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Speaker 1: zero seven one one seven for confidential help in Michigan

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Speaker 1: one eight seventh seven s t o P in Louisiana

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Speaker 1: called the Tennessee Red Line one eight nine or visit

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Speaker 1: one eight Gambler dot net in West Virginia. Welcome to

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Speaker 1: the Favorites the Podcast from the Volume Podcast Network. I

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Speaker 1: am Chad Mellman, Chief Content Officer of the Action Network.

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Speaker 1: We are heading into the Sweet sixteen of Marge Madness.

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Speaker 1: We are getting through the tournament a glorious, glorious tournament,

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Speaker 1: ratings up, upsets happening, blue Bloods, advancing coach k sneaking

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Speaker 1: in beating time is. It's been a phenomenal tournament. We're

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Speaker 1: gonna break it all down with b J Cunningham and

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Speaker 1: with Stucky, who have been covering it all for the

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Speaker 1: Action Network, two of our college basketball Action Network analysts

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Speaker 1: and experts. Before we get there, let me bring in

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Speaker 1: my co host, might be Ff, my companion Mike and

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Speaker 1: Padre professional Better Simon Hunter. Chad, Buddy, I gotta do

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Speaker 1: a little house get dude. We can't even get forty

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Speaker 1: eight hours between tapings of the show without something ridiculous

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Speaker 1: happening in the NFL. Yesterday, Tyreek Hill getting traded from

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Speaker 1: the Chiefs to the Dolphins. What do you think, Yeah, Madness,

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Speaker 1: I mean, I think it's hilarious that they moved from

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Speaker 1: seventy to one to thirty five to one to win

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Speaker 1: a Super Bowl. Like that's one of the more more

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Speaker 1: bizarre movements I've ever seen. But uh, I gotta do

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Speaker 1: some housekeeping on I in fact did make an Instagram

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Speaker 1: at Simon Hunter NFL, and people took a joke the

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Speaker 1: wrong way. If I tweet on Twitter, unless I'm giving

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Speaker 1: out picks, I'm ba castinger. I'm joking. Twitter is a

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Speaker 1: hellish place. It's a trolling place, and I will usually

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Speaker 1: joke on there. I do not have a publicist. Chad

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Speaker 1: is my publicist. I don't actually have a publicist. Chad

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Speaker 1: said that I need to do more stuff for social media,

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Speaker 1: and I, you know, I can't you TikTok yet. I

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Speaker 1: mean maybe maybe I'm dipping my toes though with Instagram.

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Speaker 1: So um, I'm eventually started doing live stuff. I know

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Speaker 1: there's a ton of NFL stuff going on. We'll figure

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Speaker 1: something out, but um, yeah, that is my profile. That

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Speaker 1: is real. I do have an Instagram account now, and

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Speaker 1: I wasn't really hacked. I did actually pick Ukon to

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Speaker 1: win it all. People people thought I really did get hacked.

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Speaker 1: I didn't get hacked. Uh, I did pick UKN. I

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Speaker 1: think that's back to back years now. The team I

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Speaker 1: picked to win it all got knocked out on the

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Speaker 1: first Thursday games. So yeah, I'm I'm I'm really good

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Speaker 1: at college basketball. Relieves you have the burden of having

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Speaker 1: to be stressed. Like my friends Stucky and b J.

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Speaker 1: I'm following you now, Simon Hunter NFL on Instagram. I

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Speaker 1: just did it while you were talking. I'm excited about that. Um,

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Speaker 1: all right, Stucky in b J Uh, Stucky, I want

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Speaker 1: to start with you the very first question. I've had

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Speaker 1: a lot of upsets. Um, if you're reseating the turnament

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Speaker 1: right now, West, East, South, Midwest, who are your top

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Speaker 1: two seeds in each region? Um, well, we're not gonna

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Speaker 1: look at I've gotta look at the regions. But by

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Speaker 1: the way, thanks for having me. Overall, I'll pull up

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Speaker 1: the Bractes sect. But overall, if I would received the

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Speaker 1: entire tournament, one seeds of the Gonzaga, Arizona, Houston and Kansas,

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Speaker 1: two seeds Villanova Perdue, Duke in u c l A.

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Speaker 1: Three seeds Texas Tech in the two and three are

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Speaker 1: very similar. I mean I have Duke a little ahead

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Speaker 1: of Texas Tech. But the margin is very, very slim.

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Speaker 1: But Texas Tech could be the first number three, then

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Speaker 1: North Carolina, Arkansas, Michigan. Just to show you U c

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Speaker 1: l A is my last number two. My third number

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Speaker 1: three is North Counta. They played each other. The margin

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Speaker 1: there is less than a point on a neutral court,

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Speaker 1: and the four seeds will be Providence and then A.

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Speaker 1: You know, Miami. I was staying in a big drop

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Speaker 1: off to St. Peter's, which would be the sixteenth seed.

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Speaker 1: So if that was the case, we see the tournament,

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Speaker 1: I mean some some conference tournaments to this, you would

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Speaker 1: have Gonzaga playing St. Peter's. The only matchups that would

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Speaker 1: still hold would be Kansas versus Providence, in Villanova versus Michigan.

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Speaker 1: And if we did recede, interestingly enough, we'd have four

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Speaker 1: days of talking Duke Carolina because that would be the matchup.

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Speaker 1: Based on my power ratings, that would have been amazing.

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Speaker 1: Providence is a fascinating team and b J, I want

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Speaker 1: to get your take on this also in the receding

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Speaker 1: in a second look, it's one of those teams that

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Speaker 1: a lot of people thought would get knocked out in

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Speaker 1: the first round, thought they might have been overseated. Their

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Speaker 1: metrics were terrible, analytics were terrible, and yet here they

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Speaker 1: are surprising everybody and breaking through into the Sweet sixteen.

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Speaker 1: B J. I don't think you like Providence when the

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Speaker 1: tournament began, not at all. No. I I think I

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Speaker 1: said it on BBC a long time ago. But there's

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Speaker 1: just something paganistic going on with Providence this year that

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Speaker 1: I just cannot put my finger on. Analytically. I mean,

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Speaker 1: if you look at shock quality, they should have lost.

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Speaker 1: Actually they're in the last two games, even though they

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Speaker 1: beat Richmond by what was it, twenty eight points, they actually,

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Speaker 1: based on the quality of shots, they should have lost

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Speaker 1: by two points. So I don't really know what's going

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Speaker 1: on with them, Chad. I can't figure them out analytically.

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Speaker 1: It doesn't make any sense. So an analytics guy like me,

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Speaker 1: I've just kind of thrown my hands up and said,

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Speaker 1: you know what, they'll probably beat Kansas by twenty in

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Speaker 1: this next round, but you know what, they're on a

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Speaker 1: historic run, and you know what, keep riding that lucky

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Speaker 1: rabbits foot all the way to the title. Alright, So

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Speaker 1: Gonzaga number one seeder is stuck in that Arizona also

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Speaker 1: number one seed. I do agree with Stucky that Houston

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Speaker 1: should also if we reseed, it should be a one seed,

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Speaker 1: and then Kansas as a two seed. I'm gonna disagree

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Speaker 1: a little bit on stuff. I know there's the margin

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Speaker 1: fair is a little bit. It's very close. I have

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Speaker 1: Texas Tech as a two seed along with Perdue Villanova

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Speaker 1: in u c. L A. And then three seeds Duke

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Speaker 1: North Carolina, Michigan in Arkansas, and then I agree with

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Speaker 1: him on the four seeds. I would stay at Miami,

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Speaker 1: Providence and St. Peter's as four seeds. So the Houston

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Speaker 1: Arizona game is gonna be absolutely fascinating for two teams

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Speaker 1: that really probably should be. Like Stuck, he's already said

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Speaker 1: one seeds. But yeah, if I had to receive the tournament,

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Speaker 1: I think gonzag in Arizona are pretty much in a

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Speaker 1: class as their own going forward in the tournament. Well, look,

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Speaker 1: we got gonzag In Arizona playing tonight. We got four

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Speaker 1: more games tomorrow night. This is Thursday afternoon. We're recording this.

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Speaker 1: Arkansas Gonzaga is the first game on CBS in our

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Speaker 1: night of doubleheaders. Here they are nine and a half

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Speaker 1: point favorites against Arkansas BJ. You first, a lot of

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Speaker 1: problems for Arkansas on this matchup, and that's why you

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Speaker 1: see them as you know, such big underdogs like first off,

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Speaker 1: Garden Gonzaga number one team in the country at two

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Speaker 1: point field goal percential lout in philgal percentagel out at

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Speaker 1: the rim Withdrew Timmy and Ched Holmgren. Arkansas is a

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Speaker 1: terrible shooting team two or thirty seventh and effective filial

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Speaker 1: percentage and side the top three hundred three point field

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Speaker 1: a percentage. So you know, the Hogs attacked the rim

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Speaker 1: at a very high rate. Uh, and it's not really

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Speaker 1: gonna work in this type of matchup. And if you

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Speaker 1: look back to their schedule, you know the one team

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Speaker 1: they played that has you know, size similar to Gonzaga

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Speaker 1: down well was Auburn and obviously they won that game

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Speaker 1: against Jabari Smith and Walker Kesler, but uh, they weren't

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Speaker 1: that effective at the rim, only around point nine points

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Speaker 1: per possession at the room, which is actually really bad. Really,

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Speaker 1: the only chance Arkansas has in this game is for

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Speaker 1: it to be played in transition, similar to what Memphis did.

