Speaker 1: Hey, guys, ready or not, twenty twenty four is here,
Speaker 1: and we here at breaking points, are already thinking of
Speaker 1: ways we can up our game for this critical election.
Speaker 2: We rely on our premium subs to expand coverage, upgrade
Speaker 2: the studio ad staff give you, guys, the best independent.
Speaker 3: Coverage that is possible.
Speaker 2: If you like what we're all about, it just means
Speaker 2: the absolute world to have your support.
Speaker 3: But enough with that, Let's get to the show.
Speaker 4: Right.
Speaker 5: This is the legend legendary New York reporter Ross Barcan,
Speaker 5: who has his own substack, the Metropolitan Report, the Metropolitan Review,
Speaker 5: also a columnist for New York Magazine, a long time
Speaker 5: reporter here in DC, in New York.
Speaker 6: What do you what? Do you sorry?
Speaker 7: DC?
Speaker 6: We're not in DC, We're in New York. Do you
Speaker 6: what are you saying?
Speaker 3: Huge, huge showing for Zurn tonight?
Speaker 8: Honestly, I am taken aback by how large a lead
Speaker 8: he has.
Speaker 3: What's what's the current umbers? Right now?
Speaker 1: Azo, right now, you can look on the screen there,
Speaker 1: I've got issues.
Speaker 9: So it's about the same.
Speaker 1: Zorn's at forty three with eighty percent of the vote
Speaker 1: in Orn.
Speaker 8: I feel safe saying Zoron is going to be the
Speaker 8: Democratic nominee for mayor in New York City. I don't
Speaker 8: like to call elections, but I think I think we're
Speaker 8: getting very close to there. I don't see how Cuomo
Speaker 8: pulls this off, honestly at this point. Maybe there's some
Speaker 8: last burst in these final twenty percent of votes, but
Speaker 8: he holds a really significant lead in an election where
Speaker 8: it looks like more than a million people voted, a
Speaker 8: million Democrats voted.
Speaker 3: This this is a realignment election.
Speaker 1: This is what what do you mean by that ross?
Speaker 8: This means that more than any election I can remember,
Speaker 8: far more than AOC Joe Crowley, far more than I
Speaker 8: don't even know some some gubernatorial array somewhere, there has
Speaker 8: been a massive shift in how people vote, at least
Speaker 8: in the largest city in America, where a man who
Speaker 8: was governor for eleven years, who had the entire political
Speaker 8: establishment quite literally behind him, who had a super pack
Speaker 8: spending close to thirty million dollars, is losing by a
Speaker 8: significant margin to a thirty three year.
Speaker 3: Old socialist state assemblyman.
Speaker 8: That is something that even the wildest leftist forecasts could
Speaker 8: not predict.
Speaker 3: And so I had not looked at the vote yet.
Speaker 8: By neighborhood and by precinct, by assumption is with a
Speaker 8: win like this, it cannot be written off as oh
Speaker 8: it was low turnout. Oh it was the gentrifiers. Oh
Speaker 8: it was this. It was that you have this many votes.
Speaker 8: You are getting a multi racial coalition, you are getting
Speaker 8: a working class coalition, you are getting upper class people,
Speaker 8: and you're getting young people.
Speaker 3: So I wanted to warrant to the data.
Speaker 8: But right now, this is a stunning It's a massive upset. Honestly,
Speaker 8: you could call this one of the biggest upsets in
Speaker 8: American political history. I think I'm gonna put it in there.
Speaker 8: Lomo ran an awful campaign. I don't I don't as
Speaker 8: by I say, I'm gont a credit Zoron. Lomo ran
Speaker 8: an atrocious campaign, the laziest campaign I've ever seen. But
Speaker 8: this is still a monumental showing ross.
Speaker 6: Go ahead, Crystal, I.
Speaker 1: Was just gonna ask about the attacks on Zoron, accusing
Speaker 1: him of being an anti Semite, and you know what
Speaker 1: it means. This very clear rebuke of that tactic, which
Speaker 1: I think in any year now in New York City
Speaker 1: you can tell me, because you're the expert, would likely
Speaker 1: have been pretty successful, you know, would have been a
Speaker 1: very difficult thing to overcome.
Speaker 8: Yes, so ten, ten years ago, maybe even five years ago,
Speaker 8: if I you said a candidate who is pro palestigned,
Speaker 8: openly pro Palestigne and had been an anti Zionist, does
Speaker 8: not identify it like that as a muscle, yeah, and
Speaker 8: is a Muslim. If you took all these things and
Speaker 8: five years ago you'd have said no way. And now
Speaker 8: he has run up a huge margin in a very
Speaker 8: diverse city.
Speaker 3: The Israel lobby.
Speaker 8: Must be absolutely I don't know what's going through their
Speaker 8: head because you don't see rebukes quite like this very
Speaker 8: often politics.
Speaker 5: Do you remember the Jessica Ramos story from twenty fourteen,
Speaker 5: So during the twenty fourteen Gaza war, Jessica Ramos, who
Speaker 5: has gone full circle, she went left and now she
Speaker 5: endorsed Andrew Cuomo in this and you running and she
Speaker 5: got zer point four percent I think in the first round.
Speaker 5: She says, there's a head New York Post headline is
Speaker 5: one of the funniest things I've ever seen, maybe even
Speaker 5: New York Daily News. It says lawmaker expresses sympathy for
Speaker 5: people in Gaza. That was the headline. No context was needed,
Speaker 5: that was a scandalous. It was understood to be a
Speaker 5: scandalos thing. She had to apologize because she wrote a
Speaker 5: Facebook post that said, like, that's sad that so many
Speaker 5: people are getting bombed.
Speaker 8: And I remember that twenty fourteen summer very well because
Speaker 8: the entire democratic establishment lined up with Israel.
Speaker 3: Literally you had massive rallies.
Speaker 8: Every so called progressive Democrat was there cheering on Israel,
Speaker 8: cheering on the bombardment.
Speaker 3: And the shift from there has just been seismic.
Speaker 8: And we know that generational shift is happening, that that
Speaker 8: that has been ongoing. But now you have an election
Speaker 8: like this one, you see it's bigger, It's actually bigger.
Speaker 3: So I am really.
Speaker 8: As someone who thought thinks highly of Zorn's political talent
Speaker 8: and saw him for long time going places to see
Speaker 8: this kind of result.
Speaker 3: And what other have new results come in? Where are
Speaker 3: we at right now? Yeah?
Speaker 7: So here Russ, this is Adam Carlson, Polster Adam Carlson
Speaker 7: who has said stick a fork in it. Zoron Mumdani
Speaker 7: will win the first round of the Democratic primary for
Speaker 7: New York City mayor.
Speaker 3: So we would post calling it period. That's so it's
Speaker 3: fun that that's that it's finished.
Speaker 8: Right, He's not gonna get He's not gonna win brad
Speaker 8: Landers votes. So I'm looking at this map right now.
Speaker 8: Zoron won three out of five Burroughs.
Speaker 3: Wow and yeah, so uh ross.
Speaker 10: Like, you know, is this a similar to an AOC
Speaker 10: moment where someone like this wins and then the squad
Speaker 10: comes afterwards and it spreads across the country to other races,
Speaker 10: or do you view this more as a very unique race.
Speaker 11: In a vacuum.
Speaker 8: What's funny is this race is far more impressive than
Speaker 8: AOC's race. But I don't know if it's going to
Speaker 8: be as influential. I don't know yet. I can see
Speaker 8: Zorn being turned into a boogeyman because he's Muslim, because
Speaker 8: he's openly socialist, even the way AOC is not. I
Speaker 8: can see Democrats around America, some excited and some feeling consternation.
Speaker 3: I don't know.
Speaker 8: Twenty eighteen was sort of the height of resistance blue
Speaker 8: wave politics. I actually do not know. I think Zoron
Speaker 8: is undoubtedly a leader on the left. He might be
Speaker 8: the leader and this is all said and done, leading
Speaker 8: the largest city.
Speaker 3: In America if he win to the general election.
