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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, podcasts, radio news. You're listening to the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Catch us live weekdays at

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Speaker 1: noon Eastern on Ammocarplay and then Roun Auto with the

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Business app. Listen on demand wherever you get your podcasts,

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Speaker 1: or watch us live on YouTube.

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Speaker 2: Yeah, you made it to the threshold of the weekend.

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Speaker 2: Thank you for joining us here on the Friday edition

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Speaker 2: of Balance of Power on Bloomberg Radio, on the satellite

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Speaker 2: radio and on YouTube. You want to see what Charlie

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Speaker 2: Pellett looks like, search Bloomberg Business News Live. You have

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Speaker 2: an invitation into our studios every day courtesy of YouTube

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Speaker 2: from Washington here and in New York. Eighteen days left.

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Speaker 2: As you keep hearing, we're counting down to the final

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Speaker 2: two weeks here on the campaign trail, and we'll get

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Speaker 2: to what Donald Trump and Kamala Harris are up to

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Speaker 2: in a moment. Huge questions though about the impact, if

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Speaker 2: any at all, that the latest news from Israel might

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Speaker 2: have on this race. Important optics yesterday to see Kamala

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Speaker 2: Harris out there in front of the podium speaking on

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Speaker 2: behalf of the administration, upon the news that Israel killed

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Speaker 2: Ya Sinwar, the leader of Hamas. It happened right at

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Speaker 2: this time yesterday, right we learned together during this program

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Speaker 2: we have heard from the President himself, Joe Biden in fact,

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Speaker 2: already on his way back from Germany. That was a

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Speaker 2: quick one. Met with Olaf Schultz, had to sit down

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Speaker 2: with Emmanuel Macrone, got a big award while he was there.

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Speaker 2: He talked about this news from Israel along the way.

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Speaker 2: Here's Joe Biden.

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Speaker 3: The death of Leaderjmas represents a moment of justice. He

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Speaker 3: had the blood of Americans and Israelis, Palestinians and Germany

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Speaker 3: and so many others on his hands. I told the

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Speaker 3: Prime Minister of Visil yesterday, let's also make this moment

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Speaker 3: an opportunity to seek a path to piece a better

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Speaker 3: future in Gaza without Hamas.

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Speaker 2: Brings us to the news on the terminal and the

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Speaker 2: headline us pushing for truce in Gaza after Israel kills

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Speaker 2: Hamas leader. We can add another headline while we're at

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Speaker 2: it here Biden will send blinkoln to Israel in aftermath

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Speaker 2: of Sinhwar's death. Is this an opportunity for peace? Or

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Speaker 2: did the window just close? A lot of people asking

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Speaker 2: that too, because Sinwar, of course was speaking for Hamas

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Speaker 2: and it's unclear who exactly has taken the calls right now,

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Speaker 2: That's where we start our conversation with Courtney McBride, who

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Speaker 2: frequently travels with the Secretary of State covering diplomacy and

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Speaker 2: national security for US here at Bloomberg in Washington. Courtney,

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Speaker 2: it's great to see you. Thanks for coming along. This

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Speaker 2: is obviously a big deal yesterday and people are trying

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Speaker 2: to understand what its impact will be. If we can

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Speaker 2: just start with our own relationship with Israel in this

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Speaker 2: wait for a response to Iran, the prospect of a

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Speaker 2: cease fire with Gaza. That it moved the needle on any.

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Speaker 4: Of these, I mean that remains to be seen. Sinwar

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Speaker 4: has been framed as the biggest obstacle to a ceasefire

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Speaker 4: in Gaza. You know, over the last month or so

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Speaker 4: he was not communicating with the mediators in Egypt and culture,

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Speaker 4: and so there's there's some hope tenuous though it may

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Speaker 4: be that perhaps a successor would would be a little

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Speaker 4: bit more amenable to talks.

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Speaker 2: I keep hearing the word opportunity. Kamala Harris used it yesterday,

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Speaker 2: So did Joe Biden, what opportunity does Benjamin Netna who

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Speaker 2: see well?

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Speaker 4: Prime Minister Ntnaho has said that, you know, the fight

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Speaker 4: is not over. You know, Hamas continues to be a

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Speaker 4: threat to Israel, but he also suggested that if Hamas

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Speaker 4: were to lay down its arms, this war could end

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Speaker 4: in short order. You know, it remains to be seen

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Speaker 4: whether the parties come to the table or their mediators

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Speaker 4: do so.

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Speaker 2: But we'll see enter Anthony Blincoln. We don't have an

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Speaker 2: announcement on a trip yet, correct. What would be the

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Speaker 2: timing that would be effective? Do they want him there now?

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Speaker 2: Or is maybe there are a thought that we wait

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Speaker 2: for Israel's response to Iran before he gets on an airplane.

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Speaker 4: I mean unclear. You know, I'm certainly not privy to

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Speaker 4: the planning process, but the President made clear that he

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Speaker 4: was going to be dispatching secretary of blink and in

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Speaker 4: the coming days. You know, it remains to be seen

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Speaker 4: exactly when that is. But I'm sure that you know,

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Speaker 4: part of that calculation on timing is that sense that

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Speaker 4: there is potentially an opportunity, Yeah, which.

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Speaker 2: I suspect is up in the air right now, knowing

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Speaker 2: that Israel is dealing with multiple fronts. Would that be

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Speaker 2: a meeting with Benjamin Nett Nyahu or is there a

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Speaker 2: hope that Anthony Blincoln ends up at a negotiating table

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Speaker 2: with multiple parties?

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Speaker 4: I mean, who knows. I mean, as we know, CIA

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Speaker 4: Director Bill Burns has been leading the hostage negotiation and

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Speaker 4: cease fire deal talks on behalf of the United States.

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Speaker 4: I have no reasona believe that that would change. But certainly,

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Speaker 4: you know, if if Secretary Blincoln is is being sent

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Speaker 4: to the region, he would presumably be meeting with with

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Speaker 4: natal or other other senior leaders.

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Speaker 2: Joe Biden said something awfully important right when he was

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Speaker 2: getting on the airplane. We ran this headline on the terminal.

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Speaker 2: I know how Israel will respond to Iran and when

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Speaker 2: that means a plan is in place? Do we take

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Speaker 2: him at his word?

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Speaker 4: I mean, he has been in contact with with Natano,

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Speaker 4: and you know, if if he knows, I suppose it.

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Speaker 2: Pretty for the President to be.

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Speaker 4: Saying that, it's unusual certainly, uh, you know, for for

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Speaker 4: him to be telegraphing. I guess he's not saying the timing.

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Speaker 2: That's right, he just says that he knows. So clearly

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Speaker 2: they had quite a conversation uh yesterday, and you wonder

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Speaker 2: again what form that will take. Is this going to

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Speaker 2: be uh, a situation where the dynamic changes following the election?

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Speaker 2: The world is waiting to see who the next president is.

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Speaker 2: How About in Israel certainly.

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Speaker 4: I mean, you know, it's no secret that there have

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Speaker 4: been tensions between Nataniello and Biden, and you know, the

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Speaker 4: Prime Minister and former President Trump seem to have a

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Speaker 4: good understanding. But there is some sense that there could

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Speaker 4: be another window of opportunity, both for Israel and for

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Speaker 4: the US in the period between the election and the inauguration.

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Speaker 4: Perhaps that is dependent on the outcome of the US election,

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Speaker 4: but you know, it remains to be seen how much

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Speaker 4: leverage sure either party has.

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Speaker 2: It's always amazing to see what can get done in

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Speaker 2: a lame duck session. Courtney, It's great to see you.

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Speaker 2: Thank you. One of these days I'm going to come

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Speaker 2: to the news from Courtney will not be here, and

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Speaker 2: I'll just know that Anthony of Lincoln is on his way.

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg National Security reporter Courtney McBride on an important day

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Speaker 2: here in the evolution of this war between of course

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Speaker 2: Israel and Hamas that has been underway for over a year.

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Speaker 2: Yaya Sinwar, who was killed and confirmed right around this

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Speaker 2: time yesterday, known as the architect of October seventh. And

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Speaker 2: so this is of course seen as not only a

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Speaker 2: win for Israel, but also for the Biden administration. And

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Speaker 2: we want to add the voice of Jonathan Panakoff. We

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Speaker 2: haven't had Jonathan with us in a moment, and none

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Speaker 2: would be better than right now. He's director of the

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Speaker 2: Scowcroft Middle East Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council. Jonathan,

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Speaker 2: welcome back to Bloomberg. It's good to see you. What

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Speaker 2: do you make of Joe Biden with this revelation? Before

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Speaker 2: getting on Air Force one, I know how Israel will

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Speaker 2: respond to Iran and when is this plan cooked?

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Speaker 5: Great to be back with you. Oh look, I mean

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Speaker 5: I think certainly a reflects frankly better and greater coordination

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Speaker 5: than we saw when it came to Israel strikes against Nasralla,

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Speaker 5: when it came to Israel strikes against Hania, when the

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Speaker 5: US clearly was not informed. I think it also reflects

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Speaker 5: or recognition in Israe that as much as Prime Minister

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Speaker 5: net and Yaho, they want to go it alone and

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Speaker 5: keep things close hold when it comes to Iran, it's

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Speaker 5: just a different category than Hesbala or Hamas. The reality

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Speaker 5: is Israeli strikes in have a huge impact on the US,

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Speaker 5: and there's real questions, right, would the Israelis be willing

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Speaker 5: to strike energy terminals? Would they be pipelines? I would

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Speaker 5: obviously have huge reverberations across the world across energy markets.

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Speaker 5: Would they try to strike the nuclear assets and program

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Speaker 5: of Iran? I think actually having it be coordinated with

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Speaker 5: the US is a positive thing. And I think, while

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Speaker 5: maybe surprising, the President said that he knows what the

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Speaker 5: plan is now, I think everybody just has to hope

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Speaker 5: that Israel sticks to that plan.

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Speaker 2: Well, there was reporting that the Biden administration has essentially

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Speaker 2: talked Israel into avoiding oil installations, never mind the nuclear

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Speaker 2: weapons program, and we've seen the oil market respond accordingly.

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Speaker 2: That brought prices down quite a bit. Whether or not

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Speaker 2: we believe that, Jonathan, do you think everything is on

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Speaker 2: the table here or this will be a precision strike

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Speaker 2: by Israel?

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Speaker 5: No, my sense is and I could be completely wrong here,

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Speaker 5: but because I'm going based on the same reporting you are,

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Speaker 5: But I think given commentary by the President He probably

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Speaker 5: wouldn't have said that if you still had disagreements, And

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Speaker 5: the President's been pretty clear he wants to see energy infrastructure,

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Speaker 5: oil infrastructure off the table when it comes to a strike,

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Speaker 5: same with a nuclear weapons program. That doesn't mean the

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Speaker 5: strike won't be incredibly robust. In fact, I'd expect that

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Speaker 5: it will be. I think military installations, hardware, defensive equipment

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Speaker 5: that Iran has put up to try and prevent futures,

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Speaker 5: really strikes, cyber attacks, my sensors, all of that is

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Speaker 5: probably on the table. I think you'll still have a

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Speaker 5: robust response, but maybe you're just excluding those specific areas.

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Speaker 2: Of course, that's in a How about next door in Gaza?

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Speaker 2: Kamala Harris sounding a bit like Joe Biden using the

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Speaker 2: word opportunity when she spoke yesterday about the killing of

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Speaker 2: Yaya Sinwar quote, this moment gives us an opportunity to

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Speaker 2: finally end the war in Gaza, and it must end

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Speaker 2: such that Israel is secure. Is this just happy talk

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Speaker 2: two weeks before an election here, Jonathan, or does this

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Speaker 2: actually present an opportunity for peace?

