Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast.
Speaker 1: It is time for Week seven. We can wait no longer.
Speaker 1: We have NFL games to get back to this weekend,
Speaker 1: and here to break them all down for us. Of course,
Speaker 1: as always, the Oracle himself, Matt Friedman joins me and
Speaker 1: today helping us break down the entire Week seven slater,
Speaker 1: or at least our favorite games of it, none other than
Speaker 1: Ben Solac of The Ringer. Ben, thank you so much
Speaker 1: for joining us.
Speaker 2: How are you doing today? Wow? I appreciate charm me falls.
Speaker 1: We appreciate you you coming on as well and sharing
Speaker 1: some time and knowledge with us here because we have
Speaker 1: some great games to get to. This is a really
Speaker 1: interesting slate in my opinion, is there so many games.
Speaker 1: It doesn't feel as yucky as last week slate did,
Speaker 1: where you were kind of holding your nose to make
Speaker 1: some of these bets like Panthers plus ten and a half, etc.
Speaker 1: But here we've got some decent spreads. We've got some
Speaker 1: pretty evenly matched games too to talk about. We're gonna
Speaker 1: start that off with you, Matt. The Ravens are six
Speaker 1: and a half points favorites versus the Browns in this
Speaker 1: divisional matchup here, and that number still six and a
Speaker 1: half here, it was six. It's been floating around in
Speaker 1: that six to six and a half range. Hasn't gone
Speaker 1: to seven all week. But are you going with the
Speaker 1: Browns or are you taking the Ravens and laying the
Speaker 1: points at home?
Speaker 3: Very much on the Ravens at this point, Kevin Stefanski
Speaker 3: is two and eleven against the spread in division I
Speaker 3: mean horrible against people who know him, and then specifically
Speaker 3: against John Harbaugh. Zero to four against the spread for
Speaker 3: Kevin Stefanski, So the historical trends don't look good for
Speaker 3: him there, and I mean really it comes down for
Speaker 3: me this Ravens rush offense against the Browns run defense.
Speaker 3: The Ravens have a top three run offense in rush EPOA, EPOA,
Speaker 3: rush DVOA, and the Browns are bottom three in both
Speaker 3: of those metrics. And in our Fantasy pros you know,
Speaker 3: power rankings. The Ravens, especially now they have left tackled
Speaker 3: Ronnie Stanley healthy, they have been the eighth best offensive
Speaker 3: line and we have the Browns with the eighth word
Speaker 3: defensive line. Number one running back JK. Dobbins is uncertain,
Speaker 3: but I really don't think that matters all that much.
Speaker 3: Like backup running back Kenyan Drake looked pretty good last week.
Speaker 3: They have Justice Hill returning, so I think they will
Speaker 3: be fine in the backfield. And then, of course, like
Speaker 3: Lamar Jackson is the ultimate cheat code as the running quarterback.
Speaker 3: So the Ravens bat against the run, I mean, sorry,
Speaker 3: the Browns bad against the run anyway, and then you
Speaker 3: know they're significantly injured on that side of the ball
Speaker 3: to no Chase Wino, which Steven Weatherly, no Anthony Walker,
Speaker 3: Jadevian Clowney might be out, Dion Jones he might be
Speaker 3: able to return for this game, but maybe not, and
Speaker 3: if he does, it's still his first game within a
Speaker 3: new defense, so I don't think it looks good for them.
Speaker 3: And if a home team can control the clock with
Speaker 3: the ground game, it has the ability to pile on
Speaker 3: the points. So I think that's what the Ravens are
Speaker 3: gonna do.
Speaker 1: I'm completely with you on this one, but Ben, what
Speaker 1: do you think here? Any dissension from that's take?
Speaker 4: No?
Speaker 2: I like Ravens.
Speaker 4: I'm worried about mar Andrews not practicing. He missed the
Speaker 4: second straight practice this week, and I think the Ravens
Speaker 4: are already really fragile build in terms of weapons generally
Speaker 4: no JK. Dobbins probably this week, and then know Andrews
Speaker 4: and without Rashawn Bateman, it's like, Okay, this is just
Speaker 4: a very bad offense in terms of the non Lamark pieces.
Speaker 4: But the proof of the put ins in the een
Speaker 4: with the running game. And yeah, the Browns rush defense
Speaker 4: is not just the worst in the league, but EPA
Speaker 4: for play it's twice as bad as the thirtieth defense.
Speaker 4: So it's like multiple standard deviations worse than your average
Speaker 4: run defense in the league. And so the Ravens scheme
Speaker 4: should make this happen. And you also like, I think
Speaker 4: the Ravens. If you like the Ravens, you like them
Speaker 4: on the line now because they tend to be really
Speaker 4: good through the first three quarters. Then get things away late.
Speaker 4: If you like the Browns, wait, the Raves are gonna
Speaker 4: get a lead and then just hit it live and
Speaker 4: then you can kind of catch a better number when
Speaker 4: the Ravens inevitably failed or in the fourth quarter.
Speaker 3: Yeah, and I'm a little bit hopeful that Rashaan Bateman
Speaker 3: will play in this game, because he did practice on
Speaker 3: a limited basis on Wednesday, so better than the dnps
Speaker 3: that we had last week. So you know, continue to
Speaker 3: monitor him throughout the week because at least if Mark
Speaker 3: Andrews is out, if Bateman is in, that helps at least,
Speaker 3: you know, kind of calm the nerves.
Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm hopeful for Bateman to play as well. I
Speaker 1: think he will. If he's already practicing. I think they're gonna,
Speaker 1: you know, nudge him a little bit and say, hey,
Speaker 1: can you give it a go, especially if Mark's banged up.
Speaker 1: This could be a really big game for him if
Speaker 1: he comes back for it. But another really big game
Speaker 1: on the docket this week, the Jets and the Broncos
Speaker 1: here and kuys. I cannot believe it. Four and two
Speaker 1: are the New York Jets right now. If they win
Speaker 1: this game, I'm officially on the bandwagon of this team
Speaker 1: can make the playoffs. You look at that second half schedule.
Speaker 1: All they need to do is pick off one of
Speaker 1: the next three, because they got the Broncos, then the Patriots,
Speaker 1: and then the Bills. If they can pick this game off,
Speaker 1: you can go into your bye week at five and three,
Speaker 1: come back out on the other side with an easy
Speaker 1: second half. Schedule. The Bills are the only team with
Speaker 1: a winning record on it, I think right now. But
Speaker 1: this is also the spot now people are starting to
Speaker 1: say the same thing, and this is where the Jets
Speaker 1: like to drink the kool aid and then come out
Speaker 1: with just an absolutely abysmal performance against a team that
Speaker 1: they should be beating. And I feel like that's the
Speaker 1: Broncos right now. This game open two and a half
Speaker 1: or three, depending on your shot. But then Monday Night
Speaker 1: happened and the Broncos have been bet all the way
Speaker 1: down to just a one point favorite. Right now, then
Speaker 1: where are you going in this one? Is it Broncos country?
Speaker 1: Let's ride?
Speaker 4: No, it never has been, inever will be. So I
Speaker 4: like the Jets in this one. I liked him at two,
Speaker 4: I still like him at one. I think that this
Speaker 4: is I may just be about to pick them, especially
Speaker 4: with the uncertainty of quarterback, which I.
Speaker 2: Jokingly said of the pre show. I definitely like it
Speaker 2: if Russ is playing.
Speaker 4: I'm not sure I like it if the backup's playing.
Speaker 4: But it's a little bit true if if Brett Rippin
Speaker 4: plays this game. Because Russ is questionable coming in, there's
Speaker 4: a chance that this offense looks better because Russ has
Speaker 4: been the major limiting factor in this offense.
Speaker 2: There's no choice about them.
Speaker 4: There's other problems, but Russ is if you're ranking the factors,
Speaker 4: Russ has been number one.
Speaker 2: And so you do you know, like.
