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Speaker 1: Hi everyone, I'm Katie Curic and this is next Question.

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Speaker 1: We're only a few weeks out from the mid terms

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Speaker 1: and there is a lot to unpack. It seems like

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Speaker 1: there's a new story every day about some race or another.

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Speaker 1: So I've brought on some of my favorite political experts

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Speaker 1: to help us all better understand what's at stake, what

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Speaker 1: are the races to watch, and what this all means

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Speaker 1: for My guest today are media and political strategists and

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Speaker 1: my former podcasting co host, Brian Goldsmith. I tried to

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Speaker 1: get Katie to think about running for office. I I

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Speaker 1: seriously did. She won't. She won't consider it, sadly for me,

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Speaker 1: as well as Liz Smith, a twenty year veteran of

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Speaker 1: Democratic political campaigns from Barack Obama to Peep Buddha j Edge.

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Speaker 1: She also has a new memoir out called Any Given Tuesday,

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Speaker 1: a Political Love Story, and she has that same feral

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Speaker 1: magnetism tour that Donald Trump does. And Republican political consultant

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Speaker 1: and host along with David axel Rod of the political

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Speaker 1: podcast Hacks on Tap Mike Murphy, Oh, I've been freaked

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Speaker 1: up for a decade about American politics. Let's dive in

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Speaker 1: Hello to my three amigoes. So great to see you all,

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Speaker 1: and I'm very excited to unpack these upcoming mid terms,

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Speaker 1: which I'm really getting pitted out about it, lovely. I

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Speaker 1: just wanted to paint that picture for all our listeners.

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Speaker 1: I mean, listen, it's felt like a bit of a

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Speaker 1: roller coaster in terms of what we might expect. And

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Speaker 1: I mean, I have my sort of point of view,

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Speaker 1: but I've got you three, So who cares what I think?

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Speaker 1: What do you think is going to happen? Or give

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Speaker 1: us sort of the state of play right now, knowing

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Speaker 1: full well that things could change on a dime. Mike,

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Speaker 1: what do you see happening? Well, you know, I'm I've

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Speaker 1: got the boring answer, which is I think it's gonna

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Speaker 1: be a typical mid term. You know, generally since World

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Speaker 1: War Two, the average has been the president's party loses

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Speaker 1: about twenties six seats. So there's been three instances, you know,

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Speaker 1: where that hasn't happened. So the big question is is

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Speaker 1: it different this time? Well, you take the mid term problems,

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Speaker 1: you add inflation on it, gas prices, all that sort

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Speaker 1: of stuff, and that would probably make it worse for

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Speaker 1: the Democrats. But there are some different things going on.

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Speaker 1: There's row which has energized some young voters who normally

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Speaker 1: don't vote in the off here that could be a

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Speaker 1: thumb on the scale, and I would say some old

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Speaker 1: voters tom exactly. But but the turnout problem is young voters.

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Speaker 1: Democrats have a big problem in the off You're getting

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Speaker 1: their young voters to show up. Maybe this will do it.

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Speaker 1: There's some anecdotal evidence. We do at the University of

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Speaker 1: Southern California Center for Plaical Future, I'm involved. We do

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Speaker 1: a voter registration thing and this year is the biggest

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Speaker 1: we've ever had by far. Is exploding, which is a typic.

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Speaker 1: So you know, there's that. And the Republicans have nominated

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Speaker 1: my beloved party that I'm hanging onto by a thread,

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Speaker 1: as we've nominated some real cinder blocks. Well, I'm a conservative,

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Speaker 1: and problem is I'm on policy. I'm right as center,

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Speaker 1: So I can't, you know, get out the Carl Mark's

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Speaker 1: heart tattoo and join the Democrats. I've been voting for

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Speaker 1: some lately, I have to admit, because we have some

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Speaker 1: unfit people running. But in a way of election, a

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Speaker 1: cinder block can get washed twenty feet so they could

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Speaker 1: win the Senate is the question. Yeah, Liz, what do

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Speaker 1: you see? So I agree with both you and with Mike.

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Speaker 1: It has been a complete roller coaster, starting with the

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Speaker 1: messy withdrawal from Afghanistan, when we saw Biden somers tank

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Speaker 1: and as a result, you know, in correlation with that,

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Speaker 1: Democrats fortunes across the country tank. Then the Job's decision

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Speaker 1: coming out, and now I agree with Mike that it

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Speaker 1: is reverting to sort of a normal midterm. But I'm

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Speaker 1: gonna add one more use of bad news and there

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Speaker 1: for Democrats, which is something that I've heard from people

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Speaker 1: on battleground races across the country, which is the things

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Speaker 1: that keep them up at night are one, gas prices

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Speaker 1: and to a COVID search. And I don't want to

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Speaker 1: universalize my own experience too much, but I just personally

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Speaker 1: just tested positive for COVID an hour ago. Oh gosh,

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Speaker 1: this just endless justin I'm gonna put my mask on

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Speaker 1: right here, and I gotta tell you, I'm hearing um

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Speaker 1: from doctors and people across the country, like I see

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Speaker 1: us just filling up. And I think if you add inflation,

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Speaker 1: gas prices, COVID surging onto everything that it is. You know,

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Speaker 1: it's looking like a typical midterms, which is bad news

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Speaker 1: for Democrats. Yeah, you know, I feel like the timing

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Speaker 1: on these economic issues, Brian could not be worse with

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Speaker 1: the Democrats. I even read a piece this morning I

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Speaker 1: forget where because I read so much about inflation numbers

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Speaker 1: sort of in just a few months kind of leveling off,

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Speaker 1: but not in time for the mid terms. So do

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Speaker 1: you agree with Liz that we've got gas prices, inflation,

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Speaker 1: and potentially a COVID surge and that's going to really

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Speaker 1: serve to bury the Democrats. Yeah, I'm pretty pessimistic. I'm

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Speaker 1: I'm a Democrat now, I'm no longer a journalist covering

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Speaker 1: this stuff. And you know, in in life as in politics,

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Speaker 1: timing is everything. And the Democrats were in a pretty

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Speaker 1: good position to win the election that didn't happen in

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Speaker 1: early September. Um, they're in a pretty crappy position for

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Speaker 1: the election that is actually happening. Um in a few weeks.

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Speaker 1: You have gas prices going up again, you have a

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Speaker 1: failure of the party to drive an effective economic contrast,

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Speaker 1: and that and not row is the number one issue.

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Speaker 1: Two thirds of Americans think the economy is getting worse.

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Speaker 1: Three quarters think that we're on the wrong track. This

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Speaker 1: is a recipe for, as Mike said, a typical mid

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Speaker 1: term year with you know, substantial losses for the Democrats.

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Speaker 1: Why haven't the Democrats lis been able to make a

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Speaker 1: compelling argument about the economy. It seems that they have

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Speaker 1: almost abdicated this whole economic issue. I know traditionally voters

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Speaker 1: inc Republicans do a better job handling the economy, but

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Speaker 1: it seems like the Democrats are coming up slightly empty

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Speaker 1: handed to me and correct me if I'm wrong. So

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Speaker 1: I look, I agree with that. I think it's the

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Speaker 1: results of a couple of things. And one is that

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Speaker 1: a lot of these economic issues, whether it's either whether

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Speaker 1: it's inflation or gas prices, it's largely out of you know,

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Speaker 1: any one person, anyone political parties control. So there is

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Speaker 1: sort of you know, hesitance to about how to communicate

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Speaker 1: about that because it is out of people's control. And

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Speaker 1: we know that, um, one day gas prices can be

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Speaker 1: low and the next day Saudi Arabia can make an

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Speaker 1: announcement right before the midterms that can um cause gas

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Speaker 1: prices to spike again. The seconding is. Look, a lot

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Speaker 1: of Democrats did sort of put all their eggs in

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Speaker 1: the Row basket, and um, when the Dobs decision came out,

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Speaker 1: we really saw a surge of enthusiasm there. And I

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Speaker 1: still think ROW is gonna be really important, but it

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Speaker 1: does make me a little bit nervous, whether I'm in

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Speaker 1: New York or I was in Michigan last weekend, and

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Speaker 1: I look at all the Democrats ads, and I gotta say,

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Speaker 1: of them are about ROW, and I just I have

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Speaker 1: heard less and less about it from voters, from friends

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Speaker 1: who are outside of politics, and more about inflation and

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Speaker 1: gas prices. And you know, I personally would like to

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Speaker 1: see more Democrats going out there and saying we feel

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Speaker 1: your pain. We haven't gotten everything right, but we are

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Speaker 1: trying to lower your costs. We did the Inflation Reduction Act,

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Speaker 1: which is gonna allow Medicare to negotiate for lower gas prices,

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Speaker 1: cap the price of insulin. We voted to import b

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Speaker 1: BE formula, which Republicans opposed. We vote to do this that,

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Speaker 1: and to say at least we are trying, whereas the

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Speaker 1: Republicans are trying to make your life miserable and hope

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Speaker 1: that it helps them win, but we have heard less

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Speaker 1: of that messaging. And part of the reason for that

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Speaker 1: is because it's more remote. Drug prices aren't going to

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Speaker 1: get lower tomorrow. It's gonna happen after the election. So

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Speaker 1: the immediate economic concerns and voters have are harder for

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Speaker 1: Democrats to address. Yeah, I think the problem is inflation

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Speaker 1: is a politician killer because it breaks through all the

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Speaker 1: talk and the three dimensional chess. You go to the

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Speaker 1: grocery store and like you look at like a year ago,

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Speaker 1: I was buying the same stuff for a lot less.

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Speaker 1: So every week you get kicked there. Then you get

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Speaker 1: kicked at the gas pump, and so those two things

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Speaker 1: breakthrough all that. I've got a nine point plan or

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Speaker 1: you know, and it's like, you know what, Trump might

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Speaker 1: have been crazy, but when he was in I wasn't

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Speaker 1: getting slaughtered like this. And older people are looking at

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Speaker 1: their F one case and the stock market bouncing around,

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Speaker 1: so it's nothing but pain and they're doing what vote.

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Speaker 1: You know, everybody talks about a blue wave, it's not

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Speaker 1: really it's the mid term wave. It can change color.

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Speaker 1: It's tell the boss I'm unhappy, and Americans love doing that.

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Speaker 1: We love changing the channel we love playing the pushing

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Speaker 1: the eject button. And that's what's coming. And the only

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Speaker 1: question is in a few of these close Senate races

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Speaker 1: that the Republicans should be running away with, will the

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Speaker 1: Republican candidates are under performing allow a Democrat to win

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Speaker 1: in a year when they have no business winning. The

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Speaker 1: House is gone? You know, I think that's over with,

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Speaker 1: it's gone. Well. I want to talk about that in

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Speaker 1: the role Marjorie Taylor Green may have if in fact

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Speaker 1: a Republican majority is in the House. But first, um,

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Speaker 1: you know, James Carville said, Republicans are hoping that women

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Speaker 1: have a short attention span. We saw a really remarkable

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Speaker 1: thing happen in Kansas in early August when it came

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Speaker 1: to codifying the constitution right for getting rid of the

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Speaker 1: protection for choice in Kansas, pretty ruby red state, right,

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Speaker 1: So women were incredibly organized. The turnout was enormous. Do

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Speaker 1: American women have a short attend and span? I mean,

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Speaker 1: I guess that's the question. Or does the economy and

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Speaker 1: those prices at the grocery during gas station overwhelmed the

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Speaker 1: desire for reproductive rights in this country? What say you,

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Speaker 1: Brian Goldsmith? You know, a friend of mine said, the

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Speaker 1: Democrats were hoping for Revember and it might have just

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Speaker 1: been raugust, and you know, that's that's a problem. I

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Speaker 1: mean in Kansas, people were just voting up or down

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Speaker 1: on that one issue, and that is fundamentally different than

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Speaker 1: voting for a candidate for the Senate, where you've got

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Speaker 1: a whole range of issues on the ballot um, including

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Speaker 1: the economy and the cost of living and this stuff

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Speaker 1: that just kind of punches you in the face every

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Speaker 1: single day. People aren't out there trying, um, you know,

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Speaker 1: most people to get an abortion every single day, but

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Speaker 1: they are shopping for gas and groceries and and so

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Speaker 1: you know, to Mike's point, the economy is not something

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Speaker 1: that you can change between now in the election, but

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Speaker 1: that doesn't mean that there isn't any thing you can

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Speaker 1: do if you're a Democrat. And I worry our party

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Speaker 1: has failed to learn the lessons of President Obama's reelection

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Speaker 1: in twelve, which Liz played an integral role in where

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Speaker 1: you had, uh, you know, mediocre to bad economy that

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Speaker 1: people were feeling um and Obama was in charge, but

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Speaker 1: he was able to drive a contrast about who's fighting

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Speaker 1: to make the economy work for people like me, and

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Speaker 1: and that's the contrast that I don't see out there. Yeah,

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Speaker 1: and just to add to that, as the only woman

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Speaker 1: besides the U Katie on the call, and I would say, yes,

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Speaker 1: we um, I improved positive that women can have short

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Speaker 1: attention spans, UM, but women can also be multitaskers. And

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Speaker 1: women are also responsible for balancing their families checkbooks, for

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Speaker 1: you know, filling up their gas tanks, for shopping for groceries.

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Speaker 1: And these are UM things that they're seeing every day

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Speaker 1: as well. So while you would think, okay, a fundamental

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Speaker 1: right is on the line, that's number one thing, it

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Speaker 1: is really hard to keep the focus on ROW when

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Speaker 1: I think, as Mike said, you know, gas prices and

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Speaker 1: the price of milk and whatever it is is hitting

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Speaker 1: in the face UM every day. And so in places,

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Speaker 1: you know, to Brian's point, um, like Kansas, where that's

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Speaker 1: the thing on the ballot. In places like Michigan where

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Speaker 1: you're gonna have that on the ballot, it ROW might

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Speaker 1: be more of a factor because they have um an

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Speaker 1: initiative they're about whether to overturn a complete ban on abortion.

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Speaker 1: So there it's on the ballot and it's literally in

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Speaker 1: your face. But a lot of other states, like if

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Speaker 1: you live in New York, you know that our state

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Speaker 1: law is very strong and protecting a woman's right to choose.

