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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along
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Speaker 2: be a three hour conversation. We've got precious minutes this
Speaker 2: morning with Rebecca Pattison, a tour of duty with Bridgewater
Speaker 2: Sound Trust Advice at Bessemer Capital, and we're thrilled that
Speaker 2: she could join us.
Speaker 3: Bessemer Trust. They should say that she could join us. Paul,
Speaker 3: We're going to ignore the Patterson paragraph on bitcoin.
Speaker 2: Okay, We're just going to ignore it because there's too
Speaker 2: many other things going on right now. I want to
Speaker 2: go back to JP Morgan, where you understood dollar yen
Speaker 2: versus Korean Wan and the rest of it the carry trade,
Speaker 2: JP Morgan publishes this morning. You know what, it's mostly done.
Speaker 2: I've got my own theory. What's the Patterson theory on
Speaker 2: when this agony is over?
Speaker 4: I think you actually do need to listen a lot
Speaker 4: to the big investment banks that have large FX trading
Speaker 4: operations right now. JP Morgan's obviously one of them, because
Speaker 4: they're going to have the best real time data on
Speaker 4: where investors are versus where they were and what might
Speaker 4: seem comfortable in the new environment we're in. So you've
Speaker 4: seen JP Morgan say maybe we're almost done. A few
Speaker 4: other banks I've read in the last twenty four hours
Speaker 4: say we're not done, but we're.
Speaker 5: Close to the end. In the beginning, Okay, what.
Speaker 2: You do in this summer and in August at the
Speaker 2: Patterson household and the Keen household, when the brats are up,
Speaker 2: you slap them and say shut up and watch a
Speaker 2: real movie. You can't watch Glee five times so you're
Speaker 2: watching Butch Cassidy, who are these guys? Who are the
Speaker 2: people in? The carry trade? Is a dreaded hedge funds
Speaker 2: at huts and yards.
Speaker 4: So, just for the record, I've never slapped anyone. I
Speaker 4: know you're joking, feel like I need to get that
Speaker 4: out there. I think we don't know yet who exactly
Speaker 4: has been in the carry trade, but I would certainly
Speaker 4: assume that hedge funds have played a role. But one
Speaker 4: piece of the market that I think we need to
Speaker 4: play more attention to is the retail investor. If you
Speaker 4: look at data from the Federal Reserve, the total market,
Speaker 4: the percent that's retail today is the highest it's been
Speaker 4: since Get Ready for My Dates seven and ninety nine.
Speaker 4: Now that doesn't mean we're going to have the same
Speaker 4: ending to this movie, but it does mean that they're
Speaker 4: playing a significant role. And today they have more tools,
Speaker 4: including zero day options and Leverty ETFs. They have easier
Speaker 4: access with all these free to cheap platforms. So I
Speaker 4: wouldn't be shocked if there is a surprisingly large retail
Speaker 4: element to all of this.
Speaker 6: What do you make over the last four or five
Speaker 6: days of trading? We had that Job's number less Friday
Speaker 6: that really seemed to spook the market a little bit.
Speaker 6: We had some a lot of you know, selling and
Speaker 6: instability in the marketplace last several days. Maybe you know,
Speaker 6: what do you make of kind of where the economy
Speaker 6: is and maybe what the federal reservice.
Speaker 5: Thing came about.
Speaker 4: Sure, so you know, the poor manufacturing sentiment and the
Speaker 4: payrolls certainly came right together with the Bank of Japan
Speaker 4: decision not just to raise rates but give hawkish guidance.
Speaker 4: That plus positions, I think all came together to trigger
Speaker 4: this sell off. When I but when I take a
Speaker 4: step back and look at the economy, I think we're
Speaker 4: still kind of fifty to fifty. If we get a
Speaker 4: soft landing or something bumpier the service sector sentiment, and
Speaker 4: the service sector is a much bigger part of the economy.
Speaker 4: It's still holding up well, better than expected, still expanding. Yes,
Speaker 4: we're getting a lot of earnings suggesting consumer caution, but
Speaker 4: so far most of those seem more focused on the
Speaker 4: lower end consumer, which we know has been stretched for time.
Speaker 4: But I do think it makes the recovery more vulnerable.
Speaker 4: So if the expansion more vulnerable, if the wealthier consumer
Speaker 4: starts getting more cautious, or companies just say we need
Speaker 4: to start cutting some jobs or pairing back investment, this
Speaker 4: thing can get a negative kind of flywheel going pretty quickly.
Speaker 5: So what does our feeder reserve do here? Come September.