Speaker 8: That's a really good I think though, how other Democrats
Speaker 8: approach him is going to be fascinating. Some are going
Speaker 8: to be very excited to embrace it. Some are going
Speaker 8: to want to run the other way. It's going to
Speaker 8: be more complicated. But but the scale this race was
Speaker 8: waged on is like a statewide race. New York City
Speaker 8: is larger than most states in America, and it's a
Speaker 8: very diverse city. It's ethnically diverse, religiously diverse, politically diverse too.
Speaker 8: It's not just all lefties. It's a very complicated city.
Speaker 8: And so for someone to win and win so convincingly,
Speaker 8: to come from behind all all on tomorrow, you're gonna,
Speaker 8: I'm sure you're gonna hear a lot of explanations from
Speaker 8: some of the center. They're gonna say this that, but
Speaker 8: it will I think it's falling flat because turnout was
Speaker 8: big Democrats.
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, I was just gonna say, there's there's never
Speaker 1: been a Muslim mayor of New York City.
Speaker 9: There's never been a socialist.
Speaker 1: Some people have likened him to LaGuardia, you know, can
Speaker 1: you spell out do you think that there are parallels
Speaker 1: with LaGuardia as considered you know, one of the best
Speaker 1: mayors of New York City of all time.
Speaker 8: Yeah, I mean, I mean, there's certainly LaGuardia is sort
Speaker 8: of the progressive ideal of of of big city mayors. Now,
Speaker 8: LaGuardia wasn't as a come from behind candidate as Zorn was.
Speaker 8: LaGuardia was a liberal Republican running against the Democratic machine,
Speaker 8: but he'd been a popular congressman. He'd been kind of
Speaker 8: building a political operation for years. I mean, I mean
Speaker 8: Zeramamdani was mostly unknown as recently as five to six
Speaker 8: months ago, and is now poised to become the mayor
Speaker 8: of America's largest city. This is not no offense to
Speaker 8: Chicago or to Boston or to any.
Speaker 3: Of these places.
Speaker 8: But this, this city is a massive, massive place, and
Speaker 8: so I think Loguardia is a parallel. You have the
Speaker 8: Sewer socialist mayors of the early twentieth century. The mayors
Speaker 8: of Milwaukee were socialist. I think Zorn is coming from
Speaker 8: that good government reform model, delivering public services, delivering public goods.
Speaker 8: He's not running on ending capitalism, mostly because mayors cannot
Speaker 8: end capitalism. It's a very economics first campaign, and it's
Speaker 8: a good I think it's a good message for all
Speaker 8: Democratic I.
Speaker 1: Could take out Wall Street, that would strike a blow
Speaker 1: at capitalism.
Speaker 5: Wearing tickets could try.
Speaker 7: This brings up a question I wanted to ask, which is,
Speaker 7: you know you often see from the primaries to the
Speaker 7: general election, the the pivot to the center.
Speaker 3: How do you expect Zoron?
Speaker 7: You followed his campaign so closely, you've truck to him,
Speaker 7: how do you expect him to handle now actually going
Speaker 7: city wide and having a feel not just in a primary.
Speaker 6: And let me piggyback onto that.
Speaker 5: What do you think this does to Cuomo running in
Speaker 5: the general I was very.
Speaker 8: Sure before this night that Cuomo was running in the
Speaker 8: general election as an independent with a massive super pack
Speaker 8: behind him. That may still happen, but this is a
Speaker 8: convincing victory for Zorn. This is a large victory. This
Speaker 8: is not two points, this is very big. So for
Speaker 8: Cuomo it's going to be harder to pivot into being
Speaker 8: the super pack candidate now. I think Zoron is going
Speaker 8: to have to do outreach to a lot of different
Speaker 8: interest groups communities that he did less of in the
Speaker 8: primary because he is going to be mayor. Even though
Speaker 8: he ran against the power elite, that power elites sought
Speaker 8: to destroy him. You're mayor of New York City, You're
Speaker 8: going to have to take meetings with financiers, with developers.
Speaker 3: It will happen.
Speaker 8: So the pivot might not mean any new policy or
Speaker 8: kind of any rhetorical shift necessarily. But I think he's
Speaker 8: somebody's He's very charismatic, he likes to to deal with people.
Speaker 3: He'll hilly, he will talk to anyone.
Speaker 8: So I expect there to be significant outreach to a
Speaker 8: lot of the groups that have been most hostile to him.
Speaker 8: I think he's smart enough to try to attempt a
Speaker 8: as big attempt as possible.
Speaker 3: But look, there are forces.
Speaker 8: In this city that are going to want to destroy
Speaker 8: him and destroy his mayrality.
Speaker 3: That is a fact.
Speaker 8: And they tried with Doblasio. And this is much bigger
Speaker 8: than Deblasio was. It was a center left progressive democrat
Speaker 8: who came out of the political establishment.
Speaker 3: This is something very different.
Speaker 8: So these headheadge fund finance types, they will think of
Speaker 8: ways to destroy him.
Speaker 3: Zoron Magzil have breakfast with them.
Speaker 10: In ways like they would destroy him, Like what could
Speaker 10: they do to him?
Speaker 1: As made well, Yeah, it was partly CuMo, who was
Speaker 1: trying to destroy Deblasio.
Speaker 9: I mean, I remember the battles they were having.
Speaker 3: Yeah, so Cloma, Oh absolutely.
Speaker 8: I think they're gonna appeal to Kathy Hochel, Hopeful is
Speaker 8: a centrist Democrat. I think they're gonna look to hope
Speaker 8: Goal to kind of be a check on Zoron if
Speaker 8: he's mayor.
Speaker 3: Look, I think the super Pack failed miserably, but.
Speaker 8: They can always spend more money, and when your mayor,
Speaker 8: perhaps those attacks lened differently. There's a media apparatus that
Speaker 8: is some is depending on what outlet very hostile to Zoron.
Speaker 8: The New York Times and New York Post editorial boards
Speaker 8: were very anti Zoron. So there is a sort of
Speaker 8: media establishment that is against him. Now, younger journalists and
Speaker 8: media types like him. So I think there's a generational
Speaker 8: divide where older media is opposed younger media in favor.
Speaker 3: He will have a lot of.
Speaker 8: Challenges if he becomes mayor, and I do expect these
Speaker 8: these forces to work against him. It'll be very interesting
Speaker 8: to see how he how he deals with that, how
Speaker 8: he works with them.
Speaker 1: Well, and Ryan and Ross, either one of you guys
Speaker 1: can reflect on this. It's very fraught for the last
Speaker 1: because anytime you have a loftist who does a poor
Speaker 1: job of governing, it's an indictment of the entire left.
Speaker 1: If you have a stress who fails at governing, that
Speaker 1: was just one guy.
Speaker 3: Like Eric Adams.
Speaker 4: MBO.
Speaker 3: Yeah, right, and Drew.
Speaker 5: Also if you have if you have a leftist who
Speaker 5: is good at governing, like Michelle Wou in Boston, you
Speaker 5: never hear about.
Speaker 6: It again, you don't know it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, Now that's the interesting with Zoron.
Speaker 8: Everyone was like Brandon Johnson, Brandon Johnson, I tweet this,
Speaker 8: Sam and wait a second, there's a progressive Elizabeth Warren
Speaker 8: actallyte governing Boston with a sixty one percent approval rating.
Speaker 3: Why can't Zoron be Michelle Woo. In fact, I think there.
Speaker 8: Are real parallels there in zarn he's a competent person,
Speaker 8: he's very bright. I think he's going to hire very
Speaker 8: good people if he's mayor. I think he's going to
Speaker 8: attempt a sort of reformist good government type administration because look,
Speaker 8: it's important to do the public these that the progressive
Speaker 8: leftist policies, the things he ran on. But but good
Speaker 8: government and anti corruption is very important here because Eric
Speaker 8: Adams is so corrupt. It's going to be very important
Speaker 8: for Zorn to not being boiled in any scandals because
Speaker 8: he will he will go down fast. If that happens,
Speaker 8: he can stay clear and have a very clean administration.
