3: to take the lowest scorers mantle in Germany this summer.

861
00:41:23,600 --> 00:41:27,800
Speaker 3: They Albania wan of qualifying group consisting of Czech Republic

862
00:41:27,960 --> 00:41:31,520
Speaker 3: who also progressed, and Poland, who finished third and scored

863
00:41:31,560 --> 00:41:35,799
Speaker 3: two goals fewer than Albania in qualifying. In Albania's group,

864
00:41:35,800 --> 00:41:39,000
Speaker 3: you've got Spain, Italy Croatia, so you can see why

865
00:41:39,080 --> 00:41:41,440
Speaker 3: you know their favorites to not score so many goes.

866
00:41:42,040 --> 00:41:45,200
Speaker 3: But Poland's group d like you just said France, Netherlands, Austria.

867
00:41:45,360 --> 00:41:47,759
Speaker 3: This is a tough group and we all know it's

868
00:41:47,800 --> 00:41:50,600
Speaker 3: pretty obvious that Lowandouci isn't the force he once was.

869
00:41:50,680 --> 00:41:53,840
Speaker 3: There are very few signs that anyone's coming in to

870
00:41:54,320 --> 00:41:57,240
Speaker 3: replace him in terms of goal scoring in this Polish side.

871
00:41:58,160 --> 00:41:59,320
Speaker 4: And if you think.

872
00:41:59,120 --> 00:42:01,440
Speaker 3: If France, then never Lands in Austria can put together

873
00:42:01,520 --> 00:42:04,759
Speaker 3: some kind of game plan to stop Lewandowski, I can't

874
00:42:04,800 --> 00:42:07,640
Speaker 3: see too many other ways that this Poland side will

875
00:42:07,760 --> 00:42:14,680
Speaker 3: consistently trouble opposition defenses since the year two thousands. Looking

876
00:42:14,719 --> 00:42:18,400
Speaker 3: on this better expert betting guides, it's the year two thousand.

877
00:42:18,480 --> 00:42:21,800
Speaker 3: Now of the thirty five nations, no country's games his

878
00:42:21,920 --> 00:42:25,399
Speaker 3: average fewer goals scored at the Euros than Poland with

879
00:42:25,440 --> 00:42:28,080
Speaker 3: one point eight goals per nineties. So it's not a

880
00:42:28,200 --> 00:42:31,400
Speaker 3: nation that's blessed with goals. And I think it's going

881
00:42:31,440 --> 00:42:33,839
Speaker 3: to be close down there in the betting with Albania,

882
00:42:34,040 --> 00:42:40,400
Speaker 3: but and I think it's Slovakia, Scotland and down there too.

883
00:42:40,760 --> 00:42:42,759
Speaker 3: Haven't got the market up in front of me, but

884
00:42:43,239 --> 00:42:46,120
Speaker 3: I think Poland should be should be down there thereabouts

885
00:42:46,200 --> 00:42:49,239
Speaker 3: when stepping up in class against the better nations, and

886
00:42:49,400 --> 00:42:51,640
Speaker 3: I just think if you look at the other nations

887
00:42:51,640 --> 00:42:57,560
Speaker 3: that I mentioned, Georgia's one too, Cavarat Scalia. I'm going

888
00:42:57,560 --> 00:43:03,480
Speaker 3: to butcher this Mikatadzi who's on loaner mats from IAKS

889
00:43:03,800 --> 00:43:06,680
Speaker 3: and also Benjamin Sesco for Slovenia too, So like these

890
00:43:06,719 --> 00:43:09,520
Speaker 3: other nations, they've got firepower. And I know you know

891
00:43:09,600 --> 00:43:12,839
Speaker 3: lowandoucis there too, but I think they might have enough

892
00:43:12,840 --> 00:43:14,920
Speaker 3: to maybe edge in front of Poland. Obviously it's a

893
00:43:14,960 --> 00:43:16,960
Speaker 3: bit of a long shot plus eight hundred, but I

894
00:43:17,040 --> 00:43:19,759
Speaker 3: think there are much worse bets you could take. So yeah,

895
00:43:19,800 --> 00:43:22,200
Speaker 3: Poland lower scoring team plus eight hundred.

896
00:43:22,239 --> 00:43:24,759
Speaker 1: Yeah, I like that bet a lot as well. When

897
00:43:24,800 --> 00:43:26,719
Speaker 1: you jatted that one down and then fall agreement, I

898
00:43:26,760 --> 00:43:28,359
Speaker 1: think what it is is it's just the numbers getting

899
00:43:28,360 --> 00:43:32,040
Speaker 1: inflated because of the presence of Lewandowski compared to these

900
00:43:32,040 --> 00:43:34,880
Speaker 1: teams that they're kind of talis men are going to

901
00:43:34,920 --> 00:43:38,400
Speaker 1: be a little less of a household name when it

902
00:43:38,400 --> 00:43:41,440
Speaker 1: comes to binding success in front of goal. So I

903
00:43:41,440 --> 00:43:43,880
Speaker 1: think that that's a good one. I talked about the Netherlands.

904
00:43:43,920 --> 00:43:46,640
Speaker 1: Is my outright pick? BJ What do you have here

905
00:43:46,719 --> 00:43:47,239
Speaker 1: in Group D?

906
00:43:48,200 --> 00:43:51,680
Speaker 2: I love Austria to advance at minus one ten. So

907
00:43:53,120 --> 00:43:56,120
Speaker 2: I think people are going to discredit Austria because they're

908
00:43:56,120 --> 00:43:58,920
Speaker 2: gonna be without David Aliba. They're gonna vowed Xaviers Schlager.

909
00:43:59,520 --> 00:44:03,720
Speaker 2: But Austria actually has really good players that those positions

910
00:44:03,760 --> 00:44:05,440
Speaker 2: that can fill in where the drop off won't be

911
00:44:05,440 --> 00:44:09,359
Speaker 2: as significant. Right, So Marcel Sibitzer, who didn't really play

912
00:44:09,400 --> 00:44:12,800
Speaker 2: much drink qualifying, who played pretty well for Dorman this season,

913
00:44:12,800 --> 00:44:15,960
Speaker 2: can slot and write Schlager's role, and they, for me

914
00:44:16,080 --> 00:44:19,799
Speaker 2: have everything you want in an underdog. Because we talk

915
00:44:19,840 --> 00:44:21,680
Speaker 2: about the teams and we'll get to the long shots

916
00:44:21,719 --> 00:44:25,120
Speaker 2: as well. But Ralph Ragnick has this team playing his

917
00:44:25,239 --> 00:44:28,080
Speaker 2: system to an absolute tea. I think people will write

918
00:44:28,120 --> 00:44:31,760
Speaker 2: off Ragnick because of how portally that spell with Manchester

919
00:44:31,880 --> 00:44:34,719
Speaker 2: United went, but you have to remember he came into

920
00:44:34,760 --> 00:44:37,120
Speaker 2: the halfway point of that season with United and it

921
00:44:37,160 --> 00:44:39,640
Speaker 2: was a team that was not set up to play

922
00:44:39,640 --> 00:44:43,080
Speaker 2: his pressing system. For those who don't know, Ragnik is

923
00:44:43,160 --> 00:44:46,680
Speaker 2: like the godfather of the German high pressing system. Guys

924
00:44:46,680 --> 00:44:50,000
Speaker 2: from klop to two Childs and nogles Man, they always

925
00:44:50,040 --> 00:44:54,040
Speaker 2: all credit Ragnik as being the first guy to really

926
00:44:54,080 --> 00:44:56,800
Speaker 2: bring that type of system onto the scene. So he's

927
00:44:56,920 --> 00:44:59,080
Speaker 2: very very good at setting his team up in a

928
00:44:59,120 --> 00:45:02,279
Speaker 2: good system, pressing style, and they were really good at

929
00:45:02,360 --> 00:45:06,200
Speaker 2: qualifying by doing that. They had they were top five

930
00:45:06,360 --> 00:45:09,319
Speaker 2: in high recoveries, but most importantly they were number one

931
00:45:09,320 --> 00:45:12,680
Speaker 2: in dual win rate, which at the basic level of football,

932
00:45:13,560 --> 00:45:16,000
Speaker 2: ignore tactics, whatever, it is, the team that wins the

933
00:45:16,000 --> 00:45:18,200
Speaker 2: most duels is generally the team that has a better

934
00:45:18,320 --> 00:45:21,520
Speaker 2: chance of winning, and Austria can do that with their midfield,

935
00:45:21,800 --> 00:45:24,680
Speaker 2: with their defense. They have a good slide, they have

936
00:45:24,719 --> 00:45:26,440
Speaker 2: a good striker and Gregor Rich who had a good

937
00:45:26,440 --> 00:45:28,759
Speaker 2: season for Freiburg. He averaged over four shots per ninety

938
00:45:28,760 --> 00:45:31,960
Speaker 2: and qualifying. They're a really good transition team. And if

939
00:45:32,000 --> 00:45:34,000
Speaker 2: you're a team like Austria who's not going to control

940
00:45:34,040 --> 00:45:37,720
Speaker 2: the ball against France or against Netherlands, you can press

941
00:45:37,760 --> 00:45:40,240
Speaker 2: well from a mid block. You can create those transition

942
00:45:40,320 --> 00:45:43,640
Speaker 2: opportunities and you can cause havoc and that's what I

943
00:45:43,680 --> 00:45:46,319
Speaker 2: want from an underdog. They're gonna, you know, I think

944
00:45:46,360 --> 00:45:48,279
Speaker 2: because of the you guys mentioned, the group is very

945
00:45:48,280 --> 00:45:51,799
Speaker 2: difficult because there's no real like, you know, bottom end

946
00:45:51,880 --> 00:45:54,920
Speaker 2: team like in Albania or a Georgia here because Poland's

947
00:45:54,960 --> 00:45:57,520
Speaker 2: that bottom end team, but they're gonna be pretty significant

948
00:45:57,520 --> 00:46:01,080
Speaker 2: favorites over Poland. They're gonna have good matchup against the Netherlands.

949
00:46:01,120 --> 00:46:03,160
Speaker 2: Minus one ten and I think is far too short

950
00:46:03,160 --> 00:46:05,799
Speaker 2: for them to advance typically the last two tournaments. To

951
00:46:05,880 --> 00:46:08,960
Speaker 2: get through in third place, it's about three points and

952
00:46:09,040 --> 00:46:12,000
Speaker 2: around an even goal differential is kind of what you need.

953
00:46:12,520 --> 00:46:14,839
Speaker 2: If you have three points in a pretty significant, significant

954
00:46:15,280 --> 00:46:17,840
Speaker 2: negative goal differential, it's gonna be very difficult. Like we

955
00:46:17,880 --> 00:46:20,359
Speaker 2: already mentioned, I think Group A and Group E are

956
00:46:20,400 --> 00:46:23,080
Speaker 2: the two groups that are most likely not to have

957
00:46:23,120 --> 00:46:25,799
Speaker 2: a team go through in third place, So I think

958
00:46:25,800 --> 00:46:28,360
Speaker 2: there's potentially Austria could even finish second in this group

959
00:46:28,640 --> 00:46:32,719
Speaker 2: as well. Sorry Michael, but I love how this team

960
00:46:32,719 --> 00:46:35,239
Speaker 2: plays under Ragnik. They're playing his system to a t

961
00:46:35,840 --> 00:46:38,680
Speaker 2: So Austria minus one ten I think is far too

962
00:46:38,760 --> 00:46:41,440
Speaker 2: short of a price for its team that averaged over

963
00:46:41,480 --> 00:46:43,719
Speaker 2: two expected goals for ninety minutes during qualifying in a

964
00:46:43,760 --> 00:46:45,200
Speaker 2: group with Belgium and Sweden.

965
00:46:45,640 --> 00:46:50,279
Speaker 1: Okay, yeah, that brings us on to Group E. I

966
00:46:50,280 --> 00:46:54,239
Speaker 1: will say an interesting caveat to that, DJs that they

967
00:46:54,239 --> 00:46:56,120
Speaker 1: do open up against France, so you might even be

968
00:46:56,200 --> 00:46:59,080
Speaker 1: able to buy back on them to advance.

