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Speaker 2: Yeah, you made it to the threshold of the weekend.
Speaker 2: Thank you for joining us here on the Friday edition
Speaker 2: of Balance of Power on Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite
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Speaker 2: from Washington here and in New York. Eighteen days left.
Speaker 2: As you keep hearing, we're counting down to the final
Speaker 2: two weeks here on the campaign trail, and we'll get
Speaker 2: to what Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are up to
Speaker 2: in a moment. Huge questions though about the impact, if
Speaker 2: any at all, that the latest news from Israel might
Speaker 2: have on this race. Important optics yesterday to see Kamala
Speaker 2: Harris out there in front of the podium speaking on
Speaker 2: behalf of the administration, upon the news that Israel killed
Speaker 2: Ya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas. It happened right at
Speaker 2: this time yesterday, right we learned together during this program
Speaker 2: we have heard from the President himself, Joe Biden in fact,
Speaker 2: already on his way back from Germany. That was a
Speaker 2: quick one. Met with Olaf Schultz, had to sit down
Speaker 2: with Emmanuel Macrone, got a big award while he was there.
Speaker 2: He talked about this news from Israel along the way.
Speaker 2: Here's Joe Biden.
Speaker 3: The death of Leaderjmas represents a moment of justice. He
Speaker 3: had the blood of Americans and Israelis, Palestinians and Germany
Speaker 3: and so many others on his hands. I told the
Speaker 3: Prime Minister of Visil yesterday, let's also make this moment
Speaker 3: an opportunity to seek a path to piece a better
Speaker 3: future in Gaza without Hamas.
Speaker 2: Brings us to the news on the terminal and the
Speaker 2: headline us pushing for truce in Gaza after Israel kills
Speaker 2: Hamas leader. We can add another headline while we're at
Speaker 2: it here Biden will send blinkoln to Israel in aftermath
Speaker 2: of Sinhwar's death. Is this an opportunity for peace? Or
Speaker 2: did the window just close? A lot of people asking
Speaker 2: that too, because Sinwar, of course was speaking for Hamas
Speaker 2: and it's unclear who exactly has taken the calls right now,
Speaker 2: That's where we start our conversation with Courtney McBride, who
Speaker 2: frequently travels with the Secretary of State covering diplomacy and
Speaker 2: national security for US here at Bloomberg in Washington. Courtney,
Speaker 2: it's great to see you. Thanks for coming along. This
Speaker 2: is obviously a big deal yesterday and people are trying
Speaker 2: to understand what its impact will be. If we can
Speaker 2: just start with our own relationship with Israel in this
Speaker 2: wait for a response to Iran, the prospect of a
Speaker 2: cease fire with Gaza. That it moved the needle on any.
Speaker 4: Of these, I mean that remains to be seen. Sinwar
Speaker 4: has been framed as the biggest obstacle to a ceasefire
Speaker 4: in Gaza. You know, over the last month or so
Speaker 4: he was not communicating with the mediators in Egypt and culture,
Speaker 4: and so there's there's some hope tenuous though it may
Speaker 4: be that perhaps a successor would would be a little
Speaker 4: bit more amenable to talks.
Speaker 2: I keep hearing the word opportunity. Kamala Harris used it yesterday,
Speaker 2: So did Joe Biden, what opportunity does Benjamin Netna who
Speaker 2: see well?
Speaker 4: Prime Minister Ntnaho has said that, you know, the fight
Speaker 4: is not over. You know, Hamas continues to be a
Speaker 4: threat to Israel, but he also suggested that if Hamas
Speaker 4: were to lay down its arms, this war could end
Speaker 4: in short order. You know, it remains to be seen
Speaker 4: whether the parties come to the table or their mediators
Speaker 4: do so.
Speaker 2: But we'll see enter Anthony Blincoln. We don't have an
Speaker 2: announcement on a trip yet, correct. What would be the
Speaker 2: timing that would be effective? Do they want him there now?
Speaker 2: Or is maybe there are a thought that we wait
Speaker 2: for Israel's response to Iran before he gets on an airplane.
Speaker 4: I mean unclear. You know, I'm certainly not privy to
Speaker 4: the planning process, but the President made clear that he
Speaker 4: was going to be dispatching secretary of blink and in
Speaker 4: the coming days. You know, it remains to be seen
Speaker 4: exactly when that is. But I'm sure that you know,
Speaker 4: part of that calculation on timing is that sense that
Speaker 4: there is potentially an opportunity, Yeah, which.
Speaker 2: I suspect is up in the air right now, knowing
Speaker 2: that Israel is dealing with multiple fronts. Would that be
Speaker 2: a meeting with Benjamin Nett Nyahu or is there a
Speaker 2: hope that Anthony Blincoln ends up at a negotiating table
Speaker 2: with multiple parties?
Speaker 4: I mean, who knows. I mean, as we know, CIA
Speaker 4: Director Bill Burns has been leading the hostage negotiation and
Speaker 4: cease fire deal talks on behalf of the United States.
Speaker 4: I have no reasona believe that that would change. But certainly,
Speaker 4: you know, if if Secretary Blincoln is is being sent
Speaker 4: to the region, he would presumably be meeting with with
Speaker 4: natal or other other senior leaders.
Speaker 2: Joe Biden said something awfully important right when he was
Speaker 2: getting on the airplane. We ran this headline on the terminal.
Speaker 2: I know how Israel will respond to Iran and when
Speaker 2: that means a plan is in place? Do we take
Speaker 2: him at his word?
Speaker 4: I mean, he has been in contact with with Natano,
Speaker 4: and you know, if if he knows, I suppose it.
Speaker 2: Pretty for the President to be.
Speaker 4: Saying that, it's unusual certainly, uh, you know, for for
Speaker 4: him to be telegraphing. I guess he's not saying the timing.
Speaker 2: That's right, he just says that he knows. So clearly
Speaker 2: they had quite a conversation uh yesterday, and you wonder
Speaker 2: again what form that will take. Is this going to
Speaker 2: be uh, a situation where the dynamic changes following the election?
Speaker 2: The world is waiting to see who the next president is.
Speaker 2: How About in Israel certainly.
Speaker 4: I mean, you know, it's no secret that there have
Speaker 4: been tensions between Nataniello and Biden, and you know, the
Speaker 4: Prime Minister and former President Trump seem to have a
Speaker 4: good understanding. But there is some sense that there could
Speaker 4: be another window of opportunity, both for Israel and for
Speaker 4: the US in the period between the election and the inauguration.
Speaker 4: Perhaps that is dependent on the outcome of the US election,
Speaker 4: but you know, it remains to be seen how much
Speaker 4: leverage sure either party has.
Speaker 2: It's always amazing to see what can get done in
Speaker 2: a lame duck session. Courtney, It's great to see you.
Speaker 2: Thank you. One of these days I'm going to come
Speaker 2: to the news from Courtney will not be here, and
Speaker 2: I'll just know that Anthony of Lincoln is on his way.
Speaker 2: Bloomberg National Security reporter Courtney McBride on an important day
Speaker 2: here in the evolution of this war between of course
Speaker 2: Israel and Hamas that has been underway for over a year.
Speaker 2: Yaya Sinwar, who was killed and confirmed right around this
Speaker 2: time yesterday, known as the architect of October seventh. And
Speaker 2: so this is of course seen as not only a
Speaker 2: win for Israel, but also for the Biden administration. And
Speaker 2: we want to add the voice of Jonathan Panakoff. We
Speaker 2: haven't had Jonathan with us in a moment, and none
Speaker 2: would be better than right now. He's director of the
Speaker 2: Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council. Jonathan,
Speaker 2: welcome back to Bloomberg. It's good to see you. What
Speaker 2: do you make of Joe Biden with this revelation? Before
Speaker 2: getting on Air Force one, I know how Israel will
Speaker 2: respond to Iran and when is this plan cooked?
