1 00:00:01,440 --> 00:00:05,160 Speaker 1: The volume. Who's scoring big in the NBA this season? 2 00:00:05,360 --> 00:00:07,160 Speaker 1: You are with all the new ways to get in 3 00:00:07,200 --> 00:00:09,240 Speaker 1: on the action at Draft Kings sports Book, an official 4 00:00:09,240 --> 00:00:11,920 Speaker 1: sports betting partner of the NBA. From Monster Slams to 5 00:00:12,000 --> 00:00:14,239 Speaker 1: dishing the rock to cleaning the glass, get behind your 6 00:00:14,240 --> 00:00:17,040 Speaker 1: favorite players and the prop bets you can make on DraftKings, 7 00:00:17,040 --> 00:00:19,439 Speaker 1: the home of NBA player props. Ready to place your 8 00:00:19,440 --> 00:00:21,760 Speaker 1: first bet? Try betting on something simple like picking how 9 00:00:21,760 --> 00:00:23,720 Speaker 1: many points your favorite player will have. 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You guys are having a great week like 34 00:01:43,120 --> 00:01:46,360 Speaker 1: we always do during the all star break. We're gonna 35 00:01:46,360 --> 00:01:48,200 Speaker 1: take some time today to zoom out and take a 36 00:01:48,200 --> 00:01:51,960 Speaker 1: look at our contender rankings. We're gonna be ranking fifteen 37 00:01:52,120 --> 00:01:54,000 Speaker 1: teams today. You guys have the drip before we get started. 38 00:01:54,040 --> 00:01:55,880 Speaker 1: Subscribe to the Hoops Tonight YouTube channels. You don't miss 39 00:01:55,880 --> 00:01:57,520 Speaker 1: any more of our videos, follow me on Twitter and 40 00:01:57,600 --> 00:02:00,320 Speaker 1: underscore jsnlts. You guys don't miss show announcement. So forget 41 00:02:00,360 --> 00:02:02,040 Speaker 1: about a podcast feed wherever get you podcasts in our 42 00:02:02,040 --> 00:02:04,080 Speaker 1: hoops tonight. It's also super helpful if we leave a 43 00:02:04,200 --> 00:02:06,280 Speaker 1: rating and a review on that front. Don't forget about 44 00:02:06,280 --> 00:02:08,320 Speaker 1: our brand new social media feeds on Twitter, Instagram, and 45 00:02:08,320 --> 00:02:10,639 Speaker 1: Facebook where we're releasing content throughout the year. And the 46 00:02:10,720 --> 00:02:13,040 Speaker 1: last but not least, keepdropping mailbag questions and the YouTube 47 00:02:13,040 --> 00:02:15,240 Speaker 1: comments so we can keep getting to them on Fridays 48 00:02:15,280 --> 00:02:18,160 Speaker 1: throughout the remainder of the season. So again, this is 49 00:02:18,440 --> 00:02:21,480 Speaker 1: our contender rankings are kind of a living document, right, 50 00:02:21,560 --> 00:02:23,920 Speaker 1: like stuff is moving around as we get more information. 51 00:02:24,360 --> 00:02:26,200 Speaker 1: I just wanted to kind of peg down a list 52 00:02:26,600 --> 00:02:29,760 Speaker 1: right here at this point in the season. I'm going 53 00:02:29,840 --> 00:02:33,640 Speaker 1: to break these teams into five tiers. Okay, And remember 54 00:02:33,680 --> 00:02:35,720 Speaker 1: this is not like our power rankings, our power rankings, 55 00:02:35,720 --> 00:02:38,080 Speaker 1: which we're gonna get back to doing starting next Monday. 56 00:02:38,600 --> 00:02:40,320 Speaker 1: Those are where we're just kind of shouting out the 57 00:02:40,360 --> 00:02:42,560 Speaker 1: teams that are playing well as of late, right and 58 00:02:42,639 --> 00:02:45,160 Speaker 1: more kind of focusing on the regular season. This is 59 00:02:45,240 --> 00:02:48,520 Speaker 1: strictly who do I think has the best chance to 60 00:02:48,600 --> 00:02:50,880 Speaker 1: get all the way to the lari Obrian Trophy, not 61 00:02:50,960 --> 00:02:54,919 Speaker 1: to win one series, not even to win two series. Strictly, 62 00:02:55,360 --> 00:02:59,120 Speaker 1: how likely I think these teams are to hoist the 63 00:02:59,200 --> 00:03:03,440 Speaker 1: Larry O'Brian Trophy. Our first tier is our top tier contenders. 64 00:03:04,040 --> 00:03:05,960 Speaker 1: These are teams that are so good and that have 65 00:03:06,080 --> 00:03:10,359 Speaker 1: so much in the way of expectations that anything involving 66 00:03:10,360 --> 00:03:13,200 Speaker 1: them losing before even getting to the finals would be 67 00:03:13,240 --> 00:03:17,800 Speaker 1: considered a complete failure. These are teams that are championship 68 00:03:18,480 --> 00:03:23,079 Speaker 1: or bust. Starting with number one, the Boston Celtics have 69 00:03:23,200 --> 00:03:25,480 Speaker 1: been number one all year for me. They are currently 70 00:03:25,520 --> 00:03:29,200 Speaker 1: at DraftKings at plus two thirty five to win the title. 71 00:03:29,240 --> 00:03:32,639 Speaker 1: They've actually been supplanted as the favorite on DraftKings. Now 72 00:03:32,639 --> 00:03:35,280 Speaker 1: the Thunder at plus two twenty five are the favorites. 73 00:03:35,600 --> 00:03:38,640 Speaker 1: I don't like that value for OKC. I think it's 74 00:03:38,680 --> 00:03:41,400 Speaker 1: far more likely that OKAC gets beat in the West 75 00:03:41,440 --> 00:03:44,160 Speaker 1: than Boston gets beat in the East, and I'd pick 76 00:03:44,200 --> 00:03:46,720 Speaker 1: Boston over OKC head to head. So like, in terms 77 00:03:46,760 --> 00:03:49,320 Speaker 1: of the betting odds, I don't think that's a good 78 00:03:49,360 --> 00:03:52,560 Speaker 1: price for OKAC, but they are currently the favorite to 79 00:03:52,600 --> 00:03:55,040 Speaker 1: win the title. Boston is the clear number one pick 80 00:03:55,120 --> 00:03:57,760 Speaker 1: to me because they have the hardest weakness to exploit. 81 00:03:58,280 --> 00:04:01,320 Speaker 1: They don't actually have a personnel weakness really at all. 82 00:04:01,480 --> 00:04:04,760 Speaker 1: They just have a personality weakness. Their top six in 83 00:04:04,840 --> 00:04:09,080 Speaker 1: offense defense and defensive rating or defensive rebounding, their top 84 00:04:09,120 --> 00:04:12,600 Speaker 1: ten paint defense, their top five three point line defense, 85 00:04:12,600 --> 00:04:14,640 Speaker 1: and Cleaning the Glass currently has them as the number 86 00:04:14,640 --> 00:04:18,960 Speaker 1: one transition defense in the NBA. Their weaknesses they occasionally 87 00:04:19,000 --> 00:04:21,960 Speaker 1: play really shitty basketball in the regular season, and that 88 00:04:22,040 --> 00:04:23,560 Speaker 1: to me has so much more to do with just 89 00:04:23,640 --> 00:04:26,960 Speaker 1: malaise than anything else. They have a one to twenty 90 00:04:27,000 --> 00:04:29,920 Speaker 1: three offensive rating against the top ten teams in point 91 00:04:29,920 --> 00:04:33,320 Speaker 1: differential according to Cleaning the Glass that ranks second in 92 00:04:33,360 --> 00:04:37,000 Speaker 1: the NBA, and they're also seventh in defense in those matchups. 93 00:04:37,440 --> 00:04:39,800 Speaker 1: In terms of win loss in those matchups, they have 94 00:04:39,800 --> 00:04:42,840 Speaker 1: a sixty nine win percentage against teams in the top 95 00:04:42,880 --> 00:04:45,440 Speaker 1: ten and point differential that ranks number one in the NBA. 96 00:04:45,560 --> 00:04:49,479 Speaker 1: Even over the Thunder, even over the Calves, I even 97 00:04:49,480 --> 00:04:51,640 Speaker 1: think they've been feeling a little bit of like a 98 00:04:51,680 --> 00:04:53,800 Speaker 1: reverse version of what the Calves got in the early 99 00:04:53,800 --> 00:04:56,400 Speaker 1: part of the year, where like several Celtics are shooting 100 00:04:56,480 --> 00:04:59,200 Speaker 1: well below their norms from three, and I think that's 101 00:04:59,200 --> 00:05:02,159 Speaker 1: something that will normally over the tail end of the season. 102 00:05:02,200 --> 00:05:03,760 Speaker 1: To me, they're better than the Thunder for a few 103 00:05:03,839 --> 00:05:06,800 Speaker 1: key reasons. Number one, I think Jason Tatum has gotten 104 00:05:06,839 --> 00:05:08,960 Speaker 1: a lot better and is now on the same tier 105 00:05:09,279 --> 00:05:11,360 Speaker 1: as a guy like Shay Gilders Alexander, So I don't 106 00:05:11,360 --> 00:05:14,760 Speaker 1: see the Thunder is having some substantial star advantage like 107 00:05:14,839 --> 00:05:16,919 Speaker 1: I looked at it as a problem for the Celtics 108 00:05:16,960 --> 00:05:20,080 Speaker 1: in years past. I also, too, think the Celtics are 109 00:05:20,080 --> 00:05:24,200 Speaker 1: far more experienced down the roster in the playoff setting 110 00:05:24,480 --> 00:05:26,200 Speaker 1: than OKAC is. Later on, I'm going to talk to 111 00:05:26,240 --> 00:05:28,320 Speaker 1: you guys about age and I'm gonna list some of 112 00:05:28,320 --> 00:05:30,880 Speaker 1: the ages of some of the players on both rosters, 113 00:05:30,920 --> 00:05:33,080 Speaker 1: and you guys will get a better feel for that. 114 00:05:33,240 --> 00:05:35,520 Speaker 1: But I do think experience is a big advantage for Boston. 