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Speaker 1: Good morning.

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Speaker 2: I'm Nathan Hager and I'm Karen Moscow. Here are the

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Speaker 2: stories we're following today.

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Speaker 3: It is a day after the Federal Reserve held interest

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Speaker 3: rates steady steady for a fourth straight time. Now the

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Speaker 3: focus continues to be on when the first rate cut

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Speaker 3: will come from Jay Powell and company.

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Speaker 4: The FED chair all but took March off the board.

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Speaker 5: I don't think it's likely that the committee will reach

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Speaker 5: a level of confidence by the time of the March

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Speaker 5: meeting to identify March as the time to do that.

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Speaker 5: But that's to be seen. So I wouldn't call you

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Speaker 5: know when you say, when you ask me about in

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Speaker 5: the near term, I'm hearing that as March, I would say,

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Speaker 5: I don't think that's probably not the most likely case,

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Speaker 5: or what we would call the base case.

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Speaker 3: Jay Powell acknowledged the dramatic inflation progress in recent months,

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Speaker 3: but repeatedly emphasized the need to see more data confirming

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Speaker 3: that downward trend.

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Speaker 2: Well, Nathan, reaction still pouring into Jay Powell's news conference.

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Speaker 2: We got up with the black Rock managing director Jeffrey

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Speaker 2: Rosenberg and former New York Fed President and current Bloomberg

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Speaker 2: opinion columnist Bill Dudley.

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Speaker 6: I think that's the story, is it May as a June.

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Speaker 7: It's not March.

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Speaker 1: It's pushing back because they don't want to rush into

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Speaker 1: a cutting cycle.

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Speaker 6: I think we could expect quantity of tightening tapering to

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Speaker 6: happen sometime probably around the.

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Speaker 7: First half of this year.

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Speaker 6: If the inflation is continues along the same course for

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Speaker 6: a few more months, then the Fed Reserve is certainly

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Speaker 6: going to start to cut rates. They're just not absolutely

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Speaker 6: confident that that's where we're going to be three or

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Speaker 6: four months from now.

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Speaker 2: And that was Black Rock managing director Jeffrey Rosenberg and

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Speaker 2: former New York Fed President Bill Dudley speaking to us

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Speaker 2: after the FED decision. FED fund futures now have a

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Speaker 2: March rate cut down to thirty eight percent.

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Speaker 3: And now Karen, it is the Bank of England's turn.

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Speaker 3: The BOE is expected to leave its key lending rated

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Speaker 3: a sixteen year high. We get more from Bloomberg's Lizzie

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Speaker 3: Burden in London.

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Speaker 8: The other thing that I would watch though, is the

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Speaker 8: guidance if they drop mentions of further tightening and this

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Speaker 8: need to be restrictive for an extended period, that could

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Speaker 8: be seen as veering away from the hawkish bias, and

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Speaker 8: if they don't do that, it could be seen as

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Speaker 8: the MPC giving market. It's a bit of a slap

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Speaker 8: on the risk for getting ahead of themselves with the

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Speaker 8: rate cook bets.

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Speaker 3: Bloomberg's Lizzie Burden says economists unanimously expect the UK's Central

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Speaker 3: Bank to leave its key lending rate at five and

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Speaker 3: a quarter percent.

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Speaker 2: Well, Nathan, it's also a very busy day for earnings

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Speaker 2: in Europe, and let's stay in London and get the

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Speaker 2: very latest from Bloomberg's creatygupda critty.

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Speaker 9: Yeah, Nathan, Karen's some pretty big moves here right here

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Speaker 9: in London. Shell up over two percent after beating earnings

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Speaker 9: estimates at three and a half billion dollars, buyback announcement

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Speaker 9: helping that stock as well, not to mention outstanding trade

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Speaker 9: in the gas market. Deutsche Bank on the other hand,

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Speaker 9: higher and buy about four percent, the German lender saying

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Speaker 9: it's cutting thirty five hundred jobs to focus there on profitability,

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Speaker 9: but also a buyback six one hundred and seventy five

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Speaker 9: million euros on their bound sheet. And Roche on the

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Speaker 9: other hand, dropping four percent twenty fowty four guidance analysts

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Speaker 9: are calling quote extremely extremely weak in London, Creaty goop

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Speaker 9: to Bloomberg Radio, all right.

