WEBVTT - Week 7 NFL Best Bets with Ben Solak (Ep 225) 0:00:00.080 --> 0:00:03.960 Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast. 0:00:04.080 --> 0:00:07.560 It is time for Week seven. We can wait no longer. 0:00:07.920 --> 0:00:10.440 We have NFL games to get back to this weekend, 0:00:10.480 --> 0:00:12.800 and here to break them all down for us. Of course, 0:00:12.960 --> 0:00:17.279 as always, the Oracle himself, Matt Friedman joins me and 0:00:17.400 --> 0:00:20.640 today helping us break down the entire Week seven slater, 0:00:20.720 --> 0:00:23.400 or at least our favorite games of it, none other than 0:00:23.440 --> 0:00:25.960 Ben Solac of The Ringer. Ben, thank you so much 0:00:26.000 --> 0:00:26.520 for joining us. 0:00:26.560 --> 0:00:28.920 How are you doing today? Wow? I appreciate charm me falls. 0:00:29.400 --> 0:00:32.400 We appreciate you you coming on as well and sharing 0:00:32.440 --> 0:00:34.960 some time and knowledge with us here because we have 0:00:35.000 --> 0:00:36.520 some great games to get to. This is a really 0:00:36.960 --> 0:00:41.160 interesting slate in my opinion, is there so many games. 0:00:41.360 --> 0:00:44.919 It doesn't feel as yucky as last week slate did, 0:00:44.920 --> 0:00:46.639 where you were kind of holding your nose to make 0:00:46.680 --> 0:00:50.160 some of these bets like Panthers plus ten and a half, etc. 0:00:50.640 --> 0:00:53.279 But here we've got some decent spreads. We've got some 0:00:53.360 --> 0:00:56.000 pretty evenly matched games too to talk about. We're gonna 0:00:56.040 --> 0:00:59.200 start that off with you, Matt. The Ravens are six 0:00:59.280 --> 0:01:02.560 and a half points favorites versus the Browns in this 0:01:02.640 --> 0:01:06.960 divisional matchup here, and that number still six and a 0:01:07.040 --> 0:01:09.640 half here, it was six. It's been floating around in 0:01:09.680 --> 0:01:11.319 that six to six and a half range. Hasn't gone 0:01:11.360 --> 0:01:14.119 to seven all week. But are you going with the 0:01:14.160 --> 0:01:16.800 Browns or are you taking the Ravens and laying the 0:01:16.840 --> 0:01:17.479 points at home? 0:01:18.280 --> 0:01:22.160 Very much on the Ravens at this point, Kevin Stefanski 0:01:22.200 --> 0:01:25.000 is two and eleven against the spread in division I 0:01:25.040 --> 0:01:29.000 mean horrible against people who know him, and then specifically 0:01:29.040 --> 0:01:31.720 against John Harbaugh. Zero to four against the spread for 0:01:31.840 --> 0:01:35.120 Kevin Stefanski, So the historical trends don't look good for 0:01:35.200 --> 0:01:38.720 him there, and I mean really it comes down for 0:01:38.840 --> 0:01:41.920 me this Ravens rush offense against the Browns run defense. 0:01:41.959 --> 0:01:46.920 The Ravens have a top three run offense in rush EPOA, EPOA, 0:01:47.160 --> 0:01:50.040 rush DVOA, and the Browns are bottom three in both 0:01:50.040 --> 0:01:52.040 of those metrics. And in our Fantasy pros you know, 0:01:52.120 --> 0:01:54.919 power rankings. The Ravens, especially now they have left tackled 0:01:54.960 --> 0:01:57.920 Ronnie Stanley healthy, they have been the eighth best offensive 0:01:57.920 --> 0:01:59.920 line and we have the Browns with the eighth word 0:02:00.240 --> 0:02:03.680 defensive line. Number one running back JK. Dobbins is uncertain, 0:02:03.920 --> 0:02:06.200 but I really don't think that matters all that much. 0:02:06.320 --> 0:02:09.280 Like backup running back Kenyan Drake looked pretty good last week. 0:02:09.880 --> 0:02:12.680 They have Justice Hill returning, so I think they will 0:02:12.720 --> 0:02:14.880 be fine in the backfield. And then, of course, like 0:02:14.960 --> 0:02:18.320 Lamar Jackson is the ultimate cheat code as the running quarterback. 