Speaker 5: Great to be back with you. Oh look, I mean
Speaker 5: I think certainly a reflects frankly better and greater coordination
Speaker 5: than we saw when it came to Israel strikes against Nasralla,
Speaker 5: when it came to Israel strikes against Hania, when the
Speaker 5: US clearly was not informed. I think it also reflects
Speaker 5: or recognition in Israe that as much as Prime Minister
Speaker 5: net and Yaho, they want to go it alone and
Speaker 5: keep things close hold when it comes to Iran, it's
Speaker 5: just a different category than Hesbala or Hamas. The reality
Speaker 5: is Israeli strikes in have a huge impact on the US,
Speaker 5: and there's real questions, right, would the Israelis be willing
Speaker 5: to strike energy terminals? Would they be pipelines? I would
Speaker 5: obviously have huge reverberations across the world across energy markets.
Speaker 5: Would they try to strike the nuclear assets and program
Speaker 5: of Iran? I think actually having it be coordinated with
Speaker 5: the US is a positive thing. And I think, while
Speaker 5: maybe surprising, the President said that he knows what the
Speaker 5: plan is now, I think everybody just has to hope
Speaker 5: that Israel sticks to that plan.
Speaker 2: Well, there was reporting that the Biden administration has essentially
Speaker 2: talked Israel into avoiding oil installations, never mind the nuclear
Speaker 2: weapons program, and we've seen the oil market respond accordingly.
Speaker 2: That brought prices down quite a bit. Whether or not
Speaker 2: we believe that, Jonathan, do you think everything is on
Speaker 2: the table here or this will be a precision strike
Speaker 2: by Israel?
Speaker 5: No, my sense is and I could be completely wrong here,
Speaker 5: but because I'm going based on the same reporting you are,
Speaker 5: But I think given commentary by the President He probably
Speaker 5: wouldn't have said that if you still had disagreements, And
Speaker 5: the President's been pretty clear he wants to see energy infrastructure,
Speaker 5: oil infrastructure off the table when it comes to a strike,
Speaker 5: same with a nuclear weapons program. That doesn't mean the
Speaker 5: strike won't be incredibly robust. In fact, I'd expect that
Speaker 5: it will be. I think military installations, hardware, defensive equipment
Speaker 5: that Iran has put up to try and prevent futures,
Speaker 5: really strikes, cyber attacks, my sensors, all of that is
Speaker 5: probably on the table. I think you'll still have a
Speaker 5: robust response, but maybe you're just excluding those specific areas.
Speaker 2: Of course, that's in a How about next door in Gaza?
Speaker 2: Kamala Harris sounding a bit like Joe Biden using the
Speaker 2: word opportunity when she spoke yesterday about the killing of
Speaker 2: Yaya Sinwar quote, this moment gives us an opportunity to
Speaker 2: finally end the war in Gaza, and it must end
Speaker 2: such that Israel is secure. Is this just happy talk
Speaker 2: two weeks before an election here, Jonathan, or does this
Speaker 2: actually present an opportunity for peace?
Speaker 5: I think it really depends on Frankly who emerges as
Speaker 5: the leadership of Hamas and WhereNet and Yah who feels
Speaker 5: like he's hid an end goal when it comes to
Speaker 5: what's needed for security of Israel. If Hamas actually elects
Speaker 5: somebody outside of Gaza, somebody like Halal Hayak, who's been
Speaker 5: the chief negotiator since Nia's death, then yeah, I think
Speaker 5: it probably does represent an opportunity that you actually could
Speaker 5: get to some sort of hostage ceasefire deal. But the
Speaker 5: reality is if Hamas decides no, we're gonna double down
Speaker 5: and elect somebody like Mohammed Sinhwar, the brother of Yaya Sinhar,
Speaker 5: who is one of the chief architects, frankly of the
Speaker 5: tunnel infrastructure, it's gonna make it much much harder to
Speaker 5: imagine that you're going to reach a deal even in
Speaker 5: the aftermath of an election.
Speaker 2: Boy, that's really something you're an expert on Middle East security, Jonathan.
Speaker 2: Is this going to escalate into a wider war or
Speaker 2: is the next exchange gonna be the last?
Speaker 5: I think it really is going to depend on two things.
Speaker 5: One is how far Ron wants to escalate, and you
Speaker 5: got to be under clear that there's tensions in Iran. Iran,
Speaker 5: it may have the Supreme Leader making the ultimate call,
Speaker 5: but it's not a monolith. There are various folks in Iran,
Speaker 5: in the guards who are going to want to strike back.
Speaker 5: I'm sure to whatever Israel does hard to try to
Speaker 5: ensure deterrents from there, and there's folks who are going
Speaker 5: to say, no, we have to end this. We can't afford, frankly,
Speaker 5: to re escalate, because then Israel's gonna say, look, we
Speaker 5: did what the US wanted. Now the energy assets are
Speaker 5: on the table, now the nuclear weapons program is on
Speaker 5: the table. I think that's gonna be a real debate,
Speaker 5: frankly in Iran. The second part of this is Frankly, Lebanon,
Speaker 5: because even if you've got a deal in Gaza, it's
Speaker 5: hard to imagine Israel saying we're not going to continue
Speaker 5: to go after the ballistic missile capabilities, the cruise missile capabilities,
Speaker 5: and keep trying to push Kesbala back the ten kilometers
Speaker 5: from the border so Israeli citizens can return to their
Speaker 5: homes in the North. I think that also has the
Speaker 5: potential to start to a spiral further. If Kesbala is
Speaker 5: able to re emerge and have its command to control
Speaker 5: more intact. It's clearly been decimated by Israel, but you've
Speaker 5: seen over the last couple of days, especially a new
Speaker 5: barrage of clearly coordinated rockets timed attacks that kids that
Speaker 5: Kasbaala has started to regroup, at least in the South.
Speaker 2: Wow, are you giving up on hostages, Jonathan? I hate
Speaker 2: to ask such a cold question, but it's been over
Speaker 2: a year.
Speaker 5: I'm not giving it up on them yet, but clearly
Speaker 5: I think time is running out in a way we
Speaker 5: haven't seen in quite a while. The reality is we've
Speaker 5: talked about it's about one hundred hostgage over of those,
Speaker 5: the truth is you probably have maybe upwards of a
Speaker 5: third of them who may have passed away. That number
Speaker 5: may be higher, So the numbers are actually probably closer
Speaker 5: to the fifty sixty seventy mark. The question is, frankly,
Speaker 5: how whether or not the Biden plan that was put
Speaker 5: on the table in May and then try to re
Speaker 5: up in July is still the basis for negotiations. My
Speaker 5: senses that it will be, And if Hamas wants to
Speaker 5: cease fire, then that's going to require a hostage deal
Speaker 5: and a prisoner swap from the Israelis. If Hamas doesn't
Speaker 5: want to cease fire or isn't ready for one, or
Speaker 5: Netni Young who decides a ceasefire still isn't going to
Speaker 5: provide sufficient security. Then I think there's going to be
Speaker 5: a challenge. But the reality is Netniyah, Who's going to
Speaker 5: be under more domestic pressure to get a hostage deal
Speaker 5: than at any point in the last year. And we've
Speaker 5: seen some massive protests in is roll over this. I
Speaker 5: think what you're going to see in the coming days
Speaker 5: is going to be even greater.
Speaker 2: Wow, Jonathan, Thank you Jonathan Panakoff, exactly why we wanted
Speaker 2: him here. This is going to be an important weekend
Speaker 2: in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. He's with the Atlantic Council.
Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. Will have much more ahead
Speaker 2: on the fastest show in politics, This is Bloomberg.
