WEBVTT - Nick Denton's Big Bet Against the United States 0:00:02.480 --> 0:00:19.240 Bloomberg Audio Studios, Podcasts, Radio News. Hello and welcome to 0:00:19.320 --> 0:00:23.840 another episode of the Odd Lots podcast. I'm Joe Wisenthal. 0:00:23.400 --> 0:00:24.520 And I'm Tracy Alloway. 0:00:24.760 --> 0:00:26.720 Tracy, what do you think the rich people are doing 0:00:27.040 --> 0:00:30.040 these days? You know, Like, I know, there's a lot 0:00:30.120 --> 0:00:33.199 of like big business people lining up or who have 0:00:33.360 --> 0:00:37.040 lined up behind the Trump administration. But they have to 0:00:37.080 --> 0:00:41.040 be kind of anxious, right because things like mass tariffs 0:00:41.080 --> 0:00:44.120 and so forth, talk about reducing the role of the 0:00:44.240 --> 0:00:46.120 dollar and global tra it has got to make them 0:00:46.159 --> 0:00:46.760 kind of anxious. 0:00:46.800 --> 0:00:48.479 I actually know the answer to this. 0:00:48.600 --> 0:00:50.640 Oh yeah, as a person, no. 0:00:52.479 --> 0:00:55.520 Because the New York Fed publishes a survey of consumer 0:00:55.600 --> 0:00:58.600 sentiment where you can break it out by pay bracket, 0:00:59.160 --> 0:01:02.160 and so the high pay bracket, it's probably not the 0:01:02.240 --> 0:01:06.080 super super rich, but it is pretty rich. And yeah, 0:01:06.280 --> 0:01:08.959 they're getting worried for all the reasons you just laid out. 0:01:09.160 --> 0:01:11.559 But I do think if you exist in a pay 0:01:11.680 --> 0:01:13.319 bracket that already sort of. 0:01:13.240 --> 0:01:15.840 Suggests that you're not that right, not the real You're 0:01:15.880 --> 0:01:17.760 not the real. You know, you're getting a pair what 0:01:17.840 --> 0:01:20.880 high standards you have to But anyway, I think these 0:01:20.920 --> 0:01:22.400 are really interesting times. 0:01:22.640 --> 0:01:26.640 Needless to say, for the globe, for people who have money, 0:01:27.080 --> 0:01:31.400 for people who have feet around the world where they 0:01:31.440 --> 0:01:33.240 want to bet. You know, one of the things I 0:01:33.280 --> 0:01:36.039 wrote about it last week were recording this March twenty fifth. 0:01:36.200 --> 0:01:38.600 You know, one of the big trades that really had 0:01:38.600 --> 0:01:41.160 been characterized the last fifteen years is like bet on 0:01:41.200 --> 0:01:43.840 the US, literally against everything right by the S and 0:01:43.920 --> 0:01:46.959 P five just you know, you get no payment for 0:01:47.000 --> 0:01:49.600 global diversification. You didn't make any money in China, you 0:01:49.640 --> 0:01:51.960 lost money, you didn't get any pay for em you 0:01:51.960 --> 0:01:54.360 didn't really get anything in Europe at least for a 0:01:54.360 --> 0:01:57.040 couple of weeks. So far this year, that's reversed pretty sharply, 0:01:57.120 --> 0:01:59.520 and so one question is like, if you want glory, 0:01:59.600 --> 0:02:01.480 should you look outside the US borders? 0:02:02.200 --> 0:02:06.720 Right diversification finally potentially paying off, although again it's only 0:02:06.800 --> 0:02:10.400 been like three weeks, but we have seen a lot 0:02:10.400 --> 0:02:13.080 of people, in fact, we've recorded episodes about this talking 0:02:13.120 --> 0:02:16.760 about how this is a huge sea change in global politics, 0:02:16.800 --> 0:02:20.639 potentially in global markets as well. This big moment, similar 0:02:20.720 --> 0:02:23.440 to the fall of the Soviet Union, something that could 0:02:23.480 --> 0:02:29.000 forever alter Europe's economic and political and security paths. So 0:02:29.280 --> 0:02:30.680 we'll see. 0:02:30.520 --> 0:02:33.320 Big things are happening in Germany is like, we're gonna 0:02:33.320 --> 0:02:36.560 spend hundreds of billions of dollars on defense. They've really 0:02:36.919 --> 0:02:40.519 never done that. It's a change. So