Speaker 1: Hi everyone, I'm Katie Curic and this is next Question.
Speaker 1: We're only a few weeks out from the mid terms
Speaker 1: and there is a lot to unpack. It seems like
Speaker 1: there's a new story every day about some race or another.
Speaker 1: So I've brought on some of my favorite political experts
Speaker 1: to help us all better understand what's at stake, what
Speaker 1: are the races to watch, and what this all means
Speaker 1: for My guest today are media and political strategists and
Speaker 1: my former podcasting co host, Brian Goldsmith. I tried to
Speaker 1: get Katie to think about running for office. I I
Speaker 1: seriously did. She won't. She won't consider it, sadly for me,
Speaker 1: as well as Liz Smith, a twenty year veteran of
Speaker 1: Democratic political campaigns from Barack Obama to Peep Buddha j Edge.
Speaker 1: She also has a new memoir out called Any Given Tuesday,
Speaker 1: a Political Love Story, and she has that same feral
Speaker 1: magnetism tour that Donald Trump does. And Republican political consultant
Speaker 1: and host along with David axel Rod of the political
Speaker 1: podcast Hacks on Tap Mike Murphy, Oh, I've been freaked
Speaker 1: up for a decade about American politics. Let's dive in
Speaker 1: Hello to my three amigoes. So great to see you all,
Speaker 1: and I'm very excited to unpack these upcoming mid terms,
Speaker 1: which I'm really getting pitted out about it, lovely. I
Speaker 1: just wanted to paint that picture for all our listeners.
Speaker 1: I mean, listen, it's felt like a bit of a
Speaker 1: roller coaster in terms of what we might expect. And
Speaker 1: I mean, I have my sort of point of view,
Speaker 1: but I've got you three, So who cares what I think?
Speaker 1: What do you think is going to happen? Or give
Speaker 1: us sort of the state of play right now, knowing
Speaker 1: full well that things could change on a dime. Mike,
Speaker 1: what do you see happening? Well, you know, I'm I've
Speaker 1: got the boring answer, which is I think it's gonna
Speaker 1: be a typical mid term. You know, generally since World
Speaker 1: War Two, the average has been the president's party loses
Speaker 1: about twenties six seats. So there's been three instances, you know,
Speaker 1: where that hasn't happened. So the big question is is
Speaker 1: it different this time? Well, you take the mid term problems,
Speaker 1: you add inflation on it, gas prices, all that sort
Speaker 1: of stuff, and that would probably make it worse for
Speaker 1: the Democrats. But there are some different things going on.
Speaker 1: There's row which has energized some young voters who normally
Speaker 1: don't vote in the off here that could be a
Speaker 1: thumb on the scale, and I would say some old
Speaker 1: voters tom exactly. But but the turnout problem is young voters.
Speaker 1: Democrats have a big problem in the off You're getting
Speaker 1: their young voters to show up. Maybe this will do it.
Speaker 1: There's some anecdotal evidence. We do at the University of
Speaker 1: Southern California Center for Plaical Future, I'm involved. We do
Speaker 1: a voter registration thing and this year is the biggest
Speaker 1: we've ever had by far. Is exploding, which is a typic.
Speaker 1: So you know, there's that. And the Republicans have nominated
Speaker 1: my beloved party that I'm hanging onto by a thread,
Speaker 1: as we've nominated some real cinder blocks. Well, I'm a conservative,
Speaker 1: and problem is I'm on policy. I'm right as center,
Speaker 1: So I can't, you know, get out the Carl Mark's
Speaker 1: heart tattoo and join the Democrats. I've been voting for
Speaker 1: some lately, I have to admit, because we have some
Speaker 1: unfit people running. But in a way of election, a
Speaker 1: cinder block can get washed twenty feet so they could
Speaker 1: win the Senate is the question. Yeah, Liz, what do
Speaker 1: you see? So I agree with both you and with Mike.
Speaker 1: It has been a complete roller coaster, starting with the
Speaker 1: messy withdrawal from Afghanistan, when we saw Biden somers tank
Speaker 1: and as a result, you know, in correlation with that,
Speaker 1: Democrats fortunes across the country tank. Then the Job's decision
Speaker 1: coming out, and now I agree with Mike that it
Speaker 1: is reverting to sort of a normal midterm. But I'm
Speaker 1: gonna add one more use of bad news and there
Speaker 1: for Democrats, which is something that I've heard from people
Speaker 1: on battleground races across the country, which is the things
Speaker 1: that keep them up at night are one, gas prices
Speaker 1: and to a COVID search. And I don't want to
Speaker 1: universalize my own experience too much, but I just personally
Speaker 1: just tested positive for COVID an hour ago. Oh gosh,
Speaker 1: this just endless justin I'm gonna put my mask on
Speaker 1: right here, and I gotta tell you, I'm hearing um
Speaker 1: from doctors and people across the country, like I see
Speaker 1: us just filling up. And I think if you add inflation,
Speaker 1: gas prices, COVID surging onto everything that it is. You know,
Speaker 1: it's looking like a typical midterms, which is bad news
Speaker 1: for Democrats. Yeah, you know, I feel like the timing
Speaker 1: on these economic issues, Brian could not be worse with
Speaker 1: the Democrats. I even read a piece this morning I
Speaker 1: forget where because I read so much about inflation numbers
Speaker 1: sort of in just a few months kind of leveling off,
Speaker 1: but not in time for the mid terms. So do
Speaker 1: you agree with Liz that we've got gas prices, inflation,
Speaker 1: and potentially a COVID surge and that's going to really
Speaker 1: serve to bury the Democrats. Yeah, I'm pretty pessimistic. I'm
Speaker 1: I'm a Democrat now, I'm no longer a journalist covering
Speaker 1: this stuff. And you know, in in life as in politics,
Speaker 1: timing is everything. And the Democrats were in a pretty
Speaker 1: good position to win the election that didn't happen in
Speaker 1: early September. Um, they're in a pretty crappy position for
Speaker 1: the election that is actually happening. Um in a few weeks.
Speaker 1: You have gas prices going up again, you have a
Speaker 1: failure of the party to drive an effective economic contrast,
Speaker 1: and that and not row is the number one issue.
Speaker 1: Two thirds of Americans think the economy is getting worse.
Speaker 1: Three quarters think that we're on the wrong track. This
Speaker 1: is a recipe for, as Mike said, a typical mid
Speaker 1: term year with you know, substantial losses for the Democrats.
Speaker 1: Why haven't the Democrats lis been able to make a
Speaker 1: compelling argument about the economy. It seems that they have
Speaker 1: almost abdicated this whole economic issue. I know traditionally voters
Speaker 1: inc Republicans do a better job handling the economy, but
Speaker 1: it seems like the Democrats are coming up slightly empty
Speaker 1: handed to me and correct me if I'm wrong. So
Speaker 1: I look, I agree with that. I think it's the
Speaker 1: results of a couple of things. And one is that
Speaker 1: a lot of these economic issues, whether it's either whether
Speaker 1: it's inflation or gas prices, it's largely out of you know,
Speaker 1: any one person, anyone political parties control. So there is
Speaker 1: sort of you know, hesitance to about how to communicate
Speaker 1: about that because it is out of people's control. And
Speaker 1: we know that, um, one day gas prices can be
Speaker 1: low and the next day Saudi Arabia can make an
Speaker 1: announcement right before the midterms that can um cause gas
Speaker 1: prices to spike again. The seconding is. Look, a lot
Speaker 1: of Democrats did sort of put all their eggs in
Speaker 1: the Row basket, and um, when the Dobs decision came out,
Speaker 1: we really saw a surge of enthusiasm there. And I
Speaker 1: still think ROW is gonna be really important, but it
Speaker 1: does make me a little bit nervous, whether I'm in
Speaker 1: New York or I was in Michigan last weekend, and
Speaker 1: I look at all the Democrats ads, and I gotta say,
Speaker 1: of them are about ROW, and I just I have
Speaker 1: heard less and less about it from voters, from friends
Speaker 1: who are outside of politics, and more about inflation and
Speaker 1: gas prices. And you know, I personally would like to
Speaker 1: see more Democrats going out there and saying we feel
Speaker 1: your pain. We haven't gotten everything right, but we are
Speaker 1: trying to lower your costs. We did the Inflation Reduction Act,
Speaker 1: which is gonna allow Medicare to negotiate for lower gas prices,
Speaker 1: cap the price of insulin. We voted to import b
Speaker 1: BE formula, which Republicans opposed. We vote to do this that,
Speaker 1: and to say at least we are trying, whereas the
Speaker 1: Republicans are trying to make your life miserable and hope
Speaker 1: that it helps them win, but we have heard less
Speaker 1: of that messaging. And part of the reason for that
Speaker 1: is because it's more remote. Drug prices aren't going to
Speaker 1: get lower tomorrow. It's gonna happen after the election. So
Speaker 1: the immediate economic concerns and voters have are harder for
Speaker 1: Democrats to address. Yeah, I think the problem is inflation
Speaker 1: is a politician killer because it breaks through all the
Speaker 1: talk and the three dimensional chess. You go to the
Speaker 1: grocery store and like you look at like a year ago,
Speaker 1: I was buying the same stuff for a lot less.