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Speaker 5: I think it really depends on Frankly who emerges as

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Speaker 5: the leadership of Hamas and WhereNet and Yah who feels

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Speaker 5: like he's hid an end goal when it comes to

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Speaker 5: what's needed for security of Israel. If Hamas actually elects

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Speaker 5: somebody outside of Gaza, somebody like Halal Hayak, who's been

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Speaker 5: the chief negotiator since Nia's death, then yeah, I think

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Speaker 5: it probably does represent an opportunity that you actually could

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Speaker 5: get to some sort of hostage ceasefire deal. But the

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Speaker 5: reality is if Hamas decides no, we're gonna double down

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Speaker 5: and elect somebody like Mohammed Sinhwar, the brother of Yaya Sinhar,

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Speaker 5: who is one of the chief architects, frankly of the

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Speaker 5: tunnel infrastructure, it's gonna make it much much harder to

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Speaker 5: imagine that you're going to reach a deal even in

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Speaker 5: the aftermath of an election.

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Speaker 2: Boy, that's really something you're an expert on Middle East security, Jonathan.

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Speaker 2: Is this going to escalate into a wider war or

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Speaker 2: is the next exchange gonna be the last?

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Speaker 5: I think it really is going to depend on two things.

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Speaker 5: One is how far Ron wants to escalate, and you

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Speaker 5: got to be under clear that there's tensions in Iran. Iran,

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Speaker 5: it may have the Supreme Leader making the ultimate call,

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Speaker 5: but it's not a monolith. There are various folks in Iran,

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Speaker 5: in the guards who are going to want to strike back.

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Speaker 5: I'm sure to whatever Israel does hard to try to

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Speaker 5: ensure deterrents from there, and there's folks who are going

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Speaker 5: to say, no, we have to end this. We can't afford, frankly,

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Speaker 5: to re escalate, because then Israel's gonna say, look, we

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Speaker 5: did what the US wanted. Now the energy assets are

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Speaker 5: on the table, now the nuclear weapons program is on

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Speaker 5: the table. I think that's gonna be a real debate,

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Speaker 5: frankly in Iran. The second part of this is Frankly, Lebanon,

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Speaker 5: because even if you've got a deal in Gaza, it's

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Speaker 5: hard to imagine Israel saying we're not going to continue

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Speaker 5: to go after the ballistic missile capabilities, the cruise missile capabilities,

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Speaker 5: and keep trying to push Kesbala back the ten kilometers

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Speaker 5: from the border so Israeli citizens can return to their

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Speaker 5: homes in the North. I think that also has the

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Speaker 5: potential to start to a spiral further. If Kesbala is

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Speaker 5: able to re emerge and have its command to control

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Speaker 5: more intact. It's clearly been decimated by Israel, but you've

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Speaker 5: seen over the last couple of days, especially a new

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Speaker 5: barrage of clearly coordinated rockets timed attacks that kids that

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Speaker 5: Kasbaala has started to regroup, at least in the South.

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Speaker 2: Wow, are you giving up on hostages, Jonathan? I hate

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Speaker 2: to ask such a cold question, but it's been over

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Speaker 2: a year.

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Speaker 5: I'm not giving it up on them yet, but clearly

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Speaker 5: I think time is running out in a way we

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Speaker 5: haven't seen in quite a while. The reality is we've

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Speaker 5: talked about it's about one hundred hostgage over of those,

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Speaker 5: the truth is you probably have maybe upwards of a

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Speaker 5: third of them who may have passed away. That number

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Speaker 5: may be higher, So the numbers are actually probably closer

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Speaker 5: to the fifty sixty seventy mark. The question is, frankly,

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Speaker 5: how whether or not the Biden plan that was put

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Speaker 5: on the table in May and then try to re

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Speaker 5: up in July is still the basis for negotiations. My

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Speaker 5: senses that it will be, And if Hamas wants to

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Speaker 5: cease fire, then that's going to require a hostage deal

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Speaker 5: and a prisoner swap from the Israelis. If Hamas doesn't

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Speaker 5: want to cease fire or isn't ready for one, or

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Speaker 5: Netni Young who decides a ceasefire still isn't going to

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Speaker 5: provide sufficient security. Then I think there's going to be

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Speaker 5: a challenge. But the reality is Netniyah, Who's going to

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Speaker 5: be under more domestic pressure to get a hostage deal

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Speaker 5: than at any point in the last year. And we've

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Speaker 5: seen some massive protests in is roll over this. I

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Speaker 5: think what you're going to see in the coming days

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Speaker 5: is going to be even greater.

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Speaker 2: Wow, Jonathan, Thank you Jonathan Panakoff, exactly why we wanted

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Speaker 2: him here. This is going to be an important weekend

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Speaker 2: in Tel Aviv and Jerusalem. He's with the Atlantic Council.

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Speaker 2: I'm Joe Matthew in Washington. Will have much more ahead

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Speaker 2: on the fastest show in politics, This is Bloomberg.

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Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast. Ken

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Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on applecarplaying roun Oo

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Speaker 1: with the Bloomberg Business app. You can also listen live

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Speaker 1: on Amazon Alexa from our flagship New York station, Just

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Speaker 1: say Alexa play Bloomberg eleven.

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Speaker 2: Kaylee. It was right around this time yesterday we were

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Speaker 2: hearing from Benjamin Etnyah who following the death of the

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Speaker 2: leader of hamas ya Ya Sinwar.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, and he while claiming victory over that particular death,

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Speaker 6: saying that the score has been settled with Sinwar, he

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Speaker 6: did say this war is not yet over, even as

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Speaker 6: the US is pushing for this to be the first

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Speaker 6: step in something that could lead to a ceasefire.

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Speaker 1: Yeah.

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Speaker 2: Joe Biden did have a call with Netnyaho as well

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Speaker 2: following this news yesterday, and the Prime Minister addressed the

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Speaker 2: people of Israel following this headline Let's listen.

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Speaker 7: I mean, I'm stating before you today to inform you

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Speaker 7: the hamas leader Yaya Sinwar, has been eliminated. The person

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Speaker 7: who committed the most terrible massacre in the history of

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Speaker 7: our nations since the Holocaust, the mass murderer who murdered

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Speaker 7: thousands of Israelis and kidnapped hundreds of our citizens, was

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Speaker 7: eliminated today by our heroic soldiers. And today, as we

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Speaker 7: promised to do, we settled the account with him. Today

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Speaker 7: has suffered a heavy blow. But the task before us

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Speaker 7: is not yet complete.

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Speaker 6: So for more on what it's going to take to

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Speaker 6: bring this war to completion, we turn to Natasha Hall.

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Speaker 6: She is centered for Strategic and International Studies, a Middle

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Speaker 6: East program. Senior fellow. Welcome back to Bloomberg TV and Radio, Natasha. Obviously,

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Speaker 6: the US is hoping that Sinwar's death will ultimately lead

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Speaker 6: to a sea spire between Israel and Hamas. How likely

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Speaker 6: do you think that is?

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Speaker 8: Thank you for having me again.

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Speaker 9: I don't see how this changes very much, and that's

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Speaker 9: emphasized in Netanya Who's recent remarks, but even Benigains's remarks

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Speaker 9: right after Sinwar's death basically saying that the war would

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Speaker 9: continue for years to come. I do not see a

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Speaker 9: ceasefire happening by the US election time. Unfortunately, I don't

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Speaker 9: think Sinwar's death necessarily changes that. And we've also seen

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Speaker 9: the public statement from PEMES saying that there issues remained unchanged,

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Speaker 9: that they're looking for a ceasefire and the withdrawal of

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Speaker 9: Israeli troops.

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Speaker 2: Natasha. Joe Biden said something pretty compelling as he was

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Speaker 2: getting on Air Force one leaving Germany a couple of

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Speaker 2: hours ago, quote, I know how Israel will respond to

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Speaker 2: Iran and when that must have been quite a phone

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Speaker 2: call with Benjamin Nett and Yahoo yesterday. Should we believe

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Speaker 2: that Israel's response to Iran is now set's.

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Speaker 9: That's really unclear, but yes, it seems like President Biden

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Speaker 9: knows what's going to happen.

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Speaker 8: There's been sort of analysts.

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Speaker 9: Thinking that it would probably be military installations that would

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Speaker 9: be in play here with Israel's retaliation on Iran, and

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Speaker 9: that could be, you know, the big scene setting that

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Speaker 9: Biden wants to have before the election instead of all

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Speaker 9: eyes on what's.

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Speaker 8: Going on in Lebanon right now and in Hase.

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Speaker 9: Well.

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Speaker 6: So as we consider Iran here, it's one thing to

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Speaker 6: think about how Israel is going to approach Iran and

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Speaker 6: response to Iran's attempted attack from earlier this month. It's

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Speaker 6: another to consider how Iran is going to respond to

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Speaker 6: another senior leader, the most senior leader of one of

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Speaker 6: its proxies, being taken out by Israel, as we've seen

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Speaker 6: with Hesbola as well. If It's proxies are weaker, is

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Speaker 6: Iran going to fear it itself looks weak? What does

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Speaker 6: this do to its behavior?

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Speaker 9: I mean, I think everything that we've seen, especially in

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Speaker 9: the past two or three months, has been quite humiliating

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Speaker 9: for Iran. I would actually say the assassination of Ismaanhania,

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Speaker 9: who was sort of the political negotiator of Hemas more

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Speaker 9: was more humiliating for Iran because it happened in Tehran,

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Speaker 9: it happened within a highly secure IRGC compound.

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Speaker 8: This was Sinoar dying in battle.

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Speaker 9: Almost you know, heroically to the end, even though he

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Speaker 9: is by all accounts aiatepath. So I think I think

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Speaker 9: the other things that we've seen have actually been bigger

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Speaker 9: challenges for Iran, the Pager attack, the assassination of Hassan Nasrallah.

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Speaker 9: I mean, Hesbalalah is really the crown jewel for Iran.

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Speaker 9: Hamas is more of an ideological I would say, sort of.

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Speaker 8: Ally and helps boost Iran.

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Speaker 9: Sort of amongst you know in the world as part

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Speaker 9: of the Palestinian resistance, but really the firepower comes from

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Speaker 9: from southern Lebanon with Hisbolah.

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Speaker 2: It's a really important distinction, Natasha, where the US went

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Speaker 2: out of its way to make clear that America did

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Speaker 2: not take part, did not help Israel in this raid.

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Speaker 2: To your point, it was essentially an accident on the

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Speaker 2: battlefield that they came face to face yesterday. Will the

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Speaker 2: US help beyond a defensive posture when Israel responds to Iran.

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Speaker 9: That that's a great question. I mean, I think with

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Speaker 9: regards to anything, at this point, this is US's war.

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Speaker 9: The US has to be dragged in to defend its

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Speaker 9: ally Israel, and I think that's the scary part here

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Speaker 9: because we will see in Israeli retaliation and then we

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Speaker 9: potentially will see more regional escalation and more US presence

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Speaker 9: in the region and the United States really getting dragged into,

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Speaker 9: I believe, a war that.

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Speaker 8: It doesn't want to have on its watch.

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Speaker 6: We understand Natasha that Hamas is likely going to be

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Speaker 6: naming the successor to Sinwar based in Cutter. Sinwar was

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Speaker 6: in Gaza. He was very much at the center of

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Speaker 6: where all of this activity is happening. Cutter has been

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Speaker 6: a media mediator in conversations between Israel and Hamas and

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Speaker 6: the attempted cease fire negotiations. How significant would it be

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Speaker 6: if the new leader of this organization is not is

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Speaker 6: based in a mediating country, in a third party country.

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Speaker 8: That's a great question.

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Speaker 9: And we call them hotel guys, so essentially people that

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Speaker 9: are hold up in hotels in Turkey or kata and

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Speaker 9: and aren't really part of the fight on the ground,

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Speaker 9: and there's been a few names floated to that effect

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Speaker 9: that that could potentially be more conciliatory, one of them

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Speaker 9: being Sinhara's deputy and the other one being ka which

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Speaker 9: we all know of for many many years now with

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Speaker 9: MS although Iran would probably not like that appointment.

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Speaker 8: But the the other option is is someone.

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Speaker 9: Like Mohammed Sinhar his brother, who who is on the battlefield,

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Speaker 9: And it's unclear to me how somebody outside of the

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Speaker 9: country necessarily can dictate actions on the ground at this point.

