WEBVTT - Beating The Book: 2020 NFL MegaPod Week 10 Preview 0:00:03.440 --> 0:00:13.920 Check it down, man, No down many check it down now. 0:00:14.440 --> 0:00:18.000 Thursday morning, November twelve, it's the Beating the Book podcast 0:00:18.320 --> 0:00:23.760 Megapod for week number ten Wow Week ten National Football League. 0:00:24.160 --> 0:00:26.319 It's Gill Alexander, thanks for joining us, said of course 0:00:26.360 --> 0:00:30.800 alongside Todd wished nevuh no longer from his mother's cork attic. 0:00:30.880 --> 0:00:33.760 What room is that, Todd, it's the same room. It's 0:00:33.800 --> 0:00:36.320 just I did a background to trick you today. See 0:00:36.320 --> 0:00:37.519 he doesn't want he doesn't want me to say the 0:00:37.520 --> 0:00:40.839 cork Attic park. And of course, uh the conciliary to 0:00:40.960 --> 0:00:43.639 Derrick Stephens, the VP of Operations, one of the vps 0:00:44.159 --> 0:00:47.960 here at the Circus Sports, the Great Mike Palm. Hello Michael, 0:00:48.120 --> 0:00:50.640 the morning Gil. You know today is a significant day 0:00:50.640 --> 0:00:54.160 for the Megapod. People ask me what is humanity all about? 0:00:54.160 --> 0:00:56.360 What is this life all about? What's the theme of it? 0:00:56.400 --> 0:01:01.080 And I always tell them it's about sin and redemption. Well, today, 0:01:01.360 --> 0:01:04.200 the other member of our little mini sen Hedron, we'll 0:01:04.200 --> 0:01:06.800 have a chance to maybe get some redemption or at 0:01:06.880 --> 0:01:11.160 least apologize. Four. Well, I don't want to give away 0:01:11.160 --> 0:01:15.360 who the guest is. Oh, that's right, I forgot. You're 0:01:15.360 --> 0:01:19.360 referring to the incident. It's Todd Seminel moment on the megapod. 0:01:19.440 --> 0:01:21.520 So far, ladies and gentlemen back on the show for 0:01:21.560 --> 0:01:23.120 the first time. I hadn't I hadn't had him on 0:01:23.160 --> 0:01:24.800 a numbers game in a while too. And it's all 0:01:24.880 --> 0:01:28.000 my mistake. It's my old friend Dr Bob stole from 0:01:28.080 --> 0:01:31.240 Dr Bob Sports at d r Bob Sports on Twitter. Bob, 0:01:31.480 --> 0:01:33.319 how are you doing for the second time today? Man 0:01:34.760 --> 0:01:37.880 entire of talking to you, Gil he no, do you 0:01:37.920 --> 0:01:40.160 are you aware of the incident we're referring to from 0:01:40.240 --> 0:01:44.039 last year? I have no idea. Well, it's a matter 0:01:44.120 --> 0:01:48.600 if much debate, wasn't it Mikey trying to remember? Yeah, 0:01:48.800 --> 0:01:51.720 some people thought, uh, someone here was being impolite to 0:01:51.760 --> 0:01:55.400 you and you you immediately said he wasn't being polite. Yeah, 0:01:55.800 --> 0:01:59.160 you were just being nice. It was what we call propaganda. 0:01:59.320 --> 0:02:01.800 My good friend Mikey, being from Iowa, is someone who 0:02:01.800 --> 0:02:05.000 likes to, you know, indulge in a little propaganda and 0:02:05.080 --> 0:02:07.760 get his sick of fans to go along with him. 0:02:07.840 --> 0:02:14.240 So we created an entire narrative that was completely completely nonsense, 0:02:14.639 --> 0:02:18.320 and Dr Bob put a stop to the nonsense, because 0:02:18.400 --> 0:02:21.160 Dr Bob is a man of substance, not like certain 0:02:21.200 --> 0:02:25.280 people who eat popcorn and drink wine at the south Point. Enough, 0:02:25.560 --> 0:02:28.359 there it is. I don't say a word and he 0:02:28.400 --> 0:02:31.280 comes right after. Um. Let me just can I say this? 0:02:31.280 --> 0:02:33.480 Because we're the Master's first round is going on as 0:02:33.480 --> 0:02:36.360 we're recording this, Eldrick Tiger Woods is two shots back. 0:02:36.560 --> 0:02:39.960 If Tiger Woods wins circu closes on Monday, it's over 0:02:40.120 --> 0:02:43.640 fifty three to while we could kill for the Tiger 0:02:43.680 --> 0:02:50.000 Blue Jay afternoon mattenee. We got, we got, we got, 0:02:50.280 --> 0:02:52.680 we got, we got the os at the Rangers and 0:02:52.720 --> 0:02:56.280 then we got three thousand people coming for it. And 0:02:56.320 --> 0:02:58.840 Bryson to Shambo, by the way, is even par through 0:02:58.919 --> 0:03:02.280 ten and he's been in the Woods the entire round. 