Speaker 8: It's gonna go a long way, and I think he will.
Speaker 1: Are you sad to see you gonna jump?
Speaker 6: Well, we're gonna let Ross go.
Speaker 5: Oh if you have one more question, because we're gonna
Speaker 5: Andrew Epstein, communications director for j join us in a second.
Speaker 6: But you have a wrap up question for Ross.
Speaker 1: I do have a wrap up for Ross, which is
Speaker 1: aren't you gonna miss Eric Adams content creation?
Speaker 8: He's a great he's a great content creator and he's
Speaker 8: running in the general election, so he's.
Speaker 3: Gonna be content creating through November.
Speaker 8: And this is what's very This is very interesting right
Speaker 8: now because Cuomo is down so much. Eric Adams, who
Speaker 8: is left for dead, He's going to try to be
Speaker 8: the power elite Kennedy. He's gonna go to these financiers
Speaker 8: that Bill Ackmans of the world and Michael Bloombergsy know what,
Speaker 8: loll this guy blew it come back to me?
Speaker 3: Yeah, support me. So look out for that too interesting.
Speaker 9: Ross.
Speaker 8: Thank you, I mean I I call him from New
Speaker 8: York Magazine. My substack, Ross Barkin Political currents. Look on
Speaker 8: the substack, subscribe to it. Lots of mayoral race writing
Speaker 8: to come. Yeah, Ross, thanks so much, really appreciate it.
Speaker 5: We're joined now by former Congressman Jamal Bowman's.
Speaker 12: Not Crystal Ball right there? What's what's up? Yo? Crystal?
Speaker 12: You're great, y'all. Love your work, work doing that dope ship.
Speaker 4: I'm sweating because I've been hugging people and celebrating.
Speaker 12: Because it's a hundred hell so excuse me for sweating
Speaker 12: and know that. What's up home girl? Is that Emily?
Speaker 3: I'm sorry.
Speaker 12: I'm sure you're great too. What's up? You got some questions?
Speaker 12: What's some questions?
Speaker 6: What what happened?
Speaker 12: Why?
Speaker 5: Why was he able to do this in the in
Speaker 5: a way that candidates in the past.
Speaker 4: Hapn's well z run is exception Know, he's an incredible
Speaker 4: person and an incredible candidate. He has the right values,
Speaker 4: he has the right policies. He's probably one of the
Speaker 4: best communicators we've ever seen. And he's exceptional. Number one,
Speaker 4: Number two, His team is exceptional. They have like I
Speaker 4: call this campaign manager like a pianist. She struck all
Speaker 4: the right chords at the right time. Team exceptional. Three.
Speaker 12: This is New York, mother FN's city.
Speaker 4: So we're talking about diversity, beautiful people, language, culture, different ideas,
Speaker 4: and so the fear mongering and the BS it's not
Speaker 4: gonna work here the same because this is New York City.
Speaker 4: So you put those things together in addition to, oh,
Speaker 4: by the way, capturing the hearts and minds of the
Speaker 4: people to the point where you got thirty thousand volunteers
Speaker 4: knocking on a million doors and como. You know, he's
Speaker 4: trying to coast right and pablishment. If they know what's
Speaker 4: good for them, they take this as the resurrection of
Speaker 4: their freaking party. So we'll see man. But for me,
Speaker 4: that it came down to all of that.
Speaker 5: No matter what mom Donnie got asked, whether it was
Speaker 5: about Israel, whether it was about the culture war, whether
Speaker 5: it was.
Speaker 6: About what it didn't matter.
Speaker 12: He brought it back.
Speaker 5: To affordability in New York City and free and freeze
Speaker 5: the rent, like it.
Speaker 6: Always back to his message.
Speaker 5: Is he just better at that than other Democrats and
Speaker 5: progressives or did he have almost a more a thin
Speaker 5: have a different idea about like, no, everything is going
Speaker 5: to come back to this one thing.
Speaker 7: Yeah.
Speaker 4: I mean, when you run campaigns, you have to be disciplined,
Speaker 4: So you have to be disciplined in your movements politically
Speaker 4: and disciplined in your communication. And he was disciplined in
Speaker 4: his communication, and that is hard to do because everybody's human.
Speaker 4: You got emotions involved, all kinds of stuff. But he
Speaker 4: was very, very very disciplined that so so you got
Speaker 4: to be disciplined. And then secondly, again he's an excellent communicator.
Speaker 4: So it's not just about cutting and pasting what they've done.
Speaker 4: It's about excellent candidates who are excellent communicators and they
Speaker 4: have to listen, they have to be orators to a
Speaker 4: certain extent, and they have to also be disciplined.
Speaker 12: So it's already above.
Speaker 5: Do you think this does this open anything up for
Speaker 5: the Democratic Party?
Speaker 8: Like?
Speaker 6: Does this does open.
Speaker 4: If the Democratic Party is smart and I'm speaking specifically
Speaker 4: Hakeem Jeffries, Greg Meeks, Jim Cliburn, Barack Obama, Kamala Harris,
Speaker 4: by every allly establishment leaders, they would get one hundred
Speaker 4: percent behind Zorn for the general and they would do
Speaker 4: it this week to set the tone because they're not
Speaker 4: gonna beat Maga trying to do all the stab limid
Speaker 4: shit like they've been doing the last couple of years.
Speaker 4: That's not gonna work. And so they better understand. I
Speaker 4: wish they would have understood this before. But they are
Speaker 4: superstars in the Democratic Party. You know, alc is one
Speaker 4: of them. You know, some people disagree with her. Whatever
Speaker 4: you disagree with, she's still a superstar. Nowran's another one.
Speaker 4: You gotta uplift your superstars. Man, Like you know, I'm
Speaker 4: a sports fan. You gotta let your great players make
Speaker 4: plays to win championships. You can't fucking put them on
Speaker 4: the bench and say we're gonna put some seventy year
Speaker 4: old white man in charge of some committee. Think you're like,
Speaker 4: that's what, that's what, that's good for America. That shit
Speaker 4: don't make sense. I'm sorry, I don't mean to talk
Speaker 4: one for me. And then you guys, hurry up.
Speaker 5: I got CNN and like Richie seven minutes, Uh, Richie
Speaker 5: Torres doesn't this doesn't this suggest that Richie Torres is
Speaker 5: vulnerable and somebody like a Jamal Bowman run.
Speaker 12: Against Can we stop talking about Richie? Rich is a
Speaker 12: what motherfucker.
Speaker 4: Let Richie Trres keep doing his bullshit and let's keep
Speaker 4: doing our ship. We don't care about Richie tares son.
Speaker 4: Richie too is not consequential. Please, let's not lift him
Speaker 4: to him. We don't need Richau.
Speaker 1: What's it nice to see APAC take this big loss tonight?
Speaker 1: And what does that mean for other Canadis in the future.
Speaker 4: Listen, I don't I don't want to underestimate APAC because
Speaker 4: they have a lot of resources, So I don't really see.
Speaker 12: This as a loss for them. I see himaw as
Speaker 12: a win for us.
Speaker 4: And so you know what, what what I hope they
Speaker 4: begin to understand is your fear mongering, your hate, your racism,
Speaker 4: your money is not enough.
Speaker 12: You got to actually like win on the issue.
Speaker 4: You gotta actually win on the issues and and and
Speaker 4: have good values, right, like yo, we were not supported
Speaker 4: the killer the starving of children, like we not support
Speaker 4: that because we're actually human beings, ye, right? And so
Speaker 4: for them, hopefully actually again I'll put them in the
Speaker 4: Richard Tories category.
Speaker 12: Not about that. For us as progressives, we we got
Speaker 12: this victory.
Speaker 4: But now we got to win a general and now
Speaker 4: we got a show we can govern I'm sorry, maybe
Speaker 4: so Ron's coming here?
Speaker 6: It comes?
Speaker 12: Yeah, Hi yet yet? All right, we got it.
Speaker 4: Hurry up, I'm sorry, I got seeing that in like
Speaker 4: two minutes. I'm listening.