anyway, I'm really 0:02:40.520 --> 0:02:43.280 excited about our guest, someone I've known and talked to 0:02:43.560 --> 0:02:46.120 numerous times over the years, but we've never had on 0:02:46.160 --> 0:02:50.520 the podcast, luminary in the Worlds of journalism, previously a 0:02:50.520 --> 0:02:54.000 financial journalist, an interesting guy who suddenly popped up. He 0:02:54.040 --> 0:02:57.280 started posting again recently, and so that'll I was like, oh, 0:02:57.320 --> 0:02:59.680 maybe here's in New York City these days, we're going 0:02:59.720 --> 0:03:02.120 to be speaking with Nick Denton. He used to work 0:03:02.120 --> 0:03:04.040 at the Ft, used to work and he wrote a 0:03:04.040 --> 0:03:06.440 book and many most people would probably know him as 0:03:06.520 --> 0:03:09.640 the founder of the Gawker family of websites. He currently 0:03:09.760 --> 0:03:12.840 is a new thing called a Futua Kiato. He's gonna 0:03:12.840 --> 0:03:15.600 be some sort of journalism trading kind of hybrid. Maybe 0:03:15.639 --> 0:03:17.840 we'll find out what that is. Nick, Thank you so 0:03:17.919 --> 0:03:19.200 much for coming on Odd Lots. 0:03:19.280 --> 0:03:20.200 It's gonna be fun. 0:03:20.000 --> 0:03:23.320 I have a question. I've known you for a long time, 0:03:23.360 --> 0:03:25.560 but I've never asked you this. I actually don't know 0:03:25.639 --> 0:03:28.400 the answer to this. Well, how would you describe your 0:03:28.440 --> 0:03:31.520 political ideology. The reason I ask is that, you know. 0:03:31.600 --> 0:03:35.000 Like, starting with an easy. 0:03:33.840 --> 0:03:36.760 I'm just gonna like say, like the most awkward intro 0:03:36.920 --> 0:03:39.920 to a guest ever. Your former company, Gawker was put 0:03:39.920 --> 0:03:43.120 into bankruptcy in large part due to Peter Thiel. But 0:03:43.160 --> 0:03:44.920 then I've talked to us, like I kind of think 0:03:44.960 --> 0:03:48.000 he has like some like teallite sympathies at times, which 0:03:48.040 --> 0:03:49.760 is a weird thing to say, but i'd like, Oh, 0:03:49.800 --> 0:03:51.400 I'm sort of picking up on some of that. But 0:03:51.440 --> 0:03:53.200 I don't know if I'm wrong. Are you like quietly 0:03:53.240 --> 0:03:54.640 based how would. 0:03:54.400 --> 0:03:57.120 You I remember a conversation with you actually on Twitter, 0:03:57.200 --> 0:04:01.760 I mean a DM conversation and maybe twenty six twenty seventeen, 0:04:02.680 --> 0:04:06.400 at the end of which you said, oh, maybe preference 0:04:06.480 --> 0:04:09.440 falsification is happening on a very very wide scale. So 0:04:09.720 --> 0:04:13.160 I think you may have been surprised back then at 0:04:13.160 --> 0:04:15.560 the time. I would call myself a libertarian back in 0:04:15.600 --> 0:04:19.080 Gorka days, but I don't think that's really accurate, okay, 0:04:19.120 --> 0:04:19.720 because I. 0:04:19.680 --> 0:04:20.920 Think, what do you know, just a liberal? 0:04:21.960 --> 0:04:29.080 No, I'm probably an authoritarian, growth oriented follower of leak 0:04:29.160 --> 0:04:32.520 one you and to a lesser extent, But thanks you 0:04:32.560 --> 0:04:36.320 oping benevolent authoritarianism. 0:04:36.600 --> 0:04:38.240 Okay, full contact alright, Tracy. 0:04:38.320 --> 0:04:41.880 So Joe mentioned that you are a long time journalist, 0:04:41.920 --> 0:04:44.680 a veteran journalist, and I think you started your career 0:04:44.839 --> 0:04:48.800 in nineteen eighty nine covering the fall of the Soviet Union, 0:04:48.839 --> 0:04:50.880 And as I mentioned in the intro, a lot of 0:04:50.960 --> 0:04:54.040 people are kind of reaching for that analogy in describing 0:04:54.120 --> 0:04:58.040 this moment in Europe. Do you think that holds is? 0:04:58.279 --> 0:05:00.760 Are we seeing a shift on that kind of scale? 0:05:01.000 --> 0:05:04.080 Well, I guess Nia Ferguson's piece we are all Soviets 0:05:04.120 --> 0:05:07.800 Now was the one that got people thinking in these terms. 