Speaker 1: So every week you get kicked there. Then you get
Speaker 1: kicked at the gas pump, and so those two things
Speaker 1: breakthrough all that. I've got a nine point plan or
Speaker 1: you know, and it's like, you know what, Trump might
Speaker 1: have been crazy, but when he was in I wasn't
Speaker 1: getting slaughtered like this. And older people are looking at
Speaker 1: their F one case and the stock market bouncing around,
Speaker 1: so it's nothing but pain and they're doing what vote.
Speaker 1: You know, everybody talks about a blue wave, it's not
Speaker 1: really it's the mid term wave. It can change color.
Speaker 1: It's tell the boss I'm unhappy, and Americans love doing that.
Speaker 1: We love changing the channel we love playing the pushing
Speaker 1: the eject button. And that's what's coming. And the only
Speaker 1: question is in a few of these close Senate races
Speaker 1: that the Republicans should be running away with, will the
Speaker 1: Republican candidates are under performing allow a Democrat to win
Speaker 1: in a year when they have no business winning. The
Speaker 1: House is gone? You know, I think that's over with,
Speaker 1: it's gone. Well. I want to talk about that in
Speaker 1: the role Marjorie Taylor Green may have if in fact
Speaker 1: a Republican majority is in the House. But first, um,
Speaker 1: you know, James Carville said, Republicans are hoping that women
Speaker 1: have a short attention span. We saw a really remarkable
Speaker 1: thing happen in Kansas in early August when it came
Speaker 1: to codifying the constitution right for getting rid of the
Speaker 1: protection for choice in Kansas, pretty ruby red state, right,
Speaker 1: So women were incredibly organized. The turnout was enormous. Do
Speaker 1: American women have a short attend and span? I mean,
Speaker 1: I guess that's the question. Or does the economy and
Speaker 1: those prices at the grocery during gas station overwhelmed the
Speaker 1: desire for reproductive rights in this country? What say you,
Speaker 1: Brian Goldsmith? You know, a friend of mine said, the
Speaker 1: Democrats were hoping for Revember and it might have just
Speaker 1: been raugust, and you know, that's that's a problem. I
Speaker 1: mean in Kansas, people were just voting up or down
Speaker 1: on that one issue, and that is fundamentally different than
Speaker 1: voting for a candidate for the Senate, where you've got
Speaker 1: a whole range of issues on the ballot um, including
Speaker 1: the economy and the cost of living and this stuff
Speaker 1: that just kind of punches you in the face every
Speaker 1: single day. People aren't out there trying, um, you know,
Speaker 1: most people to get an abortion every single day, but
Speaker 1: they are shopping for gas and groceries and and so
Speaker 1: you know, to Mike's point, the economy is not something
Speaker 1: that you can change between now in the election, but
Speaker 1: that doesn't mean that there isn't any thing you can
Speaker 1: do if you're a Democrat. And I worry our party
Speaker 1: has failed to learn the lessons of President Obama's reelection
Speaker 1: in twelve, which Liz played an integral role in where
Speaker 1: you had, uh, you know, mediocre to bad economy that
Speaker 1: people were feeling um and Obama was in charge, but
Speaker 1: he was able to drive a contrast about who's fighting
Speaker 1: to make the economy work for people like me, and
Speaker 1: and that's the contrast that I don't see out there. Yeah,
Speaker 1: and just to add to that, as the only woman
Speaker 1: besides the U Katie on the call, and I would say, yes,
Speaker 1: we um, I improved positive that women can have short
Speaker 1: attention spans, UM, but women can also be multitaskers. And
Speaker 1: women are also responsible for balancing their families checkbooks, for
Speaker 1: you know, filling up their gas tanks, for shopping for groceries.
Speaker 1: And these are UM things that they're seeing every day
Speaker 1: as well. So while you would think, okay, a fundamental
Speaker 1: right is on the line, that's number one thing, it
Speaker 1: is really hard to keep the focus on ROW when
Speaker 1: I think, as Mike said, you know, gas prices and
Speaker 1: the price of milk and whatever it is is hitting
Speaker 1: in the face UM every day. And so in places,
Speaker 1: you know, to Brian's point, um, like Kansas, where that's
Speaker 1: the thing on the ballot. In places like Michigan where
Speaker 1: you're gonna have that on the ballot, it ROW might
Speaker 1: be more of a factor because they have um an
Speaker 1: initiative they're about whether to overturn a complete ban on abortion.
Speaker 1: So there it's on the ballot and it's literally in
Speaker 1: your face. But a lot of other states, like if
Speaker 1: you live in New York, you know that our state
Speaker 1: law is very strong and protecting a woman's right to choose.
Speaker 1: There are seven battleground house races here that then row
Speaker 1: is probably gonna take a back seat. If you live
Speaker 1: in Arizona, row and abortion have never been in the
Speaker 1: top five issues issues for voters. Yeah, but what about
Speaker 1: this national abortion band that all the republic kids are
Speaker 1: talking about. To me, that really increases the urgency of
Speaker 1: this issue a little more than normal, does it? Not? Look?
Speaker 1: I sort of agree, But I also think we have
Speaker 1: to realize that we deal with the electorate as it is,
Speaker 1: not as it should be. And I agree, I think
Speaker 1: that these things should matter more. But it goes to
Speaker 1: show you that with a lot of voters, the things
Speaker 1: that matter most are the things that are right in
Speaker 1: front of their face. They don't think in terms of
Speaker 1: the long term, right right, And I think that's true
Speaker 1: of everything might go ahead. Yeah, there's also what's the
Speaker 1: most invisible group in American pop culture, pro life women.
Speaker 1: One out of six voters is a pro life female,
Speaker 1: the most pro choice group in America. By the way,
Speaker 1: You know, we always say women. No, it's young men
Speaker 1: who also don't vote in the off Your election is
Speaker 1: a real question about row is well, young men who
Speaker 1: tell democratic and are over very pro choice in most
Speaker 1: places show up. You know what's happened is or and
Speaker 1: and and Liz is right. There are plenty of states
Speaker 1: where it's a little bit settled. The Nevada center race,
Speaker 1: which doesn't get a lot of attention because decide the Senate.
Speaker 1: They've got a constitutional prohibition there. So it's not killing
Speaker 1: Adam Laxalt the way the Democratic incumbent thought in a
Speaker 1: very pro choice state, I think he's gonna beat her
Speaker 1: and pick up that seat. So between gas and groceries
Speaker 1: and the fact that it's not as overwhelmingly an eight
Speaker 1: twenty issue among the population, and in those swing seats,
Speaker 1: it's more pro choice than pro life, but it's not
Speaker 1: the hammer. In some places, it's not seen as a
Speaker 1: top issue. The New New York Times poll of people
Speaker 1: say the economy, only eight percent say abortion rights. Well,
Speaker 1: what about this national band, Brian? Is that looming in
Speaker 1: the minds of voters? You think in some ways, if
Speaker 1: the you know, Republicans take the Senate, they're gonna start
Speaker 1: working on that, I think pretty prompto. Right, I'm not sure.
Speaker 1: I didn't see a lot of enthusiasm from Mitch McConnell
Speaker 1: for a national abortion band. He may be kind of
Speaker 1: forced into it by a majority of his caucus, just
Speaker 1: as he's been forced into a whole bunch of stuff
Speaker 1: that he hasn't necessarily personally wanted to do. But you know,
Speaker 1: I'm not sure that that's going to be the election driver.
Speaker 1: I mean, the outcome of elections is as much about
Speaker 1: what is the issue territory you're fighting on as what
Speaker 1: each side says. And if we close this election on
Speaker 1: inflation and crime and perceptions about the direction of the economy,
Speaker 1: a lot of very flawed Republican candidates are going to
Speaker 1: get in because they have the edge on those issues. Well,
Speaker 1: let's talk about that. Let's talk about the Trump factor
Speaker 1: and the Biden factor. How effective has Trump been in
Speaker 1: terms of his endorsements of various candidates, Mike, I mean,
Speaker 1: he is still the standard bearer of the Republican Party.
