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Speaker 1: Hello everyone, and welcome on into the Betting Pros Podcast.

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Speaker 1: It is time for Week seven. We can wait no longer.

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Speaker 1: We have NFL games to get back to this weekend,

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Speaker 1: and here to break them all down for us. Of course,

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Speaker 1: as always, the Oracle himself, Matt Friedman joins me and

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Speaker 1: today helping us break down the entire Week seven slater,

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Speaker 1: or at least our favorite games of it, none other than

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Speaker 1: Ben Solac of The Ringer. Ben, thank you so much

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Speaker 1: for joining us.

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Speaker 2: How are you doing today? Wow? I appreciate charm me falls.

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Speaker 1: We appreciate you you coming on as well and sharing

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Speaker 1: some time and knowledge with us here because we have

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Speaker 1: some great games to get to. This is a really

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Speaker 1: interesting slate in my opinion, is there so many games.

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Speaker 1: It doesn't feel as yucky as last week slate did,

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Speaker 1: where you were kind of holding your nose to make

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Speaker 1: some of these bets like Panthers plus ten and a half, etc.

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Speaker 1: But here we've got some decent spreads. We've got some

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Speaker 1: pretty evenly matched games too to talk about. We're gonna

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Speaker 1: start that off with you, Matt. The Ravens are six

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Speaker 1: and a half points favorites versus the Browns in this

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Speaker 1: divisional matchup here, and that number still six and a

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Speaker 1: half here, it was six. It's been floating around in

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Speaker 1: that six to six and a half range. Hasn't gone

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Speaker 1: to seven all week. But are you going with the

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Speaker 1: Browns or are you taking the Ravens and laying the

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Speaker 1: points at home?

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Speaker 3: Very much on the Ravens at this point, Kevin Stefanski

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Speaker 3: is two and eleven against the spread in division I

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Speaker 3: mean horrible against people who know him, and then specifically

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Speaker 3: against John Harbaugh. Zero to four against the spread for

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Speaker 3: Kevin Stefanski, So the historical trends don't look good for

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Speaker 3: him there, and I mean really it comes down for

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Speaker 3: me this Ravens rush offense against the Browns run defense.

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Speaker 3: The Ravens have a top three run offense in rush EPOA, EPOA,

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Speaker 3: rush DVOA, and the Browns are bottom three in both

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Speaker 3: of those metrics. And in our Fantasy pros you know,

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Speaker 3: power rankings. The Ravens, especially now they have left tackled

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Speaker 3: Ronnie Stanley healthy, they have been the eighth best offensive

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Speaker 3: line and we have the Browns with the eighth word

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Speaker 3: defensive line. Number one running back JK. Dobbins is uncertain,

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Speaker 3: but I really don't think that matters all that much.

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Speaker 3: Like backup running back Kenyan Drake looked pretty good last week.

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Speaker 3: They have Justice Hill returning, so I think they will

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Speaker 3: be fine in the backfield. And then, of course, like

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Speaker 3: Lamar Jackson is the ultimate cheat code as the running quarterback.

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Speaker 3: So the Ravens bat against the run, I mean, sorry,

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Speaker 3: the Browns bad against the run anyway, and then you

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Speaker 3: know they're significantly injured on that side of the ball

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Speaker 3: to no Chase Wino, which Steven Weatherly, no Anthony Walker,

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Speaker 3: Jadevian Clowney might be out, Dion Jones he might be

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Speaker 3: able to return for this game, but maybe not, and

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Speaker 3: if he does, it's still his first game within a

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Speaker 3: new defense, so I don't think it looks good for them.

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Speaker 3: And if a home team can control the clock with

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Speaker 3: the ground game, it has the ability to pile on

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Speaker 3: the points. So I think that's what the Ravens are

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Speaker 3: gonna do.

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Speaker 1: I'm completely with you on this one, but Ben, what

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Speaker 1: do you think here? Any dissension from that's take?

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Speaker 4: No?

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Speaker 2: I like Ravens.

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Speaker 4: I'm worried about mar Andrews not practicing. He missed the

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Speaker 4: second straight practice this week, and I think the Ravens

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Speaker 4: are already really fragile build in terms of weapons generally

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Speaker 4: no JK. Dobbins probably this week, and then know Andrews

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Speaker 4: and without Rashawn Bateman, it's like, Okay, this is just

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Speaker 4: a very bad offense in terms of the non Lamark pieces.

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Speaker 4: But the proof of the put ins in the een

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Speaker 4: with the running game. And yeah, the Browns rush defense

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Speaker 4: is not just the worst in the league, but EPA

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Speaker 4: for play it's twice as bad as the thirtieth defense.

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Speaker 4: So it's like multiple standard deviations worse than your average

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Speaker 4: run defense in the league. And so the Ravens scheme

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Speaker 4: should make this happen. And you also like, I think

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Speaker 4: the Ravens. If you like the Ravens, you like them

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Speaker 4: on the line now because they tend to be really

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Speaker 4: good through the first three quarters. Then get things away late.

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Speaker 4: If you like the Browns, wait, the Raves are gonna

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Speaker 4: get a lead and then just hit it live and

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Speaker 4: then you can kind of catch a better number when

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Speaker 4: the Ravens inevitably failed or in the fourth quarter.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, and I'm a little bit hopeful that Rashaan Bateman

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Speaker 3: will play in this game, because he did practice on

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Speaker 3: a limited basis on Wednesday, so better than the dnps

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Speaker 3: that we had last week. So you know, continue to

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Speaker 3: monitor him throughout the week because at least if Mark

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Speaker 3: Andrews is out, if Bateman is in, that helps at least,

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Speaker 3: you know, kind of calm the nerves.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, I'm hopeful for Bateman to play as well. I

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Speaker 1: think he will. If he's already practicing. I think they're gonna,

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Speaker 1: you know, nudge him a little bit and say, hey,

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Speaker 1: can you give it a go, especially if Mark's banged up.

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Speaker 1: This could be a really big game for him if

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Speaker 1: he comes back for it. But another really big game

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Speaker 1: on the docket this week, the Jets and the Broncos

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Speaker 1: here and kuys. I cannot believe it. Four and two

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Speaker 1: are the New York Jets right now. If they win

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Speaker 1: this game, I'm officially on the bandwagon of this team

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Speaker 1: can make the playoffs. You look at that second half schedule.

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Speaker 1: All they need to do is pick off one of

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Speaker 1: the next three, because they got the Broncos, then the Patriots,

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Speaker 1: and then the Bills. If they can pick this game off,

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Speaker 1: you can go into your bye week at five and three,

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Speaker 1: come back out on the other side with an easy

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Speaker 1: second half. Schedule. The Bills are the only team with

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Speaker 1: a winning record on it, I think right now. But

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Speaker 1: this is also the spot now people are starting to

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Speaker 1: say the same thing, and this is where the Jets

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Speaker 1: like to drink the kool aid and then come out

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Speaker 1: with just an absolutely abysmal performance against a team that

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Speaker 1: they should be beating. And I feel like that's the

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Speaker 1: Broncos right now. This game open two and a half

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Speaker 1: or three, depending on your shot. But then Monday Night

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Speaker 1: happened and the Broncos have been bet all the way

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Speaker 1: down to just a one point favorite. Right now, then

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Speaker 1: where are you going in this one? Is it Broncos country?

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Speaker 1: Let's ride?

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Speaker 4: No, it never has been, inever will be. So I

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Speaker 4: like the Jets in this one. I liked him at two,

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Speaker 4: I still like him at one. I think that this

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Speaker 4: is I may just be about to pick them, especially

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Speaker 4: with the uncertainty of quarterback, which I.

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Speaker 2: Jokingly said of the pre show. I definitely like it

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Speaker 2: if Russ is playing.

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Speaker 4: I'm not sure I like it if the backup's playing.

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Speaker 4: But it's a little bit true if if Brett Rippin

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Speaker 4: plays this game. Because Russ is questionable coming in, there's

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Speaker 4: a chance that this offense looks better because Russ has

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Speaker 4: been the major limiting factor in this offense.

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Speaker 2: There's no choice about them.

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Speaker 4: There's other problems, but Russ is if you're ranking the factors,

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Speaker 4: Russ has been number one.

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Speaker 2: And so you do you know, like.

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Speaker 4: You're like, all right, I get to fade a backup quarterback.

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Speaker 4: Oh maybe not like it's a weird situation for Denver.

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Speaker 4: But what the Jets do that I like is they

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Speaker 4: run the football extremely well. They've had a carousel on

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Speaker 4: the offensive line yet still somehow scraped together in a

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Speaker 4: good unit.

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Speaker 2: The third and rush.

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Speaker 4: ePaper player over the last three weeks, Reese Hall was

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Speaker 4: like all that in a bag of chips.

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Speaker 2: And they have this two running back set with Mike.

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Speaker 2: Part of it works really well for them.

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Speaker 4: It's tough to defend because multiple guys who can take

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Speaker 4: a handoff, you can go in jet motion. They're on

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Speaker 4: the reverses, they're on the gadget plays. It's a nice

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Speaker 4: little offense that Mike Belfore has going. And then they

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Speaker 4: have the weapons to win the passing game if they

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Speaker 4: need to. They haven't really used Zach Wilson for the

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Speaker 4: last couple weeks, and that's probably better for where Zach

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Speaker 4: is in his development. But they have Garrett Wilson, and

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Speaker 4: they have Elijah Moore assuming he's happy and wants to

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Speaker 4: play football.

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Speaker 2: They have Corey Davis. They can win on their one

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Speaker 2: on one.

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Speaker 4: So this offense has a formula that works that I

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Speaker 4: tend to trust enough getting points against the Denver team

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Speaker 4: that to me isn't going to score more than like

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Speaker 4: sixteen seventeen. Denver defense really really really good. So if

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Speaker 4: you're missing how there it is. If you're missing this game,

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Speaker 4: you're missing it on I think like defensive stops on

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Speaker 4: turnovers on short fields for the Broncos because this Jets

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Speaker 4: defensive line, it's gonna read some havoc.

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Speaker 2: No matter who's playing quarterback back there. So I like

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Speaker 2: it a plus money. It's a weird one though, So

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Speaker 2: if you want to stay.

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Speaker 1: Away and I'm playing you, I'm finally in. I bet

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Speaker 1: them last week against the Packers beas that was more

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Speaker 1: so a take on the Packers just last couple.

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Speaker 2: Of weeks w on seven point lines. Very beautiful.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, you can't keep giving that to us. I'm gonna

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Speaker 1: keep taking it. But now this one, this is that

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Speaker 1: spot where I'm like Oh, they're gonna come out and

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Speaker 1: break my heart now. But no, I'm believing I'm ready

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Speaker 1: to get hurt again by this team. Matt, what about you?

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Speaker 1: Are you riding with the Jets or are you going

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Speaker 1: with Russell Wilson and the Broncos.

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Speaker 3: Sadly, very sadly, I bet the Broncos on the look Ahead.

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Speaker 3: Oh no, I hate myself. I just absolutely hate myself.

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Speaker 3: I for like, and now I saw that that commercial,

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Speaker 3: the second commercial with the Danger Witch, and I just

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Speaker 3: can't for the rest of the year. I am not

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Speaker 3: betting on Russell Wilson. I'm just I'm totally done, and

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Speaker 3: I might flip where I just start betting against him, uh,

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Speaker 3: depending on the setup. But this defense with the Jets,

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Speaker 3: I'm really impressed with them. You know, I think they've

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Speaker 3: got two really good cover corners. Sauce Gardner has looked

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Speaker 3: as good as we've seen any quarterback, like shades of

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Speaker 3: like Marshawn Lattimore's rookie season, and honestly maybe even better

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Speaker 3: than that, Like he has been amazing. So I'm impressed

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Speaker 3: with the defense. And it has been said like that

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Speaker 3: running game has really gotten going for the Jets, whose

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Speaker 3: offensive line woes, they've managed to bandage up pretty nicely.

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Speaker 3: So for me, if I hadn't bet, it would probably

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Speaker 3: be a stay away. But yeah, I mean I'm not.

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Speaker 3: I'm very much not on the Broncos at this point.

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Speaker 1: You know, talking about that offensive line real quick, Elijah

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Speaker 1: Vera Tucker is having one of the best seasons that

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Speaker 1: we've seen out of alignment in a long time. Like that,

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Speaker 1: they have moved that guy for as much of the

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Speaker 1: injury woes as Mackay Beckton has had, they have been

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Speaker 1: able to move Vera Tucker. Both guard spots now play

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Speaker 1: right tackle. He's playing everywhere on this line. It's insane.

