WEBVTT - Civil War 2.0 Goes Mainstream 0:00:04.880 --> 0:00:08.960 You know what, I think it's time to do a podcast. 0:00:10.680 --> 0:00:15.760 All right, I did it, Sophie. This is it could 0:00:15.840 --> 0:00:19.079 happen here a podcast that's begun. We talk about how 0:00:19.239 --> 0:00:22.639 things are falling apart, and occasionally, when we're feeling good, 0:00:23.079 --> 0:00:25.840 how to maybe how to maybe put them back together 0:00:25.920 --> 0:00:29.040 a little bit. But today we're more talking about the 0:00:29.080 --> 0:00:34.880 growing consensus that things in the US culture wars are 0:00:35.200 --> 0:00:39.320 heating up to an unacceptable level, and and maybe people 0:00:39.360 --> 0:00:43.360 are going to start doing some non culture type wars 0:00:43.560 --> 0:00:46.320 here in the near future, like a civil type war 0:00:46.360 --> 0:00:49.040 here in the near future. Those of you who know me, which, 0:00:49.080 --> 0:00:51.000 why would you be listening to this podcast if you 0:00:51.120 --> 0:00:54.600 if you don't know, like the earlier seasons of this 0:00:54.720 --> 0:00:57.480 exact show, uh know that I talk a lot about 0:00:57.520 --> 0:01:00.400 the potential of a mass civil conflict in the United States. 0:01:00.480 --> 0:01:02.760 I've been kind of trying to warn about it for 0:01:02.800 --> 0:01:05.120 a while, and today we're gonna do an episode about 0:01:05.200 --> 0:01:09.760 some of the more mainstream sources that have started to 0:01:10.280 --> 0:01:13.520 kind of accept this as a possibility, um and get 0:01:13.520 --> 0:01:17.160 concerned about it. Garrison, you've presented us with three articles, 0:01:17.640 --> 0:01:22.080 one from NBC News, one from The Independent, and one 0:01:22.160 --> 0:01:26.440 from the Brookings Institute, all kind of fiddling around this 0:01:26.520 --> 0:01:32.400 idea that certain unnamed journalists have spent years discussing. So yeah, 0:01:32.440 --> 0:01:36.000 we're gonna we're gonna get into it, Garrison. Yeah, so 0:01:36.920 --> 0:01:39.720 it is the past. The past few months we have 0:01:39.840 --> 0:01:43.000 well I've I've been watching to see how how this 0:01:43.680 --> 0:01:47.160 idea has been slowly kind of gaining in popularity. Of course, 0:01:47.160 --> 0:01:49.320 there was like a spike in this around like January six, 0:01:49.600 --> 0:01:52.000 but then stuff kind of settled down, and now we're 0:01:52.080 --> 0:01:54.720 kind of seeing it come back up against We had 0:01:54.760 --> 0:01:57.240 these these three pieces, all published within like a month 0:01:57.240 --> 0:02:00.400 of each other, um, all kind of on the topic 0:02:00.440 --> 0:02:05.280 and specifically, like the pieces themselves are definitely going coming 0:02:05.280 --> 0:02:08.880 out this from a more like liberal perspective. But the 0:02:08.880 --> 0:02:10.960 thing that made them interesting is that they did have 0:02:11.000 --> 0:02:14.440 a decent number of like of of polls and uh 0:02:14.520 --> 0:02:17.560 and and surveys in them based on like what who who, 0:02:17.680 --> 0:02:20.840 what types of people think are like are thinking about 0:02:20.880 --> 0:02:23.200 this and think it's more more of a possibility. One 0:02:23.240 --> 0:02:28.880 survey published on November one, they've said eighteen percent of 0:02:28.880 --> 0:02:34.359 Americans believe that quote unquote patriots might have to resort 0:02:34.400 --> 0:02:37.799 to violence to quote save the country. Um, so, and 0:02:37.840 --> 0:02:41.600 then that included a thirty percent of Republicans, um so, 0:02:41.680 --> 0:02:43.520 but at eighteen percent of all of of of of 0:02:43.600 --> 0:02:47.680 Americans in general republicans. Yeah, so using that very specifically 0:02:47.760 --> 0:02:52.600 turn of phrase is definitely uh notable. And then another 0:02:52.639 --> 0:02:56.000 pole from morelier in the year found that forty six 0:02:56.080 --> 0:02:59.600 percent of people thought the country was somewhat or very 0:02:59.720 --> 0:03:04.200 like to have another type of civil war. And that's 0:03:04.240 --> 0:03:06.720 the plurality of the people pulled in that because only 0:03:06.960 --> 0:03:10.680 like said unlikely, so the majority of people or not 0:03:10.720 --> 0:03:13.520 the majority of people pulled, but like the most common 0:03:15.040 --> 0:03:17.520 leaned on, yes it is, I think maybe we're going 0:03:17.560 --> 0:03:19.880 to have us a war yeah, which is not great. 