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Speaker 1: Ye. Welcome to the Bloomberg Surveillance Podcast. I'm Tom Keane

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Speaker 1: Jay Ley. We bring you insight from the best in economics, finance, investment,

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Speaker 1: and international relations. Find Bloomberg Surveillance on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: Bloomberg dot Com, and of course, on the Bloomberg Did

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Speaker 1: you know the people that knew us in Italy? I

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Speaker 1: was thunderstruck. I've had a wonderful time. You know what

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Speaker 1: I did, which I did not expect. Robert Albertson jump

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Speaker 1: in here. We're doing the rick Ste's Tour Guide. The

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Speaker 1: coolest thing about Venice is going back to Venice. The

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Speaker 1: first time you go, you're all like, you know, hey, yeah, yeah, yeah,

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Speaker 1: it's amazing. And John, I mean you grew up with

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Speaker 1: all that. All of us have the luxury of going

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Speaker 1: once and then going back. Tom, how are the floods?

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Speaker 1: The floods were serious. I stay at the Metropole, which

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Speaker 1: is an acclaimed hotel, very fancy place, and they had

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Speaker 1: they the hallway, they had eighteen twenty of water. The

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Speaker 1: gradio didn't get to I couldn't afford the martini there

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Speaker 1: and the gredient like three ft of water and Mrs

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Speaker 1: Kane sent me a very cool video of you with

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Speaker 1: a cigar and a drink of your choice, and it

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Speaker 1: looks like you're having a lot of fun. Guys, we

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Speaker 1: will not be focusing on tom Kin's let's focus on

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Speaker 1: what do you do? Be focusing on the markets, and

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Speaker 1: we'll do that with Robert Albertson Sandler O'Neill, chief investment strategist.

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Speaker 1: Good morning to Robert, Good morning, how are you happy?

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Speaker 1: New year? Gain of twenty nine for nineteen. A happy

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Speaker 1: new year to anyone that was in the market. The

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Speaker 1: best year since What do you do if you missed

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Speaker 1: out on that monster year? You don't get fooled? No

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Speaker 1: unpredicted nineteen, and I think the biggest surprise was the

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Speaker 1: direction of interest rates, which really pumps up equity evaluations

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Speaker 1: way ahead of their earnings. My maam, I think twenties

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Speaker 1: more of a year of a reckoning. We've got three problems,

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Speaker 1: at least in the US we do. Number one, we

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Speaker 1: got a labor for so it's not growing fast enough

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Speaker 1: now to support anything like two thousand a month jobs.

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Speaker 1: Number Two, we don't have uh, any capex, any business

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Speaker 1: fixed investment. Maybe that'll change, but it's been decelerating for

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Speaker 1: four straight quarters, and that's really key to the long

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Speaker 1: term growth. Let's unpack some of that and begin with

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Speaker 1: the idea that hardly anyone predicted. Doug cast a good

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Speaker 1: friend of this program, becose friend of Tom quoted Mickey Mantle,

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Speaker 1: a baseball player that I know Tom is very fond

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Speaker 1: of from back in when was it Tom? The fifties

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Speaker 1: and sixties were Mickey bantl belt Buckle. There was a

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Speaker 1: quote from him. I never knew the game of baseball

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Speaker 1: was so easy until I entered the broadcasting and I

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Speaker 1: think that is so true for what we do on

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Speaker 1: programs like this. There are many people that imagine over

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Speaker 1: the next coming weeks will say things like the easy

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Speaker 1: money has been made, except I don't recall many people

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Speaker 1: in January eighteen talking about the easy money through nineteen

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Speaker 1: In the year to come, I think the challenge last

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Speaker 1: year was staying invested. You had excuse after excuse, reason

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Speaker 1: after reason thrown in your face to abandon this rally

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Speaker 1: in late spring of last year, in the depths of

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Speaker 1: summer of last year as well, And the biggest challenge

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Speaker 1: is Tom points in that time and time again through

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Speaker 1: last year was the courage to stay invested. How courageous

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Speaker 1: you need to be in I think you need to

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Speaker 1: be very careful. Um, I really don't buy that this

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Speaker 1: continues like it has. I think investors have to look

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Speaker 1: at the fundamentals and realize eventually they dragged down the market. Uh.

