Speaker 1: We'd like to welcome in now the chairman and CEO
Speaker 1: of JP Morgan Jamie Diamond, who's joining us from the
Speaker 1: Global China Summit in Shanghai. Thanks so much for joining
Speaker 1: us exclusively on Bloomberg Television. Obviously, it's been a few
Speaker 1: years since you've held this in person summit.
Speaker 2: The last time you and I talked was that the last.
Speaker 1: Time you held one in person in Beijing in twenty nineteen.
Speaker 2: A lot has changed.
Speaker 1: Why are you willing to go high profile as a
Speaker 1: major CEO of a company from America when others they
Speaker 1: want to stay low profile and keep their heads low.
Speaker 2: How do you assess the US.
Speaker 1: China relationship and the impact it's having on business?
Speaker 3: Okay, well, first, all thrilled to be back again after
Speaker 3: all this time. And it's important for CEO to visit
Speaker 3: their people and their clients around the world, particularly in
Speaker 3: when you think times a little more complicated, etc. But
Speaker 3: I think it's important for the viewership to understand there
Speaker 3: are like three thousand investors here from around the world.
Speaker 3: There are hundreds of companies of Chinese and non Chinese
Speaker 3: company he's learning about the world. We do research on
Speaker 3: five hundred companies that research circulates the world, and hopefully
Speaker 3: business could be a you know, it could be for
Speaker 3: good to help the countries lift up. I have enormous
Speaker 3: respect for the Chinese people. The Martization's countries has been extraordinary,
Speaker 3: and yes, there are some very complex issues that have
Speaker 3: to be dealt with.
Speaker 1: At what point does Jamie Diamond have to become the diplomat? Look,
Speaker 1: Joe Biden has not spoken to Siegen Ping since November,
Speaker 1: the Bali meeting. Military to military discussions are being rebuffed
Speaker 1: and not even happening. Business to business is tenuous at best.
Speaker 2: What role can you and should you play while you're there?
Speaker 3: Yeah? No, I think I look at a little bit differently.
Speaker 3: So there are conversations took place recently that you know
Speaker 3: have been in the press, which I think you're great.
Speaker 3: I mean, it's hard to resolve issues when you have
Speaker 3: the echo chain in your own brain telling yourself what
Speaker 3: you already think. And I think business could be a
Speaker 3: force for good. But I don't represent the government. But
Speaker 3: you know, everyone knows I'm an American patriot, so I'm
Speaker 3: sitting here in China, but I'm a red blooded, full
Speaker 3: throated free enterprise capitalists, and so the governments have to talk.
Speaker 3: Every government has national security in mind and how do
Speaker 3: they how do they get better announced security? And I
Speaker 3: should point out is that this globe of ours has
Speaker 3: benefited from trade. You know, it's benefited from all these
Speaker 3: things taking place, and so it's lifted and even taking
Speaker 3: this country, you know, they have benefited. I know this
Speaker 3: criticism about the American global system, but that American global
Speaker 3: system has done an extraordinary It's not American. You know,
Speaker 3: if you go to America, a lot of Americans complain
Speaker 3: about NATO and WTO and WHO and the United Nations,
Speaker 3: but it's lifted up. Look what it's done for China.
Speaker 3: I think that the global system has been fabulous for China.
Speaker 3: And they may have complaints about it, just like the
Speaker 3: rest of us have complaints. But I'm thrilled to be
Speaker 3: here again. You know we have you have to go
Speaker 3: see your people and thank your people what they've done,
Speaker 3: particularly through this terrible time of COVID, which I think
Speaker 3: has done a lot of damage to the world in
Speaker 3: a lot of different ways. So getting out is the
Speaker 3: right thing to do.
Speaker 2: Yeah, what is your calculus?
Speaker 1: Has it changed over these four years on how you
Speaker 1: want to expand in China.
Speaker 2: Obviously you're fully licensed up now. You are very productive.