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Speaker 1: There are seven battleground house races here that then row

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Speaker 1: is probably gonna take a back seat. If you live

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Speaker 1: in Arizona, row and abortion have never been in the

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Speaker 1: top five issues issues for voters. Yeah, but what about

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Speaker 1: this national abortion band that all the republic kids are

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Speaker 1: talking about. To me, that really increases the urgency of

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Speaker 1: this issue a little more than normal, does it? Not? Look?

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Speaker 1: I sort of agree, But I also think we have

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Speaker 1: to realize that we deal with the electorate as it is,

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Speaker 1: not as it should be. And I agree, I think

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Speaker 1: that these things should matter more. But it goes to

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Speaker 1: show you that with a lot of voters, the things

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Speaker 1: that matter most are the things that are right in

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Speaker 1: front of their face. They don't think in terms of

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Speaker 1: the long term, right right, And I think that's true

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Speaker 1: of everything might go ahead. Yeah, there's also what's the

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Speaker 1: most invisible group in American pop culture, pro life women.

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Speaker 1: One out of six voters is a pro life female,

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Speaker 1: the most pro choice group in America. By the way,

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Speaker 1: You know, we always say women. No, it's young men

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Speaker 1: who also don't vote in the off Your election is

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Speaker 1: a real question about row is well, young men who

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Speaker 1: tell democratic and are over very pro choice in most

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Speaker 1: places show up. You know what's happened is or and

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Speaker 1: and and Liz is right. There are plenty of states

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Speaker 1: where it's a little bit settled. The Nevada center race,

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Speaker 1: which doesn't get a lot of attention because decide the Senate.

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Speaker 1: They've got a constitutional prohibition there. So it's not killing

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Speaker 1: Adam Laxalt the way the Democratic incumbent thought in a

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Speaker 1: very pro choice state, I think he's gonna beat her

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Speaker 1: and pick up that seat. So between gas and groceries

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Speaker 1: and the fact that it's not as overwhelmingly an eight

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Speaker 1: twenty issue among the population, and in those swing seats,

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Speaker 1: it's more pro choice than pro life, but it's not

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Speaker 1: the hammer. In some places, it's not seen as a

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Speaker 1: top issue. The New New York Times poll of people

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Speaker 1: say the economy, only eight percent say abortion rights. Well,

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Speaker 1: what about this national band, Brian? Is that looming in

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Speaker 1: the minds of voters? You think in some ways, if

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Speaker 1: the you know, Republicans take the Senate, they're gonna start

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Speaker 1: working on that, I think pretty prompto. Right, I'm not sure.

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Speaker 1: I didn't see a lot of enthusiasm from Mitch McConnell

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Speaker 1: for a national abortion band. He may be kind of

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Speaker 1: forced into it by a majority of his caucus, just

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Speaker 1: as he's been forced into a whole bunch of stuff

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Speaker 1: that he hasn't necessarily personally wanted to do. But you know,

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Speaker 1: I'm not sure that that's going to be the election driver.

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Speaker 1: I mean, the outcome of elections is as much about

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Speaker 1: what is the issue territory you're fighting on as what

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Speaker 1: each side says. And if we close this election on

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Speaker 1: inflation and crime and perceptions about the direction of the economy,

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Speaker 1: a lot of very flawed Republican candidates are going to

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Speaker 1: get in because they have the edge on those issues. Well,

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Speaker 1: let's talk about that. Let's talk about the Trump factor

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Speaker 1: and the Biden factor. How effective has Trump been in

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Speaker 1: terms of his endorsements of various candidates, Mike, I mean,

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Speaker 1: he is still the standard bearer of the Republican Party.

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Speaker 1: Is he helping hurting? Is it a wash? Well, in

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Speaker 1: most primaries he helps a lot. But once you get

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Speaker 1: him out of the primary world, you know, then then

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Speaker 1: he's on a planet where he can barely breathe, and

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Speaker 1: any swing general election, he's a problem, you know, where

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Speaker 1: both parties are competitive, and those suburban congressional stage is

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Speaker 1: a problem. You know, you don't see all these candidates

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Speaker 1: running to him. Now, we have a few candidates who

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Speaker 1: win a primary and are clueless and are running the

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Speaker 1: general election like a Republican primary. So there are a

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Speaker 1: few places, even in this wave where a Democrat who

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Speaker 1: auto loses seat may win on that. But but Trump

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Speaker 1: is an anchor around the neck of the party in

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Speaker 1: a general election. The problem is he is a need

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Speaker 1: to be in the center of everything. So he's kind

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Speaker 1: of the unwanted guest who shows up and you know,

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Speaker 1: what do you do? Speaking of the anchor, let's talk

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Speaker 1: about the anchor lady running for governor in the state

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Speaker 1: of Arizona, Carry Lake, who is sort of the new

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Speaker 1: face of Trump is hum And I don't know if

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Speaker 1: you all watched Dana Bash interview her on on State

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Speaker 1: of the Union on Sunday. I thought Danna did a real,

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Speaker 1: really incredible job. She kept calling her Dana, I think

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Speaker 1: to get under her skin. I don't know if you

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Speaker 1: noticed that. And she kind of interchanged Dana and Dana. Dana,

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Speaker 1: I'm gonna have to disagree with you on the figure

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Speaker 1: you just put out. The real issue, Dana is that

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Speaker 1: the people don't trust. The question is are you undermining

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Speaker 1: faith and elections by saying that election was stolen when

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Speaker 1: there's absolutely no evidence to support that. Dana, You know

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Speaker 1: she is really embracing Trump and vice versa. So what

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Speaker 1: do you see going on there? Well? I think that, um,

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Speaker 1: she's been a really fascinating candidate because unlike a lot

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Speaker 1: of the other sort of Trump indoors senate candidates this

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Speaker 1: cycle who run away from the press, don't really communicate

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Speaker 1: with the public, sort of hide the ball, She's been

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Speaker 1: very full frontal in her campaigning, both with voters traveling

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Speaker 1: around the state and with local and national media. And

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Speaker 1: she has that same feral magnetism to her that Donald

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Speaker 1: Trump does, and sort of a knowledge of how to

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Speaker 1: work a stage, how to work the media. That's interesting

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Speaker 1: feral magnetism. Yeah, but there is something, there is something

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Speaker 1: to when you see her work a stage that you

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Speaker 1: don't quite have with the Hershel Walker, you don't have

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Speaker 1: with a Doug Mastriano or Blake Masters, And it's why

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Speaker 1: I think that she will be one of the you know,

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Speaker 1: election deniers who slips through on the gubernatorial level. But

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Speaker 1: she sort of perfected Trump is m and figured out

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Speaker 1: how to take the crazy um and what I view

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Speaker 1: is crazy and how to sort of soft sell it

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Speaker 1: in these interviews, and certainly with Dana Bash. I mean,

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Speaker 1: you saw just how slippery she was. One of the

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Speaker 1: problems there, right, is that we don't have the strongest

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Speaker 1: of Democratic candidates, sir, I'll just put it that way.

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Speaker 1: And she refuses to um debate Carrie Lake, which I think,

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Speaker 1: why is she doing that? Her her opponent, and that's

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Speaker 1: the Secretary state, right, Lady Hobbs. Yeah, she's a train

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Speaker 1: wreck of a candidate. That's the problem. They've They've got

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Speaker 1: a slow pony, a train wreck of a candidate. She's

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Speaker 1: really turned out to be a dud. And that's given

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Speaker 1: the race to carry Lake in a state that is

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Speaker 1: very wave affected. Yeah, and if you've been a major

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Speaker 1: market local TV news anchor for twenty years, that is

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Speaker 1: pretty darn good preparation for running for office and being

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Speaker 1: slick on the receiving end of TV interviews and and

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Speaker 1: knowing how to make an appearance that's effective. And you know,

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Speaker 1: there's just no comparison in terms of candidate skills her.

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Speaker 1: She's a great retail politician, whatever you think. And she

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Speaker 1: has the best zoom filter in the business. The interview

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Speaker 1: is real hilarious because there's about filters on the camera.

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Speaker 1: She stole it. She stole it from Barbara Walters. It's unbelievable.

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Speaker 1: You can't see a poor Yeah, is that true? Yes,

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Speaker 1: you gotta see it. But I also think, Katie, maybe

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Speaker 1: we've found the next chapter for you. Oh oh, I

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Speaker 1: I don't think so. I try to get think about

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Speaker 1: running for office. I I seriously did she She won't

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Speaker 1: consider it. Sadly, my skin is too thin for that.

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Speaker 1: When we come back, did you know more than two

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Speaker 1: hundred election deniers are running for office up and down

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Speaker 1: the ballot. We talk about what that means for our democracy.

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Speaker 1: Right after this, can we just talk about a few

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Speaker 1: other races where the Trump factor has helped jd vance.

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Speaker 1: Obviously wouldn't be getting as much traction as he is,

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Speaker 1: and I know he didn't do very well in that debate.

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Speaker 1: Tim Ryan kind of ate his lunch, but isn't he

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Speaker 1: still favorite? Dwyn in Ohio guys. I would argue it

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Speaker 1: slightly differently. If it weren't for Trump, the Republican would

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Speaker 1: be running away with a lot of these races. I mean,

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Speaker 1: David McCormick in Pennsylvania I think would be up five

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Speaker 1: or ten over Betterman. It's it's because Trump pushed a

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Speaker 1: lot of very flawed Republican candidates, you know, to the

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Speaker 1: nomination that a lot of these races that, as Mike says,

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Speaker 1: are very way susceptible, are actually competitive, helpful in the primary,

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Speaker 1: hurtful in the general. Exactly. It totally true. Vance is

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Speaker 1: a terrible candidate. Ryan is running the best Democratic swing

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Speaker 1: state campaign in the country for a Democrat. Now he's

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Speaker 1: breaking all the d n C rules and he's running

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Speaker 1: as kind of a lunch pail, a little more culturally conservative.

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Speaker 1: There's a lot of kind of keeping his distance from Biden,

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Speaker 1: right and saying we need we don't need an ass kisser,

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Speaker 1: we need an ass kicker, which was a pretty good line.

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Speaker 1: You gotta admit that said, this is an election where

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Speaker 1: boxing hammers can win Ohio if they've got an hour

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Speaker 1: after it. So I think it'll be closer than it

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Speaker 1: ought to be, and maybe he'll do the upset of

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Speaker 1: the century there, but he's going to need more of

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Speaker 1: a lead than he has right now. But it goes

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Speaker 1: back to what um and I agree with Mike, but

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Speaker 1: it goes back to what Brian was saying, which is

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Speaker 1: that so few Democrats are really weaponizing the economic case.

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Speaker 1: Tim is an exception. Um. He from the day after

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Speaker 1: j D won the primary, started running ads talking about

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Speaker 1: how j D turned his back on the state of Ohio,

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Speaker 1: moved to Silicon Valley, made all this money is coming

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Speaker 1: back is funded by these billionaires. And it does remind

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Speaker 1: me a little bit more of the messaging that Barack

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Speaker 1: Obama used very effectively against Mitt Romney in which is

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Speaker 1: to make the Republicans seem like they're the ones out

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Speaker 1: of touch and that they're going to be disasters for

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Speaker 1: your family. And that's one of the reasons why he's

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Speaker 1: been able to hang tough in there. But there's no

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Speaker 1: doubt it is gonna be really, really tough for a

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Speaker 1: Democrat to win in this environment in Ohio. How much

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Speaker 1: is Biden hurting And I mean, it's so frustrating to

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Speaker 1: me that the Democrats seemed to be so feckless on

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Speaker 1: the other hand, they've got a Democratic president whose approval

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Speaker 1: rating is forty I don't even know what the latest

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Speaker 1: approval rating is, forty three, he's creeped up a little,

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Speaker 1: but his disapprovals fifty five. So the political majority is unapproved. So, Brian,

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Speaker 1: how much of an albatross is Joe Biden? For all

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Speaker 1: these Democratic candidates? You see people like Tim Ryan distancing himself. Um,

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Speaker 1: that's happened in other races. I think Mark Kelly has

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Speaker 1: tried to do that in Arizona and his Senate race. Um.

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Speaker 1: But but you know they all have ds after their names.

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Speaker 1: How much can they really do that? I mean, no

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Speaker 1: more than normal normally in the midterm year, whoever is

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Speaker 1: the incumbent president hurts his party a little bit. And

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Speaker 1: the intensity of opposition to Joe Biden is not like

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Speaker 1: the intensity of opposition to Donald Trump or even the

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Speaker 1: intensity of opposition to Barack Obama in two He doesn't

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Speaker 1: generate quite that level of vitriol, which is why you're

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Speaker 1: seeing a lot of the Republican attack machine go after

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Speaker 1: other villains, you know, AOC and even Pelosi and a

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Speaker 1: few others. Um, So he doesn't help. But I don't

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Speaker 1: think that that is the story of the election. Who's

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Speaker 1: a Democratic attack machine going after Well, I think his

428
00:24:18,320 --> 00:24:21,720
Speaker 1: name rhymes with Ronald Shrump, you know, I think. But

429
00:24:21,760 --> 00:24:25,040
Speaker 1: the problem is he's not president. Why is Joe Biden

430
00:24:25,520 --> 00:24:28,440
Speaker 1: so unpopular and have things like the climate bill, the

431
00:24:28,520 --> 00:24:33,600
Speaker 1: student debt cancelation, anything he's done. Why is he still

432
00:24:34,000 --> 00:24:37,600
Speaker 1: so unpopular? Well, you know, he's the Rodney Dangerfield of

433
00:24:37,600 --> 00:24:41,120
Speaker 1: American politics because on the legislative side, he's done really well.