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Speaker 3: It's like Larry Allen, like back in the day with

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Speaker 3: the Cowboys, which of course I'm gonna bring it back

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Speaker 3: to the Cowboys, the nineties Cowboys with an offensive line,

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Speaker 3: but like I mean, Larry Allen was like the dude

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Speaker 3: who could play all over that offensive line, and like

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Speaker 3: Elijah Vera Tucker, like it feels like he's got that capability.

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Speaker 3: Like I know he's in theory a guard, but I

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Speaker 3: think he actually has some like real tackle potential.

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Speaker 1: Well, the Jets need all the help that they can

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Speaker 1: get right now. As the line still gets healthy and

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Speaker 1: by the way, the danger Witch commercial. Have you seen

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Speaker 1: the video of it where someone put Russ and his

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Speaker 1: audio over the Joker in the scene where he crashes

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Speaker 1: the party in the dark night. It fits way too perfectly.

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Speaker 2: I have I can't remember.

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Speaker 1: It's really unsettling because you're like, oh, this, this fits

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Speaker 1: like he could have been the Joker in this movie easily.

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Speaker 1: That's sad, but hey, you know, good news for the Broncos.

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Speaker 1: At least it's not like you're tied up to a

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Speaker 1: massive contract and blew a tremendous amount of draft capital

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Speaker 1: to bring him in, so you're you're able to move

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Speaker 1: on without much pain there. As we move on to

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Speaker 1: the next game on the slate here, speaking of your Cowboys, Matt,

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Speaker 1: the Lions come to town and this poor Lions team, man,

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Speaker 1: they can't catch a break. One of the best offenses

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Speaker 1: in football right now. The defense is terrible. They're getting

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Speaker 1: seven here versus the Cowboys and they still have a

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Speaker 1: tremendously awful record.

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Speaker 3: Yeah, I mean, Tom, you know, it was the bane

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Speaker 3: of my existence last year to bet against my Cowboys,

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Speaker 3: like I wouldn't be able to celebrate them winning because

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Speaker 3: I would just be losing money as it was happening.

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Speaker 3: But I'm going back to it. I'm betting against the

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Speaker 3: Cowboys in the spot, and it's I mean, I'm impressed

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Speaker 3: with the Lions, even though they are losing games and

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Speaker 3: their defense has been absolutely horrible. On offense, they've been

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Speaker 3: good and you know, Dan Campbell five and one against

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Speaker 3: the spread versus teams with winning records at the time

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Speaker 3: of the game, and you know, just like cover heroes,

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Speaker 3: the Lions have been in the Dan Campbell era. So

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Speaker 3: I do like them in this spot. I do like

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Speaker 3: the way they match up. I like that they're coming

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Speaker 3: off of the buy so they've had time to prepare,

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Speaker 3: and I think it's for me this offensive line against

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Speaker 3: the Cowboys defensive line. Like, Okay, last year, I thought

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Speaker 3: the Cowboys defense was fraudulent. They had a really unstable

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Speaker 3: league high twenty six interceptions like that was clearly not

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Speaker 3: something that could be sustained year over year, and they

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Speaker 3: allowed the twelfth most yards per play. I thought that's

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Speaker 3: the offense, sorry, the defense that they really were. But

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Speaker 3: I mean this year they've been They've been legitimate, right, like,

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Speaker 3: not as opportunistic, but number one in sacks, number two

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Speaker 3: in quarterback hits, number three in yards per play allowed,

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Speaker 3: Like they've got a really strong group of edge rushers, Parsons,

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Speaker 3: DeMarcus Lawrence, Doran's armstrong, Dante Fowler, like Faler is actually

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Speaker 3: like he was a bus back in the day now

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Speaker 3: he actually on this defensive line is looking really good.

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Speaker 3: The Cowboys number one and adjusted sack rate. But that

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Speaker 3: Lions offensive line, if it's not the best in the league,

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Speaker 3: I think it's top three. I personally have it ranked

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Speaker 3: as the number one offensive line. Like they are number

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Speaker 3: one in adjusted ZACH rate. They are doing a phenomenal

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Speaker 3: job of protecting Jared Goff to where he has actually

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Speaker 3: looked like a competent quarterback once again this year. And

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Speaker 3: then in terms of the running game, like they've got

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Speaker 3: it their top five in rush EPA, rush DVOA, adjusted lineyards,

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Speaker 3: and the Cowboys are outside of the top ten and

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Speaker 3: defensively in all of those metrics. So I think it's

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Speaker 3: a game where the Lions are going to be able

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Speaker 3: to run the ball against the Cowboys. They're going to

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Speaker 3: be able to protect Jared Goff or protect him more

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Speaker 3: than the typical offensive line has been able to do

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Speaker 3: when facing the Cowboys, and I think that means seven

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Speaker 3: points is too much.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, this offense feels like they can move the football.

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Speaker 1: As for the Lions, it's the defense that's giving you problems.

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Speaker 1: And also, Dak Prescott might be back for this Ben,

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Speaker 1: what do you think about it?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, Prescott's playing. I think seven is the correct line.

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Speaker 4: And then Prescott said today that he's going to start,

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Speaker 4: And usually when players say they're going to start, like,

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Speaker 4: all right, that's probably true.

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Speaker 2: There's a chance that's not, but the starting quarterback is

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Speaker 2: all right.

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Speaker 4: The thing for me is if I like Lions plus seven,

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Speaker 4: which I do. I implied like the over, and it's been

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Speaker 4: a weirdier for overs.

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Speaker 2: It's been tough as a man who likes the bet overs.

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Speaker 4: I understand forty and a half is one of the

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Speaker 4: bigger numbers are going to see on the lines this week.

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Speaker 4: But if this game stays within seven, it's because the

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Speaker 4: Lions offense is able to keep pace. We expect this

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Speaker 4: defense to give up points no matter what, right, And

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Speaker 4: so I do like Lions plus seven. I like being

300
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Speaker 4: able to build it into the over as well, and

301
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Speaker 4: see if I can, like teaze down the line and

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Speaker 4: get a little bit more space in that just because

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Speaker 4: Detroit's offense can be much more volatile than it appears because.

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Speaker 2: Of how often they go for it on fourth down, right.

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Speaker 4: So they're putting out yards or play, they're putting out

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Speaker 4: yards per drive.

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Speaker 2: It look like they're going to cover.

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Speaker 4: And then in terms of they have like no points

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Speaker 4: against the Patriots because they over five on fourth downs, right,

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Speaker 4: So that aggression makes them cover heroes, like Matt was saying,

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Speaker 4: but sometimes it can kill you. And so if we're

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Speaker 4: expecting that Lion's offense to keep it close, and I

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Speaker 4: think we're looking at like a fifty plus point total.

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Speaker 4: Both these teams can run it well, but they run

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Speaker 4: it with a good pace of play and the Gopher

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Speaker 4: explosives to go over play action pass, so you're not

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Speaker 4: gonna see the time run off the clock too quickly.

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Speaker 2: I like the Lions. I also like the over if

319
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Speaker 2: you if you're on the Lions side.

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Speaker 1: I think that makes a lot. I mean, you have

321
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Speaker 1: a fantastic offense and an atrocious defense. That's a recipe

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Speaker 1: for overs right there, especially in a game like this.

323
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Speaker 1: Your biggest hope is that the Cowboys defense can't totally

324
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Speaker 1: stifle the Lions and they get you at least a

325
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Speaker 1: little bit towards that over. But I think that's pretty reasonable.

326
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Speaker 4: Yeah, it's going to be interesting to see what this

327
00:14:32,280 --> 00:14:35,040
Speaker 4: offense look like looks like with Dak back because they

328
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Speaker 4: did so many good, responsible, smart offensive team building things.

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Speaker 2: With rush, early down, play action, you're going to rot

330
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Speaker 2: to your backs.

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Speaker 4: When they play Prescott, they tend to be like, go

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Speaker 4: be an adult, and they don't do any of this helpful.

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Speaker 2: Stuff, and it would be frustrating if that's the case. Again.

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Speaker 1: Yeah, the play calling definitely takes a step back there.

335
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Speaker 1: And speaking of teams taking a step back, the Chicago

336
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Speaker 1: Bears have taken a step back into about nineteen forty

337
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Speaker 1: three when it comes to the way that they play

338
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Speaker 1: offense this season. They're going up against the Patriots this

339
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Speaker 1: week on Monday Night because we just can't get enough

340
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Speaker 1: of these great primetime matchups.

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Speaker 3: Here.

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Speaker 1: The total in this game, Ben is thirty nine and

343
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Speaker 1: a half. Right now, that's so astronomically low. You can't

344
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Speaker 1: really bet the under. Are you looking at the over?

345
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Speaker 2: I'm betting the under. No, I'm absolutely betting out there.

346
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Speaker 4: Bill Belichick spent about seven minutes during its press conference

347
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Speaker 4: talking about how good the Bears are, which.

348
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Speaker 1: Bill Belichick's to kiss of death.

349
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Speaker 4: When Bill Belichick does that, it means you're you're going

350
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Speaker 4: to total eighty yards. It means you're gonna have a horrible,

351
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Speaker 4: horrible day. Bill's really good at talking positively about teams

352
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Speaker 4: that he is confident he is a beat on. And

353
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Speaker 4: the thing about the Bears, and the Bears are so

354
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Speaker 4: siloed on offense. This Belichick's better than anybody else for

355
00:15:45,120 --> 00:15:46,640
Speaker 4: as long as he's been a coach. You're taking away

356
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Speaker 4: with you do best. And the Bears are about two

357
00:15:48,640 --> 00:15:51,800
Speaker 4: pitches right. The Bears have our split zone outside of

358
00:15:51,840 --> 00:15:54,320
Speaker 4: on running game, our boot action off of it all,

359
00:15:54,360 --> 00:15:57,000
Speaker 4: they can't drop back, they can't run anything else right,

360
00:15:57,040 --> 00:15:58,440
Speaker 4: and they have no variety.

361
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Speaker 2: In the running game. They have to live in that world.

362
00:16:00,200 --> 00:16:03,520
Speaker 4: So yeah, Justin Field's gonna get one a couple scrambles, He's.

363
00:16:03,000 --> 00:16:04,160
Speaker 2: Gonna rip off a couple of a couple of big

364
00:16:04,240 --> 00:16:05,000
Speaker 2: chunks on third downs.

365
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Speaker 4: But you guys, a great athlete other than that, Like,

366
00:16:07,160 --> 00:16:09,120
Speaker 4: this isn't gonna be like the Vikings game where the

367
00:16:09,120 --> 00:16:10,960
Speaker 4: Bears walk out in the second in the second half,

368
00:16:10,960 --> 00:16:12,880
Speaker 4: and they were like, you know, yeah, run our stuff,

369
00:16:12,880 --> 00:16:14,000
Speaker 4: and all of a sudden they put twenty points on

370
00:16:14,000 --> 00:16:15,720
Speaker 4: the board. Because the Vikings just have simple defense. No

371
00:16:15,800 --> 00:16:17,680
Speaker 4: Belichick takes way what you do well. So I think

372
00:16:17,720 --> 00:16:19,400
Speaker 4: the Bears are gonna have a really tough time.

373
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Speaker 2: Moving the ball on offense.

374
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Speaker 4: And then when the Patriots have the ball, they're second

375
00:16:23,040 --> 00:16:24,360
Speaker 4: in the league right now in terms of pace per

376
00:16:24,400 --> 00:16:26,400
Speaker 4: play on the slow side. The Titans are the slowest

377
00:16:26,400 --> 00:16:29,200
Speaker 4: in terms of the second suscember play, and then the Patriots.

378
00:16:28,800 --> 00:16:31,360
Speaker 2: Are right there with Bailey Zappi at quarterback.

379
00:16:31,400 --> 00:16:33,840
Speaker 4: They've been more under centered, they've been more run oriented,

380
00:16:34,040 --> 00:16:35,760
Speaker 4: and then they go to their play ash and pass.

381
00:16:35,800 --> 00:16:37,760
Speaker 4: The only way they get explosives if it is if

382
00:16:37,760 --> 00:16:40,200
Speaker 4: it's your oars after the catch, And this Matt Eberflutz

383
00:16:40,240 --> 00:16:41,520
Speaker 4: defense is all about.

384
00:16:41,320 --> 00:16:43,560
Speaker 2: Play drop zone, play on top of guys, don't wait

385
00:16:43,560 --> 00:16:44,280
Speaker 2: guys back for the.

