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Speaker 1: All right, Oldcode Hoops Tonight. Here at the volume heavy Tuesday,
Speaker 1: everybody ovath. You guys are having a great week like
Speaker 1: we always do during the all star break. We're gonna
Speaker 1: take some time today to zoom out and take a
Speaker 1: look at our contender rankings. We're gonna be ranking fifteen
Speaker 1: teams today. You guys have the drip before we get started.
Speaker 1: Subscribe to the Hoops Tonight YouTube channels. You don't miss
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Speaker 1: our brand new social media feeds on Twitter, Instagram, and
Speaker 1: Facebook where we're releasing content throughout the year. And the
Speaker 1: last but not least, keepdropping mailbag questions and the YouTube
Speaker 1: comments so we can keep getting to them on Fridays
Speaker 1: throughout the remainder of the season. So again, this is
Speaker 1: our contender rankings are kind of a living document, right,
Speaker 1: like stuff is moving around as we get more information.
Speaker 1: I just wanted to kind of peg down a list
Speaker 1: right here at this point in the season. I'm going
Speaker 1: to break these teams into five tiers. Okay, And remember
Speaker 1: this is not like our power rankings, our power rankings,
Speaker 1: which we're gonna get back to doing starting next Monday.
Speaker 1: Those are where we're just kind of shouting out the
Speaker 1: teams that are playing well as of late, right and
Speaker 1: more kind of focusing on the regular season. This is
Speaker 1: strictly who do I think has the best chance to
Speaker 1: get all the way to the lari Obrian Trophy, not
Speaker 1: to win one series, not even to win two series. Strictly,
Speaker 1: how likely I think these teams are to hoist the
Speaker 1: Larry O'Brian Trophy. Our first tier is our top tier contenders.
Speaker 1: These are teams that are so good and that have
Speaker 1: so much in the way of expectations that anything involving
Speaker 1: them losing before even getting to the finals would be
Speaker 1: considered a complete failure. These are teams that are championship
Speaker 1: or bust. Starting with number one, the Boston Celtics have
Speaker 1: been number one all year for me. They are currently
Speaker 1: at DraftKings at plus two thirty five to win the title.
Speaker 1: They've actually been supplanted as the favorite on DraftKings. Now
Speaker 1: the Thunder at plus two twenty five are the favorites.
Speaker 1: I don't like that value for OKC. I think it's
Speaker 1: far more likely that OKAC gets beat in the West
Speaker 1: than Boston gets beat in the East, and I'd pick
Speaker 1: Boston over OKC head to head. So like, in terms
Speaker 1: of the betting odds, I don't think that's a good
Speaker 1: price for OKAC, but they are currently the favorite to
Speaker 1: win the title. Boston is the clear number one pick
Speaker 1: to me because they have the hardest weakness to exploit.
Speaker 1: They don't actually have a personnel weakness really at all.
Speaker 1: They just have a personality weakness. Their top six in
Speaker 1: offense defense and defensive rating or defensive rebounding, their top
Speaker 1: ten paint defense, their top five three point line defense,
Speaker 1: and Cleaning the Glass currently has them as the number
Speaker 1: one transition defense in the NBA. Their weaknesses they occasionally
Speaker 1: play really shitty basketball in the regular season, and that
Speaker 1: to me has so much more to do with just
Speaker 1: malaise than anything else. They have a one to twenty
Speaker 1: three offensive rating against the top ten teams in point
Speaker 1: differential according to Cleaning the Glass that ranks second in
Speaker 1: the NBA, and they're also seventh in defense in those matchups.
Speaker 1: In terms of win loss in those matchups, they have
Speaker 1: a sixty nine win percentage against teams in the top
Speaker 1: ten and point differential that ranks number one in the NBA.
Speaker 1: Even over the Thunder, even over the Calves, I even
Speaker 1: think they've been feeling a little bit of like a
Speaker 1: reverse version of what the Calves got in the early
Speaker 1: part of the year, where like several Celtics are shooting
Speaker 1: well below their norms from three, and I think that's
Speaker 1: something that will normally over the tail end of the season.
Speaker 1: To me, they're better than the Thunder for a few
Speaker 1: key reasons. Number one, I think Jason Tatum has gotten
Speaker 1: a lot better and is now on the same tier
Speaker 1: as a guy like Shay Gilders Alexander, So I don't
Speaker 1: see the Thunder is having some substantial star advantage like
Speaker 1: I looked at it as a problem for the Celtics
Speaker 1: in years past. I also, too, think the Celtics are
Speaker 1: far more experienced down the roster in the playoff setting
Speaker 1: than OKAC is. Later on, I'm going to talk to
Speaker 1: you guys about age and I'm gonna list some of
Speaker 1: the ages of some of the players on both rosters,
Speaker 1: and you guys will get a better feel for that.
Speaker 1: But I do think experience is a big advantage for Boston.
Speaker 1: And then three, I think Boston's offense translates much better
Speaker 1: to the postseason than Oklahoma City's offense does, and I
Speaker 1: think the gap between these two teams defensively in the
Speaker 1: playoff context is substantially smaller. So I think again, I
Speaker 1: think Boston, what we're seeing from them, what we know
Speaker 1: they can do is more reliable in the playoff context,
Speaker 1: and what we've seen from ok Oklahoma City, they're versatile too.