Speaker 4: Well, you know, we have almost fifty basis points priced
Speaker 4: in for September. I do think it's likely we get
Speaker 4: a cut. The question is is it twenty five or fifty.
Speaker 4: I think that will be a debate. We'll get guidance
Speaker 4: from Powell at Jackson Hole, as you mentioned earlier, and
Speaker 4: we have a lot of data, so it's going to
Speaker 4: be I hate to say this because it sounds like
Speaker 4: a cop out, but it is going to be data
Speaker 4: dependent in terms of the degree of the cut we
Speaker 4: get September.
Speaker 2: I agree in the data dependency. Bruce casmen out with
Speaker 2: a note this morning, falling up on a statement ten
Speaker 2: days ago.
Speaker 3: That he sees global disinflation.
Speaker 2: What I don't see in the zeitgeist right now, Rebecca,
Speaker 2: is the discussion of the damp effect of disinflation and
Speaker 2: deflation on the optionality that institutions have.
Speaker 3: They're going to run out of choices here.
Speaker 2: If we get Wayley's three percent China GDP growth, if
Speaker 2: we get Chasmin's global disinflation, how constrained are institution's going
Speaker 2: to be six months from now?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean we're already starting to see more companies
Speaker 4: feel the heat from not being able to raise prices
Speaker 4: as much.
Speaker 3: Yeah. Did you see Warner Brothers Discovery that was key esting?
Speaker 4: Yeah, that was a little heat or the McDonald's five
Speaker 4: dollars meals. You know, we're seeing companies realize consumers are
Speaker 4: saying no more, and so they're having to react to it.
Speaker 4: And if that continues, obviously we're going to see it
Speaker 4: feeding through into profit margins.
Speaker 5: What have you seen from earnings in this period? How
Speaker 5: would you characterize it?
Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I wouldn't say it's bad by any stretch,
Speaker 4: but I think what the market is latching onto is
Speaker 4: the sense of caution with a consumer. What struck me though,
Speaker 4: is it it's coming from China and the US. So
Speaker 4: there's two stories here. There's the soft China story and
Speaker 4: the cautious US consumer story. And I wouldn't take my
Speaker 4: eyes off of China.
Speaker 5: Tom.
Speaker 4: You mentioned the Chinese rememby earlier, you know, when we
Speaker 4: talked about here carry on Wines and China. You know,
Speaker 4: their bond yields have fallen so far the government's now
Speaker 4: threatening to intervene to push up bond yields because they
Speaker 4: don't want a speculative bubble in bonds. The last thing
Speaker 4: they need is higher yields right now with their economy
Speaker 4: so soft, so they're kind of stuck, and I think
Speaker 4: we need to keep watching how that flows through, both
Speaker 4: to disinflation and growth.
Speaker 2: I want to overlay here your experience with talking to
Speaker 2: people where short term is three years? How do you
Speaker 2: prosecute an adult investment cycle or unknown future given the
Speaker 2: cacophity of short term idiocies.
Speaker 4: Wow, what a great sentence. This is why I love
Speaker 4: going on.
Speaker 3: I'm not awake.
Speaker 2: I stayed up and watched Siberia synchronized swimming, so I'm
Speaker 2: not awake.
Speaker 4: Well, just like Christine. Look I was a synchronized swimmer,
Speaker 4: so I'm all about that. Yes, that's another conversation.
Speaker 3: We'll stop the show, breaking news. Here were minutes left?
Speaker 5: No, no, no, no, no, God's name.
Speaker 3: Do you put your feet up in the air like that?
Speaker 3: I mean I talked to Leguard yesterday about this. How
Speaker 3: do you what are you doing.
Speaker 2: With your hands to get your feet that far up
Speaker 2: in the air.
Speaker 4: Well, the technical term is sculling, but you're just moving
Speaker 4: your arms back and forth, almost like a little propeller.
Speaker 4: But let's get back, let's get actually investors.
Speaker 3: Yes, no swimming in the sun.
Speaker 4: No, not a million years. Okay, get back, okay, all right,
Speaker 4: so let's okay, focus, focus. You know, I've had the
Speaker 4: luxury of dealing with very short and very long term investors,
Speaker 4: and I think for the longer term investor today, you know,
Speaker 4: this is an opportunity to say, is there anything I've
Speaker 4: liked that I can now get ten or twenty percent cheaper.
Speaker 4: I think some investors are looking at Japan saying, you know,
Speaker 4: we're getting a lot of reform, corporate reform, that's it's important.
