WEBVTT - U.S. Jobs Surge Defies Omicron 0:00:01.800 --> 0:00:04.440 This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Karl Masser and I'm 0:00:04.480 --> 0:00:07.280 Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stanovk. We're here every day bringing 0:00:07.320 --> 0:00:09.799 you the latest news from the world to business and finance, 0:00:09.840 --> 0:00:13.680 plus technology, politics, economics, all purtnising the power of Business 0:00:13.680 --> 0:00:17.119 Week reporters and editors, not to mention our journalists and 0:00:17.120 --> 0:00:20.000 analysts in more than one twenty countries. You can download 0:00:20.000 --> 0:00:23.479 Bloomberg Business Weekend iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot Com. You 0:00:23.480 --> 0:00:25.439 can also listen to our radio show at two pm 0:00:25.480 --> 0:00:27.880 Eastern Time on the Bloomberg Radio or watch us on 0:00:27.920 --> 0:00:31.920 YouTube search Bloomberg Global News. So it definitely could have 0:00:32.000 --> 0:00:35.440 gone either way, at least according to economist estimates which 0:00:35.440 --> 0:00:37.720 were all over the place. What did happen is that 0:00:37.800 --> 0:00:40.800 the US labor market showed unexpected strength last month, despite 0:00:40.960 --> 0:00:44.839 record COVID niniteen infections and really showing signs of extending 0:00:44.840 --> 0:00:47.880 the momentum into the new year. A surging wages added 0:00:47.920 --> 0:00:51.440 more pressure on the FED two raise rates. You were 0:00:51.479 --> 0:00:55.360 all over this week about the wide range of estimates 0:00:55.360 --> 0:00:57.920 for those non farm payrolls that four hundred sixty seven 0:00:57.960 --> 0:00:59.680 thousand game that you referred to in jobs. That's our 0:00:59.720 --> 0:01:04.400 past all economist estimates at seven thousand job difference between 0:01:04.440 --> 0:01:06.479 the number that we got from a DP earlier this week. 0:01:06.520 --> 0:01:08.800 It's to forecasting right now. Yeah, I'm gonna give them one. 0:01:08.840 --> 0:01:10.720 It's it's like there's a there's a good article in 0:01:10.760 --> 0:01:12.880 the Bloomberg right now about how tough it is for 0:01:12.959 --> 0:01:15.120 economists right now. Hey, let's talk about this with us. 0:01:15.120 --> 0:01:18.280 Susan Arthur, chief executive officer at career Builder. She joins 0:01:18.319 --> 0:01:22.400 us on the phone from Philadelphia. Susan, how are you hey? Good? 0:01:22.600 --> 0:01:24.560 Hey Tim, Hey Carol, thanks for having me ony, great 0:01:24.600 --> 0:01:26.560 to have you with us. Did you see this coming? 0:01:26.800 --> 0:01:31.200 You have great data at career Builder. We see uh, 0:01:31.240 --> 0:01:34.600 you know what we see at career Builder is millions 0:01:34.600 --> 0:01:38.039 of jobs flowing through this site every day. It is 0:01:38.120 --> 0:01:42.280 picking up constantly. Um. But to say we could have 0:01:42.360 --> 0:01:45.920 landed this exact prediction, no, Um. We do see some 0:01:46.040 --> 0:01:50.080 other emerging trends under the numbers though, that are new 0:01:50.440 --> 0:01:53.000 for us, and I'll take you through that. Yeah, because 0:01:53.080 --> 0:01:55.160 because you know what, Susan, that's what we love like 0:01:55.240 --> 0:01:57.000 talking to someone like you that you guys can get 0:01:57.000 --> 0:02:00.440 really specific about where is the momentum and what going on? 0:02:00.520 --> 0:02:02.800 So so digg in dig into that area for us 0:02:02.800 --> 0:02:06.040 if you would, sure, So things that we all know 0:02:06.280 --> 0:02:09.280 and that are obvious, like the top you know, top 0:02:09.360 --> 0:02:13.600 number of postings are transportation and logistics and moving cargo, 0:02:13.919 --> 0:02:17.079 and that the healthcare jobs are of three hundred three 0:02:17.160 --> 0:02:21.200 hundred plus percent. You're a rear what's newly emerging for us? 0:02:21.240 --> 0:02:25.080 Obviously the work from home thing is persisting, but what's 0:02:25.160 --> 0:02:28.920 also newly emerging for us in terms of demand is 0:02:29.320 --> 0:02:35.760 about a five hundred and increased in demand for community 0:02:36.040 --> 0:02:41.720 and social service occupation. So under that vernacular, I