Speaker 1: Is he helping hurting? Is it a wash? Well, in
Speaker 1: most primaries he helps a lot. But once you get
Speaker 1: him out of the primary world, you know, then then
Speaker 1: he's on a planet where he can barely breathe, and
Speaker 1: any swing general election, he's a problem, you know, where
Speaker 1: both parties are competitive, and those suburban congressional stage is
Speaker 1: a problem. You know, you don't see all these candidates
Speaker 1: running to him. Now, we have a few candidates who
Speaker 1: win a primary and are clueless and are running the
Speaker 1: general election like a Republican primary. So there are a
Speaker 1: few places, even in this wave where a Democrat who
Speaker 1: auto loses seat may win on that. But but Trump
Speaker 1: is an anchor around the neck of the party in
Speaker 1: a general election. The problem is he is a need
Speaker 1: to be in the center of everything. So he's kind
Speaker 1: of the unwanted guest who shows up and you know,
Speaker 1: what do you do? Speaking of the anchor, let's talk
Speaker 1: about the anchor lady running for governor in the state
Speaker 1: of Arizona, Carry Lake, who is sort of the new
Speaker 1: face of Trump is hum And I don't know if
Speaker 1: you all watched Dana Bash interview her on on State
Speaker 1: of the Union on Sunday. I thought Danna did a real,
Speaker 1: really incredible job. She kept calling her Dana, I think
Speaker 1: to get under her skin. I don't know if you
Speaker 1: noticed that. And she kind of interchanged Dana and Dana. Dana,
Speaker 1: I'm gonna have to disagree with you on the figure
Speaker 1: you just put out. The real issue, Dana is that
Speaker 1: the people don't trust. The question is are you undermining
Speaker 1: faith and elections by saying that election was stolen when
Speaker 1: there's absolutely no evidence to support that. Dana, You know
Speaker 1: she is really embracing Trump and vice versa. So what
Speaker 1: do you see going on there? Well? I think that, um,
Speaker 1: she's been a really fascinating candidate because unlike a lot
Speaker 1: of the other sort of Trump indoors senate candidates this
Speaker 1: cycle who run away from the press, don't really communicate
Speaker 1: with the public, sort of hide the ball, She's been
Speaker 1: very full frontal in her campaigning, both with voters traveling
Speaker 1: around the state and with local and national media. And
Speaker 1: she has that same feral magnetism to her that Donald
Speaker 1: Trump does, and sort of a knowledge of how to
Speaker 1: work a stage, how to work the media. That's interesting
Speaker 1: feral magnetism. Yeah, but there is something, there is something
Speaker 1: to when you see her work a stage that you
Speaker 1: don't quite have with the Hershel Walker, you don't have
Speaker 1: with a Doug Mastriano or Blake Masters, And it's why
Speaker 1: I think that she will be one of the you know,
Speaker 1: election deniers who slips through on the gubernatorial level. But
Speaker 1: she sort of perfected Trump is m and figured out
Speaker 1: how to take the crazy um and what I view
Speaker 1: is crazy and how to sort of soft sell it
Speaker 1: in these interviews, and certainly with Dana Bash. I mean,
Speaker 1: you saw just how slippery she was. One of the
Speaker 1: problems there, right, is that we don't have the strongest
Speaker 1: of Democratic candidates, sir, I'll just put it that way.
Speaker 1: And she refuses to um debate Carrie Lake, which I think,
Speaker 1: why is she doing that? Her her opponent, and that's
Speaker 1: the Secretary state, right, Lady Hobbs. Yeah, she's a train
Speaker 1: wreck of a candidate. That's the problem. They've They've got
Speaker 1: a slow pony, a train wreck of a candidate. She's
Speaker 1: really turned out to be a dud. And that's given
Speaker 1: the race to carry Lake in a state that is
Speaker 1: very wave affected. Yeah, and if you've been a major
Speaker 1: market local TV news anchor for twenty years, that is
Speaker 1: pretty darn good preparation for running for office and being
Speaker 1: slick on the receiving end of TV interviews and and
Speaker 1: knowing how to make an appearance that's effective. And you know,
Speaker 1: there's just no comparison in terms of candidate skills her.
Speaker 1: She's a great retail politician, whatever you think. And she
Speaker 1: has the best zoom filter in the business. The interview
Speaker 1: is real hilarious because there's about filters on the camera.
Speaker 1: She stole it. She stole it from Barbara Walters. It's unbelievable.
Speaker 1: You can't see a poor Yeah, is that true? Yes,
Speaker 1: you gotta see it. But I also think, Katie, maybe
Speaker 1: we've found the next chapter for you. Oh oh, I
Speaker 1: I don't think so. I try to get think about
Speaker 1: running for office. I I seriously did she She won't
Speaker 1: consider it. Sadly, my skin is too thin for that.
Speaker 1: When we come back, did you know more than two
Speaker 1: hundred election deniers are running for office up and down
Speaker 1: the ballot. We talk about what that means for our democracy.
Speaker 1: Right after this, can we just talk about a few
Speaker 1: other races where the Trump factor has helped jd vance.
Speaker 1: Obviously wouldn't be getting as much traction as he is,
Speaker 1: and I know he didn't do very well in that debate.
Speaker 1: Tim Ryan kind of ate his lunch, but isn't he
Speaker 1: still favorite? Dwyn in Ohio guys. I would argue it
Speaker 1: slightly differently. If it weren't for Trump, the Republican would
Speaker 1: be running away with a lot of these races. I mean,
Speaker 1: David McCormick in Pennsylvania I think would be up five
Speaker 1: or ten over Betterman. It's it's because Trump pushed a
Speaker 1: lot of very flawed Republican candidates, you know, to the
Speaker 1: nomination that a lot of these races that, as Mike says,
Speaker 1: are very way susceptible, are actually competitive, helpful in the primary,
Speaker 1: hurtful in the general. Exactly. It totally true. Vance is
Speaker 1: a terrible candidate. Ryan is running the best Democratic swing
Speaker 1: state campaign in the country for a Democrat. Now he's
Speaker 1: breaking all the d n C rules and he's running
Speaker 1: as kind of a lunch pail, a little more culturally conservative.
Speaker 1: There's a lot of kind of keeping his distance from Biden,
Speaker 1: right and saying we need we don't need an ass kisser,
Speaker 1: we need an ass kicker, which was a pretty good line.
Speaker 1: You gotta admit that said, this is an election where
Speaker 1: boxing hammers can win Ohio if they've got an hour
Speaker 1: after it. So I think it'll be closer than it
Speaker 1: ought to be, and maybe he'll do the upset of
Speaker 1: the century there, but he's going to need more of
Speaker 1: a lead than he has right now. But it goes
Speaker 1: back to what um and I agree with Mike, but
Speaker 1: it goes back to what Brian was saying, which is
Speaker 1: that so few Democrats are really weaponizing the economic case.
Speaker 1: Tim is an exception. Um. He from the day after
Speaker 1: j D won the primary, started running ads talking about
Speaker 1: how j D turned his back on the state of Ohio,
Speaker 1: moved to Silicon Valley, made all this money is coming
Speaker 1: back is funded by these billionaires. And it does remind
Speaker 1: me a little bit more of the messaging that Barack
Speaker 1: Obama used very effectively against Mitt Romney in which is
Speaker 1: to make the Republicans seem like they're the ones out
Speaker 1: of touch and that they're going to be disasters for
Speaker 1: your family. And that's one of the reasons why he's
Speaker 1: been able to hang tough in there. But there's no
Speaker 1: doubt it is gonna be really, really tough for a
Speaker 1: Democrat to win in this environment in Ohio. How much
Speaker 1: is Biden hurting And I mean, it's so frustrating to
Speaker 1: me that the Democrats seemed to be so feckless on
Speaker 1: the other hand, they've got a Democratic president whose approval
Speaker 1: rating is forty I don't even know what the latest
Speaker 1: approval rating is, forty three, he's creeped up a little,
Speaker 1: but his disapprovals fifty five. So the political majority is unapproved. So, Brian,
Speaker 1: how much of an albatross is Joe Biden? For all
Speaker 1: these Democratic candidates? You see people like Tim Ryan distancing himself. Um,
Speaker 1: that's happened in other races. I think Mark Kelly has
Speaker 1: tried to do that in Arizona and his Senate race. Um.
Speaker 1: But but you know they all have ds after their names.
Speaker 1: How much can they really do that? I mean, no
Speaker 1: more than normal normally in the midterm year, whoever is
Speaker 1: the incumbent president hurts his party a little bit. And
Speaker 1: the intensity of opposition to Joe Biden is not like
Speaker 1: the intensity of opposition to Donald Trump or even the
Speaker 1: intensity of opposition to Barack Obama in two He doesn't
Speaker 1: generate quite that level of vitriol, which is why you're
Speaker 1: seeing a lot of the Republican attack machine go after
Speaker 1: other villains, you know, AOC and even Pelosi and a
Speaker 1: few others. Um, So he doesn't help. But I don't
Speaker 1: think that that is the story of the election. Who's
Speaker 1: a Democratic attack machine going after Well, I think his
Speaker 1: name rhymes with Ronald Shrump, you know, I think. But
Speaker 1: the problem is he's not president. Why is Joe Biden
Speaker 1: so unpopular and have things like the climate bill, the
Speaker 1: student debt cancelation, anything he's done. Why is he still
Speaker 1: so unpopular? Well, you know, he's the Rodney Dangerfield of
Speaker 1: American politics because on the legislative side, he's done really well.
Speaker 1: He has passed more big important bipartisans stuff than any
Speaker 1: president in decades. The Chips Bill is huge. You know,
Speaker 1: we're gonna build semiconductors here and get kind of the
Speaker 1: energy equivalence you know, uh thing for the semis that
Speaker 1: are the key to almost anything we're gonna make in
Speaker 1: the future. Decent gun bill got done, of course, that
Speaker 1: by Parson. Infrastructure bill, one thing after another. I think
Speaker 1: there are two failures though. One is, you know, the
Speaker 1: minute they got infrastructure done, they switched over to hey,
Speaker 1: let's spend World War two level money on being FDR
Speaker 1: And they never got the victory lap they deserved there,
Speaker 1: and they didn't really try to take it. Uh And
Speaker 1: you know, I would be selling the Chips bill like
Speaker 1: the Apollo Project. It is a huge win for a
Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollar year American manufacturing jobs and a hundred
Speaker 1: and sixty issue. Republicans voted no, No, let the Chinese
Speaker 1: run the future. Um, I don't hear that. I don't
Speaker 1: hear any of that stuff. So Biden has not grabbed
Speaker 1: the microphone and done what he could do. Second, when
Speaker 1: you're paying many bar prices for gasoline, the president is
Speaker 1: going to get his butt kicked by the American public.