115 00:05:35,560 --> 00:05:40,679 Speaker 1: And then three, I think Boston's offense translates much better 116 00:05:40,680 --> 00:05:44,479 Speaker 1: to the postseason than Oklahoma City's offense does, and I 117 00:05:44,520 --> 00:05:47,160 Speaker 1: think the gap between these two teams defensively in the 118 00:05:47,160 --> 00:05:52,000 Speaker 1: playoff context is substantially smaller. So I think again, I 119 00:05:52,000 --> 00:05:55,320 Speaker 1: think Boston, what we're seeing from them, what we know 120 00:05:55,480 --> 00:05:57,920 Speaker 1: they can do is more reliable in the playoff context, 121 00:05:57,960 --> 00:06:01,400 Speaker 1: and what we've seen from ok Oklahoma City, they're versatile too. 122 00:06:01,400 --> 00:06:04,080 Speaker 1: They can protect the rim, they have great switching looks. 123 00:06:04,400 --> 00:06:07,400 Speaker 1: They have big lineups, they have small lineups. They have 124 00:06:07,600 --> 00:06:10,600 Speaker 1: more players that can initiate offense than anyone in the league. 125 00:06:10,640 --> 00:06:12,200 Speaker 1: But at the same time, they have a ton of 126 00:06:12,279 --> 00:06:14,960 Speaker 1: dudes who can play off ball as play finishers, and 127 00:06:15,040 --> 00:06:16,920 Speaker 1: I think they have an easier path through the conference. 128 00:06:17,400 --> 00:06:20,160 Speaker 1: I think Boston is the clear cut championship favorite at 129 00:06:20,160 --> 00:06:22,479 Speaker 1: this point. I think a lot of the stuff we've 130 00:06:22,520 --> 00:06:24,599 Speaker 1: seen from them that's looked bad at times this year 131 00:06:24,640 --> 00:06:27,360 Speaker 1: is mostly just dealing with the eighty two game regular 132 00:06:27,400 --> 00:06:30,080 Speaker 1: season after you've already won the trophy, and again, all 133 00:06:30,080 --> 00:06:31,880 Speaker 1: these other teams that we're talking about are just dealing 134 00:06:31,920 --> 00:06:34,839 Speaker 1: with another level of urgency. The Celtics are still a 135 00:06:34,839 --> 00:06:37,320 Speaker 1: clear Number one for me. Number two the Oklahoma City 136 00:06:37,320 --> 00:06:41,200 Speaker 1: Thunder on DraftKings at plus two twenty five to win 137 00:06:41,240 --> 00:06:43,880 Speaker 1: the title. The main point of optimism for me with 138 00:06:43,880 --> 00:06:45,880 Speaker 1: the Thunder is their defense. They have the best defense 139 00:06:45,880 --> 00:06:48,600 Speaker 1: in the league and it isn't particularly close. The gap 140 00:06:48,640 --> 00:06:51,400 Speaker 1: between their defensive rating and the second best defensive rating 141 00:06:51,600 --> 00:06:53,400 Speaker 1: is the same as the gap between the second best 142 00:06:53,440 --> 00:06:57,719 Speaker 1: defensive rating and the tenth best defensive rating in the NBA. 143 00:06:57,880 --> 00:07:00,680 Speaker 1: They defend well in every single area like Austin does, 144 00:07:01,240 --> 00:07:03,760 Speaker 1: but they also force a ton of turnovers and get 145 00:07:03,800 --> 00:07:06,560 Speaker 1: out and transition off of those turnovers, which is something 146 00:07:06,560 --> 00:07:09,120 Speaker 1: that Boston doesn't. The only thing that don't do well 147 00:07:09,160 --> 00:07:12,440 Speaker 1: on defense is they're not a good defensive rebounding team. 148 00:07:13,040 --> 00:07:15,400 Speaker 1: But that is just a real asset that they have 149 00:07:15,480 --> 00:07:17,800 Speaker 1: in any playoff series, the best defense in the league, 150 00:07:17,800 --> 00:07:20,119 Speaker 1: that's going to provide a lot of problems for teams 151 00:07:20,120 --> 00:07:21,720 Speaker 1: to deal with. I also think Oklahoma City has a 152 00:07:21,760 --> 00:07:25,600 Speaker 1: much better primary weapon to deploy on stars in terms 153 00:07:25,680 --> 00:07:27,600 Speaker 1: of Lou Dort, who I think is a top tier 154 00:07:27,640 --> 00:07:30,320 Speaker 1: guy in that regard and just like a real asset 155 00:07:30,360 --> 00:07:31,480 Speaker 1: to just be able to put him on the other 156 00:07:31,480 --> 00:07:33,760 Speaker 1: team's best player and just know for a fact that 157 00:07:33,800 --> 00:07:35,840 Speaker 1: he's going to make that guy uncomfortable. He does it 158 00:07:35,880 --> 00:07:39,360 Speaker 1: against guards like Donovan Mitchell and BIG's of big old 159 00:07:39,360 --> 00:07:42,120 Speaker 1: wings like Luka Doncic, like he's just as versatile as 160 00:07:42,120 --> 00:07:45,320 Speaker 1: they get, just a huge weapon for that defense, and 161 00:07:45,360 --> 00:07:48,720 Speaker 1: statistically their offense is excellent. Their sixth and overall offensive rating, 162 00:07:48,720 --> 00:07:51,080 Speaker 1: their fifth and half court offensive rating, and cleaning the 163 00:07:51,080 --> 00:07:54,400 Speaker 1: Glass has them is the fourth best transition offense in 164 00:07:54,440 --> 00:07:57,320 Speaker 1: the league. Shay is still the substantial favorite to win 165 00:07:57,360 --> 00:08:01,440 Speaker 1: the MVP on DraftKings right now, so every metric would 166 00:08:01,480 --> 00:08:03,720 Speaker 1: tell us that Oklahoma City is the best team in 167 00:08:03,760 --> 00:08:06,400 Speaker 1: the league. Again, like I mentioned earlier, even DraftKings has 168 00:08:06,440 --> 00:08:09,080 Speaker 1: them as the championship favorite. So why do I have 169 00:08:09,120 --> 00:08:12,280 Speaker 1: Boston ahead of them? I think Oklahoma City's dominance in 170 00:08:12,320 --> 00:08:16,440 Speaker 1: this particular regular season is a bit inflated over their 171 00:08:16,440 --> 00:08:20,200 Speaker 1: playoff viability. I have consistently talked about over the years 172 00:08:20,560 --> 00:08:25,200 Speaker 1: about how young super athletic teams have a certain impact 173 00:08:25,240 --> 00:08:29,119 Speaker 1: in the regular season that older veteran teams struggle to match. 174 00:08:29,360 --> 00:08:32,040 Speaker 1: It gets even more exaggerated by the fact that in 175 00:08:32,040 --> 00:08:34,120 Speaker 1: the regular season you don't have as much time to prep. 176 00:08:34,600 --> 00:08:37,240 Speaker 1: When you run into OKC for a single game on 177 00:08:37,280 --> 00:08:40,480 Speaker 1: a random Tuesday in February, it can catch you off guard. 178 00:08:40,640 --> 00:08:43,520 Speaker 1: You can get your butt kicked, especially when their defense 179 00:08:43,600 --> 00:08:48,360 Speaker 1: is built on aggression enforcing mistakes. Every single one of 180 00:08:48,400 --> 00:08:51,439 Speaker 1: their top eight minutes per game guys in their rotation 181 00:08:52,000 --> 00:08:55,840 Speaker 1: is twenty six or younger. Three of them are twenty 182 00:08:55,960 --> 00:08:59,320 Speaker 1: three or younger. Here's the Celtics as a counter example 183 00:08:59,520 --> 00:09:03,800 Speaker 1: of their time eight rotation players. Only Jason Tatum is 184 00:09:03,840 --> 00:09:07,839 Speaker 1: twenty six or younger, and he's exactly twenty six. Three 185 00:09:07,880 --> 00:09:10,800 Speaker 1: of their top eight are in their thirties. Two of 186 00:09:10,840 --> 00:09:14,840 Speaker 1: them are over age thirty four. You think those guys 187 00:09:14,960 --> 00:09:19,040 Speaker 1: are gonna bring the same level of nightly intensity that 188 00:09:19,120 --> 00:09:22,840 Speaker 1: Oklahoma City is bringing this year, of course not. When 189 00:09:22,880 --> 00:09:25,600 Speaker 1: you get to the postseason, two things happen that limit 190 00:09:25,640 --> 00:09:31,000 Speaker 1: the effectiveness of this hillacious style that Oklahoma City is playing. One, 191 00:09:31,040 --> 00:09:34,280 Speaker 1: all of the Vets start matching the level of intensity 192 00:09:34,280 --> 00:09:36,280 Speaker 1: that the young guys bring. Now, the young guys are 193 00:09:36,320 --> 00:09:40,480 Speaker 1: still more athletic, but the gap shrinks as the Vets 194 00:09:40,600 --> 00:09:45,000 Speaker 1: engage for urgent basketball. And then two, you get to 195 00:09:45,000 --> 00:09:48,319 Speaker 1: prepare for several days for the matchup, and then even 196 00:09:48,320 --> 00:09:50,880 Speaker 1: within the matchup, you get two weeks to try to 197 00:09:50,880 --> 00:09:54,440 Speaker 1: solve the problem. Simple example. Last year, the thunder were 198 00:09:54,520 --> 00:09:59,000 Speaker 1: also a dominant, forcing turnovers, get out and transition type 199 00:09:59,000 --> 00:10:02,880 Speaker 1: of team. Four regular season matchups against the MAVs, they 200 00:10:02,920 --> 00:10:06,600 Speaker 1: force sixteen turnovers per game and scored twenty four point 201 00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:10,240 Speaker 1: three points off of those turnovers in the regular season. 