think 0:02:41.720 --> 0:02:47.480 of the top ten jobs in social work, in licensed therapists, 0:02:47.520 --> 0:02:51.799 in family therapists, in substance abuse fields. So that's an 0:02:51.919 --> 0:02:54.920 enormous emerging trend. And if you think about that in 0:02:54.960 --> 0:02:57.960 the concept text of the pandemic and the workforce and 0:02:58.080 --> 0:03:01.440 burnout and everything folks have managed um through COVID, I 0:03:01.480 --> 0:03:04.160 mean it is spiking at an extraordinary rate. What's that 0:03:05.600 --> 0:03:07.520 increases that year over year? A month over month? What 0:03:07.800 --> 0:03:11.239 year over year? Okay, January Jannuerar, right, right, So it's 0:03:11.320 --> 0:03:13.640 pretty and it leads like for us it's one of 0:03:13.639 --> 0:03:16.440 the leading of healthcare for us your every years three 0:03:17.160 --> 0:03:19.920 So it's out there, it's standing out. Transportations up for 0:03:20.000 --> 0:03:22.480 us on our site hundred sixty seven percent. But it's 0:03:22.520 --> 0:03:26.360 really leading extraordinary numbers. And then other numbers are you 0:03:26.360 --> 0:03:29.600 would not be surprised about tax planners. We're from home 0:03:29.639 --> 0:03:33.600 tax planners, things like that. Not so surprising, right, But um, 0:03:33.639 --> 0:03:36.800 that's that's probably the biggest category of labor that's breaking 0:03:36.800 --> 0:03:39.480 out for US UM with really big numbers. What about 0:03:39.560 --> 0:03:42.920 when it comes to just sheer aggregate job postings on 0:03:43.040 --> 0:03:45.680 Career Builder, how much has that increased in recent months? 0:03:46.560 --> 0:03:50.240 It has increased since the beginning of the pandemics three 0:03:50.520 --> 0:03:54.160 x three and then year over year two percent, So 0:03:54.280 --> 0:03:57.040 it's pasting. It's up all the time, the number of 0:03:57.200 --> 0:04:00.160 postings flowing through this site all the time. In the 0:04:00.240 --> 0:04:03.760 number of job seekers flowing through the site is continually up. 0:04:03.920 --> 0:04:06.480 So it's both there's a demand on the on the 0:04:06.560 --> 0:04:09.000 side of companies looking for labor. At the same time 0:04:09.000 --> 0:04:12.839 there's demand on the side of individuals looking for work, right, 0:04:12.960 --> 0:04:16.400 and that individuals looking for work absolutely is part of 0:04:16.400 --> 0:04:19.000 the quit you know, this extraordinary quick thing we have 0:04:19.120 --> 0:04:21.360 going on in the churn in the workforce and it's 0:04:21.640 --> 0:04:27.240 people coming back. So as we come back post pandemic, 0:04:27.560 --> 0:04:31.400 we talk about going back to normal or how the 0:04:31.480 --> 0:04:35.160 labor force has been changed dramatically. How would how would 0:04:35.200 --> 0:04:39.159 you address that area has Is it going back to 0:04:39.240 --> 0:04:43.320 normal pre pandemic or is it something different? Carol, Let's 0:04:43.320 --> 0:04:48.080 do us like the complexion of the workforce is, you know, 0:04:48.120 --> 0:04:54.000 potentially permanently changing, meaning who works for whom, for how long? UM, 0:04:54.040 --> 0:04:59.440 What career mobility looks like, what requirements workers have about 0:04:59.440 --> 0:05:03.160 how the work, when they'll work, where they'll work, UM. 0:05:03.200 --> 0:05:08.039 Where we see employers meeting employees on skill development and 0:05:08.320 --> 0:05:13.479 um doing extraordinary work and you know, increasingly creative work 0:05:14.000 --> 0:05:16.919 to hold an employee longer and to sort of beat 0:05:16.960 --> 0:05:19.160 the average in terms of how long you retain people. 