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Speaker 1: This is the Action Network Podcast and it is good.

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Speaker 2: All right. Here we go.

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Speaker 3: Throwing jogular I'm saying it's a cat.

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Speaker 4: We'll see most gamblers when they go to gamble, they

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Speaker 4: go to win.

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Speaker 5: That's incredible. Big bank, small banks.

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Speaker 2: I like to make money.

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Speaker 5: All right. This is the Ultimate Kabaia.

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Speaker 2: And we are underway.

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Speaker 4: And welcome to the Action Network Podcast, presented by Bett MGM.

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Speaker 4: I am your host, Chris Raybon, and this is your

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Speaker 4: Week three NFL betting preview.

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Speaker 5: We'll get into our.

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Speaker 4: Favorite sides, totals, teasers, moneyline dogs, all that good stuff

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Speaker 4: here as always with my guy, Prime Minister of Degenerate Nation,

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Speaker 4: Stucky Stuck.

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Speaker 5: What's going on, man? How was your Week two?

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Speaker 2: It was great. I think I went seven or eight

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Speaker 2: and two had my Ravens pull out to win over

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Speaker 2: the Chiefs. The primetime games have been ridiculous. We're gonna

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Speaker 2: talk about one shortly that might not be ridiculous, but

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Speaker 2: that game was awesome. I had to go. I had

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Speaker 2: to go to the bar Sunday night for that one.

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Speaker 2: Remember the Ravens play like a huge game on Sundays

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Speaker 2: because I used my day out of Saturdays about all

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Speaker 2: day Saturday and Saturday night, but I'll make an exception

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Speaker 2: for once a year when the Ravens play like the

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Speaker 2: Chiefs on a Sunday or Monday night. So it was

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Speaker 2: a price worth paying to have a little rougher Monday.

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Speaker 2: But yeah, it was a great week. A lot of

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Speaker 2: the overreactions that I chose to bet against or on

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Speaker 2: ended up working out. But who cares. We're on the

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Speaker 2: week three. Let's pick more winners.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, man was it was a good week two, and

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Speaker 4: I got my Jaguars Fred Taylor nineteen ninety five throw

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Speaker 4: back on in honor of a time when the Jaguars

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Speaker 4: used to win games and cover spreads. So let's see

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Speaker 4: if they can turn it around and get their first one.

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Speaker 4: I know we're going to talk about that game. And

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Speaker 4: before we get into our Sunday six pack, two quick reminders.

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Speaker 4: Number One, if you plan to bet on any sport

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Speaker 4: ever and you still haven't downloaded the award winning Free

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Speaker 4: Action Network app, what are you doing? It's got betting tools,

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Speaker 4: it lets you shop for the best lines, it's got

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Speaker 4: analysis for me, Stucky and the whole Action Network team,

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Speaker 4: and most importantly, it lets you track every bet that

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Speaker 4: you make. So download the three award winning Action Network

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Speaker 4: app and number two. The Action Network has expanded our

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Speaker 4: podcast portfolio, so if you're looking for best in class

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Speaker 4: fantasy football coverage, check out the Fantasy Flex podcast with

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Speaker 4: Sean Kerner and I and Samantha Praviti. We're giving you

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Speaker 4: five episodes a week now. Be sure to subscribe to

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Speaker 4: the new Fantasy Flex feed. And if you bet on

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Speaker 4: college football, be sure to check out our Big Bets

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Speaker 4: on Campus podcast with my guy right here, Stucky, Howard Wilson,

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Speaker 4: Brett McMurphy and our whole college football crew. All right, stuck,

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Speaker 4: let's get into it and get shit craken with what

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Speaker 4: should be just a sexy Thursday night football game.

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Speaker 1: It's not the best game, but it's the only game tonight.

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Speaker 1: Let's bet Thursday night football.

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Speaker 4: And when I say sexy Thursday night football game, of

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Speaker 4: course I'd be in that tongue in cheek. I did

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Speaker 4: make a wager on this game. It's in the Action

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Speaker 4: Network app. There is a green throw up vombit emoji

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Speaker 4: next to it because of the two quarterbacks, and that's

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Speaker 4: Sam Darnold going against Davis Mills. The Panthers are eight

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Speaker 4: point road favorites at BETMGM with a total of forty

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Speaker 4: three can talk to me about.

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Speaker 2: This only because I have to. I actually do have

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Speaker 2: a play on this a rare Thursday night that I

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Speaker 2: bet the under under forty four. I you know, forty

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Speaker 2: three is kind of a key number. I like it

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Speaker 2: down to forty three, which you should be able to get.

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Speaker 2: I would have liked it a little lower than that.

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Speaker 2: There's just a you're gonna have a rookie quarterback here

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Speaker 2: in Davis Mills. So look, we've seen the rookie quarterbacks

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Speaker 2: who were you know, top fifteen picks struggle early. Davis

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Speaker 2: Mills was not one of them. You know, he went

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Speaker 2: in later rounds. It's reasonable to expect that he's really

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Speaker 2: going to struggle. He struggled when he came in for

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Speaker 2: relief for Tyrod Taylor. The good thing that you get

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Speaker 2: with Tyrod Taylor is he doesn't really turn the ball over.

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Speaker 2: That could be an issue here with Davis Mills. And

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Speaker 2: then the text and secondary, which already stunk, is now

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Speaker 2: banged up. I mean, the only guy that's never they

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Speaker 2: never cut, they like cut all their all their corners

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Speaker 2: is they keep Vernon Harger's around he's their cornerback. Number one.

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Speaker 2: Treymont Smith, I think is going to be their starting cornerback,

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Speaker 2: number two cornerback. He was like, strictly a special treymont

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Speaker 2: Smith is their starting quarterback because and Justin Reid is

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Speaker 2: also supposed to miss. So I think you're gonna get

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Speaker 2: Lonnie Johnson starting alongside Eric Murray. So the secondary is

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Speaker 2: gross for Houston. They're playing hard, you know, for Dave Collin,

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Speaker 2: and we need to talk about him, by the way,

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Speaker 2: declining a penalty and deciding the punt off sides on

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Speaker 2: the Browns last week. It was third and ten at

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Speaker 2: the forty fourth and one, but the Browns are all sides.

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Speaker 2: He did he's had to decline and said, I was

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Speaker 2: just frustrated. He took accountability after, but he said I

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Speaker 2: felt comforted with my punter cornering them there. But it

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Speaker 2: was a touchback of the punt, and he said, if

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Speaker 2: you had to do it over again, he would accept

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Speaker 2: the penalty and go for it again, which would have

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Speaker 2: made it like third and seven, which again is probably

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Speaker 2: the wrong answer. It was fourth and one. Your fourteen

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Speaker 2: point dogs or whatever, line up and go for it

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Speaker 2: a fourth and one on midfield, but whatever. So it's

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Speaker 2: good that they might play a little conservative. But yeah,

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Speaker 2: the Panthers defense has been really good so far. They've

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Speaker 2: shut out both opponents in the first half of each game.

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Speaker 2: I think they benefited from their schedule certainly. You know,

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Speaker 2: they played Zach Wilson in the first game and the Jets,

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Speaker 2: and then the second game, you know, they caught a

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Speaker 2: Saints team in a major letdown, you know, with eight assistants,

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Speaker 2: missing a lot of offensive assistants and they were just

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Speaker 2: out of sorts and everything kind of went wrong for them.

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Speaker 2: I do like the front seven. You know, if I

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Speaker 2: do have some questions in the secondary. You have a

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Speaker 2: rookie corner that you're relying on hasn't really been tested yet,

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Speaker 2: but that's not a huge concern here against a rookie

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Speaker 2: quarterback and this receiving corps. So I think that this

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Speaker 2: front seven of the Panthers can continue to dominate. And

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Speaker 2: it's still an underwhelming Panthers passing attack with Sam Darnold,

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Speaker 2: He's looked competent enough, but not overwhelming. I stretch of

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Speaker 2: the imagine question for you.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, favorite favorite Week two shovel pass interception Carson Wentz

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Speaker 4: or Sam Duharnt.

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Speaker 2: I'm gonna go with Carson Wentz because I can look

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Speaker 2: back and laugh at it because I also still managed

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Speaker 2: to cover because of a butt punt, So what a

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Speaker 2: bizarre game. But I can laugh at the Carson Wentz one. Look,

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Speaker 2: the Panthers should win this game, but I think it's

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Speaker 2: just going to be your typical, ugly Thursday night game.

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Speaker 2: I can't see the Texans offense doing much, and I

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Speaker 2: think this Panthers defense, which will probably get it, really

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Speaker 2: overvalued at some point because just this start to the season.

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Speaker 2: But this is a good matchup for them, and it's

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Speaker 2: not like I can't see Donald going out there and

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Speaker 2: putting up thirty thirty five. So give me the under

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Speaker 2: here under forty four. I think that's a little I

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Speaker 2: just it's primetime. Primetime. Overs are six and zeros so

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Speaker 2: far this year might be getting a point or two

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Speaker 2: or value because of that, So I went under. I

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Speaker 2: would have played the Texans plus eight, you know, if there,

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Speaker 2: if their secondary was just in a little better shape

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Speaker 2: and I just had a little more faith in Davis Mills.

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Speaker 2: I think it's a little inflated on a short week

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Speaker 2: for a team gone on the road, but just I

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Speaker 2: don't want to get involved. The under enough for me,

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Speaker 2: So that's where I'm going.

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I played this under a forty five. I like

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Speaker 4: it to forty three as well. This screams under. I mean,

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Speaker 4: first of all, sometimes you just got to step back

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Speaker 4: and say, Okay, it's Sam Darnold versus Davis Mills, like

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Speaker 4: point blank period. You could have the two worst defenses

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Speaker 4: in the league on the other side, and it may

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Speaker 4: be a stretch to get over, you know, forty three points.

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Speaker 4: I look at that Panthers defense and I actually think

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Speaker 4: they will be quite good.

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Speaker 5: That was kind of the one thing last year.

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Speaker 4: They overachieved last year a little bit at times, but

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Speaker 4: that's what they were really building last year, was that

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Speaker 4: the defensive front. And so far in PFF. I know

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Speaker 4: it's only two weeks, but they're only players that are

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Speaker 4: graded outside of the top half at their position are

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Speaker 4: the two safeties chinnin Buris and Chin is a pretty

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Speaker 4: good player, I think, but everyone else and Bou yet

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Speaker 4: because he hasn't played, but everyone else.

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Speaker 5: The corner Dante Jackson's played well.

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Speaker 4: J C. Hornet think has played really well. I know

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Speaker 4: again it's been an easy schedule. But this is arguably,

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Speaker 4: according to you and Sean Kerner, the easiest strength of

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Speaker 4: schedule now going against the Texans, right, so, like this

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Speaker 4: is not a matchup that scares me. I don't know

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Speaker 4: how much of the first two Texans games you got

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Speaker 4: to see.

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Speaker 5: How good was Tyrod Taylor playing.

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Speaker 4: I mean, Tyrod Taylor might have been the biggest surprise

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Speaker 4: of any player that I've seen on a football field

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Speaker 4: in twenty twenty one. Like this dude was playing almost

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Speaker 4: flawless football, like he was playing Lamar level, you know,

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Speaker 4: freaking Kyler, probably better because he wasn't turning it over

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Speaker 4: as much as Kyler. Like he was playing really well.

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Speaker 4: It's like a brutal blow for the Texas. I just

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Speaker 4: worry about a guy like Brandon Cooks, who with Tyrod Taylor,

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Speaker 4: he was averaging fifteen yards per target with Davis Mills.

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Speaker 5: I know he got the touchdown.

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Speaker 4: He called that play by the way, Brandon Cooks called

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Speaker 4: that play which he got the touchdown, like he went

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Speaker 4: to the sideline and said, Yo, we need to run

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Speaker 4: this got the touchdown. But he's averaging three yards of

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Speaker 4: target and four of nine from Davis Mills, So there

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Speaker 4: could be.

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Speaker 5: He's been their only real weapon.

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Speaker 4: Mark Ingram looks good, but he's averaging like three yards

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Speaker 4: of carry.

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Speaker 5: I just don't see how the Texans get much offense.

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Speaker 4: I think the only thing you're worried about in this

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Speaker 4: game is the turnover.

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Speaker 5: Me like, if you know Darnold obviously turnover.

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Speaker 2: How many ghosts? So these quarterbacks gonna combined?

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Speaker 5: Right?

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Speaker 4: I mean, how many times is Davis Mills gonna turn

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Speaker 4: the right way on a handoff like he was? He was,

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Speaker 4: he was, he was all turned around? Yeah, it's I

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Speaker 4: don't think it's going to be a pretty one. Had

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Speaker 4: the Giants in Washington under last week on Thursday. That

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Speaker 4: didn't work out, But hopefully you get this one because

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Speaker 4: this is uh, this.

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Speaker 2: Is screams under and what I've seen so far. If

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Speaker 2: this does, if this game doesn't get too far out

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Speaker 2: of hand, I think that Collie will play it very

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Speaker 2: conservatively slow on heavy. I cannot see him putting Mills

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Speaker 2: into Harm's way.

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Speaker 5: I'm with you on the spread. I think it's to

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Speaker 5: stay away.

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Speaker 4: But it's interesting that Thursday Night football favorites by seven

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Speaker 4: or more points over the last fifteen years are forty

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Speaker 4: one and twenty sixty seven percent against the spread. All

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Speaker 4: that being said, I still think if you're if gun

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Speaker 4: to my head, I would I would take the points

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Speaker 4: with the Texans because eight points for Sam darn on

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Speaker 4: the road still a lot of points. So let's get

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Speaker 4: into the Sunday six.

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Speaker 1: Pack Thursday for action. Let's crack open the Sunday six pack.

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Speaker 4: All right, for those unfamiliar, our Sunday six packs, where

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Speaker 4: we each have three bets, three spread bets. We draft

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Speaker 4: them so we can't have the same bet, but we

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Speaker 4: can be on the opposite sides of the same bet.

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Speaker 4: Our first two bets are worth two points each, our

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Speaker 4: third one is worth one.

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Speaker 5: We keep score.

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Speaker 4: We also get a point for our total hits, which

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Speaker 4: we'll get to in the next segment. Through two weeks,

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Speaker 4: we've been pretty hot. I'm up nine to eight, but

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Speaker 4: that many misses through two weeks, so good stuff.

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Speaker 5: Let's keep it going.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, let's start out with my first pick of the

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Speaker 2: Sunday six pack. I'm rolling with the Miami Dolphins plus

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Speaker 2: four at bet MGM should probably come to a shock

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Speaker 2: to some of you, or when it came across the

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Speaker 2: action map. I hate I am so low on this

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Speaker 2: Dolphins team. You know, if you look back at Oho

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Speaker 2: and two teams, teams have started off oh and two,

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Speaker 2: you know they're fifty two thirty six and one against

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Speaker 2: the spread about sixty percent since twenty ten. Teams that

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Speaker 2: have started out oh and two straight up and against

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Speaker 2: the spread over sixty percent since two thousand and three.

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Speaker 2: Road underdogs who have started out who've dropped their first

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Speaker 2: two games forty one, twenty eight and one against the

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Speaker 2: spread since two thousand and three. So if you just

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Speaker 2: look across the board, there are some good trends in

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Speaker 2: Row and two teams. I'm going to get to some

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Speaker 2: of them. It's just as you would expect. They lost

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Speaker 2: the first two. All betters are jumping off, just like

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Speaker 2: Week two. You still see some of a reaction to

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Speaker 2: Week three. This is mainly I'm selling a Raiders team

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Speaker 2: that's coming off back to back up sets over the

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Speaker 2: Raivens and the Steelers. This is a team. Last year

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Speaker 2: when these two teams met in December, the Dolphins were

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Speaker 2: two and a half point favorites. I was on the

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Speaker 2: Raiders in this game and they covered. They lost by one.

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Speaker 2: Fitzpatrick kind of come in saved the day. Tuo was

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Speaker 2: really effective and benched. But if you look at that

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Speaker 2: receiving corps, there was no one there. I mean, Parker

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Speaker 2: was out for that game. Now this week he's banged

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Speaker 2: up and out as of this afternoon. But I don't

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Speaker 2: think it's a big drop off. You've heard me. I'm

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Speaker 2: not a huge fan. You look at his you know,

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Speaker 2: his air yards, his depth of target, some of his

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Speaker 2: accuracy numbers. It's just not great. I don't think there's

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Speaker 2: a massive dropoff from Tua to now we're gonna have

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Speaker 2: Brisett in there. I just don't don't see it. So

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Speaker 2: maybe like maybe half a point, that's it, you know,

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Speaker 2: I make this line under a field goal. I think

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Speaker 2: you get Miami's best effort after getting embarrassed last week,

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Speaker 2: and this is just a it's just a cell high spot.

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Speaker 2: I've Gruden, who's been bad against the bad as a

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Speaker 2: favorite in his career, and also speak speaking of the

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Speaker 2: by low nature of the Dolphins. Teams that have failed

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Speaker 2: to cover by four touchdowns or more. The only team

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Speaker 2: that fits this criteria this week. In their previous game,

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Speaker 2: they've gone one hundred and fifteen, seventy one and six

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Speaker 2: again to spread Since two thousand and three. That's sixty

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Speaker 2: two percent, a nice little nineteen percent ROI. So I

286
00:14:06,120 --> 00:14:10,040
Speaker 2: think there's just too much inflation in this line for

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Speaker 2: a Raiders team that's looked that they've been impressive the

288
00:14:12,320 --> 00:14:15,319
Speaker 2: first two weeks, get a bit fortunate in that Ravens win.

289
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Speaker 2: They take advantage of just an inept Steelers offense and

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Speaker 2: a Steelers defense that had suffered some injuries as well.

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Speaker 2: So I think that the market is just too high.

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Speaker 2: Should be a field goal max, So give me the

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Speaker 2: Dolphins plus four. You know, I think it's gonna be

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Speaker 2: a lower scoring game, making those four points even more valuable.

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Speaker 2: So give me Miami.

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Speaker 5: Yeah, we're on the same page with this game.

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Speaker 4: I bet Miami plus four and the under forty five

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Speaker 4: and a half. I actually bet the under during our

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Speaker 4: Fantasy Flex pod with Sewn yesterday because we just got

300
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Speaker 4: on that topic of that game and we were like, Yo,

301
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Speaker 4: why is the unders?

302
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Speaker 5: Why is the total so high?

303
00:14:52,880 --> 00:14:55,280
Speaker 4: And so we just like bet it while we were recording.

304
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Speaker 4: But yeah, I think your handicap is exactly right. I

305
00:14:58,040 --> 00:15:00,840
Speaker 4: think this is a and who would have thought that

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Speaker 4: in the week three Raiders Miami coming into town from

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Speaker 4: across the country would be a letdown spot for the Raiders,

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Speaker 4: And this is a perfect spot to sell the Raiders

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Speaker 4: because you mentioned John Gruden, and I have more numbers

310
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Speaker 4: because I have a bunch. I have like seven trends

311
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Speaker 4: in at my Action Labs, all on Miami, none on

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Speaker 4: the Raiders. One of them fade John Gruden off a win,

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Speaker 4: He's just twenty eight and thirty eight against the spread

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Speaker 4: off of multi game winning streak. Gruden just eight and

315
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Speaker 4: eighteen against the spread, covering just thirty one percent of

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Speaker 4: the time. When you have a team that got shut

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Speaker 4: out the following week going against a favorite the next week,

318
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Speaker 4: as long as the favorite is like as long as

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Speaker 4: the opponent's not coming.

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Speaker 5: Off a buy because then it gets really tricky.

321
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Speaker 4: But as well, if you have an underdog off a

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Speaker 4: shutout thirty eight and twenty sixty six percent against the

323
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Speaker 4: spread since twenty and three and twenty five percent ROI

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Speaker 4: pretty much everything lines up for this to be a

325
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Speaker 4: bil spot on the Dolphins, and I agree. I think

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Speaker 4: it's should be just under a field goal. That's what

327
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Speaker 4: I make the line, So anything three or better I

328
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Speaker 4: take it. I think you know, the Raiders, they could

329
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Speaker 4: win this game. They could go to three or no.

330
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Speaker 4: But you're getting more than that.

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Speaker 5: Field goal here.

