1 00:00:01,880 --> 00:00:04,360 Speaker 1: What's up, guys? How are you? It's time for early bets, 2 00:00:04,360 --> 00:00:07,080 Speaker 1: survivor and plays to make right now in week seven 3 00:00:07,120 --> 00:00:10,160 Speaker 1: of the NFL, he is Andrew Erickson. I am at 4 00:00:09,480 --> 00:00:12,880 Speaker 1: pat is much of where patfast Morres is. Pat is 5 00:00:12,920 --> 00:00:16,960 Speaker 1: off somewhere today. So Ericsson's in how are you, my friend? 6 00:00:17,000 --> 00:00:19,760 Speaker 1: Are Patriots are in first place? It's a good day. 7 00:00:19,840 --> 00:00:23,120 Speaker 2: Yeah? No, I rewatching that Bills game. I'm thinking, Wait, 8 00:00:23,200 --> 00:00:25,799 Speaker 2: Bills are four and two. Patrick's four and two, Hatred's 9 00:00:25,800 --> 00:00:28,880 Speaker 2: beat the Bills. That means at the top of the 10 00:00:28,920 --> 00:00:31,360 Speaker 2: AC East, the Jets are at the bottom. All is 11 00:00:31,480 --> 00:00:33,400 Speaker 2: right in the world alt. 12 00:00:33,920 --> 00:00:36,440 Speaker 1: It's quite remarkable. Drake may is in the top ten 13 00:00:36,479 --> 00:00:40,199 Speaker 1: for MVP options from a betting perspective, which is crazy. 14 00:00:40,880 --> 00:00:43,159 Speaker 1: Let's see if it continues. The Patriots and the Titans 15 00:00:43,159 --> 00:00:45,280 Speaker 1: get rolling here this week. We'll talk about that game 16 00:00:45,360 --> 00:00:47,400 Speaker 1: here in a little bit. But overall, how did week 17 00:00:47,440 --> 00:00:49,200 Speaker 1: six go for you? From a betting perspective? 18 00:00:49,560 --> 00:00:52,880 Speaker 2: Went three and two on the best bets from the show, 19 00:00:52,960 --> 00:00:55,680 Speaker 2: So happy about that a positive A winning week. Didn't 20 00:00:55,720 --> 00:00:58,720 Speaker 2: do nearly as well on the props, but yeah, I'm 21 00:00:58,720 --> 00:01:01,240 Speaker 2: looking forward to getting back at a week's Yeah. 22 00:01:01,280 --> 00:01:03,160 Speaker 1: I had a good week six sopefully we can continue 23 00:01:03,160 --> 00:01:04,959 Speaker 1: with it. I went four to OHO on Sunday, so 24 00:01:05,319 --> 00:01:08,319 Speaker 1: we'll see how how this week winds up going. All right, 25 00:01:08,400 --> 00:01:11,240 Speaker 1: we do three picks and then a survivor, and then 26 00:01:11,280 --> 00:01:13,720 Speaker 1: we get into a play to make right away, let's 27 00:01:13,720 --> 00:01:16,039 Speaker 1: start with your first play here on a Tuesday. What 28 00:01:16,080 --> 00:01:18,200 Speaker 1: would you make from a bet perspective? Right now? For 29 00:01:18,240 --> 00:01:20,120 Speaker 1: Week seven, I want. 30 00:01:20,120 --> 00:01:24,080 Speaker 2: The Browns, everything Browns related against the Miami Dolphins. I 31 00:01:24,120 --> 00:01:28,440 Speaker 2: think that Miami the TUA press conference, things are starting 32 00:01:28,440 --> 00:01:31,319 Speaker 2: to unravel here, and I think that we'll talk about 33 00:01:31,360 --> 00:01:35,120 Speaker 2: Callahan how he got fired. But once one coach gets fired, 34 00:01:35,600 --> 00:01:37,360 Speaker 2: I feel like everyone else feels like, Okay, well, now 35 00:01:37,400 --> 00:01:39,600 Speaker 2: I don't have to be the first GM or monor 36 00:01:39,640 --> 00:01:42,880 Speaker 2: to fire my coach. So I feel like, now it's okay, 37 00:01:42,920 --> 00:01:45,119 Speaker 2: Mike McDaniel, are you next? Because you were the first 38 00:01:45,160 --> 00:01:46,880 Speaker 2: coach fire? But maybe you're the second coach fired. And 39 00:01:46,880 --> 00:01:48,760 Speaker 2: I just think that this is a terrible spot for 40 00:01:48,840 --> 00:01:52,600 Speaker 2: the Miami Dolphins. Again, Cleveland plays so much better at home, 41 00:01:52,680 --> 00:01:55,600 Speaker 2: especially on the defensive side of the football. I don't 42 00:01:55,640 --> 00:01:58,880 Speaker 2: know how his teammates feel about to right now. I 43 00:01:58,880 --> 00:02:01,400 Speaker 2: think this Offen is going to strugg immensely. That defense 44 00:02:01,480 --> 00:02:03,880 Speaker 2: is trash. We know the Browns can run the football 45 00:02:03,920 --> 00:02:07,360 Speaker 2: all over with Quinshaw Judkins. I mean the Browns last week, 46 00:02:07,360 --> 00:02:09,160 Speaker 2: it was coming off a terrible spot. They were coming 47 00:02:09,160 --> 00:02:11,919 Speaker 2: off a game in London. It was their third road game. 48 00:02:12,160 --> 00:02:14,000 Speaker 2: Rookie quarterback making his first start on the road. This 49 00:02:14,040 --> 00:02:17,800 Speaker 2: is his first start in home, not overseas, not against 50 00:02:17,800 --> 00:02:20,280 Speaker 2: the divisional rival coming off a bye week, but against 51 00:02:20,480 --> 00:02:23,320 Speaker 2: the Miami Dolphins. I mean, Dylan Gabriel is a favorite 52 00:02:23,320 --> 00:02:26,959 Speaker 2: at home, Like as a rookie quarterback, I think that's tough. 53 00:02:27,000 --> 00:02:28,800 Speaker 2: I don't think this line is honestly big enough. Like 54 00:02:28,960 --> 00:02:30,760 Speaker 2: I want all the Browns. I think that the Browns 55 00:02:30,760 --> 00:02:33,400 Speaker 2: are going to destroy Miami. I think this me McDaniel's 56 00:02:33,480 --> 00:02:34,960 Speaker 2: last game as the Dolphins head coach. 57 00:02:35,680 --> 00:02:38,360 Speaker 1: I like it. My only concern is the offense and 58 00:02:38,400 --> 00:02:41,200 Speaker 1: what we saw with Gabriel's decision making the last two weeks. 59 00:02:41,240 --> 00:02:44,560 Speaker 1: I'm a little bit gun shy on the turnover perspective 60 00:02:44,639 --> 00:02:46,679 Speaker 1: for him, but I'd like the two and a half. 61 00:02:46,800 --> 00:02:48,840 Speaker 1: I think, if you bet it now, because I think 62 00:02:48,840 --> 00:02:50,240 Speaker 1: you're right, I think this thing's going to go to 63 00:02:50,320 --> 00:02:53,359 Speaker 1: three or higher. So I think if you can get 64 00:02:53,360 --> 00:02:55,800 Speaker 1: in on under three with the Browns, I like it 65 00:02:55,840 --> 00:02:59,320 Speaker 1: a lot. I the firing of Mike McDaniel, it's going 66 00:02:59,360 --> 00:03:02,600 Speaker 1: to be interesting because the Dolphins are such a mess. 67 00:03:03,160 --> 00:03:06,720 Speaker 1: Tyreek Hill is not coming back, and you have so 68 00:03:06,840 --> 00:03:10,440 Speaker 1: much money invested into Like, is it really even I 69 00:03:10,440 --> 00:03:12,720 Speaker 1: think they should have fired Mike McDaniel a while ago, 70 00:03:12,960 --> 00:03:14,919 Speaker 1: and they just have sat on it. And I wonder 71 00:03:14,960 --> 00:03:17,720 Speaker 1: if they just gonna let the whole string play out 72 00:03:17,720 --> 00:03:20,400 Speaker 1: here and hope for a draft pick, you know, one, 73 00:03:20,440 --> 00:03:25,079 Speaker 1: two or three tank essentially, and go down and then 74 00:03:25,160 --> 00:03:27,480 Speaker 1: fire Mike McDaniel at the end. But it could happen 75 00:03:27,520 --> 00:03:29,160 Speaker 1: mid season. I just don't know if they're trying to 76 00:03:29,320 --> 00:03:31,320 Speaker 1: If you fire the coach midseason, are you trying to 77 00:03:31,360 --> 00:03:33,000 Speaker 1: save the season. Like That's why I don't get what 78 00:03:33,040 --> 00:03:35,320 Speaker 1: the Titans did. I think the Titans. People think I'm 79 00:03:35,320 --> 00:03:37,760 Speaker 1: crazy for this, but I think the Titans fired because 80 00:03:37,840 --> 00:03:40,920 Speaker 1: Rabel's coming in. They fired Brian Callahan because they didn't 81 00:03:40,920 --> 00:03:43,240 Speaker 1: want to have to fire Brian Callahan after the week. 82 00:03:43,280 --> 00:03:45,360 Speaker 1: For Vrabel to kind of go and you know, rub 83 00:03:45,440 --> 00:03:47,839 Speaker 1: your nose in it, saying two years ago you had 84 00:03:47,880 --> 00:03:50,080 Speaker 1: this guy and he rolls back in with the Patriots 85 00:03:50,080 --> 00:03:52,200 Speaker 1: and blows your doors off. So I think they fired 86 00:03:52,280 --> 00:03:54,320 Speaker 1: him ahead of time to avoid that and to kind 87 00:03:54,320 --> 00:03:56,200 Speaker 1: of keep the fan base, you know, at least a 88 00:03:56,240 --> 00:03:59,360 Speaker 1: little bit focused on this season. I don't know what 89 00:03:59,400 --> 00:04:01,800 Speaker 1: the dolphin is and was thinking about. They're not going anywhere, 90 00:04:01,880 --> 00:04:04,120 Speaker 1: so why fire him? Just let him sit there and 91 00:04:04,120 --> 00:04:05,800 Speaker 1: lose every football game and then fire him at the 92 00:04:05,880 --> 00:04:08,480 Speaker 1: end of the season. But I'm with you on the Browns. 