0:02:19.120 --> 0:02:21.839 So the Ravens bat against the run, I mean, sorry, 0:02:21.880 --> 0:02:24.600 the Browns bad against the run anyway, and then you 0:02:24.600 --> 0:02:27.240 know they're significantly injured on that side of the ball 0:02:27.280 --> 0:02:31.640 to no Chase Wino, which Steven Weatherly, no Anthony Walker, 0:02:32.200 --> 0:02:36.520 Jadevian Clowney might be out, Dion Jones he might be 0:02:36.600 --> 0:02:39.000 able to return for this game, but maybe not, and 0:02:39.040 --> 0:02:41.000 if he does, it's still his first game within a 0:02:41.680 --> 0:02:44.760 new defense, so I don't think it looks good for them. 0:02:44.760 --> 0:02:46.760 And if a home team can control the clock with 0:02:46.800 --> 0:02:49.160 the ground game, it has the ability to pile on 0:02:49.200 --> 0:02:51.080 the points. So I think that's what the Ravens are 0:02:51.080 --> 0:02:51.440 gonna do. 0:02:52.280 --> 0:02:54.400 I'm completely with you on this one, but Ben, what 0:02:54.440 --> 0:02:57.000 do you think here? Any dissension from that's take? 0:02:57.280 --> 0:02:57.360 No? 0:02:57.480 --> 0:02:58.240 I like Ravens. 0:02:58.360 --> 0:03:01.800 I'm worried about mar Andrews not practicing. He missed the 0:03:01.800 --> 0:03:04.960 second straight practice this week, and I think the Ravens 0:03:04.960 --> 0:03:07.880 are already really fragile build in terms of weapons generally 0:03:08.080 --> 0:03:10.919 no JK. Dobbins probably this week, and then know Andrews 0:03:10.919 --> 0:03:13.680 and without Rashawn Bateman, it's like, Okay, this is just 0:03:13.720 --> 0:03:16.720 a very bad offense in terms of the non Lamark pieces. 0:03:17.000 --> 0:03:18.280 But the proof of the put ins in the een 0:03:18.320 --> 0:03:20.960 with the running game. And yeah, the Browns rush defense 0:03:21.040 --> 0:03:22.520 is not just the worst in the league, but EPA 0:03:22.639 --> 0:03:25.800 for play it's twice as bad as the thirtieth defense. 0:03:25.960 --> 0:03:30.520 So it's like multiple standard deviations worse than your average 0:03:30.560 --> 0:03:33.560 run defense in the league. And so the Ravens scheme 0:03:33.600 --> 0:03:36.320 should make this happen. And you also like, I think 0:03:36.320 --> 0:03:37.800 the Ravens. If you like the Ravens, you like them 0:03:37.840 --> 0:03:39.920 on the line now because they tend to be really 0:03:39.920 --> 0:03:41.920 good through the first three quarters. Then get things away late. 0:03:42.040 --> 0:03:44.440 If you like the Browns, wait, the Raves are gonna 0:03:44.440 --> 0:03:45.880 get a lead and then just hit it live and 0:03:45.880 --> 0:03:47.839 then you can kind of catch a better number when 0:03:47.840 --> 0:03:50.400 the Ravens inevitably failed or in the fourth quarter. 0:03:50.880 --> 0:03:53.240 Yeah, and I'm a little bit hopeful that Rashaan Bateman 0:03:53.360 --> 0:03:55.800 will play in this game, because he did practice on 0:03:55.840 --> 0:03:59.040 a limited basis on Wednesday, so better than the dnps 0:03:59.080 --> 0:04:01.720 that we had last week. So you know, continue to 0:04:01.760 --> 0:04:03.760 monitor him throughout the week because at least if Mark 0:04:03.840 --> 0:04:07.280 Andrews is out, if Bateman is in, that helps at least, 0:04:07.320 --> 0:04:09.840 you know, kind of calm the nerves. 0:04:10.320 --> 0:04:12.160 Yeah, I'm hopeful for Bateman to play as well. I 0:04:12.200 --> 0:04:14.760 think he will. If he's already practicing. I think they're gonna, 0:04:15.000 --> 0:04:16.480 you know, nudge him a little bit and say, hey, 0:04:16.480 --> 0:04:18.720 can you give it a go, especially if Mark's banged up. 0:04:19.120 --> 0:04:20.960 This could be a really big game for him if 0:04:20.960 --> 0:04:23.720 he comes back for it. But another really big game 0:04:23.800 --> 0:04:27.640 on the docket this week, the Jets and the Broncos 0:04:27.720 --> 0:04:30.880 here and kuys. I cannot believe it. Four and two 0:04:31.320 --> 0:04:33.640 are the New York Jets right now. If they win 0:04:33.760 --> 0:04:38.120 this game, I'm officially on the bandwagon of this team 0:04:38.120 --> 0:04:40.520 can make the playoffs. You look at that second half schedule. 