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Speaker 1: They aren't really effective in the half court or in

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Speaker 1: transition their own hundred fiftie in both, but Gonzaga is

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Speaker 1: outside the top one fifty in transition defense and their

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Speaker 1: fourth and half court defense. So Memphis was able to

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Speaker 1: put up over one point one points per possession against Gonzagas.

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Speaker 1: So the over this game, funny enough, is basically set

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Speaker 1: exactly at what the Memphis Gonzaga game was. So uh

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Speaker 1: for me, I am really looking at the total here,

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Speaker 1: over one fifty four and a half. I know it's

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Speaker 1: it's it's high, but I mean, Arkansas really their only

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Speaker 1: chance in this game is they gotta play it up

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Speaker 1: and down. That's what Gonzaga absolutely loves to do, and

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Speaker 1: they'll do that happily the entire game. So uh, And Gonzaga, obviously,

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Speaker 1: you know, you look at their metrics number one team

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Speaker 1: and two point filcal percentage and you know, I could

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Speaker 1: go through it all, but basically the best offense in

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Speaker 1: college basketball. So I'm leaning towards over a hundred fifty

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Speaker 1: four and a half points. As far as the spread

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Speaker 1: is concerned, I think the number is about right, but

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Speaker 1: just a lot of advantages for Gonzaga here against Arkansas. Stuck. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: I have no official play here this would be. This

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Speaker 1: is probably a really good game if you want to

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Speaker 1: get in live. Both teams want to play up and down.

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Speaker 1: Arkansas is really streaky. Gonzaga goes on big runs. So

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Speaker 1: if you're looking for you know, if you like I

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Speaker 1: kind of like Arkansas, I kind of like Gonzaga, it's

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Speaker 1: a good chance you might be able to get a

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Speaker 1: better number live. Arkansas also been known to come out

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Speaker 1: and start slow, so you might get a better number

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Speaker 1: on them, more so than Gonzaga. But it's not a

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Speaker 1: great matchup of Arkansas. Arkansas wants to get to the line.

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Speaker 1: That's really where they live. Gonzaga doesn't really fath you know,

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Speaker 1: Arkansas wants to pressure you. It's it doesn't turn it over.

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Speaker 1: And what they did against Memphis and Georgia State, two

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Speaker 1: teams that do pressure you, they only turned that over

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Speaker 1: seven times in each game. I thought that was really

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Speaker 1: telling for this particular matchup. You know, Arkansas wants to

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Speaker 1: get on the offensive glass. Nzaga is great on the

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Speaker 1: defensive class So unless j D Note Arkansas's guard who's

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Speaker 1: just very up and down, he can get into foul trouble.

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Speaker 1: Unless he's a huge day, he's gotta go for like

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Speaker 1: or thirty. Here. This is a good Zaga win and

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Speaker 1: probably a good Zagga covered, but the line is pretty sharp.

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Speaker 1: I think that if you want to bet this, maybe

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Speaker 1: look for an opportunity live. But it's just not the

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Speaker 1: best matchup for Arkansas. This is interesting. This is the

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Speaker 1: most bet on game in the Action app right now

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Speaker 1: and as twelve k more bets on it than the

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Speaker 1: Duke Texas Tech, which, obviously I'm a Duke kants my

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Speaker 1: favorite game. So next up one the first one. Everyone

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Speaker 1: you you look on Thursday at the first round of

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Speaker 1: the tournament Friday, the first game is always the most

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Speaker 1: bet Everyone just can't wait and they'll just stay half

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Speaker 1: the beat that first game that starts. Love it? Um

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Speaker 1: the Michigan Nova. The next game Big ten versus Big

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Speaker 1: East Michigan plus five? Is that? Is that too many

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Speaker 1: points for this Michigan team? What do you think? Stuff now?

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Speaker 1: I think that I actually I make it a little

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Speaker 1: bit higher. Um. I leaned towards the Villanova here. I

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Speaker 1: might look to get him better number live. There's look,

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Speaker 1: Villanova runs pick and roll with Colin Gillespie. Justin Moore

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Speaker 1: as at a top fifteen rate nationally. They do it

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Speaker 1: as well as anybody. And that's where Michigan struggles there

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Speaker 1: in like the thirteenth percentile first synergy that's really bad

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Speaker 1: covering pick and roll. So I think their guards could

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Speaker 1: be exposed here. Hunter Dickinson does have a big advantage

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Speaker 1: in the post on the other end, but I assumed

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Speaker 1: Jay Right will come up with a good game plan

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Speaker 1: to contain him, or just say look at yours. We

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Speaker 1: won't let everyone else beat us from three. So you know,

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Speaker 1: it's the fairly sharp line actually with lean Villanova. The

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Speaker 1: thing to keep in mind here is that if this

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Speaker 1: game was close late, Villanova's leading Villanova probably the best

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Speaker 1: freethrow shooting deven the country, maybe of all time. Mean

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Speaker 1: the final few minutes of a game, they have a

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Speaker 1: couple of guards who are just nine, who do not miss,

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Speaker 1: who do not even hit the rim. So you know,

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Speaker 1: Villanova's up two to three to four late in Michigan

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Speaker 1: as the foul that's gonna go to six, and then

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Speaker 1: in Michigan mrs is all the sudden that's at eight

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Speaker 1: and that could end up swinging this. So I think

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Speaker 1: Villanova gets it done. But fascinating matchup because I think

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Speaker 1: the Nova pick and Roll was gonna have a huge

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Speaker 1: advantage in addition to their guards, you know, Gillespie and

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Speaker 1: company backing down the smaller Michigan guards. I think that

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Speaker 1: when they invert their offense, they can have success there.

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Speaker 1: So I would lean Villanova, but line is pretty sharp.

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Speaker 1: Might look for it live the free throws late, might

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Speaker 1: end up swinging this one. Yeah, I tend to agree.

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Speaker 1: I do lean towards Villanova. I actually kind of like

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Speaker 1: the under in this matchup. I mean, I think it's

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Speaker 1: gonna you're gonna see a very similar game to the

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Speaker 1: Ohio State Villanova game, where Villanova is just gonna try

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Speaker 1: to slow this game down to their snails pace. Um,

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Speaker 1: it's basically be played in the half court and to

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Speaker 1: echo off of stuckies, you know, point about Hunter Dickinson.

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Speaker 1: You know, Villanova obviously they don't have a height to

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Speaker 1: deal with them. And I mean they tell us guys

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Speaker 1: six ft eight. But against Ohio State was a top

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Speaker 1: five frequency team turns a post ups. They only allowed

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Speaker 1: eight points on four team post upsets. Uh. And they're

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Speaker 1: actually in the Big East. They've faced five teams who

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Speaker 1: are in the top forty in terms of average heights,

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Speaker 1: so it's not like they're not used to playing this

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Speaker 1: type of height. And they're also the top thirty team

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Speaker 1: in terms of points for possession allowed at the rim.

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Speaker 1: So I don't think that Dickinson is going to be

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Speaker 1: as dominant as everybody thinks. J writes a great schemer

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Speaker 1: like Stuck. He already said to hook Hm up with

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Speaker 1: a good game plan. I think about Villanova. You know, obviously,

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Speaker 1: like study said, they have the great advantage in pick

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Speaker 1: and roll. But they're obviously a high frequency three point

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Speaker 1: shooting team. But what's weird about Villanova's They don't get

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Speaker 1: a lot of open three pointers. They're three and thirty

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Speaker 1: second in open three point rate and Michigan's fourth in

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Speaker 1: the country and allowing open three pointers, So a lot

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Speaker 1: of Nova shots. I don't think you're gonna be the

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Speaker 1: highest quality. So I actually do like the under a

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Speaker 1: hundred thirty five and a half points. I think Villanovo slow,

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Speaker 1: is paced down, keep it in the half court, and

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Speaker 1: was both defenses having some nice advantages. I think that

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Speaker 1: it will let itself to a low scoring, fair way

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Speaker 1: fast under under scare me right now in it with

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Speaker 1: a team like Villanova because of what Stuck He said

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Speaker 1: that you get into the last couple of minutes and

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Speaker 1: it's playing at a pace that is so decidedly under

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Speaker 1: and then Michigan is behind and has to foul constantly,

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Speaker 1: and Nova just piles it on with with the free

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Speaker 1: throws and you see it slipping away. The last two

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Speaker 1: games of the night Texas Tech Duke Houston Arizona. Let's

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Speaker 1: start with Texas Tech and Duke. Texas Tech is a

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Speaker 1: one point favorite. Both games are aligned really really close.

