1 00:00:02,000 --> 00:00:05,960 Speaker 1: Hi. I'm Andy Brown, the editorial director of the Bloomberg 2 00:00:06,120 --> 00:00:09,080 Speaker 1: New Economy. For the past few weeks, I've been sharing 3 00:00:09,160 --> 00:00:12,680 Speaker 1: highlights of my video broadcasts called on the front Lines 4 00:00:12,920 --> 00:00:16,520 Speaker 1: and Bloomberg New Economy Conversations, which look at how COVID 5 00:00:16,600 --> 00:00:20,560 Speaker 1: nineteen is reshaping the global economy. This is the final 6 00:00:20,600 --> 00:00:23,720 Speaker 1: installment before I hand back to Stephanie Flanders, who has 7 00:00:23,760 --> 00:00:27,200 Speaker 1: so generously allowed me to take over her feed. I 8 00:00:27,320 --> 00:00:30,560 Speaker 1: leave you with an interview I recorded with Jonathan Hillman 9 00:00:30,720 --> 00:00:34,080 Speaker 1: of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington 10 00:00:34,520 --> 00:00:39,320 Speaker 1: about his new book called The Emperor's New Road, China 11 00:00:39,479 --> 00:00:43,400 Speaker 1: and the Project of the Century. That project, of course, 12 00:00:43,880 --> 00:00:47,599 Speaker 1: is the Belton Road initiative, the grand strategy of Chinese 13 00:00:47,600 --> 00:00:51,640 Speaker 1: President she Jimping, who has made it his foreign policy signature. 14 00:00:52,520 --> 00:00:57,880 Speaker 1: But what is it exactly? An imperial effort, certainly, but 15 00:00:57,920 --> 00:01:02,120 Speaker 1: according to Jonathan, not of a organized one, and one 16 00:01:02,160 --> 00:01:05,960 Speaker 1: that could repeat the mistakes of empires long gone. Take 17 00:01:05,959 --> 00:01:13,080 Speaker 1: a listen. The title of your new book is The 18 00:01:13,120 --> 00:01:17,920 Speaker 1: Emperor's New Road, the Emperor being j and paying the 19 00:01:18,000 --> 00:01:22,240 Speaker 1: Chinese leader, the road being belt, and road is globes 20 00:01:22,600 --> 00:01:28,360 Speaker 1: spanning infrastructure connectivity project. How important is this project to 21 00:01:28,560 --> 00:01:35,280 Speaker 1: see and to his historical legacy. Well, this is his 22 00:01:35,360 --> 00:01:39,479 Speaker 1: signature foreign policy vision. Um. And so this is so 23 00:01:39,560 --> 00:01:44,560 Speaker 1: important that it's been written into the Chinese Party Chinese 24 00:01:44,560 --> 00:01:49,560 Speaker 1: Party constitution. UM. So tough to imagine it being more 25 00:01:49,560 --> 00:01:52,560 Speaker 1: important than it is. And in fact, I think that 26 00:01:52,640 --> 00:01:56,360 Speaker 1: the importance of this thing has almost become a liability. UM. 27 00:01:56,400 --> 00:02:00,880 Speaker 1: It's it makes canceling these projects all the more difficult. UM. 28 00:02:01,040 --> 00:02:03,200 Speaker 1: No one ever wants to be the person to cancel 29 00:02:03,440 --> 00:02:06,640 Speaker 1: an infrastructure project. But if you're a Chinese official, you 30 00:02:06,720 --> 00:02:09,160 Speaker 1: certainly don't want to be the person to cancel the 31 00:02:09,200 --> 00:02:13,760 Speaker 1: infrastructure project affiliated with shij and Ping's signature foreign policy vision. 32 00:02:15,560 --> 00:02:21,280 Speaker 1: Let's talk about roads. The Romans built roads too, straight roads, 33 00:02:21,320 --> 00:02:25,280 Speaker 1: and they marched their armies along these osteries. Is the 34 00:02:25,360 --> 00:02:29,200 Speaker 1: Belt and Road in your view more and imperialist project 35 00:02:29,360 --> 00:02:33,040 Speaker 1: like the Roman roads? Is it more about China find 36 00:02:33,120 --> 00:02:36,639 Speaker 1: finding outlets for his industrial surplus, is creating new markets 37 00:02:36,720 --> 00:02:40,640 Speaker 1: where products, goods, services, or as China would