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Speaker 9: So you could see some conciliatory gestures from from these

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Speaker 9: guys in in Kata, but it remains to be seen

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Speaker 9: how people will feel sort of on the ground.

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Speaker 2: This has started a whole new round of conversation Natasha

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Speaker 2: about whether Kamala Harris will bring a different approach to

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Speaker 2: this than Joe Biden. We were struck yesterday to see

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Speaker 2: her speaking for the administration because the president was in

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Speaker 2: the air on his way to Europe. What is your

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Speaker 2: view on this if she were to win this election,

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Speaker 2: what would be the difference between a Harris and Biden

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Speaker 2: administration when it comes to Israel.

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Speaker 9: Well, that's the big question, I think, especially for millions

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Speaker 9: of Arab Americans. It's very difficult to tell. Kamala Harris

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Speaker 9: cannot really distance herself from the president, so it's really unclear.

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Speaker 9: She said recently in an interview that she will be

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Speaker 9: different from a Biden administration, but on this issue in particular,

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Speaker 9: she's been very very close to the Biden administration, and

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Speaker 9: we really haven't seen much daylight between them aside from tone.

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Speaker 8: So I do think.

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Speaker 9: That it will be very difficult to see any kind

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Speaker 9: of progress until the US election happens. I do not

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Speaker 9: think that the Netanyahu government wants to deliver Harris a

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Speaker 9: win with a ceasefire before the election, frankly, and so

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Speaker 9: it's really impossible to tell. What we do know is

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Speaker 9: that Trump cut off access to or funding to ANNUDWA,

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Speaker 9: the UN agency that assists Palestinian refugees across the region,

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Speaker 9: when he was president, and we do know that he

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Speaker 9: was quite close to Israel and Israel's interest. That said,

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Speaker 9: it's still really unclear to me what really tangible differences

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Speaker 9: there will be with a new administration.

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Speaker 6: Well, Kamala Harris has maintained when she's been asked that

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Speaker 6: she would not support an arms embargo to Israel, that

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Speaker 6: she will continue to support Israel's defense of itself, but

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Speaker 6: this administration has warned if the humanitarian situation doesn't improve

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Speaker 6: in Gaza in just the next few weeks, they will

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Speaker 6: begin to withhold arms. Do you think that is a

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Speaker 6: real threat, Natasha or an empty one.

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Speaker 8: That's also a really good question.

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Speaker 9: We saw this letter recently from the Secretary of Defense

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Speaker 9: Floyd Austin and Secretary of State Anthony Lincoln basically alluding

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Speaker 9: to US law that says that we cannot sort of

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Speaker 9: deliver security assistance to a country that does not allow

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Speaker 9: US humanitarian aid in and we've seen famine like conditions

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Speaker 9: in Gaza, really a horrific humanitarian situation. That said, that

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Speaker 9: letter came out expecting Israel to make progress within thirty days. Well,

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Speaker 9: thirty days gets us to the US election. So it's

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Speaker 9: unclear to me if this is a really serious threat.

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Speaker 9: We've seen sort of behind the scenes threats like this

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Speaker 9: before and Israel making little bit of progress but then

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Speaker 9: reversing course immediately and they're being really no such consequences.

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Speaker 9: So I have a feeling, given Harris's recent comments on

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Speaker 9: sort of not moving forward with an arms embargo, that

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Speaker 9: this might be one of one more sort of hollow bread.

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Speaker 2: The Secretary of State is being dispatched, the President says

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Speaker 2: to the region, I presume he'll be sitting down with

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Speaker 2: the Prime Minister. Natasha, you can let us know what

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Speaker 2: you think of that. But I wonder how this timing

437
00:25:31,560 --> 00:25:34,240
Speaker 2: is going to work out. Clearly they don't want Anthony

438
00:25:34,240 --> 00:25:37,920
Speaker 2: Blincoln to be in Israel when it responds to Iran. Correct,

439
00:25:40,040 --> 00:25:40,760
Speaker 2: That's that's.

440
00:25:40,640 --> 00:25:43,399
Speaker 9: Unclear to me because it might be seen as a

441
00:25:43,440 --> 00:25:46,639
Speaker 9: win for the administration depending on who their audience is.

442
00:25:47,840 --> 00:25:51,080
Speaker 8: But that said, you know, I don't know if if

443
00:25:51,080 --> 00:25:53,320
Speaker 8: they're assuming that there will be a cease fire.

444
00:25:54,200 --> 00:25:59,639
Speaker 9: The Netnyahu administration has not been particularly friendly towards towards

445
00:25:59,680 --> 00:26:04,160
Speaker 9: the White House and administration officials in the past year,

446
00:26:04,359 --> 00:26:05,360
Speaker 9: if not before that.

447
00:26:06,400 --> 00:26:08,360
Speaker 8: So it's it's again, it's unclear.

448
00:26:08,400 --> 00:26:13,040
Speaker 9: It's probably related to the response on Iran, but there

449
00:26:13,080 --> 00:26:16,280
Speaker 9: is no doubt that I'm sure, you know, Secretary of

450
00:26:16,280 --> 00:26:20,000
Speaker 9: Blincoln will will aim to move towards some kind of ceasefire,

451
00:26:20,040 --> 00:26:21,680
Speaker 9: at least opening of humanitarian need.

452
00:26:23,640 --> 00:26:26,199
Speaker 6: Natasha, we just have about a minute left here. But

453
00:26:26,600 --> 00:26:30,160
Speaker 6: what becomes of the hostages in the aftermath of Sinwar's death,

454
00:26:30,160 --> 00:26:31,440
Speaker 6: what would you expect.

455
00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:33,720
Speaker 8: That?

456
00:26:34,520 --> 00:26:37,560
Speaker 9: That's a really sort of a tragic question, I think

457
00:26:37,600 --> 00:26:42,280
Speaker 9: one that's on a lot of Israeli's minds, because one

458
00:26:42,280 --> 00:26:46,639
Speaker 9: could think that if there's more conciliatory leadership for Hamas

459
00:26:46,680 --> 00:26:51,240
Speaker 9: outside of of Raze, that they might accede to a

460
00:26:51,280 --> 00:26:55,480
Speaker 9: hostage deal. That said, we don't know where the hostages are,

461
00:26:55,880 --> 00:26:58,439
Speaker 9: and we don't know what the decision making kind of

462
00:26:58,520 --> 00:27:03,080
Speaker 9: chain of command right now ground is in Thauza, and

463
00:27:03,160 --> 00:27:08,720
Speaker 9: there could be a lot of confusion that works against

464
00:27:08,920 --> 00:27:11,119
Speaker 9: the hostages and the hostage release.

465
00:27:11,960 --> 00:27:13,640
Speaker 8: So that's that's the really big.

466
00:27:13,480 --> 00:27:16,400
Speaker 9: Question mark I think here, and I don't think it's

467
00:27:16,640 --> 00:27:21,000
Speaker 9: a particularly positive one necessarily of Anatasha.

468
00:27:21,040 --> 00:27:23,120
Speaker 2: It's great to have you back the Center for Strategic

469
00:27:23,119 --> 00:27:26,520
Speaker 2: and International Studies Middle East Program Senior Fellow. When news

470
00:27:26,600 --> 00:27:29,000
Speaker 2: like this breaks, we like to compare notes with Natasha.

471
00:27:29,000 --> 00:27:33,000
Speaker 2: Thank you.

472
00:27:33,000 --> 00:27:36,399
Speaker 1: You're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power podcast can

473
00:27:36,600 --> 00:27:39,400
Speaker 1: just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Appo, car Play

474
00:27:39,440 --> 00:27:42,080
Speaker 1: and then roun Otto with the Bloomberg Business app. Listen

475
00:27:42,160 --> 00:27:45,200
Speaker 1: on demand wherever you get your podcasts, or watch us

476
00:27:45,240 --> 00:27:48,199
Speaker 1: live on YouTube.

477
00:27:49,080 --> 00:27:51,680
Speaker 6: The candidates are heading toward Michigan, one of the critical

478
00:27:51,760 --> 00:27:55,040
Speaker 6: rust Belt battleground states that could decide this election, and

479
00:27:55,080 --> 00:27:58,320
Speaker 6: as part of their last minute media sweep and state

480
00:27:58,359 --> 00:28:01,000
Speaker 6: sweep in these final days. That media sweep is something

481
00:28:01,000 --> 00:28:02,959
Speaker 6: we've paid a lot of attention to this week, as

482
00:28:03,040 --> 00:28:05,440
Speaker 6: Kamala Harris sat down for an interview on Fox. They've

483
00:28:05,440 --> 00:28:08,800
Speaker 6: both been participating in a lot of podcast interviews. We

484
00:28:08,920 --> 00:28:12,800
Speaker 6: mentioned some of what Donald Trump said on a podcast

485
00:28:12,840 --> 00:28:15,800
Speaker 6: today about taxes, which we'll get into in just a minute,

486
00:28:15,800 --> 00:28:19,000
Speaker 6: but he also sat down this morning with Fox and Friends,

487
00:28:19,000 --> 00:28:21,320
Speaker 6: and this is an interesting one, Joe. He said in

488
00:28:21,359 --> 00:28:24,560
Speaker 6: that interview that he's going to meet with Rupert Murdoch

489
00:28:25,280 --> 00:28:28,840
Speaker 6: and specifically request him not to air any negative ads

490
00:28:28,880 --> 00:28:31,639
Speaker 6: about him for the next twenty one days.

491
00:28:33,200 --> 00:28:35,879
Speaker 2: And that's that or interviews with people who don't like him, right,

492
00:28:35,960 --> 00:28:39,840
Speaker 2: Presumably no negativity. Kamala Harris, who pulled almost eight million

493
00:28:40,840 --> 00:28:45,960
Speaker 2: the ratings, jumped off the page. I'm assuming prompted that

494
00:28:46,040 --> 00:28:48,680
Speaker 2: comment from him this morning. Yeah, they all sat on

495
00:28:48,720 --> 00:28:52,280
Speaker 2: the couch together, despite reports today suggesting he's so exhausted

496
00:28:52,360 --> 00:28:55,480
Speaker 2: he's canceling interviews. To your point, Kaylee sat down on

497
00:28:55,840 --> 00:29:00,600
Speaker 2: the online show maintaining with Tyrus and talk about this

498
00:29:00,720 --> 00:29:04,160
Speaker 2: idea of no taxes at least you consider for military,

499
00:29:04,200 --> 00:29:07,160
Speaker 2: for police and firefighters. How many people is that again,

500
00:29:07,240 --> 00:29:09,600
Speaker 2: twenty million. That's a lot of people. That's a lot

501
00:29:09,600 --> 00:29:11,960
Speaker 2: of dollars. Yeah, And so Laura Davison has been watching

502
00:29:12,000 --> 00:29:13,680
Speaker 2: all this for us. Before we spend some time with

503
00:29:13,720 --> 00:29:16,520
Speaker 2: Ben Harris, we get to Bloomberg's politics editor joining us

504
00:29:16,560 --> 00:29:20,120
Speaker 2: from here in Washington. Laura, how many more economic policy

505
00:29:20,120 --> 00:29:22,400
Speaker 2: proposals could we get with eighteen days to go?

506
00:29:23,280 --> 00:29:25,320
Speaker 10: Well, you know, we've gotten four or five or six

507
00:29:25,440 --> 00:29:28,400
Speaker 10: surprise ones just in the past several days, so you know,

508
00:29:28,480 --> 00:29:31,520
Speaker 10: there certainly is time for more. And really the formula

509
00:29:31,560 --> 00:29:33,760
Speaker 10: that Trump has been following here is sort of no

510
00:29:33,880 --> 00:29:36,760
Speaker 10: taxes on X, you know, no taxes on the military

511
00:29:36,800 --> 00:29:39,160
Speaker 10: overtime paid tips. So that sort of seems to be

512
00:29:39,320 --> 00:29:41,600
Speaker 10: the sort of the way he's going about this, which

513
00:29:41,720 --> 00:29:44,200
Speaker 10: really has a sort of political angle here of he's

514
00:29:44,440 --> 00:29:47,560
Speaker 10: dolling out these tax cuts that appeal to specific groups

515
00:29:47,600 --> 00:29:51,200
Speaker 10: of supporters of fans, sort of designed to get people

516
00:29:51,480 --> 00:29:54,440
Speaker 10: either to switch their vote from Harris to Trump or

517
00:29:54,480 --> 00:29:56,280
Speaker 10: to some of those people who are maybe less than

518
00:29:56,280 --> 00:29:58,600
Speaker 10: politically engaged, not inclined to vote, but say, hey, look

519
00:29:58,760 --> 00:29:59,360
Speaker 10: I'm a veteran.