434
00:24:41,720 --> 00:24:45,680
Speaker 1: He has passed more big important bipartisans stuff than any

435
00:24:45,720 --> 00:24:49,240
Speaker 1: president in decades. The Chips Bill is huge. You know,

436
00:24:49,240 --> 00:24:52,439
Speaker 1: we're gonna build semiconductors here and get kind of the

437
00:24:52,600 --> 00:24:57,000
Speaker 1: energy equivalence you know, uh thing for the semis that

438
00:24:57,040 --> 00:24:59,000
Speaker 1: are the key to almost anything we're gonna make in

439
00:24:59,040 --> 00:25:03,280
Speaker 1: the future. Decent gun bill got done, of course, that

440
00:25:03,359 --> 00:25:06,000
Speaker 1: by Parson. Infrastructure bill, one thing after another. I think

441
00:25:06,000 --> 00:25:09,280
Speaker 1: there are two failures though. One is, you know, the

442
00:25:09,320 --> 00:25:12,200
Speaker 1: minute they got infrastructure done, they switched over to hey,

443
00:25:12,280 --> 00:25:15,880
Speaker 1: let's spend World War two level money on being FDR

444
00:25:16,119 --> 00:25:18,800
Speaker 1: And they never got the victory lap they deserved there,

445
00:25:18,800 --> 00:25:21,040
Speaker 1: and they didn't really try to take it. Uh And

446
00:25:21,160 --> 00:25:23,320
Speaker 1: you know, I would be selling the Chips bill like

447
00:25:23,359 --> 00:25:25,639
Speaker 1: the Apollo Project. It is a huge win for a

448
00:25:25,720 --> 00:25:28,879
Speaker 1: hundred thousand dollar year American manufacturing jobs and a hundred

449
00:25:28,880 --> 00:25:31,760
Speaker 1: and sixty issue. Republicans voted no, No, let the Chinese

450
00:25:31,840 --> 00:25:34,800
Speaker 1: run the future. Um, I don't hear that. I don't

451
00:25:34,840 --> 00:25:38,520
Speaker 1: hear any of that stuff. So Biden has not grabbed

452
00:25:38,520 --> 00:25:41,720
Speaker 1: the microphone and done what he could do. Second, when

453
00:25:41,760 --> 00:25:45,119
Speaker 1: you're paying many bar prices for gasoline, the president is

454
00:25:45,160 --> 00:25:47,359
Speaker 1: going to get his butt kicked by the American public.

455
00:25:47,880 --> 00:25:52,040
Speaker 1: And even though Biden didn't do it as the world market,

456
00:25:52,440 --> 00:25:55,120
Speaker 1: but he's got the big job. The big job means

457
00:25:55,119 --> 00:25:57,520
Speaker 1: you get the big blame, I guess. And and third,

458
00:25:57,760 --> 00:26:01,639
Speaker 1: voters rarely vote to say thank you. They write on

459
00:26:01,680 --> 00:26:04,560
Speaker 1: a choice about the future. They don't vote on the past.

460
00:26:05,000 --> 00:26:07,399
Speaker 1: And you all were saying that you didn't think Biden

461
00:26:07,480 --> 00:26:11,119
Speaker 1: or my understanding is you believe that Biden doesn't elicit

462
00:26:11,320 --> 00:26:16,000
Speaker 1: the the hardcore vitriol that say Barack Obama does. But

463
00:26:16,119 --> 00:26:19,160
Speaker 1: I mean, I was out on Long Island this weekend

464
00:26:19,240 --> 00:26:23,480
Speaker 1: and there was a Lee's Elden caravan of cars with

465
00:26:23,600 --> 00:26:28,560
Speaker 1: a lot of Maggot flags, a lot of Trump flags,

466
00:26:28,600 --> 00:26:32,320
Speaker 1: and a lot of f Joe Biden flags. It was

467
00:26:32,359 --> 00:26:37,040
Speaker 1: so gross. So I do feel like, you know, if

468
00:26:37,080 --> 00:26:40,840
Speaker 1: he is the Rodney danger field of politics that he does.

469
00:26:41,680 --> 00:26:45,080
Speaker 1: Maybe it's just the pro Trump, the hardcore Trump people,

470
00:26:45,680 --> 00:26:49,080
Speaker 1: but I just honestly it's sickened me to see car

471
00:26:49,160 --> 00:26:55,840
Speaker 1: after car with these huge flags that said f Joe Biden. Yeah.

472
00:26:55,880 --> 00:26:59,640
Speaker 1: I mean, look, I think he does elicit UM. Maybe

473
00:26:59,680 --> 00:27:01,879
Speaker 1: not as much as as Barack Obama, maybe not as

474
00:27:01,880 --> 00:27:04,680
Speaker 1: Donald Trump, but he does elicit a lot of strong

475
00:27:04,760 --> 00:27:08,200
Speaker 1: feelings from UM, from Republicans. And that's why it's been

476
00:27:08,560 --> 00:27:11,879
Speaker 1: really really smart that unlike Donald Trump, he's sort of

477
00:27:11,920 --> 00:27:14,600
Speaker 1: put his ego in the backseat. You don't see him

478
00:27:14,640 --> 00:27:16,960
Speaker 1: put um sticking his deck out or popping up in

479
00:27:17,000 --> 00:27:19,639
Speaker 1: these states where he is going to be a millstone

480
00:27:19,680 --> 00:27:22,840
Speaker 1: around the neck of Democratic candidates. And the smartest thing

481
00:27:22,840 --> 00:27:24,840
Speaker 1: that Joe Biden can do right now is just go

482
00:27:25,320 --> 00:27:28,639
Speaker 1: be in rooms with rich people and raise UM more money.

483
00:27:28,680 --> 00:27:32,639
Speaker 1: Because part of the reason why Democrats, why their numbers

484
00:27:32,640 --> 00:27:34,919
Speaker 1: are falling in all these races across the country is

485
00:27:35,240 --> 00:27:39,320
Speaker 1: you see the outside groups for Senate Republicans, for Congressional

486
00:27:39,359 --> 00:27:44,960
Speaker 1: Republicans UM spending UM just ungodly. Uh sums of money

487
00:27:45,080 --> 00:27:49,320
Speaker 1: um to defeat the Democrats, and that the cash um

488
00:27:49,400 --> 00:27:52,960
Speaker 1: imbalance is a big problem for Democrats. So that's why

489
00:27:52,960 --> 00:27:55,160
Speaker 1: it's smart of Biden to go to places like Oregon

490
00:27:55,720 --> 00:27:59,000
Speaker 1: or Colorado where he can help. Kamala Harris, you know,

491
00:27:59,160 --> 00:28:02,159
Speaker 1: was in the suburbs of Detroit this past weekend. But

492
00:28:02,600 --> 00:28:04,800
Speaker 1: otherwise it's really smart of Joe Biden to sort of

493
00:28:05,000 --> 00:28:07,920
Speaker 1: take a backseat in this election before we talk about

494
00:28:07,920 --> 00:28:10,959
Speaker 1: some individual races. We got a lot of election deniers

495
00:28:11,040 --> 00:28:14,320
Speaker 1: running out there. We also have secretary of states running

496
00:28:14,800 --> 00:28:18,879
Speaker 1: who basically say the election was rigged and they're going

497
00:28:18,920 --> 00:28:22,960
Speaker 1: to have the power to overturn right, basically essentially the

498
00:28:23,000 --> 00:28:27,760
Speaker 1: will of the people and de facto rigg the next election. Right.

499
00:28:27,880 --> 00:28:31,320
Speaker 1: I mean, how terrifying is that in terms of our

500
00:28:31,640 --> 00:28:35,960
Speaker 1: democratic principles and how much is it going to come

501
00:28:36,000 --> 00:28:39,880
Speaker 1: to fruition if some of these election deniers actually when

502
00:28:39,960 --> 00:28:44,600
Speaker 1: there when their races, Well, it's a problem. And there

503
00:28:44,640 --> 00:28:48,000
Speaker 1: was a headline this morning in the New York Times

504
00:28:48,040 --> 00:28:51,320
Speaker 1: that I thought you saw that for the history books.

505
00:28:51,320 --> 00:28:54,800
Speaker 1: You know, voters see democracy and peril but mostly don't care.

506
00:28:55,400 --> 00:28:59,840
Speaker 1: And I think that is the story that other issues

507
00:29:00,120 --> 00:29:04,320
Speaker 1: taking precedence because you know, abstract, it's not in front

508
00:29:04,320 --> 00:29:08,560
Speaker 1: of their faces. Yeah, little d democratic principles are not

509
00:29:08,960 --> 00:29:13,320
Speaker 1: you know what I'm thinking about as a voter day

510
00:29:13,360 --> 00:29:17,600
Speaker 1: to day. And so yes, there will be election deniers

511
00:29:18,040 --> 00:29:21,760
Speaker 1: swept up in this thing, partly because Trump has made

512
00:29:21,800 --> 00:29:26,440
Speaker 1: that a requirement for not just winning his endorsement, but

513
00:29:26,440 --> 00:29:30,640
Speaker 1: but extinguishing his opposition. I mean he went after yesterday,

514
00:29:30,680 --> 00:29:35,680
Speaker 1: I think or two days ago the Republican nominee for

515
00:29:35,920 --> 00:29:40,320
Speaker 1: Senate in Colorado, which is potentially a very competitive race

516
00:29:40,880 --> 00:29:45,080
Speaker 1: because he'd rather lose than have a Republican who's not

517
00:29:45,200 --> 00:29:49,040
Speaker 1: totally indebted to him. So he's been very effective as

518
00:29:49,040 --> 00:29:52,440
Speaker 1: a sort of neo fascist in taking control of his

519
00:29:52,560 --> 00:29:56,440
Speaker 1: party and punishing people, even people who agree with them

520
00:29:56,440 --> 00:29:58,480
Speaker 1: maybe percent of the time, if they're not going to

521
00:29:58,560 --> 00:30:01,960
Speaker 1: take the full magaline on elections. And Mike, does it

522
00:30:02,080 --> 00:30:04,600
Speaker 1: just freak you out? Oh, I've been freaked out for

523
00:30:04,640 --> 00:30:07,880
Speaker 1: a decade about American politics. But first of all, Trump's

524
00:30:07,920 --> 00:30:11,520
Speaker 1: losing his grip. No, but about democracy, I think it's

525
00:30:11,520 --> 00:30:14,200
Speaker 1: sent a decline. So I we'll see, we'll see new

526
00:30:14,200 --> 00:30:18,360
Speaker 1: primary pull trumpets that means he'd win nomination now but

527
00:30:18,480 --> 00:30:21,560
Speaker 1: it's now what it used to be. So politics is dynamic,

528
00:30:21,600 --> 00:30:24,480
Speaker 1: it's always changing. I worry about democracy, but I don't

529
00:30:24,520 --> 00:30:27,200
Speaker 1: panic about it. We have a huge cultural failure in

530
00:30:27,240 --> 00:30:29,960
Speaker 1: the US. We we've converted politics into a reality show

531
00:30:30,000 --> 00:30:34,280
Speaker 1: with no stakes, real housewives of the presidency, and so

532
00:30:34,400 --> 00:30:38,160
Speaker 1: people have become spectators and they're like, it's all rhetoric.

533
00:30:38,400 --> 00:30:40,479
Speaker 1: They don't believe there's a real threat, because if they

534
00:30:40,480 --> 00:30:42,760
Speaker 1: thought there's a real threat, they do something about it.

535
00:30:43,000 --> 00:30:46,560
Speaker 1: And remember it's tribal. The Democrats all think, you know,

536
00:30:46,640 --> 00:30:49,760
Speaker 1: democracy has gone Trump's gonna goose step into the White House,

537
00:30:50,120 --> 00:30:52,360
Speaker 1: you know, And that's half the vote. The other half

538
00:30:52,400 --> 00:30:56,240
Speaker 1: think maybe of them are worried, the other saying it's rhetoric.

539
00:30:56,680 --> 00:30:59,440
Speaker 1: So the country is not unified on the problem. I

540
00:30:59,520 --> 00:31:02,880
Speaker 1: have some faith, like in the last election, that good

541
00:31:02,880 --> 00:31:04,920
Speaker 1: people in the right places will do the right thing

542
00:31:04,920 --> 00:31:07,240
Speaker 1: in the end. I mean, Trump's thing was thrown out

543
00:31:07,280 --> 00:31:09,960
Speaker 1: by every judge you looked at it. Election officials of

544
00:31:10,000 --> 00:31:13,200
Speaker 1: the Republican Party. It's easy for Democrats to call Trump names,

545
00:31:13,480 --> 00:31:16,160
Speaker 1: and they're right. I agree with them, but Republicans have

546
00:31:16,200 --> 00:31:18,520
Speaker 1: to commit career suicide to do it. But people did it.

547
00:31:19,000 --> 00:31:22,560
Speaker 1: Brad Raffensburger did it. The election officials in Michigan did it.

548
00:31:22,640 --> 00:31:24,440
Speaker 1: So do I believe the threat is there? And I'm

549
00:31:24,560 --> 00:31:28,520
Speaker 1: am I extremely worked up about it. Yes. Do I

550
00:31:28,560 --> 00:31:31,920
Speaker 1: think it's the trux of this election. No, but I

551
00:31:31,960 --> 00:31:33,760
Speaker 1: think measures are going to have to be taken. And

552
00:31:33,800 --> 00:31:35,800
Speaker 1: the one thing they may get done in the lame

553
00:31:35,880 --> 00:31:39,400
Speaker 1: Duck I would bet they will is the electoral account reformat,

554
00:31:39,480 --> 00:31:42,920
Speaker 1: which is a quiet technical piece of legislation that bolts

555
00:31:42,960 --> 00:31:46,320
Speaker 1: down the electoral college, which is vital. Now the left

556
00:31:46,320 --> 00:31:47,920
Speaker 1: will say, oh, the Supreme Court will do it, No,

557
00:31:48,000 --> 00:31:51,480
Speaker 1: they won't. It is it is the patch on the

558
00:31:51,560 --> 00:31:54,920
Speaker 1: software that has created a lot of this vulnerability, and

559
00:31:54,960 --> 00:31:57,080
Speaker 1: I think that's going to be gone by Christmas or

560
00:31:57,120 --> 00:31:59,440
Speaker 1: by the end of January. Liz, I want you to

561
00:31:59,480 --> 00:32:01,880
Speaker 1: weigh in on this because this is something I can't say.

562
00:32:01,880 --> 00:32:04,200
Speaker 1: It keeps me up at night, but I'm completely, very

563
00:32:04,280 --> 00:32:08,760
Speaker 1: very stressed out about uh sort of having the cards

564
00:32:08,800 --> 00:32:12,360
Speaker 1: stacked in a way in many of these states that

565
00:32:12,400 --> 00:32:17,840
Speaker 1: will basically disrupt democracy. Right. It's and it's you've got governors,

566
00:32:17,960 --> 00:32:22,480
Speaker 1: you've got secretaries of state, attorneys general, state legislators. I

567
00:32:22,480 --> 00:32:26,040
Speaker 1: think they're over two election deniers, you know, running crofts

568
00:32:26,080 --> 00:32:29,320
Speaker 1: across the country at every level. And so yeah, no,

569
00:32:29,480 --> 00:32:33,680
Speaker 1: we should be very concerned. But you know, I don't

570
00:32:33,720 --> 00:32:36,440
Speaker 1: have anything inspiring or or heartening to say on this.