Speaker 1: During the pandemic, you got full jvs and full ventures
Speaker 1: in securities and the mutual funds and futures. You're pretty
Speaker 1: much well established on the mainland, which was your goal.
Speaker 1: But the things have changed. China is not necessarily the
Speaker 1: be all end all anymore. We've had simultaneous crackdowns domestically
Speaker 1: on the platform economy, on property, on online gaming, on
Speaker 1: online education, not to mention COVID zero, you have a
Speaker 1: crackdown on consultancies. There's lots of pressure. I mean, are
Speaker 1: you recalculating your growth projection and the capability of that
Speaker 1: growth in China?
Speaker 3: You went through a long list there which I may
Speaker 3: not win agree with all of it, but I think
Speaker 3: when we do visit a country, and we do visit
Speaker 3: one hundred countries around the world, we are there for
Speaker 3: the systems of the country, and we're there hopefully through
Speaker 3: good times and bedtimes. We tend not to leave other
Speaker 3: and there's war, civil war, and so we're not predicting
Speaker 3: any of that here. You know. Obviously it's become a
Speaker 3: far more complex situation. You know, for some for good reason,
Speaker 3: some not for good reason, and you know there's risk.
Speaker 3: There's always going to be risk, and I think you'll
Speaker 3: see companies react to different things for different reasons, some
Speaker 3: of their own resiliency. Some is obviously national security, you know,
Speaker 3: will trump all other things. So you know, our government
Speaker 3: tells us to do AB and C, We're gonna do
Speaker 3: a B and C and support it. And I think
Speaker 3: there's there's a risk in China itself that you know,
Speaker 3: if you I've met with several people here, if you
Speaker 3: have more uncertainty, some are caused by the Chinese government. Well,
Speaker 3: of course it's gonna not just change foreign direct investment,
Speaker 3: which has gone up a little surprisingly, and I don't
Speaker 3: think they should assume that's continue, but it's going to
Speaker 3: change the people here, their own confidence, their own ability
Speaker 3: to invest and do things. And so, like I said,
Speaker 3: if people have deep conversations, respect each other, engage properly.
Speaker 3: I think the American government said all the right things recently,
Speaker 3: which is cause you heard it from Treasury Secretary Yellen,
Speaker 3: You've heard from President Biden. You've heard it from National
Speaker 3: Security Advisor Jake Sullivan, you heard it from Secretary as
Speaker 3: day Tony Blincoln that this is not decoupling. This is
Speaker 3: de risking. The world's changed a little bit. Obviously, they
Speaker 3: are concerned about the war in Ukraine. They should be.
Speaker 3: I think that is probably one of the most serious
Speaker 3: things affecting the future of the globe, and I mean
Speaker 3: the future of glow for the next fifty years. And
Speaker 3: I think they're doing the right things. I'm completely supportive
Speaker 3: of that. So you know, China's obviously going to do
Speaker 3: what they think is good for itself. And business might
Speaker 3: be a positive attribute, but national security will trump all
Speaker 3: our issues.
Speaker 1: Now. I was just at G seven where we heard
Speaker 1: a lot of that rhetoric where they're de risking, not decoupling.
Speaker 1: But again, you know the Chinese say it's one and
Speaker 1: the same. It's America trying to limit China's rise, and
Speaker 1: you've seen that bifurcation.
Speaker 2: There's more jargon.
Speaker 1: Not to overemphasize all this jargon that's going out there,
Speaker 1: But again, do you see d risking different from decoupling totally?
Speaker 3: I mean, look, you know, Stevie, I look at the
Speaker 3: fact trade actually went up and last year, and I
Speaker 3: think d risky means national security. You know, everyone's gonna
Speaker 3: do every country's gonna turn out their own way. You know,
Speaker 3: now we're talking about very advanced chips. We kind of reasonable,
Speaker 3: you know, not to help non allies have things that
Speaker 3: can help their military. You know, obviously there are you know,
Speaker 3: rare earths and things like that, so American is going
Speaker 3: to look at that. They were very clear they term
Speaker 3: about it. They used the word, you know, a small
Speaker 3: guarden with high walls as opposed to everything, and let's
Speaker 3: you know, we should hope that, let's not make it everything.
