1 00:00:00,960 --> 00:00:04,440 Speaker 1: Welcome to the Betting Pros PGA Podcast. I'm Pat Fitzmorris, 2 00:00:04,640 --> 00:00:07,600 Speaker 1: joined by mister bau mcbrair. The PGA Tour heads to 3 00:00:07,720 --> 00:00:11,520 Speaker 1: one of its classic courses this week, making a stop 4 00:00:11,560 --> 00:00:14,840 Speaker 1: at Tory Pines in La Jolla, California, just north of 5 00:00:14,880 --> 00:00:18,640 Speaker 1: San Diego for the Farmers Insurance Open. On today's show, 6 00:00:18,640 --> 00:00:21,200 Speaker 1: we'll start with a quick recap of the American Express, 7 00:00:21,480 --> 00:00:23,840 Speaker 1: then we'll serve up a full betting preview of the 8 00:00:23,880 --> 00:00:27,240 Speaker 1: Farmer's Insurance Open, and we'll tell you who we're betting, 9 00:00:27,560 --> 00:00:29,360 Speaker 1: and we'll give you our one and done picks for 10 00:00:29,520 --> 00:00:31,680 Speaker 1: the week. At the end of the show, we'll keep 11 00:00:31,720 --> 00:00:34,879 Speaker 1: the recap of last week's tournament especially brief because there 12 00:00:34,960 --> 00:00:38,520 Speaker 1: was not a whole lot of drama. Sepstraca, the Big 13 00:00:38,600 --> 00:00:42,280 Speaker 1: Austrian is your American Express Champion. Straka got off to 14 00:00:42,320 --> 00:00:45,160 Speaker 1: a flying start with rounds of sixty five, sixty four 15 00:00:45,159 --> 00:00:48,360 Speaker 1: and sixty four. He didn't exactly stop the accelerator on 16 00:00:48,560 --> 00:00:51,640 Speaker 1: Sunday with his two under par seventy at the pet 17 00:00:51,680 --> 00:00:54,440 Speaker 1: die Stadium course, but he really didn't need a lights 18 00:00:54,440 --> 00:00:57,880 Speaker 1: out round. So big was his cushion going into that 19 00:00:57,960 --> 00:01:00,960 Speaker 1: final round. It was Straca's third career win on the 20 00:01:01,000 --> 00:01:04,280 Speaker 1: PGA Tour, his first since the John Deer Classic in 21 00:01:04,360 --> 00:01:08,240 Speaker 1: twenty twenty three. Justin Thomas finished second, two shots behind 22 00:01:08,280 --> 00:01:11,800 Speaker 1: Straka and Jason Day, and Justin Lower finished tied for third. 23 00:01:12,280 --> 00:01:13,800 Speaker 1: Any thoughts on the MX. 24 00:01:13,520 --> 00:01:18,319 Speaker 2: BO good old fashioned putting contests, and Sepstraca was red hot. 25 00:01:19,200 --> 00:01:22,959 Speaker 2: Sepstraca came in hot. He showed well at the Sony, 26 00:01:23,160 --> 00:01:27,440 Speaker 2: so it's it's no wonder that we said the hot 27 00:01:27,480 --> 00:01:30,360 Speaker 2: golfer was probably going to do well at the MX 28 00:01:30,800 --> 00:01:32,640 Speaker 2: and we were right. We just didn't know that that 29 00:01:32,880 --> 00:01:36,280 Speaker 2: was going to be Sepstraca, so congrats to him, but 30 00:01:36,640 --> 00:01:40,560 Speaker 2: we're moving on. It's a that was That tournament is 31 00:01:41,080 --> 00:01:43,400 Speaker 2: not the favorite of most golf betters. 32 00:01:43,760 --> 00:01:46,720 Speaker 1: No, definitely not. It's always kind of a hard one 33 00:01:46,720 --> 00:01:50,520 Speaker 1: to peg. The chalk just doesn't show up very often 34 00:01:50,960 --> 00:01:53,880 Speaker 1: other than that John Rahm victory a couple of years ago. 35 00:01:53,960 --> 00:01:58,559 Speaker 1: But now we are onto a course that often proves 36 00:01:59,080 --> 00:02:01,680 Speaker 1: to be worthy of betting chalk. It's on to the 37 00:02:01,720 --> 00:02:05,480 Speaker 1: second stop of the PGA Tours, California Swing the Farmers 38 00:02:05,520 --> 00:02:08,160 Speaker 1: Insurance Open. The first thing we need to mention about 39 00:02:08,160 --> 00:02:11,840 Speaker 1: this event. It starts on Wednesday instead of Thursday. The 40 00:02:11,880 --> 00:02:14,320 Speaker 1: PGA Tour does not want to butt up against the 41 00:02:14,440 --> 00:02:18,080 Speaker 1: NFL's Championship Sunday, so this will be a Wednesday to 42 00:02:18,200 --> 00:02:21,960 Speaker 1: Saturday tournament. Do not procrastinate in getting your bets in 43 00:02:22,120 --> 00:02:24,959 Speaker 1: for the farmers. This event will be played at Tory 44 00:02:25,040 --> 00:02:29,000 Speaker 1: Pines and the South Course at Tory Pines is an 45 00:02:29,160 --> 00:02:32,720 Speaker 1: iconic American course. It has hosted majors before, just an 46 00:02:32,720 --> 00:02:35,680 Speaker 1: outstanding test of golf, but one of the first two 47 00:02:35,760 --> 00:02:38,480 Speaker 1: rounds will be played at the Tory Pines North Course, 48 00:02:38,919 --> 00:02:43,280 Speaker 1: which is not an iconic American course. The North Course 49 00:02:43,440 --> 00:02:46,160 Speaker 1: typically plays about one and a half to two shots 50 00:02:46,160 --> 00:02:49,440 Speaker 1: easier than the South course, although last year it played 51 00:02:49,880 --> 00:02:52,760 Speaker 1: almost three shots easier. The North Course is a par 52 00:02:52,880 --> 00:02:56,959 Speaker 1: seventy two measuring and fifty eight yards. It plays easy 53 00:02:57,000 --> 00:02:59,560 Speaker 1: because of the par fives, all of which are very 54 00:02:59,600 --> 00:03:02,480 Speaker 1: reachable and two the longest of the par fives, only 55 00:03:02,520 --> 00:03:05,560 Speaker 1: five hundred and fifty six yards, the other three five 56 00:03:05,520 --> 00:03:08,800 Speaker 1: point thirty six or shorter. We'll see pros hitting irons 57 00:03:08,840 --> 00:03:12,360 Speaker 1: into these par fives for their second shots, maybe middle irons. 