WEBVTT - The Midterms are coming! Three political strategists break it all down 0:00:00.200 --> 0:00:03.440 Hi everyone, I'm Katie Curic and this is next Question. 0:00:04.840 --> 0:00:08.119 We're only a few weeks out from the mid terms 0:00:08.240 --> 0:00:11.239 and there is a lot to unpack. It seems like 0:00:11.280 --> 0:00:15.200 there's a new story every day about some race or another. 0:00:15.720 --> 0:00:19.239 So I've brought on some of my favorite political experts 0:00:19.320 --> 0:00:22.639 to help us all better understand what's at stake, what 0:00:22.720 --> 0:00:25.480 are the races to watch, and what this all means 0:00:25.560 --> 0:00:30.319 for My guest today are media and political strategists and 0:00:30.440 --> 0:00:34.080 my former podcasting co host, Brian Goldsmith. I tried to 0:00:34.080 --> 0:00:36.479 get Katie to think about running for office. I I 0:00:36.600 --> 0:00:40.040 seriously did. She won't. She won't consider it, sadly for me, 0:00:40.600 --> 0:00:43.280 as well as Liz Smith, a twenty year veteran of 0:00:43.320 --> 0:00:49.760 Democratic political campaigns from Barack Obama to Peep Buddha j Edge. 0:00:50.040 --> 0:00:53.440 She also has a new memoir out called Any Given Tuesday, 0:00:53.640 --> 0:00:57.440 a Political Love Story, and she has that same feral 0:00:57.720 --> 0:01:02.800 magnetism tour that Donald Trump does. And Republican political consultant 0:01:02.840 --> 0:01:06.399 and host along with David axel Rod of the political 0:01:06.480 --> 0:01:11.440 podcast Hacks on Tap Mike Murphy, Oh, I've been freaked 0:01:11.520 --> 0:01:14.800 up for a decade about American politics. Let's dive in 0:01:16.800 --> 0:01:20.520 Hello to my three amigoes. So great to see you all, 0:01:20.560 --> 0:01:24.760 and I'm very excited to unpack these upcoming mid terms, 0:01:24.880 --> 0:01:30.560 which I'm really getting pitted out about it, lovely. I 0:01:30.640 --> 0:01:33.440 just wanted to paint that picture for all our listeners. 0:01:33.920 --> 0:01:36.880 I mean, listen, it's felt like a bit of a 0:01:37.000 --> 0:01:42.039 roller coaster in terms of what we might expect. And 0:01:42.400 --> 0:01:45.000 I mean, I have my sort of point of view, 0:01:45.080 --> 0:01:47.760 but I've got you three, So who cares what I think? 0:01:48.200 --> 0:01:50.760 What do you think is going to happen? Or give 0:01:50.840 --> 0:01:54.200 us sort of the state of play right now, knowing 0:01:54.360 --> 0:01:58.280 full well that things could change on a dime. Mike, 0:01:58.720 --> 0:02:01.960 what do you see happening? Well, you know, I'm I've 0:02:02.000 --> 0:02:04.160 got the boring answer, which is I think it's gonna 0:02:04.160 --> 0:02:07.160 be a typical mid term. You know, generally since World 0:02:07.160 --> 0:02:10.720 War Two, the average has been the president's party loses 0:02:10.760 --> 0:02:14.000 about twenties six seats. So there's been three instances, you know, 0:02:14.400 --> 0:02:17.320 where that hasn't happened. So the big question is is 0:02:17.360 --> 0:02:20.400 it different this time? Well, you take the mid term problems, 0:02:20.480 --> 0:02:23.880 you add inflation on it, gas prices, all that sort 0:02:23.919 --> 0:02:26.280 of stuff, and that would probably make it worse for 0:02:26.320 --> 0:02:30.040 the Democrats. But there are some different things going on. 0:02:30.200 --> 0:02:33.960 There's row which has energized some young voters who normally 0:02:34.040 --> 0:02:35.800 don't vote in the off here that could be a 0:02:35.800 --> 0:02:37.679 thumb on the scale, and I would say some old 0:02:37.760 --> 0:02:42.360 voters tom exactly. But but the turnout problem is young voters. 0:02:42.720 --> 0:02:45.280 Democrats have a big problem in the off You're getting 0:02:45.280 --> 0:02:47.440 their young voters to show up. Maybe this will do it. 0:02:47.520 --> 0:02:50.960 There's some anecdotal evidence. We do at the University of 0:02:51.080 --> 0:02:54.360 Southern California Center for Plaical Future, I'm involved. We do 0:02:54.400 --> 0:02:56.640 a voter registration thing and this year is the biggest 0:02:56.639 --> 0:02:59.920 we've ever had by far. Is exploding, which is a typic. 