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Speaker 4: I would take it, you know, to the point where

333
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Speaker 4: if I if they do win by a field goal,

334
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Speaker 4: I still push. I'd be happy conceding that. But I

335
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Speaker 4: think the only play here is the Dolphins. If you

336
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Speaker 4: like the Raiders, I think you just stay away from

337
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Speaker 4: this game. Everybody in the NFL I have a dream

338
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Speaker 4: of winning a super Bowl. I'm really not into dreams, Okay,

339
00:16:29,920 --> 00:16:31,120
Speaker 4: I'm into nightmares.

340
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Speaker 5: We're not trying to go to the Gator Bowl.

341
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Speaker 2: We're trying to go to the super Bowl.

342
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Speaker 5: And to do that you got to really try to

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Speaker 5: end somebody's dream. So get into that.

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Speaker 4: For the second overall pick of the week three Sunday

345
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Speaker 4: six Pack and my first pick, I am going with

346
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Speaker 4: the Atlanta Falcons plus three at.

347
00:16:48,040 --> 00:16:49,160
Speaker 5: The New York Giants.

348
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Speaker 4: This is the time for me to buy low on

349
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Speaker 4: teams like this, Like the Falcons are one of those

350
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Speaker 4: teams that I didn't expect to be good. I think

351
00:16:57,200 --> 00:17:00,440
Speaker 4: they lacked depth. First year coach, changing some schemes. Things

352
00:17:00,680 --> 00:17:03,200
Speaker 4: gonna take some time. They lost, you know, one of

353
00:17:03,240 --> 00:17:05,840
Speaker 4: their most explosive offensive players. They did gain another one,

354
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Speaker 4: but this is the time the Bible, and this Falcons team,

355
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Speaker 4: in my opinion, going against the Giants team that should

356
00:17:12,000 --> 00:17:14,680
Speaker 4: have won last week. So I'm actually kind of mad

357
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Speaker 4: that they blew that because I think we would have

358
00:17:16,040 --> 00:17:19,800
Speaker 4: gotten that extra point half point point if they had

359
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Speaker 4: won that game.

360
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Speaker 5: But you look at.

361
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Speaker 4: The Daniel this is a crazy it's funny with Daniel

362
00:17:25,320 --> 00:17:29,120
Speaker 4: Jones because I've kind of followed this very closely because

363
00:17:29,160 --> 00:17:32,760
Speaker 4: it lines up perfectly with common sense. The Giants are

364
00:17:33,040 --> 00:17:37,240
Speaker 4: decently coached, that we've done defense, they're you know, they're

365
00:17:37,320 --> 00:17:38,520
Speaker 4: they're not too explosive.

366
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Speaker 5: But the team that like they can they can hang

367
00:17:40,720 --> 00:17:43,840
Speaker 5: around in games. And so what usually happens.

368
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Speaker 4: Is the market, you know, they go on the road

369
00:17:45,720 --> 00:17:47,600
Speaker 4: and they look like a bad team because they are,

370
00:17:48,200 --> 00:17:51,560
Speaker 4: and they hang around, and then the market is like,

371
00:17:51,560 --> 00:17:53,280
Speaker 4: oh maybe the Giants are run to some and then

372
00:17:53,280 --> 00:17:55,160
Speaker 4: they come back home and they're.

373
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Speaker 5: Just grossly overrated.

374
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Speaker 4: So in his career, Daniel Jones ten and four against

375
00:17:59,720 --> 00:18:01,399
Speaker 4: the spread on the road, four and.

376
00:18:01,240 --> 00:18:02,600
Speaker 5: Ten against the home.

377
00:18:02,640 --> 00:18:03,919
Speaker 2: Yeah, complete exactly.

378
00:18:04,000 --> 00:18:06,439
Speaker 4: It's like Jamis Smithston with the favorite underdog. It's like

379
00:18:07,480 --> 00:18:09,359
Speaker 4: and it's it's it's this is why why is this?

380
00:18:09,400 --> 00:18:11,760
Speaker 4: Because the NFL usually schedules you know, road game home game,

381
00:18:11,840 --> 00:18:13,440
Speaker 4: road game home, but sometimes you have you know, multi

382
00:18:13,440 --> 00:18:15,720
Speaker 4: game streaks. But in general, this is what happens, or

383
00:18:16,000 --> 00:18:17,399
Speaker 4: you just have the Giants played well two weeks in

384
00:18:17,400 --> 00:18:19,440
Speaker 4: the road, in the road or whatever. But either way,

385
00:18:20,240 --> 00:18:22,200
Speaker 4: this is something to be aware of from here on out.

386
00:18:22,560 --> 00:18:24,280
Speaker 4: I don't think the Giants should be favored by a

387
00:18:24,320 --> 00:18:27,160
Speaker 4: field goal or more against pretty much anyone right now,

388
00:18:27,800 --> 00:18:29,960
Speaker 4: maybe the Jaguars, and even then I'd have a hard time,

389
00:18:30,280 --> 00:18:33,560
Speaker 4: you know, really getting behind it. But this is another

390
00:18:33,640 --> 00:18:35,960
Speaker 4: situation where you also have the trends going in your favor.

391
00:18:36,000 --> 00:18:39,600
Speaker 4: You know, Week three underdogs that opened under a touchdown

392
00:18:39,840 --> 00:18:42,520
Speaker 4: are one hundred and four seventy two and five since

393
00:18:42,560 --> 00:18:46,240
Speaker 4: two thousand and three, it's a fifty nine percent cover rate.

394
00:18:46,680 --> 00:18:47,880
Speaker 5: And the thing for me with.

395
00:18:47,840 --> 00:18:50,920
Speaker 4: The Falcons, the reason I faded them the first two weeks. Listen,

396
00:18:50,960 --> 00:18:53,200
Speaker 4: they're gonna be overmatching the trenches most weeks.

397
00:18:53,520 --> 00:18:54,840
Speaker 5: This is not one of those weeks.

398
00:18:55,040 --> 00:18:57,800
Speaker 4: This is a week where you have a more turnover

399
00:18:57,840 --> 00:19:00,000
Speaker 4: prone opponent on the other side. So I know, everyone

400
00:19:01,040 --> 00:19:02,880
Speaker 4: up in arms about Matt Ryan and the two picks

401
00:19:02,880 --> 00:19:05,719
Speaker 4: sixes and the three picks and not great obviously, but

402
00:19:06,119 --> 00:19:08,119
Speaker 4: Matt Ryan is what I call a profession at this

403
00:19:08,119 --> 00:19:08,680
Speaker 4: point in his career.

404
00:19:08,720 --> 00:19:12,199
Speaker 5: He's a professional losing quarterback. What does that mean? That

405
00:19:12,320 --> 00:19:14,040
Speaker 5: means he's gonna be on a.

406
00:19:13,960 --> 00:19:17,520
Speaker 4: Team that's probably gonna go like five and twelve or

407
00:19:17,560 --> 00:19:20,480
Speaker 4: six and eleven. But where are those five six wins

408
00:19:20,480 --> 00:19:24,400
Speaker 4: gonna come from? Games like this on the road against

409
00:19:24,400 --> 00:19:26,560
Speaker 4: the Giants, who don't really have a home field advantage.

410
00:19:26,560 --> 00:19:29,480
Speaker 4: You have a turnover prone quarterback who have probably a

411
00:19:29,560 --> 00:19:31,760
Speaker 4: disadvantage in the trenches on both sides of the ball.

412
00:19:31,840 --> 00:19:35,840
Speaker 4: In this matchup, it's even at worst. Falcons still I

413
00:19:35,840 --> 00:19:39,040
Speaker 4: think have better playmakers on the outside and Ridley and pits.

414
00:19:39,600 --> 00:19:43,040
Speaker 4: Cordell Patterson, I mean, he looked amazing last Week's probably

415
00:19:43,080 --> 00:19:45,160
Speaker 4: their best offensive player, which I don't know if that's

416
00:19:45,160 --> 00:19:48,280
Speaker 4: an indictment or what. But it's another one where I

417
00:19:48,359 --> 00:19:52,600
Speaker 4: have every trend. I have seven trends and that's a

418
00:19:52,640 --> 00:19:56,160
Speaker 4: massive number in my action labs saved and they're all

419
00:19:56,240 --> 00:19:59,720
Speaker 4: on Atlanta, none on the Giants. You know, week three underdogs,

420
00:19:59,720 --> 00:20:02,960
Speaker 4: wh favorite covered in Week two fifty nine and forty

421
00:20:03,080 --> 00:20:05,840
Speaker 4: against the spread sixty percent in two thousand and three.

422
00:20:06,000 --> 00:20:09,440
Speaker 4: A road team coming off a blowout of twenty plus

423
00:20:10,520 --> 00:20:13,760
Speaker 4: versus a home team. That's not it's not a winning team.

424
00:20:14,200 --> 00:20:17,720
Speaker 4: One thirty seven ninety and four against the spread sixty

425
00:20:17,720 --> 00:20:21,760
Speaker 4: percent seventeen percent ROI I mean you still have like

426
00:20:21,760 --> 00:20:25,200
Speaker 4: the pro system road dog low total after a bad year,

427
00:20:25,480 --> 00:20:28,040
Speaker 4: that's hitting at a sixty two percent clip. I mean

428
00:20:28,320 --> 00:20:30,320
Speaker 4: this is just by low on. The Falcon is going

429
00:20:30,400 --> 00:20:31,240
Speaker 4: to be an ugly game.

430
00:20:31,520 --> 00:20:32,160
Speaker 5: Sae Kwon bark.

431
00:20:32,200 --> 00:20:34,440
Speaker 4: We should have his best game, yet I was fading

432
00:20:34,480 --> 00:20:36,720
Speaker 4: him in fantasy. I always thought the season started in

433
00:20:36,800 --> 00:20:38,399
Speaker 4: week three, whether he played the first two weeks or not,

434
00:20:38,480 --> 00:20:39,440
Speaker 4: So I do expect.

435
00:20:39,200 --> 00:20:40,000
Speaker 5: To have a better game.

436
00:20:40,280 --> 00:20:42,359
Speaker 4: Again, Giants aren't is out matched in the trenches in

437
00:20:42,400 --> 00:20:44,960
Speaker 4: this one either, But this is exactly the kind of

438
00:20:45,000 --> 00:20:45,919
Speaker 4: spot you want the Falcons.

439
00:20:45,920 --> 00:20:47,000
Speaker 5: It's just a toss up game for me.

440
00:20:47,560 --> 00:20:51,000
Speaker 4: So I'm taking a points with the Atlanta Falcons against

441
00:20:51,119 --> 00:20:52,520
Speaker 4: the New York Giants.

442
00:20:53,040 --> 00:20:55,280
Speaker 2: Yeah, I don't mind it. I mean, you the Giants

443
00:20:55,320 --> 00:20:57,560
Speaker 2: do get a couple extra days of rest in preparation.

444
00:20:57,800 --> 00:21:00,520
Speaker 2: But if I had a better side on this, I

445
00:21:00,560 --> 00:21:03,040
Speaker 2: would take the points. I think this will probably end

446
00:21:03,119 --> 00:21:04,720
Speaker 2: up closing two and a half I might end up

447
00:21:04,760 --> 00:21:08,520
Speaker 2: teasing the Falcons. The Falcons, by the way, looked Arthur

448
00:21:08,520 --> 00:21:12,120
Speaker 2: Smith look lost in his first game, still some questionable things.

449
00:21:12,119 --> 00:21:14,159
Speaker 2: A week too, they looked a lot better that That

450
00:21:14,280 --> 00:21:16,840
Speaker 2: score against the Bucks was very misleading. There was two

451
00:21:16,880 --> 00:21:20,800
Speaker 2: pick sixes in the fourth quarter, so they looked a

452
00:21:20,880 --> 00:21:22,879
Speaker 2: lot more confident than they did against the Eagles in

453
00:21:22,920 --> 00:21:25,679
Speaker 2: Week one. You know, that was against that was a

454
00:21:25,720 --> 00:21:27,840
Speaker 2: game that it looked like it was gonna go, could

455
00:21:27,880 --> 00:21:30,040
Speaker 2: go either way in the fourth quarter against their raining

456
00:21:30,040 --> 00:21:32,680
Speaker 2: Super Bowl champs. So there was some progress there and

457
00:21:33,520 --> 00:21:37,119
Speaker 2: something to build off of for Atlanta. So yeah, I

458
00:21:37,160 --> 00:21:40,119
Speaker 2: think that if you're betting this game, you have to

459
00:21:40,119 --> 00:21:41,240
Speaker 2: take the points.

460
00:21:41,160 --> 00:21:43,440
Speaker 4: And to your point on the on the Falcons in

461
00:21:43,480 --> 00:21:45,439
Speaker 4: the last game, and again, this is gonna happen when

462
00:21:45,480 --> 00:21:46,280
Speaker 4: you have two pick sixes.

463
00:21:46,320 --> 00:21:48,000
Speaker 5: So I'm not like saying like.

464
00:21:47,920 --> 00:21:50,600
Speaker 4: Oh this is great, like this gospel here, but just

465
00:21:50,720 --> 00:21:54,520
Speaker 4: interesting to note for perspective's sake. The Falcons outgained the

466
00:21:54,520 --> 00:21:58,280
Speaker 4: Bucks in that game three eight to three forty one and.

467
00:21:58,359 --> 00:22:01,080
Speaker 2: Actually scored some touchdowns on the reds for once, which

468
00:22:01,119 --> 00:22:02,200
Speaker 2: is promising.

469
00:22:01,880 --> 00:22:04,000
Speaker 5: Right, Yeah, and that's all you need to do against

470
00:22:04,000 --> 00:22:04,479
Speaker 5: the Giants.

471
00:22:04,520 --> 00:22:06,879
Speaker 4: And now you're starting to see the Giants do what

472
00:22:06,920 --> 00:22:09,440
Speaker 4: they've done for a lot of my lifetime, which is

473
00:22:09,560 --> 00:22:11,879
Speaker 4: figure out ways to lose games. I mean, the Falcons,

474
00:22:11,920 --> 00:22:13,879
Speaker 4: I thought they were gonna lose Week one regardless, and

475
00:22:14,440 --> 00:22:16,560
Speaker 4: you know they shouldn't. They weren't gonna beat the Bucks anyway,

476
00:22:16,640 --> 00:22:18,800
Speaker 4: even though it looked ugly. But this is a game

477
00:22:18,840 --> 00:22:21,719
Speaker 4: where I think Giants fan expect them to win. Falcons

478
00:22:21,760 --> 00:22:25,479
Speaker 4: fans probably expect them to win. But to me, this

479
00:22:25,520 --> 00:22:26,920
Speaker 4: is this is the kind of spot where a team

480
00:22:26,960 --> 00:22:27,920
Speaker 4: like the Falcons get to win.

481
00:22:28,000 --> 00:22:30,200
Speaker 5: So yeah.

482
00:22:31,119 --> 00:22:34,879
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511
00:24:04,480 --> 00:24:05,760
Speaker 6: Let's get back to the show.

512
00:24:06,840 --> 00:24:07,200
Speaker 5: All right.

513
00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:10,359
Speaker 2: For my second pick and the third overall of the

514
00:24:10,400 --> 00:24:15,240
Speaker 2: Sunday six pack, I'm going with the Indianapolis Colts plus

515
00:24:15,280 --> 00:24:19,360
Speaker 2: five and a half at Ben MGM at the Tennessee Titans.

516
00:24:20,119 --> 00:24:27,359
Speaker 2: Insert puke noise here. We're going from vers set to

517
00:24:27,440 --> 00:24:29,920
Speaker 2: potentially Jacob eas and this is just the regular week

518
00:24:30,000 --> 00:24:33,080
Speaker 2: for me. We had. It's interesting if you look at

519
00:24:33,080 --> 00:24:34,840
Speaker 2: home field a vtage, it's something that I'm really trying

520
00:24:34,840 --> 00:24:37,119
Speaker 2: to figure out. It's been just dwindling and dwindling in

521
00:24:37,160 --> 00:24:39,199
Speaker 2: New England in the last few years. It's basically been nothing.

522
00:24:39,359 --> 00:24:42,080
Speaker 2: Now I don't believe it's nothing, and it's still relatively

523
00:24:42,080 --> 00:24:45,440
Speaker 2: small sample size, but it's no, it's not over two anymore.

524
00:24:45,960 --> 00:24:48,399
Speaker 2: If you think it's close to three, it's not. So

525
00:24:48,520 --> 00:24:51,320
Speaker 2: you know, I'm still you know, around one one and

526
00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:53,440
Speaker 2: a half, but that might be too high. It's something

527
00:24:53,480 --> 00:24:55,920
Speaker 2: I'm always a valuad, but for this I'm right around one.

528
00:24:56,480 --> 00:24:59,360
Speaker 2: So you know, coming into the year, I had these

529
00:24:59,400 --> 00:25:04,600
Speaker 2: teams pretty much dead. Even how much of a drop

530
00:25:04,640 --> 00:25:07,560
Speaker 2: off is it from Carson Wentz who might play. You know,

531
00:25:07,600 --> 00:25:10,080
Speaker 2: he came out today. He was talking about his ankles.

532
00:25:10,080 --> 00:25:12,119
Speaker 2: He's throwing the kitchens. They got it. Didn't practice today.

533
00:25:12,520 --> 00:25:15,760
Speaker 2: We'll see spray. Nachels are tough. He does rely a

534
00:25:15,760 --> 00:25:17,640
Speaker 2: little bit on getting around, so it might be tough.

535
00:25:18,080 --> 00:25:19,600
Speaker 2: But how much of it to drop off? Is it?

536
00:25:19,680 --> 00:25:24,040
Speaker 2: From Carson Wentz to Jacob Eason. I don't think it's

537
00:25:24,359 --> 00:25:29,280
Speaker 2: four and a half points zero zero. I think it's well.

538
00:25:29,320 --> 00:25:30,679
Speaker 2: I think you have to assume it's a couple just

539
00:25:30,680 --> 00:25:33,679
Speaker 2: because he's right. So you don't know, but you know,

540
00:25:33,760 --> 00:25:35,840
Speaker 2: maybe I would make this then, you know, around a

541
00:25:35,840 --> 00:25:39,639
Speaker 2: field goal if Wentz can't go. The Cults are a

542
00:25:39,640 --> 00:25:42,600
Speaker 2: team that the Colts end of the Titans too, in fairness,

543
00:25:42,640 --> 00:25:45,240
Speaker 2: were teams that I thought would improve as the season

544
00:25:45,240 --> 00:25:46,879
Speaker 2: goes on. They were dealing with a lot in camp.

545
00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:51,000
Speaker 2: But I just this line is too high. After we

546
00:25:51,040 --> 00:25:53,920
Speaker 2: saw Tennessee go to Seattle and win in a classic

547
00:25:54,000 --> 00:25:57,640
Speaker 2: Seattle game, Seattle is up, you know, two touchdowns late

548
00:25:57,680 --> 00:26:00,960
Speaker 2: and they fold. Derrick Henry just went off and Tannehill

549
00:26:01,000 --> 00:26:02,840
Speaker 2: played really well as well.

550
00:26:03,160 --> 00:26:05,720
Speaker 4: They got the cover for the podcast that was Yeah,

551
00:26:05,760 --> 00:26:08,199
Speaker 4: that was a great need it man. I wrote that

552
00:26:08,240 --> 00:26:10,720
Speaker 4: game off, I was like, oh, this is this is over,

553
00:26:10,800 --> 00:26:12,760
Speaker 4: like when they missed that field goal, because that that

554
00:26:12,760 --> 00:26:14,240
Speaker 4: would have took it to five. And I think I

555
00:26:14,240 --> 00:26:16,399
Speaker 4: got the line I got was on the show was

556
00:26:16,440 --> 00:26:18,040
Speaker 4: five and a half, so I was like, oh, well

557
00:26:18,080 --> 00:26:18,560
Speaker 4: this is there.

558
00:26:18,560 --> 00:26:18,960
Speaker 5: It goes that.