0:05:19.200 --> 0:05:21.599 So we see a lot of good things happening on 0:05:21.600 --> 0:05:24.920 the employer's side in terms of really trying to address 0:05:24.960 --> 0:05:27.120 who is this new workforce? Right? If if we take 0:05:27.160 --> 0:05:31.880 the aggregate number of people working and the generational complexion 0:05:31.880 --> 0:05:34.840 of that workforce and then what their expectations and needs are, 0:05:35.080 --> 0:05:37.880 we do see creativity, We see productivity, but we also 0:05:37.960 --> 0:05:40.880 do see sort of the see change and how work 0:05:40.960 --> 0:05:43.719 gets done and how much of that is permanent? I 0:05:43.720 --> 0:05:47.440 mean we're at right now. Working from home doesn't change, 0:05:47.480 --> 0:05:51.440 doesn't change radically. Does average tenure at a company continue 0:05:51.480 --> 0:05:55.839 to shrink maybe for the foreseeable future. Does the generation 0:05:55.880 --> 0:05:57.800 that stepped out a little bit early, you know, those 0:05:57.839 --> 0:06:01.080 couple million people, how much does that packed us? So 0:06:01.200 --> 0:06:03.839 we see this this enormous change on both sides, like 0:06:03.880 --> 0:06:06.800 of our marketplace, it's on both sides. What a workers need, 0:06:07.279 --> 0:06:09.280 what's going to get them? And then why are they 0:06:09.279 --> 0:06:12.680 going to stay? Yeah, we certainly feel like they're I 0:06:12.800 --> 0:06:14.240 kind of think the stories were going to calm down, 0:06:14.279 --> 0:06:16.400 but I feel like they're picking up momentum, especially as 0:06:16.400 --> 0:06:19.039 we I think people are really making decisions about coming 0:06:19.040 --> 0:06:20.920 back or or how they're gonna work. Like we just 0:06:20.960 --> 0:06:22.640 talked about the example of that thirty one year old 0:06:22.640 --> 0:06:24.240 who went to that competing tech firm to get an 0:06:24.240 --> 0:06:29.840 offer and he got a raise of seventy grand two. Right, Yeah, 0:06:29.960 --> 0:06:32.280 it's like pretty remarkable. Hey, Susan, thank you so much. 0:06:32.320 --> 0:06:35.440 Susan Arthur, chief executive officer, a career builder, on the 0:06:35.440 --> 0:06:39.839 phone from Philadelphia. This is Bloomberg Business Week with Carol 0:06:39.920 --> 0:06:44.359 Messer and Bloomberg Quick takes Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. 0:06:44.760 --> 0:06:47.359 But administration may have to ask Congress to prove additional 0:06:47.360 --> 0:06:50.720 aid to fund coronavirus testing, therapeutics and vaccines. This is 0:06:50.760 --> 0:06:54.360 coming from the Washington Reports, the Washington Post reporting there's 0:06:54.360 --> 0:06:55.880 a bunch of things going up. But let's get to 0:06:55.920 --> 0:06:58.120 our guests. Yeah, Dr Ian LUs Faders, clinical professor of 0:06:58.200 --> 0:07:00.200 Medicine at n y U Land going to medical center. 0:07:00.240 --> 0:07:03.240 He joins us on the phone from Long Island this afternoon. 0:07:03.320 --> 0:07:05.240 Dr LUs Bader, I want to get right to it 0:07:05.320 --> 0:07:08.800 because you sent our producer Paul Brennan a really interesting 0:07:08.880 --> 0:07:12.760 article that answers or tries to answer the question why 0:07:12.800 --> 0:07:14.600 some people get COVID when others don't. It's a question 0:07:14.600 --> 0:07:17.320 that Carol and I have each been asking ourselves a 0:07:17.360 --> 0:07:19.840 lot over the last year, because a lot of people 0:07:19.840 --> 0:07:22.640 around us have gotten COVID. Right. It's like one of 0:07:22.640 --> 0:07:24.520 those things, and we even talked about in the news room, Tim, 0:07:24.560 --> 0:07:25.920 if you think about it, we'll be sitting next to 0:07:25.960 --> 0:07:27.960 someone and they're like, yeah, I got it really bad, 0:07:28.600 --> 0:07:31.760 and you know, but my my wife, my husband, my partner, 0:07:31.840 --> 0:07:33.880 they're fine, or my kids are fine, or my kids 0:07:33.920 --> 0:07:36.760 got it and I'm fine, and and I know in 0:07:36.840 --> 0:07:40.400 my home we might have isolated when there was nervousness, 0:07:40.400 --> 0:07:42.200 but come on, you're all breathing. They're not saying you 0:07:42.280 --> 0:07:44.600 outside to the backyard, right, Carol, as much as they 0:07:44.640 --> 0:07:47.000 might have won. Dr in Lustbader, Clinical Professor of Medics 0:07:47.000 --> 0:07:50.120 at NYU Lane Goes Medical Center. Why Dr LUs Bader, 0:07:50.400 --> 0:07:54.480 do some people get COVID and others don't? Great question 0:07:54.680 --> 0:07:59.480 and Happy Friday, by the way, And lots of physicians 0:07:59.480 --> 0:08:01.720 in science US are looking at that, not just for 0:08:01.800 --> 0:08:05.560 COVID nineteen, but really for a whole variety of infections, 0:08:05.560 --> 0:08:09.800 whether they're bacterial or viral. Obviously, COVID