Speaker 4: You're like, all right, I get to fade a backup quarterback.
Speaker 4: Oh maybe not like it's a weird situation for Denver.
Speaker 4: But what the Jets do that I like is they
Speaker 4: run the football extremely well. They've had a carousel on
Speaker 4: the offensive line yet still somehow scraped together in a
Speaker 4: good unit.
Speaker 2: The third and rush.
Speaker 4: ePaper player over the last three weeks, Reese Hall was
Speaker 4: like all that in a bag of chips.
Speaker 2: And they have this two running back set with Mike.
Speaker 2: Part of it works really well for them.
Speaker 4: It's tough to defend because multiple guys who can take
Speaker 4: a handoff, you can go in jet motion. They're on
Speaker 4: the reverses, they're on the gadget plays. It's a nice
Speaker 4: little offense that Mike Belfore has going. And then they
Speaker 4: have the weapons to win the passing game if they
Speaker 4: need to. They haven't really used Zach Wilson for the
Speaker 4: last couple weeks, and that's probably better for where Zach
Speaker 4: is in his development. But they have Garrett Wilson, and
Speaker 4: they have Elijah Moore assuming he's happy and wants to
Speaker 4: play football.
Speaker 2: They have Corey Davis. They can win on their one
Speaker 2: on one.
Speaker 4: So this offense has a formula that works that I
Speaker 4: tend to trust enough getting points against the Denver team
Speaker 4: that to me isn't going to score more than like
Speaker 4: sixteen seventeen. Denver defense really really really good. So if
Speaker 4: you're missing how there it is. If you're missing this game,
Speaker 4: you're missing it on I think like defensive stops on
Speaker 4: turnovers on short fields for the Broncos because this Jets
Speaker 4: defensive line, it's gonna read some havoc.
Speaker 2: No matter who's playing quarterback back there. So I like
Speaker 2: it a plus money. It's a weird one though, So
Speaker 2: if you want to stay.
Speaker 1: Away and I'm playing you, I'm finally in. I bet
Speaker 1: them last week against the Packers beas that was more
Speaker 1: so a take on the Packers just last couple.
Speaker 2: Of weeks w on seven point lines. Very beautiful.
Speaker 1: Yeah, you can't keep giving that to us. I'm gonna
Speaker 1: keep taking it. But now this one, this is that
Speaker 1: spot where I'm like Oh, they're gonna come out and
Speaker 1: break my heart now. But no, I'm believing I'm ready
Speaker 1: to get hurt again by this team. Matt, what about you?
Speaker 1: Are you riding with the Jets or are you going
Speaker 1: with Russell Wilson and the Broncos.
Speaker 3: Sadly, very sadly, I bet the Broncos on the look Ahead.
Speaker 3: Oh no, I hate myself. I just absolutely hate myself.
Speaker 3: I for like, and now I saw that that commercial,
Speaker 3: the second commercial with the Danger Witch, and I just
Speaker 3: can't for the rest of the year. I am not
Speaker 3: betting on Russell Wilson. I'm just I'm totally done, and
Speaker 3: I might flip where I just start betting against him, uh,
Speaker 3: depending on the setup. But this defense with the Jets,
Speaker 3: I'm really impressed with them. You know, I think they've
Speaker 3: got two really good cover corners. Sauce Gardner has looked
Speaker 3: as good as we've seen any quarterback, like shades of
Speaker 3: like Marshawn Lattimore's rookie season, and honestly maybe even better
Speaker 3: than that, Like he has been amazing. So I'm impressed
Speaker 3: with the defense. And it has been said like that
Speaker 3: running game has really gotten going for the Jets, whose
Speaker 3: offensive line woes, they've managed to bandage up pretty nicely.
Speaker 3: So for me, if I hadn't bet, it would probably
Speaker 3: be a stay away. But yeah, I mean I'm not.
Speaker 3: I'm very much not on the Broncos at this point.
Speaker 1: You know, talking about that offensive line real quick, Elijah
Speaker 1: Vera Tucker is having one of the best seasons that
Speaker 1: we've seen out of alignment in a long time. Like that,
Speaker 1: they have moved that guy for as much of the
Speaker 1: injury woes as Mackay Beckton has had, they have been
Speaker 1: able to move Vera Tucker. Both guard spots now play
Speaker 1: right tackle. He's playing everywhere on this line. It's insane.
Speaker 3: It's like Larry Allen, like back in the day with
Speaker 3: the Cowboys, which of course I'm gonna bring it back
Speaker 3: to the Cowboys, the nineties Cowboys with an offensive line,
Speaker 3: but like I mean, Larry Allen was like the dude
Speaker 3: who could play all over that offensive line, and like
Speaker 3: Elijah Vera Tucker, like it feels like he's got that capability.
Speaker 3: Like I know he's in theory a guard, but I
Speaker 3: think he actually has some like real tackle potential.
Speaker 1: Well, the Jets need all the help that they can
Speaker 1: get right now. As the line still gets healthy and
Speaker 1: by the way, the danger Witch commercial. Have you seen
Speaker 1: the video of it where someone put Russ and his
Speaker 1: audio over the Joker in the scene where he crashes
Speaker 1: the party in the dark night. It fits way too perfectly.
Speaker 2: I have I can't remember.
Speaker 1: It's really unsettling because you're like, oh, this, this fits
Speaker 1: like he could have been the Joker in this movie easily.
Speaker 1: That's sad, but hey, you know, good news for the Broncos.
Speaker 1: At least it's not like you're tied up to a
Speaker 1: massive contract and blew a tremendous amount of draft capital
Speaker 1: to bring him in, so you're you're able to move
Speaker 1: on without much pain there. As we move on to
Speaker 1: the next game on the slate here, speaking of your Cowboys, Matt,
Speaker 1: the Lions come to town and this poor Lions team, man,
Speaker 1: they can't catch a break. One of the best offenses
Speaker 1: in football right now. The defense is terrible. They're getting
Speaker 1: seven here versus the Cowboys and they still have a
Speaker 1: tremendously awful record.
Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, Tom, you know, it was the bane
Speaker 3: of my existence last year to bet against my Cowboys,
Speaker 3: like I wouldn't be able to celebrate them winning because
Speaker 3: I would just be losing money as it was happening.
Speaker 3: But I'm going back to it. I'm betting against the
Speaker 3: Cowboys in the spot, and it's I mean, I'm impressed
Speaker 3: with the Lions, even though they are losing games and
Speaker 3: their defense has been absolutely horrible. On offense, they've been
Speaker 3: good and you know, Dan Campbell five and one against
Speaker 3: the spread versus teams with winning records at the time
Speaker 3: of the game, and you know, just like cover heroes,
Speaker 3: the Lions have been in the Dan Campbell era. So
Speaker 3: I do like them in this spot. I do like
Speaker 3: the way they match up. I like that they're coming
Speaker 3: off of the buy so they've had time to prepare,
Speaker 3: and I think it's for me this offensive line against
Speaker 3: the Cowboys defensive line. Like, Okay, last year, I thought
Speaker 3: the Cowboys defense was fraudulent. They had a really unstable
Speaker 3: league high twenty six interceptions like that was clearly not
Speaker 3: something that could be sustained year over year, and they
Speaker 3: allowed the twelfth most yards per play. I thought that's
Speaker 3: the offense, sorry, the defense that they really were. But
Speaker 3: I mean this year they've been They've been legitimate, right, like,
Speaker 3: not as opportunistic, but number one in sacks, number two
Speaker 3: in quarterback hits, number three in yards per play allowed,
Speaker 3: Like they've got a really strong group of edge rushers, Parsons,
Speaker 3: DeMarcus Lawrence, Doran's armstrong, Dante Fowler, like Faler is actually
Speaker 3: like he was a bus back in the day now
Speaker 3: he actually on this defensive line is looking really good.