Speaker 1: They can protect the rim, they have great switching looks.
Speaker 1: They have big lineups, they have small lineups. They have
Speaker 1: more players that can initiate offense than anyone in the league.
Speaker 1: But at the same time, they have a ton of
Speaker 1: dudes who can play off ball as play finishers, and
Speaker 1: I think they have an easier path through the conference.
Speaker 1: I think Boston is the clear cut championship favorite at
Speaker 1: this point. I think a lot of the stuff we've
Speaker 1: seen from them that's looked bad at times this year
Speaker 1: is mostly just dealing with the eighty two game regular
Speaker 1: season after you've already won the trophy, and again, all
Speaker 1: these other teams that we're talking about are just dealing
Speaker 1: with another level of urgency. The Celtics are still a
Speaker 1: clear Number one for me. Number two the Oklahoma City
Speaker 1: Thunder on DraftKings at plus two twenty five to win
Speaker 1: the title. The main point of optimism for me with
Speaker 1: the Thunder is their defense. They have the best defense
Speaker 1: in the league and it isn't particularly close. The gap
Speaker 1: between their defensive rating and the second best defensive rating
Speaker 1: is the same as the gap between the second best
Speaker 1: defensive rating and the tenth best defensive rating in the NBA.
Speaker 1: They defend well in every single area like Austin does,
Speaker 1: but they also force a ton of turnovers and get
Speaker 1: out and transition off of those turnovers, which is something
Speaker 1: that Boston doesn't. The only thing that don't do well
Speaker 1: on defense is they're not a good defensive rebounding team.
Speaker 1: But that is just a real asset that they have
Speaker 1: in any playoff series, the best defense in the league,
Speaker 1: that's going to provide a lot of problems for teams
Speaker 1: to deal with. I also think Oklahoma City has a
Speaker 1: much better primary weapon to deploy on stars in terms
Speaker 1: of Lou Dort, who I think is a top tier
Speaker 1: guy in that regard and just like a real asset
Speaker 1: to just be able to put him on the other
Speaker 1: team's best player and just know for a fact that
Speaker 1: he's going to make that guy uncomfortable. He does it
Speaker 1: against guards like Donovan Mitchell and BIG's of big old
Speaker 1: wings like Luka Doncic, like he's just as versatile as
Speaker 1: they get, just a huge weapon for that defense, and
Speaker 1: statistically their offense is excellent. Their sixth and overall offensive rating,
Speaker 1: their fifth and half court offensive rating, and cleaning the
Speaker 1: Glass has them is the fourth best transition offense in
Speaker 1: the league. Shay is still the substantial favorite to win
Speaker 1: the MVP on DraftKings right now, so every metric would
Speaker 1: tell us that Oklahoma City is the best team in
Speaker 1: the league. Again, like I mentioned earlier, even DraftKings has
Speaker 1: them as the championship favorite. So why do I have
Speaker 1: Boston ahead of them? I think Oklahoma City's dominance in
Speaker 1: this particular regular season is a bit inflated over their
Speaker 1: playoff viability. I have consistently talked about over the years
Speaker 1: about how young super athletic teams have a certain impact
Speaker 1: in the regular season that older veteran teams struggle to match.
Speaker 1: It gets even more exaggerated by the fact that in
Speaker 1: the regular season you don't have as much time to prep.
Speaker 1: When you run into OKC for a single game on
Speaker 1: a random Tuesday in February, it can catch you off guard.
Speaker 1: You can get your butt kicked, especially when their defense
Speaker 1: is built on aggression enforcing mistakes. Every single one of
Speaker 1: their top eight minutes per game guys in their rotation
Speaker 1: is twenty six or younger. Three of them are twenty
Speaker 1: three or younger. Here's the Celtics as a counter example
Speaker 1: of their time eight rotation players. Only Jason Tatum is
Speaker 1: twenty six or younger, and he's exactly twenty six. Three
Speaker 1: of their top eight are in their thirties. Two of
Speaker 1: them are over age thirty four. You think those guys
Speaker 1: are gonna bring the same level of nightly intensity that
Speaker 1: Oklahoma City is bringing this year, of course not. When
Speaker 1: you get to the postseason, two things happen that limit
Speaker 1: the effectiveness of this hillacious style that Oklahoma City is playing. One,
Speaker 1: all of the Vets start matching the level of intensity
Speaker 1: that the young guys bring. Now, the young guys are
Speaker 1: still more athletic, but the gap shrinks as the Vets
Speaker 1: engage for urgent basketball. And then two, you get to
Speaker 1: prepare for several days for the matchup, and then even
Speaker 1: within the matchup, you get two weeks to try to
Speaker 1: solve the problem. Simple example. Last year, the thunder were
Speaker 1: also a dominant, forcing turnovers, get out and transition type
Speaker 1: of team. Four regular season matchups against the MAVs, they
Speaker 1: force sixteen turnovers per game and scored twenty four point
Speaker 1: three points off of those turnovers in the regular season.
