WEBVTT - Broadcasting from The Bloomberg Year Ahead

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<v Speaker 1>This is Bloomberg Business Week. I'm Carol Masser and I'm

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<v Speaker 1>Jason Kelly. We're here every day bringing you the latest

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<v Speaker 1>news from the world of business and finance, plus technology, politics, economics,

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<v Speaker 1>all harnessing the power of Bloomberg Business Week reporters and editors,

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<v Speaker 1>not to mention our journalists and analysts more than a

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<v Speaker 1>hundred and twenty countries. You can download Bloomberg Business Week

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<v Speaker 1>on iTunes, SoundCloud, or Bloomberg dot com. You can also

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<v Speaker 1>listen to our radio show weekdays at two pm Eastern

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<v Speaker 1>only on Bloomberg Radio. Here at the Year Ahead Summit

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<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg WW, the company probably known as Weight Watchers

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<v Speaker 1>continuing to undergo a transformation. Really thanks to the company's

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<v Speaker 1>president CEO, Mindy Grossman and her team, they're getting a

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<v Speaker 1>big brand relaunch in twenty nine, a marketing campaign featuring

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<v Speaker 1>its third largest shareholder and board member Oprah Winfrey. I

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<v Speaker 1>caught up with Mindy at the summit to talk about

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<v Speaker 1>brands with purpose and how this brand transformation differs from

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<v Speaker 1>the brand she am impacted before. We're talking about brands

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<v Speaker 1>like HS and Nike, Raff Lauren and more. Listen up,

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<v Speaker 1>you know on one hand, there are a lot of

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<v Speaker 1>similarities to transformation, and particularly of a legacy brand that

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<v Speaker 1>has had such meaning to people for so many years

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<v Speaker 1>um and this idea of moving forward but retaining the

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<v Speaker 1>beauty of that legacy and what the brand stands for.

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<v Speaker 1>So there's similarities. The difference is that this is not

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<v Speaker 1>an exercise in only a financial return on the impact,

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<v Speaker 1>although that is critical. The reality is if we accomplish

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<v Speaker 1>what we believe we want to accomplish and what has

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<v Speaker 1>to be accomplished, the return on human equity will be

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<v Speaker 1>so powerful that it becomes not just the fact that

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<v Speaker 1>we've got permission to be more in people's lives. We

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<v Speaker 1>feel we have a responsibility to do what it is

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<v Speaker 1>we're trying to do. And it goes back to the

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<v Speaker 1>comment you made about solving the paradox um and it

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<v Speaker 1>really heightened to me. I was in Italy at the

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<v Speaker 1>Global Wellness Summit and they presented the white paper on

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<v Speaker 1>how the global wellness economy has gone from three point

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<v Speaker 1>seven trillion to four point two trillion, and everybody was clapping.

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<v Speaker 1>But the reality is there's not a single marker anywhere

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<v Speaker 1>in the world that shows we're getting healthier and if

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<v Speaker 1>we do not do something. For example, today's millennial will

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<v Speaker 1>be the most obest generation in history. In today's two

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<v Speaker 1>year old has a better chance of not being healthy

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<v Speaker 1>than being healthy. And then if you look at the

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<v Speaker 1>gap in underserved communities, it's that much more dramatic. So

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<v Speaker 1>as a culture and as an organization, you know, this

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<v Speaker 1>evolution for us of not abdicating our position is the

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<v Speaker 1>best healthy eating and weight loss program on the planet,

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<v Speaker 1>because that's really important, but really giving people much more

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<v Speaker 1>of an ecosystem to help them sustainably lead better lives

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<v Speaker 1>and change that trajectory. The word purpose comes up a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of mindy that every corporate decision is put through

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<v Speaker 1>a purpose filter, and that people crave purpose. So this

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<v Speaker 1>underlines everything that you do. So I not only does

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<v Speaker 1>it underline everything we do. I think any brand today

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<v Speaker 1>that does not truly believe that there has to be

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<v Speaker 1>a purpose at their core and it has to be

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<v Speaker 1>relevant for your brand, I think is going to have

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<v Speaker 1>a challenge having long term sustainable success because you want

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<v Speaker 1>to attract talent, uh, you want to retain talent, You

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<v Speaker 1>want to create meaning with consumers. And you know, I've

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<v Speaker 1>spoken a lot how the brands of the future are

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<v Speaker 1>going to have to marry technology plus meaning to help

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<v Speaker 1>people lead more connected, fulfilled lives UM and I started

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<v Speaker 1>writing on building a culture of purpose UM, and you

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<v Speaker 1>have to define what that is for your brand, you know.

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<v Speaker 1>For for our company, it's very obvious UM. And so

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<v Speaker 1>everyone that works there not only feels they have a job,

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<v Speaker 1>but they really are having an impact on people's lives

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<v Speaker 1>and it really makes a very big difference, especially at

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<v Speaker 1>our underlying you know base where technology platform company, and

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<v Speaker 1>we are in the same fight for talent that everybody

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<v Speaker 1>else is, and that factor and that purpose factor, and

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<v Speaker 1>even especially moving forward is going to be very important.

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<v Speaker 1>Last year we talked I think at the end, I

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<v Speaker 1>was like, what are the things that are on your mind?

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<v Speaker 1>You talked about talent acquisition, and I know you are

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<v Speaker 1>increasingly becoming a technology company and competing for those software

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<v Speaker 1>engineers that everybody else wants, So tell me a little

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<v Speaker 1>bit about that. That's still number one on your mind. Absolutely, yea.

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<v Speaker 1>So what we've done over the course of the last year,

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<v Speaker 1>first of all, table Stakes is that there has to

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<v Speaker 1>be exciting, interesting technology that people are working on right UM,

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<v Speaker 1>and we're doing so many new things, and our brand

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<v Speaker 1>has a different element of relevancy today. But we're really

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<v Speaker 1>getting out there and we are a technology, technology, platform,

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<v Speaker 1>experience company with this human centric overlay. UM. Last week

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<v Speaker 1>we just opened new offices in San Francisco and we're

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<v Speaker 1>making sure our environment and you know, we're attracting talent

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<v Speaker 1>and we have room to double our staff out there. UM.

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<v Speaker 1>And so we did a big event out there and

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<v Speaker 1>we'll continue to do that. UM. We've done a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of work around us as an employer brand to get

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<v Speaker 1>people to understand who we are today and recruiting on

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<v Speaker 1>college campuses. But I would say the real important thing

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<v Speaker 1>is culture and purpose married to exciting technology, because it's

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<v Speaker 1>a war for talent in these areas. UM. But we're

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<v Speaker 1>doing exciting things around everything from data to AI to

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<v Speaker 1>the utilization of technology, and that's how the word of

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<v Speaker 1>mouth is attracting. And then I'd say, lastly, diversity. We

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<v Speaker 1>have an unusually diverse technology and product team and that

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<v Speaker 1>attracts talent. All right. Of course that was president CEO

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<v Speaker 1>of w W Mindy Grossman. I want to point out,

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<v Speaker 1>Jason I was reading in last night this morning, JP Morgan,

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<v Speaker 1>there Alice came out this week said the company's valuation

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<v Speaker 1>is significantly decoupled from its earnings growth reality, pointing out

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<v Speaker 1>the company's earnings growth opportunity in because the stock rallied

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<v Speaker 1>when Oprah got involved, rallied when Mindy got involved. Has

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<v Speaker 1>had quite a run, but it has pulled back significantly

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<v Speaker 1>from its highs. And this Alice saying it's undervalued. But

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<v Speaker 1>it was fun to talk to people after we had

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<v Speaker 1>our conversation. I'm sure you're experiencing this where people are saying,

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<v Speaker 1>she's onto something, building these platforms that are hopefully sticky

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<v Speaker 1>and that become a part of a person's life, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>where they check it constantly, just like we all check

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<v Speaker 1>whether it's social media, whether it's you know what have you? Well, listen,

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<v Speaker 1>it's a lifestyle brand for sure. If I should say,

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<v Speaker 1>if they can make it a lifestyle brand, yes, it's

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<v Speaker 1>a whole new world. It's an entirely new world. But

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<v Speaker 1>it's not something you do. It's who you are. And

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<v Speaker 1>we talked a lot about that when it comes to

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<v Speaker 1>fitness and wellness, and and that does seem to be

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<v Speaker 1>uh the holy grail. All right, Well, anyone who listens

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<v Speaker 1>to this program on any sort of regular basis. Knows

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<v Speaker 1>I love talking about private equity. I've been looking at

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<v Speaker 1>it for a long time. Antoindrian, he is an old friend,

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<v Speaker 1>Chairman of Triago, founder of Palico, really at the heart

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<v Speaker 1>of private equity fundraising especially. We've talked a lot over

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<v Speaker 1>the years. Antoine. It's great to see you here in

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<v Speaker 1>New York. You're all over the world. We're really glad

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<v Speaker 1>you stopped by to see us here on Bluemberg Business Week.