Speaker 12: Thank you, Bud, Greece. Love y'all keep going your work,
Speaker 12: appreciate it.
Speaker 3: Yeah, thank you for having us.
Speaker 10: So we've got Andrew Epstein here, he was what's your
Speaker 10: official title?
Speaker 11: The communications director?
Speaker 12: Video communications director?
Speaker 6: How are you feeling right now?
Speaker 11: Very confident, very excited. I mean, we found the early
Speaker 11: voting totals. We walked into today where two hundred thousand
Speaker 11: New Yorkers had already voted for saran Uh. We won
Speaker 11: a majority of Burroughs in early voting, and not just
Speaker 11: the kind of caricature of a left wing insurgent campaign.
Speaker 11: We are leading in the hearts of immigrant New York
Speaker 11: and South Richmond, Hill and Corona. We're winning districts in
Speaker 11: the south shore of Staten Island, all over Manhattan. We're
Speaker 11: competitive in the Bronx. We are building the multi ethnic,
Speaker 11: multi lingual, multi generational, working class coalition that this campaign
Speaker 11: had always set at its north star, and that's starting
Speaker 11: to show up in the data tonight.
Speaker 5: So when the so what what do you think you
Speaker 5: did differently to overcome the problem that the left has had,
Speaker 5: which is you can do well and what I think
Speaker 5: Michael Lang was calling the commed corner.
Speaker 6: You know, like you know.
Speaker 11: Of Brooklyn.
Speaker 5: You know you do well among the hips, among the hipsters,
Speaker 5: but breaking out beyond that, it's what crippled Bernie Sanders campaign.
Speaker 6: What what did you do differently that broke through?
Speaker 11: It is just correct a little or challenge some of
Speaker 11: the caricature, even of those voters that often get ascribed
Speaker 11: as the heart of insurgent progressive democratic socialist campaigns. Yes,
Speaker 11: many people who vote for Democratic socialists have college degrees,
Speaker 11: many of them have parents who have had middle class
Speaker 11: or white collar jobs. But they are also tenants in
Speaker 11: the most expensive city in the country and have struggled
Speaker 11: to actually realize any of that sort of educational attainment
Speaker 11: or cultural capital. You can't pay your rent with cultural capital.
Speaker 11: You pay your rent with money, and people aren't making enough.
Speaker 11: So even among the kind of like caricature of our
Speaker 11: base voters, there's a different story to be told than
Speaker 11: I think has been. But we've also found out long
Speaker 11: beyond that, and we did it with a relentless focus
Speaker 11: on an economic agenda, rejecting all of the narratives about
Speaker 11: what this race should have or would have been about.
Speaker 11: I think a lot of candidates and pundits and consultants
Speaker 11: over corrected from twenty twenty one or looked straight at me.
Speaker 6: In what way, what do you mean?
Speaker 11: They thought this would be a campaign about first, about
Speaker 11: the corruption in city Hall, about the kind of law
Speaker 11: and order messaging that became dominant at the end of
Speaker 11: twenty twenty one. Even that I think was quite different
Speaker 11: in reality than what was said. Eric Adams said he
Speaker 11: was running to deliver both justice and safety. As a
Speaker 11: burninstool farmer, we said from the beginning, this is about
Speaker 11: the cost of living crisis. This is about one in
Speaker 11: four New Yorkers living in poverty. This is about the
Speaker 11: inability to pay rent, to pay your mortgage, to have
Speaker 11: raised kids in the city, to retire in the city.
Speaker 11: And we developed and Zoron went out with a program
Speaker 11: that was memorable and relevant and deliverable, and even as
Speaker 11: early as December January, Zoron would move around the city
Speaker 11: and they wouldn't just recognize him as like, Oh, I
Speaker 11: liked your video, or you're really dynamic they'd look at
Speaker 11: him and they go freeze. The red bus is fast
Speaker 11: and free, universal childcare right. And that is both the
Speaker 11: premise of the campaign and also how we intend to
Speaker 11: win a mandate for delivering those things. We don't want
Speaker 11: people to just elect Zoram because he's a dynamic figure.
Speaker 11: We want them to elect him to actually then hold
Speaker 11: him accountable to the exact policies he has laid out
Speaker 11: from the beginning of this campaign. And the second piece
Speaker 11: is that we would not have been able to deliver
Speaker 11: that message to voters without the largest grassroots campaign this
Speaker 11: city has ever seen. We knocked on fifty thousand doors
Speaker 11: today alone in temperatures that felt over one hundred. We've
Speaker 11: knocked one more than one point six million doors since
Speaker 11: this campaign began, more than fifty thousand volunteers all across
Speaker 11: the five boroughs. It's the combination of that focus on
Speaker 11: an economic agenda, on what we are going to do
Speaker 11: for people, not just what we have done for people,
Speaker 11: and the fact that that was being delivered by this
Speaker 11: incredible grassroots movement across the city.
Speaker 5: And the thing I've been writing about my entire career
Speaker 5: and has never really materialized is the idea that if
Speaker 5: you excite people, they will come out and.
Speaker 6: Vote for you.
Speaker 5: It never quite, but it never it's you can't find
Speaker 5: much evidence for today to do.
Speaker 11: For them, not just what your character is.
Speaker 6: So freeze the rents.
Speaker 11: Frustrate like that, right, and now, if we win, if
Speaker 11: we win this nomination, if we defeat the other candidates
Speaker 11: in the in the general, we want to be held
Speaker 11: to account for delivering those exact things that we promise.
Speaker 6: It's a it's it's similar maybe to Georgia.
Speaker 5: If you remember the Georgia Senate elections, Democrats were like,
Speaker 5: if you vote for us, we'll give you two thousand dollars, right,
Speaker 5: and give us the Senate.
Speaker 11: Version of that, and that worked out pretty well.
Speaker 5: People were like, I vote for you, and you'll give
Speaker 5: me two thousand dollars. Okay, that's a good.
Speaker 11: Thing in in in some pointners of the democratic establishment,
Speaker 11: the consultant class that promising people things is like the crass,
Speaker 11: cheeting crass. It's kind of low. Politics shouldn't be about
Speaker 11: Politics should be about like you know your your your character,
Speaker 11: your you know what you know, how how good you sound?
Speaker 12: You know?
Speaker 10: No, so you shouldn't just do you shouldn't just do
Speaker 10: Obama voice.
Speaker 6: You should give them something.
Speaker 11: You should give them something. Yeah, a lot more than
Speaker 11: they have right now in this country and in the city.
Speaker 11: And politics is about organizing those people to deliver those
Speaker 11: things and make life better and easier.
Speaker 10: I had a question to for you about sort of
Speaker 10: the hinge points of this campaign. What were like the
Speaker 10: key markers that this campaign was growing. Were there are
Speaker 10: moments that sort of made this campaign to get you
Speaker 10: to this moment here? I'm thinking about the AOC endorsement.
Speaker 10: Was there a first viral video? What were those hinge
Speaker 10: points for this campaign?
Speaker 11: There's a couple.
Speaker 5: I mean it's I mean, it was the Breaking Points bump. Obviously,
Speaker 5: it was the Breaking.
Speaker 11: Points interview was Emily and Ryan, you know it was
Speaker 11: that was I can I just say I'm actually a
Speaker 11: very big fan of breaking points. This is a little surreal.
Speaker 11: That's how we got hey, that's how we got here.
Speaker 6: We will We would not be let in if you
Speaker 6: weren't a fan, So thank you.
Speaker 11: I have been yelled at today by press from around
Speaker 11: the world how they are not being allowed into this argument.
Speaker 11: I said, no, drop site, breaking points. You're in.
Speaker 1: That's it.
Speaker 12: That's awesome, this is what.
Speaker 11: It's going to be.
Speaker 10: Yeah, some of the nine of sitting room, some of
Speaker 10: those hinge points, like what were those moments?
Speaker 11: I mean, I think I think one of them is
Speaker 11: one that I think Zoron went on to talk about,
Speaker 11: which was after Donald Trump was elected and everybody was
Speaker 11: in this state of shell shock. What was this about?
