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Speaker 1: Hello, They're happy Monday, Happy Election week.

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Speaker 2: It is.

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Speaker 1: We are here Monday, November third. I am taping on

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Speaker 1: November second, so full disclosure on that. I just got

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Speaker 1: back from the first annual Todd Bowl as somebody, as

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Speaker 1: a friend of mine tweeted with me, was the University

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Speaker 1: of Miami playing SMU in Dallas. I have one child

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Speaker 1: at Miami, one child at SMU. Many of you know

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Speaker 1: my love for the Miami Hurricanes. I have a lot

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Speaker 1: to say about a lot going on in college football

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Speaker 1: and the future of the University of Miami, but I

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Speaker 1: will hold off on those comments, like every Monday to

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Speaker 1: the end of the podcast, to sort of it is

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Speaker 1: good not to react in the immediacy. That's always. It's

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Speaker 1: good in politics, it's good in sports, it's good in

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Speaker 1: life in general. You always want to take a breath.

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Speaker 1: So I believe, especially for my fellow Hurricane fans who

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Speaker 1: care about the program as much as I do, would

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Speaker 1: like to see another national title in our lifetime. I'd

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Speaker 1: like to think I'm looking at this with some very

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Speaker 1: sober eyes. So I encourage you, if you care about

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Speaker 1: that stuff, to go back. There. A few other thoughts

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Speaker 1: in general about what is turning into a coaching massacre

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Speaker 1: in college football with yet another one gone there. But

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Speaker 1: let's be honest, this is a big deal. We are

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Speaker 1: essentially at the one year mark of the election, of

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Speaker 1: the second election of Donald Trump. And what happens at

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Speaker 1: the one year mark. You get a slew of polling,

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Speaker 1: of good polling, particularly my favorite poll, the poll that

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Speaker 1: I helped keep around and update and up keep, and

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Speaker 1: it is still in some existence at NBC. Doesn't come

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Speaker 1: out as frequently as it used to, but it does

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Speaker 1: come out two or three times a year. The NBC

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Speaker 1: poll with hartmcinturf, the bipartisan poll that essentially still is

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Speaker 1: seen by everybody else as the gold standard in American

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Speaker 1: election polling. And so I've gone through it pretty deeply,

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Speaker 1: and I want to share with you sort of my

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Speaker 1: takes on it. I know you've seen. There's a few

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Speaker 1: things out there are eye popping headline. Democrats have an

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Speaker 1: eight point advantage on the generic ballot in the NBC poll.

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Speaker 1: When you see a you take that here, you see

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Speaker 1: that anywhere else, you think, oh, they must have had

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Speaker 1: a banded sample. We are the NBC poll, and Heart

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Speaker 1: and McInturff are so careful not to let it be volatile,

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Speaker 1: if you will, that it is a remarkable showing, especially

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Speaker 1: as the same poll shows such unpopularity for the Democratic

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Speaker 1: Party even as they have this huge lead. So this

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Speaker 1: is a massive, I think, new place that we are

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Speaker 1: in in American politics. We've not had a situation like

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Speaker 1: this before where you have extraordinarily unpopular president, extraordinarily unpopular

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Speaker 1: opposition party. Something's going to have to give. Come the

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Speaker 1: midterm elections, we are going to get a first taste

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Speaker 1: of where stand I think nationally for both parties, with

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Speaker 1: of course the elections on Tuesday, and a huge reminder,

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Speaker 1: I will be anchoring a live election night special with

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Speaker 1: my friends at Decision to s h Q, my friend

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Speaker 1: Chrysalizzo and a slew of people that I think. Let

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Speaker 1: me tease out some of the guests that we already

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Speaker 1: have confirmed. I will tell you now. We've got Jacob Rubashkin,

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Speaker 1: Jaron Zao, Jessica Taylor, David Wildstein, Lisa Miller, Abigail Turner,

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Speaker 1: Bill Baronihn Couvoyan Couvalleon, Sorry if I messed that up.

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Speaker 1: Kirk Beto of the Hotline, Nathaniel Rakitch, Leon Sid Adam Carlson, Lakeisha,

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Speaker 1: Jane Arminge, Thomas, John Fleisman, Garrett Heron. That's just again,

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Speaker 1: we're going for five hours minimum, from about six thirty

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Speaker 1: to eleven eleven thirty, so maybe four or four and

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Speaker 1: a half hours minim. We're going to go until we

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Speaker 1: call California, and of course make sure we're called every

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Speaker 1: race has been called in Virginia, New Jersey, New York City,

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Speaker 1: and California. We're not going to go to bed, but

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Speaker 1: we're going to touch on mayor's races. Is a fascinating

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Speaker 1: pattern that we're starting to see develop in these urban

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Speaker 1: primary fights, mostly on the left. You got those Pennsylvania

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Speaker 1: Supreme Court judges that are going to are up there

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Speaker 1: for an up or down vote, which if they go down,

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Speaker 1: then we have very partisan, important judicial elections taking place

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Speaker 1: in twenty twenty seven, which could have huge impacts on

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Speaker 1: the twenty twenty eight presidential race. Given Pennsylvania standing in

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Speaker 1: the battleground. There's a slew of ballot props that I

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Speaker 1: want to tease out a little bit when it comes

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Speaker 1: to Texas in particular and Maine, two sort of testing

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Speaker 1: issues that may appear local but could have some national ramifications,

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Speaker 1: So I do want to discuss that today. So I

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Speaker 1: think let's first start huge, huge picture here, and yes,

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Speaker 1: I'll do some Q and A. Oh, and I'm like

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Speaker 1: leaving out the main course. The main course for this

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Speaker 1: episode is my conversation with rich Tawe. Rich taw is

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Speaker 1: a survey researcher. He is basically he runs something called

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Speaker 1: the Swing Voter Project. If you take a look at it,

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Speaker 1: He's done some work for Axios, He's done some work

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Speaker 1: for NBC News, for Syracuse, for all sorts of places.

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Speaker 1: He does these terrific focus groups focused on the single

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Speaker 1: most important voter in American politics. Right at first we

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Speaker 1: called them the Obama Trump voters. Then we called them

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Speaker 1: the Trump Biden voters. Now we call them the Biden

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Speaker 1: to Trump voters. But it's these voters that are vacillating,

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Speaker 1: that are going back and forth. And he just focuses

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Speaker 1: on the seven main battleground states. We have a deep

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Speaker 1: dive some responses. He just finished up in Pennsylvania, so

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Speaker 1: we will. You'll get to see some of these focus

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Speaker 1: group clips if you're watching the video podcast, we're going

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Speaker 1: to use some of those clips his analysis. If you're

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Speaker 1: trying to understand the swing voter in America. I think

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Speaker 1: this conversation is exactly the conversation wants. So look, it

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Speaker 1: is election week. I am geeking out heavily. I got

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Speaker 1: rich Tau to talk about the battleground vote state voters.

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Speaker 1: I've got a brand new NBC poll that I want

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Speaker 1: to dig into and share with you my exclusive analysis.

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Speaker 1: We're going to have some preview of what's happening in

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Speaker 1: the last twenty four hours of campaign twenty twenty five,

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Speaker 1: the sort of the Mamdani tests that Democrats are trying

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Speaker 1: to figure out how to deal with. It's been fascinating

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Speaker 1: Barack Obama's non endorsement, but praising him for his campaign

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Speaker 1: a fascinating attempt. Is there a tight wire to walk

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Speaker 1: like that? Anyway? And of course the post all of

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Speaker 1: that stuff. So, like I said, a huge, a huge episode.

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Speaker 1: So let's get started, and I want to begin with

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Speaker 1: essentially the first year report card for Donald Trump. Yes,

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Speaker 1: it's yet one year into his presidency, but it's one

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Speaker 1: year since he was elected president. And I know, you know,

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Speaker 1: it's funny. I've been in this business a long time

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Speaker 1: where we do we always do a November polls and

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Speaker 1: we always do January polls that essentially are serving as

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Speaker 1: checks where are we one year from the election? Where

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Speaker 1: are we one year from when he took office? So

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Speaker 1: in this case, we are one year from the election,

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Speaker 1: and let's look at some basics, if you will, the

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Speaker 1: big the direction of the country. And this is one

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Speaker 1: of those where you can and this is a reminder

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Speaker 1: of how a partisan media person would work. Okay, so

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Speaker 1: here's right direction, wrong track. It is thirty seven sixty one,

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Speaker 1: thirty seven percent right track. That is not a great number.

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Speaker 1: That is down from forty four percent the first NBC

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Speaker 1: poll of the Trump presidency. So at the start of

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Speaker 1: his presidency, it was a pretty high right track number

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Speaker 1: considering we've been in a what I would call a

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Speaker 1: political recession for most of the century, where a majority

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Speaker 1: of people have consistent said we're on the wrong track.

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Speaker 1: There was just one brief period, one brief period during

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Speaker 1: the start of Obama's presidency that those two lines were

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Speaker 1: essentially dead even right track wrong track. And we've been

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Speaker 1: essentially on the wrong track really going back since since

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Speaker 1: I'd say about a year into the Iraq War post

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Speaker 1: nine to eleven, and it has been a consistent wrong track,

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Speaker 1: wrong track, wrong track. However, if you wanted to spind

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Speaker 1: the thirty seven percent right direction in Donald Trump's direction,

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Speaker 1: you'd say this, well, thirty seven percent of the country

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Speaker 1: says we're on the we're in the right direction, sixty

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Speaker 1: one percent on the wrong track. That thirty seven percent,

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Speaker 1: we haven't been that high that high since. Obviously there

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Speaker 1: was forty four percent of March, but before then, it

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Speaker 1: hasn't been as high as thirty seven since going back

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Speaker 1: to the start of COVID in March of twenty when

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Speaker 1: there was a bit of a of almost rally around

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Speaker 1: the president moment when everybody was trying to unify for

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Speaker 1: a very brief period on dealing with COVID, you saw

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Speaker 1: that number inch up, and then it dramatically fell down

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Speaker 1: to nineteen percent right direction seventy two percent wrong track.

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Speaker 1: And that was pretty That seventy percent plus consistent wrong

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Speaker 1: track essentially July of twenty was pretty consistent all the

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Speaker 1: way until the summer of twenty twenty four, and still

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Speaker 1: at election day in twenty twenty four, we were sitting

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Speaker 1: at sixty six percent wrong track. So you could make

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Speaker 1: the case if you just wanted to spin this in

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Speaker 1: Trump's direction. Hey, there's still more people say we're on

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Speaker 1: the right track than any time during the Biden presidency,

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Speaker 1: and that would be true. But it's the trend line

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Speaker 1: that you've got to be aware of, where the fact

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Speaker 1: is that it is now directionally going back to what

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Speaker 1: was the norm during the end of Trump's presidency, most

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Speaker 1: of Trump's presidency and going in to that. So that

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Speaker 1: is a yellow flashing yellow light. Thirty again, thirty seven

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Speaker 1: is still highigher than at any moment in Biden's presidency,

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Speaker 1: but it is eight points lower, excuse me, seven points

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Speaker 1: lower than it was at the start of the year.

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Speaker 1: And it does appear when you see other polling in

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Speaker 1: there that it is trending downward. Now here's my favorite

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Speaker 1: aspect of sort of trending. You know, I've pointed this

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Speaker 1: out to you before. But Donald Trump, in many ways,

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Speaker 1: he can't really move his numbers. The country has made

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Speaker 1: up its mind on Donald Trump. How do I know this?

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Speaker 1: So I went through our all of the polling we

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Speaker 1: did on Donald Trump. NBC News did on Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: from twenty seventeen through twenty twenty. Okay, we NBC conducted.

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Speaker 1: He keeps saying we it is not we. It's been

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Speaker 1: a long time since it's we almost a year now.

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Speaker 1: Thirty nine polls in his first term, all thirty nine polls,

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Speaker 1: and when you average out his job approval rating in

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Speaker 1: those thirty nine polls, just the entire just average it out,

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Speaker 1: his job approval rating was forty three point seven percent.

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Speaker 2: What is the job.

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Speaker 1: Approval rating in this latest NBC News poll released this weekend,

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Speaker 1: forty three percent. His number doesn't budge. His trading range

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Speaker 1: is really small. It is can get. It has gotten

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Speaker 1: as high as he got. Forty seven percent was his honeymoon.

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Speaker 1: That was March of twenty twenty five. He hit forty

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Speaker 1: seven percent. In October of eighteen, when he got his

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Speaker 1: tax cut passed, he hit and then he's never been

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Speaker 1: over forty seven in the NBC Player forty seven percent

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Speaker 1: in February, at the start of COVID. It's never been

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Speaker 1: north of forty seven now. His lows have all been

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Speaker 1: were super early in his presidency, at thirty nine percent

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Speaker 1: in April of eighteen, thirty nine percent in January of eighteen.

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Speaker 1: He was at thirty eight percent in October of seventeen.

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Speaker 1: Other than that, though he has not visited the thirties.

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Speaker 1: The last time he was in the thirties essentially was

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Speaker 1: April of eighteen. He has essentially been and I'll just

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Speaker 1: say forty four, forty five, forty six, forty four, forty four,

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Speaker 1: forty seven, forty six, forty three, forty three, forty six,

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Speaker 1: forty three, forty six, forty four, forty five, forty three,

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Speaker 1: forty five, forty Am I making my point here. I'm

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Speaker 1: not going to keep going and going and going. But

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Speaker 1: that is just remarkable stability. Okay, that forty three percent

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Speaker 1: there is. That's the chunk of voters that you know

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Speaker 1: are going to be with the republic Trump led Republican Party.

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Speaker 1: And I say Trump led Republican Party here because there's

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Speaker 1: another interesting question that again will depend on how you

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Speaker 1: want to present the question, will kind of give a

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Speaker 1: hint at your partisan perspective if you're not careful. A

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Speaker 1: few other things to note. You are starting to see

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump's favorable rating go back. He again had a

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Speaker 1: bit of a honeymoon. He had a thirty six percent

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Speaker 1: positive rating. It was the highest personal positive rating that

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Speaker 1: he had ever recorded. That is already backed down down

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Speaker 1: to twenty nine on very positive, which is a lot

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Speaker 1: more in line with where he was most of the

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Speaker 1: campaign year. So he's still better. He still has a

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Speaker 1: better very positive rating in this second term and from

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Speaker 1: the second campaign than he ever did first. And what

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Speaker 1: that is is that that's the deepest space, right the

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Speaker 1: twenty nine percent who say they have a very positive

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Speaker 1: view of him, they are with him through thick and thin.

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Speaker 1: It's another eleven percent say say somewhat positive. So you're

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Speaker 1: looking at forty percent that just feel very positively about

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Speaker 1: Donald Trump, and is approve ratings forty three, So it's

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Speaker 1: just really only there's only three. If you just assume

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Speaker 1: that the forty of the forty three feel very positive

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Speaker 1: about him, it means that there aren't people that approve

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Speaker 1: of that don't like them and approve of the job

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Speaker 1: he's doing. There are people that don't like them and

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Speaker 1: don't and approve of his goals of what he's trying

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Speaker 1: to achieve, but they don't like how he's trying to

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Speaker 1: get those goals. And again, this poll features some interesting

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Speaker 1: things that will get us there, but the big headline

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Speaker 1: of this poll really is that generic ballot number and

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Speaker 1: let me go, and it is it is astonishing that

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Speaker 1: Democrats have an eight point lead October of twenty twenty

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Speaker 1: five eight point lead in the generic, Democrats at fifty,

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Speaker 1: Republicans at forty two. The last time they had gaps

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Speaker 1: anywhere over five points, let alone eight nine or ten,

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Speaker 1: was in the run up to the twenty eighteen midterms.

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Speaker 1: So you're almost seeing we are in a repeat. And

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Speaker 1: in fact, Democrats are plus eight right basically one year

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Speaker 1: out from the midterms in the generic ballot. In October

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Speaker 1: of seventeen, this same point in time, one year out

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Speaker 1: from the twenty eighteen midterms, Democrats were up seven points

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Speaker 1: in the generic ballot. So as you can see, we

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Speaker 1: are trending in the almost it looks like in the

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Speaker 1: exact we are literally having a rerun, right, it's a

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Speaker 1: rerun of the Trump job rating forty three percent. Entire

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Speaker 1: first term is forty three point seven. He's sitting at

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Speaker 1: forty three percent one year before the midterms and Trump

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Speaker 1: one point zero. Democrats had a seven point le in

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Speaker 1: the generic one year before the midterms and Trump two

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Speaker 1: point zero. Democrats have an eight point lead in the generic.

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Speaker 1: So there's on one hand you think, boy history is

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Speaker 1: repeating itself, but there is one giant difference between twenty eighteen,

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Speaker 1: twenty seventeen, in twenty twenty six and twenty twenty five,

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Speaker 1: and it is the personal favorable rating of the Democratic

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Speaker 1: Party versus the Republican Party. The Republican Party is a

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Speaker 1: positive rating of thirty seven percent, negative rating of forty

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Speaker 1: six percent. The Democratic Party is a positive rating of

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Speaker 1: twenty eight percent in a negative rating of fifty three percent.

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Speaker 1: Let me say that again, a negative rating of fifty

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Speaker 1: three percent. They have a twenty five point gap, okay,

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Speaker 1: between positive rating for the Democratic Party and the negative

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Speaker 1: rating for the Democratic Party fifty three percent. In contrast,

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Speaker 1: the Republican Party's gap is less than is not even digits.

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Speaker 1: It's thirty seven percent positive, forty six percent negative, just

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Speaker 1: a nine point negative gap. Donald Trump has a larger

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Speaker 1: negative gap between favorable and unfavorable than the Republican Party does.

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Speaker 1: This is an important nugget here, okay, because I think

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Speaker 1: this explained the generic ballot gap quite well, and what

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Speaker 1: the voter is likely, what we're likely seeing with the

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Speaker 1: swing voter. And again this is really going to go

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Speaker 1: well what you're hearing with these polling numbers, and I'm

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Speaker 1: that I'm delivering to you is going to really does

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Speaker 1: sort of coincide really well with the conversations you're going

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Speaker 1: to hear from rich taw you know, the qualitative research,

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Speaker 1: focus group stuff versus the quantitative that I'm giving you

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Speaker 1: right now. But that massive gap, and just to give

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Speaker 1: you an idea of where we were in October of

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Speaker 1: twenty seventeen, Okay, at this part, the most recent numbers

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Speaker 1: I can look at here December of twenty seventeen, the

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Speaker 1: net favorable rating of the Democratic Party was thirty three percent.

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Speaker 1: The net negative was thirty eight percent. Okay, so just

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Speaker 1: a five point gap, Just a five point gap. It's

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Speaker 1: now again, that was a five point gap essentially one

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Speaker 1: year out from the twenty eight twenty eighteen midterms. Look,

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Speaker 1: we know the whole country is a net negative view

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Speaker 1: of both parties, Okay, that we know that a majority

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Speaker 1: of this country don't like either political party. But you

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Speaker 1: had a five point gap in twenty at this point

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Speaker 1: in time in twenty seventeen on the Democratic Party favorable

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Speaker 1: to unfavorable ratio, it is a twenty five point gap. Now,

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Speaker 1: now let me tell you the Republican number, so you

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Speaker 1: can get some clear clarity on that Republicans net in

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Speaker 1: twenty seventeen, they were sitting at twenty nine forty five. Okay,

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Speaker 1: essentially one year out twenty nine forty five, that is

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Speaker 1: a sixteen point gap. Here they are with an improved

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Speaker 1: Republican Party rating this time where their gap is only

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Speaker 1: nine points less than ten. So Donald Trump hasn't changed,

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Speaker 1: but the Democratic Party has changed and the Republican Party

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Speaker 1: has changed. What's interesting is that there appears to be

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Speaker 1: a group of voters that feel more favorably to the

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Speaker 1: Republican Party then they do Donald Trump. Now you would say, hmm,

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Speaker 1: that should lead to some interesting decisions by Republicans who

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Speaker 1: maybe want to be seeking reelection in twenty twenty six

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Speaker 1: only are going to be dealing with two more years

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Speaker 1: of Trump and maybe want to seek distance. And of course,

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Speaker 1: then you look at that base vote and the devotion

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Speaker 1: to Donald Trump that I showed you where essentially to

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Speaker 1: love Donald Trump is to approve of his job. And

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Speaker 1: they're the most important chunk of Republican primary voters. So

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Speaker 1: even though a majority of this country has a lot

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Speaker 1: more preference to generic Republican ideas versus generic Democratic ideas

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Speaker 1: versus Donald Trump, twenty. Right now, you can see that

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Speaker 1: the voters view the generic ballot question not as a

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Speaker 1: discussion between which party do you like better, the Democrats

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Speaker 1: or the Republicans. That is not the question, what Jude.

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Speaker 1: The reason the Democrats have a large eight point lead

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Speaker 1: is that the question that voters are deciding between is

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Speaker 1: do you want Donald Trump? Do you want there to

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Speaker 1: be a check on Donald Trump? And right now there

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Speaker 1: is a huge desire for a check on Donald Trump.

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Speaker 1: There's a reason results matter more than promises, just like

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Speaker 1: there's a reason Morgan and Morgan is America's largest injury

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Speaker 1: law firm. For the last thirty five years, they've recovered

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Speaker 1: twenty five billion dollars for more than half a million clients.

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Speaker 1: It includes cases where insurance companies offered next to nothing,

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Speaker 1: just hoping to get away with paying as little as possible.

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Speaker 1: Morgan and Morgan fought back ended up winning millions. In fact,

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Speaker 1: in Pennsylvania, one client was awarded twenty six million dollars,

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Speaker 1: which was a staggering forty times the amount that the

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Speaker 1: insurance company originally offered. That original offer six hundred and

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Speaker 1: fifty thousand dollars twenty six million, six hundred and fifty thousand dollars.

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Speaker 1: So with more than one thousand lawyers across the country,

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Speaker 1: they know how to deliver for everyday people. If you're injured,

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Speaker 1: you need a lawyer, you need somebody to get your back.

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Speaker 1: Check out for the People dot com, Slash podcast or

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Speaker 1: Dow Pound Law Pound five two nine, law on your

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Speaker 1: cell phone. And remember all law firms are not the same.

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Speaker 1: So check out Morgan and Morgan. Their fee is free

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Speaker 1: unless they win. Here's something that was fascinating that surprises me.

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Speaker 1: The democracy issue didn't really work very well in twenty

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Speaker 1: didn't work very well in twenty two. I know there's

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Speaker 1: a whole bunch of Biden people that want to spin

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Speaker 1: that it did. That was not why they won in

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Speaker 1: twenty and in twenty twenty two. It is hard to

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Speaker 1: see that they won that way. It was a disastrous

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Speaker 1: democratic excuse me, Republican nominees that allowed Democrats do not

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Speaker 1: do as poorly as they ended up could have done

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Speaker 1: in a normal environment. Kamala Harris Quo closed with the

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Speaker 1: democracy question, and yet the swing voters weren't moved by

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Speaker 1: the democracy question because in their minds, they weren't electing

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Speaker 1: a different Donald Trump for Trump two point zero. In

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Speaker 1: their mind, they were electing a continuation of Trump one

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Speaker 1: point zero. But Trump two point zero is not popular

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Speaker 1: and the single Listen to this. I'm going to read

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Speaker 1: you the full question. When it comes to deciding your

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Speaker 1: vote for Congress next year, Please tell me if each

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Speaker 1: of the following is the single most important issue in

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Speaker 1: deciding how you will vote, A very important issue, or

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Speaker 1: only somewhat important. The single most important issue to hit

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Speaker 1: was protecting constitutional rights. Number two was protecting democracy. Number

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Speaker 1: three was cost of living and so that okay, healthcare

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Speaker 1: was number four at ten. I'm trying really hard to

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Speaker 1: find an issue that benefits Donald Trump. Okay. Number four

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Speaker 1: was healthcare premiums. Four five was dealing with the political

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Speaker 1: violence in America. Okay, maybe that's possible. That's a possible

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Speaker 1: net to Trump. It's possible voters on both sides of

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Speaker 1: the I'll see the other party at fault there. Immigration

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Speaker 1: and border security is also down there. Sort of healthcare,

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Speaker 1: political violence, immigration and border security all sat around the

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Speaker 1: same when you did the single most important. What's interesting

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Speaker 1: is that in twenty eighteen, the top two issues on

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Speaker 1: the single most important were healthcare and immigration. Here the

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Speaker 1: top two issues are protecting constitutional rights and protecting democracy,

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Speaker 1: which one might argue is the same thing. So do

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Speaker 1: you end up combining those numbers, so essentially have half

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Speaker 1: of respondents in some form or another, picking some form

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Speaker 1: of the structure of the democracy that really irritates them.

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Speaker 1: So now when you see that that is the number

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Speaker 1: one and number two issue, I've given you the fact

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Speaker 1: that the Democratic Party is more unpopular than Donald Trump

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Speaker 1: and more unpopular than the Republican Party, and yet Democrats

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Speaker 1: are winning generic ballot by eight points. Folks don't like

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Speaker 1: how Donald Trump is running roughshot over the presidency. Let

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Speaker 1: me give you a few more questions to give you

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Speaker 1: a little bit more, a little bit more issues on this. So,

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Speaker 1: for instance, they did a great question here they said,

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Speaker 1: thinking about President Trump and his administration when it comes

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Speaker 1: to the following issues, is the Trump administration living up

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Speaker 1: to your expectations or has it fallen short? And they

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Speaker 1: tested six issues border security, foreign policy, changing business as

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Speaker 1: usual in Washington, the economy looking up for the middle class,

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Speaker 1: and inflation in the cost of living. A majority believe

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Speaker 1: that the Trump administration is so far one year from

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Speaker 1: the election, has so far fallen short. Fifty three percent

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Speaker 1: say they fallen short in foreign policy, fifty six percent

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Speaker 1: on changing business as usual in Washington, huge huge red

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Speaker 1: flag there. That's all those crypto deals and all this

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Speaker 1: sort of you know, pay to play issues. Sixty three

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Speaker 1: percent say he's fallen short in the economy. That is

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Speaker 1: a huge driver in here. People do not like this

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Speaker 1: economy and you can feel it in this poll. Sixty

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Speaker 1: five percent say he's falling short and looking out for

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Speaker 1: the middle classt Row rut Row, mister Trump, and sixty

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Speaker 1: six percent say that he's fallen short on inflation and

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Speaker 1: costs of living. Just one issue, do a majority believe

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Speaker 1: he has lived up to the expectations that they had

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Speaker 1: for his presidency. And I'm sure all of you can

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Speaker 1: guess the issue because I haven't said it yet. It

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Speaker 1: is border security and immigration. Fifty one percent say he's

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Speaker 1: lived up to expectations on that, and that, boy, does

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Speaker 1: I tell you a lot. And and to indicate how

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Speaker 1: much more trouble Trump and the Republicans are with the economy,

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Speaker 1: they did an issue tests between the two parties. Republicans

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Speaker 1: lead on border security by thirty one points. They lead

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Speaker 1: on dealing with crime by twenty two points. They lead

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Speaker 1: on dealing with immigration by eighteen points. On the economy,

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Speaker 1: in September of twenty twenty three, Republicans led by twenty

432
00:24:51,800 --> 00:24:55,120
Speaker 1: one points between the two parties, and now their lead

433
00:24:55,359 --> 00:25:00,360
Speaker 1: is one one point. This is the worst showing or

434
00:25:00,480 --> 00:25:04,320
Speaker 1: the Republicans on this issue the economy since you guessed

435
00:25:04,320 --> 00:25:07,879
Speaker 1: it twenty seventeen to twenty eighteen in the run up

436
00:25:08,119 --> 00:25:11,320
Speaker 1: to the first midterm of Donald Trump, so as you

437
00:25:11,359 --> 00:25:13,960
Speaker 1: could see. Oh more importantly, on the issue of protecting

438
00:25:14,000 --> 00:25:17,720
Speaker 1: constitutional rights eight point advantage for Democrats on this. On

439
00:25:17,760 --> 00:25:20,840
Speaker 1: the issue of protecting democracy eleven point advantage for Democrats

440
00:25:20,880 --> 00:25:23,480
Speaker 1: on this. We ask those same two questions in September

441
00:25:23,480 --> 00:25:26,240
Speaker 1: of twenty twenty three, Republicans had an eight point lead

442
00:25:26,280 --> 00:25:30,159
Speaker 1: on the protecting our constitutional rights issue and Republicans had

443
00:25:30,160 --> 00:25:32,880
Speaker 1: a one point lead on protecting democracy. Both of those

444
00:25:32,920 --> 00:25:35,520
Speaker 1: issues are moving towards the Democrats. Now, some of this

445
00:25:35,600 --> 00:25:38,639
Speaker 1: is natural. The party out of power is seen as

446
00:25:38,640 --> 00:25:41,840
Speaker 1: the one more likely to stand up for constitutional rights

447
00:25:41,840 --> 00:25:44,520
Speaker 1: than the party empower. Most people assume the party empower

448
00:25:44,560 --> 00:25:47,119
Speaker 1: is always looking for loophole or trying to erode rights.

449
00:25:47,600 --> 00:25:49,840
Speaker 1: Those that are upset feel as if the party out

450
00:25:49,880 --> 00:25:52,199
Speaker 1: of power is the one that actually cares about the Constitution.

451
00:25:52,560 --> 00:25:54,879
Speaker 1: And you could argue that we've seen this right, members

452
00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:57,119
Speaker 1: of Congress care more about the Constitution when they're in

453
00:25:57,160 --> 00:25:59,600
Speaker 1: the minority in either the House of the Senate than

454
00:25:59,640 --> 00:26:02,000
Speaker 1: they do when they're in the majority. How do we

455
00:26:02,080 --> 00:26:04,719
Speaker 1: know this? Just look at all the Republicans staying silent

456
00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:09,320
Speaker 1: on the unconstitutional way that Donald Trump is conducting his

457
00:26:09,440 --> 00:26:13,720
Speaker 1: war against Venezuela. Because that's what he's doing right now.

458
00:26:13,760 --> 00:26:17,720
Speaker 1: They have essentially declared war with Venezuela without going to Congress,

459
00:26:18,200 --> 00:26:21,240
Speaker 1: without getting you know, with now they claim it's not

460
00:26:21,280 --> 00:26:23,520
Speaker 1: even shouldn't even be subject to the War Powers Act.

461
00:26:24,760 --> 00:26:28,159
Speaker 1: The lack of interest among most of congressional Republicans in

462
00:26:28,240 --> 00:26:33,240
Speaker 1: protecting the Constitution on this issue, I think is what's happening.

463
00:26:33,280 --> 00:26:36,440
Speaker 1: It's not one issue here, it's a collection of it. Right,

464
00:26:36,480 --> 00:26:39,800
Speaker 1: they've they he keeps losing in court. So there's there's

465
00:26:39,880 --> 00:26:43,640
Speaker 1: usually a headline about once a week where the federal

466
00:26:43,640 --> 00:26:47,280
Speaker 1: courts say Trump violated the Constitution or the Trump administration

467
00:26:47,359 --> 00:26:50,560
Speaker 1: violated the Constitution. Maybe it's on National Guard troops, maybe

468
00:26:50,560 --> 00:26:52,480
Speaker 1: it's on what what what they've.

469
00:26:52,320 --> 00:26:53,040
Speaker 2: Been doing.

470
00:26:54,400 --> 00:26:57,920
Speaker 1: With tariffs. Right, But and he every it does seem

471
00:26:57,920 --> 00:27:01,400
Speaker 1: as if every week and these had these headlines. If

472
00:27:01,440 --> 00:27:03,840
Speaker 1: you look at this poll, and in some ways, do

473
00:27:03,560 --> 00:27:07,720
Speaker 1: I wish NBC News would do the Heart macin Turth

474
00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:10,399
Speaker 1: poll once a month. Yes, that was the pace with

475
00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:14,399
Speaker 1: which we did it back when when we were a

476
00:27:14,440 --> 00:27:17,480
Speaker 1: news organization that was a lot bigger and going a

477
00:27:17,480 --> 00:27:19,760
Speaker 1: lot big. Obviously, they're in a different all of the

478
00:27:19,840 --> 00:27:22,200
Speaker 1: legacy media companies are in a different place and don't

479
00:27:22,200 --> 00:27:26,000
Speaker 1: want to spend the money that they once did. But interestingly,

480
00:27:26,119 --> 00:27:29,520
Speaker 1: doing this poll, you know, having a six month gap,

481
00:27:29,560 --> 00:27:32,200
Speaker 1: you sort of you can see the bigger shifts, right,

482
00:27:32,480 --> 00:27:36,520
Speaker 1: They're brighter. It's not the slow erosion. You see the brighter.

483
00:27:37,280 --> 00:27:39,400
Speaker 1: You see the bright lines. And here's one more question.

484
00:27:39,440 --> 00:27:41,399
Speaker 1: If you're not sure, if you think I'm reading too

485
00:27:41,480 --> 00:27:45,400
Speaker 1: much into the issue of democracy and constitutional rights, let

486
00:27:45,440 --> 00:27:49,080
Speaker 1: me just show you this one last question. Compared to

487
00:27:49,119 --> 00:27:51,840
Speaker 1: past presidents, do you think Donald Trump has done more

488
00:27:51,880 --> 00:27:54,560
Speaker 1: to protect the US Constitution, done more to undermine the

489
00:27:54,640 --> 00:27:57,720
Speaker 1: US Constitution, or he's been no different than past presidents.

490
00:27:58,440 --> 00:28:01,800
Speaker 1: Thirty one percent said he's done more to remember that's

491
00:28:01,800 --> 00:28:05,360
Speaker 1: the super core base. Fifty two percent say he's done

492
00:28:05,359 --> 00:28:08,159
Speaker 1: more to undermine just sixteen percent say he's no different

493
00:28:08,160 --> 00:28:12,680
Speaker 1: than past precedents fifty two percent. Anytime you see a majority,

494
00:28:13,240 --> 00:28:16,159
Speaker 1: I've shown you how unpopular the Democratic Party is. To me.

495
00:28:16,240 --> 00:28:18,600
Speaker 1: Anytime I see numbers in fifty plus, it means a

496
00:28:18,640 --> 00:28:21,520
Speaker 1: majority of whatever that number is is what the independence

497
00:28:21,520 --> 00:28:25,320
Speaker 1: split is, and it means self described independence are uncomfortable

498
00:28:25,320 --> 00:28:30,399
Speaker 1: with this, and this, this is, this is I think,

499
00:28:30,760 --> 00:28:32,879
Speaker 1: so he's You've got an economy that isn't working for

500
00:28:32,880 --> 00:28:34,560
Speaker 1: a lot of people. Again, how do we know this?

501
00:28:34,640 --> 00:28:39,000
Speaker 1: Sixty one percent say they say their family's income is

502
00:28:39,200 --> 00:28:42,680
Speaker 1: falling behind when it comes to cost of living issues.

503
00:28:42,840 --> 00:28:45,560
Speaker 1: Only six percent say their incomes going up faster. Only

504
00:28:45,600 --> 00:28:48,360
Speaker 1: thirty one percent said saying they're breaking even So you

505
00:28:48,440 --> 00:28:51,400
Speaker 1: have nearly two thirds of the country say they're falling behind.

506
00:28:51,520 --> 00:28:54,280
Speaker 1: You've got a majority of the country saying the president's

507
00:28:54,320 --> 00:28:59,880
Speaker 1: undermining the constitution. It's you can now see the pick

508
00:29:00,000 --> 00:29:04,920
Speaker 1: sure where an unpopular opposition party can then be successful

509
00:29:04,920 --> 00:29:09,680
Speaker 1: in the midterms because we continue the same cycle we've

510
00:29:09,680 --> 00:29:14,080
Speaker 1: been in arguably since the second Obama term, which is

511
00:29:14,480 --> 00:29:18,080
Speaker 1: we continue to vote out what we don't like, and

512
00:29:18,160 --> 00:29:22,880
Speaker 1: we vote in unknowns. We're willing to try something different.

513
00:29:23,040 --> 00:29:25,920
Speaker 1: If something's being pitched differently, we're sometimes willing to try

514
00:29:25,960 --> 00:29:28,040
Speaker 1: the same thing again, but this time with a different face.

515
00:29:28,080 --> 00:29:30,320
Speaker 1: So instead of Speaker Pelosi, this time it may be

516
00:29:30,320 --> 00:29:34,040
Speaker 1: Speaker Jeffreys. Maybe that'll change things, right, But we continue

517
00:29:34,120 --> 00:29:37,520
Speaker 1: to vote out. We are not voting in anything. We

518
00:29:37,560 --> 00:29:41,120
Speaker 1: are not voting in ideas. We are throwing out is

519
00:29:41,440 --> 00:29:43,560
Speaker 1: That is what twenty sixteen was about. It was what

520
00:29:43,600 --> 00:29:46,200
Speaker 1: twenty fourteen was about, what twenty sixteen was about, what

521
00:29:46,240 --> 00:29:48,800
Speaker 1: twenty eighteen was about, what twenty twenty was about, what

522
00:29:48,840 --> 00:29:52,520
Speaker 1: twenty twenty two was about, what twenty twenty four was about. Yes,

523
00:29:52,600 --> 00:29:55,600
Speaker 1: I'm repeating all of those years to make this point

524
00:29:55,640 --> 00:29:59,840
Speaker 1: and drive it home, and here we go again. Everything

525
00:30:00,160 --> 00:30:04,200
Speaker 1: being set up here. Now, this doesn't mean Democratic success

526
00:30:04,200 --> 00:30:06,840
Speaker 1: in the midterms is automatically going to mean they should

527
00:30:06,880 --> 00:30:08,880
Speaker 1: be the favorite going into the general election in twenty

528
00:30:08,880 --> 00:30:15,000
Speaker 1: twenty eight. But what you see developing here is is

529
00:30:15,080 --> 00:30:17,520
Speaker 1: you have people don't like Trump's presidency. They don't like

530
00:30:17,520 --> 00:30:20,520
Speaker 1: how he's conducting himself. That is a huge issue that

531
00:30:20,640 --> 00:30:23,240
Speaker 1: is accruing to the benefit of the Democrats, even though

532
00:30:23,400 --> 00:30:27,840
Speaker 1: they don't necessarily have much confidence in the Democrats. They

533
00:30:27,880 --> 00:30:30,000
Speaker 1: prefer the Republicans and a lot of law and order

534
00:30:30,040 --> 00:30:35,880
Speaker 1: issue right as I was just detailing. So the challenge,

535
00:30:35,880 --> 00:30:38,200
Speaker 1: So if you're a presidential candidate and you're reading this poll,

536
00:30:38,280 --> 00:30:39,840
Speaker 1: your challenge is you're going to have to come up

537
00:30:39,880 --> 00:30:43,320
Speaker 1: with a positive vision. You can run against Trump and

538
00:30:43,360 --> 00:30:46,240
Speaker 1: be negative and succeed in a midterm. You can do

539
00:30:46,320 --> 00:30:49,120
Speaker 1: it and succeed in a California referendum in order to

540
00:30:49,160 --> 00:30:53,240
Speaker 1: get voter permission to redraw maps, change the constitution and

541
00:30:53,280 --> 00:30:55,960
Speaker 1: get them to do that. But it's why I don't

542
00:30:55,960 --> 00:30:58,720
Speaker 1: say this automatically translates to Gavenus and being the front

543
00:30:58,760 --> 00:31:02,280
Speaker 1: runner to be the next president, because we are going

544
00:31:02,360 --> 00:31:06,040
Speaker 1: to want you know, I think any particularly a Democratic nominee,

545
00:31:06,120 --> 00:31:09,000
Speaker 1: is going to have to demonstrate that they want to

546
00:31:09,040 --> 00:31:12,400
Speaker 1: try something different, that they're not going to be a

547
00:31:12,560 --> 00:31:16,120
Speaker 1: stereotype Democrat that the voter seems to have in mind.