have it? 38 00:02:40,720 --> 00:02:43,959 Speaker 1: Is it all about providing public goods, highways, fiber optic 39 00:02:44,000 --> 00:02:47,080 Speaker 1: cables and so on, like the US martialled plan, but 40 00:02:47,160 --> 00:02:50,880 Speaker 1: for the whole world? So I do call it an 41 00:02:50,880 --> 00:02:54,400 Speaker 1: imperial project in the book, but it's different than the 42 00:02:54,440 --> 00:02:57,639 Speaker 1: imperial projects that have come before it. And that's something 43 00:02:57,639 --> 00:03:00,680 Speaker 1: I try to do, is I I lay out, UM, 44 00:03:00,720 --> 00:03:04,639 Speaker 1: you know, how this compares to UM, what European powers 45 00:03:04,680 --> 00:03:08,040 Speaker 1: were doing in Africa and Asia, what Japan was doing 46 00:03:08,080 --> 00:03:11,720 Speaker 1: in Southeast Asia, what the United States has done UM 47 00:03:11,880 --> 00:03:15,760 Speaker 1: in Pakistan. I think all of those experiences provide almost 48 00:03:15,800 --> 00:03:20,240 Speaker 1: a yardstick against which you can measure China's activities and 49 00:03:20,280 --> 00:03:23,239 Speaker 1: against which you can come to some conclusions about Chinese power. 50 00:03:23,800 --> 00:03:27,880 Speaker 1: And I think that this, this imperial project UM is 51 00:03:27,960 --> 00:03:33,040 Speaker 1: more gradual, UM, more incremental, It's more commercial in nature, 52 00:03:33,360 --> 00:03:37,080 Speaker 1: and I think China faces barriers to this project that 53 00:03:37,160 --> 00:03:40,680 Speaker 1: many of its predecessors did not face UM. But it 54 00:03:40,800 --> 00:03:43,360 Speaker 1: is going into some very risky markets. You mentioned the 55 00:03:43,400 --> 00:03:46,960 Speaker 1: Marshall Plan UM, and I think the Marshall Plan really 56 00:03:47,000 --> 00:03:50,320 Speaker 1: stands out because the Marshall Plan was a finite uh, 57 00:03:50,400 --> 00:03:51,760 Speaker 1: you know, it was going to last for a certain 58 00:03:51,840 --> 00:03:54,800 Speaker 1: number of years. It involved a specific number of countries. 59 00:03:55,520 --> 00:03:57,240 Speaker 1: There was a you know, a budget for the most 60 00:03:57,360 --> 00:03:59,040 Speaker 1: Marshal Plan. You could say what was in it and 61 00:03:59,080 --> 00:04:01,040 Speaker 1: what wasn't in it. You can't do that with the 62 00:04:01,040 --> 00:04:07,080 Speaker 1: Belton Road. It is open ended um and ever expanding UM. 63 00:04:07,200 --> 00:04:09,840 Speaker 1: And it involves developing countries. And I think one of 64 00:04:09,840 --> 00:04:12,480 Speaker 1: the lessons here um. You know, the United States learned 65 00:04:12,520 --> 00:04:17,279 Speaker 1: this in Pakistan as well. Um, Developing countries is a 66 00:04:17,320 --> 00:04:24,479 Speaker 1: lot more difficult than rebuilding developed economies. Skolars often note 67 00:04:24,560 --> 00:04:28,559 Speaker 1: that the original Silk Road was a two way into 68 00:04:28,680 --> 00:04:32,760 Speaker 1: change or exchange. China sent silk con pulsman one way, 69 00:04:32,960 --> 00:04:36,839 Speaker 1: and then in the other direction came ideas from other civilizations, 70 00:04:36,839 --> 00:04:41,680 Speaker 1: including Buddhism, which changed China. Two questions, One, what are 71 00:04:41,680 --> 00:04:45,680 Speaker 1: the most important Chinese exports along the Belton Road and 72 00:04:45,800 --> 00:04:50,400 Speaker 1: what comes back into China. So I think the most 73 00:04:50,440 --> 00:04:54,800 Speaker 1: important exports are China's state owned enterprises. I mean, they 74 00:04:54,839 --> 00:05:00,799 Speaker 1: are really the number one beneficiary of this undertaking. China 75 00:05:00,880 --> 00:05:04,600 Speaker 1: has seven of the world's ten largest construction