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Speaker 1: The Action Network Podcast.

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Speaker 2: I can just.

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Speaker 3: About that action all right.

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Speaker 2: Here we go Probes throwing out spect.

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Speaker 1: We're sitting up to cash to Star.

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Speaker 2: That's all we see.

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Speaker 1: Most gamble is ships. When they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 1: go to swin. That's incredible, big bank. I like to

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Speaker 1: make money.

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Speaker 3: All right?

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Speaker 1: This is the ultimate kabine you want to and we

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Speaker 1: are under way.

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Speaker 2: What is up?

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Speaker 1: Everybody?

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Speaker 3: Welcome to the Action Network Podcast presented by DraftKings. Happy

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Speaker 3: New Year. I'm your host, Chris Raybon. This is our

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Speaker 3: NFL wild Card weekend betting preview. Joining me is always

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Speaker 3: as the Prime Minister of degenerate Nation.

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Speaker 1: My guy stucky Stuck. What is going on? Happy New Year? Brother?

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Speaker 3: You know, I know we were just kind of commiserating

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Speaker 3: about the about your Ravens off air. He did want

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Speaker 3: to get your quick thoughts on before we get into

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Speaker 3: the you know, six pack and all the stupidness with

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Speaker 3: the NFC South that happened last week. Your quick thoughts

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Speaker 3: on on that game, and like, you know, do you

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Speaker 3: agree with that with the harball you know decision, because

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Speaker 3: it's not easy to find a coach that like the

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Speaker 3: only problem is that he, you know, is his team

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Speaker 3: is not cut.

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Speaker 1: So any quick thoughts on that one.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, I mean the Kyle Hamilton injury. There was, there's

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Speaker 2: some flukey plays. Another went to Steelers with some peak

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Speaker 2: Steelers udo, the black pick, the a woozy a fall.

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Speaker 2: But the Hamilton injury was the difference in the game. Uh.

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Speaker 2: I twoted it out right away. The defense is gonna crater,

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Speaker 2: and it did. They went from allowing three point eight

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Speaker 2: yards per played at six point eight when he after

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Speaker 2: he went out. He does so much for them and

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Speaker 2: they can't get pressure. He masked a lot of the issues.

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Speaker 2: That's their main objective in the off season they got

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Speaker 2: to get They have to address the lack of edge

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Speaker 2: pressure on the defense. In regards to Harball, thought it

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Speaker 2: was coming. I think it was time for both. I

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Speaker 2: think it's just time has run its course. I think

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Speaker 2: Harball will do well somewhere else, depending on the situation. Obviously,

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Speaker 2: there's only so much you can do as a head

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Speaker 2: coach given the circumstances of the organization you go to.

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Speaker 2: But there was I think the relationship between Lamar and

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Speaker 2: from what I've heard Lamar and Harball, it's splintered and

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Speaker 2: along with some of the other guys in the locker room,

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Speaker 2: So I think it was time. I'm curious to see

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Speaker 2: where they go. Is it like school or minter? But yeah,

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Speaker 2: it's gonna be an interesting offseason for the Ravens. Harball

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Speaker 2: also just he made some questionable decisions late in games

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Speaker 2: over the recent seasons. Used to be so good in

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Speaker 2: that department, and that stadium is the hardest. That's his

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Speaker 2: last act as the Ravens head coach. That stadium is

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Speaker 2: so hard to kick. And you just watched one of

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Speaker 2: the best kickers in NFL miss an extra point. And

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Speaker 2: I could get into the real weeds and say that

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Speaker 2: it's better off going kicking in that direction from the

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Speaker 2: hash mark, but they centered it and lost. You urge

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Speaker 2: with a young kicker, you have to come out in

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Speaker 2: fourteen seconds, like at least just run it. Yes, maybe

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Speaker 2: he was worried about Henry's fumbles, but roll lamar out

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Speaker 2: and then if you know I it's nothing there, just

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Speaker 2: tell him to throw it away. Or if you can't

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Speaker 2: run for yards like they're you and have a time out,

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Speaker 2: there's so much you can do. Instead, they chose to

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Speaker 2: lose yardage, and yeah, it was a tough way to lose,

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Speaker 2: especially like since if they got in Lamar was starting

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Speaker 2: to look a little better, like they could have made

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Speaker 2: a run. The AFC is that wide open, Like but uh,

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Speaker 2: it's a shame. But uh, I'm it'll be a very

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Speaker 2: interesting offseason for the Ravens. But I kind of agreed

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Speaker 2: with the move for both parties.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I just it's just kind of the minute I heard,

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Speaker 3: you know, teams with coaches were interested in Harbor, I'm like,

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Speaker 3: you know, it's interesting because it's not like it's a

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Speaker 3: veteran team. They're always kind of making, you know, splash

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Speaker 3: moves in the free agent market. They're integrating new, you know,

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Speaker 3: important pieces. So I mean it's it's it's not easy

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Speaker 3: to find a coach where it's like, Okay, he could

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Speaker 3: do everything he needs to do and then just not

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Speaker 3: lose games in the clutch. You got to get there first, though. Yeah,

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Speaker 3: I think it will just be interesting. But I mean,

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Speaker 3: now we got we got Aaron Rodgers in the playoffs,

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Speaker 3: cut fresh off a rushing day that was better than Lamar,

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Speaker 3: So it should be an interesting Monday night.

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Speaker 1: I'll get into our six pack with our sides. Totals.

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Speaker 3: Totals will be included in the six practice week, and

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Speaker 3: we'll still do our money line dog parlay, will still

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Speaker 3: do anytime.

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Speaker 1: Touchdown parlay as well.

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Speaker 3: If you want to tell some of the bets we're

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Speaker 3: about to discuss, look pretty quick flip links in the

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Speaker 3: podcast and video description or Action Network dot Com slash

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Speaker 3: bet now fifty nine forty five stir Up Stuck still

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Speaker 3: been hot all year. Another another money line dog with

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Speaker 3: the with the Raiders. So that was just, I mean,

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Speaker 3: a fitting way to go to go out of the

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Speaker 3: regular seasons.

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Speaker 2: We got our part of life this week.

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Speaker 3: Uh oh yeah, yeah yeah, so I mean, yeah yeah.

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Speaker 1: The Lion held on.

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Speaker 3: It seemed like for it seemed like they kind of

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Speaker 3: didn't almost, but yeah they did.

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Speaker 2: Uh. I went sixteen to two and money on dolls.

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Speaker 2: But we just could never pair the touchdowns together, like,

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Speaker 2: oh my god, not Henry.

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Speaker 3: Because the Ravens was this game to just uh finally

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Speaker 3: unleash Tess Walker and then it seems like a bench

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Speaker 3: Hopkins and then and of course you bench Hopkins and

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Speaker 3: then and the guy, the veteran guy that's supposed to

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Speaker 3: be on the same page regardless of how much he's playing.

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Speaker 4: Uh uh you know, miscommunication on the side with Jackson

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Speaker 4: with like, I don't know.

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Speaker 3: Sometimes I wonder if it really like Jackson's obviously one

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Speaker 3: of the best quarterbacks I've ever seen played the game,

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Speaker 3: but maybe something is with the coach who just got

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Speaker 3: to get him more focused because he is like even

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Speaker 3: when he said I thought we had the game.

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Speaker 1: In the bag, I'm like, bro, like, have you not

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Speaker 1: been a raven?

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Speaker 3: Like like, so maybe it's a little lack of days

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Speaker 3: ago that time, because it's it is inexplicable how they

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Speaker 3: keep doing this.

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Speaker 1: But yeah, I would have ran. I would have ran

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Speaker 1: with him.

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Speaker 3: I would ran with him, you know, not forgot Henry.

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Speaker 3: But here we are with the Steelers. Should be a

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Speaker 3: good one there. But we'll kick off the wild Card

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Speaker 3: Weekend six pack Thursday. For action, Let's crack open the

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Speaker 3: Sunday six pack. My first pick of the wild Card

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Speaker 3: Weekend six pack. First overall, it's going to be the

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Speaker 3: Jacksonville Jaguars plus one and a half at home against

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Speaker 3: the Buffalo Bills. First of all, shouts to the Jags,

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Speaker 3: uh no, we both love them. Coming into the year,

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Speaker 3: got us the division uh title at some nice odds,

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Speaker 3: and going into this game against Buffalo. I know everyone's

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Speaker 3: kind of just writing this is like, Okay, this is

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Speaker 3: just Josh Allen's Super Bowl year. This is just you know,

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Speaker 3: there's no Mahomes, there's no Burrow, there's no Jackson. They're

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Speaker 3: playing the Jaguars, who lost double digit games last year.

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Speaker 3: But it's not that easy in the NFL, as we've seen,

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Speaker 3: as we've seen each and every week this First of all,

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Speaker 3: this Jaguar team is better than the Bills team. Than

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Speaker 3: this Bills team, I have him rated higher now. And

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Speaker 3: there's a couple of things that's kind of stand out here.

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Speaker 3: So the first thing is the Bills really struggle to

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Speaker 3: defend the run. Now the Jaguars, when they've been able

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Speaker 3: to run the ball and that's working for their offense,

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Speaker 3: that takes a lot off Lawrence, who I think is

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Speaker 3: still you know, he's been playing really well, but still

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Speaker 3: a guy who you would not want to kind of

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Speaker 3: trust fully in a game like this. I think if

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Speaker 3: you're Liam Cohene, I think having that run game is

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Speaker 3: going to do wonders for them. You know, they've they've

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Speaker 3: been resting to and the ETM has been playing really well.

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Speaker 3: And then on the other side, the Jacksonville Jaguars are

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Speaker 3: one of the better teams in the league at stopping

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Speaker 3: opposing run games, and that extends to the quarterback as well.

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Speaker 3: The Jaguars are one of the top teams are defending

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Speaker 3: quarterback design runs and they've been they've been pretty solid

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Speaker 3: against scrambles and then they've been good against running backs

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Speaker 3: as well and teams to the point where part of

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Speaker 3: it is game script. But teams haven't been really even

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Speaker 3: trying to run on Jacksonville with the traditional run games,

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Speaker 3: so it might have to come more from Josh Allen

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Speaker 3: than it typically does.

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Speaker 1: And you know that could be an.

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Speaker 3: Issue for Buffalo because remember what they did last postseason

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Speaker 3: in a year where you know, Josh Allen was playing brilliantly.

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Speaker 3: I thought had barely a turnover last year heading been

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Speaker 3: to the playoffs, and they really committed to that run

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Speaker 3: game like they have most of the most of the

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Speaker 3: Brady tenure. And now you're going up against Jacksonville, who

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Speaker 3: can score points against this Bills team, and your run game,

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Speaker 3: you might not get the explosives that you're used to

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Speaker 3: from a guy like James Cook. Jacksonville, it's been one

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Speaker 3: of the best teams in the league at prevented explosives

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Speaker 3: both on the ground and through the year. And if

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Speaker 3: you don't get that, now you're still tasked with this. Okay,

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Speaker 3: when we when we need a key conversion, we're playing

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Speaker 3: a team that's good that that's gonna sit back in

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Speaker 3: a lot of zones, which Josh Allen can rip apart,

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Speaker 3: and I'll get to that in a second, but they're

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Speaker 3: gonna sit back in a lot of zones. That makes

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Speaker 3: it tougher to scramble and tougher to do some of

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Speaker 3: those you know, other worldly things. You have to kind

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Speaker 3: of do it a little more traditionally at times. And

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Speaker 3: then you still don't really love your receivers if you're Buffalo,

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Speaker 3: I mean to the point where you took you took

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Speaker 3: like a banged up kincaid and made him get it

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Speaker 3: a half like a quarter of work in the finale

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Speaker 3: because you know you're gonna need him in a big

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Speaker 3: game like this. You're making one of your one or

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Speaker 3: two receivers healthy scratches each and every game. Jacksonville healthy

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Speaker 3: at receiver, three very good receivers. Now when you have

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Speaker 3: Thomas Washington's come on really strong. Thomas is like the

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Speaker 3: week is one, and then you have and then of

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Speaker 3: course you have Jacobe Myers. So there's a lot to

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Speaker 3: defend if your Buffalo this defense is not good. They're

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Speaker 3: thirtieth against the run them in DVA. Their secondary still

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Speaker 3: has a lot of question marks, a little bit banged

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Speaker 3: up heading into the game.

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Speaker 1: We'll see.

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Speaker 3: But what I think is interesting is Jacksonville has a

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Speaker 3: chance to I think Jacksonville has a chance to actually

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Speaker 3: get a blow out here, But it really depends on

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Speaker 3: what kind of coverages they play, because when you look

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Speaker 3: at Josh Allen's raw numbers against zone coverages, he's much

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Speaker 3: better against zone than against man. That makes sense because

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Speaker 3: his receivers can't beat man. But Jacksonville does play a

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Speaker 3: lot of single high zone and that's uch more like

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Speaker 3: cover three, Cover one uh, cover three uh and all

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Speaker 3: shoots of that. You know, one safety deep, so you

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Speaker 3: can kind of do things with the other one. And

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Speaker 3: the Bills have struggled against that coverage more so, and

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Speaker 3: their receivers haven't been as good as that as some

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Speaker 3: other kind of you know, two high zones where you know,

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Speaker 3: Josh Allen can kind of create and and get and

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Speaker 3: still get the ball, you know, underneath, and there's guys

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Speaker 3: don't have to win as deep downfield all the time.

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Speaker 3: So I'm not sure exactly, you know, I like camp

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Speaker 3: and Isle camp Campani.

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Speaker 1: I think he's been a good coordinator.

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Speaker 3: I don't know exactly how Jacksonville will play it, so

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Speaker 3: I can't say, you know, that's a guarantee. A lot

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Speaker 3: of times when you look at these zone man splits,

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Speaker 3: you know, teams just kind of do the opposite. But

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Speaker 3: I will say that Jacksonville has a bunch of different

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Speaker 3: ways that they can win this game. They're good on

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Speaker 3: special teams, Bills kickers been banged up all year.

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Speaker 1: You're going to Florida.

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Speaker 3: We've seen the Bills in the past kind of struggle

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Speaker 3: in these you know, they're a.

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Speaker 1: Cold other team.

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Speaker 3: Uh yuh going to some of these warm weather places,

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Speaker 3: like usually they go to Miami every year and it's

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Speaker 3: not pretty. And then these two teams have just been

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Speaker 3: really leaned into their home road splits. So if you

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Speaker 3: look at the Jaguars, I've been talking about this, oh yeah,

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Speaker 3: but they've just looked like a different team at home.

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Speaker 1: Their only home, true home loss.

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Speaker 3: On a year because remember they played their Rams, it

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Speaker 3: was a home game, but it was overseas.

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Speaker 1: Their only true home loss of the year.

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Speaker 3: Was to the best team in the NFL, the Seattle Seahawks,

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Speaker 3: and it was a one score game. They lost twenty

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Speaker 3: to twelve. They beat the Texans at home. They beat

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Speaker 3: the Chiefs at home, they beat the Panthers at home,

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Speaker 3: they beat the Chargers at home. Those are all playoff teams,

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Speaker 3: and then everyone else they played at home. They blew

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Speaker 3: out their division opponents, the Jets, the Titans.

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Speaker 1: You know.

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Speaker 3: So this is a team that I think is a

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Speaker 3: lot more dangerous that people are going to give them

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Speaker 3: credit for. I think they have they have something with

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Speaker 3: the way their defense can can play against the run,

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Speaker 3: because the Bills are more run dependent than you would

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Speaker 3: think for a Josh Allen team, and part of that

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Speaker 3: goes with him. And then on the other side, I

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Speaker 3: think this is gonna give the Bills defense issues because

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Speaker 3: I still don't think the secondary strong. I still don't

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Speaker 3: think they can adequately defend the run. And then they're

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Speaker 3: also the Bills have also been really bad against quarterback runs.

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Speaker 3: And I know Stuck, you're gonna talk about that later.

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Speaker 3: But Trevor Lawrence has at times been a difference maker

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Speaker 3: in the run game for this Jags team. So you

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Speaker 3: combine that with the home road splits for you know,

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Speaker 3: Jacksonville and then Buffalo. If you look at what they've

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Speaker 3: the Bills have done on the road this year, and

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Speaker 3: grant it's Josh Allen. They can go anywhere, not gonna

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Speaker 3: be intimidated or anything like that. But you look at

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Speaker 3: their road games and it was a twenty three to

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Speaker 3: twenty win in Cleveland where they could have easily lost

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Speaker 3: that game. Patriots, they got down by three scores before

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Speaker 3: coming back. They blew out the Steelers. They lost the

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Speaker 3: Texans in the game they were favored. They lost to

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Speaker 3: the Dolphins in Florida by seventeen in a game they

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Speaker 3: were favored, blew out the Panthers, lost to the Atlanta

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Speaker 3: Falcons in Atlanta, and in a game they were favored.

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Speaker 1: And then the Jets. You know, we know, we know

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Speaker 1: it happens with the Jets. So not the not the greatest.

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Speaker 3: You know, there are some kind of blemishes there on

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Speaker 3: the road for Buffalo, and if you look at their

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Speaker 3: if you look at their road games this year, because

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Speaker 3: I mentioned that, you know, Jacksonville, I do think offensively

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Speaker 3: the Jaguars. I mean, they're top top, they're in way

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Speaker 3: to DVA their number three, but this is just an

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Speaker 3: overall top team. They're better than They're better than the

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Speaker 3: Bills on paper, across the board pretty much. But for Buffalo,

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Speaker 3: they have four games where they've been they went on

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Speaker 3: the road this year, and the opponent who's able to

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Speaker 3: score more than twenty points. That was the Texans game,

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Speaker 3: the Falcons game, the Dolphins game, and the Patriots game.