386
00:16:44,200 --> 00:16:46,440
Speaker 4: Catch, hustle up, rally up, and tackle. So you're gonna

387
00:16:46,440 --> 00:16:48,560
Speaker 4: see the Patriots struggle to get explosives. They're gonna run,

388
00:16:48,560 --> 00:16:50,200
Speaker 4: they're gonna eat a ton o'clock, and I think they're

389
00:16:50,200 --> 00:16:51,520
Speaker 4: gonna get on top of the Bears. And the Bears

390
00:16:51,560 --> 00:16:53,640
Speaker 4: are gonna struggle score. So do I love betting a

391
00:16:53,680 --> 00:16:55,920
Speaker 4: total under when it starts with a three? No?

392
00:16:56,280 --> 00:16:57,800
Speaker 2: Do I see a way that either one of these

393
00:16:57,840 --> 00:16:58,880
Speaker 2: teams gets over twenty?

394
00:16:59,240 --> 00:16:59,320
Speaker 3: No?

395
00:16:59,720 --> 00:17:03,440
Speaker 4: I'm in on a nice prime time thirteen to sixteen

396
00:17:03,480 --> 00:17:04,400
Speaker 4: stinker and I'm looking.

397
00:17:04,240 --> 00:17:04,760
Speaker 2: Forward to it.

398
00:17:05,640 --> 00:17:08,119
Speaker 1: Oh that's a thousand percent. What's about to happen in

399
00:17:08,160 --> 00:17:10,479
Speaker 1: this game? You just know, because for some reason we

400
00:17:10,480 --> 00:17:14,040
Speaker 1: were insistent upon putting the absolute trash of the NFL

401
00:17:14,560 --> 00:17:18,000
Speaker 1: in prime time here, Matt, do you have any different

402
00:17:18,040 --> 00:17:21,280
Speaker 1: dissenting opinion on that one?

403
00:17:20,880 --> 00:17:24,919
Speaker 3: I mean, I have this projected pretty close to the total.

404
00:17:25,119 --> 00:17:27,600
Speaker 3: It's slightly to the over, but like I promise you,

405
00:17:27,680 --> 00:17:30,080
Speaker 3: I'm not betting the over in this spot. I'm probably

406
00:17:30,119 --> 00:17:32,159
Speaker 3: staying away from the total. But you know what been

407
00:17:32,240 --> 00:17:34,359
Speaker 3: said there. I think the number you gave was like

408
00:17:34,400 --> 00:17:37,439
Speaker 3: sixteen to thirteen. Like that does make me think, Like

409
00:17:38,600 --> 00:17:40,920
Speaker 3: it's not that I want to bet on the Bears, right,

410
00:17:41,080 --> 00:17:43,440
Speaker 3: but I do think that if you are to bet

411
00:17:43,480 --> 00:17:49,280
Speaker 3: on the side, eight points is a lot in exactly, yeah,

412
00:17:49,320 --> 00:17:53,040
Speaker 3: and a game with a low total and you know,

413
00:17:53,200 --> 00:17:58,840
Speaker 3: backup quarterback running oriented teams, you know, like eight, I

414
00:17:58,880 --> 00:18:01,840
Speaker 3: am on, I'm on the Bears in that spot.

415
00:18:04,200 --> 00:18:07,120
Speaker 1: I mean, it makes sense in order for I don't

416
00:18:07,200 --> 00:18:09,360
Speaker 1: like laying a ton of points with a team I'm

417
00:18:09,359 --> 00:18:12,280
Speaker 1: not confident in scoring, and I'm really not confident in

418
00:18:12,480 --> 00:18:14,760
Speaker 1: the Patriots getting the eight points they need to cover

419
00:18:14,800 --> 00:18:18,160
Speaker 1: in this game. This could end six nothing pretty easily here.

420
00:18:18,600 --> 00:18:20,880
Speaker 1: That's the only dilemma that I'd have. It's the same

421
00:18:20,880 --> 00:18:22,480
Speaker 1: reason why I didn't like the Packers when they were

422
00:18:22,560 --> 00:18:24,240
Speaker 1: laying like the ten and a half numbers, because you

423
00:18:24,280 --> 00:18:27,440
Speaker 1: just can't trust the offense. So I definitely see where

424
00:18:27,480 --> 00:18:29,679
Speaker 1: you're going here. This is a stay away from me

425
00:18:29,800 --> 00:18:32,000
Speaker 1: until Monday night, when I bet into the closing line

426
00:18:32,040 --> 00:18:33,920
Speaker 1: like an idiot, because I just want to have some

427
00:18:33,960 --> 00:18:37,080
Speaker 1: reasonally care about this game. But I'll bet the under

428
00:18:37,119 --> 00:18:38,679
Speaker 1: in that one so I don't have to root for

429
00:18:38,720 --> 00:18:43,120
Speaker 1: these terrible offenses. But Matt, the Giants and the Jaguars.

430
00:18:43,520 --> 00:18:47,200
Speaker 1: Speaking of terrible, yeah, really, for the longest time, that's

431
00:18:47,240 --> 00:18:49,280
Speaker 1: what these two teams were. And yet all of a sudden,

432
00:18:49,320 --> 00:18:51,560
Speaker 1: here we are. The Jags. Yeah, they've slid a couple

433
00:18:51,600 --> 00:18:55,520
Speaker 1: of weeks now after that hot start, But the Giants,

434
00:18:56,119 --> 00:18:59,520
Speaker 1: they seem legit. Five and one here they're getting three

435
00:18:59,560 --> 00:19:03,159
Speaker 1: points they head down to Jacksonville. Are you going with

436
00:19:03,480 --> 00:19:04,080
Speaker 1: Big Blue?

437
00:19:04,640 --> 00:19:04,840
Speaker 3: Yeah?

438
00:19:04,920 --> 00:19:05,240
Speaker 2: I was.

439
00:19:05,400 --> 00:19:07,480
Speaker 1: By the way, now the official name of Matt Dable

440
00:19:07,560 --> 00:19:08,240
Speaker 1: of Brian Dable.

441
00:19:08,840 --> 00:19:12,080
Speaker 3: Yeah, it's that's fair well earned, by the way. Yeah,

442
00:19:12,119 --> 00:19:14,600
Speaker 3: I have a little bit of a sickness whenever Daniel

443
00:19:14,680 --> 00:19:17,960
Speaker 3: Jones is a road underdog, I bet on him. You know,

444
00:19:18,119 --> 00:19:21,120
Speaker 3: that's just it's something, it's something that I do. He's

445
00:19:21,160 --> 00:19:23,320
Speaker 3: thirteen and six against the spread on the road, twenty

446
00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:26,119
Speaker 3: one and thirteen as an underdog, twelve and four against

447
00:19:26,119 --> 00:19:29,879
Speaker 3: the spread as a road underdog. There's just like something

448
00:19:29,880 --> 00:19:32,359
Speaker 3: about the style of play. I don't know. I haven't

449
00:19:32,359 --> 00:19:35,119
Speaker 3: been able to like identify why it is that he

450
00:19:35,200 --> 00:19:38,480
Speaker 3: does well in the spot, but historically he has done well,

451
00:19:38,720 --> 00:19:40,520
Speaker 3: and I like the matchup, So you're not gonna need

452
00:19:40,560 --> 00:19:43,199
Speaker 3: to twist my arm too much for betting into this.

453
00:19:43,880 --> 00:19:47,280
Speaker 3: It's Saquon Barkley against the Jags rush defense. That's when

454
00:19:47,280 --> 00:19:48,520
Speaker 3: it comes out to, like, we all know what the

455
00:19:48,520 --> 00:19:50,159
Speaker 3: Giants want to do in this game. They want to

456
00:19:50,240 --> 00:19:52,760
Speaker 3: run the ball, and they run more than they pass

457
00:19:52,800 --> 00:19:55,080
Speaker 3: a fifty two percent rush rate. You know, it's hard

458
00:19:55,119 --> 00:19:57,399
Speaker 3: to do that in today's NFL, But that's what you

459
00:19:57,440 --> 00:19:59,879
Speaker 3: do when you have Daniel Jones a quarterback and squ

460
00:20:00,440 --> 00:20:02,639
Speaker 3: as your running back. He leads the league with one

461
00:20:02,680 --> 00:20:05,919
Speaker 3: hundred and nineteen carries. And I think this backfield, you know,

462
00:20:05,960 --> 00:20:08,640
Speaker 3: as reliant as it is on Barkley, like it's a

463
00:20:08,680 --> 00:20:11,840
Speaker 3: top three backfield because he's just playing at an elite

464
00:20:11,920 --> 00:20:14,800
Speaker 3: level right now. And I think he has a significant

465
00:20:14,920 --> 00:20:17,920
Speaker 3: edge over the Jags defensive line in the line backing unit.

466
00:20:17,960 --> 00:20:20,400
Speaker 3: And as mediocre as the Giants have been on offense,

467
00:20:20,720 --> 00:20:24,720
Speaker 3: you know, like number eighteen in success rate, number twenty

468
00:20:24,760 --> 00:20:27,280
Speaker 3: one in yards per play, they've actually been pretty good

469
00:20:27,359 --> 00:20:29,760
Speaker 3: running the ball. They're number nine in rush EPA per

470
00:20:29,840 --> 00:20:33,600
Speaker 3: play in their run offense. The Jags run defense has

471
00:20:33,640 --> 00:20:38,320
Speaker 3: just been mediocre, number seventeen in rush EPA. So I

472
00:20:38,359 --> 00:20:41,320
Speaker 3: see this as leaning towards the Giants and how they

473
00:20:41,359 --> 00:20:43,639
Speaker 3: want to play the game. And Barkley, he has a

474
00:20:43,680 --> 00:20:46,919
Speaker 3: shoulder injury, but he practiced on Wednesday, So he's playing

475
00:20:47,200 --> 00:20:50,400
Speaker 3: Andrew Thomas and with an elbow injury, but he practiced.

476
00:20:50,440 --> 00:20:53,400
Speaker 3: He's playing, same with John Feliciano. So those guys are

477
00:20:53,400 --> 00:20:56,760
Speaker 3: dealing with injuries, but they're all gonna play. And if

478
00:20:56,760 --> 00:20:59,960
Speaker 3: we look at the quarterbacks in this game, Like, Okay,

479
00:21:00,119 --> 00:21:02,640
Speaker 3: Daniel Jones, I just I don't think he's that good.

480
00:21:03,000 --> 00:21:06,120
Speaker 3: That said, is there really, at this stage of their

481
00:21:06,119 --> 00:21:09,800
Speaker 3: careers that much of a difference between Daniel Jones and

482
00:21:09,840 --> 00:21:13,119
Speaker 3: Trevor Lawrence? Like I know that there is, but like,

483
00:21:13,320 --> 00:21:17,760
Speaker 3: statistically there's really not. Like they are right next to

484
00:21:17,800 --> 00:21:20,600
Speaker 3: each other. They're eleven and twelve and composite EPA and

485
00:21:20,640 --> 00:21:24,520
Speaker 3: completion percentage over expectation their numbers thirteen and fourteen in

486
00:21:25,240 --> 00:21:31,080
Speaker 3: ESPN QBR. Like they're comparable enough within the confines of

487
00:21:31,080 --> 00:21:33,840
Speaker 3: what they're supposed to do within their offenses. And I

488
00:21:33,840 --> 00:21:36,639
Speaker 3: don't see the Jags as having a home field advantage

489
00:21:36,640 --> 00:21:39,480
Speaker 3: of three points. I think these two teams are pretty even.

490
00:21:39,800 --> 00:21:42,960
Speaker 3: So I'm going with the Giants because I think Barkley

491
00:21:43,040 --> 00:21:45,320
Speaker 3: is going to be able to run effectively enough to

492
00:21:45,320 --> 00:21:48,200
Speaker 3: give them a good chance to cover Ben.

493
00:21:48,240 --> 00:21:50,080
Speaker 1: Any thoughts here, Yeah, I.

