1 00:00:02,440 --> 00:00:06,760 Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. 2 00:00:11,960 --> 00:00:16,360 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Catch us live weekdays 3 00:00:16,400 --> 00:00:19,840 Speaker 2: at seven am Eastern on applecar Player, Android Auto with 4 00:00:19,920 --> 00:00:23,360 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Business App. Listen on demand wherever you get 5 00:00:23,360 --> 00:00:26,200 Speaker 2: your podcasts, or watch us live on YouTube. 6 00:00:26,440 --> 00:00:27,200 Speaker 3: This is a joy. 7 00:00:27,720 --> 00:00:31,880 Speaker 4: Charlie Klow, I think I first knew him at Colonial Management. 8 00:00:31,920 --> 00:00:32,560 Speaker 3: This is ancient. 9 00:00:33,479 --> 00:00:35,880 Speaker 4: This is like John Hancock's house has just been torn 10 00:00:35,960 --> 00:00:38,400 Speaker 4: down up on tree Mont Street or wherever up. 11 00:00:38,320 --> 00:00:38,800 Speaker 3: On the hill. 12 00:00:39,240 --> 00:00:42,600 Speaker 4: Charlie Clau is definitive in Boston, definitive with Merrill Lynch, 13 00:00:42,640 --> 00:00:46,320 Speaker 4: and definitive within all the equity business. We're honored that 14 00:00:46,479 --> 00:00:50,200 Speaker 4: Chuck Clow would join us right now to get an update. Chuck, 15 00:00:50,240 --> 00:00:54,440 Speaker 4: you've seen bull markets before. What's the character of this bullmarket? 16 00:00:56,920 --> 00:00:57,160 Speaker 5: Well? 17 00:00:57,400 --> 00:01:02,040 Speaker 6: I think there are three factors playing here. Most important 18 00:01:02,120 --> 00:01:05,559 Speaker 6: is inflation. The CPI inflation has declined from nine point 19 00:01:05,560 --> 00:01:08,679 Speaker 6: one percent back in twenty twenty two to two point 20 00:01:08,720 --> 00:01:12,440 Speaker 6: four percent today. And the personal consumption deflator, which is 21 00:01:12,480 --> 00:01:15,200 Speaker 6: we all know what the FED looks at, that's running 22 00:01:15,200 --> 00:01:17,800 Speaker 6: about forty basis points below that around two percent, so 23 00:01:17,840 --> 00:01:23,039 Speaker 6: that's well within their target. There's a productivity boom going on. 24 00:01:23,520 --> 00:01:26,839 Speaker 6: If you look at total weekly hours, they've been declining 25 00:01:26,920 --> 00:01:29,319 Speaker 6: for the past two years, but the economy has grown, 26 00:01:29,520 --> 00:01:33,720 Speaker 6: and that's productivity makes up the difference, and productivity means 27 00:01:33,720 --> 00:01:37,240 Speaker 6: better profits. So our sense is that you've got a 28 00:01:37,240 --> 00:01:39,880 Speaker 6: profit engine at the same time that inflation has been 29 00:01:39,920 --> 00:01:43,360 Speaker 6: going in the right direction. And there is one third 30 00:01:43,400 --> 00:01:45,559 Speaker 6: thing going on that a lot of people haven't picked 31 00:01:45,600 --> 00:01:48,280 Speaker 6: up on. The private economy is generating cash, and that's 32 00:01:48,320 --> 00:01:52,279 Speaker 6: unusual this late in a business cycle. 33 00:01:52,400 --> 00:01:54,200 Speaker 5: Households are saving I. 34 00:01:54,120 --> 00:01:58,040 Speaker 6: Suspect it's baby boomers saving for retirement and making sure 35 00:01:58,120 --> 00:01:58,680 Speaker 6: they can. 36 00:01:58,520 --> 00:02:01,760 Speaker 5: Fund longer life spans paid. Businesses are paying down debt. 37 00:02:01,760 --> 00:02:04,160 Speaker 5: You can't. You can't go on a conference call where. 38 00:02:04,280 --> 00:02:06,919 Speaker 6: Management isn't trying to pay down debt here, and that's 39 00:02:06,960 --> 00:02:10,720 Speaker 6: creating somewhat of a liquidity surpluses. So businesses are earning 40 00:02:10,760 --> 00:02:13,400 Speaker 6: more than they're investing, and households are earning more than 41 00:02:13,400 --> 00:02:16,720 Speaker 6: their safe then they're investing as well. That means we've 42 00:02:16,720 --> 00:02:20,040 Speaker 6: got a savings glut and that's probably pushed will likely 43 00:02:20,080 --> 00:02:21,200 Speaker 6: push interest rates down. 44 00:02:22,040 --> 00:02:24,680 Speaker 7: Chuck, how do you feel about valuation here? We're getting 45 00:02:24,680 --> 00:02:27,400 Speaker 7: some we're getting into the thick of the earnings season here, 46 00:02:27,800 --> 00:02:29,480 Speaker 7: How do you think about valuation in this market? We've 47 00:02:29,520 --> 00:02:31,240 Speaker 7: had a nice move higher in the s and P 48 00:02:31,320 --> 00:02:32,160 Speaker 7: five hundred this year. 49 00:02:33,120 --> 00:02:35,200 Speaker 5: Uh, you know, I don't. 50 00:02:36,520 --> 00:02:39,480 Speaker 6: It's hard to time markets on the basis of valuation. 51 00:02:39,639 --> 00:02:44,080 Speaker 6: I think with cash, with businesses generating free cash flow 52 00:02:44,120 --> 00:02:48,280 Speaker 6: at the rate they are, I think valuation becomes less 53 00:02:48,280 --> 00:02:51,679 Speaker 6: of a less of a factor. If the private economy 54 00:02:51,720 --> 00:02:54,799 Speaker 6: is throwing off excess cash, that's going to find its 55 00:02:54,800 --> 00:02:56,480 Speaker 6: way into the capital market somehow. 56 00:02:57,360 --> 00:03:00,680 Speaker 7: Chuck, We've had a market for the longest time, many 57 00:03:00,720 --> 00:03:02,880 Speaker 7: many years that's been led by technology, and now I 58 00:03:02,919 --> 00:03:05,680 Speaker 7: guess the latest iteration of that, Chuck, is the AI. 59 00:03:06,400 --> 00:03:09,359 Speaker 7: What sectors do you look to continue to move this 60 00:03:09,480 --> 00:03:10,240 Speaker 7: market higher? 61 00:03:12,160 --> 00:03:16,280 Speaker 6: Well, AI is important, and quite frankly, I don't think 62 00:03:16,320 --> 00:03:21,800 Speaker 6: the fangs are over. It's again, when you look at 63 00:03:21,800 --> 00:03:25,040 Speaker 6: the cash flow that they generate and the growth that 64 00:03:25,120 --> 00:03:27,360 Speaker 6: they have, it's not out of line at all. I 65 00:03:27,360 --> 00:03:30,200 Speaker 6: mean Google, actually he trades it below market multiple so 66 00:03:32,320 --> 00:03:35,640 Speaker 6: I sense that I think you want to stay there. 