0:03:20.040 --> 0:03:23.600 The one that uh NBC published included in their article 0:03:23.720 --> 0:03:26.000 had but like thirty three percent of people saying no, 0:03:26.160 --> 0:03:29.080 it's it's probably not gonna happen, kind of on the 0:03:29.120 --> 0:03:32.720 maybe and and and and forty seven leaning on yeah 0:03:32.760 --> 0:03:35.240 this maybe this is this is probably gonna happen at 0:03:35.280 --> 0:03:38.880 some point soon. YEP. I mean a lot of a 0:03:38.880 --> 0:03:41.080 lot a lot of what these articles are talking about 0:03:41.160 --> 0:03:45.200 is just like kind of the increased increased threats against 0:03:45.320 --> 0:03:49.280 like elected officials and then increased almost like militancy or 0:03:49.360 --> 0:03:53.360 performative militancy of elected officials types of like like you know, 0:03:53.520 --> 0:03:57.120 like a performatively bringing your gun into Congress and that 0:03:57.160 --> 0:03:59.120 type of thing. And it lays out like a list 0:03:59.160 --> 0:04:01.600 of a list of like of of of threats or 0:04:01.680 --> 0:04:05.440 stuff enacted against governors, congressmen, all that kind of stuff 0:04:05.440 --> 0:04:09.080 in in the past, in the past, like a year 0:04:09.520 --> 0:04:12.480 year mainly. Yeah, one of the things I really disagree 0:04:12.480 --> 0:04:15.480 about the Brookings because Brookings is the one who kind 0:04:15.520 --> 0:04:18.440 of is analyzing that made that big poll and talking 0:04:18.440 --> 0:04:21.200 about it, has a list of reasons why we might 0:04:21.279 --> 0:04:23.200 have a civil war and a list of reasons why 0:04:23.240 --> 0:04:26.080 it's unlikely. And one of the reasons why it's unlikely 0:04:26.200 --> 0:04:28.720 is quote most of the organizations talking about civil war 0:04:28.800 --> 0:04:32.560 or private not public entities. Um. And note that when 0:04:32.560 --> 0:04:35.440 Southern States succeeded in eighteen sixty, they had police forces, 0:04:35.440 --> 0:04:42.039 military organizations, and state sponsored Militia's the right of that now. Yeah, 0:04:42.160 --> 0:04:47.680 Like there's a ton of signal posting from guys like 0:04:47.760 --> 0:04:54.560 Jim Jordan's uh Hawthorne um Gates bobert Um, a ton 0:04:54.640 --> 0:05:00.479 of signal posting of gosar from elected Republican leaders, from governors, 0:05:00.480 --> 0:05:04.720 from state level elected officials, and like regular street cops. Yeah, 0:05:04.720 --> 0:05:09.039 and like regular street cops that are like civil war adjacent, um, 0:05:09.080 --> 0:05:12.880 if not directly advocating for internet scene violence. I think 0:05:12.880 --> 0:05:16.360 that that I don't think Brookings, I don't think they're 0:05:16.400 --> 0:05:21.280 analysis is spot on with this, And I think there's 0:05:21.279 --> 0:05:23.240 just one of everything that's interesting about that, which is 0:05:25.000 --> 0:05:28.680 I think it was one of those are these our 0:05:28.680 --> 0:05:30.960 sleps were arguing that it was like, well, the Pentagon's 0:05:31.120 --> 0:05:33.880 not particularly civil like, well, the Pentagon doesn't want a 0:05:33.839 --> 0:05:35.520 civil war, They're not gonna step into it. But but 0:05:35.560 --> 0:05:38.000 I think it is also important to note that, like 0:05:38.000 --> 0:05:40.440 like if you remember what happened last summer, there's a 0:05:40.560 --> 0:05:43.839 lot of FEDS who are just like you know, like 0:05:43.880 --> 0:05:46.800 when like yeah, so so you know, the the army 0:05:46.920 --> 0:05:49.640 kind of doesn't want Trump to like send the army 0:05:49.640 --> 0:05:53.880 against protesters, but like you know, like bor Tak for example, 0:05:54.200 --> 0:05:59.680 like was just like absolutely hyped up to just like 0:05:59.760 --> 0:06:03.800 absolutely just go disappear a bunch of people. And they 0:06:04.160 --> 0:06:06.320 were very excited about