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Speaker 3: Critty, thank you. Back here in the US, it's another

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Speaker 3: huge day for big tech earnings. Let's bring in John

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Speaker 3: Tucker for a preview of that.

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Speaker 10: John and need to Apple, Amazon meta Platforms all reporting

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Speaker 10: the updates. We'll get fresh insights on how the companies

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Speaker 10: at the heart of the reason rally on Wall Street

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Speaker 10: are matching up to lofty expectations. Apple has suffered five

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Speaker 10: straight sales declines in a row. Analyst Dan Ives at

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Speaker 10: Wedbush Securities is focusing on demand in China.

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Speaker 2: I think China's actually been relatively stable. I think that's

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Speaker 2: going to be a breadth of fresh air from Cokin

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Speaker 2: Cooper Tino on units on services.

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Speaker 10: Amazon dot COM's results will reveal how the online retailer

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Speaker 10: perform during the holiday shopping season and how artificial intelligence

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Speaker 10: is impacting demand for cloud computing at Facebook parent meta

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Speaker 10: platforms may see a continued bounce back from a recovering

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Speaker 10: ad market and cost cutting. John Tucker, Bloomberg Radio, All.

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Speaker 2: Right, John, thanks, So we continue to follow New York

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Speaker 2: Community Bankcorp. Following yesterday's record plunge of thirty eight percent.

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Speaker 2: The bank reported a surprise loss yesterday and slashed its

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Speaker 2: dividend amid growing concerns over commercial property loans. Bloomberg Intelligence

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Speaker 2: Senior banks analyst Herman Chan says the results are an outlier.

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Speaker 11: This seems more of a New York community specific issue

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Speaker 11: of needing to shore up their balance sheet and facing

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Speaker 11: a blip on their credit quality that they need to

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Speaker 11: you know, and still some more confidence in the market.

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Speaker 2: And Bloomberg's Hermann Chan says Moodies may cut the bank's

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Speaker 2: credit rating to junk. The stock is up almost one

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Speaker 2: percent this morning.

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Speaker 4: Let's turn to policy news.

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Speaker 3: In Washington, Karen Key Republican senators are exploring dropping demands

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Speaker 3: for new border restrictions and backing a standalone aid package

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Speaker 3: for Ukraine and Israel.

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Speaker 4: Bloomberg Zed Baxter has the story.

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Speaker 12: Minority Leader Mitch McConnell says he and Majority Leader Chuck

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Speaker 12: Schumer agreed.

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Speaker 10: Two friends in the middle of a huge fight Israel Ukraine,

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Speaker 10: they need help.

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Speaker 13: We on a democratic side, are pursuing getting all of

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Speaker 13: this done. Ukraine is humanitarian aid, Indo Pacific border together.

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Speaker 12: Getting it through the House will be another story. Ukraine

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Speaker 12: is warning it is facing a critical shortage of artillery shells.

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Speaker 12: Ed Baxter, Bloomberg.

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Speaker 4: Radio, all right and thanks.

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Speaker 2: Elsewhere on Capitol Hell, the CEOs of five social media

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Speaker 2: giants got a grilling over their platforms impact on kids'

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Speaker 2: mental health and sexual exploitation. Members of the Senate Judiciary

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Speaker 2: Committee focused most of their attention on meta platforms. Republican

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Speaker 2: Josh Holly had this to say to CEO Mark Zuckerberg.

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Speaker 10: Would you like now to apologize to the victims who

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Speaker 10: have been harmed by your product?

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Speaker 4: Show them the pictures.

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Speaker 10: Would you like to apologize for what you've done to

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Speaker 10: these good people?