Speaker 1: And even though Biden didn't do it as the world market,
Speaker 1: but he's got the big job. The big job means
Speaker 1: you get the big blame, I guess. And and third,
Speaker 1: voters rarely vote to say thank you. They write on
Speaker 1: a choice about the future. They don't vote on the past.
Speaker 1: And you all were saying that you didn't think Biden
Speaker 1: or my understanding is you believe that Biden doesn't elicit
Speaker 1: the the hardcore vitriol that say Barack Obama does. But
Speaker 1: I mean, I was out on Long Island this weekend
Speaker 1: and there was a Lee's Elden caravan of cars with
Speaker 1: a lot of Maggot flags, a lot of Trump flags,
Speaker 1: and a lot of f Joe Biden flags. It was
Speaker 1: so gross. So I do feel like, you know, if
Speaker 1: he is the Rodney danger field of politics that he does.
Speaker 1: Maybe it's just the pro Trump, the hardcore Trump people,
Speaker 1: but I just honestly it's sickened me to see car
Speaker 1: after car with these huge flags that said f Joe Biden. Yeah.
Speaker 1: I mean, look, I think he does elicit UM. Maybe
Speaker 1: not as much as as Barack Obama, maybe not as
Speaker 1: Donald Trump, but he does elicit a lot of strong
Speaker 1: feelings from UM, from Republicans. And that's why it's been
Speaker 1: really really smart that unlike Donald Trump, he's sort of
Speaker 1: put his ego in the backseat. You don't see him
Speaker 1: put um sticking his deck out or popping up in
Speaker 1: these states where he is going to be a millstone
Speaker 1: around the neck of Democratic candidates. And the smartest thing
Speaker 1: that Joe Biden can do right now is just go
Speaker 1: be in rooms with rich people and raise UM more money.
Speaker 1: Because part of the reason why Democrats, why their numbers
Speaker 1: are falling in all these races across the country is
Speaker 1: you see the outside groups for Senate Republicans, for Congressional
Speaker 1: Republicans UM spending UM just ungodly. Uh sums of money
Speaker 1: um to defeat the Democrats, and that the cash um
Speaker 1: imbalance is a big problem for Democrats. So that's why
Speaker 1: it's smart of Biden to go to places like Oregon
Speaker 1: or Colorado where he can help. Kamala Harris, you know,
Speaker 1: was in the suburbs of Detroit this past weekend. But
Speaker 1: otherwise it's really smart of Joe Biden to sort of
Speaker 1: take a backseat in this election before we talk about
Speaker 1: some individual races. We got a lot of election deniers
Speaker 1: running out there. We also have secretary of states running
Speaker 1: who basically say the election was rigged and they're going
Speaker 1: to have the power to overturn right, basically essentially the
Speaker 1: will of the people and de facto rigg the next election. Right.
Speaker 1: I mean, how terrifying is that in terms of our
Speaker 1: democratic principles and how much is it going to come
Speaker 1: to fruition if some of these election deniers actually when
Speaker 1: there when their races, Well, it's a problem. And there
Speaker 1: was a headline this morning in the New York Times
Speaker 1: that I thought you saw that for the history books.
Speaker 1: You know, voters see democracy and peril but mostly don't care.
Speaker 1: And I think that is the story that other issues
Speaker 1: taking precedence because you know, abstract, it's not in front
Speaker 1: of their faces. Yeah, little d democratic principles are not
Speaker 1: you know what I'm thinking about as a voter day
Speaker 1: to day. And so yes, there will be election deniers
Speaker 1: swept up in this thing, partly because Trump has made
Speaker 1: that a requirement for not just winning his endorsement, but
Speaker 1: but extinguishing his opposition. I mean he went after yesterday,
Speaker 1: I think or two days ago the Republican nominee for
Speaker 1: Senate in Colorado, which is potentially a very competitive race
Speaker 1: because he'd rather lose than have a Republican who's not
Speaker 1: totally indebted to him. So he's been very effective as
Speaker 1: a sort of neo fascist in taking control of his
Speaker 1: party and punishing people, even people who agree with them
Speaker 1: maybe percent of the time, if they're not going to
Speaker 1: take the full magaline on elections. And Mike, does it
Speaker 1: just freak you out? Oh, I've been freaked out for
Speaker 1: a decade about American politics. But first of all, Trump's
Speaker 1: losing his grip. No, but about democracy, I think it's
Speaker 1: sent a decline. So I we'll see, we'll see new
Speaker 1: primary pull trumpets that means he'd win nomination now but
Speaker 1: it's now what it used to be. So politics is dynamic,
Speaker 1: it's always changing. I worry about democracy, but I don't
Speaker 1: panic about it. We have a huge cultural failure in
Speaker 1: the US. We we've converted politics into a reality show
Speaker 1: with no stakes, real housewives of the presidency, and so
Speaker 1: people have become spectators and they're like, it's all rhetoric.
Speaker 1: They don't believe there's a real threat, because if they
Speaker 1: thought there's a real threat, they do something about it.
Speaker 1: And remember it's tribal. The Democrats all think, you know,
Speaker 1: democracy has gone Trump's gonna goose step into the White House,
Speaker 1: you know, And that's half the vote. The other half
Speaker 1: think maybe of them are worried, the other saying it's rhetoric.
Speaker 1: So the country is not unified on the problem. I
Speaker 1: have some faith, like in the last election, that good
Speaker 1: people in the right places will do the right thing
Speaker 1: in the end. I mean, Trump's thing was thrown out
Speaker 1: by every judge you looked at it. Election officials of
Speaker 1: the Republican Party. It's easy for Democrats to call Trump names,
Speaker 1: and they're right. I agree with them, but Republicans have
Speaker 1: to commit career suicide to do it. But people did it.
Speaker 1: Brad Raffensburger did it. The election officials in Michigan did it.
Speaker 1: So do I believe the threat is there? And I'm
Speaker 1: am I extremely worked up about it. Yes. Do I
Speaker 1: think it's the trux of this election. No, but I
Speaker 1: think measures are going to have to be taken. And
Speaker 1: the one thing they may get done in the lame
Speaker 1: Duck I would bet they will is the electoral account reformat,
Speaker 1: which is a quiet technical piece of legislation that bolts
Speaker 1: down the electoral college, which is vital. Now the left
Speaker 1: will say, oh, the Supreme Court will do it, No,
Speaker 1: they won't. It is it is the patch on the
Speaker 1: software that has created a lot of this vulnerability, and
Speaker 1: I think that's going to be gone by Christmas or
Speaker 1: by the end of January. Liz, I want you to
Speaker 1: weigh in on this because this is something I can't say.
Speaker 1: It keeps me up at night, but I'm completely, very
Speaker 1: very stressed out about uh sort of having the cards
Speaker 1: stacked in a way in many of these states that
Speaker 1: will basically disrupt democracy. Right. It's and it's you've got governors,
Speaker 1: you've got secretaries of state, attorneys general, state legislators. I
Speaker 1: think they're over two election deniers, you know, running crofts
Speaker 1: across the country at every level. And so yeah, no,
Speaker 1: we should be very concerned. But you know, I don't
Speaker 1: have anything inspiring or or heartening to say on this.
Speaker 1: It's that it does seem more remote to people. And
Speaker 1: the thing that gets less focus is not necessarily the
Speaker 1: Mastriano's a carry lakes, but all the people up and
Speaker 1: down the ticket, right who are going to get elected
Speaker 1: and who have actual power in this arena, right, Yeah, yeah,
Speaker 1: for pulling the levers of elections and who have been
Speaker 1: on a bash it by the way, and how they've
Speaker 1: paint on this. They haven't like tried to hide the
Speaker 1: ball here. They've been very open about the fact that um,
Speaker 1: you know, they take was stolen and that if four
Speaker 1: doesn't go their way that they'll make sure that they
Speaker 1: or their secretaries stay what whoever it is, you know,
Speaker 1: takes a close look at things. So I think it
Speaker 1: is something we should be very concerned about because increasingly
Speaker 1: it looks like the lunatics have been taking over this
Speaker 1: asylum in the GOP and that not only that, is
Speaker 1: that they are very um embracing and like Michigan was
Speaker 1: on the early end of this, like in April when
Speaker 1: we saw violent militias storm the capital there it almost
Speaker 1: felt like a tester run for January six. And the
Speaker 1: election to the nihilism does sort of seem to go
Speaker 1: hand in hand with electoral violence, and I just think
Speaker 1: that that's something, not that we need another thing to
Speaker 1: be concerned about after this, sorry Katie, but another thing
Speaker 1: that we should keep an eye on, and that's something
Speaker 1: I'm certainly concerned about um going into the November election. Yeah,
Speaker 1: i'd say one of the thing there is no moral
Speaker 1: equivalence between far left AOC Bernie Democrats and and MAGA Republicans.
