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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keene along

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Speaker 2: with Paul Sweeney. Join us each day for insight from

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Speaker 2: the best in economics, finance, investment, and international relations. You

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Speaker 2: can also watch the show live on YouTube. Visit the

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Speaker 2: Bloomberg Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday

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Speaker 2: mornings from seven to ten am Eastern from our global

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Speaker 2: headquarters in New York City. Subscribe to the podcast on Apple, Spotify,

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Speaker 2: or anywhere else you listen and always I'm Bloomberg Radio,

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Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business app. This could

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Speaker 2: be a three hour conversation. We've got precious minutes this

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Speaker 2: morning with Rebecca Pattison, a tour of duty with Bridgewater

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Speaker 2: Sound Trust Advice at Bessemer Capital, and we're thrilled that

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Speaker 2: she could join us.

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Speaker 3: Bessemer Trust. They should say that she could join us. Paul,

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Speaker 3: We're going to ignore the Patterson paragraph on bitcoin.

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Speaker 2: Okay, We're just going to ignore it because there's too

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Speaker 2: many other things going on right now. I want to

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Speaker 2: go back to JP Morgan, where you understood dollar yen

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Speaker 2: versus Korean Wan and the rest of it the carry trade,

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Speaker 2: JP Morgan publishes this morning. You know what, it's mostly done.

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Speaker 2: I've got my own theory. What's the Patterson theory on

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Speaker 2: when this agony is over?

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Speaker 4: I think you actually do need to listen a lot

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Speaker 4: to the big investment banks that have large FX trading

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Speaker 4: operations right now. JP Morgan's obviously one of them, because

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Speaker 4: they're going to have the best real time data on

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Speaker 4: where investors are versus where they were and what might

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Speaker 4: seem comfortable in the new environment we're in. So you've

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Speaker 4: seen JP Morgan say maybe we're almost done. A few

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Speaker 4: other banks I've read in the last twenty four hours

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Speaker 4: say we're not done, but we're.

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Speaker 5: Close to the end. In the beginning, Okay, what.

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Speaker 2: You do in this summer and in August at the

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Speaker 2: Patterson household and the Keen household, when the brats are up,

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Speaker 2: you slap them and say shut up and watch a

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Speaker 2: real movie. You can't watch Glee five times so you're

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Speaker 2: watching Butch Cassidy, who are these guys? Who are the

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Speaker 2: people in? The carry trade? Is a dreaded hedge funds

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Speaker 2: at huts and yards.

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Speaker 4: So, just for the record, I've never slapped anyone. I

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Speaker 4: know you're joking, feel like I need to get that

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Speaker 4: out there. I think we don't know yet who exactly

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Speaker 4: has been in the carry trade, but I would certainly

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Speaker 4: assume that hedge funds have played a role. But one

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Speaker 4: piece of the market that I think we need to

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Speaker 4: play more attention to is the retail investor. If you

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Speaker 4: look at data from the Federal Reserve, the total market,

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Speaker 4: the percent that's retail today is the highest it's been

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Speaker 4: since Get Ready for My Dates seven and ninety nine.

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Speaker 4: Now that doesn't mean we're going to have the same

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Speaker 4: ending to this movie, but it does mean that they're

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Speaker 4: playing a significant role. And today they have more tools,

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Speaker 4: including zero day options and Leverty ETFs. They have easier

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Speaker 4: access with all these free to cheap platforms. So I

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Speaker 4: wouldn't be shocked if there is a surprisingly large retail

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Speaker 4: element to all of this.

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Speaker 6: What do you make over the last four or five

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Speaker 6: days of trading? We had that Job's number less Friday

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Speaker 6: that really seemed to spook the market a little bit.

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Speaker 6: We had some a lot of you know, selling and

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Speaker 6: instability in the marketplace last several days. Maybe you know,

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Speaker 6: what do you make of kind of where the economy

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Speaker 6: is and maybe what the federal reservice.

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Speaker 5: Thing came about.

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Speaker 4: Sure, so you know, the poor manufacturing sentiment and the

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Speaker 4: payrolls certainly came right together with the Bank of Japan

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Speaker 4: decision not just to raise rates but give hawkish guidance.

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Speaker 4: That plus positions, I think all came together to trigger

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Speaker 4: this sell off. When I but when I take a

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Speaker 4: step back and look at the economy, I think we're

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Speaker 4: still kind of fifty to fifty. If we get a

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Speaker 4: soft landing or something bumpier the service sector sentiment, and

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Speaker 4: the service sector is a much bigger part of the economy.

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Speaker 4: It's still holding up well, better than expected, still expanding. Yes,

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Speaker 4: we're getting a lot of earnings suggesting consumer caution, but

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Speaker 4: so far most of those seem more focused on the

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Speaker 4: lower end consumer, which we know has been stretched for time.

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Speaker 4: But I do think it makes the recovery more vulnerable.

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Speaker 4: So if the expansion more vulnerable, if the wealthier consumer

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Speaker 4: starts getting more cautious, or companies just say we need

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Speaker 4: to start cutting some jobs or pairing back investment, this

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Speaker 4: thing can get a negative kind of flywheel going pretty quickly.

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Speaker 5: So what does our feeder reserve do here? Come September.

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Speaker 4: Well, you know, we have almost fifty basis points priced

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Speaker 4: in for September. I do think it's likely we get

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Speaker 4: a cut. The question is is it twenty five or fifty.

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Speaker 4: I think that will be a debate. We'll get guidance

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Speaker 4: from Powell at Jackson Hole, as you mentioned earlier, and

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Speaker 4: we have a lot of data, so it's going to

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Speaker 4: be I hate to say this because it sounds like

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Speaker 4: a cop out, but it is going to be data

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Speaker 4: dependent in terms of the degree of the cut we

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Speaker 4: get September.

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Speaker 2: I agree in the data dependency. Bruce casmen out with

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Speaker 2: a note this morning, falling up on a statement ten

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Speaker 2: days ago.

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Speaker 3: That he sees global disinflation.

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Speaker 2: What I don't see in the zeitgeist right now, Rebecca,

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Speaker 2: is the discussion of the damp effect of disinflation and

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Speaker 2: deflation on the optionality that institutions have.