571
00:32:36,600 --> 00:32:40,040
Speaker 1: It's that it does seem more remote to people. And

572
00:32:40,840 --> 00:32:44,040
Speaker 1: the thing that gets less focus is not necessarily the

573
00:32:44,480 --> 00:32:46,920
Speaker 1: Mastriano's a carry lakes, but all the people up and

574
00:32:46,960 --> 00:32:49,040
Speaker 1: down the ticket, right who are going to get elected

575
00:32:49,720 --> 00:32:53,960
Speaker 1: and who have actual power in this arena, right, Yeah, yeah,

576
00:32:54,000 --> 00:32:57,800
Speaker 1: for pulling the levers of elections and who have been

577
00:32:57,880 --> 00:32:59,840
Speaker 1: on a bash it by the way, and how they've

578
00:33:00,080 --> 00:33:02,040
Speaker 1: paint on this. They haven't like tried to hide the

579
00:33:02,040 --> 00:33:05,560
Speaker 1: ball here. They've been very open about the fact that um,

580
00:33:05,600 --> 00:33:09,440
Speaker 1: you know, they take was stolen and that if four

581
00:33:09,520 --> 00:33:12,360
Speaker 1: doesn't go their way that they'll make sure that they

582
00:33:12,520 --> 00:33:15,360
Speaker 1: or their secretaries stay what whoever it is, you know,

583
00:33:15,440 --> 00:33:17,160
Speaker 1: takes a close look at things. So I think it

584
00:33:17,440 --> 00:33:20,760
Speaker 1: is something we should be very concerned about because increasingly

585
00:33:20,840 --> 00:33:22,840
Speaker 1: it looks like the lunatics have been taking over this

586
00:33:22,880 --> 00:33:25,600
Speaker 1: asylum in the GOP and that not only that, is

587
00:33:25,600 --> 00:33:29,040
Speaker 1: that they are very um embracing and like Michigan was

588
00:33:29,080 --> 00:33:32,280
Speaker 1: on the early end of this, like in April when

589
00:33:32,320 --> 00:33:35,840
Speaker 1: we saw violent militias storm the capital there it almost

590
00:33:35,880 --> 00:33:39,280
Speaker 1: felt like a tester run for January six. And the

591
00:33:39,360 --> 00:33:41,800
Speaker 1: election to the nihilism does sort of seem to go

592
00:33:41,960 --> 00:33:44,800
Speaker 1: hand in hand with electoral violence, and I just think

593
00:33:44,800 --> 00:33:47,160
Speaker 1: that that's something, not that we need another thing to

594
00:33:47,320 --> 00:33:50,320
Speaker 1: be concerned about after this, sorry Katie, but another thing

595
00:33:50,360 --> 00:33:52,240
Speaker 1: that we should keep an eye on, and that's something

596
00:33:52,280 --> 00:33:55,840
Speaker 1: I'm certainly concerned about um going into the November election. Yeah,

597
00:33:55,960 --> 00:33:58,280
Speaker 1: i'd say one of the thing there is no moral

598
00:33:58,320 --> 00:34:05,720
Speaker 1: equivalence between far left AOC Bernie Democrats and and MAGA Republicans.

599
00:34:05,760 --> 00:34:09,120
Speaker 1: The far left people believe in democracy and the rule

600
00:34:09,160 --> 00:34:12,160
Speaker 1: of law, and they just hold policy views with which

601
00:34:12,719 --> 00:34:19,120
Speaker 1: moderate voters disagree. But the problem is Democrats have been

602
00:34:19,520 --> 00:34:23,760
Speaker 1: a little bit too defined by some of these extreme

603
00:34:23,840 --> 00:34:28,000
Speaker 1: voices to the point where in polling swing voters see

604
00:34:28,080 --> 00:34:33,040
Speaker 1: Democrats and Republicans as equally extreme. That is a big,

605
00:34:33,080 --> 00:34:37,200
Speaker 1: big issue, and Democrats need to turn around and address

606
00:34:37,239 --> 00:34:39,279
Speaker 1: it a s a p or it's going to be

607
00:34:39,320 --> 00:34:43,040
Speaker 1: the death of our party and all sorts of critical races. Yeah,

608
00:34:43,040 --> 00:34:45,400
Speaker 1: I agree with that one footnote, And this is not

609
00:34:45,520 --> 00:34:47,640
Speaker 1: a ray of hope or anything. It is kind of

610
00:34:47,680 --> 00:34:52,360
Speaker 1: like God forbid Mike a flickering, a flickering lightbulb with

611
00:34:52,440 --> 00:34:56,680
Speaker 1: some hope. A third of the election deniers are lying

612
00:34:56,719 --> 00:34:59,640
Speaker 1: through their teeth because they're trying to survive in Republican politics,

613
00:34:59,760 --> 00:35:02,680
Speaker 1: Sam t rhetoric. The worry is the other six fifty

614
00:35:02,760 --> 00:35:06,479
Speaker 1: to sixty that our stone cold nuts, and how many

615
00:35:06,480 --> 00:35:10,560
Speaker 1: of them actually win. And the craziest one I worry about,

616
00:35:10,560 --> 00:35:12,080
Speaker 1: because I think she has a good chance of winning,

617
00:35:12,200 --> 00:35:16,000
Speaker 1: is the potential future governor of Arizona. The rest of

618
00:35:16,000 --> 00:35:17,680
Speaker 1: the master and some of those are mostly gonna all

619
00:35:17,719 --> 00:35:20,520
Speaker 1: get killed off by the electorate, but we could have

620
00:35:20,600 --> 00:35:23,120
Speaker 1: a real crank or two as a governor, which is why,

621
00:35:23,160 --> 00:35:25,480
Speaker 1: again the electoral cadreformat, you've got to take some of

622
00:35:25,520 --> 00:35:28,040
Speaker 1: the power away. So if you have a rogue governor,

623
00:35:28,080 --> 00:35:32,040
Speaker 1: they can't start, you know, sending non elected electoral college

624
00:35:32,960 --> 00:35:37,440
Speaker 1: people to misrepresent the state's voters intention That is the

625
00:35:37,440 --> 00:35:40,480
Speaker 1: big loophole. Well, let's hope that happens before we dig

626
00:35:40,520 --> 00:35:43,120
Speaker 1: into a few of these states. So you know, we've

627
00:35:43,120 --> 00:35:45,960
Speaker 1: mentioned a lot of polls already in this conversation, and

628
00:35:46,040 --> 00:35:51,760
Speaker 1: polling was very problematic, um and obviously flawed in the past,

629
00:35:51,840 --> 00:35:54,080
Speaker 1: and it doesn't seem that a lot of changes have

630
00:35:54,719 --> 00:35:59,040
Speaker 1: been instituted to improve the accuracy of polling. So how

631
00:35:59,560 --> 00:36:01,879
Speaker 1: you know when when you look at the polling are

632
00:36:01,920 --> 00:36:06,000
Speaker 1: you are you do you believe it? Or are you

633
00:36:06,239 --> 00:36:13,280
Speaker 1: kind of thinking that might be under reporting certain certain groups?

634
00:36:13,360 --> 00:36:17,200
Speaker 1: You know, Trump supporters don't want to be is forthcoming

635
00:36:17,200 --> 00:36:22,280
Speaker 1: with polsters, so they sometimes overestimate democratic you know, turnout

636
00:36:22,400 --> 00:36:25,759
Speaker 1: or the effect of democratic turnout. So what what's your

637
00:36:25,800 --> 00:36:29,719
Speaker 1: take on polling these days? Yeah, I'm with you. With

638
00:36:29,800 --> 00:36:34,800
Speaker 1: every election cycle, I um have less and less faith

639
00:36:35,000 --> 00:36:38,799
Speaker 1: in public polling. And one thing that we've just seen

640
00:36:38,840 --> 00:36:41,520
Speaker 1: consistently the last few cycles, but is that it does

641
00:36:41,560 --> 00:36:47,040
Speaker 1: seem to undercount or underestimate the support for Republican candidates,

642
00:36:47,360 --> 00:36:50,680
Speaker 1: UM and for Trump supporters because they are, you know,

643
00:36:50,760 --> 00:36:55,080
Speaker 1: less trusting of polsters. So, you know, we saw a massive,

644
00:36:55,560 --> 00:36:59,080
Speaker 1: massive difference between the public polls and and and the

645
00:36:59,080 --> 00:37:03,480
Speaker 1: actual results in places like Ohio and Wisconsin, UM and

646
00:37:03,560 --> 00:37:06,359
Speaker 1: even in Michigan it was a little bit less of that.

647
00:37:06,440 --> 00:37:10,480
Speaker 1: But um and that makes me really concerned because in

648
00:37:10,600 --> 00:37:13,480
Speaker 1: Ohio and wisconsinent it looks like those Senate races are

649
00:37:13,520 --> 00:37:16,479
Speaker 1: going away from us, but the Michigan you still see

650
00:37:16,840 --> 00:37:19,880
Speaker 1: sort of healthy leads for Regretchen Whitmer there um and

651
00:37:20,000 --> 00:37:22,000
Speaker 1: some of the candidates there. But it does make me

652
00:37:22,120 --> 00:37:24,960
Speaker 1: concern that we are sort of missing the picture here.

653
00:37:25,239 --> 00:37:28,319
Speaker 1: Then add in with that, you have these completely out

654
00:37:28,400 --> 00:37:30,799
Speaker 1: of left field polls where you see the Democrat up

655
00:37:30,800 --> 00:37:34,400
Speaker 1: by one point in the gubernatorial race in Oklahoma, or

656
00:37:34,480 --> 00:37:37,920
Speaker 1: where you see leave zeld In within four points of

657
00:37:38,280 --> 00:37:41,680
Speaker 1: um Kathy Hokel in a poll today. And if you

658
00:37:41,719 --> 00:37:45,279
Speaker 1: put too much faith in polls, you might die of whiplash.

659
00:37:45,880 --> 00:37:47,800
Speaker 1: You know, we did an episode of Hacks on Tap

660
00:37:47,880 --> 00:37:51,000
Speaker 1: with a PhD Republican Polls to Is said, you know,

661
00:37:51,280 --> 00:37:54,880
Speaker 1: polling isn't what it used to be. The science of

662
00:37:54,920 --> 00:37:57,560
Speaker 1: it is very strong. You get a random sample of voters,

663
00:37:57,960 --> 00:38:01,239
Speaker 1: it's it's it's very telling. But two problems. One is

664
00:38:01,280 --> 00:38:03,160
Speaker 1: it's hard to get a random sampling more because nobody

665
00:38:03,160 --> 00:38:06,120
Speaker 1: answer their phone, so you have to do internet panels.

666
00:38:06,120 --> 00:38:08,839
Speaker 1: You have to text people there. It's called multimodel. It's

667
00:38:08,880 --> 00:38:11,600
Speaker 1: the best we've got now, but it's trickier. The other

668
00:38:11,640 --> 00:38:15,480
Speaker 1: problem is most people totally misunderstand polling. They use it

669
00:38:15,520 --> 00:38:18,839
Speaker 1: like a therapy animal. Oh my side's ahead, we're gonna win.

670
00:38:18,920 --> 00:38:21,359
Speaker 1: I feel good. Oh no, new Pole New York Times

671
00:38:21,360 --> 00:38:23,680
Speaker 1: says we're gonna lose. I feel bad. Must be something

672
00:38:23,719 --> 00:38:27,360
Speaker 1: wrong with that poll. The polls are terrible a projecting forward.

673
00:38:27,760 --> 00:38:30,400
Speaker 1: What political consultants use polls for is to take the

674
00:38:30,480 --> 00:38:32,920
Speaker 1: voter's head apart to figure out what new information we

675
00:38:32,960 --> 00:38:36,040
Speaker 1: can inject into the campaign dialogue, to try to get

676
00:38:36,040 --> 00:38:38,400
Speaker 1: a future outcome, to move our way. Who you're going

677
00:38:38,480 --> 00:38:40,160
Speaker 1: to vote for is the rear view mirror. You can

678
00:38:40,160 --> 00:38:41,919
Speaker 1: figure out who would have won an election that didn't

679
00:38:41,960 --> 00:38:45,480
Speaker 1: exist a week ago, and then that that stupid question.

680
00:38:45,520 --> 00:38:48,359
Speaker 1: The media loves of the generic ballot, which we will

681
00:38:48,400 --> 00:38:52,640
Speaker 1: vote for Congress nationally, so that's misleading. But again the

682
00:38:53,280 --> 00:38:56,279
Speaker 1: media business. Polling is the only time where the media

683
00:38:56,280 --> 00:38:58,840
Speaker 1: will create a story by buying a poll, often a crappy,

684
00:38:58,920 --> 00:39:02,960
Speaker 1: cheap one, and report that news. So people need to

685
00:39:03,000 --> 00:39:05,719
Speaker 1: like relax. I was gonna say it feels like the

686
00:39:05,800 --> 00:39:09,759
Speaker 1: media is being really irresponsible and tend it and its

687
00:39:09,880 --> 00:39:13,000
Speaker 1: reliance off these polls, Right, Brian, I would say there

688
00:39:13,000 --> 00:39:15,720
Speaker 1: are two additional problems, and I totally agree with you, Katie.

689
00:39:16,200 --> 00:39:21,600
Speaker 1: Um one is under accounting non college educated voters who

690
00:39:21,680 --> 00:39:26,080
Speaker 1: have become very skeptical about all sorts of institutions, including

691
00:39:26,080 --> 00:39:29,800
Speaker 1: the press, including posters, in part because they've been trained

692
00:39:29,800 --> 00:39:33,399
Speaker 1: by Trump to be that way. He's quite open about that.