0:03:00.320 --> 0:03:03.239 So you know, there's that. And the Republicans have nominated 0:03:03.280 --> 0:03:06.280 my beloved party that I'm hanging onto by a thread, 0:03:07.200 --> 0:03:10.919 as we've nominated some real cinder blocks. Well, I'm a conservative, 0:03:11.000 --> 0:03:13.480 and problem is I'm on policy. I'm right as center, 0:03:13.600 --> 0:03:16.119 So I can't, you know, get out the Carl Mark's 0:03:16.120 --> 0:03:19.520 heart tattoo and join the Democrats. I've been voting for 0:03:19.560 --> 0:03:22.000 some lately, I have to admit, because we have some 0:03:22.080 --> 0:03:24.840 unfit people running. But in a way of election, a 0:03:24.919 --> 0:03:28.280 cinder block can get washed twenty feet so they could 0:03:28.280 --> 0:03:31.920 win the Senate is the question. Yeah, Liz, what do 0:03:31.960 --> 0:03:36.000 you see? So I agree with both you and with Mike. 0:03:36.240 --> 0:03:40.160 It has been a complete roller coaster, starting with the 0:03:40.520 --> 0:03:45.240 messy withdrawal from Afghanistan, when we saw Biden somers tank 0:03:45.440 --> 0:03:48.280 and as a result, you know, in correlation with that, 0:03:48.600 --> 0:03:52.800 Democrats fortunes across the country tank. Then the Job's decision 0:03:53.040 --> 0:03:56.480 coming out, and now I agree with Mike that it 0:03:56.560 --> 0:03:58.920 is reverting to sort of a normal midterm. But I'm 0:03:58.920 --> 0:04:01.160 gonna add one more use of bad news and there 0:04:01.160 --> 0:04:04.920 for Democrats, which is something that I've heard from people 0:04:04.920 --> 0:04:07.480 on battleground races across the country, which is the things 0:04:07.520 --> 0:04:10.360 that keep them up at night are one, gas prices 0:04:10.440 --> 0:04:13.560 and to a COVID search. And I don't want to 0:04:14.440 --> 0:04:18.000 universalize my own experience too much, but I just personally 0:04:18.080 --> 0:04:22.360 just tested positive for COVID an hour ago. Oh gosh, 0:04:22.400 --> 0:04:25.719 this just endless justin I'm gonna put my mask on 0:04:25.920 --> 0:04:29.239 right here, and I gotta tell you, I'm hearing um 0:04:29.240 --> 0:04:31.560 from doctors and people across the country, like I see 0:04:31.600 --> 0:04:35.040 us just filling up. And I think if you add inflation, 0:04:35.200 --> 0:04:40.080 gas prices, COVID surging onto everything that it is. You know, 0:04:40.200 --> 0:04:43.080 it's looking like a typical midterms, which is bad news 0:04:43.120 --> 0:04:46.200 for Democrats. Yeah, you know, I feel like the timing 0:04:46.279 --> 0:04:49.120 on these economic issues, Brian could not be worse with 0:04:49.160 --> 0:04:51.279 the Democrats. I even read a piece this morning I 0:04:51.320 --> 0:04:55.040 forget where because I read so much about inflation numbers 0:04:55.080 --> 0:04:58.880 sort of in just a few months kind of leveling off, 0:04:58.920 --> 0:05:02.080 but not in time for the mid terms. So do 0:05:02.160 --> 0:05:05.240 you agree with Liz that we've got gas prices, inflation, 0:05:05.320 --> 0:05:08.600 and potentially a COVID surge and that's going to really 0:05:08.680 --> 0:05:13.560 serve to bury the Democrats. Yeah, I'm pretty pessimistic. I'm 0:05:13.600 --> 0:05:16.520 I'm a Democrat now, I'm no longer a journalist covering 0:05:16.560 --> 0:05:20.640 this stuff. And you know, in in life as in politics, 0:05:20.720 --> 0:05:24.440 timing is everything. And the Democrats were in a pretty 0:05:24.440 --> 0:05:27.880 good position to win the election that didn't happen in 0:05:27.920 --> 0:05:31.560 early September. Um, they're in a pretty crappy position for 0:05:31.600 --> 0:05:35.239 the election that is actually happening. Um in a few weeks. 0:05:35.800 --> 0:05:39.040 You have gas prices going up again, you have a 0:05:39.080 --> 0:05:42.920 failure of the party to drive an effective economic contrast, 0:05:43.040 --> 0:05:45.960 and that and not row is the number one issue. 0:05:46.279 --> 0:05:49.559 Two thirds of Americans think the economy is getting worse. 