548
00:31:16,400 --> 00:31:18,640
Speaker 1: Now it's up to you, presidential candidate x y or

549
00:31:18,760 --> 00:31:22,400
Speaker 1: z or presidential candidate Josha Perro and Shpeer Wes Moore,

550
00:31:22,560 --> 00:31:25,320
Speaker 1: whoever else is going to jump into this thing. You're

551
00:31:25,320 --> 00:31:27,720
Speaker 1: going to have to find out and this is what's

552
00:31:27,720 --> 00:31:29,880
Speaker 1: going to make the rich tile conversation I think so

553
00:31:30,120 --> 00:31:33,280
Speaker 1: fruitful here and really sort of help you take what

554
00:31:33,320 --> 00:31:35,400
Speaker 1: I just told you in the hard numbers here and

555
00:31:35,440 --> 00:31:38,760
Speaker 1: the quantitative research and be able to understand sort of

556
00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:44,000
Speaker 1: why these swing voters are behaving this way, and ultimately,

557
00:31:44,040 --> 00:31:46,040
Speaker 1: the best politicians know, you've got to speak to the

558
00:31:46,040 --> 00:31:49,800
Speaker 1: swing voters first. Yes, you know, in some ways, the

559
00:31:49,840 --> 00:31:53,280
Speaker 1: base is going to be easy to fire up. Donald

560
00:31:53,280 --> 00:31:55,480
Speaker 1: Trump is always taking the easy way out. So he

561
00:31:55,640 --> 00:31:58,600
Speaker 1: just governs to the base, caters to the base, because

562
00:31:58,640 --> 00:32:02,200
Speaker 1: it keeps a high floor, It protects him politically, right,

563
00:32:02,400 --> 00:32:05,360
Speaker 1: it keeps him just strong enough to avoid getting thrown

564
00:32:05,400 --> 00:32:07,760
Speaker 1: out of office, to avoid getting thrown out of and

565
00:32:08,760 --> 00:32:11,960
Speaker 1: ultimately because on cultural issues, the Democratic Party clearly is

566
00:32:12,040 --> 00:32:13,840
Speaker 1: just so out of sync with where the country is.

567
00:32:14,240 --> 00:32:16,959
Speaker 1: It's it's clear to me that between that and I

568
00:32:17,000 --> 00:32:20,280
Speaker 1: think some angry independence who blamed the Democrats for the

569
00:32:20,360 --> 00:32:25,200
Speaker 1: second Trump term, all right, you know, I certainly think

570
00:32:25,240 --> 00:32:29,360
Speaker 1: that that Joe Biden. You know, I think one of

571
00:32:29,440 --> 00:32:32,480
Speaker 1: the worst comments Gavin Newsom made recently that I think

572
00:32:32,560 --> 00:32:33,920
Speaker 1: is going to come back to bide him is when

573
00:32:34,000 --> 00:32:37,000
Speaker 1: he said that the Biden presidency was terrific, you cannot

574
00:32:37,040 --> 00:32:38,920
Speaker 1: You're not going to win swing voters making the case

575
00:32:38,960 --> 00:32:42,960
Speaker 1: that Biden's presidency was terrific. It may age well, but

576
00:32:43,040 --> 00:32:45,240
Speaker 1: it's going to age well the way Harry Truman's presidency

577
00:32:45,240 --> 00:32:49,040
Speaker 1: aged well. It took thirty years before people decided he

578
00:32:49,160 --> 00:32:53,160
Speaker 1: had he had a good presidency. It did not happen

579
00:32:53,400 --> 00:32:56,760
Speaker 1: in two, four or six years. Adelaie Stevenson wasn't running

580
00:32:56,800 --> 00:32:59,040
Speaker 1: on the good old days of Harry Truman. And if

581
00:32:59,040 --> 00:33:01,120
Speaker 1: he did, he was going to lose anyway to an

582
00:33:01,120 --> 00:33:05,400
Speaker 1: American war hero named Generalizahaower. So I would just, you know,

583
00:33:05,400 --> 00:33:08,720
Speaker 1: And so when he said that, you know, I don't

584
00:33:08,760 --> 00:33:11,520
Speaker 1: think Gavinusom understands that there's a whole bunch of middle

585
00:33:11,520 --> 00:33:14,120
Speaker 1: of the road voters who simply wanted one thing from

586
00:33:14,200 --> 00:33:17,520
Speaker 1: Joe Biden's presidency to move the country in a direction

587
00:33:17,600 --> 00:33:20,480
Speaker 1: so they didn't go back to Donald Trump. And the

588
00:33:20,600 --> 00:33:24,960
Speaker 1: fact that that Donald Trump is back, there's always going

589
00:33:25,000 --> 00:33:26,600
Speaker 1: to be a chunk of voters that say it's Joe

590
00:33:26,640 --> 00:33:30,360
Speaker 1: Biden's fault. His presidency wasn't good enough, he didn't leave

591
00:33:30,440 --> 00:33:33,120
Speaker 1: soon enough. Whatever it is, there's gonna be different subjective

592
00:33:33,160 --> 00:33:36,400
Speaker 1: reasons for it, but ultimately, whether it's his policies, whether

593
00:33:36,440 --> 00:33:39,280
Speaker 1: it was the way he messaged or didn't message, get it,

594
00:33:39,360 --> 00:33:41,720
Speaker 1: staying in the race too long, all of those things right,

595
00:33:42,640 --> 00:33:44,880
Speaker 1: And that's why I think it's it is. I don't

596
00:33:44,960 --> 00:33:46,920
Speaker 1: know if being pro Joe Biden is good in a

597
00:33:46,960 --> 00:33:51,000
Speaker 1: Democratic primary either for what it's worth. So I don't

598
00:33:51,400 --> 00:33:53,600
Speaker 1: I admire the loyalty if he just did it for

599
00:33:53,640 --> 00:33:58,280
Speaker 1: loyalty purposes. But this is not where the voters are.

600
00:33:59,000 --> 00:34:00,720
Speaker 1: This is not where the voters are at all. In fact,

601
00:34:01,000 --> 00:34:04,800
Speaker 1: I think you can thank Joe Biden, Chuck Schumer, Nakim Jeffries,

602
00:34:04,840 --> 00:34:08,080
Speaker 1: the three of them together for the Democrats giant and

603
00:34:08,080 --> 00:34:12,040
Speaker 1: that negative problem. No, by the way, none of these

604
00:34:12,120 --> 00:34:14,320
Speaker 1: numbers are good for Jeffries and Schumer inside the Democratic

605
00:34:14,320 --> 00:34:17,160
Speaker 1: Party because even though you have a good number of

606
00:34:17,200 --> 00:34:21,360
Speaker 1: the generic ballot for Democrats, it shows Democrats. The winning

607
00:34:21,400 --> 00:34:24,520
Speaker 1: Democrats are going to be running against Washington, running against

608
00:34:24,520 --> 00:34:27,880
Speaker 1: the old leadership of the Democratic Party. And yes, Jakim Jeffries,

609
00:34:27,920 --> 00:34:30,480
Speaker 1: you're going to be considered part of the establishment, not

610
00:34:30,560 --> 00:34:32,560
Speaker 1: part of the new wave of leaders not unless you

611
00:34:32,640 --> 00:34:34,440
Speaker 1: figure out a way to break out of this, and

612
00:34:34,520 --> 00:34:36,880
Speaker 1: I don't know if you can. I think it's hard.

613
00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:41,319
Speaker 1: I think it's difficult, and certainly it seems as if

614
00:34:41,320 --> 00:34:46,560
Speaker 1: you've been a bit risk averse in trying to establish

615
00:34:46,560 --> 00:34:51,440
Speaker 1: yourself as different from Schumer. But there's no doubt if

616
00:34:52,080 --> 00:34:54,520
Speaker 1: Jeffries is going to have a chance at being seeing

617
00:34:54,560 --> 00:34:56,920
Speaker 1: as a new leader of the party, he's got to

618
00:34:56,920 --> 00:34:59,920
Speaker 1: figure out how to separate himself from Schumer, or Schumer

619
00:35:00,120 --> 00:35:02,120
Speaker 1: going to have at some point do the party a

620
00:35:02,160 --> 00:35:04,839
Speaker 1: favor and indicate that you know, he's not he doesn't

621
00:35:04,840 --> 00:35:07,600
Speaker 1: want to coach next year, to put this in coaching terms,

622
00:35:07,800 --> 00:35:10,680
Speaker 1: since that's the the coin of the realm these days.

623
00:35:11,800 --> 00:35:17,040
Speaker 1: So with that, there's to me, there's where America is at,

624
00:35:17,200 --> 00:35:19,120
Speaker 1: what they think of the two parties, what they think

625
00:35:19,160 --> 00:35:21,960
Speaker 1: of this presidency. Where we're at one year from the election,

626
00:35:21,960 --> 00:35:25,040
Speaker 1: second election of Donald Trump, one year in with our

627
00:35:25,080 --> 00:35:27,919
Speaker 1: off off year elections coming Tuesday, don't forget the election

628
00:35:28,000 --> 00:35:30,920
Speaker 1: night live stream on YouTube on x wherever you find me,

629
00:35:31,040 --> 00:35:34,280
Speaker 1: wherever you find Decision s HQ, wherever you find solicit

630
00:35:34,360 --> 00:35:37,040
Speaker 1: we will be in all of those places simultaneously. It's

631
00:35:37,040 --> 00:35:40,840
Speaker 1: an election live stream for true political professionals and political junkies.

632
00:35:41,560 --> 00:35:44,719
Speaker 1: This is where it's happening. Go check it out. In fact,

633
00:35:44,719 --> 00:35:48,200
Speaker 1: this poll is indicated more people watch YouTube than legacy television.

634
00:35:48,239 --> 00:35:52,720
Speaker 1: Now just think of that's according to an NBC News poll,

635
00:35:53,760 --> 00:35:57,719
Speaker 1: their own numbers. NBC is indicating more people are will

636
00:35:57,840 --> 00:36:00,600
Speaker 1: watch YouTube before they watch legacy TV.

637
00:36:01,160 --> 00:36:01,839
Speaker 2: So with that, we'll.

638
00:36:01,760 --> 00:36:03,279
Speaker 1: Sneak in a break for those of you listening the

639
00:36:03,280 --> 00:36:07,680
Speaker 1: whole thing. Fascinating conversation with rich taw some focus group

640
00:36:07,719 --> 00:36:11,319
Speaker 1: research of Biden to Trump voters. What do they think

641
00:36:11,320 --> 00:36:14,239
Speaker 1: of Donald Trump one year out, particularly in the swing

642
00:36:14,239 --> 00:36:24,120
Speaker 1: state of Pennsylvania. Well, joining me now, somebody I've known

643
00:36:24,719 --> 00:36:26,840
Speaker 1: for a couple of decades, rich Tawe. He is a

644
00:36:28,040 --> 00:36:31,520
Speaker 1: message guru, if you will, a market research tester. Makes

645
00:36:31,520 --> 00:36:36,120
Speaker 1: his living helping advocacy groups and trade associations test various

646
00:36:36,160 --> 00:36:44,279
Speaker 1: messages to try to appeal to certain constituencies where I

647
00:36:44,360 --> 00:36:46,359
Speaker 1: consume a lot of his work is for something called

648
00:36:46,360 --> 00:36:49,360
Speaker 1: the Swing Voter Project. It's something he does in conjunction

649
00:36:49,440 --> 00:36:52,560
Speaker 1: with Axios. If you are a subscriber to those Axios

650
00:36:52,560 --> 00:36:57,480
Speaker 1: newsletters and you've seen analysis of the Biden Trump voter

651
00:36:57,719 --> 00:37:00,239
Speaker 1: or the Obama Trump voter or the Obama I'm a

652
00:37:00,239 --> 00:37:05,000
Speaker 1: Trump Biden Trump voter. It's all thanks to Rich here,

653
00:37:05,040 --> 00:37:07,360
Speaker 1: and he goes state by state, sessed with him. I

654
00:37:07,480 --> 00:37:11,440
Speaker 1: watch she has a YouTube channel, it's there. He puts

655
00:37:11,480 --> 00:37:15,680
Speaker 1: up highlights of his monthly swing voter groups that he does.

656
00:37:15,760 --> 00:37:17,879
Speaker 1: There was one in Michigan that I spent a lot

657
00:37:17,880 --> 00:37:25,360
Speaker 1: of time. If you guys will recall those sophisticated listeners

658
00:37:25,400 --> 00:37:29,520
Speaker 1: of my podcast have already heard me taut Rich's focus

659
00:37:29,520 --> 00:37:32,480
Speaker 1: groups of Michigan. He's got some new ones in Pennsylvania.

660
00:37:32,880 --> 00:37:38,200
Speaker 1: But he's probably arguably talked to more Biden Trump voters

661
00:37:38,440 --> 00:37:43,560
Speaker 1: than anybody in America and probably has his pulse, his

662
00:37:43,600 --> 00:37:45,960
Speaker 1: finger on the pulse of these voters as well as anybody.

663
00:37:46,239 --> 00:37:46,439
Speaker 2: Rich.

664
00:37:46,480 --> 00:37:50,080
Speaker 1: Howd I do promoting you on this one? And you

665
00:37:50,120 --> 00:37:51,839
Speaker 1: know what?

666
00:37:51,920 --> 00:37:55,000
Speaker 2: Am I leaving out ten out of ten? Perfect job?

667
00:37:55,200 --> 00:37:57,200
Speaker 2: Thank you. It's an honor to be with you, Chuck.

668
00:37:57,239 --> 00:37:58,239
Speaker 2: I really appreciate it.

669
00:37:58,400 --> 00:38:01,879
Speaker 1: And you're also doing a Decider project which is very similar. Again,

670
00:38:02,040 --> 00:38:05,239
Speaker 1: these are it's all qualitative research. It's focus groups, it's

671
00:38:05,239 --> 00:38:08,680
Speaker 1: not polling. And I want to get into sort of

672
00:38:08,840 --> 00:38:12,640
Speaker 1: those the differences in those techniques and the ability now

673
00:38:12,680 --> 00:38:15,400
Speaker 1: that you can focus we have larger and larger focus groups.

674
00:38:15,400 --> 00:38:18,320
Speaker 1: At what point does it become quantitative instead of qualitative?

675
00:38:18,360 --> 00:38:23,480
Speaker 1: We can talk about that, but you really are you

676
00:38:23,640 --> 00:38:27,680
Speaker 1: really are a big You feel like you get a

677
00:38:27,680 --> 00:38:29,040
Speaker 1: lot out of focus groups, don't you?

678
00:38:29,719 --> 00:38:30,040
Speaker 2: I do.

679
00:38:30,719 --> 00:38:32,960
Speaker 3: And the reason for that is a lot of people

680
00:38:33,000 --> 00:38:35,799
Speaker 3: in research like to count heads. I like to see

681
00:38:35,800 --> 00:38:39,760
Speaker 3: what's inside people's heads. And that's the distinction between quant

682
00:38:39,800 --> 00:38:42,319
Speaker 3: and qual For me is I want to understand why

683
00:38:42,360 --> 00:38:45,280
Speaker 3: people believe what they believe what they know, as opposed

684
00:38:45,280 --> 00:38:47,560
Speaker 3: to guessing what they know as supposed to me only saying, well,

685
00:38:47,600 --> 00:38:50,040
Speaker 3: seventy one percent believe this, twenty nine percent believe that.

686
00:38:50,920 --> 00:38:53,080
Speaker 1: No, it's it's I always say, the single most important

687
00:38:53,120 --> 00:38:55,120
Speaker 1: question I try to answer all the time in political

688
00:38:55,160 --> 00:38:57,160
Speaker 1: analysis is the why? Right?

689
00:38:57,600 --> 00:38:58,360
Speaker 2: Why? Why?

690
00:38:58,480 --> 00:39:01,319
Speaker 1: Is at the core it's the single most important question

691
00:39:01,400 --> 00:39:06,440
Speaker 1: I think that we try to answer in the political space. Well,

692
00:39:06,520 --> 00:39:09,000
Speaker 1: let's just get Look, you started this. You've gone ten

693
00:39:09,080 --> 00:39:12,680
Speaker 1: years now essentially doing these I feel like you first

694
00:39:12,680 --> 00:39:17,120
Speaker 1: started doing the Obama Trump voter focus groups back in

695
00:39:17,200 --> 00:39:19,000
Speaker 1: the first Trump term.

696
00:39:19,440 --> 00:39:19,799
Speaker 2: I did.

697
00:39:19,920 --> 00:39:22,440
Speaker 1: So you're getting close to ten years of data.

698
00:39:22,200 --> 00:39:26,239
Speaker 3: Now, aren't you not quite. I'm getting closing in after

699
00:39:26,440 --> 00:39:30,319
Speaker 3: March of twenty nineteen. So again because the first month

700
00:39:30,360 --> 00:39:33,640
Speaker 3: we did it in person in Appleton, Wisconsin. In fact,

701
00:39:33,680 --> 00:39:36,240
Speaker 3: for the first thirteen months from March of twenty nineteen

702
00:39:36,360 --> 00:39:38,360
Speaker 3: through March of twenty twenty, we did them in person.

703
00:39:38,400 --> 00:39:41,000
Speaker 3: I traveled between the East Coast and the Midwest month

704
00:39:41,040 --> 00:39:43,680
Speaker 3: after month, and the pandemic set in. We didn't miss

705
00:39:43,680 --> 00:39:45,880
Speaker 3: a month. We just kept going and did them online

706
00:39:46,200 --> 00:39:48,680
Speaker 3: and became a little bit easier to recruit because people

707
00:39:48,680 --> 00:39:50,960
Speaker 3: didn't have to physically go to a location and we

708
00:39:50,960 --> 00:39:53,840
Speaker 3: could get people from across an entire state as opposed

709
00:39:53,880 --> 00:39:56,160
Speaker 3: to merely one town or one region in a state.

710
00:39:56,680 --> 00:40:01,040
Speaker 3: So the pandemic actually tragic for so many people, actually

711
00:40:01,040 --> 00:40:03,440
Speaker 3: for us worked out well for this particular project.

712
00:40:03,719 --> 00:40:05,840
Speaker 1: Has this totally before we get into sort of the

713
00:40:06,680 --> 00:40:09,440
Speaker 1: substance of what you've been finding over the last few months,

714
00:40:12,320 --> 00:40:15,640
Speaker 1: as the entire focus group world change to do in person,

715
00:40:15,719 --> 00:40:17,520
Speaker 1: focus groups matter anymore.

716
00:40:18,320 --> 00:40:20,880
Speaker 3: So I think they matter a lot of the vendors

717
00:40:20,960 --> 00:40:25,279
Speaker 3: who had facilities close them permanently because people were more

718
00:40:25,320 --> 00:40:26,680
Speaker 3: than willing to do them online.

719
00:40:26,680 --> 00:40:27,840
Speaker 2: So it's a lot of change in.

720
00:40:27,800 --> 00:40:30,480
Speaker 1: That particular to do it online right instead of you know,

721
00:40:30,800 --> 00:40:32,920
Speaker 1: hanging out for a couple hours, even though you're getting

722
00:40:32,920 --> 00:40:36,640
Speaker 1: paid at some office park, you know, in the suburbs.

723
00:40:37,080 --> 00:40:37,600
Speaker 2: Exactly.

724
00:40:37,719 --> 00:40:42,239
Speaker 3: Yeah, from a respondent perspective, it definitely was less work

725
00:40:42,280 --> 00:40:44,160
Speaker 3: for them, although I should say it's more work for

726
00:40:44,280 --> 00:40:47,600
Speaker 3: my team because we have to actually, if we want

727
00:40:47,600 --> 00:40:51,080
Speaker 3: to do it right, pre qualify people not just in

728
00:40:51,160 --> 00:40:55,160
Speaker 3: terms of their demographics and psychographics, but also their Internet connectivity.

729
00:40:55,200 --> 00:40:57,840
Speaker 3: You know, literally do they have enough megabits to be

730
00:40:57,920 --> 00:40:59,520
Speaker 3: on a zoom call for an hour and a half

731
00:40:59,560 --> 00:41:02,120
Speaker 3: without easing up over and over again. So we actually

732
00:41:02,200 --> 00:41:05,800
Speaker 3: literally test every person with a tech check well before.

733
00:41:05,840 --> 00:41:07,200
Speaker 3: You just have to show up and sit in a

734
00:41:07,520 --> 00:41:10,400
Speaker 3: seat and you eat a turkey sandwich with some potato chips.

735
00:41:10,560 --> 00:41:13,080
Speaker 3: So it's a very different type of experience from my team.

736
00:41:13,400 --> 00:41:15,319
Speaker 3: But from the response perspective, you know they're in a

737
00:41:15,320 --> 00:41:17,760
Speaker 3: comfortable spot. I have to worry about things like dogs

738
00:41:17,760 --> 00:41:22,000
Speaker 3: barking and kids bothering people during the focus group, and

739
00:41:22,360 --> 00:41:24,719
Speaker 3: I enjoy the experience more in person, and I can

740
00:41:24,760 --> 00:41:27,080
Speaker 3: moderate a larger group in person. I can do ten

741
00:41:27,160 --> 00:41:29,480
Speaker 3: or twelve people in person, but ten or twelve boxes

742
00:41:29,520 --> 00:41:32,719
Speaker 3: on a screen and zoom is impossible. My max is

743
00:41:32,760 --> 00:41:33,200
Speaker 3: like seven.

744
00:41:34,040 --> 00:41:37,920
Speaker 1: Well, look, I've conducted focus groups a few times myself.

745
00:41:38,160 --> 00:41:41,399
Speaker 1: I've observed quite a few of them in person and

746
00:41:42,400 --> 00:41:47,719
Speaker 1: virtually and count me as a skeptic of the in

747
00:41:47,760 --> 00:41:50,400
Speaker 1: person focus group. And here's why, Rich, And I'm curious

748
00:41:50,400 --> 00:41:52,960
Speaker 1: how you factor this in. I think it's a lot

749
00:41:53,000 --> 00:41:55,440
Speaker 1: easier for one person to hijack and in person focus

750
00:41:55,440 --> 00:41:58,319
Speaker 1: group than it is a virtual focus group. And that's

751
00:41:58,719 --> 00:42:01,680
Speaker 1: that's always the danger when you're doing this qualitative research,

752
00:42:01,760 --> 00:42:02,040
Speaker 1: is it not.

753
00:42:03,160 --> 00:42:05,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, well, the hijacking thing, you have to be super

754
00:42:05,120 --> 00:42:07,239
Speaker 3: careful about that. So I'll give you away one of

755
00:42:07,239 --> 00:42:09,080
Speaker 3: my big secrets, Chuck. I don't think I've ever said

756
00:42:09,120 --> 00:42:12,719
Speaker 3: this publicly before. I have been trying to figure out

757
00:42:12,719 --> 00:42:14,520
Speaker 3: I had been trying to figure out for years, how

758
00:42:14,520 --> 00:42:17,719
Speaker 3: do you get the loudmouth person not to get recruited

759
00:42:17,719 --> 00:42:21,480
Speaker 3: into the focus group. And I didn't find a perfect solution,

760
00:42:21,560 --> 00:42:24,640
Speaker 3: but I found something that I think anecdotally has worked,

761
00:42:24,800 --> 00:42:27,600
Speaker 3: which is we have a screening question that says, do

762
00:42:27,719 --> 00:42:31,080
Speaker 3: you have any bumper stickers on your car that convey

763
00:42:31,160 --> 00:42:34,839
Speaker 3: a political message? The idea being if you want the

764
00:42:35,000 --> 00:42:38,239
Speaker 3: entire world to know what you believe politically so much

765
00:42:38,280 --> 00:42:40,920
Speaker 3: so you stuck it on the back bumper of your car.

766
00:42:41,160 --> 00:42:43,200
Speaker 3: I probably don't want you in my focus group.

767
00:42:43,440 --> 00:42:45,440
Speaker 1: Interesting, so use that as an eliminator.

768
00:42:45,719 --> 00:42:49,640
Speaker 2: I used that as eliminating. Absolutely, absolute love it. I

769
00:42:49,640 --> 00:42:49,960
Speaker 2: love it.

770
00:42:50,040 --> 00:42:53,560
Speaker 1: What a great eliminator question. Yeah, so again it's not perfect.

771
00:42:53,600 --> 00:42:55,799
Speaker 1: But the other thing is what's the quality of the

772
00:42:55,840 --> 00:42:58,640
Speaker 1: moderating right? If you're a decent moderator, you know how

773
00:42:58,680 --> 00:43:01,120
Speaker 1: to put the loudmouth person who happens to show up

774
00:43:02,120 --> 00:43:08,480
Speaker 1: back in their corner, carefully, respectfully, repeatedly if necessary. And

775
00:43:08,560 --> 00:43:09,480
Speaker 1: I just find it's.

776
00:43:10,080 --> 00:43:13,000
Speaker 3: It takes practice, there are techniques for doing it, and

777
00:43:13,040 --> 00:43:15,040
Speaker 3: if you're a crummy moderator, you can't do it, and

778
00:43:15,080 --> 00:43:17,320
Speaker 3: the person dominates the conversation and that's.

779
00:43:17,120 --> 00:43:19,120
Speaker 1: No, and then you've ruined the focus grip. I ruined

780
00:43:19,120 --> 00:43:23,200
Speaker 1: the fo I've seen that. Look, it's why, frankly, a

781
00:43:23,239 --> 00:43:27,440
Speaker 1: professional like yourself, Peter I, you know what, I the

782
00:43:27,480 --> 00:43:29,879
Speaker 1: person I observe the most over the years was Peter Hart.

783
00:43:29,880 --> 00:43:35,279
Speaker 1: Other than yourself, I I there's there's another prominent person

784
00:43:35,280 --> 00:43:36,760
Speaker 1: out there who I think is a bit too leading

785
00:43:36,760 --> 00:43:40,359
Speaker 1: in his focus group moderating at times, mister Luncen, I

786
00:43:40,360 --> 00:43:42,880
Speaker 1: I'm very friendly with him. You are too. We like Frank.

787
00:43:43,200 --> 00:43:46,359
Speaker 1: He is in some ways made focus groups great, right,

788
00:43:46,480 --> 00:43:50,239
Speaker 1: made more people aware of them sometimes, I think, and

789
00:43:50,440 --> 00:43:55,080
Speaker 1: and I actually wonder can you be an effective focus

790
00:43:55,120 --> 00:43:58,240
Speaker 1: group moderator if people know who you are before it starts.

791
00:43:59,680 --> 00:44:02,480
Speaker 3: So I don't want to disparage Frank. I've done him

792
00:44:02,520 --> 00:44:03,840
Speaker 3: again thirty plus years.

793
00:44:04,040 --> 00:44:06,600
Speaker 1: No, and he was arguably a pioneer in helping to

794
00:44:06,680 --> 00:44:10,040
Speaker 1: make this a mainstream idea to study political.

795
00:44:09,560 --> 00:44:12,800
Speaker 3: Habits and dial testing which he popularized, which is a

796
00:44:12,880 --> 00:44:14,959
Speaker 3: kind of key thing I do in my message testing work,

797
00:44:15,760 --> 00:44:19,560
Speaker 3: very important. I think one reason why I have generally

798
00:44:19,600 --> 00:44:21,799
Speaker 3: flown below the radar is that I want to be

799
00:44:21,840 --> 00:44:26,480
Speaker 3: anonymous right to the people who who sit sit.

800
00:44:26,360 --> 00:44:27,359
Speaker 2: Down in a focus group.

801
00:44:27,440 --> 00:44:29,920
Speaker 3: And I've I've had focused group respondents come up to

802
00:44:29,960 --> 00:44:33,360
Speaker 3: me and say that I'm somehow different from Frank Luntz

803
00:44:33,600 --> 00:44:35,920
Speaker 3: who were had where they had been responded in his

804
00:44:35,960 --> 00:44:39,680
Speaker 3: group prior to being in mind and offline.

805
00:44:39,680 --> 00:44:41,080
Speaker 2: I'll tell you a very funny story. I don't want

806
00:44:41,080 --> 00:44:41,720
Speaker 2: to repeat it public.

807
00:44:41,880 --> 00:44:44,520
Speaker 1: No, and again I don't. I'm not We're not trying

808
00:44:44,520 --> 00:44:47,200
Speaker 1: to pick on Frank here. But look, I found this

809
00:44:47,320 --> 00:44:50,440
Speaker 1: difficult myself, right I And you know, in the in

810
00:44:50,480 --> 00:44:52,880
Speaker 1: the world of network news, you know, they want you know,

811
00:44:52,920 --> 00:44:55,400
Speaker 1: you want Chuck Todd and they're talking to voters, right

812
00:44:55,440 --> 00:44:59,040
Speaker 1: and you tucked independent voters. It was really hard sometimes

813
00:44:59,080 --> 00:45:02,440
Speaker 1: to get them to to, you know, not feel like

814
00:45:02,480 --> 00:45:04,839
Speaker 1: they were talking to Chuck Todd and feeling like they

815
00:45:04,840 --> 00:45:06,960
Speaker 1: were trying to make an answer that I might have

816
00:45:07,320 --> 00:45:09,240
Speaker 1: in their own heads that I might quote unquote approve

817
00:45:09,280 --> 00:45:11,759
Speaker 1: of or and it's just like no, no, no, no, it's like

818
00:45:12,120 --> 00:45:15,520
Speaker 1: you don't you know, I'm trying to you know, I'm

819
00:45:15,560 --> 00:45:18,320
Speaker 1: trying to, you know, pretend I'm not here type of mindset.

820
00:45:18,400 --> 00:45:20,960
Speaker 1: And that's why I asked that. And I've wondered if Frank,

821
00:45:21,000 --> 00:45:24,000
Speaker 1: in some ways you can't make the focus group about

822
00:45:24,000 --> 00:45:26,239
Speaker 1: the moderator. That's my point, and I think that's where

823
00:45:26,280 --> 00:45:28,960
Speaker 1: I have failed, and I'm guessing that Frank struggles sometimes

824
00:45:28,960 --> 00:45:29,239
Speaker 1: with that.

825
00:45:29,760 --> 00:45:30,000
Speaker 2: Yeah.

826
00:45:30,520 --> 00:45:34,960
Speaker 3: I think for me, I'm a boring ass, late middle

827
00:45:35,000 --> 00:45:39,560
Speaker 3: aged white guy, and I am as vanilla as I

828
00:45:39,560 --> 00:45:41,440
Speaker 3: can possibly be in the focus groups.

829
00:45:41,640 --> 00:45:43,680
Speaker 2: I am very good at giving a.

830
00:45:44,000 --> 00:45:47,000
Speaker 1: Failure, not very vanilla, But yes, you play vanilla well

831
00:45:47,000 --> 00:45:47,399
Speaker 1: on TV.

832
00:45:48,120 --> 00:45:50,520
Speaker 2: Well, I do, because that's how you get the right answer.

833
00:45:50,560 --> 00:45:53,640
Speaker 3: And also that's how you don't get accused of being biased, right,

834
00:45:54,080 --> 00:45:56,200
Speaker 3: And I really do everything I can to try to

835
00:45:57,239 --> 00:45:59,279
Speaker 3: again throw the pitch straight down the middle of the plate.

836
00:46:00,160 --> 00:46:02,560
Speaker 1: Is how do you verify? You know everybody wants to

837
00:46:02,560 --> 00:46:04,799
Speaker 1: say they're a swing voter? Do you go to the

838
00:46:04,840 --> 00:46:06,919
Speaker 1: voter file to verify these folks? So I know you've

839
00:46:06,920 --> 00:46:09,439
Speaker 1: got a recruiting team, is it, Sego? I think, does

840
00:46:09,480 --> 00:46:13,880
Speaker 1: your recruiting for all of your focus group projects? Do

841
00:46:13,920 --> 00:46:15,920
Speaker 1: you do voter file verification on these people?

842
00:46:16,280 --> 00:46:17,200
Speaker 2: So I do not.

843
00:46:17,320 --> 00:46:19,279
Speaker 3: Let me tell you what we do do. So this

844
00:46:19,320 --> 00:46:21,799
Speaker 3: is an imperfect process. I am the first person to

845
00:46:21,880 --> 00:46:25,040
Speaker 3: admit it. It is impossible to know who voted for

846
00:46:25,120 --> 00:46:27,799
Speaker 3: whom or whether they voted. It's possible to know whether

847
00:46:27,840 --> 00:46:29,840
Speaker 3: they voted, it's impossible to know for whom they voted.

848
00:46:30,000 --> 00:46:31,560
Speaker 3: No one was in the voting booth or sitting at

849
00:46:31,600 --> 00:46:34,040
Speaker 3: the kitchen table with them if they voted at home. Right,

850
00:46:34,160 --> 00:46:38,160
Speaker 3: So two parts of the recruiting process. Part one, Sego

851
00:46:38,280 --> 00:46:41,280
Speaker 3: recruits them and does not ask them.

852
00:46:41,160 --> 00:46:42,080
Speaker 2: Are you a swing voter?

853
00:46:42,160 --> 00:46:44,120
Speaker 3: They ask who'd you vote for in twenty twenty four,

854
00:46:44,400 --> 00:46:46,319
Speaker 3: and then four years earlier, who'd you vote for in

855
00:46:46,360 --> 00:46:49,400
Speaker 3: twenty twenty. If they happen to say Trump in twenty

856
00:46:49,440 --> 00:46:52,640
Speaker 3: four Biden in twenty, then they immediately make the first cut.

857
00:46:53,320 --> 00:46:55,560
Speaker 3: But that's not enough for me. I have a person

858
00:46:55,640 --> 00:46:57,640
Speaker 3: on my team. His name is Matt and one of

859
00:46:57,680 --> 00:47:01,319
Speaker 3: his jobs is to personally interview every single one of

860
00:47:01,360 --> 00:47:04,200
Speaker 3: these swing voters before the focus group and say, okay,

861
00:47:04,200 --> 00:47:06,600
Speaker 3: you said you've voted for Trump and twenty four, why

862
00:47:06,640 --> 00:47:09,040
Speaker 3: did you vote for Trump and twenty four? Why did

863
00:47:09,040 --> 00:47:11,200
Speaker 3: you vote for Biden in twenty twenty? And if they

864
00:47:11,280 --> 00:47:14,680
Speaker 3: can't give a plausible answer to those questions, they're not

865
00:47:14,719 --> 00:47:15,680
Speaker 3: invited into the group.

866
00:47:15,800 --> 00:47:16,840
Speaker 2: We toss them overboard.

867
00:47:17,120 --> 00:47:21,000
Speaker 1: You don't try because another screening question I've heard is

868
00:47:21,800 --> 00:47:23,839
Speaker 1: how did you vote in twenty twenty? Not who did

869
00:47:23,840 --> 00:47:25,640
Speaker 1: you vote for? But do you remember how you voted

870
00:47:26,040 --> 00:47:29,839
Speaker 1: and where you went to vote. I've heard sometimes that

871
00:47:29,880 --> 00:47:31,880
Speaker 1: can be an effective screener question to find out if

872
00:47:31,880 --> 00:47:32,960
Speaker 1: people are bs and you're not.

873
00:47:33,400 --> 00:47:35,200
Speaker 3: It could be, and maybe we'll start doing it now

874
00:47:35,200 --> 00:47:37,439
Speaker 3: that you suggested it. I mean, I think it's there's

875
00:47:37,480 --> 00:47:40,680
Speaker 3: no again, there's no perfect way of doing this, and note,

876
00:47:40,719 --> 00:47:43,200
Speaker 3: and what happens is people's memories fate. I mean last

877
00:47:43,239 --> 00:47:45,040
Speaker 3: year we did focus groups in twenty twenty four we

878
00:47:45,040 --> 00:47:47,600
Speaker 3: were asking about their voting patterns in twenty sixteen and

879
00:47:47,680 --> 00:47:50,319
Speaker 3: twenty twenty. You know, I don't remember what I had

880
00:47:50,360 --> 00:47:51,319
Speaker 3: for breakfast two days ago.

881
00:47:51,360 --> 00:47:54,480
Speaker 1: Lot well and well, especially with COVID brain rich, we've

882
00:47:54,480 --> 00:47:57,800
Speaker 1: all liked none. I can't remember anything in twenty nineteen

883
00:47:57,800 --> 00:48:00,239
Speaker 1: and twenty fourteen are the same year to me. Sometimes, right,

884
00:48:00,400 --> 00:48:02,840
Speaker 1: anything pre COVID is just a blurer.

885
00:48:02,760 --> 00:48:03,160
Speaker 2: That's it.

886
00:48:03,360 --> 00:48:06,560
Speaker 3: Absolutely, and so again, no perfect way of doing this.

887
00:48:07,120 --> 00:48:09,400
Speaker 3: The thing is people, well, I think it enables us

888
00:48:09,440 --> 00:48:11,000
Speaker 3: to get at least something that I think is close

889
00:48:11,040 --> 00:48:13,160
Speaker 3: to the most truthful answer that's out there. Is the

890
00:48:13,160 --> 00:48:15,759
Speaker 3: fact that people don't know who or what category we're

891
00:48:15,800 --> 00:48:19,120
Speaker 3: looking for. If they knew we were looking for Trump voters,

892
00:48:19,160 --> 00:48:21,960
Speaker 3: are looking for consistent Democratic voters, they would answer that

893
00:48:21,960 --> 00:48:23,960
Speaker 3: way to get their one hundred and twenty five bucks.

894
00:48:24,160 --> 00:48:26,160
Speaker 3: But not knowing what we're looking for, it gives them

895
00:48:26,160 --> 00:48:27,800
Speaker 3: no reason to lie to us.