969
00:47:00,040 --> 00:47:02,239
Speaker 2: Well, I would stay tuned to our first round Oh

970
00:47:02,320 --> 00:47:05,000
Speaker 2: yeah podcast, because that might not be the case.

971
00:47:05,280 --> 00:47:06,560
Speaker 1: Oh look out who knows?

972
00:47:06,760 --> 00:47:07,360
Speaker 2: Stay tuned.

973
00:47:09,120 --> 00:47:13,279
Speaker 1: Okay, that brings us to group by Belgium, freed from

974
00:47:13,280 --> 00:47:17,279
Speaker 1: the shackles of Roberto Martinez, are sitting at minus two

975
00:47:17,560 --> 00:47:20,960
Speaker 1: twenty five to win the group. They've got Ukraine as

976
00:47:20,960 --> 00:47:24,160
Speaker 1: the second favorites, Romania plus six fifty and Slovakia at

977
00:47:24,160 --> 00:47:27,120
Speaker 1: eleven to one. The more and more I've thought about this,

978
00:47:27,200 --> 00:47:28,799
Speaker 1: and as bj said off the top of the show,

979
00:47:28,920 --> 00:47:31,280
Speaker 1: Ray we it's always the favorites that win these tournaments,

980
00:47:31,280 --> 00:47:35,200
Speaker 1: but there will almost certainly be a team from out

981
00:47:35,200 --> 00:47:37,400
Speaker 1: of nowhere to make a run to whether it's the

982
00:47:37,440 --> 00:47:39,719
Speaker 1: final four or you know, get to a quarterfinal and

983
00:47:39,719 --> 00:47:42,120
Speaker 1: push a team to the penalties. We've seen it with

984
00:47:42,200 --> 00:47:47,359
Speaker 1: Whales and Turkey, Czech Republic, you know, decade ago. I'm

985
00:47:47,440 --> 00:47:49,680
Speaker 1: starting to fall for this Romania team and I don't

986
00:47:49,680 --> 00:47:53,160
Speaker 1: know if it's more about just like we haven't seen

987
00:47:53,200 --> 00:47:55,319
Speaker 1: them in a while. I'm sure there's no love lost

988
00:47:55,360 --> 00:47:58,280
Speaker 1: between Romania and sam because it was at Euro two thousand.

989
00:47:58,320 --> 00:48:01,480
Speaker 1: They upset England in the court finals in one of

990
00:48:01,480 --> 00:48:05,359
Speaker 1: the famous upsets of this tournament. But it has to

991
00:48:05,360 --> 00:48:08,680
Speaker 1: do with the group they are. Yeah, they're They're clearly

992
00:48:09,120 --> 00:48:14,760
Speaker 1: a tier below, many tiers below Belgium, below the Ukraine,

993
00:48:14,840 --> 00:48:17,200
Speaker 1: but they are better than Slovakia, and the gap between

994
00:48:17,239 --> 00:48:19,920
Speaker 1: them and the Ukraine really isn't that wide. And I

995
00:48:19,920 --> 00:48:22,920
Speaker 1: do think we're gonna see a lot of people looking

996
00:48:22,920 --> 00:48:26,120
Speaker 1: to back the Ukraine here for a lot of different reasons.

997
00:48:26,320 --> 00:48:28,200
Speaker 1: I mean, they do have a pretty high ceiling. But

998
00:48:28,760 --> 00:48:30,560
Speaker 1: the more I think about it, the more I like

999
00:48:30,600 --> 00:48:33,960
Speaker 1: this Romania team. They had a really good qualifying campaign.

1000
00:48:34,360 --> 00:48:36,840
Speaker 1: As we said, they finished ahead of Switzerland. The group

1001
00:48:37,120 --> 00:48:40,000
Speaker 1: wasn't all that strong, but as BJ noted before, you

1002
00:48:40,000 --> 00:48:41,360
Speaker 1: got to beat the teams in front of you. Plus

1003
00:48:41,400 --> 00:48:43,480
Speaker 1: they're Romania, so it's not like they're one of the

1004
00:48:43,480 --> 00:48:45,480
Speaker 1: teams in that group that you'd be. They're not. It's

1005
00:48:45,520 --> 00:48:48,440
Speaker 1: not like Netherlands walking through that group, right. It's Romania

1006
00:48:48,480 --> 00:48:50,480
Speaker 1: doing it. It's not. It's that's a team showing that

1007
00:48:50,480 --> 00:48:52,879
Speaker 1: they're taking a step up. They do have some talent here,

1008
00:48:52,960 --> 00:48:55,000
Speaker 1: They've got a good center back pair. I don't expect

1009
00:48:55,040 --> 00:48:57,759
Speaker 1: them to be a team that's going to take all

1010
00:48:57,760 --> 00:48:59,560
Speaker 1: that many risks, kind of the opposite of what I

1011
00:48:59,600 --> 00:49:01,560
Speaker 1: was saying Serbia. I think this team is going to

1012
00:49:01,600 --> 00:49:03,799
Speaker 1: show up and look to grind out points and get

1013
00:49:03,840 --> 00:49:08,560
Speaker 1: through rather than just show up and try to throw

1014
00:49:08,560 --> 00:49:11,240
Speaker 1: teams off with the way they play. So I actually

1015
00:49:11,239 --> 00:49:14,640
Speaker 1: think Romania is an interesting team to watch here. I

1016
00:49:14,760 --> 00:49:19,240
Speaker 1: like Belgium Romania as another leg of my round robin.

1017
00:49:19,320 --> 00:49:21,600
Speaker 1: In the dual forecast, it's close to four to one

1018
00:49:21,880 --> 00:49:25,040
Speaker 1: plus three eighty and I do think that seven to

1019
00:49:25,080 --> 00:49:29,040
Speaker 1: one on Romania to be eliminated in the quarterfinals is

1020
00:49:29,640 --> 00:49:31,560
Speaker 1: another bet, because I do think they could be one

1021
00:49:31,600 --> 00:49:33,879
Speaker 1: of those momentum teams like we saw with Whales. We've

1022
00:49:33,880 --> 00:49:36,799
Speaker 1: seen in this tournament time and time again, when these

1023
00:49:36,800 --> 00:49:39,000
Speaker 1: teams get through that group stage and that kind of

1024
00:49:39,000 --> 00:49:41,880
Speaker 1: pressure comes off that they already now they're playing with

1025
00:49:41,920 --> 00:49:44,600
Speaker 1: house money in the round of sixteen, they can pull

1026
00:49:44,640 --> 00:49:46,719
Speaker 1: another upset, especially if they play the style of soccer

1027
00:49:46,719 --> 00:49:48,520
Speaker 1: where they're just trying to drag teams to the business

1028
00:49:48,600 --> 00:49:51,200
Speaker 1: end of a match and win at one nil or

1029
00:49:51,239 --> 00:49:53,319
Speaker 1: take it in extra time or shootout. So I think

1030
00:49:53,360 --> 00:49:56,279
Speaker 1: that there there's a little bit too this Romania team

1031
00:49:56,760 --> 00:49:59,600
Speaker 1: BJA that I'm gonna be falling for, and I think

1032
00:49:59,640 --> 00:50:01,080
Speaker 1: maybe that if you've been listening to the show, you

1033
00:50:01,360 --> 00:50:03,680
Speaker 1: probably would would expect me to walk down this path

1034
00:50:03,719 --> 00:50:05,400
Speaker 1: with a team like this, and it's it's going to

1035
00:50:05,440 --> 00:50:05,960
Speaker 1: be Romania.

1036
00:50:07,280 --> 00:50:10,520
Speaker 2: I'm gonna have to disagree, Michael, because I actually like

1037
00:50:10,640 --> 00:50:13,680
Speaker 2: Romania not to advance at plus one twenty five. So

1038
00:50:14,800 --> 00:50:17,480
Speaker 2: I went back and watched their two matches against Switzerland qualifying.

1039
00:50:19,560 --> 00:50:24,239
Speaker 2: They primarily rely on just a few transition attacks of

1040
00:50:24,360 --> 00:50:27,160
Speaker 2: match to create most of their chances, and even when

1041
00:50:27,200 --> 00:50:30,720
Speaker 2: they played against some of the smaller teams there, build

1042
00:50:30,760 --> 00:50:33,320
Speaker 2: up is very slow. The rotations are slow.

1043
00:50:33,640 --> 00:50:36,320
Speaker 1: Yeah, Jose Mourinho Raania. Yeah, it's beautiful.

1044
00:50:36,719 --> 00:50:39,440
Speaker 2: It is beautiful in a sense if if that's where

1045
00:50:39,440 --> 00:50:43,560
Speaker 2: you find beauty in But they really struggled to even

1046
00:50:43,600 --> 00:50:45,600
Speaker 2: like just get the ball into the final third. And

1047
00:50:45,640 --> 00:50:48,560
Speaker 2: even against Switzerland, I know, they scored three goals and

1048
00:50:48,600 --> 00:50:50,880
Speaker 2: they beat them one nil at home and drew them

1049
00:50:50,920 --> 00:50:53,920
Speaker 2: to too. They had point eight expected goals total in

1050
00:50:54,000 --> 00:50:58,080
Speaker 2: those two matches. Even in one of these easy, incredibly

1051
00:50:58,120 --> 00:51:00,800
Speaker 2: easy qualifying groups, they allowed one point unexpected goles for

1052
00:51:00,840 --> 00:51:03,440
Speaker 2: ninety matach which is seventeenth in the Hero field. In

1053
00:51:03,520 --> 00:51:06,240
Speaker 2: terms of talent, I would say the second least talented

1054
00:51:06,239 --> 00:51:11,080
Speaker 2: team in this field behind Albania. Dragashin is the name

1055
00:51:11,120 --> 00:51:14,839
Speaker 2: I think people will recognize from this team. Outside of him,

1056
00:51:14,840 --> 00:51:17,719
Speaker 2: they don't have much talent playing across Europe. In fact,

1057
00:51:17,760 --> 00:51:21,720
Speaker 2: their attack as just one guy who plays who barely

1058
00:51:21,760 --> 00:51:24,759
Speaker 2: played for Alabas this season. Santasu is going to be

1059
00:51:24,840 --> 00:51:28,400
Speaker 2: their main attacking player. He's playing for a mid table

1060
00:51:28,400 --> 00:51:31,640
Speaker 2: club in the Saudi Pro League, and you know they

1061
00:51:31,680 --> 00:51:35,080
Speaker 2: are they benefited from being in the easiest group here

1062
00:51:36,040 --> 00:51:38,799
Speaker 2: where it's kind of like, hey, let's take your pick

1063
00:51:38,840 --> 00:51:42,320
Speaker 2: between Slovaki and Romania. They play in the very final match,

1064
00:51:42,360 --> 00:51:45,280
Speaker 2: so this bet really may come down to that final match.

1065
00:51:45,600 --> 00:51:47,560
Speaker 2: But there is a book that has odds out for

1066
00:51:47,640 --> 00:51:51,200
Speaker 2: the final third round match and that match is price

1067
00:51:51,280 --> 00:51:53,520
Speaker 2: is a straight pickum right now. So I don't agree

1068
00:51:53,560 --> 00:51:56,480
Speaker 2: with the fact that the market is pricing Romania at

1069
00:51:56,600 --> 00:51:59,839
Speaker 2: essentially plus one twenty five to not advance, but Slovakia

1070
00:52:00,160 --> 00:52:03,040
Speaker 2: like minus one seventy five, and at least Slovakia has

1071
00:52:03,120 --> 00:52:05,839
Speaker 2: a really good center back pairing and a really good midfielder.

1072
00:52:06,080 --> 00:52:07,800
Speaker 2: Like I know they aren't really that great of a

1073
00:52:07,840 --> 00:52:11,000
Speaker 2: team in terms of their attack. But just from the

1074
00:52:11,040 --> 00:52:15,239
Speaker 2: pricing standpoint, I don't really agree with that. I don't.

1075
00:52:15,320 --> 00:52:18,399
Speaker 2: This Romania team to me is just very untalented. They're

1076
00:52:18,440 --> 00:52:21,080
Speaker 2: not pleasing to watch. They also play a high line

1077
00:52:21,440 --> 00:52:23,920
Speaker 2: at times, like it's like from Washington, it's almost a

1078
00:52:23,920 --> 00:52:27,160
Speaker 2: little bit uni amoresque Michael, where it's like very very

1079
00:52:27,200 --> 00:52:31,040
Speaker 2: compact defensive structure, high line. Playing that against a team

1080
00:52:31,040 --> 00:52:33,520
Speaker 2: like Belgium or Ukraine is they're just gonna rip them apart.