that part. Yeah, Yeah, they love 0:06:06.360 --> 0:06:09.839 they love this stuff, and it's like, yeah, the notion 0:06:09.880 --> 0:06:13.120 that it's less likely because it doesn't have like formal 0:06:13.200 --> 0:06:15.720 police backing is really silly because if you spend any 0:06:15.720 --> 0:06:18.560 time monitoring these type of militia groups, you know that 0:06:18.640 --> 0:06:20.640 a good portion of them are also members of some 0:06:20.640 --> 0:06:23.840 type of law enforcement or have like family connections. To me, 0:06:25.520 --> 0:06:28.080 there have been a bunch of cases of weapons being 0:06:28.120 --> 0:06:31.960 stolen stolen from forts UM, particularly in like the West 0:06:31.960 --> 0:06:35.240 Coast right now. Like, Yeah, there's a ton of connections 0:06:35.279 --> 0:06:37.120 to the and a ton of like members in common. 0:06:37.120 --> 0:06:39.000 It's like at the Capital riot that were like thirty 0:06:39.080 --> 0:06:43.640 something active duty police officers involved. UM. To say that 0:06:43.680 --> 0:06:47.120 there's not direct connections with law enforcement is nonsense. And 0:06:47.160 --> 0:06:52.880 it's true that like our military leadership remains pretty much 0:06:52.920 --> 0:06:55.880 a political and very like committed to being a political 0:06:55.920 --> 0:06:58.359 in the sense that like in the within the like 0:06:58.520 --> 0:07:02.240 US partisan context, right like they don't come in to 0:07:02.800 --> 0:07:05.039 prop up the Democrats of the Republicans, and I don't 0:07:05.040 --> 0:07:09.119 think that's immediately likely. But police forces in the United 0:07:09.160 --> 0:07:12.800 States are extremely politicized and have more than enough power 0:07:12.960 --> 0:07:17.240 to carry out a counterinsurgency campaign nationwide. And as long 0:07:17.320 --> 0:07:20.880 as the US military didn't step in, and why would they, like, 0:07:20.960 --> 0:07:24.520 the cops are willing and able to do the civil 0:07:24.520 --> 0:07:27.120 warring for the government. Why do you think they have 0:07:27.200 --> 0:07:29.880 all those tanks? You know? So, yeah, like there is 0:07:29.920 --> 0:07:32.880 there is a lot of backing um, at least performatively 0:07:32.920 --> 0:07:35.760 among certain types of like write politicians and of course police. 0:07:35.800 --> 0:07:37.840 But I think a lot of what the politicians are 0:07:37.880 --> 0:07:41.680 trying to do is more like encourage regular folks or 0:07:41.760 --> 0:07:46.360 people in like civilian militias to just start doing violence 0:07:46.400 --> 0:07:49.920 against other elected leaders. That seems to be like like 0:07:50.880 --> 0:07:53.560 like Bobart and that and those types aren't. They're not 0:07:53.600 --> 0:07:56.480 like telling police to go do this. They're speaking to 0:07:56.520 --> 0:08:00.520 like regular people. UM. And I think one on one 0:08:00.560 --> 0:08:02.920 decent point, the actually the nbc PS actually puts out 0:08:02.920 --> 0:08:03.960 and it says all of this kind of like a 0:08:04.000 --> 0:08:09.200 divisive um and and more violent rhetoric and behavior displayed 0:08:09.240 --> 0:08:12.040 by and towards some of our elected officials does not 0:08:12.120 --> 0:08:15.560 necessarily mean another like civil war in terms of like 0:08:15.560 --> 0:08:19.400 a military conduct contest between states. UM. It just does 0:08:19.400 --> 0:08:21.480 not mean that it's inevitable or even probable or even 0:08:21.520 --> 0:08:24.680 like probable. A more likely scenario is a turbulent era 0:08:24.760 --> 0:08:29.680 of civil disturbances, armed confrontations, standoffs, threats, assassination attempts, and 0:08:29.760 --> 0:08:33.400 other acts of political violence. In other words, one that's 0:08:33.400 --> 0:08:35.880 a lot like the last two years of American history, 0:08:36.040 --> 0:08:38.600 which I feel like, yeah, in terms of in terms 0:08:38.640 --> 0:08:40.800 of the likelihood of there being like a more formally 0:08:40.880 --> 0:08:46.920 declared kind of conflict versus just versus just like increasingly 0:08:47.000 --> 0:08:53.960 increasingly normalizing extreme violence against uh you know, quote