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Speaker 1: B J. We've talked about Duke. Every game is a

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Speaker 1: celebration because it's potentially Coach K's last game. If I

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Speaker 1: spend every waking moment trying to just beat you, eventually

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Speaker 1: that becomes a shallow life. That can't be what motivates me.

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Speaker 1: Even when Duke was losing to Michigan State, when they

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Speaker 1: lost that lead, I still didn't believe Duke was going

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Speaker 1: to lose that game. This team, they can look amazing

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Speaker 1: and then they can look like what they are, which

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Speaker 1: is a bunch of really talent to freshmen and we're

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Speaker 1: going to take off for the NBA. Well, it's funny

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Speaker 1: about this match. If I saw on Twitter that I

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Speaker 1: think it's a high the biggest discrepancy in terms of

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Speaker 1: average age in a starting five and say term and

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Speaker 1: matchup effort. I think Duke is around like eighteen and

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Speaker 1: a half years old, in Texas Tech is like twenty

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Speaker 1: three and a half because they have a bunch of

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Speaker 1: you know, grad transfers. So not that that plays too

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Speaker 1: much in the handicap. I just thought it was kind

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Speaker 1: of funny. Duke. Obviously they love to get out and

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Speaker 1: run in transition, they're very effective in doing so, but

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Speaker 1: Texas Tech is a very good defensive team in transition.

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Speaker 1: Duke obviously has been struggling defending and transition. They're outside

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Speaker 1: the top two hundred. So if they want to try

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Speaker 1: to play this game in the half court to take

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Speaker 1: away Texas tax advantage and transition where even though the

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Speaker 1: Red Raiders don't spend a lot of time in transition,

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Speaker 1: there are still a top five team in terms of efficiency.

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Speaker 1: Texas Tech is the number one defense in the country

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Speaker 1: and half court defense. So Duke is kind of in

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Speaker 1: this weird position where it's like, Okay, we want to

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Speaker 1: play in transition, but we're bad defensively, so if we

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Speaker 1: want to play in the half court, well, we gotta

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Speaker 1: go against number one half court defense in the entire country.

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Speaker 1: It's it's a it's a weird type of scheme type matchup.

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Speaker 1: Duke offensively is a high frequency, cutting and isolation offense

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Speaker 1: which works against most opponents because they have size and

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Speaker 1: athleticism and advantages. But it's not only gonna work against

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Speaker 1: Texas Tech because their top five in defending both of

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Speaker 1: those type of sets. And really the only way to

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Speaker 1: beat Texas Tech is you've got to hit their hit

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Speaker 1: shots from behind the arc, which Duke is capable of doing.

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Speaker 1: But it puts a lot of pressure on the Blue

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Speaker 1: Devils to hit those shots from three point rage on

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Speaker 1: the flip side. We've talked about a lot, but Duke

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Speaker 1: really can't stop anything right now. There. You know, they've

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Speaker 1: played two sub two hundred offenses. They can't attack the

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Speaker 1: rim effectively. Duke can't turn anybody over right now. They're

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Speaker 1: outside the top three internal percentage, which is one of

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Speaker 1: Texas Tech's main weaknesses. They're struggling to keep teams off

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Speaker 1: the offensive glass. Texas Tech is the top forty offensive

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Speaker 1: rebounding team, and like I already said, they can't defend

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Speaker 1: in transition. So if Texas Tech wants to get out

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Speaker 1: in transition. They should be able to score basically at will.

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Speaker 1: So I think it's a lot of positives for Texas

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Speaker 1: Tech in this matchup. So I am on the Red

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Speaker 1: Raiders on the money line and minus one of team,

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Speaker 1: and I think that they're gonna end coach case career tonight.

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Speaker 1: You need to trust somebody you don't know at all.

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Speaker 1: I can't quite get there, but I'm not playing dude.

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Speaker 1: But Duke does have the individual talent to score on

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Speaker 1: this elite defense, Like you need just individual playmakers, and

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Speaker 1: you need to make threes, which they can make threas,

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Speaker 1: and they have individual playmakers who can just take the

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Speaker 1: ball late in the shock, how can make plays. I

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Speaker 1: actually like the under here. I think the Texas text. Look,

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Speaker 1: Duke's defense has been a mess, and if you look back,

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Speaker 1: they've gone over I don't know, eight of nine games.

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Speaker 1: But I don't think Texas Texas offense is the offense

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Speaker 1: that can really exploit some of the issues off the ball.

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Speaker 1: I think the Duke can really match up individually here,

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Speaker 1: and this Texas Tech offense is just ugly and they

359
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Speaker 1: go through long droughts and I don't think Duke's offense

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Speaker 1: is gonna have it easy, and I think you're gonna

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Speaker 1: see this just become a half court grinder. So I

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Speaker 1: really like the under and chat you know, you said

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Speaker 1: unders are scary. Duke unders are particular scary, but split

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Speaker 1: some with the first half, and you know with this,

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Speaker 1: when spreads are really tight, it's your better chance. If

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Speaker 1: this is gonna be a close skin and a blowout,

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Speaker 1: which means there's overtime risk, there's risk of fouls late.

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Speaker 1: It's the last game of the year, right for one

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Speaker 1: of these teams, so if you're down, you're gonna foul

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Speaker 1: until the very end. Tournament games foulings up twenty in

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Speaker 1: the last two minutes. So if you like an under

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Speaker 1: like I do, here, put some on the first half

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Speaker 1: under as well, uh, you know, for some satity and

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Speaker 1: then partial hedge against some of those laking situations with

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Speaker 1: fouling and potential over time. But I think this turns

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Speaker 1: into a half court ground. Of these two teams played

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Speaker 1: like three or four years ago and Zion was a

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Speaker 1: Duke on a neutral court in Madison Square Garden. Final

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Speaker 1: scores like sixty eight. Wouldn't be shocked if we saw

380
00:18:36,320 --> 00:18:39,919
Speaker 1: something similar, Duke's defense has to just come out and guard,

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Speaker 1: which they haven't been able to do. But the Texas

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Speaker 1: Tech offense can, you know, kind of beat itself at times.

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Speaker 1: The fouling in the final two minutes would be even

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Speaker 1: compared to previous years if not for U n C.

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Speaker 1: Baylor or Perdue Texas. But yeah, that was There's been

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Speaker 1: a couple of rough shows so far, some real ship shows.

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Speaker 1: Spoken like a true leader, which is all Shazewski says

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Speaker 1: he ever wanted to be. That's what I was trained

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Speaker 1: to do. That's why I went to West Point to

390
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Speaker 1: be a leader. Yeah, this game, I honestly, looking at

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Speaker 1: just the reverse line of movement would scare me off.

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Speaker 1: The Duke Duke has literally been getting all the money,

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Speaker 1: all the bets, and the line just keeps moving towards

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Speaker 1: TESSAs Texas Tech. So obviously a professional group has made

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Speaker 1: a stance and they're taking Texas Tech here. So I

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Speaker 1: would say be careful if you're a Duke fan like me,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna wait and hopefully get an inline game, get

398
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Speaker 1: a better number than this, because, like Stuffy he said,

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Speaker 1: I really don't feel like there's that much value right now.

400
00:19:34,880 --> 00:19:37,719
Speaker 1: Um with this number, it's just it's just such a

401
00:19:37,760 --> 00:19:41,080
Speaker 1: low number. But the next matchup, Houston Arizona. You guys

402
00:19:41,119 --> 00:19:43,479
Speaker 1: already talked about you reseated it. You both had Houston

403
00:19:43,560 --> 00:19:46,080
Speaker 1: as a one seed. This is obviously the best game

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Speaker 1: of the Thursday Friday Slate. Who do you guys like

405
00:19:49,080 --> 00:19:50,840
Speaker 1: in this match? We'll start with you, b J. I

406
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Speaker 1: don't really like a side of this one. I think

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Speaker 1: this is a game you can jump in on live.