Speaker 4: We are seeing some positive movement with actual earnings and
Speaker 4: buybacks from Japan. I'm a little more skeptical on Japan
Speaker 4: just because I think that their economy is still so
Speaker 4: dependent on the US, and if we have a bumpy
Speaker 4: landing in the US, it's going to be hard for
Speaker 4: the Japanese equity market to decouple. But overall, I think
Speaker 4: you want to stay. I know it's very obvious, but
Speaker 4: diversified and geography is not enough. We saw this Friday
Speaker 4: and Monday, when the stuff hits the fan, correlations go
Speaker 4: to one Europe Japan, they all sell off with the US.
Speaker 4: So that's not enough. You have to be thinking about
Speaker 4: your assets, subassets, the type of securities you own. I
Speaker 4: think that still includes treasuries in gold as part of
Speaker 4: those diversifiers even today. And one place I would look
Speaker 4: at overseas right now, which I think has gotten a
Speaker 4: little bit ignored is the UK very low beta equity market,
Speaker 4: very good, attractive valuations, and I think we'll see for
Speaker 4: the first time in a while we have a grown
Speaker 4: up government that might bring some stability, and stability would
Speaker 4: be a positive improvement, So that might be one to
Speaker 4: look at as far as a defensive equity position that
Speaker 4: you can get on sale.
Speaker 2: Right now.
Speaker 6: When you look at Europe and the UK, you don't
Speaker 6: have a big techt exposure there, so you're talking about
Speaker 6: stuff they actually make stuff in the export at the China,
Speaker 6: so that there's a China risk in those markets, right I.
Speaker 4: Think more so in Europe than in the UK. If
Speaker 4: we were talking about Germany, i'd say one hundred and
Speaker 4: ten percent. I think the UK, the sectors in the
Speaker 4: UK equity market are a little different and I would
Speaker 4: be focusing more frankly right now on the UK domestic
Speaker 4: equity market, so that index specifically.
Speaker 3: Rebecca Patterson, thank you so much for.
Speaker 4: Great to see you guys.
Speaker 7: I just wanted just a.
Speaker 3: Great brief there in this.
Speaker 2: Pream miser with this JP Morgan Asset Management, a portfolio manager,
Speaker 2: and I've just got to go to your arch call
Speaker 2: of lower yields over tow twenty four months. It's prea
Speaker 2: misra genius Ian lincoln'sat in that chair yesterday it bemo
Speaker 2: Capital Markets and said out there we will power through
Speaker 2: four percent well down into a three percent and he
Speaker 2: frames out two point ninety five percent somewhere out there, distant.
Speaker 3: Do you have the same overlay price up yield lower
Speaker 3: lower lower?
Speaker 8: I do? And here's why.
Speaker 9: I think the last week, if you didn't think that
Speaker 9: bonds and stocks were covered were essentially negatively correlated.
Speaker 8: Well the last week shows you that they are.
Speaker 9: So you know, if we stay in a soft landing,
Speaker 9: the interest rates are going to fall because the Fed's
Speaker 9: going to have to cut.
Speaker 8: To some normal level.
Speaker 9: We don't know what that normal is, but it's not
Speaker 9: five and a half percent, right. If it's three percent
Speaker 9: and the Fed's cutting all the way down to two
Speaker 9: and a half to three percent, that tenure is going
Speaker 9: to fall. If we actually slip into a recession. That's
Speaker 9: where risk assets are going to struggle, and that's when
Speaker 9: interest rates are going to fall much below that.
Speaker 2: Somebody said to me yesterday, they said, what's a single
Speaker 2: thing we're not talking about?
Speaker 3: And I talked. I quote it Bruce Kasman.
Speaker 2: He's an economist at a small bank down on Perk Avenue.
Speaker 2: Bruce Kasson wrote a piece on global disinflation, and to me,
Speaker 2: that's the heart of the matter. Fold in the China
Speaker 2: driven global disinflation into your portfolio management.
Speaker 9: Absolutely, So I think inflation is extremely global. We saw
Speaker 9: that on the way up. It's going to happen on
Speaker 9: the way down. I would argue markets extremely global, but
Speaker 9: we can sort of focus on I think one or
Speaker 9: two things at a time. So the last week has
Speaker 9: all been about the US payroll report or dollar en
Speaker 9: but look at globally, where is the engine of growth?
Speaker 9: I think the engine of growth was in the US,
Speaker 9: and now there's a question there are we slowing to
Speaker 9: normalizing trend levels? Are we slowing below that? I think
Speaker 9: that's still an open question. But look elsewhere and global
Speaker 9: growth is slowing and inflation is decelerating. So I think
Speaker 9: the market's focus, the Fed's focus has absolutely moved away
Speaker 9: from inflat. We have a CPR report, and I'm less
Speaker 9: worried about that next week than I am about you know,
Speaker 9: initial claims, which is showing up pretty soon.
