1 00:00:02,640 --> 00:00:05,360 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Bloomberg Penl Podcast. I'm Paul swing you, 2 00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:07,680 Speaker 1: along with my co host Lisa Brahma wits. Each day 3 00:00:07,720 --> 00:00:10,240 Speaker 1: we bring you the most noteworthy and useful interviews for 4 00:00:10,320 --> 00:00:12,520 Speaker 1: you and your money, whether at the grocery store or 5 00:00:12,560 --> 00:00:15,480 Speaker 1: the trading floor. Find a Bloomberg Penl podcast on Apple 6 00:00:15,520 --> 00:00:18,000 Speaker 1: podcast or whatever you listen to podcast as well as 7 00:00:18,000 --> 00:00:21,680 Speaker 1: that Bloomberg dot com to as the economies begin to 8 00:00:21,760 --> 00:00:25,079 Speaker 1: reopen is going out to restaurants and bars and actually 9 00:00:25,560 --> 00:00:29,760 Speaker 1: interacting with people. Barry Ridholt, founder Redholt's Wealth Management. He's 10 00:00:29,800 --> 00:00:32,440 Speaker 1: a Bloomberg Opinion Colmless and host of Masters in Business. 11 00:00:32,800 --> 00:00:35,800 Speaker 1: He's got a column at least that discusses the grim 12 00:00:35,800 --> 00:00:38,519 Speaker 1: American bar scene and why many of them may not 13 00:00:38,680 --> 00:00:41,680 Speaker 1: even survive this pandemic. Barry, thanks so much for joining 14 00:00:41,720 --> 00:00:44,879 Speaker 1: us here. Kind of what did you learn as you 15 00:00:45,440 --> 00:00:49,880 Speaker 1: chatted with the host of Bar Rescue? So a couple 16 00:00:49,880 --> 00:00:54,320 Speaker 1: of things. First, um, you know it is grim, and 17 00:00:54,320 --> 00:00:58,240 Speaker 1: and what first got me focused on exactly how grim 18 00:00:58,240 --> 00:01:02,000 Speaker 1: it was? Was before I spoke to John Taffer, I 19 00:01:02,040 --> 00:01:06,000 Speaker 1: spoke to Pat la Frida of lafreda meat purveyor. You 20 00:01:06,080 --> 00:01:09,080 Speaker 1: might know that name. Because they created the original shake 21 00:01:09,120 --> 00:01:12,559 Speaker 1: Shack burger, and there a supplier to restaurants like Peter 22 00:01:12,680 --> 00:01:16,520 Speaker 1: Luger's and all the high end stake places, and Lafrida 23 00:01:16,640 --> 00:01:20,200 Speaker 1: told us that half of the restaurants he supplies to 24 00:01:20,600 --> 00:01:24,440 Speaker 1: are not doing takeout or a curbside service, and of 25 00:01:24,480 --> 00:01:28,440 Speaker 1: those who are, they're running between twenty five and thirty 26 00:01:28,840 --> 00:01:33,520 Speaker 1: of their normal volumes. So already we see the restaurant 27 00:01:33,560 --> 00:01:37,120 Speaker 1: industry is is going to be in trouble because they're 28 00:01:37,120 --> 00:01:39,400 Speaker 1: just not seeing the sort of revenues they were previously. 29 00:01:40,160 --> 00:01:43,240 Speaker 1: Um Taffer takes it a step further and he says, 30 00:01:43,920 --> 00:01:47,000 Speaker 1: it is so expensive to reopen after you're closed for 31 00:01:47,080 --> 00:01:50,480 Speaker 1: three months. Think about it, Everything in the refrigerator has 32 00:01:50,520 --> 00:01:54,280 Speaker 1: been thrown out, you have no inventory. You have to 33 00:01:54,320 --> 00:01:58,200 Speaker 1: get some line of credit just to stock up the refrigerator. 34 00:01:58,640 --> 00:02:03,400 Speaker 1: And that's what led to say the bars and restaurants 35 00:02:03,440 --> 00:02:07,640 Speaker 1: are very likely to not make it through this whole crisis. 36 00:02:07,920 --> 00:02:10,280 Speaker 1: And he's not alone in those kinds of estimates. There 37 00:02:10,320 --> 00:02:12,560 Speaker 1: are a lot of estimates coming out. This has been 38 00:02:12,800 --> 00:02:15,560 Speaker 1: at one of, if not the most hard hit sector, 39 00:02:16,000 --> 00:02:18,519 Speaker 1: and it's hard to see how it's going to emerge. 40 00:02:18,560 --> 00:02:21,880 Speaker 1: That quickly. I'm wondering what the restaurant of the future 41 00:02:22,360 --> 00:02:26,000 Speaker 1: looks like. Is this going to permanently change the concept 42 00:02:26,440 --> 00:02:30,120 Speaker 1: of dining out to a more takeout model, kits that 43 00:02:30,200 --> 00:02:33,480 Speaker 1: you can cook at home. That type of transition just 44 00:02:33,520 --> 00:02:36,360 Speaker 1: to be more resilient through all types of waves of 45 00:02:36,400 --> 00:02:39,720 Speaker 1: the economy. You know, I kind of divide the world 46 00:02:39,800 --> 00:02:44,360 Speaker 1: into the pre and post vaccine eras and and once 47 00:02:44,440 --> 00:02:49,000 Speaker 1: we have a treatment and the vaccine so people are comfortable. Look, 48 00:02:49,040 --> 00:02:51,720 Speaker 1: there's a reason why restaurants where and bars were as 49 00:02:51,800 --> 00:02:56,320 Speaker 1: popular as they were pre crisis. Humans are social animals. 50 00:02:56,320 --> 00:02:58,400 Speaker 1: We like to go out, we like to break bread together, 51 00:02:58,840 --> 00:03:02,760 Speaker 1: drink together, social lies. I just can't imagine a future 52 00:03:02,840 --> 00:03:06,720 Speaker 1: where bars and restaurants have a six foot social distancing 53 00:03:06,760 --> 00:03:10,320 Speaker 1: and you're not sitting um in a loud, crowded, busy room, 54 00:03:10,760 --> 00:03:13,959 Speaker 1: but with a piece of plexiglass between you and anybody else, 55 00:03:14,000 --> 00:03:16,280 Speaker 1: which I asked somebody else out on a date with 56 00:03:16,400 --> 00:03:20,640 Speaker 1: plexic glass in between your kind of unlikely. But but 57 00:03:20,880 --> 00:03:25,200 Speaker 1: that said, you know, a little context also helps. Restaurants 58 00:03:25,200 --> 00:03:29,280 Speaker 1: and bars are a notoriously challenging business. In the first place, 59 00:03:29,639 --> 00:03:33,440 Speaker 1: they have razor thin margins, a lot of built in costs. 