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Speaker 2: At that point, Zuckerberg turned to families in the audience

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Speaker 2: and apologize for what they've been through. The committee is

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Speaker 2: looking for momentum on a bill that would target child's

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Speaker 2: sexual exploitation online. Time now for look at some of

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Speaker 2: the other stories making news around the world. For that,

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Speaker 2: we're joined by Bloomberg's Amy Morris Samy, Good Morning, Good morning, Karen.

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Speaker 14: Was a rare bipartisan vote in the House, which has

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Speaker 14: passed a seventy eight billion dollar business and child tax

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Speaker 14: break bill that would provide a boon for US companies

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Speaker 14: with large capital and domestic research expenditures. Republican Jason Smith

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Speaker 14: of Missouri expressed his support.

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Speaker 2: Each of these policies will help American businesses grow, create jobs,

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Speaker 2: and sharpen their competitive advantage against China.

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Speaker 14: The measure now heads to the Senate, where Republicans are

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Speaker 14: pushing back against a provision that allows some people with

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Speaker 14: no taxable income to collect the child tax credit. Senate

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Speaker 14: majority leader Chuck Schumer says they're working on a deal.

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Speaker 13: I support the tax bill, as I've stated before, I'm

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Speaker 13: working with Senator Widen to figure out the best way forward.

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Speaker 14: Whitehouse says if it passes the Senate, the President will

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Speaker 14: sign it. Negotiations are advancing for an agreement to pause

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Speaker 14: the Israel Hamas war and free civilian hostages captured by Hamas.

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Speaker 14: Sources tell Bloomberg that conversations are still in the early

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Speaker 14: stages and a breakthrough is not expected in the coming days,

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Speaker 14: but the proposal, which would mount to the longest pause

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Speaker 14: and the biggest hostage release since the war began October seventh,

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Speaker 14: has a realistic chance of success and could lead to

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Speaker 14: a longer term cease fire. The White House says it

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Speaker 14: is monitoring the warning from FBI Director Christopher Ray about

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Speaker 14: Chinese hackers preparing to target critical US infrastructure. At today's

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Speaker 14: White House briefing, National Security Council spokesman John Kirby said

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Speaker 14: the administration prioritizes cybersecurity.

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Speaker 11: This is something we monitor very closely all the time,

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Speaker 11: and we take all these threats seriously.

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Speaker 14: You have to, Kirby says, one element of critical infrastructure

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Speaker 14: in the United States is a free and fair election.

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Speaker 14: No matter how fast technology changes, AM radio has remained

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Speaker 14: a reliable tool for spreading information. Sean Voskell of the

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Speaker 14: American Association of Retired Persons says there are still plenty

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Speaker 14: of technology deserts.

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Speaker 1: Many people don't have the high speed Internet yet, so

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Speaker 1: they rely on their AM radio to get through information.

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Speaker 14: The carmakers are considering removing free AM radio, replacing it

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Speaker 14: with streaming and subscription services that would require fees. FEMA, though,

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Speaker 14: says getting free, reliable information in times of emergency is crucial.

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Speaker 14: Global news twenty four hours a day and whenever you

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Speaker 14: want it with Bloomberg News now, I Ami Morris in,

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Speaker 14: this is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 2: Karen all Right, Amy Thank you. We do bring you

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Speaker 2: news throughout the day here on Bloomberg Radio, but now

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Speaker 2: you can get the latest news on demand, and that

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Speaker 2: means whenever you want it. Just subscribe to Bloomberg News

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Speaker 2: Now and you can get the latest headlines right at

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Speaker 2: the click of a button. Get informed on your schedule.

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Speaker 2: You can listen and subscribe to Bloomberg News Now on

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Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Business app, Bloomberg dot Com plus apples, Spotify,

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Speaker 2: and anywhere else you get your podcasts. Time now for

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Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Sports Update with John Stashour.

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Speaker 15: John Ken, the news coach of the Seattle Seahawks, is

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Speaker 15: half the age of the guy he's replacing. Pete Carroll,

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Speaker 15: departed at the age of seventy two. Mike McDonald replaces him.

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Speaker 15: He's thirty six, becomes the youngest coach in the NFL.