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Speaker 3: They lost three of those four games. The only one

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Speaker 3: they won they were down three scores and it took

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Speaker 3: just a miraculous comeback to win the game. So things

301
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Speaker 3: could and if things start getting ugly for Buffalo early,

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Speaker 3: which they which they may, we'll see if Jacksonville has

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Speaker 3: that killer instinct. You know, you always kind of worry

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Speaker 3: about that a little bit. But we also know Jacksonville

305
00:15:29,760 --> 00:15:31,720
Speaker 3: can come back, and you know, we see we saw

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Speaker 3: that against the Chargers if they get down. But right,

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Speaker 3: you know, Jacksonville their defense, I still you know, there's

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Speaker 3: still things about the defense I don't love. But if

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Speaker 3: they're playing from ahead, now you're talking about a defense

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Speaker 3: that was number two in the league enforcing turnovers, and

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Speaker 3: that can be Josh Allen's kryptonite, especially if he's you know,

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Speaker 3: they're playing from behind. Cook's not breaking you know, eighty

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Speaker 3: yard runs, so they have to drive the field. Might

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Speaker 3: start to feel like you need to get it back

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Speaker 3: in one shot. So I think there's a lot of

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Speaker 3: ways that the Jaguars.

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Speaker 1: Can win this game.

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Speaker 3: And they're well coached, which is, you know, one thing

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Speaker 3: that you always want here, especially because you know McDermott's

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Speaker 3: been a good coach for Buffalo but does tend to

321
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Speaker 3: have some questionable moments in the playoffs. I trust Cone,

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Speaker 3: I trust the I trust the defensive staff for Jacksonville.

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Speaker 1: Uh, you know, still Jerry's out.

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Speaker 3: Still never fully trust Trevor, but there's such a good

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Speaker 3: team around him.

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Speaker 2: Uh.

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Speaker 3: And I just think this Bill's defense is overrated and

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Speaker 3: we're playing in Jacksonville.

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Speaker 1: So give me the Jags plus one.

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Speaker 3: And a half before I kick it to U Stech.

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Speaker 3: Just want to give people some trends because the playoffs

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Speaker 3: have been there's a lot this week of you know,

333
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Speaker 3: teams that are at home and yet they are underdogs

334
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Speaker 3: road favorites all time in the playoffs thirty two fifty

335
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Speaker 3: and two against the spread. Uh, they It's just these

336
00:17:07,600 --> 00:17:11,240
Speaker 3: home dogs have been money in the bank historically in

337
00:17:11,280 --> 00:17:14,560
Speaker 3: the playoffs pretty much every round. So I mean you

338
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Speaker 3: go back, you know, even past our bet Labs data

339
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Speaker 3: and you're just looking at an all time trend where

340
00:17:20,000 --> 00:17:22,159
Speaker 3: you know, these teams are, these these road favorites are

341
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Speaker 3: just overrated. I know this is you know, close to

342
00:17:25,359 --> 00:17:27,719
Speaker 3: a pickup game with the trends holds for you know,

343
00:17:27,800 --> 00:17:31,400
Speaker 3: inside of three, outside of three, you know, going back

344
00:17:31,440 --> 00:17:34,000
Speaker 3: over the last couple of decades, sixty one percent against

345
00:17:34,040 --> 00:17:39,399
Speaker 3: the spread for just postseason home dogs and when you

346
00:17:39,480 --> 00:17:42,600
Speaker 3: have the in the wild card, the first two rounds

347
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Speaker 3: of the playoffs, when the higher seed is a is

348
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Speaker 3: an underdog, which is how you get these home dogs

349
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Speaker 3: that season eighteen to nine sixty seven percent going back

350
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Speaker 3: to two thousand and three against the spread, and they've

351
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Speaker 3: been extremely profitable to just take on a money as

352
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Speaker 3: well when you have postseason home underdogs with the money

353
00:18:04,680 --> 00:18:07,239
Speaker 3: line of plus one to fifty five or shorter. So

354
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Speaker 3: essentially not these just not like the Panthers, just super

355
00:18:10,880 --> 00:18:12,840
Speaker 3: long shot. But when you have teams that have a

356
00:18:12,840 --> 00:18:17,600
Speaker 3: reasonable shot to win thirty two ROI they're winning these

357
00:18:17,640 --> 00:18:21,280
Speaker 3: games fifty eight percent of the time, straight up. So

358
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Speaker 3: give me the Jags plus one and a half. Don't

359
00:18:24,760 --> 00:18:27,920
Speaker 3: mind the money line. I think the Bills are gonna

360
00:18:27,920 --> 00:18:30,000
Speaker 3: have their work cut out for them in this one.

361
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Speaker 3: I know it's Josh's I know it's Josh is kind

362
00:18:32,119 --> 00:18:33,600
Speaker 3: of is the script for Josh.

363
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Speaker 1: But I think I respect this Jags team a lot

364
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Speaker 1: have all year.

365
00:18:37,240 --> 00:18:38,760
Speaker 2: Would you just take a half hour for that?

366
00:18:40,920 --> 00:18:42,200
Speaker 1: Right, I've been I've been out of the loop a

367
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Speaker 1: little bit, as you know that.

368
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Speaker 2: Yeah, so the Jags first half was gonna be one

369
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Speaker 2: of my picks, but we won't double up yere. Okay,

370
00:18:50,200 --> 00:18:54,480
Speaker 2: it was eighteen minutes for the first pick. So so

371
00:18:54,760 --> 00:18:56,199
Speaker 2: I like the Jags in the first half. And the

372
00:18:56,240 --> 00:18:58,920
Speaker 2: reason for this the Cohen script. The Jags have been

373
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Speaker 2: elite in the first half of games. And if you

374
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Speaker 2: just look at Trevor Lawrence's splits first half thirteenth EPA

375
00:19:05,920 --> 00:19:09,199
Speaker 2: plus completion percentage of expectation fourteenth adjust the DPA thirteenth

376
00:19:09,200 --> 00:19:13,240
Speaker 2: success rate in the second half, thirty second twenty first

377
00:19:13,320 --> 00:19:16,679
Speaker 2: twenty first allen in the first half twenty fifth EPA

378
00:19:16,720 --> 00:19:20,400
Speaker 2: plus completion over expectation twenty first adjusted EPA per play

379
00:19:20,480 --> 00:19:24,000
Speaker 2: twenty fourth and success rate in the second half, first first, second,

380
00:19:24,080 --> 00:19:27,240
Speaker 2: fourth quarter, first first second, A lot of that. What

381
00:19:27,280 --> 00:19:30,920
Speaker 2: that speaks is the Cohen script. Lawrence really benefits from that.

382
00:19:31,400 --> 00:19:33,240
Speaker 2: And then Alan in this Bill's offense, they try to

383
00:19:33,320 --> 00:19:35,960
Speaker 2: run it way too much in the first half of games,

384
00:19:36,040 --> 00:19:37,600
Speaker 2: and that's going to go right into the strength of

385
00:19:37,600 --> 00:19:41,280
Speaker 2: the Jags defense. And then once Allen gets unleashed against

386
00:19:41,280 --> 00:19:44,240
Speaker 2: this z I could see them coming back and having

387
00:19:44,240 --> 00:19:46,639
Speaker 2: success against this Jag secondary. But if I had to

388
00:19:46,640 --> 00:19:48,320
Speaker 2: play the full game too, I would play the Jags.

389
00:19:48,359 --> 00:19:51,080
Speaker 2: I just prefer the first half money line. This JAG's improvement.

390
00:19:51,119 --> 00:19:52,920
Speaker 2: They've won eight straight and by the way, eighth straight.

391
00:19:52,960 --> 00:19:54,640
Speaker 2: That's the same amount of games the Bills have lost

392
00:19:54,680 --> 00:19:57,440
Speaker 2: consecutively on the road in the playoffs. McDermott himself is

393
00:19:57,520 --> 00:20:00,000
Speaker 2: zero and five. A lot of those have come against

394
00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:03,119
Speaker 2: the Chiefs and fairness, but the surge is real. Since

395
00:20:03,160 --> 00:20:05,919
Speaker 2: they got to Kobe Myers, they are top five and

396
00:20:06,240 --> 00:20:08,639
Speaker 2: drop back success rate and EPA per play. Now you

397
00:20:08,720 --> 00:20:10,199
Speaker 2: might say the schedule is easy. It was, but they

398
00:20:10,240 --> 00:20:12,080
Speaker 2: also blew out the Chargers and they went to Denver

399
00:20:12,600 --> 00:20:16,000
Speaker 2: and beat them handedly. And it's not just to Kobe Myers.

400
00:20:16,040 --> 00:20:20,640
Speaker 2: It's been awesome, but Thomas got healthier. Felt strange. Strange

401
00:20:20,680 --> 00:20:24,000
Speaker 2: he got healthier. They also inserted Covan land And at

402
00:20:24,080 --> 00:20:26,280
Speaker 2: left tackle, and they just signed Hi an extension. He's

403
00:20:26,280 --> 00:20:29,200
Speaker 2: been a revelation, kicked little into the guard where I

404
00:20:29,240 --> 00:20:31,640
Speaker 2: think he's more suitable. So the offense, there's a lot

405
00:20:31,640 --> 00:20:33,600
Speaker 2: of reasons why I think the stream game can work here.

406
00:20:33,600 --> 00:20:35,359
Speaker 2: They can run it on Buffalo. You might say, oh, well,

407
00:20:35,359 --> 00:20:37,440
Speaker 2: since week ten they're thirty first and rush success rate,

408
00:20:37,720 --> 00:20:40,560
Speaker 2: throw that out. They won six of their eight games

409
00:20:40,560 --> 00:20:43,440
Speaker 2: by twenty plus points, so they were just running into

410
00:20:43,480 --> 00:20:45,680
Speaker 2: walls in the fourth quarter. They have a twenty percent

411
00:20:45,800 --> 00:20:47,520
Speaker 2: rush success rate in the fourth quarter over their last

412
00:20:47,520 --> 00:20:49,080
Speaker 2: eight weeks. If you look in just first half, they're

413
00:20:49,080 --> 00:20:51,040
Speaker 2: still top ten rush success rate. So I think they'll

414
00:20:51,040 --> 00:20:52,480
Speaker 2: be able to run it here. When a Cohen offense

415
00:20:52,520 --> 00:20:55,119
Speaker 2: can run it on a Buffalo defense struggles in that department,

416
00:20:55,119 --> 00:20:57,720
Speaker 2: everything also opens up. So I like the Jags early.

417
00:20:57,760 --> 00:20:59,199
Speaker 2: I would bet. I think this is a point flip game.

418
00:20:59,240 --> 00:21:01,200
Speaker 2: I would bet them for the full game as well.

419
00:21:01,240 --> 00:21:04,200
Speaker 2: And the Jags defense is improving as well. I mean

420
00:21:04,320 --> 00:21:06,399
Speaker 2: without turnovers since week ten, and a lot of the

421
00:21:06,480 --> 00:21:08,120
Speaker 2: talk was like the air defense is only good because

422
00:21:08,119 --> 00:21:10,280
Speaker 2: the turn if you removed turnover. Since Week ten, their

423
00:21:10,320 --> 00:21:15,040
Speaker 2: second EPA per play bills are seventeenth. Antonio Johnson is

424
00:21:15,040 --> 00:21:20,120
Speaker 2: coming on at safety, Monterrek Brown is playing really well,

425
00:21:20,119 --> 00:21:22,880
Speaker 2: which was needed because Jordan Lewis went on ir Jerry

426
00:21:22,880 --> 00:21:25,879
Speaker 2: and Jones went back to the slot. And the turn

427
00:21:25,920 --> 00:21:28,000
Speaker 2: of Johnson right now is the number one rated PFF

428
00:21:28,080 --> 00:21:30,879
Speaker 2: safety in the league. You got Murray back from injury

429
00:21:30,880 --> 00:21:33,080
Speaker 2: early in the season, no more Thornhill, which is big,

430
00:21:33,760 --> 00:21:35,840
Speaker 2: and this is one of four defenses in the league

431
00:21:35,840 --> 00:21:38,119
Speaker 2: that ranks in the top seven. And pass and run

432
00:21:38,520 --> 00:21:41,960
Speaker 2: DVA and this team has been good at home. There's

433
00:21:41,960 --> 00:21:44,480
Speaker 2: seven and one against the spread at home, covering by

434
00:21:44,480 --> 00:21:46,800
Speaker 2: over fourteen points per game, six and two in the

435
00:21:46,800 --> 00:21:49,000
Speaker 2: first half. Bill's in the first half against the spread

436
00:21:49,040 --> 00:21:50,800
Speaker 2: three and five. So I agrew with the here. This

437
00:21:50,840 --> 00:21:52,200
Speaker 2: would have been one of my picks, but I bet

438
00:21:52,200 --> 00:21:54,639
Speaker 2: the Jags on the first half. We'll have more on

439
00:21:54,680 --> 00:21:56,800
Speaker 2: this game later, but for my first pick and the

440
00:21:56,880 --> 00:22:01,960
Speaker 2: second overall of the wild card weekend six pack, I'm

441
00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:04,080
Speaker 2: going with the Los Angeles Chargers plus three and a

442
00:22:04,119 --> 00:22:08,000
Speaker 2: half at the New England. Patriots start off HIH projectice

443
00:22:08,040 --> 00:22:10,480
Speaker 2: at like two and a half, so obviously I'm taking

444
00:22:10,520 --> 00:22:14,560
Speaker 2: over a field goal here with the Chargers. This is

445
00:22:14,600 --> 00:22:17,280
Speaker 2: also a trend that I do like and think has

446
00:22:17,320 --> 00:22:20,320
Speaker 2: some validity. It's a quarterback with playoff experience playing a

447
00:22:20,400 --> 00:22:23,960
Speaker 2: quarterback making their first playoff start. Historically, those quarterbacks making

448
00:22:24,000 --> 00:22:26,600
Speaker 2: their first PLAYSFF start against the quarterback with experience twenty

449
00:22:27,040 --> 00:22:31,120
Speaker 2: and thirty nine against the spread not good. There's also

450
00:22:31,160 --> 00:22:32,919
Speaker 2: some matchup advantages here. I like for the Chargers. One,

451
00:22:32,960 --> 00:22:35,280
Speaker 2: they take away explosive passing plays. That's one of the

452
00:22:35,359 --> 00:22:37,879
Speaker 2: keys that you need to do when you're facing the Patriots,

453
00:22:39,280 --> 00:22:43,000
Speaker 2: and on offense, their offensive line that's the biggest question

454
00:22:43,000 --> 00:22:45,800
Speaker 2: in this game. It's obviously a shell of itself, but

455
00:22:45,840 --> 00:22:48,199
Speaker 2: the Patriots twenty seventh and adjusted pressure rate. I'm not

456
00:22:48,200 --> 00:22:51,280
Speaker 2: really afraid of that Patriots defensive line ruining this game.

457
00:22:51,400 --> 00:22:53,119
Speaker 2: They're also dealing with some injuries. We'll see what the

458
00:22:53,160 --> 00:22:55,399
Speaker 2: injury report looks like today, but it's not a defense.

459
00:22:55,400 --> 00:22:57,320
Speaker 2: It's going to kill you with pressure. So I think

460
00:22:57,359 --> 00:23:00,919
Speaker 2: Harbard can make enough plays here immediately. The Patriots are

461
00:23:00,960 --> 00:23:03,600
Speaker 2: hard to price because their schedule was a joke. I mean,

462
00:23:03,600 --> 00:23:05,280
Speaker 2: they're the easiest schedule of any team over the past

463
00:23:05,280 --> 00:23:06,080
Speaker 2: twenty five years.

464
00:23:06,640 --> 00:23:09,000
Speaker 1: You know, the second at least have been my numbers.

465
00:23:09,400 --> 00:23:11,600
Speaker 1: That the Bills right after the Patriots.

466
00:23:11,960 --> 00:23:15,639
Speaker 2: Yeah, surprised me. So they played one team with a

467
00:23:15,640 --> 00:23:18,879
Speaker 2: winning record all year, and it was the Bills, and

468
00:23:18,880 --> 00:23:20,960
Speaker 2: they split with them. That's it. And then the schedule's

469
00:23:20,960 --> 00:23:23,560
Speaker 2: even easier than it appears because they played nothing but

470
00:23:23,640 --> 00:23:26,840
Speaker 2: backup quarterbacks. They played Tyler Huntley Tua who was benched,

471
00:23:27,119 --> 00:23:30,720
Speaker 2: the Spencer Rattler with the Saints, Pennix before he got hurt,

472
00:23:30,720 --> 00:23:34,520
Speaker 2: Flacco with the with the Bengals, Gabroe with the Browns,

473
00:23:34,640 --> 00:23:38,200
Speaker 2: Fields with the Jets, yours Cook, and then a bunch

474
00:23:38,280 --> 00:23:41,280
Speaker 2: of rookies Dart and Ward. I mean, who's the third

475
00:23:41,400 --> 00:23:44,880
Speaker 2: or third the second best quarterback they faced besides Allen

476
00:23:45,160 --> 00:23:47,040
Speaker 2: You is it Baker Mayfield in the second half of

477
00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:48,919
Speaker 2: the year where he was the worst quarterback in the NFL.