693
00:39:34,280 --> 00:39:39,680
Speaker 1: But second, um more optimistically, from a democratic perspective, you

694
00:39:39,719 --> 00:39:43,040
Speaker 1: could see a different composition of the electorate. Mike and

695
00:39:43,120 --> 00:39:47,120
Speaker 1: Liz were alluding to this earlier because of Row, because

696
00:39:47,160 --> 00:39:50,080
Speaker 1: of other factors that make this election potentially a little

697
00:39:50,080 --> 00:39:53,560
Speaker 1: bit different than normal. You could see greater numbers of

698
00:39:53,640 --> 00:39:57,960
Speaker 1: young people, of Democrats, of African Americans than typically shows

699
00:39:58,080 --> 00:40:01,720
Speaker 1: up for a mid term election, and that could change

700
00:40:01,960 --> 00:40:05,680
Speaker 1: the modeling behind a lot of this polling. This polling

701
00:40:06,120 --> 00:40:09,840
Speaker 1: is often built on assumptions about likely voters. Yeah, you

702
00:40:09,880 --> 00:40:11,919
Speaker 1: never want to trust that. When they say this poll

703
00:40:12,000 --> 00:40:15,200
Speaker 1: is likely voters, it sounds better. It's actually much worse

704
00:40:15,400 --> 00:40:18,120
Speaker 1: because the poster has made arbitrary choices about who's going

705
00:40:18,160 --> 00:40:20,920
Speaker 1: to vote, and they don't really know. They don't know,

706
00:40:21,040 --> 00:40:23,560
Speaker 1: they don't know that. The hardest thing that they should

707
00:40:23,560 --> 00:40:25,279
Speaker 1: and the good ones work on, is get a true

708
00:40:25,360 --> 00:40:29,000
Speaker 1: random sample of based on history, the most likely electorate

709
00:40:29,400 --> 00:40:31,719
Speaker 1: and then they can ask some trick questions about what

710
00:40:31,840 --> 00:40:33,920
Speaker 1: data is the election or who are you going to

711
00:40:34,040 --> 00:40:36,680
Speaker 1: vote for? Without given names that they can name the candidate,

712
00:40:36,760 --> 00:40:39,560
Speaker 1: then you know they're engaged in So there's some some

713
00:40:39,640 --> 00:40:43,200
Speaker 1: trickery to it. But polling is still very helpful to

714
00:40:43,320 --> 00:40:45,640
Speaker 1: run a campaign. But if you want to look at

715
00:40:45,640 --> 00:40:47,719
Speaker 1: a poll today and decide who's gonna win all the

716
00:40:47,800 --> 00:40:52,640
Speaker 1: elections and decide whether you feel good or bad, it helps,

717
00:40:52,719 --> 00:40:55,200
Speaker 1: but it can't really do that for you. History is

718
00:40:55,239 --> 00:40:59,919
Speaker 1: the best guide of how people vote. After the break,

719
00:41:00,080 --> 00:41:03,480
Speaker 1: we're going to dig into some very juicy state races.

720
00:41:16,320 --> 00:41:18,839
Speaker 1: Let's talk to Georgia and Mike. You can also talk

721
00:41:18,840 --> 00:41:22,000
Speaker 1: about any state you're interested in, but let's talk about

722
00:41:22,000 --> 00:41:26,440
Speaker 1: Georgia because it is crazy. I mean a herschel Walker,

723
00:41:27,160 --> 00:41:31,120
Speaker 1: I mean Raphael Warnock. Go ahead, just have at it, guys.

724
00:41:31,560 --> 00:41:34,600
Speaker 1: Well you think this is crazy, wait till herschel Walker

725
00:41:34,640 --> 00:41:36,919
Speaker 1: wins and Trump starts talking about him as the leading

726
00:41:37,000 --> 00:41:40,960
Speaker 1: VP candidate. There will be lines outside psychiatrists office for

727
00:41:41,120 --> 00:41:44,040
Speaker 1: miles in the East and West coast. Um. You know,

728
00:41:44,080 --> 00:41:45,759
Speaker 1: Georgia is going to be a runoff. We get to

729
00:41:45,800 --> 00:41:47,960
Speaker 1: do this thing again. They have a Loft, you don't

730
00:41:47,960 --> 00:41:50,799
Speaker 1: get the fifty and there's a libertarian running, so it's

731
00:41:50,840 --> 00:41:55,040
Speaker 1: quite likely we have the whole Senate or one extra

732
00:41:55,120 --> 00:41:59,560
Speaker 1: vote decided in early December, not even on election day.

733
00:41:59,600 --> 00:42:03,920
Speaker 1: But Herschel's the classic boxing Hammers candidate. In a wave,

734
00:42:04,200 --> 00:42:08,239
Speaker 1: he can win. Uh, and so he's got I saw this.

735
00:42:08,920 --> 00:42:12,520
Speaker 1: You know with other candidates, when you're wildly credentialed in

736
00:42:12,640 --> 00:42:15,959
Speaker 1: something outside politics and people are in a wrong track

737
00:42:16,000 --> 00:42:18,800
Speaker 1: collection and hate politics, they give you a lot of leeway.

738
00:42:19,040 --> 00:42:21,920
Speaker 1: You mean, the fact that he's an honorary police officer,

739
00:42:22,000 --> 00:42:24,680
Speaker 1: is that what you're leading to. I'll tell you. I'll

740
00:42:24,680 --> 00:42:28,520
Speaker 1: tell you. Everybody's laughing about the toy badge, But if

741
00:42:28,560 --> 00:42:31,040
Speaker 1: you deconstruct that to that election and that electorate, and

742
00:42:31,040 --> 00:42:34,800
Speaker 1: I've worked statewide in Georgia, that bad said I like cops,

743
00:42:35,760 --> 00:42:38,799
Speaker 1: and that's not bad for Georgia cannidate to have be

744
00:42:39,080 --> 00:42:42,040
Speaker 1: the worst moment. That debate was not Walkers. Walker did better.

745
00:42:42,600 --> 00:42:45,320
Speaker 1: You know, he was mediocre, but Warnock was so bad.

746
00:42:45,840 --> 00:42:48,400
Speaker 1: When Warnock can't answer if he's for Joe Biden or not,

747
00:42:48,560 --> 00:42:50,520
Speaker 1: come on, we all know he's for Joe Biden. It's

748
00:42:50,560 --> 00:42:53,520
Speaker 1: okay to say it, but he won't answer. He becomes

749
00:42:53,520 --> 00:42:58,399
Speaker 1: a politician and Walker's the simple guy sat Biden groceries. Yes,

750
00:42:59,080 --> 00:43:01,399
Speaker 1: Walker had a better or debate, the deserved and we're

751
00:43:01,440 --> 00:43:03,960
Speaker 1: not getting awful debate. It was a draw and it

752
00:43:04,000 --> 00:43:06,120
Speaker 1: should have been a wipeout. And I can even argue

753
00:43:06,480 --> 00:43:08,120
Speaker 1: net Net. I think herschel is going to be a

754
00:43:08,160 --> 00:43:10,239
Speaker 1: little higher in the polling this week because I think

755
00:43:10,239 --> 00:43:14,120
Speaker 1: he came out of it better than even Yeah, and

756
00:43:14,200 --> 00:43:18,560
Speaker 1: he partially benefited from the expectations being set so low.

757
00:43:18,960 --> 00:43:21,000
Speaker 1: He did a good job of setting them low, but

758
00:43:21,120 --> 00:43:23,680
Speaker 1: Democrats did a good job of doing it for him,

759
00:43:23,840 --> 00:43:26,279
Speaker 1: and I think that was a mistake going into this.

760
00:43:26,360 --> 00:43:29,080
Speaker 1: And I think all along to some extent that Democrats

761
00:43:29,120 --> 00:43:34,880
Speaker 1: have underestimated uh Herschel Walker's appeal. But what about the

762
00:43:34,960 --> 00:43:40,080
Speaker 1: hypocrisy of being anti abortion and and you know, saying

763
00:43:40,120 --> 00:43:42,960
Speaker 1: that was his check Do people just not care? I

764
00:43:43,000 --> 00:43:45,760
Speaker 1: think people care about where you stand on an issue.

765
00:43:45,800 --> 00:43:48,960
Speaker 1: I think less and less over time people care about hypocrisy.

766
00:43:49,120 --> 00:43:52,680
Speaker 1: So for if you're a Republican voter, you care about

767
00:43:53,160 --> 00:43:55,359
Speaker 1: keeping the Senate. What you care about is the fact

768
00:43:55,400 --> 00:43:57,759
Speaker 1: that Herschel Walker is saying the right things to you

769
00:43:57,840 --> 00:44:00,320
Speaker 1: now on abortion. Whatever he didn't his path us, I

770
00:44:00,320 --> 00:44:02,400
Speaker 1: don't think it matters that much to him. I know

771
00:44:02,440 --> 00:44:05,080
Speaker 1: people are saying it could help around the margins with

772
00:44:05,800 --> 00:44:09,400
Speaker 1: UM swing voters, and and maybe that's possible, but I

773
00:44:09,440 --> 00:44:11,920
Speaker 1: think it's an election like where so many people already

774
00:44:11,920 --> 00:44:13,759
Speaker 1: have their minds made up that it's not going to

775
00:44:13,920 --> 00:44:17,280
Speaker 1: change a lot of minds on herschel Walker and others

776
00:44:17,800 --> 00:44:20,120
Speaker 1: for you to disagree. But I think the other interesting

777
00:44:20,160 --> 00:44:23,520
Speaker 1: thing that I'm looking at in Georgia is do split

778
00:44:23,640 --> 00:44:28,359
Speaker 1: ticket voters still exist? Because we're seeing very different polling

779
00:44:28,360 --> 00:44:31,040
Speaker 1: embers in the gubnatorial race from what we're seeing in

780
00:44:31,040 --> 00:44:34,480
Speaker 1: the Senate race where Brian Camp has a very healthy

781
00:44:34,640 --> 00:44:38,600
Speaker 1: lead over Stacy Abrams. And in recent years we've really

782
00:44:38,640 --> 00:44:42,160
Speaker 1: seen drop off in split ticket voters. So we fascinating

783
00:44:42,200 --> 00:44:45,520
Speaker 1: to see if how many people in Georgia are willing

784
00:44:45,960 --> 00:44:50,040
Speaker 1: to cast a ballot, you know, for Camp, but then

785
00:44:50,080 --> 00:44:53,680
Speaker 1: also for war Knock. My guess is not as many

786
00:44:53,719 --> 00:44:55,920
Speaker 1: as we're seeing in the polling right now, But that

787
00:44:56,080 --> 00:44:58,320
Speaker 1: is something that I think matters a lot for the

788
00:44:58,560 --> 00:45:02,400
Speaker 1: future of partisan politics in the country. Yeah, that's interesting

789
00:45:02,440 --> 00:45:05,240
Speaker 1: because I've been reading Brian a lot about people voting

790
00:45:05,280 --> 00:45:09,840
Speaker 1: for Josh Shapiro in Pennsylvania and then memot Oz for

791
00:45:10,040 --> 00:45:13,080
Speaker 1: Senate when you're talking about like the memot Oz is

792
00:45:13,120 --> 00:45:15,560
Speaker 1: gaining ground and I want to talk about that race

793
00:45:15,600 --> 00:45:18,440
Speaker 1: now because that to me is so fascinating on so

794
00:45:18,520 --> 00:45:24,080
Speaker 1: many different levels. Um, what do you think Georgia Pennsylvania

795
00:45:24,320 --> 00:45:28,239
Speaker 1: to break up your Yeah, that's okay, I'm used to it. Yeah,

796
00:45:28,640 --> 00:45:33,759
Speaker 1: we worked together a long time, So go ahead. I

797
00:45:33,800 --> 00:45:36,719
Speaker 1: would say, I think Warnock has got a hope that

798
00:45:36,800 --> 00:45:40,799
Speaker 1: he hits fifty in November because I think December, and

799
00:45:40,840 --> 00:45:43,319
Speaker 1: I'm not sure if Mike and Liz agree, is very

800
00:45:43,400 --> 00:45:48,239
Speaker 1: dangerous for him because in December it becomes potentially a

801
00:45:48,239 --> 00:45:51,160
Speaker 1: fight over who controls the Senate. And I think a

802
00:45:51,200 --> 00:45:54,440
Speaker 1: lot of voters could hold their noses and vote for

803
00:45:54,520 --> 00:45:59,440
Speaker 1: Walker because in a generic ballot kind of election, they

804
00:45:59,440 --> 00:46:03,360
Speaker 1: would perfor a Republican control over Democratic control in Georgia. Also,

805
00:46:03,480 --> 00:46:05,879
Speaker 1: lower turnout in the arms will spell blood and they

806
00:46:05,920 --> 00:46:09,880
Speaker 1: turn out m all right, Well, let's move to Pennsylvania,

807
00:46:09,960 --> 00:46:12,920
Speaker 1: because a lot of people are saying in Pennsylvania to

808
00:46:13,000 --> 00:46:15,319
Speaker 1: your point, Liz about Georgia, it also might be a

809
00:46:15,320 --> 00:46:18,719
Speaker 1: split ticket with people voting for Josh Shapiro and Memotaz.

810
00:46:19,040 --> 00:46:22,359
Speaker 1: Let's talk about that race. John Fetterman, I've been fascinated

811
00:46:22,400 --> 00:46:26,239
Speaker 1: by this by the NBC political correspondent saying that he

812
00:46:26,280 --> 00:46:29,840
Speaker 1: didn't understand sort of the small talk and he uses

813
00:46:30,000 --> 00:46:33,960
Speaker 1: I guess a teleprompter to help with some of the

814
00:46:33,960 --> 00:46:38,239
Speaker 1: auditory issues caused by his stroke. Um. That has been

815
00:46:38,239 --> 00:46:42,000
Speaker 1: a fascinating race. Also, I know Memotas and talking about

816
00:46:42,120 --> 00:46:45,359
Speaker 1: crude detaise at the grocery store, which is almost like

817
00:46:45,560 --> 00:46:49,879
Speaker 1: Obama talking about a rugala, right, and um, so what's

818
00:46:49,920 --> 00:46:52,520
Speaker 1: happening there? How do you see this all shaking out?