0:03:02.720 --> 0:03:05.120 So the fact that he's even and only five shots 0:03:05.120 --> 0:03:06.959 back to me is still also the story of the round. 0:03:06.960 --> 0:03:10.280 But anyway, football week number ten, Mike, Before we get 0:03:10.320 --> 0:03:13.080 to our format with the three best bets, the teasers, 0:03:13.320 --> 0:03:17.959 the survivor and all that, michigas um three ten left 0:03:17.960 --> 0:03:23.840 and survivor. The inaugural survivor contested circuits started with somehow 0:03:24.480 --> 0:03:28.440 three survived This week. I was on the Steelers. That 0:03:28.600 --> 0:03:30.920 was just by the skin of my teeth that everybody 0:03:30.919 --> 0:03:33.000 else who had the Steelers. And then, oh my god, 0:03:33.320 --> 0:03:39.600 the Patriots very resilient entrance. It's incredible. You know, if 0:03:39.640 --> 0:03:41.640 Anthony Lynn could coach it, all would probably be over 0:03:41.640 --> 0:03:43.680 at this point. He had a chance to knock out 0:03:43.720 --> 0:03:45.240 the Chiefs in week two, he had a chance to 0:03:45.280 --> 0:03:48.280 knock out the Buccaneers. People that have a chance to 0:03:48.360 --> 0:03:50.200 knock out the Saints. I mean all those games that 0:03:50.240 --> 0:03:52.520 he blew those big leads in. But so we set 0:03:52.560 --> 0:03:54.920 with three ten. We still had another week where an 0:03:55.000 --> 0:03:58.240 entry wasn't placed. So all nine weeks so far, somebody 0:03:58.240 --> 0:04:00.200 hasn't turned in. How about they're the guy that went 0:04:00.280 --> 0:04:03.040 eight no, and you're one of the three thirty or 0:04:03.040 --> 0:04:05.440 whatever left and you don't put the enter. I s incredible. 0:04:05.560 --> 0:04:09.160 But here's the question. This week, two seventy of the 0:04:09.240 --> 0:04:11.920 three ten have green Bay left. How many people will 0:04:12.000 --> 0:04:13.600 choose green Bay this week? I asked that on a 0:04:13.680 --> 0:04:18.719 numbers game this morning and Jason said two thirds. And 0:04:18.760 --> 0:04:20.839 I said, if it's two thirds, it's an upset. I 0:04:20.839 --> 0:04:24.480 think it's more than that. Yeah, really, well, how many 0:04:24.480 --> 0:04:26.880 people know how to play game? Theory or how many 0:04:26.920 --> 0:04:29.200 people take the game literally and just want to survive. 0:04:30.960 --> 0:04:32.280 And that's not to say I'm not going to play 0:04:32.360 --> 0:04:34.119 green Bay, because I might end up with green Bay. 0:04:34.200 --> 0:04:36.040 So maybe I'm playing it wrong too. But if you're 0:04:36.040 --> 0:04:38.120 playing it right, and if you're playing it to win, 0:04:38.480 --> 0:04:41.080 you probably don't take green Bay. You take somebody else 0:04:41.279 --> 0:04:45.240 and hope for a calamity. It's an interesting week because 0:04:45.240 --> 0:04:48.520 you're just you're just ten days away from Thanksgiving, which 0:04:48.560 --> 0:04:53.800 will really be the the seminal moment of So that's 0:04:53.800 --> 0:04:56.000 the thing about Circuit Survivor. Last thing on this Thanksgiving 0:04:56.040 --> 0:04:57.880 is the cork. It's the eighteenth week. It's a week 0:04:57.920 --> 0:04:59.760 on an in and of itself, and it's Detroit, Houston, 0:04:59.760 --> 0:05:03.400 It's Washington, Dallas, it's Pittsburgh, Baltimore. Man, it's a prayer 0:05:03.440 --> 0:05:06.480 for everybody. A lot of people have already used Pittsburgh 0:05:06.480 --> 0:05:10.080 and Baltimore. Have you considered that Pittsburgh Of those other 0:05:10.160 --> 0:05:13.160 four teams, who would you select? There's no obvious choice 0:05:13.240 --> 0:05:16.080 unless there's some injury news or COVID news or something 0:05:16.120 --> 0:05:18.240 comes out. Who's gonna play quarterback for either Dallas or 0:05:18.279 --> 0:05:21.040 washing No idea, And can you trust Detroit or Houston. 