896
00:48:28,520 --> 00:48:30,640
Speaker 1: One hundred and twenty five bucks a session, right, and

897
00:48:30,680 --> 00:48:33,640
Speaker 1: that's what the time commitment is. What three hours, two hours.

898
00:48:33,680 --> 00:48:36,319
Speaker 3: What no, no, no, no, no, it's in total an

899
00:48:36,360 --> 00:48:38,640
Speaker 3: hour and forty five minutes, a fifteen minutes sort of

900
00:48:38,640 --> 00:48:40,440
Speaker 3: warm up, and then ninety minutes of conversation.

901
00:48:40,880 --> 00:48:42,720
Speaker 1: Rich, you are going to have a whole bunch of

902
00:48:42,760 --> 00:48:44,719
Speaker 1: my listeners are going to really one hundred twenty five

903
00:48:44,719 --> 00:48:46,640
Speaker 1: bucks for less than two hours of work. Count me in.

904
00:48:47,440 --> 00:48:48,120
Speaker 2: It's a good deal.

905
00:48:48,440 --> 00:48:51,560
Speaker 1: Yeah, it's not a bad deal. Eighty bucks an hour? Huh?

906
00:48:52,120 --> 00:48:54,480
Speaker 1: Not quite yeah, pretty close now, not quite that. What

907
00:48:54,520 --> 00:48:56,879
Speaker 1: are we looking at? Sixty bucks an hour? But so yeah,

908
00:48:57,000 --> 00:48:57,880
Speaker 1: not been a good money.

909
00:48:58,239 --> 00:48:59,200
Speaker 2: Yeah, it's good.

910
00:49:00,360 --> 00:49:03,120
Speaker 1: All right, let's dig in. You just did Pennsylvania and

911
00:49:03,200 --> 00:49:07,400
Speaker 1: you're just doing the seven battleground states and you're literally

912
00:49:07,480 --> 00:49:09,040
Speaker 1: going into a rotation every month.

913
00:49:09,320 --> 00:49:10,120
Speaker 2: So yeah, it's not quite a.

914
00:49:10,160 --> 00:49:12,960
Speaker 3: Rotation, but it's where we were hitting each state at

915
00:49:13,000 --> 00:49:14,839
Speaker 3: least once and most of them twice in the year.

916
00:49:15,400 --> 00:49:15,839
Speaker 2: Got it.

917
00:49:15,960 --> 00:49:20,719
Speaker 1: So Michigan was the one you flagged a few to

918
00:49:20,760 --> 00:49:24,280
Speaker 1: me there that was fascinating, And I keep talking about

919
00:49:24,280 --> 00:49:26,480
Speaker 1: this one before we get into Pennsylvania, where we're going

920
00:49:26,520 --> 00:49:29,680
Speaker 1: to play some clips for you folks, so get ready

921
00:49:29,680 --> 00:49:36,120
Speaker 1: for that. The Michigan group from September what stood out

922
00:49:36,160 --> 00:49:38,319
Speaker 1: to me, there was there was this one gentleman who

923
00:49:38,640 --> 00:49:43,000
Speaker 1: was really concerned about the consolidation of power, the lack

924
00:49:43,040 --> 00:49:45,960
Speaker 1: of checks on Trump, all of these things, thought he

925
00:49:46,040 --> 00:49:49,040
Speaker 1: was being power hungry and wasn't ready to change their vote.

926
00:49:50,440 --> 00:49:53,480
Speaker 1: Has that been a consistent finding? Are you starting to

927
00:49:53,520 --> 00:49:57,040
Speaker 1: see that? Was there a consistency between Michigan and Pennsylvania

928
00:49:57,040 --> 00:49:57,720
Speaker 1: on that issue?

929
00:49:58,280 --> 00:50:02,239
Speaker 3: So what's consistent is that not every month, but I've

930
00:50:02,239 --> 00:50:04,880
Speaker 3: come across a number of those people who are giving

931
00:50:05,600 --> 00:50:13,600
Speaker 3: very anti Trump comments but basically would not take Harris

932
00:50:13,600 --> 00:50:14,120
Speaker 3: if they had.

933
00:50:14,040 --> 00:50:16,200
Speaker 2: To redo the vote.

934
00:50:16,560 --> 00:50:21,560
Speaker 3: And it happened again this month in Pennsylvania. I send

935
00:50:21,560 --> 00:50:24,160
Speaker 3: you a clip on that where I had a woman

936
00:50:24,200 --> 00:50:26,400
Speaker 3: who said she disapproved of Trump.

937
00:50:27,719 --> 00:50:28,120
Speaker 2: I don't hear.

938
00:50:28,840 --> 00:50:31,279
Speaker 1: Actually, I have it here, and I want to get

939
00:50:31,280 --> 00:50:33,960
Speaker 1: into this a second, and let's let's you dove into it.

940
00:50:35,120 --> 00:50:37,920
Speaker 1: But we're going to play the clip for folks.

941
00:50:38,360 --> 00:50:43,319
Speaker 4: I disapprove because number one, he's a felon. I don't

942
00:50:43,360 --> 00:50:46,000
Speaker 4: think a fellain should be president of the United States.

943
00:50:46,040 --> 00:50:50,239
Speaker 4: He's a pathological liar. This ice thing is getting out

944
00:50:50,280 --> 00:50:52,840
Speaker 4: of control. If you is getting out of control, the

945
00:50:52,880 --> 00:50:56,600
Speaker 4: government is shut down, and I don't think that he's

946
00:50:56,719 --> 00:51:01,680
Speaker 4: doing enough for the people. Prices or sky high like

947
00:51:03,480 --> 00:51:08,920
Speaker 4: insurance premiums are going to be going up, and I

948
00:51:08,960 --> 00:51:11,759
Speaker 4: think that he could do something about it.

949
00:51:12,320 --> 00:51:15,680
Speaker 3: Okay, Brenda, my part of my job is to play

950
00:51:15,680 --> 00:51:18,080
Speaker 3: devil's advocate. So if you love me in a second,

951
00:51:18,080 --> 00:51:20,480
Speaker 3: just let me ask you a question. So you mentioned

952
00:51:20,520 --> 00:51:22,800
Speaker 3: that he's a convicted felon. He was a convicted felon

953
00:51:22,800 --> 00:51:25,680
Speaker 3: before the election. What you voted for him knowing he

954
00:51:25,719 --> 00:51:28,520
Speaker 3: was a convicted felon? So why are you holding that

955
00:51:28,560 --> 00:51:29,160
Speaker 3: against him now?

956
00:51:29,200 --> 00:51:33,640
Speaker 5: I guess, well, he there should have been something in

957
00:51:33,719 --> 00:51:35,000
Speaker 5: place in the Constitution.

958
00:51:35,520 --> 00:51:39,400
Speaker 4: I know what you're asking me, but I don't know.

959
00:51:39,440 --> 00:51:42,759
Speaker 5: It didn't bother me then, but now it is because

960
00:51:42,760 --> 00:51:45,120
Speaker 5: there's so many things coming out, like you know, with

961
00:51:45,160 --> 00:51:49,239
Speaker 5: the Maxwell files and all these things. So I think

962
00:51:49,280 --> 00:51:51,920
Speaker 5: the Constitution should have done a better job by saying

963
00:51:52,160 --> 00:51:56,360
Speaker 5: number one, that he had no political experience at all,

964
00:51:57,239 --> 00:52:01,200
Speaker 5: and that the other thing is conct Brenda.

965
00:52:01,160 --> 00:52:03,040
Speaker 3: I'm sorry, I'm me to be argumentative at all, but

966
00:52:04,480 --> 00:52:07,560
Speaker 3: he'd been president for four years. He had experience when

967
00:52:07,600 --> 00:52:13,399
Speaker 3: you voted for him again last November, right, Yeah, I'm

968
00:52:13,920 --> 00:52:15,840
Speaker 3: I'm I'm some a bit confused, like, why did you

969
00:52:15,880 --> 00:52:17,320
Speaker 3: choose him over Kamala Harris?

970
00:52:18,560 --> 00:52:22,160
Speaker 5: Because I thought the heme was better that I didn't

971
00:52:22,360 --> 00:52:26,319
Speaker 5: particularly like her, so between the two, it was like

972
00:52:27,480 --> 00:52:29,839
Speaker 5: I had to go with him because I didn't like her.

973
00:52:30,239 --> 00:52:32,840
Speaker 1: You insert yourself and say, you know, he was a

974
00:52:32,880 --> 00:52:37,200
Speaker 1: convicted felon before you voted for him in twenty twenty four,

975
00:52:38,360 --> 00:52:41,600
Speaker 1: and then Rich she goes through this hammin and Han

976
00:52:41,680 --> 00:52:44,359
Speaker 1: and she basically like, I just couldn't vote for Kamala Hair.

977
00:52:45,200 --> 00:52:50,520
Speaker 2: Yeah, now, Brenda was awesome. That was quite an exchange.

978
00:52:51,640 --> 00:52:55,240
Speaker 3: She really had a lot of reasons why she didn't approve,

979
00:52:55,280 --> 00:52:57,560
Speaker 3: and some of them had nothing to do with her vote,

980
00:52:57,560 --> 00:53:00,440
Speaker 3: because she was complaining also, he didn't have experience, and

981
00:53:00,480 --> 00:53:02,600
Speaker 3: I said, well, he served for four years as president.

982
00:53:02,600 --> 00:53:05,400
Speaker 3: You can't say in twenty twenty four he didn't have experience.

983
00:53:06,080 --> 00:53:08,719
Speaker 3: So but really, what it came down to for her

984
00:53:08,960 --> 00:53:11,440
Speaker 3: was she couldn't vote for Harris. And what I keep

985
00:53:11,560 --> 00:53:14,600
Speaker 3: encountering to your earlier point is that there are folks

986
00:53:14,600 --> 00:53:19,320
Speaker 3: who twist themselves into pretzels to justify not choosing Harris

987
00:53:19,360 --> 00:53:22,840
Speaker 3: then and not choosing Harris now if they could revote,

988
00:53:22,960 --> 00:53:27,080
Speaker 3: they just for a variety of reasons cannot abide her

989
00:53:27,440 --> 00:53:28,959
Speaker 3: and will take anything from Trump.

990
00:53:29,080 --> 00:53:31,400
Speaker 1: Richard, are we going to talk around the elephant in

991
00:53:31,400 --> 00:53:31,960
Speaker 1: the room?

992
00:53:32,360 --> 00:53:32,560
Speaker 2: Right?

993
00:53:32,640 --> 00:53:34,640
Speaker 1: I mean, it's hard not to wonder if this had

994
00:53:34,640 --> 00:53:35,920
Speaker 1: to do with her being a black woman.

995
00:53:36,920 --> 00:53:39,520
Speaker 3: Well, so you've got multiple issues there, right, You've got

996
00:53:40,080 --> 00:53:44,560
Speaker 3: woman of color, person of color, and female. So I've

997
00:53:44,600 --> 00:53:47,040
Speaker 3: come across in the course of the last year plus

998
00:53:47,160 --> 00:53:49,480
Speaker 3: people who wouldn't vote for her because she was female,

999
00:53:50,160 --> 00:53:52,719
Speaker 3: who told me explicitly that they wouldn't vote for it

1000
00:53:52,719 --> 00:53:56,360
Speaker 3: because she was female, People who danced around the race issue,

1001
00:53:56,360 --> 00:53:59,440
Speaker 3: but certainly I suspected from the comments that they that

1002
00:53:59,520 --> 00:53:59,960
Speaker 3: was the reason.

1003
00:54:00,200 --> 00:54:03,440
Speaker 1: Well, that's so funny, Like, look, Brenda's it's one of

1004
00:54:03,480 --> 00:54:08,640
Speaker 1: those she says, I thought he was better than I

1005
00:54:08,680 --> 00:54:11,239
Speaker 1: didn't particularly like her, so between the two, it was

1006
00:54:11,280 --> 00:54:12,960
Speaker 1: like I had to go with him because I didn't

1007
00:54:13,040 --> 00:54:17,120
Speaker 1: like her like she doesn't. She can't can't articulate why

1008
00:54:17,200 --> 00:54:17,920
Speaker 1: she doesn't like her.

1009
00:54:18,400 --> 00:54:20,440
Speaker 3: Yeah, and keep in mind, Brenda's a woman of color,

1010
00:54:21,160 --> 00:54:24,000
Speaker 3: so super super interesting, and I've got.

1011
00:54:23,880 --> 00:54:26,000
Speaker 1: I don't know what to make of that. That's fair. Yeah,

1012
00:54:26,040 --> 00:54:27,279
Speaker 1: well but I can tell.

1013
00:54:27,160 --> 00:54:27,880
Speaker 2: You what make of it.

1014
00:54:27,880 --> 00:54:30,640
Speaker 3: To me, it's fractually pretty straightforward. For some of these

1015
00:54:30,640 --> 00:54:33,239
Speaker 3: folks I spoke to, they are either deeply religious or

1016
00:54:33,320 --> 00:54:37,200
Speaker 3: deeply conservative socially, they think that men should be in control,

1017
00:54:37,320 --> 00:54:39,520
Speaker 3: men should be in power, women should not.

1018
00:54:40,160 --> 00:54:43,080
Speaker 1: And Biden was somebody they could vote for. But Clinton

1019
00:54:43,080 --> 00:54:46,640
Speaker 1: and Harris may have been literally simply their gender may

1020
00:54:46,640 --> 00:54:48,480
Speaker 1: have been the disqualifier for these voters.

1021
00:54:48,880 --> 00:54:50,960
Speaker 3: It would have been a large part of the consideration,

1022
00:54:51,280 --> 00:54:53,760
Speaker 3: along with by the way, a lot of these folks

1023
00:54:53,800 --> 00:54:56,040
Speaker 3: thought that Biden failed and she was part of a

1024
00:54:56,080 --> 00:54:58,719
Speaker 3: failed administration, and they didn't want to have their fingerprints

1025
00:54:58,760 --> 00:55:05,920
Speaker 3: on that for the next four years.

1026
00:55:06,360 --> 00:55:09,359
Speaker 1: I look at the twenty twenty four campaign, you know,

1027
00:55:09,400 --> 00:55:11,759
Speaker 1: and there's different ways people want to interpret it. I

1028
00:55:11,920 --> 00:55:16,759
Speaker 1: was actually relieved to know that voting was normal. It

1029
00:55:16,840 --> 00:55:20,400
Speaker 1: is normal to me that people simply vote against and

1030
00:55:20,480 --> 00:55:22,719
Speaker 1: vote on the economy like that has been you know,

1031
00:55:22,760 --> 00:55:25,960
Speaker 1: that's how you and I were professionally raised in politics,

1032
00:55:26,000 --> 00:55:28,280
Speaker 1: right Rich, Like that was that is how it worked

1033
00:55:28,280 --> 00:55:30,120
Speaker 1: in the eighties and the nineties and the odds, Like

1034
00:55:30,160 --> 00:55:33,560
Speaker 1: that's just how it worked. Only recently have we made

1035
00:55:33,560 --> 00:55:35,960
Speaker 1: all these other issues in there, and you're like, oh,

1036
00:55:36,000 --> 00:55:39,120
Speaker 1: wait a minute, post COVID voters are starting to behave

1037
00:55:39,200 --> 00:55:44,920
Speaker 1: we're more normally again. It's about finances, it's about competency.

1038
00:55:45,800 --> 00:55:47,200
Speaker 3: It is and I will say on whether you have

1039
00:55:47,239 --> 00:55:50,000
Speaker 3: to clip on this also. But one thing that we

1040
00:55:50,560 --> 00:55:54,000
Speaker 3: uncover month after month is that the dissatisfaction with Trump

1041
00:55:54,040 --> 00:55:56,799
Speaker 3: among these Biden to Trump voters, among those who are

1042
00:55:56,800 --> 00:56:01,320
Speaker 3: dissatisfied with him now, it's mostly tied exclusively, but mostly

1043
00:56:01,360 --> 00:56:04,560
Speaker 3: tied to the state of the economy and how they're struggling,

1044
00:56:04,840 --> 00:56:07,960
Speaker 3: and how they see a billionaire who doesn't need to

1045
00:56:08,040 --> 00:56:11,440
Speaker 3: have to worry about these things, not addressing the concern

1046
00:56:11,719 --> 00:56:13,200
Speaker 3: that most matters to them.

1047
00:56:13,440 --> 00:56:18,680
Speaker 6: Inflation doesn't affect him, simple, He's not feeling the effects

1048
00:56:18,680 --> 00:56:21,800
Speaker 6: of it. So when you're not direkly impacted by something,

1049
00:56:21,920 --> 00:56:24,480
Speaker 6: even if it's going on around you, you tend not

1050
00:56:24,640 --> 00:56:29,120
Speaker 6: to worry about it. He's to busy playing hopscotch in Russia.

1051
00:56:29,200 --> 00:56:31,600
Speaker 6: I don't know, he's just not worried about anything over here.

1052
00:56:32,560 --> 00:56:35,759
Speaker 7: Well, I think that he's more focused overall on the

1053
00:56:35,840 --> 00:56:39,960
Speaker 7: economy as a whole. He's focused on using tariffs and

1054
00:56:40,000 --> 00:56:43,399
Speaker 7: carpet bombing with tariffs to try to force deals which

1055
00:56:43,440 --> 00:56:49,400
Speaker 7: he hopes eventually will address inflation, but it's not. He

1056
00:56:49,480 --> 00:56:53,680
Speaker 7: thinks he's going to bring jobs back by forcing these tariffs.

1057
00:56:53,480 --> 00:56:57,839
Speaker 7: It's almost an unforced error. If he was focusing on

1058
00:56:57,840 --> 00:57:01,200
Speaker 7: one place than another with his tariff, it wouldn't hurt

1059
00:57:01,200 --> 00:57:04,520
Speaker 7: as bad. But it he just has to hit everybody

1060
00:57:04,560 --> 00:57:07,319
Speaker 7: all once, all at the same time with them, and

1061
00:57:07,360 --> 00:57:10,880
Speaker 7: it's causing mayhem with prices of goods and services.

1062
00:57:10,920 --> 00:57:15,320
Speaker 1: Overall. What I find remarkable is how much they're following

1063
00:57:15,360 --> 00:57:18,440
Speaker 1: the day to day on tariffs like these. Weren't uninformed

1064
00:57:18,480 --> 00:57:20,800
Speaker 1: voters about the current state of the economy, which if

1065
00:57:20,840 --> 00:57:23,240
Speaker 1: I were in the Trump white House that would really

1066
00:57:23,240 --> 00:57:26,720
Speaker 1: make me nervous. They're following this tariff stuff fairly closely.

1067
00:57:27,720 --> 00:57:30,880
Speaker 3: So one of the great fascinations I have with the

1068
00:57:30,920 --> 00:57:33,480
Speaker 3: project now compared to a year ago when I was

1069
00:57:33,560 --> 00:57:36,720
Speaker 3: doing then Trump to Biden voters as supposed to now

1070
00:57:36,760 --> 00:57:39,960
Speaker 3: Biden to Trump voters, was that I would ask Biden

1071
00:57:40,280 --> 00:57:44,439
Speaker 3: voters people vote for him in twenty twenty, please name,

1072
00:57:44,480 --> 00:57:48,760
Speaker 3: if you could, one thing that President Biden has achieved

1073
00:57:48,800 --> 00:57:52,440
Speaker 3: in office that he himself would call an achievement. So

1074
00:57:52,480 --> 00:57:54,600
Speaker 3: I didn't want a snarky answer like, oh, he achieved

1075
00:57:54,720 --> 00:57:57,959
Speaker 3: high inflation. I didn't want so, okay, So the people

1076
00:57:57,960 --> 00:58:01,400
Speaker 3: would stop, and roughly each time I ask it could

1077
00:58:01,480 --> 00:58:04,560
Speaker 3: not name a single thing that Biden had achieved in

1078
00:58:04,680 --> 00:58:07,440
Speaker 3: office that he himself would call an achievement. And among

1079
00:58:07,440 --> 00:58:11,320
Speaker 3: those who could name something, way disproportionately it was the

1080
00:58:11,360 --> 00:58:12,400
Speaker 3: same topic.

1081
00:58:12,880 --> 00:58:14,600
Speaker 2: Student loan debt relief.

1082
00:58:14,640 --> 00:58:18,560
Speaker 1: No kidding now, infrastructure, which was actually probably the best

1083
00:58:18,600 --> 00:58:19,439
Speaker 1: achievement he got.

1084
00:58:19,560 --> 00:58:23,800
Speaker 3: You know, Chuck It says, though infrastructure never happened, chips

1085
00:58:23,840 --> 00:58:27,720
Speaker 3: never happened, Relief Act never happened, in Flacy Reduction Act

1086
00:58:27,760 --> 00:58:30,400
Speaker 3: never happened. So for them, I want you to imagine

1087
00:58:30,400 --> 00:58:32,440
Speaker 3: the mind of a swing voter. Now I'll get to

1088
00:58:32,480 --> 00:58:34,840
Speaker 3: the Trump point about it in a second. The comparison.

1089
00:58:35,280 --> 00:58:39,160
Speaker 3: So you're thinking about President Biden, you're thinking, okay, so

1090
00:58:39,360 --> 00:58:42,320
Speaker 3: he's basically slept through the last three and a half years.

1091
00:58:43,120 --> 00:58:45,320
Speaker 3: One time they came to him with an executive order,

1092
00:58:45,360 --> 00:58:48,680
Speaker 3: he signed it trying to relieve student debt, and that's

1093
00:58:48,720 --> 00:58:52,560
Speaker 3: all he did, and that's your conception of him. Trump

1094
00:58:52,640 --> 00:58:56,160
Speaker 3: comes in and suddenly he's in the news constantly, He's

1095
00:58:56,200 --> 00:58:59,320
Speaker 3: in your social media feed constantly. And if you have

1096
00:58:59,400 --> 00:59:03,520
Speaker 3: voted for him and be like, finally someone is doing something.

1097
00:59:03,840 --> 00:59:04,400
Speaker 2: So it's the.

1098
00:59:04,440 --> 00:59:09,600
Speaker 3: Bias toward action versus the disapproval of inertia, which is

1099
00:59:09,680 --> 00:59:12,240
Speaker 3: what they associated with Biden. And I can't tell you

1100
00:59:12,280 --> 00:59:14,880
Speaker 3: how many times this year I've heard about Trump at

1101
00:59:15,000 --> 00:59:16,520
Speaker 3: least he's doing something.

1102
00:59:16,960 --> 00:59:18,160
Speaker 2: Whether they like it or not.

1103
00:59:18,520 --> 00:59:20,680
Speaker 3: They still like the fact that there's action as opposed

1104
00:59:20,720 --> 00:59:22,040
Speaker 3: to Biden's inertia.

1105
00:59:22,800 --> 00:59:25,360
Speaker 1: No, I've always said that what's interesting, there's always motion

1106
00:59:26,720 --> 00:59:30,120
Speaker 1: with Trump. The question is is their movement? Like I

1107
00:59:30,120 --> 00:59:33,760
Speaker 1: have always said, I feel like life with Trump, covering

1108
00:59:33,880 --> 00:59:36,880
Speaker 1: him is literally like being on a roller coaster because

1109
00:59:36,920 --> 00:59:38,360
Speaker 1: you get on and off in the same place.

1110
00:59:40,520 --> 00:59:43,840
Speaker 3: Well, but that's from your perspective, getting as close to

1111
00:59:43,960 --> 00:59:46,200
Speaker 3: the process as you are. You see that. I think

1112
00:59:46,200 --> 00:59:49,440
Speaker 3: that nuance is lost with the folks that I'm talking to. So,

1113
00:59:49,840 --> 00:59:54,600
Speaker 3: you know, Trump's his flair for the dramatic, His ability

1114
00:59:54,640 --> 00:59:57,400
Speaker 3: to sign his name in huge bowld letters with a

1115
00:59:57,440 --> 01:00:00,720
Speaker 3: big sharpie and to hold it up. That looks like

1116
01:00:00,880 --> 01:00:04,280
Speaker 3: action to someone who didn't happen to see Biden signing

1117
01:00:04,320 --> 01:00:08,280
Speaker 3: these multi trillion dollar bills into law, and Trump's doing

1118
01:00:08,280 --> 01:00:08,960
Speaker 3: it repeatedly.

1119
01:00:09,040 --> 01:00:09,920
Speaker 2: The image of him.

1120
01:00:09,760 --> 01:00:12,720
Speaker 3: Theleville office is him holding up some leather binder with

1121
01:00:12,800 --> 01:00:15,320
Speaker 3: his big signature on it and then boasting about it.

1122
01:00:15,320 --> 01:00:18,120
Speaker 2: And for people I talked to, that's action.

1123
01:00:19,480 --> 01:00:22,160
Speaker 1: You know, It's interesting rich us take a step back here.

1124
01:00:22,280 --> 01:00:26,600
Speaker 1: Biden really was an outlier of the last thirty years

1125
01:00:26,680 --> 01:00:29,800
Speaker 1: in how they conducted that presidency. When I think about

1126
01:00:29,800 --> 01:00:32,720
Speaker 1: the image management of the you know, Michael Deaver and

1127
01:00:32,800 --> 01:00:35,720
Speaker 1: Ronald Reagan right when when I was, you know, and

1128
01:00:35,720 --> 01:00:40,200
Speaker 1: how you know, I basically in college we studied Michael

1129
01:00:40,200 --> 01:00:44,160
Speaker 1: Deaver as image management in my political science classes. Bill

1130
01:00:44,240 --> 01:00:48,240
Speaker 1: Clinton was clearly always you know, some you know people

1131
01:00:48,280 --> 01:00:51,320
Speaker 1: say he was. We would borrow some of Reagan's gestures

1132
01:00:51,320 --> 01:00:56,160
Speaker 1: and stuff, and he had he was always performing. George W. Bush,

1133
01:00:56,200 --> 01:00:58,400
Speaker 1: they were very image conscious and ended up biting them

1134
01:00:58,400 --> 01:01:00,600
Speaker 1: in the butt with the mission accomplished thing at one point.

1135
01:01:00,640 --> 01:01:03,840
Speaker 1: But again, it was about the visuals. It was about always,

1136
01:01:03,920 --> 01:01:06,520
Speaker 1: you know, showing, showing him and what they wanted to

1137
01:01:06,560 --> 01:01:08,760
Speaker 1: put him in the best possible light. Barack Obama was

1138
01:01:08,800 --> 01:01:13,480
Speaker 1: really very much engaged that way. Trump too. Biden was

1139
01:01:13,520 --> 01:01:19,840
Speaker 1: the outlier. And I guess it's a combination of old COVID, right,

1140
01:01:19,920 --> 01:01:24,360
Speaker 1: you sort of put all those together. And you know,

1141
01:01:24,400 --> 01:01:28,120
Speaker 1: I wonder if if the Democrats are overrating their problems. Basically,

1142
01:01:28,160 --> 01:01:31,480
Speaker 1: they just had a nominee that just wasn't built for

1143
01:01:31,520 --> 01:01:32,920
Speaker 1: the modern media age.

1144
01:01:33,400 --> 01:01:35,640
Speaker 3: Now to me, he delt with the media the way

1145
01:01:35,720 --> 01:01:38,960
Speaker 3: Jerry Ford dealt with the media, which is seriously, I

1146
01:01:38,960 --> 01:01:39,240
Speaker 3: mean it.

1147
01:01:39,200 --> 01:01:41,960
Speaker 1: Was after making Jerry Ford reference, you're probably losing.

1148
01:01:41,840 --> 01:01:45,480
Speaker 3: Right, yeah, exactly that I'll sign a bill, have a ceremonial, Well,

1149
01:01:45,520 --> 01:01:49,840
Speaker 3: invite the three major networks and everybody will know about it.

1150
01:01:49,920 --> 01:01:51,280
Speaker 2: And lo and behold, they didn't.

1151
01:01:51,640 --> 01:01:54,480
Speaker 3: And I have a whole montage I can show it

1152
01:01:54,480 --> 01:01:58,280
Speaker 3: to you someday of swing voters in during Biden's term

1153
01:01:58,400 --> 01:02:00,600
Speaker 3: having no idea what was going on in terms of

1154
01:02:00,640 --> 01:02:03,520
Speaker 3: process in Washington, achievements that, no idea he worked on

1155
01:02:03,560 --> 01:02:06,240
Speaker 3: climate change, no idea about infrastructure, No, didn't know it.

1156
01:02:06,280 --> 01:02:08,400
Speaker 3: Who served on the January sixth committee. I mean, just

1157
01:02:08,440 --> 01:02:10,880
Speaker 3: go down the list of stuff they just didn't pay

1158
01:02:10,920 --> 01:02:14,360
Speaker 3: attention to. And so the challenge it really is, obviously

1159
01:02:14,360 --> 01:02:18,040
Speaker 3: we're dancing around the term. It's the attention economy we're

1160
01:02:18,040 --> 01:02:22,080
Speaker 3: living in that Trump has mastered it. Biden never mastered it.

1161
01:02:22,120 --> 01:02:24,320
Speaker 3: And I would argue if the Democrats have any chance

1162
01:02:24,360 --> 01:02:26,520
Speaker 3: of winning anything again, they have to learn how to

1163
01:02:26,560 --> 01:02:28,560
Speaker 3: master it because that's the world we're living in where

1164
01:02:28,560 --> 01:02:31,880
Speaker 3: people are distracted constantly and Trump manages to break through.

1165
01:02:31,720 --> 01:02:34,120
Speaker 1: It, and you've got to You know, it's interesting because

1166
01:02:34,120 --> 01:02:36,040
Speaker 1: I'll have my friends in the left say it's you

1167
01:02:36,120 --> 01:02:38,920
Speaker 1: people in the media didn't do enough to showcase Biden,

1168
01:02:38,960 --> 01:02:41,880
Speaker 1: and I'm like, whoa, whoa, whoa, whoa. I'm like, you know,

1169
01:02:42,000 --> 01:02:44,680
Speaker 1: if you actually do all your Google search it up,

1170
01:02:44,720 --> 01:02:47,920
Speaker 1: there's plenty of coverage of everything he did. What was

1171
01:02:48,040 --> 01:02:52,400
Speaker 1: missing was Biden trying to amplify the coverage himself. And

1172
01:02:52,440 --> 01:02:54,440
Speaker 1: I think, what, you know, what just about everybody in

1173
01:02:54,480 --> 01:02:57,320
Speaker 1: corporate America is doing. I assume you have a for

1174
01:02:57,480 --> 01:03:00,520
Speaker 1: profit client list these days who are thinking the same thing,

1175
01:03:00,560 --> 01:03:02,600
Speaker 1: which is you've got to take it. You've got to

1176
01:03:02,600 --> 01:03:05,480
Speaker 1: do your own communicating. You can't rely on legacy media,

1177
01:03:05,520 --> 01:03:09,400
Speaker 1: free media anymore. And if you are, you're losing. Right,

1178
01:03:09,480 --> 01:03:12,280
Speaker 1: anybody that does that, whether you're a politician or your

1179
01:03:12,320 --> 01:03:15,439
Speaker 1: Coca cola right, you've got you know, Bud Light found

1180
01:03:15,440 --> 01:03:18,440
Speaker 1: out the hard way, right, You've got to be take advantage.

1181
01:03:18,560 --> 01:03:22,840
Speaker 1: You've got to proactively do your own communicating. This is

1182
01:03:22,880 --> 01:03:25,760
Speaker 1: not all the media's job, is this or this? We're

1183
01:03:25,800 --> 01:03:29,400
Speaker 1: all the media at including the communication shop of the

1184
01:03:29,440 --> 01:03:32,080
Speaker 1: White House. And I think in that this is where

1185
01:03:32,160 --> 01:03:34,760
Speaker 1: Biden's entire operation was a relic.

1186
01:03:35,480 --> 01:03:38,520
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, you're personally way more entrepreneurial about this

1187
01:03:38,760 --> 01:03:41,400
Speaker 3: than the entire White House was in the last administration.

1188
01:03:41,960 --> 01:03:44,680
Speaker 3: So I mean that's that's the difference. And I think

1189
01:03:44,760 --> 01:03:48,520
Speaker 3: people have to understand that. And the thing was a

1190
01:03:48,520 --> 01:03:50,600
Speaker 3: lot of people follow the Swing Voter project, people on

1191
01:03:50,640 --> 01:03:52,920
Speaker 3: the left, people on the right. There are folks in

1192
01:03:52,920 --> 01:03:55,360
Speaker 3: the Biden administration I know, paid attention to what I

1193
01:03:55,400 --> 01:03:58,080
Speaker 3: was producing each month, and it was abundantly clear from

1194
01:03:58,160 --> 01:04:00,880
Speaker 3: these highlights videos I put out that the message wasn't

1195
01:04:00,880 --> 01:04:03,720
Speaker 3: getting through. And I was always mystified by this. It

1196
01:04:03,760 --> 01:04:05,720
Speaker 3: wasn't just me, Obviously, I'm just one guy out there.

1197
01:04:05,720 --> 01:04:08,360
Speaker 3: I'm not tied to the administration. I mean Republicans like

1198
01:04:08,360 --> 01:04:12,160
Speaker 3: what I do too, But my god, Like, really, month

1199
01:04:12,200 --> 01:04:14,400
Speaker 3: after month, I'm discovering that no one knows about your

1200
01:04:14,480 --> 01:04:18,760
Speaker 3: multi trillion dollar legislative achievements. How is that not something

1201
01:04:18,840 --> 01:04:22,640
Speaker 3: that you're solving for? I was, again just a question

1202
01:04:22,680 --> 01:04:23,720
Speaker 3: I'm asking let's put it that.

1203
01:04:23,800 --> 01:04:24,600
Speaker 2: Way, all right.

1204
01:04:24,640 --> 01:04:26,720
Speaker 1: I want to do another excerpt here because this is

1205
01:04:26,760 --> 01:04:30,280
Speaker 1: a little counterintuitive to what I think conventional wisdom is

1206
01:04:30,320 --> 01:04:34,520
Speaker 1: these days, is whether Trump is exercising more executive power

1207
01:04:34,560 --> 01:04:38,960
Speaker 1: trying to consolidate the presidency. We've had the no King's rally, right?

1208
01:04:39,120 --> 01:04:42,600
Speaker 1: Is this penetrating? Is this an issue? So let's play

1209
01:04:42,600 --> 01:04:46,200
Speaker 1: this exchange. You have Kailana h Anthony d Jim b

1210
01:04:47,040 --> 01:04:51,240
Speaker 1: All responding here on this question of the simple question

1211
01:04:51,320 --> 01:04:54,040
Speaker 1: you asked, was you know, do you see Trump exercising

1212
01:04:54,080 --> 01:04:58,400
Speaker 1: more power than Biden, Obama and Bush? So let's litten

1213
01:04:58,480 --> 01:04:59,160
Speaker 1: know those answers.

1214
01:04:59,440 --> 01:05:06,560
Speaker 8: I mean, they've all deported people, They've all, you know,

1215
01:05:06,760 --> 01:05:11,040
Speaker 8: done different things. But I mean maybe not in the

1216
01:05:11,080 --> 01:05:14,960
Speaker 8: same towards the same topic, but I think generally as

1217
01:05:14,960 --> 01:05:20,720
Speaker 8: a whole, he's about the same with executive power.

1218
01:05:21,160 --> 01:05:23,720
Speaker 2: Okay, Anthy, what about you?

1219
01:05:25,000 --> 01:05:27,960
Speaker 9: Similar to what was said, I think that, but being

1220
01:05:27,960 --> 01:05:31,520
Speaker 9: in the president, he has ultimate authority similar to what

1221
01:05:31,560 --> 01:05:34,600
Speaker 9: the other roles were as well with the other previous presidents.

1222
01:05:35,520 --> 01:05:38,160
Speaker 9: Maybe he's more vocal saying it, but I think I

1223
01:05:38,200 --> 01:05:40,360
Speaker 9: don't see any difference with what they were able to

1224
01:05:40,400 --> 01:05:41,280
Speaker 9: do and what they've done.

1225
01:05:41,600 --> 01:05:44,960
Speaker 10: Barack Obama and Joe Biden had more executive orders than

1226
01:05:44,960 --> 01:05:51,840
Speaker 10: any president by numbers. I'm sorry, George Bush and Barack

1227
01:05:51,880 --> 01:05:56,959
Speaker 10: Obama had more executive orders than anyone they had. I mean,

1228
01:05:57,160 --> 01:06:00,720
Speaker 10: George Bush used the nine to eleven bombing to push

1229
01:06:01,160 --> 01:06:06,440
Speaker 10: consolidate power in the presidency. Barack Obama did it because

1230
01:06:06,480 --> 01:06:10,440
Speaker 10: he had pretty much everyone behind him for whatever he did.

1231
01:06:10,560 --> 01:06:15,800
Speaker 10: So those two definitely, I mean, if not more the

1232
01:06:15,880 --> 01:06:16,560
Speaker 10: same amount.

1233
01:06:17,080 --> 01:06:19,800
Speaker 1: I'll tell you what's interesting here, Rich, is that they

1234
01:06:20,640 --> 01:06:24,320
Speaker 1: they all think it's no different than Obama or Bush

1235
01:06:24,320 --> 01:06:26,400
Speaker 1: in particular, and even Biden to an extent.

1236
01:06:26,880 --> 01:06:27,160
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1237
01:06:27,200 --> 01:06:29,720
Speaker 3: So the thirteen people I had in Pennsylvania, about half

1238
01:06:29,720 --> 01:06:32,040
Speaker 3: of them thought he was exercising more, but about half

1239
01:06:32,080 --> 01:06:33,720
Speaker 3: of them thought it was the same amount as these

1240
01:06:33,760 --> 01:06:39,560
Speaker 3: prior presidents. And as just noted in these clips, they're

1241
01:06:39,600 --> 01:06:44,040
Speaker 3: basically saying, well, you know, Obama did this executive thing

1242
01:06:44,160 --> 01:06:50,440
Speaker 3: and Biden did this thing, and they're comparing what they

1243
01:06:50,480 --> 01:06:53,400
Speaker 3: see Trump doing to what these prior presidents doing, and

1244
01:06:53,440 --> 01:06:56,440
Speaker 3: they don't detect a qualitative difference. And to me, that

1245
01:06:56,600 --> 01:06:59,240
Speaker 3: was so fascinating is that the media is constantly talking

1246
01:06:59,240 --> 01:07:02,560
Speaker 3: about how Trump is breaking all these these norms, but

1247
01:07:02,640 --> 01:07:04,600
Speaker 3: they don't see that. They see Trump as just being

1248
01:07:04,640 --> 01:07:07,040
Speaker 3: part of a continuum of presidents doing things they shouldn't

1249
01:07:07,040 --> 01:07:07,360
Speaker 3: be doing.