Speaker 3: The Cowboys number one and adjusted sack rate. But that
Speaker 3: Lions offensive line, if it's not the best in the league,
Speaker 3: I think it's top three. I personally have it ranked
Speaker 3: as the number one offensive line. Like they are number
Speaker 3: one in adjusted ZACH rate. They are doing a phenomenal
Speaker 3: job of protecting Jared Goff to where he has actually
Speaker 3: looked like a competent quarterback once again this year. And
Speaker 3: then in terms of the running game, like they've got
Speaker 3: it their top five in rush EPA, rush DVOA, adjusted lineyards,
Speaker 3: and the Cowboys are outside of the top ten and
Speaker 3: defensively in all of those metrics. So I think it's
Speaker 3: a game where the Lions are going to be able
Speaker 3: to run the ball against the Cowboys. They're going to
Speaker 3: be able to protect Jared Goff or protect him more
Speaker 3: than the typical offensive line has been able to do
Speaker 3: when facing the Cowboys, and I think that means seven
Speaker 3: points is too much.
Speaker 1: Yeah, this offense feels like they can move the football.
Speaker 1: As for the Lions, it's the defense that's giving you problems.
Speaker 1: And also, Dak Prescott might be back for this Ben,
Speaker 1: what do you think about it?
Speaker 4: Yeah, Prescott's playing. I think seven is the correct line.
Speaker 4: And then Prescott said today that he's going to start,
Speaker 4: And usually when players say they're going to start, like,
Speaker 4: all right, that's probably true.
Speaker 2: There's a chance that's not, but the starting quarterback is
Speaker 2: all right.
Speaker 4: The thing for me is if I like Lions plus seven,
Speaker 4: which I do. I implied like the over, and it's been
Speaker 4: a weirdier for overs.
Speaker 2: It's been tough as a man who likes the bet overs.
Speaker 4: I understand forty and a half is one of the
Speaker 4: bigger numbers are going to see on the lines this week.
Speaker 4: But if this game stays within seven, it's because the
Speaker 4: Lions offense is able to keep pace. We expect this
Speaker 4: defense to give up points no matter what, right, And
Speaker 4: so I do like Lions plus seven. I like being
Speaker 4: able to build it into the over as well, and
Speaker 4: see if I can, like teaze down the line and
Speaker 4: get a little bit more space in that just because
Speaker 4: Detroit's offense can be much more volatile than it appears because.
Speaker 2: Of how often they go for it on fourth down, right.
Speaker 4: So they're putting out yards or play, they're putting out
Speaker 4: yards per drive.
Speaker 2: It look like they're going to cover.
Speaker 4: And then in terms of they have like no points
Speaker 4: against the Patriots because they over five on fourth downs, right,
Speaker 4: So that aggression makes them cover heroes, like Matt was saying,
Speaker 4: but sometimes it can kill you. And so if we're
Speaker 4: expecting that Lion's offense to keep it close, and I
Speaker 4: think we're looking at like a fifty plus point total.
Speaker 4: Both these teams can run it well, but they run
Speaker 4: it with a good pace of play and the Gopher
Speaker 4: explosives to go over play action pass, so you're not
Speaker 4: gonna see the time run off the clock too quickly.
Speaker 2: I like the Lions. I also like the over if
Speaker 2: you if you're on the Lions side.
Speaker 1: I think that makes a lot. I mean, you have
Speaker 1: a fantastic offense and an atrocious defense. That's a recipe
Speaker 1: for overs right there, especially in a game like this.
Speaker 1: Your biggest hope is that the Cowboys defense can't totally
Speaker 1: stifle the Lions and they get you at least a
Speaker 1: little bit towards that over. But I think that's pretty reasonable.
Speaker 4: Yeah, it's going to be interesting to see what this
Speaker 4: offense look like looks like with Dak back because they
Speaker 4: did so many good, responsible, smart offensive team building things.
Speaker 2: With rush, early down, play action, you're going to rot
Speaker 2: to your backs.
Speaker 4: When they play Prescott, they tend to be like, go
Speaker 4: be an adult, and they don't do any of this helpful.
Speaker 2: Stuff, and it would be frustrating if that's the case. Again.
Speaker 1: Yeah, the play calling definitely takes a step back there.
Speaker 1: And speaking of teams taking a step back, the Chicago
Speaker 1: Bears have taken a step back into about nineteen forty
Speaker 1: three when it comes to the way that they play
Speaker 1: offense this season. They're going up against the Patriots this
Speaker 1: week on Monday Night because we just can't get enough
Speaker 1: of these great primetime matchups.
Speaker 3: Here.
Speaker 1: The total in this game, Ben is thirty nine and
Speaker 1: a half. Right now, that's so astronomically low. You can't
Speaker 1: really bet the under. Are you looking at the over?
Speaker 2: I'm betting the under. No, I'm absolutely betting out there.
Speaker 4: Bill Belichick spent about seven minutes during its press conference
Speaker 4: talking about how good the Bears are, which.
Speaker 1: Bill Belichick's to kiss of death.
Speaker 4: When Bill Belichick does that, it means you're you're going
Speaker 4: to total eighty yards. It means you're gonna have a horrible,
Speaker 4: horrible day. Bill's really good at talking positively about teams
Speaker 4: that he is confident he is a beat on. And
Speaker 4: the thing about the Bears, and the Bears are so
Speaker 4: siloed on offense. This Belichick's better than anybody else for
Speaker 4: as long as he's been a coach. You're taking away
Speaker 4: with you do best. And the Bears are about two
Speaker 4: pitches right. The Bears have our split zone outside of
Speaker 4: on running game, our boot action off of it all,
Speaker 4: they can't drop back, they can't run anything else right,
Speaker 4: and they have no variety.
Speaker 2: In the running game. They have to live in that world.
Speaker 4: So yeah, Justin Field's gonna get one a couple scrambles, He's.
Speaker 2: Gonna rip off a couple of a couple of big
Speaker 2: chunks on third downs.
Speaker 4: But you guys, a great athlete other than that, Like,
Speaker 4: this isn't gonna be like the Vikings game where the
Speaker 4: Bears walk out in the second in the second half,
Speaker 4: and they were like, you know, yeah, run our stuff,
Speaker 4: and all of a sudden they put twenty points on
Speaker 4: the board. Because the Vikings just have simple defense. No
Speaker 4: Belichick takes way what you do well. So I think
Speaker 4: the Bears are gonna have a really tough time.
Speaker 2: Moving the ball on offense.
Speaker 4: And then when the Patriots have the ball, they're second
Speaker 4: in the league right now in terms of pace per
Speaker 4: play on the slow side. The Titans are the slowest
Speaker 4: in terms of the second suscember play, and then the Patriots.
Speaker 2: Are right there with Bailey Zappi at quarterback.
Speaker 4: They've been more under centered, they've been more run oriented,
Speaker 4: and then they go to their play ash and pass.
Speaker 4: The only way they get explosives if it is if
Speaker 4: it's your oars after the catch, And this Matt Eberflutz
Speaker 4: defense is all about.
Speaker 2: Play drop zone, play on top of guys, don't wait
Speaker 2: guys back for the.
Speaker 4: Catch, hustle up, rally up, and tackle. So you're gonna
Speaker 4: see the Patriots struggle to get explosives. They're gonna run,
Speaker 4: they're gonna eat a ton o'clock, and I think they're
Speaker 4: gonna get on top of the Bears. And the Bears
Speaker 4: are gonna struggle score. So do I love betting a
Speaker 4: total under when it starts with a three? No?
Speaker 2: Do I see a way that either one of these
Speaker 2: teams gets over twenty?
Speaker 3: No?
Speaker 4: I'm in on a nice prime time thirteen to sixteen
Speaker 4: stinker and I'm looking.
Speaker 2: Forward to it.