67 00:03:35,680 --> 00:03:38,880 Speaker 6: But there are other things going on as well. Aerospace 68 00:03:38,960 --> 00:03:43,040 Speaker 6: defense is an industry that is coming on Boeing's of 69 00:03:43,080 --> 00:03:46,240 Speaker 6: course is wounded, but that makes Airbus all that more 70 00:03:46,600 --> 00:03:50,520 Speaker 6: important and certally, I think there's one area I would 71 00:03:50,560 --> 00:03:53,560 Speaker 6: look at, and it crosses industries. But if we're right 72 00:03:53,600 --> 00:03:58,280 Speaker 6: and the economy is generating cash, a lot of businesses 73 00:03:58,360 --> 00:04:00,720 Speaker 6: were forced to take on a lot of debt when 74 00:04:00,760 --> 00:04:05,680 Speaker 6: COVID basically closed everything down. As businesses generate cash and 75 00:04:05,760 --> 00:04:09,000 Speaker 6: pay down that debt, that helped pities as well. So 76 00:04:09,360 --> 00:04:13,000 Speaker 6: I think anybody who's deleveraging their balance sheet, the cruise 77 00:04:13,040 --> 00:04:15,200 Speaker 6: might stand to stand out in that sense. 78 00:04:15,840 --> 00:04:17,160 Speaker 5: Is an opportunity there as well. 79 00:04:17,440 --> 00:04:19,120 Speaker 4: Chuck Cloher, I'd like to talk to people of a 80 00:04:19,120 --> 00:04:22,279 Speaker 4: certain vintage. I think of ed Hymen, ed Yard Danny 81 00:04:22,360 --> 00:04:24,040 Speaker 4: course had incredibly bullish. 82 00:04:24,279 --> 00:04:24,800 Speaker 3: Let us go. 83 00:04:24,839 --> 00:04:28,640 Speaker 4: Back, Chuck Cloud to the nifty to fifty, the Joseph 84 00:04:28,680 --> 00:04:36,320 Speaker 4: Schlitz Brewing Company. Let's see what else Black and Decker, Eastman, Kodak, Cube, Blick, 85 00:04:37,200 --> 00:04:40,480 Speaker 4: zerra X Rocks, names from another time in place. 86 00:04:41,080 --> 00:04:44,760 Speaker 3: Chuck Clowd on the nifty seven. What's going to become 87 00:04:44,800 --> 00:04:48,560 Speaker 3: of them? Are they the next Joseph Schlitz Brewing Company? 88 00:04:49,960 --> 00:04:52,440 Speaker 6: Well, I think what happened two things happened to the 89 00:04:52,520 --> 00:04:57,040 Speaker 6: nifty seven fifty one was the course that they were 90 00:04:58,160 --> 00:05:02,320 Speaker 6: very very high multiple up on the fifties, sometimes certainly 91 00:05:02,320 --> 00:05:05,800 Speaker 6: thirty five to fifty times earnings. But secondly they stopped growing, 92 00:05:05,880 --> 00:05:08,600 Speaker 6: and I think that was the engine that came into part. 93 00:05:08,680 --> 00:05:11,680 Speaker 6: The same thing with the dot com boom. A that 94 00:05:11,920 --> 00:05:18,600 Speaker 6: was that was basically supported by a dead boom, tremendous overinvestment, 95 00:05:19,200 --> 00:05:23,200 Speaker 6: and of course his earnings collapsed, so did the values there. 96 00:05:23,520 --> 00:05:24,000 Speaker 5: I think the. 97 00:05:23,960 --> 00:05:28,720 Speaker 6: AI situation is quite different. These are companies with tremendous platforms. 98 00:05:28,760 --> 00:05:33,520 Speaker 6: When you look at companies like Microsoft for example, you 99 00:05:33,600 --> 00:05:37,560 Speaker 6: know the only company that survived the dot com boom 100 00:05:38,160 --> 00:05:42,159 Speaker 6: and continued to dominate was was Microsoft. Of course Google 101 00:05:42,200 --> 00:05:45,120 Speaker 6: and Amazon came on in the arts, but they made 102 00:05:45,200 --> 00:05:50,440 Speaker 6: all of the transitions necessary as technology changes. They captured 103 00:05:50,440 --> 00:05:56,680 Speaker 6: the cloud, they captured AI. That's a dramatic difference between 104 00:05:56,839 --> 00:05:58,040 Speaker 6: these are cycles. 105 00:05:58,080 --> 00:06:00,040 Speaker 5: So I still think there are a lot. 106 00:06:00,640 --> 00:06:04,520 Speaker 4: Chuck within the productivity boom you mentioned. Do you ascribe 107 00:06:04,560 --> 00:06:08,159 Speaker 4: to ed Yard Denny's Roaring twenties? Can you take a 108 00:06:08,240 --> 00:06:11,080 Speaker 4: vector and run it out one year, two years, three years, 109 00:06:11,120 --> 00:06:14,320 Speaker 4: five years and come up with big SPX and big 110 00:06:14,360 --> 00:06:22,240 Speaker 4: Dow Jones Industrial average numbers. 111 00:06:20,000 --> 00:06:20,800 Speaker 5: I think you can. 112 00:06:21,240 --> 00:06:25,960 Speaker 6: And the reason I say that is there are three 113 00:06:26,000 --> 00:06:30,400 Speaker 6: factors that But let's look at the events that created 114 00:06:30,480 --> 00:06:34,520 Speaker 6: forty years of declining interest rates and declining inflation, and 115 00:06:34,600 --> 00:06:38,480 Speaker 6: of course that was interrupted by COVID and the tremendous 116 00:06:38,520 --> 00:06:39,600 Speaker 6: government response to that. 117 00:06:39,640 --> 00:06:41,120 Speaker 5: But those three factors were. 118 00:06:41,120 --> 00:06:44,760 Speaker 6: One. Demographics, As people aged, they get older. We've seen 119 00:06:44,800 --> 00:06:47,480 Speaker 6: that in Japan for thirty years, and we started seeing 120 00:06:47,520 --> 00:06:51,400 Speaker 6: that in Europe in the early teens, and now we're 121 00:06:51,400 --> 00:06:53,880 Speaker 6: seeing it in the United States where we are seeing 122 00:06:53,920 --> 00:06:58,239 Speaker 6: the baby boomers retire. And once you retire, you stop spending. 123 00:06:58,279 --> 00:07:01,480 Speaker 6: You don't buy houses, you don't buy cars. So it's 124 00:07:01,520 --> 00:07:03,520 Speaker 6: one of the reasons why we think we're beginning to 125 00:07:03,560 --> 00:07:06,600 Speaker 6: see a net savings balance in the household sector, and 126 00:07:06,640 --> 00:07:09,239 Speaker 6: of course i'll only pick up as the baby boomers 127 00:07:09,279 --> 00:07:13,520 Speaker 6: really really do retire. And the second thing, of course, 128 00:07:13,600 --> 00:07:17,200 Speaker 6: is where balance sheets are. Private debt is still one 129 00:07:17,280 --> 00:07:19,600 Speaker 6: hundred and fifty percent of GDP, and that means his 130 00:07:19,720 --> 00:07:22,640 Speaker 6: interest rates do go up, it slows and spending. We're 131 00:07:22,640 --> 00:07:25,640 Speaker 6: seeing that in credit cards. And then thirdly there's technology, 132 00:07:26,000 --> 00:07:29,680 Speaker 6: which of course is booming today. It's one investment cycle. 133 00:07:29,720 --> 00:07:32,520 Speaker 6: We have you put those three things together. They only 134 00:07:32,520 --> 00:07:34,400 Speaker 6: become more intense as we go through the rest of 135 00:07:34,440 --> 00:07:37,560 Speaker 6: the decade. So I wouldn't give up financial assets yet. 136 00:07:37,720 --> 00:07:40,760 Speaker 4: For those of you younger listening on your commute across 137 00:07:40,760 --> 00:07:45,040 Speaker 4: this nation, around the world, good evening in the Pacific Rim. 138 00:07:44,680 --> 00:07:45,640 Speaker 3: And on YouTube. 