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Ken
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Speaker 2: Kaylee. It was right around this time yesterday we were
Speaker 2: hearing from Benjamin Etnyah who following the death of the
Speaker 2: leader of hamas ya Ya Sinwar.
Speaker 6: Yeah, and he while claiming victory over that particular death,
Speaker 6: saying that the score has been settled with Sinwar, he
Speaker 6: did say this war is not yet over, even as
Speaker 6: the US is pushing for this to be the first
Speaker 6: step in something that could lead to a ceasefire.
Speaker 1: Yeah.
Speaker 2: Joe Biden did have a call with Netnyaho as well
Speaker 2: following this news yesterday, and the Prime Minister addressed the
Speaker 2: people of Israel following this headline Let's listen.
Speaker 7: I mean, I'm stating before you today to inform you
Speaker 7: the hamas leader Yaya Sinwar, has been eliminated. The person
Speaker 7: who committed the most terrible massacre in the history of
Speaker 7: our nations since the Holocaust, the mass murderer who murdered
Speaker 7: thousands of Israelis and kidnapped hundreds of our citizens, was
Speaker 7: eliminated today by our heroic soldiers. And today, as we
Speaker 7: promised to do, we settled the account with him. Today
Speaker 7: has suffered a heavy blow. But the task before us
Speaker 7: is not yet complete.
Speaker 6: So for more on what it's going to take to
Speaker 6: bring this war to completion, we turn to Natasha Hall.
Speaker 6: She is centered for Strategic and International Studies, a Middle
Speaker 6: East program. Senior fellow. Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio, Natasha. Obviously,
Speaker 6: the US is hoping that Sinwar's death will ultimately lead
Speaker 6: to a sea spire between Israel and Hamas. How likely
Speaker 6: do you think that is?
Speaker 8: Thank you for having me again.
Speaker 9: I don't see how this changes very much, and that's
Speaker 9: emphasized in Netanya Who's recent remarks, but even Benigains's remarks
Speaker 9: right after Sinwar's death basically saying that the war would
Speaker 9: continue for years to come. I do not see a
Speaker 9: ceasefire happening by the US election time. Unfortunately, I don't
Speaker 9: think Sinwar's death necessarily changes that. And we've also seen
Speaker 9: the public statement from PEMES saying that there issues remained unchanged,
Speaker 9: that they're looking for a ceasefire and the withdrawal of
Speaker 9: Israeli troops.
Speaker 2: Natasha. Joe Biden said something pretty compelling as he was
Speaker 2: getting on Air Force one leaving Germany a couple of
Speaker 2: hours ago, quote, I know how Israel will respond to
Speaker 2: Iran and when that must have been quite a phone
Speaker 2: call with Benjamin Nett and Yahoo yesterday. Should we believe
Speaker 2: that Israel's response to Iran is now set's.
Speaker 9: That's really unclear, but yes, it seems like President Biden
Speaker 9: knows what's going to happen.
Speaker 8: There's been sort of analysts.
Speaker 9: Thinking that it would probably be military installations that would
Speaker 9: be in play here with Israel's retaliation on Iran, and
Speaker 9: that could be, you know, the big scene setting that
Speaker 9: Biden wants to have before the election instead of all
Speaker 9: eyes on what's.
Speaker 8: Going on in Lebanon right now and in Hase.
Speaker 9: Well.
Speaker 6: So as we consider Iran here, it's one thing to
Speaker 6: think about how Israel is going to approach Iran and
Speaker 6: response to Iran's attempted attack from earlier this month. It's
Speaker 6: another to consider how Iran is going to respond to
Speaker 6: another senior leader, the most senior leader of one of
Speaker 6: its proxies, being taken out by Israel, as we've seen
Speaker 6: with Hesbola as well. If It's proxies are weaker, is
Speaker 6: Iran going to fear it itself looks weak? What does
Speaker 6: this do to its behavior?
Speaker 9: I mean, I think everything that we've seen, especially in
Speaker 9: the past two or three months, has been quite humiliating
Speaker 9: for Iran. I would actually say the assassination of Ismaanhania,
Speaker 9: who was sort of the political negotiator of Hemas more
Speaker 9: was more humiliating for Iran because it happened in Tehran,
Speaker 9: it happened within a highly secure IRGC compound.
Speaker 8: This was Sinoar dying in battle.
Speaker 9: Almost you know, heroically to the end, even though he
Speaker 9: is by all accounts aiatepath. So I think I think
Speaker 9: the other things that we've seen have actually been bigger
Speaker 9: challenges for Iran, the Pager attack, the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah.
Speaker 9: I mean, Hesbalalah is really the crown jewel for Iran.
Speaker 9: Hamas is more of an ideological I would say, sort of.
Speaker 8: Ally and helps boost Iran.
Speaker 9: Sort of amongst you know in the world as part
Speaker 9: of the Palestinian resistance, but really the firepower comes from
Speaker 9: from southern Lebanon with Hisbolah.
Speaker 2: It's a really important distinction, Natasha, where the US went
Speaker 2: out of its way to make clear that America did
Speaker 2: not take part, did not help Israel in this raid.
Speaker 2: To your point, it was essentially an accident on the
Speaker 2: battlefield that they came face to face yesterday. Will the
Speaker 2: US help beyond a defensive posture when Israel responds to Iran.
Speaker 9: That that's a great question. I mean, I think with
Speaker 9: regards to anything, at this point, this is US's war.
Speaker 9: The US has to be dragged in to defend its
Speaker 9: ally Israel, and I think that's the scary part here
Speaker 9: because we will see in Israeli retaliation and then we
Speaker 9: potentially will see more regional escalation and more US presence
Speaker 9: in the region and the United States really getting dragged into,
Speaker 9: I believe, a war that.
Speaker 8: It doesn't want to have on its watch.
Speaker 6: We understand Natasha that Hamas is likely going to be
Speaker 6: naming the successor to Sinwar based in Cutter. Sinwar was
Speaker 6: in Gaza. He was very much at the center of
Speaker 6: where all of this activity is happening. Cutter has been
Speaker 6: a media mediator in conversations between Israel and Hamas and
Speaker 6: the attempted cease fire negotiations. How significant would it be
Speaker 6: if the new leader of this organization is not is
Speaker 6: based in a mediating country, in a third party country.
Speaker 8: That's a great question.
Speaker 9: And we call them hotel guys, so essentially people that
Speaker 9: are hold up in hotels in Turkey or kata and
Speaker 9: and aren't really part of the fight on the ground,
Speaker 9: and there's been a few names floated to that effect
Speaker 9: that that could potentially be more conciliatory, one of them
Speaker 9: being Sinhara's deputy and the other one being ka which
Speaker 9: we all know of for many many years now with
Speaker 9: MS although Iran would probably not like that appointment.
Speaker 8: But the the other option is is someone.
Speaker 9: Like Mohammed Sinhar his brother, who who is on the battlefield,
Speaker 9: And it's unclear to me how somebody outside of the
Speaker 9: country necessarily can dictate actions on the ground at this point.
Speaker 9: So you could see some conciliatory gestures from from these
Speaker 9: guys in in Kata, but it remains to be seen
Speaker 9: how people will feel sort of on the ground.
Speaker 2: This has started a whole new round of conversation Natasha
Speaker 2: about whether Kamala Harris will bring a different approach to
Speaker 2: this than Joe Biden. We were struck yesterday to see
Speaker 2: her speaking for the administration because the president was in
Speaker 2: the air on his way to Europe. What is your
Speaker 2: view on this if she were to win this election,
Speaker 2: what would be the difference between a Harris and Biden
Speaker 2: administration when it comes to Israel.
Speaker 9: Well, that's the big question, I think, especially for millions
Speaker 9: of Arab Americans. It's very difficult to tell. Kamala Harris
Speaker 9: cannot really distance herself from the president, so it's really unclear.