companies. As 76 00:05:04,600 --> 00:05:06,280 Speaker 1: you know, they've built so much at home that they've 77 00:05:06,360 --> 00:05:08,880 Speaker 1: run out of things to build, and so now they're 78 00:05:08,960 --> 00:05:12,159 Speaker 1: they're eager for work abroad. Um. They are in many 79 00:05:12,200 --> 00:05:15,120 Speaker 1: cases the most influential actors on the grounds. They bring 80 00:05:15,160 --> 00:05:18,360 Speaker 1: with them, um, their own workers. In many cases, they 81 00:05:18,400 --> 00:05:21,120 Speaker 1: bring with them their own equipment. UM. So that that 82 00:05:21,240 --> 00:05:24,279 Speaker 1: is a major export UM. You know, and from that 83 00:05:24,400 --> 00:05:28,080 Speaker 1: also comes um. You know in some cases Chinese standards, 84 00:05:28,160 --> 00:05:32,160 Speaker 1: Chinese practices for for for building projects. UM. So, I 85 00:05:32,200 --> 00:05:34,560 Speaker 1: don't want to discount the standard setting importance of this 86 00:05:34,600 --> 00:05:38,560 Speaker 1: as well. UM. And then what comes back UM, I 87 00:05:38,600 --> 00:05:42,720 Speaker 1: think a lot less than is often advertised. Countries I 88 00:05:42,720 --> 00:05:45,080 Speaker 1: think signed m o US for the Belton Road and 89 00:05:45,480 --> 00:05:47,880 Speaker 1: politicians will say that this is going to increase our 90 00:05:47,920 --> 00:05:51,200 Speaker 1: exports to China. UM. I think, you know, the evidence 91 00:05:51,279 --> 00:05:54,200 Speaker 1: for that is pretty limited. UM. This is definitely something 92 00:05:54,279 --> 00:05:58,280 Speaker 1: that's financed by China, intended to benefit China UM and 93 00:05:58,400 --> 00:06:03,880 Speaker 1: benefiting most of all its stay enterprises. Sin Jong, the 94 00:06:03,960 --> 00:06:09,280 Speaker 1: major western gateway for the Belt in Road China explains 95 00:06:09,440 --> 00:06:11,839 Speaker 1: it's cracked down on the weak. Is there The u 96 00:06:12,000 --> 00:06:14,960 Speaker 1: N says more than a million weeks are incarcerated in 97 00:06:15,120 --> 00:06:20,240 Speaker 1: re education cats um. In terms of combating terrorism, the 98 00:06:20,320 --> 00:06:24,159 Speaker 1: security of Belton Road is clearly talk of mind. What 99 00:06:24,279 --> 00:06:27,960 Speaker 1: did you learn about Si Joan in writing this book 100 00:06:28,080 --> 00:06:31,200 Speaker 1: and how c looks at the whole question of security 101 00:06:31,200 --> 00:06:34,920 Speaker 1: there so, I think of the early days of Belton Road. 102 00:06:35,000 --> 00:06:38,880 Speaker 1: One of the arguments that was made for it domestically 103 00:06:38,920 --> 00:06:42,120 Speaker 1: within China, was that it was going to benefit less 104 00:06:42,120 --> 00:06:46,400 Speaker 1: developed regions, Western China being you know, an important part 105 00:06:46,440 --> 00:06:48,960 Speaker 1: of that. It was gonna help balance growth right between 106 00:06:48,960 --> 00:06:53,240 Speaker 1: the more developed coastal regions and the region's inland. UM. 107 00:06:53,360 --> 00:06:56,320 Speaker 1: That hasn't happened. And I think if you if you 108 00:06:56,400 --> 00:07:00,120 Speaker 1: go UM as I had the opportunity to do UM 109 00:07:00,160 --> 00:07:04,760 Speaker 1: a few years ago into Shinjin and UM, I think 110 00:07:04,760 --> 00:07:08,039 Speaker 1: it was very striking UM that this is an area 111 00:07:08,080 --> 00:07:11,640 Speaker 1: that's supposed to be critical for connecting China to other 112 00:07:11,680 --> 00:07:15,080 Speaker 1: countries through the Belton Road UM, and it is plagued 113 00:07:15,160 --> 00:07:22,640 Speaker 1: with UM, security checkpoints, UM, with police stations, UM. Economic 114 00:07:22,720 --> 00:07:26,680 Speaker 1: activity UM