139 00:07:45,880 --> 00:07:49,920 Speaker 4: The cadence you're hearing from one Charles Klow is like 140 00:07:50,000 --> 00:07:54,280 Speaker 4: the old days, Pauw. It wasn't rushed in frantic it 141 00:07:54,360 --> 00:07:57,800 Speaker 4: was just here's the three reasons we believe there's a 142 00:07:57,840 --> 00:07:59,520 Speaker 4: cadence a pace here. 143 00:07:59,600 --> 00:08:03,680 Speaker 7: We try, chuck, what is the risk to this market here? 144 00:08:03,720 --> 00:08:04,920 Speaker 7: I mean I step back and I look at the 145 00:08:05,000 --> 00:08:07,440 Speaker 7: S and P five twenty percent year to date, and 146 00:08:07,440 --> 00:08:08,880 Speaker 7: that was kind of in a blink of an eye. 147 00:08:09,560 --> 00:08:13,160 Speaker 7: Is the risk here? Maybe the Federal Reserve makes a misstep. 148 00:08:13,280 --> 00:08:14,720 Speaker 7: How what concerns you out there? 149 00:08:15,960 --> 00:08:21,240 Speaker 6: I would say, well, of course, in the geopolitical front, 150 00:08:21,280 --> 00:08:24,360 Speaker 6: there's more moving targets than you can then you can 151 00:08:24,440 --> 00:08:25,320 Speaker 6: really attest. 152 00:08:25,480 --> 00:08:28,120 Speaker 5: But I would say that would be the most important factor. 153 00:08:28,200 --> 00:08:28,800 Speaker 5: The FED. 154 00:08:30,640 --> 00:08:35,480 Speaker 6: Overtightening in in a period. I think the risk for 155 00:08:35,520 --> 00:08:38,079 Speaker 6: that is lower than it was in the past. I 156 00:08:38,120 --> 00:08:40,640 Speaker 6: remember the FED still has a seven trillion dollar allergy 157 00:08:41,160 --> 00:08:44,280 Speaker 6: and it looks like they're likely to stop there, and 158 00:08:44,320 --> 00:08:47,640 Speaker 6: that gives them an awful lot of resources to take 159 00:08:47,840 --> 00:08:52,240 Speaker 6: a little any kind of any kind of liquidity event 160 00:08:52,280 --> 00:08:56,680 Speaker 6: that might occur. And the second is our financial sector 161 00:08:56,840 --> 00:08:59,840 Speaker 6: is heavily overcapitalized, so it's it's an. 162 00:09:00,360 --> 00:09:01,640 Speaker 5: We've never really looked at before. 163 00:09:01,720 --> 00:09:04,200 Speaker 6: The financial sector is over capitalized at the same time 164 00:09:04,200 --> 00:09:06,160 Speaker 6: as the household and corporate sectors are saving. 165 00:09:06,760 --> 00:09:08,560 Speaker 5: That creates a liquidy. I would say the. 166 00:09:08,559 --> 00:09:12,720 Speaker 6: Biggest risk that investors might look at over the years 167 00:09:12,720 --> 00:09:16,600 Speaker 6: ag is IL shortage will be back. Look at how 168 00:09:16,640 --> 00:09:21,480 Speaker 6: triple b's are nearing the treasury rate. It's going to 169 00:09:21,520 --> 00:09:24,440 Speaker 6: be harder and harder to find yield, and eventually that 170 00:09:24,480 --> 00:09:26,240 Speaker 6: will hit the short end of the curve as well. 171 00:09:26,480 --> 00:09:28,800 Speaker 4: Charlie Clough, thank you, thank you, thank you so much, 172 00:09:29,040 --> 00:09:31,520 Speaker 4: channeling Sir John Templeton there at the end. 173 00:09:31,520 --> 00:09:33,880 Speaker 3: Templeton once said to me, Tom. 174 00:09:33,640 --> 00:09:37,439 Speaker 4: There will be a shortage of bonds. Charles Kloud legendary, 175 00:09:37,480 --> 00:09:40,720 Speaker 4: of course, great to have him on, always associated with 176 00:09:42,000 --> 00:09:42,720 Speaker 4: Merrill Lynch. 177 00:09:48,120 --> 00:09:51,959 Speaker 2: You're listening to the Bloomberg Surveillance podcast. Catch us live 178 00:09:52,080 --> 00:09:55,360 Speaker 2: weekday afternoons from seven to ten am Easter. Listen on 179 00:09:55,440 --> 00:09:58,679 Speaker 2: Apple car Play and Android Auto with a Bloomberg Business app, 180 00:09:58,760 --> 00:10:00,600 Speaker 2: or watch us live on YouTube. 181 00:10:00,720 --> 00:10:02,880 Speaker 3: We get wisdom from Jennifer Lawless. 182 00:10:03,520 --> 00:10:08,920 Speaker 4: She's at UVA, outstanding on the politics of the American system. 183 00:10:09,360 --> 00:10:12,440 Speaker 4: Jennifer Lawless, as you look at the campaign now three 184 00:10:12,480 --> 00:10:17,240 Speaker 4: weeks out, what does mister Trump have to accomplish today? 185 00:10:17,840 --> 00:10:20,120 Speaker 4: At the Economic Club of Chicago. 186 00:10:21,480 --> 00:10:23,760 Speaker 8: I think Donald Trump has to make it clear to 187 00:10:24,120 --> 00:10:27,800 Speaker 8: business people that he can only win the election if 188 00:10:28,120 --> 00:10:30,760 Speaker 8: he focuses on the economy and if they do everything 189 00:10:30,800 --> 00:10:32,840 Speaker 8: they can to act as surrogates for him. 190 00:10:33,200 --> 00:10:35,520 Speaker 9: He's had a very hard time staying on message. 191 00:10:35,640 --> 00:10:37,880 Speaker 8: He's had a very hard time convincing people that he 192 00:10:37,920 --> 00:10:41,360 Speaker 8: has the discipline to be president again. And so this 193 00:10:41,400 --> 00:10:44,120 Speaker 8: is a final shot to get people who are in 194 00:10:44,160 --> 00:10:46,559 Speaker 8: that industry to make his argument. 195 00:10:47,000 --> 00:10:50,320 Speaker 4: No surprise, we had Simon Johnson on yesterday, the newly 196 00:10:50,360 --> 00:10:53,400 Speaker 4: minted Nobel Prize winner, and he knows I'm going to 197 00:10:53,400 --> 00:10:55,640 Speaker 4: give him the question at the end of the conversation, 198 00:10:56,480 --> 00:11:00,240 Speaker 4: and I asked Professor Johnson about tariffs and he went 199 00:11:00,400 --> 00:11:02,000 Speaker 4: mental like anyone. 200 00:11:01,640 --> 00:11:05,600 Speaker 3: At Darden or UVA would and just went nuts. Who 201 00:11:05,640 --> 00:11:10,439 Speaker 3: out there as supporting President Trump in any tariffs, let 202 00:11:10,480 --> 00:11:12,679 Speaker 3: alone sizable tariffs. 203 00:11:13,520 --> 00:11:15,440 Speaker 9: People who don't know what tariffs are. 204 00:11:15,920 --> 00:11:19,280 Speaker 8: If anything, this election has made it very clear that 205 00:11:19,400 --> 00:11:22,720 Speaker 8: the two sides are talking past each other, that the 206 00:11:22,840 --> 00:11:26,240 Speaker 8: Republicans have managed to subject to the American public quite 207 00:11:26,280 --> 00:11:30,959 Speaker 8: successfully that fact checking is partisan and that allows Donald 208 00:11:30,960 --> 00:11:33,480 Speaker 8: Trump to call a tariff anything that he wants and 209 00:11:33,520 --> 00:11:35,360 Speaker 8: not take into account the fact that it really is 210 00:11:35,400 --> 00:11:37,040 Speaker 8: a tax on the American people. 