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<v Speaker 1>So what is the state of private equity right now?

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<v Speaker 1>Money seems to still be pouring in to this asset class.

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<v Speaker 1>Is that going to go on for a while? I

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<v Speaker 1>think it will go on for a while. I guess

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<v Speaker 1>the major reason is that most of the investors out

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<v Speaker 1>there are now understanding that private equity delivers great returns

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<v Speaker 1>and these actually not that risky at least as long

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<v Speaker 1>as you make the right choices when it comes to

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<v Speaker 1>general partners. They also understand that liquidity is not that bad.

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<v Speaker 1>You know that there is a pretty active secondary market now,

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<v Speaker 1>and all of this means that there is more There

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<v Speaker 1>are more people looking at this asset class and investing

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<v Speaker 1>in it. And so how much do you worry about

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<v Speaker 1>that sort of wall of that that wall of capital,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, the dry powder. It's measured in trillions of

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<v Speaker 1>dollars at this point. How much pressure does that put

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<v Speaker 1>on these managers to put money to work. Well, depending

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<v Speaker 1>on who you're talking about, obviously, private equity is just

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<v Speaker 1>it is not just one uh, you know, strategy, and

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<v Speaker 1>you have many strategies in the asset class. Some people

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<v Speaker 1>do feel pressure in some areas you have like a

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<v Speaker 1>hundred groups for one asset. I mean, obviously these people

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<v Speaker 1>may lose some discipline when it comes to buying, but

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<v Speaker 1>I think that overall, people in this asset class know

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<v Speaker 1>what they're doing. And if you look at many casualties

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<v Speaker 1>there has been after Lehman, actually it's not that bad.

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<v Speaker 1>Probably que saved a lot of you know, a lot

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<v Speaker 1>of money to everyone, But at the end of the day,

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<v Speaker 1>it's it's actually it wasn't a blood bath. And so

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<v Speaker 1>as you talk to these managers, you know, I've just

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<v Speaker 1>spent some time with John Gray. We're gonna hear more

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<v Speaker 1>from him later in the show. President of Blackstone, you know,

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<v Speaker 1>talking about valuations at least on the public side, starting

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<v Speaker 1>to come off a little excuse me a little bit.

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<v Speaker 1>What do you see, uh, in terms of valuations and

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<v Speaker 1>dealmaking as we head into twenty nineteen. Uh, it looks

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<v Speaker 1>like they're they're pretty stable right now, at least here

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<v Speaker 1>in the US and in Europe. Uh. They may actually

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<v Speaker 1>go down a little bit if if markets are are

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<v Speaker 1>going down. There is some sort of correlation. Obviously not

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<v Speaker 1>a high one, but there is one. So so we'll see.

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<v Speaker 1>But I think it's still, you know, fairly valued at

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<v Speaker 1>this point. And in terms of where the money is

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<v Speaker 1>coming from and going into these private equity funds. How

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<v Speaker 1>has the mixed change over the years? You know, public

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<v Speaker 1>pensions for were for a long time, US public pensions

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<v Speaker 1>were the biggest contributor, are the biggest investor um. Sovereign

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<v Speaker 1>wealth has come on pretty strong. Family offices have come

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<v Speaker 1>on strong. How is that mix changing? It's now a

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<v Speaker 1>lot of very different investors. When I started twenty six

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<v Speaker 1>years ago in this business, most of the people were

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<v Speaker 1>in this country, and you were right. I mean, you're right,

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<v Speaker 1>most of them were pension funds. Today you have investors

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<v Speaker 1>pretty much all over the world. There are fifteen thousand

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<v Speaker 1>of them now. Uh. And of course the family piece

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<v Speaker 1>is now a big one, and it will it will

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<v Speaker 1>most probably grow. And the third third big space that

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<v Speaker 1>could grow is actually the retail investors. I mean there

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<v Speaker 1>are there will be more retail investors in the Sunset class.

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<v Speaker 1>I'm so glad you brought that up, because that seems

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<v Speaker 1>to be the holy grail for especially some of these

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<v Speaker 1>bigger managers, the big publicly traded guys like a black Stone,

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<v Speaker 1>a KKR, a Carlisle. How realistic is that that we

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<v Speaker 1>really wealth see a robust retail effort in private equity.

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<v Speaker 1>I think it is very realistic. The question is is when?

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<v Speaker 1>But it is p a great asset class. Yes, if

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<v Speaker 1>it works for institutions, why shouldn't it work for uh,

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<v Speaker 1>you know, everyone on the street. I think that everyone

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<v Speaker 1>is a candidate for eight ten percent a year returned, right,

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<v Speaker 1>whether you're a huge pension fund or or Joshmo on

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<v Speaker 1>the street, I mean you don't, you don't, doesn't really matter. Uh,

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<v Speaker 1>So there is there will be demand. Now, the question

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<v Speaker 1>is more liquidity, right, I think that's that's the big,

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<v Speaker 1>big question. When you're a pension fund and you have

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<v Speaker 1>money for ever almost you can take the risk of

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<v Speaker 1>being you know, locked for ten years Uh, if you're

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<v Speaker 1>a person and you could need the money in a

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<v Speaker 1>few weeks, then there's an issue. So I mean, obviously

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<v Speaker 1>I think that retail investors won't put you know, everything

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<v Speaker 1>in this asset class. But at least there should be

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<v Speaker 1>a better liquidity team mechanism, even better than today. It's

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<v Speaker 1>not bad, but then than today, to make sure that

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<v Speaker 1>these people can actually used private equity for their own accounts.

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<v Speaker 1>So thirty seconds left and maybe a little bit less.

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<v Speaker 1>Are we gonna see a big retail push in nineteen

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<v Speaker 1>or is it further out than that? I think it's

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<v Speaker 1>not nineteen. I mean some people thought it would be

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<v Speaker 1>seventeen eighteen. I'm not sure it's going to be nineteen,

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<v Speaker 1>but it's growing and it should be, you know, maybe

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<v Speaker 1>twenty or twenty one. I'm talking about the big wave,

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<v Speaker 1>but not not this thing, not the trickle, the big wave.

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<v Speaker 1>Antoine Dron chairman of Triago, founder of Palico. Based in Paris,

0:12:32.640 --> 0:12:36.959
<v Speaker 1>but here with me in our Bloomberg headquarters in New York.

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<v Speaker 1>Always great to catch up with you. You don't get

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<v Speaker 1>a lot of chances to listen to that song, uh

0:12:49.440 --> 0:12:54.160
<v Speaker 1>these days, But snacks they're a big business model a

0:12:54.320 --> 0:12:57.319
<v Speaker 1>CEO Dirt Vanderputt is joining me here at the Year

0:12:57.320 --> 0:12:59.840
<v Speaker 1>Ahead summit. Dirt, great to be with you. You were

0:12:59.880 --> 0:13:03.800
<v Speaker 1>up stairs participating in a panel uh part of the

0:13:03.880 --> 0:13:07.720
<v Speaker 1>Year Ahead summing. Let's talk about snacks a little bit.

0:13:07.960 --> 0:13:12.080
<v Speaker 1>We're sitting here in the Bloomberg pantry, snacks all around us.

0:13:13.480 --> 0:13:16.600
<v Speaker 1>But it feels like we're more conscious these days about

0:13:16.640 --> 0:13:19.960
<v Speaker 1>what we're putting into our bodies, even when it comes

0:13:19.960 --> 0:13:22.000
<v Speaker 1>to snacks. So how do you deal with that as

0:13:22.000 --> 0:13:26.120
<v Speaker 1>a snack maker? Well, um, you need to offer the

0:13:26.400 --> 0:13:30.160
<v Speaker 1>variation that the consumer wants. Um, it is clear that

0:13:30.200 --> 0:13:33.640
<v Speaker 1>the consumer is much more conscious about what they eat.

0:13:33.840 --> 0:13:38.160
<v Speaker 1>And in fact it is is not so that the

0:13:38.200 --> 0:13:41.559
<v Speaker 1>same consumer there's always the same thing. They do different things.

0:13:41.600 --> 0:13:44.320
<v Speaker 1>It depends of the moment and how they feel and

0:13:44.360 --> 0:13:48.560
<v Speaker 1>so on. And as a company that obliges us to

0:13:48.559 --> 0:13:54.319
<v Speaker 1>go from very healthy snacks to more indulgent oriented snacks.

