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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along
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Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App. We are
Speaker 2: in the front row right now in the shock of
Speaker 2: these markets. The perfect guest, Stephen Whiting, is with City
Speaker 2: Group and just to say the least, he is steeped
Speaker 2: in the linkage of our economics to our market. Steve,
Speaker 2: I can't to start with, is our economics linked to
Speaker 2: our stock market right now? Well?
Speaker 3: It is, but it is out of sync in some
Speaker 3: ways from the way it has been in the past.
Speaker 3: We have been just looking back at the last year
Speaker 3: and a half in a period of poor corporate profits,
Speaker 3: with a few magnificent exceptions. If you take a look
Speaker 3: at global EPs X mag seven. It was about negative
Speaker 3: seven percent last year, and we now see it recovering,
Speaker 3: while the labor market, which was torrential in terms of
Speaker 3: its rebound from the pandemic, is slowing down. So slowing
Speaker 3: employment and rising corporate profits. That's this moment.
Speaker 2: Annawan, publishing moments Ago on LinkedIn follows up where their
Speaker 2: zeitgeist changing birth death analysis. This is inside baseball, folks,
Speaker 2: only Widing reads this stuff. I don't, but Anna says
Speaker 2: it's here in the job reveal visions will show a
Speaker 2: more tepid American labor market.
Speaker 3: Do you agree, Well, let's just be careful to see
Speaker 3: the actual data, and she says, she says that, yeah,
Speaker 3: the levels versus the growth rates. And you know, when
Speaker 3: you're dealing with you one hundred and fifty million people,
Speaker 3: you know, is what does that necessarily mean? But I
Speaker 3: think if you take a look at the labor market,
Speaker 3: and this is all discussed in our City Global Wealth
Speaker 3: Midyear Outlook report we're releasing today, what you're seeing is
Speaker 3: a real slow down in gross hiring. And despite all
Speaker 3: the you know, the reports on layoffs, they're not up
Speaker 3: that much in the aggregate, but a real slow down
Speaker 3: and hiring. And you can take a look at the
Speaker 3: Jolts report. We've had four million fewer unfilled job openings
Speaker 3: from you know, twelve million, eight million rounded, right, so
Speaker 3: you know this path is coming down. There's something else now,
Speaker 3: this is really zooming in on the on the near term,
Speaker 3: and people get very crazed about this. But we had
Speaker 3: over two hundred and sixty thousand jobs created in the
Speaker 3: first quarter of the year. Guess what happens at midyear, right,
Speaker 3: we have a less sea an economy. Right, we're just
Speaker 3: thinking about agricultural cycles. See, maybe that's the one that
Speaker 3: people can can think about. We don't need to hire
Speaker 3: and fire everyone because of the time of the year
Speaker 3: the way we used to. If you take a look
Speaker 3: at economic surprises, the city economic surprise indecks, you will
Speaker 3: see that it's stronger in the winter and weaker in
Speaker 3: the spring and summer. And suddenly everyone is saying this,
Speaker 3: you know, economy was trenchally strong is now in a
Speaker 3: bust again. And that is not really happening either. But
Speaker 3: it wouldn't surprise me if job gains are about half
Speaker 3: the first quarter pace.
Speaker 4: Interesting, So Steve, I'm just I'm looking at the Wealth
Speaker 4: al of twenty twenty four, the mid year edition for
Speaker 4: you guys, renewed growth, New challenges, Building resistant portfolios is
Speaker 4: a resilient portfolio. Can I back away from the mag seven?
Speaker 4: Can I try to do some homework here and try
Speaker 4: to find some value outside of the magnizine seven?
Speaker 3: I think we just have to take a look. When
Speaker 3: you're when you deal with three trillion dollar companies, maybe
Speaker 3: you can take you know, an individual view. I would
Speaker 3: just say that, you know, for every chip maker, there's
Speaker 3: a customer, and if all of those customers are all
Speaker 3: spending like mad all at once, you know, we might
Speaker 3: think about their motes in the future and whether or
Speaker 3: not they're going to be competing in the same space.
Speaker 3: And you know, the good news and again the renewed
Speaker 3: growth part is on profits. I think ten out of
Speaker 3: eleven sectors will have EPs gains this year. I think
Speaker 3: much larger swath of the world will have EPs gains.