1081
00:52:33,760 --> 00:52:36,880
Speaker 2: So and they've also benefited similar to a team like Hungary,

1082
00:52:37,160 --> 00:52:40,600
Speaker 2: they benefited pretty much the entire qualifying campaign playing in

1083
00:52:40,640 --> 00:52:43,839
Speaker 2: an even or positive game state. The second that they

1084
00:52:43,880 --> 00:52:45,840
Speaker 2: go behind and they have to press and they have

1085
00:52:45,920 --> 00:52:48,200
Speaker 2: to force the issue, that's where things are going to

1086
00:52:48,239 --> 00:52:49,879
Speaker 2: fall apart. And you could say the same thing about

1087
00:52:49,880 --> 00:52:54,280
Speaker 2: Slovakia as well. But for me, I don't think Romania

1088
00:52:54,360 --> 00:52:56,319
Speaker 2: is advancing and I like the price of plus one

1089
00:52:56,360 --> 00:52:57,760
Speaker 2: twenty five Sam.

1090
00:52:57,880 --> 00:53:00,080
Speaker 1: Anything else to add on a Romania the team of

1091
00:53:00,160 --> 00:53:01,040
Speaker 1: the tournament here.

1092
00:53:01,719 --> 00:53:05,640
Speaker 3: Yeah, just to kick you while you're down, Michael, I

1093
00:53:05,719 --> 00:53:09,279
Speaker 3: landed on this selection. It's Belgium Ukraine Group E dual

1094
00:53:09,320 --> 00:53:12,640
Speaker 3: forecast at plus one two five, simply because I think

1095
00:53:12,680 --> 00:53:16,080
Speaker 3: there's some distance between Belgium and Ukraine and the other

1096
00:53:16,120 --> 00:53:19,440
Speaker 3: two nations in the group Romanian Slovakia, so you've touched

1097
00:53:19,440 --> 00:53:21,040
Speaker 3: on them both. I don't really have too much to

1098
00:53:21,080 --> 00:53:24,319
Speaker 3: offer in terms of talking about those two nations, but

1099
00:53:24,480 --> 00:53:29,200
Speaker 3: the dual forecast market, as BG mentioned in PJ mentioned

1100
00:53:29,200 --> 00:53:32,320
Speaker 3: in Group A sorry, means it doesn't matter who finishes

1101
00:53:32,360 --> 00:53:34,440
Speaker 3: first or second, just as long as they're both in

1102
00:53:34,480 --> 00:53:35,800
Speaker 3: the top two at the end of play.

1103
00:53:36,320 --> 00:53:38,360
Speaker 4: And yeah, we've touched on it.

1104
00:53:38,400 --> 00:53:40,680
Speaker 3: I suppose GROUPIE and Group D are the two groups

1105
00:53:40,680 --> 00:53:42,480
Speaker 3: for me that I feel that we'll probably have two

1106
00:53:42,560 --> 00:53:46,240
Speaker 3: runaway nations in one and two, so I was instantly

1107
00:53:46,280 --> 00:53:49,640
Speaker 3: attracted to a dual forecast punt. I feel like this

1108
00:53:49,840 --> 00:53:52,640
Speaker 3: is a bet that maybe shouldn't be thought about too much.

1109
00:53:53,040 --> 00:53:55,719
Speaker 3: Belgium and Ukraine should be looking at Romanian Slovakia as

1110
00:53:55,800 --> 00:53:59,520
Speaker 3: must win games, whilst the tie with Belgium between Ukraine

1111
00:53:59,760 --> 00:54:03,080
Speaker 3: is and must not lose in either account so plus money.

1112
00:54:03,360 --> 00:54:05,560
Speaker 3: I think this is one of the standouts in Group

1113
00:54:05,600 --> 00:54:08,040
Speaker 3: E that maybe we shouldn't think too much about. But

1114
00:54:08,360 --> 00:54:10,480
Speaker 3: obviously Michael disagrees with that.

1115
00:54:10,719 --> 00:54:11,560
Speaker 4: Entirely. Yep.

1116
00:54:11,640 --> 00:54:13,920
Speaker 1: Yeah, I think this is a you know, in these tournaments,

1117
00:54:13,920 --> 00:54:14,880
Speaker 1: like you just get a team.

1118
00:54:14,719 --> 00:54:17,520
Speaker 2: Someone, Someone's going to be right unless Slovakia wins the screwp.

1119
00:54:17,360 --> 00:54:22,400
Speaker 1: Yeah, Slovakia is going to come out of head. Yeah yeah, Okay.

1120
00:54:22,719 --> 00:54:24,520
Speaker 1: That brings us to GROUPF and this is the tournament.

1121
00:54:24,680 --> 00:54:26,360
Speaker 1: This is the group of the tournament that I think

1122
00:54:26,640 --> 00:54:31,839
Speaker 1: you could argue has the most pass pathways. Uh, there's

1123
00:54:31,880 --> 00:54:33,879
Speaker 1: so much hype around this Portugal team and you look

1124
00:54:33,880 --> 00:54:36,439
Speaker 1: at it on paper, similar to what Sam was saying

1125
00:54:36,719 --> 00:54:38,799
Speaker 1: about England, like that the talent is there, that the

1126
00:54:39,160 --> 00:54:41,239
Speaker 1: it's going to be really really hard to stop them

1127
00:54:41,239 --> 00:54:44,080
Speaker 1: from scoring. But there is the Roberto Martinez factor. I

1128
00:54:44,080 --> 00:54:47,759
Speaker 1: actually think, uh, you know that really looms large here.

1129
00:54:49,040 --> 00:54:51,720
Speaker 1: What is there all that much that's different from the

1130
00:54:51,760 --> 00:54:54,520
Speaker 1: way that this Portugal team is set up from that

1131
00:54:54,640 --> 00:54:58,239
Speaker 1: his Belgium teams? No, no, right, That's why I'm trying

1132
00:54:58,239 --> 00:55:01,720
Speaker 1: to figure out when we will get It's a manager stuff,

1133
00:55:01,960 --> 00:55:05,360
Speaker 1: you know, why they hired him or whatever, But to me,

1134
00:55:05,440 --> 00:55:10,600
Speaker 1: that completely obliterates the like the gap between the floor

1135
00:55:10,600 --> 00:55:13,240
Speaker 1: and the ceiling for Portugal, right, like, yeah, they could

1136
00:55:14,360 --> 00:55:17,640
Speaker 1: completely outshine everybody in this field and go and win

1137
00:55:17,680 --> 00:55:20,240
Speaker 1: this tournament and nobody would be surprised. The odds suggests

1138
00:55:20,239 --> 00:55:22,600
Speaker 1: that they should be one of the favorites on talent alone.

1139
00:55:23,000 --> 00:55:25,440
Speaker 1: It didn't matter. I don't care if nobody's in the dugout.

1140
00:55:25,440 --> 00:55:28,239
Speaker 1: Like this team could absolutely run run the show at

1141
00:55:28,239 --> 00:55:31,600
Speaker 1: this tournament. But the problem is they could also be

1142
00:55:31,640 --> 00:55:36,439
Speaker 1: set up so crazily by Martinez that the floor could

1143
00:55:36,480 --> 00:55:38,760
Speaker 1: just come out and this team could you fall apart.

1144
00:55:39,040 --> 00:55:40,799
Speaker 1: So I do think bj you're you're kind of walking

1145
00:55:40,840 --> 00:55:43,080
Speaker 1: down the right path here with this, which is find

1146
00:55:43,080 --> 00:55:43,839
Speaker 1: a long shot here.

1147
00:55:44,200 --> 00:55:47,680
Speaker 2: Mm hmm. Yeah. So there's two bets like I'll get

1148
00:55:47,680 --> 00:55:50,160
Speaker 2: to you know, the checks in a second. But let's

1149
00:55:50,160 --> 00:55:54,440
Speaker 2: talk about Portugal. So Robert to Martinez. If you look

1150
00:55:54,440 --> 00:55:57,320
Speaker 2: at this on paper, you might think that Portugal is

1151
00:55:57,360 --> 00:55:59,680
Speaker 2: like the best team ever created. What they didn't qualifying

1152
00:56:00,200 --> 00:56:02,800
Speaker 2: thirty eight goals one all ten matches only allowed to

1153
00:56:02,920 --> 00:56:06,640
Speaker 2: the two goals they allowed were just absolute screamers from

1154
00:56:06,760 --> 00:56:09,960
Speaker 2: way outside the box by Slovakia. Outside of that, they

1155
00:56:09,960 --> 00:56:14,680
Speaker 2: didn't allow a goal. But from watching Roberts Martinez the

1156
00:56:14,680 --> 00:56:19,560
Speaker 2: matches against Slovakia, he was constantly trying to change tactics

1157
00:56:19,560 --> 00:56:22,239
Speaker 2: from this, to that, to this to that. If he

1158
00:56:22,320 --> 00:56:24,319
Speaker 2: tries to do that in this group, I think he's

1159
00:56:24,360 --> 00:56:26,520
Speaker 2: going to fall flat on his face. And I think

1160
00:56:26,520 --> 00:56:28,399
Speaker 2: he has a real dilemma in their midfield of who

1161
00:56:28,400 --> 00:56:30,440
Speaker 2: we actually starts because of the opponents that they're going

1162
00:56:30,480 --> 00:56:34,240
Speaker 2: to face the Czech Republic. Yes, from a talent perspective,

1163
00:56:34,239 --> 00:56:36,720
Speaker 2: you could look at them on paper and you could say, well,

1164
00:56:36,760 --> 00:56:39,319
Speaker 2: maybe they're not that good, but guess what, they're going

1165
00:56:39,400 --> 00:56:40,839
Speaker 2: to give it a go. They had the most high

1166
00:56:40,920 --> 00:56:45,640
Speaker 2: recoveries of anybody during the Euro qualifying. They are going

1167
00:56:45,680 --> 00:56:48,080
Speaker 2: to press, they are going to force the issue, and

1168
00:56:48,160 --> 00:56:51,319
Speaker 2: Portugal did not play a single team during qualifying that

1169
00:56:51,320 --> 00:56:54,480
Speaker 2: applied any ball pressure. So with the guys that Portugal have,

1170
00:56:54,719 --> 00:56:58,440
Speaker 2: from from Fernance to Silva to Rinaldo to all the

1171
00:56:58,440 --> 00:57:01,320
Speaker 2: talent that you talk about, Yeah, these guys are incredible

1172
00:57:01,360 --> 00:57:04,000
Speaker 2: when they're not being pressed and they're able to make

1173
00:57:04,000 --> 00:57:07,280
Speaker 2: passes freely. What teams are just playing low blocks. Turkey

1174
00:57:07,360 --> 00:57:09,719
Speaker 2: is in the same respect that they are going to

1175
00:57:09,760 --> 00:57:12,120
Speaker 2: press and they are going to force the issue as well.

1176
00:57:12,760 --> 00:57:15,560
Speaker 2: So what does this Portugal team look like when they

1177
00:57:15,600 --> 00:57:18,680
Speaker 2: have to face somebody who's going to press them high.

1178
00:57:18,760 --> 00:57:21,560
Speaker 2: They're pretty bad against Slovenia and a friendly where they

1179
00:57:21,560 --> 00:57:23,720
Speaker 2: had to face team that was actually decent in transition,

1180
00:57:24,760 --> 00:57:29,240
Speaker 2: Czech Republic. Also during qualifying they did finish second behind Albania.

1181
00:57:29,520 --> 00:57:33,160
Speaker 2: They played the entire qualifying without their main striker Patrick Schick,

1182
00:57:33,640 --> 00:57:35,480
Speaker 2: like they had nobody up top and they were pretty

1183
00:57:35,520 --> 00:57:38,080
Speaker 2: much relying on set pieces to get most of it done.