819
00:46:52,600 --> 00:46:55,279
Speaker 1: Who wants to take that? Well? You know what's fascinating

820
00:46:55,480 --> 00:46:58,480
Speaker 1: is today I saw a brand new ad that Oz

821
00:46:58,520 --> 00:47:02,360
Speaker 1: put up um in which he says, or the voice

822
00:47:02,360 --> 00:47:06,719
Speaker 1: over says, John Vetterman is not like Josh Shapiro. He

823
00:47:06,840 --> 00:47:10,600
Speaker 1: is extreme on crime. So Oz is making an explicit

824
00:47:11,200 --> 00:47:15,200
Speaker 1: play for Shapiro voters and basically throwing mass Triano under

825
00:47:15,239 --> 00:47:18,360
Speaker 1: the bus by pumping up Shapiro as being good and

826
00:47:18,440 --> 00:47:23,760
Speaker 1: reasonable on criminal justice matters and crime. So Oz really

827
00:47:23,760 --> 00:47:26,200
Speaker 1: sees sort of his fate as tied to getting some

828
00:47:26,280 --> 00:47:31,040
Speaker 1: of those split ticket voters like suburban women, Liz, Yeah, exactly,

829
00:47:31,239 --> 00:47:35,600
Speaker 1: like people who might have concerns about Vetterman being too

830
00:47:35,640 --> 00:47:39,279
Speaker 1: progressive on criminal justice issues, and so it was talking

831
00:47:39,280 --> 00:47:42,560
Speaker 1: about his votes on the parole board. But there also

832
00:47:42,800 --> 00:47:45,840
Speaker 1: is this factor about Vetterman's health, and I think some

833
00:47:45,960 --> 00:47:48,960
Speaker 1: of it, some of the criticisms are fair, some are unfair,

834
00:47:49,000 --> 00:47:52,720
Speaker 1: but again, we can't tell voters what they care about.

835
00:47:53,280 --> 00:47:56,640
Speaker 1: And the debate that's coming up is gonna be really, really,

836
00:47:56,680 --> 00:48:00,320
Speaker 1: really important, um and more important than your average debate

837
00:48:00,400 --> 00:48:02,680
Speaker 1: because the voters are going to be looking to see

838
00:48:03,080 --> 00:48:05,920
Speaker 1: Ken John Fetterman perform in a way that gives me

839
00:48:05,960 --> 00:48:09,600
Speaker 1: the confidence in his ability to perform for me as

840
00:48:09,640 --> 00:48:12,319
Speaker 1: a U S. Senator. And that's why I don't think

841
00:48:12,360 --> 00:48:15,279
Speaker 1: that the their decision to do the NBC interview was

842
00:48:16,000 --> 00:48:18,600
Speaker 1: that much of a disaster. You know, I know feelings

843
00:48:18,600 --> 00:48:21,440
Speaker 1: are split on it, but it could also be a

844
00:48:21,520 --> 00:48:25,920
Speaker 1: dynamic like we saw in Georgia where Republicans Walker Democrats

845
00:48:26,239 --> 00:48:29,480
Speaker 1: lowered the expectations so much for Walker that you know,

846
00:48:29,560 --> 00:48:32,280
Speaker 1: if you could just speak in complete sentences, it's basically

847
00:48:32,360 --> 00:48:34,640
Speaker 1: a win. And we might see that dynamic for a

848
00:48:34,640 --> 00:48:37,320
Speaker 1: Fetterman in the upcoming. Yeah, sort of like Sarah Palent.

849
00:48:37,400 --> 00:48:39,799
Speaker 1: Sarah Palment did well in that debate because she was

850
00:48:39,840 --> 00:48:44,080
Speaker 1: so underestimated and can I call you Joe? And she

851
00:48:44,239 --> 00:48:46,680
Speaker 1: was stim in the trees, but she was able to

852
00:48:46,800 --> 00:48:48,839
Speaker 1: do you know, as long as her head didn't spin

853
00:48:48,880 --> 00:48:51,640
Speaker 1: around and she didn't vomit. You know that people thought

854
00:48:51,680 --> 00:48:55,800
Speaker 1: she was pretty good exactly. You know, ads though Fetterman

855
00:48:55,960 --> 00:48:59,200
Speaker 1: is getting killed by what we call the second look

856
00:48:59,239 --> 00:49:02,279
Speaker 1: in politic. He had some rocket fuell, he kept going

857
00:49:02,360 --> 00:49:04,960
Speaker 1: and people take the final look. This stroke has been

858
00:49:05,000 --> 00:49:07,480
Speaker 1: a problem. Now. I think the Federman campaign could have

859
00:49:07,480 --> 00:49:10,360
Speaker 1: done a better job of making him rocky in the

860
00:49:10,400 --> 00:49:12,960
Speaker 1: whole state rooting for him on the stroke instead of

861
00:49:13,000 --> 00:49:15,880
Speaker 1: being guarded about it. They've they've kind of changed that up.

862
00:49:15,920 --> 00:49:18,640
Speaker 1: They've been in a DRD campaign otherwise. And the other

863
00:49:18,640 --> 00:49:20,520
Speaker 1: problem is the crime record. You know, there are two

864
00:49:20,600 --> 00:49:23,879
Speaker 1: kinds of democratic crime records. They're kind of moderate ones

865
00:49:23,920 --> 00:49:26,719
Speaker 1: that are probably just gonna manufacture some trouble about and

866
00:49:26,760 --> 00:49:29,800
Speaker 1: there's pretty hardcore stuff where they actually mean the liberal

867
00:49:29,800 --> 00:49:32,200
Speaker 1: point of view and crime and voters aren't there and

868
00:49:32,239 --> 00:49:34,480
Speaker 1: the Republicans kill him with it. That's what happened in

869
00:49:34,480 --> 00:49:38,160
Speaker 1: Wisconsin with Mandela Barnes, and it's happening now to Fetterman.

870
00:49:38,239 --> 00:49:40,880
Speaker 1: So you're gonna have a debate where the question that

871
00:49:40,920 --> 00:49:44,560
Speaker 1: I think Federman can navigate with low expectations is the

872
00:49:44,600 --> 00:49:47,560
Speaker 1: stroke issue. But Oz made a living on TV and

873
00:49:47,600 --> 00:49:51,560
Speaker 1: he's really he's caught something on this crime stuff. It's real,

874
00:49:52,400 --> 00:49:56,239
Speaker 1: and you know it. Democrats get uncomfortable. All those Republicans again,

875
00:49:56,239 --> 00:49:59,200
Speaker 1: well they they scored here because there's real stuff. He's

876
00:49:59,200 --> 00:50:01,760
Speaker 1: got felons working on his campaign because he's a very

877
00:50:01,800 --> 00:50:04,040
Speaker 1: progressive guy on that. You know, you can argue the policy,

878
00:50:04,120 --> 00:50:06,880
Speaker 1: maybe he's right, but the voters of Pennsylvania in the

879
00:50:06,960 --> 00:50:11,200
Speaker 1: suburbs and other areas excurbs aren't there, and harden the

880
00:50:11,280 --> 00:50:14,760
Speaker 1: campaign to tell people they're wrong. This is another argument

881
00:50:14,800 --> 00:50:20,960
Speaker 1: for vigorously contested primaries in Pennsylvania and in Wisconsin. Fetterman

882
00:50:21,000 --> 00:50:24,440
Speaker 1: and Barnes didn't really have a back and forth with

883
00:50:24,480 --> 00:50:30,239
Speaker 1: their opponents about their vulnerabilities. Those were both positive elections

884
00:50:30,320 --> 00:50:34,320
Speaker 1: and campaigns, and it would have served Democratic voters better

885
00:50:34,880 --> 00:50:37,799
Speaker 1: if this stuff could have been litigated earlier, if we

886
00:50:38,080 --> 00:50:40,800
Speaker 1: could have seen how Barnes and Fetterman would have held

887
00:50:40,920 --> 00:50:45,239
Speaker 1: up on those issues, you know, six months ago rather

888
00:50:45,280 --> 00:50:49,000
Speaker 1: than a couple of weeks before the election. The Wisconsin candidate.

889
00:50:50,040 --> 00:50:52,560
Speaker 1: I think either of them would have been much stronger.

890
00:50:53,320 --> 00:50:56,480
Speaker 1: Barnes was. That was madness in their primary to do

891
00:50:56,520 --> 00:51:00,279
Speaker 1: what they did politically. What's also madness is that Rman

892
00:51:00,640 --> 00:51:03,719
Speaker 1: and Barnes's campaigns didn't see these attacks coming from a

893
00:51:03,800 --> 00:51:08,080
Speaker 1: mile away. UM smart candidates like Tim Ryan in Ohio,

894
00:51:08,520 --> 00:51:10,839
Speaker 1: where even if you look at Cheryl Beasley in North

895
00:51:10,840 --> 00:51:16,120
Speaker 1: Carolina or Val Demming's in Florida, they knew that Republicans

896
00:51:16,200 --> 00:51:18,920
Speaker 1: were gonna come back with the defund the police playbook,

897
00:51:19,239 --> 00:51:22,120
Speaker 1: and they made sure over the summer to run ads

898
00:51:22,320 --> 00:51:26,440
Speaker 1: featuring UM sheriffs or you know, cops whatever, directed camera

899
00:51:26,800 --> 00:51:30,200
Speaker 1: talking about how each of these candidates would be tough

900
00:51:30,239 --> 00:51:34,040
Speaker 1: on crime and UM. Neither Fetterman nor Barnes did that

901
00:51:34,160 --> 00:51:39,200
Speaker 1: even when they arguably had or inarguably had the worst

902
00:51:39,480 --> 00:51:42,000
Speaker 1: negatives on these issues. And the fact that they didn't

903
00:51:42,040 --> 00:51:45,479
Speaker 1: prepare for that is malpractice. Well, let's since you bring

904
00:51:45,480 --> 00:51:49,600
Speaker 1: them up. Easiley and Demeans. Are they both gonna lose?

905
00:51:50,719 --> 00:51:54,320
Speaker 1: Probably they're both in striking distance. But this year I

906
00:51:54,320 --> 00:51:57,279
Speaker 1: would bet against both of them easily. I think has

907
00:51:57,320 --> 00:52:00,520
Speaker 1: a slightly better shot based on data I've seen, including

908
00:52:00,520 --> 00:52:03,840
Speaker 1: public polls and demings in Florida. I think Florida is

909
00:52:03,880 --> 00:52:08,640
Speaker 1: going to be very, very tough. North Carolina these days, interestingly,

910
00:52:08,800 --> 00:52:12,800
Speaker 1: is a little bit tighter. But I think given where

911
00:52:12,840 --> 00:52:15,839
Speaker 1: this is headed, I I don't disagree with Mike, so

912
00:52:15,920 --> 00:52:18,399
Speaker 1: can I plug one last race for a quake. I'm

913
00:52:18,440 --> 00:52:21,040
Speaker 1: doing the superpack on this one because he's a friend

914
00:52:21,040 --> 00:52:22,960
Speaker 1: of mine and it's an amazing race, which is the

915
00:52:23,080 --> 00:52:28,120
Speaker 1: Utah Senate race. You have Evan McMullen, Republican hill staffer,

916
00:52:28,280 --> 00:52:32,759
Speaker 1: former CIA Clandestine Services agent, running as an independent, with

917
00:52:32,800 --> 00:52:37,799
Speaker 1: this amazing kind of republic crat coalition of independence Democrats,

918
00:52:37,800 --> 00:52:41,480
Speaker 1: and a significant amount of Republicans running against Republican incumbent

919
00:52:41,520 --> 00:52:43,279
Speaker 1: Mike Lee, who had been in trouble. He had a

920
00:52:43,320 --> 00:52:46,920
Speaker 1: primary thirty nine percent of the state Republicans voted against him.

921
00:52:46,920 --> 00:52:49,680
Speaker 1: This thing is neck and neck. It's not being noticed,

922
00:52:49,800 --> 00:52:52,960
Speaker 1: McMullan says, and he means it. I will not caucus

923
00:52:52,960 --> 00:52:56,640
Speaker 1: with Schumer or McConnell. I will be truly independent in

924
00:52:56,680 --> 00:52:59,360
Speaker 1: the Senate, and of course, the Club for Growth and

925
00:52:59,440 --> 00:53:01,680
Speaker 1: all the super pacts on the hard our side are

926
00:53:01,719 --> 00:53:04,440
Speaker 1: going after him, but he's gone from seventeen behind you

927
00:53:04,560 --> 00:53:06,840
Speaker 1: with margin of air race. It's really kind of amazing

928
00:53:07,480 --> 00:53:09,919
Speaker 1: and it's a real Mr Smith thing, and we'll see

929
00:53:09,960 --> 00:53:13,000
Speaker 1: if it can survive the hatchets flying through the air

930
00:53:13,080 --> 00:53:16,319
Speaker 1: right now. But um, it's the only time I've seen

931
00:53:16,360 --> 00:53:19,920
Speaker 1: a genuine hybrid candidacy with a lot of support from

932
00:53:20,000 --> 00:53:22,920
Speaker 1: all three parties, not just two and a label. And

933
00:53:23,000 --> 00:53:25,319
Speaker 1: we'll see what happens. It's going to be fascinating. Yeah,

934
00:53:25,400 --> 00:53:27,480
Speaker 1: we'll keep an eye on that. Well. Donors need to

935
00:53:27,480 --> 00:53:30,280
Speaker 1: pay more attention to races in the Pacific and Mountain

936
00:53:30,360 --> 00:53:32,840
Speaker 1: time zones. Um, they have a little bit of the

937
00:53:32,840 --> 00:53:35,520
Speaker 1: same problem that the New York d C Press does

938
00:53:35,680 --> 00:53:40,000
Speaker 1: in covering races across the whole country that is critical

939
00:53:40,400 --> 00:53:44,439
Speaker 1: to holding the Senate. Utah is a really fascinating race

940
00:53:44,520 --> 00:53:47,839
Speaker 1: for the pro democracy cause, and so I think these

941
00:53:47,880 --> 00:53:50,879
Speaker 1: things are really worth focusing on. And you were saying

942
00:53:50,880 --> 00:53:56,360
Speaker 1: Nevada earlier that the Democratic incumbent senator is likely to

943
00:53:56,480 --> 00:53:59,600
Speaker 1: lose to Paul lack salts On right. I think it's

944
00:53:59,719 --> 00:54:03,440
Speaker 1: very very close. Um, I'm not quite willing to go

945
00:54:03,680 --> 00:54:06,000
Speaker 1: as far as Mike can say that she's likely to lose.

