Speaker 1: Check it down, man, No down many check it down now.
Speaker 1: Thursday morning, November twelve, it's the Beating the Book podcast
Speaker 1: Megapod for week number ten Wow Week ten National Football League.
Speaker 1: It's Gill Alexander, thanks for joining us, said of course
Speaker 1: alongside Todd wished nevuh no longer from his mother's cork attic.
Speaker 1: What room is that, Todd, it's the same room. It's
Speaker 1: just I did a background to trick you today. See
Speaker 1: he doesn't want he doesn't want me to say the
Speaker 1: cork Attic park. And of course, uh the conciliary to
Speaker 1: Derrick Stephens, the VP of Operations, one of the vps
Speaker 1: here at the Circus Sports, the Great Mike Palm. Hello Michael,
Speaker 1: the morning Gil. You know today is a significant day
Speaker 1: for the Megapod. People ask me what is humanity all about?
Speaker 1: What is this life all about? What's the theme of it?
Speaker 1: And I always tell them it's about sin and redemption. Well, today,
Speaker 1: the other member of our little mini sen Hedron, we'll
Speaker 1: have a chance to maybe get some redemption or at
Speaker 1: least apologize. Four. Well, I don't want to give away
Speaker 1: who the guest is. Oh, that's right, I forgot. You're
Speaker 1: referring to the incident. It's Todd Seminel moment on the megapod.
Speaker 1: So far, ladies and gentlemen back on the show for
Speaker 1: the first time. I hadn't I hadn't had him on
Speaker 1: a numbers game in a while too. And it's all
Speaker 1: my mistake. It's my old friend Dr Bob stole from
Speaker 1: Dr Bob Sports at d r Bob Sports on Twitter. Bob,
Speaker 1: how are you doing for the second time today? Man
Speaker 1: entire of talking to you, Gil he no, do you
Speaker 1: are you aware of the incident we're referring to from
Speaker 1: last year? I have no idea. Well, it's a matter
Speaker 1: if much debate, wasn't it Mikey trying to remember? Yeah,
Speaker 1: some people thought, uh, someone here was being impolite to
Speaker 1: you and you you immediately said he wasn't being polite. Yeah,
Speaker 1: you were just being nice. It was what we call propaganda.
Speaker 1: My good friend Mikey, being from Iowa, is someone who
Speaker 1: likes to, you know, indulge in a little propaganda and
Speaker 1: get his sick of fans to go along with him.
Speaker 1: So we created an entire narrative that was completely completely nonsense,
Speaker 1: and Dr Bob put a stop to the nonsense, because
Speaker 1: Dr Bob is a man of substance, not like certain
Speaker 1: people who eat popcorn and drink wine at the south Point. Enough,
Speaker 1: there it is. I don't say a word and he
Speaker 1: comes right after. Um. Let me just can I say this?
Speaker 1: Because we're the Master's first round is going on as
Speaker 1: we're recording this, Eldrick Tiger Woods is two shots back.
Speaker 1: If Tiger Woods wins circu closes on Monday, it's over
Speaker 1: fifty three to while we could kill for the Tiger
Speaker 1: Blue Jay afternoon mattenee. We got, we got, we got,
Speaker 1: we got, we got the os at the Rangers and
Speaker 1: then we got three thousand people coming for it. And
Speaker 1: Bryson to Shambo, by the way, is even par through
Speaker 1: ten and he's been in the Woods the entire round.
Speaker 1: So the fact that he's even and only five shots
Speaker 1: back to me is still also the story of the round.
Speaker 1: But anyway, football week number ten, Mike, Before we get
Speaker 1: to our format with the three best bets, the teasers,
Speaker 1: the survivor and all that, michigas um three ten left
Speaker 1: and survivor. The inaugural survivor contested circuits started with somehow
Speaker 1: three survived This week. I was on the Steelers. That
Speaker 1: was just by the skin of my teeth that everybody
Speaker 1: else who had the Steelers. And then, oh my god,
Speaker 1: the Patriots very resilient entrance. It's incredible. You know, if
Speaker 1: Anthony Lynn could coach it, all would probably be over
Speaker 1: at this point. He had a chance to knock out
Speaker 1: the Chiefs in week two, he had a chance to
Speaker 1: knock out the Buccaneers. People that have a chance to
Speaker 1: knock out the Saints. I mean all those games that
Speaker 1: he blew those big leads in. But so we set
Speaker 1: with three ten. We still had another week where an
Speaker 1: entry wasn't placed. So all nine weeks so far, somebody
Speaker 1: hasn't turned in. How about they're the guy that went
Speaker 1: eight no, and you're one of the three thirty or
Speaker 1: whatever left and you don't put the enter. I s incredible.
Speaker 1: But here's the question. This week, two seventy of the
Speaker 1: three ten have green Bay left. How many people will
Speaker 1: choose green Bay this week? I asked that on a
Speaker 1: numbers game this morning and Jason said two thirds. And
Speaker 1: I said, if it's two thirds, it's an upset. I
Speaker 1: think it's more than that. Yeah, really, well, how many
Speaker 1: people know how to play game? Theory or how many
Speaker 1: people take the game literally and just want to survive.
Speaker 1: And that's not to say I'm not going to play
Speaker 1: green Bay, because I might end up with green Bay.
Speaker 1: So maybe I'm playing it wrong too. But if you're
Speaker 1: playing it right, and if you're playing it to win,
Speaker 1: you probably don't take green Bay. You take somebody else
Speaker 1: and hope for a calamity. It's an interesting week because
Speaker 1: you're just you're just ten days away from Thanksgiving, which
Speaker 1: will really be the the seminal moment of So that's
Speaker 1: the thing about Circuit Survivor. Last thing on this Thanksgiving
Speaker 1: is the cork. It's the eighteenth week. It's a week
Speaker 1: on an in and of itself, and it's Detroit, Houston,
Speaker 1: It's Washington, Dallas, it's Pittsburgh, Baltimore. Man, it's a prayer
Speaker 1: for everybody. A lot of people have already used Pittsburgh
Speaker 1: and Baltimore. Have you considered that Pittsburgh Of those other
Speaker 1: four teams, who would you select? There's no obvious choice
Speaker 1: unless there's some injury news or COVID news or something
Speaker 1: comes out. Who's gonna play quarterback for either Dallas or
Speaker 1: washing No idea, And can you trust Detroit or Houston.
Speaker 1: Can you Yeah, it's it's a prayer that day. I
Speaker 1: do want to mention this, yes, because this was brought
Speaker 1: up on one of the other shows on the Visa
Speaker 1: Network for Survivor Thanksgiving, there's there's one before you. What
Speaker 1: is the deadline to get to pick in? We all
Speaker 1: know what's Saturday. I was gonna ask you this. It's
Speaker 1: Wednesday night at ten pm Pacific, So I want all
Speaker 1: of our listeners out there to know that that are
Speaker 1: still in Pacific. So one am Eastern Thursday morning. Okay,
Speaker 1: that's that's a good question. That's a good answer to know. Alright,
Speaker 1: let's start with our best bets for a week number
Speaker 1: ten in the NFL BOB we usually start with a
Speaker 1: Thursday night game. Actually, that's the way this works. Is
Speaker 1: your do do you have any thoughts on Thursday night?
Speaker 1: And if you do, is it one of your three
Speaker 1: best bet? Sir? I do? And it is all right?
Speaker 1: What is it? Fire away? All right? I like Indianapolis.
Speaker 1: I released them to my clients earlier in the week
Speaker 1: when it was plus one and a half. It's now
Speaker 1: minus one. I still like Indianapolis. Um Tennessee, my models
Speaker 1: had them overrated most of the season. The metrics aren't
Speaker 1: particularly good. They've played the second third easiest schedule in
Speaker 1: the league. They run the ball far too much to
Speaker 1: be an efficient offense, and that works sometimes because Derrick
Speaker 1: Henry can break off some big runs. And if you
Speaker 1: have explosive running plays, that's that's that's pretty good from
Speaker 1: an analytics standpoint. But if you do not have explosive
Speaker 1: running plays, we were wasting your time running the ball
Speaker 1: in the NFL, and the Colts do not give up
Speaker 1: explosive running plays. So I think it's a good matchup
Speaker 1: for the Colts in that sense. Also, Dorry Jackson is
Speaker 1: not playing. He was activated, but he is not playing
Speaker 1: for the Titans. Um so the Colts should That should
Speaker 1: help the Colts out there. Darius Leonard is playing for
Speaker 1: the Colts. He's missed two and a half games so far.
Speaker 1: He practiced this week and he's ready to go. Uh.
Speaker 1: They're They're top five defense, even though he's missed two
Speaker 1: and a half games. He's one of their key players.
Speaker 1: So I like the I just like the matchup here. Also,
Speaker 1: Hannahill might struggle. They target tight ends a lot. The
Speaker 1: Titans do second most in the league, and the Colts
Speaker 1: only about five point two yards per target to tight ends.
Speaker 1: In the meantime, Xavier Rose, one of the top corners
Speaker 1: in the league in shadow A. J. Brown, And I
Speaker 1: think the other Colts defensive backs can handle the rest
Speaker 1: of the Titans receiver. So I like the matchup, and uh,
Speaker 1: my math model favors favors the Colts here and Bob,
Speaker 1: I buried the headline because I did it on the
Speaker 1: radio side this morning, so I forgot to do it
Speaker 1: again here. Your record this year thus far in the
Speaker 1: NFL against the spread is uh thirty in is that right?