Speaker 3: I think the business Comunity is trying to help advise them,
Speaker 3: and that then there's going to be companies doing things
Speaker 3: just for their own resiliency. That's a perfectly reasonable thing
Speaker 3: to do too. And then there's the big one, which
Speaker 3: is also this constant negotia about trade on fair trade,
Speaker 3: free access, fair access that's been going on with for
Speaker 3: my whole life is about every country and countries should
Speaker 3: learn about when they're legitimate concerns and when they're not
Speaker 3: legitimate concerns, and like listen to it deeply and adjust accordingly.
Speaker 3: So if you ask me, over time, yeah, there'll be
Speaker 3: less trade. You know, it'll take years for these things
Speaker 3: to take place, but it won't be a decoupling and
Speaker 3: the world will go on. I think, like I said,
Speaker 3: I think far more important is what's happening in Ukraine
Speaker 3: right now, and so hopefully this will sort out and
Speaker 3: it'll never short out if you don't talk. So I
Speaker 3: urge people you have some real deep conversation. You get
Speaker 3: to know each other a little bit, a little bit
Speaker 3: each other's concerns about some of these issues, and things
Speaker 3: would be better if we have that.
Speaker 1: Well, do you have these conversations as well, because a
Speaker 1: lot of people do try to extrapolate what's happening in
Speaker 1: Ukraine with the potentiality in East Asia with Taiwan. We
Speaker 1: know Warren Buffett has divested completely its investment Berkshire Hathaway's
Speaker 1: investment in Taiwan Semiconductor. There's nervousness and that creates hesitancy
Speaker 1: for investment and fun flows which are down. Obviously trade
Speaker 1: deals are down. Do you see the direct correlation of
Speaker 1: the risks that have risen in East Asia because of Taiwan,
Speaker 1: because of what's happening in Ukraine exacerbating that?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I think. Look, I'm not an expert on Taiwan,
Speaker 3: and I would defer to Bob Gates and Henry Kissinger
Speaker 3: about how to de escalate that situation and obviously as
Speaker 3: to the tension things like that. But remember this is
Speaker 3: a world issue. All the country around the world would
Speaker 3: be concerned about Taiwan and the outcome of that. I
Speaker 3: think what Ukraine showed people is that the world wasn't
Speaker 3: safe that you know, oil and gas supply chains aren't safe,
Speaker 3: food supply lines aren't safe. You know, everyone's starting to
Speaker 3: relook at what is national security. Had Germany important, I think,
Speaker 3: was half of their natural gas from Russia. So I
Speaker 3: think that did cause people look at what are their alliances,
Speaker 3: what are their trade what are the things? And obviously
Speaker 3: it's causing a lot of confusion and a lot of issues.
Speaker 3: But hopefully we'll make a lot of progress on it.
Speaker 3: Like I said, that comes with engagement, and that comes
Speaker 3: with you know the one the American government and other folks,
Speaker 3: you know, city down.
Speaker 2: Yeah.
Speaker 1: I don't want to keep on harping on the negative
Speaker 1: side of it, but is there any scenario, the worst
Speaker 1: case scenario that would make your investment, and look, it's
Speaker 1: a sizeable investment in China, make it untenable for you?