60 00:03:34,040 --> 00:03:37,440 Speaker 1: The restaurants that I expect are going to hang around 61 00:03:38,120 --> 00:03:41,160 Speaker 1: very often, at least outside of the city, are the 62 00:03:41,200 --> 00:03:46,120 Speaker 1: ones that physically own their space, so rent isn't an issue. 63 00:03:46,280 --> 00:03:48,960 Speaker 1: They're probably not even if they've been around long enough, 64 00:03:48,960 --> 00:03:51,680 Speaker 1: they're probably not even paying a mortgage. They just have 65 00:03:51,800 --> 00:03:56,200 Speaker 1: their property tax. That's a very different scenario than someone 66 00:03:56,400 --> 00:04:00,880 Speaker 1: at a busy intersection corner in Manhattan paying big giant 67 00:04:00,960 --> 00:04:06,040 Speaker 1: rent to some big um skyscraper owned by one of 68 00:04:06,040 --> 00:04:09,440 Speaker 1: the big reeds. That's a very different situation. And you 69 00:04:09,480 --> 00:04:11,240 Speaker 1: don't know how those you know how on arts can 70 00:04:11,280 --> 00:04:14,440 Speaker 1: those companies come out of three, four or five months 71 00:04:14,440 --> 00:04:18,520 Speaker 1: of a fraction of their revenue but of their course 72 00:04:19,200 --> 00:04:20,800 Speaker 1: apparent want to shift gears a little bit. I know 73 00:04:20,880 --> 00:04:23,920 Speaker 1: you recently interviewed one of my favorite authors, Michael Lewis, 74 00:04:23,960 --> 00:04:26,279 Speaker 1: author of Liars Poker, which was just such a fun 75 00:04:26,320 --> 00:04:29,680 Speaker 1: book back in the day. Uh you know, I guess 76 00:04:29,760 --> 00:04:33,400 Speaker 1: the conclusion was an article the U s under Trump 77 00:04:33,480 --> 00:04:36,240 Speaker 1: is like a team without a coach, was one of 78 00:04:36,240 --> 00:04:39,839 Speaker 1: your recent columns. What Michael Lewis mean about that? So 79 00:04:40,680 --> 00:04:44,599 Speaker 1: two really interesting projects he is working on, both kind 80 00:04:44,600 --> 00:04:48,160 Speaker 1: of connected in the same place. The first is the 81 00:04:48,160 --> 00:04:52,039 Speaker 1: book he wrote right after the election called The Fifth Risk, 82 00:04:52,640 --> 00:04:57,160 Speaker 1: and it focuses on Governor Chris Christie, who was head 83 00:04:57,400 --> 00:05:01,640 Speaker 1: of the Trump transition team. It's actually law that once 84 00:05:01,680 --> 00:05:04,520 Speaker 1: you become a major party nominee, you have to put 85 00:05:04,560 --> 00:05:07,880 Speaker 1: together lists of all these people um who are going 86 00:05:07,960 --> 00:05:11,680 Speaker 1: to be able to slot into important um positions within 87 00:05:11,720 --> 00:05:16,000 Speaker 1: the government. You don't want to allow that transition period 88 00:05:16,120 --> 00:05:18,400 Speaker 1: to put the country at risk, either in terms of 89 00:05:18,880 --> 00:05:21,760 Speaker 1: national security, of defense, or anything like that. And you 90 00:05:21,880 --> 00:05:25,479 Speaker 1: also want to facilitate everybody hitting the ground running pretty quickly. 91 00:05:25,520 --> 00:05:29,200 Speaker 1: That executive transition of power should be smooth and flawless. 92 00:05:29,720 --> 00:05:33,480 Speaker 1: And to everybody's shock, the day after he won the election, 93 00:05:33,920 --> 00:05:37,960 Speaker 1: Trump fired the entire transition team and basically threw away 94 00:05:38,080 --> 00:05:41,599 Speaker 1: four months of work. And and in the book The 95 00:05:41,640 --> 00:05:47,160 Speaker 1: Fifth Risk, Lewis talks about, you know, the problem with 96 00:05:47,200 --> 00:05:51,520 Speaker 1: not having experts in in their various roles at places 97 00:05:51,640 --> 00:05:54,039 Speaker 1: like the National Institute of Health or the Center for 98 00:05:54,160 --> 00:05:58,000 Speaker 1: Disease Control is that if something happens, well, we're not 99 00:05:58,080 --> 00:06:01,039 Speaker 1: prepared for it. And turned out that the book was 100 00:06:01,120 --> 00:06:05,480 Speaker 1: very prescient given what's been going on with COVID uh nineteen. 101 00:06:05,520 --> 00:06:10,200 Speaker 1: Now hold that aside, because that was last year. Uh 102 00:06:10,560 --> 00:06:14,960 Speaker 1: In he started a podcast, Hold Against the Rules, and 103 00:06:15,000 --> 00:06:19,760 Speaker 1: he looks at different aspects of sports and life. And 104 00:06:19,800 --> 00:06:22,520 Speaker 1: where Barry, We're gonna have to leave it there. We'll 105 00:06:22,520 --> 00:06:24,400 Speaker 1: have you back on to talk more about that. That's 106 00:06:24,400 --> 00:06:27,359 Speaker 1: Barry rid Holts, Bloomberg opinion columnist and host of Masters 107 00:06:27,400 --> 00:06:31,000 Speaker 1: in Business on Bloomberg. Grady also founder and chair of 108 00:06:31,040 --> 00:06:36,400 Speaker 1: the rid Holtz Wealth Management Group. Well over the past 109 00:06:36,600 --> 00:06:40,360 Speaker 1: several days, President Donald Clumps been raging against Twitter, since 110 00:06:40,400 --> 00:06:42,680 Speaker 1: the social media platform that helped fault him to the 111 00:06:42,760 --> 00:06:46,320 Speaker 1: presidency slap the fact checked links on a pair of 112 00:06:46,320 --> 00:06:48,039 Speaker 1: his tweets. To get a sense of what this really 113 00:06:48,120 --> 00:06:52,080 Speaker 1: means for Twitter and free speech, we welcome cast Sunstein. 