202 00:10:11,240 --> 00:10:14,839 Speaker 1: In the four losses to Dallas in the postseason, they 203 00:10:14,920 --> 00:10:18,000 Speaker 1: only forced fourteen turnovers per game, and they only scored 204 00:10:18,120 --> 00:10:21,640 Speaker 1: eighteen points off of them, more than six points less. 205 00:10:22,000 --> 00:10:25,800 Speaker 1: That makes a substantial difference when you're splitting tiny margins 206 00:10:25,840 --> 00:10:31,080 Speaker 1: between two great teams. The problem they present the confusion, 207 00:10:31,679 --> 00:10:36,120 Speaker 1: the chaos, the transition attack. The effectiveness goes down in 208 00:10:36,120 --> 00:10:38,520 Speaker 1: the postseason because the vets are more up for it 209 00:10:38,960 --> 00:10:41,680 Speaker 1: and teams are more prepared for it. So the question 210 00:10:41,800 --> 00:10:45,720 Speaker 1: is how good are the thunder Really. They're awesome. They're 211 00:10:45,800 --> 00:10:48,520 Speaker 1: top tier contender. I think they're the second most likely 212 00:10:48,559 --> 00:10:51,080 Speaker 1: to win the title. But the reality of who they 213 00:10:51,080 --> 00:10:54,719 Speaker 1: are as a team is somewhere between what they were 214 00:10:54,800 --> 00:10:58,000 Speaker 1: last year against Dallas and what they are now, somewhere 215 00:10:58,000 --> 00:11:00,920 Speaker 1: in the middle there, and I think that that puts 216 00:11:00,960 --> 00:11:04,480 Speaker 1: them firmly below the Boston Celtics. I think the biggest 217 00:11:04,480 --> 00:11:07,640 Speaker 1: problem they'll face in the postseason is role players making shots. 218 00:11:08,200 --> 00:11:10,520 Speaker 1: Isaiah Joe is the only player to hit forty percent 219 00:11:10,559 --> 00:11:14,600 Speaker 1: of his threes against Dallas last year. Cason Wallace, Jaylen Williams, 220 00:11:15,360 --> 00:11:18,920 Speaker 1: Lou Dort, Aaron Wiggins, Chet Holmgren. That's Jaylen Williams, backup 221 00:11:18,920 --> 00:11:21,960 Speaker 1: center Lou Dort, Aaron Wiggins, and Chet Holmgren all shot 222 00:11:22,040 --> 00:11:25,040 Speaker 1: thirty three percent. Are worse in that series from three 223 00:11:25,960 --> 00:11:28,360 Speaker 1: when they've lost games. This year, it's been a similar issue. 224 00:11:28,640 --> 00:11:31,800 Speaker 1: The offense bogs down nobody but SGA can hit a shot. 225 00:11:32,040 --> 00:11:34,280 Speaker 1: To be clear, if they shoot the ball well across 226 00:11:34,280 --> 00:11:36,960 Speaker 1: the board, their defense is so good they'll win the title. 227 00:11:37,720 --> 00:11:39,760 Speaker 1: I'm just skeptical that they'll shoot the ball well enough. 228 00:11:39,800 --> 00:11:42,240 Speaker 1: They're seventeenth and three point percentage this year their bottom 229 00:11:42,280 --> 00:11:45,360 Speaker 1: ten and spot up efficiency according to Synergy. Teams are 230 00:11:45,400 --> 00:11:47,360 Speaker 1: going to pack the paint, They're going to dare other 231 00:11:47,400 --> 00:11:49,800 Speaker 1: guys to make shots and shay to try to score 232 00:11:49,800 --> 00:11:51,760 Speaker 1: a million points. That is the one thing that I 233 00:11:51,760 --> 00:11:54,800 Speaker 1: think makes them a lot more vulnerable than their record 234 00:11:54,800 --> 00:11:57,920 Speaker 1: would lead you to believe, if that makes sense. Moving 235 00:11:57,920 --> 00:12:02,800 Speaker 1: on to our second tier, calling this the appropriate fear tier. 236 00:12:03,600 --> 00:12:06,480 Speaker 1: These are teams that have pretty high expectations, Like if 237 00:12:06,480 --> 00:12:08,880 Speaker 1: any of these teams lost a first round series, it 238 00:12:08,880 --> 00:12:12,160 Speaker 1: would be considered a massive failure. But at the same time, 239 00:12:12,200 --> 00:12:15,599 Speaker 1: they're obviously aware that Boston and OKAC are gonna be 240 00:12:15,679 --> 00:12:18,200 Speaker 1: really tough challenges for them that it's an uphill climb there. 241 00:12:19,240 --> 00:12:22,160 Speaker 1: But on the flip side, I think both OKC and 242 00:12:22,360 --> 00:12:26,920 Speaker 1: Boston should have an appropriate fear of these teams and 243 00:12:26,960 --> 00:12:30,439 Speaker 1: the reality that they could potentially upset them. I also 244 00:12:30,480 --> 00:12:35,200 Speaker 1: think all three of these teams are particularly particularly vulnerable 245 00:12:35,280 --> 00:12:38,640 Speaker 1: to matchups that they probably need to avoid to get 246 00:12:38,640 --> 00:12:41,600 Speaker 1: where they want to go. Well, I'm actually gonna name 247 00:12:41,600 --> 00:12:43,360 Speaker 1: all three tiers here for an exit so I can 248 00:12:43,520 --> 00:12:46,200 Speaker 1: demonstrate the matchup weakness. The three teams I have in 249 00:12:46,240 --> 00:12:49,240 Speaker 1: this tier are the Nuggets, the Calves, and then the Lakers. 250 00:12:50,160 --> 00:12:53,040 Speaker 1: To me, if the Nuggets see Minnesota, they're probably gonna lose. 251 00:12:53,400 --> 00:12:56,400 Speaker 1: If the Calves see Boston, I think they're probably gonna lose. 252 00:12:56,800 --> 00:12:59,360 Speaker 1: And if the Lakers see the Nuggets, I think they're 253 00:12:59,360 --> 00:13:01,160 Speaker 1: probably going to lose. And by the way, we're gonna 254 00:13:01,160 --> 00:13:02,720 Speaker 1: get further into this when we get to the Lakers. 255 00:13:03,080 --> 00:13:05,720 Speaker 1: They're the one team in this entire list that is 256 00:13:05,880 --> 00:13:09,200 Speaker 1: like I don't feel very strongly about because they're just 257 00:13:09,240 --> 00:13:11,480 Speaker 1: kind of loosely thrown in here because we've just seen 258 00:13:11,520 --> 00:13:13,400 Speaker 1: so little of them with Luco, we just don't know 259 00:13:13,440 --> 00:13:15,520 Speaker 1: what they're capable of. We'll talk more about that when 260 00:13:15,559 --> 00:13:18,640 Speaker 1: we get to the Lakers. Number three. The Denver Nuggets 261 00:13:19,080 --> 00:13:22,360 Speaker 1: currently at plus fourteen hundred to win the title on DraftKings, 262 00:13:22,360 --> 00:13:24,240 Speaker 1: one of the best values that I think I see 263 00:13:24,280 --> 00:13:26,760 Speaker 1: on that list. I gave Denver the not here over 264 00:13:26,800 --> 00:13:30,480 Speaker 1: Cleveland for a simple reason. They present an unsolvable problem 265 00:13:30,760 --> 00:13:33,360 Speaker 1: for everyone in the league, including the Celtics and the Thunder, 266 00:13:33,920 --> 00:13:36,080 Speaker 1: which is not something that I think the Calves present. 267 00:13:36,880 --> 00:13:38,920 Speaker 1: Nicole jokicch is far and away the best player in 268 00:13:38,960 --> 00:13:41,120 Speaker 1: the world and a guy that none of these teams 269 00:13:41,120 --> 00:13:43,440 Speaker 1: can really do anything with. Again, we'll talk more about 270 00:13:43,440 --> 00:13:44,679 Speaker 1: the Calves in a minute, but I just don't think 271 00:13:44,720 --> 00:13:47,600 Speaker 1: they present that type of problem. The Nuggets have achieved 272 00:13:47,640 --> 00:13:50,079 Speaker 1: a similar level of unguardability to what they had in 273 00:13:50,120 --> 00:13:52,959 Speaker 1: twenty twenty three, in large part because Jokic got his 274 00:13:53,040 --> 00:13:54,680 Speaker 1: jump shot back in a huge way. He's been one 275 00:13:54,679 --> 00:13:56,520 Speaker 1: of the very best jump shooters in the league this year. 276 00:13:57,480 --> 00:14:00,240 Speaker 1: Here's a simple stat to demonstrate the difference between this 277 00:14:00,320 --> 00:14:04,000 Speaker 1: year's Nuggets offense and previous years. This year, the Nuggets 278 00:14:04,000 --> 00:14:07,160 Speaker 1: have a one to twenty six point one offensive rating 279 00:14:07,200 --> 00:14:10,199 Speaker 1: with Nikole Jokic on the floor. Last year that number 280 00:14:10,240 --> 00:14:14,640 Speaker 1: was one twenty two point four, so a substantial drop there. 