Speaker 5: Coming up versus.
Speaker 6: So what should our federal Reserve be doing? I mean,
Speaker 6: Monday morning we had discussions of an emergency inter meeting
Speaker 6: rate cut.
Speaker 5: On Monday morning early. What do you think the Fed
Speaker 5: should do?
Speaker 9: In you know, I think they should start normalizing. We're
Speaker 9: at five and a half. Inflation is decelerating, you know,
Speaker 9: globally it's decelerating. In the US, service inflation, wage inflation's
Speaker 9: all coming down. I think they should absolutely be cutting.
Speaker 9: Where I've struggled with is this idea of gradual normalization.
Speaker 8: We know monetary policy works with a lag.
Speaker 9: So if the labor market, which I Pao said, is
Speaker 9: back to twenty nineteen levels, if inflation is decelerating close
Speaker 9: to that two percent, they should absolutely be cutting. I
Speaker 9: think they should be cutting fast to normal normalition levels.
Speaker 9: So fifty basis points make sense the inter meeting. I
Speaker 9: think the market went a little too far for an
Speaker 9: intermeeting rate cut. I think you need severe financial market stress,
Speaker 9: which is going to threaten the recovery.
Speaker 8: So at that point we're talking about either.
Speaker 9: An institutional failure or markets breaking down.
Speaker 7: You know.
Speaker 8: I think the speed of the move.
Speaker 9: Was interesting, but it is August, you know, there is
Speaker 9: summer liquidity. Everyone was in the soft landing trades. I
Speaker 9: don't think we should get carried away about intermeeting cuts,
Speaker 9: but I think the FED really here should be normalizing.
Speaker 9: Perhaps they should have started last week, but they can
Speaker 9: catch up quickly.
Speaker 5: They can catch up. So what happens when a FED
Speaker 5: begins to cut? How do they do it?
Speaker 6: They do it like every meeting, every other meeting, twenty
Speaker 6: five bass point fifty to fifty basis pots. I can't
Speaker 6: even remember the last time we were in a cutting cycle.
Speaker 9: So I think people look at the last cutting cycle,
Speaker 9: which is COVID, and that's where this intermeeting cut comes in,
Speaker 9: or they look at the one before that and the
Speaker 9: fed's cutting really fast. I think this could be a
Speaker 9: very different cutting cycle, and you know, fairly similar to
Speaker 9: the hiking cycle. Remember they started, they went aggressively seventy five,
Speaker 9: multiple seventy fives, and then they slowed down. I actually
Speaker 9: think this cutting cycle might look similar go fifties all
Speaker 9: the way to some level of neutral, maybe it's three percent,
Speaker 9: which is where the FED is at. Then they can
Speaker 9: slow down, and you know that gives them the opportunity
Speaker 9: to respond if things slow down. I think, you know
Speaker 9: the one fifty is not going to the market's going
Speaker 9: to focus on that dot plot. We're going to get
Speaker 9: revised dot a revised dot plot in September. Is the
Speaker 9: FED going to talk about aggressively getting to neutral or
Speaker 9: are they going to stay on this gradual path and
Speaker 9: that's when the market's going to get really nervous.
Speaker 2: I don't want to get you in trouble with Stacy
Speaker 2: Friedman and general counsel over at JP Morgan, but I
Speaker 2: got to ask because I think all of global Wall.
Speaker 3: Street wants to know.
Speaker 2: You killed it as a strategist and now you're a
Speaker 2: portfolio manager. What's been the biggest surprise about being quote
Speaker 2: unquote a portfolio manager?
Speaker 9: It's the correlations, which as a strategist, I could look
Speaker 9: at Excel and you know, have a lot of conviction
Speaker 9: on correlations, and then you live days where the core
Speaker 9: relation goes from negative to positive across asset classes. Because
Speaker 9: interst rates was hard enough trying to figure out interest
Speaker 9: rates and then how does that feed through across portfolios
Speaker 9: or you know, does it have differential impacts in different
Speaker 9: parts of credit.
Speaker 8: That's sort of what I speak.
Speaker 2: So where's the opportunity now in those differential impacts? That's
Speaker 2: the key question.