Speaker 1: Oh that's a thousand percent. What's about to happen in
Speaker 1: this game? You just know, because for some reason we
Speaker 1: were insistent upon putting the absolute trash of the NFL
Speaker 1: in prime time here, Matt, do you have any different
Speaker 1: dissenting opinion on that one?
Speaker 3: I mean, I have this projected pretty close to the total.
Speaker 3: It's slightly to the over, but like I promise you,
Speaker 3: I'm not betting the over in this spot. I'm probably
Speaker 3: staying away from the total. But you know what been
Speaker 3: said there. I think the number you gave was like
Speaker 3: sixteen to thirteen. Like that does make me think, Like
Speaker 3: it's not that I want to bet on the Bears, right,
Speaker 3: but I do think that if you are to bet
Speaker 3: on the side, eight points is a lot in exactly, yeah,
Speaker 3: and a game with a low total and you know,
Speaker 3: backup quarterback running oriented teams, you know, like eight, I
Speaker 3: am on, I'm on the Bears in that spot.
Speaker 1: I mean, it makes sense in order for I don't
Speaker 1: like laying a ton of points with a team I'm
Speaker 1: not confident in scoring, and I'm really not confident in
Speaker 1: the Patriots getting the eight points they need to cover
Speaker 1: in this game. This could end six nothing pretty easily here.
Speaker 1: That's the only dilemma that I'd have. It's the same
Speaker 1: reason why I didn't like the Packers when they were
Speaker 1: laying like the ten and a half numbers, because you
Speaker 1: just can't trust the offense. So I definitely see where
Speaker 1: you're going here. This is a stay away from me
Speaker 1: until Monday night, when I bet into the closing line
Speaker 1: like an idiot, because I just want to have some
Speaker 1: reasonally care about this game. But I'll bet the under
Speaker 1: in that one so I don't have to root for
Speaker 1: these terrible offenses. But Matt, the Giants and the Jaguars.
Speaker 1: Speaking of terrible, yeah, really, for the longest time, that's
Speaker 1: what these two teams were. And yet all of a sudden,
Speaker 1: here we are. The Jags. Yeah, they've slid a couple
Speaker 1: of weeks now after that hot start, But the Giants,
Speaker 1: they seem legit. Five and one here they're getting three
Speaker 1: points they head down to Jacksonville. Are you going with
Speaker 1: Big Blue?
Speaker 3: Yeah?
Speaker 2: I was.
Speaker 1: By the way, now the official name of Matt Dable
Speaker 1: of Brian Dable.
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's that's fair well earned, by the way. Yeah,
Speaker 3: I have a little bit of a sickness whenever Daniel
Speaker 3: Jones is a road underdog, I bet on him. You know,
Speaker 3: that's just it's something, it's something that I do. He's
Speaker 3: thirteen and six against the spread on the road, twenty
Speaker 3: one and thirteen as an underdog, twelve and four against
Speaker 3: the spread as a road underdog. There's just like something
Speaker 3: about the style of play. I don't know. I haven't
Speaker 3: been able to like identify why it is that he
Speaker 3: does well in the spot, but historically he has done well,
Speaker 3: and I like the matchup, So you're not gonna need
Speaker 3: to twist my arm too much for betting into this.
Speaker 3: It's Saquon Barkley against the Jags rush defense. That's when
Speaker 3: it comes out to, like, we all know what the
Speaker 3: Giants want to do in this game. They want to
Speaker 3: run the ball, and they run more than they pass
Speaker 3: a fifty two percent rush rate. You know, it's hard
Speaker 3: to do that in today's NFL, But that's what you
Speaker 3: do when you have Daniel Jones a quarterback and squ
Speaker 3: as your running back. He leads the league with one
Speaker 3: hundred and nineteen carries. And I think this backfield, you know,
Speaker 3: as reliant as it is on Barkley, like it's a
Speaker 3: top three backfield because he's just playing at an elite
Speaker 3: level right now. And I think he has a significant
Speaker 3: edge over the Jags defensive line in the line backing unit.
Speaker 3: And as mediocre as the Giants have been on offense,
Speaker 3: you know, like number eighteen in success rate, number twenty
Speaker 3: one in yards per play, they've actually been pretty good
Speaker 3: running the ball. They're number nine in rush EPA per
Speaker 3: play in their run offense. The Jags run defense has
Speaker 3: just been mediocre, number seventeen in rush EPA. So I
Speaker 3: see this as leaning towards the Giants and how they
Speaker 3: want to play the game. And Barkley, he has a
Speaker 3: shoulder injury, but he practiced on Wednesday, So he's playing
Speaker 3: Andrew Thomas and with an elbow injury, but he practiced.
Speaker 3: He's playing, same with John Feliciano. So those guys are
Speaker 3: dealing with injuries, but they're all gonna play. And if
Speaker 3: we look at the quarterbacks in this game, Like, Okay,
Speaker 3: Daniel Jones, I just I don't think he's that good.
Speaker 3: That said, is there really, at this stage of their
Speaker 3: careers that much of a difference between Daniel Jones and
Speaker 3: Trevor Lawrence? Like I know that there is, but like,
Speaker 3: statistically there's really not. Like they are right next to
Speaker 3: each other. They're eleven and twelve and composite EPA and
Speaker 3: completion percentage over expectation their numbers thirteen and fourteen in
Speaker 3: ESPN QBR. Like they're comparable enough within the confines of
Speaker 3: what they're supposed to do within their offenses. And I
Speaker 3: don't see the Jags as having a home field advantage
Speaker 3: of three points. I think these two teams are pretty even.
Speaker 3: So I'm going with the Giants because I think Barkley
Speaker 3: is going to be able to run effectively enough to
Speaker 3: give them a good chance to cover Ben.
Speaker 1: Any thoughts here, Yeah, I.
Speaker 4: Love it if I know fully thought. Dacossi isn't point
Speaker 4: bully thought. Kossi is the nose for the Jaguars. He
Speaker 4: is out starting at the Eagles game, where I think
Speaker 4: I can cuss, and then the moment he went out
Speaker 4: Eagles started running the ball with im community and then
Speaker 4: they played Houston the next week. He's out Texans are
Speaker 4: running the football then to get the Colts to the
Speaker 4: Colstone count because they were playing Deon Jackson and their
Speaker 4: tire lions terrible. They have to throw the ball fifty
Speaker 4: eight times, but find a posse's he only knows they
Speaker 4: got in that front and Mike Caldos the DC there,
Speaker 4: he came from Tampa. When they go run defense, they
Speaker 4: need to nose. They need a vitavea and they didn't
Speaker 4: have it over the last few weeks. They're hoping to
Speaker 4: get fought to Possi back for this game. I'm not
Speaker 4: sure they do if they don't. I love the spot
Speaker 4: for Barkleys rushing totals, and I like the spot for
Speaker 4: the Giants because that's that's the one matchup they have
Speaker 4: against the Jags. It's a weird line.
Speaker 2: See a five to one team against the two and
Speaker 2: four team, and the two and four team is favorite.
Speaker 4: Dvoa had a great line where the Giants have been
Speaker 4: trailing more in terms of game cloth than any team
Speaker 4: is a winning record, and the Jaguars have been winning
Speaker 4: more in terms of game clock than any team of
Speaker 4: a losing record, so it's a topsy turvy, upside down
Speaker 4: start of the game.
Speaker 2: But if there's no fun of COSSE, I do.
Speaker 4: Like that Giant side in terms of the rushing totals overall, though,
Speaker 4: I took Daniel Jones rushing yards when it opened.
Speaker 2: I took a big and I expected to hit it
Speaker 2: thirty four and a half.
Speaker 4: Jones always runs, but especially runs when you get mancard,
Speaker 4: especially once when you get blitz.
Speaker 2: That's what these Jag Wars want to do. They're above
Speaker 2: average and blitz rate.