408
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Speaker 1: I'll be honest. I was waiting for this line to

409
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Speaker 1: come open, obviously, with Arizona, you know, blowing that lead

410
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Speaker 1: against TCU and having to go to overtime. I was

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Speaker 1: hoping to get Houston at you know, plus three, plus

412
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Speaker 1: three and a half, maybe even four, But now we're

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Speaker 1: down to one and a half. I really don't think

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Speaker 1: there's much value in the line. I mean, it's really

415
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Speaker 1: interesting because you saw how much Arizona struggled keeping TCU

416
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Speaker 1: off the offensive glass. I mean they had twenty offensive

417
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Speaker 1: rebounds against them. Well, Houston is third in the country

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Speaker 1: an offensive rebounding percentage and has way way more efficient

419
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Speaker 1: offense than TCU. Because the horn Frogs basically just relied

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Speaker 1: on offensive rebounds. The entire year. So outside of crashing offense,

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Speaker 1: glass really the way to beat a zonas you've got

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Speaker 1: a knockdown threes and you have to be efficient in transition,

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Speaker 1: which Houston isn't a great three point shooting team, but

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Speaker 1: the r top five top thirty five in terms of

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Speaker 1: efficiency and transition, even if they do play an incredibly

426
00:20:38,440 --> 00:20:41,080
Speaker 1: slow pace. The problem my affairs don't in this matchup

427
00:20:41,160 --> 00:20:43,320
Speaker 1: is they're a very high frequency team and finishing at

428
00:20:43,320 --> 00:20:45,560
Speaker 1: the rim, which you just can't do against Houston. And

429
00:20:45,600 --> 00:20:47,919
Speaker 1: you can ask Illinois about that. They had only eighteen

430
00:20:47,960 --> 00:20:50,960
Speaker 1: points at the room with Kofee Coburn, So it's it's

431
00:20:51,000 --> 00:20:53,200
Speaker 1: just a really difficult matchup for Arizona. But on the

432
00:20:53,240 --> 00:20:55,560
Speaker 1: flip side, you know, I don't really trust Houston off

433
00:20:55,600 --> 00:20:58,560
Speaker 1: Houston's offense, they can go through these kind of rolls

434
00:20:58,560 --> 00:21:01,440
Speaker 1: and stretches. You know, Arizona obviously they're not they're a

435
00:21:01,480 --> 00:21:03,359
Speaker 1: good three point shooting team. But you know, if you

436
00:21:03,400 --> 00:21:06,520
Speaker 1: watched you know, Chris against uh TCO, he's their main

437
00:21:06,560 --> 00:21:09,399
Speaker 1: three point shooter. He went one of ten and almost

438
00:21:09,400 --> 00:21:11,439
Speaker 1: took them out of the game. So I think this

439
00:21:11,560 --> 00:21:13,680
Speaker 1: is a good chance to get on on this live

440
00:21:13,960 --> 00:21:15,359
Speaker 1: I think this game is going to come down to,

441
00:21:15,440 --> 00:21:18,000
Speaker 1: you know, the final few possessions. So if one team

442
00:21:18,040 --> 00:21:20,159
Speaker 1: comes out hot and gets a big lead, I think

443
00:21:20,160 --> 00:21:22,199
Speaker 1: you can jump in on whoever's down to get a

444
00:21:22,200 --> 00:21:24,840
Speaker 1: better number. I can guarantee I will not be up

445
00:21:24,840 --> 00:21:27,320
Speaker 1: for this game. That's the one thing we can bet

446
00:21:27,359 --> 00:21:29,440
Speaker 1: on is that I'll be sleeping and I'll learn the

447
00:21:29,480 --> 00:21:31,800
Speaker 1: score in the morning when I roll over and check

448
00:21:31,880 --> 00:21:34,439
Speaker 1: my phone. Wait, chat, will there be any matchup that

449
00:21:34,520 --> 00:21:36,440
Speaker 1: you would that could be played at this this time?

450
00:21:36,440 --> 00:21:39,040
Speaker 1: Stought that you would stay up for Duke Carolina was playing.

451
00:21:39,080 --> 00:21:41,920
Speaker 1: Would you stand for that? It's honestly, it's not even

452
00:21:42,000 --> 00:21:45,359
Speaker 1: about the teams. It's just about what can my body handle?

453
00:21:45,760 --> 00:21:51,960
Speaker 1: Like last week, Friday night was a full on sports explosion.

454
00:21:52,320 --> 00:21:54,520
Speaker 1: My kid and I we started watching the games as

455
00:21:54,520 --> 00:21:57,280
Speaker 1: early as we could in the afternoon. We were watching

456
00:21:57,280 --> 00:22:01,360
Speaker 1: them until the last game ended. We had multiple screens

457
00:22:01,440 --> 00:22:04,280
Speaker 1: up on one scream. At one point we had the

458
00:22:04,359 --> 00:22:07,080
Speaker 1: Bulls and the Suns because they were playing late. The

459
00:22:07,119 --> 00:22:09,120
Speaker 1: Bulls were playing, you know, and the ten o'clock tip

460
00:22:09,119 --> 00:22:13,119
Speaker 1: off in Phoenix. It's only about you know, what is

461
00:22:13,160 --> 00:22:17,160
Speaker 1: my current body clock status. It's not it's not matchup.

462
00:22:17,240 --> 00:22:19,480
Speaker 1: It's not match up at all. It's only that you

463
00:22:19,600 --> 00:22:25,800
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464
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492
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Speaker 1: dot net. In West Virginia, we got the Cinderella story,

493
00:24:06,400 --> 00:24:10,280
Speaker 1: the peacocks from St. Peter's from Northern New Jersey going

494
00:24:10,320 --> 00:24:13,320
Speaker 1: against the Purdue boiler Makers. I'm a little torn on this.

495
00:24:13,520 --> 00:24:17,840
Speaker 1: As a one time resident of Jersey, Northern New Jersey,

496
00:24:18,040 --> 00:24:21,680
Speaker 1: I love the state. I love like the attitude of

497
00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:24,479
Speaker 1: the St. Peter's plays with But even though I went

498
00:24:24,520 --> 00:24:27,760
Speaker 1: to Indiana when I grew up in the suburbs of Chicago.

499
00:24:28,040 --> 00:24:31,040
Speaker 1: There was a guy from our area who went to

500
00:24:31,080 --> 00:24:34,520
Speaker 1: play at Purdue. That team with Jean Katie, like was

501
00:24:34,560 --> 00:24:36,399
Speaker 1: always ranked number one and never made it to the

502
00:24:36,440 --> 00:24:39,400
Speaker 1: Final four. So I had a little soft spot for Purdue.

503
00:24:39,840 --> 00:24:41,960
Speaker 1: And it's still been so long since like they had

504
00:24:42,000 --> 00:24:44,000
Speaker 1: that round, and now Matt Painter has been there a while,

505
00:24:44,040 --> 00:24:46,760
Speaker 1: They've had great teams. I know they're gonna win this game.

506
00:24:47,119 --> 00:24:48,879
Speaker 1: In advance, I would like Purdue to get to the

507
00:24:48,880 --> 00:24:51,760
Speaker 1: Final four. Stuck, give me your take on the twelve

508
00:24:51,760 --> 00:24:56,000
Speaker 1: and a half point favorite Purdue boiler Makers against St. Peter's. Yeah. St.

509
00:24:56,000 --> 00:24:59,000
Speaker 1: Peter's from Run, Run, Baby, Run Jim. If you saw

510
00:24:59,640 --> 00:25:02,560
Speaker 1: some of the games last week, their small Jim act

511
00:25:02,600 --> 00:25:05,800
Speaker 1: an incredible story. You look at like their budget and

512
00:25:05,920 --> 00:25:07,879
Speaker 1: Iona was the clear favorite to win that conference. And

513
00:25:07,880 --> 00:25:09,840
Speaker 1: now in the sweet sixteen is a fifteen seat. Only

514
00:25:09,840 --> 00:25:11,600
Speaker 1: two other fifteen seats have ever made it this far.

515
00:25:12,119 --> 00:25:14,520
Speaker 1: Both actually covered in the Sweet six team, but neither

516
00:25:14,680 --> 00:25:17,720
Speaker 1: did win. But yeah, run Baby run gym one of

517
00:25:17,760 --> 00:25:19,080
Speaker 1: the coolest Jim names. By the way, I think I

518
00:25:19,280 --> 00:25:20,639
Speaker 1: think I read the other day that you were just

519
00:25:20,640 --> 00:25:25,520
Speaker 1: talking about Jersey to born to run. Uh the Springsteen song.

520
00:25:25,600 --> 00:25:27,640
Speaker 1: They was supposed to be like the Jersey State song,

521
00:25:27,680 --> 00:25:29,280
Speaker 1: and it went to like the Senate and then someone

522
00:25:29,920 --> 00:25:31,960
Speaker 1: was like brought up that it was about running from

523
00:25:31,960 --> 00:25:43,480
Speaker 1: New Jersey, so they didn't cast anyway. That just that

524
00:25:43,640 --> 00:25:45,840
Speaker 1: just great in my head when I was saying run

525
00:25:45,840 --> 00:25:48,000
Speaker 1: in Jersey. But look, teams in the sweet sixteen there

526
00:25:48,000 --> 00:25:49,760
Speaker 1: are getting double d its have not had a lot

527
00:25:49,760 --> 00:25:52,280
Speaker 1: of success in the past, although I guess said the

528
00:25:52,280 --> 00:25:54,960
Speaker 1: two fifteen seats did cover. St. Peter's is a tough

529
00:25:55,000 --> 00:25:57,639
Speaker 1: match up here talked about the produced Texas game. Produce

530
00:25:57,680 --> 00:26:00,639
Speaker 1: shot forty five three throws against Texas who undersize in

531
00:26:00,640 --> 00:26:03,640
Speaker 1: the middle, but their Texas a lot better athletes in St.