93 00:04:08,480 --> 00:04:11,440 Speaker 1: I think it's a good play here with Cleveland at home. 94 00:04:11,800 --> 00:04:14,360 Speaker 1: Speaking of the Patriots, I'll lay the seven points. I 95 00:04:14,480 --> 00:04:17,240 Speaker 1: just I think this is a different Patriot team. I 96 00:04:17,320 --> 00:04:19,400 Speaker 1: know they're on a road trip. Third straight game for 97 00:04:19,480 --> 00:04:22,360 Speaker 1: them on the road at Buffalo, at New Orleans, and 98 00:04:22,400 --> 00:04:26,160 Speaker 1: now here against a Titans team. But the off the 99 00:04:26,200 --> 00:04:28,520 Speaker 1: field focus for the Patriots, I think it's going to 100 00:04:28,520 --> 00:04:31,520 Speaker 1: be really high. If this was any other team than 101 00:04:31,560 --> 00:04:34,400 Speaker 1: Mike Rabel's former team, I would say this is a trap, 102 00:04:34,600 --> 00:04:37,000 Speaker 1: like this is a danger spot. This is a game 103 00:04:37,040 --> 00:04:39,800 Speaker 1: I would never get involved with because the Patriots will 104 00:04:39,839 --> 00:04:42,560 Speaker 1: most likely lose this game or win by three, just 105 00:04:42,600 --> 00:04:45,200 Speaker 1: because we've seen it before. Young football team. Everyone's stinging 106 00:04:45,200 --> 00:04:49,320 Speaker 1: their praises, but Vrabel said it on Monday on Boston Radio. 107 00:04:49,440 --> 00:04:52,960 Speaker 1: He was like, look, we are focused here going into this, 108 00:04:53,000 --> 00:04:54,720 Speaker 1: and anytime you go back to a place you used 109 00:04:54,720 --> 00:04:57,920 Speaker 1: to work, you're bringing a little extra moxie. I think 110 00:04:58,000 --> 00:05:00,760 Speaker 1: Drake May and company Gino Smith threw a over this team. 111 00:05:00,880 --> 00:05:02,839 Speaker 1: The Patriots are gonna be able to run the ball 112 00:05:02,960 --> 00:05:05,840 Speaker 1: just like the Raiders did with ash jinenty and come on, 113 00:05:05,960 --> 00:05:08,480 Speaker 1: cam Moore just doesn't have weapons. Ridley now is hurt 114 00:05:08,720 --> 00:05:10,479 Speaker 1: for them, so now they don't have anybody to throw 115 00:05:10,520 --> 00:05:12,719 Speaker 1: to give me the Patriots minus seven. 116 00:05:13,640 --> 00:05:16,320 Speaker 2: Yeah, my only concern is just the dead cat bounce 117 00:05:16,400 --> 00:05:18,560 Speaker 2: right where we just see teams just like for no 118 00:05:18,680 --> 00:05:20,960 Speaker 2: reason whatsoever, because the teams are all bad that when 119 00:05:20,960 --> 00:05:24,160 Speaker 2: their coaches get fired. So from a schematic, you're looking 120 00:05:24,200 --> 00:05:26,600 Speaker 2: at the players on the field. Yeah, it makes all 121 00:05:26,640 --> 00:05:29,480 Speaker 2: the sense in the world. But it is seven points 122 00:05:29,600 --> 00:05:32,960 Speaker 2: and is on the road, so that's just a big 123 00:05:33,080 --> 00:05:36,000 Speaker 2: number to lay. Again, if Callahan was still the coach, 124 00:05:36,400 --> 00:05:39,160 Speaker 2: I would I would feel better about Mike Brabel actually 125 00:05:39,160 --> 00:05:41,760 Speaker 2: going down them and covering the larger spreads. So I 126 00:05:41,800 --> 00:05:43,800 Speaker 2: think I'm just gonna probably shy away from it just 127 00:05:43,839 --> 00:05:46,159 Speaker 2: because of the dead cat bounce. But I think everything 128 00:05:46,200 --> 00:05:47,839 Speaker 2: that you pointed out is accurate. 129 00:05:48,720 --> 00:05:52,279 Speaker 1: Look, the Tuesday move has been a long standing gambling 130 00:05:52,320 --> 00:05:55,039 Speaker 1: tradition to watch because the limits, the first limit move 131 00:05:55,120 --> 00:05:57,000 Speaker 1: goes to Tuesday. They open it up, not as big 132 00:05:57,040 --> 00:05:58,839 Speaker 1: as they get when they get to Friday, but you 133 00:05:58,920 --> 00:06:01,440 Speaker 1: have the opening number, and then Tuesday you get the 134 00:06:01,480 --> 00:06:04,520 Speaker 1: limits open up. After Monday Night football, the game was six, 135 00:06:04,720 --> 00:06:06,920 Speaker 1: it's now seven and a half. At certain books, you're 136 00:06:06,960 --> 00:06:08,880 Speaker 1: seeing where the pro money is coming in. They also 137 00:06:08,920 --> 00:06:10,720 Speaker 1: might be driving this thing as high as possible and 138 00:06:10,800 --> 00:06:12,800 Speaker 1: taking the Titans. Okay, this is one hundred percent of 139 00:06:12,839 --> 00:06:14,920 Speaker 1: head fake potential. But I think if you can get 140 00:06:14,960 --> 00:06:17,039 Speaker 1: six and a half or seven on the Patriots, now 141 00:06:17,360 --> 00:06:19,560 Speaker 1: get in early, I think you're going to be okay 142 00:06:19,960 --> 00:06:22,000 Speaker 1: at the end of the day. I just don't think 143 00:06:22,040 --> 00:06:24,279 Speaker 1: cam Ward's going to be able to do much here 144 00:06:24,360 --> 00:06:26,839 Speaker 1: against this Patriots defense in the pass rush. We saw 145 00:06:26,839 --> 00:06:29,039 Speaker 1: it last week against the Saints and what they did 146 00:06:29,080 --> 00:06:32,360 Speaker 1: to another young quarterback, not being able to understand where 147 00:06:32,360 --> 00:06:34,720 Speaker 1: the reds are coming from, and then the weapons just 148 00:06:34,760 --> 00:06:38,120 Speaker 1: aren't there. They just aren't there for the Titans here, 149 00:06:38,160 --> 00:06:40,520 Speaker 1: and who's going to be there if you're a Titan fan, 150 00:06:40,600 --> 00:06:42,760 Speaker 1: are you showing up to that game? Like? Are you 151 00:06:42,800 --> 00:06:44,960 Speaker 1: excited to sit in the stands and go and watch 152 00:06:45,760 --> 00:06:48,640 Speaker 1: an interim head coach and a first year quarterback up 153 00:06:48,640 --> 00:06:51,200 Speaker 1: against the guy that was on your sidelines two years ago, 154 00:06:51,360 --> 00:06:53,640 Speaker 1: the guy that was the number one seed at one 155 00:06:53,640 --> 00:06:56,880 Speaker 1: point in time in the AFC. With the Titans roll 156 00:06:56,960 --> 00:06:59,000 Speaker 1: back in with a first place football team and a 157 00:06:59,040 --> 00:07:02,840 Speaker 1: young quarterback, bad vibes, bad vibes in that building all 158 00:07:02,880 --> 00:07:05,520 Speaker 1: the way around for you play number two of this week, 159 00:07:05,560 --> 00:07:05,960 Speaker 1: what do you like? 160 00:07:06,400 --> 00:07:09,240 Speaker 2: I am going to the totals here with the Buccaneers 161 00:07:09,279 --> 00:07:12,760 Speaker 2: playing the Detroit Lions. I want the over in this game. 162 00:07:12,840 --> 00:07:14,400 Speaker 2: I don't care how high it is, fifty two and 163 00:07:14,480 --> 00:07:16,240 Speaker 2: a half, fifty three and a half. I just want 164 00:07:16,240 --> 00:07:18,120 Speaker 2: the over. We see this all the time with the 165 00:07:18,160 --> 00:07:20,160 Speaker 2: Lions games. It's one of the most profitable bets that 166 00:07:20,200 --> 00:07:21,840 Speaker 2: you can make is betting the over when the Lions 167 00:07:21,840 --> 00:07:24,680 Speaker 2: are playing at home. And I know that, as we'll 168 00:07:24,680 --> 00:07:26,280 Speaker 2: get into is I know