559
00:26:19,640 --> 00:26:22,800
Speaker 2: But yeah, yeah, that was impressive effort in the second

560
00:26:22,840 --> 00:26:26,160
Speaker 2: half of the Titans. But yeah, I think these two

561
00:26:26,160 --> 00:26:30,000
Speaker 2: teams are fairly evenly matched. I mean, the Colts defense

562
00:26:30,680 --> 00:26:33,879
Speaker 2: is much better than the Tennessee defense and vice versa

563
00:26:33,920 --> 00:26:38,840
Speaker 2: with the Titans offense. The Colts offense hasn't been that

564
00:26:39,000 --> 00:26:41,200
Speaker 2: great so far this year, but their offensive line has

565
00:26:41,200 --> 00:26:43,680
Speaker 2: been a mess. I mean, like, you just got you

566
00:26:43,760 --> 00:26:48,000
Speaker 2: got just got fisher back Brayden Smith. Maybe he'll play

567
00:26:48,000 --> 00:26:50,840
Speaker 2: this week. If he does, you'll finally have your offensive

568
00:26:50,880 --> 00:26:53,560
Speaker 2: line healthy for the first time. Most importantly, that means

569
00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:55,520
Speaker 2: you get Julian Davenport out. I mean, he's allowed the

570
00:26:55,520 --> 00:26:58,560
Speaker 2: most pressures, more more pressures than any tackle in the

571
00:26:58,640 --> 00:27:00,840
Speaker 2: NFL with thirteen. He grades out of the fifth worst

572
00:27:00,960 --> 00:27:04,280
Speaker 2: tackle out of seventy four per PFF. I think the

573
00:27:04,280 --> 00:27:07,000
Speaker 2: Colts will be able to run the ball here pretty

574
00:27:07,080 --> 00:27:10,080
Speaker 2: much at will, even if Smith can't go. They should

575
00:27:10,119 --> 00:27:12,959
Speaker 2: be able to control the clock. Anyone can throw on

576
00:27:13,040 --> 00:27:16,000
Speaker 2: this Tennessee defense. It's just not a well schooled and

577
00:27:16,040 --> 00:27:19,960
Speaker 2: it's not a talented defense. I'm sure that the Titans

578
00:27:20,000 --> 00:27:23,639
Speaker 2: will put up points. Maybe Xavier Roads comes back for

579
00:27:23,680 --> 00:27:25,840
Speaker 2: the Colts. He didn't practice again day. He hasn't played

580
00:27:25,920 --> 00:27:29,000
Speaker 2: yet this year, but the Titans are dealing with a

581
00:27:29,080 --> 00:27:32,040
Speaker 2: number of injuries of their own as well. I just

582
00:27:32,080 --> 00:27:35,719
Speaker 2: think this line too high fits all the trends of

583
00:27:35,840 --> 00:27:39,000
Speaker 2: you know, teams that are zero and two desperate division

584
00:27:39,920 --> 00:27:43,520
Speaker 2: road dog here not getting enough respect. Del the line

585
00:27:43,560 --> 00:27:46,920
Speaker 2: is is in a dead spot something It doesn't matter

586
00:27:46,960 --> 00:27:48,520
Speaker 2: for the contents will take five minutes. But I'm waiting.

587
00:27:48,560 --> 00:27:49,880
Speaker 2: So if you haven't seen this come through in the app,

588
00:27:49,920 --> 00:27:51,359
Speaker 2: I'm going to see if I can get the six.

589
00:27:52,040 --> 00:27:53,920
Speaker 2: You know, maybe if Wentz is announced out, he goes

590
00:27:53,960 --> 00:27:55,760
Speaker 2: to six and a half. No point, I don't need

591
00:27:55,800 --> 00:27:57,640
Speaker 2: to wait. I said this with the Titans to last

592
00:27:57,640 --> 00:27:59,720
Speaker 2: week for you would you get this pick out? I said,

593
00:27:59,720 --> 00:28:01,320
Speaker 2: you might as will wait when they were playing the

594
00:28:01,320 --> 00:28:03,160
Speaker 2: Seahawks and the line went to you know, six, six

595
00:28:03,200 --> 00:28:04,960
Speaker 2: and a half. I think the same thing here. You

596
00:28:04,960 --> 00:28:06,400
Speaker 2: can wait to see if you can get six six

597
00:28:06,440 --> 00:28:09,360
Speaker 2: and a half. The Colts also have the intangible advantage

598
00:28:09,400 --> 00:28:12,960
Speaker 2: with a couple of them special teams. They'll have the

599
00:28:13,640 --> 00:28:15,960
Speaker 2: special teams. You know, that makes the least amount of

600
00:28:16,040 --> 00:28:20,000
Speaker 2: mistakes and coaching. I like this staff better and even

601
00:28:20,080 --> 00:28:23,680
Speaker 2: if he's in place, I think that. And we've seen

602
00:28:23,680 --> 00:28:26,760
Speaker 2: this Titans team put up stinkers against bad teams. And

603
00:28:26,800 --> 00:28:28,040
Speaker 2: I don't think the Colts are a bad team. I

604
00:28:28,040 --> 00:28:30,359
Speaker 2: don't think they're a good team, but they're basically an

605
00:28:30,359 --> 00:28:33,280
Speaker 2: average team. I think that Frank Wright has a really

606
00:28:33,280 --> 00:28:36,840
Speaker 2: good shot of going in to Nashville for the fourth

607
00:28:36,920 --> 00:28:39,800
Speaker 2: year in a row and pulling off a win on

608
00:28:39,840 --> 00:28:42,280
Speaker 2: the road. So give me the Colts and in a

609
00:28:42,360 --> 00:28:44,240
Speaker 2: flat number plus five and a half here, but wait

610
00:28:44,240 --> 00:28:47,040
Speaker 2: to see if you can get six six and a half.

611
00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:49,400
Speaker 2: This is arguably the cold season.

612
00:28:49,920 --> 00:28:52,520
Speaker 4: Yeah, this is another one where seven trends on the

613
00:28:52,520 --> 00:28:56,120
Speaker 4: Colts side, none on the Titan side. For me, you know,

614
00:28:56,160 --> 00:28:58,760
Speaker 4: you look at a Week three underdog versus a favorite

615
00:28:58,760 --> 00:29:01,400
Speaker 4: who covered in Week two again fifty nine and forty

616
00:29:01,400 --> 00:29:04,560
Speaker 4: against the spread. There's just you know, a winless team

617
00:29:04,640 --> 00:29:06,840
Speaker 4: versus a team with at least one win in Week

618
00:29:06,880 --> 00:29:09,840
Speaker 4: three fifty seven and forty two to fifty eight percent

619
00:29:09,840 --> 00:29:12,800
Speaker 4: against the spread. I mean, the Colts are the only

620
00:29:12,840 --> 00:29:15,440
Speaker 4: play here through two weeks. I mean, DVA you can't

621
00:29:15,480 --> 00:29:17,000
Speaker 4: like take much from it yet, but it is you know,

622
00:29:17,040 --> 00:29:19,360
Speaker 4: it's schedule adjusted. You know they are you know, it's

623
00:29:19,360 --> 00:29:21,240
Speaker 4: just a kind of gauge early in the season. But

624
00:29:21,280 --> 00:29:23,600
Speaker 4: it's funny to look at the Titans are thirtieth in

625
00:29:23,640 --> 00:29:27,640
Speaker 4: overall DVOA, even after that win against Seattle's still thirtieth,

626
00:29:27,960 --> 00:29:29,920
Speaker 4: and the Colts are twenty fifth because you know, I

627
00:29:30,080 --> 00:29:31,400
Speaker 4: strike the schedule plays ended at.

628
00:29:31,400 --> 00:29:34,080
Speaker 5: But yeah, this Titans team may still not be very good.

629
00:29:34,880 --> 00:29:38,680
Speaker 4: Uh, they have been good for about what two quarters,

630
00:29:38,920 --> 00:29:40,840
Speaker 4: two of the nine quarters they played this year.

631
00:29:41,200 --> 00:29:44,480
Speaker 2: They'be good. Their defense wasn't good. Just think it's a complete,

632
00:29:44,600 --> 00:29:47,160
Speaker 2: you know, defense that we don't think very highly of.

633
00:29:47,400 --> 00:29:49,080
Speaker 2: I think I threw this out earlier, but Week three

634
00:29:49,160 --> 00:29:51,960
Speaker 2: road underdogs who are zero to two forty one to

635
00:29:51,960 --> 00:29:54,320
Speaker 2: twenty eight one against the spread sixty percent, right around

636
00:29:54,320 --> 00:29:57,360
Speaker 2: sixty percent. Since two thousand and three, they're covering by

637
00:29:57,360 --> 00:29:59,800
Speaker 2: an average of about two points per game. I think

638
00:29:59,840 --> 00:30:01,400
Speaker 2: that that's what we're getting here. We're getting you know,

639
00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:03,760
Speaker 2: if you assume that if Wentz can't go, you're getting

640
00:30:03,800 --> 00:30:06,040
Speaker 2: a couple extra points, and that makes sense for the

641
00:30:06,120 --> 00:30:07,920
Speaker 2: road underdogs, right, So it's a team that's zero and two,

642
00:30:08,320 --> 00:30:09,960
Speaker 2: you know who wants to then back in zero to

643
00:30:10,040 --> 00:30:13,440
Speaker 2: two team on the road in week three as an underdog.

644
00:30:13,880 --> 00:30:16,640
Speaker 2: So it's generally speaking, you're probably going to get an

645
00:30:16,680 --> 00:30:18,880
Speaker 2: extra point or two with these teams, you know, in

646
00:30:18,920 --> 00:30:21,080
Speaker 2: two points, which I think we're getting if Easton goes

647
00:30:21,440 --> 00:30:25,160
Speaker 2: around three and four, even more important than two points

648
00:30:25,200 --> 00:30:27,240
Speaker 2: elsewhere if it was the difference between you know, say

649
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:30,480
Speaker 2: ten or twelve. So give me the desperate divisional road

650
00:30:30,520 --> 00:30:35,200
Speaker 2: dog with the better coaching staff here playing for their season.

651
00:30:35,240 --> 00:30:38,080
Speaker 2: They lose this and the schedule is an easy nest

652
00:30:38,120 --> 00:30:40,800
Speaker 2: of weeks. It's could get ugly for the Colts. I'm

653
00:30:40,800 --> 00:30:41,760
Speaker 2: sure you'll see it all here.

654
00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:44,520
Speaker 4: I think it might help if they don't have wins

655
00:30:44,560 --> 00:30:46,160
Speaker 4: and they get back to just running the ball.

656
00:30:46,040 --> 00:30:47,080
Speaker 5: And using these running backs.

657
00:30:47,080 --> 00:30:51,360
Speaker 4: Because last week Naim heines one carry two targets. You know,

658
00:30:51,440 --> 00:30:53,800
Speaker 4: as much as in fantasy, we've been frustrated at times,

659
00:30:53,800 --> 00:30:55,719
Speaker 4: but Hein is kind of eating into Jonathan Taylor.

660
00:30:56,560 --> 00:30:58,400
Speaker 5: I think Naim Heines is probably.

661
00:30:58,200 --> 00:31:01,640
Speaker 4: Like their second best skill point after Taylor running Taylor

662
00:31:01,680 --> 00:31:04,800
Speaker 4: twenty times. Giving Hines like ten touches, maybe five carries

663
00:31:04,800 --> 00:31:06,960
Speaker 4: and five catches, that might be the best thing to

664
00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:10,760
Speaker 4: do for their offense at this point. For my second pick,

665
00:31:12,360 --> 00:31:15,800
Speaker 4: any fourth overall pick of the week, number three Sunday

666
00:31:15,960 --> 00:31:19,960
Speaker 4: six pack, I am going with the Green Bay Pack

667
00:31:20,520 --> 00:31:23,280
Speaker 4: plus three and a half at the San Francisco forty

668
00:31:23,360 --> 00:31:26,840
Speaker 4: nine ers. I didn't think I was gonna like green

669
00:31:26,880 --> 00:31:28,680
Speaker 4: Bay here, and I didn't think I would get the

670
00:31:28,720 --> 00:31:32,080
Speaker 4: hook after they blew out Detroit on Monday night. But

671
00:31:32,160 --> 00:31:35,720
Speaker 4: alas here we are. I'm a little worried about Green

672
00:31:35,760 --> 00:31:38,720
Speaker 4: Bay's defense. They're not gonna get as much pressure. They're

673
00:31:38,760 --> 00:31:41,720
Speaker 4: not gonna get pressure without Smith. You know, they're gonna

674
00:31:41,720 --> 00:31:43,680
Speaker 4: have to blitz. But they still, you know, they're playing

675
00:31:43,680 --> 00:31:45,640
Speaker 4: more that two deep shell than they played in the past.

676
00:31:46,040 --> 00:31:48,880
Speaker 4: But I look at this Green Bay team and I

677
00:31:48,880 --> 00:31:50,360
Speaker 4: look at San Francisco coming.

678
00:31:50,200 --> 00:31:52,080
Speaker 5: You know, they're not that same team.

679
00:31:52,080 --> 00:31:54,200
Speaker 4: In twenty nineteen, when I was all over San Francisco

680
00:31:54,320 --> 00:31:57,480
Speaker 4: twice first matchup and the second matchup in the playoffs,

681
00:31:57,800 --> 00:32:00,200
Speaker 4: a lot of people didn't really believe in them. To

682
00:32:00,440 --> 00:32:02,400
Speaker 4: give Aaron Rodgers as many problems as they did. But

683
00:32:02,440 --> 00:32:04,560
Speaker 4: they could rush forward they you know, and get pressure

684
00:32:04,600 --> 00:32:07,360
Speaker 4: without it. But right now they're banged up at corner.

685
00:32:07,840 --> 00:32:09,920
Speaker 4: You know, they're not quite as good as they were

686
00:32:09,920 --> 00:32:12,720
Speaker 4: in twenty nineteen. Anyway, they've lost some pieces from that defense.

687
00:32:13,160 --> 00:32:15,800
Speaker 4: You have Robert Salah, he's in New York. Now, they

688
00:32:15,800 --> 00:32:18,320
Speaker 4: don't have any running backs like it's it's absurd, So

689
00:32:18,840 --> 00:32:20,760
Speaker 4: they're gonna want to lean on a run game against

690
00:32:20,920 --> 00:32:23,960
Speaker 4: Green Bay. Jay r Alexander he was playing in the

691
00:32:24,000 --> 00:32:27,200
Speaker 4: slot at times. I think he was practicing for following

692
00:32:27,240 --> 00:32:30,160
Speaker 4: Deebo Samuel round because he was going or maybe George Kittle,

693
00:32:30,160 --> 00:32:31,240
Speaker 4: who knows, but he was.

694
00:32:31,360 --> 00:32:32,920
Speaker 5: He's their best corner. He's going in slot.

695
00:32:32,960 --> 00:32:35,080
Speaker 4: So you know, if you want to take out Deebo

696
00:32:35,160 --> 00:32:38,360
Speaker 4: Samuel and then double Kittle you I mean, it's been

697
00:32:38,400 --> 00:32:40,840
Speaker 4: a motley crew of robbing door at the other receiver spot,

698
00:32:40,880 --> 00:32:43,160
Speaker 4: so you can't trust those guys. So to me, it's

699
00:32:43,200 --> 00:32:46,960
Speaker 4: a spot where San Francisco week at corner, Aaron Rodgers

700
00:32:47,040 --> 00:32:50,000
Speaker 4: gonna put up points. Now you're instead of talking about

701
00:32:50,040 --> 00:32:53,560
Speaker 4: like a defensive battle, where can Aaron Rodgers handle the pressure.

702
00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:56,760
Speaker 4: This and that I think you're looking at just simply

703
00:32:56,840 --> 00:32:59,520
Speaker 4: can Jimmy g make more plays than than Aaron Rodgers.

704
00:32:59,640 --> 00:33:03,360
Speaker 4: I don't think he can. And it's also a wet

705
00:33:03,360 --> 00:33:05,800
Speaker 4: down spot for San Francisco. And this is what really

706
00:33:05,840 --> 00:33:08,800
Speaker 4: makes me like the number, especially with the hook.

707
00:33:09,240 --> 00:33:10,480
Speaker 5: Kyle Shanahan first.

708
00:33:10,320 --> 00:33:13,880
Speaker 4: Of all, just eight and eighteen with one push against

709
00:33:13,920 --> 00:33:16,880
Speaker 4: the spread is a favorite. And he's just two and

710
00:33:16,960 --> 00:33:19,880
Speaker 4: seven against the spread when they come back home after

711
00:33:19,880 --> 00:33:22,520
Speaker 4: a multi game road trip. And this has been an issue,

712
00:33:22,520 --> 00:33:24,719
Speaker 4: and Shanay had admitted this, Like if you read some

713
00:33:24,800 --> 00:33:27,840
Speaker 4: of the interviews coming out of uh, you know Sam

714
00:33:27,880 --> 00:33:29,800
Speaker 4: Fan this week, you know, Beatwrights talked to him about it.

715
00:33:29,960 --> 00:33:32,760
Speaker 4: They've been really flat coming home after these you know,

716
00:33:33,400 --> 00:33:35,160
Speaker 4: you know trips down you know, out to the East

717
00:33:35,160 --> 00:33:37,160
Speaker 4: Coast wherever they go, multi game trips.

718
00:33:37,360 --> 00:33:38,440
Speaker 5: This is a wetdown spot.

719
00:33:38,520 --> 00:33:41,520
Speaker 4: West Coast teams on their first home game back after

720
00:33:41,560 --> 00:33:45,200
Speaker 4: a multi game road trip just fifty seven and eighty

721
00:33:45,320 --> 00:33:50,040
Speaker 4: five against the spread forty percent since two thousand and three.

722
00:33:50,480 --> 00:33:53,560
Speaker 4: Aaron Rodgers not you didn't used to be really good

723
00:33:53,600 --> 00:33:57,240
Speaker 4: as like a you know, underdog bet, but under Batt Lafleur,

724
00:33:57,560 --> 00:34:00,640
Speaker 4: he's won five of seven straight up as an underdog,

725
00:34:01,360 --> 00:34:03,680
Speaker 4: and then of course you have you know regular trends,

726
00:34:03,720 --> 00:34:07,760
Speaker 4: you know Week three underdogs, little kind of underrated period.

727
00:34:07,880 --> 00:34:09,760
Speaker 4: I think it applies more to the O and two teams,

728
00:34:09,760 --> 00:34:12,480
Speaker 4: But you still worth noting that WEK three dogs that

729
00:34:12,600 --> 00:34:15,120
Speaker 4: open under a touchdown are one oh four, seventy two

730
00:34:15,120 --> 00:34:17,719
Speaker 4: and five against the spread. But I just think there's

731
00:34:17,719 --> 00:34:19,440
Speaker 4: a wet down spot for San frank green Bay still

732
00:34:19,480 --> 00:34:21,839
Speaker 4: gonna be hungry, and green Bay already played their primetime game,

733
00:34:22,040 --> 00:34:23,799
Speaker 4: So San Francisco is gonna have some young guys in

734
00:34:23,800 --> 00:34:26,120
Speaker 4: the backfield that really haven't taken amunt of handoff from

735
00:34:26,200 --> 00:34:29,320
Speaker 4: Jimmy g Uh. Trey Lance maybe gets in this one.

736
00:34:29,320 --> 00:34:33,200
Speaker 4: Some younger cornerbacks uh diamedor Lenoro will probably be out there.

737
00:34:33,320 --> 00:34:35,520
Speaker 4: Tony got burned on a ninety one yarder from Ques

738
00:34:35,560 --> 00:34:38,359
Speaker 4: Watkins last week. Uh, this is their first primetime game.

739
00:34:38,520 --> 00:34:40,640
Speaker 4: First home game was also the first primetime game. I

740
00:34:40,680 --> 00:34:42,479
Speaker 4: think green Bay, even though they're on a short week,

741
00:34:43,000 --> 00:34:45,680
Speaker 4: they're gonna be chilling, they're gonna be relaxed. They still

742
00:34:45,719 --> 00:34:47,439
Speaker 4: have things to kind of improve on, so they're gonna

743
00:34:47,440 --> 00:34:49,200
Speaker 4: be hungry. They're gonna They're not gonna want to hear

744
00:34:49,239 --> 00:34:51,080
Speaker 4: the critics if they go to one and two and

745
00:34:51,120 --> 00:34:52,120
Speaker 4: their only winners.

746
00:34:51,840 --> 00:34:53,480
Speaker 5: Against the lowly Detroit Lions.

747
00:34:53,600 --> 00:34:55,759
Speaker 4: So I think they're gonna be the hungry your team, Uh,

748
00:34:55,960 --> 00:34:57,479
Speaker 4: gimme green Bay plus three and a half.