494
00:21:50,520 --> 00:21:53,040
Speaker 4: Love it if I know fully thought. Dacossi isn't point

495
00:21:53,040 --> 00:21:55,439
Speaker 4: bully thought. Kossi is the nose for the Jaguars. He

496
00:21:55,520 --> 00:21:57,159
Speaker 4: is out starting at the Eagles game, where I think

497
00:21:57,200 --> 00:21:59,200
Speaker 4: I can cuss, and then the moment he went out

498
00:21:59,240 --> 00:22:01,159
Speaker 4: Eagles started running the ball with im community and then

499
00:22:01,160 --> 00:22:03,359
Speaker 4: they played Houston the next week. He's out Texans are

500
00:22:03,400 --> 00:22:04,879
Speaker 4: running the football then to get the Colts to the

501
00:22:04,920 --> 00:22:07,280
Speaker 4: Colstone count because they were playing Deon Jackson and their

502
00:22:07,359 --> 00:22:09,200
Speaker 4: tire lions terrible. They have to throw the ball fifty

503
00:22:09,200 --> 00:22:11,320
Speaker 4: eight times, but find a posse's he only knows they

504
00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:13,920
Speaker 4: got in that front and Mike Caldos the DC there,

505
00:22:13,960 --> 00:22:16,239
Speaker 4: he came from Tampa. When they go run defense, they

506
00:22:16,240 --> 00:22:18,200
Speaker 4: need to nose. They need a vitavea and they didn't

507
00:22:18,200 --> 00:22:19,960
Speaker 4: have it over the last few weeks. They're hoping to

508
00:22:20,000 --> 00:22:21,679
Speaker 4: get fought to Possi back for this game. I'm not

509
00:22:21,720 --> 00:22:24,400
Speaker 4: sure they do if they don't. I love the spot

510
00:22:24,440 --> 00:22:26,359
Speaker 4: for Barkleys rushing totals, and I like the spot for

511
00:22:26,400 --> 00:22:28,639
Speaker 4: the Giants because that's that's the one matchup they have

512
00:22:28,720 --> 00:22:30,640
Speaker 4: against the Jags. It's a weird line.

513
00:22:30,720 --> 00:22:32,119
Speaker 2: See a five to one team against the two and

514
00:22:32,200 --> 00:22:33,960
Speaker 2: four team, and the two and four team is favorite.

515
00:22:34,080 --> 00:22:37,120
Speaker 4: Dvoa had a great line where the Giants have been

516
00:22:37,359 --> 00:22:39,520
Speaker 4: trailing more in terms of game cloth than any team

517
00:22:39,520 --> 00:22:42,040
Speaker 4: is a winning record, and the Jaguars have been winning

518
00:22:42,080 --> 00:22:43,520
Speaker 4: more in terms of game clock than any team of

519
00:22:43,560 --> 00:22:45,800
Speaker 4: a losing record, so it's a topsy turvy, upside down

520
00:22:45,800 --> 00:22:46,480
Speaker 4: start of the game.

521
00:22:46,920 --> 00:22:48,480
Speaker 2: But if there's no fun of COSSE, I do.

522
00:22:48,520 --> 00:22:51,400
Speaker 4: Like that Giant side in terms of the rushing totals overall, though,

523
00:22:51,480 --> 00:22:53,960
Speaker 4: I took Daniel Jones rushing yards when it opened.

524
00:22:53,960 --> 00:22:56,040
Speaker 2: I took a big and I expected to hit it

525
00:22:56,119 --> 00:22:57,000
Speaker 2: thirty four and a half.

526
00:22:57,560 --> 00:23:00,000
Speaker 4: Jones always runs, but especially runs when you get mancard,

527
00:23:00,320 --> 00:23:01,480
Speaker 4: especially once when you get blitz.

528
00:23:01,920 --> 00:23:03,720
Speaker 2: That's what these Jag Wars want to do. They're above

529
00:23:03,760 --> 00:23:04,560
Speaker 2: average and blitz rate.

530
00:23:04,600 --> 00:23:06,800
Speaker 4: The they're heavy man coverage rate, and when you get

531
00:23:06,800 --> 00:23:08,760
Speaker 4: that sort of a look, it gives the quarterback lanes

532
00:23:08,800 --> 00:23:10,679
Speaker 4: to escape and get a field, and so I like

533
00:23:10,720 --> 00:23:13,119
Speaker 4: the I like the running offense for the Giants in

534
00:23:13,160 --> 00:23:15,640
Speaker 4: this game a lot. I wouldn't feel I don't feel

535
00:23:15,680 --> 00:23:17,800
Speaker 4: too strong about Giants plus three, but there's no flaught

536
00:23:17,840 --> 00:23:19,240
Speaker 4: to COOSTI I think it's the right side.

537
00:23:19,880 --> 00:23:24,359
Speaker 1: Demetrius Harvey on Twitter. He's a reporter Jags reporter for

538
00:23:24,480 --> 00:23:27,040
Speaker 1: Jacks dot Com. He says head coach Doug Peterson says

539
00:23:27,080 --> 00:23:30,719
Speaker 1: that fully fought a Cosi day to day in quotes,

540
00:23:31,040 --> 00:23:33,159
Speaker 1: but he'll be at practice today which was yesterday and

541
00:23:33,200 --> 00:23:36,000
Speaker 1: he was hopeful to have him back this week. And

542
00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:39,879
Speaker 1: also here an interesting stat Jags winning percentage when Photocosi

543
00:23:39,960 --> 00:23:42,960
Speaker 1: plays a whole game zero point six sixty seven. His

544
00:23:43,080 --> 00:23:46,160
Speaker 1: winning percentage when they're winning percentage when he doesn't zero.

545
00:23:47,040 --> 00:23:50,120
Speaker 3: So I imagine he actually plays in this game because

546
00:23:50,119 --> 00:23:53,040
Speaker 3: he did get a limited practice on Wednesday and Thursday.

547
00:23:54,040 --> 00:23:57,160
Speaker 1: That's that's typically a good sign there, guys, real quick,

548
00:23:57,200 --> 00:23:59,359
Speaker 1: I want to talk to you about Sleeper. Sleeper is

549
00:23:59,400 --> 00:24:02,520
Speaker 1: the fastest growing fantasy platform today with millions of players.

550
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551
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Speaker 1: friends and I changed over this year and I absolutely

552
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553
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554
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555
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556
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557
00:24:23,760 --> 00:24:26,400
Speaker 1: a football game or number of points in a basketball game.

558
00:24:26,840 --> 00:24:28,800
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559
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560
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561
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562
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563
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564
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565
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566
00:24:45,520 --> 00:24:48,920
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567
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568
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569
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573
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574
00:25:10,160 --> 00:25:12,560
Speaker 1: So now moving on here to the next game that

575
00:25:12,600 --> 00:25:15,439
Speaker 1: you've got up been the Seahawks and the Chargers, and

576
00:25:15,480 --> 00:25:17,800
Speaker 1: this is another one. You got some good offenses here,

577
00:25:17,800 --> 00:25:20,320
Speaker 1: and the Chargers defense has been especially disappointing for me

578
00:25:20,359 --> 00:25:22,080
Speaker 1: so far this season. I don't feel like they're living

579
00:25:22,200 --> 00:25:24,040
Speaker 1: up to what they were supposed to be. But then again,

580
00:25:24,080 --> 00:25:26,719
Speaker 1: this entire Chargers unit not really doing that right now?

581
00:25:26,760 --> 00:25:27,760
Speaker 1: What are you thinking in this game?

582
00:25:28,080 --> 00:25:31,840
Speaker 4: Yeah, And that's the thing is is I preseason Chargers

583
00:25:31,880 --> 00:25:34,480
Speaker 4: pass defense begainst the Seahawks passing offense. Holy smokes, And

584
00:25:34,560 --> 00:25:37,840
Speaker 4: now we've seen the Seahawks passing offense not just succeed.

585
00:25:37,440 --> 00:25:39,680
Speaker 2: But be relatively batch up proof.

586
00:25:39,720 --> 00:25:41,920
Speaker 4: Obviously not the strongest game that they're coming offense the Cardinals,

587
00:25:41,960 --> 00:25:42,840
Speaker 4: but they never move the football.

588
00:25:42,840 --> 00:25:44,600
Speaker 2: It's just the inability to get into the end zone.

589
00:25:44,640 --> 00:25:45,240
Speaker 2: We just worries.

590
00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:46,960
Speaker 4: So I you're betting a total at at fifty and

591
00:25:46,960 --> 00:25:48,720
Speaker 4: a half, I do like the over you're getting below

592
00:25:48,760 --> 00:25:49,920
Speaker 4: that key number of fifty one.

593
00:25:50,359 --> 00:25:50,840
Speaker 3: No j C.

594
00:25:51,000 --> 00:25:51,320
Speaker 2: Jackson.

595
00:25:51,400 --> 00:25:53,920
Speaker 4: The Chargers are changing and they're kind of the NFP

596
00:25:54,040 --> 00:25:55,399
Speaker 4: more right now. On the defense side of the ball.

597
00:25:55,520 --> 00:25:58,359
Speaker 4: Certainly know Joey Bosa will bring pressure to those rookie

598
00:25:58,400 --> 00:26:00,159
Speaker 4: tackles have been playing. So all still got it with

599
00:26:00,240 --> 00:26:03,000
Speaker 4: Kolil Mack. But this Chargers defense to me is a

600
00:26:03,040 --> 00:26:05,840
Speaker 4: little bit Swiss Cheez. There's some spots in it that

601
00:26:05,880 --> 00:26:08,640
Speaker 4: we didn't expect there to be, Certainly in the outside

602
00:26:08,680 --> 00:26:10,159
Speaker 4: receiver game, which is where it d came back.

603
00:26:10,200 --> 00:26:12,160
Speaker 2: Cap and Tyl Lockett are going to be at their strongest.

604
00:26:12,560 --> 00:26:14,560
Speaker 4: On the other side of the ball, the teams that

605
00:26:14,640 --> 00:26:16,360
Speaker 4: score against the Seahawks are the teams that can run,

606
00:26:17,000 --> 00:26:20,119
Speaker 4: and we obviously you know, usually trust that Cardinals runing game,

607
00:26:20,119 --> 00:26:22,560
Speaker 4: but that Cardinals running game is very like college inspired.

608
00:26:22,600 --> 00:26:24,960
Speaker 4: When teams get heavy with multiple tight ends on the field,

609
00:26:25,000 --> 00:26:26,520
Speaker 4: they get under center and they run the ball. In

610
00:26:26,600 --> 00:26:29,119
Speaker 4: terms of pro styles, they tend to have success against

611
00:26:29,119 --> 00:26:32,600
Speaker 4: the Seahawks rushing defense. That wasn't the Chargers to start

612
00:26:32,680 --> 00:26:34,960
Speaker 4: the year, but recently they've been a lot better. They're

613
00:26:34,960 --> 00:26:37,200
Speaker 4: getting the ball to Austin Academy more. They're not screwing

614
00:26:37,240 --> 00:26:39,320
Speaker 4: around as much as like the full back run wide

615
00:26:39,400 --> 00:26:40,360
Speaker 4: zone and pretend with the San.

616
00:26:40,280 --> 00:26:42,440
Speaker 2: Francisco forty nine ers thing. They're running more power.

617
00:26:42,480 --> 00:26:44,440
Speaker 4: They're actually pulling guys, which is what they're suited to do.

618
00:26:44,760 --> 00:26:46,960
Speaker 4: So since V three they've been ninth and rush EPA

619
00:26:47,080 --> 00:26:49,320
Speaker 4: for play on offense, which we would not have expected

620
00:26:49,359 --> 00:26:50,640
Speaker 4: given how they looked in the start of the season.

621
00:26:50,640 --> 00:26:52,960
Speaker 4: They were gone awful. They're taking away to Sony reps,

622
00:26:53,000 --> 00:26:54,479
Speaker 4: have got a little bit better on the offensive line.

623
00:26:54,480 --> 00:26:56,520
Speaker 4: They're calling better plays, and they're running the ball better,

624
00:26:56,520 --> 00:26:57,960
Speaker 4: so they're gonna be able to stay ahead of the sticks,

625
00:26:58,320 --> 00:26:59,760
Speaker 4: not get stuck in the third and lungs that they

626
00:26:59,760 --> 00:27:01,760
Speaker 4: can't deal with right now, and that's when I think

627
00:27:01,760 --> 00:27:03,200
Speaker 4: allow them to push the ball down the field.

628
00:27:03,240 --> 00:27:05,000
Speaker 2: So I like fifty and a half as a total.

629
00:27:05,040 --> 00:27:07,040
Speaker 4: I think you can get over that with two offenses

630
00:27:07,080 --> 00:27:10,439
Speaker 4: that can be aggressive of throwing the football downfield when

631
00:27:10,440 --> 00:27:12,040
Speaker 4: they get their shots and they're one on ones. They're

632
00:27:12,040 --> 00:27:14,240
Speaker 4: big receivers on the outside, but are both also gonna

633
00:27:14,240 --> 00:27:16,600
Speaker 4: be able to run the football and sustain long drives.

634
00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:19,280
Speaker 3: Report Yeah, Ben, I have I have a follow up

635
00:27:19,400 --> 00:27:23,359
Speaker 3: question on this. So, looking at the total in the

636
00:27:23,480 --> 00:27:25,760
Speaker 3: look ahead market, it was fifty three and a half,

637
00:27:26,240 --> 00:27:29,479
Speaker 3: which is right where I have it projected right now.