unquote 0:08:53.960 --> 0:08:57.559 fellow countrymen. I think is is ah, yeah, like that 0:08:57.679 --> 0:08:59.600 there's we are going to be more likely to be 0:08:59.679 --> 0:09:02.040 just move being in that direction slowly and at the 0:09:02.160 --> 0:09:05.600 point when there's like frequent enough exchange of the fire, 0:09:05.880 --> 0:09:08.160 that's when we say, yeah, we're basically in a civil war. 0:09:08.200 --> 0:09:11.000 We're just not calling it that, um, which is you know, 0:09:11.120 --> 0:09:13.360 that's the points that you, Robert, you have made a 0:09:13.400 --> 0:09:17.800 lot in the in the past. Yeah, I mean, and 0:09:17.840 --> 0:09:21.320 there's I I'm I think a lot of this is 0:09:21.400 --> 0:09:24.000 just a failure of kind of imagination and ability to 0:09:24.040 --> 0:09:27.320 accept from a group like Brookings, who I know has 0:09:27.320 --> 0:09:30.160 paid some attention to the Syrian Civil War that like 0:09:30.360 --> 0:09:34.040 civil conflicts in the United States or in the in 0:09:34.280 --> 0:09:37.880 the twenty one century often don't like there's no clear 0:09:37.920 --> 0:09:39.760 regional split. Like you look at a lot of what 0:09:39.840 --> 0:09:42.200 was happening in Syria, you had cities divided up by 0:09:42.240 --> 0:09:47.000 neighborhoods between like who who was in charge? Um, you 0:09:47.040 --> 0:09:50.160 know that that's very much what we see here. And 0:09:50.160 --> 0:09:52.640 you do see like clear regional split between urban and 0:09:52.720 --> 0:09:56.320 rural divides. And it's not like they say, within specific states, 0:09:56.400 --> 0:09:59.720 but like I would say, it's very specific and limited 0:09:59.760 --> 0:10:03.440 state that don't have huge urban rural divides. Um, Like, 0:10:03.520 --> 0:10:06.440 that's that is the norm everywhere in this country that 0:10:06.520 --> 0:10:10.720 I've been. Maybe it's different in fucking Vermont or New Hampshire, 0:10:10.760 --> 0:10:14.559 but I don't trust those places. Um. Yeah, And I 0:10:14.960 --> 0:10:21.760 guess I think they're overly optimistic based on kind of 0:10:21.760 --> 0:10:26.480 a fundamental misunderstanding of how these sorts of conflicts occur. Um. 0:10:26.520 --> 0:10:29.400 That said, I don't know, Like it's it's one of 0:10:29.400 --> 0:10:32.439 those things. I think the number one the number one 0:10:32.480 --> 0:10:34.640 thing you should be looking at in terms of whether 0:10:34.720 --> 0:10:38.720 or not a civil war is likely is the number 0:10:38.720 --> 0:10:41.800 of people who respond in polls with things like yes, 0:10:41.840 --> 0:10:44.360 I think we need to use violence to restore the 0:10:44.440 --> 0:10:49.120 nation or whatever. Um that it's not just enough, Like 0:10:49.200 --> 0:10:51.760 I I it's not just enough to think that a 0:10:51.840 --> 0:10:54.080 civil war is likely because a lot of that's just 0:10:54.120 --> 0:10:56.640 based on people who don't want one, but are paying 0:10:56.679 --> 0:10:59.360 attention to the same media as everybody else and are 0:10:59.360 --> 0:11:01.400 watching this and stuff we're watching and are like, well, 0:11:01.440 --> 0:11:04.960 this seems sketchy. I think that the main indicator is 0:11:05.720 --> 0:11:09.199 the number of people who respond, yeah, I think it 0:11:09.240 --> 0:11:11.800 would be awesome to use violence as a like in 0:11:11.920 --> 0:11:17.120 order to make America more like what I wanted to be. UM. 0:11:17.160 --> 0:11:20.000 And again that doesn't mean we'll we'll creep over the point. 