114 00:06:52,160 --> 00:06:56,360 Speaker 1: Cast is a Bloomberg opinion calumnist, a Harvard law professor, 115 00:06:56,440 --> 00:06:58,920 Speaker 1: and the author of a new book entitled Too Much 116 00:06:58,960 --> 00:07:02,240 Speaker 1: Information To will be out this July from m I 117 00:07:02,320 --> 00:07:04,960 Speaker 1: T Press. Professor. Thanks so much for joining us here, 118 00:07:05,080 --> 00:07:08,839 Speaker 1: give us your thoughts here. What's really happening here between 119 00:07:09,080 --> 00:07:12,360 Speaker 1: Twitter and President Trump? What's really at the at the 120 00:07:12,400 --> 00:07:16,440 Speaker 1: foundation of what's going on here? The foundation is had 121 00:07:16,520 --> 00:07:19,160 Speaker 1: nothing to do with President Trump. The foundation is that 122 00:07:19,320 --> 00:07:22,600 Speaker 1: Twitter adopted a policy after I'm sure a lot of 123 00:07:22,640 --> 00:07:27,040 Speaker 1: internal discussions that isn't about Vice President Biden or President 124 00:07:27,040 --> 00:07:30,560 Speaker 1: Trump or about a famous scientist. It just says that 125 00:07:30,640 --> 00:07:34,360 Speaker 1: if they are misleading claims on its platform, it's going 126 00:07:34,440 --> 00:07:37,800 Speaker 1: to respond generally in a very gentle way by having 127 00:07:37,800 --> 00:07:41,280 Speaker 1: a label that said get the facts here with the link. 128 00:07:41,880 --> 00:07:44,720 Speaker 1: So if you post on Twitter saying, you know, the 129 00:07:44,760 --> 00:07:48,160 Speaker 1: more cigarettes, the less cancer, everyone should smoke to ensure 130 00:07:48,200 --> 00:07:52,680 Speaker 1: that they live forever, Twitter's policy would say get the 131 00:07:52,720 --> 00:07:57,160 Speaker 1: facts here. And that's uh been applied now to the president, 132 00:07:57,240 --> 00:08:01,320 Speaker 1: and it's just an application of a policy adopted well, 133 00:08:01,640 --> 00:08:06,040 Speaker 1: Professor Substine, I'm wondering, though, consistency has been an issue 134 00:08:06,040 --> 00:08:09,240 Speaker 1: for Twitter in terms of other tweets that President Trump 135 00:08:09,240 --> 00:08:11,400 Speaker 1: and others have put out there that perhaps they haven't 136 00:08:11,440 --> 00:08:14,560 Speaker 1: fact checked as much, and some people saying why now, 137 00:08:14,960 --> 00:08:18,120 Speaker 1: why this one? Can you give us a sense of 138 00:08:18,160 --> 00:08:22,640 Speaker 1: the legal standard in following some sort of understandable protocol 139 00:08:22,800 --> 00:08:25,240 Speaker 1: in when they interfere and when they don't, and how 140 00:08:25,240 --> 00:08:30,280 Speaker 1: that might come to hurt Twitter actually going forward? Okay, Well, 141 00:08:30,320 --> 00:08:34,640 Speaker 1: the fundamental background fact is that Twitter isn't governed by 142 00:08:34,679 --> 00:08:37,800 Speaker 1: the U. S. Constitution. So if Twitter said we're only 143 00:08:37,840 --> 00:08:42,640 Speaker 1: going to have Republicans on our platform, are only Democrats? 144 00:08:42,679 --> 00:08:46,400 Speaker 1: Are only things that take a certain stand on immigration? 145 00:08:46,600 --> 00:08:51,280 Speaker 1: That would raise no constitutional question. Uh it appears that 146 00:08:51,360 --> 00:08:57,000 Speaker 1: there aren't statutory restrictions either, though that's not a clear meaning. 147 00:08:57,040 --> 00:08:59,320 Speaker 1: Twitter has a lot of room as the lot ask 148 00:08:59,320 --> 00:09:03,280 Speaker 1: stands to run its platform as it's he's fit. So 149 00:09:03,320 --> 00:09:08,280 Speaker 1: the legal question isn't um very lively right now. It 150 00:09:08,360 --> 00:09:11,640 Speaker 1: might become lively or eventually, but basically that's not the 151 00:09:11,679 --> 00:09:17,040 Speaker 1: main concern. Twitter Is policy of putting on labels and 152 00:09:17,080 --> 00:09:21,720 Speaker 1: warnings is relatively new. Most of President Trump's tweets don't 153 00:09:21,760 --> 00:09:26,120 Speaker 1: have factual errors. President Trump's critics complain of those that do, 154 00:09:26,400 --> 00:09:29,520 Speaker 1: but the majority don't. And that's true of anyone who's 155 00:09:29,559 --> 00:09:34,160 Speaker 1: regularly on Twitter. I hope that's probably an overstatement on 156 00:09:34,160 --> 00:09:38,960 Speaker 1: Twitter don't mostly have factual errors. Uh So, given the 157 00:09:39,040 --> 00:09:42,640 Speaker 1: volume of factual errors on Twitter, just like given the 158 00:09:42,720 --> 00:09:47,360 Speaker 1: volume of people who are shoplifters, the enforcement authorities aren't 159 00:09:47,360 --> 00:09:49,480 Speaker 1: going to be able to respond a hundred percent of 160 00:09:49,520 --> 00:09:56,040 Speaker 1: the time. Here the the the correction, what's called the 161 00:09:56,120 --> 00:10:00,559 Speaker 1: label that's more precise involved a claim of out of 162 00:10:01,880 --> 00:10:05,000 Speaker 1: voter fraud being rampant, where you have mail in balance, 163 00:10:05,160 --> 00:10:09,480 Speaker 1: and evidently that's that's misleading. Twitter didn't even say, by 164 00:10:09,559 --> 00:10:11,920 Speaker 1: the way, it was misleading. If that is potentially misleading, 165 00:10:12,440 --> 00:10:14,640 Speaker 1: and to Twitter didn't say it was false, that would 166 00:10:14,640 --> 00:10:17,880 Speaker 1: have been fair to say that it's potentially misleading. Therefore 167 00:10:17,960 --> 00:10:21,880 Speaker 1: we'll put our response in and that's that's completely fair 168 00:10:21,920 --> 00:10:25,360 Speaker 1: to do. Professor. There's also another legal question here, and 169 00:10:25,360 --> 00:10:27,400 Speaker 1: that is freedom of speech, and it's one that's been 170 00:10:27,440 --> 00:10:30,840 Speaker 1: invoked by President Trump and it's also been invoked by 171 00:10:30,920 --> 00:10:33,160 Speaker 1: others who say freedom of press is part of the 172 00:10:33,200 --> 00:10:37,559 Speaker 1: issue too with respect to Twitter. What freedom should we 173 00:10:37,679 --> 00:10:42,440 Speaker 1: be thinking of when we frame this issue legally? Well, 174 00:10:42,679 --> 00:10:47,800 Speaker 1: if um, let's say the Law Street Journal decided to 175 00:10:47,880 --> 00:10:51,319 Speaker 1: have an editorial policy of a certain kind, the First 176 00:10:51,320 --> 00:10:55,640 Speaker 1: Amendment doesn't play in at all. If Facebook decides that 177 00:10:55,760 --> 00:10:58,280 Speaker 1: it's news feed is going to go in a certain direction, 178 00:10:58,880 --> 00:11:02,920 Speaker 1: there's no constitutional issue, and there's probably no legal issue 179 00:11:03,440 --> 