0:05:49.640 --> 0:05:52.600 Three quarters think that we're on the wrong track. This 0:05:52.680 --> 0:05:56.160 is a recipe for, as Mike said, a typical mid 0:05:56.240 --> 0:05:59.960 term year with you know, substantial losses for the Democrats. 0:06:00.440 --> 0:06:04.200 Why haven't the Democrats lis been able to make a 0:06:04.279 --> 0:06:08.599 compelling argument about the economy. It seems that they have 0:06:08.800 --> 0:06:13.960 almost abdicated this whole economic issue. I know traditionally voters 0:06:14.000 --> 0:06:17.640 inc Republicans do a better job handling the economy, but 0:06:17.720 --> 0:06:21.680 it seems like the Democrats are coming up slightly empty 0:06:21.760 --> 0:06:24.440 handed to me and correct me if I'm wrong. So 0:06:24.680 --> 0:06:27.039 I look, I agree with that. I think it's the 0:06:27.080 --> 0:06:30.159 results of a couple of things. And one is that 0:06:30.480 --> 0:06:33.360 a lot of these economic issues, whether it's either whether 0:06:33.400 --> 0:06:37.000 it's inflation or gas prices, it's largely out of you know, 0:06:37.080 --> 0:06:41.640 any one person, anyone political parties control. So there is 0:06:41.680 --> 0:06:45.720 sort of you know, hesitance to about how to communicate 0:06:45.720 --> 0:06:48.000 about that because it is out of people's control. And 0:06:48.360 --> 0:06:51.159 we know that, um, one day gas prices can be 0:06:51.200 --> 0:06:53.800 low and the next day Saudi Arabia can make an 0:06:53.839 --> 0:06:57.520 announcement right before the midterms that can um cause gas 0:06:57.520 --> 0:07:02.080 prices to spike again. The seconding is. Look, a lot 0:07:02.120 --> 0:07:04.240 of Democrats did sort of put all their eggs in 0:07:04.279 --> 0:07:08.080 the Row basket, and um, when the Dobs decision came out, 0:07:08.320 --> 0:07:11.960 we really saw a surge of enthusiasm there. And I 0:07:12.080 --> 0:07:14.920 still think ROW is gonna be really important, but it 0:07:14.960 --> 0:07:17.560 does make me a little bit nervous, whether I'm in 0:07:17.600 --> 0:07:20.160 New York or I was in Michigan last weekend, and 0:07:20.200 --> 0:07:23.640 I look at all the Democrats ads, and I gotta say, 0:07:24.080 --> 0:07:27.160 of them are about ROW, and I just I have 0:07:27.280 --> 0:07:30.000 heard less and less about it from voters, from friends 0:07:30.040 --> 0:07:33.200 who are outside of politics, and more about inflation and 0:07:33.200 --> 0:07:36.040 gas prices. And you know, I personally would like to 0:07:36.080 --> 0:07:38.800 see more Democrats going out there and saying we feel 0:07:38.800 --> 0:07:41.680 your pain. We haven't gotten everything right, but we are 0:07:41.800 --> 0:07:44.640 trying to lower your costs. We did the Inflation Reduction Act, 0:07:44.680 --> 0:07:47.480 which is gonna allow Medicare to negotiate for lower gas prices, 0:07:47.520 --> 0:07:50.720 cap the price of insulin. We voted to import b 0:07:50.920 --> 0:07:53.920 BE formula, which Republicans opposed. We vote to do this that, 0:07:54.360 --> 0:07:56.440 and to say at least we are trying, whereas the 0:07:56.440 --> 0:07:58.800 Republicans are trying to make your life miserable and hope 0:07:58.800 --> 0:08:01.360 that it helps them win, but we have heard less 0:08:01.400 --> 0:08:04.120 of that messaging. And part of the reason for that 0:08:04.200 --> 0:08:06.560 is because it's more remote. Drug prices aren't going to 0:08:06.600 --> 0:08:09.800 get lower tomorrow. It's gonna happen after the election. So 0:08:10.200 --> 0:08:14.160 the immediate economic concerns and voters have are harder for 0:08:14.240 --> 0:08:17.800 Democrats to address. Yeah, I think the problem is inflation 0:08:17.920 --> 0:08:20.840 is a politician killer because it breaks through all the 0:08:20.920 --> 0:08:23.760 talk and the three dimensional chess. You go to the 0:08:23.760 --> 0:08:26.480 grocery store and like you look at like a year ago, 0:08:26.640 --> 0:08:29.040 I was buying the same stuff for a lot less. 0:08:29.080 --> 0:08:31.680 So every week you get kicked there. Then