0:13:54.360 --> 0:13:57.600
<v Speaker 1>And and how's business right now globally? Where do you

0:13:57.679 --> 0:14:01.360
<v Speaker 1>see kind of the pockets of opportunity? You know, that's

0:14:01.400 --> 0:14:03.720
<v Speaker 1>been sort of a big question at the Year Ahead

0:14:03.720 --> 0:14:07.680
<v Speaker 1>writ large. Is you know, as the as we get

0:14:07.880 --> 0:14:10.800
<v Speaker 1>longer and longer into this bowl market as we've had

0:14:10.800 --> 0:14:15.160
<v Speaker 1>a very healthy global economy and certainly here in the US. UH,

0:14:15.440 --> 0:14:18.520
<v Speaker 1>where do you see the biggest opportunities around the world.

0:14:19.720 --> 0:14:23.160
<v Speaker 1>I would say the longer term, um, the emerging markets

0:14:23.160 --> 0:14:26.000
<v Speaker 1>are clearly where where most of the opportunity lies in

0:14:26.280 --> 0:14:29.720
<v Speaker 1>the snacking business. Short term that's still the case, but

0:14:29.960 --> 0:14:32.640
<v Speaker 1>I would say for it's just North America, the markets

0:14:32.640 --> 0:14:35.160
<v Speaker 1>that we are in biscuits, chocolate, candy, and so on

0:14:35.520 --> 0:14:37.720
<v Speaker 1>are showing some some pretty good growth, much better than

0:14:37.800 --> 0:14:40.400
<v Speaker 1>the previous years. So you can feel the confidence from

0:14:40.440 --> 0:14:42.760
<v Speaker 1>the consumer and and and the fact that there is

0:14:42.800 --> 0:14:45.760
<v Speaker 1>a little bit of momentum. So at this stage it's

0:14:45.880 --> 0:14:49.960
<v Speaker 1>it's developed being and developed markets both are doing quite well.

0:14:50.400 --> 0:14:53.080
<v Speaker 1>And how do you see that plane going into nineteen?

0:14:53.240 --> 0:14:55.760
<v Speaker 1>It feels like That's the other big existential question is

0:14:55.800 --> 0:14:59.960
<v Speaker 1>does that consumer confidence play through nineteen or we started

0:15:00.120 --> 0:15:03.400
<v Speaker 1>to see signs and maybe some caution. At this moment,

0:15:03.440 --> 0:15:05.760
<v Speaker 1>we don't see those signs. I feel a bit more

0:15:05.800 --> 0:15:08.120
<v Speaker 1>caution on the business side. Those business people are a

0:15:08.120 --> 0:15:10.960
<v Speaker 1>bit more worried about what could come. But from a

0:15:11.040 --> 0:15:16.880
<v Speaker 1>consumer's perspective, we see the momentum continue. Um, there's there's

0:15:16.920 --> 0:15:20.120
<v Speaker 1>signs around the world that that the momentum in other

0:15:20.160 --> 0:15:23.720
<v Speaker 1>countries also is continued. So I don't expect from a

0:15:23.760 --> 0:15:27.600
<v Speaker 1>consumer's perspective that nineteen will be a year where there's

0:15:27.640 --> 0:15:30.320
<v Speaker 1>a big change in their attitude. I don't see it

0:15:30.280 --> 0:15:33.520
<v Speaker 1>at the moment. So speaking globally, you obviously see opportunities

0:15:33.520 --> 0:15:35.920
<v Speaker 1>both for consumers but also to build your business, maybe

0:15:36.120 --> 0:15:39.280
<v Speaker 1>expand your business. We've talked a lot today about maybe

0:15:39.280 --> 0:15:43.040
<v Speaker 1>some valuations coming down. Is that present a buying opportunity

0:15:43.120 --> 0:15:45.560
<v Speaker 1>for you, maybe pick up some assets here and there.

0:15:46.280 --> 0:15:50.880
<v Speaker 1>Um yeah, yes, of course. Um our strategy is to

0:15:51.040 --> 0:15:53.640
<v Speaker 1>be the biggest snacking player around the world, and as

0:15:53.640 --> 0:15:55.680
<v Speaker 1>you can imagine, we still have a lot of white

0:15:55.680 --> 0:15:57.880
<v Speaker 1>spaces where we can do that. We do that through

0:15:57.880 --> 0:16:00.080
<v Speaker 1>a combination of launching our own products and try to

0:16:00.120 --> 0:16:03.160
<v Speaker 1>grow like that. But if the right opportunity presents itself

0:16:03.320 --> 0:16:06.320
<v Speaker 1>at the right financial conditions, and we always try to

0:16:06.320 --> 0:16:08.960
<v Speaker 1>take a discipline approach, of course, then we will certainly

0:16:09.040 --> 0:16:13.440
<v Speaker 1>do that. Are there specific areas that make more sense

0:16:14.080 --> 0:16:19.600
<v Speaker 1>to buy rather than launch, Um, yes, if you are

0:16:19.760 --> 0:16:23.680
<v Speaker 1>seeing something that is a strong position, if there's a

0:16:23.720 --> 0:16:26.760
<v Speaker 1>company that's a strong position in the market, a strong brand,

0:16:27.240 --> 0:16:31.080
<v Speaker 1>growing nicely. It would be probably very expensive to go

0:16:31.160 --> 0:16:32.960
<v Speaker 1>against that brand, and if you would be able to

0:16:33.160 --> 0:16:36.320
<v Speaker 1>partner or buy, that would be the best solution to

0:16:36.360 --> 0:16:39.040
<v Speaker 1>my opinion. Kellogg, for instance, is getting out of some

0:16:39.120 --> 0:16:42.520
<v Speaker 1>of its businesses. Is that somewhere you you might shop. Um,

0:16:42.760 --> 0:16:46.040
<v Speaker 1>we look at any opportunity. I don't particularly think that

0:16:46.160 --> 0:16:49.160
<v Speaker 1>this one's in our biscuit position already in North America,

0:16:49.200 --> 0:16:51.520
<v Speaker 1>that that's immediately going to be something for us, But

0:16:52.240 --> 0:16:55.840
<v Speaker 1>we will evaluate everything that that that goes on for sure.

0:16:55.960 --> 0:16:58.600
<v Speaker 1>And as you think about your business, obviously a question

0:16:58.640 --> 0:17:02.640
<v Speaker 1>that comes to every CEO's to global ceo is cost shipping,

0:17:02.760 --> 0:17:05.600
<v Speaker 1>especially given the trade world, the new trade world. Shall

0:17:05.640 --> 0:17:08.320
<v Speaker 1>we say that we are living in of late How

0:17:08.440 --> 0:17:12.200
<v Speaker 1>is that affecting your cost in and ultimately your bottom line? Um?

0:17:12.200 --> 0:17:15.480
<v Speaker 1>It is, Uh, it is affecting our costs and the

0:17:15.480 --> 0:17:17.720
<v Speaker 1>consequence of that is that we will have to price

0:17:18.000 --> 0:17:20.840
<v Speaker 1>a little bit more than normal. The effect we see

0:17:20.840 --> 0:17:23.479
<v Speaker 1>going into nineteen as it relates to inflation on our

0:17:23.520 --> 0:17:26.119
<v Speaker 1>input cost is a bit higher than it was in

0:17:26.160 --> 0:17:29.560
<v Speaker 1>the previous years. And but at the same time the

0:17:29.560 --> 0:17:33.080
<v Speaker 1>consumer confidence is there, so increasing prices a little bit.

0:17:33.119 --> 0:17:37.520
<v Speaker 1>I think is doable at this stage um UM. We

0:17:37.600 --> 0:17:41.040
<v Speaker 1>will not be affected in our bottom line. Um Our

0:17:41.040 --> 0:17:44.159
<v Speaker 1>bottom line next year will be not that aggressive because

0:17:44.200 --> 0:17:46.280
<v Speaker 1>we have decided that we will do more investment in

0:17:46.280 --> 0:17:49.600
<v Speaker 1>our brands and innovation and our route the market. So

0:17:49.600 --> 0:17:51.920
<v Speaker 1>so we're a little bit in an investment next year,

0:17:52.240 --> 0:17:54.000
<v Speaker 1>but that's not because of our cost that's because of

0:17:54.040 --> 0:17:57.600
<v Speaker 1>the investments that we're making. So you have you've had

0:17:57.640 --> 0:18:00.720
<v Speaker 1>a fascinating career. You worked at Group don Own, you

0:18:00.760 --> 0:18:03.359
<v Speaker 1>worked at Coca Cola, you worked at McCain Foods up

0:18:03.359 --> 0:18:06.680
<v Speaker 1>in uh Canada. As you look as you think about

0:18:06.680 --> 0:18:08.760
<v Speaker 1>that experience, you look at where we are, you know,

0:18:08.880 --> 0:18:11.400
<v Speaker 1>in the in the world right now, what's the biggest

0:18:11.440 --> 0:18:16.919
<v Speaker 1>opportunity kind of across the world of food, the biggest

0:18:16.960 --> 0:18:20.600
<v Speaker 1>opportunity or the winner will be the company that can

0:18:20.760 --> 0:18:24.399
<v Speaker 1>understand and a company the consumer where she or he

0:18:24.600 --> 0:18:27.399
<v Speaker 1>is going. There's so much change taking place and you

0:18:27.520 --> 0:18:31.480
<v Speaker 1>refer to it that it's become the old recipe doesn't

0:18:31.480 --> 0:18:36.080
<v Speaker 1>work anymore. One big global brand that is so all

0:18:36.119 --> 0:18:37.920
<v Speaker 1>over the world that I don't I don't believe in

0:18:37.960 --> 0:18:40.000
<v Speaker 1>the restuming animal. So you need to adapt, you need

0:18:40.040 --> 0:18:42.399
<v Speaker 1>to be on top of the consumer and quickly changed

0:18:42.440 --> 0:18:44.960
<v Speaker 1>with the consumer needs the company that can do that,

0:18:45.040 --> 0:18:47.480
<v Speaker 1>I think we'll win. And do you see like a

0:18:47.600 --> 0:18:51.119
<v Speaker 1>cannabis or something like that, you know, being something that

0:18:51.280 --> 0:18:53.480
<v Speaker 1>you might be interested in, certainly seems to be getting

0:18:53.480 --> 0:18:56.679
<v Speaker 1>a lot of attention. Well, we certainly will look at it.