Speaker 1: The far left people believe in democracy and the rule
Speaker 1: of law, and they just hold policy views with which
Speaker 1: moderate voters disagree. But the problem is Democrats have been
Speaker 1: a little bit too defined by some of these extreme
Speaker 1: voices to the point where in polling swing voters see
Speaker 1: Democrats and Republicans as equally extreme. That is a big,
Speaker 1: big issue, and Democrats need to turn around and address
Speaker 1: it a s a p or it's going to be
Speaker 1: the death of our party and all sorts of critical races. Yeah,
Speaker 1: I agree with that one footnote, And this is not
Speaker 1: a ray of hope or anything. It is kind of
Speaker 1: like God forbid Mike a flickering, a flickering lightbulb with
Speaker 1: some hope. A third of the election deniers are lying
Speaker 1: through their teeth because they're trying to survive in Republican politics,
Speaker 1: Sam t rhetoric. The worry is the other six fifty
Speaker 1: to sixty that our stone cold nuts, and how many
Speaker 1: of them actually win. And the craziest one I worry about,
Speaker 1: because I think she has a good chance of winning,
Speaker 1: is the potential future governor of Arizona. The rest of
Speaker 1: the master and some of those are mostly gonna all
Speaker 1: get killed off by the electorate, but we could have
Speaker 1: a real crank or two as a governor, which is why,
Speaker 1: again the electoral cadreformat, you've got to take some of
Speaker 1: the power away. So if you have a rogue governor,
Speaker 1: they can't start, you know, sending non elected electoral college
Speaker 1: people to misrepresent the state's voters intention That is the
Speaker 1: big loophole. Well, let's hope that happens before we dig
Speaker 1: into a few of these states. So you know, we've
Speaker 1: mentioned a lot of polls already in this conversation, and
Speaker 1: polling was very problematic, um and obviously flawed in the past,
Speaker 1: and it doesn't seem that a lot of changes have
Speaker 1: been instituted to improve the accuracy of polling. So how
Speaker 1: you know when when you look at the polling are
Speaker 1: you are you do you believe it? Or are you
Speaker 1: kind of thinking that might be under reporting certain certain groups?
Speaker 1: You know, Trump supporters don't want to be is forthcoming
Speaker 1: with polsters, so they sometimes overestimate democratic you know, turnout
Speaker 1: or the effect of democratic turnout. So what what's your
Speaker 1: take on polling these days? Yeah, I'm with you. With
Speaker 1: every election cycle, I um have less and less faith
Speaker 1: in public polling. And one thing that we've just seen
Speaker 1: consistently the last few cycles, but is that it does
Speaker 1: seem to undercount or underestimate the support for Republican candidates,
Speaker 1: UM and for Trump supporters because they are, you know,
Speaker 1: less trusting of polsters. So, you know, we saw a massive,
Speaker 1: massive difference between the public polls and and and the
Speaker 1: actual results in places like Ohio and Wisconsin, UM and
Speaker 1: even in Michigan it was a little bit less of that.
Speaker 1: But um and that makes me really concerned because in
Speaker 1: Ohio and wisconsinent it looks like those Senate races are
Speaker 1: going away from us, but the Michigan you still see
Speaker 1: sort of healthy leads for Regretchen Whitmer there um and
Speaker 1: some of the candidates there. But it does make me
Speaker 1: concern that we are sort of missing the picture here.
Speaker 1: Then add in with that, you have these completely out
Speaker 1: of left field polls where you see the Democrat up
Speaker 1: by one point in the gubernatorial race in Oklahoma, or
Speaker 1: where you see leave zeld In within four points of
Speaker 1: um Kathy Hokel in a poll today. And if you
Speaker 1: put too much faith in polls, you might die of whiplash.
Speaker 1: You know, we did an episode of Hacks on Tap
Speaker 1: with a PhD Republican Polls to Is said, you know,
Speaker 1: polling isn't what it used to be. The science of
Speaker 1: it is very strong. You get a random sample of voters,
Speaker 1: it's it's it's very telling. But two problems. One is
Speaker 1: it's hard to get a random sampling more because nobody
Speaker 1: answer their phone, so you have to do internet panels.
Speaker 1: You have to text people there. It's called multimodel. It's
Speaker 1: the best we've got now, but it's trickier. The other
Speaker 1: problem is most people totally misunderstand polling. They use it
Speaker 1: like a therapy animal. Oh my side's ahead, we're gonna win.
Speaker 1: I feel good. Oh no, new Pole New York Times
Speaker 1: says we're gonna lose. I feel bad. Must be something
Speaker 1: wrong with that poll. The polls are terrible a projecting forward.
Speaker 1: What political consultants use polls for is to take the
Speaker 1: voter's head apart to figure out what new information we
Speaker 1: can inject into the campaign dialogue, to try to get
Speaker 1: a future outcome, to move our way. Who you're going
Speaker 1: to vote for is the rear view mirror. You can
Speaker 1: figure out who would have won an election that didn't
Speaker 1: exist a week ago, and then that that stupid question.
Speaker 1: The media loves of the generic ballot, which we will
Speaker 1: vote for Congress nationally, so that's misleading. But again the
Speaker 1: media business. Polling is the only time where the media
Speaker 1: will create a story by buying a poll, often a crappy,
Speaker 1: cheap one, and report that news. So people need to
Speaker 1: like relax. I was gonna say it feels like the
Speaker 1: media is being really irresponsible and tend it and its
Speaker 1: reliance off these polls, Right, Brian, I would say there
Speaker 1: are two additional problems, and I totally agree with you, Katie.
Speaker 1: Um one is under accounting non college educated voters who
Speaker 1: have become very skeptical about all sorts of institutions, including
Speaker 1: the press, including posters, in part because they've been trained
Speaker 1: by Trump to be that way. He's quite open about that.
Speaker 1: But second, um more optimistically, from a democratic perspective, you
Speaker 1: could see a different composition of the electorate. Mike and
Speaker 1: Liz were alluding to this earlier because of Row, because
Speaker 1: of other factors that make this election potentially a little
Speaker 1: bit different than normal. You could see greater numbers of
Speaker 1: young people, of Democrats, of African Americans than typically shows
Speaker 1: up for a mid term election, and that could change
Speaker 1: the modeling behind a lot of this polling. This polling
Speaker 1: is often built on assumptions about likely voters. Yeah, you
Speaker 1: never want to trust that. When they say this poll
Speaker 1: is likely voters, it sounds better. It's actually much worse
Speaker 1: because the poster has made arbitrary choices about who's going
Speaker 1: to vote, and they don't really know. They don't know,
Speaker 1: they don't know that. The hardest thing that they should
Speaker 1: and the good ones work on, is get a true
Speaker 1: random sample of based on history, the most likely electorate
Speaker 1: and then they can ask some trick questions about what
Speaker 1: data is the election or who are you going to
Speaker 1: vote for? Without given names that they can name the candidate,
Speaker 1: then you know they're engaged in So there's some some
Speaker 1: trickery to it. But polling is still very helpful to
Speaker 1: run a campaign. But if you want to look at
Speaker 1: a poll today and decide who's gonna win all the
Speaker 1: elections and decide whether you feel good or bad, it helps,
Speaker 1: but it can't really do that for you. History is
Speaker 1: the best guide of how people vote. After the break,
Speaker 1: we're going to dig into some very juicy state races.
Speaker 1: Let's talk to Georgia and Mike. You can also talk
Speaker 1: about any state you're interested in, but let's talk about
Speaker 1: Georgia because it is crazy. I mean a herschel Walker,
Speaker 1: I mean Raphael Warnock. Go ahead, just have at it, guys.
Speaker 1: Well you think this is crazy, wait till herschel Walker
Speaker 1: wins and Trump starts talking about him as the leading
Speaker 1: VP candidate. There will be lines outside psychiatrists office for
Speaker 1: miles in the East and West coast. Um. You know,
Speaker 1: Georgia is going to be a runoff. We get to
Speaker 1: do this thing again. They have a Loft, you don't
Speaker 1: get the fifty and there's a libertarian running, so it's
Speaker 1: quite likely we have the whole Senate or one extra
Speaker 1: vote decided in early December, not even on election day.
Speaker 1: But Herschel's the classic boxing Hammers candidate. In a wave,
Speaker 1: he can win. Uh, and so he's got I saw this.
Speaker 1: You know with other candidates, when you're wildly credentialed in
Speaker 1: something outside politics and people are in a wrong track
Speaker 1: collection and hate politics, they give you a lot of leeway.
Speaker 1: You mean, the fact that he's an honorary police officer,
Speaker 1: is that what you're leading to. I'll tell you. I'll
Speaker 1: tell you. Everybody's laughing about the toy badge, But if
Speaker 1: you deconstruct that to that election and that electorate, and
Speaker 1: I've worked statewide in Georgia, that bad said I like cops,
Speaker 1: and that's not bad for Georgia cannidate to have be
Speaker 1: the worst moment. That debate was not Walkers. Walker did better.
Speaker 1: You know, he was mediocre, but Warnock was so bad.