0:04:40.920 --> 0:04:42.599 All they need to do is pick off one of 0:04:42.600 --> 0:04:45.120 the next three, because they got the Broncos, then the Patriots, 0:04:45.160 --> 0:04:47.680 and then the Bills. If they can pick this game off, 0:04:47.720 --> 0:04:49.920 you can go into your bye week at five and three, 0:04:50.880 --> 0:04:52.760 come back out on the other side with an easy 0:04:52.800 --> 0:04:54.680 second half. Schedule. The Bills are the only team with 0:04:54.720 --> 0:04:57.599 a winning record on it, I think right now. But 0:04:58.600 --> 0:05:00.680 this is also the spot now people are starting to 0:05:00.680 --> 0:05:02.320 say the same thing, and this is where the Jets 0:05:02.440 --> 0:05:05.200 like to drink the kool aid and then come out 0:05:05.200 --> 0:05:08.000 with just an absolutely abysmal performance against a team that 0:05:08.279 --> 0:05:10.039 they should be beating. And I feel like that's the 0:05:10.080 --> 0:05:13.040 Broncos right now. This game open two and a half 0:05:13.160 --> 0:05:16.680 or three, depending on your shot. But then Monday Night 0:05:16.760 --> 0:05:18.920 happened and the Broncos have been bet all the way 0:05:19.000 --> 0:05:21.760 down to just a one point favorite. Right now, then 0:05:22.160 --> 0:05:24.680 where are you going in this one? Is it Broncos country? 0:05:24.720 --> 0:05:25.360 Let's ride? 0:05:25.839 --> 0:05:29.440 No, it never has been, inever will be. So I 0:05:29.520 --> 0:05:30.920 like the Jets in this one. I liked him at two, 0:05:30.960 --> 0:05:32.440 I still like him at one. I think that this 0:05:32.520 --> 0:05:34.200 is I may just be about to pick them, especially 0:05:34.200 --> 0:05:35.919 with the uncertainty of quarterback, which I. 0:05:35.960 --> 0:05:37.760 Jokingly said of the pre show. I definitely like it 0:05:37.760 --> 0:05:38.440 if Russ is playing. 0:05:38.440 --> 0:05:40.080 I'm not sure I like it if the backup's playing. 0:05:40.240 --> 0:05:42.479 But it's a little bit true if if Brett Rippin 0:05:42.520 --> 0:05:45.400 plays this game. Because Russ is questionable coming in, there's 0:05:45.440 --> 0:05:47.720 a chance that this offense looks better because Russ has 0:05:47.800 --> 0:05:50.320 been the major limiting factor in this offense. 0:05:50.360 --> 0:05:51.200 There's no choice about them. 0:05:51.560 --> 0:05:54.279 There's other problems, but Russ is if you're ranking the factors, 0:05:54.360 --> 0:05:55.360 Russ has been number one. 0:05:55.600 --> 0:05:57.640 And so you do you know, like. 0:05:57.600 --> 0:05:59.239 You're like, all right, I get to fade a backup quarterback. 0:05:59.320 --> 0:06:01.839 Oh maybe not like it's a weird situation for Denver. 0:06:02.200 --> 0:06:03.880 But what the Jets do that I like is they 0:06:03.920 --> 0:06:07.000 run the football extremely well. They've had a carousel on 0:06:07.040 --> 0:06:09.120 the offensive line yet still somehow scraped together in a 0:06:09.120 --> 0:06:09.560 good unit. 0:06:09.720 --> 0:06:10.719 The third and rush. 0:06:10.560 --> 0:06:13.120 ePaper player over the last three weeks, Reese Hall was 0:06:13.200 --> 0:06:14.320 like all that in a bag of chips. 0:06:14.440 --> 0:06:17.320 And they have this two running back set with Mike. 0:06:17.360 --> 0:06:18.680 Part of it works really well for them. 0:06:18.720 --> 0:06:20.680 It's tough to defend because multiple guys who can take 0:06:20.680 --> 0:06:22.599 a handoff, you can go in jet motion. They're on 0:06:22.680 --> 0:06:25.280 the reverses, they're on the gadget plays. It's a nice 0:06:25.320 --> 0:06:27.200 little offense that Mike Belfore has going. And then they 0:06:27.200 --> 0:06:29.360 have the weapons to win the passing game if they 0:06:29.440 --> 0:06:31.240 need to. They haven't really used Zach Wilson for the 0:06:31.279 --> 0:06:33.880 last couple weeks, and that's probably better for where Zach 0:06:34.000 --> 0:06:35.920 is in his development. But they have Garrett Wilson, and 0:06:35.960 --> 0:06:38.400 they have Elijah Moore assuming he's happy and wants to 0:06:38.440 --> 0:06:39.080 play football. 