Speaker 9: So I think I ask it for Jamie. He just
Speaker 9: emailed me, So there is opportunity. I think high quality
Speaker 9: spread product. You're locking in yields of five and a
Speaker 9: half six percent. But here's where where you end of cycle,
Speaker 9: cost of capital is high. This is where that research
Speaker 9: background helps. You have to look at companies. You have
Speaker 9: to look at business models. What are companies doing with debt?
Speaker 9: I think dispersion is increasing within credit? So do the work,
Speaker 9: buy high quality spread product and buy some duration.
Speaker 3: Thirty seconds? Can you frame a sub three percent ten
Speaker 3: year yield?
Speaker 2: Not the drama back the negative rates, but can you
Speaker 2: see price up yield down that much?
Speaker 8: I can.
Speaker 9: I think we're normalizing if the Feds, you know, in
Speaker 9: terms of the economy as of the data right now,
Speaker 9: if the FED doesn't cut quickly enough, or the lags
Speaker 9: are long, they were long on the way up, they
Speaker 9: could be long on the way down. The economy slows
Speaker 9: into recession, the Fed's cutting to two percent or below.
Speaker 9: At that point, the tenure is going to be the
Speaker 9: only thing that investors are going to want.
Speaker 8: That's when you're going much low.
Speaker 2: In Neil Prea, thank you so much. Pria Misra is
Speaker 2: with JP Morgan. This is classic Belski, folks. He writes
Speaker 2: a mental note paragraph to pay if you hate him,
Speaker 2: because if it's a six page note, you got to
Speaker 2: read all six pages. He writes a blistering two paragraph,
Speaker 2: three paragraph note, which is what everybody calmed down. Figure
Speaker 2: out what you're going to buy when you have the
Speaker 2: courage to buy. Brian Belski, Bimo Capital joining us. Now, Brian,
Speaker 2: what will be the signal for you to take that
Speaker 2: list of equities you've got and pull the trigger and
Speaker 2: buy at the margin.
Speaker 10: Well, good morning.
Speaker 7: Uh, you know the market seems to be this fire
Speaker 7: aim ready again, which for us creates great opportunity because
Speaker 7: we have a process and a discipline.
Speaker 10: The names that you know we listened in our note
Speaker 10: this morning are all kind of core names.
Speaker 7: And because we don't do a lot of or invoke
Speaker 7: a lot of turnover in our portfolios that we manage
Speaker 7: for our great wealth management system in both the United
Speaker 7: States and Canada.
Speaker 10: Our clients are already invested in those names.
Speaker 7: And if you take a look at where where there's
Speaker 7: been blood in the streets, not like a Warner Brothers
Speaker 7: Discovery today, because obviously there's some operational issues there, but
Speaker 7: names like Morgan Stanley that were down, or the Apple
Speaker 7: pull back, or even Lulu Lemon when there's when there's
Speaker 7: there's strong fundamentals underneath that, Tom, we want to own
Speaker 7: those names longer term. We've had an opportunity this week
Speaker 7: to kind of rebalance portfolio.
Speaker 2: And what's important here, folks, is the adults look at
Speaker 2: the Bloomberg and they use fundamental technical and economic analysis.
Speaker 2: Paul the weekly ch, not the daily gyrations. Smooth it
Speaker 2: out a little, Paul the weekly chart. Take it log arrhythmics,
Speaker 2: standard and poors five hundred and Belski has his tattooed
Speaker 2: to his brain. We are perfectly back to the long
Speaker 2: term bull market moving average using the exponential moving averages
Speaker 2: I use. We haven't even broken long term support and
Speaker 2: we're all going to cash.
Speaker 5: We'll go crazy, Tom.
Speaker 6: You know, about a million years ago, Brian was a
Speaker 6: student at Saint Cloud State University. So I had to
Speaker 6: Google map this, dude. It is practically in Canada. Its
Speaker 6: way up there in Minnesota, and it's awesome. Exactly the
Speaker 6: Herbrooks National Hockey Centers, the Change River, I forgot, the
Speaker 6: Mississippi Rivers.
Speaker 2: I played with the animals from a Dyna Minnesota. Yeah,
Speaker 2: and they were like basically junior a player from Canada
Speaker 2: masquerading as Americans.
Speaker 3: Continue with Bran.
Speaker 5: All right, Brian, people were freaking out in Monday morning. Brian,
Speaker 5: there was a sense of panic in the market here.
Speaker 5: I mean, did you sense that?
Speaker 6: And what does that tell you about maybe how investors
Speaker 6: are thinking about this market?
Speaker 7: We did, Paul, and you know, it's still the old
Speaker 7: notion attention spans of nats and oh, by the way,
Speaker 7: it's gotten worse. We seem to forgotten that August is
Speaker 7: usually a very bad month, and we've had it in
Speaker 7: twenty twenty two, in twenty twenty three.