946
00:54:06,080 --> 00:54:09,120
Speaker 1: I I think she could lose. I think, you know,

947
00:54:09,239 --> 00:54:14,480
Speaker 1: if the election were today, she might um. Nevada Democrats

948
00:54:14,520 --> 00:54:17,200
Speaker 1: have a history of pulling out these tough races over

949
00:54:17,239 --> 00:54:20,000
Speaker 1: the last ten years. We'll see if they can do

950
00:54:20,120 --> 00:54:23,399
Speaker 1: it this time. But part of the problem has been

951
00:54:24,040 --> 00:54:31,799
Speaker 1: extraordinary democratic deterioration among Latino voters who are not Latinos

952
00:54:31,840 --> 00:54:35,600
Speaker 1: in Florida are very different than Latinos in Arizona, and

953
00:54:35,640 --> 00:54:39,600
Speaker 1: even within these states, you know, Dominicans are different than Nicaraguans.

954
00:54:39,680 --> 00:54:42,120
Speaker 1: And I mean these are all individual voters, but I

955
00:54:42,160 --> 00:54:46,120
Speaker 1: think we can make some generalizations about a group that

956
00:54:47,160 --> 00:54:50,319
Speaker 1: Democrats considered part of their base. Remember all the talk

957
00:54:50,360 --> 00:54:53,920
Speaker 1: about communities of color and black and brown voters, Well,

958
00:54:54,000 --> 00:54:59,600
Speaker 1: Latinos are not like black voters who vote for the

959
00:54:59,600 --> 00:55:06,160
Speaker 1: Democrat attic party, very very different, you know, history, political ideology,

960
00:55:06,239 --> 00:55:09,320
Speaker 1: and this could become a real crisis for the party.

961
00:55:09,640 --> 00:55:11,680
Speaker 1: And as much attention as it has gotten over the

962
00:55:11,760 --> 00:55:14,600
Speaker 1: last few weeks, is it is not enough? Well, it

963
00:55:14,680 --> 00:55:18,000
Speaker 1: got a lot of attention in Florida in right, because

964
00:55:18,040 --> 00:55:22,000
Speaker 1: they were very surprised how the Latino vote panned out.

965
00:55:22,040 --> 00:55:26,440
Speaker 1: In um, and so I think this is mental Texas

966
00:55:26,480 --> 00:55:31,320
Speaker 1: to ye, I mean the Damns always go to identity

967
00:55:31,320 --> 00:55:33,439
Speaker 1: with the Latino vote, whre the Republicans go of lunch

968
00:55:33,480 --> 00:55:37,680
Speaker 1: pale stuff, and was fastening about Nevada, that hugely powerful

969
00:55:37,760 --> 00:55:42,319
Speaker 1: Latino vote. There is also heavily unionized culinary workers in

970
00:55:42,360 --> 00:55:47,719
Speaker 1: Clark County, and that's helps the Democrats. Doesn't Harry the

971
00:55:47,760 --> 00:55:50,759
Speaker 1: old Harry Reid machine. But Harry's gone now and the

972
00:55:50,840 --> 00:55:53,000
Speaker 1: machine right now is not doing what it normally does.

973
00:55:53,080 --> 00:55:55,600
Speaker 1: It's one reason why I bet on Laxalt. But we're

974
00:55:55,640 --> 00:55:58,319
Speaker 1: seeing because there's some cross pressure there. We'll see if

975
00:55:58,320 --> 00:56:01,360
Speaker 1: the trend continues. I have to ask you about Arizona

976
00:56:01,400 --> 00:56:04,200
Speaker 1: real quickly. Blake Masters and Mark Kelly. I'm friendly with

977
00:56:04,239 --> 00:56:07,880
Speaker 1: Mark Kelly because I did a documentary about gun gun

978
00:56:08,000 --> 00:56:11,880
Speaker 1: violence and got to know Mark and Gabby pretty well.

979
00:56:12,040 --> 00:56:15,680
Speaker 1: And Blake Masters has kind of changed his website when

980
00:56:15,680 --> 00:56:20,000
Speaker 1: it came to his anti abortion policies. And is Mark

981
00:56:20,040 --> 00:56:23,520
Speaker 1: gonna win? I think yeah, I think he is. He's

982
00:56:23,600 --> 00:56:27,480
Speaker 1: running another really, really good campaign where he has separated

983
00:56:27,600 --> 00:56:30,719
Speaker 1: his brand a lot from the national one, and he's

984
00:56:30,760 --> 00:56:33,200
Speaker 1: sort of seen as his own person. He did a

985
00:56:33,280 --> 00:56:35,880
Speaker 1: really good job a couple of years ago separating himself

986
00:56:35,880 --> 00:56:39,160
Speaker 1: from Biden on the border. He's run ads. He's one

987
00:56:39,200 --> 00:56:41,240
Speaker 1: of those candidates who saw that to fund the police

988
00:56:41,239 --> 00:56:44,080
Speaker 1: ads coming from a while away, ran at about it.

989
00:56:44,120 --> 00:56:46,520
Speaker 1: I think how his mom was a police officer. But

990
00:56:46,640 --> 00:56:49,279
Speaker 1: has really gone out and run on the issues that

991
00:56:49,360 --> 00:56:53,200
Speaker 1: voters care about and making economic case, but also running

992
00:56:53,239 --> 00:56:55,719
Speaker 1: as Mark Kelly, not as a generic Democrat. And I

993
00:56:55,760 --> 00:56:58,279
Speaker 1: think that's been a really really smart tactic. And to

994
00:56:58,440 --> 00:57:01,920
Speaker 1: lose this point, he hasn't been rewhelmed by Republican money.

995
00:57:01,960 --> 00:57:05,799
Speaker 1: I think he's been an extraordinarily effective fundraiser. Masters has

996
00:57:05,800 --> 00:57:08,520
Speaker 1: had trouble kind of getting his act together, um, and

997
00:57:08,560 --> 00:57:11,880
Speaker 1: so the outside Republican groups are not coming in in

998
00:57:11,920 --> 00:57:13,960
Speaker 1: the same way. And part of that is some drama

999
00:57:14,000 --> 00:57:16,920
Speaker 1: between Peter Tiele and Donald Trump, which is an interesting

1000
00:57:16,960 --> 00:57:19,560
Speaker 1: soap opera. But the net result is I think Kelly

1001
00:57:19,720 --> 00:57:23,280
Speaker 1: is well positioned in that race. Yeah, Masters went out

1002
00:57:23,280 --> 00:57:25,840
Speaker 1: and picked a fight in a feud with Mitch McConnell,

1003
00:57:25,880 --> 00:57:28,120
Speaker 1: which would not be in my playbook for how to

1004
00:57:28,560 --> 00:57:31,480
Speaker 1: get help in a Senate race this year. Yeah, that

1005
00:57:31,520 --> 00:57:34,160
Speaker 1: was that. That was sort of weird and hard to understand.

1006
00:57:34,200 --> 00:57:37,880
Speaker 1: What about Stacy Abrams and Brian Camp Um. I heard

1007
00:57:37,920 --> 00:57:41,120
Speaker 1: you all say about the split ticket thing, and uh,

1008
00:57:41,240 --> 00:57:44,880
Speaker 1: what happened to the Abrams campaign? Well, I get a

1009
00:57:44,960 --> 00:57:47,480
Speaker 1: FOURK because I think she's done and it's an amazing

1010
00:57:47,520 --> 00:57:50,280
Speaker 1: story because she was at the top of the Democratic

1011
00:57:50,320 --> 00:57:53,320
Speaker 1: Party and made, in my view and not smart decision

1012
00:57:53,360 --> 00:57:56,160
Speaker 1: to try for her comeback in an off year in

1013
00:57:56,200 --> 00:57:59,200
Speaker 1: a state that can have a Republican wave. Now she's

1014
00:57:59,200 --> 00:58:01,120
Speaker 1: going to get be and she's going to drop to

1015
00:58:01,160 --> 00:58:03,600
Speaker 1: double a baseball in the Democratic Party when she could

1016
00:58:03,600 --> 00:58:06,560
Speaker 1: have if Biden doesn't run again, she could have been

1017
00:58:06,560 --> 00:58:10,440
Speaker 1: a contender. I think so, Uh, Camp is good, Paul,

1018
00:58:10,560 --> 00:58:12,840
Speaker 1: He's significantly ahead and it's going to stay that way

1019
00:58:13,040 --> 00:58:16,200
Speaker 1: in my view. What do you think happened, Brian? I

1020
00:58:16,240 --> 00:58:19,360
Speaker 1: think a lot of it is structural, As Mike says,

1021
00:58:19,800 --> 00:58:24,880
Speaker 1: if you're running in a purple uh slash reddish state

1022
00:58:25,440 --> 00:58:29,960
Speaker 1: in an off year against a popular incumbent, it's going

1023
00:58:30,000 --> 00:58:32,520
Speaker 1: to be very challenging, no matter how adroit you are

1024
00:58:32,560 --> 00:58:35,480
Speaker 1: as a candidate. Um. And then I think you know,

1025
00:58:35,560 --> 00:58:37,880
Speaker 1: she also made some mistakes over the last couple of

1026
00:58:37,960 --> 00:58:41,640
Speaker 1: years marketing herself a little bit more for a national

1027
00:58:41,680 --> 00:58:45,560
Speaker 1: Democratic audience and a little less for a Georgia Democratic audience.

1028
00:58:45,680 --> 00:58:47,400
Speaker 1: I mean, I don't think this is gonna be enough

1029
00:58:47,720 --> 00:58:51,240
Speaker 1: to save Betto in Texas. But I think since his

1030
00:58:51,320 --> 00:58:56,040
Speaker 1: presidential campaign, Betto has been very focused on a Texas

1031
00:58:56,040 --> 00:58:58,880
Speaker 1: specific message, and I think he took a little bit

1032
00:58:58,920 --> 00:59:02,720
Speaker 1: longer for Abrams to make that switch. I want you,

1033
00:59:02,840 --> 00:59:05,360
Speaker 1: I want to talk to you real quickly about Texas. Sorry,

1034
00:59:05,440 --> 00:59:07,840
Speaker 1: I'm not going to keep you guys all all afternoon,

1035
00:59:07,920 --> 00:59:12,520
Speaker 1: but Betto. I know Abvitt leads better or work for

1036
00:59:12,560 --> 00:59:16,120
Speaker 1: the Texas subernatorial race by four points in the latest

1037
00:59:16,160 --> 00:59:20,200
Speaker 1: pool that we can't believe. So is does Betto have

1038
00:59:20,280 --> 00:59:23,000
Speaker 1: a chance to pull it off? You think? I don't

1039
00:59:23,040 --> 00:59:26,400
Speaker 1: think so. I think that those last three to five

1040
00:59:26,520 --> 00:59:30,320
Speaker 1: points in Texas are like climbing Mount Everest for a Democrat.

1041
00:59:30,800 --> 00:59:35,320
Speaker 1: I think you know, Texas has been moving in a

1042
00:59:35,360 --> 00:59:39,480
Speaker 1: more competitive direction for a while, but I don't think

1043
00:59:39,520 --> 00:59:43,280
Speaker 1: it's going to happen this year. Stay with me, friends,

1044
00:59:43,440 --> 00:59:58,600
Speaker 1: because right after this we're tackling and Donald Trump before

1045
00:59:58,640 --> 01:00:03,520
Speaker 1: we go, Uh, you think that Trump is on the decline? Mike,

1046
01:00:03,560 --> 01:00:06,360
Speaker 1: I heard you say that, who do you think will

1047
01:00:06,440 --> 01:00:11,880
Speaker 1: run in is Fronto Santis, the rising star of the

1048
01:00:11,960 --> 01:00:16,120
Speaker 1: Republican Party. Well, de Santis is showing is possible to

1049
01:00:16,120 --> 01:00:19,760
Speaker 1: be a Trump alternative and survived the preseason if you're

1050
01:00:19,760 --> 01:00:22,120
Speaker 1: a cultural warrior and you can't be attacked as a

1051
01:00:22,200 --> 01:00:26,840
Speaker 1: squishy you know, moderate Reno Republican. So he's proving the

1052
01:00:26,880 --> 01:00:29,479
Speaker 1: case that there can be competition to Trump. He's pulling.

1053
01:00:29,600 --> 01:00:33,160
Speaker 1: Trump's getting about forty of vote in the primary right now.

1054
01:00:33,520 --> 01:00:35,320
Speaker 1: This Santus is hanging in there in the mid to

1055
01:00:35,400 --> 01:00:38,360
Speaker 1: high twenties in Florida where the Trump voters know both

1056
01:00:38,360 --> 01:00:41,120
Speaker 1: of them to Santis beats Trump. So it's just it's

1057
01:00:41,160 --> 01:00:43,200
Speaker 1: like a bad X ray. Oh, like, you know, you've

1058
01:00:43,200 --> 01:00:46,120
Speaker 1: got some bad Organs here. Now, does that mean Trump

1059
01:00:46,160 --> 01:00:49,760
Speaker 1: won't be the nominee. No, He's still formidable. But it's

1060
01:00:49,760 --> 01:00:51,720
Speaker 1: an interesting trend and there are others who will try

1061
01:00:51,760 --> 01:00:54,560
Speaker 1: to fill that void depending on how weak they think

1062
01:00:54,560 --> 01:00:58,160
Speaker 1: Trump is in six months. So stay tuned. Well, you

1063
01:00:58,200 --> 01:01:03,040
Speaker 1: know there's cruise of always try to run. Rubio always

1064
01:01:03,080 --> 01:01:06,720
Speaker 1: wants to run. You've got Josh Holly who kind of

1065
01:01:06,760 --> 01:01:09,440
Speaker 1: wants to be a new Trump. You've got Tom Cotton,

1066
01:01:09,560 --> 01:01:12,760
Speaker 1: Senator from Margaret They're both Arkansas, who's a slightly smarter

1067
01:01:12,920 --> 01:01:16,000
Speaker 1: version of Josh Holly. You've got Larry Hogan will be

1068
01:01:16,040 --> 01:01:18,960
Speaker 1: the great hero of the sensible wing of the party.

1069
01:01:19,280 --> 01:01:21,880
Speaker 1: I'm all form he'll get slaughtered. Well, I was gonna

1070
01:01:21,880 --> 01:01:25,240
Speaker 1: say he's he's he's very different than the other other

1071
01:01:25,320 --> 01:01:27,880
Speaker 1: people you mentioned. Yeah, he could upset New Hampshire and

1072
01:01:27,920 --> 01:01:32,160
Speaker 1: then get crushed. Um. You know. Unfortunately, you've got Adam

1073
01:01:32,240 --> 01:01:34,240
Speaker 1: Kinsinger I think may try to make a run at it.