Speaker 4: The they're heavy man coverage rate, and when you get
Speaker 4: that sort of a look, it gives the quarterback lanes
Speaker 4: to escape and get a field, and so I like
Speaker 4: the I like the running offense for the Giants in
Speaker 4: this game a lot. I wouldn't feel I don't feel
Speaker 4: too strong about Giants plus three, but there's no flaught
Speaker 4: to COOSTI I think it's the right side.
Speaker 1: Demetrius Harvey on Twitter. He's a reporter Jags reporter for
Speaker 1: Jacks dot Com. He says head coach Doug Peterson says
Speaker 1: that fully fought a Cosi day to day in quotes,
Speaker 1: but he'll be at practice today which was yesterday and
Speaker 1: he was hopeful to have him back this week. And
Speaker 1: also here an interesting stat Jags winning percentage when Photocosi
Speaker 1: plays a whole game zero point six sixty seven. His
Speaker 1: winning percentage when they're winning percentage when he doesn't zero.
Speaker 3: So I imagine he actually plays in this game because
Speaker 3: he did get a limited practice on Wednesday and Thursday.
Speaker 1: That's that's typically a good sign there, guys, real quick,
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Speaker 1: So now moving on here to the next game that
Speaker 1: you've got up been the Seahawks and the Chargers, and
Speaker 1: this is another one. You got some good offenses here,
Speaker 1: and the Chargers defense has been especially disappointing for me
Speaker 1: so far this season. I don't feel like they're living
Speaker 1: up to what they were supposed to be. But then again,
Speaker 1: this entire Chargers unit not really doing that right now?
Speaker 1: What are you thinking in this game?
Speaker 4: Yeah, And that's the thing is is I preseason Chargers
Speaker 4: pass defense begainst the Seahawks passing offense. Holy smokes, And
Speaker 4: now we've seen the Seahawks passing offense not just succeed.
Speaker 2: But be relatively batch up proof.
Speaker 4: Obviously not the strongest game that they're coming offense the Cardinals,
Speaker 4: but they never move the football.
Speaker 2: It's just the inability to get into the end zone.
Speaker 2: We just worries.
Speaker 4: So I you're betting a total at at fifty and
Speaker 4: a half, I do like the over you're getting below
Speaker 4: that key number of fifty one.
Speaker 3: No j C.
Speaker 2: Jackson.
Speaker 4: The Chargers are changing and they're kind of the NFP
Speaker 4: more right now. On the defense side of the ball.
Speaker 4: Certainly know Joey Bosa will bring pressure to those rookie
Speaker 4: tackles have been playing. So all still got it with
Speaker 4: Kolil Mack. But this Chargers defense to me is a
Speaker 4: little bit Swiss Cheez. There's some spots in it that
Speaker 4: we didn't expect there to be, Certainly in the outside
Speaker 4: receiver game, which is where it d came back.
Speaker 2: Cap and Tyl Lockett are going to be at their strongest.
Speaker 4: On the other side of the ball, the teams that
Speaker 4: score against the Seahawks are the teams that can run,
Speaker 4: and we obviously you know, usually trust that Cardinals runing game,
Speaker 4: but that Cardinals running game is very like college inspired.
Speaker 4: When teams get heavy with multiple tight ends on the field,
Speaker 4: they get under center and they run the ball. In
Speaker 4: terms of pro styles, they tend to have success against
Speaker 4: the Seahawks rushing defense. That wasn't the Chargers to start
Speaker 4: the year, but recently they've been a lot better. They're
Speaker 4: getting the ball to Austin Academy more. They're not screwing
Speaker 4: around as much as like the full back run wide
Speaker 4: zone and pretend with the San.
Speaker 2: Francisco forty nine ers thing. They're running more power.
Speaker 4: They're actually pulling guys, which is what they're suited to do.
Speaker 4: So since V three they've been ninth and rush EPA
Speaker 4: for play on offense, which we would not have expected
Speaker 4: given how they looked in the start of the season.
Speaker 4: They were gone awful. They're taking away to Sony reps,
Speaker 4: have got a little bit better on the offensive line.
Speaker 4: They're calling better plays, and they're running the ball better,
Speaker 4: so they're gonna be able to stay ahead of the sticks,
Speaker 4: not get stuck in the third and lungs that they
Speaker 4: can't deal with right now, and that's when I think
Speaker 4: allow them to push the ball down the field.
Speaker 2: So I like fifty and a half as a total.
Speaker 4: I think you can get over that with two offenses
Speaker 4: that can be aggressive of throwing the football downfield when
Speaker 4: they get their shots and they're one on ones. They're
Speaker 4: big receivers on the outside, but are both also gonna
Speaker 4: be able to run the football and sustain long drives.
Speaker 3: Report Yeah, Ben, I have I have a follow up
Speaker 3: question on this. So, looking at the total in the
Speaker 3: look ahead market, it was fifty three and a half,
Speaker 3: which is right where I have it projected right now.
Speaker 3: I have it at fifty three point three. So I
Speaker 3: saw that number, I'm like, yes, I'm a genius. Nailed
Speaker 3: like nailed it where it should be the right, you know.
Speaker 3: And then it opens the early line on Sunday night
Speaker 3: is fifty two, and then it dropped to fifty one,
Speaker 3: and then now it's fifty and a half, and I'm like, okay,
Speaker 3: like you know, there's some value here on the other side.
Speaker 3: I'm like, you know what, Like the market is telling
Speaker 3: me something that my like original line might be wrong,
Speaker 3: you know, like it's on my instinct, Like I'm with you,
Speaker 3: like everything you said, I agree with my projection has
Speaker 3: it there. I think there's value to the over. The
Speaker 3: unders have been hitting more in this season, you know,
Speaker 3: and it's a high total. So like, how do you
Speaker 3: reconcile the perspective like the game matchup and seeing what's
Speaker 3: happening on the field with what we've seen in the
Speaker 3: market since last week.
Speaker 4: Yeah, So for me coming from this, like I was
Speaker 4: a football writer, like at an analysis before I ever
Speaker 4: really got into betting, So I never ever came from
Speaker 4: a modeling perspective. So a lot of the times when
Speaker 4: I'm against line movement, it's typically because there's something I
Speaker 4: particularly like in the matchup, right where I'm like, all right,
Speaker 4: like you know, metrics and models.
Speaker 2: The game might not be catching X, Y and Z.
Speaker 4: But when I watch the Seahawks offense, when I watch
Speaker 4: the Chargers defense, whatever it is, I feel like this
Speaker 4: is going to work well for them. And that's where
Speaker 4: I'm at with this Chargers running game against what you're
Speaker 4: gonna get from the Seahawks run defense. The Seahawks defense
Speaker 4: has been really, really rough to start the year, and
Speaker 4: then they have this game against the Cardinals, usually one
Speaker 4: of the highest powered offenses. They're generating turnovers. They changed
Speaker 4: their front round a little bit. They were running other
Speaker 4: fronts to start the season. They put out different stuff
Speaker 4: against the Cardinals and they held them down. It's like,
Speaker 4: all right, maybe the Seahws are going to be a
Speaker 4: little bit more of a low scoring, low total team.
Speaker 4: But when you get down to brass tacks, I think
Speaker 4: that the Chargers are better across the board in terms
Speaker 4: of offensive personnel. And I don't think the Seahawks are
Speaker 4: going to keep the changes they ran against the Cardinals
Speaker 4: against a non divisional opponent, because oftentimes you're building the
Speaker 4: spoke game plans for teams are going to see twice.
Speaker 4: You don't do that as much for teams they kind
Speaker 4: of are just on your schedule in a weekly basis.
Speaker 4: So I want to be surprised to the Seahawks go
Speaker 4: back to the same old fronts they were running, you know,
Speaker 4: go back to the same old leaky run defense that
Speaker 4: lets the Charges stay ahead of the six. And the
Speaker 4: whole Chargers issue on offense is when they get behind
Speaker 4: the sticks because they don't push the ball down the field.