532
00:26:03,640 --> 00:26:06,439
Speaker 1: Peter's produces march the line. All they do is go

533
00:26:06,480 --> 00:26:08,280
Speaker 1: to the free throw line top ten in the country

534
00:26:08,560 --> 00:26:10,760
Speaker 1: and that aspect because they have just two trees inside

535
00:26:10,760 --> 00:26:13,879
Speaker 1: that you can't cover well. St. Peter's bottom ten in

536
00:26:13,960 --> 00:26:17,200
Speaker 1: the country and foul right, very aggressive defense. They can't

537
00:26:17,200 --> 00:26:20,480
Speaker 1: really stop produe inside here. I mean, look, you go

538
00:26:20,480 --> 00:26:22,680
Speaker 1: back to Kentucky game. They were playing Oscar Sheeway. You

539
00:26:22,720 --> 00:26:24,639
Speaker 1: could say, well they beat Kentucky. She had thirty and

540
00:26:24,680 --> 00:26:27,560
Speaker 1: I think fourteen. He did whatever he wanted inside. On

541
00:26:27,640 --> 00:26:30,000
Speaker 1: the other side of the ball, Peters, so this could

542
00:26:30,000 --> 00:26:32,119
Speaker 1: be just a march the free throw line for produce

543
00:26:32,200 --> 00:26:34,400
Speaker 1: over and over again. The other side of the ball,

544
00:26:34,600 --> 00:26:38,600
Speaker 1: Peters relies on two things for offense getting to the line, Well,

545
00:26:38,600 --> 00:26:41,520
Speaker 1: guess what produced also top ten in fault on defense

546
00:26:42,000 --> 00:26:47,560
Speaker 1: and offensive rebounds produce great defensive rebounding team. So I

547
00:26:47,600 --> 00:26:50,199
Speaker 1: think the Cinderella stories probably up. If I had to

548
00:26:50,200 --> 00:26:53,600
Speaker 1: pick a side here, probably go Perdue. I don't show

549
00:26:53,640 --> 00:26:55,440
Speaker 1: a ton of value in the numbers, so I might

550
00:26:55,480 --> 00:26:58,320
Speaker 1: just stay away and root for St. Peter's magic. I mean, look,

551
00:26:58,359 --> 00:27:01,600
Speaker 1: there's the three point line the rest might they need

552
00:27:01,640 --> 00:27:03,880
Speaker 1: them to not call this game tight, but they could

553
00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:05,719
Speaker 1: hit a bunch of threes. Produced could be off and

554
00:27:05,760 --> 00:27:08,000
Speaker 1: maybe we can get a fifteen seed the Elite eight

555
00:27:08,040 --> 00:27:09,880
Speaker 1: for the first time ever. How can you not root

556
00:27:09,960 --> 00:27:13,760
Speaker 1: for that? But from a matchup perspective, it's bad news

557
00:27:13,760 --> 00:27:17,480
Speaker 1: for the Peacocks. J Yeah, I agree, it's it's it's

558
00:27:17,520 --> 00:27:19,639
Speaker 1: a really bad matchup for the Peacocks. You know it's funny.

559
00:27:19,600 --> 00:27:22,800
Speaker 1: I'll send you a thread chat of all the crazy

560
00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:26,040
Speaker 1: things that St. Peter's and their budget. A former assistant

561
00:27:26,080 --> 00:27:28,399
Speaker 1: basically went through all of just the crazy things from

562
00:27:28,400 --> 00:27:31,880
Speaker 1: their boug did that happened, from the gym leaking multiple times,

563
00:27:31,920 --> 00:27:34,080
Speaker 1: from them working in an offense with one inchro of

564
00:27:34,160 --> 00:27:36,600
Speaker 1: water on the floor, Like, it's just it's crazy that

565
00:27:36,680 --> 00:27:38,919
Speaker 1: they actually made it this far. I agree with Stucky,

566
00:27:39,000 --> 00:27:42,080
Speaker 1: it's it's hard because the size that Purdue has inside

567
00:27:42,240 --> 00:27:45,760
Speaker 1: is really a huge advantage against St. Peter's. And like

568
00:27:45,840 --> 00:27:48,560
Speaker 1: I mentioned when I came on for the first round

569
00:27:48,760 --> 00:27:50,960
Speaker 1: breaking on the first round of tournament, St Peter's attacks

570
00:27:51,040 --> 00:27:53,360
Speaker 1: room with the highest frequency of anybody in the country.

571
00:27:53,600 --> 00:27:55,920
Speaker 1: But they're not effective in doing stone. They weren't really

572
00:27:55,960 --> 00:27:59,040
Speaker 1: bad effective against Kentucky or Murray State, and so trying

573
00:27:59,040 --> 00:28:01,240
Speaker 1: to score at the rim against produced size is a

574
00:28:01,240 --> 00:28:03,560
Speaker 1: big problem. They really just have to go berserk from

575
00:28:03,560 --> 00:28:05,560
Speaker 1: a three point line. That's really the only chance that

576
00:28:05,560 --> 00:28:07,520
Speaker 1: they have because like Stuffy said, they're not gonna be

577
00:28:07,520 --> 00:28:10,240
Speaker 1: able to get to the line like they're used to. Uh,

578
00:28:10,280 --> 00:28:12,840
Speaker 1: it's just it's a really, really tough matchup for St. Peter's.

579
00:28:12,880 --> 00:28:16,159
Speaker 1: But they get hot from three. Uh, they could do it.

580
00:28:16,440 --> 00:28:19,680
Speaker 1: So I definitely lean per do with the massive size

581
00:28:19,680 --> 00:28:22,679
Speaker 1: advantages down low, But you know what, Kentucky had massive

582
00:28:22,720 --> 00:28:24,920
Speaker 1: size advantages down low and look what happened to them,

583
00:28:25,000 --> 00:28:27,840
Speaker 1: So who knows what can happen. Perdue is no stranger

584
00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:31,479
Speaker 1: to covering big numbers in the tournament. So far, they're good.

585
00:28:31,480 --> 00:28:34,040
Speaker 1: They're a good big favorite. Yeah. Generally they play these

586
00:28:34,080 --> 00:28:36,199
Speaker 1: main majors that just can't You can't cover seven footers, right,

587
00:28:36,240 --> 00:28:38,680
Speaker 1: they don't have the size, and then it's just produce layout,

588
00:28:38,720 --> 00:28:41,640
Speaker 1: produced dunk, produce layout. Even if they're not hitting their threes,

589
00:28:42,680 --> 00:28:44,760
Speaker 1: it's just a tough matchup when you have that much size.

590
00:28:45,400 --> 00:28:47,600
Speaker 1: I'm heartbroke. You guysn't call them the Peacocks the whole time,

591
00:28:47,680 --> 00:28:49,960
Speaker 1: like you just kept calling them St. Peter's. I mean,

592
00:28:50,000 --> 00:28:52,440
Speaker 1: come on, guys, Peacocks, the Peacocks. Gotta let them fly,

593
00:28:53,000 --> 00:28:57,560
Speaker 1: proud man. I love that they're Also they're the best

594
00:28:57,600 --> 00:29:01,000
Speaker 1: against the spread college basketball team? Is that correct? Season? St?

595
00:29:01,000 --> 00:29:04,760
Speaker 1: Peter's Pea Cocks nineteen and four. I believe you know.

596
00:29:06,160 --> 00:29:08,040
Speaker 1: I love riding those trends, so I'm definitely gonna be

597
00:29:08,080 --> 00:29:10,560
Speaker 1: taking them. I've taken them last two weeks. Did not

598
00:29:10,600 --> 00:29:12,640
Speaker 1: touch the money line either game because I am a coward.

599
00:29:13,000 --> 00:29:14,880
Speaker 1: I'm doing I'm gonna throw a little on the money

600
00:29:14,880 --> 00:29:17,440
Speaker 1: line this time. So look, if it gets close late,

601
00:29:17,680 --> 00:29:20,280
Speaker 1: all the pressure shifts. The pressure. That's what I'm thinking,

602
00:29:20,280 --> 00:29:23,240
Speaker 1: disappointment that they're supposed to win this. So if St.

603
00:29:23,240 --> 00:29:27,040
Speaker 1: Peterson just keep it close and people are crawdle turn

604
00:29:27,200 --> 00:29:30,080
Speaker 1: and you know, it'll get interesting. People's whole thing. They

605
00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:31,840
Speaker 1: don't like it's a whole week of them being celebrated.