Speaker 9: She said recently in an interview that she will be
Speaker 9: different from a Biden administration, but on this issue in particular,
Speaker 9: she's been very very close to the Biden administration, and
Speaker 9: we really haven't seen much daylight between them aside from tone.
Speaker 8: So I do think.
Speaker 9: That it will be very difficult to see any kind
Speaker 9: of progress until the US election happens. I do not
Speaker 9: think that the Netanyahu government wants to deliver Harris a
Speaker 9: win with a ceasefire before the election, frankly, and so
Speaker 9: it's really impossible to tell. What we do know is
Speaker 9: that Trump cut off access to or funding to ANNUDWA,
Speaker 9: the UN agency that assists Palestinian refugees across the region,
Speaker 9: when he was president, and we do know that he
Speaker 9: was quite close to Israel and Israel's interest. That said,
Speaker 9: it's still really unclear to me what really tangible differences
Speaker 9: there will be with a new administration.
Speaker 6: Well, Kamala Harris has maintained when she's been asked that
Speaker 6: she would not support an arms embargo to Israel, that
Speaker 6: she will continue to support Israel's defense of itself, but
Speaker 6: this administration has warned if the humanitarian situation doesn't improve
Speaker 6: in Gaza in just the next few weeks, they will
Speaker 6: begin to withhold arms. Do you think that is a
Speaker 6: real threat, Natasha or an empty one.
Speaker 8: That's also a really good question.
Speaker 9: We saw this letter recently from the Secretary of Defense
Speaker 9: Floyd Austin and Secretary of State Anthony Lincoln basically alluding
Speaker 9: to US law that says that we cannot sort of
Speaker 9: deliver security assistance to a country that does not allow
Speaker 9: US humanitarian aid in and we've seen famine like conditions
Speaker 9: in Gaza, really a horrific humanitarian situation. That said, that
Speaker 9: letter came out expecting Israel to make progress within thirty days. Well,
Speaker 9: thirty days gets us to the US election. So it's
Speaker 9: unclear to me if this is a really serious threat.
Speaker 9: We've seen sort of behind the scenes threats like this
Speaker 9: before and Israel making little bit of progress but then
Speaker 9: reversing course immediately and they're being really no such consequences.
Speaker 9: So I have a feeling, given Harris's recent comments on
Speaker 9: sort of not moving forward with an arms embargo, that
Speaker 9: this might be one of one more sort of hollow bread.
Speaker 2: The Secretary of State is being dispatched, the President says
Speaker 2: to the region, I presume he'll be sitting down with
Speaker 2: the Prime Minister. Natasha, you can let us know what
Speaker 2: you think of that. But I wonder how this timing
Speaker 2: is going to work out. Clearly they don't want Anthony
Speaker 2: Blincoln to be in Israel when it responds to Iran. Correct,
Speaker 2: That's that's.
Speaker 9: Unclear to me because it might be seen as a
Speaker 9: win for the administration depending on who their audience is.
Speaker 8: But that said, you know, I don't know if if
Speaker 8: they're assuming that there will be a cease fire.
Speaker 9: The Netnyahu administration has not been particularly friendly towards towards
Speaker 9: the White House and administration officials in the past year,
Speaker 9: if not before that.
Speaker 8: So it's it's again, it's unclear.
Speaker 9: It's probably related to the response on Iran, but there
Speaker 9: is no doubt that I'm sure, you know, Secretary of
Speaker 9: Blincoln will will aim to move towards some kind of ceasefire,
Speaker 9: at least opening of humanitarian need.
Speaker 6: Natasha, we just have about a minute left here. But
Speaker 6: what becomes of the hostages in the aftermath of Sinwar's death,
Speaker 6: what would you expect.
Speaker 8: That?
Speaker 9: That's a really sort of a tragic question, I think
Speaker 9: one that's on a lot of Israeli's minds, because one
Speaker 9: could think that if there's more conciliatory leadership for Hamas
Speaker 9: outside of of Raze, that they might accede to a
Speaker 9: hostage deal. That said, we don't know where the hostages are,
Speaker 9: and we don't know what the decision making kind of
Speaker 9: chain of command right now ground is in Thauza, and
Speaker 9: there could be a lot of confusion that works against
Speaker 9: the hostages and the hostage release.
Speaker 8: So that's that's the really big.
Speaker 9: Question mark I think here, and I don't think it's
Speaker 9: a particularly positive one necessarily of Anatasha.
Speaker 2: It's great to have you back the Center for Strategic
Speaker 2: and International Studies Middle East Program Senior Fellow. When news
Speaker 2: like this breaks, we like to compare notes with Natasha.
Speaker 2: Thank you.
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Speaker 6: The candidates are heading toward Michigan, one of the critical
Speaker 6: rust Belt battleground states that could decide this election, and
Speaker 6: as part of their last minute media sweep and state
Speaker 6: sweep in these final days. That media sweep is something
Speaker 6: we've paid a lot of attention to this week, as
Speaker 6: Kamala Harris sat down for an interview on Fox. They've
Speaker 6: both been participating in a lot of podcast interviews. We
Speaker 6: mentioned some of what Donald Trump said on a podcast
Speaker 6: today about taxes, which we'll get into in just a minute,
Speaker 6: but he also sat down this morning with Fox and Friends,
Speaker 6: and this is an interesting one, Joe. He said in
Speaker 6: that interview that he's going to meet with Rupert Murdoch
Speaker 6: and specifically request him not to air any negative ads
Speaker 6: about him for the next twenty one days.
Speaker 2: And that's that or interviews with people who don't like him, right,
Speaker 2: Presumably no negativity. Kamala Harris, who pulled almost eight million
Speaker 2: the ratings, jumped off the page. I'm assuming prompted that
Speaker 2: comment from him this morning. Yeah, they all sat on
Speaker 2: the couch together, despite reports today suggesting he's so exhausted
Speaker 2: he's canceling interviews. To your point, Kaylee sat down on
Speaker 2: the online show maintaining with Tyrus and talk about this
Speaker 2: idea of no taxes at least you consider for military,
Speaker 2: for police and firefighters. How many people is that again,
Speaker 2: twenty million. That's a lot of people. That's a lot
Speaker 2: of dollars. Yeah, And so Laura Davison has been watching
Speaker 2: all this for us. Before we spend some time with
Speaker 2: Ben Harris, we get to Bloomberg's politics editor joining us
Speaker 2: from here in Washington. Laura, how many more economic policy
Speaker 2: proposals could we get with eighteen days to go?
Speaker 10: Well, you know, we've gotten four or five or six
Speaker 10: surprise ones just in the past several days, so you know,
Speaker 10: there certainly is time for more. And really the formula
Speaker 10: that Trump has been following here is sort of no
Speaker 10: taxes on X, you know, no taxes on the military
Speaker 10: overtime paid tips. So that sort of seems to be
Speaker 10: the sort of the way he's going about this, which
Speaker 10: really has a sort of political angle here of he's
Speaker 10: dolling out these tax cuts that appeal to specific groups
Speaker 10: of supporters of fans, sort of designed to get people
Speaker 10: either to switch their vote from Harris to Trump or
Speaker 10: to some of those people who are maybe less than
Speaker 10: politically engaged, not inclined to vote, but say, hey, look
Speaker 10: I'm a veteran.
Speaker 11: Maybe I will get off the couch and go vote
Speaker 11: in November.
Speaker 6: And it is a question, ultimately though, of the math,
Speaker 6: knowing that this could potentially be even more deficit additive
Speaker 6: than the math we've already done for some of these
Speaker 6: other policy proposals, Laura. But at this point, with each
Speaker 6: new proposal that is introduced, is it less likely that
Speaker 6: this entire package would be able to get through a
Speaker 6: Congress that we presume could be divided. Even if Donald
Speaker 6: Trump wins the presidency.