you get 0:08:31.760 --> 0:08:35.199 kicked at the gas pump, and so those two things 0:08:35.280 --> 0:08:38.200 breakthrough all that. I've got a nine point plan or 0:08:38.240 --> 0:08:40.640 you know, and it's like, you know what, Trump might 0:08:40.679 --> 0:08:43.000 have been crazy, but when he was in I wasn't 0:08:43.000 --> 0:08:46.240 getting slaughtered like this. And older people are looking at 0:08:46.240 --> 0:08:49.040 their F one case and the stock market bouncing around, 0:08:49.440 --> 0:08:52.720 so it's nothing but pain and they're doing what vote. 0:08:52.720 --> 0:08:54.840 You know, everybody talks about a blue wave, it's not 0:08:54.920 --> 0:08:57.400 really it's the mid term wave. It can change color. 0:08:57.920 --> 0:09:01.560 It's tell the boss I'm unhappy, and Americans love doing that. 0:09:01.640 --> 0:09:04.560 We love changing the channel we love playing the pushing 0:09:04.600 --> 0:09:07.400 the eject button. And that's what's coming. And the only 0:09:07.480 --> 0:09:10.240 question is in a few of these close Senate races 0:09:10.280 --> 0:09:13.520 that the Republicans should be running away with, will the 0:09:13.640 --> 0:09:18.000 Republican candidates are under performing allow a Democrat to win 0:09:18.120 --> 0:09:20.320 in a year when they have no business winning. The 0:09:20.360 --> 0:09:22.400 House is gone? You know, I think that's over with, 0:09:22.440 --> 0:09:24.960 it's gone. Well. I want to talk about that in 0:09:24.960 --> 0:09:28.120 the role Marjorie Taylor Green may have if in fact 0:09:28.400 --> 0:09:32.800 a Republican majority is in the House. But first, um, 0:09:32.840 --> 0:09:36.439 you know, James Carville said, Republicans are hoping that women 0:09:36.480 --> 0:09:40.040 have a short attention span. We saw a really remarkable 0:09:40.080 --> 0:09:43.040 thing happen in Kansas in early August when it came 0:09:43.080 --> 0:09:47.080 to codifying the constitution right for getting rid of the 0:09:47.320 --> 0:09:51.920 protection for choice in Kansas, pretty ruby red state, right, 0:09:52.320 --> 0:09:57.440 So women were incredibly organized. The turnout was enormous. Do 0:09:58.320 --> 0:10:01.000 American women have a short attend and span? I mean, 0:10:01.160 --> 0:10:03.840 I guess that's the question. Or does the economy and 0:10:03.840 --> 0:10:08.040 those prices at the grocery during gas station overwhelmed the 0:10:08.120 --> 0:10:10.960 desire for reproductive rights in this country? What say you, 0:10:11.000 --> 0:10:16.200 Brian Goldsmith? You know, a friend of mine said, the 0:10:16.240 --> 0:10:19.080 Democrats were hoping for Revember and it might have just 0:10:19.160 --> 0:10:23.360 been raugust, and you know, that's that's a problem. I 0:10:23.400 --> 0:10:27.560 mean in Kansas, people were just voting up or down 0:10:27.679 --> 0:10:30.560 on that one issue, and that is fundamentally different than 0:10:30.640 --> 0:10:32.520 voting for a candidate for the Senate, where you've got 0:10:32.520 --> 0:10:36.000 a whole range of issues on the ballot um, including 0:10:36.440 --> 0:10:39.160 the economy and the cost of living and this stuff 0:10:39.200 --> 0:10:41.960 that just kind of punches you in the face every 0:10:42.000 --> 0:10:45.000 single day. People aren't out there trying, um, you know, 0:10:45.600 --> 0:10:48.520 most people to get an abortion every single day, but 0:10:48.559 --> 0:10:51.880 they are shopping for gas and groceries and and so 0:10:52.440 --> 0:10:56.200 you know, to Mike's point, the economy is not something 0:10:56.240 --> 0:10:58.280 that you can change between now in the election, but 0:10:58.360 --> 0:11:00.480 that doesn't mean that there isn't any thing you can 0:11:00.520 --> 0:11:02.800 do if you're a Democrat. And I worry our party 0:11:02.800 --> 0:11:06.679 has failed to learn the lessons of President Obama's reelection 0:11:06.760 --> 0:11:10.560 in twelve, which Liz played an integral role in where 0:11:10.679 --> 0:11:14.960 you had, uh, you know, mediocre to bad economy that 0:11:15.040 --> 0:11:18.760 people were feeling um