0:05:08.080 --> 0:05:11.440 And then you know, yes, I was in Eastern Europe 0:05:11.440 --> 0:05:14.880 in eighty nine and that was a very classic empire, 0:05:15.000 --> 0:05:22.120 Soviet Empire, and a very classic uprising against it, demonstrations, unions, protests. 0:05:21.800 --> 0:05:24.000 And eventually a complete collapse of legitimacy. 0:05:24.640 --> 0:05:29.800 This American empire is definitely more subtle and been around 0:05:29.839 --> 0:05:32.720 twice as long, a say, more subtle, more subtle, Yeah, 0:05:32.880 --> 0:05:34.200 keep going hidden empire. 0:05:34.320 --> 0:05:35.920 In fact, I think there's a book with that. 0:05:36.000 --> 0:05:39.320 Name eighty years rather than forty. You know, it's been 0:05:39.400 --> 0:05:44.039 a lot longer. It didn't end immediately with the fall 0:05:44.080 --> 0:05:46.400 of the arm Curtain, and I think it's been in 0:05:46.440 --> 0:05:49.039 all our heads as Europeans for a long time. You know, 0:05:49.080 --> 0:05:52.440 I come from My father was an Atlanticist. I was 0:05:52.440 --> 0:05:55.200 an Atlanticist. I saw the United States as being an 0:05:55.240 --> 0:05:58.760 extension of Europe, a place where Europe had gone to 0:05:58.800 --> 0:06:02.880 seek new adventures and new continents and new industries. And 0:06:03.400 --> 0:06:06.200 that dream is utterly gone. 0:06:06.880 --> 0:06:10.400 Because you still, you know, you have the World Economic 0:06:10.480 --> 0:06:13.120 Forums of the world. Does anyone believe it anymore? 0:06:14.440 --> 0:06:17.640 I mean, I guess the polls. 0:06:16.680 --> 0:06:20.599 The Poles still seem to believe it for well, the polls, 0:06:21.400 --> 0:06:25.120 and you know, in some English. But I think for 0:06:25.160 --> 0:06:31.080 me the two key incidents not the abuse of Zelensky 0:06:31.120 --> 0:06:37.039 in the Oval office, but the abuse of Denmark, a loyal, 0:06:37.680 --> 0:06:40.039 small but loyal American ally. 0:06:39.800 --> 0:06:43.240 The country that actually is arguably very much in alignment 0:06:43.240 --> 0:06:44.440 on immigration policies. 0:06:44.440 --> 0:06:47.000 Well, if you're going to talk about civilizational suicide, I 0:06:47.000 --> 0:06:49.839 don't exactly know how you fit Denmark into that. Where 0:06:49.839 --> 0:06:53.360 the social Democrats have actually stolen the entire agenda of 0:06:53.400 --> 0:06:56.000 the of the right wing in Denmark, and as a 0:06:56.000 --> 0:06:58.440 result there is really not much of a right wing 0:06:58.880 --> 0:07:02.160 resurgence anymore or in Denmark, so Denmark totally chose the 0:07:02.200 --> 0:07:05.000 way for a lot of social democratic parties in Europe. 0:07:05.400 --> 0:07:07.040 So there was that, and then there was the abuse 0:07:07.040 --> 0:07:10.760 of Radics Sakowski, you know, one of the prime atlantisists 0:07:10.800 --> 0:07:14.000 in Poland calling it, you know, Elon Musk, you know, 0:07:14.000 --> 0:07:16.880 with an assist from Marco Rubio telling him to be quiet, 0:07:16.960 --> 0:07:20.200 little man. Now that might just seem petty on my 0:07:20.200 --> 0:07:22.840 behalf to focus on that, but you're talking about, you know, 0:07:22.880 --> 0:07:26.080 somebody who was absolutely in the American camp. And so 0:07:26.600 --> 0:07:29.960 if they're abusing somebody like Radis Sikorski, they clearly don't 0:07:29.960 --> 0:07:31.600 care at all about the Western Alliance. 0:07:32.200 --> 0:07:35.680 And you're actually leaving the US now, right, Why have 0:07:35.760 --> 0:07:36.280 you been here? 0:07:37.040 --> 0:07:39.120 Yeah, to some extend, I've been gone since the end 0:07:39.120 --> 0:07:42.800 of twenty sixteen. We came back for family reasons, and 0:07:43.040 --> 0:07:45.680 now we're going for good selling the apartment. 0:07:46.840 --> 0:07:47.280 How come? 0:07:49.000 --> 0:07:51.520 I mean I was one hundred percent in US assets 0:07:52.000 --> 0:07:56.280 pretty much in January, both in terms of stocks, real 0:07:56.360 --> 0:08:01.600 estate and everything, and now it's pretty much for stocks 0:08:01.640 --> 0:08:05.440 are one hundred percent China and Southeast Asia well, and 0:08:05.760 --> 0:08:10.080 the real estates. We just got a nice, loved little 0:08:10.080 --> 0:08:12.080 house in the Buddha Hills. 0:08:12.600 --> 0:08:16.440 So you're you're diversifying in your portfolio, and in real life, I. 0:08:16.480 --> 0:08:21.200 Guess the diversified portfolio would be something like US fifteen, 0:08:22.640 --> 0:08:26.040 China fifty, rest of the world thirty five percent, something 0:08:26.160 --> 0:08:28.679 like that. So I'm obviously not not doing that because 0:08:28.680 --> 0:08:31.760 I think the adjustment is going to be an opportunity 0:08:31.800 --> 0:08:34.800 for people to make money. So I guess it's going 0:08:34.800 --> 0:08:39.640 to end up more or less where electricity production divides 0:08:39.720 --> 0:08:41.360 up in the world. You know, I come from an 0:08:41.360 --> 0:08:44.840 emerging markets reporting background too, where you couldn't really believe 0:08:44.840 --> 0:08:45.600 any of the statistics. 0:08:45.640 --> 0:08:47.040 You couldn't believe the GDP numbers. 0:08:47.200 --> 0:08:51.120 The only numbers you couldlready believe maybe output and tradable sectors, 0:08:51.200 --> 0:08:54.480 electricity output, that kind of thing. And so that's that 0:08:54.559 --> 0:08:56.760 tends to be how I've looked at the markets now. 0:08:57.040 --> 0:08:59.640 So you're going to be living full time. The Buddha 0:08:59.679 --> 0:09:03.439 Hill looks very very nice part of Budapest. Who should 0:09:03.480 --> 0:09:07.200 I believe about Orbon Should I believe Tucker that he's 0:09:07.240 --> 0:09:10.400 a great defender of civilization or should I believe the 0:09:10.400 --> 0:09:14.199 liberals that he's completely corrupted, not a friend at all? 0:09:14.840 --> 0:09:18.560 I mean something in between a new orban, a bit 0:09:18.880 --> 0:09:21.800 early on back in eighty nine when I was with 0:09:21.840 --> 0:09:26.640 the FT for whatever four years in Budapest, and he 0:09:26.720 --> 0:09:29.480 was always the most talented of his generation as a politician. 0:09:29.960 --> 0:09:32.920 Clearly knew how to play the game, and clearly knows 0:09:32.960 --> 0:09:36.600 how to play the game now, having channels open to China, 0:09:37.160 --> 0:09:40.480 Russia and the United States and playing a small country's 0:09:40.520 --> 0:09:44.640 hand really rather well. There's a giant BYD factory in Hungary, 0:09:44.720 --> 0:09:47.560 there's a giant Coatl factory in Hungary. If it actually 0:09:47.559 --> 0:09:50.080 comes down to it, I think most of Hunger's economic 0:09:50.080 --> 0:09:54.000 interests are actually China aligned, So I think that's where 0:09:54.040 --> 0:09:58.120 they'll end up forced. But there's no harm in maintaining channels. 0:09:57.800 --> 0:09:58.840 With the other powers. 0:09:59.559 --> 0:10:01.320 Just going back back to the intro, we were talking 0:10:01.320 --> 0:10:04.240 about whether or not let's call them the global elite, 0:10:04.559 --> 0:10:07.280 are feeling anxious at the moment. I think it's fair 0:10:07.320 --> 0:10:10.800 to say you probably move in some of those circles 0:10:11.160 --> 0:10:15.160 ultra wealthy. What are people saying right now, Like, what's 0:10:15.240 --> 0:10:16.960 the mood music that you're hearing? 0:10:18.120 --> 0:10:18.640 Well, we're going to. 0:10:18.679 --> 0:10:24.360 Talk about antisemitism or not definitely, Okay, it's free, free space. 