Speaker 1: When Warnock can't answer if he's for Joe Biden or not,
Speaker 1: come on, we all know he's for Joe Biden. It's
Speaker 1: okay to say it, but he won't answer. He becomes
Speaker 1: a politician and Walker's the simple guy sat Biden groceries. Yes,
Speaker 1: Walker had a better or debate, the deserved and we're
Speaker 1: not getting awful debate. It was a draw and it
Speaker 1: should have been a wipeout. And I can even argue
Speaker 1: net Net. I think herschel is going to be a
Speaker 1: little higher in the polling this week because I think
Speaker 1: he came out of it better than even Yeah, and
Speaker 1: he partially benefited from the expectations being set so low.
Speaker 1: He did a good job of setting them low, but
Speaker 1: Democrats did a good job of doing it for him,
Speaker 1: and I think that was a mistake going into this.
Speaker 1: And I think all along to some extent that Democrats
Speaker 1: have underestimated uh Herschel Walker's appeal. But what about the
Speaker 1: hypocrisy of being anti abortion and and you know, saying
Speaker 1: that was his check Do people just not care? I
Speaker 1: think people care about where you stand on an issue.
Speaker 1: I think less and less over time people care about hypocrisy.
Speaker 1: So for if you're a Republican voter, you care about
Speaker 1: keeping the Senate. What you care about is the fact
Speaker 1: that Herschel Walker is saying the right things to you
Speaker 1: now on abortion. Whatever he didn't his path us, I
Speaker 1: don't think it matters that much to him. I know
Speaker 1: people are saying it could help around the margins with
Speaker 1: UM swing voters, and and maybe that's possible, but I
Speaker 1: think it's an election like where so many people already
Speaker 1: have their minds made up that it's not going to
Speaker 1: change a lot of minds on herschel Walker and others
Speaker 1: for you to disagree. But I think the other interesting
Speaker 1: thing that I'm looking at in Georgia is do split
Speaker 1: ticket voters still exist? Because we're seeing very different polling
Speaker 1: embers in the gubnatorial race from what we're seeing in
Speaker 1: the Senate race where Brian Camp has a very healthy
Speaker 1: lead over Stacy Abrams. And in recent years we've really
Speaker 1: seen drop off in split ticket voters. So we fascinating
Speaker 1: to see if how many people in Georgia are willing
Speaker 1: to cast a ballot, you know, for Camp, but then
Speaker 1: also for war Knock. My guess is not as many
Speaker 1: as we're seeing in the polling right now, But that
Speaker 1: is something that I think matters a lot for the
Speaker 1: future of partisan politics in the country. Yeah, that's interesting
Speaker 1: because I've been reading Brian a lot about people voting
Speaker 1: for Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania and then memot Oz for
Speaker 1: Senate when you're talking about like the memot Oz is
Speaker 1: gaining ground and I want to talk about that race
Speaker 1: now because that to me is so fascinating on so
Speaker 1: many different levels. Um, what do you think Georgia Pennsylvania
Speaker 1: to break up your Yeah, that's okay, I'm used to it. Yeah,
Speaker 1: we worked together a long time, So go ahead. I
Speaker 1: would say, I think Warnock has got a hope that
Speaker 1: he hits fifty in November because I think December, and
Speaker 1: I'm not sure if Mike and Liz agree, is very
Speaker 1: dangerous for him because in December it becomes potentially a
Speaker 1: fight over who controls the Senate. And I think a
Speaker 1: lot of voters could hold their noses and vote for
Speaker 1: Walker because in a generic ballot kind of election, they
Speaker 1: would perfor a Republican control over Democratic control in Georgia. Also,
Speaker 1: lower turnout in the arms will spell blood and they
Speaker 1: turn out m all right, Well, let's move to Pennsylvania,
Speaker 1: because a lot of people are saying in Pennsylvania to
Speaker 1: your point, Liz about Georgia, it also might be a
Speaker 1: split ticket with people voting for Josh Shapiro and Memotaz.
Speaker 1: Let's talk about that race. John Fetterman, I've been fascinated
Speaker 1: by this by the NBC political correspondent saying that he
Speaker 1: didn't understand sort of the small talk and he uses
Speaker 1: I guess a teleprompter to help with some of the
Speaker 1: auditory issues caused by his stroke. Um. That has been
Speaker 1: a fascinating race. Also, I know Memotas and talking about
Speaker 1: crude detaise at the grocery store, which is almost like
Speaker 1: Obama talking about a rugala, right, and um, so what's
Speaker 1: happening there? How do you see this all shaking out?
Speaker 1: Who wants to take that? Well? You know what's fascinating
Speaker 1: is today I saw a brand new ad that Oz
Speaker 1: put up um in which he says, or the voice
Speaker 1: over says, John Vetterman is not like Josh Shapiro. He
Speaker 1: is extreme on crime. So Oz is making an explicit
Speaker 1: play for Shapiro voters and basically throwing mass Triano under
Speaker 1: the bus by pumping up Shapiro as being good and
Speaker 1: reasonable on criminal justice matters and crime. So Oz really
Speaker 1: sees sort of his fate as tied to getting some
Speaker 1: of those split ticket voters like suburban women, Liz, Yeah, exactly,
Speaker 1: like people who might have concerns about Vetterman being too
Speaker 1: progressive on criminal justice issues, and so it was talking
Speaker 1: about his votes on the parole board. But there also
Speaker 1: is this factor about Vetterman's health, and I think some
Speaker 1: of it, some of the criticisms are fair, some are unfair,
Speaker 1: but again, we can't tell voters what they care about.
Speaker 1: And the debate that's coming up is gonna be really, really,
Speaker 1: really important, um and more important than your average debate
Speaker 1: because the voters are going to be looking to see
Speaker 1: Ken John Fetterman perform in a way that gives me
Speaker 1: the confidence in his ability to perform for me as
Speaker 1: a U S. Senator. And that's why I don't think
Speaker 1: that the their decision to do the NBC interview was
Speaker 1: that much of a disaster. You know, I know feelings
Speaker 1: are split on it, but it could also be a
Speaker 1: dynamic like we saw in Georgia where Republicans Walker Democrats
Speaker 1: lowered the expectations so much for Walker that you know,
Speaker 1: if you could just speak in complete sentences, it's basically
Speaker 1: a win. And we might see that dynamic for a
Speaker 1: Fetterman in the upcoming. Yeah, sort of like Sarah Palent.
Speaker 1: Sarah Palment did well in that debate because she was
Speaker 1: so underestimated and can I call you Joe? And she
Speaker 1: was stim in the trees, but she was able to
Speaker 1: do you know, as long as her head didn't spin
Speaker 1: around and she didn't vomit. You know that people thought
Speaker 1: she was pretty good exactly. You know, ads though Fetterman
Speaker 1: is getting killed by what we call the second look
Speaker 1: in politic. He had some rocket fuell, he kept going
Speaker 1: and people take the final look. This stroke has been
Speaker 1: a problem. Now. I think the Federman campaign could have
Speaker 1: done a better job of making him rocky in the
Speaker 1: whole state rooting for him on the stroke instead of
Speaker 1: being guarded about it. They've they've kind of changed that up.
Speaker 1: They've been in a DRD campaign otherwise. And the other
Speaker 1: problem is the crime record. You know, there are two
Speaker 1: kinds of democratic crime records. They're kind of moderate ones
Speaker 1: that are probably just gonna manufacture some trouble about and
Speaker 1: there's pretty hardcore stuff where they actually mean the liberal
Speaker 1: point of view and crime and voters aren't there and
Speaker 1: the Republicans kill him with it. That's what happened in
Speaker 1: Wisconsin with Mandela Barnes, and it's happening now to Fetterman.
Speaker 1: So you're gonna have a debate where the question that
Speaker 1: I think Federman can navigate with low expectations is the
Speaker 1: stroke issue. But Oz made a living on TV and
Speaker 1: he's really he's caught something on this crime stuff. It's real,
Speaker 1: and you know it. Democrats get uncomfortable. All those Republicans again,
Speaker 1: well they they scored here because there's real stuff. He's
Speaker 1: got felons working on his campaign because he's a very
Speaker 1: progressive guy on that. You know, you can argue the policy,
Speaker 1: maybe he's right, but the voters of Pennsylvania in the
Speaker 1: suburbs and other areas excurbs aren't there, and harden the
Speaker 1: campaign to tell people they're wrong. This is another argument
Speaker 1: for vigorously contested primaries in Pennsylvania and in Wisconsin. Fetterman
Speaker 1: and Barnes didn't really have a back and forth with
Speaker 1: their opponents about their vulnerabilities. Those were both positive elections
Speaker 1: and campaigns, and it would have served Democratic voters better
Speaker 1: if this stuff could have been litigated earlier, if we
Speaker 1: could have seen how Barnes and Fetterman would have held
Speaker 1: up on those issues, you know, six months ago rather
Speaker 1: than a couple of weeks before the election. The Wisconsin candidate.
Speaker 1: I think either of them would have been much stronger.