1250
01:07:07,960 --> 01:07:10,640
Speaker 1: Let me let me posit something here for you to

1251
01:07:11,160 --> 01:07:15,480
Speaker 1: take in, which is whether it was amplifying. I'm going

1252
01:07:15,560 --> 01:07:19,240
Speaker 1: to connect something here from the one thing Biden that

1253
01:07:19,320 --> 01:07:21,479
Speaker 1: you said voters took away from what they thought Biden

1254
01:07:21,520 --> 01:07:24,800
Speaker 1: accomplished with student loans. What's interesting about that topic that

1255
01:07:24,880 --> 01:07:27,680
Speaker 1: happens to be a topic that the right also amplified

1256
01:07:27,720 --> 01:07:31,160
Speaker 1: when he did it. When I look at executive power

1257
01:07:31,200 --> 01:07:35,680
Speaker 1: with Bush, Obama and Biden and Trump, the party out

1258
01:07:35,720 --> 01:07:39,040
Speaker 1: of power would amplify anytime that they thought they were

1259
01:07:39,120 --> 01:07:44,080
Speaker 1: over using their power. Bush with FISA and all of that,

1260
01:07:44,720 --> 01:07:48,360
Speaker 1: Obama with his executive orders, Biden with what he did.

1261
01:07:49,240 --> 01:07:52,840
Speaker 1: You know, it seems as if the only way these

1262
01:07:52,840 --> 01:07:56,440
Speaker 1: swing voters actually get an idea of what a president

1263
01:07:56,560 --> 01:07:59,320
Speaker 1: does is not only how they amplify it, but how

1264
01:07:59,320 --> 01:08:05,240
Speaker 1: the opponents amplify it. And this strikes me as while

1265
01:08:05,320 --> 01:08:09,320
Speaker 1: maybe we as sort of more neutral Washington pros and

1266
01:08:09,520 --> 01:08:12,600
Speaker 1: understand how executive power works, and yeah, Trump really is

1267
01:08:12,640 --> 01:08:16,440
Speaker 1: consolidating power in a way we haven't seen before, because

1268
01:08:16,479 --> 01:08:19,439
Speaker 1: that accusation has been out there about, you know, from

1269
01:08:19,479 --> 01:08:21,800
Speaker 1: the right on Obama and Biden and from the left

1270
01:08:21,800 --> 01:08:25,400
Speaker 1: on Bush and Trump. It is not unusual to the

1271
01:08:25,439 --> 01:08:27,360
Speaker 1: average swing voter, is it.

1272
01:08:27,360 --> 01:08:29,480
Speaker 2: It's not. I think that's a brilliant observation.

1273
01:08:29,960 --> 01:08:37,040
Speaker 3: And having your actions defined by your enemies means that

1274
01:08:37,800 --> 01:08:38,280
Speaker 3: you don't.

1275
01:08:38,080 --> 01:08:39,559
Speaker 2: Necessarily have control of that narrative.

1276
01:08:39,720 --> 01:08:41,880
Speaker 3: It's obviously it's coming from the people who disagree with you,

1277
01:08:42,600 --> 01:08:45,240
Speaker 3: And it could easily be the case that the people

1278
01:08:45,320 --> 01:08:49,680
Speaker 3: who I talk to who are unhappy with Trump's executive

1279
01:08:49,680 --> 01:08:52,600
Speaker 3: actions are getting their news from sources that are amplifying

1280
01:08:52,600 --> 01:08:54,479
Speaker 3: that in a way that the people who aren't bothered

1281
01:08:54,479 --> 01:08:55,240
Speaker 3: by his actions.

1282
01:08:55,320 --> 01:09:02,160
Speaker 1: Yeah, yeah, reactually are you seeing is that a pattern

1283
01:09:02,280 --> 01:09:06,240
Speaker 1: that you noticed when you started this back in twenty nineteen,

1284
01:09:06,320 --> 01:09:10,080
Speaker 1: that in some way what breaks through is not just

1285
01:09:10,200 --> 01:09:14,000
Speaker 1: what is what the opponents are also talking about. That

1286
01:09:14,000 --> 01:09:16,919
Speaker 1: that's ultimately what breaks through is when you actually engage,

1287
01:09:16,960 --> 01:09:19,880
Speaker 1: when you get both positive coverage and negative coverage.

1288
01:09:20,560 --> 01:09:23,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's hard to chuck because the the I ask

1289
01:09:23,800 --> 01:09:27,400
Speaker 3: people every month where they get their news from traditional media,

1290
01:09:27,479 --> 01:09:30,640
Speaker 3: whether they get it from social media, and this splintering

1291
01:09:31,120 --> 01:09:32,960
Speaker 3: and the splintering has been around since the beginning of

1292
01:09:33,000 --> 01:09:35,040
Speaker 3: the project. People get their news from a variety of sources,

1293
01:09:35,080 --> 01:09:36,679
Speaker 3: but more and more of them are telling me they're

1294
01:09:36,680 --> 01:09:40,560
Speaker 3: getting in the news mostly or exclusively from social media sources.

1295
01:09:41,040 --> 01:09:45,640
Speaker 3: So I'm finding that the universe that they're in is

1296
01:09:45,720 --> 01:09:47,960
Speaker 3: just totally different from the news consumption that you may

1297
01:09:48,000 --> 01:09:52,280
Speaker 3: have or I may have. And the idea that someone

1298
01:09:52,360 --> 01:09:57,320
Speaker 3: never looks at a traditional media outlet ever, and they

1299
01:09:57,320 --> 01:09:58,880
Speaker 3: get their news from TikTok.

1300
01:10:00,280 --> 01:10:03,200
Speaker 2: For war broke out, my first inclination.

1301
01:10:02,840 --> 01:10:06,479
Speaker 3: Would be, let's go and see how NBC or CNN

1302
01:10:06,600 --> 01:10:13,120
Speaker 3: is covering it or Fox. Why how could you just

1303
01:10:13,160 --> 01:10:16,519
Speaker 3: be looking at TikTok videos if the United States is attacked?

1304
01:10:16,960 --> 01:10:19,320
Speaker 1: Let me realis tell you about something. Actually. I was

1305
01:10:19,400 --> 01:10:22,200
Speaker 1: involved with a conference called Trust in Media and where

1306
01:10:22,240 --> 01:10:25,479
Speaker 1: it's more about trust in the entire information ecosystem, working

1307
01:10:25,520 --> 01:10:27,880
Speaker 1: with a group of folks who come actually from the

1308
01:10:27,960 --> 01:10:30,720
Speaker 1: National security space, people that worked in the first Trump term,

1309
01:10:30,760 --> 01:10:34,439
Speaker 1: who were worried about the health of the information ecosystem. Right,

1310
01:10:34,439 --> 01:10:37,599
Speaker 1: this is bigger than just journalism, and so we had

1311
01:10:37,640 --> 01:10:40,360
Speaker 1: a presentation John Delavope, who's done a lot of gen

1312
01:10:40,439 --> 01:10:44,719
Speaker 1: Z and millennial work one of the notations and Adelman

1313
01:10:44,800 --> 01:10:48,439
Speaker 1: also did a presentation that when there is breaking news,

1314
01:10:48,640 --> 01:10:52,200
Speaker 1: when there is a huge story, that there is still

1315
01:10:52,240 --> 01:10:55,439
Speaker 1: a desire to go to a main a legacy news source,

1316
01:10:55,960 --> 01:11:00,400
Speaker 1: and that even among Gen Z or millennials, the only

1317
01:11:00,760 --> 01:11:03,240
Speaker 1: almost the one time that they will check into those

1318
01:11:03,240 --> 01:11:07,799
Speaker 1: sources is if something big is happening, right, a big moment,

1319
01:11:07,840 --> 01:11:09,680
Speaker 1: They think, oh, I better go check that out. Right,

1320
01:11:09,720 --> 01:11:13,280
Speaker 1: there's a shooting or there's a storm or something like that.

1321
01:11:13,400 --> 01:11:17,840
Speaker 1: So it's not all TikTok yet, right, I mean I was.

1322
01:11:18,479 --> 01:11:24,200
Speaker 1: I was oddly reassured that younger folks who are almost

1323
01:11:24,520 --> 01:11:28,400
Speaker 1: mostly getting their stuff and essentially curating their own media

1324
01:11:28,439 --> 01:11:30,479
Speaker 1: is what I call it, it's self curation. Some of

1325
01:11:30,520 --> 01:11:33,479
Speaker 1: it is legacy, but they don't know that it's legacy, right.

1326
01:11:33,640 --> 01:11:37,200
Speaker 1: They follow somebody specifically who just happens to work at

1327
01:11:37,200 --> 01:11:38,320
Speaker 1: a legacy media company.

1328
01:11:38,400 --> 01:11:38,519
Speaker 4: Right.

1329
01:11:38,880 --> 01:11:43,000
Speaker 1: But I thought that was interesting, So I take your

1330
01:11:43,040 --> 01:11:45,439
Speaker 1: point there. But it does feel like when the chips

1331
01:11:45,439 --> 01:11:48,720
Speaker 1: are down, they think, oh, those big companies have the

1332
01:11:48,800 --> 01:11:51,760
Speaker 1: resources to do live reporting right now. Right, there's still

1333
01:11:51,760 --> 01:11:52,840
Speaker 1: that perception out there.

1334
01:11:52,920 --> 01:11:54,479
Speaker 3: Yeah, I guess that question is how often does that

1335
01:11:54,560 --> 01:11:57,200
Speaker 3: happen given their lack of knowledge of all the things

1336
01:11:57,200 --> 01:11:59,479
Speaker 3: that Biden did for four years that were widely covered

1337
01:11:59,479 --> 01:12:03,840
Speaker 3: when they have that's why, and particularly Chuck, the things

1338
01:12:03,840 --> 01:12:07,280
Speaker 3: that get missed by my swing voters are process related things,

1339
01:12:08,120 --> 01:12:11,559
Speaker 3: legislation getting passed in Congress, things being signed into law,

1340
01:12:11,880 --> 01:12:14,600
Speaker 3: and emotional hearings. That's as though they never happened for

1341
01:12:14,680 --> 01:12:17,559
Speaker 3: most of these folks. All right, well, here's I'm gonna

1342
01:12:17,680 --> 01:12:20,760
Speaker 3: the last clip we're going to play. Here is a

1343
01:12:20,880 --> 01:12:22,479
Speaker 3: it's a this is this?

1344
01:12:22,600 --> 01:12:25,120
Speaker 1: To me? Is the probably one of your favorite questions

1345
01:12:25,120 --> 01:12:28,720
Speaker 1: because you just find out what is breaking through? You

1346
01:12:28,760 --> 01:12:31,639
Speaker 1: asked this each month? What question would you ask President Trump?

1347
01:12:31,680 --> 01:12:35,880
Speaker 1: If you could ask him anything? So let's play all

1348
01:12:35,920 --> 01:12:37,120
Speaker 1: the responses here.

1349
01:12:37,240 --> 01:12:42,439
Speaker 4: But ask why so many lies about everything?

1350
01:12:42,720 --> 01:12:44,960
Speaker 1: I would ask him what he's doing for the economy.

1351
01:12:45,040 --> 01:12:48,439
Speaker 10: That was a big part of his campaign promise, and

1352
01:12:48,560 --> 01:12:51,320
Speaker 10: I don't see any difference seen files.

1353
01:12:52,439 --> 01:12:54,120
Speaker 2: What about the Epstein files? What would you want to know?

1354
01:12:54,840 --> 01:12:55,879
Speaker 1: Why aren't they released?

1355
01:12:56,560 --> 01:12:59,560
Speaker 7: Might ask them how much controlled donors have over his decisions.

1356
01:13:00,120 --> 01:13:03,080
Speaker 4: I'd ask him how he managed to get the hostages

1357
01:13:03,160 --> 01:13:04,320
Speaker 4: out of Gaza.

1358
01:13:04,160 --> 01:13:07,960
Speaker 9: But ask what he thinks is the biggest threat to

1359
01:13:08,360 --> 01:13:09,519
Speaker 9: the United States right now?

1360
01:13:09,960 --> 01:13:11,439
Speaker 1: Why do you love Russia so much?

1361
01:13:12,360 --> 01:13:14,400
Speaker 4: Are you in the Epstein files?

1362
01:13:14,640 --> 01:13:18,479
Speaker 1: I would ask if you would handle January sixth different

1363
01:13:19,880 --> 01:13:21,240
Speaker 1: if he had the chance to, do.

1364
01:13:21,160 --> 01:13:23,559
Speaker 2: You really care about people and everything we're going through?

1365
01:13:24,160 --> 01:13:27,640
Speaker 10: Will he ever learn to not attack every person that

1366
01:13:27,760 --> 01:13:28,800
Speaker 10: disagrees with him?

1367
01:13:29,360 --> 01:13:33,439
Speaker 6: Is there a way to benefit financially him and his

1368
01:13:33,640 --> 01:13:36,280
Speaker 6: billionaire buddies without attacking the poor?

1369
01:13:37,240 --> 01:13:45,200
Speaker 1: All right, let's see Epstein shows up once twice, three times?

1370
01:13:47,640 --> 01:13:52,600
Speaker 1: That's interesting. What breaks through that Epstein broke through a

1371
01:13:52,640 --> 01:13:57,280
Speaker 1: little bit of Russia campaign donor stuff? What shocked you?

1372
01:13:58,120 --> 01:14:00,320
Speaker 3: So here's what I take away from this exercise. This

1373
01:14:00,360 --> 01:14:03,240
Speaker 3: has been happening month over a month. So I in

1374
01:14:03,320 --> 01:14:06,640
Speaker 3: this group, I think I mentioned six basically approve of

1375
01:14:06,640 --> 01:14:08,280
Speaker 3: Trump's actions in office.

1376
01:14:08,320 --> 01:14:09,280
Speaker 2: Seven disapproved.

1377
01:14:09,760 --> 01:14:13,280
Speaker 1: It's about the ratio we're on, right, It's about that, right,

1378
01:14:13,320 --> 01:14:16,640
Speaker 1: it's like a forty five fifty five ratio, depending on

1379
01:14:16,640 --> 01:14:18,280
Speaker 1: the all you use exactly.

1380
01:14:18,400 --> 01:14:22,759
Speaker 3: But among the people who approve of what he is doing,

1381
01:14:23,280 --> 01:14:26,880
Speaker 3: they still made a number of very negative comments or

1382
01:14:26,920 --> 01:14:29,360
Speaker 3: ask negative questions when I asked them to come up

1383
01:14:29,400 --> 01:14:32,240
Speaker 3: with a question for the president so they could have

1384
01:14:32,240 --> 01:14:35,000
Speaker 3: asked questions like what makes you such an effective leader?

1385
01:14:35,360 --> 01:14:38,120
Speaker 3: Or how did you broker such an amazing deal in

1386
01:14:38,160 --> 01:14:40,920
Speaker 3: the Middle East? Go down all these lists of questions

1387
01:14:40,960 --> 01:14:44,120
Speaker 3: that would have been indicative of an appreciation and advertis one,

1388
01:14:44,240 --> 01:14:46,600
Speaker 3: I mean one, Carolyn m I'd ask him how he

1389
01:14:46,640 --> 01:14:48,760
Speaker 3: managed to get the hostages out of Gaza.

1390
01:14:49,080 --> 01:14:51,320
Speaker 1: Feels like a supportive type of question.

1391
01:14:51,600 --> 01:14:55,080
Speaker 3: That's one, But the rest of them are all basically negative.

1392
01:14:55,520 --> 01:14:58,360
Speaker 3: And to me, what it suggests is that while they

1393
01:14:58,520 --> 01:15:01,479
Speaker 3: approve of his performance in office, among those who approve,

1394
01:15:01,800 --> 01:15:08,120
Speaker 3: there are still very significant lingering doubts and it's almost

1395
01:15:08,160 --> 01:15:10,120
Speaker 3: like a make me a bee line to their psyche

1396
01:15:10,200 --> 01:15:12,760
Speaker 3: when it comes to how they feel about Trump. Well,

1397
01:15:12,800 --> 01:15:18,920
Speaker 3: what question would you ask him?

1398
01:15:19,280 --> 01:15:21,559
Speaker 1: If I were a Democratic strategy, you're trying to figure

1399
01:15:21,560 --> 01:15:23,479
Speaker 1: out how do I win over these voters. I sit

1400
01:15:23,520 --> 01:15:26,360
Speaker 1: here and I look at these questions, and I'm sure

1401
01:15:26,400 --> 01:15:27,920
Speaker 1: I think I can do this with every one of

1402
01:15:27,960 --> 01:15:30,160
Speaker 1: your proofs, and I'd be like, oh my god. They

1403
01:15:30,200 --> 01:15:32,880
Speaker 1: know everything I would use against him. They know he's

1404
01:15:32,920 --> 01:15:34,599
Speaker 1: kind of in the hands of Russia, they know he's

1405
01:15:34,640 --> 01:15:36,960
Speaker 1: kind of in the hands of big rich people. They

1406
01:15:37,040 --> 01:15:39,200
Speaker 1: know all these things, and they vote for him anyway,

1407
01:15:40,080 --> 01:15:43,120
Speaker 1: What would you tell a client that thought, well, these

1408
01:15:43,160 --> 01:15:45,320
Speaker 1: people must not know these things, and it's like, oh, no,

1409
01:15:45,439 --> 01:15:48,720
Speaker 1: they do, and they don't approve of them either, but

1410
01:15:48,840 --> 01:15:52,320
Speaker 1: they still voted for him. What do you take away

1411
01:15:52,360 --> 01:15:52,680
Speaker 1: from that?

1412
01:15:55,600 --> 01:16:00,160
Speaker 3: Well, what I take away from that is that a

1413
01:16:00,200 --> 01:16:05,000
Speaker 3: lot of their focus is on things that they say

1414
01:16:05,000 --> 01:16:08,360
Speaker 3: when you ask them about it matters somewhat, but don't

1415
01:16:08,400 --> 01:16:11,040
Speaker 3: get to the nub of what really is bothering them

1416
01:16:11,560 --> 01:16:14,680
Speaker 3: and what is bothering them the most right now, if

1417
01:16:14,680 --> 01:16:17,680
Speaker 3: I had to broadly generalize among those people who are struggling,

1418
01:16:18,320 --> 01:16:23,519
Speaker 3: is his performance on the economy and the idea that

1419
01:16:23,600 --> 01:16:26,639
Speaker 3: he is a billionaire who promised to get inflation under

1420
01:16:26,680 --> 01:16:29,800
Speaker 3: control and they're still struggling to make ends meet.

1421
01:16:30,640 --> 01:16:31,920
Speaker 2: Go back to the thing we were talking.

1422
01:16:31,720 --> 01:16:33,760
Speaker 3: About earlier, on the economy and how that is sort

1423
01:16:33,760 --> 01:16:38,400
Speaker 3: of the traditional issue that regulates how people feel the

1424
01:16:38,479 --> 01:16:42,680
Speaker 3: economy comes up organically in the conversations. Chuck when I

1425
01:16:42,760 --> 01:16:44,760
Speaker 3: ask them, what issue the.

1426
01:16:44,720 --> 01:16:46,200
Speaker 1: Only issue that comes up organically?

1427
01:16:47,280 --> 01:16:48,400
Speaker 2: It's not the only one.

1428
01:16:49,120 --> 01:16:52,679
Speaker 3: Immigration comes up, mostly in an approving way, but sort

1429
01:16:52,720 --> 01:16:55,200
Speaker 3: of often at times, I like what he's doing, I

1430
01:16:55,960 --> 01:16:57,280
Speaker 3: don't like how he's doing it.

1431
01:16:57,439 --> 01:17:00,360
Speaker 1: That is the theme of most of these groups. For me,

1432
01:17:00,479 --> 01:17:03,080
Speaker 1: that's what I always take away, and I'm always very careful.

1433
01:17:03,120 --> 01:17:06,160
Speaker 1: I'm like, you know, what democrats don't understand is voters

1434
01:17:06,680 --> 01:17:08,920
Speaker 1: like his goals. They don't like his execution.

1435
01:17:09,680 --> 01:17:10,800
Speaker 2: Yeah, they don't.

1436
01:17:11,080 --> 01:17:14,000
Speaker 3: The way I try to analogize Trump, people who have

1437
01:17:14,080 --> 01:17:18,080
Speaker 3: struggled to understand why people like him or approve of him,

1438
01:17:18,120 --> 01:17:18,760
Speaker 3: I should I'm.

1439
01:17:18,680 --> 01:17:20,840
Speaker 1: Just going to say, these people don't like them, but

1440
01:17:20,920 --> 01:17:24,919
Speaker 1: vote for him. This is different, right, we don't like them,

1441
01:17:25,240 --> 01:17:29,600
Speaker 1: and yet you know, it's like Aaron Sorkin wrote, you

1442
01:17:29,640 --> 01:17:32,120
Speaker 1: want me on that wall in deep dark corners at

1443
01:17:32,160 --> 01:17:34,160
Speaker 1: the parties you don't want to admit to your friends, right,

1444
01:17:34,240 --> 01:17:38,080
Speaker 1: Like it's the Jack Nicholson monologue from a Few good Men.

1445
01:17:38,320 --> 01:17:39,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, exactly.

1446
01:17:39,479 --> 01:17:41,639
Speaker 3: And so the analogy I use is a little bit different,

1447
01:17:41,720 --> 01:17:45,080
Speaker 3: is like a medical analogy. So the reputation that surgeons have,

1448
01:17:45,200 --> 01:17:47,600
Speaker 3: for example, of not being warm and fuzzy.

1449
01:17:47,320 --> 01:17:50,240
Speaker 1: Kind of jerky. Yeah, I know it all, it's god complex, etc.

1450
01:17:50,960 --> 01:17:51,400
Speaker 2: Exactly.

1451
01:17:51,439 --> 01:17:53,519
Speaker 3: But at the end of the day, if they know

1452
01:17:53,600 --> 01:17:56,839
Speaker 3: how to take out that infected whatever it's in your body,

1453
01:17:57,040 --> 01:17:59,559
Speaker 3: and they do that, right, who cares if they're you

1454
01:17:59,640 --> 01:18:02,080
Speaker 3: know what, I just I just want to make sure

1455
01:18:02,120 --> 01:18:04,599
Speaker 3: they can do the job that I hired them to do,

1456
01:18:04,960 --> 01:18:07,799
Speaker 3: which is in this case, for example, get illegal aliens

1457
01:18:07,800 --> 01:18:11,719
Speaker 3: out of the country, or push back on unfair trade

1458
01:18:11,720 --> 01:18:15,719
Speaker 3: practices from other countries. Those are the kinds of things

1459
01:18:15,720 --> 01:18:17,960
Speaker 3: that they're willing to tower rate a lot of his

1460
01:18:18,120 --> 01:18:20,160
Speaker 3: behavior in order to get the ends.

1461
01:18:20,000 --> 01:18:20,599
Speaker 2: That they want.

1462
01:18:21,080 --> 01:18:23,960
Speaker 3: And so that's why you get this response. But to me,

1463
01:18:24,080 --> 01:18:26,360
Speaker 3: you know, for a lot of the folks I'm talking to,

1464
01:18:27,680 --> 01:18:31,479
Speaker 3: the vote between Trump and Harris last year, to draw

1465
01:18:31,520 --> 01:18:35,400
Speaker 3: another analogy out, was like being a thirsty person who

1466
01:18:35,439 --> 01:18:39,479
Speaker 3: has to choose between drinking wheat grass juice and castor oil.

1467
01:18:40,240 --> 01:18:43,120
Speaker 3: You have to drink something because you're really thirsty, but

1468
01:18:43,400 --> 01:18:46,280
Speaker 3: whatever you choose is going to be unpleasant. It tastes

1469
01:18:46,360 --> 01:18:49,960
Speaker 3: like blah, right blah, and afterwards, having drunk it, you're

1470
01:18:49,960 --> 01:18:51,439
Speaker 3: going to think that I really have to drink that.

1471
01:18:52,120 --> 01:18:54,519
Speaker 3: And that's how they feel. It's not that they one

1472
01:18:54,600 --> 01:18:57,840
Speaker 3: was highly preferable to tell. It was two unpleasant choices.

1473
01:18:58,439 --> 01:19:01,479
Speaker 1: And the outcome is like to leave you in the bathroom. Now,

1474
01:19:03,120 --> 01:19:04,320
Speaker 1: where do we take this?

1475
01:19:04,479 --> 01:19:07,320
Speaker 2: Going? All the way? We stopping this right now yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah,

1476
01:19:07,560 --> 01:19:08,320
Speaker 2: hit the stop fun.

1477
01:19:08,520 --> 01:19:12,320
Speaker 1: Yeah. Let me ask one other question about these groups

1478
01:19:12,400 --> 01:19:17,840
Speaker 1: this year, and I assume any Democrats breaking through in

1479
01:19:17,880 --> 01:19:19,760
Speaker 1: a positive way to these voters.

1480
01:19:20,760 --> 01:19:20,960
Speaker 2: No.

1481
01:19:21,520 --> 01:19:23,880
Speaker 3: And I have to tell you if you if we

1482
01:19:23,880 --> 01:19:27,880
Speaker 3: were doing a little thesaurus dot com right now and

1483
01:19:27,920 --> 01:19:32,160
Speaker 3: typed in the word contempt and ask for every synonym

1484
01:19:32,200 --> 01:19:34,759
Speaker 3: for the word contempt, those are the adjectives these folks

1485
01:19:34,840 --> 01:19:37,200
Speaker 3: used to describe how they feel about the Democratic Party.

1486
01:19:38,320 --> 01:19:41,520
Speaker 3: Not only that, to your question directly, there's no Democrat

1487
01:19:41,560 --> 01:19:44,960
Speaker 3: on the horizon that gets them excited. Uh, they're not

1488
01:19:45,000 --> 01:19:47,679
Speaker 3: paying a lot of attention to the to the presidential race.

1489
01:19:47,680 --> 01:19:49,919
Speaker 2: In twenty twenty eight.

1490
01:19:49,400 --> 01:19:54,799
Speaker 3: I did show them a Gavin Newsom social media post

1491
01:19:55,000 --> 01:19:57,400
Speaker 3: mocking the president's style.

1492
01:19:57,800 --> 01:20:00,479
Speaker 2: They they thought it was not genuine.

1493
01:20:00,600 --> 01:20:01,960
Speaker 3: In other words, they thought it was real, like he

1494
01:20:02,000 --> 01:20:04,080
Speaker 3: had done it, but they thought he was basically.

1495
01:20:05,120 --> 01:20:05,559
Speaker 2: Taking the.

1496
01:20:07,080 --> 01:20:07,800
Speaker 1: Trying too hard.

1497
01:20:08,200 --> 01:20:10,200
Speaker 3: It was trying too hard. But also that only Trump

1498
01:20:10,240 --> 01:20:12,400
Speaker 3: knows how to do this well. Newsom is kind of

1499
01:20:12,400 --> 01:20:15,000
Speaker 3: faking it by doing it, by taking on the Trump style.

1500
01:20:15,040 --> 01:20:16,240
Speaker 2: And they saw right through it.

1501
01:20:16,680 --> 01:20:19,680
Speaker 1: So I think that's a great warning for people. I

1502
01:20:19,720 --> 01:20:22,960
Speaker 1: think the because I have some sources on the left

1503
01:20:23,000 --> 01:20:24,679
Speaker 1: to think, hey, I want to find my own Trump.

1504
01:20:24,720 --> 01:20:27,680
Speaker 1: I'm like, do you are you sure? I don't know

1505
01:20:27,680 --> 01:20:29,720
Speaker 1: if Americans want Trump light, and I don't know if

1506
01:20:29,720 --> 01:20:34,480
Speaker 1: they want to. Sometimes you don't want more a derivative

1507
01:20:34,760 --> 01:20:36,920
Speaker 1: of something you maybe only wanted to have once.

1508
01:20:36,960 --> 01:20:40,200
Speaker 3: Anyway, Well, and some would argue that Governor DeSantis found

1509
01:20:40,240 --> 01:20:44,040
Speaker 3: that out the hard way the Republican primary, Right, No,

1510
01:20:44,360 --> 01:20:45,960
Speaker 3: you know it.

1511
01:20:46,040 --> 01:20:50,280
Speaker 1: What people want is Trump's personality more than the policies. Yeah,

1512
01:20:50,360 --> 01:20:54,160
Speaker 1: And I think that's the that's the probably the hard

1513
01:20:54,560 --> 01:20:58,200
Speaker 1: the hardest thing for political strategists to accept in this

1514
01:20:58,400 --> 01:20:59,680
Speaker 1: in this current conversation.

1515
01:21:00,120 --> 01:21:02,080
Speaker 3: I gotta tell you, Chuck, I've been at the focus

1516
01:21:02,120 --> 01:21:06,240
Speaker 3: group business now for twenty four years. I've moderated well

1517
01:21:06,320 --> 01:21:08,280
Speaker 3: more than a thousand focus groups in the course of

1518
01:21:08,320 --> 01:21:11,840
Speaker 3: my career, and going back well before Trump was ever

1519
01:21:11,920 --> 01:21:15,679
Speaker 3: a nominee, ever on the political scene at all. I'm

1520
01:21:15,680 --> 01:21:18,080
Speaker 3: talking about two thousand and eight, twenty twelve.

1521
01:21:18,160 --> 01:21:18,559
Speaker 2: Whatever.

1522
01:21:19,200 --> 01:21:22,800
Speaker 3: I kept turing over and over again from people center right,

1523
01:21:23,160 --> 01:21:26,800
Speaker 3: we want somebody who fights. Republicans don't fight. They give

1524
01:21:26,880 --> 01:21:30,720
Speaker 3: up too easily. The Democrats are constantly all over them.

1525
01:21:30,720 --> 01:21:33,479
Speaker 3: The Democrats know how to fight. Republicans don't know how

1526
01:21:33,520 --> 01:21:37,360
Speaker 3: to fight, and Trump scratched an itch. He scratched the

1527
01:21:37,360 --> 01:21:39,760
Speaker 3: itch of somebody who's willing to fight for them.

1528
01:21:40,040 --> 01:21:42,720
Speaker 1: Well, now are the left that's that? Now it's the

1529
01:21:42,880 --> 01:21:45,839
Speaker 1: left that's complaining that Democrats don't know how to fight exactly.

1530
01:21:46,000 --> 01:21:47,959
Speaker 3: That's the thing I always found hilarious is that Democrats

1531
01:21:48,000 --> 01:21:51,160
Speaker 3: think that Republicans fight better. Republicans think the Democrats fight better.

1532
01:21:51,880 --> 01:21:54,800
Speaker 3: And I've heard this in groups, separate groups and over

1533
01:21:54,840 --> 01:21:56,680
Speaker 3: the course of years, and it's always amazed me that

1534
01:21:56,760 --> 01:21:59,240
Speaker 3: neither one has an appreciation for their own ability to

1535
01:21:59,280 --> 01:22:02,280
Speaker 3: fight and an overestimation of the other side's ability to fight.

1536
01:22:02,360 --> 01:22:06,320
Speaker 1: That's always so true. And ultimately, you know, it's whichever

1537
01:22:06,439 --> 01:22:09,360
Speaker 1: side is presiding over a better economy is the better fighter.

1538
01:22:09,479 --> 01:22:13,360
Speaker 1: It's funny that it works, right, It's it's it's sometimes

1539
01:22:13,439 --> 01:22:18,840
Speaker 1: that simple. Does anybody else pop positively forget Democrats? I mean,

1540
01:22:19,280 --> 01:22:23,200
Speaker 1: when you know, you know, is there is there admiration

1541
01:22:23,400 --> 01:22:25,280
Speaker 1: for Silicon Valley or skepticism?

1542
01:22:25,800 --> 01:22:26,520
Speaker 2: Is there?

1543
01:22:26,760 --> 01:22:29,599
Speaker 1: You know, is this rise in sort of you know,

1544
01:22:29,920 --> 01:22:33,639
Speaker 1: Steve Bannon and I had a I had interviewed Banned

1545
01:22:33,640 --> 01:22:37,000
Speaker 1: a few months ago. And you know, so he said.

1546
01:22:37,160 --> 01:22:38,639
Speaker 1: You know, I was asking him why he and Lena

1547
01:22:38,720 --> 01:22:44,000
Speaker 1: Khan have something in common, and his his thesis was, well,

1548
01:22:44,000 --> 01:22:48,559
Speaker 1: we're both skeptical when of consolidated power. And I thought

1549
01:22:48,560 --> 01:22:50,720
Speaker 1: that that was a pretty fair that that is what

1550
01:22:50,720 --> 01:22:54,240
Speaker 1: what ignites the Sanders voter and the Trump voter, is that, right,

1551
01:22:54,360 --> 01:22:59,040
Speaker 1: a bit of skepticism of the powerful institutions. Are these

1552
01:22:59,120 --> 01:23:02,000
Speaker 1: voters that are Are they the skeptics or are they

1553
01:23:02,000 --> 01:23:02,599
Speaker 1: something else?

1554
01:23:04,040 --> 01:23:08,439
Speaker 3: I wouldn't describe them as being They're definitely skeptical, so

1555
01:23:08,560 --> 01:23:10,639
Speaker 3: yes to that question, no doubt that they'll.

1556
01:23:10,800 --> 01:23:13,160
Speaker 1: Vote against They're not vote for us, right, they vote

1557
01:23:13,200 --> 01:23:16,840
Speaker 1: against there are? They feel like people that decided who

1558
01:23:16,920 --> 01:23:20,439
Speaker 1: not who they couldn't stomach as president, not necessarily voting

1559
01:23:20,439 --> 01:23:21,400
Speaker 1: for who they preferred.

1560
01:23:22,080 --> 01:23:22,360
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1561
01:23:22,479 --> 01:23:26,519
Speaker 3: I like to describe them as serial presidential monogamous. You know,

1562
01:23:26,600 --> 01:23:30,080
Speaker 3: but the terms serial data serial monogamous, you date one person.

1563
01:23:31,160 --> 01:23:33,439
Speaker 1: I was accused of that over the years. Okay, well

1564
01:23:34,720 --> 01:23:38,200
Speaker 1: I never could date multiple I never understood my friends

1565
01:23:38,200 --> 01:23:39,640
Speaker 1: who could do that. I'm like, I don't know, I

1566
01:23:39,680 --> 01:23:41,680
Speaker 1: can't do it. So I was a serial monogamous.

1567
01:23:41,960 --> 01:23:45,360
Speaker 3: Yeah, so these are serial presidential monogamous, meaning they dated

1568
01:23:45,920 --> 01:23:48,599
Speaker 3: George W. Bush, they got sick of him, they chose Obama,

1569
01:23:48,720 --> 01:23:50,760
Speaker 3: they got sick of Obama, they chose Trump, they got

1570
01:23:50,800 --> 01:23:53,320
Speaker 3: sick of Trump, they got they chose Biden. And then

1571
01:23:53,439 --> 01:23:55,160
Speaker 3: they some of them were so sick of Biden they

1572
01:23:55,160 --> 01:23:56,280
Speaker 3: actually went back to Trump again.

1573
01:23:56,320 --> 01:23:59,719
Speaker 2: Gave them a second chance. But they are there.

1574
01:24:00,560 --> 01:24:05,519
Speaker 3: Their loyalty to any presidential candidate or president is as

1575
01:24:05,560 --> 01:24:08,679
Speaker 3: shallow as as a tip of a pin.

1576
01:24:09,040 --> 01:24:11,200
Speaker 1: And it sounds like they're always looking for something.

1577
01:24:10,920 --> 01:24:14,400
Speaker 3: New, always, that's absolutely what they want. They are they're

1578
01:24:14,439 --> 01:24:17,720
Speaker 3: easily dissatisfied, easily put off. And then the thing that

1579
01:24:17,720 --> 01:24:21,040
Speaker 3: amazed me back in twenty twenty one was how quickly

1580
01:24:21,040 --> 01:24:23,120
Speaker 3: they bailed on Biden. You know, when I asked them

1581
01:24:23,160 --> 01:24:24,800
Speaker 3: how they felt about Biden. In the first three or

1582
01:24:24,800 --> 01:24:28,479
Speaker 3: four months, I feel, I'm feeling relief, I'm feeling proud,

1583
01:24:29,000 --> 01:24:31,640
Speaker 3: I'm feeling calm. And then within a few months it

1584
01:24:31,760 --> 01:24:35,559
Speaker 3: was like, yeah, I mean they just one thing, obviously,

1585
01:24:35,600 --> 01:24:38,040
Speaker 3: it is Afghanistan, the Delta variant, and then they were done.

1586
01:24:38,080 --> 01:24:39,400
Speaker 3: And for three and a half years he could not

1587
01:24:39,479 --> 01:24:42,960
Speaker 3: win them back. So they were merciless toward him. Some

1588
01:24:43,000 --> 01:24:45,720
Speaker 3: could argue that that was basically an unforced error on

1589
01:24:45,760 --> 01:24:48,760
Speaker 3: Biden's part. But these folks did never went back. This

1590
01:24:48,880 --> 01:24:51,760
Speaker 3: year very different every month. The number of people who

1591
01:24:52,080 --> 01:24:55,600
Speaker 3: are approving or disapproving of Trump is fluctuating endlessly, and

1592
01:24:55,640 --> 01:24:57,040
Speaker 3: there's no consistency from.

1593
01:24:56,920 --> 01:24:57,559
Speaker 2: Month to month.

1594
01:24:57,840 --> 01:25:00,000
Speaker 3: And I'll have some higher levels of approval one month,

1595
01:25:00,000 --> 01:25:03,960
Speaker 3: month lower levels, and next there's no seeming pattern in

1596
01:25:04,000 --> 01:25:06,639
Speaker 3: terms of what direction it's going. I can tell you roughly,

1597
01:25:06,680 --> 01:25:10,240
Speaker 3: since February, just under sixty percent say they still approve

1598
01:25:10,280 --> 01:25:14,200
Speaker 3: of the job he's doing. But that's again February's responds

1599
01:25:14,280 --> 01:25:18,679
Speaker 3: versus aprils, versus July versus now. So it's the timing

1600
01:25:18,720 --> 01:25:20,200
Speaker 3: when I asked it. I didn't ask all of.

1601
01:25:20,200 --> 01:25:24,759
Speaker 1: Them just in the last year anything consistent about people

1602
01:25:24,760 --> 01:25:29,880
Speaker 1: in his orbit. Kennedy, Vance, Rubio, and hag Seth are

1603
01:25:29,960 --> 01:25:34,160
Speaker 1: arguably the most prominent members in Trump's orbit. Christy Nome,

1604
01:25:34,320 --> 01:25:37,000
Speaker 1: maybe Stephen Miller. Do any of these folks pop in

1605
01:25:37,040 --> 01:25:37,599
Speaker 1: these groups?