0:10:24.960 --> 0:10:29.319 So when globalists get the blame for what was actually 0:10:29.360 --> 0:10:31.559 at that time. I think only a five percent or 0:10:31.600 --> 0:10:37.040 seven percent correction. When Trump blame globalists, I think it's 0:10:37.080 --> 0:10:39.280 a foretaste of what will happen if there is a 0:10:39.360 --> 0:10:45.560 significant repricing of assets in America the globalists quote unquote 0:10:45.559 --> 0:10:47.840 globalists or is is it like four brackets? 0:10:47.880 --> 0:10:48.920 I forget what the code is. 0:10:49.000 --> 0:10:51.160 Yeah, there the three parentheses. 0:10:51.559 --> 0:10:56.840 So the Cosmopolitans, the internationals to quote unquote European Wall 0:10:56.880 --> 0:11:00.800 Street Journal, like any anything that seems internettional. Anybody who's 0:11:00.800 --> 0:11:03.680 ever been to Davos or maybe just the Swiss Alps 0:11:03.679 --> 0:11:06.920 full stop is going to come under suspicion and they 0:11:06.960 --> 0:11:09.439 are going to be their life is going to be uncomfortable. 0:11:09.440 --> 0:11:12.240 In the States, I think it's going to be uncomfortable. 0:11:12.240 --> 0:11:15.080 They're going to be attacked from the left for being capitalist, 0:11:15.400 --> 0:11:18.040 and they'll be attacked from the right for being unpatriotic. 0:11:18.520 --> 0:11:20.760 And I think people are going to find, as they 0:11:20.760 --> 0:11:24.480 did during the kind of the looting phase of the 0:11:24.520 --> 0:11:27.880 twenty twenty protests, that there is no real sympathy for 0:11:27.920 --> 0:11:31.319 the Soho Loft Duweller in an environment like this when 0:11:31.320 --> 0:11:34.200 people are actually asking, so where did all the money go? 0:11:34.840 --> 0:11:36.839 Where did all the money of the last twenty five years, 0:11:36.880 --> 0:11:40.280 you know, during the during this period of American and exceptionalism, 0:11:40.320 --> 0:11:42.480 when America was really the only place to put your 0:11:42.480 --> 0:11:45.320 money if you wanted to invest your time or your 0:11:45.320 --> 0:11:46.200 money in the future. 0:11:46.559 --> 0:11:49.040 So where did it all go? What was left at 0:11:49.080 --> 0:11:49.480 the end of it? 0:11:49.679 --> 0:11:51.560 What's the high speed rail network? 0:11:51.640 --> 0:11:51.880 You know? 0:11:52.000 --> 0:11:55.000 Where are the new companies? And I think those questions 0:11:55.040 --> 0:11:56.560 are going to be very hard for people to answer. 0:11:57.000 --> 0:11:59.760 These are the thoughts that I have, like late at night, 0:12:00.040 --> 0:12:02.400 crawling up my phone, and then I wake up and 0:12:02.440 --> 0:12:04.360 I'm like, oh, like make my kids breakfast, and I 0:12:04.400 --> 0:12:06.080 go to the work and it's fine and it's fun. 0:12:06.120 --> 0:12:08.920 I love coming in here. And then like ten o'clock 0:12:08.960 --> 0:12:11.960 at night, that's is like my mind. Oh too, So 0:12:12.200 --> 0:12:13.840 like I was hoping, you know, want. 0:12:14.400 --> 0:12:16.439 Have you spent Have you spent much time just playing 0:12:16.440 --> 0:12:17.080 around with Ai? 0:12:17.559 --> 0:12:18.359 Yeah? 0:12:18.440 --> 0:12:21.720 He spends so much time playing around with AI, so 0:12:21.840 --> 0:12:22.880 much office time. 0:12:24.400 --> 0:12:27.920 What were you going to say, Well, un enormous circumstances, 0:12:27.920 --> 0:12:30.679 I'd said, like, this transition would take a good long time. 0:12:30.800 --> 0:12:36.640 You know, historically it takes decades, not years. But since 0:12:36.679 --> 0:12:39.120 January twentieth, and I don't mean the Trumpe inauguration, and 0:12:39.280 --> 0:12:40.880 I don't mean the Roman. 0:12:40.679 --> 0:12:42.360 Salute by l or must but I mean the deep 0:12:42.400 --> 0:12:42.920 seat drop. 0:12:43.360 --> 0:12:47.199 Since January twentieth, I think it's actually clear that AI 0:12:47.440 --> 0:12:50.920 is universal. It's going to be everywhere in every country, 0:12:51.040 --> 0:12:53.360 on every chip. And one of the first things that 0:12:53.400 --> 0:12:55.040 people are going to do with it is they're going 0:12:55.080 --> 0:12:57.400 to ask how to make money, and then they ask 0:12:57.440 --> 0:13:01.839 more sophisticated questions and have more sophisticated methods of working 0:13:01.840 --> 0:13:02.800 out how to make money. 