638
00:27:29,480 --> 00:27:30,960
Speaker 3: I have it at fifty three point three. So I

639
00:27:31,000 --> 00:27:33,680
Speaker 3: saw that number, I'm like, yes, I'm a genius. Nailed

640
00:27:33,920 --> 00:27:36,600
Speaker 3: like nailed it where it should be the right, you know.

641
00:27:36,760 --> 00:27:40,280
Speaker 3: And then it opens the early line on Sunday night

642
00:27:40,440 --> 00:27:43,199
Speaker 3: is fifty two, and then it dropped to fifty one,

643
00:27:43,480 --> 00:27:45,600
Speaker 3: and then now it's fifty and a half, and I'm like, okay,

644
00:27:45,800 --> 00:27:48,920
Speaker 3: like you know, there's some value here on the other side.

645
00:27:48,960 --> 00:27:51,399
Speaker 3: I'm like, you know what, Like the market is telling

646
00:27:51,480 --> 00:27:55,160
Speaker 3: me something that my like original line might be wrong,

647
00:27:55,600 --> 00:27:58,399
Speaker 3: you know, like it's on my instinct, Like I'm with you,

648
00:27:58,560 --> 00:28:01,720
Speaker 3: like everything you said, I agree with my projection has

649
00:28:01,760 --> 00:28:04,200
Speaker 3: it there. I think there's value to the over. The

650
00:28:04,400 --> 00:28:09,240
Speaker 3: unders have been hitting more in this season, you know,

651
00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:11,600
Speaker 3: and it's a high total. So like, how do you

652
00:28:11,800 --> 00:28:17,440
Speaker 3: reconcile the perspective like the game matchup and seeing what's

653
00:28:17,440 --> 00:28:20,480
Speaker 3: happening on the field with what we've seen in the

654
00:28:20,640 --> 00:28:22,440
Speaker 3: market since last week.

655
00:28:23,160 --> 00:28:26,040
Speaker 4: Yeah, So for me coming from this, like I was

656
00:28:26,040 --> 00:28:28,479
Speaker 4: a football writer, like at an analysis before I ever

657
00:28:28,560 --> 00:28:30,320
Speaker 4: really got into betting, So I never ever came from

658
00:28:30,320 --> 00:28:32,560
Speaker 4: a modeling perspective. So a lot of the times when

659
00:28:32,560 --> 00:28:36,399
Speaker 4: I'm against line movement, it's typically because there's something I

660
00:28:36,520 --> 00:28:39,440
Speaker 4: particularly like in the matchup, right where I'm like, all right,

661
00:28:39,520 --> 00:28:41,440
Speaker 4: like you know, metrics and models.

662
00:28:41,480 --> 00:28:43,240
Speaker 2: The game might not be catching X, Y and Z.

663
00:28:43,600 --> 00:28:45,360
Speaker 4: But when I watch the Seahawks offense, when I watch

664
00:28:45,400 --> 00:28:48,080
Speaker 4: the Chargers defense, whatever it is, I feel like this

665
00:28:48,280 --> 00:28:49,960
Speaker 4: is going to work well for them. And that's where

666
00:28:49,960 --> 00:28:52,520
Speaker 4: I'm at with this Chargers running game against what you're

667
00:28:52,560 --> 00:28:55,800
Speaker 4: gonna get from the Seahawks run defense. The Seahawks defense

668
00:28:56,320 --> 00:28:58,360
Speaker 4: has been really, really rough to start the year, and

669
00:28:58,360 --> 00:29:00,440
Speaker 4: then they have this game against the Cardinals, usually one

670
00:29:00,480 --> 00:29:03,760
Speaker 4: of the highest powered offenses. They're generating turnovers. They changed

671
00:29:03,760 --> 00:29:06,240
Speaker 4: their front round a little bit. They were running other

672
00:29:06,320 --> 00:29:08,280
Speaker 4: fronts to start the season. They put out different stuff

673
00:29:08,280 --> 00:29:10,040
Speaker 4: against the Cardinals and they held them down. It's like,

674
00:29:10,040 --> 00:29:11,280
Speaker 4: all right, maybe the Seahws are going to be a

675
00:29:11,280 --> 00:29:13,160
Speaker 4: little bit more of a low scoring, low total team.

676
00:29:13,680 --> 00:29:15,360
Speaker 4: But when you get down to brass tacks, I think

677
00:29:15,400 --> 00:29:18,280
Speaker 4: that the Chargers are better across the board in terms

678
00:29:18,320 --> 00:29:20,400
Speaker 4: of offensive personnel. And I don't think the Seahawks are

679
00:29:20,440 --> 00:29:22,360
Speaker 4: going to keep the changes they ran against the Cardinals

680
00:29:22,600 --> 00:29:25,080
Speaker 4: against a non divisional opponent, because oftentimes you're building the

681
00:29:25,120 --> 00:29:26,920
Speaker 4: spoke game plans for teams are going to see twice.

682
00:29:27,160 --> 00:29:28,720
Speaker 4: You don't do that as much for teams they kind

683
00:29:28,720 --> 00:29:30,280
Speaker 4: of are just on your schedule in a weekly basis.

684
00:29:30,440 --> 00:29:31,840
Speaker 4: So I want to be surprised to the Seahawks go

685
00:29:31,960 --> 00:29:33,760
Speaker 4: back to the same old fronts they were running, you know,

686
00:29:33,760 --> 00:29:36,080
Speaker 4: go back to the same old leaky run defense that

687
00:29:36,240 --> 00:29:38,040
Speaker 4: lets the Charges stay ahead of the six. And the

688
00:29:38,120 --> 00:29:40,400
Speaker 4: whole Chargers issue on offense is when they get behind

689
00:29:40,440 --> 00:29:42,680
Speaker 4: the sticks because they don't push the ball down the field.

690
00:29:42,680 --> 00:29:44,520
Speaker 4: They only run routes to the six. They drives film

691
00:29:44,560 --> 00:29:47,160
Speaker 4: watchers nuts this Joven Barney offense. So if they can

692
00:29:47,240 --> 00:29:49,160
Speaker 4: run the ball well, the offense is going to work.

693
00:29:49,200 --> 00:29:51,240
Speaker 4: It's when they fall behind the six then they started

694
00:29:51,320 --> 00:29:53,240
Speaker 4: losing points and they get put in these four down positions.

695
00:29:53,480 --> 00:29:55,120
Speaker 4: I like the Chargers rush offense a lot of a

696
00:29:55,200 --> 00:29:57,480
Speaker 4: lot of Eckler overs, and that's what gives me a look.

697
00:29:57,360 --> 00:29:58,240
Speaker 2: At the total of this game.

698
00:29:59,680 --> 00:30:01,240
Speaker 1: I think that makes a ton of sense to me.

699
00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:03,600
Speaker 1: I like the sound of it as well. But Matt,

700
00:30:03,720 --> 00:30:05,080
Speaker 1: you know, and I don't really like the sound of

701
00:30:05,160 --> 00:30:08,040
Speaker 1: link seven points on the road. Here are you gonna

702
00:30:08,040 --> 00:30:12,560
Speaker 1: do that with the Dolphins versus the quarterback to be determined? Steelers?

703
00:30:12,600 --> 00:30:14,640
Speaker 1: Where are you going here? Steelers coming off that big win?

704
00:30:15,120 --> 00:30:16,320
Speaker 3: Dolphins are at home?

705
00:30:16,600 --> 00:30:16,760
Speaker 2: Right?

706
00:30:16,960 --> 00:30:20,680
Speaker 3: Correct me if I if I'm wrong here, If wrong,

707
00:30:20,800 --> 00:30:21,280
Speaker 3: I would.

708
00:30:21,120 --> 00:30:23,040
Speaker 1: Be that would be me wrong. For some reason, I

709
00:30:23,160 --> 00:30:25,960
Speaker 1: have I have Dolphins at Steelers on my rundown.

710
00:30:25,640 --> 00:30:29,960
Speaker 3: Here, Dolphins Dolphins at home. Yeah, seven is the number.

711
00:30:30,640 --> 00:30:32,960
Speaker 3: And I do like them in the spot like I feel,

712
00:30:33,280 --> 00:30:35,680
Speaker 3: And I would like to get Ben's thoughts on this, because,

713
00:30:35,720 --> 00:30:38,440
Speaker 3: like Ben is, as you said, like football rider much

714
00:30:38,680 --> 00:30:43,880
Speaker 3: more knowledgeable about like the the intricacies of the schemes, right,

715
00:30:44,680 --> 00:30:47,360
Speaker 3: it's all may Yeah, Well, I assure you you're more

716
00:30:47,480 --> 00:30:50,280
Speaker 3: knowledgeable than I am. But you know, I'd like to

717
00:30:50,320 --> 00:30:53,200
Speaker 3: get your thoughts on on Tua in this spot because

718
00:30:54,040 --> 00:30:56,600
Speaker 3: I think what we've seen out of Tua is real

719
00:30:57,160 --> 00:31:01,640
Speaker 3: this season, and I think if that is the case,

720
00:31:02,320 --> 00:31:06,280
Speaker 3: this line is really wrong. Like I don't want to

721
00:31:06,320 --> 00:31:09,720
Speaker 3: say where I had it projected, kind of given the

722
00:31:09,800 --> 00:31:11,720
Speaker 3: assumptions that I had of like, Okay, this is the

723
00:31:11,760 --> 00:31:16,040
Speaker 3: difference between Tua and the backup quarterbacks that we've seen,

724
00:31:16,240 --> 00:31:20,520
Speaker 3: because it is was way higher than minus seven. So

725
00:31:20,840 --> 00:31:23,680
Speaker 3: there's a very good chance that I'm wrong, But I

726
00:31:23,760 --> 00:31:29,160
Speaker 3: think Tua is I think he's been underappreciated. So he's

727
00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:34,240
Speaker 3: coming back, right, He's been cleared, he's practicing fully. Man.

728
00:31:34,400 --> 00:31:36,920
Speaker 3: The Dolphins, they've had a top ten pass offense this year,

729
00:31:37,000 --> 00:31:40,080
Speaker 3: and that was with Bridgewater and Skyler Thompson playing most

730
00:31:40,160 --> 00:31:41,400
Speaker 3: of the past three weeks.

731
00:31:42,080 --> 00:31:42,240
Speaker 2: Uh.

732
00:31:42,520 --> 00:31:45,240
Speaker 3: And it's nothing against Bridgewater and Thompson, but they are

733
00:31:45,480 --> 00:31:49,000
Speaker 3: not Tua, who is number one this year in ESPN,

734
00:31:49,680 --> 00:31:53,000
Speaker 3: QBR number one and adjusted yards per attempt and number

735
00:31:53,040 --> 00:31:57,400
Speaker 3: two and EPA and completion percentage over expectation. Now, granted

736
00:31:57,440 --> 00:32:00,920
Speaker 3: that happened in only like three three and some change,

737
00:32:01,440 --> 00:32:03,880
Speaker 3: but you know, just do the head to head comparison

738
00:32:04,160 --> 00:32:09,680
Speaker 3: between Tua and Teddy Bridgewater and Skyler Thompson. Sixty nine

739
00:32:09,720 --> 00:32:12,720
Speaker 3: point six percent completion rate for him, fifty nine point

740
00:32:12,800 --> 00:32:15,440
Speaker 3: four percent completion rate for those guys, nine point two

741
00:32:15,480 --> 00:32:19,040
Speaker 3: adjusted yards per attempt for Teddy six point two, nine

742
00:32:19,080 --> 00:32:21,560
Speaker 3: point two to six point two. That is a massive

743
00:32:21,880 --> 00:32:25,560
Speaker 3: gap in adjusted yards per attempt. A seven percent touchdown

744
00:32:25,640 --> 00:32:29,040
Speaker 3: rate for Tua two point eight percent touchdown rate for

745
00:32:29,160 --> 00:32:32,760
Speaker 3: Bridgewater and Thompson two point six percent, interception rate, three

746
00:32:32,840 --> 00:32:36,280
Speaker 3: point eight percent interception rate, and then the sack rate

747
00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:41,080
Speaker 3: five percent, sack rate for for Tua seven point eight percent.

748
00:32:41,520 --> 00:32:45,960
Speaker 3: So I think there's a pretty big difference between Tua

749
00:32:46,440 --> 00:32:48,800
Speaker 3: and the guys who are backing him up. And like, sure,

750
00:32:48,880 --> 00:32:52,640
Speaker 3: you can say what we've seen out of Tua this

751
00:32:52,840 --> 00:32:55,680
Speaker 3: year has more to do with the scheme, more to

752
00:32:55,760 --> 00:32:57,640
Speaker 3: do with the head coach, Mike McDaniel, and more to

753
00:32:57,720 --> 00:33:00,920
Speaker 3: do with the playmakers around him than with any innate

754
00:33:01,040 --> 00:33:04,280
Speaker 3: talent he has. Well, Like, that's fine, if that's the

755
00:33:04,360 --> 00:33:07,959
Speaker 3: perspective that you have, but like we've still seen him

756
00:33:08,040 --> 00:33:12,560
Speaker 3: do well versus other guys not do well within that system.