1606
01:25:38,680 --> 01:25:41,240
Speaker 3: Most of these folks are not familiar with. Most of

1607
01:25:41,400 --> 01:25:45,439
Speaker 3: these people. I've asked about Robert Kennedy Junior a couple

1608
01:25:45,520 --> 01:25:50,439
Speaker 3: of times, and healthcare policy. They were split between approve

1609
01:25:50,479 --> 01:25:53,360
Speaker 3: of Kennedy, disapprove of Kennedy, don't know what he's doing,

1610
01:25:53,920 --> 01:25:57,400
Speaker 3: so it was kind of shallow. For those who do

1611
01:25:57,479 --> 01:26:00,479
Speaker 3: support they want to see America be healthy you again,

1612
01:26:00,560 --> 01:26:04,040
Speaker 3: so the MAHA theme is important to them, but they

1613
01:26:04,080 --> 01:26:06,559
Speaker 3: get very sketchy when you start talking about making it

1614
01:26:06,600 --> 01:26:09,320
Speaker 3: harder to get vaccinations and those types of things. They

1615
01:26:09,400 --> 01:26:13,400
Speaker 3: they're they're willing to go along, but just not as

1616
01:26:13,400 --> 01:26:14,360
Speaker 3: far as Trump is going.

1617
01:26:14,920 --> 01:26:18,600
Speaker 1: So if I were watching these focus groups and I

1618
01:26:18,640 --> 01:26:21,479
Speaker 1: wanted to help Bill McRaven become president, and when the

1619
01:26:21,479 --> 01:26:26,400
Speaker 1: presidency is an independent what would I what? What? What?

1620
01:26:26,400 --> 01:26:28,600
Speaker 1: What would my advance? What would your advice be to

1621
01:26:28,680 --> 01:26:31,920
Speaker 1: a I say Bill McRaven because he's my avatar of

1622
01:26:31,920 --> 01:26:35,320
Speaker 1: what a what a potential you know sort of uh,

1623
01:26:35,560 --> 01:26:38,360
Speaker 1: you know, mythical independent figure that that might be able

1624
01:26:38,400 --> 01:26:41,360
Speaker 1: to break through. I think somebody with a military background. YadA, YadA, YadA.

1625
01:26:41,400 --> 01:26:43,599
Speaker 1: That's my thesis. Whether true or not, it's a whole

1626
01:26:43,640 --> 01:26:46,920
Speaker 1: nother story. But if you were thinking about trying to

1627
01:26:47,000 --> 01:26:49,519
Speaker 1: run outside the two party system right now, because there's

1628
01:26:49,560 --> 01:26:54,120
Speaker 1: such deep sort of distrust of is there something to

1629
01:26:54,120 --> 01:26:58,040
Speaker 1: glean from these voters or are they are?

1630
01:26:58,080 --> 01:26:58,240
Speaker 3: They?

1631
01:27:00,160 --> 01:27:00,320
Speaker 2: Are?

1632
01:27:00,400 --> 01:27:02,960
Speaker 1: They just not gonna They're just not going to be

1633
01:27:03,000 --> 01:27:04,799
Speaker 1: They're just going to keep picking between the two parties.

1634
01:27:06,400 --> 01:27:07,280
Speaker 2: That's a great question.

1635
01:27:07,400 --> 01:27:10,400
Speaker 3: I'm not sure necessarily that they are rushing to have

1636
01:27:10,439 --> 01:27:15,599
Speaker 3: a third party alternative. When I asked about no labels

1637
01:27:15,600 --> 01:27:17,160
Speaker 3: a couple of years ago, when that was still part

1638
01:27:17,200 --> 01:27:20,800
Speaker 3: of the conversation, there was a hesitation there to get

1639
01:27:20,800 --> 01:27:22,840
Speaker 3: involved in those kinds of things, thinking that you'd be

1640
01:27:22,840 --> 01:27:28,640
Speaker 3: tossing the vote away. But you know, for me, I

1641
01:27:28,680 --> 01:27:31,360
Speaker 3: think they What I would encourage people who want to

1642
01:27:31,360 --> 01:27:35,679
Speaker 3: break through center independent like you're describing left or right,

1643
01:27:36,000 --> 01:27:38,400
Speaker 3: is I would try to be raising some issues that

1644
01:27:38,479 --> 01:27:40,600
Speaker 3: I know matter to people that are not part of

1645
01:27:40,640 --> 01:27:44,960
Speaker 3: the conversation right now. So, for example, when I asked

1646
01:27:44,960 --> 01:27:49,799
Speaker 3: about Biden's age, people would tell me, and I asked

1647
01:27:49,800 --> 01:27:52,920
Speaker 3: two questions, what is the ideal age for someone to

1648
01:27:53,000 --> 01:27:56,400
Speaker 3: be president and what's the oldest acceptable age for someone

1649
01:27:56,439 --> 01:27:59,200
Speaker 3: to be president? The ideal age was basically early the

1650
01:27:59,240 --> 01:28:02,400
Speaker 3: mid fifties. The oldest acceptable age was in the mid

1651
01:28:02,439 --> 01:28:05,320
Speaker 3: sixties on average. When I asked that, rarely do I

1652
01:28:05,320 --> 01:28:08,240
Speaker 3: get an age above seventy as being oldest acceptable. We

1653
01:28:08,320 --> 01:28:10,240
Speaker 3: now have a president who's almost eighty years old. We

1654
01:28:10,360 --> 01:28:13,439
Speaker 3: just had one who ended at eighty two. I would

1655
01:28:13,439 --> 01:28:18,000
Speaker 3: be talking about things like setting age limits for presidents

1656
01:28:19,000 --> 01:28:22,240
Speaker 3: as part of a constitutional amendment. I think that would

1657
01:28:22,240 --> 01:28:24,040
Speaker 3: be an important thing to do.

1658
01:28:24,320 --> 01:28:27,240
Speaker 1: You can break through with these with you that actually

1659
01:28:27,320 --> 01:28:30,400
Speaker 1: might connect with voters, I think after having process. I

1660
01:28:30,920 --> 01:28:33,479
Speaker 1: asked that skeptically because as much as I there's a

1661
01:28:33,479 --> 01:28:36,000
Speaker 1: lot of process things I'd like to fix about our democracy,

1662
01:28:36,560 --> 01:28:40,679
Speaker 1: it's hard to get mass interest in some of these things.

1663
01:28:41,040 --> 01:28:44,760
Speaker 3: I would say generally yes, and in the absence of

1664
01:28:44,920 --> 01:28:48,599
Speaker 3: having very old presidents for what for us could easily

1665
01:28:48,640 --> 01:28:52,160
Speaker 3: be twelve years of presidents over the age of seventy

1666
01:28:52,200 --> 01:28:55,320
Speaker 3: five or seventy seventy five, it's remarkable. I think in

1667
01:28:55,360 --> 01:28:57,920
Speaker 3: that context people might be you know what I'm done,

1668
01:28:59,240 --> 01:29:01,600
Speaker 3: and I think and the other thing I would say is,

1669
01:29:02,400 --> 01:29:04,920
Speaker 3: and again I'm going to ask this. I haven't gone

1670
01:29:04,920 --> 01:29:07,160
Speaker 3: that deep into it yet, but I plan to. Is

1671
01:29:07,200 --> 01:29:10,080
Speaker 3: the whole issue of pardons and having the president have

1672
01:29:10,360 --> 01:29:13,719
Speaker 3: unfettered pardoning power. I can tell you that the pardons

1673
01:29:13,720 --> 01:29:16,200
Speaker 3: from Biden as he left office and the pardon that

1674
01:29:16,240 --> 01:29:19,479
Speaker 3: Trump has has has given people since he took office,

1675
01:29:19,720 --> 01:29:21,920
Speaker 3: have enraged a number of these swing voters.

1676
01:29:22,439 --> 01:29:25,920
Speaker 1: You know, it's interesting. Corruption is always when you look

1677
01:29:25,920 --> 01:29:28,840
Speaker 1: at big swings that we've had in midterm elections in particular,

1678
01:29:29,520 --> 01:29:33,639
Speaker 1: corruption has actually always been one of the through lines.

1679
01:29:33,640 --> 01:29:35,720
Speaker 1: There's like be an economy and you know, because it's

1680
01:29:35,760 --> 01:29:38,000
Speaker 1: a way to Hey, they're so worried about their friends.

1681
01:29:38,000 --> 01:29:40,400
Speaker 1: They're not focused on your bottom line. They're so worried

1682
01:29:40,439 --> 01:29:43,760
Speaker 1: about this, Right, there's this you know, you so a

1683
01:29:43,840 --> 01:29:46,360
Speaker 1: through line of to me, if you're going to have

1684
01:29:46,360 --> 01:29:49,559
Speaker 1: a successful midterm, if you're the out party, you need

1685
01:29:49,600 --> 01:29:54,120
Speaker 1: a little bit of corruption messaging against the party in

1686
01:29:54,160 --> 01:29:57,200
Speaker 1: power in order to have some success. But I've had

1687
01:29:57,240 --> 01:30:00,200
Speaker 1: this thesis that the reason it doesn't work again to

1688
01:30:00,240 --> 01:30:05,200
Speaker 1: Trump is these voters already think the whole system is corrupt. Yeah,

1689
01:30:05,240 --> 01:30:10,439
Speaker 1: he's corrupt, but the entire systems corrupt. Every president does

1690
01:30:10,880 --> 01:30:14,280
Speaker 1: is a little bit corrupt, So they don't have the

1691
01:30:14,400 --> 01:30:19,759
Speaker 1: same gag reflex maybe that some of us do watching

1692
01:30:19,800 --> 01:30:20,559
Speaker 1: what Trump does.

1693
01:30:21,000 --> 01:30:24,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, I just wonder whether at the end of a

1694
01:30:24,800 --> 01:30:29,880
Speaker 3: second Trump term, folks who constantly tell me how mistrustful

1695
01:30:29,920 --> 01:30:33,639
Speaker 3: they are of politicians exactly as you just described, whether

1696
01:30:33,680 --> 01:30:38,320
Speaker 3: at some point something happens where they say, you know what, this,

1697
01:30:38,520 --> 01:30:40,559
Speaker 3: what we've just had in the last twelve years has

1698
01:30:40,560 --> 01:30:44,560
Speaker 3: not worked for us, and they react to it viscerally

1699
01:30:45,280 --> 01:30:47,840
Speaker 3: to the point where someone who's able to make this

1700
01:30:47,960 --> 01:30:50,720
Speaker 3: case is able to make it meaningfully and wants to

1701
01:30:50,720 --> 01:30:53,040
Speaker 3: actually put it at the top of the national agenda.

1702
01:30:53,360 --> 01:30:56,400
Speaker 3: I don't again, to me, this is going We need

1703
01:30:56,439 --> 01:30:57,880
Speaker 3: to see the polling on it. We have to see

1704
01:30:57,880 --> 01:30:59,840
Speaker 3: after the polling shifts and moves more in this direction

1705
01:30:59,880 --> 01:31:02,360
Speaker 3: of the course of Trump's second term. But to me,

1706
01:31:02,600 --> 01:31:06,760
Speaker 3: I'm getting a sense that if, if what Trump has

1707
01:31:06,880 --> 01:31:10,160
Speaker 3: promised doesn't come to pass for the people who voted

1708
01:31:10,160 --> 01:31:13,600
Speaker 3: for him, and that what Biden promised didn't come to

1709
01:31:13,680 --> 01:31:15,840
Speaker 3: pass for them when they voted for him and saw

1710
01:31:15,840 --> 01:31:18,479
Speaker 3: what happened in his four years, does that create an

1711
01:31:18,520 --> 01:31:23,519
Speaker 3: opening for your independent candidate or some reform minded R

1712
01:31:23,760 --> 01:31:25,960
Speaker 3: or D to say, you know what, it's time for

1713
01:31:26,000 --> 01:31:27,200
Speaker 3: a generational shift.

1714
01:31:27,320 --> 01:31:28,599
Speaker 2: I mean, you know what's going to happen.

1715
01:31:28,600 --> 01:31:30,400
Speaker 3: We're not going to have We're not going to elect

1716
01:31:30,400 --> 01:31:33,360
Speaker 3: another eighty year old president in twenty eight.

1717
01:31:33,520 --> 01:31:36,679
Speaker 1: We may elect our you know, youngest president ever type

1718
01:31:36,680 --> 01:31:39,320
Speaker 1: of mindset. Yeah, we have our first millennial president. We'll

1719
01:31:39,320 --> 01:31:42,519
Speaker 1: skip over gen X altogether. Right, let's start it on that.

1720
01:31:42,640 --> 01:31:45,360
Speaker 1: I know, yeah, but that's crude, Jenny.

1721
01:31:45,960 --> 01:31:46,680
Speaker 2: That's but the thing.

1722
01:31:46,760 --> 01:31:48,920
Speaker 3: But I guess the point is with that comes the

1723
01:31:49,000 --> 01:31:52,960
Speaker 3: opportunity to make changes and the other thing we're overdue.

1724
01:31:52,439 --> 01:31:54,920
Speaker 2: For if you really know, I just haven't started yet.

1725
01:31:54,960 --> 01:31:55,160
Speaker 2: Jill O.

1726
01:31:55,200 --> 01:31:58,600
Speaker 3: Lpor's new book on the Constitution is that you know,

1727
01:31:58,680 --> 01:32:01,280
Speaker 3: you know, constitutional change just happened in spurts.

1728
01:32:02,200 --> 01:32:03,679
Speaker 2: They they're clustered together.

1729
01:32:03,760 --> 01:32:05,880
Speaker 3: There are a few short periods of time where you

1730
01:32:05,920 --> 01:32:08,200
Speaker 3: get three or four amendments all at once, and we

1731
01:32:08,240 --> 01:32:10,679
Speaker 3: haven't had one of these in a very long time.

1732
01:32:16,920 --> 01:32:19,519
Speaker 1: And in fact, I mean this is sort of my people.

1733
01:32:19,680 --> 01:32:21,639
Speaker 1: You know, people ask me. I'm always say I'm short

1734
01:32:21,680 --> 01:32:25,200
Speaker 1: term pessimistic, long term optimistic. And this is the reason

1735
01:32:25,560 --> 01:32:28,800
Speaker 1: if you I think we're loosely in the in you know,

1736
01:32:28,880 --> 01:32:32,040
Speaker 1: in the in the repeat, you know, sort of repeating

1737
01:32:32,040 --> 01:32:36,479
Speaker 1: the early twentieth century, and you know, our response to

1738
01:32:36,680 --> 01:32:41,519
Speaker 1: consolidated power, big business, robber barons getting too close with

1739
01:32:41,600 --> 01:32:45,559
Speaker 1: government was women's suffrage, giving women the right to vote,

1740
01:32:45,560 --> 01:32:48,920
Speaker 1: direct election of senators, and the income tax. All of

1741
01:32:48,960 --> 01:32:52,760
Speaker 1: that was designed essentially to start to tackle this sort

1742
01:32:52,800 --> 01:32:56,800
Speaker 1: of you know, industrial barons that were sort of dominating

1743
01:32:57,520 --> 01:33:00,800
Speaker 1: our lives then, and arguably it's the last time we

1744
01:33:00,840 --> 01:33:04,479
Speaker 1: really did a lot of constitutional maintenance. Right. Yeah, we

1745
01:33:04,520 --> 01:33:07,120
Speaker 1: did the twenty second Amendment, you know, after FDR, and

1746
01:33:07,520 --> 01:33:10,719
Speaker 1: we gave we lowered the voting aged eighteen, but those

1747
01:33:10,720 --> 01:33:14,320
Speaker 1: weren't sort of societal ills type of thing, right versus that.

1748
01:33:14,600 --> 01:33:16,960
Speaker 1: I mean, you're right, we basically we've only really had

1749
01:33:17,000 --> 01:33:20,679
Speaker 1: three big periods of amending the constitution. This the beginning

1750
01:33:20,840 --> 01:33:23,920
Speaker 1: the Civil War and essentially right before the New Deal.

1751
01:33:24,560 --> 01:33:29,920
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I think if the frustrations that people are

1752
01:33:29,920 --> 01:33:34,080
Speaker 3: feeling need an outlet, and we can identify the things

1753
01:33:34,080 --> 01:33:36,840
Speaker 3: that are most angering and frustrating people, that we could

1754
01:33:36,840 --> 01:33:38,800
Speaker 3: easily see another one of those periods coming up.

1755
01:33:39,360 --> 01:33:41,720
Speaker 1: And you know, it's funny it, you know, we may

1756
01:33:41,720 --> 01:33:43,400
Speaker 1: be stumbling upon it. It's like if you're going to

1757
01:33:43,479 --> 01:33:46,000
Speaker 1: try to run outside the system, right, if you're going

1758
01:33:46,040 --> 01:33:48,400
Speaker 1: to run against both parties in some form, right, and

1759
01:33:48,439 --> 01:33:50,120
Speaker 1: you may do it within one of the two parties,

1760
01:33:50,680 --> 01:33:53,920
Speaker 1: or you run as a third party independent calling for

1761
01:33:54,000 --> 01:33:57,280
Speaker 1: this constitutional convention so that we can you know, keep

1762
01:33:57,320 --> 01:33:59,360
Speaker 1: seventy year olds out of the White House and you know,

1763
01:33:59,720 --> 01:34:03,760
Speaker 1: do campaign you know, you know, put campaign finance guardrails

1764
01:34:03,800 --> 01:34:08,280
Speaker 1: in here, maybe undoe presidential pardons. Create a pardon board,

1765
01:34:08,439 --> 01:34:11,519
Speaker 1: right so that there isn't you know, essentially we've decided

1766
01:34:11,560 --> 01:34:14,479
Speaker 1: it turns out that the founders were wrong on this one.

1767
01:34:14,880 --> 01:34:17,439
Speaker 1: Presidential pardon was a mistake, and here's a better way

1768
01:34:17,439 --> 01:34:19,800
Speaker 1: to do it. And you create almost a pardon board

1769
01:34:20,400 --> 01:34:23,400
Speaker 1: where you still allow for executive pardons, but they actually

1770
01:34:23,439 --> 01:34:25,240
Speaker 1: have to pass through a committee. It isn't just a

1771
01:34:25,280 --> 01:34:29,599
Speaker 1: singular person, which many states do. By the way, where

1772
01:34:29,720 --> 01:34:33,000
Speaker 1: we've especially where there have been scandals, there's a famous

1773
01:34:33,200 --> 01:34:37,200
Speaker 1: Fred Thompson became an actor because of a pardon scandal

1774
01:34:37,200 --> 01:34:40,400
Speaker 1: in the state of Tennessee in the seventies. They couldn't

1775
01:34:40,400 --> 01:34:42,160
Speaker 1: find the guy to play Fred Thompson, so they asked

1776
01:34:42,200 --> 01:34:45,040
Speaker 1: Fred Thompson to play himself, and his acting career took

1777
01:34:45,040 --> 01:34:48,000
Speaker 1: off from there. It's one of my favorite little little

1778
01:34:48,160 --> 01:34:53,479
Speaker 1: pieces of Hollywood political trivia. But boy, you know, talking

1779
01:34:53,479 --> 01:34:58,320
Speaker 1: with you on this it reform and corruption. You know,

1780
01:34:58,439 --> 01:35:00,360
Speaker 1: you still got to talk about the economy, but you

1781
01:35:00,479 --> 01:35:02,280
Speaker 1: might be able to break through a little bit with

1782
01:35:02,360 --> 01:35:04,800
Speaker 1: reforming and corruption. It sounds like at least that's what

1783
01:35:04,840 --> 01:35:05,320
Speaker 1: you're thinking.

1784
01:35:05,600 --> 01:35:08,280
Speaker 3: I'm thinking that and also tying the two together. Right,

1785
01:35:08,320 --> 01:35:11,479
Speaker 3: why are people struggling? It's because these vested interests are

1786
01:35:11,479 --> 01:35:14,240
Speaker 3: holding you back, They're charging you too much, They're making

1787
01:35:14,240 --> 01:35:16,760
Speaker 3: your life miserable in terms of customer service. I mean

1788
01:35:16,760 --> 01:35:19,080
Speaker 3: we haven't, Chuck, Chuck, We've talked for an hour now,

1789
01:35:19,120 --> 01:35:21,000
Speaker 3: we still having talked about AI, right, And.

1790
01:35:20,960 --> 01:35:24,880
Speaker 1: So it's so funny this is And maybe I'm going

1791
01:35:24,920 --> 01:35:26,759
Speaker 1: to give you a few ideas, or maybe you've already

1792
01:35:26,760 --> 01:35:29,240
Speaker 1: done this. So one of my favorite when I have

1793
01:35:29,280 --> 01:35:32,679
Speaker 1: an audience, I'll you know, when I start talking about

1794
01:35:32,760 --> 01:35:34,840
Speaker 1: people ask a question about AI, I'll quickly ask is

1795
01:35:35,120 --> 01:35:37,880
Speaker 1: I'll say, how many of you would pay extra to

1796
01:35:37,880 --> 01:35:42,000
Speaker 1: have a human handle customer service? And literally two thirds

1797
01:35:42,000 --> 01:35:43,600
Speaker 1: of the room, Well, I've done this now for the

1798
01:35:43,680 --> 01:35:46,400
Speaker 1: last few months, and there's always a majority of the

1799
01:35:46,479 --> 01:35:49,719
Speaker 1: room raises their hand. That a willingness to pay extra

1800
01:35:49,800 --> 01:35:53,920
Speaker 1: for a human being? It actually is. I am weirdly

1801
01:35:54,000 --> 01:35:58,000
Speaker 1: optimistic about the aiifification of the Internet because it may

1802
01:35:58,080 --> 01:36:00,479
Speaker 1: be the thing that gets us outside of our screens.

1803
01:36:01,200 --> 01:36:06,160
Speaker 1: The more online is artificial, the more we're going to

1804
01:36:06,200 --> 01:36:09,360
Speaker 1: crave humanity. We already are craving it in the customer

1805
01:36:09,439 --> 01:36:12,800
Speaker 1: service by my anecdotal, you know, And I imagine if

1806
01:36:12,800 --> 01:36:15,000
Speaker 1: you started to ask this in all your focus scripts,

1807
01:36:15,040 --> 01:36:18,160
Speaker 1: I imagine you get the same response. We hate some

1808
01:36:18,360 --> 01:36:21,840
Speaker 1: computer or robot thinking they know what we're talking about, right,

1809
01:36:22,000 --> 01:36:24,800
Speaker 1: like it just it just drives us nuts, even if

1810
01:36:24,840 --> 01:36:27,720
Speaker 1: the robot might have the better answer, right, It just

1811
01:36:28,000 --> 01:36:32,479
Speaker 1: we're human beings. So no, I'm convinced that you can't

1812
01:36:32,520 --> 01:36:34,760
Speaker 1: run for president in twenty eight without an answer to

1813
01:36:35,000 --> 01:36:37,000
Speaker 1: the fear of AI displacement.

1814
01:36:37,560 --> 01:36:37,840
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1815
01:36:38,040 --> 01:36:40,320
Speaker 3: I read your recent post about this. I thought it

1816
01:36:40,439 --> 01:36:44,000
Speaker 3: was brilliant in terms of how it's getting politicized. Analysis

1817
01:36:44,040 --> 01:36:46,360
Speaker 3: was absolutely spot on. Anybody who hasn't read it, I

1818
01:36:46,400 --> 01:36:48,439
Speaker 3: would ask you to post it with your show notes

1819
01:36:48,479 --> 01:36:51,360
Speaker 3: here because I think it's a great piece, really important,

1820
01:36:51,760 --> 01:36:55,080
Speaker 3: and I think whichever party figures this out first is

1821
01:36:55,160 --> 01:36:57,360
Speaker 3: going to have a huge advantage because the frustration. And

1822
01:36:57,400 --> 01:36:58,880
Speaker 3: I got to tell you, Chuck, I asked Swing voters

1823
01:36:58,880 --> 01:37:01,479
Speaker 3: about AI couple months ago. Yeah, and the thing that

1824
01:37:01,520 --> 01:37:04,160
Speaker 3: came up was the loss of humanity exactly.

1825
01:37:04,240 --> 01:37:06,280
Speaker 2: You're that's the biggest thing that scares.

1826
01:37:05,960 --> 01:37:11,320
Speaker 1: Them it, which again, that to me is gives me

1827
01:37:11,400 --> 01:37:15,960
Speaker 1: hope because we're going to crave in person. I think

1828
01:37:16,000 --> 01:37:18,519
Speaker 1: it's going to put a premium on in person again,

1829
01:37:18,880 --> 01:37:22,760
Speaker 1: it's going to put a premium on seeing things for yourself.

1830
01:37:24,479 --> 01:37:26,880
Speaker 1: In fact, I almost wondering, are we gonna have retail

1831
01:37:26,920 --> 01:37:30,760
Speaker 1: stores back where you don't necessarily buy the product there,

1832
01:37:30,760 --> 01:37:32,639
Speaker 1: but you want to see and touch the product before

1833
01:37:32,680 --> 01:37:34,679
Speaker 1: you order it online and have it delivered to your house.

1834
01:37:35,720 --> 01:37:36,040
Speaker 2: Yeah.

1835
01:37:36,120 --> 01:37:39,880
Speaker 3: Well, you're seeing this touch grass movement, right, people getting

1836
01:37:39,920 --> 01:37:42,639
Speaker 3: kids out and outdoors and touching the grass because touching

1837
01:37:42,680 --> 01:37:44,720
Speaker 3: their screens isn't real. Yeah, there's a lot of this

1838
01:37:44,760 --> 01:37:46,800
Speaker 3: stuff going on. I just to me, the question is,

1839
01:37:46,880 --> 01:37:50,640
Speaker 3: does how far is it AI able to penetrate the

1840
01:37:50,680 --> 01:37:53,880
Speaker 3: population because it's so useful to the people that they

1841
01:37:53,920 --> 01:37:56,719
Speaker 3: give up some of these more tangible things in reality,

1842
01:37:56,760 --> 01:37:59,080
Speaker 3: and that time will tell how that plays out.

1843
01:37:59,120 --> 01:38:00,760
Speaker 1: All right, let me get you out of here on this.

1844
01:38:01,880 --> 01:38:04,640
Speaker 1: One of my One of the things I lament is

1845
01:38:04,680 --> 01:38:09,559
Speaker 1: the loss of regionalism, meaning the suburb of Grand Rapids

1846
01:38:09,600 --> 01:38:11,599
Speaker 1: is no different than a suburb of Roanoak.

1847
01:38:12,240 --> 01:38:12,439
Speaker 2: Right.

1848
01:38:12,880 --> 01:38:15,920
Speaker 1: You know, people in Atlanta have more in common with

1849
01:38:15,920 --> 01:38:18,439
Speaker 1: people in Milwaukee than people in Atlanta have in North

1850
01:38:18,479 --> 01:38:21,240
Speaker 1: with people in Northwest Georgia et cetera, et cetera, did

1851
01:38:21,240 --> 01:38:25,360
Speaker 1: O world Wisconsin versus Milwaukee, et cetera. You are the

1852
01:38:25,400 --> 01:38:28,400
Speaker 1: seven swing states, you have the three Midwesterns, you have

1853
01:38:28,479 --> 01:38:33,920
Speaker 1: the two Western, and you have the essentially the two

1854
01:38:34,040 --> 01:38:38,920
Speaker 1: sun Belt. Any regionalism, you're just there anymore, Or are

1855
01:38:38,960 --> 01:38:46,000
Speaker 1: all these voters in somewhat you know, homogenized American suburbanites.

1856
01:38:47,400 --> 01:38:54,519
Speaker 3: Uh, They're mostly homogenized, with odd flavors that will come

1857
01:38:54,560 --> 01:38:56,200
Speaker 3: out at odd moments.

1858
01:38:56,640 --> 01:39:00,439
Speaker 2: So with Arizona swing voters, you'll still get a little

1859
01:39:00,520 --> 01:39:02,839
Speaker 2: bit of the Barry gold Water Ish.

1860
01:39:04,720 --> 01:39:07,360
Speaker 1: Arizona's got a little libertarian, a little more libertarian in

1861
01:39:07,400 --> 01:39:09,080
Speaker 1: them than most of the other states.

1862
01:39:09,120 --> 01:39:12,519
Speaker 3: Right, Yes, so you have more more of that with

1863
01:39:12,640 --> 01:39:15,600
Speaker 3: the Pennsylvanians, particularly the southeastern Pennsylvanians.

1864
01:39:15,720 --> 01:39:18,000
Speaker 2: Just a very low.

1865
01:39:17,920 --> 01:39:21,759
Speaker 3: Level of trust and belief in anything that anyone says, Wow,

1866
01:39:21,920 --> 01:39:24,000
Speaker 3: I've I've found that over the years in this region

1867
01:39:24,160 --> 01:39:26,120
Speaker 3: it's super super skeptical.

1868
01:39:26,160 --> 01:39:27,120
Speaker 2: I mean even more so.

1869
01:39:28,240 --> 01:39:31,840
Speaker 3: And I just think the Upper Midwest folks, particularly you know,

1870
01:39:31,880 --> 01:39:36,000
Speaker 3: the michigan the Michiganders, there's just more of a salt

1871
01:39:36,040 --> 01:39:41,840
Speaker 3: of the Earth type of conversation with them, they just everything. Well,

1872
01:39:41,880 --> 01:39:43,720
Speaker 3: they were not happy with Trump in March when I

1873
01:39:43,800 --> 01:39:46,960
Speaker 3: spoke to them about trade. Boy, I was shocked. At

1874
01:39:47,000 --> 01:39:50,080
Speaker 3: seven weeks into his administration, they were excoriating him on

1875
01:39:50,120 --> 01:39:50,639
Speaker 3: that topic.

1876
01:39:51,240 --> 01:39:54,439
Speaker 1: But Michigan of all places, right, which with when we

1877
01:39:54,439 --> 01:39:57,519
Speaker 1: were professionally growing up, you'd have thought, well, one state's

1878
01:39:57,520 --> 01:39:59,200
Speaker 1: gonna like tariffs, it's fish.

1879
01:39:59,080 --> 01:40:02,720
Speaker 3: Can Yeah, but I went back there and we did

1880
01:40:02,760 --> 01:40:05,680
Speaker 3: those in September and twelve out and thirteen approved of

1881
01:40:05,680 --> 01:40:08,240
Speaker 3: the job he was doing. So you know again, it's

1882
01:40:08,320 --> 01:40:10,719
Speaker 3: it's this odd shift. There's no consistency month to month.

1883
01:40:10,840 --> 01:40:13,519
Speaker 3: But to answer your question about geography, Yeah, it's just

1884
01:40:13,680 --> 01:40:15,320
Speaker 3: you get it's the flavoring.

1885
01:40:15,360 --> 01:40:16,719
Speaker 2: That's just a little bit. It's the seasoning.

1886
01:40:16,760 --> 01:40:19,559
Speaker 3: It's like pizza tastes different in different parts of the country,

1887
01:40:19,680 --> 01:40:22,720
Speaker 3: but it's still basically pizza wherever you go, and that's

1888
01:40:22,800 --> 01:40:23,679
Speaker 3: kind of the difference.

1889
01:40:24,520 --> 01:40:27,160
Speaker 1: Rich, I am such a geek for this stuff. I

1890
01:40:27,160 --> 01:40:31,559
Speaker 1: could keep going. This is terrific. I where could I know?

1891
01:40:31,600 --> 01:40:34,120
Speaker 1: You have a YouTube channel? Tell people where they can

1892
01:40:34,160 --> 01:40:37,080
Speaker 1: find these, because you do. You do put up monthly reports.

1893
01:40:37,400 --> 01:40:38,080
Speaker 2: Yeah, thank you.

1894
01:40:38,160 --> 01:40:40,479
Speaker 3: So the the easiest place to find us is a

1895
01:40:40,680 --> 01:40:44,840
Speaker 3: Swing Voter Project dot com. On that page you will

1896
01:40:44,840 --> 01:40:48,360
Speaker 3: find each month's highlight and that reel is on YouTube,

1897
01:40:48,400 --> 01:40:50,200
Speaker 3: so if you quick it, we'll just play within YouTube

1898
01:40:51,120 --> 01:40:53,679
Speaker 3: and I would encourage you to just watch those videos.

1899
01:40:53,680 --> 01:40:55,839
Speaker 3: And you can also sign up for a monthly update

1900
01:40:56,000 --> 01:40:59,559
Speaker 3: on the Swing Voter Project dot com page. So just

1901
01:40:59,600 --> 01:41:01,960
Speaker 3: go there, give us your email address. We will not

1902
01:41:02,040 --> 01:41:04,679
Speaker 3: sell you anything. There's nothing for sale. We don't charge

1903
01:41:04,680 --> 01:41:08,160
Speaker 3: for this stuff, and just join us on Swing Voter

1904
01:41:08,240 --> 01:41:09,200
Speaker 3: Project dot com.

1905
01:41:09,400 --> 01:41:10,680
Speaker 1: I'm telling you a whole bunch of them are going

1906
01:41:10,720 --> 01:41:12,479
Speaker 1: to be like kick, I want one hundred and twenty

1907
01:41:12,479 --> 01:41:13,759
Speaker 1: five bucks to give you my opinion.

1908
01:41:14,439 --> 01:41:16,639
Speaker 3: They're probably not swing voters though, but if they are,

1909
01:41:16,880 --> 01:41:18,960
Speaker 3: you know they can go to Sego by way, go

1910
01:41:18,960 --> 01:41:22,360
Speaker 3: to sago dot com if you want to register to

1911
01:41:22,360 --> 01:41:23,479
Speaker 3: participate in focus groups.

1912
01:41:23,560 --> 01:41:27,120
Speaker 1: Yeah, oh well that's nice. Do you do you still

1913
01:41:27,160 --> 01:41:33,519
Speaker 1: do uh quantitative polling as much? And you know how

1914
01:41:33,600 --> 01:41:35,880
Speaker 1: much does the focus group influence your questionnaire? Now?

1915
01:41:36,240 --> 01:41:38,640
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't. I really I don't. Personally don't do

1916
01:41:38,640 --> 01:41:39,360
Speaker 2: a huge amount of it.

1917
01:41:39,400 --> 01:41:42,519
Speaker 3: I'm actually associated with a remarkable company called Alpha Rock.

1918
01:41:42,840 --> 01:41:45,320
Speaker 3: Do you and I could talk about offline that has

1919
01:41:45,680 --> 01:41:50,320
Speaker 3: transforming the polling process and looking at longitudinality in questions

1920
01:41:50,320 --> 01:41:53,400
Speaker 3: in a way that point of time polling doesn't quick

1921
01:41:53,479 --> 01:41:57,120
Speaker 3: turnaround in polling. They have a tool called Ockham Gotckham's

1922
01:41:57,200 --> 01:42:00,679
Speaker 3: Razor that is just remarkable that a lot of trade

1923
01:42:00,680 --> 01:42:03,360
Speaker 3: associations and others in DC are using. So I've been

1924
01:42:03,360 --> 01:42:05,719
Speaker 3: working with them to try to get some quant around

1925
01:42:05,720 --> 01:42:10,120
Speaker 3: some of my focus grouping. But basically, uh, that world

1926
01:42:10,160 --> 01:42:13,320
Speaker 3: is getting up ended in a way that is well,

1927
01:42:14,200 --> 01:42:15,759
Speaker 3: deeply needed and well deserved.

1928
01:42:17,000 --> 01:42:19,640
Speaker 1: I feel like the best of you know, Like my

1929
01:42:19,720 --> 01:42:22,160
Speaker 1: favorite thing that our polsters at NBC when I was

1930
01:42:22,160 --> 01:42:24,439
Speaker 1: working with them used to do was I loved a

1931
01:42:24,439 --> 01:42:27,880
Speaker 1: good open end right where because to me, what that

1932
01:42:28,360 --> 01:42:31,439
Speaker 1: was was about helping you formulate a better question down

1933
01:42:31,479 --> 01:42:34,680
Speaker 1: the road. Absolutely, and that and that to me is

1934
01:42:34,760 --> 01:42:39,240
Speaker 1: you know, I've we've for for for years, would would

1935
01:42:39,479 --> 01:42:42,400
Speaker 1: would reword questions based on stuff we'd see in focus

1936
01:42:42,479 --> 01:42:43,280
Speaker 1: groups like yours.

1937
01:42:43,560 --> 01:42:45,760
Speaker 3: Yeah, Well, the thing's happening now You're alluded to at

1938
01:42:45,760 --> 01:42:48,400
Speaker 3: the very beginning so well and where we started, which

1939
01:42:48,479 --> 01:42:51,200
Speaker 3: is that this Oupham tool is able to do qual

1940
01:42:51,400 --> 01:42:55,320
Speaker 3: at scale. Yeah, and so they able to do basically

1941
01:42:55,439 --> 01:42:57,360
Speaker 3: one on one interviews not yet in a focus group,

1942
01:42:57,360 --> 01:42:59,120
Speaker 3: and one on ones an AI.

1943
01:43:00,640 --> 01:43:02,920
Speaker 2: Yeah, well well I thought about.

1944
01:43:02,640 --> 01:43:05,240
Speaker 1: It, but I know somebody who's trying it.

1945
01:43:05,760 --> 01:43:07,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, no, it's I think it's an important thing to

1946
01:43:07,680 --> 01:43:10,519
Speaker 3: try to do because if you can do this at scale,

1947
01:43:10,640 --> 01:43:12,439
Speaker 3: the insights will be so much richer than what I

1948
01:43:12,479 --> 01:43:14,440
Speaker 3: can find obviously with twelve people.

1949
01:43:14,520 --> 01:43:17,400
Speaker 1: So much so much more a thousand that are focus

1950
01:43:17,400 --> 01:43:20,479
Speaker 1: grouped rather than just you know, multiple choice.

1951
01:43:20,920 --> 01:43:23,879
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's remarkable and also be able to interpret the answers,

1952
01:43:24,040 --> 01:43:28,559
Speaker 3: ask meaningful follow ups, categorize the answers, which is what

1953
01:43:28,640 --> 01:43:29,360
Speaker 3: this tool can do.

1954
01:43:29,960 --> 01:43:32,120
Speaker 2: So this whole world is getting up ended.

1955
01:43:32,680 --> 01:43:34,599
Speaker 3: I've been joking that I'll be replaced by a bot,

1956
01:43:34,640 --> 01:43:37,120
Speaker 3: and my respondents will be replaced by bots, and it'll

1957
01:43:37,160 --> 01:43:39,920
Speaker 3: be one AI asking other AI questions and kicking out

1958
01:43:39,960 --> 01:43:41,080
Speaker 3: a report in ten seconds.