Speaker 12: What happened? What did we do?
Speaker 11: We said, let's just go ask people like, let's go
Speaker 11: to the hearts of immigrant in New York. Let's go
Speaker 11: to South Richmond Hill, Let's go to Fordham Road, Let's
Speaker 11: go to working class immigrant and black and brown neighborhoods
Speaker 11: that swung big for Trump, and just ask people, why'd
Speaker 11: you do it? We really really made a sign that
Speaker 11: said let's talk politics. This was five days after the
Speaker 11: presidential stood on the corner and said let's talk. And
Speaker 11: we heard again and again and again. I used to
Speaker 11: have more money in my pocket. Things used to be
Speaker 11: more affordable. The government is not delivering for me. But
Speaker 11: there are endless wars around the world, you know. And
Speaker 11: obviously Trump cynically and disingenuously spoke to those things, in
Speaker 11: addition to also promising to punish his enemy and you know,
Speaker 11: playing on a kind of cruelty as well. He also
Speaker 11: said cheaper prices and of wars, right, And those are
Speaker 11: the things that we heard all over the city, especially
Speaker 11: in those neighborhoods. And when Zoron then said I'm running
Speaker 11: for mayor to freeze your rent, make buses fast and free,
Speaker 11: deliver universal childcare, they said, I'll come back and I'll
Speaker 11: vote for you. And we are actually seeing that tonight.
Speaker 6: How much of that?
Speaker 5: And then if you guys, I won't have a question,
Speaker 5: but you know, how much of that agendas, affordability, freeze,
Speaker 5: the rent, buses, fast and free kind of float out
Speaker 5: of those conversations.
Speaker 11: So the kind of three pillars of this campaign preceded that.
Speaker 11: We launched the campaign on October twenty third, just a
Speaker 11: few blocks from here at a different venue in Long
Speaker 11: Island City, and we launched with those three three signature promises.
Speaker 11: We have added more, we have talked about more since that,
Speaker 11: but but those have been the core three and those
Speaker 11: are the ones that people remember and literally shout at
Speaker 11: Zoran as he moves around the city, and those have
Speaker 11: always stayed the same. And I think it's that that focus,
Speaker 11: that relentless discipline on that agenda that has popularized it
Speaker 11: around the city and allowed us to stay the chorus
Speaker 11: despite as you know, a lot that's been thrown out us.
Speaker 11: Oh yeah, like Bernie with the metacare poal thing.
Speaker 3: That's the phrase that Emily, Yeah, Emily, do.
Speaker 11: You have any questions?
Speaker 9: Can you hear us? Okay? Andrew? I wanted to make
Speaker 9: it okay perfect.
Speaker 1: I just wanted to ask you a little bit about
Speaker 1: all the attacks on zoron as you know, anti semitic,
Speaker 1: and how you guys thought about those attacks and also
Speaker 1: how he coped with them, because I know we saw
Speaker 1: a moment where he got emotional on the campaign trail
Speaker 1: in response to a question about that.
Speaker 11: It's painful, you know, it's it's really painful to have
Speaker 11: those accusations, terrible, terrible accusations leveled that you when they're
Speaker 11: not true and they've never been true, and they've never
Speaker 11: been who he is or what the spirit of this
Speaker 11: campaign has been about, which has always in all of
Speaker 11: his politics has been about universality. Every single person deserves
Speaker 11: the same thing, freedom, justice, dignity, peace, everybody, no exception.
Speaker 11: That's been what's motivated his politics and to have that
Speaker 11: twisted into bigotry or hate against any group of people.
Speaker 11: To have that and then to be relentlessly hounded about
Speaker 11: a very narrow set of questions when he has spent
Speaker 11: the whole campaign focused on lowering costs, delivering affordability, making
Speaker 11: the city work better for working people is difficult. And
Speaker 11: he has had moments of vulnerability where he's also said,
Speaker 11: I haven't been more vulnerable because of what happens, especially
Speaker 11: to people of color, to Muslims, when they express emotion,
Speaker 11: it can be twisted in a different way. He had
Speaker 11: that authentic moment, the genuine moment of a profound, owned
Speaker 11: sadness about that. But he's incredibly resilient and has spence
Speaker 11: and just every single time gotten back on why we're
Speaker 11: running this campaign, and that has broken through. It really has,
Speaker 11: you know, I mean, yeah, so please, Oh no.
Speaker 7: I was going to say, actually, now, it looks like
Speaker 7: you guys are in a position remarkably to be talking
Speaker 7: to New Yorkers who are voting outside of just the
Speaker 7: Democratic primary.
Speaker 3: And if that's the case, people.
Speaker 7: Have been sort of relentlessly battered with that message from
Speaker 7: the Cuomo campaign and also the message that businesses are
Speaker 7: about to flee in mass and the city's going to
Speaker 7: collapse if Zoron becomes mayor so as you guys kind
Speaker 7: of may have to broaden your messaging now to people
Speaker 7: outside the dun primary.
Speaker 3: What is your message to.
Speaker 7: People who have heard all of the scare mongering about
Speaker 7: what could happen under a Mamdani mayorship.
Speaker 11: You know, one thing Zarana said throughout this whole campaign
Speaker 11: is there is not an ideological majority in New York City,
Speaker 11: but there is a majority of people who feel disillusioned
Speaker 11: with the political system and alienated from the economic system
Speaker 11: and feel the strain of the cost of living crisis.
Speaker 11: And so I actually, I don't think the message really changes.
Speaker 11: I think it continues to be this relentless economic agenda
Speaker 11: is focus on cost of living, on our core policies.
Speaker 11: We're already seeing that resonate beyond registered Democrats. And I
Speaker 11: think Zoran in the same way that Bernie Sanders is
Speaker 11: one of the most popular politicians in America outside of.
Speaker 9: You just call it.
Speaker 6: It's a brad Lander. Let me move.
Speaker 10: Okay, it looks like there's a little bit of chaos.
Speaker 3: It seems like is Brad.
Speaker 11: Lander taking the stage.
Speaker 10: Uh, we don't have audio yet on this, but Emily, what.
Speaker 12: Are you saying?
Speaker 3: Can you thank Andrew for us?
Speaker 11: Of course?
Speaker 1: Yeah, thank you Andrew, My pleasure.
Speaker 11: This has been thanks, such a pleasure and honor. I
Speaker 11: can't wait to let's see you guys. We'd love to
Speaker 11: have you back sometime. My pleasure, anytime.
Speaker 9: Thank you, guys.
Speaker 1: Thanks so much for everyone who joined the live watch
Speaker 1: party of the Zoran versus Cuomo election last night. We
Speaker 1: were supposed to during that live stream get to covering
Speaker 1: a bunch of the new details regarding Trump and Iran
Speaker 1: and the leaked intel report that actually the attacks on
Speaker 1: the Iranian nuclear sites were not fully successful, but we
Speaker 1: were so busy covering the election results that came out
Speaker 1: much faster than anyone predicted. Because of the margin, the
Speaker 1: extraordinary margin of Zoron's victory.
Speaker 9: Didn't actually get to it.
Speaker 1: But that's okay, because we've got some new comments from
Speaker 1: Trump out this morning that I want to go ahead
Speaker 1: and bring to you.
Speaker 9: So let me go ahead and put this up on
Speaker 9: the screen.
Speaker 1: So, as I just said, Trump is raging that a
Speaker 1: leaked intel report came out in multiple news outlets indicating
Speaker 1: that contrary to what he had said, those Iranian nuclear
Speaker 1: sites that we dropped dropped massive bombs on, they were
Speaker 1: not actually completely destroyed. So he is very upset and
Speaker 1: he is disputing by the way that Intel and will
Speaker 1: get to more on that later, but just take a
Speaker 1: listen to what he is saying about the news outlets
Speaker 1: that revealed this information.
Speaker 13: Very bad demeaned by fake news.
Speaker 14: CNN, which is back there, believed in wasting time, wasting it.