281 00:14:14,760 --> 00:14:16,880 Speaker 1: Even the year they won the title it was only 282 00:14:16,920 --> 00:14:19,360 Speaker 1: one twenty four point two. Think about how crazy that is. 283 00:14:19,600 --> 00:14:22,640 Speaker 1: The Nuggets are scoring two points better per one hundred 284 00:14:22,640 --> 00:14:25,480 Speaker 1: possessions then they did the year they won the title 285 00:14:25,840 --> 00:14:28,360 Speaker 1: with Nikole Jokich on the floor, even with less shooting 286 00:14:28,400 --> 00:14:32,040 Speaker 1: around him than ever before. The main weakness with Denver 287 00:14:32,120 --> 00:14:35,880 Speaker 1: is their defense. Their sixteenth in defensive rating, twenty eighth 288 00:14:35,960 --> 00:14:38,880 Speaker 1: in transition defense according to Clinton the last twelfth, and 289 00:14:38,920 --> 00:14:42,880 Speaker 1: half court defense, seventeenth in clutch defense. They also give 290 00:14:42,960 --> 00:14:45,360 Speaker 1: up the fifth most points per game in the paint 291 00:14:45,560 --> 00:14:49,440 Speaker 1: and the seventh most made threes per game. So that's 292 00:14:49,480 --> 00:14:52,240 Speaker 1: obviously where the hole is right now. It's a similar 293 00:14:52,240 --> 00:14:54,240 Speaker 1: idea to what we were talking about with OKC. This 294 00:14:54,400 --> 00:14:57,600 Speaker 1: is an older veteran team that isn't going to bring 295 00:14:57,640 --> 00:15:00,960 Speaker 1: the same level of intensity night tonight. Nuggets will be 296 00:15:01,040 --> 00:15:03,880 Speaker 1: a better defense when they get to the postseason. The 297 00:15:03,960 --> 00:15:07,760 Speaker 1: question is how much better will they be good enough? 298 00:15:08,280 --> 00:15:10,440 Speaker 1: But if they can leverage their defense enough to unlock 299 00:15:10,480 --> 00:15:14,440 Speaker 1: their borderline unguardable offense with Jokic, they absolutely can win 300 00:15:14,440 --> 00:15:15,920 Speaker 1: the whole thing, and that's why I have them all 301 00:15:15,960 --> 00:15:18,040 Speaker 1: the way up at number three. Again. I do worry 302 00:15:18,080 --> 00:15:20,920 Speaker 1: about them for that Minnesota matchup, though, that's one that 303 00:15:20,960 --> 00:15:23,120 Speaker 1: I think they're yet to overcome and have some serious 304 00:15:23,160 --> 00:15:26,480 Speaker 1: issues with Number four, the Cleveland Cavaliers. They're currently at 305 00:15:26,480 --> 00:15:29,200 Speaker 1: plus seven hundred to win the title. According to DraftKings. 306 00:15:29,600 --> 00:15:32,640 Speaker 1: This is a really, really good basketball team by every measure, right. 307 00:15:32,840 --> 00:15:36,600 Speaker 1: They're producing similar levels of insane offense to what Denver's doing, 308 00:15:36,920 --> 00:15:39,560 Speaker 1: and they're a very respectable defense, albeit not in the 309 00:15:39,560 --> 00:15:42,440 Speaker 1: same stratosphere as Boston and OKC. I think part of 310 00:15:42,480 --> 00:15:44,200 Speaker 1: the reason why they're still undervalued by a lot of 311 00:15:44,200 --> 00:15:46,680 Speaker 1: people is that Darius Garland and Evan Mobley kind of 312 00:15:46,680 --> 00:15:49,160 Speaker 1: have a reputation right they appeared to be the weak 313 00:15:49,200 --> 00:15:52,760 Speaker 1: points in their previous playoff exits. I just think both 314 00:15:52,760 --> 00:15:55,320 Speaker 1: of those guys are substantially better players now, especially Garland, 315 00:15:55,320 --> 00:15:56,840 Speaker 1: who has become one of my favorite players to watch 316 00:15:56,840 --> 00:15:59,240 Speaker 1: in the league and has a remarkable ability to generate 317 00:15:59,360 --> 00:16:02,760 Speaker 1: dribble penetrate. The main reasons I'm lower on the Calves 318 00:16:02,800 --> 00:16:06,160 Speaker 1: than most people are is one. They also rely a 319 00:16:06,160 --> 00:16:08,840 Speaker 1: good amount enforcing turnovers and getting out in transition, which, 320 00:16:08,880 --> 00:16:10,960 Speaker 1: like we talked about earlier, can be less effective when 321 00:16:10,960 --> 00:16:13,600 Speaker 1: you get to May. In June and then two. They 322 00:16:13,680 --> 00:16:16,800 Speaker 1: shot the ball preposterously well to start the year. I 323 00:16:16,800 --> 00:16:19,160 Speaker 1: remember at one point a month or so back, I 324 00:16:19,200 --> 00:16:20,440 Speaker 1: looked at and I was like, oh my god, they're 325 00:16:20,440 --> 00:16:24,560 Speaker 1: shooting forty five percent on transition threes, Like that's insane. 326 00:16:25,520 --> 00:16:29,400 Speaker 1: Since January twelfth, the Calves are eleventh and three point percentage, 327 00:16:29,880 --> 00:16:31,720 Speaker 1: and as they're hot shooting has come back a bit, 328 00:16:32,360 --> 00:16:35,800 Speaker 1: their defense has slipped. They're now only eleventh and defense 329 00:16:35,840 --> 00:16:39,240 Speaker 1: in that span, twelfth in points off of opponent turnovers 330 00:16:39,240 --> 00:16:41,840 Speaker 1: in that span, and they're just eleven and six in 331 00:16:41,840 --> 00:16:44,880 Speaker 1: their last seventeen games, which is really good. I just 332 00:16:44,880 --> 00:16:47,360 Speaker 1: don't view them as the type of world beating team 333 00:16:47,440 --> 00:16:49,520 Speaker 1: that they were early in the year when they were 334 00:16:49,560 --> 00:16:52,480 Speaker 1: just making every damn three point shot their take. I 335 00:16:52,520 --> 00:16:55,480 Speaker 1: personally think the Calves are destined for a Conference finals 336 00:16:55,520 --> 00:16:58,640 Speaker 1: loss to the Boston Celtics, and I think they're capable 337 00:16:58,680 --> 00:17:01,360 Speaker 1: of losing to in Indiana or Milwaukee or New York 338 00:17:01,440 --> 00:17:04,000 Speaker 1: in round two, although I'd favor them over all three 339 00:17:04,040 --> 00:17:07,400 Speaker 1: of those teams. The case if you're the case for Cleveland. 340 00:17:07,440 --> 00:17:11,400 Speaker 1: Beating Boston is having home court advantage, jumping up two 341 00:17:11,400 --> 00:17:13,840 Speaker 1: to Oho and then stealing game three or Game four 342 00:17:13,880 --> 00:17:16,439 Speaker 1: in Boston and just putting them too far behind the 343 00:17:16,440 --> 00:17:17,880 Speaker 1: eight ball to be able to come back and win 344 00:17:17,920 --> 00:17:20,240 Speaker 1: that series. But we've just seen time and time again, 345 00:17:20,280 --> 00:17:24,359 Speaker 1: even as recently as their last matchup, Boston just gets 346 00:17:24,359 --> 00:17:26,520 Speaker 1: great shots. And if it wasn't for a Donovan Mitchell 347 00:17:26,560 --> 00:17:29,600 Speaker 1: heater in a game where Jalen Brown didn't even play, 348 00:17:29,640 --> 00:17:31,440 Speaker 1: they would have been zero and three against the Celtics 349 00:17:31,440 --> 00:17:32,920 Speaker 1: this year, it just doesn't seem like a team that 350 00:17:32,960 --> 00:17:36,080 Speaker 1: I think they can overcome Number five the Los Angeles 351 00:17:36,119 --> 00:17:39,360 Speaker 1: Lakers plus eighteen hundred on DraftKings right now to win 352 00:17:39,400 --> 00:17:41,119 Speaker 1: the title. Again, I'm kind of just throwing them in 353 00:17:41,119 --> 00:17:43,000 Speaker 1: here at the bottom of this tier because we really 354 00:17:43,080 --> 00:17:45,880 Speaker 1: don't know how good they're going to be. I've seen 355 00:17:45,920 --> 00:17:48,919 Speaker 1: a lot of strong opinions about how bad the Lakers 356 00:17:48,920 --> 00:17:51,960 Speaker 1: are going to be, and it's just not based on 357 00:17:52,160 --> 00:17:55,560 Speaker 1: anything we've actually seen. Every other team we're going to 358 00:17:55,640 --> 00:17:58,520 Speaker 1: cover today, as we've seen a lot of what they're 359 00:17:58,520 --> 00:18:01,560 Speaker 1: going to be, right, everything with the Lakers is conjecture. 