0:18:56.720 --> 0:18:59.920
<v Speaker 1>We're not not gonna say no. But at the same time,

0:19:00.520 --> 0:19:03.280
<v Speaker 1>we make orioles, we make chips. You will not see

0:19:03.320 --> 0:19:06.600
<v Speaker 1>a canna misinfused oreo with coming through the market. Well,

0:19:06.680 --> 0:19:09.520
<v Speaker 1>I'm sure there we have some disappointed listeners out there

0:19:09.560 --> 0:19:13.040
<v Speaker 1>hearing that news. All right, Dirk vanderbut thank you so much,

0:19:13.080 --> 0:19:16.160
<v Speaker 1>Chief executive officer of Mondel. He's based in Deerfield, Illinois,

0:19:16.240 --> 0:19:18.639
<v Speaker 1>but here with us at Bloomberg Headquarters as part of

0:19:18.680 --> 0:19:20.439
<v Speaker 1>the Year Ahead Somewhe great to spend some time. We

0:19:20.440 --> 0:19:35.800
<v Speaker 1>can usually appreciate it. Yeah, we're talking sploring. Go figure

0:19:35.880 --> 0:19:39.080
<v Speaker 1>right wait what wait? What perfect guest to do that with.

0:19:39.200 --> 0:19:41.359
<v Speaker 1>Don Cornwell is with us. He's partner at p j

0:19:41.560 --> 0:19:45.080
<v Speaker 1>T Partners, participating in our Bloomberg Your HEEAD summit here

0:19:45.080 --> 0:19:46.919
<v Speaker 1>at Bloomberg Headquarters. In fact, he's gonna be part of

0:19:46.920 --> 0:19:49.240
<v Speaker 1>a panel later today on the high stakes of sports betting.

0:19:49.520 --> 0:19:51.040
<v Speaker 1>Nice to have you here with us, Good to be here.

0:19:51.160 --> 0:19:53.119
<v Speaker 1>There is so much going on. Where do you want

0:19:53.160 --> 0:19:55.000
<v Speaker 1>to start? What do you find most interesting when you

0:19:55.040 --> 0:19:57.440
<v Speaker 1>look at the sports world? Is it sports? Media? Is

0:19:57.440 --> 0:20:01.240
<v Speaker 1>it E sports? Is it so different things? What it was?

0:20:01.280 --> 0:20:03.840
<v Speaker 1>I mean right now E sports and gaming are the

0:20:03.840 --> 0:20:06.760
<v Speaker 1>two areas I'm spending the most time in. But the

0:20:06.800 --> 0:20:10.560
<v Speaker 1>convergence of all these things, the media companies, the gaming companies,

0:20:10.600 --> 0:20:13.240
<v Speaker 1>the league's you're seeing just so much activities. So let's

0:20:13.240 --> 0:20:15.520
<v Speaker 1>talk about the sports for a second. Because Jim Coulter,

0:20:15.760 --> 0:20:17.119
<v Speaker 1>you know, gave a sort of his view of the

0:20:17.119 --> 0:20:19.359
<v Speaker 1>world for twenty nineteen earlier this morning. One thing he

0:20:19.400 --> 0:20:22.000
<v Speaker 1>didn't actually get to talk to the audience about, but

0:20:22.080 --> 0:20:24.520
<v Speaker 1>I talked to him about on the sidelines was E

0:20:24.680 --> 0:20:29.440
<v Speaker 1>sports is a highly investable area. Where is the money

0:20:29.480 --> 0:20:31.520
<v Speaker 1>to be made there at this moment A lot of

0:20:31.520 --> 0:20:34.640
<v Speaker 1>different places. So you're seeing lots of capital come into

0:20:34.760 --> 0:20:37.240
<v Speaker 1>the teams themselves, the franchises, right, And I didn't what

0:20:37.359 --> 0:20:39.480
<v Speaker 1>Activision Blue first of all, the idea of like an

0:20:39.480 --> 0:20:42.200
<v Speaker 1>E sports team, like these are teams that people playing

0:20:42.240 --> 0:20:44.639
<v Speaker 1>video games teams. These are just like the New York

0:20:44.720 --> 0:20:46.639
<v Speaker 1>Jets and the Giants and the Knicks. These are teams

0:20:46.680 --> 0:20:50.160
<v Speaker 1>with professional athletes who have contracts, and they have schedules,

0:20:50.160 --> 0:20:53.040
<v Speaker 1>and they have matches that are televised, and then people

0:20:53.080 --> 0:20:56.320
<v Speaker 1>watch them playing, people watch them live, uh, and people

0:20:56.359 --> 0:20:58.840
<v Speaker 1>watch them streaming and on TV. Uh. You know. This

0:20:58.840 --> 0:21:00.560
<v Speaker 1>past summer, I went to the Active as a Blizzard

0:21:01.000 --> 0:21:04.040
<v Speaker 1>over Watch finals out. Barkley's sold out. I was talk

0:21:04.040 --> 0:21:05.960
<v Speaker 1>into a buddy mine who works with the Nets. He's

0:21:05.960 --> 0:21:07.720
<v Speaker 1>telling me as the loudest he's ever seen the building,

0:21:07.880 --> 0:21:09.919
<v Speaker 1>louder than the jay Z concert, louder than when the

0:21:09.920 --> 0:21:11.960
<v Speaker 1>Nets win the playoffs. It was the loudest he's ever seen.

0:21:12.160 --> 0:21:14.359
<v Speaker 1>So how big does this market get? What are we

0:21:14.400 --> 0:21:16.400
<v Speaker 1>talking and how quickly does it ramp up? I think

0:21:16.560 --> 0:21:20.320
<v Speaker 1>it is um It's global in nature, right, So just

0:21:20.359 --> 0:21:22.000
<v Speaker 1>to put it in perspective, I just saw a stat

0:21:22.040 --> 0:21:26.880
<v Speaker 1>this morning Fortnite has now two million users. Think about that.

0:21:26.880 --> 0:21:29.200
<v Speaker 1>That game is not that old, right, It is moving

0:21:29.240 --> 0:21:32.880
<v Speaker 1>at a pace where it is approaching with nothing else.

0:21:32.920 --> 0:21:35.000
<v Speaker 1>And when the world of entertainment there's no other thing

0:21:35.080 --> 0:21:37.240
<v Speaker 1>that looks like that, right, and you've got people of

0:21:37.280 --> 0:21:40.320
<v Speaker 1>all demographics. I think that's the big difference when you

0:21:40.400 --> 0:21:44.400
<v Speaker 1>think about video games, it's people who play sports who

0:21:44.440 --> 0:21:47.879
<v Speaker 1>like video games. It's professional athletes, it's musicians, it's the

0:21:47.920 --> 0:21:51.000
<v Speaker 1>guy who never leaves his basement. It's all right, it's

0:21:51.040 --> 0:21:54.479
<v Speaker 1>somebody in America, somebody in Asian women. Well, no, if

0:21:54.520 --> 0:21:56.920
<v Speaker 1>you look at the Fortnite numbers, there's a lot of

0:21:57.359 --> 0:22:00.320
<v Speaker 1>females who play. That's what's got people very excited about it.

0:22:00.320 --> 0:22:03.560
<v Speaker 1>So the numbers are huge, so it could get very large.

0:22:03.600 --> 0:22:05.320
<v Speaker 1>What what do you give me a number? Do you

0:22:05.320 --> 0:22:07.960
<v Speaker 1>have a number that So here's one way of thinking

0:22:07.960 --> 0:22:11.800
<v Speaker 1>about it. Um people are raising capital for these franchises

0:22:11.800 --> 0:22:17.320
<v Speaker 1>now at valuations hundred million, hundred million, These things are

0:22:17.880 --> 0:22:20.520
<v Speaker 1>one or two years old. These a brand new entity.