606
00:29:31,880 --> 00:29:33,760
Speaker 1: It's like, have you guys seen their school. They're getting

607
00:29:33,760 --> 00:29:36,680
Speaker 1: celebrated by like ten people. It's like they've come back

608
00:29:36,720 --> 00:29:39,960
Speaker 1: to like thousands of thousands of forty thousand people campus.

609
00:29:39,960 --> 00:29:43,480
Speaker 1: It's like a two thousand person campus. So Roberts or

610
00:29:43,560 --> 00:29:46,240
Speaker 1: Roberts had a shot to beat there the fifteen seeds,

611
00:29:46,440 --> 00:29:50,280
Speaker 1: the one of the other three including St. Peter's fifteen

612
00:29:50,280 --> 00:29:51,680
Speaker 1: seeds to get to the sweet sixteed. They had a

613
00:29:51,720 --> 00:29:55,080
Speaker 1: shot to beat Arkansas late. So you never know. I

614
00:29:55,080 --> 00:29:58,560
Speaker 1: love it. So we got next up, Providence versus Kansas

615
00:29:59,120 --> 00:30:01,880
Speaker 1: seven and a half, am, Am I crazy? Is that

616
00:30:01,920 --> 00:30:04,440
Speaker 1: way too many points in this matchup? Where is Kansas

617
00:30:04,440 --> 00:30:06,160
Speaker 1: that legit in your opinion? What what do you think?

618
00:30:07,120 --> 00:30:09,360
Speaker 1: I would sit here and tell you analytically that Kansas

619
00:30:09,440 --> 00:30:11,600
Speaker 1: has a ton of advantages and that they should be

620
00:30:11,680 --> 00:30:13,720
Speaker 1: able to blow out Providence. I mean, shot quality has

621
00:30:13,720 --> 00:30:16,120
Speaker 1: in minds twelve for Kansas. They you know, they're top

622
00:30:16,160 --> 00:30:19,920
Speaker 1: forty in terms of points, possession and transition, Providence outside

623
00:30:19,920 --> 00:30:22,000
Speaker 1: the top three hundred. So Kansas should be able to

624
00:30:22,040 --> 00:30:25,120
Speaker 1: just absolutely torch them. But again, I don't really know

625
00:30:25,160 --> 00:30:28,120
Speaker 1: what's going on with Providence because they have this weird

626
00:30:28,160 --> 00:30:32,000
Speaker 1: ability for teams to just not hit open shots against them.

627
00:30:32,040 --> 00:30:34,239
Speaker 1: It's very very strange. I don't know how they do it,

628
00:30:34,880 --> 00:30:36,760
Speaker 1: but teams too, for whatever reason, you can't hit open

629
00:30:36,760 --> 00:30:40,200
Speaker 1: shots in Kansas has struggled all year getting margin against

630
00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:43,040
Speaker 1: UH has big favorites, and they did it against a

631
00:30:43,160 --> 00:30:45,560
Speaker 1: very underman creating team that was out without their starting

632
00:30:45,560 --> 00:30:47,680
Speaker 1: point guard and center. I mean, there are so many

633
00:30:47,680 --> 00:30:49,600
Speaker 1: times they could have just gone on runs and put

634
00:30:49,680 --> 00:30:51,960
Speaker 1: that game away, but they just couldn't. So this is

635
00:30:51,960 --> 00:30:54,720
Speaker 1: a game I will ultimately passing because Providence has beaten

636
00:30:54,720 --> 00:30:58,520
Speaker 1: me down into the ground, and Kansas also, I just

637
00:30:58,560 --> 00:31:00,560
Speaker 1: don't trust them as a big favorite. So I'm just

638
00:31:00,680 --> 00:31:03,760
Speaker 1: ultimately just passing on this game and Providence will probably

639
00:31:03,760 --> 00:31:07,280
Speaker 1: win by twenty UH and I'll just you going in

640
00:31:07,320 --> 00:31:11,200
Speaker 1: further into the ground. BJ sounds like a man defeated study.

641
00:31:11,320 --> 00:31:15,120
Speaker 1: I am very I like Providence. I'm on Providence here.

642
00:31:15,160 --> 00:31:18,320
Speaker 1: I think it's too many points. Um. Look, Providence has

643
00:31:18,360 --> 00:31:20,040
Speaker 1: a bunch of the They're one of the most experience

644
00:31:20,080 --> 00:31:22,880
Speaker 1: teams the country. They're well coached, and BJ pointed it out.

645
00:31:23,240 --> 00:31:26,520
Speaker 1: Candas can't really extend against teams that are just like

646
00:31:26,600 --> 00:31:29,640
Speaker 1: slightly inferior. I think prob the Province also is a

647
00:31:29,720 --> 00:31:31,720
Speaker 1: number of options of guys. They don't rely on one

648
00:31:31,720 --> 00:31:35,320
Speaker 1: guy getting hot. It's a really well balanced team. I

649
00:31:35,360 --> 00:31:37,560
Speaker 1: think that they can. You know, their physicality can give

650
00:31:37,600 --> 00:31:41,760
Speaker 1: Candas and problems. Candice in transition is deadly against anybody,

651
00:31:42,160 --> 00:31:46,520
Speaker 1: and providences transition defense is awful. So Providence isn't hitting shots.

652
00:31:46,720 --> 00:31:49,320
Speaker 1: It's could get really ugly, but they're gonna have the

653
00:31:49,440 --> 00:31:51,640
Speaker 1: shots anyway to stay in it. That just means that

654
00:31:51,680 --> 00:31:54,080
Speaker 1: it could go from like ten to twenty quick. But

655
00:31:54,200 --> 00:31:55,680
Speaker 1: I think this is too many points. I've been on

656
00:31:55,720 --> 00:31:58,360
Speaker 1: Providence the first two rounds. I'm on him again. I'll

657
00:31:58,440 --> 00:32:03,880
Speaker 1: ride this voodoo wagon until the wheels fall off, all right, Look,

658
00:32:03,920 --> 00:32:08,600
Speaker 1: the next game is such a classic. You know, college

659
00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:12,040
Speaker 1: Blue Blood matchup U n C and U c l

660
00:32:12,120 --> 00:32:15,840
Speaker 1: A l A two and a half point favorites. U

661
00:32:15,920 --> 00:32:19,760
Speaker 1: n C obviously surprised knocking off Baylor giving up a

662
00:32:19,800 --> 00:32:23,680
Speaker 1: twenty five point lead, winning in overtime. Good for Hubert

663
00:32:23,720 --> 00:32:28,000
Speaker 1: Davis feel good story. I don't care if they can

664
00:32:28,000 --> 00:32:33,200
Speaker 1: advance stuck, can they cover? No? I like U n

665
00:32:33,240 --> 00:32:35,479
Speaker 1: ST here. I'm waiting to lock it in. There's one

666
00:32:35,520 --> 00:32:39,040
Speaker 1: of them you see as best players hurt last week

667
00:32:39,080 --> 00:32:42,000
Speaker 1: in Honny Hawks, and they're waiting to see if they say,

668
00:32:42,000 --> 00:32:44,200
Speaker 1: if you can walk, he can play. People were analyzing,

669
00:32:44,200 --> 00:32:46,040
Speaker 1: like him walking to the bus. I think he's gonna play.

670
00:32:46,040 --> 00:32:48,120
Speaker 1: I don't think it'll be a d pent. But if

671
00:32:48,280 --> 00:32:50,160
Speaker 1: if word gets out that he's fine, if he's warming up,

672
00:32:50,160 --> 00:32:52,920
Speaker 1: you might see this line come up. Heeded A three

673
00:32:53,040 --> 00:32:55,000
Speaker 1: three and a half. So I'm waiting to see if

674
00:32:55,000 --> 00:32:57,560
Speaker 1: that happens before I take you and see. But I

675
00:32:57,600 --> 00:33:00,000
Speaker 1: think that this is pretty close to a coin flip,

676
00:33:00,360 --> 00:33:03,640
Speaker 1: and I think that UNC has a lot of advantages here. Look,

677
00:33:03,720 --> 00:33:05,760
Speaker 1: this U c l A defense is incredible, but in

678
00:33:05,880 --> 00:33:07,240
Speaker 1: order to beat them, you have to do a couple

679
00:33:07,240 --> 00:33:08,520
Speaker 1: of things. You have to be able to hit threes,

680
00:33:08,600 --> 00:33:11,000
Speaker 1: catch and shoot threes, and that's where UNC is elite,

681
00:33:11,480 --> 00:33:14,440
Speaker 1: and you have to beat them in transition and you

682
00:33:14,560 --> 00:33:18,440
Speaker 1: celize transition defense outside the top three, UNC is a

683
00:33:18,520 --> 00:33:21,040
Speaker 1: lead in that aspect, and what will UNC do here?