58 00:03:12,360 --> 00:03:15,399 Speaker 1: In some cases. The par threes are tougher. All four 59 00:03:15,400 --> 00:03:18,000 Speaker 1: of them are longer than two hundred yards, and there 60 00:03:18,000 --> 00:03:22,079 Speaker 1: are three par fours shorter than four hundred yards here 61 00:03:22,400 --> 00:03:25,800 Speaker 1: two of them are under three p fifty and potentially drivable. 62 00:03:26,200 --> 00:03:29,280 Speaker 1: But I went back and looked at what the last 63 00:03:29,360 --> 00:03:32,639 Speaker 1: five Farmers Insurance Open winners shot on the North Course 64 00:03:33,160 --> 00:03:37,960 Speaker 1: sixty nine, sixty eight, sixty seven, sixty four and sixty eight. 65 00:03:38,560 --> 00:03:41,240 Speaker 1: So the last five winners were at least three hunder 66 00:03:41,280 --> 00:03:42,760 Speaker 1: par on the North course. If you want to make 67 00:03:42,760 --> 00:03:45,240 Speaker 1: any noise at the Farmers, you had best have a 68 00:03:45,240 --> 00:03:49,280 Speaker 1: good round on the North Course. As for the South Course, 69 00:03:49,680 --> 00:03:52,400 Speaker 1: it is a brute. It is a par seventy two 70 00:03:52,680 --> 00:03:57,320 Speaker 1: measuring seven seven hundred and sixty five yards. It's the 71 00:03:57,360 --> 00:04:01,120 Speaker 1: course that obviously favors the big hitters. Are also narrow. 72 00:04:01,400 --> 00:04:04,160 Speaker 1: I believe that are the third narrowest fairways of any 73 00:04:04,200 --> 00:04:07,680 Speaker 1: tour course. But the rough, at least the rough off 74 00:04:07,720 --> 00:04:10,800 Speaker 1: the fairways not overly penal. You can miss fairways and 75 00:04:10,880 --> 00:04:14,920 Speaker 1: still hit greens on this course. Last week in our 76 00:04:15,040 --> 00:04:17,919 Speaker 1: American Express preview, we talked about the importance of wedge 77 00:04:17,960 --> 00:04:20,680 Speaker 1: and short iron play because players would be hitting so 78 00:04:20,720 --> 00:04:22,760 Speaker 1: many of their approaches from one hundred and fifty yards 79 00:04:22,760 --> 00:04:25,159 Speaker 1: and in this week most of the approachots are going 80 00:04:25,240 --> 00:04:27,680 Speaker 1: to be from more than one hundred and fifty yards out. 81 00:04:28,120 --> 00:04:31,240 Speaker 1: Middle iron and long iron play will be critical at 82 00:04:31,240 --> 00:04:34,280 Speaker 1: the Farmer's Insurance Open. The greens of tory Pines are 83 00:04:34,320 --> 00:04:39,239 Speaker 1: poa anua poa greens tend to roll inconsistently at times. 84 00:04:39,440 --> 00:04:41,520 Speaker 1: I believe tory Pine's South has been one of the 85 00:04:41,520 --> 00:04:45,560 Speaker 1: hardest courses on tour in the Strokes game putting category. 86 00:04:45,920 --> 00:04:48,280 Speaker 1: And if you miss these greens, good luck. There are 87 00:04:48,279 --> 00:04:52,800 Speaker 1: some thick, chewy rough surrounding these greens. Bottom line, tory 88 00:04:52,839 --> 00:04:56,000 Speaker 1: Pine South is a stern test. And by the way, 89 00:04:56,040 --> 00:04:58,480 Speaker 1: we learned earlier today that tory Pines is also going 90 00:04:58,480 --> 00:05:01,560 Speaker 1: to be hosting the Genesis and Vatitional in a few weeks. 91 00:05:01,600 --> 00:05:04,839 Speaker 1: They're moving the Genesis from Riviera Country Club in Los 92 00:05:04,880 --> 00:05:07,359 Speaker 1: Angeles because of the fires, so we are going to 93 00:05:07,360 --> 00:05:09,880 Speaker 1: get a big helping of this great course over the 94 00:05:09,920 --> 00:05:14,280 Speaker 1: next month. The defending Farmers Insurance Open champion is Matthew Pavallon. 95 00:05:14,760 --> 00:05:18,640 Speaker 1: The Frenchman was a surprise winner last year, finishing thirteen 96 00:05:18,720 --> 00:05:22,159 Speaker 1: under par and making a dramatic birdie from out of 97 00:05:22,160 --> 00:05:24,880 Speaker 1: a fairway bunker on the seventy second hole to beat 98 00:05:25,160 --> 00:05:28,960 Speaker 1: Nikolai Hoygard by one stroke. Max Homo won here in 99 00:05:29,000 --> 00:05:32,480 Speaker 1: twenty twenty three after finishing minus thirteen, winning by two 100 00:05:32,520 --> 00:05:36,080 Speaker 1: strokes over Keegan Bradley. Luke Liszt won the Farmers in 101 00:05:36,120 --> 00:05:39,800 Speaker 1: twenty twenty two, finishing minus fifteen and beating will Zala 102 00:05:39,880 --> 00:05:43,040 Speaker 1: Tauris in a playoff. Patrick Reid shot minus fourteen to 103 00:05:43,120 --> 00:05:46,280 Speaker 1: win his win by five strokes in twenty twenty one, 104 00:05:46,360 --> 00:05:49,039 Speaker 1: and Mark Leishman won here in twenty twenty with the 105 00:05:49,040 --> 00:05:52,680 Speaker 1: score of minus fifteen. The forecast bow calls for a 106 00:05:52,760 --> 00:05:55,960 Speaker 1: hive sixty seven on Wednesday and a high seventy seven 107 00:05:55,960 --> 00:05:59,280 Speaker 1: on Thursday, with wins ranging from five to fifteen miles 108 00:05:59,320 --> 00:06:01,720 Speaker 1: an hour. Then it gets chillier on the weekend with 109 00:06:01,800 --> 00:06:04,800 Speaker 1: highs in the upper fifties on Friday and Saturday, and 110 00:06:04,839 --> 00:06:07,400 Speaker 1: we could have some wind on the final day with 111 00:06:07,440 --> 00:06:10,560 Speaker 1: a breeze expected to be ten to twenty miles an hour. 112 00:06:11,120 --> 00:06:13,520 Speaker 1: Bowe your thoughts on Tory Pines. 