was quite slow, but you know, the security 115 00:07:26,720 --> 00:07:29,400 Speaker 1: sector was thriving. And so I think, to me, this 116 00:07:29,480 --> 00:07:33,280 Speaker 1: is a real UM, a real contradiction in the Belton Road, 117 00:07:33,320 --> 00:07:39,680 Speaker 1: a real tension between China's UM it's focus on connectivity 118 00:07:39,720 --> 00:07:44,360 Speaker 1: and how it describes the Belton Road and it's unwillingness 119 00:07:44,440 --> 00:07:47,400 Speaker 1: to give up control UM. And so I think you 120 00:07:47,480 --> 00:07:51,400 Speaker 1: see that really historically in Shinjin. I mean, you know, 121 00:07:51,720 --> 00:07:57,080 Speaker 1: even beyond the enormous human cost there, there's also this 122 00:07:57,160 --> 00:08:00,120 Speaker 1: economic cost of UM. You know, this is not a 123 00:08:00,200 --> 00:08:03,360 Speaker 1: place to do business to you know, have goods and 124 00:08:03,400 --> 00:08:07,480 Speaker 1: people moving freely. Um, that comes. That comes with a 125 00:08:07,560 --> 00:08:10,400 Speaker 1: high toll. And I think the bigger point here too 126 00:08:10,440 --> 00:08:13,600 Speaker 1: with the Belton Road initiative, this tension between connectivity and control. 127 00:08:14,800 --> 00:08:17,440 Speaker 1: It's that if those physical barriers, but it's also in 128 00:08:17,480 --> 00:08:20,760 Speaker 1: some ways you know, China's approach to connectivity. Um. You 129 00:08:20,760 --> 00:08:24,520 Speaker 1: know it's great firewall, um that it's sharing with other countries, 130 00:08:24,840 --> 00:08:28,040 Speaker 1: you know, sharing technology to limit the spread of ideas 131 00:08:28,040 --> 00:08:31,280 Speaker 1: and information. Um, you know, putting capital controls in place 132 00:08:31,320 --> 00:08:33,920 Speaker 1: to limit the flow of finance. So this is really 133 00:08:34,200 --> 00:08:37,520 Speaker 1: UM to me, a a core, a core tension in 134 00:08:37,600 --> 00:08:44,040 Speaker 1: this global vision of connectivity. Roads require plants. They are 135 00:08:44,200 --> 00:08:49,840 Speaker 1: rather precise engineering projects. But you look at Belton Road 136 00:08:50,480 --> 00:08:55,680 Speaker 1: rather differently. To you it's anything but carefully laid out. 137 00:08:55,880 --> 00:09:01,160 Speaker 1: Great explain that. So sometimes you'll see you'll see maps 138 00:09:01,200 --> 00:09:03,360 Speaker 1: of the Belton Road, um, you know, and there are 139 00:09:03,400 --> 00:09:05,880 Speaker 1: many maps, and they're they're there are not. I don't 140 00:09:05,880 --> 00:09:08,680 Speaker 1: think that there really is an official Belton Road map. 141 00:09:08,760 --> 00:09:11,760 Speaker 1: There's just different depictions of this. UM. But at some 142 00:09:11,800 --> 00:09:15,359 Speaker 1: point Chinese officials started saying that there were six corridors 143 00:09:15,400 --> 00:09:19,400 Speaker 1: in the Belton Road. Um. And so there's broad sweeping 144 00:09:19,440 --> 00:09:23,320 Speaker 1: lines across the Eurasian Supercontinent and it gives this this 145 00:09:24,120 --> 00:09:29,280 Speaker 1: feeling of form and structure that when you actually go 146 00:09:29,320 --> 00:09:33,679 Speaker 1: and look, does not exist. UM. So no evidence that 147 00:09:33,800 --> 00:09:38,640 Speaker 1: China is channeling economic activity into these corridors, with the 148 00:09:38,679 --> 00:09:42,319 Speaker 1: exception of the China Pakistan Economic Corridor, which by the way, 149 00:09:42,440 --> 00:09:45,440 Speaker 1: is not very focused on connectivity at all. And so 150 00:09:45,520 --> 00:09:48,600 Speaker 1: in a way it's the exception that proves the rule. Um. 151 00:09:48,840 --> 00:09:51,679 Speaker 1: But a lot of the activity is really