Speaker 3: And it's not that they're all going to be value
Speaker 3: the same, that'll never happen, but the rise in profits
Speaker 3: is the positive catalyst for more of the world equity market.
Speaker 4: All right, Well, how about a fixed income here? I mean,
Speaker 4: Lisa Mitteo is sitting in here at a two year
Speaker 4: treasury darn near five percent, no gray hairs, she sleeps fine.
Speaker 4: What's wrong with buying a two year treasury? Just sitting there?
Speaker 3: Well, you know, the world doesn't end in two years though,
Speaker 3: that's part part of the issue, you know. So the
Speaker 3: treasury market very efficiently is embedding a lot of easing,
Speaker 3: and the inverted yield curve makes it difficult. But you know,
Speaker 3: when the Fed says that it's long term normal rate
Speaker 3: is two point six percent, say that they're exaggerating. It
Speaker 3: isn't going to be that low. You know, what can
Speaker 3: you do with a four year duration? Where will you
Speaker 3: want to be in four years in terms of the
Speaker 3: interest rate that you're earning? And we think, again, there
Speaker 3: are big pieces of the bond market that without a
Speaker 3: lot of duration risk, you know, can can earn you
Speaker 3: six percent.
Speaker 2: What are we going to see? An issuance? What are
Speaker 2: we going to see? I mean, this is a nuts time.
Speaker 2: Even people that have nailed this, they don't Nvidia into
Speaker 2: the moon agree, there's a there's a there's a resonance,
Speaker 2: an anxiety to it, a frenzy almost is that Jodenny says,
Speaker 2: it's the roaring twenties. What are cfo's going to do?
Speaker 2: What I mean, I look at the bond issuance and
Speaker 2: this is not z body up at be you there's
Speaker 2: something going on here. Why are we seeing normal financing?
Speaker 3: Steve Whiting, Well, look, I think they're I guess that.
Speaker 3: You know, the thing that's most surprising if we look
Speaker 3: back now that in ten of the last fifteen years
Speaker 3: we're close to a zero policy rate, and you know,
Speaker 3: we had this wonderful period in twenty twenty one where
Speaker 3: Americans could get two and a half percent mortgages again,
Speaker 3: and you know and say, you know, put that on
Speaker 3: the wall. In the US, I think we've had just
Speaker 3: tremendous amount of refinancing and locking in, you know, of
Speaker 3: really good levels here that make the equity market better,
Speaker 3: and you know, have limited our need for for refinancing.
Speaker 3: I think again it'll pick up. There's some increase in
Speaker 3: interest costs, and even the US Treasury is better off
Speaker 3: because of the FEDS tightening. And I know that we've
Speaker 3: had a couple billion a couple hundred billion dollar increase
Speaker 3: on the level of our interest costs that will still
Speaker 3: go up in a bit of time. But they've knocked
Speaker 3: it out. They've stopped this from being early eighties kind
Speaker 3: of increased.
Speaker 2: Steve White, you think it's so much Mike Wilson, He
Speaker 2: joins us, Now some what cautious on this great bull market. Mike,
Speaker 2: how does a cautious bull play the madness of this
Speaker 2: technology rally?
Speaker 5: Yeah, I think that's a good way to phrase it, Tom.
Speaker 5: I mean, you know, it is a bull market in
Speaker 5: a lot of different areas of the market, and many
Speaker 5: parts of the market are in a bear market, and
Speaker 5: so that creates a really good opportunity at the stock
Speaker 5: level and at the index level. Now, of course, everybody
Speaker 5: knows about the you know, concentration in the index. Everyone
Speaker 5: knows about the you know, incredible outperformance of the of
Speaker 5: the high quality gross stocks relative to say low quality
Speaker 5: small caps. And and that's what we've been doing, is
Speaker 5: we've been really trying to create the relative value trades
Speaker 5: within the market. The one that is the most consistent.
Speaker 5: There's been several over the last eighteen months. And it's
Speaker 5: and by the way I should have set the stage,
Speaker 5: it's it's a late cycle economy and a late cycle economy.