Speaker 1: Barnes was. That was madness in their primary to do
Speaker 1: what they did politically. What's also madness is that Rman
Speaker 1: and Barnes's campaigns didn't see these attacks coming from a
Speaker 1: mile away. UM smart candidates like Tim Ryan in Ohio,
Speaker 1: where even if you look at Cheryl Beasley in North
Speaker 1: Carolina or Val Demming's in Florida, they knew that Republicans
Speaker 1: were gonna come back with the defund the police playbook,
Speaker 1: and they made sure over the summer to run ads
Speaker 1: featuring UM sheriffs or you know, cops whatever, directed camera
Speaker 1: talking about how each of these candidates would be tough
Speaker 1: on crime and UM. Neither Fetterman nor Barnes did that
Speaker 1: even when they arguably had or inarguably had the worst
Speaker 1: negatives on these issues. And the fact that they didn't
Speaker 1: prepare for that is malpractice. Well, let's since you bring
Speaker 1: them up. Easiley and Demeans. Are they both gonna lose?
Speaker 1: Probably they're both in striking distance. But this year I
Speaker 1: would bet against both of them easily. I think has
Speaker 1: a slightly better shot based on data I've seen, including
Speaker 1: public polls and demings in Florida. I think Florida is
Speaker 1: going to be very, very tough. North Carolina these days, interestingly,
Speaker 1: is a little bit tighter. But I think given where
Speaker 1: this is headed, I I don't disagree with Mike, so
Speaker 1: can I plug one last race for a quake. I'm
Speaker 1: doing the superpack on this one because he's a friend
Speaker 1: of mine and it's an amazing race, which is the
Speaker 1: Utah Senate race. You have Evan McMullen, Republican hill staffer,
Speaker 1: former CIA Clandestine Services agent, running as an independent, with
Speaker 1: this amazing kind of republic crat coalition of independence Democrats,
Speaker 1: and a significant amount of Republicans running against Republican incumbent
Speaker 1: Mike Lee, who had been in trouble. He had a
Speaker 1: primary thirty nine percent of the state Republicans voted against him.
Speaker 1: This thing is neck and neck. It's not being noticed,
Speaker 1: McMullan says, and he means it. I will not caucus
Speaker 1: with Schumer or McConnell. I will be truly independent in
Speaker 1: the Senate, and of course, the Club for Growth and
Speaker 1: all the super pacts on the hard our side are
Speaker 1: going after him, but he's gone from seventeen behind you
Speaker 1: with margin of air race. It's really kind of amazing
Speaker 1: and it's a real Mr Smith thing, and we'll see
Speaker 1: if it can survive the hatchets flying through the air
Speaker 1: right now. But um, it's the only time I've seen
Speaker 1: a genuine hybrid candidacy with a lot of support from
Speaker 1: all three parties, not just two and a label. And
Speaker 1: we'll see what happens. It's going to be fascinating. Yeah,
Speaker 1: we'll keep an eye on that. Well. Donors need to
Speaker 1: pay more attention to races in the Pacific and Mountain
Speaker 1: time zones. Um, they have a little bit of the
Speaker 1: same problem that the New York d C Press does
Speaker 1: in covering races across the whole country that is critical
Speaker 1: to holding the Senate. Utah is a really fascinating race
Speaker 1: for the pro democracy cause, and so I think these
Speaker 1: things are really worth focusing on. And you were saying
Speaker 1: Nevada earlier that the Democratic incumbent senator is likely to
Speaker 1: lose to Paul lack salts On right. I think it's
Speaker 1: very very close. Um, I'm not quite willing to go
Speaker 1: as far as Mike can say that she's likely to lose.
Speaker 1: I I think she could lose. I think, you know,
Speaker 1: if the election were today, she might um. Nevada Democrats
Speaker 1: have a history of pulling out these tough races over
Speaker 1: the last ten years. We'll see if they can do
Speaker 1: it this time. But part of the problem has been
Speaker 1: extraordinary democratic deterioration among Latino voters who are not Latinos
Speaker 1: in Florida are very different than Latinos in Arizona, and
Speaker 1: even within these states, you know, Dominicans are different than Nicaraguans.
Speaker 1: And I mean these are all individual voters, but I
Speaker 1: think we can make some generalizations about a group that
Speaker 1: Democrats considered part of their base. Remember all the talk
Speaker 1: about communities of color and black and brown voters, Well,
Speaker 1: Latinos are not like black voters who vote for the
Speaker 1: Democrat attic party, very very different, you know, history, political ideology,
Speaker 1: and this could become a real crisis for the party.
Speaker 1: And as much attention as it has gotten over the
Speaker 1: last few weeks, is it is not enough? Well, it
Speaker 1: got a lot of attention in Florida in right, because
Speaker 1: they were very surprised how the Latino vote panned out.
Speaker 1: In um, and so I think this is mental Texas
Speaker 1: to ye, I mean the Damns always go to identity
Speaker 1: with the Latino vote, whre the Republicans go of lunch
Speaker 1: pale stuff, and was fastening about Nevada, that hugely powerful
Speaker 1: Latino vote. There is also heavily unionized culinary workers in
Speaker 1: Clark County, and that's helps the Democrats. Doesn't Harry the
Speaker 1: old Harry Reid machine. But Harry's gone now and the
Speaker 1: machine right now is not doing what it normally does.
Speaker 1: It's one reason why I bet on Laxalt. But we're
Speaker 1: seeing because there's some cross pressure there. We'll see if
Speaker 1: the trend continues. I have to ask you about Arizona
Speaker 1: real quickly. Blake Masters and Mark Kelly. I'm friendly with
Speaker 1: Mark Kelly because I did a documentary about gun gun
Speaker 1: violence and got to know Mark and Gabby pretty well.
Speaker 1: And Blake Masters has kind of changed his website when
Speaker 1: it came to his anti abortion policies. And is Mark
Speaker 1: gonna win? I think yeah, I think he is. He's
Speaker 1: running another really, really good campaign where he has separated
Speaker 1: his brand a lot from the national one, and he's
Speaker 1: sort of seen as his own person. He did a
Speaker 1: really good job a couple of years ago separating himself
Speaker 1: from Biden on the border. He's run ads. He's one
Speaker 1: of those candidates who saw that to fund the police
Speaker 1: ads coming from a while away, ran at about it.
Speaker 1: I think how his mom was a police officer. But
Speaker 1: has really gone out and run on the issues that
Speaker 1: voters care about and making economic case, but also running
Speaker 1: as Mark Kelly, not as a generic Democrat. And I
Speaker 1: think that's been a really really smart tactic. And to
Speaker 1: lose this point, he hasn't been rewhelmed by Republican money.
Speaker 1: I think he's been an extraordinarily effective fundraiser. Masters has
Speaker 1: had trouble kind of getting his act together, um, and
Speaker 1: so the outside Republican groups are not coming in in
Speaker 1: the same way. And part of that is some drama
Speaker 1: between Peter Tiele and Donald Trump, which is an interesting
Speaker 1: soap opera. But the net result is I think Kelly
Speaker 1: is well positioned in that race. Yeah, Masters went out
Speaker 1: and picked a fight in a feud with Mitch McConnell,
Speaker 1: which would not be in my playbook for how to
Speaker 1: get help in a Senate race this year. Yeah, that
Speaker 1: was that. That was sort of weird and hard to understand.
Speaker 1: What about Stacy Abrams and Brian Camp Um. I heard
Speaker 1: you all say about the split ticket thing, and uh,
Speaker 1: what happened to the Abrams campaign? Well, I get a
Speaker 1: FOURK because I think she's done and it's an amazing
Speaker 1: story because she was at the top of the Democratic
Speaker 1: Party and made, in my view and not smart decision
Speaker 1: to try for her comeback in an off year in
Speaker 1: a state that can have a Republican wave. Now she's
Speaker 1: going to get be and she's going to drop to
Speaker 1: double a baseball in the Democratic Party when she could
Speaker 1: have if Biden doesn't run again, she could have been
Speaker 1: a contender. I think so, Uh, Camp is good, Paul,
Speaker 1: He's significantly ahead and it's going to stay that way
Speaker 1: in my view. What do you think happened, Brian? I
Speaker 1: think a lot of it is structural, As Mike says,
Speaker 1: if you're running in a purple uh slash reddish state
Speaker 1: in an off year against a popular incumbent, it's going
Speaker 1: to be very challenging, no matter how adroit you are
Speaker 1: as a candidate. Um. And then I think you know,
Speaker 1: she also made some mistakes over the last couple of
Speaker 1: years marketing herself a little bit more for a national
Speaker 1: Democratic audience and a little less for a Georgia Democratic audience.
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't think this is gonna be enough
Speaker 1: to save Betto in Texas. But I think since his
Speaker 1: presidential campaign, Betto has been very focused on a Texas
Speaker 1: specific message, and I think he took a little bit
Speaker 1: longer for Abrams to make that switch. I want you,
Speaker 1: I want to talk to you real quickly about Texas. Sorry,
Speaker 1: I'm not going to keep you guys all all afternoon,
Speaker 1: but Betto. I know Abvitt leads better or work for
Speaker 1: the Texas subernatorial race by four points in the latest
Speaker 1: pool that we can't believe. So is does Betto have
Speaker 1: a chance to pull it off? You think? I don't
Speaker 1: think so. I think that those last three to five
Speaker 1: points in Texas are like climbing Mount Everest for a Democrat.