0:05:21.960 --> 0:05:24.040 Can you Yeah, it's it's a prayer that day. I 0:05:24.080 --> 0:05:26.280 do want to mention this, yes, because this was brought 0:05:26.360 --> 0:05:28.640 up on one of the other shows on the Visa 0:05:28.720 --> 0:05:36.000 Network for Survivor Thanksgiving, there's there's one before you. What 0:05:36.160 --> 0:05:37.840 is the deadline to get to pick in? We all 0:05:37.839 --> 0:05:39.839 know what's Saturday. I was gonna ask you this. It's 0:05:40.440 --> 0:05:43.280 Wednesday night at ten pm Pacific, So I want all 0:05:43.279 --> 0:05:44.920 of our listeners out there to know that that are 0:05:44.920 --> 0:05:48.839 still in Pacific. So one am Eastern Thursday morning. Okay, 0:05:49.080 --> 0:05:51.440 that's that's a good question. That's a good answer to know. Alright, 0:05:51.680 --> 0:05:54.520 let's start with our best bets for a week number 0:05:54.560 --> 0:05:57.039 ten in the NFL BOB we usually start with a 0:05:57.080 --> 0:05:59.680 Thursday night game. Actually, that's the way this works. Is 0:05:59.760 --> 0:06:02.000 your do do you have any thoughts on Thursday night? 0:06:02.120 --> 0:06:03.839 And if you do, is it one of your three 0:06:03.839 --> 0:06:07.280 best bet? Sir? I do? And it is all right? 0:06:07.520 --> 0:06:12.080 What is it? Fire away? All right? I like Indianapolis. 0:06:12.200 --> 0:06:14.640 I released them to my clients earlier in the week 0:06:14.680 --> 0:06:16.240 when it was plus one and a half. It's now 0:06:16.279 --> 0:06:21.040 minus one. I still like Indianapolis. Um Tennessee, my models 0:06:21.040 --> 0:06:23.839 had them overrated most of the season. The metrics aren't 0:06:23.839 --> 0:06:27.400 particularly good. They've played the second third easiest schedule in 0:06:27.440 --> 0:06:30.919 the league. They run the ball far too much to 0:06:31.000 --> 0:06:34.880 be an efficient offense, and that works sometimes because Derrick 0:06:34.920 --> 0:06:37.080 Henry can break off some big runs. And if you 0:06:37.120 --> 0:06:41.320 have explosive running plays, that's that's that's pretty good from 0:06:41.360 --> 0:06:44.640 an analytics standpoint. But if you do not have explosive 0:06:44.680 --> 0:06:46.760 running plays, we were wasting your time running the ball 0:06:46.760 --> 0:06:49.000 in the NFL, and the Colts do not give up 0:06:49.040 --> 0:06:51.719 explosive running plays. So I think it's a good matchup 0:06:51.800 --> 0:06:55.560 for the Colts in that sense. Also, Dorry Jackson is 0:06:55.600 --> 0:06:58.040 not playing. He was activated, but he is not playing 0:06:58.080 --> 0:07:01.040 for the Titans. Um so the Colts should That should 0:07:01.040 --> 0:07:04.560 help the Colts out there. Darius Leonard is playing for 0:07:04.640 --> 0:07:06.800 the Colts. He's missed two and a half games so far. 0:07:07.279 --> 0:07:09.440 He practiced this week and he's ready to go. Uh. 0:07:09.480 --> 0:07:12.480 They're They're top five defense, even though he's missed two 0:07:12.520 --> 0:07:14.200 and a half games. He's one of their key players. 0:07:14.960 --> 0:07:17.480 So I like the I just like the matchup here. Also, 0:07:18.560 --> 0:07:20.840 Hannahill might struggle. They target tight ends a lot. The 0:07:20.840 --> 0:07:24.880 Titans do second most in the league, and the Colts 0:07:24.960 --> 0:07:27.960 only about five point two yards per target to tight ends. 0:07:28.040 --> 0:07:31.120 In the meantime, Xavier Rose, one of the top corners 0:07:31.120 --> 0:07:34.040 in the league in shadow A. J. Brown, And I 0:07:34.040 --> 0:07:37.800 think the other Colts defensive backs can handle the rest 0:07:37.800 --> 0:07:40.680 of the Titans receiver. So I like the matchup, and uh, 0:07:40.880 --> 0:07:44.119 my math model favors favors the Colts here and Bob, 0:07:44.120 --> 0:07:45.920 I buried the headline because I did it on the 0:07:46.000 --> 0:07:47.600 radio side this morning, so I forgot to do it 0:07:47.600 --> 0:07:50.640 again here. Your record this year thus far in the 0:07:50.800 --> 0:07:59.320 NFL against the spread is uh thirty in is that right? 