you like the Buccaneers as 169 00:07:26,320 --> 00:07:28,520 Speaker 2: I do as well, just because you just bet on 170 00:07:28,560 --> 00:07:31,680 Speaker 2: Baker Mayfield when he's in a road underdog every single time. 171 00:07:32,040 --> 00:07:34,760 Speaker 2: But my hesitance with it is the trends on the 172 00:07:34,800 --> 00:07:36,320 Speaker 2: other side, where the Lions are one of the best 173 00:07:36,320 --> 00:07:39,560 Speaker 2: teams against the spread, especially after they lose, Like Dan 174 00:07:39,600 --> 00:07:41,560 Speaker 2: Campbell knows exactly what to do with his guys. So 175 00:07:41,680 --> 00:07:43,520 Speaker 2: I think that you just see both teams to kind 176 00:07:43,520 --> 00:07:47,400 Speaker 2: of perform above expectation. Lions offense cooks Baker Mayfield does 177 00:07:47,440 --> 00:07:49,360 Speaker 2: it with it doesn't seem like it matters who his 178 00:07:49,480 --> 00:07:51,880 Speaker 2: receivers are Tess Johnson, Sterling Shepherd. He's going to get 179 00:07:51,880 --> 00:07:54,960 Speaker 2: it done, Kada. And as bad as the receivers are 180 00:07:55,160 --> 00:07:57,880 Speaker 2: injury wise for the Buccaneers, it's equally as bad for 181 00:07:57,960 --> 00:08:00,400 Speaker 2: the Lions and their secondary, Like who do they have left? 182 00:08:00,400 --> 00:08:03,400 Speaker 2: Bryan Branch just got suspended, right, so they're running out 183 00:08:03,440 --> 00:08:05,920 Speaker 2: of bodies to cover. So even though it's kind of 184 00:08:05,920 --> 00:08:08,119 Speaker 2: like the JV team is out for the Buccaneers at receiver. 185 00:08:08,160 --> 00:08:10,000 Speaker 2: And there's a chance also that Mike Evans comes back, 186 00:08:10,000 --> 00:08:12,880 Speaker 2: so again getting some potential early line die because if 187 00:08:12,880 --> 00:08:15,960 Speaker 2: he plays, that's a massive swing in terms of will 188 00:08:15,960 --> 00:08:18,240 Speaker 2: this game go over the total? I think ultimately will 189 00:08:18,280 --> 00:08:19,760 Speaker 2: I don't think that I'm going to be sweating the 190 00:08:19,800 --> 00:08:21,400 Speaker 2: fifteen and a half, but I want to get on 191 00:08:21,440 --> 00:08:23,400 Speaker 2: it right now, because that's just the approach I look 192 00:08:23,400 --> 00:08:24,680 Speaker 2: at with these Lions games at home. 193 00:08:25,400 --> 00:08:27,280 Speaker 1: I love that play, but I also like the dog 194 00:08:27,360 --> 00:08:29,920 Speaker 1: as well. And I think, you wait, let the public 195 00:08:29,960 --> 00:08:32,240 Speaker 1: bet the Lions. Let this thing climb, and I think 196 00:08:32,240 --> 00:08:34,439 Speaker 1: you're gonna get six, You could even get six and 197 00:08:34,480 --> 00:08:35,920 Speaker 1: a half. You money even get seven by the time 198 00:08:35,960 --> 00:08:38,280 Speaker 1: we get to kick off here, because everyone's going to 199 00:08:38,320 --> 00:08:40,480 Speaker 1: be on the trends that you're talking about. In terms 200 00:08:40,520 --> 00:08:43,480 Speaker 1: of the Lions off of a loss at home, they 201 00:08:43,480 --> 00:08:46,000 Speaker 1: have been over the last three seasons. They've been the 202 00:08:46,000 --> 00:08:48,679 Speaker 1: most profitable team to bet on against the number in 203 00:08:48,720 --> 00:08:51,080 Speaker 1: the NFL, and again, like you said, against the spread 204 00:08:51,160 --> 00:08:55,640 Speaker 1: after they lose equally so. But this is Baker and 205 00:08:55,880 --> 00:08:58,640 Speaker 1: like you mentioned Branch being out, there's no one left 206 00:08:58,679 --> 00:09:01,800 Speaker 1: in that secondary for the Lions. Like again, I don't 207 00:09:01,840 --> 00:09:04,040 Speaker 1: care who's out there, there are, they're gonna be professional 208 00:09:04,120 --> 00:09:07,720 Speaker 1: wide receivers running around for Baker Mayfield. And Baker is 209 00:09:07,760 --> 00:09:11,240 Speaker 1: playing at an MVP level at the moment. I can't 210 00:09:11,280 --> 00:09:13,560 Speaker 1: bet against him. The first thing I do is I 211 00:09:13,559 --> 00:09:15,480 Speaker 1: look and see where are the Bucks. I have a 212 00:09:15,520 --> 00:09:17,600 Speaker 1: big bet on the Bucks to win the division. They're 213 00:09:17,600 --> 00:09:19,679 Speaker 1: off to a five and one start. I was at 214 00:09:19,720 --> 00:09:23,640 Speaker 1: a bar here in Vegas watching the game last week 215 00:09:23,679 --> 00:09:25,800 Speaker 1: for the Bucks and that run that Baker Mayfield had 216 00:09:25,840 --> 00:09:27,800 Speaker 1: on third and thirteen to pick up the first down. 217 00:09:28,120 --> 00:09:30,800 Speaker 1: The entire bar was on its feet, the entire place. 218 00:09:30,880 --> 00:09:33,080 Speaker 1: Whether you bet on him or not, everybody was like, 219 00:09:33,600 --> 00:09:36,400 Speaker 1: this guy is on a mission, like he is possessed. 220 00:09:36,559 --> 00:09:39,360 Speaker 1: Week prior to go to Seattle. They hang thirty eight 221 00:09:39,440 --> 00:09:41,959 Speaker 1: points on that Seattle defense. They come back home against 222 00:09:41,960 --> 00:09:44,800 Speaker 1: the forty nine Ers, they beat the Niners. Things are 223 00:09:44,880 --> 00:09:47,600 Speaker 1: right right now in Tampa. Give me the points six, 224 00:09:47,800 --> 00:09:49,840 Speaker 1: six and a half. I like the Bucks, but I 225 00:09:49,880 --> 00:09:52,199 Speaker 1: like you're over two in this game. So two different 226 00:09:52,280 --> 00:09:54,640 Speaker 1: levels you can approach. Bet number three for you, where 227 00:09:54,640 --> 00:09:55,000 Speaker 1: are you going? 228 00:09:55,400 --> 00:09:58,080 Speaker 2: I Am going to Denver. I'm going to lay the 229 00:09:58,080 --> 00:10:01,240 Speaker 2: points with the Denver Broncos against the New York Giants. 230 00:10:01,520 --> 00:10:03,360 Speaker 2: One of the trends I've been on this year is 231 00:10:03,360 --> 00:10:05,800 Speaker 2: betting against the rookie quarterbacks when they're playing on the road, 232 00:10:06,240 --> 00:10:08,280 Speaker 2: and that has been profitable. It's been three to zero 233 00:10:08,280 --> 00:10:11,400 Speaker 2: again if you count the neutral start for Dylan Gabriel 234 00:10:11,600 --> 00:10:13,560 Speaker 2: against betting against cam Ward again. This was the one 235 00:10:13,600 --> 00:10:16,319 Speaker 2: spot where actually didn't work out because the Denver Broncos 236 00:10:16,360 --> 00:10:18,199 Speaker 2: just vomited all of themselves in Week one and the 237 00:10:18,240 --> 00:10:21,040 Speaker 2: Times ended up covering that spread. But besides that, it's 238 00:10:21,040 --> 00:10:23,280 Speaker 2: been very profitable. And the same thing with even Jackson Dark. 239 00:10:23,400 --> 00:10:25,760 Speaker 2: I mean, the guy looks completely different when he's playing 240 00:10:25,760 --> 00:10:28,920 Speaker 2: at home against more of a depleted defense versus playing 241 00:10:28,960 --> 00:10:29,480 Speaker 2: on the road. 242 00:10:29,480 --> 00:10:29,760 Speaker 1: Again. 243 00:10:30,000 --> 00:10:32,480 Speaker 2: He lost outright to the Saints on the road as 244 00:10:32,480 --> 00:10:34,480 Speaker 2: an underdog, and now going to Denver, one of the 245 00:10:34,559 --> 00:10:36,839 Speaker 2: toughest places to play for a rookie quarterback. There is 246 00:10:36,880 --> 00:10:39,480 Speaker 2: no laie neighbors. He's not coming back. Denver showed last 247 00:10:39,480 --> 00:10:41,720 Speaker 2: week that they're not going to give up exposive plays, 248 00:10:41,840 --> 00:10:44,000 Speaker 2: so I don't think that Camp Scattabu is gonna nearly 249 00:10:44,040 --> 00:10:47,400 Speaker 2: have as much success rushing against the Denver Broncos. So 250 00:10:47,440 --> 00:10:49,559 Speaker 2: even though the Giants are coming off extra rest playing 251 00:10:49,559 --> 00:10:52,240 Speaker 2: on Thursday, Denver is coming off a game in London, 252 00:10:52,559 --> 00:10:54,440 Speaker 2: I still like laying the Broncos. I mean, Sean Payton 253 00:10:54,559 --> 00:10:56,719 Speaker 2: is gonna be riding his guys all week, especially on 254 00:10:56,760 --> 00:10:58,920 Speaker 2: the offensive side of the ball, where they were terrible 255 00:10:59,080 --> 00:11:01,160 Speaker 2: on off it. They couldn't do anythink Bonicks is making mistakes. 