478
00:23:49,160 --> 00:23:52,080
Speaker 2: Like it's it's a joke. So like this defense, this

479
00:23:52,240 --> 00:23:55,280
Speaker 2: is the second best quarterback they will face all year

480
00:23:55,280 --> 00:23:57,600
Speaker 2: and by far the best defense they will face. Like,

481
00:23:57,760 --> 00:24:00,840
Speaker 2: look at the defenses they face. The charters. Number two

482
00:24:00,840 --> 00:24:03,320
Speaker 2: in EPA over the past ten weeks, so I just

483
00:24:04,280 --> 00:24:06,200
Speaker 2: I mean, look, eleven of their fourteen wins came against

484
00:24:06,200 --> 00:24:08,960
Speaker 2: either rookies, backups or quarterbacks who were benched. It's hard

485
00:24:08,960 --> 00:24:11,560
Speaker 2: to overstate how easy that schedule is. And now they're

486
00:24:11,560 --> 00:24:13,600
Speaker 2: dealing with some injuries. They also are pretty lucky on

487
00:24:13,640 --> 00:24:16,639
Speaker 2: the air fumbles. They lost only eight of twenty, They

488
00:24:16,680 --> 00:24:19,720
Speaker 2: recovered nine to fourteen fourth downs, eighteen of twenty five

489
00:24:19,760 --> 00:24:22,480
Speaker 2: on fourth down one point three epa per play, their

490
00:24:22,480 --> 00:24:26,000
Speaker 2: opponents ten of thirty minus point six EPA per play.

491
00:24:26,359 --> 00:24:28,120
Speaker 2: And then may he got away with a lot of throws.

492
00:24:28,119 --> 00:24:29,879
Speaker 2: He was tremendous. I think he deserves the MVP. But

493
00:24:30,359 --> 00:24:34,199
Speaker 2: you know, eight interceptions but seventeen turnover worthy plays. Wouldn't

494
00:24:34,240 --> 00:24:37,600
Speaker 2: be surprised if Minter forces him into a mistake or too.

495
00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:39,280
Speaker 2: There's a couple bounces and fourth downs that go the

496
00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:40,760
Speaker 2: Chargers way. And by the way, the Chargers had a

497
00:24:40,800 --> 00:24:43,160
Speaker 2: buye last week rested up. That's important late in the year.

498
00:24:43,400 --> 00:24:46,320
Speaker 2: The Patriots obviously played. I think that's worth a little something.

499
00:24:47,600 --> 00:24:49,240
Speaker 2: And then where I think this game is going to

500
00:24:49,280 --> 00:24:51,560
Speaker 2: be decided that potentially in the red zone, Chargers going

501
00:24:51,600 --> 00:24:54,199
Speaker 2: to play a lot of zone prevent explosive plays, and

502
00:24:54,240 --> 00:24:56,040
Speaker 2: then in the red zone they're excellent. I think they're

503
00:24:56,040 --> 00:24:57,719
Speaker 2: going to hold the Patriots. Then the Patriots haven't been

504
00:24:57,720 --> 00:25:00,680
Speaker 2: great in the red zone on offense. Chargers this year

505
00:25:00,720 --> 00:25:02,960
Speaker 2: forty five percent touchdown rate allowed in the red zone.

506
00:25:02,960 --> 00:25:05,040
Speaker 2: That's number four in the NFL under menter last year

507
00:25:05,119 --> 00:25:07,840
Speaker 2: forty five percent, that was number two. And then the

508
00:25:07,920 --> 00:25:10,399
Speaker 2: Chargers offense it's never great in the red zone. But

509
00:25:10,480 --> 00:25:13,200
Speaker 2: the Patriots are thirtieth in the league in red zone

510
00:25:13,200 --> 00:25:15,880
Speaker 2: touchdown percentage out and they played all of those clowns

511
00:25:16,320 --> 00:25:18,879
Speaker 2: I just listed, So there's a chance that the Chargers

512
00:25:18,880 --> 00:25:22,440
Speaker 2: can actually cap off drives with sevens here. I mean,

513
00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:24,040
Speaker 2: you're gonna give me over a field goal with an

514
00:25:24,040 --> 00:25:26,960
Speaker 2: elite coach, a great staff, and the clearly superior defense

515
00:25:27,520 --> 00:25:30,840
Speaker 2: against the quarterback making his first playoffs start, I'm taking it,

516
00:25:30,880 --> 00:25:33,200
Speaker 2: especially except for ject under three. Give me the Chargers

517
00:25:33,480 --> 00:25:35,720
Speaker 2: Herbert twelve to two to one against the spread, eighty

518
00:25:35,800 --> 00:25:38,399
Speaker 2: six percent when catching over a field goal, covering by

519
00:25:38,440 --> 00:25:40,439
Speaker 2: over a field goal per game. Give me the Bolts.

520
00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:46,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, I mean this is it's I'm reading that way

521
00:25:46,160 --> 00:25:46,520
Speaker 1: as well.

522
00:25:46,760 --> 00:25:49,680
Speaker 3: I think I think the Patriots have been as much

523
00:25:49,680 --> 00:25:51,720
Speaker 3: as I like, may you know, the team itself has

524
00:25:51,800 --> 00:25:55,800
Speaker 3: been just a little bit overrated because of the schedule.

525
00:25:56,560 --> 00:25:59,240
Speaker 3: They you know, they once you start schedule adjusting their numbers,

526
00:25:59,240 --> 00:26:01,080
Speaker 3: they come back to the pack a lot and a

527
00:26:01,119 --> 00:26:05,480
Speaker 3: lot of numbers. My biggest word here is just things.

528
00:26:05,480 --> 00:26:08,400
Speaker 3: It's hard to really quantify. It's just like those intangible factors.

529
00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:11,359
Speaker 3: It's like, okay, you know the Chargers, this is a

530
00:26:11,400 --> 00:26:14,399
Speaker 3: heart is the other hardball? Now, you know team but

531
00:26:14,520 --> 00:26:17,200
Speaker 3: you know, coming off just a sleepy week off, which

532
00:26:17,280 --> 00:26:20,640
Speaker 3: they needed. But you know, the Patriots took didn't take

533
00:26:20,640 --> 00:26:23,680
Speaker 3: a week off, and they're gonna be you know, kind

534
00:26:23,680 --> 00:26:25,720
Speaker 3: of just keeping it rolling and they have. And then

535
00:26:25,760 --> 00:26:28,200
Speaker 3: there's Mike Rabel and then you know he's always worth

536
00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:30,520
Speaker 3: a little something. And then it's like, okay, well is

537
00:26:30,560 --> 00:26:35,439
Speaker 3: this justin Herbert playoff base plant? Is there something to it?

538
00:26:35,440 --> 00:26:39,120
Speaker 3: Because when you have these hardballs, you never know. So

539
00:26:39,160 --> 00:26:40,840
Speaker 3: it's like that. But I mean that's you know, that's

540
00:26:40,840 --> 00:26:42,760
Speaker 3: here nor there. I think the right side.

541
00:26:43,400 --> 00:26:44,240
Speaker 2: Projected two and a half.

542
00:26:44,320 --> 00:26:45,000
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, yeah.

543
00:26:45,040 --> 00:26:47,520
Speaker 3: The bottom line is no, I'm just saying, like, you know,

544
00:26:47,800 --> 00:26:50,040
Speaker 3: when you kind of kind of just have like love

545
00:26:50,119 --> 00:26:52,400
Speaker 3: to go through them from the you know, the kind

546
00:26:52,400 --> 00:26:54,600
Speaker 3: of gut check angles too. That's that's really the only

547
00:26:54,640 --> 00:26:56,760
Speaker 3: hoes I can poke in the Chargers. It's not you know,

548
00:26:56,840 --> 00:27:04,159
Speaker 3: on paper. Uh yeah, they're absolutely of the right side here. Okay,

549
00:27:04,240 --> 00:27:09,440
Speaker 3: for my second pick, the third overall of the wild

550
00:27:09,520 --> 00:27:13,480
Speaker 3: Card weekend six pack, I'm going with the Philadelphia Eagles

551
00:27:13,640 --> 00:27:17,080
Speaker 3: San Francisco forty nine ers under forty four and a half.

552
00:27:17,680 --> 00:27:22,119
Speaker 3: This is a spot where you know, I kind of

553
00:27:22,119 --> 00:27:23,880
Speaker 3: had it circled, Matt, I missed. I think I think

554
00:27:23,920 --> 00:27:25,920
Speaker 3: the line opened like forty six. I think you bet

555
00:27:25,920 --> 00:27:29,040
Speaker 3: that stuck you. That was that was smart. I ended

556
00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:31,040
Speaker 3: up missing it. I'm hoping that maybe I'll maybe I'll

557
00:27:31,040 --> 00:27:32,639
Speaker 3: get back to forty five. And because he's get a

558
00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:34,439
Speaker 3: little insurance, but I mean not a key, not a

559
00:27:34,480 --> 00:27:37,320
Speaker 3: key number. So it doesn't matter for the contest. Uh.

560
00:27:39,119 --> 00:27:41,920
Speaker 3: We know the Eagles offense can go through these stretches

561
00:27:41,960 --> 00:27:45,880
Speaker 3: where it is just brutal. We've seen this all year.

562
00:27:47,359 --> 00:27:53,320
Speaker 3: The Niners on defense are not good. But when you

563
00:27:53,359 --> 00:27:56,400
Speaker 3: look at the Niners games and you see a lot

564
00:27:56,400 --> 00:27:59,679
Speaker 3: of high scoring games, what is the common denominator in

565
00:27:59,680 --> 00:28:05,280
Speaker 3: those games? It's that the Niners have been able to score. Thus,

566
00:28:05,640 --> 00:28:09,960
Speaker 3: you know, starting essentially kicking off a shootout, and their

567
00:28:10,000 --> 00:28:12,920
Speaker 3: defense is easy to move the ball against, and therefore

568
00:28:13,480 --> 00:28:15,720
Speaker 3: you see a ton of high scoring games. Stuck, I

569
00:28:15,720 --> 00:28:18,160
Speaker 3: think you pointed out that, you know, last week into

570
00:28:18,160 --> 00:28:21,760
Speaker 3: that Seahawks Niners game, that total was just it was

571
00:28:21,920 --> 00:28:25,040
Speaker 3: kind of ridiculous in retrospect, ended up being like, you know,

572
00:28:25,080 --> 00:28:27,800
Speaker 3: like a thirteen to three game. But it's you know,

573
00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:29,560
Speaker 3: once you have when you when you play the Niners

574
00:28:29,600 --> 00:28:31,040
Speaker 3: and you can kind of hold them down.

575
00:28:31,520 --> 00:28:33,520
Speaker 1: Now it turns into a whole different game, Scrip.

576
00:28:33,320 --> 00:28:38,840
Speaker 3: Because Shanahan is generally conservative, right, He's gonna run the ball.

577
00:28:38,880 --> 00:28:41,520
Speaker 3: He's not gonna try to make his quarterback do too

578
00:28:41,560 --> 00:28:46,440
Speaker 3: much against this this Philadelphia Fangio defense. He's gonna Wina McCaffrey.

579
00:28:46,960 --> 00:28:48,920
Speaker 3: It's gonna Wina on his tight end Kittle. So it's

580
00:28:48,960 --> 00:28:52,280
Speaker 3: gonna be you know, you're gonna try to manufacture explosives.

581
00:28:52,400 --> 00:28:54,400
Speaker 3: You're not really You're probably not gonna be that successful

582
00:28:54,400 --> 00:29:00,800
Speaker 3: against Philadelphia. And Philadelphia on the other end, like, yes,

583
00:29:00,840 --> 00:29:03,960
Speaker 3: this Niner defense is really bad, but what are the

584
00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:06,360
Speaker 3: things that Niners like to do to kind of combat that.

585
00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:10,120
Speaker 1: Well, they like to sit back. They don't like to

586
00:29:10,120 --> 00:29:10,960
Speaker 1: give up explosives.

587
00:29:10,960 --> 00:29:12,600
Speaker 3: They still want to make you drive the length of

588
00:29:12,640 --> 00:29:16,520
Speaker 3: the field, not make mistakes, you know, injure a couple

589
00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:18,880
Speaker 3: of linebackers along the way if you have to. But

590
00:29:19,400 --> 00:29:21,720
Speaker 3: it's it's one of those defenses. They don't stack the

591
00:29:21,760 --> 00:29:25,560
Speaker 3: box a ton, which I actually think. I know the

592
00:29:25,600 --> 00:29:27,680
Speaker 3: Eagles are you know, a team that wants to be

593
00:29:27,680 --> 00:29:29,080
Speaker 3: able to run the ball, and you say, oh, well,

594
00:29:29,080 --> 00:29:30,440
Speaker 3: you know, stack the box against the Eagles.

595
00:29:30,480 --> 00:29:31,960
Speaker 1: They're just gonna go crazy.

596
00:29:32,000 --> 00:29:34,640
Speaker 3: But I actually like not stacking the box against Philly

597
00:29:34,680 --> 00:29:36,840
Speaker 3: because I've seen this kind of play out the opposite

598
00:29:36,840 --> 00:29:41,040
Speaker 3: way just way too many times last year with Sae

599
00:29:41,120 --> 00:29:44,800
Speaker 3: Kwon Barkley, where you know, I'm betting against the Eagles

600
00:29:44,880 --> 00:29:46,440
Speaker 3: or are betting on an under or something like that,

601
00:29:46,480 --> 00:29:48,320
Speaker 3: and then it's you know, they stacked the box and

602
00:29:48,320 --> 00:29:50,000
Speaker 3: then they get the angles and then it's just just

603
00:29:50,120 --> 00:29:52,720
Speaker 3: knowing in the back on the back end to save it.

604
00:29:52,800 --> 00:29:55,680
Speaker 3: So the Niners tend to not stack the box. They

605
00:29:55,680 --> 00:29:57,480
Speaker 3: do it at the lowest rate in the league.

606
00:29:57,560 --> 00:29:58,960
Speaker 1: So I think the Eagles.

607
00:29:58,640 --> 00:30:00,200
Speaker 3: Are going to be able to move the ball all

608
00:30:00,640 --> 00:30:04,480
Speaker 3: But now you're asking an offense that was broken for

609
00:30:05,080 --> 00:30:07,520
Speaker 3: what I mean, at least half the year, and it

610
00:30:07,560 --> 00:30:10,680
Speaker 3: had a stretch in almost every game where they just

611
00:30:10,720 --> 00:30:14,480
Speaker 3: go dead for over multiple quarters. You're asking them to,

612
00:30:14,560 --> 00:30:19,320
Speaker 3: you know, drive up and down the field methodically, and

613
00:30:20,160 --> 00:30:22,959
Speaker 3: you know you're going to You're probably not gonna need

614
00:30:23,000 --> 00:30:24,840
Speaker 3: to push it because I don't think the Niners are

615
00:30:24,960 --> 00:30:28,520
Speaker 3: gonna have a ton of success offensively and unfortunately, because

616
00:30:28,520 --> 00:30:30,600
Speaker 3: I really wanted to see the Eagles get you know,

617
00:30:30,680 --> 00:30:32,560
Speaker 3: kind of a knocked out early like I wanted, and

618
00:30:32,560 --> 00:30:33,920
Speaker 3: I wanted to see the Niners kind of.

619
00:30:33,920 --> 00:30:35,400
Speaker 1: Make it back. But I just don't know if they

620
00:30:35,480 --> 00:30:36,600
Speaker 1: have enough here.

621
00:30:36,840 --> 00:30:38,840
Speaker 2: But yeah, I wanted to play. I wanted to fade Philly.

622
00:30:38,880 --> 00:30:41,400
Speaker 1: But yeah, it.

623
00:30:41,880 --> 00:30:47,040
Speaker 3: Feels like it feels very similar to that game last

624
00:30:47,080 --> 00:30:49,520
Speaker 3: year where Philly was coming in. I think they were

625
00:30:49,560 --> 00:30:51,720
Speaker 3: home against Green Bay and it was like, you know,

626
00:30:52,320 --> 00:30:54,200
Speaker 3: we respect green Bay a lot. You know, green Bay,

627
00:30:54,840 --> 00:30:57,280
Speaker 3: all things considered health wise, if they were good, probably

628
00:30:57,280 --> 00:30:58,920
Speaker 3: would have been able to make some noise.

629
00:30:58,960 --> 00:31:01,600
Speaker 1: But just guys dropped like flies before the game in

630
00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:03,640
Speaker 1: the game, and it's like San Francisco is kind of

631
00:31:03,680 --> 00:31:04,120
Speaker 1: the same thing.

632
00:31:04,160 --> 00:31:06,520
Speaker 3: It's like, I mean, just watching these guys just drop

633
00:31:06,600 --> 00:31:09,200
Speaker 3: like flies against the Seahawks and knowing what they were

634
00:31:09,240 --> 00:31:11,320
Speaker 3: gonna have to do next in the week after that.

635
00:31:11,480 --> 00:31:14,680
Speaker 1: I mean, uh yeah, so that's that's kind of the

636
00:31:14,680 --> 00:31:15,040
Speaker 1: cap here.

637
00:31:15,080 --> 00:31:17,680
Speaker 3: I just think that both these teams are conservative, and

638
00:31:18,240 --> 00:31:20,880
Speaker 3: we've seen these We've seen the Eagles be like a

639
00:31:20,920 --> 00:31:23,520
Speaker 3: stone colde under team when their defense is quicking, which

640
00:31:23,520 --> 00:31:25,400
Speaker 3: it will be, and the Niners be a stone colde

641
00:31:25,480 --> 00:31:28,400
Speaker 3: under team when they can't create a shootout like you know,

642
00:31:28,480 --> 00:31:30,640
Speaker 3: game against the Grounds, game against the Seahawks.

643
00:31:30,720 --> 00:31:33,520
Speaker 1: So yeah, give me the under forty four and a half. Yeah.