00:11:06,400 Speaker 1: that is that the Constitution is really important to see 180 00:11:06,679 --> 00:11:09,719 Speaker 1: applies only to government, and that's part of freedom. By 181 00:11:09,720 --> 00:11:12,840 Speaker 1: the way, if you want to say or do certain 182 00:11:12,880 --> 00:11:16,160 Speaker 1: things the Constitution doesn't apply to you. The one exception, 183 00:11:16,200 --> 00:11:18,680 Speaker 1: which is an interesting one, is if you enslave someone, 184 00:11:19,000 --> 00:11:23,400 Speaker 1: then the Constitution kicks in. As a cultural matter, Twitter, 185 00:11:23,520 --> 00:11:27,960 Speaker 1: though it's relatively new, it's business model and its success 186 00:11:27,960 --> 00:11:31,440 Speaker 1: really and it's legitimacy depend on being a kind of 187 00:11:31,440 --> 00:11:35,840 Speaker 1: free for all, and that that's not a legal of idea, 188 00:11:36,000 --> 00:11:41,079 Speaker 1: it's just a business idea. Like you know, uh, Reddit 189 00:11:41,320 --> 00:11:44,440 Speaker 1: or YouTube. They have a lot of stuff on them 190 00:11:45,040 --> 00:11:47,840 Speaker 1: and that's probably very good it certainly in the case 191 00:11:47,880 --> 00:11:50,920 Speaker 1: of YouTube and Twitter, it's part of what makes them, 192 00:11:51,000 --> 00:11:54,960 Speaker 1: as you know, positive, as they often not always as 193 00:11:55,000 --> 00:11:58,520 Speaker 1: positive as they often are, and that means that Twitter should, 194 00:11:58,559 --> 00:12:02,000 Speaker 1: if it's to provide the public services providing tread very 195 00:12:02,080 --> 00:12:05,160 Speaker 1: lightly on freedom of speech. And what we had was 196 00:12:05,200 --> 00:12:08,360 Speaker 1: so light. It's kind of astounding to see the flare 197 00:12:08,440 --> 00:12:11,600 Speaker 1: up on the part of the White House. Facebook. Twitter 198 00:12:11,640 --> 00:12:14,040 Speaker 1: didn't even say it was false, It just said get 199 00:12:14,080 --> 00:12:17,920 Speaker 1: the facts on and seeing it, you could think the 200 00:12:17,920 --> 00:12:20,120 Speaker 1: facts are going to be exactly what the president said. 201 00:12:21,360 --> 00:12:25,080 Speaker 1: So President, it's interesting, you know, professor, when we think 202 00:12:25,120 --> 00:12:28,040 Speaker 1: about President Trump, one of the questions is simply, as 203 00:12:28,040 --> 00:12:30,600 Speaker 1: it relates to some of these social media platforms Facebook 204 00:12:30,640 --> 00:12:35,000 Speaker 1: and Twitter. Are they are these facebooks and twitters of 205 00:12:35,000 --> 00:12:38,200 Speaker 1: the world. Are they media companies? Are they merely platforms 206 00:12:38,280 --> 00:12:44,240 Speaker 1: for people to put their own thoughts on. They are platforms, 207 00:12:44,320 --> 00:12:47,920 Speaker 1: that's technically what they are. I do think President Trump 208 00:12:48,040 --> 00:12:53,720 Speaker 1: is correct in exploring exactly what they're doing and what 209 00:12:53,880 --> 00:12:57,160 Speaker 1: kind of legal authorizations they should have to do what 210 00:12:57,240 --> 00:13:01,280 Speaker 1: they're doing. So if a new space paper has certain 211 00:13:01,320 --> 00:13:06,120 Speaker 1: kinds of material, let's say liabele or child abuse, UH, 212 00:13:06,320 --> 00:13:09,360 Speaker 1: they can be subject potentially to a lawsuit. There's a 213 00:13:09,440 --> 00:13:14,640 Speaker 1: law called section two thirty UH that exempts the social 214 00:13:14,679 --> 00:13:18,720 Speaker 1: media providers from liability for things for which newspapers and 215 00:13:18,760 --> 00:13:22,559 Speaker 1: magazines and television stations would be liable at least to 216 00:13:23,000 --> 00:13:28,040 Speaker 1: ponder the reach of two third section back in, I 217 00:13:28,080 --> 00:13:33,160 Speaker 1: think that is that is fair. So ultimately, what's your 218 00:13:33,160 --> 00:13:36,160 Speaker 1: opinion on what of Twitter's kind of solution here if 219 00:13:36,160 --> 00:13:40,880 Speaker 1: you will to President Trump and others, Well, I think 220 00:13:40,920 --> 00:13:45,480 Speaker 1: Twitter's general approach here is extremely reasonable and very soft, 221 00:13:46,120 --> 00:13:48,480 Speaker 1: which is to say that you know, they're going to 222 00:13:48,520 --> 00:13:50,920 Speaker 1: say get the facts if they detect something that's just 223 00:13:51,080 --> 00:13:55,880 Speaker 1: leaving and and the place they point people to should 224 00:13:55,880 --> 00:13:58,120 Speaker 1: be you know, fair enough and it looks like it's 225 00:13:58,120 --> 00:14:01,640 Speaker 1: fair enough here. Um, it's completely fair to say, why 226 00:14:01,640 --> 00:14:03,960 Speaker 1: did you go after me and not someone else? And 227 00:14:04,040 --> 00:14:06,400 Speaker 1: it's completely fair to say I was right on this one. 228 00:14:06,520 --> 00:14:10,599 Speaker 1: I wasn't this leading. But that's that's part of public discussion. 229 00:14:10,720 --> 00:14:14,000 Speaker 1: It's not partner shouldn't be part of threats. Professor Cass 230 00:14:14,040 --> 00:14:16,200 Speaker 1: Sunstein a pleasure having you on. Thank you so much 231 00:14:16,280 --> 00:14:20,160 Speaker 1: for being with us. Professor Sunstein is of Harvard Law School, 232 00:14:20,200 --> 00:14:23,560 Speaker 1: also a Bloomberg opinion columnist and author of the new 233 00:14:23,640 --> 00:14:26,760 Speaker 1: book Too Much Information, which will be out This to 234 00:14:26,920 --> 00:14:32,960 Speaker 1: lie from m I T Press. You're listening to Bloomberg 235 00:14:33,000 --> 00:14:37,120 Speaker 1: Markets with Lisa Abrama, Eds and Paul Sweeney on Bloomberg Radio. 236 00:14:37,840 --> 00:14:40,640 Speaker 1: We got some data, as Greg was mentioning today, showing 237 00:14:40,720 --> 00:14:44,120 Speaker 1: a devastating picture for unemployment. Some green shoots there if 238 00:14:44,160 --> 00:14:47,280 Speaker 1: you want to take it for the optimistic side of things, 239 00:14:47,320 --> 00:14:50,320 Speaker 1: but still highlighting an unemployment rate that's likely to climb 240 00:14:50,320 --> 00:14:55,240 Speaker 1: to twenty in May. The question why are equities rallying? 