749
00:34:58,160 --> 00:35:02,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, if I had to take this game, I would

750
00:35:02,120 --> 00:35:07,440
Speaker 2: take the Packers with the hook. If you remember the

751
00:35:07,480 --> 00:35:10,600
Speaker 2: Packers did finally they were blown out by the forty

752
00:35:10,680 --> 00:35:15,719
Speaker 2: nine Ers and two straight too straight year. Yeah, last

753
00:35:15,800 --> 00:35:19,480
Speaker 2: year they finally got the better of stand friend on

754
00:35:19,520 --> 00:35:21,480
Speaker 2: the road with Where was that game out?

755
00:35:21,480 --> 00:35:23,960
Speaker 5: I don't eve I remember that was in San Francisco.

756
00:35:24,000 --> 00:35:26,120
Speaker 2: I think it was. There's no fans, but yeah, okay

757
00:35:26,239 --> 00:35:28,560
Speaker 2: it was. I think it was Nick Mullen.

758
00:35:28,920 --> 00:35:30,600
Speaker 5: Was Richie James game out?

759
00:35:30,600 --> 00:35:35,239
Speaker 2: Think Chie James had one hundred and ninety yards? Yeah,

760
00:35:35,400 --> 00:35:37,480
Speaker 2: So you can't really take too much from that game.

761
00:35:37,680 --> 00:35:42,480
Speaker 2: What scares me is just this is the type of

762
00:35:42,680 --> 00:35:45,600
Speaker 2: defense that Shanahan can just it doesn't matter who's back there.

763
00:35:45,800 --> 00:35:48,040
Speaker 2: They can just run all day on and a lot

764
00:35:48,080 --> 00:35:50,359
Speaker 2: of teams get run on. Look at New Orleans. Did

765
00:35:50,560 --> 00:35:53,640
Speaker 2: Detroit had success running the ball? That's what scares me.

766
00:35:53,840 --> 00:35:55,880
Speaker 2: On the other side of the ball, Ruders should put

767
00:35:55,960 --> 00:35:57,760
Speaker 2: up points like who's covering Devanta Adams.

768
00:35:57,840 --> 00:35:58,759
Speaker 5: But I don't know.

769
00:35:58,840 --> 00:36:01,200
Speaker 2: I want to see if some of these teams follow

770
00:36:01,719 --> 00:36:04,520
Speaker 2: what we've seen defenses do against Rogers. In the first

771
00:36:04,600 --> 00:36:07,120
Speaker 2: two games. You saw the Saints to it, and then

772
00:36:07,400 --> 00:36:10,359
Speaker 2: the Lions copied it. Really impressed with what Aaron Glenn did.

773
00:36:10,600 --> 00:36:12,719
Speaker 2: Aaron Glenn I was always a huge critic of the

774
00:36:12,800 --> 00:36:15,239
Speaker 2: lines for many reasons, but under Matt Patricia because he

775
00:36:15,239 --> 00:36:17,239
Speaker 2: would just run the same defense over and over again.

776
00:36:17,280 --> 00:36:19,200
Speaker 2: He would just run Cover one and that's it and

777
00:36:19,239 --> 00:36:23,000
Speaker 2: then not blitz and like but week one, Aaron Glenn

778
00:36:23,080 --> 00:36:25,080
Speaker 2: the new defense quartera for lines. He was running cover one,

779
00:36:25,200 --> 00:36:28,799
Speaker 2: Cover three and blitzing a lot. Last week he ran

780
00:36:28,920 --> 00:36:32,200
Speaker 2: pretty much too high safety and said, we're gonna take

781
00:36:32,239 --> 00:36:35,880
Speaker 2: away your big play. Now the Lions don't have the

782
00:36:35,920 --> 00:36:40,440
Speaker 2: personnel to stop Aaron Jones to stop the tight ends

783
00:36:40,480 --> 00:36:44,160
Speaker 2: and like credit to Rogers, you know, he basically just said, look,

784
00:36:44,160 --> 00:36:46,440
Speaker 2: I'm gonna take what you give me. But the Lions

785
00:36:46,520 --> 00:36:48,640
Speaker 2: had success. I mean, look, the Lions, they had a

786
00:36:48,680 --> 00:36:50,480
Speaker 2: fun they were in that game in the second half.

787
00:36:50,520 --> 00:36:54,319
Speaker 2: They had a fumbled snap, a bad PI in the

788
00:36:54,400 --> 00:36:56,759
Speaker 2: end zone. But I want to say, if if the

789
00:36:56,800 --> 00:36:58,399
Speaker 2: forty nine ers do that and they say, look, we're

790
00:36:58,400 --> 00:37:01,160
Speaker 2: just gonna go too high and they have better personnel

791
00:37:01,600 --> 00:37:04,800
Speaker 2: to match up with Jones as far as covering backs

792
00:37:04,800 --> 00:37:06,640
Speaker 2: and tight end, I can't argue with you.

793
00:37:07,320 --> 00:37:09,919
Speaker 5: Yeah, the Packers are by no means dominant, but neither

794
00:37:09,960 --> 00:37:10,719
Speaker 5: of San Francisco.

795
00:37:11,080 --> 00:37:13,080
Speaker 2: We're about to argue this. For my fifth overall the

796
00:37:13,120 --> 00:37:19,800
Speaker 2: Sunday six pack, I'm going with, sadly, the Jacksonville Jaguars

797
00:37:19,880 --> 00:37:25,000
Speaker 2: plus seven and a half against the Arizona Caddals. Let

798
00:37:25,040 --> 00:37:30,279
Speaker 2: me make a declaration. We are not betting sorry, I

799
00:37:30,320 --> 00:37:33,080
Speaker 2: know you're wearing it. We are not betting the Jacksonville Jaguars.

800
00:37:33,160 --> 00:37:37,200
Speaker 2: We are fading Cliff Kingsbury as a favorite, which we did.

801
00:37:37,160 --> 00:37:40,640
Speaker 5: Last week Cliff Kingsbury.

802
00:37:41,000 --> 00:37:43,759
Speaker 2: So I look, the Jags were like, on my only

803
00:37:43,800 --> 00:37:47,279
Speaker 2: bad call last week, Trevor Lawrence going up against that

804
00:37:47,480 --> 00:37:50,759
Speaker 2: Vic Fangio defense, maybe I should have, you know, aired

805
00:37:50,800 --> 00:37:53,239
Speaker 2: on the side of caution and said I'll pass. He's

806
00:37:53,239 --> 00:37:55,840
Speaker 2: been awful. Out of any quarterback, all quarterbacks with mien

807
00:37:55,920 --> 00:37:59,680
Speaker 2: him fifty dropbacks, he's has the he's been great, the worst,

808
00:38:00,440 --> 00:38:04,160
Speaker 2: just ahead of Zach Wilson and Ben Roethlisberger. Those are

809
00:38:04,400 --> 00:38:06,719
Speaker 2: the three worst this year. So he's been bad. But

810
00:38:06,800 --> 00:38:08,279
Speaker 2: you know, I give him a pass on the first

811
00:38:08,320 --> 00:38:11,040
Speaker 2: game as a rookie. The second he's playing that tough defense.

812
00:38:11,080 --> 00:38:13,560
Speaker 2: He's gonna have some more opportunities this week. You hope

813
00:38:13,600 --> 00:38:16,440
Speaker 2: that he settles in. But I'm not gonna sit here

814
00:38:16,440 --> 00:38:19,319
Speaker 2: and wax poetic about the Jaguars. You could say that

815
00:38:19,480 --> 00:38:22,120
Speaker 2: Urban Myers a dumpson fire. You could even say Trevor

816
00:38:22,160 --> 00:38:24,680
Speaker 2: Lawrence would be a bust, and maybe that's so. Maybe

817
00:38:24,719 --> 00:38:26,759
Speaker 2: that at the end of the year, this line should

818
00:38:26,800 --> 00:38:29,520
Speaker 2: have been fourteen and they'll be historically bad. But I'm

819
00:38:29,600 --> 00:38:31,640
Speaker 2: just playing my number year. I can't adjust this to

820
00:38:31,680 --> 00:38:35,640
Speaker 2: over a touchdown. I was praying, praying when I need

821
00:38:35,880 --> 00:38:37,879
Speaker 2: before the line's come out, I said, just sit. It's

822
00:38:38,000 --> 00:38:39,959
Speaker 2: just come out at six and a half and sit

823
00:38:40,040 --> 00:38:42,640
Speaker 2: there all week and I won't have to play the Jags. Well,

824
00:38:42,800 --> 00:38:44,480
Speaker 2: it came out at seven and a half, so I

825
00:38:44,520 --> 00:38:45,800
Speaker 2: have to. I have to play him touch on. I

826
00:38:45,800 --> 00:38:48,040
Speaker 2: told myself I got to play them over touchdown, and

827
00:38:48,120 --> 00:38:50,879
Speaker 2: I'm doing it. It's number one. I'm you're getting value

828
00:38:50,880 --> 00:38:52,480
Speaker 2: because the Jags look so bad. No on what's the

829
00:38:52,520 --> 00:38:53,920
Speaker 2: bat them? Who? What's the betom here? I'm gonna be

830
00:38:53,960 --> 00:38:56,239
Speaker 2: an island in this game. Everyone has seen, you know,

831
00:38:56,320 --> 00:38:59,480
Speaker 2: Kyler Murray make all these plays. The exciting Cardinals are

832
00:38:59,480 --> 00:39:01,759
Speaker 2: two and now. Well, we talked about that first game

833
00:39:01,800 --> 00:39:03,400
Speaker 2: I was on the Cardinals. That was all about the

834
00:39:03,440 --> 00:39:07,000
Speaker 2: Titans just being a mess. Second game, they play the

835
00:39:07,080 --> 00:39:09,440
Speaker 2: Vikings in a game the Vikings should have won. Vikings

836
00:39:09,440 --> 00:39:13,160
Speaker 2: outplayed them in their own building and miss a thirty

837
00:39:13,200 --> 00:39:16,919
Speaker 2: yard field goals as time expires to win that game.

838
00:39:17,480 --> 00:39:19,600
Speaker 2: The Cardinals defense, as we said, is not the eighty

839
00:39:19,640 --> 00:39:21,560
Speaker 2: five Bears, It's not the two thousand gree's. That first

840
00:39:21,560 --> 00:39:23,239
Speaker 2: game is just a dud by the Titans because of

841
00:39:23,239 --> 00:39:25,839
Speaker 2: all the things that they were dealing with. So Trevor

842
00:39:25,920 --> 00:39:28,920
Speaker 2: Lawrence will have more of an opportunity this week. This

843
00:39:29,120 --> 00:39:32,640
Speaker 2: is the Jags season. You're buying them at maybe at

844
00:39:32,640 --> 00:39:35,160
Speaker 2: their lowest point if they're historically bad. You're not. But

845
00:39:35,680 --> 00:39:38,480
Speaker 2: they're at home OH and two playing a team, by

846
00:39:38,480 --> 00:39:41,560
Speaker 2: the way, is two andel coming east with the forty

847
00:39:41,640 --> 00:39:44,040
Speaker 2: nine ers in the Rams on deck and they're playing

848
00:39:44,040 --> 00:39:47,000
Speaker 2: an out of conference OH and two team. Huge flat spot,

849
00:39:47,480 --> 00:39:52,600
Speaker 2: especially for Cliff Kingsbury. I could see the Cardinals being unprepared, undisciplined,

850
00:39:52,920 --> 00:39:55,480
Speaker 2: making a lot of penalties. But this is a very

851
00:39:55,600 --> 00:39:57,840
Speaker 2: rare occurrence to get an O and two team catching

852
00:39:57,960 --> 00:40:01,200
Speaker 2: seven or more points at home. And whenever you're catching

853
00:40:01,200 --> 00:40:04,320
Speaker 2: over seven points at home in the NFL, I'm interested

854
00:40:04,440 --> 00:40:06,920
Speaker 2: fifty five percent. Since two thousand and three against the spread,

855
00:40:07,239 --> 00:40:10,279
Speaker 2: there's only been five teams that have been seven or

856
00:40:10,280 --> 00:40:14,040
Speaker 2: more point underdogs in Week three after starting zero to two.

857
00:40:14,440 --> 00:40:16,719
Speaker 2: And this will make you a little more comfortable if

858
00:40:16,719 --> 00:40:19,280
Speaker 2: you want to to back, you know, a little hesitant

859
00:40:19,280 --> 00:40:21,360
Speaker 2: to back Trevor Lawrence and never mar which I understand.

860
00:40:21,680 --> 00:40:25,080
Speaker 2: Twenty eighteen Lions people were saying, and these are all

861
00:40:25,080 --> 00:40:27,400
Speaker 2: teams whore like they're gonna go in sixteen Lions. You

862
00:40:27,440 --> 00:40:29,280
Speaker 2: did get the back Matt Stafford, but they were plus

863
00:40:29,280 --> 00:40:32,200
Speaker 2: seven at home against the Patriots. They won by twenty.

864
00:40:32,760 --> 00:40:35,480
Speaker 2: That was Matt the pinnacle, Matt Patricia when they beat

865
00:40:35,480 --> 00:40:37,280
Speaker 2: the Patriots. Okay, it was all downhill from.

866
00:40:37,160 --> 00:40:38,799
Speaker 5: There, all yea, they were.

867
00:40:38,719 --> 00:40:40,759
Speaker 2: Seven point dogs. They won out right by I think

868
00:40:40,800 --> 00:40:46,279
Speaker 2: sixteen or seventeen. Two thousand and seventeen Bears, you had

869
00:40:46,440 --> 00:40:49,719
Speaker 2: Mike Glennon seven point Dogs against the Steelers. Shocker Mike

870
00:40:49,760 --> 00:40:54,440
Speaker 2: Tomlin Bears went outright twenty three seventeen, twenty eleven Colts

871
00:40:54,880 --> 00:40:57,799
Speaker 2: owing two Colts plus ten and a half against that

872
00:40:57,920 --> 00:41:03,160
Speaker 2: home against the Steelers, Mike Tomlin, shocker. Kertie Collins was

873
00:41:03,200 --> 00:41:07,000
Speaker 2: your quarterback. The Colts actually lost twenty three to twenty

874
00:41:07,200 --> 00:41:10,760
Speaker 2: but covered. Two thousand and six the Browns and Charlie

875
00:41:10,800 --> 00:41:14,640
Speaker 2: Frye plus seven at home against the Ravens lost fifteen

876
00:41:14,680 --> 00:41:17,480
Speaker 2: to fourteen, and two thousand and three the Cardinals plus

877
00:41:17,520 --> 00:41:22,560
Speaker 2: seven with Jeff Blake. They beat the Packers in two

878
00:41:22,560 --> 00:41:24,080
Speaker 2: thousand and three, they went out right, So three of

879
00:41:24,160 --> 00:41:26,920
Speaker 2: the five won out right, all five covered with ease.

880
00:41:27,360 --> 00:41:29,520
Speaker 2: So and these are bad teams. These are teams that

881
00:41:29,600 --> 00:41:34,080
Speaker 2: finished to combine fifteen and forty nine. So this is

882
00:41:34,160 --> 00:41:37,360
Speaker 2: like a best effort. Whatever the Jags have, it's just

883
00:41:37,760 --> 00:41:40,440
Speaker 2: whatever Erba Meyer has. The play CON's in bad. You

884
00:41:40,600 --> 00:41:42,600
Speaker 2: have to see it here. And it's also just a

885
00:41:42,719 --> 00:41:47,399
Speaker 2: terrible flat spot for the Cardinals. But look, all I'm

886
00:41:47,400 --> 00:41:49,319
Speaker 2: doing is playing the number. I don't make this over

887
00:41:49,360 --> 00:41:53,520
Speaker 2: a touchdown. I'm getting over a touchdown with a home

888
00:41:53,600 --> 00:41:56,439
Speaker 2: dog catching you know, a favorite and a band spot

889
00:41:56,480 --> 00:41:59,400
Speaker 2: with a coach I don't like. So I'm just playing

890
00:41:59,680 --> 00:42:03,160
Speaker 2: the umber here. It's ugly in the cliff fade, we

891
00:42:03,239 --> 00:42:06,840
Speaker 2: trust am. I scared a fucking lutely, But let's go, Jaggs.

892
00:42:07,400 --> 00:42:09,560
Speaker 5: I knew you're gonna take this. I just knew it.

893
00:42:09,640 --> 00:42:11,560
Speaker 4: I'm gonna let you keep doing it, like I this

894
00:42:11,640 --> 00:42:16,520
Speaker 4: is It's the same time I might be done. Yeah,

895
00:42:18,719 --> 00:42:20,719
Speaker 4: I'm at the point where like Urban Meyer is like

896
00:42:20,800 --> 00:42:23,360
Speaker 4: Dan Quinn and Anthony Wade already for I agree in principle,

897
00:42:23,440 --> 00:42:25,520
Speaker 4: Like just like last week, I think I think that number,

898
00:42:25,800 --> 00:42:28,920
Speaker 4: like in principle, Denver, what is it? Six on the

899
00:42:29,000 --> 00:42:32,080
Speaker 4: road for Denver was just too high. And like you

900
00:42:32,120 --> 00:42:34,680
Speaker 4: know the Cardinals, you know they're I think they're Like

901
00:42:34,719 --> 00:42:36,239
Speaker 4: I said, this one convinced me last week. I think

902
00:42:36,239 --> 00:42:38,120
Speaker 4: they're a mediocre tea And that's why I bet against

903
00:42:38,160 --> 00:42:41,080
Speaker 4: them with the Vikings. And by the way, ridiculously enough,

904
00:42:41,320 --> 00:42:44,359
Speaker 4: the Cardinals were the biggest public side of last week.

905
00:42:44,600 --> 00:42:47,040
Speaker 4: Now I'm really interested to see what's gonna happen this week,

906
00:42:47,080 --> 00:42:47,759
Speaker 4: cause now they're going to.

907
00:42:48,080 --> 00:42:49,359
Speaker 2: Don't be the bigges part you want to that they'll

908
00:42:49,360 --> 00:42:51,040
Speaker 2: be the biggest public time seven and a half point.

909
00:42:52,719 --> 00:42:58,040
Speaker 4: I would not bet the Cardinals in the spot, I'll

910
00:42:58,080 --> 00:42:59,880
Speaker 4: say that, but I'm gonna.

911
00:42:59,680 --> 00:43:03,200
Speaker 5: Contin with my every man has to have principles, all right.

912
00:43:03,280 --> 00:43:06,560
Speaker 4: In one of mine, I'm not back in Meyer into

913
00:43:06,880 --> 00:43:08,600
Speaker 4: until you cover an urban Meyer bet.

914
00:43:08,800 --> 00:43:09,879
Speaker 5: I'm not back in urban Mayer.

915
00:43:10,000 --> 00:43:11,960
Speaker 4: If you don't hit this one, just keep doubling up.

916
00:43:12,080 --> 00:43:14,359
Speaker 4: I'm sure he'll cover at some point. For my third

917
00:43:14,360 --> 00:43:16,600
Speaker 4: and final pick of the week three Sunday six Pack,

918
00:43:17,040 --> 00:43:21,080
Speaker 4: the sixth overall pick, I'm going with the Washington football

919
00:43:21,120 --> 00:43:24,120
Speaker 4: team plus eight against the Buffalo Bills.

920
00:43:24,800 --> 00:43:26,440
Speaker 5: This is one where I just.

921
00:43:26,400 --> 00:43:29,319
Speaker 4: Think it's it falls into the bucket of too many

922
00:43:29,320 --> 00:43:32,040
Speaker 4: points in what I expect to be a low scoring

923
00:43:32,120 --> 00:43:36,480
Speaker 4: game between two coaches that have familiarity with each other.

924
00:43:36,600 --> 00:43:38,759
Speaker 5: Ron Rivera Sean McDermott.

925
00:43:38,840 --> 00:43:42,799
Speaker 4: McDermott coach under Rivera for the defense in Carolina. At

926
00:43:42,880 --> 00:43:45,399
Speaker 4: one point, Tara heinicky. I think he looked a lot

927
00:43:45,440 --> 00:43:48,239
Speaker 4: better than I think he is actually a lot better

928
00:43:48,280 --> 00:43:49,160
Speaker 4: than people think.

929
00:43:49,320 --> 00:43:52,640
Speaker 5: He's not great, but it's he's not like a quarterback.