Speaker 5: Full employment you know that that is fairly tight. They're
Speaker 5: maybe about to start cutting Typically large app quality is
Speaker 5: the place to be, and that is essentially the S
Speaker 5: and P. Five hundred. So that all makes sense, and
Speaker 5: I think there's this there's sort of this appetite to
Speaker 5: want to veer away from that, to go down to
Speaker 5: quality curve. Everybody say, well, we can't keep buying the
Speaker 5: same stocks, and the reality is is that's the way
Speaker 5: it usually is at the end of a cycle, and
Speaker 5: they can go on for longer than you think.
Speaker 2: Mike Wilson, if we get a breakdown in yields and
Speaker 2: I've got a ten year real yield one point nine
Speaker 2: nine percent, check, yes, one point nine nine percent. If
Speaker 2: yields actually breakdown for whatever, Ellen Zenner reason, how does
Speaker 2: that change equity dynamics?
Speaker 5: Well, I mean, look, it depends on why yields are falling. Okay,
Speaker 5: So if yields are falling, because the FED is going
Speaker 5: to give us some sort of insurance cuts here, which
Speaker 5: is Ellen's view, and quite frankly that's the Fed's view too, right,
Speaker 5: They're not, I mean, they're they're they're signaling they're going
Speaker 5: to cut rates because they can not, because they have
Speaker 5: to and in that environment, well, that kind of speaks
Speaker 5: to more of the same, which is that we continue
Speaker 5: to see you know, high quality stocks outperforming. Now, by
Speaker 5: the way, it doesn't have to be seven stocks. It
Speaker 5: can be areas and industrials, it can be some healthcare stocks,
Speaker 5: it can be consumer stocks. But what usually does well is,
Speaker 5: you know, his rates come down slowly because growth is
Speaker 5: slowing but not crashing, is higher multiples. And that's the
Speaker 5: environment we're in and that probably persists now. Things are
Speaker 5: stretched on evaluation basis, and we've written about that's why
Speaker 5: we're not as bullish as others in terms of where
Speaker 5: the index can go over the next six or twelve months.
Speaker 5: And so therefore, you know, we're trying to define opportunities
Speaker 5: away from the stocks that have already run. And I
Speaker 5: would say the other theme that's worked really well is
Speaker 5: operational efficiency. So companies that maybe aren't growing as fast
Speaker 5: in the top line, but are doing a phenomenal job
Speaker 5: of managing their businesses to you know, generate cash flow
Speaker 5: from whatever revenue they are getting.
Speaker 4: Hey, Mike, talk to us about I guess the industrial
Speaker 4: economy here is it's a sector we should be looking
Speaker 4: out away from the Magnificent seven. I mean, I've we
Speaker 4: got a government is talking about a lot of fiscal
Speaker 4: stimulus here, a lot of investments spending and going forward
Speaker 4: over the next decade or so, and maybe even some
Speaker 4: rates coming down. Is the industrial sector someplace where people
Speaker 4: should be looking for some opportunities.
Speaker 5: Well, we think so. We've been talking about this for
Speaker 5: about a year now, and for the reasons you've mentioned.
Speaker 5: In many ways, I would say the industrial sector has
Speaker 5: more legs to the stool than the technology sector. Right
Speaker 5: the technology sector has AI spending, but quite frankly, core
Speaker 5: IT spending is somewhat in a recession right now because
Speaker 5: of all the payback from the COVID pull forward. Meanwhile,
Speaker 5: industrials have you know, the CHIPSAC program, they have the
Speaker 5: IRA policy, they have the reshoring, they have the infrastructure
Speaker 5: upgrades that are going on all over the world, the
Speaker 5: green infrastructure sort of retrofitting. So there's a lot of
Speaker 5: sort of irons in the fire that can drive strong
Speaker 5: revenue growth for capital goods companies. Now, once again, not
Speaker 5: all industrial companies are created equal. Right now, not all
Speaker 5: going to benefit equally from this sort of trend. But
Speaker 5: you know, the capital goods companies that have exposure to
Speaker 5: those types of spending should continue to do well.
Speaker 4: So one of the other areas of you know, Mike,
Speaker 4: a lot of folks think about, is just how about
Speaker 4: this energy space here? We've got wtech crude oil now
Speaker 4: down below seventy five It was as high as ninety
Speaker 4: just several weeks ago. What do we do with global
Speaker 4: energy here? If this world is trying to move towards
Speaker 4: a greener energy space.