more opportunistic, 152 00:09:52,080 --> 00:09:56,440 Speaker 1: more disorganized, sometimes chaotic, um. But you don't get that 153 00:09:56,480 --> 00:09:59,559 Speaker 1: impression from listening to a Shijian Pings speech at a 154 00:09:59,600 --> 00:10:02,520 Speaker 1: Belton For him, that really requires going and looking at 155 00:10:02,559 --> 00:10:06,480 Speaker 1: individual projects and stepping back and asking whether they reflect 156 00:10:06,600 --> 00:10:10,480 Speaker 1: a lot of the rhetoric that's being used the US. 157 00:10:10,600 --> 00:10:14,800 Speaker 1: Of course, portrays Belton Road is a debt trap China 158 00:10:15,120 --> 00:10:19,800 Speaker 1: forcing expensive infrastructure onto emerging economies like Sri Lanka and 159 00:10:19,840 --> 00:10:24,360 Speaker 1: then swooping in to take over ownership when debts go unpaid. 160 00:10:25,440 --> 00:10:29,640 Speaker 1: What does that narrative get right about the Belton Road 161 00:10:29,679 --> 00:10:34,000 Speaker 1: and what does it obscure? So the debt trap narrative, 162 00:10:34,559 --> 00:10:37,480 Speaker 1: I think in a way gives Chinese officials too much credit. 163 00:10:38,040 --> 00:10:42,360 Speaker 1: This idea that they have strategically raised a country's debt 164 00:10:42,440 --> 00:10:44,760 Speaker 1: levels to a point that they can then take hold 165 00:10:44,840 --> 00:10:49,760 Speaker 1: of a strategic asset. UM. That's very that's very sophisticated. 166 00:10:49,800 --> 00:10:53,840 Speaker 1: Economic statecraft involves having lots of different actors on the 167 00:10:53,920 --> 00:10:57,600 Speaker 1: same page. UM. To me, it's much more likely the 168 00:10:57,640 --> 00:11:00,560 Speaker 1: Hammond Tode case in Sri Lanka that so much has 169 00:11:00,600 --> 00:11:04,200 Speaker 1: been made of the poster child for debt trapped diplomacy. 170 00:11:04,440 --> 00:11:07,680 Speaker 1: It's much more likely to me that China was trying 171 00:11:07,720 --> 00:11:11,640 Speaker 1: to limit its losses UM in taking over that court, 172 00:11:11,720 --> 00:11:14,319 Speaker 1: but not that it's set out to have this be 173 00:11:14,960 --> 00:11:17,679 Speaker 1: its ultimate goal, because I think, frankly, the project has 174 00:11:17,720 --> 00:11:22,800 Speaker 1: been a stain on the Belton Road on China's reputation. UM. 175 00:11:22,880 --> 00:11:26,080 Speaker 1: And you know, not a lot of economic activity happening 176 00:11:26,120 --> 00:11:29,040 Speaker 1: at him and Tota Port Um. And so the real 177 00:11:29,120 --> 00:11:31,079 Speaker 1: story of him and Tote port which I get into 178 00:11:31,120 --> 00:11:33,640 Speaker 1: in the book, I think, is a little bit less 179 00:11:33,640 --> 00:11:37,520 Speaker 1: spy thriller, a little bit more Shakespearean drama. UM and 180 00:11:37,600 --> 00:11:41,520 Speaker 1: domestic politics are are the key. UM. It's really you 181 00:11:41,600 --> 00:11:48,000 Speaker 1: know about um politicians, unchecked ambission and ego UM, and 182 00:11:49,280 --> 00:11:52,840 Speaker 1: the facts unfortunate fact that Sri Lanka now has to 183 00:11:52,840 --> 00:11:58,679 Speaker 1: pay the price for that. Well, what about Chinese financial liabilities? 