0:07:59.440 --> 0:08:01.480 Thirty and third? He is fourteen and one the last 0:08:02.200 --> 0:08:06.200 three weeks, and I was sixteen and twelve, thirty and thirteen, 0:08:06.600 --> 0:08:10.960 thirty and thirteen. It ain't bethany Poris, but it's pretty 0:08:11.000 --> 0:08:14.600 damn good. Thirty and thirteen is Bob said on on 0:08:15.240 --> 0:08:18.240 the numbers game on Visa this morning. The sort of 0:08:18.240 --> 0:08:21.520 coin flip games have by and large gone your way, 0:08:21.560 --> 0:08:23.640 and that's how you get to thirty and thirteen. You're good, 0:08:23.960 --> 0:08:27.000 but you're also getting good fortune. Two right, the last 0:08:27.000 --> 0:08:28.840 two weeks has been all blowouts. You've been getting the 0:08:28.840 --> 0:08:31.480 emails the last two weeks. We're nine and one, and 0:08:31.520 --> 0:08:34.920 it's all all nine wins were easy. The week before that, 0:08:35.000 --> 0:08:36.920 I was four and o or five and oh at 0:08:36.920 --> 0:08:40.200 four O five and oh um, and I think three 0:08:40.200 --> 0:08:42.400 of those were nail biers, you know, and I don't 0:08:42.440 --> 0:08:45.120 want all three of them. In general, I've been winning 0:08:45.120 --> 0:08:47.199 more close games than losing in the NFL. But I'd 0:08:47.240 --> 0:08:50.640 still be hitting, you know, sixty three sixty four percent 0:08:50.679 --> 0:08:52.520 if i'd split the toss up games. It's just been 0:08:52.559 --> 0:08:54.480 a good year for the model. And I think we've 0:08:54.480 --> 0:08:58.400 talked about it this morning. Um, you know, I think, 0:08:58.600 --> 0:09:00.920 you know, adjusting for for all your injuries other than 0:09:00.960 --> 0:09:03.559 just quarterbacks, mostly the market just to just for quarterbacks 0:09:03.559 --> 0:09:05.719 and maybe a half point for McCaffrey or in the 0:09:05.800 --> 0:09:08.960 leite wide receiver, but we just for every you know everything, 0:09:09.280 --> 0:09:13.520 offensive lineman, edge rushers, cornerbacks. I mean, we had just 0:09:13.720 --> 0:09:16.240 for every position, and I think that really gives it 0:09:16.280 --> 0:09:19.160 gives us an edge. Yeah. I brought that up this 0:09:19.200 --> 0:09:21.480 morning of all the things that I learned from you 0:09:21.520 --> 0:09:23.080 over the years, Bob. And by the way, if I 0:09:23.120 --> 0:09:25.320 may just say to you on this podcast, there was 0:09:25.440 --> 0:09:29.079 no better person to work with to have a school 0:09:29.120 --> 0:09:31.520 of handicapping than it was to work with you, and 0:09:31.600 --> 0:09:34.480 that was I always thought that was your forte was 0:09:34.520 --> 0:09:36.760 the ability, and this was more in a basketball contest 0:09:37.080 --> 0:09:40.720 than football, to to properly assess the value of players 0:09:40.720 --> 0:09:42.439 and in players out. I always thought that was your 0:09:42.440 --> 0:09:44.320 best edge and stuff, and so that that's why I 0:09:44.320 --> 0:09:47.760 asked that this morning. And uh, at least part of 0:09:47.800 --> 0:09:49.800 your success this year based on that. That does not 0:09:49.880 --> 0:09:53.200 surprise at all. Mikey, your first play no Thursday night, 0:09:53.200 --> 0:09:55.760 Do you have any thoughts? My best bet is your 0:09:55.800 --> 0:09:59.440 third best bet the under tonight under forty eight in 0:09:59.480 --> 0:10:04.480 this game, and I agree so well, that's even better. 0:10:05.440 --> 0:10:08.440 Thank you for being a man of such integrity. Ton 0:10:09.440 --> 0:10:12.160 I agree with I agree with Bob's analysis and that 0:10:12.360 --> 0:10:14.839 I think Tennessee is gonna have a hard time running 0:10:14.880 --> 0:10:18.760 the football. And if Tennessee cannot run the football, Tannehill 0:10:18.840 --> 0:10:21.960 is much less effective as a strictly dropped back passer. 