Speaker 1: In the four losses to Dallas in the postseason, they
Speaker 1: only forced fourteen turnovers per game, and they only scored
Speaker 1: eighteen points off of them, more than six points less.
Speaker 1: That makes a substantial difference when you're splitting tiny margins
Speaker 1: between two great teams. The problem they present the confusion,
Speaker 1: the chaos, the transition attack. The effectiveness goes down in
Speaker 1: the postseason because the vets are more up for it
Speaker 1: and teams are more prepared for it. So the question
Speaker 1: is how good are the thunder Really. They're awesome. They're
Speaker 1: top tier contender. I think they're the second most likely
Speaker 1: to win the title. But the reality of who they
Speaker 1: are as a team is somewhere between what they were
Speaker 1: last year against Dallas and what they are now, somewhere
Speaker 1: in the middle there, and I think that that puts
Speaker 1: them firmly below the Boston Celtics. I think the biggest
Speaker 1: problem they'll face in the postseason is role players making shots.
Speaker 1: Isaiah Joe is the only player to hit forty percent
Speaker 1: of his threes against Dallas last year. Cason Wallace, Jaylen Williams,
Speaker 1: Lou Dort, Aaron Wiggins, Chet Holmgren. That's Jaylen Williams, backup
Speaker 1: center Lou Dort, Aaron Wiggins, and Chet Holmgren all shot
Speaker 1: thirty three percent. Are worse in that series from three
Speaker 1: when they've lost games. This year, it's been a similar issue.
Speaker 1: The offense bogs down nobody but SGA can hit a shot.
Speaker 1: To be clear, if they shoot the ball well across
Speaker 1: the board, their defense is so good they'll win the title.
Speaker 1: I'm just skeptical that they'll shoot the ball well enough.
Speaker 1: They're seventeenth and three point percentage this year their bottom
Speaker 1: ten and spot up efficiency according to Synergy. Teams are
Speaker 1: going to pack the paint, They're going to dare other
Speaker 1: guys to make shots and shay to try to score
Speaker 1: a million points. That is the one thing that I
Speaker 1: think makes them a lot more vulnerable than their record
Speaker 1: would lead you to believe, if that makes sense. Moving
Speaker 1: on to our second tier, calling this the appropriate fear tier.
Speaker 1: These are teams that have pretty high expectations, Like if
Speaker 1: any of these teams lost a first round series, it
Speaker 1: would be considered a massive failure. But at the same time,
Speaker 1: they're obviously aware that Boston and OKAC are gonna be
Speaker 1: really tough challenges for them that it's an uphill climb there.
Speaker 1: But on the flip side, I think both OKC and
Speaker 1: Boston should have an appropriate fear of these teams and
Speaker 1: the reality that they could potentially upset them. I also
Speaker 1: think all three of these teams are particularly particularly vulnerable
Speaker 1: to matchups that they probably need to avoid to get
Speaker 1: where they want to go. Well, I'm actually gonna name
Speaker 1: all three tiers here for an exit so I can
Speaker 1: demonstrate the matchup weakness. The three teams I have in
Speaker 1: this tier are the Nuggets, the Calves, and then the Lakers.
Speaker 1: To me, if the Nuggets see Minnesota, they're probably gonna lose.
Speaker 1: If the Calves see Boston, I think they're probably gonna lose.
Speaker 1: And if the Lakers see the Nuggets, I think they're
Speaker 1: probably going to lose. And by the way, we're gonna
Speaker 1: get further into this when we get to the Lakers.
Speaker 1: They're the one team in this entire list that is
Speaker 1: like I don't feel very strongly about because they're just
Speaker 1: kind of loosely thrown in here because we've just seen
Speaker 1: so little of them with Luco, we just don't know
Speaker 1: what they're capable of. We'll talk more about that when
Speaker 1: we get to the Lakers. Number three. The Denver Nuggets
Speaker 1: currently at plus fourteen hundred to win the title on DraftKings,
Speaker 1: one of the best values that I think I see
Speaker 1: on that list. I gave Denver the not here over
Speaker 1: Cleveland for a simple reason. They present an unsolvable problem
Speaker 1: for everyone in the league, including the Celtics and the Thunder,
Speaker 1: which is not something that I think the Calves present.
Speaker 1: Nicole jokicch is far and away the best player in
Speaker 1: the world and a guy that none of these teams
Speaker 1: can really do anything with. Again, we'll talk more about
Speaker 1: the Calves in a minute, but I just don't think
Speaker 1: they present that type of problem. The Nuggets have achieved
Speaker 1: a similar level of unguardability to what they had in
Speaker 1: twenty twenty three, in large part because Jokic got his
Speaker 1: jump shot back in a huge way. He's been one
Speaker 1: of the very best jump shooters in the league this year.
Speaker 1: Here's a simple stat to demonstrate the difference between this
Speaker 1: year's Nuggets offense and previous years. This year, the Nuggets
Speaker 1: have a one to twenty six point one offensive rating
Speaker 1: with Nikole Jokic on the floor. Last year that number
Speaker 1: was one twenty two point four, so a substantial drop there.