930
00:43:52,760 --> 00:43:53,719
Speaker 5: He's not a Davis Mills.

931
00:43:53,760 --> 00:43:55,719
Speaker 4: He's not just like you look and say, oh my god,

932
00:43:55,760 --> 00:43:58,440
Speaker 4: he's gonna lose you a game. I think, Tara Heinecky,

933
00:43:59,080 --> 00:44:01,440
Speaker 4: it's gonna be kind of a past guy in this spot.

934
00:44:01,600 --> 00:44:05,680
Speaker 4: And let's remember Washington's had just a revolving door of

935
00:44:05,719 --> 00:44:10,279
Speaker 4: shit quarterbacks since Ron Rivera took over. Despite that, and

936
00:44:10,320 --> 00:44:14,479
Speaker 4: even though they are just eight and ten straight up,

937
00:44:14,960 --> 00:44:19,720
Speaker 4: only four of their eighteen games have ended with the

938
00:44:19,840 --> 00:44:23,719
Speaker 4: Washington football team in a deficit of eight or more points.

939
00:44:23,880 --> 00:44:26,720
Speaker 4: So this is the team that they're gonna keep it close.

940
00:44:26,760 --> 00:44:29,000
Speaker 4: Their defense is probably, like you said, stuck, not quite

941
00:44:29,040 --> 00:44:31,200
Speaker 4: as good as we thought, but they're still gonna be

942
00:44:31,239 --> 00:44:34,120
Speaker 4: able to create some pressure. Josh Allen's not playing as

943
00:44:34,160 --> 00:44:36,880
Speaker 4: well as even with that thirty five nights bowout, not

944
00:44:36,960 --> 00:44:39,600
Speaker 4: playing as well as I think he could, you know,

945
00:44:39,680 --> 00:44:40,400
Speaker 4: for Buffalo.

946
00:44:40,680 --> 00:44:42,640
Speaker 5: So really, I just think it's gonna be a low

947
00:44:42,680 --> 00:44:43,320
Speaker 5: scoring game.

948
00:44:43,920 --> 00:44:45,800
Speaker 4: I think this is a you know, getting over a

949
00:44:45,880 --> 00:44:48,360
Speaker 4: touch I make this game just under a touchdown. So

950
00:44:48,360 --> 00:44:49,920
Speaker 4: I'm on the other side of the key number, which

951
00:44:49,960 --> 00:44:51,920
Speaker 4: I really like. If you could, if you get the

952
00:44:51,960 --> 00:44:53,360
Speaker 4: eight and a half, I mean, you're that's where I

953
00:44:53,360 --> 00:44:55,319
Speaker 4: got it. You're really in played, because now you're talking

954
00:44:55,360 --> 00:44:58,239
Speaker 4: about more than a one possession game, and I just

955
00:44:58,239 --> 00:45:00,000
Speaker 4: think it's too many points for Washington.

956
00:45:00,560 --> 00:45:02,719
Speaker 5: I think they hang around. I wouldn't be surprised if

957
00:45:02,760 --> 00:45:03,200
Speaker 5: they win it.

958
00:45:03,239 --> 00:45:05,200
Speaker 4: I think Buffalo just had a you know, a hiccup

959
00:45:05,200 --> 00:45:07,120
Speaker 4: against Pittsburgh in Week one. So I'm not saying I'm

960
00:45:07,120 --> 00:45:09,680
Speaker 4: not saying Buffalo's out here, you know, as a bad

961
00:45:09,680 --> 00:45:10,600
Speaker 4: team right there or there.

962
00:45:10,600 --> 00:45:12,480
Speaker 5: They were kind of overhyped or anything. I think Buffalo

963
00:45:12,560 --> 00:45:13,320
Speaker 5: is still really good.

964
00:45:13,760 --> 00:45:15,920
Speaker 4: But again, you have a Week three underdog versus a

965
00:45:15,920 --> 00:45:18,640
Speaker 4: favorite who covered in Week two sixty percent against the

966
00:45:18,640 --> 00:45:21,160
Speaker 4: spread since two thousand and three. And if you're a

967
00:45:21,160 --> 00:45:23,640
Speaker 4: little worried about Washington, one thing you could try to

968
00:45:23,680 --> 00:45:26,200
Speaker 4: do is maybe you go like half the unit, you know,

969
00:45:26,320 --> 00:45:28,560
Speaker 4: on the spread before the game, and if they get down,

970
00:45:28,640 --> 00:45:31,160
Speaker 4: you take another half in the second half. Washington is

971
00:45:31,200 --> 00:45:34,799
Speaker 4: thirteen and four against the spread under Ron Rivera in

972
00:45:34,840 --> 00:45:37,759
Speaker 4: the second half, so that's another way to approach it.

973
00:45:37,800 --> 00:45:39,040
Speaker 5: But I just think there's too many points.

974
00:45:39,080 --> 00:45:41,880
Speaker 4: I think Washington hangs around in this one on the

975
00:45:41,880 --> 00:45:44,640
Speaker 4: strength of their defense. We saw Terry McLaurin, you know,

976
00:45:44,719 --> 00:45:47,440
Speaker 4: be able to beat a good number one corner in Bradbury.

977
00:45:47,520 --> 00:45:49,560
Speaker 4: I think, you know, he'll he'll have some success in

978
00:45:49,560 --> 00:45:52,160
Speaker 4: this game. I think Washington still be able to move

979
00:45:52,200 --> 00:45:53,800
Speaker 4: the ball and they'll play some defense, maybe even for

980
00:45:53,920 --> 00:45:56,640
Speaker 4: stretch down into a turnover to and they keep it close.

981
00:45:56,719 --> 00:45:59,640
Speaker 4: So Washington plus eight at Buffalo.

982
00:46:01,160 --> 00:46:03,320
Speaker 2: Yeah, I've been watching it as a couple extra days prepare,

983
00:46:03,360 --> 00:46:05,520
Speaker 2: but they've just been really unimpressive to me. This year

984
00:46:07,080 --> 00:46:09,800
Speaker 2: defense is stunked. They can't cover anybody. They're not getting

985
00:46:09,800 --> 00:46:11,359
Speaker 2: this big and we said it. I said it up

986
00:46:11,360 --> 00:46:13,600
Speaker 2: coming into the year. This defense is overrated. I think

987
00:46:13,640 --> 00:46:16,200
Speaker 2: the difference will be Buffalo's defense. I don't hate to

988
00:46:16,239 --> 00:46:18,880
Speaker 2: play from a value perspective, and look, if you are

989
00:46:18,960 --> 00:46:20,520
Speaker 2: a trend player out there, teams are covered by more

990
00:46:20,560 --> 00:46:22,400
Speaker 2: than twenty eight since two thousand and three, or just

991
00:46:22,480 --> 00:46:24,879
Speaker 2: forty three point nine percent eighty two one o, five

992
00:46:24,920 --> 00:46:27,520
Speaker 2: and six. But I don't hate it. Something to keep

993
00:46:27,520 --> 00:46:29,680
Speaker 2: an eye on here. Keep it out on the wind.

994
00:46:30,480 --> 00:46:33,840
Speaker 2: As always in any Bill's home game, you want to

995
00:46:33,880 --> 00:46:35,120
Speaker 2: keep it on the wind. Right now, I think there

996
00:46:35,120 --> 00:46:37,080
Speaker 2: was projected for like twenty mile a hour wins. But

997
00:46:37,400 --> 00:46:40,560
Speaker 2: I think Allen with his legs, the Bill's defense and

998
00:46:40,760 --> 00:46:45,040
Speaker 2: this overrated still figuring it out. Washington defense will prevent

999
00:46:45,080 --> 00:46:48,040
Speaker 2: them having a shot of winning, But I don't mind

1000
00:46:48,080 --> 00:46:49,440
Speaker 2: taking the eight and a half points too.

1001
00:46:49,840 --> 00:46:52,120
Speaker 4: You want to hear crazy that it's been fourteen games

1002
00:46:52,120 --> 00:46:55,360
Speaker 4: since Washington lost by eight or more if in the

1003
00:46:55,400 --> 00:46:57,319
Speaker 4: regular season. In the playoffs they had and they lost

1004
00:46:57,360 --> 00:47:00,279
Speaker 4: by exactly eight against the Super Bowl champion Bucks. So yeah,

1005
00:47:00,280 --> 00:47:02,080
Speaker 4: it's not a better than them winning the game. I

1006
00:47:02,520 --> 00:47:06,359
Speaker 4: think they keep all right. The recap, Stuck is going

1007
00:47:06,400 --> 00:47:10,440
Speaker 4: with Miami plus four at Vegas, Indianapolis plus five and

1008
00:47:10,480 --> 00:47:16,920
Speaker 4: a half at Tennessee, and the Jacksonville Jaguars plus seven

1009
00:47:16,960 --> 00:47:18,040
Speaker 4: and a half.

1010
00:47:17,840 --> 00:47:22,000
Speaker 2: Host for Saton and Lawrence. What could go wrong?

1011
00:47:22,920 --> 00:47:25,000
Speaker 4: Looten, I'm not even gonna group Lawrence into that for now.

1012
00:47:25,040 --> 00:47:27,759
Speaker 4: I think that's all Meyer, Like I'm just that's just me.

1013
00:47:27,920 --> 00:47:29,319
Speaker 4: I just think, I mean, Lawrence.

1014
00:47:29,000 --> 00:47:29,600
Speaker 5: Hasn't played well.

1015
00:47:29,600 --> 00:47:32,360
Speaker 4: His receivers haven't outside of Marvin Jones, haven't really played

1016
00:47:32,360 --> 00:47:32,719
Speaker 4: that well.

1017
00:47:32,800 --> 00:47:35,600
Speaker 5: But I just think it's all Meyer. But I digress.

1018
00:47:36,480 --> 00:47:40,560
Speaker 4: For the recap, So stuck, Miami, Indy, Jacksonville, I'm going

1019
00:47:40,560 --> 00:47:43,239
Speaker 4: Atlanta plus three at the New York Giants, Green Bay

1020
00:47:43,320 --> 00:47:46,120
Speaker 4: plus three and a half at the San Francisco forty

1021
00:47:46,160 --> 00:47:50,759
Speaker 4: nine ers, and Washington plus eight at Buffalo. That is

1022
00:47:50,800 --> 00:47:52,480
Speaker 4: going to do it for our six pack. We'll get

1023
00:47:52,520 --> 00:47:54,920
Speaker 4: into our total, but before that, let's get to our

1024
00:47:54,960 --> 00:47:56,120
Speaker 4: coaches pep talk.

1025
00:47:56,560 --> 00:47:58,280
Speaker 5: For today's Coaches pep Talk, our.

1026
00:47:58,120 --> 00:48:01,680
Speaker 4: Producer Matt Mitchell grabbed quick from We know it's his

1027
00:48:01,760 --> 00:48:03,880
Speaker 4: favorite film. He wants me to say it's the podcast

1028
00:48:03,920 --> 00:48:05,839
Speaker 4: favorite film, but really, you know, it's just his favorite from.

1029
00:48:05,880 --> 00:48:08,040
Speaker 4: I like Blue Chips too, but let's be real, We've

1030
00:48:08,040 --> 00:48:10,960
Speaker 4: had like thirty seven Blue Chips segments.

1031
00:48:10,520 --> 00:48:11,959
Speaker 5: Out of thirty eight podcasts.

1032
00:48:12,280 --> 00:48:16,160
Speaker 4: But it's from Blue Chips. I'm sure he keeps sneaking

1033
00:48:16,160 --> 00:48:19,239
Speaker 4: this shit into our pods. We gotta dedicate this one

1034
00:48:19,239 --> 00:48:20,200
Speaker 4: to your boy Urban Meyer.

1035
00:48:20,760 --> 00:48:22,120
Speaker 2: He needs all the pep talks he can get.

1036
00:48:22,200 --> 00:48:22,520
Speaker 4: Right now.

1037
00:48:23,280 --> 00:48:25,479
Speaker 2: This is by far the worst team that has ever

1038
00:48:25,560 --> 00:48:26,759
Speaker 2: sat in this locker room.

1039
00:48:27,800 --> 00:48:30,879
Speaker 5: The locker room you should be playing without you. There's

1040
00:48:30,920 --> 00:48:33,440
Speaker 5: not one of you, not one of you that's to

1041
00:48:33,480 --> 00:48:33,879
Speaker 5: how to win.

1042
00:48:34,320 --> 00:48:37,759
Speaker 4: All right, let's get into our favorite total of the

1043
00:48:37,800 --> 00:48:39,520
Speaker 4: week and stuck.

1044
00:48:39,560 --> 00:48:41,800
Speaker 5: Where are you going with your favorite total for this week?

1045
00:48:42,000 --> 00:48:43,759
Speaker 2: All right, we'll make it quick here, I'd put it

1046
00:48:43,800 --> 00:48:46,960
Speaker 2: in the app. I'm still going very small on all

1047
00:48:47,080 --> 00:48:50,960
Speaker 2: my total bets, And the reason for that is I'm

1048
00:48:50,960 --> 00:48:53,520
Speaker 2: still trying to adjust to all right, what is home

1049
00:48:53,560 --> 00:48:56,239
Speaker 2: field meaning to the offenses if anything? And then the

1050
00:48:56,280 --> 00:49:00,240
Speaker 2: penalty initiatives? What is changing with penalties this year caned

1051
00:49:00,280 --> 00:49:01,799
Speaker 2: to last last year? In Week one there was only

1052
00:49:01,840 --> 00:49:05,239
Speaker 2: eighteen holding penalties, but the year before there was fifty eight.

1053
00:49:05,920 --> 00:49:11,080
Speaker 2: Then this year we saw fifty four, fifty three, fifty

1054
00:49:11,080 --> 00:49:14,200
Speaker 2: four if you include declined holding calls, and then which

1055
00:49:14,280 --> 00:49:15,920
Speaker 2: is way back up. So did the NFL say, look,

1056
00:49:15,960 --> 00:49:19,280
Speaker 2: we want more holding calls last week in the forties,

1057
00:49:19,360 --> 00:49:22,319
Speaker 2: So maybe so, but I need more data than two weeks.

1058
00:49:22,360 --> 00:49:25,200
Speaker 2: So and those impact took you know, a couple drives

1059
00:49:25,200 --> 00:49:28,000
Speaker 2: get killed by holding calls, a couple extra drives, that's

1060
00:49:28,040 --> 00:49:31,719
Speaker 2: just massive for totals. But uh so going smaller. But

1061
00:49:31,880 --> 00:49:35,240
Speaker 2: Lions Ravens under fifty and a half at bet MGM

1062
00:49:35,719 --> 00:49:39,000
Speaker 2: two heavy run teams here. I know the Ravens are

1063
00:49:39,040 --> 00:49:40,839
Speaker 2: kind of banged up in the secondary a little bit

1064
00:49:40,880 --> 00:49:43,640
Speaker 2: to Sean Elliott as good cushing out to Jimmy Smith.

1065
00:49:43,719 --> 00:49:47,680
Speaker 2: Still questionable, So keep your eye on some of their injuries.

1066
00:49:47,680 --> 00:49:50,280
Speaker 2: But Golf's not going to hurt them down the field.

1067
00:49:50,400 --> 00:49:53,279
Speaker 2: And these are two teams that want to run the ball.

1068
00:49:53,320 --> 00:49:55,720
Speaker 2: And now, look, the Lions defense has not been great.

1069
00:49:56,000 --> 00:49:59,040
Speaker 2: They have allowed thirty plus in eight straight games, which

1070
00:49:59,120 --> 00:50:01,839
Speaker 2: is an NFL record. The Ravens have just allowed more

1071
00:50:01,880 --> 00:50:03,759
Speaker 2: than thirty for the first time and back to back

1072
00:50:03,760 --> 00:50:08,080
Speaker 2: games in John Harbaugh's career. Now, one of them came

1073
00:50:08,080 --> 00:50:10,480
Speaker 2: with the Raiders with seven points in the fourth quarter

1074
00:50:10,560 --> 00:50:12,920
Speaker 2: and that game went crazy. The other one was the Chiefs.

1075
00:50:12,960 --> 00:50:16,279
Speaker 2: She scored thirty plus on everybody. So these are two

1076
00:50:16,320 --> 00:50:18,360
Speaker 2: teams that want to run the ball, they want to

1077
00:50:18,400 --> 00:50:21,959
Speaker 2: go slower. I just think this total is a little

1078
00:50:22,000 --> 00:50:24,239
Speaker 2: too high. I think the lines gets shut down, and

1079
00:50:24,280 --> 00:50:27,800
Speaker 2: I think that Aaron Glenn will come up with something

1080
00:50:28,400 --> 00:50:34,759
Speaker 2: to at least make Lamar think early on. I've been

1081
00:50:34,760 --> 00:50:37,440
Speaker 2: impressed with his scheme and some of the changes that

1082
00:50:37,480 --> 00:50:40,279
Speaker 2: he's made, so I think that would help Ravens. By

1083
00:50:40,280 --> 00:50:42,080
Speaker 2: the way, one of the biggest keys last week was

1084
00:50:42,280 --> 00:50:44,359
Speaker 2: villain the way then moving the left tackle, Stanley will

1085
00:50:44,400 --> 00:50:47,359
Speaker 2: be out. He went from the worst graded tackle at

1086
00:50:47,360 --> 00:50:49,680
Speaker 2: the right side he used to play left, to the

1087
00:50:49,760 --> 00:50:53,200
Speaker 2: second best per PFF last week against the Chiefs, so

1088
00:50:53,480 --> 00:50:55,640
Speaker 2: he feels much more comfortable there. But I think the

1089
00:50:55,760 --> 00:50:57,520
Speaker 2: Ravens come out here, so they might be a little

1090
00:50:57,560 --> 00:51:00,759
Speaker 2: flat too to start after that huge win over the Chiefs.

1091
00:51:00,800 --> 00:51:02,239
Speaker 2: I just think this is a little too hot, So

1092
00:51:02,239 --> 00:51:05,280
Speaker 2: give me the Ravens and lines under this just straight.

1093
00:51:05,320 --> 00:51:07,440
Speaker 4: And this is again, this is not model prediction. This

1094
00:51:07,520 --> 00:51:10,279
Speaker 4: is just my own prediction. But this feels like one

1095
00:51:10,280 --> 00:51:13,360
Speaker 4: of those games where you just you probably started Lamar

1096
00:51:13,440 --> 00:51:15,880
Speaker 4: Jackson in Fantasy and maybe a couple other guys in

1097
00:51:15,880 --> 00:51:18,600
Speaker 4: the Ravens, and you're watching red Zone and there's just

1098
00:51:18,600 --> 00:51:20,319
Speaker 4: like no update from this game. Then you look up

1099
00:51:20,360 --> 00:51:21,959
Speaker 4: and there's like ten minutes ago in the second quarter,

1100
00:51:22,000 --> 00:51:23,160
Speaker 4: and it's like three.

1101
00:51:23,000 --> 00:51:25,080
Speaker 5: To night Ravens, Right, Yeah, you know what I mean.

1102
00:51:25,360 --> 00:51:27,160
Speaker 4: It just it just feels like one of those games

1103
00:51:27,200 --> 00:51:31,160
Speaker 4: after the Ravens just had these massively entertaining primetime games.

1104
00:51:31,800 --> 00:51:34,040
Speaker 5: So yeah, I don't hate it at all.

1105
00:51:34,040 --> 00:51:35,879
Speaker 4: I don't I don't know that it has I don't

1106
00:51:35,880 --> 00:51:37,160
Speaker 4: feel like I have as good a gauge on the

1107
00:51:37,239 --> 00:51:39,640
Speaker 4: Ravens or the Lions for that matter yet as you do.

1108
00:51:40,120 --> 00:51:42,200
Speaker 5: So I haven't like really touched this game.

1109
00:51:42,440 --> 00:51:44,839
Speaker 4: It's kind of the first play I've thought about since

1110
00:51:45,280 --> 00:51:46,120
Speaker 4: since you brought it up.

1111
00:51:46,160 --> 00:51:48,440
Speaker 5: But yeah, I can't argue with it at all.

1112
00:51:48,800 --> 00:51:51,560
Speaker 4: For mine, I'm going with the New York Jets at

1113
00:51:51,560 --> 00:51:53,960
Speaker 4: the Denver Broncos under forty one and a half. And

1114
00:51:54,200 --> 00:51:56,560
Speaker 4: I feel like I've been targeting the Broncos and the

1115
00:51:56,600 --> 00:51:58,560
Speaker 4: New York teams all year with.