360 00:18:02,480 --> 00:18:04,720 Speaker 1: I do think their offense is going to be absolutely amazing. 361 00:18:05,000 --> 00:18:07,920 Speaker 1: That's not something worth overthinking. It's arguably the best combination 362 00:18:08,000 --> 00:18:10,840 Speaker 1: of shot creation and play finishing talent that we've seen 363 00:18:10,920 --> 00:18:15,000 Speaker 1: since the twenty eighteen Warriors. The two primary shot creators, 364 00:18:15,040 --> 00:18:17,720 Speaker 1: and Lebron and Luca are two of the best playoff 365 00:18:17,760 --> 00:18:21,200 Speaker 1: shot creators we've ever seen who thrive in the physicality 366 00:18:21,200 --> 00:18:24,840 Speaker 1: of that environment. They also require very similar types of defenders, 367 00:18:25,040 --> 00:18:27,520 Speaker 1: which I think will test the defensive depth of teams. 368 00:18:27,520 --> 00:18:31,120 Speaker 1: At the forward spot. I would recommend not overthinking the offense. 369 00:18:31,400 --> 00:18:34,360 Speaker 1: They're going to score a million points. Defense is where 370 00:18:34,400 --> 00:18:37,120 Speaker 1: it gets tricky. The Lakers had an eleven to two 371 00:18:37,200 --> 00:18:39,720 Speaker 1: stretch right before Luca joined the team where they were 372 00:18:39,800 --> 00:18:41,960 Speaker 1: literally the number one defense in the league, and they 373 00:18:41,960 --> 00:18:45,840 Speaker 1: put forward several impressive defensive efforts against teams like Boston, 374 00:18:46,400 --> 00:18:50,359 Speaker 1: the Knicks, the Clippers. They have more good defensive players 375 00:18:50,400 --> 00:18:53,919 Speaker 1: than people think. They turned D'Angelo Russell into Dorian Finney Smith. 376 00:18:54,240 --> 00:18:56,640 Speaker 1: Jared Vanderbilt is one of the better defenders in the league. 377 00:18:56,800 --> 00:18:59,600 Speaker 1: Lebron James, as he's become engaged with this new group, 378 00:18:59,600 --> 00:19:02,080 Speaker 1: has been a good defender. Gabe is a good defender 379 00:19:02,080 --> 00:19:05,080 Speaker 1: at the guard spot. Even a guy like Austin does 380 00:19:05,119 --> 00:19:08,560 Speaker 1: his job, even though he can get into some situations 381 00:19:08,600 --> 00:19:10,639 Speaker 1: early in the year where he's asked to guard the 382 00:19:10,640 --> 00:19:12,240 Speaker 1: other team's best player and it's not a good fit 383 00:19:12,280 --> 00:19:15,359 Speaker 1: for him, but he as a subsidiary defender can be 384 00:19:15,440 --> 00:19:18,359 Speaker 1: just fine. They've started doing a much better job of 385 00:19:18,400 --> 00:19:21,400 Speaker 1: executing JJ redicks one through five switching scheme. I think 386 00:19:21,440 --> 00:19:24,359 Speaker 1: they have a good defensive punch that's been clearly demonstrated 387 00:19:24,359 --> 00:19:27,400 Speaker 1: over the course of the last month. But you're now 388 00:19:27,440 --> 00:19:31,560 Speaker 1: adding in forty ish minutes of Luka Doncic in the playoffs, 389 00:19:32,119 --> 00:19:34,960 Speaker 1: and he's a guy that can be downright damaging to 390 00:19:35,040 --> 00:19:38,760 Speaker 1: a defense in certain matchups, specifically teams that can really 391 00:19:38,800 --> 00:19:43,040 Speaker 1: space the floor. It will be JJ Reddick's responsibility to 392 00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:46,400 Speaker 1: try to find ways to deploy him properly in each 393 00:19:46,400 --> 00:19:50,159 Speaker 1: playoff matchup. So here's the big question. With Luca in 394 00:19:50,200 --> 00:19:53,880 Speaker 1: the picture. Will the Lakers be a terrible defense, an 395 00:19:53,920 --> 00:19:56,080 Speaker 1: average defense, or a great defense. I don't think they'll 396 00:19:56,119 --> 00:19:59,040 Speaker 1: be great. It's too much of a downgrade getting forty 397 00:19:59,040 --> 00:20:01,720 Speaker 1: minutes of Luke on the instead of two way wings, right, 398 00:20:02,280 --> 00:20:04,040 Speaker 1: But I don't think they'll be terrible either. Like I 399 00:20:04,080 --> 00:20:06,920 Speaker 1: was arguing with Carson Breber from Nerd Sessh on their 400 00:20:06,960 --> 00:20:08,480 Speaker 1: show the other day, and like he thinks they're gonna 401 00:20:08,480 --> 00:20:10,280 Speaker 1: be a bottom ten defense. I disagree. I think they're 402 00:20:10,280 --> 00:20:14,280 Speaker 1: gonna be a middle ten defense. They have too many 403 00:20:14,280 --> 00:20:17,280 Speaker 1: good defensive players to just be a bad defensive team. 404 00:20:17,640 --> 00:20:19,880 Speaker 1: But if they can get to the point where they're 405 00:20:19,920 --> 00:20:23,000 Speaker 1: an upper middle team, like in that eleven to fifteen 406 00:20:23,160 --> 00:20:25,840 Speaker 1: range on the defensive end of the floor, that's where 407 00:20:25,880 --> 00:20:27,560 Speaker 1: I think they have a good enough offense that they 408 00:20:27,560 --> 00:20:30,440 Speaker 1: can be a legitimate championship contender. My main concerns are 409 00:20:30,440 --> 00:20:33,320 Speaker 1: matchup related. I think they really match up well with OKC. 410 00:20:33,960 --> 00:20:36,520 Speaker 1: Lou Dort can only guarden one of Luca and Lebron, 411 00:20:36,760 --> 00:20:39,640 Speaker 1: and the Lakers are just so much bigger and stronger 412 00:20:39,640 --> 00:20:42,120 Speaker 1: on the perimeter. I think it's a real advantage for them. 413 00:20:42,680 --> 00:20:44,960 Speaker 1: I also think Luca and Lebron are great counters to 414 00:20:45,000 --> 00:20:48,760 Speaker 1: Oklahoma City's aggressive, turnover forcing defense, like they can get 415 00:20:48,760 --> 00:20:50,720 Speaker 1: the ball across the court to guys that get their 416 00:20:50,720 --> 00:20:54,080 Speaker 1: defense into rotation. But I think they match up really 417 00:20:54,119 --> 00:20:58,760 Speaker 1: poorly with Denver and really poorly with Boston Denver because 418 00:20:58,760 --> 00:21:01,119 Speaker 1: they will have a world of trouble with Jokic and 419 00:21:01,240 --> 00:21:04,000 Speaker 1: Boston because they'll be able to actually space the floor 420 00:21:04,119 --> 00:21:07,760 Speaker 1: enough to where Luca's lack of lateral quickness will be 421 00:21:07,760 --> 00:21:10,320 Speaker 1: a huge problem. But even within the context of those matchups, 422 00:21:10,400 --> 00:21:12,879 Speaker 1: or the OKC matchup or matchups with teams we have 423 00:21:12,960 --> 00:21:14,920 Speaker 1: further down on this list, I don't really have a 424 00:21:14,920 --> 00:21:16,720 Speaker 1: strong opinion on anything because we just need to see 425 00:21:16,760 --> 00:21:18,880 Speaker 1: more of this new look Lakers team playing basketball. Last 426 00:21:18,880 --> 00:21:21,359 Speaker 1: note on the Lakers two injuries. Talked about this the 427 00:21:21,440 --> 00:21:24,120 Speaker 1: other day after they lost to the Jazz. If they 428 00:21:24,160 --> 00:21:27,600 Speaker 1: lose Jackson Hayes, if they lose a Dorian Finney Smith, 429 00:21:28,280 --> 00:21:31,679 Speaker 1: they could be in a real rough spot because all 430 00:21:31,720 --> 00:21:34,440 Speaker 1: of a sudden, they're gonna have to play Vando or 431 00:21:34,720 --> 00:21:38,640 Speaker 1: Christian KloCo or Alex Lynn at all times, and if 432 00:21:38,640 --> 00:21:40,399 Speaker 1: one of those guys is on the floor, it allows 433 00:21:40,440 --> 00:21:42,479 Speaker 1: teams to park a rim protector under the basket, make 434 00:21:42,520 --> 00:21:45,119 Speaker 1: them a jump shooting team, which can bog down their offense. 435 00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:48,240 Speaker 1: So they kind of have a narrow matchup matchup kind 436 00:21:48,240 --> 00:21:50,600 Speaker 1: of pathway, and they kind of have a narrow injury pathway. 437 00:21:50,960 --> 00:21:53,520 Speaker 1: But I don't overthink it. They're gonna score a million points. 