0:10:22.040 --> 0:10:24.360 I mean, his success is off the play action based 0:10:24.360 --> 0:10:28.400 on Derrick's Henry's ability to run the football. UM at 0:10:28.400 --> 0:10:32.120 this stage in his career. UM, I'm not the biggest 0:10:32.120 --> 0:10:36.000 Philip Rivers fan, but I'm just I'm just not at 0:10:36.120 --> 0:10:38.839 the light. But the key to defending Rivers really to 0:10:38.880 --> 0:10:41.480 get him off his spot and to make him move around. 0:10:41.520 --> 0:10:43.760 Tennessee hasn't had much of a pass rush. I think 0:10:43.840 --> 0:10:46.160 Rivers will be able to control the ball and control 0:10:46.240 --> 0:10:48.960 the clock tonight. And I have a hard time seeing 0:10:49.000 --> 0:10:51.160 this game getting to forty nine or fifty. I think 0:10:51.200 --> 0:10:53.520 I think this I like Bob's playing there. I think 0:10:53.559 --> 0:10:56.240 this is a I think this is seventeen type of 0:10:56.240 --> 0:10:58.240 a game, and I would lean Colts, but I like 0:10:58.280 --> 0:11:00.000 the under Moore and so that'll be my third best 0:11:00.080 --> 0:11:02.760 bet and a lot of Derek. Maybe the maybe the 0:11:02.800 --> 0:11:05.880 team total Tennessee team total under then would be our 0:11:06.440 --> 0:11:11.240 our combined play. Yeah, absolutely makes sense. Yeah, Todd, any 0:11:11.280 --> 0:11:13.880 thoughts on Thursday night? Two things? First of all, did 0:11:13.880 --> 0:11:15.680 you want me to update the records or no? Yeah, 0:11:15.720 --> 0:11:17.720 please update the records. I'm so sorry. It's like I've 0:11:17.760 --> 0:11:22.000 never been here before. Okay, the records are really improving. 0:11:22.040 --> 0:11:24.800 Gills up to fourteen twelve and one after another nice week. 0:11:25.120 --> 0:11:28.240 Mikey up to fifteen eleven and one after another nice week, 0:11:28.480 --> 0:11:29.880 And I had a pretty good week. Two and I'm 0:11:29.920 --> 0:11:32.839 up to thirteen and fourteen. Gil and Mikey lost both 0:11:32.880 --> 0:11:35.240 their teasers to fall in six and three on teasers. 0:11:35.280 --> 0:11:37.480 I want my teaser to go to seven and two 0:11:37.520 --> 0:11:43.040 on teasers. So that's your little update on that teasers. Now, 0:11:43.320 --> 0:11:46.360 as far as Thursday Night goes, I would like to 0:11:46.400 --> 0:11:48.679 go with Bob two, but I'm not going to. The 0:11:48.720 --> 0:11:51.000 reason I'm not going to is not because I disagree 0:11:51.040 --> 0:11:52.959 with anything Bob says. I agree with it. I would 0:11:52.960 --> 0:11:54.880 love to bet on Indie tonight. I think it's the 0:11:54.920 --> 0:11:57.319 correct side. I won't do it because I started. I 0:11:57.360 --> 0:11:59.839 went to a little meeting the other day called f 0:12:00.320 --> 0:12:04.200 p r A. It's called philip Rivers Anonymous. I will 0:12:04.240 --> 0:12:07.880 not bet on philip Rivers anymore p r A philip 0:12:07.960 --> 0:12:14.320 Rivers Anonymous, and I messed up the p r A 0:12:14.400 --> 0:12:18.760 p r A, and it means you we've all decided 0:12:18.920 --> 0:12:22.200 as a group not to bet on Philip Rivers anymore 0:12:22.320 --> 0:12:26.360 due to the lack of um your soul to be 0:12:26.400 --> 0:12:29.559 able to keep coming through when he screws you late. Now, 0:12:29.600 --> 0:12:32.560 if I wasn't in that meeting of philip Rivers Anonymous, 0:12:32.600 --> 0:12:36.400 I would like Indie because I think that um colts 0:12:36.440 --> 0:12:39.000 have trouble when Indie get when they get a big 0:12:39.000 --> 0:12:41.199 pass rush against the me and you both had Baltimore 0:12:41.280 --> 0:12:44.000 last week, Gil and I thought we were in trouble early, 0:12:44.760 --> 0:12:47.000 and then of course the fumble recovery for the touchdown 0:12:47.000 --> 0:12:49.160 turned the tables on the whole game. But I think 0:12:49.240 --> 0:12:52.840 it really shows that if you if Indy has a 0:12:52.880 --> 0:12:55.200 game where Philip Rivers is going to be pressured, they 0:12:55.240 --> 0:12:57.560 have no chance because obviously he can't move, But if 0:12:57.600 --> 0:12:59.640 they have a situation where he can, you know, just 0:12:59.679 --> 0:13:02.800 sit and pick people apart, like tonight, Tennessee is not 0:13:02.880 --> 0:13:05.680 very good defensively. You know, I like Indie two, but 0:13:05.800 --> 0:13:08.600 like I said, I won't bet on Philip Rivers. Todd, 0:13:08.679 --> 0:13:11.719 you you summed up my thoughts on this game perfectly, 0:13:11.840 --> 0:13:13.719 because if I had not attended that meeting, I don't 0:13:13.720 --> 0:13:15.160 know if you saw me in the back of the class. 