0:06:39.120 --> 0:06:41.080 They have Corey Davis. They can win on their one 0:06:41.120 --> 0:06:41.400 on one. 0:06:41.480 --> 0:06:43.880 So this offense has a formula that works that I 0:06:44.000 --> 0:06:47.080 tend to trust enough getting points against the Denver team 0:06:47.120 --> 0:06:48.560 that to me isn't going to score more than like 0:06:48.600 --> 0:06:52.000 sixteen seventeen. Denver defense really really really good. So if 0:06:52.000 --> 0:06:54.560 you're missing how there it is. If you're missing this game, 0:06:54.880 --> 0:06:56.960 you're missing it on I think like defensive stops on 0:06:57.000 --> 0:06:59.479 turnovers on short fields for the Broncos because this Jets 0:06:59.480 --> 0:07:01.000 defensive line, it's gonna read some havoc. 0:07:00.760 --> 0:07:02.560 No matter who's playing quarterback back there. So I like 0:07:02.600 --> 0:07:04.800 it a plus money. It's a weird one though, So 0:07:04.839 --> 0:07:05.560 if you want to stay. 0:07:05.400 --> 0:07:08.280 Away and I'm playing you, I'm finally in. I bet 0:07:08.360 --> 0:07:10.680 them last week against the Packers beas that was more 0:07:10.720 --> 0:07:14.520 so a take on the Packers just last couple. 0:07:14.320 --> 0:07:17.400 Of weeks w on seven point lines. Very beautiful. 0:07:17.760 --> 0:07:19.760 Yeah, you can't keep giving that to us. I'm gonna 0:07:19.800 --> 0:07:21.320 keep taking it. But now this one, this is that 0:07:21.400 --> 0:07:23.080 spot where I'm like Oh, they're gonna come out and 0:07:23.080 --> 0:07:25.680 break my heart now. But no, I'm believing I'm ready 0:07:25.720 --> 0:07:28.880 to get hurt again by this team. Matt, what about you? 0:07:28.960 --> 0:07:30.920 Are you riding with the Jets or are you going 0:07:30.960 --> 0:07:33.520 with Russell Wilson and the Broncos. 0:07:33.560 --> 0:07:37.640 Sadly, very sadly, I bet the Broncos on the look Ahead. 0:07:38.040 --> 0:07:41.160 Oh no, I hate myself. I just absolutely hate myself. 0:07:41.200 --> 0:07:43.920 I for like, and now I saw that that commercial, 0:07:44.040 --> 0:07:46.960 the second commercial with the Danger Witch, and I just 0:07:47.040 --> 0:07:50.040 can't for the rest of the year. I am not 0:07:50.160 --> 0:07:53.400 betting on Russell Wilson. I'm just I'm totally done, and 0:07:53.440 --> 0:07:56.840 I might flip where I just start betting against him, uh, 0:07:57.040 --> 0:08:00.480 depending on the setup. But this defense with the Jets, 0:08:00.840 --> 0:08:03.600 I'm really impressed with them. You know, I think they've 0:08:03.600 --> 0:08:06.400 got two really good cover corners. Sauce Gardner has looked 0:08:06.680 --> 0:08:10.520 as good as we've seen any quarterback, like shades of 0:08:10.560 --> 0:08:14.239 like Marshawn Lattimore's rookie season, and honestly maybe even better 0:08:14.400 --> 0:08:18.760 than that, Like he has been amazing. So I'm impressed 0:08:18.760 --> 0:08:20.200 with the defense. And it has been said like that 0:08:20.320 --> 0:08:24.120 running game has really gotten going for the Jets, whose 0:08:24.200 --> 0:08:29.120 offensive line woes, they've managed to bandage up pretty nicely. 0:08:29.200 --> 0:08:33.400 So for me, if I hadn't bet, it would probably 0:08:33.440 --> 0:08:38.360 be a stay away. But yeah, I mean I'm not. 0:08:38.840 --> 0:08:41.880 I'm very much not on the Broncos at this point. 