684
00:33:21,480 --> 00:33:24,040
Speaker 1: They can defensive rebound their second in the country in

685
00:33:24,080 --> 00:33:26,960
Speaker 1: that aspect, and that takes that does two things. That

686
00:33:27,000 --> 00:33:28,720
Speaker 1: takes away strength of U c l A, who is

687
00:33:28,760 --> 00:33:31,840
Speaker 1: good on the offensive glass, and it leads a transition

688
00:33:31,880 --> 00:33:34,760
Speaker 1: opportunities the other way where UNC could take advantage of

689
00:33:34,800 --> 00:33:36,080
Speaker 1: U c l A and the other side of the ball.

690
00:33:36,640 --> 00:33:39,880
Speaker 1: You UNC doesn't turn anybody over ever, but U c

691
00:33:40,080 --> 00:33:43,120
Speaker 1: l A doesn't turn turn the ball over ever against anyone,

692
00:33:43,240 --> 00:33:45,120
Speaker 1: So that strength is kind of negated in a way

693
00:33:45,120 --> 00:33:47,360
Speaker 1: because UNC is not gonna turn anyone over anyway. You

694
00:33:47,480 --> 00:33:49,640
Speaker 1: stay is not going to turn it over. So you know,

695
00:33:49,720 --> 00:33:51,520
Speaker 1: UNC is weak on the three point line. U c

696
00:33:51,680 --> 00:33:53,480
Speaker 1: l A doesn't really shoot threes. Are outside the top

697
00:33:53,480 --> 00:33:56,080
Speaker 1: three hundreds of mid range jumping team. So I think

698
00:33:56,120 --> 00:34:00,560
Speaker 1: at their peak, UNC is a more talented inventor team. Slightly.

699
00:34:01,280 --> 00:34:03,960
Speaker 1: They have underperformed UCLA has been wayne more consistent. The

700
00:34:04,000 --> 00:34:06,160
Speaker 1: problem with you and see is they've had a number

701
00:34:06,160 --> 00:34:08,600
Speaker 1: of games where their defense just doesn't show up just

702
00:34:08,640 --> 00:34:12,200
Speaker 1: for whatever reason. Young team, their defense doesn't show up

703
00:34:12,320 --> 00:34:14,360
Speaker 1: some of their young pieces. But it's a tournament. You

704
00:34:14,400 --> 00:34:16,920
Speaker 1: can expect their defense to be locked in here. I

705
00:34:17,000 --> 00:34:18,600
Speaker 1: like UNC catch to the points. I'm gonna wait to

706
00:34:18,640 --> 00:34:20,880
Speaker 1: see if i can get a three. Are you as

707
00:34:20,920 --> 00:34:25,120
Speaker 1: defeated on this as you are on Providence? B J No,

708
00:34:25,280 --> 00:34:27,360
Speaker 1: I'm actually gonna disagree with stuff. He actually like U

709
00:34:27,400 --> 00:34:29,560
Speaker 1: c l A minus two, And I agree that there

710
00:34:29,600 --> 00:34:31,759
Speaker 1: are some wording designs for U c l A in

711
00:34:31,880 --> 00:34:36,480
Speaker 1: terms of you know, the the catch and shoot threes

712
00:34:36,560 --> 00:34:39,120
Speaker 1: and defending off pick and rolls and everything. But you know,

713
00:34:39,360 --> 00:34:42,040
Speaker 1: North Carolina is a top twenty team in terms of

714
00:34:42,080 --> 00:34:44,960
Speaker 1: efficiency off off ball screens, and that's how they get

715
00:34:45,200 --> 00:34:47,400
Speaker 1: that's basically how they beat Baylor. Well, you see a

716
00:34:47,640 --> 00:34:50,320
Speaker 1: topfending into top fifty in defending those off ball screens

717
00:34:50,400 --> 00:34:52,279
Speaker 1: and Ulto be able to handle bay coot download because

718
00:34:52,280 --> 00:34:54,640
Speaker 1: they're top fifty team in terms of defending post upsets.

719
00:34:54,840 --> 00:34:56,960
Speaker 1: So that's gonna put a lot of pressure on North

720
00:34:56,960 --> 00:34:59,360
Speaker 1: Carolina to knock down those three pointers, which if you

721
00:34:59,360 --> 00:35:01,120
Speaker 1: look at their shot quality staffs, they are due for

722
00:35:01,160 --> 00:35:03,600
Speaker 1: some negative aggressions shooting the ball. U c l A.

723
00:35:04,000 --> 00:35:05,880
Speaker 1: You're gonna see a ton of mid range jumpers, and

724
00:35:05,920 --> 00:35:07,640
Speaker 1: for good reason, because their top ten in terms of

725
00:35:07,640 --> 00:35:10,640
Speaker 1: efficiency from the mid range from Northcohan is only average

726
00:35:10,960 --> 00:35:14,399
Speaker 1: at defending from the mid range. Uh, it's gonna be

727
00:35:14,680 --> 00:35:17,360
Speaker 1: very difficult. It's from North Carolina, you know. Obviously, if

728
00:35:17,360 --> 00:35:21,560
Speaker 1: they're able to dominate the defensive glass, Uh, then that's great,

729
00:35:21,640 --> 00:35:23,560
Speaker 1: But not being able to turn opponents over, that's gonna

730
00:35:23,560 --> 00:35:25,360
Speaker 1: put a lot of pressure on them to keep U

731
00:35:25,400 --> 00:35:28,160
Speaker 1: c l A off the offensive glass. So, uh, we'll

732
00:35:28,160 --> 00:35:30,680
Speaker 1: see if Hawk has plays. I mean, if if he

733
00:35:30,920 --> 00:35:32,960
Speaker 1: If he's not, I still do like U c l

734
00:35:33,000 --> 00:35:35,960
Speaker 1: A at minus two are better. But I'm actually on

735
00:35:36,000 --> 00:35:39,600
Speaker 1: the Bruins in this matchup. All right, Nah, we got

736
00:35:39,600 --> 00:35:41,640
Speaker 1: a conflict. I don't know what to do right now,

737
00:35:41,760 --> 00:35:43,840
Speaker 1: So we'll have to wait and see. If Hawks plays,

738
00:35:43,880 --> 00:35:46,520
Speaker 1: I think that changes everything. Gonna wait and see see

739
00:35:46,560 --> 00:35:51,200
Speaker 1: how the number moves. Simon back to you, buddy, This

740
00:35:51,239 --> 00:35:53,640
Speaker 1: feels like the first matchup that I looked at and

741
00:35:53,640 --> 00:35:55,919
Speaker 1: thought of college football. I don't know why Iowa Stay

742
00:35:56,040 --> 00:35:58,200
Speaker 1: versus Miami just brought me to Bowl season. I was

743
00:35:58,239 --> 00:36:00,880
Speaker 1: like man, they should name this matchup some type of

744
00:36:00,920 --> 00:36:03,000
Speaker 1: bowl game. But then I looked at it and it's

745
00:36:03,000 --> 00:36:05,279
Speaker 1: just interesting. They're both ten and eleven steed. So this

746
00:36:05,360 --> 00:36:08,200
Speaker 1: is obviously two teams that you said they got a

747
00:36:08,200 --> 00:36:11,200
Speaker 1: little lucky getting here. Maybe they're underseated. This Miami team

748
00:36:11,239 --> 00:36:13,399
Speaker 1: just not has has not been hitting shots yet. They're

749
00:36:13,400 --> 00:36:15,400
Speaker 1: still winning and they're doing a weird ways like what

750
00:36:15,440 --> 00:36:17,920
Speaker 1: they have twenty steels last game. I could not get

751
00:36:17,960 --> 00:36:21,480
Speaker 1: over how they won these past weekends. So looking at this,

752
00:36:21,680 --> 00:36:23,799
Speaker 1: it feels like everyone's coming on Miami and I'm right

753
00:36:23,800 --> 00:36:25,239
Speaker 1: there with him. It's up to minus two and a

754
00:36:25,280 --> 00:36:27,800
Speaker 1: half now against Iowa State. Am I overthinking this? I

755
00:36:27,880 --> 00:36:30,600
Speaker 1: just go the Iowa State side. I looked Miami personally,

756
00:36:30,600 --> 00:36:34,960
Speaker 1: and Jim Larenega's boys here. Yes, that's a very nice,

757
00:36:35,920 --> 00:36:38,440
Speaker 1: very nice. I think it's a great matchup for Miami

758
00:36:38,480 --> 00:36:41,160
Speaker 1: Iowa State. Look they got here. They beat an LSU

759
00:36:41,239 --> 00:36:43,360
Speaker 1: team in Surrey without a coach that just turns the

760
00:36:43,400 --> 00:36:45,839
Speaker 1: ball over. Then they beat Wisconsin that lost heap Burn

761
00:36:46,360 --> 00:36:48,160
Speaker 1: there and they couldn't really run offense with him. He

762
00:36:48,160 --> 00:36:49,960
Speaker 1: got injured and was out for the game, and they

763
00:36:50,000 --> 00:36:53,480
Speaker 1: turned they had nineteen force turnervers and seventeen force turners

764
00:36:53,480 --> 00:36:55,239
Speaker 1: in their first two tournaments. Because that's what I Was

765
00:36:55,239 --> 00:36:58,239
Speaker 1: State does. Pressure defense, that's the only way they could score.