211 00:11:38,040 --> 00:11:42,120 Speaker 7: Jennifer is the economic message for the Donald Trump and 212 00:11:42,160 --> 00:11:46,640 Speaker 7: his campaign primarily are simply tax cuts. Is that kind 213 00:11:46,640 --> 00:11:51,400 Speaker 7: of where they base most of their economic call. 214 00:11:51,440 --> 00:11:52,400 Speaker 9: That's the plan. 215 00:11:52,800 --> 00:11:54,959 Speaker 8: It's unclear that he would be able to get them through, 216 00:11:55,040 --> 00:11:57,440 Speaker 8: but that is the plan. But the other piece of 217 00:11:57,480 --> 00:12:00,360 Speaker 8: the message is that the Biden economy didn't work and 218 00:12:00,440 --> 00:12:03,920 Speaker 8: Kamala Harris is responsible for it, and those metrics just 219 00:12:03,920 --> 00:12:04,720 Speaker 8: don't play out. 220 00:12:04,840 --> 00:12:06,360 Speaker 9: The evidence isn't there for it. 221 00:12:06,800 --> 00:12:09,200 Speaker 8: But inflation, even though it's at the lowest rate that 222 00:12:09,240 --> 00:12:12,000 Speaker 8: it's been in four years, is still inflation and people 223 00:12:12,040 --> 00:12:14,760 Speaker 8: still feel it in their pockets. And the Democrats haven't 224 00:12:14,760 --> 00:12:16,640 Speaker 8: fully figured out how to thread that needle. 225 00:12:17,480 --> 00:12:20,240 Speaker 4: Does he kind of veer off economics today at the 226 00:12:20,280 --> 00:12:23,720 Speaker 4: Economic Club of New York. I mean, given the cadence 227 00:12:23,760 --> 00:12:27,480 Speaker 4: and patterns supporters of mister Trump and those against mister 228 00:12:27,480 --> 00:12:30,200 Speaker 4: Trump have seen over the last number of weeks, is 229 00:12:30,200 --> 00:12:33,599 Speaker 4: his basic economic strategy to not talk about economics. 230 00:12:35,200 --> 00:12:37,880 Speaker 8: If I were a betting woman, I would suggest that 231 00:12:37,920 --> 00:12:40,400 Speaker 8: there will be a lot about immigration and the speech. 232 00:12:40,480 --> 00:12:43,840 Speaker 8: The minute he mentions the economy, he doesn't seem like 233 00:12:43,960 --> 00:12:47,720 Speaker 8: he can pull himself away from talking about illegal border 234 00:12:47,760 --> 00:12:52,440 Speaker 8: crossings and perpetuating myths about what immigrants have done to 235 00:12:52,559 --> 00:12:53,239 Speaker 8: the economy. 236 00:12:54,559 --> 00:12:59,600 Speaker 4: So that's important, Professor Lawless, what have immigrants, legal and 237 00:12:59,679 --> 00:13:02,119 Speaker 4: not legal done to the economy. 238 00:13:03,200 --> 00:13:06,120 Speaker 8: They've actually allowed it to grow and thrive. Donald Trump 239 00:13:06,200 --> 00:13:11,200 Speaker 8: wants to make an argument that immigration has taken away Americans' jobs, 240 00:13:11,280 --> 00:13:13,360 Speaker 8: but I think what a lot of people don't seem 241 00:13:13,400 --> 00:13:15,520 Speaker 8: to realize, and the message that the Harris campaign is 242 00:13:15,559 --> 00:13:18,320 Speaker 8: trying to make clear is that there are a lot 243 00:13:18,320 --> 00:13:21,640 Speaker 8: of jobs out there that people need done, and the 244 00:13:21,960 --> 00:13:24,359 Speaker 8: immigrants are the backbone of this economy. 245 00:13:24,559 --> 00:13:27,439 Speaker 4: Lisa Paul Sweeney, we live this every day in a 246 00:13:27,520 --> 00:13:31,960 Speaker 4: cosmopolitan New York. Walk X number of blocks north south 247 00:13:32,320 --> 00:13:34,920 Speaker 4: down any street in New York and tell me that 248 00:13:35,080 --> 00:13:39,760 Speaker 4: many of those immigrant jobs, they're only being filled because 249 00:13:39,760 --> 00:13:40,439 Speaker 4: of immigrants. 250 00:13:40,600 --> 00:13:42,480 Speaker 7: It's been that way since the beginning of this country. 251 00:13:42,480 --> 00:13:44,400 Speaker 7: I don't know why today it would be any different, 252 00:13:45,360 --> 00:13:49,600 Speaker 7: Jennifer twenty one days roughly to the election. Is there 253 00:13:49,880 --> 00:13:52,280 Speaker 7: anything that can move the needle one way or the other, 254 00:13:52,280 --> 00:13:54,440 Speaker 7: because I'm just it just feels like it's so tight, 255 00:13:54,520 --> 00:13:57,160 Speaker 7: and then both sides are so entrenched. 256 00:13:58,280 --> 00:14:01,440 Speaker 8: It's hard to imagine any big event or what we 257 00:14:01,520 --> 00:14:04,000 Speaker 8: used to call in October surprise, largely because people have 258 00:14:04,040 --> 00:14:07,600 Speaker 8: already started voting. It seems like with only about four 259 00:14:07,640 --> 00:14:10,439 Speaker 8: percent of people saying that they're undecided, this is now 260 00:14:10,480 --> 00:14:15,000 Speaker 8: officially a turnout election. And so when Kamala Harris goes 261 00:14:15,000 --> 00:14:18,160 Speaker 8: on Fox News and makes her case to Republicans who 262 00:14:18,240 --> 00:14:21,560 Speaker 8: might have supported Nicki Haley, that could matter. When Donald 263 00:14:21,600 --> 00:14:25,280 Speaker 8: Trump goes on Joe Rogan's podcast and tries to get 264 00:14:25,480 --> 00:14:28,160 Speaker 8: a sliver of black men to vote for him, that 265 00:14:28,200 --> 00:14:28,720 Speaker 8: could matter. 266 00:14:28,840 --> 00:14:31,440 Speaker 9: These aren't big shops to the system. This is really 267 00:14:31,520 --> 00:14:33,000 Speaker 9: just about the margins. 268 00:14:33,080 --> 00:14:36,040 Speaker 7: And in get out the vote scenario where turnout is 269 00:14:36,080 --> 00:14:38,840 Speaker 7: going to be key. Here does that favor either side 270 00:14:38,880 --> 00:14:40,280 Speaker 7: at this point typically. 271 00:14:42,320 --> 00:14:45,560 Speaker 9: Typically not necessarily in twenty twenty. 272 00:14:45,560 --> 00:14:48,960 Speaker 8: It certainly did because the Democrats had a very very 273 00:14:49,040 --> 00:14:51,080 Speaker 8: clear mail in ballot strategy. 274 00:14:51,440 --> 00:14:52,800 Speaker 9: They do again this time around. 