0:08:43.120 --> 0:08:46.000 You know, talking about that offensive line real quick, Elijah 0:08:46.080 --> 0:08:48.840 Vera Tucker is having one of the best seasons that 0:08:48.880 --> 0:08:51.720 we've seen out of alignment in a long time. Like that, 0:08:51.920 --> 0:08:54.360 they have moved that guy for as much of the 0:08:54.400 --> 0:08:57.400 injury woes as Mackay Beckton has had, they have been 0:08:57.400 --> 0:08:59.960 able to move Vera Tucker. Both guard spots now play 0:09:00.200 --> 0:09:02.760 right tackle. He's playing everywhere on this line. It's insane. 0:09:03.200 --> 0:09:05.440 It's like Larry Allen, like back in the day with 0:09:05.480 --> 0:09:07.760 the Cowboys, which of course I'm gonna bring it back 0:09:07.800 --> 0:09:10.240 to the Cowboys, the nineties Cowboys with an offensive line, 0:09:10.280 --> 0:09:12.360 but like I mean, Larry Allen was like the dude 0:09:12.360 --> 0:09:15.600 who could play all over that offensive line, and like 0:09:15.640 --> 0:09:19.240 Elijah Vera Tucker, like it feels like he's got that capability. 0:09:19.320 --> 0:09:22.200 Like I know he's in theory a guard, but I 0:09:22.240 --> 0:09:24.960 think he actually has some like real tackle potential. 0:09:25.800 --> 0:09:27.800 Well, the Jets need all the help that they can 0:09:27.800 --> 0:09:29.920 get right now. As the line still gets healthy and 0:09:29.960 --> 0:09:32.000 by the way, the danger Witch commercial. Have you seen 0:09:32.040 --> 0:09:35.200 the video of it where someone put Russ and his 0:09:35.280 --> 0:09:38.360 audio over the Joker in the scene where he crashes 0:09:38.400 --> 0:09:42.640 the party in the dark night. It fits way too perfectly. 0:09:42.800 --> 0:09:43.960 I have I can't remember. 0:09:43.960 --> 0:09:48.160 It's really unsettling because you're like, oh, this, this fits 0:09:48.200 --> 0:09:50.760 like he could have been the Joker in this movie easily. 0:09:50.960 --> 0:09:54.199 That's sad, but hey, you know, good news for the Broncos. 0:09:54.200 --> 0:09:55.680 At least it's not like you're tied up to a 0:09:55.720 --> 0:09:58.920 massive contract and blew a tremendous amount of draft capital 0:09:58.920 --> 0:10:00.840 to bring him in, so you're you're able to move 0:10:00.840 --> 0:10:03.520 on without much pain there. As we move on to 0:10:03.600 --> 0:10:07.360 the next game on the slate here, speaking of your Cowboys, Matt, 0:10:07.400 --> 0:10:11.719 the Lions come to town and this poor Lions team, man, 0:10:11.760 --> 0:10:14.559 they can't catch a break. One of the best offenses 0:10:14.559 --> 0:10:17.800 in football right now. The defense is terrible. They're getting 0:10:17.920 --> 0:10:20.400 seven here versus the Cowboys and they still have a 0:10:20.440 --> 0:10:21.840 tremendously awful record. 0:10:22.480 --> 0:10:24.640 Yeah, I mean, Tom, you know, it was the bane 0:10:24.640 --> 0:10:27.199 of my existence last year to bet against my Cowboys, 0:10:28.240 --> 0:10:30.679 like I wouldn't be able to celebrate them winning because 0:10:30.679 --> 0:10:32.880 I would just be losing money as it was happening. 0:10:32.920 --> 0:10:35.400 But I'm going back to it. I'm betting against the 0:10:35.440 --> 0:10:38.520 Cowboys in the spot, and it's I mean, I'm impressed 0:10:38.640 --> 0:10:42.280 with the Lions, even though they are losing games and 0:10:42.320 --> 0:10:46.400 their defense has been absolutely horrible. On offense, they've been 0:10:46.440 --> 0:10:49.400 good and you know, Dan Campbell five and one against 0:10:49.440 --> 0:10:52.400 the spread versus teams with winning records at the time 0:10:52.520 --> 0:10:56.360 of the game, and you know, just like cover heroes, 0:10:56.760 --> 0:11:00.320 the Lions have been in the Dan Campbell era. So 0:11:00.559 --> 0:11:02.480 I do like them in this spot. I do like 0:11:02.520 --> 0:11:04.000 the way they match up. I like that they're coming 0:11:04.000 --> 0:11:05.840 off of the buy so they've had time to prepare, 0:11:06.280 --> 0:11:08.760 and I think it's for me this offensive line against 