Speaker 4: They only run routes to the six. They drives film
Speaker 4: watchers nuts this Joven Barney offense. So if they can
Speaker 4: run the ball well, the offense is going to work.
Speaker 4: It's when they fall behind the six then they started
Speaker 4: losing points and they get put in these four down positions.
Speaker 4: I like the Chargers rush offense a lot of a
Speaker 4: lot of Eckler overs, and that's what gives me a look.
Speaker 2: At the total of this game.
Speaker 1: I think that makes a ton of sense to me.
Speaker 1: I like the sound of it as well. But Matt,
Speaker 1: you know, and I don't really like the sound of
Speaker 1: link seven points on the road. Here are you gonna
Speaker 1: do that with the Dolphins versus the quarterback to be determined? Steelers?
Speaker 1: Where are you going here? Steelers coming off that big win?
Speaker 3: Dolphins are at home?
Speaker 2: Right?
Speaker 3: Correct me if I if I'm wrong here, If wrong,
Speaker 3: I would.
Speaker 1: Be that would be me wrong. For some reason, I
Speaker 1: have I have Dolphins at Steelers on my rundown.
Speaker 3: Here, Dolphins Dolphins at home. Yeah, seven is the number.
Speaker 3: And I do like them in the spot like I feel,
Speaker 3: And I would like to get Ben's thoughts on this, because,
Speaker 3: like Ben is, as you said, like football rider much
Speaker 3: more knowledgeable about like the the intricacies of the schemes, right,
Speaker 3: it's all may Yeah, Well, I assure you you're more
Speaker 3: knowledgeable than I am. But you know, I'd like to
Speaker 3: get your thoughts on on Tua in this spot because
Speaker 3: I think what we've seen out of Tua is real
Speaker 3: this season, and I think if that is the case,
Speaker 3: this line is really wrong. Like I don't want to
Speaker 3: say where I had it projected, kind of given the
Speaker 3: assumptions that I had of like, Okay, this is the
Speaker 3: difference between Tua and the backup quarterbacks that we've seen,
Speaker 3: because it is was way higher than minus seven. So
Speaker 3: there's a very good chance that I'm wrong, But I
Speaker 3: think Tua is I think he's been underappreciated. So he's
Speaker 3: coming back, right, He's been cleared, he's practicing fully. Man.
Speaker 3: The Dolphins, they've had a top ten pass offense this year,
Speaker 3: and that was with Bridgewater and Skyler Thompson playing most
Speaker 3: of the past three weeks.
Speaker 2: Uh.
Speaker 3: And it's nothing against Bridgewater and Thompson, but they are
Speaker 3: not Tua, who is number one this year in ESPN,
Speaker 3: QBR number one and adjusted yards per attempt and number
Speaker 3: two and EPA and completion percentage over expectation. Now, granted
Speaker 3: that happened in only like three three and some change,
Speaker 3: but you know, just do the head to head comparison
Speaker 3: between Tua and Teddy Bridgewater and Skyler Thompson. Sixty nine
Speaker 3: point six percent completion rate for him, fifty nine point
Speaker 3: four percent completion rate for those guys, nine point two
Speaker 3: adjusted yards per attempt for Teddy six point two, nine
Speaker 3: point two to six point two. That is a massive
Speaker 3: gap in adjusted yards per attempt. A seven percent touchdown
Speaker 3: rate for Tua two point eight percent touchdown rate for
Speaker 3: Bridgewater and Thompson two point six percent, interception rate, three
Speaker 3: point eight percent interception rate, and then the sack rate
Speaker 3: five percent, sack rate for for Tua seven point eight percent.
Speaker 3: So I think there's a pretty big difference between Tua
Speaker 3: and the guys who are backing him up. And like, sure,
Speaker 3: you can say what we've seen out of Tua this
Speaker 3: year has more to do with the scheme, more to
Speaker 3: do with the head coach, Mike McDaniel, and more to
Speaker 3: do with the playmakers around him than with any innate
Speaker 3: talent he has. Well, Like, that's fine, if that's the
Speaker 3: perspective that you have, but like we've still seen him
Speaker 3: do well versus other guys not do well within that system.
Speaker 3: And I'll just say, like, given everything we know about
Speaker 3: Tua up to this point, I think we should take
Speaker 3: his outperformance this year at something close to face value.
Speaker 3: He was the number one quarterback in his recruitment class.
Speaker 3: He had a come from behind off the bench championship
Speaker 3: at Alabama against Georgia as a true freshman. He was
Speaker 3: one of the best college quarterbacks we've ever seen. He
Speaker 3: was selected number five overall, and he fell that far
Speaker 3: only because of a catastrophic and career threatening hip injury, right,
Speaker 3: and then he had I would say understandably an uneven
Speaker 3: adjustment period to the NFL in his first two seasons
Speaker 3: as he recovered from that injury and navigated offensive coordinator
Speaker 3: incompetence and rollover in Miami.
Speaker 2: At least three of coordinator approach last year.
Speaker 3: No, No, imagine having more offensive coordinators than number of
Speaker 3: seasons you've been in the league. That's that's nearly unfathomable. So, like,
Speaker 3: based on all of that information, I think it's fair
Speaker 3: to say what we've seen out of Tua, like he's
Speaker 3: probably not the best quarterback in the league, but like
Speaker 3: the level that he has played at is something that
Speaker 3: is like within the realm of reality for what we
Speaker 3: should expect for him moving forward. The Dolphins offense twenty
Speaker 3: seven point seven points per game in weeks one through three,
Speaker 3: sixteen points per game in weeks four through six, like
Speaker 3: three to zero against the spread with Tua zero and
Speaker 3: three and against the spread in the most three recent
Speaker 3: recent weeks. So like, I'm just I am very much
Speaker 3: on the idea that Tua matters more to the spread
Speaker 3: than what has been baked into the spread at this point.
Speaker 3: So I think seven is too low. And then last
Speaker 3: week the Steelers they were without four starters and secondary
Speaker 3: Even if all of those guys return this week, they're
Speaker 3: still not going to be at full health at full health.
Speaker 3: And of course, you know you have all pred all
Speaker 3: pro edge rusher to j Watt and you know Larry
Speaker 3: Ogunjobi on the defensive line who also is uncertain in
Speaker 3: his health. So I don't know, I know, seven is
Speaker 3: a lot, but man, I just I think that this
Speaker 3: is a line that is is too low relative to
Speaker 3: what we saw out of Tua in this offense in
Speaker 3: weeks one through three.
Speaker 2: Yeah, So I was surprised to say Dolphins minus even right.
Speaker 2: I thought it would be bigger.
Speaker 4: As a man who bet Bucks minus a very heavily,
Speaker 4: and that bet Bucks live lines also heavily.
Speaker 2: I'm not loving big.
Speaker 4: Spreads against the Steelers right now, but I was surprised
Speaker 4: to see the size of that line. There's one point
Speaker 4: five things that give me pause. The figure point about
Speaker 4: Tua and what he brings to the schemers, what scheme
Speaker 4: the scheme brings in is extremely well taken. You said,
Speaker 4: you know, maybe this is more about the scheme than
Speaker 4: it has any particular talent than Tua has. That's half true, right,
Speaker 4: Like this is a really really good offense.
Speaker 2: Mike Daniel's a great designer. Like this is you know,
Speaker 2: this is the offense, Gujore, This is what people are running.
Speaker 4: But if you want to run a yack oriented offense,
Speaker 4: you've got to have a really accurate quarterback. And for
Speaker 4: all of his limits arm strength wise, height wise, the
Speaker 4: ability to play out of structure, especially post hip injury,
Speaker 4: all of which have been limiting factors for Tua, he
Speaker 4: throws an extremely accurate football. Ball placement is so important
Speaker 4: in yak offense. Is if you hit a guy out
Speaker 4: of stride, still catchable, but it's on the wrong shoulders.
Speaker 2: Out of stride.