1116
00:51:58,640 --> 00:52:00,080
Speaker 5: Unders, and I'm gonna keep doing it.

1117
00:52:00,520 --> 00:52:04,640
Speaker 4: I like the number down to forty one.

1118
00:52:03,400 --> 00:52:06,000
Speaker 5: Denver twenty eighth in situation neutral paced.

1119
00:52:06,040 --> 00:52:09,000
Speaker 4: The Jets are nineteenth Bridgewater unders.

1120
00:52:09,200 --> 00:52:10,279
Speaker 5: You know what kind of quarterback he has?

1121
00:52:10,320 --> 00:52:13,359
Speaker 4: A Bridgewater unders in his career thirty twenty and one

1122
00:52:13,680 --> 00:52:17,000
Speaker 4: sixty percent towards the under. And then I look at

1123
00:52:17,000 --> 00:52:20,800
Speaker 4: the first week against the Giants, Broncos go for a

1124
00:52:20,840 --> 00:52:23,359
Speaker 4: total of forty points twenty seven to thirteen, but that

1125
00:52:23,400 --> 00:52:27,279
Speaker 4: needed a wait, Daniel Jones touchdown drive just to get

1126
00:52:27,320 --> 00:52:29,880
Speaker 4: him there. Then last week you could say, okay, well

1127
00:52:29,880 --> 00:52:32,160
Speaker 4: the Jaguars miss two field goes. Total should have ended

1128
00:52:32,239 --> 00:52:34,680
Speaker 4: up you know Wanning on forty two. Well, yeah, but

1129
00:52:34,800 --> 00:52:36,239
Speaker 4: that's kind of canceled out by the fact that the

1130
00:52:36,239 --> 00:52:38,840
Speaker 4: Broncos aren't going to give up a kick return for

1131
00:52:38,880 --> 00:52:42,640
Speaker 4: a touchdown every week. So the Broncos, to me, right now,

1132
00:52:42,880 --> 00:52:45,480
Speaker 4: are there. You know they've lost Brawley Chubb. But they

1133
00:52:45,480 --> 00:52:48,319
Speaker 4: still have a great defense, great personnel on defense all over.

1134
00:52:48,600 --> 00:52:51,040
Speaker 2: This is just a tricky defense to face as a rookie.

1135
00:52:51,120 --> 00:52:52,440
Speaker 2: We saw that line right, yeah.

1136
00:52:52,280 --> 00:52:53,120
Speaker 5: And that's another thing.

1137
00:52:53,200 --> 00:52:55,719
Speaker 4: And so now you have Zach Wilson, who in week

1138
00:52:55,760 --> 00:52:57,640
Speaker 4: twenty took six acts and were two.

1139
00:52:57,680 --> 00:53:00,000
Speaker 5: He throws four picks. What's gonna happen in week three?

1140
00:53:00,120 --> 00:53:01,759
Speaker 4: I love that he threw the four picks last week,

1141
00:53:01,800 --> 00:53:03,240
Speaker 4: even though we still got under that total.

1142
00:53:03,400 --> 00:53:05,200
Speaker 5: You know what they're gonna tell him this week. A

1143
00:53:05,280 --> 00:53:06,080
Speaker 5: sack is fine.

1144
00:53:06,120 --> 00:53:08,200
Speaker 4: A sack is yeah, like a sack is fine, A

1145
00:53:08,239 --> 00:53:10,080
Speaker 4: punt is fine, don't turn it over.

1146
00:53:10,800 --> 00:53:12,000
Speaker 5: And that's perfect.

1147
00:53:12,239 --> 00:53:15,640
Speaker 4: That's exactly what I want for this under So I

1148
00:53:15,680 --> 00:53:17,799
Speaker 4: got it at forty three. I like it, you know,

1149
00:53:18,160 --> 00:53:20,680
Speaker 4: down to forty one, I think, you know, worst case scenario,

1150
00:53:20,719 --> 00:53:22,760
Speaker 4: maybe you get like a twenty four to seventeen game.

1151
00:53:22,960 --> 00:53:24,520
Speaker 5: But I think this Broncos team is going.

1152
00:53:24,520 --> 00:53:26,880
Speaker 4: To be a team that all year long, the totals

1153
00:53:26,880 --> 00:53:28,720
Speaker 4: are gonna be in a thirty five to forty range,

1154
00:53:29,239 --> 00:53:31,000
Speaker 4: and you might even see them win games by like,

1155
00:53:31,120 --> 00:53:34,400
Speaker 4: you know, double digits. Even with that, with those low totals.

1156
00:53:34,400 --> 00:53:36,680
Speaker 4: So I wouldn't touch the spread here. It's just ballooned.

1157
00:53:37,120 --> 00:53:39,040
Speaker 4: But I think the spread is it's a little overrated,

1158
00:53:39,040 --> 00:53:41,080
Speaker 4: which is another like usually you don't want these, like

1159
00:53:41,440 --> 00:53:44,400
Speaker 4: you know, widespreads in low total games. But I just

1160
00:53:44,400 --> 00:53:46,319
Speaker 4: think that the Broncos aren't gonna give up much at all.

1161
00:53:46,520 --> 00:53:48,640
Speaker 4: The only thing I'm really worried about is maybe the

1162
00:53:48,680 --> 00:53:49,719
Speaker 4: Broncos turning it over.

1163
00:53:49,760 --> 00:53:51,360
Speaker 5: I think the Jets will turn it over maybe a

1164
00:53:51,400 --> 00:53:52,000
Speaker 5: couple of times.

1165
00:53:52,000 --> 00:53:54,440
Speaker 4: But I just think it sets up well for just

1166
00:53:54,480 --> 00:53:57,120
Speaker 4: another under mile high you know.

1167
00:53:58,120 --> 00:53:58,720
Speaker 2: Tough defense.

1168
00:53:58,719 --> 00:54:01,719
Speaker 4: Two defensive head coaches Fangio Sala who kind of know

1169
00:54:01,760 --> 00:54:03,360
Speaker 4: each other a little bit. They think kind of a

1170
00:54:03,360 --> 00:54:05,120
Speaker 4: little bit of the same. That was a little different,

1171
00:54:05,160 --> 00:54:08,520
Speaker 4: but there's some connections there. So yeah, I think this

1172
00:54:08,560 --> 00:54:11,960
Speaker 4: one goes under gets Broncos under forty one and a half.

1173
00:54:12,480 --> 00:54:16,279
Speaker 2: Eddie quick thought, I agree with you there, And I mean, look,

1174
00:54:16,320 --> 00:54:18,799
Speaker 2: Teddy covers thirty seven and fourteen against the spread. Now

1175
00:54:18,800 --> 00:54:19,520
Speaker 2: it's just insane.

1176
00:54:19,560 --> 00:54:21,120
Speaker 5: Seven way on the road. What is he twenty three

1177
00:54:21,160 --> 00:54:21,680
Speaker 5: and three.

1178
00:54:21,600 --> 00:54:24,640
Speaker 2: Twenty four and three? Now, yeah, I mean this is

1179
00:54:24,880 --> 00:54:27,000
Speaker 2: I think that we might end up getting. I think

1180
00:54:27,000 --> 00:54:28,520
Speaker 2: this line's a bit inflated, but I don't want to

1181
00:54:28,520 --> 00:54:31,840
Speaker 2: play this Jets with Zach Wilson against this defense on

1182
00:54:31,880 --> 00:54:35,279
Speaker 2: the road against Teddy Covers. But if the Jets get

1183
00:54:35,400 --> 00:54:39,520
Speaker 2: trucked here, but you see a little couple nice things

1184
00:54:39,520 --> 00:54:42,319
Speaker 2: from Wilson might get some value on the Jets next

1185
00:54:42,320 --> 00:54:44,600
Speaker 2: week at home against the Titans. And I mean, you're

1186
00:54:44,600 --> 00:54:49,279
Speaker 2: gonna go from Belichick defense to a Fangio defense to

1187
00:54:49,440 --> 00:54:52,840
Speaker 2: back home against the Titans defense. Who is their coordinator again,

1188
00:54:53,120 --> 00:54:57,200
Speaker 2: Shane Bowen. It's supposed to be vrable, Well, he says,

1189
00:54:58,080 --> 00:55:01,400
Speaker 2: like so last year he said they're a defensive coordinator,

1190
00:55:01,760 --> 00:55:03,879
Speaker 2: but like he wasn't the official defensive coordinator. I think

1191
00:55:03,880 --> 00:55:06,080
Speaker 2: he is this year, but verybole took all the blame

1192
00:55:06,160 --> 00:55:07,680
Speaker 2: for the play calls last year.

1193
00:55:07,760 --> 00:55:08,400
Speaker 5: So I don't know.

1194
00:55:08,719 --> 00:55:12,160
Speaker 2: But anyway, I agree with you here and but keep

1195
00:55:12,160 --> 00:55:13,799
Speaker 2: your eye. Well, we'll talk about that next week. But

1196
00:55:14,760 --> 00:55:16,920
Speaker 2: that might be our chance to finally play the Jets.

1197
00:55:17,160 --> 00:55:17,359
Speaker 5: Yeah.

1198
00:55:17,400 --> 00:55:19,880
Speaker 4: I said this the Curner in the in the Fantasy

1199
00:55:19,920 --> 00:55:22,600
Speaker 4: Flex Matchups show, which is out now. I was like,

1200
00:55:22,680 --> 00:55:24,640
Speaker 4: I'm off Jets receivers, and I said it in my

1201
00:55:25,000 --> 00:55:27,120
Speaker 4: breakdown as well. I'm off Jets receivers into Week four

1202
00:55:27,120 --> 00:55:29,520
Speaker 4: against Tennessee, like, can't play him last week, can't play

1203
00:55:29,560 --> 00:55:32,160
Speaker 4: him this week in fantasy. So that's gonna be our

1204
00:55:32,200 --> 00:55:36,360
Speaker 4: total segment. Baltimore, Detroit under fifty for Stuck, New York Jets,

1205
00:55:36,480 --> 00:55:38,080
Speaker 4: Denver under forty one and a half for me.

1206
00:55:38,600 --> 00:55:40,640
Speaker 5: Let's now get into our favorite teaser.

1207
00:55:41,960 --> 00:55:53,520
Speaker 1: Oh yeah, six point teasers change, don't tease me please?

1208
00:55:58,600 --> 00:55:58,960
Speaker 2: All right?

1209
00:55:59,000 --> 00:56:02,040
Speaker 4: For anyone, unfamili you were teasers. It's when you combine

1210
00:56:02,040 --> 00:56:04,520
Speaker 4: two or more bets and you get a certain number

1211
00:56:04,560 --> 00:56:08,160
Speaker 4: of points that help you on the spread. So, for example,

1212
00:56:08,440 --> 00:56:11,200
Speaker 4: teasing an eight point favorite with a six point teaser

1213
00:56:11,239 --> 00:56:13,560
Speaker 4: would make that a two point favorite, and teasing an

1214
00:56:13,560 --> 00:56:16,279
Speaker 4: eight point underdog with that same six point teaser would

1215
00:56:16,320 --> 00:56:20,200
Speaker 4: then make it a fourteen point underdog. Stuck has a

1216
00:56:20,200 --> 00:56:22,040
Speaker 4: lot of great content out on teasers. You could just

1217
00:56:22,080 --> 00:56:25,839
Speaker 4: google Stucky teasers and you'll find it, or check out

1218
00:56:25,880 --> 00:56:27,880
Speaker 4: Action Network. Go to Action Network, got common search for it.

1219
00:56:28,280 --> 00:56:30,640
Speaker 4: But Stuck, where are you going with your teaser for

1220
00:56:30,840 --> 00:56:31,520
Speaker 4: this week?

1221
00:56:32,320 --> 00:56:34,400
Speaker 2: Yeah? A lot of good teaser options of favorites that

1222
00:56:34,440 --> 00:56:36,440
Speaker 2: are between you know seven and eight that you can

1223
00:56:36,440 --> 00:56:40,920
Speaker 2: tease down under you know three, and some underdogs you

1224
00:56:40,960 --> 00:56:44,640
Speaker 2: can tease up I'm going with two. The totals are higher,

1225
00:56:44,640 --> 00:56:48,240
Speaker 2: so it's not as ideal, but look, I'm teasing the

1226
00:56:48,360 --> 00:56:51,080
Speaker 2: Vikings from plus one and a half two up to

1227
00:56:51,120 --> 00:56:54,680
Speaker 2: plus seven and a half eight. It's it gets the Seahawks,

1228
00:56:54,680 --> 00:56:57,000
Speaker 2: and I'm you know, I need the Vikings at home.

1229
00:56:57,120 --> 00:56:59,920
Speaker 2: Desperate home team. Oh and to Zimmer has been great

1230
00:57:00,280 --> 00:57:01,920
Speaker 2: against the spread off the loss, by the way, he

1231
00:57:01,960 --> 00:57:04,080
Speaker 2: covered again last week. He's twenty nine and thirteen peak

1232
00:57:04,480 --> 00:57:07,960
Speaker 2: by the way, Yeah, also been very good. But the Vikings.

1233
00:57:08,000 --> 00:57:11,520
Speaker 2: Both these teams should score a lot. Probably comes down

1234
00:57:11,560 --> 00:57:13,880
Speaker 2: to the last possession to probably find a way to

1235
00:57:13,920 --> 00:57:17,480
Speaker 2: win it. But yeah, give me the Vikings over a

1236
00:57:17,560 --> 00:57:21,720
Speaker 2: touchdown at home. Same thing with the Rams. Fascinating game.

1237
00:57:22,520 --> 00:57:25,400
Speaker 2: I mean, the Bucks have been brilliant. They had won

1238
00:57:25,480 --> 00:57:27,720
Speaker 2: ten straight. Brady has what thirty one touchdowns on six

1239
00:57:27,760 --> 00:57:29,960
Speaker 2: picks in that ten game when he shoot. Including the playoffs,

1240
00:57:30,080 --> 00:57:33,640
Speaker 2: He's also been unbelievable in this spot as either an

1241
00:57:33,720 --> 00:57:36,240
Speaker 2: underdog or a favorite of less than three points thirty four,

1242
00:57:36,800 --> 00:57:41,360
Speaker 2: fourteen and two against the spread in his career, covering

1243
00:57:41,400 --> 00:57:43,479
Speaker 2: by an average of six and a half points per game.

1244
00:57:43,800 --> 00:57:48,240
Speaker 2: It's that's seventy I have thirty six percent, just stupid McVeigh.

1245
00:57:48,800 --> 00:57:51,480
Speaker 2: I think it's going to close as the Bucks probably

1246
00:57:51,560 --> 00:57:54,920
Speaker 2: minus two. But I like the Rams teasing over touchdown.

1247
00:57:54,960 --> 00:57:57,720
Speaker 2: They actually beat the Bucks last year, then the Chiefs

1248
00:57:57,760 --> 00:57:59,280
Speaker 2: beat them, and then they went on that ten game

1249
00:57:59,320 --> 00:58:02,520
Speaker 2: when she the Bucks offense wasn't as deadly as it

1250
00:58:02,560 --> 00:58:05,040
Speaker 2: is now. But I think that the Rams can do

1251
00:58:05,120 --> 00:58:09,280
Speaker 2: some things. They can pressure Brady, you know up the middle,

1252
00:58:09,400 --> 00:58:11,760
Speaker 2: collapse that pocket. They're gonna have to put a lot

1253
00:58:11,800 --> 00:58:15,280
Speaker 2: of attension on Donald and then on offense. I don't

1254
00:58:15,280 --> 00:58:17,400
Speaker 2: think they're gonna try to run it much. It's just

1255
00:58:17,440 --> 00:58:20,200
Speaker 2: gonna be a lot of short passes, which is how

1256
00:58:20,240 --> 00:58:22,400
Speaker 2: you have to beat this Stampa defense. You can't even

1257
00:58:22,400 --> 00:58:25,600
Speaker 2: try to run. You saw Dallas do it in the opener.

1258
00:58:25,960 --> 00:58:28,680
Speaker 2: But look look at Jared Goff did last year against

1259
00:58:28,680 --> 00:58:30,680
Speaker 2: the Bucks. They won. He threw for three hundred and

1260
00:58:30,720 --> 00:58:34,600
Speaker 2: seventy six yards on fifty one attempts. So I think

1261
00:58:34,640 --> 00:58:37,920
Speaker 2: they're gonna do something similar. A lot of rollouts, play action,

1262
00:58:38,240 --> 00:58:41,840
Speaker 2: short passes. That's how you can attack this Bucks defense.

1263
00:58:42,520 --> 00:58:46,800
Speaker 2: Donald the company could get some pressure on Brady. The

1264
00:58:46,800 --> 00:58:50,680
Speaker 2: Bucks aren't going undefeated. I think just got my gut

1265
00:58:50,680 --> 00:58:53,000
Speaker 2: says they lose this game, the Rams find a way,

1266
00:58:53,000 --> 00:58:56,640
Speaker 2: and then we'll have the Rams very overvalued moving forward

1267
00:58:56,960 --> 00:58:59,440
Speaker 2: or maybe a week or two. But I make this

1268
00:58:59,520 --> 00:59:01,800
Speaker 2: closer to a coin flip. So give me the home

1269
00:59:01,840 --> 00:59:05,440
Speaker 2: team here catching over a touchdown. So pretty simple. I mean,

1270
00:59:05,480 --> 00:59:08,560
Speaker 2: just just a math play here. I'm taking the Vikings

1271
00:59:09,120 --> 00:59:11,680
Speaker 2: and the Rams catching over a touchdown.

1272
00:59:12,520 --> 00:59:14,280
Speaker 4: I don't hate teasing the Rams if I agree. I

1273
00:59:14,280 --> 00:59:16,360
Speaker 4: think it's a coin flip game that you don't expect

1274
00:59:16,440 --> 00:59:20,160
Speaker 4: to be a bow out in either direction. I think

1275
00:59:20,160 --> 00:59:21,600
Speaker 4: the only thing that gives me a little pause is

1276
00:59:21,600 --> 00:59:23,800
Speaker 4: that the Rams played such a close game against the Colts.

1277
00:59:24,880 --> 00:59:27,400
Speaker 4: Obviously they were on the road, but there is no

1278
00:59:27,440 --> 00:59:29,720
Speaker 4: not a big hopefield advantage in so far. Nice stadium

1279
00:59:29,960 --> 00:59:31,480
Speaker 4: by the way, got to go there with the with

1280
00:59:31,560 --> 00:59:34,240
Speaker 4: Kerner and see a preseason game, but not a huge

1281
00:59:34,240 --> 00:59:34,680
Speaker 4: home field.

1282
00:59:34,720 --> 00:59:36,160
Speaker 5: But yeah, I don't hate to play at all.

1283
00:59:36,840 --> 00:59:40,440
Speaker 4: I've actually been on the right side of the Seahawks

1284
00:59:40,480 --> 00:59:42,040
Speaker 4: the first two weeks. I'm going to try to keep

1285
00:59:42,040 --> 00:59:45,000
Speaker 4: it going here and I'm gonna go with Minnesota as well.

1286
00:59:45,280 --> 00:59:47,640
Speaker 4: Up to eight, So Baltimore down to one and a half,

1287
00:59:47,720 --> 00:59:48,800
Speaker 4: Minnesota up to eight.

1288
00:59:49,200 --> 00:59:50,560
Speaker 5: You already kind of mentioned.

1289
00:59:50,280 --> 00:59:52,840
Speaker 2: It the purpeaser.

1290
00:59:52,720 --> 00:59:55,200
Speaker 4: Right yet you go, I think this team is under there.

1291
00:59:55,240 --> 00:59:57,920
Speaker 4: So there's sixteen teams with positive EPA. Minnesota is the

1292
00:59:57,960 --> 01:00:00,800
Speaker 4: only one that's owing to So two plays away from

1293
01:00:00,800 --> 01:00:04,280
Speaker 4: being two and oh Seattle, he could.

1294
01:00:04,160 --> 01:00:06,320
Speaker 2: Easily be two and oh with a blown fumble and

1295
01:00:06,360 --> 01:00:07,880
Speaker 2: then ake a thirty yard field goal, they're two and

1296
01:00:07,920 --> 01:00:08,680
Speaker 2: oh and.