and Obama was in charge, but 0:11:18.880 --> 0:11:22.360 he was able to drive a contrast about who's fighting 0:11:22.400 --> 0:11:25.640 to make the economy work for people like me, and 0:11:25.640 --> 0:11:29.720 and that's the contrast that I don't see out there. Yeah, 0:11:29.840 --> 0:11:31.880 and just to add to that, as the only woman 0:11:31.960 --> 0:11:34.560 besides the U Katie on the call, and I would say, yes, 0:11:34.640 --> 0:11:38.200 we um, I improved positive that women can have short 0:11:38.240 --> 0:11:43.440 attention spans, UM, but women can also be multitaskers. And 0:11:43.800 --> 0:11:49.000 women are also responsible for balancing their families checkbooks, for 0:11:49.200 --> 0:11:52.439 you know, filling up their gas tanks, for shopping for groceries. 0:11:52.920 --> 0:11:55.839 And these are UM things that they're seeing every day 0:11:55.880 --> 0:11:58.679 as well. So while you would think, okay, a fundamental 0:11:58.800 --> 0:12:01.600 right is on the line, that's number one thing, it 0:12:01.760 --> 0:12:04.880 is really hard to keep the focus on ROW when 0:12:04.920 --> 0:12:07.280 I think, as Mike said, you know, gas prices and 0:12:07.320 --> 0:12:10.120 the price of milk and whatever it is is hitting 0:12:10.120 --> 0:12:14.000 in the face UM every day. And so in places, 0:12:14.040 --> 0:12:17.400 you know, to Brian's point, um, like Kansas, where that's 0:12:17.400 --> 0:12:20.640 the thing on the ballot. In places like Michigan where 0:12:20.679 --> 0:12:23.480 you're gonna have that on the ballot, it ROW might 0:12:23.520 --> 0:12:27.000 be more of a factor because they have um an 0:12:27.040 --> 0:12:32.280 initiative they're about whether to overturn a complete ban on abortion. 0:12:32.640 --> 0:12:34.720 So there it's on the ballot and it's literally in 0:12:34.720 --> 0:12:36.839 your face. But a lot of other states, like if 0:12:36.880 --> 0:12:39.960 you live in New York, you know that our state 0:12:40.040 --> 0:12:43.040 law is very strong and protecting a woman's right to choose. 0:12:43.360 --> 0:12:47.240 There are seven battleground house races here that then row 0:12:47.360 --> 0:12:49.800 is probably gonna take a back seat. If you live 0:12:49.800 --> 0:12:53.080 in Arizona, row and abortion have never been in the 0:12:53.120 --> 0:12:56.840 top five issues issues for voters. Yeah, but what about 0:12:56.880 --> 0:13:00.480 this national abortion band that all the republic kids are 0:13:00.480 --> 0:13:04.200 talking about. To me, that really increases the urgency of 0:13:04.240 --> 0:13:07.760 this issue a little more than normal, does it? Not? Look? 0:13:07.840 --> 0:13:09.800 I sort of agree, But I also think we have 0:13:09.840 --> 0:13:12.400 to realize that we deal with the electorate as it is, 0:13:12.520 --> 0:13:14.960 not as it should be. And I agree, I think 0:13:14.960 --> 0:13:17.800 that these things should matter more. But it goes to 0:13:17.840 --> 0:13:20.200 show you that with a lot of voters, the things 0:13:20.200 --> 0:13:21.920 that matter most are the things that are right in 0:13:21.920 --> 0:13:24.040 front of their face. They don't think in terms of 0:13:24.080 --> 0:13:26.440 the long term, right right, And I think that's true 0:13:26.440 --> 0:13:29.440 of everything might go ahead. Yeah, there's also what's the 0:13:29.480 --> 0:13:33.560 most invisible group in American pop culture, pro life women. 0:13:34.160 --> 0:13:36.480 One out of six voters is a pro life female, 0:13:36.800 --> 0:13:39.240 the most pro choice group in America. By the way, 0:13:39.520 --> 0:13:41.400 You know, we always say women. No, it's young men 0:13:42.000 --> 0:13:43.920 who also don't vote in the off Your election is 0:13:43.960 --> 0:13:46.440 a real question about row is well, young men who 0:13:46.440 --> 0:13:49.959 tell democratic and are over very pro choice in most 0:13:50.000 --> 0:13:53.600 places show up. You know what's happened is or and 0:13:53.600 --> 0:13:55.880 and and Liz is right. There are plenty of states 0:13:55.880 --> 0:13:58.400 where it's a little bit settled. The Nevada center race, 0:13:58.440 --> 0:14:00.920 which doesn't get a lot of attention because decide the Senate. 