Speaker 1: Thirty and third? He is fourteen and one the last
Speaker 1: three weeks, and I was sixteen and twelve, thirty and thirteen,
Speaker 1: thirty and thirteen. It ain't bethany Poris, but it's pretty
Speaker 1: damn good. Thirty and thirteen is Bob said on on
Speaker 1: the numbers game on Visa this morning. The sort of
Speaker 1: coin flip games have by and large gone your way,
Speaker 1: and that's how you get to thirty and thirteen. You're good,
Speaker 1: but you're also getting good fortune. Two right, the last
Speaker 1: two weeks has been all blowouts. You've been getting the
Speaker 1: emails the last two weeks. We're nine and one, and
Speaker 1: it's all all nine wins were easy. The week before that,
Speaker 1: I was four and o or five and oh at
Speaker 1: four O five and oh um, and I think three
Speaker 1: of those were nail biers, you know, and I don't
Speaker 1: want all three of them. In general, I've been winning
Speaker 1: more close games than losing in the NFL. But I'd
Speaker 1: still be hitting, you know, sixty three sixty four percent
Speaker 1: if i'd split the toss up games. It's just been
Speaker 1: a good year for the model. And I think we've
Speaker 1: talked about it this morning. Um, you know, I think,
Speaker 1: you know, adjusting for for all your injuries other than
Speaker 1: just quarterbacks, mostly the market just to just for quarterbacks
Speaker 1: and maybe a half point for McCaffrey or in the
Speaker 1: leite wide receiver, but we just for every you know everything,
Speaker 1: offensive lineman, edge rushers, cornerbacks. I mean, we had just
Speaker 1: for every position, and I think that really gives it
Speaker 1: gives us an edge. Yeah. I brought that up this
Speaker 1: morning of all the things that I learned from you
Speaker 1: over the years, Bob. And by the way, if I
Speaker 1: may just say to you on this podcast, there was
Speaker 1: no better person to work with to have a school
Speaker 1: of handicapping than it was to work with you, and
Speaker 1: that was I always thought that was your forte was
Speaker 1: the ability, and this was more in a basketball contest
Speaker 1: than football, to to properly assess the value of players
Speaker 1: and in players out. I always thought that was your
Speaker 1: best edge and stuff, and so that that's why I
Speaker 1: asked that this morning. And uh, at least part of
Speaker 1: your success this year based on that. That does not
Speaker 1: surprise at all. Mikey, your first play no Thursday night,
Speaker 1: Do you have any thoughts? My best bet is your
Speaker 1: third best bet the under tonight under forty eight in
Speaker 1: this game, and I agree so well, that's even better.
Speaker 1: Thank you for being a man of such integrity. Ton
Speaker 1: I agree with I agree with Bob's analysis and that
Speaker 1: I think Tennessee is gonna have a hard time running
Speaker 1: the football. And if Tennessee cannot run the football, Tannehill
Speaker 1: is much less effective as a strictly dropped back passer.
Speaker 1: I mean, his success is off the play action based
Speaker 1: on Derrick's Henry's ability to run the football. UM at
Speaker 1: this stage in his career. UM, I'm not the biggest
Speaker 1: Philip Rivers fan, but I'm just I'm just not at
Speaker 1: the light. But the key to defending Rivers really to
Speaker 1: get him off his spot and to make him move around.
Speaker 1: Tennessee hasn't had much of a pass rush. I think
Speaker 1: Rivers will be able to control the ball and control
Speaker 1: the clock tonight. And I have a hard time seeing
Speaker 1: this game getting to forty nine or fifty. I think
Speaker 1: I think this I like Bob's playing there. I think
Speaker 1: this is a I think this is seventeen type of
Speaker 1: a game, and I would lean Colts, but I like
Speaker 1: the under Moore and so that'll be my third best
Speaker 1: bet and a lot of Derek. Maybe the maybe the
Speaker 1: team total Tennessee team total under then would be our
Speaker 1: our combined play. Yeah, absolutely makes sense. Yeah, Todd, any
Speaker 1: thoughts on Thursday night? Two things? First of all, did
Speaker 1: you want me to update the records or no? Yeah,
Speaker 1: please update the records. I'm so sorry. It's like I've
Speaker 1: never been here before. Okay, the records are really improving.
Speaker 1: Gills up to fourteen twelve and one after another nice week.
Speaker 1: Mikey up to fifteen eleven and one after another nice week,
Speaker 1: And I had a pretty good week. Two and I'm
Speaker 1: up to thirteen and fourteen. Gil and Mikey lost both
Speaker 1: their teasers to fall in six and three on teasers.
Speaker 1: I want my teaser to go to seven and two
Speaker 1: on teasers. So that's your little update on that teasers. Now,
Speaker 1: as far as Thursday Night goes, I would like to
Speaker 1: go with Bob two, but I'm not going to. The
Speaker 1: reason I'm not going to is not because I disagree
Speaker 1: with anything Bob says. I agree with it. I would
Speaker 1: love to bet on Indie tonight. I think it's the
Speaker 1: correct side. I won't do it because I started. I
Speaker 1: went to a little meeting the other day called f
Speaker 1: p r A. It's called philip Rivers Anonymous. I will
Speaker 1: not bet on philip Rivers anymore p r A philip
Speaker 1: Rivers Anonymous, and I messed up the p r A
Speaker 1: p r A, and it means you we've all decided
Speaker 1: as a group not to bet on Philip Rivers anymore
Speaker 1: due to the lack of um your soul to be
Speaker 1: able to keep coming through when he screws you late. Now,
Speaker 1: if I wasn't in that meeting of philip Rivers Anonymous,
Speaker 1: I would like Indie because I think that um colts
Speaker 1: have trouble when Indie get when they get a big
Speaker 1: pass rush against the me and you both had Baltimore
Speaker 1: last week, Gil and I thought we were in trouble early,
Speaker 1: and then of course the fumble recovery for the touchdown
Speaker 1: turned the tables on the whole game. But I think
Speaker 1: it really shows that if you if Indy has a
Speaker 1: game where Philip Rivers is going to be pressured, they
Speaker 1: have no chance because obviously he can't move, But if
Speaker 1: they have a situation where he can, you know, just
Speaker 1: sit and pick people apart, like tonight, Tennessee is not
Speaker 1: very good defensively. You know, I like Indie two, but
Speaker 1: like I said, I won't bet on Philip Rivers. Todd,
Speaker 1: you you summed up my thoughts on this game perfectly,
Speaker 1: because if I had not attended that meeting, I don't
Speaker 1: know if you saw me in the back of the class.
Speaker 1: I don't like to show myself. I was in the back.
Speaker 1: But well, it's anonymous, we're really not supposed to be
Speaker 1: talking about. Yeah. I would probably go to the Indianapolis
Speaker 1: side as well. Uh and but let me just talk
Speaker 1: about that Baltimore Indianapolis game for a second. We've talked
Speaker 1: about this forever on a Numbers game I know you
Speaker 1: and I did on Wish I have Wednesdays last year.
Speaker 1: Key fourth in one situation for the Colts in that
Speaker 1: game last week against Baltimore, They're down twenty one to ten.
Speaker 1: There's five thirty four left in the game. It's fourth
Speaker 1: and one. At the Baltimore six team kick a field goal,
Speaker 1: they go down eight. Okay, they decided to go for
Speaker 1: fourth and one. What do we know about Philip Rivers teams?
Speaker 1: He does not sneak. He doesn't sneak. The defense never
Speaker 1: has to prepare for it. Pass play never has a chance. Typical.
Speaker 1: Philip Rivers typical. And that's such a key point in
Speaker 1: games where the defense doesn't have it's a competitive advantage
Speaker 1: for them. I really believe that you need is bruder
Speaker 1: z Appruter film to find Philip Rivers sneaks. So I
Speaker 1: can't play this game. Rivers has a better spread record
Speaker 1: than Tannehill this year. The same where's that Mikey best bet? Bob?
Speaker 1: That was your number one best bet? Right? Oh? That
Speaker 1: was one of them. I just, oh, there are we
Speaker 1: ranking the best bets? Yeah? That was my number one.
Speaker 1: That was his number one. Alright, Mikey, you're number one
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go back to I'll go back to a
Speaker 1: team I've had the last two weeks. I lost with
Speaker 1: them two weeks ago, covered last week. I'm gonna go
Speaker 1: back to the Baltimore Ravens UH playing against New England.
Speaker 1: UH in the evening game on Sunday, listen, New England
Speaker 1: could not stop the Jets running the football. Before you
Speaker 1: get into the discussion, what what line are we giving him,
Speaker 1: Gil Baltimore is that's an excellent question. I think it's
Speaker 1: mostly seven sevens not happening with that, Well, it's not
Speaker 1: seven and a half. So the New England had no
Speaker 1: ability to stop the Jets from running the football and
Speaker 1: and by all means, Adam Gaze did a masterful job
Speaker 1: avoiding a win on Monday Night. In the game, they
Speaker 1: really should look how good Flacco look because of the
Speaker 1: play action they had to try to commit to the run.
Speaker 1: They were missing Gilmore. But here's the point, Baltimore is
Speaker 1: going to be a Baltimore plays well against bad teams. Baltimore,
Speaker 1: it's too fast on defense for New England to be
Speaker 1: able to sustain drives. It's not going to be like
Speaker 1: where Belichick could just control the whole clock in the
Speaker 1: fourth quarter and not let the Jets onto the field.