520
00:29:59,440 --> 00:30:01,360
Speaker 11: Maybe I will get off the couch and go vote

521
00:30:01,400 --> 00:30:01,920
Speaker 11: in November.

522
00:30:03,360 --> 00:30:06,400
Speaker 6: And it is a question, ultimately though, of the math,

523
00:30:06,600 --> 00:30:09,880
Speaker 6: knowing that this could potentially be even more deficit additive

524
00:30:09,920 --> 00:30:11,959
Speaker 6: than the math we've already done for some of these

525
00:30:12,000 --> 00:30:15,920
Speaker 6: other policy proposals, Laura. But at this point, with each

526
00:30:16,000 --> 00:30:19,120
Speaker 6: new proposal that is introduced, is it less likely that

527
00:30:19,200 --> 00:30:22,080
Speaker 6: this entire package would be able to get through a

528
00:30:22,160 --> 00:30:24,680
Speaker 6: Congress that we presume could be divided. Even if Donald

529
00:30:24,720 --> 00:30:27,880
Speaker 6: Trump wins the presidency.

530
00:30:26,680 --> 00:30:29,479
Speaker 10: It is extremely unlikely that the entirety of all these

531
00:30:29,480 --> 00:30:32,360
Speaker 10: proposals he's passed or he's talked about will pass Congress.

532
00:30:32,520 --> 00:30:34,320
Speaker 11: This is you know, even before the.

533
00:30:34,160 --> 00:30:37,240
Speaker 10: No taxes on military and police, it was fifteen trillion

534
00:30:37,280 --> 00:30:39,720
Speaker 10: dollars worth of tax cuts that he was talking about.

535
00:30:39,920 --> 00:30:42,480
Speaker 11: You know, just you know, about a third of that, about.

536
00:30:42,320 --> 00:30:45,920
Speaker 10: Almost five trillion, is just expending his twenty seventeen tax cuts.

537
00:30:45,960 --> 00:30:48,200
Speaker 10: Those will kind of be the first place where Congress starts.

538
00:30:48,280 --> 00:30:50,920
Speaker 10: Those are tax cuts that people are already experiencing for

539
00:30:51,200 --> 00:30:54,040
Speaker 10: you know, individual households, households as well as small businesses.

540
00:30:54,240 --> 00:30:55,520
Speaker 11: That'll be the first step in some.

541
00:30:55,440 --> 00:30:57,840
Speaker 10: Of these more you know, kind of politically driven ones,

542
00:30:57,880 --> 00:31:00,600
Speaker 10: the no taxes on tips, no taxes on military. You know,

543
00:31:00,640 --> 00:31:02,680
Speaker 10: it's highly unlikely that we'll see those in a serious

544
00:31:02,680 --> 00:31:04,000
Speaker 10: conversation in Congress next year.

545
00:31:05,080 --> 00:31:06,960
Speaker 2: So I guess, I mean, is it just easy to

546
00:31:06,960 --> 00:31:09,160
Speaker 2: be handing out candy like this, or at least offering

547
00:31:09,200 --> 00:31:13,200
Speaker 2: to Laura knowing that it would take Congress to approve

548
00:31:13,200 --> 00:31:15,280
Speaker 2: of all these tax exemptions. We're not going to get

549
00:31:15,280 --> 00:31:17,080
Speaker 2: this in front of the Ways and Means Committee for

550
00:31:17,120 --> 00:31:19,160
Speaker 2: some time, so why not propose whatever you want?

551
00:31:19,880 --> 00:31:22,200
Speaker 10: Yeah, that's really what kind of the strategy we've seen

552
00:31:22,200 --> 00:31:24,960
Speaker 10: Trump employ here. It's also true that that both sides

553
00:31:25,000 --> 00:31:25,239
Speaker 10: do this.

554
00:31:25,440 --> 00:31:27,160
Speaker 11: Can you say, look, here's what I want to do.

555
00:31:27,200 --> 00:31:29,160
Speaker 10: You see, you know, you saw you know Biden do

556
00:31:29,200 --> 00:31:31,080
Speaker 10: this with student loans of hey, look I want to

557
00:31:31,120 --> 00:31:33,400
Speaker 10: do this, but the courts blocked me. You know, Congress

558
00:31:33,400 --> 00:31:35,040
Speaker 10: won't pick up my bill. We sell this with you know,

559
00:31:35,080 --> 00:31:36,960
Speaker 10: immigration as well. So this is a tried and true

560
00:31:36,960 --> 00:31:39,520
Speaker 10: strategy of you know, here's sort of my vision for America,

561
00:31:39,600 --> 00:31:42,160
Speaker 10: but I need either the courts or Congress to play along.

562
00:31:44,160 --> 00:31:47,960
Speaker 6: Well, Laura, as we consider spending here, or the lack

563
00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:50,880
Speaker 6: of people spending money on their taxes. I suppose it

564
00:31:50,920 --> 00:31:53,440
Speaker 6: also raises the question of how these policy messages are

565
00:31:53,480 --> 00:31:56,400
Speaker 6: being spread here in the final weeks. Obviously we're all

566
00:31:56,440 --> 00:31:59,200
Speaker 6: being inundated with a lot of campaign ads for down

567
00:31:59,200 --> 00:32:02,680
Speaker 6: ballot races residential as well. Should we expect a ramping

568
00:32:02,760 --> 00:32:06,360
Speaker 6: up of the spending in states that ultimately could decide

569
00:32:06,400 --> 00:32:09,480
Speaker 6: this thing Michigan, where the candidates are today, Pennsylvania in

570
00:32:09,520 --> 00:32:12,200
Speaker 6: these final stretches, or is all the time bought up

571
00:32:12,200 --> 00:32:12,800
Speaker 6: at this point?

572
00:32:13,960 --> 00:32:15,840
Speaker 10: You expect that these last few weeks if you're in

573
00:32:15,840 --> 00:32:17,960
Speaker 10: one of those states, basically every ad you're going to

574
00:32:18,000 --> 00:32:20,520
Speaker 10: see is a political ad. This is the most expensive

575
00:32:20,520 --> 00:32:23,080
Speaker 10: stretch of the campaign. They basically buy any ad time

576
00:32:23,120 --> 00:32:25,040
Speaker 10: they can get their hands on. You know, if you're

577
00:32:25,080 --> 00:32:27,160
Speaker 10: in Pennsylvania, you're going to be hit the most. Both

578
00:32:27,360 --> 00:32:29,760
Speaker 10: Harris and Trump are spending the majority, not the majority,

579
00:32:29,800 --> 00:32:32,800
Speaker 10: but that's the biggest ad spend there. Harris is still

580
00:32:32,800 --> 00:32:35,080
Speaker 10: looking at all seven states. She has big advis there,

581
00:32:35,120 --> 00:32:38,120
Speaker 10: but her allies, the super political action committees that are

582
00:32:38,120 --> 00:32:40,880
Speaker 10: helping her, they're specifically focused on the Blue Wall. So

583
00:32:40,960 --> 00:32:43,640
Speaker 10: you know, Michigan, Pennsylvania, you know, watch out.

584
00:32:44,760 --> 00:32:47,160
Speaker 2: Well, with that in mind, everybody is headed to Michigan

585
00:32:47,240 --> 00:32:51,400
Speaker 2: tonight and it's on to Detroit, specifically Laura, where early

586
00:32:51,520 --> 00:32:54,400
Speaker 2: voting starts tomorrow. This is a rollout to get to

587
00:32:54,480 --> 00:32:56,960
Speaker 2: Lancaster and in other areas during the week statewide by

588
00:32:57,040 --> 00:32:59,880
Speaker 2: next Saturday. And we understand we'll talk a little bit

589
00:33:00,160 --> 00:33:02,480
Speaker 2: about this later, but the Obamas are coming out for

590
00:33:02,560 --> 00:33:06,040
Speaker 2: the finale here. Barack Obama will be with Kamala Harris

591
00:33:06,080 --> 00:33:09,600
Speaker 2: on stage to usher in this early voting period, and

592
00:33:09,640 --> 00:33:14,520
Speaker 2: Michelle Obama herself, arguably the most important surrogate that Kamala

593
00:33:14,560 --> 00:33:17,360
Speaker 2: Harris has, will be there next weekend. These are the

594
00:33:17,400 --> 00:33:18,800
Speaker 2: closing optics of this race.

595
00:33:19,680 --> 00:33:22,200
Speaker 10: Yeah, and these are two of the most popular people

596
00:33:22,200 --> 00:33:25,720
Speaker 10: in the Democratic Party and really just public figures anywhere.

597
00:33:25,800 --> 00:33:27,200
Speaker 11: So Harris is hoping.

598
00:33:26,960 --> 00:33:30,360
Speaker 10: To sort of attach yourself to their coattails, get people

599
00:33:30,400 --> 00:33:32,920
Speaker 10: out who remember the Obama years fondly, you know, who

600
00:33:32,920 --> 00:33:35,280
Speaker 10: may be less inclined. We know that she's not performing

601
00:33:35,320 --> 00:33:38,240
Speaker 10: as well with black voters, particularly black men, and that's

602
00:33:38,240 --> 00:33:40,280
Speaker 10: an area she has been focused on this week and season.

603
00:33:40,280 --> 00:33:43,360
Speaker 11: Need to shore up those supporters, all.

604
00:33:43,320 --> 00:33:47,080
Speaker 6: Right, Bloomberg Politics editor Laura Davison here in Washington. Thank

605
00:33:47,120 --> 00:33:49,400
Speaker 6: you so much as we assess some of these policy

606
00:33:49,440 --> 00:33:53,040
Speaker 6: proposals we're still getting from the candidates as they take

607
00:33:53,080 --> 00:33:55,960
Speaker 6: their messages to the swing states. With just a handful

608
00:33:56,000 --> 00:33:58,120
Speaker 6: of days to go at this point until the election eighteen.

609
00:33:58,600 --> 00:34:00,320
Speaker 2: You act like it's late in the game for this

610
00:34:00,360 --> 00:34:02,600
Speaker 2: type of thing to be happening. Well, it got eighteen days.

611
00:34:02,800 --> 00:34:05,040
Speaker 6: Just feel a little late in the game here, but

612
00:34:05,120 --> 00:34:07,200
Speaker 6: of course it's not too late to start putting together

613
00:34:07,280 --> 00:34:08,959
Speaker 6: some math on this, as we have seen a number

614
00:34:08,960 --> 00:34:11,520
Speaker 6: of nonpartisan groups do, and we want to get more

615
00:34:11,520 --> 00:34:14,400
Speaker 6: into the math and potential economic impact of some of

616
00:34:14,400 --> 00:34:16,800
Speaker 6: these policy proposals. And turn out to Ben Harris. He

617
00:34:16,880 --> 00:34:20,120
Speaker 6: is former Assistant Treasury Secretary during the Biden administration. He's

618
00:34:20,160 --> 00:34:24,160
Speaker 6: now Brookings Institution Vice President and director of Economic Studies.

619
00:34:24,160 --> 00:34:26,480
Speaker 6: He is here with us in our Washington, d C. Studio.

620
00:34:26,800 --> 00:34:29,080
Speaker 6: Welcome to Bloomberg TV and Radio. Ben, it's good to

621
00:34:29,120 --> 00:34:29,480
Speaker 6: have you.

622
00:34:29,520 --> 00:34:29,840
Speaker 2: Thanks.