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Speaker 3: They're going to run out of choices here.

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Speaker 2: If we get Wayley's three percent China GDP growth, if

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Speaker 2: we get Chasmin's global disinflation, how constrained are institution's going

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Speaker 2: to be six months from now?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean we're already starting to see more companies

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Speaker 4: feel the heat from not being able to raise prices

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Speaker 4: as much.

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Speaker 3: Yeah. Did you see Warner Brothers Discovery that was key esting?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, that was a little heat or the McDonald's five

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Speaker 4: dollars meals. You know, we're seeing companies realize consumers are

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Speaker 4: saying no more, and so they're having to react to it.

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Speaker 4: And if that continues, obviously we're going to see it

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Speaker 4: feeding through into profit margins.

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Speaker 5: What have you seen from earnings in this period? How

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Speaker 5: would you characterize it?

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Speaker 4: Yeah, I mean I wouldn't say it's bad by any stretch,

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Speaker 4: but I think what the market is latching onto is

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Speaker 4: the sense of caution with a consumer. What struck me though,

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Speaker 4: is it it's coming from China and the US. So

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Speaker 4: there's two stories here. There's the soft China story and

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Speaker 4: the cautious US consumer story. And I wouldn't take my

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Speaker 4: eyes off of China.

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Speaker 5: Tom.

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Speaker 4: You mentioned the Chinese rememby earlier, you know, when we

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Speaker 4: talked about here carry on Wines and China. You know,

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Speaker 4: their bond yields have fallen so far the government's now

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Speaker 4: threatening to intervene to push up bond yields because they

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Speaker 4: don't want a speculative bubble in bonds. The last thing

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Speaker 4: they need is higher yields right now with their economy

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Speaker 4: so soft, so they're kind of stuck, and I think

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Speaker 4: we need to keep watching how that flows through, both

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Speaker 4: to disinflation and growth.

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Speaker 2: I want to overlay here your experience with talking to

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Speaker 2: people where short term is three years? How do you

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Speaker 2: prosecute an adult investment cycle or unknown future given the

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Speaker 2: cacophity of short term idiocies.

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Speaker 4: Wow, what a great sentence. This is why I love

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Speaker 4: going on.

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Speaker 3: I'm not awake.

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Speaker 2: I stayed up and watched Siberia synchronized swimming, so I'm

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Speaker 2: not awake.

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Speaker 4: Well, just like Christine. Look I was a synchronized swimmer,

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Speaker 4: so I'm all about that. Yes, that's another conversation.

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Speaker 3: We'll stop the show, breaking news. Here were minutes left?

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Speaker 5: No, no, no, no, no, God's name.

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Speaker 3: Do you put your feet up in the air like that?

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Speaker 3: I mean I talked to Leguard yesterday about this. How

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Speaker 3: do you what are you doing.

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Speaker 2: With your hands to get your feet that far up

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Speaker 2: in the air.

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Speaker 4: Well, the technical term is sculling, but you're just moving

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Speaker 4: your arms back and forth, almost like a little propeller.

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Speaker 4: But let's get back, let's get actually investors.

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Speaker 3: Yes, no swimming in the sun.

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Speaker 4: No, not a million years. Okay, get back, okay, all right,

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Speaker 4: so let's okay, focus, focus. You know, I've had the

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Speaker 4: luxury of dealing with very short and very long term investors,

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Speaker 4: and I think for the longer term investor today, you know,

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Speaker 4: this is an opportunity to say, is there anything I've

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Speaker 4: liked that I can now get ten or twenty percent cheaper.

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Speaker 4: I think some investors are looking at Japan saying, you know,

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Speaker 4: we're getting a lot of reform, corporate reform, that's it's important.

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Speaker 4: We are seeing some positive movement with actual earnings and

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Speaker 4: buybacks from Japan. I'm a little more skeptical on Japan

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Speaker 4: just because I think that their economy is still so

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Speaker 4: dependent on the US, and if we have a bumpy

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Speaker 4: landing in the US, it's going to be hard for

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Speaker 4: the Japanese equity market to decouple. But overall, I think

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Speaker 4: you want to stay. I know it's very obvious, but

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Speaker 4: diversified and geography is not enough. We saw this Friday

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Speaker 4: and Monday, when the stuff hits the fan, correlations go

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Speaker 4: to one Europe Japan, they all sell off with the US.

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Speaker 4: So that's not enough. You have to be thinking about

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Speaker 4: your assets, subassets, the type of securities you own. I

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Speaker 4: think that still includes treasuries in gold as part of

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Speaker 4: those diversifiers even today. And one place I would look

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Speaker 4: at overseas right now, which I think has gotten a

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Speaker 4: little bit ignored is the UK very low beta equity market,

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Speaker 4: very good, attractive valuations, and I think we'll see for

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Speaker 4: the first time in a while we have a grown

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Speaker 4: up government that might bring some stability, and stability would

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Speaker 4: be a positive improvement, So that might be one to

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Speaker 4: look at as far as a defensive equity position that

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Speaker 4: you can get on sale.

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Speaker 2: Right now.

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Speaker 6: When you look at Europe and the UK, you don't

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Speaker 6: have a big techt exposure there, so you're talking about

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Speaker 6: stuff they actually make stuff in the export at the China,

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Speaker 6: so that there's a China risk in those markets, right I.

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Speaker 4: Think more so in Europe than in the UK. If

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Speaker 4: we were talking about Germany, i'd say one hundred and

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Speaker 4: ten percent. I think the UK, the sectors in the

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Speaker 4: UK equity market are a little different and I would

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Speaker 4: be focusing more frankly right now on the UK domestic

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Speaker 4: equity market, so that index specifically.

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Speaker 3: Rebecca Patterson, thank you so much for.

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Speaker 4: Great to see you guys.

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Speaker 7: I just wanted just a.

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Speaker 3: Great brief there in this.