0:13:15.160 --> 0:13:16.760 I don't like to show myself. I was in the back. 0:13:17.080 --> 0:13:19.360 But well, it's anonymous, we're really not supposed to be 0:13:19.360 --> 0:13:23.640 talking about. Yeah. I would probably go to the Indianapolis 0:13:23.679 --> 0:13:25.400 side as well. Uh and but let me just talk 0:13:25.400 --> 0:13:28.520 about that Baltimore Indianapolis game for a second. We've talked 0:13:28.520 --> 0:13:30.320 about this forever on a Numbers game I know you 0:13:30.320 --> 0:13:32.200 and I did on Wish I have Wednesdays last year. 0:13:32.920 --> 0:13:35.319 Key fourth in one situation for the Colts in that 0:13:35.440 --> 0:13:38.719 game last week against Baltimore, They're down twenty one to ten. 0:13:39.040 --> 0:13:42.120 There's five thirty four left in the game. It's fourth 0:13:42.120 --> 0:13:44.720 and one. At the Baltimore six team kick a field goal, 0:13:44.760 --> 0:13:46.320 they go down eight. Okay, they decided to go for 0:13:46.600 --> 0:13:49.240 fourth and one. What do we know about Philip Rivers teams? 0:13:49.520 --> 0:13:53.680 He does not sneak. He doesn't sneak. The defense never 0:13:53.720 --> 0:13:58.160 has to prepare for it. Pass play never has a chance. Typical. 0:13:58.200 --> 0:14:02.400 Philip Rivers typical. And that's such a key point in 0:14:02.520 --> 0:14:05.920 games where the defense doesn't have it's a competitive advantage 0:14:05.920 --> 0:14:08.040 for them. I really believe that you need is bruder 0:14:08.280 --> 0:14:11.439 z Appruter film to find Philip Rivers sneaks. So I 0:14:11.480 --> 0:14:15.280 can't play this game. Rivers has a better spread record 0:14:15.280 --> 0:14:20.200 than Tannehill this year. The same where's that Mikey best bet? Bob? 0:14:20.320 --> 0:14:23.160 That was your number one best bet? Right? Oh? That 0:14:23.240 --> 0:14:25.160 was one of them. I just, oh, there are we 0:14:25.280 --> 0:14:27.320 ranking the best bets? Yeah? That was my number one. 0:14:27.440 --> 0:14:29.440 That was his number one. Alright, Mikey, you're number one 0:14:29.680 --> 0:14:31.720 I'm gonna go back to I'll go back to a 0:14:31.760 --> 0:14:33.600 team I've had the last two weeks. I lost with 0:14:33.680 --> 0:14:35.560 them two weeks ago, covered last week. I'm gonna go 0:14:35.600 --> 0:14:39.120 back to the Baltimore Ravens UH playing against New England. 0:14:39.680 --> 0:14:43.480 UH in the evening game on Sunday, listen, New England 0:14:43.520 --> 0:14:46.200 could not stop the Jets running the football. Before you 0:14:46.240 --> 0:14:48.800 get into the discussion, what what line are we giving him, 0:14:48.800 --> 0:14:53.640 Gil Baltimore is that's an excellent question. I think it's 0:14:53.680 --> 0:14:59.120 mostly seven sevens not happening with that, Well, it's not 0:14:59.160 --> 0:15:04.000 seven and a half. So the New England had no 0:15:04.080 --> 0:15:06.240 ability to stop the Jets from running the football and 0:15:06.360 --> 0:15:09.440 and by all means, Adam Gaze did a masterful job 0:15:10.480 --> 0:15:12.840 avoiding a win on Monday Night. In the game, they 0:15:12.840 --> 0:15:15.880 really should look how good Flacco look because of the 0:15:15.880 --> 0:15:17.880 play action they had to try to commit to the run. 0:15:17.920 --> 0:15:20.680 They were missing Gilmore. But here's the point, Baltimore is 0:15:20.720 --> 0:15:24.520 going to be a Baltimore plays well against bad teams. Baltimore, 0:15:25.480 --> 0:15:29.360 it's too fast on defense for New England to be 0:15:29.440 --> 0:15:31.600 able to sustain drives. It's not going to be like 0:15:31.760 --> 0:15:34.600 where Belichick could just control the whole clock in the 0:15:34.640 --> 0:15:36.920 fourth quarter and not let the Jets onto the field. 