Speaker 1: That's not happening. Baltimore is going to be able to
Speaker 1: run the ball at will, and when they can run
Speaker 1: the ball, Lamar Jackson can be an effective play action passer. Um.
Speaker 1: I would lay up to ten ten and a half
Speaker 1: in this say, I just don't think this game is
Speaker 1: going to be close. Baltimore will get to the lead,
Speaker 1: and when they play from the lead, they're devastatingly good team. Uh,
Speaker 1: this is one of my better best bets of the year.
Speaker 1: Ravens minus seven minus seven wait, wait to stop while
Speaker 1: I was adjusting my mask. Seven. That's all right? What
Speaker 1: of your favorite ones of the year? You said, I
Speaker 1: really like this playoff? Okay, I like it Todd number one.
Speaker 1: You know I I I'm with Mikey on this one.
Speaker 1: I like it a lot to one of my you know,
Speaker 1: I would say it's my best bet. Two. I'm going
Speaker 1: with Baltimore minus seven to I. I just think that
Speaker 1: Baltimore beats up on bad teams. Um. New England is
Speaker 1: not a good team this year. Uh. If you have
Speaker 1: to struggle to beat the Jets, come on, I mean,
Speaker 1: who are we kidding? Have you watched this the Denver game.
Speaker 1: Did you see how poorly they were offensively against Denver?
Speaker 1: They're just not a very offensively explosive football team. Cam
Speaker 1: Newton is not super accurate anyways, There's no one to
Speaker 1: throw to even if he was accurate. Uh, you know,
Speaker 1: they give it to running backs. They're not super exciting.
Speaker 1: They're just struggle offensively. I mean, sure they could score
Speaker 1: against the Jets on eight team play drives, but how
Speaker 1: are you going to do that against Baltimore. I think
Speaker 1: they're gonna get killed. And Baltimore loves to beat up
Speaker 1: on bad teams, so you know Belichick is gonna pull
Speaker 1: out all the stops and everything. But I I just
Speaker 1: like Baltimore minus seven. I mean, come on, this is
Speaker 1: this is a tale of totally different classes of teams.
Speaker 1: The Jets thing the other night was very peculiar, wasn't it.
Speaker 1: There was a fourth and three in the first half.
Speaker 1: I think it was three to nothing at the time.
Speaker 1: Don't hold me to that. They were in plus territory
Speaker 1: and they punted and that was like, what are they
Speaker 1: doing their own eight? And then late in that game,
Speaker 1: when they're still up, Flacco with with what amounted to
Speaker 1: a fourth and one punt excuse me, a first down
Speaker 1: punt where he just threw the ball up in the
Speaker 1: air gets picked. Uh. And then they had the twelve
Speaker 1: men on the field during a field goal. Okay uh.
Speaker 1: And then there was a third and twenty for the
Speaker 1: Patriots where the Jets played off the receivers and they
Speaker 1: got nineteen and you're like, they really, they really try
Speaker 1: to win this. And so for those of us the
Speaker 1: survivor who were like rooting heavily against the people who
Speaker 1: have had New England, that was a bitter pill to swallow,
Speaker 1: but it didn't make you wonder. And I'm no conspiracy theorist,
Speaker 1: but there was a lot of things that happened in
Speaker 1: that football game. By the way, that was a great
Speaker 1: That was a great in game opportunity. I had the
Speaker 1: over in that game. Midway through the second quarter. Both
Speaker 1: teams were averaging seven point two yards per play. At
Speaker 1: the time. The game was supposed to be like line
Speaker 1: forty or forty two. Before the game, no one thought
Speaker 1: any points would be scored, so there was absolutely no
Speaker 1: correlation to the way the game was playing at seven
Speaker 1: point two yards per play for each team and what
Speaker 1: the actual line was it went easily over even with
Speaker 1: drives that were like eleven minutes long. So you know, guys,
Speaker 1: in game, if you're not watching this in game stuff,
Speaker 1: you know you gotta do it. It's it's there's so
Speaker 1: many opportunities. My my number one pick this week is
Speaker 1: the Cleveland Browns minus three against the Texans. Uh. This
Speaker 1: was on guessing lines with Chrissie Andrews on Monday. This
Speaker 1: was the line that clearly jumped off the page to
Speaker 1: me and made it. It made the least sense of all.
Speaker 1: I guessed Cleveland minus four and a half, and I thought,
Speaker 1: if anything, I was gonna be light. And he told me,
Speaker 1: he goes. You know, I said, I like your line better.
Speaker 1: I see nothing but two and a half and threes.
Speaker 1: And then you thought, well, maybe this is because Baker
Speaker 1: Mayfield is in the reserve COVID nineteen lists, and so
Speaker 1: it's some kind of strange, nebulous thing that's happening. Nope,
Speaker 1: Baker Mayfield uh is off that he is eligible to play.
Speaker 1: He will play, and it's minus three with extra juice.
Speaker 1: That's the consensus, right right, I see three and a
Speaker 1: half and and one three minus twenty five? What do
Speaker 1: you see Dr bob um it's split. I think three
Speaker 1: minus twenty five or three and a a half is a choice.
Speaker 1: I think we we need to give you three and
Speaker 1: a half to be fair. Go oh wait a minute,
Speaker 1: I see nothing but threes. Three minus twenty five is
Speaker 1: probably consensus. Three minus twenty five is consensus, Todd. That's
Speaker 1: how this works. You don't give me a minus three
Speaker 1: and a half in minus one ten? Well, three is
Speaker 1: almost three and a half. But okay, it is whatever.
Speaker 1: But I'm just looking across the screen and the kinsensis
Speaker 1: of minus three minus one anyway, Okay, are you gonna
Speaker 1: Are you gonna if this pick loses town? Are you
Speaker 1: gonna grade Gil has more than one loss? Because it's
Speaker 1: great point. It's a great point, Mike. Maybe we should
Speaker 1: do that, give him a quarter loss. There you go.
Speaker 1: Let's just have that for the rest of the year,
Speaker 1: hanging on it if it doesn't be awesome. Houston's only
Speaker 1: wins this year Jacksonville and Jacksonville UM, and they have
Speaker 1: lost to everybody else. It's been a tough schedule though,
Speaker 1: Kansas City, Baltimore, Pittsburgh, Minnesota, Tennessee, and Green Bay. So
Speaker 1: no real shame and all that, but they do get
Speaker 1: housed by most of most of those teams. Anyway, I'll
Speaker 1: just get back to the original. I'm gonna just go
Speaker 1: with my first instinct. This line makes no sense to me.
Speaker 1: Cleveland is by far a better football team. Deshaun Watson
Speaker 1: came out this week and said, if will Fuller had
Speaker 1: been traded, it would have sent him into depression. I
Speaker 1: don't think that football team is right. They don't scare me. Jacksonville.
Speaker 1: Jake Luton, in his first game as a pro, went
Speaker 1: for over three hundred yards against the Texans defense and
Speaker 1: they needed to stave off a two point conversion to
Speaker 1: prevent overtime. Give me the Browns minus three extra juice
Speaker 1: my number one pick, Bob number two. I'm gonna go
Speaker 1: with Philadelphia now. The Eagles have been struggling all year
Speaker 1: to stay the least, and they struggled against the Giants
Speaker 1: when they played them in the Meadowlands. But Philadelphia is
Speaker 1: healthier now than they've been in a while. Um they
Speaker 1: get four skill position players back this week, well, not
Speaker 1: all of them back this week, but Miles Sanders is back,
Speaker 1: Jasen Rigor and Dallas go to the tight end and
Speaker 1: Al Sean Jeffrey, so they have more weapons for Carson Wentz,
Speaker 1: and I think he's been really struggling because he's been
Speaker 1: forcing a lot of throws. And I think that more
Speaker 1: people open now with all these receivers back, plus Miles Sanders. UM,
Speaker 1: so I think we're gonna have a good match up there.
Speaker 1: I mean, Giants have one good defensive back in James
Speaker 1: Bradberry UM and he'll probably take Travis Fulgan and that
Speaker 1: might be a toss up when he might shut him down.
Speaker 1: But now Lens has other targets that he can go to,
Speaker 1: and the rest of the Giants cornerbacks are combining to
Speaker 1: surrender one point seven yards per cover snap, which, if
Speaker 1: you know anything about yards per cover snap, one point
Speaker 1: six six is not good. It's very bad. So I
Speaker 1: think Philadelphia will definitely be better equipped this time around
Speaker 1: against the Giants defense. UM, and they're gonna put a
Speaker 1: lot of pressure on Daniel Jones as as usual. Um
Speaker 1: He's face pressure league high forty three of the time.
Speaker 1: I don't see how anybody's gonna block flex or Cox.
Speaker 1: I mean, they're their guards and centers are terrible. The Giants,
Speaker 1: speaking of Um, the right tackle Fleming ranks forty nine
Speaker 1: out of fifty five qualifying tackles and blocking efficiency pass
Speaker 1: blocking efficiency that is, and they'll have trouble with Brandon
Speaker 1: Graham with seven sacks, it's just fourth in the league.