0:22:20.680 --> 0:22:24.199
<v Speaker 1>Put that in context with an NFL franchise that might

0:22:24.240 --> 0:22:27.119
<v Speaker 1>be worth two or three billion dollars. That's fifty or

0:22:27.119 --> 0:22:29.240
<v Speaker 1>sixty years old, right, It's taken him that long. So

0:22:29.280 --> 0:22:32.200
<v Speaker 1>the trajectory is just you know, at a different level.

0:22:32.240 --> 0:22:33.879
<v Speaker 1>All right, So you let us right there, let's talk

0:22:33.880 --> 0:22:37.800
<v Speaker 1>about valuations in in more traditional pro sports as it were.

0:22:38.200 --> 0:22:41.080
<v Speaker 1>As you look around right now, NFL ratings back up

0:22:41.119 --> 0:22:44.080
<v Speaker 1>again after a tough year last year amid a lot

0:22:44.119 --> 0:22:51.080
<v Speaker 1>of politics and various controversies. Valuations stabilized, growing in let's

0:22:51.119 --> 0:22:54.840
<v Speaker 1>just start with the NFL still growing, still growing. People

0:22:55.480 --> 0:22:59.840
<v Speaker 1>like to talk negatively about the Catalan Panthers. Valuation still

0:22:59.840 --> 0:23:02.879
<v Speaker 1>a record. I mean, you know, we solved it wasn't

0:23:02.960 --> 0:23:06.160
<v Speaker 1>as big as it's just as big as people reported,

0:23:06.200 --> 0:23:08.200
<v Speaker 1>but it's still a record. I mean, that's a lot

0:23:08.240 --> 0:23:11.040
<v Speaker 1>of money, right, David Tepper wrote a very very large

0:23:11.119 --> 0:23:13.760
<v Speaker 1>check to own an asset, uh, And so I think

0:23:13.800 --> 0:23:16.760
<v Speaker 1>there's still lots of upside both on the broadcast side.

0:23:17.280 --> 0:23:19.280
<v Speaker 1>What's happening is the NFL and other leagues would just

0:23:19.320 --> 0:23:21.840
<v Speaker 1>be more creative, right, So they're thinking about, Okay, how

0:23:21.840 --> 0:23:24.840
<v Speaker 1>do I chop up my packages to get streaming? How

0:23:24.880 --> 0:23:27.600
<v Speaker 1>do I think about leveraging an Amazon when I'm talking

0:23:27.640 --> 0:23:30.920
<v Speaker 1>to Fox? Right? So over time we'll see uh, lots

0:23:30.960 --> 0:23:33.960
<v Speaker 1>more improven there. But also there's the data element, and

0:23:34.000 --> 0:23:36.280
<v Speaker 1>I think that's where you're starting to see some some

0:23:36.280 --> 0:23:38.960
<v Speaker 1>some headlines around the value of that data. But with

0:23:39.040 --> 0:23:41.440
<v Speaker 1>things like football, I mean there's been so much controversy

0:23:41.480 --> 0:23:44.280
<v Speaker 1>about the injuries and you see younger, you're like set,

0:23:44.320 --> 0:23:45.840
<v Speaker 1>You're are you rolling your eyes there? I mean, is

0:23:45.840 --> 0:23:49.000
<v Speaker 1>it a case that e sports replaces like traditional football.

0:23:49.040 --> 0:23:51.400
<v Speaker 1>You don't see that how it's additive. It's additive. They're Look,

0:23:51.400 --> 0:23:54.080
<v Speaker 1>if you're a three hundred pound guy with really quick feet,

0:23:54.640 --> 0:23:56.879
<v Speaker 1>what else are you gonna do? Right? That's the sport

0:23:56.880 --> 0:23:58.520
<v Speaker 1>to play as football? All right, There's gonna be people

0:23:58.520 --> 0:24:00.359
<v Speaker 1>who want to play football because the money is there, right.

0:24:01.240 --> 0:24:04.320
<v Speaker 1>You know, will you see certain people not be allowed

0:24:04.320 --> 0:24:06.119
<v Speaker 1>to play as kids? Yeah? Sure, right, So there is

0:24:06.160 --> 0:24:08.199
<v Speaker 1>some fear around concussion around that front, but I think

0:24:08.200 --> 0:24:09.879
<v Speaker 1>there's still gonna be plenty of athletes who want to

0:24:09.880 --> 0:24:11.560
<v Speaker 1>play it, and we're still gonna watch it. I mean,

0:24:11.600 --> 0:24:15.240
<v Speaker 1>look at boxing, like boxing and UFC, that's as barbaric

0:24:15.320 --> 0:24:17.480
<v Speaker 1>as it gets, right, people fighting in a ring. Right,

0:24:17.720 --> 0:24:20.639
<v Speaker 1>you look at the numbers, it's huge, right, So I

0:24:20.880 --> 0:24:23.920
<v Speaker 1>still think football will be so. Jerry Jones says Dallas

0:24:23.960 --> 0:24:27.000
<v Speaker 1>Cowboys worth ten billion dollars. You buy it? I mean,

0:24:27.040 --> 0:24:28.560
<v Speaker 1>if he was trying to sell it, I'd like to

0:24:28.560 --> 0:24:32.480
<v Speaker 1>sell for ten. Do you think you think somebody would

0:24:32.480 --> 0:24:34.359
<v Speaker 1>pay ten or close to it? It looked that that

0:24:34.480 --> 0:24:37.359
<v Speaker 1>is a very unique brand, uh, And he's got a

0:24:37.359 --> 0:24:40.040
<v Speaker 1>business model that's very different than everybody else in the NFL.

0:24:40.359 --> 0:24:42.560
<v Speaker 1>Uh and he makes a lot of money. So who knows? Right?

0:24:42.800 --> 0:24:46.080
<v Speaker 1>So before we let you go, what what's the one

0:24:46.119 --> 0:24:49.080
<v Speaker 1>league where the valuations are growing the fastest from your estimation?

0:24:49.440 --> 0:24:54.160
<v Speaker 1>Outside of the sports, I am the NBA's still you're

0:24:54.200 --> 0:24:55.880
<v Speaker 1>looking at numbers and me if you think about what

0:24:56.200 --> 0:24:58.440
<v Speaker 1>you know, you got your Mark Lasser and West Indians

0:24:58.440 --> 0:25:01.480
<v Speaker 1>came in for and what they alluishers now Blitzer and

0:25:01.520 --> 0:25:04.360
<v Speaker 1>Hairs with the sixers. I mean the numbers are ten seconds.

0:25:04.440 --> 0:25:07.440
<v Speaker 1>Tiger Woods, he's back, that Discovery deal back, he's back.

0:25:07.480 --> 0:25:09.879
<v Speaker 1>That's pretty big, right yeah? Is that the best thing

0:25:09.960 --> 0:25:12.400
<v Speaker 1>that's happened to golf? Absolutely? Yeah, It's a game change.

0:25:12.440 --> 0:25:16.800
<v Speaker 1>Nobody like him, right, Don Cornwell Partner p J Partners.

0:25:16.880 --> 0:25:19.760
<v Speaker 1>Always good to see you. Thank you for participating in

0:25:19.800 --> 0:25:22.439
<v Speaker 1>the Yearhead Summit and thanks for stopping by to see us.

0:25:22.440 --> 0:25:24.879
<v Speaker 1>You are listening to Bloomberg Business Week here on a

0:25:24.920 --> 0:25:28.919
<v Speaker 1>busy Wednesday afternoon at bloom Bloomberg World Headquarters, Your Head Summit,

0:25:29.320 --> 0:25:32.520
<v Speaker 1>Jason Kelley and Carol Masser. You are listening to Bloomberg

0:25:32.720 --> 0:25:40.200
<v Speaker 1>Business Week on Bloomberg Radio Broom a journal. Yeah, but

0:25:40.320 --> 0:25:45.080
<v Speaker 1>you let me drive? Oh no, no, no no, no, please,

0:25:45.160 --> 0:25:48.680
<v Speaker 1>I'll do the right revel I want to drive ball,

0:25:51.080 --> 0:26:10.600
<v Speaker 1>just drive questions to the globe on Bloomberg Radio. So

0:26:10.680 --> 0:26:13.000
<v Speaker 1>it is time for the drive to the clothes. And

0:26:13.040 --> 0:26:14.840
<v Speaker 1>for that, we're gonna go back to a conversation I

0:26:14.880 --> 0:26:17.960
<v Speaker 1>had earlier today, Carol here at the Year Ahead Summit.

0:26:18.359 --> 0:26:22.120
<v Speaker 1>John Gray the president and chief operating officer of black

0:26:22.160 --> 0:26:24.920
<v Speaker 1>So newly minted. He took that job earlier this year.