0:14:01.440 --> 0:14:05.000 They've got a constitutional prohibition there. So it's not killing 0:14:05.000 --> 0:14:08.360 Adam Laxalt the way the Democratic incumbent thought in a 0:14:08.440 --> 0:14:10.360 very pro choice state, I think he's gonna beat her 0:14:10.400 --> 0:14:14.679 and pick up that seat. So between gas and groceries 0:14:15.520 --> 0:14:19.000 and the fact that it's not as overwhelmingly an eight 0:14:19.160 --> 0:14:23.240 twenty issue among the population, and in those swing seats, 0:14:23.400 --> 0:14:26.280 it's more pro choice than pro life, but it's not 0:14:26.320 --> 0:14:28.120 the hammer. In some places, it's not seen as a 0:14:28.160 --> 0:14:31.600 top issue. The New New York Times poll of people 0:14:31.600 --> 0:14:34.680 say the economy, only eight percent say abortion rights. Well, 0:14:34.720 --> 0:14:37.600 what about this national band, Brian? Is that looming in 0:14:37.640 --> 0:14:40.040 the minds of voters? You think in some ways, if 0:14:40.080 --> 0:14:43.880 the you know, Republicans take the Senate, they're gonna start 0:14:44.160 --> 0:14:48.120 working on that, I think pretty prompto. Right, I'm not sure. 0:14:48.280 --> 0:14:51.520 I didn't see a lot of enthusiasm from Mitch McConnell 0:14:51.720 --> 0:14:54.600 for a national abortion band. He may be kind of 0:14:54.600 --> 0:14:57.480 forced into it by a majority of his caucus, just 0:14:57.520 --> 0:14:59.560 as he's been forced into a whole bunch of stuff 0:14:59.760 --> 0:15:04.560 that he hasn't necessarily personally wanted to do. But you know, 0:15:04.880 --> 0:15:07.600 I'm not sure that that's going to be the election driver. 0:15:07.800 --> 0:15:11.640 I mean, the outcome of elections is as much about 0:15:11.800 --> 0:15:16.240 what is the issue territory you're fighting on as what 0:15:16.400 --> 0:15:20.480 each side says. And if we close this election on 0:15:20.760 --> 0:15:27.240 inflation and crime and perceptions about the direction of the economy, 0:15:27.280 --> 0:15:30.920 a lot of very flawed Republican candidates are going to 0:15:31.040 --> 0:15:33.920 get in because they have the edge on those issues. Well, 0:15:34.000 --> 0:15:36.680 let's talk about that. Let's talk about the Trump factor 0:15:36.840 --> 0:15:41.040 and the Biden factor. How effective has Trump been in 0:15:41.200 --> 0:15:44.680 terms of his endorsements of various candidates, Mike, I mean, 0:15:45.040 --> 0:15:48.160 he is still the standard bearer of the Republican Party. 0:15:48.800 --> 0:15:52.880 Is he helping hurting? Is it a wash? Well, in 0:15:53.040 --> 0:15:56.200 most primaries he helps a lot. But once you get 0:15:56.280 --> 0:15:58.720 him out of the primary world, you know, then then 0:15:58.760 --> 0:16:00.920 he's on a planet where he can barely breathe, and 0:16:01.040 --> 0:16:05.280 any swing general election, he's a problem, you know, where 0:16:05.320 --> 0:16:08.280 both parties are competitive, and those suburban congressional stage is 0:16:08.320 --> 0:16:10.440 a problem. You know, you don't see all these candidates 0:16:10.520 --> 0:16:12.480 running to him. Now, we have a few candidates who 0:16:12.520 --> 0:16:15.480 win a primary and are clueless and are running the 0:16:15.520 --> 0:16:17.800 general election like a Republican primary. So there are a 0:16:17.800 --> 0:16:20.800 few places, even in this wave where a Democrat who 0:16:20.800 --> 0:16:23.680 auto loses seat may win on that. But but Trump 0:16:23.760 --> 0:16:25.480 is an anchor around the neck of the party in 0:16:25.480 --> 0:16:27.480 a general election. The problem is he is a need 0:16:27.520 --> 0:16:29.720 to be in the center of everything. So he's kind 0:16:29.720 --> 0:16:32.480 of the unwanted guest who shows up and you know, 0:16:32.600 --> 0:16:35.360 what do you do? Speaking of the anchor, let's talk 0:16:35.400 --> 0:16:39.000 about the anchor lady running for governor in the state 0:16:39.000 --> 0:16:42.200 of Arizona, Carry Lake, who