113 00:06:13,440 --> 00:06:16,560 Speaker 2: Just an iconic track. It's the south course being with 114 00:06:16,640 --> 00:06:20,200 Speaker 2: three of the four rounds is the main focus. But 115 00:06:20,600 --> 00:06:23,240 Speaker 2: like you said, you can't ignore the one round that 116 00:06:23,240 --> 00:06:26,680 Speaker 2: they're all going to play on the north course. That's 117 00:06:27,480 --> 00:06:29,800 Speaker 2: where you have to make your hay. At least gives 118 00:06:29,839 --> 00:06:32,880 Speaker 2: you a really good head start into the weekend if 119 00:06:32,920 --> 00:06:36,400 Speaker 2: you can put together a really solid sub seventy round 120 00:06:36,800 --> 00:06:38,960 Speaker 2: at the north course. Because the South course is going 121 00:06:39,040 --> 00:06:41,840 Speaker 2: to push every button that you have, You're going to 122 00:06:41,920 --> 00:06:44,400 Speaker 2: have to hit the wall well off the tee. Driving 123 00:06:44,440 --> 00:06:47,800 Speaker 2: distances a plus here, but we've seen guys play lights 124 00:06:47,839 --> 00:06:51,120 Speaker 2: out on approach and in short game and win despite 125 00:06:51,200 --> 00:06:59,080 Speaker 2: not being long hitters. Patrick Reid and Matthew Pavon both 126 00:06:59,200 --> 00:07:03,359 Speaker 2: were absolutely stellar over the last couple of years on 127 00:07:03,520 --> 00:07:07,479 Speaker 2: short game and approach game. So yes, it does help 128 00:07:07,520 --> 00:07:09,440 Speaker 2: to hit the ball along ways on a course that's 129 00:07:09,480 --> 00:07:14,040 Speaker 2: pushing seventy eight hundred yards. But the short game is 130 00:07:14,400 --> 00:07:17,640 Speaker 2: the most important part. Because you said the green side 131 00:07:17,720 --> 00:07:21,080 Speaker 2: ruff is nasty, the greens are hard to hold, which 132 00:07:21,160 --> 00:07:24,360 Speaker 2: I do think lends to a little bit more penal 133 00:07:24,760 --> 00:07:27,720 Speaker 2: fairway rough. It might not be very long and it 134 00:07:27,800 --> 00:07:31,200 Speaker 2: might not prevent you from reaching the green, but holdingen 135 00:07:31,680 --> 00:07:34,840 Speaker 2: the poana greens and then putting out on those greens 136 00:07:35,040 --> 00:07:39,200 Speaker 2: that's where the challenge really is. So one third plus 137 00:07:39,280 --> 00:07:42,320 Speaker 2: of these approach shots are for more than two hundred yards, 138 00:07:42,680 --> 00:07:46,240 Speaker 2: So that's a bucket that I'm interested in. Stark contrasts 139 00:07:46,240 --> 00:07:49,720 Speaker 2: to last week where you have a whole different demographic 140 00:07:49,800 --> 00:07:52,560 Speaker 2: of golfers who are in play this week because the 141 00:07:52,640 --> 00:07:55,640 Speaker 2: course is so different from what we've seen over the 142 00:07:55,680 --> 00:07:56,520 Speaker 2: last couple of weeks. 143 00:07:57,680 --> 00:08:01,520 Speaker 1: Yeah, good point about the rough off. Maybe it's not 144 00:08:01,720 --> 00:08:04,920 Speaker 1: as daunting as US Open rof, but you do want 145 00:08:04,920 --> 00:08:06,720 Speaker 1: to be able to spin it off the fairway to 146 00:08:06,880 --> 00:08:10,280 Speaker 1: hold these greens. We will get to the odds in 147 00:08:10,320 --> 00:08:11,680 Speaker 1: a moment, but first. 148 00:08:12,080 --> 00:08:16,280 Speaker 2: Download the free Betting Pros app for iOS and Android. 149 00:08:16,800 --> 00:08:20,320 Speaker 2: With Sportsbooks Sync, you can automatically track your bets across 150 00:08:20,360 --> 00:08:25,000 Speaker 2: all major sportsbooks in one spot. Easily monitor your bet 151 00:08:25,040 --> 00:08:29,480 Speaker 2: performance by sport and bet type, including game picks, props, 152 00:08:29,520 --> 00:08:34,160 Speaker 2: and parlays. Create custom betting systems to find winning trends 153 00:08:34,360 --> 00:08:38,319 Speaker 2: and profitable opportunities. Get a free trial of Betting Pros 154 00:08:38,360 --> 00:08:42,040 Speaker 2: Premium by downloading the app and activating your trial on 155 00:08:42,120 --> 00:08:43,200 Speaker 2: the upgrade screen. 