757
00:33:12,720 --> 00:33:16,240
Speaker 3: And I'll just say, like, given everything we know about

758
00:33:16,280 --> 00:33:19,040
Speaker 3: Tua up to this point, I think we should take

759
00:33:19,160 --> 00:33:24,440
Speaker 3: his outperformance this year at something close to face value.

760
00:33:24,720 --> 00:33:27,480
Speaker 3: He was the number one quarterback in his recruitment class.

761
00:33:27,840 --> 00:33:31,200
Speaker 3: He had a come from behind off the bench championship

762
00:33:31,240 --> 00:33:34,560
Speaker 3: at Alabama against Georgia as a true freshman. He was

763
00:33:34,640 --> 00:33:36,920
Speaker 3: one of the best college quarterbacks we've ever seen. He

764
00:33:37,040 --> 00:33:39,720
Speaker 3: was selected number five overall, and he fell that far

765
00:33:40,200 --> 00:33:44,400
Speaker 3: only because of a catastrophic and career threatening hip injury, right,

766
00:33:44,480 --> 00:33:47,800
Speaker 3: and then he had I would say understandably an uneven

767
00:33:47,960 --> 00:33:51,040
Speaker 3: adjustment period to the NFL in his first two seasons

768
00:33:51,320 --> 00:33:55,920
Speaker 3: as he recovered from that injury and navigated offensive coordinator

769
00:33:56,040 --> 00:33:59,040
Speaker 3: incompetence and rollover in Miami.

770
00:33:59,040 --> 00:34:01,440
Speaker 2: At least three of coordinator approach last year.

771
00:34:02,440 --> 00:34:06,360
Speaker 3: No, No, imagine having more offensive coordinators than number of

772
00:34:06,520 --> 00:34:10,560
Speaker 3: seasons you've been in the league. That's that's nearly unfathomable. So, like,

773
00:34:10,680 --> 00:34:14,000
Speaker 3: based on all of that information, I think it's fair

774
00:34:14,120 --> 00:34:16,759
Speaker 3: to say what we've seen out of Tua, like he's

775
00:34:16,840 --> 00:34:19,600
Speaker 3: probably not the best quarterback in the league, but like

776
00:34:19,880 --> 00:34:22,520
Speaker 3: the level that he has played at is something that

777
00:34:23,080 --> 00:34:26,600
Speaker 3: is like within the realm of reality for what we

778
00:34:26,640 --> 00:34:30,680
Speaker 3: should expect for him moving forward. The Dolphins offense twenty

779
00:34:30,760 --> 00:34:33,879
Speaker 3: seven point seven points per game in weeks one through three,

780
00:34:34,040 --> 00:34:37,320
Speaker 3: sixteen points per game in weeks four through six, like

781
00:34:37,960 --> 00:34:40,360
Speaker 3: three to zero against the spread with Tua zero and

782
00:34:40,440 --> 00:34:44,360
Speaker 3: three and against the spread in the most three recent

783
00:34:44,600 --> 00:34:47,319
Speaker 3: recent weeks. So like, I'm just I am very much

784
00:34:47,480 --> 00:34:50,840
Speaker 3: on the idea that Tua matters more to the spread

785
00:34:51,239 --> 00:34:54,600
Speaker 3: than what has been baked into the spread at this point.

786
00:34:54,760 --> 00:34:57,759
Speaker 3: So I think seven is too low. And then last

787
00:34:57,760 --> 00:35:00,600
Speaker 3: week the Steelers they were without four starters and secondary

788
00:35:01,280 --> 00:35:03,600
Speaker 3: Even if all of those guys return this week, they're

789
00:35:03,600 --> 00:35:05,719
Speaker 3: still not going to be at full health at full health.

790
00:35:05,840 --> 00:35:07,920
Speaker 3: And of course, you know you have all pred all

791
00:35:07,960 --> 00:35:11,680
Speaker 3: pro edge rusher to j Watt and you know Larry

792
00:35:11,760 --> 00:35:15,759
Speaker 3: Ogunjobi on the defensive line who also is uncertain in

793
00:35:15,840 --> 00:35:18,480
Speaker 3: his health. So I don't know, I know, seven is

794
00:35:18,520 --> 00:35:21,800
Speaker 3: a lot, but man, I just I think that this

795
00:35:22,040 --> 00:35:26,160
Speaker 3: is a line that is is too low relative to

796
00:35:26,480 --> 00:35:28,600
Speaker 3: what we saw out of Tua in this offense in

797
00:35:28,680 --> 00:35:29,560
Speaker 3: weeks one through three.

798
00:35:29,960 --> 00:35:32,440
Speaker 2: Yeah, So I was surprised to say Dolphins minus even right.

799
00:35:32,440 --> 00:35:33,360
Speaker 2: I thought it would be bigger.

800
00:35:34,160 --> 00:35:37,000
Speaker 4: As a man who bet Bucks minus a very heavily,

801
00:35:37,160 --> 00:35:40,040
Speaker 4: and that bet Bucks live lines also heavily.

802
00:35:40,120 --> 00:35:41,440
Speaker 2: I'm not loving big.

803
00:35:41,400 --> 00:35:43,880
Speaker 4: Spreads against the Steelers right now, but I was surprised

804
00:35:43,880 --> 00:35:46,279
Speaker 4: to see the size of that line. There's one point

805
00:35:46,360 --> 00:35:49,680
Speaker 4: five things that give me pause. The figure point about

806
00:35:49,800 --> 00:35:52,640
Speaker 4: Tua and what he brings to the schemers, what scheme

807
00:35:52,719 --> 00:35:55,160
Speaker 4: the scheme brings in is extremely well taken. You said,

808
00:35:55,200 --> 00:35:57,319
Speaker 4: you know, maybe this is more about the scheme than

809
00:35:57,360 --> 00:36:00,960
Speaker 4: it has any particular talent than Tua has. That's half true, right,

810
00:36:01,080 --> 00:36:02,640
Speaker 4: Like this is a really really good offense.

811
00:36:02,680 --> 00:36:04,680
Speaker 2: Mike Daniel's a great designer. Like this is you know,

812
00:36:04,760 --> 00:36:06,880
Speaker 2: this is the offense, Gujore, This is what people are running.

813
00:36:07,200 --> 00:36:09,240
Speaker 4: But if you want to run a yack oriented offense,

814
00:36:09,600 --> 00:36:11,880
Speaker 4: you've got to have a really accurate quarterback. And for

815
00:36:12,239 --> 00:36:15,080
Speaker 4: all of his limits arm strength wise, height wise, the

816
00:36:15,360 --> 00:36:17,840
Speaker 4: ability to play out of structure, especially post hip injury,

817
00:36:17,920 --> 00:36:20,640
Speaker 4: all of which have been limiting factors for Tua, he

818
00:36:20,760 --> 00:36:24,920
Speaker 4: throws an extremely accurate football. Ball placement is so important

819
00:36:24,960 --> 00:36:26,759
Speaker 4: in yak offense. Is if you hit a guy out

820
00:36:26,800 --> 00:36:28,960
Speaker 4: of stride, still catchable, but it's on the wrong shoulders.

821
00:36:29,000 --> 00:36:29,560
Speaker 2: Out of stride.

822
00:36:29,840 --> 00:36:32,279
Speaker 4: He's tackled for a twelve yard game, you hit him

823
00:36:32,280 --> 00:36:34,239
Speaker 4: in stride, especially when it's Jalen Wattle speed or Tyree

824
00:36:34,320 --> 00:36:37,080
Speaker 4: Hill speed. We saw that one of question against Patriots gone,

825
00:36:37,280 --> 00:36:40,000
Speaker 4: that's ball placement. That's why that play worked. And other

826
00:36:40,120 --> 00:36:43,000
Speaker 4: quarterbacks who made this offense successful haven't been that accurate,

827
00:36:43,040 --> 00:36:45,520
Speaker 4: like Jimmy is not that accurate. Kirk is not that

828
00:36:45,840 --> 00:36:49,000
Speaker 4: pinpoint accurate. So Tool brings that and that helps the offense.

829
00:36:49,880 --> 00:36:52,920
Speaker 4: What was really impressive about this offense was we thought

830
00:36:53,000 --> 00:36:54,719
Speaker 4: last year when they're running all the RPO stuff, you

831
00:36:54,760 --> 00:36:55,759
Speaker 4: were like, yeah, this is what you do with an

832
00:36:55,800 --> 00:36:57,719
Speaker 4: accurate week arm quarterback. You run the RPO sow he

833
00:36:57,760 --> 00:37:00,400
Speaker 4: throws the tight windows and then whatever they got him

834
00:37:00,480 --> 00:37:01,960
Speaker 4: going deep down the field. They're not just going the

835
00:37:02,040 --> 00:37:04,279
Speaker 4: ARPBEO stuff. They're runing play action boots stuff, keep guys

836
00:37:04,640 --> 00:37:06,959
Speaker 4: to protect. And then two is being accurate fifteen yards,

837
00:37:07,000 --> 00:37:09,120
Speaker 4: twenty yards, twenty five yards. And then certainly when he

838
00:37:09,160 --> 00:37:10,759
Speaker 4: goes to the downhill stuff, it's not super accurate, but

839
00:37:10,800 --> 00:37:12,640
Speaker 4: that fifteen to twenty yard range throw him with a

840
00:37:12,680 --> 00:37:15,239
Speaker 4: lot of accuracy. That's yeah, with fifteen yards of a dot,

841
00:37:15,280 --> 00:37:17,239
Speaker 4: that's unbelievable. Nobody else gets that in league, and they

842
00:37:17,239 --> 00:37:19,360
Speaker 4: don't get it with waddle and hill speed. It's great

843
00:37:20,040 --> 00:37:22,520
Speaker 4: the exchange the cost. And this is what worries me

844
00:37:22,600 --> 00:37:24,239
Speaker 4: for the Steelers game is if you're going to run

845
00:37:24,600 --> 00:37:27,400
Speaker 4: the deep play action stuff instead of the RBO stuff,

846
00:37:27,719 --> 00:37:28,239
Speaker 4: two has.

847
00:37:28,160 --> 00:37:28,839
Speaker 2: To hold the ball.

848
00:37:29,120 --> 00:37:30,920
Speaker 4: Two has to wait in the pocket, and as we've

849
00:37:30,920 --> 00:37:33,160
Speaker 4: seen through three weeks, two has to get hit. And

850
00:37:33,239 --> 00:37:36,160
Speaker 4: the number one thing to ask about the Dolphins right

851
00:37:36,239 --> 00:37:39,040
Speaker 4: now is how comfortable are they going to be running

852
00:37:39,080 --> 00:37:40,640
Speaker 4: the offense they ran with two of the first three

853
00:37:40,640 --> 00:37:43,040
Speaker 4: weeks of the season, given the Concussionci's taken.

854
00:37:43,239 --> 00:37:44,799
Speaker 2: How willing are they going to be to subject him

855
00:37:44,800 --> 00:37:46,240
Speaker 2: to hits? Because the way they play.

856
00:37:46,080 --> 00:37:48,480
Speaker 4: Offense assumes their quarterback is going to be able to

857
00:37:48,520 --> 00:37:50,080
Speaker 4: think shots. He has to hold onto the ball for

858
00:37:50,160 --> 00:37:51,799
Speaker 4: a while. And they have a bad offensive line.

859
00:37:51,840 --> 00:37:53,480
Speaker 2: They try to add guys to pass protection, but there's

860
00:37:53,480 --> 00:37:54,680
Speaker 2: alway somebody who's going to lead through.

861
00:37:54,920 --> 00:37:57,120
Speaker 4: That's the nature of this offense. So that's the one

862
00:37:57,160 --> 00:38:00,800
Speaker 4: thing that worries made. The point five is three weeks awesome.