Speaker 1: Even the year they won the title it was only
Speaker 1: one twenty four point two. Think about how crazy that is.
Speaker 1: The Nuggets are scoring two points better per one hundred
Speaker 1: possessions then they did the year they won the title
Speaker 1: with Nikole Jokich on the floor, even with less shooting
Speaker 1: around him than ever before. The main weakness with Denver
Speaker 1: is their defense. Their sixteenth in defensive rating, twenty eighth
Speaker 1: in transition defense according to Clinton the last twelfth, and
Speaker 1: half court defense, seventeenth in clutch defense. They also give
Speaker 1: up the fifth most points per game in the paint
Speaker 1: and the seventh most made threes per game. So that's
Speaker 1: obviously where the hole is right now. It's a similar
Speaker 1: idea to what we were talking about with OKC. This
Speaker 1: is an older veteran team that isn't going to bring
Speaker 1: the same level of intensity night tonight. Nuggets will be
Speaker 1: a better defense when they get to the postseason. The
Speaker 1: question is how much better will they be good enough?
Speaker 1: But if they can leverage their defense enough to unlock
Speaker 1: their borderline unguardable offense with Jokic, they absolutely can win
Speaker 1: the whole thing, and that's why I have them all
Speaker 1: the way up at number three. Again. I do worry
Speaker 1: about them for that Minnesota matchup, though, that's one that
Speaker 1: I think they're yet to overcome and have some serious
Speaker 1: issues with Number four, the Cleveland Cavaliers. They're currently at
Speaker 1: plus seven hundred to win the title. According to DraftKings.
Speaker 1: This is a really, really good basketball team by every measure, right.
Speaker 1: They're producing similar levels of insane offense to what Denver's doing,
Speaker 1: and they're a very respectable defense, albeit not in the
Speaker 1: same stratosphere as Boston and OKC. I think part of
Speaker 1: the reason why they're still undervalued by a lot of
Speaker 1: people is that Darius Garland and Evan Mobley kind of
Speaker 1: have a reputation right they appeared to be the weak
Speaker 1: points in their previous playoff exits. I just think both
Speaker 1: of those guys are substantially better players now, especially Garland,
Speaker 1: who has become one of my favorite players to watch
Speaker 1: in the league and has a remarkable ability to generate
Speaker 1: dribble penetrate. The main reasons I'm lower on the Calves
Speaker 1: than most people are is one. They also rely a
Speaker 1: good amount enforcing turnovers and getting out in transition, which,
Speaker 1: like we talked about earlier, can be less effective when
Speaker 1: you get to May. In June and then two. They
Speaker 1: shot the ball preposterously well to start the year. I
Speaker 1: remember at one point a month or so back, I
Speaker 1: looked at and I was like, oh my god, they're
Speaker 1: shooting forty five percent on transition threes, Like that's insane.
Speaker 1: Since January twelfth, the Calves are eleventh and three point percentage,
Speaker 1: and as they're hot shooting has come back a bit,
Speaker 1: their defense has slipped. They're now only eleventh and defense
Speaker 1: in that span, twelfth in points off of opponent turnovers
Speaker 1: in that span, and they're just eleven and six in
Speaker 1: their last seventeen games, which is really good. I just
Speaker 1: don't view them as the type of world beating team
Speaker 1: that they were early in the year when they were
Speaker 1: just making every damn three point shot their take. I
Speaker 1: personally think the Calves are destined for a Conference finals
Speaker 1: loss to the Boston Celtics, and I think they're capable
Speaker 1: of losing to in Indiana or Milwaukee or New York
Speaker 1: in round two, although I'd favor them over all three
Speaker 1: of those teams. The case if you're the case for Cleveland.
Speaker 1: Beating Boston is having home court advantage, jumping up two
Speaker 1: to Oho and then stealing game three or Game four
Speaker 1: in Boston and just putting them too far behind the
Speaker 1: eight ball to be able to come back and win
Speaker 1: that series. But we've just seen time and time again,
Speaker 1: even as recently as their last matchup, Boston just gets
Speaker 1: great shots. And if it wasn't for a Donovan Mitchell
Speaker 1: heater in a game where Jalen Brown didn't even play,
Speaker 1: they would have been zero and three against the Celtics
Speaker 1: this year, it just doesn't seem like a team that
Speaker 1: I think they can overcome Number five the Los Angeles
Speaker 1: Lakers plus eighteen hundred on DraftKings right now to win
Speaker 1: the title. Again, I'm kind of just throwing them in
Speaker 1: here at the bottom of this tier because we really
Speaker 1: don't know how good they're going to be. I've seen
Speaker 1: a lot of strong opinions about how bad the Lakers
Speaker 1: are going to be, and it's just not based on
Speaker 1: anything we've actually seen. Every other team we're going to
Speaker 1: cover today, as we've seen a lot of what they're
Speaker 1: going to be, right, everything with the Lakers is conjecture.
Speaker 1: I do think their offense is going to be absolutely amazing.