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Speaker 2: Pream miser with this JP Morgan Asset Management, a portfolio manager,

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Speaker 2: and I've just got to go to your arch call

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Speaker 2: of lower yields over tow twenty four months. It's prea

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Speaker 2: misra genius Ian lincoln'sat in that chair yesterday it bemo

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Speaker 2: Capital Markets and said out there we will power through

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Speaker 2: four percent well down into a three percent and he

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Speaker 2: frames out two point ninety five percent somewhere out there, distant.

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Speaker 3: Do you have the same overlay price up yield lower

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Speaker 3: lower lower?

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Speaker 8: I do? And here's why.

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Speaker 9: I think the last week, if you didn't think that

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Speaker 9: bonds and stocks were covered were essentially negatively correlated.

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Speaker 8: Well the last week shows you that they are.

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Speaker 9: So you know, if we stay in a soft landing,

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Speaker 9: the interest rates are going to fall because the Fed's

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Speaker 9: going to have to cut.

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Speaker 8: To some normal level.

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Speaker 9: We don't know what that normal is, but it's not

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Speaker 9: five and a half percent, right. If it's three percent

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Speaker 9: and the Fed's cutting all the way down to two

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Speaker 9: and a half to three percent, that tenure is going

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Speaker 9: to fall. If we actually slip into a recession. That's

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Speaker 9: where risk assets are going to struggle, and that's when

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Speaker 9: interest rates are going to fall much below that.

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Speaker 2: Somebody said to me yesterday, they said, what's a single

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Speaker 2: thing we're not talking about?

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Speaker 3: And I talked. I quote it Bruce Kasman.

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Speaker 2: He's an economist at a small bank down on Perk Avenue.

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Speaker 2: Bruce Kasson wrote a piece on global disinflation, and to me,

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Speaker 2: that's the heart of the matter. Fold in the China

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Speaker 2: driven global disinflation into your portfolio management.

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Speaker 9: Absolutely, So I think inflation is extremely global. We saw

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Speaker 9: that on the way up. It's going to happen on

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Speaker 9: the way down. I would argue markets extremely global, but

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Speaker 9: we can sort of focus on I think one or

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Speaker 9: two things at a time. So the last week has

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Speaker 9: all been about the US payroll report or dollar en

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Speaker 9: but look at globally, where is the engine of growth?

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Speaker 9: I think the engine of growth was in the US,

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Speaker 9: and now there's a question there are we slowing to

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Speaker 9: normalizing trend levels? Are we slowing below that? I think

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Speaker 9: that's still an open question. But look elsewhere and global

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Speaker 9: growth is slowing and inflation is decelerating. So I think

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Speaker 9: the market's focus, the Fed's focus has absolutely moved away

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Speaker 9: from inflat. We have a CPR report, and I'm less

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Speaker 9: worried about that next week than I am about you know,

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Speaker 9: initial claims, which is showing up pretty soon.

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Speaker 5: Coming up versus.

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Speaker 6: So what should our federal Reserve be doing? I mean,

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Speaker 6: Monday morning we had discussions of an emergency inter meeting

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Speaker 6: rate cut.

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Speaker 5: On Monday morning early. What do you think the Fed

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Speaker 5: should do?

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Speaker 9: In you know, I think they should start normalizing. We're

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Speaker 9: at five and a half. Inflation is decelerating, you know,

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Speaker 9: globally it's decelerating. In the US, service inflation, wage inflation's

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Speaker 9: all coming down. I think they should absolutely be cutting.

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Speaker 9: Where I've struggled with is this idea of gradual normalization.

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Speaker 8: We know monetary policy works with a lag.

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Speaker 9: So if the labor market, which I Pao said, is

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Speaker 9: back to twenty nineteen levels, if inflation is decelerating close

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Speaker 9: to that two percent, they should absolutely be cutting. I

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Speaker 9: think they should be cutting fast to normal normalition levels.

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Speaker 9: So fifty basis points make sense the inter meeting. I

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Speaker 9: think the market went a little too far for an

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Speaker 9: intermeeting rate cut. I think you need severe financial market stress,

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Speaker 9: which is going to threaten the recovery.

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Speaker 8: So at that point we're talking about either.

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Speaker 9: An institutional failure or markets breaking down.

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Speaker 7: You know.

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Speaker 8: I think the speed of the move.

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Speaker 9: Was interesting, but it is August, you know, there is

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Speaker 9: summer liquidity. Everyone was in the soft landing trades. I

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Speaker 9: don't think we should get carried away about intermeeting cuts,

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Speaker 9: but I think the FED really here should be normalizing.

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Speaker 9: Perhaps they should have started last week, but they can

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Speaker 9: catch up quickly.

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Speaker 5: They can catch up. So what happens when a FED

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Speaker 5: begins to cut? How do they do it?

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Speaker 6: They do it like every meeting, every other meeting, twenty

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Speaker 6: five bass point fifty to fifty basis pots. I can't

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Speaker 6: even remember the last time we were in a cutting cycle.

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Speaker 9: So I think people look at the last cutting cycle,

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Speaker 9: which is COVID, and that's where this intermeeting cut comes in,

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Speaker 9: or they look at the one before that and the

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Speaker 9: fed's cutting really fast. I think this could be a

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Speaker 9: very different cutting cycle, and you know, fairly similar to

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Speaker 9: the hiking cycle. Remember they started, they went aggressively seventy five,

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Speaker 9: multiple seventy fives, and then they slowed down. I actually

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Speaker 9: think this cutting cycle might look similar go fifties all

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Speaker 9: the way to some level of neutral, maybe it's three percent,

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Speaker 9: which is where the FED is at. Then they can

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Speaker 9: slow down, and you know that gives them the opportunity

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Speaker 9: to respond if things slow down. I think, you know

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Speaker 9: the one fifty is not going to the market's going

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Speaker 9: to focus on that dot plot. We're going to get

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Speaker 9: revised dot a revised dot plot in September. Is the

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Speaker 9: FED going to talk about aggressively getting to neutral or

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Speaker 9: are they going to stay on this gradual path and

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Speaker 9: that's when the market's going to get really nervous.

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Speaker 2: I don't want to get you in trouble with Stacy

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Speaker 2: Friedman and general counsel over at JP Morgan, but I

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Speaker 2: got to ask because I think all of global Wall.

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Speaker 3: Street wants to know.