Speaker 1: So I think they'll get acbility, will get a lot
Speaker 1: of pressure, and they'll have more options on offense. And
Speaker 1: I think when Philadelphia is healthy as they are now,
Speaker 1: I think they were better than average team. And the
Speaker 1: Giants I think they still suck. I mean, they were
Speaker 1: out game by three yards of play last week, and
Speaker 1: they're winn against Washington and they were plus five in
Speaker 1: turnovers and barely won the game. So I think it's
Speaker 1: a good opportunity. I think maybe that game gets as
Speaker 1: lined out of here. So I like Philly minus the
Speaker 1: three and a half average corner back three five. Look
Speaker 1: at that, I could do the I could play the
Speaker 1: Guild game here, the Guild game twenty five. By the way,
Speaker 1: Bob average allow average cornerback in terms of their targets
Speaker 1: allows what about six completion rate um wide receivers? Yeah
Speaker 1: around there, okay, probably a little. Yeah. The yards cover
Speaker 1: snap is one point four, you know, something like that,
Speaker 1: one point three, one point four there at one point
Speaker 1: six six if I'm good, all right, Philadelphia minus three
Speaker 1: extra juice number two for you, Mikey. I like the
Speaker 1: Buffalo Bills. Oh do you the Buffalo Bills? Todd? What's
Speaker 1: the number that you have as a consensus Bills? I have, yeah,
Speaker 1: one and a half two, something like that. I'd say too,
Speaker 1: because I see some two and a half two. That's
Speaker 1: too okay. I'll take the Bills plus two. I like
Speaker 1: the spot that that the Bills are in right now.
Speaker 1: I mean, we're starting to see the progression of Josh
Speaker 1: Allen here and in an ability to run an offense
Speaker 1: um that has some balance to it. I'm, you know,
Speaker 1: in the I first sense some issues with this Cardinals
Speaker 1: offense and that Monday night game against Dallas. This this
Speaker 1: team is just doesn't click on all cylinders. I don't
Speaker 1: I don't know what's missing there. I don't know if
Speaker 1: it's the play calling. I don't know if it's Kyler Murray,
Speaker 1: but I don't know if it's a lack of talent
Speaker 1: at wide receiver. But this car No offense should be
Speaker 1: more productive than it is, especially in terms of of
Speaker 1: of passing efficiency. I think the Bills are a team
Speaker 1: on the rise. You're getting the benefit of travel even
Speaker 1: though it's not really a home field advantage, and making
Speaker 1: I mean, on a neutral field, Buffalo would be favorite.
Speaker 1: I would think, um, and so I think you get
Speaker 1: the better team here and you're getting a couple of points,
Speaker 1: and I think this is a solid team and the
Speaker 1: defense he's got a better head coach. I'll take the bills.
Speaker 1: That screams one of my teaser legs coming up, screams
Speaker 1: and show. She would be great for the show. Whether
Speaker 1: what do you think she's great or not, she'd still
Speaker 1: be great for the show for the show. Can I
Speaker 1: just say something about Cliff Kingsbury just for a minute,
Speaker 1: because he killed my over thirty four and a half
Speaker 1: in game and my Arizona last week. I don't know
Speaker 1: if you guys watched the absolute nonsense fourth down and one.
Speaker 1: It's thirty one, all six or seven minutes to go,
Speaker 1: and they've given Kyler Murray has been unstoppable on the
Speaker 1: short yard. Instead they hand off some other dude who
Speaker 1: can't even come close to getting a first down. Now
Speaker 1: Miami gets the ball, goes down, kicks the field goal,
Speaker 1: and now here comes Arizona. Back again, fourth and one,
Speaker 1: again from the thirty one, and this time the dope
Speaker 1: decides to kick a field goal with less than two
Speaker 1: minutes ago. I don't understand why you would even kick
Speaker 1: a field You're only tied and you give them a
Speaker 1: minute and a half to win the game. Anyways, it's
Speaker 1: a stupid decision in the first place. And then if
Speaker 1: you're gonna go ahead and do it, maybe have a
Speaker 1: kicker who can make a forty seven yard and come
Speaker 1: up short short. Came up short. That's the crime, right,
Speaker 1: How do you come up short in the NFL on
Speaker 1: a forty seven yard or with beautiful field conditions. It's ridiculous.
Speaker 1: It could only happen to me. Thanks Hashem Sham does
Speaker 1: it again? Oh Hasham always getting a ton? By the way,
Speaker 1: just to be fair, it was a forty nine yarder
Speaker 1: from Zaying gets Allas whatever. I don't care whether it's God.
Speaker 1: I've made my pick, but I want to raise this
Speaker 1: parliamentary procedure point now that we're going down this path.
Speaker 1: Could I have taken instead no defensive or special teams
Speaker 1: touchdown in the Packers game minus three ten? Would that
Speaker 1: have been allowed as a pick? I'm pretty sure that's
Speaker 1: not allowed. Okay, I'm just just clarifying. But we do
Speaker 1: we do a contest on a prime time action. We
Speaker 1: just do a golf draft where we just get five picks.
Speaker 1: It could be in any market outright, top ten, head
Speaker 1: to heads whatever and uh and Kelly Bidlin went with
Speaker 1: top top Canadian or something, a top nationality and he
Speaker 1: wedged his way into a you know, a victory that way.
Speaker 1: We're like, I don't think you could do that next time.
Speaker 1: That doesn't sound fair. So now that's all we're doing. Um,
Speaker 1: who are we? Where are we taught? Your number two? Four? Mike?
Speaker 1: He has given three picks. Me and you each have
Speaker 1: given one pick, and Bob's given two picks. All right,
Speaker 1: number two from you, Toddy, Okay, my second pick is
Speaker 1: gonna be the Tampa Bay Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Bhoy, did
Speaker 1: that team look bad last week? I like good teams
Speaker 1: that got embarrassed the week before, if we uh noticed, uh,
Speaker 1: the Niners before they became aim a mash unit had
Speaker 1: a horrible game and against Miami, came back and spanked
Speaker 1: New England. I believe if that was the correct sequence.
Speaker 1: But the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, I mean what's there to say?
Speaker 1: Somehow the Saints were getting pressure on Tom he couldn't
Speaker 1: do anything. The whole game was just a throat in
Speaker 1: the garbage kind of game. Are the Bucks really that bad? No?
Speaker 1: I don't think they are. Are they as great as
Speaker 1: everyone was making them into into Super Bowl contenders? No?
Speaker 1: I don't think they're that great either. But you have
Speaker 1: to think that if they're going to get these players
Speaker 1: attention and have a true, tremendous focused game, it's after
Speaker 1: getting spanked on national television in Tom Brady's probably most
Speaker 1: embarrassing game as a pro. I would think I can't
Speaker 1: even remember any other game where that happened to Tom Brady.
Speaker 1: So I gotta think that everybody in the Buccaneer building
Speaker 1: is totally on board with making sure they have a
Speaker 1: big performance. The Carolina Panthers ain't nothing special. There's no
Speaker 1: reason why they shouldn't be able to cover the five
Speaker 1: and a half or what is that the number you have,
Speaker 1: gil five and a half or six? I got what
Speaker 1: do we got it? Hold on? I got turned away
Speaker 1: here like bro I got it at uh five? Hold
Speaker 1: on six? Six, I'll take it at minus six. I
Speaker 1: think the Buccaneers can handle this team. Um, you know,
Speaker 1: they played him earlier in the year and pretty much
Speaker 1: handled them easily. So I'm gonna go with the Bucks
Speaker 1: because I gotta feel like everybody's gotta, you know, just
Speaker 1: be totally coming back to focus because of that spanking Todd,
Speaker 1: you and I arapo on this. My number two picks
Speaker 1: the Carolina Panthers plus six. Um, I don't see why
Speaker 1: I shouldn't take the six points at all. Here again,
Speaker 1: just a triat to Dr Bob here. If we want
Speaker 1: to tuck yards per play in terms of offense, Carolina
Speaker 1: actually uh, and they will not have Christian McCaffrey here.
Speaker 1: McCaffrey will come back the following week, so they got
Speaker 1: a more optimistic diagnosis than they thought they would. But
Speaker 1: no Christian McCaffrey here. Uh. Caroline has lost every game
Speaker 1: that McCaffrey has play. Just coincidentally, but Carolina's six yards
Speaker 1: uh per play on offense Tampa Bay five point five.
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay's defense, though in yards per play, is better,
Speaker 1: but not by an egregious margins. Also by uh just
Speaker 1: over half a yard, and um, listen, Carolina probably could
Speaker 1: have beaten Kansas City last week. They had a field
Speaker 1: goal try at the end to try to do that.
Speaker 1: They probably should have beaten New Orleans. New Orleans, that is,
Speaker 1: but Teddy Bridgewater took a really bad sack in a
Speaker 1: late game situation and that forced another Joey slide ridiculously
Speaker 1: long field goal. Tim. I think the Panthers are are
Speaker 1: a very solid football team, um, and if you're giving
Speaker 1: me six at home, that's kind of an auto play
Speaker 1: for me. That Tampa Bay thing on Sunday night, Man,
Speaker 1: that was dreadful. And I get it, they're not gonna
Speaker 1: be that bad every week, but there was a moment
Speaker 1: there where I actually felt sorry for Tom Brady like
Speaker 1: they they looked like some moribund team. I will take
Speaker 1: Carolina in the six and be very happy be with
Speaker 1: that bet. And if if Tampa Bay can beat me,
Speaker 1: tip of the cap. We don't see that very often
Speaker 1: on the show. Dr Bob, Bob still pick number three, Bob,
Speaker 1: You're gonna see it again here, Gil. I like Tampa
Speaker 1: Bay two back and back. Last week. As you know, Gil,
Speaker 1: I was on the Saints and I thought they could
Speaker 1: put pressure on Tom Brady as they did the first
Speaker 1: time they played, and so far this season. Uh, tom
Speaker 1: Brady has been well. It's been pressured thirty two times
Speaker 1: in two games against the Saints. That makes a thirty
Speaker 1: seven percent of his total times being pressured the entire season. Obviously,
Speaker 1: when Tom Brady is not pressured, he does business. UM.