275 00:14:52,840 --> 00:14:56,840 Speaker 8: The Republicans aren't as opposed to early voting and absentee 276 00:14:56,880 --> 00:14:58,840 Speaker 8: ballots as they were in the past. We'll see if 277 00:14:58,880 --> 00:15:01,680 Speaker 8: that message has trickled down to their voters, but my 278 00:15:02,000 --> 00:15:05,800 Speaker 8: hunch is that, similar to previous elections, the country is 279 00:15:05,840 --> 00:15:08,200 Speaker 8: really really split and both sides are going to do 280 00:15:08,240 --> 00:15:10,000 Speaker 8: everything they can to turn out their voters. 281 00:15:10,200 --> 00:15:12,640 Speaker 4: Let's go to your wheelhouse a study of women in 282 00:15:12,720 --> 00:15:16,160 Speaker 4: politics as well. Here's a bold question that came up 283 00:15:16,160 --> 00:15:19,480 Speaker 4: to the dining room table last night, Jennifer Laws. Can 284 00:15:19,520 --> 00:15:22,040 Speaker 4: a woman be elected president in America? 285 00:15:23,320 --> 00:15:23,960 Speaker 9: Absolutely? 286 00:15:24,360 --> 00:15:26,600 Speaker 8: I think it's important to keep in mind that although 287 00:15:26,680 --> 00:15:29,280 Speaker 8: Hillary Clinton lost the electoral vote, and that's how we 288 00:15:29,360 --> 00:15:32,200 Speaker 8: elect presidents, she did win the popular vote, so more 289 00:15:32,200 --> 00:15:35,080 Speaker 8: people cast ballots for her than they did Donald Trump, 290 00:15:35,240 --> 00:15:37,880 Speaker 8: but just didn't live in the right places. Kamala Harris 291 00:15:37,920 --> 00:15:40,640 Speaker 8: is doing everything she can not to repeat the mistakes 292 00:15:40,640 --> 00:15:43,680 Speaker 8: of the Clinton campaign, and if we look at the polling, 293 00:15:43,880 --> 00:15:47,840 Speaker 8: it's pretty difficult to imagine a scenario whereby Harris doesn't 294 00:15:47,840 --> 00:15:50,960 Speaker 8: win the popular vote by several million. Whether that translates 295 00:15:51,000 --> 00:15:54,160 Speaker 8: into an electoral margin is an open question, but people 296 00:15:54,240 --> 00:15:56,440 Speaker 8: are willing to cast ballots for women, and they have 297 00:15:56,600 --> 00:15:58,440 Speaker 8: been down ballot for decades. 298 00:15:58,640 --> 00:16:01,240 Speaker 4: Jennifer, thank you so much for us lawless at the 299 00:16:01,360 --> 00:16:03,240 Speaker 4: University of Virginia. 300 00:16:03,800 --> 00:16:08,080 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 301 00:16:08,160 --> 00:16:11,360 Speaker 2: starting at seven am Eastern on applecar Play and Android 302 00:16:11,400 --> 00:16:14,240 Speaker 2: Auto with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen 303 00:16:14,360 --> 00:16:17,480 Speaker 2: live on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station 304 00:16:17,880 --> 00:16:20,560 Speaker 2: just say Alexa playing Bloomberg eleven thirty. 305 00:16:20,800 --> 00:16:21,720 Speaker 3: This is by chance. 306 00:16:21,920 --> 00:16:23,960 Speaker 4: I've been efforting for the last number of days with 307 00:16:24,240 --> 00:16:28,600 Speaker 4: Eric Mark Kimmitt. He is a retired brigadier general. He 308 00:16:28,800 --> 00:16:33,400 Speaker 4: enjoyed the army when it was most unpopular after Vietnam. 309 00:16:33,520 --> 00:16:37,520 Speaker 4: Is a battery executive officer at Camp Stanley in Korea. 310 00:16:38,120 --> 00:16:42,880 Speaker 4: He has distinguished academics in finance as well as a 311 00:16:43,000 --> 00:16:47,040 Speaker 4: chartered financial analyst. And we have him here by chance 312 00:16:47,840 --> 00:16:50,440 Speaker 4: on a day where our John Micklthrait will speak with 313 00:16:50,520 --> 00:16:54,880 Speaker 4: Donald Trump, presidential candidate and former president. We'll ask some 314 00:16:55,000 --> 00:16:59,600 Speaker 4: delit delicate questions of General Kimmitt. I'm not going to 315 00:16:59,640 --> 00:17:02,360 Speaker 4: mince we're's General Kimmitt and this course course over their 316 00:17:02,400 --> 00:17:08,080 Speaker 4: conversations with admiralster Vedas Ben Hodges. In others, John Kelly 317 00:17:08,240 --> 00:17:12,440 Speaker 4: has come out and set some terse comments about President Trump. 318 00:17:13,960 --> 00:17:18,840 Speaker 4: General Miley in the new Woodward Burke with terse comments 319 00:17:18,920 --> 00:17:23,600 Speaker 4: about the president. If Donald Trump is re elected, Mark Kimmitt, 320 00:17:23,960 --> 00:17:27,879 Speaker 4: how does he form a defense establishment with that kind 321 00:17:27,920 --> 00:17:32,520 Speaker 4: of accolade from his former employees? How does he form 322 00:17:32,880 --> 00:17:36,240 Speaker 4: as commander in chief his next defense administration? 323 00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:42,960 Speaker 10: Well, Tom, the fact remains is that you've got a 324 00:17:43,000 --> 00:17:47,200 Speaker 10: lot of people that object to President Trump in terms 325 00:17:47,359 --> 00:17:51,040 Speaker 10: of his character and what they believe to be his confidence. 326 00:17:51,080 --> 00:17:53,639 Speaker 10: But I'm sure that there is many who have not 327 00:17:54,119 --> 00:17:57,280 Speaker 10: stood up and said I would vote and I would 328 00:17:57,359 --> 00:18:00,760 Speaker 10: work for President Trump, because in many ways, the invective 329 00:18:00,760 --> 00:18:04,960 Speaker 10: aloned that would be it would be sent and directed 330 00:18:04,960 --> 00:18:08,959 Speaker 10: to those people just means that it's not worth saying 331 00:18:09,000 --> 00:18:11,080 Speaker 10: that now. So I suspect there are a lot of 332 00:18:11,080 --> 00:18:13,639 Speaker 10: good people out there that would work for President Trump. 333 00:18:14,600 --> 00:18:18,639 Speaker 10: I would remind your audience that when we were in uniform, 334 00:18:18,840 --> 00:18:22,000 Speaker 10: we were told to serve whoever was the president, and 335 00:18:22,040 --> 00:18:24,480 Speaker 10: I certainly hope out of the uniform that people will 336 00:18:24,520 --> 00:18:25,119 Speaker 10: do the same. 337 00:18:26,280 --> 00:18:29,680 Speaker 4: General Kimmit, you and I had a blistering conversation. I'm 338 00:18:29,680 --> 00:18:32,600 Speaker 4: going to say three years ago. I'm guessing on your 339 00:18:32,640 --> 00:18:37,080 Speaker 4: greatest fear, which is combat within cities. We've lived that 340 00:18:37,240 --> 00:18:41,640 Speaker 4: in Ukraine, no question about it. Maybe less so in Israel. 341 00:18:41,760 --> 00:18:45,359 Speaker 4: But the level of combat, the nature of combat on 342 00:18:45,400 --> 00:18:48,639 Speaker 4: the Lebanese border, how is that different than what we 343 00:18:48,760 --> 00:18:49,600 Speaker 4: see in Ukraine. 