Speaker 14: Nobody's watching them, so they just wasted a lot of time,
Speaker 14: wasting my time. And the New York Times they put
Speaker 14: out a story that, well, maybe they were hit, but
Speaker 14: it wasn't bad. Well, it was so bad that they
Speaker 14: ended the war.
Speaker 10: It ended the war.
Speaker 14: Somebody said in a certain way that it was so devastating. Actually,
Speaker 14: if you look at Hiroshimo, if you look at Nagasaki,
Speaker 14: you know that ended a war too. This ended a
Speaker 14: war in a different way, but it was so devastating. Also,
Speaker 14: they have out of Dubai just came that Iran's Foreign
Speaker 14: ministry this is a rans Farmers says, it's near its
Speaker 14: nuclear installations were very badly damaged by the American strike.
Speaker 14: So what bothered me about these reports with fake reports
Speaker 14: put out by the New York Times, failing. I got
Speaker 14: the failing New York Times because it's doing terribly.
Speaker 8: Without me, it would be doing.
Speaker 12: No business at all. But and by fake New.
Speaker 14: CNN and MSDNC, all of these terrible people. You know,
Speaker 14: they have no credibility. You know, when I started, there
Speaker 14: were ninety four percent credibility the media. Now it's at
Speaker 14: sixteen percent. And I'm very proud of it because I've
Speaker 14: exposed it for what it is.
Speaker 12: But when I.
Speaker 14: When I saw them starting to question the caliber of
Speaker 14: the attack, was it bad, Well, it was really bad.
Speaker 14: It was devasted. They obliterated fa You can't get into
Speaker 14: the tunnels, they just put that over that just came out.
Speaker 14: They can't. There's nothing, there's no way you can even
Speaker 14: get down. The whole thing is collapsed to the disaster.
Speaker 9: And I think, so there you go.
Speaker 1: That's what Trump is saying about all of this. And
Speaker 1: this is a pretty exuordinary development as well. Let me
Speaker 1: put this up on the screen here, so our own
Speaker 1: intel this is the New York Times report that Trump
Speaker 1: is referring to.
Speaker 3: Here.
Speaker 1: There was clearly a leak from the intel community saying
Speaker 1: preliminary classified findings indicate The attacks sealed off the entrances
Speaker 1: to two facilities, but did not collapse their underground buildings.
Speaker 1: I'll read you a little bit of this preliminary classified
Speaker 1: US reports is the American bombing of three nuclear sites
Speaker 1: in Iran set back the country's nuclear program by only
Speaker 1: a few months. According to officials familiar with the findings,
Speaker 1: the strike sealed off the entrances to two of the facilities,
Speaker 1: did not collapse their underground buildings. Before the attack, US
Speaker 1: intel agencies had said if Iran tried to rush making
Speaker 1: a bomb, it would take about three months. After the
Speaker 1: US bombing run and days of attacks by the Israeli
Speaker 1: Air Force, the report by the Defense Intelligence Agency now
Speaker 1: estimated the program had been delayed, but by less than
Speaker 1: six months. That report also said much of iran stockpile
Speaker 1: of and enrich uranium was moved before the strikes, which
Speaker 1: destroyed little of the nuclear material. Iran may have moved
Speaker 1: some of that to secret locations. I suspect basic you know,
Speaker 1: based on publicly available satellite information and other analyzes of
Speaker 1: people who know a lot more about this than I do.
Speaker 1: I suspect that assessment is in fact correct, But also
Speaker 1: I strongly suspect that the people who are leaking this
Speaker 1: assessment of saying, like, what are you talking about? You
Speaker 1: obliterated these nuclear sites? You didn't, you did, you barely
Speaker 1: accomplish anything. They moved all of the enriched uranium beforehand
Speaker 1: because they had such a heads up here, and you
Speaker 1: didn't even destroy these facilities. And oh, by the way,
Speaker 1: there are other facilities. So yeah, you've set them back
Speaker 1: a little bit, but ultimately not that much. I am
Speaker 1: quite sure the people who are leaking that assessment are
Speaker 1: people who want us to go back to war directly
Speaker 1: with Iran. So the information they're putting out, which again
Speaker 1: I believe is accurate based on what we know publicly
Speaker 1: of you know what we were and weren't able to
Speaker 1: accomplish with these bombs that we foolishly dropped on Iran.
Speaker 1: They're trying to say, listen, you're claiming victory. You're claiming
Speaker 1: that Iran can no longer pursue a nuclear weapon. You
Speaker 1: President Trump have laid down foolishly again a red line
Speaker 1: saying Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. You didn't accomplish that.
Speaker 1: So they're trying to push a continued logic to war.
Speaker 1: Now this is all Trump's own fault, because we've all
Speaker 1: been saying, you know, myself, Zager, Emily Ryan, like Dave Smith, all,
Speaker 1: you know, plenty of people who and plenty of people
Speaker 1: probably within his own administration as well. Misteve Bannons and
Speaker 1: the Tucker Carl since the world have been saying, no,
Speaker 1: if you actually want to try to prevent Iran from
Speaker 1: racing towards a nuclear weapon, you've just done the worst
Speaker 1: possible thing. The best thing you could have done is
Speaker 1: remain in diplomatic negotiations and be able to pursue an
Speaker 1: actual diplomatic settlement like oh, the JCPOA that Trump got
Speaker 1: out of in his first administration. So by bombing them,
Speaker 1: he has created more logic for them now to pursue
Speaker 1: a nuclear weapon and made that much more likely. So
Speaker 1: he is given ammunition to the Hawks and the neocons
Speaker 1: who want to keep this war going and want us
Speaker 1: to fully commit to total war with Iran. So this
Speaker 1: leaked intel report, this is the next sort of salvo
Speaker 1: from that group. Again, I think it's accurate. I think
Speaker 1: he's you know, I think he's lying when he says
Speaker 1: this is these were completely obliterated and is just trying
Speaker 1: to be able to claim a victory. And so what
Speaker 1: they're trying to do is give ammunition to those who say, no,
Speaker 1: you did not, You did not destroy the nuclear weapons program.
Speaker 1: You yourself said they can't have a nuke. So that
Speaker 1: would mean you have to go back to bombing them.
Speaker 1: You have to re engage in this conflict, and you know,
Speaker 1: and get more fully invested in directly using bombs, destroying
Speaker 1: the Iranian capability. Because Trump himself really blew up the
Speaker 1: possibility of a diplomatic very likely destroy the possibility of
Speaker 1: a diplomatic resolution at this time. So the next move
Speaker 1: from Trump, and this is again absolutely extraordinary. This is
Speaker 1: from Barack Revide. He says, the White House sent to
Speaker 1: reporters a statement by the Israeli Atomic Energy Commission that
Speaker 1: claims US strike on Photo destroyed the site's critical infrastructure
Speaker 1: rendered the enrichment facility inoperable. Revied goes on accurately to state,
Speaker 1: this is a highly unusual case of the White House
Speaker 1: releasing a statement on behalf of an Israeli security agency.
Speaker 1: The statement was not distributed to the Israeli or international
Speaker 1: media by the Prime Minister's Office, which is responsible for
Speaker 1: the Atomic Energy Commissions Press. So, just like the US,
Speaker 1: Trump relied on the Israeli assessment that the Iranians were
Speaker 1: actively pursuing a nuclear weapon, discarding our own intelligence community,
Speaker 1: discarding the assessment of the IAEA, the international body that
Speaker 1: was monitoring this. He relied on the Israelis convincing him no, no, no,
Speaker 1: I promise they were pursuing a nuclear weapon.
Speaker 9: That's why you have to bomb.
Speaker 1: Now you have the president sharing not our own intelligence
Speaker 1: community assessment of what happened here. Again, the Israeli's assessment
Speaker 1: of what happened here just absolutely extraordinary and so unusual.