241 00:14:55,320 --> 00:14:58,200 Speaker 1: Joining us now? Phill Orlando, chief equity market strategist and 242 00:14:58,280 --> 00:15:02,800 Speaker 1: head of client portfolio Management at Federated Hermes with billion 243 00:15:02,840 --> 00:15:07,640 Speaker 1: dollars in equity investments under management, Phil, what's your take here, 244 00:15:07,760 --> 00:15:10,920 Speaker 1: especially given the fact that we've seen this ongoing rotation, 245 00:15:11,000 --> 00:15:14,480 Speaker 1: perhaps not today but leading up to today going into 246 00:15:14,520 --> 00:15:17,720 Speaker 1: the cyclical stocks. How much traction does this rally have? 247 00:15:18,600 --> 00:15:22,080 Speaker 1: So you're you're leading on the claims data is really 248 00:15:22,520 --> 00:15:26,400 Speaker 1: a beacon of light on this whole issue. The pessimists, 249 00:15:26,440 --> 00:15:30,200 Speaker 1: the glass half full person would say, well, we've got 250 00:15:30,240 --> 00:15:33,600 Speaker 1: almost forty one million initial claims that have been filed 251 00:15:33,600 --> 00:15:37,560 Speaker 1: over the last couple of months. That's absolutely horrific. And 252 00:15:37,560 --> 00:15:39,960 Speaker 1: then the optimists, someone like me, says, yeah, but the 253 00:15:40,040 --> 00:15:44,440 Speaker 1: claims have fallen from six point nine million in March 254 00:15:45,080 --> 00:15:48,720 Speaker 1: to two point one million, which was this morning's number. 255 00:15:48,760 --> 00:15:52,880 Speaker 1: They fallen by two thirds and and on a week 256 00:15:52,960 --> 00:15:56,240 Speaker 1: over week basis. So the trajectory, i think, is what 257 00:15:56,320 --> 00:15:59,720 Speaker 1: the equity market is looking at. So so separate apart 258 00:15:59,800 --> 00:16:03,120 Speaker 1: from claims, you know, you mentioned green shoots at the 259 00:16:03,240 --> 00:16:06,400 Speaker 1: very beginning, Oil prices you know, have gone from ten 260 00:16:06,440 --> 00:16:11,360 Speaker 1: dollars to thirty five dollars. Confidence Michigan Conference Board, the 261 00:16:11,400 --> 00:16:15,440 Speaker 1: Small Business Optimists and Index better than expected. Several of 262 00:16:15,480 --> 00:16:20,080 Speaker 1: the Fed indicries Empire, Philly, Fed, Dallas, Richmond, better than expected. That. 263 00:16:20,200 --> 00:16:23,400 Speaker 1: What I'm saying is the equity market is a forward 264 00:16:23,400 --> 00:16:28,160 Speaker 1: looking discounting mechanism, is not looking at the horrific absolute 265 00:16:28,280 --> 00:16:33,040 Speaker 1: nature of what the data is presenting today. They're saying, Okay, 266 00:16:33,200 --> 00:16:38,440 Speaker 1: the the the infections, the mortalities peaked from a trajectory 267 00:16:38,520 --> 00:16:42,560 Speaker 1: standpoint in early April. They're getting better. We're starting to 268 00:16:42,760 --> 00:16:46,280 Speaker 1: slowly reopen the economy. So as we look out into 269 00:16:46,320 --> 00:16:48,360 Speaker 1: the second half of this year, into the end of 270 00:16:48,400 --> 00:16:51,560 Speaker 1: this year, that the economy is open, we're out of 271 00:16:51,600 --> 00:16:54,640 Speaker 1: the recession, we're starting to grow again, and that's what 272 00:16:54,800 --> 00:16:58,800 Speaker 1: the market, in my view, is attempting to price in here. So, Phil, 273 00:16:58,840 --> 00:17:02,160 Speaker 1: a lot of the medical experts have warned that we 274 00:17:02,200 --> 00:17:07,080 Speaker 1: should be expecting a second wave of infections, perhaps in 275 00:17:07,119 --> 00:17:09,840 Speaker 1: the fall in wintertime. How do you think the markets 276 00:17:10,520 --> 00:17:12,639 Speaker 1: general will deal with that if that it does in 277 00:17:12,720 --> 00:17:17,399 Speaker 1: fact occur well, And and that's why the progress that 278 00:17:17,440 --> 00:17:20,159 Speaker 1: we've made from the health care community here over the 279 00:17:20,200 --> 00:17:23,280 Speaker 1: last couple of months is so critically important. So you've 280 00:17:23,320 --> 00:17:26,440 Speaker 1: got one drug company, gile Lead, which has had their 281 00:17:26,520 --> 00:17:31,560 Speaker 1: anti viral drug grandes Viere approved by the FDA. You've 282 00:17:31,600 --> 00:17:35,360 Speaker 1: got a hundred different companies working on vaccines. You've got 283 00:17:35,440 --> 00:17:39,000 Speaker 1: eight of them that are actually making some solid progress, 284 00:17:39,000 --> 00:17:41,760 Speaker 1: and you've got three of them that appear to be 285 00:17:42,200 --> 00:17:44,520 Speaker 1: a step ahead of everyone else, sort of in phase 286 00:17:44,560 --> 00:17:48,840 Speaker 1: one to phase two clinicals right now, Moderna, Oxford University 287 00:17:48,920 --> 00:17:52,280 Speaker 1: and and Novo Vax. That the idea here is that 288 00:17:52,520 --> 00:17:55,800 Speaker 1: given the pace that that a handful of companies are 289 00:17:55,840 --> 00:17:58,760 Speaker 1: making and the pressure I think that the f D 290 00:17:58,880 --> 00:18:02,600 Speaker 1: a self imposed fields to try to get something out there, 291 00:18:02,440 --> 00:18:05,000 Speaker 1: we could have a vaccine by by the end of 292 00:18:05,040 --> 00:18:07,840 Speaker 1: this year. And and so if you've got an anti 293 00:18:07,960 --> 00:18:12,240 Speaker 1: viral drug and and and one or more vaccines um 294 00:18:12,280 --> 00:18:17,520 Speaker 1: that potentially is gonna blunt this dreaded second wave that 295 00:18:17,600 --> 00:18:20,360 Speaker 1: we're trying to avoid. Now. The risk is that these 296 00:18:20,400 --> 00:18:24,240 Speaker 1: anti virals crap out, that we don't get a medical response, 297 00:18:24,240 --> 00:18:26,639 Speaker 1: and that we do get the second wave that's going 298 00:18:26,680 --> 00:18:30,280 Speaker 1: to have a deletarious impact on the reopening of the comedy, 299 00:18:30,359 --> 00:18:34,480 Speaker 1: economic growth, and I would suggest stock market performance as well. 300 00:18:34,720 --> 00:18:37,119 Speaker 1: What the markets pricing and now I think is the 301 00:18:37,160 --> 00:18:41,200 Speaker 1: fact that we are making medical progress on this drug development, 302 00:18:41,280 --> 00:18:44,280 Speaker 1: and the thinking is something is gonna is gonna shake 303 00:18:44,359 --> 00:18:47,360 Speaker 1: free by Thanksgiving, all right, so what how are you positioning. 