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Speaker 1: And there there's too many things going on the around direction.

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Speaker 1: And the biggest thing that impacted last year but didn't

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Speaker 1: have any impact, we're all the global issues yet bregnit.

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Speaker 1: You had China trade, had crazy stuff, all political angles,

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Speaker 1: and at the end of the day, didn't do too much.

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Speaker 1: But if you look closely at last year, all those

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Speaker 1: global issues, if I can call them that, when they

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Speaker 1: when they popped up and got hot, knocked the market down. Yes,

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Speaker 1: the market recovered, got higher and higher. The reason you

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Speaker 1: got higher and higher was basically the ambient level of

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Speaker 1: interest rates. Nobody but on what happened to rates? You were?

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Speaker 1: You thought, Robert that years ago we cram dot and

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Speaker 1: coddle and you and I were cool because we would

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Speaker 1: find a first edition which was on railroad stocks, etcetera, etcetera.

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Speaker 1: Does any of that matter anymore? And I say that

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Speaker 1: because I've got the performing companies with decent revenue growth

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Speaker 1: in corporations are adjusting down to steady or ample or

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Speaker 1: expected free cash flows. Why has that changed with the

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Speaker 1: passing of a new year. I mean, that's why we

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Speaker 1: lifted last year with that you know, accommodation and all that.

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Speaker 1: I mean, I mean there's still corporations are still going

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Speaker 1: to get it done this year, aren't they. They're going

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Speaker 1: to have growth, yes, but not anything like last year.

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Speaker 1: And remember again, the stock market reacted more to interest

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Speaker 1: rate than to any specific company. I think, would you

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Speaker 1: do this year as you pick very carefully, very carefully stocks,

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Speaker 1: you don't do index phones, uh, And you swear to

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Speaker 1: yourself that this is a decision you're gonna make and

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Speaker 1: stick with for two or three years, because look, if

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Speaker 1: Capex comes back, it could be something like twenty team,

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Speaker 1: but you're not going to know that until in the

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Speaker 1: first quarter. What Mr Robertson just said there, folks, is

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Speaker 1: the bible of this show, which is John. I believe

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Speaker 1: he said something like stick with it for two or

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Speaker 1: three years. Haven't forbid anybody who would have that timeline

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Speaker 1: in business time arising matters, wouldn't we love that kind

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Speaker 1: of time arising? I'm in the chest points. I called

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Speaker 1: my broker this morning. Half of are you calling the top?

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Speaker 1: Is that what they says. There might be some people

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Speaker 1: drive into work right now, driving off the road, very

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Speaker 1: worried that you're coming out of cash and going into equities.

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Speaker 1: We've all read looks, Robert, and I think I pulled

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Speaker 1: out some of the calls in the last twenty four hours,

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Speaker 1: just going through them all. And this was from Barclays,

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Speaker 1: and I'd love to know which part of this you

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Speaker 1: disagree with. They said the following We expect the tempered

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Speaker 1: recovery to uninspiring trend growth, but with diminished economic and

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Speaker 1: policy risks. In light of the very low returns on

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Speaker 1: offer in core bond markets, we think this sets the

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Speaker 1: stage for a grind higher in risk assets. Unpack that

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Speaker 1: for me, What do you disagree with within that? Because

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Speaker 1: that really is the consense this thing for a lot

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Speaker 1: of people going into the new year. I don't think

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Speaker 1: people are factoring in some of the goblins that came

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Speaker 1: out last year. They aren't going back into the cave.

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Speaker 1: Uh and take breggsit Um. We finally got somewhere. We

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Speaker 1: still haven't taken off the table that they crash out

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Speaker 1: um and it is unlikely that anything pleasant will hit

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Speaker 1: the news media on on their trade negotiations. Take China trade,

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Speaker 1: which has only done minimal in terms of accomplishment. There's

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Speaker 1: gonna be a lot of noise there. There's gonna be

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Speaker 1: unbearable noise in UH in the political situation. And let

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Speaker 1: me say one last thing please, and I think upsets

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Speaker 1: this market eventually, which is nationalism, which I always blame

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Speaker 1: our president for starting with UH. It's one thing to

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Speaker 1: see riots in Hong Kong and be upset about it,

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Speaker 1: but you sort of understand the reasons. It's harder to

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Speaker 1: see that in Santiago um and and it's genuine. Across

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Speaker 1: the world, there's a lot of social rest um and

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Speaker 1: it all does come from I think nationalism. But in

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Speaker 1: any event, I don't think those received this year. I

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Speaker 1: think those risks go up. I one final question. We've

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Speaker 1: been remissing that to get to it as a kickoff

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Speaker 1: or you're were thrilled you could be with us today.

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Speaker 1: What do you hear from Sandler O'Neil clients. You people

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Speaker 1: own midsize banking in America. People they're not, you know,

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Speaker 1: building the skyscrapers on Park Avenue. They're out there grinding

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Speaker 1: it every day. What do you hear from your clients? Well,

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Speaker 1: as I was saying to you earlier, I I've got

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Speaker 1: the advantage of talking to are visiting a regional bank

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Speaker 1: in the United States literally every week. UM, I listen

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Speaker 1: to every earnings call to get any flavor for what's

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Speaker 1: going on. I am focused on what's happening on the ground,

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Speaker 1: not what their stocks are doing. And in reality, the

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Speaker 1: first half of the year everything came out Okay, you

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Speaker 1: didn't see any UM problem in terms of business confidence.

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Speaker 1: Third quarter was the watershed. All of a sudden, they're

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Speaker 1: all saying, we're contracting. Uh we we We were concerned

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Speaker 1: and now we're more than concerned. So you've really got

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Speaker 1: on the ground at the mom a very negative piece

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Speaker 1: of moment. I'm in terms of business investments, it is

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Speaker 1: not yet hit the consumer. UM. That's the window I've got. Okay, Robert,

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Speaker 1: we're gonna leave it there. Rebert Oilbertson, thank you wonderful

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Speaker 1: to kick off the year with us. UM. One day,

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Speaker 1: I'm walking down Madison Avenue and they're walking at me

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Speaker 1: as Mr Gone, and we had a nice chat on

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Speaker 1: Madison avenue about what's going on. This is pre all

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Speaker 1: this uproar. Yeah, I think maybe more than anyone we

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Speaker 1: know in our Bloomberg universe. Things have changed from Mr

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Speaker 1: Gone in the last ten years. Now party is going

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Speaker 1: to be a key part of the next bomb movie.

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Speaker 1: How on earth did you get from Japan to Lebanon. Well,

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Speaker 1: there's a lot of private agencies involved. There's some new investigation.

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Speaker 1: I think one of the latest news is Turkey is

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Speaker 1: doing something with presumed pilots of all this to bring

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Speaker 1: a Chris Bryant, let's bringing an opinion the columnists Christ

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Speaker 1: for any of our listeners that might have missed this.

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Speaker 1: Let's just set the stage with what the former head

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Speaker 1: of Redinissan was suspected of doing, alleged of doing, and

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Speaker 1: what he was locked up in his house effectively over

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Speaker 1: in Japan, and how on earth he got from there

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Speaker 1: to Lebanon before the new year. And yes, so Mr

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Speaker 1: Going arrested roughly a year ago. The charges against him

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Speaker 1: broadly are undeclared income and misappropriation of company funds charges

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Speaker 1: I should make clear he vehemently denies um. He was

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Speaker 1: out on bail, which in itself was extraordinary because it

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Speaker 1: doesn't happen very often in Japan, which has a famous,

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Speaker 1: he severe legal system, and um, you know, out of

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Speaker 1: the blue and literally my joy at the floor when

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Speaker 1: others he managed to escape and there's no way that

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Speaker 1: that should have been able to happen because he was

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Speaker 1: under the most intense surveillance and so how he went

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Speaker 1: about doing this nobody really knows yet. I mean lots

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Speaker 1: of theories, some of which unfortunately have been knocked on

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Speaker 1: ahead of the one about him being in a music

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Speaker 1: case apparently not true. Sadly that would have been great

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Speaker 1: for the movie. But anyway, next week he's going to

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Speaker 1: give a press conference where hopefully he will be able

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Speaker 1: to tell the story of how he managed to get out.