1297
01:00:08,720 --> 01:00:11,240
Speaker 4: Yeah, and this is another Zimmer off a lost spot.

1298
01:00:11,280 --> 01:00:13,920
Speaker 4: Thirty one and fifteen now against the spread sixty seven percent.

1299
01:00:14,280 --> 01:00:16,400
Speaker 4: When Mike and listen to this trend, because this is

1300
01:00:16,520 --> 01:00:19,800
Speaker 4: absolutely nuts. It's a it's a very specific trend, but

1301
01:00:19,840 --> 01:00:23,400
Speaker 4: with a pretty large sample size. Mike Zimmer versus a

1302
01:00:23,440 --> 01:00:26,640
Speaker 4: non divisional opponent, as long as that opponent doesn't have

1303
01:00:26,720 --> 01:00:28,960
Speaker 4: long rest, and as long as that opponent has been

1304
01:00:28,960 --> 01:00:30,560
Speaker 4: winning more than you know, a third of their games,

1305
01:00:30,560 --> 01:00:32,760
Speaker 4: so as long AS's not like just a terrible, terrible team,

1306
01:00:33,160 --> 01:00:35,240
Speaker 4: Mike Zimmer is thirty two and nine against the spread

1307
01:00:35,360 --> 01:00:38,760
Speaker 4: seventy eight percent. Like this Vikings team is always going

1308
01:00:38,800 --> 01:00:41,880
Speaker 4: to hang in there. So will they beat Seattle? I

1309
01:00:41,880 --> 01:00:44,240
Speaker 4: don't know, they can't kick. I know, I never.

1310
01:00:44,080 --> 01:00:46,480
Speaker 5: Feel great taking a team like plus, what is it two.

1311
01:00:46,520 --> 01:00:49,840
Speaker 4: Now I plus two that can't kick just not not

1312
01:00:49,960 --> 01:00:54,560
Speaker 4: my kind of bet, but eight, Okay, I'll bite uh

1313
01:00:55,120 --> 01:00:57,800
Speaker 4: Seatle's gonna have real problem covering Justin Jefferson in this game.

1314
01:00:57,840 --> 01:00:59,680
Speaker 4: I mean, is it was it gonna be Tray Flowers

1315
01:00:59,760 --> 01:01:01,520
Speaker 4: or the good guy that Trey Files gets benched for.

1316
01:01:02,000 --> 01:01:05,160
Speaker 4: It's it's gonna be a problem. So I wouldn't be

1317
01:01:05,160 --> 01:01:07,560
Speaker 4: surprised if Minnesota wins this game. Was tempted to take

1318
01:01:07,600 --> 01:01:10,880
Speaker 4: them for this next segment, but yeah, to wrap it,

1319
01:01:11,240 --> 01:01:14,080
Speaker 4: favorite teaser, stuck going with Minnesota plus eight the Rams

1320
01:01:14,080 --> 01:01:15,000
Speaker 4: plus eight and a half.

1321
01:01:15,480 --> 01:01:17,040
Speaker 5: I'm going to Minnesota plus.

1322
01:01:16,840 --> 01:01:21,120
Speaker 4: Eight and the Ravens down to minus one and a half.

1323
01:01:21,600 --> 01:01:26,640
Speaker 4: Let's get in to our money line underdog parlay.

1324
01:01:27,960 --> 01:01:32,880
Speaker 1: Turning good weekends into great weekends. It's time for the

1325
01:01:33,040 --> 01:01:34,360
Speaker 1: money line parlay.

1326
01:01:35,680 --> 01:01:38,040
Speaker 4: All right, stuck, where are we going with our moneyline

1327
01:01:38,080 --> 01:01:39,840
Speaker 4: dog this week? We already hit one in Week one.

1328
01:01:40,640 --> 01:01:42,800
Speaker 4: Last week didn't work out quite as well. Bengals lost,

1329
01:01:42,800 --> 01:01:46,040
Speaker 4: Eagles lost close games. But where you're going for Week three?

1330
01:01:46,440 --> 01:01:48,800
Speaker 2: Yeah? Either could have won those games. I don't mind

1331
01:01:48,800 --> 01:01:52,160
Speaker 2: that game that we had. Yeah, I mean, Bears only

1332
01:01:52,160 --> 01:01:55,200
Speaker 2: had two hundred total yards But this week, let's go

1333
01:01:55,240 --> 01:01:58,240
Speaker 2: with the Saints at the Patriots. Something has to give

1334
01:01:58,240 --> 01:02:00,840
Speaker 2: in this game. By the way, Bill Belichick one ninety

1335
01:02:00,920 --> 01:02:03,360
Speaker 2: nine and seven against the spread as a favorite fifty

1336
01:02:03,400 --> 01:02:06,360
Speaker 2: nine percent. Sean Payton forty two to twenty five and

1337
01:02:06,400 --> 01:02:09,640
Speaker 2: two against the spread as an underdog sixty three percent.

1338
01:02:10,000 --> 01:02:12,080
Speaker 2: He's also forty three and twenty five against the spread

1339
01:02:12,120 --> 01:02:15,200
Speaker 2: off a loss. Bill Belichick is the most profitable coach

1340
01:02:15,200 --> 01:02:17,520
Speaker 2: as a favorite in our Action Labs data basis doesn't three.

1341
01:02:17,640 --> 01:02:20,920
Speaker 2: Peyton is the second most profitable coach as an underdog.

1342
01:02:21,080 --> 01:02:23,960
Speaker 2: Two coaches is always good to back. Tomlin is the

1343
01:02:24,560 --> 01:02:27,120
Speaker 2: first as an underdog g's expected, and the worst is

1344
01:02:27,160 --> 01:02:30,440
Speaker 2: a favorite. Look, this is just a variance play on

1345
01:02:30,480 --> 01:02:32,160
Speaker 2: a game. There's a lot. The Saints are dealing with

1346
01:02:32,200 --> 01:02:35,240
Speaker 2: a lot right they their coaches had COVID. They have

1347
01:02:35,400 --> 01:02:40,640
Speaker 2: some injuries worth monitoring, Marshawn Lattimore and some others. We'll

1348
01:02:40,640 --> 01:02:42,400
Speaker 2: see if they have a full stat They're also playing

1349
01:02:42,400 --> 01:02:45,200
Speaker 2: their third straight road game now. Their first game is

1350
01:02:45,200 --> 01:02:47,760
Speaker 2: a technically a home game that they played in Jacksonville,

1351
01:02:48,160 --> 01:02:51,680
Speaker 2: so you know they haven't been home the hurricane. Surprisingly though,

1352
01:02:51,720 --> 01:02:53,800
Speaker 2: since two thousand and three, teams playing the third straight

1353
01:02:53,880 --> 01:02:56,560
Speaker 2: road game thirty one thirty two against the spread hasn't

1354
01:02:56,560 --> 01:03:00,439
Speaker 2: been a huge dge just fading those teams. You're curious

1355
01:03:00,520 --> 01:03:03,160
Speaker 2: Jameis Winston. He's only faced Bill Belichick one other time,

1356
01:03:03,240 --> 01:03:05,800
Speaker 2: back in twenty seventeen with the Bucks. Patriots won and

1357
01:03:05,840 --> 01:03:07,360
Speaker 2: covered that game. They are three and a half point favorites.

1358
01:03:07,400 --> 01:03:10,400
Speaker 2: They won nineteen to fourteen. James didn't throw a peck.

1359
01:03:10,480 --> 01:03:12,040
Speaker 2: I was shocked. I was. I was looking to see

1360
01:03:12,040 --> 01:03:13,920
Speaker 2: how how many picks he threw. He threw it over

1361
01:03:13,960 --> 01:03:16,240
Speaker 2: three oundred yards. But yeah, he was twenty six to

1362
01:03:16,320 --> 01:03:19,440
Speaker 2: forty six. This game could be ugly. The totals down

1363
01:03:19,440 --> 01:03:22,440
Speaker 2: to forty two, so which makes the dog even you know,

1364
01:03:22,560 --> 01:03:25,960
Speaker 2: every point even more intriguing. Just playing the variants with

1365
01:03:26,040 --> 01:03:28,960
Speaker 2: Jamis here, he's an underdog, will take the plus money

1366
01:03:28,960 --> 01:03:31,040
Speaker 2: in the game. That's that's close to a coin flip

1367
01:03:31,680 --> 01:03:34,640
Speaker 2: and roll with Jamis as a dog follow the script.

1368
01:03:35,080 --> 01:03:37,040
Speaker 4: I have no idea what's gonna happen in this game,

1369
01:03:37,040 --> 01:03:40,560
Speaker 4: and so that makes the underdog more enticing play because yeah,

1370
01:03:40,720 --> 01:03:44,200
Speaker 4: that's exactly for this game, right, And I'm proud to

1371
01:03:44,240 --> 01:03:47,280
Speaker 4: admit that, Like I usually have strong takes on something

1372
01:03:47,960 --> 01:03:50,160
Speaker 4: in a game, but you know, total wise, I mean,

1373
01:03:50,200 --> 01:03:52,000
Speaker 4: I guess I would probably mean under But as far

1374
01:03:52,040 --> 01:03:54,960
Speaker 4: as the spide I, it's a toss up.

1375
01:03:54,960 --> 01:03:56,560
Speaker 5: It's a true tosso all right.

1376
01:03:56,600 --> 01:04:01,400
Speaker 4: For my moneyline dog for Week three, it was somewhat

1377
01:04:01,400 --> 01:04:03,800
Speaker 4: of a tough choice, but I was thinking of going

1378
01:04:03,840 --> 01:04:05,640
Speaker 4: Miami just because I didn't pick them in the show.

1379
01:04:05,680 --> 01:04:07,720
Speaker 4: But I'm gonna go with green Bay plus one fifty.

1380
01:04:08,240 --> 01:04:10,880
Speaker 4: You have nowhere Owens plus one twenty. I really think

1381
01:04:10,920 --> 01:04:13,400
Speaker 4: Green Bay has a good shot at winning this game

1382
01:04:13,440 --> 01:04:17,360
Speaker 4: again as an underdog under Matt Lafloor Aaron Rodgers five

1383
01:04:17,400 --> 01:04:21,640
Speaker 4: and two, outright straight up pulling off the upset. I

1384
01:04:21,680 --> 01:04:23,480
Speaker 4: think it's gonna there's gonna be a point in this

1385
01:04:23,520 --> 01:04:25,360
Speaker 4: game where it's gonna come down to Aaron Rodgers making

1386
01:04:25,400 --> 01:04:27,600
Speaker 4: a play or Jimmy Garoppolo making a play.

1387
01:04:27,720 --> 01:04:30,640
Speaker 5: Give me Aaron Rodgers every time. It's early in the year.

1388
01:04:31,160 --> 01:04:33,360
Speaker 4: Green Bay had a thirty eight to three loss, probably

1389
01:04:33,360 --> 01:04:35,560
Speaker 4: the only reason you're getting a plus one fifty or

1390
01:04:35,600 --> 01:04:37,919
Speaker 4: better at this point in the year for green Bay.

1391
01:04:39,120 --> 01:04:41,240
Speaker 4: I know they had an ugly game, but I'm gonna

1392
01:04:41,240 --> 01:04:45,160
Speaker 4: take advantage of the early season weirdness and buy well

1393
01:04:45,160 --> 01:04:47,960
Speaker 4: on the pack here in the game, I think they win,

1394
01:04:48,400 --> 01:04:50,520
Speaker 4: so Green Bay plus one fifty.

1395
01:04:50,760 --> 01:04:52,640
Speaker 2: Don't hate it at all. Let's get it all right.

1396
01:04:52,680 --> 01:04:54,280
Speaker 5: So that's our money line dog parlay.

1397
01:04:54,320 --> 01:04:56,000
Speaker 4: You have the Saints at the Patriots, you have the

1398
01:04:56,040 --> 01:04:59,640
Speaker 4: Packers at the Niners. That parway plus one twenty for

1399
01:04:59,880 --> 01:05:02,560
Speaker 4: the the Saints plus one fifty for the pack at betmgm,

1400
01:05:02,600 --> 01:05:05,200
Speaker 4: the official odds provider of the podcast, would net you

1401
01:05:06,240 --> 01:05:08,440
Speaker 4: a profit of four hundred and fifty dollars and one hundred

1402
01:05:08,480 --> 01:05:11,280
Speaker 4: dollar bet So if you're waged one hundred on this parlay,

1403
01:05:11,960 --> 01:05:13,440
Speaker 4: you get paid out five to fifty.

1404
01:05:13,200 --> 01:05:14,720
Speaker 5: One hundred plus four to fifty win.

1405
01:05:15,440 --> 01:05:18,320
Speaker 4: Be sure to check out actionnetwork dot com forward Slash

1406
01:05:18,640 --> 01:05:23,280
Speaker 4: Betting Dash Calculators for a betting calculator. You can also

1407
01:05:23,320 --> 01:05:26,840
Speaker 4: find it in the Action Network app as well. Let's

1408
01:05:26,880 --> 01:05:29,360
Speaker 4: get into the best of the rest, which are the

1409
01:05:29,400 --> 01:05:32,800
Speaker 4: games that we did not discuss in any other segment

1410
01:05:32,880 --> 01:05:38,479
Speaker 4: on this podcast. First up, we have the Chargers going

1411
01:05:38,520 --> 01:05:41,760
Speaker 4: to KC case coming off that loss, case six and

1412
01:05:41,760 --> 01:05:43,920
Speaker 4: a half point favorite at BETMGM.

1413
01:05:44,040 --> 01:05:48,680
Speaker 5: The total is fifty sick. Seems like a little too much.

1414
01:05:48,840 --> 01:05:51,120
Speaker 4: Point wise for CAC. They just never win by a

1415
01:05:51,120 --> 01:05:52,480
Speaker 4: lot anymore. What do you think of this one?

1416
01:05:53,320 --> 01:05:55,280
Speaker 2: Nine against the spread as a favorite of more than

1417
01:05:55,320 --> 01:05:57,720
Speaker 2: a field goal since Week eight last season by the

1418
01:05:57,760 --> 01:05:59,480
Speaker 2: Jets that won thirty five to nine, and Week eight

1419
01:05:59,560 --> 01:06:02,920
Speaker 2: since then zero to nine against the spread as a

1420
01:06:02,920 --> 01:06:05,720
Speaker 2: favorite of mordenfield goal. They won eight of those games.

1421
01:06:05,760 --> 01:06:07,800
Speaker 2: The only one they lost was last week, and they

1422
01:06:07,800 --> 01:06:10,160
Speaker 2: should have won that game by two if they don't fumble,

1423
01:06:10,840 --> 01:06:12,960
Speaker 2: and they were right in the perfect Bucker range. They

1424
01:06:13,000 --> 01:06:15,000
Speaker 2: weren't too close, so Bucker would have made it and

1425
01:06:15,040 --> 01:06:16,480
Speaker 2: they would have won. They would have won another game

1426
01:06:16,480 --> 01:06:18,720
Speaker 2: by like two or three. That's all they do. I

1427
01:06:18,800 --> 01:06:22,240
Speaker 2: make this around six to six, but give me seven.

1428
01:06:22,320 --> 01:06:25,000
Speaker 2: If I can get seven, I want it. The Chiefs,

1429
01:06:25,240 --> 01:06:27,760
Speaker 2: their defense is so bad they're just incapable of winning

1430
01:06:27,840 --> 01:06:30,520
Speaker 2: these games by a lot. The Charters have a competent

1431
01:06:30,600 --> 01:06:33,040
Speaker 2: enough offense to keep up here. And if you get seven,

1432
01:06:33,080 --> 01:06:35,320
Speaker 2: even if you're down fourteen against the Chiefs defense, you're

1433
01:06:35,320 --> 01:06:37,040
Speaker 2: getting a back door late. And then you have a

1434
01:06:37,080 --> 01:06:40,640
Speaker 2: Chiefs offense and a Chiefs coaching staff that's really smart

1435
01:06:41,080 --> 01:06:42,840
Speaker 2: and they know how to run out the clock. That's

1436
01:06:42,840 --> 01:06:45,280
Speaker 2: what that's what happens too, Like if they're up by

1437
01:06:45,400 --> 01:06:47,640
Speaker 2: you know, three or four, some teams are going down

1438
01:06:47,640 --> 01:06:50,840
Speaker 2: and scoring like they play it really well at the

1439
01:06:50,960 --> 01:06:53,600
Speaker 2: end with Mahomes, nothing huge for me. The charters will

1440
01:06:53,600 --> 01:06:55,920
Speaker 2: makeing some dumb mistakes. It's like Anthony Lynn never left

1441
01:06:55,960 --> 01:06:58,360
Speaker 2: in the red zone and I'm curious to see if

1442
01:06:58,400 --> 01:07:01,160
Speaker 2: they'll clean it up. But I make it around six,

1443
01:07:01,200 --> 01:07:02,520
Speaker 2: it's a no play for me. But if I get

1444
01:07:02,520 --> 01:07:04,880
Speaker 2: the seven, I'll probably bite for a little bit on

1445
01:07:05,200 --> 01:07:08,439
Speaker 2: the Chargers. This Chiefs defense is just horror show.

1446
01:07:09,080 --> 01:07:13,480
Speaker 4: Yeah, I really hate betting against Reading Mahomes, especially coming

1447
01:07:13,480 --> 01:07:14,120
Speaker 4: off a loss.

1448
01:07:14,400 --> 01:07:16,400
Speaker 5: It just doesn't doesn't feel right.

1449
01:07:16,440 --> 01:07:19,280
Speaker 4: But my number is five, so I have adjusted down,

1450
01:07:19,720 --> 01:07:22,280
Speaker 4: you know, for this Chiefs team that you know, the

1451
01:07:22,440 --> 01:07:26,160
Speaker 4: wins and losses on the surface look great, but underlying

1452
01:07:26,200 --> 01:07:28,040
Speaker 4: there's starting to be a little bit of concerns.

1453
01:07:28,080 --> 01:07:30,520
Speaker 5: And some of it was just uncharacteristic.

1454
01:07:30,560 --> 01:07:33,240
Speaker 4: Like Mahomes doesn't usually make throw that interception either, Like

1455
01:07:33,280 --> 01:07:37,760
Speaker 4: that was just uncharacter Yeah, a lot of things just

1456
01:07:37,760 --> 01:07:39,320
Speaker 4: went weird in that game against the Ravens.

1457
01:07:39,360 --> 01:07:41,480
Speaker 5: I mean, shouts to the Ravens. They obviously they needed

1458
01:07:41,480 --> 01:07:41,840
Speaker 5: that one.

1459
01:07:41,880 --> 01:07:43,680
Speaker 4: But I don't know if I'm gonna bet this one

1460
01:07:43,760 --> 01:07:46,720
Speaker 4: just because it just seems like a stressful situation that

1461
01:07:46,800 --> 01:07:48,040
Speaker 4: I don't know if I want to deal with.

1462
01:07:48,120 --> 01:07:49,920
Speaker 5: To be frank, but we'll see.

1463
01:07:50,040 --> 01:07:52,680
Speaker 4: I agree, if it gets to seven, it's gonna be

1464
01:07:52,760 --> 01:07:56,240
Speaker 4: highly tempting, especially with my number at five. So uh,

1465
01:07:57,080 --> 01:07:59,640
Speaker 4: just follow follow us in the action app Stuck. He's

1466
01:07:59,640 --> 01:08:01,560
Speaker 4: at Stucky too, I'm at Chris Raybon. You'll see if

1467
01:08:01,600 --> 01:08:03,520
Speaker 4: we end up making a move on this one or not.

1468
01:08:03,760 --> 01:08:07,720
Speaker 4: Let's go to Chicago at Cleveland. Cleveland's seven point favorite.

1469
01:08:07,720 --> 01:08:10,200
Speaker 4: The total is forty six. I actually took Chicago at

1470
01:08:10,240 --> 01:08:12,600
Speaker 4: seven in the hook at seven and a half because

1471
01:08:12,640 --> 01:08:15,040
Speaker 4: I thought Fields would end up starting and well and.

1472
01:08:15,000 --> 01:08:15,880
Speaker 5: Behold here he is.