184 00:11:58,800 --> 00:12:01,280 Speaker 1: China itself is sitting and amounted a debt and here 185 00:12:01,280 --> 00:12:03,880 Speaker 1: it is lending to shake the economies and what you 186 00:12:04,120 --> 00:12:06,960 Speaker 1: just described as some of the risk es places on Earth, 187 00:12:07,000 --> 00:12:11,439 Speaker 1: including Pakistan. Does that come a point where China runs 188 00:12:11,440 --> 00:12:17,680 Speaker 1: out of money to fund this grand road building ambition. Yes. 189 00:12:17,720 --> 00:12:20,400 Speaker 1: The risk runs both ways, and I think that's important 190 00:12:20,400 --> 00:12:23,760 Speaker 1: to remember. I think there's this idea sometimes that even 191 00:12:23,800 --> 00:12:26,760 Speaker 1: when China fails, it wins, and I don't think that 192 00:12:26,760 --> 00:12:29,520 Speaker 1: that's the case. So there is financial risk, there's reputational 193 00:12:29,640 --> 00:12:33,600 Speaker 1: risk um. And in fact, even before the pandemic we 194 00:12:33,640 --> 00:12:36,720 Speaker 1: saw a really a pretty pronounced pull back in Belton 195 00:12:36,800 --> 00:12:39,720 Speaker 1: road activity. So you know, peak Belton road activity was 196 00:12:39,760 --> 00:12:46,640 Speaker 1: probably a big pull back. UM. And now the pandemic 197 00:12:46,679 --> 00:12:50,240 Speaker 1: has really frozen things. You know, Chinese officials are saying, um, 198 00:12:50,320 --> 00:12:53,680 Speaker 1: you know close to projects are impacted by this, but 199 00:12:53,760 --> 00:12:56,240 Speaker 1: they will still tell you don't worry, no major projects 200 00:12:56,280 --> 00:12:58,800 Speaker 1: have been canceled. Again, I think, going back to this 201 00:12:58,880 --> 00:13:02,400 Speaker 1: idea that this is Shusun paying signature foreign policy vision. 202 00:13:02,720 --> 00:13:06,520 Speaker 1: So the risk is there, and I think because of 203 00:13:06,679 --> 00:13:09,679 Speaker 1: how important this is politically, you know, I think that 204 00:13:09,720 --> 00:13:14,959 Speaker 1: the risk has been underappreciated and UM and and maybe 205 00:13:15,000 --> 00:13:18,600 Speaker 1: overlooked to some extent. You say, of the projects have 206 00:13:18,600 --> 00:13:21,400 Speaker 1: have have been put on hold. Is is this a 207 00:13:21,480 --> 00:13:24,840 Speaker 1: permanent set back to Belton Road or just a temporary 208 00:13:24,840 --> 00:13:29,079 Speaker 1: phenomena that and it gets restarted when COVID is under control. 209 00:13:29,960 --> 00:13:32,160 Speaker 1: So I think this is this year and you know 210 00:13:32,240 --> 00:13:35,040 Speaker 1: in the next year, is I think the great renegotiation 211 00:13:35,320 --> 00:13:38,440 Speaker 1: along the Belton Road. I think UM, Chinese officials are 212 00:13:38,440 --> 00:13:43,600 Speaker 1: spending more time renegotiating deals than negotiating new deals. The 213 00:13:43,640 --> 00:13:47,200 Speaker 1: project pipeline was already slowing down before the pandemic, and 214 00:13:47,240 --> 00:13:50,600 Speaker 1: so I think this, you know, will accelerate a process 215 00:13:50,640 --> 00:13:54,360 Speaker 1: that was already in place. UM. Recipient countries are you know, 216 00:13:54,440 --> 00:13:56,320 Speaker 1: have are going to be quite limited in what they 217 00:13:56,360 --> 00:13:58,600 Speaker 1: can can do, what they can take on. So that's 218 00:13:58,600 --> 00:14:02,400 Speaker 1: going to impose a constraint around this. UM And also 219 00:14:02,440 --> 00:14:05,120 Speaker 1: if you just imagine what the world of infrastructure projects 220 00:14:05,120 --> 00:14:09,520 Speaker 1: looked like when this was announced, you had some some 221 00:14:09,559 --> 00:14:12,880 Speaker 1: targets that were ready to go. But the longer you 222 00:14:12,960 --> 00:14:15,800 Speaker 1: do this, the more difficult it becomes to find those, 223 00:14:15,880 --> 00:14:17,760 Speaker 1: you know, the low hanging fruits. So the low hanging 224 00:14:17,800 --> 00:14:20,520 Speaker 1: fruit has been picked um and it turns out that 225 00:14:20,600 --> 00:14:24,000 Speaker 1: some of it was rotten. How much? How much has 226 00:14:24,080 --> 00:14:28,920 Speaker 1: China spend on it so far? So all of these estimates, 227 00:14:29,320 --> 00:14:31,640 Speaker 1: any Belton Road