623
00:34:30,960 --> 00:34:33,200
Speaker 6: If we could just begin with Donald Trump today suggesting

624
00:34:33,239 --> 00:34:36,880
Speaker 6: he would at least consider not taxing veterans and first

625
00:34:36,920 --> 00:34:39,840
Speaker 6: responders and members of the military. Some twenty million people

626
00:34:39,920 --> 00:34:42,960
Speaker 6: layered on top of all of the other tax proposals

627
00:34:43,000 --> 00:34:45,040
Speaker 6: he's put out there, things that would not get taxed.

628
00:34:45,280 --> 00:34:47,600
Speaker 6: What is the baseline of how much needs to be

629
00:34:47,680 --> 00:34:49,640
Speaker 6: taxed to continue to fund the US government?

630
00:34:50,600 --> 00:34:52,320
Speaker 12: So more than he's proposing.

631
00:34:52,360 --> 00:34:53,759
Speaker 13: I mean, I don't have a magic number, but I

632
00:34:53,800 --> 00:34:57,800
Speaker 13: mean his approach has been to start with the TCJA extension,

633
00:34:57,840 --> 00:35:00,879
Speaker 13: which costs five trillion dollars over ten years, and then

634
00:35:00,880 --> 00:35:03,279
Speaker 13: to add on all of these special tax breaks that

635
00:35:03,320 --> 00:35:05,960
Speaker 13: really don't have an economic justification. You know, as you

636
00:35:06,040 --> 00:35:09,720
Speaker 13: just mentioned, tax breaks for wages, sorry for tips, tax

637
00:35:09,760 --> 00:35:14,240
Speaker 13: breaks for particular occupations, tax breaks for people who receive

638
00:35:14,320 --> 00:35:17,520
Speaker 13: Social Security benefits, which by the way, would completely undermine

639
00:35:17,760 --> 00:35:21,600
Speaker 13: Social Security and Medicare finances, were already up probably close

640
00:35:21,640 --> 00:35:24,520
Speaker 13: around ten trillion dollars in counting. This isn't a realistic

641
00:35:24,560 --> 00:35:27,399
Speaker 13: set of proposals. They're just far too expensive to ever

642
00:35:27,400 --> 00:35:28,240
Speaker 13: make it through Congress.

643
00:35:28,239 --> 00:35:31,239
Speaker 2: You know, at one point, Ben, we had Republicans like

644
00:35:31,320 --> 00:35:34,640
Speaker 2: Kevin Brady, pretty old fashioned Republicans sitting here at the

645
00:35:34,640 --> 00:35:37,000
Speaker 2: table saying, hey, there's going to be a real important

646
00:35:37,000 --> 00:35:39,680
Speaker 2: debate here. We need to make the Trump tax cuts permanent.

647
00:35:40,080 --> 00:35:42,759
Speaker 2: That was six to nine months ago before all the

648
00:35:42,800 --> 00:35:45,759
Speaker 2: other items and exemptions that we've mentioned since were rolled out.

649
00:35:46,239 --> 00:35:49,759
Speaker 2: What happens to the old fiscal responsible Republicans who were

650
00:35:49,760 --> 00:35:52,480
Speaker 2: going to help usher this through on Capitol Hill, who

651
00:35:52,560 --> 00:35:54,240
Speaker 2: wake up every day to another exemption.

652
00:35:54,960 --> 00:35:58,360
Speaker 13: I mean, there are fiscally responsible Republicans in Congress, but

653
00:35:58,400 --> 00:36:00,719
Speaker 13: they must be pret lonely right now. I mean, I

654
00:36:00,719 --> 00:36:02,839
Speaker 13: think the turning point was back in twenty seventeen when

655
00:36:02,880 --> 00:36:06,200
Speaker 13: Republicans passed a one point five trillion dollar tax cut

656
00:36:06,280 --> 00:36:07,840
Speaker 13: without paying for it, and that kind of opened the

657
00:36:07,880 --> 00:36:11,040
Speaker 13: door for this idea that look, for certain types of priorities,

658
00:36:11,080 --> 00:36:14,000
Speaker 13: it's okay to take on enormous amounts of debt. And

659
00:36:14,040 --> 00:36:16,960
Speaker 13: so that's what we saw, and that feels like where Donald.

660
00:36:16,680 --> 00:36:17,960
Speaker 2: Trump has left the priority?

661
00:36:18,000 --> 00:36:19,480
Speaker 12: Now, what's the priority now?

662
00:36:19,480 --> 00:36:21,520
Speaker 13: I think the party is winning the election and then

663
00:36:21,560 --> 00:36:24,080
Speaker 13: they'll see the composition of Congress, and then they'll come

664
00:36:24,120 --> 00:36:26,680
Speaker 13: back to the drawing board, and if there's a Republican sweep,

665
00:36:26,719 --> 00:36:28,640
Speaker 13: I think you can expect a wholesale extension of the

666
00:36:28,680 --> 00:36:32,840
Speaker 13: TCJA with a few other Republican priorities mixed in, you know,

667
00:36:32,920 --> 00:36:35,279
Speaker 13: to be fair Republicans. Though they did pass the limit

668
00:36:35,360 --> 00:36:38,640
Speaker 13: safe Grow Act coming out of the House, which did

669
00:36:38,680 --> 00:36:43,480
Speaker 13: reduce the deficit. It was basically a combination of caps

670
00:36:43,480 --> 00:36:46,480
Speaker 13: on discretionary spending plus a couple of other pay fors.

671
00:36:46,480 --> 00:36:48,440
Speaker 13: So it's not as though there have been no Republican

672
00:36:48,560 --> 00:36:51,080
Speaker 13: priorities that have made it through a House of Congress.

673
00:36:51,480 --> 00:36:53,160
Speaker 13: It just feels like if Donald Trump's can be in

674
00:36:53,160 --> 00:36:55,439
Speaker 13: the White House, He's been pretty clear he's comfortable taking

675
00:36:55,440 --> 00:36:56,759
Speaker 13: on trillion dollars in new debt.

676
00:36:57,239 --> 00:36:59,600
Speaker 6: Ben reminding us that it's not just tax policy that

677
00:36:59,640 --> 00:37:01,680
Speaker 6: we're going to see a battle over in twenty twenty five,

678
00:37:01,719 --> 00:37:02,960
Speaker 6: but we're going to have to deal with the dead

679
00:37:02,960 --> 00:37:06,799
Speaker 6: sealing again, as you recall back to that deal. So

680
00:37:06,800 --> 00:37:09,680
Speaker 6: there's so much to look forward to. All that to say,

681
00:37:09,719 --> 00:37:13,719
Speaker 6: when we look at Kamala Harris's proposals, nonpartisan organizations have

682
00:37:13,840 --> 00:37:16,560
Speaker 6: two said it will add to the deficit. Perhaps less

683
00:37:16,760 --> 00:37:18,600
Speaker 6: three and a half trillion dollars is what the Committee

684
00:37:18,640 --> 00:37:21,400
Speaker 6: for Responsible but Federal Budget has had to say. But

685
00:37:21,440 --> 00:37:25,120
Speaker 6: Donald Trump would contend her policies will also be inflationary.

686
00:37:25,239 --> 00:37:28,400
Speaker 6: Is there not some truth in that.

687
00:37:27,440 --> 00:37:28,840
Speaker 12: That her policies will be inflationary.

688
00:37:29,000 --> 00:37:31,719
Speaker 6: She's subsidizing housing, it could drive up housing costs. If

689
00:37:31,719 --> 00:37:34,520
Speaker 6: she's cutting taxes, all of these things could fuel inflation

690
00:37:34,600 --> 00:37:36,279
Speaker 6: and make the deficit go higher all the same.

691
00:37:36,480 --> 00:37:38,359
Speaker 13: Yeah, So I think on the housing policy, it's great

692
00:37:38,360 --> 00:37:40,400
Speaker 13: that you brought that up, but the twenty five thousand

693
00:37:40,400 --> 00:37:42,440
Speaker 13: dollars first time home by a tax credit was far

694
00:37:42,480 --> 00:37:44,480
Speaker 13: from the only proposal that she put forward. Sorry, she

695
00:37:44,520 --> 00:37:47,000
Speaker 13: also wants to expand housing supply. I think that the

696
00:37:47,080 --> 00:37:49,359
Speaker 13: first time home buyer tax credit really only makes sense

697
00:37:49,400 --> 00:37:51,600
Speaker 13: if it's done in conjunction with an expansion in the

698
00:37:51,640 --> 00:37:55,560
Speaker 13: housing supply. That's not really inflationary as far as her

699
00:37:55,600 --> 00:37:58,640
Speaker 13: other policies go, I mean, she is taking aim at

700
00:37:58,719 --> 00:37:59,680
Speaker 13: costs across the board.

701
00:38:00,080 --> 00:38:02,400
Speaker 12: Wants to make prescription drugs cheaper.

702
00:38:02,440 --> 00:38:04,239
Speaker 13: I mean, I think that the household costs have been

703
00:38:04,280 --> 00:38:07,280
Speaker 13: kind of a centerpiece of her of her policies.

704
00:38:07,560 --> 00:38:10,120
Speaker 6: Price gouging she wants to go after does.

705
00:38:09,960 --> 00:38:11,279
Speaker 2: Not work, so no.

706
00:38:11,400 --> 00:38:14,080
Speaker 13: I mean, most states have price gouging laws on the books,

707
00:38:14,120 --> 00:38:16,480
Speaker 13: and for most states they are non binding. Most Americans

708
00:38:16,480 --> 00:38:18,640
Speaker 13: live in a state that has price gouging laws, and

709
00:38:18,680 --> 00:38:20,760
Speaker 13: as far as I can tell, they're fairly inconsequential.

710
00:38:21,200 --> 00:38:23,200
Speaker 12: So I think that's, you know.

711
00:38:23,160 --> 00:38:25,560
Speaker 13: Pretty far down on the list of policies that matter

712
00:38:25,600 --> 00:38:28,000
Speaker 13: for the American people. But she has made prices a

713
00:38:28,040 --> 00:38:29,080
Speaker 13: centerpiece of her campaign.

714
00:38:29,160 --> 00:38:31,480
Speaker 2: Yeah, that's interesting because that was a that was a

715
00:38:31,480 --> 00:38:33,839
Speaker 2: big rollout at the time she made it, and it's

716
00:38:33,840 --> 00:38:36,080
Speaker 2: still on the backdrops and it's still on the stump speech.

717
00:38:36,440 --> 00:38:38,600
Speaker 2: It's just when you start waiting priorities. I think to

718
00:38:38,680 --> 00:38:41,480
Speaker 2: your point here, well, the next president of the United States,

719
00:38:41,640 --> 00:38:44,520
Speaker 2: Trump or Harris have to manage a recession in their

720
00:38:44,560 --> 00:38:45,520
Speaker 2: first year.

721
00:38:45,719 --> 00:38:46,520
Speaker 12: That's a great question.

722
00:38:46,520 --> 00:38:48,560
Speaker 13: I mean, what I can say now about the state

723
00:38:48,560 --> 00:38:50,880
Speaker 13: of the macroeconomy. This is like the definition of a

724
00:38:51,239 --> 00:38:53,560
Speaker 13: soft landing. I mean, it's when we go back twenty

725
00:38:53,640 --> 00:38:55,880
Speaker 13: years and reflect on what the FED has done with

726
00:38:55,880 --> 00:38:57,480
Speaker 13: this current economy. I think will kind of be in

727
00:38:57,520 --> 00:38:59,719
Speaker 13: awe of how well things turned out. I mean, we've

728
00:38:59,760 --> 00:39:01,320
Speaker 13: got I mean I can just go list them in

729
00:39:01,320 --> 00:39:04,840
Speaker 13: the highlights. We've got a higher share of people working

730
00:39:05,160 --> 00:39:07,840
Speaker 13: primate to people working that we've seen in over twenty years.