156 00:08:43,920 --> 00:08:47,320 Speaker 1: Now for the Farmer's Insurance Open odds. All odds are 157 00:08:47,440 --> 00:08:51,200 Speaker 1: courtesy of DraftKings as of Monday morning. We will start 158 00:08:51,240 --> 00:08:54,040 Speaker 1: with the favorites still know Scottie Scheffler because of his 159 00:08:54,120 --> 00:08:59,240 Speaker 1: hand injury, his return is approaching. However, Colin Morrikawa has 160 00:08:59,280 --> 00:09:02,280 Speaker 1: also pulled out this event, So the co favorites are 161 00:09:02,320 --> 00:09:06,280 Speaker 1: Hideki Matsuyama and lidveg Oberg at ten to one. Tony 162 00:09:06,320 --> 00:09:09,240 Speaker 1: Finow and Sung J. M are twenty to one. Keegan 163 00:09:09,240 --> 00:09:12,320 Speaker 1: Bradley is twenty two to one. Will Zalatorus and Max 164 00:09:12,400 --> 00:09:15,440 Speaker 1: Grazerman are twenty five to one. Jason Day is twenty 165 00:09:15,480 --> 00:09:19,520 Speaker 1: eight to one. Shane Lowry, Sahith Thagala and Maverick McNeely 166 00:09:19,600 --> 00:09:23,400 Speaker 1: are thirty to one, Taylor Pendrith, Max Homa and Kurt 167 00:09:23,440 --> 00:09:26,400 Speaker 1: Kidiyama are thirty five to one, and Seewhoo Kim and 168 00:09:26,480 --> 00:09:29,360 Speaker 1: Luke Clanton are forty to one. Who do you like 169 00:09:29,400 --> 00:09:30,480 Speaker 1: from among the favorites? 170 00:09:30,480 --> 00:09:33,600 Speaker 2: Baul And this is a favorites front runner type of event. 171 00:09:34,600 --> 00:09:37,280 Speaker 2: I am also I wanted to little add a little 172 00:09:37,280 --> 00:09:41,080 Speaker 2: to the Tory Pines hosting the Genesis as well. Is 173 00:09:41,200 --> 00:09:43,760 Speaker 2: I think with a tournament having four rounds at the 174 00:09:43,800 --> 00:09:46,200 Speaker 2: South Course, they might even make it a little tougher 175 00:09:46,200 --> 00:09:49,040 Speaker 2: because the Genesis is one of those signature events, so 176 00:09:49,120 --> 00:09:51,320 Speaker 2: we might see a whole different animal in the South 177 00:09:51,360 --> 00:09:54,520 Speaker 2: course for the Genesis this week, it's gonna be a 178 00:09:54,520 --> 00:09:59,480 Speaker 2: little bit more manageable. The favorites are still there. I 179 00:09:59,520 --> 00:10:03,200 Speaker 2: had a hard time picking between Ludwig Oberg and Hideki 180 00:10:03,240 --> 00:10:06,640 Speaker 2: Matziyama as who I would favor as a chalk pick. 181 00:10:07,679 --> 00:10:10,960 Speaker 2: I landed on Oberg, but I still might get some 182 00:10:11,040 --> 00:10:14,200 Speaker 2: action on Hideki with how well he's playing, and especially 183 00:10:14,280 --> 00:10:18,280 Speaker 2: how well he's played the Southern California courses over his career. 184 00:10:18,760 --> 00:10:23,080 Speaker 2: This one, notwithstanding the long iron approach, is obviously Hideki's wheelhouse. 185 00:10:23,600 --> 00:10:27,400 Speaker 2: Oberg has been streaky and he hasn't been the best scrambler, 186 00:10:27,440 --> 00:10:30,400 Speaker 2: but everywhere else in his game is just so like 187 00:10:30,679 --> 00:10:35,040 Speaker 2: just Sterling Silver, He's just so, He's almost perfect, and 188 00:10:35,160 --> 00:10:38,199 Speaker 2: Hideki has just got all the firepower in the world. 189 00:10:38,280 --> 00:10:41,920 Speaker 2: So I'm going to lean Oberg for now. But I 190 00:10:41,960 --> 00:10:44,440 Speaker 2: wouldn't fault anybody if they wanted to throw ten to 191 00:10:44,480 --> 00:10:47,520 Speaker 2: one odds on Hideki Matziama to win this thing outright, 192 00:10:48,080 --> 00:10:51,160 Speaker 2: they're both absolute locks for top five bets in my 193 00:10:51,280 --> 00:10:56,040 Speaker 2: on my card that that's really where I'm starting. And 194 00:10:56,080 --> 00:10:58,520 Speaker 2: then I was able to find Wills Ala Taurus at 195 00:10:58,520 --> 00:11:01,600 Speaker 2: twenty eight to one, and I really love that, especially 196 00:11:01,679 --> 00:11:04,240 Speaker 2: with how his game has lined up with Tory Pines 197 00:11:04,280 --> 00:11:04,840 Speaker 2: in the past. 198 00:11:06,559 --> 00:11:10,120 Speaker 1: Yeah, Hydeki is in fine form. Won the Century, was 199 00:11:10,160 --> 00:11:13,280 Speaker 1: sixteenth at the Sony. He's finished ninth and thirteenth in 200 00:11:13,360 --> 00:11:15,760 Speaker 1: his last two appearances at the Farmers, and was third 201 00:11:15,800 --> 00:11:21,360 Speaker 1: here in twenty nineteen. Oberg brief track record on tour, 202 00:11:21,440 --> 00:11:24,280 Speaker 1: but he did finish ninth in his debut here last year, 203 00:11:24,320 --> 00:11:26,640 Speaker 1: and he was fifth at the Century a few weeks ago. 204 00:11:27,480 --> 00:11:30,040 Speaker 1: He was also fourteenth, and Strokes gained off the tee 205 00:11:30,360 --> 00:11:34,800 Speaker 1: last season, so yeah, he definitely fits the course. Xalatoris 206 00:11:34,920 --> 00:11:38,960 Speaker 1: just a terrific ball striker. His last four Farmers Insurance 207 00:11:39,000 --> 00:11:45,720 Speaker 1: Open finishes seventh, seventh, second miscut, thirteenth, and I think 208 00:11:45,720 --> 00:11:47,440 Speaker 1: the miscut might have been when he was dealing with 209 00:11:47,480 --> 00:11:50,920 Speaker 1: the back issues and he's coming off of twelfth at 210 00:11:50,920 --> 00:11:52,000 Speaker 1: the amex. 211 00:11:53,320 --> 00:11:53,440 Speaker 2: Bo. 212 00:11:53,600 --> 00:11:56,920 Speaker 1: Tony Finow loves Tory Pines. He's finished top ten in 213 00:11:57,000 --> 00:11:59,880 Speaker 1: six of his last eight appearances at the Farmers Insurance Open, 214 00:12:00,080 --> 00:12:02,240 Speaker 1: and one of the non top ten finishes over that 215 00:12:02,280 --> 00:12:05,640 Speaker 1: stretch was a thirteenth. But he's a guy who's had 216 00:12:05,679 --> 00:12:07,040 Speaker 1: trouble closing the deal. 217 00:12:07,400 --> 00:12:11,280 Speaker 2: Yeah, And he's an awful putter unless he catches fire 218 00:12:11,320 --> 00:12:13,720 Speaker 2: with the flat stick. I just don't know how much 219 00:12:13,920 --> 00:12:17,559 Speaker 2: upside he has. He also hasn't been overly great at 220 00:12:17,600 --> 00:12:21,360 Speaker 2: scrambling or avoiding bogies because of the putting coming and 221 00:12:21,400 --> 00:12:24,040 Speaker 2: going as we were, unless he was in Detroit where 222 00:12:24,120 --> 00:12:26,559 Speaker 2: we don't have to worry about him. Tony fen Now 223 00:12:26,600 --> 00:12:29,600 Speaker 2: has of course the firepower to win here, but I 224 00:12:29,760 --> 00:12:32,120 Speaker 2: just don't know that I would throw a bet on him, 225 00:12:32,240 --> 00:12:35,000 Speaker 2: although the odds are pretty appealing. If you're getting twenty 226 00:12:35,000 --> 00:12:37,840 Speaker 2: to one on Tony Feen out here, that's pretty that's 227 00:12:37,840 --> 00:12:39,360 Speaker 2: pretty appealing. I get it. 228 00:12:40,640 --> 00:12:43,520 Speaker 1: Yeah, And I like I dock the bad putters less 229 00:12:43,840 --> 00:12:47,920 Speaker 1: on PAA greens. I think like I am less excited 230 00:12:47,960 --> 00:12:53,080 Speaker 1: to bet the sharpshooter putters and more willing to bet 231 00:12:53,120 --> 00:12:55,040 Speaker 1: the not great putters on Paul. 232 00:12:55,200 --> 00:12:55,400 Speaker 3: Yeah. 233 00:12:55,400 --> 00:12:59,600 Speaker 2: And it's a drastic difference when you filter your modeling 234 00:12:59,720 --> 00:13:03,040 Speaker 2: four POE greens. Is you get an entirely different crop 235 00:13:03,080 --> 00:13:06,240 Speaker 2: of golfers who might not otherwise putt well on any 236 00:13:06,240 --> 00:13:09,800 Speaker 2: other surface, but they just have a knack for poana greens. 237 00:13:10,200 --> 00:13:13,640 Speaker 2: And if you get a Poe a specialist like Willie 238 00:13:13,720 --> 00:13:18,160 Speaker 2: Ze like Tony Feenow, it's apparent that's a whole different 239 00:13:18,240 --> 00:13:22,640 Speaker 2: breed because they might struggle to read bermuda or bendgrass. 240 00:13:22,880 --> 00:13:25,760 Speaker 2: But Poana is just a little bit unpredictable because it 241 00:13:25,800 --> 00:13:28,400 Speaker 2: gets a little crusty later in the day and you 242 00:13:28,520 --> 00:13:32,480 Speaker 2: just cut you It's still true, but it's also a 243 00:13:32,520 --> 00:13:36,280 Speaker 2: little more shaky, like you're not as you don't assume 244 00:13:36,320 --> 00:13:38,040 Speaker 2: the ball is going to go in when it starts 245 00:13:38,080 --> 00:13:41,920 Speaker 2: wobbling towards the hole on Poea Greens because if it's 246 00:13:41,920 --> 00:13:45,400 Speaker 2: in the late afternoon round, you're you preally pretty much 247 00:13:45,440 --> 00:13:48,400 Speaker 2: can't guess whether it's going to hold its line or not. 248 00:13:49,760 --> 00:13:52,079 Speaker 1: Yeah, you will see a lot of players shaking their 249 00:13:52,120 --> 00:13:55,720 Speaker 1: heads scornfully after miss pous this week. That is a guarantee. 250 00:13:56,200 --> 00:13:57,959 Speaker 1: Quick notes on a few of the other favorites. Sung 251 00:13:58,040 --> 00:14:00,800 Speaker 1: JM missed the cut here, you're buten. In his two 252 00:14:00,840 --> 00:14:04,640 Speaker 1: previous trips to the Farmers before the misscut sixth and fourth, 253 00:14:05,600 --> 00:14:07,800 Speaker 1: Keigan Bradley has finished top five and three of his 254 00:14:07,920 --> 00:14:10,920 Speaker 1: last seven starts at the Farmers. Shane Lowry is a 255 00:14:10,920 --> 00:14:14,079 Speaker 1: good ball striker and if it's cold and windy on 256 00:14:14,120 --> 00:14:16,880 Speaker 1: the final Day as expected, the irishman could have a 257 00:14:16,880 --> 00:14:20,520 Speaker 1: bit of an edge there if he's in contention. California 258 00:14:20,600 --> 00:14:23,840 Speaker 1: native Max Homa has really shown an aptitude for Tory Pines. 259 00:14:23,840 --> 00:14:26,840 Speaker 1: He's won here in twenty twenty three, finished top twenty 260 00:14:26,880 --> 00:14:30,160 Speaker 1: here in four of his last five trips, and Jason 261 00:14:30,240 --> 00:14:33,760 Speaker 1: Day one here in twenty eighteen, four top tens here 262 00:14:33,760 --> 00:14:36,800 Speaker 1: in his last seven years, and he has finished or 263 00:14:37,000 --> 00:14:39,960 Speaker 1: is coming off a third place finish at the American 264 00:14:39,960 --> 00:14:42,920 Speaker 1: Express last week. All right, bo, let's look at some 265 00:14:43,000 --> 00:14:47,640 Speaker 1: of the mid range options. Akshay Battia is forty five 266 00:14:47,680 --> 00:14:50,640 Speaker 1: to one, Ben Griffin, Bow Hostler and Aaron Raye are 267 00:14:50,680 --> 00:14:53,840 Speaker 1: fifty to one. Jj Spahn, Harry Hall and Mark Hubbard 268 00:14:53,840 --> 00:14:58,200 Speaker 1: are fifty five to one. Justin Rose, Thomas Dietree, Daniel 269 00:14:58,240 --> 00:15:02,960 Speaker 1: Berger and Steven Jaeger are sixty to one, Michael