nineteen is a 0:08:09.920 --> 0:08:14.760 viral infection, Influenza very common. We think there are probably 0:08:14.800 --> 0:08:18.320 several reasons. One or certain genetics, certain h l A types, 0:08:18.360 --> 0:08:23.480 in other words, certain markers on you ourselves that that 0:08:23.680 --> 0:08:27.040 are involved in self recognition may play a role. Also, 0:08:27.200 --> 0:08:32.440 probably prior exposure. COVID nineteen is a coronavirus, and there 0:08:32.440 --> 0:08:36.280 are many coronaviruses that cause the common cold, and we 0:08:36.400 --> 0:08:39.240 think that perhaps there's some cross reactivity, in other words, 0:08:39.240 --> 0:08:42.120 that if you've had common colds in the past, you 0:08:42.200 --> 0:08:45.400 have some antibodies to coronavirus, whether or without getting the 0:08:45.440 --> 0:08:50.160 COVID nineteen vaccines, and that may provide some protection. But 0:08:50.240 --> 0:08:53.800 you're exactly right. There are people where it rampages through 0:08:53.840 --> 0:08:56.120 the family everyone in the house gets it, and there 0:08:56.160 --> 0:08:59.800 are other families where it's either very mild infections we 0:08:59.840 --> 0:09:05.160 know some of those as in our host, or asymptomatic infections, 0:09:05.880 --> 0:09:08.240 or some people just don't get it and everyone else 0:09:08.280 --> 0:09:10.559 in the house has had it. So part of it 0:09:10.600 --> 0:09:15.560 is probably prior exposure, uh to a similar viruses. Part 0:09:15.559 --> 0:09:19.360 of it is genetics. Some of it may involve viral load, 0:09:19.400 --> 0:09:22.960 in other words, how much coughing or how much of 0:09:23.000 --> 0:09:25.480 the virus really lands in the names of parents. But 0:09:25.520 --> 0:09:29.559 even when they do experiments on people where they give 0:09:29.600 --> 0:09:32.760 the exact same amount, some people respond to the infection, 0:09:32.840 --> 0:09:36.200 others don't. Yeah, it is really Fascinating's funny. Tell her 0:09:36.360 --> 0:09:38.880 Rigs on our TV side also enter Bloomberg Radio audience. 0:09:38.880 --> 0:09:40.360 She and I've talked about it because she has been 0:09:40.360 --> 0:09:42.760 coming to work from day one, She's been traveling since 0:09:42.880 --> 0:09:48.319 day one of the pandemic. Has not officially gotten COVID. 0:09:48.400 --> 0:09:49.960 By the way, we get tested every week and we 0:09:49.960 --> 0:09:51.840 get tested all the time. We know if we had 0:09:51.840 --> 0:09:54.160 it and didn't and just didn't have symptoms. Right, she's 0:09:54.160 --> 0:09:56.440 had no positive and she's like, I wonder if I've 0:09:56.520 --> 0:10:00.360 just been slowly better. You better not curse her, Carol Singer. 0:10:00.720 --> 0:10:03.360 But we wondered, like, has she thought, you know, have 0:10:03.480 --> 0:10:06.360 I just been constantly exposed a little out of time 0:10:06.480 --> 0:10:11.120 and somehow created some super immunity to it. Um, So 0:10:11.160 --> 0:10:14.319 it's really interesting. Um. You've also shared with us a 0:10:14.440 --> 0:10:17.080 story and we were talking about this in preparation for 0:10:17.120 --> 0:10:20.720 a conversation with you about research on lockdowns having little 0:10:20.760 --> 0:10:24.240 impact on saving lives left for you to I'm sure 0:10:24.280 --> 0:10:25.800 you saw that if it was in the New York 0:10:25.800 --> 0:10:29.199 Post weigh in on that. So this was in the 0:10:29.320 --> 0:10:33.920 journal Cold Studies and Applied Economics Literature View and met Analysis. 0:10:33.920 --> 0:10:36.400 Met analysis means a number of studies were reviewed. In 0:10:36.400 --> 0:10:38.880 this case, they were twenty four of the effects of 0:10:39.000 --> 0:10:43.240 lockdowns on COVID nineteen mortality, and there were several authors, 0:10:43.840 --> 0:10:47.000 one of which is from you know Hopkins, although not officially. 