Speaker 10: But if you go back to the nineties, it was five.
Speaker 7: Straight years or August we're negative and it's really I mean,
Speaker 7: especially this year, Paul, I think too, because a lot
Speaker 7: of people are on vacation and the adults are away
Speaker 7: quote unquote and I think that's what's caused even this
Speaker 7: morning with the goofy move in the treasuries off of
Speaker 7: an employment report, which we are guessing by the way
Speaker 7: that the employment report is going to be restated and
Speaker 7: not as bad next month. So I think people are
Speaker 7: way too Macararion. We've said it on your network before.
Speaker 7: We think this is like taking candy from a baby,
Speaker 7: meaning you want to be an investor, you want to
Speaker 7: buy good companies, you want to buy the dip. And
Speaker 7: that's the old notion of the Warren Buffett rule, is
Speaker 7: that you buy when there's blood in the streets and
Speaker 7: there's lots of emotions.
Speaker 10: So we're actually excited.
Speaker 7: About what's gone on because this is actually quite normal.
Speaker 5: Quite normal.
Speaker 6: Yeah, a lot of folks Brian has been saying, you know,
Speaker 6: in a normal bullmark, you do need to see some
Speaker 6: pullbacks here, five, ten, fifteen, twenty percent. So maybe that's
Speaker 6: kind of what we saw a little bit here. How
Speaker 6: about some of these big tech stocks that historically have
Speaker 6: moved this market higher, they have been weak, there's been
Speaker 6: that rotation trade.
Speaker 5: What do you do with some of those big tech
Speaker 5: stocks here these days?
Speaker 7: Well, we really continue to believe that from a thematic basis,
Speaker 7: those big tech stocks we call.
Speaker 10: Them super seven are really your.
Speaker 7: Consumer staple stocks now, and you keep core positions there,
Speaker 7: much like Warren Buffett did. By the way, he just
Speaker 7: sold a little Apple. He was way overweighted and he's
Speaker 7: owned the stock for twenty plus years. So I think
Speaker 7: that's been way too there's been way too much negativity
Speaker 7: surrounding that. But then you start buying these other tech
Speaker 7: stocks like Palentier, an Oracle.
Speaker 10: And amd in Qualcommon, Broadcom.
Speaker 7: But I think I think what people are missing is
Speaker 7: the broadening out effect of owning a.
Speaker 10: Little bit of everything.
Speaker 7: It means small MidCap stocks, it means value stocks, it
Speaker 7: means mantles, it means playing themes and being more fundamental.
Speaker 2: Brian one final question I got, Well, you know it's
Speaker 2: all this tech love.
Speaker 3: I get it. I don't even know what palingtary is.
Speaker 3: What do you do with Walmart?
Speaker 2: I got a company who with single digit revenue growth, poppin'
Speaker 2: a forward twenty seven to twenty eight multiple as well.
Speaker 2: Is there finally now an opportunity with these slow revenue
Speaker 2: growers with these huge valuations?
Speaker 3: What do you do with Walmart?
Speaker 10: We love Walmart.
Speaker 7: We own it in three or four portfolios in the
Speaker 7: consumer stable space, our core names are Costco and Walmart.
Speaker 10: Who's not going to shop there?
Speaker 7: And especially considering if people are worried about stretching their dollar,
Speaker 7: they're going to go to Walmart and they're certainly going
Speaker 7: to go to Costco. And I think Walmart's done an
Speaker 7: amazing job on their web platform as well.
Speaker 10: I think it's a name that.
Speaker 7: I actually a lot of core people don't own the
Speaker 7: stock and core portfolio, so I think there's a real
Speaker 7: opportunity longer term there as well.
Speaker 2: Lisa, do you want to drop in a question here
Speaker 2: on Costco to mister Belski here? I mean she is
Speaker 2: our securities analyst on a dollar fifty hot dog.
Speaker 1: You know they are increasing their membership, but that's how
Speaker 1: they make most of their money. Is this where some
Speaker 1: of these retailers are going to go toward more the membership? Whew?
Speaker 1: Do is that going to track more people in?
Speaker 10: I think that might be part of it too, Lacy.
Speaker 7: You remember here in America's heartland in Minnesota, I mean,
Speaker 7: we sit and stand in line to get gas at Costco.
Speaker 10: Because we're very cost conscious. The American consumer.