1184
00:57:38,320 --> 00:57:39,960
Speaker 2: So they are a team that I think can really

1185
00:57:40,000 --> 00:57:42,880
Speaker 2: improve in this tournament. And as far as Turkey is concerned,

1186
00:57:42,880 --> 00:57:47,720
Speaker 2: Turkey made a managerial change to Montanelli halfway through qualifying

1187
00:57:47,960 --> 00:57:50,880
Speaker 2: and the performance has just instantly got better. He's kind of,

1188
00:57:51,000 --> 00:57:52,760
Speaker 2: you know, he's an Italian manager. He spent a lot

1189
00:57:52,800 --> 00:57:55,920
Speaker 2: of time managing in Syria. A managed out of my

1190
00:57:56,000 --> 00:57:58,720
Speaker 2: Deersport in the Turkish super League and brought them up

1191
00:57:58,760 --> 00:58:01,880
Speaker 2: to really big heights. Now taking over the Turkish national team,

1192
00:58:02,040 --> 00:58:04,280
Speaker 2: He's got a little Deservey in him, where he wants

1193
00:58:04,320 --> 00:58:06,360
Speaker 2: to build out of the back, but create a transition

1194
00:58:06,400 --> 00:58:09,280
Speaker 2: opportunity from that. He's not as rigid as Deserbi is

1195
00:58:09,280 --> 00:58:10,720
Speaker 2: of like we're gonna play at the back and we're

1196
00:58:10,720 --> 00:58:12,880
Speaker 2: going to pass the ball short. He wants to get

1197
00:58:12,880 --> 00:58:15,880
Speaker 2: into transition moments and play very direct, using building out

1198
00:58:15,880 --> 00:58:18,080
Speaker 2: of the back as the structure of that. And Turkey

1199
00:58:18,120 --> 00:58:21,000
Speaker 2: has a lot of talented attackers that can get forward

1200
00:58:21,000 --> 00:58:23,760
Speaker 2: as well, so I don't think it's really straightforward here

1201
00:58:23,760 --> 00:58:28,520
Speaker 2: for Portugal. And also Ronaldo he's just as selfish as

1202
00:58:28,520 --> 00:58:30,600
Speaker 2: ever and his form is not as good as it's

1203
00:58:30,600 --> 00:58:32,680
Speaker 2: been in years past. If you remember at the last

1204
00:58:32,680 --> 00:58:35,360
Speaker 2: World Cup, he threw a big fit because they started

1205
00:58:35,600 --> 00:58:37,360
Speaker 2: Gunsali Ramos up top and he had a hat trick

1206
00:58:37,400 --> 00:58:40,439
Speaker 2: against Switzerland. Ronaldo's going to start up top every single

1207
00:58:40,520 --> 00:58:42,920
Speaker 2: match and he's going to take every single shot for Portugal,

1208
00:58:43,080 --> 00:58:44,680
Speaker 2: and he's not as good inform as he's been in

1209
00:58:44,760 --> 00:58:47,120
Speaker 2: years past. He averaged five point seven shots per night

1210
00:58:47,200 --> 00:58:53,960
Speaker 2: in qualifying, So Czech Republic first, Turkey second. Exact finishing

1211
00:58:54,080 --> 00:58:58,479
Speaker 2: order is thirty three to one. I love that. That's

1212
00:58:58,720 --> 00:59:00,439
Speaker 2: one of my favorite long shots during the group stage.

1213
00:59:00,480 --> 00:59:02,560
Speaker 2: Also like Checker Public to advance it minus one thirty

1214
00:59:02,600 --> 00:59:05,520
Speaker 2: seven because you do have a clear bottom end team

1215
00:59:05,520 --> 00:59:09,080
Speaker 2: here in Georgia who every team in this group should beat.

1216
00:59:09,360 --> 00:59:12,160
Speaker 2: So those are my two bets for Group F.

1217
00:59:12,880 --> 00:59:14,040
Speaker 4: That is brave.

1218
00:59:14,480 --> 00:59:17,560
Speaker 3: I've not got anything as bold as that. But I

1219
00:59:17,600 --> 00:59:20,640
Speaker 3: do have a thirty three to one shot in Bernardo

1220
00:59:20,680 --> 00:59:23,080
Speaker 3: Silver to get the most assist in the tournament. So

1221
00:59:23,640 --> 00:59:26,960
Speaker 3: Portugal have lost once under Robseal Martinez, and that was

1222
00:59:27,000 --> 00:59:29,640
Speaker 3: when Bernardo Silver wasn't in the squad at all, against

1223
00:59:29,640 --> 00:59:31,919
Speaker 3: Slovenia in a friendly in March. They've they've won every

1224
00:59:31,920 --> 00:59:34,880
Speaker 3: other game under Martinez. Now I'm not saying that's a

1225
00:59:34,960 --> 00:59:38,320
Speaker 3: direct correlation, and the result didn't mean too much obviously

1226
00:59:38,320 --> 00:59:40,760
Speaker 3: it was a friendly. But managers remember these things and

1227
00:59:41,120 --> 00:59:43,400
Speaker 3: you want your best players playing in your biggest matches.

1228
00:59:43,440 --> 00:59:45,840
Speaker 3: And I think Silver gets close to playing every minute

1229
00:59:45,880 --> 00:59:48,560
Speaker 3: of every game at the Euros unless the game's won

1230
00:59:48,800 --> 00:59:51,760
Speaker 3: and Martinez can can take him off. So I just

1231
00:59:51,760 --> 00:59:54,120
Speaker 3: think he's so important to this Portugal side as he

1232
00:59:54,200 --> 00:59:56,840
Speaker 3: is the man city. He offers a wealth of experience

1233
00:59:56,840 --> 00:59:59,480
Speaker 3: at the very highest level and he reaches the loftiest

1234
00:59:59,480 --> 01:00:02,480
Speaker 3: standards after week after week on a football pitch. The

1235
01:00:02,560 --> 01:00:05,680
Speaker 3: thing is he's not just so good going forward. He'll

1236
01:00:05,720 --> 01:00:08,280
Speaker 3: get stuck in defensively, he'll help out the right back

1237
01:00:08,320 --> 01:00:11,720
Speaker 3: on his side. He's largely press resistant and he'll always

1238
01:00:11,720 --> 01:00:14,080
Speaker 3: show for the ball no matter what. So he's vital

1239
01:00:14,160 --> 01:00:17,560
Speaker 3: to this Portuguese team, and I don't think geting minutes

1240
01:00:17,680 --> 01:00:21,360
Speaker 3: is a problem despite the backlog of Portuguese forwards available.

1241
01:00:21,640 --> 01:00:23,840
Speaker 3: So he's either going to play in a three man

1242
01:00:23,880 --> 01:00:25,920
Speaker 3: midfield lways going to play on the right of a

1243
01:00:25,960 --> 01:00:28,960
Speaker 3: front three, but I'd maybe lean towards a deeper role

1244
01:00:29,200 --> 01:00:31,960
Speaker 3: just because of how many options of Portugal have on

1245
01:00:32,040 --> 01:00:34,160
Speaker 3: their hands. If it was up to me, I'd probably

1246
01:00:34,160 --> 01:00:37,080
Speaker 3: play him right at the front three. But regardless, especially

1247
01:00:37,080 --> 01:00:39,720
Speaker 3: in the group stage, I expect him to be further

1248
01:00:39,800 --> 01:00:42,320
Speaker 3: up the pitch, regardless of position, and operating in the

1249
01:00:42,320 --> 01:00:45,200
Speaker 3: final third to break down load blocks and be seeing

1250
01:00:45,200 --> 01:00:48,040
Speaker 3: feeding balls into the right winger or the striker, whoever

1251
01:00:48,040 --> 01:00:51,200
Speaker 3: that may be. He shouldn't be too far from the

1252
01:00:51,240 --> 01:00:54,000
Speaker 3: eighteen yard bocks for large spells. So if you look

1253
01:00:54,040 --> 01:00:57,640
Speaker 3: at him in the Premier League against Fulham in the

1254
01:00:57,680 --> 01:00:59,600
Speaker 3: third to last game in the Premier League season, he

1255
01:00:59,720 --> 01:01:02,280
Speaker 3: managed two assists in that game. That meant he had

1256
01:01:02,320 --> 01:01:04,880
Speaker 3: registered multiple assists in the Premier League game for the

1257
01:01:04,920 --> 01:01:07,720
Speaker 3: fifth time in a Man City shirt. Then two games later,

1258
01:01:08,040 --> 01:01:10,040
Speaker 3: on the final day of the season, he did exactly

1259
01:01:10,080 --> 01:01:12,480
Speaker 3: the same against west Ham and to make it his

1260
01:01:12,600 --> 01:01:15,080
Speaker 3: six occasion of picking up multiple assists in a.

1261
01:01:15,080 --> 01:01:15,880
Speaker 4: Premier League game.

1262
01:01:15,880 --> 01:01:18,840
Speaker 3: So only Kevin de Bryn and David Silva and rahiem

1263
01:01:18,880 --> 01:01:23,320
Speaker 3: Sterling have registered more assists for City than Bernardo Silver

1264
01:01:23,480 --> 01:01:25,160
Speaker 3: So I thought I may as well look at Portugal

1265
01:01:25,200 --> 01:01:29,800
Speaker 3: as well, and he managed well. He managed four assists

1266
01:01:29,800 --> 01:01:32,200
Speaker 3: in nine in qualifying. But he's also got the third

1267
01:01:32,240 --> 01:01:35,160
Speaker 3: most assist for the Portuguese national side in their history

1268
01:01:35,920 --> 01:01:39,520
Speaker 3: with twenty nine. So he's behind Ronaldo and one other.

1269
01:01:39,680 --> 01:01:45,480
Speaker 3: Can you fancy guessing who the other is? Legend uh Bigo? Yes,

1270
01:01:45,520 --> 01:01:48,640
Speaker 3: spot on, So there, Vigo and Ronaldo are both on

1271
01:01:48,680 --> 01:01:51,800
Speaker 3: forty six. So in a Portuguese setup where he's very

1272
01:01:51,880 --> 01:01:54,680
Speaker 3: important and he's likely to be one of the consistent

1273
01:01:54,720 --> 01:01:58,440
Speaker 3: starters where there's so much competition for places in a

1274
01:01:58,480 --> 01:02:00,720
Speaker 3: team where we expect to score a lot of goals

1275
01:02:00,760 --> 01:02:03,439
Speaker 3: and lay on a lot of opportunities. Like you said,

1276
01:02:03,520 --> 01:02:07,000
Speaker 3: Ronaldo shoots about twenty times a game, so this looks

1277
01:02:07,040 --> 01:02:09,120
Speaker 3: like it as legs at thirty three to one, and

1278
01:02:09,160 --> 01:02:10,960
Speaker 3: he also takes corners as well, and there are some

1279
01:02:11,000 --> 01:02:14,160
Speaker 3: big boys in that Portugal team, so from set pieces

1280
01:02:13,920 --> 01:02:15,200
Speaker 3: that's an avenue as well.

1281
01:02:15,800 --> 01:02:18,000
Speaker 2: To add on to Sam's point, this is a great

1282
01:02:18,040 --> 01:02:20,160
Speaker 2: bet is that you know, Silva, like you mentioned, played

1283
01:02:20,160 --> 01:02:22,040
Speaker 2: a more central and maybe more of an out wide

1284
01:02:22,120 --> 01:02:24,280
Speaker 2: role because Fernanz is the one playing the middle role.

1285
01:02:24,560 --> 01:02:26,960
Speaker 2: When they were playing teams that played primarily, you know,

1286
01:02:27,000 --> 01:02:29,400
Speaker 2: low defensive blocks like Slovakia and all the other teams

1287
01:02:29,440 --> 01:02:34,360
Speaker 2: in their group, they prem primarily relied on utilizing Ronaldo

1288
01:02:34,400 --> 01:02:37,360
Speaker 2: warriors at his best, essentially cutbacks and process to him

1289
01:02:37,360 --> 01:02:39,400
Speaker 2: because he is so good at, you know, finding that

1290
01:02:39,480 --> 01:02:41,960
Speaker 2: space in the box, and Silva is a huge key

1291
01:02:42,000 --> 01:02:43,800
Speaker 2: to that. So that's a wonderful selection.