Speaker 1: That's not something worth overthinking. It's arguably the best combination
Speaker 1: of shot creation and play finishing talent that we've seen
Speaker 1: since the twenty eighteen Warriors. The two primary shot creators,
Speaker 1: and Lebron and Luca are two of the best playoff
Speaker 1: shot creators we've ever seen who thrive in the physicality
Speaker 1: of that environment. They also require very similar types of defenders,
Speaker 1: which I think will test the defensive depth of teams.
Speaker 1: At the forward spot. I would recommend not overthinking the offense.
Speaker 1: They're going to score a million points. Defense is where
Speaker 1: it gets tricky. The Lakers had an eleven to two
Speaker 1: stretch right before Luca joined the team where they were
Speaker 1: literally the number one defense in the league, and they
Speaker 1: put forward several impressive defensive efforts against teams like Boston,
Speaker 1: the Knicks, the Clippers. They have more good defensive players
Speaker 1: than people think. They turned D'Angelo Russell into Dorian Finney Smith.
Speaker 1: Jared Vanderbilt is one of the better defenders in the league.
Speaker 1: Lebron James, as he's become engaged with this new group,
Speaker 1: has been a good defender. Gabe is a good defender
Speaker 1: at the guard spot. Even a guy like Austin does
Speaker 1: his job, even though he can get into some situations
Speaker 1: early in the year where he's asked to guard the
Speaker 1: other team's best player and it's not a good fit
Speaker 1: for him, but he as a subsidiary defender can be
Speaker 1: just fine. They've started doing a much better job of
Speaker 1: executing JJ redicks one through five switching scheme. I think
Speaker 1: they have a good defensive punch that's been clearly demonstrated
Speaker 1: over the course of the last month. But you're now
Speaker 1: adding in forty ish minutes of Luka Doncic in the playoffs,
Speaker 1: and he's a guy that can be downright damaging to
Speaker 1: a defense in certain matchups, specifically teams that can really
Speaker 1: space the floor. It will be JJ Reddick's responsibility to
Speaker 1: try to find ways to deploy him properly in each
Speaker 1: playoff matchup. So here's the big question. With Luca in
Speaker 1: the picture. Will the Lakers be a terrible defense, an
Speaker 1: average defense, or a great defense. I don't think they'll
Speaker 1: be great. It's too much of a downgrade getting forty
Speaker 1: minutes of Luke on the instead of two way wings, right,
Speaker 1: But I don't think they'll be terrible either. Like I
Speaker 1: was arguing with Carson Breber from Nerd Sessh on their
Speaker 1: show the other day, and like he thinks they're gonna
Speaker 1: be a bottom ten defense. I disagree. I think they're
Speaker 1: gonna be a middle ten defense. They have too many
Speaker 1: good defensive players to just be a bad defensive team.
Speaker 1: But if they can get to the point where they're
Speaker 1: an upper middle team, like in that eleven to fifteen
Speaker 1: range on the defensive end of the floor, that's where
Speaker 1: I think they have a good enough offense that they
Speaker 1: can be a legitimate championship contender. My main concerns are
Speaker 1: matchup related. I think they really match up well with OKC.
Speaker 1: Lou Dort can only guarden one of Luca and Lebron,
Speaker 1: and the Lakers are just so much bigger and stronger
Speaker 1: on the perimeter. I think it's a real advantage for them.
Speaker 1: I also think Luca and Lebron are great counters to
Speaker 1: Oklahoma City's aggressive, turnover forcing defense, like they can get
Speaker 1: the ball across the court to guys that get their
Speaker 1: defense into rotation. But I think they match up really
Speaker 1: poorly with Denver and really poorly with Boston Denver because
Speaker 1: they will have a world of trouble with Jokic and
Speaker 1: Boston because they'll be able to actually space the floor
Speaker 1: enough to where Luca's lack of lateral quickness will be
Speaker 1: a huge problem. But even within the context of those matchups,
Speaker 1: or the OKC matchup or matchups with teams we have
Speaker 1: further down on this list, I don't really have a
Speaker 1: strong opinion on anything because we just need to see
Speaker 1: more of this new look Lakers team playing basketball. Last
Speaker 1: note on the Lakers two injuries. Talked about this the
Speaker 1: other day after they lost to the Jazz. If they
Speaker 1: lose Jackson Hayes, if they lose a Dorian Finney Smith,
Speaker 1: they could be in a real rough spot because all
Speaker 1: of a sudden, they're gonna have to play Vando or
Speaker 1: Christian KloCo or Alex Lynn at all times, and if
Speaker 1: one of those guys is on the floor, it allows
Speaker 1: teams to park a rim protector under the basket, make
Speaker 1: them a jump shooting team, which can bog down their offense.
Speaker 1: So they kind of have a narrow matchup matchup kind
Speaker 1: of pathway, and they kind of have a narrow injury pathway.
Speaker 1: But I don't overthink it. They're gonna score a million points.
Speaker 1: They've been a good defense for a while. I do
Speaker 1: believe they're a legitimate championship contender. The question is where,
Speaker 1: and we'll have a better idea of that once we
Speaker 1: get deeper into the season. On to our third tier,
Speaker 1: I'm going to start moving a little bit faster through
Speaker 1: teams now because we got a bunch to get to.