Speaker 10: It is extremely unlikely that the entirety of all these
Speaker 10: proposals he's passed or he's talked about will pass Congress.
Speaker 11: This is you know, even before the.
Speaker 10: No taxes on military and police, it was fifteen trillion
Speaker 10: dollars worth of tax cuts that he was talking about.
Speaker 11: You know, just you know, about a third of that, about.
Speaker 10: Almost five trillion, is just expending his twenty seventeen tax cuts.
Speaker 10: Those will kind of be the first place where Congress starts.
Speaker 10: Those are tax cuts that people are already experiencing for
Speaker 10: you know, individual households, households as well as small businesses.
Speaker 11: That'll be the first step in some.
Speaker 10: Of these more you know, kind of politically driven ones,
Speaker 10: the no taxes on tips, no taxes on military. You know,
Speaker 10: it's highly unlikely that we'll see those in a serious
Speaker 10: conversation in Congress next year.
Speaker 2: So I guess, I mean, is it just easy to
Speaker 2: be handing out candy like this, or at least offering
Speaker 2: to Laura knowing that it would take Congress to approve
Speaker 2: of all these tax exemptions. We're not going to get
Speaker 2: this in front of the Ways and Means Committee for
Speaker 2: some time, so why not propose whatever you want?
Speaker 10: Yeah, that's really what kind of the strategy we've seen
Speaker 10: Trump employ here. It's also true that that both sides
Speaker 10: do this.
Speaker 11: Can you say, look, here's what I want to do.
Speaker 10: You see, you know, you saw you know Biden do
Speaker 10: this with student loans of hey, look I want to
Speaker 10: do this, but the courts blocked me. You know, Congress
Speaker 10: won't pick up my bill. We sell this with you know,
Speaker 10: immigration as well. So this is a tried and true
Speaker 10: strategy of you know, here's sort of my vision for America,
Speaker 10: but I need either the courts or Congress to play along.
Speaker 6: Well, Laura, as we consider spending here, or the lack
Speaker 6: of people spending money on their taxes. I suppose it
Speaker 6: also raises the question of how these policy messages are
Speaker 6: being spread here in the final weeks. Obviously we're all
Speaker 6: being inundated with a lot of campaign ads for down
Speaker 6: ballot races residential as well. Should we expect a ramping
Speaker 6: up of the spending in states that ultimately could decide
Speaker 6: this thing Michigan, where the candidates are today, Pennsylvania in
Speaker 6: these final stretches, or is all the time bought up
Speaker 6: at this point?
Speaker 10: You expect that these last few weeks if you're in
Speaker 10: one of those states, basically every ad you're going to
Speaker 10: see is a political ad. This is the most expensive
Speaker 10: stretch of the campaign. They basically buy any ad time
Speaker 10: they can get their hands on. You know, if you're
Speaker 10: in Pennsylvania, you're going to be hit the most. Both
Speaker 10: Harris and Trump are spending the majority, not the majority,
Speaker 10: but that's the biggest ad spend there. Harris is still
Speaker 10: looking at all seven states. She has big advis there,
Speaker 10: but her allies, the super political action committees that are
Speaker 10: helping her, they're specifically focused on the Blue Wall. So
Speaker 10: you know, Michigan, Pennsylvania, you know, watch out.
Speaker 2: Well, with that in mind, everybody is headed to Michigan
Speaker 2: tonight and it's on to Detroit, specifically Laura, where early
Speaker 2: voting starts tomorrow. This is a rollout to get to
Speaker 2: Lancaster and in other areas during the week statewide by
Speaker 2: next Saturday. And we understand we'll talk a little bit
Speaker 2: about this later, but the Obamas are coming out for
Speaker 2: the finale here. Barack Obama will be with Kamala Harris
Speaker 2: on stage to usher in this early voting period, and
Speaker 2: Michelle Obama herself, arguably the most important surrogate that Kamala
Speaker 2: Harris has, will be there next weekend. These are the
Speaker 2: closing optics of this race.
Speaker 10: Yeah, and these are two of the most popular people
Speaker 10: in the Democratic Party and really just public figures anywhere.
Speaker 11: So Harris is hoping.
Speaker 10: To sort of attach yourself to their coattails, get people
Speaker 10: out who remember the Obama years fondly, you know, who
Speaker 10: may be less inclined. We know that she's not performing
Speaker 10: as well with black voters, particularly black men, and that's
Speaker 10: an area she has been focused on this week and season.
Speaker 11: Need to shore up those supporters, all.
Speaker 6: Right, Bloomberg Politics editor Laura Davison here in Washington. Thank
Speaker 6: you so much as we assess some of these policy
Speaker 6: proposals we're still getting from the candidates as they take
Speaker 6: their messages to the swing states. With just a handful
Speaker 6: of days to go at this point until the election eighteen.
Speaker 2: You act like it's late in the game for this
Speaker 2: type of thing to be happening. Well, it got eighteen days.
Speaker 6: Just feel a little late in the game here, but
Speaker 6: of course it's not too late to start putting together
Speaker 6: some math on this, as we have seen a number
Speaker 6: of nonpartisan groups do, and we want to get more
Speaker 6: into the math and potential economic impact of some of
Speaker 6: these policy proposals. And turn out to Ben Harris. He
Speaker 6: is former Assistant Treasury Secretary during the Biden administration. He's
Speaker 6: now Brookings Institution Vice President and director of Economic Studies.
Speaker 6: He is here with us in our Washington, d C. Studio.
Speaker 6: Welcome to Bloomberg TV and Radio. Ben, it's good to
Speaker 6: have you.
Speaker 2: Thanks.
Speaker 6: If we could just begin with Donald Trump today suggesting
Speaker 6: he would at least consider not taxing veterans and first
Speaker 6: responders and members of the military. Some twenty million people
Speaker 6: layered on top of all of the other tax proposals
Speaker 6: he's put out there, things that would not get taxed.
Speaker 6: What is the baseline of how much needs to be
Speaker 6: taxed to continue to fund the US government?
Speaker 12: So more than he's proposing.
Speaker 13: I mean, I don't have a magic number, but I
Speaker 13: mean his approach has been to start with the TCJA extension,
Speaker 13: which costs five trillion dollars over ten years, and then
Speaker 13: to add on all of these special tax breaks that
Speaker 13: really don't have an economic justification. You know, as you
Speaker 13: just mentioned, tax breaks for wages, sorry for tips, tax
Speaker 13: breaks for particular occupations, tax breaks for people who receive
Speaker 13: Social Security benefits, which by the way, would completely undermine
Speaker 13: Social Security and Medicare finances, were already up probably close
Speaker 13: around ten trillion dollars in counting. This isn't a realistic
Speaker 13: set of proposals. They're just far too expensive to ever
Speaker 13: make it through Congress.
Speaker 2: You know, at one point, Ben, we had Republicans like
Speaker 2: Kevin Brady, pretty old fashioned Republicans sitting here at the
Speaker 2: table saying, hey, there's going to be a real important
Speaker 2: debate here. We need to make the Trump tax cuts permanent.
Speaker 2: That was six to nine months ago before all the
Speaker 2: other items and exemptions that we've mentioned since were rolled out.
Speaker 2: What happens to the old fiscal responsible Republicans who were
Speaker 2: going to help usher this through on Capitol Hill, who
Speaker 2: wake up every day to another exemption.