is sort of the new 0:16:42.280 --> 0:16:44.600 face of Trump is hum And I don't know if 0:16:44.600 --> 0:16:47.960 you all watched Dana Bash interview her on on State 0:16:48.000 --> 0:16:50.800 of the Union on Sunday. I thought Danna did a real, 0:16:51.520 --> 0:16:54.760 really incredible job. She kept calling her Dana, I think 0:16:54.840 --> 0:16:56.640 to get under her skin. I don't know if you 0:16:56.800 --> 0:17:00.200 noticed that. And she kind of interchanged Dana and Dana. Dana, 0:17:00.200 --> 0:17:02.040 I'm gonna have to disagree with you on the figure 0:17:02.080 --> 0:17:05.040 you just put out. The real issue, Dana is that 0:17:05.119 --> 0:17:08.679 the people don't trust. The question is are you undermining 0:17:08.800 --> 0:17:16.320 faith and elections by saying that election was stolen when 0:17:16.359 --> 0:17:21.719 there's absolutely no evidence to support that. Dana, You know 0:17:22.040 --> 0:17:26.879 she is really embracing Trump and vice versa. So what 0:17:27.000 --> 0:17:30.200 do you see going on there? Well? I think that, um, 0:17:30.359 --> 0:17:34.120 she's been a really fascinating candidate because unlike a lot 0:17:34.200 --> 0:17:37.240 of the other sort of Trump indoors senate candidates this 0:17:37.320 --> 0:17:41.560 cycle who run away from the press, don't really communicate 0:17:41.600 --> 0:17:44.440 with the public, sort of hide the ball, She's been 0:17:44.560 --> 0:17:48.359 very full frontal in her campaigning, both with voters traveling 0:17:48.400 --> 0:17:51.679 around the state and with local and national media. And 0:17:51.760 --> 0:17:55.720 she has that same feral magnetism to her that Donald 0:17:55.760 --> 0:17:58.480 Trump does, and sort of a knowledge of how to 0:17:58.560 --> 0:18:02.200 work a stage, how to work the media. That's interesting 0:18:02.320 --> 0:18:06.280 feral magnetism. Yeah, but there is something, there is something 0:18:06.320 --> 0:18:08.639 to when you see her work a stage that you 0:18:08.760 --> 0:18:11.600 don't quite have with the Hershel Walker, you don't have 0:18:11.760 --> 0:18:16.160 with a Doug Mastriano or Blake Masters, And it's why 0:18:16.600 --> 0:18:19.080 I think that she will be one of the you know, 0:18:19.119 --> 0:18:23.119 election deniers who slips through on the gubernatorial level. But 0:18:23.200 --> 0:18:26.040 she sort of perfected Trump is m and figured out 0:18:26.359 --> 0:18:30.240 how to take the crazy um and what I view 0:18:30.359 --> 0:18:33.239 is crazy and how to sort of soft sell it 0:18:33.320 --> 0:18:36.320 in these interviews, and certainly with Dana Bash. I mean, 0:18:36.400 --> 0:18:39.240 you saw just how slippery she was. One of the 0:18:39.280 --> 0:18:41.800 problems there, right, is that we don't have the strongest 0:18:41.840 --> 0:18:44.080 of Democratic candidates, sir, I'll just put it that way. 0:18:44.560 --> 0:18:48.800 And she refuses to um debate Carrie Lake, which I think, 0:18:48.960 --> 0:18:52.240 why is she doing that? Her her opponent, and that's 0:18:52.280 --> 0:18:55.840 the Secretary state, right, Lady Hobbs. Yeah, she's a train 0:18:55.840 --> 0:18:58.480 wreck of a candidate. That's the problem. They've They've got 0:18:58.480 --> 0:19:01.240 a slow pony, a train wreck of a candidate. She's 0:19:01.359 --> 0:19:04.000 really turned out to be a dud. And that's given 0:19:04.040 --> 0:19:05.920 the race to carry Lake in a state that is 0:19:06.040 --> 0:19:10.000 very wave affected. Yeah, and if you've been a major 0:19:10.119 --> 0:19:14.359 market local TV news anchor for twenty years, that is 0:19:14.400 --> 0:19:18.760 pretty darn good preparation for running for office and being 0:19:19.320 --> 0:19:22.800 slick on the receiving end of TV interviews and and 0:19:22.880 --> 0:19:26.320 knowing how to make an appearance that's effective. And you know, 0:19:26.400 --> 0:19:30.520 there's just no comparison in terms of candidate skills her. 0:19:30.720 --> 0:19:34.320 She's a great retail politician, whatever you think. And she 0:19:34.400 --> 0:19:36.800 has the best zoom filter in the business. The interview 0:19:36.840 --> 0:19:40.800 is real hilarious because there's about filters on the camera. 