0:10:47.600 --> 0:10:50.720 Uh Hopkins did not officially weigh in on this, and 0:10:50.760 --> 0:10:53.600 they really reviewed a number of studies from a variety 0:10:53.600 --> 0:10:57.280 of different countries looking at lockdowns and the effect on mortality, 0:10:57.600 --> 0:11:00.679 and part of this is a number crunching, and they 0:11:00.720 --> 0:11:04.120 found that it was really a minimal effect point two 0:11:04.200 --> 0:11:11.040 percent decrease in mortality and UH a slightly better effect 0:11:11.280 --> 0:11:14.760 on home self isolation, which was a two point nine 0:11:14.760 --> 0:11:18.320 percent reduction. So it really calls into questions some of 0:11:18.320 --> 0:11:22.439 the public policy. Should we be locking down and how 0:11:22.480 --> 0:11:25.440 effective is that? Obviously some countries like China have been 0:11:25.520 --> 0:11:29.199 very aggressive. Other countries in the scandinating like Sweden really 0:11:29.240 --> 0:11:32.240 are sort of open for everyone. And I think it's 0:11:32.280 --> 0:11:35.040 important to get this data review it, to criticize it 0:11:35.920 --> 0:11:41.960 UH and or accepted, because that should affect future future policy. 0:11:42.040 --> 0:11:44.800 You know, we should be locking people down if it's 0:11:44.840 --> 0:11:47.280 not going to be effective, it's certainly something to roll 0:11:47.320 --> 0:11:49.880 into the conversation. Ian. Thank you so much, Dr Ian 0:11:49.920 --> 0:11:52.080 LUs bid Or. He's clinical professor of medicine n y 0:11:52.120 --> 0:11:53.880 U Lang. Going glad to hear too that he sounds 0:11:53.880 --> 0:11:56.120 a lot better, because I know he's been dealing with 0:11:56.320 --> 0:11:58.920 all of this over the last few weeks. This is 0:11:58.960 --> 0:12:02.880 Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes. 0:12:03.000 --> 0:12:07.920 Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. You're listening to Bloomberg Business 0:12:07.960 --> 0:12:11.760 Week with Carol Messer and Bloomberg Quick Takes Tim Stinovic 0:12:12.240 --> 0:12:15.400 on Bloomberg Radio. We also want to talk about the 0:12:15.440 --> 0:12:17.520 Remarks section of the new issue of Bloomberg Business Week 0:12:17.559 --> 0:12:20.560 gets out online, on newsstands and on the Bloomberg and 0:12:20.559 --> 0:12:23.080 Bloomberg's Chris con And writing about how President Binden is 0:12:23.160 --> 0:12:27.240 essentially rebranding Reaganomics to save his own economic agenda. We're 0:12:27.240 --> 0:12:29.880 talking supply side economics. We're doing that with Chris Condin, 0:12:29.920 --> 0:12:32.880 Federal Reserve in US economy reporter for Bloomberg News. Joel 0:12:32.880 --> 0:12:35.600 Weber is editor at Bloomberg Business Week. He joins us 0:12:35.640 --> 0:12:38.240 on the access line from Brooklyn. Joel, is it is 0:12:38.280 --> 0:12:41.360 it more of a question of of branding than it 0:12:41.600 --> 0:12:45.960 is of actual a difference in the meaning around supply 0:12:46.000 --> 0:12:51.760 side economics. It's uh, it is a rebrand uh. And 0:12:51.760 --> 0:12:56.720 and it is like maybe um, the most like head 0:12:56.760 --> 0:13:02.000 spinning thing that you know, I think a the Democrats 0:13:02.040 --> 0:13:04.800 could attempt to accomplish here with you know, supply side 0:13:04.800 --> 0:13:08.240 economic economics. That is this thing that goes back to 0:13:08.840 --> 0:13:12.160 the Reagan era. The whole idea of kind of Reaganomics 0:13:12.240 --> 0:13:15.520 kind of almost built around it. And what seems to 0:13:15.880 --> 0:13:19.199 be up the new the new strategy from the Biden 0:13:19.240 --> 0:13:23.640 administration basically kind of led by Janet Yellen and Treasury 0:13:23.880 --> 0:13:27.520 is to basically like take over that term and use 0:13:27.559 --> 0:13:31.800 it for purposes that could you know, help champion build 0:13:31.800 --> 0:13:35.200 back better. But Chris, um, how is it going over 0:13:35.800 --> 0:13:40.880 in d C? Well, I have to say Joel that 0:13:41.040 --> 0:13:43.200 there there is a corner of d C that is 0:13:43.240 --> 0:13:48.600 really excited about this. There are, we've come to find out, um, 0:13:48.640 --> 0:13:53.520 a whole bevy of liberal economists who have been really 0:13:54.520 --> 0:13:59.360 anxious for the Democrats to adopt a version of supply 0:13:59.400 --> 0:14:02.600 side ecn coomics and have been championing this. Now. It's 0:14:02.800 --> 0:14:06.800 very different, it must be said, from the the old 0:14:06.840 --> 0:14:13.200 traditional style because of the role it sees for government. Um, 