1473
01:08:16,120 --> 01:08:19,600
Speaker 4: I think it's actually this actually helps because you you know,

1474
01:08:19,680 --> 01:08:22,240
Speaker 4: you haven't seen as much on fields yet. I think

1475
01:08:22,240 --> 01:08:24,719
Speaker 4: it's still gonna be tougher to prepare for than Cleveland

1476
01:08:24,880 --> 01:08:27,600
Speaker 4: with Andy Dalton. Howse Odo Beckham gonna look in his

1477
01:08:27,640 --> 01:08:29,840
Speaker 4: first game back, I don't know. I mean the fact

1478
01:08:29,880 --> 01:08:32,560
Speaker 4: that he hasn't played these first two weeks makes me skeptical.

1479
01:08:33,520 --> 01:08:34,679
Speaker 5: Jarvis Landry's out.

1480
01:08:35,800 --> 01:08:39,360
Speaker 3: I think this could be because of yeah, and this

1481
01:08:39,920 --> 01:08:41,880
Speaker 3: is the this is the Browns, like they remember though,

1482
01:08:42,200 --> 01:08:44,080
Speaker 3: they went into those like situations when it was like

1483
01:08:44,120 --> 01:08:46,280
Speaker 3: win game, and then they had the COVID game against

1484
01:08:46,280 --> 01:08:47,439
Speaker 3: the Jets, Like what do they do?

1485
01:08:47,439 --> 01:08:49,439
Speaker 5: They played these low scoring games where points are at

1486
01:08:49,479 --> 01:08:53,120
Speaker 5: a premium, and I just think seven it's still too much.

1487
01:08:53,520 --> 01:08:55,840
Speaker 4: I think, you know, the Chicago is another kind of

1488
01:08:55,960 --> 01:08:58,679
Speaker 4: enticing money line dog here just still some value here

1489
01:08:58,920 --> 01:08:59,439
Speaker 4: on the Bears.

1490
01:08:59,439 --> 01:08:59,920
Speaker 5: What do you think?

1491
01:09:00,880 --> 01:09:03,120
Speaker 2: Yeah, if I had see, that's where I would go. Also,

1492
01:09:03,200 --> 01:09:05,280
Speaker 2: keeping on the wind here might be twenty twenty five

1493
01:09:05,280 --> 01:09:08,360
Speaker 2: miles per hour. I mean, the Bears were so ugly

1494
01:09:08,400 --> 01:09:10,200
Speaker 2: last week. They got burrowed to throw three picks and

1495
01:09:10,240 --> 01:09:12,280
Speaker 2: three consecutive plays in the NFL record, and they won

1496
01:09:12,320 --> 01:09:14,960
Speaker 2: twenty to seventeen. They had two hundred and six total

1497
01:09:15,000 --> 01:09:17,680
Speaker 2: yards offense and average three point four yards per play.

1498
01:09:18,280 --> 01:09:21,160
Speaker 2: Big coaching mismatch here for the Browns, but nothing here

1499
01:09:21,200 --> 01:09:21,400
Speaker 2: for me.

1500
01:09:22,120 --> 01:09:23,680
Speaker 5: What about the total forty six then?

1501
01:09:23,760 --> 01:09:25,360
Speaker 4: Because you know, the more I think about it, if

1502
01:09:25,400 --> 01:09:29,200
Speaker 4: Cleveland's especially you know, no Landry, like, I just.

1503
01:09:29,160 --> 01:09:31,439
Speaker 2: Have to figure out who's playing, Like the offensive like

1504
01:09:31,479 --> 01:09:33,240
Speaker 2: what what injury? I got to see how healthy their

1505
01:09:33,240 --> 01:09:35,160
Speaker 2: offensive line is. There's just a lot of uncertainty, and

1506
01:09:35,200 --> 01:09:37,439
Speaker 2: then I want to see what the forecast looks like,

1507
01:09:37,840 --> 01:09:39,840
Speaker 2: the wind forecast closer to game time. But if there's

1508
01:09:39,840 --> 01:09:42,760
Speaker 2: a bunch of wind in this game, yeah, under under City.

1509
01:09:42,960 --> 01:09:45,000
Speaker 4: Yeah, because say, if it stays in the twenties like

1510
01:09:45,040 --> 01:09:47,000
Speaker 4: you just mentioned, I think that's going to be an

1511
01:09:47,000 --> 01:09:47,920
Speaker 4: auto bit under and up.

1512
01:09:48,040 --> 01:09:48,920
Speaker 2: I'm just gonna take.

1513
01:09:48,800 --> 01:09:51,200
Speaker 4: My chances that like at worst, I think I catch

1514
01:09:51,240 --> 01:09:51,800
Speaker 4: one of the two.

1515
01:09:51,920 --> 01:09:54,000
Speaker 2: Like at worst, yeah, and that helps if they're if

1516
01:09:54,000 --> 01:09:55,760
Speaker 2: you're to have the dog in that scenario right, and

1517
01:09:55,760 --> 01:09:58,800
Speaker 2: then fields his legs become more important instead of Dalton

1518
01:09:58,880 --> 01:10:00,559
Speaker 2: back there when you can't really threw in the wind.

1519
01:10:01,160 --> 01:10:03,880
Speaker 4: Absolutely, and then the final one another game, I took

1520
01:10:03,920 --> 01:10:08,000
Speaker 4: the under Cincinnati at Pittsburgh. Cincinnati is a three point

1521
01:10:08,080 --> 01:10:10,600
Speaker 4: underdog on the road that's come down. Big Ben is

1522
01:10:10,640 --> 01:10:13,599
Speaker 4: banged up, So I took the under forty four.

1523
01:10:13,400 --> 01:10:13,960
Speaker 5: And a half.

1524
01:10:14,040 --> 01:10:18,080
Speaker 4: I believe even with Big Ben stuck, only two of

1525
01:10:18,120 --> 01:10:21,519
Speaker 4: the last ten have gone forty five or more points,

1526
01:10:21,680 --> 01:10:23,720
Speaker 4: and only ten of thirty two in Ben's career. So

1527
01:10:23,760 --> 01:10:27,200
Speaker 4: even if Ben plays, these are just two teams divisional opponents.

1528
01:10:27,240 --> 01:10:30,599
Speaker 4: They tend to play low scoring games and in Cincinnati's defense.

1529
01:10:30,840 --> 01:10:33,439
Speaker 4: Don't look now, but they're playing a lot better than

1530
01:10:33,520 --> 01:10:36,920
Speaker 4: people expected. I know Chicago's not much just to sneeze at,

1531
01:10:37,040 --> 01:10:40,160
Speaker 4: but Minnesota, the fact that they kind of made them

1532
01:10:40,240 --> 01:10:42,880
Speaker 4: really grind it out, I thought it was impressive. So

1533
01:10:43,000 --> 01:10:45,360
Speaker 4: Cincinnati fourth and yards per play all out at four

1534
01:10:45,360 --> 01:10:48,560
Speaker 4: point five. I think people are overrating the fact that

1535
01:10:48,600 --> 01:10:50,559
Speaker 4: Pittsburgh still not throwing the ball down the field, Big

1536
01:10:50,600 --> 01:10:54,280
Speaker 4: Ben is banged up, Cincinnati's playing well on defense. You know,

1537
01:10:54,320 --> 01:10:56,280
Speaker 4: the Bengals are still going to struggle on offense, even

1538
01:10:56,320 --> 01:10:58,599
Speaker 4: with TJ. Watt out there. They're still not there yet.

1539
01:10:58,600 --> 01:11:02,120
Speaker 4: There's still probably a year away. So I'm under nothing

1540
01:11:02,400 --> 01:11:04,160
Speaker 4: for this one, especially with the line coming down. Because

1541
01:11:04,120 --> 01:11:05,920
Speaker 4: Cincinnadi never wins on a road. That's probably watching it.

1542
01:11:05,920 --> 01:11:08,000
Speaker 4: That took him as the dog last week. They never

1543
01:11:08,040 --> 01:11:09,439
Speaker 4: went on the road. I think Zach Gara has one

1544
01:11:09,479 --> 01:11:11,960
Speaker 4: win on the road in three years. So uh, still

1545
01:11:11,960 --> 01:11:13,600
Speaker 4: don't love the Bengals, even at the you know, with

1546
01:11:13,640 --> 01:11:16,040
Speaker 4: Big Ben questionable, But what are your thoughts on this one?

1547
01:11:16,760 --> 01:11:19,120
Speaker 2: If if it's if Tomlin's the favorite of a reveilgal,

1548
01:11:19,160 --> 01:11:21,439
Speaker 2: you always have to look at the dog here. But

1549
01:11:22,240 --> 01:11:24,479
Speaker 2: there's a lot of uncertainty with the Steelers. Ben Rothzsber,

1550
01:11:24,479 --> 01:11:26,120
Speaker 2: who's been one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL

1551
01:11:26,160 --> 01:11:28,360
Speaker 2: this year, he's I mean, he's washed up. And now

1552
01:11:28,360 --> 01:11:30,600
Speaker 2: you have Deontay Johnson got hurt on the last play

1553
01:11:32,040 --> 01:11:35,400
Speaker 2: down nine, so is he gonna play. The offensive line

1554
01:11:35,439 --> 01:11:38,000
Speaker 2: is still really bad. And then there's defensive injuries too.

1555
01:11:38,160 --> 01:11:40,760
Speaker 2: They're gonna get bushed back. But TJ. Watt that's still

1556
01:11:40,840 --> 01:11:43,240
Speaker 2: up in the air. And t J. Watt obviously one

1557
01:11:43,280 --> 01:11:46,120
Speaker 2: of the best defenders the NFL. His presence now becomes

1558
01:11:46,160 --> 01:11:49,439
Speaker 2: so much more important because you got two. It is

1559
01:11:49,479 --> 01:11:53,439
Speaker 2: on I R and you have Alululua he's on I

1560
01:11:53,640 --> 01:11:56,200
Speaker 2: R too, So like you don't have Watten there, Now

1561
01:11:57,040 --> 01:11:59,599
Speaker 2: that defensive line all of a sudden goes from holy

1562
01:11:59,680 --> 01:12:02,080
Speaker 2: ship to all right, we can we could take out

1563
01:12:02,160 --> 01:12:04,360
Speaker 2: That's a huge difference against the Bengals and and and

1564
01:12:04,560 --> 01:12:08,320
Speaker 2: getting pressure on Burrow. But you're right, the Bengals defense

1565
01:12:09,520 --> 01:12:13,360
Speaker 2: has played a lot better as long as Watt plays here.

1566
01:12:13,720 --> 01:12:16,400
Speaker 2: I mean, Hayden has banged up to high Smith.

1567
01:12:16,240 --> 01:12:19,120
Speaker 4: Had too, though, So that's that's actually a key for

1568
01:12:19,160 --> 01:12:23,200
Speaker 4: the because yeah, that's the reasons that match the Steelers have.

1569
01:12:23,640 --> 01:12:26,040
Speaker 2: Yeah, the Steelers have injuries, the key injuries all over,

1570
01:12:26,080 --> 01:12:27,960
Speaker 2: and their offense is just a mess, like they need

1571
01:12:28,000 --> 01:12:33,599
Speaker 2: their defense to be fully healthy. So but uh, yeah,

1572
01:12:33,640 --> 01:12:35,920
Speaker 2: I think it's it's under or nothing here for what

1573
01:12:35,920 --> 01:12:39,920
Speaker 2: it's with. Ben Roethlisberger has absolutely owned the Bengals. He's

1574
01:12:39,920 --> 01:12:41,920
Speaker 2: twenty six and eight straight up twenty three to ten

1575
01:12:41,920 --> 01:12:46,320
Speaker 2: to one against the spread, including two postseason wins. But uh,

1576
01:12:46,560 --> 01:12:48,559
Speaker 2: who cares? That's the bet of old This is not

1577
01:12:48,720 --> 01:12:52,200
Speaker 2: the same Ben he's. Like I said before, only Wilson

1578
01:12:52,200 --> 01:12:55,280
Speaker 2: and Lawrence have graded out his worst passers of the

1579
01:12:55,280 --> 01:12:57,920
Speaker 2: thirty quarterbacks at least fifty dropbacks this season, and now

1580
01:12:57,920 --> 01:13:00,880
Speaker 2: he's banged up to boot. So yeah, I don't hate

1581
01:13:00,880 --> 01:13:02,880
Speaker 2: the under at all. The Steeler's got to grind this

1582
01:13:02,920 --> 01:13:03,320
Speaker 2: one out.

1583
01:13:04,240 --> 01:13:07,439
Speaker 4: Yeah, Bengal's allowing the third lowest average up to target

1584
01:13:07,479 --> 01:13:09,120
Speaker 4: on defense in the league, by the way, just three

1585
01:13:09,160 --> 01:13:12,240
Speaker 4: three point five. That just think about that combined with

1586
01:13:12,280 --> 01:13:15,479
Speaker 4: Big Ben, like you're gonna get even if Pittsburgh wins

1587
01:13:15,520 --> 01:13:18,000
Speaker 4: by twenty, it's gonna be like twenty to twenty three

1588
01:13:18,040 --> 01:13:19,960
Speaker 4: to three because they're gonna take all data to score.

1589
01:13:20,080 --> 01:13:22,200
Speaker 5: Like it's this just screams Under to me.

1590
01:13:22,960 --> 01:13:25,400
Speaker 4: Yeah, just the only reason I'm not taking the Bengals

1591
01:13:25,479 --> 01:13:29,559
Speaker 4: just because Taylor don't trust him Big Ben. Uh. You

1592
01:13:29,560 --> 01:13:31,600
Speaker 4: know Steeers, I still think, you know, they get it

1593
01:13:31,600 --> 01:13:33,360
Speaker 4: done coming off this loss. I don't know if it'll

1594
01:13:33,400 --> 01:13:36,160
Speaker 4: be pretty, but yeah, Under nothing for me in this one.

1595
01:13:36,640 --> 01:13:38,840
Speaker 4: Let's close it up with our Survivor Pool pick of

1596
01:13:38,880 --> 01:13:39,920
Speaker 4: the week.

1597
01:13:40,479 --> 01:13:47,960
Speaker 1: The Survivor Pool pick of the week.

1598
01:13:49,720 --> 01:13:51,719
Speaker 4: All right, we're both still hanging in there. We both

1599
01:13:51,720 --> 01:13:53,680
Speaker 4: went Sam Frando week one. You went Cleveland. I went

1600
01:13:53,840 --> 01:13:56,240
Speaker 4: the Packers in week two. Where you going for your

1601
01:13:56,280 --> 01:13:57,519
Speaker 4: Survivor pick for week three?

1602
01:13:58,120 --> 01:13:58,240
Speaker 3: Uh?

1603
01:13:58,920 --> 01:14:01,720
Speaker 2: I think I reck minute. Some people take Panthers week one.

1604
01:14:02,320 --> 01:14:05,880
Speaker 2: If you did, I think Denver is safe here. That's

1605
01:14:06,400 --> 01:14:08,880
Speaker 2: the look. But Denver to keep in mind that you

1606
01:14:08,880 --> 01:14:11,160
Speaker 2: want to look in the future. Denver plays the Bengals

1607
01:14:11,160 --> 01:14:13,920
Speaker 2: and the Lions at home later this season. So I'm

1608
01:14:14,000 --> 01:14:16,880
Speaker 2: gonna side with I think where you're gonna end up

1609
01:14:16,920 --> 01:14:19,880
Speaker 2: going from what we talked about earlier this week, and

1610
01:14:19,920 --> 01:14:23,960
Speaker 2: that's what the Carolina Panthers look. It's Davis Mills. I

1611
01:14:23,960 --> 01:14:25,280
Speaker 2: know it's on the road on the short week with

1612
01:14:25,320 --> 01:14:28,080
Speaker 2: Sam Darnold. It's scary, Like I'm scared a little bit,

1613
01:14:28,160 --> 01:14:31,200
Speaker 2: but I think that they should win this game, especially

1614
01:14:31,200 --> 01:14:33,600
Speaker 2: with the secondary injuries and the defense. People look at

1615
01:14:33,600 --> 01:14:37,200
Speaker 2: the schedule at Dallas, Philly, Vikings at the Giants, at

1616
01:14:37,360 --> 01:14:43,560
Speaker 2: the Falcons, Patriots at the Cardinals, Washington at Miami Atlanta,

1617
01:14:44,080 --> 01:14:48,759
Speaker 2: maybe at Buffalo home against Tampa Bay, at New Orleans

1618
01:14:49,040 --> 01:14:52,960
Speaker 2: at Tampa Bay. So you don't really see many opportunities

1619
01:14:52,960 --> 01:14:56,400
Speaker 2: to use the Panthers. So this is as good of

1620
01:14:56,439 --> 01:14:59,120
Speaker 2: a chance as I'm gonna get a feeling confident and

1621
01:14:59,160 --> 01:15:03,040
Speaker 2: trusting Sam Dar this season, I'm rolling with the Panthers.

1622
01:15:03,320 --> 01:15:06,080
Speaker 4: Yeah, That's where I'm going for exactly that reason. I

1623
01:15:06,120 --> 01:15:07,880
Speaker 4: just looked at the schedule. I still a Denver still

1624
01:15:07,880 --> 01:15:10,679
Speaker 4: plays Detroit, not the Bengals. I think are a feisty team,

1625
01:15:10,680 --> 01:15:12,880
Speaker 4: Like I probably won't take a survivor against them. I

1626
01:15:12,880 --> 01:15:15,040
Speaker 4: don't think it's just they strike me as one of

1627
01:15:15,040 --> 01:15:16,800
Speaker 4: those teams that could win any game, lose any game.

1628
01:15:17,280 --> 01:15:20,519
Speaker 4: But Davis mills first start didn't look great last week. Yeah,

1629
01:15:20,560 --> 01:15:21,960
Speaker 4: I think this is the only time you're gonna want

1630
01:15:21,960 --> 01:15:24,720
Speaker 4: to use the Panthers, whereas the Broncos there's one or

1631
01:15:24,800 --> 01:15:28,519
Speaker 4: you know, maybe even two spots that you still use them.

1632
01:15:28,520 --> 01:15:30,880
Speaker 5: So that's that's the way I would go with this one.

1633
01:15:31,320 --> 01:15:31,880
Speaker 5: It's not great.

1634
01:15:31,880 --> 01:15:34,479
Speaker 4: It doesn't feel great because I mean you're still taking

1635
01:15:34,479 --> 01:15:37,519
Speaker 4: the Panthers as a road favorite, you know, expecting them

1636
01:15:37,520 --> 01:15:39,920
Speaker 4: to take care of business, and yeah, I could see

1637
01:15:39,920 --> 01:15:41,599
Speaker 4: some shenanigans in this game.

1638
01:15:41,760 --> 01:15:45,160
Speaker 2: Crocos also have Chiefs week seventeen, so are week eighteen

1639
01:15:45,280 --> 01:15:47,280
Speaker 2: or whatever, So you don't know if the Chiefs have

1640
01:15:47,640 --> 01:15:49,840
Speaker 2: everything wrapped up in the division or aren't playing for

1641
01:15:49,840 --> 01:15:51,639
Speaker 2: anything too, So keep that in mind as well.

1642
01:15:51,880 --> 01:15:54,760
Speaker 5: All right, that's gonna do it. Let's hope we keep this.

1643
01:15:55,040 --> 01:15:57,559
Speaker 4: I hope we keep this our winning streak are winning

1644
01:15:57,560 --> 01:16:00,000
Speaker 4: ways going on the pod. If you guys enjoy it,

1645
01:16:00,360 --> 01:16:02,400
Speaker 4: always feel free to leave us a rating and review,

1646
01:16:02,720 --> 01:16:06,320
Speaker 4: subscribe all that good stuff. Be sure to follow Stucky

1647
01:16:06,800 --> 01:16:10,679
Speaker 4: on Twitter at Stucky two and meet on Twitter at

1648
01:16:10,840 --> 01:16:11,920
Speaker 4: Chris Raybon.

1649
01:16:12,120 --> 01:16:13,160
Speaker 5: You can find us.

1650
01:16:13,439 --> 01:16:17,479
Speaker 4: At those same handles in the free award winning Action

1651
01:16:17,600 --> 01:16:22,080
Speaker 4: Network app, where you can follow our bets or track yours.

1652
01:16:22,600 --> 01:16:26,639
Speaker 5: We will see you guys next week. Good luck this weekend.

1653
01:16:27,600 --> 01:16:30,320
Speaker 5: Let's get this money oo all