Speaker 1: Last week, part of the problem for Tampa Bay was
Speaker 1: that they're starting left guard was out. Um Ali Market
Speaker 1: ranked second in the league in past blocking efficiency at
Speaker 1: his position. He'll be back from his concussion this week.
Speaker 1: The backup guard was horrible surrenders seven pressures last week,
Speaker 1: and you know they're not gonna have that issue this week.
Speaker 1: Carolina does not have much of a pass rush. UM
Speaker 1: and you don't want to go against Tom terrific after
Speaker 1: a loss. In his career, and this includes his first
Speaker 1: year when he wasn't that good, although they did win
Speaker 1: the Super Bowl. Um Brady is fifty three and fifteen
Speaker 1: straight up off the loss, forty six and twenty two
Speaker 1: against the spread, two and oh this year with the
Speaker 1: Bucks off the loss, and if he's not laying seven
Speaker 1: or more off the loss, thirty six and ten against
Speaker 1: the spread in his career. UM and my math likes
Speaker 1: favorite Tampa Bay by nine, So I like I like
Speaker 1: Tampa Bay as well. How many of those Brady stats
Speaker 1: are with the Panthers, They're not with He's not with
Speaker 1: the Panthers. I mean, they're two and awful losses years.
Speaker 1: I'm undefeated, Gil, I'm gonna I'm gonna I'm gonna override
Speaker 1: that small sample size and say that I'm not I'm
Speaker 1: not gonna be sample size like Joe great Off the
Speaker 1: loss with the Niners, went to Kansas City. Great Off
Speaker 1: the loss with Kansas City. Very Now, I'll meet you
Speaker 1: both back here in a week. We'll reconvene, then we'll
Speaker 1: talk about it. Okay, alright, Uh number three you already
Speaker 1: had number three. Mike wheready had your three, which is
Speaker 1: called sunder Colts tight Todd number three Colts Titans under
Speaker 1: party eight and a half too. I am, I'm really
Speaker 1: struggling here for a third, but I'm gonna go with um.
Speaker 1: You know what I'm gonna go. I'm gonna go off on.
Speaker 1: Mike is just gonna take the Cardinals. I'm gonna take Arizona. NUS.
Speaker 1: I like this, and I'll tell you why. Um you know,
Speaker 1: I think Arizona, like I said, should have won that game.
Speaker 1: They had this game in you know, to a play great.
Speaker 1: By the way, I was totally wrong, or I could
Speaker 1: be totally wrong about two. I didn't say he wasn't
Speaker 1: gonna be great. I just said he didn't show anything
Speaker 1: against the Rams. But let me tell you something that
Speaker 1: Miami Dolphins football team and hit it. Miami Dolphins. Miami Dolphins,
Speaker 1: Brian Flores has taken us to the playoffs. This team
Speaker 1: is for real. Two I is awesome. Miami Dolphins all
Speaker 1: the way. Okay, and we got that done. Now I
Speaker 1: get to hit it next time. You can edit right.
Speaker 1: The Arizona Arizona should have won the football game. In
Speaker 1: my opinion, I think that, like you know, already went
Speaker 1: through Cliff Kingsbury's idiocy on fourth down. This this Kyler
Speaker 1: Murray fellow, he is unbelievably elusive. Have you seen anything
Speaker 1: like this? And and it looks like a video game.
Speaker 1: He gets out on the corner. You can't stop this guy.
Speaker 1: We've seen this already, Jackson, Yeah, I mean, what do
Speaker 1: you mean we've never seen this? Jack What about Ricky?
Speaker 1: What about Ricky Foggy? How about that we saw He's
Speaker 1: not Vince Vince? What's the guy from Texas He's not
Speaker 1: Vince m who couldn't throw. He's the guy the Titans
Speaker 1: obscure character. He can throw the football and he can
Speaker 1: run the football, and he runs the football. These guys
Speaker 1: aren't even close to him. I've never seen an elusiveness
Speaker 1: like like this guy has. It's incredible. I'm with Todd
Speaker 1: on this. I think it's unlike. It's not Listen, take
Speaker 1: your running quarterbacks from way back and Steve Young, Lamar Jackson,
Speaker 1: of course, Russell Wilson, whoever it is, Douglas, Bobby Douglas,
Speaker 1: whoever comes into your mind, turn your Gail Turner, Gil
Speaker 1: who by friends used to say my buddies and DC
Speaker 1: used to say to me, his name is Guilt turn
Speaker 1: but hated so he turned it around. H I agree
Speaker 1: with you, Todd. I've never seen anything quite like this kid.
Speaker 1: It's like a water bug man. You cannot find him.
Speaker 1: It's unbelievable. And I don't know why on fourth down
Speaker 1: it they didn't just run that read option every single time.
Speaker 1: It's unstoppable, absolutely unstoppable. So anyways, here's why I'm gonna
Speaker 1: take Arizona. The bills to me are coming along. I
Speaker 1: definitely agree with with Mikey here. This is a team
Speaker 1: that can move the football. I don't like their defense though,
Speaker 1: I'm not very impressed with their defense. Now you're asking
Speaker 1: them to go on the road after a gigantic performance
Speaker 1: against Seattle where they picked out the whipping stick. And
Speaker 1: by the way, that was one of my over picks
Speaker 1: last week. I didn't play a pregame and after the
Speaker 1: first drive they went right down and scored. It was
Speaker 1: then sixty one and I said, screw it, load the
Speaker 1: boat on over. It was such an easy over. Seattle
Speaker 1: is just incredible over team this year, as we said
Speaker 1: last week. But the Bills do not have a great fence.
Speaker 1: I think Kyler Murray is gonna be able to move
Speaker 1: the ball on them. And you know, coming off that
Speaker 1: huge win against Seattle, there's got there could be a
Speaker 1: letdown here Arizona coming off a disappointing game. They should
Speaker 1: have won the football game. You know, I get to
Speaker 1: go against Mikey. Is there anything more fun than that?
Speaker 1: Give me the Arizona Cardinals in the desert going down,
Speaker 1: Joshua Allen, Boston, Bobby, what did you say, Bobby Douglas
Speaker 1: that you said Bob Chicago Bears, se I'm old has
Speaker 1: a little before my time, Bobby, there was a guy
Speaker 1: named Evan, wasn't there Evans for the Bears, who also
Speaker 1: was like a running quarterback in the seventies and sevens.
Speaker 1: Was not a running quarterback. It was sort of a
Speaker 1: running quarterback, not really, not really, Bob Evelini is who
Speaker 1: you're atin? Oh? My number three, I'm like, Utah, I
Speaker 1: don't really know. After number two, it's sort of tough
Speaker 1: for me to come up with the number three. Um,
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna play the San Francisco forty Niners depletion.
Speaker 1: I'm gonna go with the Saints, right like, that's what
Speaker 1: I'm gonna do. I'm just gonna I'm just gonna Yeah,
Speaker 1: I'm just gonna act like what we saw with the
Speaker 1: Niners is what we're gonna get from the Niners through
Speaker 1: number you always got to get the best of the
Speaker 1: number nine. I'm gonna lay the nine here because I
Speaker 1: just don't think San Francisco has bodies to do this,
Speaker 1: and um, they do have a turnstyle running back. It
Speaker 1: doesn't seem to matter who they plug in there. But
Speaker 1: I just think the loss of Kittle was massive in
Speaker 1: all kinds of ways. On offense. That just takes a
Speaker 1: whole dimension out for them. Jordan Reed can't stay on
Speaker 1: a football field to save his life, even though he
Speaker 1: once had great promise. I don't think the Niners can
Speaker 1: can less as great as Kyle Shanahan is. I think
Speaker 1: Sean Payton can outdo him in this as well. By
Speaker 1: the way, I've been killing Taysom Hill and their inclusion
Speaker 1: of Taysom Hill into the offense time and time again
Speaker 1: this year. Man Taysom Hill look real good the other
Speaker 1: night in all kinds of ways, filling up a box score. Um,
Speaker 1: I'll take New Orleans and I'll give up the night.
Speaker 1: It's not something I like doing. But I just don't
Speaker 1: think San Francis. I think San Francisco has waived the
Speaker 1: white flag. I think that when they traded Kwan Alexander too.
Speaker 1: I just think they're like, you know what, this and
Speaker 1: this isn't gonna work out this year. And I'll ride
Speaker 1: that sentiment. I'll take the Saints for lack of a
Speaker 1: better other option. It'll be the Saints minus nine. All right,
Speaker 1: silence from the crowd, All right, let's do uh Teasers
Speaker 1: of the week. Todd in the teaser lead he's in
Speaker 1: the A T. S. T Sell and the teasers, you guys,
Speaker 1: are both six and three. So our teasers have been
Speaker 1: spot on this year. We have been absolutely pounding the teasers. Now.