731
00:39:08,239 --> 00:39:12,080
Speaker 13: We've seen inflation come down to an a level where

732
00:39:12,080 --> 00:39:14,120
Speaker 13: the FED is perfectly comfortable with it. We've seen a

733
00:39:14,120 --> 00:39:17,239
Speaker 13: wealth explosion in this country, almost fifty trillion dollars in

734
00:39:17,280 --> 00:39:19,440
Speaker 13: wealth added over the course of the pandemic. I mean,

735
00:39:19,440 --> 00:39:20,759
Speaker 13: you can kind of go on and on and on,

736
00:39:21,200 --> 00:39:23,879
Speaker 13: but we have a great economy, both relatives to prior

737
00:39:24,040 --> 00:39:26,880
Speaker 13: recoveries and also relative to the rest of the developed world.

738
00:39:26,960 --> 00:39:29,000
Speaker 12: So right now, when I.

739
00:39:28,800 --> 00:39:31,080
Speaker 13: Talk to forecasters, most of them say we have about

740
00:39:31,080 --> 00:39:32,920
Speaker 13: a ten to fifteen percent chance for a session in

741
00:39:32,960 --> 00:39:35,560
Speaker 13: the next year, which is kind of the unconditional average

742
00:39:35,719 --> 00:39:37,120
Speaker 13: in any that's not so bad.

743
00:39:37,560 --> 00:39:38,480
Speaker 12: I'll take that at this point.

744
00:39:38,640 --> 00:39:41,560
Speaker 6: Well, so, if all of that is how this economy

745
00:39:41,600 --> 00:39:43,160
Speaker 6: is shaping up right now, does this look like an

746
00:39:43,200 --> 00:39:45,759
Speaker 6: economy to you that needs easier policy or is it

747
00:39:45,760 --> 00:39:48,600
Speaker 6: simply an economy that doesn't need tighter policy anymore?

748
00:39:48,640 --> 00:39:51,000
Speaker 13: Are you talking about monetary policy? Well, I think that

749
00:39:51,160 --> 00:39:53,840
Speaker 13: with respect to monetary policy the FEDS, that is spot.

750
00:39:53,920 --> 00:39:55,719
Speaker 13: It's kind of an enviable spot right now, where it

751
00:39:55,760 --> 00:39:59,480
Speaker 13: knows we're not so close to the neutral rate. The

752
00:39:59,560 --> 00:40:03,239
Speaker 13: next few fifty BIPs of cutting feel pretty easy, and

753
00:40:03,280 --> 00:40:05,520
Speaker 13: then you start getting into the hard decisions. So markets,

754
00:40:05,560 --> 00:40:07,120
Speaker 13: right now, I think it at around a ninety percent

755
00:40:07,200 --> 00:40:10,360
Speaker 13: chance of a twenty five BIPs cut in the next meeting.

756
00:40:10,760 --> 00:40:11,960
Speaker 12: I would probably take the over on that.

757
00:40:12,000 --> 00:40:14,239
Speaker 13: As far as probabilities go and about a seventy five

758
00:40:14,239 --> 00:40:17,680
Speaker 13: percent chance we'll get two cuts between now and December.

759
00:40:18,480 --> 00:40:21,640
Speaker 13: Those are easy decisions though, inflation's way down, the labor

760
00:40:21,680 --> 00:40:24,759
Speaker 13: market's weakening. I think it's pretty easy to vote for

761
00:40:24,800 --> 00:40:27,799
Speaker 13: a twenty five BIPs cut. But after we get past

762
00:40:27,880 --> 00:40:29,759
Speaker 13: the four and a half percent for the Fed funds rate,

763
00:40:29,840 --> 00:40:31,840
Speaker 13: we get closer to four, that's when the hard decisions

764
00:40:31,840 --> 00:40:32,319
Speaker 13: start coming.

765
00:40:32,360 --> 00:40:35,720
Speaker 2: Donald Trump was asked in the Univision town hall earlier

766
00:40:35,760 --> 00:40:40,799
Speaker 2: this week what would happen to agriculture, jobs and other

767
00:40:40,840 --> 00:40:44,319
Speaker 2: parts of the labor market if he followed through on

768
00:40:44,360 --> 00:40:48,080
Speaker 2: what he calls mass deportation. He didn't use that term

769
00:40:48,520 --> 00:40:51,440
Speaker 2: in this conversation, but he also didn't really answer the question.

770
00:40:51,520 --> 00:40:53,160
Speaker 2: Do you have a sense of what would happen to

771
00:40:53,200 --> 00:40:55,680
Speaker 2: the job market if you shut down the border and

772
00:40:55,760 --> 00:40:59,920
Speaker 2: conducted a mass deportation of millions of migrants in the country.

773
00:41:00,120 --> 00:41:01,960
Speaker 13: Yeah, So these are two different policies, So let's say

774
00:41:02,000 --> 00:41:05,040
Speaker 13: kick them out. So both Kamala Harris and Donald Trump

775
00:41:05,040 --> 00:41:08,880
Speaker 13: want to shut down the border. Kamala Harris backs the

776
00:41:08,920 --> 00:41:12,360
Speaker 13: Biden Plan, which you know, essentially puts in place a

777
00:41:12,400 --> 00:41:14,440
Speaker 13: whole host of different policies.

778
00:41:14,400 --> 00:41:16,959
Speaker 2: Actually the Senate comprom Yeah, exactly. So what we're.

779
00:41:16,880 --> 00:41:19,920
Speaker 13: Really talking about now, the difference between the two candidates

780
00:41:20,000 --> 00:41:23,680
Speaker 13: is what would happen if we saw mass deportation on

781
00:41:23,760 --> 00:41:25,600
Speaker 13: the order of something we've never even come close to

782
00:41:25,640 --> 00:41:30,560
Speaker 13: seeing this country. We're talking about potentially in immigration agents,

783
00:41:30,560 --> 00:41:33,919
Speaker 13: going to schools, going to place the business, potentially checkpoints.

784
00:41:34,160 --> 00:41:37,280
Speaker 13: It's really unclear how you're going to find ten million

785
00:41:37,280 --> 00:41:39,799
Speaker 13: people to kick them out of the country. From an

786
00:41:39,840 --> 00:41:43,279
Speaker 13: economic perspective, economists don't love kicking workers out at a

787
00:41:43,280 --> 00:41:45,080
Speaker 13: time when you have worker shortages.

788
00:41:45,200 --> 00:41:46,160
Speaker 12: So if you look at.

789
00:41:46,160 --> 00:41:48,319
Speaker 13: Some of the estimates coming out of Golden Sacks, if

790
00:41:48,360 --> 00:41:50,320
Speaker 13: you look at esimates coming out of the Brookings Institution,

791
00:41:50,560 --> 00:41:53,480
Speaker 13: non partisan estimates, you do find a hit on growth

792
00:41:53,520 --> 00:41:55,719
Speaker 13: simply because we need workers.

793
00:41:55,320 --> 00:41:57,000
Speaker 12: And now is not the best time to kick them out.

794
00:41:56,880 --> 00:41:58,280
Speaker 2: Of right, So that could hasten the recession.

795
00:41:59,200 --> 00:42:01,600
Speaker 13: Yeah, I think they probably recession goes up if you're

796
00:42:01,719 --> 00:42:05,480
Speaker 13: talking about sixty percent tariffs on Chinese goods and if

797
00:42:05,480 --> 00:42:06,760
Speaker 13: you're kicking millions of people out.

798
00:42:06,600 --> 00:42:07,040
Speaker 12: Of the country.

799
00:42:07,440 --> 00:42:10,400
Speaker 6: Yeah, So it becomes a demographic consideration, right, the US

800
00:42:10,440 --> 00:42:14,319
Speaker 6: needs immigration to maintain its workforce. Definitely all right, Ben,

801
00:42:14,360 --> 00:42:15,240
Speaker 6: thanks for joining.

802
00:42:15,040 --> 00:42:17,040
Speaker 2: Us, for having me absolutely, Ben Harris back at the table,

803
00:42:17,080 --> 00:42:20,680
Speaker 2: don't be a stranger. Brookings Institution, former Assistant Treasury Secretary

804
00:42:20,880 --> 00:42:24,240
Speaker 2: in the Biden administration, with his experience in view. Today

805
00:42:24,440 --> 00:42:27,560
Speaker 2: in Washington, I'm Joe Matthew alongside Kaylee Lines here in

806
00:42:27,640 --> 00:42:30,200
Speaker 2: the nation's capital, will assemble our panel. Next. We've got

807
00:42:30,239 --> 00:42:33,320
Speaker 2: an interesting week ahead on the campaign trail. Donald Trump

808
00:42:33,320 --> 00:42:36,720
Speaker 2: behind the Frio latter at McDonald's and the Obamas joining

809
00:42:36,880 --> 00:42:38,840
Speaker 2: Kamala Harris. That's right in Detroit.

810
00:42:39,239 --> 00:42:40,759
Speaker 6: Indeed, we're going to see them at a number of

811
00:42:40,880 --> 00:42:43,400
Speaker 6: rallies in these final weeks here ahead of the election.

812
00:42:43,960 --> 00:42:46,200
Speaker 6: Joe's really fixated on the McDonald's.

813
00:42:46,239 --> 00:42:47,839
Speaker 2: I just want to see the optics, how are they

814
00:42:47,880 --> 00:42:50,040
Speaker 2: going to do this? And does he wear the uniform?

815
00:42:50,280 --> 00:42:51,239
Speaker 6: The question many quest have.

816
00:42:51,760 --> 00:42:53,759
Speaker 2: Only here on Bloomberg's TV and.

817
00:42:53,800 --> 00:42:59,839
Speaker 1: Radio, you're listening to the Bloomberg Balance of Power pot

818
00:43:00,560 --> 00:43:03,319
Speaker 1: Ken just live weekdays at noon Eastern on Apple car

819
00:43:03,440 --> 00:43:05,960
Speaker 1: Play and then royd Otto with the Bloomberg Business App.

820
00:43:06,040 --> 00:43:08,880
Speaker 1: You can also listen live on Amazon Alexa from our

821
00:43:08,920 --> 00:43:13,239
Speaker 1: flagship New York station, Just Say Alexa Play Bloomberg eleven.

822
00:43:13,000 --> 00:43:18,080
Speaker 6: Thirty ahead of what we expect will be an appearance

823
00:43:18,400 --> 00:43:21,960
Speaker 6: by Donald Trump at the McDonald's this weekend. He's actually

824
00:43:22,000 --> 00:43:24,239
Speaker 6: gonna work the machinery I and the fry cooker. We

825
00:43:24,360 --> 00:43:28,120
Speaker 6: understand Box County. Joe's very excited about this.

826
00:43:28,000 --> 00:43:30,040
Speaker 2: This could be the highlight of the campaign, or will

827
00:43:30,040 --> 00:43:33,520
Speaker 2: it be the Ducacas helmet and the tank moment. It's

828
00:43:33,560 --> 00:43:35,160
Speaker 2: going to be one of the other, Kiley, and we'll

829
00:43:35,200 --> 00:43:36,200
Speaker 2: be there to find.

830
00:43:36,040 --> 00:43:38,040
Speaker 6: Out, yes, of course, just like we were there to

831
00:43:38,040 --> 00:43:40,880
Speaker 6: find out what happened at the annual ADL. Smith dinner

832
00:43:40,960 --> 00:43:43,600
Speaker 6: in New York last night. Donald Trump was there, Kamala

833
00:43:43,640 --> 00:43:47,640
Speaker 6: Harris was not. She set sent in a video instead.

834
00:43:47,960 --> 00:43:50,239
Speaker 6: So let's get a little taste of what both of

835
00:43:50,280 --> 00:43:51,160
Speaker 6: them had to say.

836
00:43:51,840 --> 00:43:54,319
Speaker 14: My opponent feels like she does not have to be here.

837
00:43:54,440 --> 00:43:57,800
Speaker 14: If you really wanted Vice President Harris to accept your invitation,

838
00:43:57,960 --> 00:44:02,040
Speaker 14: I guess you should have told her the bunge we're

839
00:44:02,040 --> 00:44:05,840
Speaker 14: going to bail out the looters and writers in Minneapolis.