Speaker 5: It is I mean, look, I think energy longer term,
Speaker 5: intermediate term is probably still an attractive asset because we're
Speaker 5: going to continue to use fossil fuels even with the
Speaker 5: green transition. However, in the short term energy prices have
Speaker 5: been under pressure for two reasons. I think. Number one,
Speaker 5: we've seen a little bit of a supply boost from
Speaker 5: OPEC talking about it. In the intermediate term, they may
Speaker 5: continue to produce more. It looks like Saudiy Raby's trying
Speaker 5: to take share back and prices have come down for
Speaker 5: that reason. But I don't I still think there's a
Speaker 5: little bit of a sluggish demand picture that doesn't get
Speaker 5: a lot of attention, and this is one of our
Speaker 5: concerns about the broader market, which is that we still
Speaker 5: think there's a decent chance of you know, not just
Speaker 5: a soft landing, but also a hard landing and a
Speaker 5: no landing, and we just don't know the outcome there,
Speaker 5: and so we are watching the energy space closely as
Speaker 5: a signal that maybe driving demand as we go into
Speaker 5: the summer or other forms of demand for energy is
Speaker 5: not as robust as you might think given the strength
Speaker 5: in the overall economy.
Speaker 2: Mike Wilson, I got one minute left. How do you
Speaker 2: use cash now as a hedge? Are you? Are you
Speaker 2: fully in the markets with your caution or is cash
Speaker 2: a constructive tool?
Speaker 5: Well, we always have some cash on the sidelines. You
Speaker 5: should as any you know, asset owner investor should I
Speaker 5: mean obvious if you're an asset manager. Is a little different.
Speaker 5: And I do think the barbell of cash and high
Speaker 5: quality stocks has been the place to be and it
Speaker 5: probably will continue to be the place to be as
Speaker 5: long as we remain in this sort of late cycle
Speaker 5: softly outcome. Right, So in other words, cash is probably
Speaker 5: better than long duration because long duration has risk and
Speaker 5: you're getting another percent returned on front end cash, So
Speaker 5: there's nothing wrong with that, But being fully invested in
Speaker 5: high quality stocks. Is is also part of that strategy.
Speaker 2: Mike Wilson, thank you so much for that. We speak
Speaker 2: with Monica Defense, head of a Monday Institute of Course
Speaker 2: of Europe on this ECB decision. Monica, just to frame
Speaker 2: this full of guard and the challenge of the press conference,
Speaker 2: is there disinflation in Europe?
Speaker 6: Yes, we think that the trend is there, but the
Speaker 6: direction one't billinear. So we do expect a little bit
Speaker 6: of stolling and then our volatility and on the back
Speaker 6: of this probably we will have actually the cuts today,
Speaker 6: but we are not expecting a catcher to come into
Speaker 6: life just because on this inflation that is taking longer
Speaker 6: and is lower than expected. They don't really they are
Speaker 6: not really in a rush to cut father Paul.
Speaker 2: I see on the nominal GDP question core inflation, they're twosh.
Speaker 2: I'm gonna say, as a conversational point, get out to growth,
Speaker 2: which is not what you'd expect from the Fed. Next
Speaker 2: year's growth one point four percent, down a tenth. So
Speaker 2: you got a nominal GDP that is different than the
Speaker 2: nominal GDP of the party you're going to in New
Speaker 2: Jersey this weekend.
Speaker 4: Exactly so Monica, Is this the ECB telling the markets
Speaker 4: global Wall Street that inflation in Europe is in check?
Speaker 4: Is that what we're hearing today?
Speaker 6: Yes, this is probably what is happening. But if I
Speaker 6: can go back to your point before, having in mind
Speaker 6: that the central banks one target the GDP growth, it's
Speaker 6: really on the output gap, and this might help us
Speaker 6: explaining what to expect from the central banks, notably the
Speaker 6: FED moving forward where the outpook gap is narrowing and
Speaker 6: is expected to progressively.
Speaker 4: Our father, so Mana, give us a sense of just
Speaker 4: kind of broadly defined how the EU economy is today.
Speaker 4: Does the EU economy need these rate cuts or is
Speaker 4: it kind of rebounding on its own?