Speaker 3: You know, Steve, you're going here you're going to repeat
Speaker 3: yourself over and over. We're here, We're going to support
Speaker 3: the Chinese people, of the Chinese governments. We do business
Speaker 3: with a thousand companies here. Half are multinationals, coming in
Speaker 3: half are local companies. You know, we always have managed
Speaker 3: our risk that we can handle almost whatever happens around
Speaker 3: the world. And I am an American patriot. I will
Speaker 3: do what my government tells me. I'm going to salute
Speaker 3: like anybody else. But I can tell them what I think,
Speaker 3: and you could imagine that I've been very clear when
Speaker 3: I sit down with them what I think and what
Speaker 3: we think matters. And like I said, a lot of
Speaker 3: the business community think would be very helpful in that
Speaker 3: this is not a simple matter, and sometimes we oversimplify
Speaker 3: things in a way which actually damage, you know, the
Speaker 3: ultimate outcomes.
Speaker 2: Will you have an opportunit unity?
Speaker 1: Can you reveal whether you're going to meet with Lee Chong,
Speaker 1: the premiere or any of the other senior Chinese leaders,
Speaker 1: and what would you like to get from them.
Speaker 3: I'm I'm me a very limited amount of Chinese leaders.
Speaker 3: I met with one by I'll keep that conversation private,
Speaker 3: and like I said, you know, I'm here for our people.
Speaker 3: I'm here for these clients. I think it's great that
Speaker 3: this is taking place. I think humanity is better off
Speaker 3: this type of thing. And obviously national security will reign
Speaker 3: supreme and so. But but you don't stop doing one
Speaker 3: because of the other. And so, like I said, I'm
Speaker 3: thrilled to be here. And it's amazing, which I've what
Speaker 3: I've seen take place in Chino the last twenty five
Speaker 3: years partially because of the global system, and I think
Speaker 3: they should be clear about that. And you know, they
Speaker 3: have their own problems here. You know, twenty percent unemployment
Speaker 3: and youth. I mean that's a scary number. And so
Speaker 3: you know, growth, they need growth too, and confidence is
Speaker 3: very important for growth.
Speaker 1: When do you see cross border deal making picking up?
Speaker 1: It's been quite a nator on that front.
Speaker 3: Course, border between China and other people are just globally.
Speaker 1: Right, Well, let's let's talk about China, say China US
Speaker 1: or outbound from China and the like.
Speaker 3: Outbound you know, I don't know the answer to that.
Speaker 3: I think there are always a lot more conversations, you think,
Speaker 3: and obviously it's been damped a little bit. I think
Speaker 3: America is still open for business, you know, Chinese company's
Speaker 3: gonna be a little concerned. You know, we've we've had
Speaker 3: siphias for a long time now. But I would say
Speaker 3: we're still generally open for business. And if you're in
Speaker 3: a Chinese company you want to do something, you know,
Speaker 3: look at it, don't back off just because you're afraid
Speaker 3: of something, and you get some advice and helping how
Speaker 3: you go about that the right way. But America is
Speaker 3: still open for business, and I think you've heard that
Speaker 3: from Secretary yelling, Secretary blinking, and all those Still we
Speaker 3: still believe in, you know, open and philly free markets.
Speaker 1: Let's pivot to what's happening in the United States. Obviously,
Speaker 1: the debt ceiling impasse is coming to head, perhaps with
Speaker 1: a House vote coming up. Can you kind of tell
Speaker 1: me what your war room, your debt ceiling war room
Speaker 1: is advising you on the unintended consequences a of a
Speaker 1: default or even buh, the ramifications even if a deal
Speaker 1: is done in Congress, on whether that could mean you know,
Speaker 1: higher rates as well as we head towards a possible
Speaker 1: mild recession.
Speaker 3: So I, first of all, I think I think Kevin McCarthy,
Speaker 3: Kim Jefferies, the President, Chuck Schumer, Miss McCabe all did
Speaker 3: a great job, and I think it's great. This is
Speaker 3: this is democracy and bipartisanship, and I think they did
Speaker 3: the right thing. And I think it's going to happen.