863
00:38:00,880 --> 00:38:03,320
Speaker 4: It's a small sample and usually about four weeks is

864
00:38:03,360 --> 00:38:05,000
Speaker 4: where I say, okay, if this can last more than

865
00:38:05,080 --> 00:38:08,400
Speaker 4: four weeks, I believe in the in the fact that

866
00:38:08,440 --> 00:38:10,120
Speaker 4: the film has been seen by defense coordinators and they

867
00:38:10,120 --> 00:38:12,000
Speaker 4: still haven't answered it. I've only got three weeks and

868
00:38:12,040 --> 00:38:14,080
Speaker 4: two of film, so I'm curious to see. Like Mike

869
00:38:14,120 --> 00:38:15,800
Speaker 4: Tomlin tends to be really, really good in terms of

870
00:38:15,840 --> 00:38:18,560
Speaker 4: bespoke game plans, game plans to stop one certain offense.

871
00:38:18,920 --> 00:38:20,959
Speaker 2: Very interested to see what this looks like. So I pause.

872
00:38:21,040 --> 00:38:23,480
Speaker 2: I'm not taking dove with mine seven right now, but

873
00:38:23,600 --> 00:38:24,040
Speaker 2: it is an.

874
00:38:24,000 --> 00:38:25,840
Speaker 4: Island game, and so you may find me tention in

875
00:38:25,920 --> 00:38:27,400
Speaker 4: allow you a couple of minutes before kickoff.

876
00:38:28,400 --> 00:38:29,919
Speaker 2: The big question for me is the hits.

877
00:38:30,040 --> 00:38:32,120
Speaker 4: If they're not willing to let it get hit the

878
00:38:32,200 --> 00:38:33,960
Speaker 4: way they were a month ago, they can't win the

879
00:38:34,000 --> 00:38:35,359
Speaker 4: offense they were running a month ago.

880
00:38:35,520 --> 00:38:36,640
Speaker 2: That's what's this in jenery.

881
00:38:37,840 --> 00:38:39,880
Speaker 1: Guys, football season is here, and if you want to

882
00:38:39,880 --> 00:38:42,600
Speaker 1: get in on the action, we recommend heading on over

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00:39:01,040 --> 00:39:04,000
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890
00:39:04,040 --> 00:39:06,480
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891
00:39:06,560 --> 00:39:10,080
Speaker 1: the action today, guys, enjoy the football season, and let's

892
00:39:10,120 --> 00:39:14,160
Speaker 1: cash some tickets together. Now back to the show. Now,

893
00:39:14,320 --> 00:39:18,280
Speaker 1: how about here the Falcons going up against the Bengals.

894
00:39:18,320 --> 00:39:20,680
Speaker 1: The Bengals obviously that slow start to the season, but

895
00:39:21,160 --> 00:39:24,600
Speaker 1: all of a sudden they've been very much back in gear. Here. Meanwhile,

896
00:39:24,600 --> 00:39:26,920
Speaker 1: the Falcons the only undefeated team against the spread so

897
00:39:27,000 --> 00:39:29,239
Speaker 1: far this season. And it's really because they keep giving

898
00:39:29,360 --> 00:39:32,080
Speaker 1: us these touchdown or greater spreads. And it's six and

899
00:39:32,160 --> 00:39:36,200
Speaker 1: a half in this game here. I as bad as

900
00:39:36,280 --> 00:39:38,360
Speaker 1: this offense looks, sometimes I can still trust them to

901
00:39:38,400 --> 00:39:39,200
Speaker 1: cover these numbers.

902
00:39:39,280 --> 00:39:41,160
Speaker 2: Why yeah, So that's the thing is.

903
00:39:41,160 --> 00:39:44,400
Speaker 4: Like, offense isn't pretty in terms of like efficiency and

904
00:39:44,440 --> 00:39:47,360
Speaker 4: passing or whatever, but this is a good, cool offense.

905
00:39:47,600 --> 00:39:50,440
Speaker 4: The way the Falcons run offense is a way that

906
00:39:50,680 --> 00:39:53,480
Speaker 4: very few, if any teams weren't even a remotely amalagains offense.

907
00:39:53,600 --> 00:39:55,600
Speaker 4: You're not getting two full backs on the field, you know,

908
00:39:55,760 --> 00:39:57,680
Speaker 4: running pistol diamonds, you know readoption.

909
00:39:58,000 --> 00:39:58,880
Speaker 2: Nobody else is doing this.

910
00:39:59,200 --> 00:40:01,080
Speaker 4: I mean that means that it forces you to prepare

911
00:40:01,160 --> 00:40:02,839
Speaker 4: on a week, right forced you prepare in a week

912
00:40:02,880 --> 00:40:05,480
Speaker 4: for something you haven't really prepped for, even like the

913
00:40:05,560 --> 00:40:07,640
Speaker 4: Bengals being in the division with the Ravens and kind

914
00:40:07,680 --> 00:40:10,680
Speaker 4: of sometimes seeing similar stuff still isn't that's analogous because

915
00:40:10,680 --> 00:40:13,120
Speaker 4: the Ravens are run as downhill, as physical.

916
00:40:12,840 --> 00:40:15,480
Speaker 2: Actually as big a backs as what the Falcons are doing.

917
00:40:15,760 --> 00:40:19,880
Speaker 4: And this Bengals run defense has been suspect since losing

918
00:40:19,960 --> 00:40:20,840
Speaker 4: DJ Reader.

919
00:40:20,600 --> 00:40:23,000
Speaker 2: Their nose tackle into world of their run defense.

920
00:40:23,160 --> 00:40:26,120
Speaker 4: They've been bottom ten and rushipa per play allowed since

921
00:40:26,200 --> 00:40:26,800
Speaker 4: losing Reader.

922
00:40:26,920 --> 00:40:29,360
Speaker 2: And also they now have perhaps lost Logan Wilson.

923
00:40:29,400 --> 00:40:31,480
Speaker 4: They've been a linebacker who they're kind of like saying

924
00:40:31,600 --> 00:40:34,319
Speaker 4: is day to day, but also sustained a pretty major injury.

925
00:40:34,360 --> 00:40:35,399
Speaker 2: If you played in would be nuts.

926
00:40:35,560 --> 00:40:37,320
Speaker 4: That's the core of your run defense right there. And

927
00:40:37,480 --> 00:40:38,880
Speaker 4: if the Falcons beat you, they beat you. Run on

928
00:40:38,920 --> 00:40:41,120
Speaker 4: the football. This is a very very effective running game

929
00:40:41,120 --> 00:40:42,439
Speaker 4: to third in the league right now in like Tobe

930
00:40:42,520 --> 00:40:44,400
Speaker 4: rushing yards. They're second of the last three weeks in

931
00:40:44,440 --> 00:40:47,680
Speaker 4: Rushia paper play like, this is a trustworthy group. So

932
00:40:47,680 --> 00:40:50,320
Speaker 4: there's that big mismatch there that, to me, lets this

933
00:40:50,520 --> 00:40:52,640
Speaker 4: thing hang within a touchdown, less this thing hang within

934
00:40:52,719 --> 00:40:53,080
Speaker 4: a score.

935
00:40:53,440 --> 00:40:53,920
Speaker 3: The other.

936
00:40:55,480 --> 00:40:57,719
Speaker 2: Question mark that I have about the Bengals that really

937
00:40:57,760 --> 00:40:59,960
Speaker 2: brings me into this game is that the Bengals are

938
00:41:00,120 --> 00:41:02,200
Speaker 2: trying to fix this offense. Right, they kind of had

939
00:41:02,239 --> 00:41:03,839
Speaker 2: this this issue to go in her center.

940
00:41:03,920 --> 00:41:05,520
Speaker 4: They run, it doesn't work, and they go shotgun and

941
00:41:05,520 --> 00:41:07,480
Speaker 4: they get too high and whatever, and they're trying to

942
00:41:07,560 --> 00:41:08,719
Speaker 4: run this RPO.

943
00:41:08,480 --> 00:41:11,560
Speaker 2: Game, and that's good. It's it's it's an okay solution.

944
00:41:11,680 --> 00:41:12,480
Speaker 2: It's not perfect.

945
00:41:12,800 --> 00:41:15,480
Speaker 4: It's hard to run an RPO against zone blitz defenses

946
00:41:15,520 --> 00:41:17,640
Speaker 4: because zone blitz defense has changed changed the picture on

947
00:41:17,719 --> 00:41:19,520
Speaker 4: your post snap, like all right, I'm gonna read this

948
00:41:19,600 --> 00:41:20,840
Speaker 4: one guy and all of a sudden, that guy's not

949
00:41:20,880 --> 00:41:23,320
Speaker 4: there anymore. That's what DMPs does. This is a confusion

950
00:41:23,400 --> 00:41:25,840
Speaker 4: based defense who's hard to run the RPO against. So

951
00:41:25,840 --> 00:41:28,120
Speaker 4: if they try to go RPO, you can see turnovers,

952
00:41:28,160 --> 00:41:30,279
Speaker 4: you can see mishandled snaps, you can see sacks in

953
00:41:30,320 --> 00:41:32,719
Speaker 4: the backfield, I think this Bengals offense runs into some

954
00:41:32,760 --> 00:41:35,480
Speaker 4: issues against lay the Falcons play, especially if Ajterrell is

955
00:41:35,480 --> 00:41:37,440
Speaker 4: available to a race to Mark Chase, because Trell is

956
00:41:37,440 --> 00:41:38,040
Speaker 4: that talented.

957
00:41:38,440 --> 00:41:40,520
Speaker 2: I like the Falcons plus this point five, Give me

958
00:41:40,640 --> 00:41:41,759
Speaker 2: Terrell healthy and I'll take it.

959
00:41:42,280 --> 00:41:44,600
Speaker 1: Are you following it? Are you falling bent on this one? Matt?

960
00:41:45,600 --> 00:41:45,680
Speaker 2: Uh?

961
00:41:45,760 --> 00:41:47,680
Speaker 3: Yeah, I have I have this at five point five,

962
00:41:47,920 --> 00:41:50,319
Speaker 3: So yeah, it's six and a half. I do think

963
00:41:50,360 --> 00:41:53,120
Speaker 3: that there's value going through six, which isn't like a

964
00:41:53,320 --> 00:41:57,280
Speaker 3: huge key number, but in today's NFL, especially with lower totals,

965
00:41:57,480 --> 00:42:01,000
Speaker 3: is it's key enough. So yeah, I do think that

966
00:42:01,040 --> 00:42:02,200
Speaker 3: there's value in Alta.

967
00:42:03,000 --> 00:42:04,480
Speaker 1: Now, one more game that I want to ask you

968
00:42:04,560 --> 00:42:05,040
Speaker 1: guys about.

969
00:42:05,120 --> 00:42:05,279
Speaker 3: Ben.

970
00:42:05,360 --> 00:42:07,960
Speaker 1: It's on that board there behind you, Chiefs and forty

971
00:42:08,080 --> 00:42:10,640
Speaker 1: nine ers here the Chiefs laying two and a half.

972
00:42:11,080 --> 00:42:13,200
Speaker 1: I got it when it was three because I thought

973
00:42:13,239 --> 00:42:15,200
Speaker 1: that this number would go the opposite way, so the

974
00:42:15,280 --> 00:42:18,320
Speaker 1: market I missed out on the market here. But what

975
00:42:18,480 --> 00:42:21,960
Speaker 1: are you thinking in terms of this game? Because I'm

976
00:42:22,000 --> 00:42:25,320
Speaker 1: seeing people on Twitter. I get the Vegas values the Niners.

977
00:42:25,840 --> 00:42:27,919
Speaker 1: I am very low on the Niners, and I feel

978
00:42:27,960 --> 00:42:29,399
Speaker 1: like this is one of those games that the Chiefs

979
00:42:29,480 --> 00:42:31,600
Speaker 1: just role. I'm looking at some alternate spreads in this one.

980
00:42:31,719 --> 00:42:33,480
Speaker 2: Yeah. I love the Niners and the Niners are a

981
00:42:33,480 --> 00:42:35,600
Speaker 2: great team. I love why they play football. I don't

982
00:42:35,600 --> 00:42:37,640
Speaker 2: think I could I could list all of the names

983
00:42:37,680 --> 00:42:39,640
Speaker 2: they have on the Andrew Report on one breath like that.

984
00:42:40,000 --> 00:42:42,480
Speaker 4: That's where we're at right now, is this look at

985
00:42:42,560 --> 00:42:43,920
Speaker 4: line was one and a half and then they got

986
00:42:43,960 --> 00:42:46,720
Speaker 4: even more banged up on their most recent game against Atlanta,

987
00:42:46,800 --> 00:42:48,320
Speaker 4: right which we saw kind of the way that Atlanta

988
00:42:48,440 --> 00:42:50,000
Speaker 4: I was able to run the football on this team

989
00:42:50,040 --> 00:42:52,400
Speaker 4: because the entire defensive line was in that game. Nick

990
00:42:52,480 --> 00:42:55,600
Speaker 4: both some research, Davon Kim laugh, Eric Armstead right, Samson

991
00:42:55,600 --> 00:42:58,680
Speaker 4: ebucom the Drake Jackson the USK because that's.