Thorbjornsen 270 00:15:03,120 --> 00:15:05,360 Speaker 1: is sixty five to one, and at seventy to one 271 00:15:05,400 --> 00:15:09,160 Speaker 1: are Doug gimm Austin Ek wrote, Nicholas Norgard and mac 272 00:15:09,400 --> 00:15:13,320 Speaker 1: Meiser do any of the mid range plays sing to 273 00:15:13,600 --> 00:15:14,000 Speaker 1: this week? 274 00:15:14,040 --> 00:15:16,440 Speaker 2: Both? Only one of those popped up at the very 275 00:15:16,480 --> 00:15:19,920 Speaker 2: top of my model, and that was Justin Rose. Another 276 00:15:20,040 --> 00:15:23,040 Speaker 2: course that demands long iron play, and Justin Rose is 277 00:15:23,080 --> 00:15:25,840 Speaker 2: among the best in the world at those long irons, 278 00:15:25,880 --> 00:15:29,120 Speaker 2: those mid irons approach shots. He's also a pretty good 279 00:15:29,160 --> 00:15:34,200 Speaker 2: birdie maker when the conditions are tougher. He's pretty much 280 00:15:34,200 --> 00:15:37,240 Speaker 2: at tory Pine specialist at this point and at sixty 281 00:15:37,280 --> 00:15:41,000 Speaker 2: to one, with how he's kind of kept himself relevant 282 00:15:41,040 --> 00:15:43,480 Speaker 2: on tour over the last couple of years, I'm pretty 283 00:15:43,480 --> 00:15:46,400 Speaker 2: impressed with what I've seen from Justin Rose, and at 284 00:15:46,440 --> 00:15:48,200 Speaker 2: sixty to one, I think that that's kind of a 285 00:15:48,240 --> 00:15:50,320 Speaker 2: miss price for his history here. 286 00:15:51,560 --> 00:15:54,840 Speaker 1: Yeah, Rose has four top tens in his last eight 287 00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:58,040 Speaker 1: trips to tory Pine, so even when he hasn't been 288 00:15:58,080 --> 00:16:02,520 Speaker 1: in great form, he's played this course pretty well. Young 289 00:16:02,560 --> 00:16:07,000 Speaker 1: mister Akshay Battia finished thirteenth in his Farmer's debut last year. 290 00:16:08,000 --> 00:16:10,600 Speaker 1: Bo Hostler has two top tens here in the last 291 00:16:10,640 --> 00:16:12,880 Speaker 1: five years, although in the other three starts he missed 292 00:16:12,880 --> 00:16:15,360 Speaker 1: the Cots, but he is coming off a twelfth place 293 00:16:15,400 --> 00:16:18,600 Speaker 1: finish at the American Express and Bo your guy, Kurt 294 00:16:18,640 --> 00:16:24,520 Speaker 1: Kidiama shout out NorCal Strong off the tee tends to 295 00:16:24,600 --> 00:16:27,600 Speaker 1: play tough course as well. I'm almost a little surprised 296 00:16:27,640 --> 00:16:28,440 Speaker 1: you didn't mention him. 297 00:16:28,840 --> 00:16:32,640 Speaker 2: I really like his game here, but his odds are 298 00:16:32,720 --> 00:16:35,680 Speaker 2: way too short for what he's been doing. Thirty five 299 00:16:35,720 --> 00:16:38,560 Speaker 2: to one is just too short for me to bet on. 300 00:16:39,400 --> 00:16:41,840 Speaker 2: But I wouldn't be surprised if he does make some 301 00:16:41,960 --> 00:16:44,520 Speaker 2: noise here, because he does have the game to fit 302 00:16:44,560 --> 00:16:46,640 Speaker 2: at great long ron player. He's number two in this 303 00:16:46,840 --> 00:16:51,360 Speaker 2: entire field for approach over two hundred yards proximity, and 304 00:16:51,560 --> 00:16:54,400 Speaker 2: he's been He's been writing kind of a hot putter lately. 305 00:16:55,000 --> 00:16:57,720 Speaker 2: I just worry about his scrambling, his ability to get 306 00:16:57,800 --> 00:17:00,160 Speaker 2: up and down if he does miss the greens. That 307 00:17:00,560 --> 00:17:03,040 Speaker 2: kind of does play into a little bit of a 308 00:17:03,720 --> 00:17:06,240 Speaker 2: in the back of my mind worrying about Kitty Yam. 309 00:17:06,280 --> 00:17:09,480 Speaker 2: At thirty five to one on most books, that's just 310 00:17:09,480 --> 00:17:12,119 Speaker 2: too short for me to be comfortable, especially in this 311 00:17:12,240 --> 00:17:14,679 Speaker 2: strong of a field. But you're right, he is a 312 00:17:14,720 --> 00:17:18,600 Speaker 2: grinder that makes hay On really tough courses make look 313 00:17:18,680 --> 00:17:21,760 Speaker 2: really it makes it look pretty easy too, along the 314 00:17:21,800 --> 00:17:24,879 Speaker 2: lines of Justin Rose. Very similar player to Justin Rose, 315 00:17:25,520 --> 00:17:28,760 Speaker 2: but Rose is giving me much better value for that bet. 316 00:17:29,880 --> 00:17:32,440 Speaker 1: Yeah, I hear you about the price on Kitty Yama, 317 00:17:32,480 --> 00:17:34,800 Speaker 1: and it seems like the sports books are coming around 318 00:17:34,880 --> 00:17:37,080 Speaker 1: and are starting to like him almost as much as 319 00:17:37,080 --> 00:17:39,560 Speaker 1: you do, Baul. I've been sort of surprised at some 320 00:17:39,600 --> 00:17:42,160 Speaker 1: of the opening odds we've seen for Kirk Kitty Yama 321 00:17:42,240 --> 00:17:42,680 Speaker 1: this year. 322 00:17:42,720 --> 00:17:43,399 Speaker 2: They know something. 323 00:17:45,640 --> 00:17:47,800 Speaker 1: What about long shots? Is there anyone with odds of 324 00:17:47,840 --> 00:17:50,640 Speaker 1: seventy five to one or longer you find compelling? 