Speaker 1: This to me is the high variance tier. These are
Speaker 1: teams with real upside, real potential to win the title,
Speaker 1: but that also have glaring weaknesses that could get them
Speaker 1: beat early. These are teams that if they lost in
Speaker 1: the first round, I wouldn't be very surprised, but if
Speaker 1: they made it to the finals I wouldn't be very
Speaker 1: surprised either. They all have huge strengths and huge weaknesses.
Speaker 1: Starting with number six, the New York Knicks at plus
Speaker 1: one thousand to win the title on DraftKings. They're the
Speaker 1: second best offense in the league this year, led by
Speaker 1: Jalen Brunson in superior play, finishing to just about everyone
Speaker 1: in the league. Og McHale and Cat are all just
Speaker 1: absolutely lethal. If you give them an advantage, they'll have
Speaker 1: a brilliant transition attack. They don't force a turn of
Speaker 1: turnovers or get a ton of stops. But when they do,
Speaker 1: they'll get up down up the floor like a blur,
Speaker 1: getting great shots. They've been a mediocre defense all year,
Speaker 1: though they're eighteenth and defensive rating, absolutely brutal against the
Speaker 1: top teams. They're twenty fourth and defensive rating against teams
Speaker 1: in the top ten in point differential, and they're just
Speaker 1: five and eight in those games. And it's the same
Speaker 1: story every time, Teams just picking on Cat, picking on
Speaker 1: Jalen Brunson, sometimes both at the same time, and they
Speaker 1: just get their defense in rotation and they get great shots.
Speaker 1: They give up the highest opponent three point percentage in
Speaker 1: the league and their twentieth and points in the paint
Speaker 1: allowed per game. And we haven't even got to the
Speaker 1: real issue facing them, which is that they appear utterly
Speaker 1: incapable of getting buckets or stops against the Boston Celtics.
Speaker 1: Their offense and their defense falls apart against them. I
Speaker 1: just think it's inevitable that Boston beats New York if
Speaker 1: they ever run into him in the postseason. Their only
Speaker 1: hope is that Mitchell Robinson comes back and gives them
Speaker 1: a viable defensive look that can work against the top
Speaker 1: teams in the league. The reason why I say they
Speaker 1: have real upside though, is pretty simple. There are teams
Speaker 1: that I think give Boss issues. The next team on
Speaker 1: this list is an example. All it takes is Boston
Speaker 1: getting upset and suddenly the Knicks look like a team
Speaker 1: that has real potential to get out of the conference.
Speaker 1: So they obviously have that chance there. I just don't
Speaker 1: think that they can get through Boston if they run
Speaker 1: into them. Number seven, the Milwaukee Bucks plus three thousand
Speaker 1: to win the title on DraftKings much more of a
Speaker 1: threat now that Kyle Kuzma is in the picture. I
Speaker 1: think he gives the Bucks a much more physically imposing frontline.
Speaker 1: The interesting thing for me with the Bucks is I
Speaker 1: think they're the team that gives the Celtics the most
Speaker 1: issues in the conference. They've consistently given them issues over
Speaker 1: the last few years because they can protect the rim well,
Speaker 1: they can bait Boston into jump shooting, and Gianness is
Speaker 1: just this indomitable force, right. But they're an interesting team
Speaker 1: because they're just as likely to lose in the first
Speaker 1: round to somebody as they already even make it to
Speaker 1: a Boston matchup, which again is kind of the theme
Speaker 1: for this tier. Again, these are high variance teams. Wouldn't
Speaker 1: be surprised if they lost in the first round, wouldn't
Speaker 1: be surprised if they made it to the finals. The
Speaker 1: scary thing for the Bucks is they've been frankly terrible
Speaker 1: against the top teams in the league. This year. They
Speaker 1: won the big game against Oklahoma City and the Ncason
Speaker 1: Tournament final, and that was an impressive win. That's the
Speaker 1: one you cling to for upside. But they are just
Speaker 1: two and twelve this year against teams in the top
Speaker 1: ten in point differential, in bottom four in both offense
Speaker 1: and defense in those matchups. Number eight the Minnesota Timberwolves
Speaker 1: plus six thousand. The Timberwolves are an interesting team to
Speaker 1: me because they have these obvious gaping flaws on the
Speaker 1: offensive end of the floor, which would lead you to
Speaker 1: believe that they could lose to anyone. And again, like
Speaker 1: we talked about, that's the theme of this tier. But
Speaker 1: the reason why I have the Wolves so high has
Speaker 1: a lot to do with their playoff run last year.
Speaker 1: Hey what they did? Okay, see the other night. They
Speaker 1: have the ability to ratchet up their physical intensity in
Speaker 1: a way that a lot of teams really struggle to match.