992
00:42:58,560 --> 00:42:59,399
Speaker 2: Just the defensive line.

993
00:43:00,080 --> 00:43:01,960
Speaker 4: Really, really big thing that concerns me, though, is no

994
00:43:02,120 --> 00:43:03,520
Speaker 4: manual mods that he's out for the year.

995
00:43:03,920 --> 00:43:05,680
Speaker 2: Tryvarious Ward right now is on defence.

996
00:43:05,680 --> 00:43:07,600
Speaker 4: I'm pretty sure he got a limited practice in Thursday

997
00:43:07,600 --> 00:43:10,719
Speaker 4: at Memory Service. But if you want to beat this

998
00:43:10,880 --> 00:43:12,920
Speaker 4: Chiefs team right now, you man up on the outside.

999
00:43:12,920 --> 00:43:15,160
Speaker 4: Because their wide receiver talent isn't what it used to be.

1000
00:43:15,760 --> 00:43:19,000
Speaker 4: The Niners were already weak at corner if they're bringing

1001
00:43:19,080 --> 00:43:21,600
Speaker 4: Jason Barrett back for his first game this season and

1002
00:43:21,680 --> 00:43:23,839
Speaker 4: then running a gid pe Tarvarius Ward out there, I'm

1003
00:43:23,880 --> 00:43:25,560
Speaker 4: not confident in their ability to man off now with

1004
00:43:25,600 --> 00:43:26,960
Speaker 4: Patrick Mahomes playing quarterback.

1005
00:43:27,160 --> 00:43:28,680
Speaker 2: So you're going to try to run your quarter stuff.

1006
00:43:28,680 --> 00:43:30,000
Speaker 4: You're gonna try to do what they always do, just

1007
00:43:30,120 --> 00:43:33,520
Speaker 4: rush with four generate pressure and plays one behind. Rush

1008
00:43:33,600 --> 00:43:37,239
Speaker 4: with four against Mahomes sometimes works, but usually you have

1009
00:43:37,320 --> 00:43:38,920
Speaker 4: to have all your stars, and they ain't got none

1010
00:43:38,920 --> 00:43:39,400
Speaker 4: of them right now.

1011
00:43:39,440 --> 00:43:42,280
Speaker 2: But horses aren't there in the bullpen. So this defense

1012
00:43:42,400 --> 00:43:44,279
Speaker 2: is so, so so good. I love this defense. I

1013
00:43:44,320 --> 00:43:46,680
Speaker 2: love betting on this defense, not when most of it

1014
00:43:46,800 --> 00:43:49,080
Speaker 2: is missing. It's just to me, the injury attrition is too.

1015
00:43:49,080 --> 00:43:52,040
Speaker 1: Much for this to be under I'm feeling good about

1016
00:43:52,080 --> 00:43:54,000
Speaker 1: this game. I bet at earlier at the wrong line,

1017
00:43:54,080 --> 00:43:56,400
Speaker 1: but it is what it is. Matt, what about you?

1018
00:43:58,040 --> 00:44:00,359
Speaker 3: Yeah, I do have this at two and a half.

1019
00:44:00,600 --> 00:44:03,160
Speaker 3: But you know, I know I need to make adjustments

1020
00:44:03,400 --> 00:44:06,000
Speaker 3: as we get more information on the injury reports, and

1021
00:44:06,080 --> 00:44:10,239
Speaker 3: so I always make assumptions when I'm setting my early

1022
00:44:10,360 --> 00:44:13,040
Speaker 3: projections about who will be injured and who won't be

1023
00:44:13,160 --> 00:44:15,719
Speaker 3: And so I know I'm gonna need to adjust that.

1024
00:44:15,800 --> 00:44:18,279
Speaker 3: But one thing I will say that gives me a

1025
00:44:18,640 --> 00:44:22,320
Speaker 3: little bit of encouragement that we do have Jimmy Ward

1026
00:44:22,440 --> 00:44:26,200
Speaker 3: who practiced limitedly on Wednesday, so his return to the

1027
00:44:26,280 --> 00:44:29,320
Speaker 3: secondary is big. And we have Trent Williams who practiced

1028
00:44:29,360 --> 00:44:32,000
Speaker 3: on a limited basis on Wednesday as well. So if

1029
00:44:32,120 --> 00:44:35,440
Speaker 3: Williams returns, I think that makes a pretty significant difference

1030
00:44:35,480 --> 00:44:38,560
Speaker 3: to the offensive line. So that, you know, gives me

1031
00:44:38,719 --> 00:44:40,600
Speaker 3: a little bit of hope there for the forty nine ers.

1032
00:44:40,680 --> 00:44:43,040
Speaker 3: But you know that said, I have this projected exactly

1033
00:44:43,080 --> 00:44:45,400
Speaker 3: at two and a half right now, and even with

1034
00:44:45,520 --> 00:44:47,200
Speaker 3: some of the adjustments I make, I don't think I'm

1035
00:44:47,239 --> 00:44:49,120
Speaker 3: gonna get all that far from that line.

1036
00:44:51,160 --> 00:44:54,480
Speaker 1: I'm always ready to bet against Jimmy G. That's one

1037
00:44:54,520 --> 00:44:57,200
Speaker 1: of my number one core philosophies in sports betting, and

1038
00:44:57,239 --> 00:44:59,400
Speaker 1: I'm happy to do it in this spot, even though

1039
00:44:59,440 --> 00:45:01,239
Speaker 1: I am laying couple parts on the road here.

1040
00:45:01,320 --> 00:45:04,480
Speaker 3: This is the Jimmy G spot, Like he's sixteen and

1041
00:45:04,640 --> 00:45:07,600
Speaker 3: four for his career as an underdog, like.

1042
00:45:11,480 --> 00:45:15,080
Speaker 1: Well, we'll hopefully be talking about We'll hopefully be talking

1043
00:45:15,120 --> 00:45:18,600
Speaker 1: about these more on Tuesday this week. But I'm not

1044
00:45:18,760 --> 00:45:21,319
Speaker 1: putting a lot of stock in that trend. I don't

1045
00:45:21,360 --> 00:45:23,360
Speaker 1: think that that's a big enough sample size for you

1046
00:45:23,440 --> 00:45:25,600
Speaker 1: to really be paying attention to it when you're betting

1047
00:45:25,680 --> 00:45:29,640
Speaker 1: these two teams. Like, he hasn't had that long a career,

1048
00:45:30,040 --> 00:45:33,759
Speaker 1: especially as a starter. And also I just still don't

1049
00:45:33,800 --> 00:45:35,520
Speaker 1: think that this forty nine ers team is very good.

1050
00:45:35,560 --> 00:45:36,719
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna betting against him.

1051
00:45:36,719 --> 00:45:39,520
Speaker 3: There, that's that's what it is. And tell him, look,

1052
00:45:39,680 --> 00:45:41,600
Speaker 3: it's it's that you don't like the forty nine Ers.

1053
00:45:41,640 --> 00:45:44,960
Speaker 3: If Zach Wilson we're sixteen and four as an underdog

1054
00:45:45,040 --> 00:45:47,880
Speaker 3: against this bread, you would love it. You would be like,

1055
00:45:48,000 --> 00:45:51,239
Speaker 3: this guy's got that dog in him. We'll see.

1056
00:45:51,360 --> 00:45:53,279
Speaker 1: I still want to see more from Zach to see

1057
00:45:53,320 --> 00:45:55,319
Speaker 1: if he still has that dog in him, but I can't.

1058
00:45:55,760 --> 00:45:58,480
Speaker 1: Three things in life for certain man, death taxes, and

1059
00:45:58,600 --> 00:46:02,719
Speaker 1: Jimmy G game breaking interceptions. These are the three constants.

1060
00:46:03,440 --> 00:46:06,040
Speaker 3: Yeah that's fair, that's fair. So bet the over on

1061
00:46:06,200 --> 00:46:08,839
Speaker 3: his interception. Say yeah, well you first believe I am.

1062
00:46:09,000 --> 00:46:11,520
Speaker 1: I bet it every week. It's a profitable bed, I think,

1063
00:46:12,280 --> 00:46:14,920
Speaker 1: or at least turnovers. Jimmy G turnovers. Sometimes he sneaks

1064
00:46:14,920 --> 00:46:16,800
Speaker 1: a fumble in there. To shake things up on you.

1065
00:46:17,320 --> 00:46:21,520
Speaker 1: But before we let you go, here, Ben, final question here.

1066
00:46:21,600 --> 00:46:23,560
Speaker 1: We need a survivor team for the week, and my

1067
00:46:23,719 --> 00:46:25,640
Speaker 1: candidate the team I'm bringing up this week, I'm looking

1068
00:46:25,680 --> 00:46:29,040
Speaker 1: at the Raiders. I don't really have an interest in laying.

1069
00:46:29,080 --> 00:46:31,880
Speaker 1: I believe it's a touchdown right now for them at

1070
00:46:31,960 --> 00:46:37,000
Speaker 1: home here in Vegas against the Texans. But I can't

1071
00:46:37,000 --> 00:46:39,000
Speaker 1: bet on the Texans, and I certainly do think that

1072
00:46:39,080 --> 00:46:41,000
Speaker 1: the Raiders are good enough to win this game out right,

1073
00:46:41,080 --> 00:46:44,080
Speaker 1: both teams coming off their bye week here, are you

1074
00:46:44,239 --> 00:46:46,000
Speaker 1: taking them? Or are you giving us another option?

1075
00:46:46,160 --> 00:46:46,279
Speaker 3: Here?

1076
00:46:47,000 --> 00:46:49,080
Speaker 4: Raiders are fine one if you haven't burned the Buccaneers.

1077
00:46:49,120 --> 00:46:50,600
Speaker 4: The the miss of this mind to pay the Buccaneers,

1078
00:46:50,600 --> 00:46:51,960
Speaker 4: which I haven't used them yet. And that's what I'm

1079
00:46:51,960 --> 00:46:55,920
Speaker 4: taking to my survivor gouls. The Panthers that completed one

1080
00:46:56,040 --> 00:46:58,880
Speaker 4: pass beyond the line of scrimmage against the Rams. I

1081
00:46:59,040 --> 00:47:01,680
Speaker 4: know this because I bet them Panthers, and I did

1082
00:47:01,760 --> 00:47:04,279
Speaker 4: not enjoy watching that game, But in it I became

1083
00:47:04,800 --> 00:47:06,640
Speaker 4: very certain that the Panthers are not winning.

1084
00:47:06,480 --> 00:47:08,279
Speaker 2: Any football games anytime soon. So if you have the

1085
00:47:08,320 --> 00:47:12,719
Speaker 2: Buccaneers available, still fine the Raiders. I like the Texians.

1086
00:47:12,880 --> 00:47:15,200
Speaker 2: I have had trouble baiting this year. That Jacksonville game

1087
00:47:15,200 --> 00:47:16,560
Speaker 2: will bit in my memory for a while.

1088
00:47:17,960 --> 00:47:18,640
Speaker 1: Matt, how about you?

1089
00:47:19,800 --> 00:47:22,600
Speaker 3: Yeah, Raiders are the team that really stuck out to

1090
00:47:22,640 --> 00:47:24,759
Speaker 3: me when I was looking at this. So I will

1091
00:47:24,800 --> 00:47:25,960
Speaker 3: go with you and say the Raiders.

1092
00:47:26,880 --> 00:47:28,759
Speaker 1: All right, Well, guys, that is going to do it

1093
00:47:28,920 --> 00:47:31,000
Speaker 1: for us here Ben, where can people find you? And

1094
00:47:31,040 --> 00:47:33,320
Speaker 1: all the great work they're doing around the internet appreciate?

1095
00:47:33,360 --> 00:47:35,360
Speaker 4: Yeah, yeah, the Ringers were all the football stuff is

1096
00:47:35,440 --> 00:47:36,799
Speaker 4: ring the NFL show, I'm.

1097
00:47:36,719 --> 00:47:39,440
Speaker 2: New gambling every reading those opportions to do that and

1098
00:47:39,440 --> 00:47:41,880
Speaker 2: Anya on Twitter, Benjamins alack and we just do football.

1099
00:47:41,920 --> 00:47:42,560
Speaker 2: It's pretty good.

1100
00:47:42,440 --> 00:47:47,000
Speaker 1: Time, all right for Ben, Matt the Oracle and myself. Guys,

1101
00:47:47,400 --> 00:47:50,440
Speaker 1: best of luck this weekend and let's cash some tickets.