1292
01:02:43,560 --> 01:02:47,400
Speaker 1: Sam, Yeah, he's also sixty six to win a win

1293
01:02:47,400 --> 01:02:49,400
Speaker 1: player of the tournament. We'll get into like player futures later,

1294
01:02:49,440 --> 01:02:51,120
Speaker 1: but I think that's the way you'd want to play

1295
01:02:51,160 --> 01:02:55,800
Speaker 1: Portugal is rather than playing them in the team future market,

1296
01:02:55,800 --> 01:02:58,640
Speaker 1: because I don't think this number is going anywhere anyway,

1297
01:02:58,720 --> 01:03:00,800
Speaker 1: So like I would wait to see actually how they

1298
01:03:00,800 --> 01:03:03,440
Speaker 1: adapt to the tournament setting the pressure of having these

1299
01:03:03,480 --> 01:03:07,440
Speaker 1: expectations on them again under Martinez. And it's not like

1300
01:03:07,480 --> 01:03:09,440
Speaker 1: if they're expected to win the group, so they win

1301
01:03:09,480 --> 01:03:10,680
Speaker 1: the group. It's not like this number is going to

1302
01:03:10,760 --> 01:03:13,560
Speaker 1: get you know, creatored or anything. If you want to

1303
01:03:13,560 --> 01:03:16,320
Speaker 1: bet them to win the tournament. I would much rather

1304
01:03:16,440 --> 01:03:19,760
Speaker 1: before the tournament starts. Invest if you are into Portugal

1305
01:03:20,680 --> 01:03:22,160
Speaker 1: and you want to play into their ceiling a bit,

1306
01:03:22,720 --> 01:03:26,880
Speaker 1: A play like Silva to lead the tournament and assists

1307
01:03:26,880 --> 01:03:28,600
Speaker 1: at thirty three to one or sixty six to one

1308
01:03:28,640 --> 01:03:30,960
Speaker 1: as player the tournament is a way to go. So yeah,

1309
01:03:31,000 --> 01:03:33,040
Speaker 1: I think that's a good shout and a good one

1310
01:03:33,040 --> 01:03:36,360
Speaker 1: to close out that section of the show. All Right,

1311
01:03:37,000 --> 01:03:40,040
Speaker 1: we'll get into some long shots now. The only rule

1312
01:03:40,080 --> 01:03:42,320
Speaker 1: here for the three of us was you had to

1313
01:03:42,360 --> 01:03:45,520
Speaker 1: find something that was longer than twenty to one. Bjay,

1314
01:03:45,800 --> 01:03:46,640
Speaker 1: what did you come up with?

1315
01:03:47,240 --> 01:03:49,600
Speaker 2: Yeah, I have two eighty to long shots. One of

1316
01:03:49,640 --> 01:03:51,680
Speaker 2: them is Switzerland and one of them is Austria at

1317
01:03:51,720 --> 01:03:55,280
Speaker 2: eighty to one. So I already spoke about Switzerland having

1318
01:03:55,320 --> 01:03:59,600
Speaker 2: that key experience core together is really important at these

1319
01:03:59,640 --> 01:04:02,880
Speaker 2: Internets tournament, as they've proven at the last Heros. You know,

1320
01:04:02,920 --> 01:04:05,400
Speaker 2: they pulled off an upset against France. The path for

1321
01:04:05,440 --> 01:04:08,680
Speaker 2: them would be seeing essentially if they finished second, seeing

1322
01:04:08,720 --> 01:04:11,520
Speaker 2: England in the round of six round the quarterfinals. But

1323
01:04:11,600 --> 01:04:16,560
Speaker 2: here's what I'll also say is that Germany and Switzerland

1324
01:04:16,640 --> 01:04:18,960
Speaker 2: play each other in the final match. At the group stage.

1325
01:04:20,080 --> 01:04:23,360
Speaker 2: Crazier things have happened where we could get to a

1326
01:04:23,400 --> 01:04:27,680
Speaker 2: scenario where if England or France start to falter and

1327
01:04:27,760 --> 01:04:29,960
Speaker 2: it sets up where Germany is potentially going to be

1328
01:04:30,040 --> 01:04:32,120
Speaker 2: on the same side of the bracket as one of them.

1329
01:04:33,120 --> 01:04:34,840
Speaker 2: We saw Spain do it at the last World Cup

1330
01:04:34,880 --> 01:04:37,600
Speaker 2: and it's happened a couple of times. Jermany may let

1331
01:04:37,680 --> 01:04:40,360
Speaker 2: just Switzerland have it and try to find a better

1332
01:04:40,440 --> 01:04:42,880
Speaker 2: and try to get to a better place in the group.

1333
01:04:42,960 --> 01:04:46,400
Speaker 2: So we'll see what happens there. But as far as

1334
01:04:46,440 --> 01:04:49,200
Speaker 2: Switzerland's concerned, yes, they have the ability to upsetting about

1335
01:04:49,200 --> 01:04:52,480
Speaker 2: this core. Austria's path though, if they finished second in

1336
01:04:52,560 --> 01:04:56,160
Speaker 2: Group D, I think is amazing because they're going to

1337
01:04:56,200 --> 01:04:57,680
Speaker 2: get the second place team in Group B, which is

1338
01:04:57,760 --> 01:05:01,880
Speaker 2: most likely in be Ukraine. Again, they have this structure

1339
01:05:02,000 --> 01:05:05,680
Speaker 2: under Ragnik that can play really well against favorites. Then

1340
01:05:05,720 --> 01:05:08,160
Speaker 2: you get potentially Portugal in the quarterfinals, a team like

1341
01:05:08,160 --> 01:05:11,200
Speaker 2: I already mentioned who hasn't been pressed at all during qualifying,

1342
01:05:11,920 --> 01:05:15,160
Speaker 2: and then potentially playing Germany in the semi finals. So

1343
01:05:15,480 --> 01:05:18,000
Speaker 2: if you're looking for a long shot to win the tournament,

1344
01:05:18,960 --> 01:05:22,800
Speaker 2: Switzerland and Austria eighty to one are my two favorite ones.

1345
01:05:23,640 --> 01:05:23,840
Speaker 1: Yep.

1346
01:05:24,520 --> 01:05:26,560
Speaker 3: Yeah, So I don't want to go over a ground

1347
01:05:27,320 --> 01:05:30,920
Speaker 3: because I've already mentioned our fancy Germany in the outroid markets.

1348
01:05:31,320 --> 01:05:35,200
Speaker 3: This selection is Germany outright and Bape top goal scorer

1349
01:05:35,280 --> 01:05:39,920
Speaker 3: at forty to one. So this is basically pairing my

1350
01:05:40,000 --> 01:05:43,280
Speaker 3: two biggest fancies of the tournament and getting a forty

1351
01:05:43,320 --> 01:05:45,840
Speaker 3: to one price, which I think might go quite close.

1352
01:05:45,880 --> 01:05:50,000
Speaker 3: They should if all goes to plan and usually doesn't

1353
01:05:50,000 --> 01:05:53,000
Speaker 3: happen like that, they should meet in the final. So

1354
01:05:53,040 --> 01:05:55,280
Speaker 3: if they do meet in the final, this definitely has

1355
01:05:55,360 --> 01:05:57,640
Speaker 3: legs and I think I'll save the rest of the

1356
01:05:57,720 --> 01:06:01,560
Speaker 3: explanation for our next section, which is the top goal

1357
01:06:01,640 --> 01:06:03,280
Speaker 3: score prediction.

1358
01:06:03,800 --> 01:06:05,800
Speaker 1: You got it, and I talked about Serbia a lot.

1359
01:06:05,840 --> 01:06:08,320
Speaker 1: They're my favorite long shot in the futures market. The

1360
01:06:08,360 --> 01:06:11,280
Speaker 1: path is a little rough because of if they finished second,

1361
01:06:11,320 --> 01:06:13,120
Speaker 1: like it, it's a date with Germany and all likelihood

1362
01:06:13,120 --> 01:06:15,920
Speaker 1: in the round of sixteen. That said, you know, if

1363
01:06:15,920 --> 01:06:19,640
Speaker 1: they are somehow able to nick the group or finish

1364
01:06:19,720 --> 01:06:23,240
Speaker 1: third and get a lucky bounce or something, things open up.

1365
01:06:23,240 --> 01:06:24,880
Speaker 1: And I just like the fact that this team is

1366
01:06:24,960 --> 01:06:26,440
Speaker 1: going to show up and it's going to force you

1367
01:06:26,480 --> 01:06:29,000
Speaker 1: to adapt to their style rather than the other way around.

1368
01:06:29,160 --> 01:06:31,160
Speaker 1: They are going to go there and try to bully teams,

1369
01:06:32,200 --> 01:06:35,160
Speaker 1: cause chaos, and I think they're being a little overlooked

1370
01:06:35,240 --> 01:06:37,360
Speaker 1: because of the path. So I think eighty to one

1371
01:06:38,480 --> 01:06:40,640
Speaker 1: of teams in that range, I think Serbia's got the

1372
01:06:40,720 --> 01:06:44,240
Speaker 1: highest ceiling. Okay, that brings up. We're gonna get into

1373
01:06:44,240 --> 01:06:50,000
Speaker 1: some player futures and we will start with our golden boots. Sam,

1374
01:06:50,080 --> 01:06:52,000
Speaker 1: you talked about it, so you alluded to it. You

1375
01:06:52,000 --> 01:06:52,640
Speaker 1: can go first year.

1376
01:06:52,960 --> 01:06:56,000
Speaker 3: Yeah, just quickly, Michael, going back to the long shots,

1377
01:06:56,000 --> 01:06:57,720
Speaker 3: did you not fancy Romania.

1378
01:06:58,560 --> 01:07:02,400
Speaker 1: To win the tournament? Hey, you know what it'll take.

1379
01:07:02,440 --> 01:07:04,040
Speaker 1: It'll take a lot of self control for me not

1380
01:07:04,080 --> 01:07:07,400
Speaker 1: to have a little sprinkle on them, But I'd much rather.

1381
01:07:07,480 --> 01:07:10,040
Speaker 1: I think that to finish in the quarterfinals is almost

1382
01:07:10,520 --> 01:07:12,640
Speaker 1: akin to them winning the tournament, unless they play England,

1383
01:07:12,640 --> 01:07:14,880
Speaker 1: because they always beat England in the quarterfinals of these zeros,

1384
01:07:14,920 --> 01:07:20,400
Speaker 1: so maybe they come on forgetting. But yeah, look, I'm

1385
01:07:20,520 --> 01:07:23,360
Speaker 1: I'm infatuated by them. I can't wait for them to

1386
01:07:23,360 --> 01:07:25,400
Speaker 1: come out and zero zero their way, kind of like

1387
01:07:25,440 --> 01:07:28,200
Speaker 1: Northern Ireland in twenty sixteen to zero zero their way

1388
01:07:28,200 --> 01:07:29,600
Speaker 1: to the round of sixteen.

1389
01:07:30,160 --> 01:07:30,919
Speaker 4: Yeah, that was the best.

1390
01:07:31,000 --> 01:07:33,360
Speaker 1: That's that's my That's that's why I like I actually

1391
01:07:33,440 --> 01:07:34,840
Speaker 1: a lot. I know a lot of people think this

1392
01:07:35,160 --> 01:07:37,600
Speaker 1: format is like unpopular, but I love it because it

1393
01:07:37,640 --> 01:07:40,280
Speaker 1: gives a team the opportunity to literally show up and

1394
01:07:40,360 --> 01:07:42,160
Speaker 1: just shut it down and try to get through that way.

1395
01:07:42,200 --> 01:07:44,080
Speaker 1: And I think Romania is a team that will do that.

1396
01:07:44,360 --> 01:07:45,560
Speaker 4: Yeah, absolutely love it.

1397
01:07:45,600 --> 01:07:48,200
Speaker 3: Well, yeah, going back to the Golden Boot, I've gone

1398
01:07:48,240 --> 01:07:50,840
Speaker 3: really born here and I'm hanging my heart on the

1399
01:07:50,840 --> 01:07:53,800
Speaker 3: favorite in the button killing and buppy up plus four

1400
01:07:54,360 --> 01:07:55,400
Speaker 3: for fifty.

1401
01:07:56,120 --> 01:07:59,120
Speaker 4: Twenty three years old, just twenty three years old is crazy. Really.