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Speaker 15: He comes Baltimore, where he was the defensive coordinator. The

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Speaker 15: only NFL team yet to hire a new coach, the

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Speaker 15: Washington Commanders. A deal struck between the PGA Tour and

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Speaker 15: the Strategic Sports Group that includes Mets owner Steve Cohen,

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Speaker 15: Red Sox owner John Henry, Falcons owner Arthur Glank, the

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Speaker 15: Tour gets a three billion dollar infusion, so of purses

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Speaker 15: are expected to go up and they will launch PGA

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Speaker 15: Tour enterprises where the players will have equity. Meanwhile, that

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Speaker 15: PGA Tour deal with Saudi Arabia is still not official

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Speaker 15: and the Pebble Beach Tournament begins today. Nick Dunlap recently

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Speaker 15: won the American Express Golf as an amateur. He'll make

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Speaker 15: his professional debut. Damian Lillard, back in Portland, where he

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Speaker 15: spent eleven season, scored twenty five points. His new team,

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Speaker 15: the Milwaukee Bucks, lost to the Blazers in the rowe

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Speaker 15: and two with the new coach Doc Rivers on the bench.

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Speaker 15: Kevin Durant returned to Brooklyn, where he spent three and

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Speaker 15: a half seasons. He scored thirty three. The Suns beat

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Speaker 15: the nets Kawhi Leonards scored thirty one. The Clippers beat

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Speaker 15: the Wizards Flippers of one fourteen of the last seventeen

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Speaker 15: West Leaning Minnesota blew out Dallas by thirty four. Cleveland

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Speaker 15: won eleven last twelve. Donovan Mitchell scored forty five in

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Speaker 15: a win over Detroit. Miami beat Zacramento to in the

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Speaker 15: seventeen losing Street Johns Dashedward Bloomberg Sports.

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Speaker 16: From coast to coast, from New York to San Francisco,

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Speaker 16: Boston to Washington, DC, nationwide on Syrias exam the Bloomberg

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Speaker 16: Business Appen Bloomberg dot com. This is Bloomberg Daybreak.

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Speaker 4: Good morning. I'm Nathan Hager.

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Speaker 3: Not so fast on rate cuts, It seems to be

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Speaker 3: the message Jaypowllin company wanted to deliver to markets. After

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Speaker 3: holding interest rates steady at the Federal Reserves First Policy

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Speaker 3: Meeting of twenty twenty four, we.

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Speaker 5: Believe that our policy rate is likely at its peak

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Speaker 5: for this titaning cycle, and that if the economy evolves

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Speaker 5: broadly as expected, it will likely be appropriate to begin

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Speaker 5: dialing back policy restraint at some point this year.

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Speaker 3: When that point will be, that's the question. For more

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Speaker 3: on the Fed decision, we're joined by Bloomberg opinion columnist

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Speaker 3: Marcus Ashworth. So, Marcus, do we need to start thinking

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Speaker 3: about May rather than March?

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Speaker 17: No, I think we still have to expect that a

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Speaker 17: move could come in March. It's two more CPI numbers obviously,

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Speaker 17: payrolls times two as well, So I think the chances

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Speaker 17: are less that there will be a March rate cut

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Speaker 17: obviously they quite clearly say it's not their base case,

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Speaker 17: but they were very careful not to rule it out.

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Speaker 7: So it's data dependent.

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Speaker 17: The FED has made is ready and unclear that they

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Speaker 17: will be cutting rates this year. Does it really matter

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Speaker 17: they kind of cutch him in March rather than May.

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Speaker 17: Probably not in the greatest scheme of things. They're taking

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Speaker 17: the time right. So if the numbers come in much weaker,

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Speaker 17: bear in my big CPI revision on February ninth or so.

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Speaker 17: I think they'll be a payroll revis at the start

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Speaker 17: of the year as well.

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Speaker 7: If either of those come in, you know.

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Speaker 17: Dramatically changed and weaker, then I think March will come

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Speaker 17: back onto the agenda. So yeah, probably may, but hey

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Speaker 17: could still be much.

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Speaker 4: Well, what do you think is the risk that we

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Speaker 4: do see major revisions to that inflation data that's coming up.