Speaker 13: I mean, there are fiscally responsible Republicans in Congress, but
Speaker 13: they must be pret lonely right now. I mean, I
Speaker 13: think the turning point was back in twenty seventeen when
Speaker 13: Republicans passed a one point five trillion dollar tax cut
Speaker 13: without paying for it, and that kind of opened the
Speaker 13: door for this idea that look, for certain types of priorities,
Speaker 13: it's okay to take on enormous amounts of debt. And
Speaker 13: so that's what we saw, and that feels like where Donald.
Speaker 2: Trump has left the priority?
Speaker 12: Now, what's the priority now?
Speaker 13: I think the party is winning the election and then
Speaker 13: they'll see the composition of Congress, and then they'll come
Speaker 13: back to the drawing board, and if there's a Republican sweep,
Speaker 13: I think you can expect a wholesale extension of the
Speaker 13: TCJA with a few other Republican priorities mixed in, you know,
Speaker 13: to be fair Republicans. Though they did pass the limit
Speaker 13: safe Grow Act coming out of the House, which did
Speaker 13: reduce the deficit. It was basically a combination of caps
Speaker 13: on discretionary spending plus a couple of other pay fors.
Speaker 13: So it's not as though there have been no Republican
Speaker 13: priorities that have made it through a House of Congress.
Speaker 13: It just feels like if Donald Trump's can be in
Speaker 13: the White House, He's been pretty clear he's comfortable taking
Speaker 13: on trillion dollars in new debt.
Speaker 6: Ben reminding us that it's not just tax policy that
Speaker 6: we're going to see a battle over in twenty twenty five,
Speaker 6: but we're going to have to deal with the dead
Speaker 6: sealing again, as you recall back to that deal. So
Speaker 6: there's so much to look forward to. All that to say,
Speaker 6: when we look at Kamala Harris's proposals, nonpartisan organizations have
Speaker 6: two said it will add to the deficit. Perhaps less
Speaker 6: three and a half trillion dollars is what the Committee
Speaker 6: for Responsible but Federal Budget has had to say. But
Speaker 6: Donald Trump would contend her policies will also be inflationary.
Speaker 6: Is there not some truth in that.
Speaker 12: That her policies will be inflationary.
Speaker 6: She's subsidizing housing, it could drive up housing costs. If
Speaker 6: she's cutting taxes, all of these things could fuel inflation
Speaker 6: and make the deficit go higher all the same.
Speaker 13: Yeah, So I think on the housing policy, it's great
Speaker 13: that you brought that up, but the twenty five thousand
Speaker 13: dollars first time home by a tax credit was far
Speaker 13: from the only proposal that she put forward. Sorry, she
Speaker 13: also wants to expand housing supply. I think that the
Speaker 13: first time home buyer tax credit really only makes sense
Speaker 13: if it's done in conjunction with an expansion in the
Speaker 13: housing supply. That's not really inflationary as far as her
Speaker 13: other policies go, I mean, she is taking aim at
Speaker 13: costs across the board.
Speaker 12: Wants to make prescription drugs cheaper.
Speaker 13: I mean, I think that the household costs have been
Speaker 13: kind of a centerpiece of her of her policies.
Speaker 6: Price gouging she wants to go after does.
Speaker 2: Not work, so no.
Speaker 13: I mean, most states have price gouging laws on the books,
Speaker 13: and for most states they are non binding. Most Americans
Speaker 13: live in a state that has price gouging laws, and
Speaker 13: as far as I can tell, they're fairly inconsequential.
Speaker 12: So I think that's, you know.
Speaker 13: Pretty far down on the list of policies that matter
Speaker 13: for the American people. But she has made prices a
Speaker 13: centerpiece of her campaign.
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's interesting because that was a that was a
Speaker 2: big rollout at the time she made it, and it's
Speaker 2: still on the backdrops and it's still on the stump speech.
Speaker 2: It's just when you start waiting priorities. I think to
Speaker 2: your point here, well, the next president of the United States,
Speaker 2: Trump or Harris have to manage a recession in their
Speaker 2: first year.
Speaker 12: That's a great question.
Speaker 13: I mean, what I can say now about the state
Speaker 13: of the macroeconomy. This is like the definition of a
Speaker 13: soft landing. I mean, it's when we go back twenty
Speaker 13: years and reflect on what the FED has done with
Speaker 13: this current economy. I think will kind of be in
Speaker 13: awe of how well things turned out. I mean, we've
Speaker 13: got I mean I can just go list them in
Speaker 13: the highlights. We've got a higher share of people working
Speaker 13: primate to people working that we've seen in over twenty years.
Speaker 13: We've seen inflation come down to an a level where
Speaker 13: the FED is perfectly comfortable with it. We've seen a
Speaker 13: wealth explosion in this country, almost fifty trillion dollars in
Speaker 13: wealth added over the course of the pandemic. I mean,
Speaker 13: you can kind of go on and on and on,
Speaker 13: but we have a great economy, both relatives to prior
Speaker 13: recoveries and also relative to the rest of the developed world.
Speaker 12: So right now, when I.
Speaker 13: Talk to forecasters, most of them say we have about
Speaker 13: a ten to fifteen percent chance for a session in
Speaker 13: the next year, which is kind of the unconditional average
Speaker 13: in any that's not so bad.
Speaker 12: I'll take that at this point.
Speaker 6: Well, so, if all of that is how this economy
Speaker 6: is shaping up right now, does this look like an
Speaker 6: economy to you that needs easier policy or is it
Speaker 6: simply an economy that doesn't need tighter policy anymore?
Speaker 13: Are you talking about monetary policy? Well, I think that
Speaker 13: with respect to monetary policy the FEDS, that is spot.
Speaker 13: It's kind of an enviable spot right now, where it
Speaker 13: knows we're not so close to the neutral rate. The
Speaker 13: next few fifty BIPs of cutting feel pretty easy, and
Speaker 13: then you start getting into the hard decisions. So markets,
Speaker 13: right now, I think it at around a ninety percent
Speaker 13: chance of a twenty five BIPs cut in the next meeting.
Speaker 12: I would probably take the over on that.
Speaker 13: As far as probabilities go and about a seventy five
Speaker 13: percent chance we'll get two cuts between now and December.
Speaker 13: Those are easy decisions though, inflation's way down, the labor
Speaker 13: market's weakening. I think it's pretty easy to vote for
Speaker 13: a twenty five BIPs cut. But after we get past
Speaker 13: the four and a half percent for the Fed funds rate,
Speaker 13: we get closer to four, that's when the hard decisions
Speaker 13: start coming.
Speaker 2: Donald Trump was asked in the Univision town hall earlier
Speaker 2: this week what would happen to agriculture, jobs and other
Speaker 2: parts of the labor market if he followed through on
Speaker 2: what he calls mass deportation. He didn't use that term
Speaker 2: in this conversation, but he also didn't really answer the question.
Speaker 2: Do you have a sense of what would happen to
Speaker 2: the job market if you shut down the border and
Speaker 2: conducted a mass deportation of millions of migrants in the country.
Speaker 13: Yeah, So these are two different policies, So let's say
Speaker 13: kick them out. So both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump
Speaker 13: want to shut down the border. Kamala Harris backs the
Speaker 13: Biden Plan, which you know, essentially puts in place a
Speaker 13: whole host of different policies.
Speaker 2: Actually the Senate comprom Yeah, exactly. So what we're.
Speaker 13: Really talking about now, the difference between the two candidates
Speaker 13: is what would happen if we saw mass deportation on
Speaker 13: the order of something we've never even come close to
Speaker 13: seeing this country. We're talking about potentially in immigration agents,
Speaker 13: going to schools, going to place the business, potentially checkpoints.
Speaker 13: It's really unclear how you're going to find ten million
Speaker 13: people to kick them out of the country. From an
Speaker 13: economic perspective, economists don't love kicking workers out at a
Speaker 13: time when you have worker shortages.
Speaker 12: So if you look at.