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Speaker 2: You killed it as a strategist and now you're a

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Speaker 2: portfolio manager. What's been the biggest surprise about being quote

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Speaker 2: unquote a portfolio manager?

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Speaker 9: It's the correlations, which as a strategist, I could look

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Speaker 9: at Excel and you know, have a lot of conviction

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Speaker 9: on correlations, and then you live days where the core

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Speaker 9: relation goes from negative to positive across asset classes. Because

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Speaker 9: interst rates was hard enough trying to figure out interest

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Speaker 9: rates and then how does that feed through across portfolios

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Speaker 9: or you know, does it have differential impacts in different

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Speaker 9: parts of credit.

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Speaker 8: That's sort of what I speak.

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Speaker 2: So where's the opportunity now in those differential impacts? That's

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Speaker 2: the key question.

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Speaker 9: So I think I ask it for Jamie. He just

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Speaker 9: emailed me, So there is opportunity. I think high quality

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Speaker 9: spread product. You're locking in yields of five and a

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Speaker 9: half six percent. But here's where where you end of cycle,

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Speaker 9: cost of capital is high. This is where that research

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Speaker 9: background helps. You have to look at companies. You have

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Speaker 9: to look at business models. What are companies doing with debt?

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Speaker 9: I think dispersion is increasing within credit? So do the work,

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Speaker 9: buy high quality spread product and buy some duration.

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Speaker 3: Thirty seconds? Can you frame a sub three percent ten

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Speaker 3: year yield?

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Speaker 2: Not the drama back the negative rates, but can you

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Speaker 2: see price up yield down that much?

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Speaker 8: I can.

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Speaker 9: I think we're normalizing if the Feds, you know, in

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Speaker 9: terms of the economy as of the data right now,

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Speaker 9: if the FED doesn't cut quickly enough, or the lags

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Speaker 9: are long, they were long on the way up, they

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Speaker 9: could be long on the way down. The economy slows

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Speaker 9: into recession, the Fed's cutting to two percent or below.

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Speaker 9: At that point, the tenure is going to be the

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Speaker 9: only thing that investors are going to want.

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Speaker 8: That's when you're going much low.

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Speaker 2: In Neil Prea, thank you so much. Pria Misra is

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Speaker 2: with JP Morgan. This is classic Belski, folks. He writes

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Speaker 2: a mental note paragraph to pay if you hate him,

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Speaker 2: because if it's a six page note, you got to

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Speaker 2: read all six pages. He writes a blistering two paragraph,

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Speaker 2: three paragraph note, which is what everybody calmed down. Figure

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Speaker 2: out what you're going to buy when you have the

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Speaker 2: courage to buy. Brian Belski, Bimo Capital joining us. Now, Brian,

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Speaker 2: what will be the signal for you to take that

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Speaker 2: list of equities you've got and pull the trigger and

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Speaker 2: buy at the margin.

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Speaker 10: Well, good morning.

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Speaker 7: Uh, you know the market seems to be this fire

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Speaker 7: aim ready again, which for us creates great opportunity because

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Speaker 7: we have a process and a discipline.

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Speaker 10: The names that you know we listened in our note

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Speaker 10: this morning are all kind of core names.

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Speaker 7: And because we don't do a lot of or invoke

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Speaker 7: a lot of turnover in our portfolios that we manage

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Speaker 7: for our great wealth management system in both the United

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Speaker 7: States and Canada.

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Speaker 10: Our clients are already invested in those names.

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Speaker 7: And if you take a look at where where there's

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Speaker 7: been blood in the streets, not like a Warner Brothers

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Speaker 7: Discovery today, because obviously there's some operational issues there, but

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Speaker 7: names like Morgan Stanley that were down, or the Apple

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Speaker 7: pull back, or even Lulu Lemon when there's when there's

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Speaker 7: there's strong fundamentals underneath that, Tom, we want to own

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Speaker 7: those names longer term. We've had an opportunity this week

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Speaker 7: to kind of rebalance portfolio.

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Speaker 2: And what's important here, folks, is the adults look at

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Speaker 2: the Bloomberg and they use fundamental technical and economic analysis.

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Speaker 2: Paul the weekly ch, not the daily gyrations. Smooth it

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Speaker 2: out a little, Paul the weekly chart. Take it log arrhythmics,

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Speaker 2: standard and poors five hundred and Belski has his tattooed

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Speaker 2: to his brain. We are perfectly back to the long

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Speaker 2: term bull market moving average using the exponential moving averages

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Speaker 2: I use. We haven't even broken long term support and

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Speaker 2: we're all going to cash.

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Speaker 5: We'll go crazy, Tom.

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Speaker 6: You know, about a million years ago, Brian was a

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Speaker 6: student at Saint Cloud State University. So I had to

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Speaker 6: Google map this, dude. It is practically in Canada. Its

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Speaker 6: way up there in Minnesota, and it's awesome. Exactly the

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Speaker 6: Herbrooks National Hockey Centers, the Change River, I forgot, the

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Speaker 6: Mississippi Rivers.

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Speaker 2: I played with the animals from a Dyna Minnesota. Yeah,

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Speaker 2: and they were like basically junior a player from Canada

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Speaker 2: masquerading as Americans.

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Speaker 3: Continue with Bran.

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Speaker 5: All right, Brian, people were freaking out in Monday morning. Brian,

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Speaker 5: there was a sense of panic in the market here.

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Speaker 5: I mean, did you sense that?

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Speaker 6: And what does that tell you about maybe how investors

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Speaker 6: are thinking about this market?

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Speaker 7: We did, Paul, and you know, it's still the old

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Speaker 7: notion attention spans of nats and oh, by the way,

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Speaker 7: it's gotten worse. We seem to forgotten that August is

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Speaker 7: usually a very bad month, and we've had it in

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Speaker 7: twenty twenty two, in twenty twenty three.

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Speaker 10: But if you go back to the nineties, it was five.