0:14:13.240 --> 0:14:17.040 but there is definitely a group of folks out there. Uh, 0:14:17.160 --> 0:14:19.920 someone would say this is really nothing new, and others 0:14:19.960 --> 0:14:22.360 who would say, well, this is really what we finally need, 0:14:22.440 --> 0:14:28.360 is that a government being very active in marshaling resources 0:14:28.480 --> 0:14:36.080 into underinvested in public goods. Alright, so traditional reagonomics. I 0:14:36.080 --> 0:14:38.320 love this. It's like an economic lesson and taking us 0:14:38.320 --> 0:14:42.560 back through the politics and the Reagan era, um, which 0:14:42.600 --> 0:14:45.160 is one the Republicans are so proud of, right they 0:14:45.240 --> 0:14:49.600 laud uh that era in the White House. But traditional 0:14:49.880 --> 0:14:52.720 supply side economics, right, we're talking about it's a lot 0:14:52.760 --> 0:14:57.440 of tax policy that's at place here. Absolutely, absolutely, Carol. 0:14:57.640 --> 0:15:02.200 The heart of supply side economics is about how taxation 0:15:02.760 --> 0:15:07.040 alters human behavior by extension the economy. The idea, you know, 0:15:07.080 --> 0:15:08.840 if you're going to be for your next hour work, 0:15:08.880 --> 0:15:10.400 if you're going to be taxed at a much higher 0:15:10.440 --> 0:15:13.840 level than you lose some incentive to work, and you 0:15:13.920 --> 0:15:18.280 apply that broadly. This theory says that whatever the government 0:15:18.360 --> 0:15:23.360 does which requires taxation will on the margin, to some extent, 0:15:23.920 --> 0:15:28.880 hinder the supply of capital and labor to the economy. 0:15:28.920 --> 0:15:32.720 So the more you tax, the less the economy grows. Now, 0:15:32.720 --> 0:15:35.600 there's a lot of debate. The theory is is pretty 0:15:35.640 --> 0:15:39.520 well accepted, but the debate is around how much really. 0:15:40.120 --> 0:15:43.280 And then there's this other problem that by the administration 0:15:43.360 --> 0:15:48.160 is attempting to address that certain things that are absolutely 0:15:48.240 --> 0:15:52.760 necessary for a productive economy, the private sector just won't 0:15:52.880 --> 0:15:59.480 do enough of that. Just think about infrastructure, basic scientific research, education, Jenny, 0:15:59.520 --> 0:16:02.080 you know, in this saying we have neglected these things 0:16:02.440 --> 0:16:05.560 were far too long by over applying this idea of 0:16:05.560 --> 0:16:09.320 supplying economics, and only the government can come in and 0:16:09.480 --> 0:16:12.560 organize the resources to pour into these things in the 0:16:12.600 --> 0:16:15.960 amounts that are necessary. And if we do them, it 0:16:16.080 --> 0:16:19.680 will have some cost in the short term, as supply 0:16:19.760 --> 0:16:22.560 side economics says, but in the longer term, we'll have 0:16:22.600 --> 0:16:26.160 a much bigger payback. So that's their theory and that 0:16:26.280 --> 0:16:28.880 is their swiss What's interesting, Christ after reading your story, 0:16:28.920 --> 0:16:33.400 I learned that this is not necessarily something new to 0:16:33.520 --> 0:16:37.320 a certain circle in Washington of policy walks who have 0:16:37.400 --> 0:16:41.800 been for years calling for progressives and Democrats to embrace 0:16:41.840 --> 0:16:46.400 this absolutely true. Yeah, they're even I mean there are conservatives. 0:16:47.040 --> 0:16:51.480 Most conservative economists absolutely admit that they are. Like I said, 0:16:51.520 --> 0:16:54.680 there are some things the government must do. You know, 0:16:55.000 --> 0:16:57.120 we want to build a navy. We can't rely on 0:16:57.160 --> 0:17:00.120 the private sector to do that. Um. But there are 0:17:00.120 --> 0:17:05.000 also these this this uh swap of liberal economists who 0:17:05.000 --> 0:17:07.440 have been saying the government needs to invest in these 0:17:07.480 --> 0:17:11.879 big public goods and not just provides the transfers to 0:17:11.880 --> 0:17:17.040 to help poor folks, to support underprivileged folks, but also 0:17:17.119 --> 0:17:20.720 we must invest in these things that are necessary for 0:17:20.800 --> 0:17:25.960 our economy. And they add crucially childcare, which isn't always 0:17:26.000 --> 0:17:30.439 included in these supply side ideas. But yell And and 0:17:30.480 --> 0:17:32.800 the bind administration are saying no, if we want a 0:17:32.840 --> 0:17:36.560 healthy supply of labor, in other words, parents with small children, 0:17:36.600 --> 0:17:41.840 if we want them into workforce, we must have affordable childcare. 