644
00:31:33,600 --> 00:31:35,600
Speaker 2: The Eagles also coming off basically a big while the

645
00:31:35,600 --> 00:31:37,600
Speaker 2: forty nine ers were in like a war that forty

646
00:31:37,640 --> 00:31:40,440
Speaker 2: nine ers a ton of linebacker injuries. I mean Tatum

647
00:31:40,480 --> 00:31:44,760
Speaker 2: Buns backed up for Warner and then you know, I

648
00:31:44,760 --> 00:31:48,680
Speaker 2: mean de Winters, it's dealing with a groin, Giffer dealing

649
00:31:48,760 --> 00:31:50,120
Speaker 2: with a quad. I mean, they been able to don't

650
00:31:50,120 --> 00:31:52,760
Speaker 2: be down their top four linebackers, and it's a defense

651
00:31:52,760 --> 00:31:54,640
Speaker 2: I can't get any pressure. I mean, since they lost

652
00:31:54,640 --> 00:31:56,880
Speaker 2: both Bosa and Warner, I mean, this has been a

653
00:31:56,920 --> 00:31:58,720
Speaker 2: sad you know, the second lowest pressure rate in the

654
00:31:58,800 --> 00:32:02,920
Speaker 2: league to eight epa per play, but I like the

655
00:32:02,960 --> 00:32:07,840
Speaker 2: under here too. I mean, this is historically Fangio his

656
00:32:07,920 --> 00:32:09,920
Speaker 2: own Shanahan, by the way they've met five times, had

657
00:32:09,920 --> 00:32:11,480
Speaker 2: to add to either when Shanahan was a head coach

658
00:32:11,600 --> 00:32:15,920
Speaker 2: or a coordinator. He's never cleared fifteen points averaged, I

659
00:32:15,960 --> 00:32:19,520
Speaker 2: think around eleven points per game. Eagles are number one

660
00:32:19,520 --> 00:32:21,080
Speaker 2: in the league against tight ends, number one in the

661
00:32:21,120 --> 00:32:24,040
Speaker 2: league against short passes. I don't think Pearsall is going

662
00:32:24,120 --> 00:32:26,200
Speaker 2: to play. That's kind of the area where they might

663
00:32:26,240 --> 00:32:28,400
Speaker 2: have had some success with some explosive plays against that

664
00:32:28,400 --> 00:32:31,080
Speaker 2: second corner spot for the Eagles. I also don't think

665
00:32:31,120 --> 00:32:34,360
Speaker 2: Trent Williams is going to play. I also have a

666
00:32:34,480 --> 00:32:36,880
Speaker 2: sneakings fision. Lane Johnson's going to be out this week,

667
00:32:37,120 --> 00:32:40,840
Speaker 2: and we know the Eagles offense much different with him

668
00:32:40,840 --> 00:32:42,840
Speaker 2: Without Lane Johnson, and the Eagles offense just isn't the

669
00:32:42,840 --> 00:32:45,800
Speaker 2: same group this year that it was last year. I mean,

670
00:32:45,840 --> 00:32:48,760
Speaker 2: they're but thirtieth in line yards, twenty ninth and stuff freight.

671
00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:50,840
Speaker 2: The offensive line is nowhere near as good. They're dealing

672
00:32:50,840 --> 00:32:53,440
Speaker 2: with a ton of injuries. The play calling is brutal.

673
00:32:53,640 --> 00:32:55,520
Speaker 2: I mean, how many times can you run a hitch route?

674
00:32:55,720 --> 00:32:59,560
Speaker 2: And that's why they go into a shell for like

675
00:32:59,560 --> 00:33:01,440
Speaker 2: a quarter or a half every game. And it's against

676
00:33:01,440 --> 00:33:03,480
Speaker 2: bad defenses too. Go back to the Dallas game where

677
00:33:03,480 --> 00:33:06,200
Speaker 2: they couldn't score indoors against the Dallas defense for an

678
00:33:06,320 --> 00:33:09,800
Speaker 2: entire half. Because the team that won, yeah, Bears. This

679
00:33:09,800 --> 00:33:11,280
Speaker 2: is a team that won two games this year without

680
00:33:11,320 --> 00:33:13,200
Speaker 2: completing a pass in the second half. And even if

681
00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:14,960
Speaker 2: they do get out to a big lead, they're like

682
00:33:15,000 --> 00:33:17,040
Speaker 2: a service academy. They're in the second half, they can

683
00:33:17,080 --> 00:33:19,040
Speaker 2: go on like a twelve minute drive to run out

684
00:33:19,040 --> 00:33:22,200
Speaker 2: the clock. So and if you look this Niners offense

685
00:33:22,280 --> 00:33:23,480
Speaker 2: was exploding at the end of the year, but it

686
00:33:23,480 --> 00:33:26,880
Speaker 2: was against bad, really beat up defenses. Against the Seahawks,

687
00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:30,240
Speaker 2: the Browns, they didn't do anything. They only averaged seventeen

688
00:33:30,280 --> 00:33:32,960
Speaker 2: points per game in the games they faced top ten

689
00:33:33,040 --> 00:33:36,720
Speaker 2: defenses this year. I think that's their ceiling here. They

690
00:33:36,760 --> 00:33:39,600
Speaker 2: don't match up well against the Seagles defense. If they

691
00:33:39,640 --> 00:33:42,160
Speaker 2: even get to seventeen, can they hold Philly under thirty?

692
00:33:42,720 --> 00:33:44,800
Speaker 2: I think so. I mean Philly's only gotten to thirty

693
00:33:44,840 --> 00:33:47,960
Speaker 2: four times, thirty one against the Raiders, thirty one against

694
00:33:47,960 --> 00:33:50,600
Speaker 2: the Bucks, thirty eight against the Giants, and then they

695
00:33:50,600 --> 00:33:52,680
Speaker 2: got to thirty because of a blocked field goal returned

696
00:33:52,880 --> 00:33:56,960
Speaker 2: with no time left against the Rams. So yeah, I

697
00:33:56,960 --> 00:34:00,560
Speaker 2: don't think without Lane Johnson. Here's what the forty nineers

698
00:34:00,560 --> 00:34:02,160
Speaker 2: are gonna do. They're gonna play a ton of zone,

699
00:34:02,200 --> 00:34:05,000
Speaker 2: a ton of too high limit the explosives. They still

700
00:34:05,000 --> 00:34:08,000
Speaker 2: can do that well. They still are a good defense

701
00:34:08,040 --> 00:34:10,880
Speaker 2: in the red zone under Sawa. Also Sola versus Patoola

702
00:34:10,880 --> 00:34:13,600
Speaker 2: a huge mismatch in favor of the forty nine ers defense.

703
00:34:14,360 --> 00:34:16,239
Speaker 2: And they're gonna play a ton of zone. I like

704
00:34:16,400 --> 00:34:20,360
Speaker 2: playing more zone against Hurts compared to Man and the

705
00:34:20,440 --> 00:34:22,920
Speaker 2: Eagles offense. Yes, they have to score on the seventy

706
00:34:22,920 --> 00:34:24,600
Speaker 2: percent score touchdowns on the seventy percent of the red

707
00:34:24,640 --> 00:34:26,360
Speaker 2: zon dras, which is number one in the NFL. I

708
00:34:26,360 --> 00:34:28,160
Speaker 2: don't think that's sustainable. A lot of noise in that

709
00:34:28,280 --> 00:34:29,959
Speaker 2: they were a better offense last year and a fifty

710
00:34:29,960 --> 00:34:32,239
Speaker 2: eight percent, so I wouldn't be surprised if we saw

711
00:34:32,440 --> 00:34:34,799
Speaker 2: some red zone trips end in field goals here. I

712
00:34:34,920 --> 00:34:36,839
Speaker 2: like the under outdoor under. There's gonna be some win too.

713
00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:39,560
Speaker 2: Since two thousand and three postseason unders and outdoor games

714
00:34:39,600 --> 00:34:41,400
Speaker 2: with an average win speed of more than ten miles

715
00:34:41,400 --> 00:34:45,120
Speaker 2: per hour twenty eight to two against the closing total,

716
00:34:45,160 --> 00:34:47,640
Speaker 2: staying under by more than six points per game. And

717
00:34:48,480 --> 00:34:52,480
Speaker 2: I mean, if you just look at unders in outdoors

718
00:34:52,640 --> 00:34:56,439
Speaker 2: above forty four in the wild Card round thirty one

719
00:34:56,719 --> 00:35:00,000
Speaker 2: and ten to the under seventy five point six percent,

720
00:35:00,760 --> 00:35:04,400
Speaker 2: I think this is like twenty seven to fourteen eagles,

721
00:35:05,080 --> 00:35:06,200
Speaker 2: So I like the under as well.

722
00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:08,359
Speaker 3: All right, before we get to the rest of the

723
00:35:09,440 --> 00:35:11,960
Speaker 3: six pack, here is your weekly reminder to sign up

724
00:35:12,000 --> 00:35:14,680
Speaker 3: for Action Pro Only. Action Pro subscribers get real time

725
00:35:14,719 --> 00:35:18,480
Speaker 3: notifications with Stucky, Brandon Anderson, Sean Kerner, or any of

726
00:35:18,520 --> 00:35:21,919
Speaker 3: our action experts track picks in the app. There will

727
00:35:21,960 --> 00:35:24,960
Speaker 3: be plenty of fun sweats this NFL postseason, so you

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Speaker 3: want to get on board right now. You can use

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Speaker 3: promo code Pod twenty for twenty dollars off an annual subscription.

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733
00:35:36,160 --> 00:35:39,759
Speaker 3: The rest of the wild Card Weekend six pack is

734
00:35:39,760 --> 00:35:41,520
Speaker 3: coming up, but first I'll throw it to myself for

735
00:35:41,560 --> 00:35:44,440
Speaker 3: a quick word from our sponsor, Draftking. The Action Network

736
00:35:44,480 --> 00:35:47,840
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00:36:13,840 --> 00:36:15,799
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746
00:36:16,200 --> 00:36:19,440
Speaker 1: I stuck. We're going second, all right?

747
00:36:19,440 --> 00:36:23,080
Speaker 2: For my second pick and the fourth overall the Wildcard

748
00:36:23,120 --> 00:36:26,400
Speaker 2: weekend six pack, I'm going with the Green Bay Packers

749
00:36:26,400 --> 00:36:28,120
Speaker 2: minus one and a half at the Chicago Bears. I

750
00:36:28,160 --> 00:36:31,560
Speaker 2: bet this when they were an underdog. It's moved since

751
00:36:31,760 --> 00:36:33,680
Speaker 2: we came up with our script, but I would still

752
00:36:33,680 --> 00:36:36,799
Speaker 2: play the Packers here. I think it's I think it's

753
00:36:36,840 --> 00:36:38,839
Speaker 2: over for the Bears. Look shot to the Bears. Love

754
00:36:38,880 --> 00:36:41,719
Speaker 2: them this year, got the division, got the playoffs, got

755
00:36:41,719 --> 00:36:44,920
Speaker 2: their win total over but it was extremely fluky. I

756
00:36:44,960 --> 00:36:46,520
Speaker 2: mean this is a team that easily they easily could

757
00:36:46,520 --> 00:36:48,520
Speaker 2: have went oh to six in the division. They were

758
00:36:48,520 --> 00:36:50,719
Speaker 2: only the second team in the past thirty years that

759
00:36:50,760 --> 00:36:53,200
Speaker 2: won a division with a losing division record. Their two

760
00:36:53,280 --> 00:36:55,720
Speaker 2: wins came because of an on side kick recovery against

761
00:36:55,719 --> 00:36:59,240
Speaker 2: the Packers and a long kick return against JJ McCarthy

762
00:36:59,280 --> 00:37:01,320
Speaker 2: and the Viking. That's how closely where they're going to

763
00:37:01,360 --> 00:37:04,040
Speaker 2: owe six in the division. They also had an NFL

764
00:37:04,120 --> 00:37:06,600
Speaker 2: best six wins when trailing with under two minutes to go.

765
00:37:06,760 --> 00:37:09,839
Speaker 2: They easily could have lost to the Raiders, the Commanders,

766
00:37:10,360 --> 00:37:14,960
Speaker 2: the Bengals with Flacco, the Giants, the Vikings, the Steelers

767
00:37:14,960 --> 00:37:18,680
Speaker 2: with Rudolph, the Packers with Willis. Like those, they're all

768
00:37:18,719 --> 00:37:20,839
Speaker 2: games they won to the final seconds. This team usually

769
00:37:20,880 --> 00:37:25,200
Speaker 2: couldud eleven losses. I mean, no joke. So they also

770
00:37:25,239 --> 00:37:27,719
Speaker 2: had a plus twenty two turnover margin. Packers were plus one.

771
00:37:27,760 --> 00:37:30,360
Speaker 2: The Bears led the league in takeaways and giveaways. And

772
00:37:30,400 --> 00:37:32,880
Speaker 2: it's not like Klea Wings didn't put the ball on

773
00:37:32,920 --> 00:37:33,439
Speaker 2: Harm's way.

774
00:37:33,560 --> 00:37:33,839
Speaker 1: He did.

775
00:37:34,000 --> 00:37:36,680
Speaker 2: You look at turnover worthy plays. He probably should have

776
00:37:36,680 --> 00:37:39,440
Speaker 2: had a couple more picks. The Bears were number one

777
00:37:39,480 --> 00:37:42,719
Speaker 2: in turnover EPA, the Packers thirtieth. Don't be surprised if

778
00:37:42,719 --> 00:37:45,719
Speaker 2: a couple of bounces go Green Bay's way. Here and

779
00:37:45,760 --> 00:37:49,160
Speaker 2: this Bears defense is atrocious thirtieth and EPA per played

780
00:37:49,200 --> 00:37:53,680
Speaker 2: without turnovers, Packers are thirteenth. Early down drop back success

781
00:37:53,760 --> 00:37:58,920
Speaker 2: rate without turnovers Packers seventh, Bears twenty sixth Caleb Williams. Also,

782
00:37:59,600 --> 00:38:01,640
Speaker 2: I have them much better quarterback here, and by the way,

783
00:38:02,120 --> 00:38:04,879
Speaker 2: first time starting quarterback and making his first playoffs start

784
00:38:04,880 --> 00:38:07,560
Speaker 2: against the quarterback with playoff experience, But kayleb Williams, he's

785
00:38:07,560 --> 00:38:10,719
Speaker 2: dead lasting completion percentage of expectation on early downs for

786
00:38:10,800 --> 00:38:14,840
Speaker 2: the full season EPA plus completion sets are over expectation.

787
00:38:14,960 --> 00:38:18,040
Speaker 2: Love is third, Caleb is twenty eighth. Caleb the third

788
00:38:18,120 --> 00:38:22,480
Speaker 2: highest bad throw rate in the league, only one of

789
00:38:22,520 --> 00:38:24,760
Speaker 2: three quarterbacks with a bath throw rate north of twenty percent.

790
00:38:24,800 --> 00:38:28,800
Speaker 2: The other two are JJ McCarthy and Pennix. So here's

791
00:38:29,040 --> 00:38:31,440
Speaker 2: how I think this plays out. The biggest key for

792
00:38:31,520 --> 00:38:33,680
Speaker 2: me and by the way, do not. It is not

793
00:38:33,960 --> 00:38:37,640
Speaker 2: insignificant that the Packers got a buy last week. They rested,

794
00:38:37,680 --> 00:38:39,880
Speaker 2: everyone punted the game like I thought they would. I

795
00:38:39,920 --> 00:38:41,719
Speaker 2: almost quite said it was gonna be twenty three to three,

796
00:38:41,760 --> 00:38:44,480
Speaker 2: but Max Brosmer turned it over inside the ten olthoughse

797
00:38:44,480 --> 00:38:46,160
Speaker 2: that would have been the exact final score. They didn't

798
00:38:46,160 --> 00:38:47,880
Speaker 2: care about that game. They didn't game plan for the game.

799
00:38:47,920 --> 00:38:50,440
Speaker 2: They were game planning for this game. They rested everyone

800
00:38:50,480 --> 00:38:52,840
Speaker 2: with injuries, and the Bears, by the way, they tried

801
00:38:53,600 --> 00:38:56,560
Speaker 2: and exhuded more effort, had a couple more injuries. These

802
00:38:56,560 --> 00:38:58,880
Speaker 2: two teams. They had their bye week in Week five.

803
00:38:59,320 --> 00:39:01,880
Speaker 2: That's a valuable week off before the playoffs. Last week

804
00:39:01,920 --> 00:39:03,520
Speaker 2: for Green Bay and now they're going to have a

805
00:39:03,600 --> 00:39:06,240
Speaker 2: should have Zack tom back their full arsenal of weapons.

806
00:39:06,320 --> 00:39:08,960
Speaker 2: Jordan loved the number one quarterback in the NFL this year.

807
00:39:08,960 --> 00:39:10,880
Speaker 2: With a clean pocket. Well, guess what you're gonna get

808
00:39:11,280 --> 00:39:13,160
Speaker 2: up against the Bears. You're gonna have a clean pocket

809
00:39:13,160 --> 00:39:16,359
Speaker 2: all day long, especially with Tom back. The Bears give

810
00:39:16,440 --> 00:39:21,480
Speaker 2: up explosives. The Packers hit explosives. The Packers' limit explosives.

811
00:39:21,680 --> 00:39:25,240
Speaker 2: I think that's the difference. Yes, Chicago's gonna have success

812
00:39:25,280 --> 00:39:28,479
Speaker 2: running the ball with Ben Johnson. They always do, although

813
00:39:28,480 --> 00:39:30,279
Speaker 2: I thought Green Bay's defense did a really good job

814
00:39:30,280 --> 00:39:32,279
Speaker 2: without Parsons in their last meeting. By the way, the

815
00:39:32,280 --> 00:39:35,440
Speaker 2: Packers I thought were the much better team in both meetings.

816
00:39:35,480 --> 00:39:38,560
Speaker 2: They never trailed until the final play of overtime. In Chicago,

817
00:39:38,760 --> 00:39:41,759
Speaker 2: it took fourteen miracles. I mean there was a face

818
00:39:41,800 --> 00:39:43,320
Speaker 2: mess that would have ended the game. It would have

819
00:39:43,320 --> 00:39:45,360
Speaker 2: been fourth and thirty. That would have been to the

820
00:39:45,400 --> 00:39:46,839
Speaker 2: game before a field goal, then an onside, and then

821
00:39:46,840 --> 00:39:51,000
Speaker 2: a touchdown. Then I mean the Packers should have swept

822
00:39:51,000 --> 00:39:55,600
Speaker 2: the Bears. So yeah, I think the gig is up.