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Speaker 7: Straight years or August we're negative and it's really I mean,

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Speaker 7: especially this year, Paul, I think too, because a lot

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Speaker 7: of people are on vacation and the adults are away

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Speaker 7: quote unquote and I think that's what's caused even this

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Speaker 7: morning with the goofy move in the treasuries off of

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Speaker 7: an employment report, which we are guessing by the way

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Speaker 7: that the employment report is going to be restated and

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Speaker 7: not as bad next month. So I think people are

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Speaker 7: way too Macararion. We've said it on your network before.

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Speaker 7: We think this is like taking candy from a baby,

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Speaker 7: meaning you want to be an investor, you want to

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Speaker 7: buy good companies, you want to buy the dip. And

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Speaker 7: that's the old notion of the Warren Buffett rule, is

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Speaker 7: that you buy when there's blood in the streets and

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Speaker 7: there's lots of emotions.

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Speaker 10: So we're actually excited.

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Speaker 7: About what's gone on because this is actually quite normal.

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Speaker 5: Quite normal.

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Speaker 6: Yeah, a lot of folks Brian has been saying, you know,

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Speaker 6: in a normal bullmark, you do need to see some

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Speaker 6: pullbacks here, five, ten, fifteen, twenty percent. So maybe that's

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Speaker 6: kind of what we saw a little bit here. How

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Speaker 6: about some of these big tech stocks that historically have

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Speaker 6: moved this market higher, they have been weak, there's been

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Speaker 6: that rotation trade.

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Speaker 5: What do you do with some of those big tech

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Speaker 5: stocks here these days?

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Speaker 7: Well, we really continue to believe that from a thematic basis,

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Speaker 7: those big tech stocks we call.

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Speaker 10: Them super seven are really your.

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Speaker 7: Consumer staple stocks now, and you keep core positions there,

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Speaker 7: much like Warren Buffett did. By the way, he just

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Speaker 7: sold a little Apple. He was way overweighted and he's

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Speaker 7: owned the stock for twenty plus years. So I think

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Speaker 7: that's been way too there's been way too much negativity

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Speaker 7: surrounding that. But then you start buying these other tech

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Speaker 7: stocks like Palentier, an Oracle.

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Speaker 10: And amd in Qualcommon, Broadcom.

441
00:21:03,440 --> 00:21:05,960
Speaker 7: But I think I think what people are missing is

442
00:21:05,960 --> 00:21:07,720
Speaker 7: the broadening out effect of owning a.

443
00:21:07,720 --> 00:21:08,640
Speaker 10: Little bit of everything.

444
00:21:08,880 --> 00:21:11,479
Speaker 7: It means small MidCap stocks, it means value stocks, it

445
00:21:11,520 --> 00:21:15,840
Speaker 7: means mantles, it means playing themes and being more fundamental.

446
00:21:16,400 --> 00:21:19,360
Speaker 2: Brian one final question I got, Well, you know it's

447
00:21:19,359 --> 00:21:20,240
Speaker 2: all this tech love.

448
00:21:20,280 --> 00:21:22,600
Speaker 3: I get it. I don't even know what palingtary is.

449
00:21:23,359 --> 00:21:24,840
Speaker 3: What do you do with Walmart?

450
00:21:24,960 --> 00:21:28,160
Speaker 2: I got a company who with single digit revenue growth, poppin'

451
00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:32,040
Speaker 2: a forward twenty seven to twenty eight multiple as well.

452
00:21:32,720 --> 00:21:37,040
Speaker 2: Is there finally now an opportunity with these slow revenue

453
00:21:37,080 --> 00:21:39,520
Speaker 2: growers with these huge valuations?

454
00:21:39,800 --> 00:21:41,560
Speaker 3: What do you do with Walmart?

455
00:21:42,040 --> 00:21:43,600
Speaker 10: We love Walmart.

456
00:21:43,680 --> 00:21:46,159
Speaker 7: We own it in three or four portfolios in the

457
00:21:46,160 --> 00:21:49,520
Speaker 7: consumer stable space, our core names are Costco and Walmart.

458
00:21:49,560 --> 00:21:50,760
Speaker 10: Who's not going to shop there?

459
00:21:50,800 --> 00:21:55,240
Speaker 7: And especially considering if people are worried about stretching their dollar,

460
00:21:55,280 --> 00:21:56,919
Speaker 7: they're going to go to Walmart and they're certainly going

461
00:21:57,000 --> 00:21:59,479
Speaker 7: to go to Costco. And I think Walmart's done an

462
00:21:59,480 --> 00:22:01,920
Speaker 7: amazing job on their web platform as well.

463
00:22:01,960 --> 00:22:03,040
Speaker 10: I think it's a name that.

464
00:22:03,280 --> 00:22:05,639
Speaker 7: I actually a lot of core people don't own the

465
00:22:05,680 --> 00:22:07,800
Speaker 7: stock and core portfolio, so I think there's a real

466
00:22:07,800 --> 00:22:09,520
Speaker 7: opportunity longer term there as well.

467
00:22:09,720 --> 00:22:11,360
Speaker 2: Lisa, do you want to drop in a question here

468
00:22:11,400 --> 00:22:14,399
Speaker 2: on Costco to mister Belski here? I mean she is

469
00:22:14,480 --> 00:22:17,560
Speaker 2: our securities analyst on a dollar fifty hot dog.

470
00:22:17,880 --> 00:22:21,199
Speaker 1: You know they are increasing their membership, but that's how

471
00:22:21,240 --> 00:22:22,760
Speaker 1: they make most of their money. Is this where some

472
00:22:22,760 --> 00:22:26,359
Speaker 1: of these retailers are going to go toward more the membership? Whew?

473
00:22:26,440 --> 00:22:28,280
Speaker 1: Do is that going to track more people in?

474
00:22:29,359 --> 00:22:31,400
Speaker 10: I think that might be part of it too, Lacy.

475
00:22:31,480 --> 00:22:35,080
Speaker 7: You remember here in America's heartland in Minnesota, I mean,

476
00:22:35,119 --> 00:22:39,240
Speaker 7: we sit and stand in line to get gas at Costco.

477
00:22:39,480 --> 00:22:42,480
Speaker 10: Because we're very cost conscious. The American consumer.

478
00:22:42,080 --> 00:22:44,720
Speaker 7: Is super smartly, so you know, they have one hundred dollars,

479
00:22:44,760 --> 00:22:46,520
Speaker 7: they're going to spend it where they can get the

480
00:22:46,520 --> 00:22:48,639
Speaker 7: most for one hundred dollars. And so I think that

481
00:22:48,720 --> 00:22:52,520
Speaker 7: we can't discount how strong and consistent the US consumer is.

482
00:22:52,960 --> 00:22:54,760
Speaker 3: How do the Vikings look this year? Brian?

483
00:22:54,800 --> 00:22:57,000
Speaker 2: We got to go, but I mean, is this finally

484
00:22:57,000 --> 00:22:59,040
Speaker 2: where the Vikings get their act together?

485
00:23:00,080 --> 00:23:03,080
Speaker 10: We're all excited. You got training. Have we got a

486
00:23:03,080 --> 00:23:06,040
Speaker 10: new quarterback? Which means probably we're not going to do

487
00:23:06,160 --> 00:23:06,439
Speaker 10: very well.

488
00:23:06,880 --> 00:23:09,919
Speaker 11: Good Brian Belski, thank you so much with your Vikings

489
00:23:09,960 --> 00:23:20,640
Speaker 11: update from Minnesota.

490
00:23:22,200 --> 00:23:23,000
Speaker 3: Your daily look at.

491
00:23:22,960 --> 00:23:24,960
Speaker 2: The front pages at least a mateo hour.

492
00:23:25,480 --> 00:23:28,120
Speaker 3: Tell me we're bumble free on the newspaper.

493
00:23:28,440 --> 00:23:32,880
Speaker 1: We are bumble free, but not Costco free. It's about Costco.

494
00:23:32,960 --> 00:23:35,200
Speaker 1: You know, I had to go and start there. Okay,

495
00:23:35,240 --> 00:23:37,720
Speaker 1: they are cracking down on the membership sharing, kind of

496
00:23:37,760 --> 00:23:40,760
Speaker 1: like Netflix is doing the same thing. Uh, the problem

497
00:23:40,800 --> 00:23:42,720
Speaker 1: is that too many people are sharing it. They're going

498
00:23:42,800 --> 00:23:44,480
Speaker 1: into I don't know if either of you have been

499
00:23:44,480 --> 00:23:47,120
Speaker 1: to a Costco, but when you go in, there's someone

500
00:23:47,119 --> 00:23:49,560
Speaker 1: at the door who checks your ID, but the picture

501
00:23:49,640 --> 00:23:52,040
Speaker 1: is really small. They can't see it. They just you know,

502
00:23:52,080 --> 00:23:54,480
Speaker 1: wave you and just go in. You know, I wipe

503
00:23:54,520 --> 00:23:55,200
Speaker 1: my app.

504
00:23:54,960 --> 00:23:57,119
Speaker 5: And they just say yes or go ahead, so you're

505
00:23:57,119 --> 00:23:57,520
Speaker 5: a member.

506
00:23:57,600 --> 00:23:58,280
Speaker 1: So I'm a member.

507
00:23:58,359 --> 00:23:58,760
Speaker 5: Yeah.

508
00:23:58,800 --> 00:24:02,040
Speaker 1: So they're starting to do is they're having these ID

509
00:24:02,160 --> 00:24:04,800
Speaker 1: scanners so that when you go in, now what's going

510
00:24:04,880 --> 00:24:07,120
Speaker 1: to happen is that you scan it and it comes

511
00:24:07,200 --> 00:24:09,800
Speaker 1: up on this bigger screen so they can actually see

512
00:24:09,840 --> 00:24:11,680
Speaker 1: the picture and say, oh, yeah.

513
00:24:11,520 --> 00:24:12,680
Speaker 8: That's you things.

514
00:24:13,200 --> 00:24:14,159
Speaker 5: Are people really doing that?

515
00:24:14,359 --> 00:24:16,439
Speaker 1: People are really doing that. They're just all they're doing

516
00:24:16,480 --> 00:24:17,480
Speaker 1: because they don't really look at it.

517
00:24:17,480 --> 00:24:18,600
Speaker 5: Which a cost come membership.

518
00:24:19,240 --> 00:24:23,719
Speaker 1: I have the higher versus shots. Yeah, that's about one

519
00:24:23,800 --> 00:24:26,639
Speaker 1: hundred and thirty dollars. The fees are going up in September,

520
00:24:26,760 --> 00:24:29,160
Speaker 1: right the first time in seven years. For me, it's

521
00:24:29,200 --> 00:24:32,119
Speaker 1: worth it because you get a percent back. So at

522
00:24:32,119 --> 00:24:33,520
Speaker 1: the end of the year, I get a check that

523
00:24:33,560 --> 00:24:34,359
Speaker 1: basically pays for it.

524
00:24:34,520 --> 00:24:35,080
Speaker 5: Is it nice?

525
00:24:35,400 --> 00:24:37,280
Speaker 3: Is it the same as the magic?

526
00:24:37,359 --> 00:24:40,680
Speaker 2: It was like in Red Too, when Mary Louise Parker's

527
00:24:40,720 --> 00:24:43,720
Speaker 2: in there and you know John Malkovich is in there

528
00:24:43,760 --> 00:24:44,400
Speaker 2: and there.

529
00:24:44,200 --> 00:24:47,760
Speaker 3: Like an aisle four with the Kirkland toilet paper and.

530
00:24:47,640 --> 00:24:49,560
Speaker 5: That is Costco toilet.

531
00:24:49,680 --> 00:24:52,280
Speaker 2: This is Costco the same as it was when Bruce

532
00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:54,080
Speaker 2: Willis made that great movie.

533
00:24:54,160 --> 00:24:57,520
Speaker 1: I think, hey, the hot dog price is still the same,

534
00:24:57,680 --> 00:24:58,280
Speaker 1: all right.

535
00:24:58,520 --> 00:25:00,240
Speaker 3: But the Kirkland item is not.

536
00:25:00,320 --> 00:25:02,679
Speaker 1: As well next so yeah, they're cracking down on that.

537
00:25:03,480 --> 00:25:03,880
Speaker 5: Okay.

538
00:25:04,000 --> 00:25:06,760
Speaker 1: A new report shows a pandemic shifted US jobs away

539
00:25:06,760 --> 00:25:07,840
Speaker 1: from big cities.

540
00:25:07,560 --> 00:25:08,520
Speaker 8: Into smaller metros.

541
00:25:08,520 --> 00:25:09,920
Speaker 1: So I'm gonna break this down for you. This is

542
00:25:09,960 --> 00:25:13,600
Speaker 1: from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York analysis job listings.

543
00:25:13,800 --> 00:25:16,400
Speaker 1: Large central metro areas now count for about thirty eight

544
00:25:16,440 --> 00:25:18,120
Speaker 1: percent of total listings nationwide.

545
00:25:18,119 --> 00:25:18,880
Speaker 8: That's down from.

546
00:25:18,720 --> 00:25:22,680
Speaker 1: Forty six percent pre pandemic, and the portion of job

547
00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:25,760
Speaker 1: bob making in smaller metros that increase. There's also a

548
00:25:25,800 --> 00:25:28,399
Speaker 1: shift in the type of jobs. You have postings for

549
00:25:28,480 --> 00:25:32,520
Speaker 1: jobs related to computers, math that fell, and then job

550
00:25:32,520 --> 00:25:36,000
Speaker 1: listings and healthcare that rose. And they say, why, Well,

551
00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:38,320
Speaker 1: what's the reason behind? Well, it's remote work.

552
00:25:38,400 --> 00:25:38,640
Speaker 9: Okay.

553
00:25:38,720 --> 00:25:41,320
Speaker 1: People are moving away from the big cities because they

554
00:25:41,359 --> 00:25:44,720
Speaker 1: can work remotely from wherever. And as they start to relocate,

555
00:25:44,800 --> 00:25:47,360
Speaker 1: then you have people who are needed for let's say,

556
00:25:47,400 --> 00:25:50,560
Speaker 1: food workers, healthcare, other services. So that's the reason.

557
00:25:50,440 --> 00:25:53,920
Speaker 2: Paul Chef were up to speed on this I'm thunderstruck

558
00:25:54,400 --> 00:25:58,280
Speaker 2: by how empty the streets of New York are. Selected times,

559
00:25:58,800 --> 00:26:01,399
Speaker 2: it's like, you gotta, can we say work from home?

560
00:26:01,640 --> 00:26:03,240
Speaker 5: I think, I think it is.

561
00:26:03,280 --> 00:26:05,200
Speaker 3: Full disclosure and I think this is nuts.

562
00:26:05,280 --> 00:26:07,479
Speaker 6: But no, I think you're right, Tom. I think you're right.

563
00:26:07,520 --> 00:26:10,000
Speaker 6: I think and again, I just think about my own offspring.

564
00:26:10,119 --> 00:26:12,800
Speaker 6: It's part of their That's just how they view the

565
00:26:12,840 --> 00:26:16,040
Speaker 6: workforce as a as a hybrid kind of environment.

566
00:26:16,080 --> 00:26:16,760
Speaker 5: That's where we are.

567
00:26:17,480 --> 00:26:18,479
Speaker 1: Are they doing the hybrid?

568
00:26:20,680 --> 00:26:26,480
Speaker 6: Yes, even like fidelity. My son works a fidelity hybrid Universal.

569
00:26:26,119 --> 00:26:29,280
Speaker 3: Music group of Peter Lynch was never hot.

570
00:26:29,320 --> 00:26:32,280
Speaker 6: I tell you what is the defence contractors my son

571
00:26:32,320 --> 00:26:33,560
Speaker 6: works for, not hybrid?

572
00:26:33,680 --> 00:26:37,119
Speaker 3: Is bumble work from home home?

573
00:26:38,160 --> 00:26:41,000
Speaker 1: Okay, Well, we've been talking about the rivers sin right,

574
00:26:41,040 --> 00:26:43,480
Speaker 1: and if the water is safe, if it's not safe

575
00:26:43,520 --> 00:26:45,959
Speaker 1: as they get ready to start the swim, I think

576
00:26:46,000 --> 00:26:50,000
Speaker 1: the women start today. So there's something going around that

577
00:26:50,240 --> 00:26:53,520
Speaker 1: the swimmers are drinking a can of coke that is

578
00:26:53,560 --> 00:26:56,200
Speaker 1: a secret to not getting sick after you get into

579
00:26:56,240 --> 00:26:59,560
Speaker 1: the water. There's reasons behind this. Okay, it's not proven.

580
00:26:59,640 --> 00:27:01,520
Speaker 1: Just want to put that out there. There's no medical

581
00:27:01,560 --> 00:27:05,280
Speaker 1: evidence for this whatsoever. But they say they're fans of it.

582
00:27:05,680 --> 00:27:08,879
Speaker 1: The reason is because the acidity works as this like

583
00:27:09,160 --> 00:27:12,800
Speaker 1: quasi bleach for your digestive track, so.

584
00:27:13,600 --> 00:27:15,200
Speaker 8: You don't get sick that way.

585
00:27:15,240 --> 00:27:15,879
Speaker 5: I mean, think of it.

586
00:27:15,880 --> 00:27:17,160
Speaker 1: If you take a can of coca and you pour

587
00:27:17,200 --> 00:27:18,480
Speaker 1: it down your drain, it clears it out.

588
00:27:19,040 --> 00:27:22,840
Speaker 2: Wait, wait a minute, is this plus for Atlanta?

589
00:27:23,640 --> 00:27:24,680
Speaker 3: Which is this? Well?

590
00:27:24,720 --> 00:27:27,200
Speaker 6: I mean after a big night out. So many days

591
00:27:27,200 --> 00:27:30,280
Speaker 6: I've said there's nothing better in this world than coca cola.

592
00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:33,679
Speaker 5: Really, oh my god. It just revives you like nothing

593
00:27:33,680 --> 00:27:34,280
Speaker 5: else in the world.

594
00:27:34,359 --> 00:27:37,000
Speaker 1: But the athletes like it because of that sugar rush too,

595
00:27:37,000 --> 00:27:39,920
Speaker 1: because it returns like those glycic gin levels that they.

596
00:27:40,280 --> 00:27:43,119
Speaker 6: And you have Coca cola and Mateo house. Never I

597
00:27:43,119 --> 00:27:46,320
Speaker 6: mean again reason number like three thousand. I'm never going

598
00:27:46,320 --> 00:27:47,480
Speaker 6: into the Mateo household.

599
00:27:47,720 --> 00:27:48,560
Speaker 5: No Coca cola.

600
00:27:48,840 --> 00:27:51,399
Speaker 1: It's sorry, sorry, too much sugar, too much sugar.

601
00:27:51,560 --> 00:27:55,360
Speaker 3: Lisa Mateo. Thank Lisa Mateo with a newspapers today. Thank

602
00:27:55,400 --> 00:27:55,840
Speaker 3: you so much.

603
00:27:56,000 --> 00:27:56,520
Speaker 5: Wait, there's.

604
00:27:58,440 --> 00:28:01,760
Speaker 1: Have video to go with this bowl on it next

605
00:28:02,320 --> 00:28:02,800
Speaker 1: this one.

606
00:28:02,920 --> 00:28:05,760
Speaker 5: Okay, we have the video. There were these dogs.

607
00:28:05,800 --> 00:28:07,639
Speaker 1: There's video of the dogs in the house and what

608
00:28:07,720 --> 00:28:10,080
Speaker 1: happens is that Make sure you keep Vet Bill and

609
00:28:10,160 --> 00:28:14,399
Speaker 1: Kennelfey away from your cell phone battery. Pat, okay, because

610
00:28:14,440 --> 00:28:15,800
Speaker 1: you see the dog, he's biting on it.

611
00:28:15,880 --> 00:28:16,600
Speaker 5: He's chewing on it.

612
00:28:16,640 --> 00:28:18,760
Speaker 1: If you're watching on YouTube, you can watch along with us.

613
00:28:18,840 --> 00:28:21,400
Speaker 1: And all of a sudden it starts to spark up. Oh,

614
00:28:21,480 --> 00:28:23,719
Speaker 1: and he jumps, and he jumps off the bed and

615
00:28:23,760 --> 00:28:26,480
Speaker 1: it bursts into flames because he's on his pet bed.

616
00:28:26,680 --> 00:28:28,640
Speaker 1: So the other dog runs for the hills. And now

617
00:28:28,640 --> 00:28:30,280
Speaker 1: he's saying, what are you an idiot?

618
00:28:30,280 --> 00:28:31,040
Speaker 5: What were you doing?

619
00:28:31,119 --> 00:28:31,359
Speaker 7: Dog?

620
00:28:31,960 --> 00:28:35,320
Speaker 1: So the two dogs and the cat scooch out the

621
00:28:35,359 --> 00:28:35,880
Speaker 1: dog door.

622
00:28:36,160 --> 00:28:37,560
Speaker 5: They're saved. No one's hurt.

623
00:28:37,600 --> 00:28:40,480
Speaker 1: That's the main idea here this story. But the lesson

624
00:28:40,600 --> 00:28:43,120
Speaker 1: learned is these things can be kind of dangerous.

625
00:28:43,120 --> 00:28:43,520
Speaker 8: It's serious.

626
00:28:43,600 --> 00:28:45,520
Speaker 2: John Tucker's really let on this. So I think John's

627
00:28:45,520 --> 00:28:47,520
Speaker 2: did some great reporting on him. Sorry, he's not here,

628
00:28:47,560 --> 00:28:52,840
Speaker 2: he's looking at Siberian Olympic outtakes. But but Paul, I'm

629
00:28:52,880 --> 00:28:55,520
Speaker 2: sorry for Mayor Adams in New York City, there's no

630
00:28:55,600 --> 00:28:57,280
Speaker 2: more serious there.

631
00:28:58,320 --> 00:29:00,960
Speaker 6: The FDNY will tell you this is a huge, huge

632
00:29:01,200 --> 00:29:03,840
Speaker 6: him that puts their firefighters at risk. And I learned

633
00:29:03,840 --> 00:29:05,480
Speaker 6: this a long time ago with my oldest son who

634
00:29:05,520 --> 00:29:08,200
Speaker 6: was into all these those battery packs for his various

635
00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:12,800
Speaker 6: RV vehicles, and he would store them out in the garage.

636
00:29:12,840 --> 00:29:14,320
Speaker 6: You would never bring him the home, put him any

637
00:29:14,320 --> 00:29:17,360
Speaker 6: special wraps and special containers because he was trying to

638
00:29:17,360 --> 00:29:19,400
Speaker 6: explain how right and sure enough?

639
00:29:19,440 --> 00:29:22,480
Speaker 3: Okay, I'm not good at this. Does a vespa have

640
00:29:22,560 --> 00:29:23,560
Speaker 3: a lithium battery?

641
00:29:23,720 --> 00:29:25,640
Speaker 5: No it does not. We are gasoline power.

642
00:29:26,080 --> 00:29:31,080
Speaker 2: Okay, there safety on the Jersey. Sure, Lisa Mateo, thank

643
00:29:31,120 --> 00:29:34,480
Speaker 2: you so much for the newspapers. This is a Bloomberg

644
00:29:34,560 --> 00:29:38,960
Speaker 2: Surveillance podcast, bringing you the best in economics, finance, investment,

645
00:29:39,160 --> 00:29:42,800
Speaker 2: and international relations. You can also watch the show live

646
00:29:43,000 --> 00:29:43,680
Speaker 2: on YouTube.

647
00:29:44,080 --> 00:29:45,560
Speaker 3: Visit the Bloomberg.

648
00:29:45,160 --> 00:29:49,680
Speaker 2: Podcast channel on YouTube to see the show weekday mornings

649
00:29:49,680 --> 00:29:52,000
Speaker 2: from seven to ten am Eastern from our.

650
00:29:51,880 --> 00:29:54,040
Speaker 3: Global headquarters in New York City.

651
00:29:54,400 --> 00:29:58,200
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652
00:29:58,240 --> 00:30:01,600
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653
00:30:01,720 --> 00:30:04,240
Speaker 3: Terminal, and the Bloomberg Business App.