Speaker 6: Well, the U economy is approved has proved to be
Speaker 6: less reason relented than the US. We came out of
Speaker 6: the post pandemic in a slower manner. But we think
Speaker 6: that now, at least for the second ATA, we are
Speaker 6: just approaching to two potentials. So we are coming from
Speaker 6: south approaching the potential growth. Obviously, within the Uter Zone
Speaker 6: there are countries that are really running at different at
Speaker 6: different speed. And this is if you weren't complicating the
Speaker 6: job that the easy be has.
Speaker 4: To do so given that backgroup, Monica, when you talk
Speaker 4: to your institution investor clients at a MUNDI, where are
Speaker 4: they looking for opportunities if they're willing to take some
Speaker 4: risk in this market.
Speaker 6: Well, we really need to have magnify a lenses. So
Speaker 6: when because just because top down is really difficult to
Speaker 6: find convincing structural investment opportunities. When it goes to Europe,
Speaker 6: probably having the easy B set for further cuts and
Speaker 6: the cycle that is expected to renew some momentum, small
Speaker 6: cap might be an interesting opportunity as well as the
Speaker 6: UK equities for example, just because of the sector, the
Speaker 6: equity composition, the sector composition of the of the equity market.
Speaker 6: When it goes to the US, probably our clients are
Speaker 6: a little bit more coacious where there are plenty of
Speaker 6: opportunities in emerging markets.
Speaker 2: Monica, is there a divide at the ECB? Regard has
Speaker 2: done such a good job of straddling the political tension,
Speaker 2: But on this historic day of a rate cut in
Speaker 2: the ECB, even around an inflation forecast that lives that
Speaker 2: in itself is absurd. But Monica, how big is the division,
Speaker 2: say between Germany and Finland? I mean just as one.
Speaker 6: Example, when it goes to inflation, for sure, dries just
Speaker 6: because all prices have been impacted in a different way
Speaker 6: the two regions and going in that granularity is what
Speaker 6: I meant with having such a hard job when it
Speaker 6: goes to the ECB decision. But EVI said that probably
Speaker 6: there is this core of countries that because of the
Speaker 6: weight that they have also on the markets that I'm
Speaker 6: not saying are in the driving seats, but possibly are
Speaker 6: definitely relevant as a marketing impact at least.
Speaker 2: Do you agree that there's a little bit of vibrancy
Speaker 2: here in the Eurozone they look at a growth lift
Speaker 2: for twenty twenty four. Do you agree?
Speaker 6: Yes, yes, I agree, and we really think that because
Speaker 6: of the Olympics, because of tourism, there are some there
Speaker 6: is going to be some seasonal momentum. Obviously, what the
Speaker 6: European euro Area needs is an industrial policy that can
Speaker 6: set the region into a longer structural, higher trend.
Speaker 2: Monica, thank you so much. Monica defend with us with
Speaker 2: a Munday Institute. John Storphus joins us because he knows
Speaker 2: you just got to be in the market to win.
Speaker 2: John stofas, how have you amended your bod market call
Speaker 2: in the last number of days.
Speaker 1: Good morning, Tom, and thanks for having me on the show.
Speaker 1: Must they really haven't amended it a hell of a lot,
Speaker 1: while we have recognized the fact that the utilities are
Speaker 1: really performing remarkably well, which essentially suggests to us that
Speaker 1: the market is becoming more confident on a FED cut
Speaker 1: and I think much more realistically now focusing on Kutzfort
Speaker 1: probably in November and December of about twenty five BIPs
Speaker 1: a piece, maybe only one to twenty five BIPs and
Speaker 1: maybe just to continue with other guests have said today
Speaker 1: on your show, indeed you know it's coming, and the
Speaker 1: FED has been remarkably successful at a hike cycle eleven hikes,
Speaker 1: seven pauses or skips as they call them, without putting
Speaker 1: us into a recession thus far.
Speaker 4: Hey, what do you make John of these earnings here
Speaker 4: we've had we just kind of pretty I guess decent
Speaker 4: earnings period is enough to support this market here if
Speaker 4: we have a FED that's going to be kind of
Speaker 4: standing on the sidelines a little bit, you know, Paul,
Speaker 4: I got to.
Speaker 1: Say that the earnings we think are really pretty phenomenal.