Speaker 7: Is super smartly, so you know, they have one hundred dollars,
Speaker 7: they're going to spend it where they can get the
Speaker 7: most for one hundred dollars. And so I think that
Speaker 7: we can't discount how strong and consistent the US consumer is.
Speaker 3: How do the Vikings look this year? Brian?
Speaker 2: We got to go, but I mean, is this finally
Speaker 2: where the Vikings get their act together?
Speaker 10: We're all excited. You got training. Have we got a
Speaker 10: new quarterback? Which means probably we're not going to do
Speaker 10: very well.
Speaker 11: Good Brian Belski, thank you so much with your Vikings
Speaker 11: update from Minnesota.
Speaker 3: Your daily look at.
Speaker 2: The front pages at least a mateo hour.
Speaker 3: Tell me we're bumble free on the newspaper.
Speaker 1: We are bumble free, but not Costco free. It's about Costco.
Speaker 1: You know, I had to go and start there. Okay,
Speaker 1: they are cracking down on the membership sharing, kind of
Speaker 1: like Netflix is doing the same thing. Uh, the problem
Speaker 1: is that too many people are sharing it. They're going
Speaker 1: into I don't know if either of you have been
Speaker 1: to a Costco, but when you go in, there's someone
Speaker 1: at the door who checks your ID, but the picture
Speaker 1: is really small. They can't see it. They just you know,
Speaker 1: wave you and just go in. You know, I wipe
Speaker 1: my app.
Speaker 5: And they just say yes or go ahead, so you're
Speaker 5: a member.
Speaker 1: So I'm a member.
Speaker 5: Yeah.
Speaker 1: So they're starting to do is they're having these ID
Speaker 1: scanners so that when you go in, now what's going
Speaker 1: to happen is that you scan it and it comes
Speaker 1: up on this bigger screen so they can actually see
Speaker 1: the picture and say, oh, yeah.
Speaker 8: That's you things.
Speaker 5: Are people really doing that?
Speaker 1: People are really doing that. They're just all they're doing
Speaker 1: because they don't really look at it.
Speaker 5: Which a cost come membership.
Speaker 1: I have the higher versus shots. Yeah, that's about one
Speaker 1: hundred and thirty dollars. The fees are going up in September,
Speaker 1: right the first time in seven years. For me, it's
Speaker 1: worth it because you get a percent back. So at
Speaker 1: the end of the year, I get a check that
Speaker 1: basically pays for it.
Speaker 5: Is it nice?
Speaker 3: Is it the same as the magic?
Speaker 2: It was like in Red Too, when Mary Louise Parker's
Speaker 2: in there and you know John Malkovich is in there
Speaker 2: and there.
Speaker 3: Like an aisle four with the Kirkland toilet paper and.
Speaker 5: That is Costco toilet.
Speaker 2: This is Costco the same as it was when Bruce
Speaker 2: Willis made that great movie.
Speaker 1: I think, hey, the hot dog price is still the same,
Speaker 1: all right.
Speaker 3: But the Kirkland item is not.
Speaker 1: As well next so yeah, they're cracking down on that.
Speaker 5: Okay.
Speaker 1: A new report shows a pandemic shifted US jobs away
Speaker 1: from big cities.
Speaker 8: Into smaller metros.
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna break this down for you. This is
Speaker 1: from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York analysis job listings.
Speaker 1: Large central metro areas now count for about thirty eight
Speaker 1: percent of total listings nationwide.
Speaker 8: That's down from.
Speaker 1: Forty six percent pre pandemic, and the portion of job
Speaker 1: bob making in smaller metros that increase. There's also a
Speaker 1: shift in the type of jobs. You have postings for
Speaker 1: jobs related to computers, math that fell, and then job
Speaker 1: listings and healthcare that rose. And they say, why, Well,
Speaker 1: what's the reason behind? Well, it's remote work.
Speaker 9: Okay.
Speaker 1: People are moving away from the big cities because they
Speaker 1: can work remotely from wherever. And as they start to relocate,
Speaker 1: then you have people who are needed for let's say,
Speaker 1: food workers, healthcare, other services. So that's the reason.
Speaker 2: Paul Chef were up to speed on this I'm thunderstruck
Speaker 2: by how empty the streets of New York are. Selected times,
Speaker 2: it's like, you gotta, can we say work from home?
Speaker 5: I think, I think it is.
Speaker 3: Full disclosure and I think this is nuts.
Speaker 6: But no, I think you're right, Tom. I think you're right.
Speaker 6: I think and again, I just think about my own offspring.
Speaker 6: It's part of their That's just how they view the
Speaker 6: workforce as a as a hybrid kind of environment.
Speaker 5: That's where we are.