823
00:39:55,960 --> 00:39:58,120
Speaker 2: I know it's going to be an electric first Bears

824
00:39:58,160 --> 00:40:02,239
Speaker 2: home playoff game since the double doink. But there might

825
00:40:02,280 --> 00:40:03,839
Speaker 2: be some snow here. It could be a snow over.

826
00:40:04,400 --> 00:40:07,120
Speaker 2: I originally love this over, but I'm worried about the wind,

827
00:40:07,200 --> 00:40:08,520
Speaker 2: so I got to watch the wind. There might be

828
00:40:08,560 --> 00:40:10,160
Speaker 2: some snow so I keep an eye on the Action

829
00:40:10,200 --> 00:40:14,120
Speaker 2: Network AP. I might have something on this total. But yeah,

830
00:40:14,200 --> 00:40:16,920
Speaker 2: the Bears were an extremely lucky team this year. I

831
00:40:16,920 --> 00:40:18,680
Speaker 2: think this is a luck rankings game. I saw Nick

832
00:40:18,760 --> 00:40:20,880
Speaker 2: Giff and put it in. The Packers went zero to

833
00:40:20,880 --> 00:40:22,560
Speaker 2: three where they didn't punt. The rest of the NF

834
00:40:22,560 --> 00:40:24,200
Speaker 2: it only happened eleven times. The rest of the NFL

835
00:40:24,239 --> 00:40:28,239
Speaker 2: went eight. No, the Bears very lucky. One possession games,

836
00:40:28,320 --> 00:40:30,759
Speaker 2: end of game like just turnovers. I think it comes

837
00:40:30,800 --> 00:40:35,799
Speaker 2: to an end here, give me the green May Packers

838
00:40:36,280 --> 00:40:39,320
Speaker 2: to advance. I'll take the better and more experienced quarterback.

839
00:40:39,960 --> 00:40:41,960
Speaker 2: I know the Packers the defense has been trending down,

840
00:40:43,080 --> 00:40:46,000
Speaker 2: and it's not a great unit without Parsons, but it's

841
00:40:46,000 --> 00:40:48,480
Speaker 2: still better than the Bears. And I have the better

842
00:40:48,560 --> 00:40:51,480
Speaker 2: quarterback and the better passing attack. Give me Green Bay.

843
00:40:52,000 --> 00:40:55,279
Speaker 3: Yeah, like the number a lot better. Obviously when when

844
00:40:55,280 --> 00:41:00,919
Speaker 3: the pack were underdogs, you know it, I think they're

845
00:41:00,960 --> 00:41:04,600
Speaker 3: the right side. But a little bit similarly to just

846
00:41:04,920 --> 00:41:08,960
Speaker 3: like the Ravens or the Chargers, Packers have just been

847
00:41:09,000 --> 00:41:11,719
Speaker 3: a hard team for me personally to handicap, and they

848
00:41:11,719 --> 00:41:14,040
Speaker 3: are in this spot for me too, because, yeah, the

849
00:41:14,120 --> 00:41:18,480
Speaker 3: numbers are great. How do you just quantify the sweepwalk

850
00:41:18,520 --> 00:41:21,080
Speaker 3: through the last month of the season with you know,

851
00:41:21,160 --> 00:41:24,960
Speaker 3: combined with to buy, combined with the fact that I

852
00:41:25,000 --> 00:41:26,640
Speaker 3: do think, you know, this is a game where I

853
00:41:26,640 --> 00:41:28,719
Speaker 3: don't think they're gonna be out coached. I mean, I

854
00:41:28,719 --> 00:41:30,719
Speaker 3: don't think the Bears are gonna be out coached. Uh,

855
00:41:30,800 --> 00:41:32,920
Speaker 3: you know they you know, that's that's one thing that's

856
00:41:33,000 --> 00:41:35,120
Speaker 3: kind of been going in their direction. So it's it's

857
00:41:35,200 --> 00:41:39,240
Speaker 3: just and and then you know, the Packers kind of okay,

858
00:41:39,280 --> 00:41:41,480
Speaker 3: they've they've been sleepwalking through the last month of the year.

859
00:41:41,880 --> 00:41:42,560
Speaker 1: They had to buy.

860
00:41:44,040 --> 00:41:46,400
Speaker 3: Now they're playing a division opponent for the third time.

861
00:41:46,640 --> 00:41:51,040
Speaker 3: You know, how are you, like, what what's the practice?

862
00:41:51,080 --> 00:41:52,879
Speaker 3: What are the practices? Like how hard are you going?

863
00:41:53,239 --> 00:41:55,200
Speaker 3: Are you going super hard? Because this team has also

864
00:41:55,239 --> 00:41:58,359
Speaker 3: struggled with in game injuries just inexplicably, So yeah, yeah,

865
00:41:58,400 --> 00:42:00,200
Speaker 3: those are like it's the same thing with as the

866
00:42:00,280 --> 00:42:03,360
Speaker 3: charge is where it's on paper. I think the Packers

867
00:42:03,400 --> 00:42:05,600
Speaker 3: are should are the rightfle, they should be favored even

868
00:42:05,640 --> 00:42:06,200
Speaker 3: on a road.

869
00:42:06,719 --> 00:42:07,920
Speaker 1: Oh. I think that I worry.

870
00:42:07,719 --> 00:42:10,279
Speaker 3: About is just intangibles, which I think more often than

871
00:42:10,320 --> 00:42:12,440
Speaker 3: that you're gonna you're gonna, uh, you're gonna be on.

872
00:42:12,440 --> 00:42:15,840
Speaker 1: The right side of that. So I can't knock it U.

873
00:42:16,160 --> 00:42:20,160
Speaker 2: But for the over you saw last week, Johnson didn't

874
00:42:20,160 --> 00:42:22,600
Speaker 2: go for it late against the Lions. Obviously didn't end

875
00:42:22,640 --> 00:42:25,960
Speaker 2: up cost him because the Eagles also lost, but he whispered.

876
00:42:26,040 --> 00:42:27,359
Speaker 2: You could tell on that you see on the side

877
00:42:27,400 --> 00:42:29,800
Speaker 2: and he whispered himself should have went for it. I

878
00:42:29,880 --> 00:42:31,279
Speaker 2: think that might carry out of this week and they

879
00:42:31,360 --> 00:42:34,080
Speaker 2: might be pretty aggressive on four downs. He knows the

880
00:42:34,120 --> 00:42:37,719
Speaker 2: state of that defense, and I think la Floor is

881
00:42:37,719 --> 00:42:42,200
Speaker 2: gonna be aggressive here. So in that first game, like

882
00:42:42,680 --> 00:42:46,560
Speaker 2: the game went under, but there was like six drives

883
00:42:46,560 --> 00:42:49,560
Speaker 2: of like seventy yards that either ended in turnover, on

884
00:42:49,719 --> 00:42:54,680
Speaker 2: downs or field goals. Yeah, I think depending on the weather,

885
00:42:55,239 --> 00:42:56,880
Speaker 2: you gotta worry about the wind in Chicago this time

886
00:42:56,920 --> 00:42:58,400
Speaker 2: of the year. But I might be on the over,

887
00:42:58,520 --> 00:42:59,960
Speaker 2: especially if there's the right amount of snow and then

888
00:43:00,040 --> 00:43:02,120
Speaker 2: wind isn't too bad. But I like the Packers to

889
00:43:02,160 --> 00:43:03,120
Speaker 2: get it done in advance.

890
00:43:03,880 --> 00:43:06,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think. Yeah, No, I'm sorry, I was gonna say.

891
00:43:06,360 --> 00:43:09,040
Speaker 3: I do like the I do mean over as well.

892
00:43:09,080 --> 00:43:11,480
Speaker 3: I think the Bears, if it looks like a dunes,

893
00:43:11,520 --> 00:43:13,960
Speaker 3: they may have a chance to come back this week.

894
00:43:14,000 --> 00:43:16,480
Speaker 3: But I really like what I've seen out jday Walker,

895
00:43:16,800 --> 00:43:19,520
Speaker 3: one of their receivers, so I wonder if they still

896
00:43:19,560 --> 00:43:22,440
Speaker 3: give him some snaps. That's a that's a under I'm

897
00:43:22,440 --> 00:43:23,799
Speaker 3: not going there for the touchdown, but that is an

898
00:43:23,920 --> 00:43:27,719
Speaker 3: underrated touchdown bet because I could see him getting some

899
00:43:27,719 --> 00:43:32,360
Speaker 3: some red zone snaps against those undersized Packer corners.

900
00:43:32,480 --> 00:43:33,920
Speaker 1: But for.

901
00:43:36,000 --> 00:43:39,839
Speaker 3: My third and final pick, the fifth overall of the

902
00:43:40,040 --> 00:43:45,480
Speaker 3: wild Card weekend six pack, I think you called this

903
00:43:45,600 --> 00:43:47,520
Speaker 3: last week that one of us was going to do this.

904
00:43:48,960 --> 00:43:51,000
Speaker 1: Hate to do it, but gotta do it.

905
00:43:51,280 --> 00:43:53,920
Speaker 3: I'm going with the Carolina Panthers plus ten and a

906
00:43:53,960 --> 00:43:59,160
Speaker 3: half as home dogs to the Los Angeles Rams, and

907
00:44:00,880 --> 00:44:03,799
Speaker 3: it is disgusting. I know it's not gonna be a

908
00:44:03,800 --> 00:44:07,640
Speaker 3: fun play. But we've got a couple of things working.

909
00:44:07,360 --> 00:44:07,879
Speaker 1: For us here.

910
00:44:08,120 --> 00:44:12,759
Speaker 3: Number One, you look at the I already mentioned kind

911
00:44:12,760 --> 00:44:17,640
Speaker 3: of a history of when you know, teams are at

912
00:44:17,760 --> 00:44:21,680
Speaker 3: home as underdogs in the playoffs. So let's look at it.

913
00:44:21,800 --> 00:44:23,399
Speaker 3: Let's look at it another way. Let's look at road

914
00:44:23,440 --> 00:44:29,719
Speaker 3: favorites and going back like all time in the playoffs,

915
00:44:30,160 --> 00:44:35,319
Speaker 3: you look for a spread this high, you got a

916
00:44:35,440 --> 00:44:39,520
Speaker 3: road favorite covered in the playoffs, and you can't find it.

917
00:44:39,920 --> 00:44:42,400
Speaker 2: This will be the largest road favorite in NFL history.

918
00:44:42,160 --> 00:44:45,480
Speaker 3: If it's yeah, yeah, it just it just hasn't. It's

919
00:44:45,520 --> 00:44:46,919
Speaker 3: never been. It's never been.

920
00:44:47,600 --> 00:44:50,440
Speaker 4: So but you look at the you look at any number,

921
00:44:51,160 --> 00:44:56,280
Speaker 4: uh that's even been a touchdown or higher, So seven

922
00:44:56,360 --> 00:44:59,600
Speaker 4: or higher never been covered by a road favorite in

923
00:44:59,680 --> 00:45:01,359
Speaker 4: a post season game in the history of.

924
00:45:01,280 --> 00:45:03,360
Speaker 1: The NFL playoffs.

925
00:45:03,800 --> 00:45:09,520
Speaker 3: When you look at anything four or greater for road favorite,

926
00:45:09,560 --> 00:45:11,680
Speaker 3: so minus four or greater.

927
00:45:12,560 --> 00:45:13,320
Speaker 1: They are.

928
00:45:15,440 --> 00:45:21,440
Speaker 3: Five, five, eleven, and one against the spread in those spots.

929
00:45:21,440 --> 00:45:24,719
Speaker 3: And if you just look at the eighty four postseason

930
00:45:24,760 --> 00:45:29,040
Speaker 3: games in NFL history when the road team is favored,

931
00:45:31,239 --> 00:45:37,120
Speaker 3: eighteen of them, so that is, you know, under twenty

932
00:45:37,160 --> 00:45:40,200
Speaker 3: five under a quarter of them have ended with that

933
00:45:41,120 --> 00:45:47,520
Speaker 3: road team that's been favored winning by more than ten points.

934
00:45:47,760 --> 00:45:51,279
Speaker 3: So it's just really hard to do. I granted it's

935
00:45:51,440 --> 00:45:53,319
Speaker 3: you know, there's not a huge precedent for numbers this week,

936
00:45:53,320 --> 00:45:55,359
Speaker 3: but there's also a reason for that. You know, this

937
00:45:55,440 --> 00:45:58,680
Speaker 3: is still a competent NFL team in the Carolina Panthers

938
00:46:00,120 --> 00:46:03,359
Speaker 3: into the playoffs, and you know, it has been kind

939
00:46:03,360 --> 00:46:05,600
Speaker 3: of an interesting ride for the Rams. I mean, for

940
00:46:05,640 --> 00:46:07,880
Speaker 3: most of the year they look like just the runaway

941
00:46:07,880 --> 00:46:10,000
Speaker 3: super Bowl favorite, or maybe I should say run away,

942
00:46:10,000 --> 00:46:11,359
Speaker 3: but you know, they look like they were in prime

943
00:46:11,400 --> 00:46:15,000
Speaker 3: position to be the super Bowl favorite number one seed. Uh,

944
00:46:15,200 --> 00:46:17,319
Speaker 3: you know, kind of make the playoffs go through them,

945
00:46:17,440 --> 00:46:20,120
Speaker 3: the NFC playoffs go through them. And then you know,

946
00:46:20,160 --> 00:46:23,880
Speaker 3: they they they get they collapse against Seattle, they collapse

947
00:46:23,920 --> 00:46:27,080
Speaker 3: against well, not collapse, they come out flat against Atlanta,

948
00:46:27,520 --> 00:46:30,319
Speaker 3: and now you're going on the road against a team

949
00:46:30,360 --> 00:46:32,960
Speaker 3: that shouldn't even be in the playoffs, that just kind

950
00:46:32,960 --> 00:46:35,680
Speaker 3: of fell into the playoffs despite losing in a must

951
00:46:35,680 --> 00:46:39,200
Speaker 3: win game already. So I do think you know, a

952
00:46:39,239 --> 00:46:42,279
Speaker 3: veteran team like the Rams that has uh you know

953
00:46:42,360 --> 00:46:44,040
Speaker 3: that the thirty one of Super Bowl and it's kind

954
00:46:44,040 --> 00:46:47,480
Speaker 3: of thinking, it's been thinking bigger all year long. I

955
00:46:47,520 --> 00:46:49,840
Speaker 3: think this could be a little bit of a flat

956
00:46:49,840 --> 00:46:53,480
Speaker 3: spot for them. They have you know, we've seen just

957
00:46:54,320 --> 00:46:57,040
Speaker 3: the Rams on the road this year come out a

958
00:46:57,080 --> 00:46:59,959
Speaker 3: little shaky. I mean, you know, Stafford with the pick

959
00:47:00,480 --> 00:47:03,440
Speaker 3: against Carolina, they lost. They lost this they lost to

960
00:47:03,520 --> 00:47:05,680
Speaker 3: this team. You know, for anyone that thinks they can't

961
00:47:05,680 --> 00:47:08,400
Speaker 3: be done, they lost to this team. Uh, you know,

962
00:47:08,800 --> 00:47:12,040
Speaker 3: just over a month ago in Carolina, Uh because of

963
00:47:12,120 --> 00:47:16,080
Speaker 3: some turnovers. They went on the road to Atlanta as

964
00:47:16,120 --> 00:47:18,359
Speaker 3: a you know, more than a touchdown favorite, a game

965
00:47:18,400 --> 00:47:20,480
Speaker 3: that you know, maybe they would have some problem but

966
00:47:20,520 --> 00:47:24,680
Speaker 3: still expected to handle business, get down way big in

967
00:47:24,719 --> 00:47:26,680
Speaker 3: that game and end up not being able to pull

968
00:47:26,680 --> 00:47:29,719
Speaker 3: off the comeback. So this, this this Ram team could

969
00:47:29,719 --> 00:47:31,279
Speaker 3: come out of it. Could They could either come out

970
00:47:31,280 --> 00:47:36,000
Speaker 3: a little flat you know outdoors Stafford offense, or they

971
00:47:36,080 --> 00:47:37,480
Speaker 3: could come you know, they could come out of with

972
00:47:37,520 --> 00:47:39,359
Speaker 3: a tight because they haven't been you know, they kind

973
00:47:39,360 --> 00:47:42,279
Speaker 3: of let a lot get away here. But either way

974
00:47:42,360 --> 00:47:44,920
Speaker 3: I like my odds just with the with the history

975
00:47:44,920 --> 00:47:47,320
Speaker 3: of these kind of spots in the playoffs, and then

976
00:47:47,760 --> 00:47:49,880
Speaker 3: now you know, the one thing I will say that

977
00:47:50,040 --> 00:47:53,000
Speaker 3: Rams do have going for them that does worry me

978
00:47:53,040 --> 00:47:56,640
Speaker 3: for Carolina is which is why I would play the spread.

979
00:47:56,840 --> 00:47:58,839
Speaker 3: I don't know about the straight up money line here,

980
00:47:59,480 --> 00:48:02,239
Speaker 3: genuinely more success with the shorter money lines in terms

981
00:48:02,280 --> 00:48:04,960
Speaker 3: of actually winning out right. But Quinton Lake, if he's

982
00:48:04,960 --> 00:48:06,879
Speaker 3: back for the Rams, I think I do think that's big.

983
00:48:07,000 --> 00:48:09,880
Speaker 3: I think that'll help their run defense, which is you know,

984
00:48:10,120 --> 00:48:12,680
Speaker 3: always going to be the number one against the Panthers.