325 00:17:50,720 --> 00:17:53,080 Speaker 2: Funny? You should ask? I have three on my betting 326 00:17:53,119 --> 00:17:56,200 Speaker 2: card this week. I will be betting pretty heavily on 327 00:17:56,240 --> 00:17:59,760 Speaker 2: the favorites, because that's kind of been the theme here. 328 00:18:00,200 --> 00:18:03,240 Speaker 2: But starting with Gary Woodland at ninety to one, this 329 00:18:03,320 --> 00:18:06,760 Speaker 2: is a player who was recovering from literal brain surgery 330 00:18:06,840 --> 00:18:10,920 Speaker 2: last year, still ended up finishing the season pretty well, 331 00:18:11,280 --> 00:18:14,399 Speaker 2: and he's looked really sharp early on this season. Gary 332 00:18:14,440 --> 00:18:17,520 Speaker 2: Woodland on a course like this a great long iron player. 333 00:18:17,560 --> 00:18:20,960 Speaker 2: He's long off the tee and if his short game 334 00:18:21,000 --> 00:18:23,960 Speaker 2: can hold up, this is a guy who can absolutely 335 00:18:23,960 --> 00:18:26,600 Speaker 2: win this tournament. Ninety to one for him is just 336 00:18:26,600 --> 00:18:29,399 Speaker 2: a great value to throw a few bucks on the 337 00:18:29,480 --> 00:18:35,639 Speaker 2: defending champion, Matthew Pavon. He's the quintessential grinder. I wasn't 338 00:18:35,720 --> 00:18:38,320 Speaker 2: overly surprised that he won last year, even though he 339 00:18:38,440 --> 00:18:42,359 Speaker 2: wasn't really on anybody's radar to win that tournament. But 340 00:18:42,440 --> 00:18:45,720 Speaker 2: we've seen since then that these types of events do 341 00:18:45,840 --> 00:18:49,000 Speaker 2: favor somebody who doesn't make a lot of mistakes, and 342 00:18:49,119 --> 00:18:52,800 Speaker 2: Matthew Pavon does not make very many mistakes. And that's 343 00:18:52,920 --> 00:18:54,600 Speaker 2: really going to play here. One hundred and ten to 344 00:18:54,680 --> 00:18:57,320 Speaker 2: one for a defending champion in a field that's kind 345 00:18:57,320 --> 00:18:59,399 Speaker 2: of lost a little bit of its top end luster. 346 00:19:00,080 --> 00:19:02,400 Speaker 2: That's just a misprice that I'm going to take advantage 347 00:19:02,400 --> 00:19:05,640 Speaker 2: of and a little deep, deep shot on a guy 348 00:19:05,680 --> 00:19:08,879 Speaker 2: who's been around a really long time. He came in 349 00:19:08,920 --> 00:19:12,119 Speaker 2: at number three in my entire model overall, I'm going 350 00:19:12,160 --> 00:19:14,480 Speaker 2: to throw a little bit on Ryan Palmer at four 351 00:19:14,560 --> 00:19:19,119 Speaker 2: hundred to one. He's got great history here and for 352 00:19:19,240 --> 00:19:22,120 Speaker 2: as consistent as he is, I don't know that he'll win, 353 00:19:22,240 --> 00:19:25,639 Speaker 2: but I can throw a pretty good decent payout for 354 00:19:25,720 --> 00:19:29,199 Speaker 2: a top twenty or a top ten here. But you know, 355 00:19:29,240 --> 00:19:31,160 Speaker 2: I'm going to throw a few bucks on four hundred 356 00:19:31,200 --> 00:19:33,120 Speaker 2: to one Ryan Palmer at Tory Pines. 357 00:19:34,040 --> 00:19:36,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, that is not a bad price for guy who's 358 00:19:36,760 --> 00:19:39,400 Speaker 1: just generally played well in California. Yeah, I think over 359 00:19:39,400 --> 00:19:40,640 Speaker 1: the years he's. 360 00:19:40,240 --> 00:19:42,280 Speaker 2: One of those Poana specialists. 361 00:19:43,240 --> 00:19:46,560 Speaker 1: Yeah, I was shocked by the one hundred and ten 362 00:19:46,600 --> 00:19:50,560 Speaker 1: to one odds for Matthew Pavaughan. I'm taking some of 363 00:19:50,560 --> 00:19:54,080 Speaker 1: that too, Bo. And you know I've got to mention 364 00:19:54,160 --> 00:19:57,480 Speaker 1: our guy Jake Napp, Yeah, big hitter who finished third 365 00:19:57,560 --> 00:20:01,960 Speaker 1: here last year in his Far Insurance Open debut two 366 00:20:02,080 --> 00:20:04,320 Speaker 1: hundred and fifty to one. Yeah, I have to get 367 00:20:04,560 --> 00:20:06,840 Speaker 1: a little of that action too. So let's get to 368 00:20:06,880 --> 00:20:09,200 Speaker 1: our early betting cards, Bo, who are you betting as 369 00:20:09,240 --> 00:20:09,639 Speaker 1: of now? 370 00:20:09,920 --> 00:20:13,240 Speaker 2: So I will have ludvig Olberg at ten to one. 371 00:20:13,359 --> 00:20:16,679 Speaker 2: I'll probably end up adding some Hideki just to feel something, 372 00:20:16,760 --> 00:20:20,240 Speaker 2: because every time I've refused to bet Hideki, he burns 373 00:20:20,280 --> 00:20:23,520 Speaker 2: me and wins the tournament. Even if he's not happy 374 00:20:23,560 --> 00:20:27,600 Speaker 2: with his performance, he still ends up winning. But Ober 375 00:20:27,640 --> 00:20:30,080 Speaker 2: again Hideki are both getting action from me. Willy z 376 00:20:30,240 --> 00:20:33,120 Speaker 2: Wills Alatorus at twenty eight to one, and then I'm 377 00:20:33,160 --> 00:20:35,440 Speaker 2: going to be sprinkling a lot of plays on Gary 378 00:20:35,480 --> 00:20:38,840 Speaker 2: Woodland at ninety, Matthew Pavon at one ten, and Ryan 379 00:20:38,840 --> 00:20:43,360 Speaker 2: Palmer at four hundred. Justin Rose is one that I'm 380 00:20:43,480 --> 