0:13:02.880 --> 0:13:05.320 So you're doing something with this right, Like you have 0:13:05.360 --> 0:13:08.120 a new venture where you're using AI to trade or 0:13:08.200 --> 0:13:09.120 to research for trade. 0:13:09.200 --> 0:13:09.800 Yeah, I just started. 0:13:10.080 --> 0:13:13.840 I started actually doing a simple analysis of the electric 0:13:13.840 --> 0:13:18.840 car market, projecting forward byd in Tesla sales to twenty thirty, 0:13:19.120 --> 0:13:19.880 just to see. 0:13:19.679 --> 0:13:20.560 Where it would end up. 0:13:20.600 --> 0:13:23.240 And you know, to look at the you know who 0:13:23.360 --> 0:13:25.559 is in the lead at every single level of the 0:13:25.679 --> 0:13:28.040 value chain. And then you know, when you've got an 0:13:28.200 --> 0:13:30.240 army of researchers that you're back and call, and you 0:13:30.280 --> 0:13:33.120 know how to manage them well enough, you can get. 0:13:32.960 --> 0:13:34.720 Pretty robust answers pretty quickly. 0:13:34.920 --> 0:13:37.000 You know, our answers that then lead to you to 0:13:37.040 --> 0:13:39.200 make trades that maybe you wouldn't have had the confidence 0:13:39.200 --> 0:13:42.120 to make otherwise. And I think I'm not the only one. 0:13:42.720 --> 0:13:45.280 So I think it's recursive that we all know that 0:13:45.320 --> 0:13:48.360 we're all working more and more like this, and as 0:13:48.400 --> 0:13:53.080 we recognize this in other people, so the feedback loops accelerate, 0:13:53.480 --> 0:13:57.320 and so system changes that might have taken decades get 0:13:57.320 --> 0:13:59.160 compressed into months or years. 0:13:59.320 --> 0:14:00.000 That's my theory. 0:14:00.679 --> 0:14:02.959 I'm actually not still totally convinced, you know, Like I've 0:14:03.360 --> 0:14:06.840 I use AI tract kidding, I mean I do, and 0:14:06.920 --> 0:14:10.160 I've used like deep research and many of them. I 0:14:10.240 --> 0:14:13.079 still think it's just a tremendous amount of garbage. And 0:14:13.120 --> 0:14:15.440 I don't say this, but I also want to. It's 0:14:15.480 --> 0:14:17.320 funny when you are answer when you're talking about AI. 0:14:17.960 --> 0:14:20.520 I could only imagine if chatipt you'd come out like 0:14:20.920 --> 0:14:26.560 twenty thirteen, what you would have devised to torment Gawker writers, 0:14:26.600 --> 0:14:29.560 something about making them compete with AI and very you know, 0:14:29.600 --> 0:14:32.360 because all media organs have this like anxiety about well, 0:14:32.400 --> 0:14:34.240 this is actually pretty good at writing, except and then 0:14:34.280 --> 0:14:37.000 the journalists like you would have loved. You would have 0:14:37.080 --> 0:14:39.920 loved torturing your writers in some way by making. 0:14:39.760 --> 0:14:42.520 Them Competit prefers the torture the ais to compete with 0:14:42.560 --> 0:14:42.920 each other. 0:14:43.040 --> 0:14:45.240 But you would have you would have gotten a kick 0:14:45.240 --> 0:14:46.640 out of it, I feel like, and they would have 0:14:46.680 --> 0:14:47.680 really hated you for it. 0:14:48.680 --> 0:14:51.480 Okay. I think that some kinds of journalists. 0:14:51.520 --> 0:14:53.920 I wouldn't say you're abso the run of the mill journalists, 0:14:53.920 --> 0:14:56.760 but some kinds of journalists are extremely well equipped. I 0:14:56.800 --> 0:14:59.560 don't think they recognize the talents they have, and that 0:14:59.840 --> 0:15:03.920 are ability to ask good questions or to play games 0:15:04.040 --> 0:15:07.080 with somebody else who actually has information. But you want 0:15:07.080 --> 0:15:09.360 to get out of them that their skill and playing 0:15:09.360 --> 0:15:12.080 that game is actually is very is very powerful right now, 0:15:12.120 --> 0:15:15.840 that they could be traders if they wanted to be, especially. 