Speaker 1: The overall number, you know, shows growth at around seven
Speaker 1: point seven percent on the EA page on the Bloomberg terminal,
Speaker 1: and on back of earnings of around four percent, and
Speaker 1: that is much better than expected at the beginning of
Speaker 1: the earning season for Q one I recall, I think
Speaker 1: it was about that people were looking for about three
Speaker 1: point nine percent in the surveys in terms of earnings growth.
Speaker 1: And when you look at it, it's eight sectors positive
Speaker 1: earnings growth, and within those eight six of them double
Speaker 1: digit earnings growth. Only one of them a defensive sector,
Speaker 1: which is the utes. But you've got communications services, you've
Speaker 1: got consumer discretionary, you've got information technology and financials with
Speaker 1: double digit earnings growth. This is a big deal and
Speaker 1: very seldomension have to lift up the hood, right, bring
Speaker 1: out the Bloomberg and lift up the hood.
Speaker 4: You mentioned utilities. Is this just a play on AI
Speaker 4: or is there something I'm missing here on utilities, Paul,
Speaker 4: I think it's two things.
Speaker 7: One is that most of the utilities, as I recall,
Speaker 7: in the and P five hundred youth sector, are regulated,
Speaker 7: so they've been experiencing higher costs in terms of fuel
Speaker 7: and operational costs.
Speaker 1: Now, so likely the regulators granted them increased billing I mean,
Speaker 1: for those of us who have con ed, do we
Speaker 1: know it? But the reality is the earning more because
Speaker 1: likely the regulators have naturally given them the ability to
Speaker 1: raise their prices. But the other story there is the
Speaker 1: longer term story, or the duration story as we say nowadays,
Speaker 1: anything tech related likely is that utes are likely to
Speaker 1: be huge participants in the build out of the new
Speaker 1: grid in terms of transporting electricity and the whole process
Speaker 1: of producing it. And that's the longer term story that
Speaker 1: I think investors who are intermediate to long term looking
Speaker 1: for on top of a dividend, on top of better earnings,
Speaker 1: et cetera.
Speaker 2: Paul years ago, did we have market timing? Was it
Speaker 2: as big as it is?
Speaker 4: I'll note it's tough to do, that's for sure, market timing.
Speaker 2: It's just you know what Stolfis is done, with Gina
Speaker 2: Martin Adams done. It is a miracle. I mean, we're
Speaker 2: under plane, as folks, second leg of a bull market.
Speaker 2: You're in timor is are you in seventh inning or
Speaker 2: fifth inning? But these people are the courage to stay
Speaker 2: in the market.
Speaker 4: Stay in the market. And if I want to stay
Speaker 4: in the market, John, in the fixed income space, do
Speaker 4: I just hang out with that to your treasury, or
Speaker 4: I try to get a little bit smarter, maybe take
Speaker 4: some credit risk.
Speaker 1: It really pins paul on what type of investor you are.
Speaker 1: If you're really a more adept to diversification, you can
Speaker 1: look for opportunities in credits in municipals. But certainly for now,
Speaker 1: the front end of the curve is a really comfortable
Speaker 1: place for putting stuff, for putting cash into, because you've
Speaker 1: you've still got an inverted yield curve related to the
Speaker 1: short end of the curve. So but what we would
Speaker 1: say is we think bonds at this point are not
Speaker 1: competitive with stocks because for intermediate long term investing, we
Speaker 1: believe that it stocks where you want to be. Just
Speaker 1: consider from the end of October last year, when the
Speaker 1: rally began October twenty seventh, through yesterday's close, the S
Speaker 1: and P is up thirty point zero four percent. If
Speaker 1: at a time one had decided to just with the
Speaker 1: five percent treasury, which was around where the ten year was,
Speaker 1: as I re all at that time four point eight
Speaker 1: four point nine, you'd still be waiting to get that
Speaker 1: four point eight four point nine, and the S and
Speaker 1: P's up thirty now at infobak forty four point nine
Speaker 1: to three, communications services forty two point three, five financials
Speaker 1: who would guess it up? Thirty one point one right,
Speaker 1: and in dust reels twenty seven In the last, well,
Speaker 1: I'll mention it is a consumer discretionary have twenty one
Speaker 1: percent now, no guarantee of future results, but certainly to
Speaker 1: pause and ponder.
Speaker 2: Right, John Sophis, thank you so much. This is a
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Speaker 6: MHM