0:11:20.000 --> 0:11:23.440 There's a number of interesting things that have happened UM 0:11:23.600 --> 0:11:26.720 on kind of the we're headed towards the civil war side. 0:11:26.840 --> 0:11:29.320 The number one thing that I've seen recently is the 0:11:29.400 --> 0:11:33.720 use of paramilitary organizations UM to kind of choke uh 0:11:34.080 --> 0:11:38.640 local civil institutions UM like school boards. I I see 0:11:38.640 --> 0:11:41.680 that as very concerning and as kind of prelude to 0:11:41.800 --> 0:11:46.040 the sort of armed mobilizations that you would see unlocalized 0:11:46.080 --> 0:11:49.160 areas in any kind of civil conflict. It's it's the 0:11:49.720 --> 0:11:52.319 precursors to death squads. So that's the that's the thing 0:11:52.360 --> 0:11:55.480 that I see on the ground that worries me most 0:11:56.240 --> 0:12:00.400 um in terms of the thing that I'm I'm certain 0:12:00.400 --> 0:12:02.559 about honestly, Like, one of the things they note in 0:12:02.679 --> 0:12:04.960 here in the Brookings article that like, the sheer number 0:12:05.000 --> 0:12:07.120 of guns in the United States is a reason why 0:12:07.160 --> 0:12:09.160 we might have a civil war, and I agree with 0:12:09.200 --> 0:12:12.960 that entirely. When you have four million weapons in private hands, 0:12:13.320 --> 0:12:15.440 it increases the odds that they'll be used in some 0:12:15.520 --> 0:12:20.160 sort of scale. UM. We've also seen historic numbers of 0:12:21.000 --> 0:12:24.640 non white people of of of like folks who are 0:12:24.720 --> 0:12:28.439 from marginalized communities, UM, not just buying up weapons that 0:12:28.559 --> 0:12:32.360 unprecedented rates, but organizing with them. And I'm not really 0:12:32.400 --> 0:12:35.400 sure how to think of that. There's certainly a way. 0:12:35.760 --> 0:12:38.640 It could certainly be a very negative development, but it 0:12:38.679 --> 0:12:41.120 could also be. I think a big part of what 0:12:41.160 --> 0:12:46.520 I've seen from the right lately is the sense of impunity. UM. 0:12:46.559 --> 0:12:50.800 And I think the feeling of being matched uh in 0:12:51.120 --> 0:12:55.240 arms is an end to impunity potentially. UM. Then the 0:12:55.240 --> 0:12:57.480 big question is like, well what about the police, and like, well, 0:12:57.520 --> 0:12:59.480 if the police side with the riot against you know, 0:13:00.040 --> 0:13:02.040 there's there's still a number of questions there, and we 0:13:02.080 --> 0:13:05.800 don't have any clean answers. But UM, I don't know that. 0:13:05.920 --> 0:13:09.160 I I think that on the whole, I'm more worried 0:13:09.400 --> 0:13:11.760 than I was two years ago when I wrote it. 0:13:11.800 --> 0:13:15.440 Could happen here, um, but it's not clean. And I 0:13:15.480 --> 0:13:18.920 think in some to some extent, I'm I'm a little 0:13:18.960 --> 0:13:21.720 more worried about something like the years of Lead in 0:13:21.840 --> 0:13:25.800 Italy than I am about Syria right now, if that 0:13:25.840 --> 0:13:29.080 makes sense. I will say one thing about the years 0:13:29.120 --> 0:13:31.200 of Lead, which because a lot of people talk about 0:13:31.240 --> 0:13:32.640 the years of less, so that the years a letter 0:13:32.960 --> 0:13:36.400 this kind of like a roughly ten year period in 0:13:36.440 --> 0:13:43.400 Italy of I don't know, mass terrorismating political violence with 0:13:43.880 --> 0:13:46.280 effigant body counts in a way that stood out from 0:13:46.320 --> 0:13:48.360 the years around it. Yeah, And I mean, you know, 0:13:48.920 --> 0:13:50.840 the years of Lead has use a lit Also, there's 0:13:50.840 --> 0:13:52.720 there's a bunch of intelligent and she's involved. There's a 0:13:52.720 --> 0:13:56.120 lot of foreign kind of false false bombings, like hundred 0:13:56.200 --> 0:13:58.000 hundreds of people are being killed in bombings. And I 0:13:58.040 --> 0:14:04.440 think there's one absolutely crucial difference between now in the 0:14:04.480 --> 0:14:07.080 Years of Light. I mean, well, okay, so partially it's 0:14:07.120 --> 0:14:10.520 that unlike Italy, we don't have seventeen thousand intelligence agencies 0:14:10.520 --> 0:14:12.480 operating in the US and like trying to kidnap and 0:14:12.559 --> 0:14:15.160 kill the foreign prime minister. But the the other thing 0:14:15.280 --> 0:14:20.160 that's very important is that unlike unlike the Italian left, 0:14:21.280 --> 0:14:23.480 and you know, really unlike the whole global left of 0:14:23.520 --> 0:14:27.680 the seventies and eighties. There is no American like left 0:14:27.720 --> 0:14:31.480 wing like left wing, I guess you could call, like 0:14:31.480 --> 0:14:33.480 there's there's no left wing terrorist tradition, right like the 0:14:33.600 --> 0:14:36.000 like the left doesn't do suside bombings. The left doesn't 0:14:36.040 --> 0:14:39.800 kidnap people like like the modern American left doesn't do that, 0:14:40.120 --> 0:14:42.520 and that a big part of what was happening from 0:14:42.520 --> 0:14:45.000 the years of LED was that, you know, sometimes the 0:14:45.080 --> 0:14:46.960 left was doing this. A lot of times it was 0:14:47.040 --> 0:14:49.240 the state pretending to be the left carrying out bombings. 