Speaker 3: If I thought it wasn't going to happen, I probably
Speaker 3: wouldn't be here right now. Uh So, And obviously it's
Speaker 3: got to get through a couple of votes in Congress,
Speaker 3: and our people pretty comfortable will happen. You know, I've
Speaker 3: been We've been public for years. If if you actually
Speaker 3: an actual default, it's not good. You know, America, the
Speaker 3: financial as system America, and the econom economy of America,
Speaker 3: it's still the most prosperous and largest economy of the
Speaker 3: world've ever seen, the most innovative, the most growing, and
Speaker 3: the rest of the world relies on it, you know,
Speaker 3: So I think we shouldn't create any instability there. So
Speaker 3: I wish one day we'd get rid of the whole
Speaker 3: debt ceiling thing. But I understand, when you know, it's
Speaker 3: a democracy, people have different opinions about what we should
Speaker 3: be doing, and it's just one tool for one party
Speaker 3: to you know, get the other part of the table.
Speaker 3: So I'm quite optimistic there, and I really do applaud
Speaker 3: the fact that they all sat down and spoke got
Speaker 3: something done.
Speaker 1: What's your read on inflation, on whether the FED will
Speaker 1: go beyond the pause and hike again.
Speaker 3: You know, my simple view is that you know, their
Speaker 3: right to pause at this point has been a big increase,
Speaker 3: you know, five hundred basis points to so take a pause.
Speaker 3: But I do think it's possible they're going to raise
Speaker 3: a little bit more. Then the inflation is kind of stickier.
Speaker 3: I think people are coming around to that, which means
Speaker 3: race may have to go up a little bit more.
Speaker 3: People should be a little prepared for that. There's just
Speaker 3: as a matter of manage your own business, be a
Speaker 3: little prepared for, whether you're a financial company or real
Speaker 3: estate company, etc. I think the other thing I'd be
Speaker 3: a little prepared for is the volatility that might very
Speaker 3: well be created by quantitative tightening. We've never really had
Speaker 3: quantitative easying, which we've had now for the better part
Speaker 3: of fifteen years, and now you're going to see quantitative tightening,
Speaker 3: and I think the effects may be a little harsher
Speaker 3: than people expect. But hopefully we'll get through all of
Speaker 3: that and'll be okay.
Speaker 1: How would you assess the banking crisis whether we're still
Speaker 1: facing a banking crisis. Obviously you come from a very
Speaker 1: interesting purge having taken over a first Republic. Do you
Speaker 1: see more pain coming down to what needs to be
Speaker 1: done on the regulatory front to prevent this from happening again.
Speaker 3: Yeah. So the first thing is it's nothing like, oh wait,
Speaker 3: there's nothing like that. Leverage in the system private the
Speaker 3: private companies are in actually very good shape. The banking
Speaker 3: system is in pretty good shape. You've seen regional banks
Speaker 3: just report very good numbers. The deposits didn't run out
Speaker 3: like people are talking about. This is nothing like that.
Speaker 3: There are a couple of banks that are offside this
Speaker 3: I to have size and industraight exposure and things like that,
Speaker 3: First Republic being one of them. We were asked by
Speaker 3: our government to step in, and we did, and we
Speaker 3: were able to handle it. I'm extremely proud. I hope
Speaker 3: Jen Peepzak and Marion Lake will looking at me now
Speaker 3: like what you all have done. Get an airplane Sunday
Speaker 3: night to fly out talk to people. You know, obviously
Speaker 3: it's a lot of work and you know, hard for people,
Speaker 3: but we're trying to show real humanity, you know, using
Speaker 3: redeployment of anyone who lose their job is try to
Speaker 3: find other jobs. At JP Morgan or elsewhere we had
Speaker 3: the cability to handle it. I think it's also assigned
Speaker 3: by the way, because we totally support community banks, we
Speaker 3: totally support regional banks. I would be carefully think what
Speaker 3: regulations have to be done as opposed to supervision, and
Speaker 3: we want them to do well. So I want to
Speaker 3: be very careful people go about that. So these this
Speaker 3: banking system, you know, we acknowledge their community banks do
Speaker 3: a lot of things we can't do. And so I
Speaker 3: think there are a critical part of the system. But
Speaker 3: so is a JP Morgan. You know, we bank small companies,
Speaker 3: large companies, We bank the IMF, the World Bank, we
Speaker 3: bank these stools, states, hospitals, We bank companies in thirty countries,
Speaker 3: you know, And so there's a reason that you have
Speaker 3: both large and small and all different types. And so
Speaker 3: I think we're over this part of it for the
Speaker 3: most part. There may be something else, but rising rates,
Speaker 3: if they get high enough, it canreers uglyhead again. And
Speaker 3: so I think, like I said, it's not just banks.