0:19:40.960 --> 0:19:44.720 She stole it. She stole it from Barbara Walters. It's unbelievable. 0:19:44.720 --> 0:19:48.040 You can't see a poor Yeah, is that true? Yes, 0:19:48.160 --> 0:19:50.840 you gotta see it. But I also think, Katie, maybe 0:19:50.840 --> 0:19:54.240 we've found the next chapter for you. Oh oh, I 0:19:54.440 --> 0:19:57.040 I don't think so. I try to get think about 0:19:57.119 --> 0:20:00.520 running for office. I I seriously did she She won't 0:20:00.560 --> 0:20:06.360 consider it. Sadly, my skin is too thin for that. 0:20:07.840 --> 0:20:10.200 When we come back, did you know more than two 0:20:10.320 --> 0:20:13.800 hundred election deniers are running for office up and down 0:20:13.800 --> 0:20:17.840 the ballot. We talk about what that means for our democracy. 0:20:18.200 --> 0:20:31.080 Right after this, can we just talk about a few 0:20:31.080 --> 0:20:35.400 other races where the Trump factor has helped jd vance. 0:20:35.480 --> 0:20:39.520 Obviously wouldn't be getting as much traction as he is, 0:20:39.600 --> 0:20:41.959 and I know he didn't do very well in that debate. 0:20:42.040 --> 0:20:45.320 Tim Ryan kind of ate his lunch, but isn't he 0:20:45.400 --> 0:20:48.560 still favorite? Dwyn in Ohio guys. I would argue it 0:20:48.640 --> 0:20:52.400 slightly differently. If it weren't for Trump, the Republican would 0:20:52.400 --> 0:20:55.080 be running away with a lot of these races. I mean, 0:20:55.200 --> 0:20:58.280 David McCormick in Pennsylvania I think would be up five 0:20:58.400 --> 0:21:03.199 or ten over Betterman. It's it's because Trump pushed a 0:21:03.200 --> 0:21:06.919 lot of very flawed Republican candidates, you know, to the 0:21:07.000 --> 0:21:10.240 nomination that a lot of these races that, as Mike says, 0:21:10.240 --> 0:21:15.119 are very way susceptible, are actually competitive, helpful in the primary, 0:21:15.200 --> 0:21:20.199 hurtful in the general. Exactly. It totally true. Vance is 0:21:20.240 --> 0:21:24.600 a terrible candidate. Ryan is running the best Democratic swing 0:21:24.680 --> 0:21:27.120 state campaign in the country for a Democrat. Now he's 0:21:27.119 --> 0:21:30.280 breaking all the d n C rules and he's running 0:21:30.280 --> 0:21:33.119 as kind of a lunch pail, a little more culturally conservative. 0:21:33.200 --> 0:21:36.360 There's a lot of kind of keeping his distance from Biden, 0:21:36.560 --> 0:21:40.639 right and saying we need we don't need an ass kisser, 0:21:40.680 --> 0:21:43.160 we need an ass kicker, which was a pretty good line. 0:21:43.160 --> 0:21:48.280 You gotta admit that said, this is an election where 0:21:48.400 --> 0:21:50.720 boxing hammers can win Ohio if they've got an hour 0:21:50.760 --> 0:21:52.639 after it. So I think it'll be closer than it 0:21:52.960 --> 0:21:55.760 ought to be, and maybe he'll do the upset of 0:21:55.800 --> 0:21:58.639 the century there, but he's going to need more of 0:21:58.640 --> 0:22:01.000 a lead than he has right now. But it goes 0:22:01.040 --> 0:22:03.480 back to what um and I agree with Mike, but 0:22:03.520 --> 0:22:05.960 it goes back to what Brian was saying, which is 0:22:06.000 --> 0:22:09.960 that so few Democrats are really weaponizing the economic case. 0:22:10.320 --> 0:22:14.240 Tim is an exception. Um. He from the day after 0:22:14.480 --> 0:22:18.000 j D won the primary, started running ads talking about 0:22:18.000 --> 0:22:20.520 how j D turned his back on the state of Ohio, 0:22:20.840 --> 0:22:23.560 moved to Silicon Valley, made all this money is coming 0:22:23.560 --> 0:22:26.720 back is funded by these billionaires. And it does remind 0:22:26.720 --> 0:22:29.919 me a little bit more of the messaging that Barack 0:22:29.920 --> 0:22:34.280 Obama used very effectively against Mitt Romney in which is 0:22:34.320 --> 0:22:36.680 to make the Republicans seem like they're the ones out 0:22:36.720 --> 0:22:38.879 of touch and that they're going to be disasters for 0:22:38.960 --> 0:22:41.960