840
00:44:05,920 --> 00:44:09,280
Speaker 15: Thou shalt not bear false witness to thy neighbor, indeed,

841
00:44:09,480 --> 00:44:13,239
Speaker 15: especially thy neighbor's election results. And maybe don't sain thing

842
00:44:13,280 --> 00:44:14,600
Speaker 15: negative about Catholics.

843
00:44:14,880 --> 00:44:17,000
Speaker 11: I would never do that, no matter where I was.

844
00:44:17,120 --> 00:44:20,560
Speaker 11: That would be like criticizing Detroit. In Detroit.

845
00:44:21,840 --> 00:44:24,840
Speaker 2: Ooh, and they're going to Detroit tonight. So she brought

846
00:44:24,840 --> 00:44:29,200
Speaker 2: Mary Catherine Gallagher with her Kayleie. Interesting device when you're

847
00:44:29,239 --> 00:44:33,560
Speaker 2: speaking to a massive Catholic charity event. Look, this is

848
00:44:33,560 --> 00:44:40,680
Speaker 2: supposed to be lighthearted, fun spirited, self deprecating, that's the idea.

849
00:44:40,719 --> 00:44:44,239
Speaker 2: She doesn't even show up. Donald Trump criticized her for it,

850
00:44:44,320 --> 00:44:46,960
Speaker 2: insulted her intelligence, the manhood of her running mate, and

851
00:44:47,040 --> 00:44:51,640
Speaker 2: questioned the veracity of her marriage, all in the first

852
00:44:51,920 --> 00:44:53,840
Speaker 2: couple of jokes. He actually had pretty nice things to

853
00:44:53,840 --> 00:44:56,680
Speaker 2: say about Eric Adams and Chuck Schumer, of all people.

854
00:44:57,160 --> 00:44:59,160
Speaker 2: But it was kind of an awkward night. There was

855
00:44:59,239 --> 00:45:02,120
Speaker 2: just as much boom and golf clapping as there was laughing.

856
00:45:02,760 --> 00:45:05,560
Speaker 6: Well, and so I guess it raises the question of

857
00:45:05,600 --> 00:45:07,279
Speaker 6: if this is a win for Donald Trump that he

858
00:45:07,360 --> 00:45:09,799
Speaker 6: decided to show up when Harris Yeah did not, or

859
00:45:09,800 --> 00:45:12,640
Speaker 6: if this were just calling this one even I'm going

860
00:45:12,719 --> 00:45:12,960
Speaker 6: to call.

861
00:45:12,920 --> 00:45:15,279
Speaker 2: It a win for Jim Gaffigan, who m seated. Let's

862
00:45:15,320 --> 00:45:18,120
Speaker 2: assemble the panel and see what they make of all

863
00:45:18,160 --> 00:45:20,040
Speaker 2: of this. I don't know if these things matter anymore,

864
00:45:20,120 --> 00:45:22,880
Speaker 2: Nothing's the same, right. Genie Shanzano is with his Democratic

865
00:45:22,880 --> 00:45:28,279
Speaker 2: analyst Bloomberg politics contributor and a political science professor at

866
00:45:28,280 --> 00:45:32,080
Speaker 2: Iona University, joined today by Brittany Martinez, Republican strategist founder

867
00:45:32,440 --> 00:45:36,280
Speaker 2: Spina and Company. What do we think about this, Genie?

868
00:45:36,280 --> 00:45:38,600
Speaker 2: Events like this, the big white tied dinners are a

869
00:45:38,600 --> 00:45:40,920
Speaker 2: bunch of famous people up on the dais. We've got

870
00:45:40,960 --> 00:45:44,759
Speaker 2: a celebrity comedian as the MC. Does it actually help

871
00:45:44,840 --> 00:45:47,400
Speaker 2: the campaigns to take part in this or did Kamala

872
00:45:47,480 --> 00:45:50,080
Speaker 2: Harris make the right decision to be in a swing

873
00:45:50,120 --> 00:45:50,839
Speaker 2: state last night?

874
00:45:52,360 --> 00:45:54,520
Speaker 16: I think she made the right decision. You know, this

875
00:45:54,719 --> 00:45:58,319
Speaker 16: is a lot of inside baseball who doesn't love one

876
00:45:58,360 --> 00:46:01,799
Speaker 16: of these dinners. It's an old tradition in politics. I

877
00:46:01,800 --> 00:46:04,120
Speaker 16: think it's sad to see it run by the wayside,

878
00:46:04,280 --> 00:46:06,320
Speaker 16: but I do think that is what we are seeing

879
00:46:06,440 --> 00:46:10,560
Speaker 16: because you see campaigns increasingly turning their nose at some

880
00:46:10,680 --> 00:46:12,759
Speaker 16: of these events that they just think it's not going

881
00:46:12,840 --> 00:46:15,759
Speaker 16: to pay off. So Donald Trump with sixty minutes, Donald

882
00:46:15,800 --> 00:46:19,000
Speaker 16: Trump with the White House Correspondent's Dinner, now, you know,

883
00:46:19,080 --> 00:46:21,920
Speaker 16: following Walter Mondale, of all people, Kamala Harris with the

884
00:46:21,920 --> 00:46:24,000
Speaker 16: Al Smith dinner. And I don't think it's going to

885
00:46:24,080 --> 00:46:26,480
Speaker 16: cost her any votes in an election this tight. So

886
00:46:26,840 --> 00:46:29,200
Speaker 16: she made the right decision. But I think for anybody

887
00:46:29,239 --> 00:46:31,920
Speaker 16: who likes old style politics, it is a turn of

888
00:46:32,000 --> 00:46:32,440
Speaker 16: the page.

889
00:46:32,440 --> 00:46:37,280
Speaker 6: So well, well so if we consider what was actually

890
00:46:37,320 --> 00:46:39,200
Speaker 6: said by Trump at the dinner, or what we've been

891
00:46:39,200 --> 00:46:42,400
Speaker 6: hearing from Donald Trump in recent interviews, as recently as

892
00:46:42,440 --> 00:46:44,840
Speaker 6: this morning when he was on Fox and Friends disparaging

893
00:46:44,920 --> 00:46:48,759
Speaker 6: Nicki Haley talking about how resoundingly he defeated her in

894
00:46:48,840 --> 00:46:52,520
Speaker 6: the primary. Brittany, is this a would this be concerning

895
00:46:52,640 --> 00:46:55,200
Speaker 6: if you were a member of his campaign, The way

896
00:46:55,200 --> 00:46:59,759
Speaker 6: in which the tone the conduct is being displayed in

897
00:46:59,800 --> 00:47:03,280
Speaker 6: the final stretches of a race where those undecided voters

898
00:47:03,360 --> 00:47:05,000
Speaker 6: might just now be making up their minds.

899
00:47:06,520 --> 00:47:09,080
Speaker 15: Well, apparently not, because he continues to do it and

900
00:47:09,120 --> 00:47:12,120
Speaker 15: they don't really play clean up on Aisle one anymore.

901
00:47:12,360 --> 00:47:14,759
Speaker 15: I mean, I think that at this point in the race,

902
00:47:15,040 --> 00:47:16,839
Speaker 15: we already know that he doesn't really care about those

903
00:47:16,920 --> 00:47:19,440
Speaker 15: Haley voters. He's said it time and time again. Oh,

904
00:47:19,520 --> 00:47:21,680
Speaker 15: there weren't that many of them to begin with, even today,

905
00:47:21,680 --> 00:47:24,799
Speaker 15: to say like, oh, you know, she's already on the

906
00:47:24,800 --> 00:47:26,759
Speaker 15: camping trail, which I don't know if that's true or not.

907
00:47:26,920 --> 00:47:28,799
Speaker 15: I don't know that I've seen her out there, but

908
00:47:28,920 --> 00:47:31,320
Speaker 15: I don't think it's helpful at this point.

909
00:47:31,400 --> 00:47:32,040
Speaker 11: Does it matter?

910
00:47:32,160 --> 00:47:35,480
Speaker 15: Are those voters undecided? Have they decided to vote for

911
00:47:35,480 --> 00:47:37,239
Speaker 15: Harris ride In or vote for him? It's going to

912
00:47:37,280 --> 00:47:39,160
Speaker 15: be a mix of all three. But the one thing

913
00:47:39,200 --> 00:47:41,839
Speaker 15: I'll also bring up, which is unrelated but still really

914
00:47:41,840 --> 00:47:44,120
Speaker 15: interesting from that interview, is that he said Box some

915
00:47:44,239 --> 00:47:47,920
Speaker 15: folks at Box News helped him write those jokes yesterday.

916
00:47:47,960 --> 00:47:51,120
Speaker 15: And I think that's pretty alarming, and you know, probably

917
00:47:51,160 --> 00:47:53,319
Speaker 15: shouldn't have been done. So it was a very illuminating

918
00:47:53,320 --> 00:47:54,160
Speaker 15: interview for sure.

919
00:47:55,880 --> 00:47:58,680
Speaker 2: Well I don't know who the Republican is here Britney,

920
00:47:58,800 --> 00:48:02,160
Speaker 2: but Donald Trump making some news earlier today in an

921
00:48:02,160 --> 00:48:05,640
Speaker 2: interview we talked about at least considering the idea of

922
00:48:05,760 --> 00:48:11,480
Speaker 2: a tax exemption no taxes on police, firefighters, and military.

923
00:48:12,760 --> 00:48:15,279
Speaker 2: The instant question, of course, is how do you pay

924
00:48:15,360 --> 00:48:18,839
Speaker 2: for it? But I wonder, as the conservative in this conversation,

925
00:48:19,000 --> 00:48:22,120
Speaker 2: do you see that as any different than Joe Biden,

926
00:48:22,200 --> 00:48:28,439
Speaker 2: for instance, for giving student loan payments.

927
00:48:26,160 --> 00:48:28,839
Speaker 15: As preparing to come on and I knew this topic

928
00:48:28,880 --> 00:48:31,640
Speaker 15: would probably come up. That is exactly what I was thinking.

929
00:48:31,719 --> 00:48:33,680
Speaker 15: I think it's an empty promise. I don't think anything

930
00:48:33,719 --> 00:48:36,640
Speaker 15: is going to happen with this, though in theory, like

931
00:48:36,920 --> 00:48:38,880
Speaker 15: maybe it makes sense. My dad is a retired officer.

932
00:48:38,920 --> 00:48:41,000
Speaker 15: I remember growing up and thinking, oh, well, taxes we

933
00:48:41,000 --> 00:48:43,479
Speaker 15: pay go to your salary, so why do you also

934
00:48:43,520 --> 00:48:45,120
Speaker 15: have to pay taxes? And then I grew up and

935
00:48:45,160 --> 00:48:47,839
Speaker 15: I learned the way that the economy works. I don't

936
00:48:47,840 --> 00:48:50,080
Speaker 15: think that it's going to work. We're already trillions and

937
00:48:50,120 --> 00:48:53,399
Speaker 15: trillions of dollars in debt, aid of which he sank

938
00:48:53,480 --> 00:48:56,040
Speaker 15: us into. So no, this isn't a very conservative policy

939
00:48:56,040 --> 00:48:58,319
Speaker 15: at all. Though of course I'm so thankful for our

940
00:48:58,360 --> 00:49:01,880
Speaker 15: first responders and our know, our military, our veterans and

941
00:49:01,920 --> 00:49:02,800
Speaker 15: all of those folks.

942
00:49:04,520 --> 00:49:06,920
Speaker 6: Well, I think we all agree with you on that,

943
00:49:07,040 --> 00:49:10,040
Speaker 6: Brittany Genie. As we considered the idea that this is

944
00:49:10,080 --> 00:49:12,880
Speaker 6: not only a policy proposal that would have a fuzzy

945
00:49:12,920 --> 00:49:15,400
Speaker 6: looking future if he actually wins the presidency, as he

946
00:49:15,440 --> 00:49:18,520
Speaker 6: tries to get all of these things through Congress, it's

947
00:49:18,560 --> 00:49:20,759
Speaker 6: also just worth questioning is it too late to be

948
00:49:20,840 --> 00:49:24,920
Speaker 6: offering something like this with eighteen days to go, Genie,

949
00:49:24,920 --> 00:49:29,040
Speaker 6: who's still paying attention to new policy ideas.