0:26:24.920 --> 0:26:27.600
<v Speaker 1>He was a real estate phenomen of sorts. Really built

0:26:27.600 --> 0:26:30.720
<v Speaker 1>that business. It's the only place he's ever worked. Blackstone

0:26:30.720 --> 0:26:33.640
<v Speaker 1>started his career straight out of University of Pennsylvania, UH

0:26:33.680 --> 0:26:37.280
<v Speaker 1>and really worked his way up and has been quite successful.

0:26:37.359 --> 0:26:40.720
<v Speaker 1>And you know, we talked a lot about the investing environment,

0:26:41.280 --> 0:26:45.800
<v Speaker 1>and we started on the topic that is on everyone's mind,

0:26:46.160 --> 0:26:48.840
<v Speaker 1>of volatility. Here's what you have to say. We're certainly

0:26:48.840 --> 0:26:51.600
<v Speaker 1>in a world with more volatility. The data would say that,

0:26:51.680 --> 0:26:53.560
<v Speaker 1>and I don't think we should be shocked by that.

0:26:54.160 --> 0:26:56.520
<v Speaker 1>We've had a great run in asset prices for a

0:26:56.520 --> 0:27:00.720
<v Speaker 1>long period of time. Volatility had been fairly low. UH.

0:27:00.760 --> 0:27:03.439
<v Speaker 1>The ft has begun to raise rates. We've got some

0:27:03.520 --> 0:27:07.000
<v Speaker 1>trade tensions out there, we have some issues in emerging markets,

0:27:07.359 --> 0:27:10.399
<v Speaker 1>we have some issues in Europe as well. You know,

0:27:10.520 --> 0:27:14.160
<v Speaker 1>oil prices have come down sharply. I think it's natural

0:27:14.720 --> 0:27:16.920
<v Speaker 1>that you have this kind of volatility at some point

0:27:17.000 --> 0:27:20.320
<v Speaker 1>during a cycle. So I don't think that's necessarily bad

0:27:20.800 --> 0:27:24.840
<v Speaker 1>for our business. This is generally a good thing because

0:27:25.160 --> 0:27:29.760
<v Speaker 1>if asset prices keep grinding higher, that's hard to find opportunity.

0:27:30.359 --> 0:27:32.280
<v Speaker 1>And so if you have a business model like we do,

0:27:32.320 --> 0:27:34.880
<v Speaker 1>where you get capital tied up for long periods of time,

0:27:35.320 --> 0:27:37.880
<v Speaker 1>you have discretion. When things drop in price, you can

0:27:37.920 --> 0:27:42.280
<v Speaker 1>move quickly, and because you're not short term financed or

0:27:42.359 --> 0:27:45.119
<v Speaker 1>the capital can't be called away, you're not forced to sell.

0:27:45.640 --> 0:27:47.960
<v Speaker 1>So for us, we look at this and say, wow,

0:27:48.000 --> 0:27:49.720
<v Speaker 1>there are lots of assets around the world that have

0:27:49.800 --> 0:27:53.040
<v Speaker 1>been repriced. We've got close to a hundred billion dollars

0:27:53.040 --> 0:27:56.520
<v Speaker 1>of dry powder. This could be a more interesting investment

0:27:56.560 --> 0:28:01.840
<v Speaker 1>environment going forward. Help us understand the investing environment versus

0:28:01.880 --> 0:28:06.360
<v Speaker 1>the economic environment, because obviously they're in a related but

0:28:06.440 --> 0:28:10.680
<v Speaker 1>not necessarily super correlated. It feels like right now, yes,

0:28:11.200 --> 0:28:14.520
<v Speaker 1>So I'd say on the economic side, people are obviously

0:28:14.560 --> 0:28:18.120
<v Speaker 1>a little bit nervous given this volatility. I would say,

0:28:18.119 --> 0:28:20.160
<v Speaker 1>if you look down at the numbers are still pretty good.

0:28:20.320 --> 0:28:24.000
<v Speaker 1>Consumer confidence is at an eighteen year high. Small business

0:28:24.000 --> 0:28:28.080
<v Speaker 1>confidence is at i think in all time high. Unemployments

0:28:28.080 --> 0:28:32.600
<v Speaker 1>obviously very low. Corporate earnings have been strong um and

0:28:32.640 --> 0:28:35.440
<v Speaker 1>what we're seeing with our companies is generally pretty good,

0:28:35.640 --> 0:28:38.680
<v Speaker 1>so that's positive. I think the issue, back to my

0:28:38.720 --> 0:28:43.120
<v Speaker 1>earlier comments, is as the labor market titans, the FED

0:28:43.280 --> 0:28:47.640
<v Speaker 1>naturally is going to move towards raising rates, and that

0:28:47.920 --> 0:28:51.840
<v Speaker 1>is going to put pressure on multiples. And that's really

0:28:51.880 --> 0:28:55.360
<v Speaker 1>the shift we're facing right now. So it's very possible

0:28:55.440 --> 0:28:59.120
<v Speaker 1>you could see a decoupling where economic growth continues to

0:28:59.200 --> 0:29:03.400
<v Speaker 1>be pretty good, but because wages go up, that impacts

0:29:03.480 --> 0:29:08.600
<v Speaker 1>companies bottom lines and becomes multiples come under pressure. Valuations

0:29:08.640 --> 0:29:11.320
<v Speaker 1>don't grow at the same rate that the economy maybe,

0:29:11.560 --> 0:29:15.000
<v Speaker 1>so you have a stronger economy, less growth in valuation,

0:29:15.400 --> 0:29:17.640
<v Speaker 1>and therefore as an investor, you have to become much

0:29:17.680 --> 0:29:21.680
<v Speaker 1>more selective in how you deploy capital. As you look

0:29:21.720 --> 0:29:25.719
<v Speaker 1>across the world, let's talk about Europe for for one second,

0:29:25.760 --> 0:29:28.560
<v Speaker 1>because bregit. Obviously I feel like every day they're more

0:29:28.640 --> 0:29:32.320
<v Speaker 1>in different headlines. Italy remains an opportunity. Europe is a

0:29:32.360 --> 0:29:36.000
<v Speaker 1>place where you guys have invested heavily across a lot

0:29:36.040 --> 0:29:39.320
<v Speaker 1>of different asset classes. What's the opportunity or is there

0:29:39.360 --> 0:29:42.719
<v Speaker 1>an opportunity there right now? So interestingly, on Europe, I'd

0:29:42.720 --> 0:29:46.840
<v Speaker 1>almost say the opposite. I'd say growth in Europe is challenged,

0:29:46.880 --> 0:29:49.240
<v Speaker 1>and growth is challenged because if you think about what

0:29:49.400 --> 0:29:51.800
<v Speaker 1>leads to economic growth, you want an environment where there's

0:29:51.920 --> 0:29:56.680
<v Speaker 1>more certainty. People have confidence today with what's happening in Brexit,

0:29:56.840 --> 0:29:59.440
<v Speaker 1>what's happening in Italy, what's happening with some of the

0:29:59.480 --> 0:30:03.160
<v Speaker 1>more extreme political parties, it's making people more cautious to

0:30:03.280 --> 0:30:06.720
<v Speaker 1>invest to higher and so I think that translates into

0:30:06.840 --> 0:30:10.120
<v Speaker 1>slower growth in Europe. Now you might say, gosh, then

0:30:10.120 --> 0:30:11.920
<v Speaker 1>I don't want to invest in Europe, But then you

0:30:12.000 --> 0:30:14.360
<v Speaker 1>have to say the good news is rates are likely

0:30:14.440 --> 0:30:17.080
<v Speaker 1>to stay lower for longer in Europe and there are

0:30:17.200 --> 0:30:20.480
<v Speaker 1>fewer people who are enthused about investing in Europe. So

0:30:20.600 --> 0:30:24.320
<v Speaker 1>we in the last six weeks announced two large deals

0:30:24.360 --> 0:30:28.680
<v Speaker 1>in the UK. I just said Brexit slowed growth, but

0:30:28.960 --> 0:30:31.080
<v Speaker 1>we were able to buy these arches under the rail

0:30:31.120 --> 0:30:35.040
<v Speaker 1>network in the UK. We were buying a big convention

0:30:35.080 --> 0:30:39.280
<v Speaker 1>in arena business in Birmingham, UK because in both cases

0:30:39.560 --> 0:30:41.520
<v Speaker 1>we felt like we were able to price in a

0:30:41.600 --> 0:30:44.960
<v Speaker 1>lower growth environment. So invest as investors, you have to

0:30:44.960 --> 0:30:47.600
<v Speaker 1>look at the matrix both ways. It's not just is

0:30:47.640 --> 0:30:50.800
<v Speaker 1>the economic climate favorable, it's what price do I have

0:30:50.920 --> 0:30:53.440
<v Speaker 1>to pay for that? So it's possible today and we're

0:30:53.480 --> 0:30:56.920
<v Speaker 1>I would say overall at Blackstone, Europe actually looks more

0:30:57.000 --> 0:31:01.200
<v Speaker 1>favorable because there's not a consensus that the place to invest.