304 00:18:48,440 --> 00:18:53,040 Speaker 1: We have maintained a three percent equity overweight with a 305 00:18:53,119 --> 00:18:59,000 Speaker 1: focus on domestic large cap growth and domestic small cap. 306 00:18:59,840 --> 00:19:03,040 Speaker 1: The those areas have done pretty well here, led by 307 00:19:03,280 --> 00:19:07,600 Speaker 1: healthcare and technology. One area that we've liked that hasn't 308 00:19:07,640 --> 00:19:12,159 Speaker 1: participated up until now has been financials. But just in 309 00:19:12,200 --> 00:19:14,720 Speaker 1: the last week or so, we're starting to get sort 310 00:19:14,760 --> 00:19:17,359 Speaker 1: of a catch up trade that you folks have been 311 00:19:17,400 --> 00:19:20,359 Speaker 1: talking about, you know, some of the more economically sensitive 312 00:19:20,359 --> 00:19:26,320 Speaker 1: categories like financials, industrials, consumer discretionary energy, et cetera. Uh So, 313 00:19:26,400 --> 00:19:29,440 Speaker 1: we've been sticking with the with the growth of equality, 314 00:19:30,160 --> 00:19:34,000 Speaker 1: but we're watching this catchup trade pretty closely. What would 315 00:19:34,000 --> 00:19:36,600 Speaker 1: it take for you to change that view? Especially given 316 00:19:36,600 --> 00:19:40,320 Speaker 1: the fact that the vaccine scenario that people are expecting 317 00:19:40,440 --> 00:19:43,000 Speaker 1: and that Anthony Fauci sort of raised the specter of 318 00:19:43,119 --> 00:19:45,960 Speaker 1: yesterday that it could be approved, something could be approved 319 00:19:45,960 --> 00:19:48,000 Speaker 1: by the end of this year, has been called into 320 00:19:48,000 --> 00:19:50,480 Speaker 1: the question by the likes of the MERK CEO, who 321 00:19:50,520 --> 00:19:54,840 Speaker 1: came out and said this seems really ambitious to us. Well, 322 00:19:55,320 --> 00:19:57,880 Speaker 1: and I think that's exactly the point. If if we 323 00:19:57,960 --> 00:20:01,159 Speaker 1: do not make the medical progress that we think we're 324 00:20:01,200 --> 00:20:03,800 Speaker 1: going to make on the vaccine front, and as a 325 00:20:03,840 --> 00:20:08,280 Speaker 1: result end up with this disastrous second wave which forces 326 00:20:08,359 --> 00:20:10,960 Speaker 1: us to shut the economy down again and extend the 327 00:20:11,000 --> 00:20:14,119 Speaker 1: recession which we think is contained of the first half 328 00:20:14,600 --> 00:20:17,159 Speaker 1: through the back half of the year. That that's not 329 00:20:17,280 --> 00:20:20,879 Speaker 1: in our expectations. We think the because of the reopening 330 00:20:20,920 --> 00:20:23,800 Speaker 1: that's going on, we're going to have positive third quarter 331 00:20:23,880 --> 00:20:27,400 Speaker 1: growth over second quarter, positive corporate earnings in the third 332 00:20:27,480 --> 00:20:30,919 Speaker 1: quarter versus the second quarter. That's our base case. So 333 00:20:31,000 --> 00:20:33,680 Speaker 1: if if, if those things don't happen, if the economy 334 00:20:33,720 --> 00:20:36,560 Speaker 1: gets shut down because of this second wave because we 335 00:20:36,640 --> 00:20:39,080 Speaker 1: don't make the progress on the drug development that we 336 00:20:39,119 --> 00:20:41,480 Speaker 1: think we're making, then that's going to cause us to 337 00:20:41,480 --> 00:20:44,240 Speaker 1: go back to the drawing board. So just real quickly, 338 00:20:44,280 --> 00:20:45,800 Speaker 1: what do you make a China here that looks like 339 00:20:45,840 --> 00:20:49,360 Speaker 1: the tensions really are kind of starting to ramp up here. Well, 340 00:20:49,920 --> 00:20:52,840 Speaker 1: you know, I'm not a China expert, but my best 341 00:20:52,880 --> 00:20:56,679 Speaker 1: guess is that, uh, perhaps President She is trying to 342 00:20:56,800 --> 00:21:02,480 Speaker 1: direct global focus on the role that the Chinese had 343 00:21:02,560 --> 00:21:06,919 Speaker 1: with the coronavirus. It now appears that they knew about 344 00:21:06,960 --> 00:21:10,080 Speaker 1: this as far back as maybe October and November of 345 00:21:10,160 --> 00:21:14,879 Speaker 1: last year and kept a quiet until the end of January. Uh. 346 00:21:14,960 --> 00:21:19,440 Speaker 1: That's obviously unsettling, if that's true. Uh. And so perhaps 347 00:21:19,480 --> 00:21:22,680 Speaker 1: to take the focus off that, uh you you you, 348 00:21:22,680 --> 00:21:25,399 Speaker 1: you shift over to this Hong Kong situation, which is 349 00:21:25,440 --> 00:21:28,800 Speaker 1: equally troubling. Uh. And and you know, as a result, 350 00:21:28,840 --> 00:21:31,679 Speaker 1: we're watching Hong Kong right now rather than you know, 351 00:21:32,200 --> 00:21:35,760 Speaker 1: assigning blame to who knew what when. Hey, Phil, thanks 352 00:21:35,800 --> 00:21:37,879 Speaker 1: so much for joining us. We always love having you 353 00:21:37,920 --> 00:21:41,919 Speaker 1: on getting your perspective. Phil Orlando, chief equity market strategist 354 00:21:41,920 --> 00:21:46,120 Speaker 1: and head of client portfolio management at Federated Hermes. They've 355 00:21:46,119 --> 00:21:49,520 Speaker 1: had eighty nine billion and equities under management. Joining us 356 00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:51,199 