438 00:21:53,560 --> 00:21:55,800 Speaker 1: They've been a good defense for a while. I do 439 00:21:55,880 --> 00:21:58,680 Speaker 1: believe they're a legitimate championship contender. The question is where, 440 00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:01,080 Speaker 1: and we'll have a better idea of that once we 441 00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:17,640 Speaker 1: get deeper into the season. On to our third tier, 442 00:22:17,680 --> 00:22:19,360 Speaker 1: I'm going to start moving a little bit faster through 443 00:22:19,359 --> 00:22:20,919 Speaker 1: teams now because we got a bunch to get to. 444 00:22:21,800 --> 00:22:24,760 Speaker 1: This to me is the high variance tier. These are 445 00:22:24,760 --> 00:22:28,399 Speaker 1: teams with real upside, real potential to win the title, 446 00:22:29,119 --> 00:22:32,000 Speaker 1: but that also have glaring weaknesses that could get them 447 00:22:32,040 --> 00:22:34,879 Speaker 1: beat early. These are teams that if they lost in 448 00:22:34,920 --> 00:22:38,159 Speaker 1: the first round, I wouldn't be very surprised, but if 449 00:22:38,160 --> 00:22:40,040 Speaker 1: they made it to the finals I wouldn't be very 450 00:22:40,040 --> 00:22:42,880 Speaker 1: surprised either. They all have huge strengths and huge weaknesses. 451 00:22:42,880 --> 00:22:46,719 Speaker 1: Starting with number six, the New York Knicks at plus 452 00:22:46,760 --> 00:22:49,879 Speaker 1: one thousand to win the title on DraftKings. They're the 453 00:22:49,880 --> 00:22:51,639 Speaker 1: second best offense in the league this year, led by 454 00:22:51,680 --> 00:22:54,919 Speaker 1: Jalen Brunson in superior play, finishing to just about everyone 455 00:22:54,920 --> 00:22:57,520 Speaker 1: in the league. Og McHale and Cat are all just 456 00:22:57,720 --> 00:23:00,359 Speaker 1: absolutely lethal. If you give them an advantage, they'll have 457 00:23:00,400 --> 00:23:02,960 Speaker 1: a brilliant transition attack. They don't force a turn of 458 00:23:03,000 --> 00:23:04,919 Speaker 1: turnovers or get a ton of stops. But when they do, 459 00:23:04,960 --> 00:23:07,000 Speaker 1: they'll get up down up the floor like a blur, 460 00:23:07,119 --> 00:23:10,080 Speaker 1: getting great shots. They've been a mediocre defense all year, 461 00:23:10,080 --> 00:23:13,320 Speaker 1: though they're eighteenth and defensive rating, absolutely brutal against the 462 00:23:13,320 --> 00:23:16,680 Speaker 1: top teams. They're twenty fourth and defensive rating against teams 463 00:23:16,720 --> 00:23:18,439 Speaker 1: in the top ten in point differential, and they're just 464 00:23:18,480 --> 00:23:20,560 Speaker 1: five and eight in those games. And it's the same 465 00:23:20,600 --> 00:23:23,439 Speaker 1: story every time, Teams just picking on Cat, picking on 466 00:23:23,520 --> 00:23:26,560 Speaker 1: Jalen Brunson, sometimes both at the same time, and they 467 00:23:26,560 --> 00:23:28,760 Speaker 1: just get their defense in rotation and they get great shots. 468 00:23:29,040 --> 00:23:31,240 Speaker 1: They give up the highest opponent three point percentage in 469 00:23:31,280 --> 00:23:33,680 Speaker 1: the league and their twentieth and points in the paint 470 00:23:33,680 --> 00:23:35,600 Speaker 1: allowed per game. And we haven't even got to the 471 00:23:35,640 --> 00:23:38,680 Speaker 1: real issue facing them, which is that they appear utterly 472 00:23:38,720 --> 00:23:42,000 Speaker 1: incapable of getting buckets or stops against the Boston Celtics. 473 00:23:42,040 --> 00:23:44,919 Speaker 1: Their offense and their defense falls apart against them. I 474 00:23:45,000 --> 00:23:47,359 Speaker 1: just think it's inevitable that Boston beats New York if 475 00:23:47,359 --> 00:23:49,520 Speaker 1: they ever run into him in the postseason. Their only 476 00:23:49,560 --> 00:23:51,800 Speaker 1: hope is that Mitchell Robinson comes back and gives them 477 00:23:51,800 --> 00:23:54,760 Speaker 1: a viable defensive look that can work against the top 478 00:23:54,760 --> 00:23:56,600 Speaker 1: teams in the league. The reason why I say they 479 00:23:56,640 --> 00:23:59,280 Speaker 1: have real upside though, is pretty simple. There are teams 480 00:23:59,280 --> 00:24:01,359 Speaker 1: that I think give Boss issues. The next team on 481 00:24:01,359 --> 00:24:03,679 Speaker 1: this list is an example. All it takes is Boston 482 00:24:03,680 --> 00:24:06,359 Speaker 1: getting upset and suddenly the Knicks look like a team 483 00:24:06,359 --> 00:24:08,280 Speaker 1: that has real potential to get out of the conference. 484 00:24:08,320 --> 00:24:11,400 Speaker 1: So they obviously have that chance there. I just don't 485 00:24:11,440 --> 00:24:13,080 Speaker 1: think that they can get through Boston if they run 486 00:24:13,080 --> 00:24:16,200 Speaker 1: into them. Number seven, the Milwaukee Bucks plus three thousand 487 00:24:16,200 --> 00:24:18,199 Speaker 1: to win the title on DraftKings much more of a 488 00:24:18,240 --> 00:24:19,960 Speaker 1: threat now that Kyle Kuzma is in the picture. I 489 00:24:19,960 --> 00:24:23,360 Speaker 1: think he gives the Bucks a much more physically imposing frontline. 490 00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:25,840 Speaker 1: The interesting thing for me with the Bucks is I 491 00:24:25,840 --> 00:24:28,720 Speaker 1: think they're the team that gives the Celtics the most 492 00:24:28,760 --> 00:24:32,520 Speaker 1: issues in the conference. They've consistently given them issues over 493 00:24:32,520 --> 00:24:35,240 Speaker 1: the last few years because they can protect the rim well, 494 00:24:35,280 --> 00:24:38,440 Speaker 1: they can bait Boston into jump shooting, and Gianness is 495 00:24:38,560 --> 00:24:42,359 Speaker 1: just this indomitable force, right. But they're an interesting team 496 00:24:42,359 --> 00:24:44,120 Speaker 1: because they're just as likely to lose in the first 497 00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:46,040 Speaker 1: round to somebody as they already even make it to 498 00:24:46,080 --> 00:24:48,600 Speaker 1: a Boston matchup, which again is kind of the theme 499 00:24:48,640 --> 00:24:51,159 Speaker 1: for this tier. Again, these are high variance teams. Wouldn't 500 00:24:51,160 --> 00:24:52,840 Speaker 1: be surprised if they lost in the first round, wouldn't 501 00:24:52,880 --> 00:24:54,800 Speaker 1: be surprised if they made it to the finals. The 502 00:24:54,880 --> 00:24:58,520 Speaker 1: scary thing for the Bucks is they've been frankly terrible 503 00:24:58,800 --> 00:25:01,199 Speaker 1: against the top teams in the league. This year. They 504 00:25:01,240 --> 00:25:03,240 Speaker 1: won the big game against Oklahoma City and the Ncason 505 00:25:03,280 --> 00:25:05,800 Speaker 1: Tournament final, and that was an impressive win. That's the 506 00:25:05,840 --> 00:25:07,760 Speaker 1: one you cling to for upside. But they are just 507 00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:11,080 Speaker 1: two and twelve this year against teams in the top 508 00:25:11,119 --> 00:25:14,480 Speaker 1: ten in point differential, in bottom four in both offense 509 00:25:14,600 --> 00:25:18,920 Speaker 1: and defense in those matchups. Number eight the Minnesota Timberwolves 510 00:25:18,920 --> 00:25:22,399 Speaker 1: plus six thousand. The Timberwolves are an interesting team to 511 00:25:22,400 --> 00:25:24,720 Speaker 1: me because they have these obvious gaping flaws on the 512 00:25:24,720 --> 00:25:26,240 Speaker 1: offensive end of the floor, which would lead you to 513 00:25:26,280 --> 00:25:28,800 Speaker 1: believe that they could lose to anyone. And again, like 514 00:25:28,840 --> 00:25:30,919 Speaker 1: we talked about, that's the theme of this tier. But 515 00:25:30,960 --> 00:25:33,520 Speaker 1: the reason why I have the Wolves so high has 516 00:25:33,560 --> 00:25:35,280 Speaker 1: a lot to do with their playoff run last year. 517 00:25:35,359 --> 00:25:37,960 Speaker 1: Hey what they did? Okay, see the other night. They 518 00:25:37,960 --> 00:25:41,240 Speaker 1: have the ability to ratchet up their physical intensity in 519 00:25:41,280 --> 00:25:43,480 Speaker 1: a way that a lot of teams really struggle to match. 