256 00:11:01,200 --> 00:11:03,800 Speaker 2: It couldn't run run the football effectively. What can you 257 00:11:03,800 --> 00:11:05,840 Speaker 2: do against the New York Giants is run the football, 258 00:11:05,880 --> 00:11:08,360 Speaker 2: and that puts the play action back into the offense 259 00:11:08,400 --> 00:11:10,559 Speaker 2: makes things a little bit easier for Bonis. So I 260 00:11:10,640 --> 00:11:13,040 Speaker 2: think Denver gets takes air business here at home. They 261 00:11:13,120 --> 00:11:15,400 Speaker 2: usually beat up on good teams. Think Sean Payt's could 262 00:11:15,440 --> 00:11:16,960 Speaker 2: write the ship here and take care of business. 263 00:11:18,559 --> 00:11:22,400 Speaker 1: One thing that I really like about the Broncos team 264 00:11:22,600 --> 00:11:25,800 Speaker 1: this week, in particular, is the love of Jackson Dart 265 00:11:25,840 --> 00:11:29,720 Speaker 1: in cam Skataboo that the public currently has. So when 266 00:11:29,720 --> 00:11:32,440 Speaker 1: you see teams that are getting a ton of hype, 267 00:11:32,640 --> 00:11:36,480 Speaker 1: who stink because the Giants stink, This is a great 268 00:11:36,520 --> 00:11:38,800 Speaker 1: time to fade them, because I think you might get 269 00:11:38,840 --> 00:11:41,040 Speaker 1: six and a half. This number opened up at eight, 270 00:11:41,440 --> 00:11:43,800 Speaker 1: it's down to seven. It might get to six and 271 00:11:43,880 --> 00:11:46,120 Speaker 1: a half. It might keep on dropping. Everyone's going to 272 00:11:46,160 --> 00:11:48,040 Speaker 1: be on the Giants. This is going to be Oh 273 00:11:48,080 --> 00:11:50,600 Speaker 1: it's cam Skataboo. Look what this guy is doing. Three 274 00:11:50,679 --> 00:11:53,160 Speaker 1: rushing touchdowns. Jackson Dart's going to be able to move 275 00:11:53,200 --> 00:11:55,880 Speaker 1: the football on the ground. No, he's not. I don't 276 00:11:55,880 --> 00:11:58,520 Speaker 1: believe Sean Payton's at home, going to allow this offense 277 00:11:58,600 --> 00:12:01,840 Speaker 1: to do anything. And without Molik neighbors, they don't have 278 00:12:01,880 --> 00:12:05,560 Speaker 1: many weapons. Okay. And last week again he's got two 279 00:12:05,600 --> 00:12:08,520 Speaker 1: wins at home and then a loss to the Saints 280 00:12:08,559 --> 00:12:11,520 Speaker 1: on the road. Okay, the Broncos were a much better 281 00:12:11,559 --> 00:12:13,960 Speaker 1: football team and a much more difficult place to play 282 00:12:14,440 --> 00:12:17,480 Speaker 1: at Mile High than it is to play in New Orleans. Yes, 283 00:12:17,600 --> 00:12:19,600 Speaker 1: I will bet this. I will be on your side. 284 00:12:19,640 --> 00:12:21,880 Speaker 1: I'm just waiting. I want six and a half if 285 00:12:21,880 --> 00:12:23,439 Speaker 1: I can get a better number. And if it goes 286 00:12:23,480 --> 00:12:25,840 Speaker 1: below seven, I want six and a half. And it's 287 00:12:25,920 --> 00:12:29,199 Speaker 1: coming down. It's seven here in Vegas. It might get 288 00:12:29,240 --> 00:12:30,560 Speaker 1: there because the public is in love. 289 00:12:30,640 --> 00:12:32,760 Speaker 2: Yeah, I'm seeing right, I see right now in the 290 00:12:32,800 --> 00:12:35,960 Speaker 2: betting pros Live odds that Novig has as miney six 291 00:12:36,000 --> 00:12:38,040 Speaker 2: and a half so far to see it kind of 292 00:12:38,080 --> 00:12:40,000 Speaker 2: go down. So to your point, this is one to 293 00:12:40,000 --> 00:12:43,800 Speaker 2: wait on because especially the public money. They love Jackson Dowry, 294 00:12:43,800 --> 00:12:44,839 Speaker 2: they love Campskatavo. 295 00:12:46,320 --> 00:12:47,760 Speaker 1: You can have it all you want, Okay, you can 296 00:12:47,800 --> 00:12:50,240 Speaker 1: have the craziness all you want. I love going against 297 00:12:50,240 --> 00:12:54,000 Speaker 1: the narrative that, oh my gosh, they found their next boy. Wonder. 298 00:12:54,160 --> 00:12:56,400 Speaker 1: Sure he's winning home games. Guys, he's got two wins, 299 00:12:56,400 --> 00:12:58,640 Speaker 1: both at home. Enjoy it. And you're on the road 300 00:12:58,640 --> 00:13:01,560 Speaker 1: against Denver. Yeah, it's gonna be a reality check time 301 00:13:01,960 --> 00:13:04,560 Speaker 1: for the New York Giants. From my final, I'm going 302 00:13:04,559 --> 00:13:08,840 Speaker 1: to Monday night and I got Seattle at home against 303 00:13:09,040 --> 00:13:12,280 Speaker 1: Look that there are I guess it's it's one night. Yeah, 304 00:13:12,280 --> 00:13:16,240 Speaker 1: this is a yeah against Houston. I don't like Houston's 305 00:13:16,280 --> 00:13:19,160 Speaker 1: offense at all, and it's three and a half down 306 00:13:19,200 --> 00:13:22,120 Speaker 1: to three at certain places, it's been a two and 307 00:13:22,200 --> 00:13:25,520 Speaker 1: a half point open here for the Sales Seahawks. I 308 00:13:25,640 --> 00:13:27,880 Speaker 1: like what I saw last week. I think this offense 309 00:13:27,920 --> 00:13:30,160 Speaker 1: is humming at the moment. I know the Texans defense 310 00:13:30,200 --> 00:13:34,480 Speaker 1: is really really good, but going in primetime, things are 311 00:13:34,559 --> 00:13:36,559 Speaker 1: unraveling in a lot of ways in the tech with 312 00:13:36,800 --> 00:13:39,400 Speaker 1: the Texans. I don't like Houston. They're coming off of 313 00:13:39,440 --> 00:13:41,080 Speaker 1: a bye. I'll give you that. I know that that's 314 00:13:41,200 --> 00:13:44,280 Speaker 1: one little scary factor here. But give me the Seahawks 315 00:13:44,360 --> 00:13:47,160 Speaker 1: minus three and Sam Darnold at home in primetime. I 316 00:13:47,160 --> 00:13:49,040 Speaker 1: think they get the job done. I want this number 317 00:13:49,080 --> 00:13:52,200 Speaker 1: before it client crosses three. Three and a half is possible. 318 00:13:52,240 --> 00:13:54,160 Speaker 1: Four could be possible. But time we get the kickoff, 319 00:13:54,360 --> 00:13:55,720 Speaker 1: give me the two and a half or the three. 320 00:13:56,000 --> 00:13:57,720 Speaker 1: On the Seattle Seahawks. 321 00:13:57,440 --> 00:13:58,960 Speaker 2: Agreed on the two and a half or three. I 322 00:13:58,960 --> 00:14:01,360 Speaker 2: think that if it's three and a half, that's probably 323 00:14:01,400 --> 00:14:03,679 Speaker 2: where I get a little bit more gun shy, just 324 00:14:03,679 --> 00:14:05,000 Speaker 2: because I don't think there's gonna be a lot of 325 00:14:05,000 --> 00:14:07,199 Speaker 2: scoring in this game. I think that both these teams 326 00:14:07,240 --> 00:14:10,280 Speaker 2: identify as hey, we're very very strong defensively, they're both 327 00:14:10,360 --> 00:14:12,240 Speaker 2: kind of top heavy when it comes to their receivers. 328 00:14:12,240 --> 00:14:14,000 Speaker 2: You have a Nico Collins is the number one, Jason 329 00:14:14,080 --> 00:14:15,480 Speaker 2: is the number one, and then after that it's kind 330 00:14:15,480 --> 00:14:19,120 Speaker 2: of just like depth pieces. You're expecting Houston to have 331 00:14:19,240 --> 00:14:21,960 Speaker 2: some type of answer offensively coming out of their bye week, 332 00:14:22,040 --> 00:14:24,440 Speaker 2: you know, in the lab doing something. I think they're 333 00:14:24,440 --> 00:14:26,600 Speaker 2: going to try to run the ball, because if they 334 00:14:26,600 --> 00:14:28,840 Speaker 2: were just dropping back to throw, they're gonna be screwed. 335 00:14:29,120 --> 00:14:32,280 Speaker 2: We saw last week's Seattle on the road against the Jaguars. 336 00:14:32,480 --> 00:14:35,440 Speaker 2: They pressure Trevor Lawrence on fifty percent of his dropbacks 337 00:14:35,680 --> 00:14:37,880 Speaker 2: fifty So I was like, so every other time he 338 00:14:37,920 --> 00:14:39,600 Speaker 2: went back to throw, Withers pressure in his face, and 339 00:14:39,640 --> 00:14:41,600 Speaker 2: we know the text offens. The line has been terrible, 340 00:14:41,720 --> 00:14:44,560 Speaker 2: specifically past blocking this year, so if they're trying to 341 00:14:44,640 --> 00:14:47,240 Speaker 2: run the football again, keep it a closer game. We 342 00:14:47,280 --> 00:14:48,920 Speaker 2: know the Texans like to play a lot of close games, 343 00:14:48,960 --> 00:14:53,160 Speaker 2: except when they're facing the Ravens backups essentially, so I 344 00:14:53,200 --> 00:14:55,560 Speaker 2: think that this game is tight. But I agree I 345 00:14:55,600 --> 00:14:58,480 Speaker 2: like the Seahawks with the home team and have anything. 346 00:14:58,600 --> 00:15:00,360 Speaker 2: I kind of like the under two. I just don't 347 00:15:00,400 --> 00:15:03,080 Speaker 2: think this is an explosive, high flying game, especially with 348 00:15:03,200 --> 00:15:05,760 Speaker 2: the ten o'clock window. I'm not watching this game live. 349 00:15:05,800 --> 00:15:08,080 Speaker 2: I'm gonna be rewatching this game the next morning, and 350 00:15:08,440 --> 00:15:12,080 Speaker 2: I don't think I'm going to be missing a scoring bonanza. 351 00:15:12,200 --> 00:15:14,000 Speaker 1: Do you think the NFL is setting us up to 352 00:15:14,080 --> 00:15:16,760 Speaker 1: kill Thursday with a number of Monday night games we're 353 00:15:16,760 --> 00:15:18,520 Speaker 1: having with two of them. Do you think that they're 354 00:15:18,560 --> 00:15:20,720 Speaker 1: kind of testing the waters to see if the games 355 00:15:20,720 --> 00:15:24,280 Speaker 1: on Monday night have higher ratings that they might say, okay, 356 00:15:24,800 --> 00:15:27,680 Speaker 1: Thursday night football. People have seen the football be crap 357 00:15:27,760 --> 00:15:29,440 Speaker 1: for so long that they might move it. 358 00:15:30,200 --> 00:15:33,040 Speaker 2: Yeah, that's an interesting thought. I know I was talking 359 00:15:33,040 --> 00:15:35,760 Speaker 2: to my wife about just how you know, there's London games, 360 00:15:35,840 --> 00:15:38,320 Speaker 2: there's Thursday games, there's two Monday games, and to me 361 00:15:38,440 --> 00:15:41,080 Speaker 2: sometimes it feels like it's kind of like diluting how 362 00:15:41,120 --> 00:15:42,720 Speaker 2: great they used to be, Like, oh, Monday football and 363 00:15:42,720 --> 00:15:45,080 Speaker 2: it's really special occasion, but well now there's three games 364 00:15:45,080 --> 00:15:47,800 Speaker 2: on Monday, so it's not really as special. But at 365 00:15:47,840 --> 00:15:49,720 Speaker 2: the same time, to your point, you know, it's all 366 00:15:49,720 --> 00:15:52,440 Speaker 2: about the ratings and if you put football on at 367 00:15:52,480 --> 00:15:54,960 Speaker 2: six o'clock in the morning, someone's gonna watch. It doesn't 368 00:15:54,960 --> 00:15:57,040 Speaker 2: matter just because how popular this sport is. So I 369 00:15:57,080 --> 00:15:59,120 Speaker 2: think that the Rings are always going to do well. 370 00:15:59,120 --> 00:16:01,680 Speaker 2: But when you're comparing them side by side, yeah, I 371 00:16:01,680 --> 00:16:03,840 Speaker 2: think that the NFL may find, well, these Monday games 372 00:16:03,840 --> 00:16:05,880 Speaker 2: are doing much better. People are staying up to watch 373 00:16:05,880 --> 00:16:08,760 Speaker 2: them at ten o'clock versus watching them at eight fifteen 374 00:16:08,760 --> 00:16:11,040 Speaker 2: on a Thursday night kickoff. So yeah, I think it's 375 00:16:11,040 --> 00:16:12,240 Speaker 2: a really interesting point to bring out. 376 00:16:13,040 --> 00:16:16,200 Speaker 1: I like the two Mondays way better than Thursdays because 377 00:16:16,200 --> 00:16:18,360 Speaker 1: the football is better. Personally, if you're going to go 378 00:16:18,400 --> 00:16:20,280 Speaker 1: to an EF you're gonna go do an eighteen game schedule. 379 00:16:20,320 --> 00:16:22,480 Speaker 1: I think if that's the ultimate goals to have eighteen 380 00:16:22,520 --> 00:16:24,840 Speaker 1: games here for the NFL, I think you have to 381 00:16:24,880 --> 00:16:27,880 Speaker 1: figure out, well, when does it break, like, when are 382 00:16:27,880 --> 00:16:30,160 Speaker 1: we asking too much of the human body to go 383 00:16:30,200 --> 00:16:31,840 Speaker 1: and play this many games? And I think one thing 384 00:16:31,880 --> 00:16:34,080 Speaker 1: that might be taking a look at it is saying, Okay, 385 00:16:34,080 --> 00:16:35,760 Speaker 1: we're going to play two Monday night games and not 386 00:16:35,880 --> 00:16:38,600 Speaker 1: have the Thursday. But the Amazon contract is quite large, 387 00:16:38,600 --> 00:16:40,480 Speaker 1: so you know, that's a lot of money for the NFL, 388 00:16:40,520 --> 00:16:42,360 Speaker 1: and that's what they like. They like a whole lot 389 00:16:42,360 --> 00:16:44,960 Speaker 1: of money. Before we get to the Survivor picks, guys, 390 00:16:45,000 --> 00:16:47,600 Speaker 1: track your bets and stay accountable. Level up by downloading 391 00:16:47,600 --> 00:16:50,400 Speaker 1: the Betting Pros app with sportsbooks Sink automatically track your 392 00:16:50,400 --> 00:16:53,320 Speaker 1: bets across all major sportsbooks in one spot. Easily monitor 393 00:16:53,360 --> 00:16:56,400 Speaker 1: your bet performance by sport and bet type, including game picks, props, 394 00:16:56,400 --> 00:16:59,880 Speaker 1: and parlays. Create custom betting systems to find winning trends 395 00:16:59,880 --> 00:17:02,840 Speaker 1: and profitable opportunities, and new users can get six months 396 00:17:02,840 --> 00:17:05,680 Speaker 1: of Betting Pros Premium for free with your first deposit 397 00:17:05,720 --> 00:17:08,560 Speaker 1: in wager at one of our partners sportsbooks. Learn more 398 00:17:08,640 --> 00:17:13,800 Speaker 1: by going to Bettingpros dot com, Slash Premium for Survivor 399 00:17:14,040 --> 00:17:16,280 Speaker 1: and all. Like Pat and I talk about every week, 400 00:17:16,840 --> 00:17:19,200 Speaker 1: everyone Survivor path is going to be different. So we're 401 00:17:19,200 --> 00:17:20,680 Speaker 1: going to give you a couple of different thoughts as 402 00:17:20,720 --> 00:17:22,520 Speaker 1: to who can win, depending if you have that team 403 00:17:22,560 --> 00:17:25,919 Speaker 1: available or not. But in Survivor, regardless off somebody, if 404 00:17:25,960 --> 00:17:28,320 Speaker 1: you have them are not available, where does your eye go? 405 00:17:28,880 --> 00:17:31,960 Speaker 1: Eric ericson for a Survivor pick this week? 406 00:17:32,440 --> 00:17:34,680 Speaker 2: So I talked about the Broncos against the spread. I 407 00:17:34,760 --> 00:17:37,200 Speaker 2: still like them here as well against the Giants at home. 408 00:17:37,200 --> 00:17:40,040 Speaker 2: I think that they're Survivor pick. Obviously. The chalkiest one 409 00:17:40,080 --> 00:17:41,120 Speaker 2: is probably the Chiefs. 410 00:17:40,960 --> 00:17:43,080 Speaker 1: Just playing at home. Like if you have probably it is. 411 00:17:44,320 --> 00:17:46,520 Speaker 2: That one's pretty easy. It doesn't really require much analysis. 