0:17:42.119 --> 0:17:48.080 That's another new Democratic spin on supply side economics. Okay, 0:17:48.080 --> 0:17:50.280 so Chris, I want to ask. I mean, one of 0:17:50.320 --> 0:17:52.280 the amazing things about the story is like the number 0:17:52.280 --> 0:17:57.640 of sort of policymakers, former policymakers that you actually talked 0:17:57.680 --> 0:17:59.760 to UM. One of the big names that jumped out 0:17:59.800 --> 0:18:03.439 of me is Glenn Hubbard, who has obviously uh instrumental 0:18:03.520 --> 0:18:06.440 in George W. Bush's tax cuts in two thousand three. 0:18:06.640 --> 0:18:08.879 What did what did Glenn Hubbard have to say about 0:18:09.520 --> 0:18:13.439 this move by the Biden administration. Well, he's said a 0:18:13.440 --> 0:18:16.119 couple of different things on two different levels. First of all, 0:18:16.280 --> 0:18:20.760 on the economics, Uh, he doesn't think there's anything new 0:18:20.840 --> 0:18:25.840 about UM requiring the government to invest in certain things 0:18:25.880 --> 0:18:29.960 like infrastructure and education, etcetera. He very much quibbles with 0:18:30.000 --> 0:18:34.320 the idea that subsidizing childcare is really a supply side 0:18:35.240 --> 0:18:39.159 um argument and that kind of devolves into semantic so, 0:18:39.240 --> 0:18:41.600 but he's a skeptic on this front. Now. I also 0:18:41.640 --> 0:18:44.199 asked him interesting about the messaging side. I said, well, 0:18:44.240 --> 0:18:47.960 you were in government. Isn't it important for an administration 0:18:48.080 --> 0:18:51.639 to be able to have a good, clean message for 0:18:51.680 --> 0:18:54.600 what it's trying to accomplish. He agreed, He said absolutely, Yeah, 0:18:55.160 --> 0:18:58.080 you need to explain things and you want to try 0:18:58.119 --> 0:19:01.600 to win over nonbelievers. But he is very skeptical that 0:19:01.680 --> 0:19:08.000 invoking supply side economics would warm the hearts of rights 0:19:08.040 --> 0:19:11.360 on board. Well, we're definitely living in interesting political times. 0:19:11.600 --> 0:19:13.840 Chris Connin, thank you so much. Federal Reserve in US 0:19:13.840 --> 0:19:17.080 Economy reporter at Bloomberg News. Joe Webber, editor of Business Week, 0:19:17.160 --> 0:19:20.600 checked out that remarks in the new issue. This is 0:19:20.640 --> 0:19:24.560 Bloomberg Business Week with Carol Masser and Bloomberg Quick Takes. 0:19:24.640 --> 0:19:28.600 Tim Stinovic on Bloomberg Radio. Our Next UT's been investing 0:19:28.600 --> 0:19:32.120 in bitcoin and blockchain technology for almost a decade, founding 0:19:32.119 --> 0:19:35.720 Perfect Ventures back in It's an early stage VC fund 0:19:35.760 --> 0:19:39.000 focused on decentralization. So Tim, they're looking at the convergence 0:19:39.040 --> 0:19:42.639 of blockchain technology, machine learning, IoT and security and a 0:19:42.640 --> 0:19:44.960 lot more. We're talking Jolic, job and Putra. She's found 0:19:44.960 --> 0:19:47.400 her in managing partner at Future Perfect Venture. She joined 0:19:47.440 --> 0:19:50.640 us on the phone from Miami. Um, Jollic, it's great 0:19:50.680 --> 0:19:52.080 to chat with you again. It's been a few years 0:19:52.080 --> 0:19:53.439 since you and I have been able to speak. I 0:19:53.440 --> 0:19:56.120 mean even even when we we spoke a few years ago. 0:19:56.320 --> 0:19:58.360 You were early into crypto then, but you've been doing 0:19:58.400 --> 0:20:00.359 this for for close to a decade. I want to 0:20:00.359 --> 0:20:02.680 talk about cryptos moves today. It's something that I spoke 0:20:02.720 --> 0:20:04.760 about on bloomber TV a few minutes ago when I 0:20:04.800 --> 0:20:08.200 referenced that bitcoin is higher by ten right now, it's 0:20:08.200 --> 0:20:12.119 increasingly looking like it's trading like a tech stock, like 0:20:12.119 --> 0:20:16.640 like Amazon for example. How do you explain the correlation there? Well, 0:20:16.680 --> 0:20:21.840 in the beginning, we saw bitcoin was quite uncorrelated with 0:20:22.520 --> 0:20:25.800 the equity market. In the early days of bitcoin, and 0:20:26.080 --> 0:20:29.760 part of this story there is that it was created 0:20:29.880 --> 0:20:34.359 to be a self sovereign UH financial asset, a store 0:20:34.440 --> 0:20:41.320 of value where government policy would not influence the price action. 