Speaker 1: They have so many, like top tier defensive players that
Speaker 1: can really make opponents uncomfortable, and you get to the
Speaker 1: playoffs and the officials let you get away with being
Speaker 1: more handsy and grabby, and it just is a huge
Speaker 1: advantage for Minnesota. I also think the Wolves match up
Speaker 1: really well with Denver and OKC, which bodes well for
Speaker 1: them as just being a threat to upset them. I
Speaker 1: think they're actually more vulnerable against a team like the
Speaker 1: Lakers because they wouldn't be able to guard Luca or
Speaker 1: Lebron just because they can toss Jade McDaniels around most
Speaker 1: of their perimeter guys are a little too thin. But yeah,
Speaker 1: like Minnesota is an interesting team because like they could
Speaker 1: easily get beat in the first round by their offense
Speaker 1: falls apart. But like I wouldn't be stunned if they
Speaker 1: beat OKAC, or if they beat Denver and went on
Speaker 1: a run and just started mauling everybody with their defense,
Speaker 1: and nas Reed is playing so damn well, and like
Speaker 1: they're just they just they just look to me as
Speaker 1: a team that's more of a playoff threat than a
Speaker 1: regular season threat. Then, lastly, in this tier, the minute.
Speaker 1: The Memphis Grizzlies plus three thousand the metrics PEG. Memphis
Speaker 1: is an upper tier team. They're fifth in offense, seventh
Speaker 1: and defense, second in rebounding. They're a very very good
Speaker 1: regular season team, but their offense just has a tendency
Speaker 1: to bog down against the good teams. They're just eighteenth
Speaker 1: and spot up efficiency just a one to oh nine
Speaker 1: point seven offensive rating in matchups against the top ten
Speaker 1: point differentials in the league according to Cleaning the Glass,
Speaker 1: and they're just six and ten in those matchups. Same
Speaker 1: sort of story that consistently happens there. They've also struggled
Speaker 1: in the clutch, where teams just pack the paint. It
Speaker 1: becomes kind of a shot making contest with John Morant
Speaker 1: and Jaren Jackson, and it turns into a lot of
Speaker 1: difficult shots. They just haven't been able to have the
Speaker 1: same level of success against the best teams in the
Speaker 1: league that they did against the rest of their schedule.
Speaker 1: That's pretty typical for young athletic teams right Their success
Speaker 1: will be very matchup dependent. I could see them upsetting
Speaker 1: teams like Denver or LA because of their lack of
Speaker 1: rim protection. But they're the sort of team that if
Speaker 1: they ran into like the MAVs with a healthy Anthony
Speaker 1: Davis or Minnesota, teams that can really pack the paint
Speaker 1: with length, I could see them losing in the first round. So,
Speaker 1: once again, sticking to the theme of that tier, our fourth tier.
Speaker 1: These are the puncher's chance teams. These are teams that
Speaker 1: are most likely first round exits, but you can at
Speaker 1: least see a viable pathway towards them making a deep
Speaker 1: playoff run if a bunch of things go their way.
Speaker 1: Number ten, the Goal In State Warriors plus three thousand
Speaker 1: is a very good defensive team with a lot of
Speaker 1: perimeter speed to dominant front court defenders and Jimmy Butler
Speaker 1: and Draymond Green. But their offense is limited and it
Speaker 1: can really grind to a halt sometimes, especially when Steph
Speaker 1: is having a rough night. But it really is this
Speaker 1: simple to me. It doesn't matter what the metrics are.
Speaker 1: If you find yourself in a playoff series and it's
Speaker 1: Draymond and it's Steph and it's Jimmy on the floor,
Speaker 1: they're gonna be really tough to deal with. And if
Speaker 1: those guys dig deep, like if Steph has a throwback
Speaker 1: throwback playoff run like what he had in twenty twenty two,
Speaker 1: or if Jimmy Butler has a throwback playoff run like
Speaker 1: he had in twenty twenty three, they can absolutely beat
Speaker 1: some teams and make some noise. Number eleven the Dallas
Speaker 1: Mavericks plus thirty five hundred feels like their legitimate championship
Speaker 1: upside was taken off with the departure of Luka Doncic.
Speaker 1: I loved this roster. I would have probably had them
Speaker 1: right up around that, like number five spot if they
Speaker 1: had kept Luca. That's the same guy who got to
Speaker 1: got to them, got them within three wins of the
Speaker 1: title last year, right, But it is possible to see
Speaker 1: a tiny pathway for them this year on the strength
Speaker 1: of their defense and a surgical playoff run from a
Speaker 1: guy like Kyrie Irving. We haven't even seen what ad
Speaker 1: will look like next to Derek Lively. I he's a
Speaker 1: substantial better defender than Daniel Gaffert. They could be frightening.
Speaker 1: They might not even make the playoffs with all the injuries.
Speaker 1: But if they somehow get in and they get a
Speaker 1: first round series and eighty's healthy and Derek Lively's healthy
Speaker 1: and Kyrie Irving's healthy and Klay Thompson is healthy. PJ.