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Speaker 17: Big, and I think that's why Walla has flagged it up.

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Speaker 17: The revisions were quite sharply down last year. Doesn't mean

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Speaker 17: it'll be followed through again, but I think the chances are.

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Speaker 7: Reasonable that they are, particularly.

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Speaker 17: If you look at the pc D edge and the

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Speaker 17: GDP report, it's running around two CPI is a full

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Speaker 17: percentage point higher.

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Speaker 7: Something's out of whack there.

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Speaker 17: Things are always slightly out of whack, but just a

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Speaker 17: bit more out of whack than usual. So the chances

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Speaker 17: are that that gap narrows is reasonably high, I think,

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Speaker 17: and that will only make it more prevalent on the

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Speaker 17: FED to start thinking, well, they've done their job. Inflation

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Speaker 17: has been beaten. Yes, the economy is strong. It needs

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Speaker 17: to be strong, but that doesn't mean that they have to,

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Speaker 17: you know, keep rates clearly too strong.

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Speaker 7: Than they need to be.

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Speaker 17: So you put that into the equation and maybe we

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Speaker 17: get an earlier rate cut. But you know, I think

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Speaker 17: the Fed's very content to take its time over this,

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Speaker 17: and I think that you know clearly there's shelter problems,

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Speaker 17: and the problems pompartn you. But then we know shelter

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Speaker 17: as a component in CPI is very much lagging, and

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Speaker 17: when any of that turns, which looks like it has,

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Speaker 17: that will push CPI down substantially over the next year

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Speaker 17: or two anyway, So we don't want to get a

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Speaker 17: situation we get close to deflation.

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Speaker 3: What do you think of there's a risk of a

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Speaker 3: problem if the Fed does keep interest rates high for

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Speaker 3: too long.

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Speaker 17: Well, I mean, look, we just saw with New York

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Speaker 17: Community Bank or I mean, you know there is there

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Speaker 17: some nasty stuff in the commercial real estate. Also Japanese

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Speaker 17: Bank and Azora gets covered by New York not a

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Speaker 17: part of the US commercial property.

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Speaker 7: So there are you know, we saw the.

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Speaker 17: Silicon Valley shakeout last year and the common problems as

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Speaker 17: the signature obviously is feeding through to the old Community

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Speaker 17: Bank corps. But I mean, you know this is an issue.

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Speaker 17: There's no necessary, real need, I think, to make interest

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Speaker 17: rates pain any more than it's it needs to be.

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Speaker 7: It's done its job.

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Speaker 17: It's fed through, and I think you know transitory is

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Speaker 17: now two or three years a definition rather than a year.

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Speaker 17: But certainly I think we've see most effects Pytrough. So

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Speaker 17: the Fed's got it under control. Very impressive behavior from power.

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Speaker 17: I wish the same could be said of the British

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Speaker 17: Central Bag, but that's another story.

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Speaker 3: Now let's get to that story in our last minute here.

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Speaker 3: Do you think the Bank of England's going to follow

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Speaker 3: the Fed's lead when it comes to pushing back at

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Speaker 3: great cut expectations?

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Speaker 4: We do have about a minute left.

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Speaker 7: Yeah, they definitely will push back. A question is how

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Speaker 7: much they'll push back.

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Speaker 17: They need more time, and we have a higher wage

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Speaker 17: problem in the UK. It's residual, it's sticky, it is

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Speaker 17: feeding through. We are have beaten inflation, it's just not

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Speaker 17: showing up quite as evidently as is in the States.

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Speaker 7: It will do.

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Speaker 17: I don't think there's any any real outline now in

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Speaker 17: the UK inflation terms. But you know, central banks are

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Speaker 17: paid to be cautious and drag the heels. That's exactly

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Speaker 17: what banking is going to do. What we want to

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Speaker 17: see is that there were three Hawks voting for another

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Speaker 17: rate hike last time, madness. I think let's see at

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Speaker 17: least one or two of those chase the minor go

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Speaker 17: back into a neutral stance, and possibly one will vote.

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Speaker 7: For a rape cup.

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