Speaker 1: The reason we all went from six to one, Me
Speaker 1: and Mike went from six one, six and three is
Speaker 1: we didn't have Stanford long teaser legs available to us
Speaker 1: the last couple of weeks. But now we do. We
Speaker 1: have plenty to choose from. When when that's about yourself? Okay,
Speaker 1: so here's do you want my teaser first? You want
Speaker 1: like Bob's teaser first? Thanks very much? All right. I
Speaker 1: actually played a teaser early in the week, but it
Speaker 1: no longer qualifies. I played the Colts when they were
Speaker 1: plus one and a half. On Monday, I took the
Speaker 1: Colts with Seattle. Talking about long teasers plus seven and
Speaker 1: a half each. I'm still gonna use Seattle. They're still
Speaker 1: plus one and a half or two, so I can
Speaker 1: get them at plus seven and a half and they're
Speaker 1: gonna pair them with Chicago on Monday night. Home Dog
Speaker 1: plus eight and a half. You have danced, You have
Speaker 1: used all that. You've danced around and used all the
Speaker 1: all the long teaser legs that I didn't like as much, Todd. Okay,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna take the Bucks down to just win the game.
Speaker 1: Um so Bucks pick them, and I'm gonna take the
Speaker 1: Baltimore Ravens minus one. Okay, I'm going with Buffalo and
Speaker 1: the Chargers. I'm taking the two uh small road dogs
Speaker 1: in their respective games, teasing them up through the three
Speaker 1: and the and the seven. Chargers have lost every single
Speaker 1: game this year by seven points or fewer. I'll happily
Speaker 1: take them up to eight and a half or eight
Speaker 1: whatever it is, uh and play them against the Dolphins.
Speaker 1: Dolphins have been aided by defensive touchdowns the last couple
Speaker 1: of weeks. Unsustainable, that's what that is. Thanks. By the way,
Speaker 1: there's another group you can go to. A l Anonymous
Speaker 1: is another one. Look, yeah, no, but I'll take it ill. Yeah,
Speaker 1: they lose clothes, I'll take the Aaron Shots. Yeah. Aaron
Speaker 1: Shots from Football Outsiders was on a numbers game last week.
Speaker 1: He said, guess who the team is with the most
Speaker 1: consistent performance week after week. It's the Chargers. But because
Speaker 1: they crap it out. What's that the teaser Dream? Yeah,
Speaker 1: they're teaser dream. Chargers are one leg and then I'll
Speaker 1: take Buffalo. Mikey's one of Mikey's best bets. I'll tease
Speaker 1: Buffalo through the three and the seven. I don't think
Speaker 1: Arizona is a team that I expect to blow out Buffalo.
Speaker 1: I think at the very least Buffalo keeps it closed.
Speaker 1: So charges in Buffalo. I two had a dream, and
Speaker 1: I'm taking the Chargers plus eight and a half. When
Speaker 1: they tell the Anthony Lynn story, I think the title
Speaker 1: of it should be at least now you get draft picks.
Speaker 1: And then my other one is the Ravens, who I'm
Speaker 1: going to agree with. Todd teas them down to one.
Speaker 1: I don't hate that at all. By the way, I'm
Speaker 1: sorry to step out of line. It was your turn
Speaker 1: on my turn. There's no turns here. I apologize. Okay,
Speaker 1: we were Oh Survivor, Oh they only one a live? Bob,
Speaker 1: do you play Survivor at all? Wait? Who did you
Speaker 1: end up last? I'm sorry, I was asking Bob a
Speaker 1: question Todd got. I got knocked out last week, and
Speaker 1: I am getting who it was because it was so painful.
Speaker 1: I had it all set up. I'm in a loser's
Speaker 1: pool where you pick a loser each week. Oh that's right, yeah,
Speaker 1: pack them twice. Now, I had it set up. I
Speaker 1: had it so my last two weeks, and it's like
Speaker 1: it's thousands of people on this thing, so you need
Speaker 1: to really plan for the end because it always goes
Speaker 1: down to the end. And I had the Jets and Giants.
Speaker 1: The final two weeks is likely double digit dogs, all
Speaker 1: set up, mapped out, and I lost. I forgot who
Speaker 1: it was. It was brutal. So anyway, I'm out. I
Speaker 1: forgot it was, but I'm out of my loser's pool.
Speaker 1: All right, Todd, what was your point of clarification that tough? No,
Speaker 1: I just I forgot that you had said before that
Speaker 1: you took you ended up because last week you didn't
Speaker 1: tell us who you had, and then you ended up
Speaker 1: with Dallas, so you ended up Pittsburgh. Let's talk about that.
Speaker 1: If Gil gets down to the final three weeks and
Speaker 1: there's a hand for he can't be given out. His
Speaker 1: pick On already said this last week after Thanksgiving. I'm
Speaker 1: not giving him out. You can text us on Saturday
Speaker 1: afternoon or whatever, but that puts you at a disadvantam petitious.
Speaker 1: They already know what I discussion right there. Just jinx him.
Speaker 1: Good job, Mike. I hope gil wins. I got down
Speaker 1: to the final ten in an eight person pool a
Speaker 1: few years back, so I'm a I love survivor. H
Speaker 1: green Bay is not the correct pick to make if
Speaker 1: you're trying to win this thing, you should probably pick
Speaker 1: someone else. But I have a feeling I'm gonna end
Speaker 1: up picking green Bay because that was on my grid.
Speaker 1: That was on my map that I made for the season. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I think I'm just gonna end just There's just have
Speaker 1: many other good options. That's who I had mapped out
Speaker 1: Jacksonville map. If you had the brown still available, would
Speaker 1: you use them this week? No? I would. Green Bay
Speaker 1: is the obvious pick this week. I kept them for
Speaker 1: this week, so more than likely I'm going to use
Speaker 1: them this week. Alright, Final two questions? Are we already there? Wow? Brisk?
Speaker 1: This has been brisk. Not so much showed deference this
Speaker 1: this time around. Quicker. What was the source of that? Remember?
Speaker 1: He said, well, Dr Bob and then he started going
Speaker 1: on about the model. And I'm sure Dr Bob agrees
Speaker 1: with me. Dr Bob knows that that numbers can get
Speaker 1: polluted with dirty numbers based on stupid drives in the
Speaker 1: fourth quarter or a million other are different scenarios, and
Speaker 1: he cleans it up. I take those out, exactly, cleans
Speaker 1: it up. The things you need to be in them.
Speaker 1: I include them. If it's like in Polope, for instance,
Speaker 1: I take out all let's say it's Clemson. I will
Speaker 1: take out their garbage time stats if they're playing a
Speaker 1: team like Notre Dame, and if they're playing a team
Speaker 1: they're favored by twenty eight or more, and I'll reinsort
Speaker 1: them is they're probably gonna have garbage time, right. The
Speaker 1: real affront last year Todd spin this. The real affront
Speaker 1: was when the way he said doctor. Remember he said, well,
Speaker 1: doctor Bob, that's exactly how it was said, which shocked
Speaker 1: not a real doctor. So he had every right to
Speaker 1: say it like that. As as with everything with Todd,
Speaker 1: it's never the content, it's the vehicle with which he
Speaker 1: presents the content. Yes, we didn't like your tone, That's
Speaker 1: what I was. I was not offended, Mike. I have
Speaker 1: a problem with people who you know and get, you know,
Speaker 1: unearned titles. For instance, I know a guy who's a
Speaker 1: vice president of content management doesn't do a great job,
Speaker 1: but it calls himself a vice president. I mean give
Speaker 1: me a rate. I'll tell you what I earned that
Speaker 1: Dr Bob nickname. I was quite the basketball player, and
Speaker 1: I was nicknamed after Dr J. I figured up in
Speaker 1: a minority neighborhood and quite the street game, and I
Speaker 1: my last few years in high school, I moved to
Speaker 1: a pretty much all white sort of neighborhood, and they
Speaker 1: nicknamed me Dr Bob because I played like Dr J.
Speaker 1: They thought, where did you grow up? I grew up
Speaker 1: in balleto the suburb of the East Bay. And in
Speaker 1: the Bay are the mean streets of Leo. Like Tupac
Speaker 1: have a great story. I have a great story for
Speaker 1: you that that is similar to that one. I had
Speaker 1: just moved to l A and I was out playing
Speaker 1: pick up basketball in my neighborhood with nine black guys
Speaker 1: in me and I was the last one, and I
Speaker 1: played really, really well. After a little while, they're like,
Speaker 1: get the bat a, Larry Burn. Okay, we've done, We're
Speaker 1: done here. Where where's the shark? All you? Larry? Starting
Speaker 1: next week? All right, I'm Dr Bob and I earned it,
Speaker 1: You guys done. Todd Winn has survived in French Like
Speaker 1: I'll tell you that right now, he would not have Alright. Finally, questions, Um, first,
Speaker 1: the big favorite, most likely to lose? That right? Green
Speaker 1: Bay thirteen and a half. Well, let's call it thirteen
Speaker 1: point favorites at home against Jacksonville. Uh, there's not many
Speaker 1: candidates here in New Orleans. Maybe you could stay there
Speaker 1: they if the line goes back up, Yeah, let's call
Speaker 1: it Pittsburgh. I know where you're going with this, Bob.
Speaker 1: Pittsburgh north of seven for sure at home if Big
Speaker 1: Ben gets to play here. Uh, we'll see if he's
Speaker 1: cleared from the COVID nineteen reserve. Listen, here's a couple
Speaker 1: more negative tests. They would be north of a seven
Speaker 1: point favorite home against Cincinnati, New Orleans nine point favorites
Speaker 1: home against San Francisco, Baltimore seven point favorites on the
Speaker 1: road against New England. Who's the most likely to lose?