Speaker 4: He's tackled for a twelve yard game, you hit him
Speaker 4: in stride, especially when it's Jalen Wattle speed or Tyree
Speaker 4: Hill speed. We saw that one of question against Patriots gone,
Speaker 4: that's ball placement. That's why that play worked. And other
Speaker 4: quarterbacks who made this offense successful haven't been that accurate,
Speaker 4: like Jimmy is not that accurate. Kirk is not that
Speaker 4: pinpoint accurate. So Tool brings that and that helps the offense.
Speaker 4: What was really impressive about this offense was we thought
Speaker 4: last year when they're running all the RPO stuff, you
Speaker 4: were like, yeah, this is what you do with an
Speaker 4: accurate week arm quarterback. You run the RPO sow he
Speaker 4: throws the tight windows and then whatever they got him
Speaker 4: going deep down the field. They're not just going the
Speaker 4: ARPBEO stuff. They're runing play action boots stuff, keep guys
Speaker 4: to protect. And then two is being accurate fifteen yards,
Speaker 4: twenty yards, twenty five yards. And then certainly when he
Speaker 4: goes to the downhill stuff, it's not super accurate, but
Speaker 4: that fifteen to twenty yard range throw him with a
Speaker 4: lot of accuracy. That's yeah, with fifteen yards of a dot,
Speaker 4: that's unbelievable. Nobody else gets that in league, and they
Speaker 4: don't get it with waddle and hill speed. It's great
Speaker 4: the exchange the cost. And this is what worries me
Speaker 4: for the Steelers game is if you're going to run
Speaker 4: the deep play action stuff instead of the RBO stuff,
Speaker 4: two has.
Speaker 2: To hold the ball.
Speaker 4: Two has to wait in the pocket, and as we've
Speaker 4: seen through three weeks, two has to get hit. And
Speaker 4: the number one thing to ask about the Dolphins right
Speaker 4: now is how comfortable are they going to be running
Speaker 4: the offense they ran with two of the first three
Speaker 4: weeks of the season, given the Concussionci's taken.
Speaker 2: How willing are they going to be to subject him
Speaker 2: to hits? Because the way they play.
Speaker 4: Offense assumes their quarterback is going to be able to
Speaker 4: think shots. He has to hold onto the ball for
Speaker 4: a while. And they have a bad offensive line.
Speaker 2: They try to add guys to pass protection, but there's
Speaker 2: alway somebody who's going to lead through.
Speaker 4: That's the nature of this offense. So that's the one
Speaker 4: thing that worries made. The point five is three weeks awesome.
Speaker 4: It's a small sample and usually about four weeks is
Speaker 4: where I say, okay, if this can last more than
Speaker 4: four weeks, I believe in the in the fact that
Speaker 4: the film has been seen by defense coordinators and they
Speaker 4: still haven't answered it. I've only got three weeks and
Speaker 4: two of film, so I'm curious to see. Like Mike
Speaker 4: Tomlin tends to be really, really good in terms of
Speaker 4: bespoke game plans, game plans to stop one certain offense.
Speaker 2: Very interested to see what this looks like. So I pause.
Speaker 2: I'm not taking dove with mine seven right now, but
Speaker 2: it is an.
Speaker 4: Island game, and so you may find me tention in
Speaker 4: allow you a couple of minutes before kickoff.
Speaker 2: The big question for me is the hits.
Speaker 4: If they're not willing to let it get hit the
Speaker 4: way they were a month ago, they can't win the
Speaker 4: offense they were running a month ago.
Speaker 2: That's what's this in jenery.
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Speaker 1: cash some tickets together. Now back to the show. Now,
Speaker 1: how about here the Falcons going up against the Bengals.
Speaker 1: The Bengals obviously that slow start to the season, but
Speaker 1: all of a sudden they've been very much back in gear. Here. Meanwhile,
Speaker 1: the Falcons the only undefeated team against the spread so
Speaker 1: far this season. And it's really because they keep giving
Speaker 1: us these touchdown or greater spreads. And it's six and
Speaker 1: a half in this game here. I as bad as
Speaker 1: this offense looks, sometimes I can still trust them to
Speaker 1: cover these numbers.
Speaker 2: Why yeah, So that's the thing is.
Speaker 4: Like, offense isn't pretty in terms of like efficiency and
Speaker 4: passing or whatever, but this is a good, cool offense.
Speaker 4: The way the Falcons run offense is a way that
Speaker 4: very few, if any teams weren't even a remotely amalagains offense.
Speaker 4: You're not getting two full backs on the field, you know,
Speaker 4: running pistol diamonds, you know readoption.
Speaker 2: Nobody else is doing this.
Speaker 4: I mean that means that it forces you to prepare
Speaker 4: on a week, right forced you prepare in a week
Speaker 4: for something you haven't really prepped for, even like the
Speaker 4: Bengals being in the division with the Ravens and kind
Speaker 4: of sometimes seeing similar stuff still isn't that's analogous because
Speaker 4: the Ravens are run as downhill, as physical.
Speaker 2: Actually as big a backs as what the Falcons are doing.
Speaker 4: And this Bengals run defense has been suspect since losing
Speaker 4: DJ Reader.
Speaker 2: Their nose tackle into world of their run defense.
Speaker 4: They've been bottom ten and rushipa per play allowed since
Speaker 4: losing Reader.
Speaker 2: And also they now have perhaps lost Logan Wilson.
Speaker 4: They've been a linebacker who they're kind of like saying
Speaker 4: is day to day, but also sustained a pretty major injury.
Speaker 2: If you played in would be nuts.
Speaker 4: That's the core of your run defense right there. And
Speaker 4: if the Falcons beat you, they beat you. Run on
Speaker 4: the football. This is a very very effective running game
Speaker 4: to third in the league right now in like Tobe
Speaker 4: rushing yards. They're second of the last three weeks in
Speaker 4: Rushia paper play like, this is a trustworthy group. So
Speaker 4: there's that big mismatch there that, to me, lets this
Speaker 4: thing hang within a touchdown, less this thing hang within
Speaker 4: a score.
Speaker 3: The other.
Speaker 2: Question mark that I have about the Bengals that really
Speaker 2: brings me into this game is that the Bengals are
Speaker 2: trying to fix this offense. Right, they kind of had
Speaker 2: this this issue to go in her center.
Speaker 4: They run, it doesn't work, and they go shotgun and
Speaker 4: they get too high and whatever, and they're trying to
Speaker 4: run this RPO.
Speaker 2: Game, and that's good. It's it's it's an okay solution.
Speaker 2: It's not perfect.
Speaker 4: It's hard to run an RPO against zone blitz defenses
Speaker 4: because zone blitz defense has changed changed the picture on
Speaker 4: your post snap, like all right, I'm gonna read this
Speaker 4: one guy and all of a sudden, that guy's not
Speaker 4: there anymore. That's what DMPs does. This is a confusion
Speaker 4: based defense who's hard to run the RPO against. So
Speaker 4: if they try to go RPO, you can see turnovers,
Speaker 4: you can see mishandled snaps, you can see sacks in
Speaker 4: the backfield, I think this Bengals offense runs into some
Speaker 4: issues against lay the Falcons play, especially if Ajterrell is
Speaker 4: available to a race to Mark Chase, because Trell is
Speaker 4: that talented.
Speaker 2: I like the Falcons plus this point five, Give me
Speaker 2: Terrell healthy and I'll take it.
Speaker 1: Are you following it? Are you falling bent on this one? Matt?
Speaker 2: Uh?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I have I have this at five point five,
Speaker 3: So yeah, it's six and a half. I do think
Speaker 3: that there's value going through six, which isn't like a
Speaker 3: huge key number, but in today's NFL, especially with lower totals,
Speaker 3: is it's key enough. So yeah, I do think that
Speaker 3: there's value in Alta.
Speaker 1: Now, one more game that I want to ask you
Speaker 1: guys about.