estimate, including the one that I'm about 228 00:14:31,640 --> 00:14:34,440 Speaker 1: to give, should be taken with a grain of salt. Um. 229 00:14:34,480 --> 00:14:37,280 Speaker 1: It depends on what you count for countries participating and 230 00:14:37,320 --> 00:14:39,880 Speaker 1: what activities and so on. The best data that I 231 00:14:39,960 --> 00:14:42,440 Speaker 1: have seen suggests that this is still a little bit 232 00:14:42,480 --> 00:14:46,320 Speaker 1: south of five billion dollars in terms of total activity 233 00:14:46,760 --> 00:14:50,600 Speaker 1: across country is participating in the Belton Roads and since 234 00:14:50,640 --> 00:14:54,360 Speaker 1: it was announced in so not the one trillion that's 235 00:14:54,400 --> 00:14:57,280 Speaker 1: often assigned to it, certainly not the four trillion that's 236 00:14:57,320 --> 00:14:59,960 Speaker 1: sometimes assigned to it, and definitely not the eight trilli 237 00:15:00,040 --> 00:15:04,680 Speaker 1: and um that you occasionally here. Final question you your 238 00:15:04,680 --> 00:15:09,520 Speaker 1: book is pot Egano makes Pocio politics, but also pot travelogue. 239 00:15:10,480 --> 00:15:14,640 Speaker 1: You actually road railways in Africa helped cargo ships a 240 00:15:14,640 --> 00:15:18,360 Speaker 1: carls the Caspian. When we all start traveling a gating 241 00:15:18,400 --> 00:15:21,040 Speaker 1: off to COVID, what pots of Belton road would you 242 00:15:21,160 --> 00:15:24,880 Speaker 1: recommend visiting, particularly for those of your rita's with a 243 00:15:24,960 --> 00:15:29,520 Speaker 1: taste for adventure. So I think it's becoming easier now 244 00:15:29,600 --> 00:15:33,600 Speaker 1: to find um the boat that I took from Kazakhstan 245 00:15:33,680 --> 00:15:38,000 Speaker 1: into Azerbaijan Um. You know, when I was looking for it, 246 00:15:38,120 --> 00:15:40,960 Speaker 1: I was told it was going to come to one port. Um. 247 00:15:41,120 --> 00:15:44,640 Speaker 1: Then I'm on on online tracking ships trying to get 248 00:15:44,640 --> 00:15:46,960 Speaker 1: a sense for whether it's actually gonna show up. Showed 249 00:15:47,080 --> 00:15:49,400 Speaker 1: up at at a port, a new port that was 250 00:15:49,440 --> 00:15:52,240 Speaker 1: an hour away, UM, and so I had to scramble 251 00:15:52,240 --> 00:15:55,640 Speaker 1: to get on it. It was a thirty two hour ride. 252 00:15:55,960 --> 00:15:59,200 Speaker 1: But really unlike anything you know, I have done before, 253 00:15:59,440 --> 00:16:01,920 Speaker 1: you know, to be on the on the roof of 254 00:16:02,080 --> 00:16:08,280 Speaker 1: a U ship going across the Caspian Um, it's something special, 255 00:16:08,320 --> 00:16:11,440 Speaker 1: and so it's a it's a adventure that most people 256 00:16:11,520 --> 00:16:14,720 Speaker 1: don't take. It was me and a gang of Russian 257 00:16:14,760 --> 00:16:17,800 Speaker 1: bikers actually who wanted to get their motorcycles from Kazakhstan 258 00:16:17,880 --> 00:16:24,160 Speaker 1: to Azerbaijan Um. So some interesting company. Jonathan Hillman The 259 00:16:24,240 --> 00:16:27,720 Speaker 1: Emperor's New Road, Thanks for your time. It's been great 260 00:16:27,760 --> 00:16:32,960 Speaker 1: talking with you. Thanks to having me, Thanks for listening. 261 00:16:33,080 --> 00:16:35,240 Speaker 1: I hope you'll tune in later this year for a 262 00:16:35,280 --> 00:16:39,240 Speaker 1: digital edition of the annual Bloomberg New Economy Forum. With 263 00:16:39,440 --> 00:16:42,680 Speaker 1: business and government leaders from around the world, we'll talk 264 00:16:42,720 --> 00:16:46,720 Speaker 1: about the challenge of building a more sustainable and equitable 265 00:16:46,840 --> 00:16:55,239 Speaker 1: post COVID economy.