344 00:18:51,040 --> 00:18:54,080 Speaker 10: Well, I think it's more comparable to the difference between 345 00:18:54,119 --> 00:18:57,960 Speaker 10: what we see in Gaza. Gaza was city fighting, inch 346 00:18:58,040 --> 00:19:02,280 Speaker 10: binding in block by block, how by house. Lebanon is 347 00:19:02,359 --> 00:19:06,679 Speaker 10: more of a maneuver war, even though it may not 348 00:19:06,880 --> 00:19:10,560 Speaker 10: look that the Israeli Army is trying to take land 349 00:19:10,800 --> 00:19:17,320 Speaker 10: and it's trying to find underground subterranean missile platforms more 350 00:19:17,359 --> 00:19:21,400 Speaker 10: than they are trying to actually go against terrorists. Everybody 351 00:19:21,480 --> 00:19:27,480 Speaker 10: knows that Hezbola has lost its top five tiers of leadership, 352 00:19:28,080 --> 00:19:32,160 Speaker 10: so it's not really an extremely effective fighting force anymore 353 00:19:32,200 --> 00:19:36,040 Speaker 10: as a large organization. The great threat to Israel is 354 00:19:36,280 --> 00:19:40,000 Speaker 10: those missiles. Are those missiles they Israel wants to get 355 00:19:40,040 --> 00:19:44,440 Speaker 10: its people back into the north, back to their houses, 356 00:19:44,880 --> 00:19:48,320 Speaker 10: and they can't do that without taking the Hezbola rockets, 357 00:19:48,320 --> 00:19:50,600 Speaker 10: and for the most part those rockets and missiles are 358 00:19:50,680 --> 00:19:53,280 Speaker 10: south of the Latani and so it's more of a 359 00:19:53,400 --> 00:19:59,760 Speaker 10: maneuver sweep operation in side of Lebanon right now, where 360 00:20:00,080 --> 00:20:02,280 Speaker 10: as true city fighting inside of Gaza. 361 00:20:02,880 --> 00:20:05,840 Speaker 7: So general, with that background, how do you believe the 362 00:20:05,880 --> 00:20:11,359 Speaker 7: Israelis will retaliate too against Iran, because that's kind of 363 00:20:11,520 --> 00:20:13,439 Speaker 7: I think the next step for a lot of observers. 364 00:20:14,520 --> 00:20:18,359 Speaker 10: Sure, it's actually pretty clear on how the real question 365 00:20:18,480 --> 00:20:21,040 Speaker 10: is when I just got off of an Israeli station 366 00:20:21,119 --> 00:20:25,600 Speaker 10: where or having that conversation. They've taken off the target 367 00:20:25,680 --> 00:20:32,520 Speaker 10: menu oil installations and nuclear facilities, probably for many, many 368 00:20:32,560 --> 00:20:35,280 Speaker 10: good reasons as well as political reasons to take some 369 00:20:35,359 --> 00:20:39,520 Speaker 10: pressure off the Hairs campaign. But that menu still has 370 00:20:39,560 --> 00:20:41,879 Speaker 10: a whole lot of entrees on it. You can go 371 00:20:42,000 --> 00:20:47,200 Speaker 10: against infrastructure, you can go against military targets, you can 372 00:20:47,240 --> 00:20:52,280 Speaker 10: do inside of Iran. Continue what you've been doing inside 373 00:20:52,320 --> 00:20:56,600 Speaker 10: of Iran, which is targeted assassinations. The purpose in the 374 00:20:56,600 --> 00:21:00,399 Speaker 10: mind of Netanyahu is not to defeat or destroy, but 375 00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:05,119 Speaker 10: is to reestablish deterrence against Iran so that Iran knows 376 00:21:05,200 --> 00:21:08,879 Speaker 10: that if it ever does attack Israel again, the pain 377 00:21:08,960 --> 00:21:13,280 Speaker 10: that will be inflicted upon them, will be so harsh 378 00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:16,120 Speaker 10: as to deter them from doing that. That's what he's 379 00:21:16,160 --> 00:21:18,400 Speaker 10: trying to do. He's not trying to take land, he's 380 00:21:18,440 --> 00:21:21,159 Speaker 10: not trying to destroy, he's not trying to defeat. He 381 00:21:21,280 --> 00:21:24,640 Speaker 10: simply wants to set up a deterrence structure that had 382 00:21:24,720 --> 00:21:28,320 Speaker 10: held since seventy nine and had been breached in the 383 00:21:28,400 --> 00:21:29,000 Speaker 10: last year. 384 00:21:30,080 --> 00:21:32,040 Speaker 7: General, welby, have you on. We must ask you about 385 00:21:32,040 --> 00:21:34,880 Speaker 7: your thoughts on the Ukraine. Sometimes it gets a little 386 00:21:34,920 --> 00:21:38,159 Speaker 7: bit lost here in the headlines coming out of the 387 00:21:38,200 --> 00:21:42,280 Speaker 7: Middle East. Here it hasn't. How do you think this 388 00:21:42,320 --> 00:21:45,400 Speaker 7: plays out, General, over the next three months, six months, 389 00:21:45,480 --> 00:21:47,320 Speaker 7: twelve months? Is that the timeframe? 390 00:21:48,440 --> 00:21:50,640 Speaker 10: Well, two things. Let me do a little self promotion. 391 00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:54,280 Speaker 10: I'm doing a videotaping tomorrow for the Wall Street Journalist. 392 00:21:54,320 --> 00:21:56,200 Speaker 10: I have done a number of times on the state 393 00:21:56,240 --> 00:21:59,879 Speaker 10: of the war inside of Ukraine. Two years ago to 394 00:22:00,200 --> 00:22:02,760 Speaker 10: plus years ago. About three months into the war starting, 395 00:22:02,800 --> 00:22:05,159 Speaker 10: I wrote an article for Wall Street journal saying that 396 00:22:05,240 --> 00:22:07,679 Speaker 10: this war was going to turn into a bloody stalemate. 397 00:22:08,040 --> 00:22:10,760 Speaker 10: And that's exactly what's happened. There's not going to be 398 00:22:10,800 --> 00:22:13,080 Speaker 10: a whole lot of maneuver on the ground, there should 399 00:22:13,119 --> 00:22:17,280 Speaker 10: not be unlikely there will be any breakthroughs. And now 400 00:22:17,280 --> 00:22:20,440 Speaker 10: we're getting into the muddy season where there will be 401 00:22:20,560 --> 00:22:23,240 Speaker 10: very little maneuver as well. So I think we've got 402 00:22:23,320 --> 00:22:28,879 Speaker 10: to accept the fact that Russia and in general and 403 00:22:28,960 --> 00:22:32,119 Speaker 10: Putin in particular are making this a war of exhaustion 404 00:22:32,440 --> 00:22:36,119 Speaker 10: on Ukraine. Ukraine is running out of troops, Ukraine is 405 00:22:36,200 --> 00:22:40,240 Speaker 10: running out of equipment. Russia is not. So at some 406 00:22:40,359 --> 00:22:45,040 Speaker 10: point in time it would be wise for Zelensky to 407 00:22:45,040 --> 00:22:48,320 Speaker 10: start looking at what is negotiations options are, since the 408 00:22:48,359 --> 00:22:50,600 Speaker 10: military options seem to be coming to an end. 409 00:22:50,840 --> 00:22:53,400 Speaker 4: Jeneral Kimmitt, thank you so much for joining Bloomberg Savannahs 410 00:22:53,440 --> 00:22:56,160 Speaker 4: this morning. Mark Kimmitt there and look for his work 411 00:22:56,160 --> 00:23:02,440 Speaker 4: for the Wall Street Journal with the update on Ukraine. 