0:15:15.440 --> 0:15:18.520 You, No, especially about me. I don't have to go. 0:15:34.640 --> 0:15:37.000 What's been your best trade so far this year? 0:15:37.080 --> 0:15:38.520 Yeah, good question, let's trader. 0:15:38.920 --> 0:15:42.160 I guess by d and Zaomi and that was based 0:15:42.200 --> 0:15:44.040 on your AI research. 0:15:45.240 --> 0:15:46.560 Yeah, I'd look. 0:15:46.560 --> 0:15:48.680 I've been into electric cars for a while. I'm a 0:15:48.760 --> 0:15:51.320 gadget head. I look at things from a consumer standpoint, 0:15:51.600 --> 0:15:54.200 not a producer standpoint. That's always what we sought to 0:15:54.240 --> 0:15:57.520 do with Gizmoto and Kataku and Jelopnik and the other 0:15:57.960 --> 0:15:59.840 consumer technology properties that we had. 0:16:00.240 --> 0:16:01.560 And you look at. 0:16:01.400 --> 0:16:04.160 These cars site by side, especially when you're talking about 0:16:04.160 --> 0:16:06.360 the SU seven, when you're not a BYD car and 0:16:06.480 --> 0:16:07.200 a Zomi car. 0:16:07.520 --> 0:16:09.760 BYD is a battery factory, battery. 0:16:09.360 --> 0:16:13.240 Company and Zamia phone company, and they both come into 0:16:13.280 --> 0:16:16.200 the car sector. Zomi's very first car out of the 0:16:16.240 --> 0:16:19.760 gate is really quite exceptional, with a very nice design, 0:16:20.280 --> 0:16:24.040 totally automated or as automated manufacturing process as you're likely 0:16:24.080 --> 0:16:26.400 to get, and anybody who's had their hands on it, 0:16:26.480 --> 0:16:29.000 including the CEO of Ford, does not want to let 0:16:29.040 --> 0:16:32.480 it go. It is clearly either half the price for 0:16:32.560 --> 0:16:35.000 the same quality or twice the quality for the same price. 0:16:35.280 --> 0:16:38.560 But we're not talking about twenty percent Japanese advantages as 0:16:38.600 --> 0:16:40.880 they had in the eighties, but we're talking about fifty 0:16:40.920 --> 0:16:44.800 to one hundred percent advantages in many areas. And the 0:16:44.880 --> 0:16:47.280 lead of the Chinese manufacturers is extending. 0:16:47.680 --> 0:16:49.600 So that seems pretty obvious to me. 0:16:50.280 --> 0:16:52.240 Why do you think now one of the interesting things, 0:16:52.320 --> 0:16:54.160 like I had to pulled up a chart of shell 0:16:54.240 --> 0:16:57.400 me and BYD is a listener. I wrote about it 0:16:57.440 --> 0:17:00.800 for a long time. For like the last ten years, 0:17:01.320 --> 0:17:04.120 Chinese stocks have kind of been dead bunny. So even 0:17:04.119 --> 0:17:08.600 though like the rise of Chinese manufacturing dominance has been 0:17:08.640 --> 0:17:11.840 a story that's existed for several years. I wrote about 0:17:11.880 --> 0:17:13.800 it this week in the newsletter two, it has not 0:17:13.920 --> 0:17:17.680 redounded to the benefit of Chinese shareholders. This is a phenomenon, 0:17:17.720 --> 0:17:19.520 and there's actually been this incredible amount of you know, 0:17:19.520 --> 0:17:22.040 they talk about like overcapacity, and I don't really like 0:17:22.080 --> 0:17:24.359 that term, but you know, the things that have not 0:17:24.560 --> 0:17:28.720 benefited shareholders. Do you think something's changing on that front 0:17:29.080 --> 0:17:32.600 such that the lead that these companies have now developed 0:17:32.840 --> 0:17:34.560 will be monetized in a real way. 0:17:35.280 --> 0:17:38.120 There are signs that China is opening up it's capital markets, 0:17:38.240 --> 0:17:40.600 small signs to begin with, but you know, they've got 0:17:40.640 --> 0:17:43.359 mainland funds investing in Hong Kong