Speaker 1: Out right? And I know the answer, Bob, I can
Speaker 1: guess your answer. Well, I went against Pittsburgh last week
Speaker 1: as a best bet on Dallas and that was an
Speaker 1: easy winner. And I've been on Cincinnati quite a few times.
Speaker 1: Is your first some winners? Um, I think Cincinnati has
Speaker 1: a decent chance to beat Pittsburgh. I think you're right,
Speaker 1: and I think Cincinnati would have been one of my
Speaker 1: best bets if we had a number here. Todd uh bad, biggest.
Speaker 1: I don't know who. How do you pick? Who were
Speaker 1: the choices against Packers and Steelers? I guess or those
Speaker 1: choices Baltimore. I guess I'll take the Bengals too. I
Speaker 1: don't think they're going to beat the Steelers, but I'll
Speaker 1: I guess I'll take them. That's what I would take, Mike,
Speaker 1: can we use this, uh the Tampa Bay game? No, Well,
Speaker 1: that's not one of the choices. It's too low. What
Speaker 1: you would say Tampa Bay though? Six though, Yeah, but
Speaker 1: there's not many choices here this week it was it
Speaker 1: was teetering. I would take if the Steelers are back up,
Speaker 1: the Steelers, I would do the same thing you would do.
Speaker 1: I would take Tampa Bay if that does include it.
Speaker 1: But I'll take this dealer. By the way, Dr Bob,
Speaker 1: I gotta tell you one other thing I found out
Speaker 1: about you in two thousand six. I remember where I was.
Speaker 1: I remember there was like a gambling board and this
Speaker 1: doctor Bob guy kept There was a whole controversy with
Speaker 1: this doctor Bob guy. Dr Bobby's this awesome guy, blah
Speaker 1: blah blah. And I remember thinking when I was sitting there,
Speaker 1: it would be so fun to go work with this guy.
Speaker 1: At the time, I was doing really well selling life insurance.
Speaker 1: And then I meet my brother from another mother, Gil Alexander,
Speaker 1: years later, and he tells me from another mother, what
Speaker 1: did you say, my brother from another mother? And I've
Speaker 1: told him that that's right, my brother. Now I didn't
Speaker 1: I didn't need to. I sorry. I just thought. I
Speaker 1: just thought it was so funny because me and Gil
Speaker 1: had such interesting, very similar experiences growing up. And then
Speaker 1: when I had heard of you, I was thinking, Wow,
Speaker 1: this Dr Bob would be a great guy to work with.
Speaker 1: And then I find out Gil ended up working with you.
Speaker 1: Was like it was almost like some alter ego kind
Speaker 1: of weird deal. I've you know that he actually had
Speaker 1: worked with you. I think I probably read the same
Speaker 1: thing you did about Bob at that time, and I
Speaker 1: knew from that Bob lived in San Francisco somewhere too,
Speaker 1: so I was always at that time, I was like,
Speaker 1: I wonder where he lives. It turns out he lived
Speaker 1: right over the hill, right over there. Hill. I'm sorry,
Speaker 1: Dr Bob go ahead, though, so I did. I only
Speaker 1: saw gil what I decided I wanted to see. That
Speaker 1: is a lot. God, what was the controversy you said?
Speaker 1: There was a big controversy over Dr Bob, this great guy,
Speaker 1: Dr Bob. So I was remember I remember reading some
Speaker 1: like Internet boards. This was back in two thousand and six,
Speaker 1: and there was this whole Doctor Bob was like killing
Speaker 1: it and releasing games on Thursdays in college and the
Speaker 1: lines would move, and then people were all screaming, oh,
Speaker 1: Dr Bob's not that great and blah blah blah. Meanwhile
Speaker 1: you were killing it and moving all the lines all
Speaker 1: over the place, and I just remember reading a whole.
Speaker 1: I don't even know what the controversy was. I just
Speaker 1: remember the first he was people thought it was like
Speaker 1: some Chinese syndicate or something like that moving all the lines.
Speaker 1: And um, at that time, the lines would move literally
Speaker 1: two and a half to three points every single game.
Speaker 1: And I had a year two thousand five it hit
Speaker 1: seventy percent in college football. Um, it was it was
Speaker 1: easy back then. That was the first few years that
Speaker 1: my model was. After I programmed the model that I
Speaker 1: was doing by hand for years. It was the first
Speaker 1: couple of years after I had a programmed and automated
Speaker 1: and it's just it was sucked it in and that thing.
Speaker 1: We're three years of sixty winners in college football at
Speaker 1: a three year span. That's how. That's how, that's how
Speaker 1: Physik won his college football competition. To use my picks, Bob,
Speaker 1: didn't you have to go to a time to you
Speaker 1: had to adjust your release on a time or didn't
Speaker 1: you have to like ad just because of that? Yeah,
Speaker 1: I used to. I used to send him out on
Speaker 1: email at ten o'clock on Thursdays every week, and some
Speaker 1: people get their emails at different times, and then they
Speaker 1: started playing. By the time I get my email, the
Speaker 1: lines have moved and I was like, oh jeez, I'm
Speaker 1: not gonna do here. So I had a tie. I
Speaker 1: had to set up a time or on my website
Speaker 1: or with a countdown and release one play at a
Speaker 1: time so people could count down to zero, they refreshed
Speaker 1: the page, they bet the game. Uh, then three minutes
Speaker 1: later the next the time or reset for three minutes
Speaker 1: and then the next game would be released. And it
Speaker 1: became a big headache. Honestly, I mean people think, oh,
Speaker 1: it's great, you move lines, and I'm like, no, it's
Speaker 1: a pain in the ass because I have to It's
Speaker 1: a constraint that I have to deal with, Like I
Speaker 1: have to have set up, you know, specific times to
Speaker 1: release games so my clients are ready for it, and
Speaker 1: or I have to text five minutes in advance at
Speaker 1: a place coming. I can't just release the play whenever
Speaker 1: I want, which is a constraint that I have to
Speaker 1: deal with because of it. So it's not it's more
Speaker 1: of a purse and a blessing. I'll tell you that.
Speaker 1: By the way, it just reminded me of Arizona State
Speaker 1: USC when he was talking about those college football games,
Speaker 1: because back in two thousands six, I had a crazy
Speaker 1: situation with them, and then of course at them Kipper
Speaker 1: massacre and then I don't know if you guys were
Speaker 1: watching USC Arizona State this week, but I ended up
Speaker 1: losing that one in another ridiculous fashion. Did you guys
Speaker 1: see what happened at the end of that game, how
Speaker 1: Herman Edwards blew the game? It was unbelievable. It's there's
Speaker 1: something about that because when you the first down and
Speaker 1: sit on it. Yeah, and then of course they give
Speaker 1: up the The onside kick is just like, It's just incredible.
Speaker 1: Herm Edwards is another guy. He plays to lose the game,
Speaker 1: like Anthony, and he's like Anthony Lynn Jr. Does recruit
Speaker 1: well and he is a solid coach, not a great
Speaker 1: game manager. You're right, but I'd rather have him than
Speaker 1: a lot of guys who manage games better but can't
Speaker 1: recruit as well. Final question, Guys, we play in a
Speaker 1: bizarro world. We bet in a bizarro world where we're
Speaker 1: forced to bet a side on every single game, but
Speaker 1: we're allowed one free pass. Again, fourteen games in the NFL,
Speaker 1: including tonight's you got a bet thirteen of them. What's
Speaker 1: the game you want no part of? Now? There is
Speaker 1: no line currently Cincinnati Pittsburgh for why in Detroit? And
Speaker 1: I'm not sure if Baltimore is back on the board either.
Speaker 1: Baltimore had a COVID positive tonight to um. But if
Speaker 1: you could pass on one game on the side, Bob,
Speaker 1: what's the game you want no part of? Buffalo Arizona?
Speaker 1: I just these teams are pretty evenly mashed. My model
Speaker 1: favors Arizona by one point nine of spreads to both
Speaker 1: teams are in like negative situations let down situations. Um, yeah,
Speaker 1: I don't want any part of that game. I think
Speaker 1: it's complete toss up. You know that Bob and I
Speaker 1: hold the consecutive days record of eating Thai food in
Speaker 1: San Francisco. Oh I wish that was the case. We
Speaker 1: have that record, Todd, what do you want no part
Speaker 1: of I don't want any part of Seattle l A Rams.
Speaker 1: I cannot understand who the l A Rams are except
Speaker 1: for the fact they have a quarterback who's vastly overpaid.
Speaker 1: Who knows what's going to show up this week? Seattle
Speaker 1: has no defense, granted, but I just I don't know
Speaker 1: what you with the Rams. Every week it's something different.
Speaker 1: So I'm off that game. Yeah, I don't. I don't
Speaker 1: hate that pick. I agree with Todd. Yeah, the Rams
Speaker 1: their team. You only can end game. You have to
Speaker 1: watch them play the first quarter and decide what what
Speaker 1: goffs mood is going to be and how his body
Speaker 1: languages and if he's looking down the field or if
Speaker 1: he's got his eyes glued to the ground. So I
Speaker 1: want no part of it. When is Carroll ever going
Speaker 1: to get his feet held to the fire for how
Speaker 1: bad this defense? He's a defensive coach. I talked to
Speaker 1: Lombardi about that yesterday, because he's a Carol guy. He like,
Speaker 1: he thinks Carrol's one of the all time greats. Yeah,
Speaker 1: he's like, when he gets credit for Legion of Boom,
Speaker 1: why doesn't he not get credit for this? And I
Speaker 1: don't remember the answer. I don't I don't remember the answer.