520 00:25:43,920 --> 00:25:47,399 Speaker 1: They have so many, like top tier defensive players that 521 00:25:47,480 --> 00:25:50,359 Speaker 1: can really make opponents uncomfortable, and you get to the 522 00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:52,280 Speaker 1: playoffs and the officials let you get away with being 523 00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:55,600 Speaker 1: more handsy and grabby, and it just is a huge 524 00:25:55,640 --> 00:25:58,199 Speaker 1: advantage for Minnesota. I also think the Wolves match up 525 00:25:58,280 --> 00:26:01,080 Speaker 1: really well with Denver and OKC, which bodes well for 526 00:26:01,160 --> 00:26:03,760 Speaker 1: them as just being a threat to upset them. I 527 00:26:03,800 --> 00:26:05,879 Speaker 1: think they're actually more vulnerable against a team like the 528 00:26:05,920 --> 00:26:07,920 Speaker 1: Lakers because they wouldn't be able to guard Luca or 529 00:26:08,040 --> 00:26:10,880 Speaker 1: Lebron just because they can toss Jade McDaniels around most 530 00:26:10,880 --> 00:26:13,760 Speaker 1: of their perimeter guys are a little too thin. But yeah, 531 00:26:13,800 --> 00:26:16,120 Speaker 1: like Minnesota is an interesting team because like they could 532 00:26:16,160 --> 00:26:18,320 Speaker 1: easily get beat in the first round by their offense 533 00:26:18,320 --> 00:26:21,520 Speaker 1: falls apart. But like I wouldn't be stunned if they 534 00:26:21,560 --> 00:26:24,320 Speaker 1: beat OKAC, or if they beat Denver and went on 535 00:26:24,359 --> 00:26:27,439 Speaker 1: a run and just started mauling everybody with their defense, 536 00:26:27,480 --> 00:26:29,720 Speaker 1: and nas Reed is playing so damn well, and like 537 00:26:30,040 --> 00:26:31,800 Speaker 1: they're just they just they just look to me as 538 00:26:31,800 --> 00:26:33,399 Speaker 1: a team that's more of a playoff threat than a 539 00:26:33,400 --> 00:26:36,480 Speaker 1: regular season threat. Then, lastly, in this tier, the minute. 540 00:26:36,480 --> 00:26:39,840 Speaker 1: The Memphis Grizzlies plus three thousand the metrics PEG. Memphis 541 00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:42,119 Speaker 1: is an upper tier team. They're fifth in offense, seventh 542 00:26:42,160 --> 00:26:44,440 Speaker 1: and defense, second in rebounding. They're a very very good 543 00:26:44,520 --> 00:26:47,360 Speaker 1: regular season team, but their offense just has a tendency 544 00:26:47,400 --> 00:26:49,600 Speaker 1: to bog down against the good teams. They're just eighteenth 545 00:26:49,640 --> 00:26:52,600 Speaker 1: and spot up efficiency just a one to oh nine 546 00:26:52,720 --> 00:26:56,280 Speaker 1: point seven offensive rating in matchups against the top ten 547 00:26:56,320 --> 00:26:58,639 Speaker 1: point differentials in the league according to Cleaning the Glass, 548 00:26:58,760 --> 00:27:02,560 Speaker 1: and they're just six and ten in those matchups. Same 549 00:27:02,600 --> 00:27:05,120 Speaker 1: sort of story that consistently happens there. They've also struggled 550 00:27:05,119 --> 00:27:07,280 Speaker 1: in the clutch, where teams just pack the paint. It 551 00:27:07,280 --> 00:27:09,520 Speaker 1: becomes kind of a shot making contest with John Morant 552 00:27:09,560 --> 00:27:12,399 Speaker 1: and Jaren Jackson, and it turns into a lot of 553 00:27:12,440 --> 00:27:15,560 Speaker 1: difficult shots. They just haven't been able to have the 554 00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:17,560 Speaker 1: same level of success against the best teams in the 555 00:27:17,600 --> 00:27:19,880 Speaker 1: league that they did against the rest of their schedule. 556 00:27:20,040 --> 00:27:23,199 Speaker 1: That's pretty typical for young athletic teams right Their success 557 00:27:23,240 --> 00:27:25,720 Speaker 1: will be very matchup dependent. I could see them upsetting 558 00:27:25,720 --> 00:27:28,440 Speaker 1: teams like Denver or LA because of their lack of 559 00:27:28,480 --> 00:27:31,040 Speaker 1: rim protection. But they're the sort of team that if 560 00:27:31,040 --> 00:27:34,200 Speaker 1: they ran into like the MAVs with a healthy Anthony 561 00:27:34,280 --> 00:27:38,280 Speaker 1: Davis or Minnesota, teams that can really pack the paint 562 00:27:38,320 --> 00:27:41,359 Speaker 1: with length, I could see them losing in the first round. So, 563 00:27:41,520 --> 00:27:45,840 Speaker 1: once again, sticking to the theme of that tier, our fourth tier. 564 00:27:46,440 --> 00:27:49,480 Speaker 1: These are the puncher's chance teams. These are teams that 565 00:27:49,480 --> 00:27:53,119 Speaker 1: are most likely first round exits, but you can at 566 00:27:53,200 --> 00:27:56,040 Speaker 1: least see a viable pathway towards them making a deep 567 00:27:56,080 --> 00:27:58,520 Speaker 1: playoff run if a bunch of things go their way. 568 00:27:59,200 --> 00:28:01,919 Speaker 1: Number ten, the Goal In State Warriors plus three thousand 569 00:28:02,400 --> 00:28:04,800 Speaker 1: is a very good defensive team with a lot of 570 00:28:04,840 --> 00:28:08,040 Speaker 1: perimeter speed to dominant front court defenders and Jimmy Butler 571 00:28:08,080 --> 00:28:10,800 Speaker 1: and Draymond Green. But their offense is limited and it 572 00:28:10,800 --> 00:28:13,439 Speaker 1: can really grind to a halt sometimes, especially when Steph 573 00:28:13,520 --> 00:28:15,720 Speaker 1: is having a rough night. But it really is this 574 00:28:15,760 --> 00:28:17,520 Speaker 1: simple to me. It doesn't matter what the metrics are. 575 00:28:17,880 --> 00:28:20,080 Speaker 1: If you find yourself in a playoff series and it's 576 00:28:20,160 --> 00:28:24,159 Speaker 1: Draymond and it's Steph and it's Jimmy on the floor, 577 00:28:24,520 --> 00:28:26,800 Speaker 1: they're gonna be really tough to deal with. And if 578 00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:29,120 Speaker 1: those guys dig deep, like if Steph has a throwback 579 00:28:29,160 --> 00:28:31,280 Speaker 1: throwback playoff run like what he had in twenty twenty two, 580 00:28:31,680 --> 00:28:33,560 Speaker 1: or if Jimmy Butler has a throwback playoff run like 581 00:28:33,560 --> 00:28:36,440 Speaker 1: he had in twenty twenty three, they can absolutely beat 582 00:28:36,440 --> 00:28:39,320 Speaker 1: some teams and make some noise. Number eleven the Dallas 583 00:28:39,360 --> 00:28:43,480 Speaker 1: Mavericks plus thirty five hundred feels like their legitimate championship 584 00:28:43,560 --> 00:28:46,520 Speaker 1: upside was taken off with the departure of Luka Doncic. 585 00:28:46,600 --> 00:28:48,840 Speaker 1: I loved this roster. I would have probably had them 586 00:28:49,400 --> 00:28:51,840 Speaker 1: right up around that, like number five spot if they 587 00:28:51,840 --> 00:28:54,720 Speaker 1: had kept Luca. That's the same guy who got to 588 00:28:54,920 --> 00:28:56,720 Speaker 1: got to them, got them within three wins of the 589 00:28:56,760 --> 00:28:59,960 Speaker 1: title last year, right, But it is possible to see 590 00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:03,200 Speaker 1: a tiny pathway for them this year on the strength 591 00:29:03,240 --> 00:29:06,240 Speaker 1: of their defense and a surgical playoff run from a 592 00:29:06,280 --> 00:29:08,960 Speaker 1: guy like Kyrie Irving. We haven't even seen what ad 593 00:29:09,080 --> 00:29:11,760 Speaker 1: will look like next to Derek Lively. I he's a 594 00:29:11,760 --> 00:29:14,560 Speaker 1: substantial better defender than Daniel Gaffert. They could be frightening. 595 00:29:15,520 --> 00:29:17,760 Speaker 1: They might not even make the playoffs with all the injuries. 596 00:29:18,120 --> 00:29:20,040 Speaker 1: But if they somehow get in and they get a 597 00:29:20,040 --> 00:29:23,440 Speaker 1: first round series and eighty's healthy and Derek Lively's healthy 598 00:29:23,560 --> 00:29:26,720 Speaker 1: and Kyrie Irving's healthy and Klay Thompson is healthy. PJ. 599 00:29:26,960 --> 00:29:30,719 Speaker 1: Washington's healthy. We'd be foolish to say that they can't 600 00:29:31,600 --> 00:29:34,040 Speaker 1: beat a top team and go on a run. They're 601 00:29:34,080 --> 00:29:35,800 Speaker 1: going to be an absolute pain in the ass to 602 00:29:35,840 --> 00:29:38,040 Speaker 1: deal with. But I think it's far more likely that 603 00:29:38,040 --> 00:29:41,080 Speaker 1: they lose in the first round and then number twelve 604 00:29:41,320 --> 00:29:44,400 Speaker 1: the Indiana Pacers plus thirteen thousand to win the title 605 00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:46,440 Speaker 1: on DraftKings right now, real long shot. There so some 606 00:29:46,560 --> 00:29:48,720 Speaker 1: value if you believe in the Pacers. They have the 607 00:29:48,760 --> 00:29:51,160 Speaker 1: fifth best record in the league since December thirteenth, the 608 00:29:51,240 --> 00:29:54,400 Speaker 1: twenty and eight, seventh in offense, and eleventh in defense. 