0:14:49.280 --> 0:14:53.800 And that isn't really something that is happening right now 0:14:53.920 --> 0:14:59.320 because there's just like the like, the the left is 0:14:59.360 --> 0:15:02.640 not in a play where everyone is going, we need 0:15:02.720 --> 0:15:06.240 to do armed durban guerrilla movements and yeah, so and 0:15:06.240 --> 0:15:07.840 then that that makes it harder to sort of pin 0:15:08.000 --> 0:15:11.400 things like pin actual urban guerrilla movement stuff on the 0:15:11.480 --> 0:15:13.960 left because there's just none of that. But I don't 0:15:14.000 --> 0:15:17.040 think and I agree Years of Left is kind of 0:15:17.040 --> 0:15:21.040 like a broad Strokes comparison because what I see is 0:15:21.080 --> 0:15:24.440 more likely is what we're what we're already witnessing on 0:15:24.480 --> 0:15:27.320 the ground with these right wing militant groups increases, and 0:15:27.360 --> 0:15:30.200 they moved to the point of kidnapping and executing and 0:15:30.240 --> 0:15:33.960 potentially in concert with law enforcement, like doing stuff like 0:15:34.000 --> 0:15:37.560 in states that have issued harsh laws, you know, banning 0:15:37.600 --> 0:15:41.000 certain books. You have in a town, local law enforcement 0:15:41.000 --> 0:15:44.120 and militias like go after and grab individual leftists and 0:15:44.160 --> 0:15:47.520 either kill or imprison them, and conflicts over that, and 0:15:47.560 --> 0:15:52.400 you have the left increasingly organized an arm um as 0:15:52.440 --> 0:15:55.600 a defense against that, and then a number of armed conflicts, 0:15:55.640 --> 0:15:57.720 you know, as a result of that, which maybe then 0:15:57.800 --> 0:16:01.000 proceed to bombings and stuff that that's terrorism, or proceed 0:16:01.080 --> 0:16:05.720 to just more kind of skirmishes that the FEDS have 0:16:05.840 --> 0:16:09.560 a minimal response to, and local or state law enforcement 0:16:09.600 --> 0:16:13.240 kind of tacitly allows um like that. That's that's kind 0:16:13.240 --> 0:16:16.520 of obviously that's not a direct comparison to what happened 0:16:16.520 --> 0:16:18.520 in Italy, but of course we're a different country. But 0:16:18.600 --> 0:16:21.600 that's kind of that's kind of the kind of brush 0:16:21.640 --> 0:16:25.280 fire conflict I could see cropping up in the very 0:16:25.320 --> 0:16:31.200 near future in this country. You know what else will 0:16:31.240 --> 0:16:36.720 start a series of armed gun fights between left and 0:16:36.800 --> 0:16:45.680 right in American towns. The products and services they're they're 0:16:45.720 --> 0:16:48.120 working on it every day. The products and services that 0:16:48.160 --> 0:16:51.880 support this podcast urged violence on the streets of the 0:16:51.960 --> 0:16:57.200 United States. That's behind the bastards. Guarantee, Sophie, We're not 0:16:57.280 --> 0:17:00.640 doing behind the bastards? What what show are we? Who 0:17:00.640 --> 0:17:16.479 are we? Anyway? Here's ads? All right? Oh my gosh, 0:17:17.560 --> 0:17:20.440 uh We're back. Yeah, what a great ad. I really 0:17:20.520 --> 0:17:27.840 nailed that transition. Um, just absolutely so. The next thing 0:17:27.880 --> 0:17:31.080 that I want to talk about, UM, something that I 0:17:31.119 --> 0:17:35.639 think has some some backing behind it and something that 0:17:35.680 --> 0:17:38.440 I think is kind of more silly. Is that one 0:17:38.440 --> 0:17:41.760 of one of the reasons that this uh NBC piece 0:17:41.880 --> 0:17:49.840 by what's his name, uh, Brian Brian Michael Jenkins is uh, 0:17:50.480 --> 0:17:53.080 he says, one of one of the reasons that we're 0:17:53.119 --> 0:17:57.320 kind of getting more okay with, you know, uh, killing 0:17:57.400 --> 0:18:02.679 or