412 00:17:46,560 --> 00:17:48,240 Speaker 2: They're going to win. I mean, maybe they don't cover 413 00:17:48,320 --> 00:17:51,439 Speaker 2: the now rising like eleven to twelve point spread, but 414 00:17:51,560 --> 00:17:53,879 Speaker 2: twelve and a half, yeah, they're they're probably gonna win. 415 00:17:53,920 --> 00:17:57,440 Speaker 2: They're playing at home against Ginosmith. So again, the Raiders 416 00:17:57,440 --> 00:17:59,480 Speaker 2: won't last week because they're playing the Titans like that, 417 00:17:59,800 --> 00:18:03,160 Speaker 2: that's really why. And so I guess my other one 418 00:18:03,160 --> 00:18:05,560 Speaker 2: that's maybe a little bit more off the board is 419 00:18:05,760 --> 00:18:08,600 Speaker 2: I actually like the Bears at home against the Saints. Again, 420 00:18:08,640 --> 00:18:12,760 Speaker 2: Bears are playing on a short week, but yep, I 421 00:18:12,920 --> 00:18:15,439 Speaker 2: Spencer Ratler's won one game in his NFL career, and 422 00:18:15,480 --> 00:18:18,080 Speaker 2: it was at home against the rookie quarterback. So even 423 00:18:18,080 --> 00:18:19,800 Speaker 2: though the Bears are playing a short week, I like 424 00:18:19,880 --> 00:18:23,119 Speaker 2: them playing at home at Soldier Field. Caleb Williams is 425 00:18:23,200 --> 00:18:24,840 Speaker 2: much better against the number and straight up when he 426 00:18:24,880 --> 00:18:28,639 Speaker 2: plays at home. Again, emotional win on Monday night. Maybe 427 00:18:28,640 --> 00:18:31,560 Speaker 2: that kind of is the one hesitance. But again, if 428 00:18:31,560 --> 00:18:34,240 Speaker 2: you're out of great options, I still like the Bears. 429 00:18:34,280 --> 00:18:36,280 Speaker 2: Skin you're betting against the New Orleans Saints who haven't 430 00:18:36,320 --> 00:18:38,160 Speaker 2: won a lot of games, Spencer Rattlers, So I think 431 00:18:38,240 --> 00:18:40,760 Speaker 2: that's probably where i'd go if I don't have options 432 00:18:40,800 --> 00:18:42,560 Speaker 2: like the Chiefs or the Denver Broncos. 433 00:18:43,000 --> 00:18:46,439 Speaker 1: Yeah, I think the easy too on the board, Denver 434 00:18:46,520 --> 00:18:48,439 Speaker 1: and Kansas City. As to how you're going to go, 435 00:18:48,520 --> 00:18:50,399 Speaker 1: I was on the Colts last week, sort of like 436 00:18:50,440 --> 00:18:52,320 Speaker 1: an off the beaten path pick, and I think the 437 00:18:52,320 --> 00:18:55,440 Speaker 1: Patriots equally are off the beaten path, you know. Conversation. 438 00:18:56,080 --> 00:18:58,679 Speaker 1: Do the Patriots go to Titans to Tennessee and lose? 439 00:18:59,040 --> 00:19:02,440 Speaker 1: I'd find it really to see Mike Vrabel's team against 440 00:19:02,440 --> 00:19:04,960 Speaker 1: an awful an awful Titans team we just fired their 441 00:19:04,960 --> 00:19:08,320 Speaker 1: head coach. Losing. Do they cover the seven? That's debatable. 442 00:19:08,440 --> 00:19:11,080 Speaker 1: I just can't see the Patriots losing the game outright 443 00:19:11,280 --> 00:19:13,240 Speaker 1: going to the Titans. Drake May would have to play 444 00:19:13,240 --> 00:19:16,320 Speaker 1: really poorly or get hurt, or something catastrophic would have 445 00:19:16,359 --> 00:19:19,159 Speaker 1: to happen in order for the Patriots to lose this game. 446 00:19:19,359 --> 00:19:23,360 Speaker 1: The Titans were handed a victory by the Cardinals. They 447 00:19:23,400 --> 00:19:26,320 Speaker 1: should have zero wins. They have one because of the 448 00:19:26,320 --> 00:19:29,600 Speaker 1: football gods and dropping ball to at the goal line 449 00:19:29,600 --> 00:19:32,119 Speaker 1: and everything else that happened in that football game the 450 00:19:32,119 --> 00:19:34,879 Speaker 1: flukiest of fluky things. So I think if you're looking 451 00:19:34,920 --> 00:19:37,480 Speaker 1: for that off the beaten path pick, I think the 452 00:19:37,520 --> 00:19:40,320 Speaker 1: Patriots over the Titans would be a popular way, But 453 00:19:40,320 --> 00:19:42,879 Speaker 1: that would only be if you didn't have Denver, didn't 454 00:19:42,880 --> 00:19:47,040 Speaker 1: have Kansas City available to be used. If you do, 455 00:19:47,359 --> 00:19:49,200 Speaker 1: I think your Denver pick. I think the pick of 456 00:19:49,240 --> 00:19:51,440 Speaker 1: the week should be the Denver Broncos against the Giants. 457 00:19:51,640 --> 00:19:54,679 Speaker 1: I love fading Road rookie quarterbacks on this, and I 458 00:19:54,680 --> 00:19:56,399 Speaker 1: think Sean Payton is a little bit upset with the 459 00:19:56,400 --> 00:19:59,520 Speaker 1: ways to bone Nicks needs to get going, like Bonnicks 460 00:19:59,560 --> 00:20:01,520 Speaker 1: needs to start picking it up a little bit for Denver. 461 00:20:01,920 --> 00:20:04,960 Speaker 2: Yeah, agreed, And again I'm thinking bit more about these 462 00:20:04,960 --> 00:20:07,080 Speaker 2: Patriots batter because I just think it's really fascinating with 463 00:20:07,160 --> 00:20:09,359 Speaker 2: very able going back down to Tennessee. And I think 464 00:20:09,400 --> 00:20:13,640 Speaker 2: that in itself kind of counteracts that the dead cat bounce. 465 00:20:13,359 --> 00:20:15,840 Speaker 1: Where I agree, in most situations, it's. 466 00:20:15,640 --> 00:20:18,480 Speaker 2: Not this type of setup where it is a head 467 00:20:18,520 --> 00:20:20,480 Speaker 2: coach that I don't care who the head coach is. 468 00:20:20,520 --> 00:20:22,159 Speaker 2: I don't care if it's Mike McCoy, I don't care 469 00:20:22,200 --> 00:20:24,080 Speaker 2: if it was Callahan, Like I want to kill this team, 470 00:20:24,280 --> 00:20:27,000 Speaker 2: like it doesn't matter. So I think I'm kind of 471 00:20:27,080 --> 00:20:29,399 Speaker 2: changing my tune a little bit there with the Patrio's 472 00:20:29,400 --> 00:20:32,480 Speaker 2: see where the number settles. But from a survivor standpoint, yeah, 473 00:20:32,600 --> 00:20:34,480 Speaker 2: I think that the Patriots, even if they don't cover, 474 00:20:34,840 --> 00:20:36,840 Speaker 2: I think that they are going to win this game. 475 00:20:37,040 --> 00:20:39,520 Speaker 2: And to your point, it would take some type of 476 00:20:39,520 --> 00:20:42,399 Speaker 2: wackiness where the Tennessee Titans are getting a bunch of 477 00:20:42,400 --> 00:20:45,240 Speaker 2: turnovers and things are kind of going off script where 478 00:20:45,280 --> 00:20:47,560 Speaker 2: the Patriots don't end up winning this game. But again, 479 00:20:47,600 --> 00:20:49,199 Speaker 2: that can happen in any football game. It's it's a 480 00:20:49,200 --> 00:20:51,520 Speaker 2: weirdly shaped ball, weird things can happen. But I think 481 00:20:51,520 --> 00:20:53,760 Speaker 2: the confidence play would definitely be on the Patriots. 482 00:20:54,320 --> 00:20:57,600 Speaker 1: Boute is playing at a really high level. We've seen 483 00:20:57,880 --> 00:21:01,560 Speaker 1: digs have monster games during this stretch. For the Patriots, 484 00:21:01,960 --> 00:21:04,720 Speaker 1: I think they get the running game going Drake May. 485 00:21:04,920 --> 00:21:07,760 Speaker 1: It's remarkable. I mean, you're a Patriot fan. Watching a 486 00:21:07,800 --> 00:21:11,400 Speaker 1: Patriot quarterback be a competent passer and runner of the football. 