1074
01:01:34,320 --> 01:01:37,480
Speaker 1: Mary Cheney may run. Excuse me, Liz Janey. Mary's no

1075
01:01:37,600 --> 01:01:40,919
Speaker 1: friend of mine, and so I always canfuse them. Uh,

1076
01:01:41,000 --> 01:01:43,640
Speaker 1: Liz may run just to drive Trump crazy at debates,

1077
01:01:44,240 --> 01:01:47,160
Speaker 1: but electorally, she won't have the votes in the primary.

1078
01:01:47,240 --> 01:01:49,600
Speaker 1: You might see it Dan Crenshaw the House, or somebody

1079
01:01:49,600 --> 01:01:52,560
Speaker 1: who's kind of unknown now but has some rocket fuel

1080
01:01:52,840 --> 01:01:56,520
Speaker 1: in them if they were paid attention to. So if

1081
01:01:56,520 --> 01:01:58,480
Speaker 1: Trump has seen this week, there will be no shortage.

1082
01:01:58,480 --> 01:02:00,480
Speaker 1: On the other hand, there will be tremendous pressure unified

1083
01:02:00,800 --> 01:02:03,880
Speaker 1: among one because in the plurality model like we had

1084
01:02:03,880 --> 01:02:07,000
Speaker 1: in the sixteen Trump can keep going if Trump decides

1085
01:02:07,040 --> 01:02:09,000
Speaker 1: to run, which he may not. And I would add

1086
01:02:09,000 --> 01:02:12,560
Speaker 1: two others. NICKI Haley and Tim Scott um who would

1087
01:02:12,560 --> 01:02:15,920
Speaker 1: be interesting because they're you know, they're not white guys

1088
01:02:16,320 --> 01:02:20,120
Speaker 1: and very smart, very ambitious, etcetera. Um, I think, as

1089
01:02:20,160 --> 01:02:24,640
Speaker 1: Mike just said, the challenge for the non Trump candidate is,

1090
01:02:24,680 --> 01:02:28,600
Speaker 1: even if he deteriorates to thirty five or um in

1091
01:02:28,680 --> 01:02:32,880
Speaker 1: the winner take all Republican primary world, that's how he

1092
01:02:32,960 --> 01:02:35,880
Speaker 1: won in sixteen without getting majority support in the party.

1093
01:02:36,120 --> 01:02:39,280
Speaker 1: That is easily how he could win again in twenty

1094
01:02:39,320 --> 01:02:43,920
Speaker 1: four and so um, you would need a unified, consolidated opposition.

1095
01:02:44,200 --> 01:02:47,200
Speaker 1: I agree, there's one wrinkle. I don't think Trump could

1096
01:02:47,240 --> 01:02:50,600
Speaker 1: take a defeat early like he could back then. And

1097
01:02:50,760 --> 01:02:52,520
Speaker 1: we'll see. But I think he's got more of a

1098
01:02:52,520 --> 01:02:56,880
Speaker 1: glass john now. Because yes, we're publican primary voters and Republicans.

1099
01:02:56,920 --> 01:02:59,920
Speaker 1: What do you think of Trump? Love? Should we nominate

1100
01:03:00,040 --> 01:03:03,200
Speaker 1: him again? Half walk away? No time for somebody new.

1101
01:03:03,280 --> 01:03:06,760
Speaker 1: That's the real purality in the party. So if if

1102
01:03:06,800 --> 01:03:09,439
Speaker 1: Trump gets caught and actually bleeds, I think it could

1103
01:03:09,480 --> 01:03:12,280
Speaker 1: fold inside itself pretty quickly. But a lot of ifs,

1104
01:03:12,720 --> 01:03:15,520
Speaker 1: you know, we'll see, he might be running from you know,

1105
01:03:16,480 --> 01:03:18,880
Speaker 1: being confined to a qualm set hut on an air

1106
01:03:18,920 --> 01:03:21,720
Speaker 1: base somewhere serving out a sentence. So, you know, a

1107
01:03:21,800 --> 01:03:24,919
Speaker 1: lot a lot of unknowns in the Republican world right now.

1108
01:03:25,160 --> 01:03:27,880
Speaker 1: And if Joe Biden doesn't run, and I know the

1109
01:03:28,520 --> 01:03:32,680
Speaker 1: conventional wisdom is he will right now, who will be

1110
01:03:32,920 --> 01:03:37,080
Speaker 1: the Democratic nominee? I mean, Kamala doesn't seem to enjoy

1111
01:03:37,240 --> 01:03:39,720
Speaker 1: much popularity and has kind of been in the witness

1112
01:03:39,760 --> 01:03:43,680
Speaker 1: protection program in some ways. And I mean, so who

1113
01:03:43,760 --> 01:03:47,560
Speaker 1: is this Who is the the person in the Democratic

1114
01:03:47,600 --> 01:03:50,240
Speaker 1: Party who is going to rise to the occasion. I

1115
01:03:50,280 --> 01:03:52,920
Speaker 1: don't know, but watch Whipner. I think that Joe Biden

1116
01:03:53,040 --> 01:03:55,960
Speaker 1: is going to run. But if he doesn't run, just

1117
01:03:56,760 --> 01:03:59,280
Speaker 1: I think it's really incumbent upon the party to have

1118
01:03:59,360 --> 01:04:03,320
Speaker 1: a big, vibrant primary and not just try to hand

1119
01:04:03,320 --> 01:04:05,920
Speaker 1: off the nomination of someone and look how at work

1120
01:04:05,960 --> 01:04:08,360
Speaker 1: for us. I think we did end up with the

1121
01:04:08,400 --> 01:04:11,600
Speaker 1: strongest candidate to run against Donald Trump and Joe Biden,

1122
01:04:12,160 --> 01:04:14,360
Speaker 1: And going forward, I think we should try to aim

1123
01:04:14,360 --> 01:04:17,560
Speaker 1: for that as a party and real quickly if the

1124
01:04:17,600 --> 01:04:22,680
Speaker 1: House and Senate both go Republican, you know, are they

1125
01:04:22,680 --> 01:04:25,920
Speaker 1: going to try to impeach Joe Biden? And for what

1126
01:04:26,080 --> 01:04:29,360
Speaker 1: I mean, I think the House guys will, well, they're

1127
01:04:29,440 --> 01:04:31,800
Speaker 1: played to their internal politics and there will be noise

1128
01:04:31,800 --> 01:04:36,520
Speaker 1: about Impeachingums. Ridiculous. What well, it's good for Biden. That's

1129
01:04:36,520 --> 01:04:38,400
Speaker 1: the one thing I could unify the party around. What

1130
01:04:38,480 --> 01:04:41,720
Speaker 1: are they and for being a Democrat? You know, all

1131
01:04:41,760 --> 01:04:44,840
Speaker 1: the sanity. We're a reality show here. You know, why

1132
01:04:44,880 --> 01:04:48,880
Speaker 1: did why did you know? Uh, Tawny throw the chair

1133
01:04:48,960 --> 01:04:51,320
Speaker 1: at Belinda because she was mad she wasn't invited to

1134
01:04:51,320 --> 01:04:53,600
Speaker 1: the cocktail party. I mean we've we've turned it into that,

1135
01:04:53,680 --> 01:04:58,560
Speaker 1: you know, um and watch watch Real Housewives. No, I hate.

1136
01:04:58,600 --> 01:05:00,920
Speaker 1: I want Andy Cohen to be brought up on charges

1137
01:05:00,960 --> 01:05:05,320
Speaker 1: for cultural crimes for what that world has created. My wife,

1138
01:05:05,360 --> 01:05:07,360
Speaker 1: of course watching it, and I hear coming down the hallway,

1139
01:05:07,560 --> 01:05:10,600
Speaker 1: my daughters watch it, and I'm like, girls, you've got

1140
01:05:10,760 --> 01:05:15,160
Speaker 1: really good education. Why are you watching this? Oh? Everybody

1141
01:05:15,160 --> 01:05:18,520
Speaker 1: watches it. But Trump is a reality star, that's all

1142
01:05:18,560 --> 01:05:21,200
Speaker 1: he is. I want to hear more about Tonny and Belinda.

1143
01:05:21,320 --> 01:05:25,840
Speaker 1: I know. Meanwhile, the Chinese are graduating five thousand engineers

1144
01:05:25,840 --> 01:05:27,840
Speaker 1: a year and we're screwing around with who through a

1145
01:05:27,840 --> 01:05:30,560
Speaker 1: cupcake at who won the party bus? But so, so,

1146
01:05:30,920 --> 01:05:34,720
Speaker 1: what are your predictions if the Republicans win when both Houses.

1147
01:05:35,080 --> 01:05:38,760
Speaker 1: Everything shuts down except for executive orders. The Democratic Party

1148
01:05:38,800 --> 01:05:41,880
Speaker 1: starts to eat poor Joe Biden for electoral failure. The

1149
01:05:41,920 --> 01:05:44,680
Speaker 1: Republicans get very little done and overplay their hand and

1150
01:05:44,720 --> 01:05:47,160
Speaker 1: make some mistakes, though the map for them in the

1151
01:05:47,200 --> 01:05:50,560
Speaker 1: center is pretty damn good in and both parties have

1152
01:05:50,560 --> 01:05:53,280
Speaker 1: a big, crazy open primary that will erupt all through

1153
01:05:53,320 --> 01:05:58,880
Speaker 1: particularly the the second third quarter of and people on

1154
01:05:58,960 --> 01:06:01,400
Speaker 1: the left will be looking up real estate in Portugal

1155
01:06:01,480 --> 01:06:04,040
Speaker 1: and Australia. That's why the margin in the House is

1156
01:06:04,080 --> 01:06:06,520
Speaker 1: so important. I think one of the fundamental mistakes of

1157
01:06:06,560 --> 01:06:09,160
Speaker 1: this election is a lot of Democratic donors thought, oh,

1158
01:06:09,240 --> 01:06:11,760
Speaker 1: the House is lost, so I'm not gonna send money.

1159
01:06:12,080 --> 01:06:14,440
Speaker 1: You know what, Losing the House by five or ten

1160
01:06:14,520 --> 01:06:18,600
Speaker 1: seats is recoverable in two years. Losing it by twenty

1161
01:06:18,680 --> 01:06:21,480
Speaker 1: five or thirty much much more difficult. I agree. The

1162
01:06:21,480 --> 01:06:25,400
Speaker 1: Republicans absolutely will overplay their hand because McCarthy is a

1163
01:06:25,440 --> 01:06:28,520
Speaker 1: prisoner of the extremists in his own party. He's shown

1164
01:06:28,600 --> 01:06:31,280
Speaker 1: no capacity to stand up to them, and he's cozy

1165
01:06:31,360 --> 01:06:33,720
Speaker 1: enough to Marjorie Taylor Green, Oh to all of them.

1166
01:06:34,080 --> 01:06:38,160
Speaker 1: He can't we got beat. You know, the brave tan

1167
01:06:38,240 --> 01:06:40,560
Speaker 1: who voted for impeachment are all gone except for one.

1168
01:06:41,320 --> 01:06:43,800
Speaker 1: So the Republican casually isn't there. You got the damn

1169
01:06:43,840 --> 01:06:48,960
Speaker 1: d trip going in and murdering UH Michigan, Um Peter Meyer,

1170
01:06:49,000 --> 01:06:51,960
Speaker 1: who is a complete patriot and hero because they're doing

1171
01:06:51,960 --> 01:06:53,720
Speaker 1: anything to win a primary. Now they may get a

1172
01:06:53,800 --> 01:06:57,680
Speaker 1: nut in that district. So anyway, it it's gonna be

1173
01:06:57,720 --> 01:07:00,720
Speaker 1: grim in the Republican House conference. There's still saying people

1174
01:07:00,720 --> 01:07:03,600
Speaker 1: on the Sentate side, and Liz will let you have

1175
01:07:03,680 --> 01:07:07,200
Speaker 1: the last word. Um. Look, I agree with both what

1176
01:07:07,400 --> 01:07:10,920
Speaker 1: Mike and Brian said, and if I were a Republican

1177
01:07:11,200 --> 01:07:15,680
Speaker 1: I really would fear. Um the prospect of overreach and

1178
01:07:15,720 --> 01:07:18,840
Speaker 1: the fact that they are already talking about impeached and

1179
01:07:18,920 --> 01:07:22,360
Speaker 1: Joe Biden for nothing, frankly, other than being a Democrat

1180
01:07:22,640 --> 01:07:25,800
Speaker 1: should be a real warning sign to them. So my

1181
01:07:25,880 --> 01:07:27,880
Speaker 1: prediction is that it is going to be an ugly

1182
01:07:28,040 --> 01:07:31,480
Speaker 1: couple of years, but um that there probably will be

1183
01:07:31,520 --> 01:07:34,560
Speaker 1: some electoral backlash for them if they overplay their hands.

1184
01:07:34,800 --> 01:07:40,160
Speaker 1: All right, I'm gonna go look for some tims. Always

1185
01:07:40,200 --> 01:07:42,560
Speaker 1: great to talk to you all. Thank you so much

1186
01:07:42,600 --> 01:07:45,080
Speaker 1: for being so generous with your time. Liz, Brian and

1187
01:07:45,120 --> 01:07:52,240
Speaker 1: Mike and Uh let's stay in touch. Thanks. Thanks Yea.

1188
01:07:57,400 --> 01:07:59,640
Speaker 1: Next Question with Katie Kurik is the production of My

1189
01:07:59,760 --> 01:08:03,680
Speaker 1: Heart Media and Katie Curric Media. The executive producers Army,

1190
01:08:03,880 --> 01:08:08,400
Speaker 1: Katie Curic, and Courtney Litz. The supervising producer is Lauren Hansen.

1191
01:08:08,720 --> 01:08:13,320
Speaker 1: Associate producers Derek Clements and Adriana Fasio. The show is

1192
01:08:13,440 --> 01:08:17,200
Speaker 1: edited and mixed by Derrick Clements. For more information about

1193
01:08:17,240 --> 01:08:20,160
Speaker 1: today's episode, or to sign up for my morning newsletter,

1194
01:08:20,200 --> 01:08:23,080
Speaker 1: Wake Up Paul, go to Katie Currek dot com. You

1195
01:08:23,120 --> 01:08:25,760
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1196
01:08:25,960 --> 01:08:29,320
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1197
01:08:29,439 --> 01:08:33,280
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1198
01:08:33,640 --> 01:08:35,839
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