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Speaker 1: But to be a bit more serious about this, there

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Speaker 1: are still some very serious allegations against him and he

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Speaker 1: really now needs to take the opportunity to answer to

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Speaker 1: some of these questions. And the press conference just won't

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Speaker 1: cut it. There needs to be some kind of process,

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Speaker 1: and how you go about organizing that I don't know.

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Speaker 1: Because of course Japan is going to say the Elebanont, well,

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Speaker 1: we want m to going back, Lebanon will say to Japan,

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Speaker 1: note that's not going to happen. Do we expect the

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Speaker 1: Japanese prosecutors to to cooperate with the Lemonese authorities? I

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Speaker 1: don't know. So Mr Gohen is now in some kind

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Speaker 1: of limbo. Uh. He can stay put in Beirute, he

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Speaker 1: could go to France, though Frenchman's has said this morning

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Speaker 1: they also wouldn't deport Mr gon And so that would

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Speaker 1: be my preference because he could go answer the questions

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Speaker 1: and perhaps we might have some faith that he you know,

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Speaker 1: that'd be a proper examination of these issues. Chris, we

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Speaker 1: could talk for hours about how on earth he managed

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Speaker 1: to make this trip and the the mystery, the mystery

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Speaker 1: around all of this, which I just find absolutely fascinating.

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Speaker 1: But as you say, we've got to talk about the case,

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Speaker 1: and the fact of the matter is his former colleague,

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Speaker 1: Greg Kelly is still in Tokyo awaiting trial. What on

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Speaker 1: earth happens to Greg Kelly? Now Carlos gon has fled

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Speaker 1: the country. Well that's a very good point, and you know,

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Speaker 1: it's hard to imagine the case against him can now

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Speaker 1: go ahead, and and it is worth noting Mr Kelly's

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Speaker 1: plight here. So Mr Goen has fled, he obviously had

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Speaker 1: his resources and his his money to to achieve that.

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Speaker 1: Mr Kelly left in the lurch there. So that's one thing.

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Speaker 1: The other thing to note about it is anybody who

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Speaker 1: is arrested in future in Japan white collar criminal has

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Speaker 1: got absolutely no hope of getting bail anymore, have they

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Speaker 1: after what Mr Gohn has done. So you know, parts

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Speaker 1: of the media he's been fitted almost as a folk

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Speaker 1: here are I don't quite see it that way. Essentially,

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Speaker 1: you know, he's he's on what he needed to do

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Speaker 1: for himself now, but it doesn't mean this is over

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Speaker 1: for Mr go and he has questions to answer. But

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Speaker 1: Nissan and Reno will be uncomfortable too, because he's now

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Speaker 1: got a pulpit in which he can settle some scores

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Speaker 1: next week. Can he go anywhere? Well, yeah, I think

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Speaker 1: he can. I mean, the France has said this morning

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Speaker 1: that they would not an extradite because they don't extradite

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Speaker 1: French national not clearly he'd have to cross some airspace

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Speaker 1: to get there, but I can't imagine the plane being

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Speaker 1: grounded by any of the countries in between. But I mean,

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Speaker 1: I don't know. I'm not an expert on that, but

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Speaker 1: I think yes, is the answer. He probably can, but

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Speaker 1: it's going to be difficult for him to resume his

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Speaker 1: previous role as sort of jet setting Davos man with

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Speaker 1: these allegations hanging over him. Whether he'd be welcome in

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Speaker 1: France is another matter because, as wrote in my column today,

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Speaker 1: you know, for Mr mccron, the president there, who's often

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Speaker 1: accused of being a sort of president of the rich,

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Speaker 1: he doesn't really want Mr go In hanging around in France,

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Speaker 1: you know, reminding him of here's somebody who who essentially

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Speaker 1: skipped justice in Japan. Well, Chris's final question on that,

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Speaker 1: he would say, it's escaped injustice. And I just wonder

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Speaker 1: the big spotlight right now, however, the Japanese judicial system,

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Speaker 1: what it is to leave it? Well, look, you know

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Speaker 1: that I think has been a big revelation to a

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Speaker 1: lot of people. Conviction rate in Japan's pretty unbelievable, isn't it. Nevertheless,

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Speaker 1: you know France saying this morning, the end of the day,

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Speaker 1: the law is a law. And Mr Going worked in

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Speaker 1: Japan for twenty years. He knew very well about the

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Speaker 1: legal system that now I certainly wouldn't have want to

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Speaker 1: be in his Going shoes and I think a lot

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Speaker 1: of people are sympathetic. You know, you have the other

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Speaker 1: opportunity to get out, and he did. But I say

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Speaker 1: that that that system now under some spotlight. But Mr

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Speaker 1: gin is himself facing some questions to Chris Bryan, thank

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Speaker 1: you so much, expert, and Mr Gone some real authority

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Speaker 1: and the business path of Mr Gone, and of course

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Speaker 1: the events of law asked three and four days as well.

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Speaker 1: Henry ot Tres joins us right now with a partners

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Speaker 1: on what we're doing in Washington. This story is construction

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Speaker 1: begins this year Henrietta of a thirteen billion dollar redo

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Speaker 1: of JFK. They're building LaGuardia right now. Is this nation

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Speaker 1: actually gonna do infrastructure this year? Oh, that's a great question.

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Speaker 1: I would not expect an infrastructure project to be completed

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Speaker 1: this year, although our New Orleans Airport did finally open

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Speaker 1: up only like six to nine months later than scheduled,

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Speaker 1: so that was exciting. UM, But neither here nor there.

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Speaker 1: I would say that an infrastructure package is more likely. UM.

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Speaker 1: And what I've been assessing is really what the scale

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Speaker 1: of an instructure package is going to be, since clearly

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Speaker 1: deficits don't matter anymore. My expectation is that under a

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Speaker 1: President Biden we would see the biggest possible infrastructure spending package.

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Speaker 1: Under a President Warrant, we'd see something slightly less robust,

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Speaker 1: and under President Trump, UM, something probably in the three

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Speaker 1: to five billion dollar range. Uh, that's that's sort of

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Speaker 1: the focus we've had. But infrastructure spending was very likely. Well,

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Speaker 1: let's go to something more basic like roads. I mean,

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Speaker 1: I mean, I was making a joke this morning. I

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Speaker 1: had to come in John in a bent link because

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Speaker 1: this of course he was down and you know I

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Speaker 1: I came in and fifth avenues like cobblestones in Florence

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Speaker 1: or you know, it's like, are we going to fix

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Speaker 1: our road? Violins out everywhere? For you know, it's terrible,

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Speaker 1: you know, but is are we going to fix our

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Speaker 1: roads this year? Is Democrats and Republicans going to help

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Speaker 1: us do that? I think if you can get individual

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Speaker 1: states to take action, that's the possibility to that be

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Speaker 1: on a state by state basis, But at the federal level. UM,

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Speaker 1: since we reached that one point for a trillion dollar

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Speaker 1: spending package between the House, Senate and the White House

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Speaker 1: just before the holidays, I would not expect a massive

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Speaker 1: rollout of road bridge or tunnel funding in UM. I

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Speaker 1: would say it's more likely than, for instance, a high

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Speaker 1: speed rail program, but I would not expect a major

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Speaker 1: infrastructure push to be realistic unless it's coming from the

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Speaker 1: States specifically. And John I point out the JFK read

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Speaker 1: really appears to be state done. You know it's it's

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Speaker 1: got nothing. And basically the General Airport very cool South Carolina,

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Speaker 1: nice terminals to take a visit, nice place to go,

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Speaker 1: go and spring when the weather gets just a little

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Speaker 1: bit better, Tom, you'll enjoy that. Henrietta, let's talk about

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Speaker 1: trade and not talk about airports and infrastructure. Phase one,

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Speaker 1: a trade deal said to be signed on January fifteenth,

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Speaker 1: according to the President, will have a ceremony, I believe

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Speaker 1: in the White House, according to the President, Henrietta, what

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Speaker 1: is in a Phase one agreement? And have we actually

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Speaker 1: got a translation yet in Chinese and in English? So

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Speaker 1: far there is not. There is expected, so there's no translation,

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Speaker 1: there's no legal tax. We haven't seen a publicly available

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Speaker 1: you know, what is expected to be around an eighty

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Speaker 1: six page document that lays out exactly what China is

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Speaker 1: committing to in the process by which US companies can

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Speaker 1: go and file claims to express that they are still

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Speaker 1: seeing their ips stolen or their tech being forced transferred.

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Speaker 1: All those components that are pieces of the initial Phase

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Speaker 1: one deal. We will not ever or see the commitment

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Speaker 1: from China on commodities purchases. The United States is explaining

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Speaker 1: that that is something that could potentially distort commodity prices. Um.

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Speaker 1: And that's an area of great concern for US farmers

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Speaker 1: because they really want to see language around what Brazil

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Speaker 1: and Argentina are going to be uh continuing to do

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Speaker 1: with China. They're worried about seeding market share in the

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Speaker 1: long term those two nations. Um. But the understanding I

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Speaker 1: have is that on as early as Saturday, the fourth

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Speaker 1: vice from your Luka and us to your Lifeeiser could

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Speaker 1: really inca deal and agree to legal text, and then

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Speaker 1: President Trump will do whatever he's going to do on

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Speaker 1: January and the White Has anybody seeing the deal? To

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Speaker 1: John's question, is it unusual that there's a big mystery

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Speaker 1: about what's in eighties six pages? Um, No, I don't

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Speaker 1: think it's particularly unusual. I mean, there is a chance

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Speaker 1: that things could go sideways, of course, as there always

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Speaker 1: is China has backed out of UM committing to last

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Speaker 1: minute legal ramifications before, and that really is the crux

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Speaker 1: of this. One of the things that the United States

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Speaker 1: is concerned about is whether or not be trans relation

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Speaker 1: contains binding language. So should China commit to IP reforms

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Speaker 1: or shall China commit to IP reforms? You know, one

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Speaker 1: sounds binding, the other sounds more optional. And that's really

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Speaker 1: the final stage that they're in right now. They're the words.

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Speaker 1: They're into like one word usage exactly, and words are everything,

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Speaker 1: details are everything, as we've discussed for over a year now,

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Speaker 1: you know. UM. That's that's something that has broken this

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Speaker 1: up before. So there is a scenario where this could

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Speaker 1: fall apart UM. There is some reporting just in the

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Speaker 1: last few days that the president's tweeting specifically about January

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Speaker 1: fifte should be worrisome to folks because it suggests that

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Speaker 1: there was not a firm date that prior and he's

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Speaker 1: trying to forge China pand now by creating the optics

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Speaker 1: that a deal has to be reached on the fifteenth UM.

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Speaker 1: So that's a little bit disconcerting, But based off of

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Speaker 1: what I'm saying behind the scenes, the briefings that have

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Speaker 1: gone on both amongst Republican staff, Democratic staff House Senate,

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Speaker 1: and then also the trade associations and individual old businesses.

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Speaker 1: The White House went fast and furious, on a full

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Speaker 1: scale rollout with their legal team explaining to every vested

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Speaker 1: interest exactly within the deal. So I do think that

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Speaker 1: there is a lot of concrete text. Um, it's not

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Speaker 1: you know, final final as yet, but I would not

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Speaker 1: expect for anything to implode at this point. And moreover,

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Speaker 1: I think the White House has lost its appetite for

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Speaker 1: further tariffs. So we're going to keep all the existing

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Speaker 1: three billion dollars worth of tariffs in place. None of

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Speaker 1: those will come off in but we don't want to

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Speaker 1: see more, and the White House has lost its appetite

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Speaker 1: for more. Since about late August, what have we heard

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Speaker 1: from the Chinese government. We've heard that they are coming here,

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Speaker 1: that they are willing to sign a document, They are

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Speaker 1: happy to not see tariffs escalate, they are happy to

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Speaker 1: make purchases um. On the troublesome side, we have heard

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Speaker 1: that they are not willing to shut off any trade

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Speaker 1: with foreign counterparts that allow them to have open access.

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Speaker 1: And there's obviously a lot of talk about whether the

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Speaker 1: United States trying to limit Brazil origin Tina's trade with

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Speaker 1: China would be a violating to the w t O,

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Speaker 1: and China has seized on that. I think, um so,

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Speaker 1: pushback where necessary and capitulation to stave off worse. Is

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Speaker 1: wawey or specific company technology involved in this Phase one?

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Speaker 1: It is not involved in this, and uspre Lifefiser goes

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Speaker 1: out of his way to explain that that is the

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Speaker 1: Department of Commerces per view, and the Bureau of Vetistry

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Speaker 1: and Securities perview. Um it does come up in every

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Speaker 1: single meeting, I'm advised, um So, I don't think that

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Speaker 1: it's something that anybody is not aware of, but it

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Speaker 1: is not the focal point and it is not addressed

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Speaker 1: in the Phase one deal at all to my knowledge.

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Speaker 1: Phase two, let's talk about that. The President also saying

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Speaker 1: he'll go to Beijing, Henriette say he'll go to Beijing

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Speaker 1: where talks will begin on a second phase of the deal.

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Speaker 1: What goes into phase two? And if the Chinese are

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Speaker 1: unwilling to sign up to any binding legal enforcement measures

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Speaker 1: in phase one, what hope do you have for phase

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Speaker 1: two where things could get a whole lot trickier. I

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Speaker 1: have no expectations for Phase two, nor do I have

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Speaker 1: any expectations for President Trump to go to Beijing. UM.

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Speaker 1: I think that that's something that we've seen from President

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Speaker 1: Trump before. UM there was speculation as far back as

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Speaker 1: September and then again in October and November the President

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Speaker 1: Trump would be traveling to Beijing. So I am not

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Speaker 1: optimistic that that's got any veracity behind it. And UM,

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Speaker 1: I would say that the most important thing about Phase

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Speaker 1: two is that it would include a discussion about state

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Speaker 1: subsidization in China, which is integral to their economy, and

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Speaker 1: something they've been pretty clear is off the table for

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Speaker 1: at least time being. So I am not expecting Phase two,

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Speaker 1: although of course there will have to be a discussion

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Speaker 1: in it around it, particularly as we get into the

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Speaker 1: U S. Presidential election. Henrietta, thank you so much. As

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Speaker 1: a terrific brief Henry at a Trade my needed update

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Speaker 1: on all of this with Data Partners. Pharrell wants to

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Speaker 1: go to our guest here on Russia and some other

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Speaker 1: themes of Europe where he is truly America's expert, but

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Speaker 1: I got to give him an end of the decade

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Speaker 1: victory lab. Whether you are a conservative, liberal, doesn't matter.

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Speaker 1: There was a book, The Price of Civilization, almost ten

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Speaker 1: years ago that changed the discussion. Did you know, Jeff

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Speaker 1: Sachs of Columbia University, did you know how lagging our

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Speaker 1: education system would become when you wrote The Price of Civilization? Yes,

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Speaker 1: I did, because you could see it was underlying trends

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Speaker 1: in this country. We're not investing a period. We're not investing,

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Speaker 1: whether it's an education or an infrastructure, which you were

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Speaker 1: just talking about. We are not looking ahead. And this

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Speaker 1: was the point that I made a decade ago, and

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Speaker 1: I'm afraid that it remains true because we're in day

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Speaker 1: to day politics, we're in twitter skirmishes. We're not thinking ahead,

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Speaker 1: and we still our trapping. Where is the desperation or

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Speaker 1: the urgency to jump start and reinvigorate our kindergarten, primary

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Speaker 1: and high school education system. To me, it's evaporated. It's

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Speaker 1: in the public everywhere because people are unhappy. We want change,

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Speaker 1: but the political system is broken. It's corrupted, it's dominated

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Speaker 1: by big money. We're blocked by all the corporate lobbies,

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Speaker 1: and so it's not really the polarization or the partisan politics.

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Speaker 1: It is what I called in that book to corporate ocracy.

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Speaker 1: That's really what has blocked America. Not Americans, by the way,

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Speaker 1: which are normal, decent people, but it is a broken

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Speaker 1: political system. I would suggest some corporations have tried to

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Speaker 1: donate here and there to jump start Professor with setting

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Speaker 1: in this studio. And we've got these TV screens around us,

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Speaker 1: and they're littered with the various cable networks in the

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Speaker 1: United States, and one network had up how much money

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Speaker 1: each candidate brought in in the fourth quarter. Bernie Sanders

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Speaker 1: a candidate that you told me just before this conversation

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Speaker 1: started that you're working with. So let's talk about it.

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Speaker 1: Some of the issues that you described just a couple

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Speaker 1: of minutes ago, what is he doing to address them,

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Speaker 1: and how will this play a part in the election

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Speaker 1: still to come this year. Well, Bernie is the candidate

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Speaker 1: that says we're basically in the grips of big money.

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Speaker 1: And Bernie's big haul in the fourth quarter, thirty four

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Speaker 1: million dollars, was all from small donors. That's the beauty

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Speaker 1: of it. What he's saying is I can win the

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Speaker 1: presidency without having to go to Wall Street, to big oil,

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Speaker 1: to big pharma and healthcare. What he's saying is it's

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Speaker 1: the lobbies that are killing us, and I'm going to

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Speaker 1: be able to make a movement that a compend on

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Speaker 1: those big lobbies. Two points. I've got to say that

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Speaker 1: Michael Bloomberg, of course, founder of Bloomberg LP, and I'm

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Speaker 1: the owner of this TV and radio enterprise as well

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Speaker 1: as is running for the nomination as well. That's great,

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Speaker 1: except I got two issues. One he is can he

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Speaker 1: get elected by the rest of America that doesn't agree

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Speaker 1: with Jeff Sex or the Center, the independent Senator Vermont.

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Speaker 1: And the other thing is just as importantly is how's

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Speaker 1: he going to get anything through a Republican Senate. You

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Speaker 1: know the interesting thing Tom about America's if you look

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Speaker 1: at the opinion surveys, which I do very carefully, Uh,

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Speaker 1: the vast majority of Americans want higher taxes on the corporations.

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Speaker 1: They want higher taxes on the rich. They want federally

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Speaker 1: funded healthcare system, they want improved education, They want renewable energy.

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Speaker 1: They do not want more fossil fuel energy. They know

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Speaker 1: overwhelmingly that humans are making at the climate change, and

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Speaker 1: on and on the problem in America is not Americans.

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Speaker 1: The problem in America is broken politics. Of big corporate

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Speaker 1: interests and this is really what I wrote about in

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Speaker 1: the Corporatocracy and what what we really continue to face.

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Speaker 1: This is a conversation that needs a couple of hours

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Speaker 1: at least, and not what we're starting at the new year.

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Speaker 1: So we surveillance you guys want. I'm happy to be

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Speaker 1: here to the lesson from the UK and the Labor

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Speaker 1: Party and the politics of the left. In the last month,

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Speaker 1: Jeremy Corbyn showed that he could win the base the

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Speaker 1: party membership. He didn't show that he could win the

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Speaker 1: general election on a national scale. Talk to me about

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Speaker 1: Bernie Standers and whether he falls into the same trap

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Speaker 1: I thought. Jeremy Corbyn ran the worst possible election campaign

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Speaker 1: and the worst past sable framework. The biggest issue facing

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Speaker 1: Britain was Brexit and he couldn't utter one coherent sentence

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Speaker 1: about Brexit. So at least his opponent had a view,

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Speaker 1: whereas you couldn't even tell what Corbin's view was. That's

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Speaker 1: a disaster when you have the major issue facing a

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Speaker 1: country in a generation and the leader of the party

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Speaker 1: can't say one coherent sentence. Well, we'll say for another conversation,

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Speaker 1: John and I can talk about Mr Corby still running

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Speaker 1: the Labor Party. I've got to get I got thirty

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Speaker 1: seconds before we have you in an hour. Jeff sax

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Speaker 1: Is Bernie Sanders going to hand the election to the

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Speaker 1: re election to Donald Trump. He absolutely will beat Donald Trump.

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Speaker 1: How's he going to do that in Minnesota, Wisconsin, in Ohio?

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Speaker 1: It's not Humort Humphrey because he's been with the workers

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Speaker 1: all his career. He's the most trusted candidate in America.

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Speaker 1: He's got absolutely the highest polling on is he honest?

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Speaker 1: This is what's going to carry the election? We gotta

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Speaker 1: leave it there, just actually gotta come back again. He

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Speaker 1: is with Columbia University. Thanks for listening to the Bloomberg

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Speaker 1: Surveillance podcast. Subscribe and listen to interviews on Apple Podcasts, SoundCloud,

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Speaker 1: or whichever podcast platform you prefer. I'm on Twitter at

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Speaker 1: Tom Keane before the podcast. You can always catch us worldwide.

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Speaker 1: I'm Bloomberg Radio