0:11:08.760 --> 0:11:11.120 the Cowboys defensive line. Like, Okay, last year, I thought 0:11:11.160 --> 0:11:15.040 the Cowboys defense was fraudulent. They had a really unstable 0:11:15.240 --> 0:11:18.280 league high twenty six interceptions like that was clearly not 0:11:18.400 --> 0:11:20.920 something that could be sustained year over year, and they 0:11:20.960 --> 0:11:24.160 allowed the twelfth most yards per play. I thought that's 0:11:24.240 --> 0:11:26.800 the offense, sorry, the defense that they really were. But 0:11:27.200 --> 0:11:31.160 I mean this year they've been They've been legitimate, right, like, 0:11:31.400 --> 0:11:34.719 not as opportunistic, but number one in sacks, number two 0:11:34.760 --> 0:11:37.600 in quarterback hits, number three in yards per play allowed, 0:11:37.840 --> 0:11:41.640 Like they've got a really strong group of edge rushers, Parsons, 0:11:41.640 --> 0:11:45.760 DeMarcus Lawrence, Doran's armstrong, Dante Fowler, like Faler is actually 0:11:45.760 --> 0:11:47.800 like he was a bus back in the day now 0:11:47.840 --> 0:11:50.960 he actually on this defensive line is looking really good. 0:11:51.000 --> 0:11:55.480 The Cowboys number one and adjusted sack rate. But that 0:11:56.040 --> 0:12:00.160 Lions offensive line, if it's not the best in the league, 0:12:00.280 --> 0:12:03.160 I think it's top three. I personally have it ranked 0:12:03.160 --> 0:12:05.720 as the number one offensive line. Like they are number 0:12:05.720 --> 0:12:09.319 one in adjusted ZACH rate. They are doing a phenomenal 0:12:09.440 --> 0:12:13.400 job of protecting Jared Goff to where he has actually 0:12:13.440 --> 0:12:17.800 looked like a competent quarterback once again this year. And 0:12:17.840 --> 0:12:20.800 then in terms of the running game, like they've got 0:12:20.800 --> 0:12:25.280 it their top five in rush EPA, rush DVOA, adjusted lineyards, 0:12:25.360 --> 0:12:27.920 and the Cowboys are outside of the top ten and 0:12:27.960 --> 0:12:30.839 defensively in all of those metrics. So I think it's 0:12:31.040 --> 0:12:33.400 a game where the Lions are going to be able 0:12:33.440 --> 0:12:36.160 to run the ball against the Cowboys. They're going to 0:12:36.200 --> 0:12:38.720 be able to protect Jared Goff or protect him more 0:12:39.080 --> 0:12:41.880 than the typical offensive line has been able to do 0:12:41.960 --> 0:12:45.560 when facing the Cowboys, and I think that means seven 0:12:45.600 --> 0:12:46.920 points is too much. 0:12:48.160 --> 0:12:51.160 Yeah, this offense feels like they can move the football. 0:12:51.280 --> 0:12:53.920 As for the Lions, it's the defense that's giving you problems. 0:12:53.920 --> 0:12:56.440 And also, Dak Prescott might be back for this Ben, 0:12:56.480 --> 0:12:57.360 what do you think about it? 0:12:58.000 --> 0:13:01.360 Yeah, Prescott's playing. I think seven is the correct line. 0:13:01.400 --> 0:13:03.320 And then Prescott said today that he's going to start, 0:13:03.360 --> 0:13:05.520 And usually when players say they're going to start, like, 0:13:05.520 --> 0:13:06.319 all right, that's probably true. 0:13:06.360 --> 0:13:08.040 There's a chance that's not, but the starting quarterback is 0:13:08.040 --> 0:13:08.280 all right. 0:13:08.880 --> 0:13:11.560 The thing for me is if I like Lions plus seven, 0:13:11.600 --> 0:13:14.480 which I do. I implied like the over, and it's been 0:13:14.480 --> 0:13:15.560 a weirdier for overs. 0:13:15.600 --> 0:13:17.920 It's been tough as a man who likes the bet overs. 