0:20:41.520 --> 0:20:46.920 But as we've seen more hedge funds, corporate treasuries, uh 0:20:47.040 --> 0:20:52.840 more institutional investors get into the bitcoin UH market. We've 0:20:52.840 --> 0:20:56.240 seen more and more correlation there and and so that's 0:20:56.280 --> 0:20:58.960 where we've seen the price action very much, I'd say 0:20:58.960 --> 0:21:03.280 over the last couple of months especially, has been very correlated. 0:21:03.640 --> 0:21:06.359 Like you know, you've been involved in this space for 0:21:06.400 --> 0:21:09.040 a long time, longer and at a time when a 0:21:09.119 --> 0:21:11.520 lot of people were questioning what it was or not 0:21:11.560 --> 0:21:13.760 really being a believer it's it's certainly gotten a lot 0:21:13.760 --> 0:21:17.280 more legitimization today then versus where we were roughly a 0:21:17.320 --> 0:21:20.439 decade or so ago. How should we be thinking about 0:21:20.560 --> 0:21:24.840 cryptocurrencies were still I feel like trying to classify it 0:21:25.560 --> 0:21:32.320 collectible currency, commodity, Like, how how do you think about it? Well, 0:21:32.440 --> 0:21:35.439 our thesis from the beginning in two thousand fourteen was 0:21:35.480 --> 0:21:40.800 that blockchain technology, which underpins Bitcoin and what makes itself 0:21:40.880 --> 0:21:45.719 sovereign and decentralized through its computer network, that this blockchain 0:21:45.840 --> 0:21:49.440 technology was going to create ten x the value of 0:21:49.520 --> 0:21:54.159 the Internet simply because they would enable people all around 0:21:54.160 --> 0:21:57.680 the world to UH to transact directly with each other. 0:21:58.000 --> 0:22:00.320 That you can create new assets from being able to 0:22:00.400 --> 0:22:04.200 fractionalize the real estate a building, and you could turn 0:22:05.080 --> 0:22:08.639 a fractionalized piece of a real estate building into UH 0:22:08.680 --> 0:22:12.639 an asset that then can be tradeable um through blockchain 0:22:13.080 --> 0:22:17.240 uh technology and networks. So UM we look at it 0:22:17.359 --> 0:22:21.160 very broadly and and and the reason tokens and crypto 0:22:21.320 --> 0:22:24.200 is an important part of that is they enable the 0:22:24.240 --> 0:22:29.120 incentsive network to work properly behind this, this blockchain network 0:22:29.200 --> 0:22:34.440 and UM and and so we think different cryptocurrencies will 0:22:34.480 --> 0:22:38.119 serve different purposes. Bitcoin right now has become a store 0:22:38.200 --> 0:22:42.480 of value uh kin to gold, a digital gold. People 0:22:42.520 --> 0:22:45.520 hold it when they are worried about inflation, when they're 0:22:45.560 --> 0:22:51.520 worried about government policies devaluing uh the local currencies. So 0:22:51.760 --> 0:22:55.640 um so, so bitcoin has very much fallen into that narrative. 0:22:55.640 --> 0:22:58.680 Eftherium has been underpinning a lot of the growth of 0:22:58.720 --> 0:23:02.440 the n f T s. Um it's become currency to 0:23:02.440 --> 0:23:04.520 to buy these n s T s and so to 0:23:04.600 --> 0:23:07.119 access the n f T s you need to hold ETHEREUM. 0:23:07.400 --> 0:23:10.159 So that is serving um you know, a different purpose, 0:23:10.200 --> 0:23:13.840 its currency in this metaverse world. And we'll see other 0:23:13.920 --> 0:23:18.760 cryptos that that warm and get established to to serve 0:23:18.760 --> 0:23:20.760 different purposes. Just like you know, we don't have one 0:23:20.800 --> 0:23:23.879 internet company, right we we have UM, we have the Amazons, 0:23:23.880 --> 0:23:27.880 we have Googles, we have UM infrastructure companies and and 0:23:27.920 --> 0:23:33.240 so we think that same opportunity UH is going to 0:23:33.280 --> 0:23:36.600 exist within the cryptocurrency market. What are the opportunities that 0:23:36.600 --> 0:23:38.960