1402
01:07:59,160 --> 01:08:02,960
Speaker 3: He's scored twelve World Cup goals in fourteen appearances at

1403
01:08:03,040 --> 01:08:05,640
Speaker 3: the two tournaments. He's got a hatchrick in the final,

1404
01:08:05,720 --> 01:08:08,280
Speaker 3: obviously of the last major tournament he was in in

1405
01:08:08,360 --> 01:08:11,840
Speaker 3: Qatar with France, and thirty three goals in seventy eight

1406
01:08:11,840 --> 01:08:15,400
Speaker 3: France games, five strikes behind Griesman, who's the leading French

1407
01:08:15,480 --> 01:08:19,400
Speaker 3: national goal scorer. So in his last Euros though he

1408
01:08:19,400 --> 01:08:22,799
Speaker 3: failed to score a goal, it was a poor tournament.

1409
01:08:23,120 --> 01:08:26,320
Speaker 3: He missed a penalty against Switzerland and around the sixteen

1410
01:08:26,840 --> 01:08:32,160
Speaker 3: so Germany twenty twenty four, his domestics future is sorted,

1411
01:08:33,200 --> 01:08:35,440
Speaker 3: that's no longer up in the air, so full focuses

1412
01:08:35,479 --> 01:08:38,200
Speaker 3: on France, and he's probably also out to impress Real

1413
01:08:38,240 --> 01:08:41,400
Speaker 3: Madrid fans a little and leave them salivating for his

1414
01:08:41,640 --> 01:08:46,160
Speaker 3: career upcoming career as a modern day galactico. So simply,

1415
01:08:46,200 --> 01:08:49,160
Speaker 3: there's just not another player I'd feel as confident in

1416
01:08:49,240 --> 01:08:52,439
Speaker 3: backing as killing Mbappe heading into the summer, hence his

1417
01:08:52,720 --> 01:08:56,040
Speaker 3: inclusion here in the podcast. He's just brilliant, isn't he.

1418
01:08:56,080 --> 01:08:58,680
Speaker 3: And I don't really have too much to say that's

1419
01:08:58,680 --> 01:09:00,840
Speaker 3: not already been said, but I think he's going to

1420
01:09:00,960 --> 01:09:05,040
Speaker 3: cherish another tournament where France need him to perform for

1421
01:09:05,080 --> 01:09:07,559
Speaker 3: any chance of winning silverware. He feels like that kind

1422
01:09:07,600 --> 01:09:10,160
Speaker 3: of person. He just wants to be the main man.

1423
01:09:10,240 --> 01:09:11,960
Speaker 3: He's got all the tools to be the main man,

1424
01:09:12,000 --> 01:09:14,760
Speaker 3: and he doesn't. He doesn't mind that kind of responsibility.

1425
01:09:14,800 --> 01:09:17,200
Speaker 3: A lot of players would will in a position like that,

1426
01:09:17,280 --> 01:09:20,320
Speaker 3: but Killing and Bappe flourishes. And if you're not one

1427
01:09:20,479 --> 01:09:22,840
Speaker 3: for better on favorites, then I've got a start here

1428
01:09:22,880 --> 01:09:26,160
Speaker 3: for you that you might enjoy. Since nineteen ninety four,

1429
01:09:26,680 --> 01:09:28,920
Speaker 3: ten of the twenty four players to win the Golden

1430
01:09:28,920 --> 01:09:32,000
Speaker 3: Boot at the World Cup or European Championship have been

1431
01:09:32,000 --> 01:09:35,519
Speaker 3: priced at fifty to one or larger. Seven of those

1432
01:09:35,520 --> 01:09:38,400
Speaker 3: players were one hundred to one or bigger. So if

1433
01:09:38,439 --> 01:09:40,920
Speaker 3: you're not a favorites backer, then you know I wouldn't

1434
01:09:40,920 --> 01:09:42,760
Speaker 3: put you off something a little bit bigger. But just

1435
01:09:42,800 --> 01:09:46,320
Speaker 3: for me and Bape at a fairly decent price. I

1436
01:09:46,320 --> 01:09:47,680
Speaker 3: think France are going to go all the way, like

1437
01:09:47,720 --> 01:09:50,479
Speaker 3: I said, I think they'll do They'll do England and

1438
01:09:50,479 --> 01:09:52,320
Speaker 3: meet Germany in the finals. So he's going to get

1439
01:09:52,320 --> 01:09:57,200
Speaker 3: the games required to hit four, five, six, seven goals,

1440
01:09:58,000 --> 01:10:00,320
Speaker 3: and yeah, I wouldn't be surprised to see him it.

1441
01:10:00,880 --> 01:10:04,559
Speaker 1: Yeah, that's a great stat the last Euros Bja who

1442
01:10:04,640 --> 01:10:07,760
Speaker 1: was excruciatingly close to hitting one of those one hundred

1443
01:10:07,760 --> 01:10:11,840
Speaker 1: and fifty to one shots with Patrick schick nicky because

1444
01:10:11,840 --> 01:10:13,880
Speaker 1: of the assist tie brand.

1445
01:10:14,000 --> 01:10:16,400
Speaker 2: That's and that's gonna that's gonna. That's gonna lead to

1446
01:10:16,439 --> 01:10:20,639
Speaker 2: my point here, Michael, Before you bet these markets, make

1447
01:10:20,680 --> 01:10:23,720
Speaker 2: sure you realize what the title of the market is,

1448
01:10:24,200 --> 01:10:27,280
Speaker 2: because I've seen some markets that say Golden Boot winner,

1449
01:10:27,320 --> 01:10:30,080
Speaker 2: and I've seen some markets that say top goal scorer.

1450
01:10:30,120 --> 01:10:32,000
Speaker 2: So at the last euros when I hit Patrick Shick,

1451
01:10:32,000 --> 01:10:33,880
Speaker 2: I got half the price. Essentially it got cut in

1452
01:10:33,920 --> 01:10:37,080
Speaker 2: half because he tied Ronaldo technically technically was the top

1453
01:10:37,120 --> 01:10:41,479
Speaker 2: goal scorer. So make sure you compare prices. If it's

1454
01:10:41,520 --> 01:10:44,479
Speaker 2: golden boot, you better be getting a pretty significant price,

1455
01:10:44,560 --> 01:10:47,800
Speaker 2: better than an actual top goal scorer. Because since this

1456
01:10:47,880 --> 01:10:51,439
Speaker 2: tournament is only so a few matches, the probability of

1457
01:10:51,560 --> 01:10:54,240
Speaker 2: tying at the top is much larger than it would

1458
01:10:54,240 --> 01:10:58,040
Speaker 2: be over a thirty eight match season. So in that aspect,

1459
01:10:58,720 --> 01:11:01,479
Speaker 2: Michael I like Ukaku at twenty to one to be

1460
01:11:01,520 --> 01:11:04,280
Speaker 2: the top goal scorer of this tournament. Lukaku led everybody

1461
01:11:04,360 --> 01:11:07,160
Speaker 2: in qualifying with fourteen goals in six point six nineties,

1462
01:11:07,479 --> 01:11:10,200
Speaker 2: but he's getting elite shot production at the Belgian level

1463
01:11:10,320 --> 01:11:14,400
Speaker 2: four point four shots per ninety And you know, Dominico

1464
01:11:14,479 --> 01:11:18,320
Speaker 2: Tedesco I think is a pretty decent manager. I wouldn't

1465
01:11:18,400 --> 01:11:21,120
Speaker 2: rate him as a top tier manager. But football can

1466
01:11:21,160 --> 01:11:25,360
Speaker 2: be a simple game sometimes and Belgium's approach is just

1467
01:11:25,439 --> 01:11:27,640
Speaker 2: get the ball to Lukaku. Get the ball to your

1468
01:11:27,640 --> 01:11:29,880
Speaker 2: best goal scorer in any way possible, whether it be

1469
01:11:29,920 --> 01:11:33,120
Speaker 2: across in the half space. You know, Obviously, Lukaku is

1470
01:11:33,120 --> 01:11:37,799
Speaker 2: one of the best at pinning defenders in and pivoting

1471
01:11:37,840 --> 01:11:39,760
Speaker 2: right off of them. He does that really well in

1472
01:11:39,760 --> 01:11:43,360
Speaker 2: the half space. But the biggest thing is Lukaku is

1473
01:11:43,360 --> 01:11:46,599
Speaker 2: in the easiest group, as we already identified. In terms

1474
01:11:46,640 --> 01:11:49,719
Speaker 2: of expected goles allowed for ninety minutes, Romania was seventeenth

1475
01:11:49,720 --> 01:11:53,840
Speaker 2: and qualifying, Slovakia was twenty fourth and Ukraine was nineteenth.

1476
01:11:54,080 --> 01:11:56,679
Speaker 2: History has shown that you just need five or six

1477
01:11:56,760 --> 01:12:00,280
Speaker 2: goals to win this award. Greasman did with six in

1478
01:12:00,320 --> 01:12:05,360
Speaker 2: twenty sixteen, Ronaldo and schick Bull had five in twenty twenty.

1479
01:12:05,800 --> 01:12:07,519
Speaker 2: In addition to that, I mean he is the full

1480
01:12:07,560 --> 01:12:10,519
Speaker 2: point of Belgian toa tackle already mentioned, he's getting one

1481
01:12:10,520 --> 01:12:13,120
Speaker 2: point four more shots for ninety than the next closest

1482
01:12:13,120 --> 01:12:17,000
Speaker 2: guy on Belgium. So at twenty to one, with an

1483
01:12:17,040 --> 01:12:19,679
Speaker 2: easy path to the round of sixteen and potentially the quarters,

1484
01:12:20,040 --> 01:12:22,640
Speaker 2: he's gonna get three Z matches and go qualifying. He's

1485
01:12:22,680 --> 01:12:24,600
Speaker 2: going to get hopefully a pretty decent match in the

1486
01:12:24,680 --> 01:12:27,559
Speaker 2: round of sixteen, so there are four matches against pretty

1487
01:12:27,600 --> 01:12:31,200
Speaker 2: average to below average defenses where he can really score.

1488
01:12:31,280 --> 01:12:33,759
Speaker 2: He's not been in great form for Roma this season,

1489
01:12:34,320 --> 01:12:36,320
Speaker 2: but He's been really good for him for Belgium, and

1490
01:12:36,360 --> 01:12:40,000
Speaker 2: guess what hopefully he makes up from that disaster against

1491
01:12:40,000 --> 01:12:42,200
Speaker 2: Croatia at the last game of the World Cup where

1492
01:12:42,200 --> 01:12:43,920
Speaker 2: he missed. I don't know how many chances in front

1493
01:12:43,960 --> 01:12:44,240
Speaker 2: of that.

1494
01:12:44,479 --> 01:12:46,080
Speaker 1: Yeah, I don't. I don't mind that one at all.

1495
01:12:46,640 --> 01:12:49,040
Speaker 1: We talked about Marada. Obviously we're gonna be playing him

1496
01:12:49,040 --> 01:12:50,680
Speaker 1: at thirty three to one. We don't need to get

1497
01:12:50,800 --> 01:12:52,920
Speaker 1: We'll be talking about him throughout the whole tournament as well.

1498
01:12:54,040 --> 01:12:55,600
Speaker 1: I do think there's a little bit of value on

1499
01:12:55,600 --> 01:12:57,639
Speaker 1: Phil Foden at thirty to one, and I think it's

1500
01:12:57,680 --> 01:13:01,240
Speaker 1: just because everyone's going to be back in Harry Kane,

1501
01:13:01,240 --> 01:13:04,360
Speaker 1: and I know that that makes it a little more difficult.