Speaker 1: Are they doing the hybrid?
Speaker 6: Yes, even like fidelity. My son works a fidelity hybrid Universal.
Speaker 3: Music group of Peter Lynch was never hot.
Speaker 6: I tell you what is the defence contractors my son
Speaker 6: works for, not hybrid?
Speaker 3: Is bumble work from home home?
Speaker 1: Okay, Well, we've been talking about the rivers sin right,
Speaker 1: and if the water is safe, if it's not safe
Speaker 1: as they get ready to start the swim, I think
Speaker 1: the women start today. So there's something going around that
Speaker 1: the swimmers are drinking a can of coke that is
Speaker 1: a secret to not getting sick after you get into
Speaker 1: the water. There's reasons behind this. Okay, it's not proven.
Speaker 1: Just want to put that out there. There's no medical
Speaker 1: evidence for this whatsoever. But they say they're fans of it.
Speaker 1: The reason is because the acidity works as this like
Speaker 1: quasi bleach for your digestive track, so.
Speaker 8: You don't get sick that way.
Speaker 5: I mean, think of it.
Speaker 1: If you take a can of coca and you pour
Speaker 1: it down your drain, it clears it out.
Speaker 2: Wait, wait a minute, is this plus for Atlanta?
Speaker 3: Which is this? Well?
Speaker 6: I mean after a big night out. So many days
Speaker 6: I've said there's nothing better in this world than coca cola.
Speaker 5: Really, oh my god. It just revives you like nothing
Speaker 5: else in the world.
Speaker 1: But the athletes like it because of that sugar rush too,
Speaker 1: because it returns like those glycic gin levels that they.
Speaker 6: And you have Coca cola and Mateo house. Never I
Speaker 6: mean again reason number like three thousand. I'm never going
Speaker 6: into the Mateo household.
Speaker 5: No Coca cola.
Speaker 1: It's sorry, sorry, too much sugar, too much sugar.
Speaker 3: Lisa Mateo. Thank Lisa Mateo with a newspapers today. Thank
Speaker 3: you so much.
Speaker 5: Wait, there's.
Speaker 1: Have video to go with this bowl on it next
Speaker 1: this one.
Speaker 5: Okay, we have the video. There were these dogs.
Speaker 1: There's video of the dogs in the house and what
Speaker 1: happens is that Make sure you keep Vet Bill and
Speaker 1: Kennelfey away from your cell phone battery. Pat, okay, because
Speaker 1: you see the dog, he's biting on it.
Speaker 5: He's chewing on it.
Speaker 1: If you're watching on YouTube, you can watch along with us.
Speaker 1: And all of a sudden it starts to spark up. Oh,
Speaker 1: and he jumps, and he jumps off the bed and
Speaker 1: it bursts into flames because he's on his pet bed.
Speaker 1: So the other dog runs for the hills. And now
Speaker 1: he's saying, what are you an idiot?
Speaker 5: What were you doing?
Speaker 7: Dog?
Speaker 1: So the two dogs and the cat scooch out the
Speaker 1: dog door.
Speaker 5: They're saved. No one's hurt.
Speaker 1: That's the main idea here this story. But the lesson
Speaker 1: learned is these things can be kind of dangerous.
Speaker 8: It's serious.
Speaker 2: John Tucker's really let on this. So I think John's
Speaker 2: did some great reporting on him. Sorry, he's not here,
Speaker 2: he's looking at Siberian Olympic outtakes. But but Paul, I'm
Speaker 2: sorry for Mayor Adams in New York City, there's no
Speaker 2: more serious there.
Speaker 6: The FDNY will tell you this is a huge, huge
Speaker 6: him that puts their firefighters at risk. And I learned
Speaker 6: this a long time ago with my oldest son who
Speaker 6: was into all these those battery packs for his various
Speaker 6: RV vehicles, and he would store them out in the garage.
Speaker 6: You would never bring him the home, put him any
Speaker 6: special wraps and special containers because he was trying to
Speaker 6: explain how right and sure enough?
Speaker 3: Okay, I'm not good at this. Does a vespa have
Speaker 3: a lithium battery?
Speaker 5: No it does not. We are gasoline power.
Speaker 2: Okay, there safety on the Jersey. Sure, Lisa Mateo, thank
Speaker 2: you so much for the newspapers. This is a Bloomberg
Speaker 2: Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment,
Speaker 2: and international relations. You can also watch the show live
Speaker 2: on YouTube.
Speaker 3: Visit the Bloomberg.
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Speaker 2: you listen, and always Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg
Speaker 3: Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App.