hurting our neighbors essentially is um quote, Americans do 0:18:02.760 --> 0:18:06.160 fewer things together. Church attendance is declining. Membership and civic 0:18:06.280 --> 0:18:09.760 organizations and lodges have been decreasing for decades. PTA membership 0:18:09.760 --> 0:18:11.440 has dropped by nearly half from what it was in 0:18:11.520 --> 0:18:16.240 nineteen sixties, Bowling leagues have almost disappeared, and a shared 0:18:16.320 --> 0:18:21.320 national experience of military service disintegrated with the abolition of 0:18:21.359 --> 0:18:26.760 conscription in nineteen seventy three. Meanwhile, self proclaimed citizen militia's 0:18:26.960 --> 0:18:30.000 driven mainly by far right conspiracy theories have surged since 0:18:30.000 --> 0:18:32.320 to US and eight, especially in the past five years. 0:18:33.080 --> 0:18:39.840 So he is wrong, but he's yes, militias have leagues, 0:18:40.359 --> 0:18:45.200 militias have risen. But is that due to bowling leagues. Yeah, 0:18:45.280 --> 0:18:47.920 I don't think it's due to a drop in bowling leagues. 0:18:48.160 --> 0:18:50.000 I think it's due to the fact that all these 0:18:50.000 --> 0:18:53.960 guys are terminally online now and we're watching Fox News 0:18:53.960 --> 0:18:56.960 for twenty years before that. That is the thing, is that, like, 0:18:57.280 --> 0:19:00.880 I don't think this guy, Brian Michael Chickens understands how 0:19:00.960 --> 0:19:05.159 the Internet intersects with extremism because he's he's doing this 0:19:05.200 --> 0:19:08.320 from a very like like he's he's acting like we're 0:19:08.359 --> 0:19:11.439 still in the seventies, and he like, like that's not 0:19:11.520 --> 0:19:14.840 how the world works, and how like people spend their time. No, 0:19:14.960 --> 0:19:18.080 people aren't doing bowling leagues, but yeah, woman, young men 0:19:18.119 --> 0:19:21.760 are spending and and you know, middleagement are spending time online, 0:19:21.960 --> 0:19:25.159 whether that be discord in a terrorist group chat, or 0:19:25.200 --> 0:19:27.920 that be a Facebook group that's for a militia and 0:19:28.200 --> 0:19:31.439 that's where that socialization is happening. And because the Internet 0:19:31.480 --> 0:19:35.600 rewards extremism and the hottest take, it's moving in that direction, 0:19:36.160 --> 0:19:39.639 even with people who would ordinarily just have historically the 0:19:39.680 --> 0:19:43.640 past joined bowling leagues. I guess, but it's very It's 0:19:43.640 --> 0:19:47.160 it's correlation doesn't equal causation. Ship It's wow. Less people 0:19:47.240 --> 0:19:50.440 are in bowling leagues and going to church, and militias 0:19:50.440 --> 0:19:55.360 have grown wildly, wildly. Um, this one must cause the other. 0:19:55.440 --> 0:19:57.960 And it's like, well, no, they're both both of those things. 0:19:58.000 --> 0:20:01.480 May have some causes in common. There may be similar 0:20:01.520 --> 0:20:04.800 factors that are driving both of those things, but they 0:20:04.800 --> 0:20:07.960 are not caused like that. They don't necessary one doesn't 0:20:07.960 --> 0:20:11.919 necessarily cause the other. Um. And if you like, again, 0:20:12.040 --> 0:20:14.320 the smart person version of this would be to say, hey, 0:20:14.640 --> 0:20:17.000 people are doing less things together out in the world. 0:20:17.040 --> 0:20:19.639 People are reporting because you can find statistic backup for this. 0:20:19.680 --> 0:20:22.400 People seem to be lonelier than ever. Um, people are 0:20:22.440 --> 0:20:25.600 more depressed than ever. Suicide rates have risen, and while 0:20:25.640 --> 0:20:29.280 this is happening, militias and extremist groups have grown. Perhaps 0:20:29.280 --> 0:20:33.280 there's something about these organizations, um that makes them particularly 0:20:33.359 --> 0:20:36.320 attractive when folks are vulnerable due to these things, and 0:20:36.359 --> 0:20:39.040 like let's look at you know, the failure of our 0:20:39.080 --> 0:20:42.439 political system to confront these issues further feeds into the 0:20:42.520 --> 0:20:45.160 desire amongst some chunk of the populace for some sort 0:20:45.200 --> 0:20:50.159 of nihilistic cleansing violence. And again, pieces of all the 0:20:50.200 --> 0:20:53.639 pieces of this article could be could be reassembled into 0:20:53.720 --> 0:20:56.920 something with um some insight, but I I don't think 0:20:56.920 --> 0:21:00.399 Brian Michael Jenkins has much. I think it's also interesting 0:21:00.400 --> 0:21:03.719 thing to note here about because so the last thing 0:21:03.720 --> 0:21:05.520 he talks about this, oh, is the thing that formed 0:21:05.520 --> 0:21:09.320 the common sort of national identity was shared Universal Military service. 