Speaker 13: Some of the estimates coming out of Golden Sacks, if
Speaker 13: you look at esimates coming out of the Brookings Institution,
Speaker 13: non partisan estimates, you do find a hit on growth
Speaker 13: simply because we need workers.
Speaker 12: And now is not the best time to kick them out.
Speaker 2: Of right, So that could hasten the recession.
Speaker 13: Yeah, I think they probably recession goes up if you're
Speaker 13: talking about sixty percent tariffs on Chinese goods and if
Speaker 13: you're kicking millions of people out.
Speaker 12: Of the country.
Speaker 6: Yeah, So it becomes a demographic consideration, right, the US
Speaker 6: needs immigration to maintain its workforce. Definitely all right, Ben,
Speaker 6: thanks for joining.
Speaker 2: Us, for having me absolutely, Ben Harris back at the table,
Speaker 2: don't be a stranger. Brookings Institution, former Assistant Treasury Secretary
Speaker 2: in the Biden administration, with his experience in view. Today
Speaker 2: in Washington, I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines here in
Speaker 2: the nation's capital, will assemble our panel. Next. We've got
Speaker 2: an interesting week ahead on the campaign trail. Donald Trump
Speaker 2: behind the Frio latter at McDonald's and the Obamas joining
Speaker 2: Kamala Harris. That's right in Detroit.
Speaker 6: Indeed, we're going to see them at a number of
Speaker 6: rallies in these final weeks here ahead of the election.
Speaker 6: Joe's really fixated on the McDonald's.
Speaker 2: I just want to see the optics, how are they
Speaker 2: going to do this? And does he wear the uniform?
Speaker 6: The question many quest have.
Speaker 2: Only here on Bloomberg's TV and.
Speaker 1: Radio, you're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power pot
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Speaker 6: Thirty ahead of what we expect will be an appearance
Speaker 6: by Donald Trump at the McDonald's this weekend. He's actually
Speaker 6: gonna work the machinery I and the fry cooker. We
Speaker 6: understand Box County. Joe's very excited about this.
Speaker 2: This could be the highlight of the campaign, or will
Speaker 2: it be the Ducacas helmet and the tank moment. It's
Speaker 2: going to be one of the other, Kiley, and we'll
Speaker 2: be there to find.
Speaker 6: Out, yes, of course, just like we were there to
Speaker 6: find out what happened at the annual ADL. Smith dinner
Speaker 6: in New York last night. Donald Trump was there, Kamala
Speaker 6: Harris was not. She set sent in a video instead.
Speaker 6: So let's get a little taste of what both of
Speaker 6: them had to say.
Speaker 14: My opponent feels like she does not have to be here.
Speaker 14: If you really wanted Vice President Harris to accept your invitation,
Speaker 14: I guess you should have told her the bunge we're
Speaker 14: going to bail out the looters and writers in Minneapolis.
Speaker 15: Thou shalt not bear false witness to thy neighbor, indeed,
Speaker 15: especially thy neighbor's election results. And maybe don't sain thing
Speaker 15: negative about Catholics.
Speaker 11: I would never do that, no matter where I was.
Speaker 11: That would be like criticizing Detroit. In Detroit.
Speaker 2: Ooh, and they're going to Detroit tonight. So she brought
Speaker 2: Mary Catherine Gallagher with her Kayleie. Interesting device when you're
Speaker 2: speaking to a massive Catholic charity event. Look, this is
Speaker 2: supposed to be lighthearted, fun spirited, self deprecating, that's the idea.
Speaker 2: She doesn't even show up. Donald Trump criticized her for it,
Speaker 2: insulted her intelligence, the manhood of her running mate, and
Speaker 2: questioned the veracity of her marriage, all in the first
Speaker 2: couple of jokes. He actually had pretty nice things to
Speaker 2: say about Eric Adams and Chuck Schumer, of all people.
Speaker 2: But it was kind of an awkward night. There was
Speaker 2: just as much boom and golf clapping as there was laughing.
Speaker 6: Well, and so I guess it raises the question of
Speaker 6: if this is a win for Donald Trump that he
Speaker 6: decided to show up when Harris Yeah did not, or
Speaker 6: if this were just calling this one even I'm going
Speaker 6: to call.
Speaker 2: It a win for Jim Gaffigan, who m seated. Let's
Speaker 2: assemble the panel and see what they make of all
Speaker 2: of this. I don't know if these things matter anymore,
Speaker 2: Nothing's the same, right. Genie Shanzano is with his Democratic
Speaker 2: analyst Bloomberg politics contributor and a political science professor at
Speaker 2: Iona University, joined today by Brittany Martinez, Republican strategist founder
Speaker 2: Spina and Company. What do we think about this, Genie?
Speaker 2: Events like this, the big white tied dinners are a
Speaker 2: bunch of famous people up on the dais. We've got
Speaker 2: a celebrity comedian as the MC. Does it actually help
Speaker 2: the campaigns to take part in this or did Kamala
Speaker 2: Harris make the right decision to be in a swing
Speaker 2: state last night?
Speaker 16: I think she made the right decision. You know, this
Speaker 16: is a lot of inside baseball who doesn't love one
Speaker 16: of these dinners. It's an old tradition in politics. I
Speaker 16: think it's sad to see it run by the wayside,
Speaker 16: but I do think that is what we are seeing
Speaker 16: because you see campaigns increasingly turning their nose at some
Speaker 16: of these events that they just think it's not going
Speaker 16: to pay off. So Donald Trump with sixty minutes, Donald
Speaker 16: Trump with the White House Correspondent's Dinner, now, you know,
Speaker 16: following Walter Mondale, of all people, Kamala Harris with the
Speaker 16: Al Smith dinner. And I don't think it's going to
Speaker 16: cost her any votes in an election this tight. So
Speaker 16: she made the right decision. But I think for anybody
Speaker 16: who likes old style politics, it is a turn of
Speaker 16: the page.
Speaker 6: So well, well so if we consider what was actually
Speaker 6: said by Trump at the dinner, or what we've been
Speaker 6: hearing from Donald Trump in recent interviews, as recently as
Speaker 6: this morning when he was on Fox and Friends disparaging
Speaker 6: Nicki Haley talking about how resoundingly he defeated her in
Speaker 6: the primary. Brittany, is this a would this be concerning
Speaker 6: if you were a member of his campaign, The way
Speaker 6: in which the tone the conduct is being displayed in
Speaker 6: the final stretches of a race where those undecided voters
Speaker 6: might just now be making up their minds.
Speaker 15: Well, apparently not, because he continues to do it and
Speaker 15: they don't really play clean up on Aisle one anymore.
Speaker 15: I mean, I think that at this point in the race,
Speaker 15: we already know that he doesn't really care about those
Speaker 15: Haley voters. He's said it time and time again. Oh,
Speaker 15: there weren't that many of them to begin with, even today,
Speaker 15: to say like, oh, you know, she's already on the
Speaker 15: camping trail, which I don't know if that's true or not.
Speaker 15: I don't know that I've seen her out there, but
Speaker 15: I don't think it's helpful at this point.
Speaker 11: Does it matter?
Speaker 15: Are those voters undecided? Have they decided to vote for
Speaker 15: Harris ride In or vote for him? It's going to
Speaker 15: be a mix of all three. But the one thing
Speaker 15: I'll also bring up, which is unrelated but still really
Speaker 15: interesting from that interview, is that he said Box some
Speaker 15: folks at Box News helped him write those jokes yesterday.
Speaker 15: And I think that's pretty alarming, and you know, probably
Speaker 15: shouldn't have been done. So it was a very illuminating
Speaker 15: interview for sure.
Speaker 2: Well I don't know who the Republican is here Britney,
Speaker 2: but Donald Trump making some news earlier today in an
Speaker 2: interview we talked about at least considering the idea of
Speaker 2: a tax exemption no taxes on police, firefighters, and military.