Speaker 1: on the phone, Phil, thanks so much for joining us. 357 00:21:51,240 --> 00:21:54,399 Speaker 1: At least it's interesting here. Phil continues to keep I 358 00:21:54,440 --> 00:21:57,280 Speaker 1: think what we've you know, long scene from Phil is 359 00:21:57,359 --> 00:22:00,440 Speaker 1: kind of a positive bias to the market here. Uh. 360 00:22:00,440 --> 00:22:02,800 Speaker 1: And he's certainly been right coming off the bottom, just 361 00:22:02,840 --> 00:22:05,760 Speaker 1: this great rally, Uh, coming off of the bottom. And 362 00:22:05,800 --> 00:22:08,399 Speaker 1: I think the markets starting to discount, um, you know, 363 00:22:08,480 --> 00:22:12,719 Speaker 1: a reopening of economies and of course accommodative central banks 364 00:22:12,800 --> 00:22:18,439 Speaker 1: around the world pushing this market higher. Tensions have been 365 00:22:18,560 --> 00:22:21,359 Speaker 1: rising between the US and China. Hong Kong at the 366 00:22:21,440 --> 00:22:26,080 Speaker 1: very forefront of that, with China imposing passing rules to 367 00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:30,360 Speaker 1: impose some new security rules on Hong Kong, basically being 368 00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:33,280 Speaker 1: viewed by the US is stripping that region of its 369 00:22:33,359 --> 00:22:37,320 Speaker 1: autonomy here with US now. Christopher Balding, associate professor at 370 00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:40,800 Speaker 1: Fulbright University in Vietnam, and a Bloomberg opinion columnist, Chris 371 00:22:41,040 --> 00:22:44,199 Speaker 1: I want to start with Hong Kong and its economic 372 00:22:44,280 --> 00:22:48,280 Speaker 1: position relative to China. How much of an economic hit 373 00:22:48,400 --> 00:22:51,600 Speaker 1: would it be to Beijing if the United States were 374 00:22:51,640 --> 00:22:55,480 Speaker 1: to provoke that special trading status with Hong Kong. UM. 375 00:22:55,640 --> 00:22:58,879 Speaker 1: In some ways, it wouldn't be that big of an issue. 376 00:22:59,560 --> 00:23:03,320 Speaker 1: Even they're thinking of raising the tariffs to match. UM, 377 00:23:03,440 --> 00:23:06,040 Speaker 1: not the Hong Kong level, but the China level. UM. 378 00:23:06,080 --> 00:23:09,480 Speaker 1: There's not a whole lot of manufacturing that takes place 379 00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:13,240 Speaker 1: in Hong Kong anymore, basically a service economy. UM, it's 380 00:23:13,240 --> 00:23:16,800 Speaker 1: a big shipping port, lots of lots of trade goes 381 00:23:16,840 --> 00:23:20,160 Speaker 1: through Hong Kong before arriving in China, UM, which changes 382 00:23:20,200 --> 00:23:25,639 Speaker 1: the designation of products. UM. But overall, the real economic 383 00:23:25,720 --> 00:23:29,240 Speaker 1: impact is not where the primary pain would be felt. UM. 384 00:23:29,640 --> 00:23:33,600 Speaker 1: There are some legislation right now that would basically begin 385 00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:37,679 Speaker 1: to crimp US dollar access UH in different ways to 386 00:23:38,160 --> 00:23:41,840 Speaker 1: UH to Hong Kong and Chinese firms UM and entities 387 00:23:42,320 --> 00:23:46,160 Speaker 1: seeking usl are funding. That is where the real pain 388 00:23:46,600 --> 00:23:49,720 Speaker 1: would come in, and especially if there was a move, 389 00:23:49,800 --> 00:23:54,919 Speaker 1: for instance, from by firms to escape prc uh UH 390 00:23:55,200 --> 00:23:59,040 Speaker 1: legal status and move to places like Singapore UM where 391 00:23:59,040 --> 00:24:01,879 Speaker 1: there would be much greater confidence and contract enforcement and 392 00:24:01,920 --> 00:24:04,320 Speaker 1: things like that. So that is where the real pain 393 00:24:04,359 --> 00:24:08,320 Speaker 1: would be felt, not in the direct economic impact. Chris, 394 00:24:08,520 --> 00:24:12,119 Speaker 1: give us a sense of white China is asserting its thority. Now. 395 00:24:12,240 --> 00:24:15,760 Speaker 1: Is there anything specific about this timing here? UM? I 396 00:24:15,840 --> 00:24:19,560 Speaker 1: think the best theory on that specifically is that they 397 00:24:19,680 --> 00:24:23,560 Speaker 1: realize UM that to let's say, try and assert control 398 00:24:23,640 --> 00:24:28,400 Speaker 1: over Hong Kong UH more more strongly UH the way 399 00:24:28,440 --> 00:24:31,120 Speaker 1: that they were doing last year UH simply wasn't working. 400 00:24:31,240 --> 00:24:35,560 Speaker 1: So this is essentially the legal version of rolling in 401 00:24:35,600 --> 00:24:38,159 Speaker 1: a tank into Hong Kong UM. And I think at 402 00:24:38,160 --> 00:24:40,399 Speaker 1: this point, I think a lot of Hong Kongers I 403 00:24:40,440 --> 00:24:42,720 Speaker 1: think that the set, the mood seems to be a 404 00:24:42,720 --> 00:24:45,920 Speaker 1: little bit more resigned to their fate that they're not 405 00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:48,320 Speaker 1: going to be able to stop this UM and I 406 00:24:48,359 --> 00:24:50,679 Speaker 1: think one of the things you're hearing from from different 407 00:24:50,680 --> 00:24:53,840 Speaker 1: people I know is UM is basically it's time. It's 408 00:24:53,880 --> 00:24:56,160 Speaker 1: it's time to move on, it's time to consider leaving 409 00:24:56,200 --> 00:24:59,000 Speaker 1: Hong Kong. And I've heard that too from a number 410 00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:01,480 Speaker 1: of companies that are looking at Singapore, like you said, 411 00:25:01,800 --> 00:25:04,359 Speaker 1: and trying to make plans sooner rather than later. I 412 00:25:04,359 --> 00:25:06,159 Speaker 1: want to go back to something that you were saying 413 00:25:06,560 --> 00:25:10,560 Speaker 1: about the dollar funding pressures that could be foisted upon 414 00:25:10,680 --> 00:25:13,760 