0:21:09.359 --> 0:21:14.439 And it's like, okay, the reason shared universal Military Service 0:21:14.520 --> 0:21:17.679 went away was that everyone kept murdering literally just blowing 0:21:17.680 --> 0:21:21.240 their officers up in Vietnam like that. And you know, 0:21:21.240 --> 0:21:23.640 if if you want to talk about like incredibly high 0:21:23.720 --> 0:21:27.320 levels of political polarization and like mass violence between Americans, 0:21:27.720 --> 0:21:30.800 I mean, the army basically fighting a civil war against 0:21:30.840 --> 0:21:34.720 itself in Vietnam is you know, in an enormously important 0:21:34.720 --> 0:21:37.280 part of this. And then simultaneously the sort of right 0:21:37.280 --> 0:21:41.280 wing vets returning home and you know, going Louis Beam 0:21:41.320 --> 0:21:45.439 and stuff like that. That you know, he's relying on 0:21:45.520 --> 0:21:49.199 this kind of mythos of this so there was a 0:21:49.200 --> 0:21:51.480 time when you know, it's it's it's basically made it 0:21:51.520 --> 0:21:53.920 make America great again. But sort of like, yeah, that's 0:21:55.119 --> 0:21:57.399 this type of rhetoric is actually very similar to like 0:21:57.440 --> 0:22:00.560 the return return to tradition and stuff, but like the 0:22:00.680 --> 0:22:03.280 solution to our extremism need to be going to church, 0:22:03.359 --> 0:22:07.600 church again, being part of civil organizations, joining bowling leagues, 0:22:07.640 --> 0:22:12.440 and conscripted conscripted military service. That's like, that is that 0:22:12.440 --> 0:22:15.200 that is just the same that that is very similar 0:22:15.240 --> 0:22:17.960 to like the make America grade again, returned to tradition 0:22:18.160 --> 0:22:21.439 sect because those are those are also their goals, except 0:22:21.480 --> 0:22:23.840 that they're just willing to use violence to achieve those goals, 0:22:23.880 --> 0:22:26.720 whereas this guy just wants people to start doing that again. 0:22:26.760 --> 0:22:29.200 I guess, um, I don't know. Yeah, Like in terms 0:22:29.280 --> 0:22:32.960 of like military service not leading to extremism, I mean 0:22:33.000 --> 0:22:35.840 like Oklahoma City bombing, I don't, I don't, I don't 0:22:35.840 --> 0:22:38.119 really there is other stuff going on there. But like 0:22:38.240 --> 0:22:40.680 in terms of terms of that being like an example, 0:22:40.720 --> 0:22:42.560 it is it is very silly because a lot of 0:22:43.000 --> 0:22:46.440 a lot of a lot of the guys, even inside 0:22:46.440 --> 0:22:49.000 you know, are are current like three per centers and stuff. 0:22:49.240 --> 0:22:55.119 A lot of them have former military service, so that 0:22:55.320 --> 0:22:58.320 I mean, but like, yeah, citizen militias in terms of 0:22:58.320 --> 0:23:02.920 gaining popularity specifically due to um kind of overall distrusted 0:23:02.960 --> 0:23:06.639 the federal government and the type of socialization that being 0:23:07.119 --> 0:23:12.640 online too much results in, has yes, grown grown, grown 0:23:12.640 --> 0:23:17.640 the militia movement a lot um And and I just 0:23:17.680 --> 0:23:21.000 don't see how Bowling is going to solve that issue 0:23:21.160 --> 0:23:25.000 in terms of in terms of how do we people 0:23:25.040 --> 0:23:27.800 to trust the federal government solve that issue? Garrison. But 0:23:27.800 --> 0:23:30.520 but you've never watched The Big Lebowski, so you wouldn't 0:23:30.600 --> 0:23:34.080 You wouldn't understand. I've not watched The Big Lebowski. So 0:23:34.200 --> 0:23:36.240 I'm kind of I'm kind of I'm kind of done 0:23:36.280 --> 0:23:40.640