609 00:29:54,920 --> 00:29:57,000 Speaker 1: I just don't think any of their units have the 610 00:29:57,080 --> 00:30:00,240 Speaker 1: level of resilience necessary to be a legit contender. I've 611 00:30:00,240 --> 00:30:04,520 Speaker 1: seen Siakam and Halliburton struggle to create shots too often. 612 00:30:04,880 --> 00:30:07,080 Speaker 1: I've seen their defense fall apart too often, and they 613 00:30:07,120 --> 00:30:09,960 Speaker 1: are terrible rebounding team. So I just don't think they 614 00:30:10,000 --> 00:30:13,600 Speaker 1: have any like specific unit that's good enough to really 615 00:30:13,640 --> 00:30:16,640 Speaker 1: carry them. But they won the War of Attrition last year. 616 00:30:17,000 --> 00:30:19,200 Speaker 1: While every team broke down around them, they just kept 617 00:30:19,240 --> 00:30:23,680 Speaker 1: trucking along. They even held leads late in the conference finals. 618 00:30:23,680 --> 00:30:26,760 Speaker 1: Against Boston. They're a good ball pressure team. They're a 619 00:30:26,760 --> 00:30:30,320 Speaker 1: good transition offense. They can keep games close and wear 620 00:30:30,360 --> 00:30:32,840 Speaker 1: you down. It's impossible not to at least consider them 621 00:30:32,880 --> 00:30:35,760 Speaker 1: a threat after they made the conference finals last year. 622 00:30:36,680 --> 00:30:38,800 Speaker 1: Number thirteen. Our last team in this year, the Los 623 00:30:38,840 --> 00:30:42,440 Speaker 1: Angeles Clippers. They're plus thirty five hundred to win the title. 624 00:30:42,680 --> 00:30:45,959 Speaker 1: Tons of perimeter speed, guys who can defend both on 625 00:30:46,080 --> 00:30:48,280 Speaker 1: and off the ball. James Harden was an All Star 626 00:30:48,360 --> 00:30:51,680 Speaker 1: this year for his shot creation ability. If Kazubas has 627 00:30:51,680 --> 00:30:55,200 Speaker 1: turned himself into like a super dependable starting center in 628 00:30:55,200 --> 00:30:58,560 Speaker 1: this league, Norman Palace having a career year, and Kawhi's 629 00:30:58,640 --> 00:31:02,360 Speaker 1: back now, theoretical championship upside for the Clippers comes down 630 00:31:02,400 --> 00:31:05,000 Speaker 1: to Kawhi reaching his peak and he just hasn't looked 631 00:31:05,040 --> 00:31:07,600 Speaker 1: like that guy yet. Can't write them off because if 632 00:31:07,680 --> 00:31:10,320 Speaker 1: Kawhi does get back to that level, this roster is 633 00:31:10,440 --> 00:31:13,120 Speaker 1: absolutely good enough to hoist the trophy. But we all 634 00:31:13,160 --> 00:31:17,040 Speaker 1: know that that's just a very narrow possibility that for 635 00:31:17,120 --> 00:31:19,880 Speaker 1: something like that to happen. Moving on to our last tier, 636 00:31:20,840 --> 00:31:23,640 Speaker 1: these are teams that think they can compete for a championship, 637 00:31:24,200 --> 00:31:27,320 Speaker 1: but that I can't actually see a viable path for them. 638 00:31:27,760 --> 00:31:29,960 Speaker 1: These are teams, like if I even just saw them 639 00:31:30,080 --> 00:31:33,960 Speaker 1: playing in the conference finals, I would be absolutely stunned. 640 00:31:34,840 --> 00:31:37,719 Speaker 1: Number fourteen the Houston Rockets plus six thousand to win 641 00:31:37,760 --> 00:31:40,160 Speaker 1: the title. They just don't have the shot creation to 642 00:31:40,200 --> 00:31:42,760 Speaker 1: hang with the top teams. Even just losing Fred van 643 00:31:42,840 --> 00:31:44,960 Speaker 1: Vliet caused the bottom to fall out for him. They're 644 00:31:44,960 --> 00:31:47,520 Speaker 1: two to six since he got hurt after being like 645 00:31:47,640 --> 00:31:50,920 Speaker 1: utterly dominant with him before that. They're even struggling against 646 00:31:50,920 --> 00:31:53,880 Speaker 1: bad teams in that stretch. I think it's highly likely 647 00:31:53,920 --> 00:31:55,800 Speaker 1: that they lose in the first round. And even if 648 00:31:55,840 --> 00:31:58,000 Speaker 1: they catch like a really favorable matchup and like beat 649 00:31:58,040 --> 00:32:00,520 Speaker 1: a bad playing team in the first round, I still 650 00:32:00,560 --> 00:32:04,320 Speaker 1: think they're certain to lose in the second round. And lastly, 651 00:32:04,400 --> 00:32:07,960 Speaker 1: Number fifteen the Phoenix Suns plus twelve thousand to win 652 00:32:08,000 --> 00:32:11,400 Speaker 1: the title, real long shot odds. There just a horrific defense, 653 00:32:11,680 --> 00:32:14,680 Speaker 1: a horrific rebounding team that doesn't score the ball nearly 654 00:32:14,720 --> 00:32:17,280 Speaker 1: well enough to be a threat to do anything. Even 655 00:32:17,320 --> 00:32:19,680 Speaker 1: with Kevin Durant and Devin Booker on the floor together 656 00:32:19,800 --> 00:32:22,200 Speaker 1: this year, they have only a one to fifteen point 657 00:32:22,280 --> 00:32:25,320 Speaker 1: six offensive rating. That's more than ten points worse than 658 00:32:25,320 --> 00:32:27,600 Speaker 1: the Nuggets are with Nicole Jokic, for example, per one 659 00:32:27,680 --> 00:32:30,480 Speaker 1: hundred possessions. The roster is full of guys who probably 660 00:32:30,480 --> 00:32:32,920 Speaker 1: shouldn't be in the rotation on a serious basketball team. 661 00:32:33,360 --> 00:32:35,720 Speaker 1: I think they're destined for a plan or first round 662 00:32:35,720 --> 00:32:38,959 Speaker 1: loss and probably completely blowing up the roster when they 663 00:32:39,000 --> 00:32:42,000 Speaker 1: get to this summer. That's it for our contender rankings. Also, 664 00:32:42,640 --> 00:32:43,800 Speaker 1: just to give you guys an idea of what I 665 00:32:43,840 --> 00:32:46,920 Speaker 1: thought were the best values in terms of betting odds 666 00:32:47,320 --> 00:32:49,640 Speaker 1: Denver at plus fourteen hundred, I think they got a 667 00:32:49,640 --> 00:32:51,960 Speaker 1: real shot to win it this year. That's a great 668 00:32:52,040 --> 00:32:56,200 Speaker 1: price in the Minnesota Timberwolves again, plus six thousand for 669 00:32:56,280 --> 00:32:58,440 Speaker 1: a team that matches up really well with the top 670 00:32:58,480 --> 00:33:01,680 Speaker 1: teams in the league and just as this otherworldly physical 671 00:33:01,760 --> 00:33:04,320 Speaker 1: defense potential when you get to the postseason. I just 672 00:33:04,360 --> 00:33:06,360 Speaker 1: think that's an interesting price to be able to jump 673 00:33:06,400 --> 00:33:09,080 Speaker 1: on for value as well. All right, guys, it's all 674 00:33:09,120 --> 00:33:11,200 Speaker 1: Hafford today is always as sincerely appreciate you guys for 675 00:33:11,240 --> 00:33:13,200 Speaker 1: supporting me and supporting the show. We're gonna take a 676 00:33:13,200 --> 00:33:16,120 Speaker 1: little break for this last little break before we get 677 00:33:16,160 --> 00:33:18,440 Speaker 1: into the home stretch of the season. Wednesday night, the 678 00:33:18,560 --> 00:33:21,000 Speaker 1: Lakers play the Hornets. We'll be breaking that game down 679 00:33:21,000 --> 00:33:26,880 Speaker 1: on Thursday morning. I will see you guys that the volume. 680 00:33:27,560 --> 00:33:30,000 Speaker 1: What's Up guys, As always, I appreciate you for listening 681 00:33:30,000 --> 00:33:32,840 Speaker 1: to and supporting OOPS tonight. It would actually be really 682 00:33:32,880 --> 00:33:34,760 Speaker 1: helpful for us if you guys would take a second 683 00:33:34,840 --> 00:33:37,520 Speaker 1: and leave a rating and a review. As always, I 684 00:33:37,520 --> 00:33:39,280 Speaker 1: appreciate you guys supporting us, but if you could take 685 00:33:39,280 --> 00:33:41,640 Speaker 1: a minute to do that, I'd really appreciate it.