487 00:21:11,840 --> 00:21:13,639 Speaker 1: We've never seen it before. We've seen one of the 488 00:21:13,640 --> 00:21:16,400 Speaker 1: other We've seen certain quarterbacks coming who could run. We've 489 00:21:16,400 --> 00:21:19,480 Speaker 1: seen Brady for twenty years stand back there and not move. 490 00:21:19,920 --> 00:21:21,360 Speaker 1: Now we've got a guy who can throw the deep 491 00:21:21,359 --> 00:21:23,959 Speaker 1: ball and can run, and he's a weapon with the legs. 492 00:21:24,040 --> 00:21:25,800 Speaker 1: So I just think it's a lot to ask of 493 00:21:25,840 --> 00:21:28,560 Speaker 1: this Titans team after going up and I watched closely 494 00:21:28,600 --> 00:21:29,960 Speaker 1: in the Raider game and I was like, give me 495 00:21:30,000 --> 00:21:31,720 Speaker 1: a break. This team is awful, Like they are just 496 00:21:31,880 --> 00:21:34,399 Speaker 1: absolutely horrible. And the only way the Patriots lose this 497 00:21:34,400 --> 00:21:36,439 Speaker 1: game is that they beat themselves. And I find it 498 00:21:36,560 --> 00:21:40,879 Speaker 1: really hard that this team won't be looking. And I 499 00:21:40,880 --> 00:21:43,680 Speaker 1: don't think they can overlook the Titans given who their 500 00:21:43,720 --> 00:21:49,320 Speaker 1: coach is, Like Rabel hates the Titans like he hates 501 00:21:49,359 --> 00:21:52,040 Speaker 1: the Titans, so I think he's gonna be This is 502 00:21:52,040 --> 00:21:54,400 Speaker 1: gonna be a pretty electric week of practice for the Patriots, 503 00:21:54,400 --> 00:21:56,359 Speaker 1: and I wouldn't be surprised if Rabel puts on pads 504 00:21:56,440 --> 00:21:58,919 Speaker 1: himself and gets out there and starts smacking around some people, 505 00:21:59,200 --> 00:22:00,960 Speaker 1: given how far fired up he's going to be to 506 00:22:00,960 --> 00:22:04,240 Speaker 1: go back to Nashville to play to play the Titans. Guys, 507 00:22:04,280 --> 00:22:06,560 Speaker 1: today's show is being brought to you by hard Rock Bet. 508 00:22:06,680 --> 00:22:08,359 Speaker 1: We talked about of football this time of the year, 509 00:22:08,440 --> 00:22:10,399 Speaker 1: but on betting pros and everywhere else, the pennant is 510 00:22:10,440 --> 00:22:13,600 Speaker 1: on the line. In baseball, lights are brighter, the pressures higher, 511 00:22:13,640 --> 00:22:15,680 Speaker 1: and one swing can change everything. Sit up to the 512 00:22:15,680 --> 00:22:18,080 Speaker 1: plate and take your swing. On hard Rock Bet today, 513 00:22:18,200 --> 00:22:20,159 Speaker 1: new customers can place a five dollars bet and if 514 00:22:20,200 --> 00:22:22,080 Speaker 1: it hits, you not only get the winnings, but also 515 00:22:22,080 --> 00:22:25,119 Speaker 1: one hundred and fifty dollars in bonus bets. 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If you are somebody you 532 00:23:02,320 --> 00:23:04,280 Speaker 3: know has a gambling problem and wants help, call one 533 00:23:04,359 --> 00:23:06,600 Speaker 3: eight hundred and nine with it gambling problem called one 534 00:23:06,720 --> 00:23:10,640 Speaker 3: hundred gambler in Arizona, Colorado, Illinois, in New Jersey, Ohio, Tennessee, Virginia. 535 00:23:10,960 --> 00:23:13,200 Speaker 1: Let's talk about plays you would fire on right now? 536 00:23:13,680 --> 00:23:15,440 Speaker 1: Is there a bet you would want to take before 537 00:23:15,480 --> 00:23:17,320 Speaker 1: the line moves Browns. 538 00:23:17,720 --> 00:23:19,400 Speaker 2: That's definitely the one I want to say, just because 539 00:23:19,400 --> 00:23:22,280 Speaker 2: I think that the vibes of Miami aren't going to 540 00:23:22,359 --> 00:23:24,600 Speaker 2: improve throughout the weekend. I think bet people are going 541 00:23:24,640 --> 00:23:26,919 Speaker 2: to convince themselves that, yeah, this team is going in 542 00:23:26,960 --> 00:23:29,399 Speaker 2: the wrong direction. And I agree. This is just a 543 00:23:29,400 --> 00:23:31,200 Speaker 2: bad spot for them on the road. They don't play 544 00:23:31,400 --> 00:23:34,000 Speaker 2: well on the road. Usually it's December where they run 545 00:23:34,000 --> 00:23:36,160 Speaker 2: into issues. But I think early on this season, meaning 546 00:23:36,200 --> 00:23:38,199 Speaker 2: this team went up to Indianapolis in Week one and 547 00:23:38,280 --> 00:23:41,240 Speaker 2: just got curve stopped in Week one and in a dome. 548 00:23:41,480 --> 00:23:45,679 Speaker 2: Now you're going outdoors against Cleveland. That defense is going 549 00:23:45,760 --> 00:23:48,000 Speaker 2: to be pinning its ears to try to rattle to it. 550 00:23:48,000 --> 00:23:49,480 Speaker 2: And I know that you were concerned about the Dylan 551 00:23:49,520 --> 00:23:53,000 Speaker 2: Gabriel turnovers to it is going to turn them all 552 00:23:53,000 --> 00:23:55,439 Speaker 2: over a ton in this game. So I think this 553 00:23:55,520 --> 00:23:57,360 Speaker 2: is Miami's This is going to be a bad game 554 00:23:57,400 --> 00:23:58,040 Speaker 2: for the Dolphins. 555 00:23:59,080 --> 00:24:01,760 Speaker 1: For me, I want the over for Dallas in Washington. 556 00:24:01,840 --> 00:24:04,240 Speaker 1: It's fifty four and a half at the moment right now, 557 00:24:04,280 --> 00:24:06,040 Speaker 1: I think that number is going to climb. I really 558 00:24:06,040 --> 00:24:07,959 Speaker 1: don't know how high that number is going to go. 559 00:24:08,040 --> 00:24:10,080 Speaker 1: But if you're betting an under on a Cowboys game, 560 00:24:10,200 --> 00:24:12,320 Speaker 1: good luck. I don't know how you do that at 561 00:24:12,320 --> 00:24:15,679 Speaker 1: the moment. In particular at home, Jane Daniels and the 562 00:24:15,680 --> 00:24:17,480 Speaker 1: Commanders I think are going to be able to throw 563 00:24:17,520 --> 00:24:18,880 Speaker 1: the ball and they may get some of their wide 564 00:24:18,880 --> 00:24:21,159 Speaker 1: receivers back we'll see what the injury situation looks like 565 00:24:21,200 --> 00:24:23,720 Speaker 1: for the Commanders. But if they score less than twenty 566 00:24:23,720 --> 00:24:26,200 Speaker 1: four points against that defense, I'm going to be stunned. 567 00:24:26,520 --> 00:24:29,439 Speaker 1: Dallas can't stop anybody, and I think on the flip side, 568 00:24:29,480 --> 00:24:32,159 Speaker 1: the Cowboys offense just moves the football. George Pickens is 569 00:24:32,200 --> 00:24:35,000 Speaker 1: playing at an incredible level at the moment. They can 570 00:24:35,080 --> 00:24:37,439 Speaker 1: run the ball on Washington. We saw what the what 571 00:24:37,480 --> 00:24:40,680 Speaker 1: the Brent, what the Bears did last night to that defense. 572 00:24:41,200 --> 00:24:43,440 Speaker 1: Give me the over fifty four and a half. Bet 573 00:24:43,440 --> 00:24:45,000 Speaker 1: it before it moves, because I think that thing might 574 00:24:45,040 --> 00:24:45,960 Speaker 1: close at fifty six. 575 00:24:46,760 --> 00:24:49,080 Speaker 2: Yeah, it's only going to go up. I also kind 576 00:24:49,080 --> 00:24:51,320 Speaker 2: of like the Dallas team total as well. It's kind 577 00:24:51,320 --> 00:24:53,159 Speaker 2: of like a value a way to attack it because 578 00:24:53,200 --> 00:24:55,840 Speaker 2: they're underdogs, but they're also at home, so like you, 579 00:24:55,960 --> 00:24:57,400 Speaker 2: I feel like you're getting a kind of a value 580 00:24:57,440 --> 00:24:59,760 Speaker 2: a little bit on their specific number, but agree they're 581 00:25:00,040 --> 00:25:00,959 Speaker 2: there's gonna be points. 582 00:25:01,840 --> 00:25:05,320 Speaker 1: Huge opportunity for the Cowboys. They really, I mean they 583 00:25:05,359 --> 00:25:07,440 Speaker 1: need a win, like they need a win here and 584 00:25:07,840 --> 00:25:10,280 Speaker 1: instincts because like if you're a Cowboy fan, if they 585 00:25:10,320 --> 00:25:13,720 Speaker 1: had won that game against the Panthers, which most pros 586 00:25:13,840 --> 00:25:16,439 Speaker 1: were hammering the Panthers. But if they'd won that game, 587 00:25:17,000 --> 00:25:18,639 Speaker 1: they'd be three to two in one and they'd be 588 00:25:18,760 --> 00:25:21,320 Speaker 1: half a game behind the Eagles, who are four and two. 589 00:25:22,640 --> 00:25:25,320 Speaker 1: Do the Eagles lose this week, they can lose again. 590 00:25:26,119 --> 00:25:27,560 Speaker 2: See that's the thing with the Eagles. One of their 591 00:25:27,600 --> 00:25:30,119 Speaker 2: trends is they don't perform well after a losses like 592 00:25:30,320 --> 00:25:33,320 Speaker 2: they they like stack like bad game after bad games, 593 00:25:33,359 --> 00:25:35,640 Speaker 2: so complete opposite of the lines too, like always rebound. 