Speaker 1: What is going on in the same time, you know,
Speaker 1: there's a lot of indications that the Iranians were able
Speaker 1: to strike significant blows against Israel. Let me just show
Speaker 1: you a little bit of the Iranians after this quote
Speaker 1: unquote ceasefire, however, along this hills or whatever it means
Speaker 1: at the moment, there were a lot of Iranians who
Speaker 1: were out in the street. You can see them celebrating
Speaker 1: here because you know, if you think about it, from
Speaker 1: their perspective, they took much more Very likely, although it's
Speaker 1: kind of difficult to tell, they took much more significant blows,
Speaker 1: certainly in terms of the death toll and the infrastructure
Speaker 1: toll than the Israelis did. But the Israeli's goal was
Speaker 1: regime collapse of regime change. Israeli's goal was to destroy
Speaker 1: the Iranian nation. The Iranian nation was not destroyed. The
Speaker 1: government is probably actually stronger and enjoys more credibility based
Speaker 1: on the reports we've gotten with the people. So from
Speaker 1: that perspective, the Iranians feel like they've achieved a success
Speaker 1: because they were able to exact enough damage on the
Speaker 1: Israelis that the Raelis kind of had to take this
Speaker 1: ceasefire and at least take a break.
Speaker 9: Now.
Speaker 1: You know, I'm very skeptical that this is going to
Speaker 1: be an end to the conflict because I don't think
Speaker 1: bb nat Nyahuo woke up today and was like, you
Speaker 1: know what, Iran can, Let's live, and let live my
Speaker 1: multi decade goal of destroying this country. I'm all finished
Speaker 1: with that. I'm all through and you can see that
Speaker 1: from the you know, the leaked intel report is an
Speaker 1: indication that the people who want more war, they are
Speaker 1: still going to work and they have some tools and
Speaker 1: some leverage because of the corner Trump has backed himself
Speaker 1: into in a lot of respects, they still have some
Speaker 1: leverage to try to effectuate their outcome of total and
Speaker 1: complete war. So the Iranians feel actually that they have
Speaker 1: something to celebrate right now because they feel like they
Speaker 1: were able to do enough damage to Israel that that's
Speaker 1: what created the compelling reason for Israel to need to regroup.
Speaker 1: We had the reports that there were low on interceptors.
Speaker 1: You know, the military sensors really kicked in hard to
Speaker 1: keep us from seeing how widespread the extent of the
Speaker 1: damage was. But let me go ahead and show you this.
Speaker 1: President Trump himself admitted that the Israelis took quite significant damage.
Speaker 9: Let me go ahead and.
Speaker 1: Play this for you as well. This is also from
Speaker 1: that NATO summit.
Speaker 7: Bigger right.
Speaker 13: Look, you know, they've got a country, and they've got oil,
Speaker 13: and they're for smart people and they can come back.
Speaker 13: Israel hit very hard, especially the last couple of days.
Speaker 13: Issue has hit really hard. Those ballistic missiles. Boy, they
Speaker 13: took out a lot of buildings and they've been great
Speaker 13: being that. Yeah, who should be very proud of himself,
Speaker 13: and they've really been great.
Speaker 1: So he says there that Israel was hit very hard.
Speaker 1: Steve Bannon echoed a similar sentiment and explains, and I
Speaker 1: think he's right about this, explained that the part of
Speaker 1: the reason for the ceasefire right now is that Israel
Speaker 1: needed to be saved. In his words, let me go
Speaker 1: ahead and play for you what he had to say.
Speaker 15: Yes, so they took the This ceasefire was as much
Speaker 15: to save Israel. That's the hidden story here. They bid
Speaker 15: off way more than they could chew. They were played
Speaker 15: out as far as yesterday was a brutal day for
Speaker 15: the citizens of Israel, took horrible incomings, particularly in Tel Aviv,
Speaker 15: and I guess Bersheba also they needed this because they
Speaker 15: were running a defensive ammunition and Presidence Trump stepped in
Speaker 15: there with the help of guitar. Look, you know, we've
Speaker 15: come a long way since seven years ago when Qatar,
Speaker 15: you know, would not worked with us on stopping the
Speaker 15: financing of Islamic terrorism, the financing of it. And they
Speaker 15: come a long way. They've stepped in the middle of
Speaker 15: the situation in Gaza, and they stepped in the middle here.
Speaker 15: And President Trump is going his way to praise them,
Speaker 15: and he's not going to have his way to praise
Speaker 15: net Nyahu's government, which I think is getting to be
Speaker 15: an issue.
Speaker 1: So pretty interesting comments there. He said, you know, the
Speaker 1: ceasefire really was to save the Israelis, very counter the
Speaker 1: media narrative, but as I said, I think there's something
Speaker 1: to that. That's not to say that the especially the
Speaker 1: initial Israeli onslaught in Iran was quite devastating. You know,
Speaker 1: the number of officials who they were able to assassinate,
Speaker 1: you know, the amount of infrastructure they were able to destroy.
Speaker 1: But it's also very clear they were depending on they
Speaker 1: could not accomplish their objectives, and they still can't accomplish
Speaker 1: their objectives, which are regime collapse without the UN the
Speaker 1: assistance of the United States. And so we were reading
Speaker 1: all these reports from Wall Street Journal and other places
Speaker 1: that this As this war went on, it was a
Speaker 1: race between okay, how many missiles do the Iranians have
Speaker 1: and how many interceptors do the Israelis have, And some
Speaker 1: of the tension between you know, Israelis was spilling out
Speaker 1: into the public at the amount of damage that the
Speaker 1: Iranians were able to, you know, we're able to effectuate.
Speaker 1: Within Israel, you had citizens who of course are you know,
Speaker 1: having to go into underground bunkers.
Speaker 9: Every day.
Speaker 1: Life is completely disrupted, the airport is completely closed. And
Speaker 1: so I do think that the reason why Israel was
Speaker 1: willing to accept the ceasefire at this point was a
Speaker 1: chance to regroup. Now that doesn't mean they're done, far
Speaker 1: from it. I guarantee you Net Yahoo is scheming right
Speaker 1: now how to get this thing kicked off again. And
Speaker 1: those are incredibly powerful, powerful forces. We also don't have
Speaker 1: a track record of Donald Trump in any way consists
Speaker 1: stantly standing up to Israel at all. In fact, I
Speaker 1: think you should continue to be you know, maybe he's
Speaker 1: earnest in his frustration with NATANYAHUO.
Speaker 9: We don't know.
Speaker 1: But it's also possible that this is also theater, because
Speaker 1: we've seen theater deployed in the service of furthering this
Speaker 1: conflict directly from Donald Trump before. So in any case,
Speaker 1: where we are this morning, is Trump is very upset
Speaker 1: at the leaks from the neocons about the assessment that
Speaker 1: the nuclear sites were not destroyed. He is using Israeli
Speaker 1: intelligence to try to, you know, assert that no, no, no,
Speaker 1: it accomplished the goals. But because of the way that
Speaker 1: he has backed himself into a corner of destroying his
Speaker 1: own diplomatic negotiations, putting in place a hard red line
Speaker 1: of Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon. He's left himself
Speaker 1: vulnerable to these sorts of you know, these sorts of
Speaker 1: manipulations to try to get this thing kicked off again,
Speaker 1: and not assuming that he himself doesn't share the goal
Speaker 1: of the Israelis of getting back into this conflict after
Speaker 1: some sort of a pause, which I don't think we
Speaker 1: can put off the table either. The last piece that
Speaker 1: I wanted to share with you is we're getting the
Speaker 1: first pulling in about how popular Trump bombing these Iranian
Speaker 1: nuclear sites ultimately was. I will tell you with the
Speaker 1: Republican base and specifically with the magabase, it's now that
Speaker 1: Trump did it, it's very popular. Ninety four percent of
Speaker 1: MAGA aligned Republicans say they support the strikes, even though
Speaker 1: before Trump did it, the numbers were not that great
Speaker 1: for you know, they were still like kind of favorable,
Speaker 1: but pretty mixed. Once Trump did it, you now have
Speaker 1: ninety four percent of self identified MAGA Republicans who are like, oh,
Speaker 1: Trump did it, so it must be great. Broadly though
Speaker 1: the public much less supportive and let me go ahead
Speaker 1: and play this Harry Entin clip, and then I'll tell
Speaker 1: you a little bit on the other side why I
Speaker 1: think this is actually pretty extraordinary that these numbers, even
Speaker 1: initially are as low as they are.