stocks. You've got the 0:17:43.400 --> 0:17:47.520 anointing of various Chinese companies by Xijiping at the meeting 0:17:47.560 --> 0:17:48.600 that they had whenever it was. 0:17:48.560 --> 0:17:49.920 Three weeks ago, four weeks ago. 0:17:50.480 --> 0:17:53.560 You have the I think recognition on social media that 0:17:53.640 --> 0:17:58.360 you have the strongest pr The China has area of 0:17:58.880 --> 0:18:03.439 nighttime videos of cyberpunk cities which cannot be argued with. 0:18:04.080 --> 0:18:07.959 And you know YouTubers going for a ride in the 0:18:08.040 --> 0:18:10.919 s U seven and being blown away by the acceleration. 0:18:11.160 --> 0:18:14.040 And I actually don't think it's a total accident. 0:18:14.040 --> 0:18:16.840 There's black YouTubers who seem to find it easiest to 0:18:16.880 --> 0:18:19.400 embrace the quality of Chinese products. But I think you're 0:18:19.400 --> 0:18:22.720 going to have you're going to have two different debates. 0:18:22.720 --> 0:18:25.480 You're going to have invested Tesla narrative, which seems to 0:18:25.520 --> 0:18:28.160 be almost exclusively political at this At this point, there's 0:18:28.280 --> 0:18:32.480 very little product content in the pitch at all. In fact, 0:18:32.560 --> 0:18:36.199 the only photographs you see of Tesla products usually involve 0:18:36.280 --> 0:18:38.680 them being on flame in flames, and I'm talking about 0:18:38.840 --> 0:18:43.520 Elon Must's own account. And meanwhile, the Sea of Jami is, 0:18:43.840 --> 0:18:46.359 you know, is posting up product porn. 0:18:47.840 --> 0:18:48.720 All around the clock. 0:18:48.960 --> 0:18:51.720 And just in terms of a product battle, in terms 0:18:51.720 --> 0:18:53.800 of features and in terms of marketing and in terms of 0:18:53.840 --> 0:18:55.640 price point, the Chinese have won. 0:18:56.160 --> 0:18:57.040 It's as simple as that. 0:18:57.119 --> 0:18:59.240 And if you don't recognize that, well, you're just not 0:18:59.240 --> 0:18:59.840 paying attention. 0:19:00.359 --> 0:19:03.560 How do you actually go about valuing political risk or 0:19:03.560 --> 0:19:06.840 trading on political risk? Because when I think about journalists 0:19:07.000 --> 0:19:11.920 potentially trading the competitive advantage isn't really number crunching, right, 0:19:12.080 --> 0:19:15.359 it's kind of looking into the company and feeling the 0:19:15.520 --> 0:19:18.240 vibe and figuring stuff out that no one else has 0:19:18.280 --> 0:19:18.800 seen yet. 0:19:20.160 --> 0:19:24.280 It's a multi dimensional approach. So I mean, I assume 0:19:24.320 --> 0:19:28.160 that the earnings forecasts are priced into the stock array, 0:19:28.680 --> 0:19:32.320 so there's no point reanalyzing that. You might as well 0:19:32.359 --> 0:19:34.000 just you might as well just take that as a given. 0:19:34.200 --> 0:19:35.960 The question is what do you see that other people 0:19:36.040 --> 0:19:38.399 do not? And you know, journalists tend to have an 0:19:38.400 --> 0:19:39.880 idea of the momentum. 0:19:39.480 --> 0:19:40.040 Of a story. 0:19:40.480 --> 0:19:42.520 So for instance, right now, I just I would say, 0:19:42.560 --> 0:19:48.119 speaking as a journalist and editor, that the fall of 0:19:48.280 --> 0:19:51.520 Elon Musk is the greatest business story of my entire life, 0:19:52.080 --> 0:19:55.560 absolutely worth getting out of retirement for, because here you 0:19:55.640 --> 0:19:58.359 have somebody who was real life iire man, you know, 0:19:58.800 --> 0:20:04.399 absolutely genuinely has three well beating major achievements under his belt. 0:20:04.600 --> 0:20:06.560 I don't care whether other people helped him do it, 0:20:06.600 --> 0:20:09.159 but he made it happen more than anybody else in 0:20:09.160 --> 0:20:09.919 the Western world. 0:20:10.520 --> 0:20:11.480 But the problem is there's. 0:20:11.280 --> 0:20:13.400