412 00:23:04,760 --> 00:23:09,040 Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. Listen live each weekday 413 00:23:09,119 --> 00:23:12,639 Speaker 2: starting at seven am Eastern on Applecarplay and Android Auto 414 00:23:12,760 --> 00:23:15,479 Speaker 2: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also watch us 415 00:23:15,640 --> 00:23:19,560 Speaker 2: live every weekday on YouTube and always on the Bloomberg terminal. 416 00:23:19,680 --> 00:23:24,160 Speaker 4: Fluent from Los Angeles, BOEC Lisa Matteo here with the newspapers. 417 00:23:24,160 --> 00:23:24,880 Speaker 3: Lisa, what do you. 418 00:23:24,840 --> 00:23:28,680 Speaker 1: Have all right? More people been talking to chatbots nowadays, right, 419 00:23:28,720 --> 00:23:32,399 Speaker 1: so it's becoming like normal conversation. So the dilemma now 420 00:23:32,560 --> 00:23:36,879 Speaker 1: is AI etiquette. Should you be polite to your chatbot? So, 421 00:23:36,960 --> 00:23:39,439 Speaker 1: for example, if it helps you, do you say thank you? 422 00:23:39,880 --> 00:23:42,600 Speaker 1: If it doesn't, do you say not nice words to it? 423 00:23:43,320 --> 00:23:45,959 Speaker 1: Or is it just transactional and you say nothing? So 424 00:23:46,200 --> 00:23:48,879 Speaker 1: this is becoming a really big conversation on social media. 425 00:23:48,920 --> 00:23:51,720 Speaker 1: There's a debate whether bots are also keeping tabs on 426 00:23:51,800 --> 00:23:55,040 Speaker 1: who is nice to them, because research actually shows that 427 00:23:55,080 --> 00:23:57,600 Speaker 1: if you give an impolite prompt, it may lead to 428 00:23:57,720 --> 00:24:01,119 Speaker 1: increased bias. It may not even answer your question for 429 00:24:01,480 --> 00:24:04,040 Speaker 1: those of us, Yes, what's. 430 00:24:03,800 --> 00:24:04,480 Speaker 3: A chat bot? 431 00:24:04,600 --> 00:24:06,960 Speaker 1: So if you're if you're talking to let's say like chat, 432 00:24:07,000 --> 00:24:09,840 Speaker 1: GPT or something, or or if you're let's say online 433 00:24:09,880 --> 00:24:13,439 Speaker 1: with with anyone with one of those AI assistants that 434 00:24:13,560 --> 00:24:16,840 Speaker 1: you see somewhere, let's say your bank, Yeah you. 435 00:24:16,920 --> 00:24:18,920 Speaker 3: Can't follow, you'll help me here. What's the thing you hear? 436 00:24:19,280 --> 00:24:24,480 Speaker 4: You got an app on your phone a QR code. 437 00:24:24,560 --> 00:24:25,280 Speaker 7: No, that's different. 438 00:24:25,400 --> 00:24:28,640 Speaker 4: Now there's a scam where people are putting stickers over 439 00:24:28,680 --> 00:24:30,520 Speaker 4: them to take your money. 440 00:24:31,640 --> 00:24:34,680 Speaker 3: Trust chat, but you trust this new digital world. 441 00:24:35,320 --> 00:24:39,399 Speaker 1: Trust it's because I've put questions into chat GPT and 442 00:24:39,440 --> 00:24:42,000 Speaker 1: then I fact check it and then it's not right. 443 00:24:42,200 --> 00:24:47,400 Speaker 1: So it's worth CHPT like section three of the newspaper. 444 00:24:47,520 --> 00:24:50,919 Speaker 7: I don't know loves it really. Yeah, he's on the 445 00:24:50,920 --> 00:24:52,160 Speaker 7: cutting edge. 446 00:24:53,359 --> 00:24:54,960 Speaker 1: You have to do I have to You have to 447 00:24:55,000 --> 00:24:57,159 Speaker 1: do your research and double fact checked everything. 448 00:24:57,160 --> 00:25:01,439 Speaker 7: We should always be polite, okay, real and digital? Why not? 449 00:25:01,640 --> 00:25:01,880 Speaker 3: Yeah? 450 00:25:02,119 --> 00:25:03,760 Speaker 7: What's it downside? AI etiquette? 451 00:25:03,760 --> 00:25:08,600 Speaker 1: Who are Okay? Financial Times is saying Jane Street interns 452 00:25:08,640 --> 00:25:11,600 Speaker 1: make more than Cure Starmer and j Powell. Okay, so 453 00:25:11,840 --> 00:25:14,440 Speaker 1: they took a look at interns. Okay. This is some 454 00:25:14,480 --> 00:25:18,720 Speaker 1: of James Reed's current job postings. Quantitative research internship in 455 00:25:18,800 --> 00:25:22,800 Speaker 1: New York doesn't even require finance industry experience and annualize 456 00:25:22,800 --> 00:25:26,159 Speaker 1: based salary of two hundred and fifty thousand dollars. Also 457 00:25:26,200 --> 00:25:31,520 Speaker 1: adds for software engineering internship. Machine learning researcher summer gig 458 00:25:31,680 --> 00:25:34,040 Speaker 1: pays two hundred and fifty thousand dollars a year as well. 459 00:25:34,520 --> 00:25:37,080 Speaker 1: So they put they put into contexts. They say Prime 460 00:25:37,080 --> 00:25:40,040 Speaker 1: Minister Cure Starmer currently paid about two hundred and twenty 461 00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:43,720 Speaker 1: four thousand, j Powell approximately two hundred and three thousand. 462 00:25:44,119 --> 00:25:47,080 Speaker 1: So they're just kind of putting this into perspective. 463 00:25:46,560 --> 00:25:47,560 Speaker 3: Here, pandemic. 464 00:25:47,640 --> 00:25:50,000 Speaker 4: This is a huge deal, huge. I'm glad you did this, 465 00:25:50,119 --> 00:25:54,159 Speaker 4: Lisa post pandemic. There are wages to scriptancies like an 466 00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:59,920 Speaker 4: accounting It's comedic how under paid accountants are right now 467 00:26:00,480 --> 00:26:03,400 Speaker 4: and you're seeing this and they're readjusting to find where 468 00:26:03,400 --> 00:26:05,919 Speaker 4: the market is. That's what it takes to get some 469 00:26:06,000 --> 00:26:08,679 Speaker 4: of these rapiers. Somebody was complaining yesterday about what they 470 00:26:08,720 --> 00:26:09,879 Speaker 4: have to pay economists. 