Speaker 16: Yeah, these things are moving quite quickly, but these are
Speaker 16: initial readings. And I will say, from a historical perspective,
Speaker 16: I am surprised that the net approval rating is so
Speaker 16: low on these strikes. And it's in two different polls.
Speaker 16: It's our CNN SSRs poll twelve points underword one thumbs down.
Speaker 16: How about the Rotner Zipsos poll. Look at that the
Speaker 16: exact same reading, minus nine points underwater two thumbs down.
Speaker 16: And why am I so surprised from a historical perspective,
Speaker 16: because usually air strikes rate fairly highly. What are we
Speaker 16: talking about. Let's go back through the time machine net
Speaker 16: approval of US air strikes. You see it here around
Speaker 16: minus eleven points underwater on the average. Compare it to
Speaker 16: isis back in twenty fourteen, fifty eight points in the
Speaker 16: positive direction. So this is a nearly seventy point difference.
Speaker 16: That is why I'm so surprised from a historical perspective,
Speaker 16: because normally these air strikes rate quite highly but this one,
Speaker 16: you go back through history, it rates as the lowest
Speaker 16: that I could possibly find on the historical record.
Speaker 1: And that is exactly why it surprised me as well,
Speaker 1: and why I was wrong, somewhat wrong in my assessment
Speaker 1: of what the popularity of these attacks would be. I
Speaker 1: was concerned that, actually, you know, among certainly I knew
Speaker 1: the Republicans would support it, and they do, but I
Speaker 1: thought some significant chunk of independence would as well, simply
Speaker 1: because throughout my life, people in this country have supported
Speaker 1: bombing other nations.
Speaker 9: And that's just the unfortunate fact.
Speaker 1: The propaganda machine ramps up, people get the sense that
Speaker 1: this is going to be mission accomplished, that it's going
Speaker 1: to be quick and easy and painless, and we're going
Speaker 1: to accomplish whatever goal we're being sold at the time.
Speaker 9: And so, at least in.
Speaker 1: The very early days, they're usually, as Harry Enton points out,
Speaker 1: there there's usually pretty broad support. The fact that there's
Speaker 1: not really is so noteworthy, so incredibly noteworthy. I would
Speaker 1: attribute it to a few things. Number One, there was
Speaker 1: so little effort at a propaganda campaign build up. You know,
Speaker 1: it just was like all of a sudden, we're supposed
Speaker 1: to be kind of out and overhere, convinced that what
Speaker 1: was going on in Iran was existential over the assessment
Speaker 1: that we got from our own intel community just a
Speaker 1: few months ago. I mean, I do that that testimony
Speaker 1: from Tolsey Gabbard, which was played everywhere where, she's saying no,
Speaker 1: very clearly no, our assessment continues to be they're not
Speaker 1: pursuing a nuclear weapon. I think that really undercut the
Speaker 1: very haphazard and unimpressive propaganda efforts that came out of
Speaker 1: the Trump administration to try to justify this. So I
Speaker 1: think that's part of it. I think the fact that
Speaker 1: you know now have this much more robust independent media
Speaker 1: landscape is another significant part of it, where it's just,
Speaker 1: you know, if you're going to manufacture consent, you're going
Speaker 1: to have to do a lot more work than they
Speaker 1: were ultimately able to do. And so people just weren't
Speaker 1: really buying that this was necessary right now, that this
Speaker 1: was going to accomplish the goals, that this wasn't going
Speaker 1: to create incredible tremendous risks. And then a third factor
Speaker 1: is just you know, most of the country is very wary,
Speaker 1: understandably so, of getting involved in some new Middle Eastern quagmire.
Speaker 1: Regime change does asterisk boondoggle. So maybe most of the
Speaker 1: elites in this country haven't learned the lesson, But according
Speaker 1: to these numbers, the majority of Independence and Democrats certainly
Speaker 1: have learned the lesson and are not willing to gamble
Speaker 1: the way that President Trump really did with these strikes
Speaker 1: on Iranian nuclear facilities. Now where we are today, there's
Speaker 1: you know, a possibility that things quiet down for a while. Again,
Speaker 1: I'm very skeptical, and I know Soccer is also very
Speaker 1: skeptical that this is the end and it's wrapped up
Speaker 1: in peace forever, as Trump says. But we're also very
Speaker 1: fortunate that the Iranians decided, in response to our dropping
Speaker 1: these you know, a dozen giant bunk or buster thirty
Speaker 1: thousand pounds bombs on one of their key nuclear sites,
Speaker 1: attacking two other key nuclear sites, that their response to
Speaker 1: that was so muted and so theatrical, you know, it
Speaker 1: was just meant to be a show of Hey, we
Speaker 1: could get you in Qatar at your you know, largest
Speaker 1: air base in the region, but we're going to tell
Speaker 1: you in advance to make sure there's no damage, so
Speaker 1: that there's a possibility of some sort of a de
Speaker 1: escalitary off ramp. Now, I think the logic of the
Speaker 1: Israelis again in agreeing to this ceasefire in this moment,
Speaker 1: is not because they want the war to be over.
Speaker 1: It's not because they feel they've accomplished their objectives. Their
Speaker 1: objectives are regime change or regime collapse that obviously hasn't
Speaker 1: been achieved. It's because they needed to regroup, as Trump
Speaker 1: himself seems to indicate. As Steve Bannon says there, Israel
Speaker 1: needed a chance to regroup so that they could continue
Speaker 1: a sort of phased approach. But their desire to destroy
Speaker 1: this regime has not ebbed. They still continue to be
Speaker 1: incredibly powerful within this administration, as we saw in the
Speaker 1: first Trump administration as well. And so you know, my
Speaker 1: fear is that right now this is far from over.
Speaker 1: There are also some reports, and I want to see
Speaker 1: this confirmed in more places, that the Iranians is Iranians,
Speaker 1: Oh my god, Iranians are withdrawing from the nuclear oversight regime, which.
Speaker 9: I mean many.
Speaker 1: I'm not the only one that John Meerscheimer tell you this.
Speaker 1: Jeffrey Sachs will tell you this. Anyone who's looking at
Speaker 1: this from an objective perspective, will tell you that what
Speaker 1: we have done has created all the incentive in the
Speaker 1: world for the Iranians now to develop nuclear weapons outside
Speaker 1: of an inspections regime in the same way by the
Speaker 1: way that the Israelis did and will create a similar
Speaker 1: logic for other countries around the world. So we already
Speaker 1: have some early indications that that's exactly the direction that
Speaker 1: they're moving in. So that's what I've got for you
Speaker 1: this morning, Sagar and Now will be back with a
Speaker 1: regular full show tomorrow. We've already got some fantastic guest booked.
Speaker 1: I'm excited to, you know, to bring that to you.
Speaker 1: We'll have a full breakdown of all the latest book
Speaker 1: of gard to Iran. Sure we'll can continue to cover
Speaker 1: There's been a delicious miltdown over Zoron's victory, both from
Speaker 1: the more Joe types who or you know, there's some
Speaker 1: real hard coping on the Democratic side. The Republicans are
Speaker 1: losing their minds. You've got these psycho groups, Zionist groups
Speaker 1: like Betar Worldwide is saying that the Jews must evacuate
Speaker 1: New York City. I mean, based on the margin of
Speaker 1: victory here I'm quite confident that zor On probably one
Speaker 1: Jewish voters overall in New York City. So anyway, there's
Speaker 1: so much to talk about with that race. Continued to
Speaker 1: talk about what it's going to mean for the future
Speaker 1: and what the reaction has been, so I'm sure we'll
Speaker 1: have more of that for you as well. In the meantime, guys,
Speaker 1: enjoy your day, thank you for your support, and I
Speaker 1: will see you.
Speaker 9: Sud