766
00:36:58,280 --> 00:37:01,800
Speaker 1: Their half court offense is disgusting, but they can force turnovers,

767
00:37:02,200 --> 00:37:05,480
Speaker 1: get out in transition and score well. Guess what Miami

768
00:37:05,520 --> 00:37:07,120
Speaker 1: And because obviously at number four in the country and

769
00:37:07,160 --> 00:37:12,080
Speaker 1: force turnover percentage, Miami number five in turnover percentage on offense.

770
00:37:12,120 --> 00:37:13,759
Speaker 1: They don't turn the ball over ever, they have four

771
00:37:14,120 --> 00:37:16,840
Speaker 1: ball handles on the court at all times, they're not

772
00:37:16,840 --> 00:37:18,359
Speaker 1: gonna turn the ball over. On the other side of ball,

773
00:37:18,400 --> 00:37:21,239
Speaker 1: Miami actually forces turnovers and I Was State turns it

774
00:37:21,280 --> 00:37:24,239
Speaker 1: over incessantly. So it's actually Miami that's gonna be able

775
00:37:24,280 --> 00:37:26,800
Speaker 1: to force turnovers here. That's how they beat USC despite

776
00:37:26,920 --> 00:37:30,080
Speaker 1: shooting one or fourteen from three, USC was nine of twenty.

777
00:37:30,480 --> 00:37:32,480
Speaker 1: They're gonna be to get on transition and their number

778
00:37:32,520 --> 00:37:36,600
Speaker 1: one in the nation in transition efficiency. So I think

779
00:37:36,600 --> 00:37:38,759
Speaker 1: this is a really easy handicap with the problem with

780
00:37:38,760 --> 00:37:41,479
Speaker 1: Miami all year is their interior defense. They're not big,

781
00:37:41,520 --> 00:37:44,160
Speaker 1: and rebounding not really concerns against I WAS State. I

782
00:37:44,160 --> 00:37:48,319
Speaker 1: think it's a great matchup for Miami. I that's my check.

783
00:37:48,360 --> 00:37:50,080
Speaker 1: I think everyone's on it, don't care. I think it's

784
00:37:50,080 --> 00:37:52,600
Speaker 1: a great matchup. Um, I'll be on the Keynes money

785
00:37:52,600 --> 00:37:56,359
Speaker 1: line here. Maybe pair them with per Do if you want,

786
00:37:56,440 --> 00:37:58,680
Speaker 1: or organ Zaga if you want to get the price down.

787
00:37:58,680 --> 00:38:00,719
Speaker 1: But I think Miami advances. I think it's it's just

788
00:38:00,760 --> 00:38:04,399
Speaker 1: a spectacular matchup. That's kind of the columness I need

789
00:38:04,480 --> 00:38:07,000
Speaker 1: right at the end. See how you did that? That

790
00:38:07,160 --> 00:38:10,719
Speaker 1: was good? Yeah, I totally agree, echoing everything stuck, he said,

791
00:38:11,000 --> 00:38:13,920
Speaker 1: I would stay. It's really just stuck in this matchup

792
00:38:13,920 --> 00:38:16,799
Speaker 1: because if they want to play in transition, which they're

793
00:38:16,800 --> 00:38:20,280
Speaker 1: better at offensively, well, like Sucary said, Miami most efficient

794
00:38:20,280 --> 00:38:23,080
Speaker 1: team in transition offensively, but they're also top sixty five

795
00:38:23,400 --> 00:38:26,520
Speaker 1: in defending in transition, and where Miami's weakest is defending

796
00:38:26,520 --> 00:38:30,080
Speaker 1: in the half court, which Iowa State three thirty six

797
00:38:30,360 --> 00:38:32,600
Speaker 1: end points for possession and half court offense and averaged

798
00:38:32,640 --> 00:38:35,800
Speaker 1: over under point eight points for possession and half court offense,

799
00:38:35,800 --> 00:38:38,080
Speaker 1: which is really bad in the first two games. So

800
00:38:38,719 --> 00:38:40,359
Speaker 1: I don't really know what I Was State is gonna do.

801
00:38:40,560 --> 00:38:42,640
Speaker 1: They can't if they're obviously a very good team at

802
00:38:42,680 --> 00:38:45,239
Speaker 1: defending in the half court, but they want to play

803
00:38:45,239 --> 00:38:47,160
Speaker 1: a half court game. They can't score offensively, so I

804
00:38:47,160 --> 00:38:48,920
Speaker 1: don't really know what they're gonna do in Miami. Like,

805
00:38:49,080 --> 00:38:52,200
Speaker 1: there's just so many advantages for Miami, especially at the rim.

806
00:38:52,280 --> 00:38:55,600
Speaker 1: Miami fill will percentage of the rim. This this year,

807
00:38:55,640 --> 00:38:58,360
Speaker 1: they faced usc It was the second best team in

808
00:38:58,360 --> 00:39:00,239
Speaker 1: the country at defending at the rim, put up one

809
00:39:00,239 --> 00:39:03,160
Speaker 1: point one three points for possession against Auburn. Against Vary

810
00:39:03,239 --> 00:39:05,320
Speaker 1: Smith and Walker Kessler, they had forty points at the

811
00:39:05,400 --> 00:39:07,680
Speaker 1: rim against them. I would say it is top fifty

812
00:39:07,800 --> 00:39:10,040
Speaker 1: nationally defending at the rim. So I still think Miami

813
00:39:10,080 --> 00:39:12,760
Speaker 1: is gonna have advantages there. I'm stucky. I love the Hurricanes.

814
00:39:12,800 --> 00:39:15,040
Speaker 1: There's just way too many advantages for them for the

815
00:39:15,520 --> 00:39:17,520
Speaker 1: line to be this slow, So I'm on the Hurricanes

816
00:39:17,520 --> 00:39:21,960
Speaker 1: minus too. All that's all good, All right, guys. Before

817
00:39:21,960 --> 00:39:24,879
Speaker 1: we get out of here, we'll preview post to lead

818
00:39:24,960 --> 00:39:29,640
Speaker 1: eight final four and championship game. But now with the

819
00:39:30,000 --> 00:39:34,160
Speaker 1: Sweet sixteen set, we're gonna have another eight games over

820
00:39:34,200 --> 00:39:37,720
Speaker 1: the next two days. B J, give me your final

821
00:39:37,800 --> 00:39:42,240
Speaker 1: four coming out of the weekend. I'll go Texas Tech

822
00:39:42,600 --> 00:39:44,480
Speaker 1: making the final four out of the West. I had

823
00:39:44,480 --> 00:39:46,360
Speaker 1: that Originally, I think that they'll get by Duke and

824
00:39:46,400 --> 00:39:49,160
Speaker 1: give Gonzaga a lot of problems. I'll have per Due

825
00:39:49,480 --> 00:39:52,520
Speaker 1: coming out of the East. I'll take Arizona coming out

826
00:39:52,560 --> 00:39:54,879
Speaker 1: of the South. It doesn't make me feel very good

827
00:39:55,160 --> 00:39:58,640
Speaker 1: given their matchup against Houston, and I'll have Kansas coming

828
00:39:58,640 --> 00:40:01,160
Speaker 1: out of the Midwest for the final four. Stuck, what

829
00:40:01,200 --> 00:40:09,600
Speaker 1: about you? I'll go Gonzaga, North Carolina, Villa Nova and Kansas. Wow.

830
00:40:09,640 --> 00:40:12,480
Speaker 1: That's a blue blood final four right there. Except my

831
00:40:12,560 --> 00:40:16,239
Speaker 1: Wildcots aren't there, unfortunately. That's a nice that's a nice

832
00:40:16,320 --> 00:40:20,080
Speaker 1: round up. All right, guys. For even more college basketball content,

833
00:40:20,400 --> 00:40:24,160
Speaker 1: make sure you listen to Big Bets on Campus, probably

834
00:40:24,160 --> 00:40:27,160
Speaker 1: our best podcast, great info. I think we're primed for

835
00:40:27,239 --> 00:40:32,000
Speaker 1: Sweet sixteen. B J Cunningham. Stucky for Simon Hunter. Simon

836
00:40:32,080 --> 00:40:36,960
Speaker 1: Hunter NFL on Instagram. Now for producer Matt Mitchell. I

837
00:40:37,040 --> 00:40:41,879
Speaker 1: am Chad Millman. Until next time, Please download the podcasts,

838
00:40:42,080 --> 00:40:46,040
Speaker 1: rate review, subscribe, Apple, Spotify, wherever you get your podcast.

839
00:40:46,160 --> 00:40:48,200
Speaker 1: Give us a five star reviews, say whatever you want.

840
00:40:48,280 --> 00:40:49,320
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