Speaker 1: I think you know, Texas has been moving in a
Speaker 1: more competitive direction for a while, but I don't think
Speaker 1: it's going to happen this year. Stay with me, friends,
Speaker 1: because right after this we're tackling and Donald Trump before
Speaker 1: we go, Uh, you think that Trump is on the decline? Mike,
Speaker 1: I heard you say that, who do you think will
Speaker 1: run in is Fronto Santis, the rising star of the
Speaker 1: Republican Party. Well, de Santis is showing is possible to
Speaker 1: be a Trump alternative and survived the preseason if you're
Speaker 1: a cultural warrior and you can't be attacked as a
Speaker 1: squishy you know, moderate Reno Republican. So he's proving the
Speaker 1: case that there can be competition to Trump. He's pulling.
Speaker 1: Trump's getting about forty of vote in the primary right now.
Speaker 1: This Santus is hanging in there in the mid to
Speaker 1: high twenties in Florida where the Trump voters know both
Speaker 1: of them to Santis beats Trump. So it's just it's
Speaker 1: like a bad X ray. Oh, like, you know, you've
Speaker 1: got some bad Organs here. Now, does that mean Trump
Speaker 1: won't be the nominee. No, He's still formidable. But it's
Speaker 1: an interesting trend and there are others who will try
Speaker 1: to fill that void depending on how weak they think
Speaker 1: Trump is in six months. So stay tuned. Well, you
Speaker 1: know there's cruise of always try to run. Rubio always
Speaker 1: wants to run. You've got Josh Holly who kind of
Speaker 1: wants to be a new Trump. You've got Tom Cotton,
Speaker 1: Senator from Margaret They're both Arkansas, who's a slightly smarter
Speaker 1: version of Josh Holly. You've got Larry Hogan will be
Speaker 1: the great hero of the sensible wing of the party.
Speaker 1: I'm all form he'll get slaughtered. Well, I was gonna
Speaker 1: say he's he's he's very different than the other other
Speaker 1: people you mentioned. Yeah, he could upset New Hampshire and
Speaker 1: then get crushed. Um. You know. Unfortunately, you've got Adam
Speaker 1: Kinsinger I think may try to make a run at it.
Speaker 1: Mary Cheney may run. Excuse me, Liz Janey. Mary's no
Speaker 1: friend of mine, and so I always canfuse them. Uh,
Speaker 1: Liz may run just to drive Trump crazy at debates,
Speaker 1: but electorally, she won't have the votes in the primary.
Speaker 1: You might see it Dan Crenshaw the House, or somebody
Speaker 1: who's kind of unknown now but has some rocket fuel
Speaker 1: in them if they were paid attention to. So if
Speaker 1: Trump has seen this week, there will be no shortage.
Speaker 1: On the other hand, there will be tremendous pressure unified
Speaker 1: among one because in the plurality model like we had
Speaker 1: in the sixteen Trump can keep going if Trump decides
Speaker 1: to run, which he may not. And I would add
Speaker 1: two others. NICKI Haley and Tim Scott um who would
Speaker 1: be interesting because they're you know, they're not white guys
Speaker 1: and very smart, very ambitious, etcetera. Um, I think, as
Speaker 1: Mike just said, the challenge for the non Trump candidate is,
Speaker 1: even if he deteriorates to thirty five or um in
Speaker 1: the winner take all Republican primary world, that's how he
Speaker 1: won in sixteen without getting majority support in the party.
Speaker 1: That is easily how he could win again in twenty
Speaker 1: four and so um, you would need a unified, consolidated opposition.
Speaker 1: I agree, there's one wrinkle. I don't think Trump could
Speaker 1: take a defeat early like he could back then. And
Speaker 1: we'll see. But I think he's got more of a
Speaker 1: glass john now. Because yes, we're publican primary voters and Republicans.
Speaker 1: What do you think of Trump? Love? Should we nominate
Speaker 1: him again? Half walk away? No time for somebody new.
Speaker 1: That's the real purality in the party. So if if
Speaker 1: Trump gets caught and actually bleeds, I think it could
Speaker 1: fold inside itself pretty quickly. But a lot of ifs,
Speaker 1: you know, we'll see, he might be running from you know,
Speaker 1: being confined to a qualm set hut on an air
Speaker 1: base somewhere serving out a sentence. So, you know, a
Speaker 1: lot a lot of unknowns in the Republican world right now.
Speaker 1: And if Joe Biden doesn't run, and I know the
Speaker 1: conventional wisdom is he will right now, who will be
Speaker 1: the Democratic nominee? I mean, Kamala doesn't seem to enjoy
Speaker 1: much popularity and has kind of been in the witness
Speaker 1: protection program in some ways. And I mean, so who
Speaker 1: is this Who is the the person in the Democratic
Speaker 1: Party who is going to rise to the occasion. I
Speaker 1: don't know, but watch Whipner. I think that Joe Biden
Speaker 1: is going to run. But if he doesn't run, just
Speaker 1: I think it's really incumbent upon the party to have
Speaker 1: a big, vibrant primary and not just try to hand
Speaker 1: off the nomination of someone and look how at work
Speaker 1: for us. I think we did end up with the
Speaker 1: strongest candidate to run against Donald Trump and Joe Biden,
Speaker 1: And going forward, I think we should try to aim
Speaker 1: for that as a party and real quickly if the
Speaker 1: House and Senate both go Republican, you know, are they
Speaker 1: going to try to impeach Joe Biden? And for what
Speaker 1: I mean, I think the House guys will, well, they're
Speaker 1: played to their internal politics and there will be noise
Speaker 1: about Impeachingums. Ridiculous. What well, it's good for Biden. That's
Speaker 1: the one thing I could unify the party around. What
Speaker 1: are they and for being a Democrat? You know, all
Speaker 1: the sanity. We're a reality show here. You know, why
Speaker 1: did why did you know? Uh, Tawny throw the chair
Speaker 1: at Belinda because she was mad she wasn't invited to
Speaker 1: the cocktail party. I mean we've we've turned it into that,
Speaker 1: you know, um and watch watch Real Housewives. No, I hate.
Speaker 1: I want Andy Cohen to be brought up on charges
Speaker 1: for cultural crimes for what that world has created. My wife,
Speaker 1: of course watching it, and I hear coming down the hallway,
Speaker 1: my daughters watch it, and I'm like, girls, you've got
Speaker 1: really good education. Why are you watching this? Oh? Everybody
Speaker 1: watches it. But Trump is a reality star, that's all
Speaker 1: he is. I want to hear more about Tonny and Belinda.
Speaker 1: I know. Meanwhile, the Chinese are graduating five thousand engineers
Speaker 1: a year and we're screwing around with who through a
Speaker 1: cupcake at who won the party bus? But so, so,
Speaker 1: what are your predictions if the Republicans win when both Houses.
Speaker 1: Everything shuts down except for executive orders. The Democratic Party
Speaker 1: starts to eat poor Joe Biden for electoral failure. The
Speaker 1: Republicans get very little done and overplay their hand and
Speaker 1: make some mistakes, though the map for them in the
Speaker 1: center is pretty damn good in and both parties have
Speaker 1: a big, crazy open primary that will erupt all through
Speaker 1: particularly the the second third quarter of and people on
Speaker 1: the left will be looking up real estate in Portugal
Speaker 1: and Australia. That's why the margin in the House is
Speaker 1: so important. I think one of the fundamental mistakes of
Speaker 1: this election is a lot of Democratic donors thought, oh,
Speaker 1: the House is lost, so I'm not gonna send money.
Speaker 1: You know what, Losing the House by five or ten
Speaker 1: seats is recoverable in two years. Losing it by twenty
Speaker 1: five or thirty much much more difficult. I agree. The
Speaker 1: Republicans absolutely will overplay their hand because McCarthy is a
Speaker 1: prisoner of the extremists in his own party. He's shown
Speaker 1: no capacity to stand up to them, and he's cozy
Speaker 1: enough to Marjorie Taylor Green, Oh to all of them.
Speaker 1: He can't we got beat. You know, the brave tan
Speaker 1: who voted for impeachment are all gone except for one.
Speaker 1: So the Republican casually isn't there. You got the damn
Speaker 1: d trip going in and murdering UH Michigan, Um Peter Meyer,
Speaker 1: who is a complete patriot and hero because they're doing
Speaker 1: anything to win a primary. Now they may get a
Speaker 1: nut in that district. So anyway, it it's gonna be
Speaker 1: grim in the Republican House conference. There's still saying people
Speaker 1: on the Sentate side, and Liz will let you have
Speaker 1: the last word. Um. Look, I agree with both what
Speaker 1: Mike and Brian said, and if I were a Republican
Speaker 1: I really would fear. Um the prospect of overreach and
Speaker 1: the fact that they are already talking about impeached and
Speaker 1: Joe Biden for nothing, frankly, other than being a Democrat
Speaker 1: should be a real warning sign to them. So my
Speaker 1: prediction is that it is going to be an ugly
Speaker 1: couple of years, but um that there probably will be
Speaker 1: some electoral backlash for them if they overplay their hands.
Speaker 1: All right, I'm gonna go look for some tims. Always
Speaker 1: great to talk to you all. Thank you so much
Speaker 1: for being so generous with your time. Liz, Brian and
Speaker 1: Mike and Uh let's stay in touch. Thanks. Thanks Yea.
Speaker 1: Next Question with Katie Kurik is the production of My
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