Speaker 3: Ben.
Speaker 1: It's on that board there behind you, Chiefs and forty
Speaker 1: nine ers here the Chiefs laying two and a half.
Speaker 1: I got it when it was three because I thought
Speaker 1: that this number would go the opposite way, so the
Speaker 1: market I missed out on the market here. But what
Speaker 1: are you thinking in terms of this game? Because I'm
Speaker 1: seeing people on Twitter. I get the Vegas values the Niners.
Speaker 1: I am very low on the Niners, and I feel
Speaker 1: like this is one of those games that the Chiefs
Speaker 1: just role. I'm looking at some alternate spreads in this one.
Speaker 2: Yeah. I love the Niners and the Niners are a
Speaker 2: great team. I love why they play football. I don't
Speaker 2: think I could I could list all of the names
Speaker 2: they have on the Andrew Report on one breath like that.
Speaker 4: That's where we're at right now, is this look at
Speaker 4: line was one and a half and then they got
Speaker 4: even more banged up on their most recent game against Atlanta,
Speaker 4: right which we saw kind of the way that Atlanta
Speaker 4: I was able to run the football on this team
Speaker 4: because the entire defensive line was in that game. Nick
Speaker 4: both some research, Davon Kim laugh, Eric Armstead right, Samson
Speaker 4: ebucom the Drake Jackson the USK because that's.
Speaker 2: Just the defensive line.
Speaker 4: Really, really big thing that concerns me, though, is no
Speaker 4: manual mods that he's out for the year.
Speaker 2: Tryvarious Ward right now is on defence.
Speaker 4: I'm pretty sure he got a limited practice in Thursday
Speaker 4: at Memory Service. But if you want to beat this
Speaker 4: Chiefs team right now, you man up on the outside.
Speaker 4: Because their wide receiver talent isn't what it used to be.
Speaker 4: The Niners were already weak at corner if they're bringing
Speaker 4: Jason Barrett back for his first game this season and
Speaker 4: then running a gid pe Tarvarius Ward out there, I'm
Speaker 4: not confident in their ability to man off now with
Speaker 4: Patrick Mahomes playing quarterback.
Speaker 2: So you're going to try to run your quarter stuff.
Speaker 4: You're gonna try to do what they always do, just
Speaker 4: rush with four generate pressure and plays one behind. Rush
Speaker 4: with four against Mahomes sometimes works, but usually you have
Speaker 4: to have all your stars, and they ain't got none
Speaker 4: of them right now.
Speaker 2: But horses aren't there in the bullpen. So this defense
Speaker 2: is so, so so good. I love this defense. I
Speaker 2: love betting on this defense, not when most of it
Speaker 2: is missing. It's just to me, the injury attrition is too.
Speaker 1: Much for this to be under I'm feeling good about
Speaker 1: this game. I bet at earlier at the wrong line,
Speaker 1: but it is what it is. Matt, what about you?
Speaker 3: Yeah, I do have this at two and a half.
Speaker 3: But you know, I know I need to make adjustments
Speaker 3: as we get more information on the injury reports, and
Speaker 3: so I always make assumptions when I'm setting my early
Speaker 3: projections about who will be injured and who won't be
Speaker 3: And so I know I'm gonna need to adjust that.
Speaker 3: But one thing I will say that gives me a
Speaker 3: little bit of encouragement that we do have Jimmy Ward
Speaker 3: who practiced limitedly on Wednesday, so his return to the
Speaker 3: secondary is big. And we have Trent Williams who practiced
Speaker 3: on a limited basis on Wednesday as well. So if
Speaker 3: Williams returns, I think that makes a pretty significant difference
Speaker 3: to the offensive line. So that, you know, gives me
Speaker 3: a little bit of hope there for the forty nine ers.
Speaker 3: But you know that said, I have this projected exactly
Speaker 3: at two and a half right now, and even with
Speaker 3: some of the adjustments I make, I don't think I'm
Speaker 3: gonna get all that far from that line.
Speaker 1: I'm always ready to bet against Jimmy G. That's one
Speaker 1: of my number one core philosophies in sports betting, and
Speaker 1: I'm happy to do it in this spot, even though
Speaker 1: I am laying couple parts on the road here.
Speaker 3: This is the Jimmy G spot, Like he's sixteen and
Speaker 3: four for his career as an underdog, like.
Speaker 1: Well, we'll hopefully be talking about We'll hopefully be talking
Speaker 1: about these more on Tuesday this week. But I'm not
Speaker 1: putting a lot of stock in that trend. I don't
Speaker 1: think that that's a big enough sample size for you
Speaker 1: to really be paying attention to it when you're betting
Speaker 1: these two teams. Like, he hasn't had that long a career,
Speaker 1: especially as a starter. And also I just still don't
Speaker 1: think that this forty nine ers team is very good.
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna betting against him.
Speaker 3: There, that's that's what it is. And tell him, look,
Speaker 3: it's it's that you don't like the forty nine Ers.
Speaker 3: If Zach Wilson we're sixteen and four as an underdog
Speaker 3: against this bread, you would love it. You would be like,
Speaker 3: this guy's got that dog in him. We'll see.
Speaker 1: I still want to see more from Zach to see
Speaker 1: if he still has that dog in him, but I can't.
Speaker 1: Three things in life for certain man, death taxes, and
Speaker 1: Jimmy G game breaking interceptions. These are the three constants.
Speaker 3: Yeah that's fair, that's fair. So bet the over on
Speaker 3: his interception. Say yeah, well you first believe I am.
Speaker 1: I bet it every week. It's a profitable bed, I think,
Speaker 1: or at least turnovers. Jimmy G turnovers. Sometimes he sneaks
Speaker 1: a fumble in there. To shake things up on you.
Speaker 1: But before we let you go, here, Ben, final question here.
Speaker 1: We need a survivor team for the week, and my
Speaker 1: candidate the team I'm bringing up this week, I'm looking
Speaker 1: at the Raiders. I don't really have an interest in laying.
Speaker 1: I believe it's a touchdown right now for them at
Speaker 1: home here in Vegas against the Texans. But I can't
Speaker 1: bet on the Texans, and I certainly do think that
Speaker 1: the Raiders are good enough to win this game out right,
Speaker 1: both teams coming off their bye week here, are you
Speaker 1: taking them? Or are you giving us another option?
Speaker 3: Here?
Speaker 4: Raiders are fine one if you haven't burned the Buccaneers.
Speaker 4: The the miss of this mind to pay the Buccaneers,
Speaker 4: which I haven't used them yet. And that's what I'm
Speaker 4: taking to my survivor gouls. The Panthers that completed one
Speaker 4: pass beyond the line of scrimmage against the Rams. I
Speaker 4: know this because I bet them Panthers, and I did
Speaker 4: not enjoy watching that game, But in it I became
Speaker 4: very certain that the Panthers are not winning.
Speaker 2: Any football games anytime soon. So if you have the
Speaker 2: Buccaneers available, still fine the Raiders. I like the Texians.
Speaker 2: I have had trouble baiting this year. That Jacksonville game
Speaker 2: will bit in my memory for a while.
Speaker 1: Matt, how about you?
Speaker 3: Yeah, Raiders are the team that really stuck out to
Speaker 3: me when I was looking at this. So I will
Speaker 3: go with you and say the Raiders.
Speaker 1: All right, Well, guys, that is going to do it
Speaker 1: for us here Ben, where can people find you? And
Speaker 1: all the great work they're doing around the internet appreciate?
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, the Ringers were all the football stuff is
Speaker 4: ring the NFL show, I'm.
Speaker 2: New gambling every reading those opportions to do that and
Speaker 2: Anya on Twitter, Benjamins alack and we just do football.
Speaker 2: It's pretty good.
Speaker 1: Time, all right for Ben, Matt the Oracle and myself. Guys,
Speaker 1: best of luck this weekend and let's cash some tickets.