Speaker 1: Beijing due to some of the US moves against Hong Kong. 415 00:25:14,040 --> 00:25:16,240 Speaker 1: Can you talk a little bit more about that, because 416 00:25:16,280 --> 00:25:18,600 Speaker 1: I do not think that that's being priced into the 417 00:25:18,640 --> 00:25:22,560 Speaker 1: market or even talked about much among analysts. Sure. So 418 00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:26,960 Speaker 1: there's there's there's a couple of specific issues. So for instance, 419 00:25:27,160 --> 00:25:30,640 Speaker 1: UM some of the legislation that is that is currently 420 00:25:31,160 --> 00:25:33,880 Speaker 1: in the House, that's already passed the Senate. UM it's 421 00:25:33,880 --> 00:25:40,440 Speaker 1: specifically targets UM UM UM companies or individuals in Hong 422 00:25:40,520 --> 00:25:44,679 Speaker 1: Kong or in the banks deal with them and providing 423 00:25:44,960 --> 00:25:48,760 Speaker 1: UH dollar access and other financial services to them. So, 424 00:25:48,840 --> 00:25:52,680 Speaker 1: depending on how broadly a lawyer or a regulator wanted 425 00:25:52,720 --> 00:25:58,640 Speaker 1: to interpret statchutes like that, one could quite plausibly assume 426 00:25:58,760 --> 00:26:02,040 Speaker 1: that this would include some of the largest Chinese companies 427 00:26:02,359 --> 00:26:05,840 Speaker 1: and some of the largest Chinese banks would would be 428 00:26:05,840 --> 00:26:08,800 Speaker 1: wrapped up in this, and so this would prevent US 429 00:26:08,880 --> 00:26:14,160 Speaker 1: banks and and other banks from potentially servicing those those clients. UM. 430 00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:16,120 Speaker 1: One of the areas where you've seen this a lot. 431 00:26:16,520 --> 00:26:19,919 Speaker 1: You saw this a lot before Corona was and and 432 00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:22,359 Speaker 1: in two thousand nineteen, if there was a lot of 433 00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:26,800 Speaker 1: US dollar raising by Chinese banks that need to raise capital. UM. 434 00:26:26,880 --> 00:26:30,199 Speaker 1: We saw just recently that the bank capital and Chinese 435 00:26:30,200 --> 00:26:33,880 Speaker 1: banks has declined to a long term UH low. It's 436 00:26:33,920 --> 00:26:38,560 Speaker 1: now just above nine percent, and it's continuing to decline. UM. 437 00:26:38,800 --> 00:26:42,160 Speaker 1: That's a real problem. They need large amounts of funding, 438 00:26:42,240 --> 00:26:45,520 Speaker 1: and a lot of that is coming via UM secondary 439 00:26:45,600 --> 00:26:49,440 Speaker 1: offerings and in various convertibles UM in Hong Kong. So 440 00:26:49,800 --> 00:26:52,959 Speaker 1: if if they cannot raise the US dollar funding because 441 00:26:53,040 --> 00:26:58,080 Speaker 1: of sanctions or new legislation, UM, that could cause real, 442 00:26:58,119 --> 00:27:01,520 Speaker 1: real problems. So Chris, just about thirty seconds give us 443 00:27:01,520 --> 00:27:04,480 Speaker 1: a sense of is there any recourse for the people 444 00:27:04,520 --> 00:27:06,040 Speaker 1: of Hong Kong here or is this kind of a 445 00:27:06,080 --> 00:27:12,480 Speaker 1: fit complete. To be quite frank unfortunately, UM, there does 446 00:27:12,520 --> 00:27:15,200 Speaker 1: not seem to be a lot of recourse with regards 447 00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:18,119 Speaker 1: to China. China seems to have made a decision that 448 00:27:18,240 --> 00:27:20,040 Speaker 1: this is what they're going to do in Hong Kong 449 00:27:20,560 --> 00:27:24,800 Speaker 1: um and barring uh, you know, significant violence, at which 450 00:27:24,920 --> 00:27:30,040 Speaker 1: point the PRC seems focused on ramping up and UH 451 00:27:30,080 --> 00:27:35,200 Speaker 1: and bringing in significant UH police or potential military support. Um. 452 00:27:35,440 --> 00:27:37,439 Speaker 1: There does not seem to be a lot that that 453 00:27:37,800 --> 00:27:41,160 Speaker 1: Hong Kong people are, Hong Kong government can do. Chris, 454 00:27:41,160 --> 00:27:43,960 Speaker 1: thanks so much for joining us. Christopher Balding, Associate Professor 455 00:27:43,960 --> 00:27:47,439 Speaker 1: at the Fulbright University of Vietnam, also a Bloomberg opinion 456 00:27:47,480 --> 00:27:51,280 Speaker 1: comms talking about the developments in Hong Kong. Is China 457 00:27:51,600 --> 00:27:55,919 Speaker 1: asserting ever more control over Hong Kong? Um, it seems 458 00:27:55,960 --> 00:27:58,119 Speaker 1: to be kind of a trend here and it doesn't 459 00:27:58,119 --> 00:28:01,000 Speaker 1: seem to be according to us. Are Balding, you know 460 00:28:01,160 --> 00:28:03,959 Speaker 1: much that Hong Kong can do here, so but certainly 461 00:28:04,040 --> 00:28:07,919 Speaker 1: ratcheting up the tensions between the US and China. Uh So, 462 00:28:07,960 --> 00:28:09,520 Speaker 1: we'll have to see how this plays out. But again, 463 00:28:09,840 --> 00:28:14,240 Speaker 1: the China US trade war is still in out there 464 00:28:14,400 --> 00:28:18,040 Speaker 1: and still for something for investors to consider. But also, 465 00:28:18,400 --> 00:28:21,520 Speaker 1: you know, the overall trade very difficult between the two countries. 466 00:28:23,840 --> 00:28:26,080 Speaker 1: Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg P and L podcast. 467 00:28:26,240 --> 00:28:28,879 Speaker 1: You can subscribe and listen to interviews at Apple Podcasts 468 00:28:28,920 --> 00:28:31,920 Speaker 1: or whatever podcast platform you prefer. M Paul Sweeney, I'm 469 00:28:31,920 --> 00:28:34,639 Speaker 1: on Twitter at pt Sweeney. I'm Lisa Abram Woyds. I'm 470 00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:37,480 Speaker 1: on Twitter at Lisa Abram Woyds. One before the podcast, 471 00:28:37,560 --> 00:28:40,160 Speaker 1: you can always catch us worldwide. I'm Bloomberg Radio.