985
00:48:13,160 --> 00:48:14,480
Speaker 1: You know they're going to try to run the ball.

986
00:48:14,480 --> 00:48:17,560
Speaker 3: But that's another thing here, and I think you'll kind

987
00:48:17,560 --> 00:48:19,560
Speaker 3: of get to this in a moment stuff. But I

988
00:48:19,600 --> 00:48:21,560
Speaker 3: do think this can be This has the potential to

989
00:48:21,560 --> 00:48:23,040
Speaker 3: be a lower scoring game. I know they played at

990
00:48:23,080 --> 00:48:26,240
Speaker 3: the thirty one to twenty eight game in the last meeting,

991
00:48:26,400 --> 00:48:29,520
Speaker 3: but a lot of turnovers in that one. I think

992
00:48:29,560 --> 00:48:32,040
Speaker 3: the ram you know, they will try to be conservative here.

993
00:48:33,160 --> 00:48:35,600
Speaker 3: You know the Rams still you know this is now

994
00:48:36,120 --> 00:48:39,120
Speaker 3: a kicker who hasn't really kicked in the postseason before

995
00:48:40,160 --> 00:48:42,680
Speaker 3: in in Harrison Nevis. You know, going on the road

996
00:48:42,680 --> 00:48:45,759
Speaker 3: to a windy spot. Could could see a miss a

997
00:48:45,760 --> 00:48:48,680
Speaker 3: miss kick or two in this one. But also I

998
00:48:48,960 --> 00:48:50,600
Speaker 3: don't think the Rams want to really play with their

999
00:48:50,600 --> 00:48:54,120
Speaker 3: food here after some of these road collapses. So I

1000
00:48:54,120 --> 00:48:56,400
Speaker 3: think you could easily get to a spot where I

1001
00:48:56,440 --> 00:48:59,000
Speaker 3: could see like a twenty to ten Rams win and

1002
00:48:59,000 --> 00:49:01,359
Speaker 3: you still like eke out speak out the cover here

1003
00:49:02,120 --> 00:49:04,040
Speaker 3: and again this is just more about I think this

1004
00:49:04,160 --> 00:49:06,600
Speaker 3: number is too big. I know this is I know

1005
00:49:06,640 --> 00:49:09,080
Speaker 3: the Panthers are no good. I know they're you know,

1006
00:49:09,600 --> 00:49:12,520
Speaker 3: like not, they shouldn't be in the playoffs. That playing

1007
00:49:12,560 --> 00:49:15,680
Speaker 3: it simple, But I still don't make this number.

1008
00:49:16,080 --> 00:49:18,279
Speaker 1: You know what is it now?

1009
00:49:18,280 --> 00:49:21,319
Speaker 3: It's yeah, ten and a half. I still don't make this.

1010
00:49:21,360 --> 00:49:23,319
Speaker 3: I'd make this number just like a smidge inside of ten.

1011
00:49:23,360 --> 00:49:26,640
Speaker 3: You're still talking about an indoor kind of finesse football

1012
00:49:26,680 --> 00:49:30,279
Speaker 3: team going on the road in windy conditions, in a

1013
00:49:30,360 --> 00:49:33,000
Speaker 3: spot they turned it over, in a spot they've already lost,

1014
00:49:33,160 --> 00:49:36,840
Speaker 3: with a kicker who wasn't a postings experience, and a

1015
00:49:36,880 --> 00:49:38,560
Speaker 3: team that just hasn't been great on the road against

1016
00:49:38,560 --> 00:49:41,560
Speaker 3: the team that home underdogs. The Panthers five and two

1017
00:49:42,360 --> 00:49:44,319
Speaker 3: against the spread, so you know they've been. They've been

1018
00:49:44,320 --> 00:49:45,160
Speaker 3: doing it as underdogs.

1019
00:49:45,160 --> 00:49:45,480
Speaker 1: Oh yeah.

1020
00:49:45,480 --> 00:49:47,600
Speaker 3: I mean they've been underdogs I think fourteen times and

1021
00:49:47,640 --> 00:49:51,360
Speaker 3: covered nine of them. And at home they've been They've

1022
00:49:51,600 --> 00:49:52,840
Speaker 3: they've been good against the spread.

1023
00:49:52,920 --> 00:49:54,840
Speaker 1: So just think it's too many points.

1024
00:49:54,920 --> 00:49:58,440
Speaker 3: It's ugly, but expecting a lower scoring game, hard to

1025
00:49:58,440 --> 00:50:01,480
Speaker 3: cover these big numbers, expect, expect the Rams to be

1026
00:50:01,600 --> 00:50:05,960
Speaker 3: conservative and still don't know where the health of Adams is.

1027
00:50:06,520 --> 00:50:09,359
Speaker 2: You know, Yeah, that's my point with Adams. I so yeah,

1028
00:50:09,360 --> 00:50:10,520
Speaker 2: I guess I'll share my thoughts.

1029
00:50:11,080 --> 00:50:11,279
Speaker 5: Good.

1030
00:50:11,520 --> 00:50:11,920
Speaker 1: Yeah.

1031
00:50:11,960 --> 00:50:15,000
Speaker 2: With my final pick, and we're with my third pick

1032
00:50:15,040 --> 00:50:16,960
Speaker 2: and the final overall of the Wildcard weekend six pack,

1033
00:50:17,320 --> 00:50:20,000
Speaker 2: I'm going to this game. I'm going with the Rams

1034
00:50:20,000 --> 00:50:22,080
Speaker 2: Panthers under forty six and a half. Haven't logged this

1035
00:50:22,120 --> 00:50:23,680
Speaker 2: in the aveet, I haven't, Bettyet. I'm waiting to see the

1036
00:50:23,760 --> 00:50:28,160
Speaker 2: forty seven pops. But I look these two teams when

1037
00:50:28,160 --> 00:50:29,719
Speaker 2: they played around this year was thirty one twenty eight.

1038
00:50:30,080 --> 00:50:33,240
Speaker 2: I kind of almost throw out that game for some reasons.

1039
00:50:33,280 --> 00:50:36,080
Speaker 2: It started with a Rams kickoff return that led to

1040
00:50:36,080 --> 00:50:38,799
Speaker 2: a short field. That's very rare, by the way, because

1041
00:50:38,800 --> 00:50:40,920
Speaker 2: these are two of the best kickoff teams in the

1042
00:50:41,040 --> 00:50:43,680
Speaker 2: NFL as far as field position, which should help the

1043
00:50:43,840 --> 00:50:47,239
Speaker 2: under even if it's marginally. And then there was a

1044
00:50:47,280 --> 00:50:49,400
Speaker 2: pick six, and then the Panthers. This is how the

1045
00:50:49,400 --> 00:50:51,759
Speaker 2: Panthers scored their four touchdowns. Pick six thirty five yard

1046
00:50:51,800 --> 00:50:53,960
Speaker 2: touchdown on third and eight, thirty three yard touchdown on

1047
00:50:54,000 --> 00:50:57,000
Speaker 2: fourth down, forty two yard touchdown on fourth down. Not

1048
00:50:57,040 --> 00:51:00,680
Speaker 2: sustainable in my eyes. I there's a chance that they

1049
00:51:00,680 --> 00:51:03,960
Speaker 2: get blown out here. I could only take the Panthers

1050
00:51:04,000 --> 00:51:05,839
Speaker 2: at ten and a half, but I don't think I'm

1051
00:51:05,840 --> 00:51:07,960
Speaker 2: gonna get there. I mean, I look at the numbers

1052
00:51:08,000 --> 00:51:11,240
Speaker 2: from that game. The Panthers had a thirty seven percent

1053
00:51:11,360 --> 00:51:15,400
Speaker 2: rushing success rate. That's well below their average of forty

1054
00:51:15,440 --> 00:51:19,440
Speaker 2: one percent. They had a sub forty percent success rate overall.

1055
00:51:20,800 --> 00:51:23,360
Speaker 2: I mean, there's only a handful of teams the Browns, Raiders,

1056
00:51:23,360 --> 00:51:26,400
Speaker 2: and Titans that finished the season under forty percent. And

1057
00:51:26,400 --> 00:51:28,720
Speaker 2: then you mentioned Quentin Lake. He should be back. That'll

1058
00:51:28,760 --> 00:51:32,480
Speaker 2: help the Rams defense. And then you look at the

1059
00:51:32,560 --> 00:51:34,840
Speaker 2: Rams side and by the way, the Calander rushing attack

1060
00:51:34,960 --> 00:51:37,359
Speaker 2: is gone in the tank Weeks one through nine, Top

1061
00:51:37,400 --> 00:51:41,600
Speaker 2: ten EPA Top ten success rate since twenty seventh EPA

1062
00:51:41,880 --> 00:51:44,560
Speaker 2: twenty ninth success rate. I think their backs are worn down.

1063
00:51:44,800 --> 00:51:47,279
Speaker 2: The injuries up front along the offensive line have caught

1064
00:51:47,360 --> 00:51:49,600
Speaker 2: up to them, and they can't run the ball anymore.

1065
00:51:50,000 --> 00:51:51,839
Speaker 2: So what you're gonna You're gonna allo on Bryce Young

1066
00:51:51,960 --> 00:51:56,440
Speaker 2: throwing twenty fifth and drop back EPA. They usually cannot

1067
00:51:56,520 --> 00:51:59,520
Speaker 2: hit anything downfield. That game was just such an outler.

1068
00:52:00,960 --> 00:52:02,320
Speaker 2: And by the way, they're gonna see a lot of

1069
00:52:02,400 --> 00:52:05,839
Speaker 2: zone yet Young for his career twenty six touchdowns, ten

1070
00:52:05,840 --> 00:52:11,040
Speaker 2: interceptions against man, twelve touchdowns, eighteen interceptions against zone. So

1071
00:52:11,239 --> 00:52:14,759
Speaker 2: I think, like the ceiling for the Panthers here is

1072
00:52:15,880 --> 00:52:20,680
Speaker 2: I'm gonna say, like fourteen points. I mean, we'll call it.

1073
00:52:20,880 --> 00:52:25,840
Speaker 2: I'll give them seventeen is their ceiling without Flukes so

1074
00:52:25,960 --> 00:52:29,080
Speaker 2: Ken the Rams get into the thirties, you might say, well, yeah,

1075
00:52:29,120 --> 00:52:31,640
Speaker 2: that probably makes sense. The Panthers don't get any pressure.

1076
00:52:32,160 --> 00:52:34,400
Speaker 2: They're not a good defense. The Rams got into the forties.

1077
00:52:34,560 --> 00:52:37,360
Speaker 2: I mean gotten to the thirties nine times in seventeen games.

1078
00:52:37,440 --> 00:52:42,600
Speaker 2: But I will say this, the Rams they dominated. They

1079
00:52:42,600 --> 00:52:44,840
Speaker 2: did whatever they wanted in that game. Besides the turnovers

1080
00:52:45,080 --> 00:52:46,920
Speaker 2: they had, I mean it was insane. They had a

1081
00:52:47,320 --> 00:52:50,879
Speaker 2: sixty percent success rate, a seventy six percent rush success rate.

1082
00:52:51,640 --> 00:52:55,080
Speaker 2: But the Panthers had no linebackers. J C. Horn was

1083
00:52:55,120 --> 00:52:58,120
Speaker 2: out with the concussion, Morgue was out with UH he

1084
00:52:58,160 --> 00:53:01,160
Speaker 2: was suspended from the week before in the incident in

1085
00:53:01,200 --> 00:53:03,720
Speaker 2: San Francisco. So they were missing four or five starters

1086
00:53:03,719 --> 00:53:09,680
Speaker 2: on defense, and Stafford did make mistakes, and he has

1087
00:53:09,719 --> 00:53:13,120
Speaker 2: struggled historic against defense that disguised their coverage's post snap. Well,

1088
00:53:13,239 --> 00:53:16,000
Speaker 2: the Panthers do that at the highest rate in the league.

1089
00:53:16,400 --> 00:53:20,279
Speaker 2: And ever Ro, who we both love, there's something to this.

1090
00:53:20,760 --> 00:53:24,200
Speaker 2: Stafford has struggled now against him and Morris, his ex

1091
00:53:24,280 --> 00:53:28,240
Speaker 2: coordinators a lot of cover three in their disguised coverages.

1092
00:53:28,480 --> 00:53:33,000
Speaker 2: In four meetings against those two, his eleven interceptions, and

1093
00:53:33,160 --> 00:53:38,200
Speaker 2: this year ever Row against the Shanahan McVeigh Tree dominated.

1094
00:53:38,480 --> 00:53:41,880
Speaker 2: I mean, you saw Purdy throw three interceptions against Carolina,

1095
00:53:42,080 --> 00:53:46,439
Speaker 2: looked awful, looked so confused. You saw Jordan Love get

1096
00:53:46,520 --> 00:53:49,239
Speaker 2: upset at home by the Panthers, and then you saw

1097
00:53:49,320 --> 00:53:53,359
Speaker 2: Stafford throwing all those interceptions against the backup Panthers. So

1098
00:53:53,400 --> 00:53:57,120
Speaker 2: I think that there's something there. They're usually kno going

1099
00:53:57,120 --> 00:53:58,799
Speaker 2: to blitz at a high rate. You don't want to blitz.

1100
00:53:58,840 --> 00:54:01,600
Speaker 2: Stafford tried it a little. They tried it on twenty

1101
00:54:01,600 --> 00:54:03,320
Speaker 2: five percent of the snaps in the first meeting. Staffer

1102
00:54:03,400 --> 00:54:04,879
Speaker 2: went five to seven fo one hundred and ten yards

1103
00:54:04,880 --> 00:54:07,200
Speaker 2: in a touchdown. I think they're they're usually don't blitz

1104
00:54:07,200 --> 00:54:08,440
Speaker 2: a lot. I think this will be like a fifteen

1105
00:54:08,480 --> 00:54:11,640
Speaker 2: percent blitz right game, keep everything in front of you

1106
00:54:12,160 --> 00:54:16,160
Speaker 2: and this in your defense. This line closed at ten

1107
00:54:16,200 --> 00:54:18,720
Speaker 2: to the first meeting. The Panthers went outright. It was flukey,

1108
00:54:18,760 --> 00:54:21,000
Speaker 2: but they didn't have multiple starts on defense. The Rams

1109
00:54:21,080 --> 00:54:23,719
Speaker 2: also had Dotson who might not play. Their offensive line

1110
00:54:23,760 --> 00:54:25,560
Speaker 2: is not the same without it, and they had Adams

1111
00:54:25,560 --> 00:54:27,600
Speaker 2: with two touchdowns. We don't know how healthy he's gonna

1112
00:54:27,640 --> 00:54:28,160
Speaker 2: be either.

1113
00:54:28,200 --> 00:54:30,880
Speaker 1: Think he's probably practicing full. I'm tugging with yeah.

1114
00:54:31,640 --> 00:54:34,960
Speaker 2: Just some ross, some drop off in production, Like that's

1115
00:54:34,960 --> 00:54:36,600
Speaker 2: more of a question. Like the first meeting he had

1116
00:54:36,600 --> 00:54:40,640
Speaker 2: two touchdowns, he was one hundred percent healthy. Like he's

1117
00:54:40,640 --> 00:54:42,279
Speaker 2: gonna play here and I expect them to start, But

1118
00:54:42,320 --> 00:54:44,720
Speaker 2: there's a chance that he's not at one hundred percent.

1119
00:54:46,040 --> 00:54:49,160
Speaker 2: So again, like I mentioned before, outdoor totals above forty five,

1120
00:54:49,239 --> 00:54:51,120
Speaker 2: forty four in the wildcard, down thirty one and ten

1121
00:54:51,160 --> 00:54:56,439
Speaker 2: at the under. Since two thousand and three. So yeah,

1122
00:54:56,440 --> 00:55:03,040
Speaker 2: I'll call for a seven to seventeen Rams win to

1123
00:55:03,040 --> 00:55:05,880
Speaker 2: make you happy as well my number twenty seventeen.

1124
00:55:06,200 --> 00:55:08,279
Speaker 1: But it's fair. I was gonna say.

1125
00:55:08,320 --> 00:55:08,440
Speaker 2: So.

1126
00:55:08,480 --> 00:55:10,480
Speaker 3: The one thing about the Ram, the one thing that

1127
00:55:10,520 --> 00:55:13,200
Speaker 3: I will say for the Panthers since we are talking

1128
00:55:13,239 --> 00:55:15,279
Speaker 3: about you know, the total as well, is.

1129
00:55:16,800 --> 00:55:17,799
Speaker 1: Something that kind of.

1130
00:55:17,760 --> 00:55:20,560
Speaker 3: Got a little under the radar is, you know, we

1131
00:55:20,560 --> 00:55:21,600
Speaker 3: don't know if the Pants are going to be in

1132
00:55:21,600 --> 00:55:26,960
Speaker 3: the playoffs. Robert Hunt Guard very good player, full practice

1133
00:55:27,320 --> 00:55:33,200
Speaker 3: on Tuesday and in another interior lineman Chandler's La full

1134
00:55:33,239 --> 00:55:36,160
Speaker 3: practice on Tuesday. Both of those guys are on ir

1135
00:55:36,239 --> 00:55:40,879
Speaker 3: slated to return. Hunt would be massive for that run game.

1136
00:55:41,080 --> 00:55:44,520
Speaker 3: That doesn't necessarily that's it's not under Yeah, because I

1137
00:55:44,520 --> 00:55:45,920
Speaker 3: was about to say they.

1138
00:55:45,719 --> 00:55:48,279
Speaker 2: Had some drives in the first game where they went

1139
00:55:48,400 --> 00:55:52,920
Speaker 2: like thirty yards over like seven minutes. I think there

1140
00:55:52,960 --> 00:55:55,959
Speaker 2: was one drive. So the Panthers are very the Rams

1141
00:55:55,960 --> 00:55:59,719
Speaker 2: are fast, but the Panthers are very slow, and they're

1142
00:55:59,760 --> 00:56:01,200
Speaker 2: gonna try to shorten this game.