1502
01:13:05,400 --> 01:13:09,080
Speaker 1: Kane's present makes it difficult for Foden to come out

1503
01:13:09,080 --> 01:13:12,519
Speaker 1: ahead in this market. But he was so so damn

1504
01:13:12,640 --> 01:13:14,840
Speaker 1: good for City down the stretch that if he can

1505
01:13:14,880 --> 01:13:17,360
Speaker 1: just carry that for him into it into this tournament,

1506
01:13:17,680 --> 01:13:22,680
Speaker 1: he's absolutely a danger here. I know that the I

1507
01:13:22,720 --> 01:13:26,160
Speaker 1: was talking about Serbius chances in that group and to

1508
01:13:26,240 --> 01:13:28,880
Speaker 1: make some noise further in the tournament, but it's they

1509
01:13:28,880 --> 01:13:32,840
Speaker 1: shouldn't be held against anybody here in Group C. So

1510
01:13:32,920 --> 01:13:38,040
Speaker 1: I think that England should be scoring plenty the maybe

1511
01:13:38,240 --> 01:13:40,400
Speaker 1: if Southgate wants to manage Kane a little bit, keep

1512
01:13:40,479 --> 01:13:42,799
Speaker 1: him fresh. I think that there's a path for Foden

1513
01:13:43,200 --> 01:13:46,720
Speaker 1: and a guy that Sam we'll talk about furthermore in

1514
01:13:46,720 --> 01:13:50,120
Speaker 1: a little bit. But for Ukraine ur Tim dove Bick,

1515
01:13:50,120 --> 01:13:51,400
Speaker 1: and if you want to say this is a little

1516
01:13:51,400 --> 01:13:53,480
Speaker 1: bit of a hedge against my love for these Romanians,

1517
01:13:53,840 --> 01:13:56,360
Speaker 1: go right ahead. But he's sixty six to one to

1518
01:13:57,200 --> 01:14:01,519
Speaker 1: get to lead the tournament and goals. This is, to me,

1519
01:14:01,600 --> 01:14:04,040
Speaker 1: is the Patrick Shick kind of bet where if you're

1520
01:14:04,040 --> 01:14:05,840
Speaker 1: getting to four, this guy can get to four. He

1521
01:14:05,880 --> 01:14:08,040
Speaker 1: can get to five and really give this bets some legs.

1522
01:14:08,200 --> 01:14:10,120
Speaker 1: He can outrun these odds. He had twenty four and

1523
01:14:10,160 --> 01:14:12,880
Speaker 1: thirty six for Girona in La Liga, and you look

1524
01:14:12,880 --> 01:14:16,200
Speaker 1: at the group even Portugal, right like Roberto Martinez is

1525
01:14:16,240 --> 01:14:18,519
Speaker 1: not going to set up Portugal to keep anybody off

1526
01:14:18,560 --> 01:14:20,800
Speaker 1: of the scoreboard. So I think Ukraine can if they

1527
01:14:20,840 --> 01:14:22,439
Speaker 1: can find a goal or two there, they should be

1528
01:14:22,439 --> 01:14:25,640
Speaker 1: able to score against Slovakia. Nobody scoring against Romania, so

1529
01:14:25,680 --> 01:14:27,800
Speaker 1: hopefully he gets enough against those first two guys. But

1530
01:14:28,320 --> 01:14:30,760
Speaker 1: I think it's sixty six to one. He's absolutely worth

1531
01:14:31,080 --> 01:14:34,320
Speaker 1: a bet here, Sam, and we can get into what

1532
01:14:34,360 --> 01:14:36,280
Speaker 1: else do you have as we get into any other

1533
01:14:36,560 --> 01:14:38,760
Speaker 1: futures that we've got that we want to play.

1534
01:14:38,920 --> 01:14:40,920
Speaker 3: I think sixty six to one is a great price,

1535
01:14:41,240 --> 01:14:43,840
Speaker 3: but I think maybe like ten days AGO's one hundred

1536
01:14:43,840 --> 01:14:45,800
Speaker 3: and fifty to one. I'll see the podcast has a

1537
01:14:45,800 --> 01:14:47,400
Speaker 3: bit laid down the road, so we didn't get that,

1538
01:14:47,560 --> 01:14:50,120
Speaker 3: but sixty six is, yeah, it's still half decent. And

1539
01:14:50,400 --> 01:14:53,360
Speaker 3: my bet here is topic over one point five goals.

1540
01:14:53,360 --> 01:14:55,479
Speaker 3: You can get that at plus one five zero. And

1541
01:14:55,560 --> 01:14:58,080
Speaker 3: if you're a fan of Laligo, you've watched Laaliga at

1542
01:14:58,080 --> 01:15:01,640
Speaker 3: all this season, then os And will need no introduction.

1543
01:15:02,040 --> 01:15:04,080
Speaker 3: No one scored more than him in a Spanish top

1544
01:15:04,120 --> 01:15:06,800
Speaker 3: flight twenty four goes in thirty two starts, I think

1545
01:15:06,840 --> 01:15:09,040
Speaker 3: thirty six periances overall. Like you mentioned, it's called a

1546
01:15:09,080 --> 01:15:11,479
Speaker 3: hat trick in a seven zero win against Grenada on

1547
01:15:11,520 --> 01:15:13,920
Speaker 3: the final day to get the Golden boot and only

1548
01:15:13,960 --> 01:15:17,479
Speaker 3: four players if you're looking at the top five European leagues, Kane, Garassi,

1549
01:15:17,600 --> 01:15:20,479
Speaker 3: Halland and then Bappi has called more domestic goals than dopics.

1550
01:15:20,479 --> 01:15:23,960
Speaker 3: Twenty four of this campaign, so Jirona and Ukraine's from

1551
01:15:23,960 --> 01:15:27,599
Speaker 3: Anne heads to Germany in supreme form. Leading the line

1552
01:15:27,640 --> 01:15:30,320
Speaker 3: of this Ukrainian side is the main focal point. And

1553
01:15:30,320 --> 01:15:33,320
Speaker 3: he's a penalty taker too, which obviously helps.

1554
01:15:33,880 --> 01:15:35,040
Speaker 4: And I think.

1555
01:15:34,960 --> 01:15:37,280
Speaker 3: Ukraine are just a team that's going to cause a

1556
01:15:37,320 --> 01:15:40,639
Speaker 3: lot of headaches, especially topic he's big, powerful, he's quite

1557
01:15:40,680 --> 01:15:42,759
Speaker 3: nippy once he gets going as well. He's a handful

1558
01:15:42,760 --> 01:15:45,880
Speaker 3: in the box and now he's showing a developing skill

1559
01:15:45,960 --> 01:15:48,720
Speaker 3: set of finding the net regularly in one of the

1560
01:15:48,760 --> 01:15:51,000
Speaker 3: best leagues in the world, so you know, that's not

1561
01:15:51,040 --> 01:15:55,840
Speaker 3: too bad. Ukraine qualified via the playoffs in March, and

1562
01:15:56,080 --> 01:15:59,040
Speaker 3: they did so by beating Bosnia and then Iceland with

1563
01:15:59,120 --> 01:16:01,960
Speaker 3: two late goals or one of them, and I think

1564
01:16:02,280 --> 01:16:04,400
Speaker 3: that should do them wonders coming into the tournament and

1565
01:16:04,640 --> 01:16:07,200
Speaker 3: maybe feed the squad with the belief that they can

1566
01:16:07,320 --> 01:16:10,479
Speaker 3: produce when it really matters. So, as we've spoken about,

1567
01:16:10,520 --> 01:16:13,880
Speaker 3: they enter a group of Romania, Slovakia and Belgium, who

1568
01:16:13,920 --> 01:16:16,680
Speaker 3: in my eyes, they all offer a reasonable opportunity for

1569
01:16:16,760 --> 01:16:18,880
Speaker 3: Ukraine to get on a school sheet, and none of

1570
01:16:18,880 --> 01:16:23,120
Speaker 3: those sides, including Belgium, are impenetrable. And that's how Ukraine

1571
01:16:23,200 --> 01:16:25,760
Speaker 3: and a fit and firing our tend doff Beck will

1572
01:16:25,800 --> 01:16:28,400
Speaker 3: see it, so yeah, for him to get two goes

1573
01:16:28,479 --> 01:16:30,800
Speaker 3: that say, Ukraine gets a penalty and any schools from

1574
01:16:30,800 --> 01:16:34,120
Speaker 3: open place somewhere else at plus one five zero if

1575
01:16:34,120 --> 01:16:37,519
Speaker 3: they do advance to the knockouts, I think that's a

1576
01:16:37,520 --> 01:16:38,240
Speaker 3: pretty good price.

1577
01:16:38,640 --> 01:16:43,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, kept saying Portugal, I met Belgium, they should be

1578
01:16:43,200 --> 01:16:44,760
Speaker 1: able to get Does it really matter either way? No,

1579
01:16:44,840 --> 01:16:46,840
Speaker 1: it doesn't matter. No, that's the point, right, Like it

1580
01:16:46,920 --> 01:16:50,519
Speaker 1: just doesn't matter, all right. A couple other ones I

1581
01:16:50,520 --> 01:16:52,840
Speaker 1: wanted to bring up in terms of just like player

1582
01:16:52,880 --> 01:16:55,400
Speaker 1: futures and o'bjo. You've got a list here. If you

1583
01:16:55,439 --> 01:16:57,439
Speaker 1: are going to bet Belgium, I would just bet rather

1584
01:16:57,479 --> 01:16:59,240
Speaker 1: than bet the sixteen or one, I would bet Kevin

1585
01:16:59,240 --> 01:17:01,479
Speaker 1: de Bruyne to win the player of the tournament at

1586
01:17:01,479 --> 01:17:03,720
Speaker 1: twenty to one. I think those two things are pretty correlated.

1587
01:17:04,840 --> 01:17:07,000
Speaker 1: I'd have a really hard time seeing Belgium win this

1588
01:17:07,040 --> 01:17:11,760
Speaker 1: tournament without de Bruyna capturing the golden ball. So I

1589
01:17:11,800 --> 01:17:14,360
Speaker 1: actually like that quite a bit. I think that even

1590
01:17:13,880 --> 01:17:16,080
Speaker 1: they and the other good thing about that bet is

1591
01:17:16,320 --> 01:17:17,880
Speaker 1: it has legs even if they don't win, Like he

1592
01:17:17,920 --> 01:17:21,160
Speaker 1: could just completely boss the tournament and they can get

1593
01:17:21,160 --> 01:17:24,519
Speaker 1: to the semi finals and he'd be worth a little

1594
01:17:24,520 --> 01:17:27,120
Speaker 1: bit of a look. And if it is coming home,

1595
01:17:27,560 --> 01:17:30,000
Speaker 1: why not Jordan Pittford at one hundred and one, Because

1596
01:17:30,160 --> 01:17:32,200
Speaker 1: if England's gonna win this tournament, they're gonna have to

1597
01:17:32,200 --> 01:17:33,920
Speaker 1: win a couple of shootouts. This is what they do.

1598
01:17:34,680 --> 01:17:38,120
Speaker 1: And Pickford as a goalkeeper. I mean, you look at

1599
01:17:38,120 --> 01:17:40,120
Speaker 1: what he's faced at Everton and the pressure he's been

1600
01:17:40,200 --> 01:17:43,080
Speaker 1: under through what the past three seasons, and when the

1601
01:17:43,120 --> 01:17:45,800
Speaker 1: games have been at their craziest, not only does he

1602
01:17:45,880 --> 01:17:47,680
Speaker 1: make the big save, but he makes the type of

1603
01:17:47,680 --> 01:17:50,240
Speaker 1: save that gets kind of people looking at it and

1604
01:17:50,280 --> 01:17:53,120
Speaker 1: being like that was insane because of the antics and stuff.

1605
01:17:53,280 --> 01:17:55,080
Speaker 1: He's someone who can create his own narrative and I

1606
01:17:55,120 --> 01:17:57,559
Speaker 1: think that stuff actually really matters when we're looking at

1607
01:17:57,560 --> 01:18:00,000
Speaker 1: these kind of personal awards. And one other long shot,

1608
01:18:00,120 --> 01:18:02,720
Speaker 1: and I think this is one that I'm kind of

1609
01:18:02,720 --> 01:18:05,559
Speaker 1: teetering on. But rather than going to the Embape route

1610
01:18:05,560 --> 01:18:08,519
Speaker 1: in France, I kind of like Caamavinga at eighty to

1611
01:18:08,520 --> 01:18:11,880
Speaker 1: one to be like the breakout star here. He would

1612
01:18:11,880 --> 01:18:14,519
Speaker 1: have to do a lot just to beat Mbope. But

1613
01:18:15,160 --> 01:18:17,320
Speaker 1: he's another one that has a little bit of interest

1614
01:18:17,320 --> 01:18:19,439
Speaker 1: in me in the Golden Ball. We do see some

1615
01:18:19,520 --> 01:18:22,120
Speaker 1: long shots win here. I'd like to pat myself on

1616
01:18:22,120 --> 01:18:24,720
Speaker 1: the back from Modriick a bunch of years ago at

1617
01:18:24,760 --> 01:18:28,200
Speaker 1: two hundred to one in the World Cup, BJA. Any

1618
01:18:28,200 --> 01:18:31,080
Speaker 1: other futures you want to get into before we get

1619
01:18:31,120 --> 01:18:31,559
Speaker 1: out of here.