Speaker 1: Washington's healthy. We'd be foolish to say that they can't
Speaker 1: beat a top team and go on a run. They're
Speaker 1: going to be an absolute pain in the ass to
Speaker 1: deal with. But I think it's far more likely that
Speaker 1: they lose in the first round and then number twelve
Speaker 1: the Indiana Pacers plus thirteen thousand to win the title
Speaker 1: on DraftKings right now, real long shot. There so some
Speaker 1: value if you believe in the Pacers. They have the
Speaker 1: fifth best record in the league since December thirteenth, the
Speaker 1: twenty and eight, seventh in offense, and eleventh in defense.
Speaker 1: I just don't think any of their units have the
Speaker 1: level of resilience necessary to be a legit contender. I've
Speaker 1: seen Siakam and Halliburton struggle to create shots too often.
Speaker 1: I've seen their defense fall apart too often, and they
Speaker 1: are terrible rebounding team. So I just don't think they
Speaker 1: have any like specific unit that's good enough to really
Speaker 1: carry them. But they won the War of Attrition last year.
Speaker 1: While every team broke down around them, they just kept
Speaker 1: trucking along. They even held leads late in the conference finals.
Speaker 1: Against Boston. They're a good ball pressure team. They're a
Speaker 1: good transition offense. They can keep games close and wear
Speaker 1: you down. It's impossible not to at least consider them
Speaker 1: a threat after they made the conference finals last year.
Speaker 1: Number thirteen. Our last team in this year, the Los
Speaker 1: Angeles Clippers. They're plus thirty five hundred to win the title.
Speaker 1: Tons of perimeter speed, guys who can defend both on
Speaker 1: and off the ball. James Harden was an All Star
Speaker 1: this year for his shot creation ability. If Kazubas has
Speaker 1: turned himself into like a super dependable starting center in
Speaker 1: this league, Norman Palace having a career year, and Kawhi's
Speaker 1: back now, theoretical championship upside for the Clippers comes down
Speaker 1: to Kawhi reaching his peak and he just hasn't looked
Speaker 1: like that guy yet. Can't write them off because if
Speaker 1: Kawhi does get back to that level, this roster is
Speaker 1: absolutely good enough to hoist the trophy. But we all
Speaker 1: know that that's just a very narrow possibility that for
Speaker 1: something like that to happen. Moving on to our last tier,
Speaker 1: these are teams that think they can compete for a championship,
Speaker 1: but that I can't actually see a viable path for them.
Speaker 1: These are teams, like if I even just saw them
Speaker 1: playing in the conference finals, I would be absolutely stunned.
Speaker 1: Number fourteen the Houston Rockets plus six thousand to win
Speaker 1: the title. They just don't have the shot creation to
Speaker 1: hang with the top teams. Even just losing Fred van
Speaker 1: Vliet caused the bottom to fall out for him. They're
Speaker 1: two to six since he got hurt after being like
Speaker 1: utterly dominant with him before that. They're even struggling against
Speaker 1: bad teams in that stretch. I think it's highly likely
Speaker 1: that they lose in the first round. And even if
Speaker 1: they catch like a really favorable matchup and like beat
Speaker 1: a bad playing team in the first round, I still
Speaker 1: think they're certain to lose in the second round. And lastly,
Speaker 1: Number fifteen the Phoenix Suns plus twelve thousand to win
Speaker 1: the title, real long shot odds. There just a horrific defense,
Speaker 1: a horrific rebounding team that doesn't score the ball nearly
Speaker 1: well enough to be a threat to do anything. Even
Speaker 1: with Kevin Durant and Devin Booker on the floor together
Speaker 1: this year, they have only a one to fifteen point
Speaker 1: six offensive rating. That's more than ten points worse than
Speaker 1: the Nuggets are with Nicole Jokic, for example, per one
Speaker 1: hundred possessions. The roster is full of guys who probably
Speaker 1: shouldn't be in the rotation on a serious basketball team.
Speaker 1: I think they're destined for a plan or first round
Speaker 1: loss and probably completely blowing up the roster when they
Speaker 1: get to this summer. That's it for our contender rankings. Also,
Speaker 1: just to give you guys an idea of what I
Speaker 1: thought were the best values in terms of betting odds
Speaker 1: Denver at plus fourteen hundred, I think they got a
Speaker 1: real shot to win it this year. That's a great
Speaker 1: price in the Minnesota Timberwolves again, plus six thousand for
Speaker 1: a team that matches up really well with the top
Speaker 1: teams in the league and just as this otherworldly physical
Speaker 1: defense potential when you get to the postseason. I just
Speaker 1: think that's an interesting price to be able to jump
Speaker 1: on for value as well. All right, guys, it's all
Speaker 1: Hafford today is always as sincerely appreciate you guys for
Speaker 1: supporting me and supporting the show. We're gonna take a
Speaker 1: little break for this last little break before we get
Speaker 1: into the home stretch of the season. Wednesday night, the
Speaker 1: Lakers play the Hornets. We'll be breaking that game down
Speaker 1: on Thursday morning. I will see you guys that the volume.
Speaker 1: What's Up guys, As always, I appreciate you for listening
Speaker 1: to and supporting OOPS tonight. It would actually be really
Speaker 1: helpful for us if you guys would take a second
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Speaker 1: appreciate you guys supporting us, but if you could take
Speaker 1: a minute to do that, I'd really appreciate it.