Speaker 3: People should be prepared for slightly higher rates than they've
Speaker 3: been used to in the past fifteen years.
Speaker 1: Are there further redundancies necessary associated with First Republic? We
Speaker 1: knew we were going to get a plan from you
Speaker 1: guys by the end of the month. It's the end
Speaker 1: of the month. We know, maybe a thousand jobs cut,
Speaker 1: but there's seven thousand employees there. Is there anything you
Speaker 1: can reveal on what further tightening is necessary as you
Speaker 1: integrate that bank.
Speaker 3: No, you know, I think the thousand bud it was
Speaker 3: less than what they had planned to do in their
Speaker 3: own And we need a lot of people, and you know,
Speaker 3: we have a lot of you know, we hire a
Speaker 3: lot of people. Hear, so I use the word redeployment.
Speaker 3: We're hoping that almost everyone who might lose their job,
Speaker 3: you know, and there might be some more, but almost
Speaker 3: everyone we could say, hey, we have this other job
Speaker 3: for you in the same city, you know, or or
Speaker 3: something like that. So you know, we're pretty good at
Speaker 3: that and hopefully we can provide opportunity. You know, we
Speaker 3: welcome the First First Republic people of a company. We're
Speaker 3: treating them with great humanity. I hope we're going to
Speaker 3: learn a lot from them. You know, very often when
Speaker 3: you do a do like this, you know people are angry.
Speaker 3: We're not. I've never been part of a company. We
Speaker 3: didn't buy someone, merger someone where you don't learn somebody
Speaker 3: from both sides, and so you know they have this
Speaker 3: wonderful wealth uh business, you know, in banking and wealth management,
Speaker 3: and you know we're we have a few things to
Speaker 3: learn and do. I mean, I've never seen I've gotten
Speaker 3: so many emails from very happy customers and that's a
Speaker 3: great thing. So what can we learn and what can
Speaker 3: we do better? For JP? Morgan Jayson.
Speaker 1: Now, Jamie, I know last week you talked a lot
Speaker 1: about succession or about your position that you're not talking
Speaker 1: about retirement right now. I do need to ask you though,
Speaker 1: And your name has been bandied about for years about
Speaker 1: public office. I mean, I don't think Wall Street's too
Speaker 1: pleased about the potential Trump versus Biden runoff next year.
Speaker 1: Is it any has that scenario ever crossed your mind
Speaker 1: that you would run from public office or even accept
Speaker 1: a cabinet position.
Speaker 3: You know, obviously it's crossed my mind because people mention
Speaker 3: things to you and stuff like that. I love my
Speaker 3: country and maybe one day I'll serve my country in
Speaker 3: one capacity or another. But I love what I do.
Speaker 3: I think, Jade, we're going to do a great job
Speaker 3: for helping Americans, helping countries around the world. And this
Speaker 3: is my job. This is what I'm going to do,
Speaker 3: and I'm quite happy doing it. I still have the
Speaker 3: energy to do it. I mentioned you know that when
Speaker 3: you don't, I think people should give up the job.
Speaker 3: I've got a fabulous management team what I really enjoy
Speaker 3: working with. So I'm here.
Speaker 1: David Diamond, thanks so much for your time. I'm Blueberg.
Speaker 3: Thank you.