1959
01:43:41,120 --> 01:43:44,160
Speaker 1: And that's going to mean you know what, you're gonna

1960
01:43:44,200 --> 01:43:48,479
Speaker 1: end up doing creat bullshit correct, And then you're going

1961
01:43:48,560 --> 01:43:51,200
Speaker 1: to be going to an actual event in order to

1962
01:43:51,240 --> 01:43:54,240
Speaker 1: talk to actual people again, like we're probably about five

1963
01:43:54,320 --> 01:43:57,120
Speaker 1: years away from that. Let's go back to shopping malls

1964
01:43:57,120 --> 01:44:00,080
Speaker 1: and survey people that way, right, like in person with

1965
01:44:00,120 --> 01:44:02,639
Speaker 1: the clipboard. Yeah, everything old will be new again if

1966
01:44:02,640 --> 01:44:05,120
Speaker 1: we're not, if we ai AI it up too much,

1967
01:44:05,160 --> 01:44:08,120
Speaker 1: that's right, exactly Rich, this was fantastic.

1968
01:44:08,120 --> 01:44:10,280
Speaker 2: Thank you, my friend, Thank you chucking onor to do

1969
01:44:10,360 --> 01:44:18,720
Speaker 2: it all?

1970
01:44:18,840 --> 01:44:19,040
Speaker 10: Right?

1971
01:44:19,160 --> 01:44:22,439
Speaker 1: Are you public opinioned out? You might be a little

1972
01:44:22,439 --> 01:44:24,880
Speaker 1: bit So this is a perfect time to take a

1973
01:44:24,960 --> 01:44:35,280
Speaker 1: pause and let's go into the podcast time machine. Sorry,

1974
01:44:35,360 --> 01:44:37,080
Speaker 1: I always want to say there's some sort of blue

1975
01:44:37,439 --> 01:44:39,720
Speaker 1: It's sort of an old Scooby Doo thing in my head, right,

1976
01:44:39,800 --> 01:44:44,479
Speaker 1: you know where there was who anyway, But here's the

1977
01:44:44,520 --> 01:44:47,800
Speaker 1: subject matter. If you want to understand why US relationships

1978
01:44:47,840 --> 01:44:51,600
Speaker 1: across the Western hemisphere remained so uneasy, you have to

1979
01:44:51,640 --> 01:44:54,400
Speaker 1: go back to nineteen o three. That's right, We are

1980
01:44:54,400 --> 01:44:59,040
Speaker 1: going back to nineteen o three because it was this

1981
01:44:59,160 --> 01:45:03,759
Speaker 1: week in ninety three that the United States of America

1982
01:45:03,840 --> 01:45:10,040
Speaker 1: helped create a country called Panama. So, in fact, the

1983
01:45:10,080 --> 01:45:16,880
Speaker 1: title of this time cast toodcast time Machine segment, there's

1984
01:45:16,880 --> 01:45:19,800
Speaker 1: only one title you can come up with, if you know,

1985
01:45:20,280 --> 01:45:23,080
Speaker 1: if you know me at all, And I'll do a

1986
01:45:23,120 --> 01:45:26,320
Speaker 1: little shout out there to d Jones. A man a

1987
01:45:26,360 --> 01:45:31,920
Speaker 1: planed Panama. It's everyone's favorite palindrome. And in some ways.

1988
01:45:31,920 --> 01:45:35,200
Speaker 1: It's America's favorite myth, right. It's the story of bold leadership,

1989
01:45:35,240 --> 01:45:39,200
Speaker 1: big machinery, and destiny carved through jungle and rock. But

1990
01:45:39,400 --> 01:45:42,320
Speaker 1: underneath this heroic narrative is something darker. It's the birth

1991
01:45:42,320 --> 01:45:45,760
Speaker 1: of a pattern that has defined US relations with Latin

1992
01:45:45,800 --> 01:45:48,320
Speaker 1: America for more than a century. It's the moment when

1993
01:45:48,360 --> 01:45:52,160
Speaker 1: America learned how to build nations, the way we build infrastructure,

1994
01:45:53,240 --> 01:45:57,840
Speaker 1: engineered to serve our needs first, and there's later. And

1995
01:45:57,880 --> 01:46:00,479
Speaker 1: if you look at our posture towards Venezuela, the moment

1996
01:46:01,240 --> 01:46:05,479
Speaker 1: the mix of moral intent and strategic control. It's hard

1997
01:46:05,760 --> 01:46:08,160
Speaker 1: not to feel like we have seen this movie before.

1998
01:46:08,680 --> 01:46:11,679
Speaker 1: But let's go back. Let's go through the podcast history

1999
01:46:11,760 --> 01:46:14,040
Speaker 1: lesson of the day. At the dawn of the twentieth century,

2000
01:46:14,280 --> 01:46:18,120
Speaker 1: the United States, of course, was emerging from being a

2001
01:46:18,200 --> 01:46:21,400
Speaker 1: new nation to an empire. The Spanish American War. It

2002
01:46:21,439 --> 01:46:25,080
Speaker 1: turned us into a global superpower, and global powers always

2003
01:46:25,080 --> 01:46:29,639
Speaker 1: are looking to expand their power, to flex their muscle,

2004
01:46:29,680 --> 01:46:32,599
Speaker 1: if you will. Two potential routes, and at the time,

2005
01:46:32,720 --> 01:46:37,240
Speaker 1: we really really wanted to dominate shipping, and we needed

2006
01:46:37,280 --> 01:46:40,599
Speaker 1: a route through essentially from the Atlantic to the Pacific.

2007
01:46:40,640 --> 01:46:43,960
Speaker 1: There were two potential routes to create a canal. There

2008
01:46:44,000 --> 01:46:47,960
Speaker 1: was the Nicaragua and Panama. The French under Ferdinand de

2009
01:46:48,120 --> 01:46:51,040
Speaker 1: les SEPs He's the guy that did the Suez Canal.

2010
01:46:51,640 --> 01:46:56,320
Speaker 1: He tried Panama first, and he failed spectacularly. There was disease, corruption,

2011
01:46:56,439 --> 01:47:00,920
Speaker 1: bankruptcy killed twenty thousand workers. The dream itself seemed but

2012
01:47:01,040 --> 01:47:04,120
Speaker 1: the French company that he had that did this still

2013
01:47:04,160 --> 01:47:07,920
Speaker 1: held the rights to this little strip of land in Panama.

2014
01:47:08,120 --> 01:47:12,240
Speaker 1: Writes that a smooth talking engineer named Philippe Buna Verilla

2015
01:47:12,439 --> 01:47:17,840
Speaker 1: was determined to sell, so he lobbied Washington relentlessly and

2016
01:47:17,880 --> 01:47:22,719
Speaker 1: found a willing buyer in President Theodore Roosevelt. Let's just say,

2017
01:47:23,080 --> 01:47:27,080
Speaker 1: you know, we love Teddy, but he was one enthusiastic imperialist.

2018
01:47:27,240 --> 01:47:30,800
Speaker 1: In nineteen oh three, the Roosevelt administration cut a deal

2019
01:47:30,840 --> 01:47:35,240
Speaker 1: with Colombia, which then governed the territory now known as Panama.

2020
01:47:36,360 --> 01:47:39,240
Speaker 1: That deal, which was known as the Hey Haran Treaty,

2021
01:47:39,560 --> 01:47:42,080
Speaker 1: was named after the two negotiators of the said treaty,

2022
01:47:42,439 --> 01:47:44,720
Speaker 1: the Secretary of State at the time, John Hay and

2023
01:47:44,840 --> 01:47:50,519
Speaker 1: Colombia's envoy Toomas Haran, and the deal was this the

2024
01:47:50,640 --> 01:47:53,400
Speaker 1: US offered Columbia ten million dollars up front it's a

2025
01:47:53,479 --> 01:47:55,679
Speaker 1: lot of money at that time, right, and an additional

2026
01:47:55,720 --> 01:47:58,280
Speaker 1: two hundred and fifty thousand dollars a year for a

2027
01:47:58,400 --> 01:48:01,479
Speaker 1: very narrow strip of land to build the now. But

2028
01:48:01,560 --> 01:48:05,960
Speaker 1: the Colombian Senate refused to ratify this treaty. They wanted

2029
01:48:05,960 --> 01:48:08,800
Speaker 1: a better price, and they wanted more control of the land.

2030
01:48:09,479 --> 01:48:11,840
Speaker 1: While Roosevelt didn't like it. He didn't like that answer.

2031
01:48:12,439 --> 01:48:16,559
Speaker 1: He called the Colombians foolish and homicidal, and he muttered

2032
01:48:16,760 --> 01:48:20,680
Speaker 1: that he was being dealt with by bandits. So then

2033
01:48:20,800 --> 01:48:26,519
Speaker 1: Buna Verrilla, the French engineer salesman, whispered a different idea. Hey,

2034
01:48:26,520 --> 01:48:31,920
Speaker 1: mister President, what if Panama just stopped being part of Colombia.

2035
01:48:32,040 --> 01:48:36,519
Speaker 1: So November third, nineteen oh three, Okay, see where we're

2036
01:48:36,560 --> 01:48:40,040
Speaker 1: going here. It's this week, November three, today, actually, as

2037
01:48:40,080 --> 01:48:43,240
Speaker 1: this podcast is first airing, the anniversary of a small

2038
01:48:43,280 --> 01:48:48,680
Speaker 1: group of Panamanian separatists declared independence. Within hours, US warships

2039
01:48:48,720 --> 01:48:53,280
Speaker 1: appeared in the harbor, coincidentally blocking Colombian troops from landing,

2040
01:48:54,360 --> 01:48:57,599
Speaker 1: and by November sixth, the United States recognized the new

2041
01:48:57,680 --> 01:49:00,920
Speaker 1: Republic of Panama. In less than two later, Roosevelt got

2042
01:49:00,960 --> 01:49:03,120
Speaker 1: the treaty he wanted all along, But this time the

2043
01:49:03,160 --> 01:49:06,840
Speaker 1: treaty was called the Hey b Now Verilla Treaty, signed

2044
01:49:06,840 --> 01:49:11,400
Speaker 1: by you guessed it, Bunwverilla himself, a Frenchman acting as

2045
01:49:11,520 --> 01:49:15,400
Speaker 1: Panama's representative. Remember he was just a businessman that seemed

2046
01:49:15,400 --> 01:49:17,880
Speaker 1: to own the rights to build this canal, and he

2047
01:49:18,040 --> 01:49:20,800
Speaker 1: signs the treaty on behalf of this new nation. The

2048
01:49:20,840 --> 01:49:23,519
Speaker 1: treaty gave the US sovereign control over a ten mile

2049
01:49:23,560 --> 01:49:27,160
Speaker 1: wide canal zone in perpetuity, which, of course, eventually, during

2050
01:49:27,160 --> 01:49:30,479
Speaker 1: the Jimmy Carter presidency, we would hand back. And Roosevelt

2051
01:49:30,479 --> 01:49:34,000
Speaker 1: couldn't help but brag about it, right, he said, I

2052
01:49:34,040 --> 01:49:38,040
Speaker 1: took the Smiths. It was at once a great feet

2053
01:49:38,080 --> 01:49:41,320
Speaker 1: of engineering in human history, probably the greatest, and one

2054
01:49:41,320 --> 01:49:43,880
Speaker 1: of the clearest examples of America using its muscle to

2055
01:49:43,960 --> 01:49:48,200
Speaker 1: redraw someone else's map. The Panama Canal opened in nineteen fourteen.

2056
01:49:48,920 --> 01:49:54,160
Speaker 1: The world applauded. Latin America took notes. Now, this is

2057
01:49:54,200 --> 01:49:56,519
Speaker 1: a little interlude I thought I would include Is this where,

2058
01:49:57,160 --> 01:50:00,760
Speaker 1: Because I'll be honest, I was conflating the following Is

2059
01:50:00,800 --> 01:50:03,960
Speaker 1: this where? The term banana republic came from sort of,

2060
01:50:03,960 --> 01:50:07,080
Speaker 1: but not quite certainly the era, So a quick history lesson.

2061
01:50:07,080 --> 01:50:10,560
Speaker 1: The term banana republic actually comes from Honduras, not Panama.

2062
01:50:10,640 --> 01:50:12,960
Speaker 1: It was coined by American writer oh Henry in nineteen

2063
01:50:13,000 --> 01:50:14,960
Speaker 1: oh four, and it was in a short story collection

2064
01:50:15,040 --> 01:50:18,439
Speaker 1: called Cabbages and Kings. He had fled to Honduras to

2065
01:50:18,479 --> 01:50:21,040
Speaker 1: avoid an embezzlement charge himself, and he used the phrase

2066
01:50:21,080 --> 01:50:25,080
Speaker 1: to describe a fictional country on Churia that was small, unstable,

2067
01:50:25,120 --> 01:50:29,000
Speaker 1: and entirely dependent on American fruit companies. Well, the United

2068
01:50:29,040 --> 01:50:31,760
Speaker 1: Fruit Company, the Banana Company, if you will, a real

2069
01:50:31,840 --> 01:50:35,000
Speaker 1: US corporation, basically ran parts of Central America back then,

2070
01:50:35,520 --> 01:50:39,000
Speaker 1: the so called banana republics. That's how this all came from.

2071
01:50:39,280 --> 01:50:42,679
Speaker 1: This United Fruit Company built railroads, built ports, even influenced coups.

2072
01:50:42,960 --> 01:50:46,000
Speaker 1: The governments were nominally independent, but the real power lay

2073
01:50:46,000 --> 01:50:49,840
Speaker 1: with the investors themselves. So Panama didn't coin the term,

2074
01:50:49,880 --> 01:50:52,200
Speaker 1: but in many ways it embodied the idea because what

2075
01:50:52,280 --> 01:50:56,679
Speaker 1: happened in Panama, local elite seeking power, foreign capital providing muscle,

2076
01:50:56,920 --> 01:51:00,439
Speaker 1: and Washington enforcing the deal was the same exist three

2077
01:51:00,439 --> 01:51:03,479
Speaker 1: step model that would define all of our interventions for

2078
01:51:03,560 --> 01:51:07,360
Speaker 1: the next century. In Latin America, Panama was the first

2079
01:51:07,640 --> 01:51:11,680
Speaker 1: republic built to order, not for its citizens, but for

2080
01:51:11,840 --> 01:51:16,439
Speaker 1: American commerce. Now you must you may be asking yourself, well, jeez,

2081
01:51:16,520 --> 01:51:18,320
Speaker 1: now I know why half of a Latin American ever

2082
01:51:18,360 --> 01:51:20,800
Speaker 1: trust the United States. You know you do, don't you?

2083
01:51:21,280 --> 01:51:23,559
Speaker 1: So from that point on the region's politics became a

2084
01:51:23,560 --> 01:51:27,400
Speaker 1: pendulum swing between dependents and defiance. You'd have one generation

2085
01:51:27,560 --> 01:51:30,960
Speaker 1: strong man was the next generation's nationalists. You can trace

2086
01:51:31,040 --> 01:51:34,120
Speaker 1: this oscillation back and forth, pro us anti us, pro

2087
01:51:34,240 --> 01:51:36,400
Speaker 1: us anti us. We see it right now in Columbia.

2088
01:51:36,600 --> 01:51:38,320
Speaker 1: Right now we have a president who won by being

2089
01:51:38,360 --> 01:51:41,040
Speaker 1: a bit more distant from the US. The previous president

2090
01:51:41,080 --> 01:51:43,559
Speaker 1: won because he was pro us. And it goes back

2091
01:51:43,560 --> 01:51:49,080
Speaker 1: and forth. We saw it in Cuba in the twentieth century, Guatemala, Nicaragua, Chile, Argentina, Bolivia, Brazil.

2092
01:51:49,400 --> 01:51:53,280
Speaker 1: Each cycle shaped by how America's good intentions collided with

2093
01:51:53,320 --> 01:51:58,840
Speaker 1: its control instincts. It's the defining political rhythm of this hemisphere.

2094
01:51:59,400 --> 01:52:01,600
Speaker 1: You know, are we the bad guys? Are we the

2095
01:52:01,640 --> 01:52:03,760
Speaker 1: good guys? Do we care about the people or do

2096
01:52:03,800 --> 01:52:07,240
Speaker 1: we just care about the resources? Right? If you trust Washington,

2097
01:52:07,280 --> 01:52:10,479
Speaker 1: your country may prosper a little bit. If you resent Washington,

2098
01:52:10,520 --> 01:52:15,559
Speaker 1: you revolt, but you may suffer economically. So the Canal itself,

2099
01:52:15,640 --> 01:52:18,280
Speaker 1: in many ways, right was both the symbol and the

2100
01:52:18,320 --> 01:52:22,559
Speaker 1: seed of this pattern. So let's fast forward twenty twenty five,

2101
01:52:23,320 --> 01:52:26,080
Speaker 1: same story, sort of right, playing out right now with

2102
01:52:26,400 --> 01:52:29,120
Speaker 1: different props. Venezuela, once one of the richest democracies in

2103
01:52:29,160 --> 01:52:33,559
Speaker 1: Latin America, spent two decades spiraling under authoritarian rule, corruption,

2104
01:52:33,720 --> 01:52:37,479
Speaker 1: economic collapse. Millions have fled. It's part of the huge,

2105
01:52:37,920 --> 01:52:41,040
Speaker 1: the largest diaspora outside of any Right, there are more

2106
01:52:41,160 --> 01:52:45,439
Speaker 1: Venezuelan refugees lately than any other country creating refugees. People

2107
01:52:45,439 --> 01:52:48,000
Speaker 1: are just fleeing this country. And yes, the desire to

2108
01:52:48,040 --> 01:52:53,200
Speaker 1: help restore democracy is a real, legitimate and even moral goal.

2109
01:52:54,439 --> 01:52:56,120
Speaker 1: But how we pursue this goal is going to be

2110
01:52:56,160 --> 01:52:59,799
Speaker 1: a real test. We've used sanctions, covid AID, diplomatic pressure,

2111
01:53:00,120 --> 01:53:03,559
Speaker 1: lethal strikes off the Venezuelan coast justified. We're calling it

2112
01:53:03,600 --> 01:53:07,240
Speaker 1: this anti narcotics missions when it's increasingly clear we simply

2113
01:53:07,240 --> 01:53:10,439
Speaker 1: are trying to remove Maduro. The voters tried to remove

2114
01:53:10,479 --> 01:53:12,920
Speaker 1: him and they couldn't do it. But we're not making

2115
01:53:12,960 --> 01:53:15,080
Speaker 1: this the reason why we're doing it right, we're sort

2116
01:53:15,120 --> 01:53:19,600
Speaker 1: of we're trumps. He's creating, he's creating. We have a

2117
01:53:19,680 --> 01:53:21,439
Speaker 1: drug problem in this country. We have a federal problem

2118
01:53:21,439 --> 01:53:23,760
Speaker 1: in this country, but it's not from Venezuela. So he's

2119
01:53:23,880 --> 01:53:25,760
Speaker 1: using what we really a real problem that we have

2120
01:53:25,960 --> 01:53:29,799
Speaker 1: that's a derivative of Mexico and China, and instead using

2121
01:53:29,840 --> 01:53:33,920
Speaker 1: that as the pretext to go after Venezuela because maybe

2122
01:53:33,920 --> 01:53:36,240
Speaker 1: he thinks politically he could never just sell democracy as

2123
01:53:36,280 --> 01:53:38,080
Speaker 1: the reason to go help and get rid of Maduro.

2124
01:53:38,400 --> 01:53:42,200
Speaker 1: So we do say it at times, right, our motives

2125
01:53:42,280 --> 01:53:45,680
Speaker 1: or democracy, human rights, stability, it all sounds noble, but

2126
01:53:45,720 --> 01:53:50,120
Speaker 1: our methods, unilateral enforcement, economic coercion. It reminds the region

2127
01:53:50,479 --> 01:53:52,479
Speaker 1: of every time we've claimed to build something for them

2128
01:53:52,720 --> 01:53:55,640
Speaker 1: that it mostly was about serving us. Right, And how

2129
01:53:55,680 --> 01:54:00,120
Speaker 1: does Venezuela end? Right? Does it end with us? Is

2130
01:54:00,160 --> 01:54:02,720
Speaker 1: simply wanting more access to the oil? Look at how

2131
01:54:02,720 --> 01:54:04,639
Speaker 1: we go back and forth. We just want that oil,

2132
01:54:04,720 --> 01:54:07,280
Speaker 1: more access to their resources. Are we in it for

2133
01:54:07,360 --> 01:54:12,439
Speaker 1: the long haul to just actually provide independent democracy, not

2134
01:54:12,520 --> 01:54:16,400
Speaker 1: democracy dependent on the United States, but true independence, true

2135
01:54:16,560 --> 01:54:21,760
Speaker 1: independent democracy. But right now I do fear how we're

2136
01:54:21,760 --> 01:54:26,439
Speaker 1: going about. This is only reigniting the same cycle of

2137
01:54:27,479 --> 01:54:32,280
Speaker 1: resentment that develops right and it forms these nationalist movements

2138
01:54:32,640 --> 01:54:36,200
Speaker 1: that push out people that are pro democracy. So we're

2139
01:54:36,200 --> 01:54:38,920
Speaker 1: here the same one hundred year oscillation is back. Leaders

2140
01:54:39,000 --> 01:54:42,600
Speaker 1: run as reformers, they become populous, they start pro us,

2141
01:54:42,800 --> 01:54:46,240
Speaker 1: they end a skeptics, every demagogue, every strong man from

2142
01:54:46,280 --> 01:54:49,640
Speaker 1: Havana to Caracas, they've all learned to weaponize this history

2143
01:54:50,120 --> 01:54:52,040
Speaker 1: to tell their citizens, you may not like me, but

2144
01:54:52,200 --> 01:54:56,360
Speaker 1: at least I'm not them. I'm standing in between them

2145
01:54:56,400 --> 01:54:59,400
Speaker 1: truly taking over this country. Right at least I'm one

2146
01:54:59,440 --> 01:55:02,160
Speaker 1: of you. And that's something that I think we've got

2147
01:55:02,200 --> 01:55:05,600
Speaker 1: to be careful of as we essentially try to play

2148
01:55:07,080 --> 01:55:09,840
Speaker 1: try to play be cop here and how we're doing it.

2149
01:55:09,880 --> 01:55:13,000
Speaker 1: If we're essentially lying about why we're there, which right

2150
01:55:13,040 --> 01:55:17,160
Speaker 1: now we are with this drug pretext, it is not

2151
01:55:17,400 --> 01:55:19,920
Speaker 1: going to allow for this to be as stable as

2152
01:55:19,920 --> 01:55:23,360
Speaker 1: I think we think it is. So maybe here's the

2153
01:55:23,480 --> 01:55:25,920
Speaker 1: Palin Drum's other meeting. A man a planed Panama, One

2154
01:55:25,920 --> 01:55:28,760
Speaker 1: man's plan Teddy Roosevelt's built a canal and built a

2155
01:55:28,760 --> 01:55:32,160
Speaker 1: century of contradictions. It opened the world to trade and

2156
01:55:32,200 --> 01:55:34,560
Speaker 1: it opened a wound in the hemisphere that still hasn't

2157
01:55:34,560 --> 01:55:37,000
Speaker 1: fully healed. So if we want a different legacy in

2158
01:55:37,080 --> 01:55:40,160
Speaker 1: Venezuela or anywhere else south of the Rio Grand, we

2159
01:55:40,240 --> 01:55:42,880
Speaker 1: have to show that our plans serve the region's needs,

2160
01:55:42,920 --> 01:55:46,120
Speaker 1: not just our needs, because until we do, Latin America

2161
01:55:46,160 --> 01:55:49,880
Speaker 1: will keep reading our policies backward and they will still

2162
01:55:49,920 --> 01:55:55,520
Speaker 1: see a man a plan Panama. There's your history lesson

2163
01:55:55,640 --> 01:56:01,000
Speaker 1: for today and how the past is so connected to

2164
01:56:01,080 --> 01:56:11,040
Speaker 1: the present. All right, and now let's get to questions,

2165
01:56:11,160 --> 01:56:18,680
Speaker 1: Ask Chuck. First question comes from Damien B. Chambersburg, Pennsylvania,

2166
01:56:18,880 --> 01:56:21,080
Speaker 1: and Damien asks, I know we all hope that the

2167
01:56:21,120 --> 01:56:23,360
Speaker 1: old guard of the GOP will show a backbone to Mega.

2168
01:56:23,440 --> 01:56:25,360
Speaker 1: Do you think the recent comment by Ted Cruz and

2169
01:56:25,360 --> 01:56:28,360
Speaker 1: Mitch McConnell condemning anti Semitism in the party and actually

2170
01:56:28,360 --> 01:56:30,800
Speaker 1: addressing an issue we all knew was there since twenty

2171
01:56:30,840 --> 01:56:33,400
Speaker 1: seventeen might be a catalyst for others to stand up

2172
01:56:33,400 --> 01:56:35,960
Speaker 1: for more of the values and norms we know they support.

2173
01:56:36,200 --> 01:56:38,600
Speaker 1: You know, most of these members better than their constituents.

2174
01:56:38,680 --> 01:56:41,440
Speaker 1: Just curious if you think this is a blipper trend. Also,

2175
01:56:41,480 --> 01:56:44,520
Speaker 1: hearing your Ojeron. Impression made me think of the TV

2176
01:56:44,600 --> 01:56:47,320
Speaker 1: show Young Rock and the scenes where he was at

2177
01:56:47,320 --> 01:56:49,200
Speaker 1: the U. If you haven't seen it, you need to

2178
01:56:49,200 --> 01:56:52,040
Speaker 1: watch the one where he spends Christmas with Coach Ojeron.

2179
01:56:52,200 --> 01:56:56,360
Speaker 1: It's hilarious. I can only imagine. And that look. You

2180
01:56:56,720 --> 01:56:58,839
Speaker 1: now know why I have such a soft spot for Ojeron,

2181
01:56:58,880 --> 01:57:01,440
Speaker 1: because I consider my mind. I'm a boy. He's our Cajun.

2182
01:57:01,480 --> 01:57:05,720
Speaker 1: He's our Cajun Caine. If you will, I haven't seen

2183
01:57:05,800 --> 01:57:09,520
Speaker 1: Young Rock, I should I should be more loyal to

2184
01:57:09,560 --> 01:57:12,760
Speaker 1: the Rock because of his kingdom. I do have you

2185
01:57:12,760 --> 01:57:15,600
Speaker 1: know there is a rookie. The rookie card for the

2186
01:57:15,720 --> 01:57:20,680
Speaker 1: Rock is a Bumblebee. Was a Bumblebee set of Tuna

2187
01:57:20,760 --> 01:57:23,160
Speaker 1: cards was brought to you by Bumblebee Tuna and it

2188
01:57:23,200 --> 01:57:26,960
Speaker 1: was in a perforated sheet and you had like I think,

2189
01:57:27,200 --> 01:57:29,840
Speaker 1: I'm staring at it right now of the ninety one team,

2190
01:57:29,880 --> 01:57:32,680
Speaker 1: and there were nine cards in it. And I finally

2191
01:57:32,680 --> 01:57:34,680
Speaker 1: bought one for about three hundred bucks. I didn't have

2192
01:57:34,720 --> 01:57:37,000
Speaker 1: a Rock rookie. And the reason was only about three

2193
01:57:37,040 --> 01:57:39,240
Speaker 1: hundred bucks because these things go up really high. I

2194
01:57:39,280 --> 01:57:40,840
Speaker 1: was going to grade it. I was all excited and

2195
01:57:40,880 --> 01:57:44,360
Speaker 1: there was these scratch like light scratches that you couldn't

2196
01:57:44,360 --> 01:57:46,760
Speaker 1: see in the eBay picture, but you could see in there.

2197
01:57:46,800 --> 01:57:49,240
Speaker 1: So I have it. It's sort of my one homage

2198
01:57:49,280 --> 01:57:50,960
Speaker 1: to the Rock, but it's the Rock in his university

2199
01:57:50,960 --> 01:57:53,720
Speaker 1: of my uniform. It is the Rock rookie card, if

2200
01:57:53,720 --> 01:57:55,880
Speaker 1: you will, before is wrestling cards for anything else. The

2201
01:57:55,920 --> 01:57:58,880
Speaker 1: first actual card and these bumblebee cards used to come

2202
01:57:58,880 --> 01:58:01,800
Speaker 1: in the programs that you bought when you went to

2203
01:58:01,840 --> 01:58:04,760
Speaker 1: the football games. They'd do him as inserts, and I

2204
01:58:05,240 --> 01:58:07,400
Speaker 1: have the one with Mario Christabal. I never actually had

2205
01:58:07,440 --> 01:58:10,840
Speaker 1: the one forever reason. My mother would go to every

2206
01:58:10,880 --> 01:58:14,080
Speaker 1: game when I was in college and she'd save the programs.

2207
01:58:14,120 --> 01:58:16,920
Speaker 1: But for whatever reason, I misplaced the program that had

2208
01:58:16,920 --> 01:58:19,120
Speaker 1: the Rock sheet in it. But I do have the

2209
01:58:19,120 --> 01:58:21,880
Speaker 1: one with Mario Christball in it. Okay, but I digress.

2210
01:58:21,960 --> 01:58:24,400
Speaker 1: You asked the more serious question, which is are we

2211
01:58:24,440 --> 01:58:26,960
Speaker 1: going to start to see The answer is yes, And

2212
01:58:27,000 --> 01:58:29,800
Speaker 1: the thing is is that you know, I actually think

2213
01:58:29,800 --> 01:58:31,960
Speaker 1: we're seeing similar trends that we saw on the first term.

2214
01:58:32,000 --> 01:58:34,680
Speaker 1: Now I know that there are people out there going

2215
01:58:34,720 --> 01:58:37,000
Speaker 1: I can't believe more people aren't outraged about X, Y

2216
01:58:37,080 --> 01:58:42,520
Speaker 1: or Z. But if you look at guys like Roger Wicker, Okay,

2217
01:58:42,560 --> 01:58:46,000
Speaker 1: he's Chairman of Senate Armed Services, Mississippi Republican, nobody is

2218
01:58:46,000 --> 01:58:48,840
Speaker 1: more you know he this is a guy who's who

2219
01:58:49,320 --> 01:58:52,640
Speaker 1: is a conservative all right, definitely defines himself as a conservative,

2220
01:58:53,200 --> 01:58:57,240
Speaker 1: and he's very uncomfortable with the way the Pentagon is

2221
01:58:57,240 --> 01:59:00,440
Speaker 1: mistreating Congress. He's got a good relationship with the ranking

2222
01:59:00,480 --> 01:59:03,400
Speaker 1: member and Armed Services. It's just that is not how

2223
01:59:03,480 --> 01:59:06,080
Speaker 1: that they've he's ever operated. He knows that that isn't

2224
01:59:06,080 --> 01:59:08,600
Speaker 1: the way they operate, and he's you know, he will

2225
01:59:08,600 --> 01:59:12,040
Speaker 1: put out joint statements with the ranking members saying the

2226
01:59:12,040 --> 01:59:13,880
Speaker 1: Pentagon should be doing this and should be doing that.

2227
01:59:14,120 --> 01:59:17,720
Speaker 1: You've had Mike Brownd, the Republican centator from South Dakota

2228
01:59:17,760 --> 01:59:20,440
Speaker 1: not named John Thune, who's also done this every time

2229
01:59:20,480 --> 01:59:22,760
Speaker 1: and then and look at the small group of Republicans

2230
01:59:22,800 --> 01:59:26,720
Speaker 1: that said no to the to the filibusters. So it's

2231
01:59:26,880 --> 01:59:28,960
Speaker 1: you know what I always want to remind people if

2232
01:59:29,160 --> 01:59:32,000
Speaker 1: if if you're looking for Republicans to take up your

2233
01:59:32,080 --> 01:59:34,280
Speaker 1: issues and you come from the left or left of center,

2234
01:59:34,520 --> 01:59:36,440
Speaker 1: that you're probably not going to find. But if you're

2235
01:59:36,440 --> 01:59:39,040
Speaker 1: looking up for Republicans that are uncomfortable with how far

2236
01:59:39,120 --> 01:59:41,840
Speaker 1: Trump's taken things. You're going to find quite a bit right.

2237
01:59:41,840 --> 01:59:44,520
Speaker 1: Ted Cruz didn't like what Brendan Carr did on Kimmelin's

2238
01:59:44,520 --> 01:59:47,600
Speaker 1: speech and how he threatened used Mafio soo terms to

2239
01:59:47,640 --> 01:59:51,360
Speaker 1: do that. You've seen this, this appeasement by the way,

2240
01:59:51,400 --> 01:59:55,520
Speaker 1: Heritage is now appeasing the anti Semitic wing of the MAGA.

2241
01:59:55,640 --> 01:59:58,960
Speaker 1: And the thing is is this It is interesting to

2242
01:59:58,960 --> 02:00:01,760
Speaker 1: see the condemnation. Those of us who are not stuck

2243
02:00:01,880 --> 02:00:04,600
Speaker 1: in the hard left or hard right unfortunately, are very

2244
02:00:04,600 --> 02:00:07,400
Speaker 1: aware that these anti semitism wings of both parties have

2245
02:00:07,440 --> 02:00:10,080
Speaker 1: existed for some time. I love it. I have a

2246
02:00:10,400 --> 02:00:12,880
Speaker 1: friend of mine who said, I didn't realize how much

2247
02:00:12,960 --> 02:00:14,840
Speaker 1: of it was on the right. I knew it was

2248
02:00:14,880 --> 02:00:16,720
Speaker 1: on the left. And this person was a conser, is

2249
02:00:16,720 --> 02:00:18,960
Speaker 1: a conservative, and he goes, I'm now starting to see

2250
02:00:19,000 --> 02:00:20,640
Speaker 1: it on the right, and I'm like, dude, I was

2251
02:00:20,640 --> 02:00:22,840
Speaker 1: getting it from the right and the left anti Semites

2252
02:00:22,920 --> 02:00:25,400
Speaker 1: from the very beginning. I saw it during the rise

2253
02:00:25,440 --> 02:00:28,040
Speaker 1: of Occupy Wall Street and during the rise of MEGA

2254
02:00:28,120 --> 02:00:31,080
Speaker 1: and when Donald Trump came down that you know again

2255
02:00:31,480 --> 02:00:34,080
Speaker 1: I hear the words populism and the first thing I

2256
02:00:34,120 --> 02:00:36,200
Speaker 1: think of is here come the attacks on the Jews.

2257
02:00:36,400 --> 02:00:38,280
Speaker 1: And it doesn't matter if it's right wing populism or

2258
02:00:38,360 --> 02:00:41,800
Speaker 1: left wing populism, they all target the Jews first. It's

2259
02:00:41,800 --> 02:00:46,240
Speaker 1: almost like it's like in the populist playbook at times.

2260
02:00:46,280 --> 02:00:52,400
Speaker 1: And so you know, I am I think, and especially

2261
02:00:53,240 --> 02:00:55,360
Speaker 1: as the second term sets in and he sits there.

2262
02:00:55,360 --> 02:00:56,880
Speaker 1: It's what I said at the top, he said, sitting

2263
02:00:56,880 --> 02:00:59,720
Speaker 1: at forty three percent, you have growing numbers of independence.

2264
02:01:00,080 --> 02:01:04,640
Speaker 1: Don't like what he's doing with the democracy and thwarting

2265
02:01:04,720 --> 02:01:09,160
Speaker 1: the constitution. I just think that it's again, some of

2266
02:01:09,160 --> 02:01:11,680
Speaker 1: it may feel like soft pushback, not hard pushback, some

2267
02:01:11,760 --> 02:01:14,160
Speaker 1: of it, you know, all of those things. But it's

2268
02:01:14,760 --> 02:01:17,320
Speaker 1: it is happening. And I actually think this will just

2269
02:01:17,360 --> 02:01:21,040
Speaker 1: be a slow increase, especially from a guy like Ted Cruz,

2270
02:01:21,040 --> 02:01:24,640
Speaker 1: who himself would like to run for president and carve

2271
02:01:24,680 --> 02:01:26,800
Speaker 1: out and I think you'll you know what it'll be

2272
02:01:26,840 --> 02:01:31,400
Speaker 1: really interesting is when you know, I know that jd Vance,

2273
02:01:31,680 --> 02:01:34,240
Speaker 1: you know, is sort of vary. He's only one layer

2274
02:01:34,560 --> 02:01:36,920
Speaker 1: removed from the Tucker wing of the anti Semitic wing

2275
02:01:36,960 --> 02:01:39,840
Speaker 1: of of that party, and and he's you know, a

2276
02:01:39,880 --> 02:01:42,000
Speaker 1: bit more of an isolationist than Trump ever was, and

2277
02:01:42,040 --> 02:01:43,960
Speaker 1: all of those things right. Somebody said something that I

2278
02:01:43,960 --> 02:01:46,320
Speaker 1: actually agree with, which is the irony is the least

2279
02:01:46,320 --> 02:01:49,000
Speaker 1: Maga of the MEGA people are? Is Donald Trump? Right?

2280
02:01:49,040 --> 02:01:51,320
Speaker 1: In some ways the Mega is more pure than Trump

2281
02:01:51,320 --> 02:01:54,480
Speaker 1: ever was with MEGA, but it also is why he

2282
02:01:54,520 --> 02:01:57,040
Speaker 1: can move more than anybody else, and and Mega doesn't

2283
02:01:57,080 --> 02:02:00,280
Speaker 1: get upset as upset with him. It'll be interesting to

2284
02:02:00,280 --> 02:02:02,560
Speaker 1: see when you start to see Ted Cruz will go

2285
02:02:02,600 --> 02:02:04,680
Speaker 1: after Vance on things that he won't go after Trump on.

2286
02:02:05,280 --> 02:02:08,200
Speaker 1: And that's what I would expect to start to see

2287
02:02:08,240 --> 02:02:12,920
Speaker 1: more of in the next You're going to see more

2288
02:02:12,920 --> 02:02:14,400
Speaker 1: of that, I think in the next few months, not

2289
02:02:14,480 --> 02:02:16,840
Speaker 1: less of it next. And it's particularly over the next

2290
02:02:16,880 --> 02:02:19,040
Speaker 1: year or two, especially because Vance is going to be

2291
02:02:19,080 --> 02:02:20,360
Speaker 1: the guy they all want to knock down a peck.