0:13:17.920 --> 0:13:19.760 I understand forty and a half is one of the 0:13:20.040 --> 0:13:22.240 bigger numbers are going to see on the lines this week. 0:13:22.480 --> 0:13:24.720 But if this game stays within seven, it's because the 0:13:24.720 --> 0:13:27.000 Lions offense is able to keep pace. We expect this 0:13:27.080 --> 0:13:29.360 defense to give up points no matter what, right, And 0:13:29.400 --> 0:13:32.200 so I do like Lions plus seven. I like being 0:13:32.240 --> 0:13:33.960 able to build it into the over as well, and 0:13:33.960 --> 0:13:35.559 see if I can, like teaze down the line and 0:13:35.600 --> 0:13:37.760 get a little bit more space in that just because 0:13:37.800 --> 0:13:42.479 Detroit's offense can be much more volatile than it appears because. 0:13:42.200 --> 0:13:44.400 Of how often they go for it on fourth down, right. 0:13:44.280 --> 0:13:46.440 So they're putting out yards or play, they're putting out 0:13:46.520 --> 0:13:47.120 yards per drive. 0:13:47.200 --> 0:13:48.400 It look like they're going to cover. 0:13:48.440 --> 0:13:49.600 And then in terms of they have like no points 0:13:49.600 --> 0:13:52.520 against the Patriots because they over five on fourth downs, right, 0:13:52.559 --> 0:13:55.400 So that aggression makes them cover heroes, like Matt was saying, 0:13:55.600 --> 0:13:58.200 but sometimes it can kill you. And so if we're 0:13:58.200 --> 0:14:00.880 expecting that Lion's offense to keep it close, and I 0:14:00.920 --> 0:14:02.839 think we're looking at like a fifty plus point total. 0:14:03.000 --> 0:14:04.839 Both these teams can run it well, but they run 0:14:04.840 --> 0:14:06.240 it with a good pace of play and the Gopher 0:14:06.240 --> 0:14:08.040 explosives to go over play action pass, so you're not 0:14:08.040 --> 0:14:10.240 gonna see the time run off the clock too quickly. 0:14:10.440 --> 0:14:12.160 I like the Lions. I also like the over if 0:14:12.160 --> 0:14:14.040 you if you're on the Lions side. 0:14:14.280 --> 0:14:15.680 I think that makes a lot. I mean, you have 0:14:15.720 --> 0:14:18.760 a fantastic offense and an atrocious defense. That's a recipe 0:14:18.800 --> 0:14:21.320 for overs right there, especially in a game like this. 0:14:21.440 --> 0:14:24.520 Your biggest hope is that the Cowboys defense can't totally 0:14:24.560 --> 0:14:26.200 stifle the Lions and they get you at least a 0:14:26.240 --> 0:14:28.880 little bit towards that over. But I think that's pretty reasonable. 0:14:29.440 --> 0:14:32.240 Yeah, it's going to be interesting to see what this 0:14:32.280 --> 0:14:35.040 offense look like looks like with Dak back because they 0:14:35.080 --> 0:14:39.400 did so many good, responsible, smart offensive team building things. 0:14:39.200 --> 0:14:41.640 With rush, early down, play action, you're going to rot 0:14:41.640 --> 0:14:42.280 to your backs. 0:14:42.680 --> 0:14:44.560 When they play Prescott, they tend to be like, go 0:14:44.600 --> 0:14:46.640 be an adult, and they don't do any of this helpful. 0:14:46.360 --> 0:14:48.600 Stuff, and it would be frustrating if that's the case. Again. 0:14:49.320 --> 0:14:52.440 Yeah, the play calling definitely takes a step back there. 0:14:52.800 --> 0:14:55.320 And speaking of teams taking a step back, the Chicago 0:14:55.400 --> 0:14:57.920 Bears have taken a step back into about nineteen forty 0:14:58.040 --> 0:14:59.920 three when it comes to the way that they play 0:15:00.080 --> 0:15:03.320 offense this season. They're going up against the Patriots this 0:15:03.400 --> 0:15:06.040 week on Monday Night because we just can't get enough 0:15:06.040 --> 0:15:07.600 of these great primetime matchups. 0:15:07.640 --> 0:15:07.800 Here. 0:15:07.840 --> 0:15:10.560 The total in this game, Ben is thirty nine and 0:15:10.600 --> 0:15:15.920 a half. Right now, that's so astronomically low. You can't 0:15:15.960 --> 0:15:18.320 really bet the under. Are you looking at the over? 0:15:18.920 --> 0:15:20.880 I'm betting the under. No, I'm absolutely betting out there. 0:15:22.360 --> 0:15:25.120 Bill Belichick spent about seven minutes during its press conference 0:15:25.160 --> 0:15:26.960 talking about how good the Bears are, which. 0:15:26.920 --> 0:15:28.240 Bill Belichick's to kiss of death. 