1143
00:56:01,480 --> 00:56:05,600
Speaker 3: Yes, eat the clock. Yeah, Hunt would be massive for that.

1144
00:56:05,680 --> 00:56:07,440
Speaker 3: And it's also worth pointing out, you know, with the

1145
00:56:07,480 --> 00:56:13,080
Speaker 3: special teams, uh, the Rams, you know they had that.

1146
00:56:13,160 --> 00:56:16,600
Speaker 3: They loved Cardi for, you know, his ability to kind

1147
00:56:16,600 --> 00:56:18,800
Speaker 3: of do that the kickoffs.

1148
00:56:18,320 --> 00:56:20,480
Speaker 1: And now now it's going to be uh, you know,

1149
00:56:20,520 --> 00:56:21,000
Speaker 1: now it's.

1150
00:56:20,920 --> 00:56:23,600
Speaker 3: Nevis and you know, again a guy who just doesn't

1151
00:56:23,600 --> 00:56:26,120
Speaker 3: have the same experience. So I do think that kind

1152
00:56:26,160 --> 00:56:28,799
Speaker 3: of kind of sit in the Panther's favorite So yeah,

1153
00:56:29,160 --> 00:56:31,720
Speaker 3: there are little subtle things like even from that first

1154
00:56:31,719 --> 00:56:34,360
Speaker 3: matchup that tilt back Carolina, which is what because I

1155
00:56:35,080 --> 00:56:36,640
Speaker 3: am thinking about playing the under two, I agree.

1156
00:56:36,760 --> 00:56:38,960
Speaker 1: I think that's the road for the Panthers. I just

1157
00:56:38,960 --> 00:56:40,160
Speaker 1: think that's the way the game is gonna get.

1158
00:56:40,200 --> 00:56:42,560
Speaker 2: I think they're correlated. Like, yeah, the answers this time

1159
00:56:42,560 --> 00:56:44,840
Speaker 2: around are not going to win the game in the

1160
00:56:44,880 --> 00:56:46,320
Speaker 2: thirties exactly.

1161
00:56:46,440 --> 00:56:48,600
Speaker 1: So yeah, now I like the under U.

1162
00:56:48,719 --> 00:56:50,080
Speaker 2: I have to find a way to win this game.

1163
00:56:50,160 --> 00:56:51,160
Speaker 2: Twenty to seventeen.

1164
00:56:52,560 --> 00:56:53,640
Speaker 1: Yeah, they win.

1165
00:56:54,600 --> 00:56:59,319
Speaker 2: I mean the rams, they got to turnover Stafford, confuse him,

1166
00:56:59,360 --> 00:57:02,440
Speaker 2: don't let them disguise the coverage as well, force them

1167
00:57:02,440 --> 00:57:09,239
Speaker 2: into mistakes, hold them the field goals and uh yeah,

1168
00:57:09,239 --> 00:57:11,200
Speaker 2: but that that was a very fluky result the first

1169
00:57:11,200 --> 00:57:13,160
Speaker 2: time around. They cannot really they're not going to score

1170
00:57:13,200 --> 00:57:14,440
Speaker 2: thirty one points again.

1171
00:57:14,440 --> 00:57:14,959
Speaker 1: No, and there.

1172
00:57:15,040 --> 00:57:17,560
Speaker 3: This is a team that so there's only six teams

1173
00:57:17,600 --> 00:57:24,040
Speaker 3: this year that UH connected with connected on field goals

1174
00:57:24,320 --> 00:57:28,360
Speaker 3: under a a eighty percent equipment. The Rams are one

1175
00:57:28,400 --> 00:57:33,000
Speaker 3: of the interesting. A lot of indoor teams, Yans, Rams, UH, Saints,

1176
00:57:33,320 --> 00:57:35,840
Speaker 3: Cardinals all on that list. But yeah, I'm just not

1177
00:57:35,880 --> 00:57:38,080
Speaker 3: convinced that they're like you know, we've seen his time

1178
00:57:38,080 --> 00:57:43,000
Speaker 3: and time again, like when you these these special that's

1179
00:57:43,120 --> 00:57:43,440
Speaker 3: they're not.

1180
00:57:44,160 --> 00:57:44,840
Speaker 1: Yeah, they're not.

1181
00:57:44,880 --> 00:57:47,080
Speaker 3: But I just these veteran coaches, you know, they put

1182
00:57:47,080 --> 00:57:50,440
Speaker 3: this these trust in these these these unproven kickers, and

1183
00:57:50,480 --> 00:57:52,520
Speaker 3: I just I like what I've seen so far.

1184
00:57:52,560 --> 00:57:53,880
Speaker 1: But it's just a different beast.

1185
00:57:53,920 --> 00:57:55,640
Speaker 3: So yeah, I think there are ways for the Panthers

1186
00:57:55,640 --> 00:57:57,160
Speaker 3: to got to keep this close prictory. I think it's

1187
00:57:57,160 --> 00:57:58,480
Speaker 3: going to be I think it's going to be a

1188
00:57:58,480 --> 00:58:00,480
Speaker 3: game that the Panthers are going to try to you know,

1189
00:58:00,560 --> 00:58:02,880
Speaker 3: the announcers are going to say something cliche and listen,

1190
00:58:02,880 --> 00:58:04,240
Speaker 3: I mean, if is it Olsen for this game?

1191
00:58:04,240 --> 00:58:08,600
Speaker 1: Who are getting for this? Is it gonna be Greg Olsen? Greg? Yeah,

1192
00:58:08,640 --> 00:58:10,360
Speaker 1: if it's Greg Olsen, we won't get anything cliche.

1193
00:58:10,440 --> 00:58:12,439
Speaker 3: But yeah, you're probably here like oh, if you could

1194
00:58:12,440 --> 00:58:14,360
Speaker 3: just give yourself a chance to be down by like

1195
00:58:14,760 --> 00:58:16,960
Speaker 3: ten points and then in the fourth quarter, I think

1196
00:58:16,960 --> 00:58:18,440
Speaker 3: you'll be you know what I mean, happy with it

1197
00:58:18,560 --> 00:58:20,880
Speaker 3: something like that. So I do think the Panthers are

1198
00:58:20,880 --> 00:58:23,160
Speaker 3: gonna have to kind of uh.

1199
00:58:23,320 --> 00:58:24,280
Speaker 1: Have to play like that.

1200
00:58:24,440 --> 00:58:27,080
Speaker 2: And yeah, Olsen gets it. Oh shout out Craig. He

1201
00:58:27,120 --> 00:58:29,240
Speaker 2: gets he was excited to go to the Panthers game

1202
00:58:29,280 --> 00:58:31,640
Speaker 2: with his kid when he had the week off or

1203
00:58:31,720 --> 00:58:33,040
Speaker 2: when he did the game early in the week. He

1204
00:58:33,080 --> 00:58:36,080
Speaker 2: went to the Panthers game, I think two weeks ago,

1205
00:58:36,680 --> 00:58:39,520
Speaker 2: I think over Christmas, so we'll get to go there now.

1206
00:58:39,800 --> 00:58:43,040
Speaker 2: But Olsen by far, by far, the best announcer in

1207
00:58:43,040 --> 00:58:43,560
Speaker 2: the NFL.

1208
00:58:43,720 --> 00:58:46,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, I would say that Brady's gotten better, Like from

1209
00:58:46,720 --> 00:58:48,680
Speaker 3: from year one to year two, Brady has gotten a lot,

1210
00:58:48,720 --> 00:58:49,720
Speaker 3: but he's gotten more comfortable.

1211
00:58:49,800 --> 00:58:52,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, I love No, I'm just saying, like from talking

1212
00:58:52,800 --> 00:58:56,480
Speaker 2: about from an analyst perspective and the fourth field goals

1213
00:58:56,480 --> 00:58:59,880
Speaker 2: and Situationally, he's always saying the things that I'm about

1214
00:58:59,880 --> 00:59:02,520
Speaker 2: to tweet like every like, I'm like, he just said it,

1215
00:59:02,560 --> 00:59:04,200
Speaker 2: so I don't have to tweet this because everyone would

1216
00:59:04,200 --> 00:59:07,840
Speaker 2: have heard it. So he's I love listening then, But yeah,

1217
00:59:07,840 --> 00:59:09,480
Speaker 2: I'll be on the call for the Panthers game. So

1218
00:59:09,520 --> 00:59:12,320
Speaker 2: it looks like I got Herbert in the playoffs. We

1219
00:59:12,320 --> 00:59:15,800
Speaker 2: don't have bad quarterbacks, Herbert Love and I'm fading Bryce

1220
00:59:15,840 --> 00:59:23,080
Speaker 2: Young with the under and you have Bryce Young, Bryce Young.

1221
00:59:23,360 --> 00:59:27,280
Speaker 2: You found the one bad quarterback, Bryce Young.

1222
00:59:27,520 --> 00:59:28,480
Speaker 1: Well, no, no, jam.

1223
00:59:28,480 --> 00:59:33,800
Speaker 3: Hurts uh and Trev and Trev.

1224
00:59:33,840 --> 00:59:34,840
Speaker 1: I got all the worst Crows.

1225
00:59:35,720 --> 00:59:36,920
Speaker 2: You did still find a way.

1226
00:59:36,880 --> 00:59:39,840
Speaker 3: Yeah yeah yeah, and we know party outdoors when he's

1227
00:59:40,280 --> 00:59:41,120
Speaker 3: against like a good.

1228
00:59:41,720 --> 00:59:42,720
Speaker 2: Might be banged up too.

1229
00:59:43,640 --> 00:59:46,240
Speaker 1: Yeah yeah, I was thinking about that, but I mean

1230
00:59:46,240 --> 00:59:47,919
Speaker 1: it's the Niners. Everyone's bangedo. I guess.

1231
00:59:48,040 --> 00:59:52,240
Speaker 3: So okay, that's gonna do it for Ash wild Card

1232
00:59:52,240 --> 00:59:53,480
Speaker 3: weekend six pack.

1233
00:59:54,720 --> 00:59:57,560
Speaker 1: All right, now it's time for a money line Underdoug.

1234
00:59:57,280 --> 01:00:04,120
Speaker 3: Harley turning good weekends into great weekends.

1235
01:00:04,640 --> 01:00:08,280
Speaker 1: It's time for the money line parlay. Are stuck?

1236
01:00:08,400 --> 01:00:12,120
Speaker 3: I mean sixteen and two speak sports so posed out

1237
01:00:12,200 --> 01:00:16,600
Speaker 3: the regular season with the Raiders with that egregious line,

1238
01:00:17,040 --> 01:00:18,880
Speaker 3: and you know, still all work out for them.

1239
01:00:19,000 --> 01:00:19,880
Speaker 1: Got the number one pick.

1240
01:00:20,080 --> 01:00:22,840
Speaker 2: No touchdowns. The whole division didn't score a touchdown last week,

1241
01:00:22,840 --> 01:00:26,560
Speaker 2: first time in over thirty five years. Oh wow, the

1242
01:00:26,560 --> 01:00:28,880
Speaker 2: whole division when they're all teams are playing. Didn't score

1243
01:00:28,880 --> 01:00:29,880
Speaker 2: a touchdown.

1244
01:00:30,560 --> 01:00:32,640
Speaker 1: But Ross were playing for real though.

1245
01:00:33,080 --> 01:00:39,080
Speaker 2: I know so this I think this the moneyline dog

1246
01:00:39,160 --> 01:00:43,640
Speaker 2: is obvious this week. It's the Steelers. Low total thirty

1247
01:00:43,720 --> 01:00:45,919
Speaker 2: nine points are gonna come at a premium. They're gonna

1248
01:00:45,920 --> 01:00:49,480
Speaker 2: blitz a lot strout of struggle against the blitz. Rogers

1249
01:00:49,560 --> 01:00:52,920
Speaker 2: struggled against pressure. Texans are gonna get pressure. Should be

1250
01:00:52,960 --> 01:00:54,200
Speaker 2: a low scoring game, but you know you can get

1251
01:00:54,200 --> 01:00:56,200
Speaker 2: the ball out quick. Here. I just put together a

1252
01:00:56,240 --> 01:00:58,880
Speaker 2: couple of drives and then the voodoo at home. Uh.

1253
01:00:58,920 --> 01:01:05,240
Speaker 2: This is also a dome team going outdoors in freezing weather.

1254
01:01:05,440 --> 01:01:08,200
Speaker 2: I think teams in that situation are one in fourteen

1255
01:01:08,240 --> 01:01:13,520
Speaker 2: straight up in their last fifteen playoff games. So yeah,

1256
01:01:15,240 --> 01:01:18,480
Speaker 2: this is just a classic Steelers spot. Maybe they can

1257
01:01:18,480 --> 01:01:20,600
Speaker 2: finally get a playoff win. The low scoring game probably

1258
01:01:20,600 --> 01:01:23,880
Speaker 2: come down to like a fluky player or two. Well, see,

1259
01:01:24,040 --> 01:01:25,360
Speaker 2: I believe last will be back.

1260
01:01:25,920 --> 01:01:27,840
Speaker 1: Yeah. I think that they just.

1261
01:01:27,880 --> 01:01:31,080
Speaker 2: Rested him as precautioning, but that if he's not, I

1262
01:01:31,120 --> 01:01:33,800
Speaker 2: would love love the Steelers did the drop off for

1263
01:01:34,000 --> 01:01:34,680
Speaker 2: Treymont Smith.

1264
01:01:34,760 --> 01:01:40,200
Speaker 1: Is that that's the same Cramont Smith?

1265
01:01:40,280 --> 01:01:45,160
Speaker 2: Right, Yeah, he was horrendous last week. So yeah, they

1266
01:01:45,160 --> 01:01:48,040
Speaker 2: don't have great depth at corner. But Petrio I think

1267
01:01:48,040 --> 01:01:51,000
Speaker 2: could be big here though, Like he's going to be

1268
01:01:51,000 --> 01:01:52,960
Speaker 2: the key to the I think the Texans defensive game

1269
01:01:53,000 --> 01:01:55,200
Speaker 2: plan with the way that I think the Steelers is

1270
01:01:55,200 --> 01:01:56,400
Speaker 2: going to want to play because you can basically have

1271
01:01:56,400 --> 01:01:59,360
Speaker 2: Stingley takeout Metcalf. But this one, I think this is

1272
01:01:59,400 --> 01:02:02,320
Speaker 2: the lowestcoring game, coming down to random play here or there,

1273
01:02:03,720 --> 01:02:06,520
Speaker 2: and that's where the Steelers thrive. So yeah, give me

1274
01:02:06,560 --> 01:02:07,720
Speaker 2: Pittsburgh on the money line.

1275
01:02:09,120 --> 01:02:11,600
Speaker 3: Uh yeah, I would have gotten there if you hadn't.

1276
01:02:12,680 --> 01:02:16,160
Speaker 3: Just so love to point out, you know, with Stroud,

1277
01:02:16,400 --> 01:02:18,720
Speaker 3: you know, on pay for some of the certain schemes

1278
01:02:18,720 --> 01:02:21,240
Speaker 3: that Pittsburgh runs, you could say, okay, well it does

1279
01:02:21,680 --> 01:02:24,960
Speaker 3: favor the Texans, but number one, Pittsburgh has been multiple

1280
01:02:25,000 --> 01:02:27,560
Speaker 3: this year. They've kind of adjusted as the years progressed.

1281
01:02:27,600 --> 01:02:29,160
Speaker 3: Sometimes work, sometimes it hasn't.

1282
01:02:29,160 --> 01:02:38,480
Speaker 1: But c J. Stroud outdoors in his career, so indoors.

1283
01:02:38,040 --> 01:02:41,160
Speaker 3: He is twenty one and ten whatever quarterback wa it's

1284
01:02:41,200 --> 01:02:44,480
Speaker 3: not a real stat, but we're pointing out outdoors losing

1285
01:02:44,520 --> 01:02:48,840
Speaker 3: record at seven and eight. Completion percentage goes from sixty

1286
01:02:48,880 --> 01:02:52,320
Speaker 3: six to fifty nine percent, So outdoors he's fifty, he's

1287
01:02:52,400 --> 01:02:56,560
Speaker 3: under sixty percent completion. His passer rating goes from one

1288
01:02:56,560 --> 01:03:01,200
Speaker 3: oh one to eighty four. His yard per attempt royyards

1289
01:03:01,200 --> 01:03:05,880
Speaker 3: per attempt goes from over eight indoors same thing at home,

1290
01:03:06,000 --> 01:03:11,640
Speaker 3: over eight outdoors on the road under seven six outdoors

1291
01:03:11,640 --> 01:03:15,160
Speaker 3: specifically six point four to two yards per TENPT, and

1292
01:03:15,200 --> 01:03:19,840
Speaker 3: fifteen career outdoor games, he's averaging under two hundred yards

1293
01:03:19,880 --> 01:03:23,320
Speaker 3: passing per game outdoors in his career one ninety nine

1294
01:03:23,360 --> 01:03:25,280
Speaker 3: point six. This is a guy who had, you know,

1295
01:03:25,360 --> 01:03:27,120
Speaker 3: especially his rookie you just had a bunch of three

1296
01:03:27,200 --> 01:03:30,920
Speaker 3: hundred yard games. So his play really does drop off.

1297
01:03:32,320 --> 01:03:35,400
Speaker 3: It may maybe it is to goffee and levels outdoors.

1298
01:03:35,440 --> 01:03:36,960
Speaker 3: You just we don't have the samples haze to know

1299
01:03:37,000 --> 01:03:39,320
Speaker 3: that yet. But I think that's a big concern for

1300
01:03:39,360 --> 01:03:41,840
Speaker 3: the Texans that they can go just as cold here.