2292
02:02:21,680 --> 02:02:24,040
Speaker 1: Next question comes from Bill as anyone conducted a focus

2293
02:02:24,040 --> 02:02:26,000
Speaker 1: group just on independent voters on how they are feeling

2294
02:02:26,040 --> 02:02:29,240
Speaker 1: about Trump. Johnson Congressional Democrats are Republicans. I really am

2295
02:02:29,280 --> 02:02:31,320
Speaker 1: enjoying your podcast and looking forward to them between now

2296
02:02:31,320 --> 02:02:34,800
Speaker 1: and November twenty twenty eight. Well, Bill, we stuck your

2297
02:02:34,840 --> 02:02:37,000
Speaker 1: question in here because now I look like I'm some

2298
02:02:37,000 --> 02:02:39,360
Speaker 1: sort of prescient person. But the fact is, I'm answering

2299
02:02:39,360 --> 02:02:41,760
Speaker 1: your question. Hopefully you've just listened to the episode with

2300
02:02:41,840 --> 02:02:44,600
Speaker 1: Rich Daal. This very episode that I answer your question.

2301
02:02:44,920 --> 02:02:47,760
Speaker 1: We feature not quite what you were looking for, but

2302
02:02:47,800 --> 02:02:51,240
Speaker 1: I would argue a focus group of voters that voted

2303
02:02:51,280 --> 02:02:53,920
Speaker 1: Biden in twenty and Trump in twenty twenty four, and

2304
02:02:53,960 --> 02:02:56,600
Speaker 1: the conversation I had with Rich here. These are I

2305
02:02:56,680 --> 02:02:58,360
Speaker 1: just so you know, my goal is to have Rich

2306
02:02:58,440 --> 02:03:01,880
Speaker 1: on once a quarter. Is the way Mark Zandy helps

2307
02:03:02,040 --> 02:03:04,839
Speaker 1: I think helps me and the rest of my listeners

2308
02:03:05,160 --> 02:03:08,120
Speaker 1: understand where the economy isn't headed. I think he's the

2309
02:03:08,200 --> 02:03:10,480
Speaker 1: least partisan voice you can find out there. He's just

2310
02:03:10,520 --> 02:03:13,160
Speaker 1: a data numbers guy. He sees it. He's got, you know,

2311
02:03:13,360 --> 02:03:18,080
Speaker 1: a consistency about him. Rich Tile's got the same he's

2312
02:03:18,120 --> 02:03:20,120
Speaker 1: sort of built the same way. He sees this through

2313
02:03:20,160 --> 02:03:22,280
Speaker 1: a prism of what is not what he wishes it

2314
02:03:22,280 --> 02:03:25,040
Speaker 1: would be. And Rich is going to become a regular

2315
02:03:25,320 --> 02:03:28,880
Speaker 1: contributor and a regular guest here, and we're going to

2316
02:03:28,880 --> 02:03:31,320
Speaker 1: feature these these more of these focus groups. So I

2317
02:03:31,400 --> 02:03:34,640
Speaker 1: hope I'm excited about it. Rich is excited about it,

2318
02:03:35,600 --> 02:03:38,720
Speaker 1: and I you know, we didn't we sort of hinted

2319
02:03:38,760 --> 02:03:40,480
Speaker 1: at it in our conversation there at the end, but

2320
02:03:40,560 --> 02:03:42,200
Speaker 1: we're we're going to try to put together something a

2321
02:03:42,240 --> 02:03:45,879
Speaker 1: bit more formal. Michael T from Chicago Rights always appreciate

2322
02:03:45,920 --> 02:03:47,880
Speaker 1: your insight. Almost all of my national political news I

2323
02:03:47,920 --> 02:03:50,960
Speaker 1: get from you. Now that's a little bit of pressure, Michael,

2324
02:03:51,000 --> 02:03:53,920
Speaker 1: I'm going to have to make sure I'm I'm not

2325
02:03:54,080 --> 02:03:56,800
Speaker 1: leaving too much stuff out right. Question for you on

2326
02:03:56,840 --> 02:03:59,000
Speaker 1: shutdown strategies, of them say they need a deal on

2327
02:03:59,040 --> 02:04:01,440
Speaker 1: ACA subsidies, but before they open the government, and Republicans

2328
02:04:01,480 --> 02:04:03,320
Speaker 1: they open the government and we'll talk. Why don't the

2329
02:04:03,360 --> 02:04:05,360
Speaker 1: Democrats agree to open the government for a week to

2330
02:04:05,360 --> 02:04:07,480
Speaker 1: give Republicans a chance to prove they will negotiate in

2331
02:04:07,480 --> 02:04:09,880
Speaker 1: good faith. If the Republicans then refuse to move on

2332
02:04:09,920 --> 02:04:12,760
Speaker 1: health care, the Democrats can refuse another bunch of votes. Michael,

2333
02:04:13,000 --> 02:04:15,200
Speaker 1: I would argue that's been sitting on the table for

2334
02:04:15,280 --> 02:04:18,760
Speaker 1: Democrats to do for a while. Republicans were only trying

2335
02:04:18,760 --> 02:04:20,959
Speaker 1: to keep the government open through the third week of November.

2336
02:04:21,760 --> 02:04:23,600
Speaker 1: This is why I think they've sort of made their

2337
02:04:23,600 --> 02:04:26,640
Speaker 1: point by the way government shutdown. The one polling question

2338
02:04:26,720 --> 02:04:31,000
Speaker 1: I didn't include in the top polling there from the beginning,

2339
02:04:31,040 --> 02:04:33,160
Speaker 1: So this is a good time to make note of this.

2340
02:04:33,880 --> 02:04:38,480
Speaker 1: In that poll on the shutdown. This is one of

2341
02:04:38,520 --> 02:04:44,080
Speaker 1: those instances where how you report the number will confuse.

2342
02:04:44,200 --> 02:04:46,200
Speaker 1: You may have seen the NBC News polls say a

2343
02:04:46,240 --> 02:04:50,120
Speaker 1: majority blame Republicans more than they blame Democrats. That is

2344
02:04:50,160 --> 02:04:53,320
Speaker 1: not how the question was asked by the NBC News pollsters.

2345
02:04:53,760 --> 02:04:56,920
Speaker 1: Let me read you exactly how the question was asked,

2346
02:04:57,040 --> 02:05:00,720
Speaker 1: and then you'll realize why. I think there's a little

2347
02:05:00,800 --> 02:05:04,720
Speaker 1: bit of you're gonna have to let's be careful out

2348
02:05:04,720 --> 02:05:10,320
Speaker 1: there and how you interpret the shutdown numbers. As you

2349
02:05:10,360 --> 02:05:12,240
Speaker 1: may know, President Trump and the Democrats, this is the

2350
02:05:12,280 --> 02:05:14,880
Speaker 1: exact question, and I think this will this is a

2351
02:05:14,880 --> 02:05:18,000
Speaker 1: good time to talk about the shutdown question. And I

2352
02:05:18,040 --> 02:05:19,720
Speaker 1: know that some of you may be listening to this

2353
02:05:19,760 --> 02:05:23,480
Speaker 1: now as a standalone quick little post either on Instagram

2354
02:05:23,680 --> 02:05:27,880
Speaker 1: or and sort of who's winning the shutdown? Is it

2355
02:05:27,960 --> 02:05:31,360
Speaker 1: the Republican the Democrats. Here's what we do know. Everybody's losing.

2356
02:05:31,480 --> 02:05:35,200
Speaker 1: We are losing the shutdown. America is losing on the shutdown,

2357
02:05:35,360 --> 02:05:38,800
Speaker 1: and essentially we're mad at everybody. Okay, but here's the

2358
02:05:38,840 --> 02:05:40,600
Speaker 1: exact warding of this question, which is why you can

2359
02:05:40,680 --> 02:05:43,720
Speaker 1: be very careful in how you report this question out.

2360
02:05:43,920 --> 02:05:46,560
Speaker 1: It has already been misinterpreted out there on social media.

2361
02:05:46,800 --> 02:05:49,280
Speaker 1: You've probably seen numbers that say, hey, more people blame

2362
02:05:49,320 --> 02:05:53,280
Speaker 1: Republicans for the shutdown than Democrats. Well, you can make

2363
02:05:53,320 --> 02:05:56,280
Speaker 1: that case because of the way NBC asked this question,

2364
02:05:56,320 --> 02:05:57,920
Speaker 1: which I think is a fair way to ask the question,

2365
02:05:58,240 --> 02:06:00,120
Speaker 1: And who do you think is more to blame for

2366
02:06:00,160 --> 02:06:03,600
Speaker 1: this partial shutdown? President Trump is a separate punch demot

2367
02:06:03,600 --> 02:06:06,680
Speaker 1: Republicans in Congress is a separate punts or Democrats in Congress,

2368
02:06:07,120 --> 02:06:09,840
Speaker 1: and then people volunteered President Trump and Republicans. So if

2369
02:06:09,840 --> 02:06:12,480
Speaker 1: you add up all the Republican numbers, you get fifty

2370
02:06:12,520 --> 02:06:16,000
Speaker 1: two twenty five percent say Republicans in Congress are to blame,

2371
02:06:16,160 --> 02:06:18,560
Speaker 1: twenty four percent say President Trump is to blame, and

2372
02:06:18,600 --> 02:06:21,360
Speaker 1: three percent volunteer did its President Trump and the Republicans

2373
02:06:21,400 --> 02:06:24,200
Speaker 1: are to blame. That adds up to fifty two forty

2374
02:06:24,240 --> 02:06:28,840
Speaker 1: two percent pick Democrats in Congress. So, as you see here,

2375
02:06:28,920 --> 02:06:31,920
Speaker 1: some people know it is. It is one of those

2376
02:06:31,960 --> 02:06:34,520
Speaker 1: cases where yes, you can say there are more people

2377
02:06:34,560 --> 02:06:39,880
Speaker 1: blame a Republican entity collectively Republican entities are taking more

2378
02:06:39,880 --> 02:06:43,480
Speaker 1: blame than the Democrats, but it is this is not

2379
02:06:44,000 --> 02:06:46,000
Speaker 1: apples to apples, and you have to be careful this.

2380
02:06:46,200 --> 02:06:48,720
Speaker 1: We didn't ask is it a two way on this?

2381
02:06:48,840 --> 02:06:51,400
Speaker 1: And perhaps maybe they should have asked a two way?

2382
02:06:51,720 --> 02:06:53,760
Speaker 1: Do you blame Republicans more for this? Democrats? But it

2383
02:06:53,800 --> 02:06:57,280
Speaker 1: is hard because the president is his own entity and

2384
02:06:57,360 --> 02:06:59,320
Speaker 1: not just this president. Every president in some ways of

2385
02:06:59,360 --> 02:07:01,720
Speaker 1: their own entity on this. Maybe if you asked a

2386
02:07:01,760 --> 02:07:04,200
Speaker 1: fourth if I added a fourth punch here, I might

2387
02:07:04,240 --> 02:07:09,040
Speaker 1: add progressives in the Democratic Party right, because there are

2388
02:07:09,080 --> 02:07:11,160
Speaker 1: some on the right, just like there's some on the right.

2389
02:07:11,200 --> 02:07:13,440
Speaker 1: I believe Trump is the cause of left. Trump is

2390
02:07:13,480 --> 02:07:15,400
Speaker 1: the cause of this some of the right, I think

2391
02:07:15,480 --> 02:07:18,760
Speaker 1: believe progressives have pressured Schumer to do this. So if

2392
02:07:18,800 --> 02:07:20,760
Speaker 1: I were to add a fourth punch, it would be

2393
02:07:20,800 --> 02:07:24,080
Speaker 1: that it would be interesting to do that so you

2394
02:07:24,120 --> 02:07:26,480
Speaker 1: could see is it an additional group of people that

2395
02:07:26,520 --> 02:07:28,120
Speaker 1: would do that, or is it within the forty two

2396
02:07:28,160 --> 02:07:31,080
Speaker 1: percent that blame Democrats that then would blame the progressive

2397
02:07:31,120 --> 02:07:34,040
Speaker 1: wing of the party for pressuring the leadership to do this.

2398
02:07:34,760 --> 02:07:40,920
Speaker 1: Bottom line is at some point, you know, I do

2399
02:07:40,960 --> 02:07:44,400
Speaker 1: think this debate over snap benefits Democrats are on the wrong.

2400
02:07:44,720 --> 02:07:48,839
Speaker 1: Are they actually have the power to get snap benefits

2401
02:07:48,840 --> 02:07:51,280
Speaker 1: going tomorrow? Just open the government up for a couple

2402
02:07:51,320 --> 02:07:54,400
Speaker 1: of weeks and make sure snap benefits go through. That

2403
02:07:54,440 --> 02:07:56,720
Speaker 1: would be good PR two. You know it certainly would

2404
02:07:56,760 --> 02:08:01,200
Speaker 1: improve prove that. So look, I think your suggestion is

2405
02:08:01,200 --> 02:08:05,480
Speaker 1: a terrific one. That's exactly the way, And weirdly, the

2406
02:08:05,520 --> 02:08:09,000
Speaker 1: Republicans offered them this exit ramp. Now we're getting so

2407
02:08:09,080 --> 02:08:11,800
Speaker 1: close to that end day. But either way, I still

2408
02:08:11,840 --> 02:08:14,520
Speaker 1: think that's their best way of essentially trying to have

2409
02:08:14,560 --> 02:08:17,680
Speaker 1: their cake and eat it too for the short term.

2410
02:08:18,320 --> 02:08:19,760
Speaker 1: All Right, one more question and then I'm going to

2411
02:08:19,800 --> 02:08:24,880
Speaker 1: get into my Actually, I'm gonna do two more questions

2412
02:08:24,880 --> 02:08:26,800
Speaker 1: and then I'm going to get into my college football rant.

2413
02:08:28,200 --> 02:08:31,400
Speaker 1: This comes from Forrest Listen with some interest to your

2414
02:08:31,400 --> 02:08:33,960
Speaker 1: thoughts on the dysfunction and weaponization of the Oversight Committee.

2415
02:08:34,000 --> 02:08:36,280
Speaker 1: Your idea of having the minority party in charge is interesting,

2416
02:08:36,520 --> 02:08:38,680
Speaker 1: but would that fix the weaponization or make it worse?

2417
02:08:38,880 --> 02:08:41,680
Speaker 1: Toochee instead, how about this. The committee is always fifty

2418
02:08:41,680 --> 02:08:44,080
Speaker 1: to fifty party split, but the members are selected by

2419
02:08:44,080 --> 02:08:46,640
Speaker 1: the opposing party, So Democrats would nominate a sign Republican

2420
02:08:46,680 --> 02:08:51,480
Speaker 1: members and vice versa. Thoughts, Hey, that's a This is

2421
02:08:51,560 --> 02:08:54,080
Speaker 1: exactly the type of ideas that I would love to

2422
02:08:54,120 --> 02:08:56,880
Speaker 1: see more of we need to have. This was a

2423
02:08:56,960 --> 02:09:00,120
Speaker 1: terrific idea for us. I think it's a fascinating one.

2424
02:09:00,280 --> 02:09:00,440
Speaker 2: Right.

2425
02:09:00,560 --> 02:09:04,800
Speaker 1: Let Republicans appoint the Democrats, Democrats appoint the Republicans, and

2426
02:09:05,240 --> 02:09:08,080
Speaker 1: then they decide who the ranking and it's an even number,

2427
02:09:09,280 --> 02:09:11,720
Speaker 1: so you can't do party line subpoenas, so that anytime

2428
02:09:11,760 --> 02:09:14,760
Speaker 1: there's a subpoena, there's always a bipartisan vote for a subpoena.

2429
02:09:15,880 --> 02:09:19,000
Speaker 1: I think this is a terrific idea. This is one

2430
02:09:19,000 --> 02:09:22,120
Speaker 1: of those that, you know, when we're thinking of how

2431
02:09:22,400 --> 02:09:25,360
Speaker 1: we all want to improve trust, you know, it's sort

2432
02:09:25,400 --> 02:09:28,600
Speaker 1: of the trust but verifying mindset of government. I don't

2433
02:09:28,600 --> 02:09:31,520
Speaker 1: trust anybody I want to, but I want to trust people.

2434
02:09:31,720 --> 02:09:33,480
Speaker 1: I want to have a system where I can find

2435
02:09:33,480 --> 02:09:37,040
Speaker 1: out if they're trustworthy, an accountability system. This is a

2436
02:09:37,040 --> 02:09:39,520
Speaker 1: good one. You know, you're right. Maybe if it's always

2437
02:09:39,520 --> 02:09:42,440
Speaker 1: a minority party that they get pressured to be weaponizers

2438
02:09:42,600 --> 02:09:46,880
Speaker 1: all the time, this fix is a great one. I'm

2439
02:09:46,920 --> 02:09:50,000
Speaker 1: sitting here trying to poke a hole through it on

2440
02:09:50,040 --> 02:09:53,440
Speaker 1: my initial mind. Look at it. I can't. There's not

2441
02:09:53,520 --> 02:09:55,960
Speaker 1: a that's hard to poke a hole through that one.

2442
02:09:56,960 --> 02:09:58,760
Speaker 1: That's a good one. Look, I think we need to

2443
02:09:58,760 --> 02:10:02,360
Speaker 1: start putting together a list. And you know, if I

2444
02:10:02,440 --> 02:10:04,920
Speaker 1: had the ambition to run for office myself and lead

2445
02:10:04,960 --> 02:10:06,960
Speaker 1: this sort of we need to you know, we need

2446
02:10:07,000 --> 02:10:10,480
Speaker 1: to rehab America, essentially the American democracy, This would be

2447
02:10:10,520 --> 02:10:12,520
Speaker 1: on my list of you know, you're looking for my

2448
02:10:12,560 --> 02:10:16,040
Speaker 1: platform and how to rehab the American democracy. This would

2449
02:10:16,040 --> 02:10:17,720
Speaker 1: be one of the ways, you know, because it doesn't

2450
02:10:17,760 --> 02:10:20,200
Speaker 1: have to be this exact idea, but putting it out there,

2451
02:10:20,520 --> 02:10:23,240
Speaker 1: here's the model. If you've got a better model, great,

2452
02:10:23,400 --> 02:10:27,360
Speaker 1: but right now, this is the best model of this

2453
02:10:27,440 --> 02:10:29,960
Speaker 1: is I'd like to see a similar version of how

2454
02:10:30,000 --> 02:10:32,240
Speaker 1: we dealt with the Justice Department and how we appointed

2455
02:10:32,280 --> 02:10:35,240
Speaker 1: people to the Justice Department. All right, last question for

2456
02:10:35,280 --> 02:10:38,160
Speaker 1: the episode, Andrew, Hey, I grew up watching Me to

2457
02:10:38,200 --> 02:10:41,080
Speaker 1: Press with Tim after eight thirty Mass every Sunday with

2458
02:10:41,120 --> 02:10:43,280
Speaker 1: my dad, and it's become one of my favorite weekly traditions.

2459
02:10:43,280 --> 02:10:45,480
Speaker 1: My father got very sick about fifteen years ago and

2460
02:10:45,520 --> 02:10:47,440
Speaker 1: passed away three years ago. My wife and I are

2461
02:10:47,440 --> 02:10:49,920
Speaker 1: in the process of fortidity treatments, and as excited as

2462
02:10:49,960 --> 02:10:52,320
Speaker 1: I am, I am also terrified. I apologize for this

2463
02:10:52,360 --> 02:10:54,760
Speaker 1: deep question, but I've often found some sense of contentment

2464
02:10:55,040 --> 02:10:57,400
Speaker 1: when you talk about history, how things have been bad before,

2465
02:10:57,440 --> 02:10:59,480
Speaker 1: how this is a repeat of the late nineteenth and

2466
02:11:00,040 --> 02:11:02,840
Speaker 1: early twentieth century of the Robert barons, or how the

2467
02:11:02,880 --> 02:11:05,960
Speaker 1: fever of McCarthyism finally broke. I guess my question is,

2468
02:11:06,160 --> 02:11:08,200
Speaker 1: as a father of college age kids, do you worry

2469
02:11:08,240 --> 02:11:10,360
Speaker 1: about the future as well? And as someone with a

2470
02:11:10,400 --> 02:11:13,480
Speaker 1: deeper knowledge of Washington in history than myself, what gives

2471
02:11:13,480 --> 02:11:16,240
Speaker 1: you hope that we find our way back? Thank you, Andrew. Well,

2472
02:11:16,280 --> 02:11:20,920
Speaker 1: it is why I make all the historical comparisons, and

2473
02:11:20,960 --> 02:11:23,760
Speaker 1: in fact, I you know, even today, you know, I'm

2474
02:11:23,840 --> 02:11:28,560
Speaker 1: reminded thinking of Teddy Roosevelt's aggressive imperialism. You know, we

2475
02:11:28,640 --> 02:11:31,400
Speaker 1: line on It's essentially Teddy Roosevelt's one of those presidents

2476
02:11:31,400 --> 02:11:35,520
Speaker 1: that's above partisanship, and yet Donald Trump's a huge imperialist.

2477
02:11:36,560 --> 02:11:40,280
Speaker 1: Teddy Roosevelt would be all four going after Greenland, would

2478
02:11:40,320 --> 02:11:42,080
Speaker 1: be all four trying to figure out how to have

2479
02:11:42,120 --> 02:11:44,000
Speaker 1: more influence in Latin America. I don't know if he'd

2480
02:11:44,000 --> 02:11:45,840
Speaker 1: go about it the same way Trump's going about it.

2481
02:11:47,400 --> 02:11:50,800
Speaker 1: But the point is is that I think you had

2482
02:11:50,840 --> 02:11:55,360
Speaker 1: I go back to this. Every election, the voters are

2483
02:11:55,360 --> 02:11:57,400
Speaker 1: telling us something, and if you don't like the outcome,

2484
02:11:57,520 --> 02:12:00,160
Speaker 1: it doesn't mean the election's rigged. It means the voters,

2485
02:12:00,720 --> 02:12:02,880
Speaker 1: the voters have a deeper issue, and I think it's

2486
02:12:04,480 --> 02:12:06,200
Speaker 1: I have optimism, and I hope you listen to the

2487
02:12:06,320 --> 02:12:09,560
Speaker 1: last episode. I have optimism for a variety of reasons.

2488
02:12:09,600 --> 02:12:12,000
Speaker 1: One is our history. We go through these moments and

2489
02:12:12,040 --> 02:12:16,320
Speaker 1: we get out of it. The American voter, you know,

2490
02:12:16,400 --> 02:12:18,920
Speaker 1: sometimes doesn't act as fast as maybe you or I want,

2491
02:12:19,160 --> 02:12:21,040
Speaker 1: but they eventually do the right thing. That's why I

2492
02:12:21,040 --> 02:12:24,040
Speaker 1: like to quote Churchill. You know, the Americans will eventually

2493
02:12:24,080 --> 02:12:27,560
Speaker 1: be there after they've exhausted every other pat that prevents

2494
02:12:27,560 --> 02:12:30,000
Speaker 1: them from being there. I think I butchered it, but

2495
02:12:30,160 --> 02:12:32,120
Speaker 1: I butcher it all the time to the point of everyone.

2496
02:12:32,160 --> 02:12:33,840
Speaker 1: So while I might stumble on the exact way he

2497
02:12:33,880 --> 02:12:38,960
Speaker 1: says it. So there's that. The second reason I actually

2498
02:12:38,960 --> 02:12:40,840
Speaker 1: have some hope is what I said last week at

2499
02:12:40,840 --> 02:12:46,200
Speaker 1: the startup, which is with the the the event I

2500
02:12:46,280 --> 02:12:50,320
Speaker 1: was at where there was some people trying to figure

2501
02:12:50,360 --> 02:12:52,320
Speaker 1: out is there a movement can we break up the

2502
02:12:52,400 --> 02:12:56,600
Speaker 1: duopoly and the person noting, you know, instead of looking

2503
02:12:56,640 --> 02:13:00,880
Speaker 1: at Donald Trump's elections as this horror show. If you're

2504
02:13:01,000 --> 02:13:04,800
Speaker 1: on the left or worried about where democracy is, you

2505
02:13:04,880 --> 02:13:07,120
Speaker 1: actually should give the voters a lot more credit. If

2506
02:13:07,120 --> 02:13:10,280
Speaker 1: the voters arguably going back to Obama then the election

2507
02:13:10,360 --> 02:13:13,040
Speaker 1: of Trump, even the election of Biden in between, they're

2508
02:13:13,080 --> 02:13:17,040
Speaker 1: telling us something. They want something, they want some radical change.

2509
02:13:17,560 --> 02:13:20,160
Speaker 1: They want this system to work differently, not the same.

2510
02:13:20,200 --> 02:13:24,040
Speaker 1: They're not looking for repair. Barack Obama doesn't win. Hillary

2511
02:13:24,040 --> 02:13:25,920
Speaker 1: Clinton would have won if they were looking for repair.

2512
02:13:26,320 --> 02:13:31,520
Speaker 1: They were looking for reconstruction, to borrow a word, you know,

2513
02:13:31,760 --> 02:13:35,240
Speaker 1: start over, knock it down and rebuild. Donald Trump knock

2514
02:13:35,280 --> 02:13:37,600
Speaker 1: it down and rebuild. These are not folks that were

2515
02:13:37,640 --> 02:13:40,560
Speaker 1: looking for you know. You know, Biden arguably was a president.

2516
02:13:40,600 --> 02:13:42,640
Speaker 1: We were like, oh, let's restore a little bit of order,

2517
02:13:42,800 --> 02:13:44,960
Speaker 1: so we can try to go back to a more

2518
02:13:45,000 --> 02:13:48,320
Speaker 1: sensible way for some form of restoration. But I don't

2519
02:13:48,320 --> 02:13:50,760
Speaker 1: know if this is restoration anymore. But the point is

2520
02:13:51,080 --> 02:13:53,480
Speaker 1: make a compelling argument for reform. And I think you

2521
02:13:53,520 --> 02:13:57,880
Speaker 1: have a voter's electorate that has a heavy appetite for this.

2522
02:13:58,560 --> 02:14:02,040
Speaker 1: So I am in a So that's why I'm long

2523
02:14:02,120 --> 02:14:06,000
Speaker 1: term optimistic. This is not going to be easy. The

2524
02:14:06,000 --> 02:14:08,080
Speaker 1: next two or three years are going to test us

2525
02:14:08,160 --> 02:14:10,880
Speaker 1: a lot. But you know, the federal courts have been

2526
02:14:10,920 --> 02:14:14,520
Speaker 1: beaten Trump up so much. The public's paying attention. You know,

2527
02:14:14,720 --> 02:14:17,600
Speaker 1: if if this stuff were popular, then I think we'd

2528
02:14:17,640 --> 02:14:21,960
Speaker 1: all feel differently. This stuff's not popular. The Constitution is

2529
02:14:22,000 --> 02:14:25,440
Speaker 1: still more popular than Donald Trump. Democracy is more popular

2530
02:14:25,480 --> 02:14:30,120
Speaker 1: than what he's been doing. So that's what gives me hope.

2531
02:14:31,280 --> 02:14:33,560
Speaker 1: And man, you know what else gives me hope are

2532
02:14:33,600 --> 02:14:37,720
Speaker 1: these college students. I teach at USC every other semester.

2533
02:14:38,880 --> 02:14:41,960
Speaker 1: I've had some, and I see it in my own kids.

2534
02:14:41,960 --> 02:14:43,800
Speaker 1: I see it with their friends and I get to

2535
02:14:43,840 --> 02:14:47,280
Speaker 1: know them. They're they're these this next generation of college leaders.

2536
02:14:48,120 --> 02:14:52,960
Speaker 1: They're pretty sophisticated. They're they're they're totally aware of how

2537
02:14:53,120 --> 02:14:56,360
Speaker 1: screwed up the information ecosystem is. They haven't been brainwashed.

2538
02:14:56,760 --> 02:14:58,880
Speaker 1: You know, we're all worried in our generation this somehow,

2539
02:14:58,880 --> 02:15:02,520
Speaker 1: Oh my god, because we know people of our older

2540
02:15:02,560 --> 02:15:04,720
Speaker 1: folks who are getting kind of brainwashed by the cable

2541
02:15:04,760 --> 02:15:08,000
Speaker 1: new silliness or what they're seeing and on social media.

2542
02:15:08,880 --> 02:15:12,400
Speaker 1: But younger folks aren't. They're taking matters in their own hands.

2543
02:15:12,600 --> 02:15:16,640
Speaker 1: So you know, it's it might be louder and messier

2544
02:15:16,640 --> 02:15:20,000
Speaker 1: than we've been used to, but I think directionally we're

2545
02:15:20,000 --> 02:15:23,160
Speaker 1: going in the right direction. It's just gonna feel bumpy.

2546
02:15:23,240 --> 02:15:27,560
Speaker 1: It's gonna be bumpy. I'm not gonna but that's that's

2547
02:15:27,600 --> 02:15:30,400
Speaker 1: my story. I'm sticking to it, Andrew. But that's why.

2548
02:15:30,960 --> 02:15:34,560
Speaker 1: And and in fact, don't you know, don't let this

2549
02:15:34,800 --> 02:15:46,680
Speaker 1: discourage you from bringing another generation in. Let it encourage you. Now,

2550
02:15:46,760 --> 02:15:49,840
Speaker 1: let's talk some college football. As I said, it's the

2551
02:15:49,920 --> 02:15:53,480
Speaker 1: first annual Toddbowle, right, have a daughter Miami, a daughter

2552
02:15:53,480 --> 02:15:57,000
Speaker 1: at sen It's not an SNU. So we made it.

2553
02:15:57,120 --> 02:16:04,120
Speaker 1: You know, the whole family gathered. I Mom wore SMU gear,

2554
02:16:04,400 --> 02:16:08,040
Speaker 1: Dad wore Miami gear. Sister wore her Miami Jersey son

2555
02:16:08,080 --> 02:16:11,240
Speaker 1: wore his SMU gear. So we were you know, and

2556
02:16:11,680 --> 02:16:14,200
Speaker 1: we actually our seats weren't two of us were together

2557
02:16:14,240 --> 02:16:19,600
Speaker 1: to we rotated and all that stuff. We ran into

2558
02:16:19,640 --> 02:16:22,120
Speaker 1: a few sets of parents that had a similar situation.

2559
02:16:22,160 --> 02:16:23,640
Speaker 1: One kid at one school, one kid at the other.

2560
02:16:24,880 --> 02:16:27,400
Speaker 1: So that was that was that was fun for us

2561
02:16:27,440 --> 02:16:30,480
Speaker 1: to learn and find and run into more more folks

2562
02:16:30,560 --> 02:16:35,560
Speaker 1: like that. But here we go again with Miami. My

2563
02:16:35,600 --> 02:16:37,720
Speaker 1: son stormed the field. He told me, he warned me.

2564
02:16:37,760 --> 02:16:40,080
Speaker 1: He said, he's got a really close friend who's on

2565
02:16:40,120 --> 02:16:43,600
Speaker 1: the scout team, and so he was giving he was

2566
02:16:44,120 --> 02:16:46,360
Speaker 1: he was telling me they had confidence all week that

2567
02:16:46,400 --> 02:16:48,760
Speaker 1: they you know, this was an important game to SMU,

2568
02:16:48,800 --> 02:16:52,440
Speaker 1: And it's just a reminder, right they SMU was prepared

2569
02:16:52,440 --> 02:16:54,960
Speaker 1: to play Miami. Miami was not prepared to play SMU.

2570
02:16:55,120 --> 02:16:57,600
Speaker 1: Miami might have been prepared to play a generic football team,

2571
02:16:57,640 --> 02:16:59,959
Speaker 1: but they did not prepare to play SMU. They prepared

2572
02:17:00,040 --> 02:17:02,600
Speaker 1: to play a generic football team. SMU prepared to play Miami.

2573
02:17:03,560 --> 02:17:10,320
Speaker 1: So that's sort of coaching coaching distinction one, if you

2574
02:17:10,360 --> 02:17:14,480
Speaker 1: wanted to go into those two things. The second I

2575
02:17:14,520 --> 02:17:18,959
Speaker 1: think situation you know here is it is obviously with Miami,

2576
02:17:19,000 --> 02:17:21,520
Speaker 1: this is this is fitting a pattern. But let me

2577
02:17:21,600 --> 02:17:26,240
Speaker 1: rant about the game, the entire game, the offensive game

2578
02:17:26,280 --> 02:17:29,680
Speaker 1: plan and coach Crystal Ball's decision making. We're all about

2579
02:17:29,720 --> 02:17:34,040
Speaker 1: avoiding catastrophe. Everything was risk averse. Early on. There was

2580
02:17:34,080 --> 02:17:36,480
Speaker 1: a short fourth and one. I think we were on

2581
02:17:36,480 --> 02:17:41,080
Speaker 1: our own forty forty one. But we you know, we

2582
02:17:41,160 --> 02:17:45,320
Speaker 1: just we chose to punt mistake. You know, they got

2583
02:17:45,360 --> 02:17:47,000
Speaker 1: done to punt and then that led to the interception

2584
02:17:47,040 --> 02:17:48,720
Speaker 1: that gave them the cheap scot. I mean they had

2585
02:17:48,760 --> 02:17:50,920
Speaker 1: something like negative three arts rushing at halftime, and yet

2586
02:17:50,959 --> 02:17:54,160
Speaker 1: we were only up ten to seven. We couldn't score

2587
02:17:54,160 --> 02:17:56,040
Speaker 1: in the red zone every time we were It felt

2588
02:17:56,040 --> 02:17:58,800
Speaker 1: like every time we were there, we could move the

2589
02:17:58,840 --> 02:18:01,440
Speaker 1: ball when we wanted to. Beck had so much time

2590
02:18:01,480 --> 02:18:06,280
Speaker 1: it was ridiculous. That wasn't an issue at all. But

2591
02:18:06,400 --> 02:18:09,440
Speaker 1: there was a lot of risk averse play calls. You

2592
02:18:09,480 --> 02:18:13,119
Speaker 1: could see it the whole time it was checked down Carson. Now.

2593
02:18:13,320 --> 02:18:17,240
Speaker 1: A big issue was his favorite receiver was injured, CJ. Daniels.

2594
02:18:17,560 --> 02:18:19,720
Speaker 1: He's the guy if you don't know the names of

2595
02:18:19,720 --> 02:18:22,080
Speaker 1: the Miami players, he's the guy that had that catching

2596
02:18:22,200 --> 02:18:24,520
Speaker 1: in the Notre Dame game that became that went viral,

2597
02:18:24,800 --> 02:18:27,160
Speaker 1: the one handed catch where he grabbed it and went down.

2598
02:18:28,400 --> 02:18:30,440
Speaker 1: It is been Beck's favorite receiver is the one he

2599
02:18:30,480 --> 02:18:32,119
Speaker 1: trusts the most. I think it's the one he worked

2600
02:18:32,120 --> 02:18:34,960
Speaker 1: with the most all summer because even though our best

2601
02:18:35,000 --> 02:18:39,800
Speaker 1: receiver is Tony, Tony is a true freshman. He was

2602
02:18:39,840 --> 02:18:42,400
Speaker 1: seventeen and for the Notre Dame game. He just turned eighteen,

2603
02:18:42,680 --> 02:18:45,280
Speaker 1: but he was only there for fall camp. Beck was

2604
02:18:45,280 --> 02:18:48,320
Speaker 1: working with CJ. Daniels basically the second he could start throwing,

2605
02:18:48,360 --> 02:18:50,800
Speaker 1: so he developed a real rapport with him. Him not

2606
02:18:50,879 --> 02:18:53,760
Speaker 1: being there. I could tell that was a problem. That's

2607
02:18:53,800 --> 02:18:55,800
Speaker 1: the receiver when he's in trouble, when he wants to

2608
02:18:55,800 --> 02:18:57,199
Speaker 1: go down the field, he wants to go to first,

2609
02:18:57,360 --> 02:18:59,240
Speaker 1: even though Tony's the guy you should want to always

2610
02:18:59,280 --> 02:19:01,039
Speaker 1: get the ball in the hand right. Look at what

2611
02:19:01,080 --> 02:19:04,400
Speaker 1: happened when Tony returned the punt boy when he didn't score.

2612
02:19:04,640 --> 02:19:06,640
Speaker 1: I was worried we wouldn't know how to punch it in,

2613
02:19:07,520 --> 02:19:09,040
Speaker 1: and sure enough we didn't punch it in at the

2614
02:19:09,120 --> 02:19:12,160
Speaker 1: end of the half. But again a risk averse decision.

2615
02:19:12,240 --> 02:19:15,960
Speaker 1: We settle for a field goal. We could have kicked

2616
02:19:15,959 --> 02:19:17,879
Speaker 1: a fifty four yard field goal. It was sprinkling for

2617
02:19:17,879 --> 02:19:19,640
Speaker 1: about the first quarter and a half of the game,

2618
02:19:20,720 --> 02:19:23,280
Speaker 1: and so it was a wet field and a wet ball,

2619
02:19:23,560 --> 02:19:26,440
Speaker 1: and it seemed like Mario was nervous about seeing if

2620
02:19:26,480 --> 02:19:28,280
Speaker 1: his kicker could hit a fifty It would have been

2621
02:19:28,280 --> 02:19:30,320
Speaker 1: about a fifty four yarder, so he took a delay

2622
02:19:30,320 --> 02:19:34,440
Speaker 1: a game and instead punted but that's been the whenever

2623
02:19:34,760 --> 02:19:39,000
Speaker 1: Mario was in doubt, he chooses the path of least risk,

2624
02:19:39,959 --> 02:19:44,240
Speaker 1: and the most egregious decision that he made was the

2625
02:19:44,320 --> 02:19:48,160
Speaker 1: decision with twenty five. So here's the scenario. It's a

2626
02:19:48,200 --> 02:19:51,160
Speaker 1: tie game, SMU kicks the tying field goal, Miami has

2627
02:19:51,160 --> 02:19:53,720
Speaker 1: the ball, gets the ball back with twenty five seconds

2628
02:19:53,800 --> 02:19:57,720
Speaker 1: left in the game in one time out. The SMU

2629
02:19:57,800 --> 02:19:59,200
Speaker 1: kicker kicks it out of the end zone. So we're

2630
02:19:59,240 --> 02:20:04,400
Speaker 1: getting the ball at the twenty and Mario takes a knee.

2631
02:20:06,160 --> 02:20:08,600
Speaker 1: It is I mean, here's the guy who at the

2632
02:20:08,600 --> 02:20:11,200
Speaker 1: Georgia Tech game last year didn't know or two years ago,

2633
02:20:11,560 --> 02:20:14,680
Speaker 1: didn't take the knee and ends up in this ridiculous

2634
02:20:14,720 --> 02:20:16,640
Speaker 1: situation where it costs him the game. But in case

2635
02:20:16,680 --> 02:20:19,959
Speaker 1: here the game is tied, he's is he worried Carson

2636
02:20:19,959 --> 02:20:23,400
Speaker 1: Beck's going to throw a pick six in twenty five seconds?