950
00:49:29,080 --> 00:49:31,719
Speaker 16: You know, I think he is throwing everything at the wall,

951
00:49:31,800 --> 00:49:35,480
Speaker 16: seeing what sticks and hoping that it sticks.

952
00:49:36,000 --> 00:49:37,080
Speaker 8: It may be a little late.

953
00:49:37,120 --> 00:49:39,560
Speaker 16: Look at in the all important state of Michigan, for

954
00:49:39,600 --> 00:49:42,560
Speaker 16: the first time, they're allowing early voting in a presidential election.

955
00:49:42,640 --> 00:49:45,760
Speaker 16: We've already had one million people vote. So to your point,

956
00:49:45,800 --> 00:49:48,560
Speaker 16: it is getting late, but he keeps doing this. I

957
00:49:48,680 --> 00:49:52,360
Speaker 16: think the more important point is that we really don't

958
00:49:52,520 --> 00:49:54,920
Speaker 16: in Donald Trump, and I even think to a certain

959
00:49:54,920 --> 00:49:57,920
Speaker 16: extent in Kamala Harris, I have to say, have somebody

960
00:49:57,960 --> 00:50:02,000
Speaker 16: with the economic literacy and prower, we need to make

961
00:50:02,040 --> 00:50:05,600
Speaker 16: these kinds of proposals, you know, for him to stand

962
00:50:05,719 --> 00:50:08,120
Speaker 16: up there and say, just as an example, and then

963
00:50:08,160 --> 00:50:11,360
Speaker 16: her follow suit, if you make forty thousand dollars in tips,

964
00:50:11,400 --> 00:50:14,480
Speaker 16: you won't pay taxes. But the first responder potentially next

965
00:50:14,520 --> 00:50:18,439
Speaker 16: door making forty thousand will makes zero sense, not to mention,

966
00:50:18,560 --> 00:50:20,560
Speaker 16: as you just said, none of this is going to

967
00:50:20,600 --> 00:50:24,239
Speaker 16: get through Congress. So the sort of golf and economic

968
00:50:24,320 --> 00:50:27,400
Speaker 16: literacy we're seeing all over this campaign is very challenging,

969
00:50:27,680 --> 00:50:30,440
Speaker 16: and I do blame that on the party leadership, because

970
00:50:30,680 --> 00:50:33,719
Speaker 16: you look, you do have senators and both sides who

971
00:50:33,760 --> 00:50:36,000
Speaker 16: know that this is hogwash, it will never get through,

972
00:50:36,200 --> 00:50:38,200
Speaker 16: who are saying, oh, we'll look at it when it

973
00:50:38,239 --> 00:50:40,719
Speaker 16: comes to us, if it comes to us. And so

974
00:50:41,040 --> 00:50:44,320
Speaker 16: that's what we're getting. It's the oporization of politics. Everybody

975
00:50:44,360 --> 00:50:46,839
Speaker 16: gets something, and in the end, the American people are

976
00:50:46,840 --> 00:50:49,320
Speaker 16: going to lose out because this is not a serious

977
00:50:49,360 --> 00:50:50,840
Speaker 16: discussion about the economy.

978
00:50:52,040 --> 00:50:55,399
Speaker 2: Brittany Kamala Harris is going to Michigan. I should mention

979
00:50:55,480 --> 00:50:58,000
Speaker 2: that early voting starts tomorrow in Detroit. It's a pretty

980
00:50:58,000 --> 00:51:00,800
Speaker 2: big part of the story. Trump will be in Detroit tonight.

981
00:51:01,400 --> 00:51:04,840
Speaker 2: Kamala Harris will be there tomorrow. She's going to Lansing

982
00:51:04,920 --> 00:51:08,360
Speaker 2: tonight to a GM plant that got big money, like

983
00:51:08,360 --> 00:51:10,719
Speaker 2: a half a billion dollar grant from the IRA to

984
00:51:10,800 --> 00:51:14,640
Speaker 2: convert from ice to EV cars. She's going to go

985
00:51:14,719 --> 00:51:17,400
Speaker 2: there to call out Donald Trump for wanting to gut

986
00:51:17,520 --> 00:51:19,200
Speaker 2: the IRA. Does anyone care?

987
00:51:21,920 --> 00:51:24,440
Speaker 15: I think we should care. You know, as a conservative,

988
00:51:24,520 --> 00:51:26,160
Speaker 15: I don't think that was the best bill. I was

989
00:51:26,200 --> 00:51:28,600
Speaker 15: working in Congress when that passed through the House and

990
00:51:28,600 --> 00:51:31,920
Speaker 15: said it was signed into law. And so though I

991
00:51:32,000 --> 00:51:35,279
Speaker 15: know the IRAM familiar with it. It's because I'm a

992
00:51:35,320 --> 00:51:37,920
Speaker 15: professional wonk and I do that for a living. But

993
00:51:37,960 --> 00:51:40,279
Speaker 15: I don't know that, you know, the average voter is

994
00:51:40,280 --> 00:51:42,919
Speaker 15: really paying attention to that sort of thing. But I mean,

995
00:51:43,239 --> 00:51:44,920
Speaker 15: at this point in the race, two weeks out, I

996
00:51:44,920 --> 00:51:47,280
Speaker 15: think you need to try and hit the other candidate

997
00:51:47,320 --> 00:51:49,799
Speaker 15: on as much as you can, ensure there's a way

998
00:51:49,840 --> 00:51:52,840
Speaker 15: to go about it and share personal stories and anecdotes,

999
00:51:52,840 --> 00:51:55,080
Speaker 15: which I'm sure she'll do when she's at the plant.

1000
00:51:57,200 --> 00:51:59,600
Speaker 6: Well, as we consider what the candidate is saying, it

1001
00:51:59,600 --> 00:52:02,600
Speaker 6: also in some sense, Genie is about what surrogates are

1002
00:52:02,600 --> 00:52:04,920
Speaker 6: saying too, and who else is out there in support

1003
00:52:05,520 --> 00:52:08,120
Speaker 6: of Donald Trump and Kamala Harris. And next week we're

1004
00:52:08,120 --> 00:52:12,759
Speaker 6: going to see both Obama's campaigning in some of these

1005
00:52:12,760 --> 00:52:15,680
Speaker 6: swing states in Georgia and then Michigan in the case

1006
00:52:15,719 --> 00:52:18,120
Speaker 6: of Michelle Obama, and then she'll be holding a rally

1007
00:52:18,160 --> 00:52:20,880
Speaker 6: in Atlanta the week after that. How powerful a force

1008
00:52:21,360 --> 00:52:23,200
Speaker 6: are the Obamas at this stage in the race.

1009
00:52:24,560 --> 00:52:25,360
Speaker 8: They're powerful.

1010
00:52:25,440 --> 00:52:27,799
Speaker 16: We've got, you know, for Kamala Harris, she's got two

1011
00:52:27,880 --> 00:52:30,719
Speaker 16: former presidents in Barack Obama, who's been out and is

1012
00:52:30,719 --> 00:52:33,120
Speaker 16: coming out next week. As you mentioned again the very

1013
00:52:33,239 --> 00:52:36,600
Speaker 16: very popular Michelle Obama Bill Clinton on the trail. I've

1014
00:52:36,600 --> 00:52:40,360
Speaker 16: been following Bill Clinton, you know, makes a very good surrogate,

1015
00:52:40,440 --> 00:52:43,480
Speaker 16: particular lead to some of these rural areas. He's been

1016
00:52:43,520 --> 00:52:46,160
Speaker 16: out with Tim Walls, So it is very useful in

1017
00:52:46,200 --> 00:52:48,440
Speaker 16: getting out the vote. But I think this late in

1018
00:52:48,520 --> 00:52:51,880
Speaker 16: the game, more important than the surrogates is the ground

1019
00:52:51,920 --> 00:52:55,120
Speaker 16: game and getting people to the polls, out to vote

1020
00:52:55,120 --> 00:52:58,200
Speaker 16: and vote early. And so that is where the campaign

1021
00:52:58,239 --> 00:53:01,560
Speaker 16: on the Democratic side has an enormos misadvantage is with

1022
00:53:01,760 --> 00:53:04,080
Speaker 16: the ground game. Of course, you've got Elon Musk on

1023
00:53:04,080 --> 00:53:06,960
Speaker 16: the other side trying to help the Republican side on

1024
00:53:07,040 --> 00:53:09,960
Speaker 16: that very issue, and they are right to target money

1025
00:53:09,960 --> 00:53:13,080
Speaker 16: there because this is all going to come out to turnout.

1026
00:53:13,120 --> 00:53:16,080
Speaker 16: And so that's where the ground game matters more than anything.

1027
00:53:16,120 --> 00:53:19,360
Speaker 2: I think at this point, who will be more effective

1028
00:53:19,400 --> 00:53:23,160
Speaker 2: genie at harnessing the power of the early vote. This

1029
00:53:23,200 --> 00:53:26,319
Speaker 2: is something that Donald Trump has confused a bit in

1030
00:53:26,400 --> 00:53:29,319
Speaker 2: terms of messaging, calling it stupid. The RNC has gone

1031
00:53:29,320 --> 00:53:31,440
Speaker 2: out of its way to encourage people to do this.

1032
00:53:31,520 --> 00:53:34,600
Speaker 2: Donald Trump seems to have come around on it. Are

1033
00:53:34,640 --> 00:53:37,520
Speaker 2: we going to see a major influx of GOP voters

1034
00:53:37,800 --> 00:53:38,400
Speaker 2: voting early.

1035
00:53:39,800 --> 00:53:40,680
Speaker 8: I suspect we.

1036
00:53:40,719 --> 00:53:43,120
Speaker 16: Will, and that's one of the big questions. Does his

1037
00:53:43,200 --> 00:53:46,480
Speaker 16: turnabout sort of yield that kind of response. And we

1038
00:53:46,520 --> 00:53:51,200
Speaker 16: are seeing some big early vote numbers in places like Georgia,

1039
00:53:51,360 --> 00:53:53,920
Speaker 16: So the numbers are coming in. We just don't know

1040
00:53:54,120 --> 00:53:57,200
Speaker 16: obviously how they're voting. So when we find that out,

1041
00:53:57,239 --> 00:54:01,160
Speaker 16: I think we will see an increase in Republican turnout early.

1042
00:54:01,920 --> 00:54:06,719
Speaker 6: All right. Genie Shanzeno, Senior Democracy Fellow at the Center

1043
00:54:06,760 --> 00:54:09,520
Speaker 6: for the Study of the Presidency and Congress. Today alongside

1044
00:54:09,640 --> 00:54:12,920
Speaker 6: Brittany Martinez, founder of Aspina and Co. And Republican strategist

1045
00:54:13,000 --> 00:54:15,680
Speaker 6: our political panel on this Friday, Thank.

1046
00:54:15,440 --> 00:54:16,440
Speaker 11: You so much.

1047
00:54:16,600 --> 00:54:20,279
Speaker 6: It is Friday, you're here TGIF. As we are in

1048
00:54:20,320 --> 00:54:22,840
Speaker 6: these final weeks of the election, it does feel like

1049
00:54:23,040 --> 00:54:26,239
Speaker 6: each week has enough news to pack in two a month.

1050
00:54:26,280 --> 00:54:28,800
Speaker 6: And that doesn't just go for what's happening in domestic politics,

1051
00:54:28,800 --> 00:54:35,960
Speaker 6: it goes for geopolitics as well.

1052
00:54:35,960 --> 00:54:39,160
Speaker 2: Thanks for listening to the Balance of Power podcast. Make

1053
00:54:39,200 --> 00:54:42,160
Speaker 2: sure to subscribe if you haven't already, at Apple, Spotify,

1054
00:54:42,239 --> 00:54:44,839
Speaker 2: or wherever you get your podcasts, and you can find

1055
00:54:44,920 --> 00:54:48,120
Speaker 2: us live every weekday from Washington, DC. At noontime Eastern

1056
00:54:48,440 --> 00:54:49,880
Speaker 2: at Bloomberg dot com