471 00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:12,040 Speaker 3: It's schools, that's the run rate. 472 00:26:12,560 --> 00:26:14,560 Speaker 4: You don't get these kids out of you know, name 473 00:26:14,600 --> 00:26:19,960 Speaker 4: the school, Chicago, Stanford, whatever, the starting is two hundred xx, you. 474 00:26:19,960 --> 00:26:22,479 Speaker 7: Know, twenty two thousand, five hundred. My first job at 475 00:26:22,480 --> 00:26:25,359 Speaker 7: payin Webber nineteen eighty so, and I live like a 476 00:26:25,440 --> 00:26:26,720 Speaker 7: king by the way in the city. 477 00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:29,040 Speaker 3: Well that's the thing. Can you live like a king 478 00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:30,520 Speaker 3: now in New York City? 479 00:26:30,520 --> 00:26:33,359 Speaker 4: One hundred and forty thousand right now, New York City, 480 00:26:33,840 --> 00:26:35,960 Speaker 4: single and you got addressed decently at work. 481 00:26:36,440 --> 00:26:38,399 Speaker 3: Those Patagonians are expect. 482 00:26:39,760 --> 00:26:40,040 Speaker 4: Again. 483 00:26:40,600 --> 00:26:42,880 Speaker 1: Okay, So Katie Kaminsky's. 484 00:26:42,359 --> 00:26:44,359 Speaker 3: Laughing, I see you up here, Katie. 485 00:26:44,600 --> 00:26:48,639 Speaker 4: Katie's Katie knows there's no one if simplex. 486 00:26:48,720 --> 00:26:50,320 Speaker 3: It's not wearing a patagonia. 487 00:26:50,600 --> 00:26:53,800 Speaker 1: Imagine there you go New York City restaurants, they have 488 00:26:53,840 --> 00:26:57,080 Speaker 1: this big challenge. Now, okay, gen Z doesn't know what 489 00:26:57,119 --> 00:26:59,360 Speaker 1: happy hour is this Okay. 490 00:26:59,160 --> 00:27:00,000 Speaker 9: It's very sa. 491 00:27:01,680 --> 00:27:05,560 Speaker 10: Are because I'm going to Rome, no visit. 492 00:27:05,640 --> 00:27:07,720 Speaker 1: The Post had an interview with the co founder of 493 00:27:07,760 --> 00:27:10,679 Speaker 1: Catch Hospitality, so he said, the pandemic changed everything. Right, 494 00:27:10,800 --> 00:27:13,160 Speaker 1: people used to the nine to five at five oh one, 495 00:27:13,320 --> 00:27:16,480 Speaker 1: yeah you're happy, right, Okay, but now the hours of change, 496 00:27:16,520 --> 00:27:18,440 Speaker 1: so people are not working the same hours, they're working 497 00:27:18,440 --> 00:27:21,520 Speaker 1: from home. Everything has changed. Gen Z is also drinking less, 498 00:27:21,880 --> 00:27:25,800 Speaker 1: so now these restaurant tours were paying exhorbed amounts of rent, 499 00:27:25,920 --> 00:27:29,439 Speaker 1: rent and their staff, so they're now dealing with this 500 00:27:29,520 --> 00:27:32,800 Speaker 1: so they have like non alcoholic menus. Some are deciding 501 00:27:32,840 --> 00:27:35,879 Speaker 1: to move to Dallas Miami, like it's it's changing the 502 00:27:35,880 --> 00:27:38,360 Speaker 1: whole landscape of how they have to do things. 503 00:27:38,520 --> 00:27:41,400 Speaker 7: You pay feeling why I got a happy hour dreams 504 00:27:41,440 --> 00:27:45,000 Speaker 7: before dinner last night in the city brass Monkey Downtown. 505 00:27:45,119 --> 00:27:48,800 Speaker 7: I haven't been there in one hundred years. Boom is like, 506 00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:49,440 Speaker 7: I never left. 507 00:27:49,520 --> 00:27:50,640 Speaker 1: But what's a happy hour price? 508 00:27:50,720 --> 00:27:50,880 Speaker 7: Now? 509 00:27:50,960 --> 00:27:51,399 Speaker 2: I don't know. 510 00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:53,440 Speaker 7: It's just kind of my card had a couple of 511 00:27:53,440 --> 00:27:55,840 Speaker 7: cocktails and it's dinner. I mean, I don't worry about it, 512 00:27:55,880 --> 00:27:58,399 Speaker 7: but it's you know, but there were people they did, 513 00:27:58,520 --> 00:27:59,960 Speaker 7: young young folks there popping in around. 514 00:28:00,119 --> 00:28:01,720 Speaker 1: Yes, but what they're starting to do is increase the 515 00:28:01,760 --> 00:28:03,280 Speaker 1: food price to compensate for that. 516 00:28:03,400 --> 00:28:07,080 Speaker 4: Yeah, that's but is Wednesday or Thursday? 517 00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:11,520 Speaker 3: Folks? Email it on YouTube? Let us know. Is Thursday 518 00:28:11,600 --> 00:28:15,560 Speaker 3: or Wednesday the new Friday? I think it's a really important. 519 00:28:15,080 --> 00:28:18,080 Speaker 7: Here's the thing. I'll noticed that the traffic down to 520 00:28:18,160 --> 00:28:21,000 Speaker 7: the Jersey Shore on Thursday afternoon is what it used 521 00:28:21,000 --> 00:28:23,960 Speaker 7: to be Friday. People are just not working Fridays Friday. Yes, 522 00:28:24,000 --> 00:28:25,000 Speaker 7: so Thursday's a new Friday. 523 00:28:25,960 --> 00:28:29,719 Speaker 1: Is one more okay. New report says US calorie intake 524 00:28:29,760 --> 00:28:33,199 Speaker 1: could reduce by trillions by twenty thirty because of the 525 00:28:33,240 --> 00:28:35,159 Speaker 1: popular weight loss drugs. So there was a study that 526 00:28:35,200 --> 00:28:39,080 Speaker 1: came out that showed this GLP drunk drugs like ozembic 527 00:28:39,120 --> 00:28:41,400 Speaker 1: we gov. They're starting to change how people eat eat. 528 00:28:41,440 --> 00:28:44,720 Speaker 1: People want to eat healthier options, less processed food. They 529 00:28:44,920 --> 00:28:47,960 Speaker 1: base this on grocery sales, but they're saying it's going 530 00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:51,320 Speaker 1: to change how grocers actually stock and lay out the 531 00:28:51,360 --> 00:28:54,760 Speaker 1: whole grocery store. So your store will start to look 532 00:28:54,760 --> 00:28:57,680 Speaker 1: different after a while as is, you know, as people 533 00:28:57,720 --> 00:29:00,920 Speaker 1: start to eat healthier eat less. So that's the whole 534 00:29:00,920 --> 00:29:03,960 Speaker 1: point of this survey is showing how the escape of 535 00:29:04,000 --> 00:29:07,040 Speaker 1: the landscape of the grocery store is changing. 536 00:29:06,920 --> 00:29:11,200 Speaker 4: A Lisa Tello, thank you so much the newspapers at today. 537 00:29:11,600 --> 00:29:12,320 Speaker 3: This is the. 538 00:29:12,240 --> 00:29:17,120 Speaker 2: Bloomberg Surveillance podcast, available on Apple, Spotify, and anywhere else 539 00:29:17,160 --> 00:29:20,880 Speaker 2: you get your podcasts. Listen live each weekday, seven to 540 00:29:20,960 --> 00:29:24,720 Speaker 2: ten am Eastern on Bloomberg dot com, the iHeartRadio app, 541 00:29:24,920 --> 00:29:27,920 Speaker 2: tune In, and the Bloomberg Business app. You can also 542 00:29:28,000 --> 00:29:31,360 Speaker 2: watch us live every weekday on YouTube and always on 543 00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:32,480 Speaker 2: the Bloomberg terminal.