Speaker 2: The instant question, of course, is how do you pay
Speaker 2: for it? But I wonder, as the conservative in this conversation,
Speaker 2: do you see that as any different than Joe Biden,
Speaker 2: for instance, for giving student loan payments.
Speaker 15: As preparing to come on and I knew this topic
Speaker 15: would probably come up. That is exactly what I was thinking.
Speaker 15: I think it's an empty promise. I don't think anything
Speaker 15: is going to happen with this, though in theory, like
Speaker 15: maybe it makes sense. My dad is a retired officer.
Speaker 15: I remember growing up and thinking, oh, well, taxes we
Speaker 15: pay go to your salary, so why do you also
Speaker 15: have to pay taxes? And then I grew up and
Speaker 15: I learned the way that the economy works. I don't
Speaker 15: think that it's going to work. We're already trillions and
Speaker 15: trillions of dollars in debt, aid of which he sank
Speaker 15: us into. So no, this isn't a very conservative policy
Speaker 15: at all. Though of course I'm so thankful for our
Speaker 15: first responders and our know, our military, our veterans and
Speaker 15: all of those folks.
Speaker 6: Well, I think we all agree with you on that,
Speaker 6: Brittany Genie. As we considered the idea that this is
Speaker 6: not only a policy proposal that would have a fuzzy
Speaker 6: looking future if he actually wins the presidency, as he
Speaker 6: tries to get all of these things through Congress, it's
Speaker 6: also just worth questioning is it too late to be
Speaker 6: offering something like this with eighteen days to go, Genie,
Speaker 6: who's still paying attention to new policy ideas.
Speaker 16: You know, I think he is throwing everything at the wall,
Speaker 16: seeing what sticks and hoping that it sticks.
Speaker 8: It may be a little late.
Speaker 16: Look at in the all important state of Michigan, for
Speaker 16: the first time, they're allowing early voting in a presidential election.
Speaker 16: We've already had one million people vote. So to your point,
Speaker 16: it is getting late, but he keeps doing this. I
Speaker 16: think the more important point is that we really don't
Speaker 16: in Donald Trump, and I even think to a certain
Speaker 16: extent in Kamala Harris, I have to say, have somebody
Speaker 16: with the economic literacy and prower, we need to make
Speaker 16: these kinds of proposals, you know, for him to stand
Speaker 16: up there and say, just as an example, and then
Speaker 16: her follow suit, if you make forty thousand dollars in tips,
Speaker 16: you won't pay taxes. But the first responder potentially next
Speaker 16: door making forty thousand will makes zero sense, not to mention,
Speaker 16: as you just said, none of this is going to
Speaker 16: get through Congress. So the sort of golf and economic
Speaker 16: literacy we're seeing all over this campaign is very challenging,
Speaker 16: and I do blame that on the party leadership, because
Speaker 16: you look, you do have senators and both sides who
Speaker 16: know that this is hogwash, it will never get through,
Speaker 16: who are saying, oh, we'll look at it when it
Speaker 16: comes to us, if it comes to us. And so
Speaker 16: that's what we're getting. It's the oporization of politics. Everybody
Speaker 16: gets something, and in the end, the American people are
Speaker 16: going to lose out because this is not a serious
Speaker 16: discussion about the economy.
Speaker 2: Brittany Kamala Harris is going to Michigan. I should mention
Speaker 2: that early voting starts tomorrow in Detroit. It's a pretty
Speaker 2: big part of the story. Trump will be in Detroit tonight.
Speaker 2: Kamala Harris will be there tomorrow. She's going to Lansing
Speaker 2: tonight to a GM plant that got big money, like
Speaker 2: a half a billion dollar grant from the IRA to
Speaker 2: convert from ice to EV cars. She's going to go
Speaker 2: there to call out Donald Trump for wanting to gut
Speaker 2: the IRA. Does anyone care?
Speaker 15: I think we should care. You know, as a conservative,
Speaker 15: I don't think that was the best bill. I was
Speaker 15: working in Congress when that passed through the House and
Speaker 15: said it was signed into law. And so though I
Speaker 15: know the IRAM familiar with it. It's because I'm a
Speaker 15: professional wonk and I do that for a living. But
Speaker 15: I don't know that, you know, the average voter is
Speaker 15: really paying attention to that sort of thing. But I mean,
Speaker 15: at this point in the race, two weeks out, I
Speaker 15: think you need to try and hit the other candidate
Speaker 15: on as much as you can, ensure there's a way
Speaker 15: to go about it and share personal stories and anecdotes,
Speaker 15: which I'm sure she'll do when she's at the plant.
Speaker 6: Well, as we consider what the candidate is saying, it
Speaker 6: also in some sense, Genie is about what surrogates are
Speaker 6: saying too, and who else is out there in support
Speaker 6: of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. And next week we're
Speaker 6: going to see both Obama's campaigning in some of these
Speaker 6: swing states in Georgia and then Michigan in the case
Speaker 6: of Michelle Obama, and then she'll be holding a rally
Speaker 6: in Atlanta the week after that. How powerful a force
Speaker 6: are the Obamas at this stage in the race.
Speaker 8: They're powerful.
Speaker 16: We've got, you know, for Kamala Harris, she's got two
Speaker 16: former presidents in Barack Obama, who's been out and is
Speaker 16: coming out next week. As you mentioned again the very
Speaker 16: very popular Michelle Obama Bill Clinton on the trail. I've
Speaker 16: been following Bill Clinton, you know, makes a very good surrogate,
Speaker 16: particular lead to some of these rural areas. He's been
Speaker 16: out with Tim Walls, So it is very useful in
Speaker 16: getting out the vote. But I think this late in
Speaker 16: the game, more important than the surrogates is the ground
Speaker 16: game and getting people to the polls, out to vote
Speaker 16: and vote early. And so that is where the campaign
Speaker 16: on the Democratic side has an enormos misadvantage is with
Speaker 16: the ground game. Of course, you've got Elon Musk on
Speaker 16: the other side trying to help the Republican side on
Speaker 16: that very issue, and they are right to target money
Speaker 16: there because this is all going to come out to turnout.
Speaker 16: And so that's where the ground game matters more than anything.
Speaker 2: I think at this point, who will be more effective
Speaker 2: genie at harnessing the power of the early vote. This
Speaker 2: is something that Donald Trump has confused a bit in
Speaker 2: terms of messaging, calling it stupid. The RNC has gone
Speaker 2: out of its way to encourage people to do this.
Speaker 2: Donald Trump seems to have come around on it. Are
Speaker 2: we going to see a major influx of GOP voters
Speaker 2: voting early.
Speaker 8: I suspect we.
Speaker 16: Will, and that's one of the big questions. Does his
Speaker 16: turnabout sort of yield that kind of response. And we
Speaker 16: are seeing some big early vote numbers in places like Georgia,
Speaker 16: So the numbers are coming in. We just don't know
Speaker 16: obviously how they're voting. So when we find that out,
Speaker 16: I think we will see an increase in Republican turnout early.
Speaker 6: All right. Genie Shanzeno, Senior Democracy Fellow at the Center
Speaker 6: for the Study of the Presidency and Congress. Today alongside
Speaker 6: Brittany Martinez, founder of Aspina and Co. And Republican strategist
Speaker 6: our political panel on this Friday, Thank.
Speaker 11: You so much.
Speaker 6: It is Friday, you're here TGIF. As we are in
Speaker 6: these final weeks of the election, it does feel like
Speaker 6: each week has enough news to pack in two a month.
Speaker 6: And that doesn't just go for what's happening in domestic politics,
Speaker 6: it goes for geopolitics as well.
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make
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