0:15:28.320 --> 0:15:30.400 When Bill Belichick does that, it means you're you're going 0:15:30.440 --> 0:15:33.000 to total eighty yards. It means you're gonna have a horrible, 0:15:33.040 --> 0:15:36.520 horrible day. Bill's really good at talking positively about teams 0:15:36.520 --> 0:15:39.120 that he is confident he is a beat on. And 0:15:39.160 --> 0:15:40.840 the thing about the Bears, and the Bears are so 0:15:41.600 --> 0:15:45.120 siloed on offense. This Belichick's better than anybody else for 0:15:45.120 --> 0:15:46.640 as long as he's been a coach. You're taking away 0:15:46.640 --> 0:15:48.640 with you do best. And the Bears are about two 0:15:48.640 --> 0:15:51.800 pitches right. The Bears have our split zone outside of 0:15:51.840 --> 0:15:54.320 on running game, our boot action off of it all, 0:15:54.360 --> 0:15:57.000 they can't drop back, they can't run anything else right, 0:15:57.040 --> 0:15:58.440 and they have no variety. 0:15:58.120 --> 0:15:59.960 In the running game. They have to live in that world. 0:16:00.200 --> 0:16:03.520 So yeah, Justin Field's gonna get one a couple scrambles, He's. 0:16:03.000 --> 0:16:04.160 Gonna rip off a couple of a couple of big 0:16:04.240 --> 0:16:05.000 chunks on third downs. 0:16:05.000 --> 0:16:07.120 But you guys, a great athlete other than that, Like, 0:16:07.160 --> 0:16:09.120 this isn't gonna be like the Vikings game where the 0:16:09.120 --> 0:16:10.960 Bears walk out in the second in the second half, 0:16:10.960 --> 0:16:12.880 and they were like, you know, yeah, run our stuff, 0:16:12.880 --> 0:16:14.000 and all of a sudden they put twenty points on 0:16:14.000 --> 0:16:15.720 the board. Because the Vikings just have simple defense. No 0:16:15.800 --> 0:16:17.680 Belichick takes way what you do well. So I think 0:16:17.720 --> 0:16:19.400 the Bears are gonna have a really tough time. 0:16:19.320 --> 0:16:20.320 Moving the ball on offense. 0:16:20.560 --> 0:16:23.040 And then when the Patriots have the ball, they're second 0:16:23.040 --> 0:16:24.360 in the league right now in terms of pace per 0:16:24.400 --> 0:16:26.400 play on the slow side. The Titans are the slowest 0:16:26.400 --> 0:16:29.200 in terms of the second suscember play, and then the Patriots. 0:16:28.800 --> 0:16:31.360 Are right there with Bailey Zappi at quarterback. 0:16:31.400 --> 0:16:33.840 They've been more under centered, they've been more run oriented, 0:16:34.040 --> 0:16:35.760 and then they go to their play ash and pass. 0:16:35.800 --> 0:16:37.760 The only way they get explosives if it is if 0:16:37.760 --> 0:16:40.200 it's your oars after the catch, And this Matt Eberflutz 0:16:40.240 --> 0:16:41.520 defense is all about. 0:16:41.320 --> 0:16:43.560 Play drop zone, play on top of guys, don't wait 0:16:43.560 --> 0:16:44.280 guys back for the. 0:16:44.200 --> 0:16:46.440 Catch, hustle up, rally up, and tackle. So you're gonna 0:16:46.440 --> 0:16:48.560 see the Patriots struggle to get explosives. They're gonna run, 0:16:48.560 --> 0:16:50.200 they're gonna eat a ton o'clock, and I think they're 0:16:50.200 --> 0:16:51.520 gonna get on top of the Bears. And the Bears 0:16:51.560 --> 0:16:53.640 are gonna struggle score. So do I love betting a 0:16:53.680 --> 0:16:55.920 total under when it starts with a three? No? 0:16:56.280 --> 0:16:57.800 Do I see a way that either one of these 0:16:57.840 --> 0:16:58.880 teams gets over twenty? 0:16:59.240 --> 0:16:59.320 No? 0:16:59.720 --> 0:17:03.440 I'm in on a nice prime time thirteen to sixteen 0:17:03.480 --> 0:17:04.400 stinker and I'm looking. 0:17:04.240 --> 0:17:04.760 Forward to it. 0:17:05.640 --> 0:17:08.119 Oh that's a thousand percent. What's about to happen in 0:17:08.160 --> 0:17:10.479 this game? You just know, because for some reason we 0:17:10.480 --> 0:17:14.040 were insistent upon putting the absolute trash of the NFL 0:17:14.560 --> 0:17:18.000