594 00:25:36,000 --> 00:25:39,200 Speaker 2: The Eagles continue to expire and. 595 00:25:39,160 --> 00:25:42,920 Speaker 1: They're playing the Vikings, who literally have to win this game, 596 00:25:43,240 --> 00:25:47,160 Speaker 1: like the Vikings season not completely hinging, but like they 597 00:25:47,200 --> 00:25:49,240 Speaker 1: need this game, like this is a big game for 598 00:25:49,280 --> 00:25:51,720 Speaker 1: the Vikings to play, coming off of a bye for 599 00:25:51,840 --> 00:25:54,399 Speaker 1: last week, they have the Eagles coming to their place. 600 00:25:54,440 --> 00:25:56,919 Speaker 1: They're two and a half point dogs at home to 601 00:25:56,960 --> 00:26:00,600 Speaker 1: the Eagles. Oh my Goodwe if. 602 00:26:00,520 --> 00:26:04,120 Speaker 2: The Eagles are like Mitchell doesn't play and like Carter 603 00:26:04,240 --> 00:26:07,080 Speaker 2: miss it, like, I think the Vikings will win because 604 00:26:07,080 --> 00:26:09,000 Speaker 2: the question mark is we still don't know who's starting 605 00:26:09,000 --> 00:26:11,960 Speaker 2: a quarterback for the Vikings, like Wentz or McCarthy, And 606 00:26:12,000 --> 00:26:14,480 Speaker 2: again I don't think either options Like in a Super. 607 00:26:14,280 --> 00:26:17,000 Speaker 1: Powl, it's not going to be McCarthy though, like you, 608 00:26:17,359 --> 00:26:19,320 Speaker 1: this is the bye This isn't this why you help 609 00:26:19,359 --> 00:26:21,720 Speaker 1: you hold McCarthy out and he plays him in this game? 610 00:26:21,800 --> 00:26:24,240 Speaker 1: Do you not like this is when he comes back? Yeah? 611 00:26:24,280 --> 00:26:26,800 Speaker 2: So yeah, especially, I mean, I think it's gonna come 612 00:26:26,800 --> 00:26:29,920 Speaker 2: down to just Flores just making magic with his defense 613 00:26:29,960 --> 00:26:32,760 Speaker 2: against the Philadelphia Eagles offense. That's that's been struggling. You know, 614 00:26:32,880 --> 00:26:35,040 Speaker 2: Barkley hasn't played nearly as well as he did last year. 615 00:26:35,040 --> 00:26:37,400 Speaker 2: The offensive line has a bunch of issues. They're at 616 00:26:37,440 --> 00:26:40,080 Speaker 2: home off a bye week. Yeah, I mean, if you 617 00:26:40,200 --> 00:26:42,320 Speaker 2: just look at a lot of these circumstantial factors, you're like, 618 00:26:42,720 --> 00:26:44,400 Speaker 2: why am I not betting on the Vikings. 619 00:26:45,080 --> 00:26:47,240 Speaker 1: Look, it's two and a half again. The reason why 620 00:26:47,320 --> 00:26:48,879 Speaker 1: it didn't make my card yet is because of the 621 00:26:48,960 --> 00:26:51,359 Speaker 1: quarterback situation. I want to know who's playing quarterback. But 622 00:26:51,400 --> 00:26:54,400 Speaker 1: if it's JJ McCarthy, look the numbers coming down. It's 623 00:26:54,440 --> 00:26:55,840 Speaker 1: two and a half right now. But you have a 624 00:26:55,840 --> 00:26:58,240 Speaker 1: home dog in the NFL. That's been a very profitable 625 00:26:58,280 --> 00:27:00,159 Speaker 1: thing for years, but even more so this year. Or 626 00:27:00,240 --> 00:27:03,280 Speaker 1: home dogs in the NFL, and the Eagles internally are 627 00:27:03,320 --> 00:27:06,359 Speaker 1: a mess, Like they are a mess internally at the moment. 628 00:27:06,600 --> 00:27:08,639 Speaker 1: Maybe they go to Minnesota and write the ship, but 629 00:27:09,040 --> 00:27:11,480 Speaker 1: that dome is not an easy place to play off 630 00:27:11,520 --> 00:27:15,480 Speaker 1: of a buye for the Vikings. If it's McCarthy, I 631 00:27:15,600 --> 00:27:17,520 Speaker 1: like the Vikings to win that football game, coming up 632 00:27:17,560 --> 00:27:20,240 Speaker 1: here and getting a w and keep the misery in Philadelphia. 633 00:27:20,320 --> 00:27:23,760 Speaker 1: Rolling guys, you want to track all your your bets 634 00:27:23,800 --> 00:27:26,159 Speaker 1: in one place. You can do so with the Betting 635 00:27:26,160 --> 00:27:28,879 Speaker 1: Pros Pick Tracker. It syncs up with your sportsbooks to 636 00:27:28,920 --> 00:27:31,840 Speaker 1: tally which picks hits and which miss. Plus, it gives 637 00:27:31,840 --> 00:27:33,760 Speaker 1: you a live look at what the public is doing, 638 00:27:33,800 --> 00:27:35,840 Speaker 1: so you can use real time tracking to determine which 639 00:27:35,840 --> 00:27:38,239 Speaker 1: place to make and which place to fade. Track your 640 00:27:38,240 --> 00:27:42,399 Speaker 1: picks today with the Betting Pros Picktracker at Bettingpros dot com, 641 00:27:42,440 --> 00:27:45,760 Speaker 1: slash tracking, or on the Betting Pros app on the 642 00:27:45,800 --> 00:27:48,679 Speaker 1: way out, my friend, any final thoughts for Week seven? 643 00:27:49,760 --> 00:27:52,800 Speaker 2: No, no, no, no final thoughts again, beware that the 644 00:27:52,840 --> 00:27:55,639 Speaker 2: dead cat bounce. But I think that the vraibel I 645 00:27:55,840 --> 00:27:58,440 Speaker 2: want to destroy the Titans is going to be a 646 00:27:58,600 --> 00:28:00,760 Speaker 2: the thing that probably matters the most we reflect on 647 00:28:00,960 --> 00:28:02,240 Speaker 2: that final score of that game. 648 00:28:03,640 --> 00:28:05,760 Speaker 1: I'm really curious to see if the Panthers can beat 649 00:28:05,800 --> 00:28:10,440 Speaker 1: the Jets. See if that can happen. The Jets are 650 00:28:12,520 --> 00:28:14,760 Speaker 1: without I don't know. I don't know that offense can 651 00:28:14,760 --> 00:28:17,520 Speaker 1: get any worse, But I just want to see what's 652 00:28:17,560 --> 00:28:20,200 Speaker 1: going to happen in that game. Can the Panthers, who 653 00:28:20,400 --> 00:28:23,480 Speaker 1: are just a horrible team on the road, they suck 654 00:28:23,560 --> 00:28:26,680 Speaker 1: on the road, can they go to the to the meadowlands, 655 00:28:26,760 --> 00:28:29,439 Speaker 1: to MetLife and beat the Jets. Because if Aaron Glenn 656 00:28:29,480 --> 00:28:32,440 Speaker 1: loses at home to the Panthers, I know he's a 657 00:28:32,480 --> 00:28:35,959 Speaker 1: first year head coach, but that's zero and seven and 658 00:28:36,000 --> 00:28:38,080 Speaker 1: that's the bottom of the bottom. And I don't know 659 00:28:38,120 --> 00:28:40,200 Speaker 1: what you do if you're the Jets, because you've hired 660 00:28:40,200 --> 00:28:42,440 Speaker 1: the wrong guy. Like, if you can't beat the Panthers 661 00:28:42,480 --> 00:28:45,600 Speaker 1: at home, see you later. Like, I don't know, I 662 00:28:45,600 --> 00:28:47,920 Speaker 1: don't know how in the world you justify keeping Aaron 663 00:28:47,920 --> 00:28:49,840 Speaker 1: Glenn in that position if you can't beat the Panthers 664 00:28:49,840 --> 00:28:52,280 Speaker 1: at home, even with justin Fields. Because they tried to 665 00:28:52,320 --> 00:28:55,160 Speaker 1: play the craziest offensive game plan in the history of 666 00:28:55,200 --> 00:28:58,400 Speaker 1: the NFL last week. It almost worked, but it didn't. 667 00:28:58,520 --> 00:29:01,880 Speaker 1: They covered you don't play the that's great baron Glenn's 668 00:29:01,920 --> 00:29:05,800 Speaker 1: covering No way, ma'am. Guys, remember every week we're here 669 00:29:05,800 --> 00:29:08,840 Speaker 1: every Tuesday. Pat Fistmore's be back next week. He's Andrew Erkson. 670 00:29:08,840 --> 00:29:10,600 Speaker 1: I am Matt Parolt. To thank you for watching, We're 671 00:29:10,640 --> 00:29:12,920 Speaker 1: back next week for Week eight of the NFL Early 672 00:29:12,960 --> 00:29:14,600 Speaker 1: Betts to the Betting Pros. 673 00:29:16,800 --> 00:29:19,200 Speaker 4: Best freeway to support us is by leaving a positive 674 00:29:19,240 --> 00:29:22,760 Speaker 4: review on Apple Podcasts or Spotify. Follow us on x 675 00:29:22,800 --> 00:29:26,440 Speaker 4: and TikTok at Betting Pros and Instagram at Betting Pros NFL. 676 00:29:26,840 --> 00:29:28,240 Speaker 1: Also subscribe to our YouTube 677 00:29:28,280 --> 00:29:30,920 Speaker 4: Channel at YouTube dot com slash Betting Pros