0:15:37.160 --> 0:15:39.280 That's not happening. Baltimore is going to be able to 0:15:39.320 --> 0:15:40.960 run the ball at will, and when they can run 0:15:41.000 --> 0:15:47.120 the ball, Lamar Jackson can be an effective play action passer. Um. 0:15:46.480 --> 0:15:48.960 I would lay up to ten ten and a half 0:15:48.960 --> 0:15:50.440 in this say, I just don't think this game is 0:15:50.440 --> 0:15:53.440 going to be close. Baltimore will get to the lead, 0:15:53.480 --> 0:15:56.960 and when they play from the lead, they're devastatingly good team. Uh, 0:15:57.760 --> 0:15:59.560 this is one of my better best bets of the year. 0:15:59.640 --> 0:16:04.440 Ravens minus seven minus seven wait, wait to stop while 0:16:04.440 --> 0:16:08.000 I was adjusting my mask. Seven. That's all right? What 0:16:08.080 --> 0:16:09.480 of your favorite ones of the year? You said, I 0:16:09.520 --> 0:16:14.720 really like this playoff? Okay, I like it Todd number one. 0:16:15.720 --> 0:16:17.920 You know I I I'm with Mikey on this one. 0:16:18.000 --> 0:16:20.320 I like it a lot to one of my you know, 0:16:21.000 --> 0:16:22.840 I would say it's my best bet. Two. I'm going 0:16:22.880 --> 0:16:25.680 with Baltimore minus seven to I. I just think that 0:16:26.360 --> 0:16:30.120 Baltimore beats up on bad teams. Um. New England is 0:16:30.160 --> 0:16:32.640 not a good team this year. Uh. If you have 0:16:32.760 --> 0:16:35.800 to struggle to beat the Jets, come on, I mean, 0:16:35.840 --> 0:16:38.520 who are we kidding? Have you watched this the Denver game. 0:16:38.600 --> 0:16:42.440 Did you see how poorly they were offensively against Denver? 0:16:42.640 --> 0:16:46.800 They're just not a very offensively explosive football team. Cam 0:16:46.800 --> 0:16:50.360 Newton is not super accurate anyways, There's no one to 0:16:50.400 --> 0:16:53.200 throw to even if he was accurate. Uh, you know, 0:16:53.240 --> 0:16:57.440 they give it to running backs. They're not super exciting. 0:16:57.760 --> 0:17:00.400 They're just struggle offensively. I mean, sure they could score 0:17:00.440 --> 0:17:02.880 against the Jets on eight team play drives, but how 0:17:02.880 --> 0:17:04.920 are you going to do that against Baltimore. I think 0:17:04.960 --> 0:17:07.679 they're gonna get killed. And Baltimore loves to beat up 0:17:07.720 --> 0:17:10.520 on bad teams, so you know Belichick is gonna pull 0:17:10.560 --> 0:17:13.280 out all the stops and everything. But I I just 0:17:13.320 --> 0:17:16.080 like Baltimore minus seven. I mean, come on, this is 0:17:16.160 --> 0:17:19.240 this is a tale of totally different classes of teams. 0:17:19.359 --> 0:17:22.720 The Jets thing the other night was very peculiar, wasn't it. 0:17:22.840 --> 0:17:25.359 There was a fourth and three in the first half. 0:17:25.400 --> 0:17:26.880 I think it was three to nothing at the time. 0:17:26.920 --> 0:17:31.320 Don't hold me to that. They were in plus territory 0:17:31.400 --> 0:17:33.280 and they punted and that was like, what are they 0:17:33.320 --> 0:17:36.200 doing their own eight? And then late in that game, 0:17:36.240 --> 0:17:39.520 when they're still up, Flacco with with what amounted to 0:17:39.640 --> 0:17:42.359 a fourth and one punt excuse me, a first down 0:17:42.400 --> 0:17:44.439 punt where he just threw the ball up in the 0:17:44.480 --> 0:17:48.440 air gets picked. Uh. And then they had the twelve 0:17:48.480 --> 0:17:52.919 men on the field during a field goal. Okay uh. 0:17:52.960 --> 0:17:54.560 And then there was a third and twenty for the 0:17:54.600 --> 0:17:56.800 Patriots where the Jets played off the receivers and they 0:17:56.800 --> 0:17:59.960 got nineteen and you're like, they really, they really try 0:18:00.480 --> 0:18:02.480 to win this. And so for those of us the 0:18:02.480 --> 0:18:05.080 survivor who were like rooting heavily against the people who 0:18:05.080 --> 0:18:07.720 have had New England, that was a bitter pill to swallow, 0:18:07.720 --> 0:18:11.119 but it didn't make you wonder. And I'm no conspiracy theorist, 0:18:11.160 --> 0:18:12.600 but there was a lot of things that happened in 0:18:12.600 --> 0:18:14.440 that football game. By the way, that was a great 0:18:14.600 --> 0:18:17.320 That was a great in game opportunity. I had the 0:18:17.359 --> 0:18:20.160 over in that game. Midway through the second quarter. Both 0:18:20.200 --> 0:18:23.080 teams were averaging seven point two yards per play. At 0:18:23.080 --> 0:18:25.520 the time. The game was supposed to be like line 0:18:25.600 --> 0:18:28.120 forty or forty two. Before the game, no one thought 0:18:28.160 --> 0:18:31.040 any points would be scored, so there was absolutely no 0:18:31.160 --> 0:18:34.120 correlation to the way the game was playing at seven 0:18:34.200 --> 0:18:36.480 point two yards per play for each team and what 0:18:36.560 --> 0:18:39.720 the actual line was it went easily over even with 0:18:40.000 --> 0:18:43.720 drives that were like eleven minutes long. So you know, guys, 0:18:43.800 --> 0:18:46.160 in game, if you're not watching this in game stuff, 0:18:46.200 --> 0:18:48.080 you know you gotta do it. It's it's there's so 0:18:48.160 --> 0:18:51.560 many opportunities. My my number one pick this week is 0:18:51.560 --> 0:18:54.760 the Cleveland Browns minus three against the Texans. Uh. This 0:18:54.840 --> 0:18:57.840 was on guessing lines with Chrissie Andrews on Monday. This 0:18:57.920 --> 0:19:01.760 was the line that clearly jumped off the page to 0:19:01.800 --> 0:19:04.080 me and made it. It made the least sense of all. 0:19:04.640 --> 0:19:07.720 I guessed Cleveland minus four and a half, and I thought, 0:19:07.760 --> 0:19:10.480 if anything, I was gonna be light. And he told me, 0:19:10.520 --> 0:19:12.600 he goes. You know, I said, I like your line better. 0:19:13.000 --> 0:19:14.840 I see nothing but two and a half and threes. 0:19:15.200 --> 0:19:17.320 And then you thought, well, maybe this is because Baker 0:19:17.400 --> 0:19:22.080 Mayfield is in the reserve COVID nineteen lists, and so 0:19:22.119 --> 0:19:26.119 it's some kind of strange, nebulous thing that's happening. Nope, 0:19:26.720 --> 0:19:30.040 Baker Mayfield uh is off that he is eligible to play. 0:19:30.080 --> 0:19:33.119 He will play, and it's minus three with extra juice. 0:19:33.160 --> 0:19:35.879 That's the consensus, right right, I see three and a 0:19:35.960 --> 0:19:38.199 half and and one three minus twenty five? What do 0:19:38.240 --> 0:19:42.760 you see Dr bob um it's split. I think three 0:19:42.800 --> 0:19:46.600 minus twenty five or three and a a half is a choice. 0:19:47.240 --> 0:19:48.800 I think we we need to give you three and 0:19:48.840 --> 0:19:51.359 a half to be fair. Go oh wait a minute, 0:19:51.359 --> 0:19:54.560 I see nothing but threes. Three minus twenty five is 0:19:54.640 --> 0:19:57.800 probably consensus. Three minus twenty five is consensus, Todd. That's 0:19:57.800 --> 0:19:59.800 how this works. You don't give me a minus three 0:19:59.800 --> 0:20:02.480 and a half in minus one ten? Well, three is 0:20:02.520 --> 0:20:04.320 almost three and a half. But okay, it is whatever. 0:20:04.359 --> 0:20:06.680 But I'm just looking across the screen and the kinsensis 0:20:06.720 --> 0:20:10.560 of minus three minus one anyway, Okay, are you gonna 0:20:10.680 --> 0:20:13.240 Are you gonna if this pick loses town? Are you 0:20:13.280 --> 0:20:18.400 gonna grade Gil has more than one loss? Because it's 0:20:17.680 --> 0:20:20.280 great point. It's a great point, Mike. Maybe we should 0:20:20.320 --> 0:20:22.040 do that, give him a quarter loss. There you go. 0:20:22.400 --> 0:20:23.840 Let's just have that for the rest of the year, 0:20:23.880 --> 0:20:28.720 hanging on it if it doesn't be awesome. Houston's only 0:20:28.760 --> 0:20:33.240