0:31:01.280 --> 0:31:03.880
<v Speaker 1>You guys are the biggest in that business of you know,

0:31:04.000 --> 0:31:06.720
<v Speaker 1>backing hedge funds, fund of hedge funds. It feels like

0:31:06.720 --> 0:31:09.440
<v Speaker 1>we're in a state of existential crisis in hedge funds.

0:31:09.560 --> 0:31:13.360
<v Speaker 1>Is that what you see or what's the I think

0:31:13.960 --> 0:31:17.720
<v Speaker 1>the biggest challenges the traditional long short hedge fund business

0:31:18.160 --> 0:31:21.920
<v Speaker 1>is struggling in the equity markets. That the idea of

0:31:22.160 --> 0:31:27.200
<v Speaker 1>paying higher, higher fees um and trying and heading a

0:31:27.240 --> 0:31:31.000
<v Speaker 1>big chunk of market exposure and then providing significant outperformance.

0:31:31.160 --> 0:31:32.920
<v Speaker 1>That that as hard as the market gets more and

0:31:32.920 --> 0:31:36.240
<v Speaker 1>more efficient. So what I think that means is the

0:31:36.280 --> 0:31:40.240
<v Speaker 1>hedge fund business very much survives, but you see more

0:31:40.320 --> 0:31:43.600
<v Speaker 1>of the quants and and other strategies that are seeing

0:31:43.640 --> 0:31:47.360
<v Speaker 1>more capital flowing into them where they have moats around

0:31:47.360 --> 0:31:50.880
<v Speaker 1>their business and are able to deliver differentiated returns. I

0:31:50.920 --> 0:31:52.720
<v Speaker 1>think the other thing you're seeing in the hedge fund

0:31:52.800 --> 0:31:55.600
<v Speaker 1>world in our business is you do some other semi

0:31:55.640 --> 0:32:01.280
<v Speaker 1>liquid things Illinois receivables claims in certain other company bonds,

0:32:01.560 --> 0:32:05.440
<v Speaker 1>things that, um, you can get excess return without taking

0:32:05.480 --> 0:32:08.440
<v Speaker 1>undue risk. But I do think sort of the pure

0:32:09.040 --> 0:32:12.280
<v Speaker 1>long short equity business, some of the activists guys, because

0:32:12.280 --> 0:32:14.360
<v Speaker 1>there were so many people who went into that space

0:32:15.040 --> 0:32:17.960
<v Speaker 1>UM have seen some pressure. But long term, I think

0:32:17.960 --> 0:32:21.200
<v Speaker 1>the hedge fund business survives, but it just continues to evolve.

0:32:22.080 --> 0:32:24.480
<v Speaker 1>And that was my conversation part of my conversation Carol

0:32:24.560 --> 0:32:29.000
<v Speaker 1>with John Gray, the president and chief operating officer at Blackstone,

0:32:29.040 --> 0:32:31.920
<v Speaker 1>the world's largest firm of its kind, managing all sorts

0:32:31.920 --> 0:32:34.960
<v Speaker 1>of alternative assets. Almost half a trillion dollars they've got

0:32:35.000 --> 0:32:36.840
<v Speaker 1>under This is why you love to talk to folks

0:32:36.840 --> 0:32:39.400
<v Speaker 1>at Blackstone, because there's so much money and they're investing

0:32:39.400 --> 0:32:41.560
<v Speaker 1>it in different ways, so they have a real handle

0:32:41.920 --> 0:32:44.520
<v Speaker 1>on kind of where investors are finding interests, where money

0:32:44.560 --> 0:32:46.520
<v Speaker 1>is flowing. The other thing I thought that was interesting

0:32:46.520 --> 0:32:48.560
<v Speaker 1>that he that he talked about with you was this

0:32:48.640 --> 0:32:53.240
<v Speaker 1>whole idea of repricing um and valuations lower valuations, and

0:32:53.280 --> 0:32:55.760
<v Speaker 1>that can create an interesting investment environment. People who have

0:32:55.840 --> 0:32:59.080
<v Speaker 1>been on the sidelines waiting to come in now say hey,

0:32:59.120 --> 0:33:00.840
<v Speaker 1>this is a better prior A second, I can maybe

0:33:00.840 --> 0:33:02.600
<v Speaker 1>make some money off of this. Well, and I really

0:33:02.720 --> 0:33:05.320
<v Speaker 1>was intrigued by what he said about this decoupling between

0:33:05.320 --> 0:33:09.440
<v Speaker 1>sort of valuations and the economic data whereby sending the

0:33:09.480 --> 0:33:12.360
<v Speaker 1>valuations come down, but there's still growth to be had.

0:33:12.680 --> 0:33:16.360
<v Speaker 1>And look, that is magic for private equity. We know that,

0:33:16.480 --> 0:33:18.560
<v Speaker 1>and there are obviously a lot of opportunities. And I

0:33:18.600 --> 0:33:20.440
<v Speaker 1>go back to you know what Jim Culture shared with

0:33:20.480 --> 0:33:24.520
<v Speaker 1>us at the top of the You're Ahead show this

0:33:24.560 --> 0:33:29.000
<v Speaker 1>morning about the various places he's looking, including sports, including

0:33:29.040 --> 0:33:32.040
<v Speaker 1>you know, he had a riff on marijuana, you know,

0:33:32.200 --> 0:33:34.360
<v Speaker 1>all sorts of things. You just he had a whiff

0:33:34.400 --> 0:33:37.120
<v Speaker 1>of marijuana. He had a riff a riff. I'm just

0:33:37.200 --> 0:33:39.120
<v Speaker 1>checking a riff on, a riff on you know, the

0:33:39.200 --> 0:33:41.680
<v Speaker 1>You're Ahead, we're you know, we do things and looking

0:33:41.680 --> 0:33:44.280
<v Speaker 1>around the corner, what are you gonna see there? You're

0:33:44.320 --> 0:33:58.600
<v Speaker 1>listening to Bloomberg Business Week. Well, certainly people have their preferences,

0:33:59.080 --> 0:34:04.200
<v Speaker 1>their opinions. Shall we say about public transit, and the

0:34:04.240 --> 0:34:07.200
<v Speaker 1>man sitting before me, here's them all. He's Andy Biford.

0:34:07.200 --> 0:34:11.680
<v Speaker 1>He runs the mt A here uh in New York City. Andy,

0:34:11.800 --> 0:34:14.400
<v Speaker 1>thanks so much. We're having this conversation ahead of the

0:34:14.400 --> 0:34:16.920
<v Speaker 1>conversation we're gonna have upstairs at the at the year.

0:34:16.920 --> 0:34:18.560
<v Speaker 1>I had some and so I'm excited to get some

0:34:18.600 --> 0:34:21.840
<v Speaker 1>time with you ahead of that. I gotta tell you

0:34:21.840 --> 0:34:23.920
<v Speaker 1>your job must be pretty tough. I'm not sure you

0:34:24.000 --> 0:34:26.320
<v Speaker 1>get a lot of calls that say my subway ride

0:34:26.360 --> 0:34:30.279
<v Speaker 1>was amazing, Thank you so much. Not too many. I mean,

0:34:30.280 --> 0:34:33.920
<v Speaker 1>what is nice is the occasionally when I right on

0:34:33.960 --> 0:34:36.120
<v Speaker 1>the subway, and I do it every day. That's how

0:34:36.120 --> 0:34:38.839
<v Speaker 1>I get to him. From home. People do say you know,

0:34:39.200 --> 0:34:41.440
<v Speaker 1>you're doing a great job, or you or keep up

0:34:41.480 --> 0:34:44.480
<v Speaker 1>the great work, don't leave, please keep at it, which

0:34:44.480 --> 0:34:47.320
<v Speaker 1>I'm always humbled by. I'm always humbled by how gracious

0:34:47.320 --> 0:34:49.640
<v Speaker 1>New Yorkers are in what I know. It's a subject

0:34:49.680 --> 0:34:53.239
<v Speaker 1>of very great importance to them. It's it obviously is

0:34:53.280 --> 0:34:56.480
<v Speaker 1>a subject of great importance for sure. And everybody's got,

0:34:56.520 --> 0:34:59.000
<v Speaker 1>as I said, uh, their opinions. You know, when you

0:34:59.120 --> 0:35:03.680
<v Speaker 1>talk to people and you set out your priorities based

0:35:03.680 --> 0:35:06.520
<v Speaker 1>on what you hear from them. What's the single thing

0:35:06.520 --> 0:35:08.080
<v Speaker 1>you go back and say, this is this is the

0:35:08.080 --> 0:35:10.800
<v Speaker 1>thing we're going to fix first shot. Number one priority.