2637
02:20:23,440 --> 02:20:25,160
Speaker 1: And if that's what you're worried about, then we don't

2638
02:20:25,160 --> 02:20:29,760
Speaker 1: have a championship team, noror a championship quarterback. And that's

2639
02:20:30,560 --> 02:20:34,600
Speaker 1: that's what's buried underneath this. This coaching staff doesn't trust

2640
02:20:34,640 --> 02:20:39,120
Speaker 1: Carson Beck. If you're very carefully watched this offense, and

2641
02:20:39,200 --> 02:20:42,760
Speaker 1: I do whenever the chips were down, the play calls

2642
02:20:42,760 --> 02:20:46,480
Speaker 1: are much more conservative, their quick passes, if their passes

2643
02:20:46,920 --> 02:20:51,160
Speaker 1: or their run plays. So there's it's clear that either

2644
02:20:51,160 --> 02:20:53,160
Speaker 1: one or two things are true with the offensive coordinator,

2645
02:20:53,200 --> 02:20:55,840
Speaker 1: and I have I'm not giving up on Mario and

2646
02:20:55,840 --> 02:20:57,640
Speaker 1: I'll explain in a minute, but I have given up

2647
02:20:57,640 --> 02:21:01,320
Speaker 1: on Shannon Dawson because here's a reality check. With Shannon

2648
02:21:01,360 --> 02:21:04,600
Speaker 1: Dawson's offense. The more film, the more the offense is

2649
02:21:04,640 --> 02:21:07,800
Speaker 1: on film, the more our opponents are able to stop

2650
02:21:07,840 --> 02:21:10,920
Speaker 1: the offense and slow us down. Pure and simple. We

2651
02:21:10,959 --> 02:21:13,480
Speaker 1: have the better athletes, we have the bigger offensive line,

2652
02:21:13,720 --> 02:21:17,400
Speaker 1: but we're calling the same essentially. You know, we have

2653
02:21:17,440 --> 02:21:20,520
Speaker 1: about ten ten RPOs and it feels like they we

2654
02:21:20,680 --> 02:21:23,480
Speaker 1: just rotate through the ten RPOs in some form or another,

2655
02:21:24,240 --> 02:21:29,080
Speaker 1: and it's the same set of ten RPOs. There's no

2656
02:21:29,400 --> 02:21:32,840
Speaker 1: there's whatever we ran in game two, like we added

2657
02:21:32,879 --> 02:21:35,119
Speaker 1: some things from game one to game two, but whatever

2658
02:21:35,160 --> 02:21:36,760
Speaker 1: we started running in game two is the same thing

2659
02:21:36,760 --> 02:21:39,640
Speaker 1: we've been running in game six, games seven, gamemame. And

2660
02:21:40,000 --> 02:21:43,360
Speaker 1: it's clear that there's no innovation on this offense. This

2661
02:21:43,440 --> 02:21:45,600
Speaker 1: is not a visionary offense. You have a head coach

2662
02:21:45,640 --> 02:21:48,280
Speaker 1: who's thinks this is the nineteen eighties, and you just

2663
02:21:48,560 --> 02:21:50,960
Speaker 1: it's all about Jimmy's and Joe's, not x's and O's.

2664
02:21:51,200 --> 02:21:53,360
Speaker 1: What do I mean by that? Jimmy's and Joe's. The

2665
02:21:53,520 --> 02:21:56,800
Speaker 1: Miami teams of the eighties and nineties were simply bigger, faster,

2666
02:21:56,879 --> 02:22:00,320
Speaker 1: and stronger and so even, and they actually still had

2667
02:22:00,320 --> 02:22:05,040
Speaker 1: some better coaching offensive innovation for that time period. Miami

2668
02:22:05,080 --> 02:22:08,160
Speaker 1: was a more innovative offense when they were winning their titles.

2669
02:22:08,160 --> 02:22:10,520
Speaker 1: It was because Miami threw the ball more than anybody

2670
02:22:10,560 --> 02:22:12,600
Speaker 1: else did. Mimi was running a pro style offense for

2671
02:22:12,600 --> 02:22:15,000
Speaker 1: anybody in college was doing that. Miami ran a weird

2672
02:22:15,120 --> 02:22:17,480
Speaker 1: RPO during the Dennis Ericson years, and I wasn't crazy

2673
02:22:17,520 --> 02:22:20,160
Speaker 1: about the offense, but it was highly effective. Teams had

2674
02:22:20,160 --> 02:22:21,760
Speaker 1: a hard time stopping it. And oh, by the way,

2675
02:22:21,760 --> 02:22:24,480
Speaker 1: he won not one but two national titles and produced

2676
02:22:24,480 --> 02:22:27,199
Speaker 1: a Heisman Trophy winner in Gino Terretta because of how

2677
02:22:27,240 --> 02:22:32,000
Speaker 1: prolific that offense was. And so Miami in the eighties

2678
02:22:32,040 --> 02:22:35,840
Speaker 1: and nineties was on the cutting edge of offensive play

2679
02:22:35,879 --> 02:22:41,240
Speaker 1: calling in college football. Even by twenty oh one, there

2680
02:22:41,320 --> 02:22:44,080
Speaker 1: was some evidence of that that we had a pretty

2681
02:22:44,120 --> 02:22:46,920
Speaker 1: pretty you know, but it was a combination of Jimmy's

2682
02:22:46,959 --> 02:22:50,920
Speaker 1: and Joe's and we had half decent x's and o's.

2683
02:22:51,879 --> 02:22:53,680
Speaker 1: Over the last twenty five years, we've had a few

2684
02:22:53,720 --> 02:22:56,400
Speaker 1: great x's and o's, guys. Jed Fish was an offensive coordinary.

2685
02:22:56,400 --> 02:22:58,280
Speaker 1: He's now the head coach of the University of Washington.

2686
02:22:58,640 --> 02:23:00,640
Speaker 1: Do some of us wish he were still play caller?

2687
02:23:00,800 --> 02:23:01,119
Speaker 2: I do.

2688
02:23:01,480 --> 02:23:03,800
Speaker 1: Rhet Lashley was a terrific play caller at the University

2689
02:23:03,800 --> 02:23:05,320
Speaker 1: of Miami. Do some of us wish he were still

2690
02:23:05,360 --> 02:23:07,720
Speaker 1: our play caller and maybe head coach? Well now he's

2691
02:23:07,720 --> 02:23:12,160
Speaker 1: at SMU. Shannon Dawson, I think cam Ward made it

2692
02:23:12,160 --> 02:23:15,200
Speaker 1: seem as if Shannon Dawson knew was an innovative play caller.

2693
02:23:15,640 --> 02:23:18,960
Speaker 1: Cam Ward was an innovator, and I realized that watching

2694
02:23:19,040 --> 02:23:22,480
Speaker 1: Carson back yesterday and Kevin Jennings, the quarterback of SMU.

2695
02:23:22,840 --> 02:23:25,039
Speaker 1: Kevin Jennings was a poor man's cam Ward, except he

2696
02:23:25,120 --> 02:23:27,720
Speaker 1: was as good as I saw. Kevin Jennings had as

2697
02:23:27,720 --> 02:23:29,600
Speaker 1: good of a game as cam Ward had in any

2698
02:23:29,640 --> 02:23:32,240
Speaker 1: game last year with the University of Miami. He had

2699
02:23:32,280 --> 02:23:35,160
Speaker 1: that side arm. He was accurate as how he didn't

2700
02:23:35,280 --> 02:23:38,480
Speaker 1: miss it open receiver. He threw in some tight windows.

2701
02:23:38,879 --> 02:23:43,080
Speaker 1: He was terrific. And it is a reminder I think

2702
02:23:43,120 --> 02:23:45,600
Speaker 1: now when you're looking at the broad top fifty of

2703
02:23:45,680 --> 02:23:48,840
Speaker 1: college football, now, they're all spending about the same amount

2704
02:23:48,840 --> 02:23:51,199
Speaker 1: of money. Trust me, SMU spent a ton of money

2705
02:23:51,240 --> 02:23:54,160
Speaker 1: on their roster construction as Miami. Do we have better

2706
02:23:54,360 --> 02:23:57,200
Speaker 1: Jimmy's and Joe's right now than SMU does. Yeah, damn right,

2707
02:23:57,240 --> 02:24:01,480
Speaker 1: we do. But when you're within, but when you're not

2708
02:24:01,600 --> 02:24:05,640
Speaker 1: that far apart, right, So the true differentiators are do

2709
02:24:05,720 --> 02:24:07,200
Speaker 1: you have the good coach on the field, which is

2710
02:24:07,240 --> 02:24:09,560
Speaker 1: a quarterback, and do you have a good play caller

2711
02:24:10,440 --> 02:24:13,760
Speaker 1: and good on in game coaching and game in sort

2712
02:24:13,800 --> 02:24:20,000
Speaker 1: of second half adjusted, SMU had the better prepared team,

2713
02:24:20,400 --> 02:24:24,760
Speaker 1: better game plan, better adjustments that were made. They also

2714
02:24:24,800 --> 02:24:27,840
Speaker 1: had the better quarterback. We had the better everything else.

2715
02:24:28,120 --> 02:24:30,400
Speaker 1: And it didn't matter if you have the better quarterback

2716
02:24:30,440 --> 02:24:34,080
Speaker 1: than the better coach. And even if you're if you're

2717
02:24:34,200 --> 02:24:36,039
Speaker 1: if you only have forty percent of the athletes that

2718
02:24:36,120 --> 02:24:38,560
Speaker 1: the team you're you're playing does, if you have the

2719
02:24:38,600 --> 02:24:41,320
Speaker 1: better quarterback and coach, you're going to win fifty percent.

2720
02:24:41,360 --> 02:24:44,120
Speaker 1: You're gonna win half the time, you're going to overperform

2721
02:24:44,120 --> 02:24:46,720
Speaker 1: and you're going to win a lot. And it's if

2722
02:24:46,720 --> 02:24:50,360
Speaker 1: you look at Miami's two losses, it is to Brahm

2723
02:24:50,360 --> 02:24:53,440
Speaker 1: of Louisville, a better play caller and a better game

2724
02:24:53,600 --> 02:24:57,400
Speaker 1: prep prepare game coach prepare than Mario Christobal and right

2725
02:24:57,520 --> 02:25:00,000
Speaker 1: Lashy another one who just prepares for one game better

2726
02:25:00,000 --> 02:25:04,200
Speaker 1: better than Mario Christball. That's just a fact. Now, why

2727
02:25:04,240 --> 02:25:08,160
Speaker 1: am I not ready to give up a Mario Christaball? Well, look,

2728
02:25:08,280 --> 02:25:10,840
Speaker 1: I live in the real world and I can tell

2729
02:25:10,879 --> 02:25:12,960
Speaker 1: you this, and this is my message to University of

2730
02:25:12,959 --> 02:25:15,760
Speaker 1: Miami fan football fans out there who are frustrated with

2731
02:25:15,840 --> 02:25:19,960
Speaker 1: coach Crystal Ball. I struggle with this question because I

2732
02:25:20,000 --> 02:25:22,200
Speaker 1: think this is a man who loves this program, loves

2733
02:25:22,200 --> 02:25:26,119
Speaker 1: the school, loves the kids that he recruits, and really cares.

2734
02:25:27,160 --> 02:25:30,800
Speaker 1: He does everything off the field as well, if not

2735
02:25:30,920 --> 02:25:34,600
Speaker 1: better than most coaches in the country. He's highly organized,

2736
02:25:35,080 --> 02:25:38,480
Speaker 1: great relationships with high school coaches. He does all of

2737
02:25:38,520 --> 02:25:43,600
Speaker 1: this extraordinarily well. Again, much better than some of these

2738
02:25:43,959 --> 02:25:49,280
Speaker 1: coaches that have had better performances than him. The problem

2739
02:25:49,320 --> 02:25:54,040
Speaker 1: with Mario is he doesn't have He's a risk averse guy,

2740
02:25:54,800 --> 02:26:00,560
Speaker 1: and he hires game planners that fit his philosophy. And

2741
02:26:00,600 --> 02:26:03,360
Speaker 1: the fact is, Miami, you know, scared money, don't make money.

2742
02:26:03,440 --> 02:26:06,160
Speaker 1: That's one of my favorite expressions. Right, This is why

2743
02:26:06,200 --> 02:26:08,440
Speaker 1: you do have to split eights when you play black check, Right,

2744
02:26:08,480 --> 02:26:12,440
Speaker 1: no matter what, you just do it because it's the

2745
02:26:12,520 --> 02:26:14,360
Speaker 1: right way. You know, it's the only way you're going

2746
02:26:14,400 --> 02:26:16,600
Speaker 1: to make real money. It's only way you're actually going

2747
02:26:16,640 --> 02:26:18,840
Speaker 1: to have an edge when you're playing these things. The

2748
02:26:18,840 --> 02:26:20,760
Speaker 1: only way you're going to have an edge in college

2749
02:26:20,800 --> 02:26:22,119
Speaker 1: football is you got to be the guy that goes

2750
02:26:22,120 --> 02:26:24,200
Speaker 1: forward on fourth to one just about every time unless

2751
02:26:24,240 --> 02:26:27,600
Speaker 1: you're inside your own thirty I would if I only

2752
02:26:27,640 --> 02:26:30,320
Speaker 1: if I was, you know, maybe thirty five. But if

2753
02:26:30,360 --> 02:26:33,039
Speaker 1: you're north of the thirty five, you should always be

2754
02:26:33,040 --> 02:26:34,320
Speaker 1: going for an on fourth to one, especially you have

2755
02:26:34,360 --> 02:26:38,440
Speaker 1: an offensive line like Miami's. But he's extraordinarily risk averse,

2756
02:26:38,760 --> 02:26:41,840
Speaker 1: and he hires game planners that are risk averse. And

2757
02:26:41,879 --> 02:26:44,199
Speaker 1: we saw it. He did this to take a knee

2758
02:26:44,240 --> 02:26:47,200
Speaker 1: with twenty five seconds left. I just I had lost it.

2759
02:26:47,760 --> 02:26:49,760
Speaker 1: I did, I was in the stands. I lost it.

2760
02:26:49,879 --> 02:26:52,280
Speaker 1: I screamed. I was like, That's when I tweeted Mario

2761
02:26:52,320 --> 02:26:55,600
Speaker 1: takes years off of my life. But there's one other

2762
02:26:55,640 --> 02:26:58,240
Speaker 1: reality check that University of Miami supporters need to understand.

2763
02:26:59,360 --> 02:27:04,000
Speaker 1: In every other instance where a frustrated football program has

2764
02:27:04,000 --> 02:27:06,240
Speaker 1: gotten the coach fired, Hugh Freese at Auburn is the latest.

2765
02:27:06,240 --> 02:27:08,280
Speaker 1: But you've got Brian Kelly, you got James Franklin, You've

2766
02:27:08,280 --> 02:27:13,400
Speaker 1: got Billy Napier. We can go on and on. None

2767
02:27:13,400 --> 02:27:16,440
Speaker 1: of those coaches were responsible for bringing the investment to

2768
02:27:16,480 --> 02:27:20,600
Speaker 1: the program. Mario Cristobal, you know, Manny Diaz, who a

2769
02:27:20,640 --> 02:27:22,560
Speaker 1: lot of people have noted, has a better winning percentage

2770
02:27:22,600 --> 02:27:24,920
Speaker 1: as an ACC coach at Duke than Mario has at Miami.

2771
02:27:25,320 --> 02:27:26,720
Speaker 1: By the way, Mario is seven to five in his

2772
02:27:26,840 --> 02:27:33,440
Speaker 1: last twelve games. His ACC record is putrid. I mean

2773
02:27:33,440 --> 02:27:37,960
Speaker 1: it's Miami seasons continue to be screwed once they get

2774
02:27:38,000 --> 02:27:40,640
Speaker 1: into conference play, And I go back to the lack

2775
02:27:40,720 --> 02:27:44,640
Speaker 1: of innovation. I think the more Miami tape, more Miami

2776
02:27:44,760 --> 02:27:48,560
Speaker 1: tape that teams see and can game plan too, and

2777
02:27:48,600 --> 02:27:51,320
Speaker 1: can scout, the more likely they find ways to slow

2778
02:27:51,320 --> 02:27:55,119
Speaker 1: the offensive down and beat our defense. We're just too

2779
02:27:55,320 --> 02:27:59,320
Speaker 1: easy to prepare for. As the season moves on, right,

2780
02:27:59,600 --> 02:28:01,680
Speaker 1: we do really well the first five or six games,

2781
02:28:01,720 --> 02:28:04,480
Speaker 1: and this has been a consistent pattern until we have

2782
02:28:04,680 --> 02:28:07,200
Speaker 1: enough on tape and teams that face us more often

2783
02:28:07,600 --> 02:28:11,520
Speaker 1: your conference opponents all seem to have no problems figuring

2784
02:28:11,560 --> 02:28:15,039
Speaker 1: out how to You know it is you know when

2785
02:28:15,080 --> 02:28:17,840
Speaker 1: we knew we had to get when when Manny got

2786
02:28:17,959 --> 02:28:20,240
Speaker 1: rid of the offensive coordinator had before Rhet Lashley, it

2787
02:28:20,320 --> 02:28:22,560
Speaker 1: was because we all could predict the game, the play

2788
02:28:22,560 --> 02:28:24,720
Speaker 1: calls before they actually happened, and you just knew them

2789
02:28:24,720 --> 02:28:28,160
Speaker 1: every time. Rahd Lashley was the first offensive coordinator Miami

2790
02:28:28,200 --> 02:28:31,400
Speaker 1: had since shed Fish. And that goes back away where

2791
02:28:31,440 --> 02:28:34,600
Speaker 1: I could where I didn't always predict the call run

2792
02:28:34,680 --> 02:28:37,240
Speaker 1: versus pass, let alone, left versus right, et cetera, et cetera.

2793
02:28:39,000 --> 02:28:42,520
Speaker 1: That's the sign of an innovative play caller. Shannon Dawson's

2794
02:28:42,520 --> 02:28:45,400
Speaker 1: not an innovative play caller. And I think that Cam

2795
02:28:45,400 --> 02:28:48,959
Speaker 1: Word's success masked a very vanilla offense. He makes it

2796
02:28:49,000 --> 02:28:52,880
Speaker 1: easy for quarterbacks to learn because there's not many decisions

2797
02:28:52,879 --> 02:28:55,840
Speaker 1: to make. But there was, There's just been no innovator.

2798
02:28:55,879 --> 02:28:56,120
Speaker 2: It is.

2799
02:28:56,640 --> 02:29:01,360
Speaker 1: Miami's offense is now super predictable, and that's why SMU

2800
02:29:01,480 --> 02:29:05,879
Speaker 1: was so prepared to essentially play prevent They just prevented

2801
02:29:05,879 --> 02:29:09,160
Speaker 1: Miami from doing explosive plays and they just kept Miami.

2802
02:29:10,120 --> 02:29:15,000
Speaker 1: You know, Miami is struggling to score touchdowns when they're

2803
02:29:15,040 --> 02:29:17,240
Speaker 1: in the red zone. They're more likely to score a

2804
02:29:17,240 --> 02:29:19,520
Speaker 1: touchdown when they're outside the twenty than when they're inside

2805
02:29:19,560 --> 02:29:23,119
Speaker 1: the twenty. And that's just the lack of innovative play calling.

2806
02:29:23,680 --> 02:29:28,040
Speaker 1: It's very predictable. The run schemes are all up the middle,

2807
02:29:28,080 --> 02:29:29,920
Speaker 1: up the middle, and Shannon Dawson got his back up

2808
02:29:29,959 --> 02:29:32,520
Speaker 1: when he was criticized about this last week, and sure

2809
02:29:32,640 --> 02:29:37,920
Speaker 1: enough it hit again. Here we are. So look, the

2810
02:29:38,000 --> 02:29:40,440
Speaker 1: team was sloppy, made a lot of penalties. By the way,

2811
02:29:40,440 --> 02:29:43,440
Speaker 1: these refs were atrocious to pick up a flag that

2812
02:29:43,480 --> 02:29:47,520
Speaker 1: would have essentially given Miami another shot at getting a

2813
02:29:47,520 --> 02:29:49,000
Speaker 1: first down and ending the game and not having to

2814
02:29:49,000 --> 02:29:51,320
Speaker 1: get the ball back where there was a holding and

2815
02:29:51,400 --> 02:29:53,880
Speaker 1: there was obvious passitor affairs. We all saw it. The

2816
02:29:53,920 --> 02:29:56,240
Speaker 1: referee that was closest to us saw it through the flag,

2817
02:29:56,360 --> 02:29:58,280
Speaker 1: and then they just picked up the flag with no

2818
02:29:58,760 --> 02:30:01,600
Speaker 1: good explanation other than and these refs did not want

2819
02:30:01,600 --> 02:30:05,480
Speaker 1: to give Miami another down. It was absolutely egregious and

2820
02:30:05,560 --> 02:30:08,080
Speaker 1: the second most egregious call was the roughing the passer

2821
02:30:08,120 --> 02:30:10,720
Speaker 1: penalty when the player clearly it was a mess of

2822
02:30:10,760 --> 02:30:13,800
Speaker 1: a whistle situation that the ref screwed up. And because

2823
02:30:13,840 --> 02:30:15,880
Speaker 1: the ref screwed up, they punished the player, and they

2824
02:30:15,879 --> 02:30:19,240
Speaker 1: punished Miami, and they caught, and they essentially gifted the

2825
02:30:19,320 --> 02:30:23,840
Speaker 1: game to SMU. Except the reason why I'm not going

2826
02:30:23,920 --> 02:30:27,440
Speaker 1: to sit here and absolve the Crystal Ball and the

2827
02:30:27,480 --> 02:30:30,440
Speaker 1: coaching staff or the or the or the or the

2828
02:30:30,520 --> 02:30:34,520
Speaker 1: team itself is they they put themselves in a position

2829
02:30:34,560 --> 02:30:37,600
Speaker 1: where where bad ref calls could make a difference, and

2830
02:30:37,640 --> 02:30:39,360
Speaker 1: they never should have been in that situation in the

2831
02:30:39,360 --> 02:30:42,520
Speaker 1: first place. So, yes, the ACEC has a problem. This

2832
02:30:42,600 --> 02:30:46,080
Speaker 1: is the worst officiating since that since the SEC's that

2833
02:30:46,200 --> 02:30:49,520
Speaker 1: Florida excuse me, that George Auburn game, which you know,

2834
02:30:49,680 --> 02:30:51,360
Speaker 1: Hugh Freeze is going to be muttering to himself that

2835
02:30:51,360 --> 02:30:53,959
Speaker 1: if it wasn't for those SEC officials, he beat Georgia

2836
02:30:53,959 --> 02:30:56,960
Speaker 1: and he's not fired today, and I think he's right.

2837
02:30:57,480 --> 02:31:01,840
Speaker 1: And these acc college football officiating is atrocious. It's not

2838
02:31:02,240 --> 02:31:05,279
Speaker 1: just not as good as the NFL. It is unprofessional.

2839
02:31:05,879 --> 02:31:08,800
Speaker 1: You see these refs out there, some of them are pros,

2840
02:31:08,959 --> 02:31:13,080
Speaker 1: some of them are idiots, and we need if you're

2841
02:31:13,120 --> 02:31:15,960
Speaker 1: going to allow college betting, if you're going to professionalize

2842
02:31:16,000 --> 02:31:19,280
Speaker 1: college football, then every conference needs to spend a hell

2843
02:31:19,320 --> 02:31:22,320
Speaker 1: of a lot more unofficiating and improve the quality of officials.

2844
02:31:22,800 --> 02:31:26,240
Speaker 1: Pure and simple, that was a s show of officiating.

2845
02:31:26,600 --> 02:31:30,599
Speaker 1: It was terrible, and it's been terrible all year. Anybody,

2846
02:31:30,680 --> 02:31:32,680
Speaker 1: any ACC fan, and it doesn't matter what team here,

2847
02:31:33,080 --> 02:31:39,320
Speaker 1: they're not good. They're just bad at their job. Period. Okay,

2848
02:31:39,560 --> 02:31:41,480
Speaker 1: but this is no. It does not get to be

2849
02:31:41,520 --> 02:31:45,560
Speaker 1: the excuse. And I do, like I said, I am.

2850
02:31:45,920 --> 02:31:50,080
Speaker 1: I think Mario Cristabaal is the reason why money is

2851
02:31:50,120 --> 02:31:53,800
Speaker 1: being invested in the University of Miami. So he's not

2852
02:31:53,840 --> 02:31:58,240
Speaker 1: getting fired, but he needs to find a better offensive

2853
02:31:58,240 --> 02:32:02,400
Speaker 1: coordinator and he needs to own up to his that

2854
02:32:02,520 --> 02:32:05,720
Speaker 1: his philosophy is too risk averse that you can't be

2855
02:32:05,840 --> 02:32:09,000
Speaker 1: in major college football. You don't have you will never

2856
02:32:09,080 --> 02:32:13,439
Speaker 1: have the jimmies and Joe's to play that kind of

2857
02:32:12,240 --> 02:32:19,840
Speaker 1: of of coaching schemes anymore. And there's a reason Miami

2858
02:32:19,920 --> 02:32:23,520
Speaker 1: sucks in November. The more film that a team has

2859
02:32:23,720 --> 02:32:27,119
Speaker 1: on Miami, the easier time they have to game plan.

2860
02:32:27,840 --> 02:32:31,400
Speaker 1: It's obvious it's the obvious answer. This is what this

2861
02:32:31,440 --> 02:32:34,120
Speaker 1: is me do an Okham's raiser here. I'm not a

2862
02:32:34,120 --> 02:32:37,320
Speaker 1: football coach. I've done my level of pee week coaching

2863
02:32:37,600 --> 02:32:39,680
Speaker 1: and kid coaching. I'm not going to sit here and

2864
02:32:39,760 --> 02:32:43,080
Speaker 1: say I'm an expert at this. But when you know,

2865
02:32:43,200 --> 02:32:49,440
Speaker 1: you know, and I'm and I'm well aware when you

2866
02:32:49,520 --> 02:32:52,879
Speaker 1: know you know, and I'm well aware that this is

2867
02:32:52,920 --> 02:32:56,080
Speaker 1: a very predictable offense. Again, I watch a ton of it.

2868
02:32:56,680 --> 02:32:59,960
Speaker 1: So what needs to happen is there needs to be

2869
02:33:00,160 --> 02:33:02,000
Speaker 1: a new offensive. We're gonna have to have a new offense.

2870
02:33:02,120 --> 02:33:06,039
Speaker 1: I do worry that you know, you get you know

2871
02:33:06,120 --> 02:33:09,480
Speaker 1: over time, you know, Mark. If you look at the

2872
02:33:09,520 --> 02:33:11,520
Speaker 1: history of college football in the twenty first century, there's

2873
02:33:11,560 --> 02:33:15,039
Speaker 1: only been three coaches who were tenured longer than five

2874
02:33:15,120 --> 02:33:20,360
Speaker 1: years and won their first national title. Jim Harbaugh won

2875
02:33:20,400 --> 02:33:22,400
Speaker 1: it in his eighth year, Dabo Swiney won it in

2876
02:33:22,440 --> 02:33:24,600
Speaker 1: his eighth year, and Mac Brown won it in his

2877
02:33:24,680 --> 02:33:28,280
Speaker 1: seventh year. Every other first time national championship coach in

2878
02:33:28,320 --> 02:33:30,840
Speaker 1: the twenty first century all won it in either year

2879
02:33:30,840 --> 02:33:35,960
Speaker 1: four or less. Mario Christo Baal this was year four,

2880
02:33:36,879 --> 02:33:39,640
Speaker 1: next year's year five. He basically he's not in the

2881
02:33:39,680 --> 02:33:41,960
Speaker 1: hot seat this year, but he's now in the hot

2882
02:33:41,959 --> 02:33:45,920
Speaker 1: seat next year. If there's not a playoff run next year,

2883
02:33:46,560 --> 02:33:48,600
Speaker 1: it's going to be time to move on. Because what

2884
02:33:48,640 --> 02:33:51,160
Speaker 1: you worry about is that this becomes a virus, right,

2885
02:33:51,200 --> 02:33:55,160
Speaker 1: which players are going, oh yeah, christa ball never wins.

2886
02:33:55,200 --> 02:33:57,600
Speaker 1: It just sort of starts to feed on itself, and

2887
02:33:57,640 --> 02:33:59,680
Speaker 1: it will cost you that one five star recruit that

2888
02:33:59,680 --> 02:34:02,560
Speaker 1: you're need. You'll still get the great four star recruits

2889
02:34:02,600 --> 02:34:07,000
Speaker 1: and you still get to be maybe as good as

2890
02:34:07,000 --> 02:34:11,240
Speaker 1: Penn State. But Penn State never could break through. Right.

2891
02:34:11,800 --> 02:34:13,680
Speaker 1: You know, the joke is crystal Ball is Spanish for

2892
02:34:13,760 --> 02:34:18,480
Speaker 1: James Franklin, and that that's one of the running jokes

2893
02:34:18,240 --> 02:34:23,720
Speaker 1: in Miami Twitter. But there's that's what he has to avoid.

2894
02:34:23,879 --> 02:34:26,560
Speaker 1: He's and then you know, Oregon fans love to troll

2895
02:34:26,600 --> 02:34:29,760
Speaker 1: Miami fans about this, right They they think they upgraded

2896
02:34:29,800 --> 02:34:33,200
Speaker 1: when they lost Mario for Dan Lanning. They certainly have

2897
02:34:33,360 --> 02:34:38,160
Speaker 1: better records to show for it. But I will say this,

2898
02:34:38,640 --> 02:34:40,360
Speaker 1: Mario does have a small test for the rest of

2899
02:34:40,360 --> 02:34:45,800
Speaker 1: the season. I am. I assume Miami is eight and

2900
02:34:45,800 --> 02:34:47,680
Speaker 1: four nine, They're going to lose one or two more

2901
02:34:47,720 --> 02:34:50,640
Speaker 1: games because Now that it's over, we know two lost

2902
02:34:50,640 --> 02:34:53,359
Speaker 1: teams don't a SEC teams aren't gonna make it. Miami

2903
02:34:53,440 --> 02:34:56,360
Speaker 1: was example at a right, if last year's Miami team

2904
02:34:56,360 --> 02:34:58,160
Speaker 1: didn't get in the playoff as a tenant two team,

2905
02:34:58,240 --> 02:35:00,720
Speaker 1: this one isn't. Last year's had the best offense in

2906
02:35:00,760 --> 02:35:04,039
Speaker 1: the country and didn't get in. This team's not going

2907
02:35:04,120 --> 02:35:06,800
Speaker 1: to get in as as a tenant two at large bid.

2908
02:35:08,400 --> 02:35:10,280
Speaker 1: Seven thousand things have to happen for them to get

2909
02:35:10,280 --> 02:35:13,760
Speaker 1: in the a SEC Championship game. While it's possible, it's

2910
02:35:14,080 --> 02:35:17,960
Speaker 1: it's not probable. We're going to find out what kind

2911
02:35:18,040 --> 02:35:20,360
Speaker 1: of what kind of motivator crystal Ball is, what kind

2912
02:35:20,400 --> 02:35:23,600
Speaker 1: of coach he is, and whether these coordinators can be

2913
02:35:23,680 --> 02:35:28,520
Speaker 1: better game planners with the rest of the season. If

2914
02:35:28,560 --> 02:35:30,800
Speaker 1: we can go ten and two, then I think there

2915
02:35:31,040 --> 02:35:33,600
Speaker 1: there there is some hope for next year. This is

2916
02:35:33,680 --> 02:35:35,840
Speaker 1: nine and three, eight and four, which means say a

2917
02:35:35,920 --> 02:35:39,160
Speaker 1: loss to pitt lost to Virginia Tech on the road,

2918
02:35:39,280 --> 02:35:44,640
Speaker 1: something like that, then I think, you know, the hot

2919
02:35:44,680 --> 02:35:47,600
Speaker 1: seat begins immediately. Crystal Ball will get one more year

2920
02:35:48,160 --> 02:35:52,600
Speaker 1: for sure, because again he's responsible for this money. Right,

2921
02:35:52,840 --> 02:35:55,760
Speaker 1: if they kept Mannidaz the investment that came in, wasn't

2922
02:35:55,760 --> 02:35:57,040
Speaker 1: going to be there. There was a whole bunch of

2923
02:35:57,080 --> 02:36:00,320
Speaker 1: people who love Mario in Miami Cuban community, in the

2924
02:36:00,360 --> 02:36:02,800
Speaker 1: Miami business community who decided they said they're going to

2925
02:36:02,840 --> 02:36:04,879
Speaker 1: give Mario every resource he can to succeed at Miami.

2926
02:36:05,360 --> 02:36:09,160
Speaker 1: So he has every resource he has. The only way

2927
02:36:09,360 --> 02:36:11,600
Speaker 1: Mario goes is if the people spending the money in

2928
02:36:11,640 --> 02:36:16,560
Speaker 1: the program decide Mario should go. And that is why

2929
02:36:16,680 --> 02:36:20,520
Speaker 1: you will not see any movement this year on that front.

2930
02:36:21,200 --> 02:36:23,759
Speaker 1: Maybe next year, but certainly.

2931
02:36:23,600 --> 02:36:24,200
Speaker 2: Not this year.

2932
02:36:26,360 --> 02:36:28,400
Speaker 1: But I'll be honest, if I was Mario's boss and

2933
02:36:28,480 --> 02:36:30,680
Speaker 1: he does not report the athletic director, he reports to

2934
02:36:31,400 --> 02:36:34,800
Speaker 1: the people that write the checks, I would struggle with

2935
02:36:34,879 --> 02:36:37,200
Speaker 1: this because the man loves the university. He's done, He's

2936
02:36:37,560 --> 02:36:40,520
Speaker 1: rebuilt every other part of the program that needed rebuilding.

2937
02:36:41,920 --> 02:36:44,119
Speaker 1: The problem is his game day coaching and his game

2938
02:36:44,200 --> 02:36:48,400
Speaker 1: day plaguate game planning. If he needs to come up

2939
02:36:48,400 --> 02:36:51,840
Speaker 1: with a better plan and a better result. Look, he

2940
02:36:51,959 --> 02:36:55,320
Speaker 1: improved coordinators on the defensive side, so he deserves a

2941
02:36:55,360 --> 02:36:58,080
Speaker 1: shot at improving for a coordinator on the offensive side.

2942
02:37:03,360 --> 02:37:07,520
Speaker 1: But he's probably got one year, all right. I didn't

2943
02:37:07,520 --> 02:37:09,560
Speaker 1: watch a lot of other college football. I went from

2944
02:37:09,600 --> 02:37:14,280
Speaker 1: that drowning my sorrows in terrific barbecue at ten fifty Barbecue.

2945
02:37:14,320 --> 02:37:17,600
Speaker 1: That place was amazing that we went to in Dallas.

2946
02:37:18,600 --> 02:37:20,160
Speaker 1: So yeah, I wanted to give him a shout out.

2947
02:37:21,120 --> 02:37:23,320
Speaker 1: My daughter thinks the only reason Minimi lost is that

2948
02:37:23,480 --> 02:37:25,640
Speaker 1: the hotel we stayed at we actually stayed on the

2949
02:37:25,720 --> 02:37:29,800
Speaker 1: thirteenth floor. They actually had a thirteenth floor. I didn't

2950
02:37:29,800 --> 02:37:31,520
Speaker 1: think about it, but the minute she got into town,

2951
02:37:31,560 --> 02:37:33,080
Speaker 1: she goes, Dad, why are we staying on the thirteenth floor.

2952
02:37:33,160 --> 02:37:35,960
Speaker 1: This is terrible, lucked. We're in real trouble on Halloween night.

2953
02:37:36,080 --> 02:37:38,960
Speaker 1: We're on thirteenth floor. What are you thinking. I'm not

2954
02:37:39,040 --> 02:37:41,440
Speaker 1: a very superstitious guy. I'm not even a little stitious,

2955
02:37:42,120 --> 02:37:45,119
Speaker 1: and neither's my wife or my son.

2956
02:37:45,240 --> 02:37:46,000
Speaker 2: But my daughter was.

2957
02:37:46,080 --> 02:37:48,720
Speaker 1: And now let's just say, after this debacle of a weekend,

2958
02:37:50,400 --> 02:37:52,000
Speaker 1: she will be that person that if she gets to

2959
02:37:52,040 --> 02:37:53,880
Speaker 1: sign the thirteenth Florida Hotel, she'll say, you know what,

2960
02:37:54,120 --> 02:37:58,080
Speaker 1: I'd like to change rooms. And given how badly Miami

2961
02:37:58,160 --> 02:38:02,720
Speaker 1: played this weekend and totally destroying, you know, perhaps getting

2962
02:38:02,760 --> 02:38:05,920
Speaker 1: in the way of Miami's homecoming plans next week, I

2963
02:38:06,040 --> 02:38:08,120
Speaker 1: am going to the Miami game next week. It is homecoming.

2964
02:38:08,400 --> 02:38:10,480
Speaker 1: My daughter's really involved in it. I can't wait to

2965
02:38:10,560 --> 02:38:12,600
Speaker 1: cheer her on on that she gets to do the smoke.

2966
02:38:12,760 --> 02:38:18,200
Speaker 1: I'm very excited, you know. I will say this. I

2967
02:38:18,360 --> 02:38:21,240
Speaker 1: know this, She's now more than a little stitious when

2968
02:38:21,280 --> 02:38:23,920
Speaker 1: it comes to the third number thirteen and staying in

2969
02:38:24,000 --> 02:38:26,360
Speaker 1: a hotel with the thirteenth floor. All right, So with that,

2970
02:38:26,680 --> 02:38:28,440
Speaker 1: I'd love for you to share stories about whether you

2971
02:38:28,440 --> 02:38:31,200
Speaker 1: would have stayed if you'd have been assigned a room

2972
02:38:31,440 --> 02:38:33,920
Speaker 1: on floor thirteen and they actually had a thirteenth floor.

2973
02:38:34,120 --> 02:38:36,560
Speaker 1: The Double Tree in Dallas actually allows for third. You know,

2974
02:38:36,600 --> 02:38:38,600
Speaker 1: a lot of hotels go from twelve to fourteen. They

2975
02:38:38,640 --> 02:38:41,560
Speaker 1: don't even have the thirteen. So I'll admit I have

2976
02:38:41,640 --> 02:38:44,400
Speaker 1: not been on a thirteenth floor. Would you have changed rooms?

2977
02:38:45,720 --> 02:38:47,600
Speaker 1: Share with that with me when you get a chance.

2978
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Speaker 1: And with that, I will see you in twenty four

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Speaker 1: hours for our live election stream. It'll start two six

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Speaker 1: thirty pm Eastern Time on Tuesday. I'll see you that, Hey,