1301
01:03:42,040 --> 01:03:45,480
Speaker 3: We don't you know, the Steelers an old quarterback, you know,

1302
01:03:45,680 --> 01:03:48,480
Speaker 3: shaky offense. The Texans can go Justice Cod and be

1303
01:03:48,560 --> 01:03:49,320
Speaker 3: just as inefficient.

1304
01:03:49,600 --> 01:03:49,920
Speaker 1: Marks.

1305
01:03:49,920 --> 01:03:51,720
Speaker 3: For as much as we love him, that run game

1306
01:03:51,800 --> 01:03:53,640
Speaker 3: still usually is an inefficient one.

1307
01:03:53,720 --> 01:03:55,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's not an efficient running game. And that's how

1308
01:03:55,480 --> 01:03:57,760
Speaker 2: you want to attack the Steelers run defense has not

1309
01:03:57,800 --> 01:04:01,200
Speaker 2: been good, and there's a chance that this offensive line

1310
01:04:01,200 --> 01:04:03,360
Speaker 2: for the Texans just get over. You have Walt back

1311
01:04:04,360 --> 01:04:07,920
Speaker 2: high Smith back like they're healthier now al On, there's

1312
01:04:07,920 --> 01:04:10,480
Speaker 2: a chance that this Texans offensive line gets overwhelmed, not

1313
01:04:10,600 --> 01:04:12,200
Speaker 2: just by the pass rush becuse they're gonna be known

1314
01:04:12,240 --> 01:04:16,600
Speaker 2: passing downs which could lead to multiple mistakes, but also

1315
01:04:16,680 --> 01:04:20,520
Speaker 2: the crowd. And I could see multiple pre snap penalties,

1316
01:04:20,920 --> 01:04:24,600
Speaker 2: which have plagued the Texans at times this year, putting

1317
01:04:24,640 --> 01:04:29,320
Speaker 2: them even more behind the sticks. So yeah, give me

1318
01:04:29,360 --> 01:04:31,040
Speaker 2: the Steelers where you're going. I only have no idea

1319
01:04:31,040 --> 01:04:31,480
Speaker 2: where you're going.

1320
01:04:31,520 --> 01:04:35,520
Speaker 1: I'm curious Jacksonville Jaguars. Should I talk about them for

1321
01:04:35,520 --> 01:04:37,640
Speaker 1: another eighteen minutes? That's it? All right?

1322
01:04:39,800 --> 01:04:44,280
Speaker 3: So we got a plus three fifty four money line

1323
01:04:44,480 --> 01:04:48,760
Speaker 3: dog piway this week. But yeah, total Greek Steelers that

1324
01:04:48,800 --> 01:04:50,960
Speaker 3: would be in my pick. Loved the Jags as well.

1325
01:04:52,040 --> 01:04:54,440
Speaker 3: Who's the other who's the other home dog? It's the

1326
01:04:54,480 --> 01:04:58,200
Speaker 3: Bears now. You know again, I like the package a

1327
01:04:58,200 --> 01:05:01,919
Speaker 3: lot more when they were underdogs on the road. You're

1328
01:05:01,960 --> 01:05:04,480
Speaker 3: not their favorite. I do think that game can go

1329
01:05:04,560 --> 01:05:06,000
Speaker 3: either way. And then and we got the Panthers, who

1330
01:05:06,000 --> 01:05:09,400
Speaker 3: I think are about to cover the spread. The necessarily

1331
01:05:09,960 --> 01:05:12,160
Speaker 3: charge for me to see the Panthers winning, Yeah.

1332
01:05:11,920 --> 01:05:12,680
Speaker 1: Exactly exactly.

1333
01:05:12,680 --> 01:05:14,720
Speaker 3: I think they could stay in the game, but I mean,

1334
01:05:15,200 --> 01:05:17,800
Speaker 3: yeah they it would be nupkiel battle.

1335
01:05:17,800 --> 01:05:18,120
Speaker 1: All right.

1336
01:05:18,440 --> 01:05:22,720
Speaker 3: Now it's time for our favorite A time touchdown scores

1337
01:05:22,760 --> 01:05:27,440
Speaker 3: presented by DraftKings. Let's do our anytime touchdown parlay for

1338
01:05:27,960 --> 01:05:31,240
Speaker 3: the wild Card weekend.

1339
01:05:31,640 --> 01:05:35,400
Speaker 1: And uh, you hit with Tommy Trumble last week, So

1340
01:05:35,720 --> 01:05:38,040
Speaker 1: I love that for you. That was that.

1341
01:05:38,320 --> 01:05:41,919
Speaker 3: I mean that, that's just a great hit. Can't believe

1342
01:05:41,960 --> 01:05:44,640
Speaker 3: I couldn't bring us home with Derreck Henry of Voll

1343
01:05:44,760 --> 01:05:45,360
Speaker 3: second time.

1344
01:05:45,200 --> 01:05:47,040
Speaker 2: And then Warren got hurt the other time, and we

1345
01:05:47,080 --> 01:05:50,440
Speaker 2: just need oh h. But this week I'm gonna go

1346
01:05:50,440 --> 01:05:56,640
Speaker 2: with Trevor Lawrence plus one eighty h to score a touchdown.

1347
01:05:57,440 --> 01:05:59,680
Speaker 2: He's running a lot more in the second half. The

1348
01:05:59,680 --> 01:06:03,959
Speaker 2: areas seven rushing touchdowns in his past ten games. And

1349
01:06:05,880 --> 01:06:08,360
Speaker 2: you can get them there via sneak. You can get

1350
01:06:08,360 --> 01:06:11,560
Speaker 2: them there via scramble. And the Bills. They haven't played

1351
01:06:11,560 --> 01:06:15,120
Speaker 2: many mobile quarterbacks this year, but when they have, I

1352
01:06:15,120 --> 01:06:18,600
Speaker 2: think they faced six who I would consider running quarterbacks.

1353
01:06:19,760 --> 01:06:22,280
Speaker 2: They've I mean Drake May had two rushing touchdowns against them,

1354
01:06:22,400 --> 01:06:25,720
Speaker 2: but they allowed eight yards for rush attempts and in

1355
01:06:25,800 --> 01:06:28,760
Speaker 2: those six games, four rushing touchdowns. So I think that

1356
01:06:28,800 --> 01:06:32,840
Speaker 2: there's gonna be some opportunities for Lawrence and what could

1357
01:06:32,840 --> 01:06:35,080
Speaker 2: be I mean, this is a high total, very high

1358
01:06:35,120 --> 01:06:37,200
Speaker 2: total for a playoff game, in a game where they're

1359
01:06:37,840 --> 01:06:40,440
Speaker 2: the game that we could have the most or should

1360
01:06:40,760 --> 01:06:45,320
Speaker 2: theoretically have the most points scored. So yeah, I'm gonna

1361
01:06:45,320 --> 01:06:48,280
Speaker 2: take Lawrence to find the end zone. Could get there

1362
01:06:48,320 --> 01:06:50,840
Speaker 2: in like a boot or a sneak at the goal line,

1363
01:06:51,000 --> 01:06:56,800
Speaker 2: or just scrambling against the slower second level Bills defense

1364
01:06:57,160 --> 01:06:58,840
Speaker 2: if no one's open initially.

1365
01:06:58,840 --> 01:07:01,280
Speaker 1: Yeah, no, I get. I'm actually gonna go, even though

1366
01:07:01,280 --> 01:07:02,200
Speaker 1: I do like to Jags.

1367
01:07:02,600 --> 01:07:04,560
Speaker 3: Uh, As you mentioned a lot of points expected in

1368
01:07:04,560 --> 01:07:07,240
Speaker 3: this game, So I'm gonna go with uh a Buffalo

1369
01:07:07,360 --> 01:07:10,880
Speaker 3: Bill and that is Dalton Kincaid at plus A way

1370
01:07:10,920 --> 01:07:14,880
Speaker 3: to talk about this game again, Yes, so uh, but

1371
01:07:15,040 --> 01:07:17,680
Speaker 3: so a kid k though. I think they're gonna need

1372
01:07:17,760 --> 01:07:19,280
Speaker 3: him in this game, and I think they know that,

1373
01:07:19,320 --> 01:07:21,520
Speaker 3: and I think that's why you saw him get some

1374
01:07:21,600 --> 01:07:24,480
Speaker 3: match and even when Dawson Knots had incentives to hit

1375
01:07:24,520 --> 01:07:26,560
Speaker 3: which I think they got him the touchdown he played

1376
01:07:26,560 --> 01:07:30,720
Speaker 3: one played like two snaps. But yeah, we saw kid

1377
01:07:30,800 --> 01:07:33,280
Speaker 3: get like a quarter and that usually when when you

1378
01:07:33,320 --> 01:07:35,720
Speaker 3: see that in the playoffs with a tight end, uh,

1379
01:07:35,800 --> 01:07:38,840
Speaker 3: that means they're gonna they think they're gonna need him. Uh,

1380
01:07:39,040 --> 01:07:41,520
Speaker 3: you know, in in those in that upcoming posted, we

1381
01:07:41,520 --> 01:07:43,560
Speaker 3: saw that a couple of years ago. I believe it

1382
01:07:43,600 --> 01:07:46,479
Speaker 3: was Dallas Goddard was coming off an injury and played

1383
01:07:46,520 --> 01:07:48,560
Speaker 3: in like Week eighteen. They got him like seven or

1384
01:07:48,600 --> 01:07:50,720
Speaker 3: eight catches in like a quarter, uh, and then he

1385
01:07:50,760 --> 01:07:52,280
Speaker 3: was big during their postseason run.

1386
01:07:52,320 --> 01:07:55,720
Speaker 1: And then we saw last year with the Rams with Hagebee.

1387
01:07:55,360 --> 01:07:57,240
Speaker 3: When you know, you would think, all right, guys been

1388
01:07:57,280 --> 01:07:59,400
Speaker 3: hurt all year, keep him out heat they played him

1389
01:07:59,400 --> 01:08:01,560
Speaker 3: and in the last week of the season, and then

1390
01:08:01,720 --> 01:08:05,200
Speaker 3: I mean he just came out scorching in the playoffs.

1391
01:08:06,240 --> 01:08:08,200
Speaker 3: I think he got hurt and like still had like

1392
01:08:08,240 --> 01:08:12,000
Speaker 3: five or six catches in that first game and didn't

1393
01:08:12,000 --> 01:08:14,560
Speaker 3: get a touchdown until the second one. But like, I

1394
01:08:14,560 --> 01:08:17,160
Speaker 3: think Kacaid is going to be a major factor here

1395
01:08:17,200 --> 01:08:19,760
Speaker 3: because I don't think the Bills trust the receivers and

1396
01:08:19,880 --> 01:08:24,280
Speaker 3: you look at Jacksonville and only eleven touchdowns about all

1397
01:08:24,320 --> 01:08:27,360
Speaker 3: year to running backs, only eight on the ground. That's

1398
01:08:27,400 --> 01:08:30,559
Speaker 3: big because James Cook just steals so many touchdowns, not

1399
01:08:30,680 --> 01:08:33,880
Speaker 3: I say steals like James Cook scores so many touchdowns

1400
01:08:33,960 --> 01:08:35,880
Speaker 3: that see it's like he's stealing from the rest of

1401
01:08:35,920 --> 01:08:39,400
Speaker 3: the offense because they're they're so explosive that other guys,

1402
01:08:39,400 --> 01:08:41,439
Speaker 3: you know, it's not you don't get like a chance

1403
01:08:41,479 --> 01:08:43,120
Speaker 3: to drive down the field and kind of spread it

1404
01:08:43,160 --> 01:08:46,360
Speaker 3: out to different guys as much as some other teams.

1405
01:08:46,400 --> 01:08:48,479
Speaker 3: So in this spot, the Jacks, they don't give up

1406
01:08:48,520 --> 01:08:50,800
Speaker 3: a ton of explosives. They don't give up as much

1407
01:08:50,800 --> 01:08:52,639
Speaker 3: in the run game as almost anyone in the league.

1408
01:08:53,040 --> 01:08:54,880
Speaker 3: So it could be harder for Josh, it could be

1409
01:08:54,920 --> 01:08:57,080
Speaker 3: harder for Cook to score on the ground, and the

1410
01:08:57,120 --> 01:08:59,760
Speaker 3: Bills could be playing from behind. So I think that's

1411
01:08:59,760 --> 01:09:03,639
Speaker 3: set up well for Kinkaid, who's a little underpricious because

1412
01:09:03,680 --> 01:09:06,120
Speaker 3: he's been banged up in and out of games. They

1413
01:09:06,240 --> 01:09:08,360
Speaker 3: they're very conservative, they hold the whole guys out when

1414
01:09:08,360 --> 01:09:10,479
Speaker 3: they're a little banged up. So he's, uh, you know,

1415
01:09:10,479 --> 01:09:12,200
Speaker 3: he's kind of a little under the radar here, but

1416
01:09:12,720 --> 01:09:14,200
Speaker 3: expecting him to be a major factor.

1417
01:09:14,240 --> 01:09:17,000
Speaker 1: So give me Kik at plus to sixty parlay.

1418
01:09:17,160 --> 01:09:19,080
Speaker 2: It'll get them matched up up the scene against wing

1419
01:09:19,120 --> 01:09:20,040
Speaker 2: Dewey wing guard and.

1420
01:09:20,080 --> 01:09:21,280
Speaker 1: Yeah he touchdown. Yeah.

1421
01:09:21,520 --> 01:09:24,840
Speaker 3: Eight touchdowns allowed by the Jags too. Tight Ends eight touched.

1422
01:09:24,880 --> 01:09:28,480
Speaker 3: Eight rushing touchdowns to running backs all year, eight receiving

1423
01:09:29,000 --> 01:09:32,040
Speaker 3: to tight End. So there's a bit of an imbounds

1424
01:09:32,120 --> 01:09:34,160
Speaker 3: there where you can and that that makes sense because

1425
01:09:34,240 --> 01:09:37,759
Speaker 3: Jack's play a lot his own, so you parlay goes together.

1426
01:09:37,800 --> 01:09:41,200
Speaker 3: That's the same game parway on DraftKings. You get nine

1427
01:09:41,400 --> 01:09:46,040
Speaker 3: to one odds Trevor Lawrence, Dalton Kinkaid. And this works

1428
01:09:46,080 --> 01:09:47,920
Speaker 3: like it still works at any game script because you

1429
01:09:47,920 --> 01:09:50,600
Speaker 3: know tight ends good positive or negative game script. A

1430
01:09:50,600 --> 01:09:52,160
Speaker 3: guy that kink will be out there on third downs

1431
01:09:52,160 --> 01:09:54,479
Speaker 3: and the warrants as you mentioned, uh, he can do

1432
01:09:54,560 --> 01:09:57,000
Speaker 3: it in a number of ways. So that's our anytime

1433
01:09:57,160 --> 01:09:59,960
Speaker 3: touchdown paraway for the wild card weekend, going to the

1434
01:10:00,080 --> 01:10:03,960
Speaker 3: expected high scoring game Jags, Bill's Trevor Lawrence, don ky

1435
01:10:04,040 --> 01:10:09,040
Speaker 3: Kid nine to one anytime touchdown scorers.

1436
01:10:09,240 --> 01:10:10,720
Speaker 1: So that's that's gonna do it.

1437
01:10:11,160 --> 01:10:13,160
Speaker 3: Before we leave, I think I just want to talk

1438
01:10:13,160 --> 01:10:15,160
Speaker 3: about the Bills Jags game a little bit more, and.

1439
01:10:16,920 --> 01:10:17,559
Speaker 1: That's gonna do it.

1440
01:10:17,600 --> 01:10:20,439
Speaker 3: I appreciate everyone for hanging around with us here on

1441
01:10:20,479 --> 01:10:23,040
Speaker 3: the Action Network podcast. Shout out to our sponsor DraftKings.

1442
01:10:23,040 --> 01:10:24,559
Speaker 3: If you want to tail some of the best we

1443
01:10:24,680 --> 01:10:27,360
Speaker 3: discussed today, you can find a quick slip link in

1444
01:10:27,560 --> 01:10:30,519
Speaker 3: the video podcast description, or you can go to Action

1445
01:10:30,560 --> 01:10:33,599
Speaker 3: network dot com slash bet now for sure to check

1446
01:10:33,600 --> 01:10:38,280
Speaker 3: out at Playbook on Twitter or x whatever you call it.

1447
01:10:38,280 --> 01:10:41,240
Speaker 3: It is our AI chatbot that can build bet slips

1448
01:10:41,240 --> 01:10:41,479
Speaker 3: for you.

1449
01:10:41,400 --> 01:10:42,840
Speaker 1: You could screenshot it. It's great.

1450
01:10:43,080 --> 01:10:44,840
Speaker 3: It's a great account, so be sure to follow that.

1451
01:10:45,160 --> 01:10:47,920
Speaker 3: You can find stuck on X at Stucky too, I'm

1452
01:10:47,960 --> 01:10:50,160
Speaker 3: at Chris Rabou or at those same handles on a

1453
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Speaker 3: free award winning Action Network app where you can find

1454
01:10:54,120 --> 01:10:57,440
Speaker 3: all of our best tracked and get notifications as it happens.

1455
01:10:57,920 --> 01:11:09,800
Speaker 5: Until next week, money let Go.

1456
01:11:17,720 --> 01:11:21,160
Speaker 3: Action Network reminds you please gamble responsibly.

1457
01:11:21,560 --> 01:11:24,400
Speaker 2: If you or someone you care about has a gambling problem,

1458
01:11:24,680 --> 01:11:27,320
Speaker 2: help is available twenty four to seven at one eight

1459
01:11:27,400 --> 01:11:28,160
Speaker 2: hundred Gambler