0:35:10.840 --> 0:35:13.160
<v Speaker 1>I'm crystal clear on this, and this goes for buses,

0:35:13.440 --> 0:35:16.560
<v Speaker 1>for subways, and for paratrans, all three of equal importance.

0:35:17.120 --> 0:35:21.920
<v Speaker 1>Number one priority is to provide safe, reliable, punctual, clean transit.

0:35:22.000 --> 0:35:23.400
<v Speaker 1>So you know, there's a lot of other things that

0:35:23.440 --> 0:35:25.800
<v Speaker 1>we need to attend to, but job one is you

0:35:25.920 --> 0:35:27.960
<v Speaker 1>pay to get from A to B. You want that

0:35:28.000 --> 0:35:31.239
<v Speaker 1>to happen reliably, predictably and on time. So that will

0:35:31.280 --> 0:35:34.440
<v Speaker 1>always be number one priority. And obviously the key thing

0:35:34.480 --> 0:35:37.319
<v Speaker 1>is to do that safely right And how big of

0:35:37.320 --> 0:35:41.640
<v Speaker 1>a challenge is that given the infrastructure that you're dealing with.

0:35:41.920 --> 0:35:44.840
<v Speaker 1>Let's just you know beginning, this is not a new system. No,

0:35:45.080 --> 0:35:47.279
<v Speaker 1>it's huge, and I knew that when I walked into

0:35:47.320 --> 0:35:49.240
<v Speaker 1>this chase. I mean, I'm used to dealing with old

0:35:49.680 --> 0:35:52.759
<v Speaker 1>transit infrastructure. I started my career thirty years ago just

0:35:52.800 --> 0:35:55.440
<v Speaker 1>about on the tube, the London Underground, which is actually

0:35:55.480 --> 0:35:57.600
<v Speaker 1>even older than the New York system. It's the oldest

0:35:57.600 --> 0:36:00.680
<v Speaker 1>system in the world. But massive investment has been has

0:36:00.680 --> 0:36:04.480
<v Speaker 1>been expended on the tube system and it looks completely

0:36:04.480 --> 0:36:08.400
<v Speaker 1>transformed now, So that both inspires me and and also

0:36:09.360 --> 0:36:11.920
<v Speaker 1>shows just what needs to be done. Here we are

0:36:11.960 --> 0:36:14.920
<v Speaker 1>dealing with equipment that my my miracle workers as I

0:36:15.000 --> 0:36:17.400
<v Speaker 1>call them, the fifty thou men and women of Transit.

0:36:17.840 --> 0:36:21.319
<v Speaker 1>They are in some cases using one hundred year old

0:36:21.480 --> 0:36:24.399
<v Speaker 1>signal frames. Now these this equipment is safe. Obviously we

0:36:24.600 --> 0:36:27.960
<v Speaker 1>keep it safe. But it's increasingly unreliable, and it is

0:36:28.000 --> 0:36:32.200
<v Speaker 1>increasingly difficult to maintain. And it's also um we we

0:36:32.239 --> 0:36:35.240
<v Speaker 1>even make our own parts. It's that old. The equipment

0:36:35.239 --> 0:36:37.600
<v Speaker 1>manufacturers have gone out of business, so it is a

0:36:37.680 --> 0:36:39.680
<v Speaker 1>daily challenge. We will not give up on it. The

0:36:39.800 --> 0:36:42.600
<v Speaker 1>big issue, and you know you're talking about the year ahead,

0:36:42.840 --> 0:36:45.360
<v Speaker 1>is to build the case for fast forward the complete

0:36:45.520 --> 0:36:48.520
<v Speaker 1>top to bottom modernization of transit. We have a great plan.

0:36:48.600 --> 0:36:51.279
<v Speaker 1>We just need the money. How much money do you need?

0:36:51.560 --> 0:36:53.120
<v Speaker 1>We need billions, you know I mean, And at the

0:36:53.200 --> 0:36:54.880
<v Speaker 1>end of the day I said in public it's a

0:36:55.000 --> 0:36:58.840
<v Speaker 1>round about forty billion. We're still finalizing the cost, but

0:36:59.600 --> 0:37:01.160
<v Speaker 1>we may be able to pair that in. But let's

0:37:01.160 --> 0:37:03.760
<v Speaker 1>just take that as an as an example. Forty billion

0:37:03.760 --> 0:37:05.600
<v Speaker 1>dollars a lot of money to you and me, but

0:37:05.680 --> 0:37:07.800
<v Speaker 1>not if you think that that's a ten year program.

0:37:07.880 --> 0:37:10.480
<v Speaker 1>Divide that by tenants around four billion dollars a year,

0:37:10.760 --> 0:37:13.799
<v Speaker 1>split between the state, the city, and the FEDS, and

0:37:13.880 --> 0:37:16.520
<v Speaker 1>that would move us from a state of emergency, which

0:37:16.520 --> 0:37:18.440
<v Speaker 1>we're currently in. The governor right to put us into

0:37:18.480 --> 0:37:21.759
<v Speaker 1>state of emergency given all the reliability problems. We could

0:37:21.800 --> 0:37:24.839
<v Speaker 1>go from state of emergency to state of the art

0:37:25.239 --> 0:37:28.560
<v Speaker 1>in less than four thousand days ten years. I think

0:37:28.560 --> 0:37:30.840
<v Speaker 1>most New Yorkers would say that would be four billion

0:37:30.880 --> 0:37:33.400
<v Speaker 1>dollars a year well spent, particularly when you think of

0:37:33.440 --> 0:37:37.200
<v Speaker 1>the US economy, the state economy, where literally trillions of

0:37:37.239 --> 0:37:40.640
<v Speaker 1>dollars for the for the country uphold in four billion

0:37:40.640 --> 0:37:43.000
<v Speaker 1>dollars to keep New New York at the forefront. I

0:37:43.000 --> 0:37:46.480
<v Speaker 1>think that's worth it. So among those three big constituencies,

0:37:46.480 --> 0:37:52.000
<v Speaker 1>those three funding elements, who's the most reluctant, Well, I

0:37:52.000 --> 0:37:54.600
<v Speaker 1>mean we've we've yet to finalize the case, so I'm

0:37:54.600 --> 0:37:57.200
<v Speaker 1>not hearing any pushback. I think just about everyone I

0:37:57.280 --> 0:38:00.600
<v Speaker 1>taught to be that city officials, be that state officials,

0:38:00.840 --> 0:38:03.880
<v Speaker 1>and we're beginning to engage with the Feds now. I

0:38:03.920 --> 0:38:06.080
<v Speaker 1>think the good news is most people get it. Most

0:38:06.120 --> 0:38:09.600
<v Speaker 1>people know that New York can't see this slow decline,

0:38:09.680 --> 0:38:13.240
<v Speaker 1>this decline in reliability. Most people understand that New Yorkers

0:38:13.239 --> 0:38:16.000
<v Speaker 1>are rightly frustrated and de fed up with the fact

0:38:16.040 --> 0:38:18.719
<v Speaker 1>that their services and where it should be. I like

0:38:18.800 --> 0:38:21.080
<v Speaker 1>to paint a picture of you know, I've traveled extensively

0:38:21.120 --> 0:38:22.920
<v Speaker 1>in the world. I've been to Hong Kong, I've been

0:38:22.920 --> 0:38:25.959
<v Speaker 1>to Singapore, I've been on these world class systems. Why

0:38:26.080 --> 0:38:28.719
<v Speaker 1>can't we have that? We absolutely can, and the fact

0:38:28.760 --> 0:38:31.400
<v Speaker 1>that London turned it around shows me that we can too.

0:38:31.440 --> 0:38:33.239
<v Speaker 1>So I need to make the case you don't. You

0:38:33.280 --> 0:38:35.839
<v Speaker 1>don't get billions by going out with a begging bowl.

0:38:35.920 --> 0:38:38.480
<v Speaker 1>You have to be way more sophisticated. We are putting

0:38:38.520 --> 0:38:42.040
<v Speaker 1>together a compelling economic impact analysis that I think will

0:38:42.080 --> 0:38:45.239
<v Speaker 1>be irresistible anybody from you are the president of the

0:38:45.280 --> 0:38:49.160
<v Speaker 1>New York City Transit Authority joining me here on Bloomberg.

0:38:49.480 --> 0:38:52.200
<v Speaker 1>Thanks for listening to Bloomberg Business Week. You can subscribe

0:38:52.200 --> 0:38:55.160
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0:38:55.320 --> 0:38:57.760
<v Speaker 1>You can also listen to our radio show every weekday

0:38:57.760 --> 0:39:00.239
<v Speaker 1>at two pm Eastern only on Bloomberg rad Yeah