1620
01:18:31,840 --> 01:18:35,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, So I have a as typical with these international tournaments,

1621
01:18:35,080 --> 01:18:38,160
Speaker 2: I have way too many bets on them. I won't

1622
01:18:38,439 --> 01:18:40,600
Speaker 2: bore everybody with every single one of them. If you

1623
01:18:40,600 --> 01:18:42,200
Speaker 2: want to see all of them, they'll be available in

1624
01:18:42,240 --> 01:18:43,960
Speaker 2: the Action Work ap. We'll also have an article coming

1625
01:18:44,000 --> 01:18:46,160
Speaker 2: on the actionework dot com that you can read and

1626
01:18:46,200 --> 01:18:48,439
Speaker 2: make sure that everybody gets them. I'll just mention a

1627
01:18:48,479 --> 01:18:51,840
Speaker 2: couple here. Scott mctomony to be Scotland's top goalscorer at

1628
01:18:51,920 --> 01:18:56,280
Speaker 2: six to one. Like Sam already mentioned, Lynnen Dykes is injured,

1629
01:18:56,280 --> 01:18:58,439
Speaker 2: which means Chay Adams is going to be the main

1630
01:18:58,520 --> 01:19:02,080
Speaker 2: man up top, which Chay Adams historically for Scotland and

1631
01:19:02,120 --> 01:19:05,840
Speaker 2: their mainly transition based system has not thrived very well

1632
01:19:06,120 --> 01:19:09,439
Speaker 2: and mctomy led them with seven goals and two point

1633
01:19:09,439 --> 01:19:11,920
Speaker 2: seven shots for ninety throughout qualifying. They rely on a

1634
01:19:11,960 --> 01:19:14,160
Speaker 2: lot of cutbacks to them and shots from outside the box.

1635
01:19:14,320 --> 01:19:16,920
Speaker 2: He's also a big threat on set pieces, so especially

1636
01:19:16,960 --> 01:19:19,679
Speaker 2: when they play against Hungary and Scotland, min only score

1637
01:19:19,720 --> 01:19:23,840
Speaker 2: one goal. Hopefully's Scott mctomenay Lukaku to be Belgium's top

1638
01:19:23,880 --> 01:19:25,640
Speaker 2: goal scorer at plus one twenty. I think that's a

1639
01:19:25,640 --> 01:19:28,759
Speaker 2: crazy price for how much production he gets over everybody

1640
01:19:28,760 --> 01:19:32,160
Speaker 2: else in the lineup, especially in an easy group couple

1641
01:19:32,200 --> 01:19:37,360
Speaker 2: to lead the tournament and assists Grayaismon eighteen to one,

1642
01:19:37,560 --> 01:19:40,519
Speaker 2: dey Ornandez sixty six to one, both of them. If

1643
01:19:40,600 --> 01:19:43,360
Speaker 2: Imbope is going to win the Golden Boot, it is

1644
01:19:43,400 --> 01:19:47,120
Speaker 2: going to be because either Deo Hernandez or Garaismon are

1645
01:19:47,160 --> 01:19:50,840
Speaker 2: assisting him. Graysman throughout qualifying primarily was playing in the

1646
01:19:50,920 --> 01:19:54,040
Speaker 2: right half space, but in their recent friendly against Luxembourg,

1647
01:19:54,320 --> 01:19:56,280
Speaker 2: Deshamps moved him back over to where he was at

1648
01:19:56,320 --> 01:19:59,040
Speaker 2: the World Cup, in that left half space, combining with

1649
01:19:59,120 --> 01:20:03,440
Speaker 2: Thembape and po Hernandez. At the World Cup, both Hernandez

1650
01:20:03,600 --> 01:20:08,280
Speaker 2: and Griaisman had nineteen passes that led to a shot,

1651
01:20:08,320 --> 01:20:11,320
Speaker 2: which were both top five in the tournament. Same thing

1652
01:20:11,320 --> 01:20:14,639
Speaker 2: in qualifying, same thing qualifying with those two guys. Again,

1653
01:20:15,000 --> 01:20:17,720
Speaker 2: if Sam's selection is going to win, I think it's

1654
01:20:17,720 --> 01:20:20,840
Speaker 2: going to be because of one of those two guys,

1655
01:20:20,880 --> 01:20:24,320
Speaker 2: some taking longer prices on them and then the longest shot. Michael,

1656
01:20:24,560 --> 01:20:25,960
Speaker 2: I texted you about this the other day.

1657
01:20:26,000 --> 01:20:27,880
Speaker 1: Yeah, we love this one. I feel like we played

1658
01:20:27,880 --> 01:20:29,320
Speaker 1: this one at the last Euros.

1659
01:20:29,560 --> 01:20:33,360
Speaker 2: Yeah. Well, I played a Ukrainian in this market last one.

1660
01:20:33,400 --> 01:20:38,920
Speaker 2: I think it was Ruslan Malinovski. Yes, yes, yeah, Mudrik

1661
01:20:39,000 --> 01:20:42,519
Speaker 2: most as sits two hundred and one. Like we already mentioned,

1662
01:20:42,760 --> 01:20:45,639
Speaker 2: Ukraine's going to be in an easy group. Most importantly though,

1663
01:20:46,040 --> 01:20:48,320
Speaker 2: with the Ukrainian national team. I know that Muderik has

1664
01:20:48,320 --> 01:20:50,880
Speaker 2: not been in good form for Chelsea, but he is

1665
01:20:50,920 --> 01:20:53,479
Speaker 2: a star for the Ukrainian national team and they love

1666
01:20:53,520 --> 01:20:55,599
Speaker 2: to get the ball to him, to utilize his pace,

1667
01:20:55,680 --> 01:20:58,040
Speaker 2: his ball carrying ability and to get the ball down

1668
01:20:58,080 --> 01:21:00,760
Speaker 2: the left wing. Now they have some like Dove Bick,

1669
01:21:01,320 --> 01:21:04,559
Speaker 2: he's primarily more of a creator and an assister than

1670
01:21:04,640 --> 01:21:07,280
Speaker 2: actually having to get his own shot. If you look

1671
01:21:07,280 --> 01:21:08,800
Speaker 2: at the teams that he's going to play in this group,

1672
01:21:09,520 --> 01:21:13,639
Speaker 2: what is common is that Romania and Slovakia have terrible

1673
01:21:13,720 --> 01:21:15,280
Speaker 2: right backs who are not gonna be able to deal

1674
01:21:15,320 --> 01:21:18,400
Speaker 2: with his pace. Even Belgium, the system that they play

1675
01:21:18,520 --> 01:21:21,960
Speaker 2: primarily Istani, likes to invert into the midfield when they're

1676
01:21:22,000 --> 01:21:24,320
Speaker 2: in possession, which leaves a lot of space down the

1677
01:21:24,400 --> 01:21:27,120
Speaker 2: left hand side, and Belgium does not have a very

1678
01:21:27,120 --> 01:21:31,960
Speaker 2: good center back pairing either, So there's three opportunities there

1679
01:21:32,040 --> 01:21:34,880
Speaker 2: for Muderik to just absolutely recavoc down the left hand

1680
01:21:34,920 --> 01:21:39,280
Speaker 2: side and hopefully feed dov Bick that way. So you know,

1681
01:21:39,439 --> 01:21:41,040
Speaker 2: I've got three sixty five. You can also do a

1682
01:21:41,040 --> 01:21:43,320
Speaker 2: top four each way, which you know in this market

1683
01:21:43,400 --> 01:21:46,519
Speaker 2: typically four or three assists wins it. The last tournament,

1684
01:21:46,640 --> 01:21:49,000
Speaker 2: Steven Zuber won it. I don't think he was even

1685
01:21:49,040 --> 01:21:52,400
Speaker 2: on the board to actually win the assist because he

1686
01:21:52,720 --> 01:21:54,760
Speaker 2: if you remember, he padded all of his stats in

1687
01:21:54,760 --> 01:21:57,519
Speaker 2: that third match against Turkey that didn't really matter to

1688
01:21:57,560 --> 01:22:01,760
Speaker 2: either team. But for me, I think Mudrick actually has

1689
01:22:01,800 --> 01:22:04,920
Speaker 2: a really nice path here, especially against these three teams,

1690
01:22:04,960 --> 01:22:06,439
Speaker 2: with him being the main guy that they want to

1691
01:22:06,439 --> 01:22:09,479
Speaker 2: get the ball to to feed delve picks. So Mudric

1692
01:22:10,040 --> 01:22:12,880
Speaker 2: two one to lead the tournament and assists.

1693
01:22:13,080 --> 01:22:15,320
Speaker 1: All right, hopefully you guys got all that down. I

1694
01:22:15,320 --> 01:22:18,240
Speaker 1: think we left you with a million bets. Hopefully a

1695
01:22:18,240 --> 01:22:20,120
Speaker 1: few of them come through and we can have ourselves

1696
01:22:20,120 --> 01:22:22,720
Speaker 1: a profitable, at least futures portfolio. But we will be

1697
01:22:22,760 --> 01:22:26,720
Speaker 1: back ahead of each part of the group stage, and

1698
01:22:26,760 --> 01:22:30,320
Speaker 1: then we'll do two episodes for the third match of

1699
01:22:30,360 --> 01:22:33,680
Speaker 1: the group stage because of all the scheduling chaos, but

1700
01:22:33,800 --> 01:22:35,400
Speaker 1: just to give you a general idea of what that

1701
01:22:35,439 --> 01:22:39,719
Speaker 1: schedule will looked like, we'll be recording again on June tenth,

1702
01:22:39,920 --> 01:22:43,519
Speaker 1: looking ahead at all the first matches of the group stage,

1703
01:22:43,880 --> 01:22:47,080
Speaker 1: a week later for the second, then June nineteenth for

1704
01:22:48,280 --> 01:22:51,679
Speaker 1: the first half of group stage round three, June twenty

1705
01:22:51,680 --> 01:22:55,439
Speaker 1: first for Group stage round four, and so on and

1706
01:22:55,479 --> 01:22:57,760
Speaker 1: so forth as we get into the knockout stages. But

1707
01:22:57,840 --> 01:23:00,720
Speaker 1: we'll have every match of the Euros cover here. We're

1708
01:23:00,800 --> 01:23:03,000
Speaker 1: very happy to have Sam on board to do all that.

1709
01:23:03,040 --> 01:23:06,880
Speaker 1: With bj and myself, we're off to a great start here,

1710
01:23:07,360 --> 01:23:10,439
Speaker 1: a loaded portfolio for all of us as we get

1711
01:23:10,439 --> 01:23:12,160
Speaker 1: into the Euros. Should be a lot of fun, should

1712
01:23:12,160 --> 01:23:15,280
Speaker 1: be a lot of chaos. Thank you to you for listening,

1713
01:23:15,320 --> 01:23:18,000
Speaker 1: Please rate, review and subscribe. Thank you to our producer Noah,

1714
01:23:18,040 --> 01:23:19,880
Speaker 1: and of course thank you to our sponsors BET three

1715
01:23:19,880 --> 01:23:22,280
Speaker 1: six five for providing the odds for this in every

1716
01:23:22,320 --> 01:23:25,240
Speaker 1: episode of Wonder Goal. For BJ and Sam, I'm Michael.

1717
01:23:25,520 --> 01:23:28,679
Speaker 1: Best of luck putting together all your futures for Euro

1718
01:23:28,760 --> 01:23:30,360
Speaker 1: twenty twenty four, and we'll see you again soon.

1719
01:23:38,360 --> 01:23:42,880
Speaker 2: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly. If you or

1720
01:23:42,880 --> 01:23:45,680
Speaker 2: someone you care about has a gambling problem, help is

1721
01:23:45,720 --> 01:23:48,839
Speaker 2: available twenty four to seven at one eight hundred gambler