Speaker 1: I was off to the next one he said. He said,
Speaker 1: Carol needs to get more involved in the defense because
Speaker 1: he can point to his trophy and the players will
Speaker 1: buy in where Nagy can't. The question was about Naggie
Speaker 1: Carroll and right was he also though when he got
Speaker 1: when he had guys like Chancellor and all those guys
Speaker 1: in the Legion of Boom, was he so close to
Speaker 1: his college years that he knew those guys were gems
Speaker 1: and so it was like a Jimmy Johnson thing where
Speaker 1: he knew the better players. And then it's just sort
Speaker 1: of this one stretch of very interesting point. I don't know.
Speaker 1: I don't know. Is Philip Rivers a Hall of Famer
Speaker 1: according to you guys this question? What about Warren Mode
Speaker 1: I would say I would say Horror Moon, yes, Philip Rivers, No,
Speaker 1: Dr Bob, I love this. Dr Bob go, Dr Bob.
Speaker 1: Philip Rivers that background good not great quarterbacks in the
Speaker 1: Hall of Fame because they played for seventeen or eighteen years. Yeah,
Speaker 1: this isn't Craig Bigio in baseball. Manning should not get
Speaker 1: in either for winning two games. Other than that he
Speaker 1: was mediocre his entire career. He's like the definition of
Speaker 1: MEDIOCRELI Manning. People like, oh, he's a sure fire Hall
Speaker 1: of Famer. I'm like, hall of famer? Are we talking
Speaker 1: about the Hall of Fame for people to throw interceptions?
Speaker 1: I mean, what are we talking about? Well, he's won
Speaker 1: one more Super Bowl than tread Dilfer, one more Super
Speaker 1: Bowl than Mark Ripping, and no one's talking about them
Speaker 1: in the Hall of Fame. So like, why would he
Speaker 1: like just be on that he wasn't He wasn't even
Speaker 1: a very good quarterback, that's right, But he's right down
Speaker 1: the middle is wins and losses. By the way, my
Speaker 1: pick if anyone cares with Seattle in the rams. But
Speaker 1: we always agree on that, but we don't always have
Speaker 1: the same game. Um, I think Philip Rivers is not
Speaker 1: like I don't think you can apply the same rules
Speaker 1: to to football that you can in baseball. Right, So
Speaker 1: Craig Bigio gets in the Hall of Fame because he's
Speaker 1: just played long enough where he accumulates counting stats and
Speaker 1: then people are like, oh, well he had that many hits,
Speaker 1: so you're in. I don't think you can do that
Speaker 1: in football. So I would say no, But there's a
Speaker 1: there's a lot of people think, yes, baseball is the
Speaker 1: numbers game. Is the Hall of Fame? The numbers game?
Speaker 1: It's the numbers game. How is Dan Hampton in the
Speaker 1: Hall of Fame? So many guys? How's Dan his pants
Speaker 1: higher than any other player in the Nashual Football League history?
Speaker 1: All right, Dr Bob, do you allies baseball as well? No?
Speaker 1: I do not. That was effort is I've left that
Speaker 1: to other people over the years. I have am I
Speaker 1: might dig into it again, but if I do, I
Speaker 1: i'd probably consult some people who are handicapped before I
Speaker 1: start programming it. So no, but I don't see any
Speaker 1: reason to I didn't. I did baseball for Bob. Some
Speaker 1: years were wildly awesome and some some years were wildly terrible.
Speaker 1: But by the end of the run, we had this
Speaker 1: thing where it's like, well, no, you just have to
Speaker 1: you have to give the picks that the day before, well,
Speaker 1: the market had evolved. You can't. You couldn't do that anymore.
Speaker 1: There was no way. And you're still getting judged for
Speaker 1: your record from the night before. It's like, come on,
Speaker 1: I can't do that today. It's impossible. You don't even
Speaker 1: know what the openers and that you have no idea
Speaker 1: what you can't do it? Yeah, do you bet in game? No? I? Um, well,
Speaker 1: on Saturday's is my only day off. I don't do that.
Speaker 1: And on Sundays I'm working on the next week's college
Speaker 1: football and not really paying attention to what's going on
Speaker 1: in the games, except you know, the end of the games.
Speaker 1: I tune into the to the red Zone channel. That's
Speaker 1: That's about it. But I I've had too much work
Speaker 1: on Sunday's working on college football for the next week.
Speaker 1: So are you doing college basketball this year? Bob? Yeah,
Speaker 1: uh yeah, yeah, I'm spending gonna spend less time on
Speaker 1: it because I put everything. There's a new model that
Speaker 1: we have that I work have a data base. Math
Speaker 1: guy who's a is a young genius, and I've been
Speaker 1: working with him. We worked on the NFL model that
Speaker 1: we're currently using together. And UM, he does all the
Speaker 1: nitty gritty, behind the scenes player you know, player work
Speaker 1: on that, which is very helpful. And I worked on
Speaker 1: college football mostly um and we worked on a college
Speaker 1: basketball model, which mostly was was his doing. I injected
Speaker 1: the kind of things that I thought we should look at,
Speaker 1: and and we we have a model that we think
Speaker 1: it's really really good with really great priors, which is
Speaker 1: the key to a good a good college basketball model.
Speaker 1: We we we used two thousand four to two thousand
Speaker 1: fifteen data and built the model as if we were
Speaker 1: entering the two thousand sixteen season. Then we ran it
Speaker 1: on the next four years and it tested out over
Speaker 1: fift on games, which was much much better than we expected.
Speaker 1: We were expecting fifty four fifty four and a half percent.
Speaker 1: And this is without adjusting for players or anything. It
Speaker 1: was just here's what the models should be. When we
Speaker 1: ran it for the next four years, and it was
Speaker 1: it was yeah, and we're really and we're gonna release
Speaker 1: games in the morning, which I've done the last few
Speaker 1: years with success, is releasing college basketball games at six
Speaker 1: thirty in the morning, specific time before before the limits
Speaker 1: go up too much where the syndicates hit him. Um,
Speaker 1: So yeah, it's it tested way better than we thought.
Speaker 1: So I'm excited about it. So I will be working
Speaker 1: on it, but not doing all nighters three or four
Speaker 1: times a week because now a lot of things automated.
Speaker 1: So I'm really excited about it. That's become a big
Speaker 1: deal in college basketball, and Boston were rant on my
Speaker 1: show about that all the time. He's like, He's like,
Speaker 1: you can't syndic kates are coming in and just grabbing
Speaker 1: at all. It's a big source of big thorn in
Speaker 1: his side. He likes to say there's two sides to
Speaker 1: every story, but that was his opinion on that. So
Speaker 1: I know that's a big deal. UMM. In the college basketball,
Speaker 1: do you ever see can I ask one of the
Speaker 1: quick questions go ahead in the in the college basketball,
Speaker 1: do you ever see situations like with Gonzaga last year
Speaker 1: where they just couldn't make the line high enough because
Speaker 1: in a sense, they're breaking the numerical um expectations because
Speaker 1: of the fact that they play so different, like they
Speaker 1: could make loyal a merrymount even run, you know what
Speaker 1: I mean. Do you see that kind of thing where
Speaker 1: it like breaks the model with certain teams, Um, I
Speaker 1: did pretty well. Well, here's the thing with Gonzaga. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I get what you're saying, because you're gonna most models
Speaker 1: will regress their performance down a little bit. But I
Speaker 1: also no, yep, So for just for the model's sake,
Speaker 1: I don't think I would have been on Gonzaga that often.
Speaker 1: But I also did not go against them because I know,
Speaker 1: as a favorite of twenty five or more, whatever the
Speaker 1: number is for them, they cover the spread seventy or
Speaker 1: seven the time generally, so as big fairs usually crush.
Speaker 1: So even so, if my math was against them, or
Speaker 1: my model was against Gonzaga as a big fair, I
Speaker 1: just passed on. But I was talking about the totals actually,
Speaker 1: because the totals last year. I I don't really get
Speaker 1: into totals too much. We're going to you know that
Speaker 1: this model was built, Yeah, size and totals. It projects
Speaker 1: efficiencies offensive and defensive going forward. But we didn't back
Speaker 1: tested on totals because I didn't have data going back
Speaker 1: that far. So we're gonna do it. So I didn't
Speaker 1: really do totals last year either for that, you know,
Speaker 1: for the same kind of reason, because Gonzaga last year.
Speaker 1: It was ridiculous. It was like Seattle this year in
Speaker 1: football or Tampa Bay last year, and in football it
Speaker 1: was just it didn't matter what they made the number
Speaker 1: because Gonzaga was going to break the expectation. Right, So
Speaker 1: they're if they're total eight points the game odds makers
Speaker 1: they were like, all right, one sixty five or one
Speaker 1: seventy one, seventy five one, and it's just they're still
Speaker 1: gonna be one ninety or one eight or whatever it is. Yeah, anyways, Yeah,
Speaker 1: that's super interesting stuff. But sorry, Gil you always very interesting. Um,
Speaker 1: always interesting. I could have talked to Bob for hours
Speaker 1: about it, could talk for more, but we gotta run
Speaker 1: NFL Week number ten. Thank you, Bob, appreciate it. Good
Speaker 1: to see your face, man, Good to see you guys.
Speaker 1: And good luck this weekend, yes sir, good luck to
Speaker 1: everybody a week ten picks in the NFL Fade or follow.
Speaker 1: We got a lot of oppos today