00:20:47,560 Speaker 2: still thinking about at sixty to one, for which how 381 00:20:47,640 --> 00:20:49,160 Speaker 2: much exposure I'm gonna get. 382 00:20:50,960 --> 00:20:53,280 Speaker 1: So for me. As of right now, I have got 383 00:20:53,359 --> 00:20:56,440 Speaker 1: Lavig Oberg at ten to one. I've got Shane Lowry 384 00:20:56,440 --> 00:20:58,560 Speaker 1: at thirty to one, with a top five kicker at 385 00:20:58,640 --> 00:21:02,959 Speaker 1: six to one. Final top ten only. I'm betting right 386 00:21:02,960 --> 00:21:04,920 Speaker 1: now plus one ninety. I just think that's a good 387 00:21:04,960 --> 00:21:08,480 Speaker 1: percentage play. Justin Rose. I also the top ten bet 388 00:21:08,520 --> 00:21:11,640 Speaker 1: on at plus four fifty Matthew Pavon at one hundred 389 00:21:11,680 --> 00:21:14,080 Speaker 1: and ten to one. Not sure if i want to 390 00:21:14,080 --> 00:21:16,160 Speaker 1: go top five or top ten. Maybe I'll just look 391 00:21:16,200 --> 00:21:19,960 Speaker 1: to cash out if he's in contention into the weekend. 392 00:21:20,320 --> 00:21:22,919 Speaker 1: And finally Jake Knapp at two hundred and fifty to 393 00:21:22,960 --> 00:21:26,359 Speaker 1: one and forty to one for a top five. I 394 00:21:26,440 --> 00:21:29,720 Speaker 1: like the odds both of those bets. Now for the 395 00:21:29,760 --> 00:21:32,920 Speaker 1: one and done competition, I had Seewu Kim last week 396 00:21:33,000 --> 00:21:35,199 Speaker 1: at the American Express. He tied for fifty first and 397 00:21:35,200 --> 00:21:38,720 Speaker 1: earned me a whopping twenty one thirty two dollars. 398 00:21:39,160 --> 00:21:40,960 Speaker 2: You would have better released he made the cut. 399 00:21:41,800 --> 00:21:45,000 Speaker 1: He did make the cut, unlike ben On for me 400 00:21:45,119 --> 00:21:48,480 Speaker 1: the previous week, you had a better week this past week, 401 00:21:48,520 --> 00:21:52,399 Speaker 1: Bo you took Max Grazerman. He tied for seventh. I 402 00:21:52,440 --> 00:21:55,720 Speaker 1: know you were messaging me on Sunday hoping he could 403 00:21:55,760 --> 00:21:58,119 Speaker 1: sneak into the top five. Not to be, but still 404 00:21:58,440 --> 00:22:01,200 Speaker 1: his top or his tie for seventh was good for 405 00:22:01,480 --> 00:22:04,919 Speaker 1: two hundred and sixty seven three hundred dollars. You're up 406 00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:08,119 Speaker 1: about four hundred thousand dollars on me already, bowl, But 407 00:22:08,200 --> 00:22:10,879 Speaker 1: I do pick first this week, give me the horse 408 00:22:10,880 --> 00:22:15,120 Speaker 1: for the course. I will take Tory Pine specialist Tony Fenow. 409 00:22:15,600 --> 00:22:16,359 Speaker 3: Who are you taking? 410 00:22:16,440 --> 00:22:21,040 Speaker 2: That's funny you should say that. But Grazerman was solo 411 00:22:21,160 --> 00:22:23,960 Speaker 2: fifth until he got to the seventy second hole and 412 00:22:24,160 --> 00:22:27,120 Speaker 2: do you know what he did? Pat He double bogie 413 00:22:27,160 --> 00:22:30,280 Speaker 2: the seventy second hole to drop to seventh. So that 414 00:22:30,440 --> 00:22:33,399 Speaker 2: cost me a quarter mill right there. And so you 415 00:22:33,480 --> 00:22:38,040 Speaker 2: should be down like six hundred thousand instead of four 416 00:22:38,119 --> 00:22:40,120 Speaker 2: hundred thousand. I'm still a little bit bitter, but yeah, 417 00:22:40,160 --> 00:22:43,280 Speaker 2: Grazerman double bogie the very last told the tournament to 418 00:22:43,400 --> 00:22:48,080 Speaker 2: drop from fifth to seventh. Heartbreaking. And I'm going for 419 00:22:48,720 --> 00:22:50,960 Speaker 2: a horse for the course with this week as well. 420 00:22:51,200 --> 00:22:55,280 Speaker 2: I'm going with will Zlaturus, the ultimate horse for the course, 421 00:22:55,320 --> 00:22:58,640 Speaker 2: and I think is playing better golf than Tony Fenow 422 00:22:58,920 --> 00:22:59,920 Speaker 2: so far this year. 423 00:23:01,280 --> 00:23:03,480 Speaker 1: It's a good call, and maybe I'll have to take 424 00:23:03,800 --> 00:23:06,640 Speaker 1: Willie Z when we come back here for the Genesis 425 00:23:06,680 --> 00:23:09,480 Speaker 1: for sure in a few weeks. That's all for this 426 00:23:09,520 --> 00:23:13,240 Speaker 1: week's Betting Pros PGA podcast. We will be back next 427 00:23:13,280 --> 00:23:15,959 Speaker 1: week with a preview of the AT and T Pebble 428 00:23:16,040 --> 00:23:19,480 Speaker 1: Beach Pro Am. Until then, so long everyone. 429 00:23:19,760 --> 00:23:22,359 Speaker 3: Thanks for listening to the Betting Pros Podcast. If you 430 00:23:22,440 --> 00:23:24,800 Speaker 3: love the show, the best freeway to support us is 431 00:23:24,800 --> 00:23:28,200 Speaker 3: by leaving a positive review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. 432 00:23:28,520 --> 00:23:31,119 Speaker 3: Follow us on x and TikTok at Betting Pros and 433 00:23:31,240 --> 00:23:34,879 Speaker 3: Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. Also subscribe to our YouTube 434 00:23:34,960 --> 00:23:48,840 Speaker 3: channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros