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Speaker 1: Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, radio news.

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Speaker 2: This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast. I'm Brian Curtis

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Speaker 2: along with Doug Krisner join us each day for the

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Speaker 2: stories making news and moving markets in the Asia Pacific.

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Speaker 2: You can subscribe to the show anywhere you get your

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Speaker 2: podcasts and always on Bloomberg Radio, the Bloomberg Terminal, and

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Speaker 2: the Bloomberg Business App.

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Speaker 3: We welcome our guest, David Chow. He is a global

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Speaker 3: market strategist for the Asia Pacific at Invesco, joining us

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Speaker 3: from Hong Kong. David, it's always a pleasure. So what

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Speaker 3: do you think is the bigger driver these days? It's

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Speaker 3: this euphoria over AI or the euphoria that we're going

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Speaker 3: to get rate cuts in the US.

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Speaker 4: Well, I think that it depends on where you're sitting. Certainly,

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Speaker 4: the euphoria over a cuts to the FED policy has

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Speaker 4: more of a global phenomenon, especially to urging markets. Now

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Speaker 4: the fourrea over AI that certainly benefits more kind of

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Speaker 4: Northeast Asian economies and stock markets.

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Speaker 3: In terms of the FED. We heard last week on

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Speaker 3: Friday from Chair J. Powell at the Jackson Hole Symposium.

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Speaker 3: So it's a foregone conclusion. I think that we're going

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Speaker 3: to get a rate cut at the September meeting. Right now,

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Speaker 3: the swaps market is pricing in maybe as much as

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Speaker 3: one hundred basis points of easing one full percentage point

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Speaker 3: worth of cuts between now and the end of the year.

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Speaker 3: Do you think that's a little too aggressive on the

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Speaker 3: part of the swaps market.

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Speaker 4: Yes, I think that's a that's a bit too much,

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Speaker 4: because the economic data points that we're looking at continue

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Speaker 4: to be a bit mixed. The most recent consumer confidence

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Speaker 4: and sentiment data points show surprisingly strength, but yet the

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Speaker 4: labor data is, you know, more mixed. So I think that,

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Speaker 4: and then we're watching the the inflation data set to

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Speaker 4: come out shortly. So I think that given all these indicators,

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Speaker 4: that suggests that we'll get cuts, but perhaps twenty five

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Speaker 4: basis points and two of them before the end of

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Speaker 4: the year, less than the one hundred basis points that

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Speaker 4: the markets may be pricing in.

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Speaker 3: So, as you know, before Powell spoke, we heard from

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Speaker 3: the BOJ Governor Kazuwa Oweita, and he was saying last

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Speaker 3: Friday that the BOJ will likely continue raising interest rates.

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Speaker 3: Do you think we're going to get a higher rate

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Speaker 3: adjustment from the BOJ before the end of the year.

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Speaker 4: I think we'll have perhaps one more rate hike around

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Speaker 4: ten basis points from the BOJ, you know, sooner rather

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Speaker 4: than later, and that certainly would have an impact on

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Speaker 4: strengthening the Japanese yen. But the BOJ was very clear

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Speaker 4: after the reacon volatility that they're going to be slow

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Speaker 4: and they're going to be also data reliant. We continue

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Speaker 4: to watch for domestic consumption to improve in Japan. I

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Speaker 4: think that certainly is a missing piece for Japanese equities

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Speaker 4: to trend higher over the next six months.

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Speaker 3: How are the exporters, in your view in Japan faring

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Speaker 3: these days, particularly when you consider that the number one

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Speaker 3: trading partner for Japan is China and we know that

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Speaker 3: things on the mainland are still pretty sluggish.

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Speaker 4: Well, let me just say there is a big misperception

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Speaker 4: that if the Japanese yen strengthens, that's bad for Japanese

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Speaker 4: equities because the exporters would lose out. But if you

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Speaker 4: look at which companies have done well so far this

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Speaker 4: year because of the Japanese economy or the end, it's

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Speaker 4: really the financial stocks and Japanese banks and brokers insures.

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Speaker 4: They're the ones that have been benefiting. So I don't

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Speaker 4: think I think there's a misperception there that if the

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Speaker 4: Japanese yen strengthens and then the equity market should face headwinds. Now,

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Speaker 4: when it comes to Japanese experts, let me just say

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Speaker 4: that it's been a long time since japan has been

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Speaker 4: investing in their supply chains, you know, over decades, and

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Speaker 4: so just because one market might be you know, face

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Speaker 4: some pressures or some disentanglement, and that doesn't mean to

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Speaker 4: say that there aren't additional markets. Japanese experts have been

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Speaker 4: investing significantly in Southeast Asia, you know, Indonesia, Vietnam, Singapore,

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Speaker 4: and I think that you know, these are other markets

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Speaker 4: that they can sell to and also produce in.

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Speaker 3: Well, let's talk a little bit about China. I mean,

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Speaker 3: and I'm wondering whether or not you're encouraged by the

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Speaker 3: small measures undertaken by the government to try to turn

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Speaker 3: things around. I mean, doesn't seem to be working. I mean,

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Speaker 3: do we need to give it a lot more time?

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Speaker 4: Well, I think we need to see more significant stimulus measures.

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Speaker 4: So far, there have been kind of bits and pieces

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Speaker 4: here and there, you know, small cuts to the policy rate,

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Speaker 4: you know, a bit of easing on the property market.

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Speaker 4: I don't think that we're going to get the big

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Speaker 4: bazukas stimulus such as what we got, you know, in

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Speaker 4: two thousand and eight, two thousand and nine. But I

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Speaker 4: think that what we need is more signals from the

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Speaker 4: government that they are very focused on ensuring that growth

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Speaker 4: is back on track for that five percent growth target,

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Speaker 4: and also to ensure that the property market, you know,

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Speaker 4: finds a floor.

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Speaker 3: But the deflation story I don't think can be argued, right.

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Speaker 3: I mean, China seems to be mired in that and

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Speaker 3: some people had said a while back that if the

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Speaker 3: government didn't take more aggressive steps, maybe there was a

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Speaker 3: slight chance that China could become what Japan was thirty

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Speaker 3: years ago.

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Speaker 4: Well, I think the big question is how much longer

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Speaker 4: will the property market languish? And if you look at

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Speaker 4: all the property crisis over the past thirty years, I

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Speaker 4: mean they're over like twenty examples to look at. You know,

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Speaker 4: the average kind of boom to bust time is around

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Speaker 4: seven years, and so China, you know, the property market

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Speaker 4: has been in the dol drums run three years. So

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Speaker 4: there could be a bit longer period that we may

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Speaker 4: be facing these headwinds. But in the meantime, the economy

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Speaker 4: continues to chug along, especially on exports.

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Speaker 5: Uh.

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Speaker 4: They did a big bet, President, She made a big

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Speaker 4: bet in terms of trying to further industrialize the economy,

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Speaker 4: to really focus on manufacturing, CAPEC spending, and that has

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Speaker 4: been a very strong juggernaut for the economy.

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Speaker 3: No doubt about that. But I'm wondering that there may

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Speaker 3: be at the same time a bit of an overcapacity problem.

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Speaker 3: And I'm cautious in using that term, but nonetheless, I

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Speaker 3: mean it's one of the reasons that the US and

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Speaker 3: and the members of the European Union are upset with

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Speaker 3: the degree of pressure that China is applying on exports.

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Speaker 1: That's right.

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Speaker 4: I mean, it's a double edged sword. Only kind of

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Speaker 4: one out of three propellers of your economy is working.

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Speaker 4: You certainly want to kind of juice that propeller. But

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Speaker 4: certainly I don't think that the you know, policies makers

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Speaker 4: could have foreseen some of the blowback from the US

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Speaker 4: or Europe. But let me say that, you know, while

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Speaker 4: the US and Europe you know, are not a fan

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Speaker 4: of Chinese evs. Other places are like in Brazil, and

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Speaker 4: you know African economies they may not replace that of

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Speaker 4: the US or European economies, but certainly there. You know,

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Speaker 4: global trade is a funny thing. It's like a balloon.

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Speaker 4: You squeeze in one place, it kind of just goes

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Speaker 4: to another. So I don't think that it's it's a

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Speaker 4: big problem.

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Speaker 3: We'll leave it there. David, always a pleasure, Thanks so much.

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Speaker 3: David Chao from Invesco joining us here on a daybreak Asia.

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Speaker 3: David is a global market strategist for the Asia Pacific.

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Speaker 3: President Biden's top national security a Jake Sullivan, was in

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Speaker 3: Beijing meeting with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Let's take

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Speaker 3: a closer look now with our own Jenny Marsh Bloomberg

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Speaker 3: Team leader for Greater China EKO Gov. Jenny, the timing

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Speaker 3: is curious. I think we can agree there's going to

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Speaker 3: be a new US administration in January. Is it possible

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Speaker 3: that that President Biden may go to China or at

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Speaker 3: least meet with Chinese President Chi Jinping? Are we seeing

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Speaker 3: the groundwork for that potentially being laid?

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Speaker 5: I mean that's what you would normally expect from a

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Speaker 5: trip like this. You know, you would expect a senior

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Speaker 5: White House official like Jake Sullivan to be laying the

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Speaker 5: groundwork for a Biden visit to China. And you know,

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Speaker 5: if he does leave office in January without visiting China,

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Speaker 5: he will be the first US president to do so

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Speaker 5: since Jimmy Carters. That's four decades of president that he'll

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Speaker 5: be breaking. But I think the answer probably is no.

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Speaker 5: Just looking at the calendar now in the US going

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Speaker 5: forward with the election, I don't think it makes sense

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Speaker 5: for Biden to make a trip to China. But that

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Speaker 5: being said, both Biden and She ahead into the D

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Speaker 5: twenty or are expected to certainly in Brazil in November,

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Speaker 5: so that will be their sort of final chance to

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Speaker 5: come together as world leaders and sort of have a

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Speaker 5: partying conversation. But I think in terms of abiden trip

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Speaker 5: to China, I think, you know, COVID really held him

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Speaker 5: back from that. And now I think the windows.

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Speaker 3: Closed describe for me where we stand in relations between

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Speaker 3: Beijing and Washington right now. Is there been a bit

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Speaker 3: of a thaw.

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Speaker 5: You know, I think thaw might be just slightly too optimistic,

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Speaker 5: you know, I think they yeah, you know, I think

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Speaker 5: they have reached. They found a way to find a

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Speaker 5: firm footing, so things aren't going to spiral like they

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Speaker 5: did after the spy balloons or drifted across the US

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Speaker 5: and all bets were off and the meetings were canceled.

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Speaker 5: They found a way to keep talking, to keep dialogue open,

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Speaker 5: and they kind of believe that will stabilize the relationship

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Speaker 5: and in terms of you know, what they see eye

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Speaker 5: to eye on and how the actual sort of the

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Speaker 5: health of the relationship. You know, Canada announced all these

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Speaker 5: tariffs ev tariffs on China just as Sullivan was arriving

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Speaker 5: in China, mirroring US industrial policy, and you know, the

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Speaker 5: US is corraling its allies to sort of stand behind

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Speaker 5: it and sort of fighting against what it caused a

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Speaker 5: flood of cheap Chinese exports. It's backing up. It's sort

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Speaker 5: of military partners in the region around China where China's

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Speaker 5: having these sort of territorial disputes. You know, I think

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Speaker 5: from China's point of view, the US is sort of

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Speaker 5: really becoming more powerful at joining forces with other major

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Speaker 5: nations and prosecuting its policy against China. And so I

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Speaker 5: think for China it's like very hard to balance this

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Speaker 5: idea of competition and also at the same time being partners,

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Speaker 5: and that's what the US wants. But you know, there's

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Speaker 5: so much friction building in the relationship around trade that

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Speaker 5: you know, it's hard to see how these two countries

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Speaker 5: sort of can work together in many areas going forward.

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Speaker 3: And if the Biden administration is known for one thing

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Speaker 3: I think you must include as it relates to China,

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Speaker 3: in particular, the export controls on some of the advanced

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Speaker 3: semiconductor technology, and that to some extent has held China's

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Speaker 3: technical aspirations back just a little bit. Do you think

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Speaker 3: that there is going on right now in Beijing a

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Speaker 3: sense of what Kamala Harris I think Beijing has dealt

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Speaker 3: Chi Jinping has dealt with Donald Trump in the past. Yes,

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Speaker 3: there is a bit of mercurial nature there and an unpredictability.

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Speaker 3: I guess that we can be said fairly. But in

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Speaker 3: terms of a potential Harris administration, how do you think

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Speaker 3: Beijing is viewing her candidacy.

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Speaker 5: I think, you know, broadly speaking, she sees continuity from Biden.

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Speaker 5: You know, she's been his vice president. She hasn't said

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Speaker 5: anything to suggest that she would deviate from his foreign policy.

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Speaker 5: She's expected to remain tough on China because, you know,

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Speaker 5: if nothing else, that is a bipartisan issue. But I

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Speaker 5: think also she's a bit unknown, she's a bit untested

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Speaker 5: on foreign policy. There's very little and beat on the

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Speaker 5: bones in terms of her comments, you know, about how

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Speaker 5: she personally feels about China. So there's probably a feeling

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Speaker 5: engaging right now, you know, of just like waiting to

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Speaker 5: see you know, these interviews that are coming up that

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Speaker 5: she's going to do, this one with CNN, the tential

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Speaker 5: debate with Trump. You know, maybe she'll makes some more

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Speaker 5: comments then her DNC speech she touched on Ukraine, Russia,

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Speaker 5: and Israel, but she didn't sort of elaborate on China

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Speaker 5: at all. So I think it's still like wade and

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Speaker 5: see if she sort of does say anything that sort

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Speaker 5: of differentiates her from Biden. But I think right now

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Speaker 5: she's seen as a continuity candidate. But you know, for Biden,

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Speaker 5: this stuff foreign policy was like front and center for him.

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Speaker 5: It was really one of the things he was sort

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Speaker 5: of most passionate about on his agenda, and China in particular,

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Speaker 5: you know, particularly given his relationship with she. So I

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Speaker 5: guess there is a chance, because she isn't someone who

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Speaker 5: comes from a strong foreign policy background, that she takes

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Speaker 5: the foot off the gas a little bit. But you know,

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Speaker 5: I think we're really still waiting for her to kind

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Speaker 5: of come out and lay out her foreign policy agenda.

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Speaker 3: You mentioned the G twenty meeting in November. What is

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Speaker 3: China hoping to accomplish here? Is there a goal or

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Speaker 3: a couple of aims on the part of President she.

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Speaker 5: You know, I think it's going to be the specifically

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Speaker 5: when if she meets Biden at the G twenty, it's

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Speaker 5: going to be I think just you know, passing goodbye

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Speaker 5: in a way really because I have to check the dates,

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Speaker 5: but I think it will come after the election, so

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Speaker 5: he will know by then if it will be Harris

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Speaker 5: or if it will be Trump who is coming into

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Speaker 5: the White House in January. If it's Harris, then he

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Speaker 5: has a channel, you know, Democrat to Democrat to perhaps

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Speaker 5: pass on a message to Kamala into the new administration.

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Speaker 5: You know, if it's Trump, this meeting with Biden, they

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Speaker 5: can talk, they can sort of swap notes, but really

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Speaker 5: she will be going back into sort of I guess

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Speaker 5: charted uncharted territory because he has been there before. But

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Speaker 5: with Trump, nothing's ever the same. It's you know, he

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Speaker 5: wakes up and decides things depending on how he's feeling

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Speaker 5: in the morning, So you know, I think there aim

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Speaker 5: just to keep talking in to sort of keep things

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Speaker 5: from escalating. I think the last in Beijing wants is

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Speaker 5: for things to get any more of difficult as it

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Speaker 5: faces all of these complaints on multiple fronts from so

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Speaker 5: many countries on its trade and its military sort of ambitions.

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Speaker 3: No doubt, in addition to the European Union Canada announcing

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Speaker 3: new tariffs on Chinese made evs. Jenny, it's always a pleasure.

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Speaker 3: Thanks so much for making time to chat with us.

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Speaker 3: Jenny Marsh Bloomberg, team leader for Greater China Eco GOV

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Speaker 3: joining us here on Daybreak Asia. We welcome our guest

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Speaker 3: Frida lam Zitlow, Managing director and senior portfolio manager at

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Speaker 3: Fiduciary Trust International. Frieda joins us from San Mateo, California.

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Speaker 3: Nice of you to stop by. Can we talk about

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Speaker 3: this AI trade because the market seems to be on

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Speaker 3: pins and needles. Not only were the numbers from Nvidia

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Speaker 3: are concerned, but I think to some extent salesforce as

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Speaker 3: well tomorrow after the bell.

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Speaker 1: Yes, of course, Hello, that nice to be here. I

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Speaker 1: think right now our eyes are on Nvidia, you know,

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Speaker 1: after the close tomorrow, and Video will release its earnings.

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Speaker 1: And I think right now it's not a question as

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Speaker 1: we all know about demand, it's really on the supply

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Speaker 1: side on Video. I think the market's gonna watch whether

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Speaker 1: or not there might be any supply chain issues, uh

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Speaker 1: and what's happening with they the black WLL chip delivery.

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Speaker 1: And I think the demand right now it's probably larger

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Speaker 1: than n Video can supply. And you know, you have

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Speaker 1: all the big tech names uh really investing a lot

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Speaker 1: of capital wanting to be uh first, not to be

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Speaker 1: left behind, and and really want to take advantage of

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Speaker 1: this AI revolution and and Video it's really the main

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Speaker 1: supply really the only supplier who could provide high and

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Speaker 1: chip to know all the players in the industry. That's

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Speaker 1: the stock have been up twenty percent since the August

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Speaker 1: fifth low, and we will have to see. I think

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Speaker 1: the market's going to be reading the tea leaves.

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Speaker 3: So if there's a little bit of a disappointment here,

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Speaker 3: I think that would spell potential problem for the overall

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Speaker 3: equity market, since so much of what we have seen

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Speaker 3: in terms of performance, particularly in the Nasdaq stocks, the

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Speaker 3: Nasdaq one hundred, I think in credit about thirty percent

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Speaker 3: of its move to in Nvidia alone. I mean, so

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Speaker 3: if there's a little bit of cloudiness on the horizon

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Speaker 3: when video offers its guidance tomorrow, that could spell difficulty

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Speaker 3: for the overall market.

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Speaker 1: Right absolutely, you know, thirty percent of NASTAK, six percent

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Speaker 1: of SMP, certainly a large component of the market.

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Speaker 3: Where are you when it comes to reading the tea

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Speaker 3: leaves where the FED is concerned? That was a pretty

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Speaker 3: amazing speech that share Jay Powell gave it the Jackson

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Speaker 3: Hole Symposium last Friday. He's laying out the carpet here

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Speaker 3: for the first rate cut. The question I think in

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Speaker 3: the market's mind is whether it will be twenty five

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Speaker 3: or fifty? What is an accommodation now? A shift in

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Speaker 3: stance on the part of the FED mean for the

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Speaker 3: overall market, should we be concerned if there's economic slowing

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Speaker 3: about the quality of earnings? Or will lower interest rates

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Speaker 3: help inject more liquidity in the market? And then it's

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Speaker 3: off to the races.

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Speaker 1: So I think the market it's really anticipating a rate

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Speaker 1: cut in the next set meeting, and I think Jerome

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Speaker 1: Power said as much. The time has come, and I

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Speaker 1: think that really was what the market is looking for.

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Speaker 1: So the question is how much and how fast? And

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Speaker 1: my view is the FT's going to be measured out

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Speaker 1: of the gate twenty five basis point. It's widely expected.

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Speaker 1: Some are speculating fifty. I think to thought that might

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Speaker 1: be a little aggressive, And I think at the end

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Speaker 1: of the day, Uh, the Fed's going to be data driven.

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Speaker 1: We have the job August job report coming after Labor Day.

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Speaker 1: That will be something that the that will be watching

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Speaker 1: very closely. And if that report come in with, you know,

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Speaker 1: a bigger disappointment than anticipated, then the chance of a

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Speaker 1: largery would be possible. So we'll have to see.

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Speaker 3: So one of the things I think the FED is

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Speaker 3: concerned about now is the weakness that we have seen

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Speaker 3: in the labor market, more so than the inflation story.

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Speaker 3: Should we be concerned about the US consumer? I noted

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Speaker 3: earlier the fact that consumer confidence so moved up in

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Speaker 3: the month of August. Are you concerned at all about

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Speaker 3: the health of the consumer.

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Speaker 1: So, I think the consumer has been very resilient. You know,

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Speaker 1: we saw the HUMER number coming out a five, a

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Speaker 1: six months high, and we also saw some of the

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Speaker 1: consumer stable company reporting very strong earnings. And while there's

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Speaker 1: definitely concern about labor slowing down, However, even if even

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Speaker 1: for the very disappointing July job report, we are still

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Speaker 1: at a very low unemployment rate. So I would say

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Speaker 1: the labor is weaker, but not weak, and that provided

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Speaker 1: support for consumer confidence and continued consumption.

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Speaker 3: So we're obviously in the election season. Things will really

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Speaker 3: heat up after the Labor Day holiday if they haven't already.

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Speaker 3: How do you see the election factoring into the behavior

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Speaker 3: of the market, both on the equity side and in

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Speaker 3: fixed income as well.

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Speaker 1: So Dog, I think it's a little too early to tell.

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Speaker 1: I think both candidates had shared some high points about

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Speaker 1: potential what their policy might look like. I think there's

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Speaker 1: a sense that, you know, we may see more tax

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Speaker 1: cuts and terrorists under Trump, which you know, could be inflationary,

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Speaker 1: it could also stimulate the economy. And Harris, you know,

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Speaker 1: there's a sense that tax rate will go up for

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Speaker 1: high earners that's at of corporations that might you know,

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Speaker 1: hamper equity prices. However, there's other offsetting policies, so right

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Speaker 1: now it's a little early to tell. And one important

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Speaker 1: thing to note is that we will also have to

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Speaker 1: see how both chamber will be controlled or split and

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Speaker 1: which will sort of influence what policies actually get pass.

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Speaker 3: Freda, Before I let you go, I want to get

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Speaker 3: your sense of what, if any opportunities you're seeing offshore

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Speaker 3: right now? Is there anything that you find attractive outside

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Speaker 3: the US?

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Speaker 1: You know, I think a lot of attention from Dockhasten

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Speaker 1: on Japan, and I think Japan it's swing, you know,

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Speaker 1: a lot of green shoot in terms of corporate reform

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Speaker 1: and economic growth. The government is trying to normalize currency

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Speaker 1: rate and in the process introduce some volatility, but you know,

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Speaker 1: longer term that could be I very continue to be

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Speaker 1: an interesting place to look.

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Speaker 3: Frida, we'll leave it there. Nice of you to join

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Speaker 3: us on daybreak. Asia Frieda lamb Zitlow, Managing director also

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Speaker 3: senior portfolio manager at Fiduciary Trust International, on the line

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Speaker 3: from San Mateo, California. The US Special Council investigating former

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Speaker 3: President Trump is pressing ahead with prosecuting mister Trump on

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Speaker 3: charges of trying to overturn the twenty twenty election. Let's

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Speaker 3: take a closer look now with our own Zoe Tillman Bloomberg,

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Speaker 3: senior legal reporter who joins us from Washington, d C.

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Speaker 3: Thanks for making time for Zoe. Can you walk me through?

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Speaker 3: This is essentially a revision that follows a Supreme Court

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Speaker 3: decision on immunity presidential immunity.

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Speaker 6: Right, that's right. So earlier in the summer, the Supreme

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Speaker 6: Court held that presidents, not just former President Donald Trump,

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Speaker 6: but all presidents are largely immune from being prosecuted for

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Speaker 6: official acts that they took in office, and the Justices

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Speaker 6: said that this meant that certain allegations in the indictment

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Speaker 6: against Trump could no longer stand related to his efforts

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Speaker 6: to use the Justice Department in his efforts four years

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Speaker 6: ago to try and overturn the results of the election. However,

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Speaker 6: the Justice is said the rest of the indictment was

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Speaker 6: basically up for debate as to whether some of it

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Speaker 6: could go forward or if all or some of it

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Speaker 6: had to fall. So Special Counsel Jack Smith and his

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Speaker 6: team went back, They went through the indictment. They went

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Speaker 6: to a federal grand jury in Washington. Grand jury that

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Speaker 6: hadn't heard any of this evidence and came back today

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Speaker 6: with a similar but different indictment. It's the same charges

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Speaker 6: conspiring to obstruct the election, but missing a few pages

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Speaker 6: related to the Justice Department's role in that, but largely

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Speaker 6: largely the same set of charges against him.

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Speaker 3: So this case is before US District Judge Tanya Chutkin. Obviously,

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Speaker 3: now there, I would imagine, are going to be a

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Speaker 3: few motions made before her court. Is it likely that

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Speaker 3: this could be revisited in any way by the Supreme Court.

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Speaker 6: It's possible. I think it's less likely than the first time.

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Speaker 6: You know, the conservative majority took a lot of time

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Speaker 6: to lay out and articulate a standard for immunity, and

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Speaker 6: going forward, the Court will be less inclined to take

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Speaker 6: this back up again. However, you know, Trump's lawyers are

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Speaker 6: going to comb through this new superseding indictment looking for

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Speaker 6: anything that they think still fails under the immunity tests

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Speaker 6: that the Supreme Court articulated, and they could go back

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Speaker 6: and say to Judge Chuckkin, we still think that he's immune.

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Speaker 6: We still think that there is official conduct here that

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Speaker 6: he's being charged for, and whoever loses could appeal that

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Speaker 6: all the way back up to the Supreme Court. You know,

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Speaker 6: whether they would take it unclear, but it's an option

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Speaker 6: ahead of even getting close to a trial.

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Speaker 3: So if you can compare and contrast the initial indictment

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Speaker 3: that targeted the president with what we have received today,

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Speaker 3: this new indictment.

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Speaker 6: Right, so the overarching theme is exactly the same. Prosecutors

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Speaker 6: say that the former president, along with some unindicted, unnamed

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Speaker 6: co conspirators, you know, work together to try and overturn

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Speaker 6: the election in a few different ways. And the ways

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Speaker 6: that are similar across these indictments are, you know, finding

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Speaker 6: pro Trump electors to sign false certification saying he won

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Speaker 6: in swing states, taking advantage, exploiting the chaos, and Manuary

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Speaker 6: sixth at the Capitol trying to enlist Vice President Mike

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Speaker 6: Pence to stop Congress from certifying the results. What's gone

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Speaker 6: now is a section about his dealings with Justice Department

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Speaker 6: officials and specifically a former high level official named Jeffrey Clark,

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00:25:16,040 --> 00:25:19,919
Speaker 6: who was boosting his unsupported, baseless claims of voter fraud

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Speaker 6: to try and get the Justice Department to put its

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00:25:22,680 --> 00:25:25,320
Speaker 6: thumb on the scales in these swing states. That's all gone.

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Speaker 6: The Supreme Court said that's a no go, and references

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00:25:28,720 --> 00:25:32,959
Speaker 6: to Donald Trump's communications with other executive branch officials who

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Speaker 6: were telling him at the time that there was no

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Speaker 6: evidence to support his fraud claims. That's all gone too,

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00:25:39,520 --> 00:25:41,600
Speaker 6: but the core themes are all still there.

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Speaker 1: You know.

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Speaker 6: Some interesting, more subtle adjustments to the indictment are are noticeable,

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00:25:48,080 --> 00:25:52,520
Speaker 6: where they focus on characterizing him less as a president

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00:25:52,560 --> 00:25:54,879
Speaker 6: at the time, even though he was and as a

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00:25:54,920 --> 00:25:58,959
Speaker 6: candidate for office as a citizen. They're trying to, you know,

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00:25:59,440 --> 00:26:02,040
Speaker 6: get around owned the Supreme Court saying that if it

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00:26:02,119 --> 00:26:04,920
Speaker 6: had any relation to his duties as president at the time,

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00:26:04,960 --> 00:26:07,520
Speaker 6: it's off limits. So they're trying to stress now in

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Speaker 6: this new indictment that we're talking about candidate Donald Trump

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Speaker 6: and citizen Donald Trump and not President Donald Trump.

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Speaker 3: It's kind of interesting. We're a little more than two

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00:26:16,760 --> 00:26:19,840
Speaker 3: months away from the presidential election and we're the former

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00:26:19,920 --> 00:26:22,760
Speaker 3: president to be re elected. I think it's fair to

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00:26:22,800 --> 00:26:26,560
Speaker 3: say that maybe this case just goes away if Kamala

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00:26:26,640 --> 00:26:31,359
Speaker 3: Harris is elected to the presidency. Is it likely that

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00:26:31,440 --> 00:26:34,240
Speaker 3: the Special Council will continue to press this case.

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Speaker 6: That is the expectation. There is no reason to think

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Speaker 6: that she would cut short the work at this point.

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Speaker 6: And you know, it's not clear if the Special Council

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00:26:46,480 --> 00:26:50,159
Speaker 6: will push Judge Chutkin to move more quickly ahead of

463
00:26:50,160 --> 00:26:53,160
Speaker 6: the election, or if they'll say it's fine to let

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00:26:53,200 --> 00:26:56,840
Speaker 6: these next steps unfold in the normal course. And honestly,

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00:26:56,880 --> 00:26:59,160
Speaker 6: you know, like the rest of us, Jack Smith may

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00:26:59,200 --> 00:27:01,480
Speaker 6: want to wait and see how this all shakes out.

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00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:03,879
Speaker 3: What are the next things that we should be looking

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00:27:03,920 --> 00:27:05,840
Speaker 3: out for. Maybe you can give me a sense of

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00:27:05,880 --> 00:27:08,720
Speaker 3: the timeline. I know we just talked about the context

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00:27:08,720 --> 00:27:12,479
Speaker 3: of the election here, but in the normal proceeding where

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00:27:12,840 --> 00:27:15,560
Speaker 3: the defense counsel would have a chance to respond to

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Speaker 3: the indictment and there'll be hearings before the judge, can

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00:27:18,280 --> 00:27:20,320
Speaker 3: you kind of sketch out a timeline for us.

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00:27:21,680 --> 00:27:25,000
Speaker 6: Sure, So we're expecting to hear from both sides later

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00:27:25,040 --> 00:27:27,719
Speaker 6: this week with proposals for the schedule that they want,

476
00:27:27,920 --> 00:27:30,480
Speaker 6: and the judge has asked them to come in next

477
00:27:30,520 --> 00:27:33,080
Speaker 6: week to talk this through and to set a schedule.

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00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:36,720
Speaker 6: We haven't gotten any indication yet that either side is

479
00:27:37,040 --> 00:27:41,760
Speaker 6: sort of raring to go. And even if there are

480
00:27:44,080 --> 00:27:46,679
Speaker 6: fewer emotions now, I mean, they've already litigated over a

481
00:27:46,800 --> 00:27:50,360
Speaker 6: previous or similar version of this indictment. So some issues,

482
00:27:50,440 --> 00:27:53,520
Speaker 6: Judge Chuck and may say, I've already answered on some

483
00:27:53,640 --> 00:27:56,560
Speaker 6: of these issues, but you know, if there are emotions

484
00:27:56,600 --> 00:27:59,680
Speaker 6: to dismiss for other reasons, if they want to raise

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00:27:59,720 --> 00:28:03,680
Speaker 6: the new issue again, we're looking at a timeline of months,

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00:28:03,720 --> 00:28:07,040
Speaker 6: not even weeks. I suspect there's a normal course of

487
00:28:07,240 --> 00:28:11,399
Speaker 6: business to file briefs, to respond to hold arguments, to

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00:28:11,440 --> 00:28:15,000
Speaker 6: wait for the judge's decision. It seems highly unlikely at

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Speaker 6: this point that anything would really get resolved, and certainly

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00:28:18,160 --> 00:28:22,640
Speaker 6: not at the appellate level before the election. The immediate

491
00:28:22,680 --> 00:28:24,840
Speaker 6: next steps are Donald Trump will need to be arraigned

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00:28:24,920 --> 00:28:27,439
Speaker 6: on this new indictment. The prosecutor said he doesn't need

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00:28:27,480 --> 00:28:29,639
Speaker 6: to show up, but that will have to happen, and

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00:28:29,640 --> 00:28:31,080
Speaker 6: that'll be what we're looking at next.

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Speaker 3: So great stuff. Thank you so much for making time

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00:28:34,000 --> 00:28:36,760
Speaker 3: to chat with A. Zoe Tillman Bloomberg, a senior legal

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00:28:36,800 --> 00:28:40,040
Speaker 3: reporter joining US from Washington, d C. As a US

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00:28:40,120 --> 00:28:45,160
Speaker 3: Special Counsul Jack Smith presses ahead with prosecuting former President Trump.

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Speaker 2: This is Bloomberg, This is the Bloomberg Daybreak Asia podcast

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00:28:49,880 --> 00:28:52,959
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502
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